ML032510753
| ML032510753 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 05/31/2003 |
| From: | KLD Associates |
| To: | Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME |
| References | |
| NL-03-139 KLD TR-369 | |
| Download: ML032510753 (7) | |
Text
APPENDIX DDetailed Description of Study Procedure Indian Point Energy CenterD-1KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1APPENDIX D: DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDUREThis appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute accurate Evacuation TimeEstimates (ETE). The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.
Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in this flow diagram.Step 1.The first activity is to obtain data defining the spatial distribution and demographic characteristicsof the population within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and within the Shadow Region. These data were obtained from U.S. Census files and from results compiled by a telephone survey conducted of persons residing within the EPZ. Transient and employee population data were estimated by referencing New York State files and by direct telephone and mail surveys.
Step 2.The next activity is to examine large-scale maps of the EPZ in both hard-copy form and usingGeographical Information System (GIS) software. These maps were used to identify the analysis highway network and the access roads from each residential development to the adjoining elements of this network. This information is used to plan a field survey of the highway system and later, to assign generated evacuation trips to the correct links of the network.
Step 3.The next step is to conduct a physical survey of the roadway system. The purpose of this survey isto determine the geometric properties of the highway elements, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity Step 4.With this information, develop the evacuation network representation of the physical roadwaysystem.Step 5.With the network drawn, proceed to estimate the capacities of each link and to locate the origincentroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process.
Step 6.With this information at hand, the data were entered into the computer to create the input stream forthe TRaffic Assignment and Distribution (TRAD) model. This model was designed to be compatible with the PCDYNEV traffic simulation model used later in the project; the input stream required for one model is entirely compatible with the input stream required by the other. Using a software system developed by KLD named UNITES, the data entry activity is performed interactively directly on the computer.
Indian Point Energy CenterD-2KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Step 7.The TRAD model contains software that performs diagnostic testing of the input stream. These assistthe user in identifying and correcting errors in the input stream Step 8.After creating the input stream, execute the TRAD model to compute evacuating traffic routingpatterns consistent with the guidelines of NUREG 0654, Appendix 4. The TRAD model also provides estimates of traffic loading on each highway link as well as rough estimates of operational performance.
Step 9.Critically examine the statistics produced by the TRAD model. This is a labor-intensive activity,requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the result.Essentially, the approach is to identify those "hot spots" in the network that represent locations wherecongested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion. This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to improper routing, as a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative error in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions: The results are as satisfactory as could be expected at this stage of the analysis process; or The input stream must be modified accordingly.This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment based upon the resultsobtained in previous applications of the TRAD model and a comparison of the results of this last case with the previous ones. In the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 12. Otherwise, proceed to Step 10.
Step 10. There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving such problems. These treatmentsrange from decisions to reroute the traffic by imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems or changing the trip table. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original input stream.Step 11.As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modificationsundertaken in Step 10. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 8 where the TRAD model is again executed.
Indian Point Energy CenterD-3KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Step 12.The output of the TRAD model includes the computed turn movements for each link. These dataare required - and - accessed by the PCDYNEV simulation model. This step completes the
specification of the PCDYNEV input stream.
Step 13.After the PCDYNEV input stream has been debugged, the simulation model is executed to providedetailed estimates, expressed as statistical Measures of Effectiveness (MOE), which describe the detailed performance of traffic operations on each link of the network.
Step 14.In this step, the detailed output of the simulation model is examined to identify whether problemsexist on the network. The results of the simulation model are extremely detailed and far more accurately describe traffic operations than those provided by the TRAD model. Thus, it is possible to identify the cause of any problems by carefully studying the output.Again, one can implement corrective treatments designed to expedite the flow of traffic on thenetwork in the event that the results are considered to be less efficient than is possible to achieve.
If input changes are needed, the analysis process proceeds to Step 15. On the other hand, if the results are satisfactory, then one can decide whether to return to Step 8 to again execute the TRAD model and repeat the whole process, or to accept the simulation results. If there were no changes indicated by the activities of Step 14, because the results were satisfactory, we can then proceed to document them in Step 17. Otherwise, return to Step 8 to determine the effects of the changes implemented in Step 14 on the optimal routing patterns over the network. This determination can be ascertained by executing the TRAD model.
Step 15.This activity implements the changes in control treatments or in the assignment of destinationsassociated with one or more origins in order to improve the representation of traffic flow over the network. These treatments can also include the consideration of adding roadway segments to the existing analysis network to improve the representation of the physical system.
Step 16.Once the treatments have been identified, it is necessary to modify the simulation model input streamaccordingly. At the completion of this effort, the procedure returns to Step 13 to execute the simulation model again.
Step 17.The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results are then documented, as required.
Indian Point Energy CenterD-4KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1Get Demographic DataStep 1Study Large Scale EPZ MapSurvey EPZ Roadway SystemDevelop Network RepresentationEstimate Link CapacitiesLocate Zonal Centraoids andCandidate DestinationsCreate TRADInputDebug Input StreamModify Input Stream ToReflect Step 10 ChangesComplete Traffic SimulationInput StreamExecute IDYNEV Traffic SimulationExamine Traffic SimulationModify Simulation DataExecute TRAD Model A B AExamine TRAD OutputTo Improve ResultsDevelop Control Treatmentsand/or Modify Trip TableResults Satisfactory BResults Satisfactory Figure D-1Flow Diagram of ActivitiesStep 2Step 3Step 4Step 5Step 6Step 7Step 8Step 9Step 10Step 11Step 13Step 14Step 15 Step 16Step 12DocumentationStep 17Develop ControlTreatments And/or ModifyTrip Table To ImproveResults