ML19343B840

Testimony on Behalf of Util Re Tx Pirg Addl Contention 12 Concerning Interconnection/Purchase of Power.Natl Electric Reliability Council Annual Rept Encl

ML19343B840
Person / Time
Site:	Allens Creek File:Houston Lighting and Power Company icon.png
Issue date:	12/18/1980
From:	Simmons D HOUSTON LIGHTING & POWER CO.
To:
Shared Package
ML19343B832	List: ML19343B831 ML19343B833 ML19343B834 ML19343B835 ML19343B836 ML19343B837 ML19343B838 ML19343B839 ML19343B840 ML19343B841 ML19343B842 ML19343B843 ML19343B844 ML19343B845 ML19343B846 ML19343B847 ML19343B848 ML19343B849
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l DIRECT TESTIMCNE CE l

l D. E. SIMMONS ON 3EHALF Cr HCUSTON LIGHTING & PCWER CCMPANY RE "'EI PIRG ADDITICNAL CONTENTICN 12 31TERCONNECTICN/?UR N E.OF PCWER l

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. DIRECT TESTIMONY OF D. E. SIMMONS RE INTERCONNECTION / PURCHASE OF POWER l

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l Q. Please state your name and position.

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. A. My name is D. E. Simmons. I am the Vice President l of System Engineering and Operations for Houston Lighting &

Power Company (HL&P).

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Q. Please describe the various positions you have 5

held since employed by wrap.

6 l A. I was, first employed in 1946 by RTAP as a drafts-l 7 l man in the Land Rights. Division while attending Rice Uni-l 3 versity. In 1947 I graduated from Rice University with the 9

degree of Bachelor of Science in Electrical. Engineering and 10 then transferred to the Distribution Engineering Division of

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HL&P. In 1951 I transferred to the Electdcal Engineering 12 section with principal, duties in system control applica-13 tions, supervisory and. load frequency control, technica.1 support to the dispatching office, liason. with Power Depart-

~5 ment and outside power plant architect engineer on electrical 2

6 features of power plants under design and construction. In T

7 1959 I was promoted to Assistant Superintendent of the 13 electrical engineering division. of the Engineering Depart-l 19 ment. In 1962 I was promoted to Superintendent of Elec-20 trical Engineering. In 1963 I was transferred to be Super-21 intendent of the Planning Division of the Engineering De-l 22 partment. In 1965 I was transferred to Superintendent of i 23 System Engineering Division of the Engineering Department. .

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l g In 1969 I was promoted to Assistant General Manager of the Engineering Department. In 1970 I was appointed Adminis-2 3

trative Assistant to the Senior Vice President of opera-tions. In.1971 I was appointed. Manager of E'avircnmental 4

,. and Inter-Utility Relations. In.1972. I was elected Vice o

o, President of Environmental and Inter-Utility Affairs. In 1976 I became Vice President of Corporate Planning and I 7

8 of System Engineering and operations in February,1980.

Q. Please describe your responsibilities as vice

' President of System Engineering and operations.

A. I oversee planning, construction. and operation 12 of E&P's transmission; and. distribution. system, and.

13 operation of the generation systen. In so doing it is my 14 responsibility to evaluate the feasibility and desirability 15 of interconnections with other electric utilities. This L6 is an area that I have been involved in for many years 17 before taking over my present responsibilities.

13 Q. Please describe the work you. have done in the 19 area of interconnections.

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A. As Vice President of Inter-Utility Affairs I had the primary responsibility of joint planning with other 22 electric utilities. I have been dealing with the other 23 electric systems on a continuous basis for ten to fifteen l

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years, both in the context of bilateral negotiations

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and joint planning efforts. In regard.to the latter 2

point I have represented HL&P for many years in the two-3 statewide planning organizations, the Texas Interconnected 4

Systems (TIS) and. the Electrici Reliability Council of 5 Texas (ERCOT), L have also. served, as the ERCOT' representa-6 tive on the National Electric Reliability Council -

7 Technical Advisory Committee. While serving in each of 8 these various capacities I have been heavily involved in 9 the planmng and.. operation of interconnected operations 10 of electric system. -

11 Q. While serving as Vice President of Corporate 12 Planmng were you. involved ih the process of evaluating 13 interconnected. operations?

14 A. I was very much- involved. in evaluating the 13 impacts of interconnected. operation on our corporate 6

pl"""4ng process. It became my responsibility during 17 that time to negotiate with other electric utilities for g the purchase of capacity to cover the expected shortage yg in reserves during the 1980's. I have continued with this responsibility in my present capacity. Accordingly, 20 it is my responsibility to maintain current knowledge of the capacity which may be available for sale to wrap frcm 22 -

any and all neighboring electric systems.

23 Q. Have you had any involvement in evaluating the 24 feasibility of interconnecting with utilities outside Texas?

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1 A. Yes. As the Board and the parties may know, 2

HL&P has. been engaged in litigation for the past four 3

years concerning the question of whether the electric 4

utility systems operating in the Electric Reliability 5

council of Texas (ERCOT) should. he interconnected with.

6 the electric utility systems operating in the Southwest 7 Power Pool (SWPP). I have been the HL&F officer in 8 c%2rge of this litigation since its inception. I testified.

9 as an expert witness on. this question in the case of 10 West Texas Utilities company, et al. v. Texas Electric 11 Service comoany, et al., 470 F. Supp. 789 (1979), and 12 other related litigation. referenced. izr the Court's decision.

13 Because of this litigatiozr I am: thoroughly f==i1 +ar with.

14 all of the studies that examine the feasibilitT and l'5 desirability of interconnecting ERCOT and SWPF.

3:2 Q. Is EL&P a member of ERCOT7 Yes 17 A. It is the planning organization made up yg of all the electric systems operating solely withi.n the g State of Texas.

Q. What area is covered by the SkTP?

A. That area includes the electric utilities in 21 l the states surrounding Texas to the north and east.

Q. Why has the exam, nation of interconnections 23 with neighboring s'tates focused only on the SWPP.

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A. The states to the west of Texas are very sparsely 1

populated so there is no' concentration of power plants 2

and power lines along the western border of Texas which 3

could be interconnected. on.an economic basis.

4 Q. In its Contention No. 12 TexPirg alleges that 5

EL&P could obviate the need for Allens Creek. if it would 6 '

interconnect with utdities outside the State of Texas, 7

because the interconnections would p*mit a reduction in a

reserve margins. Is TexPirg's allegation correct?

9 A. No. The studies which have been done on this 10 question demonstrate that reserve margins in ERCOT cannot 11 be reduced through. interconnections with SWPF, which as I 12 stated. earlier has beezr the area of focus in. the studies i

l dcne on. th7 a subject. The basic reason that ERCOT would U no'~ redace reserves in reliance upon interconnections 15 with SWPP is that the SWPF has had a chronic problem of 16 reserve shortages. As an example, the following report 17 on SWPP reserves is provided.in the National Electric 13 Reliability Council's 1975 Annual. Report [ App. Exh.

19 (DES 1)]:

20 "The impact of presently planned const=1ction cutbacks will take effect in 1979 and later years.

21 For example, the Middle South System announced in mid-year 1975, cancellation of two nuclear fueled 22 units and delay' of a third nuclear unit plus two coal fired units.

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...This represents a 25% reduction of reserves 24 considered desirable and proven by experience to be

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adequate. This very significant reduction in reserves l

l can have a decidedly adverse affect on bulk power f

2 system reliability in this area. Should presently

halted construction not be resumed according to

' 3 plan, there will be a further substantial decrease in reserves already considered too low and, by 1979, 4 reserves. will be less than one-third of those formerly planned and considered adequate."

s The situation in the SWPP has not improved materially in ,

l the last five years. The SWEP section of the National l 7 l r

Electric Reliability Council's 1979 Annual Report under-3 scores the fact that the electric systems iv. SWPP must l

proceed with the, timelT construction of new nuclear and l 10 l

coal plants if ther are to meet their expected load -

t 11 requirements:

12.

"At present, [the Southwest Power Pool] S?? is 13 highlT dependent on. natural gas. and. oil as a. boiler fuel,. which; supplies almost 70% of the electric energ7 requirements of the region. The nuclear and 14 coal-fired generating capacity addition program for the next ten years is an attempt by SEP systems tio t5 reduce their relianca on natural gas and oil.

7 16 "To meet the present forecasted load demands in SPP, it is imperative that the presently planned 17 coal-fired and nuclear generating unit construction However, delays are programs continue on schedule.

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- being experienced with the licensing of these units.

The lack of timely rate relief will also affect the 19 ability of the SPP systems to maintain this program i

on schedule. Should delays continue to occur, 20 future power supply within the SPP region will become inadequate.

21 "The current maze of uncertainty which has been 22 injected into the electric utility industry by l outside forces causes concern on the part of the 23 member systems of SPP. The key factor in future reliability and adequacy in SPP lies in completion 24 of the current generating capacity plans in a timely (See App. Exh.

manner without unnecessary delays."

(DES 2)] .

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Y In evaluating the potential for interconnecting with the SWPP we rely on these reports because they constitute the 2

official reports of the companies.in SWPP on the status 3

of their reserves. I have concluded. front these reports 4

and, many other sources of data, that the SWPP companies 5

have reserve shortages so we could not reduce our own 6

reserve margins in reliance upon interconnections with 7

them.

8 Q. Would. it be feasible for EAP to forego construc-9 tion of Allens Creejc in reliance upon. purchases of capacity

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in the SWPP?

11 A. No. We would. be derelict in. foregoing construc-

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tiott of our owrr coa.L anct nuclear plants in. reliance upon.

Il the remote possibility that there might be sufficient T

4 excess reserves in SWPE for the next fortT years to U replace the Allens Creelc project. They do not have that l 16 kind. of excess capacity now and there is no reason to 17 believe they will have it forty years from now.

18 q. Where you have found other electric utilities l

19 which have excess reserves are they interested. in selling 20 capacity in their base load coal and nuclear plants?

21 A. Generally, those utilities in the southwestern 22 U.S. which have excess reserves want to sell only those 23 reserves that they generate on higher priced gas or oil; j 24 they save the lower cost coal and nuclear capacity for

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their own system needs. Thus, where such reserves are 1

available they are not economically competitive with -

2 power produced by Allens Creek (see Testimony of Dr. Perl) .

3 Moreover, by deferring Allens Creek we would. cause an 4

increase in oil and gas consumption on our system. and 5

neighboring systems. It would be contrary to national 6

policy, as established in the Powerplant and. Industrial 7

Fuel Use Act,. tot encourage the increased consumption of S

oil and gas by deferring construction of new nuclear 9

plants. All of the companies in ERCOT and SWPP are under

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a legal obligation under the Fuel Use Act to reduce our reliance on oil and gas.

9 2.

Q Are you, aware of any studies that address the

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~J question of reducing reserves in reliance upon. inter-

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connections?

U A. In 1978 the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 16 (FERC) studied. the question of interconnecting the SWPP 17 and ERCOT and concluded that "the value of intercon-13 nection facilities [between ERCOT and SWPP] as a means 19 for reducing reserve requirements or improving reliability 20 is negligible." (See Staff Report on Electric Reliability 21 Council of Texas, Interconnection and Reliability Evalua-22 tion, March 1978). Their focus in this study was on 23 ERCOT. Subsequently the FERC also examined the potential 24 for reducing reserves in SWPP through interconnections t

y with ERCOT and concluded that SWPP would not benefit from 2 an interconnection with ERCOT. (See Staff Report on y Southwest Power Pool Reliability Assessment, March 1979).

4 Both of these studies demonstrate that TexPirg is wrong l _ in. alle~ging that there can be a. reduction in reserve a

margins if the SWPP and ERCOT are interconnected.

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Q. Have you examined the most recently reported reserve margins for the SWPP to determine whether there is a substantial amounr of excess capacity in the SWPP?

A. Yes. I have examined the SWPP's Order 411 10 Report to the Department of Energy, filed on April 1, 1980. That report shows that for the next 10 years the SWPP wiil have reserves of about 20% in 1980 dropping to.

13 16% by 1989. These reserve margins are dependent upon 14 the timely completion of plants now in construction, 15 whicb. casts some doubt on the validity of these projections.

16 i Q. What conclusions do you draw from those reserve 17 margins?

13 A. I would conclude that the SWPP has no excess 19 reserves to export to other regions. They need all their 20 reserves themselves to operate reliably when operating 21 with the large coal and nuclear plants now being added in 22 the SWPP. In my opinion, they will actually have less 23 than adequate reserves in the next 10 years and will

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obviously not be in position to export the substantial

i t amount of capacity which would be required to replace 2 ACNGS Unit No. 1.

Q. na 7, TexPiry has asserted that.there is 3

,- some type of nationwide conservation program at work which has resu.lted. in. nationwide excess of generating o,

capacity. Is TexPirg correct?

_ A. S.is. is a. totally unsubstantiated claim and is, I

in. fact, untrue. "he National Electric Reliability g Conne-4 i (NERC), whictr has the responsibility for reviewing

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de adequacy and. *T 4 abi ' 4 tr of bulk electric power 1

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supply for the entire United States, has provided a very l

gloomy forecast of the future adequacT of elecdC power' i

supply:

""".e overriding concerns of NERC at dis time, 14 however, are the discernible and disturbing trends which. point ts a fu '. ire bulk (electric) power supply L5 system which. will. be unable to maintain. an adequate and reliable electric power supply for -J:e United 15 Sta as....

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l 13 "NERC believes that de c = rent peak electric load growd projections for the next decade assume is an increasing impact of load conservation, which reflects the industry's recent peak load experience i 20 and de growing awareness and concern on. the part of d e public for d e need for conservation. Furthermore, 2; we believe that conservation will be an i=portant l factor in mi nimiring the need for additional power l 22 supply fac4'd~4as. However, even with this anticipated conservation effort, additional generating capacity 23 must be installed - from 25,000 to 30,000 MW per year over the next decade -- if we are to maintain a l 24 reliable and adequate bulk power supply sysam. '

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"There are many impediments to the construction program for new coal-fired and nuclear generating  !

units, and it is urgent that these impediments be 2 removed to minim % the impact of what now appears to be an inevitable future shortfall in electric 3 generating capacity with its attendant negative impact on the well-being of the United States and 4 Canada. [See App. Exh. (DES 2), at pp . 3-4 ] .

5 In short, the NERC. report indicates that whatever excess f

o reserves savings may have resulted from conservation, it 7 is not enough to prevent the severe crisis that we will 3 face on a. nationwide basis if we do not accelerate construc-9 tion. of new coal. and. nuclear plants.

10 Q. Retwming- for a. moment to the litigation you.

11 mentioned earlier, have you. now reached a. settlement 12 which will result in interconnections between ERCOT and 13 SWPP?

14 A. Yes, we have.

15 q. Would you. explain the basis for the settlement?-

16 A. The settlement will permit the Central and 17 Southwest Corporation, our main protagonist in that 18 litigation, to directly interconnect its.four operating 19 companies by the use of two direct current (DC) interconnec-20 tions, having a total capacity of 700 MW. I would note 21 that our agreement to these- interconnections was not .

22 based upon a demonstration that the interconnections were 23 economically desirable. They are being constructed by i

24 CSW to integrate its holding company operations. Moreover, l l

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l 1 the interconnections are not being built so that CSW can f req building new plants. They are being built with 2

the intention of giving CSW the ability to construct new f 3 4

nuclear and. coal plants to be jointly owned by the four CSW operating companies.

5

. We have no objection to the DC interconnections, o

., as compared to the originally proposed AC interconnections, i because they will. have no adverse economic or electrical.

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impact on our system. Unlike the situation with AC 9

interconnections, the flows over the DC lines can be l 10 ,

l controlled by CSW to flow through the CSW system on a l 11 l

predeternined; basis. We do not have to add internal

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tr=misaiort additions in order ta accommodate the scheduled.

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! and unscheduled flows that were associated with CSW's AC l 14 l interconnection proposal. The result is that, in addition.

15 to preserving our present degrae of reliability, the DC L5 interconnections are much cheaper for us than the AC L7 -

interconnections.

l 13 Q. Does arAP have a right to use any of the capacity 19 in the DC interconnections? ,

20 A. As part of the settlement we have agreed to pay v

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for 200 MW of the 700 MW of capacity that is being installed.

22 In return, we will have the right to use the 200 MW of

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capacity. We have no specific plan at this time for the 24 use of the capacity. However, our maximum use of the l

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line will be limited to 200 MW, so there is.no way to obtain enough capacity over the line to replace Allens Creek. even assuming that we could purchase 1200 MW capacity in the SWPF, which we cannot. In direct response to TexPirg's contention e I would point out. that nona of the 5

electric systems in ERCOT or SWPP are planning to reduce 6

reserves in reliance upon. the DC interconnections, nor is 7

any electric systent in. ERCOT or SWPP planning to forego a

construction of new power plants in. reliance upon the 9

interconnections.

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Q. Does this complete your testimony?

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A. Yes.

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' N A'IlO [CA L 1975 AXNUAL REPORT fRLEOTRI3 3 LI AB [LI5Y

"'th reports r

• itS r*8i" C 3 Li N o[e councils and NAPSIC o

l 1

e April 1976 .

O RESEARCH PARK,TERHUNE ROAD, PRINCETON, N.J. 08540 (609) 924-6050

., 9 I, Foreword The Nananal Electric Reliability Council (NERC). . Board of Trustees meetings are attended by observers formed voluntanly by the electne utility industry in designated by the Chainnan of the 1968. directs its effons to augment the reliability and Federal Power Commission (US) and of the National ad:quacy of bulk power supply of the electne utility Energy Board (Canada).

syst msin North Amenca. NERC consists of nine This seventh Annual Report reviews the highlights of regional reliability councils whose memberships the ac:ivities of NERC dunng the past year. It also compnse essentially all of the elecmc power systems in presents repons from each of the nine regional th2 United States and the Canadian systemsin.the reliability councils which comment on the progress and provinces of Ontario. Bnnsh Columbia. Manitoba. and problems relating to the reliability and adequacy of N;w Brunswick. see map. bulk power supply systems in Nenh Amenca. This The goveming body of NERC. the Board of year's NERC repen also' includes a summary of the Trustres. censists of two representatives of each func:fons and acevities of the Nenh Amencan Power regiona! council plus such additional members as Systems interconnection Committee (NAPSIC), an nic:ssary to assure at least two representanves from organization responsible for coordinating operating each segment of the industry: i.e.. Invester-owned, matters among the interconnected systems of No:th Federal. State / Municipal. Rural ElectricCooperative. Amenca.

O l

N ER C National Electric Reliability Council 4 .

NAPSIC North American Power Systems Interconnection Committee to l Regional Councils:

ECAR East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement 12 I i

ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas 14 MAAC Mid-Atlantic Area Council 17 MAIN Mid-America Interpool Network 19 l

MARCA Mid-Continent Area Reliability Coordination Agreement 22 NPCC Northeast Power Coordinating Council 25 SERC Southeastem Electric Reliability Council 27 IsPP Southwest Power Pool 30 WSCC Westem Systems Coordinating Council - 34

Letter From The Chairman 7

NATIONAL ELECT RIC R E.LI ACILITY b CGUNCll i O In retrospect, the problems faced by the National Electric Reliability Council (NERC) in the first years af i At that time, NERC's objective was to augment the [ problems. reliability of the transmission network, which meant taking d ad the necessary steps to avoid any future blackouts or wi espre power outages such as cecurred in 1965 and 1967. j More recently, the emphasis has shif ced to NERC's  ;. I other objective, to augment the adequacy of bulk power supply.  ! And by this, we mean providing suf ficient generating capacity f all customers, to meet the electric peak load requirements. o ts.

• f plus being able to supply all their electric energy requiremen This is by f ar the more difficult assignment.

j the uncertainty of future I Consider such facects as: electric load growth; lead ti=es of as =uch as 12 years toenviron= ental res i construct a nuclear plant; l and operating povar facilities; the difficulties in assuring

• i dependable fuel supplies; and the most recent problem ,

due to regulatory lag, and inadequate. earnings.

                                            'Thile NERC and its regional reliability councils are exerting every effore Jo assure a reliable and adequate supply of electricity for the future, we continue to urge                              .
                  ,             labor, and the utility industry to provide such a supolv                                i because we believe this is vital to the healthy     d d ofgrowth living of the economy of North America and a higher stan ar
                    ,            for its people.                                                                          .

j

                                                               >               r l

i 1'e - bbb' ~.

                                                                  *tilliam McCollam, Jr.

i I J Chairman

                                   .                                                                    S

eq

• 9 P' -

p NATIONAL ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL 1:2 He National Electic Reliability Council (NERC) NERC Reports Eyavs> Concern fur ti e Futme continued in 1975 to devote its efforts and the In itsannual appraisal of the bulk power systems expertise of its participants to the fulfillment of its. Irr North America, however, NERC again expressed. mission, ". . . further to augment the reliability and serious concern for the future adequacy of elecnic ad:quacy of the bulk powersupply of the eleenic power supply. The report emphasizes that essential utility systems in North Amenca." Through the ingredients of a reliable and adequate eleceic bulk actvities of NERC and its nine regional reliability power supply are: councils the planning for the future generation and transmission facilities is being coordinated to assure " Load forecasts made with reasonable that as these facilities in the bulk powersystems are confidence; expanded they are always compatible and that the . Timely installation of new generating plants terconnected transmissiert networks cari be A properly coordinated transmission network, f,.,perated reliably underboth normal and and em:.rgency conditions. Dependable supplies of primary energy The record of the past yearattests to the sources. successful operation of the network, even under it also stated that majorproblem areas which vanous seesses caused by violentweather thwart the industy in providing these ingredients at conditions, equipment failures, and several acts of this time are: sabotage. Underlong-established policy of the ', elecmc utility industry. large amounts of emergency ek of nat,onal energy objectives; power are exchanged among systems to provide b""Ci3I restraints and timely rate relief; mutual assistance during times of temporary Cunent h. censing and siting procedures; generating capacity shortages and other Conflicting governmental resnictions; and emergencies: but in the past year, there have been Uncertainty of fuel and energy sources. increasing amounts 'f energy transferred between Tne study concluded that there is a threat to an systems to reduce t. ; use of high-cost fuels when adequate power supply in some areas of the United lower-cost fuels were available. States as early as 1978 because of the possibility in the yearof 1975, the electric energy and peak that the economic recovery which appears to be load requirements increased only modestly, underway will result in electric power requirements resulting in increased generation reserves due to a higher than presently forecast. Tnis would be i substannal amount of new generating capacity accentuated by substituton of electicity by being completed. A spot survey conducted by customers as other forms of energy become less NERC revealed that the small load growth was available. Furthermore, if delays occurin tmbutable primarily to the decline in industrial completing new generating units, reserve capacity

     .ctivity and hence a decrease in the electical usage     will decline further. Compounding these concems of that segment, even though in many systems              is the threat of a shortage of primary fuels to residential and commericalloads were near their           produce the electic energy requirements, or the normal growth trends.                                     prohibition of their use.

L . - l _& s meet castomer loads dunng this period. The G ..<. ..n.... H n, m, u ilt in inw projectons show a continual decline in the use of l Following the substantial numberof- gas for boilerfuel, an increase in oil requirements I postponements and cancellations of generating until about 1983 followed by a dedining trend, and units in 1974 and continuing into 1975, NERC a substantialincrease in power generated by analyzed the impact on the reliability and adequacy nudear and coal-fired units. Currently, however, of the electne power supply in the United States efforts to increase the use of coal and nudear fuel dunng the next ten years. In the aggregate, the have been hampered in many areas by challenges changes in scheduled operational dates will result in to the constructon of these units and by opposition a reducten of over 120.000 megawattsless to the mining and burning of acceptable coal. NERC is presently analy::mg the constraints on generating capacity installed by 1984. While these Y d:cisions were based to some degree on estimates availability of both fossil and nudear fuel for electic of a lower growth of electicity demand. they were generation forthe period,1975-1984. to a greater degree the result of theinability of systems to finance their construction. If other delays Interregional Studies Expanded by NERC which have plagued the indusuy for several years A NERC Task Force has developed a data base continue. the combined effect of these actons will and completed computer studies of the 1978 shrink the reserve generating capacity to a point where an adequate power supply will be interconnected transmission networkin the seven regions of NERC to evaluate its capability to threatened. transfer emergency powerinterregionally and 1 ne cut back .in construction of new generating l transregionally. Studies were also made to ' units, which are mostly base load facilities, als determine what amounts of import power the impacts the use of fuel because it will shift the network could support to each region. production to older and generally less emcient Having developed the capability te make facilities. The report urged that every effort be comprehensive studies of the overall bulk power exened to reverse this tend. system in these regions NERC responded in mid 1975 to a request from the Federal Energy i Ten Year Fuel Requirements are Projected Administration and Federal Power Commission to Because of theimportance of a dependable examine the capability of the electnc utility systems to transfer electnc energy from coal-fired supply of fuels for the utlity industry. NERC, ! through its regional councils, condue:ed its third generation to replace energy generated from oil-survey of annual fuel requirements for the ten-year and gas-fired units during the winter period l 1975-76, when it was anticipated that there would l O period,1975-1984, in July 1975. This survey reflected revisions in load forecasts, the effect of be a shonage of these latter fuel supplies. This postponements and ..ancellations of generating analysis required the consideration of such factors l units, and the latest estimates of the quantities of as availability of capacity to provide the extra _ adkcdsd namism which willbe required to generation and the technical and operating

, !imit:tions of systems to receive such power, as well of NERC, until his retirement, and then by Mr. W. as the capability of the transmission network. J. Matthews, who succeeded him as president in Similar studies of a similar nature are underway to Apn],1975. ex mine the bulk powersupply system of 1980. Representadves of NERC also assisted other

     @                                                                  governmental and indus=y organizations from time NERC Makes Other Contributions                                       to time by providing data and information relating to the bulk power system in North America. In R:presentatives of NERC's Interregional Review addition, officers of NERC have made Subcommittee and of the regional reliability presentations at national and regional conferences councils devoted a considerable amount of effort to studies of Nuclear Energy Centers, in cooperation                     during the year. NERC has presented testimory to l with ths Office of Special Studies, Nuclear                           Congressional Committees on legislation affecting

' energy matters, espec: ally as they affec:the elec ic Regulatory Comrnission. NERC's analytical work utilityindustry. was direc:ed primanly to the reliability aspec:s of tha bulk power system and :he impact such centers As of May 1,1975, NERC was incorporated as a not-for-prost corporation under the New Jersey would have on the cansmission network. Several statutes. conc:ptual transmission schemes were also On the following pages, each of the regional dev: loped for various types of geographical reliability councils has reported to the NERC Board locations. of Trustees on their activities and their progress and NERC continued to be represented on the problems relating to reliability and adequacy of the El:ccic Utility Advisory Committee to the Federal bulk power systems in their regions and on oth.er En:rgy Adminiscation by Mr. F. L Goss, president matte:s ofinterest. [ - . . - - USTING OF RECENT NERC REPORTS - l

                                                                                                                                ..g Rewew of OwraH Re5 ability and Adequacy of the North        Es: mated %ssd Fuel hquirements. Pnweed Generacng Amencan Bulk Power Systems                                  Capacty and Decmc Energy Producten for the Secne Fourth Annual Rewew (October 1974)                          Utility industry (Conoguous U.S.) 1975 1984, Wuly 1975)

Rfth Annual hwew Quiy 1975)  % Esemated Fossd Fuel Requirements for the Cecne Utinty A Current View of the Impac of Postoonements and Can- Industry of the Uruted States 1974-1983. Wuly 1974) ceDanons on Future Decne Bulk Power Supply in the-Uruted States. (March 1975) Nuclear Energy Centers - An Assessment of Impact on Reliabaty of Eleenc Power Supply (Aptd 1975) A Study of Interregional Energy Transfers 1975-76 Winter. (Ocooer1975) An assessment of the Proposed Nanonal Power Gnd Ac, Wuly 1973) Multregional Transmission Study of Power Transfer Capabilices of the 1978 Bulk Power Inter.onneced Net. A Reuew and Update of the National Becnc bliability workin NERC. (Ocober 1974) Counci's Report

                                                                        " Assessment of the State-of. Technology of Air Polluton Multiregional Transmission Study of Power Transfer         Control Equipment and of the Impact of Cean Air Regula.

Capabates of the 1973 Bu!k Power Interconneced Net. nons of the Adequacy of Decnc Poswr Supply of North work in NERC,(Decamber 1973) Amancan Bulk Pouer Systems," (Nowmber 1974) Y* 'Potental Savings of Residual 00 in PAD.1 by Transmissen Comments on Ef0uent Limitations Guidelines and Stan-of Energy From kmore Coal.Rred Genernoon, Manuary dards Steam Dectne Power Generaeng Point Source f 23,1974) Category, Wune 1974) . O _'h_..

                                                                                                                                   ~
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l N ATID M A L Executw.e Committee EL ECTC(C pne

w. McCocam. Jr., C.wmmrt W. J. KeDey. Vice Chairman m.a. ..g,,,d,nt. n,m t1.cm Co.,,,,,,

gA3 as Chanman of NERC from Anni 16.1975 unts his

             .0   wIM p             .,t1       D. P. Hodel. Secretanj. Treasurer unemeiy death on September 8.1975.                    ]

I p r. r r s ti J. L Wilkins, Past Chairman l C (3 V I 4 u L L. F. J. Readenti. Member at Large i W. J. Matthews, President "D. C Lutken, President t W. D. Brown, Assistant Secreta:y- t reasurer Micsissippi Powerand Ught Co. t and Administranve Manager J. E Lyon. SeniorVice President Iowa Powerand Ught Co BW.F.!' t C TR 8..ST El. 5 W. McConam, Jr., President and Chief Execunve D. W. Ang!and. Execunve Vice President New Orleans Public Service Northem States PowerCo g, p Madgett GeneralManager

    'T. G. Ayers. Chairman and President                                      Dainjiand PowerCooperanve Commonwealth Edison Co
                                                                         .W. B. McGuire. Past Chairman NERC T. J. Brosnan. Vice President                                           Charione, Nenh Carolina Niagara Mohawk Power Corp R O. Newman. President W. D. Brown. Admints ranve Manager                                      Public Ser. ice Co. of Oklahoma Nanonal Elecme Reliability Counc!

S G. Schaffer. President J. J. Bugas. General Manager Duquesne Ught Co Colorado.Ute Seeme Assocacorr. Inc R. H. Sims. Vice President. Operations f' 4. L Collins. Manager. Interconnecten Affairs General Public Utlities Service Corp P;nnsylvania Powerand ught Co H. A. Smith. Vice President of Engneenng and Operations W. H. Corkran. Jr.. General Managerof Utilites Ontano Hydro Easton Unlites Commission

                                                                        .E. C. Spethmann. Vice President E. K. Diue. Execunve Vice President Northem States Power Co Union Elecme Co J. M. Farley. President

• H. L Spurlock. Manager Alabama Power Co East Kentucky Rural Seeme Cooperaeve Corp l F. J. Readen:r. Vice President, Engneenng Research and L S. Tumer. Jr., President Development Dallas Powerand ught Co Atlanne City Elecmc Co R R Walker. Vice President l l 'F. L Goss. President NERC Public Service Co. of Colorado l l

Los Angeles. Califomia J. E Watson. Manager of Power 1 R W. Hardy. Chairman and Chief Execunve Tennessee Valley Authonty Central Power and Ught Co A. H. Hines. Jr., President J. L Wilkins. Group Manager rienda Power Corp Omaha Public Power Dismet D. P. Hodel. Administrator B. J. Yeager. President l Bonneville Power Administraten Cincinnati Gas and Elecme Co ,

  "R A. Hofacker. Vice President                                        ..' CT,,, _ ,, _,

Montana Power Co i

     *B. B. Hulsey, Jr., President and Chief Executve iexas Sectnc Service Co                                        Observers
   - W. J. KeDey. President                                               T. A. Phillips. Chief. Sureau of Power Blinois Power Co                                                    Federal Power Commission P. C. King. Administrator                                           E. S. Bell. Director. Sectrical Engneering Branch

[ Southwestem Power Administration Natonal Energy Board

                                                                                ...                  .~ ..   ..     .

l l

                                                                                                                           \

l Technical 5dvisory Committee (TAC) 1 1 1 l K. E. Walters, Chairman TAC E. E MitcheU, Jr., Vice President, Sectncal Engmeering ,l l Manager, SectricalOperations PotomacSee:ricPoweCo  ! Wisconsin See:ric PoweCo H. H.Mochorr, Jr., Chairman NAPSIC l l T. J. Nagel. Vice Chairman TAC Senior Execunve Vice Presdent. System Planning New England PoweExchange- W 1L RPeny, Chid Planning Engineer Amencan Sec:ricPowerServiceCorir Pac:ScGasandSec:ncCo G. H. Applegren. System Planning Manager *J. B. Prince, Director, Corporate Planning Commonwealth Edison Co Wisconsin sec:ricPoweCo l J. W. Boston, Director of Power Operatans **J. J. Seymour, System Operation Superintendent Power Authenty of the State of New York PublicService Co of New Meoco l 'J. E Brabston, Jr., Past Chairman NAPSIC 'O. L Shoner: Manager, System Engmening 1 Middle South Services Inc Delmarva Powerand ughtCo W. M. Brewer, Vice President l D. E Simmons, Vice President Middle South Services Inc Houston Lighting and Powe Co M. E. Fate. Jr., Vice President, Power *R. H. Sims. Vice President. Operations Public Service Co of Oklahoma General Public Utilities Service Corp J. P. Fenstermaker. Senior Vice President. Operatiens. G. L Smith, Vice President Columbus and Southedhio SeemeCo Southem Services Inc l

 *!piijr: stone. Vice Presdent                             eE E Timme. Direc:or i shio Edison Co                                              Intercompany Pool W. E. Govro. Chief System Supervisor                      J. E Vogr.Jr. VicePresident, Engineermg l      Illinois Power Co                                         Middle South Servicar Inc J. R. Gummersall. Vice President                          J. K. Wiley, Vice President. Engmeenng Long Island LighnngCo                                     Delmarva Power and Light Co M. F. Hsbb Jr., Vice President Flonda Powe Corp                                   Ex-Officio Members of TAC J. A. Hutchison Vice President                            F. W/ Beyer, Chairman j       WcstTexas Utilities                                      Multiregional Transmission Task Force J. J. Juba. Power System Operations Officer               G. P. Green U. S. Bureau of Reclamation                              Clean Air /Wateruaison E F. Kapneiian. Past Chairman NAPSIC                     C. L Rudasill, Chairman Pacific Gas and Elec=c Co                               ' Energy Transfer Task Force
 *D. V. Menscer, Vice President                            G. Williams, Jr., Chairman i

i Carolina Power and Light Co Interregional. Grid Subcommittee R. B. Miller, Manager of Engineenns C. E Winn, Chairman low 2. Illinois Gas and Becnic Co Interregional Review Subcommittee

• term comewied

                                                        " Soerd of Trusees memter as adJanuary 1976

l l

                                                                                                                                                )

TAC Subcommittees and Task Forces t ~ .., . .. ; Reuev i-uhe. msni+t F.nreav Teanefer Stude as Vorce- Interregional Grid Subcommettre C E Winn. Chaeman C L RudaaR(Chatrman) G. Weems.Jr. (Charman) Director. Transnesson Planrang anct VirgirWa Secmc and PowerCo Tenn-a= Vasey Atahonty Engneens' F. G. A Jdnson T.1 Brosnan Tenn - a= aney Authonty Comrnonweakh E.ison Co. NiagaraMohawk PcmmrCorp

     'T A Naget. Past C5atrman                       A.1 Barnett                                          E K. Ose-Sernor Ne,=ve (ca Prendent. Syment              MWdk South hInc                                     UrsarihG P.anrang Amencan Becmc PwSenace Corp                 D. W. Bowert                                         EC Gass
                                                             -Coremnt Area Rehabety Coordnanen               Northem States Power Co
     .R R Bauad Neon Manager P.annmg                         w Omaha Puouc Power Dutnet                                                                         K R Hunt ugene     : ndEsctneBoard
     *1 A Casazza, % Prendent.Planrung and                 O j "*" 'i)dE W                                I A Nagel Researen Puouc Service Eheme and Gas Co               E 1 Daly                                               Amencan Decme PenuerService Corp
                                  . Symem Engmeanng.
                                                              "# 3*** U*'** ""d O**

T. L Hatcher. Taas Power and nt Co R E Fate. Jr. D. Hawthem. Manager of Energy Supply acSome Co of O'dahonw MnWnnaHunenMe 9MA lowa Pubuc Service Co J.C Fuhrmanrr Force Mid.AmencalaterpoolNetwrk F. W. 3ever(Chaimiani G. C Loehr. Eng'.neenng Manager Nortneast Power Coordnaeng Counc! D. Hawthem Duke Power Co he Some Co R R BaBard R R Mauszewski. Asastant Head. Bulk Power Sucoly Planning Divison

                                         ~

1 E. Hurley .. Omaha Pubue Pw h Amencan Eecmc Power Service Com New England Power Poci R W. Colbom A. J. Mary. Asastant to Sernor Vice Prenderr AEegneny PowerSystem. Inc-O. A. 'm Gulf States Luces Co East Central Area Renabdify Coordnanen .W. H. Dunbar Agreement MM.ArnancainterpooiNeturk R E. P!arce. SemorStaff Engmeer

#V NaconalSecmeRehabdiryCounct                         G C Loehr                                           R R Hartley 1                                                         Nortneast PowerCoordnaang Councd                    Anzona Pubhc Service Co 1 B Pm Assaant to Vice Prendent.

Adnunistracon *W. W. Morgan T. R Hoke Wisconsm Eecnc PowerCs Caronna Power and ught Co. Oklanoma Gasand SecmeCs J. R Templeton. Manager. Energy Systems and W. F Reinke G C Loehr Interconneccons Duke Power Co Nortnean Power Coordnaang Counci

                   ***                                                                                                                          i 1 R Tiemarm                                          H E. Pierce K 1 Twohig. Mar.ager. Research and                Balomore Gas and Eecme Co                            Nanonal Becme Rehabsty Couned ht$Py" A. K Waknnar Amencan Deeme Power Service Corp E. F. Reis Pennsvivarna Powerand Ught Co I

T. R Woodward. Asastant Manager. System Cfen"s"see vaney Authomy i""- ~ ~ - M'm",";'nne mn  ! R H Sans aChairmann General PubueL%oes Service Corp

                                                                  .;    ;.*I R E. Fate.Jr.                       l Pubhc Serv 6ce Co. of Oklahoma   j W. R Brewer (Chairman)                         G. H. Appiegren (Chairmann Mddle South Services Inc                     Commonu-+alth Edson Co                            E. F. Timme                          l J. 3;eiwes                                    J.J. Alber,                                              Intercomoany Pool                j Nortneast Power Coordnaang Counci            Eau Central Area Reliabiary Coordnacon            K. E. Wolters A 9 f'* met                                           wisconsn Decmc Power Co P. R Horn
             .%d.Contment Area Renabihty Coordnanen    1 W. Boston Agreement                                    Power Authonry of the State of New York J. A Hutchison                                 D. Eyre Wen Texas Utaties                            Techncal Staff. WSCC H R P!atz                                     R F Hebb. Jr.                                                                          '

Wisconsn Eseme Power Co Flonda PowerCom W. T. Robertson J.1 Juba Duke Power Co U. S. Bureau of Reclamanon ' l C R Roserfer 1 F. Vogt.Jr. Detroit Edson Co Middle South Services Inc ' R W. Werts h J. D. WaEaceKansas Power and Ught Co General Pubhc L%ces Service Corp J. K. Wiley K. Waiams Delmarvs Power and Ught Co Houmon Ughong and Power Co 4 L Wi!!iams Southem Canfomia E6 son Co ,, ,

I N PSI" REPORT TO NATIONAL A FCTRIC REUABILITY COUNCIL BY North American Power Systems Interconnection Committee J D HI D l'J DJd Tl 6f a ~

                                                                                         ; gt "Th2NAPSIC organization must be constantly                      Each Guide and supplement are assigned to NAPSIC

• Commtttee members as custodians who initate or accept alert to changing circumstances and be ready to act suggesdons for revisions. The recommendations then are occ:rdingly. Conrinual review of the interplay consndered by the enttre NAPS 1C Commatee. On approvalin bettneen reliabilfty and economy fn operations is a-that forum, all of the systems from the various regions are must. Determining the propertceighting of these txco poBed. A two-thirds malomy of the systems voting is requued factors is and taill continue to concern NAPSIC in the. f radoption.

future" Hany H. Mochon.Jr., Standing Cnmmitteer Chairmoir.NAPSIC Standing Committees of NAPSIC are the Perfonnance Subcommittee. Operaung Manual Subcommmee. Communications Subcomrnmee andthe General Meeting Purpose arid Organizatiun Subcommittee. Th2 Nenh Amencan Powe SystemsInterconnecten The Performance Subcommmee conducts and evaluates Commmee (NAPSIC) provides an operaung organizaten surveys and studies of area control error, frequency response charactensues. inadvenent interchange and automatic responsible for coordinanng operaung matters, especially mese fcctors that promote reliability of operation among the generation control performance regularly reportng to al!

nt:rconnected systems in North Amenca. NAPSIC develops NAPSIC systems.

    ,peratng guides. recommendations, entena, and standards to          TM Operaung Manual Subcommittee makes necessary covgoperaung matters that require coordmattort.                revisions to the Operating Manual to maintain a timely DSIC was conceived in 1962 and formahzad in January.       up-to-date publication.

TheCommunicanons Subcommittee keepsinformedof the 19ed, although its predecessor organizanons date back as far as 1933. Through the years. area representaten and ac vitiesinvolvmg electne unlity communicanons and sif!!ianon have changed. From an independent organizatiert performs any communicacon coordinanon work required or requested by the Commmee. m th2 begnning. NAPSIC now keeps close liaison with the National Electne Reliability Counc:1 (NERC). Two of The General Meeeng Subcommmee plans. coordinates and conducts the annual General Meeting for all member NAPSICs officers serve as members of NERCs Technical Advisory Commmee and one NAPSIC representanve is a systems. Although no meeung was held in 1975 due to m:mber of the NERC Interreg:enal Review Subcommittee. industry austenty programs, a General Meeeng is planned in 1976. Its theme wiu be economy vs. reliability in system N APSIC is currently revismg its regional boundancs to conform to those of the Naconal Electne Reliability Counc:1. operation. Operating Guides and Minimum Criteria for Current and Future Activities Op; rating Reliability Operating Guides No.1-Automatic Generanon Control-and No.15-Transmission--were revised and NAPSIC continually maintains and updates some approved by the systems dunng the year. Guides No. twenty.one (21) Operacng Guides included in its Operatng 4-Time Error Standard and Correccon-and No. Manual. A supolement to the Operseng Manual, endorsed by 6-Calibration of Frequency Meters and Time Error the National E!ectne Reliability Coune:rs Execunve Board. Devices-are being combined into a single guide for presenbes Minimum Cntena for Operanng Rehability. classification purposes. As noted below. Guide No. 9-Acton The Guides and Cmena cover the following areas of n Emergency-is being studied for a major revision. int:rconnected operatons: During the year, a Survey on Operating Reliability was completed to help determine adherence to NAPSICs 1.. Emergency Operating Procedures Minimum Cntena for Operating Reliability. One hundred

2. Scheduled Outages of Major Facilites forty.five systems large and small from all sections of the

3. Operaung Reserves United States and Canada responded. Most systems comply

4. Automatic Generation Control, with minimum cntena. However, while cocrdination among Interchange Scheduling systems is excellent dunng' capacity shortages, some improvement is required during energy shortages such as System Monitonng were expenenced during the 1973 74 cil embargo and dunng

7. Training of Operanng Personnel the water shortage in the Northwest. Consequently, a maior S. Regulacon Surveys revision of Guide No. 9-Action in Emergency-is under way i

9. Lead Shedding. Sectionali::ng and Restoration to insure proper coordination. Similar surveys will be i l

_ . . . in hiumnd Natitcanon ci Sustem Disturbances mndue:ad as reoutred in the 'uture

Another area of concem for NAPSIC in 1975 was ee.line appropnate cdteria: and contrel and ame error, which showed some detenoranon. 3. A special Subcomminee was appointed to review NAPSIC Symptomanc of this detenoracon were the frequent ume entena to insure that they are not unnecessanly rigui from cort:cuens, the duranen of eme correenons and substantal economic and reliabdity standpoints, inadvertent accumulanons by some systems. It is suspected The review and evaluanon of cnteria may be NAPSIC's pt the detenorabon in centrol may be assoc:ated with efforts most important endeavor dunng 1976. It is a difficult task

                          . reduce producten costs. While lack of adequate control                                                                                      because precse measurements of operanng reliability entena may be tolerated dunng tmes when reserve margms are                                                                                            have not been established and vary from region to region adequate, it can have a very senous efiect on reliability in the                                                                                                                                                                                             l throughout North Amenca.                                                                                      1 longer run. Therefore, NAPSIC has implemented a                                                                                                         Nor should there be a single set of standards because of the thres. phase attack on the problem:                                                                                                           wide vanety of factors and system charac:enstics from regiorr

1. A letterwas wntten to all systems from the NAPSIC to region throughout North America.The r Mal Chairman urging each to evaluate its control policy; operanon of the bulk power supply systems is dependent  ;

2. The Performance Subcommntee has requested addinonal upon coordination, cooperadon, and judgment of the surveys and direcdy contac:ed systems not meeung operatingpersonnelof allthesystems.

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p. P.O. BOX 102

, y l CANTON. OHIO 44701 g (216) 456-2488 OWEN A. LENTZ, EXECtJTIVE MANAGER t REPORT TO NATIONAL A SCTRIC RELIABILfW COUNCIL BY ( :iczt Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement l -

        " Coal is presently, and taill continue to be, the             Review Comtruttee. (The ECAR Comrmsson Staff domin ~;ntfuelforpotcerplant use in the ECAR area,                  Coordmaung Committee is a comennttee established by state-

pro

iding 90% of the electric energy. If systems in commissons and the Federal Power Comfrussion. Its -

l rh2 region are to avoid electric potcershortages irr membership is composed of heads of the state commission , rhzfuture, lt is imperative that more reasonable and engnwing staffs. and repmsentadves of FPC am in \ noreflexible air quality standards be enacted so as attendance at meenngs.) to assure that this majorprimary energy source can Progress During 1975 l be used to meet the needs of ourconsumers." ECAR has contnued to cany out established programs to B. John Yeaaer. assess gencal progress of the council and the effectiveness of Chairmair.ECAR entena established by ECAR to enhance reliability of bulk power supply as covered by several ECAR Documents in Raional Organization tight of expenence obtained in their application. The program Acevities of the East Central Area Reliability Coordination of analysis and appraisal of the bulk power network Nieement are administered as depicted in the Organization performance for summer and winter peak load penods was Chart. ECAR established ; bu!k power membership for contnued. The simulation studies made under this program -

   -ystems whose generation and transmission have a significant        showed the bulk power network to be strong in terms of

, mpact on the reliability of the interconnected bulk power withstanding severe conungences. loss of major genera:ing 1 etworkin the area. A listng of the 26 bulk power members is and transmission components, and in transfemng large l .newn below. An ECAR Liaison Committee proudes amounts of bulk power throughout and across the regon-epresentanon for approximately 370 cooperanves. Advtsory Panels camed out conunumg assgnments and m- w is, andinvestor-owned systems whose afectne issuedintemalinfonnanen reportswhichincluded "ECAR w .s do not directly affect the reliability of the bulk power Survey of Environmental Pracnces--Transmission Line network. There were no changes in the ECAR organizanonal Right-of-Way of ECAR Members" and "The impact of Delays nructure or membership dunng 1975. and Cance!!ations of Generanon Addinons on the Future l A permanent staff located in Canten. Ohio. coordinates the E!eeme Power Supply to the ECAR Area." I ,. wn:s of the ECAR organt: anon, prewdes general Generaeng capacty placed in service in 1975 totaled 4.375 essistanc2 and implements other ass:gnments. The MW. With deacevations of 239 MW net additons were 4.136 Nrmanent staff presently numbers ten employees. composed MW. This inc!uded an additional 1.300-MW coal-fired umt of an Executive Manager, two senior engneers, four and a 1.050-MW nuclear unit. There are 32 generating units technicans, and three secretanes. in operation in the area which are 570 MW or larger. ha.ing a A digtal computer located at the ECAR staff headquaners total generaung capability of approximately 24.000 MW. l nterfaces with the ECAR teletype network interconnectng Additions to the bulk power transmission system were 312 l :he 19 council centers of its bulk power members and the miles of 345-kV and three m:les of 230 kV lines. These l MAIN ttgenal councl. The system provides efficient additons included fourinterconnectons between member processing of data received and transmitted over the telrype systems in the regon and two interconnectons with network and in-house computer capability for off line work, contguous regens. Ac iwtes of the ECAR organi:ationinvolve the The problems of obtaining necessary approvals permits. -

amepation of 94 representanves from the 26 bulk power and/or certfication for constructen and operation of msmb:rs anc some 20 representanves from the liaison generation and transmission facilines continue to be a threat msmbership. .o represent approximately 400 investor-owned to adequacy and reliability of bulk power supply. Because of comp;nics, municpals and cooperaave systems in the regon. inability to predict with any degree of accuracy when vanous Eight representanves of ECAR are directlyinvolved in agencies will grant permits or cemficanons and the extent of nterr: gonal coordination with contguous councis. In unpredictable intervennen. it is difficult to establish 3ccerdance with the NPCC, MAAC. VACAR. TVA. and meaningful construction schedules which can be pursued with MAIN Interregonal Agreements, meetings were held pner to any degree of confidence. '

m2 wint:r and summer peak load seasons to review and The inability to finance committed and planned  ! exch;nge current information on bulk power system construccon continues to be an added threat to,the adequacy i pertomunce and to discuss coordination of future pN and reliability of bulk power supply. Because of the above Throughout the year the ECAR Execunve Board conunued factors and somewhat !ower load projectons. ECAR coce ofinweng representatives of the Federal Power members reduced scheduled additions through 1983 bv Commtssion and the State Utlity Regulatory Commissions cancelling or defemng 22.8S2 MW of generation in 1975. naving junsdicnon in the ECAR area to be represented at the The 1976 projecnon of generanng additions for the same eme ECAR Execunve Board and Liaison Commmee meenngs. penod shows further cancellamons and deferrals of 2.346 MW The Chairman of the ECAR Commission Staff Coordinanng to bnng the total up to 25.288 MW. Cancellation or deferral N6 @riniRCMLMinb l

i DM D "D N] f if tfie hnancal climate does not improve. the peak year of : 73hYib'nMgatfie ut ttwB l . With over 81% of the repon's generacng capability in years was entrely due to industnal consumpoon, which was l coal.hred uruts, a major problem at the present cme is down 12.4% in the penod, as compared to residential and 1 meenng the air quality control programs which are being commercial consumpoon which increased 7.6% and 4.8%, implemented. Approx:mately 138 mt!! ion tons of coal were respecevely. ( pumedin 1975 to generate elecme power. Future ECAR expenenced a 1975 76 winter peak load on l requ:rements are projected to be 190 million tons in 1980 December 15,1975. of 51,465 MW. This was an increase of i and 214 mi!! ion tons in 1983. There is great uncertainty in the 9.6% over the 1974-75 winter peakload in spite of the low ability of the area generation o bum these vast amounts of power consumption by indusmal customers as noted above. coal while meeting the emetables which have been Seventeen of 19 systems estabitsbed new all-time winterpeak i established for conforming with very restncnve emission loads on this day and 16 of the peaks occurred at or adjacent standards. ECAR members are working with apprepnate to the hour ending 7:00 p.m. This occurrence demonstrates. agences to resolve the conflicts. The uncertamty in rnesting there is essentially no load diversty in the area. air quality regulacons in future years could increase The depressed economic conditions resulted in generating substancally should the more restncuve legislacon being- reserves forthe 1975 76 winter pened being much greater proposed by the House and Senate Subcommittees for the than planned. Because of this unusual stuation, a number of Cean Air Act of 1970 be enaced. ECAR systems were able to carry out substantal energy sales Si9nificant Events Affecting the Bulk PowerSystem with systems in adiacent reg ns to displace oit usage and to provide assistance to systems suffenng unusual amounts of The total kilowatthour consumpden of elect:ic power by all generating capacty losses from forced outages over extended 8 c a<=< of customers in 1975 was slightly below the usage in penods. l t' ~ p Organization Chart Emecutive Board - Liaison Committee- g 5 ..~.....-...l.

    ,                                                                         n          .

{ Executive Coordination Manages d. Staff E-- Particoatmg Members I Review Committee t Eicetric Equipment Ceneration Faolities Operation

• Transmission Faolities l

l ' - \ I - Environmental Generation Reserve- I Protection ' pd Eight Advisory Panels, each with Workmg Groups L ... . 3

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         ,        . .                                                                                                                               l P.O. BOX 32507 SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS 78216
  %                                             [

r (512) 344 8443

 = O ~;

r HAROLD A. TYNAN. EXECtRIVE SECRETARY REPORT TO NATIONAL ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL BY L intnc Rdiability Council of Texas .

       "As we enter oursixth year as a regional council It                completion of the 345 kV tie between Central Power and Light Company and Houston L!gheng and Power Company is grcrifying to note hocafar we hacecome in                             and the energ: zing of the Auscop 345 kV autotransformer by bringing togetherall segments of our industryfor the.                    the City of Ausun. With these facilities completed muleple 345 common purpose of providing reliable and adequare                        kV tes are now in operation throughout the ERCOT system.

servic2 to all our customers. Hoff W. Hardy, Performance of Bulk Power System Chairman,ERCOT Lastwmterwas a mild season and consequently both peak - demand and energy consumption were below forecasts. Although early spnng conditions indicated a dry summer, most areas of the state later expenenced above-average rainfalls. High temperatures did not oc:ur unti summer was pHc a.a h u r- Relarmg io Hehability and weil advanced. The state of the economy and the weather A . , 4. . s ns have kept energy usage some 8%elow esumates. cn Th:re were no acprecable delays in providing new ' ' resulted in 1975 showing litte or no increase over especty to meet the 1975 peak summer load cenditons. As 7 a previcusly scheduled. six new generatng units were placed in In preparacon for possible fuel shortages the systems had service increasmg the bulk power capactiity by 2.050 MW. increased their oil storace capacty to well over 12 mi!! ion barrels. With adequate supplies of fuel oil available it was. thpN combusnon turcine These addinons represent possibleagest oftanks to keep all these bengfull. essencally a It_s e.t.MW was r.ecessaryunit to andthe set gas e.inauments % amos p ne en s n e 975 program consisted of one [,[ n pitnned unit (150 MW) being rescheduled for 1976 and 360 Although the capacty available for the summer peak was MW m combuston turbines being postponed unti the fall of 2% less than ongnally scheduled, the actualload of 23.680 rns ytar. i o assure the necessary flexionity with respect to use MW was 6.3% under the estmate. Consequently the ac:ual of fuil and permit a dual pnmary fuel system. several reserve was greaterthan 25% companies have upgraded their oil finng capability. These There was one reponsble outage to the bulk power system modihcanons necessitated deranng of some units resulungin dunng the past 12 months, with a loss ofload of 250 MW a capacry decrease of approximately 500 MW. Three fourths occumng for less than one hour in the central Texas area. of th2 exisung capacty is less than 15 years old and reducten Otherwise there were no operating problems of any of total capability through retrement of units has been consequence. n;g!igbie. Dunng the year there were some SS occasions when major in the planning for the future power supply, there has been units tnpped for various reasons. In some cases the units were ! only one major cancellaton announced. ERCOT had carrying up to 400 or 700 MW. Frequency excursions we.4 l  ::: coned its first use of nuclear espacty begnningin 1980. S.ix withm limits and the interconnected system retumed to units were programmed inrough 1982 totalling 7.200 MW- normalin less than 15 minutes in most cases. None cf these a wo of these (2.400 MW) have been indehnitely postponed inedents caused senous inconvenience to customers. by Houston L:ghnng and Power Comcany. Planning for futura years will be an increasmgly more complex problem .. Actwities of Comminees l because of uncenatnt:cs with respect to load grcwth, fuel We adhere to the concept that the development of availacility, hnancal pressures. and environmental ) individual system expansion plans remains the responsibility ' rcstnctons. of that system. ERCOT. however provides a reviewing body - Actual reserve capacty is somewhat higher than planned where these plans can be combined and coordinated, and the du2 to conservanen measures by customers and the general economic situanon. However, the changns fuel situaton reliability of the total bulk power network can be simulated neccssitating a shift to generat:ng equipment utilirmg coal and and tested. A Planning Subcommittee is condnually reviewing these

     ~      nr fuel will recurre a greater lead eme. Thus a greater combined plans and an Operating Subcommmee monitors rv2 capacty will be highly desirable in making this

ransinon without adversely affecung generaeng reliability and the existing system and establishes standard guide lines.

It is obvious that the uncenatnces that have plagued the service to our customers. industry these past years conenue. For the first tme in many Th;re were 448 m0es of 345 kV transmission lines placed m service in 1975, as well as a number of 138 kV lines to years the forecasts prepared forthe next ten years have been cma@m M imanneccons between systems. One appreciably reduced. All systems have lowered their estmates

The ene rtamrycf tha future avadabuity c,f the prev 4 Jing natural gas as a boder fuel for future units the above l fossd fuels is reflected in the planning of the type, size and phasmg-out schedule appears to be realistic for the lifenme of l locroon o(future units. Beyond 1977, the buik capabdity as the ensung capacty. planned is not committed to natural gas or fuel oil. Texas The Govemor, in 1973 established an Energy Adusory l lignite, already a factor as a source of elecme energy. is beng Counc! to provide an overall review of the enugy outlook in

       'unher +veloped. Units indicated for the 1980's and beyond      Texas. This is a comprehensive study and is well underway.

h committed pnmanly to uranium and coal as fuel sources. ERCOT membas participate on the committees. and needed Anothe trend now gaining momentum is the joint informanon is being connnuaDy fumished. Ultmately this owncship of power plants for both coal fired and nuc!aar study should provide an erwrgy policy for Texas units. Rnancial burdens, environmental restnctions, fuel transportanen, and water supply make '.hese programs Organization ! *Tth ufa v na onalenergypolicy,longrange The ERCOTsystems operate whcDy withirrTexas and. l planrung could be subject to change and must remain flexible. c mpnse 85% of the total elecmc gencation locatedin the Even commitments for the near term are faced w th possible state. The area is appronmately 195.000 square miles or advcse crcumstances requinn3 alterations or substitunons. 73% of the area-of the state. Some eight million people are The present evaluation studies of the adequacy of the bulk served by the member systems of ERCOT. As of December powe network as proposed for the short term and the long 31,1975 the combined capability of a0 ERCOT systems was term take into consideracon these new chauenges. Task 33.010 MW. Tht total of the net energy supplied to the f:rces in ERCOT have updated the typical studies made each customers of CACOT systems dunng the calendar year was year with the pnnepal cases as follows. appr ximatuy 116.500 GWH. All the major generating faclities are now directly served by j theinterconneced 345-kV system which is supenmposed , 1. l. cad Row Studies forthe hve.yearpened 1975 through 1979.- over a strong 138 kV transmission gnd. The integrated EHV faclities prowde for the immediate transfer of power to

2. PowerTransfer Studies with emphasis on a necessary suddenly deficent areas and also permit two or more systems operacng strategy in the event of draste gas curtailment to exchange energy whenever mutuaDy convenient.

plans. The faciites of ERCOT are monitored by two secunty

3. Transient Response Study with updanng and centers which communicate direcfy with operators of the reimement of stacility data for more effec:ve studies. systems in their area. rstablished procedures are covered in an Operating Guide which is concnually updated as required.

4. I.cng Range Program considenng a highetransmission These precedures are companble with the basic operaung voltage level limitanons on plant siung. environmental entena issued by the North Amencan PowcSystems restnetions. and fuel diversity.

Interconnecton Committee (NAPSIC).

         . Sherr Circuit Studies updated to determine equipment           The ERCOT membership is made up of 27municipais. 50 ranngs for future bulk stations.                            cooperanves. one state agency and eight investor owned companies. A list of the membersis shown below. Any electnc-I system engaged in the generacon. transmission or distnbution l       4 twitin w is b %. n. 4 -                                       of elecmc power entrely withm the state of Texas is eligible

' ERCOT has connnued wmkmg in close assocanon with all for membership on a voluntary basis. The budget for the fiscal st:te and federal agence.s in matters affecung their operanons year is approved by the membership and is funded through and plannmg. parncv: arty with the Texas @ Ca. trol Board dues in proportion to the annual kilowatt hour sales of each and the Water Qur; sty Board. member. Of unusualinterest this past year was the Heanng called by The 12. member Execunve Board is the official goveming the Railroad Commission to considerthe ulemate eliminacon body of ERCOT. At the annual membership meecng on of gas as a boiler fuelin Texas. September 12.1975 in San Antonio a new Board was elected The beanng was conducted in June and au pames involved for the next fiscal year. In energy matters were invited to be heard. The supplier the A pamanent staff located in San Antonio looks after the transporter and consumer of gas within the state testified as to administratve affairs of the board and its committees. tha effect of sucn an order on the economy and weifare of the Assistance in the work of the Councilis provided by the state and the impact on their own interests. member entities througn pamcpanon in a Techrucal Advisory Together with all unlites with generaung facilities in the Commmee and apprepnate subcommittees. state. ERCOT sponsored a study in order to answer the economic and physical problems assocated with the - proposed order. ERCOT members personally appeared ,. p before the Commission and also had recognized expens present tesumony in their behalf. - 1 -

                                                                                                               ~ .r,,fy r

Rnally, in December the Commission issued an order i-o p/' establishing a schedule for phasmg out the use of natural gas as a boiler fuel. In essence this will require a 10% reduccon of basic requirements besmningin 1981 fonowed by a 25% , M(b (, 15 i

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b;. reducnon in 1985. The basic requirements are those y., j 1 estabiished in the years 1974 or IW~. dichever is higher. . Hardship cases will be considered. J At present. over 90% of the exisung ERCOT capactyis gas fired. Having already adopted plans to discontinue the use of

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    '.             peratives                                                            -
                                                                                                                                           .*                              State Agencies
                                                                                                                                                       *               ~
             . .                        Jasper Newton                             Stamford                                       Heame                                     Lower Colorado River Authority i        Bertiett                   Johnson County                            Taylor                                         Hemphil Belfans                    Kaufman County                            Tri-County                                      Hondo Bluebonnet                 Kimble                                    Victona County                                 I a Grange                                                                                             ,

i Brazos Larnar County Wharton County Uvingston *' l Cap Rock Umestone County. Wise Lockhart-

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ComancheCounty toneWolf Luung-Concho Valley MagicVaDay M""ME**' , New Braunfels I * "," Deep East Texas Wr "rt~ h , Austirr Robstowrr .

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Denton County McLennan County Boeme- 'SanAntonio

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    ,       DeWitt County               Medina                                    Brady                                          Schulenburg
    ,        Dickens County             Mid South                                                                                                               **                                     '              '

Brenharrr Seguin ' Fenrun County Midwest Bryan Weimar Farmers Navarro County Colpman Fayette New Era g 4 Crosbyton

Grayson-Colhn Pedemales, Cuerer CentralFrower& Ught Co i

Guadalupe VaBey Robertson Dentorr Community PubileService Co

           &mdton County                 Sam Houston                              Gariand                                       Danas Power & Ught Co Hill County                  San Bemard                               Gidd.ngs                                      Houston Ughting & Power Co Hunt-CoHM                   San Pamcio                                Goldthwaite                                   Southwestem BectricService Co

• J.A C South Texas Gonzales Texas Seeme Service Co Jackson SouthwestTexas. Greenvdle Texas Power & Ught Co West Texas Utilities Co-

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     -.                                                                                                                                           l e-                                              955 JEFFERSON AVENUE NORRISTOWN PENNSYLVANIA 19401 (215) 666-7560 A.         sk                                   WILMER S. KLEINBACH. c/o PJM INTERCONNECTION Cmaar10 smosa asemc asuasion cousca BY Mid Atlantic Area Council "A moior accompIlshment of theMAACsystems.                         region to 41,233 MW. Calvert C:iffs No.1, an 800-MW during 1975 was the significant increase in power-                     nuclearuntt was added to the MAACinstaBed capacity, generated by nuclearplants. Throughout theyear-                        increasing the nuclear component to nearty 4,300 MW or 14.9 % of the total net energy requiredforload taas                    10.4% of the total Nudear capacry produced 14.9% of the produced by nucleargeneratfort. The powerfrom this,                     total energy reqwnment. This compares wsth 6.2% produced nuclear generation represents a savings irtfossil                      by mclear capacry the year before, nRecung the onraung fuel. coal and oil equivalent to over40 million barrels                 expenence of Ms systems' mclear umts, thne of which were installed dunng 1974 totaling. 2,878 MW. Additionauy, gju,gjg*..                           F.J. Ficadenti. Chairman,          in the conunued effort to upgrade the system, to improve the MAACExecurfveBoard               overall efficiency and to eliminate sources of environmental concem, several old units, totaling 430 MW, were recred-The increase in nuclear capacry, coupled with an increase-Significant Events involving Bulk Power System                        in the purchase of economy energy from neighbonng regens Relinhilite and Adequacy                                              (the maienty of which was produced by coal fired uruts)

The coinedent annual peakload of the MAACsystems resulted in a decrease in the total net energy for load dunng 1975 occurred in August and amounted to 28,969 requirement from uruts buming fuel oil frem 35.0% to 22.8%, MW. At the eme of this peak the installed capacty of the which is an equivalent saving of 25 rm15cn barrels of oil. MAAC systems equalled 40,245 MW resulung in an installed The bulk transmission system was strengthened with the reserve of 11.276 MW or38.9% of the peak. The 1975 additon of five 230 kV lines, totaling 144 crcuit miles. At the annual peak was 96 MW or 0.3% below the maximum end of 1975,1.026 crewt. miles of 500-kV unes,159 coinedent peak of the systems which was expenencedinJuly creat-miles of 345-kVlines and 4.113 crent-miles of 230-kV of 1974 and 2.024 MW or 6.5% below the 1973 peak. ' lines were in service on the MAAC systems. The total of the net energy forload required by the MAAC Early in 1974, the respons:btlity for coordinating the systems dunng 1975 amounted to approximately scheduling of run-of.nverand pumped storage hydro was. 151.439.000 MWH. The total annual net energy was assigned to the PJM Interconnecton Of5ce by the hydro essentaDy equal to the energy required by the customers in owners, thereby providing the organt: anon for fuDy 1974. The lack of growth as measured by both peak load and op miz:ng hydro use on a resonal basis. the total energy requirement compansons results from A procedure for accurately collectng and compiling conenued econorme recession in the MAAC regon, with the unit-outage data was completed by PJM which provides a indusmal component reflectng greatest resistance to growth. data base from which urut availability stans:cs can be The latest forecast of instaued capacty and annual peak extracted for use by MAAC systems in operacons, planning. load for the Summer of 1976 indicates an instaued reserve on and accountng functons and other agences or govemmental i the MAAC systems of 30.8% based upon a peak load forecast bodies, as required, including the reporeng of up-to-date of 31,900 MW. Eddystone No. 4 (400 MW)is planned in uniform dam to the Edison E!ectne Institute on a resonal basu ' service pnor the Summer,1976 peak Major Problems Confronting Systems. minr No voltage reduct: ens or load curtailments were regmred within the MAAC regon dunng 1975. Breakthrough Solutions Accomplished l Dunng the year. the MAAC systems dehvered a total of A maior problem of the MAAC systems as expressed in the 179.338 MWH to ad;acent pools or systems to meet NERC annual report a year ago contnues to be the hnancal emergency needs for energy on those systems. Total pressure which is affectng many unlines throughout the delivenes represent a signihcant reducten in the need for country. The inflated operaung and constructen costs, the emergency energy interchanoa compared to previous years downgrading of the unlines'secunties. and the escalanng due generally to higher.than.nonnalinstalled reserves. costs of money today present the most senous problerts ever Dunng the hour of maximum emergency assistance. the encountered by the industry. jec gardizmg the future ability of MAAC systems delivered 1,830 MWH of e,nergy to adjacent the unhnes to supply load requirements reliably. Exacerbacne systems. The MAAC systems had no requirement for the financial problem is the imposition of escalaeng emergency energy from ad;acent systems. enwonmental measures, apparently without consideraton o On August 12, the Delmarva Power & Light Company cost-bene 6t relanons. I cxpenenced a disturbance on their 69 kV system resu%n'g in a As reported in earlier annual reports, there is a conunued ! loss of 115 MW of load for 59 minutes when two 69.kV lines delay in completion of the Lower Delaware Wiley l transmtssion project (V.eeney. Salem 500 kV aenal crossing o ' b' tnpped due toon overload a fault. followmg One 59.kV theofloss line was out of atanother service the eme. 69-kVline the Delaware River) assocated with the Peach Bonom and Salem nuc!aar units. This line was engnally scheduled for l Progress in 1975 service in 1971. In late 1974. as a result of delays expected in A net of more than 1,780 MW of generseng capacty was ' court proceedings. Delmarva Power & Light Company-added dunng 1973 bnnging the capacty installed in the staned investgations of an attemate nver crossing down. rive-

l l m the engisallocanort By senng of 1975. the decson was The correcten of inseument wbracons in the second urut

d2 ta r: locate the cross:ng and by summer. Delmarva was commencedin January,1976.

  .aieng coproval by the Gowrnor of tne State of Delaware.              The snancal. fuel, and insra!!ation delay problems funher
   . d:t . approval has not been granted, although nc formal       emphasize the need to solve environmental, energy source.

neet has beenindicated. Apprnvalis required of the licensng and govemmental delay problems all of which my s of Engneers following the State of Delaware present restramts on the instaBation and operation of nuclear provai' Construccon is expected to take 14 months umts, a general problem which has been cted in four previous

  ;1owing approval. Il construction were permitted                 annual repons.
  . mediately. the delay in the servce date of this line would Activities with Regulatory Commissions or Staffs
  .:eed five years. This delay has resulted in voltage ducnons. voluntary load curtailment in southem New                   The MAAC Execueve Board conenues the practice of                    '

I rsey and a maior system disturbance in Delaware. This. inviting the Federal Power Commisson and the State Public irtion of the MAAC region remams in jeopardy, which UtiHty Commissons having jurisdction in the MAAC region to J ould have reached even more severe proponions acept for be represented at the quarterly Facuuve Board meenngs. e foDowing fae: ors- (1) the intenm installation of four xse angie regulanns cansformers on parallel crcuits on the Other Comments of Interest ta the Public.The News ibise Semce Eecmc and Gas Comoany system at a cost of Media. Governmental Officials or Regulating Agencies proxim tely 514 million thereoy allowing funher ut!!zanon Progress on four nuclear units in the MAAC region was the suppiy paths into the area of generanon defic:ency. (2) halted dunns 1975 when, on September 16. the Philadelphia-std! acon of approximately 500 MW of strategcallylocated gecnic gmpany ann unced suspemien ofits Fulton

   .mbuscen turernes on the Public Serwee Eecme and Gas             Project which included two high-temperature gas cooled empany. Pht!adelphia Eecnic Company and Atlante City             (HTGR) nuclear units totaling 2.320 MW. The units were ectne Company systems at a ostin excess of 580 million.          onginally scheduled for operation in 1984 and 1986.

1 development of specal err.ergency operaung procedures. Subsequently on October 23. the Delmarva Power & Light 4 uneconomic operacon of the system to limit power Company and General Atomic Company announced insferinto the area of generacon deficiency. and(5) the ;erminanon of contractual arrangements on the Summit me: dent lower than-forecast load growth m the regon due-Project. This project included two HTGR nudear uruts. un:ral economic condinons. totaling 1.540 MW. ongmally scheduled for service in 1981 A potennal problem of considerable magnitude is and 1984. These MAAC companies are studying attemauves vcloping due to delays in a seccon (known as tne for replacement of these energy sources. wensack.Eroy linel of a 500-kV transm:ssion link from ntral to eastem Penmyivama. This transmission link. when Testimony Before Congressional Committecs

    .mfe. will provide needed remforcement to the 500-kV ste .. within MAAC. prowding a ransmission outlet for               The PJM systems sponsored a report, dated September, irc2 Mile Island No. 2 generator planned for service in May. 1975. enetfed. " Coordinated Operation of the PJM Interconnecten Opemizes Fuel Use and Provides Reliable G8 and increasing the PJM emergency import capability

d. thus. increasing the MAAC systems' caoability to meet its Power Supply at Lowest Poss;ble Cost". which was sent to iability reowrements. A policy of "open planmng" has the Federal Power Commission and Federal Energy en followed by Philadelphia Eecme Company in order to Administanon for support of the "Untity Conservanen Accan

   ,tain th; cooperaton of Montgomery Countyin the                   Now (UCAN) Program. The report direc:s attennon to the tol:m:ntanon of the vitally needed !ir'e.                        benefits of power pooling and the benefits of pool-to-pool At tha request of Montsomery County. the proposed              transactons which result in economic operation over wide regens. The report emphasizes the fact that such economic unng of the line has been changed to meet the " common
     .mdor" concept by paralleling an exisung 230-kV line. The       operation results in opum: zed use of all fuel, prowding the trt of constructen has been delayed by condemnacon              seven million customers served withm the repon with power generated at the lowest possible cost.

oceedmgs before the Pennsylvania Public Unhty t ommission which have been in progress for the past two

sts. Th2 MAAC companies involved are working to: 3rd a Members and Associates of Regional Council 177 seruce date; however, this could be in jeopard/ if the SS"'" Fennsytvania Cectnc Co Attanne Chv Cecme Co PennsvNarna Power & bgn:Co cmmission prolongs its rewew and final acton. Bainmore Gas and Dectne Co Philadelcrua Cectne Co A 500-kV transmission loop is planned for service by 1980 ceimarva Power & Lgni Co Potomac Decmc P>er Co th2 Washingen. DC. areas of the MAAC and SERC Jerwy Central Power & Lght Co Pubhc Service Decmc arid Gas Co unct!s. Sectons of the loop. however. are scheduled in Metropokran Edaon Co UGI Corp.

Aanc2 of that date and t:mely instalianon is essennal to Associa:es ' av.d2 the Baittmore.Washmgton area with sufficient power Pennsylvane and New Jerwy Rural Decmc Cooperauves ort capability 1o meet MAAC plannmg entena and to N'* J"YM ""***' U""**

• M*'V'* "d M"'"' "*' U"  ;

      . nance the overail economic operanon of this area.              Data for Couned Nnr mid. year. the Nuclear Regulatory Commission                Populanon urved                   21.4 mson c:r:d the two Peach Bottom boiling water reactor units           Neer of cunemers                    7.1 meen       .

051 MW and 1035 MW) to approximately one half output 1

                                                                       ^*g                ,

4 g [7354"*, *** pnt possible damage to equipment in the reactors due 97% of NewJersev 60% of Maryland i .at on of certain reactor core monitonng devices. The 75%of FennsWania 1% oi Mrgmia bration problem. wh:ch is common to all reactors oi this g , me. has not affected the safe opsration of the powrtr plant. g,,umum Peak Lead to Cate 30.993 MW foccurred 8/30/731 N vibration problem tr one unit was corrected ar.d has Maxenum Annual Enersy Reaunements to Date _XWTrT% Tub %r?W@ rE rGm El instrumeri wbratons. 155.362.352 MWH foccurred 1973) l

7' 9- " (

                                             " 1 N 301 SWIFT ROAD P O. BOX 278. LOMBARD. IL!.1NOIS 60148 (312) 495 3663 E.       6.            da              E.L MICHet CON. ADMINISTRATIVE MANAGER O2PORTTO NATIONAL FTCTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCILBY
         .MiM.mcrica Interpnol Network "All areas saithin MNN have turned to nuclear                  indicate a generaung rescw in acess of 15% for each of the generation as a means of conservingfossilfuels and                next ten years: the maryn for the summer of 1976 wdl be.

providing base load energy at a minimum cost. Witir our20%. ten units noto in operation and 12 additional units he reliability of the MAIN transmisuon system is, plannedfor the next ten years, nucleargeneration in concnually under sudy. both for c;.strent conditions, and for ' MNN in 1,984 taill represent 29 % ofits generating the protected future system. Ewry etion ts made in smulation CC.pocitV., studies of the future system to uncover weaknesses that might lead to potental blackouts. It is anecpated that the 345 kV Earl K. Dille, system mil be expanded extensively and the present 765 kV Chairman,MNN system. which now consists of one :e to the ECAR regen wdl be extended and other interregonal mes at this voltage mil be constructed.

• An intereseng pessbie develcpment being studied in MAIN wnific am i#artrm Aficctino the Bulk Pnu er Svstem is the futureuse of underground cable operaung at high The coinedent peak ! cad fer MAIN in 1975. which v Itage D.C. (HVDC) to transmit pown frem the suburban occurred on August 21, was 23.72S MW: this compares with area cf Chicago to load centers m the ety. Detailed studies a 1974 ceak of 2S.278 MW. No dfhcultes were expenenced have been made with the and of a manufacurer which have in carrymg the load en me peak day. However. earlier in the sh wn that D.C. carr be mere ecencrmcal than A.C. for this summer season. due to a lag in e mpienng the maintenance type of semce.

program and other facters. MAIN apenenced penods of Whde MAIN foresees no maior problems in mamtaming the insutheent operacng reserve. The MAIN regon imponed reliabdity and adequacy of :ts system for the near term. the emergency power :n excess of 2500 MW on several days ng range picmre wesents many McWees. De abing to fm:n the coeracng reserve was suencrmal. { nance generstng and transmissen preiects c Dunng 1975. five fesn!.hred generanng untts were. pr blem in s me areas. and leaves the possibility that the nsk completed. rangng in si:e from 50 to 640 MW. and totaling of Icad cunadments or blackcuts could be increased in the 2.220 MW. In ad6cen. ene 2T.MW ecmbustion rureine was mstalled.

                                                                                 *y ,            g,                           g,g A numberof new 345-kV transmission lines were                 in delaymg generacon and transm:sson projects. and could completed dunng 1975. totaling 120 mues :n lengh. Included        resuit m p wer shcrtages in the future. Uncensinees on future in this construccon were two new interreponal ces which               el sup$es mmatn a com@canng factorin pknnmg 6mm h:ve strenghened the interface between Illincis and the          genera.mg pegets.

ECAR systems in Indiana. Also. two new intraregonal tes between systems in Illincts were piaced in service. 14rform,tnce nf Bulk Pau er Svstem During 1975 There were no sencus fuel supply problems in MAIN There were no unusual disturbances that threatened dunng 1975. Natunt gas for power generanon was severely system reliabdity tit the MAIN regen dunng 1975. In January. cunaded. but an adequate supply of od was avadable for the a violent wind storm m Wisconsm resdted in the destruccon combuscen turbines in the regon. of about 70 mdes of 345-kV transmission line. This less of ! There are many mdustry problems relanng to the future transmission capacy created sencus coetanng noblems for succiy of fossd fuels. both ecal and c:1. In the MAIN regon. the Wisconsin systems but had only a mimmal effeet on tne

Mre has been a trend toward greater dependence on nudear everall reliability of the MAIN transmission system.

power to mimmize these pcssible future dfficultes. At the end An unusual situation deveicped earlyin 1975 that created of 1975. the MAIN companies had in semce a total ef 10 th8 PC5S'Cd'ty of a pown snonage in the MAIN repen. As a nuclear units. rangng m si:e from 200 to 1040 MW and result of a pipe.crackmg problem that develeped on one of tetailing 6.265 MW wn:ch is approximately 17% of the the nudear units in MAIN. the Nuclear Regulatory gen:ratng capacty in MAIN. Commission (NRC) was considenng an order that would The current construccon program for the pened 1975-84 require the s:multaneous shutdown cf the hve nuc! ear units in indudes the completon of six adinenal nuciear stanons with the regon for inspecten purposes. This accon would have 12 generanng uruts. totaling 12.600 MW. This represents created a senous power shortage; however, after consultation 43% of the esoscty mstalled dunng this pened. By the with NRC it was agreed to spread the scheduled outages to summer cf 1984. the nuc! car umts wdl represent avoid shumng down the five units at the same nme. ppprox2mately 29% of total generanng capacility in MAIN. a ne planninc for the MAIN systems connnues to be based Activ ties of Committees of Regional Council en maintar ng an adequate supply of generstmg capac:y. Dunng 1975. the MAIN Transmissien Task Ferce pnmat through instal!ed capacty and supplemented with completed seasonal operating studies for the summer of 1975 firm purchase contracts with adicining regens. Present plans and the winter of 1975/76. Also, a 1980. study covenng both

l ihterch'ang'e capabilities and extreme disturbances was in October,1975. the Federal Energy Administracon (FEA) , i c:mp'eted A unique feature of this study was a check of held a conference in Chicago on Producuvity of Generanns transfer capabilmes assuming two diffuent load levels- (al Uruts. This was one of a senes of conferences to discuss the current esumates, and (bl higher loads. corresponding to the eartic report on this subrect by the FEA. Six of the MAIN 1974 esumates. The purpose for studytng the higher load comparues presented statements outlining their posnon on I was to uncover problems that might develop if load produenuty and prowding the FEA uth data desenbing the th would accelerate and retum to the earlier trend line. operanng results being eg ts.ed. It is of inteest to note that all the MAIN transmisson studies l include a comprehensaw analysis of interreponal capabilities Regional Organization with counc!s conaguous with MAIN. This effort is accomplished through the acavines of liaison members on the MAIN has two types of membership Regular and MAIN Transmisson Task Fon:e fmm ECAR. MAECA and. Assocate. The Assocate membes indude murvapels and. TVA. cooperativea in the MAIN area that do not have a sgnificant l Dunng 1974. a MAIN task force dewloped a systen for effect on system reliability. For administranw purposes the l rec:rding the performance of EHV trensnusson lines in the MAIN members haw been subdivided geographically into MAIN regon. The purpose was to crowde data which will be fourgroups. Following is the list of mornbership as of usefulin system reliabt!ity studies and to aid in formulanng December 31,.1975: cntena for detemirung powertransfer capabilices. During Regular Members i 1975. the systems in MAIN have been fumtshing data, and a computer program has been dewioped for processng the. Commonwealth Edison Co inf:rmanon. An annual report for 1975 is expected to be Olinois Group: cvailable in the spnng of 1976. CentralIllinois Ught Co MAIN Guide #2, which define procedures for simulation tc ung of the bulk powe transmirnon system was revised and CentralIllinois Public Service Co expanded to cowr methods for detemuningintraregonal and Ulinois Power Co int:rr: gonal transic capabilit:es. The definitions of transfer Southam 1111nois Power Coopeanw capabilines developed by NERCin 1974 wee formally adopt:d by MAIM. Pnorto this revison, Guide #2 was limited Spnnsfield-C:ty Water Ught and Powe to outlining methods fortesung me system for extreme disturbances. The revtson also includes comments on entena Msoun Group to be followed in evaluanng the adequacy of the transmisson AssocatedSecmcCoopcanw Inc IN Guide 46 desenbes a method fordetemining. Uni nSecmeCo ater reserve requirements. It is used annually tar Wisconsin-Uppe Michigan Group: cvaluate the MAIN ten-year capacty program, by checkin9 Madison Gas and Elecric Co the adequacy of power supply dunng the summerpeak pened. Dunng 1975. addinonal studies were conducted to (1) UpperPeninsula Powe Co dit:rmine the degree of reliability throughout the year, taking Wisconsin Sectric Powe System into account the generator maintenance requirements and (21 Wisconsn Powerand Light Co provide a sensinvity analysts showing the effect of reduced gen:rator reserve and other vanables on system reliability. Wisconsn Public Service Corp MAIN Guide 11. which covers eperanng procedures dunng penods d generaung capacty deficences and Associate Members dec!!ning systery frequency has been under study to c!anfy tnd d:f:ne more completely the acnon to be taken by the Association of Illinois Elecmc Cooperanves MAIN systems when a shortage of operanng reserve Municpal Elecmc Utilities of Wisconan develops. Westem Illinois Power Cooperative Activities with Regulainry and AdministrativeAgencies  :- MAIN and its members have followed the practice of MAIN is managed by an eight. member Executive maint:ining a close relationship with the Federal Power Commmee with two members from each of the four groups. Commission and the State Regulatory Commissions. These Annually there is a meenng of all the MAIN members. at Commiscons are invited to attend the Annual Meenng of which time each Group selects its Execunve Committee MAIN members. Meenngs have been held with staff membes representatives. The Executive Committee names the of th2 Federal Power Commission from ame to time to review members of the Engmeenng. Operanng. Enwonmental and with them the status of the power supply situation. Minutes of Coordination Center Administrative Commmees. and directs ! the MAIN Engneenng Commmee Meenng are transmitted to their accuties. A Transmission Task Force of the Engneenng i the F:deral Power Comrmssion, and the State Regulatory Committee is responsible for the vanous transmission system I Commissions in the MAlN regon. studies: this represents a major effort, with more than 20 MAIN has followed the practice of gving wide dismbution engineers from the MAIN and interconnected systems paygnificant repons produced by NERC. These have been spending a large percentage of their eme on this aceuty. The

        .:nbuted to State Commissions, the Chicago Regonai                   Engineenng and Operattng Commmees use vanous l

! Offic:s of the Federal Power Commission and the Federal subcommmees and task forces to achieve their objectives. En .rgy Administration and vanous schools and libranes in the which involws part-time acnvity for many addinonal regon. engineers from the MAIN companies.

g l 6 o M JR X h

            .     ,%4tN h:s two Interragonal Reliebility Coordination                                                                                         The MAIN staff includes an Administrattw Man:ger who Agre:msnts; a two. party agte:m:nt with MARCA. and a                                                                                       coordinates the actutes of the vanous MAIN Committees thr.:e. party agreement with ECAR and TVA. These                                                                                           and aids the Chairman with administranve matters.

l agreements proude for penodic review of the adequacy and MAIN serws owr 6.000.000 customers in an area of l reliability of the interreponal systems. Coordinanon with the approximately 170,000 square miles. The total generanns Southwest Power Pool is accomplished informally through capability of the MAIN systems as of December 31,1975 was ' MAIN Systems that are connguous with SPP, and have approxirnately 37.600 MW. anambership in both regens. The operanng actvities of MAIN are managed by a items o(Public Interest Coordinaton Center, which is equipped with a teletype On November 3.1975. the Chic =go Tnbune published an syst:;m which provides communicacon with MAIN members extensrve artcle commemorating the 10th anniwrsary of *he and coneguous councis. The pnmary purpose of the Center Northeast Blackout. and descnbmg the activines of MAIN and is to proude informaten on capacty availability and the other regional counc:Is in mirumtzmg the possbility of , stitus of the transmission system. In 1973, a mini-computer- blackouts in Chicago and the sur >unding area, was installed at the Center for the purpose of perfonnmg MAIN members were saddened dunng the year at the engneenng studies of the transmission system. Also, it has sudden and untirnely death of Mr. J. G. Quale who had prowd to be a useful tool for rapid resung the MAIN system served as Chainnan of MAIN from 1973 to 1975 and at the for unusualoperanng s;tuanons. t:me of his death was Chairman of NERC.

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4- * . e/o MAPP COORDINATION CENTER l . . , 1250 SCO UNE BUII.D(NG, MINNEAPOUS, MINNESOTA S5402 l l t (612) 330 6800 A. a. a. PAUI R. HEIM EXECUTNE SECRETARY bRT TO NATIONAL ELECTRIC REUABUTY COUNCIL BY MsContinent Area Reliability Coordination Agreement ,

        " Utilities in the MARCA area are experiencing                     Total energy transfers between MARCA and other NERC continued growth in residential and commercial                       regons amounted to 5,442.728 MWH dunng the year.

m:rkets coupled with strong activity in the. Between MARCA andMAIN,1,989,066 MWH were l cgricultural and iron are sectors. Also, due to the interchanged. 85 % on a rousne bans and 15% dunng 1 penods of emergency asnstance. Betwun MARCA and strong coal and nuclear base generation the indus'TY Westem Systems Coordinanng Counci (WSCC) 842,46o, is not being heavily as impacted as some regions by MWH were tnterchanged, all on a routne bass. Betwun mereased oil costs and decreasing natural gas MARCA and Southwest Power Pool (SPP) 2,611.196 MWH av:il:bility. On the other hand, the strong were interchanged,97.6% on a rousne basis and 2.4% m:v:ments to restore, preserve and maintain the dunng penods of emergency assnstance. Significant!y, l natural environment are becoming major constraints MARCA receipts of emergency energy were nearty three l to the orderly and timely planning and development times as great as the1r delivenes of emergency energy. I cf neta generating and transmit.sionfacilities. This There were no maior disturbances in the regon involvmg coupled with presentloadforecast uncertainties pose- significant customer load cunnilments. There were a few a pot:ntfal threat tofuture reliability and adequacy instances in which generaung schedules had to be revtsed to of bulk power supply." provide contngency protecton, but they were caused by l necessary transmission outages of a temporary nature and did 1 J.R.Lyon, not work a hardship. j Chairman,MARCA in February, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission ordered l all Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) units off for mspec:fon for j s,... < s,.i. n ..,3 g,.-tin.) Biill, Power Supple cracks m the core-coolant peptng. This involved six units in MARCA dunng a pened when nuclear energy was sorely System reserves dunng the year were higher than they needed to replace foss:1 fuels. Allinspectons were completed e been for some eme, permitung systems to carry on an within a three-week penod wsthout causng a senous adverse-f.xt:nsive maintenance program and meet Nuclear effect on reliability.' , R:gulatory Commission capacty cunailments without the l n:cd for use ci any scecal procedures to mamtam reliability. Cacacty reserves were 3.486 MW or 24.1% at the eme of the NEMACMES ADDEN M75 summer peak which occurred on July 30. and 5.034 MW or c= m.5 c.p. city High voita,, 47.1% at the ame of the December peak which occurred on  ? TYP* CapawW Type n Mues December 17. Cacac:ty reserves for Summer 1976 and Fosat Steam 1'186 325 W 525 Winter 1976-1977 are expeced to be 29% and 2S%, oi i 6 230 W 55 r:scectively. Cas Turbmes 297. 115 W 151 Fuel avadabt!iry to the regon has been adequate. although Nuclear 527 costs have increased signihcantly. Near term supplies appear Total 2.016 732 l ad:quate. but systems conenue to maximize coordinaton of l operanens to take full advantage of load diversity and hydro The most significant transmission additions from a regonal conditions m the Missoun River Basm. Nuclear generaton, standpoint were the completon of two 345-Wlines from the wnich construtes 19% of reponal generanng capability, plays Basin Elecme Power Cooperanve's Leland Ords stanon to an important role m conservation of limited fuels. maior USBR interconnec en points in South Dakota. These Performance of the bulk power system dunng the year was were major conmbutors to the effort to keep transmission I excellent. Transmission capacility was adequate to provide capacty abreast of increased generseng capacty in Nonh l for all required power interchanges. both intemally and Dakota coal fields. mterreponally. Intraregonal and interregonal energy Several years ago, systems in the MARCA area agreed that transfers were camed out under normal operanng conditions, installation of Power System Stabilizer (PSS) uruts on all making the most economical use of facilites. On a few days, suitable generatng units in the area would improve system wh:n the caoacty to load rato in MARCA was lower than reliability. Initially. installations made did not produce the l usu:1 because of extensive capacey reducnons due to results desired. In late 1975 a seminar on the subject was held maintenance. reliability was improved by increasing in MARCA and it was determined that a standard checking prehases from outside the regon. A notable example was procedure would be developed and applied to all units, usmg

    'n2 July 14 cenod when MARCA systems had more than                 specalized test equipment purchased in a joint effort by
       .500 MW of generstmg capacey unavadable, and purchased           systems in the regon. Dunng 1975 this test equipment was
    .o to 950 MW from MAIN and systems to the southwest.                purchased and semngs on neany all units in the region were Conversely. MARCA systems supplied up to 950 MW to                  tested and reset where necessary. The equipment will be i

MAIN systems dunng the June 16-20 penod. when they had maintained by the MAPP Coordinacon Center and made e similar need. available to MARCA systems. O

A' s a result of the expenence gained in studies made of regmes and management informaton pertaining to Iccacon, abnormal frequency osedlacons and the dynarme devices size, and cooling modes for generation of these two nvers. (such as PSS) needed to ovecome them, MAPP/MARCA The Comrmitee coordinated the study with representanves of systems have been selected to assst in the Elecme Pown the nuer basm comnussions in the MARCA regon. Rewarch Insttute (EPRI) projec&nr.g analysis of The C!aan Air Act and proposed amendments were gven w frequency esellacons in large elecmc power systems. hThis project should be of benefit to the entre elecme industry. much attentinn throughout the year. Members of the Environmental Committee prepared and dismbuted on an Near the end of the year, a new communicanons system individual basis a pamphlet enntled "A Postion Statement on was brought into service in the regon. Called the MAPP Regonal Air Quality", which outlines a long range clean air Computenzed Communicacon System (MCCS), it is an strategy for the regon. Members of the Committee advanced system using voice grade telephone lines, representing their respectve systems also met with the staff of mimcomputers, and terminsis conssung of keyboards, the Senate Public Works Committee in May to discuss speche pnnters, and CRTs (Cathode Ray Tubes). All systems in dean arrimpacs on system planning and opcations in the MARCA have at least one terminal in addition, terminals are region. Where amendments are concemed, considerable located in two Southwest Power Pool systems, three in other work was done in analysis of the resonal impact, and the-systems in the MARCA area, and one termmal connects the Committee provided back-up support to member enorts in system to the MAIN teletype network, providing communicaton of clean airissues. commurucations wrth each or all of its 12 teletype terminals. Two workshops were sponsored dunng the year, gving Effectvely, the system can provide simultaneous MARCA members an opponunity to discuss proper handhng-communicacon capability between nearly all systems in the of water studies, land use, and c!aan air programs. North Central Regon of NAPSIC. The Committee completed a regon-wide survey of air The pumose of the installaton was to encourage operator monitonng effons-current and planned-of the ut!ity exchange of operating informacon via the pnnted word by industry and state agencies. This survey is being used as a making it as near to voice communications as possible without basis for 1976 air progmm planning for the Committee. gung up the obvious advantages of a pnnted record and Wntten testimony on regonal water-related problems was muleple simultaneous commurucation. In actuality. operators submitted by the Committee to Vice President Rockefeller, do not communicate directly with each other. but each Chainnan of the National Commission on Water Quality. communicates with the mimcomputers in the MAPP MARCA, MAIN, and SPP are studying the possibility of Coordinacon Center. They in tum direct the messages to the joint resonal future systems models. Nothing definite has addresses designated. been firmed up but discussions were held in September 1975. In addicen to the vanous systems' termmals. the addresses MARCA sent a liaison representative to SPP model week in include a number of applicacons programswhich can December 1975. fmmanze data and make limited reports on a serm real-cme We are leaming more about our neighbonng reliability basis. The speed and converuence of the systemis such that is councls through these meecngs and also developing better expected to generate a high operatoracceptance and become extemal models. We have conunued regular llasson with a very effeceve operanng tool. MAIN Seasonal operaconalload flow studies were performed for MARCA to test the strength of the elecme system to withstand Regional Organization vancus disturcances. to pomt our potencal operasng problems. and to provide mfonnacon for development of MARCA has 22 members and one associate member as of I procedures to meet and overcome possibie abnormal December 31,1975. The associate membership is open to occurrences. in addition. a special group of studies was made elecmc utlines m the MARCA area that may be able to to analyze the effects of new generacng and transmission c nmbute to and benefit from a limited partepacon and installations on the ability of :ystems in the northwest porton support of the coordination arrangements provided by the of MARCA to expon excess energy from the area. Results of MRCA Agreement. th:se studies were used to develop swdelines for determining he members of MARCA suppen the opcanon of a safe limits of exports from the area. Coordinaton Center, located in Minneapolis, which also Cunng the year. the MARCA dehnicon of soinning reserve serves as the coordinating agency for MAPP. w s revised to include all synchronized generacng capability r r practcal purposes, idenucal representation has been capable of bemg realized within ten minutes. Previously, achieved on the MARCA Counc! and MAPP Management l somning reserve had been limited to that synchronized Committee among the systems who are members of both capacty that would automaccally respond to a 0.5 Hz drop in MAPP and MARCA. frequency. The racenale for this easmg of the requirements is MARCA members have generacng capacity of 19,433 MW based upon the strengthening of the i itemal and extemal as of December 31,1975. This capability is divided by types ransmission capabihty that has taken place in the area and as foHows-increased reliability realized from the monitonng and analysts ' Generating Capactry  ! capabilities that have been developed in the repona] Type Capabihty.MW Percerrt coordination centers. Fosat Steam 9.706 50 Nuejear , 3.6% 19 Hydm Other Regional Activities cwounion Twene 2.982 15 2.7s4 14 h The Environmental Committee completed a two-year study of the thermalleading and cooling capabilities of the 7Y 19M M upper Missoun and Mississippi Rivers for future generation The MARCA members serve approximately 3 mi!! ion needs in the MARCA regon. The study includes an improved customers in an 8-state upper midwest area that encompasses cne-dimensional computer model for stream wise thermal 400,000 square miles.

       !           .               .                                                                    Member Systems as of Decemeer 31.1975 .                                                                                                                   -
       ,           Members                                                                               Emscumve Othces                                                                        .                                                                                                                                                    ,

p Samn Cec.ic Power Cooperame Bismarck. ND , M menosa Pcm.er and Ugn Co "Duh. 't. NN l l , C Manon. M .. .Mekota Pc>er Coopeiacw. he Grand Forsa. ND -

      ;    hec.calha  copera:r.=Power          Ps er Asm-awi          Cocperam,Mmespess. MN                                                                  Mor. sana-Dance L% emes Co                                                                                   Bis .an:x.ND                                                -
      '            Com Ben PowerCoopranw                                                                 ++ambodt. %                                         Nebraska Pubac Pa er DIsenet Cosumous. NB                                      ~            -

I Douwand Power Coopraew L Lacrosse.%1 bormem States Pcm.ar Co M:nneapons.MN Easem ba Lent and Pcz er Nor*.tm.emem Puenc Seruce Co Huron. SD I Cocoerauw WDton % Omaha Pubac Pcm er Disenc Omaha.NB s heerstate Pcm.er Co Dubuoue.% Unisad Pour Assocanon ' . G Rher. NN i

     'g km.,a Eec:ne!.gz and Pcm.erCo                                                         Cedar Raiads. M                                     Unned Scates Bureau of Redamanon                                                                           . Bit:ings.MT Iown PowrandUgr:t Ca                                                                   Des Momes. W                                       AssocsateMeenber-                                                                                                                          -
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l e- * - ' 1250 BROADWAY NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10001 (212) 868-1400 j L i JULIUS BLEIWEIS, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR (REPORT TO NATIONAL A CTRIC REUABIUTY COUNCIL BY N,mtheast Power Coordinating Council "The CouncfI noted its 10th birthday toith pride in desrable planning tool Purchase of a Connngency Analysis its accomplishments, but taith recognitforr of the Program has been recommended. A significant long term chdienges to service reliability therloonrfor the objeceve of the use of such a program is to establish relauve

     /980'sy                                                            ndices of reliability ofload supply, considering, on a probability basis, the outage and duration rates of both maior Thomas J. Brosnan,      generation and transtmsson components. This approach Chairman,NPCC        would supplement rather than replace present determmisch methods of reliability =*ument.

Review of Load and Capacity Matters. A load and Regi,unal Organization capacity repen was issued covenng the penod 1973 to 1984 _. (forthe years 1973 and 1974 actual data were included). All i ne Northeast Power Coordinanng Counci (NPCC) projected NPCC peak loads for the 1975-1984 penod were consists of 21 full member systems wruch supply reduced from previous estimates. In general, the expansion approximately 98% of the electric generacon m New plans as outlined in the repen meet NPCC reliab.lity enteria. england. New York and in New Brunswick and Ontano, However, delays in serwce of maior generating and/or Canada. These systems, in 1975, had an esamated total transmission components, or altemanvely a retum to earlier capacty forload of the area of approximately 68,000 MW. . Ioad growth pacems. could bnng about a situation in which cour disunct plann:ng and operatng enntes exist within the reliability entena could not be met. Each area's generston NPCC reson. NPCC memeer systems located in New and transmisson maintenance programs, together with near engand are also members of the New cngland Power Pool term load and capacty projections and current operanng l (NEPOOL), and systemsin New York are members of the conditons, were reviewed. Reuew and clanfication of New York Power Pool (NYPP). New Brunswick and Ontano generanon and transmission plannmg and desgn entena

     '1ydro are smgle enaties servmg thetr respeenve Provinces irr     connnued.

anaca- Reliability Assessment. Work progressed favorably on a NPCCs organizanon consists of an cxecunve Commmee, detailed examinanen of the pnmary and attemate system including a Chairman and a Vice Chairman, three standing plans of the four NPCC areas for 1985, with the pnme i commmees. and nine task forces (see diagram). The Counct purpose being an assessment of the transmisson limits. both l also has a permanent technical stati. within and between areas under steady state and abnormal Membership in the Counci is available to elecmc systems conditions for vancus generanon reserve strateges. A rewew l

     "wn:ch by wrtue of generanng or transmisson capacty. or           of the reliability of the Cour.cfs bulk power transmission concentranon ofload, can have a substannal effect on the system for planned 1980 condicons was begun pnmanly to seruce reliability of the northeastinterconnecton. The            check the response of the system to possible but improbable Council s agreement also prowdes for a non-vonng associate        contingencies.

m:mbership c!asstficanon. 1 Interregi nal Coordination I%ior Studies J int study w rk is camed out based on previously The Councrs Commmees. Task Forces. and Working established interregonal agreements with reliability counc!s Grou :s - totalling approximately 100 individuals from to the south and west of NPCC -Mid. Atlantic Area Counci member systems - together with the Counc! Stati conunued (MAAC) and East Central Area Reliability (ECAR). The Study

heir rewew of the existmg and future northeast Committees perform both operacng (summer / winter) studies mterconnected system as called forin the NPCC Agreement

     "                                                                 r d for'g range studies of systems for predetermined years. A
             . to promote maximum reliability and efficiency of elecme BWc Data Preparacon Group assembles and prepares the
   . serwee in the interconnected system . . by extending th" data for these and other inter-and intra. regional studies. A coordinanon of . . system planning and operating
                       ,                                               Jo nt Interarea Review Committee ultimately reviews the work of these groups.

a or pr jects dunng 1975 included, but were not litted , to, the following Data Bank. Development of a data bank for NPCC and S.igniGcant Events Involving System Reliabil.ity colleccon and venficanon of data were continued, as the At approximately 11 PM on November 3,1975, a system project neared completion. Test versions of various disturbance occurred, separating eastem On ario and utomated Data Bank programs were used on an northem New York State from the main power gnd for about exoenmental basis to develop system models for in-progress six mmutes. This e:encalisiand suffered a large generanon intirregonal and intemal transmisson studies. reduccon and some cucmer load loss: however. correct Probability Methods in Reliability Evaluation. operanon of the frequency trend relays and under. frequency Transmission system reliability evaluation by probability relays installed after the 1965 Northeast Blackout prevented a methods has been invesegated and determmed to be a major power failure. Synchronizabon was re-established after

i.

• tbout 5x minutes, a0 key transmission was back in service The Counc! prepared its " Data on Coordmated Regional after 17 minutes and most customer load was restored within Bulk Power Supply Programs," pursuant to Federal Power 20 mmutes of the engnal disturbance.

Dunng 1975. the CrxTs systems installed 350 Commission Order 383-3 Dockc R-362. NPCC made no presentations during the year before cre.nt-miles of 115/138 kV transmission: 318 circuit-miles of congressional and other comm:ttees: however, numerous QV transrmsson: and 133 circun miles of 345 kV statements were presented to these bodies by NPCC system tra. nussion. executives represeneng their systems and/or pools. The reliability standards of NPCC specify that " Generating capac:ty will be installed and located in such a manner that Nemiwr Spivm> afterdue allowance for required maintenance and expected Executive of6m forced outages, each area s generatng supply will equal or Boston Edison Co Boston, Mass. exceed areaload at least 99.%15% of the eme.This is ~ Burlington Sectric Department Burfington, Vt_ equivalent to a loss ofload probability of one day in ten CentralHudson Gas & Eacnic Corp l ye xs. NPCC system reservesin the past year exceeded CentralMainePowerCo P@% N. Y. normai requirements due to lower-than-expected load gmwth Augusta, Maine for the past two years. With the projected load growth in the CentralVermont Public near future, reserves are expected to be lower, but sull 3g,g g y satisfactory with regard to adequacy and reliability. This Consolidated Edison Co of conditon, however, is not expected to be a long term New York,Inc New York. N. Y. expenence in view of worsenmg delays brought about by Eastem Unlities Assocates Boston, Mass. regulatory lag and large scale interventon, and/or the Green Mountain PowerCorp Burlington, Vt. possibility that load growth rates could retum to hist  ! ongIslandIightng Co Mineola N.Y. levels. In this eventuality, reserves in thes could early 1980,oncal The New Brunswick Becnic weil become unsansfactory from a reliability standpoint. PowerCommission Fredericton. N. , Canada A summacon of interregonal power exchanges with other New England Eec=ic System Wes boro, Mass. NERC regens for 1975 as foDows: New England Gas and Secrie l Assocaten Cambndge, Mass. I To NPCC- 1.935.000 MWH New York State Sectne & Gas From NPCC- 2.573.000 MWH Corp Binghamton, N. Y. In additon. exchanges with entities not members of a Niagara Mohawk Power NERC regen were. Com Syracuse N. Y. To NPCC- Northeast Utilities Hartford: Conrt 15.526.000 MWii Ontario Hyd o Toronto, Ontario, Canada p FromNPCC- 506.000 MWH Orange and Rockland Utlities. (W'( ' Inc Spnng Valley, N. Y. Power Authenty of the State The Counci conenued a previously established procedure, of New York New York. N. Y. whtreby representaaves of the Federal and State unlity Public Service Co of regulat-j agencies were invtted to the Annual Meetng of the New Hampshire m:mbership. The Counc! also held an execunve seminar to Man::hester. N. H. RochesterGas and Eecate discuss Counc! acevities. to which these representanves were Corp Rechester. N.Y. I invited. The United 111uminanng Co New Haven, Conn. l Northeast Pov.cr C.oordinating Council Organization CHAIRMAN YtCE.CNAIRMAN Extcunvt CoMMatu E I TECHNICAt. (IECUTIVE STAFF g DIRECTOR l ,. , , W E sYSTIM CisIGN Ptitut M RAUNG COORDINArlNG PRCCIDURt Con =mt INFO.RMAr!ON Cc m! Cp,ag g ( [ _,_ _,_ ,= _,_ _,_ _,_ l . ,1,a".. 4%, TO'".*."

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1 i [""% "" DANIEL SUILDING H 15 SOUTH 20TH STREET, BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA 35233 L (205) 252-0069 hd d L W.R. BROWN 1 C: ADMINISTRATIVE MANAGER REPORTTO NATIONAL FT FCTRIC REUABIUTY COUNCILBY Southeastern Electric Reliability Council "The difficulty in raising adequate capital to Certann units in the VACAR Subregott have been convested finance neta generation and transmissiortfacilities- from oilto coal continues as a real barrier to afully reliable potoer Alabama Power Company has placed into operation an supplyfor the 1980's. Ar the same time, a continuing advanced digtal computer system for real-time monitanns of disastrous lead time on construction of nuclearunits *i'4"^Ii'Y ****bI'* ***'**"di"9 Si"* *5 it' '**IiA generatng plants. Key environmental data from these plants and persistentfailure of the Congress to remedy is transmitted to a master staten in the Cenpany,s excesses of the Clean AirActfurthercompound the Simungham headquaners where they wtll provide a vital problems of the mdustry in assuring an adequate wammg the instant an environmental episode exists ard bulk polversupply so essentialforthe nation's facilitate correc:ve acton A new direct digital generation economic health." control and data acquisition system has been placed in servce ' Joseph M. Farley, by TVA at its System Control Center in Chattanooga It udnzes analog telemeter iniennaden fmm the interchange Chairinarr SERC points and hydro plants and distal data from major thermal generaung statens to calculate load frequency control, 5ig+t e r F,.. t.~ Bi ii Pwvr t-u;tric ' economic dispatch, interchange scheduling. hydro dispatch, spmning reserves. data management. and other functons Further postponements and cancellations of planned needed for on4ine distal control. A Xerox Model Sigma S generanng units were made by several Member systems computer provides data processmg. and two Interdata Model cunng 1975. !arge!y because of inability to finance these 70 mmicomputers handle communications. A third additons. In some cases, lower estimates of future loads were minicomputer provides interchange scheduling for the a facton In the Ronda Subregion the combined impactof backup analog control system. f these factors resultedin a decreaseof capac:ty planned to be Certam large systems through parte:pation in the Electne in service by the summer of 1983 by about 31 percent. Also. Power Research Insnture have contnbuted funds and advice several systems in the VACAR Subregon made funher for research in thermal. electromagnetic. and mechanical l canceilacons and postponements. One nudear unit was energy storage: advanced energy conversion devices such as l cancelled because of inability to assure fuel suppiy. On the MHD. electrochemical energy conversion and stcrage; other hand. the Alvin W. Vogt!e Nudear Units No. I and No. nudear concepts: solar energy: conversion of coal to gas or

2. on wnich construenen was suspended in 1974. have been liquid fue!s: and advanced direct combustion techmques such r;tnstated for complecon in 1983 and 1984. Also. a 500-kV as t1uidized bed combuston. In addinon. TVA is conductmg da line between the Southem and VACAR Subregens. which its own assessments on coal deaning. atmoscheric and I

had been postponed until December.1978. is now pressunzed fluidized-bed combuston technology, flue gas rescheduled for completon by September.1977. The desulfunza: ton. control of nitrogen oxide formacon by additon of this interconnecten is expected to relieve the combustion modification. inertal energy storage, wood and transmission on the Southem-VACAR interface and permit solid waste as supplementary fuels. fixed-bed coal gasification systems to exchange significant!ylarger amounts of capacity and desulfunzacon of high-sulfur caking coals, and and energy than has been possible in the past. Negocanons liquid-metal fast breeder reactor technology. I. cad are conenuing for the establishment of a second management is under extensive study in the VACAR Southem-Ronda 230-kV tie line. The Ronda Power Subregon as a tool to improve bulk power supply. Other l Corporacon's Crystal River No. 3 Nudear Unit. on which methods under study for supplying peaking power are storage construccon was halted in the absence of adequate rate relief. battenes and pumped storage hyd.c. is again under construccon after 10% of the unit was sold to A new 161-138 kV interconnecton between TVA and vanous municipal and cooperative systems. Appalachian Power Company (SERC and ECAR) was placed Sys am reserves are deemed adequate for 1975 and for the in service, superseding a 69-kV interconnecton. immediate future because new pants were commmed before The systems of SERC competed installation of 7,556 MW the current recession. Fuel supplies were generally adequate of generanon capacity. including 1.942 MW nudear. 3.090 l for 1975. The F!onda Power Corocracon's Crystal River No. MW coal fired steam.1.822 MW combustion tureines,397 1 and No. 2 Units. amounnng to 900 MW, have been MW of conventonal hydro. and 305 MW of pumped storage required to convert from oil to coal before 1979. Conversely, hydro. Some 425 mues of 230-kV !ines were completed, and some 500 MW of coal-buming units at Tampa Elecmc S8 miles of 500-kV constructen lines in the Atlants, Georgia, f Company's Gannon Plant are being reconverted from coal to area were converted from 230 kV to S00-kV operation. od finns due to sulfur oxide emission limitations. TVA's coal supdy storage increased from less than 5 Million tons to more Testimony i than 14 Million tons by the end of 19,o. t nere is considerable uncertainty about the availability of the quanety of coal which *Mr. Stanley Ragone, Senior Vice President. Virginia Electic may be required to comply with environmental regulacons. Power Company, provided testmony to the U.S. Senate

Commerce Commmee on the Nanonal Petroleum and Chairman of the Southeast Region of NAPSIC and NaturalGas Conservacon and Coal Subsatunon Act of 1975. SERC TAC. Other liaison members monitor and promote Mr. Shearon Hams, President CP&L made the focowing coordination of reliability with adjacent Councils. contacts: As of 1975. there were approx 2mately 158 people involved January 27 with Representaeve Al Ullman to h in acuvines of SERC. l

          .sinvestment ax credits.                                   -

2. On February 20 a Congressional Staff bnefing on Capital Formation. Member Organizations as of December 31,1975

3. On March 21 a White House conference on the Alabama Bectric Cooperative. -

present uv ef coal and certain problems with meeting the prog d requirements- Alabama Powa Co Big Rivers BecmeCorp

4. On May; ath Vice President Nelson Rockefeller on Carclina Power & Ught Co financng problems facng the elecmc utility industry. .

l S. On May 13 with Frank Zaro to discuss the Cnsp County PoweComn appropnateness of Federal aid to elecmc utilities. DukeErowerCo Merida Power Corp Mr. Harns was eleced Chairman of the Board of Directors Rorida Power & Light Co i of Eecmc Power Research Inscrute on May 27for a two-year Fort Rerce MunicipalPowerSystem term. Gainesville/Alachua County Regional Utines System R. ginna! ( b u am rati- Ge rgaPowerCo GulfPowerCo M:mbership in SERC, formed on January 24,1970, is Henderson MunicipalPowerand Ught open to all power unlities interconnected with the resonal Jacksonville Electric Authonty elecmc network and having a generanng capacty of 25 MW Cty of Lakeland, Rorida or more. p,muipp PowerCo "Ihe Execunve Board, consisung of one representanve from Nantahala Power and Ught Co ecch Mxmber unlity. conducs the atfairs of ti e Counci, with Orlando Utilities Commission venng nghts and CouncI expenses dismbuted in proporuon I to gmeng capacty. Savannah Elecmc and Power Co , Eight Assocate Members represent distnbution Southeastem Power Administration I cooperaeves and mumcpalities having erther no generation 5'outh Carolina Elecmc & Gas Co l South Carolina Public Seruce Authenty ob' thanC has25 MW. Advisory Commmee, consiseng cf a a Technical South Mississippi Eectic Power Assocanon member and an attemate member from each Member Cry of Tallahassee, Florida systtm. Task forces are appointed as needed for specfic Tampa Eectric Co , progets. Representanves from FPC and State Commissions Tapoco, Inc are invited to attend all Counct meetngs, as well as the Tennessee Valley Authenty mretngs of the Joint Execunve Committee. Vero Beach Municpal Power System Ths four Subregions of SERC are Rorida. Southem TVA, Virginia Eectneand Power Co and VACAR. An Admirustraeve Manager has been retained Yao.tdn, Inc l sinesJanuary 1.197L Latson with NAPSIC is through the l p . . 1%. Y , ---Ng:r -aor#4$ .

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           , Humcane Eloise on the moming of September 23,1975,                  pamcpacon in the NERC multi-regonal study and the " Coal caused extensve damage to dismbution and transmissen in                by Wire" study.

eastem Alabama. wester. veorga. and nenhwest Flonda. The 34 members of the Rorida Electric Power ' This was an unusual humcane in that wmds retamed high Coordinating Group (FCG) have incorporated this I ged after moving more than 100 miles over land areas. On une 230-kVline in Alabama there were 14 aluminum V' 7erreg onal coordination t.nder the MAIN-ECAR structures cushed to tne ground. indicanng tomado acdvity. Reliability Coordinanon Agreement was strengthened by There was no " cascading from structure to structure. Service formation of a group consisung of one representative from to most of the smcken areas was restored the same day, but each region to repon to the Review Comrnittee on the complete restoracon required several days. adequacy of the interregional reliability studies being On rebruary 10.1975. the eanh embankment secdon of performed. Under this Agreement TVA and ECAR Alabama PowerCompany s WalterBouldin Dam was representatives are liaison members of the MAIN breached. Damage to projecct works has been esumated at in Transtmsson Study Steenng Cor .mmes. excess of $20 million. The failure resuhed in the loss for an t indefinite eme of peaking capacty of 225 MW: however, a Activities with Regulatcry and Administrative l substantal part of the water is being utihzed at the company's Agencies nearby Jordan Dam. A fire at TVA's Browns Feny Nuclear P! ant resulted in a The SERCJoint TAC State and Federal Execunve long term forced outage of 2.130 MW of especty. TVA's Committee held its seventh and Eighth meetings with generanng reserves were less than desred dunng some excellent attendance and interest. penods of the year and required substantial purchases of The Rorida legislature passed an amendment to allow joint , power from neighbonng utilities. Dunng the spnng of 1975 participation in future generation and transmission facilities by , th re were other forced outages of larger units so that lost investor, municipal, and cooperatively-owned elecmc uclities.  ; gsneracon frequently reached one-third of normal capacty. The Ronda Electne Power Coordinaung Group has arranged ' funding by 12 of the group's utilities of a study of health and Because of this loss of capacty. substantial amounts of energy were moved from east to west in the Southem System, which welfare effects of sulfur oxides to determme whether ambient  ! nicessnated opening 230-kV and 115-kV ties between air standards established by the Clean Air Act are sufficent for i VACAR and Southem for long periods. No disturbances the State of Ronda. FCG condnues to compile and publish resulted from this operacon. In the Rorida Subregon. data from unlites for a Ten Year Site Plan for the Ronda increased rotaung inema from capacty addinens and a Division of State Planmns. i strengthened transmission system have increased ability to TVA has filed a final environmental statement with EPA for j pngmain staole. Disturoances dunng 1975 have been limited to the Hartsville Nuclear Plants and environmental heanngs 1 ihe occasional short-term loss of a unit larger than 500 MW. were conducted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for I those plants. A preliminary safety analysis report was made to < and rapid reeovery with mmimalload shedding has resulted. NRC on the proposed Phipps Bend Nuclear Plant. TVA has The Oconee Nuclear Stanon. composed of three 871-MW  ! undertaken a construction program for the control of ' units supplied 34 percent of Duke Power Company's energy in 1975. The s anon's capacty factor for that year was 66.8 particulate emission and ambient sulfur dioxide levels by I percent. installation of elect ostacc precpitators and tall stacks aided ) In addition to many intraregional power transfers. the by an emission limitanon program. A full-scale expenmental following interregonal power transfers were made: sulfur dioxide scrubber with bypass is being installed on a 550-MW unit for sulfur dioxide and pamculate control. SPP to SERC The first year's biological studies on once-through 2.923.014 MWH SERC to SPP operation at Carolina Power & Ught Company's Brunswick 2.356.082 MWH Plant showed that the impact of intake water withdrawn for ECAR to SERC 7,717.188 MWH once-through cooling may be substannally less than SERC to ECAR anticipated by NRC. Accordingly. CP&L has reouested 740.504 MWH delays from all apprognate agencies of construenon of cooling MAAC to SERC 30.605 MWH towers until a more conefusive impact evaluation with SERC to MAAC 346.135 MWH two unit operanon can be completed. CP&L received National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPCES)

                ' MAIN to SERC                                               penmts om            A f r us Robnsoa Bnmck & Fean 4'321.327 MWH                                                                                   l SERC to MAIN                             462,458 MWH         and Weatherspoon Plants. In October.1975 the State of                  I North Carolina was delegated NPDES authonty and will issue             ;

Comminee Activities permits for other CP&L plants. EPA. in cooperation with TVA I in the States of Alabama. Kentucky. and Tennessee, is Conunuing an annual practee. the SERC-TAC Executve prc ranng NPDES perrnits. South Carolina Elecme & Gas Committee met with system planning engineers of the four Comoany received NPDES permits for two plants and EPA Subregens on December 4.1975, and reviewed plans for approval of waste treatment schemes at these plantseThe generation and transmission in detail. Reserves then predicted future buming of oil at CP&L s Sutton P! ant was prohibited for later years were not deemed to be sufficient to pavide the by FEA in July 1975, and these units now bum coal. liitbility and adequacy of power supply expected in the past An ancent geologeal fault which was discovered in the or three of the four Subregions. but these lower reserves p wer block excavation for the Shearon Hams Plant in 197*, risulted primanliy from inao' ility of the memeer systems t was successfully analyzed in 197c. and the fault shown to be finance construccon of generanng resources. Studies were at least 150 Mi!! en years old. NRC has agreed that this fauh is made of interregional operations to determine interchange no longer a safety issue.

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             ,7 T                         P.O. BOX 5637 LIHLE ROCK. ARKANSAS 72205 (501) 664 0145
                      ~                  B.C. HULSEY, EXECt.TWE DIRECTOR

( \. ^ REPORT TO NATIONAL A CCTRIC REL!ABIUlY COUNCIL BY Southwest Power Pool "If Congress really toants to get oil and gas out much less reserves than that called forin the SPP Plannng frcm underthe utility boiler, it should consider Cnteria. An example of the latteris explained in the icilowmg licansing and emission control amendments that taill repott by ths Chairman oi the Transmission / Planning Task enable this industry to do the job in a healthy and Forcer saf2 manner at the lancest reasonable cost to the Reserve generatng capacty heretofore mamtanned in the-consumer, and not mandate an expensive and questionable conversion program. Southwest Power Pool region has been adequate, as is evidenced by the fact that no ! cad has been du.wd or peak l William McCollam. Jr., shaving methods employed dunng past years. ! Chairman,SPP Capacty problems are not anticpated through the 1978 peak season. Additions made in 1974-1975 and scheduled 6 rough 1978 were made and planned on the bass of l Significant Factors Affecting Bulk PowerSupply considerably higher peak load forecasts than were The systems in SPP serve in all er parts of eightstates. expenenced arid are now bemg made for the same penod. It Dunng 1975. this area expenenced both a mild summer and :s the.refore likely that excess, er at least adequate, capac:ty a mild wmter (through December 31.1975). Consequently. will be available through 1978. ci the four summer menms (June-Sept.). cnly one monthly The impact of presently planned construccon cu6acks will peak was aoove forecast (100.9%) due to belated summer take effectin 1979 and later years. For example, the Middle hsat wave in early September. Margm dunng the peak was Sou6 System announced in mid. year 1975. cancellation of 8.524 cr 27.9% of tne load respenstility. While SPP two nuclear fueled units and delay of a third nuclear unit plus normally prepares only ene load forecast per year, due to two coal fired units. mnounced siippages/cancellat: ens. a specal re-appraisal was ade in August 19 o so as to re-assess Fool reserves. a ne The necessty for these cancellations and delays was fcilowmg reserves in percent of summer peak load attributed to a number of facers. including spnzling inflacon, responsiemry were computei the cost of capital. the cost of environmental requirements, the re-appraisal of elec=c load g owth, and the impact of Summer Peak Period N et W r g m "'. pnce elasecty and conservaten upon energy usage. As a 1976 22.6 result of the failure to receive the necessaryimmediate rate 1977 173 relief. it was subsequently necessary to halt construccen on 1978 17.5 the two delayed coal units and related transmission projecs. 1979 15.5 Resumption of their construccon is scheduied ferJuly 1976, 1980 18.9 but is dependent upon tt:e outcome of pending rate The fellow ng table shows the status (as of 12-31-75) of proceedings and the ability to raise adequate capital funds units rated 150 MW or above (fessi! & Nuc! ear) planned for from other sources. service within the next nine years: The immediate result of these changes in constructen plans l Capeny Addnions-150 MW & Above by the Middle South System is that reserves are decreased Fossil Stum Nclur Stum from 16% to 12% by 1979 and for succeeding years. This 41.n 12 31.n s.t.75 12317s represents a 25% reducion of reserves considered desirable Ystr Unas MW Units MW Units MW Units MW iib 2 # ud mve Wwexe m be @uate. TM q 19 .I # I$ - - - - significant reduct:en in reserves can have a decidedly adverse h3 3 5 5 I 950 l 950 af fect on bulk power system reliability in this area. Should 1979 6 3035 9 4450 - - - - presently halted constructen not be resumed according to 1990 7 3351 7 3471 1 1250 1 1250 plan there will be a funher substannal dec ease in reserves

       ;981       4       1550 3      1050       2    2105      2    2105 already considered too low and. by 1979. reserves will be less I9 9   $j          j$          j$         3 3f50                  ban ne.th:rd of those formerly planned and considered 1964       4       1040   5    25A0       1     11M      1     1250  adequate.

54 24.590 53 24.564 9 9.975 9 9.545 This situacon will. ifload develops as exceced, deg ade reliability and adequacy of service by 1979 to levels below Frem the above, while some units were cancelled since any expenenced in recent emes. Should this occur. no Apnl 1.1975. other units have been moved back and some remecies w.!! be available on short notice, and there will be a f tw and/cr larger units are now planned. the net result is that deficiency of capacty for many future years. Thus, a new aside from annual shifts. accroximately the same total constraint neser previously expenenced will be imposed upon capacty w:i! be added. At the same t:me. some systems have our area's ecencmic recovery and growth- s shortage of lowered their !cng. term ! cad projectens. resulung in elecmcity. Load growth will be forced to accommodate itself ediquate reserve margms for the Pool as a whole. However, to the availability of elecmcal generatng capacity rather than-studies show that a number of systems individually will have the reverse s:tuaton.

'?.I

• gr'pucts in Spp the report, FPC states that by 1982, SPP is expected to have a base load capability consisting of coal-fired and/or nuclear The fuel situation appears equal in imponance to the gencation conssting of 42.2% of the totalinstalled capaczty approaching capacty snortage situacon as far as advase in our opinion. it is impantive that SPP systems be permtted l cffects on reliability and adequacy of semce are concemed. to bum gas or oil in the remaining boders- that will be use' only fuels available to most systems are gas, oil, coal and for intamediate and peaking service-until such time as they ium. Gas, once the major fuel used in the area, is are placed in mandby satus or retired.

v:nishing from the scene as a boiler fuel. An adequate supply of oil as a fuel source is questionable because so much of it needs to be imported from foreign sources. In addition, many Neu Units and Transmission Lines Added in 1975 arguments made against the use of gas as a boikr fuel apply Systems in SPP placed in service the foDowing capacity-equally to the use of oil under boilers. The maior fuels. avadable for unlity use then, both of which have senous Units. TotalMW problems, are coal and uraniurrt FassG-Steam 8 3,350 Westem coalis abundant and meets environmental Combusnon Turtanes. 6 370 requirements in-sofar as em:ssions from its buming are- Diesel- 1. 3 concemed. It is a low-Bru coal. however, so it must be mined tnd transported as economically as possible if it is tobe used. The foBowing miles of HV and/or EHV transmuson were added This means smp mining and transportation by coal sluny dunng the year: - pipeline and/or rail. Opemng of Westemcoal smp mines has Voltage Level C!rcuit Miles Voltage I.evel Circuit Miles-be:n temporanly halted by an injuncton pending outcome of 2233 69 149.4 230 the Sierra Club vs. Secretary Morton suit. Coal shmy 345 250A 115 97.3 pipelines are being vigorously opposed by the railroads. who 138 413.3 500 - provide the only transportanon ahemaeves Unless Federal 161 39.7 legslacon is passed grannng pipelines the nght of ermnent domam. such pipelines will not be permitted to cross railroad Ne intraregional Interconnections-nghts-of-way and consequently they cannot be budt. (This SPP Group A-None will severely hamper and limit the amount of coal used by the SPP Group B Middle South System.) . Ueli: acon of uranium, the sole remaining fuel is also beset Wah ma Gas Mecme Mestem canners Coop with problems. The limited and uncertain level of domestic uranium reserves. coupled with recent tendencies by certam Nd Tap 1 V "A'[. ppliers not to honor exisung contractual obligations to Kar[h&Eecme-Cryof Augusta

      ,., y and process uranium. are senous ones. Exisung                          Augusta Cry 69 kV July 31.1975 uranium contracts extend only into the first half of the 1980's.       SPP Group D Thz problem of spent-fuel storage and spent-fuel                         Southwestem Power Administracon Cry of Spnngfield reprocessing is equally important Presently available                           Sonngneld 161 kV July 7.1975 scent-fuel storage capabdity at existng plants is only adequate          Assocated Eeeme Coop. Empire Dismet E!eeme Co.

for a few years into the future. unless reprocessmg plants of Neosho 69 kV Jan.9.1975 adsquate capacty are soon licensed and made available. This appears a doubtful prospect. and nuclear plants now New Interregional Interconnections Assocated Eecme Coop - lewa Southem Unlices (MARCA) operaung might be forced in the relauvely near future to shut Ottawa 69 kV Sept.10.1975 down unni this spent fuel problem can be resolved. Assocated Seeme Coop - Uruon Cec:nc Co. (MAIN) In view of the above senous capacty and fuel problems,it Bamert 69 kV June 28.1975 is anucpated that the next NERC ten-year fuel survey Missourt Unlines Co. - Urnon Sectnc Co. (MAIN) (1976-1985) will show significant shifts from a similar survey Wedekind 161 kV Sept. 30,1975 issuedin July 1975. In the latter. it was apparent that the use of natural gas had already " peaked". oil was then expected to peak in 1978 and coal was slated to increase dramatically Performance of Bulk Power System - 1975 frem 8.3 mdlions tons in 1975 to 80.9 million tons in 1984. Tornadoes in the Middle South area destroyed 30 500-kV With the cancellacon of some nuclear uruts and deferrments line structures on three EHVlines in late February. At the of other large umts. some systems now plan to install sizable same eme. structures were destroyed on a double circuit numbers of combustion turbines. These changes can (and 230-kV line tnpped off as a result of winds and lightning. undoubtedly wdl) drastically affect SPP's total oil During the height of the storm. 6.000 customers were out of requirements dunng the next decade. service for one hour. By the end of the day, service had been restored to all but 300 customers, and by the end of the week-end, all customers who could use service were restored. 1 Neu. Studies Affecting Bulk Power Supply Tomadoes destroyed two S00-kV structures of the As SPP had about 31.000 MW of capacty using natural Nelson-Richard line resulting in the line bging out from Apnl i gas. oil or both in mid-1975. when it was teamed that the Fort 30 to May 8. High winds caused the outage of the Willow I Worth Regonal Office of FPC planned a study designed to Glen-Franidin and Willow Gien-Richard lines as a result of the I hilect utlity programs for phasing-out the use of natural gas loss of a total of ten EHV structures. One line was restored on l and oil as boiler fuels, the SPP Execueve Committee the 20th and the other on the 24th of May. The ability to J authenzed the Poors Coordination Committee to meet with move power from the Baton Rouge-New Orleans area was l FPC and to offer to submit data and comments. The severely hampered by the simultaneous outage of these two l Comrrnssion has now released Part 1 of a multi part study. In lines; however, by adjustng generation dispatch schedules '

                                                                                      - - - - -            =_                          j

       'and pionn:d transmission mamtenance sch:dulss. th2

, systems were able to operate sausfactonly through this penod Testimony Before Congressional Committees On June 12th. Mr. Wi!!iam McCollam. Jr., Chairman of houp! la oma . West Arkansas N. E. Texas. Texas SPP testified before the Senate Public Works Committee & a handle . Eastem New Mexico Senate Intener Committee on S.1777. the " Coal Converson hside from forced outages on severallarga units.197S was ein' . Mc McConam pointed out that a conservative estimate rmnvely uneventful On July 24. one of three 138.kV lines to sh ws that SPP systems wculd be required to mend $6.7 Southwestern Power Administraben. Brown was open when a billion if this Bill became law. Over 31.000 MW muld have to l second line tnpped. The OG&E Durant distnct of about 40 be comened. scrapped. enduly abuilt or admd. MW was isolated wnh the 3S MW Denison Hydro unit. On September 24th. Mr. R. O. Newman. Vice Chairman of l Undrrfrequency relays dropped Durant. The hydro umt SPP tesafied before the Sub-Commutee on Energy and. rcmained m service. carrymg some load unti restoration. P wer: Commntee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce on Group C& D . No significant problems. H. R 9464; Othermember systems testifyingincluded Southwestem Public Service Company and Oklahoma Gas.

a. . - .

• i , .n.mit t. i - . .f 4,I, and Electric Company. In addition. Mississippi Power &. Ught-Company submnted a statement for the record.

The Transmission and Planning Task Force has established Southwest Power Pool short ctreuit and stability data banks to ,3 augment the previously established load flow data bank. N '"' ' " Short crcuit. data through 1978 and stability data for ten years Membership in SPP is open to any system which has at has been stored. The informacon will be revised and least one interconnecton at transmission voltage covered by ext:nded on an annual basis. It is available for operating; an sgreementwith another Member of Southwest Power - [ pi nning. and reliability studies by individual Southwest Pool. Membership as of December 31.197S consisted of 34 Power Pool systems and forintra. and inter. regional studies. systems. Kansas C!ry Power & bght Company (SPP Group C) General management and direction of affairs. func:fons and repons that it has completed a stability study for latan # 1 busmess of Southwest Power Poolis handled by a unit. scheduled for commercial operanon in the Spnng of 15. member Bot rd of Directors. 1980. The unit (and systeml proved to be stable for the . An Executive Committee (consisung of the Chairman. Vice sssumed entena. Studies connnue within Group C for Wolf Chairman and three elected members) acts for the Board of Cresk Nuclear. Jeffrey Energy Center and laran. Directors in the intenm between meenngs of the full Board On September lith. system representanves from Kansas which meets at least twice each year. An Annual Meeting is and Westem Missoun met with planners from Nebraska held each year at which time officers are elected as well as five RCA) to discuss future expanssort plans as well as present new members to the Board of Directors.

           . future problems.                                               SPP has a Coordinanon Commmee consisung of a

( memberfrom each membersystem. A numberof standing subcommittees have been appointed and from tme to time. l Ad Hoc Task Forces are selected as needed for special l Under the authenty of the Federal Water Pollucen Control projects. Act Amendments of 1972. Region VI of the U.S. SPP reached a peak load responsibility of 30.5S6 MWin Environmental Protecnon Agency (EPA) issued permits for early September 1975. 2.535 MW under forecast. A net w:ste discharges from Michoud. Paterson and Market St. margin of 27.9% was available dunng the peak. This was the l Stanons effecnve A casi 8.1975 The permits allow present i first September peak in the 34. year history of Southwest 6scharges to connnue to the ad;acent waterways untilJuly 1. PowerPool 1977, arter which the permits call for the concentracon levels l of certain matenals being discharged to be reduced. / 7 In order to comply with the requirements. it will be n:cessary for New Orleans Public Service Inc to install ((y' -/ I trestment equipment and make maior modifications. Under d, tha t:rms of the permit. New Orleans Public Service Inc fumished to the EPA by December 31.1975 conceptual

                                                                                                            ^

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                                                                                   ,                                3 designs for the facilines necessary to achieve compliance.                              '
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Ahtr approval by the EPA. detailed plans will be prepared and contracts awarded with construccon scheduled under the l' f, M permit to begm by June 30.1976. Complenen of facilities is

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                                                                                                                      .f      ifg sch:duled by March 31.1977. and attainment of the                                                    "    /j g               c#      -

i permmed operational levels of discharges are required byJuly 1.1977. According to law the permits are valid for a pened of h \ 4 .s{ ,

five years and applications for renewal will be required pner . l. ' " to th2 expiracon date of Apnl 7.1980.. ~ W1/4[ In additon to the coordination with Federal Power 4

                                                                                                                     ,d      O Commission. representanves of SPP's Coordinacon                                                               N fmittee met with representatives of the General                                                     n
    < sounnng Office-Dallas on November 1213 in Lttle Rock to discuss the FPC mandate to encourage interconnectons. A follow up session was scheduled in Dallas in mid-February                    _

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u+ ~ 43 1976. The SPP continues to work closely with the various st~ t2 commissions. "- -' endpj'j. -"- - f - - - -

( List of Members. December 31.1975 Kansas Gas and Eec:ncCo Kansas Power & Ught Co(Thel Loumana Power & Ught Co Assocated Eec:nc Cooperatve th=5-- Power & Ught Co Arkansas See:nc Cooperaeve Corp MissouriEdison Co Amansas-Missouri Power Co MissouriPower & Ught Co ' Arkansas Powerand Ught Co Missourt Pubne Senace Co Board of Public Udines Kansas Cry, Kansas MissouriUGtks Co Cen:ralKansas PowerCo. New Orleans PublicSence. Inc CryofChanute OklahomaGas and Sec:ncCo Cryof CoffeyvGe PubucSenace Company of Oklahoma. CryofWinfield- StJoseph Ught&Powe-Ca Cemral Loumana See:ncCompany, Inc Southwestem Eec:ic PowerCo Cty Power & Ught Department Southwestem Power Adrmruscanon Cry Ut!ites of Spnng6eid Southwestem Public Senace Co EmpireDisme:Sec:nc Co SuntlowerSee:nc Cooperaeve Grand River Dam Authonty Westem Farmers EecmcCooperanve Guif States Ustes Car Westem PowerDivmon-Central KansasCry Power &UghtCo Telephone & Usines Corporanves

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P.O. BOX 840 DENVER, COLORADO 80201 W* S C C J.L McKINLEY, EXECURVESE.C (303) 322-4034 BORT TO NATIONAL EECTRIC REUABIUTY COUNCIL BY Western Systems Coordinating Council "Gromth forecasts of peak loads and energyfor as of the end of 1975was 92,498 MW, an increase of 5,386 the year 1975 generally have not been met although MW (6.2%) overthe previo':s year. The fo!!owmg table nearly all subregions of WSCC reflect increases over includes the compov.:cn of the generating resources at the theyear1974 which topped the previous year. That- end of 1975 and the changes made dunng the yenc. these requirements were successfully met with no Genrenne R=awean, majorproblems is to me a significant emim um im o.s e ?

                                                                                          " ~                " ~ "            " "

accomplishment which should be shared by all u,,, membersystems of WSCC " g_ p y,3y,,* he, Manas, M 2.268 M 2.5 M 9:3 i.4eo o Chairman. WSCC w 41.866 44 4 " .8:3 9 i2E o l l The Westem Systems Coordinaeng Counc! (WSCC), organized in August 1967, is the pioneerrefiabdity council of 15"# r .mo

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2:2 o 3 a-377 .in o-i th2 nine such regional counc!s composmg the Nanonal Ehcric Reliability Counc!. It is the largest in area, covenng i c,,,, y r g  ; o l c x: u 2o. i o o nearly 1.6 million square mdes which represents more than ""' rs ao o o o reo one-half of the connguous land area of the United States and ** #' '"" "** " " '" serves a populanon of approximately 38 mi!! ion people in all 2.~". ~." Tf.".~.~. ~." ",1" '""'Fe'".'" or parts of the fourteen westem states and Entsh Columbia, " " " " ' " l Canada. It is the second largest of the counc! sin generatng resources and in peak lead. The widespread concentrauens of Transmission natural resources and of populous areas impose many unique Bulk power transmission added during the year 1975

      - tallenges among its member systemsin providing a high        included 2,394 circuit miles consistng of 1,230 miles of l  fcgree of seif-reliance and coordination affec:ng the               115/161 kV,581 miles of 230 kV,398 mdes of 287/360 kV l      adequacy and reiiability of the bulk power resources.          and 185 miles of 500 kV. Deferred bulk power transmission Tne impacts of draste conservacon measures and of          included 36 miles of 115/161 kV,470 mdes of 230 kV and soco-economicinfluences connnued to reflect subnormal          182 miles of 500 kV.

growth pattems dunns 1975. The WSCC non-coinedental Disturbances peak hour for 1975 was 63.683 MW which occured in July for the th:rd successive year reflec:ing a summer peak hour in The WSCC region was relatively free from senous system an histone winter peaking region. This peak hour was 8.9% d stureances dunng 1975. Two bombings of the same under the forecast but 3.9% over the peak hour of 61,274 substation on the Pacfic Gas and Electne system on March 2,< MW which occurred in June 1974. and April 8.19 to caused ou ages to 34,000 and 22,000 The average energy for 1975 was 43.749 MWH compared customers, respecwely, for penods extending from three to l ' with the forecast 46.823 MWH (-6.6%) and the average twelve hours. Various other threats of bombings of cnergy for 1974. 43,739 MWH. transassion Une towers have been made in the same area. Surplus energy became avadable in the Northwest for An unusual disturbance on March 21,1975 was started by export to the Pacfic. Southwest area on February 13,1975, the failure of a current transformerlead which relayed the AC fuDy loading the coastal inten:es to Califomia and connnuing source to de nenhem termusin Gegon oMe 8N K throughcut the year in varying amounts with minimum .ine t L s Angeies. (Calilo-Sylmar DC u, ne.) The failure of a dslivenes occumng dunng August and September. Tne total rcuit intended to me generation resulted in the transfer of transfer of energy south in terms of equivalent ruel oil saved the DC schedule of 1,391 MW south to the two o00 kV wcs approximately 33.3 million barrels, of wruen coastal intertes already loaded with a 1,800 MW schedule approximately 24.8 million barrels represented transfers of south. An out-of-step condition then resulted which dropped surplus energy. The exchange of energy dunng the year was generacon and separated the Northwest and Rocky Mountain 20 mdlion MWH south vs.1.5 million MWH north. Areas as intended from the CaHfemia-Nevada-Anzona-New Fuel suoplies were adequate dunng 1975. Gas availability Mexico systems in which 1,665 MW ofload was drooped on continued to dechne and was replaced with oil as necessary underfrequency affectng 1.300,000 customers for from four with the increased dependance on od not significantly to sixteen minutes. In this case, the fadure,of the first level of affectng the availability of generanng capacty. Adequate coal protecton required that three other levels of protecton storage prevented extended curtadments of coal-fired perform successfully this was accomplished. There were hnerston wnde supplies were temporanly intenupted for nineteen reportable disturbances to FPC dunng 1975. vanous causes in some areas. Public Information The prinopal accomplishment of the Public Informanon Gsnerating Resources Committee has been the preparation of a "WSCC Facilines-The total of electne power generating resources of WSCC Brochure," a pamphlet which will be available for general

dismbJion earty m 1976 and which will includ2 an histencal ** Ca ='d Da= ca===av gglarwon. the organ:zanon of its committees, the lists of m;mber systems and affiliate members, a map and vanous

                                                                              ~ M " """

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                                                                       ,"',"',,",,"g,'"g^y tabias and charts that will provide generalinformation onWSCC. Pu== s.=.c.no.nv wc The facsimile and voice communicanon system between pal operanons, control centers becomes the instant gsg can-y#'         c. .

puo N. i e c ca ,

      ..Whod for the disseminanon of news among public                QN*c,,l d gc y information representanves under established procedures          Puge so id Penwr and Ley. Conwy          .

whenever a significant disturbance occurs. This provides for s T.,,L"""*'**v 0'"'" the telease of tmely and uniform informanon to the news s.a o so c .nd o.orie conwy media on major disturbances D,7,,,,*g 's' '** C Regional Organization t"c"*.",'g"y;7"g _L'e"' A significant change was made in the organizational I,"C'o",",,,,,,,,, , p ,gg,,,,,,, c,4,,, structure of WSCC dunng 1975 which has established a high ns-cua on level Administrative Commmee. composed of the Council DlDd t,,""c.' *'

                                                                                               ".n,""

Chairman. Vice Chairman. Immediate Past Chainan and the ****ny.iWww Po rConionny Secetary-Treasurer. This commmee will act on such matters *["j"*"" " " ' ' ' * ' " " * ' " ' as may be necessary between scheduled meetngs of the ana tc.,a Execunve Commmee. These meetngs have been reduced in c

                                                                      $",""c,,., ,     .n$          w,,,,,,p,,

number from quarterfy to three annually. Coincdental with c== 4 o.no no 2. ca , m.a this change the Execunve Secetary was appointed.

                                            .                         Mia-'g, tag Administratve Manager and given overall management                 Lae. c.v w responsibilines of the Counclinc!uding the supervision of the      M"g*'* ^"*"'r WSCC Technical Staff and the accounnng procedures                  ha$n, c w relinquished by the Secetary-Treasurer as well as the dunes D""cMc# w of the Execunve Secetanj. The Technical Staffis responsible        se c s c.,a for maintaming the WSCC data bank m suffic:ent detail to prouce for making and evaluating studies over any ensuing         Liaison tin-vear penod under vanous load condinons.

Tfie organizaconal diagram shows the functional WSCCdid not make formal appearances before commmees. subcommmees. and work groucs to which nearly c ngressional and other committees as a Counct but many hundred dedicated people from WSCCMember statements were made to these commmees by the Execunves

         . ems lend their voluntary efforts as required. One            f Member Systems appeanng on behalf of their utlines. The rzprssentanve from each Member Svstem is eligible for             pracnce was continued of inuting appropnate representanves appemtment to the Counci and to e'ach of the four Standing        of the State regulatory commissions and of the t ederal Power Commmees Planning Coordination. Operanons. Public                 Commeston to meenngs of the Standing Commmees and to Informanen and Environmental.                                     the Annual Meenng of the Counc! Representanves of the Federal Power Commission, the Colorado and Califomia Cwncil Memliership                                                PUC's. the Forest Service and FEA accepted invitanons and
     ~The membership of WSCC consisted of 44 Member                  attended the Annual Meenng of the Councl. Liaison with the Systems and 13 Affiliate Members at the end of the year 1975      adlacent reg 1 nal c uncl. MARCA. was strengthened in a terzsenting a gain of one Member System. the reinstatement        meecng f planning and operating representatives of both of a " charter member." the City of Colorado Spnnss.             c un is which was dedicated to data repomng procedures.

Colorado. and the loss of one Affiliate Member by Chairman Walkeraddressed the Seventy.first Regular resignanon. the Plumas. Sierra Rural E!ectric Cooperative. Meenng of the Rocky Mountam Coal Mining insntute at Inc. of Portola. Califomia. The Member Systems include Steamboat Spnngs. Colorado. on June 30.1975. The subject nmsteen investor-owned unlines. nine municcal unlines. of his talk was "Who Really Knows About Energy." Mr. elsven puolic power systems three govemmeital agencies. Walker will serve on an advisory committee that will provide and two Canadian systems. The Afhliate Memt'ers represent guidance for a study funded by NRC and directed toward nms municpal unlines. three cooperanves and ene PUD. evaluanng the impacts of a " Nuclear Moratenum" that would Tha list of these systems follows: affect nuc! ear projects in twenty.three states. The Westem  ! Interstate Nuc! ear Board (WINB) will collaborate with the 1 2,'O',5,C,""ob Livermere Laboratones on this study project. The impacts of I

   *=ea. Puer sea = coa'o.av                                        a Federal Nuclear Moratorium on the west and of                 l C*
                            ,"'**"V                                 moratoriums being promoted in the separate states will be M"p*,",",.C,';.,*,d smacounem a                      Paa ^.a==v                      evaluated. Also. WINB will study nuclear plant planning and
   $1**     #s "J".=^=='a o,"n,1 ".,                                   siting problems under a grant from NRC. WSCC will be co-o.v                                                           represented. The results of this study are expected to suggest c         nyyena                   '

interstate and federal-state cooperative mechanisms for a r. on= con o.av planning and decision-making. M The Chairman anended a meeung held in Denver. /g,*g*",,U.E""c5 o-agoa'go,,,,,,g,,,

                 ,,                                                 Colorado on June 23-24 which was devoted to some of the
   %,,,,,,,,.n     , o,,,nnes     a cs.-                            many facets surrounding Nucleat Energy Centers. It was Moatn. P n.e, Con o.a4 co. sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

E7,*C',",%*c77.,,,'""" National Governors Conference Energy Project and Nanonal

l i F, werence of Stat 2 Legs!atures Energy Policy Protect. 1 RP907-2. "Long-Term Dynarmes. Digital Simulanon."

• Eancog."secIo-econcmic and soco pciiocalimpacts were by General Elecmc. -

2. RP9(M 2," Development of Coherency Based Dynamic l

, 3ns,dered. Several representaeves of Member Sys: ems Eqwvaients as an Aid for System P.annmg " by Systems l l -ended the Nudear Energy Center Werkshop sponsored by

   .             r Regulatory Cemrmsson in Washingen. D.C..                Control. Inc.                                                          i
   )ct        , 1 22.1975.                                            The " Loop Flow" Problem

, Nuciecr Moratnrium Impacts FoDowing the appointment of an "executve level" ad hoe i

       !! is cenam that in 1976 Nudear Meraronum Imnat:ve-            committee to guide funher consideraoon of the loop flow                 '
  'ecuens w:Il be on the bauet in at least four westem states -       problem. the decson was made to con:nue studies of                            i i

, :alifemia. Oregen. Washingon, and Ccierado. The petten short-range as well as of long-range tenns. De westem loop l t Califorma, identhed as Proposeen IS. wEl be voted en is the transtmsson system extendng along the Pacfic Coast.

une 8.1976 and will be the first mass piebtsete on nudear from Washingen and Oregen south through Califemia and.

l ower. !!would guarantee fu!! compensaton to the public on through An:ena. Utah, and Idaho back to the Northwest. l Whout lim:t for any nudear accident and could result in The Operations Comm:ttee completed studies of near-term

  ,cstng nudear units in Califemta being reduced to 60%               operaung problems affectng the pened 1976-1977and apacty w thm five years witn new units banned and to 10%          published a report late in the year. Le P.anning Commrttee scac y by 1956. The petten in Washingen would permit              m!1 have ready a drait of its " Third Loop Fiew Progress
   ,e dev icement et three nucear umts at Fanterd.                    Repen" early in 1976. The expenenced loep tiows and l

Vashmgen, for which the Washmgen Public ?cwer Suppiy ante: pated long-term (1984) loop tiews that wi!! reverse in yst m holds preiiminary perm:ts, but no other nudear cirecton with scheduling on the order of 800 MW dockwise wejecs ceu!d be authen:ed. vs.500 MW counterdockuse are significant of a problem which must be solved by contamment er centrol 3L\1 Elvetric Utilitv Course New Guides An Eacnc Unlity Course jemdy sponscred by WSCC.

   ' :ison Eec=c Instrute (EEI) and Sureau of Land                        One of the mest sigmncant accomplishments of the WSCC insgement (SLM) was conduced in Phoemx. An:cna the                Relay Werk Grouc was the publishmg of a mdely aedatmed vek ci Novemcer 3-7.1975. On the opening day. Mr.                bocklet entted "Underfrequency Lead Sheddng Re!ay vaiker made the pnncpal address explaimng the vancus                Applicaton Guide." This effort was cireced toward tne

ec:ves and acemees ciWSCC. More than twenty persons coercinacon cf Icad sheddng prac:ces and the desgn ci i em Msmeer Systems of WSCC tock pan by becommg more equitable underfrequency lead shedding progams among the WSCC systems in specSed Icad areas.

l vacers and 'ec arers en the many problems assocated

      -t@ s:eng and bu:Iding of generatngstamens and                       A "WSCC Statement on Power System Stabilizers" was

! rans.. ssion !ines partcuiariy where public ! ands are adopted eaAjin the year. l nvolved. Tms " Course" was well anended by representa ves WSCC' .n. Year Coordinaied Plan 4 tru several state BLM cfhces It was conduded that the key i The second editen of the "WSCC Ten-Year Coordnated veciam ts "commumcacen" both witntn the BLM P!an Summary - 1975-1984" was published in May and rean:cacon and between SLM and industry. net just on 5c5cs as ansmg. but as an en-scing exchange of updated centnues to be weil received as a conese subs tute fer most of the centent of the WSCC repert. " Reliability and

          >cedures and tne dscicsures cf preieced plans by the Adequacy of $!eeme Serwcef' FFC Docket R.362. Order No.

' ndusty fer the locaten of generatng resources and 383 3. It concluces a number of taculacens charts. dagams. ranstmss:en and dismbuten lines. This " Course" was so and etherinformaten tnat more clearly present some of the

   -uccessful that a s:milar presentacen has been suggested for ne U.S. Forest Service, as represented in Westem United            preciems as well as an analytcal analysis of pregess I                                                                        assocated with the moderate range planning of generanen g,3, I                                                                        and transmission fac!! es.

l Seminar. Envir nmental Activities Two sermnars en Locs cf Lead Probability Tecnmques The focus of the WSCC Snvtrenmental Ac:vey has been LOL?) were conduced dunng the year. cre in San C ancsco. Califemia and ene in Pertand. Oresen. botn of on an evaluacen cf its past programs and en a centnumg ! effert toward an annual update en new environmental ! wh:ch were highly successful The leaders were two techmcal deveicpments. A highly successful meetng at the expenanced instrucers frem Member Systems. The Califorma instrute of Technciogy dunng March 1975 inandance induced more than eighty operateg and piannmg prowded the latest inferrnaten on enwrenmental matters of r pareccants from WSCC Member Systems. A semmar en interest to the mdusty and emphas;:ed the need of a

Fewer System Stabilizers is bems planned fer 1976. Also the techmcal update in each subsequent year. Panning is in Wesum Ccnference of Public Serwce Cerr=ussions has progress for a similar meetng in Ccierado State Un

vers:ty announced an " Energy Semmar" scheduled fer Feeruary canyin 1976. An evaluacon was made of the results of four '

t-5.1976. in which WSCC will take pan by prewding tne vaned enwrenmental pregams presented in the years 1973 pregam for one cf the two days. and 1974 based en responses to a questenna:re that was sent The book "Pewer System Operscon" by Rocert H. Miller,

      @    b is soenscred by WSCC. centnues to be weil received.         to all who had been inuted to attend or had attended. The j

slable to allin the elecmc power and atied fields en a positen acprevais received wi!! result in the contnuaten of i l-l WSCC order form at a specallow pnce. programs that wt!!!nte-face w:th enwronmentav conserva::enist gcues. ciuc/busmess organt:scons, !aber, EPRI Restarch Proposals academia. and state gevemments. WSCC has areed to permit 1:mited pamecanen by its The WSCC publicaton. "Snwrenmental Guidelines." nrst i echrucal Staff in two c.r RI. funded researen projec3- pnnted in 1971, is no longer available for ds=buton.

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en . po , WSC.,.  %,q % w .,,i s,..n ,' The National Electnc Reliacility C0uncil (NERC) was formed in 1968 witn the stated purpose: -

               .further to augment the REUASIUTY and ACEQUACY cf bulk power sucoly :n the electnc utility systems of North America." It consists of nine Regional Reliacility Councils and encompasses essentially all of the power systems Of the United States and tne Canacian systems in Ontano, Sntish                                                                ,

Columcia, Manitcca and New Stunswick. - REUA81UT/ a. d ACECUACY are two.secarate but intercecencent ascects retating to the cuik power succly system of the e!ectnc utility incustry in Norin America. REUABluTY involves the secunty of the interconnected transmiss:en r etworx and the avoicance of uncentrolled cascw:ng tncouts wnict. may resuit in wicescread cower .. outages. ACECUACY refers to naving surfic:ent generating cacacility to ce acte at all t:mes to meet the aggregate eiectnc peak loads of all custcmers ano succly all their electnc energy recuirerr. ants. , k . J

! i STN & NMU AL REsflEW .

       ,                                                                                                                                                                  l l                   of Overall Reliability and Adequacy of                                                                                                          l l                 the IVorth American Bul!: Power Systems i

t i i i i I l I I i l l l Table of Contents l Commentary .. . .. .. . . 3 l Adequacy of Elede Power Supply . . . .. 5 I Issues Affecting Future Transmission Network Reliability . . 10 Regulaccry and Financial Impacts on Future Bulk Power Supply Adequacy and Reliability . . . .. .14-Appendices-Listing of Titles . .15 _ _ _ . . . . . _ . _ _ l I en e eum a i

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            ,.-     "I FOB 5 WORD The National Electnc Reliability Council (NERCL                           the purpose of " reviewing on a continuing basis the-formed by the electnc utility industry in 1968 and in-                         overall reliability and adequacy of the North American-l                corporated in 1975. directs its etYorts to augmenting                          bulk power systems as existing and planned among i                the reliability and adequacy of bulk powersupply of the-                       and withirr the' NERC regions."

electnc unlity systems in North America. NERC con- Analyses by the Subcommittee. in its review, were-sists of nhe regional councils whose memberships based on in-depth discussions with representatives of comprise essentially all of the electnc utility systems in each of the nine regional reliability councils. an ap-the Uruted States and the Canadian systems in Ontano, praisal of the industry's plans and commitments for Bntish Columbia. Manitoba and New Brunswick. future bulk power system facilities, and an assessment The governing. body of NERC is the Board of "Rus- of the potentialimpact of recent legislation and various. tees, which consists of two representatives of each re- regulatory policies on the ability of the total electric j gional counctl. plus such addinonal members as neces- utility industry to provide an adequate supply of e!sc-

   ,            sary to assure at least two representatives from each                          tnc power for the future. The conclustons and recom-j            segment of the electric utility industry; i.e.. Investor-                      mendations in this report are the culmination of these owned. Federal. Rural Electric Cooperative. and                                analyses and reflect the expertise. judgment, and in-Municipal / State. Meenngs of the Board of Trustees are                        terpretations of the Subcommittee.

attended by observers designated by the Secretary of In addition to a review of vanous issues from an i the Department of Energy (U.S.) and the Chairman of overall viewpoint. there are included in the Appen-the National Energy Board (Canada). dices general assessments of reliability and adequacy i The NERC Board of '&ustees. in October 1970. for each of the nine regional reliability counctis within

created a permanent Interregional Review Subcommit- NERC. and discussions of issues of specific concertr to ten within the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) for each council, l

i 1 Interregional Review Subcommittee _ _ _ Asst. Vice President Bulk "}ansmtssion Planning AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER SERV!CE CORP. l E. L. Williams. W. F. Retnke-Manger. Engineering De3tgn & Deve6cpment Manager. Production & Transmission P!anning HOUSTON UCHTING AND POWER CO. DUKE POWER CO. I W. Darkee M. M. Riggs Manager of System P!anning Director. system Planning Department ATLANTIC CITY ELECTRIC CO ARKANSA3 POWER & UGHT CO. G. H. Apptogren M. D. whyte System Pfanning Manager Manager of Electnc System Planning COMMONWEALTH EDISC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EDISON CO A. W. Benkusky W. R. Bossh ar General Manager. Environ. & Govt. Activiues Dept. Past Chairman N APSIC NORTHERN STATES POWER CO. SONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION t G. C. Loehr W. D. Brown. Exec. Vice President Engineenng Manager D. R. Nevtus. Staff Engineer NORTHEAST POWER COCRDINATING COUNCIL L V. Leonard. Staff E..qtneer N ATION AL EI.ECTRIC REUAB!UTY COUNCIL 2

l Commentary f Overall, the bulk power supply systems of the total adequate supply of elec=icity is vital to the economic elec=ic utdity indus=y in the United States. and in and personal well-being of the people of the United ( those four systems in. Canada elecmcally intercort- States,andt mh nected with systems in the United States, are adequate ne " work horse" generating unit of every eleenic at the present time. They can be operated reliably utdity systent is the base load unit. which is designed to l under a wide range of conditions. NERC definitions of operate full time, whenever it is available. Prier to this l " reliability" and " adequacy" are ctred on the NERC decade. te utility industry had the option of installing map. conventional generating units using any of five types of The present bulk power supply system has oeen de- " fuel ~: hydro, gas, oil, coal. or nuclean depending on v: loped over many years hy the elecmc utility indusc7 which types were avadable and which were evaluated through innovative engineering efforts which captured. as the most economical choice. Little opportunity re-economic opportunities to expand the interconnected. mains.to develop any new large hydro sites. consuuc-

 =ansmission network to its present state. While bas-       tierr of new gas-fired units has been prohibited. and ically the transmission network was designed to            new base-load oil-fired units w"culd be in opposition to minimize the amount of installed generating capacity       govemmental policy to reduce the nation's reliance on re.qu: red to provide overall reliabdity and adequacy. it  imported oil. Hence. the only two remaining options for has also . proven to be capable of mitiganng the impact    base load generation are coal-fired and nuclear units.

of vanous local and national energy emergencies. NERC believes that the current peak electric load l The exisung installed generating capacity. compared growth projections for the non decade assume an in-to the presentload requirements. results in an amount creasing impactofload conservation. which reflects the of generatmg capacity over and above that seictly re- industry's recent peak load experience and the growing quired to meet acceptable adequacy criteria. His ex- awareness and concern on the partof thepublic forthe etss is the result of the elec=ic peak loads experienced need for conservation. Furthermore. we believe that dunng the past several years being below de forecasts conservatiert will be an important factor in minimmng made in the early 1970's while new generating plants. the: need for additional power supply facilities. How-previously committed and bared on those trecasts. even even with this anticipated conservation efforr. ad-were near completion and were placed in commercial ditional generaung capacity must be installed--from optration. Howeven this excess has provided compen- 25.000 to 30.000 MW per year over the next decade-- sating benefits: greater flexibuity in the operation of if we are to maintain a reliable and adequate bulk ths system: peaking generating units--many of which power supply system. rcquire high-cost distillate oil as a fuel--are opemted There are those who believe that such renewable less; and additional opportunities are available to dis- energy sources as solar. wind. biomass. etc. are alter-place ed and other high-cost fuels by transfer of power- nauves to additional coal-fired or nuclear gentriung among systems. plants. At best. between now and the year 2000. these ne overriding concerns of NERC at this time. how- can only be considered as modest supplements even ever. are the discernible and riisturbing trends which assuming vigorous developments of technologies ~ potnt to a future bulk (electic) power supply system which are sull in the laboratory and demonstration i which will be un1ble to maintain an adequate and reli- stages.

• hey are not yet viable alternanve options to l able elecmc power supply for the United States--a re- supplant the need to install new coal-fired and nuclear l quirement which NERC believes is essential to maintain generating units in the foreseeable future, a viable economy and to provide for the well-being of The efforts to co.t;9te those coal-fired and nuclear society. generating units now unir construction are being

     ~'he disturbing trends are the result of the tremen -   thwarted at every step. Furth3rmore, securing regula-dous uncertainties of the future and are the outgrowth     tory approvals to site new generating units and trans-of a number of developments over the past reveral          mission lines necessary for the future may be impossi-

! ysars: rapid increases in the prices of all fuels: infla- ble in some areas of the country, and is rapidly becom-tionary pressures which have escalated the cost of con- ing a major problem everywhere. strucung new facilities: the proliferation of. and often In view of the recent accident at the Three Mile Is-connienng, stnte and Federal regulations: the persis- land nuclear plant. it is apparent that the approvals for tent opposinon to th9 siting of any type of new generat- the construction and operation of nuclear plants wdl be ing umt and new transmission lines: and perhaps more even more difHcult. The opposition to nuclear plants importantly. no clear recogninon by the public that an includes those at one extreme who would stop all

                                                                                                                      'I

             .l furth r construcdon and dismantle all present nuclear units. Considering that nuclear currently supplies        Therefore we condude that from a reliability and ade-about 14% of the nation's electric energy needs---        quacy standpoint it is essenual that there be a viable-tauclear program.

ex'pscted to increase to 28% within the next decade---were this energy source to be foreclosed. Ther.y are many impediments to the construction l th'ra would be serious reliability problems. im- program for new ccal-fired and nuclear generating mediately increasing in severity each year. This would units. and. ic is urgent that'these impediments be re- ' rcsult in shortages in generatmg capacity and severe moved to minimize the impact of what now appears to l long-t:rm curtatiments or ratientng of electric energy. be an inevitable future shortfall in electnc generanng Liss extreme positions would ban the construction of capacity with its attendant negative impact on the

• well-being of the United States and Canada.

n;w nuclear plants. This would. require that almost all ntw gIneraung capacity would need to be coal-fired, An inadequate electric powersupply with extended an option whi .h. shortages of electncity to serve customer needs. is a. if feastble would lead to a near-monopoly dependence on one fuel. From a reliability conditiott this nation has never had to face-even dur-standpoint. this is not a prudent policy. As a further ing wartime. Surely. at a time when the consequences ofinadequacy in other basic energy supply systems are impediment to this 'one fuei" strategy. the sinng of cotl-firsd units is being severely restncted by envi. being realized it is prudent for this nation to do every-renm:ntal regulations. It is neither realistic nor a pru. thing possible to minimize the extent of its impending electric power supply inadequacy. The consequences of dint policy to depend solely on coal-fired units to pro-vida adequate generanng capability for the future, failing to respond to this anuc: pated ensis ought to be unthinkable. 1 1 l s O 4 ) i

I I l I Adequacy af Electric Power SuppIy "'"'""*"* euce me use " a "" oa *", and e"iect,"sc gas to en-ergy produedon (600 billion kWh in 1979). coal-fired and nuclear generating capacty will need to continue to be the main elec-tric power supply sources in the foresee-able future. l l Future electric load requirements The great challenge facing the electric To provide a future adequate and roll- by many groups including tne electric unl- utility Industry today is to provide-able elecmc power supply for the United ity industric When these technologies adr adequate elecmc. service-in the future in States and Canada. it is essencas that elec- vance beyond their current developmental the face of a number of uncertainties. One tne unlities have vtable generadon opdons; state and becomeviable forlarge scale ap- area of particular uncertainty is that ofloed. available amely approvals to allow for the- plicanons. they will be integrated into the growth projecdons-the cornerstone orr com=utment. to the construcdon of new- total energy supply systent and. in time wtuc!r all elecmc power supply planning-generacng facJities and the- conddence. may become an important part of the en- for the- future begins. Future electric en-that once committed. these facilities can be ergy system. Howevec it must be recog- ergy and demand requirements will be de-completed and operated. Because of the nized that the integracon of any new en. ternuned by society and are dependent on long lead-umes associated with the licens- ergy source inta the overall energy supply the economic acdvines and life style of the-ing and construccon of coal-Sred and nu- system requires many years to accom- nacon. cisar generaung plants. commitment to plish. Even assuming a vigorous g.1wth irt In projecung future electric growth. power st;pply programs is required a. dec- the use of these technologies over the next utilities. use the best available mothe-ade or more before a generanng unitis ac- decade or two-possibly as much as dou- clogies to forecast future conditions based. tually placed in service. It must be realized bling their contnbunon to elecmc energy on their perception of current and foresee-that the future is now and that decsions on supply every Sve years-- diese sources at able economie. policcat and demographic t'is construccon of new generaung units best will stil only consatute a small per. trends. These are then translated into pro-must be made today in order to provide for contage in the supply or displacement of jections of future elecmc energy and de-adequate and reliable elecmc F. ,wer sup- elecmety by the year 2000 and. therefore, mand requirements. During the past Sve ply in the late 1980's and earl) 1990's. should only be considered as supplements years. the nation has experienced a Sources of energy other than coal or to convenconal energy sources. Consider. number of events which have had a sign 15-nuclear-suen as solan wind biomass. ing. the prcjected increase in elecmc en- cant influence on the elecme energy sec-etc.-for the producson of elecmcry are ergy consumptierr in the future, which an- ton such as. the economic recession of. under intens2ve research and development timpates a growing conservanen and load 1974-1975. the condnuing high rate of in-1

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[ d C < summery l.. 7d 4 $5W4 .._d.1WYS$E.M [i ' e ADDITIONS BY PRINCIPALFUELSOURCES'

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                                  ' YEAR: peEVuous SUMMER 70 suMMEA                                                                       acmar"Inctuoso camoustian turtune one comomeo cycse cacecnw l

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                                                   ' ' '                                                        BY PRINCIPAL ENERGY SOURCES.. -                                                                                                                                                          -

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  . " E.z~ -. MR:LL:CNS nave en tne use of e ecec::y C.'i [.( [.[ -j h]((5 *                                                                                                                                ;                     3,$.                 'sj                           Ss year tne aggrega:e ;eac loacs                                                                                             !

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                                                                                                                                                          .u:'.;9.                          .;ge.g.7N..m. @r,C=t                                                                       ; - @.. ~                                                              years ferecas::( s.2s. aee i snews ee                                                                                               !

z,.4- .t) 4 .,. q y --7 77~

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             . summer!               ;eas :caa pre;ecuens summit:ed                                                                              .
       '                                                                2.5r ;L W' M;.".                                                          >.                                                     *,/NUCLEAP,-                                                                                          4 2.5 ". '.I
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     - ;]                     p a ,g ,,g 3,j pg dtv 00.mc:!s to the Cepar=.ent :f Energy :n Mr.! 1373.

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                                                                                                                                                                             --      - 1979 /, -                                           , .:

i p r. f 7i* l ..c  : ,,  :., f  ; ,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           . , .                                    i,.        ,

Tame 1: Decmc peas load projections 2,; . .: - *NUCLEAAy,# , l, '., , . , 42.1 ~' - S"***f - MW I

                                                                                                                                ..; r . ,,., m , , ,

NIRC NIRC j

                                                        ..               t-c           .                 - ' 196 9 ,*,e',,                      -
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                                                                                            . ...                                                                                                                   ..- c? q,.-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ,-J                           1975 ( Act.ad                               3E&C14                            415.509
                                                                                           .e.' ' .
                                                    ~                                                                                              .

I- '

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ?!                      1973                                                                                                                        '

J. L . T. . 423.373 444.317 I 1 i

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               .                  .[                 1980                                        445.304                           466.413
                                                                    . 1.3 r                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        a.

[ -*i - 1.w- s i  : Sal 448.253 490.209 '

                                                   .,                        c                                                    1                       . . .e * *                              ....
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        *l                           1582                                        491.314                          514.500                                        ',

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       . . .;                        !546 l

51$.423 136.75 a r.'Cl "YORO l - ? "'t MYOPC - - [. . .J;l . ) 3 1957 512.239 542.4 3

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   '                 :588 538.815                          570.505 L

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These peak load forecasts take into ac- MW of nuclear, and 5.000 MW of oil f! red witr this decline is the increase in the con-count a signtScant response by the public base load capanty. The amount and types tnbsmo of nuclear from the present level to snergy conservenca and a vigorous ap- of new base load generating capacty pres- of 14% to approximately 27% by 1988. Al-plicanon of load muuppent techniques, ently under construction and in vanous though coal utdizatiert as a percent of total 23 electnc uu!!ty cthstry is promoung stages of planning. design. or !!:ensing is fuel use remains at about 50% over the sn'rgy conservauen through educadonal shown on Figure 1. forecast period. the kilowatthours by coal-programs. home energy audits. insulation Most of the new nuclear and coal Sred fired generation would increase from programs. and other methods. They are capacty planned to be in service by 1983 1.095 billion kWhs in 1979 to 1.727 billion also acuvely engaged in numerous demon- is under construction but about 60% of the kWhs in 1988. nose fuel projecuens are stranen and applict. tion programs of load capacity planned for service dunng the predicated on the timely compledon of the manigement techniques such as time-of- 1984-1988 penod is not yet under con- planned generating program, the current day rates. interrupuble rates. remote con- strucuen. ferocast of electric requirements. and the trol of customer appliances. and heat stor. Figure 2 indicates the total generaung assumpoon that there will be no con-ags devices, with the goal of centrolling er capacty, by type. planned to be in service straints on fuel avatlability and use beye..d rsduong future peak demand require- for each year during the forem penod. It those currently andapated. l mints. Current Icad management acuvtues is signiScant to note that even thougn no nese forecasts demonstrate the efforts are centered in exploratory ventures and. new gas-dred base load capacty and only of the utility industry to reduce the use of for the mest part. the impact and bene 6ts a small amount of ed-dred base load capac- both gas and ed as fuels for electnc genera-Of d:Nerent pracuces are yet to be known sty is bemg added. tre extsung gas and tion. In 1979, with the emergence of a with any degree of conddence. Even with ed-dred capacty still represents a signia- surplus of gas supplies. gas has been thess oferts. electne requirements are sull cant poruon of the total genersung capac- unlized in place of oil where possible and expected to :ncrease by about 50% over ity in the United States. and in some areas when allowed by local regulatory bodies. tas next ten years. is the prednminant capacty type. thus further reducing the use of oil. How A kok at future generating Cnte pmmise that the geraung ca- long this can condriue u uncenaan. cap': city pacty program planned for the next ten years is installed on schedule. the cur- Generating capacity uncertainties To provide adequate power supply to rently projected electnc energy require-msst current load projections for the monts to be supplied by vanous fuel types Utilices face formidable obstacles re-garding the timely installation of projected 1979-1988 pened. the unlines in the con. is shown on Figures 3 and 4 for the years tiguous United States are planning the 1969.1979. and 1988. The prcporuen of generaung capacty additions. The already long lead-umes for the planning licensing, nst acomen of approximately 250.C00 MW elect =c generanon by gas and od together and construcucn of new generstmg uruts of generating capacty--ranging from has declined over the past ten years to the have a high probability of being extended 25.000 to 30.000 MW per year. This in- present level of 28%. and is projected to by extsung regulatory cr Snancial uncer-c!ucts 125.000 MW cf coal-dred. 107.000 decline to about 16% by 1988. Coupled taindes. For a coal-arod generaung unit. a typical schedule of the major acuvtry phases is I  ; .u.

j. . . Air.-yflect n .- - e . & ^ 'M.C.d1 GORE.i5  % shown on Figure 5. As indicated, a

                                                                                                        -!:.J:;-{: 3
      ;        ~     -<-
                                                                                  ;i5.      h ,.                                                                            ,

nuntmum of 3-4 years is required to pre-i t - "-M . GTYPICAL SCHEDULE'? ' . MM . . j pare the necessary environmental data, m n - FOR COAL-rIRED GENERATING PLANT 2 MM - - .- -~ applicanons. and secum all requimd per-

                                                                                                          .                          mits. This time span amounts to about half
                                          -                   ?                     '
                                               *#D                                                                                   of the 8-8% year lead-dme required to 3'
                                                                                                              ,.                     complete a coal-Sred unit: fcr a nuclear
     ;                     I            I        h [            ,               y         .-         w
                                                                                                                          ~.

unit this licensing time extends up to six PERMITAPeUCATION;:' > i [ s

                                                                                                 %~

q years, with the overall lead-ume being c - about 12-14 years. Althcugh the number et permits re-

                                                    .f     .              *                                      -
                                                                                               *l                     .              quired fer a new generating unit wdl vary CER N N NEER g r                                     '-     -

from locality to locality. in general. the t - - ~

                                             ~                                                                                      regulatory process has already reached j              j                                                            unmanageable propornons and continues l               l                                                            to grow. As an example. in the mid-1970's.

CCNSTPUCT!CN a targe coal-dred generaung unit required about 50-55 permits. By 1978. this same l 9 , , , , , type of unit required up to 65 cermits and this number centinues to grow. ' 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 M ) 8 9 The siting and licenstng of new generat-88 ing units are undoubtedly among the most i serious proclems facing the industry now l PERMIT APouCATION INCLUCES pmEPARATION CF and are anticipated to increase in seventy. ENVIACNMENTALIMPACTSTATEMENT P*RMIT ApeLICATICNS. Proposed generating sites require pro-HEAAING.CEVELCPMENTCF ENVIRCNMENTAL DATA. AND Icnged heanngs before numerous regula. CCNCEPTUAL ENGINEERING

• tory agencies to secure the necessary i

' OETAILED ENGINEERING INCLUCES ACTUAL PLANT permits for such Construction. Even after CESIGN.vENOCR NEGOTIATICNS. ANO CCNTRACTING FCR the need for generaung capacity is estaD-( i EcutPMENT. lished. it is often indeterminable as to CONSTAUCTICNINC1.UCES LAND ACCutSmCN AND SITE wnen and whether approvals for a specfic PaEPARATICN. site will be forthcoming. l Several government sponsored studies l 1

                                                                                                                                                                                 ^

r-aN

                   %.. _.% _. M,__J,___         M.t--   6. . M, M. . . . .. 'N                              ~

FIGURE 6 (:c I.4;

                   ;,'   ' C' d' NERC(CONTIGUOUS U.S.)

POTENTIALIMPACTOF NUCLEAR y AND COAL UNIT DELAYS ON BULK POWER

D SUPPLYADEOUACY h ,

                                                                                   . (SummerSeson)
                            ~ MEGAWATTS                                                     , .

l_-

                *.                                                                           ~
     ,,,                          X 1000 '                                      -
                                                                                           ~ ,,                                                                .

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1 The estterence or " shortfall" between " Pear y e.L Q.y

                                    .          .s '.           ** 3. . , l.          .
                                                                                                   '1'            N-

{ Load. Scenana I" and Peak Load. Scenan I il .:..'i.9 " D.' Nb CAPA81UTY . 4 # represents a measure of mat amand

    &           ,. ,l            700         Q*-l-                          3h,.,'                                                                 ._  - A load wnich would De subject to curtastment i f l
                  ;m
                             ~
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                                                      . X. .
                                                             ~
                                                                  .t .          -
                                                                                              *Jh ,, ?'f .--- m                                          . * . it,in fact. ttre installed generstmg capacolity
                                                                                                                                                             -    is as espected m Sceneno II and peakload '

x t s00 - p *** s "~~~ recustements grow as presentry forecast. Se f' S- pggggcyo ,f . "The proscects for an adequate future powe l

                                                                                                     ,                                                        ; suCDoy".Dage 9.

w . 500

                                                 - , ~-;.. .-

4 . . hy -*

                                .'400
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y.- f ' , _-~ 300 - ' 4_. b i scomuo a Foreemeias cmasuTV ana PtAn Loao a 1 00 _ _- . s y aa.eues.c.ommo

                                                                         , con nno        e emanny no.crea ana PtAn Loao mm cou.a tw ma
      .                  . .; -                             3.,ana           m =.aw.oranseees re or oman anres                     aucmerwm:

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                            . 100            I           i === maa ses -- i i                         men sos          _ i   ua , ese-w     { ' #.L .                        p.ue    ,..                    i                    ,            2                     2 y-       f C.j                             icoes       e                  a

• i t 2 i L. 0 t1979. ~1982 1985 1948

4 -

l . %:f l@ are underway dealing with the .ssue of the utslities to delay construcuon of generating will. in turn. reduce further the likelihoo - ! I impact of power plant sitmg. Cne of these units even thougn Inss would have an ad- of accdents to the future. NERC hopes th !3 is in the ECAR area, wnere an Ohio River verse impact on future reliability and ade- the current investigations regarding nt h Basm Energy Study (ORBES) has been quacy. j c: ear safety move forward with diligence underway for some ume. carned out by a It has been the stated policy of the Fed. There is a need at this time for dis - 04 numcer of universities under contract to eral Admmistration since early 1977 to m. passionate thmking and a realization tha 1 a the United States Environmental Protec. crease the utilizanon of coalin order to re- nuc! ear energy is an essenual part of th non Agency (EPA). ~he scope of Inis study duce the nation's reliance on foreign ott. nation's electnc energy supply. k< is to assess the potennal environmental. Counter to this policy. vanous new pieces Nuclear capacity presently contribute N economic. and soc:ological impacts ofiarge oflegislation and their implementing regu- about 14% of the total electric energy pre power plant developments along the Ohio lations sucn as the new surface mining and ducuan. If the nation is to reduce its futur , d River and its tnbutartes. Although this air cuality regulations. are exacercating use of oil by a ty significant amount, nt study has not been completed, the Phase I the problems of future development of etear generation programs must be ker

    $(    report presents the vanous negauve ef. coal 4tred generation to tne point where viable. There must be a commitment frt q       fects of coal-fired deveicements. The in- sucn developments are difficult at best.                                                                     the Administration to reduce the signif

a. ferences from the study are that there may The nation's nuclear program is fraught cant impediments to nuclear deve q

f be pressure to increase the stringancy of with uncertamty. The recent accdent at opments. In many areas of the countrs regulattons governing the siting of coal- the Three Mile Is!and (TMI) nuclear plant nuclear is the only economic and vtacs 4 fired generatzon in this area. even though will no doubt have an impact on the future choice to reduce op' consumption. F the requirements of the Cean Air Act and of the nuclear option in this country. P-ior example in NPCC. . .ostantial prograr d Cean Water Act already pose very formid- to this event, the progress of the nuclear of nuclear capacity nas been committed b-f aole restnct2ons. y program was slow ct best. This accident the unlities to reduce this area's heavy de Acother major problem impactmg the has heightened the debate over nudear pendence on foreign oil. (In 1978. approx

   ?J     development of future generation re- power. Some groups are already calling for imately 50% of all electnc energy prc Q      sources is the significant financial uncer. the complete dismantting of all exisung duced in New England and New york wa y

t anty many utilities are facmg. The impact plants: others. the bannmg of any new suppliec by oil-fired generation, requinne

   ]      of current inflatiodary pressures and the plants. irrespecuve of the consequences to over 164 million barrels of oil 1 Howevet
  )       lack of adequate rate relief which. in some the nation's electne energy supply. Les- because of financial and regul tory cor
   'J     cases. has severely constramed the capa- sons to be learned from the TMI event will straints. this program has. been delaye.

g j bliity of utilities to raise funds to support ce incorporated into all nuc! ear plants to repeatecly. such that over the past fou construction programs. have forced include even better safety systems which years. the units under construction fo M 5 3 49 d

w s ice dunng the 1980's have been de- gress. including an intenm storage facility ity. Scenano [J The currently forecasted layed on the average of 4% years per umt. to accommodate spent fuel elements for pea k load is shown a s " Pea z load. Scenario !!'

*he impact of such delays will be the need the next 20 to 30 years. While it would be           " Capability. Scenario !!" shows the to mcrease the amount of oil burned for better if the problem were faced directly capability expected. considering the slectnc generation dunng the 1980's. This and a decision reached concernmg fuel re- likelihood of delays of presently planned situation in the northeastern United States processmg and permanent disposal of the coal Gred and nuclear generatmg units.

is charactenstic of the problems facmg nu. resulting high level wastes the Congress (The delays associated with "CapaDility, clear generauon across the country. Our. should at least enact intenm storage legis- Scenano II" are identified on Figure 6.) ing the past year. some 55.000 MW of nu- lauen as soon as possible. The level of peak load wnich could be clear capacity has experienced some served by this capability, wnile observ. amount of dew. which on an average ing appr priate adequacy critena. is btsis results in a delay of about one year The prospects for an adecuaca shown as " Peak Load. Scenano II." The dif-per unit. future poWee Supply ference between ' Peak !. cad. Scenano I" Many systems have indicated that. On tne basis of the current forecast of and " Peas I.oad. Scenano II" represents a based on economic evaluations of variou. electnc demands over the next ten years. measure of that amount of load which forms of capacity. nuclear is still the most the outlook for an adequate power supply might'not bd served adequately and which economical choice if it can be eonstructed will be highly dependent on tne complecon would be subject to curtailment. This within a reasonacle time frame. The pro- of the presently scheduled gene *atmg ca- shortfall becomes evident in tne ea : - tracted regulatory procedures wnich pacity program. 1980's and mcreases m seventy in the fo!- !sngtnen the overall time frame to com- As discussed previousiv. the implemen- lowing years. reaching a levet of 50.000 ptete a nuclear unit and. In turn. extend the tauon of the coal and nuclear programs MW by 1988--based on present load unlity's Snancial exposure. make nuclear a forecasted by utilices face senous oesta- growth projections. quesuonacle economic choice at this time. ctes. It is highly procable tht; the comple- Experience has shown that uuliues re-Since fast year. only two nuclear umts tion of many of these units will be vise their generating capacity schedules were ordered by the industry for expected delayed-n some cases for at least three when load growtn forecasts are reduced. sit nce in the early 1990's. Considering years. Also there are likely to be outngnt However, the potential for additional slip-

ne 12-14 year lead-times. NERC ts con- carcMlanon of some projects. page due to external forces still exists. thus ccrned as to the lack of a det'initive ind.ica. Temporary morstona on the issuance of leading to the likelihood that snortfalls will acn of nuc! ear additions for the late 1980's operatmg and construcuon licenses of all still occur even at tnese lower load projec-and earty 1990's. nuclear units are being discussed in tne rions.

In this regard. there is a need to review Congress and the NRC has already mdi- The equivalent amount of oil that can ce tne regulatory ascects of nuclear power. cated that the operating license review for displaced annually by a 1.000 MW Also. there is an urgent need for the Con- 18 umts and the construccon permit re. genaratmg unit, either nuclear or coal-gress and the Admmistration to resolve the views for nine units will be suspended until Sred. is approximately 10 million barrels matter of nue: ear waste disposal and fuel January 1980. The impact of this suspen- per year. The oil equivalent of the energy rcerocessmg. The away-from-reactor stor- sion is yet to be determmed. that would have been PTduced by those age of nuclear spent fuel elements requires The proposed coal 6 red programs are nJear and coal.Sred generating units as-congressional acnon and it must be done also sucject to delay. A pproximately sumed to be delayed. as outlined in very soon. Utilities that installed nuc! ear 73.0C0 MW uf coal-dred uruts are sult in Scenano II. increases to about 500 million tsactors n me early 1970's anticipated the planning stages and it is douctful that barrels per year by 1988. This compares some form of recrocessmg and/or perma- the necessary state and Federal regulatory with the industry's current projected need nsnt scent fuel storage factlity by the earty approvals will be obtamed in a timely fash- for 770 million barrels of oil for 1988. 1980's. To avoid shutung down these reac- ion. Also affectmg tne achievability of this To assure future power supply acequacy tors. provisions must be made to increase program ts the financial capability of the and to reduce this nation's reliance on the storage capacity for scent fuel wnile utilities to commit to this construction. foreign oil. it is imoerative and prudent to awaiting the development of some form of The likelihood of delays in the comple- maintain the current coal-6 red and nuclear reprocessmg. tion of the projected generating capacity generation program on schedule. Furthermore. since spent nuclear fuel program raises serious concerns regarding Similar analyses have been carned out repre'ents a valuacle energy resource we the adequacy of buik power supply in the for each of the Regional Reliaoility Councils must loor toward its future recovery. Dis- United States dunng the next ten years. To and are presented in t te Appendices. postuen of spent nuc! ear 8uel can be han- evaluate the sensitivity of future power Wese assessments take into account spe-d!ed only at the Federal level, and requires supply adecuacy to prooable slippages of etSc and unique condittons within eacn re-decisive congrestional acnon. NERC be. projected generating capacity additions, an gion regarding generatmg unit types. fuel !ieves that the tecnnology is available analysis has been carned out which is dis- availability. generstmg unit forced outage today for safe. reliacle storage of spent fuel ptayed on Figure & The total generatmg excertence. load charactenstics. and re-elements, as weil as the reprocessmg of cacability. assuming the completion of the serve requirements. the fuel elements. Several bills on nuclear planned generatmg capacity program as stcrage h3ve ceen introduced in the Con- presently scheduled is shown as "Capacil-

                                                                                                                                      -   i;     /
                                                                                                 '"" "Y"**' ' " * " ' " ' ""
 $33F*3 ka 4* GCthG.fd A" 9'Wo       -d                     w                                    and forced curtailments of customerloads.

M3 3~ M d N %- *4 n. -: h .1N*j bulk transmission operating at alternating current levels of 230-kV to 765-kV and 2.976 mites of high voltage direct current (HVDC) tines. Dunng the next 10 years. the North Amencan systems are planmng to add over 15.000 miles of 230-kV. 23.000 miles of 345-kV.15.000 miles of 500-kV. 1.800 miles of 765-kV. and 2.000 miles of High voltage and extra high voltage in 19731974. the severe weather condi. * " '" transmission lines consutute the pnmary tions during the winters of 1976-1977 and * ** """' * *

• means of assuring a reliable bulk power 1977-1978. and the coal stnke of 1977 "" "' # "" "* '# * #

supply system--one wnich is secure under 1978. Had it not been for the existence of f983 and 198988. ar s n r ER stresses caused by a wide range of con- the strong interconnected network. wide-tingencies. At its most elemental ,evel. as a whole in Table 2 and for each regten in l spread electric energy shortages would Appendix 3. transmission provides the means to move have occurred. with the consequent impact power from generaung plants to load cen- on public health and welfare. These transmission plans . include many ters. Developed into networks. transmis- Reliability is an integral part of the plan. new interconnections between individual ston serves as the integrating medium of ning 'uncuon. Although it is recognized utt es. and incmase the num d h-the bulk power system to provide for the that 100% reliability cannot be achieved. connections between NERC regions from distnbution of power from dispersed enterta r.m utilized in the planning of fu- 53 to 80. The present transmission system generating sources to cispersed load areas ture transmission networks such that the pm des for the intermgtonal tra m M within a large geographic area. Hist:ri- risks of unreliable situations are capabtWes indcate en $m E 4 h cally. the North American bulk transmts- minimized. In this regard each Regional planned omgram of transmnsen is con-structed. the interregional transfer ston systems have developed in an evolu- Reliability Counct! has developed reliability tinnary. cost effecuve manner, such that cntena to be used as minimum standards capabiWH am expm to be at the Ws today there are three large. hignty inte- for appraising the plans ceveloped by its cated on Agum 8. grated networks. member systems. These plans are devel- Threats to future reliability To provide for a reliaole culk power sup- oped and routinely tested against the ap-ply, the network must be designed to pro- plic3 Die entena and tne regions have pro- A senous obstacle to the building of vice flexibility so that the system can ac- cedures developed to review whether the commodate a wide range of operating con- planned system will meet the regtonal re- voitage (EHV) lines. is environmental or citions. Such flexibility offers more oppor. liability encena. ..p g ;,

                                                                                                ,       .. groups in the course of ceraficauon tunities for mutual assistance dunng              Relianility concerns are also a funda-emergency conditions. and results in more mental requirement in the daily operation               rocedures before regulatory bodies. Op-l                                                                                                  osition to transmission is usually raised economic operatton. It also provides the of a power system. A power system is opportunity to constcer a wider range of dynamic in nature due to vanations in load by local groups who perceive themselves cottons for the locanon of new power sup- levels and generation schedules. In the to be cirectly impacted by the parucular ply facilities in the future.                  face of these continual changes. the line route selected; understandably their g .. don't put it here. but their

.mergency power transfers between operator must control the power system in I systems taKe place on a routine basis to such a manner as to assure an adequate arguments run the entire gamut of possible provide for the unscheduled shutdown of level of reliability to avoid widespread cis- reasons for opposition. There appears to be generating units wnenever a system can- ruption of service wnen emergencies oc- I ttle recognition of the role of transmission l not supply"the resulting deficiencies from cur. In this regard. the system ts operated in the overall reliability and economy of l its own resources. The use of the network in a mode to be capable of withstanding bulk power supply system operations and l dunng widespread emergencies has been disturbances without disastrous conse- little understanding of the inherent amatically demonstrated in recent years quences. This becomes more difficult economies of scale provided by EHV durtr'g penods of severe capacity or fuel when new facilities do not come into serv. transmission lines.

I I ceficiencies. most notably the oil embargo ice as scheduled.This increases the expo- ea a e nc a j which have led increasingly to a pressure t place new transmission Une on cm l Table 2: Transmission lines - miles (total NERC) ! ridors contiguous to existing transmission tkdor Consaucuen. Coawnmed facilities. This hac an adverse erTect on re. ! Emsung or Planned Toug liability in reducing the security achieved l Voltage (kV) (1 1-79) (1979-43) (1984-48) (12-31-43) by separate nqhts-of way. The Supreme HVAC. 230 71.310 Court of the State of Minnesott in inter. 8 931 6.447 87.288 preting the Minnesota Environmental Pol. 345 34.587 13.168 10.000 57.755 icy Act. has estantished a policy of non-500 17.673 8.653 6.501 32.833 l I proliferation of transmission nghts-of-way. 765 1.574 654 1.172 3.400 As a result. unlities in that state may be HVDC. 250 1.140 0 0 1.140 forced into paralleting existing facthties or 50 %2 0 0 M2 multiple circuit construction. wnica in

1. 0 2 7 2.84 ,

Another threat to future reliability is the 10 1

FIGURE 7 NATIONAL ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL ' (NERC) EMERGENCY TRANSFER CAPABILITIES-MW* 1979 SUMMER Q uama To ga nG4/, ' 4' (** Omfamio ,g,

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o FLA. ico sou. so ,,j e, "A - 3pp I I me emergency transfer cacacilities snown represent the acility of the transmisuon networt to transfer power from one area to anotr.4r. The capacil'.nes snown are for non simultaneous transfers and were cetermined in accorcance with the following NEFC dennmen: Em;rgency Transfer capability (B) ne euth power system capaole of aesortirig tne initial power

   *he otal amount of power (above the not contracted purchases and                     swmgs and amasmg stacle upon me loss of any single cansmission l                                                                                        circuit. wansfomer. or generaung unit.

salest which can te senedwed. with an assurance of adequate system (C) A!! transmission loadings withm their respective short-ume renamilitv. for interrepocal or multtregonal transfers over the transmis-emergency raungs and vohages withm emergenw Hmits aher me inmal ston network for penods um to several cays. tased on the most limitmg of power swegs Mowing the distumance. but bm, s r.m adjustmous the followmg: am mace. Un me event of a pemanent outage of a Wity. wansfer IA) Ait transmission loactngs iniually witam iong-ume emergency rat-schedules may need to be revised.) ings aad all voltages initially withm accectacle limits. 11

r s,ic o NATIONAL ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL (NERC) EMERGENCY TRANSFER CAPABILITIES-MW* 1988 SUMMER

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Ma%Etg i ;.5 MAIN e [o/ From WSCC:10t _ F@#'LQs (s um cuerag 4 j] soo casia o o Qo #4 g ygpg [ 3 D[o [ Q 7:00 ' ECAg .'. ' N Ir$fs, ae;

                              ,4bf.cenas   Lt gd   [y ,k'y 2eco            4                                                                wtvaa.a f S E)$ M                                   iu.i=ois                    ;
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                                              +

na.sas sY/* ....,.v. fVACAR =cer.' N . .,s -:!.tge ssgtt ? ,,g n 7p4 .x l  %[j  !. .%${ Non '" P ' NPCC jg , s sies. ye, poi

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                                                                                                                                                                           'nO q 9 9"                                           < tv                   . - - -

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           '$nA           gpp The emergency :ransfer capabiluies snown recreseni ene abiliiv of the transnussion narworn to transfer powar from one area to anoiner The capacilities
    =nown are for non-simuitaneous transfers ano were cetermined in accorcance with the fot!omng NERC cefinition Emergency Transfer Capability                                                            (si he bulk power system capable of sosarcing the initial power D.e total amount of power iacove the net contracted purchases and                   swings and remaining : table upon the foss of any single transmission l   sales) wruch can be schedu!ed. with an assurance of adequate system                    C     . .ransfomet or gWraung umt (C All transmissicn !oacings within their respective short-time rettacility. for interregional or mult regional transfers over the transmis.

emerge cv ratings and voltages within emergency Itmits after the inattal sion network for periods up to several days. based on the most lirniur$g of p war swings following the disturbance. but before system acJustments < the following-are made (In the event of a cermanent outage of a facility, transfer (A) All transmission loacings antually within iong-ume emergency rat-senedules may i.eed to be revised.) ings and ail voltages intually within acceptaD!e luTtsts. 12

cfbet of serious financial constramts. Decreased networt rellaedity resulting mere rapicly than presently forecast: if Tatn together with regulatory delays. from insuScent transmissten capabdity new generaung capacity is delayed: If these factors wdl result in systems with under certam circumstances results in extsung generaung capacity ss rendered more budt-in constramts and !ess flexthdity lower transmissten transfer capability both inoperable by admmistrative or other ac-then is desirable frem economic and relia- within and between regtens. As a result. a cons: cr if reduccons in the availability of bility standpomts. Table 3 Ilsts a numcer of system sufermg local capacity emergen- ed er other 'uels should occur because of transmissten lines wnich have been de- ces may be limited in its abdity to cover emmargoes. sunes. transportacen dif5

 !ayed due to regulatcry lingauen. cr anan- this deficency by importmg power from cuines. or other constraints.

cal prcctems. neightenng systems. As a cercilary the In view of the conclusion :nat the inter-Increases in pcwor supply requirements abdity to accommodate energy transfers connected transmission networks wd1 be , witno*it assccated transmissten addtuons for economy anc!or fuel conservanen may subjected to greater operating stresses in I will increase the stress en extsung trans- be signif!cantly reduced. the future it is urgent that the industry miss:en faclines. This wt!! result in sys- 3e efect ofinsuScent transmission en intensify its eferts to augment its highly tems bemg operated with less flexthdity networic reliabdity wdl be gradual and. as a ecordinated operations and deveicp ap-l thus ceing more vulneracle to transmis- result. the cut!cox today is fcr a deciine in pregnate operatag strategies with the ob-l sien Une evericacs. Teading to more fro- the reliacdity of buik pcwor supply over jecuve of assunng that the overall secunty l gu;nt use of Icad reducuan measures to the next decade. Bis situancn could be- cf the buik power supply system ts main-i i maintam me integnty Of tne system. come enucal sooner tf Icads should grow tamed. Table 3: Transmission line delays serme dames Tr= - - line Regen Onginal F eensed Impact of delay Mosensact-Elr=y MAAC 1974

• Power supply reliandity to tne eastem part of MAAC is reduced 500-kV 'ine necessitatmg off-econcmy operaton snd increased ed utilizacon.

Salumore-Wastungton MAAC 1974 1982 Reliantiity of power supply to the Baltmor, Wasnington load 500-iV toco area of MAAC is degraded. West Walpole-Needham NPCC 1983 1985 Reliantlity cf power supply tc the 3osten area is degraded. 345-kV Hne Bnice Muton(Canadal NPCO 1978 1981 Reliable cpersoon cf the Bruce 3.300-WW nuclear genereung 500-kV une plant is degraced req.unng generamon curtadment of up to 300 MW. i Cotstnp Ptant 500-kV WSCC 1978 1983 Recuccon m transm:ssion capandity

• rom the MontanasWyoming l ransmission coal-fred plants to the west eacing to increased exposure to system fadures.

Midoomt-Malin WSCC 1978 1981 Reducten in transmission capactUry in WSCC increasing 500-kV line exposure to system fadures and curtadment of coal-dred j gensrecon. Chtsago-Forces MARCA 1978 1979 Reliability of power su;pty to nortnem Minnescta is degraded. 500-kV line Couned-Bluffs-Boonesville MARCA 1973 1979 Reliante operauen cf Couned-Bluffs generaung plant 345-kV line is degraded. Genoa-Lansmg MARCA 1977 1981 Reitandity power supply to southwestern Wisconsin Icad area is 161-kV !ine degraded. as weil as operanon of !.ansmg generacng plant. l Gavm-Callocen ECAR 1980 1982 Reliaele coeration of Mountaineer-Gavm 3.900-MW generattng 765-cv !ine ecmplex ts degraced as well as the power supply to the Char:eston.

• West Virgtnia lead area.

Ca!!oden-Wyommg ECAR 198G 1981 Reliacility of power suopiy to lead areas in West Virgmta and 755-kV line Virgmta is degraced. Jacxsen's Ferry-Axton ECAR 1981 1 , Reliantlity of power suoply to scuth central pornon of Virginia 765-kV line ts degraded. Juniter Marcmg ECAR 1973 "nznown Power supply reliacdity to tne C'evelanc metropoiitan load 3 u-kV :ine area is sonously degraced. l Mansf!ald-Jumger ECAR 1977 1980 Reduce interconnocuen capaedity to the Ceveland area. 345-kV Ene , Stiams Fert-Miams and ECAR 1975/1976 1980 Reliable operacon of the Miams Fert 1.000-MW plant is degraded. I Miacu Fen-Tochunter 345-kV ceu=le etreutt  ! tcwer !ine. l Gibson-Cresser-Cayuga ECAR 1977 1980 Reiiaele operauen of the Cisson 2.500-MW generaung ! 345-kV Itne  ; tant is cegraded. l n e -m enn .oomm w e.-.a. ruc 33 I

Negulatory and Financial resort to the Courts as means to overturn imnacts r on Future Bu!k Power ta'

• o=>oa-It appears to NERC that the current con.

Sunniva Adenuacv s s' 'a J and Reliabilitv J ate'$"*aa aSv "a a*=a= a charactenzed by an imbalance which re-sults in costly delay without adequate societal benefits. There is a compelling need to restore a rational balance between Regulatory issues the need W new electric generaung The extraordinary delays imposed by facilities and the destre for an irnproved Adequacy and reliability of future elec. regulation is illustrated by the licensan9 environment if both objectives are to be tne power supply are bemg sign Scantjy process for the two new gencraung uner.s obtamed. The lack of success in achieving impacted by regulations betng developed located at the Colstrto plant in Montana. An such a balance may stymie the efforts of and imptemented in response to the Na- application for these coal-fired units was the electne utility industry to maintam a tional Environmental Policy Act. Cean Air n!ed in 1973, and to date. six years !ater. reliable and adequate electric bulk power and Water Acts. and the National Eriergy necessary construction permits have not supply system for this nauon in the future. Act. This has led to additional regulauons been issued by the State of Montana and at the state as well as the Federal level. the U.S. Environmental Protecuan Agency The financial outlook At the state level. there has been an ex- (EPA). Dunng this permitung process. EPA The financial capability of most panston of the scape of authonty and a as weil as the courts have repeatedly re- utilities-both investor- and publicly-more intense review of unlity matters in versed decisions on whether the umts owned-to construct new facilities is pres-the areas of facility sating, load forecasung must comply with "Prevenuon of SigntA. ently stramed and for sorne. is acute. Sinca and overall electnc unlity plannmg. In cant Detenoration" (PSD) standards be- the early 1970's when many uulines held some cases, state regulatory agences have cause of a dispute over the techmcality as favorable bond raungs. there has been a become tnvolved m areas of managenal to whether the umts had commenced con- general decline in raungs. Similarly today discretton such as in deosions relaur.g to struccon pnor to June 1.1975. the common stock of many compames is unit size unit type. fuel use. and transmts- This episode illustrates two sigmficant selling below book value. The net effect of ston networt configuration. on the conten- causes for the delay of major power the current financial posture for unliues is tion that these are pubhe policy issues. faalities. First. the rules and definitions are mcreased costs for Snancing capital proj-Also. ratemaning in many states has sucject to conunual change dunng a licens- ects and substantial postponements of new seemingly oecome a socto-poliucalissue in ing process. Second, the administrative faclities. with an adverse impact on the disregard of established economic agencies are not perceived by the parttes reliacility and adequacy of the future bulk analyses. involved as having final decision making power supply system. Some states in recent years have taken a authonty. No power plant can proceed Over the next ten-year penod the utility provinctai atutude toward decisions telas- through the present permittmg process on industry will require substanual financing ing to energy resource development and a predictacle timetable when the rules are to support the construction of new facilities unlization. This atutude has a counter- constantly being changed. necessary to meet presently projected load producuve impact on the planning and op- In addiuon to the delays imposed in the requirements. Even though these load eration of the overail mterconnected bulk permits for new generating units, a grow- forecasts are significantly lower than his-power supply system. The existing inter- mg number of transmission lines are being toncal trends. the escalaung costs expen. connected networt has provided the citi- affected by regulatory delay and littgation. enced in recent years will result in sub-zens of this nacon with the most r2 liable Table 3 of the previous secuan identifies a stanually increased cost for the construc-and economic electne power supply in the number of major transmission lines which tion of new power supply faciliues. As an world. because it has been developed on have been subjected to delay due to some example. a new generating unit to be in-the basis of flextLility in the siting of gen- form of regulatory. litigation. or Snancal stalled in the mid-1980's is expected to eration and transmission facilities to take proolem. cost approximately 3 to 4 times as much as l advantage of natural resources and geog- Because of the major social. economic a gsneraung unit installed in the mid-raphy. While all states have an obligauon and environmental impacts of siting new 1970's. The electne unlity industry's capi-to protect the mterests of their ctizens. generating and transmission facilities. tal requirements for new faclities are es-they must also accept the fact that the re- many states have established sitmg agen- timated to average about $50 billica per liability and adequacy of the multi-state in- ctes or adopted certification procedures to year over the caxt decade. This is rougnty terconnected bulk power supply system assure that all public inputs are taken mto double current capital requirements, and must ce maintained if their citizens are to account in the determination of plant sitmg could necessitate outside financmg of up to contmue to receive the benefits which this and transmtssion line routing. One of the 540 billion per year. This has been esti- ! system provides. stated goals of such procedures is to assure mated to represent at least one-third of all The net result of todays regulatory cli- the timely resolution of the conflicts as- corpcrate financtng requirements. exclud-mate is increased documentation. hear- socated with the determination of power ing financial and real estate institutions. ings. excessive delays and conflicung dec- facility sitmg. taking into account environ- Soluuons to the financial dilemma facng sions. This. m turn. increases the costs ul- mental and soctal issues. However, witn unlities are neither simple nor can they be timately borne by the consumer and the great number of enuties mvolved in implemented rapidly Nonetnetess there is threatens the degradation of power supply sucn proceedings each with its own inter- a need for an increased recognition by reliability and adequacy for the future. Fur- ests at stake. this entire sating process. regulatory agencies tnat future power j thermore. the continual threat of project ratner than being a means to expedite de- supply adequacy is being determined by delay or disapproval greatly inhibits the cisions. has become a forum whereby today's decistens. In this regard. umely and ability of utility managements to make de- projects can be delayed, sometimes indeft- adequate rate action is necessary now to csicns with any degree of confidence. As a nitely. Even after a stting decision is finally provide utilities with the ability to carry result. utilities are reluctant to commst to reached. taking into account all the avail- out the construction programs necessary necessary power supply factiittes. able evidence. opponents will oftentimes to meet future electrw energy needs. 14

l APPEniOICES" APPENDIX A Regional Assessments of Reliability and Adequacy A-1 ECAR A-4 MAIN A-7 SPP A-2 ERCOT A-5 MARCA A-8 WSCC l l A-3 MAAC A-6 SERC A-9 NPCC Figures Shown for Eacn Region: l (a) Tc:al Generaung Capacility by Pr:ncipal l Fuel Sources (b) Major Generaung Unit Accinens (c) PotencalImpact of Nu: lear and Ccal Unit Delays en Bulk Power Supply Acequacy (d) Electnc Generanen by Pnne: pal Energy Sources APPENDIX B hmission Lines Miles B-1 By Regten B-2 By Sucregion 7.e peas load. ;enerating caoacility. and fessil f.et rete meet cara normaily incuced in the ec::endu:es of the NERC l annual renew reocris Pave teen suchsced this year .n a stand aecne report tit!ed " Summary 3f ?? Jeced Peaa 'wac. Ceneraung Capaciutv. and Fossil Fuet Pequiremaats for tne Aege.oal Rettacihty Councts of NERC." July.1379 l l l l t l 1

APPEl\lDIX A-1 ECAR TOTAL GENERATING CAPACITY BY PRINCIPAL FUEL SOURCES ECAR MAJOR GENERATING UNIT ADDITIONS

                                                                                                                                                         )

i (summer) l 3 UEcAsATT5 a tooo .. j utcAwATTS t CCAL ClL NUCLEAR

       ,',", COAL              Cil./ GAS      MYORO     NUCLEAR 7                                                             ,

l

                                                                                                                                                    ,_i 5                                                                                                                           t
                         ,.m.,
                             ,                                              s                                                                          ~

1 N - M[ ' rW W& s ---l . n . M!b n . i - QPN n.Mg s g

                                                                                                                                                         -j a  -

Wpa m , t

                                                                                                                                                .. . _J v.t..

m. _ . s s

g 1

                      .4 y_                                                                r NONE                  l-a       h                                                     t       i                                                                   g y

o -

c MN [ -o  ; vge

                           .-                                  ,                 .              n                                 ,

F RF i . w .,i1 enoun wnuun enunu  : F Tk ) bi.si.- m . m rAN^. . . , , , , , , ., , , , . ,  : n n nannaann nunnna

              . , ~ -

FM;;;- i =;r i _1=.

                                       -o                                                      ,_         ,,ou, _, ,o ,,_,

ECAR Regional Assessment The East Central Area Reliability Coordmation Agreement the dominant fuel for electnc generation. Supplying over 80% (ECAR) region consists of nineteen member systems wnich of total forecast electnc energy requirements. serve all or parts of the States of Michigan. Indiana. Kentucky. Possibly the greatest oostacle to providmg an adequate Ohio. West Virginia. Virgmia. Pennsylvania. Maryland. and future power supply in the ECAR region will be the mability l Tennessee. For the 1979 1988 pertod. the aggregate summer to site necessary new generatmg facdities Approximately l pean loads being projected by the ECAR member systems 12.000 MW of the planned coal-Gred capacity additions are i result m an annual compound growth of 4.4%. which is re- not yet under construction and the ability to secure the nec. duced from last year's projection of 5 3%. This projection can essary permits, licenses. and regulatory appmvals Inr these best be desenbed as ' uncertain.' However it does redect the units in a timely mariner is of cnneern. An ongoing study best judgments. at this time. of the utilities m ECAR regard- bemg funded by the t].S. Environmental Protect on Agency ing economic expectations and the aoparert impact of strong (EPA) to assess air quality and other impacts of electnc power i conservation etYorts. particularly in the commerttal sector. generation in the Ohio River Basm--a pnme location for l Although the region contams 9 high concentration of indus- power plant development because of water and transporta-tnal plant. much of this plant is mature. and only limited tion conditions-ms entical of expanded energy production. l expansion is expected m the future because of economic. Prelimmary findings of this mvestigation--reiying on data environmental, and productivity reasons. As a result. only basos models assumotions. and interpretations which have l modest electncal growth is Ocmg projected. not yet been fully substantiated-- 4mply that much more Of the approximately 87.300 MW of generstmg capacity stnngent environmental regulations for the licensing of i now in service, nearly 00% is coal-fired. utiliting coal pro. power facilities should be considered. Current environmental duced pnmanly within the region from the Appalachian ccal regulations already impose very sonous restnctions on the Gelds. To provide an adequate power supply to meet the load sitmg of new coal-fired generatmg uruts and there are senous projected for the next ten years. approximately 40.000 MW doubts whether service schedules for the currently clanned t of generating capacity additions are planned by ECAR generation program can be met. l member systems. aoout 27.000 MW of which is coal Gred. Annther very sigmficant factor influenctng future power. and 10.000 MW is nuclear Although the rose of nuclear cen- supply adequacy in ECAR is the random outage of generating eration within ECAR is expected to increase. supplying aoout capacity due to unforeseen condition derating. partial out-13% of total electne eneegy by 1988. coal will continue to be ages, and unplanned unit outages. Caal fired generatmg ca-16

  - ..                 r-           .w                   .         .

Lme,....-.. --*"

                                .a                                   ~...~.._n.                                                 . .s . 2. : .:.e.m., y        . - . . .>-m -~.. v. .u
                                          . w.                     .-                                 %:., : -             .. :                                                               -
                                                                                                                                                                <!-. ~ w' wn r~ ~ c<
                                                                                                     .              a                  , , ,                         .

ECAR-POTENTIALIMPACTOFNUCLEAR - i.

                                                                                                                 ~     *
                                                                                                                                           '. w .                                --m . .           .

AND COALUNIT DELAYS CN BULK POWER p ECAR ELECTRIC GENERATION :4 ~1 ' SUPPLY ADECUACY . ej.. ,. SY PRINCIPAL ENERGY SCURCES*~ . b" I

                                                                            " . 'b.                       f 'DWWERENCE SETWEEN sOM OF e&RTS ANo .00% REP #E5EN SNARE OF ELaCTmc GENERAnCN OT soumCES NOT sHOWN, INCLuciNG NET PUMP STCRAGE REQusREME.NT3w P

WECAwATTs . EcW Atf $$ si.ucM5 144 , los

• 1988

       ?                                                                              ~                  .

NUCt. EAR .*** ss.2% cA*asiuty ., ,,

                                                                             ,s .                        i soo.                               .      ,, e                                   ,
       .co A - ;;; ... ~,,..
                                                  ,,,                        -                           p        .

ms . , ... ;, so . . . , a. s.ss e,e ,,,, & ... . , . .. c,.

                                                                             ,<;-.4                      p                                                          .
                                    .       .,.u...              y..                             -       ,.aan . .                       #:= . '.L=.p V                              <c . ..M. . .;

sak w/ -

                                            -lN~.d -

l

                                                                              . '22A 1

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                                                                                                                                          ..N CCA1.r -
                                             ~~

l :oo . se.as a2.as - -' x_,,,,-._n_ m , ,,,. t . ra e

                                                                                                             #   "                                                                       ~

w. m ,. .

n

c., .s . ""' '""* -

                                                                                                                               -5.0%

4,., r i

                                                                                                                                                                        -3as
               .c                .                          .

i Cli.- . , is71 1942 19e5 1940 .

 .., , . -           ..            __ _ . 9        .-                                4 :;    _           f-
                                                                                                                                    \*                    ---

f'.: ?W -- 1 pacty generally expenences a higher level of unavadabdity adequacy to the poss2dity of generaung unit delays indicates as compared to cddred er gas-dred capacty due to the abra- that the ability to reliably serve forecasted power demands savo nature of ccal and to ex=eme dunes it imposes en may be jeopardized. However. t!us analysts assumed a sub-equipment. Further adding to te dif!culty in burmng ceal is stanual improvement in the current random unavailabdity ho wide vananen in heat. ash, and motsture content. all of performance of exisung generaung units within ECAR. wnica greatlyimpact tne performance of a coaldred umt. Should generaung unit unavailability cenunue at the present An analysts gf the random weekday cutages of generaung ;evel. Nture power supply adequac'/ will deteriorate sigmfl. espacity within ECAR dunng a two-year pened (1976-1978) cantly ' rem that indicated i1 the sensinvity analysts.

ncicates mat the mimmum amount of random unavailable Another growing prcblem within ECAR is the increastng capacty that can be expected each weekday is 12.7% of dady dif!!culty in secunng me necessary permits for construcuon n:t seasonal capability De analysts also shows that there is a cf required transmission faclices. The historical pattern of 10% probabdity that randem unavailable capacty could ex- growth in ECAR has lec to the development of an extensive l cetd 25.5% of dady net seasonal capability and that average ransmission system with numercus ues to neighbenng re-randem unavadable capacty is abcut 21%. giens. This cansmissten netwerr has provided the region

      '" hts randem cutage performance is of great concern to                                          with a h2gn degree of flexthdity and reliability of bulk power ECAR members, and it is recogmzed that impreved avadabd.                                               supply. Recently. this network has further demonstrated its Ity of generatng units is essenca!. if capacty margins pro.                                           capabdity by enabling the ECAR systems to transfer targe Acted fer Nture years are to prove adequate. A number of                                              quannties of cealdred energy to neighbonng regions to dis-pregrams are now underway to effect improved perform.                                                 place oil.

ance. However. me operatien cf addiuenal polluuan centrol Timely installation of the planned cansmission program equipment being installed on ex2 sung and future units to within ECAR for the 1979-1988 penod is in jeopardy due to comply with me C ean Air Act regulations will have a nega. senous Snancal ecnstraints faced by several unlines and uvo influence en Nture random unavailabdity performance. growing regulatory impediments in the licensing of new Unicss there is substantialimprovement in unavadabdity per. transmission !ines. In recent years. several key transmission Srmance. Nture power supply adequacy within ECAR wtl1 be lines have been delayed---in some cases for several years. senously degraded. hese lines are included in Table 3 of the main text. The net

      ~~he capacty addluon program required for the ECAR area                                          result of growing financal and regulatcry difficulties will be cunng the next ten years will be dif!! cult to accomplish at                                          de degradation of Sture bulk power supply reliability in bast. An analysis of the sensiuv:ty cf Sture power supply                                             many portions of the region.

17

APPEi\lDlX A-2 ERCOTTOTAL GENERATING CAPACITY ERCOT SY PRINCIPAL FUEL SOURCES MAJOR GENERATING UNIT ADDITIONS .}

                                      <soneer                                                                                                                                            !

wca.ang '1 a1c00 l woe. ns . -l stooo COAL OIL NUCLEAR. j CCAL GAS'f - HYORO NUCLEAR , 7 __._ , . . . , ,, , . l.

                                   =~ .                                . s -            . . . . .                                 . . .                   ..

.l

                                 . '.                                                                             .                                                                -1
                    ,                                                        s     ..                 .._            ..          .
                                                                                                                                                                     . .      ..g 1

i 4 .. .. . .

                                                                                                                                                                         ._ q
                                                                                                                                                                                     .s as k                          ,,                                 . 2 .              . - -
                                                                                                                                                                              ~       '

N #* NCNE ~

                                %         y..                          -

i . -.. y -

n . ,

a .>,-a '

             #I %r"h"$ h.

so s2 se u as so u e4 se sa s

so 82s4 m u 8 erm r.y

                                                                                                                                   .-             ,         r- - -

4 71 12 as as 71 sz ss as 79 s2 as as rt s2 as se c. sum a.= tait

              - , - -                                              .                              _ _ ,,0 ,u                                        e,                                .a l4 i

I ERCOT Regional Assessment The Electne Reliantlity Council of Texas (ERCOT) is com- j

   ;nsed of 27 munic: cal utilities. 50 cooperauves. one state agency and eignt investor-owned companies.                                 NOTIAWPCOF EWR E QR I UNIT DELAYS ON ERCOT Olt.! GAS                                                                .I Tor the 1979 1988 penod the peak load growth rate is forecast to average 5.'!% per year. reduced stigntly from last            REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRIC GENERATI                                                                     .
                                                                                                                                                                                      'i year's project:on of 5.5% per year. The generating capacity additions planned for service dunng this penod include
                                                                                                                                                                                       ] 3 nearly 12.000 MW of coal.ftred and 6.000 MW of nuclear                                                                                                                         ' *l units. The installation of this capac:ty as currently scheduled                                                                                                      i.L.uous 8 sa.cwafTms                                                                              saanus ca. .'8' will result in generation reserves in ERCOT higher than re-            sa. cons                                                                                  taavawir.

qutred for reliacility purposes alone. because of the program

                                                                               ~

j i I underway to reduce the region's dependence on natural gas. Celays in tne construction of these new coal-fired and nu. Isa- <4

                                                                                                                                                                                       ]j clear units wt!! require the ittereased use of oil and/or gp to                                                                                                                       i compensate for the energy which would have been suoplied               200  -                                      ge.aC'"' ,                                            <

2se '

                                                                                                           * g by these new fae: lit:es. The chart at the ngnt illustrates the                                                             NON.OILGAS                                                ;

potential increase a oillgas usage that would te required to 150 - *oo'fc=*t es cas censuwc= - 2r3 d compensate for the construction delays assumed a the YucY$NeoEi.NI$oIE,*7" ' i

                                                                                         ..a --...... . . . . . . . ~                 ,_,

too- - 1tu 3j

                                                                                                                                                                                       .J sa  .                                   O!UGAS                                                        so ".

Istl 1982 194s 11st sCENamtOI ....... sCENAAIOMe. 1 e 18

o

                                                                                                                                                                         . 1 ERCOT POTENTIALIMPACTOF NUCLEAR                                                                 ERCOT ELECTRIC GENERATION                                  I AND COALUNIT del.AYS CN BULK POWER                                                            BY PRINCIPAL ENERGY SOURCES

• 3 SUPPLY ADEQUACY  !

                                                                                                   *0iPPt8ENCE BETWEEN SUM CP PARTS ANo 100% AEPRESENTS                    *

( h Season)

• SMAAE CP ELECTRIC GENEAAr1CN ev SouaCES NOT sHOWN.

INCLUo4NG NET PUMP STORAGE REQUIREMENTS. j J

     . utcAwATT5
     ' E1000                                                                                                                                                       ,;

(E.ow art M'tB +- 1 St.uoMS .7< t i oc. j lf l CAPAeluTY .- ,,,- 250). 1988 - I l 50 . ,

                                                   , , , . * ~ ,PtAM  , , .LCAo
                                                                            ..                                                                                          *i "j
                                                                                              200"                  NUCLEAR), **',,.***    ,,...                       (j 1979     4 ''                   e
         '0  .
                                                                                                ,3,,
                                                                                                                        ,                                              '.]

emmun seanune 2.1v

                                                                                                                 *I               CCAl.                                    I t
         .g, scommoe -
                          ....sesnameecmmun m s                                    wese  e      100                       , ,.,,----- ...,,                    ,       s;
                                                              .. e. sea.s u.n.e.m.e
                                                                                                                                      . .. ,93 . . ,.                          .
                + . .                                 . . .                                ,      ,..            w.

tO.. . ses . es . _ GAS w i a a i 20.5 % }' c.e a , . s t n 3 19tl 1942 ital 19aa l l I I scenarto analysis. Assuming that od were to fill the entire Act requirements and attendant puotic heanng proce-onergy gap. annual oil usage would increase by about 36.6 dures are implemented. million barrels by 1988. Therefore. it is important that delays 4. Uncertainty of adequate and timely rate refief to sup-be eliminated to tas fullest extent possible. Port the increased cost of providing elecinc service and Bere are several other concerns in the regulatory area the additional cost of fuel conversion programs to re-l which could impact on the reliacility and adequacy of the place gas and oil generation. ERCOT region. These include: 5. Impact of the Power Plant and Industnal Fuel Use Act.

1. De etYects of Prevention of Sigmacant Detenoration which has as one ofits purposes the reduction of natural (PSD) and New Sourco Performance Standards (NSPS) gas and oil as fuels for electne generation. an future regulations. promulgated as a result of the C'ean Air Act fuel supply. In 1988. EBCOT will still nave almost 50%

Ammendments of 1977. on the siting of new genera- of its total installed capability in gas-fired ecutoment tion. and there is concern about the availability of fuel to

2. The impact of a proposed nsw water quality standard utilize this capacity for supplying peak load require-now being considered for reservoirs-.-the primary ments.

source of cooling water for power plants in the ERCOT Until these concerns are resolved and solutions developed. i region. the coordinated planning implemantation. and operatton of

3. Lengthening project read times as regulations become future facilities will be difficult. T'..s could have a negative more restnctive. and as National Environmental Policy impact on the future adequacy and reliability of the region.

   ' APPENDIX A-3 t

MAAC TOTAL GENERATING CAPACITY MAAC i BY PRINCIPAL FUEL SOURCES tsummer: MAJOR GENERATING UNIT ADDITIONS WECAwarT5 nica. WEGA8 art 3 41000

       '00  -

COAL CIL' HYORO NUCLEAR 04 WMR l t

                                                                                                                           ..l
                           ==-                                            i j

a . 5 so .

• 2

         .a .

2 ..! 1 q - r . , c- - -g MN y n 01 D .] m41(t L.,D%

                                                                          ,                                           4 nnuun              nnuun            nnunu 4                   a               Aff_i.D,4 .

n n n o is nn a rs n n u rs n na sw i ,= , ea,,

                                                                                      . _ ,su _ en ,,,u _ ,e MAAC Regional Assessment The Mid Atlantic Area Council (M/ AC) regton consists of       1970 . *inue to be present and include stagnation of the eleven memoer systems serving over 21 million people in all      regiorm s:enomy and once induced conservation efforts.

of Delaware and the Distnct of Colurrota. and mafor portions To mw; current projected peait load demands for the of Pennsylvania. New Jersey. Maryland. and a small portion of 1979-1988 pened. approximately 13.000 MW of new base the State of Virginia. In addition to the eleven member sys- toad generating capacity is planned to be added by MAAC tems. the municipais. electric cooperatives and small investor- member syster'ns. of wnich about S.600 MW is nuc!aar and owned electnc systems operating in the MAAC region partic- 2.900 MW is coal-fired. The scheduled completion of this pro. ipate in activtties under the Agreement through Associates, gram will result in nuclear taking on a greater role in supply. Each Associate is a representative for the interests of groups ing the electric energy requirements of the MAAC region. of these systems in their respective states. Presently tnere Thus. nuclear increases its proportional shsre of total electnc j are five Associates in MAAC. The MAAC systems are oper- energy supply from about 24% in 1979 to about 40% in 1988. I ated on a "one-system

• basis under the long existing PJM with a corresponding reduction in oil dependency from 23%

Pooling Agreement. Under this operation. tne MAAC systems to 16%. By 1988 the mix ofinstalled generating capability in participate in economy energy interchange. both within the MAAC is planned to be about 27% nuclear. 32% coal. and region anc with others. wntle maintaining a reliable bulk 37% oil thus providing a favoracle mix of capacity by fuel power system operation. type. In MA AC. the current peak load growth for the 1979-1988 Adequate and reliable power supply for the 1979-1988 penod is expected to average 3.1% per year. reduced from penod is dependent upon: ability to decrease dependency on last year s projection of 3.3% per year. The factors which imported oil; resolution of the nuclear issue; measures to have brought reductions in projected load growth rates since increase the utilization of coal: reasonable and consistent 20

MAAC. POTENTIAL 1MPACT OF NUCLEAR AND CCALUNIT DELAYS ON BULK POWER MAAC. ELECTRIC GENERATION SUPPLY ADECUACY BY PRINC: PAL ENERGY SOURCES

• rwnwner seneon "OFFEeENCE SETWEEM SUM Cp 8&ATS ANo 500% REpstSENTS sMAAE CF ELECTRIC GENERAnCN SY SOUACES NOT SHQWM, INCt.uCANG NET PUMP $ Tam REC,ytEMENTE stowatfies '

estr.AeATT3 '

      =0 l                                                            .                                    ,

so . l c^* * *" i m. i9es

g. . .

                                                            .T-'""***                                                                    .,,
                                ,,,.***....                          PEAE LCAo                y,                             p..**.

ao - t979 ~~..'**' NUCL. EAR 150. 215 % l _ _ scanna oe - -:aeasurv we eus tone 'N <

       .g                                                                               e                  $t4%             COAL                      a2.s %
                        - s.ca.namo.=e             casamun           =s = . e   e.e.==.

g -- e sm===.e.us.6.ame.a m.a. p.

              .v_                      ,_ _
                                                              . ._                   y tsf 1           ! === a= ess             , =      es             ,,

a~* * ' * ' > 1 212 %

f. .. . . .ClL l t19% l M '

• 6 -. 8 I 2.0% 6.MyCRO .3 %

3 1911 tH2 1HS tHa regulatory action: and ongoing programs of conservation and load management. For Ine MAAC systems. sumetent ger.erating capability is planned for instailation to msure. that in eacn year. the proo. acclity ofIoad exceecmg avaitacle generating capacity is not greater. On the average. than one day in ten years. The nu. c! ear port:en of this planned generating capacity program is already under construction. Celays in tne timely ccmpletion j of these units. which may be impacted by the Three Mile

    ! stand accident. will greatly reduce the adequacy of the tulk power succly system l

The ref tactlity of tte M A AC region is being impairec Oy tne i delayec completion of two major transmission links-Hosensact E! rov 500.W and the Baltimore-Wasningten 500

• nV toop. Continued celays of these two profects will mcrease

    'te vulneracility of portons of the regton to potential black-out conditions and tncrease the cost of operation of the MAAC systems.

l i l I k_

8 D 4 3' APPENDIX A-4 1

     ., .t.                                                                . . . .       -           ..        _ .      . _

A _. . j

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        .hfy.

MAIN. TOTAL GENERATING CAPACITY MAIN '

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    .C 7                             BY PRINCIPAL FUEL SOURCES
     -m (summer;                                          ,

MAJOR GENERATING UNIT ADDITIONS . .

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ,. . ?e >.H.

1 , . WEGAWATTS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -sk w                                                                                                                                                                                                 g .O...
                . ufcAWATTS.
                                       ,                                                                           n1000                                                     ..
                                                                                                                                                                                                            ., J.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          .m
      ;       i 8'808                                                                                                                                                                                             ~ ).N '

CCAL, 0 11. 'l# 9 ;CCAL CIL* ' HYDRO' NUCt. EAR

        .      . wa    .
                                                                                                         ,            r          . _ _ .                      ..
                                                                                                                                                                                  .. .            NUCL.           1.'   EAR' M
                                             ., wasme         -                    -

1 a O:[h. ...he. a na .s. .,4 . 6 . _ . , .~ , . . . -..... m

                              ^                                                                                                                                                           ,...

40 - -

                                                                                                                                                                                                       ~~~'

i ,.'# 7

                                                                                                       ^,

5 .... . ... ... . . - . . - s

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f . '. . 6

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ,1*;.

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     ~

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       $                                     )                                                         i            1 ..           ..               - .                . . ..

i 23 . - p AG '  ;

                                                                                                                                                                                                ;r                     -Q)    e. ;

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                                *I I         l        d         **
                                                                                         ,I*   '.

pt~pq FN

                                                        ". . ITil                                 h,  .                  80* 82 84 84 84                     40* 82 84 84 88
    $                                             m. s-                              .e . Q:.

80*' 8184 Se.g. 44

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ,g 9              0                                                                                                            . .                                 ,                                                        4.

r1 82 55 88 r1 42 85 88 71 82 85 IS T1 82 45 88 mee num nas .? 4 E

     *g                                                                                                                         costar                    )       irau.ss  swa ses ssari            l           l e as--

1,

                         .m ,_

_..o-. _ _,o,e su,_. ,, ,_. . w

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         .+ ]

, iJ ... %... &. l 7

   ]

MAIN Regional Assessment j The Mid Amenca Interpool Network (MAIN) consists of 13 should be made onor to adoption of a firm policy. j regular member systems and four associate member groups To meet current load forecasts. MAIN member systems are J located in all or portions of the States of illinots. Missoun. planning generatmg capacity additions which will result in j Michigan. and Wisconstn. reserve margins in excess of 15% dunng the 1979 1988 l 1 For the 1979 1988 penod. aggregate peak loads for the penod. These plans include approximately 12.100 MW of nu-

    @       MAIN region are forecast to increase at a rate of 4 3% com-                                    clear and 5.900 MW of coal. fired generating capacity.

I j pounced annually-- e reduction from last years forecast of At present. coal is the predominant fuel source for electnc j 5.2%. generation in the region. supplying about 70% of the electnc

    '1 MAIN nas established that " current analysts and practices                              energy recutrements. Nuclear generation supplies about 24%

f are consistent with an intenm policy of maintaining a of the energy recuirements. On the basis of the scheduled

   .%       minimum reserve for MAIN as a wnole of 15% each year for                                       completion of the projected generating capacity program. nu-l .j         the next several years." At the time this interim poHev was                                    clear's snare of electric energy supply will increase to about 1 i          establisned (1976L it was recognized that further investiga.                                   42% by 1988. wnereas the proportion supplied by coal.5 red I;           tion of tne parameters that influence reserve recu;rements                                     generation will dectine to about 55%.

1 , t 1 . d_ 1 l l3 l

    'l      22 l  '1 I   '3,

a :1 T,- ] l . MAIN-POTENTIALIMPACTOF NUCLEAR l AND COALUNIT DELAYS ON BULK POWER MAIN-ELECTRIC GENERATION .i ' SUPPLY ADEOUACY BY PRINCIPAL ENERGY SOURCES *

                                                                                             'DP8FERENCE BE7 WEEN $UW 08 PAMT5 ANO 100% REPRESENTS SHAME OF ELECTmc GENERAnCN SY SOURCES NOT SNOWN.
                                                                                                    .NCLUQlNG NET PUM8 STORAGE REQU6MEMENT3.
                             .                                                                                                                           .s s                             ?   ,
                                                                                                                                                               ,e
                                  .m.                                                ,
                                                                                  ,q                                        ,
                                                                                                                                                   *

• A . .i'.

                                                                                                                                                    .             ,q '

CLOWATT NES. 84'

     ; MfcAWATT5 l

• Sums -

7'[.'

     - 11000                               .-                                                  -

70 , e M

   -                                                                                 ,                                                         .                  e 3g  .                                                              - 2.l 50-                                 CAPAtluTY                                                                             1900                 .2
                                              *            ,...   ... =******                                                     ,,*                       '
                                                                                                                                                                     ,1 so .                                .

T*' ** E' - / n.s%

n.-l

                         ---**......                                                       N                           *...-                                .sy 3979   **,,, NUCLEAR 4g.                          -                                                                                                                  'L
                                                           ~

i ~ m- ms - l 33 -

                                                                                                                                                      ,,          (

scomanoe r capaansrv nmLoao Wh . d 23L s nas tonemmeenseeeewe 60.6 % CCAL 512 % 4

                           . . K.a.namomcasseun
                                 . _.                _  _ ame==samour==e===sw==

g eso, = ===. m - _-_ . ' 54- > w vg.. . _,

                                                                                                                                                                      . 4 10   !
                          . ==. aesessesmuse' ==. men3nos seass== { ase '===se                          gg                 gg**        43
                  ;*w                  '
                                       *      '            '          '       #    I 4 1.2%.
                                                                                                                  .~r==..:: . rrrr..

a-NYDAO

                                                                                                                                      -o.a%                   . . .

l 1979 1981 1945 1944 . In the next few years. it is anticipated that the generating capactlity within MAIN will be acequate to meet forecasted loads. provided that the nuclear generation program can be completed on schedule. The longer range situauon is less favoracle. Generaung units planned for service in the 1980's face many uncertatnues. Restraints caused by governmental regulanon. conflicting environmental goats. and Snancial problems all pose threats to an adequate buik power supply. l l Wansmission system reliability is becoming a critical prob-lem in many areas of MAIN due to siting difficulties and finan-ctal constraints. An overall trend toward reduced transmis-sten networic f.exibility prompted by these factors, will lead to a nigner procacility of system outages. i l

APPENDIX A-5 i MARCA TOTAL GENERATING CAPACITY MARCA (U.S.) . BY PRINCIPAL FUEL SOURCES (U.S.) MAJOR GENERATING UNIT ADDITIONS iSummer) , wcamarTs 41000 istcAwafTs

    888 COAL                      CIL             NUCLEAR             !

CCAL CIL* MYCRO NUCLEAR r e 100r - - ~ .

                                  =m.                                              .                                                      ._:

a

                                                                                                              .                                          7

, .0  ; l 1 - -s l ..! 4 s 3 . . .--

                                                                                         .                                                             .I A"                                                                           t                                                          ._

NCNE m i l rw M , 3 a 3 h

              .                steem, omer .                                           40* 82 to 86 84          80* 82 84 84 88     80* 82 le 84 88 s

r

             ,,,,,,..,,,,,,..,,,,,,2..,,,,m ..  - -                                                                                                         .

dsa _= =., , ,_= e., r , r .. _.

             * *-oviera ie=r====. _. - ~ turonne ans comennes cyos commestit                         *ypa pnevious suaanstRTo Suasangst             /      i MARCA Regional Assessment De Mid-Continent Area Reliacihty Coordmation Agree-                     that a coal-Gred unit m the 400-800-MW range be submitted ment (M ARCA) region is composed of 24 systems consisting                   in the " Advance Pfan" for the western Wisconsm utilities.

of eieven investor-owned. eignt G&T cooperatives. two pub- At present. the MARCA area installed generating capacity lic power cistncts. two munte: pal systems, and one rederal mix is 56% coal-Gred.15% nuc! ear.12% hydro. and 17% Agency. The MARCA region. having a total populat on of oil! gas-Sred. On the basis of current plans. the generation aoout 15 million people. covers all of the States of Iowa. mix projected for 1988 is expected to be +35% coal-6ted.15% Minnesota. Necraska. North Datota. most of South Dakota. nuc! ear. S% hycro, and 12% oil / gas-6 red. portions of the States of lilinois. Montana. and Wisconsm. and The MARCA reliability studies and expenence indicate that l the Province of Manitoba. Canada. each system snould maintam a reserve margm of 15% above The cresently projected summer peak demands for the its annual peak load to provide for a proper cegree of ade-United States portion of the MARCA region are expected to cuacy. Based on the currently committed planned unit 3ddi- ! increase at an average annual rate of 5.4% through 1988--a tions indicated aoove. the MARCA reiiacility critena will not reduction from last year s projection of 5.7%. Net generating be satis 6ed in the latter part of tne 1979-1988 forecast capability is projected to mcrease dunng the 1979 1988 penod. At present. there are a number of r.apacity devel-

ened oy 8.1C0 MW. This mciudes seventeen new coal-fired opments m the conceptual and stucy snases being con-units totaling 7.7C0 MW and one 1.100-MW nucl ear generat- sidered for the 1985-1988 pertod wnicn. if implemented.

ing unit. In March 1979. The Wisconsm Public Service Com- would imprnve the currently planned reserve concitions. nission did not soprove the certificate of need for the 1.100- nese include: MW Tyrone nuclear unit. and the Commtssion has requested al A Winnipeg-Nebraska 500-kV tine in conjunction with a 24 L

1 4

                                                                                                                                                                                       .           ~ . ,-l      
     ;                                MARCA (U.S. CNLY)                                                                                                                                                               -

POTENTIALIMPACTOF NUCLEAR AND . MARCA (U.S.) ELECTRIC GENERATION.' J COAL UNIT DELAYS ON BULK POWER BY PRINCIPAL ENERGY SOURCES *

                                 ' SUPPLY ADECUACY

(Summer Seeton *0IFFERENCE BETWEEN SUM CP eARTS AND 100% mEPRESENT3 - d SMAAE oP ELECTRIC GENERAfiCN SY sCURCEs NCT SMCWN. . *.'. s

                                                                                                                           . LNCLuotNG NET PUMP STORAGE AEQUtREMENT3- ; ...
     -                                                          .~           . --                        .                                                                      -
                                                                                                                                                                                                         . . a-
                                                                                                                                                                -  -                              W.d, j                                e                                        s                        .                                   .

v. . .::.'.:

                                                 ~
                                                                , . _                                   \
                                                                                                                                                                                           .; A %
                                *~-                   .--d'-                       ~

[, WEGAwATT5 -

                                                                                                              . xiuRvAITwis                                                .,        . [([.%.y e                                         ...
                                                                           ~

j 4 GW36- . -

                                                                                                                                                                                             + .c. c W a a1000                    _
                                                                                                                    .p                                                                               .-'.         .

• 1s .

                                                             ..                                         t   -,                                 -,
                                                                                                                                                                                  ',         ,, ,               y,,2
                                                                                                                                     ~
                                                                                                                                                                                                   -.

• r.%

CApassuTY

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  .fi i

30-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  .,i
                                                                                                                                                                                                               . -p
                           . . . , , . - T.6it LoAO                                                                                                                                     - . _ , .<          %l 250 ts.                                            p         ,,                  .                1 p

l -

                                                                                                                                                       .           .                           - <             ?* l
     *' 20.                                                   -

f200 '

                                                                                                                                                      ?                        1 988
                                                                                                                                                                                            -.s
                                                                                                                                                                                              ?-                g

?

                                                                                                        'l'

_.- 8 150 - - 21.3% k'f 1979 ,,..NUCLEA . ig,

                           .... ea. - eemanarme ues se ma Loao mes wea. ms ioa  .

26.5 % l ,,..**.. J ,.. ~

                                                                                                                                                                                                               , y, .
                            ~                                     " " " " " " " " " " " " ' " " " '
                            =              __'                                                                                                              CCAL.             70.0 %                -

• 54.2 %

u.m ,, e ,es mus=e  ! 50 ' 35 t .s . . .es . ,._

                        ,-                                            a                               .                                         --. . p--ggg                              p
                                                                                                                                                         *MYDAO

• g , T.3 % , . .l ists tsar toss tsas -

                                                                                                                                                                                                          - s.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ]/J possible capacity purchase of 500 to 800 MW from Man-                                        sociated with new generating units and wtit continue to form itoba Hydro.                                                                                 the backbone of the bulk power transmission system within bl A SCO-MW coal-Erect unitlocated in Iowo and a 500-MW                                            MARCA.

coal 6 rec unit locatec in Nortn or Souta Dakota. Increasing difEculties are being expenenced in meeting c) Peaking unit additions totaling 400 MW in Iowa and scheduled service dates for major transmission lines as a re-Minnesota. suit of vanous legal actions. These lines have been ident Sed Based upon past expenence in the licensing and construc- on Table 3 of the main text. tion of major generating units. It is likely that units scheduled In additton to these lines. the 450-mile Coal Creek-for completion dunng the next ten-year penod will be de- Dickinson :400-kV DC line. scheduled for service in July

       !ayed by some amount. If delays in unit additions occur in                                            1979. has been subjected to repeated acts of vandalism. This accordance with *.ne assumptions indicated in the scenario                                           action. if it continues. Will severely jeccardize the reliability analysts. tne amount of potential ! cad that would not be                                            of the output of the Coal Creek 490-MW unit.

served reliably amounts to as mucn as 3.700 MW by 1988-acout 12% of the projected 1988 toad. This analysis indicates that a condition of power supply inacequacy could develop within the MARCA region in the mid to late 1980 penod. Planned additions to the MARCA 345-kV transmission sys-tem dunng the ten-year penod amount to over 3.000 miles. Most of the 345-kV transmission line additions will be as- -

l l l l 1 SkW.QW tW3 1 1 SERC TOTAL GENERATING CAPACITY SERC SY PRINCIPAL FUEL SCURCES MAJOR GENERATING UNIT ADDITIONS (Summer > a Wr.AwArts 1 I I000 WCAWAITs CCAL Cil NUCLEAR too-CCAL Cll- HYCRO NUCLEAR ..

                                                                                      ?
                                                                                                                                             - w .J 1-a.

a. [ 5 -b 65 ,,

                 .      .                                                   :         s y

r - s . .:

            . o. .;

2

                                                                                                                                                      +

e i

                                    ; ~n
                                       'c iu ne     -

n.; [l-

                                                                                              >       q         -            t g'g'in l,p.,                 .

a m lh I e . si ,,i. , wnuun a n s. n u nn.uu. Him

                           '                                ~

a.. _ . _ _ . _ i

           'si n a u is uo a is u o o is nnu                                              -

c;r-  ! _ . = ;; = t g=., l l l Ch N . 1 .3 8~ D $$I N b. The Southeastern Electnc Reliability Council (SERC) con- completed on schedule. reserve margins in the four SERC

 ;   sists of 28 systems which serve the nine soutneastern states.              Subregions should be adequate for the ten-year pertod. pro-In terms of load servec. SERC is the largest of the nine re-               viced electric loads do not increase to levels above those l     gional reliautlity C0uncils. Because ofits size and the diversity          projected. However. the ability of SERC memeer systems to of charactenstics ofits memcer systems. SERC is divided into               maintain the planned capacity accitions on senedule. particu-four sucregions. namety: Flonda. Southern. Tennessee Valley              'larty the extensive nuc! ear program. is cause for concern.

Authonty (TVA) and VACAR. There is evidence already that some systems are modifying For the 1979-1988 pened. the aggregate peak electnc load their reported generating capacity addition schedules by de-growth for the SERC regton is forecast to average 5.4% per laying certain units. year. reduced from fast year's forecast of 5.9%. To meet Considennq the likely potential for slippages in the cur-current peak load pre;ections. approximately 62.500 MW o,f rently planned generating capacity schedules. and cased on new generating capacity (79 units) is either under construc. current icad forecasts. the SERC systems could face a degra-tion or planned to be added by SERC memoer systems cunng datinn of system adequacy. By 1988. a potential load reduc-tne next ten years. Of this amount, aoout 36.500 MW (60%) is tron of Detween 10 000 rn 15.000 MW may be required to nuclear generation. reflecting the heavy commitment of prcvide an acceptable degree of .inequacy within the SERC SERC member systems to nuclear power. region. Assuming that planned generating capacity additions are ~he Flonda systems are concerned over their ability to 26

4 . SERC POTENTIALIMPACTOF NUCLEAR AND COAL UNIT DELAYS ON BULK POWER SERC. ELECTRIC GENERATION BY PRINCIPAL ENERGY SOURCES, j SUPPLY ADECUACY pmer Season) '

                                                                                                   . DIFFERENCE BETWEEN sum CF PERTS ANO 100% AEPRESENTS                                t
                                                                                                     $NAME oF ELECTmc GENERADON SY sources NOT sHCwN.                                  '4 INCLuoING NET PUMP STORAGE REOutAEMENT3.

IILowArf wis ' supis utCAwAff3 acer- 19g3

   ; 41o00 r

s' l 70s. . ,

                                                                                                                                                                                      .j tis  .                                                                                                                                  .

g CApateuTY .......

                                                                                                                                    ,'e
                                                                                                                                        =                         41.5 %
                                                                                                                                                                                    ]l
                                                          .o                                                                                                                             ;

125 -

                                             .... " ~~.....-                       ~~

soop 1979 ,' NUC . EAR .-q j

                              ~~,,...ync,o #~~ ,, ,,                                                            28%                  ,,.... **,_                                        2 ion.
                                                                                                                                                                                      .6 15   .

2' $4.2% COAL 44.7 % j sca => e.,- cmmun e.eas tome 200 - i 5cL m = neas tone =a 3

                   . ... scamanc.e =    cmen n e             _ es om.es anses ee      =.e.=.a==

ew e ne .

                         .a e   =

r . a ===. -- -~'l 100' I ClL i ^* W - 16.0 % * % 25 L.,,,, ,: F m, = 2.5 C /0.2% {

                                 ,                       a              l===== 3                                         39.3.
                                                                                                                           .         .L. ......
                                                                                                                                             . . . . .. rm l                             ,

4 b ' l ..8" ' 0 4%. [MYCRO d* 4.4% 1918 1982 1945 1948 i centinuously meet Rorida's opacity and particulate emission interconnected with the adjacent regions of SPP. MAIN. , sta9dards. This concern is heightened by the mandatory ECAR. and MAAC. Joint studies between SERC subregions l ;enistles desenbed by the l'377 Clean Air Act. As a result of and these adjacent regions are made on a continuous basis to l the emergency created by the current low sulfur fuel oil assess the adequacy of the interconnected networic. Trans. I shortage. emission standards for some Ronda uitlities have mission in the northern part of Rorida is relatively weak. but l been temporartly relaxed since April 1979 under the plans are underway to strengthen this area. ! Emergency Procedures Provtsions of the C*ean Air Act. How. Factors which affect the proposed construction progtam in I ever, this epneve can only be granted for a maximum penod SERC are similar to those which affect other systems: e.g.. of four months. Thes. In an effor to obtain a permanent solu. adequate and timely rate relief. timely issuance of construc. l tien. Ronda systems have had a heanng before the Ronda tion permits, etc. Investor owned syste Tis operating in Geor-Department of Environmental Regulat.on to review Ronda s gia and Alabama are dealing with state public service com. opacity and particulate standards. A favoraDie result from missions wntch have established polictes cf denymg or se. this heanng would permit compliance with the standaros verely reducing rate requests. If the situation in these states without compromising power supoly capabilities and should fails to improve in the near future. reliability and adequacy Olleviate the fuel oil procurement difficulty. will be directly affected. The TVA. VACAR and Southern subregions have devel. oped a strong internal transmission system which is highly l l t I l

l u i APPENDIX A-7 r ._. _

      'r
                                      . :. :a ~.'                                                                                                               >                                                                                                                                      . ,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                . *,..y
                     .                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           st g l    .                h               - :                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              .
                      ~ UI.'iSFP. TOTAL GENERATING CAPACITY                                                                                                    :

i spp c*.'

     -1 7

O e. .. - . . BY PRINCIPAL FUEL SOURCES j MAJOR GENERAi1NG UNIT ADDITION

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ~;. ',. g g 2c v1 n r: ' ' ..~), . ; ,: t ~:; . ;:.asumm.rl                   --

t

                                                                              .                                                                          -g                g,uam -                                                                                     .                            y.
                    , .: "T ' ;c ~ - . . . . . . .                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ' y.i      4'$.g;g$

t 81000 4

                    ; e c.awam. g.S.' .-3 ' '.. f
                                                                                                                 ,'e    ..'" . --                                                                                                                                                 "

i I (- 8 900.,

                                                                                                                                                           -8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     . "< din y
                                                                                                                                                              '                                      CCAL                                        Olk.                                            5.

W CCAi.l/ ' CIUGAS.

• HYDRO u.1oo , ,,..n . y..a . . :- . ..

r *NUC1.EAREi v

                                     't;r:1.c ..m t ? : '."Y.'

NUCLEAR. i _ . _ , , . . . . ......  ;

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ;; "..  .            y
                   .; _n-n..:,* --                                           .': ;% :. n- :n ya j
                                                                                                                                                       .    .1
                                                                                                                                                                                                    +              ..

s . -'.; m.-Qq.y

                                    -..,..W    . . , :w::v.                       ~. .e. .
                                                                            ..t:. n, ..?.

s .' .. . mw _

                   ;,c. .'                                                                                                    --                                                                             -- - - . - .                  - - - - - -       -

r& . , . .f. ...-.-5..<.

                                                                                                                                                .-         a 7 -
     -                     ,                                      ,.y.                                                                             ,

l + ,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ; w~ ./:..fja.:.,v.
                       . , ..w:                      e . . . -                                                  , ..                                                                                 ,,,
                                                                                                                                                             .                                                                                                         .. ,.m ., , .:.e.
                                                                                        .;                                ?..

2 Qr ;'A:. .:f,. 1 s . r.. .

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           .       .-,-a.-.--

7. .,*'**M

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      . > :o .,
                                                               .                                                                                          .,4       ,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                .. n. . ..      :.

1 =

                                    , ~i O, . ....2-                  ..
                                                                                            --                                                                                  *~
                                                          ;. x. s ;

y  :.,c . .: . :.-: .

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             . =. . e;
                                                                         ~
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    . _ ...w y-T I                  I

t. .-[;;,

40

                                    .:Z%s:-
                                                        .. . . . -  ;. : .,.                               ~,
                                                                                                                     ~.           ,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     . : .+, . .,p;;;;- ,.
        ,-                            4,_,          , ,a, .; - . e. Cts.r*                                                                                         ; 2                                                    -
                               .i m            ,
                                               ;:. . parG                              ,n.                                                                    -

2=-- t

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         . ~~ .:         ..c.

y.m . -

                                                  .. s                                                                                                                                                                                            .
    ;              :_ cw.;                                           -                                                  -
                                                                                                                                                             <                                              -i
                                                                                                                                                                    - i-j                                                            -
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       - e..

M ' ' _ , } 4 ' .%.. !. . y!9 - p,

     .1                                                              a rt q st.I.DTm 9                                                                       ,!                                                                           ps                                                2% 1, i

QM e '

                               .,ms @

wnu== *nuun w n u n,u:;

a. m 4 m u+ i __ _ .

     <             e u      .y.7,..          .        s . .. rs u o u.r. . . o rs u o .                                                                                                 y ~.                                        ,

m- a e ~ 3.<.m _ _ _ , _  %. y _ , ., cx. ,. .m ou.-su .

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     . . .c.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ... .... r < .
                                                                           .          ..                                                                   2      .

b -r l l?  : SPP Regional Assessment a [ The Scuthwest Power Pool (SPP) consists of 40 power change in one or more cf them will cause a dramanc chang suppliers serving a population of almost 21.000.000 located in forecasted loads. in the States of Kansas. Cklahoma. Missoun. Arkansas. Mis- To meet current load forecasts. 40.900 MW of new genera [ sissippt. Louisiana, and Texas. ing units are scheduled to be added within SPP during th I i Por the 1979-1988 penod, the aggregate of the electne 1979-1988 penci Of the case lead capacity to be addet !E pean load projections of the systems in the SPP region results approximately 24% is nuclear and 75% is coal.

    'I            in an average annual compound growth of approximately                                                                                                    At prennt. SPP is highly depencent on natural gas and c
    }             6.1%. *his compares to the forecasted growth rates of 6.2%                                                                                      as a boiler fuel. which supplies almost 70% of the electn

! i f in 1978. 7.1% in 1977. and 7.8% in 1976. The latest reduc- energy regatrements of the cgion. The nuclear and coal-Sre

     ".           tion. while not as large as in the past. Indicates that the mem-                                                                                generating capacity addition program for the next ten year P

bers of SPP still anticipate a reduction in electnc load growth is an attempt by SPP systems to reduce their reliance o

  .Z              caused by such factors as pnce elasticity, energy conserva-                                                                                     natural gas and oil.

tion. and ecor.umc constraints. It is obvious that electric To meet the present forecasted toad demancs in SPP. it .

   -r             growth rate is very sensttive to these factors and any major                                                                                    imperative that the presently planned coal-Gred and nuclea 1     m 3

l

• 1 - ,

5 ', i T E w i 23 v_,_%_.e-e-y e+.w .-*-w ~ * - ^ ^ - * " " - - - - " ' " * ~ ~~

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      *'.' d.      ..,N.E F-         '  AND           COALUNIT DELAYS ON BULK PGWER .                                                                                                 i    P                           SPP-ELECTRIC GENERATION 6                                   -

rSUPPLY ADECUACY . .'- -! .- - BY PRINC! PAL ENERGY SCURCES':

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• y* r-SMAAE C# ELECTRoo GENEnAr.CN 87 SOUACES NOT SHCWNJ..I*.

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generating unit ccnstruction programs continue cri schedule. However. delays are being expertenced with the licensing of these units. The lacx of timely rate relief will also affect the ability of the SPP sg stems to maintain this program on schedule. Should delays centinue to occur, future power sup. ply within the SPP region will become inadequate. D.e curr*M maze of uncertainty wnich has been injected into the electric uulity industry by outside forces causes con. cern on the part of the member systems of SPP. The key factor in future reliacility and adequacy in SPP lies in the l completion of the current generating capacity plans in a ameiy manner without unnecessary delays. l l

APPENDIX A-8 WSCC TOTAL GENERATING CAPACITY BY PRINCIPAL FUEL SOURCES (U.S.) WSCC (U.S.) ) MAJOR GENERATING UNIT ADDITIONS (Summer) w.Awam I x 1000 I. uec4wam t ioco * -l , COAL CIUGAS HYDRO NUCie.AR t So . , 7 - ll s 1

                                                                                                                                       . _ . _ _             1 to .
                                                                                                                                                       ,[j l                                                . .. 4. _ . . 1
                                                                                                                                                          .1 8

to .

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                                                                                                                                                 .. a j f                                                                                             :

e . p' p 3

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[ ' 1' NCNE , , 20 f , h

                                  ~       5                       ~

f , mi n i , a s 40' 82 to le 88 So*8284le84 79 02 83 la 79 82 b5 34 T9 82 IS Is 19 42 SS b r &. _ _ to' 42 84 84 88 - k '* I L*"" l l$T" l j "'f

                 ~~                            ---                                                     _ su_. ro su_.

WSCC Regierus! /Tssiassmerit The area of.Hstern Systems Coordinating Council (WSCC) 49.000 ".i of generating capacity is scheduled to be added covers most of eleven western states and the Province of to meet the current forecasted peak demand and energy re-Sntish Columbia. The region covers a vast geographic quirements. This includes about 19.600 MW cost-fired and area-about one-(nird of the United States-with electne 18 200 MW nuclear capacity. leds widely dispersed and concentrated in centers around The major reliacility asues in the region are the delays in uropolitu areas. The WSCC load constitutes about 19% of the licensing aro constructiori of new base load generating the total United States load. plant; and those major transmission lines required to trans. Long transmission tie lines connect t.w various load cen- port energy into the deficient coastal load areas from remote

ters. and the region can be subdivided int) five major sub- generation areas. To examine the sensitivity ri aower supply l areas which differ widely in load charactenstics, energy adequacy for the WSCC region as a whole. a scenano analysis l sources. and regulatory climate. These include the Northwest of the impact of generating unit delays was carried out. On Power Pool. the Rocky Mountain Power Area. e nzona-New the basis of this analysis. generation reserve levels appear to Mexico Power Area. Southern California-Nevada Pcwer Area. M adequate overalt unless unit delays exceed those post-and Northern California-Nevada Power Area. Demand and ulated in this scenano.

energy growth for the WSCC region as a whole is forecasted However. shortages of caparty lenoing to load curtail-for the next ten years at sbout 4.5% compounded annually, ments are expacted in California and Colorado and are possi-Percas the Rocky Mountain and Arizona-New Mexico Power ble in other areas if planned projects are nnt kept orr Areas are growing at slightly higher rues. Last year, the Rhedule. The pnmary difficulty in California is the current ten-year demano and energy for WSCC was forecasted at regulatory climate which has blocked the construction of all about 5.0%. major generating plants. As a result of this regulatory cli. As energy requirements in the region grow. the major mate. California will be depend ('.t upon out-of-state generat-problem is constructing sufficire 't base load generating plants ing resources. ma!cr new transmission lines. and the willing.

   ' 3 Mep pace with the load. On a regional basis. hydro-alectric               ness of neignooring states to export power. The States of piants :ocated primanly in the Narthwest-provide peaking                      Utah. New Mexico. and Nevada are expressing. increasing  ,                    l capacity. During the 1979-19 tid penod. approximately                         aluctance to continue sucn support at tite expense of their air l

30 l

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                     's' PCTENTTALIMPAC" CF NUCLEARDW AND CCALUNITCELAYS                                                 CN BULKPCY/E'RT W ",N.MdM.?e. nUFSg,.,,,p tggWSCC(U.S.) ELECTR,1C GENERATION'g.]

i g t7,7 - g% . A r.g in.;-- M y e h r -: SY PRINCIPAL ENEnGY SOURC r .- . ,g .. .; 8.".-[7,, , , , SUPPLY ACECUACY.nr.c

                                                         'SummerSeesca)*:;                          ,.                                                      w-         h*'M.Edc- ggggg r2 - *CtFFERO*CE BE"MEEN Suu CF

• ARTS Aho 900% AEP*ESENTS 34

                              .%,7' 9                                                                                       ..._.4
                                                                                                                                                               . SMAAECF ELEC*A*C GENE 4DCN Si sCUACES NOT SHCwM
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NWhhk 5 'S h$ $&i3$5'~ W W~WN _ 1

      @ality. water. and 'uel rescurces.                                                                                                                    demands are made :n me ransmission system to move
            'n C !crado c nstram:s On me output of .he Fort St. Vram                                                                                        avadacle rescurces as needed. As a result of de ine eased

( Outage exposure assccated with !cng 'ines. tne metrepclitan I nu:! ear plant. reg 1.datory delays impacnng Other un:ts. and a

      !ack Of Tansmission mterc0nnecucn capatdity with neighbcr.                                                                                            areas Of he regten are more vulnerable :o interrupncn.

U: dines have become proficent at manganng me :rnpact of mg areas are 20nc sudng to adequacy and rsiiacdity e- :rans::ussion line fadures by means of programmed Icad cur-Scences m t w,9. :f'a.censmg and :enstruenon schedules ,.Or i - l tadment and resteranen procedures. new facices can be mamtamed. .hese def!c:ences wtH not Overan. WSCC expec:s to have adequate generanon capac-c:ntmue mto me 1980's* ity :o meet ferecasted peak Icads. However. power supply

             ""he schedule fer Northwest base ! cad capacty addinens is                                                                                     adequacy c ndinens are likely to detencrate in Califorma and fa!!ing :enmd :ne pre;ected energ/ lead gr:wth. The current                                                                                         ;cssibiy m C !crado leading :o me need f:r selected cur:ad-

• energy n :11y :s :.early dependent u;cn ramfan. Severe ments n :ne summer mentns. F.nergy sacr ages m me ct;ugn: years. as occur ed in 1975 and 1977 mreaten d. ras- Ner nwest are anuc;ated in me winter season and may ::e nc energy cur adments if neeced base icad :apac:y :s de. senous ;n Orcugnt years. :nfrequent shcr:-durauen outages j m scme cmes may Occur dunng the next ten years due :o

        .ayed.                                                                                                                                              Tansmission if".culces. however. no prolonged Or wide-
             ~'he deferrais of Ccistnp Umts 3 and 4. de!:rded m spread ou: ages are expected.

! anctner secucn Of :his Mcrt. celays of me Mid;cmt-Mahn I: is : ucal dat !icer.emg Of generarten and :ransmission i

CC . ;ine. and me ~;iatlo canycn c:!emma are scme of me projects be expedited to restere and mam:ain reliacle elec nc i

l major :m;cnents :f he $reatenmg energy sacr: age, service to me regten. U:llitie s having O tl- fire d generation-particularN :n Scme of tne projects cf greatest concern are: Canferma-.-are expected to be called upcn :o : urn :arge :ia:!o Canycn Umts 1 and 2 uaduces :f ps and oil .c supper nycree!ecme reservoir Paio Verde Um:s 1-3

eveis. 'ntermountain P 0;ect Mest Of .ne WSCC me: 0;olitan ; cad centers are mtercon. C0istnp Umts 3 and 4 nected wita !cng SCO-<V cr 345-kV lires. Because of:he diver. Harry AllemWarner Valley ? ch :

sit" =etween areas m weatner. energy sources. etc.. heavy Pawnee Um:s 1 and 2 Mid;cmt-Malin SCO-kV tine. 31

1 APPENDIX A-9

       . . .              = . _ . .

NPCC TOTAL GENERATING CAPACITY NPCC (U.S.) BY PRINCIPAL FUEL SOURCES (U.S.) MAJOR GENERATING UNIT ADDITIONS , (Summer)

                                                                                                                                                                          ,1.{
                                                                                   .cmns                                                                                '* q A 1000
                                                                                                                                                                .c-              's sicoe CCAL                               HYORO                                    CCAL                     Clk                    NUCLEARc ~~

C11 NUCLEAR

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                                                                                                                                                                         .'3 iMPCC Regional Assessment The Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) consists                  _ _ .           .                                                     .

of twenty-one memeer systems located in New England. New ., NPCC (U.S.) POTENTIAL IMPACT ON CIL  :} York. Ontano, and New Brunswick. It comonses four planning REQUIREMENTS IF NO NEW NUCLEAR OR and operating enttues: the New England Power Pool and the COAL-FIRED UNITS ARE ADDED AFTER 1180 New York Power Poolin the United States. and Ontano Hydro and the New 3runswick Electnc Power Commission m [a Canada. a:wanies ,co - The Unitec States portions of NPCC are heavily dependent saxons uwen .j on oil as a boiler fuel. In 1978. approximately 50% cf all the g,, ,$"' electnc energy produced in New England and New York was J , g t supplied by oil-fired generation. requinng over 164 million 300-l carrels of oil. For the 1979 1988 penod. the aggregate elec- g j tnc load growth for New England and New York is forecast to 250- gw:"4 increase at a rate of approximately 3.1% compounded annu- 1 ally as compared to last year's forecast of 3.5%. About 80% ggg. NON CIL (8.300 MW) of the planned major unit additions to meet this f growtn is nuc! ear. On this basis. the share of electnc energy "* ' ~

                                                                                  ,g,                  huc E,$,                                      -

supplied by nuc! ear generating capacity in New England and anta nao ..h " -f New York is forecast to increase from a tevel of 24% in 1979 ,

                                                                                             ~
                                                                                                           ~

N - to 3M by 1988. Even if all new generating units planned for service dunng the 1979 1988 penod were to come in service l Ctt i on schedule. and if loads do not exceed those now forecast. "' j cti consumption for electne generation in New England and . New Yorr in 1998 would be about the same as in 1979 (al- 3 im inz j itu ins thot.gn the percentage of electnc energy generated by oil *- - would decrease from 53% to 40%). If. however no nuclear or scENA @ ....... sCEN Amo H 32

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i - ;;. C NPCC(U.S.)-ELECTRIC GEN ERATION 0 '

                          ^   "    NPCC(U.S.CNLY)                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Q k emecs P ":

1.'?armEm BYsuuPRINCIPALENER

 ;                      POTENTIALIMPACT OF NUCLEAR ::::'*N 4                                                      -
                                                                                                                                                    .R .%-M<r ic. -- -.; ; > .7                                                         e. O .  .;

AND COALUNIT CELAYS ON BULK POWERf6.9 t cP mrs ao ocs newserts : r T .* *- sHAAE cP ELECrRfC GENERAr1CW 8Y SCUACE3 NCT sNowM. SUPPLY ACECUACY../*'. 7 3 . . g. ((:y(.. i. *. +j T

                                                        #                                                                                                   WC:.DCANG NET PUMP STCRAGE PECulAOdENr3.

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                                                ~.w. - ~ .r._-m , 'e.-K.,,:3. C&. - . . . , _-ww-.~1 capacty delays have not resulted in sancus reserve dedcen.

a14 red um:s were to c:me on-ime after 1979. ct! c:nsump-ces secause load forecasts have been progressively lowered Ocn would increase by more man 50% (accut ICC million narraist and would represent $1% of New bgland and New every year for the pas Sve years. 3cta future ec:ncrme Yorf s :::a1 elecmc requirements. grewtn and energy requirements are subject to great uncer-tamnes: me fac:;s nat elecmc ! cad and energy requirements hus. me ahdity to c:nnnue en senecule wt:n me nuc: ear over me next ten years cannet new be precicted with any um:r new planned for New Y:tr and New England is cf vital degree of prec: sten. Should elec=c Icads grow faster man im;0r:ance to me pecpje of ecse areas. Even assunung that presently f: recast. Or should suttannal delays in new capac.

cacs do nct grow at rates m excess cf:nese new ferecast and ity cenunue. Or should tne use of any fuels be constrained by mit mere are no 'urther delays in presently scneduled gen-adnumst auve Or other accens. Ce acility Of NPCC's mem-erat:en facd!nes. New Yorx and New England wd1 c:nunue to bers :: =ntmue to previce adequate and reiiable elecme be .:qnly vuinera:!e :o any .ew :1 emnargo and me:r sernce would be sencusly impairec.

ec:n =:es will remain at nazard to CPEC-cic:3:ed mcreases Secause of me many uncertamnes facmq elect.c unlit:es tn ;n:es for u .;cr ed 011. A =ntnuac:n cf delays such as

Ocay. t is impcriant to censider the reliacdity and c st con-

        $cse wmch have plagued me generacng capac2ry addinens sequences Of havmg either too lit !e :r ::o much generstng i

pr:gra.m wcule sigmficantiv wersen me sm;at:en. ca:acty. Recent studies carned cut by :ne Elecmc ?:wer l c.e .ts::ry of delays 'n me nuclear ;r: gram is not en- Researen 'nsutute (EPRI). :nd =ndrmed tn analyses per. couragmg. :7unng me penoc 1975 mrcugn 1978 me!ustve* :f i for- ec by a a.umcer of NPCC memOer systems. have demen-14 nuclear units seneculed for future serace m New Eng!and and New Y:rt. two were dre;;ed. wm!e me remainmg 12 s: rated : hat :ne net cost to the censumer assocatec wt:n too much generatmg capac:ty is censiderably :ess than hat as-wtre celayed an average of 4% years each. Many Of me delays exper:enced m me c m;Ienon of naw

                                                                                                                                              .sw. m n.,cee, e :s7s cr e.c.mnny i zaww aw.w =                                                              ww c.ai .e nuclear anc Otner non-ctl-bun.mg units were caused y ce-w w.wme, ms .. o a ..<nene m m P** wav v m sm. w s.-

lays .n me regulatory process. Caers have :een brougnt yw

                                                                                                                                                 ,, y.r,as,m   , , s,.amusa, y ,,, ...ma a se .,                 wae,    s.. wtoewe            Pwe,ca.ne.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ,                      ,,. . . mm.u 1 cut by me fa'. lure of state regulatory commissions t: ;r -

w a* w m e m .mae w =* o* m eem ma meaan.vem- =a me vide acequate rate relief :n a umely :: asis. mvs .awm s m. =emiai=riu.a e o.ma am to nn = :nmm-. m . c,a,,,,, crem an acequacy stanc;omt. tnese already-expenenced 33 , 1 1 1

I~ ? APPENDIX B-1 Regional Transmission Lines-Miles T J , 1 1 3 NQ_? AGE fvv) 1 WAC WlM meGICN 230 345 500 76s 250 400-450 900 1000 I EXIST!fG (1-1-79) 5 ECAR 898 9.545 730 1.329 0 0 0 0 } ERCCT 0 3.895 0 0 0 0 0 0 MAAC 4.295 160 1.263 0 0 0 0 0 I MAIN 258 4.756 0 90 0 0 0 0 j MARCA (U.S.) 6.464 3.248 0 0 465 436 0 0 i NPCC (U.S.) 1.518 3.647 5 155 0 0 0 0 SERC 15.657 2 4.246 0 0 0 0 0 3 SPA 2.831 2.762 1.405 0 0 0 0 0 y wSCC (U.S.) 29.942 6.025 7.366 o o o 844 o e g PGC (U.S.) 60.763 34.040 15.015 1.574 465 436 844 0 MARCA (CANADA) 2.364 0 0 0 581 556 0 0 N3CC (CANACA) 7.196 226 645 0 0 0 0 0 mSCO (CANACA)  !.597 ?21 2.213 0 94 0 0 0 9 3 FGC ( 7CTA1.) 71.910 34.587 17.673 1.574 1.140 992 844 0 J i

  ,        UNCER CCNSTRUCTICN. CONIWr.D CR PLANTED (1979-1983)

ECAR 192 1.902 197 645 0 0 0 0 4 ERCCT C 2.033 0 0 0 0 0 0 j MAAC 789 16 376 0 0 0 0 0 MAIN 2 962 55 0 0 0 0 0 t' MARCA (U.S.) 853 2.116 344 0 0 0 0 0 NPCC (U.S.) 44 418 0 9 0 0 0 0

;          SERC                          3.295            0       1.786       0'              O            O            O             O I

a SPA 1.235 2.112 459 0 0 0 0 0 i mSCO (U.S.) 2 . 4 "> 3.222  ?.442 0 0 0 0 0 l

  'i       PERC      (U.S.)              8.886      12.781        6.659    654                0            0            0             0l l

I MARCA (CANACA) 103 0 126 ' 0 0 0 0 0 q M3CC (CANACA) (85) 387 720 0 0 0 0 0

  .,       WSCO (CANADA)                       27         o       ?.I$4        o              o            o            0             0 l 1

1 FGC ( TCTA1. ) 8.931 13.168 8.659 654 0 0 0 0

  ?

a

 .1                                                                                                                                      l l

d i continued from previous page j i sociated with too little. Furthermore. for systems with a high an important role in reducing this region s reliance on oil for 1 percentage of oil-fired generauon---as is the case in New York electric generation through the use of economy or fuel con-y and New England-there may be no penalty at all for so. servation interchanges. Since nuclear and coal fired umts will called excess generauen. since the optimum level of reserves be located significantly further from load centers. the neec

     ;    resulting in the lowest cost to the consumer is substantially  for transmission facilities to integrate these units into the d        higher than the minimum level of reserves based solely on      system may be substanttally greater than would be indicated reliability considerations,                                    by load growth alone.

The bulk transmission system in NPCC is expected to play Like generattori. neeced transmiss.on facilities also are 34 1

vtuact twv) wac w oEGICN 220 345 500 765 250 600-450 800 1000 UNCEIl CCNSTRUCTICN. COMMITTED CR Pt.NNED (1984-1988) ECAR 118 1.648 130 1.090 0 0 0 0 ERCCT C 1.967 0 0 0 0 0 0 MAAC 496 17 83 0 0 0 0 0 MAIN O 914 0 0 0 0 0 0 MARCA (U.S.) 531 1.028 640 0 0 0 0 0 0 922 0 80 0 0 0 0 M3CC (u.S.1 SERC 1.798 0 1.497 2 0 0 0 0 SPA 1.170 2.501 813 0 0 0 0 0 (U.S.) 2.000 eis 2.343 0 0 0 ( 944 )* 2.s47 wSCO WC (U.S.) 6.113 9.832 5.506 1.172 0 0 (844)* 2.847 MARCA (CANADA) 250 0 76 0 0 0 0 0 N3C0 (CANACA ) 0 168 0 0 0 0 0 0 94 0 919 0 0 0 0 0 CSCO (CANADA) M!RC (TC7AL) 6.447 10.000 6.501 1.172 0 0 ( 844 )* 2.847

         'C::NvERSION 7C 1000-<V MVOC.

TOTAL: EXISTING. UPCER CCNSTRUCTICN, COMMI6 s eu CR Pt.NNED (12-31-88) 1.208 13.115 1.057 3.064 0 0 0 0 CCAR 0 7.895 0 0 0 0 0 0 ERCCT 5.580 193 1.722 0 0 0 0 0 MAAC 260 6.632 55 90 0 0 0 0 MAIN 6.392 984- 0 465 436 0 0 MARCA (U.S.) 7.848 4.987 5 244 0 0 0 0 M3CC (U.S.) 1.562 20.750 2 7.529 2 0 0 0 0 SERC 5.236 7.375 2.677 0 0 0 0 0 SRA 10.062 13.151 0 0 0 0 2.s47 eSCC ( U.S. ) _ 33.319 , NERC (U.S.) 75.762 56.653 27.180 3.400 465 436 0 2.847 0 202 0 581 556 0 0 MAACA (CANADA) 2.717 7.111 781 1.365 0 0 0 0 0 1 NACC (CANADA) *

                             !.698          321      4.096            0             94                0          0           0 wSCO (CANADA)

PERC (TOTAL) 87.288 57.755 32.833 3.400 1.140 992 0 2.847 l l l l contmued from previous page b:mg subjected to delays due to the regulatory dif5culues. A tatned dunng heavy load conditions and muluple conungen. Wtst Walpole Needham 345 kV line--iocated in the 3cston etes could result in loss ofload in the Boston area, at:a--had been planned for service by June 1983. Extended in Ontano delays have been exponenced in the licensing d:1 ys in regulatory heanngs and approvals have precluded of Ley segments of the 500-kV transmission system as-tas insta11 anon of tnis circuit any sooner than March 1985. sociated with the Bruce nuclear generating plant. This has Dunng this two-year delay period. the reliability of the resulted in the need to limit the operanon of this plant. thus transmission system supplying the Boston area will be in- imposing economic penalues and. in addition. has impaired adequate. Sausfactory system voltages may not be main- system reliability. 35

 ~

APPENDIX B-2 Subregiamal Transmission Lines-Miles vtLT A M fyy? wv&C w SUBPEGICN  ??O 345 500  ?$5 250 400-450 900 1000 EXISTIfG (1-1-79 Td YCRK 1.075 2.109 5 155 0- 0 0 0 MDv ENGL#c 664 1.539 0 0 0 0 0 0 FPCC (U.S. ) 1.519 3.648 5 155 0 0 0 0 CN7ARIO 6.879 3 645 0 0 0 0 0 Tw 3RwsstCx 317 223 0 0 0 0 0 0 F8CO (CANACA) 7.196 226 645 0 0 0 0 0 P.CR!DA 3.458 0 233 0 t 0 0 0 SCU7KRN 5.447 0 935 0 0 0 0 0 7VA 30 2 1.758 0 0 0 0 0 VACAR 6.722 0 t.220 0 0 0 0 0 SERC 15.657 2 4.246 0 0 0 0 0 NWAO (U.S.) 12,651 2.436 3.388 0 0 0 264 0 AMPA 2.837 181 0 0 0 0 0 0 AZ-NM 1.903 2.854 1.157 0 0 0 0 0 S.CA-NV 4.631 554 1.402 0 0 0 580 0 N.CA-NV 6.820 0 1.419 0 J O O O WSCO (U.S.) 28.862 6.025 7.366 0 0 0 844 0 UNCER C6TRUCTICN. CONITTED CR P!)NNED (1979-1983) MDv YCRK 44 304 0 9 0 0 0 0 Tn ENGLANO O t13 0 0 0 0 0 0 PPCC (U.S. ) 64 417 0 9 0 0 0 0 CN7ARIO (85) 0 720 0 0 0 0 0 44 3RW SdICK O 387 0 0 0 6 0 0 PPCC (CANAQA) (85) 387 720 0 0 0 0 0 P.CRIDA 733 0 125 0 0 0 0 0 SCUTMRN 745 0 324 0 0 0 0 0 7VA 0 0 820 0 0 0 0 0 VACAR  !.917 0 $17 0 0 0 0 0 SERC 3.295 0 1.796 0 0 0 0 0 PfaAA (U.S.) (146) 1.249 2.265 0 0 0 0 0 AMPA 1.219 833 0 0 0 0 0 0 AZ-NM 605 576 533 0 0 0 0 0 S.CA-NV 292 143 644 0 0 0 0 0 l N.CA-NV 716 421 0 0 0 0 0 0 wSCC (U.S.) 2.476 3.222 3.662 0 0 0 0 0 i 36 l

 \

s. f .. h.. .- , 1 e n ? AGE PKV1 WAc W SLstEGICH 230 345 500 765 250 400-450 e00 toco (2CER C24STRUCTICN CONITTED CR PUNED (1944-1944) - *~

                                                                                                                                               +t i               PEW YCHK                           0     249            0        90                 0         0              0          0]

r eEW e<x.uc o m o o e o o o . I t@CC (U.S. ) 0 922 0 80 0 0 0 0 CN7ARIO O O O O O O O O. I PEW Sm>dWICK o 16e o o o o o o PPCC (CANADA) 0 168 0 0 0 0 0 0 PU34!DA 154 0 331 0 0 0 0 0 SOUDERN 440 0 633 0 0 0 0 0 TVA 0 0 247 2 0 0 0 0 VACAR i.184 0 2Ja, o o o o o ' SERC 1.798 0 1.497 2 0 0 0 0 NWPA (U.S.) 491 156 1.100 0 0 0 (264)* 530 i RMPA 1.111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 AZ-NM 45 702 398 0 0 0 0 791 5.CA-NV 65 (84) 710 0 0 0 (580)* 1.526 N.CA-NV . 28a 41 135 o o e o o wSCC (U.S.) 2.000 815 2.343 0 0 0 ( 644 )* 2.847

                            'C::NVERSICH TO 1C00-KV HVDC.

TOTAL: EXISTING t#CER C2tSTRUCTICN, CONITTED CR Pt.#NED (12-st-8a) PEW YCRK 1.119 2.662 5 244 0 0 0 0

                   . NDi ENGLAND                    444    2.32s             o          o                o         o              o         o t@CC (U.S.)               1.543      4.987             5      244                  0         0             0          0 CNTARIO                   6.794             3    1.365            0                0         0              0         0
                     .tEW SRt.NSWICK                 317      ne             o          o                o         o  ,

o o PPCC (CANACA) 7.111 781 1,365 0 0 0 0 0 R.OR!DA 4.345 0 689 0 0 0 0 0 SOUDERN 6.652 0 1.892 0 0 0 0 0 TVA 30 2 2.825 2 0 0 0 0 i VACAR 9.723 0 2.123 o o o o o SERC 20.750 2 7.527 2 0 0 0 0 Nwpp (U.S.) 12.996 3.841 6.753 0 0 0 0 330 ' RMPA 5.167 1.014 0 0 0 0 0 0 AZ-NM 2.353 4.132 2.088 0 0 0 0 791 i S.CA-NV 4.978 613 2.756 0 0 0 0 1.526 { N.CA-NV 7.924 462 1.fs4 o o o e o

          !            uSCC (U.S.)           33.318       10.062      13.151            0                0          0             0     2.847           l i                                                                                                                                                l l                                                                                                                                   37 l                                                                                                                                                <

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