RS-14-151, Dresden, Units 2 and 3 - Attachment 4, Kld TR-634, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 4

Dresden, Units 2 and 3 - Attachment 4, Kld TR-634, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 4

ML14141A062
Person / Time
Site:	Dresden
Issue date:	04/23/2014
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Document Control Desk, NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
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ML14141A046	List: ML14141A047 ML14141A048 ML14141A049 ML14141A050 ML14141A051 ML14141A053 ML14141A054 ML14141A055 ML14141A056 ML14141A057 ML14141A058 ML14141A059 ML14141A060 ML14141A061 ML14141A062 ML14141A063 ML14141A064 ML14141A065 ML14141A066 ML14141A067 RS-14-151, Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 4 of 5 RS-14-151, Braidwood, Byron, Clinton, Dresden, and Peach Bottom - 10 CFR 50, Appendix E - Evacuation Time Estimate Analysis Information RS-14-151, Braidwood, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 1, Kld TR-635, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 1 of 4 RS-14-151, Braidwood, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 1, Kld TR-635, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 4 RS-14-151, Braidwood, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 1, Kld TR-635, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 4 RS-14-151, Braidwood, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 1, Kld TR-635, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 4 of 4 RS-14-151, Byron, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 2, Kld TR-637, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 1 of 4 RS-14-151, Byron, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 2, Kld TR-637, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 4 RS-14-151, Byron, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 2, Kld TR-637, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 4 RS-14-151, Byron, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 2, Kld TR-637, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 4 of 4 RS-14-151, Clinton, Unit 1 - Attachment 3, Kld TR-632, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 1 of 3 RS-14-151, Clinton, Unit 1 - Attachment 3, Kld TR-632, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 3 RS-14-151, Clinton, Unit 1 - Attachment 3, Kld TR-632, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 3 RS-14-151, Dresden, Units 2 and 3 - Attachment 4, Kld TR-634, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 1 of 4 RS-14-151, Dresden, Units 2 and 3 - Attachment 4, Kld TR-634, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 4 RS-14-151, Dresden, Units 2 and 3 - Attachment 4, Kld TR-634, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 4 RS-14-151, Dresden, Units 2 and 3 - Attachment 4, Kld TR-634, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 4 of 4 RS-14-151, Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 1 of 5 RS-14-151, Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 5 RS-14-151, Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 5 RS-14-151, Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 5 of 5
References
RS-14-151 KLD TR-634, Rev. 0
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8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles.

The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, pre-schools, day camps, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; (3) homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:

• Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. It is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes for schools buses and 120 minutes for transit dependent buses extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.

Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the DRE EPZ indicates that schoolchildren will be evacuated to reception centers, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at the reception centers.As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency.

Therefore, children are evacuated to reception centers. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.

This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.

This study assumes that pre-schools and day camps are also evacuated to reception centers and parents will pick up these children at the reception centers.Dresden Generating Station 8-1 KID Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:* Estimate demand for transit service* Estimate time to perform all transit functions* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the reception centers 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service based on the percentage of households with no vehicle available.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:* Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.

For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.

The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.

However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends (IES, 1981). Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xlO) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.[20 + (2 x 10)] + 40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Dresden Generating Station 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 674 people. Therefore, a total of 23 bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the DRE EPZ: P = (EPZ Population

+ Average HH Size of EPZ) x % of HH with 0 Vehicles x Average HH Size of HH with 0 Vehicles P = (106,100 + 2.48) x 2.89% x 1.09 = 1,348 B = (0.5 x P) + 30 = 23 According to the telephone survey results, 2.89% of households do not have access to a vehicle (Figure F-2); there are 1.09 people per house -on average -in households with no vehicles available.

8.2 School Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school, pre-school, and day camp population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all facilities within the EPZ for the 2012 school year.The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

• No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and pre-schools and 50 for day camps, middle and high schools.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.It is recommended that the counties in the EPZ introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot, to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated.

In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).

Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Table 8-3 presents a list of the reception centers for each school, pre-school, and day camp in the EPZ. Children will be transported to these reception centers where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.Dresden Generating Station 8-3 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 8.3 Medical Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. A total of 685 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.

The current census for each facility was provided by Exelon and by county emergency management personnel.

The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can be accommodated per ambulance trip; the number of wheelchair bus runs assumes 15 wheelchairs per trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating children (if schools, pre-schools, or day camps are in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.

In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat "inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the reception center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.

The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Activity:

Mobilize Drivers (A->B--C)Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.Dresden Generating Station 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Activity:

Board Passengers (C--D)A loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is assumed.For multiple stops along a pick-up route, (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

2v T=t+B+t=B+2t=B+--, a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.

The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is: a a Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:

Travel to EPZ Boundary (D--E)School, Pre-School, and Day Camp Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by Exelon and are summarized in Table 8-5.Also included in the table is the number of buses needed to evacuate schools, pre-schools, day camps, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, homebound special needs population (discussed below in Section 8.5), and correctional facilities (discussed below in Section 8.6).These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate all transit-dependent people in a single wave.The buses servicing the schools, pre-schools, and day camps are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate reception center. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes Dresden Generating Station 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route.The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: Average Speed(-)hhr Z1 length o f link i (ai) 60 ain.Delay on link i (min.) + length of link i (mi.) x0 min.current speed on link i mi. 1 hr.The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools, pre-schools, and day camps in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school, pre-school and day camp evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the Reception Center was computed assuming an average speed of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 55 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in Illinois is 55 mph.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools, pre-schools, and day camps in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the Reception Center (R.C.). The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A4>B-C, C->D, and D->E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 56 = 2:45 for Aux Sable Elementary School, in good weather, rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes).

The average ETE for a single-wave evacuation of schools, pre-schools and day camps is 25 minutes less than the 9 0 th percentile ETE for the general population for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) during Scenario 6 conditions.

The evacuation time to the Reception Center is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E->F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Dresden Generating Station 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.

As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), nearly all (97%)evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 120 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. The state and county emergency plans do not define routes or assembly points to service the transit dependent population.

The 14 bus routes shown graphically in Figure 8-2 and Figure 8-3 and described in Table 8-10 were designed as part of this study to service population centers within Sub-areas of the EPZ. It is assumed that residents will walk to and congregate along these routes, and that they can arrive at the routes to be picked up within the 120 minute bus mobilization time during good weather (130 minutes and 140 minutes in rain and snow, respectively).

As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop. Longer pickup times of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow, respectively.

The travel distance along the respective routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.

Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school, preschool and camp evacuation.

Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the bus route servicing Sub-area 1 is computed as 120 + 56 + 30 = 3:30 for good weather, rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes. Here, 56 minutes is the time to travel 16.5 miles at 17.7 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 120 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.

Activity:

Travel to Reception Centers (E--F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.

Assumed bus speeds of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity:

Passengers Leave Bus (F-->G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.Dresden Generating Station 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Activity:

Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G-QC)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the reception center.The second-wave ETE for the bus route servicing Sub-area 1 is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at reception center at 3:59 in good weather (3:30 to exit EPZ + 29 minute travel time to reception center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second-wave service along the route: 29 minutes (equal to travel time to reception center) + 18 minutes (16.5 miles @ 55 mph to return to the start of the route) + 18 minutes (16.5 miles @ 55 mph to traverse the route providing second-wave bus service)=

65 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 3:30 + 0:29 + 0:15 + 1:05 + 0:30 = 5:50 (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a one-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is 25 minutes longer than the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) during Scenario 6 conditions.

The two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 40 minutes longer on average than the ETE for the general population at the 9 0 th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ during Scenario 6 conditions.

Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except: Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients.* Wheelchair buses can accommodate 15 patients.* Ambulances can accommodate 2 patients.* Loading times of 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes per patient are assumed for ambulatory patients, wheelchair bound patients, and bedridden patients, respectively.

Table 8-4 indicates that 17 bus runs, 20 wheelchair bus runs, and 10 ambulance runs are needed to service all of the medical facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the counties and individual medical facilities can collectively provide 886 buses, 52 vans, 63 wheelchair Dresden Generating Station 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 buses, and 72 ambulances.

Thus, there are ample resources to evacuate the medical facility population in a single wave.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes (100 in rain and 110 in snow). Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.

Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90-minute timeframe.

Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary.

The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses, wheelchair buses, and ambulances at capacity is assumed such that the maximum loading times for buses, wheelchair buses, and ambulances are 30 minutes, 75 minutes, and 30 minutes, respectively.

All ETE are rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the calculation of ETE for Walnut Grove Retirement Community with 86 ambulatory residents during good weather is: ETE: 90 + 1 x 30 + 5 = 125 min. or 2:05 It is assumed that the medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities outside of the EPZ. Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis.8.5 Special Needs Population The special needs population registered within the EPZ was provided by county emergency management personnel.

There are 433 homebound special needs people within the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate.

Using the same breakdown (approximately 60%ambulatory, 37% wheelchair-bound, and 3% bed-ridden) for medical facilities within the EPZ (Table 8-4), 260 special needs people require a bus, 161 would require a wheelchair accessible vehicle, and 12 would require an ambulance.

ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.

The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle.It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory and wheelchair bound households are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Bus and wheelchair bus speeds approximate 20 mph between households and ambulance speeds approximate 30 mph in good weather (10% slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minutes were used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow). Loading times of 5 minutes per person are assumed for ambulatory and wheelchair bound people and 15 minutes per person Dresden Generating Station 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 are assumed for bedridden people. The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 260 ambulatory households need to be serviced.

Given a bus capacity of 30 people, 9 buses are needed to service the population.

While only 9 buses are needed from a capacity standpoint, if 44 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require at most 6 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 44 buses are deployed, each with about 6 stops, to service a total of 260 HH.2. ETE is equal to the total time to complete the following activities:

a. Bus arrive at the first pickup location:

90 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:

5 @ 9 minutes = 45 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:

5 @ 5 minutes = 25 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:

12 minutes (5 miles @ 24.1 mph).ETE: 90 + 5 + 45 + 25 + 12 = 3:00 rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes Table 8-5 indicates that there are sufficient transportation resources available in the EPZ to evacuate the medical facilities and the homebound special needs population simultaneously.

The average ETE for a single wave evacuation of the homebound special needs population is approximately 20 minutes longer than the general population ETE at the 90th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03).8.6 Correctional Facilities As detailed in Table E-7, there are two correctional facilities within the EPZ -the Grundy County Jail and the Will County Juvenile Detention Center. A total of 12 buses are needed to evacuate these facilities, based on a capacity of 30 inmates per bus. Mobilization time is assumed to be 90 minutes (100 minutes in rain and 110 minutes in snow). It is estimated that it takes 60 minutes to load the inmates (2 minutes per inmate) onto a bus, and that 12 buses can be loaded in parallel.

Thus, total loading time is estimated at approximately 60 minutes. Using GIS software, the shortest route from each facility to the EPZ boundary, traveling away from the plant was calculated.

For example, the calculation of ETE for Grundy County Jail with 65 inmates during good weather is: ETE: 90 + 2 x 30 + 8 = 158 min. or 2:40 (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes)Here, 8 minutes is the time to travel 5.7 miles at 41.6 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 150 minutes. Table 8-18 summarizes the ETE for the correctional facilities.

Dresden Generating Station 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 (Subsequent Wave)A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Reception Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service Time A--> B Driver Mobilization B--C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C-->D Passengers Board the Bus D-+E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E-->F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZ F->G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Dresden Generating Station 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Transit Dependent Bus Routes]- Sub-area 1-Sub-area 2 SSub-area 3Sub-area S l.- Sub-area 6)- Sub-area 7)0- Sub-area 8 S2Sub-area:

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-:I -t_4t -_t -0 5V M-e j-Legend* DRE I Sub-area.2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Shadow Region Date 4/12/2014

--a" ghr 55mBlit-W.aa I Figure 8-3. DRE Transit Dependent Bus Routes 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates Average6 Pecn Pecn Size Tota Pepl Pouato Ave.g 0H wit Tota H fo6 .6 Pepl Esiae Rqiig eurn 201 SP *

• Siz 201 *P No wit No wit No Rqiig Rc ulc Pbi Poplaio in Hoshod Veice Veice Veice Trnpr Pecntg Transit Transit Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-2. School, Pre-School, and Day Camp Population Demand Estimates Grundy County 1 Aux Sable Elementary School 638 10 1 Minooka Elementary School 607 9 1 Minooka High School Central Campus 2,471 25 1 Minooka High School South Campus 1,235 25 1 Minooka Intermediate School 839 17 1 Minooka Junior High School 906 19 1 Minooka Primary Center 330 5 2 Grace Baptist Academy 10 1 2 Saratoga Elementary School 762 11 5 Grundy Area Vocational Center 575 12 5 Immaculate Conception School 218 4 5 Morris High School 953 20 5 Shabbona Junior High School 371 8 7 Coal City Elementary School 328 5 10 Braceville Elementary School 176 3 10 Coal City High School 652 14 10 Coal City Intermediate School 315 7 10 Coal City Middle School 488 10 Shadow Region 1 White Oak Elementary 842 13 Grundy County Subtotal 12,716 218 Will County 12 Channahon Junior High School 387 8 12 N.B. Galloway Elementary School 504 8 12 Pioneer Path School 309 5 12 Three Rivers School 381 6 13 Crossroads Elementary School 601 9 13 Heritage Trail School 504 8 13 Hofer Elementary School 416 6 13 Holy Family School 338 5 13 Joliet Christian School 79 2 1 Facility is located just beyond the EPZ boundary, however, the facility will evacuate as per county plans.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 13 Joliet Junior College 4,656 U 13 Lewis University 48 02 13 Orenic Intermediate School 960 20 13 Trinity Christian School & Preschool 542 8 13 Troy Middle School 895 18 13 Troy-Shorewood Elementary School 515 8 13 Walnut Trails Elementary 491 8 14 Elwood Community Consolidated School 434 9 15 L.J. Stevens Intermediate School 400 8 15 St. Rose School 144 3 15 Trinity Services Island City 25 1 15 Wilmington High School 474 10 15 Wilmington Middle School 330 7 16 Reed-Custer Intermediate School 508 11 Shadow Region 3 Bruning Elementary School 251 4 Shadow Region 3 Reed-Custer High School 595 12 Shadow Region3 Reed-Custer Middle School 391 8 Region'Shadow Region 3 Reed-Custer Primary School 295 5 Shadow Region3 Troy Craughwell Elementary School 513 8 Will County Subtotal 15,996 20S Grundy County 1 Minooka United Methodist Church Pre- 19 1 School 1 Royal Child Care and Learning Center 83 2 2 Step by Step Child Care Center -Morris 149 3 2 Two Rivers Head Start 34 1 4 Boy Scouts of America 1,000 20 5 Methodist Pre-school 20 1 5 Morris Christian School 44 1 5 Prairieland Kids Day Care 40 1 2 As discussed in Section 3.1.2, Joliet Junior College and Lewis University are commuter colleges.

Students will evacuate in personal vehicles.3 Facility is located just beyond the EPZ boundary, however, the facility will evacuate as per county plans.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 8 Rainbow Preschool 38 1 10 Coal City Early Childhood Center 351 6 10 Kid's Korner 24 1 10 Step by Step Child Care Center -Diamond 103 2 Grundy County Subtotal 1,905 40 Will County 12 Lighthouse Kids, Inc. 134 2 13 Catholic Charities Head Start 190 3 13 Chesterbrook Academy 163 3 13 Debbie's Daycare Center, Inc. 83 2 13 Garden Gate Montessori 80 2 13 Joliet Junior College Day Care 40 1 13 Shorewood Early Learning and Day Care 114 Center 15 Discovery Schoolhouse 37 1 15 Grace Lutheran Preschool 30 1 16 Shepherd's Flock Pre-School 30 1 Shadow Step by Step Child Care Center -Region 3 Braidwood 129 2 Will rn, antu, C,,h. I nl I nan 7n Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-3. School, Pre-School, and Day Camp Reception Centers Faiit am ecpio ene Aux Sable Elementary School Channahon Junior High School Crossroads Elementary School Heritage Trail School Hofer Elementary School Holy Family School Joliet Christian School Minooka Elementary School Minooka High School Central Campus Minooka High School South Campus Minooka Intermediate School Carl Sandburg High School Minooka Junior High School Minooka Primary Center N.B. Galloway Elementary School Orenic Intermediate School Pioneer Path School Three Rivers School Trinity Christian School & Preschool Troy Craughwell Elementary School Troy Middle School Troy-Shorewood Elementary School Walnut Trails Elementary Grace Baptist Academy Grundy Area Vocational Center Immaculate Conception School Morris High School Illinois Valley Community Morrs Hih ScoolCollege Saratoga Elementary School Shabbona Junior High School White Oak Elementary Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Failt Na eRcpinCne Bruning Elementary School Elwood Community Consolidated School L.J. Stevens Intermediate School Reed-Custer High School Reed-Custer Intermediate School Reed-Custer Middle School Kankakee Community College Reed-Custer Primary School St. Rose School Trinity Services Island City Wilmington High School Wilmington Middle School Braceville Elementary School Coal City Elementary School Coal City High School Coal City Intermediate School Coal City Middle School Catholic Charities Head Start Chesterbrook Academy Debbie's Daycare Center, Inc.Garden Gate Montessori Joliet Junior College Day Care Lighthouse Kids, Inc.Minooka United Methodist Church Pre-School Royal Child Care and Learning Center Shorewood Early Learning and Day Care Center Pontiac Township High School amps Carl Sandburg High School Methodist Pre-school Morris Christian School Illinois Valley Community Prairieland Kids Day Care College Step by Step Child Care Center -Morris Two Rivers Head Start Discovery Schoolhouse Grace Lutheran Preschool Kankakee Community College Shepherd's Flock Pre-School Boy Scouts of America Coal City Early Childhood Center Kid's Korner Raid'bowPres l Pontiac Township High School Rainbow Preschool Step by Step Child Care Center -Braidwood Step by Step Child Care Center -Diamond Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit Demand Wheel- Wheel-Sub- Cap- Current Ambu- chair Bed- Bus chair Bus Ambulance area Facility Name Municipality acity Census latory Bound ridden Runs Runs Runs GRUNDYCOUNTY 2 Walnut Grove Retirement Community Morris 123 123 86 37 0 3 3 0 Elliot Manor Morris 105 105 73 32 0 3 3 0 J Morris Hospital Morris 90 58 42 10 6 2 1 3 Grundy County Subtotal:

318 286 201 79 6 8 7 3 13 Alden Estates Shorewood 92 70 7 63 0 1 5 0 13 Timbers of Shorewood Shorewood 200 200 140 59 1 5 4 1 15 Island City Rehab Center Wilmington 171 129 64 53 12 3 4 6 Will County Subtotal:

463 39 921 1 17 5 1 3 13 7 Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Will 500 30 23 40 Grundy 80 8 6 2 LaSalle 31 3 2 5 Kendall 85 9 5 2 Kankakee 189 0 26 23 Island City Rehab Center 0 1 1 0 Timbers of Shorewood 1 1 0 0 Schools, Pre-Schools, Day Camps (Table 8-2): 483 0 0 0 Medical Facilities (Table 8-4): 17 0 20 10 Transit-Dependent Population (Table 8-10): 23 0 0 0 Homebound Special Needs (Table 8-17): 44 0 23 6 Correctional Facilities (Table 8-18): 12 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions Bus~Tl 1 Methodist Pre-school, Morris Christian School, Grundy County Jail 1259, 1251, 401, 1260, 400, 616, 617, 618, 383,391,392,965,64,65,66,1537 Morris Hospital, Grundy Area Vocational Center, Morris High 1271, 617, 618, 383, 391, 392, 965, 64, 65, 2 School, Shabbona Junior High School, 66,1537 Prairieland Kids Day Care, Elliot Manor 3 Reed-Custer High School, Reed-Custer 508,1453,510,509,511 Middle School 4 Shepherd's Flock Pre-School 506, 476, 477, 507, 508, 1453, 510, 509, 511 5 Crossroads Elementary School 1157, 732, 782 6 Joliet Junior College Day Care, Will County Juvenile Detention Center 7 Catholic Charities Head Start 364, 365, 366, 367, 1529 8 Two Rivers Head Start, Step by Step 618,383,391,392,965,64,65,66,1537 Child Care Center -Morris 9 Saratoga Elementary School 392, 965, 64, 65, 66, 1537 380, 1282, 381, 382, 1276, 383, 391, 392, 10 Grace Baptist Academy96,4,5,6,13 965, 64, 65, 66, 1537 L.J. Stevens Intermediate School, Wilmington High School, St. Rose School, Island City Rehab Center, Wilmington Middle School, Trinity Services Island City, Grace Lutheran Preschool, Discovery Schoolhouse 13 Walnut Grove Retirement Community 622, 623, 648 349, 1214, 1213, 667, 665, 1531, 1533, 534, 15 Minoig School SuthaCamu, 58, 57, 56, 55, 54, 53, 52, 51, 50, 70, 49, 48, Transit Dependent -Sub-area 1478 47, 81 Minooka Elementary School, Minooka High School Central Campus, Minooka 1212, 665, 1531, 1533, 534, 58, 57, 56, 55, 16 Primary Center, Royal Child Care and 54, 53, 52, 51, 50, 70, 49, 48, 47, 81 Learning Center, Minooka United Methodist Church Pre-School Minooka Junior High School, Minooka 1224, 667, 665, 1531, 1533, 534, 58, 57, 56, Intermediate School 55, 54, 53, 52, 51, 50, 70, 49, 48, 47, 81 1216, 1214, 1213, 667, 665, 1531, 1533, 18 Aux Sable Elementary School 534, 58, 57, 56, 55, 54, 53, 52, 51, 50, 70, 49, 48, 47, 81 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Bus~* 0 S-Rout Node Trvre fro Rout Str0.19 Immaculate Conception School 1244,401,1260,400,616,617,618,383, 391,392,965,64,65,66,1537 20 Coal City Elementary School, Transit 1413,439,1414,440,502,441,407 Dependent

-Sub-area 7 21 Rainbow Preschool 405, 1310, 406, 407 22 Coal City Intermediate School 1411, 439, 1414, 440, 502, 441, 407 23 Coal City High School 440, 502, 441, 407 24 Braceville Elementary School, Transit 481,452,453,454,455 Dependent

-Sub-area 10 25 Coal City Middle School, Coal City 494,440,502,441,407 Early Childhood Center 26 Kid's Korner 1414, 440, 502, 441, 407 669, 668, 1227, 666, 1224, 667, 665, 1531, 28 Three Rivers School 1533, 534, 58, 57, 56, 55, 54, 53, 52, 51, 50, 70, 49, 48, 47, 81 Channahon Junior High School, N.B. 678, 356, 357, 358, 359, 360, 21, 1355, 20, Galloway Elementary School 50, 70, 49, 48, 47, 81 30 Pioneer Path School, Lighthouse Kids, 354, 355, 356, 357, 358, 359, 360, 21, 1355, Inc. 20, 50, 70, 49, 48, 47, 81 32 Holy Family School 731, 1157, 732, 782 33 Joliet Christian School 120, 121, 122, 123, 285, 124, 127, 128, 936 1147, 1144, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 285, 34 Troy-Shorewood Elementary School 14 2,18 3 124, 127, 128, 936 Troy Middle School, Orenic 728,734,1154,733 35____ Intermediate School Hofer Elementary School, Trinity 36 Christian School & Preschool, 1143, 1142, 1140, 733___ Chesterbrook Academy 38 Garden Gate Montessori 734, 1154, 733 Shorewood Early Learning and Day 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 285, 124, 127, Care Center 128, 936 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 40 Walnut Trails Elementary28,1417,2,93 285, 124, 127, 128, 936 41 Debbie's Daycare Center, Inc. 1158, 1157, 732, 782 956, 950, 951, 933, 1528, 123, 285, 124, 42 Heritage Trail School12,2893 127, 128, 936 47 Timbers of Shorewood 730, 734, 1154, 733 Elwood Community Consolidated 1386,583,1385,568,569,570 School 50 Step by Step Child Care Center -513,514,515 50 Braidwood 51I , _514,_515 Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Rout Node Trvre fro Rout StrS.52 Reed-Custer Intermediate School 506, 444, 443, 35, 34, 45, 46, 33, 32, 31, 30, 29, 1331 1410, 438, 1411, 439, 1414, 440, 502,441, 68 Diamond 407, 408, 409, 410, 1437, 411, 889, 1312, 1018, 1042, 1041, 1040 416, 417, 418, 419, 420, 421, 422,404, 405, 71 Boy Scouts of America 11,46 0 1310, 406, 407 82 Alden Estates 1155, 731, 1142, 1140, 733 444, 506, 476, 477, 507, 508, 1453, 510, 95 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 16 509,4511 509, 511 97 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 15 532, 533, 1408, 596, 597, 598, 509, 511 1307, 403, 402, 638, 1259, 626, 627, 628, 98 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 5 1265 1265 375, 376, 377, 378, 379, 380, 1282, 381, 99 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 2 382, 1276, 383, 618, 617, 1271, 619, 620, 621, 622, 623, 648 100 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 6 718, 1168, 720, 102, 1187, 1188, 725 721, 722, 723, 724, 116, 730, 1155, 731, 101 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 13 (1) 17,73,72 1157, 732, 782 1236, 361, 362, 363, 1518, 953, 945, 946, 102 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 13 (2) 947,394 ,394 ,993,1 1 5 2,9 123 947, 948, 949, 950, 951, 933, 1528, 123 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 3, 35,312,545,565758 104 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 3, 359, 360, 910, 1236, 361, 362, 363, 364, Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 12 36,6,37 365, 366, 367 105 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 14 1581, 577, 1363, 570 106 Transit Dependent

-Sub-area 8 422, 404, 405, 1310, 406, 407 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-7. School, Pre-School, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather%fKUNU¥LJ LUJUI4 IT Aux Sable Elementary School 90 15 10.7 11.4 56 Braceville Elementary School 90 15 2.3 14.3 10 Coal City Elementary School 90 15 7.3 11.9 37 Coal City High School 90 15 6.3 10.3 37 Coal City Intermediate School 90 15 7.3 11.5 38 Coal City Middle School 90 15 6.8 13.7 30 Grace Baptist Academy 90 15 5.3 50.1 6 Grundy Area Vocational Center 90 15 5.3 49.5 6 Immaculate Conception School 90 15 5.5 42.7 8 Minooka Elementary School 90 15 9.4 14.2 40 Minooka High School Central Campus 90 15 9.4 14.2 40 Minooka High School South Campus 90 15 11.7 11.9 59 Minooka Intermediate School 90 15 9.5 11.7 49 Minooka Junior High School 90 15 9.1 11.7 47 Minooka Primary Center 90 15 9.1 15.9 34 Morris High School 90 15 5.4 49.5 7 Saratoga Elementary School 90 15 4.0 55.0 4 Shabbona Junior High School 90 15 5.2 49.5 6 White Oak Elementary 90 15 Located Outside EPZ 4_WILL COUNTY Bruning Elementary School 90 15 Located Outside EpZ 4 Channahon Junior High School 90 15 7.1 6.7 63 Crossroads Elementary School 90 15 0.8 37.6 1 22.9 33.5 32.9 35.6 35.5 35.6 37.3 37.5 37.5 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 37.5 37.3 37.5 40.2 25 37 36 39 39 39 41 41 41 25 25 25 25 25 25 41 41 41 44 i2381 26 22. 25 26.9 26 4 Facility is located just outside the EPZ; however, the facility will evacuate as per county plans. ETE for this facility is not included in the average for the EPZ.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 tiwooa Lommunity Lonsoliaateoa cnooi Ju. 3.1 '+3.U Heritage Trail School 90 15 2.9 10.8 16 Hofer Elementary School 90 15 1.4 6.2 13 Holy Family School 90 15 1.3 36.9 2 Joliet Christian School 90 15 2.9 29.7 6 L.J. Stevens Intermediate School 90 15 0.9 42.8 1 N.B. Galloway Elementary School 90 15 7.2 6.7 64 Orenic Intermediate School 90 15 1.4 2.4 34 Pioneer Path School 90 15 8.1 7.5 65 Reed-Custer High School 5 90 15 3.7 53.1 4 Reed-Custer Intermediate School 90 15 4.6 55.0 5 Reed-Custer Middle School 5 90 15 3.7 53.1 4 Reed-Custer Primary School 90 15 Located Outside EPZ St. Rose School 90 15 1.1 42.8 2 Three Rivers School 90 15 11.3 12.4 55 Trinity Christian School & Preschool 90 15 1.2 6.2 12 Trinity Services Island City 90 15 0.5 42.8 1 Troy Craughwell Elementary School 90 15 Located Outside EPZ Troy Middle School 90 15 1.3 2.4 32 Troy-Shorewood Elementary School 90 15 3.4 27.9 7 Walnut Trails Elementary 90 15 5.1 23.0 13 Wilmington High School 90 15 1.6 42.8 2 Wilmington Middle School 90 15 1.1 42.8 2 34.4 38 23.9 26 22.6 25 27.0 29 23.9 26 23.0 25 22.8 25 22.6 25 22.9 25 21.6 24 21.6 24 21.6 24 20.7 23 23.0 25 22.9 25 22.6 25 23.0 25 21.7 24 22.6 25 23.9 26 23.9 26 23.0 25 23.0 25 School Maximum: School Maximum for EPZ:.l A--ar-.Facility is located in the Shadow Region; however, the facility travels through the EPZ en route to its respective Reception Center.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Travel Dist. Travel Dist. To Time to EPZ Time from Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto EPZ Bdry ETE to Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.C. to R.C. R.C.Facility Time (min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)GRUNDY COUNTY Boy Scouts of America 90 15 9.5 27.1 21 Coal City Early Childhood Center 90 15 6.8 13.7 30 Kid's Korner 90 15 6.7 10.9 37 Methodist Pre-school 90 15 5.6 42.9 8 Minooka United Methodist Church Pre- 90 15 9.1 15.9 34 School Morris Christian School 90 15 5.6 42.9 8 Prairieland Kids Day Care 90 15 4.9 49.5 6 Rainbow Preschool 90 15 3.9 16.0 15 Royal Child Care and Learning Center 90 15 9.2 15.9 35 Step by Step Child Care Center -Diamond 90 15 8.2 18.4 27 Step by Step Child Care Center -Morris 90 15 [ 4.3 53.9 5lI Two Rivers Head Start 90 15 4.2 53.9 5 WILL COUNTY Catholic Charities Head Start 90 15 1.4 28.9 3 Chesterbrook Academy 90 15 1.7 6.1 17 Debbie's Daycare Center, Inc. 90 15 1.1 37.3 2 Discovery Schoolhouse 90 15 0.7 42.8 1 Garden Gate Montessori 90 15 0.2 2.3 5 Grace Lutheran Preschool 90 15 0.9 42.8 1 Joliet Junior College Day Care 90 15 2.8 8.8 19 Lighthouse Kids, Inc. 90 15 8.0 7.5 64 Shepherd's Flock Pre-School 90 15 5.9 45.0 8 36.4 40 35.6 39 35.6 39 37.3 41 22.9 25 37.5 41 37.3 41 35.6 39 22.9 25 35.6 39 37.5 41 37.3 41 22.9 25 22.6 25 26.9 29 23.0 25 22.6 25 23.0 25 22.8 25 22.9 25 21.6 24 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-8. School, Pre-School, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain rDi IIlV Dtit ITrITVv L t../ I I I Aux Sable Elementary School 100 20 10.7 16.0 40 Braceville Elementary School 100 20 2.3 5.1 27 Coal City Elementary School 100 20 7.3 9.8 45 Coal City High School 100 20 6.3 8.4 45 Coal City Intermediate School 100 20 7.3 9.9 44 Coal City Middle School 100 20 6.8 10.7 38 Grace Baptist Academy 100 20 5.3 45.6 7 Grundy Area Vocational Center 100 20 5.3 44.6 7 Immaculate Conception School 100 20 5.5 38.9 8 Minooka Elementary School 100 20 9.4 20.1 28 Minooka High School Central Campus 100 20 9.4 20.1 28 Minooka High School South Campus 100 20 11.7 17.2 41 Minooka Intermediate School 100 20 9.5 18.5 31 Minooka Junior High School 100 20 9.1 18.5 29 Minooka Primary Center 100 20 9.1 20.1 27 Morris High School 100 20 5.4 44.6 7 Saratoga Elementary School 100 20 4.0 50.0 5 Shabbona Junior High School 100 20 5.2 44.6 7 White Oak Elementary 100 20 Located Outside EPZ 6_WILL COUNTY Bruning Elementary School 100 20 Located Outside EPZ 6 Channahon Junior High School 100 20 7.1 13.8 31 Crossroads Elementary School 100 20 0.8 32.5 1 22.9 33.5 32.9 35.6 35.5 35.6 37.3 37.5 37.5 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 37.5 37.3 37.5 27 40 39 43 43 43 45 45 45 27 27 27 27 27 27 45 45 45 S40.2 48 23.8 29 22.9 27 26.9 32 6 Facility is located just outside the EPZ; however, the facility will evacuate as per county plans. ETE for this facility is not included in the average for the EPZ.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Elwood Community Consolidated School 100 20 3.1 40.0 5 Heritage Trail School 100 20 2.9 9.8 18 Hofer Elementary School 100 20 1.4 3.7 23 Holy Family School 100 20 1.3 32.2 2 Joliet Christian School 100 20 2.9 26.1 7 L.J. Stevens Intermediate School 100 20 0.9 38.8 1 N.B. Galloway Elementary School 100 20 7.2 13.8 31 Orenic Intermediate School 100 20 1.4 1.8 47 Pioneer Path School 100 20 8.1 15.1 32 Reed-Custer High School 7 100 20 3.7 49.3 5 Reed-Custer Intermediate School 100 20 4.6 50.0 6 Reed-Custer Middle School 7 100 20 3.7 49.3 5 Reed-Custer Primary School 100 20 Located Outside EPZ6 St. Rose School 100 20 1.1 38.8 2 Three Rivers School 100 20 11.3 19.7 34 Trinity Christian School & Preschool 100 20 1.2 3.7 20 Trinity Services Island City 100 20 0.5 38.8 1 Troy Craughwell Elementary School 100 20 Located Outside EPZ6 Troy Middle School 100 20 1.3 1.8 44 Troy-Shorewood Elementary School 100 20 3.4 22.2 9 Walnut Trails Elementary 100 20 5.1 22.0 14 Wilmington High School 100 20 1.6 38.8 2 Wilmington Middle School 100 20 1.1 38.8 1 2 School Maximum for EPZ: 34.4 41 23.9 29 22.6 27 27.0 32 23.9 29 23.0 28 22.8 27 22.6 27 22.9 27 21.6 26 21.6 26 21.6 26 20.7 25 23.0 28 22.9 27 22.6 27 23.0 28 21.7 26 22.6 27 23.9 29 23.9 29 23.0 28 23.0 28 School Maximum: Crk#%nn Auglr~fm.Crhkud Aunuftm En~ VD7-7 Facility is located in the Shadow Region; however, the facility travels through the EPZ en route to its respective Reception Center.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Trve Dit Trve Dist To Tim to .. Tim fro GRUNDY COUNTY Boy Scouts of America 100 20 9.5 20.5 28 Coal City Early Childhood Center 100 20 6.8 10.7 38 Kid's Korner 100 20 6.7 9.0 45 Methodist Pre-school 100 20 5.6 38.9 9 Minooka United Methodist Church Pre-School 100 20 9.1 20.1 27 Morris Christian School 100 20 5.6 38.9 9 Prairieland Kids Day Care 100 20 4.9 44.6 7 Rainbow Preschool 100 20 3.9 11.8 20 Royal Child Care and Learning Center 100 20 9.2 20.1 27 Step by Step Child Care Center -100 20 8.2 15.1 33 Diamond Step by Step Child Care Center -Morris 100 20 4.3 47.4 5 Two Rivers Head Start 100 20 4.2 47.4 5 , WILL COUNTY Catholic Charities Head Start 100 20 1.4 26.7 3 Chesterbrook Academy 100 20 1.7 3.7 27 Debbie's Daycare Center, Inc. 100 20 1.1 32.4 2 Discovery Schoolhouse 100 20 0.7 38.8 1 Garden Gate Montessori 100 20 0.2 1.7 7 Grace Lutheran Preschool 100 20 0.9 38.8 1 Joliet Junior College Day Care 100 20 2.8 9.1 19 Lighthouse Kids, Inc. 100 20 8.0 15.1 32 Shepherd's Flock Pre-School 100 20 5.9 41.7 8 36.4 35.6 35.6 37.3 22.9 37.5 37.3 35.6 22.9 35.6 37.5 37.3 22.9 22.6 26.9 23.0 22.6 23.0 22.8 22.9 21.6 44 43 43 45 27 45 45 43 27 43 45 45 27 27 32 28 27 28 27 27 26 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-9. School, Pre-School, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Travel D~is. Tae Dist.T iet iefo Aux Sable Elementary School 110 25 10.7 15.1 42 Braceville Elementary School 110 25 2.3 4.3 32 Coal City Elementary School 110 25 7.3 6.6 66 Coal City High School 110 25 6.3 5.8 65 Coal City Intermediate School 110 25 7.3 6.4 68 Coal City Middle School 110 25 6.8 7.3 56 Grace Baptist Academy 110 25 5.3 41.2 8 Grundy Area Vocational Center 110 25 5.3 40.3 8 Immaculate Conception School 110 25 5.5 35.3 9 Minooka Elementary School 110 25 9.4 16.3 35 Minooka High School Central Campus 110 25 9.4 16.3 35 Minooka High School South Campus 110 25 11.7 16.5 42 Minooka Intermediate School 110 25 9.5 16.7 34 Minooka Junior High School 110 25 9.1 16.7 33 Minooka Primary Center 110 25 9.1 16.3 33 Morris High School 110 25 5.4 40.3 8 Saratoga Elementary School 110 25 4.0 45.0 5 Shabbona Junior High School 110 25 5.2 40.3 8 White Oak Elementary 110 25 Located Outside EPZ 8 WILL COUNTY 22.9 33.5 32.9 35.6 35.5 35.6 37.3 37.5 37.5 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 37.5 37.3 37.5 31 45 44 47 47 47 50 50 50 30 31 31 31 31 31 50 50 50 40.2 54 Bruning Elementary School 110 25 Located Outside EPZ 8 2A 23.8 32 Channahon Junior High School 110 25 7.1 10.0 43 3:00 22.9 31 Crossroads Elementary School 110 25 0.8 30.8 2 2:20 26.9 36 8 Facility is located just outside the EPZ; however, the facility will evacuate as per county plans. ETE for this facility is not included in the average for the EPZ.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 tiwooa t-ommuniLty tonsoiioatea Pcnool iLU z -.1 ..D Heritage Trail School 110 25 2.9 10.2 17 Hofer Elementary School 110 25 1.4 3.9 22 Holy Family School 110 25 1.3 30.2 3 Joliet Christian School 110 25 2.9 20.2 9 L.J. Stevens Intermediate School 110 25 0.9 34.3 2 N.B. Galloway Elementary School 110 25 7.2 10.0 43 Orenic Intermediate School 110 25 1.4 1.8 47 Pioneer Path School 110 25 8.1 10.9 45 Reed-Custer High School 9 110 25 3.7 41.9 5 Reed-Custer Intermediate School 110 25 4.6 45.0 6 Reed-Custer Middle School 9 110 25 3.7 41.9 5 Reed-Custer Primary School 110 25 Located Outside EPZ 8 St. Rose School 110 25 1.1 34.3 2 Three Rivers School 110 25 11.3 18.4 37 Trinity Christian School & Preschool 110 25 1.2 3.9 18 Trinity Services Island City 110 25 0.5 34.3 1 Troy Craughwell Elementary School 110 25 Located Outside EPZs Troy Middle School 110 25 1.3 1.8 44 Troy-Shorewood Elementary School 110 25 3.4 17.5 12 Walnut Trails Elementary 110 25 5.1 19.4 16 Wilmington High School 110 25 1.6 34.3 3 Wilmington Middle School 110 25 1.1 34.3 2 School Maximum for EPZ:-------------------------

--a.23.9 22.6 27.0 23.9 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.9 21.6 21.6 21.6 20.7 23.0 22.9 22.6 23.0 21.7 22.6 23.9 23.9 23.0 23.0 40: 32 30 36 32 31 30 30 31 29 29 29 28 31 31 30 31 29 30 32 32 31 31 School Maximum: School Average: acI II oo VlIdC r rl l V.: Facility is located in the Shadow Region; however, the facility travels through the EPZ en route to its respective Reception Center.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Trve Dit Travel.Dit T.o Tim to .Z Tim from Moiizto Tim 9dr Spe Bd.9 9T 9.C to ..C R GRUNDY COUNTY Boy Scouts of America 110 25 9.5 14.4 40 Coal City Early Childhood Center 110 25 6.8 7.3 56 Kid's Korner 110 25 6.7 6.0 67 Methodist Pre-school 110 25 5.6 35.4 10 Minooka United Methodist Church Pre- 1 School 110 25 9.1 16.3 33 Morris Christian School 110 25 5.6 35.4 10 Prairieland Kids Day Care 110 25 4.9 40.3 7 Rainbow Preschool 110 25 3.9 7.9 30 Royal Child Care and Learning Center 110 25 9.2 16.3 34 Step by Step Child Care Center -110 25 8.2 10.7 46 Diamond Step by Step Child Care Center -Morris 110 25 4.3 43.0 6 Two Rivers Head Start 110 25 4.2 43.0 6 WILL COUNTY Catholic Charities Head Start 110 25 1.4 29.4 3 Chesterbrook Academy 110 25 1.7 3.9 26 Debbie's Daycare Center, Inc. 110 25 1.1 30.4 2 Discovery Schoolhouse 110 25 0.7 34.3 1 Garden Gate Montessori 110 25 0.2 1.8 7 Grace Lutheran Preschool 110 25 0.9 34.3 2 Joliet Junior College Day Care 110 25 2.8 6.9 24 Lighthouse Kids, Inc. 110 25 8.0 10.9 44 Shepherd's Flock Pre-School 110 25 5.9 36.6 10 36.4 49 35.6 47 35.6 47 37.3 50 22.9 31 37.5 50 37.3 50 35.6 47 22.9 31 35.6 47 37.5 50 37.3 50 22.9 31 22.6 30 26.9 36 23.0 31 22.6 30 23.0 31 22.8 30 22.9 31 21.6 29 Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 8-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes No ofLnt Rot Bue Rout Decito (m.Sub-area 1 3 Picks up evacuees along US-6 East from the intersection of Brisbin Road to Ridge Road North to 1-80 East to the EPZ boundary.

Travels to the Reception Center located at Carl Sandburg High School.16.5 Picks up evacuees along US-6 West from the intersection of Brisbin Road to the Sub-area 2 1 EPZ boundary.

Travels to the Reception Center located at Illinois Valley 8.4 Community College.Picks up evacuees along McKinley Woods Road North from the intersection of Sub-area 3 1 West Woodland Court to US-6 East to the EPZ boundary.

Travels to the 10.4 Reception Center located at Carl Sandburg High School.Picks up evacuees along IL-47 North from the Sub-area boundary at the Illinois Sub-area 5 2 River to East Benton Street to Spruce Street to East Jefferson Street/ Fremont 2.8 Avenue to Ottawa Street to the EPZ boundary.

Travels to the Reception Center located at Illinois Valley Community College.Picks up evacuees along Ridge Road North from the interchange with 1-80 to the Sub-area 6 1 EPZ boundary.

Travels to the Reception Center located at Carl Sandburg High 6.0 School.Picks up evacuees along Dresden Road South from the Sub-area boundary to Sub-area 7 1 East North Street to North Broadway Street to IL-113 West to the EPZ boundary.

11.2 Travels to the Reception Center located at Pontiac Township High School.Picks up evacuees along IL-47 North from the intersection of IL-113 to Jefferson Sub-area 8 1 Street/ Fremont Avenue to Ottawa Street to the EPZ boundary.

Travels to the 9.4 Reception Center located at Illinois Valley Community College.Picks up evacuees along Berta Road South from the intersection of IL-113 to Sub-area 10 1 Division Street East Mitchell Street South to IL-53 South to the EPZ boundary.

7.4 Travels to the Reception Center located at Pontiac Township High School.8-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 No. ofLnt Rot Bue Rot Decito m.Sub-area 12 2 Picks up evacuees along US-6 East from the intersection of West Bridge Street to the EPZ boundary.

Travels to the Reception Center located at Carl Sandburg High School.8.6 Picks up evacuees along Shepley Road East from the Kendall Will County Line to Sub-area 13 (1) 3 River Road North to Black Road East to the EPZ boundary.

Travels to the 8.4 Reception Center located at Carl Sandburg High School.Picks up evacuees along US-6 East to Empress Road/ Houbolt Road to US-52 Sub-area 13 (2) 4 West to IL-59 North to the EPZ boundary.

Travels to the Reception Center 8.3 located at Carl Sandburg High School.Picks up evacuees along Chicago Street North/ Brandon Road North to Sub-area 14 1 Manhattan Road East to EPZ boundary.

Travels to the Reception Center located 3.3 at Kankakee Community College.Pick up evacuees along IL-53 South from the boundary between Sub-area 14 and Sub-area 15 1 Sub-area 15 to 5th Street/ River Road South to IL-113 South to the EPZ boundary.

9.8 Travels to the Reception Center located at Kankakee Community College.Picks up evacuees along IL-113 South from the intersection of Coal City Road to Sub-area 16 1 the EPZ boundary.

Travels to the Reception Center located at Kankakee 6.4 Community College.Total: 23 8-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Sub-area 1 3 120 16.5 17.7 56 30 26.2 29 5 10 65 30 Sub-area 2 1 120 8.4 26.0 19 30 Sub-area 3 1 120 10.4 12.1 52 30 Sub-area 5 2 120 2.8 25.7 7 30 Sub-area 6 1 120 6.0 26.9 13 30 Sub-area 7 1 120 11.2 17.5 38 30 Sub-area 8 1 120 9.4 19.2 29 30 Sub-area 10 1 120 7.4 12.9 34 30 Sub-area 12 2 120 8.6 10.8 48 30 Sub-area 13 (1) 3 120 8.4 26.2 19 30 Sub-area 13 (2) 4 120 8.3 8.6 58 30 Sub-area 14 1 120 3.3 48.4 4 30 Sub-area 15 1 120 9.8 50.5 12 30 Sub-area 16 1 120 6.4 37.4 10 30 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 38.1 42 5 10 60 30 22.9 25 5 10 49 30 41.8 46 5 10 54 30 28.8 31 5 10 44 30 35.5 39 5 10 64 30 41.8 46 5 10 67 30 33.5 37 5 10 53 30 22.9 25 5 10 45 30 27.0 29 5 10 50 30 24.1 26 5 10 45 30 34.4 38 5 10 45 30 21.8 24 5 10 46 30 21.8 24 5 10 39 30 I I I ........ I 8-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Sub-area 1 3 130 16.5 24.0 41 40 Sub-area 2 1 130 8.4 29.7 17 40 Sub-area 3 1 130 10.4 21.8 29 40 Sub-area 5 2 130 2.8 23.8 7 40 Sub-area 6 1 130 6.0 27.6 13 40 Sub-area 7 1 130 11.2 13.9 48 40 Sub-area 8 1 130 9.4 15.0 38 40 Sub-area 10 1 130 7.4 8.3 54 40 Sub-area 12 2 130 8.6 20.7 25 40 Sub-area 13 (1) 3 130 8.4 22.5 22 40 Sub-area 13 (2) 4 130 8.3 9.4 53 40 Sub-area 14 1 130 3.3 43.7 5 40 Sub-area 15 1 130 9.8 45.3 13 40 Sub-area 16 1 130 6.4 38.8 10 40 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 26.2 31 5 10 69 40 38.1 46 5 10 65 40 22.9 27 5 10 52 40 41.8 50 5 10 58 40 28.8 35 5 10 49 40 35.5 43 5 10 69 40 41.8 50 5 10 72 40 33.5 40 5 10 57 40 22.9 27 5 10 48 40 27.0 32 5 10 54 40 24.1 29 5 10 49 40 34.4 41 5 10 49 40 21.8 26 5 10 49 40 21.8 26 5 10 42 40 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-40 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Sub-area 1 3 140 16.5 20.5 48 50 Sub-area 2 1 140 8.4 27.8 18 50 Sub-area 3 1 140 10.4 12.6 49 50 Sub-area 5 2 140 2.8 21.6 8 50 Sub-area 6 1 140 6.0 26.8 13 50 Sub-area 7 1 140 11.2 7.5 90 50 Sub-area 8 1 140 9.4 9.2 61 50 Sub-area 10 1 140 7.4 6.5 69 50 Sub-area 12 2 140 8.6 11.7 44 50 Sub-area 13 (1) 3 140 8.4 24.1 21 50 Sub-area 13 (2) 4 140 8.3 7.1 70 50 Sub-area 14 1 140 3.3 38.8 5 50 Sub-area 15 1 140 9.8 40.5 15 50 Sub-area 16 1 140 6.4 35.3 11 50 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 26.2 35 5 10 75 50 38.1 51 5 10 71 50 22.9 31 5 10 58 50 41.8 56 5 10 65 50 28.8 38 5 10 53 50 35.5 47 5 10 75 50 41.8 56 5 10 79 50 33.5 45 5 10 63 50 22.9 31 5 10 54 50 27.0 36 5 10 60 50 24.1 32 5 10 53 50 34.4 46 5 10 54 50 21.8 29 5 10 54 50 21.8 29 5 10 46 50 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 8-41 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-41 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Travel Loading Time to Rate Total EPZ Mobilization (min per Loading Dist. To EPZ Boundary ETE Medical Facility Patient (min) person) People Time (min) Bdry (mi) (min) (hr:min)GRUNDY COUNTY Walnut Grove Retirement Ambulatory 90 1 I 86 30 i 2.6 5 2:05____ ____ ___ ___ __ I 4 -4 Wheelchair bound 90 5 37 75 2.6 3 2:50-Ull U liLy Elliot Manor Ambulatory 90 1 73 30 4.8 6 2:10 Wheelchair bound 90 5 32 75 4.8 6 2:55 Ambulatory 90 1 42 30 4.9 6 2:10 Morris Hospital Wheelchair bound 90 5 10 50 4.9 6 2:30 Bedridden 90 15 30 4.9 6 2:10 Alden Estates Ambulatory 90 1 77 1.5 20 2:00 Wheelchair bound 90 5 63 75 1.5 4 2:50 Ambulatory 90g 1 30 1.6 25 2:25 I imoers or Shorewood Wheelchair bound 1 90 5 159 75 j 1.6 [ 4 1 2:50 Bedridden 90 15 1 15 1.6 I 33 2:20 Beride 9 1 1151.6 I 33 2:20 Ambulatory 90 1 64 30 1.0 1 2:05 Island City Rehab Wheelchair bound 90 5 53 75 1.0 1 2:50 Center Bedridden 90 15 12 30 1.0 1 2:05 Maximum ETE: 2:55 Average ETE: 2:25 8-42 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-42 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Rael Total [EPZ i'Meialnu Facilit Pmuatiet( inresn) Pol Time (min 30r 2.6 ) (mn 2h:m5 Retirement Community Wheelchair bound 100 5 37 75 2.6 4 3:00 Elliot Manor Ambulatory 100 1 73 30 4.8 7 2:20 Wheelchair bound 100 5 32 75 4.8 6 3:05 Ambulatory 100 1 42 30 4.9 7 2:20 Morris Hospital Wheelchair bound 100 5 10 50 4.9 7 2:40 Bedridden 100 15 6 30 4.9 7 2:20 Alden Estates Ambulatory 100 1 7 7 1.5 34 2:25 Wheelchair bound 100 5 63 75 1.5 4 3:00 Timbers of Ambulatory 100 1 140 30 1.6 43 2:55 Shorewood Wheelchair bound 100 5 59 75 1.6 13 3:10 Bedridden 100 15 1 15 1.6 46 2:45 Island City Ambulatory 100 1 64 I 30 1.0 2 2:15 Rehab Center Wheelchair bound 100 5 53 75 1.0 2 3:00 Bedridden 100 15 12 30 1.0 2 2:15 Maximum ETE: 3:10 Average ETE: 2:40 8-43 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-43 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Walnut Grove Ambulatory 110 1 8630 2.6 10 2:30 Retirement CommunityoWheelchair bound 110 5 37s75 2.6 4 3:10 Ellt Maor Ambulatory 110 1 30 2.6 0 2:30 Elliot Manor Amuaoy10173048720 Wheelchair bound 110 5 32 75 4.8 7 3:15 Ambulatory 110 1 42 30 4.9 7 2:30 Morris Hospital Wheelchair bound 110 5 10 50 4.9 8 2:50 Bedridden 110 15 30 4.9 7 2:30 Alden Estates Ambulatory 110 1 7 7 1.5 28 2:25 Wheelchair bound 110 5 63 75 1.5 6 3:15 Timbers of Ambulatory 110 1 30 1.6 45 3:05 Shorewood Wheelchair bound 110 5 59 75 1.6 15 3:20 Bedridden 110 15 1 15 1.6 46 2:55 Ambulatory 110 1 64 30 1.0 2 2:25 Island City Rehab Center Wheelchair bound 1 110 J 5 [ 53 1 75 [ 1.0 J 2 1 3:10 Bedridden 1 110 1 15 1 12 1 30 1 1.0 1 2 1 2:25 Maximum ETE: J3:20 Average ETE: 1 2:50 Dresden Generating Station 8-44 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Tota LodngTaelTm Peopl Lod.6 ~ m .rv t Tim at to E Reurn eiceete Moiizto at I" Sto Subseqen Subeun Boundary Geil ye Vhce dpoe tp ondtod s Tim 90 in (mn Stp 45 in lSSUiIUUhIStopsI (min) (mFIhIIII~in)IUI EEE E (hrE Buses 260 44 6 Rain Snow 100 110 5 50 55 25 14 14 3:15 3:30 Good 90 54 13 3:15 Wheelchair 161 23 7 Rain 100 5 60 30 14 3:30 Buses Snow 110 66 15 3:50 Good 90 10 11 2:25 Ambulances 12 6 2 Rain 100 15 11 15 13 2:35 Snow 110 13 13 2:50 Maximum ETE: 3:50 Average ETE: 3:10 Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-45 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-18. Correctional Facility Evacuation Time Estimates 0 S ..Travel Goodin 90ta Tim to 4 Grundy County Jail Rain 100 3 2 65 60 5.7 9 10 2:50 3:00 Snow 110 Good 90 4 2:35 Will County Juvenile Detention Center Rain 100 9 2 246 60 0.7 4 2:45 Snow 110 5 2:55 Maximum ETE: 3:00 Average ETE: 2:50 Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-46 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include: " Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers)." Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T.

All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version.* A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are: 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.We employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.

There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.

For example: " A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.

• An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process: 1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment (see Figures 7-3 through 7-8).This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion.

Any critical intersections that would benefit from traffic or access control which are not already identified in the existing offsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs.Dresden Generating Station 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

3. The existing TCPs and ACPs, and how they were applied in this study, are discussed in Appendix G.4. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. These priorities should be assigned by state/local emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.

The ETE simulations discussed in Section 7.3 indicate that the evacuation routes are oversaturated and experience pronounced traffic congestion during an evacuation of the entire 10-mile EPZ due to the limited capacity of the roadways and the large volume of evacuating traffic. As shown in Figure 7-6, congestion persists for two and a half hours along IL-53 southbound due to the large resident population in Braidwood, Godley, and Braceville.

IL-53 intersects Main Street (CR-29) in Gardner at two locations; both intersections have all-way stop signs. Positioning a traffic control officer at these intersections will override the stop sign and hasten the evacuation of these vehicles.

It is recommended that the intersections of IL-53/Storm Rd and E Main St/CR-29 (shown in Appendix G, Figure G-2) and IL-53/Historic US-66 and W Main St/CR-29 (shown in Appendix G, Figure G-3) be considered as additional TCPs to facilitate the evacuation of the southern portion of the DRE EPZ. These additional TCPs were included in developing the ETE values documented in Section 7 after preliminary simulations showed a decrease in ETE of up to 35 minutes when these intersections were considered as TCPs.The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS)can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information.

DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information.

Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing ACP or TCP locations in the offsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals. Appendix K, Table K-2 identifies those intersections that were modeled as TCPs.Dresden Generating Station 9-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> have elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.

Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 9-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:

• Routing from a Sub-area being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.* Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception communities or reception centers.Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable.

The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.See Appendices B through D for further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception communities or reception centers is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.The Radiological Emergency Response Plan (RERP) for the State of Illinois indicates evacuees can receive congregate care at reception centers.Figure 10-1 presents an overview of the general population reception communities (listed in the public information) and reception centers (listed in the county RERP) servicing the EPZ.Note reception centers serve both the school population and the general public. The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2.It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate reception center and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians.

Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest reception community.

Dresden Generating Station 10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 a.OWYr~O AY lore .. Carl -4 W t'e I ~ ~ andburg High"ji, Solooou!k d Sandw- ho I P,.'ct L.,,~o~r ~ £~!hov~'___

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Ir utI 7-Suab~a 6 I Kendtd Co~n-'1~-Tý'J* -47 N~-V ~ m I fl{ Pine Bluff Rd 7 0ýICC Vfl~L J V-I mmK4p'J<--7 cit Legend* DRE-Evacuation Route I Sub-area2, 5, 10 Mile Rings FI DaIl 4,'7/2014 C~pyIght mSi 5..n~p Sat I I0 10 I I MiISR I-E Figure 10-2. Major Evacuation Routes 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation.

There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement.

Surveillance can take several forms.1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.

4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.

These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery.

It is the responsibility of the counties to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that:* They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes." Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.The state RERP discusses the use of snowplows to assist disabled vehicles and to remove debris from highways.

Consideration should also be given that the state and local emergency management agencies encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

Dresden Generating Station 11-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate.

The offsite agency radiological emergency response plans do not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation.

Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.

The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.

It is reasonable to assume for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.The confirmation process should start at about 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Figure 5-4). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of Sub-areas), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.If this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and could be periodically updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize.

This 2-hour timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.

Other techniques could also be considered.

After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.

Dresden Generating Station 12-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.

Reference:

Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling.

McGraw Hill, 1971 Given: " No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) 43,000" Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20" Allowable error margin, e: 0.05" Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p=F+e=0.25; q=l-p=0.75 A 2 pq + e n -- 3 0 8 Finite population correction:

nN nF =- = 306 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated.

If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 215.Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume: " Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers):

30 seconds* Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds* Time for 4 rings plus short conversation:

60 sec." Interval between calls: 20 sec.Person Hours: 300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20]3600 7.6 3600 Dresden Generating Station 12-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 13 REFERENCES Agarwal, M. et. al. Proceedings of the 2005 Mid-Continent Transportation Research Symposium, "Impacts of Weather on Urban Freeway Traffic Flow Characteristics and Facility Capacity," August 2005. (Agarwal, 2005).Exelon. EP-AA-1004, Revision 33, "Exelon Nuclear Radiological Emergency Plan Annex for Dresden Station," June 2013. (Exelon, 2013).Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Washington, D.C., 2013. (HPMS, 2013).Institute for Environmental Studies (IES), University of Toronto. "The Mississauga Evacuation Final Report," June 1981. (IES, 1981).Lieberman, E. Publication Transportation Research Record 772, "Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection," 1980. (Lieberman, 1980).Lieberman, E., Xin, W. "Macroscopic Traffic Modeling For Large-Scale Evacuation Planning", presented at the TRB 2012 Annual Meeting, January 2012. (Lieberman, 2012).McShane, W. & Lieberman, E. "Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of an Approach," Publication Transportation Research Record 772, 1980. (McShane, 1980).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-1745, "Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones," November, 1980. (NRC, 1980a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-4873, PNL-6171, "Benchmark Study of the I-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-4874, PNL-6172, "The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Changes in Input Parameters for the I-DYNEV Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988b).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, "Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants," November 1980. (NRC, 1980b).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-6863, SAND2004-5900, "Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants," January 2005. (NRC, 2005).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-7002, SAND 2010-0061P, "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies," November 2011. (NRC, 2011a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 -Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, 2011.(NRC, 2011b).State of Illinois, "Illinois Plan For Radiological Accidents (IPRA) Dresden -Volume II," August 2013. (IPRA, 2013).Dresden Generating Station 13-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Transportation Research Board (TRB). "Highway Capacity Manual." National Research Council, Washington, DC, 2010. (TRB, 2010).Zhang, L. and Levinson, D. "Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks," Transportation Research Record 1883, 2004. (Zhang, 2004).Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 13-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Term3 Deiito Analysis Network Link Measures of Effectiveness Node Origin Prevailing Roadway and Traffic Conditions A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g., composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.The cycle length is expressed in seconds.A single combination of signal indications.

The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.Service Rate Service Volume Signal Cycle Length Signal Interval A-i KLD Engineering, p.c.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate A-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I TermDefiniio Signal Phase Traffic (Trip) Assignment Traffic Density Traffic (Trip) Distribution Traffic Simulation Traffic Volume Travel Mode Trip Table or Origin-Destination Matrix Turning Capacity A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection.

The phase duration is expressed in seconds.A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives.

In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance.

These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.

The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations.

These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

A-2 KLO Engineering, p.c.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate A-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios.

DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEV II System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost." Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario.

That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these"best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways.

The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip"cost", as discussed later.The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified"geometric" netwo'rk (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements.

DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.Dresden Generating Station B-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations.

The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEV II using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling.

Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion.

To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions.

The modeling principles of DTRAD include:* It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several"efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose." The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling".

Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed.

The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.

• DTRAD executes the traffic assignment algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.* Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as Ca = at, +13/, + wherec,,is the generalized cost for link a, and a,fl, andyare cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively.

Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions.

The DYNEV simulation model Dresden Generating Station B-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior.

This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session).

A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).

The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant: Sa -P3 In (p), 0!5 p < I, 13 >0 d, p d o dn= Distance of node, n, from the plant do =Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 0 = Scaling factor The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the Shadow Region. Note that the supplemental cost, Sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote: Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium".

It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful]

condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective"costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e., commuters).

Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 G)Start of next DTRAD Session I Set To = Clock time.Archive System State at To I Define latest Link Turn Percentages I-B Execute Simulation Model from time, To to T 1 (burn time)I Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T 1 Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages I Retrieve System State at To Apply new Link Turn Percents DTRAD iteration converges?

No Yes Simulate from To to T 2 (DTA session duration)Set Clock to T 2 Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables:

vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions.

The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)such as those listed in Table C-1.Model Features Include: " Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles." Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model." At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications:

queued and moving vehicles.

The number of vehicles in each classification is computed.

Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified.

The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation.

There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link." Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented.

This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source." The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.

If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded." A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.* A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages.

• Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN* Calculates ETE statistics Dresden Generating Station C-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 All traffic simulation models are data-intensive.

Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections:

rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways.

The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).Figure C-1 is an example of a small network representation.

The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively.

An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.

Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II Measure~~g Unt-ppisT Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Route Statistics Routemin Time (min)Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK" Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers" Link lengths" Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization" Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)" Destination (exit) nodes" Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link" Node Coordinates (X,Y)" Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES* On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS

• Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific* Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated* Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)" Stop and Yield signs" Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)" Route diversion specifications

• Turn restrictions" Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)

DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

• Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms:

free-flow speed, discharge headway" Bus route designation.

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT

• Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)" Duration of DTA sessions* Duration of simulation "burn time"" Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS* Identify and Schedule of closed lanes" Identify and Schedule of closed links Dresden Generating Station C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships.

Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qma, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf _ k !< kc = 45 vpm, the density at capacity.

In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k _ k, = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion.

The value of flow rate, Q_, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax ; (3) Critical density, kc =45 vpm ; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, ki. Then, vc -Q` , k, = -(Vf-Vc) k' Setting k = k -kc, then Q = RQmax RQmaxk2 for 0 --< k -< ks = 50. It can be Qm ax 8333 shown that Q = (0.98 -0.0056 k) RQmax for ks -k -kj, where ks = 50 and k = 1 7 5.C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems".

Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.

Dresden Generating Station C-5 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Volume, vph Drop R---- Qs Vf Rvc -I I I I I I I I-I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Density, vpm-Density, vpm kf Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Distance Qb Mb OQ OM OE Qe Me O Down Up-*Time L I El Ez TI Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with tj > 0 Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.E The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the time interval.

The portion, ETI, can reach the stop-bar within the TI.The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn movement on a link.h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.k The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a link.L The length of the link in feet.Lb , Le The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a time interval.The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a particular movement on a link.Lv The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.M Metering factor (Multiplier):

1.The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb , Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval.

These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link over a time interval.The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged OQOM ,OE from a link within a time interval:

vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that executes a particular turn movement, x.Dresden Generating Station C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the Qb, Qe [beginning, end] of the time interval.The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).tj Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first tj seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.Dresden Generating Station C-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.

Given= Qb, Mb, L, TI, Eo, LN, G/C , h, LV, Ro, L, E,M Compute = 0, Qe, Me Define O=OQ+OM+OE

E=E 1+E 2 1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, k 0 , the R -factor, R 0 and entering traffic, Eo, using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.For each subsequent sweep, s > 1, calculate E = Zi Pi Oi + S where Pi, Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i , and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = k 0 ,and E = Eo .2. Calculate v (k) such that k __ 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.Qmnax(TI)

(Calculate Cap = 0 (G/c) LN, in vehicles, this value may be reduced due to metering SetR= l.0ifG/C<l orifk!kc; Set R=O.9onlyifG/c=

land k>kc Calculate queue length, Lb = Qb L LL 3. Calculate t 1=TI--. Ift 1<O, settl=El=OE=0; Else, E =Et1 v TI 4. Then E 2 =E-El ; t 2 = TI -tj 5. If Qb Cap, then O= CapOM = OE = 0 If tj > 0,then Qe = Qb + Mb + E 1 -Cap Else Qe = Qb -Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)6. Else (Qb < Cap)OQ = Qb, RCap = Cap -OQ 7. If Mb < RCap,then Dresden Generating Station C-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

8. if t 1> 0, OM = Mb, OE = min(RCap -Mb, t Cap > 0' ' ~TI ]Q'e --If Qe > 0,then Calculate Qe, Me with Algorithm A Else Qe = 0, Me = E2 End if Else (t, = 0)OM= (v(TI)-Lb)

Mb and 0 E = 0 ( L-Lb )Me= Mb -OM + E; Qe = 0 End if 9. Else (Mb > RCap)O= 0 If tl > O, then OM=RCap, Qe=Mb-OM+El Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A 10. Else (t, = 0)Md = [(v(TI)-Lb)

Mb]t\L-Lb ) M If Md > RCap, then Om= RCap Q= Md -OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM = Md Me = Mb -0 M + E and Qe = 0 End if End if End if End if 11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn = ! [kb + 2 km + ke], 4 where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = density at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.If Ikn -kn- > E and n < N where N = max number of iterations, and E is a convergence criterion, then Dresden Generating Station C-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn *End if Computation of unit problem is now complete.

Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.

13. If Qe + Me > (L-W) LN, then L, The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB = Qe + Me (L-WLN where W is the width of the upstream intersection.

To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1 -S) > 0 where M is the metering factor (over all movements).(E +S)-This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb VQ Y e' shown, Qb -Cap, with t 1 >0 and a queue of Qe length, Qe, formed by that portion of Mb and E I that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could v not discharge due to inadequate capacity.

That is, Mb Qb+Mb+El > Cap. This queue length, v L3 Qe = Qb + Mb + El -Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current TI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the 4_W4_..-queue within the TI. A portion of the entering T I vehicles, E 3 = E will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 ,Qe and Me for the input values of L, TI, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Qe *When t 1 > 0 and Qb -Cap: Dfn:U=Q'Lv Lv Define: L'e = .From the sketch, L 3 = v(TI -t, -t 3) = L -(Qe + E 3) L Substituting E 3 = L3 E yields: -vt 3 + L.. E Lv = L -v(TI -t 1) -L'e. Recognizing that TI TI LN the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain: Dresden Generating Station C-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 L'e t3 -- r E such that 0 _t 3 :TI-t 1 E E .v If the denominator, v v E -C .] <0 set t 3 = TI-t .ITILN Then, Qe = Qe + E t3 Me = E 1 +t 3 The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed.

Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.

Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the Dresden Generating Station C-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.

The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:

Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping).

After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes.

It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary:

Table C-3)Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.Figure B-1 depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions";

each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,[To , T 2], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function.

The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.As indicated in Figure B-I, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function.

These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T, <_ T 2 , which lies within the session duration, [To ,T 2] .This "burn time", T, -To, is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To , and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T 2 .At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.Additional details are presented in Appendix B.Dresden Generating Station C-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates.

The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.Step 1 The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location.

The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary.Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Transient, employment, and special facility data were obtained from Exelon, the offsite agencies and phone calls to individual facilities.

Step 3 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.Step 4 The results of a telephone survey of households within the EPZ were obtained from Exelon to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population.

This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.

Step 5 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software (see Section 1.3) developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 3). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description.

Traffic signal timings were input accordingly.

The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.Dresden Generating Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 6 The EPZ is subdivided into 16 Sub-areas.

Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of Sub-areas) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.

The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions.

Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.

Step 7 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.Step 8 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines.

DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified.

The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.

The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 9 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined.

The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion.

This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions: " The results are satisfactory; or" The input stream must be modified accordingly.

Dresden Generating Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 10 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.

These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.Step 11 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 10. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.Step 12 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis.

Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.Step 13 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated.

This process was automated through the UNITES user interface.

For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.Step 14 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results are available, quality control procedures are used to assure the results are consistent, dynamic routing is reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks are addressed properly.Dresden Generating Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 15 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes are used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.

Step 16 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.

Step 17 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed.

An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.

Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Step 1 Create GIS Base Map Step 2 Gather Census Block and Demographic Data for Study Area IStep 3 Field Survey of Roadways within Study T _ Step 4 Analyze Telephone Survey and Develop Trip Generation Characteristics I Il Step S Create and Calibrate Link-Node Analysi F- Step 6 Develo p Evacuation Regions and Scenarios Step 7 Create and Debug DYNEV- 1 Input Stream Step 12 Establish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation Routes and Update DYNEV-1l Database Step 13 Generate DYNEV-11 Input Streams for All Evacuation Cases I_ _ Step 8 I Execute DYNEV II for Prototype Evacuation CaseI Step 14 Use DYNEV-11 Average Speed Output to Compute ETE for Transit and Special Facility Routes IStep 15 Use DYNEV-II Results to Estimate Transit and Special Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates Step 16 Documentation IStep 17 Complete ETE Criteria Checklist Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Dresden Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0