ML18045A410

Evacuation Time Estimates.

ML18045A410
Person / Time
Site:	Palisades, Big Rock Point  File:Consumers Energy icon.png
Issue date:	06/30/1980
From:	HMM ASSOCIATES, INC.
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ML18045A411	List: ML18045A410
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NUDOCS 8008010304
Download: ML18045A410 (93)

Text

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I I PALISADES NUCLEAR POWER STATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES I

I HMM Document No.80-053 I

I June 1980 I Prepared for:

CONSUMERS POWER COMPANY I 1945 Parnall Road Jackson, Michigan 49201 I

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I Prepared by:

HMM ASSOCIATES, INC.

One Forbes Road Lexington, Massachusetts 02173 I

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I I TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I'

1. INTRODUCTION 1 I 2. STUDY AREA 2.1 Townships within 2, 5, and 10 miles 3

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2.2 Sector Analyses POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND ESTIMATED VEHICLE 4

6 DEMAND I 3.1 Populatidn and Vehicle E~timates Associated 6 with General Evacuation I 3.2 P6pulation and Vehicle Estimates Associated with Facilities Having Special Evacuation Needs 10 I 4.

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ROAD NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS AND EVACUATION ROUTES EVACUATION TIMES 11 12 12 I 5.1 5.2 Summary Assessment and Notification to Evacuate 12 5.3 General Evacuation 15 I 5.4 Special Facilities Evacuation 19 5.5 Confirmation of Evacuation 22 I 5.6 Total Evacuation Time 22 I APPENDIX A NRC LETTER OF 11/29/79, AND MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION LETTER OF I APPENDIX B FEBRUARY 11, 1980 DISTRIBUTION OF VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES APPENDIX c SURVEY OF HOUSING UNITS I APPENDIX D CAPACITY CALCULATIONS APPENDIX E EVACUATION ROUTINGS I APPENDIX F EOC ACTIVATION ALERT LIST I

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I I LIST OF TABLES I

Tuble 1 Table 2 Estimate of Dwelling Units, 1980 Major Employers Within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Table 3 Accommodations Within 10 Miles of the Palisades I Table 4 Nuclear Plant Campgrounds and Beaches Within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant I Table 5 Medical Related Facilities Within 10 Miles of the Pali~ades Nuclear Plant I Table 6 Educational Facilities Within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant I Table 7 Table 8 Summary of Road Network Characteristics General Evacuation Clear Time Estimates I

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I I LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS I Figure 1 Location of County and Township Boundaries Within 10-Mile Radius of the Palisades Nuclear I Figure 2 Plant Evacuation Analysis Study Areas I Figure 3 Figure 4 Location of Selected Land Uses Estimated Vehicles Associated with Summer Weekend Population I Figure 5 Estimateq Vehicles Associated with Winter I

• Weekday Population I Figure 6 Road Network Within 10-Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant I

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I I 1. INTRODUCTION I

In a letter dated November 29, 1979, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requested all reactor operators to provide information on evacuation time estimates for specified zones in the vicinity of their nuclear power plants for both routine and adverse weather con~itions. Other information I concerning evacuation time estimates for "special facilities",

was also requested in the NRC letter. A copy of this letter is I attached as Appendix A. The purpose of this report is to provide a partial respo~se to the NRC letter. Information I collected and reviewed during the period January 9 to 18 was used for this evaluation and reporting effort.

I The Emergency Operations Plan for Van Buren County describes the interrelationship of the Palisades Nuclear Plant personnel and state and local authorities in the event of I - emergency conditions. The City of South Haven, which is located about 4.5 miles north of the Palisades Nuclear Plant I also has an_Emergency Operations Plan. ~hese plans have been reviewed for the purpose of providing information on I established emergency procedures to protect populations within certain areas surrounding the Palisades facility. This I emergency response information was combined with data regarding area population distribution (estimated summer and winter I populations) and local road network characteristics to estimate various times that an evacuation could take.

These evacuation time estimates are discussed in Section 5 I and summarized on Table 8. The method used to calculate the general evacuation clear times and resulting time estimates I were reviewed with the Michigan Department of Transportation.

Appendix A also includes a copy of a letter on this subject I from the Department's Traffic and Saftety Division, dated February 11, 1980. Likewise, information included in this I

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I I report was discussed with several local officials.including the f-4/\V&'N emergency coo rd i na tor for the City of South ~@.Flm and staff of the Van Buren County Sheriff's Department. Section 2 describes the spatial areas analyzed in the vicinity of the site.

I Estimates of vehicles to be evacuated are described in Section 3. Information on the local road network to be used during an evacuation is included in Section 4.

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I 2. STUDY AREA I

2.1 Townships within 2, 5, and 10 Miles Figure 1 snows the county, township and city boundaries within the 10-mile radius. This radius covers portions of Van Buren, Allegan and Berrien Counties. The plant is located in I Covert Township in Van Buren County. The following briefly describes the cities and townships within each study area.

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• 0- to 2-Mile Radius. Van Buren County (area I includes portions of Covert and South Haven Townships).

I o 0- to 5-Mile Radius. The 5-mile radius of the I Palisades Nuclear Plant falls entirely within Van Buren County. Portions of three townships are found within this radius: Covert, South Haven and I Bangor. Portions of the City .of South Haven (NE 4. 5 to 7 miles) are located within five miles of the I plant. The City of South Haven has a current population of about 6,500. The City has the I greatest population concentration of the communities located within ten miles of the plant.

I 0- to 10-Mile Radius. Van Buren County. The majority of the land area encompassed by the 10-mile I radius is included within Van Buren County .. Both Covert and South Haven Townships are entirely I included within this radius as are major portions of Geneva, Bangor, and Hartford Townships. The City of I Bangor is located east of the site (E 9.. 5 to 11 miles) and has a current population estimate of I 2,200. For the purposes of this evacuation anBlysis, the entire city was assumed to lie within the 10-mile study area. The City of Hartford, with I

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I a current population of about 2,600, is located beyond the 10-mile radius (SE 10 to 11 miles) and was excluded from the study area.

I Berrien County. The 5- to 10-mile radius encompasses portions of three townships in Berrien

• county. These include Hagar, Coloma and Watervliet I Townships. The cities of Coloma (S 9.5 to 10.5 miles) and Watervliet (SSE 9.5 to 10.5 miles), with current populations of approximately 1,900 and 2,200 persons, respectively, were included within the 10-mile study area.

I Allegan County. A small portion of Casco Township is included within the 10-mile radius of the I Palisades Nuclear Power Plant.

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I 2.2 Sector Analyses Spatial areas examined were within the 2-, 5-, and 10-mile radii of the reactor site. Figure 2 shows the study areas examined in this report. The 2-mile radius was analyzed as a I single area (180° sector) while the areas within the 0 to 5 and 0 to 10 mile radii were divided into two parts for this I evaluation (90° sectors).* The same study area sectors were examined for both an assumed summer fair-weather condition and winter adverse-weather condition. Sectors evaluated were I established following a review of available population in[orm;.ition, a review of maps of the local road network, and a I limited field inspection. Appendix E contains maps which delineate th~ various sectors analyzed. The following is a I brief description of the sectors analyzed:

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• Approximately corresponding to the 90o and 1800 sectors described in the NRC letter of 11/29/79. Note that only those 90o sectors exist since much of the area within *the 10 miles is over water.

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I Analysis Distance 22-1/20

• • Area Miles Sectors Description 1 0-2 N, NNE, Predominantly rural. Seasonal NE, ENE, residents along Lake Michigan.

I E, ESE, SE,SSE, s, SSW Major egress routes include the Blue Star Highway, I-196, and 20th Avenue.

I 2 and 0-5 ESE, SE, SSE, s' Predominantly rural with several areas with seasonal residents.

4 0-10 and SSW Urbanized areas include the I Cities of Coloma and Watervliet.

Major egress routes include the Blue Star Highway, I-196, M-140, and 30th and 42nd Avenues.

I 3 0-5 N, NNE, Includes the Cities of South and NE, ENE, Haven and Bangor. Other areas I 5 0-10 and E are predominantly rural. Major egress routes include I-196, the Blue Star Highway, M-43, M-140, I Phoenix Road, 66th Street and 30th, 20th, and 72nd Avenues.

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3. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND ESTIMATED VEHICLE DEMAND Available population and related housing data were I reviewed. These data provided tne basis for estimating the potential number of vehicles involved in a general evacuation.

Population and housing unit distribution data for 1980 for I permanent residents and daily transients were combined to obtain estimates of vehicles for a general evacuation I analysis. In addition, some data on selected facilities having special evacuation needs were developed.

I Two vehicle demand estimates were made for this analysis:

one for an assumed summer weekend condition and another for an I assumed winter weekday condition. This second demand estimate 1*

was also used to evaluate evacuation times under adverse weather conditions. A capacity approach was used to make both the summer weekend and winter weekday vehicle demand estimates. Vehicle demand estimates and information on special I facilities are described below:

I 3.1 Population and Vehicle Estimates Associated with a General Evacuation I Permanent Population I Table 1 provides a summary of the estimated number of dwelling units associated with current populations. For this I evacuation analysis, vehicle demand was assumed to be one vehicle per dwelling unit.

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I I Populations Associated with Major Facilities

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I Tables 2 through 6 provide summary information on several categories of facilities located within the 10-mile radius of I the site. These categories include:

I Table 2 Major Employers, Table 3 Overnight Accommodations, I

Table 4 Campgrounds and Beaches, I

Table 5 Medical Related Facilities, and I Table 6 Educational Facilities.

I In addition to the above noted facilities, recreational Doating areas exist in the City of South Haven. There are 530 I boat slips in marinas along the Black River in South Haven and 576 registered boats in the City of So~th Haven. During the 1* summer, the marina boat slips are filled to capaci~y. It is estimated that the majority of marine boat slips are used by I persons who reside outside of the 10-mile radius of the Palisades Nuclear Plant.*

I Two smaller marinas were identified on Paw Paw Lake. They are the Crystal Marina and the Kinyon Marina.

Information on the sector location of these selected major facilities and, where possible, estimates of associated vehicle demand are included in Tables 2 through 6. Facility locations I are shown on Figure 3.

I I *Source: Mr. Don Zordel, Office of Emergency Preparedness, City of South Haven.

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I I Populations Associated with "Special Events" I

During the year, a number of "special events" take place in the City of South Haven (4.5 to 7 miles NE of the Palisades Nuclear Plant) which result in short-term increases of transient populations. Major events noted include:*

I 1) Art Fair. Occurring on the Sunday following July 4th.

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2) Blueberry Festival. Scheduled for July 16-20, 1980 I with total attendance estimated at 10,000 persons.

I 3) Craft Fair. Occurring on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend with an estimated attendance of 10,000 I persons.

I Other events include an Independence Day Parade (July 4th), Maritime Festival (scheduled June 1-8, 1980 with visiting ships), and the Coho Fisning Festival (occurring on a summer I weekend with 80 to 100 boats participating)

Vehicles associated with these events were not included in I the following estimates of vehicle demand, since they occur only on several days during the year.

I Vehicle Demand Estimates I The estimated summer (Figure 4) and winter (Figure 5~

vehicle (private automobile) demand distributions were based on I the following occupancy factors and estimates:

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Summer Weekend Estimate* Winter Weekday Estimate*

1. One vehicle per permanent 1. One vehicle per permanent residence (Table 1) residence (Table 1)

I 2. One vehicle per unit at 2. Same, but includes only facilities open year-accommodations such as I 3.

motels (Table 3)

One vehicle per campsite 3.

round (Table 3)

Camping not included or other estimate for rec-I reational areas (Table 4)

4. Major employers not in- 4. Major employers in area I eluded in estimate, week-end condition assuming fewer workers at place of (Table 2), weekday condition assuming workforce at major employment locations employment I The resultant vehicle demand distributions for the various I 1980 population categories are included in Appendix B.

Figures 4 and 5 combine individual vehicle demand estimates I

associated with permanent, and transient populations for assumed summer and winter conditions. T~e approach to estimating vehicle demand may result in some double counting of vehicles. These vehicle demands were used to estimate sector evacuation times between the point of notification to evacuate, I and the point of confirmation that an evacuation has been completed. The method used to estimate general evacuation I times is described in Section 5.3. A discussion of notification procedures, general evacuation times, status of I

• No separate estimate of vehicle demand associated with seasonal I units was made for this analysis. A survey of units was con-duc-ted during the summer of 1979 by Consumers Power Company for the area within 5-miles of the Palisades site. A factor of one I vehicle per unit wa*s applied to the survey counts for the area (i.e., for both permanent and seasonal units). In addition, there is an annual influx of migrant workers into the area.

The number and distribution of migrant workers was not avail-

~ble. It is assumed that migrants will be included in the gen-eral evacuation.

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I I evacuation procedures for facilities with special needs, and possible confirmation procedures is also included in Section 5.

Several sources of information were used to estimate vehicle demand. A field survey of housing units, conducted in I the summer of 1979 by Consumers Power Company, was used to estimate the population and its sector distribution within five I miles of the site. A copy of this survey is included as Appendix C. Vehicle demand estimates and their distribution for the area between five and ten miles of the site were based I on available 1980 city and township population projections (see Table 1), postal address survey data and a review of I township maps.

I 3.2 Population and Vehicle Estimates Associated with Facilities Having Special Evacuation Needs I A number of facilities located within the 10-mile radius were identified which have special evacuation needs. For I example, these facilities include the medical, (see Table 5),

educational, (see Table 6), and other facilities requiring I special consideration. Vehicle demands for these special facilities were not included in the summer and winter estimates I a~sociated with the general population (see Figures 4 and 5).

Evacuation of special facilities would require the use of a I combination of additional automobiles, buses, or emergency vehicles (ambulances). Evacuation of special facilities are addressed separately in Section 5.4.

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I 4. ROAb NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS AND EVACUATION ROUTES I The road network utilized in the general evacuation analysis is shown in Figure 6. An inventory of the physical I and operational characteristics of the road network within the 10-mile radius of the Palisades Nuclear Site has been I developed. Results of the inventory are summarized in Table 7, which is keyed to Figure 6.

Segments of routes within the network links were driven and I timed as part of the inventory process. Figure 6 also shows measured driving times for selected road segments. Field I timings of links were taken on January 10th and 11th, 1980.

The main roads were clear of snow, but wet, and the secondary I roads had snow and ice in spots. These times do not represent a worst-case situation but they do reflect an adverse-weather I condition.

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Tne road network inventory information was used to calculate evacuation times for analysis areas. Evacuation routings for sectors analyzed are shown on figures included in Appendix E.

I As described in Section 2, the 10-mile area surrounding the plant has an adequate number of excellent egress routes.

I I-196, the Blue Star Highway, M-140, and *M-43 are the major egress routes from the area surrounding the Palisades Nuclear I Plant. In addition, these routes have higher vehicle capacities than the numerous secondary routes within the 10-mile study area. The majority of the study area is rural I and the roadway network reflects this. The roads vary from asphalt/bituminous to gravel. The topography within the I 10-mile r~dius can be generally .characterized as level resulting in few steep grades.

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I 5. EVACUATION TIMES I

5.1 Summary An analysis has been performed to estimate the time that might elapse for completing a public evacuation of each of the I sector configurations shown on Figure 2. The NRC letter requested estimates for the time that would elapse from initial notification of the need to evacuate ('fime period one, T-1) to I the time that the defined sector evacuation is completed within the 0 to 2-, 0 to 5-, and 0 to 10-mile radii (Time period two, I T-2), to the time special facilities are evacuated, if not completed within the general evacuation period (Time period I three, T-3), and to* the point in time that confirmation of evacuation has occured (Time period four, T-4).

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general evacuation were made. The results of this analysis are shown in Table 8. No other estimates were developed. An etfort has been made to present information for both an assumed summer fair-weather condition, and a winter adverse-weather I condition. The following subsections elaborate on analyses related to the four time periods listed above.

I 5.2 Assessment and Notification to Evacuate - Time Period One I An evaluation of the time periods associated with recognizing a general emergency condition, assessing off-site I radiological consequences, and notifying off-site authorities and, if necessary, the general public involve assumptions that I stem from the emergency planning framework which have been established for the Palisades Nuclear Plant. Such assumptions I are based on the Palisades Emergency Operation Plan arrangements and methods as they are currently conceived .

I An Annex of the Van Buren County Emergency Operations Plan outlines actions to be implemented by the "Warning Officer",

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I based on the initial information of an accident at the Palisades Nuclear Plant. These major notification time steps are as follows:

I a) Notify the Communications Officer to activate the "EOC Activation Alert List" as found in the*

I Direction and Control Annex. A copy of the alert list is attached as Appendix F. A direct telephone line between the plant, the Sheriff's Department a'nd I the EOC presently exists.

I b) Provide available information to dis~atch points in adjacent counties (Berrien, Allegan).

I c) Notify Deputy Emergency Preparedness Coordinators in I Van Buren County municipalities of the situation* and 1*

advise them to stand-by to support county operations.

d) Coordinate with the Emergency _Public Information Officer to determine the appropriate message to be I used in public notif~ation.

I e) Coordinate with EOC officials (including Public Health, NRC, Public Information Officer, Emergency I Preparedness Director, Emergency Public Information Officer, etc.) to determine which sectors require public notification for required protective actions.

I f) Alert station managers of radio and television I stations to be prepared to transmit Emergency Public Information materials as.provided by the Public I Infarmation Officer .

I g) Coordinate with Law Enforcement. and Fi re Services to extend public notification by sector, utilizing public address systems on emergency vehicles.

I h) Follow-up with a door-to-door distribution of mass produced, detailed Emergency Public Information materials by Law Enforcement and Fire Services personnel, utilizing protective devices as necessary.

'I It is estimated that initial contacts on the EOC Activation I Alert List would be made within 10 to 30 minutes. This estimate is based on a test alert conducted by the Van Buren County Sheriff's Office. Items b), c), and d) all involve I activities which could take place simultaneously with item a) activities. Time estimates for these three items (b, c, and d)

I are therefore included within the 10-30 minute initial notification estimate.

I Notification steps e) through i) would require additional time to implement. These steps include activities which extend I public notification to sectors and assume a door-to-door type notification. Item i) includes notification of infirm and disabled persons.

I No notification time estimates for t~ese five items (e through i) were made, since insufficient information presently I exists.~~

The addition of either sirens and/or a telephone I notification system would, if implemented, reduce notification times. The development of such additional notification systems I for areas surrounding the Palisades Nuclear Plant is presently being studied by Consumers Power Company. The systems would, I if developed, provide the first level(s) of notification which could be followed by door-to-door type notification.

I For the area within the 2-mile rarlius of the plant, a I telephone call list may be prepared. This list would be developed and notification responsibilities assigned to agencies with 24-hour staffing, including Covert and South Haven police and fire departments, and State Police in South Haven, and the Van Buren County Sheriff's Department.

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I I 5.3 General Evacuation - Time Period Two I

In order to determine the time needed to evacuate vehicles from the various sectors, roadway ~apacities must be determined. Roadway capacity is expressed in vehicles per hour (v/h). Once the roadway capacities are known, vehicles can be routed through the network. Clear times will be much hiiher if I the flow of vehicles on a roadway approacnes its capacity.

Roadway capacities were determined by following procedures I outlined in the Highway Capacity Manual.* Physical data for each roadway were needed before the capacities could be I calculated. A field inspection of the majority of roads within 10 miles of the plant was undertaken to collect the necessary I data. Table 7 presents the results of this investigation.

Capacity calculations are based on the assumption that each I travel lane has a theoretical capacity of 2,000 v/h.**

Modifications to this value are made based on the number of travel lanes, lane width, distance to nearest obstruction, I worst traffic grade and the percentage o~ trucks on the roadway. Roadway capacity is increased with an increase in the I lane width and number of travel lanes. If there is a sufficiently wide paved shoulder, an extra lane may be possible I during an evacuation. This possibility was not included in the evacuation analysis.

I An ohstruction (guardrail, telephone pole, mailbox, etc.)

at the inner edge of a roadway reduces capacity as drivers tend to slow down to avoid the obstruction. Where a paved or gravel I shoulder was present, an obstruction was assumed to be present at the edge of the shoulder. Wnere no shoulder was present, an 11 obstruction was assumed to be at the pavement edge, allowing for a more conservative capacity value.

I It is not anticipated that heavy duty trucks will be used in an evacuation. The presence of large trucks results in a I

• Highway Research Board, Highway Capacity Manual, National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Special Report 87, 1965.

• • See Appendix D.

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I reduced roadway capacity. Under normal conditions, a significant number of trucks would not be expected on secondary roads. For conservatism, trucks were assumed to be present on the major highways (i.e., 1-196, M-140, and M-43). The I percentage of trucks on these arterials was obtained from the 1978 Michigan Highw~ys Sufficiency Rating.* The roadway grade is included in the capacity calculations where trucks are I present. If an uphill grade is present on a roadway with trucks, the theoretical capacity will be reduced.

I There are several signalized intersections in the 10-mile radius. The locations of these intersections are shown on I Figure 6. The Highway Capacity Manual contains a procedure for determining roadway capacity based on the green time of a I signal. Appendix D contains sample calculations illustrating the methodology used to arrive at the intersection capacity, as well as the other roadway capacities.

I Using the vehicle demand figures, total projected auto demand by sector was determined. The sectors are shown on I Figure 2. Evacuation times for any sector delineation can easily be determined depending on the egiess route for that I sector.

In assigning the identified vehicle demand to the road I network, vehicles were apportioned to the evacuation route, previously identified, within or nearest to the major I population center(s) within each sector or ring. In those cases where there was more than one route, population was split evenly among them, unless roadway capacities dictated a I different apportionment. For example, if one road had a capacity significantly higher than another, it would receive I more of the demand than would be indicated by a 50-50 split.

Cumulative vehicle demand was derived by adding to a road:

I a) the demand estimated to be originating near it; and I

• Michigan Department of State Highways and Transportation, Michigan Highways Sufficiency Rating, Report No. 153, 1978.

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I b) all the demand from vehicles upstream which will be I

passing by on their way out of the evacuation area.

While demand at any one time on a road would not be equal to the total cumulative demand, it was assumed that all cars were on the network at the same time. The {mplication of this I is that, from the time of first vehicle movement, the furthest downstream roads always have vehicles moving on them. This is important in the clear time calculations, as will be seen below.

I Clear ti~es were defined as the time to clear the evacuation area of all vehicles, starting from the point at I which notification of the public is complete. The method used involved calculating clear times for all major evacuation I routes. Not all routes necessarily start at the plant site;*

however, the longest routes tend to originate there.

I For each road segment of a route, the time to clear the vehicles projected to use that route was calculated. In the case where demand was less than capacity, cars were assumed to I travel with three seconds between them (3-second headway). The assumption of 3-second headways is considered reasonable, since I it yields a maximum flow of only 1,200 vehicles pe~ hour. This implies that when demand is less than capacity, no matter how I high the capacity, traffic flows at no more than 1,200 vehicles per hour. Most secondary roads in the area have a calculated I capacity of about 1,200 vehicles per hour. In addition, a 3-second headway allows for a safe stopping distance.

For example, in a 2-mile evacuation, 200 vehicles will I traverse* the plant access road. Allowing three seconds for each vehicle, it would take about ten minutes to clear the I segment.

Where demand would exceed capacity, the *calculated capacity I was used as the m~ximum flow rate.* *In this case, dividing I

• Tnis implies a time headway of 3,600/capacity seconds. Where capacity is greater than 1,200 vehicles per hour, this esti-mate yields time headways of less than the assumed free-flow 3-second headway.

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I demand by capacity gave an estimate of clear time for the segment. This method was used when demand exceeded capacity,since the roadway capacity was the constraining factor. The headway method was used when demand did not exceed I capacity as the demand was the constraining factor.

After clear times for each link were calculated, it was necessary to determine route clear times. An imaginary last I car was routed through the network and the clsar time calculated for each evacuation route, by sectors, for both I winter and summer scenarios. Table 8 lists the maximum calculated clear times for each evacuation route. The route I clear times and vehicle demands for each analysis are shown on figures contained in Appendix E.

I Several factors were not included in the analysis. There

.will be a queue where vehicles are leaving a parking lot or where vehicles cross intersections or turn into traffic. In I addition, the model basicalli assumed no formal traffic con-1*

I trol. Vehicles were routed along a route which would probably be taken under normal conditions. Some control is inherent in the model as vehicles were not allowed to travel towards the plant, even if a faster clear time could be realized.

It was assumed that during the time of notification, all I external traffic (i.e., through traffic not included in demand estimates) will be cleared from the network, and roadblocks I will be set up to prevent other traffic from entering. Traffic control will. be available to the extent that the above action can be taken, and to help minimize turning movement conflicts I at intersections. Finally, even though demand will build up at the beginning, and taper off at the end of the evacuation, it I is assumed that traffic flow is uniform during the evacuation.

This maximizes delays and therefore clear times.

I The number of vehicles in the summer analysis represents normal conditions. There are special events which occur during I

the summer. Vehicles associated with these events were not included in the general evacuation analysis as they are only present for a few days out of the year.

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I In an actual situation, it is reasonable to assume that the agencies and personnel responsible for conducting an orderly evacuation would adapt to actual conditions as they developed.

It is beyond the capability of the simple analytical model to I account for this kind of adjustment. For example, if it were observed that a particular route was becoming overly congested while traffic on another nearby route was light, traffic *could I be diverted from the more crowded to the less congested route.

Similarly, traffic could be directed to use both lanes outbound I on certain 2-lane roads to speed the evacuation process.

Actions such as these would produce evacuation times which are I faster than the times estimated in this analysis.

Consideration has been given to accomplishing an evacuation I without the Llse of vehicles. Walking is a viable alternative to evacuating by vehicle. Assuming an able-bodied adult walking at 2.5 miles per hour from the plant via the Blue Star I Highway either north or south to the 2-mile radius,(about 2.5 miles), one hour would elapse. Continuing at the same rate to I the 5 (about six miles) and 10 (about 11) mile radii via the Blue Star Highway, the walking times wouid be about 2-1/2 and I 4-1/2 hours, respectively. These walking times assume a fair weather condition.

I 5.4 Special Facilities Evacuation I General Considerations I Notification to evacuate and confirmation of evacuation of areas will involve both individual residen~es as well as other I populated facilities and locations. Total population in areas surrounding the plant will vary. Populations associated with I selected facilities such as those noted in Tables 2 through 6 will b~ notified and evacuated as part of general evacuation to I

the maximum extent possible. It is assumed that persons located at major employers (Table 2), overnight accommodations (Table 3) and most other facilities within an evacuation area will rely on passenger vehicles for transportation.

I 11 I Facilities for which special evacuation requirements could exist include medical facilities (see Table 5) and educational I

fucilities (see Table 6). Medical facilities include two hospitals and two nursing homes (one a basic nursing home and the other a skilled nursing home). These medical-related facilities are located between the 5- and 10-mile radii from the Palisades Nuclear Plant. Evacuation of such facilities I could require the use of a combination of additional transport vehicles. Soille infirm and handicapped persons residing in the area may likewise require supplementary assistance and transportation. No major correctional facilities were I identified in the study area. It is assumed that local police and fire officials will assist persons with special evacuation I needs during an evacuation.

Ambulance Demand I

Emergency vehicles would be required if evacuation of the I medical facilities was required. These facilities would have the greatest concentration of persons with special evacuation I needs. Some patients would need to be evacuated by ambulance from these facilities and transported to other hospitals or I nursing homes outside the area. No estimate of ambulance demand was made as part of this reporting. It is expected that the majority of patients and staff at these facilities could be I evacuated by private automobile in an emergency. Evacuating "special need" patients would be evaluated on a case-by-case I basis by administrators and staff of the respective facilities. No estimate of emergency vehicle requirements for I infirm or handicapped persons at other locations was made.

Evacuation of persons with special needs will be coordinated I through the EOC and Van Buren County Sheriff's Department.

I *Annex J of the City of South Haven Emergency Operations Plan provides information of the subject of emergency health and I medical services.

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• School Bus Transportation I

Evacuation of educational facilities (see Table 6) would require use of buses as a primary mode of transport. No educational facilities were identified within the 2-mile radius. Ten such facilities were identified within the City of South Haven, 4-1/2 to 7 miles northeast of the Palisades I Nuclear Plant. A total school related population (students aDd staff) for facilities in South Haven is estimated at 3,500 I persons. No detailed estimate of bus requirements was made~*

Several camps and recreational areas were identified I within the 10-mile radius.

requirements for these facilities No estimate of possible vehicle WdS made as part of this I reporting ..

It is assumed that evacuation of educational facilities, camps and recreational areas would be directed by I administrators and staff at these facilities. Additional 1*

I transportation, if required, would be coordinated through the EOC and Van Buren County Sheriff's Evacuation of Boaters Departm~nt.

I Recreational boating and fishing occurs in the area.

Notification and assistance in evacuation and confirmation of evacu~tion of boaters on Lake Michigan would be directed by the I U.S. ~UAlY GVA~~ .

personnel. The Michigan Department of VAN 8Uil6.JI CO, rHt::-.&J:."'t=

Natural Resources, ~. the City of South Haven, I Marine off ice may also provide additional support related to evacuation of persons from water bodies. Evacuation of persons I from other water bodies in the area would be undertaken as part of the general evacuation.

I I

• Annex L of the Ciy of South Haven Erner ency 0 eration Plan (School Service Annex provi es in ormat1on on emergency evacuation procedures. Included in this Annex is a South Haven School Bus Inventory. It indicates that there are 24 buses with a combined capacity of 1,560 persons.

I I

I

• Evacuation During "Special Events" I

A number of "special events" occur in the City of South Haven each year. Major events identified which result in large increases in population for a periods are briefly described number of days during these in Section 2.

The EOC, Van Buren County Sherrif 's Office, and the City of I South Haven Police Department will coordinate notification and evacuation of persons associated with special events.

I 5.5 Confirmation of Evacuation I Confirmation of an evacuation implies a thorough review of I areas notified. No estimates of evacuation confirmation times were made due to insufficient information. However, it may be assumed that confirmation times would be roughly comparable to I notification time estimates.

I 5.6 Total Evacuation Time I Emergency evacuation involves:

I 0 notificatio"n as described in Section 5.2 whereby broadcast of a general emergency is followed by door-to-door type notification, I

evacuation including the evacuation of facilities I and persons with special needs, and I confirmAtion that evacuation is complete.

I Some time overlap between these three activities is likely to occur in an emergency requiring evacuation as a protective measure. This overlap results in conservative total evacuation I times, if tne times to complete the three activities are I

I I

I added together. These totals assume that evacuation of persons with special needs occurs within the notification, general evacuation, and confirmation time periods.

Maximum general evacuation clear times, for the areas I within the 2-, 5-, and 10-mile radii were made. The maximum general evacuation clear time estimates for the five analysis I areas (see Table 9 and Figure 2) are described separately below. These estimates do not include time required for evacuation notification and evacuation confirmation.* The I maximum clear times likewise do not include evacuation time estimates for facilities or individuals with special needs.

I

• Analysis Area One, 0-2 Miles I The estimated maximum clear time for the entire 0- to I 2-mile radius is about one-half hour using the summer vehicle demand estimate. The time estimate is 11 minutes using the winter vehicle demand estimate.

I

• Analysis Area Two, 0-5 Miles I

The maximum clear times for both the summer and winter I vehicle demand estimates are the same - approximately 1/2 hour.

I Analysis Area Three, 0-5 Miles The maximum summer clear time estimate for area three is I about one hour. Th~ winter estimate was calculated to be aµproximately two hours and 15 minutes. The longer clear time I is due to the increased vehicle demand.

I Analysis area five includes the City of South Haven, Mr. D.

Zordel estimates notification time as 1/2-hour, general evacuation at 1-1/2 hours, and confirmation time at 2-1/2 hours for the city. Source: Milt Jury, Consumers Power Company per conversation witn Mr. Zordel. Likewise, the Covert Fire Chief, Mr. Anthony Sarno roughly estimates 0-2 I mile notification requiring 1 to 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 2 to 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> for areas in Covert Township within approximately five miles.

I I

I

• Analysis Area Four, 0-10 Miles I

The maximum general evacuation clear time estimate for analysis area .four is approximately two hours for both summer and winter scenarios.

I Analysis Area Five, 0-10 Miles Analysis area five has the longest calculated clear time I estimates. The summer and winter estimates are approximately 2-1/2 hours.*

I I

I 1*

I I

I I

I

• Analysis area five includes the City of South Haven, Mr. D.

I Zordel estimates notification time as 1/2-hour, general evacuation at 1-1/2 hours, and confirmation time at 2-1/2 hours for the city. Source: Milt Jury, Consumers Power Company per conversation with Mr. Zordel. Likewise, the I Covert Fire Chief, Mr. Anthony Sarno roughly estimates 0-2 mile notification requiring 1 to 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 2 to 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> for areas in Covert Township within approximately five miles.

I I

TABLES I

I TABLE 1 ESTIMATE OF DWELLING UNITS, 1980 South Haven Township l,46l(l) 3,046( 4 )

I South Haven City Covert_ Township l,349(l)

---;;l;--~~~~~B-a_n_g_o_r~T-o-wn~s~h-i-.p~~~~~~~~~~~~~~----'-~~-8-Z9~1~'~~~~~~~~

Bangor City 881( 4 )

Hartford Township 1,200( 4 )

I Hartford City 982( 4 )

Geneva Township l,077(l)

I Hagar Township Coloma Township 1,607( 2 )

1,714( 2 )

679( 2 )

I Coloma City Watervliet Township 929( 2 )

786( 2 )

I Watervliet City Casco Twonship 1,232( 3 )

I (l)Source: Van Buren County Planning Office - Postal Street Address counts for 1979. Current population may be estimated by multi-I plying by 2.8 persons per address.- Ms. K. GratkowsKi.

( 2 )source:

I Berrien County Planning Office - County Population Projections for 1980 ~ 2.8 persons per w_1it - Mr. A. Anthony.

I ( 3 )source: Casco Township Supervisor, Mr. R. Lyman, no current estimate available. 1970 census population was ~2300.

I 2, 300 ~ 2. 8 ~821 units (1970). Assuming 50% growth between 1970 and 1980, 821 units x 1.50 = 1,232.

I ( 4 )source: Van Buren County Planning Office - 1970 Census. (The 1970 census numbers were multiplied by 1. 18 to account for the I 18% increase in population in Van Buren from 1970 to 1980.

This 18% increase is documented in the "Revised Provisional I

1977 Population Projections for Berrien, Cass, and Van Buren Counties".

I

- - - - - - - - '- -* - - - - - - - - - . TABLE 2 MAJOR EMPLOY.ERS within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Address and Sector Employment(l)

Code Name Telephone Location Group Notes Soµth Haven El Palisades Nuclear South Haven E/0-1 200 employees So urce: Milton Jury, Plant Co sumers Power Co.

in Alpha Engineering, 562 Broadway NNE/45 A South Inc. 637-5137 Haven Anderson Box 1450 Kalamazoo St. NNE/4-5 A l Company Antran Electronics Co.

637-5134, 637-5135 Blue Star Hwy.

PO Box 252 NNE/4-5 B 637-5205 B & K Machine 100 Aylworth Ave. NNE/4-5 B Two shifts Products, Inc. 637-3001 Baars Printing 317 Hogans Alley NNE/4-5 A Company 637-1064 .

Blueberry Equipment, 1375 Kalamazoo St. NNE/4-5 B Two shifts In~. 637-4850 Bohn Aluminum & 201 Aylworth Ave.* NNE/4-5 G Three shifts Brass Co., Division 637-5161 of Universal Ameri-can Corp.-Plant 6 Controlled Rubber 1425 Kalamazoo St. NNE/4-5 E Three shifts Products, Inc. 637-2181 (l)employment group: A= 1 to 10 employees, B = 11 to 25, c= 26 to 50, D 51 to 100, E = 101 to 200, F= 201 to 300, G =over 300 source: Industrialist, South Haven Chamber of Commerce.

---

TABLE 2

• MAJOR EMPLOYERS within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Address and Sector Employment Code Name Telephone Location Group Notes Daggett's Concrete 1500 Kalamazoo St. NNE/4-5 B l Products 637-5222 Diamond Tool Company 246 Broadway NNE/4-5 A Company 637-5408 Do-It Corporation 16th Ave. NNE/2-3 A PO Box 592 637-1121 Double J. Moulding Blue Star Hwy. NNE/4-5 B Rt. 3 637-3943 E-J~y Thermo Blue Star Hwy. NNE/4-5 B Two shifts Products, Inc. 637-5159 Epworth Mfg. Co., 1400 Kalamazoo St. NNE/4-5 B Inc. 637-2128 Everett Piano 900 Indiana Ave. NNE/4-5 G Two shifts Company 637-2194 FMC Corporation 201 Lovejoy St. NNE/4-5 A Agricultural Chem- 637-2148 ical Div.

Four Star Corpora- 1415 Kalamazoo St. NNE/4-5 E Two shifts tion 637-1107 Getman Corporation 815 Wells St. NNE/5-10 D Two shifts PO Box 549

-6 37-2151

~*

TABLE 2 MAJOR EMPLOYERS within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Address and Sector Employment Code Name Telephone Location Group Notes Hamlin-Overton 125 Elkenburg NNE/4-5 D Frame Co. 637-5266 Kalamazoo Inter- 70 Van Buren St. NNE/4-5 A national, Inc. 637-2178 Lovejoy Inc. 300 Lovejoy St. NNE/4-5 D Two shifts, 637-5132 Three shifts at times Michigan Fruit 651 Conger St. NNE/4-5 c Two shifts Canners PO Box 408 637-5121 Michigan Orchard 73rd St. NE/4-5 B Supply Co. PO Box 231 637-1111 Monitor Mold & Airoort Rd. Rt. 3 ENE/3-4 B Two shifts Tool Co. 637:_1804 National Motor South Indiana Ave. NNE/4-5 G Three shifts Castings Opera- 637-8461 tions S.E. Overton 229 Elkenburg NNE/4-5 E Two shifts Company 637-1194 Pat's Pronto Print 415 Broadway NNE/4-5 A 637-6736

• TABLE 2 MAJOR EMPLOYERS within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Address and Sector Employment Code Name Telephone Location Group Notes Precision Machine Rt. 4 Box 2'09A N.A. A

~ Company Randall Company 637-5331 200 Lovejoy St. NNE/4-5 D Two shifts Div. Burkart/ 637-216 7 Randall Textron Co.

Scott Aviation - 1201 Kalamazoo St. NNE/4-5 D Two shifts Plant 4 637-2121 Seiler Models 879 St. Joseph St. NNE/4-5 A 637-2806 Service Press 311 Kalamazoo St. NNE/4-5 A 637-2205 Sherman Dairy, Inc. Rt. 4 Phoenix Rd. NNE/5-lO c PO Box 539-637-1148 South Haven Coil, Blue Star Hwy. NNE/4-5 c Two shifts Inc. 6'37-5201 South Haven Re di- M-140 PO Box 205 NNE/4-5 B Mix 637-3103 South Haven Rubber 400 Aylworth Ave. NNE/4-5 E Two shifts Company 637-2116 Stone Quality Meats Rt. 4 N.A. B 637-1606

• TABLE 2 MAJOR EMPLOYERS within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Address and Sector Employment Code Name Telephone Location Group Notes System Components 76 Aylworth Ave. NNE/4-5 B WO shifts 637-1595 J Wyckoff Chemical Co. 1421 Kalamazoo Ave. NNE/4-5 B Two shifts 637-8474 in Bangor Bangor Adams Electronics 16 Charles St. E/ 5-10 134 employees Two shifts l Du-Wel Metal 427-7961 M-43 West E/5-10 225 employees Info. Source:

Ms. Williams Three shifts Products, Inc. 160 employees at plant, 65 employees at administration bldg.

Degrandchamp' s 14th Ave. NNE/3-4 N.A.

Blueberry 637-3915 Plantation Triple S Orchards M-43 West E/ 5-10 N.A.

427-8205 N.A. Not Available

---

TABLE 3

• ACCOMMODATIONS (Hotels, Motels, Cottages) within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Location and Sector Number of Yearly Information Code Name Telephone Location Vehicles Schedule /source South Haven Al Holly Inn M-140 and I-196 NNE/4-5 35 All year 35 units - Chamber of Motel Business Loop ComrnJrce Brochure 637-5141 A2 Sunset* 401 N. Shore Dr. NNE/5-10 20 Summer I

Don Zordel Cottages 637-2727 A3 Lake Inn 62nd St. (South ENE/5-10 12 Summer I

Chamber of Corrnnerce Resort of Phoenix) Brochure 637-4769 A4 Fidelman' s Phoenix Rd. NE/5-10 175 Extended Don Zordel, Closed for Resort & 637-5118 sunnner 3 mrths in winter Motel AS Lake Bluff M-58 and 11th NNE/3-4 32 All year Cha~ber of Commerce Motel Ave. BroG:hure 637-6400 A6 Sleepy Hollow North Shore Dr. NNE/5-10 80 Summer Don Zordel Resort 637-1127 A7 Yorks Blue- P.O. Box 473 NNE/5-10 10 Summer Don Zordel water Beach North Shore Rd.  :::9 cottages at Baseline Rd.

637-3294 A8 Sunny Brook R.R.4 NE/5-10 8n Summer Don Zordel Farm 637-4796

- - *- - - - - - - -* - - - - - - - - -TABLE 3 ACCOMMODATIONS (Hotels, Motels, Cottages) within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Location and Sector Number of Yearly Information Code

- - Name Tele:ehohe Location Vehicles Schedule /Source A9 South Haven Blue Star Hwy. NNE/5-10 10 All year Don zlordel Motel at Phoenix Rd. 9-10 units 637-3808 AlO Sun 'n Sand Blue Star Hwy.N NNE/5-10 25 Summer

• Don Zordel I

• Resort 637-2007 ~25 uni ts All Blue Bird Covert SE/3-4 6 I

Don Z:ordel Motel ".:::5-6/units Al2 Schick Motel 5215 Paw *Paw S/5-10 13 All year Owner

& Resort Lake Rd. 9 uni.ts Coloma 4 cottages 468-4080 Al3 Plaza Motel 4923 N. Water- SSE/5-10 14 All year Owner I vliet Rd. 14 uhits Watervliet 463-5712 Al2 Wil-0-Paw 4881 Wil S/5-10 9_ All year Owner Motel Paw Dr. 9 units Coloma 468-6080

• - TABL-CAMPGROUNDS & BEACHES within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Address and Sector Vehicle Code Name Telephone Location Estimate Notes Cl Allegan State NNE/5-10 200 Don Zordel, SummJr Forest & Game Ken Schultz-attetidant at Covert Preserve Park estimates mdx. park popula-tion at 400 camp~rs & 200 walk-ins C2 Covert Town- CR-378 at Lake SSW/1-2 150 Don Zordel, Summer I

ship -Park Michigan I.

C3 Jensen's Route 5 NNE/5-10 130 115 campsites, 14 motel rooms Travel 637-3544 Source: Chamber of Commerce Trailer Park Brochure

& Campgrounds C4 Van Buren Ruggles Rd. So. NNE/0-1 400 Don Zordel, 250 campsites State Park Beach Chamber o~ Commerce Brochure Lawrence Kern & Leroy Bross, Park Managers estima ed max. population of park at 2943.

cs Singing Sand Rt. 2, 262 NNE/5-10 90 Don Zordel RV Park 262 N. 74th St.

637-3919 C6 Moon Lake R.R.:/FS Box 254 ENE/10+ 45 45 campsites

. Campground 253-4356 or Source: Brochure from cam~ground 253-4484 C7 Benton Harbor 3527 Coloma Rd. ssw;s..:10 125 KOA Riverside Source: KOA Brochure 849-3333

• TABLE 4 CAMPGROUNDS ~ BEACHES within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Address and Sector Vehicle Code Name Telephone Location Estimate Notes I

CB Dune Lake Covert S/3-4 30 Don Zordel, 25-30 vehicles on summer day C9 North Beach South Haven NNE/5-10 200 Don Zordel C9 South Beach South Haven NNE/5-10 10() Don Zordel ClO Black River South Haven NNE/5-10 200 Don Zordel Town Park Cll Camp Warren 2378 Maple SSW/5-10 N.A. Source: Mrs. Wi ber Hayes Township Year-round cam~ owned by the 849-1433 Berrien Coun.ty douncil of Churches Cl2 Camp Water-lietBoyer Rd. SSE/5-10 15() Winter weekends 40 oeople vliet (Cedar Summer 150 oeoRle * -

Lodge) Source: Chris Cochrane Don Kerbis Red Arrow Hwy. N.A. N.A. No information Jvailable Tennis Ranch Watervliet 463-3151 Paw Paw River M-140 N.A. N.A. Phone temporarily disconnected Trading Post Watervliet

& Campgrounds 463-5454 Cl3 Rush Lake RFD 1 SE/5-10 N.A.

Camp grounds Hartford 621-4684

- - *- - --------------- TABLE 5

• MEDICAL RELATED FACILITIES within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant(l)

Map Address and Sector Population Vehicle Code Name Telephone Location Estimate Estimate Not~s Notes Ml South Haven Com- 950 S. Bailey St. NNE/5-10 82 beds AdmJnistrator: Wayne munity Hospital 637-5271 Eagieson - Full-time and /part-time *staff

~167, Rita Smothers M2 Watervleit 541 N. Main SSE/ 5-10 70 beds I

Administrators Office-Hospital 463-3117 '

Secretary-No estimates of ~taffing available M3 Countryside 120 Baseline Rd. NNE/ 5-10 90 Conhact I

oerson:

Mindy Nursing Home South Haven Brownfield (Lowell 637-8411 Chu[ch), Basic Nursing Home - fewer disabili-tie~, 5 bedridden persons M4 Restwood Inn 850 Phillip St. NNE/ 5-10 125 Contact person: Larry South Haven Olslon - Ms. Maxwell 637-5147 Sk~lled Nursing Home-112

• use of emergency vehicles and additional support personnel may be required .

. (l)Th~ South Haven Community Hospital may be evacuated to the Lakeview Hospital in Paw Paw or would persons associated with the Countryside Nursing Home and Restwood Irln in an emergency.

The Watervliet Hospital would most likely be evacuated to Mercy Hospital, Benton Harbor and Memorial Hospital, St. Joe.

• TABLE 6 EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant (l)

Map Address and Sector Population Vehicle Code Name Telephone Location Estimate Estimate Notes South Haven Public Schools Sl Senior High 600 Elkenburg NNE/5-10 1100 (Buses) Source: South Haven Ptlblic School Direc-t~ry 1979-1980 S2 Junior High Broadway NNE/5-iO 500 (Buses) slurce: South Haven P~blic School Direc-td:iry 1979-1980 S2 Central Erie Street NNE/5-10 (Buses)

I Source: South Haven I

Elementary Phblic School Direc-S3 Hartman Hubbard Street NNE/5-10 (Buses)  :~::c~~79:~::: Haven Elementary 1520 I Ppblic School Direc-tory 1979-1980 S4 Indiana Indiana Avenue NNE/5-10 (Buses) s/ource: South Haven Elementary ~ublic School Direc-Jory 1979-1980 Sl Lincoln Elkenburg St. NNE/5-10 (Buses) ~ource: South Haven Elementary ~ublic School Direc-tory 1979-1980 SS Maple Grove I

12th Ave. NE/4-5 110 (Buses) IDon Zordel Elementary I

I S4 St. Basil's 94 Superior NNE/5-10 152 (K-8) (No buses) School utilizes Catholic South Haven tublic school buses School 637-3529 (l)Should an exit be needed, students would be transported by bus to Saugatuck Public Schools From the South Haven Public Schoo1s, Coloma, Wa~e~~liet and Covert Public/ S~~o~~~ ~il~ likely be evacuated to Benson Harbor Are2 S2hoals. S:--:*,-_,;_-:~1.v. Bano-or Srhools ' T:,, . . ;\ . ,.,v

• TABLE 6 EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Address and Sector Population Vehicle Code Name Telephone Location Estimate Estimate Notes Sl St. Paul's Arbor Court NNE/5-10 80(K-8) (No buses) I Squrce: . . 1.

princioa Lutheran School South Haven sq% of students use 637-4459 oublic school buses, 5cD/o walk or are driven by parents S3 Tiny Tots Pre- 73rd St. N.A. N.A.

School Nursery South Haven 637-1004 Coloma Public Schools S6 Coloma High Red Arrow Hwy. S/5-10 1130 (Buses)_ Source: Joyce Goldner, School Coloma (Grades Administration Office, Coloma Junior 8-12) aoloma School District High 468-6785 I

S6 Coloma Middle West St. S/5-10 580 (Buses) 9ource: Joyce Goldner, School Coloma (Grades ~dministration Office, 5- 7) Coloma School District r68-6785 S6 Coloma Elemen- S/5-10 300 (Buses) Source: Joyce Goldner, tary School Administration Office, poloma *school District

~68-6785

TABLE 6 EJUCATIONAL FACILITIES within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant Map Address and Sector Population Vehicle Code Name Telephone Location Estimate Estimate Notes S6 Washington S/5-10 440 (Buses) I Squrce: Joyce Goldner, Elementary Administration Office, School cdloma School District 468-6785 Coloma Pier 4518 Pier Rd. SSW/5-lQ 53 I S0urce: Joyce Goldner, Elementary Hayes Twnshp. A~ministration Office, cbloma School District 4~8-6785 I

Watervliet Public Schools S7 Watervliet High 450 E. St. SSE/5-10 -:..350 (Buses) Spurce: Sally Anderson School Joseph Supt. of Schools Office Watervliet Watervliet 463-5566 Junior High S7 North Elemen- Baldwin Ave. SSE/5-10 424 (]3uses) Source: Sally Anderson .

tary Schoold 463-6755 S~pt. of Schools Office 4)63-5566 Bangor Pub lie Schools S8 Bangor Middle W. Arlington St. E/5-10 350 (Buses) Source: Superintendent School df Schools Office, 127-7977 S8 Bangor High W. Arlington St. E/5-10 500 (Buses) Source: Superintendent School ~£ Schools Office, 427-7977

- - - - - - - - - -* - - - - - - - - -/

TABLE 6 EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES within 10 Miles of the Palisades Nuclear Plant (l)

Map Address and Sector Population Vehicle Code Name Telephone Location Estimate Estimate Notes Bang*or Public Schools (Cont'd)

S8 Bangor Elementary S. Walnut St. E/5-10 350 _ (Buses) Source: Superintendent of Schools Office I

L~Q. 7- 7 9 7 7 S8 Bangor Elementary N. Walnut St. E/5-10 350 (Buses) s/ource: Sup er int end en t

~f Schools Office 427-7977 I

Covert Puhlic Schools S9 Covert High Main Street SE/2-5 800 (Buses) Source: Covert Public I

School Schools Office, 764-8981 I

S9 Covert Middle Hain Street SE/2-5 800 (Buses) Source:

I Covert Public School Schools Office, 764-8981 S9 Covert Elementary Hain Stree't SE/2-5 800 (Buses) Source: Covert Public School Schools Office, 764-8981

SUMMARY

OF ROAD NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS 0-10 Miles, Palisades Plant Paved Distance to Worst No. of Lane Shoulder Nearest Traffic Link Link Travel Width Width Obstruction Grade Capacity No. Lanes (ft) (ft) (ft) (%) io Truckjs (v/h) 1 2 10 0 0 2 0 1240 2 2 12 0 0 0 0 1520 3 2 10 0 o* 0 0 1240 4 2 9 0 6 2 0 1520 5 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 6 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 7 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 8 2 10 0 0 2 0 1240 9 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 10** 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 11** 2 8* 0 0 2 0 1160 12 2 9 *o 0 2 0 1160 13 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 14 2 10 0 3 2 0 1540 15 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 16** 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 17 2 g-;'c 0 0 2 0 1160 18 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 19 2 10 0 3 2 0 1540 20 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 21 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160

- - - - - - - - -TABLE~- - - - - - - -* - -

SUMMARY

OF ROAD NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS

'J-10 Hiles, Palisades.Plant Paved Distance to Worst No. of Lane Shoulder Nearest Traffic Link Link Travel Width Width Obstruction Grade Ca-pacity No. Lanes (ft) (ft) (ft) (%) I~ Trucks (v/h) 22 2 8* 0 0 2 0 1160 23** 2 8* 0 0 2 0 1160 24 2 9 0 o* 2 0 1160 25 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 26 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 27 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 28 2 10 0 3 2 6 1450 29 2 10 6 6 2 7 1505 30 4 11 0 0 2 7 3160 31 2 10 0 3 2 7 1430

-32*** 2 12 6 6 2 4 720 (A) 10 0 0 2 4 1190 33 3 34*** 2 10 0 1 2* 0 640 35 2 10 0 ~

J 2 0 1540 36 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 37 2 10 0 0 2 0 1240 38 2 10 0 3 2 0 1540 39 2 10 0 0 2 0 1240 40 2 10 0 3 2 0 1540 41 2 10 0 3 2 3 1495 42 2 9 0 0 4 0 1160 I

t

~

- - *- - - - - - -TAB-- - - - - - -*-* - -

SUMMARY

OF ROAD NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS 0-10 Miles, Palisades Plant Paved Distance to Worst No. of Lane Shoulder Nearest Traffic Link Link No.

Travel Lanes Width (ft)

Width (ft)

Obstruction (ft)

Grade

(%) 7, TrucJ Capacity (v/h) 43 4 9 0 0 2 0 2800 44*** 2 10 0 3 2 0 780 45 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 (B) 46**""k 5 12 6 0 2 7 1820 47*** 2 12 0 6 0 5 400 48**7< 4 11 . 0 0 2 7 935 49 CB) 12 2 8 3275 5 0 0 50 2 10 0 3 2 0 1540 51 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 52 2 9 0 0  ;. 2 0 1160 53 2 10 0 3 2 0 1540 54 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 55 2 10 0 0 2 0 1240 56 2 9* 0 0 2 0 1160 57*** 2 9 0 0 *2 0 575 58 2 10 6 0 2 5 1180 59 2 10 0 0 2 7 1155 60 4 11 0 0 2 7 3160 61**"1~ 2 10 0 6 2 5 810 62**ki:: 7 10 5 5 2 0 820 6 3-:~*k 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160

SUMMARY

OF ROAD NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS 0-10 Miles, Palisades Plant Paved Distance to Worst No. of Lane Shoulder Nearest Traffic Link Link Travel Width Width Obstruction Grade Capacity No. Lanes (ft) (ft) (ft) (%)  % Truc~s (v/h) 64*;~ 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 65 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 66** 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 67** 2 10 0 0 2 0 1240 68** 2 8* 0 0 2 0 1160 69 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 70 2 9 0 0 6 0 1160 71 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 72 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 73*** 2 9 6 6 2 0 605 74*** 2 10 0 3 2 0 640 75 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 76** 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 77 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 78** 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 79 2 9 0 0 6 0 1160 80 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 81 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 82 2 10 0 2 2 0 1500 83 2 9 6 6 *2 0 1520 84 2 10 0 3 2 0 1540

• r

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- - - -* *- - TABL

SUMMARY

OF ROAD NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS 0-10 Miles, Palisades Plant Paved Distance to Worst No. of Lane Shoulder Nearest Traffic Link Link Travel Width Width Obstruction Grade Capacity No. Lanes (ft) (ft) (ft) (%) fo Truck~ (v/h) 85 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 86 2 9 0 0 2 0 1160 87 *2 9 0 O* 2 0 1160 88 4 12 6 6 2 18 3400 89*** 4 11 0 0 2 0 1110

• For purposes of capacity calculations using the Manual, must be 9 feJet o

• • Gravel road.

~\--!~~\-Capacity based on signalized intersection.

(A)l lane southbound. .

(B)For capacity calculations, counted as 4 lanes (2 in each direction)o

I I

TABLE 8 GENERAL EVACUATION CLEAR TIME ESTIMATES~*~

I Analysis Evacuation Summer Clear Time Estimates Winter Clear Time Estimates Areas Ra aTi'-------'Rout-es ~Minutes) (Minutes)

I 1 0-2 mi Blue Star Hwy North 31 11 20th Ave. East 7 7 I Blue Star Hwy South I-196 South 7

13 7

6 26 24 I 2 0-5 mi Blue Star Hwy South I-196 South Coloma North Rd. South 18 14 13 12 M-140 South 5 5 I 30th Ave. East 28 29 3 0-5-mi M-140 South 5 5 I

1 30th Ave

• East 8 8 20th Ave. East 26 27 72nd Ave. North 7 8

• I:..196 North 58 38 Blue Star Hwy North 28 135 BL 196 North 27 129 I 4 0-10 mi 30th Ave. East 42nd Ave. East 39 38 39 38 Red Arrow Hwy East 55 55 I M-140 South R.ed Arrow Hwy West 120 120 126 120 118 124 I-196/U.S. 31 South Blue Star Hwy. South 78 75 I 5 0-10 mi Blue Star Hwy North 152 142 I-196 North 158 161 I 66th St. North Phoenix Rd. East 22 21 22 19 20th Ave. East 56 55 I M-43 South

• 30th Ave. East 67 135 6

68 165 6

M-140 South I .*Does not include notification and confirmation period time estimates.

Thus estimates are of the general evacuation period.

I I

'ii

• \ \.

FIGURES I

I N 10 miles I

I I

I

.I LAKE I

I *1*.ro*-

I MICH/GAN

,I I R L:'*

I I --- ....*,.

,*(I I I

~

---.. -* c I

I 1.

I FIGURE 1 LOCATION OF COUNTY AND TOWNSHI~ BOUNDARIES WITHIN I 10-MILE RADIUS OF THE PALISADES NUCLEAR ~LA,NT 61 011 ..* 1 _, *~****' g Ai.*..e*u'l.t* *1 IP!!t!!!!!.tL_ ~,.. I' ** ~.::.*1.-111j

I I O 1 I I B=.£3 ::J_:;:::c-:c~-=t:::_::_-::-=~J .::==:_-:__c_c_J I

I 10 miles I

I LA K £ I

I I

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FIGURE 2 STUDY AREAS I

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= j _._~..!lo**~,';., __ -;io=-'>"""'--~~--~ ~ - ___.,..

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10 miles I

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I 5 I LAKE I -_*-;. -J* -.. -.

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BREEDSVIL I! 1 ' 1

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FIGURE 3 LOCATION OF SELECTED I

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I NE I

• 1

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I 1303 I

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• 1**. 2458 I

1 FIGURE 4 NUMBER OF VEHICLES - ASSUMED SUMMER

• 1 * "*

'{

(includes vehicles associated with:

Population, Accommodations, Campgrounds, and.Recreational Boating)

I ____ _

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• I I

NE I

• 1 777 L (l'J[

536

.I I ,,.

I 1662 . E:

I I 415

£SE I 31 I

2458 I IU

_1 *-~*-*~- -- --- .-..

C.

I FIGURE;. 5 NUMBER OF VEHICLES - ASSUMED ~INTER (includes vehicles associated with:

I Population, Winter Acconnnodations, and Major Employers) 1---

DOCUMENT PAGE '

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NO. OF PAGES REASON:

D PAGE ILLEGIBLE:

0 HARD COPY FILED Ai: PDR CF OTHER-----

D BrntR COPY REQUES'TED ON J J--

~AGE 100 LARGE 10 FILM:

0 HARD COPY FILED AT: PDR @

OTHER-----

IT(F1LMED ON APERTURE CARD NO ~00 ~O / 0 3t:J c/

APPENDICES I

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I APPENDIX A I NRC AND MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT I OF TRANSPORTATION LETTERS I

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I APPENDIX A I NRC LETTER I

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I UNITED STATES .

NUCLEAR REGULATORY.COMMISSION I WASHINGTON, D. C. 20555 November 29, 1979 I

I ALL POWER REACTOR LICENSEES I Gentlemen:

This letter, which is being sent to all licensees authorized to operate a I nuclear power reactor and to all applicants for a license to operate a power_

reactor (FSAR docketed)_, is a request for infonnation regarding estimates for evacuation of various areas around nuclear power reactors. The requested .

I information is in addition to that requested by the October 10, 1979 lett~r to all .power r*eactor licensees from Darrell G. *Ehenhut>> Acting Director, Divis~on of .Operating Reacto*rs, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation.

I Although evacuation time estimates are expected to be prepared in the course of the upgrading of the state of emergency preparedness as specified in the*

I October 10, 1979 letter, submission of these estimates to the NRC is being requested on an accelerated time scale so that the NRC can identify those instances in which unusual evacuation constraints exist and special planning measures should be considered. In some cases of extreme difficulty where a large population is at risk, special facility modifications may also be appropriate. The requested information will also enable the NRC to be responsive to a recommendation from the Environment, Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee of the House Cull!Tlittee on Government Operations.

I The information requested in the enclosure should be submitted no later than January 31, 1980.

I The October 10, 1979 letter indicated that efforts to develop a model plan were continuing. It now appears that the model plan will not be completed on a schedule which will be of use in developing upgraded plan~ for the I requested January l, 1980 submittal. The upgraded plan development should therefore proceed on a site-specific basis.

d~~~~~~

I I t Brian K. Grim~s, Director Emergency Preparedness Task Group I

Enclosure:

Office of .Nuclear Reactor Regulation Request for Evacuation Time I Estimates cc w/enclosure:

• I Service List I

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REQUEST FOR EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (AFTER NOTIFICATION)

FOR AREAS NEAR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

Background

I Prior to recent NRC requests that means for prompt notification to the public be installed around each nuclear power plant site, a significant component I of evacuation time estimates was the time required to notify the public of a need for evacuation. Studies of actual evacuations that have taken place generally do not distinguish between the time required for notification, the I time required to implement the evac~?tion*, and the time requ"ired to confirm that an ev~cuation has taken place.- *The estimates for time required for evacuations now requested relate primarily to the time to implement an evacuation as opposed to the time required for notification. These estimates I may be based on previous local experiences (e.g., chemical spills or floods) o~ may be based on studies related to poµulation density, local geography and road capacities. No standard method for making such estimates is identified I for use at this time. The basis for the method chosen should be describe~

in the response. As an independent check on the evac~ation time estimates, agreement with or comments on the time estimates made shoulti be obtained from the principal local officials responsible for carrying out such evacuations. Such agreement should be documented or the areas of disagree-ment indicated in the submittal.

I The format given below is appropriate for reporting to the NRC estimates of the time required to implement evacuation of areas near nuclear power plants.

These estimates, are to be made for the primary purpose of making available, I to those officials who would make evacuation decisions in an emergency situation, knowledge of the time required to complete one of the protective action options (evacuation} available for a particular potentially affected I segment of the population. A second purpose of these estimates is to identify to all concerned those instances in which unusual evacuation constraints exist and that special planning measures should be considered. In some cases of extreme difficulty where a large population is at risk, special I facility modifications may ~lso be considered.

Given a decision to evacuate rather than shelter in an actual event, fewer' I or more sectors or different distances than given in the reporting format might be evacuated should this be the chosen protective action. For example, three 22-1/2° sectors might be initially evacuated in a downwind I direction (the sector containing the plume and an adjacent sector on each side), followed by the evacuation of other sectors as a precautionary measure.

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-Hans, J. M., Jr., and T. C. Sell, 1974 Evacuation Risks - An Evaluation, I U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, iJational Environmental Research Center, Las Vegas, EPA-520/6-74-002.

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I Format for Reporting Information I The areas for which evacuat;on estimates are required must encompass the entire area within a circle of about 10 miles radius, and have outer boundaries corresponding to the plume exposure EPZ. These areas are I as follows:

Distance

• Area I 2 miles two 180° sectors 5 miles four 90° sectors I* about 10 miles four 90° sectors I Estimates for the outer sectors should assu~e that the inner adjacent sectors are being evacuated simultaneously. To the exent practical, the sector boundaries should not divide densely populated areas. Where a direction corresponding to the edges of areas for which estimates have been made is I thought not to be adequately represented by the time estimates for adjacent areas, an additional area should be defined and a separate estimate made for this case. The format for submittal should include both a table and a I figure (overlaid on a map) which each give the information requested in items l and 2 below. Additional mate_rial may be provided in associated text.

I Required Information

1. Two estimates are requested in each of the areas defined in item l for a general evatuation of the population (not including special facilities).

I A best estimate is required and an adverse weather estimate is required for movement of the population.

I 2. The total time required to ~vacuate special facilities (e.g., hospitals) within each area must be specified (best estimate and adverse weather).

3. The time required for confirmation of-evacuation should be indicated.

I Confirmation times may consider special instructions to the public (e.g.,

tying a hankerchief to a door or gate to indicate the occupant has left the premises). . -

I 4. Where plans and prompt notification systems have not been put in place for areas out to about 10 miles, estimates of the times required to evacuate I Until such measures are in place for the plume exp~osure emergency planning zone (EPZ) should also be given. Notification times greater than 15 minutes should be included in the evacuation times and footnoted to indicate the ie notification time.

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5. Whe~e special evacuation problems are identified (e.g., in high I population density areas), specify alternative prctective actions, such as shelterirag, which would reduce exposures and the effectiv~ness of these measures.

I 6. A short background document should be submitted giving the methods used to make the estimates and the assumptions made including the routes and methods of transportation used. This document should I al so note the *agreement or areas of disagreement with pri nci pa 1 local officials regarding these estimates.

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I ,. s l 11. l I or MICHl(,,\N I '°' I l l I A '-'

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION 1, '-' I l l l '< l N , l . ,~ , l ~ N l 1~*

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, , ....rr,j*~,,~Tt,11 . . . . :.J u .. :l t;11, ....

JOltl\I

.i~:.,

P. WOODFORD,

• .L r.,r ,;: 1 ~"\:.1\

LlllH.<: 1 Jll Fl*bruarv l l, l QS()

I Mr. Robert J, Holzheim(!r I HMM A!;sociatL'!., . Incorporated One FtJ rbl's Ru ad Lex Ing ton, Ma i.Hwchu setts 021 7 3 I lh*ar Mr. llolzhcimcr:

/\ppropriatc district traffic a11d safety t*nginL'.l~rs fn 1111 our field 11111,*, .. ;

I haVL' reviewed your prl.!liminary Evacuation Timi.! Estim..it:c reports f11r lli1*

Bi)!, Rock and Palisades Nuclear Power Stations.

I Mr. L::Jwin H. Miller, who reviewed the Palisades report, offered nu suggested chnngl's, so we will approve that report. Mr. Bruce A. C1*11rad~:n11, 1*

I wlin reviewed the Big Roek report, offerl.!d suggestions contalncJ in Lill' attached copy of his memorandum <lated February 6, 1980.

you may wish to communicate directly with him, his off ice address i !; l 00 East Ch.'.lpin Street, Caclill.:ic, Michigan 49601. Hi's off ice telcphn11.*

llllmhl'r ls 616/775-3487.

[n the eVL~nl We wi 11 hold in abeyance our official response on h~ltl1 rc110rls pend i11g yo11r review of, and response to, Mr. ConraJi.;on's report.

I Very truly yours, I

Kobert A. Klgotti I Field Administr;1tion Engineer Traffic :rnd 8;1fl'ly lllvlslu11 I /\ttac:hments I

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I I APPENDIX B I DISTRIBUTION OF VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES I

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I I APPENDIX B I

Figure B-1 Number of Vehicles Associated with Population within 10 Miles of the Palisades Plant (assuming 1 vehicle per dwelling unit),

(breakdown by City and Township is sho'Wil in the 5-10 mile area)

Figure B-2 Number of Vehicles Associated with Mijor I Employe*rs -* Winter (assuming 1 vehic e per employee)

I Figure B-3 Number of Vehicles Associated with Accommoda-t'ions -* Summer (assuming 1 vehicle per accommodation)

I Figure B-4 Number of Vehicles Associated with Recreational Bo*atihg (assuming 1 vehicle per boat slip)

I Figure B-5 Number of Vehicles Associated with Camp~rounds -

• Sui:nitier (assuming 1 vehicle per campsite I Figure B-6 Number of Vehicles Associated with Accommoda-tions - Winter (assuming 1 vehicle per accommodation)

I Table B-1

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Allocation of Dwelling Units in Citi.es and Townships within 10 Miles I

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I FIGURE B-1 NUMBER OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE PALISADES PLANT I**.. (assuming 1 vehicle per dwelling unit),

(with breakdown *in 5~10 mile area by

• City & Township) 1_ _ ._* -

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-1 NNC I

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1* 30'1 E I

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I FIGURE B-2 NUMBER OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR EMPLOYERS I (assuming 1 vehicle/employee)

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FIGURE ff-3 NUMBER OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH ACCOMMODATIONS - SUMMER (assuming 1 vehicle per accommodation)

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.I I FIGURE B-4 NUMBER OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH RECREATIONAL BOATING I * (assuming 1 vehicle per boat slip)

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ie FIGURE B-5 NUMBER OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH CAMPGROUNDS - SUMMER I (assuming 1 vehicle per campsite)

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.r- (SE 1

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19W I

• FIGURE B"-6 I ~

• 1' NUMBER'*

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'or *VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH ACCOMMODATIONS - WINTER (assuming 1 vehicle per acconnnodation)

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I APPENDIX B I TABLE B-1 I

ALLOCATION OF DWELLING UNITS IN CITIES AND TOWNSHIPS WITHIN 10 MILES OF PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT TO SECTORS Dwelling Units (D.U.)

Total within Compass Number of Sectors, and Distance Calculations, I City or.

Township Dwelling Units in Miles from the Palisades Plant Information Source I Covert Township 1089 in the 0-5 mile *area, 1089 D.U. counted from Residential Survey, 1979 by Consumers Power only. co:-

I 1349 (in 1349-1089 = 260 D.U.

entire 260 D.U. in 5-10 Miles I township)

(260 + 4 = 65)

SSW/5-10 = 65 I S/5-10 = 65 SSE/5-10 = 65 SE/5-10 = 65 I Hagar Township 1607 SSW/5-10 = 1607 I Coloma City 679 S/5-10 = 679 Coloma 1714 S/5 1714 I Towns,hip Watervliet 786 SSE/5-10 = 786 (City)

I Watervliet 929 SSE/5-10 = 929 Township I Hartford 1200 SE/5-10 = 300

.Township I Bangor (City) 881 E/5-10 = 881 I Bangor Township 829 SE/5-10 = 207 E/5-10 = 207 ESE/5-10 = 415 I

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I APPENDIX B I TABLE B-1 I

ALLOCATION OF DWELLING UNITS IN CITIES AND TOWNSHIPS WITHIN 10 MILES OF PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT TO SECTORS Total Dwelling Units (D.U.)

within Compass Number of Sectors, and Distance Calculations, City or Dwelling in Miles from the Information I Tmrnship Units Palisades Plant Source Geneva 1077 E/5-10 = 215 (~0%)

I Township ENE/5-10 = 536 (50%)

NE/5-10 = 326 (30%)

I Casco Township 1232 NNE/5 616 (50%)

I Soutzh Haven Township 1461 NNE/0-5 NE/0-5 ENE/0-5

= 910 910 D.U. 's counted from Residential

" Sur\Te)7"',' 1979 by Con-sumers Power Co.

I 1461 -* 910 = 551 D.U. 's

• • in 5-10 miles NE/5-10 = 276 (50%)

NNE/5-10 = 275 (50%)

I South Haven 3046 NNE/5-10 = 2132 (80%)*

NNE/4-5 = 609 (20%)')'(

(City)

I I note: Lots in the city of South Haven within the 5 mile stuC:y area were counted from a survey map in order to derive the 80%/20% estimate.

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I APPENDIX C I

• 1979 SURVEY OF HOUSING UNITS I

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SOUTH HAVE~

I V.~~BUREN STATE MRK I ~"~7:j PALIS40£S PARK SUBDIVISIOll

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,. I I COVERT TO!l'.ISH!P PAP.K 600 MAXIMUM POPULATION I

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MAP/SURVEY COMPLETED 6/12179/RAW

I I On June 11 nnd 12, 1979, 11 He;,iclentia1 Survey wn~~ performed over a fi ve-milc radius fro~ the Palisades nuclear reactor. A residential distribution map I vas then prepared. The method of survey was the up~rnding of n previous sur-vey perforr.:ed in 1975 (Ju.ly) with building permits from the townships of So~ith Haven nnd Cov~rt. The population of South Haven wus estirnnted and added to I the *estimate for the townships. Finally, the industrial workforce was con-sidered. This final consideration leads to a probable over-estimate of the populati0:i.

I Method of calGula.tion for determining the populntion of South Haven within the five-mile ring: --------.------

I A city plat map ves obtained from the city-engineers of South Haven.

Ever'/ plat within the ring ( 5 miles) was assumed to have a house.

The nu.':lber of residences rr.ultiplied by n people per electric meter I fa.ctor y.ie.lds un o.pproxi1:nttc populntion. The peoµle per electric meter factor that *.rns*utiJJzccl \/US the 1978* vnJ.ue of 2.9.

I Since 449 houses were assumed to be within the five-mile ring, this

• leads to assuming 1303 people reside 'Within the city limits of So .1th 1 Haven and five miles from Palisad(:s. The work force information I was ge.thered frorn th~ South Haven Chamber of Cor.unercc and by question-ing industries over the phone. The estimated work force within the 1*

I fjve-~ile ring is 1951.

The total population within the five-mile ring i i 3254.

':l\lo cn.':lpgrounds exir;t vithin the five-mile ring. 'I'he first is Covert Township Park, end tr:c second is VanBuren State Park.

I Covert-To-wnship Park hn.s a maximum population of 600 during the year.

It is estim3.ted by the c1ttcndant there that 200 a.re '..'al k-in and 400 I nre ca..11pero.

VanBw*en State Park, according to the mana~er, he.s o. maxiJ1wn a.ttenllcnce of 2943 people.

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'*I Covert Residences The town of Covert now has 162 residences. Since the 1975 survey, it was learned th~t 6 homes were demolished, bringing the number of homes down to 162 from 168. Using the 2.9 people per meter factor, the town of Covert hus a.pproxim11tely 470 residents.

I The Total Ponulation Within the Five-Mile Ring The peak-peak(!) population estimate for. the 0 to 5 mile area I around the Palisades nuclear reactor is 12,834. The method of calculation is as follows:

I 1975 homes excluding South Haven (City) 1943 Estimated South Haven homes within the ring I 6 homes were demolished in Covert - 6 Subtotal (Homes) 2386 I 1975 July - June. 12, 1979 - Building permits within the area of interest I Total Number of Homes within the five-mile radius as of June 1979 2531 I 2531 Residences x~ PPMF I 7340 People I 7340 Residents

+1951 Work Force I + 600 Covert Park

+2943 VanBuren Park I Total Maximum Possible Population 12,834 I This is a very cpnservative estimate since the workforce living within the five-mile ring is counted twice.

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• I References I

J H Climer - M-930A People per meter (residence) factor (1978) - 2.9 Bob Stickland - 1975 survey data - Kalamazoo - 122C Chamber of Commerce or conversation with Compru\'{ Management I Number of employees:*

E-Jay Thermos 14 I National Motor Castings Bohn Aluminum 375

300 South Haven Rubber Company 300 I National Guard Armory Blue Berry Equipment Controlled Rubber Products 250 (during social events) 25 100 Epworth Mfg 25 I Lovejoy Mfg

~.::.ggett Concrete 100 12 Everett Piano ~Q I Total 1951 I

Ken Schultz, Covert Park Attendant Maximum Park Population 400 camping 20.0 walk-in Lawrence C Kern and Leroy Bross, Park Managers VanBuren State Park I Maximum Population of Park 29113 Edward C Post, South Haven Township Building Inspector I Building Fermi ts I Jerry Sarno, Covert Building Permits To~mship Supervisor I

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I I APPENDIX D

-* CAPACITY CALCULATIONS I

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The Highway Capacity Manual was used to calculate the capa-cities of the evacuation roadways wit~in *the 10-mile radius of the plant. The methodology differs for 2 and 4 lane roadways and for signalized intersections. There are several road seg-ments within the 10-mile radius which have 4 travel lanes.

I Similarly, there are several signalized intersections located within the 10-mile radius. The remaining roadways have 2 travel I lanes. Following are sample calculations for determining roadway capacity.

I A. Two Lane Roadw'!.Y.

I The Manual devotes Chapter 10 to capacity determinations for highways without access control. The formula used to calcu-late the capacity of a 2-lane roadway is: C = 2000 WT I c c where: C = capacity (mixed vehicles per hour, total in I both directious)

Wc = adjustment for lane wldth and lateral clearanc~

at capacity (from Tables)

I Tc= truck factor at capacity (from Tables).

The number 2000 represents the theoretical capacity of a 2-lane I roadway. The lane width adjustment results in a decrease in the capacity for travel lanes less than 12 feet in width .. The adjust-I ment also accounts for the distance to the nearest obstruction f~om the traffic lane. The closer the cbstruction, the lower I the capacity. Where trucks are present, the capacity of 2000 vehicles/hour is reduced by a factor which reflects the percen-I tage of trucks on the roadway and the type of terrain (level1 rolling, or mountainous). Truck percentages were obtained from I Michigan highway data and were only placed on major highways.

Following is a ~ample calculation: C = 2000 Wc Tc .

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I I Given: a) 2 travel lanes I, b) c)

10 foot lanes 6 feet to the nearest obstruction d) 7% trucks I e) level terrain (0-2% slope)

I Using the correct tables, the adjustments to the 2000 value are obtained. For this roadway, W = 0.81 and T = 0.93. Therefore, c c the capacity will be 2000 x (_O. 81) x * (.0. 93) = 1506 vehicles/hour.

I This capacity is for a segment of M-140 from 32nd Ave. to 34th Ave. in Covert Township. This value is for both directions.

I However, in an evacuation, there will be little or no opposing traffic,_ resulting in this value being reasonable for one direc-cio:1.

I B. four Lane Roadway I The capacity determination for four lane roadways is also included in Chapter 10 of the Manual. The method is essentially I the same with adjustments made to reflect a lesser affect of obstructions and trucks on roadway capacity. The formula used to I calculate the capacity.-of a four lane roadway is: C = 2000 N W Tc.

Where: c - capacity (mixed vehicles per hour, total for I one direction)

N = number of lanes (in one direction) w = adjustment for lane width and lateral clear-I ance (from Tables)

Tc= truck factor at capacity (from Tables).

I Following is a sample calculation used to calculate the capacity of the Blue Star Highway from 29th Ave. to 20th Ave. near the I Power. Plant. The link has four 9-foot lanes with 0% trucks and a 2% grade. The nearest obstruction is at the pavement edge.

I Using the correct tables, the adjustments can be made. For this segment, N = 2,

• W = 0. 7 and T = 1. 00 resulting in a calculated c

I capacity of 2800 vehicles/hour for both lanes.

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C. Signaliz~d Intersection I Chapter 6 of the Manual describes the method for determining I the capacity of a roadway at a signalizeu intersection. Data needed include the approach width, signal green time, the signal I cycle, the number of left and right turns, location of the intersection (rural, fringe area, downtown), and the percenta~e of trucks.

I Also inc.lucled in the analysis is the Peak Hour Factor (PHF).

At intersections, the vehicle demand may not exceed the canai;ity I over a one-hour period. However, there are peak volum~s of traf-fic that arrive at the intersection (in a 15-minute period, for I example) which re~~lts in a short-term capacity constraint. The

_-PHF is a ratio of the number of veh.icles counted during the peak I hour and four times the number of vehicles counted during the highest 15 consecutive minutes. Since the capacity of the road-way is to be cletermined, the PHF will bE: close to 1.00. The I Manual suggests* a value bet\veen 0. 85 and 1. 00. A value of 0. 9 5 was used. The next s~-ep in the procedure is to determine the I theoretical intersection approach volume (vehicle per hour of green). This is determined by using the appropriate figures I in the* MahU:al. Needed input to the figures include approach width and the load factor. !he load factor represents the I degree of utilization of an intersection approach roadway during one hour of peak traffic flow. A value of 0.85 is sug-I gested in the Manual. This means that 85% of the green phases are fully utilized (i.e., vehicles always present). This appoach volume is then modified by numbers found in appropriate tables I which reflect the perc~ntage of turns at the intersec~ion, inter-section location and truck percentage.

I Following is a sample calculation for the signalized inter-section at M-140/BL 196 and Aylworth Ave. in South Haven. Concern I is with the capacity on M-140/BL 196. The approach width is 20 feet with 40 seconds of green time and a signal cycle of 70 I

I

I I seconds. It is assumed that there will be no left or right I

turns from M-140/BL 196 onto Aylworth Ave. There are 7% trucks and the intersection is located in a fringe area (less commercial than downtown).. Based on the approach width, the approach volume is 780 vehicles/hour. Adjustments to this value are:

I peak hour factor no left turns

= 0.95

= 1. 2 no right turns = l. 3 I 7% trucks = 0.98 fringe area = . 1. 25 I green time cycle time = 0.57 I Therefore, the capacity of the roadway due to the intersection

-will be 780 x (0.95) x (1.2) ~ (1.3) x (0.98) x (1.25) x (0.57)

I = 810 v/h .

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I APPENDIX E I

I EVACUATION ROUTINGS I

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I S: 31 min.

562 veh.

I \'/: 11 min.

162 veh.

I S: 7 min.

SO veh.

W: 7 min.

I 50 veh.

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S: a I W: 0 I S: 13 mi n. S: 7 min.

178 veh . 76 veh.

I \'/: 6 min.

28 veh .

W: 7 min.

76 veh.

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FIGURE E-1 I EVACUATION ROUTINGS ANALYSIS AREA 1 0-2 MILES I S - Summer W - Winter I

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I S: 28 min.

443 veh .

W* 29 mi n .

I 454 vrh.

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S: 5 min.

I W:

62 veh.

5 min.

S: 18 min. 62 veh.

I S: 26 min.

W:

178 veh.

13 min.

S: 14 181 min.

veh.

265 veh.

L: 24 min.

217 veh *.

76 veh. W: 12 131 min.

veh.

I FIGURE E-2 I EVACUATION ROUTINGS ANALYSIS AREA 2 0-5 MILES I S - Sunmier W - Winter I

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I S: 28 min.

371 veh.

I S: 23 min.

320 veh.

W: 130 min.

1641 veh.

S: 50 min.

975 veh.

I W: 31 min.

598 veh.

I S: 7 min.

67 veh.

I W: 8 min.

79 veh.

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I I S: 26 min.

293 veh .

W: 27 min.

318 veh.

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I S: S min.

46 veh.

I W: S min.

46 veh.

W: 8 min, I 85 veh.

FIGURE E-3 I EVACUATION ROUTINGS ANALYSIS AREA 3 0-5 MILES I S - Summer W - Winter I

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I I S: 39 min.

S93 veh .

W:

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537 veh.

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S37 veh .

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80 I >

I I S: SS min.

828 veh.

I W: 5S min.

828 veh.

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FIGURE E-4 7S min.

108S veh. 120 min. EVACUATION ROUTINGS ANALYSIS AREA 4 0-10 MILES I } W: 124 min.

120 min, 1319 veh. W:

1314 veh.

120 min. ' S - Summer ~i 217S veh. 1314 veh. W - Winter I -\

W: 118 min.

1294 veh .

S: 152 1358 W: 142 min.

veh.

min.

2074 veh.

S: 158 min.

4973 veh.

W: 161 min.

4985 veh.

11 S: 22 min * .

308 veh.

W: 22 min.

308 veh.

~

,_..--------~271---------~ ......-

S: 21 min.

4 326 veh.

-+ W: 19 min.

277 veh.

(f---

1 l

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I S: 56 min.

I 742 veh.

I W: SS min.

I 716 veh.

S: 67 min.

957 veh.

W: 68 min.

983 veh.

FIGURE E-5 1C,S min.

1481 veh.

EVACUATION ROUTINGS ANALYSIS AREA 5 0-10 ~ILES S - Summer H - T..Jinter

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• I I

• I APPENDIX F I EOC Activation Alert List

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I VAN BUTIEl:J EOC ACTIVATIOH '/1L'EHTHJ(j nosnm I

.*-:. Upon reaching RECOH the Chair!DAln Board J,

or a Severe Weather \*:a>*ning, o:i:- on the lloci~'wn. of CoI!DTiissioners,. the EOC Hill be act.iva-t.ecl ll.9 f()'.UoH3!

I .Chl.*t E.Jwcutive will mtify:

I (1) Chier or start Chier or start will notify:

I Public Intonnation Officer Opero.tions Section Chier Corrummications Officer

.I Cont.roller Damage Assees~~nt Group Chief I Reoource Analyst Dar.:age Aasessrr.ent Group Chief u:lll notify: .*

I (ll Damage Aernessment Officer 1*

(2 D:.~8age Analysis Offjcer (3 RAD?.F Officer *

. Operations Section Chief Hill notify:

1-- l~ Fire Operations Officer 2 Police Operations Officer 3 Shelter Operations Officer .

I.

4l5 Public \*lorks/Utilities Officer l*~sdical/Welfare Operations Of fir.er 6 Operational Units Plotter I Controller will notify:

I *Emergency log Plotter I

m Y.essage Log Plotter Plotter (4) Messenger A (5) ).~es senger B (6) ?*!essenzer C (7) Radio Operator:J I

I-J.ttacr.r.ient J (F.OC Act.iv<it.lon Alertinc Ho!;t.or) )).i.rect.io!) t~ r. ont.rol fm:i~:x to Van Buren County ~1nureency Op!a*aUon!> Plc.n

{H} Aoorr IOi~1\L ~H~

/1TTACW.r::i*'.T i:~:*: G I. ;_r,t..;1chi:-:-:mt c; (;:;:*ic; ,\dlv:.Uon Alor~, LL1L) for 'l'TRrniri~

Coun~.y  ::rr. *r1~ency or.~!r"t*.lon:; r1~n J\nr&t!X Ln V"l.n Bur~n

l. ho