ML16340A906

Affidavit Indicating That Facility Design Accelerations, Velocities & Displacements Are Not Established as Conservative Values for M-7.5 Design Earthquake.Supporting Documentation Encl

ML16340A906
Person / Time
Site:	Diablo Canyon
Issue date:	02/29/1980
From:	Brune J CALIFORNIA, UNIV. OF, SAN DIEGO, CA
To:
Shared Package
ML16340A907	List: ML16340A906 ML16340A908 ML16340A909 ML16341C361 ML19323A544
References
NUDOCS 8004210325
Download: ML16340A906 (86)

Text

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In The Matter Of: )

)

PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY)

) Docket Nos. 50-275(OL)

(Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power ) 50-323(OL)

Plant Units 1 and 2)

AFFIDAVIT OF JAMES NEIL BRUNE STATE OF CALIFORNIA)

) ss.

COUNTY OF SAH DIEGO)

A JAMES N. BRUNE, being of legal age and duly sworn, deposes and says as follows:

l. I am Professor of Geophysics at the University of Ca1ifornia at San Diego. My educational background includes a Bachelor of Science degree in Geological Engineering from the University of Nevada and a Ph.D. in Seismology from Columbia University. I have c'arried out a number of studies relating to earthquake source mechanism.

and strong motion in recent years. Currently I am conducting a study of the strong motion records resulting from the October 15, 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake. My study of the strong, motion data resulting from the Imperial Valley earthquake is being funded by a grant from the National

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Science Foundation. Hence, I am very familiar with current and pre'vious investigations of earthquake source mechanisms and strong motion data.

Q qualifications, experience, and a list of publications are described in detail in an attachment to the testimony I presented to the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board during the Diablo Canyon seismic hearings in January, 1979.

2. The purpose of my affidavit -is to describe recently obtained earthquake strong motion data which is important to the consideration of the seismic safety of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant. This new data 0

prdvides the only extensive set of data points for a single earthquake in the distance range of'the Diablo Canyon site relative to the Hosgri fault, and hence must be thoroughly assessed before firm conclusions can be drawn concerning the probable ground motion to be expected near earthquakes of the magni tude of the Imperial Valley earthquake (6.6) or greater.

3. The acceleration, velocity and displacement records from the closer stations recording the Imperial Valley earthquake have recently been released by the U.S.G.S. I have reviewed these data .and compared them with data presented in the 1978 USGS Circular 795 by Boore et al.

(a continuation of the data reported by Boore, et al. in USGS Circular 672), and with the design accelerations, velocity and displacement values (0.75g, 61 cm/sec, and 20 cm, respectively) presented by Newmark for the NRC in his testimony before the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board during the Diablo Canyon seismic hearings. The following conclusions resulted from this comparison:

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C (a) There are a number of recordings at close-in distances where there were few data from previous earthquakes of this magnitude (6.6). Locations of the strong-motion stations are shown in Attachment A. Response, spectra for the close-in stations are provided in Attach-

.ment B.

(b) The peak horizontal ground accelerations were generally in agreement with the 70, percent prediction intervals of the Boore et al. (1978) circular for an M = 6.4 earthquake. The peak horizontal acceleration at station 4 of the USGS El Centro array (7 km from the f

fault trace) was 0.6lg; at the Bonds Corner station (3 km from the fault trace) it was 0.8lg. Considering the inherent varia-bility of earthquakes it must be considered likely that future earthquakes of this magnitude will in some cases generate higher accelerations. A magnitude 7,.5 earthquake would be expected to generate still higher accelerations. There are only a few data points at this distance range for M = 7.5 earthquakes and hence the Diablo Canyon design horizontal acceleration of 0.75g cannot be established as conservative at this time.

(c) The peak horizontal ground velocities agree well with the extrapolated curves of Boore et al. (1978) into the distance range of about 7 km, which indicate an average velocity of about 40 cm/sec at this distance, and a 70K prediction interval velocity of about 75 cm/sec.

Since this earthquake had a relatively small amount of slip compared to the 1940 El Centro earthqu'ake of nearly the same or slightly smaller magnitude, it is likely that some earthquakes in this magnitude range will have co'ns'iderably higher velocities at comparable distances. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake would be likely to have still larger velocities.

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Thus the design horizontal ground velocity of 61 cm/sec for the- Diablo Canyon nuclear plant is definitely not supported as a conservative value by the present data.

(d) Peak horizontal displacements from the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake are also in approximate agreement with the extrapo-lated Boore et al.(1978) curves, which indicate an upper 70% confidence interval displacement of about 40 cm at a distance of 7 km. Station 4 (at a distance of 7 cm from the fault) recorded a peak displacement of 48 cm. Since this earthquake had relatively small fault displacements for its magnitude (e.g., compared with the 1940 El Centro earthquake) we may expect future earthquakes of this magnitude to generate larger displacements. A N = 7.5 earthquake can be expected to gerierate still larger displacements. Hence the design displacement for. the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant, approximately 20 cm, is definitely not conservative.

4. The vertical components of acceleration recorded from the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake indicate that the assumption that accelerations are 2/3 of the horizontal are not universally valid close to faults (within 10 km). Two-thirds of the design horizontal acceleration of .75g for Diablo Canyon is ~ 50g. Actual recorded vertical accelerations for the Imperial Valley earthquake were as high as .93g (corresponding horizontal accelerations were .5lg and .37g) at the El Centro differential array at a distance of 5 km from the fault. A number of other values of 4

vertical accelerations in the near field of the Imperial Valley earth-quake exceeded the values for the horizontal accelerations. These high vertical accelerations indicate that the 1.3g vertical acceleration recorded from the Gazli, Russia earthquake of May 17; 1976 (M = 7.2)-

may not have been unusually high. Therefore a design vertical accelera-tion for Diablo Canyon of .50g cannot be established as conservative.

5. Three recent earthquakes have shown an asymmetric pattern of strong motion and damage (Santa Barbara, 1978; Gilroy, 1979; and Livermore, 1980). These patterns suggest that the phenomenon of focussing by rupture propogation (directivity) was operating in these earthquakes.

This may suggest that the phenomenon is more common than previously assumed by many seismologists and hence may require re-assessment. as a-factor in the Diablo Canyon design.

6. Data discussed above indicates that the Diablo Canyon design accelerations, velocities and displacements of 0.75g, 61 cm/sec -and 24 cm, respectively, are not established as conservative values for the M =

7.5 design earthquake, since they were exceeded in the distance range of 3-7 km by the Imperial Valley earthquake with a magnitude of only 6.6.

The foregoing data also indicates that, in the near field, values of I

vertical accelerations can be considerably higher than 2/3 of the values of the horizontal accelerations.

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7. All of the matters herein are known to me of my personal knowledge or of my personal opinion based on my education and experience. If called as a witness, I am competent and would testify thereto.

P EVAE r'.t f. 'W / If~

James Neil Brune me tbts ~

Subscribed and.sworn to before day of February, 1980 ee m

Ey'ONA Eocy" '2.

~"~~<~ AVCeeebVa OFFICIAL SEAL B. CRAMPTON g NOI ARV PUBLIC - CALIFOINIA PRIIICIPAI OFFICE IH SAII DIEGO COUIITY Srx Commissloo Expires ao emlmr 32. 3993 v voovovovAvovovoovsrovov mm mV Notary Public My commission expires:

REFERENCES:

1. Boore, David M, et al., "Estimations of Ground Motion Parameters,"

USGS Circular 795 . (prepared on behalf of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission , 1978, USGS, Menlo Park, California.

2. Matthiesen, R.B. and Porcella, R.L., "Preliminary Summary of the U.S.

Geological Survey Strong Motion Records From the October 15, 1979 Imperial Valley Earthquake," USGS Open-File Report 79-1654, October 1979, USGS, Menlo Park, California.

3. NOAA Data Tape STEW 2, "October 15, 1979 Imperial Valley Earthquake,"

Earthquake Data Information Service, Boulder, Colorado.

J ~ ~

I

ATTACHMENT DESCRI PT IOiN Strong-Motion Stations In The Imperial Valley, California (page 3 of Reference 2).

Response Spectra From 10/15/79 Earthquake by Seismic Engineering Branch of USGS (Data From Reference 3).

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ATTACHMENT A 115o45 W 115o30'W EXPLAAATION NILAND ~ SMAT.1 Ground station DSA.1 Ground station SALTON SEA a CRA.1 . Building CRA.1 . Bridge g

I,. y WP QI.IFE REFUGE DCA 300 Special array 0 10 CALIPATRIA KILOMETERS 86 WESTMORELAND 78 BRAWLEY Array

~ SUPERSTITION N0.1 MOUNTAIN yPARACHUTE TEST FACILITY BRA WLE Y

~ 0'2 FAULT ~ NO 3 0,'N0.4 IMPERIAL N0.6 N0.5 N0.7~ HOLTVILLE EL CENTRO

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• EPICENTER

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~ N0.12 N0.13 SON"S SCORNER CALEXICOMy, USA MEXlCO + EPICENTER 10 ~ 15:9 F>gure l.- Strong-motion sta.';"6 -:~. t.".e Imperial Valley Califorria.

ATTACHMENT 8 RESPONSE SPECTRA; 11 CLOSE RECORDS; UP

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l RESPONSE S>ECTRA BRAWLEY,BRAWLEY AIRPORT,10/l5/79,315 DEG 0.2,5,l0.20 PERCENT BANG PASSEO FROM CRITICAL DMPING

.030- .]70 TO 23.00-25.00 HZ SE I S<l CENG I NEER I NG BRANCH/USGS 400.00 200.00

~ 100.-00 li Z

40.00 20.00 cr 10. 00 0-I 4.00 C)

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UJ 2.00 1.00

.40 25

.0< .1 .2 2 ] 10 20 UNDAMPED NATURAL PERIOD-SECONDS B-32

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~

RESPONSE S>ECTRA CALEX I CO F IRE STAT10N.10i15<79. 315 DEC 0', 2. 5. 10, 20 PERCENT CR I T I CAL D~P I NG BANG PASSEO FROM .030- .1i0 TO 23.00-25.00 HZ 1000 00 SE I SKI C ENGINEER'I NG BRANCH/USGS 400.00 zoo.oo

~ 100.00 40.00 20.00 LLJ 10.00 4.00 O

2. 00 1.00 40 Z5

.04 . 1'2 2 4 10 20 UNDPP1PEO NATURAL PERIOD-SECONDS B-33

l t~

h

RESPONSE ~ELECTRA EL CENTRO,ARRAY S.IO/15/79,2317,1<ODEG

0. 2. 5, 10. 20 PERCENT CP IT I CAL DA!1P I NG BANG PASSEO FRQtl .030- .170 TO 23.00-2S.00 HZ icooo oo SE I 9-il C Et>GII;EiI-'I'J.';-.'A!,:rH/V~G5 4000. 00 2000.00

~ 1000.0G P

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w 400.00 I, o 200.00

~

cx l00.00 V, 0-I 40.00 o

20.00 10.00

<.00 2.50.0< .l .2 2 4 l0 20 LtNDANPED NATURAL PERIOD-SECONDS.

B-34

4