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{{#Wiki_filter:.. Duke {-Energy December 1 8, 20 1 2 Serial: HNP-12-139 ATTN: Document C ontro l De s k U.S. Nuclear R e gu l atory Co mm i ss ion Washington , DC 20555-000 1 Sh ea r o n Harris Nuclear P o wer Plant , Unit 1 Dock e t No. 50-400 | |||
==Subject:== | |||
Evacuation Time Es timate s Ana l ysis L a die s and Gent l emen: Oavld H. Corlett Superv i s o r , Ucenslng{Regu lat o r y Pr og ram s Harris Nu c l ear Pla nt S413 Harr i s Rd N ew H ill N C 27562-9300 9 1 9-362-313? 1 0 CF R 50.4 10 C FR 50.47(b)(l0) 10 CF R 50, Appendix E Carolina Power & Li g ht Co mpany i s submitting an updat e d evacuation time es timate (ETE) ana l ysis for the Harri s Nuclear Plant. The r ev ised E TE anal ys i s i s be i ng submitted in accor dance w i th I 0 CFR 50.47(b)(l | |||
: 0) and 10 CFR 50 , App e ndi x E, Section IV , pa rag r a ph 4. The e nclosu re to thi s l etter provide s the E T E ana l y s i s report. This s ubmittal contains no re g ulatory commitments. | |||
P l ease refer an y question s r ega rdin g this s u bmitta l to me at (9 1 9) 362-3137. Sincerely , DHC/mgw E nc l osure: Evacuation Time Es timate s Ana l ysis cc: Mr. J.D. Au sti n , NRC Sr. R es ident I nspector , HNP Ms. A T. Billoch Co lon, NRC Project Manager , HNP Mr. V. M. Mc C ree , NR C Regi o n a l Administrator , Region II Document Control Desk Serial: HNP 139 Enclosure Shearon Harris Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 1 Docket No. 50 | |||
-400 Evacuation Time Estimates Analysis KLD Engineering Report KLD TR | |||
-506, Harris Nuclear Plant Development of Evacuation Time Estimates (565 pages plus cover) | |||
December2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-506 HarrisNuclearPlantDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforDukeEnergy,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com SIGNATURE LIST ________ __J/ l d.-)3 Duke Energy Date Project Lead, Eme r gency Pr epa r edness A !f-JrJI-' A _-------__ __,/ 12-. I 2. l tl-K LD Enginee ring , P.C.-Sento r Project Manager Harr is Nucl ea r Pl ant Eva cua tion Ti me Es timat e tz./zlc?-Date KLD Eng i neering, P.C. Rev. 1 HarrisNuclearPlantiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 21.2TheHarrisNuclearPlantLocation..............................................................................................1 41.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 61.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy............................................................................................1 102STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 73 93.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 103.4Employees............................................................................................................................... | |||
.3 153.5MedicalFacilities......................................................................................................................3 193.6TotalDemandinAddi tiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 193.7SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 193.8SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 224ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtotheHNPStudyArea............................................................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Freeways............................................................................................................................4 74.3.4Intersections......................................................................................................................4 84.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 85ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background............................................................................................................................... | |||
.5 15.2FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 115.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 125.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 155.4.3TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................5 166DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 17.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................7 17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 1 HarrisNuclearPlantiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 27.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 47.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 47.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 67.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 78TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 48.3MedicalFacilityDemand............................................................................................................8 48.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................8 58.5SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................8 119TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUAT IONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 1ListofAppendicesA.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 13C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 13C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 13C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C 16D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.FACILITYDATA....................................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.3SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F 3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F 3F.3.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F 8F.3.3TimeDistributionResults.....................................................................................................F 10F.4Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 12G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1G.2Securi tyRoadBlocks.................................................................................................................G 2HEVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1 HarrisNuclearPlantiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.SUB ZONEBOUNDARIES....................................................................................................................L 1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3M.4Effectof50%ReductioninCapacityandFreeFlowSpeedforIceScenarios..........................M 5M.5EffectofAdditionalConstructionEmployeesatPeakConstructionYearof2022..................M 5N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentio nallyskipped HarrisNuclearPlantivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofFiguresFigure1 1.HNPLocation...........................................................................................................................1 5Figure1 2.HNPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................1 8Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.HNPEPZ..................................................................................................................................3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 5Figure3 3.PermanentRe sidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 6Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 8Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector.....................................................................................................3 9Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 13Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 14Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 17Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 18Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams..........................................................................................................4 10Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 10Figure5 3.ComparisonofDa taDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................5 13Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 19Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUn stagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion...................................................................................................................................5 21Figure6 1.HNPEPZSubZones.................................................................................................................6 7Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................7 17Figure7 2.HNPShadowRegion.............................................................................................................7 18Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................7 19Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 20Figure7 5.CongestionPa tternsat1Hour30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.........................7 21Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2Hours30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.......................7 22Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat3Hours25MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.......................7 23Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 24Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03......................................................7 25Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 11.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 15.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 16.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................7 29Figure7 18.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................7 29Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................7 30Figure7 20.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................7 30Figure7 21.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03..................................................7 31Figure7 22.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario14forRegionR03..................................................7 31Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................8 13Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes.............................................................................................8 14Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandRelocationSchools........................................10 2 HarrisNuclearPlantvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.EvacuationRoutes..............................................................................................................10 3FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 5FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 7FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 15FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................................E 14FigureE 2.OverviewofChildCareCenterswithintheEPZ....................................................................E 15FigureE 3.ChildCareCenterswithinSub ZoneE..................................................................................E 16FigureE 4.ChildCareCenterswithinSub ZonesFandG.......................................................................E 17FigureE 5.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 18FigureE 6.OverviewofMajorEmployerswithintheEPZ......................................................................E 19FigureE 7.MajorEmployerswithinSub ZoneE.....................................................................................E 20FigureE 8.MajorEmployerswithinSub ZonesFandG.........................................................................E 21FigureE 9.CampgroundswithintheEPZ................................................................................................E 22FigureE 10.OverviewofParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZ...............................................E 23FigureE 11.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSub ZoneE.............................................................E 24FigureE 12.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSub ZonesFandG..................................................E 25FigureE 13.GolfCourseswithintheEPZ................................................................................................E 26FigureE 14.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ.........................................................................................E 27FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 4FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 4FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F 5FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F 6FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 7FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 8FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F 9FigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets...........................................................................................F 9FigureF 10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..............................................................F 11FigureF 11.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F 11FigureF 12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 12FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlocksfortheHNPSite.........................................G 3FigureG 2.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZoneE.....................................G 4FigureG 3.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZonesEandF..........................G 5FigureG 4.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZoneG.....................................G 6FigureG 5.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHighway55&HighHouseRd......................................G 7FigureG 6.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHighway55&WilbonRd............................................G 8FigureG 7.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHi ghway55&USHighway64(West)Ramps..............G 9FigureG 8.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1415&HWY401...............................G 10FigureG 9.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1427&HWY401...............................G 11FigureG 10.Existin gTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1443&HWY401.............................G 12FigureG 11.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&HWY401.............................G 13FigureG 12.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&HWY210.............................G 14FigureG 13.Existin gTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&SR1513...............................G 15FigureG 14.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-HWY210&HWY401&HWY421.......G 16 HarrisNuclearPlantviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 15.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1412&HWY401.............................G 17FigureG 16.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1431&SR1412...............................G 18FigureG 17.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-2529HarnettCentralRd......................G 19FigureG 18.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC 540TOLL&GreenLevelWestRd............................G 20FigureG 19.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-USHWY64&KellyRd...................................................G 21FigureG 20.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC55&NC 540TOLL....................................................G 22FigureG 21.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC 540TOLL&OldUSHWY1.......................................G 23FigureG 22.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-USHWY64&NC540TOLL............................................G 24FigureG 23.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC55BYPASS&NC 540TOLL.......................................G 25FigureG 24.ProposedSecurityRoadBlock-NC55&NC 540TOLL.....................................................G 26FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 4FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 6.RegionR06.............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 7.RegionR07...........................................................................................................................H 10FigureH 8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H 12FigureH 10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H 13FigureH 11.RegionR11.........................................................................................................................H 14FigureH 12.RegionR12.........................................................................................................................H 15FigureH 13.RegionR13.........................................................................................................................H 16FigureH 14.RegionR14.........................................................................................................................H 17FigureH 15.RegionR15.........................................................................................................................H 18FigureH 16.RegionR16.........................................................................................................................H 19FigureH 17.RegionR17.........................................................................................................................H 20FigureH 18.RegionR18.........................................................................................................................H 21FigureH 19.RegionR19.........................................................................................................................H 22FigureH 20.RegionR20.........................................................................................................................H 23FigureH 21.RegionR21.........................................................................................................................H 24FigureH 22.RegionR22.........................................................................................................................H 25FigureH 23.RegionR23.........................................................................................................................H 26FigureH 24.RegionR24.........................................................................................................................H 27FigureH 25.RegionR25.........................................................................................................................H 28FigureH 26.RegionR26.........................................................................................................................H 29FigureH 27.RegionR27.........................................................................................................................H 30FigureH 28.RegionR28.........................................................................................................................H 31FigureH 29.RegionR29.........................................................................................................................H 32FigureH 30.RegionR30.........................................................................................................................H 33FigureH 31.RegionR31.........................................................................................................................H 34FigureH 32.RegionR32.........................................................................................................................H 35FigureH 33.RegionR33.........................................................................................................................H 36FigureH 34.RegionR34.........................................................................................................................H 37FigureH 35.RegionR35.........................................................................................................................H 38FigureH 36.RegionR36.........................................................................................................................H 39FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 9 HarrisNuclearPlantviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 9FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)............J 10FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)............................J 10FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5).............................................................................................................................................J 11FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)..............J 11FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J 12FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)..................................J 12FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)..............J 13FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)...........................J 13FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,We ekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11).............................J 14FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)...........................................................................................................................................J 14FigureJ 13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)............................................................................................................................................J 15FigureJ 14.ETEandTripGeneration:Su mmer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)............................................................................................................................................J 15FigureK 1.HarrisLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork........................................................................................K 2FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K 3FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Gri d2.....................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K 9FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K 10FigureK 10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K 11FigureK 11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K 12FigureK 12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K 13FigureK 13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K 14FigureK 14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K 15FigureK 15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K 16FigureK 16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K 17FigureK 17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K 18FigureK 18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K 19FigureK 19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K 20FigureK 20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K 21FigureK 21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K 22FigureK 22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K 23FigureK 23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K 24FigureK 24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K 25FigureK 25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K 26FigureK 26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25...............................................................................K 27FigureK 27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26...............................................................................K 28FigureK 28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27...............................................................................K 29FigureK 29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28...............................................................................K 30FigureK 30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29...............................................................................K 31 HarrisNuclearPlantviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30...............................................................................K 32FigureK 32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31...............................................................................K 33FigureK 33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32...............................................................................K 34FigureK 34.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33...............................................................................K 35FigureK 35.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34...............................................................................K 36FigureK 36.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35...............................................................................K 37FigureK 37.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36...............................................................................K 38FigureK 38.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37...............................................................................K 39FigureK 39.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38...............................................................................K 40FigureK 40.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39...............................................................................K 41FigureK 41.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40...............................................................................K 42FigureK 42.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid41...............................................................................K 43FigureK 43.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid42...............................................................................K 44FigureK 44.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid43...............................................................................K 45 HarrisNuclearPlantixKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 1Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 6Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons..........................................................................................................1 11Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 7Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySubZone....................................................3 4Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 7Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 12Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 16Table3 6.HNPEPZExternalTraffic.........................................................................................................3 21Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 23Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 24Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.MappingDistri butionstoEvents............................................................................................5 11Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 11Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUn stagedEvacuation....................5 18Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.........................5 20Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRe gions...........................................................................................6 6Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 8Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 9Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario................................................................................................6 10Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.........................7 10Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 12Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 14Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 15Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 16Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................8 15Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................8 16Table8 3.RelocationSchoolsforSchoolsandChildCareCenters.........................................................8 18Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemand............................................................................................8 20Table8 5.Su mmaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 22Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 24Table8 7.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..........................8 28Table8 8.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain..........................................8 31Table8 9.SchoolandChil dCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesIce.............................................8 34Table8 10.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes........................................................................8 37Table8 11.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................8 38Table8 12.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................8 40Table8 13.Tran sitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIce...........................................................8 42Table8 14.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeather.............................................8 44 HarrisNuclearPlantxKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 15.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain..............................................................8 46Table8 16.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesIce.................................................................8 48Table8 17.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates....................................8 50TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 8TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E 2TableE 2.ChildCareCenterswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 3TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 5TableE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 7TableE 5.CampgroundswithintheEPZ.................................................................................................E 10TableE 6.ParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZ.......................................................................E 11TableE 7.GolfCourseswithinth eEPZ...................................................................................................E 13TableE 8.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 13TableF 1.HarrisTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan...................................................................................F 2TableH 1.PercentofSub ZonePopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion................................................H 2TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHi ghestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 4TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J 5TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)...........................................................................................................................J 6TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J 7TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 46TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled.........................................K 148TableM 1.EvacuationTi meEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableM 4.ETEVariationfor50%IceReduction-Scenario8................................................................M 5TableM 5.ETEVariationfor50%IceReduction-Scenario11..............................................................M 5TableM 6.ETEforPeakConstructionYear2022...................................................................................M 6TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1 | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE | |||
==SUMMARY== | |||
ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheHarrisNuclearPlant(HNP)locatedinWakeCounty,NorthCarolina.ETEprovideDukeEnergyandStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,December2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG 0654/FE MA REP 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities,10CFR50,AppendixE.OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinMarch,2012andextendedoveraperiodof9months.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingwithDukeEnergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010. StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheHNP,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofth ehighwaynetwork. SynthesizedthisinformationtocreateananalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweenth eEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey. AdataneedsmatrixwasprovidedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting.TheOROsprovidedallavailabledatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andsp ecialfacilitiesintheEPZ. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Thetrafficdemandandtrip generationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto14Sub Zones.TheseSubZonesarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof36EvacuationRegions. Thetime varyingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain,Ice).OnespecialeventscenarioforFourthofJulyonJordanLakewasconsidered.OneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonUS 1northbound(fromNewHillHollemanRdtoI 40)andUS 64eastbound(fromNC 751toI 40)fo rthedurationoftheevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5milesareevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: Arapidlyes calatingaccidentattheHNPthatquicklyassumesthestatusofarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplementedsuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisvirtuallycoincidentwiththesirenalert,an dnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthestatedpercentageofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncentersorhostschoolslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtono tpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthecountyevac uationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllikewisebeevacuatedwithpublictransit,asneeded:bus,minivan,passengercar,wheelchairtransportorambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEarecalculatedforthetransit dependentevacuees,forhomeboundspecialneedspopulation,andforthoseevacuatedfr omspecialfacilities. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Attended"final"meetingwithDukeEnergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernmentstopresentresultsfromthestudy.ComputationofETEAtotalof504ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe36EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe14EvacuationScenarios(36x14=504).Sepa rateETEarecalculatedfortransit dependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofETEassumesthat20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidetheimpactedregion,willel ectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.TheimpedancethatcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfo rtheimpactedregion.Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter in place.Once90%ofthe2 mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillev acuateeventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter in place.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Eachlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;ea chnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),th ensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofthepopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.These HarrisNuclearPlantES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1statisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.TrafficManagementThisstudyreferencesthecomprehensiveexistingtrafficmanagementplansprovidedbyChatham,Harnett,LeeandWakeCounties.SeveraladditionaltrafficcontrolpointsaresuggestedinAppendixGtofacilitatetrafficflowtothenewlyconstructedNC 540Tollhighway.Theseadditionaltrafficcontrolmeasureshavebeenreviewedandapprovedbytheemergencymanagementagencies.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformoffiguresandtablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6displaysamapoftheHNPEPZshowingthelayoutofthe14Sub Zonesthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3pr esentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachSub Zonebasedonthe2010Censusdata. Table6 1defineseachofthe36EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofSubZones. Table6 2liststheEvacuationScenarios. Tables7 1and7 2arecompilationsofETEforthegeneralpopulation.Thesedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopul ationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherre gionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Tables7 3and7 4presentETEforthe2 mileregionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table8 7presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. Table8 11presentsETEforthetransit dependentpopulationingoodweather. FigureH 8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.Mapsofal lregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor504uniquecases.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheseETErangefrom1:00(hr:min)to3:40atthe90 thpercentile. InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile.ThisistheresultofthecongestionwithintheEPZ.Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatrates HarrisNuclearPlantES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1somewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.SeeFigures7 9through7 22. InspectionofTable7 3andTable7 4indicatesthatastagedevacuat ionprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles(compareRegionsR02andR04throughR12withRegionsR27throughR36,respectively,inTable7 1).SeeSection7.6fo radditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios5(summer,midweek/weekend,evening)and13(summer,weekend,evening)inTable7 2indicatesthatthespecialeventdoesnotmateriallyaffecttheETE.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonUS 1andonelaneeastboundonUS 64-doesnothaveamaterialimpacton90 thpercentileETE.Bothroadwaysareoperatingbelowcapacitythroughoutthedurationoftheevacuation,withtheexceptionofsomesignalizedintersectionsalongUS 64experiencingLOSF.Availablecapacityonothermajorevacuationroutes,mostnotablyNC 540TollandNC 55northboundalleviatesanynotablenegativeimpactcausedbyclosingonelan eonbothUS 1andUS 64.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ThepopulationcentersofApex,HollySpringsandFuquay Varinaarethemostcongestedareasthroughouttheevacuation.ThelastlocationintheEPZtoexhibittrafficcongestionisFuquay Varina;thisistheresultoftwomajorevacuationroutes,NC 55andUS 401comingtogetherinthecitycent erofFuquay VarinaasevacueesmaketheirwayoutoftheEPZ.AllcongestionwithintheEPZclearsby3hoursand30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 8. Separat eETEwerecomputedforschoolsandchildcarecenters,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpersonsandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Theaveragesingle waveETEforhomeboundspecialneedspersonsarecomparabletothegenerationpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile;averagesingle waveETEformedicalfacilitiesandschoolsandchildcarecentersarelessthanthe90 thpercentileforthegeneralpopulation;and,averagesingle waveETEfortransitdependentpersonsaregreaterthanthe90 thpercentileforthegeneralpopulation.SeeSection8. Table8 5indicatesthatthereareenoughbus,wheelchairtransport,passengercarandambulanceresourcesavailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave;however,therearenotenoughminivanstoevacuatemedicalfacilitiesinasinglewave.Therearesurplusbusesandpassengercarsavailabletosupplementtheshortageinminivanssuchthatallpeoplecanevac uateinasinglewave.SeeSections8.4and8.5. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileisinsensitivetoreductionsinthebasetripgenerationtimeof41/2hoursduetothetrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisrelativelyinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion(triplingtheshadowevacuationpercentageonly HarrisNuclearPlantES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1increases90 thpercentileETEby5minutes).100%shadowevacuationincreasestheETEby20minutesforthe90 thpercentile.SeeTableM 2. Anincreaseinpermanentresidentpopulation(EPZplusShadowRegion)of14%ormoreresultsinETEchangeswhichmeetthecriterionforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.SeeSectionM.3. Asevereicestormresultingina50%reductioninlinkcapacityandfreeflowspeedincreasesETEforthe2 Mileand5 MileRegionsbyatmost5minutes;however,increasesthe90 thpercentilefortheentireEPZbyupto1hourand25minutesandupto2hoursand35minutesatthe100 thpercentileETE.SeeSectionM 4 Projectingthestudyarea(EPZplusShadowRegion)permanentresidentpopulationtothepeakconstructionyearof2022forthenewplantsiteincreasesthe90 thpercentileETEby5minutesforthe2 mileregionand5 mileregionand25minutesforthefullEPZ.Addingthe3,271constructionworkervehiclesfurtherincreasesthe90 thpercentileETEby1hourand40minutesforthe2 mileregion,55minutesforthe5 mileregionand5minutesforthefullEPZ.SeeSectionM 5. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.HNPEPZSubZones HarrisNuclearPlantES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationSub Zone2000Population2007Population(Estimated) 12010PopulationA143180134B1,2341,3971,257C3314162,086D258319346E26,08232,87945,269F10,76413,53422,342G12,86415,49721,463H2,9063,4443,868I804947963J1,1451,3481,126K619763688L708874815M1,4401,7781,753N584721851TOTAL59,88274,097102,961EPZPopulationGrowth(2000 2010):71.9%EPZPopulationGrowth(2007 2010):39.0%1Rev.42007COLAETE2000Censusextrapolatedto2007basedonaverageannualcountygrowthratesfrom20052007 HarrisNuclearPlantES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR012 MileRadius2 MileRadiusxR025 MileRadius5 MileRadiusxxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRadiusxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR04NNW,N327°010°xxxR05NNE,NE011°056°xxR06ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR07SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR08SSW192°214°xxR09SW,WSW215°259°xxxR10260°281°xxR11W,WNW282°304°xxxR12NW305°326°xxEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR13N348°034°xxxxxxxxR14NNExxxxxxxxxR15NExxxxxxxxR16ENE035°079°xxxxxxxxxR17E,ESE080°101°xxxxxxxxR18102°124°xxxxxxxR19SE125°146°xxxxxxxxR20SSE147°191°xxxxxxxxxR21S,SSWxxxxxxxxR22192°236°xxxxxxxR23SW237°259°xxxxxxxxR24WSW,WxxxxxxxxxR25WNW260°326°xxxxxxxxxR26NW,NNW327°347°xxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR275 MileRadiusxxxxxxR28NNW,N327°010°xxxR29NNE,NE011°056°xxR30ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR31SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR32SSW192°214°xxR33SW,WSW215°259°xxxR34260°281°xxR35W,WNW282°304°xxxR36NW305°326°xxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSub Zone(s)Shelter in PlaceSub Zone(s)Evacuate HarrisNuclearPlantES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodFourthofJulyonJordanLake14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosuresonUS 1andUS 642Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R032:503:002:402:502:402:503:003:102:402:503:052:402:402:552 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR041:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R051:301:301:301:301:451:301:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R061:201:201:151:151:301:201:201:201:151:151:151:401:251:20R071:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R081:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R092:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R101:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:501:50R111:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R121:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:151:151:151:301:251:205 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR132:002:001:401:401:552:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:452:00R142:002:001:401:401:552:052:052:051:451:451:452:001:502:00R151:551:551:351:351:501:551:551:551:401:401:402:001:451:55R161:551:551:351:351:502:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:401:55R171:501:501:351:351:502:002:002:001:401:401:402:001:401:50R181:501:501:301:301:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R191:501:501:351:351:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R202:252:302:202:252:202:302:352:452:202:252:302:202:202:30R212:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R222:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R232:352:402:302:352:302:352:402:502:302:352:402:302:302:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR242:402:552:352:452:352:452:553:052:352:452:552:352:352:50R252:553:152:503:052:453:003:153:302:503:003:202:452:503:00R263:003:202:553:152:503:053:203:402:553:103:302:502:553:00StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R281:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R291:301:301:301:301:451:351:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R301:201:201:201:201:301:251:251:251:201:201:201:401:251:20R311:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R321:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R332:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R341:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:50R351:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R361:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:201:201:201:301:251:20 HarrisNuclearPlantES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend MidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend Weekend MidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:402 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R094:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R104:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R114:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R124:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:355 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR134:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R144:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R154:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R164:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R174:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R184:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R194:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R204:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R214:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R224:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R234:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend MidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend Weekend MidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR244:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R254:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R264:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R284:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R294:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R304:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R314:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R324:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R334:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R344:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R364:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35 | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR041:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R051:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R061:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R071:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R081:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R091:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R101:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R111:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R121:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R281:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R291:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R301:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R311:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R321:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R331:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R341:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R351:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R361:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR044:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R064:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R074:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R084:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R094:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R104:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R114:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R124:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R284:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R294:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R314:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R324:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R334:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R344:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R354:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R364:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30 HarrisNuclearPlantES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool90154.745.071:558.4122:10HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 190150.00.001:453.961:55LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 190150.00.001:458.8122:00WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool90153.041.251:5017.3242:15ApexElementarySchool90153.345.051:5014.7202:10ApexMiddleSchool90152.945.041:5017.1232:15ApexSeniorHighSchool90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25LufkinRoadMiddleSchool90151.245.021:5017.1232:15OliveChapelElementarySchool90153.38.0252:1017.4242:35St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool90154.940.581:5510.6152:10ThalesAcademy90152.936.351:5014.7202:10HollyGroveElementarySchool90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25HollyGroveMiddleSchool90158.230.7172:0524.9342:40HollyRidgeElementarySchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollyRidgeMiddleSchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollySpringsElementarySchool90153.77.7302:1524.7332:50HollySpringsHighSchool90158.730.7172:0513.5192:25NewSchool,Inc.Montessori90152.721.781:5513.4182:15Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool90150.93.9142:0028.4382:40Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool90153.335.361:5527.0372:35LincolnHeightsElementarySchool90151.73.6292:1528.4382:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids90151.545.031:5016.1222:15ApexBaptistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15ApexChildCarewithDebbie90153.036.351:5014.7202:10ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15EarthAngel'sDayCareHome90151.839.131:5016.1222:15EdithFranklinDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GoddardSchoolApex90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GraceChurchPreschool90151.545.031:5016.1222:15GrowingYearsLearningCenter90152.718.491:5514.7202:15HopeChapelPreschool90151.411.381:5515.9222:20Judy'sHomeCare90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25Karin' 4 Kidz90154.426.2112:0014.7202:20Lori'sFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10MoravicFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10PlayCare90153.219.2112:0015.9222:25Vickie'sDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15WoodhavenBaptistPre school90151.545.031:5016.1222:15HollySpringsLearningCenter90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25KiddieAcademyofHollySprings90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25LittleDreamersPreschool90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Sisters'ChildCareServices90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25StellaLowerySmallDayCare90151.521.651:5013.4182:10SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.721.781:5513.4182:15 HarrisNuclearPlantES 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25AMother'sLove90152.94.0442:3012.8182:50ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30LittleAngelsPreparatory90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00LittleMiracles90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00ReadyOrNotHereIGrow90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25ShiningStarChildCareHome90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00SouthWakePreschool&Academy90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05SpinningWheelsLearningCenter90151.439.031:5011.2152:05VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25MaximumforEPZ:2:45Maximum:3:05AverageforEPZ:2:05Average:2:25Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlantES 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool100204.741.072:108.4132:25HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:003.962:10LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:008.8132:15WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool100203.035.062:1017.3262:40ApexElementarySchool100203.341.052:0514.7222:30ApexMiddleSchool100202.941.052:0517.1262:35ApexSeniorHighSchool100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35LufkinRoadMiddleSchool100201.241.022:0517.1262:35OliveChapelElementarySchool100203.38.1252:2517.4262:55St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool100204.936.492:1010.6162:30ThalesAcademy100202.936.752:0514.7222:30HollyGroveElementarySchool100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40HollyGroveMiddleSchool100208.231.1162:2024.9373:00HollyRidgeElementarySchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollyRidgeMiddleSchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollySpringsElementarySchool100203.77.6302:3024.7373:10HollySpringsHighSchool100208.731.1172:2013.5202:40NewSchool,Inc.Montessori100202.727.072:1013.4202:30Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool100200.92.9182:2028.4423:05Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool100203.334.962:1027.0402:50LincolnHeightsElementarySchool100201.72.9362:4028.4423:25SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25 HarrisNuclearPlantES 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids100201.541.032:0516.1242:30ApexBaptistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40ApexChildCarewithDebbie100203.036.752:0514.7222:30ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40EarthAngel'sDayCareHome100201.835.442:0516.1242:30EdithFranklinDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GoddardSchoolApex100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GraceChurchPreschool100201.541.032:0516.1242:30GrowingYearsLearningCenter100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40HopeChapelPreschool100201.44.9182:2015.9242:45Judy'sHomeCare100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35Karin' 4 Kidz100204.440.472:1014.7222:35Lori'sFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30MoravicFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30PlayCare100203.29.9202:2015.9242:45Vickie'sDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40WoodhavenBaptistPre school100201.541.032:0516.1242:30HollySpringsLearningCenter100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation100204.530.792:1013.5202:30HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40KiddieAcademyofHollySprings100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45LittleDreamersPreschool100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Sisters'ChildCareServices100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45StellaLowerySmallDayCare100201.522.542:0513.4202:25SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.727.072:1013.4202:30 HarrisNuclearPlantES 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45AMother'sLove100202.94.4402:4012.8193:00ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50LittleAngelsPreparatory100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20LittleMiracles100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20ReadyOrNotHereIGrow100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45ShiningStarChildCareHome100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20SouthWakePreschool&Academy100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25SpinningWheelsLearningCenter100201.435.832:0511.2172:25VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45MaximumforEPZ:3:05Maximum:3:25AverageforEPZ:2:20Average:2:45Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantES 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool110254.736.082:258.4142:40HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:153.972:25LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:158.8152:30WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool110253.031.762:2517.3292:55ApexElementarySchool110253.336.062:2514.7252:50ApexMiddleSchool110252.936.052:2017.1292:50ApexSeniorHighSchool110250.85.492:2515.9272:55LufkinRoadMiddleSchool110251.236.022:2017.1292:50OliveChapelElementarySchool110253.38.1252:4017.4293:10St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool110254.935.892:2510.6182:45ThalesAcademy110252.932.662:2514.7252:50HollyGroveElementarySchool110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00HollyGroveMiddleSchool110258.225.7202:3524.9423:20HollyRidgeElementarySchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollyRidgeMiddleSchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollySpringsElementarySchool110253.77.1322:5024.7423:35HollySpringsHighSchool110258.727.8192:3513.5233:00NewSchool,Inc.Montessori110252.719.992:2513.4232:50Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool110250.92.9182:3528.4483:25Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool110253.328.572:2527.0463:15LincolnHeightsElementarySchool110251.72.2473:0528.4483:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids110251.536.032:2016.1272:50ApexBaptistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50ApexChildCarewithDebbie110253.032.562:2514.7252:50ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50EarthAngel'sDayCareHome110251.831.042:2016.1272:50EdithFranklinDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GoddardSchoolApex110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GraceChurchPreschool110251.536.032:2016.1272:50GrowingYearsLearningCenter110252.723.182:2514.7252:50HopeChapelPreschool110251.44.1212:4015.9273:10Judy'sHomeCare110250.85.492:2515.9272:55Karin' 4 Kidz110254.436.082:2514.7252:50Lori'sFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45MoravicFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45PlayCare110253.28.0252:4015.9273:10Vickie'sDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50WoodhavenBaptistPre school110251.536.032:2016.1272:50HollySpringsLearningCenter110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00KiddieAcademyofHollySprings110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00LittleDreamersPreschool110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Sisters'ChildCareServices110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00StellaLowerySmallDayCare110251.518.452:2013.4232:45SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.719.992:2513.4232:50 HarrisNuclearPlantES 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00AMother'sLove110252.94.0443:0012.8223:25ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10LittleAngelsPreparatory110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45LittleMiracles110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45ReadyOrNotHereIGrow110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05ShiningStarChildCareHome110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45SouthWakePreschool&Academy110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40SpinningWheelsLearningCenter110251.431.932:2011.2192:40VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05MaximumforEPZ:3:20Maximum:3:55AverageforEPZ:2:35Average:3:05Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlantES 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 312020.245.027303:0010.01351067305:054 613520.245.027303:1510.01351067305:206 915020.245.027303:3010.01351067305:35411 312014.710.584303:5512.81751056305:554 613014.711.378304:0012.81751056306:006 914014.712.570304:0012.81751056306:009 1215014.713.963304:0512.81751056306:05421 312013.045.017302:506.5951044304:304 613013.045.017303:006.5951044304:406 914013.045.017303:106.5951044304:509 1115013.045.017303:206.5951044305:00431 512017.219.254303:2514.72051066305:406 1012517.221.847303:2514.72051066305:4011 1513017.222.546303:3014.72051066305:4516 2013517.223.544303:3014.72051066305:4521 2514017.226.539303:3014.72051066305:4526 2914517.227.737303:3514.72051066305:5030 3315017.230.534303:3514.72051066305:50441 412020.519.862303:3513.41851073305:555 712520.520.560303:3513.41851073305:558 1013020.521.358303:4013.41851073306:0011 1313520.524.151303:4013.41851073306:0014 1614020.525.349303:4013.41851073306:0017 1914520.526.746303:4513.41851073306:0520 2215020.527.844303:4513.41851073306:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41208.35.787304:0013.71851043305:505 71308.36.182304:0513.71851043305:558 101358.36.379304:0513.71851043305:5511 131408.36.576304:1013.71851043306:0014 161458.36.873304:1013.71851043306:0017 191508.37.170304:1013.71851043306:0046112014.345.019302:5024.23251070305:20215014.345.019303:2024.23251070305:5047112017.335.929303:0018.82551071305:25213517.339.027303:1518.82551071305:40315017.338.927303:3018.82551071305:554811206.045.08302:4010.51451030304:104911209.945.013302:457.41051036304:2021509.945.013303:157.41051036304:50MaximumETE:4:10MaximumETE:6:05AverageETE:3:35AverageETE:5:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 313020.241.030403:2010.01551074405:454 614520.241.030403:3510.01551074406:006 916020.241.030403:5010.01551074406:15411 313014.79.593404:2512.81951062406:454 614014.710.287404:3012.81951062406:506 915014.711.080404:3512.81951062406:559 1216014.712.173404:3512.81951062406:55421 313013.041.019403:106.5951047405:054 614013.041.019403:206.5951047405:156 915013.041.019403:306.5951047405:259 1116013.041.019403:406.5951047405:35431 513017.219.553403:4514.72151071406:156 1013517.220.251403:5014.72151071406:2011 1514017.221.049403:5014.72151071406:2016 2014517.223.644403:5014.72151071406:2021 2515017.224.742403:5514.72151071406:2526 2915517.227.138403:5514.72151071406:2530 3316017.228.237404:0014.72151071406:30441 413020.518.666404:0013.42051080406:355 713520.519.364404:0013.42051080406:358 1014020.521.757404:0013.42051080406:3511 1314520.522.854404:0013.42051080406:3514 1615020.523.952404:0513.42051080406:4017 1915520.524.949404:0513.42051080406:4020 2216020.527.445404:0513.42051080406:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41308.34.8105404:3513.72051047406:405 71408.35.099404:4013.72051047406:458 101458.35.296404:4513.72051047406:5011 131508.35.493404:4513.72051047406:5014 161558.35.590404:5013.72051047406:5517 191608.35.787404:5013.72051047406:5546113014.341.021403:1524.23551077406:05216014.341.021403:4524.23551077406:3547113017.330.134403:2518.82751078406:05214517.335.030403:3518.82751078406:15316017.335.329403:5018.82751078406:304811306.041.09403:0010.51551033404:454911309.940.815403:057.41151040404:5521609.941.014403:357.41151040405:25MaximumETE:4:50MaximumETE:6:55AverageETE:4:00AverageETE:6:20 | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantES 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 314020.236.034503:4510.01751084506:354 615520.236.034504:0010.01751084506:506 917020.236.034504:1510.01751084507:05411 314014.78.6102504:5512.82151070507:354 615014.79.395504:5512.82151070507:356 916014.711.180504:5012.82151070507:309 1217014.712.173504:5512.82151070507:35421 314013.036.022503:356.51151054505:454 615013.036.022503:456.51151054505:556 916013.036.022503:556.51151054506:059 1117013.036.022504:056.51151054506:15431 514017.217.659504:1014.72451081507:006 1014517.218.257504:1514.72451081507:0511 1515017.219.154504:1514.72451081507:0516 2015517.221.249504:1514.72451081507:0521 2516017.222.047504:2014.72451081507:1026 2916517.223.943504:2014.72451081507:1030 3317017.224.642504:2514.72451081507:15441 414020.516.475504:3013.42251090507:305 714520.516.973504:3013.42251090507:308 1015020.518.866504:3013.42251090507:3011 1315520.519.463504:3013.42251090507:3014 1616020.520.261504:3513.42251090507:3517 1916520.520.959504:3513.42251090507:3520 2217020.522.954504:3513.42251090507:35 HarrisNuclearPlantES 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41408.33.9128505:2013.72351054507:455 71508.34.1122505:2513.72351054507:508 101558.34.2120505:2513.72351054507:5011 131608.34.3117505:3013.72351054507:5514 161658.34.4114505:3013.72351054507:5517 191708.35.689505:1013.72351054507:3546114014.336.024503:3524.24051088506:50217014.336.024504:0524.24051088507:2047114017.324.443503:5518.83151089507:00215517.331.034504:0018.83151089507:05317017.332.032504:1518.83151089507:204811406.034.211503:2510.51751037505:254911409.935.917503:307.41251045505:3521709.936.017504:007.41251045506:05MaximumETE:5:30MaximumETE:7:55AverageETE:4:25AverageETE:7:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 HarrisNuclearPlant1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheHarrisNuclearPlant(HNP),locatedinWakeCounty,NC.ETEprovidesDukeEnergyandstateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionDukeEnergyMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagencies.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.Attendedfinalmeeting.ChathamCountyEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtaincountyemergencyplans,specialfacilitydataandexistingtrafficmanagementplansthroughe mailandphonecalls.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.HarnettCountyEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtaincountyemergencyplans,specialfacilitydataandexistingtrafficmanagementplansthroughe mailandphonecalls.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumption.Attendedfinalmeeting.LeeCountyOfficeofEmergencyServices HarrisNuclearPlant1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionWakeCountyEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtaincountyemergencyplan,GISdata,specialfacilitydataandexistingtrafficmanagementplansthroughe mailandphonecalls.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.Attendedfinalmeeting.NorthCarolinaEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtainstateemergencyplans.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.Attendedfinalmeeting.OfficesofJordanLakeStateRecreationArea(SRA)ObtaintransientdataforJordanLakeNorthCarolinaDepartmentofTransportationandNorthCarolinaTurnpikeAuthorityObtainroadwayandinterchangeinformationforNC 540Toll.1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromDukeEnergy.b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromChathamCountyEmergencyManagement,HartnettCountyEmergencyManagement,LeeCountyOfficeofEmergencyServices,WakeCountyEmergencyManagementandNorthCarolinaEmergencyManagementtoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatrafficconditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)1andShadowRegion.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromthe2010census.e. ConductedarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.f. Conductedadatacollectionefforttoidentifyanddescribeschoolsandchildcarecenters,medicalfacilities,transientattractions,majoremployers,transportationresourcesavailable,andotherimportantinformation.2. Estimateddistributionsoftripgenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelephonesurvey.1AllreferencestoEmergencyPlanningZoneorEPZrefertotheplumeexposurepathwayEPZ. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.4. Reviewedtheexistingtrafficmanagementplantobeimplementedbylocalandstatepoliceintheeventofanincidentattheplant.Trafficcontrolisappliedatspecif iedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. UsedexistingSub Zonestodefineevacuationregions.TheEPZispartitionedinto14Sub Zonesalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguousSub ZonesforwhichETEarecalculate d.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsatspecialfacilitiesandfortransit dependentpersonsatho me.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystemwhichcomputesETE(SeeAppendicesBandC).a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,DukeEnerg yandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM 2)tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelink noderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.e. Specifiedselectedcand idatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationoftheHNP.8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltodetermineoptimalevacuat ionroutingandcomputeETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,childcarecenters,andmedicalfacilities),forthetransit dependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.2HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.2 TheHarrisNuclearPlantLocationTheHNPislocatedonLakeHarrisapproximately20milessouthwestofRaleigh,NorthCarolina.TheEPZconsistsofpartsofChatham,Harnett,LeeandWakeCounties.AmajorityofthenorthwesternportionoftheEPZismadeupofBEverettJordanLake.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingtheHNP.Thismapidentifiesthecommunitiesintheareaan dthemajorroads. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.HNPLocation HarrisNuclearPlant1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1,700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewa ysections,avalueof2,250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe HarrisNuclearPlant1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereob served,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpre timed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakentogatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateel ementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA). | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.HNPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork HarrisNuclearPlant1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DT A),modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbased,anddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuati onTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationoftheHNP.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthataredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthesecountermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththeprevious(2007)study.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: ChangeswhichcauseanincreaseinETE:o Significant(39%)increaseinpermanentresidentpopulationo Adecreaseintheaveragevehicleoccupancy(1 2%)whichresultsin12%moreevacuatingvehicleso Residentswithcommuterstake30minuteslongertomobilizeo Residentswithoutcommuterstake45minuteslongertomobilize ChangeswhichcauseadecreaseinETE:o Adecrease(13%)inemployeescommutingintotheEPZo Adecrease(23%)intransientswithintheEPZ.The2007studyconsideredthe4 thofJulypeaktransientlevelsatJordanLakeastheaveragetransientpopulation.ThisstudyusesaveragesummertransientpopulationatJordanLake.o Adecreaseinshadowandvoluntaryevacuationbyasmuchas30%.o Theproceduresoutlinedinthe2010HCMresultinslightlyhigherbaselineroadwaycapacitiesthantheproceduresintheHCM2000.o Increasedroadwayca pacity-thenewlyconstructedNC 540TollandJuddParkwayprovidesignificantcapacityimprovementsinthestudyareao Transientsandemployeesmobilize35minutesfaster.o Evacuationmodelimprovements-theDYNEVIIsystemusesDynamicTrafficAssignment(SeeAppendicesBan dC)whichadjustsroutingtoavoidtrafficcongestiontotheextentfeasible(similartoamodernGPS).Thesignificantincreaseinpermanentresidentpopulationcoupledwiththesignificantdecreaseinvehicleoccupancyresultsinmanymoreevacuatingvehiclesinthisstudythaninthepreviousstudy,whichwouldtypicallyleadtosignificant(greaterthan30minutes)increasesinETE.However,thevariousfactorsthatdecreaseETE,especiallytheadditionalroadwaycapacit yprovidedbyNC 540TollandJuddParkway,helptooffsetthesignificantincreaseinevacuatingvehicles.Theendresultisa15minuteincreaseinETEatthe90 thpercentileforwinterweekdaycasesanda25minuteincreaseforsummerweekendcases. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasisArcGISSoftwareusing2000USCensusblocks;blockcentroidmethodused;populationextrapolatedto2007.Population=74,097ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused.Population=102,961ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancy3.05persons/household,1.33evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:2.29persons/vehicle.2.82persons/household,1.39evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:2.02persons/vehicle.EmployeePopulationEmployeestreatedasseparatepopulationgroup.EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZ,supplementedbyobservationsofcommercialpropertyinEPZfromaerialimagery.1.08employees/vehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults.Employees=3,984EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZ.1.07employeespervehiclebasedontelephon esurveyresults.Employees=3,467TransitDependentPopulationDefinedashouseholdswith0vehicles.Telephonesurveyresultsusedtoestimatetransitdependentpopulation.Atotalof345peoplerequiring12busestoevacuate.Anadditional99homeboundspecialneedspersonsneedspecialtransportationtoevacuate(76requireabus,17requireawheelchair accessiblevehicle,and6requireanambulance).EstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Includeshouseholdswith0vehiclesandhouseholdswith1or2vehicleswhichareusedbyacommuterwhowouldnotreturnhome.Atotalof3,419peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring114busestoevacuate.Anadditional103homeboundspecialneedspersonsneedspecialtransportationtoevacuate(75requireabus,19requireawheelchair accessiblevehicle,and9requireanambulance).TransientPopulationTransientestimatesbasedoninformationfromcountyandinternetsearcheswereusedtoobtainmoredetailedinformation.Transients=14,831TransientestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Transients=11,442 HarrisNuclearPlant1 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyMedicalFacilityPopulationMedicalfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.MedicalFacilityPopulation=686Vehiclesoriginatingatspecialfacilities=78SpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.MedicalFacilityPopulation=896Vehiclesoriginatingatspecialfacilities=143SchoolPopulationSchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=16,850Busesrequired=309SchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.ChildCareCentersincludedintheseestimates.Schoolenrollment=23,530Busesrequired=445VoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuated50%ofpopulationwithinthecircularportionoftheregion;35%,inannularringbetweenthecircleandtheEPZboundary.20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)ShadowEvacuation30%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheshadowregion.20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFigure7 2)NetworkSize1,720Links;1,234Nodes.2,311links;1,613nodesRoadwayGeometricDataFieldsurveysconductedin2006.Majorintersectionswerevideoarchived.GISshape filesofsignallocationsandroadwaycharacteristicscreatedduringroadsurvey.RoadcapacitiesbasedonHCM2000.FieldsurveysconductedinMarch2012.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedRelocationSchool.DirectevacuationtodesignatedRelocationSchool.Ridesharing50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighboroffriend.50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant1 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTripGenerationforEvacuationBasedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersleavebetween30and240minutes.Householdswithoutcommutersleavebetween15and180minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and150minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Basedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and270minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and225minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and105minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherNormal,Rain,orIce.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forice.Normal,Rain,orIce.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forice.ModelingI DYNEVSystem:TRADandPC DYNEV.DYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.10.0SpecialEventsNewPlantConstruction.SpecialEventPopulation:3,500additionalemployeesFourthofJulyonJordanLakeSpecialEventPopulation=7,112additionaltransientsEvacuationCases25Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and12Scenariosproducing300uniquecases36Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and14Scenariosproducing504uniquecases.EvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedfor50 th ,90 th ,95 th ,and100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90 thand100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZ,90 thpercentileWinterWeekdayMiddayGoodWeather=2:35SummerWeekendMiddayGoodWeather=2:15WinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather=2:50SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather=2:40 HarrisNuclearPlant2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.NUREG/CR 7002wasusedasthebasisformostoftheassumptionsprovidedinthissection.KLDhasbeendoingETEstudiesforU.S.nuclearpowerplantsforover30years,including16newplantapplicationsduringthelast5years.Duringthattime,KLDhasworkedwithmorethan100stateandcountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThenewplantapplicationETEstudieswerereviewedextensivelybytheU.S.NuclearRegulatoryCommission(NRC)andrefinedthroughtheRequestforAdditionalInformation(RAI)process.KLDdevelopedalistofkeyprojectass umptionsbasedonNUREG/CR 7002,onyearsofETEexperienceandinteractionwithoffsiteagencies,andonfeedbackfromtheNRCthroughRAIs.Thelistwasdiscussedwithstakeholdersattheprojectkickoffmeeting.Thelistwasthenrefinedbasedoninputsfromstakeholdersanddocumentedinatechnicalme mo.ThememowasapprovedbyallstakeholderspriortocomputingETE.2.1 DataEstimates1. PermanentresidentpopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebasedupondataprovidedbycountyemergencymanagementdepartments.3. Populationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromcountyemergencymanagementdepartments.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCapacityManual2010.5. Populationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanal ysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. TherelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromtheU.S.Censusandthetelephonesurvey(SeeAppendixF).Averagevaluesof2.82peopleperhouseholdand1.39evacuatingvehiclespe rhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandemployeesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.07employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. Campgrounds,parks,communitycenters,golfcoursesandlodgingfacilities:Vehicleoccupancyvariesbasedupondataprovidedforlocaltransientfacilities.SeeAppendixE.c. SpecialEv ent:VehicleoccupancyfortransientsattendingFourthofJulyonJordanLakewasderivedfromdataprovidedbytheofficesoftheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaforeachJordanLakefacility.Vehicleoccupancyvariesbyfacilityandtheoverallaverageis3.5peoplepervehicle.11DatafromRevision4ofthe2007COLAETEstudywasappliedtooneoftheJordanLakeFacilities(Poe'sRidge) | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofSub ZonesthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.3. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyoftheSubZonesincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.4. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.Twentypercent(20%)ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.Twentypercent(20%)ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).5. Atotalof14"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherconditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareou tlinedinTable2 1.6. Scenario14considerstheclosureofonelanenorthboundonUS 1fromjusteastoftheinterchangewithNewHillHollemanRd(Exit89)totheinterchangewithI 40(Exit1A)andonelaneeastboundonUS 64fromNewHillOliveChapelRd/NC 751totheinterchang ewithI 40(Exit1A). | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDay WeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodFourthofJulyonJordanLake14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosuresonUS 1andUS 64 | |||
2Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology HarrisNuclearPlant2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplementedthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofSubZonesformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 68percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1commuter;41percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore28percent(68%x41%=28%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacua tiontrip.Itisassumedthattheresponsestothetelephonesurveyregardingthereturnofcommuterspriortoevacuatingareapplicableforthisstudy.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderat ionof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.5. SecurityRoadBlocks(SRB)willbestaffedwithinapproximately30minutesfollowingthesirennotifications(basedupondataprovidedbyemergencymanagementagencies),todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofSRBlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis30minutetimeperiod.6. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningatth eAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytrav elerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.7. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 3).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.TheDYNEVIISystemisusedtocomputeETEinthisstudy.InformationprovidedbylocallawenforcementandcountyemergencymanagementdepartmentsindicatedthatPriority1TCPcouldbemannedwithin30minutesandallotherTCPcouldbemannedwithin120minutes.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.9. Buses,vans,ambulances,andminivanswillbeus edtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedrelocationschools.b. Studentsatprivateschoolsandchildcarecenterswillevacuatedirectlytothedesignatedrelocationschools.c. Buses,wheelchairvansandambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoreceptioncenters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolsandchildcarecentersareinsession,aregivenpriorityinassigningtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredround trips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.10. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthege neralpopulationtoreceptioncentersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillride sharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 4 ,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.3Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.4InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswith HarrisNuclearPlant2 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.111. Twotypesofadverseweatherscenariosareconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios;iceoccursinwinterscenariosonly.Itisassumedthattherainoricebeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepresentintheEPZisassumed.Itisassumedthatroadsarepassableandthattheappropriateagenci esareclearingtheroadsastheywouldnormallywhenicyconditionsarepresent.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 5;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.12. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport70studentsperbusforelementaryschoolsand50studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedondiscussionswithcountyofficesofemergencymanagement.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30peopleperbus.ItisassumedthatdriversforvehiclesidentifiedinTable8 5ar eavailable.13. Schoolbuseswillbeloadedin15minutes.Busesformedicalfacilitiesandseniorfacilitieswillrequire2minutesofloadingtimeperpassengerandwheelchairtransportvehicleswillrequire7minutesofloadingtimeperpassenger.Ambulanceswillrequire15minutesofloadingtimeperpassenger.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationMobilizationTimeforTransitVehiclesRain90%90%NoEffect10minuteincreaseIce80%80%NoEffect20minuteincreaseIce(Sensitivity) 650%50%NoEffectN/ATransitdependentETEnotconsideredforthissensitivitystudy*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.otherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).5Agarwal,M.et.al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.6Asensitivitystudywasconsideredforamajoricestormwitha50%reductionincapacityandfreeflowspeed.SeeAppendixM. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsoftheHNPEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythreedistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZonadailybasis.EstimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachSub Zoneandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationdistribution).TheHNPEP Zissubdividedinto14Sub Zones.TheEPZisshowninFigure3 1. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.82persons/householdwasestimatedusingU.S.Censusdata-seeSectionF.3.1).Thenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.39vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 8)wasadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.TheestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbytheSub ZoneandEPZboundariesusingGISsoftware.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatethepopulationwithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacr ossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZbySub Zonebasedonthismethodology.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaveragehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable3 2.Figure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromHNP.ThispopulationdistributionwasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbeargue dthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductioncanbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforaperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasis,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.HNPEPZ HarrisNuclearPlant3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationSub Zone2000Population2007Population(Estimated) 12010PopulationA143180134B1,2341,3971,257C3314162,086D258319346E26,08232,87945,269F10,76413,53422,342G12,86415,49721,463H2,9063,4443,868I804947963J1,1451,3481,126K619763688L708874815M1,4401,7781,753N584721851TOTAL59,88274,097102,961EPZPopulationGrowth(2000 2010):71.9%EPZPopulationGrowth(2007 2010):39.0%Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySubZoneSub Zone2010Population2010ResidentVehiclesA13464B1,257618C2,0861,026D346168E45,26922,279F22,34210,993G21,46310,556H3,8681,902I963473J1,126552K688336L815399M1,753858N851415TOTAL102,96150,6391Rev.42007COLAETE2000Censusextrapolatedto2007basedonaverageannualcountygrowthratesfrom2005 2007 HarrisNuclearPlant3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromtheHNP(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuationvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthosefortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesN6,3743,138NNE49,71524,478NE57,32128,239ENE22,33810,995E16,9958,365ESE11,4145,611SE6,0362,966SSE1,965969S1,777874SSW3,5061,723SW2,9151,428WSW2,9181,434W1,236605WNW4,9822,438NW2,9111,429NNW5,6872,798TOTAL198,09097,490 | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.TheHNPEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiesth atattracttransients,including: Campgrounds Parks CommunityCenters GolfCourses LodgingFacilitiesJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaistheprimarytransientattractionwithintheEPZ.JordanLakeisa46,768acrelakelocatedinthenorthwesternportionoftheEPZ,occupyingpartsofSub ZonesL,M,andN.TheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaconsistsof12separatefacilities(11ofwhichareintheEPZwithCrosswindsCampgroundandMarinaaccountingfor2facilities)thatoffercamping,fishing,swimming,andboating.ThereareeightcampgroundswithintheEPZ.DataprovidedbyChathamCountyandtheofficesoftheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaincludedthenumberofcampsites,peakoccupancyandthenumberofvehiclesandpeoplepercampsiteforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfortransientsateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof4,060transi entsand1,338vehicleshavebeenassignedtocampgroundswithintheEPZ.Themajority,3,775transientsand1,161vehiclesareattributedtothefivedifferentJordanLakecampgroundfacilities(NewHopeOverlook,PoplarPoint,VistaPoint,CrosswindsCampgroundandMarina,andParker'sCreek).TherearenumerousparksandcommunitycenterswithintheEPZ.FiveofthefacilitiesareJordanLakeStateRecreationAreas(EbenezerChurch,Poe'sRidge,RobesonCreek,SeaforthandWhiteOak).DataprovidedbyChatham,HarnettandWakeCountiesandtheofficesoftheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaincludedthenumberoftransientsandvehiclesvisitingeachfacilityonapeakday.Atotalof6,296transientsand2,234vehicleshavebeenassignedtoparksandcommunitycenterswithintheEPZ.3,337transientsand873vehiclesareattributedtothefivedifferentJordanLakeparkfacilities.TherearethreegolfcourseswithintheEPZ.DataprovidedbyWakeCountyincludedthenumberofgolfersandvehiclesateachfacilityonapeakday,andthenumberofgolfersthattravelsfromoutsidethearea.Atotalof620transientsand410vehiclesareassignedtogolfcourseswithintheEPZ.ThereareninelodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.DataprovidedbyWakeCountyincludedth enumberofrooms,percentageofoccupiedroomsatpeaktimes,andthenumberofpeopleandvehiclesperroomforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof466transientsin402vehiclesareassignedtolodgingfacilitiesintheEPZ. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE 5presentsthenumberoftransientsvisitingcampgrounds,TableE 6presentsthenumberoftransientsatparksandcommunitycenters,TableE 7presentsthenumberoftransientsatgolfcoursesandTableE 8presentsthenumberoftransientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table3 4presentstran sientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbySub Zone.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddistancefromtheplant. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesSub ZoneTransientsTransientVehiclesA401182B289131C7030D224102E1,230771F703428G824375H8052I00J00K440210L2,767909M2,306667N2,108527TOTAL11,4424,384 HarrisNuclearPlant3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.4 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.DataprovidedbyChathamandWakeCountieswereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZforthoseemployerswhodidnotprovidedata.AccordingtoNUREG/CR 7002,employeesareconsideredtransients.Forthisstud y,transientsandemployeescommutingfromoutsideoftheEPZareconsideredseparately.Employeesandtransientshavedifferentscenariopercentages(seeTable6 3).Forexample,employeespeakduringthewinter,weekday,middayscenarioswhiletransientspeakduringsummerweekends.Forthisreason,employeesweretreatedseparatelyfromtransients.InTableE 4,theE mployees(MaxShift)aremultipliedbythepercentNon EPZfactortodeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.07employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(SeeFigureF 7)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajoremployers.Table3 5presentsnon EPZResidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbySub Zone.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesSub ZoneEmployeesEmployeeVehiclesA519485B00C00D00E1,2281,150F789739G582545H00I00J5753K247230L4542M00N00TOTAL3,4673,244 HarrisNuclearPlant3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 MedicalFacilitiesDatawereprovidedbythecountiesforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.TableE 3inAppendixEsummarizesthedatagathered.Section8detailstheevacuationofmedicalfacilitiesandtheirpatients.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesthatneedtobeprovideddependonthepatients'stateofhealth.Itisestimatedthatbusescantransportupto30people;wheelchairvans,upto4people;wheelchairbusesupto15people;minivansupto5people;passengercarsupto4peopleandambulances,upto2people.3.6 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(externalexternaltrips)atthetimeofanemergencyevent.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.Thesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingthestudyarea-US 1,US 64,US 401,US 421andI 40).Emergencymanagementagenciesindicatedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoenterthestudyduringthefirst30minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.Th eAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby1/2hour(SecurityRoadBlocks-SRB-areassumedtobeactivatedat30minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuatebasedupondataprovidedbyemergencymanagementagencies)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,thereare6,963vehiclesenteringthestudyareaasexternal externaltripspriortotheactivationoftheSRBandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and12)asdiscussedinSection6.3.7 SpecialEventDuringtheprojectkickoffmeeting,theoffsiteagenciesdiscussedtwospecialeventsinthestudyarea.EventsattheKokaBoothAmphitheatre(locatedinCaryjustoutsidetheEPZ)canattractatmost31,000people,15%ofwhomaretransientsforatotalof4,650transients(dataprovidedbyWakeCounty).DataprovidedbytheOfficesofJordanLakeSRAindicatedthat75%ofindividualsvisitingJordanLakefacilitiesaretransients,resultinginpermanentresidentswithintheEPZmakinguptheremaining25%.ThefireworksdisplayduringFourthofJulyonJordanLakeattracts14,224people,factoringoutthepermanentresidents.Basedonfederalguidance,Four thofJulywaschosenasthespecialevent(Scenario13)becauseithasthelargest HarrisNuclearPlant3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1transientpopulation.Peopleattendingthefireworksshowaredispersedbetweenthe11differentJordanLakefacilitieswithintheEPZ.DatawereobtainedfromtheofficesoftheJordanLakeSRA.Accordingtothedataprovided,the14,224peopleattendingthefireworkstravelin4,067vehicles.Fiftypercent(50%)ofthesetransientsarealreadypresentonJordanLakeduringanaveragesummerweekend.Thus,thereareanadditional7,112transientstravelinginapproximately2,033vehiclesforthespecialevent.TheseadditionalvehicleswereloadedontoappropriateroadwaysintheanalysisnetworkateachofthedifferentJordanLakefacilities.Thespecialeventvehicletripswer egeneratedutilizingthesamemobilizationdistributionsfortransients.Publictransportationisnotprovidedforthiseventandwasnotconsideredinthespecialeventanalysis. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.HNPEPZExternalTrafficUpstreamNodeDownstreamNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2DFactor 2HourlyVolumeExternalTraffic8590590US 1NB17,0000.1160.254932478375375US 1SB17,0000.1160.59864938137137US 64EB17,0000.1160.254932478375375US 64WB17,0000.1160.59864938222222US 401NB11,0000.1160.56383198224224US 401SB11,0000.1160.563831981031103US 421EB5,7000.1180.53361688666666US 421WB5,7000.1180.5336168802020I 40EB110,0000.0820.54,5102,2558359359I 40WB110,0000.0820.54,5102,255TOTAL 6,9631 HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20122 HCM2010 HarrisNuclearPlant3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.8 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandisprovidedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.ThissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissectionandSection8.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof185,323peopleand86,017vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant3 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandSubZoneResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalA1344401519440001,102B1,25742289000001,588C2,0866970030002,228D3461122400000581E45,2691,5041,2301,2282618,8890058,376F22,342743703789447,9360032,552G21,4637138245824075,0020028,991H3,86812880000004,076I96332000000995J1,126370571370001,357K6882344024700001,398L815272,7674500003,654M1,753582,30600285004,402N851282,108000002,987Shadow000001,418 239,618041,036Total102,9613,41911,4423,46789623,53039,6180185,323NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.NOTE:SpecialFacilitiesonlyincludesmedicalfacilities. | |||
2TherearetwoschoolsintheShadowthatevacuate-DeepRiverElementarySchoolinLeeCountyandLafayetteElementarySchoolinHarnettCounty.CountyemergencyplanscallforthesefacilitiestobeevacuatedbecauseoftheircloseproximitytotheEPZboundary. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant3 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandSubZoneResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalA6421824857000740B618213100000751C1,026430010001,061D168210200000272E22,2791007711,150563420024,696F10,99348428739132960012,515G10,55648375545701980011,792H1,902852000001,962I4732000000475J552205328000635K33622102300000778L39929094200001,352M85846670010001,539N415252700000944Shadow000004419,4986,96326,505Total50,6392284,3843,24417589019,4986,96386,017NOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,snow,fog,windspeed,ice)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515) | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentand20percentforrainandice,respectively.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacit ymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeinters ectionswhereflowcanbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsortur nbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobecomethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theex istingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedinthecountyemergencyplansareextensiveandwereupdatedbaseduponconstructionofNC 540TollandthecompletionofJuddPkwyinFuquay Varina.SeeAppendixGformoreinformation.Theper lan ecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where: | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutesmovement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecutingmovement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycl e;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 HarrisNuclearPlant4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexityofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity HarrisNuclearPlant4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtotheHNPStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade) FreewaysEachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15TwolaneroadscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"Clas sI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A HarrisNuclearPlant4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 FreewaysRef:HCMChapters10,11,12,13Chapter10oftheHCM2010describesaprocedureforintegratingtheresultsobtainedinChapters11,12and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewa ycomponents.Chapter10alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomaticallyperformsthisintegrationprocess.Chapter11oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSfor"BasicFreewaySegments".Exhibit11 17oftheHCM2010presentscapacit yvs.freespeedestimates,whichareprovidedbelow.FreeSpeed(mph):55606570+Per LaneCapacity(pc/h):2250230023502400Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,free speedsandcapacitybasedonfieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtime varyingspeedsbasedondemand:capacityrelationships.Aconservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof2250pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyforfreeways,asshowninAppendixK.Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapa city,speed,densityandLOSforfreewayweavingsections.Thesimulationmodelcontainslogicthatrelatesspeedtodemandvolume:capacityratio.ThevalueofcapacityobtainedfromthecomputationalproceduresdetailedinChapter12dependsonthe"Type"andgeometricsoftheweavingsegmentan donthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).Chapter13oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacitiesoframpsandof"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofarampfreewayjunction:Thecapacityofthefreewayimmediatelydownstreamofanon ramporimmediatelyupstreamofanoff ramp;thecapacityoftheramproadway;andthemaximumflowrateenteringtherampinfluencearea.Inmostcases,thefreewaycapacityisthecontrollingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit13 8oftheHCM2010,anddependonthenumberoffreewaylanesandonthefreewayfreespeed.RampcapacityispresentedinExhibit13 10andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficinaccordwiththeproceduresinCh apter13oftheHCM2010.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemandrelativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly). | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3.4 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Whereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersect ionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuat edsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contra flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChap ter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"ThesystemunderstudyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.Itisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicat ethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantof HarrisNuclearPlant4 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant4 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams HarrisNuclearPlant5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREG/CR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundAsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplementedwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterthesirennotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthi scase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhentheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenal ert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthantheestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarelikelytobehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertandnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaof330squaremilesandisengagedina HarrisNuclearPlant5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1widevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromoneindividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevac uationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertravelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivin gnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbyteleph one,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.TheremainingdiscussionwillfocusontheapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbeforebeginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowthesecondsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweekendsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).Transientswillalwaysfollowon eofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicatedway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprecedingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthi sstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccurstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work. | |||
2 Applies throughout the year for transients. | |||
#ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time HarrisNuclearPlant5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Inaccordancewiththe2012FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessProgramManual,100%ofthepopulationisnotifiedwithin45minutes.Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)thatabout87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified0 0.0%5 7.1%10 13.3%15 26.5%20 46.9%25 66.3%30 86.7%35 91.8%40 96.9%45 100.0% | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.Thisdistributionisalsoapplicableforresidentstoleavestores,restaurants,parksandotherlocationswithintheEPZ.Thisdi stributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00.0%4090.0%542.9%4592.2%1063.7%5092.6%1575.4%5592.6%2079.8%6098.8%2580.6%7599.2%3088.6%90100.0%3589.2%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00.0%4087.3%59.0%4594.0%1022.4%5094.8%1534.6%5594.8%2050.8%6098.7%2557.4%7599.8%3078.5%90100.0%3580.9%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate00.0%1515.8%3056.4%4565.3%6079.8%7587.2%9088.7%10589.2%12093.7%13597.6%15098.0%16598.0%18098.7%195100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response HarrisNuclearPlant5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%10%20%30%40% | |||
50% | |||
60%70%80% | |||
90%100%0153045607590105120135150165180195 | |||
%ofHouseholdsCompletingActivityElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHome HarrisNuclearPlant5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table5 6presentsthesummingpr oceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 6.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5Table5 7presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5). | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor500responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnonparametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciplesareused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 6,Table57);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles; HarrisNuclearPlant5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterthan3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.5) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3. | |||
0.0%10.0%20.0% | |||
30.0% | |||
40.0%50.0%60.0% | |||
70.0% | |||
80.0% | |||
90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.5 37.542.547.5 52.557.567.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution HarrisNuclearPlant5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bothveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,nota"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturningineach).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,usingweightingbasedupontheprobabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,CandD.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter,andsoforth.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,CandD,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother ,aretabulatedinTable5 8(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(15)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Sub Zonescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. Sub Zonescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethe2mileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinSub Zonesbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoptionsavailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimefortheSubZonescomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*,isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltrip saregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance). | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenonsheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios,however,thatwasnotthecaseforthissite.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*is1:00forallscenarios.d. Note:Sinceapproximately90%ofthe2mileregion(Sub ZoneA)iscomprisedofemployeesandtransients,theTScen*valueof1:00isdictatedbythetripgenerationofthesepopulationgroupsasopposedtothetripgenerationofresidents.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersFigure5 5presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommutersandemployees/transients;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeisapproximately1hourforallscenarios.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,20%ofthepopulation(whonormallywouldhavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesforanun stagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationtime,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 9providesthetripgenerationhistogramsforstagedevacuation.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreasAppendix2toAnnexGoftheNorthCarolinaRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlan(January2012)establishesthebasicproceduresandorganizationalresponsibilitiesfortheemergencyalertandnotificationonHarrisandJordanLakes,theHaw,DeepandCapeFearRiversinadditiontoassociatedrecreationalsites,surroundingareasandotherfacilitieswithinthe10 mileEPZ.IndividualsonJordanLake,UpperCapeFear,DeepandHawRiverswillbenotifiedbytheChatha mCountyEmergencyManagementOffice,assistedbytheMoncureFireDepartment,NCWildlifeResourcesCommission,NCDepartmentofEnvironmentandNaturalResources(DENR),UnitedStatesArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE)fromB.EverettJordanLakeandDamfieldofficeandtheCommunicationsandLogisticsSectionandSpecial HarrisNuclearPlant5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Operations/AviationUnitoftheNCHighwayPatrol.IndividualsonHarrisLakewillbenotifiedbytheWakeCountyEmergencyManagement,assistedbytheWakeCountySheriff'sDepartment,CommunicationsandLogisticsSectionandSpecialOperations/AviationUnitoftheNCHighwayPatrol,ChathamCountyEmergencyManagementOfficeandNCWildlifeResourcesCommission.IndividualsontheLowerCapeFearRiverwillbenotifiedbyHarnettCountyEmergencyManagement,assistedbytheCommunicationsandLogisticsSectionandSpecialOperations/AviationUnitoftheNCHighwayPatrol.AsindicatedinTable5 2,thisstudyassumes100%notificationin45minuteswhichisconsistentwiththeFEMAREPManual.Table5 8indicatesthatalltransientswillhavemobilizedwithin1hour45minutes.Itisassumedthatthistimeframeissufficienttimeforboaters,campersan dothertransientstoreturntotheirvehiclesorlodgingfacilitiesandbegintheirevacuationtrip. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUn stagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1157%7%0%1%21535%35%0%9%31534%34%2%24%41513%13%8%24%5155%5%15%14%6154%4%18%10%7152%2%15%5%8150%0%13%2%9150%0%8%3%10300%0%10%5%11300%0%6%1%12300%0%3%2%13150%0%1%0%14300%0%1%0%156000%0%0%0%NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionCforgoodweather. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270 | |||
%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuatingAdvisory(min)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommuters HarrisNuclearPlant5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1150%0%2150%2%3150%5%4152%5%51523%60%61518%10%71515%5%81513%2%9158%3%103010%5%11306%1%12303%2%13151%0%14301%0%156000%0%*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 8)isthesameforUn stagedandStagedEvacuation. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant5 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUn stagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270 | |||
%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuatingAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommutersStagedResidentswithnoCommuters HarrisNuclearPlant6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingSub Zonesthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergenc y.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Adescriptionofeachscenarioisprovidedbelow:1. SummerMidweekMidday(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweatherdaytimeperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallydispersedwithintheEPZperformingdailyactivitiesandmajorworkplacesareattypicaldaytimelevels.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;summerschoolisinsession;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerdaytimelevels.2. SummerMidweekMidday(adverse):ThisscenariorepresentsanadverseweatherdaytimeperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallydispersedwithintheEPZperformingdailyactivitiesandmajorworkplacesareattypicaldaytimelevels.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;summerschoolsareinsession;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerdaytimelevels.3. SummerWeekendMidday(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweatherweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZperformingtypicalsummerweekendactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathomeorwiththeirfamilies;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweek endlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerweekendlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerweekendlevels.4. SummerWeekendMidday(adverse):Thisscenariorepresentsanadverse(rain)weatherweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZperformingtypicalsummerweekendactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathomeorwiththeirfamilies;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataverage HarrisNuclearPlant6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1summerweekendlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerweekendlevels.5. SummerMidweekandWeekendEvening(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweathermidweekandweekendeveningperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallyathomewithfewerdispersedwithintheEPZperformingeveningactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicaleveninglevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummereveninglevels.Externaltrafficisreduced.6. WinterMidweekMidday(normal):Thisscenariorepresent satypicalnormalweatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandtheworkforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesar efullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.7. WinterMidweekMidday(adverse):Thisscenariorepresentsanadverse(rain)weatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandthewor kforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesarefullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.8. WinterMidweekMidday(adverse):Thisscenariorepresentsanadverse(ice)weatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandtheworkforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesar efullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.9. WinterWeekendMidday(normal):ThisscenarioreflectsatypicalnormalweatherwinterweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZ,andtheworkforceisataweekendlevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweek endlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterweekendlevelsandrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterweekendlevels.10. WinterWeekendMidday(adverse):Thisscenarioreflectsanadverse(rain)weatherwinterweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZ,andtheworkforceisataweek endlevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence; HarrisNuclearPlant6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterweekendlevelsandrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterweekendlevels.11. WinterWeekendMidday(adverse):Thisscenarioreflectsanadverse(ice)weatherwinterweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebot hathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZ,andtheworkforceisataweekendlevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterweekendlevelsandrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterweekendlevels.12. WinterMidweekandWeekendEvening(normal):Thisscenarioreflectsatypicalnormalmidweekandweekendeveningperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarehomeandtheworkforceisatanighttimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalnighttimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwintereveninglevels.13. SpecialEvent,SummerWeekendEvening(normal):ThisscenarioreflectsaspecialeventactivitywherepeaktouristpopulationsarepresentwithintheEPZ.AssumptionsmadeareindicatedinSection3.7.ThepopulationattendingtheeventisdevelopedconsideringbothtransientsandpermanentEPZresidentswhoareinattendancetoavoiddouble countingresidents.Theremainingpermanentresidentpercentage,thosenotattendingtheevent,willbeassumedtoevacuatefromtheirresidence.Workplaceswillbestaffedattypicallevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedatpeakspecialeventlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatappropriatelevelsbasedontheeventandtimeofyear.14. RoadwayImpact,SummerMidweekMidday(normal):Theintentofthisscenarioistorepresentavarietyofconditionsthatmayimpactaroadwaysegmentsuchasconstruction,flooding,vehicleaccidents,etc.Theroadwayimpactscenarioassumedthatduringasummermidweeknormalweatherdaytimescenario,onelaneonUS 1andonelaneonUS 64wasclosedthroughoutth eEPZ.Atotalof36RegionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupingsofSubZonesconsidered.TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable6 1.TheSub ZoneconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesector basedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thecentralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesfromtheplant(RegionsR04throughR12)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR13throughR26).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,respectively.RegionsR27throughR36areidenticaltoRegionsR02andR04throughR12,respectively;however,thoseSub Zonesbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2 milere gion(RegionR01)hasevacuated. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Atotalof14ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thus,thereareatotalof36x14=504evacuationcases.Table6 2providesisadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.ThepopulationdataprovidedinSection3andAppendixEarepeakpopulationvalu es.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeachscenario.Table6 4presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThepopulationandvehicleestimatespresentedinSection3andAppendixEarepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentages,suchthattheaveragepopulationisconsideredforeachevacuationcase.ThescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 3,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.Th epercentagespresentedinTable6 3weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof68%(thenumberofhouseholdswithatleastonecommuter)and41%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommutertha twouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.Employmen tisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedontheestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedthatonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeakduringsummerweeken dsandless(65%)duringtheweek.AsshowninAppendixE,therearemanycampgroundsandlodgingfacilitiesofferingovernightaccommodationsintheEPZ,offsetbyothertransientfacilitiesinwhicheveninguseisminimal(parksandcommunitycenters);thus,eveningtransientactivityisestimatedtobe50%forsummerand20%fo rwinter.Transientactivityonwinterweekendsisestimatedtobe40%andless(25%)duringtheweek.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 3,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheshadowregionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshadowregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 4forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows: | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Onespecialevent-FourthofJulyonJordanLake-wasconsideredasScenario13.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario13,and0%forallotherscenarios.Basedondataprovidedbycountyemergencymanagementdepartments,summerschoolenrollmentisapproximately28%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearformidweek ,middayscenarios.Schoolisnotinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbusesforthetransit dependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentpopulationispresentintheEPZatalltimes.Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR012 MileRadius2 MileRadiusxR025 MileRadius5 MileRadiusxxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRadiusxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR04NNW,N327°010°xxxR05NNE,NE011°056°xxR06ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR07SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR08SSW192°214°xxR09SW,WSW215°259°xxxR10260°281°xxR11W,WNW282°304°xxxR12NW305°326°xxEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR13N348°034°xxxxxxxxR14NNExxxxxxxxxR15NExxxxxxxxR16ENE035°079°xxxxxxxxxR17E,ESE080°101°xxxxxxxxR18102°124°xxxxxxxR19SE125°146°xxxxxxxxR20SSE147°191°xxxxxxxxxR21S,SSWxxxxxxxxR22192°236°xxxxxxxR23SW237°259°xxxxxxxxR24WSW,WxxxxxxxxxR25WNW260°326°xxxxxxxxxR26NW,NNW327°347°xxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR275 MileRadiusxxxxxxR28NNW,N327°010°xxxR29NNE,NE011°056°xxR30ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR31SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR32SSW192°214°xxR33SW,WSW215°259°xxxR34260°281°xxR35W,WNW282°304°xxxR36NW305°326°xxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSub Zone(s)Shelter in PlaceSub Zone(s)Evacuate HarrisNuclearPlant6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.HNPEPZSubZones HarrisNuclearPlant6 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodFourthofJulyonJordanLake14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosuresonUS 1andUS 641Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant6 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployees TransientsShadowSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic128%72%96%65%21%0%28%100%100%228%72%96%65%21%0%28%100%100%33%97%10%100%20%0%0%100%100%43%97%10%100%20%0%0%100%100%53%97%10%50%20%0%0%100%40%628%72%100%25%21%0%100%100%100%728%72%100%25%21%0%100%100%100%828%72%100%25%21%0%100%100%100%93%97%10%40%20%0%0%100%100%103%97%10%40%20%0%0%100%100%113%97%10%40%20%0%0%100%100%123%97%10%20%20%0%0%100%40%133%97%10%50%20%100%0%100%40%1428%72%96%65%21%0%28%100%100%ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees.................................................EPZemployeeswh oliveoutsidetheEPZTransients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow......................................................Residentsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTraffic.............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbysecurityroadblocks30minutesaftertheevacuationbegins. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant6 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadow SpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles 114,11536,5243,1142,85020,69702492286,96384,740214,11536,5243,1142,85020,69702492286,96384,74031,41249,2273244,38419,623002286,96382,16141,41249,2273244,38419,623002286,96382,16151,41249,2273242,19219,623002282,78575,791614,11536,5243,2441,09620,74708902286,96383,807714,11536,5243,2441,09620,74708902286,96383,807814,11536,5243,2441,09620,74708902286,96383,80791,41249,2273241,75419,623002286,96379,531101,41249,2273241,75419,623002286,96379,531111,41249,2273241,75419,623002286,96379,531121,41249,22732487719,623002282,78574,476131,41249,2273242,19219,6232,03302282,78577,8241414,11536,5243,1142,85020,69702492286,96384,740Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03) | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover36regionswithintheHNPEPZandthe14EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTabl e7 4.Table7 5definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZinSub ZonesforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevolunt aryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendationhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithinth eimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEfortheHNPEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpermanentresidentslocatedinSub Zonesoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,areassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedtha t20percentofthosepermanentresidentsintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof198,090peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4fo rthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion(includingexternalexternaltraffic),travelingawayfromtheHNPlocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingev acuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Sub Zonescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12. Sub Zonescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared.3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofth e2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 8illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthesummer,midweek,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario1).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However ,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedintheseFiguresbyathickredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.Congestiondevelopsrapidlyaroundconcentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecks.Figure7 3displayscon gestionpatternswithinthestudyareaat30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).Thereistrafficvolumeineachofthethreemajorpopulationcenters(Apex,Fuquay VarinaandHollySprings)intheEPZ,asindicatedbytheprevalen ceofcoloredlinks.Thisistobeexpectedasthepopulationdensityintheseareasishighandtherearemanyvehiclesbeginningtheirevacuationtripsfromthesecities.Theonly HarrisNuclearPlant7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1roadwaysexperiencingpronouncedtrafficcongestion(LOSF)atthistimeareHollySpringsRdnorthbound,US 64eastboundandLauraDuncanRdnorthboundattheintersectionofthesetworoads,US 64westboundandBeaverCreekRdnorthbound(transientsevacuatingfromJordanLakeStateRecreationArea)attheintersectionofthesetworoads,Par ker'sCreekRecreationAreaRdsouthboundapproachtoUS 64andSeaforthRecreationAreaRdnorthboundapproachtoUS 64(transientsevacuatingfromJordanLake).At1houraftertheATE,Figure7 4indicatesthattrafficcongestionwithinthestudyareahasintensified.AllofthemajorevacuationroutesservicingthethreepopulationcentersareexperiencingLOSFconditions.SeveralroadsintheShadowRegionarealsooperatingatLOSF,includingUS 401southboundleavingFuquay Varina,Ten TenRdeastboundleavingHollySprings,NC 55northboundleavingApex,andUS 64westboundinPittsboro.Notethatallroadwaysinthe2and5 MileRegion sarenotcongested(LOSA)atthistime.At1hourand30minutesaftertheATE,asshowninFigure7 5,trafficcongestioninthestudyareapeaks.Allroutesleavingthethreepopulationcentersareheavilycongested.Allroadswhichhaveinterchang eswithUS 1inWakeCountyarecongested.SeveralroadsintheShadowRegionareoperatingatLOSF,includingNC 55northbound,US 401southbound,Ten TenRdeastbound,andPennyRdeastbound.Thesecongestionpatternsreflectthelargenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromthethreepopulationcent erstryingtoaccessthemajorevacuationroutes-US 1,US 64,US 401,I 40,I 440andI 540-leavingthearea.Figure7 6displaysthecongestionpatternsat2hoursand30minutesaftertheATE.TrafficcongestioninApexandHollySpringsisdissipating,withonlyafewroutesoperatingatLOSF.Trafficcong estioninFuquay Varinaisalsodissipating,thoughallmajorevacuationroutesinthecityarestilloperatingatLOSF.CongestionintheShadowRegionisalsodissipating-Ten TenRdeastboundisclearing.LOSFconditionsexistatthistimealongHollySpringsRd/WalnutStattheinterchangewithUS 1/US 64,OptimistFarmRdeastbound,US 401southbound,LauraDuncanRdnorthboundandOldRaleighRdnorthbound.Overthenexthour,trafficcongestionclearsinApexandHollySprings.Figure7 7displaysthecongestionpatternsat3hoursand25minutesaftertheATE.ThelastofthecongestionintheEPZisinFuquay VarinaattheintersectionsofJuddParkwayandSunsetLakeRdwithUS 401.US 401isoperatingatLOSFsouthboundintheShadowRe gion,andLOSBnorthbound.HollySpringsRd/WalnutStattheinterchangewithUS 1/US 64isstilloperatingatLOSFintheShadowRegion.Finally,Figur e7 8displaysastudyareathatisessentiallyclearofevacuatingtraffic,at4hoursaftertheATE,whichis30minutespriortothecompletionofthetrip generation(mobilization)time.Thelastofthecongestioninth eEPZ,inFuquay Varina,clearsat3hoursand30minutesaftertheATE. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 9throughFigure7 22.TheseFiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioco nsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 9,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegintoevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeunti ltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1throughTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall36Evacua tionRegionsandall14EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3throughTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2 Mileregionforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Theyareorganizedasfollows:TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 8.Allofthecongestionislocatedbeyondthe5 mileradius;thisisreflectedintheETEstatistics: The2 mileRegion(R01)consistsofmorethan90%employeesandtransients.Thereisnocongestionwithinthisregion,whichmeansthatETEisdictatedbymobilizationti me.Assuch,the90 thpercentileETEforthisregionisequaltothe90 thpercentilemobilizationtimeforemployeesandtransients-about1:00(hr:min)onaverage. The5 mileRegion(R02)alsohasnocongestion,buthasmanymoreresidentvehiclesthanR01,whichincreasesthemobilizationtime(seeFigure5 4-mobilizationtimeislongerforresidentsthanforemployeesandtransients).The90 thpercentileETEforRegionR02isabout1:45onaverage. The90 thpercentileETEforRegionsR03(fullEPZ)andR13-R26(whichextendtotheEPZboundary)areapproximatelyanhourlonger,onaverage,duetothecongestionbeyondthe5 mileradius.The100 thpercentileETEforallRegionsandforallScenariosaretheequaltomobilizationtime.ThisfactimpliesthatthecongestionwithintheEPZdissipatespriortotheendofmobilization,asisdisplayedinFigure7 8.ComparisonofScenarios5and13inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-Fo urthofJulyfireworksonJordanLake-doesnotmateriallyimpactthe90 thpercentileETE.TheETEincreasesbyatmost15minutes.AsshowninFigure7 3throughFigure7 8anddiscussedinSection7.3,thecongestionwithintheEPZispredominantlytotheeastoftheplantnearthemajorpopulationcenters.Theadditional2,033vehiclespresentforthespecialeventarelocatedwes toftheplantandpredominantlyevacuatewestonUS 64.ThereissufficientadditionalcapacityonUS 64toservicetheseadditionalvehicles,whichexplainswhyETEarenotmateriallyaffected.ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonUS 1fromjusteastoftheinterchangewithNewHillHollemanRd(Exit89)totheinterch angewithI 40(Exit1A)andonelaneeastboundonUS 64fromNewHillOliveChapelRd/NC 751totheinterchangewithI 40(Exit1A)-causesatmosta10minuteincreaseinETE.Thisisnotamateri alchange.AsshowninFigure7 3throughFigure7 8,US 1northboundisoperatingbelowcapacity(LOSAthroughD),whilemostofUS 64eastboundisalsooperatingbelowcapacity(LOSFatsomesignalizedintersections).TherampstoUS 1havelimitedcapacityandthusmeterthetrafficenteringthemainthoroughfareofUS 1.Asaresult,thereisunusedcapacityonUS 1forallnon roadwayimpactscenarios.Thus,closingalanedoesnothaveanimpact.Inaddition,thereareotheralternateroutes-mostnotablyNC 55northboundandNC 540Tolleastboundwhichhaveavailablecapacity.SomevehiclesrerouteontotheseroadwaysasaresultofthelaneclosuresonUS 1andUS 64,offsettinganysubstantialincreaseinETE.NUREG/CR 7002recommendsthattheETEstudyconsiderpotentialenhancementsthatcouldimproveETE.AccordingtotheInstituteofNuclearPowerOperations(INPO)timelineforthe HarrisNuclearPlant7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1March2011accidentattheFukushimaDaiichiPowerStation,nearly18hourselapsedbetweenthelossofpoweratthesiteandthefirstreleasetotheatmosphere.The90 thpercentileETEforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)islessthan4hoursforallscenarios.ThepossiblecountermeasurestoreduceETEare: Reducethenumberofvehiclesontheroadbyeducatingthepublictousefewervehiclestoevacuate.Thisisverydifficulttoimplementasevacueesareunlikelytoleaveasignificanteconomicassetsuchasapersonalvehiclebehind. Usecontrafloworreverse laning.Thistechniqueissomanpowerandequipmentintensive,90percentofevacueeswillhavealreadylefttheEPZbythetimecontraflowisestablished.Assuch,ETEbenefitswouldbeminimal.Also,contraflowisasignificantliabilityinth atvehiclesaretravelingthewrongwayonaroad.Mostoffsiteagenciesarehesitanttousecontraflowforthisreasonalone. Identifyspecialtreatmentsatcriticalintersections-i.e.ifnorthboundandeastboundarebothviableevacuationdirectionsfromtheplant,conesandbarricadescouldbeusedtochannelizetheintersectionsuchthatonetrafficstreamisdirectednorthboundandtheothereastboundtoeliminateanyvehicleconflictattheintersectionandkeeptheintersectionflowingcontinuously.ThisisalsomanpowerandequipmentdependentandwillhavelittleimpactonETE.7.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3andTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEcompiledfortheconcurrent(un staged)andstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR27throughR36arethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR02andR04throughR12,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustshowthattheETEforthe2mil eregioncanbereducedwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheregionbetween2milesand5miles.Inallcases,asshowninthesetables,theETEforthe2mileregionisunchangedwhenastagedevacuationisimplemented.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,thereisnocongestionwithinthe2and5 mileregions.Inaddition,thecongestionbeyond5milesdoesnotextendupstreamtotheextentthatitpenetratestowithin2or5milesoftheHNP.Consequently,evacueesfromwithinthe2 mileregionareunimpeded.Therefore,stagingtheevacuati onprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregion.Whilefailingtoprovideassistancetoevacueesfromwithin2milesoftheHPP,stagingproducesanegativeimpactontheETEforthoseevacuatingfromwithinthe5 milearea.AcomparisonofETEbetweenRegionsR02andR04throughR12withRegionsR27throughR36revealsthatstagingretardsthe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthoseinthe2to5 mileareaby5minutes(seeTable7 1)forsomecases.ThisextendingofETEisduetothedelayinbeginningtheevacuationtrip,experiencedbythosewhoshelter.Insummary,thestagedevacuationoptionprovidesnobenefitsandadverselyimpactssomeevacueeslocatedbeyond2milesfromtheHNP. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain Ice* SpecialEven t FourthofJulyonJordanLake* RoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonUS 1andUS 64* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhiletheseScenariosaredesigned,inaggregat e,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(10)forrainapply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andicearenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(8)and(11)foriceapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellingto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewind HarrisNuclearPlant7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1direction).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation-fromN,NNE,NE-orindegrees.* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.TheapplicabledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(RegionR01) To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR12) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R13throughR26)* EnterTable7 5andidentifytheap plicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthedistancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromtheHNP.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionofth eplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* IdentifytherowinthistablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes | |||
. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10 that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionisfromthe180.* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea5 mileradiusanddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 5andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary"forwinddirectionfrom180andreadRegionR20inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR20.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR20;itcontainstheETEvalueof2:25. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R032:503:002:402:502:402:503:003:102:402:503:052:402:402:552 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR041:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R051:301:301:301:301:451:301:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R061:201:201:151:151:301:201:201:201:151:151:151:401:251:20R071:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R081:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R092:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R101:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:501:50R111:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R121:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:151:151:151:301:251:205 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR132:002:001:401:401:552:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:452:00R142:002:001:401:401:552:052:052:051:451:451:452:001:502:00R151:551:551:351:351:501:551:551:551:401:401:402:001:451:55R161:551:551:351:351:502:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:401:55R171:501:501:351:351:502:002:002:001:401:401:402:001:401:50R181:501:501:301:301:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R191:501:501:351:351:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R202:252:302:202:252:202:302:352:452:202:252:302:202:202:30R212:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R222:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R232:352:402:302:352:302:352:402:502:302:352:402:302:302:40 HarrisNuclearPlant7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR242:402:552:352:452:352:452:553:052:352:452:552:352:352:50R252:553:152:503:052:453:003:153:302:503:003:202:452:503:00R263:003:202:553:152:503:053:203:402:553:103:302:502:553:00StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R281:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R291:301:301:301:301:451:351:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R301:201:201:201:201:301:251:251:251:201:201:201:401:251:20R311:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R321:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R332:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R341:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:50R351:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R361:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:201:201:201:301:251:20 HarrisNuclearPlant7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend MidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend Weekend MidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:402 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R094:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R104:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R114:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R124:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:355 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR134:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R144:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R154:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R164:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R174:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R184:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R194:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R204:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R214:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R224:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R234:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40 HarrisNuclearPlant7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1R244:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R254:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R264:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R284:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R294:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R304:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R314:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R324:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R334:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R344:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R364:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35 HarrisNuclearPlant7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR041:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R051:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R061:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R071:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R081:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R091:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R101:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R111:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R121:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R281:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R291:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R301:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R311:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R321:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R331:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R341:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R351:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R361:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05 HarrisNuclearPlant7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR044:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R064:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R074:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R084:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R094:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R104:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R114:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R124:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R284:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R294:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R314:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R324:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R334:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R344:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R354:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R364:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30 HarrisNuclearPlant7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR012 MileRadius2 MileRadiusxR025 MileRadius5 MileRadiusxxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRadiusxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR04NNW,N327°010°xxxR05NNE,NE011°056°xxR06ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR07SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR08SSW192°214°xxR09SW,WSW215°259°xxxR10260°281°xxR11W,WNW282°304°xxxR12NW305°326°xxEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR13N348°034°xxxxxxxxR14NNExxxxxxxxxR15NExxxxxxxxR16ENE035°079°xxxxxxxxxR17E,ESE080°101°xxxxxxxxR18102°124°xxxxxxxR19SE125°146°xxxxxxxxR20SSE147°191°xxxxxxxxxR21S,SSWxxxxxxxxR22192°236°xxxxxxxR23SW237°259°xxxxxxxxR24WSW,WxxxxxxxxxR25WNW260°326°xxxxxxxxxR26NW,NNW327°347°xxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR275 MileRadiusxxxxxxR28NNW,N327°010°xxxR29NNE,NE011°056°xxR30ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR31SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR32SSW192°214°xxR33SW,WSW215°259°xxxR34260°281°xxR35W,WNW282°304°xxxR36NW305°326°xxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSub Zone(s)Shelter in PlaceSub Zone(s)Evacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology HarrisNuclearPlant7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.HNPShadowRegion HarrisNuclearPlant7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat1Hour30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2Hours30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat3Hours25MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100% | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100% | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100% | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100% | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario9)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100% | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario12)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100% | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant7 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure721.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03Figure722.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Evening,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario14)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100% | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles(buses,ambulances,andwheelchairtransportvehicles).Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschoolsandmedica lfacilities;and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepresentsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilit yTheseactivitiesconsumetime.Basedondiscussionwiththeoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbusmobilizationtimewillaverageapproximately90minutesextendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Thelocationofbusdepotsimpactsthetimetotravelfromthebusdepotstothefacilitiesbeingevacuated.Locationsofbusdepotswerenotidentifiedinthisstudy.Rather,theoffsiteagencieswereaskedtofactorthelocationofthedepotsandthedistancetotheEPZintotheestimateofmobilizationtime.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizat ionactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointh eirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentpublicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsoftheHNPEPZindicatesthatschoolchildren(includesprivateschoolsandchildcarecenters)willbeevacuatedtorelocationschoolswheretheycanbepickedupbytheirparents.AsdiscussedinSection2,thisstudyassumesarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtorelocationschools.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenw illbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.Itisassumedthatchildrenatday carecentersarepickedupbyparentsorguardiansandthatthe HarrisNuclearPlant8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1timetoperformthisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions* EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtothereceptioncenters8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailabl eatthetimetheevacuationisadvised.Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.Table8 1presentsestimatesoftransit dependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransit dependentpersonswillevacuat ebyride sharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedaridewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransit dependentpersonsisbasedonanestimateofaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transi tvehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60childrenonaverage(roughlyequivalentto40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthenumberof"adultseats"takenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverag eloadfactoranticipatedis(27/40)x100=68percent.Thus,iftheactualdemandforserviceexceedstheestimatesofTable8 1by50percent,thedemandforservicecanstillbeaccommoda tedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor3,419people.Therefore,atotalof114busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorride share,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheHNPEPZ:Where,A=PercentofhouseholdswithcommutersC=PercentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuterThesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(2.00avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(1.9%)willevacuatebypublictransitorride share.Theterm36,511(numberofhouseholds)x0.019x2.00,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(19.0%),whoareathome,equal(1.86 1).ThenumberofHHwherethecomm uterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(36,511x0.190x0.68x0.59),as68%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,59%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(51.5%),whoareathome,equal(3.01-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto36,511x0.515x(0.68x0.59)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehi cles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.Theestimateoftransit dependentpopulationinTable8 1farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransit dependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbythecounties(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR 6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajorityofthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 2presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolsandchildcarecenterswithintheEPZforthe2011 2012schoolyear.Thisinformationwasprovidedbythelocalcountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThecolumninTable8 2entitled"BusesRequired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunde rthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(asdiscussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR 7002),theestimateofbusesrequiredforschoolevacuationdoesnotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsandchildcarecentersand50formiddleandhighschools.* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacuateintheirprivatevehicles.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.Implementationofaprocesstoconfirmindividualschooltransportationneedspriortobusdispatchmayimprovebusutilization.Inthisway,thenumberofbusesdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Theneedforbuseswouldbereducedbyanyhighschoolstudentswhohaveevacuatedusingprivateautomobiles(ifpermittedbyschoolauthorities).Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuateschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveacces stoprivatevehiclesortoride sharing.Table8 3presentsalistoftherelocationschoolsforeachevacuatingschoolandchildcarecenterintheEPZ.Studentswillbetransportedtotheserelocationschoolswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.8.3 MedicalFacilityDemandTable8 4presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.896peoplehavebeenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,thesefacilities.Sincetheaveragenumberofpatien tsasthesefacilitiesfluctuatesoften,thecapacity,currentcensusandbreakdownofambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpatientsforeachfacilitywereprovidedbythecountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThetransportationrequirementsforthemedicalfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable8 4.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingth at2patientscanbeaccommodatedperambulancetrip;thenumberofwheelchairbusrunsassumes15wheelchairspertrip;thenumberofwheelchairvanrunsassumes4wheelchairspertrip;thenumberofminivanrunsassumes5patientspertrip;thenumberofpassengercarrunsassumes4patientspertripandthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientspertrip. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetimeoftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhatinefficient,orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,theETEforthetransit dependentpopulationwascalculatedforbothaonewavetransitevacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandthisdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.Itisassumedth atthereareenoughdriversavailabletomanallresourceslistedinTable8 5.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransit dependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinapositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyaredispatchedtothevariousroutesdescribedbelow.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortransittripsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure8 1presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure8 1.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Basedondiscussionswiththecountyemergencymanagementagencies,driverswouldlikelyrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransit dependentfacilitiesforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergenc ywithnoobservableindicationbeforethefact.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerinadverseweather-100minuteswhenraining,110minuteswithice.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)Basedondiscussionswiththeoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof15minutes(20minutesforrainand25minutesforice)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapick uproute(transit dependentbusroutes)estimationoftraveltimemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpick uppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:s=v 2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservice HarrisNuclearPlant8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1passengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s,wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespick uptimeperbusrunimplies30st opsperrun,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;totalloadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain,50minutesinice.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbytheEPZcountyemergencymanagementagenciesandaresummarizedinTable8 5.Alsoincludedinthetablearethenumberofbusesneededtoevacuateschoolsandchildcarecenters,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpopulationandhomeboundspecialneedspersons(discussedbelowinSection8.5).Thesenumbersin dicatetherearesufficientbus,wheelchairtransport,passengercarandambulanceresourcesavailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave.Therearenotenoughminivanstoevacuateinasinglewave.Therearesurplusbusesandpassengercarsavailabletosupplementtheshortageinminivanssuchthatallpeopleca nevacuateinasinglewave.Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus15minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusrout esalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriateschoolreceptioncenter.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.Eachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentoth eDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 6(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,100to105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows: | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsandchildcarecentersintheEPZisshowninTable8 7throughTable8 9forschoolandchildcarecenterevacuation,andinTable8 11throughTable8 13forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransit dependentpersons,whicharediscussedlater.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedistancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundarytothereloca tionschoolwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof45mph,41mph,and36mphforgoodweather,rainandice,respectively.SpeedswerereducedinTable8 7throughTable8 9andinTable8 11throughTable8 13to45mph(41mphforrain-10%decrease-and36mphforice-20%decrease)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhichexceed45mph,astheschoolbusspeedlimitinNorthCarolinais45mph.Table8 7(goodweather),Table8 8(rain)andTable8 9(ice)presentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)Th eelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)Theelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachestherelocationschool.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E(Forexample:90min.+15+7=1:55forMoncureElementarySchool,ingoodweather).TheevacuationtimetotherelocationschoolisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityE F(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevac uationtime.NotetheaveragesinglewaveETEforschoolsandchildcarecentersislessthanthe90 thpercentileETEforRegionR03forthegeneralpopulation.Therefore,theevacuationofschoolsandchildcarecenterswillnotimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmakingasthegeneralpopulationtakeslongertoevacuate.EvacuationofTransit DependentPopulationThebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransit dependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure5 4(ResidentswithnoCommuters),90percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,approximately120minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Sub ZonesE,FandGhavehightransit dependentpopulationsandrequiremorebusesthananyotherSub Zones(Table8 10).Assuch,separateroutescircu latingApex,HollySpringsandFuquay Varina(Sub ZonesE,FandG,respectively) | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1havebeenidentified.OtherroutesservicingSub Zoneswithalowertransit dependentpopulationwerealsoidentified.Thoserouteswithmultiplebuseshavebeendesignedsuchthatindividualbusesorgroupsofbusesaredispatchedusingvaryingheadways(5to30minutes),asshowninTable8 11throughTable8 13.Theuseofbusheadwaysensuresthatthosepeoplewhotakelongertomobilizewillbepickedup.Mobilizationtimeis10minuteslongerinra in(20minutesinice)toaccountforslowertravelspeedsandreducedroadwaycapacity.Thosebusesservicingthetransit dependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpick uproutes,thenproceedoutofth eEPZtotheirrespectiveReceptionCenter.Thecountyemergencyplansdonotidentifypredefinedbusroutesorpick uppointstoservicethetransit dependentpopulationintheEPZ.The10busroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure8 2anddescribedinTable8 10weredesignedbyKLDtoservicethemajo rroutesthrougheachSub Zone.Itisassumedthatresidentswillwalktothenearestmajorroadwayandflagdownapassingbus,andthattheycanarriveattheroadwaywithinthe120minutebusmobilizationtime(goodweather).Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof30minutes(goodweather)isestimatedfor30individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwitheachstop.Longerpickuptimesof40minutesand50m inutesareusedforrainandice,respect ively.Thetraveldistancealongtherespectivepick uprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoftware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEV,usingtheaforementionedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table8 11throughTable8 13presentthetransit dependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweather,rainandice,respectively.Forexample,theETEforthefirstgroupof3busesservicingthesouthernportionoftheEPZ(Route40-NC 42spanningSub ZonesG,H,Ian dK)iscomputedas120+27+30=3:00forgoodweather(roundeduptonearest5minutes).Here,27minutesisthetimetotravel20.2milesat45.0mph,theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelforthisroutestartingat120minutes.TheETEforasecondwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers;however,thisisunlikelygiventheampletransportationresourcesspreadbetweenthefourcountiesasshowninTable8 5.Activity:TraveltoRelocationSchoolsandReceptionCenters(E F)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytotherelocationschoolsandreceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtothereceptioncenter.TherelocationschoolsandreceptioncentersaremappedinFigure10 1.Foraone waveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwo waveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsider edseparately,sinceitcouldexceedtheETEforthegeneralpopulation.Assumedbusspeedsof45mph,41mph,and36mphforgoodweather,rain,andice,respectively,w illbeappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthe HarrisNuclearPlant8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1transit dependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(F G)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(G C)ThebusesassignedtoreturntotheEPZtoperforma"secondwave"evacuationoftransit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransit dependentpeoplewhomobilizedmorequickly.Thefirstwaveoftransit dependentpeopledepartthebus,andthebusthenreturnstotheEPZ,travelstoitsrouteandproceedstopickupmor etransit dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltimetothereceptioncenter.Thesecond waveETEforRoute40(NC 42spanningSub ZonesG,H,IandK)iscomputedasfollowsfo rgoodweather:* Busarrivesatreceptioncenterat3:13ingoodweather(3:00toexitEPZ+13minutetraveltimetoreceptioncenter).* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10minuterest:15minutes.* BusreturnstoEPZ,drivestothestartoftherouteandco mpletessecondroute:13minutes(equaltotraveltimetoreceptioncenter)+27minutes(equaltotraveltimetostartofroute,i.e.,20.2miles@45mph)+27minutes(equaltotraveltimeforsecondroute)=67minutes* Buscompletespick upsalongroute:30minutes.* BusexitsEP Zattime3:00+0:13+0:15+1:07+0:30=5:05(roundedtonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheETEforthecompletionofthesecondwaveforalltransit dependentbusroutesareprovidedinTable8 11throughTable8 13.NotetheaveragesinglewaveETEforthetransit dependentpopulationisgreaterthanthe90 thpercentileETEforRegionR03forthegeneralpopulation.Therefore,theevacuationoftransit dependentscouldimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmakingandshouldbeconsidered.TheaverageETEforatwo waveevacuationoftransit dependentpeoplealsoexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90 thpercentileandcouldalsoimpactprotectactiondecisionmaking.Therelocationoftransit dependentevacueesfromthereceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.EvacuationofMedicalFacilitiesTheevacuationofthesefacilitiesissimilartoschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof30patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythepatients.Wheelchairbusescanaccommodate15patients;wheelchairvans-4patients;ambulances-2patients;minivans-5patients,passengerscars-4patients. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* Basedonfeedbackfromthecountyemergencymanagementagencies,loadingtimesof2minutes,7minutes,and15minutesperpatientareusedforambulatory,wheelchairbound,andbedriddenpatients,respectively.Thevehiclesownedby/availabletoeachmedicalfacilitywereprovidedbythecountyemergencymanagementagencies.Itisassumedthatfacilitieswithahighwheelchair boundpopulationwillevacuateusingawheelchairbusandthatwheelchairvanswillevacuatethosefacilitieswithasmallerwheelchair boundpopulation.ItisassumedthatWakeCountymedicalfacilitieswithalowambulatorycensuswillevacuateviaminivansandpassengercars,sincethosearethetransportationassetsthosefacilitieshaveon site.Usingthedataprovided,theseassumptions,andtheaforementionedvehiclecapacities,Table8 4indicatesthat17busruns,15wheelchairbusruns,18wheelchairvanruns,27minivanruns,10passengercarrunsand56ambulancerunsareneededtoserviceallofthemedi calfacilitiesintheEPZ.Aspreviouslydiscussedtheshortfallinminivanscanbesupplementedbythesurplusbusandpassengercarresourcesavailable.Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverages90minutesingoodweather(100inrain,110inice).Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.Table8 14throughTable8 16summarizetheETEformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZforgoodweather,rain,andice.ThedistancesfromthemedicalfacilitiestotheEPZboundarywereestimatedusingGISsoftware.AveragespeedsoutputbythemodelforScenario6(Scenario7forrainandScenario8forice)Region3,cappedat45mph(41mphforrainand36mphforice),areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundaryiscomputedbydividingthedistancetotheEPZboundarybytheaveragetravelspeed.TheETEisthesumofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelchairbuses/vans,minivans,passengercarsandambulancesatcapacityisassumedsuchthatthemaximumloadingtimesforbuses(maximumcapacityof30times2minutesperpassenger),minivans(5times2),passengercars(4times2),wheelchairbuses(15times7),wheelchairvans(4times7),andambulances(2times15)are60,10,8,105,28and30mi nutes,respectively.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,thecalculationofETEforSanfordHealth&Rehabwith41ambulatoryresidentsduringgoodweatheris:ETE:90+30x2+3=153min.or2:35roundedtothenearest5minutes.Itisassumedthatmedi calfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughthereceptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.AverageETEformedicalfacilitiesarelessthanthe90 thpercentileETEfortheevacuationofthegeneralpopulationfromRegionR03andwillnotimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmaking. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.5 SpecialNeedsPopulationThecountyemergencymanagementagencieshaveacombinedregistrationfortransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Basedondataprovidedbythecounties,thereareanestimated19homeboundspecialneedspeople(14ambulatory,4wheelchair boundand1bedridden)withintheChathamCountyportionoftheEPZ;12homeboundspecialneedspeople(8ambulatory,3wheelchair boundand1bedridden)withintheHarnettCountyportionoftheEPZ;3homeboundspecialneedspeople(allambulatory)withintheLeeCountyportionoftheEPZand69homeboundspecialneedspeople(50ambulatory,12wheelchair boundand7bedridden)withinth eWakeCountyportionoftheEPZ.Thisresultsin75ambulatorypersons,19wheelchair boundpersonsand9bedriddenpersonsforatotalspecialneedspopulationof103people.Parentsareencouragedtoregistertheirchildreniftheywouldneedarideatanytimetoevacuate.Assuch,itisassumedth atlatchkeychildren,childrenwhoareathomewhilebothparentsareatwork,areincludedinthisdata.ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsTable8 17summarizestheETEforhomeboundspecialneedspeople.Thetableiscategorizedbytypeofvehiclerequiredandthenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesintoconsiderationthedeploymentofmultiplevehicles(notfilledtocapacity)toreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.DuetothelimitationsondrivingforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersons,itassumedtheywillbepickedupfromtheirhomes.Furthermore,itisconservativelyassumedthatambulatoryandwheel chairboundspecialneedshouseholdsarespaced3milesapartandbedriddenhouseholdsarespaced5milesapart.Vanandbusspeedsapproximate20mphbetweenhouseholdsandambulancespeedsap proximate30mphingoodweather(10%slowerinrain,20%slowerinice).Mobilizationtimesof90minuteswereused(100minutesforrain,and110minutesforice).ThelastHHisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthenetwork wideaveragespeed,cappedat45mp h(41mphforrainand36mphforice),afterthelastpickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.ETEiscomputedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtimeatfirsthousehold,traveltosubsequenthouseholds,loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexampl e,assumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperHHimpliesthat75ambulatoryhouseholdsneedtobeserviced.Whileonly3busesareneededfromacapacityperspective,if10busesaredeployedtoservicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequireatmost8stops.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:1. Assume10busesaredeployed,eachwithatmost8stops,toserviceatotalof75HH.2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:90minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirs tpickup:5minutesc. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:7@9minutes(3miles@20mph)=63minutesd. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:7@5minutes=35minutese. TraveltoEPZboundary:12minutes(5miles@24.5mph). | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ETE:90+5+63+35+12=3:25roundedtothenearest5minutesTheaverageETEforhomeboundspecialneedspopulationiscomparabletothe90 thpercentileETEforevacuationofthegeneralpopulationinRegionR03andwillnotimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmaking. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter/RelocationSchoolEBusExitsRegion FBusArrivesatReceptionCenter/RelocationSchoolGBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationServiceActivity A BDriverMobilization B CTraveltoFacilityortoPick upRoute C DPassengersBoardtheBus D EBusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary E FBusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenter/RelocationSchoolOutsidetheEPZ F GPassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreak Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time(SubsequentWave) | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes HarrisNuclearPlant8 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimatedNo.ofHouseholdsSurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHH withCommutersSurveyPercentHH withNonReturning CommutersTotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharing PercentagePeopleRequiringPublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiringPublicTransit012012102,9612.001.863.0136,5111.9%19.0%51.5%68%59%6,83850%3,4193.3% | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesSubZoneSchoolNameEnrollment BusesRequiredEA.V.BaucomElementarySchool96214EApexElementarySchool67010EApexMiddleSchool1,08622EApexSeniorHighSchool2,30046ELufkinRoadMiddleSchool1,01021EOliveChapelElementarySchool93314ESt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool70411EThalesAcademy3197FHollyGroveElementarySchool98014FHollyGroveMiddleSchool1,13623FHollyRidgeElementarySchool72411FHollyRidgeMiddleSchool1,03321FHollySpringsElementarySchool1,12117FHollySpringsHighSchool2,10843FNewSchool,Inc.Montessori1803GFuquay VarinaMiddleSchool90319GFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool1,92539GHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool86713GLincolnHeightsElementarySchool4747GSouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool1193MMoncureElementarySchool2855S.R.DeepRiverElementarySchool63810S.R.LafayetteElementarySchool78012SchoolSubtotal 21,257385SubZoneChildCareCenterNameEnrollment BusesRequiredEAllAboutKids1252EApexBaptistChurchPreschool1743EApexChildCarewithDebbie51EApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool782EGraceChurchPreschool822EHopeChapelPreschool752EWoodhavenBaptistPre school1022EEarthAngel'sDayCareHome81EEdithFranklinDayCareHome51ELori'sFamilyDayCare21 HarrisNuclearPlant8 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SubZoneSchoolNameEnrollment BusesRequiredEPlayCare61EVickie'sDayCareHome51EGoddardSchoolApex1202EGrowingYearsLearningCenter1002EJudy'sHomeCare51EKarin' 4Kidz81EMoravicFamilyDayCare51FHollySpringsLearningCenter1593FHollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation882FHomeAwayFromHomeChildcare51FKiddieAcademyofHollySprings1453FKris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare51FLittleDreamersPreschool1112FSisters'ChildCareServices201FStellaLowerySmallDayCareHome51FSunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool661FTheCarolinaSchool501GAMother'sLove51GChildcareNetwork-Fuquay Varina1132GFuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare982GFuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith1803GGingerbreadLittleversity Downtown992GLittleAngelsPreparatory501GLittleMiracles41GReadyOrNotHereIGrow922GShiningStarChildCareHome51GSouthWakePreschool&Academy371GSpinningWheelsLearningCenter241GVanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome71ChildCareCenterSubtotal 2,27360TOTAL: 23,530445 HarrisNuclearPlant8 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.RelocationSchoolsforSchoolsandChildCareCentersSchool/ChildCareCenterRelocationSchoolDeepRiverElementarySchoolBenjaminT.BullockElementarySchoolSt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchoolCardinalGibbonsHighSchoolFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchoolGarnerHighSchoolAMother'sLoveChildcareNetwork-Fuquay VarinaFuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCareFuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaithGingerbreadLittleversity DowntownLittleAngelsPreparatoryLittleMiraclesReadyOrNotHereIGrowShiningStarChildCareHomeSouthWakePreschool&AcademySouthernWakeAcademyHighSchoolSpinningWheelsLearningCenterVanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHomeLafayetteElementarySchoolHarnettCentralMiddleSchoolHollyGroveMiddleSchoolKnightdaleHighSchoolHollyRidgeElementarySchoolHollyRidgeMiddleSchoolHollySpringsElementarySchoolA.V.BaucomElementarySchoolLeesvilleHighSchoolApexMiddleSchoolLufkinRoadMiddleSchoolOliveChapelElementarySchoolFuquay VarinaMiddleSchoolMillbrookHighSchoolHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchoolLincolnHeightsElementarySchoolMoncureElementarySchoolNorthwoodHighSchoolApexElementarySchoolSandersonHighSchoolAllAboutKidsApexBaptistChurchPreschoolApexChildCarewithDebbieApexSeniorHighSchoolApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschoolEarthAngel'sDayCareHome HarrisNuclearPlant8 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1School/ChildCareCenterRelocationSchoolEdithFranklinDayCareHomeGoddardSchoolApexSandersonHighSchoolGraceChurchPreschoolGrowingYearsLearningCenterHopeChapelPreschoolJudy'sHomeCareKarin' 4KidzLori'sFamilyDayCareMoravicFamilyDayCarePlayCareThalesAcademyVickie'sDayCareHomeWoodhavenBaptistPre schoolHollyGroveElementarySchoolSoutheastRaleighHighSchoolHollySpringsHighSchoolHollySpringsLearningCenterHollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducationHomeAwayFromHomeChildcareKiddieAcademyofHollySpringsKris'HomeSweetHomeDaycareLittleDreamersPreschoolNewSchool,Inc.MontessoriSisters'ChildCareServicesStellaLowerySmallDayCareHomeSunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschoolTheCarolinaSchool HarrisNuclearPlant8 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemandSubZoneFacilityNameCapacity CurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedridden BusRunsWheelchairBusRunsWheel chairVanRunsMinivanRunsCarRuns Ambu lanceLEECOUNTYMEDICALFACILITIESJSanfordHealth&Rehab1371374169272500014LeeCountySubtotal:1371374169272500014WAKECOUNTYMEDICALFACILITIESABrown'sFamilyCareHome66600100000AJamesRestHome403828100103000CMurchisonResidentialCorpHome33300000010EAzaleaGardensMentalHealth66600000200EBrookridgeAssistedLiving555240120203000EFavourHome66600000020EKingsGroupHomeforChildren44400000010ELockleyRoadHome66600000200EMasonStreetGroupHome66600000200EOliveHome66600000200ERexRehab&NursingCenterofApex107902040301300015ESeagravesFamilyCareHome64400000100EShackletonHome33300000010ESpringArborofApex766647190205000 HarrisNuclearPlant8 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SubZoneFacilityNameCapacity CurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedridden BusRunsWheelchairBusRunsWheel chairVanRunsMinivanRunsCarRuns Ambu lanceEWakeMedApexHealthplex 11212741101001FAventFerryHome66600000200FBassLakeHome66600000020FCountryLaneGroupHome66600000200FHerbertReidHome55500000100FHickoryAvenueHome66600000200FSt.Mark'sManor99900000200FTrotter'sBluff66600000200GCreekwayHome66600000200GEvans WalstonHome33300000010GFuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly80626020201000GHopeHouse44400000010GKintonCourtHome16161600000400GLifeSkillsIndependentCare#144400000100GMim'sFamilyCareHome62200000010GWakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility363502015005008GWindsorPointContinuingCare300275140100355700018WakeCountySubtotal:84175947120781151018271042TOTAL:978896512276108171518271056Notes:1Thisfacilityisastand aloneEmergencyDepartmentwithaconstantlychangingbreakdownofpatients.Anaverageofthe%breakdownofothermedicalfacilitieswasapplied HarrisNuclearPlant8 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceBusesWheelchair BusesWheelchair VansMinivansPassengerCarsAmbulances MedevacHelicopterResourcesAvailableWakeCountyPublicSchoolSystem883WakeCountyEMSApex3WakeCountyEMSFuquay Varina2WakeCountyEMSHollySprings2EasternWakeandCaryAreaEMS139WakeMedCriticalCare201RexHealthcare4AventFerryHome1AzaleaGardensMentalHealth1BassLakeHome1BrookridgeAssistedLiving2CountryLaneGroupHome1CreekwayHome1Evans WalstonHome1FavourHome4Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly1HerbertReidHome1HickoryAvenueHome1HopeHouse1KingsGroupHomeforChildren4KintonCourtHome2LifeSkillsIndependentCare#11LockleyRoadHome1MasonStreetGroupHome1Mim'sFamilyCareHome1MurchisonResidentialCorpHome1OliveHome1 HarrisNuclearPlant8 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TransportationResourceBusesWheelchair BusesWheelchair VansMinivansPassengerCarsAmbulances MedevacHelicopterSeagravesFamilyCareHome1ShackletonHome1SpringArborofApex1St.Mark'sManor1Trotter'sBluff1WindsorPointContinuingCare1ChathamTransit131122ChathamCountyEMSStationsFirstHealth8MoncureElementarySchool5LeeCounty1308CentralCarolinaHospital(CCH)1CountyofLeeTransitSystem(COLTS)1518SanfordHealth&Rehab1HarnettCounty2572HarnettAreaTransitSystem1AndersonCreekEmergencyServices3ErwinFireRescue2CoatsGroveFireDepartment2TOTAL: 1,27719351917931ResourcesNeededSchoolsandChildCareCenters(Table8 2): 443MedicalFacilities(Table8 4): 171518271056TransitDependentPopulation(Table8 10): 114HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5): 1055TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 58415242710610 HarrisNuclearPlant8 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1ApexElementarySchool1276,1275,757,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,6012ApexSeniorHighSchool,Judy'sHomeCare1018,1450,1203ApexMiddleSchool319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,6014A.V.BaucomElementarySchool694,1282,710,669,665,660,325,326,327,396,15786LufkinRoadMiddleSchool447,60,692,6017OliveChapelElementarySchool296,299,1541,1542,1539,1544,434,1543,1343,1532,15318St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool1010,291,1277,292,1276,294,319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60110HollyGroveElementarySchool,HollyGroveMiddleSchool,HollySpringsHighSchool,HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare156,140,1319,21,33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60111HollyRidgeElementarySchool,HollyRidgeMiddleSchool555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,525,51112HollySpringsElementarySchool439,555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,525,51113SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool,SouthWakePreschool&Academy431,1032,1573,1033,1257,1254,1256,1255,125814NewSchool,Inc.MontessoriSunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool,StellaLowerySmallDayCareHome50,1463,51,52,790,520,522,524,525,51115Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool,ReadyOrNotHereIGrow,VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome1031,1253,424,226,1574,20216Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool957,226,1574,20217LincolnHeightsElementarySchool894,228,959,204,203,1030,226,1574,20218MoncureElementarySchool74,261,770,771,77219HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool789,47,1462,1461,46,44,43,126120ThalesAcademy,ApexChildCarewithDebbie1450,1018,585,1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,60140TransitDependentSouthernEPZ872,873,874,875,807,866,809,808,810,811,839,840,841,842 HarrisNuclearPlant8 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary41TransitDependentEasternEPZ31,32,33,21,35,435,1264,615,431,1032,1573,1033,1257,1254,1256,1255,1258,126342TransitDependentNorthernEPZ128,641,129,130,466,1024,1598,1025,135,620,65543TransitDependentApex315,314,306,299,303,304,1280,694,297,703,1378,585,1018,1450,120,587,122,123,1582,672,126,326,325,660,665,669,710,1282,694,702,294,319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60144TransitDependentHollySprings439,441,1036,443,444,25,26,24,30,31,32,33,21,35,438,1320,1321,439,555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,525,51145TransitDependentFuquay Varina957,958,229,1250,228,1504,957,226,1030,203,204,959,228,1250,229,1100,1099,1499,1249,1501,1502,1575,20246TransitDependentSub ZonesA,B278,632,436,282,283,235,239,241,243,244,245,246,249,251,128,433,1539,1544,434,1543,1343,1532,153147TransitDependentSub ZonesC,D1318,156,140,1319,21,33,3248TransitDependSub ZoneJ1580,913,915,914,916,918,917,91949TransitDependentSub ZoneM281,280,279,277,27550MajorEvacuationRouteNC 540TollNB1551,1346,1345,1545,1344,1546,1543,1343,1532,1531,1533,1568,1342,1341,1338,1337,134051MajorEvacuationRouteUS 64EB641,128,433,1539,1544,434,127,1584,1593,126,672,1582,123,122,587,120,119,116,1011,583,58452MajorEvacuationRouteUS 64WB128,641,129,130,466,1024,1598,1025,135,620,655,61853MajorEvacuationRouteUS 1NB76,1138,73,72,1557,1555,1560,582,1552,71,690,759,691,1583,692,60154MajorEvacuationRouteUS 1SB76,579,577,575,10,6,1,592,22,78,630,83,8455MajorEvacuationRouteNC 42WB872,873,874,875,807,866,809,808,810,811,839,840,84156MajorEvacuationRouteNC 55NB33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,758,1273,1271,1274,734,320,319,294,702,694,1282,710,669,665,660,325,326,327,396,157859Mim'sFamilyCareHome893,894,228,959,204,203,1030,226,157460Brown'sFamilyCareHome,JamesRestHome452,75,73,72,1557,1555,1560,582,1552,71,690,759,691,1583,692,601 HarrisNuclearPlant8 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary62RexRehab&NursingCenterofApex734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60163SpringArborofApex304,1280,694,297,298,1281,670,671,123,122,587,12071Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly206,1100,1099,1499,1249,1501,1502,1575,20272WindsorPointContinuingCare1033,425,1031,1253,424,226,1574,20273SanfordHealth&Rehab83,84,87,8974WakeMedApexHealthplex665,660,325,126,672,1582,123,122,587,12075AventFerryHome,CountryLaneGroupHome,Trotter'sBluff1319,21,33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60176BassLakeHome439,555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,52577BrookridgeAssistedLiving1276,294,319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60179CreekwayHome1499,1249,150180Evans WalstonHome44,43,1261,4281FavourHome444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60182HerbertReidHome,St.Mark'sManor54,53,791,52,790,520,522,524,52583HickoryAvenueHome438,1320,1321,439,441,1036,443,444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60184KintonCourtHome229,1250,228,959,204,203,1030,226,1574,20285MasonStreetHome1378,585,1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,60187SeagravesFamilyCareHome294,1451,703,297,1454,1018,1450,12090WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility1100,229,1250,228,959,204,203,1030,226,1574,20291AzaleaGardensMentalHealth,MasonStreetGroupHome,OliveHome1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,60192HopeHouse1254,1256,1255,1258,1263,20293KingsGroupHomeforChildren299,1541,1542,1539,1544,434,127,1584,1593,126,672,1582,123,122,587,12094LifeSkillsIndependentCare#11262,1259,1258,1263,202,1576,4295LockleyRoadHome790,520,522,524,52596MurchisonResidentialCorpHome158,156,140,1319,21,33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601,693 HarrisNuclearPlant8 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary97ShackletonHome1272,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601,693110Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare,Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith957,226,1574,202111LittleAngelsPreparatory,LittleMiracles,ShiningStarChildCareHome1100,1099,1499,1249112ChildcareNetworkFuquay Varina,GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown959,204,203,1030,226,1574,202113AMother'sLove1032,1573,1033,1257,1254,1256,1255,1258114SpinningWheelsLearningCenter48,47,56115HollySpringsLearningCenter,Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare,Sisters'ChildCareServices,TheCarolinaSchool555,715,716,52,790,520,519,518,517,1436,454,717,459116HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation,KiddieAcademyofHollySprings,LittleDreamersPreschool443,444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601117Karin' 4Kidz444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601118AllAboutKids,GraceChurchPreschool,WoodhavenBaptistPre school517,1436,454,717,459119EarthAngel'sDayCareHome1211,1063,728,727,1374,454,717,459120ApexBaptistChurchPreschool,ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool,EdithFranklinDayCareHome,GoddardSchoolApex,GrowingYearsLearningCenter,Vickie'sDayCareHome294,1451,703,1378,585,1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,601121PlayCare682,1283,684,660,325,126,672,1582,123,122,587,120122Lori'sFamilyDayCare,MoravicFamilyDayCare1221,1220,60,692,601123HopeChapelPreschool301,1009,673,671,123,122,587,120 HarrisNuclearPlant8 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool90154.745.071:558.4122:10HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 190150.00.001:453.961:55LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 190150.00.001:458.8122:00WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool90153.041.251:5017.3242:15ApexElementarySchool90153.345.051:5014.7202:10ApexMiddleSchool90152.945.041:5017.1232:15ApexSeniorHighSchool90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25LufkinRoadMiddleSchool90151.245.021:5017.1232:15OliveChapelElementarySchool90153.38.0252:1017.4242:35St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool90154.940.581:5510.6152:10ThalesAcademy90152.936.351:5014.7202:10HollyGroveElementarySchool90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25HollyGroveMiddleSchool90158.230.7172:0524.9342:40HollyRidgeElementarySchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollyRidgeMiddleSchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollySpringsElementarySchool90153.77.7302:1524.7332:50HollySpringsHighSchool90158.730.7172:0513.5192:25NewSchool,Inc.Montessori90152.721.781:5513.4182:15Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool90150.93.9142:0028.4382:40Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool90153.335.361:5527.0372:35LincolnHeightsElementarySchool90151.73.6292:1528.4382:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05 HarrisNuclearPlant8 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids90151.545.031:5016.1222:15ApexBaptistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15ApexChildCarewithDebbie90153.036.351:5014.7202:10ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15EarthAngel'sDayCareHome90151.839.131:5016.1222:15EdithFranklinDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GoddardSchoolApex90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GraceChurchPreschool90151.545.031:5016.1222:15GrowingYearsLearningCenter90152.718.491:5514.7202:15HopeChapelPreschool90151.411.381:5515.9222:20Judy'sHomeCare90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25Karin' 4 Kidz90154.426.2112:0014.7202:20Lori'sFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10MoravicFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10PlayCare90153.219.2112:0015.9222:25Vickie'sDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15WoodhavenBaptistPre school90151.545.031:5016.1222:15HollySpringsLearningCenter90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25KiddieAcademyofHollySprings90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25LittleDreamersPreschool90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Sisters'ChildCareServices90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25StellaLowerySmallDayCare90151.521.651:5013.4182:10SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.721.781:5513.4182:15 HarrisNuclearPlant8 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25AMother'sLove90152.94.0442:3012.8182:50ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30LittleAngelsPreparatory90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00LittleMiracles90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00ReadyOrNotHereIGrow90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25ShiningStarChildCareHome90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00SouthWakePreschool&Academy90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05SpinningWheelsLearningCenter90151.439.031:5011.2152:05VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25MaximumforEPZ:2:45Maximum:3:05AverageforEPZ:2:05Average:2:25Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant8 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool100204.741.072:108.4132:25HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:003.962:10LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:008.8132:15WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool100203.035.062:1017.3262:40ApexElementarySchool100203.341.052:0514.7222:30ApexMiddleSchool100202.941.052:0517.1262:35ApexSeniorHighSchool100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35LufkinRoadMiddleSchool100201.241.022:0517.1262:35OliveChapelElementarySchool100203.38.1252:2517.4262:55St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool100204.936.492:1010.6162:30ThalesAcademy100202.936.752:0514.7222:30HollyGroveElementarySchool100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40HollyGroveMiddleSchool100208.231.1162:2024.9373:00HollyRidgeElementarySchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollyRidgeMiddleSchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollySpringsElementarySchool100203.77.6302:3024.7373:10HollySpringsHighSchool100208.731.1172:2013.5202:40NewSchool,Inc.Montessori100202.727.072:1013.4202:30Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool100200.92.9182:2028.4423:05Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool100203.334.962:1027.0402:50LincolnHeightsElementarySchool100201.72.9362:4028.4423:25SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25 HarrisNuclearPlant8 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids100201.541.032:0516.1242:30ApexBaptistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40ApexChildCarewithDebbie100203.036.752:0514.7222:30ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40EarthAngel'sDayCareHome100201.835.442:0516.1242:30EdithFranklinDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GoddardSchoolApex100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GraceChurchPreschool100201.541.032:0516.1242:30GrowingYearsLearningCenter100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40HopeChapelPreschool100201.44.9182:2015.9242:45Judy'sHomeCare100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35Karin' 4 Kidz100204.440.472:1014.7222:35Lori'sFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30MoravicFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30PlayCare100203.29.9202:2015.9242:45Vickie'sDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40WoodhavenBaptistPre school100201.541.032:0516.1242:30HollySpringsLearningCenter100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation100204.530.792:1013.5202:30HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40KiddieAcademyofHollySprings100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45LittleDreamersPreschool100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Sisters'ChildCareServices100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45StellaLowerySmallDayCare100201.522.542:0513.4202:25SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.727.072:1013.4202:30 HarrisNuclearPlant8 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45AMother'sLove100202.94.4402:4012.8193:00ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50LittleAngelsPreparatory100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20LittleMiracles100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20ReadyOrNotHereIGrow100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45ShiningStarChildCareHome100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20SouthWakePreschool&Academy100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25SpinningWheelsLearningCenter100201.435.832:0511.2172:25VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45MaximumforEPZ:3:05Maximum:3:25AverageforEPZ:2:20Average:2:45Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlant8 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool110254.736.082:258.4142:40HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:153.972:25LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:158.8152:30WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool110253.031.762:2517.3292:55ApexElementarySchool110253.336.062:2514.7252:50ApexMiddleSchool110252.936.052:2017.1292:50ApexSeniorHighSchool110250.85.492:2515.9272:55LufkinRoadMiddleSchool110251.236.022:2017.1292:50OliveChapelElementarySchool110253.38.1252:4017.4293:10St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool110254.935.892:2510.6182:45ThalesAcademy110252.932.662:2514.7252:50HollyGroveElementarySchool110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00HollyGroveMiddleSchool110258.225.7202:3524.9423:20HollyRidgeElementarySchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollyRidgeMiddleSchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollySpringsElementarySchool110253.77.1322:5024.7423:35HollySpringsHighSchool110258.727.8192:3513.5233:00NewSchool,Inc.Montessori110252.719.992:2513.4232:50Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool110250.92.9182:3528.4483:25Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool110253.328.572:2527.0463:15LincolnHeightsElementarySchool110251.72.2473:0528.4483:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids110251.536.032:2016.1272:50ApexBaptistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50ApexChildCarewithDebbie110253.032.562:2514.7252:50ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50EarthAngel'sDayCareHome110251.831.042:2016.1272:50EdithFranklinDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GoddardSchoolApex110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GraceChurchPreschool110251.536.032:2016.1272:50GrowingYearsLearningCenter110252.723.182:2514.7252:50HopeChapelPreschool110251.44.1212:4015.9273:10Judy'sHomeCare110250.85.492:2515.9272:55Karin' 4 Kidz110254.436.082:2514.7252:50Lori'sFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45MoravicFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45PlayCare110253.28.0252:4015.9273:10Vickie'sDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50WoodhavenBaptistPre school110251.536.032:2016.1272:50HollySpringsLearningCenter110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00KiddieAcademyofHollySprings110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00LittleDreamersPreschool110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Sisters'ChildCareServices110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00StellaLowerySmallDayCare110251.518.452:2013.4232:45SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.719.992:2513.4232:50 HarrisNuclearPlant8 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00AMother'sLove110252.94.0443:0012.8223:25ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10LittleAngelsPreparatory110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45LittleMiracles110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45ReadyOrNotHereIGrow110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05ShiningStarChildCareHome110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45SouthWakePreschool&Academy110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40SpinningWheelsLearningCenter110251.431.932:2011.2192:40VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05MaximumforEPZ:3:20Maximum:3:55AverageforEPZ:2:35Average:3:05Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlant8 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutesRouteNo.ofBusesRouteDescriptionSub ZonesServicedLength(mi.)409SouthernEPZ:NC 42fromFuquay VarinawestoutoftheEPZtowardSanfordG(10%)+H+I+K20.24112EasternEPZ:NC 55southboundfromentranceintoEPZthroughHollySpringsandFuquay VarinaE(15%)+F(10%)+G(10%)14.74211NorthernEPZ:US 64westboundfromintersectionwithSalemSt(SR1011)outofEPZtowardsPittsboroE(20%)+N13.04333CirculatethroughApex,theneastoutofEPZtoReceptionCentersE(65%)17.24422CirculatethroughHollySprings,thennortheastoutofEPZtoReceptionCentersF(90%)20.54519CirculatethroughFuquay Varina,thensouthoutofEPZtoReceptionCentersG(80%)8.3462Sub ZonesA,B:OldUS 1eastboundtoNewHillOliveRdnorthbound,thenoutoftheEPZalongUS 64WBtoNC 540TollA+B14.3473Sub ZonesC,D:CassHoltRdeastboundtowardsHollySprings,thenalongHollySpringsNewHillRdwestbound.ExitsEPZalongUS 1eastboundtoReceptionCentersC+D17.3481Sub ZoneJ:PicksupevacueesalongLowerMoncureRdsouthbound,thenoutofEPZtowardsSanfordJ6.0492Sub ZoneM:OldUS 1inMoncuretoMoncurePittsboroRdnorthbound,toGumSpringsChurchRdoutoftheEPZtowardsPittsboroM9.9Total:114 HarrisNuclearPlant8 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 312020.245.027303:0010.01351067305:054 613520.245.027303:1510.01351067305:206 915020.245.027303:3010.01351067305:35411 312014.710.584303:5512.81751056305:554 613014.711.378304:0012.81751056306:006 914014.712.570304:0012.81751056306:009 1215014.713.963304:0512.81751056306:05421 312013.045.017302:506.5951044304:304 613013.045.017303:006.5951044304:406 914013.045.017303:106.5951044304:509 1115013.045.017303:206.5951044305:00431 512017.219.254303:2514.72051066305:406 1012517.221.847303:2514.72051066305:4011 1513017.222.546303:3014.72051066305:4516 2013517.223.544303:3014.72051066305:4521 2514017.226.539303:3014.72051066305:4526 2914517.227.737303:3514.72051066305:5030 3315017.230.534303:3514.72051066305:50441 412020.519.862303:3513.41851073305:555 712520.520.560303:3513.41851073305:558 1013020.521.358303:4013.41851073306:0011 1313520.524.151303:4013.41851073306:0014 1614020.525.349303:4013.41851073306:0017 1914520.526.746303:4513.41851073306:0520 2215020.527.844303:4513.41851073306:05 HarrisNuclearPlant8 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41208.35.787304:0013.71851043305:505 71308.36.182304:0513.71851043305:558 101358.36.379304:0513.71851043305:5511 131408.36.576304:1013.71851043306:0014 161458.36.873304:1013.71851043306:0017 191508.37.170304:1013.71851043306:0046112014.345.019302:5024.23251070305:20215014.345.019303:2024.23251070305:5047112017.335.929303:0018.82551071305:25213517.339.027303:1518.82551071305:40315017.338.927303:3018.82551071305:554811206.045.08302:4010.51451030304:104911209.945.013302:457.41051036304:2021509.945.013303:157.41051036304:50MaximumETE:4:10MaximumETE:6:05AverageETE:3:35AverageETE:5:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 313020.241.030403:2010.01551074405:454 614520.241.030403:3510.01551074406:006 916020.241.030403:5010.01551074406:15411 313014.79.593404:2512.81951062406:454 614014.710.287404:3012.81951062406:506 915014.711.080404:3512.81951062406:559 1216014.712.173404:3512.81951062406:55421 313013.041.019403:106.5951047405:054 614013.041.019403:206.5951047405:156 915013.041.019403:306.5951047405:259 1116013.041.019403:406.5951047405:35431 513017.219.553403:4514.72151071406:156 1013517.220.251403:5014.72151071406:2011 1514017.221.049403:5014.72151071406:2016 2014517.223.644403:5014.72151071406:2021 2515017.224.742403:5514.72151071406:2526 2915517.227.138403:5514.72151071406:2530 3316017.228.237404:0014.72151071406:30441 413020.518.666404:0013.42051080406:355 713520.519.364404:0013.42051080406:358 1014020.521.757404:0013.42051080406:3511 1314520.522.854404:0013.42051080406:3514 1615020.523.952404:0513.42051080406:4017 1915520.524.949404:0513.42051080406:4020 2216020.527.445404:0513.42051080406:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41308.34.8105404:3513.72051047406:405 71408.35.099404:4013.72051047406:458 101458.35.296404:4513.72051047406:5011 131508.35.493404:4513.72051047406:5014 161558.35.590404:5013.72051047406:5517 191608.35.787404:5013.72051047406:5546113014.341.021403:1524.23551077406:05216014.341.021403:4524.23551077406:3547113017.330.134403:2518.82751078406:05214517.335.030403:3518.82751078406:15316017.335.329403:5018.82751078406:304811306.041.09403:0010.51551033404:454911309.940.815403:057.41151040404:5521609.941.014403:357.41151040405:25MaximumETE:4:50MaximumETE:6:55AverageETE:4:00AverageETE:6:20 HarrisNuclearPlant8 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 314020.236.034503:4510.01751084506:354 615520.236.034504:0010.01751084506:506 917020.236.034504:1510.01751084507:05411 314014.78.6102504:5512.82151070507:354 615014.79.395504:5512.82151070507:356 916014.711.180504:5012.82151070507:309 1217014.712.173504:5512.82151070507:35421 314013.036.022503:356.51151054505:454 615013.036.022503:456.51151054505:556 916013.036.022503:556.51151054506:059 1117013.036.022504:056.51151054506:15431 514017.217.659504:1014.72451081507:006 1014517.218.257504:1514.72451081507:0511 1515017.219.154504:1514.72451081507:0516 2015517.221.249504:1514.72451081507:0521 2516017.222.047504:2014.72451081507:1026 2916517.223.943504:2014.72451081507:1030 3317017.224.642504:2514.72451081507:15441 414020.516.475504:3013.42251090507:305 714520.516.973504:3013.42251090507:308 1015020.518.866504:3013.42251090507:3011 1315520.519.463504:3013.42251090507:3014 1616020.520.261504:3513.42251090507:3517 1916520.520.959504:3513.42251090507:3520 2217020.522.954504:3513.42251090507:35 HarrisNuclearPlant8 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41408.33.9128505:2013.72351054507:455 71508.34.1122505:2513.72351054507:508 101558.34.2120505:2513.72351054507:5011 131608.34.3117505:3013.72351054507:5514 161658.34.4114505:3013.72351054507:5517 191708.35.689505:1013.72351054507:3546114014.336.024503:3524.24051088506:50217014.336.024504:0524.24051088507:2047114017.324.443503:5518.83151089507:00215517.331.034504:0018.83151089507:05317017.332.032504:1518.83151089507:204811406.034.211503:2510.51751037505:254911409.935.917503:307.41251045505:3521709.936.017504:007.41251045506:05MaximumETE:5:30MaximumETE:7:55AverageETE:4:25AverageETE:7:05 HarrisNuclearPlant8 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table814.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)SanfordHealth&RehabAmbulatory90241601.932:35Wheelchairbound907691051.933:20Bedridden 90152730 1.9 32:05 Brown'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory9026123.341:50JamesRestHomeAmbulatory90228563.342:30Wheelchairbound 90 71028 3.3 42:05 MurchisonResidentialCorpHomeAmbulatory902369.7202:00AzaleaGardensMentalHealthAmbulatory9026102.131:45BrookridgeAssistedLivingAmbulatory90240603.652:35Wheelchairbound 90 71228 3.6 52:05 FavourHomeAmbulatory902684.6151:55KingsGroupHomeforChildrenAmbulatory902484.6222:00LockleyRoadHomeAmbulatory9026101.781:50MasonStreetGroupHomeAmbulatory9026102.131:45OliveHomeAmbulatory9026102.131:45RexRehab&NursingCenterofApexAmbulatory90220402.642:15Wheelchairbound907401052.643:20Bedridden 90153030 2.6 42:05 SeagravesFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory902483.5362:15ShackletonHomeAmbulatory902363.041:40SpringArborofApexAmbulatory90247602.982:40Wheelchairbound90719282.9162:15 HarrisNuclearPlant8 45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)WakeMedApexHealthplexAmbulatory9027142.991:55Wheelchairbound9074282.982:10Bedridden 90 15 1 15 2.9 91:55 AventFerryHomeAmbulatory9026107.4121:55BassLakeHomeAmbulatory902684.1372:15CountryLaneGroupHomeAmbulatory 9026 10 7.4 121:55 HerbertReidHomeAmbulatory9025103.3111:55HickoryAvenueHomeAmbulatory 9026 10 6.8 362:20 St.Mark'sManorAmbulatory9029103.3111:55Trotter'sBluffAmbulatory9026107.4121:55CreekwayHomeAmbulatory9026100.4162:00Evans WalstonHomeAmbulatory902362.5131:50Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderlyAmbulatory90260601.4463:20Wheelchairbound9072141.4632:50HopeHouseAmbulatory902481.7242:05KintonCourtHomeAmbulatory90216101.7332:15LifeSkillsIndependentCare#1Ambulatory902480.8111:50Mim'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory902245.1462:20WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacilityAmbulatory902001.9282:00Wheelchairbound90720281.9252:25Bedridden 90151530 1.9 252:25 WindsorPointContinuingCareAmbulatory902140601.3132:45Wheelchairbound9071001051.333:20Bedridden 90153530 1.3 192:20MaximumETE:3:20AverageETE:2:15Notes:1-RefertoTable8 4.Somefacilitiesuseminivansandpassengercarstoevacuate.Loadingtimesarelessforthesevehiclesthanforbuses HarrisNuclearPlant8 46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table815.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)SanfordHealth&RehabAmbulatory100241601.932:45Wheelchairbound1007691051.933:30Bedridden1001527301.932:15Brown'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory10026123.352:00JamesRestHomeAmbulatory100228563.352:45Wheelchairbound100710283.352:15MurchisonResidentialCorpHomeAmbulatory1002369.7222:10AzaleaGardensMentalHealthAmbulatory10026102.131:55BrookridgeAssistedLivingAmbulatory100240603.652:45Wheelchairbound100712283.652:15FavourHomeAmbulatory1002684.672:00KingsGroupHomeforChildrenAmbulatory1002484.6322:20LockleyRoadHomeAmbulatory10026101.752:00MasonStreetGroupHomeAmbulatory10026102.131:55OliveHomeAmbulatory10026102.131:55RexRehab&NursingCenterofApexAmbulatory100220402.642:25Wheelchairbound1007401052.643:30Bedridden1001530302.642:15SeagravesFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1002483.5392:30ShackletonHomeAmbulatory1002363.041:50SpringArborofApexAmbulatory100247602.9112:55Wheelchairbound100719282.962:30 HarrisNuclearPlant8 47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)WakeMedApexHealthplexAmbulatory10027142.9202:15Wheelchairbound10074282.9152:25Bedridden100151152.9202:15AventFerryHomeAmbulatory10026107.4112:05BassLakeHomeAmbulatory1002684.1382:30CountryLaneGroupHomeAmbulatory10026107.4112:05HerbertReidHomeAmbulatory10025103.392:00HickoryAvenueHomeAmbulatory10026106.8342:25St.Mark'sManorAmbulatory10029103.362:00Trotter'sBluffAmbulatory10026107.4112:05CreekwayHomeAmbulatory10026100.4152:05Evans WalstonHomeAmbulatory1002362.5142:00Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderlyAmbulatory100260601.4583:40Wheelchairbound10072141.4602:55HopeHouseAmbulatory1002481.7252:15KintonCourtHomeAmbulatory100216101.7352:30LifeSkillsIndependentCare#1Ambulatory1002480.8122:00Mim'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1002245.1622:50WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacilityWheelchairbound100720281.9122:50Bedridden1001515301.9392:50WindsorPointContinuingCareAmbulatory1002140601.3193:00Wheelchairbound10071001051.393:35Bedridden1001535301.3192:30MaximumETE:3:40AverageETE:2:30Notes:1-RefertoTable8 4.Somefacilitiesuseminivansandpassengercarstoevacuate.Loadingtimesarelessforthesevehiclesthanforbuses HarrisNuclearPlant8 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table816.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)Loading Rate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)SanfordHealth&RehabAmbulatory110241601.932:55Wheelchairbound1107691051.933:40Bedridden1101527301.932:25Brown'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory11026123.352:10JamesRestHomeAmbulatory110228563.352:55Wheelchairbound110710283.352:25MurchisonResidentialCorpHomeAmbulatory1102369.7262:25AzaleaGardensMentalHealthAmbulatory11026102.142:05BrookridgeAssistedLivingAmbulatory110240603.663:00Wheelchairbound110712283.662:25FavourHomeAmbulatory1102684.682:10KingsGroupHomeforChildrenAmbulatory1102484.6342:35LockleyRoadHomeAmbulatory11026101.7102:10MasonStreetGroupHomeAmbulatory1102662.142:05OliveHomeAmbulatory11026102.142:05RexRehab&NursingCenterofApexAmbulatory110220402.642:35Wheelchairbound1107401052.643:40Bedridden1101530302.642:25SeagravesFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1102483.5312:30ShackletonHomeAmbulatory1102363.052:05SpringArborofApexAmbulatory110247602.9113:05Wheelchairbound110719282.962:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)Loading Rate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)WakeMedApexHealthplexAmbulatory11027142.9242:30Wheelchairbound11074282.9202:40Bedridden110151152.9242:30AventFerryHomeAmbulatory11026107.4122:15BassLakeHomeAmbulatory1102684.1422:45CountryLaneGroupHomeAmbulatory11026107.4122:15HerbertReidHomeAmbulatory11025103.3142:15HickoryAvenueHomeAmbulatory11026106.8332:35St.Mark'sManorAmbulatory11029103.3102:15Trotter'sBluffAmbulatory11026107.4122:15CreekwayHomeAmbulatory11026100.4182:20Evans WalstonHomeAmbulatory1102362.5162:15Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderlyAmbulatory110260601.4643:55Wheelchairbound11072141.4653:10HopeHouseAmbulatory1102481.7252:25KintonCourtHomeAmbulatory110216101.7472:50LifeSkillsIndependentCare#1Ambulatory1102480.8122:10Mim'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1102245.1953:30WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacilityWheelchairbound110720281.9583:20Bedridden1101515301.9583:20WindsorPointContinuingCareAmbulatory1102140601.3223:15Wheelchairbound11071001051.3183:55Bedridden1101535301.3232:45MaximumETE:3:55AverageETE:2:40Notes:1-RefertoTable8 4.Somefacilitiesuseminivansandpassengercarstoevacuate.Loadingtimesarelessforthesevehiclesthanforbuses HarrisNuclearPlant8 50KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table817.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimatesVehicleTypePeopleRequiringVehicleVehiclesdeployedStopsWeatherConditionsMobiliza tionTime(min)LoadingTimeat1 stStop(min)TraveltoSubsequentStops(min)TotalLoadingTimeatSubsequentStops(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)Buses75108Good9056335123:25Rain10070153:45Ice11077184:05WheelchairVans1954Good9072721122:40Rain10030152:55Ice11033183:10Ambulances952Good90151015122:25Rain10011152:40Ice11013172:50MaximumETE:4:05AverageETE:3:10 HarrisNuclearPlant9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).* TheManualofUnifor mTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.providesguidanceforTrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.AllstateandmostcountytransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisavailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. FacilitateevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Theterms"facilitate"and"discourage"areemployedratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forex ample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandSRBsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR 7002.2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.Thisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionstha texperiencepronouncedcongestion.AnycriticalintersectionsthatarenotidentifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandSRBs3. Afieldsurveyofthehighwaynetworkwithin15milesofthepowerplant.Theschematicsdescribingtrafficandaccesscontrolatsuggeste dadditionalTCPsandSRBs,whicharepresentedinAppendixG,arebasedondatacollectedduringfieldsurveys,uponlargescalemaps,andonoverheadphotos.4. Consultationwithemergencymanagementandlawenforcementpersonnel.Trainedpersonnelwhoareexperiencedincontrollingtrafficandareawareofthelik elyevacuationtrafficpatternshavereviewedthecontroltacticsatthesuggestedadditionalTCPsandSRBs.5. PrioritizationofTCPsandSRBs.ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandSRBswillhaveamorepronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmovementsthanatotherTCPsandSRBs.Forexampl e,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromthepowerplant.Theseprioritieshavebeenreviewedandapprovedbystate/countyemergencymanagementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.Basedonthecomputeranalysis,rev isionstothreeTCPs,additionofsixnewTCPs,andadditionofonenewSRBarerecommended-seeAppendixG.ThecontroltacticsidentifiedintheschematicsinAppendixGhavebeenreviewedandapprovedbythestateandcountyemergencyplanners,an dlocalandstatelawenforcement.AsdiscussedinSection7.5,theroadwayimpactscenarioresultedinatmosta10 minuteincreaseinETE.ThisisnotasignificantchangeinETE.Thus,notrafficmanagementtacticsarenecessarytomitigatetheimpactsofapotentialroadwayclosurealongUS 1northboundorUS 64eastbound.TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"externalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter30minuteshaveelapsedfromtheATE.AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningSRBsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussSRBandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromaSub ZonebeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsu chawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1mapsthegeneralpopulationrecept ioncentersandrelocationschoolsforevacuees.ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 2.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriaterelocationschoolandsubsequentlybepickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transit dependentevacueesaretransportedtothenearestreceptioncenterforeachcounty.Thisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlant10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandRelocationSchools HarrisNuclearPlant10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.EvacuationRoutes APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms HarrisNuclearPlantA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection. | |||
APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel HarrisNuclearPlantB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost".OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel HarrisNuclearPlantB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a= | |||
ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepres entsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantB 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges? | |||
Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel HarrisNuclearPlantC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics HarrisNuclearPlantC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network HarrisNuclearPlantC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks HarrisNuclearPlantC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 80078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx HarrisNuclearPlantC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams HarrisNuclearPlantC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp HarrisNuclearPlantC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelength ofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,. | |||
Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain: | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm HarrisNuclearPlantC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes HarrisNuclearPlantC 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB. | |||
APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure HarrisNuclearPlantD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.Dataforemployees,transients,schools,andotherfacilitieswereobtainedfromthecountyemergencymanagementdepartments.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateandlocalemergencymanagers,on siteandoff siteutilityemergencymanagers,localandstatelawenforcementagencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specificrequestsforinformationwerepres entedtocountyemergencymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredtoperformpre evacuationmobilizationactivities. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto14sub zones.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofsub zones)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperien cetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputstreammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thentheprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroutespecificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentandspecialf acilitypopulationgroups.Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXEFacilityData HarrisNuclearPlantE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. FACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofAugust2012,forspecialfacilities,transientattractionsandmajoremployersthatarelocatedwithintheHNPEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,childcarecenters,hospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforcampgrounds,parksandcommunitycenters,golfcoursesan dlodgingfacilities.Employmentdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Eachtableisgroupedbycounty.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,childcarecent er,medicalfacility,majoremployer,campground,parkandcommunitycenter,golfcourseandlodgingfacilityarealsoprovided. | |||
HarrisNuclearPlantE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffCHATHAMCOUNTYM6.8WMoncureElementarySchool600MoncureSchoolRdMoncure(919)5423725285 45ChathamCountySubtotals:28545HARNETTCOUNTYS.R.112.5SELafayetteElementarySchool108LafayetteSchoolFuquay Varina(919)5524353780 80 HarnettCountySubtotals:78080LEECOUNTYS.R.111.1WSWDeepRiverElementarySchool4000DeepRiverRdSanford(919)7762722638100 LeeCountySubtotals:638100WAKECOUNTYE9.2NEA.V.BaucomElementarySchool400HunterSt Apex(919)3872168962100 E8.3NEApexElementarySchool700TingenRd Apex(919)3872150670 83 E8.8NEApexMiddleSchool400EMooreSt Apex(919)38721811,086150 E10.1NEApexSeniorHighSchool 21501LauraDuncanRdApex(919)38722082,300200 E9.3NELufkinRoadMiddleSchool1002LufkinRd Apex(919)38744651,010100 E7.8NNEOliveChapelElementarySchool1751OliveChapelRdApex(919)3874440933130 E7.7NESt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool625MagdalaPl Apex(919)6574800704 65 E9.6NEThalesAcademy1177AmbergateSt Apex(919)3033108319 30 F5.9EHollyGroveElementarySchool1451AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)5771700980115 F6.1EHollyGroveMiddleSchool1401AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)56741771,136100 F8.0EHollyRidgeElementarySchool900HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)5771300724 80 F8.0EHollyRidgeMiddleSchool950HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)55726601,033100 F7.4EHollySpringsElementarySchool401HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)55726601,121126 F6.0EHollySpringsHighSchool5329CassHoltRd HollySprings(919)46386062,108150 F9.6ENewSchool,Inc.Montessori5617SunsetLakeRdHollySprings(919)3033636180 35 G9.7ESEFuquay VarinaMiddleSchool109NEnnisStFuquay Varina(919)5572727903 98 G9.2ESEFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool201BengalDrFuquay Varina(919)55725111,925150 G8.7EHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool2255HerbertAkinsRdFuquay Varina(919)5674100867 98 G8.8ESELincolnHeightsElementarySchool307BridgeStFuquay Varina(919)5572587474 95 G7.8ESouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool5108OldPowellRd HollySprings(919)5679955119 15WakeCountySubtotals:19,5542,020TOTAL:21,2572,245 HarrisNuclearPlantE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.ChildCareCenterswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffWAKECOUNTYE9.9ENEAllAboutKids3901KildaireFarmRdCary(919)303776712530E8.9NEApexBaptistChurchPreschool110SouthSalemStApex(919)362617617424E9.4NEApexChildCarewithDebbie102BeechHollowPl Apex(919)363991152 E8.9NEApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100S.HughesStApex(919)36278077825E9.5ENEEarthAngel'sDayCareHome2909EarthDrApex(919)362516681E9.0NEEdithFranklinDayCareHome501EChathamStApex(919)362775351E8.7ENEGoddardSchoolApex903OliveChapelRdApex(919)362399912026E10.1ENEGraceChurchPreschool 23725KildareFarmRdApex(919)36293558213E8.7NEGrowingYearsLearningCenter470WestWilliamsStApex(919)387818910014E10.2NEHopeChapelPreschool 26175OldJenksRdApex(919)38781897515E10.0NEJudy'sHomeCare1300LauraDuncanRdApex(919)362519151E7.9ENEKarin' 4 Kidz201RidgeLakeRdApex(919)387285182E10.3NELori'sFamilyDayCare 22610HaventreeCtApex(919)387141921E9.7NEMoravicFamilyDayCare1814MistyHollowLnApex(919)367757951E8.7NNEPlayCare1422FairfaxWoodsDrApex(919)303931561E8.8NEVickie'sDayCareHome410EChathamStApex(919)362770251E9.7ENEWoodhavenBaptistPre school4000KildareFarmRdApex(919)362390910215F8.3ENEHollySpringsLearningCenter1180HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)577611915930F7.5ENEHollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation101ArborCreekDrHollySprings(919)30390098823F6.2EHomeAwayFromHomeChildcare416ClineFallsDrHollySprings(919)538272551F7.5ENEKiddieAcademyofHollySprings150RosewoodCentreDrHollySprings(919)367008814525F7.3ENEKris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare420CaymanAveHollySprings(919)552400251F7.5ENELittleDreamersPreschool114HyannisDrHollySprings(919)303343411110F7.3ESisters'ChildCareServices400EarpStHollySprings(919)5529624204F9.7ENEStellaLowerySmallDayCareHome102OaklandDrApex(919)362131351 HarrisNuclearPlantE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffF9.3ENESunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool5420SunsetLakeRdHollySprings(919)30337206616F8.0ENETheCarolinaSchool10308HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)55755055010G9.3EAMother'sLove524DogwoodCreekPlFuquay Varina(919)552544851G9.1ESEChildcareNetwork-Fuquay Varina350W.JonesStFuquay Varina(919)557121911319G9.6ESEFuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare301NWoodrowStFuquay Varina(919)55295869823G9.7ESEFuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith100SJuddPkwySEFuquay Varina(919)557156818027G9.3ESEGingerbreadLittleversity Downtown211RailroadStFuquay Varina(919)55247239916G9.6ESELittleAngelsPreparatory724SMainStFuquay Varina(919)55255755010G10.2ESELittleMiracles 2428BarnViewCtFuquay Varina(919)557127241G9.0ESEReadyOrNotHereIGrow201PowhatanDrFuquay Varina(919)55233329215G9.0ESEShiningStarChildCareHome516NatureWalkRdFuquay Varina(919)567073851G8.3ESouthWakePreschool&Academy2275NGrasslandDrFuquay Varina(919)5771144377G9.8ESpinningWheelsLearningCenter6225SunsetLakeRdFuquay Varina(919)3427009247G9.0ESEVanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome829AlderleafDrFuquay Varina(919)552098271WakeCountySubtotals:2,263419TOTAL:2,273422Notes1S.R.isShadowRegion.CountyplansevacuatethesetwofacilitiesduetotheircloseproximitytotheEPZboundary2Facilityislocatedgreaterthan10milesfromtheHNP,however,stillresideswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCap acityCurrentCensusAmbul atoryPatientsWheelchairPatientsBedriddenPatientsLEECOUNTYJ10.4WSWSanfordHealth&Rehab 22702FarrellRdSanford(919)7769602137137416927LeeCountySubtotals:137137416927WAKECOUNTYA2.4NEBrown'sFamilyCareHome8416JamesRestHomeRdNewHill(919)362668666600A2.3NEJamesRestHome8420JamesRestHomeRdNewHill(919)3628856403828100C4.7EMurchisonResidentialCorpHome533TexannaWayHollySprings(919)557671233300E9.1NEAzaleaGardensMentalHealth413CulvertStApex(919)387139166600E8.4NEBrookridgeAssistedLiving312LynchStApex(919)3626266555240120E8.0ENEFavourHome202LindellDriveApex(919)362835366600E7.6NNEKingsGroupHomeforChildren109EveningStarDrApex(919)303500244400E9.2ENELockleyRoadHome4617LockleyRdHollySprings(919)303566566600E9.1NEMasonStreetGroupHome306N.MasonStApex(919)387588166600E9.0NEOliveHome707OliveStApex(919)387708066600E8.4NERexRehab&NursingCenterofApex911S.HughesStApex(919)363601110790204030E7.4NESeagravesFamilyCareHome1052IrongateDrApex(919)362855664400E8.0NEShackletonHome1105ShackletonRdApex(919)267575933300E8.7NESpringArborofApex901SpringArborCtApex(919)3039990766647190 HarrisNuclearPlantE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCap acityCurrentCensusAmbul atoryPatientsWheelchairPatientsBedriddenPatientsE8.7NEWakeMedApexHealthplex 1120HealthplexWayApex(919)38702281212741F6.5EAventFerryHome904AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)557633666600F7.8EBassLakeHome408BassLakeRdHollySprings(919)557384466600F6.6ECountryLaneGroupHome534CountryLnHollySprings(919)552545766600F8.5ENEHerbertReidHome3733HeritageMeadowsLnHollySprings(919)363531155500F7.0EHickoryAvenueHome112HickoryAveHollySprings(919)5525407666F8.6ENESt.Mark'sManor3735HeritageMeadowsLnHollySprings(919)363531199900F6.5ETrotter'sBluff912AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)557633766600G10.2ESECreekwayHome 2424CreekwayDrFuquay Varina(919)552435966600G9.5EEvans WalstonHome808HawksViewCtFuquay Varina(919)552131233300G9.8ESEFuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly1012SMainStFuquay Varina(919)552367180626020G9.8EHopeHouse821BrookhannahCtFuquay Varina(919)557437144400G9.4ESEKintonCourtHome301SunsetDrFuquay Varina(919)55769671616 1600 G9.9ESELifeSkillsIndependentCare#1800PerryHowardRdFuquay Varina(919)577002144400G6.9SEMim'sFamilyCareHome6337MimsRdHollySprings(919)552645562200G9.4ESEWakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility400RansomStFuquay Varina(919)3504600363502015G9.0ESEWindsorPointContinuingCare1221BroadStFuquay Varina(919)552458030027514010035WakeCountySubtotals:84175947120781TOTAL:978896512276108Notes1Thisfacilityisastand aloneEmergencyDepartmentwithaconstantlychangingbreakdownofpatients.Theaveragepercentagebreakdownofambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpatientsforallothermedicalfacilitieswasappliedforthisfacility.2Facilityislocatedgreaterthan10milesfromtheHNP,however,stillresideswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)LEECOUNTY J10.4WSWSanfordHealth&Rehab 1,2,32702FarrellRdSanford(919)776960211052%57LeeCountySubtotals:11057CHATHAMCOUNTY K5.5WSWArclin790CorinthRdMoncure(919)5422526 2375%17 K6.1SWGeneralShaleBrickCompany300BrickPlantRdMoncure(919)7746533 4550%23 K5.6WSWMoncurePlywood306CorinthRdMoncure(919)5422311 9095%86 K5.1WPerformanceFibers338PeaRidgeRd NewHill(919)542220018060%108 K2.9WTriangleBrickCompany294KingRdMoncure(919)2265622 5025%13 L7.2NBuildersFirstSource 23RedCedarWay Apex(919)3634956 9050%45ChathamCountySubtotals:478292 WAKECOUNTY A1.8NWDomtarPaperCompany7634OldUSHwy1NewHill(919)36796963050%15A2.2NEHarrisE&ECenter3932NewHillHollemanRdNewHill(919)362326110063%63A0.0HarrisNuclearPlant5421ShearonHarrisRdNewHill(919)363056070063%441E9.2NEA.V.BaucomElementarySchool 1400HunterStApex(919)387216810052%52E8.3NEApexElementarySchool 1700TingenRdApex(919)38721508352%43E8.8NEApexMiddleSchool 1400EMooreStApex(919)387218115052%78E8.8NEApexPublicWorks105UpchurchStApex(919)36281664950%25E10.1NEApexSeniorHighSchool 1,31501LauraDuncanRdApex(919)387220820052%104E8.8NEApexToolGroup(CooperHandTools)1000LufkinRdApex(919)818585118050%90E9.3NEApexTownHall73HunterSt Apex(919)2493400 7250%36 E8.9NNECarrabba'sItalianGrill1201HaddonHallDr Apex(919)3876336 3050%15 E9.0NNEChili'sGrill&Bar1120BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)38777013250%16E7.6ENEEMCCorp5800TechnologyDr Apex(919)362480040850%204 E9.4NEFoodLion620LauraDuncanRd Apex(919)3623904 3650%18 E8.9NEHarrisTeeter(Apex#58)750WWilliamsSt Apex(919)3623782 6250%31 E9.0NNEHomeDepotApex1000VisionDrApex(919)38765544050%20E8.9NNEKohl's1301BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)38774997250%36 HarrisNuclearPlantE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)E8.7NELowe'sFoods(Apex#184)5400ApexPeakway Apex(919)3635376 7550%38 E8.9NNELowe'sHomeImprovement1101BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)30342006050%30E9.3NELufkinRoadMiddleSchool 11002LufkinRdApex(919)387446510052%52E7.8NNEOliveChapelElementarySchool 11751OliveChapelRdApex(919)387444013052%68E8.6NEPottersIndustries,Inc.820LufkinRd Apex(919)3627574 6050%30 E8.8NNERedRobinGourmetBurgers1431BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)36385993050%15E8.4NERexRehab&NursingCenterofApex 1911S.HughesSt.AApex(919)36360112252%11E7.7NESt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool 1625MagdalaPlApex(919)65748006552%34E8.8NNETarget1201BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)372140518650%93E9.4NETipperTieInc.2000LufkinRdApex(919)36288117550%38E8.7NEWakemedApexHealthplex120HealthplexWayApex(919)35009895050%25E7.7NEWalmart(Apex#3889)3151ApexPeakwayApex(919)36237375250%26F9.4NEFoodLion517NorthMainStHollySprings(919)55711753350%17F9.3ENEHarrisTeeter(HollySprings#118)5277SunsetLakeRdHollySprings(919)36330597250%36F6.6EHarrisTeeter(HollySprings#311)324VillageWalkDrHollySprings(919)55215965750%29F5.9EHollyGroveElementarySchool 11451AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)577170011552%60F6.1EHollyGroveMiddleSchool 11401AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)567417710052%52F8.0EHollyRidgeElementarySchool 1900HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)57713008052%42F8.0EHollyRidgeMiddleSchool 1950HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)557266010052%52F7.4EHollySpringsElementarySchool 1401HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)557266012652%66F6.0EHollySpringsHighSchool 15329CassHoltRdHollySprings(919)463860615052%78F7.0EHollySpringsTownHall128SouthMainStHollySprings(919)557390310550%53F5.8ENEIdealLandscaping131TraditionTrailHollySprings(919)56733256050%30 HarrisNuclearPlantE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)F7.4ELowe'sFood(HollySprings#207)550HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)57769716350%32F5.1ENENovartis475GreenOaksPkwyHollySprings(919)577500030050%150F6.7ERexExpressCareofHollySprings781AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)56761205550%28F6.9EWalmart(HollySprings#4458)7016GBAlfordHwyHollySprings(919)55791815250%26F6.1ENEWarpTechnologiesInc.601IrvingPkwyHollySprings(919)55223117550%38G8.5EBerk Tek(NexanCompany)100TechnologyParkLnFuquay Varina(919)57720235450%27G9.4ESEBobBarkerCompany134NorthMainStFuquay Varina(919)552989519050%95G9.4ESEFidelityBank100NMainStFuquay Varina(919)55222427050%35G9.7ESEFuquay VarinaMiddleSchool 1109NEnnisStFuquay Varina(919)55727279852%51G9.2ESEFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool 1201BengalDrFuquay Varina(919)557251115052%78G8.7EHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool 12255HerbertAkinsRdFuquay Varina(919)56741009852%51G10.0ESEHomeDepot-Fuquay Varina901EastBroadStFuquay Varina(919)55228815250%26G10.5ESEKrogerBakery 31371EastBroadStFuquay Varina(919)56774236550%33G8.8ESELincolnHeightsElementarySchool 1307BridgeStFuquay Varina(919)55725879552%49G9.4ESEWakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility 1,2400RansomSt.Fuquay Varina(919)35046005652%29G10.2ESEWalmart(FuquayVarina#2836)31051EastBroadStFuquay Varina(919)56723505050%25G9.0ESEWindsorPointContinuingCare 1,21221BroadStFuquay Varina(919)552458016052%83WakeCountySubtotals:5,9303,118TOTAL:6,5183,467Notes1Anaverageof52%nonEPZemployees(baseduponthosefacilitieswhichdidprovidedetaileddata)wasappliedtothosefacilitieswhichdidnotprovidedetaileddata2Numberofem p lo y eesdurin gmaxshiftwasassumedtobethetotalnumberofem p lo y eesforthosefacilitieswhichdidnotp rovidedetaileddata3Facilityislocatedgreaterthan10milesfromtheHNP,however,stillresideswithintheEPZAllemployershavemorethan50totalemployees,despitesomehavingamaximumshiftlessthan50 HarrisNuclearPlantE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 5.CampgroundswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesCHATHAMCOUNTYK5.0SWDickensRVPark2501CorinthRdMoncure(919)7088207216108L6.2WNWNewHopeOverlookCampground(JordanLake)HiddenFieldLnNCStateParks(919)362085633884L6.7NNWPoplarPointCampground(JordanLake)558BeaverCreekRdNCStateParks(919)36208561,302543M6.9WCotten'sRVCampground390CottenAcresMoncure(919)54826442525M6.9WJordanDamRVPark&Campground284MoncureSchoolRdMoncure(919)77068904444M7.3NWVistaPointCampground(JordanLake)NPeaRidgeRdNCStateParks(919)3620856420105N7.9NNWCrosswindsCampgroundandMarina(JordanLake)389FarringtonRdNCStateParks(919)3620856965241N8.9NNWParker'sCreekCampground(JordanLake)BigWoodsRdNCStateParks(919)3620586750188ChathamCountySubtotals:4,0601,338TOTAL:4,0601,338 HarrisNuclearPlantE 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 6.ParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesCHATHAMCOUNTYK4.2SSWHarrisLakeBoatLaunch(ChathamCounty)384CrossPointRdNewHill(919)7070010224102L6.3NWEbenezerChurchRecreationArea(JordanLake)EbenezerRdNCStateParks(919)36205861,127282M7.3WPoe'sRidgeRecreationArea(JordanLake)1MoncureSchoolRdU.S.ArmyCorpsofEng(919)54245019462M9.6NWRobesonCreekRecreationArea(JordanLake)HanksChapelRdNCStateParks(919)362058638997M7.7NWSeaforthRecreationArea(JordanLake)U.S.Highway64NCStateParks(919)36208561,334334N8.0NNWWhiteOakRecreationArea(JordanLake)U.S.Highway64NCStateParks(919)362085639398ChathamCountySubtotals:3,561975HARNETTCOUNTYH11.0SRavenRockStatePark2309RavenRockRoadLillington(910)89348888052HarnettCountySubtotals:8052WAKECOUNTYA2.0EHarrisLakeCountyPark2112CountyParkDrNewHill(919)3874342401182B5.1NNEGoldstarSoccerComplex2513OldUSHwy1Apex(919)7863056289131D2.0SSEHarrisLakeBoatLaunch4420BartleyHollemanRdNewHill(919)7070010224102E5.6NAmericanTobaccoTrail1309NewHill OliveChapelRdApex(919)3872117498226E9.3NEApexCommunityCenter53HunterStApex(919)24934022612E8.2NEApexElementarySchoolPark700TingenRdApex(919)856617063E9.1NEClaremontPark801EastChathamStApex(919)249340221E9.1NEHalleCulturalArtsCenter237NSalemStApex(919)24911203215E8.5NEJayceePark451NCHwy55Apex(919)2493402136E7.5NNEKellyGlenPark1701KellyGlenDrApex(919)249340221E7.6NNEKellyRoadPark1609KellyRdApex(919)2493402167E8.5NESueHeltonParkMatneyLnApex(919)249340221 HarrisNuclearPlantE 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesE8.5NEWestStreetPark108WestStApex(919)249340221F8.6EBassLakePark&RetreatCenter900BassLakeRdHollySprings(919)5572496104F6.8EHollySpringsLibrary&CulturalCenter300WBallentineStHollySprings(919)55796003215F7.3ENEJonesMemorialPark405SchoolDaysLnHollySprings(919)557960063F7.3EParrishWomblePark1201GrigsbyAveHollySprings(919)5579600240109F7.5ENEVeteransPark600BikramDrHollySprings(919)557960021F7.2EW.E.HuntCommunityCenter&Gym301StinsonAveHollySprings(919)55796003515G9.2ESEActionPark609WakeChapelRdFuquay Varina(919)5521400296135G9.6ESECarrollHowardJohnsonEEPark301WagstaffRdFuquay Varina(919)5521400115G9.9ESEFalconPark611EAcademyStFuquay Varina(919)55214003215G8.6ESEFlemingLoopSoccerComplex301FlemingLoopRdFuquay Varina(919)55214003215G9.5ESEFuquayMineralSpringPark105SpringStFuquay Varina(919)552140021G8.6EHerbertAkinsSchoolPark2255HerbertAkinsRdFuquay Varina(919)552140094G9.5ESEKintonSoccerField300WRansomStFuquay Varina(919)5521400167G9.0ESELawrenceStreetPark215LawrenceStFuquay Varina(919)552140084G9.6ESELibraryPark116SouthAikenStFuquay Varina(919)552140062G8.9ESEPineAcresCommunityCenter&Park402McleanStFuquay Varina(919)552140042G9.6ESESouthPark900SMainStFuquay Varina(919)5521400401182WakeCountySubtotals:2,6551,207TOTAL:6,2962,234Notes1DataobtainedfromRevision4of2007COLA2OnlyaportionoftheParkresidesintheEPZ,however,theentirefacilityevacuatesasaprecautionarymeasure HarrisNuclearPlantE 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 7.GolfCourseswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesWAKECOUNTYC5.1ENE12Oaks1001GreenOaksPkwyHollySprings91928536807030E9.8NEKnightsPlayGolfCenter2512Ten TenRdApex9193034653288200F8.6EDevilsRidgeGolfClub5107LinkslandDrHollySprings9193463631262180WakeCountySubtotals:620410TOTAL:620410TableE 8.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesWAKECOUNTYE8.5NEAmerica'sBestValueInn1400EWilliamsStApex(919)36286216052E8.8NNEB&BCountryGardenInn1041KellyRdApex(919)303800342E8.3NECandlewoodSuites1005MarcoDrApex(919)38785957666E8.6NEComfortInnApex1411EWilliamsStApex(919)38746006456E8.6NEHolidayInnExpress1006MarcoDrApex(919)38736362623E8.8NEValuePlaceHotel901LufkinRoadApex(919)387463611399F6.7EHamptonInn&SuitesHollySprings1516RalphStephensRdHollySprings(919)5527610116101G9.5ESEFuquayMineralSpringInnandGardenB&B333SouthMainStFuquay Varina(919)552378242G9.8ESEChateauBellevie1605SouthMainStFuquay Varina(919)622612831WakeCountySubtotals:466402TOTAL:466402 HarrisNuclearPlantE 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.OverviewofChildCareCenterswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 3.ChildCareCenterswithinSubZoneE HarrisNuclearPlantE 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.ChildCareCenterswithinSubZonesFandG HarrisNuclearPlantE 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 5.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 6.OverviewofMajorEmployerswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 7.MajorEmployerswithinSubZoneE HarrisNuclearPlantE 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 8.MajorEmployerswithinSubZonesFandG HarrisNuclearPlantE 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 9.CampgroundswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE10.OverviewofParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE11.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSubZoneE HarrisNuclearPlantE 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE12.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSubZonesFandG HarrisNuclearPlantE 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE13.GolfCourseswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE14.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ}} | |||
Revision as of 17:36, 1 August 2018
| ML12355A202 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Harris  |
| Issue date: | 12/18/2012 |
| From: | Corlett D H Duke Energy Carolinas |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Document Control Desk |
| References | |
| HNP-12-139 | |
| Download: ML12355A202 (277) | |
Text
.. Duke {-Energy December 1 8, 20 1 2 Serial: HNP-12-139 ATTN: Document C ontro l De s k U.S. Nuclear R e gu l atory Co mm i ss ion Washington , DC 20555-000 1 Sh ea r o n Harris Nuclear P o wer Plant , Unit 1 Dock e t No. 50-400
Subject:
Evacuation Time Es timate s Ana l ysis L a die s and Gent l emen: Oavld H. Corlett Superv i s o r , Ucenslng{Regu lat o r y Pr og ram s Harris Nu c l ear Pla nt S413 Harr i s Rd N ew H ill N C 27562-9300 9 1 9-362-313? 1 0 CF R 50.4 10 C FR 50.47(b)(l0) 10 CF R 50, Appendix E Carolina Power & Li g ht Co mpany i s submitting an updat e d evacuation time es timate (ETE) ana l ysis for the Harri s Nuclear Plant. The r ev ised E TE anal ys i s i s be i ng submitted in accor dance w i th I 0 CFR 50.47(b)(l
- 0) and 10 CFR 50 , App e ndi x E,Section IV , pa rag r a ph 4. The e nclosu re to thi s l etter provide s the E T E ana l y s i s report. This s ubmittal contains no re g ulatory commitments.
P l ease refer an y question s r ega rdin g this s u bmitta l to me at (9 1 9) 362-3137. Sincerely , DHC/mgw E nc l osure: Evacuation Time Es timate s Ana l ysis cc: Mr. J.D. Au sti n , NRC Sr. R es ident I nspector , HNP Ms. A T. Billoch Co lon, NRC Project Manager , HNP Mr. V. M. Mc C ree , NR C Regi o n a l Administrator , Region II Document Control Desk Serial: HNP 139 Enclosure Shearon Harris Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 1 Docket No. 50
-400 Evacuation Time Estimates Analysis KLD Engineering Report KLD TR
-506, Harris Nuclear Plant Development of Evacuation Time Estimates (565 pages plus cover)
December2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-506 HarrisNuclearPlantDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforDukeEnergy,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com SIGNATURE LIST ________ __J/ l d.-)3 Duke Energy Date Project Lead, Eme r gency Pr epa r edness A !f-JrJI-' A _-------__ __,/ 12-. I 2. l tl-K LD Enginee ring , P.C.-Sento r Project Manager Harr is Nucl ea r Pl ant Eva cua tion Ti me Es timat e tz./zlc?-Date KLD Eng i neering, P.C. Rev. 1 HarrisNuclearPlantiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 21.2TheHarrisNuclearPlantLocation..............................................................................................1 41.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 61.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy............................................................................................1 102STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 73 93.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 103.4Employees...............................................................................................................................
.3 153.5MedicalFacilities......................................................................................................................3 193.6TotalDemandinAddi tiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 193.7SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 193.8SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 224ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtotheHNPStudyArea............................................................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Freeways............................................................................................................................4 74.3.4Intersections......................................................................................................................4 84.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 85ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background...............................................................................................................................
.5 15.2FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 115.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 125.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 155.4.3TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................5 166DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 17.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................7 17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 1 HarrisNuclearPlantiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 27.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 47.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 47.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 67.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 78TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 48.3MedicalFacilityDemand............................................................................................................8 48.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................8 58.5SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................8 119TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUAT IONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 1ListofAppendicesA.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 13C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 13C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 13C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C 16D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.FACILITYDATA....................................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.3SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F 3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F 3F.3.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F 8F.3.3TimeDistributionResults.....................................................................................................F 10F.4Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 12G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1G.2Securi tyRoadBlocks.................................................................................................................G 2HEVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1 HarrisNuclearPlantiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.SUB ZONEBOUNDARIES....................................................................................................................L 1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3M.4Effectof50%ReductioninCapacityandFreeFlowSpeedforIceScenarios..........................M 5M.5EffectofAdditionalConstructionEmployeesatPeakConstructionYearof2022..................M 5N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentio nallyskipped HarrisNuclearPlantivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofFiguresFigure1 1.HNPLocation...........................................................................................................................1 5Figure1 2.HNPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................1 8Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.HNPEPZ..................................................................................................................................3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 5Figure3 3.PermanentRe sidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 6Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 8Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector.....................................................................................................3 9Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 13Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 14Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 17Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 18Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams..........................................................................................................4 10Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 10Figure5 3.ComparisonofDa taDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................5 13Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 19Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUn stagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion...................................................................................................................................5 21Figure6 1.HNPEPZSubZones.................................................................................................................6 7Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................7 17Figure7 2.HNPShadowRegion.............................................................................................................7 18Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................7 19Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 20Figure7 5.CongestionPa tternsat1Hour30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.........................7 21Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2Hours30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.......................7 22Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat3Hours25MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.......................7 23Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 24Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03......................................................7 25Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 11.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 15.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 16.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................7 29Figure7 18.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................7 29Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................7 30Figure7 20.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................7 30Figure7 21.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03..................................................7 31Figure7 22.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario14forRegionR03..................................................7 31Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................8 13Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes.............................................................................................8 14Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandRelocationSchools........................................10 2 HarrisNuclearPlantvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.EvacuationRoutes..............................................................................................................10 3FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 5FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 7FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 15FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................................E 14FigureE 2.OverviewofChildCareCenterswithintheEPZ....................................................................E 15FigureE 3.ChildCareCenterswithinSub ZoneE..................................................................................E 16FigureE 4.ChildCareCenterswithinSub ZonesFandG.......................................................................E 17FigureE 5.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 18FigureE 6.OverviewofMajorEmployerswithintheEPZ......................................................................E 19FigureE 7.MajorEmployerswithinSub ZoneE.....................................................................................E 20FigureE 8.MajorEmployerswithinSub ZonesFandG.........................................................................E 21FigureE 9.CampgroundswithintheEPZ................................................................................................E 22FigureE 10.OverviewofParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZ...............................................E 23FigureE 11.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSub ZoneE.............................................................E 24FigureE 12.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSub ZonesFandG..................................................E 25FigureE 13.GolfCourseswithintheEPZ................................................................................................E 26FigureE 14.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ.........................................................................................E 27FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 4FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 4FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F 5FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F 6FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 7FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 8FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F 9FigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets...........................................................................................F 9FigureF 10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..............................................................F 11FigureF 11.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F 11FigureF 12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 12FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlocksfortheHNPSite.........................................G 3FigureG 2.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZoneE.....................................G 4FigureG 3.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZonesEandF..........................G 5FigureG 4.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZoneG.....................................G 6FigureG 5.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHighway55&HighHouseRd......................................G 7FigureG 6.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHighway55&WilbonRd............................................G 8FigureG 7.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHi ghway55&USHighway64(West)Ramps..............G 9FigureG 8.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1415&HWY401...............................G 10FigureG 9.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1427&HWY401...............................G 11FigureG 10.Existin gTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1443&HWY401.............................G 12FigureG 11.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&HWY401.............................G 13FigureG 12.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&HWY210.............................G 14FigureG 13.Existin gTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&SR1513...............................G 15FigureG 14.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-HWY210&HWY401&HWY421.......G 16 HarrisNuclearPlantviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 15.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1412&HWY401.............................G 17FigureG 16.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1431&SR1412...............................G 18FigureG 17.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-2529HarnettCentralRd......................G 19FigureG 18.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC 540TOLL&GreenLevelWestRd............................G 20FigureG 19.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-USHWY64&KellyRd...................................................G 21FigureG 20.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC55&NC 540TOLL....................................................G 22FigureG 21.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC 540TOLL&OldUSHWY1.......................................G 23FigureG 22.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-USHWY64&NC540TOLL............................................G 24FigureG 23.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC55BYPASS&NC 540TOLL.......................................G 25FigureG 24.ProposedSecurityRoadBlock-NC55&NC 540TOLL.....................................................G 26FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 4FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 6.RegionR06.............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 7.RegionR07...........................................................................................................................H 10FigureH 8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H 12FigureH 10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H 13FigureH 11.RegionR11.........................................................................................................................H 14FigureH 12.RegionR12.........................................................................................................................H 15FigureH 13.RegionR13.........................................................................................................................H 16FigureH 14.RegionR14.........................................................................................................................H 17FigureH 15.RegionR15.........................................................................................................................H 18FigureH 16.RegionR16.........................................................................................................................H 19FigureH 17.RegionR17.........................................................................................................................H 20FigureH 18.RegionR18.........................................................................................................................H 21FigureH 19.RegionR19.........................................................................................................................H 22FigureH 20.RegionR20.........................................................................................................................H 23FigureH 21.RegionR21.........................................................................................................................H 24FigureH 22.RegionR22.........................................................................................................................H 25FigureH 23.RegionR23.........................................................................................................................H 26FigureH 24.RegionR24.........................................................................................................................H 27FigureH 25.RegionR25.........................................................................................................................H 28FigureH 26.RegionR26.........................................................................................................................H 29FigureH 27.RegionR27.........................................................................................................................H 30FigureH 28.RegionR28.........................................................................................................................H 31FigureH 29.RegionR29.........................................................................................................................H 32FigureH 30.RegionR30.........................................................................................................................H 33FigureH 31.RegionR31.........................................................................................................................H 34FigureH 32.RegionR32.........................................................................................................................H 35FigureH 33.RegionR33.........................................................................................................................H 36FigureH 34.RegionR34.........................................................................................................................H 37FigureH 35.RegionR35.........................................................................................................................H 38FigureH 36.RegionR36.........................................................................................................................H 39FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 9 HarrisNuclearPlantviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 9FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)............J 10FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)............................J 10FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5).............................................................................................................................................J 11FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)..............J 11FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J 12FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)..................................J 12FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)..............J 13FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)...........................J 13FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,We ekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11).............................J 14FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)...........................................................................................................................................J 14FigureJ 13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)............................................................................................................................................J 15FigureJ 14.ETEandTripGeneration:Su mmer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)............................................................................................................................................J 15FigureK 1.HarrisLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork........................................................................................K 2FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K 3FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Gri d2.....................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K 9FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K 10FigureK 10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K 11FigureK 11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K 12FigureK 12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K 13FigureK 13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K 14FigureK 14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K 15FigureK 15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K 16FigureK 16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K 17FigureK 17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K 18FigureK 18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K 19FigureK 19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K 20FigureK 20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K 21FigureK 21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K 22FigureK 22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K 23FigureK 23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K 24FigureK 24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K 25FigureK 25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K 26FigureK 26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25...............................................................................K 27FigureK 27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26...............................................................................K 28FigureK 28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27...............................................................................K 29FigureK 29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28...............................................................................K 30FigureK 30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29...............................................................................K 31 HarrisNuclearPlantviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30...............................................................................K 32FigureK 32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31...............................................................................K 33FigureK 33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32...............................................................................K 34FigureK 34.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33...............................................................................K 35FigureK 35.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34...............................................................................K 36FigureK 36.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35...............................................................................K 37FigureK 37.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36...............................................................................K 38FigureK 38.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37...............................................................................K 39FigureK 39.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38...............................................................................K 40FigureK 40.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39...............................................................................K 41FigureK 41.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40...............................................................................K 42FigureK 42.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid41...............................................................................K 43FigureK 43.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid42...............................................................................K 44FigureK 44.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid43...............................................................................K 45 HarrisNuclearPlantixKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 1Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 6Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons..........................................................................................................1 11Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 7Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySubZone....................................................3 4Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 7Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 12Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 16Table3 6.HNPEPZExternalTraffic.........................................................................................................3 21Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 23Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 24Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.MappingDistri butionstoEvents............................................................................................5 11Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 11Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUn stagedEvacuation....................5 18Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.........................5 20Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRe gions...........................................................................................6 6Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 8Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 9Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario................................................................................................6 10Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.........................7 10Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 12Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 14Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 15Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 16Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................8 15Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................8 16Table8 3.RelocationSchoolsforSchoolsandChildCareCenters.........................................................8 18Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemand............................................................................................8 20Table8 5.Su mmaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 22Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 24Table8 7.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..........................8 28Table8 8.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain..........................................8 31Table8 9.SchoolandChil dCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesIce.............................................8 34Table8 10.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes........................................................................8 37Table8 11.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................8 38Table8 12.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................8 40Table8 13.Tran sitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIce...........................................................8 42Table8 14.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeather.............................................8 44 HarrisNuclearPlantxKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 15.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain..............................................................8 46Table8 16.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesIce.................................................................8 48Table8 17.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates....................................8 50TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 8TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E 2TableE 2.ChildCareCenterswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 3TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 5TableE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 7TableE 5.CampgroundswithintheEPZ.................................................................................................E 10TableE 6.ParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZ.......................................................................E 11TableE 7.GolfCourseswithinth eEPZ...................................................................................................E 13TableE 8.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 13TableF 1.HarrisTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan...................................................................................F 2TableH 1.PercentofSub ZonePopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion................................................H 2TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHi ghestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 4TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J 5TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)...........................................................................................................................J 6TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J 7TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 46TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled.........................................K 148TableM 1.EvacuationTi meEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableM 4.ETEVariationfor50%IceReduction-Scenario8................................................................M 5TableM 5.ETEVariationfor50%IceReduction-Scenario11..............................................................M 5TableM 6.ETEforPeakConstructionYear2022...................................................................................M 6TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1
HarrisNuclearPlantES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheHarrisNuclearPlant(HNP)locatedinWakeCounty,NorthCarolina.ETEprovideDukeEnergyandStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,December2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG 0654/FE MA REP 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities,10CFR50,AppendixE.OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinMarch,2012andextendedoveraperiodof9months.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingwithDukeEnergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010. StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheHNP,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofth ehighwaynetwork. SynthesizedthisinformationtocreateananalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweenth eEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey. AdataneedsmatrixwasprovidedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting.TheOROsprovidedallavailabledatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andsp ecialfacilitiesintheEPZ.
HarrisNuclearPlantES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Thetrafficdemandandtrip generationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto14Sub Zones.TheseSubZonesarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof36EvacuationRegions. Thetime varyingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain,Ice).OnespecialeventscenarioforFourthofJulyonJordanLakewasconsidered.OneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonUS 1northbound(fromNewHillHollemanRdtoI 40)andUS 64eastbound(fromNC 751toI 40)fo rthedurationoftheevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5milesareevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: Arapidlyes calatingaccidentattheHNPthatquicklyassumesthestatusofarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplementedsuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisvirtuallycoincidentwiththesirenalert,an dnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthestatedpercentageofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncentersorhostschoolslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtono tpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthecountyevac uationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllikewisebeevacuatedwithpublictransit,asneeded:bus,minivan,passengercar,wheelchairtransportorambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEarecalculatedforthetransit dependentevacuees,forhomeboundspecialneedspopulation,andforthoseevacuatedfr omspecialfacilities.
HarrisNuclearPlantES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Attended"final"meetingwithDukeEnergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernmentstopresentresultsfromthestudy.ComputationofETEAtotalof504ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe36EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe14EvacuationScenarios(36x14=504).Sepa rateETEarecalculatedfortransit dependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofETEassumesthat20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidetheimpactedregion,willel ectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.TheimpedancethatcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfo rtheimpactedregion.Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter in place.Once90%ofthe2 mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillev acuateeventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter in place.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Eachlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;ea chnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),th ensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofthepopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.These HarrisNuclearPlantES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1statisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.TrafficManagementThisstudyreferencesthecomprehensiveexistingtrafficmanagementplansprovidedbyChatham,Harnett,LeeandWakeCounties.SeveraladditionaltrafficcontrolpointsaresuggestedinAppendixGtofacilitatetrafficflowtothenewlyconstructedNC 540Tollhighway.Theseadditionaltrafficcontrolmeasureshavebeenreviewedandapprovedbytheemergencymanagementagencies.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformoffiguresandtablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6displaysamapoftheHNPEPZshowingthelayoutofthe14Sub Zonesthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3pr esentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachSub Zonebasedonthe2010Censusdata. Table6 1defineseachofthe36EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofSubZones. Table6 2liststheEvacuationScenarios. Tables7 1and7 2arecompilationsofETEforthegeneralpopulation.Thesedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopul ationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherre gionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Tables7 3and7 4presentETEforthe2 mileregionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table8 7presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. Table8 11presentsETEforthetransit dependentpopulationingoodweather. FigureH 8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.Mapsofal lregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor504uniquecases.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheseETErangefrom1:00(hr:min)to3:40atthe90 thpercentile. InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile.ThisistheresultofthecongestionwithintheEPZ.Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatrates HarrisNuclearPlantES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1somewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.SeeFigures7 9through7 22. InspectionofTable7 3andTable7 4indicatesthatastagedevacuat ionprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles(compareRegionsR02andR04throughR12withRegionsR27throughR36,respectively,inTable7 1).SeeSection7.6fo radditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios5(summer,midweek/weekend,evening)and13(summer,weekend,evening)inTable7 2indicatesthatthespecialeventdoesnotmateriallyaffecttheETE.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonUS 1andonelaneeastboundonUS 64-doesnothaveamaterialimpacton90 thpercentileETE.Bothroadwaysareoperatingbelowcapacitythroughoutthedurationoftheevacuation,withtheexceptionofsomesignalizedintersectionsalongUS 64experiencingLOSF.Availablecapacityonothermajorevacuationroutes,mostnotablyNC 540TollandNC 55northboundalleviatesanynotablenegativeimpactcausedbyclosingonelan eonbothUS 1andUS 64.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ThepopulationcentersofApex,HollySpringsandFuquay Varinaarethemostcongestedareasthroughouttheevacuation.ThelastlocationintheEPZtoexhibittrafficcongestionisFuquay Varina;thisistheresultoftwomajorevacuationroutes,NC 55andUS 401comingtogetherinthecitycent erofFuquay VarinaasevacueesmaketheirwayoutoftheEPZ.AllcongestionwithintheEPZclearsby3hoursand30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 8. Separat eETEwerecomputedforschoolsandchildcarecenters,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpersonsandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Theaveragesingle waveETEforhomeboundspecialneedspersonsarecomparabletothegenerationpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile;averagesingle waveETEformedicalfacilitiesandschoolsandchildcarecentersarelessthanthe90 thpercentileforthegeneralpopulation;and,averagesingle waveETEfortransitdependentpersonsaregreaterthanthe90 thpercentileforthegeneralpopulation.SeeSection8. Table8 5indicatesthatthereareenoughbus,wheelchairtransport,passengercarandambulanceresourcesavailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave;however,therearenotenoughminivanstoevacuatemedicalfacilitiesinasinglewave.Therearesurplusbusesandpassengercarsavailabletosupplementtheshortageinminivanssuchthatallpeoplecanevac uateinasinglewave.SeeSections8.4and8.5. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileisinsensitivetoreductionsinthebasetripgenerationtimeof41/2hoursduetothetrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisrelativelyinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion(triplingtheshadowevacuationpercentageonly HarrisNuclearPlantES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1increases90 thpercentileETEby5minutes).100%shadowevacuationincreasestheETEby20minutesforthe90 thpercentile.SeeTableM 2. Anincreaseinpermanentresidentpopulation(EPZplusShadowRegion)of14%ormoreresultsinETEchangeswhichmeetthecriterionforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.SeeSectionM.3. Asevereicestormresultingina50%reductioninlinkcapacityandfreeflowspeedincreasesETEforthe2 Mileand5 MileRegionsbyatmost5minutes;however,increasesthe90 thpercentilefortheentireEPZbyupto1hourand25minutesandupto2hoursand35minutesatthe100 thpercentileETE.SeeSectionM 4 Projectingthestudyarea(EPZplusShadowRegion)permanentresidentpopulationtothepeakconstructionyearof2022forthenewplantsiteincreasesthe90 thpercentileETEby5minutesforthe2 mileregionand5 mileregionand25minutesforthefullEPZ.Addingthe3,271constructionworkervehiclesfurtherincreasesthe90 thpercentileETEby1hourand40minutesforthe2 mileregion,55minutesforthe5 mileregionand5minutesforthefullEPZ.SeeSectionM 5.
HarrisNuclearPlantES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.HNPEPZSubZones HarrisNuclearPlantES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationSub Zone2000Population2007Population(Estimated) 12010PopulationA143180134B1,2341,3971,257C3314162,086D258319346E26,08232,87945,269F10,76413,53422,342G12,86415,49721,463H2,9063,4443,868I804947963J1,1451,3481,126K619763688L708874815M1,4401,7781,753N584721851TOTAL59,88274,097102,961EPZPopulationGrowth(2000 2010):71.9%EPZPopulationGrowth(2007 2010):39.0%1Rev.42007COLAETE2000Censusextrapolatedto2007basedonaverageannualcountygrowthratesfrom20052007 HarrisNuclearPlantES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR012 MileRadius2 MileRadiusxR025 MileRadius5 MileRadiusxxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRadiusxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR04NNW,N327°010°xxxR05NNE,NE011°056°xxR06ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR07SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR08SSW192°214°xxR09SW,WSW215°259°xxxR10260°281°xxR11W,WNW282°304°xxxR12NW305°326°xxEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR13N348°034°xxxxxxxxR14NNExxxxxxxxxR15NExxxxxxxxR16ENE035°079°xxxxxxxxxR17E,ESE080°101°xxxxxxxxR18102°124°xxxxxxxR19SE125°146°xxxxxxxxR20SSE147°191°xxxxxxxxxR21S,SSWxxxxxxxxR22192°236°xxxxxxxR23SW237°259°xxxxxxxxR24WSW,WxxxxxxxxxR25WNW260°326°xxxxxxxxxR26NW,NNW327°347°xxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR275 MileRadiusxxxxxxR28NNW,N327°010°xxxR29NNE,NE011°056°xxR30ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR31SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR32SSW192°214°xxR33SW,WSW215°259°xxxR34260°281°xxR35W,WNW282°304°xxxR36NW305°326°xxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSub Zone(s)Shelter in PlaceSub Zone(s)Evacuate HarrisNuclearPlantES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodFourthofJulyonJordanLake14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosuresonUS 1andUS 642Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.
HarrisNuclearPlantES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R032:503:002:402:502:402:503:003:102:402:503:052:402:402:552 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR041:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R051:301:301:301:301:451:301:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R061:201:201:151:151:301:201:201:201:151:151:151:401:251:20R071:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R081:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R092:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R101:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:501:50R111:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R121:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:151:151:151:301:251:205 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR132:002:001:401:401:552:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:452:00R142:002:001:401:401:552:052:052:051:451:451:452:001:502:00R151:551:551:351:351:501:551:551:551:401:401:402:001:451:55R161:551:551:351:351:502:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:401:55R171:501:501:351:351:502:002:002:001:401:401:402:001:401:50R181:501:501:301:301:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R191:501:501:351:351:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R202:252:302:202:252:202:302:352:452:202:252:302:202:202:30R212:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R222:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R232:352:402:302:352:302:352:402:502:302:352:402:302:302:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR242:402:552:352:452:352:452:553:052:352:452:552:352:352:50R252:553:152:503:052:453:003:153:302:503:003:202:452:503:00R263:003:202:553:152:503:053:203:402:553:103:302:502:553:00StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R281:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R291:301:301:301:301:451:351:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R301:201:201:201:201:301:251:251:251:201:201:201:401:251:20R311:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R321:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R332:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R341:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:50R351:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R361:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:201:201:201:301:251:20 HarrisNuclearPlantES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend MidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend Weekend MidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:402 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R094:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R104:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R114:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R124:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:355 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR134:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R144:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R154:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R164:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R174:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R184:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R194:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R204:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R214:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R224:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R234:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend MidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend Weekend MidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR244:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R254:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R264:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R284:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R294:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R304:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R314:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R324:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R334:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R344:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R364:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35
HarrisNuclearPlantES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR041:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R051:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R061:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R071:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R081:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R091:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R101:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R111:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R121:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R281:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R291:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R301:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R311:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R321:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R331:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R341:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R351:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R361:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR044:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R064:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R074:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R084:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R094:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R104:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R114:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R124:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R284:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R294:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R314:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R324:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R334:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R344:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R354:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R364:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30 HarrisNuclearPlantES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool90154.745.071:558.4122:10HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 190150.00.001:453.961:55LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 190150.00.001:458.8122:00WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool90153.041.251:5017.3242:15ApexElementarySchool90153.345.051:5014.7202:10ApexMiddleSchool90152.945.041:5017.1232:15ApexSeniorHighSchool90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25LufkinRoadMiddleSchool90151.245.021:5017.1232:15OliveChapelElementarySchool90153.38.0252:1017.4242:35St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool90154.940.581:5510.6152:10ThalesAcademy90152.936.351:5014.7202:10HollyGroveElementarySchool90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25HollyGroveMiddleSchool90158.230.7172:0524.9342:40HollyRidgeElementarySchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollyRidgeMiddleSchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollySpringsElementarySchool90153.77.7302:1524.7332:50HollySpringsHighSchool90158.730.7172:0513.5192:25NewSchool,Inc.Montessori90152.721.781:5513.4182:15Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool90150.93.9142:0028.4382:40Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool90153.335.361:5527.0372:35LincolnHeightsElementarySchool90151.73.6292:1528.4382:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids90151.545.031:5016.1222:15ApexBaptistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15ApexChildCarewithDebbie90153.036.351:5014.7202:10ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15EarthAngel'sDayCareHome90151.839.131:5016.1222:15EdithFranklinDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GoddardSchoolApex90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GraceChurchPreschool90151.545.031:5016.1222:15GrowingYearsLearningCenter90152.718.491:5514.7202:15HopeChapelPreschool90151.411.381:5515.9222:20Judy'sHomeCare90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25Karin' 4 Kidz90154.426.2112:0014.7202:20Lori'sFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10MoravicFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10PlayCare90153.219.2112:0015.9222:25Vickie'sDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15WoodhavenBaptistPre school90151.545.031:5016.1222:15HollySpringsLearningCenter90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25KiddieAcademyofHollySprings90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25LittleDreamersPreschool90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Sisters'ChildCareServices90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25StellaLowerySmallDayCare90151.521.651:5013.4182:10SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.721.781:5513.4182:15 HarrisNuclearPlantES 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25AMother'sLove90152.94.0442:3012.8182:50ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30LittleAngelsPreparatory90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00LittleMiracles90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00ReadyOrNotHereIGrow90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25ShiningStarChildCareHome90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00SouthWakePreschool&Academy90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05SpinningWheelsLearningCenter90151.439.031:5011.2152:05VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25MaximumforEPZ:2:45Maximum:3:05AverageforEPZ:2:05Average:2:25Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlantES 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool100204.741.072:108.4132:25HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:003.962:10LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:008.8132:15WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool100203.035.062:1017.3262:40ApexElementarySchool100203.341.052:0514.7222:30ApexMiddleSchool100202.941.052:0517.1262:35ApexSeniorHighSchool100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35LufkinRoadMiddleSchool100201.241.022:0517.1262:35OliveChapelElementarySchool100203.38.1252:2517.4262:55St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool100204.936.492:1010.6162:30ThalesAcademy100202.936.752:0514.7222:30HollyGroveElementarySchool100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40HollyGroveMiddleSchool100208.231.1162:2024.9373:00HollyRidgeElementarySchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollyRidgeMiddleSchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollySpringsElementarySchool100203.77.6302:3024.7373:10HollySpringsHighSchool100208.731.1172:2013.5202:40NewSchool,Inc.Montessori100202.727.072:1013.4202:30Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool100200.92.9182:2028.4423:05Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool100203.334.962:1027.0402:50LincolnHeightsElementarySchool100201.72.9362:4028.4423:25SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25 HarrisNuclearPlantES 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids100201.541.032:0516.1242:30ApexBaptistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40ApexChildCarewithDebbie100203.036.752:0514.7222:30ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40EarthAngel'sDayCareHome100201.835.442:0516.1242:30EdithFranklinDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GoddardSchoolApex100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GraceChurchPreschool100201.541.032:0516.1242:30GrowingYearsLearningCenter100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40HopeChapelPreschool100201.44.9182:2015.9242:45Judy'sHomeCare100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35Karin' 4 Kidz100204.440.472:1014.7222:35Lori'sFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30MoravicFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30PlayCare100203.29.9202:2015.9242:45Vickie'sDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40WoodhavenBaptistPre school100201.541.032:0516.1242:30HollySpringsLearningCenter100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation100204.530.792:1013.5202:30HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40KiddieAcademyofHollySprings100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45LittleDreamersPreschool100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Sisters'ChildCareServices100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45StellaLowerySmallDayCare100201.522.542:0513.4202:25SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.727.072:1013.4202:30 HarrisNuclearPlantES 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45AMother'sLove100202.94.4402:4012.8193:00ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50LittleAngelsPreparatory100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20LittleMiracles100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20ReadyOrNotHereIGrow100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45ShiningStarChildCareHome100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20SouthWakePreschool&Academy100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25SpinningWheelsLearningCenter100201.435.832:0511.2172:25VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45MaximumforEPZ:3:05Maximum:3:25AverageforEPZ:2:20Average:2:45Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow
HarrisNuclearPlantES 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool110254.736.082:258.4142:40HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:153.972:25LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:158.8152:30WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool110253.031.762:2517.3292:55ApexElementarySchool110253.336.062:2514.7252:50ApexMiddleSchool110252.936.052:2017.1292:50ApexSeniorHighSchool110250.85.492:2515.9272:55LufkinRoadMiddleSchool110251.236.022:2017.1292:50OliveChapelElementarySchool110253.38.1252:4017.4293:10St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool110254.935.892:2510.6182:45ThalesAcademy110252.932.662:2514.7252:50HollyGroveElementarySchool110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00HollyGroveMiddleSchool110258.225.7202:3524.9423:20HollyRidgeElementarySchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollyRidgeMiddleSchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollySpringsElementarySchool110253.77.1322:5024.7423:35HollySpringsHighSchool110258.727.8192:3513.5233:00NewSchool,Inc.Montessori110252.719.992:2513.4232:50Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool110250.92.9182:3528.4483:25Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool110253.328.572:2527.0463:15LincolnHeightsElementarySchool110251.72.2473:0528.4483:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids110251.536.032:2016.1272:50ApexBaptistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50ApexChildCarewithDebbie110253.032.562:2514.7252:50ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50EarthAngel'sDayCareHome110251.831.042:2016.1272:50EdithFranklinDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GoddardSchoolApex110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GraceChurchPreschool110251.536.032:2016.1272:50GrowingYearsLearningCenter110252.723.182:2514.7252:50HopeChapelPreschool110251.44.1212:4015.9273:10Judy'sHomeCare110250.85.492:2515.9272:55Karin' 4 Kidz110254.436.082:2514.7252:50Lori'sFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45MoravicFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45PlayCare110253.28.0252:4015.9273:10Vickie'sDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50WoodhavenBaptistPre school110251.536.032:2016.1272:50HollySpringsLearningCenter110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00KiddieAcademyofHollySprings110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00LittleDreamersPreschool110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Sisters'ChildCareServices110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00StellaLowerySmallDayCare110251.518.452:2013.4232:45SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.719.992:2513.4232:50 HarrisNuclearPlantES 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00AMother'sLove110252.94.0443:0012.8223:25ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10LittleAngelsPreparatory110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45LittleMiracles110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45ReadyOrNotHereIGrow110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05ShiningStarChildCareHome110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45SouthWakePreschool&Academy110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40SpinningWheelsLearningCenter110251.431.932:2011.2192:40VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05MaximumforEPZ:3:20Maximum:3:55AverageforEPZ:2:35Average:3:05Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlantES 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 312020.245.027303:0010.01351067305:054 613520.245.027303:1510.01351067305:206 915020.245.027303:3010.01351067305:35411 312014.710.584303:5512.81751056305:554 613014.711.378304:0012.81751056306:006 914014.712.570304:0012.81751056306:009 1215014.713.963304:0512.81751056306:05421 312013.045.017302:506.5951044304:304 613013.045.017303:006.5951044304:406 914013.045.017303:106.5951044304:509 1115013.045.017303:206.5951044305:00431 512017.219.254303:2514.72051066305:406 1012517.221.847303:2514.72051066305:4011 1513017.222.546303:3014.72051066305:4516 2013517.223.544303:3014.72051066305:4521 2514017.226.539303:3014.72051066305:4526 2914517.227.737303:3514.72051066305:5030 3315017.230.534303:3514.72051066305:50441 412020.519.862303:3513.41851073305:555 712520.520.560303:3513.41851073305:558 1013020.521.358303:4013.41851073306:0011 1313520.524.151303:4013.41851073306:0014 1614020.525.349303:4013.41851073306:0017 1914520.526.746303:4513.41851073306:0520 2215020.527.844303:4513.41851073306:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41208.35.787304:0013.71851043305:505 71308.36.182304:0513.71851043305:558 101358.36.379304:0513.71851043305:5511 131408.36.576304:1013.71851043306:0014 161458.36.873304:1013.71851043306:0017 191508.37.170304:1013.71851043306:0046112014.345.019302:5024.23251070305:20215014.345.019303:2024.23251070305:5047112017.335.929303:0018.82551071305:25213517.339.027303:1518.82551071305:40315017.338.927303:3018.82551071305:554811206.045.08302:4010.51451030304:104911209.945.013302:457.41051036304:2021509.945.013303:157.41051036304:50MaximumETE:4:10MaximumETE:6:05AverageETE:3:35AverageETE:5:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 313020.241.030403:2010.01551074405:454 614520.241.030403:3510.01551074406:006 916020.241.030403:5010.01551074406:15411 313014.79.593404:2512.81951062406:454 614014.710.287404:3012.81951062406:506 915014.711.080404:3512.81951062406:559 1216014.712.173404:3512.81951062406:55421 313013.041.019403:106.5951047405:054 614013.041.019403:206.5951047405:156 915013.041.019403:306.5951047405:259 1116013.041.019403:406.5951047405:35431 513017.219.553403:4514.72151071406:156 1013517.220.251403:5014.72151071406:2011 1514017.221.049403:5014.72151071406:2016 2014517.223.644403:5014.72151071406:2021 2515017.224.742403:5514.72151071406:2526 2915517.227.138403:5514.72151071406:2530 3316017.228.237404:0014.72151071406:30441 413020.518.666404:0013.42051080406:355 713520.519.364404:0013.42051080406:358 1014020.521.757404:0013.42051080406:3511 1314520.522.854404:0013.42051080406:3514 1615020.523.952404:0513.42051080406:4017 1915520.524.949404:0513.42051080406:4020 2216020.527.445404:0513.42051080406:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41308.34.8105404:3513.72051047406:405 71408.35.099404:4013.72051047406:458 101458.35.296404:4513.72051047406:5011 131508.35.493404:4513.72051047406:5014 161558.35.590404:5013.72051047406:5517 191608.35.787404:5013.72051047406:5546113014.341.021403:1524.23551077406:05216014.341.021403:4524.23551077406:3547113017.330.134403:2518.82751078406:05214517.335.030403:3518.82751078406:15316017.335.329403:5018.82751078406:304811306.041.09403:0010.51551033404:454911309.940.815403:057.41151040404:5521609.941.014403:357.41151040405:25MaximumETE:4:50MaximumETE:6:55AverageETE:4:00AverageETE:6:20
HarrisNuclearPlantES 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 314020.236.034503:4510.01751084506:354 615520.236.034504:0010.01751084506:506 917020.236.034504:1510.01751084507:05411 314014.78.6102504:5512.82151070507:354 615014.79.395504:5512.82151070507:356 916014.711.180504:5012.82151070507:309 1217014.712.173504:5512.82151070507:35421 314013.036.022503:356.51151054505:454 615013.036.022503:456.51151054505:556 916013.036.022503:556.51151054506:059 1117013.036.022504:056.51151054506:15431 514017.217.659504:1014.72451081507:006 1014517.218.257504:1514.72451081507:0511 1515017.219.154504:1514.72451081507:0516 2015517.221.249504:1514.72451081507:0521 2516017.222.047504:2014.72451081507:1026 2916517.223.943504:2014.72451081507:1030 3317017.224.642504:2514.72451081507:15441 414020.516.475504:3013.42251090507:305 714520.516.973504:3013.42251090507:308 1015020.518.866504:3013.42251090507:3011 1315520.519.463504:3013.42251090507:3014 1616020.520.261504:3513.42251090507:3517 1916520.520.959504:3513.42251090507:3520 2217020.522.954504:3513.42251090507:35 HarrisNuclearPlantES 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41408.33.9128505:2013.72351054507:455 71508.34.1122505:2513.72351054507:508 101558.34.2120505:2513.72351054507:5011 131608.34.3117505:3013.72351054507:5514 161658.34.4114505:3013.72351054507:5517 191708.35.689505:1013.72351054507:3546114014.336.024503:3524.24051088506:50217014.336.024504:0524.24051088507:2047114017.324.443503:5518.83151089507:00215517.331.034504:0018.83151089507:05317017.332.032504:1518.83151089507:204811406.034.211503:2510.51751037505:254911409.935.917503:307.41251045505:3521709.936.017504:007.41251045506:05MaximumETE:5:30MaximumETE:7:55AverageETE:4:25AverageETE:7:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 HarrisNuclearPlant1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheHarrisNuclearPlant(HNP),locatedinWakeCounty,NC.ETEprovidesDukeEnergyandstateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionDukeEnergyMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagencies.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.Attendedfinalmeeting.ChathamCountyEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtaincountyemergencyplans,specialfacilitydataandexistingtrafficmanagementplansthroughe mailandphonecalls.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.HarnettCountyEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtaincountyemergencyplans,specialfacilitydataandexistingtrafficmanagementplansthroughe mailandphonecalls.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumption.Attendedfinalmeeting.LeeCountyOfficeofEmergencyServices HarrisNuclearPlant1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionWakeCountyEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtaincountyemergencyplan,GISdata,specialfacilitydataandexistingtrafficmanagementplansthroughe mailandphonecalls.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.Attendedfinalmeeting.NorthCarolinaEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtainstateemergencyplans.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.Attendedfinalmeeting.OfficesofJordanLakeStateRecreationArea(SRA)ObtaintransientdataforJordanLakeNorthCarolinaDepartmentofTransportationandNorthCarolinaTurnpikeAuthorityObtainroadwayandinterchangeinformationforNC 540Toll.1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromDukeEnergy.b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromChathamCountyEmergencyManagement,HartnettCountyEmergencyManagement,LeeCountyOfficeofEmergencyServices,WakeCountyEmergencyManagementandNorthCarolinaEmergencyManagementtoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatrafficconditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)1andShadowRegion.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromthe2010census.e. ConductedarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.f. Conductedadatacollectionefforttoidentifyanddescribeschoolsandchildcarecenters,medicalfacilities,transientattractions,majoremployers,transportationresourcesavailable,andotherimportantinformation.2. Estimateddistributionsoftripgenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelephonesurvey.1AllreferencestoEmergencyPlanningZoneorEPZrefertotheplumeexposurepathwayEPZ.
HarrisNuclearPlant1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.4. Reviewedtheexistingtrafficmanagementplantobeimplementedbylocalandstatepoliceintheeventofanincidentattheplant.Trafficcontrolisappliedatspecif iedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. UsedexistingSub Zonestodefineevacuationregions.TheEPZispartitionedinto14Sub Zonesalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguousSub ZonesforwhichETEarecalculate d.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsatspecialfacilitiesandfortransit dependentpersonsatho me.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystemwhichcomputesETE(SeeAppendicesBandC).a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,DukeEnerg yandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM 2)tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelink noderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.e. Specifiedselectedcand idatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationoftheHNP.8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltodetermineoptimalevacuat ionroutingandcomputeETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,childcarecenters,andmedicalfacilities),forthetransit dependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.2HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.
HarrisNuclearPlant1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.2 TheHarrisNuclearPlantLocationTheHNPislocatedonLakeHarrisapproximately20milessouthwestofRaleigh,NorthCarolina.TheEPZconsistsofpartsofChatham,Harnett,LeeandWakeCounties.AmajorityofthenorthwesternportionoftheEPZismadeupofBEverettJordanLake.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingtheHNP.Thismapidentifiesthecommunitiesintheareaan dthemajorroads.
HarrisNuclearPlant1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.HNPLocation HarrisNuclearPlant1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1,700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewa ysections,avalueof2,250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe HarrisNuclearPlant1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereob served,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpre timed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakentogatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateel ementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).
HarrisNuclearPlant1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.HNPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork HarrisNuclearPlant1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DT A),modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbased,anddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuati onTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationoftheHNP.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthataredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthesecountermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.
HarrisNuclearPlant1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththeprevious(2007)study.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: ChangeswhichcauseanincreaseinETE:o Significant(39%)increaseinpermanentresidentpopulationo Adecreaseintheaveragevehicleoccupancy(1 2%)whichresultsin12%moreevacuatingvehicleso Residentswithcommuterstake30minuteslongertomobilizeo Residentswithoutcommuterstake45minuteslongertomobilize ChangeswhichcauseadecreaseinETE:o Adecrease(13%)inemployeescommutingintotheEPZo Adecrease(23%)intransientswithintheEPZ.The2007studyconsideredthe4 thofJulypeaktransientlevelsatJordanLakeastheaveragetransientpopulation.ThisstudyusesaveragesummertransientpopulationatJordanLake.o Adecreaseinshadowandvoluntaryevacuationbyasmuchas30%.o Theproceduresoutlinedinthe2010HCMresultinslightlyhigherbaselineroadwaycapacitiesthantheproceduresintheHCM2000.o Increasedroadwayca pacity-thenewlyconstructedNC 540TollandJuddParkwayprovidesignificantcapacityimprovementsinthestudyareao Transientsandemployeesmobilize35minutesfaster.o Evacuationmodelimprovements-theDYNEVIIsystemusesDynamicTrafficAssignment(SeeAppendicesBan dC)whichadjustsroutingtoavoidtrafficcongestiontotheextentfeasible(similartoamodernGPS).Thesignificantincreaseinpermanentresidentpopulationcoupledwiththesignificantdecreaseinvehicleoccupancyresultsinmanymoreevacuatingvehiclesinthisstudythaninthepreviousstudy,whichwouldtypicallyleadtosignificant(greaterthan30minutes)increasesinETE.However,thevariousfactorsthatdecreaseETE,especiallytheadditionalroadwaycapacit yprovidedbyNC 540TollandJuddParkway,helptooffsetthesignificantincreaseinevacuatingvehicles.Theendresultisa15minuteincreaseinETEatthe90 thpercentileforwinterweekdaycasesanda25minuteincreaseforsummerweekendcases.
HarrisNuclearPlant1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasisArcGISSoftwareusing2000USCensusblocks;blockcentroidmethodused;populationextrapolatedto2007.Population=74,097ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused.Population=102,961ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancy3.05persons/household,1.33evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:2.29persons/vehicle.2.82persons/household,1.39evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:2.02persons/vehicle.EmployeePopulationEmployeestreatedasseparatepopulationgroup.EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZ,supplementedbyobservationsofcommercialpropertyinEPZfromaerialimagery.1.08employees/vehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults.Employees=3,984EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZ.1.07employeespervehiclebasedontelephon esurveyresults.Employees=3,467TransitDependentPopulationDefinedashouseholdswith0vehicles.Telephonesurveyresultsusedtoestimatetransitdependentpopulation.Atotalof345peoplerequiring12busestoevacuate.Anadditional99homeboundspecialneedspersonsneedspecialtransportationtoevacuate(76requireabus,17requireawheelchair accessiblevehicle,and6requireanambulance).EstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Includeshouseholdswith0vehiclesandhouseholdswith1or2vehicleswhichareusedbyacommuterwhowouldnotreturnhome.Atotalof3,419peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring114busestoevacuate.Anadditional103homeboundspecialneedspersonsneedspecialtransportationtoevacuate(75requireabus,19requireawheelchair accessiblevehicle,and9requireanambulance).TransientPopulationTransientestimatesbasedoninformationfromcountyandinternetsearcheswereusedtoobtainmoredetailedinformation.Transients=14,831TransientestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Transients=11,442 HarrisNuclearPlant1 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyMedicalFacilityPopulationMedicalfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.MedicalFacilityPopulation=686Vehiclesoriginatingatspecialfacilities=78SpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.MedicalFacilityPopulation=896Vehiclesoriginatingatspecialfacilities=143SchoolPopulationSchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=16,850Busesrequired=309SchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.ChildCareCentersincludedintheseestimates.Schoolenrollment=23,530Busesrequired=445VoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuated50%ofpopulationwithinthecircularportionoftheregion;35%,inannularringbetweenthecircleandtheEPZboundary.20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)ShadowEvacuation30%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheshadowregion.20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFigure7 2)NetworkSize1,720Links;1,234Nodes.2,311links;1,613nodesRoadwayGeometricDataFieldsurveysconductedin2006.Majorintersectionswerevideoarchived.GISshape filesofsignallocationsandroadwaycharacteristicscreatedduringroadsurvey.RoadcapacitiesbasedonHCM2000.FieldsurveysconductedinMarch2012.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedRelocationSchool.DirectevacuationtodesignatedRelocationSchool.Ridesharing50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighboroffriend.50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.
HarrisNuclearPlant1 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTripGenerationforEvacuationBasedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersleavebetween30and240minutes.Householdswithoutcommutersleavebetween15and180minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and150minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Basedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and270minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and225minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and105minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherNormal,Rain,orIce.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forice.Normal,Rain,orIce.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forice.ModelingI DYNEVSystem:TRADandPC DYNEV.DYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.10.0SpecialEventsNewPlantConstruction.SpecialEventPopulation:3,500additionalemployeesFourthofJulyonJordanLakeSpecialEventPopulation=7,112additionaltransientsEvacuationCases25Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and12Scenariosproducing300uniquecases36Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and14Scenariosproducing504uniquecases.EvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedfor50 th ,90 th ,95 th ,and100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90 thand100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZ,90 thpercentileWinterWeekdayMiddayGoodWeather=2:35SummerWeekendMiddayGoodWeather=2:15WinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather=2:50SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather=2:40 HarrisNuclearPlant2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.NUREG/CR 7002wasusedasthebasisformostoftheassumptionsprovidedinthissection.KLDhasbeendoingETEstudiesforU.S.nuclearpowerplantsforover30years,including16newplantapplicationsduringthelast5years.Duringthattime,KLDhasworkedwithmorethan100stateandcountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThenewplantapplicationETEstudieswerereviewedextensivelybytheU.S.NuclearRegulatoryCommission(NRC)andrefinedthroughtheRequestforAdditionalInformation(RAI)process.KLDdevelopedalistofkeyprojectass umptionsbasedonNUREG/CR 7002,onyearsofETEexperienceandinteractionwithoffsiteagencies,andonfeedbackfromtheNRCthroughRAIs.Thelistwasdiscussedwithstakeholdersattheprojectkickoffmeeting.Thelistwasthenrefinedbasedoninputsfromstakeholdersanddocumentedinatechnicalme mo.ThememowasapprovedbyallstakeholderspriortocomputingETE.2.1 DataEstimates1. PermanentresidentpopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebasedupondataprovidedbycountyemergencymanagementdepartments.3. Populationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromcountyemergencymanagementdepartments.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCapacityManual2010.5. Populationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanal ysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. TherelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromtheU.S.Censusandthetelephonesurvey(SeeAppendixF).Averagevaluesof2.82peopleperhouseholdand1.39evacuatingvehiclespe rhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandemployeesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.07employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. Campgrounds,parks,communitycenters,golfcoursesandlodgingfacilities:Vehicleoccupancyvariesbasedupondataprovidedforlocaltransientfacilities.SeeAppendixE.c. SpecialEv ent:VehicleoccupancyfortransientsattendingFourthofJulyonJordanLakewasderivedfromdataprovidedbytheofficesoftheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaforeachJordanLakefacility.Vehicleoccupancyvariesbyfacilityandtheoverallaverageis3.5peoplepervehicle.11DatafromRevision4ofthe2007COLAETEstudywasappliedtooneoftheJordanLakeFacilities(Poe'sRidge)
HarrisNuclearPlant2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofSub ZonesthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.3. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyoftheSubZonesincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.4. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.Twentypercent(20%)ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.Twentypercent(20%)ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).5. Atotalof14"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherconditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareou tlinedinTable2 1.6. Scenario14considerstheclosureofonelanenorthboundonUS 1fromjusteastoftheinterchangewithNewHillHollemanRd(Exit89)totheinterchangewithI 40(Exit1A)andonelaneeastboundonUS 64fromNewHillOliveChapelRd/NC 751totheinterchang ewithI 40(Exit1A).
HarrisNuclearPlant2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDay WeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodFourthofJulyonJordanLake14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosuresonUS 1andUS 64
2Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.
HarrisNuclearPlant2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology HarrisNuclearPlant2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplementedthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofSubZonesformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 68percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1commuter;41percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore28percent(68%x41%=28%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacua tiontrip.Itisassumedthattheresponsestothetelephonesurveyregardingthereturnofcommuterspriortoevacuatingareapplicableforthisstudy.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderat ionof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.5. SecurityRoadBlocks(SRB)willbestaffedwithinapproximately30minutesfollowingthesirennotifications(basedupondataprovidedbyemergencymanagementagencies),todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofSRBlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis30minutetimeperiod.6. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningatth eAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytrav elerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.7. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002.
HarrisNuclearPlant2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 3).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.TheDYNEVIISystemisusedtocomputeETEinthisstudy.InformationprovidedbylocallawenforcementandcountyemergencymanagementdepartmentsindicatedthatPriority1TCPcouldbemannedwithin30minutesandallotherTCPcouldbemannedwithin120minutes.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.9. Buses,vans,ambulances,andminivanswillbeus edtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedrelocationschools.b. Studentsatprivateschoolsandchildcarecenterswillevacuatedirectlytothedesignatedrelocationschools.c. Buses,wheelchairvansandambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoreceptioncenters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolsandchildcarecentersareinsession,aregivenpriorityinassigningtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredround trips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.10. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthege neralpopulationtoreceptioncentersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillride sharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 4 ,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.3Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.4InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswith HarrisNuclearPlant2 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.111. Twotypesofadverseweatherscenariosareconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios;iceoccursinwinterscenariosonly.Itisassumedthattherainoricebeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepresentintheEPZisassumed.Itisassumedthatroadsarepassableandthattheappropriateagenci esareclearingtheroadsastheywouldnormallywhenicyconditionsarepresent.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 5;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.12. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport70studentsperbusforelementaryschoolsand50studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedondiscussionswithcountyofficesofemergencymanagement.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30peopleperbus.ItisassumedthatdriversforvehiclesidentifiedinTable8 5ar eavailable.13. Schoolbuseswillbeloadedin15minutes.Busesformedicalfacilitiesandseniorfacilitieswillrequire2minutesofloadingtimeperpassengerandwheelchairtransportvehicleswillrequire7minutesofloadingtimeperpassenger.Ambulanceswillrequire15minutesofloadingtimeperpassenger.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationMobilizationTimeforTransitVehiclesRain90%90%NoEffect10minuteincreaseIce80%80%NoEffect20minuteincreaseIce(Sensitivity) 650%50%NoEffectN/ATransitdependentETEnotconsideredforthissensitivitystudy*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.otherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).5Agarwal,M.et.al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.6Asensitivitystudywasconsideredforamajoricestormwitha50%reductionincapacityandfreeflowspeed.SeeAppendixM.
HarrisNuclearPlant3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsoftheHNPEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythreedistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZonadailybasis.EstimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachSub Zoneandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationdistribution).TheHNPEP Zissubdividedinto14Sub Zones.TheEPZisshowninFigure3 1.
HarrisNuclearPlant3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.82persons/householdwasestimatedusingU.S.Censusdata-seeSectionF.3.1).Thenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.39vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 8)wasadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.TheestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbytheSub ZoneandEPZboundariesusingGISsoftware.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatethepopulationwithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacr ossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZbySub Zonebasedonthismethodology.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaveragehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable3 2.Figure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromHNP.ThispopulationdistributionwasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbeargue dthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductioncanbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforaperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasis,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.
HarrisNuclearPlant3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.HNPEPZ HarrisNuclearPlant3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationSub Zone2000Population2007Population(Estimated) 12010PopulationA143180134B1,2341,3971,257C3314162,086D258319346E26,08232,87945,269F10,76413,53422,342G12,86415,49721,463H2,9063,4443,868I804947963J1,1451,3481,126K619763688L708874815M1,4401,7781,753N584721851TOTAL59,88274,097102,961EPZPopulationGrowth(2000 2010):71.9%EPZPopulationGrowth(2007 2010):39.0%Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySubZoneSub Zone2010Population2010ResidentVehiclesA13464B1,257618C2,0861,026D346168E45,26922,279F22,34210,993G21,46310,556H3,8681,902I963473J1,126552K688336L815399M1,753858N851415TOTAL102,96150,6391Rev.42007COLAETE2000Censusextrapolatedto2007basedonaverageannualcountygrowthratesfrom2005 2007 HarrisNuclearPlant3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromtheHNP(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuationvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthosefortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesN6,3743,138NNE49,71524,478NE57,32128,239ENE22,33810,995E16,9958,365ESE11,4145,611SE6,0362,966SSE1,965969S1,777874SSW3,5061,723SW2,9151,428WSW2,9181,434W1,236605WNW4,9822,438NW2,9111,429NNW5,6872,798TOTAL198,09097,490
HarrisNuclearPlant3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.TheHNPEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiesth atattracttransients,including: Campgrounds Parks CommunityCenters GolfCourses LodgingFacilitiesJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaistheprimarytransientattractionwithintheEPZ.JordanLakeisa46,768acrelakelocatedinthenorthwesternportionoftheEPZ,occupyingpartsofSub ZonesL,M,andN.TheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaconsistsof12separatefacilities(11ofwhichareintheEPZwithCrosswindsCampgroundandMarinaaccountingfor2facilities)thatoffercamping,fishing,swimming,andboating.ThereareeightcampgroundswithintheEPZ.DataprovidedbyChathamCountyandtheofficesoftheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaincludedthenumberofcampsites,peakoccupancyandthenumberofvehiclesandpeoplepercampsiteforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfortransientsateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof4,060transi entsand1,338vehicleshavebeenassignedtocampgroundswithintheEPZ.Themajority,3,775transientsand1,161vehiclesareattributedtothefivedifferentJordanLakecampgroundfacilities(NewHopeOverlook,PoplarPoint,VistaPoint,CrosswindsCampgroundandMarina,andParker'sCreek).TherearenumerousparksandcommunitycenterswithintheEPZ.FiveofthefacilitiesareJordanLakeStateRecreationAreas(EbenezerChurch,Poe'sRidge,RobesonCreek,SeaforthandWhiteOak).DataprovidedbyChatham,HarnettandWakeCountiesandtheofficesoftheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaincludedthenumberoftransientsandvehiclesvisitingeachfacilityonapeakday.Atotalof6,296transientsand2,234vehicleshavebeenassignedtoparksandcommunitycenterswithintheEPZ.3,337transientsand873vehiclesareattributedtothefivedifferentJordanLakeparkfacilities.TherearethreegolfcourseswithintheEPZ.DataprovidedbyWakeCountyincludedthenumberofgolfersandvehiclesateachfacilityonapeakday,andthenumberofgolfersthattravelsfromoutsidethearea.Atotalof620transientsand410vehiclesareassignedtogolfcourseswithintheEPZ.ThereareninelodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.DataprovidedbyWakeCountyincludedth enumberofrooms,percentageofoccupiedroomsatpeaktimes,andthenumberofpeopleandvehiclesperroomforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof466transientsin402vehiclesareassignedtolodgingfacilitiesintheEPZ.
HarrisNuclearPlant3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE 5presentsthenumberoftransientsvisitingcampgrounds,TableE 6presentsthenumberoftransientsatparksandcommunitycenters,TableE 7presentsthenumberoftransientsatgolfcoursesandTableE 8presentsthenumberoftransientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table3 4presentstran sientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbySub Zone.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddistancefromtheplant.
HarrisNuclearPlant3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesSub ZoneTransientsTransientVehiclesA401182B289131C7030D224102E1,230771F703428G824375H8052I00J00K440210L2,767909M2,306667N2,108527TOTAL11,4424,384 HarrisNuclearPlant3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.4 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.DataprovidedbyChathamandWakeCountieswereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZforthoseemployerswhodidnotprovidedata.AccordingtoNUREG/CR 7002,employeesareconsideredtransients.Forthisstud y,transientsandemployeescommutingfromoutsideoftheEPZareconsideredseparately.Employeesandtransientshavedifferentscenariopercentages(seeTable6 3).Forexample,employeespeakduringthewinter,weekday,middayscenarioswhiletransientspeakduringsummerweekends.Forthisreason,employeesweretreatedseparatelyfromtransients.InTableE 4,theE mployees(MaxShift)aremultipliedbythepercentNon EPZfactortodeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.07employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(SeeFigureF 7)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajoremployers.Table3 5presentsnon EPZResidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbySub Zone.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector.
HarrisNuclearPlant3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesSub ZoneEmployeesEmployeeVehiclesA519485B00C00D00E1,2281,150F789739G582545H00I00J5753K247230L4542M00N00TOTAL3,4673,244 HarrisNuclearPlant3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 MedicalFacilitiesDatawereprovidedbythecountiesforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.TableE 3inAppendixEsummarizesthedatagathered.Section8detailstheevacuationofmedicalfacilitiesandtheirpatients.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesthatneedtobeprovideddependonthepatients'stateofhealth.Itisestimatedthatbusescantransportupto30people;wheelchairvans,upto4people;wheelchairbusesupto15people;minivansupto5people;passengercarsupto4peopleandambulances,upto2people.3.6 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(externalexternaltrips)atthetimeofanemergencyevent.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.Thesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingthestudyarea-US 1,US 64,US 401,US 421andI 40).Emergencymanagementagenciesindicatedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoenterthestudyduringthefirst30minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.Th eAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby1/2hour(SecurityRoadBlocks-SRB-areassumedtobeactivatedat30minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuatebasedupondataprovidedbyemergencymanagementagencies)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,thereare6,963vehiclesenteringthestudyareaasexternal externaltripspriortotheactivationoftheSRBandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and12)asdiscussedinSection6.3.7 SpecialEventDuringtheprojectkickoffmeeting,theoffsiteagenciesdiscussedtwospecialeventsinthestudyarea.EventsattheKokaBoothAmphitheatre(locatedinCaryjustoutsidetheEPZ)canattractatmost31,000people,15%ofwhomaretransientsforatotalof4,650transients(dataprovidedbyWakeCounty).DataprovidedbytheOfficesofJordanLakeSRAindicatedthat75%ofindividualsvisitingJordanLakefacilitiesaretransients,resultinginpermanentresidentswithintheEPZmakinguptheremaining25%.ThefireworksdisplayduringFourthofJulyonJordanLakeattracts14,224people,factoringoutthepermanentresidents.Basedonfederalguidance,Four thofJulywaschosenasthespecialevent(Scenario13)becauseithasthelargest HarrisNuclearPlant3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1transientpopulation.Peopleattendingthefireworksshowaredispersedbetweenthe11differentJordanLakefacilitieswithintheEPZ.DatawereobtainedfromtheofficesoftheJordanLakeSRA.Accordingtothedataprovided,the14,224peopleattendingthefireworkstravelin4,067vehicles.Fiftypercent(50%)ofthesetransientsarealreadypresentonJordanLakeduringanaveragesummerweekend.Thus,thereareanadditional7,112transientstravelinginapproximately2,033vehiclesforthespecialevent.TheseadditionalvehicleswereloadedontoappropriateroadwaysintheanalysisnetworkateachofthedifferentJordanLakefacilities.Thespecialeventvehicletripswer egeneratedutilizingthesamemobilizationdistributionsfortransients.Publictransportationisnotprovidedforthiseventandwasnotconsideredinthespecialeventanalysis.
HarrisNuclearPlant3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.HNPEPZExternalTrafficUpstreamNodeDownstreamNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2DFactor 2HourlyVolumeExternalTraffic8590590US 1NB17,0000.1160.254932478375375US 1SB17,0000.1160.59864938137137US 64EB17,0000.1160.254932478375375US 64WB17,0000.1160.59864938222222US 401NB11,0000.1160.56383198224224US 401SB11,0000.1160.563831981031103US 421EB5,7000.1180.53361688666666US 421WB5,7000.1180.5336168802020I 40EB110,0000.0820.54,5102,2558359359I 40WB110,0000.0820.54,5102,255TOTAL 6,9631 HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20122 HCM2010 HarrisNuclearPlant3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.8 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandisprovidedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.ThissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissectionandSection8.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof185,323peopleand86,017vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.
HarrisNuclearPlant3 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandSubZoneResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalA1344401519440001,102B1,25742289000001,588C2,0866970030002,228D3461122400000581E45,2691,5041,2301,2282618,8890058,376F22,342743703789447,9360032,552G21,4637138245824075,0020028,991H3,86812880000004,076I96332000000995J1,126370571370001,357K6882344024700001,398L815272,7674500003,654M1,753582,30600285004,402N851282,108000002,987Shadow000001,418 239,618041,036Total102,9613,41911,4423,46789623,53039,6180185,323NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.NOTE:SpecialFacilitiesonlyincludesmedicalfacilities.
2TherearetwoschoolsintheShadowthatevacuate-DeepRiverElementarySchoolinLeeCountyandLafayetteElementarySchoolinHarnettCounty.CountyemergencyplanscallforthesefacilitiestobeevacuatedbecauseoftheircloseproximitytotheEPZboundary.
HarrisNuclearPlant3 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandSubZoneResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalA6421824857000740B618213100000751C1,026430010001,061D168210200000272E22,2791007711,150563420024,696F10,99348428739132960012,515G10,55648375545701980011,792H1,902852000001,962I4732000000475J552205328000635K33622102300000778L39929094200001,352M85846670010001,539N415252700000944Shadow000004419,4986,96326,505Total50,6392284,3843,24417589019,4986,96386,017NOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.
HarrisNuclearPlant4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,snow,fog,windspeed,ice)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)
HarrisNuclearPlant4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentand20percentforrainandice,respectively.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacit ymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeinters ectionswhereflowcanbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsortur nbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobecomethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theex istingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedinthecountyemergencyplansareextensiveandwereupdatedbaseduponconstructionofNC 540TollandthecompletionofJuddPkwyinFuquay Varina.SeeAppendixGformoreinformation.Theper lan ecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:
HarrisNuclearPlant4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutesmovement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecutingmovement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycl e;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 HarrisNuclearPlant4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexityofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity HarrisNuclearPlant4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.
HarrisNuclearPlant4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtotheHNPStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade) FreewaysEachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15TwolaneroadscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"Clas sI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A HarrisNuclearPlant4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 FreewaysRef:HCMChapters10,11,12,13Chapter10oftheHCM2010describesaprocedureforintegratingtheresultsobtainedinChapters11,12and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewa ycomponents.Chapter10alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomaticallyperformsthisintegrationprocess.Chapter11oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSfor"BasicFreewaySegments".Exhibit11 17oftheHCM2010presentscapacit yvs.freespeedestimates,whichareprovidedbelow.FreeSpeed(mph):55606570+Per LaneCapacity(pc/h):2250230023502400Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,free speedsandcapacitybasedonfieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtime varyingspeedsbasedondemand:capacityrelationships.Aconservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof2250pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyforfreeways,asshowninAppendixK.Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapa city,speed,densityandLOSforfreewayweavingsections.Thesimulationmodelcontainslogicthatrelatesspeedtodemandvolume:capacityratio.ThevalueofcapacityobtainedfromthecomputationalproceduresdetailedinChapter12dependsonthe"Type"andgeometricsoftheweavingsegmentan donthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).Chapter13oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacitiesoframpsandof"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofarampfreewayjunction:Thecapacityofthefreewayimmediatelydownstreamofanon ramporimmediatelyupstreamofanoff ramp;thecapacityoftheramproadway;andthemaximumflowrateenteringtherampinfluencearea.Inmostcases,thefreewaycapacityisthecontrollingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit13 8oftheHCM2010,anddependonthenumberoffreewaylanesandonthefreewayfreespeed.RampcapacityispresentedinExhibit13 10andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficinaccordwiththeproceduresinCh apter13oftheHCM2010.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemandrelativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly).
HarrisNuclearPlant4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3.4 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Whereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersect ionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuat edsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contra flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChap ter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"ThesystemunderstudyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.Itisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicat ethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantof HarrisNuclearPlant4 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink.
HarrisNuclearPlant4 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams HarrisNuclearPlant5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREG/CR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundAsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplementedwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterthesirennotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthi scase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhentheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenal ert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthantheestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarelikelytobehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertandnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaof330squaremilesandisengagedina HarrisNuclearPlant5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1widevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromoneindividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevac uationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertravelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivin gnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbyteleph one,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.TheremainingdiscussionwillfocusontheapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.
HarrisNuclearPlant5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.
HarrisNuclearPlant5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbeforebeginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowthesecondsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweekendsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).Transientswillalwaysfollowon eofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicatedway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprecedingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthi sstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccurstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.
HarrisNuclearPlant5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.
2 Applies throughout the year for transients.
- ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time HarrisNuclearPlant5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Inaccordancewiththe2012FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessProgramManual,100%ofthepopulationisnotifiedwithin45minutes.Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)thatabout87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified0 0.0%5 7.1%10 13.3%15 26.5%20 46.9%25 66.3%30 86.7%35 91.8%40 96.9%45 100.0%
HarrisNuclearPlant5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.Thisdistributionisalsoapplicableforresidentstoleavestores,restaurants,parksandotherlocationswithintheEPZ.Thisdi stributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00.0%4090.0%542.9%4592.2%1063.7%5092.6%1575.4%5592.6%2079.8%6098.8%2580.6%7599.2%3088.6%90100.0%3589.2%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.
HarrisNuclearPlant5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00.0%4087.3%59.0%4594.0%1022.4%5094.8%1534.6%5594.8%2050.8%6098.7%2557.4%7599.8%3078.5%90100.0%3580.9%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response
HarrisNuclearPlant5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate00.0%1515.8%3056.4%4565.3%6079.8%7587.2%9088.7%10589.2%12093.7%13597.6%15098.0%16598.0%18098.7%195100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response HarrisNuclearPlant5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%10%20%30%40%
50%
60%70%80%
90%100%0153045607590105120135150165180195
%ofHouseholdsCompletingActivityElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHome HarrisNuclearPlant5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table5 6presentsthesummingpr oceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 6.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5Table5 7presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).
HarrisNuclearPlant5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor500responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnonparametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciplesareused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 6,Table57);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles; HarrisNuclearPlant5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterthan3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.5) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3.
0.0%10.0%20.0%
30.0%
40.0%50.0%60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.5 37.542.547.5 52.557.567.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution HarrisNuclearPlant5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bothveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,nota"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturningineach).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,usingweightingbasedupontheprobabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,CandD.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter,andsoforth.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,CandD,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother ,aretabulatedinTable5 8(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(15)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.
HarrisNuclearPlant5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Sub Zonescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. Sub Zonescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethe2mileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinSub Zonesbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoptionsavailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimefortheSubZonescomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*,isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltrip saregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance).
HarrisNuclearPlant5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenonsheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios,however,thatwasnotthecaseforthissite.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*is1:00forallscenarios.d. Note:Sinceapproximately90%ofthe2mileregion(Sub ZoneA)iscomprisedofemployeesandtransients,theTScen*valueof1:00isdictatedbythetripgenerationofthesepopulationgroupsasopposedtothetripgenerationofresidents.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersFigure5 5presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommutersandemployees/transients;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeisapproximately1hourforallscenarios.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,20%ofthepopulation(whonormallywouldhavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesforanun stagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationtime,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 9providesthetripgenerationhistogramsforstagedevacuation.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreasAppendix2toAnnexGoftheNorthCarolinaRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlan(January2012)establishesthebasicproceduresandorganizationalresponsibilitiesfortheemergencyalertandnotificationonHarrisandJordanLakes,theHaw,DeepandCapeFearRiversinadditiontoassociatedrecreationalsites,surroundingareasandotherfacilitieswithinthe10 mileEPZ.IndividualsonJordanLake,UpperCapeFear,DeepandHawRiverswillbenotifiedbytheChatha mCountyEmergencyManagementOffice,assistedbytheMoncureFireDepartment,NCWildlifeResourcesCommission,NCDepartmentofEnvironmentandNaturalResources(DENR),UnitedStatesArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE)fromB.EverettJordanLakeandDamfieldofficeandtheCommunicationsandLogisticsSectionandSpecial HarrisNuclearPlant5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Operations/AviationUnitoftheNCHighwayPatrol.IndividualsonHarrisLakewillbenotifiedbytheWakeCountyEmergencyManagement,assistedbytheWakeCountySheriff'sDepartment,CommunicationsandLogisticsSectionandSpecialOperations/AviationUnitoftheNCHighwayPatrol,ChathamCountyEmergencyManagementOfficeandNCWildlifeResourcesCommission.IndividualsontheLowerCapeFearRiverwillbenotifiedbyHarnettCountyEmergencyManagement,assistedbytheCommunicationsandLogisticsSectionandSpecialOperations/AviationUnitoftheNCHighwayPatrol.AsindicatedinTable5 2,thisstudyassumes100%notificationin45minuteswhichisconsistentwiththeFEMAREPManual.Table5 8indicatesthatalltransientswillhavemobilizedwithin1hour45minutes.Itisassumedthatthistimeframeissufficienttimeforboaters,campersan dothertransientstoreturntotheirvehiclesorlodgingfacilitiesandbegintheirevacuationtrip.
HarrisNuclearPlant5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUn stagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1157%7%0%1%21535%35%0%9%31534%34%2%24%41513%13%8%24%5155%5%15%14%6154%4%18%10%7152%2%15%5%8150%0%13%2%9150%0%8%3%10300%0%10%5%11300%0%6%1%12300%0%3%2%13150%0%1%0%14300%0%1%0%156000%0%0%0%NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionCforgoodweather. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.
HarrisNuclearPlant5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270
%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuatingAdvisory(min)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommuters HarrisNuclearPlant5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1150%0%2150%2%3150%5%4152%5%51523%60%61518%10%71515%5%81513%2%9158%3%103010%5%11306%1%12303%2%13151%0%14301%0%156000%0%*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 8)isthesameforUn stagedandStagedEvacuation.
HarrisNuclearPlant5 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUn stagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270
%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuatingAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommutersStagedResidentswithnoCommuters HarrisNuclearPlant6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingSub Zonesthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergenc y.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Adescriptionofeachscenarioisprovidedbelow:1. SummerMidweekMidday(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweatherdaytimeperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallydispersedwithintheEPZperformingdailyactivitiesandmajorworkplacesareattypicaldaytimelevels.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;summerschoolisinsession;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerdaytimelevels.2. SummerMidweekMidday(adverse):ThisscenariorepresentsanadverseweatherdaytimeperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallydispersedwithintheEPZperformingdailyactivitiesandmajorworkplacesareattypicaldaytimelevels.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;summerschoolsareinsession;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerdaytimelevels.3. SummerWeekendMidday(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweatherweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZperformingtypicalsummerweekendactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathomeorwiththeirfamilies;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweek endlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerweekendlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerweekendlevels.4. SummerWeekendMidday(adverse):Thisscenariorepresentsanadverse(rain)weatherweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZperformingtypicalsummerweekendactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathomeorwiththeirfamilies;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataverage HarrisNuclearPlant6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1summerweekendlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerweekendlevels.5. SummerMidweekandWeekendEvening(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweathermidweekandweekendeveningperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallyathomewithfewerdispersedwithintheEPZperformingeveningactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicaleveninglevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummereveninglevels.Externaltrafficisreduced.6. WinterMidweekMidday(normal):Thisscenariorepresent satypicalnormalweatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandtheworkforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesar efullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.7. WinterMidweekMidday(adverse):Thisscenariorepresentsanadverse(rain)weatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandthewor kforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesarefullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.8. WinterMidweekMidday(adverse):Thisscenariorepresentsanadverse(ice)weatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandtheworkforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesar efullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.9. WinterWeekendMidday(normal):ThisscenarioreflectsatypicalnormalweatherwinterweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZ,andtheworkforceisataweekendlevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweek endlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterweekendlevelsandrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterweekendlevels.10. WinterWeekendMidday(adverse):Thisscenarioreflectsanadverse(rain)weatherwinterweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZ,andtheworkforceisataweek endlevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence; HarrisNuclearPlant6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterweekendlevelsandrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterweekendlevels.11. WinterWeekendMidday(adverse):Thisscenarioreflectsanadverse(ice)weatherwinterweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebot hathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZ,andtheworkforceisataweekendlevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterweekendlevelsandrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterweekendlevels.12. WinterMidweekandWeekendEvening(normal):Thisscenarioreflectsatypicalnormalmidweekandweekendeveningperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarehomeandtheworkforceisatanighttimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalnighttimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwintereveninglevels.13. SpecialEvent,SummerWeekendEvening(normal):ThisscenarioreflectsaspecialeventactivitywherepeaktouristpopulationsarepresentwithintheEPZ.AssumptionsmadeareindicatedinSection3.7.ThepopulationattendingtheeventisdevelopedconsideringbothtransientsandpermanentEPZresidentswhoareinattendancetoavoiddouble countingresidents.Theremainingpermanentresidentpercentage,thosenotattendingtheevent,willbeassumedtoevacuatefromtheirresidence.Workplaceswillbestaffedattypicallevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedatpeakspecialeventlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatappropriatelevelsbasedontheeventandtimeofyear.14. RoadwayImpact,SummerMidweekMidday(normal):Theintentofthisscenarioistorepresentavarietyofconditionsthatmayimpactaroadwaysegmentsuchasconstruction,flooding,vehicleaccidents,etc.Theroadwayimpactscenarioassumedthatduringasummermidweeknormalweatherdaytimescenario,onelaneonUS 1andonelaneonUS 64wasclosedthroughoutth eEPZ.Atotalof36RegionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupingsofSubZonesconsidered.TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable6 1.TheSub ZoneconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesector basedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thecentralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesfromtheplant(RegionsR04throughR12)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR13throughR26).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,respectively.RegionsR27throughR36areidenticaltoRegionsR02andR04throughR12,respectively;however,thoseSub Zonesbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2 milere gion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.
HarrisNuclearPlant6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Atotalof14ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thus,thereareatotalof36x14=504evacuationcases.Table6 2providesisadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.ThepopulationdataprovidedinSection3andAppendixEarepeakpopulationvalu es.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeachscenario.Table6 4presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThepopulationandvehicleestimatespresentedinSection3andAppendixEarepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentages,suchthattheaveragepopulationisconsideredforeachevacuationcase.ThescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 3,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.Th epercentagespresentedinTable6 3weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof68%(thenumberofhouseholdswithatleastonecommuter)and41%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommutertha twouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.Employmen tisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedontheestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedthatonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeakduringsummerweeken dsandless(65%)duringtheweek.AsshowninAppendixE,therearemanycampgroundsandlodgingfacilitiesofferingovernightaccommodationsintheEPZ,offsetbyothertransientfacilitiesinwhicheveninguseisminimal(parksandcommunitycenters);thus,eveningtransientactivityisestimatedtobe50%forsummerand20%fo rwinter.Transientactivityonwinterweekendsisestimatedtobe40%andless(25%)duringtheweek.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 3,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheshadowregionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshadowregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 4forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:
HarrisNuclearPlant6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Onespecialevent-FourthofJulyonJordanLake-wasconsideredasScenario13.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario13,and0%forallotherscenarios.Basedondataprovidedbycountyemergencymanagementdepartments,summerschoolenrollmentisapproximately28%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearformidweek ,middayscenarios.Schoolisnotinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbusesforthetransit dependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentpopulationispresentintheEPZatalltimes.Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.
HarrisNuclearPlant6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR012 MileRadius2 MileRadiusxR025 MileRadius5 MileRadiusxxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRadiusxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR04NNW,N327°010°xxxR05NNE,NE011°056°xxR06ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR07SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR08SSW192°214°xxR09SW,WSW215°259°xxxR10260°281°xxR11W,WNW282°304°xxxR12NW305°326°xxEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR13N348°034°xxxxxxxxR14NNExxxxxxxxxR15NExxxxxxxxR16ENE035°079°xxxxxxxxxR17E,ESE080°101°xxxxxxxxR18102°124°xxxxxxxR19SE125°146°xxxxxxxxR20SSE147°191°xxxxxxxxxR21S,SSWxxxxxxxxR22192°236°xxxxxxxR23SW237°259°xxxxxxxxR24WSW,WxxxxxxxxxR25WNW260°326°xxxxxxxxxR26NW,NNW327°347°xxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR275 MileRadiusxxxxxxR28NNW,N327°010°xxxR29NNE,NE011°056°xxR30ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR31SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR32SSW192°214°xxR33SW,WSW215°259°xxxR34260°281°xxR35W,WNW282°304°xxxR36NW305°326°xxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSub Zone(s)Shelter in PlaceSub Zone(s)Evacuate HarrisNuclearPlant6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.HNPEPZSubZones HarrisNuclearPlant6 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodFourthofJulyonJordanLake14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosuresonUS 1andUS 641Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.
HarrisNuclearPlant6 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployees TransientsShadowSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic128%72%96%65%21%0%28%100%100%228%72%96%65%21%0%28%100%100%33%97%10%100%20%0%0%100%100%43%97%10%100%20%0%0%100%100%53%97%10%50%20%0%0%100%40%628%72%100%25%21%0%100%100%100%728%72%100%25%21%0%100%100%100%828%72%100%25%21%0%100%100%100%93%97%10%40%20%0%0%100%100%103%97%10%40%20%0%0%100%100%113%97%10%40%20%0%0%100%100%123%97%10%20%20%0%0%100%40%133%97%10%50%20%100%0%100%40%1428%72%96%65%21%0%28%100%100%ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees.................................................EPZemployeeswh oliveoutsidetheEPZTransients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow......................................................Residentsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTraffic.............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbysecurityroadblocks30minutesaftertheevacuationbegins.
HarrisNuclearPlant6 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadow SpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles 114,11536,5243,1142,85020,69702492286,96384,740214,11536,5243,1142,85020,69702492286,96384,74031,41249,2273244,38419,623002286,96382,16141,41249,2273244,38419,623002286,96382,16151,41249,2273242,19219,623002282,78575,791614,11536,5243,2441,09620,74708902286,96383,807714,11536,5243,2441,09620,74708902286,96383,807814,11536,5243,2441,09620,74708902286,96383,80791,41249,2273241,75419,623002286,96379,531101,41249,2273241,75419,623002286,96379,531111,41249,2273241,75419,623002286,96379,531121,41249,22732487719,623002282,78574,476131,41249,2273242,19219,6232,03302282,78577,8241414,11536,5243,1142,85020,69702492286,96384,740Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)
HarrisNuclearPlant7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover36regionswithintheHNPEPZandthe14EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTabl e7 4.Table7 5definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZinSub ZonesforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevolunt aryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendationhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithinth eimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEfortheHNPEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpermanentresidentslocatedinSub Zonesoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,areassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedtha t20percentofthosepermanentresidentsintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof198,090peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4fo rthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion(includingexternalexternaltraffic),travelingawayfromtheHNPlocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingev acuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Sub Zonescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.
HarrisNuclearPlant7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12. Sub Zonescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared.3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofth e2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 8illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthesummer,midweek,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario1).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However ,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedintheseFiguresbyathickredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.Congestiondevelopsrapidlyaroundconcentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecks.Figure7 3displayscon gestionpatternswithinthestudyareaat30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).Thereistrafficvolumeineachofthethreemajorpopulationcenters(Apex,Fuquay VarinaandHollySprings)intheEPZ,asindicatedbytheprevalen ceofcoloredlinks.Thisistobeexpectedasthepopulationdensityintheseareasishighandtherearemanyvehiclesbeginningtheirevacuationtripsfromthesecities.Theonly HarrisNuclearPlant7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1roadwaysexperiencingpronouncedtrafficcongestion(LOSF)atthistimeareHollySpringsRdnorthbound,US 64eastboundandLauraDuncanRdnorthboundattheintersectionofthesetworoads,US 64westboundandBeaverCreekRdnorthbound(transientsevacuatingfromJordanLakeStateRecreationArea)attheintersectionofthesetworoads,Par ker'sCreekRecreationAreaRdsouthboundapproachtoUS 64andSeaforthRecreationAreaRdnorthboundapproachtoUS 64(transientsevacuatingfromJordanLake).At1houraftertheATE,Figure7 4indicatesthattrafficcongestionwithinthestudyareahasintensified.AllofthemajorevacuationroutesservicingthethreepopulationcentersareexperiencingLOSFconditions.SeveralroadsintheShadowRegionarealsooperatingatLOSF,includingUS 401southboundleavingFuquay Varina,Ten TenRdeastboundleavingHollySprings,NC 55northboundleavingApex,andUS 64westboundinPittsboro.Notethatallroadwaysinthe2and5 MileRegion sarenotcongested(LOSA)atthistime.At1hourand30minutesaftertheATE,asshowninFigure7 5,trafficcongestioninthestudyareapeaks.Allroutesleavingthethreepopulationcentersareheavilycongested.Allroadswhichhaveinterchang eswithUS 1inWakeCountyarecongested.SeveralroadsintheShadowRegionareoperatingatLOSF,includingNC 55northbound,US 401southbound,Ten TenRdeastbound,andPennyRdeastbound.Thesecongestionpatternsreflectthelargenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromthethreepopulationcent erstryingtoaccessthemajorevacuationroutes-US 1,US 64,US 401,I 40,I 440andI 540-leavingthearea.Figure7 6displaysthecongestionpatternsat2hoursand30minutesaftertheATE.TrafficcongestioninApexandHollySpringsisdissipating,withonlyafewroutesoperatingatLOSF.Trafficcong estioninFuquay Varinaisalsodissipating,thoughallmajorevacuationroutesinthecityarestilloperatingatLOSF.CongestionintheShadowRegionisalsodissipating-Ten TenRdeastboundisclearing.LOSFconditionsexistatthistimealongHollySpringsRd/WalnutStattheinterchangewithUS 1/US 64,OptimistFarmRdeastbound,US 401southbound,LauraDuncanRdnorthboundandOldRaleighRdnorthbound.Overthenexthour,trafficcongestionclearsinApexandHollySprings.Figure7 7displaysthecongestionpatternsat3hoursand25minutesaftertheATE.ThelastofthecongestionintheEPZisinFuquay VarinaattheintersectionsofJuddParkwayandSunsetLakeRdwithUS 401.US 401isoperatingatLOSFsouthboundintheShadowRe gion,andLOSBnorthbound.HollySpringsRd/WalnutStattheinterchangewithUS 1/US 64isstilloperatingatLOSFintheShadowRegion.Finally,Figur e7 8displaysastudyareathatisessentiallyclearofevacuatingtraffic,at4hoursaftertheATE,whichis30minutespriortothecompletionofthetrip generation(mobilization)time.Thelastofthecongestioninth eEPZ,inFuquay Varina,clearsat3hoursand30minutesaftertheATE.
HarrisNuclearPlant7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 9throughFigure7 22.TheseFiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioco nsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 9,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegintoevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeunti ltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1throughTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall36Evacua tionRegionsandall14EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3throughTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2 Mileregionforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Theyareorganizedasfollows:TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.
HarrisNuclearPlant7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 8.Allofthecongestionislocatedbeyondthe5 mileradius;thisisreflectedintheETEstatistics: The2 mileRegion(R01)consistsofmorethan90%employeesandtransients.Thereisnocongestionwithinthisregion,whichmeansthatETEisdictatedbymobilizationti me.Assuch,the90 thpercentileETEforthisregionisequaltothe90 thpercentilemobilizationtimeforemployeesandtransients-about1:00(hr:min)onaverage. The5 mileRegion(R02)alsohasnocongestion,buthasmanymoreresidentvehiclesthanR01,whichincreasesthemobilizationtime(seeFigure5 4-mobilizationtimeislongerforresidentsthanforemployeesandtransients).The90 thpercentileETEforRegionR02isabout1:45onaverage. The90 thpercentileETEforRegionsR03(fullEPZ)andR13-R26(whichextendtotheEPZboundary)areapproximatelyanhourlonger,onaverage,duetothecongestionbeyondthe5 mileradius.The100 thpercentileETEforallRegionsandforallScenariosaretheequaltomobilizationtime.ThisfactimpliesthatthecongestionwithintheEPZdissipatespriortotheendofmobilization,asisdisplayedinFigure7 8.ComparisonofScenarios5and13inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-Fo urthofJulyfireworksonJordanLake-doesnotmateriallyimpactthe90 thpercentileETE.TheETEincreasesbyatmost15minutes.AsshowninFigure7 3throughFigure7 8anddiscussedinSection7.3,thecongestionwithintheEPZispredominantlytotheeastoftheplantnearthemajorpopulationcenters.Theadditional2,033vehiclespresentforthespecialeventarelocatedwes toftheplantandpredominantlyevacuatewestonUS 64.ThereissufficientadditionalcapacityonUS 64toservicetheseadditionalvehicles,whichexplainswhyETEarenotmateriallyaffected.ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonUS 1fromjusteastoftheinterchangewithNewHillHollemanRd(Exit89)totheinterch angewithI 40(Exit1A)andonelaneeastboundonUS 64fromNewHillOliveChapelRd/NC 751totheinterchangewithI 40(Exit1A)-causesatmosta10minuteincreaseinETE.Thisisnotamateri alchange.AsshowninFigure7 3throughFigure7 8,US 1northboundisoperatingbelowcapacity(LOSAthroughD),whilemostofUS 64eastboundisalsooperatingbelowcapacity(LOSFatsomesignalizedintersections).TherampstoUS 1havelimitedcapacityandthusmeterthetrafficenteringthemainthoroughfareofUS 1.Asaresult,thereisunusedcapacityonUS 1forallnon roadwayimpactscenarios.Thus,closingalanedoesnothaveanimpact.Inaddition,thereareotheralternateroutes-mostnotablyNC 55northboundandNC 540Tolleastboundwhichhaveavailablecapacity.SomevehiclesrerouteontotheseroadwaysasaresultofthelaneclosuresonUS 1andUS 64,offsettinganysubstantialincreaseinETE.NUREG/CR 7002recommendsthattheETEstudyconsiderpotentialenhancementsthatcouldimproveETE.AccordingtotheInstituteofNuclearPowerOperations(INPO)timelineforthe HarrisNuclearPlant7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1March2011accidentattheFukushimaDaiichiPowerStation,nearly18hourselapsedbetweenthelossofpoweratthesiteandthefirstreleasetotheatmosphere.The90 thpercentileETEforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)islessthan4hoursforallscenarios.ThepossiblecountermeasurestoreduceETEare: Reducethenumberofvehiclesontheroadbyeducatingthepublictousefewervehiclestoevacuate.Thisisverydifficulttoimplementasevacueesareunlikelytoleaveasignificanteconomicassetsuchasapersonalvehiclebehind. Usecontrafloworreverse laning.Thistechniqueissomanpowerandequipmentintensive,90percentofevacueeswillhavealreadylefttheEPZbythetimecontraflowisestablished.Assuch,ETEbenefitswouldbeminimal.Also,contraflowisasignificantliabilityinth atvehiclesaretravelingthewrongwayonaroad.Mostoffsiteagenciesarehesitanttousecontraflowforthisreasonalone. Identifyspecialtreatmentsatcriticalintersections-i.e.ifnorthboundandeastboundarebothviableevacuationdirectionsfromtheplant,conesandbarricadescouldbeusedtochannelizetheintersectionsuchthatonetrafficstreamisdirectednorthboundandtheothereastboundtoeliminateanyvehicleconflictattheintersectionandkeeptheintersectionflowingcontinuously.ThisisalsomanpowerandequipmentdependentandwillhavelittleimpactonETE.7.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3andTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEcompiledfortheconcurrent(un staged)andstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR27throughR36arethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR02andR04throughR12,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustshowthattheETEforthe2mil eregioncanbereducedwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheregionbetween2milesand5miles.Inallcases,asshowninthesetables,theETEforthe2mileregionisunchangedwhenastagedevacuationisimplemented.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,thereisnocongestionwithinthe2and5 mileregions.Inaddition,thecongestionbeyond5milesdoesnotextendupstreamtotheextentthatitpenetratestowithin2or5milesoftheHNP.Consequently,evacueesfromwithinthe2 mileregionareunimpeded.Therefore,stagingtheevacuati onprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregion.Whilefailingtoprovideassistancetoevacueesfromwithin2milesoftheHPP,stagingproducesanegativeimpactontheETEforthoseevacuatingfromwithinthe5 milearea.AcomparisonofETEbetweenRegionsR02andR04throughR12withRegionsR27throughR36revealsthatstagingretardsthe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthoseinthe2to5 mileareaby5minutes(seeTable7 1)forsomecases.ThisextendingofETEisduetothedelayinbeginningtheevacuationtrip,experiencedbythosewhoshelter.Insummary,thestagedevacuationoptionprovidesnobenefitsandadverselyimpactssomeevacueeslocatedbeyond2milesfromtheHNP.
HarrisNuclearPlant7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain Ice* SpecialEven t FourthofJulyonJordanLake* RoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonUS 1andUS 64* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhiletheseScenariosaredesigned,inaggregat e,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(10)forrainapply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andicearenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(8)and(11)foriceapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellingto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewind HarrisNuclearPlant7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1direction).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation-fromN,NNE,NE-orindegrees.* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.TheapplicabledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(RegionR01) To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR12) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R13throughR26)* EnterTable7 5andidentifytheap plicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthedistancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromtheHNP.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionofth eplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* IdentifytherowinthistablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes
.
HarrisNuclearPlant7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10 that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionisfromthe180.* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea5 mileradiusanddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 5andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary"forwinddirectionfrom180andreadRegionR20inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR20.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR20;itcontainstheETEvalueof2:25.
HarrisNuclearPlant7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R032:503:002:402:502:402:503:003:102:402:503:052:402:402:552 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR041:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R051:301:301:301:301:451:301:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R061:201:201:151:151:301:201:201:201:151:151:151:401:251:20R071:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R081:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R092:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R101:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:501:50R111:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R121:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:151:151:151:301:251:205 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR132:002:001:401:401:552:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:452:00R142:002:001:401:401:552:052:052:051:451:451:452:001:502:00R151:551:551:351:351:501:551:551:551:401:401:402:001:451:55R161:551:551:351:351:502:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:401:55R171:501:501:351:351:502:002:002:001:401:401:402:001:401:50R181:501:501:301:301:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R191:501:501:351:351:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R202:252:302:202:252:202:302:352:452:202:252:302:202:202:30R212:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R222:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R232:352:402:302:352:302:352:402:502:302:352:402:302:302:40 HarrisNuclearPlant7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR242:402:552:352:452:352:452:553:052:352:452:552:352:352:50R252:553:152:503:052:453:003:153:302:503:003:202:452:503:00R263:003:202:553:152:503:053:203:402:553:103:302:502:553:00StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R281:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R291:301:301:301:301:451:351:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R301:201:201:201:201:301:251:251:251:201:201:201:401:251:20R311:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R321:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R332:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R341:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:50R351:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R361:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:201:201:201:301:251:20 HarrisNuclearPlant7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend MidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend Weekend MidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:402 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R094:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R104:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R114:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R124:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:355 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR134:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R144:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R154:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R164:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R174:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R184:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R194:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R204:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R214:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R224:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R234:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40 HarrisNuclearPlant7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1R244:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R254:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R264:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R284:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R294:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R304:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R314:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R324:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R334:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R344:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R364:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35 HarrisNuclearPlant7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR041:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R051:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R061:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R071:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R081:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R091:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R101:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R111:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R121:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R281:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R291:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R301:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R311:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R321:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R331:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R341:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R351:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R361:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05 HarrisNuclearPlant7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR044:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R064:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R074:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R084:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R094:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R104:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R114:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R124:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R284:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R294:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R314:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R324:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R334:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R344:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R354:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R364:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30 HarrisNuclearPlant7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR012 MileRadius2 MileRadiusxR025 MileRadius5 MileRadiusxxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRadiusxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR04NNW,N327°010°xxxR05NNE,NE011°056°xxR06ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR07SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR08SSW192°214°xxR09SW,WSW215°259°xxxR10260°281°xxR11W,WNW282°304°xxxR12NW305°326°xxEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR13N348°034°xxxxxxxxR14NNExxxxxxxxxR15NExxxxxxxxR16ENE035°079°xxxxxxxxxR17E,ESE080°101°xxxxxxxxR18102°124°xxxxxxxR19SE125°146°xxxxxxxxR20SSE147°191°xxxxxxxxxR21S,SSWxxxxxxxxR22192°236°xxxxxxxR23SW237°259°xxxxxxxxR24WSW,WxxxxxxxxxR25WNW260°326°xxxxxxxxxR26NW,NNW327°347°xxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR275 MileRadiusxxxxxxR28NNW,N327°010°xxxR29NNE,NE011°056°xxR30ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR31SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR32SSW192°214°xxR33SW,WSW215°259°xxxR34260°281°xxR35W,WNW282°304°xxxR36NW305°326°xxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSub Zone(s)Shelter in PlaceSub Zone(s)Evacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology HarrisNuclearPlant7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.HNPShadowRegion HarrisNuclearPlant7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat1Hour30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2Hours30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat3Hours25MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%
HarrisNuclearPlant7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%
HarrisNuclearPlant7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%
HarrisNuclearPlant7 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%
HarrisNuclearPlant7 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario9)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%
HarrisNuclearPlant7 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario12)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%
HarrisNuclearPlant7 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure721.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03Figure722.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Evening,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario14)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%
HarrisNuclearPlant8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles(buses,ambulances,andwheelchairtransportvehicles).Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschoolsandmedica lfacilities;and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepresentsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilit yTheseactivitiesconsumetime.Basedondiscussionwiththeoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbusmobilizationtimewillaverageapproximately90minutesextendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Thelocationofbusdepotsimpactsthetimetotravelfromthebusdepotstothefacilitiesbeingevacuated.Locationsofbusdepotswerenotidentifiedinthisstudy.Rather,theoffsiteagencieswereaskedtofactorthelocationofthedepotsandthedistancetotheEPZintotheestimateofmobilizationtime.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizat ionactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointh eirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentpublicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsoftheHNPEPZindicatesthatschoolchildren(includesprivateschoolsandchildcarecenters)willbeevacuatedtorelocationschoolswheretheycanbepickedupbytheirparents.AsdiscussedinSection2,thisstudyassumesarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtorelocationschools.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenw illbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.Itisassumedthatchildrenatday carecentersarepickedupbyparentsorguardiansandthatthe HarrisNuclearPlant8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1timetoperformthisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions* EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtothereceptioncenters8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailabl eatthetimetheevacuationisadvised.Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.Table8 1presentsestimatesoftransit dependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransit dependentpersonswillevacuat ebyride sharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedaridewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransit dependentpersonsisbasedonanestimateofaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transi tvehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60childrenonaverage(roughlyequivalentto40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthenumberof"adultseats"takenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverag eloadfactoranticipatedis(27/40)x100=68percent.Thus,iftheactualdemandforserviceexceedstheestimatesofTable8 1by50percent,thedemandforservicecanstillbeaccommoda tedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.
HarrisNuclearPlant8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor3,419people.Therefore,atotalof114busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorride share,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheHNPEPZ:Where,A=PercentofhouseholdswithcommutersC=PercentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuterThesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(2.00avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(1.9%)willevacuatebypublictransitorride share.Theterm36,511(numberofhouseholds)x0.019x2.00,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(19.0%),whoareathome,equal(1.86 1).ThenumberofHHwherethecomm uterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(36,511x0.190x0.68x0.59),as68%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,59%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(51.5%),whoareathome,equal(3.01-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto36,511x0.515x(0.68x0.59)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehi cles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.Theestimateoftransit dependentpopulationinTable8 1farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransit dependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbythecounties(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR 6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajorityofthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency.
HarrisNuclearPlant8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 2presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolsandchildcarecenterswithintheEPZforthe2011 2012schoolyear.Thisinformationwasprovidedbythelocalcountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThecolumninTable8 2entitled"BusesRequired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunde rthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(asdiscussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR 7002),theestimateofbusesrequiredforschoolevacuationdoesnotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsandchildcarecentersand50formiddleandhighschools.* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacuateintheirprivatevehicles.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.Implementationofaprocesstoconfirmindividualschooltransportationneedspriortobusdispatchmayimprovebusutilization.Inthisway,thenumberofbusesdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Theneedforbuseswouldbereducedbyanyhighschoolstudentswhohaveevacuatedusingprivateautomobiles(ifpermittedbyschoolauthorities).Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuateschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveacces stoprivatevehiclesortoride sharing.Table8 3presentsalistoftherelocationschoolsforeachevacuatingschoolandchildcarecenterintheEPZ.Studentswillbetransportedtotheserelocationschoolswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.8.3 MedicalFacilityDemandTable8 4presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.896peoplehavebeenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,thesefacilities.Sincetheaveragenumberofpatien tsasthesefacilitiesfluctuatesoften,thecapacity,currentcensusandbreakdownofambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpatientsforeachfacilitywereprovidedbythecountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThetransportationrequirementsforthemedicalfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable8 4.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingth at2patientscanbeaccommodatedperambulancetrip;thenumberofwheelchairbusrunsassumes15wheelchairspertrip;thenumberofwheelchairvanrunsassumes4wheelchairspertrip;thenumberofminivanrunsassumes5patientspertrip;thenumberofpassengercarrunsassumes4patientspertripandthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientspertrip.
HarrisNuclearPlant8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetimeoftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhatinefficient,orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,theETEforthetransit dependentpopulationwascalculatedforbothaonewavetransitevacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandthisdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.Itisassumedth atthereareenoughdriversavailabletomanallresourceslistedinTable8 5.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransit dependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinapositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyaredispatchedtothevariousroutesdescribedbelow.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortransittripsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure8 1presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure8 1.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Basedondiscussionswiththecountyemergencymanagementagencies,driverswouldlikelyrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransit dependentfacilitiesforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergenc ywithnoobservableindicationbeforethefact.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerinadverseweather-100minuteswhenraining,110minuteswithice.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)Basedondiscussionswiththeoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof15minutes(20minutesforrainand25minutesforice)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapick uproute(transit dependentbusroutes)estimationoftraveltimemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpick uppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:s=v 2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservice HarrisNuclearPlant8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1passengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s,wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespick uptimeperbusrunimplies30st opsperrun,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;totalloadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain,50minutesinice.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbytheEPZcountyemergencymanagementagenciesandaresummarizedinTable8 5.Alsoincludedinthetablearethenumberofbusesneededtoevacuateschoolsandchildcarecenters,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpopulationandhomeboundspecialneedspersons(discussedbelowinSection8.5).Thesenumbersin dicatetherearesufficientbus,wheelchairtransport,passengercarandambulanceresourcesavailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave.Therearenotenoughminivanstoevacuateinasinglewave.Therearesurplusbusesandpassengercarsavailabletosupplementtheshortageinminivanssuchthatallpeopleca nevacuateinasinglewave.Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus15minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusrout esalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriateschoolreceptioncenter.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.Eachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentoth eDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 6(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,100to105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:
HarrisNuclearPlant8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsandchildcarecentersintheEPZisshowninTable8 7throughTable8 9forschoolandchildcarecenterevacuation,andinTable8 11throughTable8 13forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransit dependentpersons,whicharediscussedlater.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedistancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundarytothereloca tionschoolwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof45mph,41mph,and36mphforgoodweather,rainandice,respectively.SpeedswerereducedinTable8 7throughTable8 9andinTable8 11throughTable8 13to45mph(41mphforrain-10%decrease-and36mphforice-20%decrease)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhichexceed45mph,astheschoolbusspeedlimitinNorthCarolinais45mph.Table8 7(goodweather),Table8 8(rain)andTable8 9(ice)presentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)Th eelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)Theelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachestherelocationschool.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E(Forexample:90min.+15+7=1:55forMoncureElementarySchool,ingoodweather).TheevacuationtimetotherelocationschoolisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityE F(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevac uationtime.NotetheaveragesinglewaveETEforschoolsandchildcarecentersislessthanthe90 thpercentileETEforRegionR03forthegeneralpopulation.Therefore,theevacuationofschoolsandchildcarecenterswillnotimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmakingasthegeneralpopulationtakeslongertoevacuate.EvacuationofTransit DependentPopulationThebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransit dependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure5 4(ResidentswithnoCommuters),90percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,approximately120minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Sub ZonesE,FandGhavehightransit dependentpopulationsandrequiremorebusesthananyotherSub Zones(Table8 10).Assuch,separateroutescircu latingApex,HollySpringsandFuquay Varina(Sub ZonesE,FandG,respectively)
HarrisNuclearPlant8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1havebeenidentified.OtherroutesservicingSub Zoneswithalowertransit dependentpopulationwerealsoidentified.Thoserouteswithmultiplebuseshavebeendesignedsuchthatindividualbusesorgroupsofbusesaredispatchedusingvaryingheadways(5to30minutes),asshowninTable8 11throughTable8 13.Theuseofbusheadwaysensuresthatthosepeoplewhotakelongertomobilizewillbepickedup.Mobilizationtimeis10minuteslongerinra in(20minutesinice)toaccountforslowertravelspeedsandreducedroadwaycapacity.Thosebusesservicingthetransit dependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpick uproutes,thenproceedoutofth eEPZtotheirrespectiveReceptionCenter.Thecountyemergencyplansdonotidentifypredefinedbusroutesorpick uppointstoservicethetransit dependentpopulationintheEPZ.The10busroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure8 2anddescribedinTable8 10weredesignedbyKLDtoservicethemajo rroutesthrougheachSub Zone.Itisassumedthatresidentswillwalktothenearestmajorroadwayandflagdownapassingbus,andthattheycanarriveattheroadwaywithinthe120minutebusmobilizationtime(goodweather).Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof30minutes(goodweather)isestimatedfor30individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwitheachstop.Longerpickuptimesof40minutesand50m inutesareusedforrainandice,respect ively.Thetraveldistancealongtherespectivepick uprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoftware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEV,usingtheaforementionedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table8 11throughTable8 13presentthetransit dependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweather,rainandice,respectively.Forexample,theETEforthefirstgroupof3busesservicingthesouthernportionoftheEPZ(Route40-NC 42spanningSub ZonesG,H,Ian dK)iscomputedas120+27+30=3:00forgoodweather(roundeduptonearest5minutes).Here,27minutesisthetimetotravel20.2milesat45.0mph,theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelforthisroutestartingat120minutes.TheETEforasecondwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers;however,thisisunlikelygiventheampletransportationresourcesspreadbetweenthefourcountiesasshowninTable8 5.Activity:TraveltoRelocationSchoolsandReceptionCenters(E F)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytotherelocationschoolsandreceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtothereceptioncenter.TherelocationschoolsandreceptioncentersaremappedinFigure10 1.Foraone waveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwo waveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsider edseparately,sinceitcouldexceedtheETEforthegeneralpopulation.Assumedbusspeedsof45mph,41mph,and36mphforgoodweather,rain,andice,respectively,w illbeappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthe HarrisNuclearPlant8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1transit dependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(F G)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(G C)ThebusesassignedtoreturntotheEPZtoperforma"secondwave"evacuationoftransit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransit dependentpeoplewhomobilizedmorequickly.Thefirstwaveoftransit dependentpeopledepartthebus,andthebusthenreturnstotheEPZ,travelstoitsrouteandproceedstopickupmor etransit dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltimetothereceptioncenter.Thesecond waveETEforRoute40(NC 42spanningSub ZonesG,H,IandK)iscomputedasfollowsfo rgoodweather:* Busarrivesatreceptioncenterat3:13ingoodweather(3:00toexitEPZ+13minutetraveltimetoreceptioncenter).* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10minuterest:15minutes.* BusreturnstoEPZ,drivestothestartoftherouteandco mpletessecondroute:13minutes(equaltotraveltimetoreceptioncenter)+27minutes(equaltotraveltimetostartofroute,i.e.,20.2miles@45mph)+27minutes(equaltotraveltimeforsecondroute)=67minutes* Buscompletespick upsalongroute:30minutes.* BusexitsEP Zattime3:00+0:13+0:15+1:07+0:30=5:05(roundedtonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheETEforthecompletionofthesecondwaveforalltransit dependentbusroutesareprovidedinTable8 11throughTable8 13.NotetheaveragesinglewaveETEforthetransit dependentpopulationisgreaterthanthe90 thpercentileETEforRegionR03forthegeneralpopulation.Therefore,theevacuationoftransit dependentscouldimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmakingandshouldbeconsidered.TheaverageETEforatwo waveevacuationoftransit dependentpeoplealsoexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90 thpercentileandcouldalsoimpactprotectactiondecisionmaking.Therelocationoftransit dependentevacueesfromthereceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.EvacuationofMedicalFacilitiesTheevacuationofthesefacilitiesissimilartoschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof30patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythepatients.Wheelchairbusescanaccommodate15patients;wheelchairvans-4patients;ambulances-2patients;minivans-5patients,passengerscars-4patients.
HarrisNuclearPlant8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* Basedonfeedbackfromthecountyemergencymanagementagencies,loadingtimesof2minutes,7minutes,and15minutesperpatientareusedforambulatory,wheelchairbound,andbedriddenpatients,respectively.Thevehiclesownedby/availabletoeachmedicalfacilitywereprovidedbythecountyemergencymanagementagencies.Itisassumedthatfacilitieswithahighwheelchair boundpopulationwillevacuateusingawheelchairbusandthatwheelchairvanswillevacuatethosefacilitieswithasmallerwheelchair boundpopulation.ItisassumedthatWakeCountymedicalfacilitieswithalowambulatorycensuswillevacuateviaminivansandpassengercars,sincethosearethetransportationassetsthosefacilitieshaveon site.Usingthedataprovided,theseassumptions,andtheaforementionedvehiclecapacities,Table8 4indicatesthat17busruns,15wheelchairbusruns,18wheelchairvanruns,27minivanruns,10passengercarrunsand56ambulancerunsareneededtoserviceallofthemedi calfacilitiesintheEPZ.Aspreviouslydiscussedtheshortfallinminivanscanbesupplementedbythesurplusbusandpassengercarresourcesavailable.Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverages90minutesingoodweather(100inrain,110inice).Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.Table8 14throughTable8 16summarizetheETEformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZforgoodweather,rain,andice.ThedistancesfromthemedicalfacilitiestotheEPZboundarywereestimatedusingGISsoftware.AveragespeedsoutputbythemodelforScenario6(Scenario7forrainandScenario8forice)Region3,cappedat45mph(41mphforrainand36mphforice),areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundaryiscomputedbydividingthedistancetotheEPZboundarybytheaveragetravelspeed.TheETEisthesumofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelchairbuses/vans,minivans,passengercarsandambulancesatcapacityisassumedsuchthatthemaximumloadingtimesforbuses(maximumcapacityof30times2minutesperpassenger),minivans(5times2),passengercars(4times2),wheelchairbuses(15times7),wheelchairvans(4times7),andambulances(2times15)are60,10,8,105,28and30mi nutes,respectively.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,thecalculationofETEforSanfordHealth&Rehabwith41ambulatoryresidentsduringgoodweatheris:ETE:90+30x2+3=153min.or2:35roundedtothenearest5minutes.Itisassumedthatmedi calfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughthereceptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.AverageETEformedicalfacilitiesarelessthanthe90 thpercentileETEfortheevacuationofthegeneralpopulationfromRegionR03andwillnotimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmaking.
HarrisNuclearPlant8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.5 SpecialNeedsPopulationThecountyemergencymanagementagencieshaveacombinedregistrationfortransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Basedondataprovidedbythecounties,thereareanestimated19homeboundspecialneedspeople(14ambulatory,4wheelchair boundand1bedridden)withintheChathamCountyportionoftheEPZ;12homeboundspecialneedspeople(8ambulatory,3wheelchair boundand1bedridden)withintheHarnettCountyportionoftheEPZ;3homeboundspecialneedspeople(allambulatory)withintheLeeCountyportionoftheEPZand69homeboundspecialneedspeople(50ambulatory,12wheelchair boundand7bedridden)withinth eWakeCountyportionoftheEPZ.Thisresultsin75ambulatorypersons,19wheelchair boundpersonsand9bedriddenpersonsforatotalspecialneedspopulationof103people.Parentsareencouragedtoregistertheirchildreniftheywouldneedarideatanytimetoevacuate.Assuch,itisassumedth atlatchkeychildren,childrenwhoareathomewhilebothparentsareatwork,areincludedinthisdata.ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsTable8 17summarizestheETEforhomeboundspecialneedspeople.Thetableiscategorizedbytypeofvehiclerequiredandthenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesintoconsiderationthedeploymentofmultiplevehicles(notfilledtocapacity)toreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.DuetothelimitationsondrivingforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersons,itassumedtheywillbepickedupfromtheirhomes.Furthermore,itisconservativelyassumedthatambulatoryandwheel chairboundspecialneedshouseholdsarespaced3milesapartandbedriddenhouseholdsarespaced5milesapart.Vanandbusspeedsapproximate20mphbetweenhouseholdsandambulancespeedsap proximate30mphingoodweather(10%slowerinrain,20%slowerinice).Mobilizationtimesof90minuteswereused(100minutesforrain,and110minutesforice).ThelastHHisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthenetwork wideaveragespeed,cappedat45mp h(41mphforrainand36mphforice),afterthelastpickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.ETEiscomputedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtimeatfirsthousehold,traveltosubsequenthouseholds,loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexampl e,assumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperHHimpliesthat75ambulatoryhouseholdsneedtobeserviced.Whileonly3busesareneededfromacapacityperspective,if10busesaredeployedtoservicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequireatmost8stops.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:1. Assume10busesaredeployed,eachwithatmost8stops,toserviceatotalof75HH.2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:90minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirs tpickup:5minutesc. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:7@9minutes(3miles@20mph)=63minutesd. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:7@5minutes=35minutese. TraveltoEPZboundary:12minutes(5miles@24.5mph).
HarrisNuclearPlant8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ETE:90+5+63+35+12=3:25roundedtothenearest5minutesTheaverageETEforhomeboundspecialneedspopulationiscomparabletothe90 thpercentileETEforevacuationofthegeneralpopulationinRegionR03andwillnotimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmaking.
HarrisNuclearPlant8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter/RelocationSchoolEBusExitsRegion FBusArrivesatReceptionCenter/RelocationSchoolGBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationServiceActivity A BDriverMobilization B CTraveltoFacilityortoPick upRoute C DPassengersBoardtheBus D EBusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary E FBusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenter/RelocationSchoolOutsidetheEPZ F GPassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreak Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time(SubsequentWave)
HarrisNuclearPlant8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes HarrisNuclearPlant8 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimatedNo.ofHouseholdsSurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHH withCommutersSurveyPercentHH withNonReturning CommutersTotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharing PercentagePeopleRequiringPublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiringPublicTransit012012102,9612.001.863.0136,5111.9%19.0%51.5%68%59%6,83850%3,4193.3%
HarrisNuclearPlant8 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesSubZoneSchoolNameEnrollment BusesRequiredEA.V.BaucomElementarySchool96214EApexElementarySchool67010EApexMiddleSchool1,08622EApexSeniorHighSchool2,30046ELufkinRoadMiddleSchool1,01021EOliveChapelElementarySchool93314ESt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool70411EThalesAcademy3197FHollyGroveElementarySchool98014FHollyGroveMiddleSchool1,13623FHollyRidgeElementarySchool72411FHollyRidgeMiddleSchool1,03321FHollySpringsElementarySchool1,12117FHollySpringsHighSchool2,10843FNewSchool,Inc.Montessori1803GFuquay VarinaMiddleSchool90319GFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool1,92539GHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool86713GLincolnHeightsElementarySchool4747GSouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool1193MMoncureElementarySchool2855S.R.DeepRiverElementarySchool63810S.R.LafayetteElementarySchool78012SchoolSubtotal 21,257385SubZoneChildCareCenterNameEnrollment BusesRequiredEAllAboutKids1252EApexBaptistChurchPreschool1743EApexChildCarewithDebbie51EApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool782EGraceChurchPreschool822EHopeChapelPreschool752EWoodhavenBaptistPre school1022EEarthAngel'sDayCareHome81EEdithFranklinDayCareHome51ELori'sFamilyDayCare21 HarrisNuclearPlant8 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SubZoneSchoolNameEnrollment BusesRequiredEPlayCare61EVickie'sDayCareHome51EGoddardSchoolApex1202EGrowingYearsLearningCenter1002EJudy'sHomeCare51EKarin' 4Kidz81EMoravicFamilyDayCare51FHollySpringsLearningCenter1593FHollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation882FHomeAwayFromHomeChildcare51FKiddieAcademyofHollySprings1453FKris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare51FLittleDreamersPreschool1112FSisters'ChildCareServices201FStellaLowerySmallDayCareHome51FSunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool661FTheCarolinaSchool501GAMother'sLove51GChildcareNetwork-Fuquay Varina1132GFuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare982GFuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith1803GGingerbreadLittleversity Downtown992GLittleAngelsPreparatory501GLittleMiracles41GReadyOrNotHereIGrow922GShiningStarChildCareHome51GSouthWakePreschool&Academy371GSpinningWheelsLearningCenter241GVanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome71ChildCareCenterSubtotal 2,27360TOTAL: 23,530445 HarrisNuclearPlant8 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.RelocationSchoolsforSchoolsandChildCareCentersSchool/ChildCareCenterRelocationSchoolDeepRiverElementarySchoolBenjaminT.BullockElementarySchoolSt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchoolCardinalGibbonsHighSchoolFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchoolGarnerHighSchoolAMother'sLoveChildcareNetwork-Fuquay VarinaFuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCareFuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaithGingerbreadLittleversity DowntownLittleAngelsPreparatoryLittleMiraclesReadyOrNotHereIGrowShiningStarChildCareHomeSouthWakePreschool&AcademySouthernWakeAcademyHighSchoolSpinningWheelsLearningCenterVanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHomeLafayetteElementarySchoolHarnettCentralMiddleSchoolHollyGroveMiddleSchoolKnightdaleHighSchoolHollyRidgeElementarySchoolHollyRidgeMiddleSchoolHollySpringsElementarySchoolA.V.BaucomElementarySchoolLeesvilleHighSchoolApexMiddleSchoolLufkinRoadMiddleSchoolOliveChapelElementarySchoolFuquay VarinaMiddleSchoolMillbrookHighSchoolHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchoolLincolnHeightsElementarySchoolMoncureElementarySchoolNorthwoodHighSchoolApexElementarySchoolSandersonHighSchoolAllAboutKidsApexBaptistChurchPreschoolApexChildCarewithDebbieApexSeniorHighSchoolApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschoolEarthAngel'sDayCareHome HarrisNuclearPlant8 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1School/ChildCareCenterRelocationSchoolEdithFranklinDayCareHomeGoddardSchoolApexSandersonHighSchoolGraceChurchPreschoolGrowingYearsLearningCenterHopeChapelPreschoolJudy'sHomeCareKarin' 4KidzLori'sFamilyDayCareMoravicFamilyDayCarePlayCareThalesAcademyVickie'sDayCareHomeWoodhavenBaptistPre schoolHollyGroveElementarySchoolSoutheastRaleighHighSchoolHollySpringsHighSchoolHollySpringsLearningCenterHollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducationHomeAwayFromHomeChildcareKiddieAcademyofHollySpringsKris'HomeSweetHomeDaycareLittleDreamersPreschoolNewSchool,Inc.MontessoriSisters'ChildCareServicesStellaLowerySmallDayCareHomeSunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschoolTheCarolinaSchool HarrisNuclearPlant8 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemandSubZoneFacilityNameCapacity CurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedridden BusRunsWheelchairBusRunsWheel chairVanRunsMinivanRunsCarRuns Ambu lanceLEECOUNTYMEDICALFACILITIESJSanfordHealth&Rehab1371374169272500014LeeCountySubtotal:1371374169272500014WAKECOUNTYMEDICALFACILITIESABrown'sFamilyCareHome66600100000AJamesRestHome403828100103000CMurchisonResidentialCorpHome33300000010EAzaleaGardensMentalHealth66600000200EBrookridgeAssistedLiving555240120203000EFavourHome66600000020EKingsGroupHomeforChildren44400000010ELockleyRoadHome66600000200EMasonStreetGroupHome66600000200EOliveHome66600000200ERexRehab&NursingCenterofApex107902040301300015ESeagravesFamilyCareHome64400000100EShackletonHome33300000010ESpringArborofApex766647190205000 HarrisNuclearPlant8 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SubZoneFacilityNameCapacity CurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedridden BusRunsWheelchairBusRunsWheel chairVanRunsMinivanRunsCarRuns Ambu lanceEWakeMedApexHealthplex 11212741101001FAventFerryHome66600000200FBassLakeHome66600000020FCountryLaneGroupHome66600000200FHerbertReidHome55500000100FHickoryAvenueHome66600000200FSt.Mark'sManor99900000200FTrotter'sBluff66600000200GCreekwayHome66600000200GEvans WalstonHome33300000010GFuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly80626020201000GHopeHouse44400000010GKintonCourtHome16161600000400GLifeSkillsIndependentCare#144400000100GMim'sFamilyCareHome62200000010GWakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility363502015005008GWindsorPointContinuingCare300275140100355700018WakeCountySubtotal:84175947120781151018271042TOTAL:978896512276108171518271056Notes:1Thisfacilityisastand aloneEmergencyDepartmentwithaconstantlychangingbreakdownofpatients.Anaverageofthe%breakdownofothermedicalfacilitieswasapplied HarrisNuclearPlant8 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceBusesWheelchair BusesWheelchair VansMinivansPassengerCarsAmbulances MedevacHelicopterResourcesAvailableWakeCountyPublicSchoolSystem883WakeCountyEMSApex3WakeCountyEMSFuquay Varina2WakeCountyEMSHollySprings2EasternWakeandCaryAreaEMS139WakeMedCriticalCare201RexHealthcare4AventFerryHome1AzaleaGardensMentalHealth1BassLakeHome1BrookridgeAssistedLiving2CountryLaneGroupHome1CreekwayHome1Evans WalstonHome1FavourHome4Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly1HerbertReidHome1HickoryAvenueHome1HopeHouse1KingsGroupHomeforChildren4KintonCourtHome2LifeSkillsIndependentCare#11LockleyRoadHome1MasonStreetGroupHome1Mim'sFamilyCareHome1MurchisonResidentialCorpHome1OliveHome1 HarrisNuclearPlant8 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TransportationResourceBusesWheelchair BusesWheelchair VansMinivansPassengerCarsAmbulances MedevacHelicopterSeagravesFamilyCareHome1ShackletonHome1SpringArborofApex1St.Mark'sManor1Trotter'sBluff1WindsorPointContinuingCare1ChathamTransit131122ChathamCountyEMSStationsFirstHealth8MoncureElementarySchool5LeeCounty1308CentralCarolinaHospital(CCH)1CountyofLeeTransitSystem(COLTS)1518SanfordHealth&Rehab1HarnettCounty2572HarnettAreaTransitSystem1AndersonCreekEmergencyServices3ErwinFireRescue2CoatsGroveFireDepartment2TOTAL: 1,27719351917931ResourcesNeededSchoolsandChildCareCenters(Table8 2): 443MedicalFacilities(Table8 4): 171518271056TransitDependentPopulation(Table8 10): 114HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5): 1055TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 58415242710610 HarrisNuclearPlant8 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1ApexElementarySchool1276,1275,757,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,6012ApexSeniorHighSchool,Judy'sHomeCare1018,1450,1203ApexMiddleSchool319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,6014A.V.BaucomElementarySchool694,1282,710,669,665,660,325,326,327,396,15786LufkinRoadMiddleSchool447,60,692,6017OliveChapelElementarySchool296,299,1541,1542,1539,1544,434,1543,1343,1532,15318St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool1010,291,1277,292,1276,294,319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60110HollyGroveElementarySchool,HollyGroveMiddleSchool,HollySpringsHighSchool,HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare156,140,1319,21,33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60111HollyRidgeElementarySchool,HollyRidgeMiddleSchool555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,525,51112HollySpringsElementarySchool439,555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,525,51113SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool,SouthWakePreschool&Academy431,1032,1573,1033,1257,1254,1256,1255,125814NewSchool,Inc.MontessoriSunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool,StellaLowerySmallDayCareHome50,1463,51,52,790,520,522,524,525,51115Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool,ReadyOrNotHereIGrow,VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome1031,1253,424,226,1574,20216Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool957,226,1574,20217LincolnHeightsElementarySchool894,228,959,204,203,1030,226,1574,20218MoncureElementarySchool74,261,770,771,77219HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool789,47,1462,1461,46,44,43,126120ThalesAcademy,ApexChildCarewithDebbie1450,1018,585,1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,60140TransitDependentSouthernEPZ872,873,874,875,807,866,809,808,810,811,839,840,841,842 HarrisNuclearPlant8 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary41TransitDependentEasternEPZ31,32,33,21,35,435,1264,615,431,1032,1573,1033,1257,1254,1256,1255,1258,126342TransitDependentNorthernEPZ128,641,129,130,466,1024,1598,1025,135,620,65543TransitDependentApex315,314,306,299,303,304,1280,694,297,703,1378,585,1018,1450,120,587,122,123,1582,672,126,326,325,660,665,669,710,1282,694,702,294,319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60144TransitDependentHollySprings439,441,1036,443,444,25,26,24,30,31,32,33,21,35,438,1320,1321,439,555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,525,51145TransitDependentFuquay Varina957,958,229,1250,228,1504,957,226,1030,203,204,959,228,1250,229,1100,1099,1499,1249,1501,1502,1575,20246TransitDependentSub ZonesA,B278,632,436,282,283,235,239,241,243,244,245,246,249,251,128,433,1539,1544,434,1543,1343,1532,153147TransitDependentSub ZonesC,D1318,156,140,1319,21,33,3248TransitDependSub ZoneJ1580,913,915,914,916,918,917,91949TransitDependentSub ZoneM281,280,279,277,27550MajorEvacuationRouteNC 540TollNB1551,1346,1345,1545,1344,1546,1543,1343,1532,1531,1533,1568,1342,1341,1338,1337,134051MajorEvacuationRouteUS 64EB641,128,433,1539,1544,434,127,1584,1593,126,672,1582,123,122,587,120,119,116,1011,583,58452MajorEvacuationRouteUS 64WB128,641,129,130,466,1024,1598,1025,135,620,655,61853MajorEvacuationRouteUS 1NB76,1138,73,72,1557,1555,1560,582,1552,71,690,759,691,1583,692,60154MajorEvacuationRouteUS 1SB76,579,577,575,10,6,1,592,22,78,630,83,8455MajorEvacuationRouteNC 42WB872,873,874,875,807,866,809,808,810,811,839,840,84156MajorEvacuationRouteNC 55NB33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,758,1273,1271,1274,734,320,319,294,702,694,1282,710,669,665,660,325,326,327,396,157859Mim'sFamilyCareHome893,894,228,959,204,203,1030,226,157460Brown'sFamilyCareHome,JamesRestHome452,75,73,72,1557,1555,1560,582,1552,71,690,759,691,1583,692,601 HarrisNuclearPlant8 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary62RexRehab&NursingCenterofApex734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60163SpringArborofApex304,1280,694,297,298,1281,670,671,123,122,587,12071Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly206,1100,1099,1499,1249,1501,1502,1575,20272WindsorPointContinuingCare1033,425,1031,1253,424,226,1574,20273SanfordHealth&Rehab83,84,87,8974WakeMedApexHealthplex665,660,325,126,672,1582,123,122,587,12075AventFerryHome,CountryLaneGroupHome,Trotter'sBluff1319,21,33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60176BassLakeHome439,555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,52577BrookridgeAssistedLiving1276,294,319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60179CreekwayHome1499,1249,150180Evans WalstonHome44,43,1261,4281FavourHome444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60182HerbertReidHome,St.Mark'sManor54,53,791,52,790,520,522,524,52583HickoryAvenueHome438,1320,1321,439,441,1036,443,444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60184KintonCourtHome229,1250,228,959,204,203,1030,226,1574,20285MasonStreetHome1378,585,1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,60187SeagravesFamilyCareHome294,1451,703,297,1454,1018,1450,12090WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility1100,229,1250,228,959,204,203,1030,226,1574,20291AzaleaGardensMentalHealth,MasonStreetGroupHome,OliveHome1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,60192HopeHouse1254,1256,1255,1258,1263,20293KingsGroupHomeforChildren299,1541,1542,1539,1544,434,127,1584,1593,126,672,1582,123,122,587,12094LifeSkillsIndependentCare#11262,1259,1258,1263,202,1576,4295LockleyRoadHome790,520,522,524,52596MurchisonResidentialCorpHome158,156,140,1319,21,33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601,693 HarrisNuclearPlant8 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary97ShackletonHome1272,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601,693110Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare,Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith957,226,1574,202111LittleAngelsPreparatory,LittleMiracles,ShiningStarChildCareHome1100,1099,1499,1249112ChildcareNetworkFuquay Varina,GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown959,204,203,1030,226,1574,202113AMother'sLove1032,1573,1033,1257,1254,1256,1255,1258114SpinningWheelsLearningCenter48,47,56115HollySpringsLearningCenter,Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare,Sisters'ChildCareServices,TheCarolinaSchool555,715,716,52,790,520,519,518,517,1436,454,717,459116HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation,KiddieAcademyofHollySprings,LittleDreamersPreschool443,444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601117Karin' 4Kidz444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601118AllAboutKids,GraceChurchPreschool,WoodhavenBaptistPre school517,1436,454,717,459119EarthAngel'sDayCareHome1211,1063,728,727,1374,454,717,459120ApexBaptistChurchPreschool,ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool,EdithFranklinDayCareHome,GoddardSchoolApex,GrowingYearsLearningCenter,Vickie'sDayCareHome294,1451,703,1378,585,1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,601121PlayCare682,1283,684,660,325,126,672,1582,123,122,587,120122Lori'sFamilyDayCare,MoravicFamilyDayCare1221,1220,60,692,601123HopeChapelPreschool301,1009,673,671,123,122,587,120 HarrisNuclearPlant8 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool90154.745.071:558.4122:10HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 190150.00.001:453.961:55LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 190150.00.001:458.8122:00WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool90153.041.251:5017.3242:15ApexElementarySchool90153.345.051:5014.7202:10ApexMiddleSchool90152.945.041:5017.1232:15ApexSeniorHighSchool90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25LufkinRoadMiddleSchool90151.245.021:5017.1232:15OliveChapelElementarySchool90153.38.0252:1017.4242:35St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool90154.940.581:5510.6152:10ThalesAcademy90152.936.351:5014.7202:10HollyGroveElementarySchool90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25HollyGroveMiddleSchool90158.230.7172:0524.9342:40HollyRidgeElementarySchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollyRidgeMiddleSchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollySpringsElementarySchool90153.77.7302:1524.7332:50HollySpringsHighSchool90158.730.7172:0513.5192:25NewSchool,Inc.Montessori90152.721.781:5513.4182:15Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool90150.93.9142:0028.4382:40Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool90153.335.361:5527.0372:35LincolnHeightsElementarySchool90151.73.6292:1528.4382:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05 HarrisNuclearPlant8 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids90151.545.031:5016.1222:15ApexBaptistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15ApexChildCarewithDebbie90153.036.351:5014.7202:10ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15EarthAngel'sDayCareHome90151.839.131:5016.1222:15EdithFranklinDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GoddardSchoolApex90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GraceChurchPreschool90151.545.031:5016.1222:15GrowingYearsLearningCenter90152.718.491:5514.7202:15HopeChapelPreschool90151.411.381:5515.9222:20Judy'sHomeCare90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25Karin' 4 Kidz90154.426.2112:0014.7202:20Lori'sFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10MoravicFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10PlayCare90153.219.2112:0015.9222:25Vickie'sDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15WoodhavenBaptistPre school90151.545.031:5016.1222:15HollySpringsLearningCenter90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25KiddieAcademyofHollySprings90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25LittleDreamersPreschool90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Sisters'ChildCareServices90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25StellaLowerySmallDayCare90151.521.651:5013.4182:10SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.721.781:5513.4182:15 HarrisNuclearPlant8 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25AMother'sLove90152.94.0442:3012.8182:50ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30LittleAngelsPreparatory90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00LittleMiracles90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00ReadyOrNotHereIGrow90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25ShiningStarChildCareHome90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00SouthWakePreschool&Academy90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05SpinningWheelsLearningCenter90151.439.031:5011.2152:05VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25MaximumforEPZ:2:45Maximum:3:05AverageforEPZ:2:05Average:2:25Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow
HarrisNuclearPlant8 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool100204.741.072:108.4132:25HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:003.962:10LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:008.8132:15WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool100203.035.062:1017.3262:40ApexElementarySchool100203.341.052:0514.7222:30ApexMiddleSchool100202.941.052:0517.1262:35ApexSeniorHighSchool100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35LufkinRoadMiddleSchool100201.241.022:0517.1262:35OliveChapelElementarySchool100203.38.1252:2517.4262:55St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool100204.936.492:1010.6162:30ThalesAcademy100202.936.752:0514.7222:30HollyGroveElementarySchool100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40HollyGroveMiddleSchool100208.231.1162:2024.9373:00HollyRidgeElementarySchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollyRidgeMiddleSchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollySpringsElementarySchool100203.77.6302:3024.7373:10HollySpringsHighSchool100208.731.1172:2013.5202:40NewSchool,Inc.Montessori100202.727.072:1013.4202:30Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool100200.92.9182:2028.4423:05Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool100203.334.962:1027.0402:50LincolnHeightsElementarySchool100201.72.9362:4028.4423:25SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25 HarrisNuclearPlant8 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids100201.541.032:0516.1242:30ApexBaptistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40ApexChildCarewithDebbie100203.036.752:0514.7222:30ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40EarthAngel'sDayCareHome100201.835.442:0516.1242:30EdithFranklinDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GoddardSchoolApex100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GraceChurchPreschool100201.541.032:0516.1242:30GrowingYearsLearningCenter100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40HopeChapelPreschool100201.44.9182:2015.9242:45Judy'sHomeCare100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35Karin' 4 Kidz100204.440.472:1014.7222:35Lori'sFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30MoravicFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30PlayCare100203.29.9202:2015.9242:45Vickie'sDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40WoodhavenBaptistPre school100201.541.032:0516.1242:30HollySpringsLearningCenter100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation100204.530.792:1013.5202:30HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40KiddieAcademyofHollySprings100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45LittleDreamersPreschool100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Sisters'ChildCareServices100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45StellaLowerySmallDayCare100201.522.542:0513.4202:25SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.727.072:1013.4202:30 HarrisNuclearPlant8 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45AMother'sLove100202.94.4402:4012.8193:00ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50LittleAngelsPreparatory100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20LittleMiracles100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20ReadyOrNotHereIGrow100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45ShiningStarChildCareHome100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20SouthWakePreschool&Academy100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25SpinningWheelsLearningCenter100201.435.832:0511.2172:25VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45MaximumforEPZ:3:05Maximum:3:25AverageforEPZ:2:20Average:2:45Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlant8 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool110254.736.082:258.4142:40HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:153.972:25LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:158.8152:30WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool110253.031.762:2517.3292:55ApexElementarySchool110253.336.062:2514.7252:50ApexMiddleSchool110252.936.052:2017.1292:50ApexSeniorHighSchool110250.85.492:2515.9272:55LufkinRoadMiddleSchool110251.236.022:2017.1292:50OliveChapelElementarySchool110253.38.1252:4017.4293:10St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool110254.935.892:2510.6182:45ThalesAcademy110252.932.662:2514.7252:50HollyGroveElementarySchool110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00HollyGroveMiddleSchool110258.225.7202:3524.9423:20HollyRidgeElementarySchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollyRidgeMiddleSchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollySpringsElementarySchool110253.77.1322:5024.7423:35HollySpringsHighSchool110258.727.8192:3513.5233:00NewSchool,Inc.Montessori110252.719.992:2513.4232:50Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool110250.92.9182:3528.4483:25Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool110253.328.572:2527.0463:15LincolnHeightsElementarySchool110251.72.2473:0528.4483:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids110251.536.032:2016.1272:50ApexBaptistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50ApexChildCarewithDebbie110253.032.562:2514.7252:50ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50EarthAngel'sDayCareHome110251.831.042:2016.1272:50EdithFranklinDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GoddardSchoolApex110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GraceChurchPreschool110251.536.032:2016.1272:50GrowingYearsLearningCenter110252.723.182:2514.7252:50HopeChapelPreschool110251.44.1212:4015.9273:10Judy'sHomeCare110250.85.492:2515.9272:55Karin' 4 Kidz110254.436.082:2514.7252:50Lori'sFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45MoravicFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45PlayCare110253.28.0252:4015.9273:10Vickie'sDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50WoodhavenBaptistPre school110251.536.032:2016.1272:50HollySpringsLearningCenter110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00KiddieAcademyofHollySprings110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00LittleDreamersPreschool110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Sisters'ChildCareServices110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00StellaLowerySmallDayCare110251.518.452:2013.4232:45SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.719.992:2513.4232:50 HarrisNuclearPlant8 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00AMother'sLove110252.94.0443:0012.8223:25ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10LittleAngelsPreparatory110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45LittleMiracles110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45ReadyOrNotHereIGrow110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05ShiningStarChildCareHome110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45SouthWakePreschool&Academy110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40SpinningWheelsLearningCenter110251.431.932:2011.2192:40VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05MaximumforEPZ:3:20Maximum:3:55AverageforEPZ:2:35Average:3:05Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlant8 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutesRouteNo.ofBusesRouteDescriptionSub ZonesServicedLength(mi.)409SouthernEPZ:NC 42fromFuquay VarinawestoutoftheEPZtowardSanfordG(10%)+H+I+K20.24112EasternEPZ:NC 55southboundfromentranceintoEPZthroughHollySpringsandFuquay VarinaE(15%)+F(10%)+G(10%)14.74211NorthernEPZ:US 64westboundfromintersectionwithSalemSt(SR1011)outofEPZtowardsPittsboroE(20%)+N13.04333CirculatethroughApex,theneastoutofEPZtoReceptionCentersE(65%)17.24422CirculatethroughHollySprings,thennortheastoutofEPZtoReceptionCentersF(90%)20.54519CirculatethroughFuquay Varina,thensouthoutofEPZtoReceptionCentersG(80%)8.3462Sub ZonesA,B:OldUS 1eastboundtoNewHillOliveRdnorthbound,thenoutoftheEPZalongUS 64WBtoNC 540TollA+B14.3473Sub ZonesC,D:CassHoltRdeastboundtowardsHollySprings,thenalongHollySpringsNewHillRdwestbound.ExitsEPZalongUS 1eastboundtoReceptionCentersC+D17.3481Sub ZoneJ:PicksupevacueesalongLowerMoncureRdsouthbound,thenoutofEPZtowardsSanfordJ6.0492Sub ZoneM:OldUS 1inMoncuretoMoncurePittsboroRdnorthbound,toGumSpringsChurchRdoutoftheEPZtowardsPittsboroM9.9Total:114 HarrisNuclearPlant8 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 312020.245.027303:0010.01351067305:054 613520.245.027303:1510.01351067305:206 915020.245.027303:3010.01351067305:35411 312014.710.584303:5512.81751056305:554 613014.711.378304:0012.81751056306:006 914014.712.570304:0012.81751056306:009 1215014.713.963304:0512.81751056306:05421 312013.045.017302:506.5951044304:304 613013.045.017303:006.5951044304:406 914013.045.017303:106.5951044304:509 1115013.045.017303:206.5951044305:00431 512017.219.254303:2514.72051066305:406 1012517.221.847303:2514.72051066305:4011 1513017.222.546303:3014.72051066305:4516 2013517.223.544303:3014.72051066305:4521 2514017.226.539303:3014.72051066305:4526 2914517.227.737303:3514.72051066305:5030 3315017.230.534303:3514.72051066305:50441 412020.519.862303:3513.41851073305:555 712520.520.560303:3513.41851073305:558 1013020.521.358303:4013.41851073306:0011 1313520.524.151303:4013.41851073306:0014 1614020.525.349303:4013.41851073306:0017 1914520.526.746303:4513.41851073306:0520 2215020.527.844303:4513.41851073306:05 HarrisNuclearPlant8 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41208.35.787304:0013.71851043305:505 71308.36.182304:0513.71851043305:558 101358.36.379304:0513.71851043305:5511 131408.36.576304:1013.71851043306:0014 161458.36.873304:1013.71851043306:0017 191508.37.170304:1013.71851043306:0046112014.345.019302:5024.23251070305:20215014.345.019303:2024.23251070305:5047112017.335.929303:0018.82551071305:25213517.339.027303:1518.82551071305:40315017.338.927303:3018.82551071305:554811206.045.08302:4010.51451030304:104911209.945.013302:457.41051036304:2021509.945.013303:157.41051036304:50MaximumETE:4:10MaximumETE:6:05AverageETE:3:35AverageETE:5:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 313020.241.030403:2010.01551074405:454 614520.241.030403:3510.01551074406:006 916020.241.030403:5010.01551074406:15411 313014.79.593404:2512.81951062406:454 614014.710.287404:3012.81951062406:506 915014.711.080404:3512.81951062406:559 1216014.712.173404:3512.81951062406:55421 313013.041.019403:106.5951047405:054 614013.041.019403:206.5951047405:156 915013.041.019403:306.5951047405:259 1116013.041.019403:406.5951047405:35431 513017.219.553403:4514.72151071406:156 1013517.220.251403:5014.72151071406:2011 1514017.221.049403:5014.72151071406:2016 2014517.223.644403:5014.72151071406:2021 2515017.224.742403:5514.72151071406:2526 2915517.227.138403:5514.72151071406:2530 3316017.228.237404:0014.72151071406:30441 413020.518.666404:0013.42051080406:355 713520.519.364404:0013.42051080406:358 1014020.521.757404:0013.42051080406:3511 1314520.522.854404:0013.42051080406:3514 1615020.523.952404:0513.42051080406:4017 1915520.524.949404:0513.42051080406:4020 2216020.527.445404:0513.42051080406:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41308.34.8105404:3513.72051047406:405 71408.35.099404:4013.72051047406:458 101458.35.296404:4513.72051047406:5011 131508.35.493404:4513.72051047406:5014 161558.35.590404:5013.72051047406:5517 191608.35.787404:5013.72051047406:5546113014.341.021403:1524.23551077406:05216014.341.021403:4524.23551077406:3547113017.330.134403:2518.82751078406:05214517.335.030403:3518.82751078406:15316017.335.329403:5018.82751078406:304811306.041.09403:0010.51551033404:454911309.940.815403:057.41151040404:5521609.941.014403:357.41151040405:25MaximumETE:4:50MaximumETE:6:55AverageETE:4:00AverageETE:6:20 HarrisNuclearPlant8 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 314020.236.034503:4510.01751084506:354 615520.236.034504:0010.01751084506:506 917020.236.034504:1510.01751084507:05411 314014.78.6102504:5512.82151070507:354 615014.79.395504:5512.82151070507:356 916014.711.180504:5012.82151070507:309 1217014.712.173504:5512.82151070507:35421 314013.036.022503:356.51151054505:454 615013.036.022503:456.51151054505:556 916013.036.022503:556.51151054506:059 1117013.036.022504:056.51151054506:15431 514017.217.659504:1014.72451081507:006 1014517.218.257504:1514.72451081507:0511 1515017.219.154504:1514.72451081507:0516 2015517.221.249504:1514.72451081507:0521 2516017.222.047504:2014.72451081507:1026 2916517.223.943504:2014.72451081507:1030 3317017.224.642504:2514.72451081507:15441 414020.516.475504:3013.42251090507:305 714520.516.973504:3013.42251090507:308 1015020.518.866504:3013.42251090507:3011 1315520.519.463504:3013.42251090507:3014 1616020.520.261504:3513.42251090507:3517 1916520.520.959504:3513.42251090507:3520 2217020.522.954504:3513.42251090507:35 HarrisNuclearPlant8 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41408.33.9128505:2013.72351054507:455 71508.34.1122505:2513.72351054507:508 101558.34.2120505:2513.72351054507:5011 131608.34.3117505:3013.72351054507:5514 161658.34.4114505:3013.72351054507:5517 191708.35.689505:1013.72351054507:3546114014.336.024503:3524.24051088506:50217014.336.024504:0524.24051088507:2047114017.324.443503:5518.83151089507:00215517.331.034504:0018.83151089507:05317017.332.032504:1518.83151089507:204811406.034.211503:2510.51751037505:254911409.935.917503:307.41251045505:3521709.936.017504:007.41251045506:05MaximumETE:5:30MaximumETE:7:55AverageETE:4:25AverageETE:7:05 HarrisNuclearPlant8 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table814.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)SanfordHealth&RehabAmbulatory90241601.932:35Wheelchairbound907691051.933:20Bedridden 90152730 1.9 32:05 Brown'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory9026123.341:50JamesRestHomeAmbulatory90228563.342:30Wheelchairbound 90 71028 3.3 42:05 MurchisonResidentialCorpHomeAmbulatory902369.7202:00AzaleaGardensMentalHealthAmbulatory9026102.131:45BrookridgeAssistedLivingAmbulatory90240603.652:35Wheelchairbound 90 71228 3.6 52:05 FavourHomeAmbulatory902684.6151:55KingsGroupHomeforChildrenAmbulatory902484.6222:00LockleyRoadHomeAmbulatory9026101.781:50MasonStreetGroupHomeAmbulatory9026102.131:45OliveHomeAmbulatory9026102.131:45RexRehab&NursingCenterofApexAmbulatory90220402.642:15Wheelchairbound907401052.643:20Bedridden 90153030 2.6 42:05 SeagravesFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory902483.5362:15ShackletonHomeAmbulatory902363.041:40SpringArborofApexAmbulatory90247602.982:40Wheelchairbound90719282.9162:15 HarrisNuclearPlant8 45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)WakeMedApexHealthplexAmbulatory9027142.991:55Wheelchairbound9074282.982:10Bedridden 90 15 1 15 2.9 91:55 AventFerryHomeAmbulatory9026107.4121:55BassLakeHomeAmbulatory902684.1372:15CountryLaneGroupHomeAmbulatory 9026 10 7.4 121:55 HerbertReidHomeAmbulatory9025103.3111:55HickoryAvenueHomeAmbulatory 9026 10 6.8 362:20 St.Mark'sManorAmbulatory9029103.3111:55Trotter'sBluffAmbulatory9026107.4121:55CreekwayHomeAmbulatory9026100.4162:00Evans WalstonHomeAmbulatory902362.5131:50Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderlyAmbulatory90260601.4463:20Wheelchairbound9072141.4632:50HopeHouseAmbulatory902481.7242:05KintonCourtHomeAmbulatory90216101.7332:15LifeSkillsIndependentCare#1Ambulatory902480.8111:50Mim'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory902245.1462:20WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacilityAmbulatory902001.9282:00Wheelchairbound90720281.9252:25Bedridden 90151530 1.9 252:25 WindsorPointContinuingCareAmbulatory902140601.3132:45Wheelchairbound9071001051.333:20Bedridden 90153530 1.3 192:20MaximumETE:3:20AverageETE:2:15Notes:1-RefertoTable8 4.Somefacilitiesuseminivansandpassengercarstoevacuate.Loadingtimesarelessforthesevehiclesthanforbuses HarrisNuclearPlant8 46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table815.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)SanfordHealth&RehabAmbulatory100241601.932:45Wheelchairbound1007691051.933:30Bedridden1001527301.932:15Brown'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory10026123.352:00JamesRestHomeAmbulatory100228563.352:45Wheelchairbound100710283.352:15MurchisonResidentialCorpHomeAmbulatory1002369.7222:10AzaleaGardensMentalHealthAmbulatory10026102.131:55BrookridgeAssistedLivingAmbulatory100240603.652:45Wheelchairbound100712283.652:15FavourHomeAmbulatory1002684.672:00KingsGroupHomeforChildrenAmbulatory1002484.6322:20LockleyRoadHomeAmbulatory10026101.752:00MasonStreetGroupHomeAmbulatory10026102.131:55OliveHomeAmbulatory10026102.131:55RexRehab&NursingCenterofApexAmbulatory100220402.642:25Wheelchairbound1007401052.643:30Bedridden1001530302.642:15SeagravesFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1002483.5392:30ShackletonHomeAmbulatory1002363.041:50SpringArborofApexAmbulatory100247602.9112:55Wheelchairbound100719282.962:30 HarrisNuclearPlant8 47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)WakeMedApexHealthplexAmbulatory10027142.9202:15Wheelchairbound10074282.9152:25Bedridden100151152.9202:15AventFerryHomeAmbulatory10026107.4112:05BassLakeHomeAmbulatory1002684.1382:30CountryLaneGroupHomeAmbulatory10026107.4112:05HerbertReidHomeAmbulatory10025103.392:00HickoryAvenueHomeAmbulatory10026106.8342:25St.Mark'sManorAmbulatory10029103.362:00Trotter'sBluffAmbulatory10026107.4112:05CreekwayHomeAmbulatory10026100.4152:05Evans WalstonHomeAmbulatory1002362.5142:00Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderlyAmbulatory100260601.4583:40Wheelchairbound10072141.4602:55HopeHouseAmbulatory1002481.7252:15KintonCourtHomeAmbulatory100216101.7352:30LifeSkillsIndependentCare#1Ambulatory1002480.8122:00Mim'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1002245.1622:50WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacilityWheelchairbound100720281.9122:50Bedridden1001515301.9392:50WindsorPointContinuingCareAmbulatory1002140601.3193:00Wheelchairbound10071001051.393:35Bedridden1001535301.3192:30MaximumETE:3:40AverageETE:2:30Notes:1-RefertoTable8 4.Somefacilitiesuseminivansandpassengercarstoevacuate.Loadingtimesarelessforthesevehiclesthanforbuses HarrisNuclearPlant8 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table816.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)Loading Rate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)SanfordHealth&RehabAmbulatory110241601.932:55Wheelchairbound1107691051.933:40Bedridden1101527301.932:25Brown'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory11026123.352:10JamesRestHomeAmbulatory110228563.352:55Wheelchairbound110710283.352:25MurchisonResidentialCorpHomeAmbulatory1102369.7262:25AzaleaGardensMentalHealthAmbulatory11026102.142:05BrookridgeAssistedLivingAmbulatory110240603.663:00Wheelchairbound110712283.662:25FavourHomeAmbulatory1102684.682:10KingsGroupHomeforChildrenAmbulatory1102484.6342:35LockleyRoadHomeAmbulatory11026101.7102:10MasonStreetGroupHomeAmbulatory1102662.142:05OliveHomeAmbulatory11026102.142:05RexRehab&NursingCenterofApexAmbulatory110220402.642:35Wheelchairbound1107401052.643:40Bedridden1101530302.642:25SeagravesFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1102483.5312:30ShackletonHomeAmbulatory1102363.052:05SpringArborofApexAmbulatory110247602.9113:05Wheelchairbound110719282.962:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)Loading Rate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)WakeMedApexHealthplexAmbulatory11027142.9242:30Wheelchairbound11074282.9202:40Bedridden110151152.9242:30AventFerryHomeAmbulatory11026107.4122:15BassLakeHomeAmbulatory1102684.1422:45CountryLaneGroupHomeAmbulatory11026107.4122:15HerbertReidHomeAmbulatory11025103.3142:15HickoryAvenueHomeAmbulatory11026106.8332:35St.Mark'sManorAmbulatory11029103.3102:15Trotter'sBluffAmbulatory11026107.4122:15CreekwayHomeAmbulatory11026100.4182:20Evans WalstonHomeAmbulatory1102362.5162:15Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderlyAmbulatory110260601.4643:55Wheelchairbound11072141.4653:10HopeHouseAmbulatory1102481.7252:25KintonCourtHomeAmbulatory110216101.7472:50LifeSkillsIndependentCare#1Ambulatory1102480.8122:10Mim'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1102245.1953:30WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacilityWheelchairbound110720281.9583:20Bedridden1101515301.9583:20WindsorPointContinuingCareAmbulatory1102140601.3223:15Wheelchairbound11071001051.3183:55Bedridden1101535301.3232:45MaximumETE:3:55AverageETE:2:40Notes:1-RefertoTable8 4.Somefacilitiesuseminivansandpassengercarstoevacuate.Loadingtimesarelessforthesevehiclesthanforbuses HarrisNuclearPlant8 50KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table817.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimatesVehicleTypePeopleRequiringVehicleVehiclesdeployedStopsWeatherConditionsMobiliza tionTime(min)LoadingTimeat1 stStop(min)TraveltoSubsequentStops(min)TotalLoadingTimeatSubsequentStops(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)Buses75108Good9056335123:25Rain10070153:45Ice11077184:05WheelchairVans1954Good9072721122:40Rain10030152:55Ice11033183:10Ambulances952Good90151015122:25Rain10011152:40Ice11013172:50MaximumETE:4:05AverageETE:3:10 HarrisNuclearPlant9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).* TheManualofUnifor mTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.providesguidanceforTrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.AllstateandmostcountytransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisavailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. FacilitateevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Theterms"facilitate"and"discourage"areemployedratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forex ample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.
HarrisNuclearPlant9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandSRBsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR 7002.2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.Thisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionstha texperiencepronouncedcongestion.AnycriticalintersectionsthatarenotidentifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandSRBs3. Afieldsurveyofthehighwaynetworkwithin15milesofthepowerplant.Theschematicsdescribingtrafficandaccesscontrolatsuggeste dadditionalTCPsandSRBs,whicharepresentedinAppendixG,arebasedondatacollectedduringfieldsurveys,uponlargescalemaps,andonoverheadphotos.4. Consultationwithemergencymanagementandlawenforcementpersonnel.Trainedpersonnelwhoareexperiencedincontrollingtrafficandareawareofthelik elyevacuationtrafficpatternshavereviewedthecontroltacticsatthesuggestedadditionalTCPsandSRBs.5. PrioritizationofTCPsandSRBs.ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandSRBswillhaveamorepronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmovementsthanatotherTCPsandSRBs.Forexampl e,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromthepowerplant.Theseprioritieshavebeenreviewedandapprovedbystate/countyemergencymanagementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.Basedonthecomputeranalysis,rev isionstothreeTCPs,additionofsixnewTCPs,andadditionofonenewSRBarerecommended-seeAppendixG.ThecontroltacticsidentifiedintheschematicsinAppendixGhavebeenreviewedandapprovedbythestateandcountyemergencyplanners,an dlocalandstatelawenforcement.AsdiscussedinSection7.5,theroadwayimpactscenarioresultedinatmosta10 minuteincreaseinETE.ThisisnotasignificantchangeinETE.Thus,notrafficmanagementtacticsarenecessarytomitigatetheimpactsofapotentialroadwayclosurealongUS 1northboundorUS 64eastbound.TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"externalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter30minuteshaveelapsedfromtheATE.AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningSRBsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussSRBandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.
HarrisNuclearPlant10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromaSub ZonebeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsu chawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1mapsthegeneralpopulationrecept ioncentersandrelocationschoolsforevacuees.ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 2.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriaterelocationschoolandsubsequentlybepickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transit dependentevacueesaretransportedtothenearestreceptioncenterforeachcounty.Thisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.
HarrisNuclearPlant10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandRelocationSchools HarrisNuclearPlant10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.EvacuationRoutes APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms HarrisNuclearPlantA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red.
HarrisNuclearPlantA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.
APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel HarrisNuclearPlantB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost".OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.
HarrisNuclearPlantB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel HarrisNuclearPlantB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a=
ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.
HarrisNuclearPlantB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepres entsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.
HarrisNuclearPlantB 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?
Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel HarrisNuclearPlantC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics HarrisNuclearPlantC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network HarrisNuclearPlantC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks HarrisNuclearPlantC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 80078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx HarrisNuclearPlantC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.
HarrisNuclearPlantC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams HarrisNuclearPlantC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp HarrisNuclearPlantC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelength ofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.
HarrisNuclearPlantC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength.
HarrisNuclearPlantC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.
HarrisNuclearPlantC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.
HarrisNuclearPlantC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,.
Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:
HarrisNuclearPlantC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm HarrisNuclearPlantC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.
HarrisNuclearPlantC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes HarrisNuclearPlantC 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.
APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure HarrisNuclearPlantD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.Dataforemployees,transients,schools,andotherfacilitieswereobtainedfromthecountyemergencymanagementdepartments.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateandlocalemergencymanagers,on siteandoff siteutilityemergencymanagers,localandstatelawenforcementagencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specificrequestsforinformationwerepres entedtocountyemergencymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredtoperformpre evacuationmobilizationactivities.
HarrisNuclearPlantD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto14sub zones.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofsub zones)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperien cetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.
HarrisNuclearPlantD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputstreammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thentheprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroutespecificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentandspecialf acilitypopulationgroups.Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset.
HarrisNuclearPlantD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.
HarrisNuclearPlantD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXEFacilityData HarrisNuclearPlantE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. FACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofAugust2012,forspecialfacilities,transientattractionsandmajoremployersthatarelocatedwithintheHNPEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,childcarecenters,hospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforcampgrounds,parksandcommunitycenters,golfcoursesan dlodgingfacilities.Employmentdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Eachtableisgroupedbycounty.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,childcarecent er,medicalfacility,majoremployer,campground,parkandcommunitycenter,golfcourseandlodgingfacilityarealsoprovided.
HarrisNuclearPlantE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffCHATHAMCOUNTYM6.8WMoncureElementarySchool600MoncureSchoolRdMoncure(919)5423725285 45ChathamCountySubtotals:28545HARNETTCOUNTYS.R.112.5SELafayetteElementarySchool108LafayetteSchoolFuquay Varina(919)5524353780 80 HarnettCountySubtotals:78080LEECOUNTYS.R.111.1WSWDeepRiverElementarySchool4000DeepRiverRdSanford(919)7762722638100 LeeCountySubtotals:638100WAKECOUNTYE9.2NEA.V.BaucomElementarySchool400HunterSt Apex(919)3872168962100 E8.3NEApexElementarySchool700TingenRd Apex(919)3872150670 83 E8.8NEApexMiddleSchool400EMooreSt Apex(919)38721811,086150 E10.1NEApexSeniorHighSchool 21501LauraDuncanRdApex(919)38722082,300200 E9.3NELufkinRoadMiddleSchool1002LufkinRd Apex(919)38744651,010100 E7.8NNEOliveChapelElementarySchool1751OliveChapelRdApex(919)3874440933130 E7.7NESt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool625MagdalaPl Apex(919)6574800704 65 E9.6NEThalesAcademy1177AmbergateSt Apex(919)3033108319 30 F5.9EHollyGroveElementarySchool1451AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)5771700980115 F6.1EHollyGroveMiddleSchool1401AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)56741771,136100 F8.0EHollyRidgeElementarySchool900HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)5771300724 80 F8.0EHollyRidgeMiddleSchool950HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)55726601,033100 F7.4EHollySpringsElementarySchool401HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)55726601,121126 F6.0EHollySpringsHighSchool5329CassHoltRd HollySprings(919)46386062,108150 F9.6ENewSchool,Inc.Montessori5617SunsetLakeRdHollySprings(919)3033636180 35 G9.7ESEFuquay VarinaMiddleSchool109NEnnisStFuquay Varina(919)5572727903 98 G9.2ESEFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool201BengalDrFuquay Varina(919)55725111,925150 G8.7EHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool2255HerbertAkinsRdFuquay Varina(919)5674100867 98 G8.8ESELincolnHeightsElementarySchool307BridgeStFuquay Varina(919)5572587474 95 G7.8ESouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool5108OldPowellRd HollySprings(919)5679955119 15WakeCountySubtotals:19,5542,020TOTAL:21,2572,245 HarrisNuclearPlantE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.ChildCareCenterswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffWAKECOUNTYE9.9ENEAllAboutKids3901KildaireFarmRdCary(919)303776712530E8.9NEApexBaptistChurchPreschool110SouthSalemStApex(919)362617617424E9.4NEApexChildCarewithDebbie102BeechHollowPl Apex(919)363991152 E8.9NEApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100S.HughesStApex(919)36278077825E9.5ENEEarthAngel'sDayCareHome2909EarthDrApex(919)362516681E9.0NEEdithFranklinDayCareHome501EChathamStApex(919)362775351E8.7ENEGoddardSchoolApex903OliveChapelRdApex(919)362399912026E10.1ENEGraceChurchPreschool 23725KildareFarmRdApex(919)36293558213E8.7NEGrowingYearsLearningCenter470WestWilliamsStApex(919)387818910014E10.2NEHopeChapelPreschool 26175OldJenksRdApex(919)38781897515E10.0NEJudy'sHomeCare1300LauraDuncanRdApex(919)362519151E7.9ENEKarin' 4 Kidz201RidgeLakeRdApex(919)387285182E10.3NELori'sFamilyDayCare 22610HaventreeCtApex(919)387141921E9.7NEMoravicFamilyDayCare1814MistyHollowLnApex(919)367757951E8.7NNEPlayCare1422FairfaxWoodsDrApex(919)303931561E8.8NEVickie'sDayCareHome410EChathamStApex(919)362770251E9.7ENEWoodhavenBaptistPre school4000KildareFarmRdApex(919)362390910215F8.3ENEHollySpringsLearningCenter1180HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)577611915930F7.5ENEHollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation101ArborCreekDrHollySprings(919)30390098823F6.2EHomeAwayFromHomeChildcare416ClineFallsDrHollySprings(919)538272551F7.5ENEKiddieAcademyofHollySprings150RosewoodCentreDrHollySprings(919)367008814525F7.3ENEKris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare420CaymanAveHollySprings(919)552400251F7.5ENELittleDreamersPreschool114HyannisDrHollySprings(919)303343411110F7.3ESisters'ChildCareServices400EarpStHollySprings(919)5529624204F9.7ENEStellaLowerySmallDayCareHome102OaklandDrApex(919)362131351 HarrisNuclearPlantE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffF9.3ENESunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool5420SunsetLakeRdHollySprings(919)30337206616F8.0ENETheCarolinaSchool10308HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)55755055010G9.3EAMother'sLove524DogwoodCreekPlFuquay Varina(919)552544851G9.1ESEChildcareNetwork-Fuquay Varina350W.JonesStFuquay Varina(919)557121911319G9.6ESEFuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare301NWoodrowStFuquay Varina(919)55295869823G9.7ESEFuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith100SJuddPkwySEFuquay Varina(919)557156818027G9.3ESEGingerbreadLittleversity Downtown211RailroadStFuquay Varina(919)55247239916G9.6ESELittleAngelsPreparatory724SMainStFuquay Varina(919)55255755010G10.2ESELittleMiracles 2428BarnViewCtFuquay Varina(919)557127241G9.0ESEReadyOrNotHereIGrow201PowhatanDrFuquay Varina(919)55233329215G9.0ESEShiningStarChildCareHome516NatureWalkRdFuquay Varina(919)567073851G8.3ESouthWakePreschool&Academy2275NGrasslandDrFuquay Varina(919)5771144377G9.8ESpinningWheelsLearningCenter6225SunsetLakeRdFuquay Varina(919)3427009247G9.0ESEVanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome829AlderleafDrFuquay Varina(919)552098271WakeCountySubtotals:2,263419TOTAL:2,273422Notes1S.R.isShadowRegion.CountyplansevacuatethesetwofacilitiesduetotheircloseproximitytotheEPZboundary2Facilityislocatedgreaterthan10milesfromtheHNP,however,stillresideswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCap acityCurrentCensusAmbul atoryPatientsWheelchairPatientsBedriddenPatientsLEECOUNTYJ10.4WSWSanfordHealth&Rehab 22702FarrellRdSanford(919)7769602137137416927LeeCountySubtotals:137137416927WAKECOUNTYA2.4NEBrown'sFamilyCareHome8416JamesRestHomeRdNewHill(919)362668666600A2.3NEJamesRestHome8420JamesRestHomeRdNewHill(919)3628856403828100C4.7EMurchisonResidentialCorpHome533TexannaWayHollySprings(919)557671233300E9.1NEAzaleaGardensMentalHealth413CulvertStApex(919)387139166600E8.4NEBrookridgeAssistedLiving312LynchStApex(919)3626266555240120E8.0ENEFavourHome202LindellDriveApex(919)362835366600E7.6NNEKingsGroupHomeforChildren109EveningStarDrApex(919)303500244400E9.2ENELockleyRoadHome4617LockleyRdHollySprings(919)303566566600E9.1NEMasonStreetGroupHome306N.MasonStApex(919)387588166600E9.0NEOliveHome707OliveStApex(919)387708066600E8.4NERexRehab&NursingCenterofApex911S.HughesStApex(919)363601110790204030E7.4NESeagravesFamilyCareHome1052IrongateDrApex(919)362855664400E8.0NEShackletonHome1105ShackletonRdApex(919)267575933300E8.7NESpringArborofApex901SpringArborCtApex(919)3039990766647190 HarrisNuclearPlantE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCap acityCurrentCensusAmbul atoryPatientsWheelchairPatientsBedriddenPatientsE8.7NEWakeMedApexHealthplex 1120HealthplexWayApex(919)38702281212741F6.5EAventFerryHome904AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)557633666600F7.8EBassLakeHome408BassLakeRdHollySprings(919)557384466600F6.6ECountryLaneGroupHome534CountryLnHollySprings(919)552545766600F8.5ENEHerbertReidHome3733HeritageMeadowsLnHollySprings(919)363531155500F7.0EHickoryAvenueHome112HickoryAveHollySprings(919)5525407666F8.6ENESt.Mark'sManor3735HeritageMeadowsLnHollySprings(919)363531199900F6.5ETrotter'sBluff912AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)557633766600G10.2ESECreekwayHome 2424CreekwayDrFuquay Varina(919)552435966600G9.5EEvans WalstonHome808HawksViewCtFuquay Varina(919)552131233300G9.8ESEFuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly1012SMainStFuquay Varina(919)552367180626020G9.8EHopeHouse821BrookhannahCtFuquay Varina(919)557437144400G9.4ESEKintonCourtHome301SunsetDrFuquay Varina(919)55769671616 1600 G9.9ESELifeSkillsIndependentCare#1800PerryHowardRdFuquay Varina(919)577002144400G6.9SEMim'sFamilyCareHome6337MimsRdHollySprings(919)552645562200G9.4ESEWakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility400RansomStFuquay Varina(919)3504600363502015G9.0ESEWindsorPointContinuingCare1221BroadStFuquay Varina(919)552458030027514010035WakeCountySubtotals:84175947120781TOTAL:978896512276108Notes1Thisfacilityisastand aloneEmergencyDepartmentwithaconstantlychangingbreakdownofpatients.Theaveragepercentagebreakdownofambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpatientsforallothermedicalfacilitieswasappliedforthisfacility.2Facilityislocatedgreaterthan10milesfromtheHNP,however,stillresideswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)LEECOUNTY J10.4WSWSanfordHealth&Rehab 1,2,32702FarrellRdSanford(919)776960211052%57LeeCountySubtotals:11057CHATHAMCOUNTY K5.5WSWArclin790CorinthRdMoncure(919)5422526 2375%17 K6.1SWGeneralShaleBrickCompany300BrickPlantRdMoncure(919)7746533 4550%23 K5.6WSWMoncurePlywood306CorinthRdMoncure(919)5422311 9095%86 K5.1WPerformanceFibers338PeaRidgeRd NewHill(919)542220018060%108 K2.9WTriangleBrickCompany294KingRdMoncure(919)2265622 5025%13 L7.2NBuildersFirstSource 23RedCedarWay Apex(919)3634956 9050%45ChathamCountySubtotals:478292 WAKECOUNTY A1.8NWDomtarPaperCompany7634OldUSHwy1NewHill(919)36796963050%15A2.2NEHarrisE&ECenter3932NewHillHollemanRdNewHill(919)362326110063%63A0.0HarrisNuclearPlant5421ShearonHarrisRdNewHill(919)363056070063%441E9.2NEA.V.BaucomElementarySchool 1400HunterStApex(919)387216810052%52E8.3NEApexElementarySchool 1700TingenRdApex(919)38721508352%43E8.8NEApexMiddleSchool 1400EMooreStApex(919)387218115052%78E8.8NEApexPublicWorks105UpchurchStApex(919)36281664950%25E10.1NEApexSeniorHighSchool 1,31501LauraDuncanRdApex(919)387220820052%104E8.8NEApexToolGroup(CooperHandTools)1000LufkinRdApex(919)818585118050%90E9.3NEApexTownHall73HunterSt Apex(919)2493400 7250%36 E8.9NNECarrabba'sItalianGrill1201HaddonHallDr Apex(919)3876336 3050%15 E9.0NNEChili'sGrill&Bar1120BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)38777013250%16E7.6ENEEMCCorp5800TechnologyDr Apex(919)362480040850%204 E9.4NEFoodLion620LauraDuncanRd Apex(919)3623904 3650%18 E8.9NEHarrisTeeter(Apex#58)750WWilliamsSt Apex(919)3623782 6250%31 E9.0NNEHomeDepotApex1000VisionDrApex(919)38765544050%20E8.9NNEKohl's1301BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)38774997250%36 HarrisNuclearPlantE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)E8.7NELowe'sFoods(Apex#184)5400ApexPeakway Apex(919)3635376 7550%38 E8.9NNELowe'sHomeImprovement1101BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)30342006050%30E9.3NELufkinRoadMiddleSchool 11002LufkinRdApex(919)387446510052%52E7.8NNEOliveChapelElementarySchool 11751OliveChapelRdApex(919)387444013052%68E8.6NEPottersIndustries,Inc.820LufkinRd Apex(919)3627574 6050%30 E8.8NNERedRobinGourmetBurgers1431BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)36385993050%15E8.4NERexRehab&NursingCenterofApex 1911S.HughesSt.AApex(919)36360112252%11E7.7NESt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool 1625MagdalaPlApex(919)65748006552%34E8.8NNETarget1201BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)372140518650%93E9.4NETipperTieInc.2000LufkinRdApex(919)36288117550%38E8.7NEWakemedApexHealthplex120HealthplexWayApex(919)35009895050%25E7.7NEWalmart(Apex#3889)3151ApexPeakwayApex(919)36237375250%26F9.4NEFoodLion517NorthMainStHollySprings(919)55711753350%17F9.3ENEHarrisTeeter(HollySprings#118)5277SunsetLakeRdHollySprings(919)36330597250%36F6.6EHarrisTeeter(HollySprings#311)324VillageWalkDrHollySprings(919)55215965750%29F5.9EHollyGroveElementarySchool 11451AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)577170011552%60F6.1EHollyGroveMiddleSchool 11401AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)567417710052%52F8.0EHollyRidgeElementarySchool 1900HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)57713008052%42F8.0EHollyRidgeMiddleSchool 1950HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)557266010052%52F7.4EHollySpringsElementarySchool 1401HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)557266012652%66F6.0EHollySpringsHighSchool 15329CassHoltRdHollySprings(919)463860615052%78F7.0EHollySpringsTownHall128SouthMainStHollySprings(919)557390310550%53F5.8ENEIdealLandscaping131TraditionTrailHollySprings(919)56733256050%30 HarrisNuclearPlantE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)F7.4ELowe'sFood(HollySprings#207)550HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)57769716350%32F5.1ENENovartis475GreenOaksPkwyHollySprings(919)577500030050%150F6.7ERexExpressCareofHollySprings781AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)56761205550%28F6.9EWalmart(HollySprings#4458)7016GBAlfordHwyHollySprings(919)55791815250%26F6.1ENEWarpTechnologiesInc.601IrvingPkwyHollySprings(919)55223117550%38G8.5EBerk Tek(NexanCompany)100TechnologyParkLnFuquay Varina(919)57720235450%27G9.4ESEBobBarkerCompany134NorthMainStFuquay Varina(919)552989519050%95G9.4ESEFidelityBank100NMainStFuquay Varina(919)55222427050%35G9.7ESEFuquay VarinaMiddleSchool 1109NEnnisStFuquay Varina(919)55727279852%51G9.2ESEFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool 1201BengalDrFuquay Varina(919)557251115052%78G8.7EHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool 12255HerbertAkinsRdFuquay Varina(919)56741009852%51G10.0ESEHomeDepot-Fuquay Varina901EastBroadStFuquay Varina(919)55228815250%26G10.5ESEKrogerBakery 31371EastBroadStFuquay Varina(919)56774236550%33G8.8ESELincolnHeightsElementarySchool 1307BridgeStFuquay Varina(919)55725879552%49G9.4ESEWakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility 1,2400RansomSt.Fuquay Varina(919)35046005652%29G10.2ESEWalmart(FuquayVarina#2836)31051EastBroadStFuquay Varina(919)56723505050%25G9.0ESEWindsorPointContinuingCare 1,21221BroadStFuquay Varina(919)552458016052%83WakeCountySubtotals:5,9303,118TOTAL:6,5183,467Notes1Anaverageof52%nonEPZemployees(baseduponthosefacilitieswhichdidprovidedetaileddata)wasappliedtothosefacilitieswhichdidnotprovidedetaileddata2Numberofem p lo y eesdurin gmaxshiftwasassumedtobethetotalnumberofem p lo y eesforthosefacilitieswhichdidnotp rovidedetaileddata3Facilityislocatedgreaterthan10milesfromtheHNP,however,stillresideswithintheEPZAllemployershavemorethan50totalemployees,despitesomehavingamaximumshiftlessthan50 HarrisNuclearPlantE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 5.CampgroundswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesCHATHAMCOUNTYK5.0SWDickensRVPark2501CorinthRdMoncure(919)7088207216108L6.2WNWNewHopeOverlookCampground(JordanLake)HiddenFieldLnNCStateParks(919)362085633884L6.7NNWPoplarPointCampground(JordanLake)558BeaverCreekRdNCStateParks(919)36208561,302543M6.9WCotten'sRVCampground390CottenAcresMoncure(919)54826442525M6.9WJordanDamRVPark&Campground284MoncureSchoolRdMoncure(919)77068904444M7.3NWVistaPointCampground(JordanLake)NPeaRidgeRdNCStateParks(919)3620856420105N7.9NNWCrosswindsCampgroundandMarina(JordanLake)389FarringtonRdNCStateParks(919)3620856965241N8.9NNWParker'sCreekCampground(JordanLake)BigWoodsRdNCStateParks(919)3620586750188ChathamCountySubtotals:4,0601,338TOTAL:4,0601,338 HarrisNuclearPlantE 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 6.ParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesCHATHAMCOUNTYK4.2SSWHarrisLakeBoatLaunch(ChathamCounty)384CrossPointRdNewHill(919)7070010224102L6.3NWEbenezerChurchRecreationArea(JordanLake)EbenezerRdNCStateParks(919)36205861,127282M7.3WPoe'sRidgeRecreationArea(JordanLake)1MoncureSchoolRdU.S.ArmyCorpsofEng(919)54245019462M9.6NWRobesonCreekRecreationArea(JordanLake)HanksChapelRdNCStateParks(919)362058638997M7.7NWSeaforthRecreationArea(JordanLake)U.S.Highway64NCStateParks(919)36208561,334334N8.0NNWWhiteOakRecreationArea(JordanLake)U.S.Highway64NCStateParks(919)362085639398ChathamCountySubtotals:3,561975HARNETTCOUNTYH11.0SRavenRockStatePark2309RavenRockRoadLillington(910)89348888052HarnettCountySubtotals:8052WAKECOUNTYA2.0EHarrisLakeCountyPark2112CountyParkDrNewHill(919)3874342401182B5.1NNEGoldstarSoccerComplex2513OldUSHwy1Apex(919)7863056289131D2.0SSEHarrisLakeBoatLaunch4420BartleyHollemanRdNewHill(919)7070010224102E5.6NAmericanTobaccoTrail1309NewHill OliveChapelRdApex(919)3872117498226E9.3NEApexCommunityCenter53HunterStApex(919)24934022612E8.2NEApexElementarySchoolPark700TingenRdApex(919)856617063E9.1NEClaremontPark801EastChathamStApex(919)249340221E9.1NEHalleCulturalArtsCenter237NSalemStApex(919)24911203215E8.5NEJayceePark451NCHwy55Apex(919)2493402136E7.5NNEKellyGlenPark1701KellyGlenDrApex(919)249340221E7.6NNEKellyRoadPark1609KellyRdApex(919)2493402167E8.5NESueHeltonParkMatneyLnApex(919)249340221 HarrisNuclearPlantE 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesE8.5NEWestStreetPark108WestStApex(919)249340221F8.6EBassLakePark&RetreatCenter900BassLakeRdHollySprings(919)5572496104F6.8EHollySpringsLibrary&CulturalCenter300WBallentineStHollySprings(919)55796003215F7.3ENEJonesMemorialPark405SchoolDaysLnHollySprings(919)557960063F7.3EParrishWomblePark1201GrigsbyAveHollySprings(919)5579600240109F7.5ENEVeteransPark600BikramDrHollySprings(919)557960021F7.2EW.E.HuntCommunityCenter&Gym301StinsonAveHollySprings(919)55796003515G9.2ESEActionPark609WakeChapelRdFuquay Varina(919)5521400296135G9.6ESECarrollHowardJohnsonEEPark301WagstaffRdFuquay Varina(919)5521400115G9.9ESEFalconPark611EAcademyStFuquay Varina(919)55214003215G8.6ESEFlemingLoopSoccerComplex301FlemingLoopRdFuquay Varina(919)55214003215G9.5ESEFuquayMineralSpringPark105SpringStFuquay Varina(919)552140021G8.6EHerbertAkinsSchoolPark2255HerbertAkinsRdFuquay Varina(919)552140094G9.5ESEKintonSoccerField300WRansomStFuquay Varina(919)5521400167G9.0ESELawrenceStreetPark215LawrenceStFuquay Varina(919)552140084G9.6ESELibraryPark116SouthAikenStFuquay Varina(919)552140062G8.9ESEPineAcresCommunityCenter&Park402McleanStFuquay Varina(919)552140042G9.6ESESouthPark900SMainStFuquay Varina(919)5521400401182WakeCountySubtotals:2,6551,207TOTAL:6,2962,234Notes1DataobtainedfromRevision4of2007COLA2OnlyaportionoftheParkresidesintheEPZ,however,theentirefacilityevacuatesasaprecautionarymeasure HarrisNuclearPlantE 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 7.GolfCourseswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesWAKECOUNTYC5.1ENE12Oaks1001GreenOaksPkwyHollySprings91928536807030E9.8NEKnightsPlayGolfCenter2512Ten TenRdApex9193034653288200F8.6EDevilsRidgeGolfClub5107LinkslandDrHollySprings9193463631262180WakeCountySubtotals:620410TOTAL:620410TableE 8.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesWAKECOUNTYE8.5NEAmerica'sBestValueInn1400EWilliamsStApex(919)36286216052E8.8NNEB&BCountryGardenInn1041KellyRdApex(919)303800342E8.3NECandlewoodSuites1005MarcoDrApex(919)38785957666E8.6NEComfortInnApex1411EWilliamsStApex(919)38746006456E8.6NEHolidayInnExpress1006MarcoDrApex(919)38736362623E8.8NEValuePlaceHotel901LufkinRoadApex(919)387463611399F6.7EHamptonInn&SuitesHollySprings1516RalphStephensRdHollySprings(919)5527610116101G9.5ESEFuquayMineralSpringInnandGardenB&B333SouthMainStFuquay Varina(919)552378242G9.8ESEChateauBellevie1605SouthMainStFuquay Varina(919)622612831WakeCountySubtotals:466402TOTAL:466402 HarrisNuclearPlantE 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.OverviewofChildCareCenterswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 3.ChildCareCenterswithinSubZoneE HarrisNuclearPlantE 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.ChildCareCenterswithinSubZonesFandG HarrisNuclearPlantE 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 5.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 6.OverviewofMajorEmployerswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 7.MajorEmployerswithinSubZoneE HarrisNuclearPlantE 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 8.MajorEmployerswithinSubZonesFandG HarrisNuclearPlantE 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 9.CampgroundswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE10.OverviewofParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE11.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSubZoneE HarrisNuclearPlantE 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE12.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSubZonesFandG HarrisNuclearPlantE 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE13.GolfCourseswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE14.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ