RS-14-151, Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 5

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Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 5
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Issue date: 04/18/2014
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RS-14-151 KLD TR-636, Rev. 0
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7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover the 34 regions within the PBAPS EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regions for all Evacuation Scenarios.

The ETE for the 2-mile region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5, Table 7-6, and Table 7-7 define the Evacuation Regions considered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.

7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation"Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in Zones for which an Advisory to Evacuate has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.The ETE for the PBAPS EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in Zones outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.

Similarly, it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 86,658 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.

See Table 6-6 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the PBAPS site, has the potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. Zones comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately.
2. Zones comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the 2 mile region is cleared.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate when approximately 90% of the 2 mile region evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile region boundary.5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.

7.3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-9 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ (Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5): The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.

However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

  • Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);e Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, 1 h, 3 h); and e Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.

These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.

Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.

Figure 7-3 displays the traffic congestion within the EPZ 30 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE). At this time, about 30% of transients and employees have begun their evacuation trips, as well as about 10% of the EPZ residents.

The only congested (LOS F) roadways within the EPZ at this time are Pennsylvania State Route 272 (PA-272)northbound in Pennsylvania and the traffic circle at the intersection of Maryland State Route 24 (MD-24) and MD-165 in Maryland.

The congestion along PA-272 is a result of the large population within Providence evacuating toward Lancaster and the limited capacity of PA-272 due to several traffic signals. The congestion at the MD-24/MD-165 traffic circle is a result of Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 the speed and capacity drop within the circle. All other roads in the study area are operating at or below capacity (LOS E). Traffic volume on PA-372 eastbound leaving Quarryville is significant, with LOS E conditions in some areas.At 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays peak congestion within the study area. At this time, 48% of evacuees have begun their evacuation trip and 31% of evacuees have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion along PA-272 northbound within Providence has intensified.

County Route 413 (CR-413) eastbound just beyond the EPZ boundary is congested due to a stop sign at the intersection with PA-272. PA-372 eastbound is congested in Drumore North due to the intersection with PA-272 and the heavy volume on PA-272 northbound.

Congestion has also developed within the population centers of Quarryville, Nottingham and Fawn Grove. Many of the major evacuation routes are experiencing congestion.

Parts of US-i are operating at LOS F as evacuees merge with the external traffic along US-1. Congestion within the Shadow Region has developed in the northeast and southwest as evacuees travel towards Lancaster, PA and Bel Air, MD, respectively.

Finally, congestion exists within the 2-mile Region (Peach Bottom East) as plant evacuees traveling west on Paper Mill Rd to access PA-74 encounter a number of significant bends (low speed and capacity) in the roadway.At 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 25 minutes after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-5, pronounced congestion persists in Providence, Quarryville, Nottingham, and Fawn Grove. Congestion within the 2-mile Region has cleared. At this time, approximately 72% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips, and about half of evacuees have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Parts of 1-95 experience LOS F as evacuees merge with the external-external traffic along 1-95. US-1 is congested northbound and southbound leaving the EPZ. Congestion persists at the MD-24/MD-165 traffic circle.Congestion within the EPZ has dissipated at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-6. The 5-mile radius is clear of congestion.

Queue lengths along major evacuation routes (PA-272, PA-372, PA-851 and US-i) are shorter. Access control points along US-i have been activated stopping the flow of external traffic. At this time, 90% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips and 75% have evacuated.

Congestion within the Shadow Region in the vicinity of Lancaster, PA and Bel Air, MD has intensified.

At 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 30 minutes after the ATE, congestion within Quarryville has cleared, as shown in Figure 7-9. Congestion along PA-272 northbound and US-1 in both directions is continuing to dissipate.

Congestion persists, however, in Nottingham and Fawn Grove within the EPZ, and near Lancaster and Bel Air within the Shadow Region. At this time, 96% of evacuees have begun their evacuation trip and 90% of evacuees have successfully evacuated the EPZ.At 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 5 minutes after the ATE, Figure 7-8 shows the last roadway to clear of congestion in the EPZ is PA-272 eastbound in Nottingham at the interchange with US-1. All other roadways within the EPZ are operating at LOS A. At this time, 99% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips and 99% have evacuated; these data indicate that the trip generation time is dictating the 1 0 0 th percentile ETE as evacuees who depart at this time are encountering minimal traffic congestion or delay. The EPZ is completely clear of congestion 5 minutes later.Congestion persists in the Shadow Region along CR-413 eastbound just beyond the EPZ boundary, and along the major routes in the vicinity of Lancaster, PA and Bel Air, MD.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Finally, at 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 50 minutes after the ATE (Figure 7-9), all vehicles have mobilized and successfully evacuated the EPZ. The last road within the Shadow Region to exhibit LOS C is PA-741 in the vicinity of Strasburg, PA. This roadway clears 5 minutes later.7.4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-10 through Figure 7-23. These figures indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions.

One figure is presented for each scenario considered.

As indicated in Figure 7-10, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.

Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase).

When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by these curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal.

Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Results Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 34 Evacuation Regions and all 14 Evacuation Scenarios.

Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile Region for both staged and un-staged keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles. The tables are organized as follows: Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

-ITbeCnet ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

I ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-3 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-4 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-9.Congestion within the 2- and 5-mile regions clears within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the ATE. This is reflected in the ETE statistics: " The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region RO1 (2-mile region) are 1:40 (hr:min) for all non-snow scenarios and range between 2:15 and 2:25 for snow scenarios.

  • The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region R02 (5-mile region) are 5 to 30 minutes longer than the ETE for Region R01 and range between 1:50 and 2:05 (longer for snow)." The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region R03 (full EPZ) are approximately 30 minutes longer on average than the ETE for Region R02 due to the congestion that is present beyond 5 miles from PBAPS." The 100th percentile ETE for all regions are approximately equal to trip generation time (3:45 for non-snow and 4:45 for snow) as all traffic congestion within the EPZ is clear by 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 10 minutes after the ATE.Comparison of Scenarios 5 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -Fireworks at Mason Dixon Fair -increases the 90th percentile ETE by 15 minutes at most for wind blowing toward the south and west to the EPZ boundary (Regions R19 through R21). Regions R19 through R21 involve the evacuation of Zone 1. Vehicles from Zone 1 utilize MD-136, MD-24, and MD-165 to evacuate, which are the major evacuation routes for transients leaving the Mason Dixon Fair. The convergence of these vehicles congests these routes, prolonging ETE.The 100th percentile ETE are not affected.Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane on US-1 northbound (see Section 2.2, item 8 for additional information)

-increases 9 0 th percentile ETE by at most 10 minutes and has no impact on 100th percentile ETE. The single lane access ramps to US-1 from PA-272 and PA-472 are bottlenecks such that the main thoroughfare of US-1 is underutilized.

As such, the loss of a single lane on US-1 does not significantly impact ETE.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Despite the results of the roadway impact scenario, events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a lane on a major evacuation route, could impact ETE. State and local police could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming any of the major evacuation routes. All efforts should be made to remove the blockage, particularly within the first 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the evacuation when most people begin their evacuation trip.7.6 Staged Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R25 through R34 are the same geographic areas as Regions R02 and R04 through R12, respectively.

The times shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 are when the 2-mile region is 90% clear and 100% clear, respectively.

The objective of a staged evacuation strategy is to ensure the ETE for the 2-mile region is not impacted when evacuating people beyond 2 miles from the plant. As shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4, the ETE for the 2-mile region is unchanged when a staged evacuation is implemented.

Congestion beyond 2 miles does not extend upstream to the extent that it penetrates to within the 2-mile region.To determine the effect of staged evacuation on residents beyond the 2-mile region, Regions R02 and R04 through R12 are compared to Regions R25 through R34, respectively, in Table 7-1.The ETE for each region increases when staging evacuation with some regions increasing by up to 35 minutes. As shown in Figure 5-5, staging the evacuation causes a significant "spike" (sharp increase) in mobilization (trip-generation rate) of evacuating vehicles:

nearly 80 percent of the evacuating vehicles between 2 and 5 miles who have sheltered in place while residents within 2 miles evacuated, begin their evacuation trip over a 15 minute timeframe.

This spike oversaturates evacuation routes, increasing traffic congestion and prolongs ETE.In summary, the staged evacuation protective action strategy provides no benefit to evacuees from within the 2-mile Region and adversely impacts many evacuees located beyond 2 miles from PBAPS. Staged evacuation is not recommended.

Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC guidance calls for the 9 0 th percentile).

The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table may then be identified using the following procedure:

1. Identify the applicable Scenario:* Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)* Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend* Time of Day" Midday" Evening" Weather Condition" Good Weather" Rain" Snow" Special Event" Mason Dixon Fair" Road Closure (One lane on US-i northbound)
  • Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered" Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:

0 The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for rain apply.0 The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for snow apply.* The seasons are defined as follows: " Summer assumes that public schools are not in session." Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region:* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction).

This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:

towards N, NNE, NE, ...* Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are given below: 0 2 Miles (Region RO1)0 To 5 Miles (Regions R02, and R04 through R12)0 To EPZ Boundary (Regions R03, R13 through R24)* Enter Table 7-5 through Table 7-7 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on the distance that the selected Region extends from the plant.Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.

Then, for the Scenario identified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 through Table 7-4 are labeled with the Scenario numbers.Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the Scenario number defined in Step 1.* Identify the row in the table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in Step 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.

Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:

  • Sunday, August 10th at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is toward the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radius and downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).
  • The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population from within the impacted Region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 9 0 th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows: 1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors.

However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-6 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction toward the NE and read Region R14.3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and Region R14. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R14; it contains the ETE value of 2:00.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Su mer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer MdekWeed MdentMidweek Midweek Midweek MdekWeed WeedMdekWeekend Weekend WeekendMiwe Midday Mid day Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good GoodI Rain Snow Weathe Weathe Snw God SecilRoda Weather Weather Weather Weather IWahreter Ent Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R02 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:50 1:50 2:30 1:50 1:45 2:05 R03 2:30 2:40 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:30 2:35 3:10 2:20 2:30 3:05 2:15 2:20 2:35 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:40 1:45 1:55 1:55 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:25 1:45 1:45 1:55 ROS 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:50 1:50 2:25 1:50 1:50 2:00 R06 2:00 2:00 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:35 1:50 1:50 2:30 1:50 1:50 2:00 R07 1:55 1:55 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 1:55 R08 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:50 1:50 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:50 2:30 1:45 1:50 2:05 R09 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:00 R10 2:00 2:00 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:45 2:00 R11 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:30 1:45 1:40 1:55 R12 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:40 1:45 2:00 2:00 2:35 1:45 1:45 2:25 1:45 1:45 1:55 S-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R13 2:15 2:25 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:15 2:20 2:55 2:05 2:10 2:45 2:00 2:05 2:15 R14 2:10 2:15 2:00 2:00 1:55 2:10 2:15 2:50 1:55 2:00 2:35 1:55 1:55 2:10 RIS 2:20 2:20 2:15 2:20 2:15 2:20 2:20 2:55 2:15 2:20 2:45 2:15 2:15 2:20 R16 2:35 2:45 2:35 2:45 2:15 2:30 2:40 3:15 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:15 2:15 2:45 R17 2:20 2:30 2:15 2:20 2:00 2:15 2:25 3:00 2:15 2:15 2:50 1:55 2:00 2:20 R18 2:20 2:30 2:15 2:25 1:55 2:20 2:30 3:00 2:15 2:20 2:55 1:55 1:55 2:20 R19 2:15 2:20 2:05 2:10 1:55 2:15 2:20 2:50 2:05 2:10 2:45 2:00 2:10 2:15 R20 2:20 2:30 2:10 2:15 2:10 2:25 2:30 3:05 2:10 2:15 2:50 2:10 2:25 2:20 R21 2:20 2:30 2:10 2:15 2:15 2:25 2:30 3:05 2:10 2:15 2:50 2:10 2:25 2:20 R22 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:20 2:15 2:25 2:35 3:10 2:15 2:25 3:00 2:15 2:20 2:25 R23 2:05 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 1:45 1:45 2:30 1:50 1:45 2:05 R24 2:15 2:20 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:15 2:15 2:55 2:00 2:05 2:45 1:55 2:00 2:15 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R25 2:20 2:20 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:20 2:20 2:55 2:15 2:15 2:50 2:15 2:15 2:20 R26 2:10 2:10 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:15 2:15 2:10 R27 2:15 2:15 2:10 2:10 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:50 2:15 2:15 2:50 2:15 2:15 2:15 R28 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 2:05 2:05 2:05 R29 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 2:05 2:05 2:05 R30 2:20 2:25 2:20 2:20 2:15 2:25 2:25 3:00 2:20 2:20 2:55 2:20 2:15 2:20 R31 2:20 2:25 2:20 2:20 2:15 2:25 2:25 3:00 2:20 2:20 2:55 2:20 2:15 2:20 R32 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:45 2:05 2:10 2:45 2:05 2:05 2:10 R33 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:45 2:05 2:05 2:45 2:05 2:05 2:05 R34 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:45 2:10 2:10 2:45 2:10 2:10 2:10 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer M____ ___ nirwek 2-MleRegon_5MilMRginendEP Midweek Weekend Miwe Midweek Weekend MidweekMiwe Mdek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Mid day Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Weathe Weathe Snw God SecilRoda Weather Weather Weather Weather I IWahreter Ent Impact-Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R02 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R03 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 ROS 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R06 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R07 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R08 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R09 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 Ri0 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R11 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R12 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R13 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R14 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R15 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R16 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R17 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R18 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R19 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R20 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R21 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R22 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R23 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 R24 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Good Good Rain S Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R25 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R26 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R27 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R28 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R29 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R30 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R31 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R32 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R33 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 R34 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 4:50 3:50 3:50 3:50 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend MiUseev Midweek Weekend Midweek Region Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Reio oo Ri Go Rin God God Ran Snw Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Rgo Weather Go Ran Weather Go Ran Weather God Weather God R In So Weather Weather Event Impact Un-staged Evacuation Mile and S-Mile Region R02 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 Un-staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Miles R04 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R02 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R06 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R07 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R08 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R09 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 RIO 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 ROB 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R12 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R10_ 1:40_ 1:40 StagedEvacuation Mile Region 1:40 1:40 2:15 10 : 25 4:0: R25 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40____Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to S Miles R26 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R27 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R28 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R29 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R30 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R31 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R32 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R33 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 R34 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:40 1:40 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend Un-taeev Midweek Weekend Midweek Region Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Ran Good Good Rin So Good IRain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Ri Weather Weather RiI SnwWeather]

Wea~ther Event Impact Un-staged Evacuation Mile and 5-Mile Region R01 3:45 3:45 13:45 3:45 J3:45 3:45 3:45 [4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 13:45 ]3:45 [3:45 R02 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 1 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 Un-staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Miles R04 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R05 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R06 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R07 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 ROB 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R09 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R10 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R11 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R12 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 Staged Evacuation

-S-Mile Region R25 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 [ 3:45 [ 3:45 13:45 14:45 1 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R26 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R27 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R28 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R29 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R30 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R31 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R32 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R33 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 R34 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 4:45 3:45 3:45 3:45 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions (Regions R01-R12)2-Mile 5-Mile Full Region

Description:

_ing _ _in TP_ Evacuate 2-Mile Radius and Downwind to S Miles RegionNumber:

Ring Ring EPZ Region Number: ROl R02 R03 R04 I OS R6 R07 IROB R09 I R1O I R11 I R12 Wind Direction Toward: N/A N/A N/A N, NNE NE, E, ENE ESE, SE S, SSE SSW, SW WSW WN WNW NW NNW Zone Delta I I x x Drumore North I I_____ t 1- t 1 Drumore South L ____ -~ -I- J .5-East Drumore Fawn Fawn Grove Fulton East Fulton West Little Britain Lower Chanceford North Lower Chanceford South Martic Peach Bottom Central Peach Bottom East Peach Bottom West Providence Quarryville West Nottingham Zone 1 Zone 2___ + 4 + + + + + +-wIn_ _ 4 .4 + 4 + +_____ 4 -4 + I._____ 4 4 4 4.x Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-6. Description of Evacuation Regions (Regions R13-R24)Region

Description:

Evacuate S-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Region Number: R13 IR14 IR15 IR16 IR17 IR18I R19 IR20 IR21 IR22 FR2 3 R24 Wind Direction Toward: N, NE ENE E, SE SSE S, SW, W WNW NW NNW NNE ESE SSW WSW Zone Delta Drumore North Drumore South East Drumore Fawn Fawn Grove Fulton East Fulton West Little Britain Lower Chanceford North I Lower Chanceford South Martic Peach Bottom Central Peach Bottom East Peach Bottom West Providence Quarryville West Nottingham I I d~zzIE77 I I I I I I Zone 1 I I I Zone 2 I I I Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 7nna r.I I I I I I I I Zone(s) Shelter-in-Place Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-7. Description of Evacuation Regions (Regions R25-R34)Region

Description:

Staged Evacuation Mile Radius Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to 5 Miles Region Number: R25 R26 R27 R28 R29 R30 R31 R32 R33 R34 5-Mile N, NE, E, W Wind Direction Toward: ESE, SSE SSW, WSW NW NNW Ring NNE ENE WNW SE SW Drumore North Orumore South East Drumore Fawn Fawn Grove Fulton East Fulton West Little Britain Lower Chanceford North Lower Chanceford South ___I I I ___Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 En Sv ýsquehanna 41-SRiver G -~t~Orgetown Th~~l~Martic

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Congestion Patterns at 00:30 so East 30 Yo'Aand prospea, 5outh PdrkesDurg, ' I 0'A Y .o .e N:Red LO martild East F'lto'11 erStOwn Drumore Lower North lo, 1rhanceto 014 1 North Drumom sk (27" Ut" Ch.nefond

inI e -1 fo s-th)7;ot P"', ch utton., East w-t Red, stea awn rovo Noffingham Peach t Weý t -_ t "-ý 6.ti6 r Freevom I-k t Minjill.nd wo 5 ne 6 A 2l LOS-7 46" -1 1 -24,1 Zone 3 ý-z o L NI A B C Legend o M D J PBAPS race Zone 'f IF 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings Shadow Region 0 10$ Miles kýcl l E.&-Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Congestion Patterns at 01
00 .so A-E ast 4lleýý- orkana ProSpeCt, 7 --Prezu-goi~l Y Q~Mdtl~hh)martic/
  • hencmfo Roads Nrh b,77 L -tewartstow

-&mNffhmýz' Wes FanGo otm/ et IIýuga Z--r Evacuation Tim EsiaeRv0 an ster.- o-Congestion Patterns at 01:25 30 10-1 East 50,7in KOAald Prospea, -CO a týeý-ZW#e pj'k-t-Christian a'24 Al%Y, n Red L, 47 MaC Ent-ýDrum*re FýItvp Lýer Wfft North Gro-DMnWft U MWn (74 SOUM -2 Fu I Hon En t Win-W"t Nttln W pl- Igha 21 h owns pert"autrani

ýMa farid-Cm., ty In in. J4 Z Zýe 4 401 zo;ie 6 zon* I 1, LOS kv." Zýe 3 A rt CA A, 40 B C 01-'Legend bar ei D PBAPS Hd,,e 45rJCe E Zone f F 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings A Shadow Region 0 5 10 ESýl ft.11ý1 D- WNNMMWNC===ý Miles--- W) 1,1-j, E.Ion Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour and 25 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Congestion Patterns at 02:00 ~Ml~e, Y~rkana Pl*SP~Ct ~.,.Parkesbur aieýu/lv Qhrstian 211 Witeil-sten Lowr North, 0,, Shadow ~~~Dumr RW'nDt_3o~41b1~)

Copyight S0,10 0f,~ tot Mie CD irpy~n,~ Erlon Geeratio Evacatio TieEtmaeRv Congestion Patterns at 02:3 I/)~~3O Yoe~ 5 -'7ý "EN " PBAPS4%Fto N/2 ,1,15Ml i~~~Lw N'1 io-F 1* ufwShadowFaw Regioawnnla0 5n 10I(a Figure 77. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours and 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev, 0 Congestion Patterns at 03:05 so I 3b'last alp Avspect pd'kest"'G' oýrisna.. "z Atple, jjý'Q- k Yoe 7ý IN" NOW Red bo 71 1-114) Morth: Felton Dmnw ne LOW f Novth Chan hlo,ý -ROids DrUMore 67' Uttle oi, South A G an 'Elfital South -2 4*son Funon't :nt WW Ir 11 sw VOVQ N."Ingtý-m I"'Dolts I Ir ýt , , ýýYew -I Ln.WIC'Aeeife )týk(:,, WU won't c'al 5,1' 1"f' zone zono, 6 01 Y 7ýns 6 Zone 2 zon LOS Zone 3 No A Ole 40 to 400 C Legend D Hývre de'PBAPS 'r E Zone-F 40 2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings 5 10 0 W- 214 Shadow Region ýMiles Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours and 5 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

-V- " rOIU1111-I -KeX-_---

/ ' I..Yorkan -. POPC .. Pautkesb_

rg Zone Figu*Congestion Patten a 3 0:ta5 Yoan4'/sect V EvauaiotTmeEsimteRe.

'4/14'Figure 7-9. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hou~~rs n 0MntsatrteAvsr oEaut Peac BotomAtomc PwerStaion

-27KLDEngieerngP.C Evacuationrti TieEsiatsevt Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%CU 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 1 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%Ui ZU 0 C (U 0 I-45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 240 270 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 2 for Region R03 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2-Mile Region Mile Region-Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%45 40 35 C.-m~ 30 M 25 IAo 20~ .15> 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2-Mile Region Mile RegionýEntire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%LUA 0 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 4 for Region R03 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%tw.-C GI 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2-Mile Region Mile Region-Entire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%M LU 0 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 6 for Region R03 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%tw wo-a,.Z, 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%U -u> , 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 330 Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 8 for Region R03 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%M M6 0 -45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 9 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2-Mile Region Mile Region-Entire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%4r-Ui WU 45 40 35 30% 25 5 20-15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 10 for Region R03 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

  • 90%0 100%45 40 35 C 7 302520 S15>~ 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 6 100%Ui:E 45 40 35 30 25 6 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 12 for Region R03 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%hA.6~ID U ID w C,-c C, 0 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)-2-Mile Region Mile Region-Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%(U LU 7, 45 40 35 30 25 R 20 I-15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-23. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 14 for Region R03 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles.

The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, preschools, day camps, and medical facilities (3) homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:

  • Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. It is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes for school buses and 120 minutes for transit dependent buses extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.

Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the PBAPS EPZ indicates that schoolchildren will be evacuated to host schools, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at the host schools.As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency.

Therefore, children are evacuated to host schools. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.

This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.

This study assumes that pre-schools and day camps are evacuated to reception centers and parents will pick up these children at the reception centers.The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to: 0 Estimate demand for transit service Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

  • Estimate time to perform all transit functions* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the host schools and reception centers 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service based on the percentage of households with no vehicle available.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:* Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.

For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.

The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.

However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends (IES, 1981). Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.[20+( 2 x 10)] + 40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 977 people. Therefore, a total of 33 bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the PBAPS EPZ: P = (EPZ Population

+ Average HH Size of EPZ) x % of HH with 0 Vehicles x Average HH Size of HH with 0 Vehicles Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 P = (57,3001 + 2.48) x 4.5% x 1.88 = 1,954 B = (0.5 x P) + 30 = 33 According to the telephone survey results, 4.5% of households in the EPZ do not have access to a vehicle (Figure F-2) and there are 1.88 people per house -on average -in households with no vehicles available.

The Pennsylvania Dutch (Amish) residents within the PBAPS EPZ are another group of transit-dependent population.

According to Section 3.1.2, there are a total of 1,416 women and children within the EPZ which would require transportation assistance.

Evacuating the transit-dependent Amish population requires 50 buses. While only 48 buses are needed from a capacity perspective, 2 additional buses are assigned to ensure adequate buses are available for each township.

The total number of transit-dependent persons for the EPZ is 2,393 (977+1,416), requiring 83 buses for evacuation (33+50).The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by Exelon (discussed below in Section 8.5).This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not register with their local emergency response agency.8.2 School Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school, pre-school, and day camp population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all facilities within the EPZ for the 2012 school year.The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

  • No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and pre-schools, 50 for middle and high schools, and 30 for day camps.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.It is recommended that the counties in the EPZ introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot, to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated.

In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school The total Amish population within the EPZ (2,295 -Table 3-1) was subtracted from the total EPZ permanent resident population (59,595 -Table 3-2) as the Amish are treated separately in estimating the transit dependent population.

Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).

Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Table 8-3 presents a list of the host facilities for each school, pre-school, and day camp in the EPZ. Children will be transported to these facilities where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.8.3 Medical Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. A total of 461 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.

The current census (including breakdown of ambulatory, wheelchair bound and bedridden persons) for each facility was provided by Exelon and from phone calls made to some of the facilities.

The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of wheelchair van runs assumes 4 wheelchairs per trip, the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip, and the number of ambulance runs assumes 2 bed-ridden patients per trip.8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.

In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the host school or reception center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.

For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.

The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Activity:

Mobilize Drivers (A-4B--)C4 Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.Activity:

Board Passengers (C->D)A loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is assumed.For multiple stops along a pick-up route, (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

2v T =t +B +t =B +2t= B+ 2, a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.

The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is: P= =B V-a a Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:

Travel to EPZ Boundary (D--E)School, Pre-school, and Day Camp Evacuation Transportation resources available provided by Exelon and by the county emergency management agencies are summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table are the number of buses needed to evacuate schools, pre-schools, day camps, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, and homebound special needs population (discussed below in Section 8.5). These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate all transit-dependent people in a single wave.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The buses servicing the schools, preschools, and day camps are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate host school. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: Average Speed Zn11 length of link i (mi) 60 min.SDelay on link i (min. ) + length of link i (mi.) 60 amin.Y~U 1 { elay o link (m.).+ Xlhr.J current speed on link i The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools, preschools, and day camps in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school, pre-school and day camp evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the host school or Reception Center was computed assuming an average speed of 50 mph, 45 mph, and 40 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 50 mph (45 mph for rain and 40 mph for snow) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 50 mph. The school bus speed limit for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is 50 mph on divided limited access highways and 40 mph on all other highways.

The school bus speed limit for the State of Maryland is 50 mph on state routes. A maximum bus speed of 50 mph (good weather)was used in this study.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools, pre-schools, and day camps in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the host school (H.S.) or Reception Center (R.C.). The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Activities A->B-)C, C-'D, and D->E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 26 = 2:15 for Conowingo Elementary School, in good weather, rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes).

The average ETE for a single-wave evacuation of schools, pre-schools and day camps is about 25 minutes shorter than the 90th percentile ETE for the general population for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03). The evacuation time to the host school or Reception Center is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E->F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.

As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), nearly all (96%)evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 120 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. Transit-dependent staging areas are defined in the county emergency plans (with the exception of Harford County). The exact route traveled is not specified; therefore, routes were developed via the shortest path from the staging area to the respective Reception Center. Routes from these staging areas are shown in Figure 8-2 and listed in Table 8-10. For Harford County (Zone 1 through Zone 5), routes were developed to service the major evacuation routes within the county. It is assumed that residents will walk to the staging area or the routes (Harford County) to flag down a bus, and that they can complete their mobilization within the 120 minute bus mobilization time during good weather (130 minutes and 140 minutes in rain and snow, respectively).

Zones with Amish residents (Drumore, East Drumore, Fulton, Little Britain, and Providence) have high transit-dependent populations and require more buses than the other routes (Table 8-10). As such, multiple groups of buses are assigned to these routes. The start of service for subsequent groups of buses on these routes is separated by 15 minute headways, as shown in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The use of bus headways ensures that those people who take longer to mobilize will be picked up.As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop. Longer pickup times of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow, respectively.

The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.

Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school, pre-school and day camp evacuation.

Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the bus route originating from the Delta/Peach Bottom Municipal Building is computed as 120 + 44 + 30 = 3:15 for good weather. Here, 44 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 minutes is the time to travel 13 miles at 17.7 mph -the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 120 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.

Activity:

Travel to Reception Centers (E->F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.

Assumed bus speeds of 50 mph, 45 mph, and 40 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity:

Passengers Leave Bus (F->G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.Activity:

Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G-'C)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the reception center.The second-wave ETE for the bus route originating from the Delta/Peach Bottom Municipal Building is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at reception center at 3:32 in good weather (3:15 to exit EPZ + 17 minute travel time to reception center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 17 minutes (equal to travel time to reception center) + 15 minutes (13 miles @ 50 mph to return to the start of the route) + 19 minutes (13 miles @ 41.7 mph to traverse the route providing second-wave bus service)=

51 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 3:15 + 0:17 + 0:15 + 0:51 + 0:30 = 5:10 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a one-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is about 20 minutes longer than the ETE for the general population at the 9 0 th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03). The two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 45 minutes longer on average than the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except: Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients.* Wheelchair vans can accommodate 4 patients.* Ambulances can accommodate 2 patients* Loading times of 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes per patient are assumed for ambulatory patients, wheelchair-bound patients, and bedridden patients, respectively.

Table 8-4 indicates that 14 bus runs, 37 wheelchair van runs, and 3 ambulance runs are needed to service all of the medical facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the counties can collectively provide 1,482 buses, 34 minibuses, 15 vans, 266 wheelchair vans, and 160 ambulances.

Thus, there are ample resources to evacuate the ambulatory, wheelchair-bound, and bed ridden persons from the medical facilities in a single wave.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes (100 in rain and 110 in snow). Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.

Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.

Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 50 mph (45 mph for rain and 40 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary.

The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses and wheelchair vans at capacity is assumed such that the maximum loading times for buses, wheelchair vans, and ambulances are 30, 20, and 30 minutes, respectively.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the calculation of ETE for Allcare Assisted Living with 6 ambulatory residents during good weather is: ETE: 90 + 1 x 6 + 5 = 101 min. or 1:45 (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes)It is assumed that the medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities outside of the EPZ. Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis.8.5 Special Needs Population The special needs population registered within the EPZ was provided by Exelon. There are 54 homebound special needs people within the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate.

Using the same non-ambulatory breakdown (approximately 96% wheelchair bound Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 and 4% bedridden) for medical facilities within the EPZ (Table 8-4), 52 special needs people would require a wheelchair accessible vehicle and 2 would require an ambulance.

ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.

The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle.It is conservatively assumed that wheelchair households are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Wheelchair van speeds approximate 20 mph between households and ambulance speeds approximate 30 mph in good weather (10% slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minutes were used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow). Loading times of 5 minutes and 15 minutes per person are assumed for wheelchair bound people and bedridden people, respectively.

The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 50 mph (45 mph for rain and 40 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 52 wheelchair households need to be serviced.

Given a wheelchair van capacity of 4 people, 13 wheelchair vans are needed to service the population.

While only 13 wheelchair vans are needed from a capacity perspective, if 17 wheelchair vans are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require about 3 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 17 wheelchair vans are deployed, each with about 3 stops, to service a total of 52 HH.2. ETE is equal to the total time to complete the following activities:
a. Bus arrive at the first pickup location:

90 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:

2 @ 9 minutes = 18 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:

2 @ 5 minutes = 10 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:

9 minutes (5 miles @ 32.2 mph).ETE: 90 + 5 + 18 + 10 + 9 = 2:15 rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes Table 8-5 indicates that there are sufficient transportation resources available in the EPZ to evacuate the medical facilities and the homebound special needs population simultaneously.

The average ETE for a single wave evacuation of the homebound special needs population is approximately equal to the general population ETE at the 9 0 th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03).Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 (Subsequent Wave)Time A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Reception Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service A--> B Driver Mobilization B-*C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C-->D Passengers Board the Bus D-4E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E-- F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZ F-+G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 7 7 Transit Dependent 0P'In ,dne Bus Routes/2 / Psydmne i MnIl 7, Delta/Peach Bottom Municipal Bldg b--'.Drumore Municipal Bldg.7 Waivle Municipal East Drumore Municipal Bldg. b J ~.*~B Maic 7 Fawn Grove/Fawn Municipal Bldg. b--MuniipalBld.

-..-.Fulton Municipal Bldg.71~ .Little Britain Municipal Bldg. b.Crra' Lower Chanceford Municipal Bldg. 10 Noh-' Iurnicpa I Bldg , Mactic Municipal Bldg.Ilein Municialld Prvdne Municipal Bldg. b lower 1.IL uarryville Municipal Bldg.Chancefd Muniial B' -Litl 'M West Nottingham Municipal Bldg. 11 Bldg. Municip Bldg SouSouth.awn -o awn- Fawn A" wa/F~awnGr alFl~ ~ Munficipal

~Wa Moorgiput kkgunird. , ,tdg' i Wan IclnaliBldg..

P~ennsla ai-Uland-V , A' -7 Legend______-________

--___ an Eiw/roa. io, fWi.I.. 3... c L ,+PBAPS"+" " " <0 Pick Up Point%, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings i-, I Shadow Region ..451_Pt N,l,, .l / il iles ,,,,,. ~ ~ KL .... .. m:; _ -". "+G _ ,;Figure 8-2. PBAPS Transit-Dependent Bus Routes within Pennsylvania Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 7 Transit Dependent f Bus Routes 7 Providence' Quaffivine Zone 6 Pick Up -V-7, Zone 6 Pick Up -2)--42 Zone 6 Pick Up -3)--Zone I Zone 2 & Zone 4 R-_"v Zone 3 & Zone 5 )NI Rustle North,-t 10 Lttl 7 x, Wes- Y A OM r Fawý<utt6n V con" Peach- gh.rn-weer enn rr"nio aýyland 23 7__Zone I 4 ppel6s" 7 V pilý6--P-.'ic'k UP W 6 Legend e -zone 3 PBAPS 0 Pick Up Point Zone 7ý1 F, 2, 5, 10 Mile Rings 5 10 Shadow Region Miles Figure 8-3. PBAPS Transit-Dependent Bus Routes within Maryland Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates Avrg Percent Per. n Siz Toa Pepl Popuatio Average ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~6 .H wih TtlH o H Pol siae eurn eurn 201 -P *. Siz 2010 -P *o wit No wt o Reurn ids g Pulc Pbi I 57,300 I 2.48 I 23,105 I 4.5% I 1,040 1 1.88 1 1,954 1 50% 1 977 1 1.7% 1 2 The total Amish population within the EPZ (2,295 -Table 3-1) was subtracted from the total EPZ permanent resident population (59,595 -Table 3-2) as the Amish are treated separately in estimating the transit dependent population.

Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-2. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Population Demand Estimates~ru~t'mL'IIaar~.ubeu~i~u~n Busuu~ues Zone~~~~~~~~

FaiiyN meErlm nt Rqie Schol Zone 6 I Conowingo Elementary School 567 9 Cecil County Subtotal.

5679 Zone 1 Harford Friends School 40 1 Zone 1 North Harford Elementary School 490 7 Zone 1 North Harford High School 1,393 28 Zone 1 North Harford Middle School 1,113 23 Zone 2 Harford Christian School 413 8 Zone 3 Darlington Elementary School 123 2 Zone 3 Dublin Elementary School 247 4 Harford County Subtotal:

3,819 73 East Drumore Solanco Senior High School 1,219 25 Fulton East Clermont Elementary School 532 8 Fulton East Swift Middle School 465 10 Martic Martic Elementary School 374 6 Quarryville Quarryville Elementary School 459 7 Shadow Region 3 Smith Middle School 421 9 Lancaster County Subtotal:

3,470 65-ORK -COUNY, -P Fawn Fawn Area Elementary School 315 5 Fawn South Eastern Middle School East 423 9 Fawn South Eastern Middle School West 456 10 Fawn Grove Kennard-Dale High School 936 19 Peach Bottom Central Delta-Peach Bottom Elementary School 330 5 York County Subtotal:

2,460 48 Zoe1Childrens Center of North Harford 48 1 Zone 1 Christian Childcare Center 33 1 Zone 3 Wilson Community Center 28 1 Harford County Subtotal:

109 3 Facility is located just beyond the EPZ boundary; however, the facility will evacuate as per county plans.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 tast urumore Mecnanlc urove LUAL) 15 1 East Drumore The Crayon Box Day Care Center 10 1 Providence Busy Hands Daycare 12 1 Quarryville Shining Stars Daycare 30 1 Lancaster County.Sbotl 65 4 Zone 6 Camp Conowingo GSA 275 10 Zone 3 Camp Ramblewood 300 10 Zone 3 Indian Lake Christian Camp 110 4 Zone 5 Broadcreek Memorial Camp 1,000 34 Harford County Subtotal:

1,600 55 Drumore North Camp Andrews 140 5 Little Britain Camp John H. Ware 300 10 Lancaster County Subtotal:

440 1S Lower Chanceford NrhCamp Donegal 7 Yonrk County ViuhtotaI I 7a I I I Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-3. School, Pre-school, and Day Camp Host Facilities Facilit NaeHsFclt Conowingo Elementary School Calvert Elementary I,~ SA R CONYM North Harford High School C. Milton Wright High Dublin Elementary School Churchville Elementary Harford Friends School Forest Hill Elementary North Harford Middle School Hickory Elementary Darlington Elementary School Meadowvale Elementary School North Harford Elementary School North Bend Elementary Harford Christian School Upper Cross Roads Baptist Church Clermont Elementary School Quarryville Elementary School Smith Middle School Lampeter-Strasburg Campus Solanco Senior High School Swift Middle School Martic Elementary School Marticville Middle School Delta-Peach Bottom Elementary School Fawn Area Elementary School Kennard-Dale High School Susquehannock High School South Eastern Middle School East South Eastern Middle School West BSA Camp Horseshoe Rising Sun High School Camp Conowingo GSA Rsn u ihSho Camp Habonim Fallston High School Christian Childcare Center Broadcreek Memorial Camp Camp Ramblewood Harford Community College Indian Lake Christian Camp Wilson Community Center Childrens Center of North Harford YMCA Bel Air Child Care Center Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Facility Name Host Facility LANCASTER COUNTY, PA Camp John H. Ware Rising Sun High School Busy Hands Daycare Camp Andrews Mechanic Grove CLASP Willow Street Career and Technology Center Shining Stars Daycare The Crayon Box Day Care Center Camp Donegal Red Lion Senior High School Delta Christian Academy iDevlte Justion Cdcademy Susquehannock High School Kidsville Junction Childcare Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit Demand t Zone 6 Allcare Assisted Living Conowingo 8 6 2 1 0 Zone 6 Conowingo Veterans Center Conowingo 18 16 2 1 0 Zone 6 Liberty Garden Elderly Care Conowingo 9 4 3 2 1 Cecil County Subtotal.43 35 26 7 2 3 3 I Zone 1 Hart Heritage Estate I Street 39 34 25 7 2 1 2 1 Harford County Subtotal:

39 34 25 7 1 2 1 East Drumore Country View Manor Quarryville 24 20 20 0 0 1 0 0 East Drumore Quarryville Presbyterian Quarryville 375 372 242 128 2 9 32 1 Retirement Community L-------___--------_

Lancaster County Subtotal:

399 392 262 128 10 32 1-11-io -il -=--7 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuhportuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuhnu Whechi Cecil County, MD 175 0 15 1 20 20 Harford County, MD 400 0 0 1 100 4 Lancaster County, PA L 194 34 0 2 1 70 York County, PA 1 713 0 1 0 1 144 1 66 1 R u Needed Schools, Pre-Schools, Day Camps (Table 8-2): 315 0 0 0 0 Medical Facilities (Table 8-4): 14 0 0 37 3 Transit-Dependent Population (Table 8-10): 83 0 0 0 0 Homebound Special Needs (Table 8-17): 0 0 0 17 1 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions Bu[s -.~ em u~1Ir~.r~s Rout Noe Trvre frmRut trtt.1 Clermont Elementary School, Swift Middle School 729,730,731,733,734,735,736,737,738,739, 740,741,742,743,744,745,747,748,750,751, 752,753,754,1587,756,759,758,760,1677 2 Conowingo Elementary 53, 52, 51, 50, 49, 48, 47 385, 386, 387, 388, 389, 390, 392,414, 482, 483, 3 Delta-Peach Bottom Elementary School 484, 485, 487, 488, 591, 592, 593, 594, 595, 596, 598, 565, 566, 567, 568, 571, 572, 573, 574, 576, 577, 578, 579 Fawn Area Elementary School, Kennard 4 Dale High School, South Eastern Middle 568, 571, 572, 573, 574, 576, 577, 578, 579 School East, South Eastern Middle School West, Kidsville Junction Childcare 5 Martic Elementary School 1236, 1668, 1237, 886 Solanco Senior High School, The Crayon 748, 750, 751, 752, 753, 754, 1587, 756, 759, Box Day Care Center 758, 760, 1677 7 Smith Middle School 757, 1737, 758, 760, 1677 8 Quarryville Elementary School, Shining 756, 757, 1737, 758, 760, 1677 Stars Daycare 9 Darlington Elementary School, Wilson 267, 268, 269, 270, 271, 272, 273 Community Center, Camp Ramblewood 409, 410, 411, 412, 68, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247, 10 Dublin Elementary School24 249 422, 423, 1838, 1837, 424, 425, 426, 428, 429, 11 North Harford Elementary School43 430 12 North Harford Middle School 1838, 1837, 424, 1839, 509, 511, 513, 515, 517, 518, 519, 521, 522, 523, 524, 525, 526, 527, 528 423, 1838, 1837, 424, 1839, 509, 511, 513, 515, 13 North Harford High School 517, 518, 519, 521, 522, 523, 524, 525, 526, 527, 528 14 Harford Christian School 404, 405, 406, 408, 323, 409, 410, 411, 412, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74 Harford Friends School, Childrens Center 511, 513, 515, 517, 518, 519, 521, 522, 523, 524, of North Harford 525, 526, 527, 528 1539, 413, 414, 482, 483, 484, 485, 487, 488, 16 Delta Christian Academy 591, 592, 593, 594, 595, 596, 598, 565, 566, 567, 568, 571, 572, 573, 574, 576, 577, 578, 579 739, 740, 741, 742, 743, 744, 745, 747, 748, 750, 17 Mechanic Grove CLASP 751, 752, 753, 754, 1587, 756, 759, 758, 760, 1677 18 Busy Hands Daycare 1612, 711, 712 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Rout Noe Traere fro Rot Str to 0 Nube Decrpto Boundar 19 Christian Childcare Center 416, 417, 418, 419, 420, 421, 422, 423, 1838, 1837, 424, 1839, 509, 511, 513, 515, 517, 518, 519,521,522,523,524,525,526,527,528 20 Quarryville Presbyterian Retirement 1587,756,759,758,760,1677 Community 1762, 1761, 699, 700, 701, 1605, 703, 1608, 705, 706, 707, 1610, 708, 709, 710 22 Cinnamon Woods, Camp Conowingo GSA 1272, 53, 52, 51, 50, 49, 48, 47 513, 515, 517, 518, 519, 521, 522, 523, 524, 525, 23 Hart Heritage Estate52,2758 526, 527, 528 24 Allcare Assisted Living 234, 235, 236, 142 25 Liberty Garden Elderly Care 233, 234, 235, 236, 142 26 Conowingo Veterans Center 1787, 51, 50, 49, 48, 47 399, 401, 403, 404, 405, 406, 408, 323, 409, 410, 411, 412, 68, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247, 249 344, 342, 341, 340, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 90, 65, 66, 67, 68, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247, 249 29 BSA Camp Horseshoe 215, 123, 124 30 Camp John H. Ware 1568, 180, 181 31 Camp Donegal, Transit Dependent

-620, 622, 623, 624, 625, 626, 628, 629, 630, 631, Lower Chanceford Municipal Bldg. 632, 633, 635 1549, 1548, 695, 696, 698, 1764, 699, 700, 701, 32 Camp Andrews 1605, 703, 1608, 705, 706, 707, 1610, 708, 709, 710 33 Camp Habonim 1384, 1383, 528 34 Transit Dependent

-Zone 6 Pick Up -1 1270, 1271, 1272, 53, 52, 51, 50, 49, 48, 47 35 Transit Dependent

-Zone 6 Pick Up -2 51, 50, 49, 48, 47 36 Transit Dependent

-Zone 6 Pick Up -3 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, 142 Transit Dependent

-East Drumore 742, 743, 744, 745, 747, 748, 750, 751, 752, 753, Municipal Bldg. 754, 1587, 756, 759, 758, 760, 1677 1553, 1552, 689, 690, 692, 693, 1548, 695, 696, 38 Trasi 698, 1764, 699, 700, 701, 1605, 703, 1608, 705, Bldg. 706, 707, 1610, 708, 709, 710 164, 680, 1555, 681, 682, 683, 684, 686, 687, Transit Dependent

-Fulton Municipal 688, 1552, 689, 690, 692, 693, 1548, 695, 696, Bldg. 698, 1764, 699, 700, 701, 1605, 703, 1608, 705, 706, 707, 1610, 708, 709, 710 1560, 738, 739, 740, 741, 742, 743, 744, 745, 40 Transit Dependent

-Little Britain 747, 748, 750, 751,752, 753, 754, 1587, 756, Municipal Bldg. 759, 758, 760, 1677 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Bus11 Rout Noe Trvre fro RotS trtt.P 41 Transit Dependent

-Martic Municipal Bldg.1234,1235,1668,1237,886 42 Transit Dependent

-Providence 1611,1610,708,709,710 Municipal Bldg.Transit Dependent

-Quarryville 1738,756,759,758,760,1677 Municipal Bldg.Transit Dependent

-West Nottingham 1753,1752,1755,1754,33 Municipal Bldg.1545,1546,386,387,388,389,390,392,414, Transit Dependent

-Delta/Peach Bottom 482,483,484,485,487,488,591,592,593,594, 45 Bldg. 595,596,598,565,566,567,568,571,572,573, 574,576,577,578,579 46 Transit Dependent

-Fawn Grove/Fawn 667,669,670,672,574,576,577,578,579 Municipal Bldg.414,415,416,417,418,419,420,421,422,423, 1838,1837,424,425,426,428,429,430 388,389,390,392,393,394,396,397,398,399, 48 Transit Dependent

-Zone 2 & Zone 4 401,403,404,405,406,408,323,409,410,411, 412,68,243,244,245,246,247,249 364,363,362,360,358,357,356,354,353,351, 49 Transit Dependent

-Zone 3 & Zone 5 350,365,346,345,344,342,341,340,60,264, 265,266,267,268,269,270,271,272,273 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-7. School, Pre-school, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather South Eastern Middle School West I Delta-Peach Bottom Elementary School I Facility is located just outside the EPZ; however, the facility will evacuate as per county plans. ETE for this facility is not included in the average for the EPZ.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Lniiarens Lenter of njorin marfora Wu I.. 4.j .tt ?Christian Childcare Center 90 15 7.1.9 6 Wilson Community Center 90 ]5:44.9 Mechanic Grove CLASP 90 15 49 33.9 9 The Crayon Box Day Care Center 90 15 29 27.5 6 Busy Hands Daycare 90 15 0.9 50.0 1 Shining Stars Daycare 90 15 12 19.3 4 Kidsville Junction Childcare go 15 34 10.37 1 Delta Christian Academy 90 15 115 12.8 15 Pre-school Maximum for EPZ: Pre-School Average for EPZ: BSA Camp Horseshoe 90 15 4.1 29.7 8 Camp Conowingo GSA 90 15 12.2 Camp Habonim 90 15 2.2 24.8 5 Camp Ramblewood 90 15 3.5 44.9 5 Indian Lake Christian Camp 90 15 8.5 44.4 11 Broadcreek Memorial Camp 90 15 8.1 42.3 11 Camp Andrews 90 15 7.4 15.3 29 Camp John H. Ware 90 15 16.5 Camp Donegal 90 15 149.9 Day Camp Maximum for EPZ: Day Camp Average for EPZ: 12.4 15 0 ) 11 8.3 10 5.6 7 14.1 17 14.1 17 Pre-School Maximum: 6.7 8 6.7 8 12.4 15 9.2 11 5.2 6 I Q2 Day Camp Maximum: Day Camp Average: Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-8. School, Pre-school, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Delta-Peach Bottom Elementary School Facility is located just outside the EPZ; however, the facility will evacuate as per county plans. ETE for this facility is not included in the average for the EPZ.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 UI'IFII I UI INU LI I r'1dI IUI.Christian Childcare Center 100 20 4.9 35.5 8 100 20 7.1 11.8 36 It n)*W -AnO 7.9 11 12.4 17 I.Mecnanic urove LLA., >UU lu 4. Z5.4 10u The Crayon Box Day Care Center 100 20 2.9 22.2 8 Busy Hands Daycare 100 20 0.9 45.0 1 Shining Stars Daycare 100 20 1.2 17.7 4 Kidsville Junction Childcare 100 20 3.4 9.5 21 Delta Christian Academy 100 20 11.5 12.5 55 Pre-school Maximum for EPZ: Pre-School Average for EPZ: BSA Camp Horseshoe 100 20 4.1 27.6 9 Camp Conowingo GSA 100 20 7.8 7.9 59 ,.RR COUTY MD DA CMP Camp Habonim 100 20 2.2 23.4 6 Camp Ramblewood 100 20 3.5 40.9 5 Indian Lake Christian Camp 100 20 8.5 38.1 13 Broadcreek Memorial Camp 100 20 8.1 37.3 13 Camp Andrews 100 20 7.4 15.8 28 Camp John H. Ware 100 20 10.6 19.8 32 Camp Donegal 100 20 6.1 44.8 8 Day Camp Maximum for EPZ: Day Camp Average for EPZ: 0.3 Z5 11 8.3 11 5.6 7 8.3 11 14.1 19 14.1 19 b.7 9"7 A 12.4 1/9.2 12 5.2 7 r, 7 7 4.8 6 10.6 I 14 Day Camp Maximum: Day Camp Average: Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-9. School, Pre-school, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Hartord Friends School 110 25 4.8 31.5 9 North Harford Elementary School 110 25 2.8 7.7 22 North Harford High School 110 25 4.0 12.6 19 North Harford Middle School 110 25 3.7 25.2 9 Harford Christian School 110 25 5.0 12.2 25 Darlington Elementary School 110 25 36.0 3 Dublin Elementary School 110 25 32.6 6 Solanco Senior High School 110 25 2.9 17.7 10 Clermont Elementary School 110 25 7.2 27.1 16 Swift Middle School 110 25 7.2 27.1 16 Martic Elementary School 110 25 2.7 27.4 6 Quarryville Elementary School 110 25 1.4 13.2 6 Smith Middle School 110 25 Located Outside EPZ6 Fawn Area Elementary School 110 25 3.3 7.5 27 South Eastern Middle School East 110 25 3.6 7.5 29 South Eastern Middle School West 110 25 3.6 7.5 29 Kennard-Dale High School 110 25 3.6 7.5 29 Delta-Peach Bottom Elementary School 110 25 12.7 10.6 72 School Maximum for EPZ: School Average for EPZ: 3.4 3.9 7.9 6.0 15.9 7.9'I 5 6 12 9 24 12 1;9.4 14 II+. I IIL 14.1 21 14.1 21 14.1 21 14.1 21 School Maximum: School Average: 6 Facility is located just outside the EPZ; however, the facility will evacuate as per county plans. ETE for this facility is not included in the average for the EPZ.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 t-Iurens Lenter u0 rjormn riar Christian Childcare Center Tura.LILU I Z. I 1. I 'U.U I 110 25 7.1 9.8 43 I In I2 I C /c/.Z1 I 1z 12.4 19 01) 1 A Mecnanic brove LLA.) IlU Z 4. Zi.6 Iz The Crayon Box Day Care Center 110 25 2.9 17.7 10 Busy Hands Daycare 110 25 0.9 40.0 1 Shining Stars Daycare 110 25 1.2 13.2 5 Kidsville Junction Childcare 110 25 3.4 7.5 27 Delta Christian Academy 110 25 11.5 10.3 67 Pre-school Maximum for EpZ: BSA Camp Horseshoe 110 25 4.1 24.4 10 Camp Conowingo GSA 110 25 6.8 69 HAROR CONY ISA AP Camp Habonim 110 25 2.2 20.9 6 Camp Ramblewood 110 25 3.5 35.9 6 Indian Lake Christian Camp 110 25 8.5 29.4 17 Broadcreek Memorial Camp 110 25 8.1 33.9 14 Camp Andrews 110 25 7.4 10.2 43 Camp John H. Ware 110 25 10.6 12.8 50 Camp Donegal 110 25 6.1 39.7 9 Day Camp Maximum for EPZ: Day Camp Average for EPZ: Z5.J IZ z 8.3 12 5.6 8 1.3 12 14.1 21 14.1 21 Pre-School Maximum: 6.7 10 6.7 10 12.4 19 9.2 14 5.2 8 q~o A 10.6 1 16 Day Camp Maximum: Day Camp Average: Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes No ofLnt Rot Nam Bue Rout Decito (L Delta/Peach Bottom Municipal Bldg.3 Picks up evacuees from the Delta/Peach Bottom Municipal Building.

Travels to the Reception Center located at Susquehannock High School.13.0 Drumore Municipal Bldg. 10 Picks up evacuees from the Drumore Municipal Building.

Travels to the Reception Center 10.6 located at Willow Street Career and Technology Center.East Drumore Municipal Bldg. 14 Picks up evacuees from the East Drumore Municipal Building.

Travels to the Reception 4.2 Center located at Willow Street Career and Technology Center.Fawn Grove/Fawn Municipal Bldg. 2 Picks up evacuees from the Fawn Grove/Fawn Municipal Building.

Travels to the 4.0 Reception Center located at Susquehannock High School.Fulton Municipal Bldg. 8 Picks up evacuees from the Fulton Municipal Building.

Travels to the Reception Center 11.7 Fulton___

Municipal__ldg.

8 located at Willow Street Career and Technology Center.Little Britain Municipal Bldg. 16 Picks up evacuees from the Little Britain Municipal Building.

Travels to the Reception Little____ritainMunicipal__ld_.

16 Center located at Willow Street Career and Technology Center.Picks up evacuees from the Lower Chanceford Municipal Building.

Travels to the Lower Chanceford Municipal Bldg. 2 Reception Center located at Red Lion Senior High School. 4.5 Martic Municipal Bldg. 5 Picks up evacuees from the Martic Municipal Building.

Travels to the Reception Center 2.3 located at Willow Street Career and Technology Center.Providence Municipal Bldg. 8 Picks up evacuees from the Providence Municipal Building.

Travels to the Reception 1.6 Center located at Willow Street Career and Technology Center.Quarryville Municipal Bldg. 1 Picks up evacuees from the Quarryville Municipal Building.

Travels to the Reception 1.2 Center located at Willow Street Career and Technology Center.West Nottingham Municipal Bldg. 2 Picks up evacuees from the West Nottingham Municipal Building.

Travels to the 1.5 West__Nottingham___Municipal

_ Bldg. __2 Reception Center located at Octorara Middle School.Zone 1 2 Picks up evacuees along MD SR 165 from MD SR 136 to EPZ boundary.

Travels to the 6.9 Reception Center located at Fallston High School.Picks up evacuees along Dooley Road from Pennsylvania Maryland state line to MD SR Zone 2 & Zone 4 3 136 south to EPZ boundary.

Travels to the Reception Center located at Harford 11.1 Community College.Picks up evacuees along MD SR 623 from Pennsylvania Maryland state line to MD SR 161 Zone 3 & Zone 5 3 to EPZ boundary.

Travels to the Reception Center located at Harford Community 9.3 College.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Zone 6 Pick Up -1 2 Picks up evacuees from the staging area located at Pilot Town Road & Bell Manor Road.Travels to the Reception Center located at Rising Sun High School.Zone 6 Pick Up -2 i Picks up evacuees from the staging area located at US-1 & Connelly Road. Travels to the 3.0 Reception Center located at Rising Sun High School.Zone 6 Pick Up -3 i Picks up evacuees from the staging area located at Basin Run Road & Liberty Grove Road. 3.0 Travels to the Reception Center located at Rising Sun High School.Total: 83 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Delta/Peach Bottom 1-3 120 13.0 17.7 44 30 14.1 17 5 10 51 30 Municipal Bldg.Drumore 1-5 120 10.6 25.1 25 30 Municipal Bldg. 5-10 135 10.6 34.2 19 30 East Drumore 1-7 120 4.2 34.7 7 30 Municipal Bldg. 7-14 135 4.2 41.3 6 30 Fawn Grove/Fawn 1-2 120 4.0 32.8 7 30 Municipal Bldg.Fulton 1-4 120 11.7 30.0 23 30 Municipal Bldg. 5-8 135 11.7 38.9 18 30 1-6 120 9.7 39.4 15 30 Little Britain Municipal Bldg.13-16 150 9.7 42.7 14 30 Lower Chanceford 1-2 120 4.5 49.7 5 30 Municipal Bldg.Martic Municipal Bldg.Providence 1-4 120 1.6 35.5 3 30 Municipal Bldg. 5-8 135 1.6 29.2 3 30 Quarryville 1 Municipal Bldg.West Nottingham 1-2 120 1.5 26.3 3 30 Municipal Bldg. , I I I II 4.8 6 5 10 32 30 4.8 6 5 10 32 30 8.3 10 5 10 21 30 8.3 10 5 10 21 30 14.1 17 5 10 27 30 4.8 6 5 10 34 30 4.8 6 5 10 34 30 8.3 10 5 10 35 30 8.3 10 5 10 35 30 8.3 10 5 10 34 30 10.6 13 5 10 24 30 7.1 9 5 10 16 30 4.8 6 5 10 10 30 4.8 6 5 10 10 30 8.3 10 5 10 14 30 15.0 18 5 10 22 30 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Delta/Peach Bottom Municipal Bldg.1-3 130 13.0 15.1 52 40 14.1 19 5 10 55 40 Drumore 1-5 130 10.6 23.4 27 40 Municipal Bldg. 5-10 145 10.6 31.9 20 40 East Drumore 1-7 130 4.2 27.5 9 40 Municipal Bldg. 7-14 145 4.2 37.5 7 40 Fawn Grove/Fawn 1-2 130 4.0 31.3 8 40 Municipal Bldg.Fulton 1-4 130 11.7 27.8 25 40 Municipal Bldg. 5-8 145 11.7 36.0 20 40 1-6 130 9.7 33.0 18 40 Little Britain Municipal Bldg.13-16 160 9.7 38.6 15 40 Lower Chanceford 1-2 130 4.5 45.0 6 40 Municipal Bldg.Martic Municipal Bldg.Providence 1-4 130 1.6 30.0 3 40 Municipal Bldg. 5-8 145 1.6 45.0 2 40 Quarryville Municipal Bldg. 1 40 West Nottingham 1-2 130 1.5 24.1 4 40 Municipal Bldg.4.8 6 5 10 33 40 4.8 6 5 10 33 40 8.3 11 5 10 22 40 8.3 11 5 10 22 40 14.1 19 5 10 29 40 4.8 6 5 10 36 40 4.8 6 5 10 36 40 8.3 11 5 10 37 40 8.3 11 5 10 37 40 8.3 11 5 10 37 40 10.6 14 5 10 25 40 7.1 9 5 10 16 40 4.8 6 5 10 10 40 4.8 6 5 10 10 40 8.3 11 5 10 15 40 1 15.0 20 5 10 24 40 1 I Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Zone 1 1-2 130 6.9 1 13.5 31 40 13.0 17 5 10 34 40 Zone 1 1-3 130 61.9 13.5 316 40 1. 751 4 4 Zone 2 &Zone 4 Zone 3 & 1-3 130 9.3 35.8 16 40 Zone 5 Zone 6 1-2 130 7.9 8.7 55 40 Pick Up 1 Zone 6 Pick Up 2 Zone 6 Zoe61 130 3.0 31.6 6 40 Pick Up 3 1 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 5.2 7 5 10 35 40 9.2 12 5 10 37 40 6.6 9 5 10 29 40 6.6 9 5 10 17 40 8.4 11 5 10 20 40 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow uelta/reacn Bottom Municipal Bldg.1-3 140 13.0 1 11.6 67 50 14.1 21 5 10 60 50 Drumore 1-5 140 10.6 14.9 43 50 Municipal Bldg. 5-10 155 10.6 18.1 35 50 East Drumore 1-7 140 4.2 23.1 11 50 Municipal Bldg. 7-14 155 4.2 32.0 8 50 Fawn Grove/Fawn 1-2 140 4.0 25.0 10 50 Municipal Bldg.Fulton 1-4 140 11.7 17.5 40 50 Municipal Bldg. 5-8 155 11.7 20.8 34 50 1-6 140 9.7 28.5 20 50 Little Britain Municipal Bldg. 7-12 155 9.7 33.4 17 50 13-16 170 9.7 34.3 17 50 Lower Chanceford 1-2 140 4.5 39.7 7 50 Municipal Bldg.Martic Municipal Bldg.Providence 1-4 140 1.6 33.1 3 50 Municipal Bldg. 5-8 155 1.6 33.1 3 50 Quarryville 1 Municipal Bldg.4.8 7 5 10 39 50 4.8 7 5 10 36 50 8.3 12 5 10 24 50 8.3 12 5 10 24 50 14.1 21 5 10 33 50 4.8 7 5 10 39 50 4.8 7 5 10 39 50 8.3 12 5 10 40 50 8.3 12 5 10 40 50 8.3 12 5 10 40 50 10.6 16 5 10 28 50 7.1 11 5 10 19 50 4.8 7 5 10 11 50 4.8 7 5 10 11 50 8.3 12 5 10 16 50 West Nottingham Municipal Bldg.1-2 140 1.5 22.1 4 50 13:1,5 15.0 23 5 10 28 50 I!Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Zone 1 1-2 140 1 6.9 1 10.6 1 39 50 13.0 20 5 10 39 1 50 Zone 2 & 1-3 1 40 11.1 1 7 .18 50 Zone 4 i I Zone 3 &Zone 5 1-3 140 9.3 31.9 17 50 1 Zone 6 Pick Up 1 Zone 6 Pick Up 2 Zone 6 Pick Up 3 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 5.2 8 5 10 38 50 9.2 14 5 10 42 50 6.6 10 5 10 31 50 6.6 10 5 10 18 50 8.4 13 5 10 23 50 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather AIlcare Assisted Ambulatory 90 1 6 2.9 5 1:45 Living Wheelchair bound 90 5 10 2.9 5 1:45 Conowingo Ambulatory 90 1 16 16 3.9 30 2:20 Veterans Center Wheelchair bound 90 5 2 10 3.9 29 2:10 Ambulatory 90 1 4 4 2.1 4 1:40 lierty Gare Wheelchair bound 90 5 3 15 2.1 4 1:50 Elderly Care______

Bedridden 90 15 2 30 2.1 4 2:05 Ambulatory 90 1 25 25 4.4 7 2:05 Hart Heritage Wheelchair bound 90 5 7 20 4.4 7 2:00 Estate Bedridden 90 15 2 30 4.4 7 2:10 Country View Ambulatory 90 1 20 20 4.1 21 2:15 Manor Quarryville Ambulatory 90 1 242 30 1.4 5 2:05 Presbyterian Wheelchair bound 90 5 128 20 1.4 5 1:55 Retirement Commnt Bedridden 90 15 2 30 1.4 5 2:05 CommunityI Maximum ETE: 2:20 Average ETE: 2:00 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain AlIcare Assisted Ambulatory 100 1 6 6 2.9 6 1:55 Living Wheelchair bound 100 5 2 10 2.9 6 2:00 Conowingo Ambulatory 100 1 16 16 3.9 48 2:45 Veterans Center Wheelchair bound 100 5 2 10 3.9 48 2:40 Liberty Garden Ambulatory 100 1 4 2.1 4 1:50 Elderly Care Wheelchair bound 100 5 3 15 2.1 4 2:00 Bedridden 100 15 2 30 2.1 4 2:15 Ambulatory 100 1 25 25 4.4 8 2:15 Hart Heritage Wheelchair bound 100 5 7 20 4.4 8 2:10 Estate ______Bedridden 100 15 2 30 4.4 8 2:20 Country View Ambulatory 100 1 20 20 4.1 24 2:25 Manor Uuarryville Presbyterian Retirement Community Ambulatory 100 1 242 30 1.4 6 Z:ZO Wheelchair bound 100 5 128 20 1.4 6 1 2:101 Bedridden 100 15 2 30 1.4 6 2:20 Maximum ETE:] 2:45 Average ETE: J 2:15 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow AlIcare Assisted Living Ambulatory 110 1 6 6 2.9 7 2:05________ ________ 4 4 + +Wheelchair bound 110 5 2 10 2.9 7 2:10 Conowingo Ambulatory 110 1 16 16 3.9 57 3:05 Veterans Center Wheelchair bound 110 5 2 10 3.9 59 3:00 Ambulatory 110 1 4 4 2.1 5 2:00 lierty Gare Wheelchair bound 110 5 3 15 2.1 5 2:10 Elderly Care Bedridden 110 15 2 30 2.1 5 2:25 Ambulatory 110 1 25 25 4.4 8 2:25 Hart Heritage Wheelchair bound 110 5 7 20 4.4 9 2:20 Estate Bedridden 110 15 2 30 4.4 9 2:30 Country View Ambulatory 110 1 20 20 4.1 37 2:50 Manor Quarryville Ambulatory 110 1 242 30 1.4 7 2:30 Presbyterian Wheelchair bound 110 5 128 20 1.4 9 2:20 Retirement Community Bedridden 110 15 2 30 1.4 7 2:30 Maximum ETE: 3:05 Average ETE: 2:30 Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-40 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Moiia Loain Lodn Tim to.Wheelchair Vans 52 17 3 Good Rain Snow 90 100 110 5 18 20 22 10 9 12 13 2:15 2:30 2:40 Good 90 10 9 2:20 Ambulances 2 1 2 Rain 100 15 11 15 12 2:35 Snow 110 13 13 2:50 Maximum ETE: 2:50 Average ETE: 2:35 8-41 KLD Engineering, P.C.Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-41 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0