ML12215A474

LTR-12-0378 - E-mail Steve Dwyer Concerns New Geology Reports Regarding San Onofre (SONGS)

ML12215A474
Person / Time
Site:	San Onofre
Issue date:	07/27/2012
From:	Dwyer S - No Known Affiliation
To:	Macfarlane A NRC/Chairman
References
LTR-12-0378
Download: ML12215A474 (3)

Text

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CORRESPONDENCE CONTROL TICKET Date Printed: Jul30, 2012 13:21 PAPER NUMBER: LOGGING DATE: 07/30/2012 ACTION OFFICE: L - 378 T obLeU- a-3

,0 pp~Op -4cý oyi AUTHOR: Steve Dwyer EDO DEDMRT AFFILIATION: DEDR Chairman Resource DEDCM ADDRESSEE: AO

SUBJECT:

Concerns new geology reports regarding San Onofre (SONGS) fzl V w\UziLa ACTION: Appropriate DISTRIBUTION: Chrm LETTER DATE: 07/27/2012 ACKNOWLEDGED No SPECIAL HANDLING:

NOTES:

FILE LOCATION: ADAMS DATE DUE: DATE SIGNED:

~TL2)PS.EC+O-0(7....- -Se-..

I)S,

Joosten, Sandy From: SD [stexied@gmail.com]

Sent: Friday, July 27, 2012 8:52 PM To: CHAIRMAN Resource

Subject:

New Geology Reports RE SONGS chairman Qanrc.gov

Dear Mr. Chairman,

RE SONGS SEISMIC RISKS UPDATE, URGENT ACTION REQUIRED Some new reports on SoCal Geology for your immediate urgent review.

I pray you find time to go over this and if you have any questions, please just ask.

I am also available for a full tour by car or helicopter of the fault here.

I believe once you actually see the Magnitude of the Fault here you will take action.

If you don't actually see these features you will not get a clear picture, as its almost indescribable. Don;t take anyone's word for any of this, just come see it for yourself!

How about we set up a tour with everyone, USGS and Edison etc together?

I think Edison will agree perhaps even sooner than others that this is way too risky to continue with an old design reactor.

They need to spend money on other things rather throw good money after bad, its a simple biz equation in many respects.

Thanks for your prompt attention.

Steve Dwyer Geological Consultant, 40 years http-://blogs.laweeklv.com/informer/2012/07/massive earthquake san andreas 86 possible caltech.php Previous estimates by USGS were M 8.0, and we know from Sumatra and japan that these big ones do far more than expected, additional faults involved, whihc was only a theory until Landers Quake ripped up one then another then another fault !

the complexity of the San Andreas Fault in Coachella Valley just 75mi east of SONGS is among the scariest known!

I

The details on the ground are still here to take a look at, and are just stunning. One has to stand here and look to be impressed by the incredible power of this event. Nowhere else along the fault are such catastrophic features so evident.

http://blogs.laweekly.com/informer/2012/06/earthquake big one power outage california.php Lucy Jones says 20 Feet!

Yet we know that the fault moves at 4cm/year so accumulated strain between quakes can be very large.

(Dr. Barosa at Stanford estimated Japan offset at 98 feet, and USGS estimated Japan at 79 feet ! So 20ft. is still way too conservative)

Estimates of last big quake in the lower section date was around 500 years more or less, which equates to over 60 feet of offset accumulated!

(60 Feet is what Lucy told me in private, but I'm glad to see she has at least up'ed it some. 20 feet is what the Owens Valley Quake moved and that killed everyone there. The scarp down the valley is still almost fresh looking. The mass grave lies a little to the west.

Northridge Quake only moved 4 feet, with 2.4g's acceleration !) ..So if San Andreas Fault is estimated by USGS to be 20 feet now, five times the offset?

Sure its hard to equate offset with magnitude or acceleration, but its still HUGE, and Northridge Acceleration barely attenuated enough to 0.66g's (SONGS Design Criteria) by the time it hit SONGS 80 mi away to prevent SONGS destruction back then. Barely ! One close call. Its time to say enough is enough of this game, and shut it down permanently.

The other option is to shut it down and mothball it, remove all fuels etc and have it as standby AFTER the quake, if it survives at all.

My estimate is that SONGS will look worse than Fukushima, and much more like San Juan Capistrano Do it for the Children Sir ASAP ! http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1 116/1254266219 ebb7084166.*pg http://bcs.whfreeman.com/earthquakes/content/cat 490/bt00eh02.htm#Wrightwood, San Juan Capistrano, California, 1812 SoCal Quake History 2