ML12355A711

Final Report Kld TR-488, Revision 1, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Chapter 5, Estimation of Trip Generation Time

ML12355A711
Person / Time
Site:	Cook
Issue date:	11/30/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, American Electric Power
References
AEP-NRC-2012-78 KLD TR-488, Rev. 1
Download: ML12355A711 (95)

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5 ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME Federal Government guidelines (see NUREG CR-7002) specify that the planner estimate the distributions of elapsed times associated with mobilization activities undertaken by the public to prepare for the evacuation trip. The elapsed time associated with each activity is represented as a statistical distribution reflecting differences between members of the public.The quantification of these activity-based distributions relies largely on the results of the telephone survey. We define the sum of these distributions of elapsed times as the Trip Generation Time Distribution.

5.1 Background

In general, an accident at a nuclear power plant is characterized by the following Emergency Classification Levels (see Appendix 1 of NUREG 0654 for details): 1. Unusual Event 2. Alert 3. Site Area Emergency 4. General Emergency At each level, the Federal guidelines specify a set of Actions to be undertaken by the Licensee, and by State and Local offsite authorities.

As a Planning Basis. we will adopt a conservative posture, in accordance with Section 1.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, that a rapidly escalating accident will be considered in calculating the Trip Generation Time. We will assume: 1. The Advisory to Evacuate will be announced coincident with the siren notification.

2. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after the siren notification.

3. ETE are measured relative to the Advisory to Evacuate.We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events will occur within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are necessary in order to: 1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the format recommended in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863.

2. Identify temporal points of reference that uniquely define "Clear Time" and ETE.It is likely that a longer time will elapse between the various classes of an emergency.

For example, suppose one hour elapses from the siren alert to the Advisory to Evacuate.

In this case, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation by the public during this one-hour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when the Advisory to Evacuate is announced, than at the time of the siren alert. In addition, many will engage in preparation activities to evacuate, in anticipation that an Advisory will be broadcast.

Thus, the time needed to complete the mobilization activities and the number of people remaining to evacuate the EPZ after the Advisory to Evacuate, will both be somewhat less than Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 5-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 the estimates presented in this report. Consequently, the ETE presented in this report are higher than the actual evacuation time, if this hypothetical situation were to take place.The notification process consists of two events: 1. Transmitting information using the alert notification systems available within the EPZ (e.g. sirens, tone alerts, EAS broadcasts, and loud speakers).

2. Receiving and correctly interpreting the information that is transmitted.

The population within the EPZ is dispersed over an area of approximately 190 square miles and is engaged in a wide variety of activities.

It must be anticipated that some time will elapse between the transmission and receipt of the information advising the public of an accident.The amount of elapsed time will vary from one individual to the next depending on where that person is, what that person is doing, and related factors. Furthermore, some persons who will be directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time the emergency is declared.

These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers who reside within the EPZ and who will return to join the other household members upon receiving notification of an emergency.

As indicated in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863, the estimated elapsed times for the receipt of notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times for different people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time distributions, it is also possible to distinguish between different population groups and different day-of-week and time-of-day scenarios, so that accurate ETE may be computed.For example, people at home or at work within the EPZ will be notified by siren, and/or tone alert and/or radio (if available).

Those well outside the EPZ will be notified by telephone, radio, TV and word-of-mouth, with potentially longer time lags. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day -families will be united in the evenings, but dispersed during the day. In this respect, weekends will differ from weekdays.As indicated in Section 4.1 of NUREG/CR-7002, the information required to compute trip generation times is typically obtained from a telephone survey of EPZ residents.

Such a survey was conducted in support of this ETE study. Appendix F presents the survey sampling plan, survey instrument, and raw survey results. It is important to note that the shape and duration of the evacuation trip mobilization distribution is important at sites where traffic congestion is not expected to cause the evacuation time estimate to extend in time well beyond the trip generation period. The remaining discussion will focus on the application of the trip generation data obtained from the telephone survey to the development of the ETE documented in this report.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 5-2 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

5.2 Fundamental

Considerations The environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation trips consists of a sequence of events and activities.

Each event (other than the first) occurs at an instant in time and is the outcome of an activity.Activities are undertaken over a period of time. Activities may be in "series" (i.e. to undertake an activity implies the completion of all preceding events) or may be in parallel (two or more activities may take place over the same period of time). Activities conducted in series are functionally dependent on the completion of prior activities; activities conducted in parallel are functionally independent of one another. The relevant events associated with the public's preparation for evacuation are: Event Number 1 2 3 4 5 Event Description Notification Awareness of Situation Depart Work Arrive Home Depart on Evacuation Trip Associated with each sequence of events are one or more activities, as outlined below: Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities C S s 1-->2 Receive Notification 1 2-) 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2 2,3 --4 Travel Home 3 2,4 --5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate 4 N/A Snow Clearance 5 These relationships are shown graphically in Figure 5-1.* An Event is a 'state' that exists at a point in time (e.g., depart work, arrive home)* An Activity is a 'process' that takes place over some elapsed time (e.g., prepare to leave work, travel home)As such, a completed Activity changes the 'state' of an individual (e.g. the activity, 'travel home'changes the state from 'depart work' to 'arrive home'). Therefore, an Activity can be described as an 'Event Sequence';

the elapsed times to perform an event sequence vary from one person to the next and are described as statistical distributions on the following pages.An employee who lives outside the EPZ will follow sequence (c) of Figure 5-1. A household Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 within the EPZ that has one or more commuters at work, and will await their return before beginning the evacuation trip will follow the first sequence of Figure 5-1(a). A household within the EPZ that has no commuters at work, or that will not await the return of any commuters, will follow the second sequence of Figure 5-1(a), regardless of day of week or time of day.Households with no commuters on weekends or in the evening/night-time will follow the applicable sequence in Figure 5-1(b). Transients will always follow one of the sequences of Figure 5-1(b). Some transients away from their residence could elect to evacuate immediately without returning to the residence, as indicated in the second sequence.It is seen from Figure 5-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e. the total elapsed time from Event 1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next.Furthermore, Event 5 depends, in a complicated way, on the time distributions of all activities preceding that event. That is, to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must obtain estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. For this study, we adopt the conservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence.In some cases, assuming certain events occur strictly sequential (for instance, commuter returning home before beginning preparation to leave, or removing snow only after the preparation to leave) can result in rather conservative (that is, longer) estimates of mobilization times. It is reasonable to expect that at least some parts of these events will overlap for many households, but that assumption is not made in this study.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 5-4 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 1 2 3 4 5 Residents Residents W MW w* Households wait for Commuters' Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters 1 2 5 Residents, 1 2 4 5 Transients away from Residence Return to residence, then evacuate Residents, Transients at Residence 1 2 5 Residents at home;transients evacuate directly 1 2 3,5 ACTIVITIES EVENTS 1 -p. 2 Receive Notification 2 P 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 , 4 Travel Home 2, 4 .10 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time 1. Notification

2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 I

5.3 Estimated

Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5 The time distribution of an event is obtained by "summing" the time distributions of all prior contributing activities. (This "summing" process is quite different than an algebraic sum since it is performed on distributions

-not scalar numbers).Time Distribution No. 1, Notification Process: Activity I -> 2 In accordance with the 2012 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual, 100% of the population is notified within 45 minutes. It is assumed (based on the presence of sirens within the EPZ) that 87 percent of those within the EPZ will be aware of the accident within 30 minutes with the remainder notified within the following 15 minutes. The notification distribution is given below: Table 5-2. Time Distribution for Notifying the Public Elase Tim Pecn of (Mintes Pouato Noife 0 0%5 7%10 13%15 27%20 47%25 66%30 87%35 92%40 97%45 100%Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Distribution No. 2, Prepare to Leave Work: Activity 2 -- 3 It is reasonable to expect that the vast majority of business enterprises within the EPZ will elect to shut down following notification and most employees would leave work quickly. Commuters, who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly since facilities outside the EPZ would remain open and other personnel would remain. Personnel or farmers responsible for equipment/livestock would require additional time to secure their facility.

The distribution of Activity 2 -- 3 shown in Table 5-3 reflects data obtained by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2.Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave Work 0 0% 35 96%5 44% 40 97%10 62% 45 97%15 74% 50 97%20 83% 55 97%25 86% 60 100%30 95%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response.

That is, the sample was reduced in size to include only those households who responded to this question.

The underlying assumption is that the distribution of this activity for the "Don't know" responders, if the event takes place, would be the same as those responders who provided estimates.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Distribution No. 3. Travel Home: Activity 3 --+ 4 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-4.Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Commuters to Travel Home 5 20% 40 98%10 47% 45 98%15 66% 50 98%20 80% 55 98%25 84% 60 100%30 93%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I I Distribution No. 4, Prepare to Leave Home: Activity 2, 4 --> 5 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-5.Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Evacuate 0 0%15 16%30 52%45 59%60 75%75 87%90 89%105 89%120 94%135 97%150 97%165 97%180 100%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Distribution No. 5, Snow Clearance Time Distribution Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated with snow clearance.

It is assumed that snow equipment is mobilized and deployed during the snowfall to maintain passable roads. The general consensus is that the snow-plowing efforts are generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snow accumulation exceeds that of snow clearance over a period of many hours.Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway system will remain passable -albeit at a lower capacity -under the vast majority of snow conditions.

Nevertheless, for the vehicles to gain access to the highway system, it may be necessary for driveways and employee parking lots to be cleared to the extent needed to permit vehicles to gain access to the roadways.These clearance activities take time; this time must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions.

These data are provided by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-6.Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6"-8" of Snow Cuuatv 0P.ren Elaped Tme ompltin 0 56%15 65%30 81%45 88%60 93%75 95%90 96%105 96%120 98%135 99%150 99%165 99%180 100%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Mobilization Activities 100%80%0A 0 0 4-1 C 60%40%00i-Notification

-Prepare to Leave Work-Travel Home-Prepare Home-Time to Clear Snow 20%0%0 30 60 90 120 Elapsed Time from Start of Mobilization Activity (min)150 180 Figure 5-2. Evacuation Mobilization Activities Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1

5.4 Calculation

of Trip Generation Time Distribution The time distributions for each of the mobilization activities presented herein must be combined to form the appropriate Trip Generation Distributions.

As discussed above, this study assumes that the stated events take place in sequence such that all preceding events must be completed before the current event can occur. For example, if a household awaits the return of a commuter, the work-to-home trip (Activity 3 -> 4) must precede Activity 4 -* 5.To calculate the time distribution of an event that is dependent on two sequential activities, it is necessary to "sum" the distributions associated with these prior activities.

The distribution summing algorithm is applied repeatedly as shown to form the required distribution.

As an outcome of this procedure, new time distributions are formed; we assign "letter" designations to these intermediate distributions to describe the procedure.

Table 5-7 presents the summing procedure to arrive at each designated distribution.

Table 5-7. Mapping Distributions to Events Applyr"ummiong" A r To Distribution ae Event Distributions 1 and 2 Distribution A Event 3 Distributions A and 3 Distribution B Event 4 Distributions B and 4 Distribution C Event 5 Distributions 1 and 4 Distribution D Event 5 Distributions C and 5 Distribution E Event 5 Distributions D and 5 Distribution F Event 5 Table 5-8 presents a description of each of the final trip generation distributions achieved after the summing process is completed.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 5-12 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions Disrbto Description Time distribution of commuters departing place of work (Event 3). Also applies A to employees who work within the EPZ who live outside, and to Transients within the EPZ.B Time distribution of commuters arriving home (Event 4).Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).D Time distribution of residents without commuters returning home, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).E Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).Time distribution of residents with no commuters returning home, leaving to begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).5.4.1 Statistical Outliers As already mentioned, some portion of the survey respondents answer "don't know" to some questions or choose to not respond to a question.

The mobilization activity distributions are based upon actual responses.

But, it is the nature of surveys that a few numeric responses are inconsistent with the overall pattern of results. An example would be a case in which for 540 responses, almost all of them estimate less than two hours for a given answer, but 3 say "four hours" and 4 say "six or more hours".These "outliers" must be considered:

are they valid responses, or so atypical that they should be dropped from the sample?In assessing outliers, there are three alternates to consider: 1) Some responses with very long times may be valid, but reflect the reality that the respondent really needs to be classified in a different population subgroup, based upon special needs;2) Other responses may be unrealistic (6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> to return home from commuting distance, or 2 days to prepare the home for departure);

3) Some high values are representative and plausible, and one must not cut them as part of the consideration of outliers.The issue of course is how to make the decision that a given response or set of responses are to be considered "outliers" for the component mobilization activities, using a method that objectively quantifies the process.There is considerable statistical literature on the identification and treatment of outliers singly or in groups, much of which assumes the data is normally distributed and some of which uses non-Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 5-13 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 parametric methods to avoid that assumption.

The literature cites that limited work has been done directly on outliers in sample survey responses.

In establishing the overall mobilization time/trip generation distributions, the following principles are used: 1) It is recognized that the overall trip generation distributions are conservative estimates, because they assume a household will do the mobilization activities sequentially, with no overlap of activities;

2) The individual mobilization activities (prepare to leave work, travel home, prepare home, clear snow are reviewed for outliers, and then the overall trip generation distributions are created (see Figure 5-1, Table 5-7, Table 5-8);3) Outliers can be eliminated either because the response reflects a special population (e.g.special needs, transit dependent) or lack of realism, because the purpose is to estimate trip generation patterns for personal vehicles;4) To eliminate outliers, a) the mean and standard deviation of the specific activity are estimated from the responses, b) the median of the same data is estimated, with its position relative to the mean noted, c) the histogram of the data is inspected, and d) all values greater than 3.5 standard deviations are flagged for attention, taking special note of whether there are gaps (categories with zero entries) in the histogram display.In general, only flagged values more than 4 standard deviations from the mean are allowed to be considered outliers, with gaps in the histogram expected.When flagged values are classified as outliers and dropped, steps "a" to "d" are repeated.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 5-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

5) As a practical matter, even with outliers eliminated by the above, the resultant histogram, viewed as a cumulative distribution, is not a normal distribution.

A typical situation that results is shown below in Figure 5-3.100.0%90.0%90.0%80.0% 4.70.0%4 0 Z 60.0%50.0%2 40.0% -/4.30.0% .E u 20.0%10.0%ui Iq LI U) U. U. L n If U) Lq Lq A q L c4.- ( m m q LA In w w m~ .-Center of Interval (minutes)-Cumulative Data --Cumulative Normal Figure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution

6) In particular, the cumulative distribution differs from the normal distribution in two key aspects, both very important in loading a network to estimate evacuation times: Most of the real data is to the left of the "normal" curve above, indicating that the network loads faster for the first 80-85% of the vehicles, potentially causing more (and earlier) congestion than otherwise modeled;> The last 10-15% of the real data "tails off" slower than the comparable "normal" curve, indicating that there is significant traffic still loading at later times.Because these two features are important to preserve, it is the histogram of the data that is used to describe the mobilization activities, not a "normal" curve fit to the data. One could consider other distributions, but using the shape of the actual data curve is unambiguous and preserves these important features;7) With the mobilization activities each modeled according to Steps 1-6, including preserving the features cited in Step 6, the overall (or total) mobilization times are constructed.

This is done by using the data sets and distributions under different scenarios (e.g. commuter returning, no commuter returning, no snow or snow in each). In general, these are additive, Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 using weighting based upon the probability distributions of each element;Figure 5-4 presents the combined trip generation distributions designated A, C, D, E and F. These distributions are presented on the same time scale. (As discussed earlier, the use of strictly additive activities is a conservative approach, because it makes all activities sequential

-preparation for departure follows the return of the commuter; snow clearance follows the preparation for departure, and so forth. In practice, it is reasonable that some of these activities are done in parallel, at least to some extent -for instance, preparation to depart begins by a household member at home while the commuter is still on the road.)The mobilization distributions that result are used in their tabular/graphical form as direct inputs to later computations that lead to the ETE.The DYNEV II simulation model is designed to accept varying rates of vehicle trip generation for each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms.

These histograms, which represent Distributions A, C, D, E and F, properly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated in Table 5-9 (Distribution B, Arrive Home, omitted for clarity).The final time period (14) is 600 minutes long. This time period is added to allow the analysis network to clear, in the event congestion persists beyond the trip generation period. Note that there are no trips generated during this final time period.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 5-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

5.4.2 Staged

Evacuation Trip Generation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. PAA comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately

2. PAA comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the 2 mile region is cleared 3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, sheltered people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation

4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region are advised to begin evacuating when approximately 90% of those originally within the 2 mile region evacuate across the 2 mile region boundary 5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%Assumptions

1. The EPZ population in PAA beyond 5 miles will react as does the population in the 2 to 5 mile region; that is they will first shelter, then evacuate after the 90th percentile ETE for the 2 mile region 2. The population in the shadow region beyond the EPZ boundary, extending to approximately 15 miles radially from the plant, will react as they do for all non-staged evacuation scenarios.

That is 20% of these households will elect to evacuate with no shelter delay.3. The transient population will not be expected to stage their evacuation because of the limited sheltering options available to people who may be at parks, on a beach, or other venues. Also, notifying the transient population of a staged evacuation would prove difficult.

4. Employees will also be assumed to evacuate without first sheltering.

Procedure 1. Trip generation for population groups in the 2 mile region will be as computed based upon the results of the telephone survey and analysis.2. Trip generation for the population subject to staged evacuation will be formulated as follows: a. Identify the 9 0 th percentile evacuation time for the PAA comprising the two mile region. This value, Tscen*, obtained from simulation results is scenario-specific.

It will become the time at which the region being sheltered will be told to evacuate for each scenario.b. The resultant trip generation curves for staging are then formed as follows: i. The non-shelter trip generation curve is followed until a maximum of 20%of the total trips are generated (to account for shelter non-compliance).

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 ii. No additional trips are generated until time Tscen*iii. Following time Tscen*, the balance of trips are generated:

1. by stepping up and then following the non-shelter trip generation curve (if Tscen is < max trip generation time) or 2. by stepping up to 100% (if Tscen* is > max trip generation time)c. Note: This procedure implies that there may be different staged trip generation distributions for different scenarios.

NUREG/CR-7002 uses the statement"approximately 9 0 th percentile" as the time to end staging and begin evacuating.

The value of Tscen is 2:05 for non-snow scenarios and 2:10 for snow scenarios.

3. Staged trip generation distributions are created for the following population groups: a. Residents with returning commuters b. Residents without returning commuters c. Residents with returning commuters and snow conditions

d. Residents without returning commuters and snow conditions Figure 5-5 presents the staged trip generation distributions for both residents with and without returning commuters; the 9 0 th percentile two-mile evacuation time is 125 minutes and 130 minutes for non-snow and snow scenarios, respectively.

At the 90th percentile evacuation time, 20% of the population (who normally would have completed their mobilization activities for an un-staged evacuation) advised to shelter has nevertheless departed the area. These people do not comply with the shelter advisory.

Also included on the plot are the trip generation distributions for these groups as applied to the regions advised to evacuate immediately.

Since the q 0 th percentile evacuation time occurs before the end of the trip generation period, after the sheltered region is advised to evacuate, the shelter trip generation distribution rises to meet the balance of the non-staged trip generation distribution.

Following time Tscen*, the balance of staged evacuation trips that are ready to depart are released Within 15 minutes. After Tscen*+15, the remainder of evacuation trips are generated in accordance with the unstaged trip generation distribution.

Table 5-10 provides the trip generation histograms for staged evacuation.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 5-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 100 80 C 6.0 LU o 20 0 CL W.0.4 00 0 Trip Generation Distributions

-Employees/Transients

-Residents with Commuters

-Residents with no Commuters-Residents with Comm and Snow- Residents no Comm with Snow_ -ýI I I I I I I 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time from Evacuating Advisory (min)240 270 300 330 Figure 5-4. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Unstaged Evacuation Pecn of 0oa Trp Geeae Wihi Iniae Tim Period *1 15 7%7%0%1%0%1%2 15 35% 35% 0% 9% 0% 5%3 15 38% 38% 4% 22% 3% 14%4 15 14% 14% 12% 21% 7% 16%5 15 4% 4% 18% 14% 12% 14%6 15 2% 2% 17% 12% 14% 14%7 15 0% 0% 15% 8% 14% 10%8 15 0% 0% 11% 2% 13% 6%9 30 0% 0% 11% 6% 16% 9%10 30 0% 0% 7% 2% 9% 5%11 30 0% 0% 2% 3% 6% 3%12 60 0% 0% 3% 0% 5% 3%13 30 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%14 600 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%NOTE:* Shadow vehicles are loaded onto the analysis network (Figure 1-2) using Distributions C and E for good weather and snow, respectively.

• Special event vehicles are loaded using Distribution A.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Staged and Unstaged Evacuation Trip Generation

-Employees

/ Transients

-Residents with no Commuters-Residents no Comm with Snow-Staged Residents with no Commuters-Residents with Commuters-Residents with Comm and Snow-Staged Residents with Commuters-Staged Residents with Commuters (Snow)100 80 M ho R m 60 U.'z 40 0 0 20 20 ff LA 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time from Evacuating Advisory (min)Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Unstaged Trip Generation Distributions in the 2 to 5 Mile Region Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Table 5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation 1 15 0%0%0%0%2 15 0% 2% 0% 1%3 15 1% 4% 1% 3%4 15 2% 5% 1% 3%5 15 4% 2% 2% 3%6 15 3% 3% 3% 3%7 15 3% 1% 3% 2%8 15 2% 1% 3% 1%9 30 73% 77% 66% 73%10 30 7% 2% 9% 5%11 30 2% 3% 6% 3%12 60 3% 0% 5% 3%13 30 0% 0% 1% 0%14 600 0% 0% 0% 0%*Trip Generation for Employees and Transients (see Table 5-9) is the same for Unstaged and Staged Evacuation.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 6 DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation "case" defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario.The definitions of "Region" and "Scenario" are as follows: Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating PAA that forms either a "keyhole" sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.

Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions.

Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.

A total of 10 Regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of PAA considered.

These Regions are defined in Table 6-1. The PAA configurations are identified in Figure 6-1.Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.

The central sector coincides with the wind direction.

These sectors extend to 5 miles from the plant (Regions R04 and R05) or to the EPZ boundary (Regions R06 and R07). Regions R01, R02 and R03 represent evacuations of circular areas with radii of 2, 5 and 10 miles, respectively.

Regions R08 through RiO are identical to Regions R04, R05 and R02, respectively; however, those PAA between 2 miles and 5 miles are staged until 90% of the 2-mile region (Region R01) has evacuated.

A total of 14 Scenarios were evaluated for all Regions. Thus, there are a total of 10 x 14 = 140 evacuation cases. Table 6-2 is a description of all Scenarios.

Each combination of region and scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated.

Table 6-3 presents the percentage of each population group assumed to evacuate for each scenario.Table 6-4 presents the vehicle counts for each scenario for an evacuation of Region R03 -the entire EPZ.The vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 are peak values. These peak values are adjusted depending on the scenario and region being considered, using scenario and region specific percentages, such that the average population is considered for each evacuation case. The scenario percentages are presented in Table 6-3, while the regional percentages are provided in Table H-1. The percentages presented in Table 6-3 were determined as follows: The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is equal to the product of 58% (the number of households with at least one commuter) and 48%(the number of households with a commuter that would await the return of the commuter prior to evacuating).

See assumption 3 in Section 2.3. It is estimated for weekend and evening scenarios that 10% of households with returning commuters will have a commuter at work during those times.Employment is assumed to be at its peak during the winter, midweek, and midday scenarios.

Employment is reduced slightly (96%) for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

This is based on Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 6-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 the assumption that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further assumed that those taking vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of employees vacationing each week. It is further assumed that only 10% of the employees are working in the evenings and during the weekends.Transient activity is assumed to be at its peak during summer weekends and less (35%) during the week. As shown in Appendix E, there are some lodging and campground facilities offering overnight accommodations in the EPZ; thus, transient activity is assumed to be slightly higher during evening hours in the summer, 40%, and less in winter, 5%. Transient activity on winter weekends is assumed to be 12%.Seasonal population is estimated to be 100% during summer months, and 0% during all other times.As noted in the shadow footnote to Table 6-3, the shadow percentages are computed using a base of 20% (see assumption 5 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the shadow region who may choose to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario-specific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the shadow region. For example, using the values provided in Table 6-4 for Scenario 1, the shadow percentage is computed as follows: 20% x 1+ 2,241 21%\ 10,015 +26,254)One special event -4 th of July Fireworks at Silver Beach -was considered as Scenario 13. Thus, the special event traffic is 100% evacuated for Scenario 13, and 0% for all other scenarios.

It is assumed that summer school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during the regular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

School is not in session during weekends and evenings, thus no buses for school children are needed under those circumstances.

As discussed in Section 7, schools are assumed to be in session during the winter season, midweek, midday and 100% of buses will be needed under those circumstances.

Transit buses for the transit-dependent population are set to 100% for all scenarios as it is assumed that the transit-dependent population is present in the EPZ for all scenarios.

External traffic is assumed to be reduced by 60% during evening scenarios and is 100% for all other scenarios.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 6-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions I II ENE, E, ESE, SE, SSE Refer to Region R01 R06 NW, NNW, N, NNE, NE, ENE E, ESE, SE, SSE Refer to Region R02 R07 S, SSW, SW WSW. W. WNW Refer to Reeion R03 WNW, NW, NNW, N, NNE, NE Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 6-1. EPZ Protective Action Areas Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 6-4 Evacuation Time Estimate KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Da of Tmeo Sceari Sesn ekDy ete pca 1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None 5 Summer Midweek, Evening Good None Weekend 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None 12 Winter Midweek, Evening Good None Weekend Eeig Go Silver Beach 13 Summer Weekend Evening Good Fireworks Show Roadway Impact -Single 14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Lane Closure on 1-94 Eastbound 1 Winter assumes that school is in session (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer assumes that school is not in session.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-5 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios 1 28% 72% 96% 35% 21% 0% 100% 10% 100% 100%2 28% 72% 96% 35% 21% 0% 100% 10% 100% 100%3 10% 90% 10% 100% 20% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100%4 10% 90% 10% 100% 20% 0% 100% 0% 100% 100%5 10% 90% 10% 40% 20% 0% 100% 0% 100% 40%6 28% 72% 100% 5% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100%7 28% 72% 100% 5% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100%8 28% 72% 100% 5% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100% 100%9 10% 90% 10% 12% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%10 10% 90% 10% 12% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%11 10% 90% 10% 12% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%12 10% 90% 10% 5% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 40%13 10% 90% 10% 40% 20% 100% 100% 0% 100% 40%14 28% 72% 96% 35% 21% 0% 100% 10% 100% 100%Resident Households with Commuters

...... Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Resident Households with No Commuters.

Households of EPZ residents who do not have commuters or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Employees

.................................................

EPZ employees who live outside the EPZ Transients

.................................................

People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.Shadow .....................................................

Residents and employees in the shadow region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation.

The basis for the values shown is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees.

Special Events ...........................................

Additional vehicles In the EPZ due to the Identified special event.Seasonal ....................................................

People who reside outside of the EPZ and enter the area to stay in accommodations other than hotels.School and Transit Buses ...........................

Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and transit-dependent people (1 bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles).

External Through Traffic ............................

Traffic on interstates/freeways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation.

This traffic is stopped by access control approximately 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the evacuation begins.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 6-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 0 Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario 1 10,015 26,254 2,241 1,311 4,191 1,899 45 148 110,806 56,910 2 10,015 26,254 2,241 1,311 4,191 -1,899 45 148 10,806 56,910 3 1,002 35,268 233 3,745 3,973 -1,899 -148 10,806 57,074 4 1,002 35,268 233 3,745 3,973 -1,899 148 10,806 57,074 5 1,002 35,268 233 1,498 3,973 -1,899 -148 4,322 48,343 6 10,015 26,254 2,334 187 4,201 --450 148 10,806 54,395 7 10,015 26,254 2,334 187 4,201 --450 148 10,806 54,395 8 10,015 26,254 2,334 187 4,201 --450 148 10,806 54,395 9 1,002 35,268 233 449 3,973 ---148 10,806 51,879 10 1,002 35,268 233 449 3,973 ---148 10,806 51,879 11 1,002 35,268 233 449 3,973 ---148 10,806 51,879 12 1,002 35,268 233 187 3,973 ---148 4,322 45,133 13 1,002 35,268 233 1,498 3,973 5,417 1,899 -148 4,322 53,760 14 10,015 26,254 2,241 1,311 4,191 -1,899 45 148 10,806 56,910 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the current ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover 10 regions within the DCCNP EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regions for all Evacuation Scenarios.

The ETE of the 2-mile region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the Evacuation Regions considered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.

7.1 Voluntary

Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation"Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in PAAs for which an Advisory to Evacuate has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.The ETE for the DCCNP EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in PAAs outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.

Similarly, it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 36,905 people reside in the Shadow Evacuation Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.

See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the DCCNP location, has a potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. PAAs comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately.

2. PAAs comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the two mile region is cleared.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 7-1 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate when approximately 90% of the 2 mile region evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile region boundary.5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.

7.3 Patterns

of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ (Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5): The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.

However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

a Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);* Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, I h, 3 h); and* Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.

These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these Figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.

Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.

Figure 7-3 displays the rapidly developing congestion within the population centers of Benton Harbor and St Joseph to the north of DCCNP, and Berrien Springs to the east, just 45 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE). Note that Interstate-94 (1-94), which is servicing external-external trips as well as evacuating trips, is operating at LOS F eastbound out of the study area. Cleveland Ave southbound is also exhibiting minor traffic congestion at this time.At one hour and 30 minutes after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays fully-developed congestion, Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 centralized in St Joseph and Benton Harbor. All routes servicing evacuees from these areas are congested, with most operating at LOS F. State Route 63, 1-196, and 1-94 exhibit pronounced congestion northbound and eastbound out of the study area. US Route 31 and State Route 139 are also exhibiting high traffic demand in the Berrien Springs area at this time.Figure 7-5 indicates that at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />, congestion in the southern portion of the EPZ and within the 5-mile radius has cleared. Congestion persists in St Joseph and Benton Harbor; however, it has eased over the last 30 minutes. Many vehicles are evacuating eastbound towards State Route 140 to avoid the congestion along State Route 63, 1-196 and 1-94.Nearly all traffic congestion within the EPZ has cleared by 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br />, as shown in Figure 7-7. The lone remnants of congestion in the study area at this time are in the Shadow Region to the north, on State Route 63 crossing the St Joseph River and near the interchange of 1-196 and I-94.Traffic congestion within the EPZ clears by 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 15 minutes after the ATE, and clears from the study area at 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 45 minutes after the ATE. As indicated in Figure 7-8, only two isolated instances of congestion exist on the on State Route 63 crossing the St Joseph River and ramp accessing 1-94 from Main St. at 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes after the ATE.7.4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-9 through Figure 7-22. These Figures indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions.

One figure is presented for each scenario considered.

As indicated in Figure 7-9, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.

Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase).

When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by these curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal.

Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) Results Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 20 Evacuation Regions and all 14 Evacuation Scenarios.

Table 7-3 through Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile region Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 for both staged and un-staged keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles. They are organized as follows: Tal-Cotet ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-3 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-4 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8.Most of the congestion was located in PAAs 4 and 5 which are beyond the 5-mile area; this is reflected in the ETE statistics:

• The 90th percentile ETE for Regions RO0, R02, R04 and R05 (2- and 5-mile areas) are comparable and generally range between 2:00 and 2:10 (slightly higher for rain and snow)." The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Regions R03 (full EPZ) and R06 -R07 (which extend to the EPZ boundary) are approximately 15 minutes longer.The 100th percentile ETE for all regions and for all scenarios parallel the trip mobilization time.As discussed in Section 7.3, all traffic congestion in the study area is clear by 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 25 minutes after the ATE, well before the trip generation time of 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> 30 minutes (5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> for snow).Comparison of Scenarios 5 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -fireworks in Silver Beach -has little impact on the ETE for the 9 0 th percentile.

As discussed in Section 6, the external traffic is reduced by 60% for these scenarios as they are evening scenarios.

The additional 5,417 vehicles present for the special event increase congestion on the local roads in Silver Beach and Benton Harbor and on the ramps to 1-94. However, much of the capacity along 1-94 is available because of the reduced external traffic. As a result, the 2- and 5-Mile Regions are not affected, while the ETE for the entire EPZ (Region R03) only increases by 10 minutes.Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane eastbound on 1-94 from the plant to the interchange with Interstate 196 (Exit 34) -does not Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 7-4 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 have a material impact (change in ETE of 30 minutes or more) on 9 0 th percentile ETE. The closure of 1-94 has the largest impact for the full EPZ (Region R03) and for the keyhole region (Region R07) extending to the EPZ boundary with wind from the south to south-southwest, with up to 15 minute increases in 90th percentile ETE. Wind from the south, southwest and south-southwest (Region R07) carries the plume over St. Joseph and Benton Harbor, which routes evacuees onto 1-94 eastbound.

With a lane closed on 1-94 eastbound in the Benton Harbor area, the capacity of 1-94 is reduced to half, increasing congestion and slightly prolonging ETE.Regions R04 through R06 involve evacuation predominately southbound along 1-94 and US 31, and are not materially impacted by the decreased capacity northbound along 1-94.The results of the roadway impact scenario indicate that events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a lane on 1-94 only have a slight impact ETE. Regions that include PAA 4 increase their 9 0 th percentile ETE by 15 minutes and other regions increase by 5 minutes or less. These differences do not necessarily warrant additional traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming 1-94.7.6 Staged Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R08 through RIO are the same geographic areas as Regions R04, R05 and R02, respectively.

To determine whether the staged evacuation strategy is worthy of consideration, it must be shown that the ETE for the 2-mile region can be reduced without significantly affecting the region between 2 miles and 5 miles. In all cases, as shown in these tables, the ETE for the 2 mile region is unchanged when a staged evacuation is implemented.

The reason for this is that the congestion within the 5-mile area does not extend upstream to the extent that it penetrates to within 2 miles of the DCCNP. Consequently, the impedance, due to this congestion within the 5-mile area, to evacuees from within the 2-mile area is not sufficient to materially influence the 9 0 th percentile ETE for the 2-mile area. Therefore, staging the evacuation to reduce congestion within the 5-mile area provides no benefits to evacuees from within the 2 mile region and unnecessarily delays the evacuation of those beyond 2 miles.While failing to provide assistance to evacuees from within 2 miles of the DCCNP, staging produces a negative impact on the ETE for those evacuating from within the 5-mile area. A comparison of ETE between Regions, R08 and R04, R09 and R05, and RiO and R02, reveals that staging retards the 9 0 th percentile evacuation time for those in the 2 to 5-mile area by up to 35 minutes (see Table 7-1). This extending of ETE is due to the delay in beginning the evacuation trip, experienced by those who shelter, plus the effect of the trip-generation "spike" (significant volume of traffic beginning the evacuation trip at the same time) that follows their eventual ATE, in creating congestion within the EPZ area beyond 2 miles.In summary, the staged evacuation option provides no benefits and adversely impacts many evacuees located beyond 2 miles from the DCCNP.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

7.7 Guidance

on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC guidance calls for the 90th percentile).

The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table may then be identified using the following procedure:

1. Identify the applicable Scenario:* Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)* Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend* Time of Day" Midday" Evening" Weather Condition" Good Weather" Rain" Snow" Special Event" Silver Beach Fireworks Show" Road Closure (A single lane on 1-94 EB is closed)* Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered" Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:

• The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for rain apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for snow apply.0 The seasons are defined as follows: " Summer assumes that public schools are not in session." Winter (includes spring and autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region: Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1

• Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction).

This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:

from N, NNE, NE...* Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are given below: 0 2 Miles (Region R01)N To 5 Miles (Region R02, R04 and R05)0 to EPZ Boundary (Regions R03, R06 and R07)* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on the distance that the selected Region extends from the Cook Nuclear Plant. Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.

Then, for the Scenario identified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 are labeled with the Scenario numbers. Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the Scenario number defined in Step 1.* Identify the row in this table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in Step 2'* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:

• Sunday, August 10th at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is from the southwest (SW).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radius and downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).

• The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population from within the impacted Region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 90th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows: 1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors.

However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction from the SW and read Region R07 in the first column of that row.3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and Region R07. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R07; it contains the ETE value of 2:25.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-8 KID Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday RegionIoodoRaiRGooda Region Good Good Good Good RainGood Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather I Sno Weather Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ R0 .1 2:00 2:05 2:00 12:10 2:00 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:05o 2:10 2:00 2:0 R02 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:35 2:10 2:15 2:30 2:10 2:05 2:10 R03 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:15 2:25 2:30 2:50 2:15 2:25 2:45 2:15 2:25 2:40 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:05 2:00 2:05 2:052:15 2:05 2:052:15 2:0512:00 2:05 R0o 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 1 2:10 1o2:15 .2:30 .2:05 2:10 ..2:25 .2:05 .2:05 2:10 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R06 2:15 2:20 2:05 2;10 2:10 2:15 2:20 2:45 2:10 2:15 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:15 R07 / 2:25 /2:35 2:20 2:25 2:15 , 2:20 1 2:30[ 2:50 2:15 2:25 2:40 2:15 2:25 2:40 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles ROB 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:30 2:25 2:25 2:35 2:25 2:25 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:25 R09 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:35 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:45 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:40 2:40 2:35 RiO 2:40 2:40 2:35 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:45 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:40 2:40 2:40 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good ood Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, S-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 4:30 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:35 5:00 4:30 4:30 5:00 4:35 4:30 4:30 R02 4:35 4:40 4:35 4:40 4:35 4:40 4:40 5:05 4:35 4:35 5:05 4:40 4:35 4:40 R03 4:45 4:55 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:45 4:45 5:.5 4:40 4:40 5:10 4:45 4:40 4:50 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 5:05 4:35 4:35 5:05 4:35 4:35 [ 4:40 R 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 J 5:05 4:35 4:35 5:05 4:35 4:35 4:35 S-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R06 4:40 4:50 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:45 f 4.45 5:10 4:40 4:40 5:10 4:40 4:40 4:40 R07 4:45 4:55 4:40 4:40 4:40 4:45 4:45 5:15 4:40 4:40 5:10 4:40 4:40 4:45 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles ROB 4:40 4:40 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 5:05 4:35 4:35 5:05 4:35 4:35 4:40 R09 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 5:05 4:35 4:35 5:05 4:35 4:35 4:40 R1O 4:40 4:40 4:35 4:35 4:35 j 4:40 4:40 5:05 4:35 4:35 5:05 4:35 4:35 4:40 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend Unstae d Midweek Weekend M Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scnrio: ( 2: (2:0 [ (30) [4 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:0 2:5 210) (1) (2:0 [ 13 2:014):0 Midday Midday Evening -Midday Midday Evening Evening IMidday Region Good Ran Good ! Ran ood Good° Ran S ow ood Sno Good Seil Roadway W eath r Ra n W eather Ra n W a h r IW eather RI n Sno I e t e a n S o W eather E e t I p c Unstaged Evacuation Mile Region R1 20 2:5 20 12:10 2 :0I :0 :5 1 2:1 1 2:0 1 2:05l 2:10 2:00 2:00 " 2:05 Unstaged Evacuation

-Keyhole to 5-Miles R02 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:00 2:00 2:05 R04 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:05 2:00 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:05 R05 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:00 2:00 2:05 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to S-Miles RO f 2:00 2:05 2:0 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:05 2: :00 2:05 R09 2:00 2:05 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:05 R10 2:00 2:05 2:00 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:05 2:10 200 205 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:05 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Scn ro 1)@ (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)] (1i2) (13) (14)Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Good I Rain Snow Good Special Roadway WeatherWeather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event impact Unstaged Evacuation Mile Region and 5-Mile Ring R01 4:30 14:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 14:35 14:35 15:00 14:30 14:30 5:00 [4:30 4:30 4:30 Unstaged Evacuation

-Keyhole to 5-Miles R02 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:35 5:00 4:30 4:30 5:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R04 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:35 5:00 4:30 4:30 5:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 ROS 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:35 5:00 4:30 4:30 5:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5-Miles R08 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:35 :00 4:30 4:30 5:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 R09 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:35 5:00 4:30 4:30 5:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 RIO 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:35 5:00 4:30 4:30 5:00 4:30 4:30 4:30 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions 10 2-il 3Rin5 Evacuatie 2-ieRai usadDwwngt ie Regio W inW, Diecio From: NEN ENE, E, ESE, SE, SSE Refer to Region R01 oS .S, SS,s Sw I I_WSW, W Refer to Region R02 E, ESE, SE, SSE Refer to Region R02 R07 S, SSW, SW WSW, W, WNW Refer to Region R03 Reion Wind DietoWrm Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. i r~T~E~1 E~1 Keyole: 2-Mis RegOnM & 5 Mfts onwn Ke;hol SMM. Region & 10 Mb ýDownwin Stage Evamuaio:

2-Mis Regio & 5 Miss Dowimwln*PatLocadon

• Region to be Evacuated.

100% Evacuaton F]20% Shaow Evacutonw N Shelte, #we Evacute Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Figure 7-2. Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Shadow Region Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 S Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 45 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-17 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-18 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%60 50 ba m~ 40 u 30!20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 1 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%60 50 -.40 M 30 20 10 20 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 2 for Region R03 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%60 50 40 L, 30"- 20 10 0 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%60 50 40).tU LU 30 0 20 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 4 for Region R03 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%60 50 JS-40 Lu 30'0 20 10 0 J 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%60 50 m~ 40 ,,, 30 30! 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 6 for Region R03 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 60 50 bbl S40 u 30:E 20 10 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%J. L low 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%60 50 S40 u 30 10 20 10 00- 0-0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 8 for Region R03 7-25 KID Engineering.

P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-25 KLD Engineeringe P.C.Rev. I Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%

• 100%60 50 m~ 40 u,, 30 03 10 0 00or"00 :eýmow 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 9 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%60 50 A M U, =30 03" 20 M 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 10 for Region R03 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%50 45 ba 40.~35-r 30 Lu 25 W 20"U'--E 15> 10 5 0 All-.0000-II 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%60 50 h.m 40>30* -20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 12 for Region R03 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%60 bo 50.E-20> 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%60 to 50 7 40 uJ 30~20> 10 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 14 for Region R03 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles.

The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; and (3) homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:

• Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. Based on discussions with Berrien County, it is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.

Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting family units is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the DCCNP EPZ indicates that parents should not pick up children at school; rather, they should pick up children at the host school. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.

This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.

It is assumed that children at day-care centers are picked up by parents or guardians and that the time to perform this activity is included in the trip generation times discussed in Section 5.The procedure is:* Estimate demand for transit service* Estimate time to perform all transit functions* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the school reception centers Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-1 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

8.1 Transit

Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service:* Those persons in households that do not have a vehicle available.

• Those persons in households that do have vehicle(s) that would not be available at the time the evacuation is advised.In the latter group, the vehicle(s) may be used by a commuter(s) who does not return (or is not expected to return) home to evacuate the household.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note: Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.

For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.

The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.

However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xlO) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.[20 + (x O)] + 40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 2,206 people. Therefore, a total of 74 bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public I transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the DCCNP EPZ: j n P = No2 of HH x --(% HH with i vehicles) x [(Average HH Size) -i] X AiCi i=O Where, A = Percent of households with commuters C = Percent of households who will not await the return of a commuter P = 27,473 k [0.039 x 1.68 + 0.278 x (1.81 -1) x 0.58 x 0.52 + 0.478 x (2.62 -2): x (0.58 x 0.52)2] = 4,411 B = (0.5 x P) -30 = 74 These calculations are explained as follows:* All members (1.68 avg.) of households (HH) with no vehicles (3.9%) will evacuate by public transit or ride-share.

The term 27,473 (number of households) x 0.039 x 1.68, accounts for these people.* The members (1.80 avg.) of HH with 1 vehicle away (27.8%), who are at home, equal (1.81-1).

The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to (217,473 x 0.278 x 0.58 x 0.52), as 58% of EPZ households have a commuter, 52% of which would not return home in the event of an emergency.

The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms.* The members of HH with 2 vehicles that are away (47.8%), who are at home, equal (2.62 -2). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is equal to 27,473 x 0.478 x (0.58 x 0.52)2. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will return).* Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.* Tlie total number of persons requiring public transit is the sum of such people in HH with no vehicles, or with 1 or 2 vehicles that are away from home.The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in fhe EPZ as provided by Berrien County (discussed below in Section 8.5). This is c onsistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not register with their loc al emergency response agency.Donald C. Cook:Nuclear Plant 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

8.2 School

Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all schools within the EPZ for the 2011-2012 school year. This information was provided by Berrien County. The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Bus Runs Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

• No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and 50 for middle and high schools.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.It is recommended that Berrien County introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot (approximately one hour after the Advisory to Evacuate), to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated.

In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).

Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Table 8-3 presents a list of the host schools for each school in the EPZ. Students will be transported to these host schools where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.

Note that two host schools (Berrien Springs High School and Berrien Springs Middle School) are located within the EPZ (note they are located more than 10 miles away from the plant). The travel time from the EPZ boundary to these host schools is calculated as 0 minutes in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9.8.3 Special Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of special facilities in the EPZ. Approximately 639 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.

The capacity and current census for each facility were provided by the Berrien County emergency management agency.The transportation requirements for the special facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can be accommodated per ambulance trip; the number of wheelchair bus runs assumes 15 wheelchairs per trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

8.4 Evacuation

Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuate schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.

In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the reception center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.

For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.

The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Activity:

Mobilize Drivers (A-)B-->C)

Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

Based on discussion with Berrien County emergency management personnel, drivers would require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.Activity:

Board Passengers (C-*D)Based on discussions with Berrien County, a loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is used.For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

T=t+B+t= B + 2t= B+ , a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.

The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is: Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 P =T- =B +a a Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* .a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:

Travel to EPZ Boundary (D--E)School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by the Berrien County emergency management agency and are summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table are the number of buses needed to evacuate medical facilities, transit-dependent population, and homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5). Comparison of resources available and resources needed indicate there are not sufficient buses available to evacuate everyone in a single-wave; however, surplus vans can be used to supplement any transportation shortfalls.

It is assumed schoolchildren are given top priority in assigning transit vehicles (see assumption 7e in Section 2.3).The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate school reception center. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Average Speed Zý length of link i (mi) 60 min.rX h.length of link i (mi.) 60 min.D e l a o n i n k ( m i .) +M i .) x 1 h r .current speed on link i X 1h.The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the Reception Center was computed assuming an average speed of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to these speeds for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 55 mph (50 mph for rain, 45 mph for snow), as the school bus speed limit for state routes in Michigan is 55 mph.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the host school. The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of travel times associated with Activities A->B->C, C->D, and D->E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 14 = 2:00 for Bridgman Elementary School, with good weather).

The evacuation time to the host school is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E->F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.

As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), 90 percent of the evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 120 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.

PAAs 4 and 5 have high transit-dependent populations and require more buses than any other PAA (Table 8-10). As such, two separate routes have been identified for each of these PAAs. The start of service on all routes is staggered in groups by 20 minute headways, as shown in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13.Buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. The 7 bus routes shown graphically in Figure 8-2 and described in Table 8-10 were designed by KLD (pre-established bus routes do not exist) to service the major routes through each PAA.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop.The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.

Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that, was used for school evacuation.

Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the first bus servicing PAA 1 is computed as 120 + 19 + 30 = 2:50 for good weather (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes).

Here, 19 minutes is the time to travel 16.7 miles at 51.50 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route at 120 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers.Activity:

Travel to Reception Centers (E->F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.

Assumed bus speeds of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity:

Passengers Leave Bus (F-->G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.Activity:

Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G->C)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the reception center.The second-wave ETE for the first bus servicing PAA 1 is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at reception center at 3:03 in good weather (2:50 to exit EPZ + 13 minute travel time to reception center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Bus returns to EPZ and completes second wave service of route: 13 minutes (Travel Time to Reception Center) + 21 minutes (16.7 miles @ 47.60 mph) = 34 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 2:50 + 0:13 + 0:15 + 0:34 + 0:30 = 4:25 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people exceeds the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile.

The relocation of transit-dependent evacuees from the reception centers to congregate care centers, if Berrien County decides to do so, is not considered in this study.Evacuation of Special Facilities The bus operations for this group are similar to those for school evacuation except: Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients.The passenger loading time will be longer at approximately one minute per patient to account for the time to move patients from inside the facility to the vehicles.Table 8-4 indicates that 19 bus runs, 15 wheelchair bus runs and 5 ambulance runs are needed to service all of the special facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, Berrien County can provide 214 buses, 55 vans, 20 wheel-chair accessible buses, 5 wheelchair accessible vans and 22 ambulances.

After considering the resources required for the evacuation of schools, there are insufficient resources to evacuate the people in special facilities in one wave. Thus, a two-wave evacuation is required.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes. Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.

Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.

Table 8-14 through Table 8-19 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain, and snow. Based on the locations of the medical facilities in Figure E-2, it is estimated that buses will have to travel 5 miles, on average, to leave the EPZ. Loading times of 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes are assumed for ambulatory patients, wheelchair bound patients, and bedridden patients, respectively.

Average route speeds output by the model, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to the EPZ boundary.

The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses, wheelchair buses/vans, and ambulances at capacity is assumed. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the calculation of the single-wave ETE for Woodland Terrace with 63 ambulatory residents during good weather is: ETE: 90 + 30 x 1 + 5 = 125 min. or 2:05 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. (Assumed concurrent loading with 30 patients per bus)Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-9 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 It is assumed that special facility population is directly evacuated to Lakeland Community Hospital in Niles, Michigan.

Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis.The following outlines the ETE calculations for Woodland Terrace during good weather if a second wave is needed: a. Exit EPZ for first wave evacuation:

2:05 b. Travel time to host facility:

11 minutes (Travel 10.4 mi @ 55 mph)c. Unload passengers at host facility:

30 min d. Driver rest: 10 min e. Travel time back to medical facility and load passengers:

41 minutes f. Travel time to EPZ boundary at 3:40: 5 miles @ 55 mph = 5 minutes ETE: 2:05 + 11 + 30 + 10 + 41 + 5 = 3:45 8.5 Special Needs Population The Berrien County emergency management agency has a combined registration for transit-dependent and homebound special needs population.

Based on data provided by the county, there are an estimated 162 people within the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate.

Of the 162 mobility impaired special needs population, 58 are ambulatory and require a bus to evacuate, 103 are wheelchair bound and require a wheelchair capable bus to evacuate, and 1 is bedridden and requires an ambulance to evacuate.ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-20 and Table 8-21 summarize the ETE for homebound special needs people for a single wave and two wave evacuation, respectively.

The tables are categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.

The tables take into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle. It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory and wheelchair bound special needs households are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Van and bus speeds approximate 20 mph between households and ambulance speeds approximate 30 mph in good weather (10%slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minutes were used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow). The last household is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at the first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to the EPZ boundary.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 58 ambulatory households need to be serviced.

While only 2 buses are needed from a capacity perspective, if 5 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-10 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 about 12 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 5 buses are deployed, each with about 12 stops, to service a total of 58 HH.2. The ETE is calculated as follows: a. Buses arrive at the first pickup location:

90 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:

11 @ 9 minutes = 99 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:

11 @ 5 minutes = 55 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:

11 minutes (5 miles at 26.8 mph).ETE: 90 + 5 + 99 + 55 + 11 = 4:20 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.The following outlines the ETE calculations for a second wave: a.b.C.d.e.f.Travel time to reception center: 11 minutes (10 miles @ 55 mph)Unload homebound special needs persons at host facility:

60 minutes Driver takes 10 minute rest: 10 minutes.Travel time back to EPZ: 11 minutes (10 miles @ 55 mph)Loading time at all households:

12 HH @ 5 minutes = 60 minutes Travel time between households and to EPZ boundary at 6:05: 104 minutes (9 minutes between stops and travel 5 miles @ 55 mph)ETE: 4:20 + 11 + 60 + 10 + 11 + 60 + 104 = 8:40 rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-11 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 (Subsequent Wave)a U 'm t: ý_ 10 ZZ-Time A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Reception Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service A--+B Driver Mobilization B--,C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C--.D Passengers Board the Bus D-+E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E--*F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZ F--*G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 00 Transit Dependent

-Bus Routes oe ,-, DCCNP// -I -----=.__7 2" PAA /,,,,Ro Io 2,~ 5,1,11il ig ~Shfo .........

eg........

i on CayrA ESP io e Dab~i n 4 ENAtf I., AdW tC" Figure 8-2. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Evacuation Time Estimate 1 67,858 1168 11.81 12.62 1 27,473 1 0 0 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates 58% 52% 4,411 50% 2,206 3.3%8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.I Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 8-2. School Population Demand Estimates I ridgman tiementary 659 b 2 Christ Lutheran School 100 2 2 Lakeshore High School 928 19 2 Lakeshore Middle School 641 13 2 Roosevelt Elementary 267 4 2 St. Paul's Lutheran School 120 3 2 Stewart Elementary School 267 4 2 Upton Middle School 722 15 3 Bridgman High School 318 7 3 F.C. Reed Middle School 298 6 4 Brookview School 121 3 4 Brown Elementary School 343 5 4 Creative Arts/Gifted and Talented Academy 267 6 4 E.P. Clarke Elementary School 460 7 4 Fairplain Middle School 357 8 4 Fairplain West Elementary School 265 4 4 Good Shepard Evangelical Lutheran Church 35 1 4 Grace Lutheran School 145 3 4 Great Lakes Montessori 68 2 4 Hollywood Elementary School 450 7 4 Lake Michigan Catholic Elementary School 270 4 4 Lighthouse Education Center 108 3 4 Lincoln Elementary School 414 6 4 Michigan Lutheran High School 125 3 4 North Lincoln School 267 6 4 River School 64 2 4 St. Joseph Senior High School 1000 20 4 Trinity Lutheran School (St Joseph) 212 5 5 Alternative Education Center 162 4 5 Andrews Academy 230 5 5 Andrews University 3200 20 5 Chikaming Elementary School 267 4 5 River Valley Middle/High School 387 8 5 Trinity Lutheran School (Sawyer) 200 4 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-3. School Reception Centers Scoo Host Scho Creative Arts /Gifted & Talented Academies Fairplain Middle School Benton Harbor High School Fairplain West Good Shepard Evangelical Lutheran Church Alternative Education Center Andrews Academy Andrews University Berrien Springs High School 1 Lakeshore Middle School Lakeshore High School Christ Lutheran School Hollywood Elementary Roosevelt Elementary Berrien Springs Middle School 1 St. Paul's Lutheran School Stewart Elementary Lighthouse Education Center Blossomland Learning Center Bridgman High School Buchanan High School F.C. Reed Middle School Buchanan Middle School Brookview School Brown Elementary E. P. Clark Elementary Grace Lutheran School Great Lakes Montessori School Lake Michigan Catholic Elementary School Coloma High School Lincoln Elementary Michigan Lutheran High School North Lincoln School St. Joseph Senior High School Trinity Lutheran School (St.Joseph)Upton Middle School River School Lybrook Elementary School Chikaming Elementary School River Valley Middle/High School New Buffalo High School Trinity Lutheran School (Sawyer)Bridgman Elementary School Ottawa Elementary School 1. Host School is located within the EPZ.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-4. Special Facility Transit Demand 1 Woodland Terrace Bridgman 90 84 63 20 1 3 2 1 3 Bridgman Retirement Home Bridgman 20 11 9 2 0 1 1 0 3 Jordan's Nursing Home Bridgman 105 96 62 32 2 3 3 1 Lakeland Regional Medical St. Joseph 196 188 138 48 2 5 4 1 4 Golden Homes St. Joseph 80 78 48 29 1 2 2 1 4 Lakeland Continuing Care St. Joseph 111i 70 60 10 0 2 1 0 4 Caretel Inns of Royalton St. Joseph 117 112 83 28 132 1 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Andrews University 5 -Benton Harbor Schools (FST) 33 3 Berrien Springs Public Schools 21 Berrien RESA (FST) 5 Brandywine Community Schools 13 3 2 --Bridgman Public Schools 6 3 1 --Buchanan Community Schools 10 7 3 --Coloma Schools 14 3 2 --Eau Claire Public Schools 10 3 ---Galien Township Schools 4 1 Lakeshore Public Schools 12 7 1 --New Buffalo Schools 7 3 1 --Niles Community Schools (FST) 46 -River Valley School District 9 4 1 --St Joseph Public Schools 17 4 ---Watervliet Schools 6 2 2 --Medic 1 ----1 South Haven Township Fire Department

-- 1 Lakeland Continuing Care ---10 Caretel Inns of Royalton -1 1 -Golden Hones -Jordan's Nursing Home --10 Woodland Terrace ---Medical Facilitie (Table 8-4): 19 -15 .5 Transit-Dependent Population 74 ---(Tble 8-10): Honbun pcilNed Scto .5: 510 1 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions Alternative Education Center Same location as host school.I Rve Vale Hgh chol634, 334, 247, 255, 771, 256, 254, 147, 146, 13 1 RverValeyMidleSchol634, 334, 247, 255, 771, 256, 254, 147, 146, 13 770, 199, 198, 200, 29, 28, 15, 586, 585, 16, 2 Trinity Lutheran School 1,18 4 14, 148, 149 3 Fair Plain Middle School 285, 335, 386, 387 4 Gifted and Talented Academy 284, 403, 285, 335, 386, 387 5 Fairplain Northeast Learning Academy 285, 335, 386, 387 6 Fairplain West 286, 285, 335, 386, 387 7 Brookview School 404, 286, 285, 335, 386, 387 767, 216, 217, 219, 221, 668, 224, 227, 620, 621, 787, 622, 623, 624, 625, 626 9 F.C. Reed Middle School 769, 768, 665, 668, 224, 227, 620, 621, 787, 622, 623, 624, 625, 626 216, 217, 219, 740, 672, 560, 669, 726, 670, 727, 671, 617, 226, 782, 315, 482 208, 211, 511, 512, 513, 514, 49, 50, 574, 51, 11 Lakeshore High School 97, 106, 98, 641, 52, 129, 130 12 Lakeshore Middle School 728, 208, 211, 511, 512, 513, 514, 49, 50, 574, 51, 97, 106, 98, 641, 52, 129, 130 512, 513, 514, 49, 50, 574, 51, 97, 106, 98, 13 Hollywood Elementary64,5,1913 641, 52, 129, 130 728, 208, 211, 511, 512, 513, 514, 49, 50, 14 Lakeshore Roosevelt Elementary 574, 51, 97, 106, 98, 641, 52, 129, 130 644, 174, 271, 522, 454, 457, 455, 47, 92, 15 Stewart Elementary 819, 643, 95, 48, 722, 96, 514, 49, 50, 574, 51, 97, 106, 98, 641, 52, 129, 130 Transit Dependent Bus route for PAA 644, 174, 271, 522, 454, 457, 455, 47, 92, 15 4B 819, 643, 95, 48, 722, 96, 514, 49, 50, 574, 51, 97, 106, 98, 641, 52, 129, 130 16 Christ Lutheran School 271, 269, 521, 272, 458, 276, 722, 96, 514, 49, 50, 574, 51, 97, 106, 98, 641, 52, 129, 130 17 St. Paul's Lutheran School 195, 728, 208, 211, 511, 512, 513, 514, 49, 50, 574, 51, 97, 106, 98, 641, 52, 129, 130 18 River School 413, 414, 415, 416, 507, 508, 417, 484 637, 198, 200, 29, 28, 15, 586, 585, 16, 14, 20 Chikaming Elementary School 18 4 148, 149 22 St Joseph's High School 365, 436, 427, 337, 391, 830, 343 23 Upton Middle School 454, 347, 734, 456, 460, 69, 70, 67, 76, 68, 41, 42, 87, 86, 88, 43, 83, 60 363, 441, 409, 364, 365, 436, 427, 337, 391, 24 Brown Elementary 80 4 830, 343 455, 47, 459, 460, 69, 70, 67, 76, 68, 41, 42, 25 E.P. Clark Elementary 87, 86, 88, 43, 83, 60 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Nube Decrpto Boundary 26 Lincoln Elementary 432, 351, 794, 405, 348 27 North Lincoln School 742, 346, 66, 73, 69, 70, 67, 76, 68, 41, 42, 87, 86, 88, 43, 83, 60 28 Grace Lutheran School 457, 455, 47, 459, 460, 69, 70, 67, 76, 68, 41, 42, 87, 86, 88, 43, 83, 60 29 Great Lakes Montessori School 66, 73, 69, 70, 67, 76, 68, 41, 42, 87, 86, 88, 43, 83, 60 30 Michigan Lutheran High School 458, 276, 643, 819, 94, 45, 153, 44, 82, 89, 91, 88, 43, 83, 60 31 Lake Michigan Catholic 463, 461, 462, 828, 827, 338, 430, 337, 391, 830, 343 32 Trinity Lutheran School 337, 391, 830, 343 454, 457, 455, 47, 92, 819, 643, 95, 48, 722, 33 Lighthouse Education Center 96, 514, 49, 50, 574, 51, 97, 106, 98, 641, 52, 129, 130 193, 192, 638, 191, 190, 774, 180, 223, 214, 41 Transit Dependent Bus route for PAA 1 767,79,68,166,166, 767, 769, 768, 665, 666, 193, 194, 196, 173, 170, 274, 165, 164, 729, 42 Transit Dependent Bus route for PAA 2 19,174,486,1 33, 169, 174, 438, 362, 363, 223, 175, 176, 186, 184, 177, 178, 179, 234, 43 Transit Dependent Bus route for PAA 3 70 , 166,123 , 1 ,120 , 704, 664, 231, 661, 202, Transit Dependent Bus route for PAA 438, 362, 363, 441, 409, 364, 365, 436, 427, 4A 337, 391, 830, 343 Transit Dependent Bus route for PAA 664, 231, 661, 202, 230, 232, 679, 681, 233, 5A 235, 236, 237, 238 Transit Dependent Bus route for PAA 792, 741, 222, 451, 449, 765, 244, 760, 130, 5B 245 191, 190, 774, 180, 223, 175, 176, 186, 184, Woodland Terrace 183, 185, 187, 31, 30, 38, 197, 205, 204, 29, 50 28, 15, 586, 585, 16, 14, 148, 149, 13 665, 666, 203, 770, 199, 198, 200, 29, 28, 15, 51 Bridgman 2 Retirement Home 586, 585, 16, 14, 148, 149, 13 175, 176, 186, 184, 183, 185, 187, 31, 30, 38, Jordan's Nursing Home 197, 205, 204, 29, 28, 15, 586, 585, 16, 14, 52 148, 149, 13 53 Lakeland Regional Medical Center 650, 344, 432, 351, 794, 405, 348 459, 460, 69, 70, 67, 76, 68, 41, 42, 87, 86, 88, Golden Homes 4,8,6 54 43, 83, 60 459, 460, 69, 70, 67, 76, 68, 41, 42, 87, 86, 88, Caretel Inns of Royalton 4,8,6 54 43, 83, 60 55 Lakeland Continuing Care 441, 409, 364, 365, 436, 427, 337, 391, 830 56 Andrews Academy 443, 52, 129, 130, 760, 244 56 Andrews University 443, 52, 129, 130, 760, 244 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Table 8-7. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Alternative Education Center 1'2 -----Andrews Academy 1 90 15 1.6 52.4 2 Andrews University' 90 15 2.4 52.4 3 Bridgman Elementary School 90 15 11.7 50.7 14 Bridgman High School 90 15 11.8 44.3 16 Brookview School 90 15 2.2 29.3 5 Brown Elementary 90 15 3.7 9.2 25 Chikaming Elementary School 90 15 6.6 55.0 8 Christ Lutheran School 1 90 15 12.0 31.1 24 E. P. Clark Elementary 90 15 4.5 19.1 15 F.C. Reed Middle School 90 15 11.3 48.9 14 Fair Plain Middle School 90 15 1.1 28.7 3 Fairplain West 90 15 1.8 28.3 4 Gifted and Talented Academy 90 15 2.2 31.6 5 Grace Lutheran School 90 15 4.7 20.5 14 Great Lakes Montessori School 90 15 3.4 16.5 13 Hollywood Elementary 1 90 15 8.7 29.2 18 Lake Michigan Catholic 90 15 3.4 21.2 10 Lakeshore Middle School 1 90 15 11.3 30.2 23 Lakeshore Roosevelt Elementary 1 90 15 11.3 30.2 23 Lakeshore High School 1 90 15 10.8 30.0 22 Lighthouse Education Center 1 90 15 9.5 52.4 11 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.8 0.2 12.3 3.6 0.0 10.2 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 10.2 10.2 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 5 6 1 14 4 0 12 5 1 1 1 12 12 0 14 0 0 0 0 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1

1. Host School is within the EPZ 2. The Host School for Alternative Education Center is located within the same building.8-22 KID Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-8. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Alternative Education Center 1'2 Andrews Academy' 100 20 1.6 42.5 3 Andrews University' 100 20 2.4 42.5 4 Bridgman Elementary School 100 20 11.7 45.9 16 Bridgman High School 100 20 11.8 40.1 18 Brookview School 100 20 2.2 27.1 5 Brown Elementary 100 20 3.7 7.2 31 Chikaming Elementary School 100 20 6.6 50.0 8 Christ Lutheran School' 100 20 12.0 28.3 26 E. P. Clark Elementary 100 20 4.5 15.0 19 F.C. Reed Middle School 100 20 11.3 43.1 16 Fair Plain Middle School 100 20 1.1 26.2 3 Fairplain West 100 20 1.8 26.2 5 Gifted and Talented Academy 100 20 2.2 28.8 5 Grace Lutheran School 100 20 4.7 16.3 18 Great Lakes Montessori School 100 20 3.4 13.3 16 Hollywood Elementary' 100 20 8.7 26.3 20 Lake Michigan Catholic 100 20 3.4 19.7 11 Lakeshore Middle School' 100 20 11.3 27.6 25 Lakeshore Roosevelt Elementary' 100 20 11.3 27.6 25 Lakeshore High School' 100 20 10.8 27.4 24 Lighthouse Education Center' 100 20 9.5 42.5 14 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.8 0.2 12.3 3.6 0.0 10.2 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 10.2 10.2 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 6 6 1 15 5 0 13 5 1 1 1 13 13 0 15 0 0 0 0 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 0 3. Host School is within the EPZ 4. The Host School for Alternative Education Center is located within the same building.8-24 KID Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Table 8-9. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Alternative Education Center 1'2 ----Andrews Academy' 110 25 1.6 27.1 4 Andrews University 1 110 25 2.4 27.1 6 Bridgman Elementary School 110 25 11.7 40.8 18 Bridgman High School 110 25 11.8 35.5 20 Brookview School 110 25 2.2 24.1 6 Brown Elementary 110 25 3.7 5.1 44 Chikaming Elementary School 110 25 6.6 45.0 9 Christ Lutheran School 1 110 25 12.0 35.4 21 E. P. Clark Elementary 110 25 4.5 10.1 27 F.C. Reed Middle School 110 25 11.3 38.7 18 Fair Plain Middle School 110 25 1.1 23.2 3 Fairplain West 110 25 1.8 23.3 5 Gifted and Talented Academy 110 25 2.2 25.5 6 Grace Lutheran School 110 25 4.7 11.1 26 Great Lakes Montessori School 110 25 3.4 8.8 23 Hollywood Elementary 1 110 25 8.7 37.6 14 Lake Michigan Catholic 110 25 3.4 11.1 19 Lakeshore Middle School' 110 25 11.3 34.9 20 Lakeshore Roosevelt Elementary' 110 25 11.3 34.9 20 Lakeshore High School 1 110 25 10.8 36.0 18 Lighthouse Education Center 1 110 25 9.5 27.1 21 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.8 0.2 12.3 3.6 0.0 10.2 3.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 10.2 10.2 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 6 7 1 17 5 0 14 6 1 1 1 14 14 0 17 0 0 0 0 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1

5. Host School is within the EPZ 6. The Host School for Alternative Education Center is located within the same building.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes 41 z PAA 1 to New Buttalo High School via New Troy and Three Oaks 16.7 42 16 PAA 2 to Coloma High School via Red Arrow Hwy/Lakeshore Dr/Main St 8.1 43 6 PAA 3 to New Buffalo High School via Red Arrow Hwy and Three Oaks Rd 8.7 44 17 PAA 4 to Coloma High School via Lakeshore Dr/Main St 4.5 15 17 PAA 4 to Coloma High School via SR 139, Niles Rd, and Napier Ave 12.2 46 8 PAA 5 to New Buffalo High School via Red Arrow Hwy 7.1 47 8 PAA 5 to Brandywine High School via E Shawnee Rd and Ferry St 6.4 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain 1 130 16.7 147.0 21 40 12.3 15 5 10 35 40 41 1 150 16.7 I 47.6 21 40 8 130 8.1 12.1 40 40 42 8 150 8.1 23.6 20 40 3 130 8.7 41.2 13 40 43 3 150 8.7 42.4 12 40 8 130 4.5 8.5 32 40 44 44____ 8 150 4.5 19.4 14 40 8 130 12.2 33.0 22 40 15 9 150 12.2 39.4 19 40 4 130 7.1 42.1 10 40 4 6 4574 90______ 4 150 71 4. 0 4 12.3 15 5 10 35 40 12.3 15 5 10 28 40 12.3 15 5 10 28 40 3.6 4 5 10 17 40 3.6 4 5 10 16 40 12.3 15 5 10 22 40 12.3 15 5 10 22 40 10.2 12 5 10 30 40 10.2 12 5 10 30 40 3.0 4 5 10 13 40 3.0 4 5 10 14 40 13.0 16 5 10 23 40 4 130 6.4 I 50.0 8 40 47 t + I +/-4 150 6.4 1 50.0 Q An 13.0 16 5 10 An_____________

.1. S .J.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-14. Medical Facilities Single-Wave Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Ambulatory 90 1 63 5 1 Woodland Terrace Wheelchair bound 90 5 j 20 _ _5 Bedridden 90 15 1 5 Bridgman Ambulatory 90 1 9 5 1 Retirement Home Wheelchair bound 90 5 2 5 1 Jordan's Nursing Ambulatory 90 1 62 5 2 3 Home Wheelchair bound 90 5 32 5 2 Bedridden 90 15 2 5 2 Ambulatory 90 1 138 47 2:50 Lakeland Regional Medical Center Wheelchair bound 1 90 5 48 7 I2:55 Bedridden 90 15 2 47 2:50 Ambulatory 90 1 48 24 2:25 4 Golden Homes Wheelchair bound 90 5 29 5 2:50 Bedridden 90 15 1 17 2:05 Lakeland Ambulatory 90 1 60 39 2:25 Continuing Care Wheelchair bound 90 5 10 38 2:20 Caretel Inns of Ambulatory 90 1 83 20 1:55 4 Royalton Wheelchair bound 90 5 28 5 250 Bedridden 90 15 1 17 2:05 Average ET.: 2 2:25 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-15. Medical Facilities Singe-Wave Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain 1 Woodland Terrace Wheelchair bound 100 5 20 6 305 4 4 4-Bedridden 100 15 1 6 2:05 Bridgman Retirement Ambulatory 100 1 9 6 1:55 Home Wheelchair bound 100 5 2 6 2:00 Ambulatory 100 1 62 6 2:20 3 Jordan's Nursing Home Wheelchair bound 100 5 32 6 305 Bedridden 100 15 2 6 2:20 Ambulatory 100 1 138 45 2:55 Lakeland Regional Ambulato..

Medical Center Wheelchair bound 100 5 48 8 3:05 Bedridden 100 15 2 45 2:55 Ambulatory 100 1 48 22 2:35 4 Golden Homes Wheelchair bound 100 5 29 7 3:05 Bedridden 100 15 1 45 2:40 Lakeland Continuing Ambulatory 100 1 60 47 2:45 Care Wheelchair bound 100 5 10 60 2:50 Ambulatory 100 1 83 21 2:05 4 Caretel Inns of Royalton Wheelchair bound 100 5 28 7 3:05 Bedridden 100 15 1 45 2:40... .ETE 3:05 AverageETE:

2:35 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-16. Medical Facilities Single-Wave Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Ambulatory 110 1 63 7 1 Woodland Terrace Wheelchair bound 110 5 1 20 1 _7 Bedridden 110 15 1 7 Bridgman Ambulatory 110 1 9 7 Retirement Home Wheelchair bound 110 5 2 7 Ambulatory 110 1 62 7 oaHome Wheelchair bound 110 5 32 7 Bedridden 110 15 2 7 Lakeland Regional Ambulatory 110 1 138 48 LMedical Center Wheelchair bound 110 5 48 10 Bedridden 110 15 2 48 Ambulatory 110 1 48 34 4 Golden Homes Wheelchair bound 110 5 29 7 Bedridden 110 15 1 115 Lakeland Ambulatory 110 1 60 86 Continuing Care Wheelchair bound 110 5 10 86 I Ambulatory 110 1 83 54 2:50 4 Caretel Inns of Royalton Wheelchair bound 110 5 28 7 13:15 Bedridden 110 15 1 115 4:00 Average ETE: 3:00 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-17. Medical Facilities Second-Wave Evacuation Time Estimate -Good Weather Bridgman Retirement Home Wheelchair bound 10.4 11 10 10 21 5 2:45 Ambulatory 10.4 11 30 10 41 5 345 Jordan's Nursing Wheelchair bound 10.4 11 75 10 86 5 6:00 Home Bedridden 10.4 11 30 10 41 5 3:45 Lakeland Ambulatory 10.4 11 30 10 41 7 4:30 4 Regional Wheelchair bound 10.4 11 75 10 86 5 6:00 Medical Center Bedridden 10.4 11 30 10 41 7 4:30 Ambulatory 10.4 11 30 10 41 5 4:05 4 Golden Homes Wheelchair bound 10.4 11 75 10 86 5 6:00 Bedridden 10.4 11 15 10 26 5 3:10 Lakeland Ambulatory 10.4 11 15 10 26 8 3:35 Continuing Care Wheelchair bound 10.4 11 10 10 21 8 3:20 Ambulatory 10.4 11 2 10 13 13 2:45 4 Caretel Inns of Royalton Wheelchair bound 10.4 1 11 [ 75 1 10 86 1 5 [ 600 Bedridden 10.4 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-18. Medical Facilities Second-Wave Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Ambulatory 10.4 13 30 10 42 6 Woodland 1 Terrace Wheelchair bound 1 10.4 13 1 10 1 87 6 Bedridden 10.4 13 15 10 27 6 3 Bridgman Retirement Home Ambulatorv 10.4 13 9 10 21 4 4 4 4 .1.6 Wheelchair bound 10.4 13 10 10 22 6 1 Ambulatory 10.4 13 30 10 42 6 JaHome Wheelchair bound 10.4 13 75 10 87 6 Bedridden 10.4 13 30 10 42 6 Lakeland Ambulatory 10.4 13 30 10 42 8 4 Regional Medical Wheelchair bound 10.4 13 75 10 87 6 Center Bedridden 10.4 13 30 10 42 8 Ambulatory 10.4 13 30 10 42 6 4 Golden Homes Wheelchair bound 10.4 13 75 10 87 6 Bedridden 10.4 13 15 10 27 6 Lakeland Ambulatory 10.4 13 15 10 27 9 Continuing Care Wheelchair bound 10.4 13 10 10 22 9 Ambulatory 10.4 13 2 10 14 12 4 Caretel Inns of Royalton Wheelchair bound 1 10.4 1 13 75 [ 10 1 87 6 ,A 12 C: 8-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-19. Medical Facilities Second-Wave Evacuation Time Estimate -Snow Ambulatory 10.4 14 30 10 44 7 4:15 odHome Wheelchair bound 10.4 14 75 10 89 7 6:30 Bedridden 10.4 14 30 10 44 7 4:15 Lakeland Ambulatory 10.4 14 30 10 44 9 4:55 4 Regional Medical Wheelchair bound 10.4 14 75 10 89 7 6:30 Center Bedridden 10.4 14 30 10 44 9 4:55 Ambulatory 10.4 14 30 10 44 7 4:40 4 Golden Homes Wheelchair bound 10.4 14 75 10 89 7 6:30 Bedridden 10.4 14 15 10 29 7 5:15 Lakeland Ambulatory 10.4 14 15 10 29 10 4:50 Continuing Care Wheelchair bound 10.4 14 10 10 24 10 4:35 Caretel Inns of Ambulatory 10.4 14 2 10 16 7 3:35 Royalton Wheelchair bound 10.4 14 75 10 89 7 6:30 Bedridden 10.4 14 15 10 29 7 5:15 Average. jE, 4:50 8-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-20. Homebound Special Needs Persons Single-Wave Evacuation Time Estimates Normal 90 Buses 58 5 12 Rain 100 5 110 121 55 11 13 13 Snow 110 Normal 90 90 11 Wheelchair 103 10 11 Rain 100 5 100 50 13 Buses_______ ______ _____ ______ Snow 110 110 _ ______ 13 Normal 30 Ambulances 1 1 1 Rain 40 15 0 0 0 0 6 0:55 8 1:05 9 1:15 Snow 50 8-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table 8-21. Homebound Special Needs Persons Second-Wave Evacuation Time Estimates Buses 58 5 12 Normal Rain Snow 11 13 17 60 10 10 10 11 13 17 60 104 122 134 Normal Wheelchair 103 10 11 Rain Buses Snow 11 13 17 55 10 10 10 11 13 17 55 101 112 123 8:50 9:25 Ambulances 1 1 1 Normal Rain Snow 11 10 11 20 2:15 13 15 10 13 15 22 2:35 17 10 17 25 2:55 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1