Text

Evacuation Clear Time Estimates for Areas Near Seabrook Station
	ML20076N103
Person / Time
Site:	Seabrook
Issue date:	07/31/1983
From:	; HMM ASSOCIATES, INC.
To:	;
Shared Package
ML20076N057	List: ML20076N049; ML20076N081; ML20076N103;
References
	NUDOCS 8307210200
	Download: ML20076N103 (92)
	v • d • e

{{#Wiki_filter:. __ d m-P P 4 EVACUATION CLEAR TIME ESTIMATES FOR AREAS NEAR SEABROOK STATION Updated'1981 Revised July 1983 Prepared for: YANKEE ATOMIC ELECTRIC COMPANY -Prepared by: HMM-ASSOCIATES, INC. Waltham, MA 5 l 8307210200 830715 PDR ADOCK 05000443 ,. J _ PDR

d TABLE OF CONTENTS Pegg 1. INTRODUCTION 1-1 2. POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATION 2-1 3. EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE AND SUBAREAS 3-1 4. THE EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK 4-1 5. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY 5-1 6. ESTIMATES OF EVACUATION TIMES 6-1 7. SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATIONS 7-1 APPENDIX A PERMANENT POPULATION ROSE: AUTOMOBILE DEMAND ESTIMATES ASSOCIATED WITH PERMANENT AND DAILY TRANSIENT POPULATION COMPONENTS APPENDIX B NETWORK LISTING APPENDIX C COMMENTS BY THE MASSACHUSETTS CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCY -111-

LIST OF FIGURES Floure ^ Page 1 Site Vicinity Map 3 2 Seabrook Station Plume Exposure EPZ l-4 3 NETVAC Simulation Flow Diagram 1-10 l 4 Estimated Automobile Demand - 1983 Resident Population 2-4 5 Estimated VePlcle Demand of Seasonal Residents 2-5 6 Estimate of Summer,.1983 Transient Vehicle Demand 2-11 7 Estimate of Beach Area Lots and On-Street Parking for Summer Weekday 2-13 8 Off-Season Transient 1983 Vehicle Demand Estimate 2-18 9 1800 North, O to 2 Mile Case 3-4 10 1800 South, O to 2 Mile Case 3-5 11 900 Northeast, O to 5 Mile Case 3-6 12 900 Southeast, O to 5 Mile Case 3-7 13 900 Southwest, O to 5 Mile Case 3-8 14 900 Northwest, O to 5 Mile Case 3-9 15 900 Northeast, O to 10 Mile Case 3-10 16 900 Southeast, O to 10 Mile Case 3-11 17 900 Southwest, O to 10 Mile Case 3-12 18 900 Northwest, O to 10 Mile Case 3-13 19 3600, O to 2 Mile case 3-14 20 3600, O to 5 Mile Case 3-15 21 3600, Entire EPZ 3-16 22 Evacuation Roadway Network Within 5 Miles 4-4 l of Seabrook Station i -iv-

LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Populations of Municipalities Wholly or Partially Within 10 Miles of the Site 2-2 2 Summary - Estimate of Vehicles Associated with Summer Transient Population 2-7 3 Summary - Estimate of Vehicles Associated with Off-Season Transient Population 2-15 4 Estimates of Evacuation Clear Times by EPZ Analysis Areas 6-2 -v-

_. - _. ~ . _.. _.. = _ _ _ -. 1. INTRODUCTION i l

1. l' General k

The purpose of this report is to supplement estimates of evacu-ation times around Seabrook Station, previously submitted to the l Nuclear Regulatory Commission in August 1980. The previous evacua-tion time estimates for Seabrook Station were prepared prior to the ' publication of the revised NUREG-0654, issued in November, 1980. Figures 9 through 21 (in Section 3) indicate the areas for which evacuation time estimates were made. Time estimates for five condi-tions were developed. First, estimates were.made for a peak, fair weather, summer weekend condition during which the peak population for-the area is experienced. Second, estimates were prepared for a ' peak summer weekday condition which would experience a decrease in seasonal transient residents, compared to the peak summer weekend l ' condition. Third, estimates we:e made for an off-seascn, typical weekday population condition. Fourth, estimates were made for the { off-season, typical weekday condition with an' assumed reduction in l the capacity of the evacuation road network of 30%, which is intend- >ed to represent impediments to traffic flow during adverse weather such as fog, rain, or snow. Finally, estimates were made for a peak summer weekend, adverse weather condition. Estimates for the latter condition, which also assumed _a reduction in evacuation roadway net-4 work capacity of 30%, were developed to consider the possibility of a sudden rainstorm or fog during-a summer weekend period where the [ -beach areas within the_EPZ are at capacity. -Estimates of the number of vehicles-associated with an evacuation of the permanent and tran- _sient populations were developed assuming a general evacuation by private passenger. vehicle. l A summary _of the time estimates for_the evacuation cases i-considered is presented in. Table 4, Section 6. These estimates l assume'd no formalftraffic control measures would be in effect, i existing traffic patterns would prevail, and no specified. evacuation routings would be. enforced.* These-clear time i i

As area evacuation plans are developed additional analyses can be~ performed:to? account.for'and actually assist in specifying emergency = evacuation control measures.;

l-1

calculations were undertaken using available data and a traffic simulation model, NETVAC (EVAC).* 1.2 Site Location and Emergency Plannina Zone l The Seabrook Station nuclear power plant is located in Seabrook, New Hampshire, approximately two miles north of the Massachusetts border. A site vicinity map is included in Figure 1. The plume exposure EPZ boundary includes portions of southeastern New Hampshire and northeastern Massachusetts. For the most part, Town and geographical boundaries were used to delineate the 10-mile EPZ boundary and the various sectoral analysis areas required by NUREG-0654, Appendix 4. Figure 2 presents the plume exposure EPZ developed for the Seabrook Station site. 1.3 General Assumptions Several qualifying assumptions were made during the course of this, and prior, evacuation studies for Seabrook Station. These assumptions were required to take into account various site-specific characteristics of the Seabrook Station EPZ. The l following are the sources of input data and the major assumptions used for the analysis, e The evacuation clear time estimates, presented herein, represent the time to evacuate the EPZ or specified subareas within it, and do not include the time required for initial alert and notification. (NOTE:' It is assumed, however, that design objectives of NUREG-0654 for alert notification will be addressed.)

Previously, this model was referred to as EVAC.

Subsequently, the simulation model name has been changed to NETVAC. The NETVAC software package is identical to the ) prior EVAC software. 1-2

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e The permanent population sector will evacuate from their place of residence. All transient populations will evacuate from their respective work place, beach area, etc. e It is assumed that existing lane utilization and traffic control would prevail during the course of the evacuation. e Mobilization and preparation times for the various population sectors are implied by the vehicle loading rate assumptions used for the analysis (refer to Section 5). e Roadway and intersection approach capacities were calculated by the NETVAC (EVAC) model using algorithms developed from the " Highway Capacity l Manual"* and relationships identified in the Interim Materials on Highway, Capacity"** (refer to Section 5). e Population estimates were developed from: 1) the number of year-round electric meters in 1979; 2) 1970 U.S. Census of Housing data; 3) a review of local U.S.G.S. maps; and " Highway Capacity Manual," Highway Research Board Special Report No. 87, National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, 1965. " Interim Materials on Highway Capacity,"-Transportation Research Circular No. 212, Transportation Research Board, National Academy of Sciences, January, 1980. l 1-5

4) a 1978 weekday-weekend occupancy and transient population survey conducted by HMM. Future (i.e.. 1983) estimates were developed based on projections from the N.H. Office of ~ Comprehensive Planning, and the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (refer to Section 2). It is assumed that adverse w"eather such as fog, rain e or snow will reduce effective roadway capacity by 30%. 1.4 Methodology The methodology employed by HMM involved the use of a computer-based evacuation simulation model. Roadway geometric j and operation 91 data were collected by HMM personnel during 1979 and were reviewed in 1980. In addition to information gathere'd in treese field surveys of the transportation network, numerous published sources were reviewed, including: e U.S. Geological Survey Topographic Maps; e Local and State roadway clacsification maps; e 1970 "ederal Census " Final Population and Housing Unit Counts" prepared by the Federal Bureau of the Census. The computer simulation model used to perform the time l estimate procedure is referred to as NETVAC (EVAC). This is a proprietory computer program developed for HMM by Professor Yosef Sheffi of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology i Center for Transportation Studies. The model was developed specifically to provide evacuation clear time estimates and j related information for use in emergency planning. 1-6 I ~w ev

The NETVAC (EVAC) program has the following characteristics which led to its selection for use in this study. e The model accounts for the detailed distribution of vehicle demand. e The model considers fundamental physical and opera-tional characteristics of the evacuation road network. e The model accounts for the dynamic characteristics of evacuation traffic flows. e The model provides documentation of results. e The model provides a means for examining a complex problem in a structured manner, o The model can address fair weather versus adverse weather conditions, e The.model can address changes in population which would be likely te occur within the EPZ at different times of the week and at different times of year. This approach was considered appropriate since it would -provide re. quired evacuation time estimates. The NETVAC (EVAC) program is a flexible, fixed-step, macro traffic simulation model which uses traffic flow relationships to calculate and record traffic densities, speeds, flows, queues, spill-backs and other relevant information throughout the evacuation process. T1affic is first entered (loaced) at designated points (entry nodes) in the highway network. At every simulation interval, the model processes vehicles from links (road segments) entering an intersection to the links I-1-7

emanating from it (outbound links or evacuation routes). The model employs a sophisticated list processing method to represent the evacuation as a series of links and nodes (intersections). NETVAC includes a dynamic route selection feature-whereby drivers' choice of outbound links, at every intersection, is based on two criteria: 1) The degree to which an outbound link leads away from the plant, or the direction of specific evacuation routings where such plans exist. 2) The traffic conditions on the outbouno links (i.e., speeds and queueing). The roadway and intersection approach capacities calculated by the NETVAC (EVAC) program are based upon data and relationships presented in the 1965 " Highway Capacity Manual" (HRB SR87) and the 1980 " Interim Materials on Highway Capacity" (HRB TRC212). Due to the dynamic route assignment mechanism, approach capacities are updated at each simulation interval to l account for potential changing turning movements. The intersection control options which can be -specified with NETVAC }- (EVAC) include intersections with traffic signals and priority a control intersections (i.e., accounting for stop signs and yield signs in instances where they can be assumed to be obeyed). The core of the NETVAC (EVAC) program is the Simulator. This part of the program executes a given number of procedures l at every user-specified simulation interval. The simulator includes two major logical units: the link pass and the node pass. The link pass calculates the number of vehicles that would reach-the. upstream node or join the queue there in a given simulation interval. The node pass calculates how many vehicles should be processed from each of the links entering a t l 1-8 i l l-

'particular intersection (inbound links) to each of the outbound links. Figure 3 schematically represents the inter-relationship bet. ween the link pass and node pass simulation procedures. O 1-9

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) 2. POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATION In order to estimate the evacuation times, 1983 summer and off-season vehicle demands were developed for areas within the ~ 10-mile EPZ. The total vehicle demands were developed based on a review of three components of population: permanent resident, seasonal resident, and daily transient population. These data provided the basis for estimating the potential number of vehicles involved in a general evacuation. Since the study area has a significant influx of population in the beach area during the summer period, a vehicle demand estimate for a summer weekend condition was made and used for this evacuation time analysis. This estimate is representative of peak total population in the stuoy area. An estimate was also developed for a weekday summer population condition. A third vehicle demand estimate was made for a winter weekday condition. This third demand estimate was used to evaluate evacuation times under both typical and adverse weather conditions during winter weekday periods. The vehicle demand estimates are described below for both the summer and off-season periods. Summer Weekend Vehicle Demand Estimate Permanent Population Table 1 provides a summary of the projected 1983 permanent population for communities in the vicinity of the site. Appendix A includes a figure indicating the general distribution of this permanent population (note Figure A-1). This distribution of population for the area within the five mile radius of Seabrook Station was based on the number of year-round electric meters in 1979. Equal area allocation and review of local USGS maps provided the basis for distributing i 2-1

TABLE 1 POPULATIONS OF MUNICIPALITIES WHOLLY OR PARTIALLY WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE SITE ~ New Hampshire 1970(1 1980(2) 1983 4) Brentwood 1,468 2,170 2,668 East Kingston 838 1,190 1,376 Exeter 8,892 10,720 11,230 Greenland 1,784 2,210 2,564 Hampton 8,011 10,820 12,278 Hampton Falls 1,254 1,500 1,602 Kensington 1,044 1,350 1,518 Kingston(5) 2,882 4,640 5,016 Newfields(5) 843 1,000 1,060 Newton 1,920 4,060 4,678 North Hampton 3,259 4,910 5,888 Portsmouth(5) 25,717 28,430 28,580 Rye 4,083 5,230 6,034 Seabrook 3,053 6,000 6,672 South Hampton 558 800 920 Stratham 1,512 2,500 3,040 Massachusetts Amesbury 11,388 16,560(3) 17,000 Haverhill(5) 46,120 46,340 47,300 Merrimac 4,245 4,710 4,800 Newbury 3,804 4,920 5,010 Newburyport 15,807 16,740 17,000 Salisbury 4,179 5,150 5,250 West Newbury 2,254 2,690 2,750 (1)U.S. Census of Population, 1970. (2) Interim Revisions, New Hampshire Population Projections for Towns and Cities to the Year 2000. August, 1977. NH Office of Comprehensive Planning. Projected 1980 populations for East Kingston, Exeter, Seabrook, and Stratham are less than 1978 population estimates for the same communities, Rockingham and Stratford County Population Data: 1978 Esti-mates - Rockingham Stratford Census Project. This is also noted for these same communities and Portsmouth in the 1978 Population Estimates of N.H. Cities and Towns prepared by the NH Office of Comprehensive Planning, August 1979. (3) Population Projections 1980-1985, Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Office of State Health Planning, August, 1978. (4) Estimates based on same sources indicated on footnotes (2) and (3) and interpolated for 1983. (5) Permanent population of these municipalities not included in clear time estimates because only small portions lie within the 10-mile EPZ. 2-2

=- the population between the 5 and 10 mile radii.* Vehicle demand estimates for the permanent population component were derived by dividing the total permanent population by an average automobile occupancy factor of 3.0 persons.** Figure 4 shows the resulting estimate and distribution of permanent population ve51cle demands. Seasonal Residents The seasonal resident vehicle demand was estimated from the number of seasonal residences in the area. Several sources of data were reviewed in order to develop this estimate. These sources included: (1) 1961 general highway maps of Rockingham County, NH, (2) 1970 U.S. Census of Housing, (3) 1978-79 electric meter use data, and (4) a 1978 weekday-weekend occupancy survey. The distribution and number of automobiles associated with the summer weekend seasonal resident population is shown on Figure 5. These estimates were developed assuming two vehicles per seasonal unit. Daily Transient Population In addition to the permanent and seasonal resident populations a large influx of daily transients to the beach area can be observed during the summer period. This influx is t greatest on a fair weather weekend or holiday. Estimates of daily transient visitor vehicle demand are included as Figures in Appendix A. Automobile demands associated with the daily transient component were estimated as follows: I e Overnight Accommodations - 1 vehicle per unit (Hotel & Motels) (Figure A-2 in Appendix A) e Campgrounds - 1 vehicle per campsite (Figure A-2 in Appendix A)

1.e. population was assigned proportional to the size of the area to which it was assigned, or distributed evenly over each town.
- 1970 U.S. Census of Housing, persons per occupied dwelling:

New Hampshire - 3.5, Massachusetts - 3.1, Rockingham County, New Hampshire - 3.3. 2-3 l ~ --._y r

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e Beaches and Beach Area - Capacity estimate of fee Facilities and free parking lots available to the general public and estimate of on-street parking (Figure A-3 in Appendix A) e Seabrook Greyhound Park - Capacity estimate of lot (Figure A-4 in Appendix A) e Seabrook Station - Estimate of 2000 vehicles (Figure A-4 in Appendix A) l e Route 1 - Capacity estimate of ( major shopping facilities l (Figure A-5 in Appendix A) Table 2 provides a summary of vehicle demand estimates associated with the summer transient population (seasonal residents, overnight visitors and daily transients). Figure 6 shows the distribution of this estimated vehicle demand. These estimates were combined with the automobile demand of the permanent population to obtain the estimated totc1 number of vehicles to be evacuated. j Summer Weekday Demand Estimate The total vehicle demand for the summer weekday case was based on a review of three components of populations: permanent resident, seasonal resident and daily transient population.- The summer weekday estimate of vehicles associated with the permanent population and seasonal resident population were the same as those used for the peak summer weekend case. The transient population was also estimated for the summer weekday-case and combined with the permanent and seasonal resident vehicle demand. The difference between the peak 2-6

TABLE 2 SlM4ARY-ESTIMATE OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH SUMMER TRANSIENT POPULATION (Seasonal Residents, Overnight Visitors, and Daily Transients - 1983) Seabrook Station Sec-Population Distance (in miles) from Seabrook Station ~ tor Type 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 N Seasonal 0 10 24 22 8 76 16 16 16 30 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 92 23 61 0 0-0 0 0 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 125 0 0 190 0 0 0 0 Total 0 10 241 45 69 266 16 16 16 30 NNW Seasonal O 26 16 14 10 46 30 30 22 22 Overnight Accommodations 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 56 16 14 10 46 30 30 22 22 NW Seasonal 0 14 20 16 14 8 16 60 60 8 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 55 0 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0 0 300 0 0 148 0 0 Total 0 14 20 16 314 8 16 243 115 8 WNW Seasonal 0 2 10 4 22 22 26 30 34 38 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 2 10 4 22 22 26 30 34 38 2-7

TABLE 2 (Continued) SONARY-ESTIMATE OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH SONER TRANSIENT POPULATION (Seasonal Residents, Overnight Visitors, and Daily Transients - 1983) Seabrook Station Sec-Population Distance (in miles) from Seabrook Station tor Type 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8 9-10 W Seasonal 2 20 6 8 22 16 30 30 38 38 Overnight Accommodations 0 80 0 0 0 0 0-0 0 0 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seabrook Grey-hound Park 0 0 3077 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seabrook Station 2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 2002 100 3083 8 22 16 30 30 38 38 WSW Seasonal 0 28 30 8 30 38 10 10 20 20 Overnight Accommodations 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 244 0 0 Total 0 73 30 8 30 38 10 254 20 20 SW Seasonal 2 26 12 4 72 28 2 2 2 2 Overnight Accommodations 0 28 0 0 60 28 0 0 0 0 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 2 54 12 4 132 56 2 2 2 2 SSW Seasonal 4 8 14 16 14 150 150 38 18 18 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 23 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 4 8 37 16 14 161 150 38 18 18 2-8

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? 'NJ i SLM4ARY-ESTINATE CF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED UTH SLMER TRANSIENT Pgh71bM U (Seasonal Residents, Overnight Visitors,~,and Oajly' Transients t 1983P ' ~ Seabrook Station \\' s-s Sec-Population Distance ' sin ailes) from Seisbrook StaMon \\. tor Type 0-1 1-2~ 2 3 C 4-5 5-6 '6-7 7-8 ~ B-9. 9-10 \\ S Seasonal 4 10 _ 36 30 } 64 26

412, 26 26 - - 26 Overnight b ?

s Accommodations 0 0' O. 5is 208 0 's 29'- D <D . O Beach Area i y 4- - t s Parking Lotse m %' N -4 and on-street i s /- ~ O 0 G 0 i N Parking 0 0.f O' O O O

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s c Campgrounds 0 75 0 0 80 0 s s s' s ~ Total 4 85 A 36 s35 \\+352s 'J26 ^441 !26.- 26 2,6 */ ~ .s\\ \\ s t t s. . : -~~ s t y Overnight '~-v T E l \\ ~ ~'[ ~ 'O..360 560 0 0 SSE Seasonal O, 6 172 z514 4 604 ~ g g. Accommodations " ' 0' O-0. "40 f 196 '_ 8 0 29 0 0 Beach Area x 1w . 4 b,* y Parking Lots 'e { c ) c. and on-stre.et - s. s -- Parking D. 0 -O' 1280 1013" 2029' 514 X599 71F d' s s (f- #0 i Campgrounds + 0. 0 0 0 1 85 N< ! 0 ' ' ( x 0' O a Total' O 6. 172 1834. 3098 2037 1074 1188 71' 'O SE Seasonal 0 22 420 0 .0 l- 0 0 SO 'O 0. .. A ' Overnight "?!.., 2 ' Accommodations.- 0 0 0 - 's 0 0, 0 0 \\ (/ b; T. O O ~ 1 Beach Area 'O ?,+. Parking Lots \\' I and on-street' Parking 0 0 698 0 '0 '.0 'O O O 0

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'N Campgrounds 0 0 0' C /s Oy J 0, 3; s g ;,, ',, o 0 0 O . ~ ..e Total 0 22 1138 0 0 cA s 0' O. 0 0 y 5 \\., ESE Seasonal '.- 0 724 0 0 0 0;p 0 0 0 0 5 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0' .0 c 0-0 0 0 0 'o .A), 2,' fs Beach Area 7 Parking Lots and on-street s s 1 Parking 0 966 0 0; ) 0 .0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0. 0 0 0 0 30 0 0 m. Total _ O' 1690' O - O s0 0 ;, 0 (h _ 0 0 ,s, ~ ~ 8 a c.

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t TABLE 2 (Continued) Ste44ARY-ESTIMATE OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH SLNMER TRANSIENT POPULATION (Seasonal Residents, Overnight Visitors, and Daily Transients - 1983) Seabrook Station Sec-8 pulation Distance (in miles) from Seabrook Station - 0 tor Type 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 E Seasonal 0 690 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Overnight Accommodations 0 429 0 0 0 0 0-0 0 0 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 2808 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 3927 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ENE Seasonal 0 948 1102 104 0 0 0 0 0 0 Overnight Accommodations 0 1156 849 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 2439 870 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 4543 2821 163 0 0 0 0 0 0 . NE Seasonal 0 122 162 1088 492 24 72 72 48 24 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 82 250 22 0 0 108 32 26 Beach Area Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 0 0 982 664 179 0 587 409 180 s m Campgrounds 0 0 0 190 0 0 0 0 0 0 - y-Total 0 122 244 2510 1178 203 72 767 489 230 \\ NNE Seasonal 0 0 64 56 2 22 26 30 34 38 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 44 12 0 0 0 19 21 0 ~ Beach Area P Parking Lots and on-street Parking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Campgrounds 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 108 68 2 22 26 49 55 38 N 2-10 e

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/ I s. n e e e e, en en 1733 ve 4, IF3 as fag '*3 4 38 Io WW se l,s.e y, g ,e, .ee so,e e <, se sies se e se ss S OTAL. 39,393 FIGURE 6 / 1983 TRANSIENT VEHICLE DEMAND / ESTIMATE OF SUMMER,Includes Seasonal Residents, (Composite Overnight Visitors, and Daily Transients) 1 2-11

summer weekend and weekday estimate of transient vehicle cemand is the reduction in the number of vehicles associated with the beach arca parking fa'cilities and the additional vehicles estimated as being associated with major manufacturing facilities (i.e., work force) in the study area. The summer weekday vehicle demand estimate associateo with the beach area facilities was devloped from a review of aerial survey data. Beach area parking facilities were photographeo on 42 weekdays during the summer of 1979. The peak weekday observation, occurring on July 20, 1979, was used to develop the summer weekday vehicle demand. An estimate of vehicles associated with on-street parking was also oeveloped for beach area sectors using the 1979 se' rial photography. This estimate of vehicles associated with beach area parking lots and on-street parking is included in Figure 7. Other components of the daily transient population were those used for the summer weekend case (e.g., overnight accommodctions estimated at one vehicle per unit, campgrounos estimatec at one vehicle per campsite, Seabrook Greyhound Park estimated at the capacity of the parking lot, Seabrook Station estimated at 2,000 vehicles, and parking facility capacity estimates of major shopping facilities along Route 1). Figures A-2, A-4 and A-5 in Appendix A provide estimates of these demands and their sector distribution. Thus, the automobile demano associated with the peak summer weekday case was adjusted to reflect a decrease of automobiles associated with daily transient parking in lots and on-street. This daily transient vehicle oemand for the summer weekend case was 17,147 vehicles as compared to 6,871 vehicles used for the weekday case (Note: the weekend estimate assumed all parking facilities'at capacity, the weekday estimate is about 40% of this capacity). The number of automobiles estimated to be associated with major manufacturing employment is 7,510. Thus, the decrease in the beach area demand for the summer weekday case was off-set by an increase in vehicles associated with employers in other portions of the stucy area. 2-12 i

N NNW NNE NW-NE 67 133 239 0 WNW ENE 333 196 361 495 W i as9 354 376 239 WSW 561 431 118 4 SE SW 64 SSW SSE S FIGURE 7 ESTINATE OF BEACH AREA LOTS AND ON-STREET PARKING FOR SUMMER WEEKDAY 2-13

l Off-Season Vehicle Demand Estimate A similar approach to estimate vehicle demand during an off-season period was used. The off-season automobile estimate included consideration of the same components of population as noted above for the summer cases. Automobile demand for the permanent population was estimated in the same manner as for the summer case. However, a smaller seasonal resident component was used to account for off-season rentals and general use. This was estimated at one vehicle per unit associated with 10% of the total seasonal units occupiec (refer to Figure A-6 in Appendix A). The off-season daily transient automobile demand estimated also included: e Overnight - 1 vehicle per unit for Accommodations units open year-round (Figure A-7 in Appendix A) e Seabrook Greyhound - Same as estimate for Park, Seabrook summer periods Station and Route 1 (Figures A-4 and A-5 in Appendix A) Major Shopping e Major Employers - Estimated at 1 vehicle per employee for major manufacturers (Figure A-8 in Appendix A) Table 3 provides a summary of the estimated vehicle demand for the seasonal resident and daily transient populoLion components. Figure 8 shows the distribution of this off-season automobile demand. These estimates were combined with those for the permanent resident population to obtain the total number of automobiles to be evacuated for the off-season case. 2-14

ABLE 3 SLM4ARY-ESTIMATE OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH OFF SEASON TRANSIENT POPULATION (Seasonal Residents, Overnight Visitors,ionand Daily Transients - 1963)

Seabrook Stat Sec-Population Distance (in miles) from Seabrook StElon - tor Type 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 N Seasonal * (105) with 1 Veh/DW 0 1 1 1 0 4 1 1 1 3 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 75 23 30 0 0 0 0 0 Major Employers 0 26 0 280 125 0 0 0 0 74 Route 1 0 58 0 0 792 148 0 0 0 0 Total 0 85 76 304 947 152 1 1 1 77 NNW Seasonal * (105) with 1 Veh/0W 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 1 Overnight Acconnodations 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Major Egloyers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 400 0 0 Route 1 0 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 45 1 1 1 3 2 402 1 1 NW Seasonal * (105) with 1 Veh/DW 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 3 3 0 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 55 0 1 Major Employers 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 508 394 0 Route 1 0 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 53 1 1 1 0 1 546 452 0 WNW Seasonal * (105) 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Major Employers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 Route 1 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 35 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 W Seasonal * (105) 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 Overnight l Accommodations 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Major Employers 0 411 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 1 710 93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seabrook l Greyhound Park 0 0 3077 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 l Seabrook Station 2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 l Total 2710 585 3089 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 l 2-15

TABLE 3 (Continued) SLM4ARY-ESTIMATE OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH OFF SEASON TRANSIENT POPLtATION (Seasonal Residents, Overnight Visitors, and Daily Transients - 1983) Seabrook Station Sec-Population Distance (in miles) from Seabrook Stat-lon tor Type 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 B-9 9-10 WSW Seasonal * (10%) 0 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0 0 Major Employers 0 950 95 0 194 15 0 0 188 0 Route 1 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 988 97 1 196 17 1 1 189 1 SW Seasonal * (10%) 0 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0 60 28 0 0 0 0 Major Employers 0 98 0 0 938 396 302 0 0 0 Route 1 0 976 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 1075 1 0 1002 425 302 0 0 0 SSW Seasonal * (10%) 0 1 1 1 1 8 8 2 1 1 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 20 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 Major Employers 0 0 5 0 20 1409 497 0 0 0 Route 1 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 Total 0 1 26 1 21 1478 505 2 1 1 S Seasonal * (10%) 0 1 2 2 3 1 21 1 1 1 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0 13 0 29 0 0 0 Major Employers 0 80 0 0 54 0 279 72 0 0 Route 1 0 0 0 76 17 264 530 0 0 0 Total 0 81 2 78 87 265 859 73 1 1 SSE Seasonal * (10%) 0 0 9 26 30 0 28 28 0 0 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 8 38 0 0 7 0 0 Major Employers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 0 9 34 68 0 28 35 0 0 2-36

r TABLE 3 (Continued) SLAMARY-ESTIMATE OF VEHICLES ASSOCIATED WITH OFF SEASON TRANSIENT POPLA.ATION (Seasonal Residents, Overnight Visitors, and Daily Transients - 1983) Seabrook Station Sec-Population Distance (in miles) from Seabrook Station tor Type 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 SE Seasonal * (105) 0 1 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Major Egloyers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 1 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ESE Seasonal * (105) 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Major Employers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 E Seasonal * (105) 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Overnight Accommodations 0 125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Major Employers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ENE Seasonal * (105) 0 47 55 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 Overnight Accommodations 0 246 285 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Major Employers 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 293 340 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 NE Seasonal * (105) 0 6 8 54 24 1 4 4 2 1 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 32 18 0 0 0 0 7 19 MajorEmployers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Route 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 6 40 72 24 1 4 4 9 20 NPE Seasonal * (10E) 0 0 3 3 0 1 1 2 2 2 Overnight Accommodations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Major Egloyers 0 0 0 0 46 0 0 0 0 0 Route 1 0 0 155 111 0 0 0 140 0 891 Total 0 0 158 114 46 1 1 142 2 893 2-17

N NN yy NE y. a. 30 452 = 182 ses = 4 WetW t I 2 .04 I 2 .to g4 i et.: n i f

- 0 S

'e-wio u,.e .1,,L.L..,.},,,,,,,..'. 2' 8 8 8 l 1 1 1 o E lso. i i t of s 22 '=' Est ws \\.. \\- i as j ,a g i 1 1 ss i se S TOTAL;'* *** i FIGURE 8 0FF-SEASON TRANSIENT 1983 VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATE (Seasonal Residents, Overnight Visitors, and Daily Transients-1983) I 2-18 1

3. EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE AND SUBAREAS In its requir(ments for evacuation time estimates NUREG-0654, Appendix 4, provides the following guidance: "The sub-areas for which evacuation time estimates are required must encompass the entire area within the plume exposure EPZ. Additionally, evacuation time estimates are also required for simultaneous evacuation of the entire plume exposure pathway. The areas to be considered are as follows: Radius Area about 2 miles four 900 sectors about 5 miles four 900 sectors about 10 miles (EPZ) four 900 sectors about 10 miles (EPZ) entire EPZ When making estimates for the outer sectors assume that the inner adjacent sectors are being evacuafed simultaneously. The boundaries of the sub-areas shall be based upon the same factors as the EPZ, namely demography, topography, land characteristics, access routes, and local jurisdictions." 3.1 Communities Within 2, 5 and 10 Miles The area within a 10 mile radius of Seabrook Station includes portions of both New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Areas within approximately two, five and ten miles of Seabrook Station were analyzed: e 2 Mile Radius The two mile radius falls entirely within New Hampshire. It includes portions of three communities: Hampton, Hampton Falls and Seabrook. 3-1

l i l \\ e 5 Mile Radius The Town of Seabrook is entirely within this raolus, as are portions of five other New Hampshire l communities including North Hampton, Hamptun, Hampton Falls, Kensington, and South Hampton. In addition, portions of two Massachusetts communities, Amesbury and Salisbury, are within the five mile radius. j e 10 Mile Radius ( l In addition to the above noted communities, East Kingston and portions of Newton, Kingston, Brentwood, Exeter, Newfields, Stratham, Greenland, Portsmouth and Rye (New Hampshire) and portions of Merrimac, Haverhill, West Newbury, Newburyport and Newbury (Massachusetts) are within the 10 mile radius of Seabrook Station. 1 Figures 9 to 21 show the geographical bounds of the cases for which evacuation clear time estimates have been compiled. The following is a brief description of these study areas. The areas are roughly based upon the 2, 5 and 10 mile radii and various 900 and 1800 sectors. The precise bounds of the analysis areas, however, largely follow town boundaries and major geographic landmarks such as the coastal beachs or major highways. 3-2

Floure Sectors / Distance Boundaries i 9 1800 North," Hampton Falls, Hampton 0 to 2 miles 10 1800 South, Seabrook O to 2 miles 11 900 Northeast, North Hampton, Hampton, ano O to 5 miles Hampton Falls east of I-95 12 900 Southeast, Seabrook and Salisbury 0 to 5 miles 13 900 Southwest, South Hampton, Amesbury, and 0 to 5 miles western portions of Salisbury and Seabrook 14 900 Northwest, Hampton Falls, Kensington 0 to 5 miles 15 900 Northeast, North Hampton, Hampton, Hampton 0 to 10 miles Falls east of 1-95, and por-tions of Greenland and Rye within 10 mile radius. 16 900 Southeast, Seabrook, Salisbury, Newbury-O to 10 miles port, and Newbury. 17 900 Southwest, South Hampton, Amesbury, O to 10 miles Merrimac, West Newbury, and portions of Newton and Seabrook. 18 900 Northwest, Seabrook, Hampton Falls, O to 10 miles Kensington, South Hampton and portions of Newton, Exeter and Stratham and Seabrook. 19 3600, O to 2 miles Hampton Falls, Hampton, Seabrook 20 3600, O to 5 miles North Hampton, Hampton, Hampton Falls, Kensington, Seabrook, South Hampton, Amesbury, Salisbury 21 3600, Entire EPZ Rye, Greenlano, Stratham, North Hampton, Exeter, East Kingston, Kensington, Hampton Falls, Hampton, Newton, South Hampton, Seabrook, Merrimac, Amesbury, Salisbury, West Newbury, Newburyport, Newbury 3-3

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l 4. THE EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK l An inventory of physical and operational characteristics of the roadway network likely to be used by departing persons was undertaken in order to estimate evacuation times. The transportation network elements considered in the modeling consist of major streets and intersections within the study area.* The major streets within the 10-mile study area include roadways of the following' classifications: e Expressways. As characterized by high design standards, limited access, grade separation and primarily through-t'affic. Routes I-95, I-495 and r the Hampton-Exeter Expressway, which is two lanes running east-west between Exeter and beach area of Hampton, are the expressways within a 10-mile radius of the site. e Arterial Streets. As characterized by continuity of travel, connecting business, population, or major recreation areas, and traffic controls and geometric designs which enhance traffic flow and safety. Examples of main arterials in the evacuation area include U.S. Route 1, Massachusetts Route 110, New Hampshire Route 286, and Route 1A in New Hampshire and Massachusetts. l I t The study area has been designed to be consistent with the plume exposure emergency planning zone (EPZ) suggested by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The plume exposure EPZ as defined by NRC is the area within approximately 10 miles of the nuclear plant site. 4-1

I l 1-e Collector Streets are links between residential areas served by local roads and arterial streets. ] These are characterized by low design standards and I frequent stops at minor intersections. Examples of collector streets include Depot and Walton Roads in 5eabrook,' Woodland and Mill Roads in Seabrook, and Congress Street in Amesbury and Salisbury. In addition to the roadways, the evacuation network includes the intersections of major streets. The intersections are particularly important, since the ability of intersections to handle traffic-is the major' capacity constraint during an evacuation. For the purpose of identification and for subsequently calculating evacuation times, the network has been coded into a system of links (roadway sections) and nodes (intersections). A total of 211 nodes, representing the intersections, have been included in the network. These nodes have been given numerical identifier codes. A total of 435 links, representing the actual evacuation segments, are included in the network. " Entry" links and nodes are the mechanisms used to load the evacuation network with the departing automobiles. For modeling purposes, all automobiles are assumed to " enter" the real network at entry nodes (i.e., entry nodes are used as surrogates for all the parking lots, driveways, etc., from which the evacuating automobiles originate). The entry link is the link between the entry node and the internal node where the vehicles enter the network. For the Seabrook Station network, 136 entry nodes were selected. l Once processed through the internal evacuation network the vehicles are simulated to leave the internal network at " exit nodes". Exit nodes are placed on the evacuation routes that depart the EPZ. They are generally located along the perimeter -of the EPZ. 4 l l 4-2 l

\\ \\. ^ s s s .~, ['} f x, t s,. The major portion of the EPZ evacuation roadway network is located within 5 mil'e,s of Seabrook Station. Figure 22p'rese'Ats' the evacuation network with this general 5-mile radius stea. s 4.2 Characterizing the Evacuation Network ( After defining and mapping the Jinks and nodes ineluded in the evacuation roadway network, both physical',and operational characteristics of the system were inventoried. Using both field studies and available maps, tha geometric descriptions for each component of the network were compiled. The field data included the number of lanes, the lane widths, shoulder widths,distancestoobstructions, grade, cruise.sheeds.and other data necessary to calculate the traffic es5acity of each c link in the system. Link'len'gths were measured from available maps. Traffic capacity information for each intersection (or. node) in the network was'also collected. The data from these efforts were coded and keypunched for input to the NETVAC (EVAC)'model_., The model, in turn, prov,ided a listing of the evacuation roaaway network and its s characteristics. The network listing describes the geometric characteristics of each link in the network. The listing also describes the possible turning movements from each node and the traffic capacity of each link in the network (vehicles per hour that can be accommodated on each link during an evacuation). The listing of geometric characteristics and capacities is provided by the preprocessor for the NETVAC (EVAC) computer model prior to the actual evacuation simulation calculations, i The network listing for the Seabrook Station EPZ is attached as Appendix B to this report. 4-3

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r 5. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY i 5.1 Initial Alert and Notification The EPZ surrounding Seabrook Station will have an alerting and notification system which addresses the design guidelines of NUREG 0654/ FEMA-Rep. 1. This system will be used to alert the population and make them aware of an emergency condition and of the need to listen to emergency broadcast information for instructions. The exact message and procedures will be developed as part of-the emergency planning process. + If evacuation-is deemed necessary, the timing of the order to evacuate and notification measures will be contrclled by the State and local emergency preparedness officials. They may choose to' alert and mobilize an emergency response work force to control and expedite evacuation prior to the evacuation order. 5.2 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions It is assumed that no vehicles will begin to evacuate during the initial alert and notification period. Network- . loading distribution assumptions for the permanent population, transient population, and special facilities reflect the time required.to evacuate via private automobile, suosequent to initial alert and notification. Permanent Population It is obvious that-permanent residents with access to automobiles will tske varying amounts of time to begin. evacuating. 'Some persons would leave as quickly as they could; most would take some time to prepare,' pack valuables and 5-l' y w f -- 6

r clothes and then' depart; and some would take added time to secure homes and property before departing. In addition, ) actual departing and preparation times may varv according to the perceived severity of a particular evacuation order. For the purposes of simulating the vehicular evacuation, a constant vehicle loading rate of 20 vehicles per minute (1200 vehicles per hour) was useo at the various network entry nodes. Although not specifically declared, varying preparation and departure times are implied by this method. Use of this vehicle loading methodology was considered particularly appropriate for the Seabrock Station EPZ, due to the magnitude of vehicle demand and.the existing network capacity limitations. Transient Population (Seasonal and Work Force) It is assumed that preparation and departure times associated with all transient populations will be similar to those experienced by the permanent population. Accordingly, transient population vehicle demands were loaded onto the evacuation network at a constant rate of 20 vehicles per minute for summer weekend and off-season weekday conditions. However, a slightly different vehicle loading scenario was utilized for the major summer weekday employment areas. For the original NRC submission, a conservative vehicle loading rate of 20 vehicles per minute was used for all work force related entry nodes. Subsequent to this NRC submission, observations during summer weekday periods at major employment-5-2 ~ e y e

N

areas within the EPZ (notably Seabrook Station and the Seabrook Grehound Park) have indicated that vehicle exiting characteristics and access lane utilization warrant use of a vehicle loading rate of 40 vehicles per minute for certain areas. Accordingly, this higher vehicle loading rate was used for major employment areas within the EPZ for the summer weekday case.

5. 3 Evacuation Simulation Evacuations were simulated using the population and vehicle demand distribution data, evacuation network data, and evacuation preparation and departure time distribution assumptions discussed in previous sections.

The actual simulated evacuations were performed using the NETVAC (EVAC) computer program. The following describes the general structure of the model and three of its major features: the dynamic route selection, the priority treatment of flow at intersections not having traffic signals, and the roadway and intersection capacity calculations. l 5-3

General Structure NETVAC (EVAC) is organized in four basic units (procedures): the main program, the data procedure, the preprocessor, and the simulator. This section briefly expl.ains the functions of each of these units. The main program controls the entire execution. It starts by calling on the data procedure, which reads in the data ano the execution instructions, then calls in the preprocessor which perfor.ms some preliminary capacity calculations. Next, the main program controls the simulation itself and the reporting of the network conditions at specified intervals including the plotting. This program also controls the rest of the reports and the length of the simulation by terminating the program once the network is empty (or after a specified time). The data procedure reads in the network, the parameters and the options to be used in the run. This subroutine uses a special list processing technique to store the network; the link list is stored with both forward and backward pointers. In other words, all the links pointing into and out of any given node can be easily identified at any moment during the simulation. This list processing technique is one of the keys to the model's computational efficiency. On request, the data procedure performs a set of checks on the network to ensure connectivity and validity. It also performs a set of checks on the input data to identify coding errors. It is expected that tnese checks would be performed only once for each site studied. If errors are found, the routine keeps scanning the network until it has been completely checked and the run is then terminated. The date procedure also produces a set of warnings if unlikely (but possible) situations are encountered. The preprocessor procedure converts the physical description of each link into measures of capacity, speed and 5-4

density. For each specified type of link, the preprocessor computes two types of capacity: section cap'acity - which is the capacity along the e link regardless of downstream intersection restrictions; and e approach capacity - which is the capacity of the link to handle vehicles approaching the downstream intersection. Section capacities are associateo with highway sections whereas the traffic flow through intersections is controlled by i the approach capacity. NETVAC (EVAC) computes both capacities since they serve different purposes. The section capLcity serves as an upper bound on the flow that can move along a link, restricting the number of vehicles that will reach the intersection during a simulation interval and the number of vehicles that can be loaded onto a link from the intersection. The approach capacity, on the other hand, limits the number of cars that can actually move through the intersection. Vehicles that reach the intersection but cannot move through it are assigned to a queue. The NETVAC (EVAC) simulator includes two separate procedures, the link pass and the node pass. The link pass handles the flow on the links while the node pass handles the transfer of flow from link to link. Dynamic Route Selection NETVAC (EVAC) does not use a pre-specified set of turning movements at each litersection; instead, the turning movements l are determined at each simulation interval as a function of the changing traffic conditions and directionality of the links. Drivers approaching an intersection are assumed to make a choice of outbound (away from the intersection) links based on 5-5 L

- ~ ~. how fast this outbound link can get them to safety. This, in turn, is a function of the direction of the outbound links (away from the nuclear plant or hazard area) and the traffic conditions on the outbcund links. The route selection procedure used in NETVAC (EVAC) reflects the two above-mentioned choice criteria through a user-supplied " preference factor" which is specified for each link and the speeds on each of the outbound links, in order to facilitate the explanation of the route choice mechanism, let PF) denote the preference factor for the j-th outbound link at some intersection. In other words, the relative 'a priori' preference of link j is PF) [ kPFk where the sum goes over all the links (k's) emanating out of the node under consideration (including j). The choice probability, or the share of drivers choosing an outbound link j out of a given intersection at (simulated) time t, P (t), is determined as a j function of the preference factors and the speeds on all the outbound links as: PF x U (t) P)(t) 3 3 = PF x U (t) k k k where U)(t) is the speed on link j at time t. It should be noted that driver behavior during an evacuation is assumed to be myopic in that only information regarding the immediate outbound links at eacn intersection is assumed to influence route choice decisions. Also note that the P)(t)'s are computed for each incoming link separately due to turning prohibitions from some links into some other links (a reference to the incoming link was omitted from the notation of the choice probability for clarity of exposition). f ' 5-6 ~-e-+, ewe w e -v-,----s -e,----g-ew , s-w r ---e r,- +---,--emy-- -,er,

The Priority Treatment Even under evacuation conditions, it can be expected that traffic approaching an intersection without traffic signals from certain links would have the right of way over incoming traffic from lower priority approaches. Since it is'not clear that such priority would correspond to the existing intersection controls, the input to NETVAC (EVAC) includes a user-specified link priority parameter. This is a binary parameter indicating primary or secondary priority of a link. The volume of vehicles being processed (at every intersection and at each simulation interval) and transferrsd from inbound to outbound links'is subject to several constraints which determine the effective, capacity of the intersection. During the simulation, traffic coming in from all primary priority links is assigned to the intersection first, subject only to the intersection capacity constraints. Lower priority traffic, on the other hano, is restricted by both the capacity of the intersection and the effect of the higher priority traffic. The capacity of the secondary priority approaches is a function of the gap acceptance behavior of the minor approach drivers and the headway distribution in the primary approaches' flow. In order to model the capacity of secondary priority approaches, a copacity allocation problem procedure is utilized. The secondary priority approaches emit traffic only under one of the following conditions: first, if there is residual intersection capacity from the primary priority traffic, flow can be emitted into the intersection from the secondary priority road subject to the residual capacity constraint. Second, if the residual capacity is zero, NETVAC provides some small capacity for the lower priority approaches to allow for " sneak-in" effects. 5-7

en. Note that the priority treatment applies only to intersections without traffic signals and that both types of I approaches (primary and secondary priority) are treated j identically in the model in all respects except for the added constraint on the flow from secondary priority approaches.' Capacity Calculations The capacity of a transportation facility is the maximum flow that can go through the facility. NETVAC (EVAC) deterinines capacity in two stages: first, the preprocessor assigns a section capacity and an approach capacity to each link in the network. Second, approach capacities are updated continuously, throughout the simulation as changing turning movements affect the maximum volume of traffic processed along each link into its downstream intersection. The capacity calculations are based on the Highway Research Board's Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). Following this reference, the section capacity is calculated in the preprocessor for links with and without physical separation between opposing directions while the approach capacity is calculated as a function of the physical conditions (width, parking, turning pockets, etc.), environmental conditions (area type, peak hour and load factors), traffic characteristics (traffic mix and percentage of turning movements), and approach type. As mentioned before, the approach capacities calculated in the preprocessor are not the actual bounds on the flow. NETVAC adjusts the approach capacity continuously in order to reflect the changing vehicular turning movements resulting from the dynamic route selection. The capacity of the 1-th approach coming into an intersection at simulation interval t, C (t) is given by: g C (t) = C x AL(t) x AR(t) g 1 5-8

where C is the standard capacity of link i calculated by the y preprocessor and AL(t) and AR(t) are the correction factors for left and right turning, movements, respectively. These correction factors are a function of the percent of turning traffic, the approach width, and parking allowance, as suggested by the HCM. These factors do not apply when the turning traffic is using special turning lanes or turning pockets. 5.4 Conditions Modeled Evacuation time analyses were made for three time periods for each case described in Section 3. Each case was analyzed for peak summer weekend, peak summer weekday, and off-season weekday periods. The following assumptions related to population estimates were maoe for each time period: Peak Summer Weekend At least one family member in e'ach permanent e I residence, e Recreationa_1 and seasonal facilities at estimated capacity. Peak Summer Weekday e One or more family member in each residence, e Selected places of work staffed, o Recreational and seasonal facilities at estimated peak weekoay levels. l 5-9 j

Off-Season Weekday l o One or more' family member in each residence, l o Selected places of work staffed, l } o Recreational and seasonal facilities at reduced levels of use or not in use. The peak summer weekend and off-season weekday conditions were also considered under adverse weather conditions. A 30% reduction in roadway capacity was assumed for both of these adverse weather cases. ) l l 9 e " 10

I 6. ESTIMATES OF EVACUATION TIMES An analysis has been performed to estimate the time that might elapse for comple'ing a public evacuation of each of the t sector configurations shown in Figures 9 through 18. These times are from the start of the evacuation to the point when evacuation of the last eutomobile has been completed. Additional time for notification, evacuation of special facilities and persons with special needs, and for confirmation that an evacuation has been completed is_not included in the estimates provided. These considerations will be developed in detail as the arrangements for Seabrook Station are established. Clear time estimates for each evacuation analysis case are presented in Table 4. A summary of the simulated evacuations for each of the analysis cases follows. 0 Case 1: 180 North, O to 2 Miles Evacuation under Case 1, which includes Hampton Falls and Hampton, could be completed between 2 hrs, 30 mins. for the off-season, weekday (fair weather) condition and 4 hrs., 20 mins. for the summer weekitnd (fair weather) condition. The estimated evacuation time for the summer weekday is five minutes longer than the off-season weekday fair weather and adverse weather conditions, and I hour, 45 minutes less than the summer weekend condition for the same evacuation' case. The reduced seasonal transient population for the summer weekday condition (compared to the summer weekend condition) results in the significantly reduced evacuation time. Although the total vehicle demand for the summer weekday condition is slightly higher than the off-season weekday condition, use of the observed summer weekday vehicle loading rates for major employment centers within the EPZ results in similar evacuation clear times for this case (i.e., 2 hrs., 35 mins. for the . summer weekday, fair weather condition vs. 2 hrs., 30 mins for the off-season weekday, fair and adverse weather conditions). 6-1

TABLE 4 ESTIMATES OF EVACUATION CLEAR TIMES BY EPZ ANALYSIS AREAS (Hours / Minutes) Summer Summer Off-Season Off-Season ilcekend Weekday Weekday Weekday Fair Weather Fair Weather Fair Weather Adverse Weather Hrs. Min. Hrs. Min. Hrs. Min. Hrs. Min. 1. 1800 North 0 to 2 miles 4 20 2 35 2 30 2 30 2. 1800 South, 0'to 2 miles 3 10 2 40 2 50 2 50 3. 900 Northeast, O to 5 miles 4 20 3 10 1 50 2 00 4. 900 Southeast, O to 5 miles 3 50 2 45 3 00 3 00 5. 900 Southwest, O to 5 miles 3 40 2 05 3 10 3 10 6. 900 Northwest, O to 5 miles 3 20 2 10 3 00 3 00 7. 900 Northeast, O to 10 miles 4 30 3 40 2 00 2 50 8. 900 Southeast, O to 10 miles 3 50 3 45 3 00 4 10 9. 900 Southwest, O to 10 miles 3 45 2 20 3 10 3 20 10. 900 Northwest, O to 10 miles 3 40 2 '20 3 00 3 10

11. 3600, O to 2 miles 4

50 3 40 ,1 12. 3600,'0 to 5 miles 5 50 4 00 i

13. -Entire EPZ

'6 05 4 10 14 Entire.EPZ for Peak Summer Weekend, Adverse Weather Case: 9 hrs. 15 min. 6-2

)

0 Case 2: 180 South. O to 2 Miles Evacuation times for Case 2 (evacuation of Seabrook) range from 2 hrs., 40 mins for the summer weekday, fair weather condition to 3 hrs., 10 mins. for the summer weekend condition. The relationship between the summer weekday and off-season weekday evacuation times is similar to that identified for Cace 1. Namely, although summer weekday vehicle demands are higher than off-season weekday oemands, use of the observed summer weekday vehicle loading rates for this condition result in total evacuation times similar to the off-season weekday conditions. Since, vehicle demands associated with the off-season weekday condition are less than the available evacuation network capacity, a reduction in capacity for the adverse weather condition does not effect the total evacuation clear time for this case. i 0 l _ Case 3: 90 Northeast, O to 5 Miles l Case 3 (evacuation of North Hampton, Hampton, and Hampton Falls east of I-95) evacuation times vary between 1 hr., 50 mins. for the off-season weekday, fair weather condition to 4 hrs., 20 mins. for the cummer weekend condition. Evacuation clear time estimates for the summer weekday condition fall between those estimated for the summer weekend and off-season weekday condtions. Compared to the summer weekend condition, vehicle demands associated with the summer weekdey work force are increased and those associated with seasonal transients are decreased. These summer weekday estimates were also developed using the observed summer weekday vehicle loading rates. For Case 3, the reduction in roadway capacity for the off-season weekday adverse weather situation results in a l 10-minute increase in evacuation time over the comparable fair I weather condition. 6-3 l .\\

0 Case 4: 90 Southeast, O to 5 Miles Evacuation time estimates for Case 4 (evacuation of Seabrook and Salisbury) range from 2 hrs., 45 mins. for the summer weekday,. fair weather condition to 3 hrs., 50 mins. for the summer weekend condition. Use of observed summer weekday vehicle loading rates for major employment areas result in a slightly lower evacuation time for this condition, compared to the off-season weekday conditions. The reduction in roadway capacity for the off-season weekday, adverse weather condition has no appreciable effect on evacuaiton times, compared to the i ) off-season weekday, fair weather condition. Case 5: 90 Southwest, O to 5 Hiles 0 Evacuation times for the Case 5 evacuation (evacuation of South Hampton, Amesbury, and western portions of Salisbury and Seabrook) are estimated to fall between 2 hrs., 5 mins. for summer weekdays and 3 hrs., 40 mins for summer weekends. Again, weekday estimates for summer periods are estimated to be lower than those for off-season weekday periods, due to observed summer weekday vehicle loading rates for major employment areas within the EPZ. Off-season weekday. fair and adverse weather estimates are identical, since sufficient roadway capacity is avajlable under both conditions, to adequately service anticipated vehicle demands. 0 Case 6: 90 Northwest, O to 5 Miles The Case 6 (evacuation of Hampton Falls and Kensington) evacuation resulted in clear times between 2 hrs., 10 mins, for the summer weekday condition and 3 hrs., 20 mins. for summer weekends. Use of the observed summer weekday vehicle loading rates _for major employment areas, resulted in summer weekday estimates. lower than those associated with off-season 4 6-4

j. caekdcys. Tha-off-season waskdey fair and adverse weather conditions result in the same evacuation times for this case, due to the fact that transportation deficiencies are not significant during the' adverse weather condition for Case 6. j i 0 ~ Case 7: 90 Northeast, O to 10 Miles Evacuation under Case 7 (evacuation of North,Hampton, Hampton, Hampton Falls east of 1-95, and portions of Greenland and Rye within the 10-mile radius) would.take between 2 hrs. for the off-season weekday, fair weather condition and 4 hrs., 30 mins. for the summer weekend condition. The high summer, seasonal transient population for this case, even for weekday periods, results in summer weekday evacuation estimates significantly higher than those for off-season weekdays. 0 The permanent and work force populations in this 90 1 northeast sector, however, are low, resulting in off-season, l weekday evaucation estimates of only 2 hrs. A reduction in l roadway capacity of 30%, increases the evacuation time for the off-season, weekday adverse weather condition by 50 minutes, to j 2 hrs., 50 mins. i 0 Case 8: 90 Southeast, O to 10 Miles 1 Case 8 (evacuaticn of Seabrook, Salisbury, Newburyport ano Newbury) evacuation times range from 3 hrs. for the off-season-weekday, fair weather condition to 4 hrs., 10 mins. for the l -off-season weekday, adverse weather condition. Th2 30% reduction in roadway capacity for the off-season weekday, adverse weather situation has a significant effect on evacuation times, compared to comparable fair weather c,onditions. In fact,'this moverse weather condition results in higher evacuation times than those estimated for summer weekends. l l l 6.-

0 Case 9: 90 Southwest, O to 10 Miles Evacuation under Case 9 (evacuation of South Hampton, Amesbury, Merrimac, West Newbury, and portions of Newton and Seabrook) is estimated to take between 2 hrs., 20 mins. for.the summer weekday condition and 3 hrs., 45 mins. for summer weekends. As with Case 5, weekoay estimates for summer periods are anticipated to be lower than those for off-se6 son weekday periods, due to observed summer weekday vehicle loading rates for major employment areas within the EPZ. There is only a slight difference in estimated evacuation times for the off-season weekday fair and adverse weather conditions, indicating that anticipated demands are not significantly affected by transportation deficiencies under this Case. 0 Case 10: 90 Northwest, O to 10 Miles Evacuation time estimates for Case 10 (evacuation of Seabrook, Hampton Falls, Kensington, South Hampton and portions of Newton, Exeter, Stratham and Seabrook) vary between 2 hrs., 20 mins. for summer weekdays and 3 hrs., 40 mins for summer weekend conditions. Case 10 is similar to Case 6, which resulted in summer weekday estimates lower than those associated with off-season weekdays due to the use of observed vehicle loading rates for major employment areas for summer weekday conditions. The reduction in roadway capacity under ennditions of adverse weather does not have a significant effect upor. off-season weekday clear time estimates under Case 10. i 0 Case 11: 360, O to 2 Miles; Case 12: 3600, O to 5 Miles; and Case 13: Evacuation of the Entire EPZ Cases 11, 12, and 13 involved 360" evacuations for 2, 5-and 10-mile radial areas, respectively. Case 11 includes evacuation of the Town of Hampton Falls, Hampton and Seabrook. l l 6-6

Evacuation clear time estimates range from 3 hrs., 40 mins. for summer weekday, f air weather conditions to 4 hrs., 50 mins. for summer weekend conditions. Case 12 involves the evacuation of North Hampton, Hampton, Hampton Falls, Seabrook, Salisbury, South Hampton, Amesbury and Kensington. These evacuation time estimates vary between 4 hrs. for summer weekday, f air weather conditions to 5 hrs., 50 mins. for summer weekend situations. Evacuation time estimates for Case 13, which is an evacuation of the entire EPZ, range from 4 hrs., 10 mins. for summer weekday, f air weather weekdays to 6 hrs., 5 mins. for summer weekend periods. Case 14: Evacuation of the EPZ Under Peak Summer Weekend, Adverse Weather Conditions Case 14 involves evacuation of the entire EPZ, for the peak summer weekend, adverse weather condition. This represents the same geographical area and population as Case 13. The evacuation time estimates fLr the entire EPZ under this case is 9 hrs., 15 mins. This time reflects an extremely conservative estimate since the occurrence of a sudden rainstorm during a peak summer weekend period is considered unlikely. O d 6-7

7. SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATIONS Some indication about institutional evacuation can be gained from contact that has been made for two specific facilities and.some comparison analysis offered by the Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency. The' Seacoast Health Center, located between three and four miles NNE from the site, is an intermediate care facility with a 76 bed capacity. It currently has an emergency plan and will have a radiological spcific annex to include with the Town of Hampton plan. According to the Center's administrator, the estimated time to evacuate the facility in a situation where the area is evacuating is two to three hours. This facility experienced an actual evacuation of all its residents recently. The situation arose without prior warning at night while the residents were in bed. Upon notice, thirty minutes were taken to call emergency personnel, open a reception center, call ambulances (12) and a bus, and evaluate the situation. When the order to evacuate was given, it took 29 minutes to transfer all the' patients to the reception center; 30% by bus and the remainder in ambulances. The Exeter Hospital, located between seven and eight miles NW of the site, is a major care facility with a 100 bed capacity. It currently has an emergency plan and will have a radiological specific annex to include with the Town of Exeter plan. According to the Hospital's administrator, the estimateo time to evacuate the facility in a situation where the are is evacuating is six to eight hours. Additional information on the question of institutional evacuations is given in the letter from the Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency, included in Appendix C. 1 7-1 i L

1 APPENDIX A PERMANENT POPULATION ROSE; AUTOMOBILE DEMAND ESTIMATES ASSOCIATED WITH PERMANENT AND DA'ILY TRANSIENT PCOULATION COMPONENTS (Summer and Off-Season Estimates) l f N,, -n

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lose leased spacee TOTAL : 17 u?

FIGURE A-3 ESTIMATE OF BEACH AREA LOTS AND ON-STREET PARKING 1

N \\ uns N"' \\ \\ ~ \\ \\ D \\ \\ EME \\/ I l l sA 1 34 Wwk se sk 7 l E e sw wg 'o \\ \\ b \\ nsa m \\Q S TOTAL: 5077 FIGURE A-4 VEPICLE DEMAND ESTIMATES FOR.SEABROO.K GREYHOUND RACING PARK AND SEABROOK STATION

1 4 N i est 14e 144 792 W98W 111 E80E 184 34 SS 43 Wa=i l

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t-E 37 ) .\\ , E.. 17 50 See 530 1 E I S l t FIGURE A-5 ESTIMATED ROUTE 1 VEHICLE DEMAND MAJOR PARKING LOTS

3 M NE 2 g 1 2 I e 3 't 2 e 4 g 3 1 i. G'/. = ENE 3 Se e 1 1 g i s i 1 ,. y w E I w wt *,=p,2,'~,=,'~,=~,'t 1 l,e

== 1 34 ( {- j h 3 1 e i i I 1 22 0 8 1 9 1 3 9 O 1 i e ESE i 4 1 26 i \\- j e se 21 se s I 1 1 e 1 e s "E S a TOTAL: 5 75 FIGURE A-6 ESTIMATE OF OFF-SEASON SEASONAL RESIDENT VEHICLE DEMAND (Assumes 10% of Total Seasonal Units 1 1 Vehicle per -Seasonal Unit) 4 6

i L N K N NME ? \\ \\ l = \\ \\ } so E WNW I '\\u 75 ga ~ { [ m 31: my h E Sh ' s WS ' e s 4 m 1 \\ h / s un

sw 3

\\~ N 11 \\. \\ SW 7 E 7- \\ k sn a f S f wrai.: s== ~ FIGURE A-7 p ESTIMATED OFF-SEASON VEHICLE DEMAND - OVERNIGHT ACCnMMODATIONS i (1 Vehicle / Unit) 5.

N 74 ww \\ l \\ l \\ / \\ ins 40 WNW \\== / / tur ,\\~ 1 WS

p
Th a 3.g,g l

E s 4 i I .. "a A 1 i j / t i i i g 1s-ins i.e I \\ fs4 k .on '"' I \\ \\ su 72 g \\ \\ = S TOTAL: 7s77 FIGURE A-8 ESTIMATE OF VENICLE DEMAND ASSOCI ATED WITH-i MAJOR MANUFACTURING EMPLOYERS

a n 2 9 APPENDIX B NETWORK LISTING 1 5iY'E + n

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T APPENDIX C COMMENTS BY THE MASSACHUSETTS CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCY O I

f _ _. _ . mME"E t THE COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENT ] CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCY AND OFFBCE OF EM ERGENCY pmEPAREDNE.58 400 WORCESTER ROAD FR AMINGM AM. M Ass. 01708 EDWARD J. KING August 4, 1980 PAUL J. CAHilt GoVERNon DIRE CToR Mr. James Mcdonald Yankee Atomic Electric Company 20 Turnpike Road Westborough, Massachusetts 01581

Dear Mr. Mcdonald:

Please accept this letter as the official cor=:entary of the Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency on Yankee Atomic's submission to the Nuclear Regulatory Com-n:ission entitled: Preliminarv Evacuation Clear Time Esti-mates for Areas Near Seabrook Station. 1. Evacuation Time Estimates The calculated evacuation time esticates are consistent with MCDA's estimates, which were based upon experience, and upon some basic load-loading analyses using techni-ques developed in the context of the TEMA Crisis Reloca-tion Planning Program. More i=portantly, MCDA is f amiliar with the methodology used in generating the estinates, and with the EVAC model, from experience with work done in the Pilgrim NPS area. The Pilgrim area results have generated a high degree of confidence in both the EVAC model and in HMM's personnel. Because planning for the Seabrook NPS is in a prototypical stage, the esticates will be very useful in the route design and traf fic management co=ponents of the actual evacuation plans, which will be developed over tiie coming months. 5 ecial Facilities 2. 2 There are a nutber of similarities in demography, topography, and physical infrastructure between the Seabrook and Pilgrim NPS sites. Experience in planning for the Pilgrim site in-dicates that while specialized planning is critical for safe efficient evacuation of the school population, once these plans are in place, the schools can be readily evacuated in an orderly canner. In no case should evacuation of the school population exceed time estimates for the population in general.

F: 2-August 4,1980 Mr. James Mcdonald There are sixteen hospitals and nursing hones in the Seabrook area in Massachusetts. Again, Pilgrim planning experience indicates that specialized plans for each such i facility are needed. MCDA officials, and local officials queried to date generally feel that the nursing homes could be evacuated within the time estimates. Work with Jordan Hospital in Plymouth inideates that total evacuation of the three hospitals (Anna Jaques Hospital in Newburyport, 6 miles south, Newburyport Manor Chronic Hospital, 6 miles south, and Amesbury Hospital 5 rdles southwest) could require more than the time estimated for the general population. The critical co=ponent here is in provision of life sustaining equipment while transporting patients from post-surgical, coronary care, and similar units, and in making the necessary decisions to proceed with evacuation of such patients. (There is a lack of guidance in this area, from NRC and from NIH.) 3. Confir=ation of Evacuation MCDA plans to provide for confirmation of evacuation through the use of local law enforcement officials, travelling pre-assigned routes. This is the only mechanism found effective in evacuation for other purposes. Alternative suggestions seem to present more shortco=ings than they resolve. Assign-ment of 35-45 minute confirnation times are reasonable, although it is important et note that, confirmation of evacuation would begin, and proceed, throughout the projected evacuation time period. 4. Notification Times Notification time estimates (35 minutes good weather, 45 minutes 3 bad weather) appropriately reflect MCDA estimates of the time necessary to co=plete notification to 100% of the public within 5 miles, and 90% of the public within ten miles, using. existing local capabilities. Addition of this notification time to co=puted evacuation times ~ in all cases yields a conservative result. The reason for this is that a majority of residents within either 5 or 10 rdles would receive notification within 15 minutes, at which time any recommended evacuation would begin. To the extent that route capacities constrain evacuation times, simple addition of the notification tire ~is a conservative approach. The State, local governments, and the utility have been working on vario6s " pro =pt alert" mechaniscs, and timely compliance with any future Tederal regulations involving " prompt alert" provisions can be assured. The amterial in the proposed submission will prove a useful tool in deterrdning the appropriateness of various protective e

"e

=..m ,m e ,e e ee emmum e m.r w w w.. ..w.

/ Mr. Jame:s Mcdonald August 4, 1980 / actions in the event of an accident. MCDA will incorporate the results in the Massachusetts radiological emergency response plan, af ter Federal officials have had an opportunity to review them. The results will be made available to local emergency response officials. i J Sincerely, ~ m Y,, ~~ \\ Paul J. Cahill Director J I i -T - - ~ ~

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