RS-14-151, Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 5
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9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include: " Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).
- Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T.
All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version.* A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are: 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.We employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.
There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.
For example:* A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating." An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process: 1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.
- 2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment (see Figures 7-3 through 7-9).This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion.
Any critical intersections that would benefit from traffic or access control which are not already identified in the existing offsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
- 3. The existing TCPs and ACPs, and how they were applied in this study, are discussed in Appendix G.4. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. These priorities should be assigned by state/local emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.
The ETE simulations discussed in Section 7.3 indicate minimal congestion within the EPZ. The 1001h percentile ETE are dictated by the time to mobilize evacuees rather than the time for traffic congestion to clear. As such, no additional TCPs or ACPs are identified as a result of this study. The existing traffic management plans are adequate.The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS)can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information.
DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information.
Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing ACP or TCP locations in the offsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals. Appendix K, Table K-2 identifies those intersections that were modeled as TCPs.Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> have elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.
Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 9-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components: " Routing from a Zone being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.* Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable.
The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.See Appendices B through D for further discussion.
The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.Figure 10-1 presents an overview of the reception centers and host schools servicing the EPZ.The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2.It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate host school and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians.
Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest reception center for each county. This study does not consider the transport of evacuees from reception centers to mass care centers (also known as congregate care centers), if the counties do make the decision to relocate evacuees.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 MpN.Facility Name .Ol .. 11 .,-ug nadii 4 8" 1 C. Milton Wright High stlo-2 Calvert Elementary Lp P 3 Churchville Elementary
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~kC~m,!23 "N...'PBAOA)-' Evcuatio Rout Figureio R02oMjruvcatotRue Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation.
There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement.
Surveillance can take several forms.1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.
- 2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.
- 4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.
These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery.
It is the responsibility of the offsite response organizations to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.
While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that: " They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes.* Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.The ORO emergency plans discuss the provision of fuel and removal of traffic obstructions on main evacuation routes.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 11-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate.
The offsite agency radiological emergency plans do not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation.
Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.
The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.
It is reasonable to assume for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.The confirmation process should start at about 2Y2 hours after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 95 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Figure 5-4). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of Zones), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.If this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and could be periodically updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 2Y2 hours after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize.
This 2Y2 hour timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.
Other techniques could also be considered.
After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.
Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 12-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.
Reference:
Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling McGraw Hill, 1971 Given: " No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 23,200" Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20" Allowable error margin, e: 0.05" Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p=F+e= 0.25; q=1-p=0.75 A 2 pq + e n 2 -308 Finite population correction:
nN nF --=304 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated.
If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 214.Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume: " Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers):
30 seconds" Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds" Time for 4 rings plus short conversation:
60 sec." Interval between calls: 20 sec.Person Hours: 300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20]3600 7.6 3600 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 12-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 13 REFERENCES Agarwal, M. et. al. Proceedings of the 2005 Mid-Continent Transportation Research Symposium, "Impacts of Weather on Urban Freeway Traffic Flow Characteristics and Facility Capacity," August 2005. (Agarwal, 2005).Institute for Environmental Studies (IES), University of Toronto. "The Mississauga Evacuation Final Report," June 1981. (IES, 1981).Lieberman, E. Publication Transportation Research Record 772, "Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection," 1980. (Lieberman, 1980).Lieberman, E., Xin, W. "Macroscopic Traffic Modeling For Large-Scale Evacuation Planning", presented at the TRB 2012 Annual Meeting, January 2012. (Lieberman, 2012).McShane, W. & Lieberman, E. "Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of an Approach," Publication Transportation Research Record 772, 1980. (McShane, 1980).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-1745, "Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones," November, 1980. (NRC, 1980a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-4873, PNL-6171, "Benchmark Study of the I-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-4874, PNL-6172, "The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Changes in Input Parameters for the I-DYNEV Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988b).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, "Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants," November 1980. (NRC, 1980b).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-6863, SAND2004-5900, "Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants," January 2005. (NRC, 2005).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-7002, SAND 2010-0061P, "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies," November 2011. (NRC, 2011a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 -Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, 2011.(NRC, 2011b).Transportation Research Board (TRB). "Highway Capacity Manual." National Research Council, Washington, DC, 2010. (TRB, 2010).Zhang, L. and Levinson, D. "Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks," Transportation Research Record 1883, 2004. (Zhang, 2004).Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 13-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Term Definiio Analysis Network Link Measures of Effectiveness Node Origin Prevailing Roadway and Traffic Conditions A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.
Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.
Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g., composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).
Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.The cycle length is expressed in seconds.A single combination of signal indications.
The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.Service Rate Service Volume Signal Cycle Length Signal Interval Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate A-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 TermI Deiito Signal Phase Traffic (Trip) Assignment Traffic Density Traffic (Trip) Distribution Traffic Simulation Traffic Volume Travel Mode Trip Table or Origin-Destination Matrix Turning Capacity A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection.
The phase duration is expressed in seconds.A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives.
In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance.
These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.
The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations.
These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.
Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate A-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios.
DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEV II System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.
To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost." Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario.
That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these"best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways.
The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip"cost", as discussed later.The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified"geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements.
DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station B-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations.
The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEV II using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling.
Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion.
To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions.
The modeling principles of DTRAD include:* It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several"efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose.* The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling".
Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed.
The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.
- DTRAD executes the traffic assignment algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.* Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as Ca = at, + /3l,, + YSa, where c,, is the generalized cost for link a, and a, ,8, and yare cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively.
Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions.
The DYNEV simulation model Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station B-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior.
This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.
The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session).
A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.0 The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).
The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant: Sa= -P3 In (p), 0< p!I; I3 >0 d, P do dn= Distance of node, n, from the plant d 0=Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 13 = Scaling factor The value of dc = 15 miles, the outer distance of the Shadow Region. Note that the supplemental cost, Sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station B-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote: Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium".
It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful]
condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective"costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e., commuters).
Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 G)Start of next DTRAD Session Set To = Clock time.Archive System State at To I Define latest Link Turn Percentages I B Execute Simulation Model from time, To to T, (burn time)!Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T 1 I Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages Retrieve System State at To Apply new Link Turn Percents I I I DTRAD iteration converges?
I No Yes Next iteration Simulate from To to T 2 (DTA session duration)Set Clock to T 2 Figure B-i. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-S KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables:
vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions.
The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)such as those listed in Table C-1.Model Features Include: " Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles." Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model." At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications:
queued and moving vehicles.
The number of vehicles in each classification is computed.
Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified.
The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation.
There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link." Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented.
This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source." The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.
If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded." A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.* A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages." Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN" Calculates ETE statistics Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station C-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 All traffic simulation models are data-intensive.
Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections:
rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways.
The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).Figure C-1 is an example of a small network representation.
The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively.
An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.
Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II Meaur Unt Aple ToS Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Route Statistics Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Time (min)Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK" Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers" Link lengths" Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization" Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)* Destination (exit) nodes" Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link" Node Coordinates (X,Y)" Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES 0 On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS" Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific* Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated" Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)" Stop and Yield signs" Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)* Route diversion specifications" Turn restrictions" Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)
DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS" Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms:
free-flow speed, discharge headway" Bus route designation.
DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT" Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)" Duration of DTA sessions* Duration of simulation "burn time"" Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS" Identify and Schedule of closed lanes" Identify and Schedule of closed links Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships.
Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf <_ k _< k, = 45 vpm, the density at capacity.
In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k !5 k_ = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion.
The value of flow rate, Q,, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax ; (3) Critical density, kc =45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, k 1.Then, vc = Qmax k, = kc -, , kc '(vf-vc) k Setting k = k -kc, then Q = RQax RQ83ax 2 for 0 _k< ks =50. Itcanbe Qmax 83 shown that Q = (0.98 -0.0056 k) RQmax for kR < k < kj, where kR = 50 and i = 17S.C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems".
Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.
Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station C-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Volume, vph; Capacity Drop R---Qs Density, vpm Vf-R vc I *I ,o Densi SDnity kf k* ks Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Distance Qb Mb OQ OM OE Qe Me O Down Up-Time L El E2 TI Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with tj > 0 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.E The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the time interval.
The portion, ETI, can reach the stop-bar within the TI.The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn movement on a link.h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.k The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a link.L The length of the link in feet.Lb , L, The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a time interval.The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a particular movement on a link.Lv The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.M Metering factor (Multiplier):
1.The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb, Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval.
These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link over a time interval.The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link within a time interval:
vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that executes a particular turn movement, x.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Qb, Qe The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the[beginning, end] of the time interval.The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).t 1 Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first t 1 seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.C-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.
Given= Qb, Mb, L, TI, Eo, LN, G/C , h, L, Ro, L, E,M Compute = 0, Qe, Me Define O=OQ+OM+OE
- E=E 1+E 2 1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, ko , the R -factor, R 0 and entering traffic, Eo, using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.For each subsequent sweep, s > 1 , calculate E = Zi Pi Oi + S where Pi, Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i , and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = ko , and E = Eo .2. Calculate v (k) such that k __ 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.Calculate Cap = Qmax(TI)0 (G/C) LN , in vehicles, this value may be reduced due to metering SetR= 1.0ifG/C<1 orifk5kc; Set R=0.9onlyif G/C= land k>k, Calculate queue length, Lb = Qbv LL 3. Calculate tj =TI-- L If to <0, sett 1=E =OE=O ; Else, E 1=E--v Ti 4. Then E 2=E-E 1 ; t 2=TI-t 1 5. If Qb Cap,then OQ= CapOM =OE = 0 If tj > 0,then Qe = Qb + Mb + E 1 -Cap Else Qe = Qb -Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)6. Else (Qb -< Cap)OQ = Qb, RCap = Cap- OQ 7. If Mb _ RCap,then Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station C-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
- 8. If tl > 0, 0 M = Mb,OE = min RCap Mb, t I.. Cp 0 Q'e =E -OE If Q'e > 0,then Calculate Qe, Me with Algorithm A Else Qe = 0, Me = E 2 End if Else (t 1 = 0)0M (v(T1-b) Mb and OE = 0 Me =Mb -OM + E; Qe = 0 End if 9. Else (Mb > RCap)OE= 0 If tl>0, then OM=RCap, Qe=Mb--OM+El Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A 10. Else (t, = 0)Md = [ "-L Mb]If Md > RCap, then Om= RCap Qe Md -OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM = Md M e=Mb-OM+E and Qe=0 End if End if End if End if 11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn = 4 [kb + 2 km + ke], 4 where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = density at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.If 1kn -kn-1 I > E and n < N where N = max number of iterations, and E is a convergence criterion, then Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station C-1O KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
- 12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn*End if Computation of unit problem is now complete.
Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.
- 13. If Qe + Me > (L-W) LN, then Lv (L-W) -LN The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB = Qe + Me L-W,._N where W is the width of the upstream intersection.
To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1 ---> 0, where M is the metering factor (over all movements).(E +S)-This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb VQ Y e shown, Qb -- Cap, with t 1 > 0 and a queue of Qe length, Qe, formed by that portion of Mb and E that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could v + not discharge due to inadequate capacity.
That is, Mb Qb + Mb + E 1 > Cap. This queue length, V L3 Qe = Qb + Mb + El -Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current ti t3 TI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the queue within the TI. A portion of the entering TI vhices, 3 = t3 Tvehicles, E3 = E will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 , Qe and Me for the input values of L, TI, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Qe *When t 1 > 0 and Qb -Cap: LvL Define: L!e = Q'e L- From the sketch, L 3 = v(T3) t -t 3) -L-(Q + L Substituting E 3 = 13 E yields: -Vt 3 + 1I E -v = L -v(TI -t 1) -Le .Recognizing that TI TI LN the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain: Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station C-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 t3 = e E Lvsuch that 0 :_ t 3 TI -tj E L v 3 T-1 Iv If the denominator, V T j 0, set t3 = TI -t.Then, Qe=Qe+E t3 Me=E 1 (t+t3)The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed.
Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.
Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station C-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.
The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:
Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping).
After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.
The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes.
It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.c-13 KLD Engineering, p.c.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary:
Table C-3)Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.Figure B-i depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions";
each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,[To , T 2], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function.
The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.As indicated in Figure B-i, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function.
These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T 1 _ T 2 , which lies within the session duration, [TO, T 2] .This "burn time", T 1 -To, is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To 0 , and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T 2 .At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.Additional details are presented in Appendix B.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station C-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates.
The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.Step 1 The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location.
The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary.Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Transient, employment, and special facility data were obtained from Exelon, the offsite agencies and phone calls to individual facilities.
Step 3 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.Step 4 The results of a telephone survey of households within the EPZ were obtained from Exelon to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population.
This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.
Step 5 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software (see Section 1.3) developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 3). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description.
Traffic signal timings were input accordingly.
The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 6 The EPZ is subdivided into 24 Zones. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of Zones) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.
The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions.
Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.
Step 7 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.Step 8 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines.
DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified.
The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.
The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 9 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined.
The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion.
This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions: " The results are satisfactory; or* The input stream must be modified accordingly.
Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 10 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.
These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.Step 11 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 10. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.Step 12 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis.
Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.Step 13 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated.
This process was automated through the UNITES user interface.
For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.Step 14 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results are available, quality control procedures are used to assure the results are consistent, dynamic routing is reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks are addressed properly.Step 15 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes are used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.
Step 16 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed.documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.
The results were then Step 17 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed.
An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.
Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Step 1 Step 12 Establish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation Routes and Update DYNEV-II Database IStep 13 Generate DYNEV-IIvinput Streams for All Evacuation Cases ýf : Step 14 Use DYNEV-11 Average Speed Output to Compute ETE for Transit and Special Facility Routes IStep 15 Use DYNEV-II Results to Estimate Transit and Special Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates IStep 16 F -Documentation IStep 17 Complete ETE Criteria Checklist Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX E Special Facility Data E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of March 2014, for special facilities, transient attractions and major employers that are located within the PBAPS EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, preschools/daycares, day camps, and medical facilities.
Transient population data is included in the tables for recreational areas and lodging facilities.
Note vehicles (cars with boat trailers and RVs) that were discussed in Section 3 as being represented in the simulation as 2 vehicles are shown as 1 vehicle in this appendix.Employment data is included in the table for major employers.
Each table is grouped by state, then by county. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of schools, preschools/daycares, day camps, medical facilities, major employers, recreational areas, and lodging facilities are also provided.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ Lone b & I Lonowingo i-ementary bcnooi 4/1 i owianasvlile Koaa I Lonowingo Ib_/I bz HA .OR CONYM Zone 1 8.5 SW Harford Friends School 708 Highland Road Street 40 18 Zone 1 9.1 SW North Harford Elementary School 120 Pylesville Road Pylesville 490 54 Zone 1 9.1 SW North Harford High School 211 Pylesville Road Pylesville 1,393 120 Zone 1 9.3 SW North Harford Middle School 112 Pylesville Road Pylesville 1,113 108 Zone 2 6.8 S Harford Christian School 1736 Whiteford Road Darlington 413 75 Zone 3 9.1 SSE Darlington Elementary School 2119 Shuresville Road Dublin 123 25 Zone 3 7.5 S Dublin Elementary School Whiteford Road Dublin 247 35 Harfod ConySuttl 3,819 435 East Drumore 9.7 NE Solanco Senior High School 585 Solanco Road Quarryville 1,219 120 Fulton East 6.9 ENE Clermont Elementary School 1868 Robert Fulton Highway Quarryville 532 52 Fulton East 6.9 ENE Swift Middle School 1866 Robert Fulton Highway Quarryville 465 54 Martic 8.9 N Martic Elementary School 266 Martic Heights Drive Holtwood 374 46 Quarryville 11.0 NNE Quarryville Elementary School 121 South Hess Street Quarryville 459 40 Shadow Region' 11.4 NNE Smith Middle School 645 Kirkwood Pike Quarryville 421 52 Lancaster Cuny rubtta: 3,470 36 Fawn 10.8 W Fawn Area Elementary School 504 Main Street Fawn Grove 315 38 Fawn 10.6 W South Eastern Middle School East 375 Main Street Fawn Grove 423 60 Fawn 10.7 W South Eastern Middle School West 417 Main Street Fawn Grove 456 60 Fawn Grove 10.6 W Kennard-Dale High School 393 Main Street Fawn Grove 936 90 Peach Bottom Delta-Peach Bottom Elementary 1081 Atom Road Delta 330 44 Central 3.2 SW School York aiun is Subtotal.-
2460 292'Facility is located just beyond the EPZ boundary; however, the facility will evacuate.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-2. Preschools
/ Daycares within the EPZ Lone i I 6-.) I ,Wv I niiarens Lenter or Nortn larToro I /u/ Mligniana Koaa I 3treei'U Zone 1 6.6 SW Christian Childcare Center 719 Wheeler School Road Whiteford Zone 3 9.0 SSE Wilson Community Center 1024 Main Street Darlington 28 6 HaEfordCuy t 109D East Drumore ý 8.3 NE jMechanic Grove CLASP 11392 Robert Fulton Highway Quarryville 13 4 East Drumore 9 9. NE jThe Crayon Box Day Care Center 1550 Solanco Road Quarryville 10 3 Providence 11.4 P.BusV Hands Daycare I 290 Sawmill Road New Providence 1 ., I1U.8 MM KIdsvIIe Junction Mldcare 89 Hunt lU:) Koacl i-awn (.rove bb 15 itral 4.3 WSW Delta Christian Academy 6610 Delta Road Delta 110 22 V -' I M *C f) *.E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-3. Day Camps within the EPZ Distance Dire- Enroll-Zone (miles) ction Day Camp Name Street Address Municipality ment CECIL COUNTY, MD Zone 6 8.6 ESE BSA Camp Horseshoe 1286 Ridge Road Rising Sun 800 Zone 6 5.9 SE Camp Conowingo GSA 378 Bell Manor Road Conowingo 275 rdIr~IJnt~!suhtntnI:
I i.iP Zone 1 9.7 SSW Camp Habonim 615 Cherry Hill Road Street 190 Zone 3 9.2 SE Camp Ramblewood Silver Road Darlington 300 Zone 3 6.4 SSE Indian Lake Christian Camp 3915 River Road Darlington 110 Zone 5 4.3 S Broadcreek Memorial Camp 1929 Susquehanna Hall Road Whiteford 1,000 HrodCout Subtotal:
1,600 Drumore North 5.7 N Camp Andrews71-226 Silver Spring Road Holtwood 14400 Little Britain 7.9 ESE Camp John H. Ware Campsite Access Road Peach Bottom, 300 La~ncaster County Subtotal:
440 Lower Chanceford North 5.7 NW Camp Donegal 303 East Telegraph Road Airville 70 Yor Count Subtotal:
70 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-4. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Zone b 9.b Zone 6 7.9 SE I Conowingo Veterans Center 775 Ragan Road I Conowinizo 22 18 16 2 0 Zone 6 10.2 SE Liberty Garden Elderly Care 1670 Liberty Grove Conowingo 12 9 4 3 2 ery Road .o wI g CecilCounty Subtotal:, 43 35 2672 3708 Grier Nursery ¶ZoneHart Heritage Estate Road Street 39 34 25 7 2--I --ii ..East I East 8.2 NNE Country View Manor 12 Friendly Drive Quarryville 24 20 20 0 0 Drumore East 10.6Quarryville Presbterian 62 Robert Fulton Quarryville 375 372 242 128 2 Drumore Retirement Community Highway Lancaster CountiySubtotal:
399 392 262 128 12-N-M-Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-5. Major Employers within the EPZ Cecil County Subtotal: 52 35 Zone 1 6.6 WSW McCorquodale Color Card Co. 2737 Whiteford Road Whiteford 50 68.9% 35 Zone 1 9.1 SW North Harford Elementary School 120 Pylesville Road Pylesville 54 68.9% 38 Zone 1 9.1 SW North Harford High School 211 Pylesville Road Pylesville 120 68.9% 83 Zone 1 9.3 SW North Harford Middle School 112 Pylesville Road Pylesville 108 68.9% 75 Zone 2 6.8 S Harford Christian School 1736 Whiteford Road Darlington 75 68.9% 52 Zone 2 7.6 S Maryland Lava Co. 3102 Dublin Road Street 50 68.9% 35 Harford ContSuoal 457 31 West Nottingham 1 13.2 1E7Herr Foods inc. 20 err Drive Notin m125 68.9%87 Quarryville Presbyterian Retirement East Drumore 10.6 NNE Community 625 Robert Fulton Highway Quarryville 369 68.9% 255 East Drumore 9.7 NE Solanco Senior High School 585 Solanco Road Quarryville 120 68.9% 83 Fulton East 6.9 ENE Clermont Elementary School 1868 Robert Fulton Highway Quarryville 52 68.9% 36 Fulton East 6.9 ENE Swift Middle School 1866 Robert Fulton Highway Quarryville 54 68.9% 38 Providence 8.7 NNE Buck Company 897 Lancaster Pike Quarryville 250 68.9% 173 Quarryville 10.7 NNE Lancaster General 317 West Chestnut Street Quarryville 50 68.9% 35 Lancaster ContySuabtotal.
895 62 Fawn 10.6 W South Eastern Middle School East 375 Main Street Fawn Grove 60 68.9% 42 Fawn 10.7 W South Eastern Middle School West 417 Main Street Fawn Grove 60 68.9% 42 Fawn Grove 10.6 W Kennard-Dale High School 393 Main Street Fawn Grove 90 68.9% 63 Peach Bottom East 0.0 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 1848 Lay Road Delta 801 68.9% 552 York Couy St: 1699 T17- ý -Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-6. Recreational Areas within the EPZ Ditac Zonee6 Zone 6 6.5 1 SE Conowingo Creek Boat Launch Old Conowingo Road Conowingo 40 16 Zone 6 9.3 ESE Hilltop Farm Inc. 11089 Nesbitt Road Colora 1 320 130 Ce~ciCounty Subtotal.
360 146 Zone 1 9.6 SW Geneva Farm Golf Course 217 Davis Road Street 400 161 Zone 1 11.2 SW Rocks 4-H Camp 6 Cherry Hill Road Street 162 66 Zone 3 9.0 SE Conowingos Fisherman's Park Shures Landing Road Darlington 100 41 West Nottingham 150 Park Road Nottingham 900 363 ChesterCounty Subtotal:
9Q00 Drumore South 4.8 NE Pilgrim's Oak Golf Course 1107 Pilgrims Pathway Peach Bottom 209 84 Drumore South 3.4 NNW Susquehannock State Park State Park Road Drumore 613 247 East Drumore 7.6 NNE Tanglewood Manor Golf Course 653 Scotland Road Quarryville 377 152 East Drumore 10.1 NE Yogi Bear's Jellystone Park 340 Blackburn Road Quarryville 521 210O Martic 6.3 N Muddy Run Recreation Park 172 Bethesda Church Road West Holtwood 469 1894 Martic 10.6 NNW Pequea Creek Campground 86 Fox Hollow Road Pequea 248 1002 Martic 7.6 NNW Tucquan Park Family Campground 917 River Road Holtwood 492 1982 Loncaster Coqunt Subtotal:
2,929 1,1$0 Lower Chanceford North 9.1 NW Gamier's Campground 211 Indian Steps Road Airville 348 140 Lower Chanceford North 5.0 NW Lock 12 Recreation Park Mccalls Ferry Road Lower Chanceford 30 13 Lower Chanceford North 10.2 NW Otter Creek Campground 1101 Furnace Road Airville 221 89 Lower Chanceford North 9.9 NW York Furnace Boat Launch Indian Steps Road Airville 102 41T Lower Chanceford South 3.6 NW Lock 15 Recreation Park River Road Lower Chanceford 30 13 Lower Chanceford South 3.5 NW Muddy Creek Access Area River Road Lower Chanceford 110 441 2 Vehicles with boat trailers, treated as two passenger cars in simulation 3RVs, treated as two passenger cars in simulation 4 Vehicle breakdown:
41 passenger vehicles, 148 RVs, treated as 337 passenger cars in simulation Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-7. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ I Peach Bottom Central I 3.5 i WSW I Peach Bottom Inn I 6085 Delta Road I Delta I 48 I 24 I Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Ir I F FIwt 6+ 11s; -- +Zonee ./ -(I 2,5, 10 Mile Rings 10 Figure E-1. Schools within the PBAPS EPZ Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station E-9 Evacuation Time Estimate MOPNO. FacllltytNmne 1 Clermont Elementary School 2 Conowingo Elementary School 3 Darlington Elementary School 7 4 Delta-Peach Bottom Elementary School 15 5 Dublin Elementary School r 5- _ýav6 wn Area Elementary School Quarryvile Harford Christian School 8 Hrforti Friends School L 9 Ke..nna d-Dale High School 7 10 Mrtic Elementary School 11 North Ha-ford ElementarySchool 12 North Horford High School 13 North Harford MiddleSchool 14 Quarryville Elementary School iSSmith Middle School o I z16 Scool,....
S1 South Eastern Middle School East 1 South Eiern Middle School West 1 Swift Middle School Britain o in a-eosJI'O1I 7w 10 fll MMiles KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-2. Preschools
/ Daycares within the PBAPS EPZ Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station C-A Evacuation Time Estimate KLD Engineering, PC.Rev. 0 Figure E-3. Day Camps within the PBAPS EPZ Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station E-11 Evacuation Time Estimate KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-4. Medical Facilities within the PBAPS EPZ Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Map No. Facility Name -~"Rro oOof~r 1 Buck Company 2 Clermont Elementary School 3 Conowiogto Elemenrtary School 4 Harford Christian School Os .7\ 'S Herr Foods Inc.6 Kennard-Daie High School Provide 7 7 Lancaster General A B Marland LavaCo.9 McCorquodale Color Card Co.10 North Harford Elementary School Martic 11 North Harford High School East 12 North Harford Middle School Drumore 13 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 14 Quarryville Presbyterian Retirement Community L North r mre 1S Solanco High School North 16 South Eastern Middle School East 0 17 Sovth Eastern Middle School West2 Swift1,M, ddle Schoo, 7 /Lower Drumore Li Chanceford SouIthBiti South Wk 7oom a Peach Fo on ' t /N t_7 Bottom C ura Easte West 9 1 i~l.,.Cc ot Sfo." C-7 nri.Legend PBAPS 1 Major Employer I Zone.2, 5, 10 Mile Rings Zone 4 G3 Su 0 Zone 5 pyi-lm zns! /port\ Deposit Nto. a4/3/201 .Za 5 10 con00L MA Bn.-P N. Miles 40 Evawiin G-On.IoF.L.Figure E-5. Major Employers within the PBAPS EPZ Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 MapNo. 0 FacliltName 1 Cold Cabin Public Park 2Conowingo Creek oat Launch 3 Conowingo's Fisherman's Park 4 Gamier's Campground 5 Geneva Farm GolfCourse 6 Hilltop Farm Inc.7 Lock 12 Recreation Park 8 Lock 15 Recreation Park 9 Muddy Creek Access Area 10 Muddy Run Recreation Park 11 Nottingham Park 12 Otter Creek Campground 13 Peouea Creek Campground 14 Pilgrim's 0akGoIf Course 15 Rocks 4-H Camp 16 SutSquehannock State Park 17 T-anglewood Manor Golf Course 18 Tucquan Park Family Campground 19 Yogi Bears Jellystone Park 20 YorkFurnace Boat Launch 2 f'N~ ~~~ rticfy4/Not r'0 vu Not LowerC.hanceford 7 t North -is'7 /Lower SothBiti s ý isa fd Fultn Futn East P. aesh WstWest Peachottomoem otitnqham'-jý
&l Wes Dlt 1--( .'q C-nr, Manm land-I-Fawn I , fb I " r IIIII W3 pdivm Legend PBAPS] Campground
¶ Golt 4) Marina* Other Park Zone" 2,5, 10 Mile Rings Zooene 2nme--Port-Deposit'24 G3 0 2 10 Miles I ,+Figure E-6. Recreational Areas within the PBAPS EPZ Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-7. Lodging Facilities within the PBAPS EPZ*o r Q tt1 lIh IlL. D IV C + +LLII Evacuation Time Estimate E-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX F Telephone Survey F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the PBAPS EPZ requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ.Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning.
First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population.
The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ...?")Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A sample size of 381 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population.
The preliminary determination of whether a household was located inside the EPZ was based on "land-line" telephone listings with street addresses.
Telephone surveys were then conducted using those numbers, selected in random order, until the target level of surveys was completed, or the entire calling list was exhausted.
Rejections or households outside the EPZ were discarded.
Numbers with "no answer" were re-cycled for up to ten attempts in different time windows.F.2 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories.
First, the household demographics of the area can be identified.
Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability.
The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or"refused" entry for a response.
It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions.
To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses.
In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 F.2.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.48 people.Household Size 50%A~,I i 0A 0 0'4.7o 40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%i 1 2 3 4 People 5 6 7+Figure F-1. Household Size in the EPZ Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 2.30. Approximately 4.5% of households do not have a vehicle available, as shown in Figure F-2.Vehicle Availability 75 0 4-0 U 40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+Vehicles Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Commuters Figure F-3 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.
Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.The data shows an average of 1.04 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 55% of households have at least one commuter.Commuters Per Household 0 50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%0 1 2 Commuters 3 4 5+Figure F-3. Commuters in Households in the EPZ Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2.2 Evacuation Response Questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency.
These are now discussed: "How many vehicles would your household take if an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home??" The response is shown in Figure F-4. On average, evacuating households would use 1.36 vehicles.Evacuating Vehicles Per Household#A 0 0 80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%3 4 1 2 Vehicles 3 4 Figure F-4. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "If an evacuation notice were given while [the primary commuter]
was at work, do you think they would most likely..." The response is shown in Figure F-5. Of the survey participants who responded, 32 percent indicated they would evacuate from work, 50 percent said they would return home first and then evacuate, and 18 percent indicated that they would stay outside the evacuation zone where they work.Commuter Evacuation Response 60%50%0 c40%0 x 30% -0 5 20%O 10%4-i 0%Evacuate from Work Figure -5. Rom ut rn Evcutomeso e Stay outside Evacuation Zone Figure F-S. Commuter Evacuation Response Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities.
These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.
The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization."How long do you think it would take [the primary commuter]
to get prepared and actually leave work?" Figure F-6 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed within 75 minutes. Eighty-eight percent can leave within 30 minutes.Time to Prepare to Leave Work E E 0 U 0 C UM 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 75 Preparation Time (min)Figure F-6. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "About how long does it take [the primary commuter]
to get from work to home?" Figure F-7 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. Approximately 70 percent of commuters can arrive home within about 30 minutes of leaving work; all within 75 minutes.Work to Home Travel 100%E E 0 0 80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 75 Travel Time (min)Figure F-7. Work to Home Travel Time Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0
"'f an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home (for example, at night or on a weekend), approximately how long would it take your household to prepare to depart? Please assume that you are advised to plan to be away from your home for 3 days." Figure F-8 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.
About 65 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 40 minutes; the remaining households require up to an additional 80 minutes.Preparation Time with Everyone Home 100%_2 80%0 60%0 X.--o 40%4,.20%0.0%0 30 60 90 120 Preparation Time (min)Figure F-8. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation The survey conducted in support of this study did not ask residents how long it would take them to remove snow from their driveway if there were snow on the ground when an evacuation was ordered. As discussed in Section 5.3, the response to the snow removal question in a survey conducted in 2008 in support of ETE development for the Susquehanna Steam Electric Station (SSES) is adapted for this study. SSES is also in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, only 92 miles north of PBAPS. It is assumed that snowfall and snow removal times are comparable in both EPZs."How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?" During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street. Figure F-9 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway.
The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 90 percent of driveways are passable within 60 minutes. The last driveway is cleared two hours and 15 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 minutes after the start of this activity.
Forty percent of respondents answered that they would need less than 15 minutes to render the driveway passable (the first data point plotted is at 15 minutes).
This group includes those who would not clear the snow at all but would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.Time to Remove Snow from Driveway 100%0 0, 0 CL 80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 Time (min)Figure F-9. Time to Clear Driveway of 6-8" of Snow F.3 Conclusions The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time" which can influence evacuation time estimates.
Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ATTACHMENT A Telephone Survey Instrument Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Telephone Survey Instrument Exelon Survey Final v6 -August 23, 2011 INTRODUCTION Hello, my name is and I am calling from MDC Research, a public opinion firm. We are conducting a brief survey to gather information from households in your area about emergency response planning, and we'd like to include your opinions.
This survey is being conducted on behalf of the (insert facility name) Nuclear Facility, and will take approximately 5 minutes to complete.
We are not ttying to sell you anything.
The information gathered fonom this survey will help local agencies more effectively provide community assistance should an emergency situation arise.Can I please speak with an adult member of the household?
SCREENER S 1. What is the zip code of your primary residence?
This is the home where you live the majority of the time. DO NOT READ ZIP CODE LIST List of appropriate zip codes will be displayed here 99999 Location outside the EPZ -THANK & TERMINATE S2. Which of the following categories best describes your age?11 Under 18 yrs of age -ASK FOR REFERRAL or THANK & TERMINATE 12 18 to 24 13 25 to 34 14 35 to 44 15 45 to 54 16 55 to 64 17 65 to 74 18 75 or older 98 (DO NOT READ) Refused QUESTIONNAIRE Q 1 How many people currently reside in your household?
Record: # of residents 98 (DO NOT READ) Refused -THANK & TERMINATE Q2 How many motor vehicles are normally based at your home?Record: # of vehicles 997 None -SKIP TO Q14 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q3 How many members of your household are over the age of 16?Record: # of residents 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q4 How many members of your household are licensed drivers?Record: # of drivers 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q5 How many of the adults in your household work outside the home?Record D1 Skip to Q6A 997 None -Continue to Q5A 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused If refused, explain; The nature of this project is to estimate traffic volumes and flow in the event of an emergency evacuation, so this data is necessary in order for us to continue with the survey.If still refused -THANK & TERMINATE Q5A (ONLY ASK IF Q5=997) Which of the following best describes the non-working adults in your household?
MULTIPLE MENTION -IP NOTE: No more mentions than Q3 mentions.11 Currently unemployed/actively looking for work 12 Retired 13 On Disability or leave of absence 14 Student/continuing education 15 Homemaker 99 Other -please specify SKIP TO Q I Repeat the following Q6A-F sequence for each working adult cited in Q5 For each of the working adults you just referenced, I'd like to ask a few questions related to what their likely actions would be in the case of an emergency evacuation.
I understand that I will be asking you to speculate on what other members of the household may do in this situation, but your best guesses are just fine for our purposes.Q6A Who is the first working adult in the household that you are thinking about? What is their relationship to you?1 Self 2 Spouse or significant other 3 Parent of child 4 Other relative or in-law 5 Roommate 6 Boarder 7 Other Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q6B Which of the following best describes this person's usual work schedule?1 Monday -Friday, 8:00am to 5:00pm 2 Swing Shift 3 Graveyard 4 Evenings and weekends 5 Rotating shifts 6 Other or irregular schedule 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q6C Does this person generally use a personal vehicle to commute back and forth to work?1 Yes 2 No 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q6D If an evacuation notice were given while this person was at work, do you think they would most likely...I Evacuate directly from work 2 Come home first and then evacuate, or 3 Stay outside the evacuation zone where they work [I Skip to Q7 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q6E How long do you think it would take this person to get prepared and actually leave work?(Read list if necessary) 1 Less than 15 minutes 2 15 to 30 minutes 3 30 to 45 minutes 4 45 to 60 minutes 5 More than 60 minutes 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know If response at 6D is 1, skip from here to Q7 Q6F About how long does it take this household member to get from work to home?(Read list if necessary) 1 Less than 15 minutes 2 15 to 30 minutes 3 30 to 45 minutes 4 45 to 60 minutes 5 More than 60 minutes 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q7A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #2 Q8A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #3 Q9A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #4 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q 10 And once everyone who is coming home from work has arrived, how long would it take to prepare and depart from home, taking into consideration whether or not someone else is usually home who may be starting these preparation while they are travelling?
1 Less than 15 minutes 2 15 to 30 minutes 3 30 to 45 minutes 4 45 to 60 minutes 5 More than 60 minutes 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q I1 Are any of the licensed drivers in your household restricted to daytime driving only?1 Yes 2 No 9 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q12 If an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home (for example, at night or on a weekend), approximately how long would it take your household to prepare to depart? Please assume that you are advised to plan to be away from your home for 3 days. Would you say that it would take... READ LIST 1 Less than 20 minutes to depart 2 20 to 40 minutes to depart 3 40 to 60 minutes to depart 4 60 to 90 minutes to depart; or 5 More than 90 minutes to depart Q 13 How many vehicles would your household take if an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home?Record: # of vehicles 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q14 Are any members of your household seasonal residents?
And by seasonal we mean any people who do not reside in your home the majority of the year.I Yes 2 No- SKIP TO Q15 9 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q1 4A (ASK IF Q14=1) How many of your <insert Q1 response>
household members are seasonal?Record: # of seasonal household members 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q14B (ASK IF Q14=l) What seasons do they live in another location away from your home?READ LIST -Multiple Mention 1 Spring 2 Summer 3 Fall Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 4 Winter Q 15 Would any member of your household require a specialized vehicle, such as a wheelchair, van or ambulance, to evacuate from your home in case of an emergency?
1 Yes 2 No 9 (DO NOT READ) Refused This is all the questions we have for you today/tonight.
Thank you for participating in this survey. Your responses will help us to make an accurate prediction of traffic conditions during an emergency situation.
If you have any questions about this survey, please feel free to contact<insert contact name, job title, and phone number/email>.
Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX G Traffic Management Plan G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation simulation modeling.
The traffic and access control plans for the EPZ were provided by the county and state emergency management agencies.These plans were reviewed and the TCPs and ACPs were modeled accordingly.
G.1 Traffic Control Points As discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) are modeled as actuated signals. If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, and the intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system. Table K-2 provides the control type and node number for those nodes which are controlled.
If the existing control was changed due to the point being a TCP, the control type is indicated as "TCP -Actuated" or "TCP -Uncontrolled" in Table K-2.The TCPs and ACPs within the study area are mapped in Figure G-1.G.2 Access Control Points It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the advisory to evacuate to discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ. As discussed in Section 3.6, external traffic was considered on the major routes which traverse the study area 95, US-i, and US-40 -in this study. The generation of the external trips ceases at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the advisory to evacuate in the simulation due to the ACPs.As shown in Figure G-1, the TCPs and ACPs identified in the county and state emergency plans are concentrated along major evacuation routes and on roadways giving access to the EPZ.These TCPs and ACPs would be manned during evacuation by traffic guides who would direct evacuees in the proper direction away from the plant and facilitate the flow of traffic through the intersections.
Detailed descriptions of each of the TCPs and ACPs and the actions to be taken by traffic guides at these intersections are provided in the county and state plans. These actions were modeled explicitly in the DYNEV II system. For additional information, refer to the county and state plans.As discussed in Section 9, this study did not identify any additional intersections as TCPs or ACPs. The existing county and state traffic management plans are comprehensive and do not require revision.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station G-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 In. F nu L Count osrth no .a W Ge g)43, Lancaster County See Figur -[LD York Count North 47y Figure G-S. Overview of Traffic and Access Control Points for the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station G-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure G-2. Traffic and Access Control Points -Cecil County, MD G-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate G-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure G-3. Traffic and Access Control Points -Harford County, MD Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate G-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure G-4. Traffic and Access Control Points -Lancaster County, PA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate G-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure G-5. Traffic and Access Control Points -York County, PA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate G-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0