Text

2012 Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station Emergency Planning Zone Evacuation Time Estimates Analysis. Part 1 of 2
	ML12355A142
Person / Time
Site:	Oyster Creek
Issue date:	12/31/2012
From:	; ARCADIS
To:	; Exelon Generation Co, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
	RS-12-217
	Download: ML12355A142 (69)
	v • d • e

Attachment 2012 Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station EPZ ETE Analysis ARCADIS Infrastructure Water Environment Buildings Imagine the result Evacuation Time Estimates for the Oyster Creek Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone Prepared for.Exelon Generation Kennett Square, PA Prepared by: ARCADIS U.S., Inc.1 Executive Drive Suite 303 Chelmsford Massachusetts 01824 Tel 978.937.9999 Fax 978.937.7555 Our Ref.: B0033739.0000 Date: December 2012 This document is intended only for the use of the individual or entity for which it was prepared and may contain information that is privileged, confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law. Any dissemination, distribution or copying of this document is strictly prohibited.

ARCADIS Executive Summary Executive Summary This report documents the approach and presents the results of the Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) study performed by ARCADIS for the Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station (OCNGS) in Lacey Township, Ocean County, New Jersey. The study reflects the current definition of the Emergency Planning Zone, which is the region within a nominal 10-mile distance of OCNGS. The most recent previous study of evacuation time estimates for OCNGS was performed in 2003. The present study was performed using population data from the 2010 census.PTV Vision TM software was used to perform evacuation modeling for different scenarios.

The PTV Vision traffic simulation software package includes VISUM (macroscopic traffic simulation) and VISSIM (microscopic traffic simulation).

VISUM is a comprehensive, flexible software system for transportation planning, travel demand modeling, and network data management.

VISSIM is capable of performing detailed microscopic simulation of traffic and can model any type of traffic signal control and geometric configuration.

The road network used in the evacuation simulations consisted of designated evacuation routes plus any additional roadways needed to accurately simulate conditions during an evacuation.

Roadway capacities were determined using NAVTEQ T M digital data, updated by ARCADIS based on actual road and intersection data collected in the field in 2011.Evacuees were generally assumed to proceed out of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ)via recommended evacuation routes and to make their way to designated reception centers after leaving the EPZ.The EPZ for OCNGS is contained in Ocean County, New Jersey. Based on the 2010 census, the estimated permanent resident population in the EPZ is 143,233. With an added seasonal population of 69,173, the summer season population in the EPZ totals 212,406. The permanent resident population in the EPZ has increased by 14 percent over the 2000 census value of 125,253. The estimated summer population for the 2003 study was 188,416, so the summer resident population increased by 13 percent.The zones within a nominal 2-mile distance from OCNGS have 12,804 residents (winter)and 18,242 (summer).

The zones from 2-5 miles contain about 25 percent of the EPZ resident population, and the zones beyond 5 miles contain about 66 percent.The transient population, which includes large workplaces, recreational facilities and hotels/motels, was estimated at 6,271 persons for a winter weekday and 18,034 persons for a summer weekend. This difference illustrates the strong influence of tourism and beach-related activity on population in the EPZ. The special facilities population, including nursing homes and hospitals, was estimated at 3,064 persons (residents plus staff) for E-1 ARCADIS Executive Summary weekdays, and 1,823 for nights and weekends.

The estimated population of schools and day care centers for a winter weekday is 30,662, including children and staff. These population estimates include intrinsic double counting, as some persons in the transient and special facility populations are also included in the permanent and seasonal resident counts. Thus, evacuation times using these population figures are considered conservative.

Vehicle demand for the resident population was developed based on estimated vehicle occupancy, using data obtained from a telephone survey of EPZ residents.

The vehicle occupancy factor estimated from survey responses is 1.84 persons per vehicle, which represents 1.40 vehicles per household.

For the 2003 study, vehicle demand for permanent residents was 2.35 persons per vehicle (1.1 vehicles per household).

For summer seasonal residents, estimated vehicle demand is 3 persons per vehicle (2.5 vehicles per household).

For the 2003 study, vehicle occupancy for summer residents was 3 persons per vehicle (2.67 vehicles per household).

Vehicle demand for the transient population was estimated using vehicle occupancy factors ranging from 1.0 person per vehicle for the workforce population up to 3.0 persons per vehicle for some recreational areas. Vehicle demand for the school population was based on bus occupancy of 48 persons. For nursing homes, vehicle occupancy is 20 persons per bus or van for residents, and two persons per ambulance for non-ambulatory patients.

For nights and weekends, all facility staff would accompany patients; during weekdays, one vehicle per person was assigned for the additional staff. Total vehicle demand for all population categories ranges from 81,098 (winter night) to 110,543 (summer weekday).Vehicle demand was also assigned to account for the potential "shadow evacuation" of the population residing immediately outside the EPZ, to a distance of 15 miles. The permanent resident population within this region is 137,801. It was assumed that 20 percent of the population in this region would evacuate.

The occupancy factor for EPZ residents (1.84 persons per vehicle) was applied to estimate vehicle demand for this population.

Shadow evacuees residing outside the EPZ add vehicle demand of 14,978 vehicles.Evacuation times were estimated for evacuation of the entire EPZ for winter weekday (daytime and evening), winter weekend day, summer weekday (daytime and evening), and summer weekend cases under fair weather conditions.

The weekday daytime cases were also evaluated for adverse weather conditions (snow and rain, respectively, for winter and summer).A set of "staged evacuation" scenarios was also evaluated.

Under a staged evacuation scenario, only the population within the 2-mile zones closest to OCNGS would evacuate initially; evacuation of surrounding zones would be initiated after most traffic from the 2-mile E-2 ARCADIS Executive Summary zones has cleared. The purpose of evaluating these scenarios is to assess the potential reduction in evacuation times that might be achieved for the population at greatest risk.Simulations were also performed to assess the potential impact of population growth on predicted evacuation times. This sensitivity analysis is used to define a threshold population figure that would trigger another ETE update study.Evacuation times for the general population are summarized in Table E-1. For normal weather, ETEs are up to 8 hours9.259259e-5 days 0.00222 hours 1.322751e-5 weeks 3.044e-6 months for 90 percent of vehicles to evacuate the full 10-mile EPZ, and 10 hours1.157407e-4 days 0.00278 hours 1.653439e-5 weeks 3.805e-6 months 5 minutes for 100 percent to evacuate.

The case with the longest ETEs for the full EPZ is Summer Weekday. With adverse weather, the predicted ETEs are about 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months longer. The ETEs to evacuate only the 2-mile zone are 2:35 to 3:35 (90 percent)and 3:00 to 4:35 (100 percent).

The ETEs to evacuate all zones within 5 miles of the plant are 4:40 to 6:40 (90 percent) and 6:30 to 9:05 (100 percent).The 90 percent ETEs from the current study are about 1 hour1.157407e-5 days 2.777778e-4 hours 1.653439e-6 weeks 3.805e-7 months longer than corresponding 100 percent times from the 2003 study.The ETEs for the full EPZ reflect significant traffic congestion in the zones more than 5 miles from OCNGS. ETEs are very similar for summer and winter scenarios, which implies that beach traffic is not contributing significantly to vehicle demand on the routes that take longest to clear.Table E-1: Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Oyster Creek Station EPZ Summer Winter Midweek Daytime i Daytime Weekend Evening Wieeed vn Mideek Daytime Scenario:

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal Evacuation 90 Percent Evacuation Time Area 2-mile Zone 3:05 3:35 2:40 2:35 2:35 3:10 2:05 2:05 5-mile Zone 5:45 6:40 5:20 5:15 5:15 6:35 4:40 4:40 10-mile EPZ 8:00 9:15 7:30 7:30 7:50 9:55 7:15 7:15 100 Percent Evacuation Time 2-mile Zone 3:45 4:15 3:20 3:10 3:40 4:35 3:15 3:00 5-mile Zone 7:55 9:05 7:25 7:10 7:15 9:05 6:35 6:30 10-mile EPZ 10:05 11:40 9:20 9:10 9:50 12:25 9:15 9:10 E-3 ARCADIS Table of Contents 1. Introduction 1-1 1.1 General 1-1 1.2 Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) 1-2 1.3 Designated Reception Centers 1-3 1.4 Overview of Changes from Previous ETE Study 1-3 2. Methodology and Assumptions 2-1 2.1 Sources of Data and General Assumptions 2-1 2.2 Interaction with Agencies 2-4 2.3 Summary of Methodology for Traffic Simulation 2-4 2.4 Conditions Modeled 2-5 2.4.1 Week Day 2-5 2.4.2 Week Night 2-6 2.4.3 Weekend 2-7 2.4.4 Special Event Consideration 2-7 2.4.5 Sensitivity to Population Growth and Roadway Impact 2-7 3. Population and Vehicle Demand Estimation 3-1 3.1 Permanent Residents 3-1 3.1.1 Auto-Owning Permanent Population 3-2 3.1.2 Transport-Dependent Permanent Population 3-2 3.2 Seasonal Residents 3-3 3.3 Transient Population 3-3 3.4 Special Facilities Population 3-5 3.4.1 Medical, Nursing Care and Correctional Facilities 3-5 3.4.2 Schools and Day Care 3-5 3.5 Emergency Response Planning Area Population Totals 3-6 4. Evacuation Roadway Network 4-1 4.1 Network Definition 4-1 ARCADIS Table of Contents 4.2 Evacuation Route Descriptions 4-1 4.3 Characterizing the Evacuation Network 4-1 5. Evacuation Time Estimate Methodology 5-1 5.1 Evacuation Analysis Cases 5-1 5.2 Initial Notification 5-2 5.3 Transportation Dependent Population 5-2 5.4 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions 5-3 5.4.1 Permanent and Seasonal Population 5-3 5.4.2 Transient Population 5-4 5.4.3 Special Facilities 5-4 5.5 Evacuation Simulation 5-6 5.5.1 General Structure 5-6 5.5.2 Simulation Process 5-7 6. Analysis of Evacuation Times 6-1 6.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary 6-1 6.2 Comparison with Previous Study 6-1 6.3 All Conditions 6-1 6.4 Staged Evacuation Scenarios 6-2 6.5 Sensitivity to Population Growth and Roadway Impact 6-2 6.5.1 Population Growth 6-2 6.5.2 Roadway Impact 6-3 6.6 Performance Metrics for Simulation Model 6-4 6.7 ETE for Transit Dependent Special Facilities and Schools 6-4 7. Traffic Control Recommendations 7-1 7.1 General 7-1 7.2 Evacuation Access Control Locations 7-1 7.3 Traffic Management Locations and Tactics to Facilitate Evacuation 7-1 ii ARCADIS Table of Contents 8. References 8-1 Tables Table E-1: Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Oyster Creek Station EPZ E-3 Table 1-1: Permanent Resident Population in the Oyster Creek EPZ 1-7 Table 1-2: Designated Reception Centers for Evacuation 1-8 Table 1-3: ETE Comparison 1-9 Table 3-1: Resident Population and Vehicle Demand by EPZ Sub-Area 3-7 Table 3-2: Transient Population and Vehicle Demand within the Oyster Creek EPZ 3-8 Table 3-3: Population and Vehicle Demand for Schools and Special Facilities in the Oyster Creek EPZ 3-9 Table 3-4: Summary of Population and Vehicle Demand within the Oyster Creek EPZ 3-10 Table 4-1: Oyster Creek EPZ Primary Evacuation Routes 4-3 Table 6-1: Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Oyster Creek General Population 6-6 Table 6-2: Evacuation Times for General Population for Keyhole Zones 6-7 Table 6-3: Results for Staged Evacuation for 5-Mile Downwind Zones (Stage 1 ends at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months 35 minutes) 6-8 Table 6-4: Summary of Network Performance (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather) 6-15 Table 6-5& ETE for Special Facilities, Oyster Creek EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather) 6-16 Table 6-6: ETE for Schools in Oyster Creek EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather) 6-17 Table 7-1: Predicted Queuing at Major Intersections (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather) 7-2 iii ARCADIS Table of Contents Figures Figure 1-1. Oyster Creek EPZ Area Figure 1-2. Resident Population by Sector within 15 Miles of Oyster Creek Station Figure 4-1. Designated Evacuation Routes for Oyster Creek EPZ Figure 5-1. Departure Time Distributions for the Oyster Creek EPZ Figure 5-2. Evacuation Modeling and Simulation using PTV Vision Suite Figure 6-1. Departure Curves for Stage 2 Zones, Oyster Creek Figure 6-2. Oyster Sensitivity of ETE to Population Growth (Summer Weekday, Normal Weather, Full EPZ)Figure 6-3. Oyster Creek Predicted Traffic Volume by Link with Full Network (Summer Weekday, Normal Weather, Full EPZ)Figure 6-4. Oyster Creek Predicted Traffic Volume by Link with GSP SB south of 72 Link Removed (Summer Weekday, Normal Weather, Full EPZ)Figure 6-5. Time Distribution of Vehicles on the Network (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Figure 6-6. Comparison of Vehicle Mobilization and Departure Rates (total vehicles 86,225)1-5 1-6 4-4 5-5 5-6 6-9 6-10 6-11 6-12 6-13 6-14 Appendices A Transient and Special Facility Population Data B Telephone Survey of EPZ Residents C Roadway Network Map and Data Table D Maps of Roadway Network Showing Average Hourly Travel Speed by Road Link (Full EPZ, Winter Day, Fair Weather)iv ARCADIS List of Acronyms and Abbreviations Table of Contents ADT Average daily traffic BAO ESRI Business Analyst Online EAS Emergency Alert System EPZ Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone ERPA Emergency Response Protection Area ETE Evacuation time estimate GIS Geographic information system GPS Global Positioning System LOS Level-of-service NJOEM New Jersey Office of Emergency Management NRC Nuclear Regulatory Commission OCNGS Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station PAR Protective Action RecommendationProtective Action Recommendation V

Exelon Generation ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 1. Introduction 1.1 General Evacuation time studies analyze the manner in which the population within the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) surrounding a nuclear power plant site would evacuate during a radiological emergency.

Evacuation time studies provide licensees and State and local governments with site-specific information helpful for protective action decision-making.

The studies estimate the time necessary to evacuate the EPZ for a range of evacuation scenarios.

Analysis of the evacuation simulation results also identifies locations where traffic management and control measures can facilitate the evacuation, and may identify unique evacuation constraints or conditions.

Estimates of the time required to evacuate from areas around nuclear power plant sites are required for all operating plants in the United States. Federal guidance has been prepared to outline the format and content of these evacuation time estimates (NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 (Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), 1980), NUREG/CR-4831 (NRC, 1992) and NUREG/CR-7002 (NRC, 2011)).Evacuation time estimate (ETE) studies were last updated for the Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station (OCNGS) Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ in 2003 (Earth Tech, 2003).The guidance presented in NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the evacuation time estimates should be updated as local conditions change, but at least once each decade, following release of the federal census. The current update study was prompted by the issuance of revised ETE guidance (CR-7002) and the availability of population data from the 2010 census. Census data indicate that the population residing within the EPZ increased by 17,490 between 2000 and 2010. The estimated 2010 population of the EPZ is 143,233, a 14 percent population increase since 2000. (Population data are discussed further below in section 1.4.)The evacuation time estimates have been developed using current population, local roadway network characteristics and the PTV VisionTM traffic simulation software package to perform evacuation modeling for different scenarios.

PTV Vision includes the VISSIM (microscopic traffic simulation) and VISUM (macroscopic traffic simulation) models.Evacuation times have been estimated for various areas, times and weather conditions, as outlined in CR-7002. These evacuation times represent the times required for completing the following actions: 0 Public notification; 1-1 Exelon Generation V ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates" Preparation and mobilization; and* Actual movement out of the EPZ (i.e., on-road travel time, including delays associated with vehicle queuing).1.2 Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ)This report describes the analyses undertaken, and the results obtained, in a study to update the existing Evacuation Time Estimates for OCNGS. The emergency response plan is designed to protect the health and safety of the public in the event that an evacuation is ordered as a protective action in response to an accident at OCNGS.The Oyster Creek site is located along the New Jersey shore in Lacey Township, Ocean County, New Jersey, about 9 miles south of Toms River. The location of the plant is shown in Figure 1-1. The entire EPZ is contained in Ocean County. The municipalities included in the EPZ are identified in Table 1-1.The plume exposure pathway EPZ is the geographic area surrounding a nuclear power plant within which the NRC requires advance planning for evacuation or other short-term protective actions in the event of a radiological emergency.

The EPZ for Oyster Creek consists of the area within an approximate 10-mile radius of Oyster Creek.The EPZ for Oyster Creek is subdivided into a total of 20 Emergency Response Planning Areas (ERPAs). The ERPAs are the basic units for which protective action recommendations are issued. ERPA boundaries generally follow major roadways and geographic (township and borough) boundaries, and reflect distance and direction from OCNGS. The distance ranges of concern are 0-2 miles, 2-5 miles, and beyond 5 miles.EPZ and ERPA boundaries are shown in Figure 1-1. (ERPAs 18, 19 and 20 are entirely water and have no resident population.

ERPA 18 and 19 are sections of Bamegat Bay, south and north, respectively, from OCNGS; ERPA 20 is the Atlantic Ocean, out to a distance of 10 miles.) The Sub-Areas are described in more detail in Section 3.Based on the 2010 census, the estimated permanent resident population in the EPZ is 143,233. With an added seasonal population of 58,682, the summer season population in the EPZ totals 212,406. The permanent resident population in the EPZ has increased by 14 percent over the 2000 census value of 125,253. The estimated summer population for the 2003 study was 188,416, so the summer resident population increased by 13 percent.1-2 Exelon Generation 9 ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates The zones within a nominal 2-mile distance from OCNGS have 12,804 residents (winter)and 18,242 (summer).

The zones from 2-5 miles contain about 25 percent of the EPZ resident population, and the zones beyond 5 miles contain about 66 percent. The population is concentrated in the area extending east from the Garden State Parkway to Bamegat Bay (ERPAs 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 10 and 15). South Toms River extends west of the parkway in ERPA 14, and Manahawkin is west of the parkway in ERPA 6. The western side of the EPZ extends into the New Jersey Pinelands National Reserve, a very sparsely populated region that includes part of ERPAs 9, 11, 12 and 13.NRC guidance requires consideration of potential "shadow evacuation" of the population residing immediately outside the EPZ, to a distance of 15 miles. The permanent resident population within this region is 137,801. It was assumed that 20 percent of the population in this region would evacuate.

The occupancy factor for EPZ residents (1.84 persons per vehicle) was applied to estimate vehicle demand for this population.

Shadow evacuees residing outside the EPZ add vehicle demand of 14,978 vehicles.

Most of this population resides immediately north of the EPZ, with smaller residential areas north of ERPA 16, south of ERPA 17, and south of ERPA 7. A map showing the population by distance and direction sector within 15 miles of Oyster Creek Station is provided in Figure 1-2. (Due to roundoff errors that propagate when sector boundaries cut across census block boundaries, the population numbers disagree slightly between Figure 1-1 and Figure 1-2.)1.3 Designated Reception Centers The emergency response evacuation plans for OCNGS direct residents of each community within the EPZ to evacuate to specified reception centers. If evacuation is initiated while schools are in session, students will be transported directly to designated Host Schools, and families are instructed to meet up with the students at those locations.

The designated reception centers for individual ERPAs are listed in Table 1-2. Five of the reception centers are located to the north of the EPZ; only Pinelands High School in Little Egg Harbor Township is south of the EPZ. The roadway network used to develop evacuation time estimates includes the major roadways recommended to the public as evacuation routes from individual communities to designated reception centers. The roadway network is described in detail in Section 4.1.4 Overview of Changes from Previous ETE Study The changes in residential population within the EPZ are summarized in Table 1-1. The revised NRC guidance and newly acquired data led to a number of other changes in the 1-3 Exelon Generation V ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates ETE methodology and assumptions.

Table 1-3 provides a summary comparing the main features and assumptions of the current study to the 2003 ETE study. The telephone survey of EPZ residents provides a new basis for estimating vehicle occupancy and departure times, while new NRC guidance has specified different assumptions regarding background and "shadow" traffic. The ETE methodology and assumptions for the current study are discussed in greater detail in following sections of the report.The revised vehicle occupancy for residents (1.84 persons per vehicle, based on survey), revised departure times for schools and special facilities (no "early warning")

and the revised departure time curves for residents (based on survey responses and estimated time for warning diffusion) are expected to have the greatest influence on estimated evacuation times. The "shadow evacuation" adds vehicle demand of 36,748 vehicles in the area immediately outside the EPZ. Each of these issues is discussed in more detail in following sections of the report.1-4 I C.d..C.. CWV6 <a% m,.I 2010 ERPA13 J'll E PA Poulation_____ ERPA9 9273 FE___ ERPA2 210 ERPA5 460 ERPA6 17821"RP 161 a ERPA 7 14532",,cr ERPA8 17r178 ERPA 3 10890 ,.ERPAO 364940 ERPA 5 112 ERPAl 347,21 ERPA 14 104520 ERPA S 10991 ERPA 16 495 ERPA 17 3;032 S.. TOTAL: 143,Z33 2 4 MiwsIV TOystee Cre Pln ING V2AR(Township Boundary mm.Bounary"OYSTER CREEK Sub-Area BoundaryPOF l ERAI EPZ Boundary WS$hWUT-36,2S1 PZ 7,20: OUT 6,311 UT DISTANCE POPULATION DISTANCE POPULATION EPZ 1 1,363 NA EPZ 2 9,023 NA EPZ 3 13,672 NA EPZ 4 12,972 NA EPZ 5 12,009 NA EPZ 6 12,589 NA EPZ 7 16,325 NA EPZ 8 19,649 NA EPZ 9 18,876 NA EPZ 10 18,242 OUT 10 1,654 EPZ 11 8,042 OUT 11 27,787 EPZ 12 480 OUT 12 35,158 OUT 13 22,559 OUT 14 25,373 OUT 15 25,262 EPZ TOTAL: 143,242 EP2-15 TOTAL: 137,793 TOTAL POPULATION:

281,035 PZ OUT 561 EPZ 1,.44)LOT 6 NOTE:* EPZ total population varies from 2011 draft report totals by less thanl% due to the rounding of population calculations from additional block processing.

Plant to 1 mile population not summarized in any sector direction op. s10.5 Map -" Inst Son.: AtOs ottin.

Owl .152,1 kOGIS 010 h W AAl t O DapeS p. 4rb5,Ie l " 0(e uof flWPOF< %ARCADIS 1,9 Legend Oyster Creek EPZ Boundar Sectors -15 mile Sector Direction ATO I EPI miles ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 1-1: Permanent Resident Population in the Oyster Creek EPZ ERPA Townships and Boroughs Census 2000a Census 2010b Percent____ ___ ___ ____ ___ ___ ___Change 1 Lacey 8,817 9,273 5.2 2 Ocean 3,535 3,531 -0.1 3 Barnegat, Ocean 7,811 10,900 39.5 4 Barnegat, Ocean 2,223 4,608 107.3 5 Lacey, Ocean 24 11 N/A 6 Lacey 16,008 17,821 11.3 7 Bamegat, Stafford 11,597 14,532 25.3 8 Barnegat, Stafford 13,197 17,178 30.2 9 Berkeley, Lacey 251 1,890 653.0 Beachwood, Berkeley, Ocean 10 Gate, Pine Beach, South Toms 33,163 36,940 11.4 River 11 Barnegat, Stafford 1,216 1,142 -6.1 12 Lacey 259 342 32.0 13 Berkeley, Lacey 1 27 N/A Beachwood, Berkeley, Dover, 14 South Toms River 13,749 10,520 -23.5 15 Dover, Island Heights 10,908 10,991 0.8 16 Berkeley (Seaside Peninsula south 661 495 -25.1 of Seaside Park Borough)17 Barnegat Light, Harvey Cedars, 1,833 3,032 65.4 Long Beach (north of Surf City)EPZ total 125,253 143,233 +14.4%Sources: a) 2000 census data from 2003 ETE study report b) 2010 census data (block level)1-7 Q ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 1-2: Designated Reception Centers for Evacuation Reception Center' Evacuating EIRPA~b Lakewood High School, Lakewood ERPA 6 Jackson Liberty High School, Jackson ERPA 1, 5, 9,12,13 Brick Township High School, Brick ERPA 10 Manchester Middle School, Manchester ERPA 14 Manchester High School, Manchester ERPA 15,16 Pinelands High School, Tuckerton ERPA 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 11, 17'Source: Emergency Planning for Oyster Creek Generating Station, public information brochure prepared by Exelon Generation, 2012/2013 b ERPAs are directed to different reception centers, depending on which keyhole scenario is selected.1-8 Q ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 1-3: ETE Comparison ETE Element 2003 ETE Current Study Permanent Residents-Total population

-125,253 -143,233-Vehicle occupancy

-2.35 persons per vehicle -1.84 persons per vehicle (persons per vehicle)Transit dependent Evacuation of transit dependent-Population estimate population was not addressed in -2,150-Number of buses 2003 study -88 bus trips-Number of ambulances

-No ambulances Transient facilities (winter night/peak summer day) -(winter night/peak summer day)-Estimated population

-1,604 / 16,705 5,137 /18,034-Vehicle demand -828/7,416

-3,062 / 8,061-Adjust for double-count

-Adjustment for workers -Adjust for selected facilities Special facilities (winter weekday) (winter weekday)-Estimated population

-2,205 -3,064-number bus, van -45 bus/van -80 bus/van-Ambulance, other -Not identified

-54 non-ambulatory patients Schools and daycare (winter weekday) school+daycare (winter weekday)-student population

-29,882 (includes staff) -27,705 / 2,957 school/daycare

-Number of buses -600 bus/van -455 buses, 335 vans Background traffic None Average traffic by time of day Shadow evacuation None 20% of resident population outside (assumed basis) designated zones Special event(s) None (peak summer day) None (peak summer day)Scenarios

-Winter weekday -Weekday (winter, summer)-Winter weeknight

-Weeknight (winter, summer)-Summer weekend -Weekend (winter, summer)-Both normal and adverse -Adverse weather weekday only weather for all three cases -Staged evacuation (weekday)Adverse weather Snow for winter, rain for summer Snow for winter, rain for summer Evacuation model name NetVac2 PTV Vision VISUM, VISSIM and version Departure times -Residential based on literature

-Warning based on literature

-Transient based on literature

-Residential based on survey-Specials based on notification at -Transient based on survey alert -Specials notified with public Evacuation times Estimates provided for 100% Estimates provided for 90 and 100%1-9 Exelon Generation V ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 2. Methodology and Assumptions 2.1 Sources of Data and General Assumptions The following data sources were reviewed and assumptions made in order to develop the appropriate population and roadway databases used for the evacuation analysis: " Population estimates for permanent residents were developed from 2010 U.S.Census Bureau data. Independent estimates developed from 2010 census data were provided by New Jersey Office of Emergency Management (NJOEM)." Estimates for seasonal residents were developed from 2010 United States Census Bureau data on housing units. Census data identify the number of seasonal housing units (vacant housing units for "seasonal or occasional use") at different geographic levels (e.g., by township, census tract, block group, block). Assumed 8 persons per seasonal housing unit." Population estimates for major employers were developed from the ESRI BAO list and the facility list from the 2003 study report. ARCADIS conducted internet searches and telephone surveys to estimate facility employment and staffing levels for different scenarios.

Only facilities with potential staffing level of at least 50 persons per work shift were pursued.* Information relating to hotels, motels and recreational facilities was obtained from tourism websites, 2011 AAA TourBook listings, and the 2003 study report. For parks, visitation information was obtained from state park agencies." Current population estimates for schools were obtained primarily from state emergency response agency, plus enrollment information available on the internet.* Lists of hospitals, rest homes and incarceration facilities were obtained from the state emergency management agency.* The staffing levels at OCNGS reflect estimated peak personnel onsite during outage conditions.

These data were provided by Exelon Generation.

Initial estimates of roadway characteristics were obtained from the NAVTEQ database.

Roadway geometric and operational data were compiled based on field surveys performed by ARCADIS in 2011.2-1 Exelon Generation Va ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates* Average traffic volumes by time of day for weekday and weekend for designated evacuation routes were obtained from state transportation agencies.

These data were used to assign background traffic volumes for the roadway network. It was assumed that access control would be established within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months following the public notice to evacuate.* Preparation and mobilization times for the permanent resident population were developed based on the results of a telephone survey, combined with published time estimates for warning diffusion.

The survey provided estimates of the time to depart from home following notification, and commuting times for household members who would return from work before departing.

Median and 90 percent departure times for residents are longer than the times assumed in the previous study." Departure times for transient facilities were estimated assuming relatively prompt evacuation of most workplaces and recreational facilities once notification is received.

The distribution of departure times also reflects information gathered from the telephone survey of EPZ residents, as discussed in Section 3. Median and 90 percent departure times for transient facilities are longer than the times assumed in the previous study." The evacuation time estimates represent the time required to evacuate the EPZ and designated analysis areas and include the time required for initial notification." Evacuation time estimates are presented for 90 percent and 100 percent of evacuating vehicles.

It is assumed that all persons within the EPZ area will evacuate.

For the 100 percent evacuation time, evacuation of the EPZ will be considered complete after all evacuating vehicles are outside of the EPZ or the designated evacuation area.* The general public will evacuate using designated evacuation routes and will proceed to the reception centers listed in Table 1-2 after leaving the EPZ. When schools are in session, children attending school will be transported directly to designated Host Schools.* It is assumed that existing lane utilization will prevail during the course of the evacuation.

Traffic control signals will be over-ridden or converted to flashing mode as necessary to give preference to flow on all major outbound roadways.

It 2-2 Exelon Generation V ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates is also assumed that State and municipal personnel will restrict unauthorized access into the EPZ, consistent with existing traffic management plans." The evacuation analysis cases are described in Section 2.3 and represent a range of conditions, per guidance presented in CR-7002. These cases have been chosen to provide information for an appropriate range of conditions (i.e., low, typical and high population; fair and adverse weather) to guide the protective action decision-making process.* A "Special Event" scenario was not included for the Oyster Creek EPZ. The beaches in the EPZ are a prime tourist attraction, and peak traffic is closely associated with the beaches. Summer scenarios reflect beach facilities and seasonal housing occupied to capacity, so these scenarios reflect as great a challenge for traffic management in the EPZ as any other events that will be encountered during the year.* Vehicle occupancy rates used for the various population categories are as follows:-Permanent residents

-1.84 persons per vehicle, based on telephone survey results. Seasonal residents:

2.5 persons per vehicle.-Major places of employment

-1 vehicle per employee.-Hotels/Motels

-1 vehicle (1 to 2 persons) per occupied room.-Recreational areas -1 vehicle (3 persons) per campsite; 1.5 persons per vehicle at sports arenas, shopping centers, visitor centers and museums; 3 persons per vehicle at amusement parks.-Schools -45 students and 3 staff per bus; one vehicle per additional staff person.-Hospitals/

Nursing Homes/ Correctional Facilities

-1 person per ambulance/medical van for non-ambulatory patients and 20 people per bus or van for ambulatory residents.

2-3 Exelon Generation ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates* Vehicle demand for most shopping centers and athletic venues was adjusted to reduce double-counting, assuming that 50 percent of attendees (and staff) reside in the EPZ and 50 percent of those would return home before evacuating.

The transport-dependent population will be evacuated by bus or ambulance through efforts coordinated by state and municipal emergency preparedness officials.

Adverse weather refers to moderate to heavy rainstorms for summer conditions, and a moderate snowstorm for winter conditions.

2.2 Interaction with Agencies Emergency management agencies responsible for planning and implementing the emergency response procedures during a radiological emergency were consulted during the development of this ETE study. NJOEM and cooperating emergency response agencies for Ocean County were contacted to obtain information regarding special and transient facilities in the EPZ, transportation resources available to evacuate special facilities, and the transport dependent general public. Those agencies were also consulted to identify any major events that take place within the EPZ that should be considered for a Special Event scenario.

NJOEM provided their own estimates of residential population for the EPZ based on 2010 census data, and a map of designated evacuation routes and reception centers. NJOEM reviewed the draft report and the facility databases used in this study.Representative background traffic volumes for the EPZ roadway network were obtained from state and county transportation agencies.2.3 Summary of Methodology for Traffic Simulation The evacuation time estimates developed for the Oyster Creek EPZ are based upon a time distribution of evacuation events as opposed to a summation of sequential events.This methodology assumes that the various time components in an evacuation (i.e., the time associated with preparation, mobilization, etc.) overlap and occur within certain time ranges. The time distribution approach is based upon assumptions consistent with the NRC guidance of CR-7002.Trip generation times are used to develop vehicle loading curves for different population types within the permanent, transient, and special facility populations.

A trip 2-4 Exelon Generation V ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates generation time consists of two main components:

warning diffusion time and mobilization time. Warning diffusion time is the time it takes for people to receive an emergency notification.

The type of warning systems employed in the EPZ, such as emergency alert system (EAS), and sirens affects the distribution of warning times.Availability of more warning systems leads to faster warning diffusion to the public.Mobilization time is the time between the receipt of notification and when individuals leave for evacuation.

Mobilization time depends on the type of population and activity.Warning diffusion time and mobilization time distributions are used to develop composite loading distribution or trip generation curves for different population segments.

Trip generation times for transit dependent facilities, special facilities and schools were developed separately from those for the general public.2.4 Conditions Modeled Pursuant to the guidance in CR-7002 and NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, evacuation time estimates have been prepared for a range of temporal, seasonal and weather conditions.

Estimates have been prepared for weekday, weeknight and weekend scenarios during winter and summer. All scenarios are simulated with fair weather conditions; weekday scenarios are also simulated assuming adverse weather. Fair weather refers to conditions where roadways are clear and dry, and visibility is not impaired.

Adverse weather during summer periods is defined as heavy rain, with impaired visibility; roadway capacities are reduced by 10 percent and speeds are reduced by 15 percent. Adverse weather during winter periods is defined as a snowstorm condition where roadway capacities and speeds are reduced by 15 percent.The various population components which have been incorporated in the evacuation scenarios are summarized below: 2.4.1 Week Day This situation represents a typical weekday period with the work force is at a full daytime level. During winter, schools are in session. Vehicle demand estimates for weekday scenarios reflect the following conditions:

Most permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence; 2-5 Exelon Generation V ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates" Major work places are fully staffed at typical daytime levels;* OCNGS staffing is at an estimated peak daytime level, representative of operation during outage conditions;

Schools and daycares are at current enrollment;

Hospitals and nursing homes are at current enrollment or typical occupancy, with staffing at weekday levels;* Hotel/motel facilities are occupied at peak (winter or summer) levels; and" Recreational facilities are at winter or summer weekday levels.2.4.2 Week Night This situation reflects a typical night period when most permanent residents are home and the work force is at evening shift level. Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the following:

Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence;

Major work places are at typical evening levels;* OCNGS staffing is at an estimated peak night-time level;* Day schools and daycares are closed;" Hospitals and nursing homes are at current enrollment or typical occupancy, and staffing is at typical night-time levels;" Hotel and motel facilities are occupied at (winter or summer) weekday levels; and" Recreational facilities are at typical (winter or summer) evening levels. Many are closed.2-6 Exelon Generation ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 2.4.3 Weekend The weekend scenario represents a daytime period when most residents are at home and major work places are at typical weekend levels. Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the following:

Residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence;" Major work places are at typical weekend levels;* Day schools and daycares are closed;* Hospitals and nursing homes are occupied and staffed at weekend levels;* Hotel and motel facilities are occupied at weekend (winter or summer) levels; and" Recreational facilities are at (winter or peak summer) weekend levels.2.4.4 Special Event Consideration For the OCNGS EPZ, peak traffic demand is associated with the summer beach season, specifically a hot summer weekend. There is no singular "event" that leads to significantly higher traffic in the EPZ on one summer weekend versus another; the strongest factors are the weather and ocean temperatures.

A separate Special Event scenario was not developed for OCNGS.2.4.5 Sensitivity to Population Growth and Roadway Impact Additional scenarios were evaluated to assess the sensitivity of ETEs to population growth and roadway impact. These sensitivity cases used the Summer Weekday, Normal Weather case for the Full EPZ as the base case. The population growth analysis is used to determine how rapidly the ETE would increase as the resident population in the EPZ is increased.

For the roadway impact scenario, a major evacuation route is removed or reduced in capacity.

Specifically, one of the five highest volume roadways is removed from service, or capacity is reduced by one lane (for a multi-lane, limited-access roadway such as an interstate highway).

A more detailed description of the sensitivity analysis is provided in Section 6.5.2-7 Exelon Generation ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 3. Population and Vehicle Demand Estimation The development of vehicle demand estimates for the Oyster Creek EPZ consisted of two primary steps. The first step was the determination of the number and distribution of the population to be evacuated.

The second step was the determination of the appropriate number of vehicles for each of the population categories.

Federal guidance (CR-7002) indicates that three population categories should be considered:

permanent residents, transients, and persons in schools and special facilities (such as medical facilities/

nursing homes, and day care facilities).

The methodology used to develop the total population and vehicle demand estimates within the Oyster Creek EPZ incorporates intrinsic double counting.

For example, a portion of the identified employees and visitors to recreational areas are also permanent residents within the EPZ. In addition, school children are counted in the resident population, but are also counted in the special facility population.

While population and vehicle demand estimates incorporate some adjustments for double-counting, the estimates are considered to be conservative (i.e., they over-estimate actual population and vehicle levels which may be in the area at any given time).Population and vehicle demand estimates for each of the population categories are summarized below.3.1 Permanent Residents Permanent residents are those persons identified by the census as having a permanent residence within the EPZ. The Census 2010 population data for census tracts, block groups and blocks were used to determine the permanent resident population within the EPZ and within each municipality and Sub-Area.

The allocation of the resident population to entry nodes on the roadway network was based on detailed census block maps.An estimated 143,233 persons reside permanently within the Oyster Creek EPZ.Table 3-1 presents the resident population and vehicle demand by ERPA. The 17 EPZ Sub-Areas are defined based on distance and direction from OCNGS; zone boundaries generally follow geographic (township and borough) boundaries and major highways.The 2-mile ring ERPAs 1 and 2 cover the regions within 2 miles of OCNGS north and south, respectively, from the plant. ERPA 1 includes Forked River. The 5-mile zones proceed clockwise around the EPZ: ERPA 3 is south of ERPA 2 and east of the 3-1 Exelon Generation ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Garden State Parkway (GSP); ERPA 4 is west of the GSP; ERPA 5 is north of ERPA 4; ERPA 9 is north of ERPA 5 and west of the GSP, west of NNW of OCNGS; ERPA 6 is east of ERPAs 5 and 9, and north of ERPA 1.The 10-mile zones again proceed clockwise around the EPZ, starting with ERPA 7, south of ERPA 3, proceeding to ERPAs, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 10 and 15. ERPA 16 is the portion of the Seaside Peninsula from Seaside Park Borough south; ERPA 17 is the portion of Long Beach Island from Ship Bottom north. ERPA 14 has the largest permanent resident population (36,940).

Among the 5-mile zones, ERPA 6 has the largest population (17,821).A telephone survey of EPZ residents was conducted to obtain information relating to how many vehicles residents would use to evacuate and how long it would take them to depart following notification.

The survey questionnaire and a summary of survey results are provided in Appendix B.3.1.1 Auto-Owning Permanent Population Vehicle demand associated with the permanent resident population was estimated based on telephone survey responses.

After adjusting survey responses to reflect the actual age distribution of the EPZ, the vehicle occupancy factor is 1.84 persons per vehicle, which corresponds to 1.4 vehicles per household.

Total vehicle demand for permanent residents is 77,844. "Shadow evacuation" of 20 percent of the population residing outside the EPZ within 15 miles of Oyster Creek adds vehicle demand of another 14,978 vehicles.For the 2003 ETE study, evacuation times were determined assuming vehicle demand of 2.35 persons per vehicle for permanent residents.

3.1.2 Transport-Dependent Permanent Population Emergency response plans specify that the transport-dependent population will receive transportation assistance.

County Emergency Response Plans include provisions for providing this assistance, including bus routes with designated pickup points. Based on telephone survey results, between one and two percent of households (with phones) have either no vehicle or no licensed driver. NRC guidance (CR-7002)indicates that between 1.5 and 5 percent of residents may require transportation.

The NRC guidance indicates that planning for this EPZ should include provision to provide transportation assistance for at least 2,150 transport-dependent residents for this EPZ.3-2 Exelon Generation ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Approximately 88 bus trips (at 25 persons per bus) would be required to evacuate that population.

This study did not determine the location of transport dependent residents.

The emergency response plans for OCNGS include bus routes and pickup points for transit dependent residents; those routes reflect the locations determined by agencies familiar with the local populace.Individuals requiring transit from reception centers to congregate care centers will be transported in a separate set of vehicles from those designated to transport the transit dependent and special facilities out of the EPZ.3.2 Seasonal Residents The seasonal population category includes those who reside in the area on a temporary basis, particularly during the summer period. Seasonal residences are typically not insulated and are suitable for occupancy for only a portion of the year.These residences may include vacation homes and migrant workforce housing. The 2010 U.S. Census of Population and Housing reports the number of vacant households classified as "for seasonal or occasional use".The number of seasonal housing units in the Oyster Creek EPZ is 9,222. Based on phone conversations with local realtors, summer rentals were assigned an estimated occupancy of 7.5 persons and 3 vehicles per household.

This adds population of 69,173 and 23,063 vehicles for summer scenarios.

The largest seasonal population (27,474) is in ERPA 17 on Long Beach Island.3.3 Transient Population The transient population segment includes persons in the work force, hotels/motels, and recreational areas. Regional maps and mapping software were used to determine facility locations and assign entry nodes. Significant employers within the EPZ were identified using ESRI Business Analyst Online (BAO). BAO is a web-based analytical and mapping tool that facilitates location-specific queries about business and demographic data. Data available on BAO includes information on business location and number of employees.

ESRI extracts business data from a comprehensive list of businesses (over 12 million U.S. businesses) licensed from Infogroup.

ARCADIS used BAO to search for all employers with 50 or more employees located within an 11-mile radius of Oyster Creek. CR-7002 recommends consideration of "large employers" with 50 or more employees on a single shift.3-3 Exelon Generation V ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates The list from BAO was screened to eliminate businesses where workers do not remain on-site (e.g., transportation and trucking companies, construction, realtors, home health care). Employment at schools and special facilities (e.g., hospitals, nursing homes) is generally tracked as part of the special facilities database.

Similarly, grocery or retail establishments are tracked along with the "shopping" population at large commercial establishments (e.g., shopping malls). The reduced list was then reviewed to exclude facilities located outside the EPZ, and to determine the ERPA for those located in the EPZ. The new list of employers was compared to the list from the 2003 study.Telephone calls were made to selected large employers to verify employment numbers and to estimate staffing levels during weekday, weeknight and weekend periods. The results from those calls confirmed that BAO listings provided accurate locations and current, reliable employment numbers for most establishments.

Workforce numbers for OCNGS were provided by Exelon Generation and reflect the peak work force during outage conditions.

Data for hotels, motels and recreational areas were obtained from the TripAdvisor website, the 2011 AAA TourBook for New Jersey, and from state and county tourism websites.

Seasonal occupancy was estimated based on capacity figures (e.g., number of campsites) and a telephone survey of selected facilities.

State and local parks agencies also provided visitation numbers for parks and campgrounds.

For purposes of estimating the total number of vehicles associated with the transient population segment, an occupancy factor of 1.0 employee per vehicle was used for most work places. For the hotel/motel and recreational populations, it was assumed that there would be 1.0 vehicle (1.5 or 2 persons) per hotel/motel unit and 1.0 vehicle (3 persons) per campsite.

For parks, visitation numbers were generally obtained as numbers of vehicles, and an occupancy factor of 3.0 persons per vehicle was assumed. For museums and visitor centers, 1.5 persons per vehicle was assumed.Campgrounds were assumed to be fully occupied during summer weekends, and 80 percent on summer weekdays.

Hotels and motels were assumed to be fully occupied for all scenarios.

For Island Beach State Park, parking capacity is 3,000 vehicles, with estimated vehicle occupancy of 3.5 persons per vehicle. Full capacity was assumed for peak summer weekday and weekend scenarios.

3-4 Exelon Generation V ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates For shopping centers, vehicle demand was reduced to avoid double counting.

It was assumed that at least 50 percent of shoppers and staff are EPZ residents, and half of those would return home before evacuating.

Vehicle demand for these facilities was therefore reduced by 25 percent.Population data and vehicle demand estimates for the transient population segment, including the work force, hotels and motels, and recreational areas are presented by facility in Appendix A. Table 3-2 presents a summary of the transient population by Sub-Area for each scenario.

A breakdown of population by distance and direction sectors was not developed for transient and special facilities, since state and county agencies rely on population by ERPAs for emergency response planning.3.4 Special Facilities Population The special facility population segment includes persons in schools, hospitals, nursing homes and correctional facilities who will require transportation assistance during an evacuation.

The special facilities population is summarized in Table 3-3.3.4.1 Medical, Nursing Care and Correctional Facilities One hospital and eight nursing home or assisted living facilities are located in the EPZ, as identified in Appendix A, plus one corrections facility.

Vehicle occupancy for hospital and nursing home patients is one non-ambulatory patient and one staff per ambulance, 20 residents or patients plus 3 staff per vehicle (bus or van) for ambulatory patients, plus one vehicle per staff person who does not evacuate with patients.3.4.2 Schools and Day Care Forty (40) school facilities have been identified within the Oyster Creek EPZ, with a total population of 24,982 students and 2,723 staff. The schools typically have students present only on weekdays during the school year. Vehicle occupancy for schools is based on 48 persons (45 students, 3 staff) per bus, plus one vehicle per additional school staff. Current enrollment numbers for most schools were provided by NJOEM; any gaps were filled using state-published enrollment information or calls to individual schools.Thirty eight (38) licensed institutional daycare facilities were identified in the EPZ, with an estimated winter daytime population of 2,622 children and 335 staff. Facilities were identified from lists of day care establishments provided by the state, and from facility 3-5 Exelon Generation V ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates lists available via intemet (childcarecenter.us).

The population estimates represent the licensed capacity of each facility.

Facilities would evacuate via bus or van. Smaller home-based daycare facilities (capacity 10 or less) were not tabulated; those facilities contribute little vehicle demand beyond that assigned to EPZ residents.

Table 3-3 summarizes the special facility population by Sub-Area, for winter and summer weekday, weeknight and weekend periods. A detailed listing of the population and associated vehicle demand for all identified special facilities within the Oyster Creek EPZ is presented in Appendix A.3.5 Emergency Response Planning Area Population Totals Population and vehicle demand totals for each Sub-Area are summarized in Table 3-4.The totals listed in the table represent the peak number of people to be evacuated for each analysis case discussed in Section 6 of this report.The largest population and vehicle demand in the Oyster Creek EPZ are located in ERPA 10 (Berkeley Township, South Toms River) for all cases. The differences in vehicle demand between winter and summer scenarios are significant, reflecting the important role of tourism and recreational facilities in the EPZ. Vehicle demand is highest for summer weekday (110,543) and lowest for winter night (81,098).

The differences are largest in ERPA 17, which has ten times as many seasonal residents as permanent residents.

The vehicle demand listed in Tables 3-2, 3-3 and 3-4 reflects the data used as input for the ETE traffic simulations.

3-6 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 3-1: Resident Population and Vehicle Demand by EPZ Sub-Area Resident Pogulj n Vehicle Dean Sub-Area D nce Winter Summer Winter Summer 1 0-2 miles 9,273 12,663 5,040 6,170 2 0-2 miles 3,531 5,579 1,919 2,602 3 2-5 miles 10,900 15,513 5,924 7,462 4 2-5 miles 4,608 5,336 2,504 2,747 5 2-5 miles 11 11 6 6 6 2-5 miles 17,821 21,714 9,685 10,983 7 5-10 miles 14,532 19,332 7,898 9,498 8 5-10 miles 17,178 18,536 9,336 9,789 9 2-5 miles 1,890 1,898 1,027 1,030 10 5-10 miles 36,940 45,086 20,076 22,792 11 5-10 miles 1,142 1,517 621 746 12 5-10 miles 342 372 186 196 13 5-10 miles 27 27 15 15 14 5-10 miles 10,520 11,271 5,717 5,968 15 5-10 miles 10,991 14,277 5,973 7,069 16 5-10 miles 495 8,768 269 3,027 17 5-10 miles 3,032 30,506 1,648 10,807 EPZ total 143,233 212,406 77,844 100,907 3-7 Q ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 3-2: Transient Population and Vehicle Demand within the Oyster Creek EPZ Pow .ation Vehicles Sub-Area Winter _ __Summer ___Winter Summer Day I .Nght Weekend Da NightWeekend Day Night Weekend Day Night Weekend 1 415 100 115 445 130 150 415 100 110 435 120 125 2 60 15 54 167 107 152 60 15 48 136 76 106 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 141 525 525 660 0 0 42 77 77 137 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 279 448 469 335 504 518 215 320 334 243 348 355 7 1,893 3,634 3,649 1,923 3,664 3,679 1,031 1,910 1,920 948 1,729 1,729 8 269 4 58 323 58 218 269 4 31 296 31 111 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 545 78 163 795 323 588 530 63 103 705 233 318 11 69 0 0 69 0 0 69 0 0 69 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 224 448 448 224 448 448 120 240 240 120 240 240 15 1,917 410 524 2,144 637 851 1,917 410 410 1,917 410 460 16 600 0 3,000 10,500 0 10,500 300 0 1,500 3,000 0 3,000 17 0 0 120 230 230 270 0 0 60 115 115 135 EPZ total 6,271 5,137 8,741 17,680 6,626 18,034 4,926 3,062 4,798 18061 13379 6,716 3-8 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 3-3: Population and Vehicle Demand for Schools and Special Facilities in the Oyster Creek EPZ Population Vehices Sub-Area Winter Summer ___Winter Summer Dav Night Weekend Day Night Weekend Day Night Weekend Dav Night Weekend 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 380 0 0 110 0 0 32 0 0 13 0 0 3 4,462 0 0 73 0 0 295 0 0 9 0 0 4 296 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6,227 112 112 644 112 112 438 12 12 75 12 12 7 7,351 127 127 361 127 127 520 17 17 54 17 17 8 1,488 373 373 1,427 373 373 833 48 48 826 48 48 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 6,968 527 527 1,334 527 527 743 63 63 370 63 63 11 398 254 254 398 254 254 145 36 36 145 36 36 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 969 0 0 458 0 0 87 0 0 47 0 0 15 5,099 430 430 622 430 430 335 16 16 36 16 16 16 88 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EPZ total 33,726 1,823 1,823 5,427 1,823 1,823 3,455 192 192 1,575 192 192 3-9 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 3-4: Summary of Population and Vehicle Demand within the Oyster Creek EPZ POD lation Ve ices Sub-Area _Winter Summer Winter Summer Dv N~ightL Weekea Day Nig Wee Weekend Dv NightLWeekend

__ I Night Weekend 1 9,688 9,373 9,388 13,108 12,793 12,813 5,455 5,140 5,150 6,605 6,290 6,295 2 3,971 3,546 3,585 5,856 5,686 5,731 2,011 1,934 1,967 2,751 2,678 2,708 3 15,362 10,900 10,900 15,586 15,513 15,513 6,219 5,924 5,924 7,471 7,462 7,462 4 4,904 4,608 4,749 5,861 5,861 5,996 2,524 2,504 2,546 2,824 2,824 2,884 5 11 11 11 11 11 11 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 24,327 18,381 18,402 22,693 22,330 22,344 10,338 10,017 10,031 11,301 11,343 11,350 7 23,776 18,293 18,308 21,616 23,123 23,138 9,449 9,825 9,835 10,500 11,244 11,244 8 18,935 17,555 17,609 20,286 18,967 19,127 10,438 9,388 9,415 10,911 9,868 9,948 9 1,890 1,890 1,890 1,898 1,898 1,898 1,027 1,027 1,027 1,030 1,030 1,030 10 44,453 37,545 37,630 47,215 45,936 46,201 21,349 20,202 20,242 23,867 23,088 23,173 11 1,609 1,396 1,396 1,984 1,771 1,771 835 657 657 960 782 782 12 342 342 342 372 372 372 186 186 186 196 196 196 13 27 27 27 27 27 27 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 11,713 10,968 10,968 11,953 11,719 11,719 5,924 5,957 5,957 6,135 6,208 6,208 15 18,007 11,831 11,945 17,043 15,344 15,558 8,225 6,399 6,399 9,022 7,495 7,545 16 1,183 495 3,495 19,268 8,768 19,268 576 269 1,769 6,027 3,027 6,027 17 3032 3,032 3,152 130736 130736 130776 1 1648 1,648 1708 110922 10,922 1 10942 EPZ total 183,230 150,193 153,797 235,513 220,855 232,263 86,225 81,098 82,834 1 105431 1044781 107815 Population totals reflect double-counting between categories (residents, workforce, schools, etc.)3-10 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 4. Evacuation Roadway Network 4.1 Network Definition In order to estimate evacuation times for the Oyster Creek EPZ, an evaluation of the roadway network likely to be used by departing vehicles was undertaken.

ARCADIS relied on several sources of information to define the evacuation roadway network:* Evacuation routes described in the existing State emergency response plan;" Maps of highways and local roadways for the EPZ area;" A field survey of the roadways in the Oyster Creek EPZ.The primary evacuation routings used in the modeling are indicated in Figure 4.1.4.2 Evacuation Route Descriptions The evacuation routings were developed to simulate travel out of the EPZ using available roadways.

The network relies primarily on the evacuation routings depicted in the public information brochure for Oyster Creek Generating Station (NJOEM, 2012).Descriptions of the primary evacuation routes for each ERPA within the EPZ are outlined in Table 4-1. Geographic constraints (the ocean to the east, the Pinelands to the west) dictate that all traffic evacuating the EPZ must travel north and south on a few arterial roads (primarily the Garden State Parkway).

U.S. 9 serves as the primary alternative to the GSP for north-south travel in the most heavily populated parts of the EPZ.4.3 Characterizing the Evacuation Network Roadway characteristics such as roadway class, number of lanes, lane and shoulder width, speed limit, lane configuration near intersections, and traffic control are key factors in determining how fast an evacuation can be completed.

These roadway attributes control roadway capacity, which in turn governs operating traffic conditions measured in terms of level-of-service (LOS). LOS is measured from A to F for roadway segments and intersections.

LOS A represents free-flow conditions, and LOS F represents force or breakdown flow conditions.

4-1 V2 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates ARCADIS used NAVTEQT roadway data with detailed information, including local streets, to build the evacuation roadway network for the study. NAVTEQ data was imported into geographic information system (GIS) software (ESRI ArcGISTM) for conducting field surveys to verify evacuation roadway segment attributes.

The information provided in the public information brochure for the site was used to highlight evacuation routes in GIS. ARCADIS has developed an integrated GIS-Global Positioning System (GPS) tool that allows field personnel to record observations in an efficient and effective manner. The evacuation network, including traffic controls, was verified to a 15-mile radius from the plant, and along designated routes to the receptions centers. Once the NAVTEQ data was verified through the field survey, the evacuation roadway network was transferred to the traffic simulation software VISUM for modeling different evacuation scenarios.

Having accurate traffic control information is important to accurately estimate evacuation times because intersections have potential to create bottleneck points.During an evacuation scenario, intersections might be manually controlled by officials, operated with existing traffic signal timing plans, or adjusted according to changing vehicular demand. In general, the emergency response plans for Oyster Creek call for signal override, i.e., signals set to flashing to give priority to outbound travel on designated evacuation routes. Traffic control information is coded as part of the evacuation network database.Background and pass-through traffic in the EPZ could account for significant number of vehicles and could influence evacuation depending on the direction of travel. As recommended in CR-7002, average daily traffic (ADT) volumes, representative of typical background levels, were obtained from state transportation agencies.

During the simulations, background traffic will be included during the initial 2-hours of the evacuation scenario, up to the time when access control is established to prevent vehicles from entering the EPZ.A map of the evacuation network showing node numbers and links, as recommended by the latest guidance, is provided in Appendix C. Detailed attributes of each roadway segment, such as link number, number of lanes, speed limit, length, and roadway type are also tabulated in Appendix C.4-2 Q ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 4-1: Oyster Creek EPZ Primary Evacuation Routes ERPA Evacuation Routes I U.S. 9 north, Garden State Parkway (GSP) north, U.S. 9 south 2 GSP south, U.S. 9 south 3 GSP south, U.S. 9 south 4 GSP south, County 532 and County 554 west to County 539 north 5 GSP north, County 532 west to County 539 north 6 GSP north, U.S. 9 north 7 Hwy 72 west to GSP south, U.S. 9 south 8 Hwy 72 west to County 539 north, GSP south 9 County 530 west to Hwy 70 north 10 GSP north, U.S. 9 north 11 Hwy 72 west to County 539 north 12 County 539 north to Hwy 70 north 13 County 530 west to Hwy 70 north 14 County 530 west to Hwy 70 north, Hwy 37 west 15 County 571 north, County 549 north 16 Hwy 35 to Hwy 37 west to County 571 north 17 Hwy 72 west to GSP south and to U.S. 9 south 4-3 Point Pleasant Beach I j~JI4IIhsdle4~

--. -Cito Avallefte pi..N wNýSeaside Heights 9 Seasid Park 35 F.,k.d ff sarnegat Light I I I Legend$ Station Location Atlantic Ocean i , A Reception Area Emergency Evacuation Route]ERPA Division Major Roads Minor Roads F C art 0 5 10 Mies Surf city'p torn C2 ARCADIS Hurbog I EXLNGNRTO PdW U -..FoMO ýUMK X~Ak?9 1 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 5. Evacuation Time Estimate Methodology 5.1 Evacuation Analysis Cases Time estimates have been prepared for a general evacuation scenario for each of these analysis cases:* Winter Weekday, Fair Weather and Adverse Weather Conditions

Winter Weeknight, Fair Weather Conditions

Winter Weekend, Fair Weather Conditions" Summer Weekday, Fair Weather and Adverse Weather Conditions

Summer Weeknight, Fair Weather Conditions

Summer Weekend, Fair Weather Conditions Evacuation time estimates were developed for evacuation of the full EPZ, and for partial-EPZ evacuation cases based on distance and wind direction.

These include evacuation of the following regions (note that 18, 19 and 20 are overwater): " Section A (2-mile zone): ERPAs 1 and 2" Section B: (5-mile NE) ERPAs 1,2,6 and 19" Section C: (5-mile SE) ERPAs 1,2, 3, 18* Section D: (5-mile SW) ERPAs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5* Section E: (5-mile NW) ERPAs 1, 2, 4, 5, 9" Section F (5-mile ring) ERPAs 1,2, 3,4, 5, 6, 9,18,19* Section G (10-mile NE): ERPAs 1, 2, 6, 10,15,16,19, 20* Section H (10-mile SE): ERPAs 1,2, 3,7,16,17,18,19,20

Section I (10-mile SW): ERPAs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11* Section J (10-mile NW): ERPAs 1,2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14" Section K (full EPZ): all ERPAs 5-1 V2 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates For all partial-EPZ evacuation cases, "shadow" vehicle demand (20 percent of residents) is assigned to all Sub-Areas which are not included in the evacuation region, in addition to the region outside of the EPZ.For the evaluation of "staged evacuation" scenarios, the zones within 2 miles distance (Section A), and all of the keyhole 2-mile plus downwind 5-mile zones (Sections B through F) were simulated.

5.2 Initial Notification The EPZ surrounding Oyster Creek has an outdoor siren notification system consistent with the requirements of NUREG-0654, Rev. 1/FEMA-REP-1 Appendix 3. This system will be used by state and local officials to alert the population to turn on their radios and television sets. Pursuant to NUREG 0654, Rev. 1 guidance, notification messages will commence on the designated television and Emergency Alert System (EAS) radio stations concurrent with sounding of the sirens. Research has shown that a siren/EAS system will reach most of the population quickly, but it is expected to take 30 to 60 minutes for the last 10 to 20 percent of residents to receive an informational or instructional message, either because they do not hear the sirens or because they do not immediately understand what to do when the sirens sound. If evacuation is deemed necessary, the timing of the order to evacuate and notification measures will be controlled by the state and local emergency preparedness officials.

Those officials may choose to alert and mobilize an emergency response work force to control and expedite evacuation prior to the evacuation order.5.3 Transportation Dependent Population The transportation dependent population includes individuals without access to transportation, as well as those requiring special transportation assistance.

Transportation dependent persons will be notified of a protective action recommendation in the same manner as the general public. If evacuation is recommended, persons needing transportation assistance will be informed through the EAS to contact the appropriate officials for assistance.

Evacuees who do not have access to transportation and confined persons who require special transportation assistance will be provided transportation by the appropriate agency.5-2 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 5.4 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions It is assumed that no vehicles will begin to evacuate during the 15-minute initial notification period. Accordingly, in the model simulations, vehicles will begin to evacuate at 15 minutes following the initial notification.

After the initial 15-minute time period, vehicles, are loaded at a linear rate over each 5-minute time interval, in accordance with the network loading distributions for each population type. For example, if 2 percent of 2500 vehicles (50 vehicles) are to be loaded at a specific location over a 5-minute period, PTV Vision will load 10 vehicles per minute at that location during the specified interval.

Network loading distribution assumptions for the permanent population, transient population, and special facilities are based on the anticipated response of different population sectors to an evacuation order.Mobilization times for residents and workers reflect the data acquired by the telephone survey of EPZ residents, and are consistent with published data from actual historical events (ORNL, 1990). Loading distributions are explained below, and summarized in Figure 5-1.5.4.1 Permanent and Seasonal Population Permanent and seasonal residents with access to automobiles will take varying amounts of time to begin evacuating.

Some persons will leave as quickly as possible;most will take some time to prepare, pack valuables and clothes and then depart;some will take added time to secure property before departing; and some may require transportation assistance.

In addition, actual departure and preparation times may vary according to the perceived severity of a particular evacuation order.Based upon these factors, it is estimated that permanent residents would begin to evacuate over a 3-hour period, taking into account warning diffusion, i.e., the time at which an instructional message is received, and the time for workers to return home before departing.

Permanent resident households would begin to evacuate between 15 and 200 minutes after the decision to notify the population to evacuate is made.Roughly half of the resident population would begin to evacuate within 90 minutes following the evacuation decision, and 90 percent would depart between 90 and 130 minutes; the last 10 percent would depart between 130 and 200 minutes. The departure curve is shorter for nights and weekends, because many fewer residents would be returning from work. At night, all residents would depart within 125 minutes. These time profiles reflect the distribution of journey-to-work travel times determined from the telephone survey of residents, and warning diffusion curves determined from observed behavior during evacuations for chemical releases.5-3 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 5.4.2 Transient Population It was assumed that the work force would also receive initial notification consistent with warning diffusion curves. It was also assumed that the majority of the work force would be released expeditiously (i.e., within 15 minutes subsequent to notification), with a smaller number remaining to secure businesses and/or shut down active operations.

The departure time profile following notification is based on telephone survey responses.

The first 45 percent of workers will depart between 15 and 40 minutes, and another 45 percent will depart within 70 minutes; the final 10 percent will depart between 70 and 125 minutes. For a few facilities, it may be necessary for a limited number of workers to remain on the job in order to safely shut down processes, secure the facility or maintain essential operations.

The evacuation time estimates do not address those workers who remain behind, since there is no reliable basis for predicting whether or how soon they will evacuate.

The assumption that all workers evacuate provides a conservative estimate of vehicle demand. Previous discussions with emergency preparedness officials indicated that the same time distribution is also reasonable for the other transient population categories within the EPZ, including shopping malls, hotels, motels and recreation areas.5.4.3 Special Facilities It was assumed that special facilities (i.e., schools, nursing homes) within the EPZ would all receive initial notification promptly, via direct phone calls from the county agencies.

Based upon data obtained from previous studies, vehicle departure times were developed that reflect a distribution of notification, preparation and mobilization times.Consistent with the current off-site emergency response plans, it was assumed that schools will be evacuated via bus to the designated host schools. For school facilities, it was assumed that up to 2.5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months may be required to assemble buses and drivers, transport vehicles to schools and to load students onto buses. Vehicles stationed at the facilities at the time of the ordered evacuation could be loaded in as little as 15 minutes following notification.

Accordingly, school buses were loaded onto the evacuation network from the period between 15 and 175 minutes following the decision to evacuate.

The school time profile was also applied for daycare facilities.

Evacuation of nursing home facilities would also require additional time associated with preparation and transport of vehicles to the respective facilities.

Based upon previous studies, it was assumed that these facilities would begin to evacuate between 15 5-4 Q ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates minutes and 3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months following notification.

The first 25 percent will depart between 15 and 60 minutes after the decision to evacuate; another 50 percent between 60 and 105 minutes; and the last 25 percent between 105 and 190 minutes, reflecting the longer times required for the population needing greater assistance or supervision.

Departure times -Oyster Creek 1 ID CL 0.8 , 0.6 20.4 E 0.2ýZ_20 ý"If ý_¢-resident day-resident night 1/7//) 100 150 time (minutes)-worker-schools-special-transit depend 0 50 200 Figure 5-1. Departure Time Distributions for the Oyster Creek EPZ 5-5 0 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 5.5 Evacuation Simulation Traffic simulation provides the ability to analyze evacuation of an area in great detail. In most traffic simulation models, there are two main inputs: supply (roadway) network data and demand (population and vehicular) data. Traffic models use different types of algorithms to predict traffic flow and provide measures of effectiveness (MOEs) such as average travel times, total number of vehicles exiting the system, and queue lengths at various times and points.5.5.1 General Structure ARCADIS used PTV Vision to perform evacuation modeling for different scenarios.

The PTV Vision traffic simulation software package includes VISSIM (microscopic traffic simulation) and VISUM (macroscopic traffic simulation).

VISUM is a comprehensive, flexible software system for transportation planning, travel demand modeling, and network data management.

VISSIM is capable of performing detailed microscopic simulation of traffic, public transport, and pedestrian simulations, and can model any type of traffic control and geometric configuration.

Both VISUM and VISSIM are capable of performing multi-modal analysis including car, commercial vehicle, bus, train, motorcycles, bicycles, and pedestrians.

The two programs work together seamlessly, saving valuable time and resources." Venfied Evacuation Network* O-D Matrices-Traffic Demand Volumes-Travel Times* Queue Lengths" Botnecks Figure 5-2. Evacuation Modeling and Simulation using PTV Vision Suite 5-6 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates VISUM was used to develop the evacuation network and population entry nodes (centroids).

One of the key features of VISUM is its ability to interact seamlessly with GIS-data such as ESRI ArcGIS database.

The field verified evacuation network data and demand data developed in ArcGIS were imported directly into VISUM. Origin-Destination trip tables were developed for the evacuation and imported into VISUM.VISUM software was then used to route the Origin-Destination information on the network using a dynamic equilibrium algorithm.

This algorithm ensured that traffic levels on the network were realistic given the capacities available on individual links.Once an initial solution was found in VISUM, the information was exported into VISSIM for microsimulation.

A microsimulation was deemed a necessary step in order to obtain detailed and realistic results on queuing and average travel times. VISSIM can model intersection with different type of traffic control such as yield signs, stop signs, and signals. VISSIM also provides a better understating of critical and congested part of the network.5.5.2 Simulation Process The ETE results include the time to evacuate 90 percent and 100 percent of the total permanent and transient population.

Based on the current guidance, ETEs for special facilities, schools, and the transit dependent population are developed separately; only the time to evacuate 100 percent of these population groups was needed.Consistent with current guidance, vehicle demand for each scenario was based on 100 percent of the population residing in areas designated for evacuation, plus 20 percent of the population residing in Sub-Areas outside the designated evacuation area, and 20 percent of the population residing outside of the EPZ, out to a distance of 15 miles.Vehicle demand outside of the designated evacuation area is intended to account for the impact of "shadow evacuees".

A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of changes different input parameters and assumptions such as changes in lane closures, trip generation times, vehicular demand, evacuation routes, and background traffic.The simulation process can be summarized as follows: VISUM 1. Create every scenario based on a. Background traffic b. Time of day 5-7 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates c. Day of week d. Weather condition e. Season f. Wind Direction g. Shadow traffic 2. Run Dynamic Traffic Assign to and calculate Permanent and Transient, Shadow, Special Needs/Schools volumes 3. Assignment process will last until suitable convergence is reached. VISUM provides output on the goodness of convergence after assignment.

The convergence fit is not as critical because this is an evacuation model of a no-notice event, therefore full user equilibrium cannot be expected.4. Export to VISSIM.VISSIM 1. Warm-up time built into background/pass-through traffic generation.

2. Check for any local calibration parameters.

3. Run the final multimodal Dynamic Traffic Assignment in VISSIM to consider queues and intersection delays 4. Sensitivity analysis and count evacuees at 2, 5, and 10 miles 5. Prepare ETE times MOEs 1. 90 percent evacuation time (for all wind directions and scenarios, staged and normal evacuations)

a. This applies to evacuation of the PUBLIC only 2. 100 percent evacuation time (for all wind directions and scenarios, stage and normal evacuations)

3. Color-coded roadway map at various times (2, 4, 6 hrs) which identifies where long queues exist, including LOS E and F conditions.

5-8 Exelon Generation ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 6. Analysis of Evacuation Times 6.1 Evacuation Time Estimate Summary Predicted ETEs for the general population in the EPZ are summarized by scenario in Table 6-1 for the full EPZ and for the 2 mile and 5 mile rings. The pattern of evacuation times is consistent with the differences in vehicle demand and travel time for different scenarios.

The 2-mile zone involves the shortest travel distance and the fewest vehicles; 90 percent ETEs for the 2-mile zone are 2:05 to 3:35, and 100 percent ETEs are 3:00 to 4:35.For the 2-mile plus all 5-mile zones, the 90 percent ETEs are 4:40 to 6:40, and the 100 percent ETEs are 6:30 to 9:05. For the full EPZ, the 90 percent ETEs are 7:15 to 9:55, while the 100 percent ETEs are 9:10 to 12:25. The large increases in ETEs as the evacuated region expands illustrate the effects of competing traffic demand and worsening congestion on the few available evacuation routes.6.2 Comparison with Previous Study The 90 percent ETEs for the current study are generally similar to the corresponding 100 percent ETEs from the 2003 study. Vehicle demand for the current study (110,543 for Summer Weekday) is about 15 percent higher than the peak summer day vehicle demand from 2003 (95,531).

The longer ETEs for the current study reflect the effects of higher traffic demand, the addition of background traffic and longer departure times (based on warning diffusion and the survey of residents).

6.3 All Conditions ETEs for all of the keyhole zone scenarios (2-mile plus downwind 5-mile zones; 2-mile plus downwind 5- andl0-mile zones) are summarized in Table 6-2. Small differences are predicted for time of day and weekday versus weekend, with larger differences based on direction sector and season. ETEs are longer for the full EPZ or for selected 10-mile zones, compared to scenarios that only include zones to 5 miles. ERPA 7, 8 and 11 produce the longest ETEs, even for peak summer traffic. Adverse weather adds 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months or more to 10-mile ETEs. These results reflect the high population and vehicle demand in outer zones. The major traffic congestion that controls ETEs for the full EPZ does not appear to involve beach traffic from ERPA 16 or 17.6-1 Exelon Generation ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 6.4 Staged Evacuation Scenarios A series of staged evacuation scenarios were evaluated based on NRC guidance (CR-7002). In a staged evacuation, the 2-mile zone evacuates first, while surrounding zones shelter in place; after the population has evacuated the 2-mile zone, the outer zones would be instructed to evacuate.

The "stage 1" time is determined by simulating evacuation of the 2-mile zone for the Winter Weekday, Normal Weather scenario, with only background and shadow traffic in other parts of the EPZ. Once the Stage 1 time (2:35) was determined, a revised set of departure curves was developed for the outer (Stage 2) zones. The Stage 2 departure curves for Oyster Creek are shown in Figure 6-1. The departure curves are much steeper at the beginning of Stage 2, because people are able to return home and prepare to depart during Stage 1. Similarly, the transportation resources needed to evacuate schools and special facilities will gather on-site in preparation for evacuation.

Results for staged evacuation scenarios are summarized in Table 6-3. The 90 percent and 100 percent ETEs for the staged scenarios are 10 to 20 minutes longer than the corresponding "unstaged" ETEs. The simulation results indicate that staged evacuation for Oyster Creek would result in little or no benefit, in terms of the time required to evacuate the 2-mile zone, and a modest penalty, in terms of small increases in ETEs for the zones which would initially be ordered to shelter.6.5 Sensitivity to Population Growth and Roadway Impact 6.5.1 Population Growth NRC guidance (CR-7002) for updating ETE studies more frequently than the 10-year federal census includes criteria based on population growth. Specifically, if the residential population growth in the EPZ since the last ETE update is sufficient to cause an increase in the ETE by 25 percent or by 30 minutes, whichever is less, then a full ETE update study must be performed.

A sensitivity analysis was performed by determining the 90 percent ETEs for increases of 5, 10, 15 and 20 percent of the EPZ residential population for the Summer Weekday, Normal Weather scenario.

This scenario produced the longest ETE by season or time of day. The population was increased in the same manner in the surrounding region, out to 15 miles. Results are illustrated in Figure 6-2. With a 15 percent increase in residential population above the 2010 census values, the 90 percent ETE for the full EPZ increased to 8:25, an increase of 25 minutes. With a 20 percent increase in population, the 90 percent ETE increased to 8:31, an increase of 31 minutes. These results demonstrate that a population increase of more than 15 6-2 Exelon Generation 0 ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates percent above the 2010 census values would be required to cause the ETE to increase by 30 minutes. (Linear extrapolation indicates that a population increase of 19 percent would produce an ETE increase of approximately 30 minutes.)

Since the EPZ residential population for Oyster Creek changed by 14 percent between 2000 and 2010, it appears possible that an increase of 15 percent will occur before 2020.The 100 percent ETEs increased more rapidly than the 90 percent ETEs, consistent with the general pattern of all ETE results. With a 15 percent increase in population, the 100 percent ETE for the full EPZ increased by 35 minutes, from 10:05 to 10:40.NRC guidance (CR-7002) indicates that emergency planning decisions should be based on the 90 percent ETEs. The recommended "update threshold" for the Oyster Creek EPZ, based on population growth, is therefore 15 percent.6.5.2 Roadway Impact NRC guidance (CR-7002) also requires analysis of a "roadway impact" scenario.

For this scenario, a major evacuation route is removed or reduced in capacity.

Specifically, one of the 5 highest volume roadways is removed from service, or capacity is reduced by one lane (for a multi-lane, limited-access roadway such as an interstate highway).This scenario is specified as Summer Weekday, Normal Weather for the Full EPZ. For Oyster Creek, the five highest-volume roadways for this scenario are listed below: " GSP NB -30,900 vehicles* GSP SB -28,900 vehicles* US 9 SB -15,500 vehicles* 37 WB -13,100 vehicles* US 9/Hooper Ave NB -12,750 vehicles Predicted traffic volumes by link for the "base case" simulation with the full roadway network are shown in Figure 6-3.One lane of the highest-volume roadways, GSP SB south of 72, was removed for the roadway impact scenario.

The impact location is shown in Figure 6-4. With this lane unavailable, the ETEs increased from 8:00 (90 percent) and 10:05 (100 percent) to 8:25 (90 percent) and 10:15 (100 percent).

The traffic flow by link for the roadway impact scenario is shown in Figure 6-4. With one lane unavailable, traffic flow will not change on any link since evacuees are not supposed to reroute to other roads.6-3 Exelon Generation ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 6.6 Performance Metrics for Simulation Model The performance of VISSIM is assessed using standard metrics, consistent with the guidance provided in CR-7002. Table 6-5 provides a summary of simulation parameters for Winter Day Normal Weather scenario for the full EPZ. The low average speed for evacuating vehicles (6 mph) illustrates the severe congestion that develops in the EPZ along the GSP corridor.Figure 6-5 illustrates the number of vehicles on the network over the course of the simulation, while Figure 6-6 compares the rate of vehicles loading onto the network to the frequency of departures.

Both Figure 6-5 and Figure 6-6 illustrate the consequences of traffic congestion, as the rate of vehicles entering the road network is more rapid than the rate at which vehicles exit from the EPZ.6.7 ETE for Transit Dependent Special Facilities and Schools The ETE for transit dependent members of the general public is estimated based on the assumption of two sequential set of bus runs from Forked River, Bayville, Barnegat, Toms River, Manahawkin, and Berkeley.

The first run would begin 90 minutes after the evacuation notice, allowing time for evacuees to prepare and to travel to designated pickup points. The time sequence would then proceed in the following steps:& 30 minutes for the bus to traverse up to ten pickup points (2 miles) and load passengers (2:00)* 40 minutes to travel out to reception center (8 miles @ 12 mph), 10 minutes to unload, 10 minutes to return (3:00)* Repeat pickup (30 min) and travel out of EPZ (20 min). TOTAL = 3:50 Estimated evacuation times for special facilities, schools and daycares located in the EPZ are summarized in Tables 6-5 and 6-6. These times are shorter than the 90 percent and 100 percent ETEs for the general population.

Facility-specific estimates are based on a three-step time sequence:

(1) mobilization, (2) loading, and (3) travel out of the EPZ. Mobilization and loading times are generally the largest components.

At nursing homes and assisted living facilities, each vehicle will require about 10 minutes to load, with two vehicles loading simultaneously.

While some school buses may mobilize more quickly depending on specific local circumstances, it will generally require on the order of 120 minutes to contact drivers, provide them with instructions and deploy them to assigned schools. For travel time, average speeds were estimated 6-4 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates for the anticipated evacuation route, based on the traffic simulation for the Winter Day scenario.

The simplified stepwise methodology used to determine these estimates provides a typical evacuation time, rather than an upper bound 100 percent value.6-5 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-1: Evacuation Time Estimate Summary for Oyster Creek General Population Summer Winter Midweek Daytime Weekend Daytime Evening Midweek Daytime Weekend Evening 1. 1 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Daytime _ _Affected ERPAS Scenario:

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)Weather: Normal [Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas 1,2 2-mile Zone 3:05 3:35 2:40 2:35 2:35 3:10 2:05 2:05 1, 2, 3,4, 5, 6, 9 5-mile Zone 5:45 6:40 5:20 5:15 5:15 6:35 4:40 4:40 ALL 110-mile EPZ 8:00 9:15 7:30 7:30 7:50 9:55 7:15 7:15 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas 1, 2 2-mile Zone 3:45 4:15 3:20 3:10 3:40 4:35 3:15 3:00 1, 2, 3,4, 5, 6, 9 5-mile Zone 7:55 9:05 7:25 7:10 7:15 9:05 6:35 6:30 ALL 10-mile EPZ 10:05 11:40 9:20 9:10 9:50 12:25 9:15 9:10 6-6 0 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-2: Evacuation Times for General Population for Keyhole Zones Summer Winter Midweek Daytime Weekend Evening Midweek Daytime Weekend Evening... ._Daytime .Daytime Scenario:

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)Affected ERPAs 0()() I~ Z Weather: Normal [Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal 90 Percent Evacuation Times 1,2, 6 SW 5:35 6:25 4:50 4:45 4:50 6:05 4:10 4:15 1, 2, 3 NW 5:10 6:00 3:50 3:50 4:25 5:30 3:55 3:55 1,2,3,4,5 NE 5:20 6:10 4:25 4:15 4:40 5:50 4:05 4:10 1, 2, 4, 5, 9 SE 5:05 5:50 3:45 3:45 3:50 4:45 3:20 3:20 1,2,6,10,15,16 SW 7:20 8:30 7:05 7:05 7:30 9:30 6:15 6:15 1,2,3,7,16,17 NW 6:35 7:35 5:50 5:50 6:05 7:35 5:35 5:35 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,11 NE 8:00 9:15 7:30 7:30 7:50 9:55 7:15 7:15 1,2,4,5,6,9,10,12,13,14 SE 6:40 7:35 6:20 6:20 6:05 7:45 5:45 5:45 100 Percent Evacuation Times 1, 2, 6 SW 7:40 8:50 6:45 6:30 6:40 8:20 5:50 5:50 1,2, 3 NW 7:10 8:10 5:25 5:20 6:05 7:35 5:35 5:25 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 NE 7:20 8:30 6:10 5:50 6:20 7:55 5:45 5:40 1,2,4,5,9 SE 7:00 8:00 5:10 5:10 5:10 6:30 4:45 4:40 1,2,6,10,15,16 SW 9:15 10:45 8:45 8:40 9:25 11:55 7:55 7:55 1,2,3,7,16,17 NW 8:15 9:35 6:50 6:40 5:25 6:50 6:20 6:20 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,11 NE 10:05 11:40 9:20 9:10 9:50 12:25 9:15 9:10 1,2,4,5,6,9,10,12,13,14 SE 8:15 9:35 7:50 7:45 7:30 9:25 7:05 7:05 6-7 Q ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-3: Results for Staged Evacuation for 5-Mile Downwind Zones (Stage 1 ends at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days 5.555556e-4 hours 3.306878e-6 weeks 7.61e-7 months 35 minutes)Summer Winter Midweek Daytime Weekend Daytime Evening Midweek Daytime Weekend Daytime Evening Scenario:

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)Affected ERPAst Weather: Normal Adverse Normal Normal Normal Adverse Normal Normal 90 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas 1, 2, 6 SW 5:45 6:40 5:00 4:55 5:00 6:15 4:20 4:20 1, 2, 3 NW 5:20 6:10 4:00 4:00 4:35 5:45 4:05 4:05 1,2, 3,4, 5 NE 5:35 6:25 4:35 4:25 4:50 6:00 4:10 4:20 1,2,4,5,9 SE 5:15 6:00 3:50 3:55 3:55 4:55 3:30 3:30 100 Percent Evacuation of Affected Areas 1, 2, 6 SW 7:55 9:10 7:00 6:45 6:55 8:35 6:05 6:00 1, 2, 3 NW 7:20 8:30 5:35 5:30 6:15 7:50 5:45 5:35 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 NE 7:35 8:45 6:20 6:00 6:35 8:15 5:55 5:55 1, 2, 4, 5,9 SE 7:15 8:20 5:20 5:20 5:25 6:45 4:55 4:50 6-8 0 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Stage 2 departure times -Oyster Creek 1 t m 0.8"0 o 0.6 0.4 E 0.2 0-resident day-resident night-worker-schools-special-transit depend 0 50 100 150 time (minutes)200 250 Figure 6-1. Departure Curves for Stage 2 Zones, Oyster Creek 6-9 0 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Oyster Creek--Population Growth vs ETE (Full EPZ-90% ETE)(D E ,LI I-uJ 8:35 8:30 8:25 8:20 8:15 8:10 8:05 8:00 7:55 0, 8:30 y = 0.llllx + 0.3331 8:15

lOmile y = 0.1111x + 0.3331 R 2 = 0.995 10mile-Upper Linear (10mile)5%10%Pop Increase %15%20%Figure 6-2. Oyster Sensitivity of ETE to Population Growth (Summer Weekday, Normal Weather, Full EPZ)6-10 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Figure 6-3. Oyster Creek Predicted Traffic Volume by Link with Full Network (Summer Weekday, Normal Weather, Full EPZ)6-11 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Figure 6-4. Oyster Creek Predicted Traffic Volume by Link with GSP SB south of 72 Link Removed (Summer Weekday, Normal Weather, Full EPZ)6-12 14 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Exiting Vehicles by hour 5000 Z 4000 S3000 C 2000 0 i-1000 E n I I i;~~ i~ii~iiiii lllJJlliiii I I I I I I I I I I I z N : V V 'V 1$ 1$ 1$ 4> u I: b4 Simulation Time* 2mile E5mile MEPZ 10-mile: 90% ETE = 7:50, 100% = 9:50 Figure 6-5. Time Distribution of Vehicles on the Network (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)6-13 0 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Mobilization vs. ETE 01 E C'100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Time (min)700-Simulation

-Mobilization Figure 6-6. Comparison of Vehicle Mobilization and Departure Rates (total vehicles 86,225)6-14 Q ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-4: Summary of Network Performance (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Network Parameter All Vehicles BG/Shadow Evacuation Avg Delay (s) 17,990 10,994 20,860 Avg Stop Delay (s) 11,236 9,195 12,073 Avg # of Stops 2,534 808 3,243 Avg Speed (mph) 6.4 8.3 6.0 Avg Travel Time (min) 250 207 264 6-15 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-5: ETE for Special Facilities, Oyster Creek EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Vehicles Travel Faculty Popu o Mobilization

.. .to EP Travel Tme Faiit opltin# Type Tim. (min) (ime) Boundar Speed Boudar (min).(min) ) (mph) Boun(m...., , , , ... ....... , ,( m in ) , , Southern Ocean County Hospital 156 16 AmbNan 90 30 3 41.6 4 124 Bamegat Nursing Center 115 6 AmbNan 90 30 7 41.6 10 130 Bayville Manor 60 2 AmbNan 60 15 5 35.6 8 83 Crystal Lake Healthcare and Rehab 225 6 AmbNan 90 30 6.5 35.6 11 131 Manahawkin Convalescent Center 105 5 AmbNan 90 30 3 41.6 4 124 Southern Ocean Nursing & Rehab 136 7 AmbNan 90 30 3 41.6 4 124 Spring Oak Assisted Living 104 2 AmbNan 90 30 8.5 35.6 14 134 Summerville at Stafford Assisted Living 94 5 AmbNan 60 15 2 5.7 21 96 Tallwoods Care Center 180 5 AmbNan 90 30 6.5 35.6 11 131 Anchor House 10 1 Van 90 30 8 35.6 13 133 Ocean County Jail (inmates) 400 16 Bus 120 45 1.5 5.7 16 181 6-16 Q ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-6: ETE for Schools in Oyster Creek EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Vehicles Distance to Travel Time i ' "oifati/Ld'gl

--- Outbound I to E--- ET Facility Population Tim o Time EPZ Travel# Type ,(..), Boundary Sped (Boundary (min)(mn, imin (m) pe (mph) (min)Frederick Priff 242 4 Bus 90 30 11 39.7 17 137 Bamegat High School 1,160 19 Bus 120 45 8 41.6 12 177 Collins Elem School 769 13 Bus 120 45 7 41.6 10 175 Joseph Donahue Elem School 340 6 Bus 90 30 8 41.6 12 132 Horbelt Elem School 470 8 Bus 120 45 7 41.6 10 175 Brackman Middle School 881 14 Bus 120 45 7 41.6 10 175 Waretown Elem School 362 6 Bus 120 45 11 39.7 17 182 Dunfee Elem School 388 6 Bus 120 45 7 41.6 10 175 Ocean Co Votech 296 5 Bus 90 30 9 41.6 13 133 Lacey Twp MS 862 14 Bus 120 45 9.5 35.6 16 181 Forked River Elem School 602 10 Bus 120 45 9.5 35.6 16 181 Cedar Creek Elem School 675 11 Bus 120 45 8 35.6 13 178 Lacey Twp HS 1,755 29 Bus 120 45 8 35.6 13 178 Lanoka Harbor Elem School 703 12 Bus 120 45 8 35.6 13 178 Mill Pond School 854 14 Bus 120 45 8 35.6 13 178 All Saints Regional 444 7 Bus 120 45 1.5 15.5 6 171 Lighthouse Christian Academy 85 1 Bus 60 15 2 15.5 8 83 McKinley Ave Elem School 786 13 Bus 120 45 2 15.5 8 173 Southern Regional HS 2,302 38 Bus 120 45 2.5 15.5 10 175 Southern Regional MS 1,125 18 Bus 120 45 2 15.5 8 173 6-17 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 6-6: ETE for Schools in Oyster Creek EPZ (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)Vehices MLoading Distance to Outbound Travel Time Mobilization i Travel Po#ato Type Tmime (mine BonaySed(p Boundary (min)Facility~ii (m)mm)ined(m)

Stafford Elem. (Oxycocus) 270 4 Bus 90 30 1.5 15.5 6 126 Stafford Intermediate 812 13 Bus 120 45 2 15.5 8 173 Ocean Acres Elem School 579 10 Bus 120 45 2 15.5 8 173 OC VOTECH MATES 217 4 Bus 90 30 2 15.5 8 128 Meinders Primary Learning Center 324 5 Bus 90 30 2 15.5 8 128 Central HS/MS 2,118 35 Bus 120 45 5 35.6 8 173 Berkeley Twp Elementary 581 10 Bus 120 45 5 35.6 8 173 H&M Potter School 506 8 Bus 120 45 5 35.6 8 173 Bayville Elem School 530 9 Bus 120 45 5 35.6 8 173 Clara Worth School 544 9 Bus 120 45 6.5 35.6 11 176 Ocean Gate Elem School 165 3 Bus 90 30 6 16.4 22 142 Pine Beach Elem School 648 11 Bus 120 45 3 15.7 11 176 Beachwood Elem School 396 6 Bus 120 45 2 5.7 21 186 South Toms River ES 396 6 Bus 120 45 1 5.7 10 175 Washington Elem School 402 7 Bus 120 45 1 5.7 10 175 Mon Donovan/St Joseph's 1,996 33 Bus 120 45 1 5.7 10 175 Toms River HS South 1,767 29 Bus 120 45 1 5.7 10 175 Island Heights School 126 2 Bus 90 30 3.5 47.8 4 124 Ambassador Christian Academy 139 2 Bus 90 30 1 5.7 10 130 Seaside Park Elem School 88 1 Bus 60 15 8 47.8 10 85 6-18 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek 7. Traffic Control Recommendations 7.1 General Evacuation simulation results have been reviewed to assess access control locations, traffic management locations and recommendations for the Oyster Creek EPZ. The traffic control plan for the EPZ was reviewed to confirm that traffic management will be implemented at key intersections on all designated evacuation routes. Predicted queuing at high-volume intersections inside the EPZ is summarized in Table 7-1. The results indicate that average queue length exceeds 700 feet at all ten intersections.

The top five intersections have average queue length of more than 1,300 feet (1/4 mile). Two of the top 4 intersections are located outside the EPZ, in the vicinity of reception centers. Six intersections are located south of OCNGS, in Manahawkin and Barnegat Township.

One is located in Forked River, within 2 miles north of OCNGS, and one is located near the northern boundary of the EPZ in Toms River.7.2 Evacuation Access Control Locations Access control measures were not specifically addressed in the conduct of this study.Background traffic within the EPZ was not found to be a significant contributor to traffic congestion during the early stages of evacuation.

7.3 Traffic Management Locations and Tactics to Facilitate Evacuation The traffic simulations show severe queuing inside the EPZ along the GSP corridor north and south of OCNGS. Traffic backs up at most of the ramps providing access to GSP. The maps in Appendix D of predicted average speed by hour on roadway links clearly illustrate how the pattern of congestion evolves during a full-EPZ evacuation scenario.

Travel speeds on key routes drop below 20 mph within the first two hours, and that congestion persists for the next 7 hours8.101852e-5 days 0.00194 hours 1.157407e-5 weeks 2.6635e-6 months .Traffic management measures to promote additional traffic flow to the west of the EPZ and north on County 539 or west on Hwy 37, then north on Highway 70 may provide an alternative to relieve some of this congestion.

The speed maps do not indicate significant congestion along those routes.7-1 ARCADIS Exelon Generation Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates Table 7-1: Predicted Queuing at Major Intersections (Full 10-mile EPZ, Winter Weekday, Normal Weather)EPZ Average Intersection Name Type (IN or City or Town Control Type Queue Volume , OUT) , (fe=et)GSP SB exit ramp to County Road 539 Ramp OUT Tuckerton Ramp 1,587 18,184 US-9 WB Merge to GSP NB Ramp border Toms River Ramp 1,548 20,534 Barnegat Rd (SR 72 EB) merge to GSP SB T IN Manahawkin Signalized 1,537 8,370 GSP NB Exit 90 to County Road 549 Ramp OUT Brick Ramp 1,416 5,304 Barnegat Rd (SR72 WB) exit ramp to US-9 SB Ramp IN Manahawkin Ramp 1,318 2,490 Barnegat Rd (SR 72 WB) merge to GSP SB Ramp IN Manahawkin Ramp 1,210 4,552 Lacey Rd / Deerhead Lake Dr. 4 leg IN Forked River Signalized 975 10,872 County Road 554 (W. Bay Ave) to GSP SB 4 leg IN Barnegat Signalized 954 13,726 County Road 554 (W. Bay Ave) / Bamegat Blvd 4 leg IN Barnegat Signalized 723 9,299 US-9 / SR 180 (E. Bay Ave) 4 leg IN Manahawkin Signalized 713 5,896 7-2 Exelon Generation V2 ARCADIS Oyster Creek Evacuation Time Estimates 8. References Earth Tech, 2003: Evacuation Time Estimates for the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone -Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station, prepared by Earth Tech, Inc. for Exelon Nuclear, February 2003.NJOEM, 2012: Emergency Planning for Oyster Creek Generating Station, public information brochure prepared by New Jersey Office of Emergency Management and Exelon Generation, 2012/2013 edition.NRC, 1980: Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG-0654, FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Federal Emergency Management Agency, November 1980.NRC, 1992: State of the Art in Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR-4831, T. E. Urbanik and J. D. Jamison, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 1992.NRC, 2011: Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR-7002, J. Jones and F. Walton, Sandia National Laboratories, and B. Wolshon, Louisiana State University, November 2011.ORNL, 1990: Evaluating Protective Actions for Chemical Agent Emergencies, ORNL-6615, G.O. Rogers, et al., Oak Ridge National Laboratory, prepared for U.S. Department of the Army and Federal Emergency Management Agency, April 1990.8-1

RS-12-217, 2012 Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station Emergency Planning Zone Evacuation Time Estimates Analysis. Part 1 of 2

Text

Navigation menu

RS-12-217, 2012 Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station Emergency Planning Zone Evacuation Time Estimates Analysis. Part 1 of 2

Text

Navigation menu

Search