ML19353B216
| ML19353B216 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Seabrook  |
| Issue date: | 12/01/1989 |
| From: | NEW HAMPSHIRE, STATE OF |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19353B215 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8912130348 | |
| Download: ML19353B216 (448) | |
Text
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Revision 2
LIST OF trrtL'r1VE PMES
'^'i tyt'tLTIVE DATE 12-01-89
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t Pace Revision Pace Revision Pace Revision Cover 2 2-12 2 4-4 2 1 2 2-13 2 4-5 2 11 2 2-14 2 4-6 2 lii 2 2-15 2 4-7 2 iv 2 2-16 2 4-8 2 v 2 2-17 2 4-9 2 vi 2 2-18 2 4-10 2 vil 2 2-19 2 4-11 2 viii 2 2-20 2 4-12 2 ix 2 2-21 2 4-13 2 x 2 2-22 2 4-14 2 r x1 2 2-23 2 4-15 2 xii 2 2-24 2 4-16 2 xiii 2 2-25 2 4-17 2 xiv 2 2-26 2 4-18 2 xv 2 2-27 2 4-19 2 xvi 2 2-28 2 4-20 2 2-29 2 4-21 2 1-1 2 2-30 2 4-22 2 1-2 2 2-31 2 4-23 2 _,-s. 1-3 2 2-32 2 4-24 2 ( 1-4 2 2-33 2 4-25 2
\--) . 1-5 2 4-26 2 L 1-6 2 3-1 2 4-27 2 l 1-7 2 3-2 2 4-28 2 l 1-8 2 3-3 2 4-29 2 1-9 2 3-4' 2 4-30 2 1-10 2 3-5 2 4-31 2 1-11 2 3-6 2 1-12 2 3-7 2 5-1 2 1-13 2 3-8 2 5-2 2 1-14 2 3-9 2 5-3 2 1-15 2 3-10 2 5-4 2 1-16 2 3-11 2 5-5 2 Figure 1-3 2 3-12 2 5-6 2 l :- 3-13 2 5-7 2 D 2-1 2 3-14 2 5-8 2 l 2-2 2 3-15 2 5-9 2 h 2-3 2 3-16 2 5-10 2 2-4 2 3-17 2 5-11 2 2-5 2 3-18 2 5-12 2 2-6 2 3-19 2 5-13 2 2-7 2 3-20 2 2-8 2 6-1 2 2-9 2 4-1 2 6-2 2 10 2 4-2 2 6-3 2 2-11 2 4-3 2 L i Rev. 2 l
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L LIST OF tertunVE PEES Pace Revision Pace Revision Pace Revision O 7-1 2 10-20 2 11-6 2 7-2 2 10-21 2 11-7 2 7-3 2 10-22 2 11-8 2 7-4 2 10-23 2 11-9 2 7-5 2 10-24 2 11-10 2 10-25 2 11-11 2 8-1 2 10-26 2 11-12 2 8-2 2 10-27 2 11-13 2 8-3 2 10-28 2 11-14 2 8-4 2 10-29 2 11-15 2 8-5 2 10-30 2 11 2 8-6. 2 10-31 2 11-17 2 8-7 2 ~ 10-32 2 11-18 2 8-8 2 10-33 2 11-19 2 8-9 2 10-34 2 11-20 2 8-10 2 10-35 2 11-21 2 8-11 2 10-36 2 11-22 2 8-12 2 10-37 2 11-23 2 10-38 2 11-24 2 9-1 2 10-39 2 11-25 2 9-2 2 10-40 2 11-26 2 9 2 10-41 2 11-27 2 . 9-4 2 10-42 2 11-28 2 9-5 2 10-43 2 11-29 2 9-6 2 10-44 2 11-30 2 9-7 2 10-45 2 11-31 2 9-8 2 10-46 2 11-32 2 9-9 2 10-47 2 11-33 2 10-48 2 11-34 2 10-1 2 10-49 2 11-35 2 10-2 2 10-50 2 11-36 2 10-3 2 10-51 2 10-4 2 10-52 2 12-1 2 10-5 2 10-53 2 12-2 2 . 10-6 2 10-54 2 12-3 2 10-7 2 10-55 2 12-4 2 10 2 10-56 2 : 10-9 2 10-57 2 13-1 2 l 10-10 2 10-58 2 13-2 2 l l- 10-11 2 10-59 2 13-3 2 l 10-12 2 10-60 2 l 10-13 2 10-61 2 Cover Sheet (A) l 10-14 2 A-1 2 10-15 2 11-1 2 A-2 2 i I. 10-16 2 11-2 2 A-3 2 I 10-17 2 11-3 2 A-4 2 ! 10-18 2 11-4 2 A-5 2 -, 10-19 2 11-5 2 O [
I 11 Rev. 2 I l l l
LIST OF tytu;nVE PAGES
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t V Pace Revision P00e Revision Pace Revision Cover Sheet (B) E-17 2 J-9 2 B-1 2 E-18 B 2 J-10 2 2 E-19 2 J-11 2 B-3 2 J-12 2 B-4 2 J-13 2 B-5 2 J-14 B-6 Cover Sheet (F) 2 2 F-1 2 J 2 B-7 2 F-2 2 J-16 2 B-8 2 F-3 2 J-17 2 B-9 2 F-4 2 J-18 2 F-5 2 Cover Sheet (C) F-6 2 C-1 2 Cover Sheet (K) F-7 2 K-1 2 C-2 2 K-2 2 l C-3 2 K-3 Cover sheet (G) 2 i- C-4 2 G-1 2 K-4 2 C-5 2 G-2 2 K-5 2 C-6 2 G-3 2 K-6 2 C-7 2 G-4 2 K-7 2 C-8 2 G-5 2 l- G-6 2 Cover Sheet (L)_ Cover Sheet (D) G-7 2 i ry D-1 2 G-8 2 l i D-2 2 Cover Sheet (M) f G-9 2 M-1 2 D-3 2 G-10 2 M-2 2 D-4 2 G-11 2 M-3 2 1 ' D-5 2 G-12 2 M-4 l 2 D-6 2 G-13 2 M-5 2 D-7. 2 G-14 2 M-6 2 D-8 2 G-15 2 M-7 2 M-8 2 Cover Sheet (E) Cover Sheet (H) M-9 2
E-1 2 H-1 2 M-10 2 E-2 2 H-2 2 M-11 2
-E-3 2 H-3 2 M-12 2 E-4 2 H-4 2 M-13 2 E-5 2 M-14 2 E-6 2 E-7 Cover Sheet (I) M-15 2 2 M-16 2 E-8 2 M-17 E-9 Cover Sheet (J) 2 2 J-1 2 M-18 2 E-10 2 J-2 2 M-19 2 E-11 2 J-3 2 M-20 2 E-12 2 J-4 2 M-21 2 E-13 2 J-5 2 M-22 2 E-14 2 J-6 2 M-23 2 E-15 2 J-7 2 M-24 2 E-16 2 J-8 2 M-25 2 r
( 111 Rev. 2 1
L LIST OF rynrnVE PAGES 4 Pace ' Revision Pace Revision Pace Revision O' M-26 2 -, M-27 2-M-28 2 M-29 2 M-30 2 M-31 2 - M-32 2 M-33 2 < M-34 2 M-35 2 M-36 2
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- M-38 2-M-39 2
- M-40 2 M-41 2 M-42. 2 M-43 2 M-44 2 Cover Sheet (N)
N-1 2 7 N-2 2
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2 N-4 2 N-5 2 N-6 2 N-7 2 N-8 2
- Cover Sheet (O) l- 0-1 2 l 42 2 l= O-3 2 0-4 2 O-5 2 O-6 2 0-8 2 O-9 2 0-10 2 0-11 2 0-12 2 0-13 2 0-14 2 0-15 2 iv Rev. 2
TABLE OF COffm7IS
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V Section Title Pace INIRODUC'KRY MATERIAL List of Effective Pages i ! Table of Contents v Idst of Tableo x i List of Figures xiii List of Exhibits xvi l 1 INIRODUCTION 1-1 1.1 Overview of the Plan Update Process' 1-2 1.2 Description of the Emargency Planning 1-6 Zone (EPZ) l 1.3 Preliminary Activities 1-8 q 2. DEMAND ESTIMATION 2-1 x)- l Trip Generation; Permanent Residents; Beach Population; Seasonal Housing Residents; Overnight Au:x--- htions; Cawwonds; j Seabrook Greyhound Park; Parking at Retail ! Establishments; Employment; Seabrook Station; Medical-Related Facilities; 'Ibtal Demand in i Addition to Permanent Population; Uncertainties ; I
- 3. ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY 3-1 Capacity Estimations on Approaches to Intersections; Capacity Estimation Along Sections of Highway; General Considerations; Application to Seabrook EPZ; Two-lane Roads; Freeway Capacity; Freeway Ramps; Fog; Ice; Link Capacities; Recmmended Highway System Improv ments q
-YJ v Rev. 2.
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TABLE OF COffrENPS (cont.) . Section' Tit 1e Pace
- 4. ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME 4-1 Background; Fundamental Considerations; Estimated Tine Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5; Tine Distribution of the -
Notification Process; Tine Distribution to Prepare to Imave Work; Tine Distribution to Travel Ikme; Tine Distribution to Prepare to leave Hme; Tine Distribution for Residents & 'Iburists off the Beach Tine Distr]bition for Tourists on the Beach; Calculation of Trip Generation Tine Distribution; CcInputed Tine Distribution of Event k+1; Trip Generation Distributions for Week-end Scenarios; Trip Generation Distributions for Week-day Scenarios; Snow __ 1 Clearance Tine Distribution
- 5. ESTIMATION OF EMPIMEE POPLEATION 5-1 Internal Returning Cmunuters
- 6. DEMAND ESTIMATION EDR OFF-SEASON AND 6-1 MID-WEEK IN-SEASON SCENARIOS l Evacuating Volumes for the Sunner Mid-week, L Mid-day Scenarios vi Rev. 2.
e
TABLE OF COMTNPS .x. (cont.) l I x,) Section Title Pace
- 7. TRAFFIC CONIROL AND MANAGDOTT TACTICS 7-1 i
'ICP Activation Priority; Tine to Activate 'ICPs; Incorporation of 'ICP and ACP Priorities j and Activation Times in the ETE l
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- 8. TRAFFIC ROUTDG, CCNIROL AND MANAGDETT 8-1 i PIANS l
- 9. ACCESS CONIROL WI'IHIN, AND AT THE 9-1 PERIPHERY OF, THE D!ERGENCY PLANNIN3 ZWE (EPZ) AND DIVERSION ROUITS i
i Identification and Installation of Control i i Devices ' O)
- 10. LVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) E R 10-1 GENERAL POPULATION I
I Discussion of ETE; Sensitivity Tests- i Varying Beach Populations; Varying Permanent ! Population to 1990 Projections; Imediate General Emergency with an Order to Evacuate j (OTE); Slower Rate of Accident Escalation; Evacuee Mobilization; Time to Activate 'ICPs; ; Dcternal Shadow Evacuation Tine Estimates; Effects on Road Imrai%nts; Highway Improvements; Patterns of Traffic Congestion During Evacuation (Region 1, Scenarios 1 & 5); ; Distribution of Population and Vehicles; Sumary of Evacuation Time Analysis; .I k vii Rev. 2. )
]
p, TABLE OF CONTD7PS (cont.) Section Title Pace
- 11. r"VACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) FOR 11-1 TRANSIT OPERATIONS Estimates of Demand for Transit Service; Developnent of Bus Routes; Calculation of Transit Route Travel Tims; Procedure; Assignment of Buses to Service Schools; Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit-Dependent Persons; Mobilization Time; Inbound Travel Tim; Time to load Passengers; Outbound Travel Time; Dnergency Medical Service (D!S) Vehicles; Buses for Transit Dependent
- 12. SURVEILIANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS 12-1
- 'Ibw Vehicles
- 13. CONFIRMATION TIME 13-1 I
Sumary of ETE APPENDIX A - Glossary of Terms A-1 f APPENDIX B - Traffic Assignmnt Model B-1 l < '~ APPENDIX C - Traffic Simulation Model I-DYNEV C-1 .l l L APPENDIX D - Detailed Description of Study Procedure D-1 1 1. APPENDIX E - Ilterature Review and Data Ccanpiled to Date E-1 l' APPENDIX F - Telephone Survey Ins +m7t F-1 viii Rev. 2. O 1 l
L TABLE OF CONTDfrS {'j (cont.)
\f Section Title Pace
- i. . APPDOIX G - Tabulations of 'Iblephone Survey Data G-1 APPENDIX E - 1980 Census Data- H-1
. l APPDOIX I - Traffic Management and Control APPDOIX J - Description of Evacuation Routes J-l APPENDIX K - Evacuation = Routes K-1 ,
i 3
.l APPENDIX L - Dotalled Sketches of all Access Control L-1 i
APPENDIX M - Estimated Traffic Danands at all Origin Centroids, M-1 Icading Rates and Origin Destination Patterns j Th '
-- V APPENDIX N - Network Idnk Attributes N-1 APPDOIX O - Detailed Analysis of Massachusetts Mobilization 0-1 Using Northern Essex Ccxmunity College l'o n i a
i 4 o v ix Rev. 2.
LIST OF TABIES
. 1]g. Title Pace 1-1 Clis tic Conditions in Durham, MI: 1951-1980 1-14 2-1 Estimted Vehicle Population - Pennanent Residents 2-15 2-2 Estinates of 1990 EPZ Populations 2-16 2-3 Cartparisons of Beach Area Vehicle Capacities and Counts 2-17 2-4 Hourly Traffic Volumes Entering and Exiting the Seabrook 2-19 and Hampton Beach Amas on July 16, 1983 4-1 Number of Sampled Vehicles 4-24 4-2 Couputed Trip Generation Cumulative Distributions (%) 4-25 4-3 Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Week-end 4-27 Scenarios 4-4 Catputed Trip Generation Time Distribution for the 4-28 Mid-week, Mid-day Scenario (Distribution F) ' ,3 , 4-5 Trip Generation Tine Histograms for the Week-day 4-29 U Scenarios (Dist. F) 4-6 Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Inclement 4-30 Weather, Snow, Scenarios (Distributions G, H, I) 5-1 Year-round Employment Population Estimates by Comunity 5-8 ,
5-2 Dnployment Population Estimates by Comunity for the 5-10 i Months of July and October 5-3 Estimates of Evacuating Employees 5-11 5-4 Evacuating Employees for Various Scenarios, Expressed 5-13 in Vehicles-8-1 Assignment of Host Comunities to Comunities Within 8-4 the EPZ 8-2 Ietter to Police Chiefs 8-5 8-3 Recipients of Plans 8-8 8-4 Follow-up Intter to Police Chiefs 8-10 8-5 Foun to Specify 'ICP Priorities 8-11 G x Rev. 2.
l LIST OF TABLES. (cont.) If2 . Title pace I 10-1 Description of Evacuation Scenarios 1-10 10-16 10-2 Identification of the Seabrook Station Emergency 10-17 Planning Areas (ERPA) 10-3. Cmmunities Included Within ERPA 10 10-4 Estinated Times to Evacuate frun within 2 Miles of 10-20 Seabrook Station after the-Order to Evacu ste frun , the Indicated Regions, for the Individual evacuation Scenarios 10-5 Estinated Tines to Evacuate frm within 5 Miles of 10-21 Seabrook Station after the Order to Evacuate frun the Indicated Regions, for the Individual Evacuation Scenarios 10-6 Estinated Tines to Evacuate from within 10 Miles of 10-22 Seabrook Station after the Order to Evacuate fran the Indicated Regions, for the Individual Evacuation ._ Scenarios 10-7 Estinated Tines to Evacuate frun within the Seabrook 10-23 Station EPZ after the Order to Evacuate fran the Indicated Regions, for the Individual Evacuation Scenarios 10-8 Estinated Tines to Evacuate fran within the Associated 10-24 Area about the Seabrook Station after the Order to Evacuate fran the Indicated Regions, for the Individual Evacuation Scenarios 10-9 Estinated Tines (Hrs.: Min. ) to Evacuate the Beach Areas 10-25 in the Indicated 'Ibwns, after the Order to Evacuate for Scenario 1 (Sumer Weekend) 10-10A Sunmary of Results of Evacuation Tine Analysis: , 10-26 Scenarios 1 & 2 n 10-10B Sunmary of Results of Evacuation Tine Analysis: 10-27 Scenarios 3 & 4 xi Rev. 2. O
LIST OF TABLES (3 - (cont.) Asl No. Title Pace 10-10C Sunnary of Results of Evacuation Tire Analysis: 10-28 Scenarios 5 & 6 10-10D Sumary of Results of Evacuation Tire Analysis: 10-29 Scenarios 8 & 9 11-1 Number of Non-Returners for Households with 1 Car 11-25 and 1 Camuter Who Drives 11-2 Number of Non-Returners for Households with 2 Cars 11-26 and 2 Ca muters Who Drive 11-3 Number of Non-Returners for Households with 3 Cars 11-27 and 3 Camuters Who Drive
- 11-4 Number of Non-Returners for Households with 4 Cars 11-28 l~ and 4 Camuters Who Drive 11-5 Estimates of Ambulatory Persons Requiring Transit Who 11-29 g Do Not Reside in Special Facilities 1
-U 11-6 Calculated Number of Persons Requiring Transit 11-30 11-7 Estimated Transit Requirements- 11-31 11-8A Results of Analysis to Obtain ETE for Transit-Dependent 11-32 j Persons Within the EPZ (Massachusetts Comunities) 11-8B Results of Analysis to Obtain LTE for Transit-Dependent 11-33 Persons Within the EPZ (New Hampshire Comunities) l_ 12-1 Tow Truck locations 12-4 ,O xii Rev. 2.
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LIST OF FIGUTES
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(w) tb. Title Pace 1 General Highway Map 1-15 1-2 Geographic Incation of Seabrook Station 1-16 1-3 Link-!bde Representation of the Evacuation !btwork for Seabrook Station 2-1 Distributions of Elapsed Time for Various Pre-evacuation 2-20 Activities 2 Household Size Within Seabrook Station EPZ 2-21 2-3 Auto Ownership of Households within Seabrook Station EPZ 2-22 2-4 Weekend Vehicle Demand 2-23 2-5 Weekend Vehicle Demand - Inland 2 2-6 Rocrus in Yearly and Seasonal Overnight Acccamodations 2-25 2-7 Vehicles Associated with Yearly and Seasonal Overnight 2-26 Accumudations (Fstimates Exclude Vehicles at the Beach) 2-8 Vehicles at Campgrounds 2-27 G 2-9 Vehic'.es at Campgrounds (Estimates Exclude Vehicles 2-28 at the Beach) 2-10 Parking Iot Capacity (Vehicles) Along U.S. Highway 1 2-29 2-11 Parking Iot Capacity (Vehicle Demand) on U.S. Highway 1 2-30 (Estimates Based on 40 Percent Occupancy) 2-12 Capacity of Medical-Related Facilities 2-31 3-1 Fundamental Relationship Between Volume and Density 3-20 1 4-1 Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation 4-31 9-1 Diversion Route and Access Control Cordon for Seabrook 9-5 l Station Emergency Planning Zone 1 10-1 Map of EPZ Delineating all Emergency Response Planning 10-30 Areas (ERPA) pJ
- s. xiii Rev. 2.
i LIST OF FIGURES (cont.) No. Title Pace j 10-2A Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 1, 10-31 at time 0:30 after Order to Evacuate 10-2B Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 1, 10-32 at time 1:30 after Order to Evacuate
;
10-2C Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 1, 10-33 ! at time 3:30 after Order to Evacuate 10-2D Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 1, 10-34 at time 5:30 after Order to Evacuate 10-3A Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 5, 10-35 at time 0:55 after Order to Evacuate 10-3B Traffic Cungestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 5, 10-36 at time 1:55 after Order to Evacuate 10-3C Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 5, 10-37 at time 3:55 after Order to Evacuate 10-4 Pemanent Residents 10-38 10-5A Scenarios 1 and 2: Sunmer Weekend Inland Population .10-39 of Duployees Who Live Outside of EPZ 10-5B Scenarios 1 and 2: Sumer Weekend Transient Population 10-40 > (includes beach area employees) 10-5C Scenarios 1 and 2: Sumer Weakend 'Ibtal Population 10-41 10-6A Scenarios 3 and 4: Sumer Weekday Inland Population 10-42 of anployees Who Live Outside of EPZ 10-6B Scenarios 3 and 4: Sunmer Weekday Transient Population 10-43 (includes beach area ernployees) 10-6C Scenarios 3 and 4: Sumer Weekday Total Population 10-44 10-7A Scenarios 5, 6 and 7: Winter Midweek, Midany Employees 10-45 l Nho Live Outside the EPZ 10-78 Scenarios 5-10: Winter Transient Population 10-46 10-7C Scenarios 5, 6 and 7: Winter Midweek, Midday Total 10-47 Population 10-8A Scenarios 8, 9 and 10: Winter Evening and Weekend 10-48 Duployees Who Live Outside of EPZ xiv Rev. 2. O
LIST OF FIGURES (7 (cont.) No. Title Page 10-8B Scenarios 8, 9 and 10: Winter Evening and Weekend 10-49
'Ibtal Population 10-9 Pennanent Residents (In Vehicles) 10-50 10-10A -Scenarios 1 and 2: Stmner Weekend Inland Population 10-51 of Dnployees Who Live Outside of EPZ 10-10B Scenarios 1 and 2: Summer Weekend Transient Population 10-52 (includes beach area suployees) 10-10C Scenarios 1 and 2: Sumer Weekend 'Ibtal Population 10-53 (In Vehicles) 10-11A Scenarios 3 and 4: Stnumer Weekday Inland Population 10-54 l of Employees Who Live Outside of EPZ (In Vehicles) 10-11B Scenarios 3 and 4: Suniner Weekday Transient Population 10-55 l (includes beach area snployees) 10-11C Scenarios 3 and 4: Sunmer Weekday 'Ibtal Population 10-56 L
(In Vehicles)
- _ ( ) 10-12A Scenarios 5, 6 and 7
- Winter Midweek, Midday Dnployees 10-57 l Who Live Outside EPZ (In Vehicles) 10-12B Scenarios 5, 6 and 7: Winter Transient Population 10-58 (In Vehicles) l- 10-12C Scenarios 5, 6 and 7: Winter Midweek, Midday Total 10-59 Population (In Vehicles)
.10-13A Scenarios 8, 9 and 10: Winter Evening and Weekend 10-60 Duployees Who Live Outside of EPZ (In Vehicles) 10-13B Scenarios 8, 9 and 10: Winter Evening and Weekend 10-61
'Ibtal Population (In Vehicles) 11-1 Time Distribution of Arrival Hcme 11-36 O
Q xv Rev. 2.
l LIST OF EXHIBITS
,f-~ -
Dchibit Titie- Pace
\,j' 2-1 Estimation of Persons per Vehicle for the 2-32
- Evacuation of Pemanent Residents 9-1 General Provisions of the MUICD 9-6 9-2 - Excerpts frm MUICD Section G Signing for 9-7 Civil Defense 9-3 Excerpts frm the MUICD on Barricades 9-8 9-4 Excerpts frm the MUICD on Cone Design and Application 9-9 13-1 Estimated Number of 'Iblephone Calls Required for 13-3 Confimation of Evacuation r
(). QJ b) U xvi Rev. 2.
i l
- 1. I?TTRODUCTION
~} 'M mis report describes the analyses undertaken, and the results obtained, in a study to update the existing Evacuation Plan for Seabrook Station, located in Seabrook, New Hampshire. his plan is designed to protect the health and safety of the public in the event that an stergency evacuation is crdered as a protective action in response to an accident at Seabrook Station.
This effort was perfonted over the period extending from mid-August 1985 l to the date of this publication. During the initial developtent phase, seven-l Progress Reports were prepared. We first of these was published on ibvernber 11, 1985 and the final one on April 7,1986. Wese Progress Reports were canbined and edited to fonn an initial Draft Report dated May 1,- 1986, subsequently revised on June 2, 1986.
'Ihe Progress Reports were reviewed and cartrtented upon by the Federal Emergency Managertent Agency (FEMA). Other reviews were undertaken by the Civil Defense Agencies of Massachusetts and New Hampshire, his document includes responses to these reviews as well as editorial changes designed to enhance the p report. In addition, work products developed by other consultants to the State 's J Civil Defense Agencies were incorporated, where a p eg-iate. Finally, local and State public officials, as well as private citizens, were interviewed. .In particular, we wish to express our appreciation to all the Police Chiefs of the comunities within the Seabrook Station Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) who provided valued guidance in the developrtent of this plan.
Other guidance is provided by documents published by federal gow.meit agencies. Most important of these are: Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of 1Alclear Power Plants, NURED 0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev.1, Novenber 1980. Analysis of %chniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Diergency Planning Zones, NUREG/CR-1745, Novanber 1980. r-
;N) 1-1 Rev. 2
;
- -i . I Overview of the Plan Update Process ,
The follcwing outline presents a brief description of the work effort in chronological sequence
- 1. The initial effort consisted of gathering infornations o Initial neeting with the Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency (MCDA) to defdne the scope of work.
o Review of existing reports describing past evacuation studies. ; o Conducted a field survey of the EPZ highway systs and of beach-area traffic conditions during the last two weeks in August 1985 and over the Labor Day Weekend. '
.o Retained a subcontractor to acqui.re data describing beach ,
traffic in the Salisbury-Seabrook-Hampton area . on the weekends 4 of August 24th and 31st (Iabor Day weekend) 1985 and the mid-week period between these weekends. o Developed a survey instrument to solicit data- describing the-travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the Seabrook EPZ. This survey also obtained data on the public's projected responses to an mergency at Seabrook Station. o Retained a subcontractor to conduct a stratified randam-sample telephone survey of the populace within the Seabrook EPZ in October 1985. ! l' o Conducted onsite interviews with emergency planning personnel l (fire depar:ments, police departmants, State Troopers, planning , [ personnel, public works departments, town managers); town l elected officials; regional planning agencie ; Chambers of l 1-2 Rev. 2 1' l l
Commerca; Sttto Park D partments, highway and planning officials; and citizen emergency planning cc:rnittees. \' ) o J tended a meeting with FEMA personnel at Region 1
!!aad&mrters .
o Obtained datographic data frun state planning offices. o Deceived, and analyzed, aerial photographs of the coastal areas within the SeabIcok EPZ. Wese photographs were taken on l' weekends during August 1985 and July 1987.
- 2. After reviewug and analyzing this infornation, it kes decided to proceed with the task of pmparing the preliminary input stream for the IDYNEV nodel. '
o Estinated the traffic demand based on the available infouration derived fran census data, frun prior studies undertaken by the NRC, data provided by local and state agencies and frun the telephone survey. (~]'s R._. o Dnployed the procedums specified in the 1985 Highway Capacity l Manual (E24) and the data acquired during the field survey, to estimate the capacity of all highway segnents carprising the evacuation routes, o Developed the link-node represcntation of the evacuation network, which is used as the basis for canputer analysis, which calculates the Evacuation Tine Estinates (UTE). Se IDYNEV System, developed by KLD for FDCt, was used to parfonn these calculations, o Prepamd the input stream for the IDYNW Systen. l 1 [ \ -
! l-3 Rev. 2
I r o Exeeated IDYNEV to p:: wide tne initial estimtes of evacaation routing and Evacuation Tine Estim tes (UTE) for a single scenario.
- 3. Based primrily on the survey results, the distributions of Trip Cuneration tims were estimted for the various p:palation segments:
pemanent residents and transients (i.e. , tourists and sployees).
- 4. Evacuation scenarios were defined. These scenarios reflect the variation in dmand, trip generation dictribution and in highway capacity, associated with different seasons, day of week, time of day and weather conditions.
- 5. Updated the dmand estintion of sployees who work within the EPZ, based on nore recent infontion obtained frun State labor agencies.
- 6. Defined a prelininary set of traffic nanagment tactics to be applied at specified Traffic Control Posts ('ICP ) , for subsequent review by local and State Police personnel. ,
- 7. Updated and expanded the preliminary ETE tesults to reflect the recent informtion quantifying the etnr.nt employnent estimtes.
- 8. Partitioned the EPZ into Dnergency Response Planning Areas (ERPA),
then defined " Regions", where each region consists of a grouping of t enntiguous ERPA. Each region either approxis tes a circular area or a quadrant within the EPZ, as required by NURD3 0654. Each ERPA is an aggregation of two or nere adjoining ecmnunities. , l
- 9. Conducted sensitivity tests with the IDYNEV nodel to quantify the change in ETE associated with different beach-area populations.
- 10. Assigned Host Conmunities to each cmmunity within the EPZ and developed traffic routing patterns for evacuating vehicles.
1-4 Rev. 2
l
- 11. Conducted a survey of police chiefs within the EPZ to solic t their Opinions and reccrmendations on traffic routing, control ans
( ) management. The preliminary design (items 6 and 10, ateve) was used as the basis for discussion. All but 3 of the 23 local law ! enfcrecrent cfficers contributed valuable reccumendations. All reccr:rnendations were integrated into the plan.
- 12. Using the traffic managment policies derived in step 11, a ctr:plete !
l set of ETE was emputed. This set consists of over 134 distinct cases; each case corresponds to the evacuation of a specified maion ; l for a specifierd evacuation scenario. A total of 13 regions and 10 J l scenarios were considered plus four scenarios for the beach region. ;
- 13. Documented the results of these studies in fornets responsive to
! URB 3 0654.
- 14. Identified Access Control Posts (ACP) at locations along the periphery of the EPZ and developed traffic management control to be l applied there.
'"l 15. Identified a diversion route circunventing the EPZ.
- 16. Estimated demand for transit services for persons at home.
Detennined the number of bus trips and buses requirtxi for each route within each ccumulity. These estimates were based on the survey data base and on an analysis of route travel tines.
- 17. Deteunined the ETE for all transit activities.
- 18. Designed a procedure to confinn the evacuation process and estimated l
person resources for its impimentation. l 19. Discussed the advisability of aerial, patrol, and fixed point l surveillance and the stationing of tow trucks at strategic locations I inside the EPZ and along its periphery. 1.2 Description of the Emroency Planninc Zone (EPZ) l s b(~ 1-5 Rev. 2 l l l
1.2 rescriptien of the Eternency Planninc Zone (EPZ) The Seabrook Station site is locate:1 near the northern boundary cf the tcun of Seabrook in Rockingham County, !W Hampshire, approximately 2 miles west of the Hampton Harbor Inlet. Se Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the plume exposure pattway includes - 6 comunities in Essex Ccunty, Massachusetts and 17 comunities in Roc.kingham County, ! W Hampshire Massachusetts ! W Hampshire Amesbury Brentwood thfields Merrimac East Kingston thton th bury Exeter ! brth Hampton thbaryport Greenland Ports =outh Salisbury Hampton Rye West Ihtury Hampton Falls Seabrook Kensington South Hampton Kingston Stratham
! W Castle Portsmouth and Newburyport are cities. The other comunities are towns.
Figure 1-1 cilsplays the genoral site area including the location of Seabrook Station (4), the EPZ boundary, all comunities within the EPZ, the nejcr l highways in the area and the Host Ccrmunities (*) where the reception centers are l located. Figure 1-2 indicates the geographical area around Seabrook Station. ] l Re coastal area extending fran Plum Island, Massachusetts, in the town of l t h tury, northward to Portsnouth, New Hampshire is a popular sunmer tourist ; attraction. 'Ib a large extent, the nest popular beach areas are separated fran ) the mainland by narshlands. The topography east of Interstate Route 95 is nestly flat. 'Ib the west of I-95, the country side is rolling with scme hills exceeding 300 feet in elevation. Were are many lakes, rivers and streams within the EPZ. Se nest ! l prtminent of these are the Merrinack River which is about 5 miles south of Seabrook Station, the Squamscott River about 8 miles to the northwest, lake 1-6 Rev. 2
y Attitash about 7 miles to the southwest and several large ponds in Kingston atout 10 miles to the west.
,v )
The highway systan is ccuprised primrily of two-lane two-way highways. Se mjor routes include the Interstate Routes 95 and 495. We fomer is four lanes wide in each direction throughout nest of its length within the EPZ although it narrows to three lanes where it crosses the Piscataqua River into l Maine, on the north, and the Merrimack River toward the south. Interstate 495 is two lanes in width in each direction where it joins I-95 but widens to three lanes about two miles south of that point. l Other limited access highways include the Spaulding Tarnpike, two lanes in each direction, at the northern extremity of the EPZ and Route 51/101, which is the major east-west route in the area, and of fers one lane in each direction within the EPZ. l Major routes which are not limited access include the north south U.S. Routes 1 and 1A. Route 1 is parallel to the coast and about 3-4 miles inland. l Access to Route 1 is limited in the lhturyport area but is at grade elsewhere;
' I Route 1 is three lanes wide throughout nest of its length in New Hampshire, four uJ lanes wide in Newbaryport, and nostly two lanes (one in each direction) elsewhere. Route 1A is the coastal route and provides two lanes in each direction for a portion of its length and one lane elsewhere. Other important routes, with one lane in each duection, are State Routes 84, 85, 87, 88, 101, 107,107A,108,110,111,113,125,151 and 286. See Figure 1-1 for locations.
l
'ntis area enjoys a variable climate with tmperature ranging frun well belcw zero (F) in the winter to as high as 100 degrees (F) in the sumer.
Average annual rainfall is about 43 inches while sncwfall averages about 63 l inches. The nonthly variations in tmperature and precipitation in Durham, New L Hampshire over 3 decades is given in Table 1-1. l l l l l l 1 1 ( ' ;d
)
1-7 Rev. 2
. 4g.
1.3 Preliminarv Activities Since this plan constitutes an update of prior work, it was necessary to i familiarize ourselves with the existing plan. These activities are described below. ;
;
Initial Meetince Definina the Scoce of Work
;
The initial activity was a meeting with Mr. Robert Baulay, Director of the Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency (MCDA). At 'that meeting, Mr. Boulay outlined the scope of our activities: o 2 update the curmnt evacuation plan and to ccrupute revised Evacuation Tine Estimates (ETE). o b acquim whatever current 1.nfomation is needed for this activity, o 2 meet with the six EPZ Planning Ccanittees in Massachusetts to solicit infomation, to describe the activities which are being undertaken and to addmss any concerns which am expressed. o 2 cooperate with all other mergency planning groups and public officials and mergency personnel, both in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, o 2 report all pro.yress to, and accept di.rection frun, Mr. Buzz Hausner, MCDA consultant. A subsequent meeting was held in Concord, New Hampshire at the office of l the New Hanpshire Office of Emergency Managment (!&OEM). 'Ihat meeting, with Mr. l Richard Strme,1&OEM Director at that time, served to extend the scope of the effort to include that portion of the EPZ which is in New Hampshire. 1-8 Rev. 2
, Literature Review
("' ) 1r Associates was provided with copies of documents describing past studies and analyses leading to the developuent of evacuation plans and of LTE. We also obta2ned support.ing documents fran a variety of sources, which contained inication needed to fem the data base used fcr conducting evacuation analyses. Appe:viix E is a listing ef the mjor sources of infomtion and includes brief descriptions and sumaries of the data contained themin. Field Surveys KLD professional personnel drove the entire highway system within the EPZ and for smo distance outside. Each driver recorded the characteristics of each section of highway on audio tape. 'Ihese characteristics include: ! Number of lanes Posted speed Pavement width Actual free speed Shoulder type & width Abutting land'use Intersection configuration Control devices O. Lane channelization Interchange gemetries (#) Unusual characteristics: Gemetries: curves, grades Narrow bridges, sharp curves, poor pavement, flood warning signs, inadequate delineations, etc. The audio cassettes were then transcribed. 'Ihis information was refemnced while preparing the input stream for the IDYNEV nodel. Field surveys were perfomed both during weekdays and on wekends. Much of the tire on the August 1985 weekends was spent at the beach areas. l Unfortunately, congested conditions weIn limited along the beach access roads for these weekends due to mild -- but not hot -- weather, plus occasional rain. One Saturday night, however, the weather was pleasant and the beach areas were l crowded. l 1 l (/ 1-9 Rev. 2 1
l I l Additional field surveys were perforre:1, primrily on the beach areas, over the July 4th weakend,1986. '1he weather was good on Friday, July 4th with , crtuded beaches; pleasant on saturday moming, July 5th, beo:rning cloudy with ! sme rain in the afternoon; cloudy with rain on Sunday, July 6th. This survey ] gathertd data on vehicle occupancy. l Aerial photographs at the beach areas were taken on July 18, 1987 together l with supporting ground sunsys of traffic novament.
%1echone Survey A telephone survey was undertaken in order to gather information needed for the evacuation study. Appendix F exhibits the survey instrument. Appendix G contains tabulations of scrie of the data ccrapiled fran the survey returns. I
'Ihis data was utilized to develop estimtes of vehicle occupancy during an evacuation and to estimate elapsed tines between notification of an emergency and the start of evacuation trips. '1his data base was also referenced to estimate l the number of transit-dependent residents and ccumuter traffic patterns. -
l l Onsite Interviews , l l KLD personnel visited the EPZ area on a bi-weekly basis during the first I l 21/2 nonths of this project. Each visit consisted of fran 2 to 4 days; each day l 1 included several interviews with different groups of people. l These interviews consisted primarily of KLD personnel acquiring information which could prove useful for developing an evacuation plan. Participants in these interviews included town police and fire chiefs, enzgency j planners, public work supervisors, town managers, elected officials, chamber of ccrimarce personnel, state planning and highway personnel, regional planning , l cmmission personnel, state parks personnel, and state =mpicy planning ' personnel. In addition, KID was invited to address two citizen estergency planning ccmnittees in Massachusetts. At these neetings, the KID representative described the work effort and responded to all questions. Visits were also made to the Seabrook Station to gather infomation. I 1-10 Rev. 2 l l l
l ASLB Litication
/ -
l ( ) l his Evacuation Time Estimte Study was extensively litigated as part of l the Atanic Safety and Licensing Board (ASLB) hearings on the New Hampshire l Radiological Emergency Response Plan (NHRERP) and Seabrook Plan for l Massachusetts Comunities (SPMC). Rese hearings were held periodically fran l 1987 through 1989. me hearings resulted in two decisions, December 1988 and l tbvernber 1989, both of which discussed aspects of this study. All inportant l Inforetion and studies that were developed to support these hearings and any l subsequent ASLB recwmadations for changes and or improvsents have been l incorporated into this study. Developino the Evacuation Plan he overall study procedure to develop Evacuatien Time Estimates (LTE) is outlined in Appendix D. Particular attention was focused on estimating tourist traffic, especially that widch is concentrated in the beach areas. Aerial photographs were obtained which were used to estimate parking capacity at the beach areas and to obtain counts of vehicles parked at the beach areas. Other ('^; photographs enabled us to estimte maximum people density on the beach itself. O Dcmographic data was obtained frun several scaces, as detailed later in this report. 'Ihis data was analyzed and converted into vehicle danand data. Flighway capacity was estimted for each highway segnent based on the field surveys and on the principles specified in the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual. %e link-node representation of the physical highway network was developed using large-scale mps and the observations obtained fran the field survey. his network is shown in Figure 1-3, with the general directions of evacuating traffic indicated thereon. We input stream for the IDYNEV systan was then created, checked, and debugged. (~ i V l-ll Rev. 2
i I Anah tical 'Ibols A variety of analytical tools was ernployed for this study. %e mos j prtrninent of these is the IDYNEV (Interactive Dynamic Network LVacuation) , ccrnputer system which was developed by KID under contract with the Federal : EmerJency Managanant Agency (FD%). IDYNEV consists of three subtedels: i l o An equilibrium traffic distribution and assignment model (for details, see Appendix B) o A necroscopic traffic si:nulation nodel (for details, see Appendix C) i o An intersection capacity nodel (for details, see Highway Research - Record No. 772, Transportation Research Board, 1980, papers by l Lieha m n and by McShane and Lieberman). Se pdure for applying IDYNLV within the framework of developing an update to the %hmok Evacuation Plan is outlined in Appendix D. Appendix A is a glossary of te.nns used in Traffic Engineering. he evacuation analysis procedures are based upon the need tot o Route traffic along paths of travel that will expedite their travel from their respective points of origin to points outside the EPZ restrict movement toward Seabrook Station to the extent practicable disperse traffic demand so as to avoid focusing dennand on a limited number of highways 1-12 Rev. 2 G,
I o Satisfy, to the extent possible under mergency conditions, . perceived "best" paths out of the EPZ 7
'suj ;-
o .wwe traffic in directions which are generally radial, relative to the location of Seabrook Station. A Trip Table, which is a strix of origin-destination datend volumes, was developed which satisfied the specified linkage between emmunities within the EPZ and host emmunities outside the EPZ. me IDYNEV Traffic Assignment nodel is executed to produce output which identifies the "best" traffic routing, subject to the design conditions outlined above. In addition to this information, [very)
~ rough estimates of travel tine are provided, together with turn-novanent data required by the IDYNEV simulation nodel.
We sinulation nodel is then executed to provide a detailed description of traffic operations on the evacuation network. Bis description enables the analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop countermeasures which are designed to expedite the movement of vehicles. ( ) As outlined in Appendix D, this procedure consists of an iterative ('> design-analysis-redesign sequence of activities. If properly done, this procedure converges to yield an Evacuation Plan wttich best services the evacuating public, l
l l 1-13 Rev. 2
TABL" 1-3
,cw CLIYATIC CCNDITICNS IN DURHAM. telt 1951-1980 i i m)
"tr terature (deo.Fi Rainfall (inchesi Sncu (inches 1 Pmth I&t! Eigh DIED 12 & liftaD DE Jan. -30 61 3.51 9.68 16.5 38.5 l Feb. -22 69 3.12 5.88 14.3 48.5 March -18 82 3.66 10.82 12.0 43.6 April 9 90 3.80 13.35 2.1 9.3 May 22 94 3.57 12.00 0 0.2 ,
June 30 98 3.00 6.88 0 0 July 35 99 3.00 6.69 0 0 Aug. 28 102 3.31 6.97 0 0 Sept. 24 99 3.37 8.40 0 0 0:t. 14 87 3.91 10.50 0.3 3.0 lbv. 3 76 4.70 10.31 3.0 14.5 Dec. -22 68 4.28 9.72 15.2 36.5 1-14 Rev. 2
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- 2. DLvRD EST! VAT!CN 3
() me estirates of dwand constitute a critical elenent in developing an evacuation plan. This estimte consists of three exponents:
- 1. An estimte of population, stratified into grcaps, in c:rnunities within the EPZ.
- 2. An estinte, for each population grouping, of man occupancy per evacuating vehicle. mis estimte is used to detemine the number of evacuating verticles.
;
- 3. An estin te of potential double-counting of vehicles.
A variation of this approach was applied in order to estimte beach area traffic. '1his was necessary since the mjority of beach traffic consists of transients, nest of whom enter the EPZ frm locations outside. As a result, we relied on spirical observation of the number of vehicles < / l l to detemine the reasonably expected peak population within the beach area. 'Ihis is a valid approach since discussions with public officials confirmd that, with l few exceptions, people at the beach have access to a vehicle. Rus , the l l evacuation of people frm the beach area will be prinarily reflected in the number of evacuating private vehicles. 1 i l By accurately estimting the number of vehicles within the beach area, we
- 1. have satisfied the input requirmants for an evacuation plan. - Estimtes of population can be based on accurate estimtes of per-vehicle person occupancy. ,
Sus, for the beach area, nere reliable estimtes are fortheming if we reverse l the sequence of steps 1 and 2, abwe, by first estimating the number of evacuating vehicles, then using the vehicle-occupancy figure to estim te population. l During the sumer season, vacationers and tourists enter the EPZ in large l l numbers. These non-residents my dwell within the EPZ for the entiru season, for 1 a short period (e.g., one or two weks), for a weekend, overnight, or my enter
- i ;
- j. L/ 2-1 Rev. 2 l
l l l
t and leave within one day. Estinates of t.he size of these population wapments nust be obtained, so that the associated number of vehicles can be ascenained. The sper of double-counting of people and vehicles nust be addressed: a vehicle and its occupants cannot occupy two disparate locations at the same time. Consider a vacatiening family that registers at a notel, tmvels to the beach in the norning, then does sono shopping, away frtra the beach, in the evenmg before returning to the notol. If we consider a scenario where the accident occurs at about 2:00 PM when the beaches are nest crowded, then this family, and its vehicle, would nest likely be at the beach. If an evening scenario is being studied, then the vehicle would be at a retail parking lot, er perhaps, back at the notel. Clearly, since this vehicle cannot be at all 3 locations siruitaneously, its location at the instant an crder to evacuate is announced, depends on the scenario being studied. It is seen that the number of vehicles at each location depends on time of day. It is clearly wrono to estinate counts of vehicles by simply adding up the capacities of different types of parking facilities, without considering the whereabouts of the vehicles. For example, notel parking lots which are full at dawn, nay be alnest supty at noon. Similarly, beach parking lots which are full at noon, nay be alnest aupty at dawn. Another element that nust be considered in an evacuation plan is the need to provide for transit 4ependent people. These people may be youngsters in school, persons in institutions without access to private vehicles or who cannot provide for themselves, as well as residents and tourists who do not have access to a private vehicle. Trip Generation Evacuation trips do not "just happen". 'Ihese trips are " generated" at the time the vehicle leaves its " origin" (i.e. , driveway of a residence, notel lot, public parking lot, etc.) to begin the evacuation trip. 2-2 Rev. 2
Between the tim notification of a accident is given by the cctivation of 7 si ens to the tire that the evacuation trip begins, the evacuees my be j j perfoming a sequence of preliminary activities, depending on tire-of-day and other scenario censiderations: o Cmmuters will prepare to leave work and secure their places of business, if necessary. i t o Camuters will trayal htme frun work. , o Families will pack clothes and other provisions, and secure their hmes (or fams). Another tire lag is notification tim -- the elapsed tire between the issuance of the order to evacuate, and the receipt of this notice by msnbers of the public.
%ese elapsed tims will vary frcn one population group to the next, frm one scenario to the next and, of course, frm one household to the next. Rus ,
(~j the trip generation tim (i.e. , the elapsed tim between the issuance of the id order to evacuate and the beginning of the evacuation trip) will vary frm one group of people in a vehicle to another. We can state that the tine lag associated with each preliminary activity can be represented by a statistical distribution which describes the range of elapsed tims for the evacuating public. We suney (see Appendix F) obtained inform tion which quantified 3 of these distributions, Figure 2-1 displays these distributions. Ibr each scenario, we must perfom a series of calculations, using the distributions of Figure ?-1, plus a reasonable estimte of the distribution of notification time, to obtain the distri.bution of Trip Generation tire. Experience -- and theory -- indicate that ETE is generally insensitive to this distribution of Trip Generation time, whenever the tsuporal extent of the trip generation process is significantly less than the evacuation tine (ETE). O Rev. 2 C) 2-3
i mis is generally tne case e en evacuating traffic experiences extensive ! congestion. On the other hand, when congestion is absent, er limited in spatial and/or tmporal extent, then travel time can be smll mlative to trip generation tim . In these cases, the CE will directly aflect the trip generation time (i.e. , ETE = Trip Generation ti:m + (sm11) travel time). f ! (See Section 10.) Pemanent Residents
%e estimates of pemanent population within the EPZ are given in Appendix E, Item 15. We two major sources of these data -- State projections and Town Clerk estimates -- are in general overall a vaunt, but with sczne important !
differences at the town level. We have decided to accept the Town Clerks' estimates since they repmsent data acquired in early 1985 and my therefore be l nere accurate. The second step of the estimation process is presented in Exhibit 2-1. As detailed there, we mploy data obtained frun the telephone survey to estimato the average person occupancy of vehicles evacuating fran the EPZ. Supporting data are presented in Figures 2-2 and 2-3 and in Appendix G. Using an average vehicle occupancy of 2.6, the number of evacuating vehicles servicing the pemanent residents may be calculated. Table 2-1 presents these results, j It is appropriate to determine the extent to which these ETE would be l affected, if at all, by the 4% increase in resident population fran 1986 to-1990. l 'Ib perfom this study, the following analyses were undertaken: l l 1. Data provided by the Massachusetts Institute for Social and Econmic j Research MISER) of the University of Massachusetts included projected 1 population estimates for each ecrmunity within the Massachusetts l portion of the EPZ for the year 1990. These data are presented on l Table 2-2. 2-4 Rev. 2
h l 2. Data provided by the !W Hampsttim State Planning Office include:2 l population estimates for each ccrmanity within the !W Hampshi.ru j l portien of the EPZ fer the years 1986, 1987, 1988. Using the average , I annual greath rates over this : e year period, the projected l population in the year 1990 were calcalated these data are presented l on Table 2-2. l l 3. It was assumed, due to the absence of data, that non beach area l transient and sployment levels in 1990 were those of 1986. Beach l area transient and eployment levels were those of 1987. l l 'Ib evnluate the effect of the 1990 population on the ETE, the input l streams for the IDYNLV rodel were rodified and the ETE for Region 1 cmputed. l (See Section 10. ) Were emputations indicated that there would be no naterial l change in the ETE and the ETE (based on 1986 ;xpulation numbers) adequately l represent current conditions. Beach Population
,m An estinate of the beach population was obtained by counting vehicles lv) within the beach area from aerial films. W e number of persons was determined by counting the number of people in cars traveling to the bech areas to estimate the average person occupancy.
Our studies indicate that beach population can vary widely, frm day to
' day, depending nest strongly on weather conditions. Beach population also varies with time of day. On a sunny day it generally peaks at about 2:00 PM, another, lower, peak occurs at night.
l Appendix E, Its 20, presents the beach area vehicle counts based upon an , j aerial survey done on July 18, 1987. The results of this survey which was done j shortly after noon, were projected to the 2:00 PM peak population period. The l peak number of vehicles projected to be present in transit. This total of 30,733 l vehicles, provides a reasonable expectation of the peak beach population and is l used as part of the basis for the Evacuation Tire Estinates emputed. t
,/ )
? ! \ l l V 2-5 Rev. 2 l
f, l i A " peak-of-peaks" population of the beach areas may be reasonably l postulated to reach as high as 35,000 to 36,000 vehicles for short periods of I tire. This is based on the use of approximately 90% of the raxim.rn parking l capacity wttien can be estimated at 39,000 spaces. However, this peak-of-peaks is l too limitcd tcrnporally to be of value to the protective action decisionmaker. It is instructive to ccrapare the estirates of beach area vehicle ; j population presented by other investigators, with those obtained using the aerial photographs. Table 2-3 lists these ccruparisons. It must be amphasized that parking capacities limit the number of people who occupy the beach areas at any reint in time. This statistic is quite different frtrn the statistic which quantifies the number of people who visit the beach areas over a 24-hour period. The cvacuation plan must consider the l reasonably expectable peak traffic wttich could occupy the beach areas. According to data collected by INM Associates in 1983 (see iten 9, l Appendix E), the peak traf fic volume occurred on Saturday, July 16th. Table 2-4 l roads: stumarizes the traffic counts entering Hampton and Seabrook Deaches emr ' l a 24-hour period along all acceas roads.
'Ibtal Entering Access Road Direction Traffic fveh.)
Route 51 Eastbound 12,604 Route IA, north of Route 51 Southbound 11,634 Route 1A, north of Route 286 Northbound 14,659
'Ibtal 38,897 At a mean occupancy of 2.4 persons per vehicle, approxinately 93,350 people entered Hampton and Seabrook Beaches over 24 hours. (Of course, scrne portion of these trips were multiple trips nade by the same persons in the same 2-6 Rev. 2
vehicle). Of particular relevance, is the rate of accumulation of vehicles within this beach area as well as the raximum net influx of vehicles on this peak () sumer weekend day. Table 2-4 pasents this data. As is indicated in Table 2-4, the raximum net influx occurred in early afterncen at about 2:00 R4 and arounted to 5,674 vehicles. This figure cmpares with a total parking capacity for Hampton and Seabrook Beaches of 10,420 vehicles. mus, this raxirum influx of vehicles, on the rest crwded day of 1983 (which was a banner year), consumed about 55 percent of the estinated available parking capacity. Bis figure confims other studies (ite 6, App. E) which show that about half of all tourists are day-trippers. me naximum net increase in population, at 2.4 persons per vehicle, was about 13,600. l Still another approach that nay be usai in estinating dmand is to cmpute the naxinum person capacity of the (sandy) beach. This approach is valid since peak beach capacity takes place at about 2:00 E4 wtien the net influx approaches zero (note change in sign for the net influx, Table 2-4). As noted in the Dufresne-Henry report (ite 3, App. E), the Hampton Deach (w; ) sandy area, north to Route 101E, has a capacity which can acccamodate 19,000 persons at high tide (the sand is wet below the mean high tide nark and is not used for spreading blankets) . Thus, with 2.4 persons per vehicle, on average, a total of 7,917 " car-loads" would fill the beach to capacity. This empares with a parking capacity in that area of about 8,300 cars (7,770 + 500). In addition, a significant number of people park north of Route 101E and in Seabrook Beach, then walk to Hampton Beach or take the shuttle bus. Of course, not all the people in the beach area are on the beach. In sumary, estinates based on differing perspectives of the spirical data base, tend to confirm one-another. Specifically, direct observations of l parking capacity and of traffic volumes entering and leaving the area and of the l sandy beach person capacity, all provide consistent estinates of vehicle and person population. l V 2-7 Rev. 2
I Seasonal Housino Fesidents The vehicle population on the beach areas, which represents wekend occupancy of seasonal housing there, has already been included in our count of beach parking. However, we nust consider the vehicle population which is off the beach areas and which services seasonal residents. A primary source of double-counting must be considered. If the beaches are packed to capacity, it follows that at least a portion of the vehicles servicing seasonal vacationers located off the beach, will have been driven to the beach and parked there. Of course, same of the seasonal dwellings are close enough to the beach for people to leave their cars and walk to tha beach. To the [ extent that vehicles are driven to the beach, it would be improper to count these vehicles at the seasonal dwelling and at the beach. In order to estinate tourist population, not included in the beach area vehicle count, we seek an estinate of the number of those vehicles which remain in the EPZ at the tine the beach is nest crowded, but are not at the beach. We will, therefore, accept the figures provided by the IRC l, as shown in Figure 2-4, with the following exceptions:
- 1. We will exclude frm consideration those vehicles at seasonal housing which are located on the_ beaches, since these vehicles have already been counted. Excluding the vehicles in the seaward sectors of Figure 2-4 from 2 miles, outward, will avoid double-counting of the beach vehicles.
- 2. Based on discussions with managers of tourist facilities, they estinate that 74 percent of visitors at off-beach facilities will travel to the beach and park their vehicles there, during mid-day peak weekend conditions. We will adopt a conservative factor of 50 percent (i.e., one-half of tourists lodging at inland facilities will drive to the beach on a sunny day).
1 See the IEC report prepared by M. Faltman and referenced in Its 14, Appendix E; also see related text of Its 14. 2-8 Rev. 2
r ?
!bte that the NRC estirates asst =e 2.5 vehicles per dwelling, a figum
'attich we confirmed with an onsite survey. The results are shown in Figure 2-5.
( : 8 j CWmicht Accorrodations Again, the vehicles associated with those hotels, notels and guest houses located on the beach area have already been counted. We must also consider vehicles associated with such accomodations which are located off the beach. The need to avoid double-counting for these vehicles leads to consideration of the followings o Many patrons of overnight accamodations do not arrive at the facility until late afternoon or early evening, af ter the beach population has dropped fran its peak content, o Many patrons also leave the area in the early norning before peak r conditions occur on the beaches. 73 ( ) o other patrons stay for several days. Of these w/ Sme depirt the facility to go to the beach or scme other attraction.
- The rtrainder stay at the facility to swun in the pool or walk in the area.
o We number of cars per unit for off-beach notel/ hotel acccxmodations may be less than one because A family, or friends, travelling in one car nay occupy two units.
- Travelers on one charter bus will occupy nany units. ,r3 h
v' 2-9 Rev. 2
In any event, w seek an estimte of the number of these vehicles wnich are within the EPZ at the time the beach is nest crowded, but not at the beacn. We will accept, as a basis, the IRC count of overnight acecrncdation O units, as shoaTi in Figure 2-6. Based on discussions with nanagers of tourist facilities, we estimte that about 50 percent cf the vehicles servicing these units renain within the EPZ, but not at the beach when peak conditions prevail them. These discussions also revealed that several of the largest hotels set aside blocks of recrns on the weekend for guests who arrive by tour bus, at the rate of about 20 units for one tour bas. Estinates of guests who utilize nere than one unit per car, range frun 5 percent to 40 percent. On the basis of this infornation, we estinate that approximtely 0.85 vehicle per unit, is a masonable epation. The results of an analysis to estimte off-beach vehicles at mid day who remin within the EPZ are shown in Figure 2-7. Campamunds
'Ihe estimte of the number of vehicles at campgrounds within the EPZ is O
developed in a ranner which is similar to that for seasonal residents. The primry diffennee is that 2.5 vehicles are assumed for each seasonal dwelling while camppuund capacity is expressed in terms of sites, where one vehicle per site is standard. We egain accept the IEC data, as shown in Figure 2-8, excit. ding, as ' before, the vehicle spaces which were already included in our beach are'a count. In addressing the issue of double-counting, the considerations are essentially the same as noted earlier for the overnight accumodations. Based on discussions, campground operators estimate that approxistely 75 percent of campground sites are unoccupied by a vehicle during the day when the beach exhibits peak occupancy. Most of these vehicles are driven to the beach areas, with the ru minder leaving the area. As a result, the number of 2-10 Rev. 2 a
additional vehicles, nct at the beach, but runining in t.he area and :sst be considered, is shown in Figure 2-9. ( ) l l
~'
Seab m k Greyhound Park This park, which is located a little over 2 miles west of the Station, has a parking lot with capacity for about 3,100 vehicles, according to the lac report. We seek an estimate of the maximum number of parked vehicles during the wekend mid-day, when the beach is experiencing peak attendance. m ose vehicles belonging to pemanent residents must be excluded since t. hey are counted elsewhem. Based on the information available and dimet observation, we have estimated a figure of 1,500 vehicles at mid-day. !bte that this estimate of 1,500 vehicles excludes those that have already been counted. mat is, we assum that these visitors are all day-trippers. Night-tire attencanco can be double this figure, but would include nany tourists and residents who have already been counted. Parkinc at Retail Establishmnts f') We IRC report presents an estimate of vehicles parked in late servicing 1
'd- retail establishments, e.g., shopping centers, restaurants, large stores, municipal lots, etc. This estimate, shcun in Figure 2-10, is prunised on the assumption of 100 percent occupancy. Se applicant indicated that scme 40 percent of the spaces are filled at maximum periods during the sunner.
I Several factors should be considered: i o Do the " maximum periods" occur concurrently with the peak periods of beach attendance? o What percentage of parked vehicles belong to pemsnent residents? We have not been able to acquire data to respond to these questions; therefore, we will make no deductions to account for the possi.bility that there are different peak pericxis for shopping and for beach traffic. On the other hand, it is not reasonable to assume that all lots servicing retail g U 2-11 Rev. 2 L
E
'r establishnents are filled to capscity on a day when tto mathtr Ottrtets peoplo
[ i to the beach area. Moption of the estirate of 40 percent occupancy appears to be prudent, . in the absence of other m1pirical evidence. .This estinate is shcun in Figuru 2-11. Emolos~nent
'Ihis subject is treated in greater detail in Section 5.
Seabrook Station Dnployment at Seabrook Station will probably stabilize in the area of 300-400 after construction is cernpleted. On this basis, w estinate 500 vehicles there, to account for any centractor and visitor vnhicles, in addition to ecrmuter vehicles. Medical-Related racilities he tac report presents estinates of the population of facilities such as hospitals, nursing and retirurent hmes and other health-related facilities. See Figure 2-12. he number of vehicles associated with this estinate depends on the patiento' state of health. Buses can transport up to 40 people; vans, up to 12 1 people; ambulances, up to 2 people (patients). Once again, the prospect of double-counting is present. The population of nursing and retirement hcznes is included in the resident population. Thus, the vehicle estinates for this group have already been determined on the basis of 2.6 persons per vehicle. Since nany residents can be transported in buses (up to 40 persons) wttile others in ambulances (1 or 2 persons), it is reasonable to state that these people are already accounted for, in terms of the resident vehicle l count. Total Nrtand in Mdition to Perranent Population i The total number of vehicles servicing tourists, which are off the beach l l and are in addition to those servicing pernanent residents, is obtained by ] 1 2-12 Rev. 2 a
l sumung the entries in Figures 2-5, 2-7, 2-3, and 2-11, then adding those at Seabrock Park. Sese totals are shown in Appendix M.
,x theertainties Every plan wttich forecasts events which can take place, definitionally involves scme uncertainties. Such uncertainties, do not cuasuaise the effmiveness of a plan if they are accounted for in a reasonable nanner.
We statistics derived by the IRC and cited in the prior subsections Am the outccme of a painstaking effort by 1EM Associates. These results were then reviewed and refined by the !EC. Finally, additional data obtained by KLD addressed the issue of double-counti.ng wttich did not receive attention previously. W e tac data did not extend beyond the 10-mile radius to the EPZ boundary. lWe have called the larger facilities and estimate 1,000 additional tourist l vehicles nay be stored there outside the 10-mile boundaxy, but within the EPZ.
^]
We tcwns of Brentwood, Greenland, Kingston and Newfields also have large areas within the EPZ but outside the 10-mile boundary. Se fl.rst 3 have campgrounds but no hotels; w obtained the necessary inforration frta the respective town g:reernnents. There will be vehicles travelling through the EPZ (external-external trips) at the time of the accident. It is reasonable to expect that, at the time evacuation gets under way, these through travellers will also be evacuating since l they are already in their cars. These through vehicles are assuned to travel on
] interstate routes I-95 and I-495 which are the prinary routes through the EPZ.
l Observation of these highways showed that the level of service (IDS) did not-l l exceed LOS B or C. These levels of service correspond to a range of 2,990 to l 6,900 vehicles based on the total lane miles within the EPZ. . l For calculation of the LTEs approxirately 3,000 vehicles were initiaHy l l placed upon the highway links. Then for midwek/ midday scenarios the origin l l nodes wre prtgramed to generate 4,400 additional through vehicles during the q d 2-13 Rev. 2 l l i
- - - - . ~.
)
i
- l first hour and 2,200 vehicles during the second hour after the order to evacuate.
lz For weekend and evening scenarioc 2,200 and 1,100 vehicles were used for the
~
i
. l ' first and second hour respect.ively. -
P .f : 2-14 Rev. 2
.re TABLP. 2-1 ESTD'ATED VEHICLE POPUIATION - PERVRJDR RESICDRS
) Proj. Est.
Est. Population Groath Pop.- Vehicles Massachusetts 'Ibwn Clerks:1985 Rate ! ret) (1986) (1986) Anesbury 14,056 1.44 14,258 5,484 Merrimac 4,364 1.28 4,420 1,700 Newbury 5,423 1.04 5,479 2,107 Newburyport 16,300 0.70 16,414 6,313 Salisbury 6,645 1.23 6,726 2,587 l West Newbury 3,260 1.10 3,296 1,268 I New Hanoshire ; Brentwood 2,000 1.94 2,039 784- l l l E. Kingston 1,250 0.96 1,262 485 j Exeter 11,600 1.50 11,744 4,517 Greenland 2,200 1.15 2,225 856 l Hampton 13,000 1.80 13,234 5,090 I Hampton Falls 1,450 1.65 1,474 567 I u (3 Kensington 1,350 2.57 1,385 533 Kingston- 4,890 3.93 5,085 1,956 New Castle 625 -0.62 621 239 l l Newfields 850 2.11 868 334 ! l 3,625 -3,744 Newton 3.27 1,440 North Hampton 3,600 1.05 3,638 1,399 i Portsnouth 26,300 2.21 26,881 10,339 l L Rye 5,000 1.98 5,099 1,961 l l- Seabrook 8,000 1.97 8,158 3,138 South Hampton 700 -0.19 699 269 I Stratham 3,300 4.39 3,445 1,325 Totals: 139,788 (Avg) 1.72 142,194 54,691 l rorE Ccmpounded annual rates were calculated using State data for the years 1980 - and 1985. 2-15 Rev. 2
;
, J
t TABLE 2-2 ESTIFATES OF 1990 EPZ POPUIATION
'l i. Estinates of Pemanent Population in Massachusetts and Projection to 1990 Estinate MISER Projected Ratio, 1990:
Ccrrnunity of 1986 Population 1990 Population 1986 Proi. Attesbury 14,258 14,717 1.032 Merrinac 4,420 4,971 1.125 Newbury 5,479 5,706 1.041 1%rt 16,414 16,816 1.024 Salisbury 6,726 7,960 1.183 West Newbury 3,226 3.413 1.035 50,593 53,583 1.059 tore Overall annual growth rate is 1.44 percent projected to 1990 frun 1986. Estinates of Pernanent Population in New Hampshire and Projections to 1990
% Annual Projected j Population Estinates Population Ratio, 1990: 1986 Growth Rate q Ccmnunity 1986 1987 1988 1986-1988 1990 Proi. l Brentwcod 2382 2301 2270 -2.4 2163 1.061 East Kingston 1326 1347 1378 1.9 1432 1.135 Exeter 11846 12030 -12473 2.6 13133 1.118 Greenland 2234 2231 2325* 2.0 2420 1.088 Hampton 12077 12114 12292 0.9 12511 0.945 Hampton Falls 1469 1529 1509* 1.4 1550 1.052 Kensington 1327 1476* 1492* .6.0 1678 1.212 Kingston 5065 4969* 5068* 0.0 5071 0.997 New Castle 933 714* 727* 1.8** 740 1.192 Newfields 846 879 848* 0.1 850 0.979 Newton- 3471 3486* 3441* -0.4 3411 0.911 North Hampton 3635 3799* 3790* 2.1 3952 1.086 Portsnouth 27295 29014 26887 -0.8 26485 0.985 Rye 4843 4954 5101 2.6 5373 1.054 Seabrook 6695 6818 6988 2.2 7294 0.894 South Hampton 655 700 706 3.8 761 1.089 Stratham 3520 3531 4453 12.5 5633 1.635 l 89400** 91748 1.3 94457 1.031***
Represents change in nethodology for deternuning population figures. Numbers beccme available July 1st of each year.
.Used the 1987 estinate for New Castle instead of the 1986 estimate
*** 94,457 / 91,601 = 1.031 where 91,601 is the estimate l b) 2-16 Rev. 2
i TABLE 2-3 CTPARISONS OF BEACH AREA VFMICLE 4 j- CAPACITIES AND COU!TTS (Refer to Appendix E for details) 1.- = Dufresne-Henry Report (Itan 3, App. E): o Capacity of all parking areas in Hampton Beach,-including on-street: 4,034 cars campared with o KLD estinate of parking capcity, including driveways, backyards, etc.: 7,770 cars
- 2. The SNHRPC Report (Item 6, App. E):
o Count of parked cars on a crowded weekend, on NH beaches: 12,650 cars
.(~Nr
\# -
o KLD estinate of parking capacity in NH: 14,580 cars i l l l 3. The IM4 Report (Item 13, App. E): o Daily transient (i.e., seasonal, overnight, daily) vehicles on weekend: 17,147 cars o KLD estinated capacity: 25,470 cars
- 4. 'lhe NRC Reports (Iten 14, App. E):
o Estimates of beach area parking during peak conditions, within the EPZ: 19,700 cars o KLD estimated capacity: 25,470 cars
- j
, 2-17 Rev. 2
p I. TABLE 2-3 COMPARISONS OF BEACH AREA VEHICLES CAPACITIES AND COU!TPS (cont. )
- 5. We Costello, et al. , Report (Itm 16, App. E):
This report does not break out the estimte of beach area traffic, explicitly, so no ccrnparison is possible.
- 6. ne HMM " Beach" Report (Itern 10, App. E):
Location Parking Capacity Estin tes HMM KLD Salisbury ~aeach 6367 8060 Seabrook Beach 1530 2650 Hampton Beach 7426 7770 i
! brth Beach 1420 1300 Plaice Cove, etc. 539 600 Rye, Bass, Jenness 656 1440 l7. Aerial Beach Survey on July 18, 1987 (Item 20, Appendix E) l l Iocation Parked Vehicles l Vehicles in Transit l
l a. Plum Island 3,095 103 l (Ipswich, Rowley, l th bury, i W port) l b. Salisbury 6,119 153 l c. Seabrook 3,040 123 l d. Hampton 13,257 750 l e. Ibrth Hampton 308 109 l f. Rye 3,474 202
'1 URAL 29,293 + 1,440 = 30,733 2-18 Rev. 2 l
l
TABLE 2-4
. HOURLY TPAFFIC VOLlMES DTTERUG MD EXITUG
() ~ ~ME' SEABROOK A!O HA.vPION BEACH AREA CN JUIX 16, 1983 Entering Exiting tet Aggregate Time vehicles vehicles Influx Influx , ? 12-1 AM 664~ 1,469 -805 , 1-2 520 909 -389 2-3 245 336 -91 3-4' 153 164 -11 4-5 133 105 28 28 5-6 273 219 54' 82 7- 540 428 112 194 7-8 1,022 700 322 516 8-9 2,021 1,286 735 1251 9-10 2,773 1,733 1040 2291 10-11 2,702 1720 982 3273 l 11-12 2,622 1528 1094 4367 l 12-1 IM 2,529 1648 881 5248 1-2 2,312 1886 426 5674 2-3 2,217 2,865 -648 5026 3-4 1,757 2766 -1009 4017 4-5 1,955 2570 -615 3402 5-6 1,957 2655 -698 2704 fN 6-7 2,244 2417 -173 2531 () 7 8-9 2,563 2,578 2,271 2,214 292 364 2823 3187 9-10 2,207 1,964 243 3430 10-11 1,638 1,881 -243 3187 11-12 _1,272 1.885 -613 2574
'1UrALS 38,897 37,619 tore (1) Entering traffic volumes are sum of eastbound traffic along Route 51 west of Ashworth Avenue, southbound traffic on Route 1A north of Route 51, Route 1A at Route 286.
(2) Exiting traffic volumes are at the same locations but in opposite directions.
.O 'J-2-19 Rev. 2
~
r ;
} - ' %f FIGURE 2-1 DISIRIIUPIONS OF EIAPSED TIME FIR VARIOUS IRE-EVACUATION ACTIVITIES Cumulative Percentage.
100 - p g ~ g= - q
-Wf.;tn - -
-- - ~-
y ,..-u~~** ,,,,... 90 .P .x'
,o i
,-n*..m-
? .x' n0 ,- ,"
e I g
- 70 . ,'
i e o . 4 60 ! , I l 50 l , e t
,a 40 l ,'
* - .- : Commuter Travel Time
< 10 .I
- x---x---x Packing to I. cave llome t
j n--o---o Preparing to I. cave work [ 1 20 - t l t ,' [ 10 , i 0 0.5 I '. 0 1.5 '2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
)
i Elapsed Time, liours 1 2-20 Hev. 2 i i' {
r, q 1: . ' \5 ;
- q. f ' *-
$ ), [ -4"-
;;
+
fta 7 ( FIGURE 2-2: !
>. ' .f gy. , > ;2 ;: .
! HOUSEHOID SIZE WPMIN SEABROOK STATION EPZ1 ,
J 4>
;
. yw 't fb;k f
i
~. '
- %< / .
7 " > "
\
'e 4
E,
- (35). l.
y ; < > 2
+
m . g $
.I ;,
f J(19) ' [19)- .i f a
- s f14) s !
-~ (8)- i
, .6 r
fS). '! c . ; f, 3; 1 .1 .2- 3- 4 5 .6+'- . , e 3 N . ,
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Number of Persons per Household , t Average Household Size: 2,87 't , ( ) = Percent of Total Households , [ t f i
=( .
r l e 4
.E,
? r
?
- i 9
2-21 Rev. 2 i o . ,
-:q lb d
jr_ l y-e,-- 1 - ,
.--..-a. . . . . _ _ . , _ . . , c .. , , , ... .. , , _ , . _ _ , , . _ _ , , , _ _ , _ _ , _ _ , , _ _ _ _ _ _ _ , , _ , _ , , ,j
FIGURE 2-3 ,
.("3 AUIO GNERSHIP OF HOUSEHOIDS WITHIN SFABROOK t !
x_/. STATION EPZ Percents in (-) I'79) (55) i l'35) ,
'13)
I' 7 ) J6) (1) f2) I' 2 ) 0 l' 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 3 4+ Cars Available Cars Available ' One-Person Household Two-Person Household f54) f52) fb t ) fl9)- fl9) J19) (8) (17) (12) 0 1 2. 3- 4+ 0 1 2 3 4+ Cars Available Cars Available
'Ihree-Person Households Four-Person Households f51)
(25) v28) (27) (23) (14) (22) (10) 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 3 4+ Cars Available Cars Available Five-Person Households Six Plus-Person Household 2-22 Rev. 2
r- .; FIGURE 7-4 WEEKEND VEHICLE DFyR O s ()_ (NRC Estbrate: Faltmani C~D 3 N M 1
# NNW NNE 30 28 g de 28 43 NW 20 NE 10 30 38 3a 75 33 33 60 75 95 3g gg O 20 la 00 C WNW :3 3 10 30 ENE as 43 8 18 18 70 615 38 0 g
33 20 20 30 1360 e 80 20 25 203 e 5 3 13 0 13e 13 le .5' 1378 3 4195 r**n W dB ' dB 39 38 20- 28 la B 25 '. 663 t c e 0 0 0 0 0 a E E 25 / 9es k 39 33 43 0 } 10 10 13 0 0 38 15 550 0 7- ,, 210 w/~j 13 5 18 45 0 0 13 0 25 93 20 643 0 0 33 g 25 35 WSW 18 755 0 ESE g g 3 80 e 18e e 3 0 33
, 3 188 700 e i' 515 3 49 7pg c g E 33 23 0 g m 23 a SSW 33 SSE e S E
@ N eea 2 0 0 0 W3 O IE e e 3 0 e eO S
DETAll 0F 1 MILE R]NG f
'> 2-23 Rev. 2
7':' E l 1 I FIGURE 2-5
~~ x WEINND VEHICLE DEMAND, Ilm
-; t
(_f (NRC Estimate Excludim Vehicles at the Beach) , C [HD N CCZ3 NNW q NNE 14 24 14 2} I NW 10 gg I 19 5 10 0 37 19 15 0 4 37 29 14 0 F 10 g g m WNW 5 I ENE g 2# 14 0 21 q q 25 0 19 e 16 le 3g 15 4g 0 e 14 0 g g 16 6 0 g 1 P OW :4 24 19 19 10 id 5 4 ( 12 2 io e o e 0 e 2 2 E O 17 / 0 t 39 16 21 0 A 5 5 g4 0 19 7 e 0 n , i I 6 2 22 IO7 0 0
%J 6 45 e e 0
g 10 q 12 0 WSW 12 17 y
'O g
e ESE a Q 1 94 O . e 1 16 0 1 94 e e 257 1 24 - e e 3 g-is u a l m u a 16 SSE SSW S CUD l CID l [ED N g 000 0 0 0 e lE W0 - O 2 U eg e S \ (D DETAll 0F
'd-2-24 1 MILE RING R 2
F c FIGURE-2-6
.f~ RO NS IN YEARLY AND SEASONAL
/ i
. NRIGFfP LNWS (NRC Estimate Kalt2nani t
l CE] N A
-1 1 NNW NM5 e
0 2 g e 21
'. E NE i E
3 55 q O 26 'j 55 0 e de I 35 0 e 72 ) e 107 0 N l WNW e e f e o ENE .
- . ', 0 23 e !
L 0 0 0 0 34 0 { 0 0 8 g 112 37 246 g I 8 0 g 36 0 25 f 0 e e 789 12 l 0 .330 sW i e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 136 447 ' 0 e o e o e e e E A l 46 0 { eg e. "e ee e'
;
\-) g 0
0 g 0 36 g c e g 0 0 g
^
0 e . 0 88 0 135 0 e 8 5 e 0
! WSW 0 235 ESE m GD e 181 e e
11 e o e c a e , 25 e c 0 3 *- 5 SE g l . . . e C13 e e 8 1 SSW SSE GD S rrm l 20 N 0 ee e , 0 1 0 0 WD a 'E 2 e
- E cee S
( DETAIL OF (/ 2-25 1 MILE R]NG Rev. 2 1
r FIGURE 2-7 ' VERINE ASSOCIATED M NY W
' 'Y
;
vf SN OVERNIGTP ACCOHODATIONS (Estintes Exclude Vehicles at the Beachi CZ'O CD N CED NNW 0 NNE 0 e Q 0 m 1 NW s e
; 0 NE e 23 l- e e 22 0 e e i Id e e c 0 D
2 WNW 0 45 0 0 C e e e ENE - O " g e e e e 0 g 0 0 47 g 0 11 0 0 0 e e!! 0 '12 o g 0 g CCJ W 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 e {57 e i0 0 0 l 19 0 0 0 0 0 E CD 0 0 0 16 e
/^\ 0 e 00 g 0
0
/ 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 e 37 0 0 0 e 2 0 WSW D g O 0
ESE E. 0 7s e e w 0 5 0 g 0 0 0
\. 0 0 a 12 g O g S 0 g SE CD '
g 0 ClQ 0 0 SSW 0 SSE CID S CZ'] N g 00 0 0 e W 0 e.lE l 0 0 0 0 0 e0 l S
,[D DETAIL OF 1 MILE RING
( ,/ 2-26 **2
h FIGURE 2-8
. VEHICLES AT CAMPGROUNDS ;/ \
(_,1 (NRC Estimate: Kaltm jn C3D
-Q N [I]
NNW g NNE D 0 0 [UUU 0 e E NW 0 NE O e o 0 0 0 0 0 0 I'0 148 g g 0 C 0 0 0 Q WNW c 0 0 g ENE D 0 0 0 0 0 g 550 0 g 0 9 g 0 g 350 a 193 g 0 0 0 0 g 0 0 00 g j 0 0 0 0 f a e CZ] W D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 '0 0 0 0 0 0 e E ['Z]
; a a 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 75 0 0 0
/^'i
'j 514 0 0 00 g a g 0
g o 0 0 0 0 0 0 WSW O O O ESE m l C2] a 80 g 0 0 970 0 g 0 0 0 g 0 0 4
- 0 S 0 g SE D D
[Z] g CZ'] a D SSW 0 SSE CIZ] 6 E2] [I!2] N OO O O O O 0\ W0 0 IE O 2 0 2 0 g0 S
, /
G ., DETAIL OF
- 1 MILE R]NG
'- - 2-27 Rev. 2
p i FIGURE ')~9
.(, VEHICLES AT CAMPGROUNDS 4 'J ..
IEstinetes Exclude Vehicles at the Beechi l [UD Q N O NNW 0 NNE
.t i
0 0 e G ! e NW 0 0
)
0 NE l e 0 1 0 0 0 e l
/e 0 ~
37 d7 g- g e WNW U 0 0 0 0 3 e g ENE O 137 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 g e 87 / g o e 1 t 0 0 0 e 00 0 0 0 0 0 , I i WW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O e > ! O lo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 E CZ] O O i 0 0 e e e 0
}
0 a 0 se 0 0 0 1' ! f~' . g C e 2a g 0 g 0 L/ e 128 g g g g e
;
0 WSW 0 0 0 Q 0 20 0 0 ESE m 0 0 l 0 0 0 0 0 g 0 0 S 0 0 0 i g SE ; m e n O l 0 ' SSW e SSE 4 Q S Q < r- r1 N 0OO O O Wi 0 0 IE e 0 0 e 0 e0
, S
,os DETAIL OF 1 MILE RING b 2-28 Rw. 2 l
l-l
m FIGURE 2-10 !
~
()
-l ,
PARKI1G IUP CAPACITY (VEHIN FR) AIOG U.S. HIGHWAY 1 l 1 1 E Q N Q NNW g NNE O a g 0 g 0 NE 2 - g g 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 148 0 0 0 WNW 0 792 0 C a a ENE g a g O 0 O O O e e 0 0 0 0 0 0 g ggg g g 0 0 55 g 0 d3
'd 58 0 2 f a 0 g 0 0 EW g 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 93 i0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 E m 37 0 3
7 0 0
.k 0 0 000 0 0
[
~
0 0 a 0 0
' 0 NJ ,e a g g e e 1 75 .0 8 0 0 I WSW 0 0 ESE m Q 0 17 0 5
0 0 0 w \0 0 0 0 530 0 0 , 5 SE O 0
- j. A g i, i 0 .
O 0 SSE SSW 3 w [ED GED N 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 W 10 0 'E O O 2 0 0 g 0 S l' i DETAIL OF (_,/ 1 MILE R]NG 2-29 Rev. 2
;
FIGRE 2-11
,_, PARKUG IUP CAPACITY (VMICLE DD%ND) ON U.S. HIGHWAY 1 s (Estimates based on 40 percent occupancy) t=o N O Q
NNE NNW g 0 a g-2 CI:] O a NE NV O O O O O
- 8 '8 O
O 59 g 8 a _ 0 g 328 ENE C www 8 0 0 0 O O O O g O O 0 44 0 0 0 g g g 0 0 3 q 23 g 62 0 g 0 0 17 0 g g 0 0 0 0 E M y g g g g g 2 0 37 0 0 l0 0 0 g 0 14 * % 0 0 0 e 3 390 000 0 0 0 0 0 3 g 0 g g
't
) g 0 0 g g '
g N/ 0 8 g 20 e ESE w D 0 WSW 0 Q 20 0 0 0 tes 0 0 0 0 2:2 g l 1 0 SE 0 0 0 i S 0 0 Q O. o O 3 y 0 SSE ggy S Q g CED N e0 0 0 3 W( e 0 )E 2 0 2 0 0 eO S DET AIL OF 1 MILE RING l i V 2-30 h.2
n, l FIGURE 2-12
.;
- CAPACITY OF MEDICAL-REIATED FACILITIES
~{ .
ss-d C CI"3 N C"Z3 NNW 0 NNE O 3 g 0 0 NW D NE 0 0 0 O g 0 0 0 0 753 g 0 fe 0 0 0 0 WNW / ENE 0 0 0 D 0 0 f :80 0 0 0 0 0 0 g 3 f =5 0
- 0 0 f
0-
, 0 0/0 0 ,
0 f , mW D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (0 . 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 E ' ' 1 0 0 i 0 0 0
/N-I
; O 0
O g g C O O
%/ 164 g g 0 g
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 l 0 WSW 0 439 152 0 0 ESE m i W 0 0 0 [ i 0 0
=26 c \0 0 0
0 l
O ,
/ t00 ,
1 S sg g rr"n 0 w 0 0 0 SSE-l SSW S [][3 CZD E N 000 0 0 0 0 e J !E gi l e a 0 0 ae O i S CETML OF i rx 6 i MILE RING
\_) 2-31 Rev. 2
o D:HIBIT 2-1 ESTD% TION OF PERSCNS PER VEHICLE mR THE EVACIATION
/m OF PERMANERP RESIDDTPS -
)
- 1. Asstme: I l
(a) All households with 4 or fewer persons will ride in one car, if they have a car available. (b) All households with 5 or more persons and with 2 or more cars, will ride in 2 cars. 'Ihe remainder will ride in one car, if available. H.H. Size No. of H.H. No. of Cars Used Persons / Car 1 187 0.87 x 187 = 163 1 2 450 0.98 x 450 = 441 2 3 246 246 3 4 247 247 4 5 106 (2x0.86+0.14)106 = 19 2.79 (9 L/ 6+ 64 (2x0.78+0.22)64'= 114 4.04**
'ICIAIS: 1300 1401 2.68 avg.
- 2. Assume (a) All households with 3 or fewer persons will ride in one car if available.
(b) Half of all households with 4 persons and two or more cars will take two cars; the others will take 1 car. (c) All households with 5 or nere persons with 2 or nere cars will take 2 cars. The remainder will take one car. i
... based on an avg. H.H. size of 7.2 persons.
( 2-32 Rev. 2 l
EKHIBIT 2-1 y ESTIFATIOJ OF PERSCNS PER VEHIr'tE KR THE EVACLRTIO1 l OF PERMANE!fr RESIDDTPS (clxit. )- . H.H. Size No. of H.H. No. of Cars Used Persons / Car , l I 1 187 0.87 x 187 = 163 1 ] 2 450 0.98 x 450 = 441 2 l 3 246 246 3 l l 4- 247 (1/2x0.81x2+0.595)247=347 2.95 5 106 (2x0.86+0.14)106 = 19 2.79 6+ G4 (2x0.78+0.22)64 = 114 4.04* -l 1 l 'IUIAIS: 1300 1501 2.51 avg. ] 1 Conclusions l 1 l For estimating the vehicle population, we will enploy the value of 15 _ l persons per vehicle, as an average. ' O 1 l l t i
. . . based on an avg. H.H. size of 7.2 persons.
2-33 Rev. 2
- 3. ESTIMATION OF HIGMY CAPACI"Y The ability of the road network to acwwdate deand is a mjor factor in detentu.ning how rapidly an evacuation can be coupleted. It is, therefore, necessary to know the capacity of the available roadways.
In general, the capacity of a facility is defined as the mv4=n hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point or unifom section of a lane of roadway during a given tim period under prevailing roadway, traffic and control conditions. (Frcxn the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual.) In discussing capacity, different cperating conditions have been assigned alphabetical designations, A through F, to generally reflect varying traffic operational characteristics. These designations have been temed "Isvels of Service." For example, level A connotes free-flow and high-speed operating conditions; Iavel F represents a forced flow condition. Isvel E describes traffic operating at capacity. Because of the effect of weather on the capacity of a roadway, it is necessary to adjust capacity figures to represent estimated road conditions during inc1 ment weather. Based on limited spirical data, weather conditions such as heavy rain reduce the values of capacity for highweys by approximately 20 percent. For inclment weather conditions during the winter months, w have estimated capacity reductions of approximately 25 percent relative to nomal weather conditions. We also reduce free flow speeds for inclement weather conditions: 20 percent for rain, 25 percent for snow. In the congested traffic environment which is often characteristic of an evacuation scenario, travel time on a roadway section is, to a large extent, determined by the capacity of that section. For that reason, estimates of roadway capacity must be determined with great care. Because of its importance, a brief discussion of the major factors which influence capacity, is presented in this section. 3-1 Rev. 2
+- ,
P
'Ihe major factors which control capacity. includes o On the approach to intersections -
- Saturation queue discharge headways
- Turning novemnts
- Cmpeting traffic streams
- Control policy o Along_ sections of roadway Roadway geometrics j' -- Traffic composition ,
l 4 o General considerations
- Weather conditions Pav eent conditions Li.ghting . ,
Capacity Estimations on Aporeaches to Intersections At-grade intersections are apt to becme the _ first bottleneck locations under heavy traffic volume conditions. mis characteristic reflects the need to allocate access time to the respective cmpet.ing traffic streams by exerting sme t form of control. During evacuation, however, control at critical-intersections, will often be provided by traffic control personnel assigned _for that purpose, whose directions may supercede traffic control devices. he per-lane capacity of an approach to an intersection can be expressed in the following fom: r- 1 3600 l(G-L) l 3600 Pm (1)
= C =
Ocap,m hm l l hm L_ _J m 3-2 Rev. 2
;
I I
-w- 3-
- _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . e -- -
m ___ + wr
T where O Ocap,m _= capacity of traffic on an approach, which execute movment, m, upon entering the intersect 1an; vehicles per hour (vph) l-hm = Mean queue discharge headway of vehicles on an approach, which are executing novament, m; seconds per vehicle Gm = 2e mean duration of GREEN time servicing vehicles on an approach, which are executing novament, m, for each control cycle; seconds L = te maan " lost tine" for each control cycle; seconds C = 2e mean duration of each control cycle; seconds Pm " De F.vru.i.ian of time allocated for vehicles executing novment, m, fra an approach. mis value is specified as part of the control treatment. D
'G m = The movement executed by vehicles after they enter the intersection: through, left-turn, right-turn, diagonal.
We turn-movment-specific mean discharge headway hm, depends in a cmplex way upon many factors: roadway geametrics', turn piiu.mii. ages, the extent of conflicting traffic streams, the control treatment, and others. A primary factor is the value of " saturation queue discharge headway", hsat, which applies to through vehicles which are not (WM by other conflicting traffic streams. mis value, itself, depends upon many factors including notorist behavior, but is relatively straightforward to detemine spirically in the field. Formally, we can write, hm
- fm (hsat, F 1 , F 2, ...)
where:- 3-3 Rev. 2 (J
hsat- = Saturation- discharge headway for through vehicles; seconds per vehicle F,F2 1 = Se various known factors influencing hm fm ( . ) = Cmiplex function relating hm to the known (or estimated) values of l hsat, F1, F2 W e estimation of hm for specified values of hsat, 1F , F2 , ... is undertaken by a mathmatical nodel* which has been swuui d into the Traffic Assignment and Traffic Simulation software of the IDYNEV Syste. The resulting values for hm always satisfy the conditions hm 2 hsat 4 2at is, the turn-movement-specific discharge headways are always more than, or equal to, the saturation discharge headway for through vehicles. It is seen that, given the ability to determine hm frm hsat, the determination of capacity of the approaches to intersectlans depends upon obtaining estimates of hsat. Such estimates were obtained empirically at representative intersections throughout the EPZ. In all cases, the values of hsat used in developing the evacuation plan represent conservative estimates ** based on this spirical data. Specifically, observed values for hsat ranged frm 2.1 to 2.4- sec/veh; the higher (more conservative) figure was adopted to account for any uncertainty in driver-responses at intersections. 1 1
*Lieberman, E., " Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an
" Service Rates of Plxed Traffic on 1- Intersection", McShane, W. & Lieberman, E.,
the far Inft Lane of an Approach." Both papers appear in Transportation Research Record 772, 1980. l
** Interestingly, studies have shown that hsat decreases (i.e., capacity increases) during periods of congestion, relative to that during off-peak traf#ic conditions. This behavior reflects the fact that notorists are more attentive and are highly notivated to reduce their travel time, during congested corritions. Our estimates do not include this beneficial effect.
3-4 Rev. 2
I j?f
'Ib sumnarize the foregoing discussion: ,
=!,,I h V o We saturation queue discharge headways, hsat, for through vehicles can be quantified by enpirical observation '
o The turn-ncvanent-specific headways, hm, are then calculated, talcing into , account the effects of turn novanent percentages, llak gectnetry and other factors o With the control treaunent prescribed as part of the evacuation plan, the value of Pm may be defined o The per-lane capacity for each turn novement is then formed frtrn equation (1). Capacity Estimation Alona Sections of Michway he capacity of highway sections -- as distinct frczn approaches to r~'N intersections -- is a function of roadway geanetrics, traffic ccznposition (e.g. , U percent heavy trucks and buses in the traffic stream) and, of course, notorist behavior. 'Ihere is a fundanental relationship which relates service volune (i.e., the number of vehicles which can pass a point in a given time period) to traffic density. Figure 3-1 describes this relationship. As indicated there, the service volume increases as density increases, until the service volume attains its naximum value, EV , which is the capacity of the highway section. Note that as density increases beyond this " critical" value, the rate at which traffic can be serviced (i.e. , the service volume) declines below capacity. Therefore, in order to realistically represent traffic performance during congested conditions (i.e., when density exceeds the
" critical" value), it is necessary to estimate the service volume, Vp, under congested conditions. This value, Vp, which is less than capacity, Vg, should be used for developing the evacuation plan and for estimating evacuation tines, whenever congested conditions prevail.
L 3-5 Rev. 2 \ (]
%.J
!l' me value of VF can be expressed as:
Vp =ReVE where: R = Reduction factor which is less than unity. l me 1985 Highmy Capacity Manual (IG) discusses the reduction in capacity l that can be experienced on freeways under Invel Of Service (IM) F conditions. l Observed capacity ranged fran 75% to 100% of "nomal" capacity. We therefore l apply a maan value of R = 0.85, approximately the average of the 0.75 to 1.00 range. It is important to mention that scne investigators, on analyzing data , collected on freemys, conclude that little or no reduction in capacity occurs even at Isvel of Service, F. While there is conflicting evidence on this subject, w will again adopt the conservative approach and use a lower value of capacity, as discussed above. l For calculation of the ETEs, the R = 0.85 capacity reduction factor m s also l applied to the estimates of n minal capacity of all at-grade roadm y sections or [ links, whenever congested conditions prevail. Ebr at-grade roadways, this l capacity reduction represents the potential for inefficient traffic operations ldue to a variety of factors which may prevail under emergency evacuation l conditions, including driver uncertainty and short tem disruptions in a lcongestedtrafficenvironment. he estimated value of capacity, V E, is based primarily upon the type of
, facility (e.g., controlled access such as I-95, uncontrolled access such as Route 101D) and on roadway geometrics. Clearly, a winding narrow road has significantly lower service volume than does the Exeter-Hampton Expressway.
Sections of roadway with poor gecnetrics are characterized by: l o Iower free-flow speeds than on highways with good ge m etrics. l l o Ianger headways separating moving vehicles. 3-6 Rev. 2
m The first factor increases travel time when conditions are undersaturated. a () We latter facter produces lower service volumes, thereby reducing capacity. ne procedure used here was to estimte "section" capacity, v ,s based on our observations travelling over each section of the evacuation network and by l reference to the Highway Capacity Manual. We then determined for each highway section, represented as a network link, whether its capacity would be limited by . I the "section-specific" service volume, VE or by the intersection-specific ' capacity, Ocap,m. For each link, we selected the lower value of capacity. General Considerations t Inclenent weather conditions (rain, fog, snow) and poor or ket pavemnt j s conditions reduce capacity by virtue of: ; 1 o Iower free-floa speeds reflecting greater caution on the part of ; motorists in an environment of decreased visibility. j m s ( ,/ o Ionger vehicle headways reflecting lower traction and/or more cautious i driver behavior. H l The decrease in service volume due to these factors can be estimated based l on either direct observation or by referencing other studies in the literature, i 1 Acolication to Seabrook EPZ l As part of the developnent of the Seahcook EPZ traffic network, an estimate l of roadway capcity is required. The source material for the capacity estimates i presented herein is contained in > 1985 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), Special Report 209 l Transportation Research Board National Research Council 1 Washingten, D.C. 1985 l p 3-7 Rev. 2 V 1 l l
t The highway. syst e in the Seabrook EPZ consists prinarily of three categories of roads .
~
.o Two-lane roads: local, State, thtional o Multi-lane Depressways c o Freeway ramps ,
Each of these classifications will be discussed.- ,
%e-Iane Roads na- -:;- ' ;;\ f ~_
Reft HCM Chapter 8 ,
$ ' t+ q
- j. , As a further aid to the estinate of roadway capacity,- we have adopted the - i o
f: .'following -four general types of rural roads: N $ ~1. "Iow" design roads - 10 ft. lanes, 1 ft. shoulders (e.g. , Breakfast m Hill Road)
- 2. " Medium" design roads - 11 ft. lanes, 2 ft. shoulders (e.g. , Routes 286, 1A N/S)
- 3. "Righ" design roads - 12.ft lanes, 4 ft. shoulders'(e.g., Route 1) 1
- 4. Ilmited access roads - 12 ft. lanes, 6 ft. shoulders (e.g., Exeter -
Hampton Expressway)
'Ihe ' relationship describing traffic operations on general terrain segments is as follows:
SFi = 2,800 x (v/c)i x fd X fw X fW where: 3-8 Rev. 2 i 1 l L,
SFt = total service flw rate in both dihons for prwailing roadway and traffic conditierz, for level of service i, in vph Lj)
;
(v/c)1 = ratio of ficw rate to ideal capacity for level of service i, obtained from im Tal le 8-1 fd = adjustment factor for directional distribution of traffic, obtained fmn im Table 8-4 fw = adjustment factor for narrw lanes and restricted shoulder width, obtained fmn im Table 8-5 fy = adjustment factor for the presence of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, which can be cmputed as outlined in the FG We have applied these procedures of the 1985 im to obtain estimates of the "section" capacities of two-lane roads within the EP2. An outline of these g w edures is present.ed below. !bte that capacity is defined as the service flow (N at invel of Service, IDS E. V l Dased on the field survey and on expected traffic cperations associated with l evacuation scenarics: o The two-lane roads within the EPZ are classified as " rolling terrain." o Percent no passing zones is approximately 60. o Directionality of traffic noving over tre-lane roads during evacuation i will approximate a " split" of 90 percent noving outbound; 10 percent l moving inbound, averaged over the duration of the evacuation. Ibte that I a moderate departure fmn this 90:10 directional split does not l materially influence roadway capacity. For exarple, an 80:20 directional l split reduces capacity only 1.6 percent. l l (3 3-9 Rev. 2 V l
o l 'o Traffic mix ist M trucks, 1% buses, 4% recreational vehicles during the i SGmer. l h l Cn this basis, the value of v/c of IDS E is 0.91 taken frun Table 8-1 of the HQ4. The directional split facter, fd is 0.75 frcrn Table 8-4 of the HC4. tese i facters apply to all four rural road types. Se road width factors, fw, are obtained frun Table 8-5 of the HC4: o ' h " design roads - 0.id (by interpolation) 1 o " Medium" design roads - 0.88 l o "High" design roads - 0.97 i o Limited access roads - 1.00 l
%e vehicle mix factor is based both on the percentages of heavy vehicles and on the Passenger Car Equivalent (PCE) value of each vehicle type. Since PCE I is related to vehicle performance, the PCE is lower on higher speed roads. For example, due to sluggish acceleration, a truck moving in local street traffic j; exhibits a higher PCE than the same truck does when it is on a freeway.
On thic basis, the following values were obtained: fy w 0.87 for roads of high, medium and low designs; , fy = 0.91 for limited-access roads he following table represents the two-way and one-way (directional) capacity estimates for the four romi types identified: l l 3-10 Rev. 2 , l l
2-way 1-way Equivalent
-m VE VE Headway
{' 'w/ Road 'P,Te IV/C) fa fu f97 Ivrh ) fsee) Iow design 0.91 0.75 0.78 0.87 1297 1167 3.1 7 Medium design 0.91 0.75 0.88 0.87 1463 1317 2.7 High design 0.91 0.75 0.97 0.87 1613 1452 2.5 Limited access 0.91 0.75 1.00 0.91 1739 1565 2.3
!OTE (1) me one-way capacities of roads for evacuating vehicles are -
calculated by multiplying the two-way values obtained frtn the HCM procedures, by the directional split, 0.9. n
\
C1 (2) These directional (i.e., one-way) estimates will be multiplied by the factor, R = 0.85, when the traffic is moving under congested conditions. We have obtained hourly traffic counts along several roads frtn the im Dor. Included is Route 51 in Hampton. We maximum recorded daily volumes on this road in the sumer of 1985 mre well above the estimate of 1739, calculated above. % us, these estimates of ca~pacity appear to be reasonable. Pr m ev Capacity mere are two freeways in the Seabrook EPZ; I-95 and I-495. A general relationship is used to campute the one-way freeway service flow at different Levels of Service: (3 3-11 Rev. 2
i SFi = ej x (v/c)i x N x fw xfgxfp , where: SFi = service floa rate for IDS i under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions fcr N lanes in one direction, in vph (v/c)1 = maxima voltme-to-capacity ratio for 10S 1 c3 = capacity undar ideal conditions for fremey element of design speed j; 2,000 pcphp1 for 60 mph and 70 mph freeway elements, 1,900 pcphp1 for 50 mph freeway elments; the value of cj is synonymus with the maximum service floa rate for IDS E f N = number of lanes in one direction of the freeway fw = factor to adjust for the effects of restricted lane widths and/or lateral clearances fg = factor to adjust for the effect of heavy vehicles (trucks, buses and recroational vehicles) in the traffic stream fp = factor to adjust for the effect of driver population Based on the field survey, the Interstate Highways exhibits > o Essantially level terrain o Six cr eight lanes o A traffic mix approximating: 1% trucks, 1% buses, 4% recreational vehicles during the sunner 3-12 Rev. 2 1
i ne (v/c) ratio at capacity flow is 1.0 frun Table 3-1 of the IG. We lane y width factor, fw, taken frun IG Table 3-12 = 1, for a facility with 12 ft. C lanes, 6 ft, shoulder, and a 6 or 8 lane facility. Se vehicle mix factor, f ty, is cutputed in a manner similar to that for the rural road segments. We value obtained is f in = 0.96. We final factor, f , pis designed to adjust the service flow to account for differing driver characteristics. Be suggested values (IG, Table 3-10) range frun 0.75 to 1.0 for weekday or camuter traffic. It is expected that during an evacuation, the nest experienced person in the group will drive. Further, it is assumad that virtually all drivers are familiar with the major roads in the Seabrook EPZ. W erefore, a factor fp = 0.90 was selected. On the basis of these facton , a freeway capacity VE= 1728 vph1 was selected.* Sams indication of this value may be obtained frun an analysis of Sunday traffic data on I-95, provided by tal Dor. me highest one-way daily volume in 1985 was recorded on Sunday, July 7ths () 79,119 vehicles. Unfortunately, we do not have hourly volumes. He can, however, empute the peak hourly flow based on the value of V E8 Peak Hour Volume = 1,728 vph x 4 lanes = 6,912 vph This value is only 8.74 percent of the recorded Apr. (Usually, peak hour volumes exceed 10 percent of the ADr.) Thus, even in the absence of hourly data, the estimate of VE appears to be realistic. Pmeway Ramos l l 2e ncminal capacities for ramps during undersaturatal flow conditions is l l estimated to he 1330 vphl. During congested conditions, the estimated capacity
*VE is synonynous with SF, as used in the IG.
3-13 Rev. 2 (]/ C
Pt T v'
;
j of freeway ranps is assumed to be 1130 vph1. mis is consistent with the ICM, l Table 5-5.
!bte that the actual capacity for a portion of the traffic stream an link, i, could be less if its rmenant-specific heada y, hm ?_ hsat as discussM ,
earlier. i f22 l We issue of ground fog must be addressed. Discussions with public officials in ccumunities along the coast indicate that ocean fog is an unusual occurrence during the sumar months. All agree that such fog, when it does l appear, occurs primarily in the early mrning and generally dissipates br 3 A.M., and no later than 10 A.M., ja any event. Fog can also occur in the evening after the sun has set. It is generally acknowledged that beach area population is significantly below capacity ja early mrning and late evening. Wus, Scenarios 1 and 2 are certainly mre severe than an early mrning scenario which includes the presence of fog. l l Fog also occurs inland and qualifies as inclement weather, regardless of its location. 2e 1985 Highway Capacity Manual in:iicates "that 10 to 20 percent reductions (in capacity) are typical and higher percentages are quite possible". Our capacity reductions of 20 percent for rain and 2L percent for snow are responsive to these guidelines, lGR 1 l l l An exhaustive literature search has revealed no estimate of the effect of liceanhighwaycapacity. In the absence of such data, application of the ETE for j snow conditions (which includes a 25 percent reduction in capacity) appears l lacceptableforthefollowingreasons: I 3-14 Bev. 2
~
r l o Highway capacity during an ice stem my be less than that during a em i l sncwfall, thus tending to increase travel time relative to sncw. !bte, b'l hwever, that canding operations would restere caiacity of icy pavanant l to a significant extent. l _l o In general, there is no need to shovel a driveway in an ice stom as is l assumed within the LTE to be required for a snowstom, thus tending to l reduce trip generation time, relative to sncw. A reduction in trip l generation time tends to reduce ETE. I l !bte, however, that under severe ice conditions, in the absence of sanding, j scme highway sections with extmded upgrades nay beccre virtually inpassable. l 'Ihus, sanding nay be necer..fa.ev to assure adequate traction on such highway l sections. Link Canacities l Appendix N presents the link capacities, Vg, for the evacuation network shown in Figure 1-3. All links are identified by name and location (ccrmunity). t,-) v Reccmmended Michway System Improvments
'Ihese wc.wu&dations address those highway improvments which increase capacity in a manner which would be nest beneficial in expediting the novement of evacuating vehicles, thus reducing the LTE. Such reccrmendations are required by tRRm 0654 guidelines.
Analysis of the ETE results has identified five candidate system inprovments which have potential for significantly reducing evacuation travel tine. Since nany of these improvments are associated with beach area traffic, they would also greatly benefit travelers under nornal circumstances, particularly during the tourist season. Discussions were held with IDi DOT personnel to review the practicality of these i:promwnts and to estfrate costs. i 3-15 Rev. 2 ( 1 l
i Subsequent to these discussions, a series of sensitivity tests were underden to study the potential for reducing ETE by implementing the candidate highway D:provmonts. Se results of this study are given in Section 10. Se discussion belcw describes these imprtwements and sumarizes the conclusions merging frm the sensitivity tests.
- 1. Route 286 in Seabrook, NH and Salisbury, MA and its interchange with I-95 mis route, extending between I-95 in Salisbury and Route 1A in Seabrook Beach, would be widened to at least three lanes or to a four-lane undivided highway. Such widening, however, would not be fully utilized unless additional access can be provided to and frm I-95. Berefore, any widening of Route 286 should be extended by widening existing ramp servicing traffic entering southbound I-95 frm Route 286, so as to accomodate two lanes of traffic.
mese changes, if impleented, would provide two-lane service frm Seabrook Beach to I-95 for trips originating in seabrook town (including the beach) south of Seabrook Station, me sensitivity tests reveal that significant reductica in ETE for the sumer scenarios would accrue frm this improvement. O
- 2. Route 51/101 in Hampton, lE and to the west his route would be widened to a four-lane divided highway frm Haupton Beach to the present four-lane section of Route 101. It is our understanding that the State has approved plans for this improvement extending frm I-95, westward, including an additional three-lane bridge over I-95. Se third westbound lane is needed to service the weaving traffic novment on this overpass associated with westbound traffic frm Route 101C merging with Route 51 traffic at the eastern end of the bridge and the subsequent diverging of traffic either entering I-95 frm Route 51 or continuing west on Route 51, at the western end of the bridge.
'Ib exploit the full capacity of this widening, the interface between Route 51 and the local street syste in Hampton Beach would have to be redesigned.
Specifically, there is either a need for a direct connection between Ashworth 3-16 Rev. 2
Avenue and Route 51 or sczna other ecnfiguration which will pemit traffic to ( exploit the full capacity of Route 51 in both directions. O] he sensitivity tests reveal that significant reductions in m'E for the sumer scenarios would accrue fmn this imprmwnent.
- 3. Beach Road (Route 1A) and Route 110 in Salisbury, MA Beach Road (Route 1A) wuld either be channelized for three lanes and widened if necessary, or be widened to four lanes. We current plan calls for traffic to fom two-lanes outbound (i.e., westbound) fmn Salisbury Beach to the interchange of Route 110 with I-95. Inplementing this h..._.-iation will ease that process scanswhat by virtue of the road being pemanently delineated (i.e.,
stripad) to guide two outbound lanes esf traffic. As discussed earlier, the intersection of Routes 1A and 110 with U.S. Route i 1 must be upgraded to provide safe access for two lanes of westbound traffic. l l q If Beach Road is widened to four lanes, then the opportunity exists for V establishina an additional left-turn bay on the westbound approach to Route 1.
'Ihis turn bay can service a third lane of traffic which will mye south on Route
- 1. Traffic moving south on Route 1, however, could exacerbate congested L conditions in Newburyport and in I W unless other adjust 2nents are l implementud there (see below).
Consistent with the above inprovenant, the present railroad overpass on Route 110 should be replaced with a nedern structure which will service four lanes of traffic. Also, Route 110 should be channelized for three lanes for the entire distance between Route 1 and the interchange with I-95, and widened, as necessary. Most of this section of Route 110 is already channelized for three lanes. r3 3-17 Rev. 2 U
i
- 4. Access to Scotland Road from Newburyport, FA Presently, there is no direct access to Scotland Road fran the built-up central area of twburyport City. Access is now possible fran Im Street via Graf Road. Im Street is not easily accessible fran the downtown area. Access to Scotland Road is also possible fran Parker Street (in fact, Parker Street is renaned Scotland Road at the Newbury-Newburyport town boundary), but the Parker Street approach is fran the east across Route 1, which would limit its utility during an evacuation.
We r m-4 that censideration be given by the City of Newburyport to extending Graf Road north and into the downtown area. Of course, any such decision should be consistant with the city's long-tez2n plan and land-use zoning. Given that such a connector is feasible and attractive, it would provide another direct evacuation route frun downtown Newburyport.
'this additional route would lessen the danand for service on Route 1 and on Route 113 (toward I-95) and would expedite the evacuation of the city.
- 5. We re umed that consideration be given to constructing a ramp at the junction of Route 151 and I-95 in Ibrth Hampton, to pez2 nit access fran northbound Route 151 onto I-95, northbound. 'Ihis could expedite the movwment of evacuating vehicles fran within the towns of Hampton and Ibrth Hampton and relieve the denand on U.S. Route 1 northbound, thereby expediting the traffic novement frua the coastal areas and the towns of Rye, North Hanpton and Portsnouth.
At a result of these analyses, we limit our recumedations to candidates 1 and 2: 1 o 'Ihe cost of widening Route 286 to 4 lanes was estimated at $12.5 million. Reconstruction of the entry ramp fran westbound Route 286 to southbound I-95 would cost an additional $5 million. Widening Route 286 to 3 lanes l' instead of 4 lanes would greatly reduce the estimate of $12.5 million, t i 3-18 Rev. 2 \ l l l i
i, - -g l
'l !
i l
-.. o The cost of constructing another tw lanes for Route 51 fmn east of I-95 g to Route 1A in Hauptcn Beach is estbnated at about $20 million. "
;
i 3 Mditional funds mast be allocated to construct a new interchange in l Haupton Beach. j
;
I i 4 i i i 5 h
-;
I I r i t t i i L ; I' f t E
?
I 1 l j -- P 1 l 3-19 Rev. 2 1: s ; p 3 ( .- a- p w4 - ~ g yewr -6 we a -Ter *r'2eWY --W'---+-2'e- D9--n -~4 y *"WvWW'--mW- 9-*=wwy e e ww -wwg-ew ww - w
'S s p
) 0 FIGRE 3-1 service RNRMENIAL REIATIOGIP BE'1HEEN WXJ.ME AIO DENSITY volurne >-
e p* : : : : : I""h0' " Free-flowing Ir. creased Inter-vehicle inter- Stop-and- Higher densities i traffic: little interactions actions produce Go opera- possible but observed interaction anioruj redtsce speeds - disturbances and in- tions with- very infrequently ! vehicles stable flow crease speed variance. In a queue Some stoppages and state __ _- mwne formations i i l Capacitr t
' service Volume
! under congested Conditions l
\ !
. \ :,
- N
\
\ ;
N
\
i \ <
\ s Traffic Density (veh/ mile) 3-20 Hev. 2
- 4. DSTIKL"hN OF 'IRIP GR@RM' ICE TDT O l d Federal Governmmt Guidelinut (Lee NLREG 0654, Appendix 4) specify that the planner estimate the distributions of alaW times associatai with activities undertaken by the public in preparation for evacuation. He define the 39 of these distributions of elapsed times, to be defined later, as the Trip Generation Time Distribution.
Backtmmnd In general, an accident at a nuclear power station attains cme er mare
" classes" of Dnergency Action Invels (see Appendix 1 of NCREG 0654 for details):
, 1. Unusual Event ! 2. Alert
- 3. Site Area anargency
- 4. General Emargency At each level, the Federal RMaHnes specify a set of Actions to be I undertaken by the Licensee, and by state and local offsite authorities.
l Evacuation of the general public may be the protective action m m--del when l the plant status is classified as a General Emergency. Beach areas my be l closed, at lower anergency classifications, during the summer season (May 15 to j Septaber 15) as a precautionary action. In !&w Hanpshire, because of the l proximity of some of the beaches to %hrock Station, beach closure would he , l considered at the Alert classification. In Massachusetts, beach closure wou'Ld be l l considered at the Site Area Dnergency classification, As a f.Jannino Basis, w will adopt a conservative postrare, in acconi with l Federal Regulations, tact a rapidly escalating accident will be considered in calculating the Trip Generation Time. He will assumet l o 'Ihe initial anargency classification is a Site Area anargency. o W.at furtner escalation to a General Energ9ncy occurs 15 minvxes later. O 4-1 Rev. 2
i l o " hat the Order to Evacuate is transmitted to the public 10 minutes after the General Dnergency is declared. We ernphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is ng1 a representation that these events can occur at the Seabrook Station within the l Indicated time frane. Rather, these assumptions are necessary .in order to: o Establish a taporal framwork for estdrating the Trip Generadon distribution in the for:at reccrumended in Appendix 4 of hUREG 0654. o Identify ternparal points of reference for the purpose of uniquely defining " Clear Time" and Evacuation Tine Esti::ates (ETE). It is more likely that a longer tire will elapse between the various classes of an mergency at Seabrook. For example, suppose two hours elapse fram the declaration of a General Dnergency to the Order to Evacuate. In this case, it is reasonable to expect same degree of spontaneous evacuation during this two-hour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when the Order to Evacuate is announced, than at the tine of the General Emargency. Wus , the time needed to evacuate the EPZ, after the Order to Dracuate will be significantly less than the estinates presented in this report. On the other hand, there is a lcw probability that an "inmediate" General Emergency can arise, with the Order to Evacuate given almost simultaneously. In
- this case, the evacuation time estinates (CrE) will be smewhat longer than the figures presented herein.
We planning basis adopted here appmxirates the " worst case" conditions, I and is within 25 minutes of the nest extmne condition. Sensitivity tests provide quantitative indications of the effects of accident scenarios which depart fmn this planning basis. The results of these tests are presented in Section 10. s 4-2 Rev. 2 GI1 s i
he notification process consists of two events: / E)\ o Transenittina infomation (e.g., using sirens, tone alerts, EBS broadcasts, loudspeakers). o Receivina and correctly interoretina the inferration that is , transmitted. . We resident population within the EPZ exceeds 140,000 persons who are deployed over an area of approximately 200 square miles, and engaged in a wide variety of activities. During the sunner, an additional 100,000 persons would be within the EPZ. It mst be anticipated that sme time will elapse between the transmission and receipt of the inform tion, me anount of elapsed tine will vary frm one individual to the next depending where that person is, what that person is doing, and related factors. Furtherrore, persons who will be directly involved with the evacuation process nay be outside the EPZ at the time that the mergency is declared. mese people may be ccmnuters, shoppers and other travelers who reside within the EPZ and who 7 V will return to join the other members in the household upon receiving notification of an mergency. As indicated in NURED 0654, the estim ted elapsed tines for the receipt of notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different l notification times for people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time distributions, it is also possible to distinguish between different population groups and different day-of-week and time-of-day scenarios, so that more accurate assessments may be ob* & ed. ; I Furthernere, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day -- families will be united in the evenings and at night, but dispersed during the day. In this respect, wekends will differ frun weekdays. (3 \
') 4-3 Rev. 2
i l Pundamental Considerations
'1he environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation ] trips, consists of a sequence of events and activities. Each event occurs at an l l instant in time and (other than the first) is the outccme of an activity. I l
Activities are undertaken over a period of time. Activities nay be in
" series" (i.e. , to undertake an activity inplies the cmpletion of all gw. ding !
events) or my be in parallel (two or nore activities may take place over the ! same period of tims). Activities conducted in series are functionally dependent on the ccrnpletion of prior activities; activities conducted in parallel are functionally indeoendent of one-another. 'Ihe relevant events associated with the public's preparation for evacuation are Event Number Event Description l 1 Transmission of energency notification , 2 Awareness of accident situation 3 4 Depart place of work Arrive home h l 5 Leave hczne to evacuate the area l Associated with each sequence of events are one or nere activities, as outlinal below: Event Secuence Activity 1 --> 2 Public receives notification jnfonnation 2 --> 3- Prepare to leave work 2,3 --> 4 Travel hcme 2,4 --> 5 Prepare to leave for evacuation trip
'Itese relationships may be depicted graphically as shown in Figure 4-1.
Note that event 5, " Leave to evacuate the area" is ccrxiitional either on l event 2 _ol event 4. 'Ihat is, depending on the circumstances, activities 2 -> 5
4-4 Rev. 2 h
l can be undertaken by sme evacuees in parallel with activities 2 --> 3, 3 --> 4 O l and 4 --> 5, undertaken by other evacuees, as shown in Figure 4-1 (a) and (c). l Specifically, it is possible that one adult m Jer of a household can prepare to leave hxe (i.e., secure the hcrne, pack clothing, etc.), while others are travelling hczne frun work. In this instance, the household members would be able to evacuate sooner than if such preparation had to be deferred until all household msnbars had returned hczne. However, we will adopt the conservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence. It is seen from Figure 4-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e. , the total elapsed time frun Event 1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary frun lone household to the next and frczn one category of evacuees to another. Furthemore, Event 5 depends, in a ccruplicated way, on the tbne distributions of all activities leading to that event. Specifically, in order to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must scrnehow obtain estimates of the time distributions of all gwculing events. Estinated Time Distributions of Activities Precedina INent 5
'Ihe time distribution of an event is obtained by " sunning" the time distributions of all prior, contribating activities. ('this " sunning" process is quite different than an algebraic sum since we are operating on distributions --
not numbers.} Time distribution of the Notitication Process , Activity 1 --> 2 We know of no survey which has accunulated spirical infonnation describing the rate at which notification information is received. Nevertheless, there is sufficient c'e.ta to obtain a reasonable estimate of a notification time frame, based largely on the infonration obtained frcan the telephone survey. (See Appendices F and G.) i 4-5 Rev. 2
1
'Ihe follow 2.ng infomation is relevant EstL-eted Population: 142,194 ;
Average Household ( W ) Size: 2.87 Estimte nanbar of m: 142,194/2.87 = 49,545 Avg. DJmber of Comuters per W: 1661/1300 = 1.28 Percentage of Residents who will be within the EPZ if accident occurs at mid-week, mid-day 0.582 (1.28) + (2.87-1,20) 2.87 x 100 = 81.4 sir.co 58.2 percent of all ccumuters work within the EPZ, according to the survey results.
'Ihe population within the EPZ includes 81.4 percent of all residents, as emputed above, and 100 parcent of all tourists and enployees, by definition.
The tourfse population my be estierad by estimting the average value of persons per vehicle. 'Ihe subject of vehicle occupancy has received nuch l attention in past studies (see Appendix E, items 6,10, 13; also the Costello Report referenced in item 16). For this purpose, we reason that during the sumer, the vehicles on the access roads to the beach areas, at points close to the beachas, are predmtinately tourists. In August 1985, a count of vehicle occupancy was conducted for KID, as repor:aci in item 18 of Appendix E. 'Ihe results of this field count are presented in Table 4-1. 'Ihese results for the mjor beach - access roads my be sumarized as follows: 1 1 4-6 Rev. 2 0
1 1 l l l Averace Vehicle CWancy on Beach Access Roads, l 7_s Auaust/ Sept. 1985 i (} Routre Ws:inesday Sunday Overall l 1A 2.18 2.21 2.20 286 1.91 2.12 2.07 l 51 2.18 2.23 2.21 i As is indicated, these data mveal a nuch lower vehicle occupancy than the values obtained in other surveys which yielded values generally ranging frun 2.7 to 3.5 persons par vehicle. %e factors which could contrik.vo to these disparate msults ares o Sec.ular reduction in family size over the past decade, o Increase in vehicle ownership per household, leading to fewer persons per car, over the past decade, o Be vehicle fleet in 1986 is ccmposed of smaller cars than those in the early 1970s, with less seating capacity, o A change in the denographics of those attracted to the beach area, relative to prior years. Discussions with officials revealed that fewer families and a larger number of younger people were attracted to the beach in 1985. l o mese data, collected over the last week and weekend of the season, nay not be representative of the entire season. Ch the July 4th weekend in 1986, additional vehicle occupancy counts were collectd. Bese results are also shown in Table 4-1. We values of vehicle occupancy are sunnarized below: Iocation M Persons per Vehicle stytm Beach July 4, 1996 2.41 f 4-7 Rev. 2
E l
?
l i i i It>catico ggy Persons car Vehic19 I Seabrook Beach July 5, 1986 2.26
)
Salisbury Beach July 5, 1986 2.32 I t 1 In addition, the license plates were observed in Hanpton Beach to ! determine the state in which each vehicle was registered. We following counts and percentages were recorded: l Mistratior) .Q2WDt Parcantaae l Massachusetts 626 75.8 ! New Hanpshire 64 7.7 Other 136 16.5 A total of 4 buses were observed; their passenger contents are included in these figures. Approximately 5,000 vehicles were observed over these two days. We vehicle occupancy on July 5th was about 5 percent lower than that on July 4th. Based on this data, we will adopt an estinate of 2.4 persons par vehicle, for the purpose of estinating the tourist and beach population. , 1 It is reasonable to expect that 90 percent of those within the D Z will be aware of the accident within 15 minutes with the rmainder notified within the following 15 minutes. %e ccumuters outside the @Z will be notified scanswhat i later, say uniformly between 10 and 40 minutes, while the entire beach area population will be notified within 15 minutes. S e resulting distributions for this notification activity are given below: L 4-8 Rev. 2 O l 1 l-
Distribution fe 1, tbtification Timt Ictivity 1 -> 2 Persons eff the Beacht Distribution 1A Elapsai Cum. Pct. Time (min.1 MM 5 15 10 46 15 79 20 85 25 90 30 95 35 98 40 100
- Persons on the Beacht Distribution IB Elapsed Cum. Pet.
Tim (min. i Notifis:1
/O 5 20 t ')
10 60 15 100 I It is reasonable to expect that the vast nejority of business enterprises within the EPZ will elect to shut down following notification. mst anplofees would take action to leave work quickly. Ccumuters who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly since facilities outside the EPZ would rautain open and other personnel would rurain. Porscnnel responsible for l equipent would .% additional time to secure the facility, m distribution of Activity 2 --> 3 reflects data obtained by the telephcne survey. '1his distribution is plotted in Figure 2-1 and listed below as Dietribution 2. A V 4-9 Rev. 2
I l l Distribation No. 2, Time to Probare to Imve Workt l Activity 2 -> 3 )
~
Fl ar=M Cum. Pet. Time fmin.) imavine Wrk 5 66 10 77 15 84 20 86 25 87 ) 30 93 , 35 95
;
40 95 45 95 50 96 55 96 l 60 97 65 97 70 98 75 98 80 98 85 98 90 99 95 99 100 99 105 99 110 100 EZE The survey data ma nomalized to distribute the l.
" Don't know" response.
l 4-10 Rev. 2 O l l
l l 1 Distribution !b. 3 Time to Travel }tznet tetivity 3 -> 4 i j ( 'Ihis data is provided directly by the telephone survey. 'Ihis distributien is plotted in Figure 2-1 and listed belows i 1 i Elapsed Cum. Pct. Time Imin.1 Returnino H ee ) 5 16 ! 1 10 33 I 15 49 20
)
60 ; 25 66 30 75 35 78 40 81 45 87 50 89 , 55 89 60 95 r 65 95 70 96 - 75 97 80 97 85 98 l 90 98 l 95 98 100 98 105 99 110 99 115 100 l- H23
'Ihe survey data was normalized to distribute the
" Don't know" response.
4-11 Rev. 2
I i Distribution No. 4, Time to Preoare to Imave Hanet Activity 2,4 --> 5 ' mis data is provided directly by the telephane sunvy. mis distribution ' is plotted in Figuze 2-1 and listed below: Distribution 4At Residents & Tourists off the EOnch P1 - ed Time fmin) Cum Pet. PW to Evacuate 5 8 10 16 15 24 20 34 25 44 30 53 35 56 40 58 45 61 50 65 55 70 60 74 65 78 70 81 75 85 80 86 85 86 90 87 95 87 100 87 105 87 110 88 115 90 120 91 125 92 130 94 135 95 l 4-12 Rev. 2 1 l l
Flansed Time (min) Cum. Pet. Ready to Evacuate c, 140 95
) 145 96 150 96 l
155 96 j 160 96 165 , 96 170 97 175 97 180 98 185 98 190 98 , 195 99 200 99 205 99 210 100 E ,
'!he original data was obtained in 15-ctinute increments.
'!he above figures were cal & lated by interpolation and l
normalized as before. Distribution 4B: 'Iburists on the Beach Distribution 4B describes the estinated preparation time to leave the beach area. While we have no ertpirical data to support this distribution, we do know the physical dcznain of the beach area and the activities involved. b l People on the beach or out alking would merely gather their belongings ! and walk to their respective cars. Others who are lodged in overnight ace:2modations and in tourist facilities would return to pack their belongings and leave. Business people and pennanent residents must secure their properties and then pack, before leaving. t
'\
4-13 Rev. 2 , l 1
I since we let that congestion will occur on the beach areas during the summer and that evacuation time will exceed Trip Generation ti:ne, any inaccuracles in the distribution will not influence the LTE. Thus, an l appI".xirate, masonable distribution will satisfy our needs. ! l On a weakand, about half of all visitors are day-trippers. mese people should be able to access their respective cars within 30 minutes of the receipt j of the notification infornation and be ready to depart. This estimate is based l upon the time to walk the half mile beach parking width,15 minutes to walk plus l 15 minutes to gather ones belongings and depart. About 80 percent of the runnining visitors (i.e., 40 partent of the total) j should be able to access their respective cars within 1.5 hours. m e remaining l people are those who must take longer, say, frun one hour, up to two hours. Se resulting distribution follows: Elaosed Tire (min) Cum. Pet, Ready to Evacuate 5 12 10 23 15 35 20 46 25 57
-30 68 35 70 40 72 45 74 50 76 55 79 60 81 65 84 70 86 75 89 80 91 85 94 90 97 4-14 Rev. 2
i i l Elaosed Tire (min) Cum Pet Ready to Evacuate { f#~%
'V 95 97 100 98 105 98 I i
110 99 115 99
)
)
120 100 Calculation of Trio Galaration Time Distribution j l Associated with each event is a time distribution reflecting the range of i time for the population to complete the preceding activity, and the tire distribution of the proceding event. When an event, k+1, deoends upon a prior event, k, then the time distribution of this event, k+1, can be calculated if: l o 'Ihe tine distribatlan cf event, k, is known, add
\_/
l o 'Ihe time distribution of the activity k->k+1, is known or can be estinated. We now present the analytical treatnant to ecmpute the distribution cf event, k+1, given the distribution of the prior event and of the cannecting . activity. l l Alcorithm Jb.1 (Deoardent Eventsi i Caputationally, all distributions are represented as histograms ccmposed
- l. of elments (i.e., each element represents a percentage of the population). 'Ihe
! following definitions apply: let T (k) i = Time at which the ith element of the histogram has ocupleted event, k; i=1,2. . . ,I
'A 4-15 Rev. 2
I tj = Time regai. rad fcr jth elment of the histogram to ! perform the activity, k->k+1; j=1,2, . . . ,J Pi (k) = Percent of population represented 6f the ith elment of the histcgram for event, k. ': hat is, Pi(k) percent of the population has empleted the event, 1 k, at time, Ti(k), over the interval, ; 47=Ti (k)-Ti _1(k). i Pj = Percent of population which reTaizes tj minutes to emplete activity, k ->k+1. t Tm(k+1) = Time at which mth element of the histogram has completed event, k+1; m=1,2,...,1+j-1,...I+J-1 Pm(k+1) = Percent of population representad by the mth element of the histogram for event, k+1. 'Ihat is, Pm(k+1) petrcont of the population has empleted the event, k+1, at time, Tm(k+1), over the time interval, 4T=Tm(k+1) - Tm-1(k+1) ;
'1 hen ,
i l Pm(k+1) = E P1 (k)pj /100 l 1,j -> l i+j-1=m Tm(k+1) = Ti(k)+tj where i+j-1=m H23 I+J-1 l E Pm(k+1) = 100 m=1 4-16 Rev. 2
L - it F -- Dample - Dependent Events--Applicatica'of Algorithm No.1 n /m
- ( ) Tine Distribution Tine Distribution of v.
of event, k- activity, k->k+1 i P1(k) Ti(k) -j Pj tj 1- 30 10 1 50 20-2 .50 20 2 30 30 3 10 30 3' 20 40 4 10 40 Ist m = 1. '&mn i = j = 1 I P1 (kv1) = (30) (50)/100 = 15 ; T (k+1) i = 10+20=30 Ist m = 2. 'then i = 1, j = 2 ; i = 2, j = 1 /' P2 (k+1) = ((30)(30; + (50)(50)]/100 = 34 r m). T2(k+1) e 10 + 30 = 40 Ist m = 3. 'Ihan i = 1, j = 3 ; i = 2, j = 2 ; i = 3, j = 1 - 1 l- P (k+1) = ((30)(20) + (50)(30) + (10)(50)]/100 = 26 3 T3(k+1) = 10 + 40 = 50 l-
s
- Ist m = 4. 'Ihen i = 2, j = 3 ; i = 3, j = 2 ; i = 4, j = 1
- l. P4 (k+1) = 18 , T 4(k+1) = 60 f'N l~ i j ' 4-17 Rev. 2 i
Y+ g - w ' ffp- -
F 24 Ist m = 5. Een 1 = 3, j = 3.; i = 4, j = 2 P5 (k+1) = 5, TS(k+1) = 70 Ist m = 6. men i = 4, j = 3 ; P (k+1) i = 2, T (k+1) i = 80 Camouted Time Distribution of Event k+1 m Pm(k+1) Tm(k+1) 1 15 30 { ~ 2 34 40 3 26 50 4 18 60 5 5 70 6 2 80 m Definitionally, the distribution for Event No. 2 is identical to l' Distribution IA (or 1B) which describes the activity,1-> 2, since Event No. 1 l 1s the initiating event. Ib obtain the needed distributions we apply algorithm No.1 repeatedly, as indicated below: { Obtain Dist. for which is l lApolvAlacrithmNo.1to Event Numbar Named Distribution I l Distributions 1Aand2 3 (Imave Work) A lDistributionsAand3 4 (Arrive Hme) B l Distributa.ons B and 4A 5 (Imave to Evacuate) C l Distributions 1Aand4A 5 (Isave to Evacuate) D 5 l Distributions 1B and 4B 5 (Isave to Evacuate) E l Table 4-2 lists the calculated distributions, all of which are referenced l to the start of notification of that individual category of evacuees: l 4-18 Rev. 2 w
Distribution Explanation j\s.f A Time distribution of canuters leaving work. Also applies to l mployees who work within the EPZ and who live outside the EPZ. B Time distribution of cmnuters arriving hme. C Tine distribution of residents with cmnuters leaving hme i to begin the evacuation trip. D Tine distribution of residents with no cmmters in the household and tourists leaving hme to begin the evacuation trip. 1
,E Tine distribution of beach area tourists leaving the area to begin the evacuation trip.
Trio &neration Distributions for Week-end Scenarios A
\')
l For these scenarios it is assumed that the initial mergency , l classification is a Site Area Emergency (SAE). Upon declaration of the SAE, the 1 l entire EPZ population is notified of the sergency event and the knaches are { l l closed during the sumer season. It is expected that the evacuation process will i l begin within the beach areas innwiiately follcwing notification that the beach ; l lareasareclosed. , l It is postulated that the Order to Evacuate (OIE) is given 25 minutes laftertheSAEisdeclared. Thus, for the " planning-basis" accident scenario, we i postulate two evacuation stages (beach area and' inland) wttich are temily displaced with respect to one-another:
- 1. The Trip Generation time distribution for the beach areas has
-its origin point (i.e., tire, zero) at the time of the l announcement of the Site Area Emergency.
+
A) v 4-19 Rev. 2 l 1
- 2. Se Trip Generation time distributiens for the remetinder of the l- EPZ have their origin point (i.e., tine zero) at the tune l General Emergency is declared or 15 ndnutes after the Site Dnergency.
On this basis, - reference to Dist. E of Table 4-2 indicates that an estimated 9 percont of the pnpilation in the beach area has been mnhilized at the time the General Dnergency is announced. Also, about 32 pertant of the beach area pnpilation is ready to evacuate -- and has started to evacuate - at the time-l the Order to Evacuate is given. On the other hand, only one p=. wit of the l inland resident and tourist population (Distribution D), and 10 peu;c=at of the l eroployee population (Distribution A) will be prepared to evacuate when the order jtoevacuateisissued. Se IDYNEV nodel is designed to accept varying rates of trip generation for each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms. We partition these centroids into three sets - those for beach area traffic, for inland l residents and tourists and inland atployees. %ese histof , which represent Distributions A, D and E, p.vyiu;1y displaced with respect to one another, tabulated in Table 4-3. Rese tabulations present the tripe generated g)d the rates of trip-making
'within each indicated time period, inth expressed as a percentage of the total number of trips to- be generated at each centroid. Se rate of trip making is found by:
Rate = Trios Gs.nerated in Time Period (cercent) Duration of Time Period (hours) Trio Generatien Distribution for Week-day Scenarios ne mid-day scenario produces a Trip Generation distribution which is a l= linear canbination of Distributions C and D. Distribution C applies to those l_ households with at least. one cartmuter, while Distribution D applies to those households with no camuters. 21s linear canbination results in Distribution F, reflecting the fact that about 25 pm.cuit of the households within the EPZ has no l l- 4-20 Rev. 2
ccumuters, accortiing to the telephone survey (see Apperdix G). Distribution F is listed in Table 4-4 and is also presented in Table 4-5 in a fomat suitable for-
.{) input to the IDYtEV syste.
Sncw Cleeranco Tine Distribution Inc1 ment weather scenarios involving sncwfall nust address the tim lags associated with snow clearance. Discussions with local officials indicate that . snow plowing equiptent is nobilized and deployed during the snowfall to mintain-passable roads. We general ecmsensus is that their efforts are generally successful for all but the noet extree blizzards when the rato of snow accumulation exceeds that of snow clearance over a period of many hours. Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway systs will reala passable -- albeit at a lower capacity -- under the vast majority of snow conditions. Nevertheless, for the vehicles to gain access to the higbey syste, - it is necessary for driveways and splayee parking lots to be cleared to the extent needed to make the passable. Rese clearance activities take time, awl this tine lag must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions.
'Ihus, we nust postulate a separate distribution for the driveway snow clearance activity . ard then introduce this distribution into the procedure used to calculate the trip generation tim distribution.
We tine needed to clear a driveway depends on the depth of snow, the available equiptent and the number of able-bodied personnel to perform the task. Since this area is accustczted to heavy recurring snowfalls (see 'Ibble 1-1), it is reasonable to expect that virtually all households have made provision for snow clearance by either owning same fom of equipnent or by contracting for such service to be performed by others. Se following distribution is postulated l based on direct observation and on discussions with people in the area, for a heavy sncwfall. A U 4-21 Rev. 2
Elapsed Tine Cum. Percent of (min.1 Cleared Driveways 15 5 30 10 45 25 60 40 90 70 120 90 150 100 It is recognized that the snow clearing activity can take place in parallel with other activities, e.g. preparing for evacuation. Nevertheless, we will adopt. the conservat.tve point of view that this activity fpq)h the preparation activity, rather tnan proceeding in parallel with it. This posture i will lengthen the tmporal extent of the trip generation process. , i te above distribution will be identifia:1 as Distribution 5. Se event
" Driveways cleared of snow" will be identified 'as Event No. 5 and the event
[ l " Leave to Evacuate" is Event No. 6 for both scenarios involving snow conditions. . L Ne must then perfom the following additional operations to corpute the trip generation distributions for the inclenent weather, m scenarios: in order to which is Apolv Alcorithm No.1 to ] Obtain Dist. for named Distribution Distributions A and 5 Event No. 6 G 1 Distributions F arri 5 Event No. 6 H l Distributions D and 5 Event No. 6 I he results of these calculations are shown in Table 4-6 in a format L consistent with the others. Note: o Distribution G applies to snployees , 1 o Distribution H applies to residents and transients during rJ.d-day 4-22 Rev. 2
o Distribution I appl.ies to residents and transients during the evening /weakerd.
.O l Appendix M presents the trip generation rates at each origin centroid shown in Figure 1-3. Note that these are the estimated rates at which vehicles leave their respective points of origin (i.e. hcme, beach area, motel, place of l business) to begin the evacuation trip. The rates at which these vehicles can j enter the evacuation network, via their respective Access Links depends on l traffic conditions, and may be lower than the trip generation rates. h IDYNEV lsimlation sulnadel canputes these " access" loading rates internally to am 'tically ,rpresent the ev uation emritannv_nt.
' 4, 7.M M,4g . h,.<
' lTe O
*# 4-23 Pav. 2
I TMEE 4-1
. ,. s NtNBER OF SAMPrm VEHIrfM i Y LJ L
Occupied by the Indicated Major = Number of Persons Mean Beach Location Dav Time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7- Occuo. Access. Route 1 8/28/85 10:00AM 33 30 17 8 0 0 2 2.13 Route 2 86 " 10:35AM 63 85 20 10 1 0 1 1.92 X Route 51 11:35AM 29 35 15 10 10 2 0 2.44 X Route 101C " 12:00PM 38 22 7 3 3 0 0 1.69 Route 1A " 12:35PM 35 47 13 6 1 1 1 2.02 X Route 101E " 1:08PM 38. 24 10 5 0 1 0 1.82 Route 1A " 1:50PM 50 61 27 14 5 1 0 2.15 X Route 236 2:25PM 20 32 8 1 1 0 0 1.88 X Route 51 " 2:56PM 41 42 19 10 5 0 0 2.11 X Route 101E " 3:25PM 25 34 17 7 2 0 0 2.14 Route 101C " 3:45PM 31 37 7 2 0 1 0 1.79 Route 1A "' 4:10PM 14 52 15 9 6 0 0 2.39 X Route 101C " 4:40PM 45 30 9 4 3 0 0 1.79 Route 101E " 5:05PM 68 54 12 6 2 0 0 1.79 Route 51 " 5:35PM 29 42 11 8 0 0 0 1.98 X Route 1A 9/1/95 9:30AM 34 53 19 3 7 0 0 2.18 X i Route 286 10:10AM 46 42 7 8 1 0 0 1.81 X s
/~';
Route 51 " 10:55AM 30 84 14 12 6 0 0 2.18 X
\'. Route 101E "
ll:35AM 18 36 17 11 1 0'O 2.28 Route 101C " 12:00PM 22 29 13 6 1 0 0 2.08 - Route 1A 12:25PM 14 ~40 14 10 'l 2 0 2.37 X Route 101C " 12:50PM 25 27 15 11 3 0 0 2.25 Route.101E " 1:15PM 29 48 14 10 4 0 0 2.16 Route 51 1:40PM 9 42 8 10 0 2 0 2.38 X Route 286 2:30PM 36 65 13 16 3 2 1 2.23 X Route 1A " 3:05PM 28 66 20 9 4 0 0 2.17 X-Route 236 3:45PM 27 88 20 13 8 1 0 2.30 X Route il 4:30PM 17 74 11 12 2 0 0 2.21 X Route 101E " 5:00PM 36 57 9 7 0 2 0 1.95 Route 101C " 5:30PM 35 56 13 16 5 1 0 2.23 Ashworth Ave. 7/4/86 9:30AM 14 169 45 34 10 4 0 2.53 X Ashworth Ave. 1:00PM 89 305 73 56 17 7 4 2.36 X Hichland Ave. 9:30AM 202 650 198 176 39 11 3 2.41 X Route 51 1:10PM 58 170 59 35 17 1 0 2.37 X Route '. A 7/5/36 9:30AM 304 992 192 199 57 39 17 2.26 X Route 286 10:00AM 169 321 111 31 27 7 3 2.32 X
'X indicatss that rtute directly services the beach area
!}
d 4-24 Rev. 2
, ~
garr 4-2 CCMPUTED 'IRIP GDDATICN CUMIEATIVE DIS'IPInrRICNS (%) Elapsed Time (Hr: Mini b 3 g D E l 0:00 0 0 0 0 0 0:05 0 0 0 0 0 0:10 10 -0 0 1 2 0:15- 31 2 0 5 9 0:20 57 7 0 11 21 0:25 67 16 1 18 32 0:30 74 26 3 26 44 0:35 81 35- 5 35 55 0:40 87 44 8 43 64 0:45 92 52 11 49 70 0:50 93 60 16 53 72 0:55 94 66 21 57 74 : 1:00 95 71 26 62 76 1:05 96 76 30 66 78 1:10 96 79 35 70 80 l 1:15 97 83 40 74 83 1:20 97 86 44 78 85 , 1:25 98 88 49 81 88 l 1:30 98 89 53 83 90
- l. 1:35 98 .91 57 85 93 1:40 98 92 61 86 95 1:45 99 93 65 86 97 1:50= 99 94 68 87- 97 1:55 99 94 71 87 98 2:00 99 95 73 88 98 2:05 100 96 75 89 99 l 2:10 97 77 90 99 L 2:15 97 79 91 100 2:20 98 81 92 2:25 99 82 94 l
O' 4-25 Rev. 2
I sms 4-2 ^ CmPtTPED TRIP GENERATICN CUMUIATIVE DIS'IRIBt7PIWS (%)(Cont. ) Elapsed Time (Hr: Min) b a g p- I 2:30 100 84 94 2:35 86 95 2:40 87 96 2:45 88 96 2:50 90 96 2:55 91 96 3:00 92 96 3:05 93 97 3:10 93 97 i' 3:15 94 98 3:20 95 98 3:25 95 98 3:30 96 99 l 3:35 96 99 l 3:40 97 100 3:45 97 3:50 98 3:55 98 4:00 99 4:05 99 4:10 100 I L t l
I 1 l 4-26
'Dms' 4-3
- 'mTP GENERATICN TIME HIS70GPAMS FT 4HE WEEK-END SCENARIOS
'l Tima Period. Percent of 7btal Trips and Rates which are Relattve to Generated Durino the Indicated Time Periods Tine of Order Inland Residents l to Evacuate Beach Areas and 1burists Inland Dipl.
(Hrs . :PJ.n. ) (frun Dist. E) (fran Dist. D) (fran Dist. A)
.TEiDE Eate .TKiDE BilkE TEhlE BALE
-0:20 to -0:10 9 54 0 0 0 0 l-0:10to-0:00 23 138 0 0 2 12 l 0:00 to 0:15 32 128 18 72 65 260 l: l.0:15to 0:30 10 40 25 100 20 80 l l 0:30 to 0:45 6 24 14 56 7 28 ,
l l 0:45 to 1:15 15 30 24 48 4 8 l 1:15 to 1:45 5 10 6 12 2 4 1:45 to 2:30 0 0 9 12 0 0 2:30 to 3:30 0 0 4 4 0 0 3:30 onward 0 0 0 0 0 0 x(3) Trips: Percent of total. trips which are generatal at the origin centroids during indicated Time Period. Rate: Percent of total trips pcr hour during indicated TARE Period. This inilcates the intensity of the loading p2.ucess. elm Time zero for Distribution E occurs 25 minutes prior to the Order to Evacuate,
- l 1.e. , at the Site Area Dnargency level. No one is ready to evacuate over the l' first 5 minutes, thus we show the time trun -0
- 20 instead of -0:25. Time zero for Distribution D and A occurs 10 minutes prior to the Order to Evacuate (i.e.,
l the Gmeral Emergency Ievel). It is asnnned that 'x' percent of those within l the EPZ who are inland and who are ready to evacuate prior to the Order to l Evacuate, will spontaneously evacuato. Here x=(25,50) for persons putside, lwithin)theouterradiusofregionstoteevacuated. O V 4-27 Bev. 2
;
TARTR 4-4
- ~
CCMPlfrED 'IRIP GDSATICN TIME DIS'IRIBCTTICN
. FM 'IHE MID-WEEK, MID-JAY SCD961Q (Distribution F) c Elapsed Time Frm General Diargency Cum. Pct. of 5'lm W Tine Cuni. Pct. of (Hrs: Mini Trios Generated (Hrs: Mini Trice Generated 0:05 0 2:05 79 0:10 0 2:10 80 0:15 ' 1 2:15 82 0:20 3 2:20 84 0:25 5 2:25 85 0:30 9 2:30 87 l 0:35 13 2:35 88 0:40 17 2:40 89 0:45 21 2:45 90 0:50 25 2:50 91
() 0:55 1:00 30 35 2:55 3:00 92 93 1:05 39 3:05 94 1:10 44 3:10 94 1:15 49 3:15 95 1:20 53 1220 96 1:25 57 3:25 96 1:30 61 3:30 97 1:35 64 3:35 97 1:40 67 3:40 98 1:45 70 3:45 98 1:50 73 3:50 99 1:55 75 3:55 99 2:00 77 4:00 100 O 4-28 Rev. 2
, , - n-~,, .--- a - -
1
'IABLE 4-5
[~.. 'IRIP GENEPATICN TIME HIS'KGMMS KR 'IHE
'D WEEK-DAY SCENARIOS (DIST F)
Percent of 'Ibtal Trips and Rates Time Period Relative to which are Generated During the Time of Order to Dracuate Iniicated Tine Periods (Hrs: Min) 'Dt;g EgLe, l -0:10 to 0:00 0 0 0:00 to 0:15 5 20 0:15 to 0:30 12 48 0:30 to 0:45 13 52 0:45 to 1:15 27 54 1:15 to 1:45 18 36 la45 to 2:30 14 If. 7 2:30 to 3:30 9 9 p 3:30 to 3:50 2 6 . V 3:50 to 13:50 0 0 l Trips: Percent of total trips at centroid l E Ate Percent of total trips, expressed on a per nour. basis. 1 EE Time zero for Distribution F occurs 10 minutes prior to the Order to Evacuate (i.e. , at the General Emergency level) . U,. 4-29 Rev. 2
l TABLE 4-6 I 1TlIP GDERATION TIME HISTOGRAMS BJR THE j j INCLDOTP WEA2HER, SNOW, SCCIARIOS (D!.stributions G, H, I) Time Period Relative Percent of Trips and Rates httich are to Time of Order Generated During the Indicated tr., Evacuate Time Pericxis (Hrs.:M!n.) Dist. G Dint. H Dist. I Trios Rate Trips Rate Trips Rate 0:00 to 0:15 0 0 0 0 0 0 l 0:15 to 0:30 4 16 0 0 0 ') 0:30 to 0:45 5 20 0 0 2 8 l 0:45 to 1:15 25 50 5 10 11 22 1:15 to 1:45 29 58 13 26 19 38
- l. 1:45 to 2:30 29 39 30 40 32 43 y l 2:30 to 3:30~ 8 8 33 .33 24 24 3:30 to 4:30 0 0 14 14 12 12 4:30 to 5:00 0 0 5 10 0 0 5:00 to 15:00 0 0 0 0 0 0 Trips: Percent of total trips at centroid .
l Rate: Percent of total trips expressed en a per hour basis. A Tine zero for Distributions G, H, I occurs at the General Dnergency (sounding of sirens) wrti.ch is assumed to be 10 niinutes prior to the Order to Evacuate. cO V 4-30 Rev. 2
. , . . .- . - . _ ~ . - . - .
FIGlRE 4-1 M EVliNPS MD ACTIVITIES PRIlCEDDG 'IME EVACIATICN V
~
(See text for definition) 1 -2 3 4 5 L- - m ,y~- ~____- ,-c Inland and Residents q 1 2 5 Beach area vacat.icriars e ic >c j (a) Accident occura during mid-week, at mid-< lay; sunner season 1 2 5 o >c -)e Inland and Residents "
l' 2 5 e M p Beach area vacaticmars (b) Accident occurs during week-end, at mid-day; smeer sessan 1 2 3 4 5 0 h, X ' X ~
,h
~ . _ ,_ - -
(c) Accident occurs during mid-week, at mid-day; non-sunmer season . 1 2 5
? A >
(d) Accident occurs in the evening, non-sumar seaban 1 2 3 _ u u n e (e) Employees who live outside of the EPZ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ . _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ . _ _g Time Inc e sing o Event Activity i' 4-31 Rev. 2 m
-y - . _ _ _ ,,c, . , , - - - . ,.# , , . -.m__ ___ .-- __--_ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - -
- 5. ESTIMATION OF EMPIDYEE POPUIATIN Teble 5-1 lists the anntal average enploymet figures for the years of 1980* and 1984, in the towns located within the Seabrook Station EPZ. We also obtained- sployraent figures for the months of July (in-senscm) and October (off-censon). mese figures, shown in Table 5-2, indicate that sumer uployment is significant in t ;a 'Ibwns of Haapton a.,d Rye, but not elsewhere.
As iruitcated in Table 5-1, the area within the EPZ has enjoyed a significant growth in sployment over c. period of four years: about 20 percent
-increase in New Hanpehire and nore than doubling in Massachusetts. It is vary tenuous to project enployment figures for 1986 since sployment is usually sensitive to the general health of the nation's eccnomy and, of course, the regional econ ey. Ncvertheless, we have projc.cted these figures forward to 1986, using the tabulated growth rates in the 1984-1985 time frame for Massachusetts towns and the mean annual growth rate over 4 years, for the New Hangshire towns. 'Ihese projections are also given in Table 5-1.
1 A careful analysis of the resul.t of the surmy taken of the population l within the EPZ (see its 17, Appendix E and Appendix G) indicates that about 58.2 percent of ccmnuters who live within the EPZ, also work 4 thin the EPZ. Specifically, the survey also revealed that 1300 Households were interviewed, representing l 3730 persons (i.e., 2.87 persons per household) and i 1658 comuters (i.e., 0.445 conmiters per resident) of whm l 965 worked within the EPZ. On this basis, the projected population (see Table 2-1) of 142,194 residents within the EPZ correspords to 63,206 comnuters. ( f these, 36,786 (58.2 percent) work within the EPZ. % e renninder (68,084 - 36,786 = 31,298) who work within cne EPZ, reside outside the EPZ. thus, during a mid-week, mid-day scenario, these employees will be evacuating along with the other people within the EPZ.
*P.e 1980 figures are taken frm the Coswllo Report which cited the Census Bureau as the source. See item 15, Appernix E.
!-1 Rev. 2
1
- )
For purposes of estinating evacuaticm traffic demand, we focus on those
- l enployees who work within the EPZ and who live outside the EPZ.
'Ihe effect of .;
l the CrE of returning ccumuters who live and work da the EPZ is discussed later in j l this section. To estimate the number of enployees - and their vehicles - who work within each town. We s w eis3 as follows: Let l Ei = 'Ibtal number of splayees within Town, i l l 1 C1-
= ' Ictal number of residents widun 'Ibwn, i, who camute to work !
i Ni = Total number of residents withist 'Ibwn,1, who camute to work in !
'Ibwn, i
;
1 . NIi = 'Ibt.il number of sployees in Town i who comute there fran another town Inside the EPZ 4 Ngt = 'Ibtal number of splayees in 'Ibwn, i, who camute there fran outside the EPZ. Ri = Population of Town, i (i.e., residents) - Pc
= Percentage of residents in EPZ who camute = 44.5 1
Pii = Percent of camuters in Town, i, who work in 'Ibwn, i ; i Pci = Percentage of camuters who originate their trips within the EPZ and also work within the EPZ = 58.2 L .By definition: Ci = PcRi ; C = DCi i E = EEi ; R = ERi i i I 5-2 Rev. 2 O l 1
.t
k t
-Ni = P11C i = Pii eR1 P A .
- V NI =-E (Ni+NIi) = PcI C i
NE=ENEi = E - NI i t El=Ni+NIi + NEi where E = 'Ibtal number of exployees within the EPZ NI = 'Ibtal number of arployees within the EPZ who also live within the EPZ.
- NE = 'Ibtal number of arployees within the EPZ who live outside the EPZ l R = 'Ibtal number of residents within the EPZ L
I C = 'Ibtal number of residents within the EPZ who cmmute to work l l Given f
- 1. Ei l
l l
- 2. PcI and Pc
- 3. Ri
- 4. Ci = PcRi Inmediately, w get C,E,R,N,NE I
'O 5-3 Rev. 2
y using the expressions above. O The values of Pii for each town
- nay be found fmn the 1980 census data (Appendix H). The values, N i , can then be calculated. Ren, NEi + NIi = Ei-Ni .
where the right-hand side is known at this point. Sunning both sides over 1: NE+ mil = E - 31 1 i or Ng = E - PcIC fmn the definition of N , Iabove lendENIi = PcIC-31 i i In the absence of any more definite data, it is reasonrble to assume that the proportion of Ngi to NIi is tha. same for all towns, i. Specifically, define r=NIi/NEi which is equimlent to r = MIi/NE i Thm, for every tcwn,1, the number of suployees frun ou'. side the EPZ is estimated as NE1 = (Ei -N 1 )/(1+r). Table 5-3 presents the results. First, we must guard against double-counting those employees who worx at the beach since their vehicles have already been accounted for. Conservatively, it is reasonable te estinate that 25 percent of the enployees in the Towns of
*The data for eight towns are not available. We wa.11 estimate these values, I based on their respective population densities, enployment, and locatieris.
5-4 Rev. 2 ) l
Hampton and Rye work at the beach areas and that 10 percent of splayees in the Tbwns of-Seebrook, Salisbury and Newbury work at the beach creas. aO l This percentage is based on the seasonal enployment picture shown in Table l 5-2. As shown, there are sme 2,000 more enployees in Hanpton in the sumar than l in the off-season. If all these sumer enployees worked at the beach then about j 38% of the total enployee population in Haupton would work at the beach. This l estimate represents an upper bound since there are numerous inland esuh14=>nnents j servicing the seasonal trade that either close or reduce sployment in the off l season. 7he estimate of 25% for beach sployment is equivalent to the assunption l that one of three sumer splayees works away frczn the beach. Since Rye also has l a significant increase in sumer sployment the 25% factor is also applied. The l other towns with beach areas do not show any significant increase in sumer l sployment so it assumed that only 10% of their enployee population works at the l beach. Second, the employment for Seabrcok includes those working on hhroolc Station construction, based on 1984 figures. 'Ihese figures reflect work on both units, i.e. before the second unit was cancelled. We will estimate that see O 1 I U 4,000 sployees at Seabrcok Station are included in the sployment in hhruck 7bwn, who will not be present after the Station goes on-line. Of these, it is estimated that 4000 x (4,222/7579) = 2228 live external to the EPZ. 1 Third, sployment over the week-end is some fraction of sployment during I mid-week. This fraction will vary depending on the season and by location within l the EPZ. Since we do not have data for this fraction, we will make see I reasonable assumptions: l l o For the tourist-oriented 7bwns of Hanpton, Hampton Falls, New Castle,
- l. l North Hampton, Rye, Seabrook, Salisbury and Newbury, we estimate that 70 percent of all enployees work on the weekend, during the sumer season.
5-5 Rev. 2
o Fo' the zwaining towns, we will estimate that 40 percent of all splayees work on the weekend, during the sumar. O o Off-senan, we will estimte this traction of weekend enployent at 25 perce'it for all towns. o During mid-week, all enployees will be considered to be at work. Fourth, it is necessary to recognize that the Trip Generaticn the distribution for sployees differs markedly fram that which is applimhle for residents. We sequence of activities for uployees is shcwn in Figure 4-1(e). We must therefore apply Distribution A (see Table 4-2) to th a@loyee trips. Table 5-4 presents the estimates of evacuating vehicles containing enployees, for various scenarios, taking into account the comments mde above. Table 4-3 presents the Trip Generation distribution for these eployees. l Internal Returnino Cm m.iters l l Upon notification of the public to evacuate, people who live and work L l within the EPZ will be travelling hee an roads within the EPZ. Consistent with l current practice, these trips frm work to hcros were not explicitly nocelled with
. l the IDYNE.V nodel. %e effect of work to hcme trips has been accounted for lexplicitlyintheestimationofcapacitybyconsideringtheirpresenceasinhmnd l l vehicles in estimating the directional split ' of traffic (Section 3). In l addition, their effect on ' capacity is represented as contributing to the 15%
lreductioninroadcapacitywhenevertheroadlinkexperiencescongestian. l l A study has been done to quantify the effset of these returning ccumuters l and to detemine if the 15% capacity reduction is am ve.iate. 'Ib aml 4 =h l this study, the . number of work-hme trips for EPZ inter-town and intra-town l comnutars was determined based upon enployment data (Table 5-3) and telephone j surveys (Appendices E, F, G). %use trips were then assigned apvg.iately to l various EPZ intersections and links along critical evacuation routes during the l time frame when these emnuters would be travelling hme. %is additional 5-6 Rev. 2
'l traffic volume was then evaluated to detemine its inpact on capacity expressed =,- l as a percentage. Se following table presents the result of this analysis: r o ~
I l-- Number of Inpact of Camuter ' Congested Camuter Traffic in Percent of Canacity l l Iocation Trios Over 2 lburs Over 7 Hours l l Ra1 hht ry 631 15.1 3.9 l- square l l Route 110 294 9.2 1.8 I l Route 1 at 430 12.4 3.5 l Route 286 l l Route 51 79 2.7 0.8 I l Route 101 at 1,134 21.9 6.3 l Wese results show, that over the 7 hours reqaired to evacuate the EPZ, l the reduction in capacity caused by internal camuter travel is well within the l-15% capacity reduction acorporated into the IDYNEV nodel. Sarefore, there is l no reason to explicitly nodel these trips in the ETE calculation. I l Additionally, two ETE sensitivity studies were undertaken to explicitly l represent comuter traffic travelling fztzn work to hane along critical evacuation jpaths during the early stages of the evacuation. @ese studies censidered l l l internal, and in sane select locations, external camuters. Se results of these
] sensitivity runs indicate that there is no material difference in the ETE between l -l the original treatnant, where the effects of camuter traffic were represented as .
n l part .of the 85% capacity reduction factor, and those sensitivity runs which l explicitly modelled camuter traffic. L 5-7 Rav. 2
.i I
TMLE 5-1
-fy YEAR-BOUND DRDYMENT POPUIATICN b ESTIVATES BY G2tGUTY j Annual -l Cmminity Total Dimlovmant Rate j l
M M 1986(Prol (tet) ' 1 -_- New Hanoshire
- Brentwood 82 133 170 12.9
' East Kingston 47 72 89 11.3 Exeter 5,309 5,387 5,430 0.4 -
Greenland 279 524- 718 17.1 Hanptan 2,845 3,636 4,109 6.3 , Hanptan Falls 173 296 387 14.4
- Kensington 43 77 103 15.7 Kingston' 384 670 885 14.9 (j New Castle 203 43 43 -67.8 Newfields 678 824 908 5.0 ,
Newton 88 123 145 8.7 r North hanpton 599 962 1,218 12.5 Portsmouth' 11,825 14,803 16,570 5.8 Rye 505 644 728 6.3' Seab a k 7,234 7,459 7,579 0.8 South Hanpton 158 282- 377 15.6 : Stratham 510 947' 1,290 16.7 New Hanpshire Subtotals 30,962 36,882 40,749 4.7 5-8 Rev. 2 w- y ey. -- , y y g www wwwye -e
s mr 5-1 YEAR-RD(.RO DG4DYMDil' POPUIATIW ESTIMATES BY COMJNITY (cant.) Annual-Premmity
'Ibtal Emolovmant Rate 3 M 1986(Proi) fact)
Massachusetts Amesbury 3,954 7,483 7,880 2.6 Ma w4mac 496 2,414 2,543 2.6 Newbury 466 2,451 2,580 2.6 Newburyport 5,413 8,999 9,477 2.6 h14 =ht ry 1,254 3,089 3,252 2.6 West Newbury __411 1,522 1,603 2.6 Massachusetts Subtotals 11,994 25,958 27,335 14.7
'IUfAL in EPZ 42,956 62,840 68,084 8.0 0
1 SOURCE: New Hampshire and Massachusetts Labor Services and Employment Bureaus for the 1984 data. 5-9 Rev. 2
Jr g* g$' I f[?#4 IMAGE EVALUATION //// 4)[& %i' 1ss11Anast m m pppp p I.0 lf EM M E m in W IBM-M !!!!!N l,l 1.8 l l.25 1.4 1.6 4 150mm > 4 6" >
$?%
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/!b,$ ; sp\
%; sm - .
V ._
$f*
9[0* $.
%'{Y#$k/
l IMAGE EVALUATION ////p gI*
#p#,
k///7 TEST TARGET (MT-3) ,f 4 4+/ %g<q, - 1.0 d2 M lf lilla 4
- 6. EM l,l M hllb I.8 1.25 1.4 1.6 4 150mm >
- 6" >
# %,, /4%
'4kiih[d
- $tf>D///r o p, [ <pp L s
4+ Lt l IMAGE EVALUATION ,b
,,,/p v TEST TARGET (MT-3) 8 @4,#g 4)f$,/: + %,[g59 1.0 l?ElaEli hE[ EM ii [= IlllIn 1.8 l 1.25 1.4 1.6 4 150mm >
4 6" > ,t>gs,,,,,,,_
#L%
pgp /
- 4%
x [ e//// , y N %4 . .
. . . -. . . . . . . . . ., j
E
,# 'b +k'# A IMAGE EVALUATION g
////p y y <> TEST TARGET (MT-3) g[O2#4 4)ga:/ %,z,<
+ -
1.0 lN M , c m p* I b E24 C bb l,l I.8 1.25 1.4 1.6 I
- 150mm O 4 6" >
.;![f[p_ , ;[)
,;-$
%=_______. - - -
- '; .
f' , TMLE 5-2 -i W EMPIDYMENP POPUIA*ICN ESTDOFES BY CMMLNITY
, k) KR 'IHE IDMIS OF JUIX AND OCIMER Cmmmity July 1984 October 1984 I New Hanmhire Brentwood 152 127 East Kingston 78 75 l
Emoter 5,634 5,508 l Greenland 544 554 Hanpton 5,213 3,232 Hanpton Falls 318 371 Kensington 79 70 Kingston 719 707 New Castle 54 55 Newfields .
.848 878 Newton 133 150 North Hampton 980 1,075 h
Portsnouth 15,233 15,103
* "p .
Rye 862 643 l hhmok 5,116 6,005- j South Hanpton 361 367 i Stratham' 934 1,015
- i. New Hampshize Subtotals 37,258 35,935 l
l Massachusetts 1: L # =ahrry 7,707 7,715 Marrimac 2,486 2,489 , L Newbury 2,524 2,526 , Newburyport 9,268 9,278 Salisbury 3,181 3,184 West Newbury 1,567 1,569 Massachusetts Subtotals 26,733 26,761
'IUSL in EPZ 63,991 62,696
. . . SOURCE: New Hampshire and Massachusetts Iabor Services and Employment Bureaus N 5-10 Rev. 2 -
. -.- . _ . . .- . - . --- . . . . . - . - . - - . . ~ .
z
'am r 5-3
, ESTDRTES OF W EMPIIhTES 1986 Pii 1986 Dnployees Dcternal Evac.
Pop. (pct) anpl . frun 'Ibwn Dupl. Ehpl. Ri El Ni Ngi Veh. ramunity New Hamoshire Brentwxxi 2,039 10* 170 91 56 48 . East Kingston 1,262 10* 89 56 23 20 Exeter 11,744 51.1 5,430 2,671 1,956 1,686 Greenland 2,225 40 718 396 228 197 Wa 13,234 32.4 4,109 1,908 1,560 1,345 Haupton Falls 1,474 25* 387 164 158 136 l Kensington 1,385 10* 103 62 29 25 Kingston 5,085 24.7 885 559 231 199 ( 'New Castle 621 10* 43 28 11 9 Newfields 868 40* 908 155 534 460 ; Newton 3,744 8.3 145- 138 5 4 tbrth Hampton 3,638 16.5 1,218 267 674 581 , Portsnouth 26,881 61.2 16,570 7,321 6,556 5,652 Rye 5,099 19.1 728 433 209 180 Seabrook 8,158 44.7 7,579 1,623 4,221 3,640 South Hampton 699 25* 377 78 212 183 Stratham 3,445 22.1 1,290 339 674 581 l
- Estimated. These estimates are based on the need to obtain a reasonable
,m. relationship between the resulting values of Ni and Ei .
Q~) 5-11 Rev. 2
'marr s.3 q EETD'ATES OF EVACATDG DG'IOCW (cant. )
1986 Pli 1986. Diployees Detamal Evac.- Pop. (pet) Dipl . - frun 'Itun Dipl. Dipl. Ri El Ni NiE Veh. Massachusetts Anesbury 14,258 38.3 7,880 2,430 3,863 3,330 Marrime 4,420 22.4 2,543 441 1,490 1,284 Newbury 5,479 16.6 2,580 405 1,542 1,329 Newburyport 16,414 48.5 9,477 3,543 4,206 3,626 Salisbury 6,726 21.4 3,252 641 1,850 1,595 West Newbury 3,296 12.2 1,603 179 1,009 870
'IUmL in EPZ 142,194 68,084 23,928 31,298 26,980 0
WIl = 0.582 x 63,206 - 23,928 = 12,858 i NE = 68,084 - 0.582 x 63,206 = 31,298 r = 12,858/31,298 = 0.411 Average vehicle occupancy: 1.16 suployees l' L i l l 5-12 Rev. 2 e! l l l l 1 l l 1
g , 1 44 ,. ; 1 TMLE 5-4 p: EGGNNHij2EM12SER VARIQUSlCENhBIOS1
- d.
maassm_m_vzuzcu:s [ Suninar Off-Season Off-season Seascri l
, Week-end Week-end Midweek Midweek (off-beachi (Ibtal) (off-beach)
Comunity New Hanoshire Brentwocri 19 12 48 48 I
- ast Kingstcm 7 5 20 20
- Exeter 674 422 1,686 1,686 Greenland 79 49 197 197 k Hampton 706 336 1,345 1,009 I
Hampton Falls 95 34 136 136 Kensington 10 6 25 25 Kingston 80 50 -199 199 New Castle 4 2 9 9 Newfields 184 115 60 460 Newton 2 1 4 4 North Hanpton 407 145 581 581 Portsmouth 2,261 1,413 5,652 5,652 Rye 95 -45 180 135 seabrook 1,083 430 1,719 1,547 South Hampton 128 46 183 183 Stratham 232 145 581 581 Massachusetts Amesbury 1,332 833 3,330 3,330 Merrimac 514 321 1,284 1,284 Newbury 837 332 1,329 1,196 Newburyport 1,450 907 3,626 3,626 Salisbury 1,005 399 1,595 1,436 West Newbury 348 218 870 870 TUIAL in EPZ 11,553 6,266 25,059 24,214
.V Q.
5-13 Rev. 2
1 l l
- 6. DDAND ESTD9LTIOJ FOR OFF-SEASO4 AND l
,A MID-WEEK Di-SEASCti SCENARIOS 1 h
For off-season scenarios, it is necessary to estimte transient population. Se number of units available for overnight aw ----%tions during the off-season is significantly less than during the seascn. Furthemom, the rancy rates of these rocas are also significantly lower during the off-season. %e NRC report (by Kaltman) presents the number of units available on a yearly basis aru:1 assigns one vehicle per unit. We believe this approach overstates the number of such vehicles which can reasonably be expected to be within the EPZ in the off season. 'mlephone inquiries with hotelhotel managers indicates an occupancy rate of about 50 percent. We use this percentage. We will retain the NRC estimates for the vehicles parked in lots alcmg Route 1 within the EPZ servicing persons who reside outside the EPZ. he pezmanent residents are the same as for the in-season scenarios. Ibwever, the number of vehicles used - to evacuate the permanent residents may L differ for a mid-day scenario since the school children will be transported g mtely. Bus, many households with multiple-car ownership who have children in school at the time of the accident, may use one vehicle to evacuate,- rather than the two vehicles they would otherwise use to transport the school children who would be at hcme. We rationale supporting the estimte of the number of vehicles used to evacuate the pemanent residents, is given in Exhibit 2-1. %e survey (see Appendix G) yields the number of school children in households of different size. We can then calculate the household sizes when the children in school are evacuated separately. Refer to Exhibit 2-1 for the data used below: I v 6-1 Rev. 2
1
;
i >l I l No. of H.H. in- No. of Cars Used H.H. Size w/o children Survey Sanole* Assumo. 1- Assuno. 2 - I l 1 216 192 192 (Note 1) 2 739 730 730 (Note 2) 3 242 242 242 4 92 92 129 5 18 32 32 - 6+ 13 __._23 ___22 1,311 1,348 H23 (1) 163 + (216 - 187) (2) 450 x 0.958 + (739 - 450 x 0.958) Se adoption of the estimate of 2.6 perscos per vehicle for households containing school children, determined in Exhibit 2-1, results in a total of 1435 vehicles servicing the sanpled 3,730 residents. If we apply Assunption 2 of Exhibit 2-1 to these households which are reduced in size due to the children being in school, than the number of vehicles used for evacuation is 1348, as shown above. 2e children, which number 786 for this sanple of households, would be transpo' ted in approximately 20 bussa. A bus is " equivalent" to two passenger cars, approximately. Sus , the total number of vehicles for the mid-day, j mid-w a: . scenario is 1388 vehicles, (i.e., 1348 + 2 x 20) capared with 1,435 L vehicles for the weekend. mis represents a not reduction of about 3 percent in the number of evacuating vehicles, even after accounting for the school buses. L
*187 + 450 x 0.042 + 246 x 0.041 + 247 x 0.004 = 216 l 450 x 0.958 + 246 x 0.429 + 247 x 0.498 & 206 x 0.358 + 64 x 0.333 = 730 i
246 x 0.53 + 247 x 0.255 + 106 x 0.321 + 64 x 0.231 = 242 247 x 0.247 +106 x 0.198 + 64 x 0.154 = 92 106 x 0.123 + 64 x 0.077 = 18 l 64 x 0.205 = 13 (Percents taken fran page G-2) 6-2 Rev. 2 l
I l 1 r% k.) ' We will adopt the conservative posture that sme housynlds whose size 'is reduced to 4 cr fewer persons when the children are in school, and who have access to nere than one vehicle, will take two vehicles in anticipation of the eventual' need to ace- -yhte the children. In addition, we anticipate that many parents will pick up their children - and, perhaps, those of neighbors - at school, prior to their own evacuation. %us, we will not apply the indicated 3 percent reducticm in vehicle demand, for the purpose of estimating evacuation travel times. Instead, the evacuating vehicle p=dation for residents used for the off-season scenarios will be the same as used for the in-season scenarios. Evacuatina volumes for the Sunmar Mid-week, Mid-day Scenario For this scenario, it is assumed thatt
- 1. Beach area population is 75 percent of capacity.
l 2. 2ployment within the EPZ is at usual mid-week levels. mat is, no allowance is unde for the fact that sczne workers will be an vacation.
- 3. ' Ccanuters who live within the EPZ will return home, then evacuate with the other =+ans of the household.
- 4. %e Trip Generation distributions are:
l l o Distribution E for beach area i o Distribution A for inland e gloyees o Distribution F for inland residents and tourists 1 te estimate of mid-week beach area population is based on an extensive data base ccxnpiled by HMM Associates in a repo.rt entitled " Beach Area Traffic Count Pr%u - Seabrook Station EPZ", in 1983. O' 6-3 Rev. 2
I
- 7. 'IRAFFIC CotTIROL A?O VANAGEMD7P T1CTICS I
.,m . , '(/) 'Ihis section presents the current set of traffic control and managatent )
tactics which are designed to expedite the novment of evacuating traffic. 'Ihe - l resources required to impleant these terties include: 1 1 o Personnel with the capabilities of successfully performing the planned control functions of traffic guides, o Equiptent to assist these personnel in the perfomance of their tasks: Traffic Barriers Traffic Cones ,
^
I o A plan which defines all necessary details and is documented in a format which is easy to understand.
'Ihe functions to be performed in the field are:
V ,, l 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic novments which expedite travel out of the l EPZ along routes which the analysis has found to be nost effective. l 'Ihis may entall implementation of capacity enhancment measures to l expedite traffic flow through critical areas.
- 2. Discourace traffic novments which pemit evacuating vehicles to travel in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power station, or which interferes with the productive flow of other evacuees.
We employ the ter:ns " facilitate" and " discourage" rather than " enforce" and
" prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in perfoming the traffic control function. 'Ihere are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated. For example:
o He/she may be traveling hme frm work or frm another location, to join other family nEmbers prelimbutm.f to evacuating. A V 7-1 Rev. 2
1
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o An evacuating driver may be taking a detour frun the evacuation route in ' order to pick up a relative. o me driver nay be an amargency worker enroute to perform an important activity. Se inplementation of a plan .uygg provide roan for the application of sourri
- l. judgment. S e traffic cones and barriers are deployed as indicated in the NHRERP l Traffic Managamrit Manual, SBC Appendix J, arxi Maine Traffic Managunant Manual, j so that there renains roan far vehicles to maneuver through these guides. Wat is, cones and barriers will not physically obstruct passage. In addition,
- priority will be given to transit vehicles (buses, vans, *1ances) and to other f energency vehicles (police, fire, tow trucks).
l 21s set of control tactics is the outcane of the following sucss: ; I l
- 1. A field survey of these critical locations.
f .l 2e sketches of traffic control posts are based an the data collected during field surveys and upon large-scale maps. We have found these maps to be less than accurate in sans rsp;ts.
- 2. Consultation with police department personnel of the towns who will be impletenting then.
- l. 1 L 1 Clearly, any control tactics should be reviewed by trained personnel who are experienari in controlling traffic and who are familiar with the likely traffic patterns. Also these personnel know which intersections j- are probable bottlenecks under heavy traffic demand conditions for nomal i traffic patterns.
l l. 7-2 Rev. 2 L
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1 t I
- 'ICP Activation Priority l
(q) l 'Ihe nost inportant 'ICPs af d ACPs are at those locations where the Traffic l Guides' actic .a can influence the evacuation tim. Since the nnhilizatian of , l Traffic Guides my take place over the name tim frame as the evacuation, the l manning of the 'ICPs and ACPs my not be empleted at the start of the evacuation. l 'Iherefore it is prudent to prioritize the 'ICPs and ACPs to ensure that those l locations that have the greatest effect an the UIE are staf. fed first. 'Ihe 'ICPs l and ACPs in the SPtC Appendix J and the !PIRERP Traffic Management Manual are l prioritized to ensure the nest efficient use of available personnel. I l It should be noted however, that even at these inportant 'ICPs, the presence l of Traffic Guides influences the evacuation tdm only after t.hese locations j experience congestian. Prior to the anset of cxxigested conditions, there is l adequate road capacity to service the evacuation flow. Under these l circumstances, the- Traffic Guides are of value in guiding traffic and in l providing surveillance but they don't influence the EIE. l l 'Ihe assignment of 'ICPs and ACPs by regian depend upon the region's f l geography. Note that sme 'ICPs and ACPs within the EPZ but outside the region to l l be evacuated should be activated. Selected 'ICPs and ACPs located outside the l l evacuated Region will be needed to expedite the novement of evacuees. I l Time to Activate 'ICPs l l Massachusetts I i l Traffic control personnel are nobilized upon declaration of a Site Area l Dnergency and are imediately dispatched to the 'ICPs. 'Ihey begin inpleanting
-l the traffic control strategies when notified by radio that there has been an lOrdertoEvacuate(OIE).
l' 7-3 Rev. 2 i _ . ~ . _ _ . _ . _ _ .-
-Y :
l' Dipirical' mobilization data was gathered during Seabrook Statien's 1988 FDR l evaluated exercise. Based upon this data, it is estimated that the Traffic l Guides will be in place at the high priority 'ICPs withln 1.5 to 2.75 hours fran l the delmtion- of a Site Area Duargency. 'Ihe remaining 'ICPs will be staffed l within approximately 3.75 hours. l l New Hanpahire l l Traffic centrol personnel are mhilized at the Alert if the beaches are to l be closed or, otherwise, at a Site Area Emergency. %ey p.M directly to l their 'ICPs and implement their traffic control strategies for beaches being
-l closed or for regions evacuated.
l l 'Ihe 'ICPs are manned by local and State Police psu.munel. It is expected l lthatlocalpolicewouldbeavailableinabout90 minutes. Based upcn discussions l lwithStatePolicepersonnel,trooperswouldbeavailableasfollows: l l 4 troopers in 0 - 15 minutes !; l 3 troopers in 15 - 60 minutes l 6 troopers in 60 - 120 minutes l 100 troopers in 120 - 300 minutes l Incorreration of 'ICP and ACP Priorities and Activation Times in the ETE I l 'Ihese 'ICP and ACP activation priorities and estimated manning tines have
- lbeen included in the calculation of the -ETEs. 'Ihis was acccuplished by
! l evaluating the road network and determining alternate routes that the evacuees
- . lmight take in the absence of traffic guides to inplement traffic control l strategies. Ibr exanple, evacuees travelling westbound along Beach Road in
[ l Salisbury could elect to either proceed through .414ahary Square onto westtound
,l Route 110 or turn onto southbound Route 1. In additicn, sans road capacities
'lwerereducedtoaccountfortheabsenceofcapacityenhancingstrategies,suchas g ,
l nsing both lanes through Salisbury Square for outbound service. 'Ihis rxxiified l network was then analyzed by the Traffic Assignment and Distribution (TRAD, see l Appendix ' B) catputer model which detennined the vehicle routings through the l network. Se IDYNEV simulation nodel was then run with the local traffic 7-4 Rev. 2 O l
I
- 1. patterns switchirg fran pre 'ICP activation pattarns- with ccreamitant changes in !
l capacity to post activation pattarns as each of the TCPs is staffed. yh s - f E t I
- n. .
l _t'.' 7-5 y3 l. l 1,'
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'1
- 8. 'mAFFIC ROLTTDG, 0150L AND MMOGDDFT FIANS ' '
- g. '
Evacuation routes are cmposed of two dirtinct emponents: o Routing fmn a cammity being evacuated to the boundary of the ' Dnergency Planning Zow (EPZ) o Routing of evacuees fmn the EPZ boundary -to host cerunities and ' reception centers. 3 Evacuees should be routed within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk. '1his requirunant is met by routing traffic so as to nove away fmn the location of Seabrook Station ' to the extent practicable and by delineating evacuation routes which expedite the novenant of evacuating vehicles.
'Ihe routing of evacuees fmn the EPZ boundary to the host canunities must also be respansive to several considerations:
, o . Minimizing the ancunt of travel outside the EPZ fran the points where
.O
() these routes cross the EPZ boundary to the reception centers. o Relating the anticipated volume of traffic destined to each reception l-center to the capacity of the reception center facilities. 1 1: o Assigning the residents of those towns who are members of a regional educational systen, to the same reception center, to the extent possi.ble. 'Ihis would expedite the reunion of school children with l other nebers of .the household, should the evacuation take place during a school day. Consequently, there is a linkage between the routing plans and the choice L of host emnunities. In light of this linkage, a review of the allocation of host emnunities to carmunities within the EPZ was performed. Table 8-1 presents the current assignment of host comunities to cmmunities within the EPZ. 8-1 Rev. 2
A total of seven Emargency Response Planning Areas (ERPA) are defined ERPA Camunity A Hampton Falls,-Hampton Beach, Seabrook B Amesbury, Salisbury i l C Kensington, South Hampton j D Hampton, North Hauptan l E Na nJmac, Newbury, Newburyport, West Newbury j F Brentwood, East Kingston, Exeter, Kingston, Newfields, Newton G Greenland, New Castle, Portsnouth, Rye, Stratham i W ese ERPA are delineated in Figure 10-1. -
;
I me routing . plans for each of these ERPA are presented in Appendix J.'
]
Appendix K presents- maps- - one for each ERPA - delineating the evacuation l routes from each caumunity within the EPZ. These evacuation routes were sutni.tted to the police chiefs of all ; i comunities within the EPZ for their review. Shortly thereafter, KID personnel l E interviewed all police chiefs who were permitted to contribute to the plan. l Table 8-2 is a copy of the letters sent to these personnel. Table 8-3 is a listing of all recipients of the routing and traffic managemnt plans for their ls respective comunities. In addition, State Police received a copy of these plans. n Subsequent to these interviews, a second mailing was nade to all police l chiefs who were interviewed. A typical letter is shown as Table 8-4. A form 1 l used to indicate the priority of each 'ICP was also included. mis fozm is shown as Table 8-5. 8-2 Rev. 2 O' l l l
Subsequent to this second survey, earlier versions of the 'ICP diagra:rs l f~)y-
% l were revised and extended. The NHRERP Traffic Pmagenent and SPMC Appendix J contain a corplete set of traffic control posts. Each post is identified by twn or city and by ERPA.
l Suntnaries ans presented by comunity which indicate the nurrbers of traffic -
-l guides and traffic equignent required to implanant the plan.
l Appendix M presents a tabulation of the destinations assigned to each origin node (refer to Figure 1-3). These assignments - are consistent with the assigments of host comunities shown in Table 8-1.
. R.
l -%Y l~ l 4 I 8-3 Rev. 2 I l
,rj c-rrAm r 8_1 f"j . ASSIGMNP OF HOST CNMUNITIES 'IO CEMLNITIES WI'HIIN 'nE EPZ
;g New Hanoshim h Manchester Rochester Greenland Bmntwood Portsmouth Hampton East Kingston Hampton Falls Exeter
<- New Castle Hampton Beach Transients
' North Hampton Kensington Rye Stratham Newfields Salem
,,.s Kingston ;
s - Newton l Seab a k South Hampton l Massachusetts (- l' l WY Andover Beverly Amsbiry Newbury l Merrimac Newburyport West I W Salisbury l l l r V 8-4 Rev. 2
'S mr 8-2
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LM 'IO p1TCE OHITS r KLD ASSOCIATES INCCRPORATED 300 Breacwev Hunimgten Station NY 11746 (516) 549 9803
'I January 17, 1986 '
Police Chief Richard Henderson ! Town of New Castic ~l Town Hall i New Castle, NH 03854 l Dear Chief Hendersont i i cur firm has been retained by the Massachusetts Civil Oefense Agency (MCOA) to upgrade the Zvacuation Plan for the Seabrock Station. Through a letter agreement between MCOA and the New j Hampshire Civil Defense Agency (NHCOA), we are servicing both i
- agencies.
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^
l \N This Evacuatien Plan includes: ' l i e Design of evacuation routing from each cc== unity within ' i H the Emergency ?!anning Zone (EP") to its Host C :: unity. i s
;
s' Application of traffic manage =ent and centrol at key ; locations along these evacuation routes. This centrol is 1 designed to assure safe and efficient traffic cperations at these locations so as to j Expedite the movement of evacuating vehicles in y directions awav frc= the power station. L 3 Disecurage the inadvertent movement of traffic in directions teward the power station. l Resolve potential conflicts between traffic streams a: intersections, by assigning right-of-way so as to pr==cte safe operations and to keep traffi moving, , These rec == ended r utes and centrols have been designed to be responsive to guidelines specified by the Federal E=crgency Management Agency (FEMA) . Further:cre, these routes, and the supportive centrols, reflect months of computer analysis, , extensive field surveys of the highway system within the EP: and l discussions with pelice personnel. l ( " '\ 8-5 Rs. 2 l
'aAntr 8-2 LE' ITER 'IO POLICE GIEPS (cont. )
Chief Richard Hendersen 2 Janua r/ 17, 1986 j
-i Nevertheless, we are sensitive to the fact that local police are f ar mere f amiliar with the highway system and with traffic conditions in their respective ca--"a d *
- es than any outside censultant. Further:cre, your depth of experience in centr:lling traffic and in respending to e=ergency conditions, would be invaluable in refining and i= proving these elements of the Evacuation Plan. ,
For these reasons we are requesting your assistance in the following respectst
- 1. Please review the rec == ended evacuation routes fer your ce== unity. These are shewn en the enclosed map and are also expressed as routing instructions.
- 2. Please review the rec 0:= ended traffic =anage=ent and control. These are shown as diegrams, indiesting the
~
location of all traffic guides, traffic cones and barricades.
- 3. Opiniens that additional traffic centrols are necessary l h=
ir your ce== unity (sc e communities have no controls assigned) er that those rece= mended centrols.should be
- relocated er changed in any way, would be valuable l contributiens to the plan.
- 4. We recogni:e that there are personnel limitatiens in all !
ce== unities. Please indicate how such limitations aff ect your ability to 1:ple=ent traffic controls.
- 5. Please trieritime these centrol locations, indicating which are mest i=portant and these which are less important.
We would greatly appreciate all epiniens, whether suppertive or critical. These inputs of police chiefs of all co== unities within the EP: Will be integrated within the plan so as to increase.its effectiveness in protecting the public in the event of an accident at Seabrock Stati:n. l To expedite matters, I plan to visit the cc = unities within the EP: next week to discuss these topics with ycu, if your l schedule permits. Ycu will be centacted by phone te arrange a meeting at your convenience. l l l l' l l l- 8-6 Rev. 2 l l l 1 l l 1
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1' M ~ '); LLTIER 'IO PC12CE CHIE23 '(ccat. ) c.'f 4 k 4 g-' 1 6 I 1 Chr.ef . Richstd Hendersen i 1- - Janua:/ .r lE i '19 9 6 5 2 4 , u -
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_Thank'you in advance fer your valuable assistance in these
> matters -
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-} h k. 'f Yours truly, '
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- l Edward Lieber an,.P E. j vice President t ELild - 5 Enc.
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<s m r 8-3 p RICIPIENPS OF PIANS L)
New Hanpshire Chief Robert Mark Chief David Gilbert 136 Winnacunnet Ibsd Box 115 Hampton, NH 03842 Stratham, NH 03885 Chief Karl. Gilbert A~dng Chief Glover
'Ibwn Office PO Box 476 Greenland, NH 03840 Seabrook, tal 03874 Chief-Frank Careciolo Chief Michael Daley 10 Front Street PO Box 55 Exeter, NH 03833- Newfields, tel 03856 Chief William Vahey. Chief Henry Isuwandowski, Jr.
RFD #1 Haverhill, Road Dalton Road E. Kingston, NH 03827 Brentwood, NH 03833 Lt. Sheldon Sullivan Chief Andrew Christie, Jr. New Hangshire State Police Troop A Police Department Route 125 Hampton' Falls,.NH 03844 Epping, NH 03042 ,e x 's - Chief Wayne 'Iheriault Chief Michael Acquillna
'Ibwn Hall 'Ibwn Office RFD #2 RFD 2, Route 150 South Hampton, NH 03827 Exeter, tal 03833 (Kensington)
Chief Neil Parker Box 201 Chief IaBrie Kingston, Mi 03848 PoM ce Department 28 'IW1 lbilow Street Chief David Barrett Portsnouth, NH Box 61 Newton, NH 03858 Chief Richard Henderson-
'Ibwn Hall New Castle, NH 03854 Chief Bruce Golden
'Ibwn Office North Hampton, NH 03862 Chief Walter Dockham Waahington Road
' Rye, MI 03870 0 8-8 Rev. 2
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TMLE 8-3 i RECIPIEICS OF PIANS (cont.) Massachusetts Chief James Flynn E. Main Street Marrimack, MA 01860 Chief Richard Barkenbush 381 Main Street-W. Newbury, MA 01985 '
. Chief Diward Olivera Railroad Avenue Salisbury Beach Salisbury, MA 01950 Narshall Joseph Garand Green Street Newburyport, MA -01950 Chief George Riel High Road Newbury, MA 01950 -
Chief Michael'Cronin 19 School Street i Amesbury, MA 01913 L
' Mass. Police p
[ 1-e - ,- 1 O 8-9 Rev. 2 1'
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f 1 D RTJ' 8-4 m% murw-up umn m pouce cmres a.g, KLD ASSOCIATES l i INCORPORATED 000 BRcA:wAY , MUNTINGTcN ST ATICN, NT 11F46 t ($1615dH8C3 Tebruary 4, 1986 Chief Richard Berkenbush 381 Main Street W. Newbury, MA 01985 Dear Chief Berkenbushi wculd like to thank you for your c urtesy and the assistance you provided at cur recent =eeting. En lesed is an updated set cf sche =sti: drawings identifying the Traf fic C:ntrol Pcsts (TOP) in your ::==untty. These sket:nes include the changes, if any, that you suggested during cur recent
=seting.
l The changes in traffic centrol will result in sc=e changes to the evacuation routes, within the Seabr ck Station E=argency Planning :one (EPZ) . The new c=nfigurst :n of evacuatien r:utes 9 will be defined after the final c:=puter analysis is cc=pleted. With se=a exceptions, we expe=t the existing evacuation :=uting l 1((~~/ to remain essentially intact. A drawing :: the updated l evacuation routes will be sent to you in a few weeks. Please review the updated documentati:n (i.e. sketches) cf the TCP in your ce== unity. :! you wish to revise er delete any of these TCP, please indicate the enanges en the sketches and return the= to =e in the en:1: sed envel=pe. If you wish := add TCP, please sketch the locatien en the blank sheet provided for ! that purpose and return it with the ethers. Indicate the
- j. sequence in which you wculd order the TOP to .be =anned. This sequence reflects your Oudg=ent of the relative "1=pertance" ::
ea n TOP. I would greatly appreciate your c =pleting this review and returning any revisiens to =e as seen as pessible. At that time, we will c==plete .the final ce:puter analysis to quantify the I Ivacuatien Time Estimates (ITI), and evaeustien routes, based en I the final sets of TOP. Thank you 20 your attention to this =atter. i Sincerely,
$ ./ ,$W ., . ,,
Edward Lieberman, P.E. Vice-President b
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8-10 Fev. 2
. .i ..
E p i s m r 8-5 1 (~N PUW '10 5FtLnT 'ICP PRICRITIES .
\j Plasse fill in the Relative Importance of each 'ICP, together with any l 1
ccmmnts, and return in the envelope prcvided. 1 l Sequence in which the 'ICP will be nenned M (Relative Imoortancei Caments
./%
i NI - _ussi 1. 1 Example 1 M Relative Imoortance Cmments Z-XX-01 2
; 2-XX-02 1 Most important Z-XX-03 4 Isast important Z-XX-04 3 1I.
8-11 Rev. 2 1 l. l __ _ _ _ ___ , _ _ , _ . . . . - . -__~-- - - - -
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IJ-9-. k ' s mr 8-5 KRM 'IO SPECIFY 'IqP PRICRITIES (cant. )
- We recognize ~ that a group of several 'ICP my be judged to be equally 1 "esserr:.ial. " Nevertheless, we ask that separate values be assigned to each 'ICP f
- to indicate the sequence in which they would be manned.
l t F w d r 8-12 Rev. 2
-1s , n . ., # - - , , - - . . - + ,-,,----..+,,e-- - - . - - - - - - - ~ . . . _ . - , - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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- 9. ACCESS CCmROL WPMIN. AND AT WE PERIPHERY CF.
p_.y ~ME EMERG W CY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ) AND DIVERSICN ROUTES 4 v;:. The purpose -- of peripheral access control is to restrict entry to the Dnergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and to expsiite the traffic movement of evacuating j vehicles. Entry should be pernitted for the following groups: o Camuters returning to the EPZ, to gather mumbers of their household for the purpose of evacuation. l o Transit vehicles (buses, vans, ambulances) dispatchM to the EPZ to participato in any evacuation. o All vehicles transporting energency response personnel. All other travelers seeking to gain entry to the EPZ should be denied access and provided with local diversion routes. These local diversion routes will enable those denied entry to reverse their paths and seek other routes
.outside the EPZ.
.O l Access Control Posts (ACP) will be activated approximately two hours after j the ' Order to Evacuate (UTE),< providing that inbound traffic volune has declined l to the extent that. the activity of screening notorists will not result in the l fonnaticn of long queues of inbound vehicles. If traffic volume remins high l after the elapsed two hour period following the OTE, such that the s%g l_ process creates long queues (approximately 20 or nere vehicles), then screening l activities will tanporarily cease to allow the queue to dissipate. Figure 9-1 indicates the major diversien route and the cordon line around the EPZ. The intersections of this cordon with highways demark the locations of l Access Control Posts. 'Ihe NHRERP Traffic Management Manual, the SPMC Appendix J, l and Maine Traffic Management Manual detail the location control, tactics and the personnel and equipent needed at each ACP. 7q O 9-1 Rev. 2
t 1 i I he diversion route was developed to satisfy the following objectives: l'. Se route should be sufficiently ruoved fran the DZ so as to - rinimize the extent that diverted traffic will mingle with, and thereby inpede, the evacuating vehicles travelling toward their respective host relocation centers. Any' such mingling and consequent Vance should take place well outside the. EPZ.
- 2. 'Ib the extent possible, the diversion route should consist of high-capacity highways.
A conparison of the diversion route in Figure 9-1, with the evacuation, routes shown in Appendix K and described in Appendix J, will indicate that the first objective is' satisfied. Specifically, evacuating traffic fran North Exeter, Newfields and Stratham will mingle with diverting traffic on U.S. Route 4 in New - Hanpshire. %e closest point where such merging takes place is the intersection of U.S. 4 and U.S. 202 in Northwood, NH, a distance of over 15 miles frtrn the DZ bcundary. Traffic to Manchester will, to an extent, utilize I-93. Se closest point on I-93 to the EPZ boundary is about 10 miles. To satisfy the second objective, the available Interstate Highways are O utilized (I-93, I-293) as well as sections of other access-controlled highways !~ (U.S. 3, Massachusetts 128) . We have also specified the best available routes lnorthoftheEPZ: U.S. Routes 4 and 202 and Maine 111. Se northern end of the diversion route connects with I-95 at aiddeford, l Maine wttile the southern ends connect with I-495, Massachusetts 128 and the Boston netropolitan area. , he cordon line and the ACP locations were developed to satisfy the following objectives:
- 1. Control all open roads crossing the EPZ boundary.
- 2. Select ACP locations.
9-2 Rev. 2
;
as close to the EPZ toundary as possible so as to minimize the 7, . number of people who could originate a trip into the EPZ frm
, points between the ACP and the EPZ boundary.
. so as to minimize the number of personnel needM to secure the EPZ boundary.
which will enable those vehicles denied entry to the EPZ, to safely change direction with a mininum of delay and turbulence. I tese ACP are specified at the same level of detail, as are the Traffic , l Control Posts ('ICP) in the NHRERP Traffic Management Manual, ,SPMC Appendix J and l the Maine Traffic Managment Manual. We procedure atployed for developing these specifications are o Perform a field survey o Sketch all ACP o Distribute to State Police for review l We field survey ms empleted and the detailed sketches developed. %is report has been distributed to Massachusetts and New Hampshire State Police for review. Sme of the existing 'ICP within the EPZ also serve as " internal" ACP. . Wat is, if a specific region 1s to be evacuated, than those 'ICP on the periphef of tMt region must also serve as ACP restricting entry to the region.- t Fortunately, since all the 'ICP controls restrict novments toward the Station, there is no need to alter these controls when they undertake the dual role of ACP. L l he NHRERP Traffic Managment Manual and SP!C Appendix J identify which l l 'ICPs also perfom an ACP function. At the cmpletion of the evacuation process only the app us.iate ACP will continue to be manned. 1 != 9-3 Rev. 2 1 1
Identification and Installation of Control Devices l All Access Control Posts are designed not to restrict access into the Duargency Planning "one (EPZ) or into the Region orderud to evacuate, to those l i vehicles where occupants will provide same fom of energency-related service. l me remaining traffic will be denied entry and will be prwided an alternative route which directs them away frm the EPZ. l l Whenever traffic operations at a location are restricted, it is sound practice to infom drivers in a timely and unambiguous manner, and to assert ' guidance control. Both needs are fulfilled, in pert, by installing suitable j traffic control devices as detailed in the NHRERP Traffic Managenent Manual, the l SPer Appendix J and Maine Traffic Managatent Manual. # l te attached exhibits are excerpts frm the Manual on Unifom Traffic l Centrol Devices (MUICD). Rese excerpts provide general guidance tnat may be l useful in detemining the traffic control devices to be used at the 'ICP and ACP lduringanemergencyevacuation. Rese excerpts discuss the following topics: l
- l. Exhibit 9-1 Purpose and Use of Traffic Control Devices l Exhibit 9-2 Signing for Civil Defense l Exhibit 9-3 Use and Application of Barricades l Exhibit 9-4 Use and Application of Traffic Cones I
l Control devices for implutenting short-tem traffic strategies under l emergency conditions need not be in strict turpliance with the MUICD l recommendations for work zones. For example, traffic cones, suitably lreflectorized, provide a highly visible means for alerting and channelizing l l traffic, and would be an adequate alternative to barricades for short tem j l control of emergency operations. We use of cones is warranted since emergency l response personnel nomally respond in autombiles with limited storage capacity l which can acu--- late cones but not barricades. 9-4 Rev. 2 L 1
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\j; EIHIBIT 9-1 GEN!RAL HWISIGE T 15E MHCD too unsroem o ease e twee e e - -. -- -
fle laws end Ordimences which le the estionsWy reeegnere eased see th6e seen. I Five heele comenderettens are eveployed te lausee that these eegoire. enents eve seet. They eve: desigst placement, operattee, ..s/u, and esdforsatey. Port 1. GE1ERAL PROVISIONS me.p..f the deesee eheets eenere ase one.atm. n este.tenere t, essero,.ha,e.ee.,eenie d bekenes.,aftereerirmase-essahased 3A-1 I"wepose of Teoffle Centeel Ekdces h desw attutten to the de, lee; tw easept eim.nIwg ud simphney d eneenage contbine to predece e eteer enes=eng; that legthshey and else The perpose of traffic eenteel de, lese end wereesite for their ese le to esseldee =^e b pt eement to pensit edeegeate thee for ,eepecee;and that help insure highway oefety by providing for the orderly end predictehle g , , ,,,4
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ene== eat .f en eenfm..me, teed end e e.stenmed, throoghet the h cos s,,e.d se. tw w a odce, e # s.,a.r.ceek e w entlenet highwey seemopoetstion eyeeese, med to prodde each goedence , ,p,,,,,,, g,,gp,,,,,,,,,,,,,,p ,,,,,,,,, & ,,_ end weemings se see seeded to lasere the emee end Intenmed opereelemet g snm,6 dest e e of the inW anem. Pfece.=e=f of the da,tre ehemed severe that It es werh6. et,e e ee of Traffac conteeldevlees see need te direet end eestet wohicle opeesters otehne of the viewee se that te seEl cosamond ettemeten; that et to post-Oui the guidance and omwigettee taeke vegelred to ereweese oefely say , t "easey*g p"P*e W M M h WM e**W eigne e,e solely for the peryeee of teeffle een- w4th emetente legibsDey,6e each that e de,*ee teswlbog et seeeel speed tres end - est en edwtie=g seedio=. I ee edegense teme to seshe ele propee reopease 3A-2 9t ' " ---. e ef Teeffle Cometel fleveeee
,eeeeed _ . 2 m s.eeened e e.een eh, troer.e _ . ce se .
This tion =30 eets forth the hode pelmetyle,thee gev ce the deelge end giere tecees pe,,% the de,4ce messe he ylee,J esee eyeeeeed se
- eees, of ereffie centees de.aee Thne en=ce see r oppee, ehesecheme eh e e,dge,n e d es 4.teet e.a ee enm. e. ti *see-e poems.se, ehm
; tese 6.diseweede=e of
- de. nee ,e .hach es.y apper.o.4 et to ei-parteet ,,i,s,se eye,me,e ,ee ge ,e,eceed to peepees, ,eepe.d e, the desace, that they be ge peteery . m:tten t h oetectsee e.4 oppme***" t.ewd on the.r preenmee espeew, te on-a.c tufr., ee.eees esesse.e et each dole.- afmee=e. ice et devie,. .u a.a e,e to higer stendeede e, oneee he The DEmment peeeeses te free asent device etendarde for et etnete legMhey to evees.J. thet the devere k de bee, s and that it le e= moved if and bisheeys open to pubtle treeel eegerdlese of type er clean se the a awded Clm W. respreely mesessited deden in gent ge=eensmestal egency beving jurtsdictlee. Where e dedee le Intended us.d eien . " th enpect of eents te speestere end pedeo-fee hentted oppaleatles only,or for e specifie eyeteen, the test spectflee ,,,,,,y,,4g,,,,,,,,,,,g,,g ____ _ , koettemet - _ - . Se the eestrictnome en Its ese. h esp eeded teeffie esoteel deutece to eereene seedeeses,e To be effeethe e teefile esoteel deotee eheeld smeet fke heele wgebe- end ao ee e ___ _ _ , trefm eensvel deetees The fact ehet e de-mate. Tliey em etc, to en good phyeeret esadettee shouse est he e basis for defoe,4mg
- 3. Felfill e seed. eeeded e,placensent er ebenge. Furtheressee, esselesely eseested meses.
- 2. Ce====d etteatie=. te.a es. demar he e ea of a geene of d*eien by es +. *.
- 3. Ceavey a etew.e6=ple eme8at een of honom. f se een.pse npasees e et e age s. e emp w we**
- 4. C ==esad enpect d end swee- h, es,e that de d peepo,4 aees, seege s=a, te=4 ee depeeear, sehen ==
- s. ca.e adegeme e=== tw papw enrease. the ies.
- 1. es. em .f eegetasery desseee, the setss== eegelred et eeback fratre meer of tarr.e een,es deesce. sa.phr.ee te. sen of ehe esed operatees and ; _ _ L ehe=Id be specime by State netwee.er by ,se, hecewee It sede in emsele4.= eed --l- - _:2 . It aMe ewed meers secos e,4+ em w mesetsee .hach e e . eet ith omteses ===- pene etr.cm. e=d ecoffee eewee by c.eeag eewyene h ume 6sewpee-derde, tJeeferemley of _ _ to ettel eeeffortewe treffle eesseeel dedree. toene._ gt esde pobae h4gh y and ereffle effles ek theeogh . y to stes.ge e red se de+ sees no shee see.eet e. gw.res emed -th e efaceaee, t ea.eio mme.e= e d ed==*=neeem==
9-6 Reve 2
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= mnd FEM MFITD SETIQ8 G: SIGEDG KR CIVIL DERNSE en ti.e et of demaes,e the e wen f.e e a.neng of highweyeihat ..anet be used, e eeenteeHed opeestion of eettain Jeongneted highways,th es. In the "ent of eneng,.cy,9et, and lord enehe een o ,ese e,4 6.h tabhsheng of eegedation poete fee the espedsting of essensist teefree, ess.4 epieus tent *ee for etwehen echef, e wnentest.,n, n ,ase et ,,a ,, ,,,,
et , provisiese of emergency center, fee deileen old. eWM peepnees To gotle the 3mbhe to seek eente,3 e neeere es diece. To goede end contret highesy troffic in en emnergency. epecial hech- 13*"el
- gas well be eseeded Timene eigene ohn esee, tw % % %
o my signs win be me,ded.The sign, bege speesfied he=e tawn orpreved '*"" M ** *"** Endicating the direction to the eeeeee They dan t., end see hee, prescreed me stendard for ese when and w%ew applecoO4e M ** *"ded. at intweeetions end ehwhew, en the ,,gh, he d
* *# '** '**d'sy, et a he ght e in se ban see et et L.s.4 7 f,er, e.,4 in the end defense twegrene.
new cencegency sages wiu not personnently dimpleee any of the etse_ hs then 3 fut Inach feese sp<e for, of the emeh, en.f en reeJ e,.a. ,e ,e daed signe that see s.ecaneWy opptocehle. end es emendstlene perinit (Diey b'EU *f 5 feet, s to to f,et fees the ,, d.,y ,ag, sheht be reptared er segnmented by atendard signe . . These 6& gen shes emeer one of the foldeweeg legende,e, eppeerceare.ee othere desegaaemg ennuter e ,,gency facitsee,: Tee eeeeesny he stechpiteeg and ice emergency fabrtentiese, eB the spe- g,LCONTA tefN ATION CENTP R etal enrol defense signs, with th eseepteen of the Eeeeestion Renee gEGISTR ATlttM CENTER blarbee. e*e desegned for a slagte size of p*ste enessering 24 by
- WEf1AltE CENTER enches, e*J have a beach legend and heeder en e white becbgeoissut %. p g,,,, n g, ,;pp97 g beebreene d A==bt te eefinteeired
--; e d we In en emwgeary these eigne enay be needed in la*g*.
fue essentiany e, eey woe. Considerstlen should erecedingly be gle-en to their tabe4 steen fees = eny hght and eeeeeenical e tenas that can seco, theengh the esseegency persed. Amy of these signe sney be e. , ' I by a standsed triangelse DEECMI488Pt4IDD sweebee for esserbens erees cent ominated by beslagical end einemiret war-fare egente onst endseactive fathsest EENIER Th A RF A Cf.f pSEfs sign she5 he esed to elese o esede ey entertog d en seem freen olisch og traffie le eseleded becaese of dangerees todse-logical me beelagicalcent omination. It shaR be erected on the shamelder es ' '
- e ese es practeestdo to the eight head edge of the rendosy,er peeferably en a poetable . -6ag er bereteede pertly se wbeNy ese the eseJ=ey.
f er toest eiesbdity, paeterolarly at night,it, height should not su.emony eseeed 4 feet feene el.e poweme.t to the boeteme of the sige tietes adeqeete edvance wmening signe see used. le shoekt not be se peaced es to eveate e cosaplete end uneveldable blechede Wtere fesseble,the eigen sheeht be toested et en 6ateraction that peewkles e detese reiste. AREA CLOSED ee., So" e 9e* 9-7 Rev. 2
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{' O )' s v EIHIBIT 9-3 EQM'TS PRIM 15E MHCD QN BRNtIgn0Eg
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c e.to.,o ,ee b.se*,d.e e e ehe. ehere.e erase sa =we - _w - se,4, . isie,s g d.meneed se .e e .gi. .e as degevee se -ae d recen.e e7 p ,
,een .e n we,eee . -ede ee. e -iee., - e ee.de ey. p. .e de se,ie '
q, .. s %,~ d shot the eteipes elope demowned se the deeettom esemed ek6ei eroffie oneet eere se deseeri g where both eggi.e end sers earse e-o , .44 4 '* **K for, the cheveen eartp6eg semy eBope doweened le beeb dherse-s femen the e,eee, of the beertrede. Reeeetode ends chauste be seppeeted be a emmenee thee e C eliese thews se he e,ee by the emetered med prooide e stehae empreet me : ea,dj t leen etee by the werd ee everfie. For Type f beerwedes, the s.ppet eney herteste sehee eneersped heressatal penete neeeeeery se pee #.e e obduey. The mesme of the esency.eeeeeeeter, er emppher ehe. ees " e ches on the face posto of any beertrede. Ieemediretten seechisigs ray Le shee e esity em else bach ende of hereseede ende The ege*4ee seen et ereese end whate shell be e fleex tsed web e emeterial that hoe o esmeeth, seeied emeer surfere eherh ed diepy the easme appreedomete sese shape esel eener day end eight.1te ;,,ede.wineet essee for seher be rwede _ . :e ehen be shoe. emp nos om. peeeeed geManned emeset er _ eesoposeers esey to seed. Becewedes are laceeed ediscent to teeffic eed therefe estjees to tsu pere by evenne eehiclee Seceese of their welmeesh8e pz,essee and the poseehte heterd they eensle eveese, they einseed be comeer. red of light-seighe ease,e ale end heve neeig6d easy besetog for "A" #-e-o ceegne. Tetes et a se mesec Tee ** c ct ter wm a see e- e.se-er e er ede. er .e. 6 e_ et == eear.e se oes e a e. s a one e e := wene es ss , -e e ee aw e er. Eshibit 9-3. to erpta f eove the MtFTCD ore eseese 3 m use s a ee ar _= g,, g a 4"'eres ee91e 9: mese w 2 esee oesh e eseeseh enesee.e & ere 4 sneense th enrosenese see e e.e. e a' '.ar e :rm ane er!eeo w em se earte*e *,
- 9 se amese essoireene amenemme haembse _^
** O se oes hee enee a esos emme. e ese eese ease,se ehme se esse 9-8 nev. 2
_ _ _ - - _ _ _ _ _, - - - - . , , . , . - . m - ,m _ m-, , - -- .___ . _ . . . ,d
s EXHIBIT 9-4 EXCERPI'S FRCH ':ME MIJIC CN CINE DESICE AND APPLICATICN
\
Q) Trafne en.ne and tubular markers of varmun wnGguratanna are avad. abie. These anall be a minimum of 18 inchen in neignt with a broadened bue and muy ne made of vanous niatenals to witnstand impnet withuut damage to themocives or to vennleo. Larger bize conen should be used on freeways and other roadways where sperda are relatively high or t wherever more conspicuous guidance is needed. Orange shall be the predommant color on cones. They should be Lept clean and brignt for maximum target value. For nighttime use they anall be redecton:eil or equipped with lighting devices for maximum visibility. ReCectonted matenal shall have a smooth, sealed outer surface w hich will display the same approximate color day and night. Redeetonation of tubular markers shall be a rninimum of two three. inen7a'nus piaced a maximum of::" from the top with a maximum of 6" between theynds. Renectonation of cones shall be provided by a minimum 6"4aand placed a maumum of 3" from the top. 6C-4 Cone Application included under this heading are a group of devices w hose pnmary funetton is the channeliution of trafne. They may be contes! in shape, but there are also tubular shaped devices available capable of perform. g3 ing the same function. They may be set on the surface of the roadway i ) or ngidly attached for continued use.
'd Traffic cones may be easily stacked on a truck and one workman can can and distnbute several cones with ease. This mobility and Cexibil.
ity (which cannot be equalled by Type I barneades) increases the useful. ness of these devices. When cones are used, precautions are necessary to assure they will not be blown over or displaced. This may be particularly entical adja. eent to lanes of moving traf0c where there may be a wind created by passing vehicle . Some cones are constructed with bases that may be Giled with bailast. With others it may be necessary to double the cones or use heavier weighted cones, special weighted bases, or weights such as sand bag nngs that can be dropped over the cones and onto the base to provide increased stability. These added weights should not be sufD. cient to present a haurd if the devices are inadvertently struck. In general, trafnc cones have a greater target value than do the tubular shaped devices. However, the target value of either device may be enhanced danng the day time by the insertion of an orange dag in the top and at night. by reDectorization or the use of lighting devices. 1 \ s 99 Rev. 2 1
6
- 10. F#CtATIOJ TST CSTD%Tcs !ETE) KR GENTN1 TOPIMTION '
p t (~
) Mis Section pmsents the current asults of the cTputer analyses using the IDYNIN Systcrn. % ese msults covert o ' nun evacuation scenarios as described in Table 10-1.
l o ' Fourteen regions within the Seabrook Station EPZ, as defined in Table l: 10-2. Each region consists of one or nore Dnergency Response Planning Areas (ERPA). These ERPA are shown on Figure 10-1. The ccumunities emprising each ERPA are listed in Table 10-3.
;,
mese CTE for each Region-Scenario ccrnbination, are presented in Tables 10-4 through 10-8. - o Table 10-4 presents the crE for the area within a ci.rcle with a radius ! of two miles centered at Seabrook Station. o Table 10-5 presents the CIE for the area within a circle with a radius
;
(' of five miles centered at Seabrock Station. ( o Table 10-6 presents the CTE for the area within a circle with a radius of ten miles centered at Seabrook Station.
.t o Table 10-7 pmsents the ETE for the entire Emergency Planning Zone ~
l (EPZ) of Seabrook Station. o Table 10-8 presents the ETE for the regions ordere:i to evacuate. For example, if it is detemined that everyone within 5 miles of the ; Station should evacuate, then all cmnunities within Region 5 (ERPA A, f B, C, D) will be ordered to evacuate. The UTE of intemst, then, are those which apply to evacuees who begin their trips frm within 5 miles of the Station. Idditional travel tine frm the regional boundary to the EPZ boundary is scrnewhat of acadanic intemst since the evacuees are then outside the specified area of potential risk. l V 10-1 Rev. 2 l
mus Table 10-8 pmsents the ETE wnich are of primry i:"portance within the context of mergency plannir.g. , Table D-9 pasents the evacuation time estimates frun the beach areas, only, for Scenario 1 conditions, ne values of ETE are obtaine:1 by interpolating fran IDY!EV output, wttich are generated at 30-ntinute interials, then rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. mus, the numerical prucision of these values is within :10 minutes. Recently, software was developed to perform this interpolation, providing smewhat nere accurate estimates. Again we ephasize that all ETE are referenced to the Order ' to Evacuate. Discussien of ETE l A total of 134 cases have been analyzed - each case represents a possible evacuation protective action. l Wese ETE data are presental in a concise tabular format in Tables 10-4 through 10-9. Each entry in these tables is the value of ETE for the indicated l circumstances (i.e. , Scenario as defina:i in Table 10-1), protective action (i.e., Region ordered to evacuate), and radius of the circular arm centered at Seabrook Station. l Sensitivity Tests I l The ETEs have been calculated several times to reflect updated linformation. These calculations included several sensitivity studies to analyze l certain variables of interest. The results of these sensitivity studies provide l useful insight into the evacuation process and the resulting ETEs. The following l selections summarize the results of these studies, same of wttich do not reflect j l the nest current data. (We Region and Scenario definitions have not changed.) l Thus these ETEs are not necessarily cmparable to the ETEs shown in Tables 10-4 l through 10-9. Nevertheless, these studies are useful because they indicate the l sensitivities of the ETEs to variations in the underlying inputs. 10-2 Rev. 2 ' l
Vatytna nwen Mrulations
) me ;cpulation of pemment residents and pemsnent wployees within the Seabrook Station Energency Planning Zone (EPZ) Ima.tn reasonably stable over the year. In centrast, the tourist popalation increases greatly during the sumer nonths of July and August, relative to the level that prevails over the other nonths of the year.
%e beach area population is even noru volatile than the seasonal tourist population. Roughly half of the beach traffic on a crmded day is emprised of day-trippers. Thus, the beach area population is " weather-driven" as expressed by a ranber of a local Chamber of Camerce. If the weather is unappealing, the beach area traffic could be less than half of what it wuld otherwise be on a hot, sunny day. Day-of-wee.k is another facter which influences beach population.
! It is therefore prudent to quantify the " elasticity" of Evacuation T!re Estinctes (UTE) with respect to beach areas population, psrticularly in visa of the high volatility of this population as noted above.
(~'s { Sensitivity tests were perfomad, wttich mduced the beach population by as j much as 60% below the reasonably expected peak as determined by the July 1987 l aerial survey (igendix E itam 20). The results for Region 1 (enti.ro EPZ) and l Scenario 1 (smner keekend, mid-day, good unther): l Percent Difference l In Beach Area Pertnnt Difference in UTE l Population Relative Relative to tat for the Paak l to the Peak value UTE Value of Beach Ama Porulation l l 0 (peak 7:40 0.0 l -20 7:05 -7.6 l -40 6:35 -14.1 l -60 6:10 -19.6 1
,. ) 10-3 Rev. 2 1
l
I-l mis study shows that fer evacuation situatiens where the critical path j population (i.e. , the last popalation to leave the EPZ) originate their trips l frtrn the beach area, the ETE is reduced in percent by about one third the pertent l reduction in bcech population over the indicated range. l Varvino Permanent Population to 1990 Proiection l As discussed in Section 2 the CTE is based upon 1986 EPZ Permnent l Resident Population Estimtes. We 1990 EPZ Permnent Resident Population l Projections are 4% higher than the 1986 projections. A sensitivity test was L l conducted to evaluate whether this additional population would have a sterial l effect en the ETE. L l 1 l We IDWEV nodel was executed for Region 1 (entire EPZ) and for all 10 ! l scenarios. l l o it was assu2Ed that non-beach EIDS transient and GUploynent levels in l 1990 wre thosa of 1986. Deach area transient and employment levels l were those of 1987. l I l o With these data available, the input streams for the IDWEV nodel wre l nodified to represent the estt:ated 1990 resident population. l l o Since the incrunental number of residents is only about 4 percent, it l was assunod that there would be no eterial difference in evacuation l l routing pat + m . l W e CTE for each scenario is presentea belows i 1986 Resident 1990 Resident Scenario Population (Est. ) Population (Proi. ) 1 7:35 7:35 , 2 9:35 9:30 3 7:15 7:15 4 9:10 9:10 5 5:35 5:35 6 7:05 7:05 7 7:55 7:55 8 5:15 5:05 9 6:55 6:55 10 7:05 7:00 10-4 Rev. 2 i
i j- The msults of th:s3 canputations with IDYNEV using projected rusidential
}. population esti:tates ~fer 1990 indicate that there wuld be no naterial l
'y l . dif ferunces f rtrn the 1986 CTE. Most ETE are unchanged; the naxinum difference is ;
i l' 10 minutes. hhile the number of trips increased slightly, the most pronounced l increases in population occured in those comunities that wre not serviced by ; s l cricital evacuation paths. In ' f act, the -decline in the Portsnouth population -
,l contributed to scme saall reduction in erE fer a few scenarios, mus, these crE j 1
l presented previously, based upon 1986 represent current c::n:11tions. ! i l' 1:mmilate General Frercancy dth an Ortier to Nacuate prEi We have explored the extreme case of an "inviediate" General Dnergency (GE) l wherein the initial notification of the public contains an CTE. The results of l these sensitivity tests are ccanpared with the results obtained using the Planning l t
} Basis where there is 25 minutes between initial notification and the ore i ETE to Nacuate the EPZ l l
73 3 '
") Scenarios:
Recion 1 1 1 Racion 5 1 ) Reaion 9 1 1 Planning Msis 6:15 7:10 6:15 6:10 5:15 4:50 Intediate GE 6:40 .7:30 6:40 6:40 5:30 5:15 ' ETE to Evacuate the Two-Mile Area Recien 1 Recion 5 Recion 9 ' Scenarios: 1 2 1 2 1 J Planning Msis 5:50 5:40 -5:50 5:40 4:50 4i35 Intnediate GE 6:20 6:00 6:20 5:50 5:10 4:55 As indicated above, the effect of an Instediate General Diergency is to extend the crE up to 20-30 minutes, relative to the Urt calculated for the stated Planning Basis. ~ f . .
'. v( ) 10-5 Rev. 2
]
i
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- _ , , . . .-_m.- y ___ , . . __ , , m.
( These results are consistent with cur understarxiing cf the traffic envirement Icr Scenarios 1 and 3. Congestion occurs alnest i: mediately in the i teach arms after evacuation begins, either due to a boach closure recomendation
} cr the issuance of an Ocder to Evacuate. "hus, any delay at the outset (i.e.,
loss of the "ha2d-start" postulated by the Planning Msis) will translate into a ecmensurate increase in ETE, particularly within the two-mile arm. Slower Rates of Accident Escalation l Any increase in the head-start affcxded beach-arm evacuees due to a j lengthening of the period between the beach closure reu.wadations and the Order to Evacuate, will decrease the LTE accordingly. A series of sensitivity tests was perfomed to quantify these effects. Specifically, the trip generation distributions were nodified as follcuss o The trip generation distributions for all beach area centroids (representing the populace at .the beaches) were unchanged. That is, the distribations used for the Planning Basis, which represented the l- beach areas being closed at the initial amargency classification level l (Site Area Emergency) and followed by evacuation, were Istained. o 'Ihe rum 12ung trip generation distributions wru nodified to reflect the following population responses:
- IVanty-five percent of this population would evacuate prior to the issuance of the Order to Evacuate, in acccId with the applicable distribution describing the event, " Ready to Evacuate."
'Ihe rumining 75 percent will prepare for evacuation, as detemined for the Planning Msis, but will await the Order fer Evacuate before starting the evacuation trip.
l 'Ihree rates of accident escalation, in addition to that of the Planning l Bssis, wre studied for the case rtpresented by Scenario 1 (surer weekend) and Region 1 (entire EPZ ordered to evacuate). Associated with these three rates are 10-6 Rev. 2
(.' f
! i varying elcpsed tires bet een the beacn closum m-;wmdation and the Orcer to D.'acuate, as follcws: i
- ,
o M nty-five Minutes (used as the Planning &=tsis) o 5e Hour and Five Minutes o % Hours and Five Minutes o Two Hours and Fifty Minutes The following table pmsents the msults generatM by the IDYNEV nodel. Elapsed Tinn frun LTE fer Evacuation frun Within the i
'l the Beach Closuru to Indicated Amas around the Seabrook , the (Nder to Evacuate Station, Refemnced to the Order to Evacuate 2 nulos 5 miles 10 miles EPZ l 0:25 (Planning Basis) 6:25 6:45 7:05 7:05 l 1:05 5:40 6:00 6:20 6:25 l 2:05 4:10 4:50 4:55 4:55 l 2:50 3:30 3:50 4:20 4:45 b, l As indicated, the longer the elapsed tine is between the beach closum and the Order to Evacuate, the 1cwer the associated ETE. This sensitivity is nest l pronounced over the first three hours. During this tine frane them is xcughly l one minute of reduction in ETE for every minute of incmase in elapsed tine frun j the SAE to the Order to Evacuate.
As this elapsed tine increases beyond 2:50, it is likely that the LTE will settle dcwn to apprcxinately 3:25. mis esti:nate is Msed on the facts that i nebers of nest households will be assembled and prepared to evacuate at the Order to Evacuate, that the transients and 25 parcent of all others will have Jeft the EPZ, and that the reaining population within the EPZ will be scmewhat > less than that for Scenario 8. ! j I 1 v 1 10-7 Rev. 2
j Dvacuee Mobi.li-ation l l Sensitivity runs Wem conducted using the IDETV nodel to stucy the J - effects cf 31cwr 2vacuee nobilization tim following the Order to Dracuate. l Rese runs extended the trip generation process by 40 minutes for Scenario 5 l (sumer, midaeek, mid-day, good weather) and Regions 1, 5 and 9 (evacuation of
-l full 10, 5, and 2 mile amas, respectively). 21s scenario was chosen because it l accounts for beach, transients and Eruployee populations. De msults of this l study indicate that wilile them am scme differences in the internal distribution l of evacuation tim, there is no overall impset on the UIT.
l Mis result would be expected because the evacuation network is saturated l (i.e., links in the network experience traffic desnd that exceed roadway l capacity throughout the course of the evacuation). While saturated conditions l exist, extending the trip generation tino has little or no influence on the total
- l time requimd to service the demnd, as long as the extended trip generation tine l1s naterially less than the eventual evacuation time. Since the extended l nobilization time in the sensitivity run was under 5 hours, wilich was wil telcw l the UIT for the strrer scenarios, the extension of the trip generation process l did not effect the ETE. '
l l Tine to Activate TPs l l As discussed in Section 7, the CITs reflect the expected staffing rate of l the 'ICPs. A sensitivity run was done to evaluate the net effects of traffic jcontrol for Region 1 (Elntim EPZ), Scenario 1 (sumar weekend, midday, good l weather) and for Scenario 5 (off-season, mid-week, mid-day, good weather). Se l results for the individual cases azu: 10-S Rev. 2
r, L~ [ UTE Results lCASEDESCRIPr!ON Scenario _1 Scenario 5 :
! 1 l lA. All traffic guides are 7:35 5:40
.l at the 'ICPs at the start i l of teach evacuation i l
l B. Staged arrival of traffic 7:40 5:35 ; l guides at 'ICPs. (Using l nobilization described , l in Section 7) I l lC. tb 'ICPs are mnned 9:00 6:30 ; l throughout the j evacuation l
- l. External Shadcw Evacuation Tire Estimtes l
l Additional sensitivity tests were conducted to assess the impact on the l ETE of anticipated voluntary evacuation by persons outside the EPZ up to a f ^') v l distance of 20 miles fmn Seabrook.. Estinates of surmer population in this arua l were obtained finn State and Federal agencies. Runs were conducted for Region 1, l Scenario 1, which assu:xd a 20% unifom rate of voluntary evacuation. 'Ihis study i showed that voluntary evacuation in this arm, up to a 20% level, would not l influence the ETE for those evacuating frun within the CTE. l l Effect of Rcad Impedinents l . l A sensitivity study was done to evaluate the effect of ten road l impedinents on a Rogion 1, Scenario 1 evacuation. 'Ihe number 10 represents the l number of autcr:cbile accidents that would be anticipated tased on vehicles miles
- j. of travel during an evacuation. (See ciiscussion in Section 12.) 'Ihis study also l used the overly conservative assumption that all accidents resulted in road l LWances. The results shcw that impedances of one to two hours in duration
] resulted in an ETE increase of 0 - 10 minutes. Impedances of two to three hours l in duration resulted in an ETE increase of 30 - 60 minutes. !bte that the ETE is g
if 10-9 Rev. 2
i not extenced the sane arount as the longest i: pccimnt since traffic is free to l redistribute on altemative outlound routes. If one route is experiencing sme j loss of capacity. Michway Dmrovments In Section 3, five candidate highway Lmprovments win described. Of these, it was concluded that two of thm would significantly reduce the ETE for sumer scenarios, mese . conclusions wem drawn fmn the msults obtained fmn a series of sensitivity tests condacted for Scenario 1 (cu:mer weekend) and Region 1 (entire EPZ): EI'E for Dracuation fmn Within the Indicated Amas around the Seabrook Station, Refemnced to the Order to Evacuate _HJgbway Impru vments 2 Miles 5 Miles 10 Miles EPZ Planning Basis 5:50 6:10 6:15 6:15 Candidates 1 and 2: Widen Routes 286 & 51 3:40 5:15 5:40 6:15 All 5 Candidates 3:40 4:15 5:40 5:50 Note that highway improvement Candidates 1 and 2 provide a two-hour (37 percent) reduction in ETE for those evacuating fran within two miles of Seabrook Station, including Hanpton and Seabrook beaches. These improswents also afford a one-hour (15 percent) mduction in ETE for those evacuating fmn within a five-mile radius of the Station. A lesser reduction in EI'E (35 minutes, 10 percent) is realized by those evacuating fran within 10 miles of the Station. Additional highmy impro'.wents provide increrental benefits primrily to those within five miles of the Station; here, the reduction in CI'E, relative to the Planning Basis ETE, is alnest 2 hours (30 percent), double the reduction provided by Candidates 1 and 2. mese additional highway improvmonts would not substantially benefit people outside the 5-mile area. We have not identified 10-10 Rev. 2 i
1 wnich of candidate impm.wents 3, .i and/cr 5 provide these incronental reductions in ETE. ' z 'Y i i . ;
~' i Patterns of Traf fic Concestion durino Nacuation fReci m 1. Scenarios 1 and 5) i rigures 10-2a through 10-2d illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion I which arise for the case wtien the entire EPZ is ordered to evacuate (Region 1) on i a sumer weekend day at the time when the beach area population is at capacity I (Scenario 1). ;
Traffic congestion, as the tem is used here, is defined as Iavel of-i
-l Service F. Ms tem is defined in the 1985 Highway capacity Manual, as foll:ws: ,
l [ o Iavel-of-Service F is used to define forced or breakdwn flow. TMs condition exists wherever the amount of traffic approaching a point , exceeds the anount which can traverse the point. Queues fem behind . such locations. Operations within the queue are characterized by
] '\ >
stop-and-go waves, and they are extr eely unstable. Vehicles may progress at reasonable speeds for several hundred feet or nore, then be required to stop in a cyclic fashion. Iavel-of-Service r is used to describe the operating conditions within the queue, as well as the point of the breakdown. It should be noted, however, that in neny cases operating conditions of vehicles or pedestrians discharged from ' the queue may be quite good. Nevertheless, it is the poin t at which arrival flow exceeds discharge flow which causes the queue to fem, and Level-of-Service F is an appropriate designation for such points. - l This definition is general and conceptual in nature, and applies prinarily to unintern:pted flow. Iavels of service for interrupted flow facilities vary widely in tems of both the user's perception of service quality and the , operational variables used to describe it. l All highway " links" wtiich experience Level-of-Service F are delineated in the Figures by a thich dark line. All others are lightly indicated.
'() 10-11 Rev. 2 s
, . . _ . ,, .wm-- v -- *~ "
r , i i l As expexi, for Region 1, Scenario 1, traffic congestion develops rapidly
} (see Figure 10-2a) within the beach areas and along the najor beach egress l routes. Congestion spreads shortly afterwards to the major population centers j (ktesbury, F.xeter, Kimpton, Merrirac, !L% port, Portsnouth and Seabrook) and along the major egress routes (Rts. 51, 110, 107, 108, 1, 151, 101 and M). At 3:30, Amesbury, Exeter and Merrirac have essentially cleared wttile the beach areas and the other population centers rurain congested. Hampton and Ihturyport ] 'lclearby5:30. '
i Gradually, the congestion attenuates. At 5:30, all of Massachusetts is l clear of congestion. We evacuation of Seabrook Beach is delayed by the joining of beech area traffic with inland traffic at points where Route 286 meets Route 1 and Main Street. Hampton Beach traffic naves west (along Route 51) and l north (along Route 1A). ne access roads leading to I-95 nonhbound in Portsmouth rumins congested throughout the evacuation process. Figures 10-3a through 10-3c illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion which arise for the case wtien the entire EPZ is ordered to evacuate (Region 1) on a midweek day outside the tourist season, at a tine wtien mploynent is at a peak (Scenario 5). l We pattern for this case differs frun the previous one, in that l congestion develops rapidly within population (and employment) centers, rather l than in the beach areas. With the exception of Exeter (which clers within 3 l hours due to the many egress routes available), congestion prevails in these l centers for over 3 hours. Amesbury, Exeter, Hampton and Merrinac are clear l within 4 hours; Sebrook clears shortly thereafter th% port is alnest clear l by 5 hours wttile Portsnouth ranins congested until the end of the evacuation l process,asbefore. 10-12 Rev. 2
g-' ' '
;
n . i Distribation ef Poculation and Vehicles s t 6 ( 1
') We NRC/FC% guidelines in NURIC 0654 roccrmand -that the distribution cf l
~-
- population ;see Section ; 2 and 5 for source data) and of vehicles within the l Diergency Planning Zone (EPZ) be pmsented in the format of Polar Sectors. -l Figures '10-5 through 10-14 present this information for the four (4) basic set of {
scenarios considered, stratified by: i ', o Permanent' Residents P o D91oyeses who Live Outside the EPZ > [ o Transients o %tal Population i he Figures are identifird belos: .. Descriotion Eppulation Vehicles Permanent Residents 10-4 10-9 Scenarios 1 and 2 10-5 a,b,c 10-10 a,b,c f:\"N) V Scenarios 3 and 4 Scenarios 5,6,7 10-6 a,b,c 10-11 a,b,e
'10-7 a,b,c 10-12 a,b,c Scenarios 0,9,10 10-7b, 10-9a,b 10-13b, 10-13a,b
. It must be m phasized that this femat is for pmsantation purposes, only. To define the spatial distribution of traffic demand at a higher ' level of-l_ resolution a total of 153 Origin Nodes (i.e. , centroids) were created. Each represents an area (or " Zone") within a ccumunity. We traffic danands at all such centroids are presented in Appendix M. he locations of these controids are-shown in Figure 1-3.
Sunmary of Evacuation Time Analysis A sunmary of evacuation times is presented in Tables 10-10, which are presented in the fomat Inccumanded in Appendix 4 of NURIE 0654. W e analyses of Confi.rmation Tine and of the CTE for Special Population segnants are presented in l Sections 12and11,respectively. 7s
- . C) 10-13 Rev. 2 i
l b I
me estinates of 1986 Pernanent Resident and Vehicle Pcpalation are those of Table 1-1. These town estinates wre aggregated to ferm ERPA estimates and then Region - estinates. The transient population includes all transients -- tourists, teach area day-trippers and spicyees who live outside the EPZ. These estinntes wre presented in Sections 2 and 5. l The column labele INacuation Capeity Per Hour for each region was ascerta.ined by aggregating the highway capacities of all outward-bound roads which pierce the region's outer boundary. Here, we have mployed the capacity estirates associatM with level of Service F conditions, wttich is esti2nated at 85 percent of the IOS E values obtainod frtrn the 1985 Righway Capacity Manual.
'Ihe capacities given represent clear weather conditions. These capacities aIn reduced by 20 percent for rain and 25 percent for snow. It is assultad that all roads are pasable and that the recanonded traffic control tactics are in leffect.
l mese estinates of available capacity nay overstate the actual accessible l capacity. Specifically, the high capacities offered by the Interstate Highways (I-95, I-495) cannot be fully utilized due to the limited number of entIy ranps within the EPZ and to the limited capacities of these ramps. Reference to Figures 10-2a through 10-3c indicate that these Interstate Highways are never congested, wttile nany entry ramps to these highways are congestod ever a period j of nnny hours. These entr!ss are not used in the calculation of LTE sinco they l represent only the potencial capacity and not the actual capacity utilized l during an EPZ evacuation. The estimated notification, preparation and response (i.e. trip-generation) tires which aru listed correspond to the 100th percentile of the indicated population. That is, these are the tinns associated with the cwnletion of the indicateJ process. The process itself (i.e., notification, preparation to evacuate, and deprting on the evacuation trip) is best represented as a continuous distribution (see Table 4-2) wttich numerically depicts the continuous nature of the process. 10-14 Rev. 2 l
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. 2he Evabuation Tine Estimates .'(ETE) are those presented in Table 10-8. In 3
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the! indicated?E ggigag (see Tablei10-2); the capacities and UTE figarts' are for' i
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( l O v , TAHIE 10-1 DESGIPI'IO3 OF EVACIIATIO3 SCD4ARIOS 1-10 Scenario Smson Day Tisre Wuther Ctzmmmts 1 Stamer Wmkervi Mid-<i3y Good Ihch arm population at cagacity. IhpI<rp5s are at 70 let. of mid-wmk in tomas with leuch arm :. 40 g n-t . in r est.iinity towis. Tourists til1 available smsonal armi overnight f aciIities, with half of tJm at tJe imch atuas. 2 Simmer W2ekerx3 Mid-day Sudderi As atxwe. Sialkm rain occurs with tech [quiation at. cagucity Itain concurrent with accickmt at SmbnxAc Stat. ion. 3 Sammer Mid-Wy2k Mid-day G.rsi IWcli arm arut to urist gquiation at 75 get. of cag oci t y. Ihployees are at 100 get. of mid-waek wxk f orm. 4 Stamer Mid-Waek Mid-day Strijen As above. Stxuai rain occurs. Pain 5 Of f-Smson Mid-Waek Mid-day Oxni Tourist. populat. ion at 50 gct.. of ym rly cagucity (i.e. facilit.ies witich ruinin egen the ent i r e ymr) . Ib 1 udi are t.ransients. Diplop*m at 100 gct. 6 Of f-Smson Mid-Wmk Midwisy Hain As alzwe, tut. for inclu:ent. (rain) watier. 7 Of f-Smson Mid-W3ek Mid-day Senw Conditions tin sarie as for Samiario 5 except tint t here is inclement untler (srKw). Evacums trust cimr driveways. 8 Of f-Smson Mid-Waek Evenirq Goul Tourist population at 50 pct. of ywrly cagucity. ib t uch ariu Wmkerri All day transients. D:plopms at. 25 gct. of mid-wmk, mid-<!ay. 9 Of f-Smson Mid-Wmk Evenirg Rain As airy.re, tot for inclutumt (rain) w3ather. Weeierri Al1 day 10 Of f-Smson Mid-Waek Evening Snow As above, tot for inclummt (srx.w) wmther. Evacuees : asst chur Wmkerri Al1 day driveways. 10-16 lov. 2
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' E"" 10-2 IDDfPTFICATION OF ' IRE SEABROOK STATION
( : DERGENCY PIANNTtG AREAS (ERPAi
;%.
Recion- Smtial Extent 2 26 Downwind Sector 1 'Ib EPZ bdry. A-G Entire EPZ j. 5 ,-
- 'Ib Five Miles A,B,C,D E, ESE-6- 'Ib Five Miles A, D N, INE, IE ENE, E
'Ib Five Miles t
7 A, C WNW 8 'Ib Five Miles A, B SE, SSE, S, SSW 7 9 'Ib Two Miles A Entire Two-Mile Region 9 'Ib Five Miles A ESE 10 Beach Areas Portions Beach Areas A,B,D,E,G 11- 'Ib EPZ Edry. A,B,C,D,G NNE, NE, ENE 12 'Ib EPZ bity. A,B,C,D,F WNW
- D 13 'Ib EPZ brdy. . A-E SE, SSE, S, SSW
. . 14 'Ib Five Miles A,B,C W, SW, WSW 15 'Ib Five Miles . A,C,D IM, INW 16 'Ib EPZ b:iry. A-F W, SW, WSW 17 Ib EPZ bdry. A-D,F,G NW, NNW, N 10-17 Rev. 2' fh Y <
+ , . _ . . . _ ._. - , - . _ - . . . . _ . _ , . _ , . . , . . . .
? TABLE 10-2 L IDDRIFICATION OF "HE SEABROOK STATION EXERGDCY PIANNTIG AREAS /ERPA) (cont.) (1) All beach areas are alwevs empletely evacuatM in Scenarios 1-4, l including those outside the Region ordered to evacuate. l (2) For Regions (5, 6, 7, 8, 14 and 15) that extend to 5 miles frm l' Seabrook Station, it is assumM that 50% of the population that is l located outside the Region but within 5 miles of Seabrook Station, l will voluntarily evacuate. Furthen:cru, 25% of the population l located outside these Regions and between 5 miles fmn Seabrook l Station and the EPZ boundary, will voluntarily evacuate. For Regions l (11, 12, 13, 16 t.nd 17) that extend to the EPZ boundary, it is l assumed that 50% of the EPZ population outside these Regions will l voluntarily evacuate. Finally, it is assumed that when Region 9 and l 10 are evacuatM, 25% of the other EPZ population will voluntarily l evacuate. (3) he outer boundaries of the Regions are generally tcwn boundaries which extend, scriewhat, beyond the indicated distances fmn Seabrook Station. Sus , for each of these regions, the indicated spatial extent is an aontrximation and should not be interpreted literally. l (4) Regions 2, 3 and 4 have been superseded by Region 11, 12 and 13. i l 10-18 Rev. 2 o)l l l
@1 ~.. an: ith ,;_ ^ Ji;5 &; ,. TAM T 10-3
,-s COMMITIES Irf TOED WININ EACH ERPA
.;
- M Ccamunities Cancrisins Indicated ERPA A Hampton Falls, Seabrook, Hampton Beach t
l. l, B- Amesbury, Salisbury C Kensington, South Hampton D- Hampton, tbrth Hampton E Marrimac, thL%tury, !Wport, West ikubury F Brentwood, East Ydngston, Exeter, Kingston, Newfields, Newton G- Greenland, New Castle, Portsmouth, Rp, Stratham o 10-19 Rev. 2 O
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j 1 NEE 10-4 1
- ESI'IMPLTED TIMES (IRS.: MIN. ) 10 EVM11ptTE HEM WI1111N
- _ ,2 MIIES OF SEAHHO[E STATI(N AFTER '11E GUXR 'IO EVACUATE HEM ' HIE IPOICA'HD RfCICNS, FtR 'I1E
- IFOIVIDUAL EVACUATICM SCENARIOS Region S nario 1 5 6 7- 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 7
- 05 6:30 6:30 5:45 6:00 5:45 5:40 7:00 6:45 6:45 6:00 6:30 6:45 7:00 2 9:05 8:25 8:25 7:35 7:40 7:35 7:20 8:55 8:45 8:40 7:40 8:25 8:40 9:05 4 3 5:55 5:10 4:45 4:35 5:10 4:35 4:25 5:35 5:25 5:10 5:10 4:45 5:15 5:55 4 7:35 6:40 6:35 '5:35 6:35 5:35 5:35- 7:IS 7:10 6:50 6:35 6:55 6:40- 7:35 1 5 4:40 4:25 3:55 3:55 4:25 3:55 4:35 4:35 4:25 4:25 3:55 4:30 4:40 6 5:20 5:25 4:25 4:25 5:25 4:25 5:15 5:25 j 5:20 5:25 4:25 5:20 5:25 7 5:55 5:55 5:00 5:00 5:55 5:00 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:00 5:55 5:40 8 3:40 3:30 3:30 -3:30 3:25 3:30 3:40 3:30 3:40 3:30
~
3:30 3:40' 3:40 9 4:35 4:25 3:30 3:30 4:25 3:25 4:25 4:25 4:40 4:25 3:30 4:35 4:25 10 4:55 4:55 4:35 4:35 4:55 4:35. 4:55 4:55 4:55 -4:55 4:35 t- '4:55 4:55 1 3 10-20 Hev. 2 I, l~ . m.y-r-
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'IMME 10-5 ESTIMPMD TIMES (IRS.: MIN.) "IO EVACIRTE HOf W1'ININ 5 MIIES OF SEAIBOCE STATIOi AFIIR 'I1E ORDER 'IO '
EVACIATE HOf 'I1E IJOICATED HIGIO45, KR -INE If0IVIDERL EVACIRTIOf SCENARIOS Hegion Scenario 1 5' 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -. 17-1 7:30 6:45 6:45 6:05 6:05 6:05 6:00 7:05 7:00 7:00 6:10 6:45 7:00 7:20-2 9:30 8:45 8:45 8:00 8:00 8:00 7:40 9:05 9:00 9:05 8:00 8:45 9:00 9:30 3 6:30 5:10 5:10 5:05 5:10 5:05 .5:00 6:30 5:35 5:30 5:10 5:10 5:40 6:30 4 8:00 7:00 7:00 6:20- 6:45 6:20 6:15 7:40 7:15- 7:10 6:50 7:00 7:30 8:00 5 4:40 4:30 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:00 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:30 3:55 4:35 -4:40 6 5:35 5:30 4:55 4:55 5:30 4:55 5:30- 5:35 5:30 -5:30 4:55 5:30 5:35 7 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 8 4:25 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 4:25 3:40 3:55 3:40 3:35 3:55 4:25 9 5:30 4:25 3:55 3:55 4:25 3:55 5:30 4:25 4:40 4:25 3:55 4:50 5:30 10 5:25 5:05 5:00 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:25 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:25 5:25 10-21 Hev. 2-
. - - - = .
,~ _
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./ .A ] '%Y TABLE 10-6 ESTIMMIYD TIMES (IRS.: MIN.) 'IO TIRCUME FT4CM WMHIN 10 MIIES OF SEABROOK SIATION APITR 'ITE GDER 'IO EV. ACHKit E104 'IIIE IM)ICKIID REIIIWS, Em "I1E HUIVIDUAL EVACIRTICM SCENARIOS Region Scenario 1 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15- 16 17 1 7:30 7:00 7:00 6:10 7:00 6:10 6:05 7:10 7:00 7:10 6:15 7:00 7:10 7:30 2 9:35 9:00 9:00 8:05 8:05 8:05 8:00 9:10 9:00 9:10 8:05 9:00 9:10~ 9:30-3 7:05 5:35 5:35 5:25 5:30 5:20 5:10 7:05 6:05 6:00 5:30 5:35 6:05 7:05-4 9:00 7:20 7:20 6:45 7:00 6:45 6:30 8:55 7:45 7:45 7:00 7:25 7:55 8:50 5 5:10 4:35 4:05 4:00 4:35 4:00 5:10 4:55 5:00 4:35 4:05 5:00 5:10 6 6:25 5:40 5:00 5:00 5:35 5:00 6:25 5:40 6:00 5:40 5:00 6:00 6:25 7 7:10 6:05 6:00 6:00 6:00 6:00 7:05 6:40 6:40 6:05 6:00 7:10 7:05 8 5:05 3:55 3:55 3:45 3:55 3:45 5:05 4:05 4:00 3:55 3:55 4:10 5:05 9 6:40 4:40 4:40- 4:00 4:30 4:00 6:40 5:20 5:15 4:30 4:40 5:25 6:40 10 7:00 5:35 5:35 5:10 5:25 5:10 7:05 5:55 5:55 5:05 5:35 6:00 7:05 10-22 Rev. 2
_, m~--- r:
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1NME 10-7
-. ESTIMATED TIMES (IRS. : MIN. ) 10 EVACIIATE EMM -
~
WITIIN TE SEAERKE STATKN EPZ APIYR TE GtDER 2 10 EVAC 11 ATE HEM TE If01CNIYD REGIO 45, Em TE It0IVIDLRL EVACUATIGi SCENARIOS Hegion S nario 1 5 6 '7 8 9 10 11 12' 13 14 15 16 - 17 1 7:35 7:05 7:05 6:30 7:05 6:30 6:15 7:30 7:05 7:30 6:30 7:05 7:30 7:35 2 9:35 9:05 9:05 8:30 8:30 8:30 8:05 9:15 9:05 9:30 8:30 9:05 9:30 9:35 3 7:15 5:40 5:40 5:30 5:40 5:30 5:15 7:15 6:10 6:05 5:30 5:40 6:10 7:15 4 9:10 7:30 7:30 6:55 7:05 6:55 6:3$ 9:10 8:00 8:00 7:00 7:30 8:05 9:10~ 5 5:35 '4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35' 4:05 5:35 4:55 5:00 .4:35 4:05 5:00 5:35 6 7:05 5:40 5:00 '5:00 5:35 5:00 7:05 5:40 6:00 5:40 5:00 6:00 7:05 7 7:55 6:05 6:00 6:00 6:00 6:00~ 7:55 6:40 6:40 6:05 6:00 7:10 7:55 8 5:15 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 3:55 5:10 4:10 4:05 3:55 3:55 4:10 5:15 9 6:55 4:45 4:45 4:00 4:30 4:00 6:55 5:30 5:25 4:30 4:45 5:25- 6:55 10 7:05 5:55 5:55 5:10 5:25 5:10 7:05 5:55 5:55 5:05 5:55. -6:00 - 7:05-10-23 Hev. 2 L__- __._ _ .=-..__ _ _ _ _ ...- _ . -- - - - - - - - - - - ----- - - - - - " - ~ - - - - - - - - ~ - - - ~ ~ ~
_7 .- .,_ - j'% > ~, ~' l j- N) j TABIE 10-8 ESI'IMNIM) TIMES (IIRS. : MIN. ) 10 EVACUATE Elm WI'lllIN 'lllE N'ICIATil) 4 MIFA AIMXfr "I1E SEAIRM SI'ATION AFTER 11E GlDER 'IO EVACUA'IE Elm 11E INDICATED RFIllONS, 111111E II0lVIDUAL EVACUATION SCD3ARIOS Region Scenario 1 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 7:35 7:0G 7:00 5:45 6:10 5:45 6:00 7:30 7:00 7:05 6:10 7:00 7:10 7:35 2 9:35 8:50 8:50 7:35 8:00 7:35 7:45 9:15 9:00 9:05 8:00 8:50 9:10 9:35 3 7:15 5:30 5:30 5:00 5:15 5:00 5:00 7:15 6:00 5:55 5:15 5:30 6:00 7:15 4 9:10 7:00 7:00 6:10 6:45 6:10 6:05 9:10 7:55 7:30 7:00 7:00 8:05 9:10 5 5:35 4:30 4:00 3:55 4:30 3:45- 5:35 4:40 5:00 4:30 4:00 5:00 5:35 6 7:05 5:35 4:25 4:25 5:30 4:25 7:05 5:35 6:00 5:35 4:25 6:00 7:05 7 7:55 6:00 5:10 5:10 6:00 5:00 7:55' 6:40 6:40 6:00 5:10 7:10 7:55 8 5:15 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:10 3:55 4:00 3:35 3:40 4:10 5:15 9 6:55 4:25 4:15 3:40 4:25 3:35 6:55 5:05 4:55 4:25 4:15 5:25- 6:55 10 7:05 5:15 5:15 .4:35 5:05 4:30 7:05 5:35 5:25 5:05 5:15 6:00 7:05 10-24 Itev. 2
- _. - -- . . -. - . . - - _- - - .- + _:- - -__ - _ -- . -_ - - _- -_ _
p TABLE 10-9
- ESTDOJED TDES (HRS. : MIN. ) 'IO LVACUNTE THE -
l("~' j' BEACH AREAS Di THE DOICATED 'IOWS, APTER THE ORDER 'IO EVACUATE THE D01VIDUAL REION, ER SCDDRIO _1 (SUMMER hTIKDO)
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'IRAFFIC CCH3ESTION PATTERNS NR REGION 1, l
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S ugD UE32) C7El t C No"E ***
. g;mo. . .a an.
N e o e e e matina to1ats We eE me ears d'!',ii., tota, eass : Wll2 , , D., i .. i, e-a tiaJ5 *
- t*2 ggi) , ,
23 is .co 0-1 l'J19 i,su ** .ww S 3.. aus e-s uw' OETAIL OF w 3.e. ** se..a 1 MILE R]NG s., ve, e- r m sm 74 Z:ss 94 *au. 64 ge s, t>-9 173 3 10-43 ( .... e. n ., .
-u e,
h,2
b e FIGURE 10-6C' SCENARIOS 3.AND 4: SIMER WEDMY i
= )
\ 'IUIAL POPUIATICE CHiis GED N, EED NNW NNE 4 **'
1224 *ugs: nu ,,,, ou 9*, 1895
,una isz, en \ s,e NE us '" +,a 3'" am na n, 314 9 794 4 ,,
144 j%de E 324: an E www we iris nr. 3
, 1263 1844 727 8" 93 9 3:44 tro? ,
SS4 68 7 8 y 640 g 3713 g
- m. ,
let 9 3* N 0 354 37 7I # 373 .
';'
" M mW au ,n>
[
.. m, .., ,,, ,,, ,,,
,,. m" .
- . . . . , , , . E ano ,
- saa -
,u
,1839 j i 2n a ggg e
{ ,
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3., 3... n, , l 1791 ,
,,i.
852' isie wa 39 WSW ana , e
, C3g) 3rm aos
,,, ESE g
,na use
, ,,,, ,,,, 4
\
1.' M32 0 ser: atts ,,,- , I?n2 e317 ' r3rs um 8 LIII E
..ei tra w ,
i E!) CED ! ILM SSW '"
,,, j CE3D 6 OXS l l
CED + i ipg' ,",geg = t=
. gages a nots ape N
m^ e s e n e Na"* 'O'*5 me .atas .,$'fra tots ars W,'lg W .. eE
, g e-. on e-i oss i-a run r'e s 13 rne, eo ease.
..,,e 3.. x ,,, e.. nse. S 4 ..... e- . aats e eo DETAIL OF
- w. us.as ! MILE RING nei. +> nmr 34 e se17 M 99 tP 84 44e94 69 f f94 S1 s.ie seem e-J i seal 194 P F eg1 949{ 7151)$
; 10-44 Rev. 2
.g..- - - . , - , ,_ . , . . , , , . , , , . - . . , - ,,-,..s
e, - i-. l 1 l l
;
FIGURE 10-7A (xg SCENARIOS 5, 6 AND 7: WINTER MIDWEEK, MIDQAY 1 bl- EMPIOYEES WHO LIVE OUISIDE 'INE EPZ l CalD DED N CIED
- ns.
'NNW NNE
.., i.a
, Ma 23 eu ist C'ID a, i,, CH!D NW in NE
., riv = -
n
*= n -
.. a ,
d 3aJ 4 3E 82'
. 11 C
'" ENE u
.a 'a e a in me n e , -
a ' e a , is:
,, in ,
- e s ne *
=
,, a i
e,n ,, a j
; n r mv ,, , ,
, , , ,, I n a u , e , , , , , ,
E CSD se n.
*ai ai ,, , e
- = , e tue in # 83 im 8
.i m a 3. :) .i ,
a., s m use ne ur * ,
,q, 3.? g wSW *=
- in . ESE C3D (ZID - *u vn ria .
/
j
\ 49 i .. u m 0 av ** ,
S
'" SE
' 9s n .
i, l UED ~ CE \ n. . L SSW .,, M' SSE l n l OIID S e l UE-l C""] Me"m"!M' ""*" L 1-
.g;m ..
l N r e e e
% .AflDN TOTALS '
Wn *E see. ass M%e. tofd6 sats .Wll2 ,
. . +. 1,
'> m ** 'm ,
- v. , e u., ar, e, n
. ,w e-. ees- S 4 is ts ++ a.m DETAIL OF w we e-. . ism i MILE RING
... nn . .....
P.. {2gj H IST). e-e 73B 7 &* 9 *19t 4=19 J2#9 #~ a F1M in g e! 99 5e 94PI ?1999
~
~
10-45 Rev. 2
. . . . ~ - .
(
;
f' FIGURE 10-7B fl SCD&RIOS 5-10: WINIUt 'IRANSIDff POPUIATION X.} C!El CE) N , M NNW ,, NNE, e is 79 CED e a NV w NE i, e e , u e - e e u e e ta CE a in e C!D WNW e " i, e ENE e e e ama n , 7 82 e e as na m e e e n , e ,eo e, e e , e e
- CED W e o e e e e e m. a e e e e e e e , , E CI] ,
e vi e 4 72 e
,,- e,n ,
e
' " e e e .i 3 s
*3 e it 3 iu ,
as e e wsw ' 52 3 , ESE c c} cg-) m a e
.;r- si e ==
=. s n
.t a e o e
$ '8
* ' e 5 SE s
e e CID , Q s . e SSW e _ SSE 8 CIE3 CI] C3D i i Me".".t5f ***'""
. p p g.o. . .=: =
N e e a _ e . P(MLafinN TOT AL S E see estas Mf,se, tota se n h @llg, , ,
'n = *' = . , e f.? e 273 61 ewt u, es *. sies S 44 in ** nm DETAIL OF w se ** im 1 MILE R]NG 4S FIS 8" I 8938
*9 19 7 M 81M 94 9?* 8"9 WD4 4+'S t?? 9*e 454 g.tpf M4 M' T e f tf
( 10-46 Rev. 2
FIGURE 10-7c (y SCMARIOS 5, 6 AND 7: WINTER MIDWEEK, V MIDDAY 'IUTAL K)PUIATIm I unt) [BC N, OBE i NNW
*n n
ed NN.E 3,,, nm - E 993 LS2e NW vs NE
%, me vi ,,, . , , ,
38'l 832 4 31 s3 2eFL 7tt gg 14 1415 CED 5)* isee % CED WNW sus '92 aus ENE su era a a asm 7,e ,
- 404 8
$94 III g Mi g len g e
in av
, , , , sus ,
as , .. 19 43 1 at em CED W . iie. 3p in z., is, ire l 35' me ** e I e e e e , , , E [ID
%n 'ne <z: ?
- is, s 6473 0 m eis ee 88' 3. , .
, "' nu N 2* ' m a
gy,9 4 137 17st gag int ,
'"8 e WSW maar e
ESE g j (% I OEe) ... ime age
" ras (w.) s<a sees au en e Lett ete atM e a
S SE use 3m 2?3 ga CID taa CIZD l%24 N
'" SSE SSW .,s.
tm S aca cum r , ,*g' ,=,tg =a= gy;-mo. . = N a 2 e. ! is e i ecriAntioss voiss slee ea.st lMb 10faL satl @,',% l e., .. ... .. e, ,4 ,,e 21
.4
,., , ,u, s-,
- w. un e- . men S
.- ..e .. **'" DETAIL OF s-e 2.. n e-a non 1 MILE R]NG 1 <. see., +o .een I 's nore es to mes l
e -* sees ** neem
- j. .-4 e : .v e-is nyns j' .
m-r. ? .as u enr i reem ( 10-47 h2 l 1 \ l l l
h_ _
;
FIGURE 10-8A 7, SCD&RIOS 8, 9 AND 10: WINTER EVENIE AND WEEKEND EMPICYEES NHO LIVE OLTISIDE OF EPZ CID CCD N, CHED NNW NNE
, w. ..
n si
=
E 31 gg NW as gg
* . , i. is i r to
** is im 194 14 g
e 65 44 36 4 WNW is 't ENE
- ta te n i,
e as e se e4 #3 e e s a 33 ,,* ., e 174
- 32 ?
3 gg g
" ras i4 '
- i. si ies ,
"' 8 '
WSW as , ESE m l CE3 .a l'*
- e l, isa 358 t' I
us ses se - u e 1 ma . S ,, SE
*n is a CIiD , Q n e SSW
- u .
** SSE S
_ QL CID -' C23 c a e"t' J'.331' "*'
. g ;. g in.ie :.
N e e e a e W a fl0N 1014LS 8 ' ' see seas %'"ll@ J? nam tota sans , t-# ?a; e2 5.as *I ' g Pd ?93 9- 9 N
- w. .i . i.o S w an e-s i s' OETAIL OF M ai ** ne 1 MILE R]NG
... ... .o i .i M 449 FG W ed w9 e* edW 9- q e s ig 62 g 19e te-p? :4 '9 948f Flem I 10-48 Rev. 2 c .. w ,_ . _ . . _ , . , _ . . , , _ . , _- _ _ , , , , , , _ . - . . , - , , . ....-.4
FIGURE 10-8B (~\ SCENARIOS 8, 9 AND 10: WINTER LVENINF,
'V AND WEEKEND 'IUPAL POPUIATION 3!E 000 N 0 DD
'me
.NNW -
EDD
- ' , *NNE C!BD w i. x NW "'
NE
.azi . . , .:. en >
,,. wi .in ,
r?.e 3, _ se. . ei j
- )
- i is4 .
un .. I CED WNW ames in e. [3D I
- na tsn
** g i.a
% im _ jg, 42 74 20 4 646 6
~
* N *
,,, n uus nu e in n im '
i is3
,,iu,,',,, 22 at em ni I
CED W as an su sn us a. va um uu '" ns
- 1e e e , , E CID '
w 'M
,n
- 1 1
.. is, 1318 4 '
i av m '2" a. i '2' en e l ,,,'" ni, **' ,,, re ir.
'"5 '
- , ..n wu ,g u, in ,
l wsw '"' ' m , ESE g j l -- Egg .,,,, a** tu e i (n) sd
- .w, as teos sw , i i
1825 iris m e l uma .*** - 19 9 323 } S
.s , SE i i
=s
.n3 -
u , EE!D "' CED l 43 n l SSW a.., . SSE S CED CH!D l QDS l i i Me"m".!ll'8 "*' l . pp.ges. a - N \ l u' e l e i, e ramratina tot =s
,wEThe. ' W"
- me as tota ers Wlis
+,
.m
,l
- l s. 3 ip3 #-1 729ee
. a .. 3,u s
.. inse ++ .w
- DETAIL OF w is e.2 ** *== 1 MILE RING
.., ins. ea mee
>-. nier e-* =.e.i
.* mei *-a m.a.9
. 12. , , e- ii e ,
m<.r r.w. n*t inur f\ J 10-49 Rev. 2
e L FIGURF 10-9
'I
- p. PER!&NENI' RESIDENIS V (IN VEHICLES) m UEI] N Ei310
. .'u NNW , NNE 3,
a .., ase 9ae as
*.9e 33 g33 NV * .
NE sn are - ese ,, ,, ies i.e sa =
==
m. se E en se as CI]
**8 sa im ENE eues aas
* = n im e
s.. ' sae ** n "' tee '" ' 438 e g
= * =m, '" e i" ne :.
,, ,e
,, t n m
-I2!D w ., .ie in is. n u wi u im - , im e ie e e e e e e E CZD
.= se
. 7%
O' y
- e a9 am se . e m as is e = i.e ., ,
a ne mes se as as , in *** , WSW * ' e ESE gg3
, Ci30 ,sw um
.es =
m 4 m .a ue e
.., im l sea m
- 5 SE 33 g *:n "
g m - a SSW SSE g.g3 S g Gi30 8 I i [0 W
. ggig,ie s en.
N is e le , 8 e vtMICLEs T0f et.S a ,, go sm n W" 4E m'i'i
-. n. ... ,, *
- 3.,
u.. v.
",,,n
%. .9., e.. egg, 3 w vi. +.
DETAIL OF r3 I MILE RING
... s rs. e. , a,.
1
>-a s ei n a-o r es ,
. ..., e-4 ,se ,. l i
.-e. .sas e.se .nw l
., e . m. u. , .. 1 O 10-50 Rev. 2 l V 1 l
1 i l l 1
. , - . . . - . - .m . . . _ , . - . . . . . . _ - - - , - - - _ _ ,
FIGURE 10-10A o SCENARIOS 1 AND 2: SitEER WEEKEND INLAND i
= (.-) - POPUIATICN OF E!PIMEES M10 LIVE OUTSIDE 'IEE EPZ CID CIE) -
N ,, C2D NNW ~
... n et NNE. a
,, ai E .7 p NW .
+.e is " '
NE iw n a. 3 in " GD WNW m tu a
. u
*n as n is 4e CD ENE In o e ,
13 48 42 ,
, w , .. ,, '
e 8 a m ie as GD W * ' ' ' 28 1
- 8 " **
- 1* *
*w * *
- e E G C) u .\ ne e
a e we in u is t# q 'e ,, M e N **
- e
'" u <e e me .= ve
, .. a e WSW * ,
e Cl20 .. 3"* " ESE g 1
, i.: see w l- au ,
i is* l *%/ g, in u . gg t 3 i., i, *
*w i 3g s -
CDD a i., n, e GD ssw.,, SSE tuo s ' tno CED i; % ,=,m' = ui
.g g g,ggis ae l N i
8
- e is e vt MICt t1 10f aLS e e age me,43 ,g Ng, lef4L seJS jgM e ., s re e- . .,, '"
va m ea .u. '* *
?9 MI 9*1 , ,
' 4f
- i. . u,3 ... 3..L. s
. .ees ... ...
,4 .m. 4. .** DETAIL OF 4a p 11 1 8* F igi I MILE R]NG t4 41J #4 eye 64 67 +9 agog 9=e9 441 $*W 4Te eg.ge r JS A) 9497 o ge t c 10-51 Rev. 2 (m
, - - ~ . . . - - - . .
r : i l FIGURE 10-10B l 1
,fm. s SCD4ARIOs 1 Me 2: M9ER WEEKDO 'IRM4SIDff i O. mmmIm (ncumes arus m Dems)
- l
= ~.. -
. mi "w
h... . st
; s u \ n. .
WNW p
-N gg
<* ~ . LW '
,, \
/.
. ..i .,. t
, - , s ,,./ r.X s
,- \ ,
, A.s.
ea". . ,,,;y n
~F p-f4,,4 .
y T1 mw . , , . .. . ,, ,,<~ . . . , ,, , ,, . , , . t . . A T )t
.dy?>'/,
1- ..
-.,W J :
' \, ... s '
wsw . ,, cit . O - .. m. m
., e N . u.. .
. a' .
s
/ , st
, w.
m a m
, a ,,
tag
'sw ,,, 82 sst ,
tzo S m tue w iW.131' **""
. g g , g g i. : =
N 8 *e. vt oittLt <, 1014.3 / ses es a. I wNg6 IU'8' '8'Il l nit'*
.. a *. ..
i-a s '. s && u:2 7i .sm s
,,g
.- i a sse
... wa . r,.7 s
.4 e H N
DE u h 0F
! 7 ur i Mh.E RING
... i seu +> su.
... 6 u rr .* mim
.. 6 iris *. 3.u
.... , ,,.. *e ; -
.41 i ,,,, s.: i un, e '
10-52 ( Rev. 2 w
FIGURE 10-10C I , SCDARIOS 1 AND 2: SUWIR WIIKDO (V) M POEmm (IN VDIICLES) e (ED
- N 'irn W NNW * ~
8'8 NNE. osu
. '8 1; IniD ** -
.. CIED
[u.. "' Ne a j ** ww/ . v.. / su * / s ,,v ,, % =\ . tNE r vs
.e g, ,
u a,, ,, m = . =,,,, i, . -
.w "' [ 'j gr, w := .= j n. na .a .4 ., p, . ,a j . . . ,. . . . . ce >
'w ,
'" , # ,,"" e , L !
[
,- ,, e~ ..
n, su n' =. . . o.. .
,, i.o '" == ,,
, /.i '
,Q vsw **
n. Est ce ! (-) e
" 3 a=
teu 'i= , == u,
,. . ... ai, .
MS E* s
.i., u. .
' sc E . E
$25 til
'" sst sS W ,,,
- s c=D (20 C D ;TI."11' *'"'"
. gggg,gg i. . ,
N n a**. . vt hitti k t ri aLS es man w@a ' 18' A
- M','" **' -
*I i
.., us.i
+. ...
./ ,
l i..a. e-3 *...;
- ,3 a.u s
l . . . .. .*"' DEulL OF
** ***' ** *)*. I MILE R]NG
.., son e, u .. ,
... .=> .-. ...
1 .. .... .. .,
,:L :: **
,, 10-53 pav. 2 U~
i l I-
FIGURE 10-11A
, -m SCDmRIOS 3 MO 4: SllHER WEEKIRY DM t
1 (,> POPEATIO4 OF N E 1.IVE OIJI' SIDE OF EPZ (IN VDUCLES) Cco CII3 N [EEi3 ww '". NNW NNE
*.w.
EA y, 7.8
* :I9 3;9 -
g NW *. qg
- n. *.e E
- e
~ f3 .
CTC "NW
/
vi
d us Nit
,, i.,
u\ E a
... .., )- , '\,NE
' a ,.
- ,.e ..
- e a
I a g , ,.H a g f u f
- a ', j#
xf .. cgg3 y se is e i n e er j =t
.. e l e e e e e'e e E CID Pt ts (
.. 'e ' s /
65 - iis ttl 8
me * = " a
, e tw (Q '",
iw e wsw " ' v
/
g en in tw , EsE m
*m wi um se ,
sw tl i... Q' sE a uso n w , w ssw " ssE a:33 s tuo ano CD i%f',33T **** gg g g,ggie*: N e Il e 9 e vt mitLth 1014L5 les eeJ8 agNg, 70tak ettl N$'8
/,, , , ,
7-1 W% ? 1'. S. ~. ..1
.. .m 5
.= am ... ..v DETAIL OF
+-. m *. *r i MILE R]ND i
10-54
". ."". Rev. 2
( 1...., . -., I i t
;
FIGURE 10-11B p SCENARIOS 3 MO 4: SUMMER WEEKDAY 'IRANSIDff i
' (,,) ,
MPUIATIN (INCI.UDES BEACH AREA EMPIDYEES) (IN VEHICLES) tm ! E N ," (EID u,
' t NNW n
NNE.14
- u ,
er , r
*ie CI'E) , - , DIE ufy\g-s ,
l 4r e %< g, c 3
;
,, 1st s *
, i S
\ENE
[ . .. .
"l"h ?'
.. s.. . ..
i' w
' ' s ><
/
h . . . . ..
;
88 si ,
.re .e u ,
N 8
, n 4 '
u u '
- w . p .. u
- WSW 8' '
t u v J .e ESE E ' CID ,d n 3. e
,3 C. 983 64 ss . m e
,, =>
l 6 SS
- n CIE3 ." vs C3D n '8 sn SSW ,, . SSE cm s amo :
cm i i M.".tl11' **r58'
. ggg,gg .=4 N
8 s *e 0 vimittfl 1(31st.$ eesaa' iE
.iMu to'* seus .I M',"' W ', -
e
<-, < es
. sw. n ,
,3 s. . . .. .v.
,. eu, *. .,,,, S
- ie.i ** .,'
u OETAIL OF
. .w ** rren 1 MILE RING
... *> n
>s s,e u n,,
.- .,, .. ,.n 7 .... ,,, ~ ,...
( ..-,,, ,.. -,, ,,,,, 10-55 Rev. 2 (
FIGURE 10-11C 7 -- NOS 3 AND 4: SUMMER h (,) ' MAL POPUIATICN (IN VDIICLES) e E . N 'im CE2 NNW .,, NNE
, l
*:tiert
_ NV y -.
.es ' ,,
;~ _
#8
'i' 5 91 / tot ae.
33g
\**NE*,c til i e7 j E
"N"
/t.at '"' t34 II.
~
E j
,a '" "' l r., , ENE
's)eg 614 1 "I
,a " im' - 2 ,
e
.i in
,,,/,,'i.N': ,
, ;
8W ttt ,pg - '83 g
~ -, - -
mW :., .. ... ... c .. ,, u. u. s . , , , . . , , . . E CSD w, 73 * *' g
'I Ilit gas .ss 9 8** U8 IH 681 ..A se #
= *
,ex 13es 2698 ?M .31 III 3
/ \ ?M S D'I ESE g (s._ /
W$W 16. s. e ,,,, u. .
't # 3090 713
. mi m, e es ** ,
ne=1 t ?.
.. ,. w .>.
CED ... C:D ssW ., ssE cso S tsD tsID
, , ;e;ryn' =cui
.g.m . ai.
N is t3 e 33 9 10 8 vtalCLil 1014tLS l age east .g*d'gg T014 s&tt Ng'g"8 Si ice, &s gem. a e iss t e +# ,*e ,
,, . n i , -...
... i ,4. w . ... ,-,. S
- 6 .2 + ... .."' DETAll 0F w 4 ,*.8 i *-* ! M]LE RING
... , . . . .. . ',',a u
... . ... +-. <. m pi ....
2n, u.. m.,
.,.t 10-56 Rev. 2 V
FIGURE 10-12A
,3 SCDERICS 5, 6 AND 7: WIlffER MIDREEK b' MIDMY DEIMEES WFO LIVE OUI' SIDE 'IHE EPZ (IN VEHICLES)
C:E] CED N ..n CEE 12 3
,,, in
.,,, o CDD '
... .i GD NW *.
gg n v .. 3 m , l ,,, / t , M * # CIO wy / gf u. [,N ise % ts s NE a -
/, - l ... ,
I
,, .. / .,, ... ,
* ~ s .
f
- t
,, ige /.,"' is ,,
e . f f w w is a , e er . .: n t .". l
",e u le . . . . . . E CE3
.M .
n / u { n e we
, ,, b. ,,\ , ' ,,, e n = n
,, u,
.. i a ,
,_ ,,,=. - i, (v WSW o
in in e ESE t ID e . ,, .
.m m
f .,7 . 7.4
~. \u 15 SW 3, SE M
\
." :n
[IZD / e.. C2D
, .; - .
" SSE SSW ,,,
S GID CED CED t i !?f.*it' "
. i
#b? M, ** '"
N i . 8 e is a s . vf =10Lg 5 101aL S j l ene out l .g .'(ikgg 1Dfa6 Phil l ,[
+. . .u e-, . . . .
l
-i i o +4 . .., 3, ,
-, a <. *, . ..,
- v. i :n. .. . . . . S i -. i nas n i me DETAIL OF
' m I .'*.
i
. .'re
- m. n 1 MILE R]NG ;
... i ... e. .
j . . .
.. . .. e. i . . . , .
\ .p ... . ,.,, . . ... s . . . . . , , .. -., i . 10-57 Rev. 2 rJ : 4 I
FIGURE 10-12B SCD&RIOS 5-10: WINTER 'IRANSIDTP IOPUIATION (,, ) q ,J (IN VDUCES) E CD N , ,, E NNW , NNE e se CD e e - CO NW il gg e ,, e il e - . e e is e r CD "N" e - se N* CD ENE
, e, e 8
/e e I* e
- f. ,
e de I 4 , p 4 , e
' 'f' , ,je
, {** -
g w e e e e e e a w+ p ". e e e e e . e e E w e e e ' " e e te
'" e e e e e is * '
.e i e u e e e is u e e vsw '
- is e ESE m
( .3 m . i' e V ie a e
,e e ,e e g e S , SE e e CE , CE e e ssy '
SSE tr S T CE CD P#' I.tSi' **'"' 27.Q2' '*' ** N j e e *e e 0 e W E *If CLf '> 10 T 4 9 as on.as . ftes veia satt W'a's'" ', '
.* e. ** . e ,e p-1 1894 .- ) * *W9
- v. ,si r.. S
. ... *. , me ogTAIL or
+4 .. ** rua 1 MILE R]NG 4 ., e. ,
.- w. ,m 10-58 Rev. 2 1 (,.
FIGERE 10-12C J
\
SCD&RIOS 5, 6 AND 7: WINTER MIm H E, 7]
't) MIDERY IUTAL POPIRATICN j (IN VEHICLES)
M (2!E N ,,,, M NNW ,,, NNE
'5473e as ,,,
in. M '" .s. su E ; NW " i /m - rn NE A "' ,," '"
'l h,,
N [3, "' te Cno WNW
.g e
tes
.e 1
,, t
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FIGtRE 10-13A SCD&RIOS 8, 9 AND 10: WINTER EVENDG AND
'l WEEKDO EMPIOYEES NHO LIVE OUTSIDE OF EPZ (IN VDIICLES) e E CE3 N .e.e NNW**
NNE
'un
,, u E **
tv NW to m N
.a. , , .s,.
n.r .- 10-60 m.2 l
i, i- I I 1 FIGURE 10-13B q SCENARIOS 8, 9 AND 10: WDm:R EVf2GG AND i
)- WEEKEND 'IUIAL IONIATICN (IN VEHICLES) I e '
e .,,, N
*e= M NNW NNE
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- 11. EVACwLTICN TIME ESTD%TES (ETE) TOR TRANSIT OPERATIOE
,C) mis section details the analyses applied and the results obtained, which V pmdde evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles. % e g ue dure ist o Estimte demand for transit service o Estinte time to parfom all transit functions o Estimate route travel time o Detamine how buses should be allocated to routes o Develop !!TE Estimates of Demand for ihmsit Service Demand for transit service reflects the needs of differmt " special population" groups: '
- 1. Residents and transients with no vehicles available
- 2. Special facilities: schools, health-support, child-care, other b'
/~
- 3. Private citizens (i.e., those not in health-support facilitics) who have special medical needs.
%e demand estimates for the groups identified in items 2 and 3 have been developed by the State Civil Defense Agencies and thereby lie outside the scope of this report. Se demand associated with item 1 does fall within the scope of this report.
We survey conducted in Autumn of 1985 (see Appendices F and G, and Figure 2-3) acquired a data base which enabled us to estimate the population group of it s 1. %is group is divided into two subgroups: l o % cse persons in households with no vehicle available l 11-1 Rev. 2 1
,_.,.,x ,,-. . - , . . , , - > - - - - - - - + - - - w *~m
l o mose persons in households which norna11y have at least one vehicle l' available, but would not have a vehicle available at the time the evacuation is ordered. i te persons belonging to the latter subgroup cre in households where the vnhicle(s) have been driven away frm hee for camating purposes and are , j therefore not 4==44ately available when the order to evacuate is given and, in addition, the drivar(s) of the vehicle (s) refuse to return has to gather the household msnbars. Question 10 of the survey addressed this issue. Other, less igjortant factors, include the pssibilities that the vehicle is non-functioning or that the ecmmitar is willing, Dut unable, to return hme. Tables 11-1 through 11-4 are typical print-outs of the software developed to analyze the survey data base and to provide the anpirical basis for quantifying those two subgroups. tese data were then multiplied by the sanple factor (i.e., ratio of total households within the EPZ, to the number of rand ely i selected households sanpled) to obtain the data for each ccumunity within the " { EPz. Table 11-5 presents the sumary of this data. here are several factors which influence the accuracy of these estinates in Table 11-5:
- 1. mese figures include school children. On school days, separate transportation is provided for the children in school and the actual need for transit is thereby less than the given estinates.
- 2. mese figures do not take into account the effects of ride-sharing with family, friends and neighborn who do have whicles available.
2 the extent that ride-sharing is undertaken, the actual need for transit is less than the given estim tes. l
- 3. Bese figures do not take into account the prospect that vehicles nay not be available due to nalfunction, m that extent, the actual need for transit is slightly greater than the given estinates.
11-2 Fev. 2 O
T i 1 l
- 4. Since the number of surveyed persons in m ch town who require transit is small relative to the total sanple, we are contending with a hJV problem of small sanple size when the data is considered at the comunity level. That is, the confidexe interval associated with I these estimates is apt to be large. Taere is thus a statistical uncertainty associated with these estimatos (as there is with my estinates obtained using statistical procedures) which should be prudently censidered. ;
We have not included those buses which are located within the pt. 7b this extant us have overestimated the need for transit vehicles from outside the EE . It is possible to quantify these fac-tore in a conservative manner, thus insuring that adequate transit resources will be available -
- 1. A reduction in estimated demand due to school children being evacuated by bus is justified only if the accident occurs during a
- school day. Since school is in session 180 days in a 33ar, for about 7 hours, the prnhnhility of an accident occurring when school is in
! session is approximately 180 x 7 - 365 x 24 = 0.144 or 14.4 percent j Consequently, since children will not be in school over 85 percent of 3 the time, it is prudent to assume that all school children of l transit-dependent families will be at home and will require transit.
- 2. Ride-sharing does have a pronounced impact on estimating the need for transit. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated fran Mississauga, Ontario and who did not use their own cars, shared rides with neighbors and friends. Other documents also report that approxirately 70 percent of transit-dependent persons were evacuated via ride-sharing.
I ( !' 11-3 Rev, 2
We will adopt ?.he lower figure of 50 percent to calculate ?.he number of transit-dapendent persons who will ride-share. me remaining 50. percent will need transit vehicles in order-to evacuate. l 3. 'Ib estimate the number of people who are transit dependent because l their vehicles are out of service (i.e., inoperable) due to l mechar.ical problerns, a telephone surmy was undertaken of fleet
] operators. Se respondents were asked how many days per year the l average fleet vehicle was inoperable. Based upon this survey we l ocnservatively adopted an estimate of four days per year or 1.1% of i l the time.
l l @us, the probability that a household which owns a single car having o l that car out of service at any tire is 0.011. For a household with j tm cars, the probability that both cars are out of service l sinultaneously is 0.00012. For households with nore than two cars i. l the pmMhilities of all being out of service is too low to be l significant. Using the survey data presented in Figures 2-2 and 2-3, l the number of people with out of services vehicles can be calculated l as follows:
'Ibtal number of people in 6 households with "n" cars =E6HxApxCn p xP p=1 I
l where: I H = # of households = 'Ibwn Poo. (Table 2-1) in each town Avg. Pop. per Hshld (Figure 2-2) l l Ap =
% of those households with "P" number of people (from l Figure 2-2) l l Cn p =
of those households with "P" number,of people the % of l with "n" number of cars (frtrn Figure 2-3) l l P = Number of people in household
;
l 11-4 Rev. 2 ; __. __ __ _ _ _ _ _ _. . _. _ .-w
l Therefore the estimtad # of people whose cars are out of service l equals: i'v) # of people in x 0.011 + # of people in x 0.00012 households with households with one car two cars l l This calculation was done for each town and is listed on Table 11-6, l Colunn 6. I
- 4. It is possible to calculate the confidence interval for a stated level of confidence, a, by applying the bincmial distribution.
Specifically, the following expression appifes: p 1 .4 . (re ) + Vf rwid- (n+2cir4n 2 (n + 2c) where: q V p = Fwevrtion of sanpled number of households that have no vehicles available d = Dctent of confidence interval at a percent confidence interval n = Sanple size, households r = np, sanple response indicating the number of persons, in the sanple, who require transportation assistance ; c = 1/2 Z2 o/2, obtained frczn tables l Za/2 = Nomal deviate exceeded with probability, c2 Reft Crow, E.L. , Davis, F.A. and Maxfield, M.W. , Statistics Manual, gS Dover Publications Inc., New York, 1960. (j 11-5 Rev. 2 l
l P We will select et = 80 percent. Fran tables, the corresponding value of e is 0.822. mis means:
'Ihere is an 80 pucwit prnNhility that the true pvru.i. ion, p, of the underlying ray 1= tion frun which the sanple was drawn, lies between p - d/2 and p + d/2. 'Ihis is equivalent to stating that there is a 90 pmc it probability that tle true value of p does not exceed p + d/2. .
Table 11-6 lists the results. Colum 1 is the sanple size, n, in each ; comunity. 'Ihe sanple responses, r, the number of persons who do not have a
vehicle available, are listed in column 2. 'Ihe proportion, p, the quotient of column 2 by 1, appears in column 3. Colunn 4 contains the calculated values cf (;9d/2). 'Ihe next colunn, 5, contains the number of persons within et.ch l camunity who haw no vehicles available and require transportation assistance; these estimates have only a 10 percent prnMbility of actually being exceeded.
'Ihe calculation to obtain these estimates are outlined below:
A. For comunities where p> 0, this estimate of persons naarling assistance is calculated as Fq (o + d/2) P where Eq is in the last column of Table 11-5. B. For comunities where p = 0, this estimate of persons needing assistance is ml mlated as (No. of households) x (p + d/2) me number of households is estinated as I:stimated Population + 2.87 where 2.87 is the average number of persons per household. 11-6 Rev. 2 _ , . . . _ _ _ _ _ _ ~ _ _ _ . _ . _ _ . . _ .
I C. We 'estinte of the number of persons requiring transportation ' l assistance because their vehicle is not- operable is listed in ! l Colum 6. l l Colum 7 contains the estintes of people requiring transportaticn l assistance and who do aq1; share a ride with friends or neighbors ([Colum 5 + , l Colum 6]/2). mese persons r2st be provided with transit. l 2ese estintes my be cmpared with those obtained from two surveys of ; l all residents in New Hanpshire, ccriducted in 1986 and 1988 by the New Hangshire ; Office of anargency Management. We total number of persons requiring transportation assistance, as detamined frm this survey, including those in l special facilities, was 2,079 and 2,042, respectively. Se calculated estinte j for New Hanpahire, which excludes those in special facilities, as obtained frm Colum 6, is 2,249. mis close agreement verifies the applicability of the telephone survey (4pendix F) and of the ccarputational athodology presented above. Table 11-7 presents the transit requirements for all ccumunities, based on the estimtes of Table 11-5, and on the number of bus routes identified by State Civil Defense personnel. The number of persons serviced on each bus route within a ccumunity my be estimted by dividing the total number of transit-dependent persons by the number of routes. mis estimate, however, assumes that people are I uniformly distributed over a ccumunity, by route -- an assumption which will overestinto the actual demand for sczne routes and underestinte the actual deand for sczne routes. 'Ib counter the prospect that a non-unifom spatial (i.e., route-specific) distribution of population would yield a higher demand for transit service than estimtad on sczne bus routes, we will increase all route-specific estimtes of transit demand, by 20 percent. (mis is equivalent to increasing the total estim ted demand by 20 percent.) We number of bus trips needed per route is based on the conservative 1 prunise that the average bus occupancy at the conclusion of the bus run will not exceed 30 persons. This figure ccripares with an actual seated capacity of 40 adults or 60 children. For example, if the passengers are two-thirds adu!ts and 11-7 Rev. 2
. , - - - - ,# r y -e- y ,.-,4 . , + ..w. -
one-third children, then the bus capacity is (2/3) 40 + (1/3) 60 = 47 persons. On this basis, we have assumed that bus trips, at nost, will be running at an ! average load factor of (30/47) 100 = 64 percent, mus, even if the actual d [ for service on a bus route exceeds the estimates in colum 3 of Table 11-6 by 57 percent, that danand can still be am -.- - ia ted by the available seating capacity. Any additional danand can be achmMated by standing passengers or by rerouting buses frun more lightly loaded routes within the comunity. It is r% ->- -Med that all buses return to the local Transportation l Staging Area at the conpletion of each run. W ere, partly-filled buses can [ consolidate thel:e respective occupants, so that only full (or nearly-full) buses leave the comunity and the EPZ for the relocation cantar. In this way, see , i l buses can make two or more trips along a route. We acum-sied numbar of buses required is datamined by the number of buses leaving the EPZ carrying a full l passenger manifest (assumed to be 36 persons). If additional buses are I provided, excess space will be available. , l Develotznant of Bus Routes l l Evacuation bus routes were developed for the New Hampshire EPZ Comunities l l by the New Hanpshire Office of Dnargency Managenent and for the Massachusetts j l comunities under the direction of the Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency. Se l l routes were designed to start at a designated location (i.e., local l l transportation staging area / transfer point) and extena through the town to fem a l closed path while generally adharing to following guidelines I l l 1. No house would be more than approximately one half mile fran a bus [ route. l l l 2. Buses would not back track on the same route. I l 3. Buses would follow the directions provided at the traffic control l l phu. l l In sane cases the current bus routes reflect nailfications or improvenants l to those originally developad. 11-8 Rev. 2 9
I i I Calculation of Transit Route Travel Tims i
'~
me calculation of t.ransit route travel tines depends intrinsically on how ; the buses are allocated to the specified routes in each ccxmunity. Se allocation of buses to bus routes within a ecxmunity will be based on the objective of minimizing evacuation time. This is equivalent to stating the following: ' Allocate buses to routes so that the total time needed to evacuate , transit-dopendent persons is approximately the sam for all routes. We analysis formulation and procedure are presented below:
';
Ist N = Tbtal number of buses needed in a ccxmunity based on an average occupancy of 36 persons. Sea colunn 6 cf Table 11-7. -
!O n = Number of bus trips along each route, r, within the V
ccxmunity; r = 1, 2, . . . , R. See column 4 of Table 11-7. Xr = Number of buses allocated to route, r.
= Bus travel tim, hours, on route, tr r. This value is determined fran the IDYNEV sinulation output. For those !
segments of the bus route which are not on evacuation routes (e.g., local streets or counterflow streets), a maan
- speed of 10 nph is assumed which takes into account time spent stopping to load passengers.
Tr(Xr) = Total elapsed time, hours, to service transit-dependent l evacuees along route, r, using Xr buses to ecxtplete an l aggregate of n trips. l Hr = Bus headways on route, r, hours. O O 11-9 Eav. 2
. . - - .a
Definitionally, , Tr(Xr) " Prtr + (n - (pr-1)Xr - 1)Hr ! for (pr-1)Xr < n 5 pz X r i Pr " is 2r M71Et Pr = Mm= number of tripe nede by a bus on Route, r. where pr = n/Xr. If not an integer, then Pr
- Int B'1 -
Xr Clearly, Xr 5 n. 'Ihat is, the number of buses assigned to a route cannot exceed the number of trips to be empleted. ; Also, by definition, . Hr = tr/Xr when Xr < ni When Xr = n, we will adopt the following cordition in order to provida reasonable spacing of buses: Hr a min (tr/n, 0.2)
'1he objective is. to select the Xr such that
- max (Tr(Xr)) is minimized r
subject to the cordition, , Dtr = N r l t 11-10 Rev. 2 i l 1
P meedure ' ( h procedure is trial-and-error which converges rapidly if the proper care is taken.
- 1. Select the longest route, r = rn. Assign Xr = n for this route.
2. Calculate Pri Hr and Tr (Xr = n) l Set Nran = N - Xr = N - n
- 3. Select the lengest remaining route. Estimate Xr for this Route, r, as follows:
Xr " 1r Xr tr L L ,
- 4. Chicalate pri Hr and Tr(Xr)*
l 5. Ccapare Tr(Xr) with Tr-1 (Xr-1). If these figures are mmble, ( accept the solution. Else, adjust the estimate of Xr, accordingly, and repeat steps 4 and 5. When ecmpleted, set Nrun = N m - Xr 6. If nere routes runnin to be analyzed, return to step 3. If finished, examine Nran' If Nrun < 0, either request nore buses for this ccumunity to keep the objective function low, or reduce the nunter of bcses allocated to those routes which exhibit low values of Tr(Xr) relative to other routes and rado the procedure of steps 4, 5 and 6 until Nrun = 0. If Nrun > 0, which is a desirable condition, there is a choics: Add buses to those routes with the longest values of Tr(Xr), subject to 11-11 Rev. 2 i I
7_. L 2 X r < n, and/or store these excess buses at the local transportation center for use only to accept people fra the route buses and ' transport them out of the EPZ. ' r If Nrm = 0, procedure is emplete. 3 Damole Greenland; N = 7, n = 3 r = 1 2 3 tr " 1.1 1.1 1.4 Step 1. Select r = ri, = 3, the largest routa. Assign X3 = n = 3 Step L p3 = 3/3 a 1; H3 = rr.in[1.4/3, 0.7) = 0.2 T3(X3 ) = 1(1.4) + (3 - (1 - 1)3 - 1)0.2 = 2.3 Nr um = 7 - 3 = 4 Step 3. Salect y = 1, next longest reute ' X1 = (1.1/1.4)(3) = 2.36. Chwse X1=2 Step 4. H1 = min (1.1/2, 0.2) = 0.2 ; p1 = I2P. [3/2 + 1)=2 Ti(X1 ) = 2(1.1) + (3 - (2 - 1) 2 - 1) 0.2 = 2.2 Step 5. Ti(XI ) is cmparable to T3(X3 ). Accept result. Nm"4-2"2 r Step 3. Select r = 3, remaining route. X2 = (1.1/1.4)(3) a 2.36. Choose X2=2 Step 4. H2 = min (1.1/2, 0.2) = 0.2 ; p2 = Int (3/2 + 1] = 2 T2(X2 ) = 2(1.1) + (3 - (2 - 1) 2 - 1) 0.2 = 2.2 Step 5. T2(X2 ) is same as T3(X3 ). hpt result. Nr m = 2 - 2 = 0 0.K. We are finished. 11-12 Rev. 2 O.
i We results am: (3 r Xr Tr(Xr) V 1 2 2.2 = Maxinum travel time . 2 2 2.2 3 3 1.8 Assimt of B=^= to Service Schools l It is preferable if the number of buses dispatched to the schools is based l upon the actual numbar of students in school at the tim instand of total lenrollmente. %is distinction arises because: o Actual attandance nay be scnswhat below enrollmwit due to absences. ' o Many children nay have been pickea up at school by their puts and by neighters/ friends of the parents before the buses arrive at the local transportation center. l
'v %e latter point deserws further discussicn.
Distribution B listed in Table 4-2 mpresents the event, " Arrive Hee. " his distribution is plotted in Figure 11-1. l It is seen that within an hour of the Order to Evacuate (OTE), alnest 90
- i. j percent of all comuters have returned home fran work; this figure expands to 92 i l percent at 1:15 after the OPE.
In addition, households with two camuters, or with one adult at hcme with a vehicle available, could be in a position to pick up their child (ren) at school even earlier. mus, the vast majarity of parents will be in a position to pick up their child (ren) at school before the arrival of the buses. (While the EBS messages will notify the public that transportation is being made available to the schools and that there is no need to pick up children, we have to recognize, as a practical matter, that nany parents who can do so, 6 drive to school for that purpose.) Since nany - if not, nost -- children will have been picked up by 11-13 Rev. 2 l
1 their parents and by their neighbors by the tima the buses arrive at the local 20C, the actual number of buses needed will be significantly less than the number i nobilized for that purpose. Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit-DeLiMsnt Persons
'Ihe Evacuaticm Time Estbrates for transit-dependent parsons nust be j
developed for several categories of "special population":
. l o
Residents and tourists with no cars available , o Special facilities Schools Health-su[ port facilit2es . Child-care centers Other o special nedical neeris
] In Massachunutts, be yard neiagers wilJ nobi.11zo thair drivery to the bus l yards.
Dnergency resp:nse perscnnel will first go to the Staging Area where they l will be briefed and then they will suceej to the bus yards to dispatch the bus l drivers. 'Ibe drivers will receive their briefings and assignments at the bus l yard and, upcn notification of an order to evacuate, will be dispatched to their l assignments in the EPZ. Buses evacuating spw 4a1 facilities will be dispatched ldirectly to these facilities frm the bus yard. Buses running general l population transit dependent bus routes in the EPZ towns will be dispatched to a j designated Transfer Point for that town. At the Transfer Point the buses will l run their assigned routes and will then take evacuees to a Reception Center. l l During a rapidly escalating energency this Massachusetts procedure is l nodified to expedite dispatch. Upon notification the bus drivers obtain buses l and suc ed directly to the campus of the Northern Essex Comunity College in lHaverhill. 'Ihis facility is near the Staging Area and saves the time of having l the ettergency response personnel travel to the bus yard. Dnergency response 11-14 Rev. 2 l
personnel brief and dispatch the drivers at the college. A separate detailed analysis of the time needed for this expedited bus nobilization is contained in
< Appendix o. -
w l In IW Hangshize, buses will travel frtan their resFdve originating llocationstotheStateTransportationStagingAreas(TSA). The TSAs are located l at the Rockingham County Conplex in Brentwood and at !W Hampshire Port Authority l in Portmouth. Prtra there, they will be sent, as needed, to local TSAs within each ccumunity. At that time, the buses wi.11 be assigned to specific routes or facilities by the local Transportation Coordinator.
'1he time elements involmd for all vehicles responding to the anargency are outlined below:
- 1. M illization Tire Flapsed time fram the nrunant that the transit agency is notified of the need for vehicles until the tiane the viticles leave their respectise points of origin.
[v 2. Inbound Travel Tine l l Elapsed time to travel to a staging area or special facility. l
- 3. Time to Icad Passengers l a. For vehicles servicing special facilities in th Hampshire, this
! time includes the travel frcrn the local transportation center to the facility and the time to load passengers,
- b. For vehicles servicing ambulatory transit-dependent persons who are not at special facilities, this includes the travel times along the assigned routes.
1 11-15 Rev. 2
l i a
- 4. Cutbound Travel Time i Elapsed time fran the facility or transportation center to the EP boundary. ;
Mobilization Time A telephone survey of organizations which own and operate buses was undertaken to obtain estinates of mobilization time. Were was a fairly wide variance of estinates anong the different organizations. Many indicated that all bus drivers and buses could be nobilized within one hour. Others indicate that 1 anywhere fran 20-50 percent could be mobilized in one hour, with the remainder within the second hour. A few indicated that nere than 2 hours were W. In
these cases the last 20-30 percent could be nobilised within the third hour after notification. ~ Anettar Actor is ti:re of year. During the sumer and on weekends during the off-seman, fesar aus drivars are available in many cases and diltzation time is acmewhat longer. FC,rtunately, schTl is not .in session during these ' periods so the newi for 'msw is retiucod cecordingly. Easai on our survey, it is conservatively estinated that o n all, 50 percent of the available buses can be mobilized within one hour of notification, another 30 parcent within the second hour and the Isnainder within the third hour. We statistics of primary interest, however, are the nobilization times of i 2:s m ived vehicles. Based upon the infomation provided by state agencies, an adequate number of buses is available. Therefore, we will assume that 50 percent of all required buses will be nobilized in one hour following notification, with the remainder available during the second and third hours. 11-16 Rev. 2 O
- - , . , . , , . . ,,.-v-- , . - - , , ,m-, .-,r-w--- ,-- ,
l l Inbound Trsve1 Time l V) . l I
'Ihe elapsed time frta the time that buses leave their respective points of origin to the time they arrive at the local transportation center may be expressed as:
TI = D6+P where: ' 1
=
TI Lh travel time, hours D = Distance to be travelled, miles v = Mean speed, nph I P = Any paparation time, enroute. For exanple, time spent at a ! staging arom would fall in this category. f) 'Ihs travel distance will vary, depending an the point of origin. Same bus depots that are outside ths D2 are lo:sted in neighboring cmmmities. Others arn as far as 30+ miles fram the DZ. It is reasant.ble to expect that there should be little ipsce to - ineming emergency vehicles for the following reasons: 1. In general, the first few buses won't start leaving their respective points of origin until 30 minutes after the Order to Evacuate. Bus volumes travelling toward the DZ will increase toward the one-hour
- mark.
2. At one hour after the order to evacuate, see 70+ percent of returning camaters will already have reached hcne within the DZ, and vill therefore be off the highways. O 11-u .2
i
- 3. Other traffic which would nornally travel towards the EPZ would be discouraged by EBS and other nalia nessages and by people's concern I over the potential risk to their health and safety, i on this basis, it is reasonable to expect that inccming buses would be able to average about 40 nph along at-grade prinary highways (e.g., Route 1) and 50 nph along access-controlled highways. While buses would be given priority at all Access Control Points, same delay, say 15 minutes, might be encountered there.
l 'Ihe preparation time depends on how well operations at the bus yards and : taaging area are organized, and on the relation between the demand for buses ! I l within the EPZ and the supply of buses arriving at the staging area. Assuming a raasonable degree of efficiency at the staging area and a high demand for buses within the EP2, a total preparation time, P, of 15 :.tinutes (0.25 hr. ) is a realistic estfrate. i As a planning basis, wn will esticata uc.inum inbound travel time for the - ensemble of buses es follows: ! TI = 30/40 + 0.25 + 0.25 = 1.25 hour > l Shus, buses should start arriving fran close-by points of origin (outside the EPZ) within one and one-half hours after the Order to Evacuate. Buses will continue to arrive, as n*, over the following hour, at which point, a sufficient number of buses necessary to evacuate the schools and the transit-dependent will be on-hand and will have started evacuation activities. (Of course, buses which service the comunities within the EPZ and are stored
- there, will arrive earlier.)
i Any additional buses naadad for special facilities (other than schools) which are not available 2 hours after the Order to Evacuate, will arrive during l the follow 2ng (i.e., thi.rd) hour. If only a portion of the EPZ is evacuated and if fewer buses are naadad for schools than have been allocated (based on earlier discussion), then it is likely that all required buses will have arrived at the local transportation center within 2 hours after the Order to Evacuate. 11-18 Rev. 2
4
- 6 Inclement weather, particularly snow, my increase the response time of buses. Wo will reduce incaning speed by 20 percent for rain and by 25 percent .
'for snow.
t !- Time to Inad Passenoars A. Special Facilities his includes the time to travel fran the local transportation center to the special facilities and then to load the passengers. i Studies have shown that passengers can board a bus at headways of 2-4 l seconds (see 1985 Highway Capacity Manual), mus, if we account for elderly or passengers, and allow additional time to walk to the bus, then we estimate that ' L a bus can be fully inariari in about 10 minutes (15 second mean headway for 40 passengers).
, me time to travel to the facility depends on the distance travelled and on whether the bus will be travelling with, or counterflow, the evacuating public. If we assume the fonnar, and apply the mean speed of 5.8 nph obtained l'
for Scenario 1, Region 1, as cmputed by the IDYNEV simulation, then for a distance of say, 3 miles within the eminunity,- the travel time will be about 35 minutes. , 1 1 mus the total time to load passengers at special facilities is ! approximately 45 minutes. I l l B. Transit-Dependent Persons at Home l me time to load transit-dependent passengers is dependent on the [ l time required to service the longest (in time) bus route, me m:mber of bus trips ,y l needed for a particular route is subject to change at the discretion of the )
.l personnel locally dispatching the buses. If additional trips are naMari, l lreturningbuseswillbedispatchedtorepeatthetrip. However, this is unlikely n
1, - 11-19 Rev. 2
Ibecauseofexcessavailabilityofspaceonthebuses. 'Ihe analysis WMure has , already been presented. Results are presented shortly. ; Outbound Travel Tim h time to travel out of the EPZ depends on several factors o 'Ihe location where this trip originates o 'Ihm traffic environment at the time this trip begins. h discussion above has identified that a reasonable estimate of the elapsed time from the Order To Evacuate to the tine that a bus servicing a special facility is 1-lari, is approximately 3 hours. Reference to Table 10-8 [ indicates that evacuation will not have been canpleted for any scenario in that time. Wus it is seen that the buses and vans used to evacuate special facilities will join, and be embedded within, the overall traffic streams evacuating the EPZ. It follows that the' ETE for these transit vehicles will not exceed those estimates already developed for evacuees using private vehicles, , regardless of the evacuation scenario.
'Its outbound travel time for transit-dependent persons who are transported by buses (i.e., do not ride-share) depends on the time required to ccmpletely execute all bus trips on all routes. This time depends on the number of buses per route and on the route travel time, as detailed earlier.
When the bus runs mingle with other evacuating traffic, then the route times are impacted by the im=tsce associated with the level of congestion encountered. If all bus runs have not been completed at tha time the other evacuating vehicles have left the area covered by the route, then the runnining tripe can be ccup]eted quickly since there would be no other -- or relatively few
-- vehicles on the highway.
O 11-20 Rev. 2
)
hs, this analysis for buses servicing transit-dependent persons. is more
. canplex than for those servicing special facilities. These transit ETE depend Q, on:
o '1he evacuation scenario o '1he location of the routes o '1he details of bus operations. Specifically, whether all runs are ; ocmpleted before, or after, the other evacuees have cleared the area. Our analysis has identified that those comunities in greater need of transit will, not surprisingly, take longer to evacuate. Specifically, the
~
criterion which controls ETE is " Bus Trips per Route," column 4 of Table 11-7, and the route travel times. Tables 11-8A and 11-8B present the results of the analysis for all ccumunities, using the gvcedure detailed earlier in this ' lg section. I Eirmiu.uancy Medical Service (D!S) Vehicles h
'1he previous discussion focused on transit operations for an'latory
! persons within the EPZ. It is also necessary to provide transit services to L non-amhilatory persons who do not - or cannot -- have access- to private vehicles. y-l
'1hese dis vehicles are vans equipped for transporting non-amh'latory l persons (i.e., those confined to wheel chairs), ambulettes and ambulances. '1 hey are generally available on an amargency basis; consequently, it is reasonable to expect that their mobilization would be much less than for bus vehicles. In fact, drivers for EMS are always either "on-station" or can be reached via a telecom pager. It is therefore reasonable to expect that mobilization time for DdS vehicles can be ccupleted within 20 minutes.
On the other hand, many EMS vehicles would have to travel much longer distances to the EPZ than would buses. For example, EMS vehicles frtru the North Conway area would travel a total of about 90 miles to a ccnnunity within the EPZ 11-21 Rev. 2 i j
- j l
and thence to a facility to pick-up passengers. A mean travel speed of 50 mph is assumed. O -I Thus the total elapsed time, at worst, fmn notification to the arrival of an MS vehicle at its destination within the EPZ, is estimated at: . 1 Mobilization Time: 0.33 hours ! l- Inbound Travel 90/50 + 0.50 2.30 j Icading Passengers: 0.67 3.30 hours I 1 Outbound travel would be controlled by the speed of other evacuating vehicles if the area is not yet cleared at 3:20; or would take less than 15 minutes if the area is cleared at that time. l Buses for Transit Decendent l; In calculating the ETE for transit-dependent people, it is necessary to add the mavi== values of Tr(Xr) in a Region, to the estimated time nobilization and for inbound travel. Based on the previous discussion, for g it is W ' reasonable to expect that the first buses will arrive at a local transportation l center at 1.5 hours after the Order to Evacute or nearly 2 hours after the Site Area Ehergency. 'Ihese first buses would be dispatched on those routes with the longest value of Tr (Xr)-
'Ihe ETE for Special Population is based on the analysis described earlier. l When transit trips are empleted before the time that private vehicles can clear the region, than the transit vehicles will mingle with the other evacuating vehicles. - In these cases, transit vehicles are subject to the same highway l
capacity constraints and congested conditions as are the private vehicles. 'Ihus , the ETE for the transit-dependent "special population" are set equal to the ETE ; for the general population. For the other scenarios, where see transit vehicles clear the region l
.a_gter the private vehicles, the special population ETE are based on ccanputed I values using the p.vcadures described in this section.
11-22 Rev. 2 l
F , l_ 'Ib calculate.the ETE for the special population, we proceed as follows: i
, l 1 l 1. Estimte the elapsed time for transit vehicles to start arriving at l local transportation center. As noted above, this estimate is 1:30.
I l l - 2. Assuming the first arriving buses will be assigned to longest routes ) l in each comunity, add the longest route time to the 1:30 of step 1. I l 3. Add the free-flow travel time to the EPZ boundary assuming all other l vehicles have evacuated. I l 4. For incleant weather conditions (rain, snow), nultiply the estinte l given in step 3 by (1.20 and 1.25), respectively. l l S. Catpare the ETE of step 3 (or step 4) with that for general traffic, ' l for all region / scenario canbinations: l 1 l o If this ETE exceeds that for the general population, list this i-l value in either of the last two colunns of Table 10-10. l l l , o If this ETE is less than that for the general population, then l list the general population ETE in the last two columns of Table 10-10. l I l 'Ihe following table lists the results of this analysis. All times are l relative to the Site Area Dnergency (SAE): 1 l Iongest Elapsed Time l Comunity with for Indicated Weather
-l M Ioncest Transit ETE fjggngl Egin M lA Seabrook 3:45 4:30 4:40 lB Amesbury 3:40 4:25 4:35 lC Kensington 3:15 3:55 4:05 l' D North Hampton 3:50 4:35 4:45 lE Mar -imac 4:05 4:55 5:05 lF Newton 3:55 4:40 4:50 lG Rye 4:10 5:00 5:10 11-23 Rev. 2
- l Since the Order to Evacuate (UTE) is assumed to take - place 25 minutes l after the Site Area Emergency (SAE) Classification, then the ETE values are 0:2
_ l Jggg than the above figures. The following table presents _ the ETE for spec l populations: l ETE for Indicated Weather lRecions Nonnal Egia Sg;g l1,11,17 3:45-4:30 4:40
-l5,-6,15 3:25 4:05 4:15 l 7, 8, 9, 14 3:20 4:00 4:10 l12 3:30- 4:10 4:25 l13,16 3:40 4:25 4:35 i
l Step 5 yields the following results: I l Conditions Where Soecial Population ETE ' l Rw= aria General Pooulation ETE l -l l ETE lRecions Scenarios Soecial Poo. . l 1 None 5 l l Ncme l 6 None l 7 9 4:00 3:40' l 8 None l 9 9 4:00 3:35
- l. 11 None l 12 None l 13 None l 14 None i
l 15 None
.l 16 None l 17 None I
l It is seen that the ETE for Special Populations are longer than those for jthe General Population, only for Scenario 9 (rain, off-season, evening or l weekend)andRegions7and9. 11-24 Rev. 2 O
^ ~
- n. s r
) -
-(m) _
TMEE 11-1 i NIMBER OF NON-REIURNERS FOR HOUSENDWS WI'HI 1 CAR Ato 100MEr1TR MD ORIVES i
; AMmumy, MA Households With (he Car Size of Such Households
- & 1 Comuter Wo Drives
, 1 2 3 1 5 1 2 R. 3 20 unknown idtal. No. of Such Households 4 3 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 I No. of Non Returners 1 1 0 0' 0 0 0 0 0 0 0- 2 No. of Returners 1 2 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 No. of Unsure 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3-Non Returners Pct. 50.0 33.3 0. O. O. O. O. O. O. O. O. 13.2-Tal NC. of Persons Requiring Transit: 3 [ Tal NC. of Persons at Hone Requiring Transit: 2 i I 11-25 Rev. 2-1 e 4 e .<g- ~ ,e m ~~- - --
,,n - " '
./*'^%,. ..'
. $ ;^}
f, f }. .
.l
'mEEE 11-2 NIMER OF NCN-RimRNERS PCR IOUSEHOEDS WTIE 2 CARS MD 2 03MFFERS WO DRIVE 4
AIESERRY, MPL Households With 2 Cars Size of Sudi Households
& at Isast 2 Ctanuters i
1 2 3 3 5 f 1 8 9 10 Urknown 'Ibtal I No. of Such Households 0 15 13 10- 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 43 No. of Neither Returned 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 No. of Either Returned 0 13 8 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 No. of Unsure 0 0 4 1- 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 Non Returners Pct. O. 13.3 0. O. O. 100.0 0. O. O. O. O. 8.3 Tal NC. of Persons Rorniiring Transit: 9 Tal NC. of Persons at Hcne Requiring Transit: 3 t
+
11-26 Rev. 2 i _ - , , . ._ , ~ .
~
(*'\( 0.
,i y . '
L )- 4
. wk i- TABLE 11 , PR.NBER OF NN-RImRNERS IM 10mwnns WI'III' 3 CARS Ato 3 UDMITERS WO DRIVE ABESRIRY, MA Ilouseholds With 3 Cars Size of Such Households
& at Isast 3 Carmuters 1 2 3 .$ E 5- 2 3 1 JO thknown 'Ibtal No. of Such Households 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 No. of None Returned 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 No. of at least 1 Returned 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 No. of Unsure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 Non Returners Pct. O. O. 50.0 0. O. O. O. O. O. O. O. 33.3 i
j Tal NC. of Persms Requiring Transit: 0 Tal NC. of Persons at flame Requiring Transit: 0 i 11-27 'Rev. 2'
Y
.. ,)
)_
./ ,
TAB E 11-4 IHEER OF IO3-RE11ENERS FCR 100SEIOIDS WP11I 4 CARS AIO 4 OO9UTERS MO ORIVE , AMESBERY, MIL liouseholds With 4 Cars Size of Such Households
& at Inast 4 Camuters
_1 2 3 .i 5 f 2 1 2 JO unknmn Ittal No. of Such Households 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 .0 3 No. of None Returned 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 'l No. of at Isast 1 Returned 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 .. Ib. of Unsure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .O Non Returners Pct. O. O. O. 100.0 0. 0.0 0. O. O. O. O. 33.3 l Tal NC. of Persons Requiring Transit: 0 Tal NC. of Persons at Hare Requiring Transit: 0 i i 4 e I 1 i
11-28 Rev. 2 i
~ . _ _ . _ . _ _ . _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ ._-_3 ' -
r - -- - r .e n.. -J,- - -
tant.R 5 ESTIYATES OF AMBULA20RY PERSONS RDJUIRDG TRANSIT - U MO DO N7P RESIDE IN SPECIAL FACILITIES f x. .
%J
! Persons in H.H. with X Vehicles, None of Which Will Be Available l
Comunity Total l X:' O 1 2 3 4 Persons l l Amesbury 299 112 336 0 0 747 I Merrimac 75 0 75 0 0 150 i Newbury 112 0 112 0 0- 224 thwburyport 336 75 112 0 0 523 Salisbury 75 112 0 0' O 187 West Newbury 37 0 0 0 0 37 amntwood 0 0 37 0 0 37 East Kingston 0 0 0 0 0 0 Exeter 112 37 75 149 0 373 Gmenland 0 75 149 0 0 224 Hampton 75 37 149 0 0 261 Haupton Falls 37 0 0 0 0 37 Kensington 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kingston 0 0 0 37 0 37 New Castle 0 0 37 0 0 37-Newfields 0 0 0 0 0 0 Newton 37 0 112 0 0 149 L North Hampton 37 0 0 0 0 37 'fg Portsmouth 448 187 261 37 0 933 l y- Rye 0 0 37 0 0 37 Seabrook 187- 0 0 0 0 187 l South Hampton 0. 0 37 0 0 37' Stratham 0 0 37 0 0 37 l
'Ibtal: 4291 h
EDI (1) Of those responded "Nor SURE" to the question: "Would you return' hane in an emergency at Seabrook?" we assume 50 percent would return
- l. hane.
l (2) 'Ihe sample factor is 37.33. (3) H.H. = Household l l l 11-29 Rev. 2 L [N-
;]
L ' l
I
'IABIE 11-6 CAICUIATED NUMBER OF PERSCNS REXJIRIN3 TRANSIT q
'l ' .1 2 2 .4 5 1 2 l Residents Residents l With lb Cars Needing l Ccrmunity n rmg g o+d/2 Avail. Ooer. Transit
-l <
lAmesbury 143 20 .140 0.18 966 41 504 l Merrinac 44 4 .091 0.162 266 13 140 lNewbury 46 6 .130 0.207 356 16 186 lNewburyport 150 14 .093 0.128 720 48 384 l Salisbury 58 5 .086 0.146 316 20 168 lWestNewbury 27 1 .037 0.116 116 10- 63 l l Bmntwood 20 1 .050 0.153 114 6 60 lEastKingston 12 0 0 0.120 53 4 29 lExeter 110 10 .091 0.132 541 34 288 l Greenland 21 6 .286 0.424 331 6 169
-( lHampton 105 7 .067 0.105 409 38 224 R.J lHamptonFalls 14 1 .071 0.211 110 4 57 l'Kansington 12 0 0 0.120 58 4 31 lKingston 46 1 .022 0.070 117 15 66
-l-Newcastle 9 1 .111 0.309 103 2 53 l Nedields 8 0 0 0.170 52 3 28
-l Newton 33 4 .121 0.213 262 11 137 lNorthHampton 34 1 .029 0.093 119 11 65 l Portsnouth 268 25 .093 0.119 1194 78 636 lRyu 46 1 .022 0.070 118 15 67 lSeabrook 60 5 .083 0.141 318 24 171 lSouthHampton 6 1 .167 0.425 95 2 49 lStratham 28 1 .036 0,112 115 10 63 l
l '1UIALS: 1300 115 .088 0.099 6849 415 3638 t,K 11-30 Rev. 2 L i 1 l l- l l 1 - .. - _ .- . l
g TABLE 11-7 ESTIVATED TRANSIT REXTIREMENPS L.) 3 3 3 3 g People No. of Pass. Trips 'Ibtal (1986) (1990) Requi.rdng Bus Per Per Bus Buses Buses Carmunity Transit Routes Eg_u3;g Egy3;g M Recuired Raauired Amesbury 504 7 87 .$ 21 17 18 MaMmc 140 2 84 3 6 5 6 Newbury 186 4 56 2 8 7 7 Newburyport 384 5 93 4 20 13 14 Salisbury 168 5 41 2 10 6 7 West Newbury 63 3 26 1 3 3 3 Brentwood 60 2 36 2 4 2 3 East Kingston 29 0 18 1 1 1 2 Exeter 288 4 87 3 12 10 11 Greenland 169 3 68 3 9 6 7 Hampton 224 8 34 2 16 8 8-Hampton Falls 57 3 23 1 3 3 3 Kensington 31 2 19 1 2 2 2 Kingston- 66 5 15 1 5 5 5 New Castle 53 1 64 3 3 2 3 Newfields 28 2 17 1 2 2 2 Newton 137 3 55 2 6 5 4 f N. North Hampton 65 3 26 1 3 3 3 V Portsmouth 636 7 110 4 28 22 21 Rye 67 5 17 1 5 5 5 Seabrook 171 4 52 2 8 6 6 South Hampton 49 2 30 2 4 2 2 Stratham 63 4 19 1 4 4 4
'IUrALS: 3638 183 139 146 Column Exclanation Column Exclanation l 1 Fran column 7 of Table 11-6 6 1.2 x Col. 1 l 2 Given by State CDAs /36, but > no. of routes l 3 1.2 x Col. 1/ Col. 2 7 Col. 6 adjusted for 1990 l 4 Col. 3/30 population. (See Section l 5 Col. 2 X Col. 4 2.)
l I ore l 'Ihe Town of Exeter will use four pick-up locations, rather than four bus l routes. 'Ihe 'Ibwn of East Kingston will pick up people at their hcass. 3. (Q 11-31 Rev. 2
\
TABLE 11-8A EESJLTS OF ANALYSIS 70 OBTAIN E?rE FOR 7~'y 'IRANSIT-DEPD0DfP PERSONS WI7EIN THE EPZ
\'-
(MASSA 01USETTS CONUNITIESi 7btal Travel Buses Route Route Tine Per Tine Iangth tr Route Tr(X) C% h (miles) Ihours) E fhours) Amesbury 1 9.0 0.9 2 1.8 2 6.7 0.7
}
2 1.4 ' 3 6.4 0.7 2 1.4 4 8.4 0.8 2 1.6 5 8.3 0.7 2 1.4 6 3.2 0.7 2 1.4 7 8.0 1.0 2 2.0 At Center J 18 i Marrinac 1 .17.9 2.1 3 2.5 2 12.0 1.2 ._2 2.4 5 Newbury 1 17.9 2.1 3 2.5 ("N, 2 12.4 1.2 2 1.4 () . 3 15.8 14.9 1.4 2 1.6 4 1.5 J 1.7 l 8 Newburyport 1 11.6 1.4 3 1.8 2 3.0 0.4 1 1.2 3 2.8 0.5 1 1.5 4 6.3 -1.4 3 1.8 5 6.2 0.9 2 1.8 At Center _3 13 Salisbury 1 6.4 0.6 1 1.2 2 9.3 1.2 2 1.4 3 10.7 1.6 2 1.8 4 11.8 1.4 2 1.6
- 5 8.2 1.3 _2 1.5 9
West Newbury 1 6.8 0.6 1 0.6 2 10.7 0.9 1 0.9 3 9.9 0.8 _J_ 0.8 3
,a V 11-32 Rev. 2
y TABLE ll-8B RESULTS OF ANALYSIS 10 OUTAIN UTE FOR j 'lHANSIT-DEPENDENT PERSONS WIURIN 'IHE EP3 (cont.1 (NEW HAMPSHIRE COMUNITIES) 7btal
'Itavel Buses Route Route Tine Per Time ,
Iangth tr Route Tr(X) l Comunity Route (miles) (hours) E (hours) l East Kingston 1* - - 1 - Exeter 1* - - 3 - 2* - - 3 - 3* - - 3 - 4* - -
) -
12 i Greenland 1 10.8 1.1 2 2.2 2 7.0 1.1 2 2.2 3 13.7 1.4 _l 1.8 7 fq Newton 1 7.0 1.6 2 1.8 (g 2 11.3 1.4 2 1.6 3 20.7 2.1 ,_2 2.3 6 Portsnouth 1 8.7 1.4 4 2.0 2 9.3 1.8 4 2.4 3 3.0 1.1 3 2.2 4 5.4 0.7 2 1.6 5 6.3 0.8 2 1.8 6 9.9 1.0 3 2.2 7 11.6 0.4 ._4_ 2.2 22 Seabrook 1 3.4 1.4 2 1.6 2 6.5 1.0 1 2.0 3 7.7 1.0 1 2.0 l 4 7.3 1.6 ,_2 1.8 6 South Hampton 1 12.4 1.2 2 1.4 2 7.0 1.3 _.2 1.5 4
*'Ihese are " pick-up" cer.ters: see Ibwn Plan.
f3 t l 5.J 11-33 Rev. 2
- 1. .. _
r TABLE 11-8B RESULTS OF ANALYSIS 'IO OB'IAIN UTE FOR !
'IBANSIT-DEPENDE!fP PERSCNS WT'IHIN 'IHE EPZ Icortt 1 (NEW HAMPSHIRE CCHMUNITIES)
' Ictal l Travel Buses Route '
Route Time Per Time langth tr Rmte Tr(X) Ccamunitv Eg gl: (miles) (hours) _2r- (hoursi North Hanpton 1 10.4 1.7 1 1.7 2 13.1 2.1 1 2.1 3 9.0 1.7 J 1.7 3 i Bmntwood 1 11.8 1.6 2 1.2 2 11.2 1.0 ,,,,2 1.2 4 New Castle 1 3.2 0.6 _,2 0.8 2 Kingston 1 17.2 1.7 1 1.7 2 12.8 1.2 1 1.2 3 10.0 0.9 1 0.9 4 10.6 1.1 1 -1.1 5- 9.8 0.9 1 0.9 5 Hampton Falls 1 13.0 1.1 1 1.1 2 7.2 0.7 1 0.7 3 11.4 1.1 J 1.1 3 Stratham i 11.5 1.1 1 1.1 2 11.1 1.1 1 1.1 3 8.3 1.0 1 1.0 4 17.4 2.4 J 2.4 4 Newfields 1 24.8 2.1 1 2.1 2 10.8 0.9 J 0.9 2 Rye 1 10.1 2.3 1 2.3 2 7.6 1.1 1 1.1 3 8.4 1.0 1 1.0 4 5.9 0.9 1 0.9 5 12.8 2.5 J 2.5 5 i 11-34 Rev. 2 l
l TAmm 11-8B j RESilLTS OF ANALYSIS TO OEF.' A IN ETE EUR 7RANSIT-DEPENDENP PERSCNS WI'IMIN 'IHE EPZ (cont, ) (NEW HAMPSHIRE CQ9tUNITIES) I l l Tbtal l Travel Ricca Rcute , Rcute Time- Per Time Iangth tr Rcute Tr(%) Cmmunity (miles) (hours) 3;!p.t,g t E (hcurs) Kensington 1 14.1 1.6 1 1.6 2 15.4 1.5 _ 1 1.5 2 Hampton 1 5.8 0.6 1 1.2 2 4.1 0.5 1 1.0 3 6.6 0.8 1 1.6 4 3.1 0.7 1 1.4 5 4.9 0.5 1 1.0 6 6.4 0.6 1 1.2 7 10.1 1.0 _2 1.2 8
.'s 1
I ! 11-35 Rev. 2 l ls ,. -, _ . , , , - - - -a.-.., ,..--n.,,- e r ,.
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;
- 12. SWWEILLANCE CF RVACUNTIGi OPERATIGE j l
O. Sare . is a need for surveillanos of traffic operations daring the j
/ evacuation. There is also a conccmitant need for tow-truck equipnent to clear any blockage of roncamys arising frun accidents or vehicle disablement. i s l Surveillance can take several faces:
- 1. Aerial patrol
- 2. Ground patrol
- 3. Fixed-point -
r
'Ihis plan calls for all foms of surveillance to be applied:
l 1. Aerial surveillance is offactive both day and night, weather permitting. %e aircraft reist have a connunication link to the EOC and , the pilots nust be trained to utilize dosimetry equipnent and be ,
' informed so that they can avoid the plume, if any.
l L '] 2. Grourri patrol surveillan is performed by the many amargency workers i', l who travel within' the EPZ as part of their emergency response l activities. %ese individuals includes bus drivers,. ambulance / van l drivers, personnel who notify people who are hearing inpaired people and l_ bus dispatchers. %ese emergency hr. would report the presence of l road 4-adi_mants to the amvriate emergency response personnel.
- 3. Fixed-point surveillance is provided by all traffic guides located at l the Traffic Control Posts and at the Access Control Posts.
%ese concurrent survaillanm s vci= lares are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery. With this coverage, any blockage caused by a diaabled vehicle should be quickly identified within a matter of minutest o Frun the air, a blockage is identified by a marked discontinuity in traffic density. Upstream of the blockage, evacuating vehicles will 12-1 Rev. 2
e exhibit a dense queuing pattern Wsile the highway downstream will exhibit a very low density. observing the- pattern Such a discontinuity of head-lights is , easilyand and tail-lights, detected by day, at nig directly. l . l o muergency respcmse mi.El travelling within the EPZ would diisctly l observe road i==di=nts. o Porsconal at the 'ICP and ACP wnld recognize that a blockage (beymd visible range) has occurred, when a pronounced and extended decrease in evacuating traffic voltans is observed along an evacuation route. Mtile short-tenn fluctuaticos in danand are ev=rvi, any sharp decrease in demand which prevails for nore than three minutes should be viewed as a
- synytau of a possible blockage scanswhere on an approach to the 'ICP 1
location. It is also probable that a passing motorist will inform the traffic guide that a blockage has taken place.
l 'Ihe traffic guide would innadiately report to the EOC or staging area that i an apparent blockage is taking place. If more than one guide is stationed at the
'ICP, than one officer can leave the post to investigate the cause.
Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle dinahlament is likely to arise due to nachanical failure or exhausting the fuel supply. In either case, the disimbled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring access for the following vehicles. l Based on vehicle-miles of travel during an evacuaticm of the entire Seabrook l EPZ and available accident statistics, the expected r- har of accidents would be labout 4 to 5 in Massachusetts and 5 to 6 in New Haapahire. Most accidents involving vehicles travelling at low speeds
- will not result in a vehicle di nablenant. Most of those that are riinabled can be pushed onto the shrmida".
*For exanple, the average vehicle speed for the case of Scenario 1 and Region 1, is under 6 miles an hour.
12-2 Rev. 2
L l t Experience in past emargencias indicate that such activities (i.e., pushing a n disabled vehicle to the side of the road) is oftan undertaken by other evacuees b who are anxious to continue their trips.
~
1 l While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the I circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a L lneed. Appcoxhnataly 12 tow trucks would be nore than adequate to perform this I l function. Icontions for tow truck deploynant should be selected so thats o '! hey permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes. o 'Ibw trucks roor..iing to a need would nost likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic. L I I l Table 12-1 lista locations for stationary tow trucks during an evacuation. All such equipnent should be located gff the major roads (e.g., in a parking l area) so as not to ingede traffic novenant. '!he function of such equipment is to clear the roads of any obstruction and to return to their original locations to await any subsequent call for assistance. 'Ihese tow trucks should all have
.O ccumunication equipnent linked, alther directly or indirectly, with the EDC.
'Ihey should also carry a supply of gasoline to assist any notorist who has I e.xhausted his/her fuel supply.
1 l l A study was conducted to evaluate the expected respense times of the l Massachusetts tow trucks to road i==4i==1ts. An "4==44=mt" is asstuned to be a l 1 l physical blockage of a road that cannot be removed without the assistance of a 1 1 l l tow truck. For pui.rses of the study, 4==li==1ts were assumed to be at the lothertowtrucklocations. l l l l Travel times were cal & ated using travel spaaria of 20 mph for travel on l linboundandnon-evacuationrtutes,55nphforinboundhighways,andtravelspeeds las predicted by the IDYNEV nodel for evacuation routes. 'Ihe travel time j l estimates indicate that as many as six of the available tow trucks could rasir.a.1 l l to an 4=wii= wit in any Massachusetts cczmunity within 15 minutes. l l ( 12-3 Rev. 2
1 ThBLE 12-1
;pd. ' row 'Imx ImATIas l
l l m. man General Descripticm l1. A=mahiry Massachusetts Electric Ccapany (MIK:0) l Substaticm, Mill Street l _ 2. Ammahny MIK:0 Substation, Allenclaire Drive l3. Newbury MB00 Substaticm, Highfield Road l 4. Ns%' port MICO Substatica, Water Street l5. h14 =htry MICO Substation, Beach Road l6. West Newbury ME00 Substatica, Stewart Street l7. Newington Mitchell's Exxon Service l8. Portsmouth O'Brien's Truck and Tractor l . 9. Greenland Naticmal Wrecker Service l10. Dover Dupont's Exxon l11. Newfields Amand's Auto Body l12. Exeter McCoy's Alignment Service l13. Exeter Al's Autanotive Service Centar l14. Plaistow Jack's Towing Service l15. Plaistow Russel K. 'Ihanas & Sons l16. Newton Estabrook's Garage l.17. Portsmouth Bob's of Portanouth l18. hhmok Circle Motors l19. Hanpton Frunk's Garage l20. Rye Sargent's Service Center l21. Rochester Lambert's Auto Salvage l22. hhmok Watt's Garage l l 1 12-4 Rev. 2
p 13. 02FIRMATICN TDIE Y. It is necessary to ccmfim that the evacuatica process is effective, in the sense that the public is oczuplying with the ceder to evacuate. Since it is not feasible to ocmfim the 714=nce of every household within the EPZ in a , ti2naly manner, a peore which enploys a stratified rar ixe sanple is recomanded.
'Iha size of the sanple is dependent an the expected ntanber of households which do not emply with the order to evacuate. He believe it is renscmable to assune, for the purpose of estimating sanple size, that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will cmply with the order to evacuate. Ch this
, basis, an analysis was undertaken (see Exhibit 13-1) which yielded an estimated sanple size of al-mi-tely 300.
'Ihe confimation sucs.ss should start at about 3 hours after the order to evacuate is announced or 1-1/2 hours prior to the EIE value, whichever is later.
Pbr exanple, if the ETE, referenced to the order to evacuate, is 6:30, then the O ocnfimation promes should begin 5 hours after the order. If the ETE is 3:30, l V then the confimation suc-se should begin 3 hours after the order to evacuate. At these tinas, for either case, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their rr: poctive trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic. As indicated in Exhibit 13-1, almost 8-1/2 person hours are needed to ccmplete the telephone survey. If 7 people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different ERPA), then the ocnfimation process will extend over a time frame of about 75 minutes. 'Ihus, the confimation should be ccmpleted about 15 minutes before the evacuated area is cleared (for those cases where the ETE a - ia 4:30) or up to 45 minutes after the area is cleared, for situations with shorter ETE. Of course, fewer people would be W for this survey if only a portion of the l EPZ is ordered to evacuate. l l l-l O 13-1 Fev. 2 l
i Should the ntuber of telephcne respcosas (i.e., people still at hme)
--x--J 20 percent, than the talophone survey should be repeated after an hour's
~
interval until the confirmaticn process is ocupleted. Sunmary of ETE i Ccnfirmation timme, as tabulated in Tables 10-10a through 10-10d are calculated on the basis that two persons are involved in the telephone survey if l Region 9 is evacuated, four persons if Regions 5-8,14 and 15 are evacuated, and l cne em.=cn per ERPA for Regions 1, 11, 12, 13, 16, and 17, i l 9 l. 13-2 Rev. 2
EXHIBIT 13-1 h AM ESTD9&ED NUMBER OF TNHCNE CATT A REQUIRED KR CNFIRMATION OF EVACUATION Problan Definition l Estimate number of phone calls, n, parlari to asartain the s W I.icn,'P of households that have not evacuated
Reference:
Burstein, H. , Attribute Samolinct, FIGraw Hill,1971 fdvan: No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est. ) = 55,000 Est. swiion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20 Allowable error margin, et 0.05 Ccnfidence level, cz: 0.95 (inplies A = 1.96) Applying Table 10 of cited reference, l p = P + e = 0.25 ; q = 1 - p = 0.75 A2pq+, n= = 308 O ' m Finite pcpilation cou=cnon: np = = 306 n+N-1 l
'Ihus, sczne 300 telephone calls will confim that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated. If only 10 percent of the population does not ccruply with the order to evacuate, then the required sample size, np = 215.
Est. Person Hours to cmolete 300 telechone calls Assume: Tim to dial using touch-tone (randczn selection of listed numbers): 30 seconds Time for 8 rings (no answer): 48 seconds Time for 4 rings plus short conversation: 60 sec. Interval between calls: 20 sec. Person Hours: 300(30+20+0.8(48)+0.2(60)]/3600 = 8.4 L l l l l l 13-3 Rev. 2 N l c I
,4 _+,,g .- -4A s > .A-a- ## m d4 was 4-Je-we - J-mi--ee *ddsae,M*m ei- --e== -' 4 A 4.aewre a= au.*J = --- 4s &hwd>.-- .am.a_. at, t
i 1 I J b Y APPENDIX A
.: Glossary of 'Duits x
APPENDIX At mwARY OF TERMS f} fu 'Dgm Definition Capacity Mav4 = = number of vehicles which have a reasonable expectation of passing a given section of roadway in j one directica during. a given time period under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions. 'Ihese are estimates which are expressed hs vehicles per hour (vph). Centroid An origin or destination located in the interior of
;
the network. j l
-]
Cantent Number of vehicles occupying a section of roadway at a l particular point in time. Destination A location in the network, either within the interior or on the periphery, to which trips are attracted. ' [_) L i Entry Node A network node, usually located on the periphery of a , network, which serves only as an origin. 'Ihat is,
- . vehicles are generated and mye into the network to
- travel toward their respective destinations.
1 Exit Node A network node, usually located on the periphery of a network, which serves only as a destination. 'Ihat : is, vehicles which arrive at an exit node are discharged from the network. l l Green-Time to Cycle Time The ratio of the duration of a green interval to l Ratio (G/C Ratio) the cycle length. 'Ihis ratio denotes the p.vysrt.Lon of time available to service a specified traffic mvement on a specific approach to an intersection. O A-1 Rev. 2 I i l l \ l
l s
- \
33gg Definition Internal Node All nodes which are not Entry or Exit nodes. Vehicles - travel through these nodes frm one link to the next along their zwgdvs paths toward their re p.crcive destinations. 1
-Imvel of . Service An index (A, B, ..., E) which is a qualitative descriptor of the operational performance of traffic cm a sectim of roadway, usually expressed in tems of speed, travel time or density. In practice, each Imvel of Service index is often associated with a range of service volumes. 'Ihis relation depends on l the type of facility (freeway, rural road, urban l street).
l Link A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length,
- l. number cf lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement piu A tages, service rate, free-flow
{- speed) characteristics. Measures of Effectiveness Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network. Node A network node generally represents a specific intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link. Origin A location in the network, either with.in the interior, or on the periphery, where trips are generated at a specified rate expressed in vehicles per hour (vph).
'Ihese trips enter the roadway syste to travel to their reogdve destinations.
A-2 Rev. 2
>-e e - e - < -- q -eiz -g g g g--,.i-p -- -e--aw , =um-- e, ew-.--w-ev -y-ree,,y,--,me- ees1 eve 3 - --w*e-r- -- wr ee s-ww = m-'
i i i lbgj Definition ! o , L'Hetwork A graphical representation of the geometric topology ! of a physical roadway syntan, which is emprised of l directional links and nodes. ! Prevailing roadway and Relate to the physical features of tJe roadway, the traffic conditions nature (e.g., exposition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient canditions (weather, visibility, ; pavument conditicms, etc. ). i Service Rate Maxinum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged fran a section of roadway at the prevailing carditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps). Service Volume Mav4 = = number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating emditions at a specified 1 Isvel of Service. (me service volume at Isvel of Servloe, E, is equal to Capacity.) Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph). Signal Cycle, Cycle Tire me total elapsed time to display all or Cycle or Cycle langth Iangth signal indicaticas, in sequence. Se cycle length is expressed in seconds. Signal Interval A single ambination of signal indications. %e interval duration is expressed in seconds. In general, several intervals, in sequence, emprise a phase, Signal Phase A set of signal indications (and intervals) which l services a particular combination of traffic nrmanents on the approaches to the intersection. We phase duration is expressed in seconds. k A-3 Rev. 2 l
1 i
.233 Definitian Traffic Assignment A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in Oi' such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., ;
the desi.to of each vehicle to travel fran a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and i to optimize scne stated objective or ocnbinatica of objectives. In general, the objective is stated in terns of minimiring a generalized " cost". For hwanple, "oost" may be expressed in terms of travel ! time. Traffic Density he number of vehicles which occupy one lane of a roadway secticn of specified length at a point of time, expressed as vehicles per lane-mile (vp1m or vpn) .
- Traffic Simulation A ocmputer model designed to replicate the renl-world -
operaticn of vehicles en a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic pericanance. Base statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness. Traffic volume me number of vehicles which pass over a sect. ion of roadway in on direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Mars applicable, traffic voline may be stratified by turn mvement. Travel lede Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail and air t travel modes. i Trip Table or Origin- A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain Destination Matrix t.he number of trips which are generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, which are attracted to (and travel toward) cme of the specified destinaticms. 'Ihese values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles. A-4 Rev. 2
_. . I 1 I i M Definition j
- 1 -(t nuning Capacity '!he capacity associated with that ocmpcnant of the j traffic stream which executes a specified turn I manswer fmn an approach at an intarsection.
4
)
i i l
,r' 1
( h L s o i t A-5 Rw. 2
- - - . . . ~ - - . - _ _ __ __ _
1 i
/ I 1
1 J I i i APPENDIX B l Traffic Assignment fedel t
' s k
t P l '. l l i I e l l
, -n, r--. . -v r---nr,- --- .. -, , ., , , ., . . mm,, .~,...--.w,-v.-, ,,..a..w,--_ .n--,,...,.._,...-nn- e,,,-~..,.,,....... . . . -
i APPENDIX Bt TRAFFIC ASSIGNDTP !ODEL f k l l This section describes the trip assignment and distribution modal l expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios. This model, named . l 'IRAD, which enploys equilibrium principles, is e#m+1mi within the IDYNLV System. l [ l In prior versions of IDYNLV, the analyst was required to exercise his ljudgmentinspecifyingatripdistributionwhichdefinesthenumberoftripsfrm , l each Origin Centreid within the area to be evacuated, that travel to each of the l specified Destination Centroids outside this area. Now the analyst need only l specify the capacity (i.e. "attraccian") of each Destination Centroid 'IRAD l will calculate the optdral trip distribution Aug the optimal trip assignment l (i.e., routing) which minimizes evacuse travel times. l Omrview of Intecrated Distribution and Assianment Model l l 'Ihe underlying premise is that the selection of destinations add routes is l intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario. 'Ihat is, to move people, in
'v l vehicles, out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible, cne mast l attempt to distribute vehicles fra origins to destinations add assign them over l the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner.
l l 'Ibe approach we will adopt is to extend the basic equilibrium assignment lmethodologytoembracethedistributionprocess,aswell. 'Ihat is, the selection l of destination nodes by travelers fran each origin node, add the selection of the l connecting paths of travel, are hggi etermined d by the integrated mode. 'Ihis l detemination is subject to specified constraints, so as to satisfy the stated l objective function. 'Ihis objective function is the statement of the User l Optimizatlan Principle by Wardrop. I l 'Ib accmplish this integration, we will leave the equilibrium assignment l model intact, changing only the form of the objective function. It will also be l necessary to create a " fictional" augmentaticu of the highway network. 'Ihis l augmentation will consist of Pseudo-Links and Pseudo-Nodes, so configured as to O B-1 Rev. 2
l mbed an equilibrium Distribution Model within the fabric of the Assignmant lModel. I Specif3 cation of TRAD Model Inoutz 0 l l l 'Ibe user nust specify, for each origin node, the average hourly traffic l volume. 'Ihers is D2 8Pocificatim of destination nodes. 'Ihe actual nabar of l trips generated at the origin node, which are distributed to each destination l node within this set, is dotarmined by the nodel in such a way as to satisfy the l network wide objective function (Wardrop's Principle). l l 'Jhe user nust also specify the total number of trips which can be l l accamodated by each destination node. We call this number of trips, the l" attraction" of the destination node, consistent with conventional practice. l Clearly,werequirethat l Aj 2 Mi j Aj (1) i which in1 plies E Aj 2 epi = E Mji (la) g j i i j ; where Aj = Total number of trips that can be acwmu. lated by destination, j l Pi = Production (generation) of trips at origin, i = Wij j l l Tij = Trips noving fran origin,1, to destination, j l l ap. 1 states that the total number of trips travelling to a destination, l j, frun all origin nodes, i, cannot exceed the attraction of destinaticn node, j. l By suming over all destination nodes, this constraint also states that the total l trips generated at all origin nodes nust not exceed the total capacity to l accamodate trips at all destinations. l l In sumary, the user nust specify the total trips generatai at each of the l origin nodes, the marim= number of trips that can be ah-- iated by each of the g ! B-2 Rev. 2 1
;
1 I
I
;
i l specified destination nodes and the highway network attributes which include the l traffic control tactics. 'Ihe TRAD nodel includes a function which expresses
'O l travel tire on each network link in tems of traffic volume and link capacity, t l 'Ihis function describes the underlying trip distributicm and trip assignment l decision-making process, ht is, as noted earlier, the selection of destination l nodes ggi of travel paths, by evacuees, is based upon the parceived need to l minimize evacuation travel time. As such, this integrated nodel is classified as '
l a behavioral nodel. l l At the outset, it nay appear that we have an intractable problem: l l o If 'IRAD retains the basic assignment algorithm, it must be provided a l Trip Table as input. I l o On the other hand, if the distribution nodal is m** within the
- l. assignment nodel, rather than goe=iing it, the user cannot specify l a Trip Table as input.
l l 'Ihe resolution of this problem is as follows: C l l 1. We construct an " augmentation" network which allows the user to l specify only the volume for each origin node. 'Ihe allocation of l trips from the origin node to each destination node, is not specified l and will be detamined internally by the nodel. I l 2. We construct pseudo-links which enforce the specified values of Aj l for all destination nodes, j, by suitably call 1 rating the l relationship of the travel time vs. volume and capacity. l l l 'Ihis augmented network is ccmprised on three sutnetworks: l l 1. h highway surnetwork, which consists of " Class I" Links and Ibdes. I l 2. A sutnetwork of " Class II" Pseudo-Links which acts as an interface l between the highway subnetwork and the network augmentation. A ! U B-3 Rev. 2 l
r ! i l
;
l 3. 'Ihe subnetwork of " Class III" Pseudo-Links and !bdes which co@ rises , j the network augmentation describad atxwe. l Figum B-1 depicts this configuration. Note that the Class II Links l connect each destination node in the highway sutnetwork with its counterprt l Invel I Pseudo-Node in the Class III suknetwork. 'Ihe need for these Class II l links w111 becme clear later. 'Ihe classifications are described below l l Cla== I Links and Wrlaa l l l 'Ihese links and nodes belong to the highway suknetwork and represent real l lsectionsofhighwayandintersections. Trips gensrated at each Origin (Centroid) l Node travel to a specified Class I link via a " connector" link. '1hese connecter l links are transparent to the user and offer no inpedance to the traveler - which l represents the aggregation of local streets which service the zonal gemerated l trips and feed thern onto the highway suinetwork. 'Ihe real-world destination l nodes are part of this subnet<ork. 'Ihe imediate approaches to these destination l nodes are Class I links. l Class II Links l l 'Ihese pseudo-links are constructed so as to connect each specified l destination with its Isvel 1, Class III Pseudo-Node (P-N) counterpart on a one-l to-one basis. I l l Class III Links and Nodes I l Class III links and nodes fann the augmentation to the basic network. l 'Ihese Pseudo-Links provide paths frun the Class II links servicing traffic j travelling frm the specified (real) destination nodes, to the Super-Nodes which l represent the user-specified sets of destination nodes associated with each loriginnode. I l Each Class of links provides a different functions i B-4 Rev. 2 O
I 1 l o CLsss I links represent the physical highway network. As such, each O l link has a finita capacity, a finita length and an estimated travel Q l time for free-flowing vehicles. 'Ihe nodes generally represent j
;
l intersections, interchanges and, possibly, changes in link gecnetry. J l 'Ihe topology of the Class I network represents that of the @ysical l highway syntan. . I l o '!he Class II links represent the interface between the Ital highway l subnetwork and the augmentation sutnetwork. '!hese pseudo-links are W to represent the specified " attractions" of each destination ; l l node, i.e., the n=wh= number of vehicles that can be am. iated l l by the facilities accessed frun each destination node. Instand of l assigning a capacity limitation to the destination nodes, we assign l this capacity limitation of the Class II Pseudo-MDht. Ibr our l purposes, this approach is much more suitable, ccmputaticnally. l l o '!he topology of the network augmentation (i.e., Class III Links and l tedes) will be designed so that all traffic travels to the Super-Node l and can only flow through the set of real destination nodes. l '!he Class II Pseudo-Links and the network augmentation of Class II l Pseudo-Nodes and Links represent logical constructs of fictitious links created l internally by the modes, which allows the user to specify the identity of all l destination nodes without specifying the distribution of traffic volumes frun the lorigintoeachdestination. I l Calculation of Cacacities and Inoedances l l Since each subnetwork performs a different function, it follows that each l class of links will exhibit different rugdes. Specifically, the l relationship between travel inr=4ance (which is expressed in tems of travel l tine) and both volume and capacity will differs l l o For Class I links, the capacity represents the physical limitation of l the highway elements. Travel inr=4ance is functionally expressed by l O B-5 Rev. 2
-l relating travel time with respect to the traffic volume-link capacity
} relationship.
i l o For Class II links, link capacity represents the max.inum number G l vehicles that can te accamodated at the (real) destination nodes l which form the upstream ncdes of each Class II link. Since Class II l links are Pseudo-Links, there should be virtually no difference in l L==4ance to traffic along Class II links when the assigned traffic l volume on these links is below their respective capacities, h t is, j the assignment of traffic should not be influenced by differences in j travel L M
-4ance on those Class II links where the assigned volumes l do not exceed their respective capacities.
I l o For Class III links, both capacity and impedanco have no meaning. l Since the Class II links limit the number of vehicles entering the l Class III subnetwork at all entry points (i.e., at the Invel I l Pseudo-Nodes) and since all these links are Pseudo-Links, it follows l that the Class III network is definitional1v an uncapacitated l l network. l Specification of the Obiective Punction O' l l It is conputationally convenient to be able to specify a single temco l (or " cost") function relating the travel time on a link, to its capacity and l assigned traffic volume, for all classes of links. To achieve this, we will l adopt the following form based on the original "BPR Formula": 1 _ _ _ T = To ( a 1+a bl + 0 1+a _) + I b2 l _Where, as for the pres,ent traffic assignment mcdel in IDYNEV, l T = Link travel time, sec. l To = Unig *-i link travel time, sec. I V = Traffic volume on the link, veh/hr l C = Link capacity, veh/hr l ai,bi = calibration parameters l a, E = Coefficients defined below B-6 Rev. 2 l
I i l I= LMnce term, expressed in seconds, which could represent turning l
~
l (~ l penalties or any othar factor which is justified in the user's V} l opinion l l me assignment of coefficients varies according to the Class in Wtich a llinkbelongs: i I l l .Claan a A .To l ; l I 1 0 L/Ut l II O 1 W , l III O O 1 i l Here, L is a highway link length and Ug is the free-flow speed of traffic , j on a highway link, m e values of at and b i, which are applicable only for Class l I links, are based on experimental datas l l a1 = 0.8 bi = 5.0-A l - U l % e values of a2 and b 2 , which are applicable for each Class II links, are i l based upon the absolute requirunant that the upstream destination node can
~
lservico no more traffic than the user-specified value of the mavi = = l" attraction". In addition, these parameters nust be chosen so that these l Pseudo-Links all offer the same tmr=4ance to traffic when their assigned volumes l are less than their respective specified mav1== attractions. - l l 2e weighting factor, W, is emputed internally by the software. l l Of course, it is still possible for the assignment algorithm within 'IRAD l to distribute more traffic to a destination node than that node can aR - date. l For mergency planning purposes, this is a desirable nodel feature. Such a l result will be flagged by the nodel to alert the user to the fact that scme l factor is strmgly nativating travelers to nove to that destination node, despite l its capacity limitations, mis factor can take many forms: inadequate highway
-l capacity to other destinations, lupp specification of candidate destinations g l for sme of the origins, or sme other design inadequacy. Se planner can D-7 Rev. 2 l
1
i l l l mg4 by modifying the cxmtrol tactics, changing the origin destination l distribution patter, ptwiding nore capacity at the overloaded destinations, etc. g W l l 1 i i i l l 1 J G l l B-8 Rev. 2 ,L L l.
FIGURE B-1 SCHDDLTIC T 'IHE SyggNmK S'IRUCIURE (~)N (,,
~
Aug:nantation Subnetwork \ of Class III Pseudo-Links arri !bdes So:ne of these Pseudo-Nodes also 1 ser/e as Super Nodes i I Set of L2 Vel '
? c * -u * =
w
- O.O A A D A O
j Oi I
' I l Interface E_ E,:f=">
Higday r 6 6 -6 dS'""
-77 Subner.w:rk J d Righ.my Subnetwork Cons. sting of Class I Links and !bdes
\
l
/
Set of h ' ------ ' A Cennecter}- rI; .. tbdes
.O V 3-9 Rev. 2 l
l' 1
. . . -. . . - . - .- .-. . . _ . . ~ . . - . - - . _
O 1 l 1 i 1 1 4 l l
)
l 4 APPENDIX C l
;
Traffic Sindation Model I-DYNLV P l 1 A l l , I l' 1 I
l
)
i APPIMDIX C l ( 'IRAFFIC SDMATICH KDEL: I-DYNEV
'N - l A nodel, named I-DYNEV, is an adaptation of the 'IRAFID Isvel II similatim nodel, developed by ED for the Federal Highway Administratim (FHNA), with extansions in scope to an --- " ate all types of facilities, mis nodel produces an extensive set of output 20E as shown in Table C-1. ]
Be traffic stream is described in taans of a set of Unk-specific statistical flow histograms. mese histograms (Figure C-1) describe the platoon structure of the traffic stream m each network link. %e sinulatim logic j identifies five types of histograms: I o %e DnRY histogram which describes the platoon flow at the upstrtom and of the subject link. '!ht.1 histogram is sinply an aggregation of the amyiate OUIWP turn-novenant-specific histograms of all feeder links. o We INPUT histogInna which describe the platoon ficw pattern arriving at l l the stop line. Wese are obtained by first disaggregating the DnRY histogram into turn-novament-specific wipst DnRY histograms. Each such mipet is nrxilfied to account for the platom dispersion which results as traffic traverses the link. %e resulting INPUT histc y = reflect the specified turn percentages for the subject link. o %e SERVICE histogram which describe the service rates for each turn novenant. %ese service rates reflect the type of omtrol devios servicing traffic on this approach; if it is a signal, then this histogram reflects the specified movement-specific signal phasing. A separate model was developed to estimate service rates for each turn movement, given that the control is GO. o te QUEUE histogram which describe the time-varying ebb and growth of the queue fornation at the stop line. 'INee histograms are derived frun the interaction of the re.pecdve IN histograms with the SERVICE hist &. 1 C-1 m.2
o 'Ihe OLTI histograms which describe the pattern of traffic discharging fmn the subject link. Each of the IN histograms is transfomed into an Otfr histogram by the control aglied to the subject link. Each of these Ot7f histograms is added into the (aggregate) DfIRY histogram of its receiving link. Note that this approach provides the I-DDEV nodal with the ability to identify the characteristics of each turn-covement-specific -wet of the traffic stream. Each conpanent is serviced at a different saturation flow rate as is the case in the real world. Furthermore, the I-DDEV logic will be able to recognize when one ecmpment of the traffic flow is encountaring saturation corx11tions even if the others are not. l Algorithms provide estimates of delay and stops reflecting the interaction of the IN histograms with the SDIVICE histograms. 'Ihe I-DYNLV logic also provides for properly treating spillback ccmditions reflecting queues extending fran one link into its upstream famier links. A valuable feature of I-DYNEV is its ability to internally generate functions which relate mean speed to density on each link, given user-specified estinates of free-flow speed and saturation service rates for each link. Such relationships are essential in order to sinulate traffic operations cm freeways and rural roads, where the signal control does not exist or where its effect is not the dcminant factor in inpeding traffic flow. All traffic sinulation nodels are data-intensive. Table C-2 outlines the input requirw ents of the I-DYNEV Model. I In order to apply the I-DYNLV Model, the physical traffic environment nust be specified by the user. 'Ihis input data describes: i o 'Ibpology of the roadway system o Gecznetries of each roadway cwwmt o Channelization of traffic on each roadway ecmpanent o Motorist behavior which, in aggregate, determines the operational performance of vehicles in the systan C-2 Fev. 2 O i
o Specification of the traffic ccntrol devices and their operational { g characteristics l V o Traffic volumes entering and leaving the roadway system ' o Traffic cm position.
)
'Ib provide an efficient fw - d for defining these specifications, the l
physical envim. it is represented as a network. 'me unidirectional links of ) the network generally represent roadway m.psnts: either urban streets or freeway segmsnts. The nodes of the network generally represent urban { intarsections of points along the freeway where a W..wic sup.m.i.y changes . (e.g. , a lane drop, change in grade or roup). Figure C-2 is an exanple of a network representation. 'me freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (1,2), (2,3), ..., (5,6). Links (8000,1) and (7,8002) are E:ntry and Dcit links, respectively. An arterial extends frm node 7 to node 15 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. h development of the I-DYNEV model followed directly after DYNEV was ccmpleted. 'me parceived need for I-DYNEV was based upon the requirement for a nodel having all the detenstrated capabilities of DYNEV, but one which ccmsumed less atmputer time and storage, h major distinction between DYNEV and I-DYNEV is that the lattar model directly calculatas the intecral of the histograms described earlier (see Figure C-1), instead of ccuputing the anplicudos of each histogram slice, as does DYNEV. One other difference is that in I-DYNEY, vehicles which cannot travel alcog thel.r assigned evacuation route due to excessive congestian will divert to another, altamative evacuation route if the lattar is not congestad. In all other respects, the two nodels are either identical (e.g., the input and output software) or are very similar, with any difference reflecting the major distinction described above.
' mis major distincticn results in software cade which censumes significantly less storage for I-DYNEV than far DYNEV, reflecting the elimination of large arrays ccntaining the anplitude values of each histogram slice. 'me reduced C-3 Rev. 2
1 l emputational burden is reflected in alnest a three-fold reduction in cmputing : tium. O; A thorough cmparison was made between the results generated by the two nodels. It was found that all pairs of results, DYNEY and I-DYNEV, were virtually identical for a wide variety of network configurations and traffic demand levels. Note that the two nodels require the ident.ical input stream and produce identical output formats. > On the ba?,is of these results, I-DYNEV is used exclusively for the I:ESF system, to calculate evacuation time estimatas. O O l l I i l C-4 Rev. 2 l l L l .. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . . _ . . . . _ . . , . . _ _ . .__... _ _ . ,_ . _ .. _ _ ___ ,,
l TMLE C-1 i p MEhSUUS T IFFIl[MVENESS OL7FPUT BY I-DYNilV , ( ' Measure M Travel Vehicle-Miles and Vehicle-Trips .
;
Moving Tian vehicle-Minutes , Delay Time Vehicle 4tinutes Total Travel Time vehicle-Minutes : Efficiency: M: wing Time /
'Ibtal Travel Time Percent r Maan Travel Time per Vehicle Soccaxis Maan Delay per Vehicle Seccnds Maan Delay per Vehicle-Mile Secxnds/ Mile Mean Speed Miles / Hour Maan W = ncy Vehicles Maan Saturation Percent l Vehicle Stops Percent i
1 l l-
'1hese data are provided for each network link and are also aggregated over the entire network.
C-S BBV. 2 L , 1
i i t USLE C-2 f ( INPUT RIMIREMINTS FGt DE I-DYNEV !ODEL GID 22RICS ; Links defined by upstream downstream node nubers Links lengths r mmber of lanes (up to 6) i Turn pockets i Grade ' Network topology defined in terms of target nodes for each receivjag 1. ink !
'mAFTIC V3.LMIS r
on all entry links and sink / source nodes stratified by vehicle typer auto, car pool, bus, truck Link-specific turn monsnants sg 0-D matrix (Trip "'hble) t l ULAF7IC COGROL SPECIFICATICNS Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific Cm trol may be fixed-time or traffic-actuated stop and Yield signs Right-turn-on-red (RICR) ! ,- Route divermica specificaticma l Turn restrictions Lane centrol (i.e., lane closure) l DRIVER'S IM) OPIRA27CNS CHARACTERISTICS , i Drivers (vehicle-specific) respcnae mechanisms: free-flow speed, aggressiveness, L discharge headway-Link-specific mean speed for free-flowing (uMW) traffic Vehicle-type operaticmal characteristics: acceleration, deceleraticn Such factors as bus route designatico, bus staticm locaticm, dwell time, headway, etc. C-6 Rev. 2
-em.. - , , , ,. ,- ~. .,n. . .-~ , . . ..,.,,___w ----e, . ., -- ,a ,..w..., ,- ,,,-, -
u i FIGURE C-1 e- S'DLTISTICAL REPRIEENDLTICM & 'IME ( TRAFFIC SIREAM PIA'ItXM S2RUCTtRE f t f 1 l I o e a N '
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l FIG RE C-2 i REPRESENRTIVE ANhLYSIS NETMEK
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& Entry, Exit nodes [
8 a re nur:0:e r ed ! , in the form, EXXX e.. I e < ;
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- - + 4 -- as -+ - - ---m4 -ems-l O l 1
I i f a l APPDOIX D , 1 1 1 1 l I l O
I APPENDIX D: DETAITm DESCRIPTION OF S'IUDY PROCIXRE
) 'Ihis apperx11x describes the activities to be perfomed in order to produce accurate estimates of evacuation tWnas on the Dnargency Planning Zone (EPZ) for a nuclear power plant. %e individual steps of this effort am represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1. Each niinta.Yd step in the description which fo11cus corresponds to the numbemd element in this flow diagram.
Steo 1. The first activity is to obtain data defining the spatial distribution of papulation within the EPZ. Specifically, obtain the population in each of 160 cells of a polar grid which is centered at the nucienr station, arx1 consists of 22.5 sections and rings spaced one mile apart. Transient population characteristics must also be estimted on the same basis. Steo 2. Ihe next activity is to examine a large-scale mp of the EPZ. mis map enables one to identify the access roads frm each residential developnant to the adjoining elernants of the analysis roadway network. mis information is necessary in order to assign generated trips to the correct links
,_ of the network. 21s map also enables one to mpresent the gecznetrics of ecmplex l
( intersections properly in tems of their network configuration. Step 3. With this infomation absorbed, the next step is to conduct a physical survey of the roadway system within the EPZ. We purpose of this survey is to detemine the necessary measurunents of roadway length and of the number of lanes on each link, the channelization of these lanes, whether or not there were any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections and to gain the necessary insight required for estimating realistic values of roadway capacity. At each major intersection, take note of the traffic control device ! which was installed. In addition, determine whether or not, under ernargency evacuation conditions, it would be possible to splay paved shoulders as an l ackiitional lane in the event such additional capacity was required. Sten 4. With this information, develop the evacuation network i representation of the physical roadway systm. l
o D-1 Rev. 2 l 1
i Steo 5. With the network drawn, g. w to estimate the capacities of each link and to locate the centroids where trips would be generated during theg evacuation process and then enter the analysis network.- W Steo 6. With all the infomation at hand, it is time to perfom the effort of creating the input stream for the Traffic Assignment Model. mis nodal was designed to be ccupatible with the Traffic Sinulation Model used later in the project, in the sense that the input femat required for one nodel was entirely cmpatible with the input format required by the other, thus avoiding duplication of efforts. This step in the p.vc.dare is lahm-intensive. Fortunately, this input stream need only be developed once. Any changes nede can be implemented quickly and at small cost. Bus, it is possible to execute these nodels on different scenarios with very little effort r* to nodify the basic input strnam to represent the specific attributes of each scenario. Steo 7 After creating the input stream by using PREDYN, execute the Traffic Assignment Model. mis conputar sup.-u contains upwards of 1,000 diagnostic inconsistencies and any other iupp input. mis diagnostic software produces messages which assist the user in identifying the source of the proble and guide the user in pre @g the necessary corrections. Steo 8. With the input stream free of error, execute the Traffic Assignment Model. The Traffic Assignment program is a very efficient software code. Steo 9. %e next activity is to examine critically the statistics produced by the Traffic Assignment program. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to detamine the causes of any problems reflected in the result. Essentially, the approach is to identify those " hot spots" in the network which represent locations where congestad conditions are extzme. It is then . l necessary to identify the cause of this congestion. mis cause can take nany forms, either as excess dwand due to iugvgr routing, as a shortfall of l D-2 Rev. 2 O
capacity, or as a quantitative error in the way the physical syst m was o mpresented in the input stream, i G '\ me examination of the Traffic Assignment output leads to one of two conclusions: o me results are as satisfactory as could be expected at this stage of the analysis process, or l 1 o Treatments nust be introduced in order to improve the flow of traffic. mis decision Inqui.res, of course, the application of the user's judgment based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the Traffic Assignment Model and a caparison of the Insults of this last case with the l previous ones. In the event the results are satisfactory, in the opinion of the i user then the process continues with the exercise of the sinulation nodel in Step
- 12. Otherwise, proceed to Step 10.
Sten 10. mere are many " treatments" available to the user in resolving i f.] such probles, mese treatments range fran decisions to rarcute the traffic by imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvmants in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or nere novmants, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the novament of traffic along major roadway systes or changing the trip table. Such " treatments" take the form of naiifications to the original input stream. We then perform the nodifications to the input stream, reflecting the control treat:msnts described above. As indicated previously, such nodifications ! are ingleented quickly to the extent that nore than one execution of the ccoputer pugcu is possible in a single day. Steo 11. As noted above, the physical changes to the input stream nust be l inpleanted in order to reflect the changes in the control treatments undertaken in Step 10. At the capletion of this activity, the process returns to Step 8 l where the Traffic Assignment Model is once again executed. l (V) D-3 Pav. 2
Steo 12. We output of the Traffic Assignment Model includes the cunpared turn rxnwants for each link. If the user is executing the Traffic Assignant and the Traffic Sinulation mdels in a single run, then this data is autanatically accessed by the lattar nodel. If the simulation model is executa:. separately, the user must nodify the input sttsam for the Traffic Assignment nodel by beginning in the turn-movernant data, using PREDYN. f Stoo 13. After the input stream has been debugged, the sim11ation model is executed to provide the user with detailed estimatas, expressed as statistical Measures of Effoctiveness pDE), which describe the detailed parfomance of traffic operations on each link of the network. Steo 14. In this step, the detailed output of the Traffic Sin 11ation Model is examined in order to identify once again the problans which exist on the network. Se results of the similation nrxial are extrumely detailed and are far nom accurata in their ability to describe traffic operations than those provided by the Traffic Assignment Madel, mus, it is possible to identify the cause of the problems by carefully studying the output. Again, one can impletant corrective treatments designed to expedite the flow of traffic on the network in the event that the results are considered to be less . efficient than is possible to achieve. In the event that changes are needed, the analysis process proceeds to Step 15. On the other hand, if the asults were , satisfactory, then one can decide whether it ic necessary to aturn to Step 8 to execute the Traffic Assigmnent Model once again and repeat the whole process, or to accept the fim1 results as being the "best" that can be achieved within the reasonable constraints of budget and tine allotartts. Generally, if there are no changes indicated by the activities of Step 14, than we can conclude that all results were satisfactory, and we can then Wead to document them in Step 17. Otherwise, we have to return to Step 8 in order to detemine the effects of the changes inplatented in Step 14 on the optimal routing patterns over the network.
'Ihis detemination can only be ascertained by executing the Traffic Assignrent Model.
D-4 Rev. 2
Steo 15. This activity inplements the changes in control treat:nants or in ,. the assignmnt of destinations associated with one or nere origins in order to , tg s inprove the flew of traffic ever the network. These treaunents can also include , the consideration of additional roadway sogents to the existing analysis network in order to disperse the traffic danand and thus avoid the focusing of traffic danand which can produce high levels of congestion. Stoo 16. Once the treatments have been identified, it is necessary to nodify the input stream accordingly. At the ocupletion of this effort, the edure returns to Step 13 to executa the sinulaticn nodal cnce nore. Stec 17. the sinulation results are than analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results are than documenttd, as Isquires. c D-5 Rev. 2
FIGlRE D-1 I
./ FIDW DIMEAM Of ACTIVITIES 2
1 r i i l Get ::cmegr:phic Cata Y 7 Study Large-Scale Map of CP"
'I 3 _
Survey tne Roacway System within the I?.'. I _4 Develop Network Representation l s_/ II 5 Est=ato Link Cacacities and Locate Centreids ! Y 6 Create the Input Stream for the Traffic Assign =ent Model [ 7 Debug the Input Strean lf A g a D-6 Rev. 2
i FIGRE D-1 ; HQ1 DIAGRAM OF ALTIVITIES (cont.) A U 8 l Execute the 4 raf fic Assignrent Model l U 9 I Examine Traffic Assignnent output ; Results are (Itcratc) 1 "'B
/ Satistactory Changes Needed U 10 Develop Control Treatments and/or ttodify Trip Table ,
to Improve Results i' I 11 Modify the Input Stream to Reflect the Changes of Step 10 l l l l l~ s, m.2 O
FIGERE D-1 7's FIIM DIMBAM OF ACTIVITIES (ocmt,) i )
'O R
I 12 - Complete Innut Stream for the ; Traf fic Simulation l'odel by Incoroperating Traffic , Assionnent Outputs U i. w Cxucute the
-,- Simulation Model 4
II 14 Examine Traffic - Simulation Output ' i ' rs No Changes to 17 ! ! ) ' IECI***I l Results are the Traffic "" Docarent Assignment 9esults Changes Satisfactory - \ Outouts Needed II 15 Develop Control Treateents and/or Modifv Trin Table Thoso 9esults to Improve Results Reflect Changes Made in Sten 15 P 16 i Modify the Input Stream to Reficct e. he A (Iterate)
- .C_h,annes of Stoo 15
=
t) D-8 Bev. 2
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APPENDIX E Literature R8 View and Data W 1 g m m g
\
.I
APPENDIX E LITERATURE REVIEW AIO DATA CEPILED 'IO DATE DO 1. State of New Hampshire, Department of Resources and Econcunic Developnent, Division of Parks and Recreation PeMa are kept of the number of parked vehicles at all state parks. Park attendance is inputed fran this data by assuming an average value of vehicle occupancy:- Park Attendance Based on 3.5 Persons per vehicle Sumar, 1983 Sumar,1984 Seacoast Recion (13 weeks) (13 weeks) Ft. Constitution 2,000 2,000 Hampton Bathhouse 204,200 170,700 Odiorne 18,200 19,500 Rye Picnic Area 15,900 C 'N 15,100 V Wallis Sands 99,300 70,000 Wentucrth-Coolidge 1,500 1,300 341,100 278,600
- 2. Town of Hampton, Department of Public Works 1
One way of estimating chances in population, is to measure the flow of sewage. As indicated below, the highest daily flow occurs over the July 4th ! Weekend. 1 1 I I E-1 Rev. 2
T Average Flow per Day l(millions of gallons)
- - O.
July 4th Weekend 3.61 2.77 (four days) All of July: 3.21 2.63 Excess on. July 4th Weekend ' Relative to Month of July: 12.5 5.3 (percent)- .
- 3. Hampton Beach Traffic Study: Report ccupiled by Dufresne-Henry, Consulting Engineers, for the 'Ibwn of Hampton, NH; date August 1,1984 '
'Ihe following statistics have been culled frm this reports a) Approximately 3,400 people use the State Park beach (adjoining the bath house) on a peak day.
b) Off-street parking area for this facility is approximately 1,200 spaces, c) Other off-street parking lots included: Church St.: 400 cars Ashworth: 580 Island Path: 315 Casinos 530 Playgrourris 230 Marit ant 453 Ocean Blvd. N.: 139 t Ch-street: E
'IUIAL: 2834 E-2 Rev. 2
d) Cites a tai State Planning study which estimates that the beach f ~\ V- (other than that near the bathhouse) can accanadate 15,600 people i at high tide and 31,300 people at low tide. Including the State Park-would raise these estimates to about 19,000 and 34,700, respectively.
- 4. Regionwide Systems Performance Study Update: Working Paper ju.W by {
Nrr4=c Valley Planning Cmmission, dated July 1985 l
'Ihis report presents the results of capacity analyses conducted on the heavily travelled roads within the MVPC region. Se Iavel of Service (IOS) describing traffic flow conditions is presented for all surveyed roads in each town:
Percent of Roads with Isvel of Service twn A B C D E I Newburyport 84.7 3.8 11.5 O 0 0 0 V Newbury 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 pr"i me 100.0 0 ' 0 0 0 0 Amesbury 82.7 8.7 4.3 4.3 0 0 Salisbury 86.5 8.1 0 0 5.4 0 West ihmbury 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 he term, " Level of Service" (106) is definea as follows: I&gi Definitier} A Free flow. Users virtually unaffected by others in the traffic stream. B Stable flow. Presence of other users in the traffic stream begins to be noticeable. Freedczn to select desired speeds is relatively unaffected. E-3 Rev. 2
l l 14!(i . Definition l C . Stable flow. Users significantly affected by interactions with others in i traffic stream. Selection of speed affected by pasence of others. l D High density, but stable. Speed selection and freedan to maneuver are severely restricted. l E Usually unstable. Operating conditions at or near capacity. l low, but relatively uniform. SMa are l Small increases in flow or minor i perturbations can cause breakdowns in traffic flow, 1 i F Forced or " breakdown" flow. Trarfic demand exceeds capacity. Queues are formed and stop-and-go operations result. Wese definitions are adapted fran the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual. l According to this . study, drivers in the indicated towns generally enjoy ' traffic conditions which are free flow or stable. mis condition implies that there is substantial reserve capacity available, relative to normal peak-period traffic deand. Se lone _ exceptions are in Salisbury where Route 1 intersects
)
Routes 286 and 1A/110, respectively. A subsequent study (see below) indicated a IOS of F for the latter intersection during peak hours. 1 1
- 5. Salisbury Center Traffic Study: Draft Report prepared by MVPC, dated- l March 1985 l
tis study focused on traffic conditions on the approaches to Salisbury Center -- the intersection of Routes 1,1A and 110. Traffic counts were taken . during the sumer of 1984; peak hour traffic volume data is given belows i l-t l-1 E-4 Rev. 2
i:c East or West or Road Ibrth-Bound South-Bound
%)
Rt. IA: Beach Road, E-W 1473 910 Rt. la Iafayette Road, N-S 576 693 I Rts. 1, lAt Bridge Road, N-S 1647 1173 Rt. 110: Elm Street, E-W 842 900 i i i 7hree alternative designs were subnitted to the Ubwn of Hanpton; one of the these ma found to be acceptable, with same nodification. This choice , involved, among other factors, channelizing Beach Road as a four-lane road in the i vicinity of the intersection and installing a signal there. (
- 6. Econanic Impact of Certain Shoreline Users on the thw Hampshire Coastal l Zone, prepared by the Southeastern New Hampshire Regional Planning l Ccmnission, dated October 1975 1
'ntis. study acquired data using observers stationed along the access roads p to the beaches. Observers also conducted surveys on the beach and along Ocean i V Blvd. Aerial photographs were taken and the vehicle population as estunated fran these photos.
The data ws stratified by four coastal areas: !
;
- 1. Not Sandy: Hilton Park, Great Island Ccmuon, Odiorne's Point, Rye Harbor State Park
- 2. South Sandy: Seabrook, Hampton State Beach, Cottage Beach, Hampton Beach
- 3. Mid Sandy: North Beach, Plaice Cove, IJ.ttle Boar's Head i
- 4. North Sandy: Rye Beach, Jenness Beach, North Beach, Wallis Sands Car occupancies and number of parked cars mre recorded on days which represented " good beach weather":
I O E-5 Rev. 2
l Iccation: ' Not South PJ.d - North f!ADdY M .SeDdY .340dY
/
Avg. Car occupancy (persons): 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.1 ! TTALS Cars Counted weekday: 103 7,496 1,005 897 9,501 Weekend (max. of. Sat. & Sun.): 639 8,269 2,053 1,689 12,650 Est. People on coast Weekday 300' 25,900 '3,000 2,900 32,100 Max. Weekend day: 2,100 28,600 6,200 5,400 42,300 1 Perrentaces Overall 3.5 73.8 12.3 10.4 100.0 ' Day-Tripper 83 44 51 55 45 Vacationer 17 56 49 45 55 L
- 7. -
. Parking Analysis using Aerial Photographs L
KLD was provided with 9 sets of color-slides containing aerial views of
' the entire coastal area within the Seabrook EPZ, from southern Plum Island on the ,
south to the Portsmouth area on the north. Each set consists of approximately 55 - slides, representing one sortie along the coast. Each set was analyzed by employing a slide projector and a screen. For each set, the number of vehicles parked within the EPZ along the beach areas was detennined, together with an estimate of parking capacity. All vehicles sighted on the film were counted, including those in designated parking lots, in unmarked (and unpaved) lots used by parked vehicles, along the cuzi)s, in driveways and in backyards and on front lawns. Capacity was estimated by: E-6 O Rev. 2
I o Counting the parking stalls in all marked parking lots
,n .
5,) o. Measuring the length of unoccupied curb space and expressing this distance in tems of cars o Assunting that all open, accessible lots could be occupied to their full extent -
- o. Assuming that private driveways, front yards and backyards would be utilized for parked cars Many of these unpaved lots are at significant distances frm the beach-(1/2 to 1 mile) and are thus relatively unattractive. Other locations (e.g. on Plum Island) are attractive only to those who seek relative solitude; in a practical sense, such capacities are overstated. We believe that these capacity estimates represent a reasonable upper bound to the number of possible parked vehicles in the indicated areas.
, te statistics describing actual parked vehicles presented below for each ffd- section- of the coastal region, are derived frm aerial films taken on Sunday, l August 11, 1985 in the early afternoon.
te weather on that day was described as clear, with ta perature approximately 90 degrees - ideal conditions for attracting day-trippers to the beaches. Estimate of Parking Vehicte Count ' Coastal Section Capacity (cars) (all vehicles tvoes*) Plum Island (MA) 2830 1440 (51) Salisbury Beach (MA) 8060 5800 (72) Seabrook Beach (NH) 2650 2280 (86) (~h E-7 Rev. 2
Estin te of Parking Vehicle Count Coastal Section Caoacity Icars) Hampton Baach (E ) 7770 5720- (74) North of M 51, incl. North Beach ( E ) 1300 990 (76) Plaice Cove, Little Boar's Head, Bass Beach (E) 600 500 (83) Rye & Jenness Beaches
& Straw Point ( E ). 1440 950 (66)
Wallis Sands, Odiornes Point-(E) 820 540 (66)
'Ibtals: 25,470 18,220 (71.5)
- 8. Beach Population Analysis using Aerial Photographs Separately, KID obtained 3 aerial photographs of Haupton Beach which were 11" x 17"'in size. These photographs were taken on July 4, 1983. It was agreed by all officials interviewed that 1983 was the peak year for beach attendance and-that the Fourth of July weekend appeared to attract just about the heaviest crowds of the season. Both assessants were supported by data describing traffic
' counts at permanent State counters (A' irs) and by examining sewage flows (see its 2, above). U On this basis, we concluded that by. counting individual people on the beach for. that day, we would have an spirical basis for an independent estimate of beach population. Review of these photos revealed that: o he most crowded portion of the beach was opposite the Casino, which was also closest to the sanitary facilities maintained by the State.
*Few bused were observed; RVs constituted less than 2 percent of the total count.
Values in parenthesis are vehicle count as percent of capacity. E-8 Rev. 2
l l g o Few people, relatively- speaking, were observed off the beach at that k,) time of day. Traffic flow was extrmely light and only a harriful of people were visible inland of the beach. , Both observations were confirmed by lE Parks Department personnel as consistent with their experience. A large-scale photo of this beach area was examined and, with the help of a magnifying glass, a count of people was undertaken. A check confinned that a total of about 1160 persons were on the beach and on the abutting sidewalk near the State facilities. l L 1 A subsequent measurm ent of this beach area using a naasuring wheel indicated a total area above the high-tide line of approximately 75,500 sq. ft. We photos also revealed that few, if any, blankets were spread on the seaward - ' side of the high-tide line the sand was wet throughout the low tide period. (At other locations, the sand drained and people did spread their towels on the seaward side of the high-tide line.) We thus canputed the practical upper bound 1 Q of people density on dry beach area to be approximately 65 sq. ft, per person.' t I We are not suggesting that a higher density is not attainable. tere - were, in fact, small clusters of higher density groups of people. Rather, this data indicates that a substantially higher density at Hampton Beach is not likely to be realized, when large areas of beach are considered, given the current limitation on available parking capacity.
'Ihese photographs also indicated that the density of population on the beach, outside of the area in front of the casino, was sanewhat lower than the figure given above. We therefore believe that use of the 65 sq. ft. per person, applied to the entire beach area in Hampton Beach, will overstate the actual population, aanewhat.
l-I l 1 9 (v E-9 Rev. 2 l I l~ 1
\
1 1
- 9. 1983 Beach Area Traffic Count Prtgram: Seabrook Station EPZ, report prepam d by HMM Associates, dated February 1984 mis report describes the results of a comprehensive traffic count g y mu undertaken during the sumer of 1983. Hourly, directional traffic counts are' I l
provided at each of six locations extending from just north of NH 51 on Route 1A, ' to just west of the anusement area in h14 =h try, on Beach Road (Rt. lA). 'Ihis area includes Hampton, Seabrook and 2 14ahary beaches.
%e report acknowledges that the data cannot be used to estimate the.
number of vehicles within the beach area at a given time (p. 3-4). Yet data is j presented which indicates that on the peak day (July 16th), the nav4 = = accumulation relative to 4:30 A.M., was about 9,000 cars at 2 P.M. (On a 24-hour basis, the nav4= = accumulation as about 6,200 cars. ) The maximum rate of accumulation over one hour as less than 2,000 vehicles.
%e estimate of peak aelation of transient vehicles used in the HMM evacuation study as 12,900, some 43 percent higher than the peak value of 9,000 measured. l HMM also estimated same '10,400 vehicles belonging to permanent, !
seasonal and overnight persons, for a total of 23,300 vehicles. In 1982, the i peak accumulation ms about 7,400 vehicles. 1 Peak, two-di.rw:: tion traffic volumes (veh/hr) were (approx. ): Route 1A, Hampton: 1700 Route 51, Hampton: 1700 Route 1A, Seabrook: 2100 NH 286, Seabrook: 1600 Route 1A, Salisbury: 1500 Bridge Street, h14 ahl ry: 1800 l A total of 19,400 vehicles exited these beaches over a 6 1/2 hour period. We peak hour volume was just under 3,900 vehicles. Of course, this figure is probably below the aggregate roadway capacities and should not be interpreted as i an upper bound, l E-10 O h.2 l
Weekday traffic was about 75 percent of weekend traffic. Q C,/ 10. Beach Capacity Analysis for Shoreline Areas Around Seabrook, IMw Hampshire, prepared by HMM Associates, dated June 1982 mis study investigated beach usage and capacity characteristics. Se 1 coastal area considered lies between the Parker River thtional Wildlife refuge on i i Plum Island, MA, north to ConccId Point, north of Rye Beach. Ibwever, data was l. presented for both Wallis Sands State Park and Oiiorne Point State Park, both of which are north of concord Point. Total annual at+&ce at the four coastal state parks generally ranged between 250,000 and 300,000, with a long-term trend that was essentially flat between 1970 and 1981. Se annual attendance at Hampton Beach State Park ranged I l frm about 150,000 to 180,000, in general. I Vehicle parking capacity was estimtad at 19,212 vehicles. 21s capacity included parking lots and on-street curb parking, but my not have included ; driveways and backyards. p-G ' Studies of population on the sandy beach areas yielded observations consistent with ours (see item 8). Specifically, careful analysis indicated that l a perfunctory assessment of beach population would yield overestimates of beach density since, at any tine, many beach towels are unoccupied. It was also determined that the casino area of Hampton Beach was of particular interest. ; i me study conducted a " peak day - peak area" analysis of beach density. Specifically, sampling areas, upwards of 3,500 sq. ft. were selected which represented "the nest crowded section within the (beach) segment", thus providing an upper bound of beach density. %e report cautions the reader not to assume I that such peak values are applicable to the entire beach segment (p. 3-13,14). For example, while the peak density for the major Hampton Beach segment la 44 sq. ft. per person, an average density calculated using six mitng " plots" was 62 sq. ft. per person. (his figure cmpares with 65 sq. ft per person measured by KW -- see item 8.) O V l E-ll Rev. 2 l 1 { __ . .-. . _ _ - _ - _ _ _ - . _
l l 2 e observation is m de that even on peak days over a 3-year study period, I "several parking lots ... are not filled to capacity". Se total pad.ing capacity was estinted at about 19,200 vehicles. On ~ this basis, assuming 3.3 person per vehicle, a " realistic" capacity estimate of 63,400 persons is offered. l
- 11. Roadway Network and Evacuation Study (for) Saabrook, New Hampshire,
- prepared by Wilbur Smith and Associates, dated December 1974
\ l 21s report describes the assunptions used, the highway capacities-estimated, the traffic anagment techniques to be applied and the evacuation time estimates (ETE). Several evacuation s narios are considered. S e analysts methodology is not described in any detail. It appears to be L based on an assumed speed of travel for each roadway, the estimated roadway capacities and estimated traffic d e ands. In the " controlled sector evacuation" it is assumed that people in sme of the designated sectors will wait patiently for other sectors to be evacuated, before beginning to evacuate (Fig, following p. 36). Ort this basis, an ETE of slightly over 3 hours is predicted. For sinultaneous evacuation of the entire - l EPZ, an ETE of just under 7 hours is predicted.
- 12. Estimate of Evacuation Times, prepared by Alan M. Voorhees & Assoc.tates, dated June 1980 (Final Report, August 1980)
'Ihis report describes the estimation of ETE fr m the Seabrook EPZ.
- e L Several scenarios are considered: Sumer Sunday, Winter weekday, normal and v severe weather. Estimates of ETE are presented (hrsimin):
o Sumar Sunday - 6:10 ) o Winter weekday - 3:40 normal weather; 4:30 severe o Selective evacuation - 5:10 to 6:10 Se population estimtes are: 111,000 permanent residents and 78,000 seasonal and transient. These estimates are projections to 1978 frm the 1970 l E-12 Rev. 2
census. Highway' capacities are set to 1200 veh. per hour for all but the rm interstate routes; capacities for 195 and I495 are not given. x)
- 13. Evacuation Clear Time Estinates for Areas Near Seahtook Station, prepared by HMM Associates, Inc., revised July 1983
'Ihis report provides ETE for the %hrook EPZ, corresporxiing to five conditions. Se ETE (hrsimin) for an evacuation of the entire EPZ are:
i Sumar Weekend - 6:05 l Sumar Weekday - 4:10 '! Off-season Weekday - 3:10, fair weather off-season Weekday - 4:10, adverse weather l Highway capacities are calculated internally by the NE1VAC model, bassi on : the procedures of the 1965 Highway Capacity Manual. .'Ihese capacities may be modified, over time, as traffic patterns change. Nim %C is a macroscopic traffic l simulation model developed for analyzing traffic operations during an evacuation n and' for calculating ETE. We traffic demand volumes used for this study excluded the towns of 1 Portsnouth, Kingston and Newfields. R us, the total permanent population in 1983 was estimated to be about 122,300. An average vehicle rency of 3.0 persons was assumed; this would yield a demand of about 40,800 vehicles. 'Ibtal seasonal ; demand was estimated at 39,500 vehicles for weekends (Figure 6). Daily seasonal transient vehicle counts were estimated at 17,150 for the weekend and 6,870 for j weekdays. Manufacturing enployment within the EPZ was estimated at 7,500 -i vehicles. No allowance was made for double-counting; i.e. people who worked within the EPZ or went to the beach, and who also resided within the EPZ. Also, seasonal demand includai 2,000 utility erployee vehicles at the Station. It was assumed that all evacuating vehicles enter the highway system at the constant rate of 20 vehicles per minute, throughout the EPZ. his rate was doubled at major euployment locations for the weekday scenarios (e.g., at Seabrook Station and at the Greyhoumi Park).
'A .i V E-13 Rev. 2
- 14. An Independent Assessment of Evacuation Time Estimates for a Peak Population Scenario in the Dnergency Planning Zone of the Seabrook Nuclear Pcuer Station, prepared by Pacific Northwest Laboratory, dated October 1982 21s &%i presents the results of an ETE analysis of the entire . EPZ under the single scenario of a peak population condition. This report was "not intended for use by decisionmakers during mergencies", but rather as an independent evaluation of other ETEs.
A total of 95,800 evacuating vehicles is estimated for this scenario, including 44,000 for permanent residents and 51,800 for seasonal and transient 7 population. Rese estimates were derived frcan an NRC reports
%saphic and Vehicular Danard Estimates for an Evacuation Analysis of the Seabrook Station, prepared by M. Kaltman of the Siting Analysis Branch, dated February 1981 2e estimate of seasonal population was approximately 43,000 on the weekend, ccupared with 30,500 on a typical weekday. % ese estimates assumed 7.6 persons per dwelling on a weekend and 5.4 on a typical weekday. (he inputed number of seasonal dwellings is about 5,700.)
me PSNH study assumed 2.0 vehicles per dwelling; the NRC argued for a - figure of 2.5. (KID's on-foot survey recorded an average value of 2.6 vehicles per dwelling.) In addition, overnight am---/etions were surveye:1 to obtain an estimate of 'about 4,600 roms within the EPZ. Each occupied recrn was assumed to generate one vehicle. C-wwunds cantained space for about 3,150 vehicles. i Beach area parking -- both lots arri on-street -- is estimated at about L 17,500 spaces. Weekend bus activity is low -- on the order of 10 trips. (mis l was confirmi in KID interviews with local officials.) It was also assumed that sme 2,200 vehicles park during the weekend at non-seasonal housing units. About E-14 Rev. 2 O
i 3,100 vehicles are estimted for the Greyhound Park and another 5,100 vehicle spaces in parking lots along Route 1. ;
/-~T -()
Nanufacturing and industrial sploymnt within the EPZ is estimtad at about 12,200 persons. (Of course, any of these persons also live within the . EPZ.) An assunption of one vehicle per worker was applied. A very thorough inventory as undertaken of hotels, cmwwands, schools and special facilities. h m'E were calculated using the CLEAR model which similates the mvement ' of vehicles along specified " free" networks. Trip generation tim ms assumed to be one hour for the beach traffic and 1.5 hours elsewhere. No basis was presented to support this approach.
'Ihe ETE obtained for this study as 11:40 (hrstmin). The conclusions included the following cmment:
'Ihe data presented in this report suggests that an evacuation tim of 6 to O
Q 7 hours is possible under peak conditions if a high level of effectiveness and traffic optimization are achieved. An evacuation tim estinte in the range - of 10 to 12 hours represents the time estimate for an evacuation under peak conditions if a relatively unimproved level of traffic control exists.
- 15. Population Estimates for 'Ibwns within the Seabrook EPZ We have obtained the mst recent population projections for the towns within the Seabrook EPZ:
o 1985 Population Estimates for towns in Massachusetts were provided by the Division of Health Statistics and Research, Department of Public Health of. the ComKrzwealth of Massachusetts o 1984 Population Estimates of New Hampshire 'Ibwns were provided by the New Hanpshire Office of State Planning.
- O E-15 Rev. 2
)
;
1., Both sets of data ware ptwided to us in September 1985. All estimatesg were projected forward to 1986 using the nest recent annual growth rates for eachW town. We also ecntacted the 'Ibwn Clark's offices to obtain independant estinates based on local census activities. 'Ihase estimates are also shown below: 1986 'Ibwn Clerks
'Ibwn Proiected Pornlatim hviv 1985 Massachusetts Whg i 14,982 14,056 Marrimac 4,760 4,364 Newbury 4,759 5,423 Newburyport 16,615 16,300
*14ahrvy 6,276 6,645 West Newbury 3,023 3,260 Nev' Hamoshire Brentwood 1,939 2,000 E. Kingston 1,202 1,250 Exeter 11,828 11,600 Greenland 2,281 2,200 Hampton 11,656 13,000 Hampton Falls 1,514 1,450 Kansington 1,539 1,350 Kingston 5,180 4,890 New Castle 798 625 Newfields 926 850 Newton 3,722 3,625 North Hampton 3,632 3,600 l- Portsmouth 28,404 26,300 Rye 5,059 5,000 Seabrook 6,649 8,000 l' South Hampton 653 700 i
L Stratham 3,232 3,300 EPZ 'IDIAL: 140,629 139,788 E-16 Rev. 2 O
- ~. -. -.
,e -
- 16. Duergency Planning Zone Evacuar. ion Tim Study hhmdt Nuclear Power t
Station, Seabrook, IE, prepare:i by Costello, Ianamney arrd deNapoli, Inc. in association with C.E. Maguire, Inc. , dated March 1984
'Ihis report presents the results of an evacuation study for the hhmok EPZ. These results included projections to the yaars 2000 and 2030, in addition to 1985.
'1he permanent resident population within the EPZ in 1985 is estimated at about 127,700 persons. Sumar weekend transient population for 1985 was projected at about 173,100 persons. Institutional population approximated 2,200 patients and 1,300 support staff. School population is estimated at about 29,600 students and 3,300 support staff. Non-car-owning population was estimated using 1970 consus data rates.
'1he ETE estimates for the enti.re EPZ are presented below:
Scenario ETE (hrsimi) Winter Day 3:00 Summer Weekday 4:30 Sumar Weekend 5:50 Winter Day with snow 5:30 l Sumer Weekend, rain & fog 7:40 1 1 (Add 15 minutes to account for notification time.) l 17. 'Iblephone Survey of Residents of Seabrook EPZ, conducted by First Market L Research using a survey instrument developed by KID Associates, dated L October 1985 On October 3-7, 1985, telephone interviews were conducted among heads of households within the Seabrook EPZ. A total of 10,567 calls were made. Of these,1,382 interviews were empleted.
,G V E-17 Fev. 2 l
l l l l l
,Y' The survey instrument was designed to obtain up-to-date data on demographic and travel information which is nasriad to satisfy the inpu requirments for evacuaticn study. mis information, -which should also be of value for other planning agencies, is presented elsewhere in this report.
- 18. Survey of Traffic Movements on the Beach Access Roads Merrimac Engineering Services, Inc. was retained to acqui.re vehicle counts '
during the last week in August 1985 and over the Iabor Day rail. D ese counts include vehicle counts, observaticos of vehicle occupancy (i.e. persons per vehicle), and license plate numbers and State of origin.
%e weather over this period of time was not part-ioilarly a,maaling to beach-goers, ~ so the data will not reflect peak conditicms. Nevertheless, the counts of vehicle r=ncy which were taken are probably representative of beach traffic, albeit there is scue uncertainty on this point. Also, the license plate l data provides an indication of the points of origin of visitors.
- 19. 1980 Census Data Most of the early studies sployed population statistics which were projections based on the 1970 census data. Kr.D reviewed available 1980 census data for the towns. within the EPZ, which are relevant to the evacuation study.
%ese data are presented in Appendix H.
l l20. Aerial Beach Survey - July 18, 1987 l l On July 18, 1987 Avis Airmap, of Braintree, Massachusetts, took a series l of 58 aerial photographs of a one mile wide coastal area ranging frcan hahrook l Station to 15 miles south an Plum Island to 12 miles north at Cdiorne Point. 'Ihe l flight was conducted at noontime Sunday with sunny warm weather in the mid-80's. l Mis weather attracted an attendance at the beach which was ccuparable to that on lthepeakdayofJuly16th,1983. l l 2e number of parked vehicles and the number of vehicles in transit were lcountedfrcmtheenlargedphotographs. Se beach population for the seacoast had E-18 Rev. 2
I
. r~N previously 2-3); been detennined to peak at 2:00 p.m. on sumer weekends (see thus it was necessary to adjust the number of vehicle to account for a ~
projected increase between the time of the aerial survey and 2:00 p.m. 'Ihis adjustment provided the following results: I 1 Beach Observed Projected Observed location Parked Parked Vehicles (Towni Vehicles Vehicles in Transit
- a. Plum Island 2,799 3,095 103 (Ipswich, Rowley, Newbury, a W rt)
- b. Salisbury 5,548 6,119 153
- c. Seabrook 2,785 3,040 123 73 d. Hampton 12,210 O 13,257 750 !
1
- e. North Hanpton 1
286 308 109
- f. Rye 3,222 3.474 2
L 'IDIAL i 29,293 1,440 ,
'Ihis projecte:1 estimate of 30,733 vehicles (29,293 + 1,440) represents a i reasonably ETTE.
expected peak and is used as an input to IDYNEV model for calm
'Ihis estimate represents an approximate 15% increase over the 1985 estimate ldetailedinitem7. l
)
l V E-19 Rev. 2
. _ _ - - .__a
J m .*m+
- 4Je,s ,*d.s- m e--- di.-e.-.a .*A4 .-seg +-ew.,
1
.i ,
l l t APPENDIX F Tel @ SuZw y Instrument l O
p APPENDIX Ft TEMPKNE DemtHENP i
;
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- 1. 1 ir.at eenene a re. ... 1x. c:L. . 123*ss s90 tagerustsee ottauen will te u.ee as a ~ ;&. ; 3 13J6367890
..as ta e is.en. ,. eme , o.
van ore,usen lana see thei. sso-ent..o...e. in CUL..'. t = le stauan,
- 3 feaste tyrskytami Ass 10 s,sas 10 tas uAD ct 50Ustacta CL TEE tr0Ust et Tut staD er 305BWR S.
- 1. la esas name er esamesey en you 1& vel (to art LEAD.)
M CDL.,,Q g COL.1 i ammeemry. 5 1 newowry. M , 1 savouryport. MA
- Plass Laland 2 Scememmen. NE 3 pew Caeste, n 3 Eass glasseen. W 6 Emotes, NR 6 Seuttalea. W 3 Greenland. E 5 sewtee. n a parts uamoses. n 4 Sampaan. as = leaptoe seest g 3
? Bempeem f alla. us i f teessesutt n 4 sammanstas n i 4 87e. 63 = are Susa l 9 Sallatury. MA
- Salkebury least t 9 Eamesess. W l' e seantees, n - Seatseen sesen 0 lineetens. na 3 gam's h tes%Ltitle K Stretnam. n 1 Santh Emmpeen t weet sowoury. MA
- 1. la tasal, han easy sare. er other venistes COL.1L are =m.a2ty available to the housematet 1 one (90 WT REAR enSWBS.) - 2 Two
- 3 Three b 6 four 3 Five 6 S ta l ~ Ib 7 sevee
- 8 Eight 9 Rise or Mare 0 3ese (sees)
E Saiused .
- 2. se. , ,e.,1e = eau , u n is snie Cat. ;L esL. J2 hansensiel (90 WUt READ Assutts.) 1. cae 0. tas 2 Tum 1 tieves 3 Three 2 twelve
& Feve 3 Thtrseen 3 Five & Feartoea 4 S Ls 3 fifteen 7 Sevee 6 $1steen 4 Easkt 7 S even teen 9 Itse 8 Eighteen 9 'Ntaateen or Mete 3 Refused 4 Bow easy eMadsen 11vtas la this COL.h hennehold go te lasal putL14. private. 0 tore or paseatial eense&st (90 *FT LEAD 1 Coe As5vsss.) 2 Two 3 Three 4 rour S Five 4 S ta f levee 8 E1648 9 stee Or teste
., 3.e ed l I - r ( F-1 h.2 l i. l l l l 1 -- - - . . - - - . .
. ~ _ - - _..
I l 1 1 j
'(
g y.
- 3. tow een, wees.eee e m eurtne the 13 oummer sees youe tassay travel to es, COL. 16 ese et the fetlewtes teeeness Ave Steen. 1 Coe Day COL.7eretavs 0 07eeDe,e temptee teeen. seetween aseth, 71.s ts; eat 1 11 13 Dare Seest et 8ellatory lease!
2 twe Dave 2 14 . to Dave l 63 Fest Intee Care 34 11 30 Ders l Dave over 30 Seye ! 3 F4ve Dave 3 Setenes 6 11a Dave l 7 Sevee Dave l 4 11sta Dave 9 uses Data t I tee's teev
- I
- 6. See uset people to the housene14 _
samasse se a jet, or to sellege. COL.12,, } 0 3er 333r to et least 4 tames a woont -- 11 ~ 1 Dee 1 Thre
- 3. 0. ..e
?
3 Dee's seemsteiusee-11 ' 1pTERTTIMER4 ._ For eeen potese ideettited to Queestee 6, set Quaestese F 8
. 9. 6 10.
- 7. __
t~: eases es11esel seemiser #1 how sees ts.a. seeses es.elly travet r to ween e (48 FEAT G1.'t3T10u 704 EM2 CATCTIR.3 Ceemeer el se&& col. a Ceom.ie, cob. g st Ceemeer #3 ca .. , es 1 1 cab. a Coi..g 1 1 See 2 3 3 3 Welk/sterale I3 3 3 3 Denver Cer/ves
- l. ,
4 6 6 6 4 i Paesenter Cer/ Tea 3 3 3 3 Driver Cevyeel.3 or more people 6 6 6 6 Dessenter Ceepeal.3 pen 4e e,r more 7 7 7 7 Test - 6 4 8 8
- Refused 9 9 9 9
5. What to the eene of the stet. teve. er seemetry estesse seeme11 CCesstTER #1 (32 FIAT Qttt.tfl0N TOR IMDi Cat 9ErftR.3 (TILL 13 AM8WER 3te w . CIRetfft1 #2 C0seerfts #3 Coseerft1 d6 Casts teue ~ 5 sees Casysta==~ state c6rystews s tes. Cstyrteve a sete COL.M O COL.Q COL.h COL.R COL.3 COL.g O 0 0 0 COL.11 tot.2g COL.32 COL . g COL . g CDL i 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
.g l
2 1 1 1 0 0 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 6 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 3 3 3 6 6 6 3 3 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8
? 9 9 9 9 9 9 (tett 199 tot feat ThAs 1 TOW 08 VAA1041 Tmast Aaovtl _
r\ F-2 Fev. 2 l l
, <n, - , ,, ,-,, ,- - - - ..
-_.n - - - - . . _ . . . . . _ . . -----_ _ - - - - _.
9. Appresametely how test sees at toes toesutet 41 to travet here f ree week or setteset (RDRAT c'ItSt!C.1 TCt tag SW.*11.1 Go 80T 8243 us.tts.) ColeWTER #1 COL.3' Coteeft et 1 T maoise 0, toe. C06.,0 Uke ~34 2 4 10 m ates t 4 50 m uses 1 I mavit. De 3 11. L3 mautes 2 31 $$ m autes tone %4 1 *e. 30 mates 6 14 10 tuantes 3 36 1 tout 2 4 10 Nieutee 1 31*. 53 Ittautes 4 Ovee 1 leur. but 3 11 35 mieutee 3 54 = 1 Seur 3 21 13 haastes less snee 1 6 ovo,1 neer. 4 34 30 tanautes Beer 13 Miautes 6 16 =tonieuses but less thee 7 31 33 tuousee 3 Seeween 1 Beur 1 11 13 meutes 1 tour 13 4 36 60 tuentes 13 m autes see 4 14 30 meutes meutes 9 61 63 haastae ? 31 33 meutes 3 nesween 1 user 1 8eur 30 m eutes 4 34 60 meutes 6 notesse & tour 31 13 stausee Itsestas ese 1 1 41 65 meutes and a usur 34 Bout el meutes Mannese
? boomeen 4 Beur '4 6 Seemens 1 tour tuantes ese 2 31 Ittates amore and & tour el 8 Over 2 tours Itsamese 9 eM W ? Seoumes 1 Bear 0 g 4e Issoneee 3 ~ Dee's Seewstefuseel and 2 Beurs 8 Over 2 touro 9 womear ftserr 0
- j. R Dee's teset Sedueed 30 N
EgL.7 1 mantee orM),2 tens % ,,.1 30e4 ettsutes l COL.60 2 4 = 10 Ktantee 1 51. SS meutes t""T Minutes Or GOL.i.6 t 50 tueuses 3 1.1 13 mantes tese 4 to . 20 Itsamtes 3 36 1 seur 2 4 - 10 hieutee 3 11. SS stiautes 5 11 =23 meuta 4 over i Ent. nut 3 11 13 nientes 3 54 1 neur 4 36 30 Mtemtes tese thee 1 4 16 = la ateutu 6 over a seur. F 31 33 Iliestee Beer 13 s tutes 3 21 15 Minutes but less than 4 36 = 60 meutes $ letween 1 Wout 13 4 16 30 Nasuses 1 aser 13 montee ese 1 meutes 9 41 43 Mieutee Beer 30 Mtutes 4 leeween 1 Meer 57 34 31=33 40 meutee mac.ee i Seewou 1 Seur 13 hiausee 31 Nteutes and 9 41 45 m astee and 1 tour 1 Bour 65 meutas 30 Minutee
? Seewsee 1 tour 64 4 Betweee a sour tusentes see 2 it atteutee amore and 1 Bour 8 over J 5eure el Msentes 9 ? Seeween 1 seer 0
l 44 Ittestee X Dee't Easuttefusee : and 2 teure 8 Over 3 asure 9 0 E Dee's Easw/ Reimeet 10. It Ceneuter vous et ween er#1 werewoute eeuese, meettled et se snet eeren retureesortenew e.e.t as the suoreen stetten CoseerfER.) tatt:AT GUE m 0M FOR EACE Cetgartts #1 COL.,61 esseerTre et goy!?ft#) 3 aajg,,,23 COL. ),),, Copearrts 8& 1 is: ta }fug.Io, COL.jjt, a n. - 104 t ves- - tu 1 ver HIPmTQ C OL g
. ,3,g,,v.e 3 set sure-1ca 2 nr - tos a n- tos 1
m 3 set sum ua 3 set rue. 404 me - 10s 3 met sere t0A . F-3 h.2
_ . - . .. . . ._.._m._ .___-_. _ . . _ .__ __ . . _ . _ __ _. e A g-b k tsa, or sellese prior to steettog the etty heaelnew toes would at tae C.e es., e t to ses,tei (30 Not 82A8 AN814RS.) (ttstAt 0;;&ST10u fot EACE CoseelTER.)
#1 CEL._M .
Comerfts et 1 7 M1meses or COL. J6 been . M . 30 Mteutes 1 64 87 1 3 m eutes 1 64 M . 50u ee t 4 10 usemees 2 31 35 m eutet De Less COL. una t 3 11 13 r** antes 3 Se = 1 tour 2 4 10 mousee 2 M . SS atlasses 4 14 = to *, cases 4 Oves & Reus. 3 11 13 Manusee 4 3 14 1 tour 3 11 e 13 6 W ?es
- but less shee 4 14 20 masses Over 1 tour.
1 tome 15 not toes shee 4 3e = 30 assenaan ' hamnaa.e 3 21 23 Nieuses 1 asme 13
- 7 31 = 33 biseases 3 Seemene i toes 6 24 30 Meuses mentes 8 34 64 Ittamaas 7 31 35 messee 3 9 41 43 Mimates 13 E*.mntee 4 34 60 utsesse temmes L asse and 1 Sane 9 41 65 mentes LS Innassee 30 Intensee . and 4 neue 4 Seemees & Beer 30 Itamssee 34 titanees .4 Seemees & lieue and 1 asur 34 stanses as estenees and & seue
? Seemmes & Rome 43 assansee 44 Ildamstas 7 betuses & usue and I temas 4 Maeuses 8 Ovee 2 toure and 2 asure 9 4 over 2 ammee 0 9 3 tem's Resu/ 0 Refused I Dee's Beau /
Refused
.= v 2 qps,, 30 ag; 31 Cae= #6
'ggL,31 V 17 Ittasses ce i
' 1"T4 30 Manstes gag,,33 Laos 1 31 33 Mnemaea
/17 Maaesee 2 4 10 Ilsmises or Lees 1 7 4 $0 Mieuses 3 11. L1 atlantes 3 34 1 Some 2 4 = 10 m assee 2 51 . SS nieuses 4 3 34 . L same 6 to 20 atteesee ' over 1 Bour. 3 L1 = 13 Meusee a 5 11 13 Maasses boa toes thes 4 14 30 minutes over 1 meur.
4 16 30 tenausee 1 tour 13 3 11 35 useusee bue less thes I geseusse & gene 13
? 31 33 hsmsses S Seeneen & taug 6 24 30 Manuses mientes m 4 34 40 taisseen 7 11 35 Mieusee '
9 41 65 Inteuses 13 stteusee 4 36 60 htausee 3 seouses 1 seue and & Beut 9 41 63 m eutes 13 Itteusee 30 etteusee med 1 gene 4 teewees & Wome ' 30 Inteusee 31 IItaseee l 6 Seewees & user and & Sase 31 Inteuses 43 Itassees and & neug 7 Seeuses & beur 4S Mieutee 64 m ousee 7 Seemees 1 Near , and 2 Baure 64 Mieutee , 8 Over 2 Seure end 3 naure l 9 8 8 Over 2 asure
- 0 9 3 Don's seau/ 0
(' 8efoese I See's Esse / ledesee fLvrEnvitutet trty To otrtsftop 11,1 -- 108. ' Does the female have eneshoe ventele COL. 54 avetlable for eveeuesteet 17ee [ l 2 Se 3 tem's Resurge(seed e I i
1 L F-4 . 2 l l
. . . ~ . - ~. - - - - ... -. - - . - --.. - ...-. - . . . ,
I'
/
(- Lt. tow leos mmtreestettoso set, h8 Spenaos seannese 844.) 14 la tehe petetthe feestethe to eveenstas toettet ease eletstas seente ene hemee.1**e GO het 6444 I (WL.1 COL R 1 Lene them is =taneee 4 L5 m le 4 mmeee 47 wee to 3 tomre 13 wtantee 3 31 e el Mrasse t 3 mante 14 *Lamese to 3 temee a se ?4amese to & tot 30 Msamese 3 1 tout to & bame LS Plantee 3 3 tomes 41 MLameos to 3 tente as Mameos 6 & tone 14 hammeen se & tout 4 30 setentee 1 h ee 64 wtamese to a tante
? 1 tome 31 8tammtes to & haut $ 6 homes to 6 esmee L3 % tasses 6 6 toute it wtamase to 6 toute 4 ' Ieltsee Ithmese 64 fitasses to I heute 30 Miamese t 4 toute J1 M&amese to 6 tente 9 8 temas to a tonee L3 maamtes 65 ottamese 0 I temeo 16 titannee to 4 teste as wtamese a 6 heute et M6mmeee to i names 3 3 heute at Maanese to a toute e i heure to S taure il Msamtee el stammees 9 5 toute 16 m6amese to 5 toute 30 *tsameos T 3 tones 44 Itamase to 3 toute 2 $ homes J1 Miamese to $ toute el Piamese t I hamee no M&amese to 4 toute '
k *e mese i fnamh yen very amat. JuBDE a.Mu mi O e g l l L F-5 BBY 2
. _ _ , _ . , _ _ . - ~ . . - - ------'- '"^ ^^ ^ ^ ' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ' ' ' ^ ^
7- ; s- ; I i b i
/ \
t
,Vl <
t t feele 4 . t oebehge latePeless lateFenese g h Pet taeveens Per te m ite Pesele t t ee f1?.tititAe [ i Pertenevat eM ik 136 ! 44129.50 40.38 Petteemute all 166 th 46338.90 40.36 hous es 4 6e Groestead t 934.00 .70
- it !!39.00 t.60 '
fetet tetetetowe lasheesee 630. 638 l h 6ye the 40 66 64f4.00 3.30 perth hooptee 34 1371.00 1.60 treetween 64 8 LOL tt 1968.00 .60 seet stoestee 13 ttft.00 Etetette 90 heesee 66 6?tt.00 1.50 i treetwees Il Wtte 1.50 6ft le 10 1003.00 .40 teater fit 96 H l seestostee $369.50 6.30 heetteles 6 f38.30 .50
$ttesham 3 BM.00 .60 "
% %44.50 1.50 seeth heestem 3 337.30 .30 teeter ??% 76 H teeetesten $669.30 6.30 4 f38.50 .50
{
/q $4tathee 8esth Heeptoe 4 16M .50 1.10 ,
1 327.10 .30 ' (/ Seebeoet 696 60 60 63H.00 6.60 useesee til lit hametes fette LOS L1311.00 8.10 16 1668.00 4.40 best hevoury J63 17 11 1664.00 1.10 eerttees 366 66 66 6??4.00 3.40
$sitence, 668 106 29 3034.50 1.30 howevf tport il 802) 00 9.40 8ellsbury 665 150 howeverport tt 3034.50 2.50 hevour y il 803).00 1.00 66 oggf.00 3.30 asse6ery 388 16 3 16 1 18116.00 nn.00 7074LA 1300 1300 137H5.00 100.00 l
l l l' I i r i s F-6 Rev. 2 l 1
__ m. __ . - ... _ _ _ . _ _ , _ l l l l
.;
fx i ( ' l l Table J e telethene tasuntee in be homenes writteel how tunhet Of leesie &amele teleoewene Intervieve 1]ae h h Pet richenna fmitt new m-emire (Arte Cese 603) 301 290 630 134 tort omsve n 6)) 164 tettoesuc h how Coet te Creenland
$6 40 *M to tre. herth temptem til ill 664 101 trentumme tast Einssten Etapeten sowton ;
6 79 10 Stenem 170 164 !?2 le taste r tenennesen howfleide
$ttethes lavth hampton IPO ?$ tsetot /m Rono test on se e.i-m
( sewt. .ame .a
!!4 179 474 60 neebeset 926 lit Monaten
- Mempton Falle
*ueeschu se t t e
( Atos Cous 4171 79 ?! 161 It heet Kewberv
}&6 64' me ttlass 283 254 663 104 Sellabwet
- Neweveveert 66l ISO Selletwry neutvryport bewbwty
),d. 161 1 g, Ame aberT 4W 13 % 1140 1300 3300 t
I b F-7 Rev. 2 l
- . .l 1
O ! l l l i 1 I l l l 1
'f APPDOIX G ,
Tabulations of hiephone Survey Data , l l P W
,._..~_m.. --,_,-.. - . .- . _ . . - ..........,_,..-..,---_._.._m.._-.._.._...._m, _ , . . - . --.-- - ..... ,. . ......-
t APPRDIX G 'rpstrATIOGS OP '1wrmHME SLRVEY DhTA gx i (- PERSONS PER HOUSEHDLO VS nEEKEND BEACHGOERS PER HOUSEHOLO , PTRSONS PER huMBER OF DAYS PER SUMMER HOUSE HOLD 1-5 0 6-10 11-15 16+ TOTAL 1 TOTAlt 90 44 7 16 24 181 l
-PERCENT 49.7 24.3 3.9 8.8 13.3 100.0 2 TOTAL
- 192 113 36 43 56 440 i PERCENT: 43.6 25.7 8.2 9.8 12.7 100.0 '
3 TOTAL 75 83 21 15 38 I 232 PERCENT: 32.3 35.9 9.1 6.5 16.4 100.0 1 4 TOTAL: 81 87 28 19 27 242 PERCENT: 33.5 36.0 11.6 7.9 11.2 100.0 1 ! 5 TOTAL 36 37 7 6 18 104 ' PERCENTt 34 6 35 6 6.7 5.8 17.3 100 0 6 TOTAL: 12 14 3 3 7 39 PERCENT: 34.8 35.9 7.7 7.7 17.9 100 0 7 TOTAL: 2 0 1 1 0 4 PERCCNT:- 50.0 00 25 0 25.0 0.0 100.0 8 TOTAlt 0 0 1 0 3 4 PERCENT 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 75.0 100.0 t i 9 TOTAL: 2 1 0 0 1 4 PERCEhT 50.0 25 0 0.0 0.0 25.0 100.0 10 TOTAtt 8 4 0 0 1 13 PERCENT: 61 5 30 8 00 00 7.7 100 0 G-1 Rev. 2 _ . . _ _ ___ ~ _ . _ _ _ - . ~ _ _ _ _ . _ __ _ , _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
I PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLO VS COMMUTERS PER HOUSEHOLO O\ ' 1 PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLO NUMBER O OF COMMUTERS PER HOUSEHOLO
......... 1 2 3 4 TOTAL I TOTAlt 83 103 0 0 PERCENT 44.6 55.4 00 0.0 0.0 100 0 2 TOTALS 167 113 168 0 o PERCENT: 37 3 25 2 37.5 0.0 o,0 100 0 i 3 TOTAL 30 81 97 37 0 PERCENT: 12.2 33.1 245 39.6 15 1 0.0 100.0 4
TOTAtt 23 95 88 23 18 t PERCENT: 93 38 5 35 6 247 93 7.3 100.0 5 TOTAL: 8 45 36 13 4 PERCENT: 75 42 5 34.0 106 12.3 3.8 100 0 6 TOTAL 2 6 20 6
;
5 39 PERCENT: 51 15.4 51.3 t 15.4 12.8 100 0 l I 7 TOTAL: 0 1 2 0 PERCENT 1 4 0.0 25 0 50 0 0.0 25.0 100.0 8 TOTAlt 0 0 1 2 1 PERCENT 4 00 0.0 25 0 50.0 25.0 100.0 9 TOTAL 1 0 1 2 0 4 PERCENT 25.0 00 25 0 50 0 00 100 0 10 TOTAL 5 2 1 1 4 PERCENT 13 38.5 15.4 77 77 30.B 100 0 l l Rev. 2 O
@2
i i t f') o Cor*UTEA TRAVEL TIMES dETWEEN wMK t$Cn00LI AND HOME l TIME kat.GE , (IN MINUTES) >
............ 6'U MB E R CF COMPUTERS
................... PERCENT OF COMuuTERS 1 -
6 255 10 273 15.4 11 - 15 270 16.4 16 - 20 174 16 3 21 - 25 96 10.5 26 - 30 154 58 31 - 35 9.3 42 36 - 40 57 2.5 41 - 45 3.4 Se 46 - 50 5.2 31 51 - 55 1.9 9 56 - 60 0.5 70 61 - 75 32 5.4 76 - 90 1.9 28 91 - 105 1.7 8 106 - 120 4 0.5 121+ 8 0.2 VARIES 7 0.5 UNKNOWN 0.4 37 2.2 l l t b\ b G-3 Rev. 2 i
i i COMPUTE R TRAVEL TIMES BETWEEN WORK (SCHOOL) AND HOME FOR HOUSEHOL 9- I
. i TIME RANGE IIN MINUTES) NUMBER OF COMMUTERS
- - - - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - - - PERCENT OF COMMUTERS i
1 - 5 52 6 - 10 15.6 65 19.5 11 - 15 51 15 3 16 - 20 30 9,o i 21 - 25 25 26 - 30 75 37 ig,t 31 - 35 12 3,3 36 - 40 9 41 - 45 27 15 4.5 46 - 50 4 51 - 55 1.2 1 o,3 56 - 60 17 5,1 61 - 75 3 o,9 76 - 90 5 ' 1,5 91 - 105 0 i o,c 106 - 120 1 o,3 121+ 1 VARIES 0.3 0 o,o UNKNOWN 5 15 , G-4 O Rey, 2
;
?
' O CMMUTER, TRAVEL TIMES BEThEEN WORD, (SCHOOL) AND HOME FOR HOUSEHOLDS WITH 2 C AR
. \,v) '
TIME RANGE (!h MINU7ES) AUMBER OF COMPUTERS
.................... PERCENT CF COMMUTERS ,
h I 1 5 141 t 16 6 6 - 10 132 11 - 15 15.t - 135 15.9 16 - 20 93 21 - 25 11.0 39 46 26 - 30 70 31 - 35 83 21 25 36 - 40 27 , 41 - 45 32 53 6.3 46 - 50 14 51 - 55 1.7 7 08 56 - 60 48 61 - 75 57 15 1.8 ' 76 - 90 16 91 - 105 19 6 07 106 - 120 1 01 121+ 3 0.4 VARIES 3 0.4 UNKNOWN 24 2.8 V l i 1 l l l l I 1 l l 1. Oa G-5 Fev. 2 l-
' COMMUTER TRAVEL T!wES BETWFEN WORA (SCHOOL) AND N0ME FOR HOUSEHOL OS d lTH ) ;AR(S)
TIME RANGt (IN MINU1Est 9: : AUMBER CF COM*UTERS PERCENT OF COMMUTERS i 1 - s 39 13,7 o - 10 47 16.5 11 - 15 47 16.5 - 16 - 20 30 10.5
- 21 -
25 18 63 26 - 30 29 10 2 ' 31 - 35 7 25 l 36 - 40 11 3,9 , 41 - 45 13 46 46 - 50 3 g,1 51 - 55 1 o,4 56 - 60 16 5.6 61 - 75 9 3.2 i 76 - 90 4 1,4 1 91 - 105 2 o,7 106 - 120 2 0,7 121+ 3 1,1 VARIES 2 07 i UNKNCWN 2 0.7 l l O 1 l l 1
':t L
G-6 nev, 2 O l
/,_h COMMUTER TRAVEL TIMES BETWEEN WCRK (SCHOOL) AND HOME FOR HOUSEHOLOS WITH ! 'v' TIME RANGE
( t h tilNU TE 51 huMBER CF COMkUTERS
............ PERCENT OF COMMUTERS 1 - 5 21 6 -
10 11.3 25 13.4 11 - 15 37 16 19.9 20 21 11.3 21 - 25 14 ' 75 26 - 30 17 9.1 31 - 35 2 1.1 36 - 40 10 5.4 41 - 45 5 2.7 46 - 50 8 43 i 51 - 55 0 0.0 + 56 - 60 9 4.8 61 - 75 5 2.7 76 - 90 3 1.6 91 - 105 0 0.0 106 - 12 0 0 00 121+ 1 0.5 VARIES 2 1.1 ' UNKNOWN 6 32
)
1 G-7 ReV. 2
i MINIMUM AND MAxlMUM CCMMUTER TRAVEL YtMES FOR HOUSEMOLOS WITH 1 COMMUTER (S)
----MINIMUM TIME RANGE---
----Max! MUM TI ME R ANGE- -
g: TIME RANGE NUMBER CF PERCENT OF NUMBER OF PERCENT OF ( t h MINUTES) CCMMUTERS COMMUTERS C OMMUTE P.S COMMUTERS 1 - 5 68 15 2 68 15 2 6 - 10 57 12.8 57 12 8 11 - 15 53 11.9 53 11.9 16 - 20 55 12 3 55 12.3 . 21 - 25 34 7.6 34 76 26 - 30 43 96 43 9.6 31 - 35 9 2.0 9 20 ; 36 - 40 19 4.3 19 43 4
*1 -
45 27 61 27 6.1 46 - 50 6 1.3 6 13 51 - 55 4 0.9 4 0.9 56 - 60 34 7.6 34 7.6 61 - 75 10 2.2 10 22 76 - 90 12 2.7 12 2.7 91 - 105 1 0.2 1 02 ' 106 - 12 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 121+ 2 0.4 2 0.4 VARIES 2 0.4 2 04 UNKNOWN 10 2.2 10 2.2 i G-8 Rev. 2 i l l
-. _ _ ~ _ _ _ - . . _ _ _ _ _ _
FIN!PUM AND #AXIMUM CCMPUTER TRAVEL TIMES Foo HOUSEHOLOS WITH 2 COMMUTER ( S) j i f ----ethlNUM TIME RANGE--- ----MAXIMUM TIME RANGE--- ' TIME RANGE hUMBER OF PERCENT OF NUMBER OF PERCENT OF (IN PINUTES) COMMUTERS CCMPUTERS COMMUTERS COMMUTERS , 1 - 5 171 20.7 96 11.6 [ 6 - 13 105 19.9 116 14.0 11 - 15 146 17.6 127 15 3 .
'6 -
20 85 10.3 84 10 1 1 25 39 47 48 5.8
.o -
30 66 f.0 B3 10 0 31 - 35 10 7. 2 26 31 36 - 40 23 2.8 30 3.6 41 - 45 39 4.7 59 71 46 - 50 10 1.2 17 2.1 ' 51 - 55 3 0.4 2 0.2 56 - 60 31 3.7 60 72 , 61 - 75 10 1.2 25 3.0 76 - 90 3 0.4 15 18 91 - 105 3 0.4 6 0.7 106 - 120 0 00 1 0.1 121+ 0 0.0 3 0.4 VARICS 2 02 4 0.5 UNKNOWN 14 1.7 26 3.1
't ? 'd G-9 Rev. 2
MINIMUM AND " AK1 MUM CO* MUTE R TRAVEL TIMES 50R HOUSEHOLDS ti!TH 3 COMMUTER ($1
----Mih! MUM TIME RANGE--- ' ----MAKIMUM TIME c.ANGE-TIME RANGE hUMBER OF PhRCENT 9F NU MB ER OF PERCENT OF f!N MINUTES) COM4UTERS COMPUTERS COMMUTERS COMMUTERS 1 - 5 53 21.1 15 6.0
% - 10 49 19 5 - 27 10.8
.1 - 15 51 20.3 20 80 16 -
20 27 10.0 35 13.9 21 - 25 10 4.0 23 92
~26 - 30 13 5.2 19 T.6 31 -
35 8 32 16 6.4 , 36 -
'O 9, 3.2 11 4.4 41 -
45 6 2.4 16 64 , 46 - 50 S 3.2 14 5.6 l 51 - 55 0 0.0 1 04 l 56 - 60 7 2.8 15 6.0 ' 61 - 75 2 08 10 4.0 T6 - 90 1 0.4 3 12 ; 91 - 105 1 0.4 3 1.2 106 - 12 0 1 0.4 4 16 121+ 1 0.4 5 20 VARIES 1 04 3 12
- UNKNOWN 4 1.6 11 4.4 0
G-10 Rev. 2
I MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM COMMUTER TRAVEL TIMES FOR HOUSEHOLOS WITH 4 COMMUTER ($1 s ----MINIMUM TIME RANGE--- ---- M Ax l MUM T I ME R A NGE---
)T I M E - R A NG E NUMBER O' PERCENT OF NU MB ER OF PERCENT CF (IN MINUTES) COMMUTERS COMFUTERS COMMUTERS COMMUTERS 1 -
5 33 25 0 11 s.3 10 40 30.3 10 76
.1 - 15 31 23.5 33 25.0 16 -
20 3 2.3 17 12.9 21 - 25 10 7.6 5 38 26 - 30 8 e 6.1 17 12.9 31 - 35 2 1.5 8 6.1 36 - 40 0 0.0 3 23 41 - 45 1 0.8 5 34 46 - 50 0 0.0 0 00 51 - 55 0 0.0 0 00 56 - 60 1 0.8 9 61 61 - 75 0 0.0 0 00 - 76 - 90 1 0.8 6 4.5 ' 91 - 105 0 0.0 0 0.0 106 - 120 1 0.8 4 30 121+ 1 0.8 4 3.0 , VARl!S 0 0.0 0 0.0 UNKNOWN O 0.0 1 08 b
- ' \~,) -
i G-11 Itev. 2
COMPUTER PREPARATION TIME 5 FOR LEAv!NG CORK (SCHOOL) TIME RANGE j (IN MINUTES) NUMSER OF COMPUTER $ PERCENT OF COMMUTE i - 1 5 770 57.9 6 - 10 135 l 10 1 1
- 11 -
15 79 5.9 l ! 16 - 20 26 ' 21 - 25 20 ' 8 06 26 30 72 5.4 l 31 - 35 19 14 ; 36 - 40 1 01 ! 41 - 45 4 03 : L 46 - 50 3 02 j 51 - 55 0 0.0 56 - 60 24 1.8 ' L 61 - 75 8 06 76 - 90 3 0.2 91 - 105 2 02 106 - 120 9 07 ; 121+ 5 0.4 VARIES 1 0.1 UNKNOWN 162 12 2 l t h
'I l.
V L F t t t 1 G-12 Rev. 2
,e. .- m, , , . , . . ~ . . ~ . , .-,.,,_..-r,r.- _ . - , - , , , , . . . .
I HOME PACKING TIMES NEEDED TO PRE P AR E FOR DEP ARTURE j U. TIME RANGE l i (IN MINU7ES) huMBER CF HOUSEHOLOS PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS !
'l -
15 232 21.7 . 16 - 30 333 25.6 . 1 l 31 - 45 92 71 46' - 60 153 11 8 { 61 - 75 120 9.2 76 - 90 25 19 91 - 105 5 0.4 ; 106 - 120 45 3.5 i 121 - 135 46 3.5 ; 1.0 ! 136 - 150 13 151 - 165 4 03 166 - 180 15 12 ; 181 - 195 8 0.6 196 - 210 0 00 211 - 225 0 0.0 226 - 240 5 0.4 241 - 255- 1 01 256 - 270 1 0.1 271 - 285 0 00 286 - 300 2 02 301 - 315 1 0.1
- (~% 0.0
(' 316 - 330 331 - 345 0 0 00 346 - 360 8 06 UNKNOWN 140 10.8 i 4 O G-13 Rev. 2
PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLO VS C ARS PER HOUSEHOLO PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLO AUMBER OF CARS PER HOUSEHOLO O 1 2 3 4 TOTAL Ol 1
......... ... ... ... ... ... ..... l 1 TOTAL: 25 147 13 0 1 186 ]
PERCENT: 13.4 79.0 7.0 0.0 0.5 100.0 l I 2 TOTAL: 9 156 246 29 10 450 PERCENT: 2.0 34.7 54.7 6.4 2.2 100.0 3 TOTAL: 1 48 132 45 17 243 PERCENT: 04 19.9 54.3 18.5 70 100 0
]
1 i 4 TOTAL: 1 46 128 41 31 247 i PERCENT: 0.4 18.6 51.8 16 6 12 6 100 0 l 5 TOTAL: 0 15 54 26 11 106 PERCENT: 00 14 2 50 9 24.5 10.4 100 0 1
. )
6 TOTAL: - 0 7 13 11 8 3 I PERCENT - 0.0 17.9 33.3 29.2 20.5 100 ] d 7 TOTAL: 0 1 1 1 1 4 l PERCENT: 00 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 100.0 , s 1 8 TOTAL: 0 0 0 2 2 4 i PERCENT: 00 00 0.0 50 0 50 0 100 0 ' l 9 TOTAL: 0 1 2 0 1 ,4 PERCENT: 0.0 25.0 50.0 0.0 25.0 100.0 l 10 TOTAL: 0 5 2 1 4 12 PERCENT: 0.0 41.7 16.T 8.3 33 3 100.0 I
~
G G-14 Rev. 2
I I i g g. PER$0NS PER HOUSEHOLD VS SCHOOL CHILDREN PER HOUSEHOLD { LJ . PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD NUM6ER CF SCHOOL CHILDREN PER HOUSEHOLO 0 1 2 3 4 5
....... 6 TOTAL 1 TOTAL: 186 0 0 0 0 0 0 PERCLNTt 100 0 146 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 00 100.0 ,
2 TOTALt 428 17 2 0 0 1 0 448 PERCENT: 95 5 3.8 04 0.0 00 0.2 00 100.0 3 TOTAL: 130 105 10 0 0 0 0 ! PERCENT: 245 53 1 42.9 41 0.0 00 0.0 00 100.0 4 TOTAL 60 63 123 1 0 0 0 24T
- PERCENT: 24.3 25 5 49.8 04 0. 0 00 0.0 100.0 5 TOTAL: 13 21 34 38 0 0 0 106 PERCENTt 12.3 19.9 32 1 35.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100 0 i
p 6 TOTAL: 0 3 6 9 13 0 0 39 Q PERCENT 20 5 7.7 15.4 23.1 33.3 0.0 0.0 100.0 7 TOTAL 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 4 PERCENT: 00 0.0 50050.0 00 0.0 00 100.0 8 TOTAL 0 1 2 0 0 '. 0 4 PERCENT
- 25.0 0 0 50.0 00 0.0 25.0 0.0 100 0 9
TOTALt 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 PERCENT: 25.0 00 00 0.0-25.0 0.0 50.0 100 0 i
10 TOTAL: 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 13 PERCENis 69 2 7.7 00 7.7 7.7 0.0 7.7 l 100.0 (% G-15 h.2
-, . . _ .._..-,,,m.-- -- - . . - , - . . , . . , - _
6 F 1 l 1 i i l i l- - b t I i i 4 h h 7 i t APPDOIX H 1980 census Data -
?
i
+
P h t
)
P
..,-_,,..w,,--,.-,,,,,-w.e,_m
--,,_ mw _ ,_.,---n.n,pw,,,
.~
_; O O ~ O Mumber of Households with School Indicated Number of Enrollment- Vehicles Available Nurse ry Other 0 1 2 23 NH Hockingham Cty. 2603 41758 3657 24439 26858' 19997 Brentwood E. Kingston Exeter 306 2183 360. 2002 1327 500 Greenland Hampton 200 1960 305 1760 1593 428
-Hampton Falls ,
Kensington Kingston 87 912 53 448 563 351 4 New Castle Newfields Newtown 97 672 71 281 415 240 i North Hampton 57 793 24 428 494 261 Portsmouth (city) 444 4993 1261 4561- 2860 742 Rye 59 852 25 612 817 268 Seabrook 18 944 86 1106 834 368 i South Hampton Stratham 39 626 13 223 398 171 i MA ! Amesbury 303 2800 663 2248 1627 528 Merrimac 65 1069 86 642 537 260 Newbury 58 1000 54 444 752 338 Newburyport 410 3151 575 2642 1796 579 Salisbury 81 1394 158 880 754 265 West Newbury 39 761 32 221 430 181 H-1 Rev. 2
q
% Worked Avg.
Outside t Occupancy Nean Area of 1 in % Using Public Driving Journey to Travel Residence Carpools Transportation Alone Work Time NII Rockingham Cty. 43.9 23.8 1.4 66.6 1.17 22.7 Brentwood E. Kingston Exeter 49.9 22.0 1.7 61.7 1.18 20.2 Greenland llampton 67.6 24.2 2.3 65.8 1.18 22.5 Ilampton Falls
~
Kensington Kingston 75.3 22.8 0.7 70.0 1.16 24.5 New Castle Newfields Newtown 91.7 29.7 0.6 63.2 1.24 26.0 North flampton 83.5 10.5 1.4 77.3 1.07 23.9 Portsmouth (city) 38.8 25.0 2.8 57.1 1.20 14.5 Rye 80.9 12.6 1.4 77.2 1.08 21.0 Seabrook 55.3 23.1 1.1 70.0 1.16 21.3 South Ilampton Stratham 77.9 23.5 1.3 67.8 1.17 19.4 MA Amesbu ry 61.7 26.1 1.0 63.7 1.21 20.6-Merrimac 77.6 27.6 1.4 62.3 1.22 22.5 Newbury 83.4 19.0 4.0 72.2 1.13 25.6 Newburyport 51.5 24.3 2.2 58.6 1.21 22.4 Salisbury 78.6 20.9 1.0 67.4 1.16 20.7 West Newbury 87.8 21.5 0.8 71.3 1.16 26.8 H-2 Rev. 2 O O O
o' r O- O v Year l'With t With One or More 1 of Families Single Round 5 or ' Occupied Housing Vehicles With Children Unit Housing More Available Under 6 Years Structure Units _ Units Units Nil 94.5 23.6 51162 Rockingham Cty. 69375 14.8 65951 543 482 Brentwood 582 315 Kingston 370 363 E. 4189 91.4 21.1 3092 Exeter 4406 13.7 640 733 705 Greenland- 18.1- 2711 4437 24.4 4086 92.5 Ilampton 462 429 Ilampton Falls 483 407 Kensington 450 434 1415 96.3 20.0 1320 Kingston 1518 7.2 335 310 New Castle 352 235 280 274 Newfields 92.9 28.6 897 Newtown 1073 14.2 1007 4,9 1207 98.0 17.6 1123 North flampton 1255 9424 86.6 28.2 6610 Portsmouth (city) 9877 23.5 1570 1812 8.2 1722 98.5 17.3 Rye 17.1 1601 Seabrook 2523 30.1 2394~ 96.4 216 205 South Hampton 221 805 98.4 20.4 735 , Stratham 844 1.1 MA 25.2 2678 Amesbury 5429 29.0 5066 86.9 1525 94.4 26.7 1210 Merrimac 1572 7.3 1588 96.6 15.5 1449 Newbury 1666 5.2 5892 85.1 19.9 3524 Newburyport 6259 17.7 2057 92.3 21.9 1619 Salisbury 2156 7.1 832 0.6 864 96.3 20.3 West Newbury 882 3 Rev. 2
, ,~ , , ._ ._ .._ _ . . ~ . - . . _ - - . ......... ,. _ -- .._. __ _ .. _ _ .~...._-.. . _ . _ _. _ . __.. . _
4
?
t Household Size Persons in 9 i Grouc Quarters NH 2.84 2779 Brentwood 3,14 298 E. Kingsten 3.13 -
- Exeter 2.59 208 Greenland 3.02 -
Hampten 2.54 109 Hampton Falls 2.97 - Kensington 3.05 - Kingston 2.90 2 New Castle Newfields Newtcwn 3.05 - North Hampton 2.83 14 Portsmouth (city) 2.63 1431 l Rye 2.61 12 ) Seabrook 2.47 3 l South Hampton Stratham 3.10 - 11 , MA O Amesbury 2.70 380 Merrimac 2.92 1 Newbury 2.85 2 Newburyport 2.63 425 Salisbury 2.82 58 West Newbury 3.31 1 I l l l H-4 m.2
i i O : 1 i t
;
t i i APPDDIX I ; Traffic Management And Control
;
O EZ3 . Traffic Control Post descriptions and diagrams are contained in NHRERP Traffic I Managenent Manual and SPMC Appendix J. I r f f I O
;
i i l 1
% j 1
)
l l l l i l l l 1
)
i APPENDIX J Description of Evacuation Routes e b t 9 l 1 i
l APPDOIX Jr DESCRIPTIOi CF EVACLATION ROLTPES U l We follcwing are descriptions of evacuation routes for each comunity in j the Dmrgency Planning Zone (EPZ). 'Ibwns are assigned to Emergency Response l Planning Areas (ERPA) as defined in Table 10-1. l l 'Ihe route descriptions reflect evacuation paths specified in the IDYNLV l r:odel, and, as such, are not limited to the routes to the reception aantars l providad in the public infezation starials. 'Ihe IDYNLV nodel routings are l generally nore detallad since they account for the paths taken by those evacuees l who do not go to the reception centers but who utilize ack11tional . routes l penitted by the traffic anagment plan. ERPA A Seabrook - Host is Salm Seabrook Beach - Take the nost convenient path to Route 286. Proceed west on Route 286. Cross Route 1 and cantinue west anto Forest Street, following the di.rections to I-95 South and enter I-95 southbound. At the junction of I-95 and I-495 bear right and entar I-495, continue on I-495 and exit either at Route 97 westbouryd, or Route l 213 westbound. If Route 97 is chosen, proceed west to Sale. If Route 213 is chosen, proceed wat to Route l 28, then north to Route 97 and pW. east to Salm. l If Route 286 is congestad at its intersection with l Route IA, cantinue south along Route d into Salisbury l Beach, then west alorg Beach Road (also Route 1A). l Cantinue west through Salisbury Square onto Route 110, l toward I-495. Enter I-495 southbound and travel to l Sal m as described abcve. Inland - Take the nost convenient path to Route 107, New , haland Road. Proceed west on Route 107 to I-95. J-1 Rev. 2
1 l Enter I-95 southbound and proceed as ab:ve. Else, j j travel scuth on Route 1 to Route 286, then right turn ) l onto Route 286, waticund. Then travel to Salen via ! 1 l I-95 southbxnd as described abcne, i i Hamoton Beach -- Host is Manchester Proceed north along Route IA, Ocean Blvd. 'Ihe preferred route is to tum left onto Highland Avenue to Route 51 and continue traveling westbound on Route 51 until it becomes Route 101. Continue west on Route 101 to Manchester. (If Highland Avenue is congestad, continue north on Route 1A and turn left onto Church Street to travel toward Route 51,) Alternate paths include:
- 1. Continue north on Route 1A past Churuh Street and turn left (west) on Route 101C; travel west to northbound. Take I-95 north to Spaulding Turnpike I-95g northbxnd. Leave Spaulding Turnpike and continue west on U.S. 4 to I-93. Travel southbound on I-93 to l I-293, than take Route 28 to Manchester.
- 2. Continue north on Route 1A to Route 1010. Turn left onto Route 101D and travel west to Route 151. Turn right (north) onto Route 151 and travel to the intersection with Route 101. Turn right (east) onto Route 101 and travel to I-95 north. Take I-95 north and proceed to the Spaulding Turnpike and to U.S.
Route 4, as above.
- 3. Continue north along Route 1A and turn left (west) onto South Road or Washington Road. Take either road to U.S. Route 1. Prtzn South Road, turn right (north) onto Route 1, then turn left onto Breakfast Hill Road
]
;
J-2 Rev. 2 I 1 l l
I i to Route 151. num right (north) onto Route 151 ard
/~ -
juwas-1 as above for Alternate Route Ib, 2. Frun !
t Washington Road, take lang R6ad to Route 1, turn right (north) onto Route 1, then - bear left onto Route 1 )
Bypass- to Portsmouth Circle. Travel to Spauldlag Turnpike (Route 4) and proceed as above to Manchester. EZ3 Pemanent residents who have children in school at the time of the accident, should take Alternate Paths 1, 2 or 3 and travel to Ibver via the Spaulding Turnpike, rather than to Manchester. Hamoton Falls -- H3st is Dover Access to Route 84 - Take the most convenient path to Route 84, South ' Kensington Road. Turn west onto Route 84 and [u.wes-1 to
,O Iamprey Road and its intersection with Route 150. FrwM I
l north on Route 150 to Route 108 northbound and travel into l Dceter. Continue north on Route 108 through Exeter onto High Street and then turn left onto Portsnouth Avenue (Route 108). Continue north on Route 108 to Dover. Access to Route 88 - Take the most convenient path to Route 88, Hanpton Falls l Road. Turn west onto Route 88 and travel to the junction with Route 101C. Turn left (westbound) onto Route 101C (High Street) and travel to Route 108. Turn right (north) onto Portsmouth Avenue (Route 108). Continue north on 1. . Route 108 to Dover.
' O.
1 O J-3 Rev. 2
1 i i l IRPA B 1 Amesbury -- Host is tbrth Andover Northern Amesbury - Take the nest convenient path to South Haupton Road (Route l 107A). Take Route 107A north to the intersection of Route 107A and Route 108. Proceed south on Route 108 into l Haverhill to the intersection with Route 110. Turn left onto Route 110 eastbound and travel to interchange with I-495. Enter I-495 southbound in Haverhill and s.vceed to l Route 114 east into North Andover. East of Market Street - Take the nest convenient path to Elm Street. Move south on Elm Street to the intersection with Route 110. Turn . right an Route 110 to the southbound I-495 rang and travel south an I-495 to Route 114 east into North Andover. South of Elm Take thu nest convenient path to Macy Street Street -
.(Route 110). 1.)Take' Route 110 eastbound to the southbound I-495 l ramp. Enter I-495 southbound and travel to Route 114 east
, l to Nort.h Andover. 2.)Take Route 110 westbound to
- l. Hillside Avenue, then p.vcesi as described below.
-West of Main Street -
Take the nest convenient path to Hillside Avenue. Take Hillside Avenue south, across Route 110 to the I-495 l interchange. Enter I-495 southbound and travel to Route l 114 east to North Andover. West of Hillside Avenue - Take the nest convenient path south to Haverhill Road (Route 110). Turn right (west) on Route 110 and continue into Merrimac. Cantinue west on Route 110 or turn left onto Broad Street to the I-495 interchange in Ne4=c. J-4 Rev. 2 l l l l l _ _ _ . . , - . , - . . - . - - - , - -1
Ehter I-495 southbound and continue to Route 114 south to
,o Andover. If continuing west on Route 110, travel to the k,_) I-495 southbound ramp in Haverhill. Enter I-495 south and g vceed to Route 114 east to North Andover.
l Salisbury -- Host is Bever1v l . l Salisbury Beach - P m osi south along Route 1A and turn west onto Beach Road (Route 1A). Continue west on Route 1A to the intersection with U.S. Route 1. Both lanes on Route 1A will move west, across Route 1 and gvceim-i to Route 110. Traffic l continues west on Route 110 to either the I-95 interchange l or to the I-495 interchange to the west. Those who enter l I-95 southbound, using either of two entry ranps, proceed l south to Route 62, then east to Beverly. 'Ihose who l travel on I-495 southbound, proceed to I-93. Take I-93 l southbound to Route 128, then Route 128 eastbound to Route l 62 and take Route 62 to Beverly. North of Beach Road - Take the nost convenient path to U.S. Route 1. Travel south on Route 1 until the intersection with Route 110. Turn west (right) onto Route 110 and travel west to either l the I-95 interchange or to the I-495 interchange. 'Ihen l proceed, as described above, to Beverly. South of Beach Road - Take the nest convenient path to Route 1 and travel l southbound on Route 1 to Route 128, then east to Beverly. 1 r I. L J-5 Rev. 2 l
ERPA C Kensincton -- Host is Manchester tbrthern Section - Take the most cortvanient path to Route 150 northbound. Travel north on Route 150 to the intersection with Route 108. Turn south onto Route 108 and k wuad to the inter-section with Route 107. Turn right (north) onto Route 107 and proceed to the intersection with Route 111. Turn left (west) onto Reute 111 and proceed to the I-93 interchange. l Enter I-93 northbound and gocesi to I-293 to Route 28 to Manchester. Southern Section - Take the nest convenient path to Route 107 northbound toward Kingston. Travel on Route 107 to the intersection with Route 111.- Turn left (West) onto Route 111 and kvcee-1 to the I-93 interchange. Enter I-93 northbound l and proceed to I-293 to Route 28 to Manchester. South Hampton -- Host is Salm - 1+ l Take the most convenient path to either westbound Hilldale !c Ave. or northbound Route 107A. Travel on either route to Route 108. Travel south on Route 108 into Haverhill, to the intersection with Route 110. Turn northbound onto L. Route 110 to the interchange with I-495. Enter I-495 southbound and travel to the exit at Route 97 westbound, g l or to Route 213 westbound. If Route 97 is chosen, proceed l west to Salem. If Route 213 is chosen, proceed west to l Route 28, then north to Route 97 and proceed east to Salem. l \ l
1 J-6 Rev. 2 O1 l
. , -- -_- - . . . _ . . - _ _ . . . - - - l
ERPA D (). V Hampton -- Host is Dmrge Beach area north l of Great Boars - Proceed north along Route 1A to the intea section with l Head Route 101C. Vehicles will turn west (left) onto Route 101C or continue north along Route 1A. Path A: Traffic turning west onto Route 101C will travel to the connector road for I-95. Turn right onto access road to I-95 which joins with west bound Route 51. Exit Route 51 at the I-95 interchange. Proceed on I-95 northbound through the toll plaza to the Spaulding Turnpike or continue north on I-95 into Maine. If the l 2paulding Turnpike is used, take it to Route 108 and l p uces:1 south to Dover. If I-95 is taken into Maine, exit I-95 at Route 236. Travel north on Route 236 to Route 9, i then west to Route 16A. Take Route 16A to Route 16 and l i v(D l then to Route 108 and receed south into Dover, Path B: Vehicles that continue north on Route 1A will turn west (left) onto Route 101D. Proceed along Route 101D to the intersection with Route 1. Continue west on Route 101D and travel to the intersection with Route 151. L Turn north (right) onto Route 151 arxi travel to the intersection with Route 101. Turn right onto Roate 101 and travel to the I-95 northbound ramp. Take I-95 north to the Spaulding Turnpike or, if congested, continue north on I-95 into Maine, and continue as described above for Path L A. 1 Inland Hampton - 'Ihere are two routes for those east of I-95. Those with l access to Route 101C, travel west on Route 101C and continue as specified for Path A, above. 'Ihose north of l l Route 101C with better access to U.S. Route 1, take Route O lO J-7 Rev. 2 I
-. .r . , - - , , _-...,w.. - , . _ , -- ,_. -
n+ 4 1 north to the intersection with Breakfast Hill Road. Proceed north along Route 1 or turn left (west) onto < Breakfast Hill Road. On Route 1, continue north anto Route 1 Bypass to Portsmuth Circle. Fran there, take Spaulding Turnpike to Dover. Fran Breakfast Hill Road, turn north (right) onto
- Route 151 and follow Path B, above.
'Ihose who are west of I-95, take the most convenient path -
to Route 101C. Travel west on Route 101C to Route 108 (Portsmouth Avenue). Tum right (north) onto Route 108 and travel to Dover. North Hampton - Host is Dover East of U.S. Rt. 1 - Take nest convenient path to either Route 101D (Atlantic Avenue) or to North Road, whichever is closer, and travel westbound toward Route 1. From Route 101D, continue west toward Route 151. Turn right (north) onto Route 151 and travel to Route 101. Turn right (east) onto Route 101 and pus =d to the i I-95 northbound ramp. Take I-95 northbound to the l Spaulding Turnpike northbound and then to Route 108. l Proceed south on Route 108 into Dover, i-1 If turning north onto U.S. Route 1 fran North Road, travel l north to Breakfast Hill Road. Turn left (west) onto Breakfast Hill Road or continue north on Route 1, as 1 directed. On Route 1, continue north to Route 1 Bypass to Portsrtouth Circle, then onto Spaulding Turnpike to Dover. Fran Breakfast Hill Roao, turn north (right) onto Route l 151 and travel to Rt. 101. nirn right onto Route 101 to l the northbound ramp onto I-95. Take I-95 north to Maine, J-8 Rev. 2 9
'l or take Spaulding Turnpike to Route 108 and g.vouis-i south
._ l cn Route 108 to Dover. (See Path A, Hampton).
[J]:
\
If nore convenient, take Mill Road north to Washington Road, then wst to U.S. Route 1. Turn right (north) on Route 1 and travel, via Route 1 Bypass to Portancuth Circle. Take Spaulding Turnpike frun the circle north to l Route 108, proceed south on Route 108 to Dover. West of U.S. Rt. 1 - Take the nest convenient path to Route 151. Take Route 151 north and proceed to Dover as described above.
\
l l' 1 J-9 Rev. 2 l l
l' 1 L ^ Merrinac -- Host is North Andover O ' East of Church St. - Take the nost convenient path to Route 110. Take Route 110 L to Broad Street and turn onto Broad Street, southbound. l 1 Proceed south to the I-495 interchange. Enter I-495 > l southbound to Route 114 east to North Andover. West of Church St. - Proceed to Route 110 westbound. ' Continue west on Route 110, to ramp onto I-495 southbound. Enter I-495 1-southbound and proceed to Route 114 east to Ibrth Andover. lWestNewbury--HostisNorthAndcVer \. Northern Section - Take the nest convenient path to Route 113 westbound. l Travel west on Route 113 to Groveland. Fran there take l l' the nest conver.ient route to North Andover: r
- Routes 97/113 west to Route 125, then south or Main St. to Washington St. south to Route 133, then west to Route 125, then south.
l {. Travel south cn Route 125 to Route 114 and take Route 114 . south to tbrth Andover. Southern Section - Take the nest convenient path to South Street. Turn east on South Street and proceed to the I-95 interchange. Enter I-95 southbound to Route 133. Turn west on Route l 133 and proceed to Route 125. l Proceed south on Route 125 to Route 114 and take Route 114 south to tbrth Andover. J-10 9 Rev. 2
r l Th'Dort -- Host is Beverly - V ' Eastern Section East cf i State St. - Proceed to High Street eastbound. Continue east on High i Street (which is Route M southbound) to Green Street. Take Green Street to Hanover Street or continue south on Route 1A. R ose on Hanover Street travel west to Route 1, j then south on Route 1 to Route 62 to Beverly. Sose on l Route 1A travel south to Beverly. Central Section Between Broad and State l Streets - Take the most convenient path to Route 1 south. Travel l south on Route 1 to Route 62, then east on Route 62 to l Beverly. n Western Section ! 'b West of Broad St. - Take the most convenient path to High Street (Route 113) westbound. Travel west on Route 113 to the I-95 interchange. Enter I-95 southbound arri proceed to Route l 62. Rose who initiate their trips west of I-95, travel-l' on Route 113 to I-95, then southbound. In either case, l take eastbound Route 62 to Beverly. l Newbury -- Host is Beverly Plum Island - Proceed to the Plum Island Turnpike westbound. Take Plum Island Turnpike west to Ocean Avenue. Turn south (left) on Ocean Avenue which beccanes Rolfe Lane. Proceed south on Rolfe lane to the intersection with Route 1A. Turn south (left) onto Route M or continue through onto l Hanover St. toward Route 1. Take either Route 1A south to O J-11 Rev. 2
't
- l. Beverly or Route 1 south to Route 62, then east on Route l 62 to Beverly.
Inland - - Take the nest convenient path to either Route 1 south, I-95 southbound or Route 1A southbound. Proceed along l Route 1A south to Beverly or along Route 1 or I-95 south l to Route 62, then eastbound on Route 62 to Beverly. l i e l' l \ l l L l l l 1 i J-12 O Rev. 2
-- -w- p es. rm we+w
1 ERPA F j
/
,( amntwood -- Host is Manchester t I 1 Take the most convenient path to North Road, South Road or Route 111A, westbound. On North Road travel west to Route l 125, then north to Route 101, then west to Route 28 to Manchester. Take South Road or Route lilA west to Route 107. Turn north (right) onto Route 107 and g M to the intersection with Route 101. Turn onto westbound Route 101 l ard proceed to Route 28 to Manchester. East Kinaston - Host is Manchester Take the mst convenient path to Route 107, north. Proceed on Route 107 to the intersection with Route 111. Turn west (left) on Route 111 and proceed to the I-93 interchange. Enter I-93 northbound and gucws.1 to I-293 l to Route 28 and p.vcued to Manchester. Exeter -- Host is Manchester e North Exeter - Take the met convenient path to either Portsmouth Avenue (Route 108) northbound to Route 152, or Newfields Road (Rcute 85) northbound to Route 87. From Rcute 85, turn
west (left) onto Route 87 and travel to Route 125, then north on Route 125 to Route 152. In either case, turn 1 1 west (left) on Route 152 and sucwi=1 to the intersection l with Route 4. Turn west (left) onto Route 4 and gvceed to the I-93 interchange in Concord. Enter I-93 southbound l and travel to I-293 and then to Route 28 and proceed into [ Manchester. West Exeter - Take the most convenient path to Route 111A west. Travel west along Route illa to the intersection with Route 107. Turn north (right) on Route 107 and travel to the O' J-13 Rev. 2
. - - - - . . _ ~ . - -
a l intersection with Route 101. Turn (west) onto westbound h Route 101 and then to Route 28 and r vcoed to Manchester. South Exeter - Take the nost convenient path either to Route 111 westbound or to Route 108 southbound. For the latter, rvciid=3 south on Route 108 to the intersection with Route 107.. Turn west (right) onto Route 107 and W M north to the intersection with Route 111. Turn West (left) crt Route 111 and r h to the I-93 interchange. Enter I-93 l-northbound and suce to I-293 to Route 28 and suco.1 to Manchester. For those who access Route 111 in Exeter, travel west on l Route 111 to I-93 northbound and proceed to I-293 to Route l
\ 28 and s uc M to Manchester.
Newfields -- Host is Manchester Take the nest convenient path to Route 87 west. Trave west along Route 87 to the intersection with Route 125 Turn north (right) onto Route 125 and suce=1 to the intersection with Route 152. Turn west (left) onto Route 152 and evc ed to the intersection with Route 4. Turn west (left) onto Route 4 and suceed to the I-93 interchange in Concord. Enter I-93 southbound and take l I-93 to I-293 to Route 28 and proceed to Manchester. Kinoston -- Host is Sal e Take the nost convenient path to Route 111 west. Proceed { along Route 111 to Route 28, then south to Route 97 and l proceed to Salm. J-14 O Rev. 2
'?
L r
~ Newton -- Host is Salen
- fQ '
Q. . Take the nest convenient path to' Route 108 south. Proceed south on Route 108 to the intarsection with Route 110. t Turn north onto Route 110 and travel to the-interchange ' with I-495. Enter I-495 southbound and t..uvel to the ' interchange with Route 213, than west to Route 28, or - stay on I-495 to I-93, then north to Route 213, than east l To Route 28. Take Route 28 to Route 97 and- p.M to Salem. O l J-15 Rev. 2
l , J 1 4 l ERPA G Greenland -- Host is Dotw O 1 Take the nest convenient path to Route 101 eastbound. l Proceed east on Route 101 to the northbound I-95 entry i ranp. Enter I-95 northbound and sucesl to the Spaulding l Turnpike north to Route 108 and pu.vc l into Dover. ! New Castle - Ibst is Ebver Take the nost convertient path to Marcy Street. Proceed ) west along Marcy Street to Pleasant Avenue. Turn left en l Pleasant Avenue and sucael to State Street. Turn right ; an State Street and suc==d over the Memorial Bridge into Maine. Continue north on Route 1 to the traffic circle at Ramick Corners arri suceed to northbound Route 236. 3 Continue north an Route 236 to the intersection with Route l 9. Take Route 9 west to Route 16A to Route 16 to Route I l 108 and travel south into Dover. Portsnouth - Host is Rochester South Portsnouth - Take the nest convenient path to Route 1 north. Travel l north on Route 1 anto the Route 1 Bypass, then to the ! Portsmouth Traffic Circle. Proceed through the circle and exit onto Spaulding Turnpike. Travel north on Spaulding Turnpike to Rochester. ' East Portsnouth - Take the nest convenient path to Middle Street. Proceed north and west on Middle Street to State Street. Turn north on State Street and proceed across the Mernarial Bridge into Maine. Proceed north on Route 1 to the traffic circle at Ranick Corners and pwceel to northbound Route 236. Take Route 236 to Route 9, then west to Route J-16 O Rev. 2
i ~ 16A. Take Route 16A south to Route 16 and then g.M l north cn Route 16 into Rochester, t s I West Portsnouth - Take the nost convenient path to Woodbury Avenue (Route I
-ll -16). Travel west to Spaulding Turnpiks, then north along-l Spaulding Tampike into Rochester.
Rve -- Host is Dover i South of Rye Hador State Park - Pr M west along Grove Road to the intersection with Washington Road. Continue west on Washington Road to the intersection with Route 1. Turn right (north) onto Route
- 1. Proceed north on Route 1 anto the Route 1 Bypass in Portanouth. Enter the Portsmouth Traffic Circle and l either exit anto Spaulding Turnpike northbound to Route -
l 108 and take Route 108 to Dover, or cross-into Maine via l- f. l I-95. In Maine, take Route 236 westbound to Route 9, then ' l return to New Hampshire and travel to Dover via Route 16
-l' and Route 108.
North of Rye Harbor State Park - Proceed north along Route 1A. Route 1A W Saganore Road in Portsnouth. Cross South Street in Portanouth and cantinue on Miller Avenue. At the intersection of Miller - Avenue and Middle Street turn right (north) anto Middle Street. Continue north an Middle Street through the intersections of State Street and Congress Street onto l Maplewood Avenue. Continue on Maplewood Avenue to Spaulding Turnpike. Enter northbound Spaulding Turnpike l and travel north to Route 108 and take Route 108 to Dover.
] Else cross into Maine arri g.M to Dover as described l above.
O J-17 Rev. 2
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t Stratham - Host is Manchester , Take the nost ccrivanient path to Route 108 north. Proceed 9 north en Route 108 to either the f.ntersectica 'with Route ; 152 or with U.S. Roate 4. Turn west en Route 152 or on ; Route 4 and continue to the junction of Route 4 and Route 152. Continue west on Route 4 to the= entry ranp to I-93 l southbound. Take I-93 south to I-293 and gh to Route l 28 to Manchester. [ i r 9 l l J-18 Rev. 2 9
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