ML19338G103

Vol 2 of Environ Rept Consisting of Amend 2

ML19338G103
Person / Time
Site:	Waterford
Issue date:	10/31/1980
From:	LOUISIANA POWER & LIGHT CO.
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ML19338G098	List: ML19338G097 ML19338G103
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ENVR-801031, NUDOCS 8010280447
Download: ML19338G103 (1000)

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{{#Wiki_filter:_- WSES 3 h ER LOUISIANA POWER & LIGHT CO. r._ WATERFORD 3ES UNIT No. 3

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          '                           ENVIRONMINTAL REPORT Ns _,/

AMENUMENT NO. 2 INSTRUCTION SHEET Each revised and new page bears the notation Amendment No. 2, (10/80) at the bottom of the page. Vertical bare with the number 2 have been useo in the margin of pages, as applicable, to indicate the locatt ou of the revision on the page. The following page removals and insertions should be made to incorporate Amendment No. 2 into the ER. INSERT REMOVE (M4ENDMENT NO. I PAGES) (EXISTING PAGES) Table of Contents Table of Contents 1-1/1-11 1-i/1-11 1- 111 /1-iv 1-111 5-iii/5-iv 5-iii/ 5-iv Chapter 1 Chapter 1 1-1/1-11 1-1/1-11 1-iii 1-111/l'iV n l T 1.1-1/1.1-2 1.1-1/1.1-2 \ ,' 1.1-3/1.1-4 1.1-3/1.1-4 1.1-5/1.1-6 1.1-5/1.1-6 1.1-7/1.1-8 1.1-7/1.1-8 1.1-9/1.1-10 1.1-9/1.1-10 1.1-11/1.1-12 1.1-11/1.1-12 1.1-13/1.1 *. '. 1.1-13/1.1-14 1.1-15/1.1-16 1.1-15/1.1-16 1.1-17/1.1-18' 1.1-17/1.1-18 T1.1-1 T1.1-1 T1.1-2 T1.1-2 T1.1-3 T1.1-3 T1.1-4 T1.1-4 T1.1-5 T1.1-5 T1.1-6 T1.1-6 T1.1-7 Gheets 1 thru 4) T1.1-7 (Sheets 1 thru 4) T1.1-8 (Sheets 1 thru 3) T1.1-8 (Sheets 1 thru 3) T1.1-9 (Sheets 1 thru 3) T1.1-9 (Sheets 1 thru 3) T1.1-10 (Sheets 1 thru 5) T1.1-10 (Sheets 1 thru 5) T1.1-11 (Sheets 1 thru 3) T1.1-11 (Sheets 1 thru 3) T1.1-12 (Sheets 1 thru 2) T1.1-12 (Sheets 1 th u 2) F1.1-4 F1.1-4 F1.1-5 F1.1-5 F1.1-6 F1.1-6 F1.1-7 _ 1,2-1 1.2-1 f~N i 1.3-1 1.3-1 ( s_- IS-1 Amendutnt No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER REMOVE INSERT (EXISTING PAGES) (AMENDMENT NO. 2 PAGES) Chapter 2 Chapter 2 2.6-1/2.6-2 2.6-1/2.6-2 2.6-3 2.6-3

 -                       2.6-4 T2.4-8 Sheet 1          T2.4-8 Sheet 1 T2.4-8 Sheet 2          T2.4-8 Sheet 2 F2.6-3                  F2.6-3 Chapter 3               Chapter 3 3.3-1/3.3-2             3.3-1/3.3-2 3.3-3                  3.3-3 T3.3-1 Sheet 1          T3.3-1 Sheet 1 T3.3-1 Sheet 2          T3.3-1 Sheet 2 F3.3-1                  F3.3-1 3.4-1/3.4-2            3.4-1/3.4-2 3.4-3/3.4-4            3.4-3/3.4-4 T3.4-1                  T3.4-1 T3.4-2                  T3.4-2 T3.5-6                 T3.5-6 T3.5-10                 T3.5-10 3.6-1/3.6-2             3.6-1/3.6-2 T3.6-1 Sheet 2          T3.6-1 Sheet 2 T3.6-2 Sheet 1          T3.6-2 Sheet 1 T3.6-2 Sheet 2          T3.6-2 Sheet 2 Chapter 4               Chapter 4 4.1-1/4.1-2             4.1-1/4.1-2 Chapter 5               Chapter 5 5-lii/5-iv             5-iii/5-iv l

5.1-5/5.1-6 5.1-5/5.1-6 5.1-7/5.1-8 5.1-7/5.1-8 l 5.1-9/5.1-10 5.1-9/5.1-10 l 5.1-11/5.1-12 5.1-11/5.1-12 l 5.1-13/5.1-14 5.1-13/5.1-14 5.1-15/5.1-16 5.1-15/5.1-16 5.1-17/5.1-18 5.1-17/5.1-18 ' 5.1-19/5.1-20 5.1-19/5.1-20 5.1-21/5.1-22 5.1-21/5.1-22 5.1-23 5.1-23 1

   -                       5.1-24/5.1-25                      l
    -                      5.1-26/5.1-27                      (

1 IS-2 Amendme nt No. 2, (10/80) l l,

l WSES 3 ER REMOVE INSERT E N STING PAGES) (AMENINENT NO. 2 PAGES) Chapter 5 (Cont'd) Chapter 5 (Cont'd) T5.1-5 T5.1-5 T5,1-6 T5.1-6 T5.1-7 Sheet 1 T5.1-7 Sheet 1 T5.1-7 Sheet 2 T5.1-7 Sheet 2 T5.2-2 T5.2-2 T5.2-3 T5.2-3 T5.2-4 T5.2-4 5.6-1/5.6-2 5.6-1/5.6-2 5.6-3/5.6-4 5.6-3/5.6-4 5.6-5 5.6-5 Chapter 6 Chapter 6 6.1.1-13/6.1.1-14 6.1.1-13/6.1.1-14 T6.1.1-4 T6.1.1-4 T6.1.1-6 Sheet 2 T6.1.1-c Sheet 2 T6.1.1-6 Sheet 4 T6.1.1-6 Sheet 4 Chapter 8 Chapter 8 j 8.1-1/8.1-2 8.1-1/8.1-2 8.1-3/8.1-4 8.1-3/8.1-4 8.1-5 8.1 5 T8.1-1 T8.1-1 8.2-1/8.2-2 8.2-1/8.2-2 8.2-3/8.2-4 8.2-3/8.2-4 T8.2-1 T8.2-1 T8.2-2 T8.2-2 Chapter 11 Chapter 11 i 11 1-1 11.1-1 Chapter 12 Chapter 12 T12.1-1 Sheet 1 T12.1-1 Sheet 1 APPENDICES

               -                                                                  Appendix 1-2*
               -                                                                  Appendix 2-6*
               -                                                                  Appendix 6-3*

i

• To be inserted into Volume 4.

IS-3 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER REMOVE INSERT (EXISTING PAGES) (AMENINENT NO. 2 PAGES) NRC Questions NRC Questions ** 301.44-1 301.45-1 301.46-1 301.47-1/3C1.47-2 T301.47-1 Sheet 1 of 3 I T301.47-1 Sheet 2 of 3  ! T301.47-1 Sheet 3 of 3 F301.47-1 Sheet 1 F301.47-1 Sheet 2

 **  Insert Volume 1 Response to NRC Questions O

l O IS-4 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER TABLE OF CONTENTS V('~'T CHAPTER 1: PURPOSE fage, 1.1-1 1.1 SYSTEM DEMAND AND RELIABILITY 1.

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Louisiana Power & Light Compang 1.1-1 1.1.1.1 1.1-2 1.1.2 DEMAND PROJECTIONS 1.1-2 1.1.2.1 Background Former Methodology f or Demand Forecast 1.1-2 1.1.2.2 Present Methodology for Demand Projections 1.1-3 1.1.2.3 1.1.2.4 Other Considerations in Assessing Demand Forecasts and the Scheduling of Commercial Operation 1.1-4 1.1-5 1.1.3 BENEFITS OF THE OPERATION OF WATERFORD 3 Economic Advantages of the Operation of Waterford 3 1.1- 5 [ 1.1.3.1 V) 1.1.3.2 System Reliability Advantages of the Operation of Waterford 3 1.1-7 1.1.4 RESERVE MARGINS 1.1-8 1.1.4.1 Introduction 1.1-8 1.1.4.2 Cj anges in Reserve Margin Criteria 1.1-8 1.1.4.3 LPat's Present Reserve Margin Criteria 1.1-10 Method of Scheduling Maintenance Outages 1.1-11 1.1.4.4 Ef fect of Interconnections of Reserves 1.1-11 i 1.1.4.5 Additional Factors Affecting Reserves 1.1-11 1.1.4.6 Conclusion 1.1-14 1.1.4.7 1.1-14 1.1.5 IAAD CHARACTERISTICS AND SYSTEM CAPACITY 1.1.5.1 Load Characteristics 1.1-14 h

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1-i Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) - Page 1.1. 5 . 2 System capacity 1.1-16 1.1.6 EXTERNAL SUPPORTING STUDIES 1.1-17 1.1.6.1 Relationship to Power Pool Reserve Criterion 1.1-17 1.1.6.2 Studies of Area Power Supply for 1983 1.1-17 1 1-17 2 1.1. 6 . 3 Regional Reserves for 1983 REFERENCES 1.1-18 TABLES AND FIGURES FOR SECTION 1.1 1.2 OTHER OBJECTIVES 1.2-1 1.3 CONSEQUENCES OF DELAY 1.3-1 1.3.1 ECONOMIC PENALTIES OF A DELAY 1.3-1 O 0 1-ii Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

i a l WSES 3 ER LIST OF TABLES CHAPTER 1: PURPOSE TABLE TITLE 1.1-1 Members of the Southwest Power Pool 1.1-2 Comparison of Annual Forecasted Peaks vs Actual Peaks for LP&L (1966-1977) 1.1-3 LP&L: Annual Capability, Load, and Energy History l 1.1-4 LP&L: Annual Load and Capability Forecast 1980-1986 1.1-5 Middle South System: Annual Capability, Load, and Energy History ) 1.1-6 Middle South System: Annual Load and Capability Forecast 1980-1986 2 1.1-7 SWPP: Annual Load and Capability Forecast, Summary 1965-1984 1.1-8 LP&L: Monthly Load and Capability Forecast 1982-1983 and 1984 1.1-9 Middle South System: Monthly Load and Capability Forecast-1982, 1983, and 1984 1.1-10 Middle South System, Generating Capacity as of April, 1970 1.1-11 Middle South System, Actual Generating Capacity Changes, April 1970-1979 1.1-12 Middle South System, Generating Capacity Changes, 1980-1986 6

 \ _ ,/                                        1-iii                                     Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 O ER LTST OF FIGURES CHAPTER 1: PURPOSE l FIGURE TITLE 1.1-1 Map of LP&L Facilities

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1.1-2 Map of MSU Facilities 1.1-3 Map of SWPP Facilities 1.1-4 MSU and LP&L Load and Capacity 1.1-5 LP&L 1983 Load Duration Curve 1.1-6 MSU 1983 Load Duration Curve i O 1-iv Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

1 WSES 3 ER l TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) CHAPTER 5: EFFECTS OF OPERATION ' P, age, 5.6.2.4 Plant Operation and Maintenance Noise Impact 5.6-4 REFERENCES 5.6-5 TABLES AND FIGURES FOR SECTION 5.6 5./ RESOURCES COMMITTED 5.7-1 5.7.1 MATERIALS CONSUMED IN THE NUCLEAR REACTION PROCESS 5.7-1 5.7.2 OTHER RESOURCES COMMITTED DUE TO PLANT OPERATION 5.7-1 5.7.2.1 Land Resources 5.7-1 5.7.2.2 Water Resources 5.7-2 5.7.2.3 Aquatic Resources 5.7-2 REFERENCES 5.7-4 5.8 DECOMM7' 3IONING AND DISHANTLING 5.8-1

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5.8.1 DEC04MISSIONING ALTERNATIVES 5.8-1 5.8.2 COST OF DECOMMISSIONING 5.8-2 5.8.3 ENVIRONHENTAL D4 PACT OF DECOMMISSIONING "2-REFERENCES 5.8-4 I TABLES FOR SECTION 5.8 5-111 l

WSES 3 ER LIST OF TABLES CilAPTER 5: EFFECTS OF OPERATION TABLE TITLE 5.1-1 Input and Existing Conditions for Thermal Analysis - Typical Low Flow Conditions of about 205,000 CFS 2 and Extreme Low Flow Condition of 100,000 CFS l 5.1-2 Input Conditions for Thermal Plumes Measured in Previous Sarveys of the Waterford 1 and 2 and Little Gypsy Discharges 5.1-3 Characteristics of Thermal Plumes Measured in Previous Surveys of the Waterford 1 and 2 and Little Gypsy Discharges l 5.1-4 Combined Thermal Impacts of Waterford 1, 2 and 3 and Little  ! Gypsy Discharges 5.1-5 Location, Design and Operation of Intakes at the Eleven Study Stations and at Waterford 3 5.1-6 Estimated Number of Organisms to be Impinged at Waterford 3 2 5.1-7 Economic Costs of Predicted Impingement by Waterford 3 y 5.1-8 Percent of Mississippi River Flow Entrained by Waterford 3 5.1-9 Percent of Mississippi River Flows Entrained by Water-ford 1, 2 and 3 and Little Gypsy 5.1-10 Contribution of Cyanophyta to the Phytoplankton Community 5.2-1 daseous Effluent Concentrations Contributed to the Be;kground 5.2-2 Relative Noble Gas Concentrations 5.2-3 Relative Radioiodine and Particulate Concentrations 5.2-4 Relative Deposition for Radioiodine and Particulates 5.2-a Padionuclide Concentrations f rom Liquid 6ffluents from Routine Operation of Waterford 3 5.2-6 Annual Dose to diota Other than Man from Liquid Effluents from Waterford 3 5.2-7 Estimated Year 2000 Food Production 5.2-8 Annual Population-Integrated Doses (Man-Rem) from Waterford 3 5.2-9 Compliance with 10 CFR 50, Appendix I O 5-iv Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER s,,,/ . TABLE OF CONTENTS f ! CHAPTER 1: PURPOSE M 1.1 SYSTEM DEMAND AND RELIABILITY 1.1-1 1.

1.1 INTRODUCTION

1.1.1.1 Louisiana Power & Light Company 1.1-1 1.1.2 DEMAND PROJECTIONS 1.1-2 1.1.2.1 Background 1.1-2 i 1.1.2.2 Former Methodology for Demand Forecast 1.1-2 1.1.2.3' Present Methodology for Demand Projections 1.1-3 ' l.1.2.4 Other Considerations in Assessing Demand Forecasts and the Scheduling of Commercial Operation 1.1-4 1.1.3 BENEFITS OF THE OPERATION OF WATERFORD 3 1.1-5 1.1.3.1 Economic Advantages of the Operation of Waterford 3 1.1-5 1.1.3.2 System Reliability Advantages of the Operation of Waterford 3 1.1-7 1.1.4 RESERVE MARGINS 1.1-8 1.1.4.1 Introduction 1.1-8 1.1.4.2 Changes in Reserve Margin Criteria 1.1-8 1.1.4.3 LP&L's-Present Reserve Margin Criteria 1.1-10 1.1.4.4 Method of Scheduling Maintenance Outages 1.1-11 1.1.4. 5 - Ef fect of Interconnections of Reserves 1.1-11 1.1.4.6 Additional Factors Affecting Reserves 1.1-11 1.1.4.7 Conclusion 1.1-14 1.1.5 LOAD CHARACTERISTICS AND SYSTEM CAPACITY 1.1-14

   /'             l.1.5.1                         Load Characteristics                                                                                              1.1-14 1-i                                                                     Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

1 WSES 3 ER TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) - Page 1.1.$.2 System Car acity 1.1-16 1.1.6 EXTERNAL SUPPORTING STUDIES 1.1-17 1.1. 6 .1 Rela tion ship to Power Pool Reserve Criterion 1.1-17 1.1.6.2 Studies of Area Power Supply for 1983 1.1-17 1.1-17 2 1.1. 6 . 3 Regional Reserves for 1983 REFERENCES 1.1-18 TABLES AND FIGURES FOR SECTION 1.1 1.2 OTHER OBJECTIVES _l.2-1 1.3 CONSEQUENCES OF DELAY 1.3-1 < l.3.1 ECONOMIC PENALTIES OF A DELAY 1.3-1 9 i i O 1-ii Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER __-) . I LIST OF TABLES CHAPTER 1: PURPOSE t TABLE TITLE I l l 1.1-1 Members of the Southwest Power Pool 1.1-2 Comparison of Annual Forecasted Peaks vs Actual Peaks for LP&L (1966-1977) 1.1-3 LP&L: Annual Capability, Load, and Energy History 1.1-4 LP&L: Annual Load and Capability Forecast 1980-1986 I 1.1-5 Middle South System: Annual Capability, Load, and Energy History 1.1-6 Middle South System: Annual Load and Capability Forecast O'- 1980-1986 2 1.1-7 SWPP: Annual Load and Capability Forecast, Summary 1965-1984 1.1-8 LP&L: Monthly Load and Capability Forecast 1982-1983 and 1984 1.1-9 Middle South System: Monthly Load and Capability Forecast-1982, 1983, and 1984

 /        1.1 Middle South System, Generating Capacity as of April, 1970 1.1- 11  Middle South System, Actual Cenerating Capacity Changes, April 1970-1979 1.1-12    Middle South System, Generating Capacity Changes, 1980-1986 l-iii               Amendnent No. 2, (10/80)
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WSES 3 ER LIST OF FIGURES O' CHAPTER 1: PURPO SE l l l 1 FIGURE TITLE l 1.1-1 Map of LP&L Facilities l 1.1-2 Map of MSU Facilities - 1.1-3 Map of SWPP Facilities 1.1-4 MSU and LP&L Load and Capacity 1.1-5 LP&L 1983 Load Duration Curve 2 1.1-6 MSU 1983 Load Duration Curve O 1-iv Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER f' ( ) 1.1 SYSTEM DEMAND AND RELIABILITY \,,) 1.

1.1 INTRODUCTION

In 1970, the applicant, Louisiana Power & Light Company (LP&L), determined that additional electric generating capacity would be needed to meet its forecast 1977 peak system load. In order to satisfy this need, LP&L announced plans, in September 1970, to construct a nuclear generating station. The station, named Waterford Steam Electric Generating Station Unit No. 3, and called Waterford 3 in this report, is located on the Mississippi River in St Charles Parish, near Taft, Louisiana. In 1972 LP&L prepared a Construction Permit Environmental Report (CP-ER) as part of its application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the construction permit. NRC granted LP&L a 2 construction permit (NRC Docket No. 50-382) for Waterford 3 in November,1974. LP&L has now prepared this Environmental Report as part of an application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for an Operating License for Waterford 3. The granting of a Construction Permit approved both the site location and the basic station design, on the basis of safety criteria and environmental considerations and granted permission to proceed with construction, which LP&L promptly did. In comparison, the analysis conducted for the operating license, contained in this report, recognizes the completion of these earlier decisions. Therefore, at this stage of construction (more than 80% complete), the analysis herein addresses only the need for a timely operation of Waterford 3. g ) 1.1.1.1 Louisiana Power & Light Company ses' LP&L is an investor-owned utility serving large portions of Northern and Southeastern Louisiana. LP&L supplies electric service to meet the needs of s approximately 500,000 customers (approximately 1,345,000 people as of January 1,1978) within an area of approximately 19,500 square miles located in 46 of Louisiana's 64 parishes (counties). Figure 1.1-1 shows the area served by LP&L. LP&L is an operating subsidiary of Middle South Utilities, Inc. (MSU), a holding ccmpany which owns four other operating companies; a service company, Middle South Services, Inc. (MSS); and an electric generating company, Middle South 2nergy, Inc. (MSEI). MSEI owns the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station (NRC Docket Nos. 50-416 and 50-417). The five operating companies are Arkansas Power & Light Company ( AP&L), Arkansas-Missouri Power Company (Ark-Mo), Louisiana Power & Light Company (LP&L) Mississippi Power & Light Company (MP&L), and New Orleans Public Service Inc. (N0 PSI). Figure 1.1-2 shows a map of the MSU System. Arkansas-Missouri Power Company was added to the MSU Systen' in 1971. The other four operating companies have provided power generation and transmission facilities as an integrated electrical system for more than forty years. These latter four companies also own a fuel management company, System Fuels, Inc. ('~')l Louisisana Power & Light Company, together with the other four Middle South operating companies, are members of the Southwest Power Pool (SWPP), (d 1.1-1 A 'ndment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER Figure 1.1-3 shows the SWPP facilities. The forty-one entities who are members of the SWPP are listed in Table 1.1-1. The SWPP is one of the councils of the National Electric Reliability Council and provides for coordination and planning among its members and for the setting of minimum standards to assure a high degree of reliability of electric service. LP&L is also a member of the South Central Electric Companies (SCEC), an eleven member utility group organized for the purpose of exchanging diversity power with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). 1.1.2 DEMAND PROJECTIONS 1.1.2.1 Background The late 1960's and the early 1970's was the period during which LP&L undertook the planning for the construction and operation of Waterford 3. Over this period - culminating in the receipt of the Construction Permit in November, 1974 - the planning bases used were substantially different than towards the end of the 1970's. Prior to the recession period of the early 1970's, the load growth in the LP&L system exceeded 10 percent per year. The primary boiler fuel in LP&L's system was natural gas and long term natural gas cont . cts were negotrited for each new power generating unit. During this period, the construction time for large generating units was typically less than 5 years. These planning factors were such that in Amendment No. 2 to the Waterford 3 Construction Permit Environmental Report, dated August, 1972, LP&L noted that "Waterford 3 was scheduled for commercial operation in January,1977 to provide the generating capacity to meet the projected increase in demand". 2 During the intervening years of construction since this demand projection was made, much has changed with respect to the availability and prices of fuels employed in the production of electricity, the growth in power demand, the prevailing economic conditions and the construction period for new power generating stations. For example, during the period 1973 to 1975, the annual growth in power demand decreased to 6 percent. This decrease was probably due to the economic recession in the area which LP&L serves and the nation as a whole. For the years 1976 and 1977, the annual growth in demand within the LP&L system was once again 10 percent. In addition, during these years the construction period for large power plancs jumped to approximately 10 years and long term natural gas contracts were very difficult to obtain. Over the same period, the price of fuel oil increased at a very rapid pace. These factors became increasingly influential to predictions of power demand, and consequently to the method LP&L and MSU used to forecast demand. 1.1.2.2 Former Methodology for ?'2and Forecast During the period in which LP&L was initially planning Waterford 3's construction and operation, LP&L's methodology for developing the peak forecast included the following steps: An energy forecast was developed from the individual forecasts of the industrial, residential, and commercial sections of LP&L's Consumer Service Department. The energy forecasts were 1.1-2 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

i WSES 3 ER j developed by the managers of each of these sections based on their knowledge i g of past history and their judgment of the growth potential of the area LP&L  ; serves. To their forecasts were added system losses in order to project a i i total internal kWh scales for LP&L. An estin. ate of the future annual load factors for. LP&b was then developed based on LP&L's judgment of the potential I in the area it serves and the social and economic conditions which would i prevail during the period being estimated. These load factors were then used i to em- srt the energy forecasts into pe s. demand estimates. The estimates

were based on average weather conditions with the assumption that if normal  ! veather conditions prevailed, the estimate would be accurate. Table 1.1-2 j compares the forecast estimate with the actual maximum load which occurred in i the years 1966-1977. In general, this forecasting methodology proved to be l very effective in predicting future load energy requirements for LP&L during this period, particularly during more stable economic conditions. At the time of the initial submittal of this OLER i.e. September 1978, the peak power demand was again forecasted. This forecast utilized the methodology described above taking into consideration the economic recession ! of the mid-1970's and indicated that there existed a need for the power j generating capacity to be supplied by Waterford 3 in the summer of 1982. (As 1 a result of NRC licensing delays and construction schedule modifications, j Waterford 3 is now planned to be available for the summer peak power demand peric,d of 1983). t It was becoming clear to LP&L and MSU that this forec.asting methodology was quite limited in its ability to incorporate an increasingly complex economic j l O- and social environment in the prediction of electrical energy requirements. Developments.such as the 1974 and 1979 oil price increases and ensuing economic downturns ir.dicated that other forecasting methodologies would be necessary to predict future energy requirements under unstable conditions. In order to account for these conditions, LP&L developed jointly with Data . Resources Incorporatsd and Middle South Services a new econometric based load forecasting system. This forecasting system is described in detail in the l following section. t

1.1.2.3 Present Methodology for Demand Projection 2 In order to accurately forecast peak power demands for the economic conditions

which have evolved since 'the mid-1970's, LP&L has refined their forecast 4

methodology and developed an econometric model. The model is comprised of a set of analytical and structural models designed to provide a forecast of i megawatt hour (MWH) consumption by class of service and megawatt peak demand. Three models comprise the system. The first is an economic and demographic ' model of the area LP&L services; the product of this model is an outlook for the local economy. The second is a set of model components that translare the outlook for the economy, assumptions concerning local weather conditions, l energy prices, energy supply constraints and technological factors, into the expected future consumption of electricity by the major user classes: ~ j i residential, commercial, industrial and other. The third model within the system calculates.the expected peak demand based on the contribution to peak demand of the weather sensitive components and the base load requirements of the user classes. t i 1.1-3 Amendment No. 2, (10/80) l 1 _. - - _ - . . - - - - - -- .- - - .-_-_. - - - --- - - - . - - ._--I

WSES 3 ER The parameters of these structural models are determined both through the use of econometric techniques and by incorporating the results of engineering studies and surveys of the different customer classes. The predominant econometric technique utilized is ordinary least squares regression. A forecast is obtained from the LP&L Load Forecasting System in the following manner: First, the necessary input assumptions on the U.S. macro-economic outlook, local weather conditions, energy prices, energy supply and technological factors are developed. These assumptions are reviewed for consistency. Second, the load forecasting system is solved cased upon these inputs. Next the output of each of the model components is reviewed. Finally, the output is adjusted to account for ef fects to the model's i equations from factors not having suf ficient historic information to form a I basis to mathematically project their future influence. In all cases, judgment and information available through field surveys, engineering studies, and other exogenous studies are incorporated into the final forecast. Thus the forecast is not simply an extrapolation of the econometric equations in the system. The forecast is based on all relevant information at hand. , Tne system is designed to provide LP&L with the necessary means to utdertake a structural analysis of the area it serves and its future load requirements. The structural approach is considered crucial in analyzing these future requirements. It allows the forecaster to identify the underlying determinants and assess their future impact on load within a consistent and systematic fr.amework. For example, the model identifies the current and

  .uture saturation of major residential appliances within the service area.                                                             It identifies the impact of the growth in per capita income, prices, etc. on                                                                 2 these saturations. At the same time the system realizes that a maximum saturation (100%) exists. Thus'by explicitly identifying these end-uses and their growth limits, the model properly accounts for the fact that once saturated, the impact of 'these appliances on residential usage per customer is limited. It is this structural design that provides the user with a well defined tool for forecasting analysis.

A detailed description of the model is contained in Appendix l-2 of this document. 1.1.2.3 Other Considerations in Assessing Demand Forecasts and the Schedi ling of Commercial Operation Information concerning the demand projection methodology and its forecast has been included in this document for purposes of information and to satisfy the format requirements of NRC Regulatory Guide 4.2, Revision 2. In the case of Waterford 3, the demand forecast done in the early 1970's was the basis of scheduling construction and operation. Once the Construction Permit was approved in 1974 and construction initiated, the feasibility and economics of the construction schedule and process, as well as the external influence of procedures for operating license approval, l are the significant factors affecting the date of commercial operation. The re fore , in this Operating License Environmental Report, the focus of the analysis in this chapter is the benefits that would be derived from the timely operation of Waterford 3. 1.1-4 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER Oy ; 1.1.3 BENEFITS OF THE OPERATION OF WATERFORD 3 (J This section describes the advantages that will accrue to LP&L's customers by the timely operation of Waterford 3. These result directly from the provision of 1104 MWe (net) to the areas served by LP&L and MSU from this nuclear fueled station, and can be categorized into two types: cost savings to LP&L ratepayers, and an increase in the system reliability through generating capacity availability from using an alternative fuel. 1.1.3.1 Economic Advantages of the Operation of W+terford Since all of LP&L's presently available generating capacity utilizes either oil or natural gas and because the cost of these fuels has increased significantly since Waterford 3 was first planned, and is expected to continue to increase into the 1980's and beycnd, it can be shown that a primary benefit of a 1983 commercial operation date of Waterford 3 will be a very substantial economic gain to LP&L's customers in the form of reduced fuel expense. LP&L, as a part of the MSU System, operates under economic dispatch, so that the delivered incremental cost of all energy sources, whether generated or purchased, is as low as possible for each hour. This policy will allow a reduction of the use of generation dependent on high cost gas and fuel oil, by relying on the nuclear-fueled Waterford 3. The resultant cost savings to LP&L's customers is a benefit of Waterford 3 which can be quantified over the first ten years of operation. This period is s considered a suf ficient time period for the complete impact on customer bills 2 g/ to take e f fect. LP&L has performed a revenue requirements analysis which demonstrates this savings to their customers. This analysis also demonstrates the change in revenue requirements (i.e. the amount of money LP&L's customers must pay through their monthly bills) under various scenarios of the commercial operation date for Waterford 3. This unit is expected to be operational in An economic analysis of all the costs and benefits associated with a wrced rescheduling of this operational date has three components which would impact customer bills. These components are as follows:

1) Capacity equalization charges which LP&L pays to other MSU companies;

2) The reductior in fuel expense by utilizing the nuclear-fueled Waterford 3 in lieu of more costly gas and oil resources; and

3) The revenue requirement to provide a rate of return on the Waterford 3 plant when it enters LP&L's rate base.

The revenue requirement component is a cost increase to LP&L's customers; however, this is greatly offset by savings in capacity equalisation charges and fuci expenses. If the plant is delayed from operating for 24 months, the following economic benefit of the net effect of the three components on rN a 1.1-5 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER revenue requirements cannot be realize,d: Capacity equalization charge savings: $ 78,386,000 Fuel cost savings: $519,626,000 Return on rate base -335,330,000 TOTAL CUSTOMER SAVINGS: $262,682,000 Thus, over the ten year period, LP&L's customers would save $262,682,000 if the plant were in commercial operation in early 1983 instead of early 1985. If the operation of Waterford 3 were delayed six months (ie until later in 1983) the additional revenue requirements for the ten year period (1983 to 1992) would be $100,951,000. If the operation of Waterford 3 was delayed by one year, (ie until early 1984) the additional revenue requirements would be

$92,591,000. The lower net cost for a one year delay is the result of lower cost energy available to LP&L for the last six months of the one year delay.

Both of these estimates are based on an analysis of the impact of the three components on revenue requirements discussed previously. The origin of this savings can be shown in more detail by comparison of the cost of fuels that LP&L and MSU will utilize for each kilowatt-hour of electricity generated. 2 In the past, LP&L has been able to obtain long term natural gas contracts at relatively low cost because natural gas supplies were more abundant and the cost for this fuel was relatively low. Such long term contracts are no longer available to LP&L. In addition, since most of the contracts which LP&L presently holds are going to expire in the 1980's, gas will no longer be the cheap energy source that it was previously. Additional gas is sometimes available under short term contracts, bist this gas is priced at the oil equivalent price and cannot be considered a reliable supply. This is emphasized by noting that, based on present contracts from 1980 through 1985, 1600 MW of capacity will be fueled by long term gas contracts. In 1986 this capacity drops to 750 MW and in 1988 it further diminishes to 650 MW. This decreasing capacity must be replaced by capacity using another fuel, or natural gas under short term contract, if it is available for the interim until 1990. After 1990, use of natural gas in these power stations will be prohibited pursuant to the Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978. Due to the limited availability of natural gas at costs other than the oil equivalent costs, a forecast of fuel costs at LP&L's stations during the 9 1.1-6 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

9 4 WSES 3 ER

     ) 1980's would essentially be limited to the cost of oil and nuclear fuel as

_Q follows: ESTIMATED FUEL COST TO LP&L (MILLS /KWH) YEAR #6 Oil Nuclear Fuel 4 1980 30.74 - 1983 68.80 8.91 j 1986 94.84 7.38 4

1989 130.59 12.58

The fuel cost savings of nuclear fuel over oil (or natural gas at the oil equivalent price) are obvious from this analysis. The timely commercial

] operation of Waterford 3 will greatly reduce the need for costly oil and j natural gas generation and allow for substantial economic benefits to the LP&L j ratepayers. It is this difference in fuel costs which, if a 24-month delay in operation is avoided, will accumulate into a $263 cillion savings over the 10 , year period 1983 to 1992. 1.1.3.2 Systra Reliability Advantages of the Operation of Waterford 3 During the 1977 peak demand period, 92 percent of the MSU System generating i capacity was fueled by natural gas and/or fuel oil. By the 1983 peak period, the MSU System and LP&L will have approximately 67 percent and 80 percent, ! respectively, of their generating capacity fueled by natural gas or oil. The 2 i latter figure of 80 percent utilization of gas or oil by LP&L includes the

;

contribution of the nuclear-fueled Waterford 3 to the LP&L system, showing that Waterford 3 is the first ger.erating capacity to be added to the LP&L system which is not fueled by natural gas or oil. 3 The capacities of the oil- and gas-fired units will, in the future, become increasingly more suitable for intermediate and peaking operation and less suitable for base load operation, due to fuel supply curtailment and rapidly escalating costs. The growing severity of this situation requires the addition of Waterford 3, as base load capacity, to the LP&L's system as soon as it is available and licensed for commercial operation. i The timely operation of Waterford 3 would thus not only provide for this more . efficient and reliable fuel mixture, but also a reduction in the use of scarce l natural gas as encouraged by the Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of i 1978. Furthermore, this act also includes statutory prohibitions against the < ! use of natural gas by existing generating stations as a primary energy source l l after January 1,1990. This prohibition, in addition to the continually l diminishing ability -(throughout the 1980's) of LP&L to secure long term contractual purchases of natural gas, adds to the demonstration that Waterford 3 will bring to the LP&L System a fuel type for base load capacity which is clearly needed. Therefore, the addition of Waterford 3 to LP&L's system as i O i 1.1-7 Amendment No. 2, (10/30) I

WSES 3 ER soon as it is available for commercial operation will be a substantial improvement in the fuel mix which now exists, and, consequently, will be a significant improvement to the reliability of the service to LP&L's customers. The operation of Waterford 3 will also provide an advantage through the addition of substantial capacity to the LP&L system, and, consequently a substantial increase in the reserve capacity within the system. As the requirements for system planning has' changed through the 1970's - as reflected, for example, in the development of a new forecasting methodology, explained in Section 1.1.2 above - several factors have encouraged the increasing of system reserves thereby improving system operating econocies through the development of larger reserve margine than traditionally needed. The operation of Waterford 3 on schedule will of fer this advantage to the LP&L and MSU Systems. 1.1.4 RESERVE MARGINS 1.1.4.1 Introduction Ensuring a reliable electric supply requires that an adequate amount of generation is provided, that an adequate supply of fuel exists, and that sufficiently strong interconnections are made with other utilities. An adequate amount of generation consists of: 1) the amount necessary to supply the peak load, 2) a margin of reserve above the peak to of fset generating unit forced outages and deratings, unit maintenance, and load forecast error and 3) a diversification of generating units. The assurance of an adequate fuel 2 supply depends on provision of a mix of generation sufficiently diversified by fuel type to ensure minimal discontinuance of service if the supply of any fuel is interrupted, unavailable, or excessively expensive for a period of time. Addition of the nuclear fueled Waterford 3 to LP&L's system will add approximately 20 percent capacity of a new fuel type to the system. Section 1.1.3.2 describes this advantage in detail. 1.1.4.2 Changes in Reserve Margin Criteria The uncertainties associated with the accurate predictions of the factors used in the demand forecast and planning process has impacted LP&L's ability to forecast the electrical requirements of its customers. This uncertainty is composed of both statistical variance associated with econometric models, as well as uncertainty regarding the future prices and availability of fossil fuels. In a recently prepared report for the Electric Power Research Institute (1) l (EPRI) it was concluded that: [

                 -     " Low reserve margins are usually more costly than high reserve margin s" l

O 1.1-8 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3

                                                                                                 ;

ER l O) (

     \_<

s

                               " Demand uncertainty justifies higher planning reserve margins for many utilities" "A utility that needs to replace uneconomic capacity should use a relatively high planning reserve margin" These three conclusions (among others in the study) were based on a case study of three utilities to determine the impact on cost of various levels of capacity.

The first conclusion from the study regarding the higher cost of low reserve margins is a result of the fact that the lower the reserve margin the greater the probability of an outage and also the greater the probability of using high cost generation. It was estimated that the combined costs of outages and the increased use of high cost oil or gas generation "resulting from I insufficient capacity tends to outweigh smaller increases in the cost of electricity that results from the fixed costs of excess capacity". The second conclusion of this study, that demand uncertainty justifies higher reserve margins, comes about as a result of the finding that low reserve margins are more costly to consumers than higher reserve margins. Demand uncertainty results in a potential for reserve margins to be higher or lower than those forecasted as needed. Therefore, it is prudent to plan for higher reserve margins because this can result in lower costs. Since the economi 2 factors which influence energy demand have been highly unpredictable in recent rg years, it is warranted to assume that forecasts will also poesess a similar g / degree of uncertainty. Thus LP&L is prudent to plan for higher reserve margins as lorg as demand uncertainty is likely to be great. Similarly, the last point also applies to LP&L. Study findings suggested that for utilities with a high percentage of " gas- or oil-fired base and intermediate load capacity, the installation of coal or nuclear baseload capacity will decrease greatly total future costs". The conclusion goes on to suggest that these utilities should consider increasing their planning reserve margins in the short term if, by doing so, it permits an accelerated replacement of uneconomic gas and oil fired capacity in base load operations. This situation is identical to the current generation environment at LP&L. A timely commercial operation of Waterford 3 will greatly reduce future cost and ensure greater system reliability. i Based on the three test cases, the EPRI study found that least cost reserve margins could range from 20 to 40 percent, depending on fuel cost ' escalation rates and the percentage of oil-and gas-fired generation. Both of these factors are relevant to LP&L, as discussed above. MSU, with the participation of LP&L, is presently assessing the adequacy and effectiveness of the reserve margin criteria, now in place, which has I A < N ,] 1.1-9 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER historically been utilized for the last two decades. To overcome some of the problems discussed in the EPRI study, as well as the accounting for the increasingly lengthy lead time needed for constructing and licensing new generating stations, it has been recommended to MSU that the presently used reserve margin criteria be substantially increased. 2 Nevertheless, for format compliance to Regulatory Guide 4.2 Revision 2, the presently utilized reserve margin criteria is included herein. 1.1.4.3 LP&L's Present Reserve Margin Criteria LP&L, along with the four other operating companies of the MSU System, plan their generation and transmission jointly, according to the "Critcria for Planning, Operation and Designing" of the MSU System. Criteria pertinent to generation planning are as follows:

1) Generation Capacity

             " Planning of capacity additions must provide that the total generating capacity available to the Middle South System shall be such as to exceed the predicted annual peak load responsibility by an amount equal to the largest of:

(a) lo percent of the annual peak responsibility, or (b) The sum of the capabiilty of the largest generating unit and one-half of the capability of the next larger unit". The method used is further described in Section II, page 3 of the same publication as follows:

             "l) The loss of load probability method of calculating the probability of load exceeding available capacity shall be used as a guide for the comparison of the reliability of alternative expansion plans. The method shall include consideration of uncertainty in prediction of load and shall employ the best available statistical data on generator characteristics, including forced outage rates. The method will also consider hour-by-hour characteristics of the loud, availability of quick-start generation and e f fects of interconnections and agreement with neighboring systems.

2) The maximum capability assigned to any generating unit shall be that which has been demonstrated by actual test under the most adverse conditions that might exist during the 1,ading period being considered. And further, there shall be no greater dependence upon interconnections with adjacent areas than is agreed to by said areas or is deemed prudent by good engineering judgment."

G 1.1-10 Amendment No. 2, (10/80) 1

WSES 3 ER

 ;

(s, - f 1.1.4.4 Method of Scheduling Maintenance Outages Planned and unplanned outages of generating units are factors that must be 2 considered in the planning for system reliability through adequate reserve margins. Planned outages for unit maintenance can be properly scheduled to minimize adverse effects to system reliability. LP&L has a planned maintenance schedule well into the future for each of its generating units. These planned schedules are based on manufacturers' recommendations, unit history, and S; ate of Lo .siana requirements for inspection of fired pressure vessels. They could occur concurrently with unit modifications. LP&L, as well as the MSU System, experiences a drop in peak demand during the fall, winter, and spring months, while largest peak demand occurs in the summer. At present, the scheduled outages occur in the fall, winter and spring months as based on the MSU System generating capacity requirements and reserve margins and as reflected by the load requirements of LP&L customers. The procedure for preparing a planned maintenance schedule for the MSU System for a particular year is as follows: during the summer, LP&L proposes outage schedules for the fall of the same year through the spring of the following year for each of the generating units in LP&L's system. Similar schedules are proposed by each of the other operating companies of the MSU System and are submitted to the MSU System's Operations Center for review and coordination. Any changes to the proposed LP&L schedule are coordinated by LP&L with the ['~') superintendents of the generating stations involved. The MSU System's proposed schedule is then coordinated with the other members of SWPP. A final ( ,/ approved schedule for the entire MSU System is then sent to each of the MSU System operating companies by the MSU System's Operations Center. It should be noted that the planning of maintenance is a dynamic activity and any planned schedule must be flexible enough to account for unplanned occurrences as much as it is possible to do so. l 1.1.4.5 Effect of Intercunnections of Reserves The primary effect of interconnections is to maintain a high degree of bulk l power system reliability by providing stability during transitory conditions and emergency assistance during capacity shortages. This allows LP&L and the MSU System to optimize its reserves and install less capacity than would be required if there were no interconnections. Future interconnections will be made when required and when they are mutually advantageous to both parties. ( 1.1.4.6 Additional Factors Affecting Reserves 1.1.4.6.1 Increased Forced Outage Rates and Reduced Unit Capability ! Several additional factors, whose aggregate effects cannot be entirely known, could also limit the availability of installed capacity, thus further i (O'l

   \,_

1.1-11 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER cf fecting the reserve margin and the cost of electricity to LP&L's customers. In addition to these factors discussed in Section 1.1.1.2, the following points must be considered.

1) Increased Outage Rates a) Increased forced outage rates are experienced when using oil in generating plants designed primarily for natural gas fuel; b) Forced outage rates are generally higher on newly installed units. Because of the number of large units going on line in the MSU System in the early 1980's, this factor could become important; and c) Increased forced outage rates are experienced when operating gas turbines continuously at outputs near maximum ratings.

2) Reduced Unit Capability a) Because of the original design for natural gas, the capability of many boiler units is reduced when burning oil; b) Even if fuel is available, its quality and grade may not be that for which the unit was designed to best utilize. This could have a deleterious effect on unit efficiency and cpability; and c) Reductions to conform to environmental restrictions 1.1.4.6.2 Ef fects of Energy Conservation The effects of energy conservation by LP&L customers are becoming increasingly important factors to incorporate into future peak demand and energy need forecasting and are therefore important in the consideration of the available 2 cyctem reserve. LP&L is setive in both conserving energy and promoting energy conservation by its customers.

Thn LP&L ef forts include, but are not limited to, curtailment of nonessential lords within generating plants and offices, appeals to the general public to usa electricity in a wise and efficient manner, and encouragement of the use of efficiency promoting techniques and programs.

1) Efficiency of Production With regard to efficiency of production, LP&L, as part of the MSU System, operates under economic dispatch so that the delivered incremental cost of all energy sources, whether generated or 2 purchased, is as low as possible for each hour. The MSU System continually strives to operate in the most efficient manner. For O

1.1-12 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER [^'3 example, the exchange of capacity (diversity exchange) between the i j MSU System and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) allows the MSU System to provide capacity and energy to TVA in the winter, which TVA returns in the summer. The MSU System and TVA are summer and winter peaking systems, respectively.

2) Consumer Education and Promotion of Conservation Appeals to the general public to conserve energy have been conducted by LP&L for many years through its advertising and consumer education programs. Long before there was general recognition of the value of energy conservation, LP&L was promoting home insulation standards which exceeded both the generally accepted residential construction standards for that time and the requirements of the Veterans Administration and Federal Housiag Administration.

LP&L promotes conservation through advertisements on television weather shows, radio commercials, newspaper advertisements, monthly bill insert messages, truck posters on LP&L vehicles, the Consumer Energy Team (from LP&L's Speaker Bureau), and brochures for customer distribution and the " Energy Today & Tomor.ow" program. LP&L's Consumer Energy Team was formed in 1974 to help bring the

  ,        importance of energy conservation to its customers. Team members

[

    't     speak to community organizations on a variety of subjects,

( including the necessitf for, and various means of, conserving energy. Company proration of the Energy Ef ficient Electric Home informs customers t at through improved thermal control, cooling and heating require.nea.s can be reduced as much as 50 percent. LP&L has prepared an6 distributed to customers many brochures dealing with tips on saving energy. Conservation is emphasized in the " Energy Today & Tommorrow" program which is presented to high school students throughout the area. This program, which has gained significant local - and some national press coverage, is sponsored by LP&L and other utilities in Louisiana, and is administered through the University of New Orleans. LP&L's home ecoaomists work on energy conservation topics with high school economics teachers and students, homemakers' clubs and individual consumers in an effort to help customers use electric energy more efficiently. Company representatives who contact commercial and industrial customers encourage these customers to implement energy management programs. Appendix l-1 is a copy of the report supplied on November 29, 1973 to the Federal Power Commission in accordance with FPC Order 496. This report contains specific steps undertaken by LP&L to effect reduction in the constaption of electric energy. O iv  ! 1.1-13 Amendment No. 2, (?0/80)

WSES 3 ER

3) Load Management for Conservation LP&L utilizes a two-tier approach to load management and conservation. At the system level, a task force, composed of representatives of all companies, has been active for nearly two years in studying methods of load management to effect conservation. One basic premise is improving the ef ficiency of utilization of electric energy.

The second tier approech is conducted by LP&L, which is actively promoting the heat pump and the energy efficient home for all new construction in the area LP&L serves. LP&L has engaged Tulane University to make a comprehensive study on heat pumps. A test program involving ten installations utilizing the waste heat from air conditioning to help in water neating is underway and a retrofit insulation program has been introduced. Furthermore, as part of this approach, LP&L consumer service representatives are continually counseling residential, commercial and industrial customers on methods to more efficiently use electric service. 1.1.4.7 Conclusion The commercial operation of Waterford 3 at the start of 1983 will bring geveral advantages to LP&L's customers through system reliability and economic benefits. Waterford 3's operation follows a period when there have been numerou- f actors af fecting the traditional bases for system reliability planning including the establishment of reserve margin criteria. These 2 fcctors originating from fuel mix, unit size, economics, interconnections, and energy conset vation, have caused increasing uncertainty in the accuracy of t;ystem planning and the adequacy of the established reserve margins. The cubstantial increase in the reserve margin by the addition of Waterford 3 to the LP&L and MSU system, as described in the following section, will be of great importance in assuring a sufficiently large reserve margin to ensure that these uncertainties are overcome. 1.1.5 LOAD CIIARACTERISTICS AND SYSTEM CAPACITY 1.1.5.1 Load Characteristics 1.1.5.1.1 Louis.iana Power & Light's System A summary of LP&L's maximum hourly loads, net energy requirements and owned cepabilities for the years 1965 through 1979 is shown in Table 1.!-3. During these years, LP&L's peak hourly load, growing at an average annual rate of cpproximately 11.1 percent, has risen from 942 megawatts to 4091 megawatts. 2 Teble 1.1-4 presents LP&L's projected maximum hourly load and energy r:quirements for the period 1980 through 1986. Projections of future customer peak demands, as of May 16, 1980, indicate peak demand in 1982 of 4458 megawatts. The average projected increase in peak demand is approximately 4.6 p:rcent per year for the period 1980-1986. In the spring of 1980, the LP&L 9 1.1-14 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER

   /   system lost some rural cooperative load thus reducing the LP&L peak load by      l about 300 megawatts. It should be noted that peak hourly load must be adjusted by firm purchases and sales to determine peak load responsibility, upon which reserve margins are calculated. The net adjustment, however, is generally small. The projected annual increase in energy requirements is approximately 4.4 percent for the period 1980-1986. The loss of the rural cooperative load in the spring of 1980 reduced energy requirements by              2 approximately 700 gWh for the year 1980.

1.1.5.1.2 Middle South Utilities' System A summary of the MSU System's maximum hourly loads, net energy requirements and owned capabilities for the year 1965 through 1979 is shown in Table 1.1-5. During this period, the maximum hourly load for the entire MSU System has grown at an average annual rate of approximately 7.7 percent. The net 2 ene;gy requirements for the MSU System have grown at an average annual rate of approximately 8.5 percent during the same fourteen year period. Table 1.1-6 i presents the MSU System's projected maximum hourly load and energy requirements for the period 1980-1986. Through 1986, the MSU System's net energy requirements are expected to grow at an average annual rate of approximately 3.7 percent. The owned capabilities and maximum hourly loads for both LP&L and the MSU System are graphically depicted in Figure 1.1-4, which indicates the relationship of the MSU System reserve margin to the timely operation of n Waterford 3. This relationship is also shown in Table 1.1-6. With Waterford 3 and the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station (scheduled to start operation in April {V} 1982) operating, the reserve margins for LP&L and the MSU System would be 48.2 percent in 1983, 33.9 percent in 1984 and 32.2 percent in 1985. Should Waterford 3's and Grand Gulf's capacity not be available, reserve margins would fall to 23.7 percent in 1983, 14.8 percent in 1984, and 13.7 percent in 1985. 1.1.5.1.3 Southwest Power Pool's System The average annual percentage growth in maximum hourly load for the Southwest Power Pool has been approximately 8.0 percent for the years 1965 through 1979. Future maximum hourly load growth is projected at 5.2 percent annually through 1986. A summary of SWPP's historical and projected load and capability is shown in Table 1.1-7. 1.1.5.1.4 Monthly Load Analysis Tables 1.1-8 and 1.1-9 contain the forecasts of LP&L's and the MSU System's monthly loads and capability, respectively, for the period 1982-1984. This period includes the first year of operation for Waterford 3. Monthly information is not available for the year 1982 from the Southwest Power Pool; however, the historical monthly patterns for this group are similar to those experienced by the LP&L and the MSU System. This has been particularly true during times of extreme maximum loads, thus precluding plans for exchange of n (,))

 /

l l l 1.1-15 Amendment No. 2, (10/80) l

WSES 3 ER diversity power within the group during peak periods. For example, during the y:ars 1969 through 1973, diversity between non-coincident and coincident peak loads in the Southwest Power Pool averaged less than 1.7 perce.nt, varying from 0.3 percent to 3.6 percent (2), 1.1.5.1.5 Load Duration The load duration curves for 1983, the initial year of operation of Waterford 3, are presented in Figures 1.1-5 and 1.1-6 for LP&L and the MSU System, respectively. The load duration curves for the two years following 1983 are not expected to vary significantly from the 1983 load duration curves. (Projected load duration curves are not published by SWPP). For the past 2 twelve years, LP&L's annual load factor has been increasing steadily from 57.3 percent in 1967 to 64.4 percent in 1979. A comparison of Figures 1.1-5 and 1.1-6 indicates that the load factor for LP&L is slightly greater than that of MSU. 1.1.5.2 System capacity 1.1.5.2.1 Introduction The generation and transmission capabilities of LP&L and the four other operating companies of the MSU System are coordinated through the Operating Committee in accordance with the System Agreement, LP&L FERC Filing #48. Reserves of the five operating companies are shared through the System Agreement. Through this arrangement, each company is able to install larger cnd more economical generating units than would otherwise be feasible if each company operated independently. In other words, when the installation of a company generating unit gives one company in the MSU System a temporary excess in capacity, the excess and its cost is shared by the other MSU System operating companies. In this manner, each company either owns or has under contract its appropriate portion of the total MSU System capacity. 1.1.5.2.2 Power Exchanges the power exchanges or firm purchase which LP&L expects to exist during the ently years of Waterford 3's operation are shown on Table 1.1-4. The major portion of this power exchange is LP&L's portion of the diversity interchange with the Tennessee Valley Authority. The remaining portion is the exchange which occurs between LP&L and the other operating companies in the MSU System. Table 1.1-6 shows the firm purchases which the MSU System expects to exist during the period 1980-1986. Firm capacity purchases and sales during 2 expected peak hour demand periods are considered in establishing the schedule of generating capacity additions and retirements. O 1.1-16 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

i WSES 3 . ER m '

2 , 1.1.5.2.3 Generating Capacity Changes t i LP&L and the MSU System are planning to meet projecteo demand increases through a series of additions to their bulk power supply capacity. Table 1.1-10 lists each unit operable at ene time of tae annual peak of 1970 for tne MSU System, including LP&L's units. It should be noted that the Arkansas-Missouri Power Company did not become a member until 19 /1 and, therefore, their contribution to the MSU System is not included in Table 1.1-10. Taole 1.1-11 contains a sunmary of actual capacity enanges for tne

MSU System, including LP&L's, for tne period April 1970 through 1979. Table 1.1-12 contains the MSU System's planned capacity additions for the period i 1980 through 1986.

t i 1.1.6 EXTERNAL SUPPORTING STUDISS i 1.1.6.1 Relationship to Power Pool Reserve Criterion LP&L is a member of the Southwest Power Pool (SWPP) as descrioed in Section 1.1.1.1, which has minimum reserve criteria. Since LP&L is a member of the ~ MSU System, it must comply witn the MSU System reliability criteria. The MSU System criteria for the minimum reserve margin meet or exceed all similar criteria recommended by SWPPl3) . I 2 1.1.6.2 Studies of Area Power Supply for 1983 l' Load and capability studies of the SWPP region are conuucteu annually using inputs from the member utilities. Reference 3 is the most current report of , the SWPP. 1.1.6.3 Regional Reserves for 1933 l2 i , As given in Table 1.1-7, SWPP will nave 26.9 percent reserve margin in excess

of peak load responsibility in 1983, provided all the units scheduled for operation that year do go into operation. In audition reserve capacity within SWPP, if operable, is available to member companies for sale but its availability cannot be guaranteed.

m U 4 1-1.1-17 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER REFERENCES

1. Electric Power Researen Institute, Costs and Benefits of Over/Under Capacity in 'lectric Power System Planning, EPRI EA-927, Project 1107 Final Report, October 1978.

2. Wolf Creek Generatitig Station, Environmental Report , Section 1.1-4, Revision 3 dated February 14, 1975. 2

3. Southwest Power Pool Coordination Council, Report to the Federal Power Commission under Order No. 383-4, 1980.

O i O 1.1-18 Amendment No.2, (10/80)

                   -     .          _.~     _.      .            -    -

WSES 3 ER bh 4 / TABLE 1.1-1

  \d 4                             MEMBERS OF THE SOUTHWEST POWER POOL

Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc.

Arkansas Electric Cooperative Corp. Arkansas-Missouri Power Company Arkansas Power & Light Company Board of Public Utilities, Kansas City, Kansas Cajun Electric Power Cooperative, Inc. Central Kansas Power Company Central Louisiana Electric Company City of Alexandria City of Chanute City of Clarksdale 2 City of Coffeyville City of Lafayette 2 City of Ruston 8 City of Winfiele City Power & Light Department City Utilities of Springfield Empire District Electric Company Grand River Dam Autnority ureenwood Utilities 2 Gulf States Utilities Company Kansas City Power & Light Company

, (d*)

w Kansas Gas and Electric Company ,i Kansas Pcwcr & Light Company Louisiana Power & Light Company Hississippi Power & Light Company Missouri Edison Company Missouri Power & Light Company Missouri Public Service Company Missouri Utilities Company New Orleans Public Service Inc. Oklahoma Gas & Electric Company Public Service Company of Oklahoma ' St. Joseph Light & Power Company Southwestern Electric Power Company Southwestern Power Administration Southwestern Public Service Company Sunflower Electric Cooperative, Inc. Wastern Farmers Electric Cooperative Western Power Division West Texas Utilities Company U) Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER TABLE 1.1-2 COMPARISON OF ANNUAL FORECASTED PEAKS VS. ACTUAL PEAKS FOR LOUISIANA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY (1966-1977) Forecasted Peak Actual Peak Deviation Ye ar (Mw) (Mw)  % 1966 1150 1148 0.17 1967 1320 1234 2.73 1968 1480 1498 -1.22 1969 1710 1779 -*.04 1970 2050 1872 8.68 1971 2310 2084 0.78 1972 2500 2389 4.44 1973 2770 250J 7.47 1974 3070 2676 12.83 1975 3233 288) 10.83 1976 3215 3180 1.09 1977 3394 3515 -3.57 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

     \
       . - . . , , , - - -                           ,      ,     ,...n..     ,      ,       - - - - - - . _ . - - , , , , , . - , - - - - , -

i

                                %/                                                                      Y                                                                  J' WSES 3

ER TABLE I.1-3 LOUISIANA POWP & LICHT COMPANY ANNUAL CAPABILITY, LOAD, AND ENERCY HIST 0pY*

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 g 1977 1978 1979 ! I'. Capabi;ity with Curtailment 939 1314 1346 1346 1892 IPe7 2644 2616 4A32 3426 3904 42 4240 4245 4245

2. Purchases without Reserves

a. MSU Prol -48 -210 145 362 -16 194 -250 -130 -520 -584 -97 -314 -141 '66 202

b. Ot her 7 7 7 7 44 89 45 249 103 145 30 30 91 ~) 234

3. Total Capability (1+2) 898 1111 1498 1715 1920 2 70 2439 2735 3015 29P7 3P37 4008 4190 4299 4681

4. Maximum Hourly Load 942 1348 1284 1498 1779 1872 2096 2389 2563 2692 2883 3180 3515 3852 4091

5. Fire Sales with Reserves 0 0 0 42 118 74 157 220 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6. Firm Purchases with Reserves 122 168 109 140 175 185 246 143 147 14P 150 157 158 165 174

7. Imad Responsibility (4+5-6) 820 980 1175 1400 '722 1761 2007 2466 2416 2544 2733 3023 3357 3687 3917

8. Reserve Margin (3-7) 78 131 323 315 198 409 432 269 599 4'43 1104 985 833 618 764

9. Net Energy Requirement s (gWh) 4695 5759 6844 7591 b796 9763 10739 12060 13417 '.3865 15046 17289 19438 21375 23097 i

• Unit s in megawat ts unless otherwise acted

                          +     Installed capability at time of system peak W

h, a

                       .r pe; O                                                                                                                                        W i                                                                                                                                                               'JsE3 w

I VSES 3 ER TABLE 1.1-4 LOUISTANA POWER & 1fCFT COMPAFY ANNUAL LOAD AND CAPABILITY FORFCAST 19FO-19P6* 1980* 19PI 19P2 1983 g4 1085 1986

1. System Capability

a. Without Curt ailment 4392 4392 4392 5507 5458 5458 5458 6

b. With Curtallment 4245 4245 4245 5355 5286 5246 5183

2. Sales without Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Purchases without Reserves

a. MSU Pool 188 1004 1385 846 668 857 1343 i

b. Ot her 243 243 243 243 243 24* 198

4. Total Capability (1-2+3) 4876 5492 5873 6444 6197 6 34

• 6724

5. System Maximum Hourly Load 3857 4337 4458 4553 4652 4824 5042

6. Fire Sales with Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a

7. Fire Purchases with Reserves 188 86 85 84 24 24 24

8. Imad Responsibility (5+6-7) 3669 4251 4373 4469 4628 4800 5018

9. Margin in Excess of Lc:a t4-s) 1207 1241 1500 1975 1569 1546 1706 p 10. Cap. in Excess of Desired Reserve (9-10) 620 5'61 P00 1260 P29 77P 903 t

I j U 11. Net Energy Requirements (gWh) 23473 2574P 26736 27307 27879 28933 30381 i f n

.I. ass N

2 i

• Forecast as of May 16, 1980. Unit s in megawat t s unless otherwise noted.

) . + toss of Rural Electric Cooperatives' Load in Spring of 1980 vill result in a loss of about 300 Mw in peak load and 700 gWh in energy requirement s.

                                                                    ,                                 -                            , - . , - . . _                        , . -             - , , . - ,        ..m-

          ' (N                                                                                    s                                                           eg v                                                                               Lj                                                              u)

WSES 3

• ER TABLE I.1-5 MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTEM ANNPAI CAPABILITY, LOAD AND FNERGY HISTORY
• 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1965 1967 1968 1960 1970 1971 1972 H66 6090 6643 7491 7775 8592 8586 10908 11201 11014- 11004 11118

1. Capability ** with Curtailma- J621 3955 5113 5582 509 6 31 305 305 355 467 715 7 18 18 41 126 276 251 706

2. Purchases wit hout Re se rve s 9211 11213 11506 11369 11561 11832 5623 6216 6919 7742 P481 9101

3. Total Capability (1+2) 3628 3973 5131 7622 7972 8532 8504 9345 9780 10648 10687 3762 4343 4593 5110 5924 6148 6818

4. Maximum Hourly Load 34 34 0 33 2 250 520 738 25 37 196 0 0 0 150 406

5. Fim Sales with Reserves 704 718 711 700 702 732 815 450 840 570 670 755 780 965 71 3

6. Fim Purchases with Reserves 7647 7293 7851 7989 8679 9112 9916 9905 4023 4590 5575 5618 6373

7. Load Responsibiliit y (4+5-6) 3312 3503 834 1808 1366 3224 2827 2257 1645 1933 470 1108 1033 641 1301 1369

8. Reserve Margin (3-7) 316 37474 40025 40378 41171 45771 51111 54899 56937 18538 20795 22645 22542 28208 30235 32246

9. Net Energy Requirement s (gWh)

• Unit s in wgawat t s unless otherwi se not ed

          ** Installed capability at time of syst em peak N

1 T i tr ) y (A

       .L    M E   w 5EED b"

f~% f% ( ) ' ( )

      %.J                                                                                                                '%.,!

VSES 3 ER TABLE 1.1-6 MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTEM ANNUAL LOAD AND CAPABILITY FORECAST 1980-1986* 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

1. System Capability

a. Without Curtailmant 12689 11577 14637 16088 15970 16311 17257

b. With Curt ailment 11969 12857 13929 15394 15270 15585 16486

2. Sales without Re se rve s 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Purchases wi thout Re se rve s 685 385 385 385 385 385 340

4. Tot al capability (1-2+3) 12654 13242 14314 15779 15655 15970 16826

5. System Maximum Hourly Load 10050 10642 11058 11342 11789 12181 12656

6. Firm Sales with Reserves 150 0 0 0 0 0 0

7. Firm Purchases with Reserves 677 395 396 397 97 99 100

8. Load Responsibility (5+6-7) 9523 10247 10662 10945 11692 12082 12556

9. Margin in Excess of Lead (4-8) 3131 2995 3652 4834 3963 3888 4270

10. Cap. in Excess of Desired Reserve 1607 1355 1946 3083 2092 1955 2261 (9-10)

11. Net Energy Requirements (gWh) 57582 61282 61466 63110 66420 68803 71722 Y

( ) L3 II LE' PJ E O .e M g

• Forecast as of May 16, 1980. Unit s in megawat ts unless otherwise not ed Q

3 p_

  . ..            - -      . . .     , - - - - - _ _ _ ~ . . - . = _ . _ _        _ .. .. .- . . - .                             .      _  -.           _ _  - - _ _ _ _..           . _ - ._ .   . _ . ~   - _ _

t. liSES 3 ER i TABLE I.1-7 2 (Sheet 1 of 4) SOUTHWEST POWER POOL (SWPP) ANNUAL LOAD AFD CAPABILITY FORECAST *

SUMMARY

1965-1986 l A. HISTORICAL (1965-1972) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

1. Committed capability (MWe) 15286 16087 18589 19570 22133 24417 27754 28636

2. Purchased without Reserves 0 0 0 25 0 133 108 150

3. Sales without Reserves 240 180 180 180 675 725 1233 1078

4. Uncommitted Capacity -- --

5. Schedule ( 'daintenance

6. Total capacity (1+2-3+4-5) 15046 15907 18409 19415 21458 23825 26629 27708

' 7. Peak Load (2) 13196 15245 15978 17785 20008 21382' 22936 25367

8. Firm Purchase 514 1167 1227 1979 1996 1601 1500 1500 i

9. Fire Salen 31 75 0 223 425 0 25 110 j l 10. Load Responsibili ty (7-8+9) 12713 14153 14751 16059 18437 19781 21461 23977 II. Margin in Excesa cf Load (6-10) 2333 1754 3658 3356 3021 4044 5168 3731 i

12. Margia - Z (100xil/10)I3} 18.4 12.4 24.8 20.9 16.4 20.4 24.1 15.6 h )

U M e) l

       !   mt.s .iv.. o. Sh.et .                                                                                                                                                                      o esu
       .?.                                                                                                                                                                                             -

i -

       ~

5 2EED e 555

e i 1 i e k'SE S 3 o e { 6 I ! ER lr TABLE 1.1-7 (Cont'd) 2 (Sheet 2 of 4) i SOUTHWEST POWEP POOL , f ANNUAL LOAD AND CAPABILITY FORFCAST l

SUMMARY

1965-1986 II} l B. HISTORICAL (1973-1976) 1973 i 1974 1975 1976 i { l. Committed Capability 34,938 36,198 40,644 42,014  !

2. Purchases wi thout Reserves 2,151 2,306 270 495

                     '. Sales wi thout Reserves                                               2,902            2,432                                 508  1,071

4. Uncommitted Capacity - -- -- --

5. Scheduled Maint enence 78 740 1,326 2.353

6. Total Capacity (1+2-3+4-5) 34,109 35,332 39,080 39,085 III

! 7. Peak Load 29,367 32,078 32,200 33,764 l ! 8. Firm Purchases 3,575 3,900 1,814 1,969

9. Fi nn Sales 1,430 1,680 170 249

10. Peak Load Responsibility (7-E+9) 27,222 29,858 30,556 32,044

11. Margio - Mw (6-10) 6,887 5,4 74 8,524 7,0:1

12. Margin - 2 (100 x II/10)I3) 25.3 18.3 27.9 22.0 ,g i

r. 0 9 t i 2 o k 9 DJ ,

t 5N kb  ! co S Notes given on Sheet 4 7M I l l 6 1 1 [ l t . I I i _ _ _ __._ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ __ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _

   .        - . _ _ . - . . - . . . _ . . . . _ . .                     - . . - . - -        . - - - ~ . . - . .                      _ _   . - . . . - _ _ . - _ - . - _ _ _ . - . _ . - - - - - - - .          . - . - - . . . _ _ - . - - .

R O O O 1 I WSES 3

!                                                                                  ER 4

l J TABLE I.1-7 (Cont'd) 2 j

~

(Sheet 3 of 4) ,

SOUTHkTST POk'ER POOL l ANNUAL LOAD AND CAPABILITY FOSECAST SLHMARY 1965-1986

C. HISTORICAL (1977, 1978, 1979) i-1977 1978 1979 j l. Net Dependable Capability 43739 46453 45651 a

'l i                                    2. All Schede: =d Import s                             7457                  8688       5901 I.

j 3. All Scheduled Export s 6258 4343 2543

4. Total Reaources (1+2-3) 44938 50798 49009 l

1

5. Inoperable capability 549 304 1777 1

!                                     6. Operable Resources (4-5)                           44389                 50494      47232

.; f 7. Peak Hour Demand (2} 36847 3919] 38783 i

8. Int erruptible Demand 35 0 124 l

9. Demand Requirements (7-8) 36812 39191 38659

! 10. ' Margin (6-9) 7577 11303 857*- ,

11. Scheduled Outage 4558 5720 3385 l

12. Adjusted Margin (10-]!) 3019 5583 5188 I O

! 13. Net Energy (gWh) 179549 191530 193849* Rc?> l $ 1 h?'e}

          $

• Estimated '

l S i  : W ., ~ i Notes given on Sheet 4

s i s j S j

1

__ _.. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~ . v v WSBS 3 ER TABLE 1.1-7 (Sheet 4 of 4) l SOUTHWEST POWER FOOL , ANNUAL LOAD AND CAPABILITY F0PLEAST FbMMARY 1980-1986 III D. Projected (1980-1986) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

1. Net Dependable Capability 50824 53789 S8358 61072 616P0 (,6912 68627

2. All Scheduled Import s 5168 4259 3990 3837 3360 3089 2807

3. All Scheduled Export s 4139 4000 3963 3455 3329 3054 3153

4. Total Resources (1+2-3) 51853 54048 58385 61454 61711 66947 68281

5. Inoperable capability 96 96 289 289 289 289 193 2

6. Operable Resources (4-5) 51757 53952 58096 61165 61422 66658 68088

7. Peak Hour Demand 41478 43589 45857 48501 51027 53649 56266

8. Interruptible Demand 115 115 115 115 115 115 115 i

9. Demand Requirements (7-8) 41363 43474 45742 48386 50912 53534 56151

10. Margin (6-9) 10394 10478 12354 12779 10510 13124 11937 II. Scheduled Outage 44 83 60 83 60 0 0

12. Adjusted Margin (10-11) 10350 10395 12294 12696 10450 13124 11937 gM

13. Ne; Energy (gWh) 201512 212728 223948 23v908 249694 262682 276104 k N 23e) f

• Units in megawatts unless otherwise noted S (1) '

g Actual load, capability, and energy dat a (1965-1972) are for the SWPP as reorganized in 1960, based on 34 3 m*mber companies plus non-member companies. Data (1973-1986) are based on 37 member compani es plus non-member companies, included in SWPP Coordination Council, Report to the Federal Power Commission, April 1,1980. g . . h (2) Peak loads (1965-1979) are actual simult aneous loads of SWPP member systems. Projected peak loads (1980-1986) are based upon non-simult aneous loads of SWPP member systems. 7M I3l Recommended SWPP minimum reserve levelst 12% for 1963-1969 and 15% thereafter, g I Data format (1977-1986) di f fers from format for previous years.

 --          .      .         - . -        .     ~                . . _ _ . -           _ . - . -.         . . _ _ . . . - -.

D J J WSES 3 ER TABLE 1.1-8 (Sheer I of 3) L0t'TSTANA POWER & LICHT DPANY MONTHLY LOAD AND CAPABILITY FORECAST - 19P2, 1983 and 1984*

A. 1982 FOllECAST January February March Aprit g June July August September October November December 1 System Capability 4

a. Without Curtailment 4392 4392 4392 4392 4392 4392 4392 4392 4392 4392 4392 5502

b. With Curtailment 4142 4142 4142 4245 4245 4245 4245 4245 4245 4245 4142 5252

2. Sales without Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Purchases without Reserves

a. MSU Pool 1013 1018 1023 1425 1395- 1385 1385 1385 1385 1407 1478 820

b. Other 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 2

4 Total Capability (1-2+3) 5398 5403 5408 5913 5883 5873 5873 5873 5873 5895 5863 6315 t

5. System Maximum Hourly Load 3165 3031 2898 3031 3878 4458 4458 4458 4458 35t6 3165 3299

6. Fim Sales with Reserves 85 85 85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 85

=

7. Fim Purchases with Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 8" 85 85 85 0 0 0

8. Load Responsibility (5+6-7) 3250 3116 2983 3031 3878 4373 4373 4573 4373 3566 3250 3384

9. Margin in Excess of Load 2148 228/ 2425 2882 2005 1500 1500 1500 1500 2329 2613 2931 0 9 l 10. Percent Margin in Excess , ,

! of Load (9 + 8 x 100) 66.1 73.4 81 .3 95.1 51.7 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.3 65.3 80.4 86.6 k i

     !                                                                                                                                                                                                  0            9
     .E                                                                                                                                                                                                  E5'e) g

• Ferecast as of May 16, 1980. Unit s in megawatt s unless otherwise noted. E ch h NM S  !'

b

  . . _ . . .        . . _ . . _ _ _ . _ . . __   _ . _ . _        _    - __              .__m_              ~<   .       _ _ . _ _ . . - . _ .            _ .. _ __-_ _ __ _ _ _ _ _           _.        _ _ _ _ . , _ _ _ _ _ . _ ._       __

k j k i I WSES 3 ER i j TABLE I.1-8 (Sheer 2 of 3) LOdISTANA POWER & LICHT COMPANY MONTHLY LOAD AND CAPABILITY FORECAST - 1982. 1983 and 1984* B. 1983 FORECAST a January Fet ruary March April g June July August September October Novem*>er December

1. System Capability a a. Without Cur t ai l ment 5502 5502 5502 5502 5502 5502 5502 5502 5502 5502 5502 5502

b. With Curtailment 5252 5252 5232 5355 5355 5355 5355 5355 5355 5355 5252 5252

2. Sales without Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Purthases without Reserves

a. MSU Pool 940 945 953 891 858 846 846 846 846 867 944 938 ,

b. Ot her 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243

4. Total Capability (1-2+3) 6435 6440 6448 6489 6456 6444 6444 6444 6444 6465 6439 6433 l 5. System Maximus Hourly Load 3233 3096 2959 3096 3961 4553 4553 4553 4553 3642 3233 3369

'i

6. Firm Sales with Reserves 84 84 84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24 2

7. Fire Purchases with Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 84 84 84 84 0 0 0

8. Load Responsibility (5+6-7) 3317 3180 3043 3096 39.61 4469 4469 4469 4469 3642 3257 3393

'             p  9. Margin in Excess of Load                   3118     3260         3405            3393     2495 1975 1975                      1975                1975              2823 3182    3040
              =      (4-8)

10. Percent Margin in Excess [

E of Load (9 + 8 x 100) 94.0 102.5 111.9 109.6 63.0 44.2 44.2 44.2 44.2 77.5 97.7 89.6 E

           .~                                                                                                                                                                                                                          EE@

c== l

            .                                                                                                                                                                                                                         c==

S  !

• Forecast as of May 16, 1980. Unit s in megawatts unless otherwise noted.

l P i 4 5

                                                                             .         -_~          _ ---___ __                         _.      .  .        . - . _ .-           ._. - . .         - . - _

m a v 5 WSES 3 ER TABLE I.1-8 (Sheet 3 of 3) L0t'ISI ANA POWER & L.CHT COMPANY MONTHLY 1,0AD AND CAPABILITY FORECAST - 1982, 1983 and 1984* C. 1984 FORECAST January February March April My June July August Sept ember October November December

1. System Capability

a. Without Cur t ai l ment 5458 5458 5458 5458 5458 5458 5458 5458 '458 5456 5458 5458

b. With Curtailment 5208 5208 5208 5286 5286 5286 5286 5286 5286 3286 5208 5208

2. Sales without Reserves G O O O O O O O O O O 0

3. Purthases without Reserves

a. MSU Pool 724 722 724 677 6 71 668 668 668 668 672 724 718

b. Other 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243 243  ;

4. Total Capability (1-2+3) 6175 6173 6175 6206 6200 6197 6197 6197 6197 6201 6175 6169

5. System Maximus Hourly Load 3303 3163 3024 3163 4047 4652 4652 4652 4652 3722 3303 3442

6. Firu Sales with Reserves 24 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24 2 .

7. Fire Purchases with Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 24 24 24 24 0 0 0

8. Load Responsibility (5+6-7) 3327 3187 3048 3163 4047 4628 4628 4628 4628 3722 3327 3466 i

9. Margin in Excess of Load 2848 2986 3127 3043 2153 1569 1569 1569 1569 2479 2848 2703 L3 i (4-8) h 3 '

g 10. Percent Margin in Excess a of Load (9 + 8 x 100) 85.6 93.7 102.8 96.2 53.2 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.9 66.6 85.6 78.0 k b PEJ y . .

  .L 9

g

• Forecasv as of May 16, 1980. Unit s in megawatt s unless otherwise noted.

h-

   . - - . ,              m_             -     ,, _ . . _ . _ _ _ . . . . _ _ .          __         , _ . _ . _ . . _ .          _ . _ _ _ _ . . _ _ _ _ . - _ . _ .          --._ _= _._.__._. _. _ ._ . _ . - - . . . _ _ _ _

J V J WSES 3 4 ER TABLE 1.1-9 (Sheet 1 of 3) MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTEM MONTHLY LOAD AND CAPABILITY FORECAST - 1982, 1983 and 1984* A. 1982 FORECAST January February March April g June July August Sept ember October November December

1. System Capabi1Ity (Note 1)

I a. Without Curtailment 13512 13512 13512 14637 14637 14637 14637 14637 14637 14637 14637 15747

b. With Curtailment 12701 12701 12701 13929 13929 13929 13929 13929 13929 13929 13826 14936

2. Sales without Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. ~ Purchases without Reserves 385 385 385 385 385 385 383 385 385 385 145 385

4. Total Capability (1-2+3) 13086 130P6 13086 14314 14314 14314 14314 14314 14314 14314 14211 15321

5. System Maximum Hourly Load 7851 7519 /188 7519 9620 11058 11058 11058 11058 8846 7851 8183 ,

i 2

6. Fire Sales with Reserves 212 212 212 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 212 212 i

7. Firm Purchases with Reserves 184 184 184 184 184 396 396 396 396 184 184 184

8. Load Responsibility (5+6-7) 7879 7547 7216 7335 9436 10662 10662 10662 10662 8662 7879 8211

9. Margin in Excess of Load (4-8) 5207 5559 5870 6979 4878 3652 3652 3652 3652 5652 6332 7110

10. Percent Margin in Excess of Load (9+6 x 100) 66.1 73.4 81 .3 95.1 51.7 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.3 65.3 80.4 86.6 p r C3

!            l:                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2 9) 4
             -h                                                                                                                                                                                                                           M

• Forecast as of May 16, 1980. Unit s in megawat ts unless otherwise noted. r-----,

i f* h Note (1) Crand Culf 1,1125 Mw Added in April Waterford 3,1110 Mw Added in December D , S Market II,12, & 13 103 Mw Retired Dec. 31st. il 4 i i

                                                      -                                 - _ - - - . . _ = .        -    _ -            - . .           .      -      -          -.

VSES 3 ER TABLE I.1-9 (Sheet 2 of 3) MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTTM MONTHLY LOAD AND CAPABILITY FORFCAST - 19R2, 1983 and 1984* B. 1983 FORECAST January February March April My June July August September October November December

1. System Capability (Note 1)

a. Without Curtailment 16088 16088 16088 16088 16088 16088 16088 16088 16088 16088 16088 16088

b. With Cur t ailment 15291 15291 15291 15374 15394 15394 15394 15394 15394 15394 15291 15291

2. Sales without Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Purchases without Re serve s 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 4 Total Capability (1-2+3) 15676 15676 15676 15759 15779 15779 15779 15779 15779 15779 15676 15676

5. System Maxinum Hour 1y Load 8053 7713 7372 7713 9868 II342 11342 I1342 I1342 9074 8053 8393

6. Firu Sales with Reserves 212 212 212 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 61 2

7. Firm Purchases with Reserves 185 185 185 185 185 397 397 397 397 185 185 185

8. Load Responsibility (5+6-7) 8080 7740 7399 7528 9683 10945 10945 10945 10945 8889 7929 8269

9. Margin in Excese of Load (4-8) 7596 7936 8277 8231 6096 4834 4834 4834 4834 6890 1747 7407

10. Percent Margin in Excess of 94.0 102.5 111.9 109.6 63.0 44.2 44.2 44.2 44.2 77.5 97.7 89.6 Load (9t8x100) =

k I l [ t'J

C3

.* ass

         ~

i m O

• Forecast as of May 16, 1980. Unit s in megawatt s unless otherwise noted.

E g (Mote 1) Ises I, 444 Mw added in January  % Lynch 2, 74 Mw retfred Dec 31

'                             Sterlington 5, 44 Mw retired Dec 31 Eso r

                                 %                                                                                                                                                                        4 N

l v d WSES 3 ER TABLE 1.1-9 (Sheet 3 of 3) MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTEM MONTHLY LOAD AND CAPABILITY FORECAST - 1982, 1982 and 19F4* C. 1984 FORECAST January Feb q March April g June July August Sept ember Octoter JoveAr December g

1. System capability (Note 1)

a. Without Curtailment 15970 15970 15970 15970 15970 15970 15970 15970 15970 15970 15970 15970

b. With Curtailment 15192 15192 15192 15270 15270 15270 15270 15270 15270 15270 15192 15192

2. Sales without Reserves 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. Purchases without Reserves 385 385 385 385 385 ,385 385 385 385 385 385 385 4 Total Capability (1-2+3) 15577 15577 1557,7 15655 15655 15655 15655 15655 15655 15655 15577 15577

5. System Maximum Hourly Load 8370 8037 7663 8017 10256 11789 11789 11789 11789 9431 8370 8724

6. Firm Sales with Reserves 61 61 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61 61

'                                                                                                                                                                                            2

7. Fire Purchases with Reserves 36 36 36 36 36 97 97 97 97 36 36 36 i

8. lead Responsibility (5+6-7) 8395 8042 7688 7981 10220 11692 11692 11692 11692 9395 8395 8749 g 9. Margin in Excess of Load

., . (4-8) 7182 7535 7889 7674 5435 3963 3963 3963 3963 6260 7182 6628

10. Percent Margin in Excess of 85.6 93.7 102.6 96.2 53.2 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.9 66.6 85.6 78.0 t E Load (9t8 x 100)

W f C r

                    =

be) ,

• Forecast as of May 16, 1980. Units in megawatts unless otherwise noted, We>

s ,

;                         (Note 1) Lake Catherine I, 52 Mw Retired Dec. 31st j                                     take Catherine 2, 51 Mw Retired Dec. 31st E!En 4

r f

WSES 3 ER D TABLE 1.1-10 2 (Sheet 1 of 5) MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTEM GENERATING CAPACITY AS OF APRIL, 1970 ARKANSAS POWER & LIGilT COMPANY (AP&L)(1) Units Type Function (2) Net Mw Rating (3) Lynch #1 Gas /011 Peaking 35 Lynch #2 Gas /011 Peaking 74 Lynch #3 Ga s/0il Peaking 130 Lynch #4 011 Peaking b Couch #1 Gas /011 Peaking 30 I Couch #2 Gas /Dil Peaking 131 Lake Catherine #1 Gas /0il Peaking 52 Lake Catherine #2 Gas /011 Peaking 51 Lake Catherine #3 Gas /0il Peaking 106 i Lake Catherine #4 Gas /0il Base 547 rioses #1 Gas /011 Peaking 72 Moses #2 Gas /0il Peaking 72 Ritchie #1 Gas /0il Peaking 356 Ritchie #2 Gas /0il Base 544 Carpenter 1 & 2 liydro Peaking 59 Remmel 1 - 3 flydro Peaking 10 (1) Total AP&L Owned Capability - 2275 Mw (2) The unit function as specified is for 1977 based upon the fuel avail-able at that time.

   '    (3)    Some of the ratings of the units shown above reflect ratings based upon usage of primary fuel.          In the event of curtailment of the primary fuel, the rating of these units utilizing secondary fuel will be lower than their primary fuel ratings.

Amendment No. 2, (10/ 80)

i l WSES 3

   's                                             ER i

2 . TABLE 1.1-10 (Sheet 2 of 5) LOUISIANA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY (LP&L)(1) Unit Type Function (2) Net Mw Rating (3)

Sterlington #3 Gas /Dil Peaking 32 Sterlington #4 Gas Peaking 32 Sterlington #5 Gas /011 Peaking 44

Sterlington #6 Gas /0il Base 224 Ninemile #1 Gas /0il Base 74 Ninemile #2 Gas /011 Base 107 Ninemile #3 Gas /0il Base 135 Little Gypsy #1 Gas /0il Base 244

. - Little Gypsy #2 Gas /0il Base 436 Little Gypsy #3 Gas /Dil Base 549 Buras #1 - #5 Gas /0il Peaking 10 i

l a

l (1) Total LP&L Owned Capability - 1887 Mw (2) The unit function as specified is for 1977 based upon the fuel avail-able at t hat time . (3) Some of the ratings of the units shown above reflect ratings based l upon usage of primary fuel. In the event of curtailment of the primary f uel, the rating of these units utilizing secondary fuel will be lower J than their primary fuel ratings. Amendment ho. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 TAB 1.1-10 (Sheet 3 of 5) MISSISSIPPI POWER & LIGHT COMPANY (MP&L)(1) Unit Type Function (2) Het Mw Rating (3) Rex Brown fl Cas Peaking 36 Rex Brown #2 Gas Peaking 47 Rex Brown #3 Gas /0il Peaking 76 Rex Brown #4 Gas /011 Base 231 Rex Brown #5 011 Peaking 11 Natchez #1 Gas /0il Peaking 73 Delta #1 Gas / Oil Peaking 104 Delta #2 Gas /0il Peaking 103 Baxter Wilson #1 Gas /Dil Base 550

'l i

l (1) Total MP&L Owned Capability - 1231 Mw (2) The unit function as specified is for 1977 based upon the fuel avail-able at that time. (3) Some of the ratings of the units shown above reflect ratings based O upon usage of primary fuel. In the event of curtailment of the primary fuel, the rating of these units utilizing secondary fuel will be lower than their primary fuel ratings. Amendment tic. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 s ER

/        i
!,      i                                                                              2
                                            TABLE 1.1-10 (Sheet 4 of 5)

NEW OR'EANS PUBLIC SERVICE, INC. (NOPSI)(1) Units Type Function (2) Net Mw Rating ( ) Michoud #1 Gas /0il Peaking 113 Michoud #2 Gas /0il Base 244 Michoud #3 Gas /0il Base 548 Paterson #1 Gas /0il Peaking 46 Paterson #2 Gas /0il Peaking 44 Paterson #3 Gas /0il Peaking 49 Paterson #4 Gas /0il Peaking 87 Paterson #5 Gas /0il Peaking 16 m Market St. #11 Gas /0il Peaking 36 f\ ,/

        )

Markc St. #12 Gas /Dil Peaking 36 Ma rke t S t . #13 Gas /Dil Peaking 31 () Total NOPSI Owned Capability - 1250 Mw () The unit function as specified is for 1977 based upon the fuel avail-able at that time. (3) Some of the ratings of the. units shown above reflect t .ings based upon usage of primary fuel. In the event of curtailment of ;.he primary f uel, the rating of these units utilizing secondary fuel till be lower than their primary fuel ratiags. Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

I

1. +

i , i { 4 , i WSES 3  ; ER  ! 1 1 2 I TABLE 1.1-10 I (Sheet 5 of 5)

MSU OWNED CAPABILITY (Mw) r i

1 j AP&L 2275 j LP&L 1887

• t

{ MP&L 1231 l l N0 PSI 1251 Total MSU Owned

Capability 6643 l

l 5 l 4 i l l I, I 1 1 i

I l

                                                                                                               't Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

_ . _ _ _ . . - . . _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ . _ . _ _ . _. . _ - ____ _ _ ,__ .._..____.-_ _ . . _.___. ,_ ,_m ._ . _ , . l

,                                                                                                                                                           WSES 3 l                                                                                                                                                               ER j

TABLE 1.1-11 2 1 (Sheet I of 3) 4 MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTFM i ( ACTUAL CENERATING CAPACITY CHANCES APRIL 1970-1979 > i i Commercial Operation l Year Company Unit Type Function II) Retirement Date Net Mw Rating { 3

,                                          1970         AP&L              Ritchie #3                                               Cas/0il                Peaking           October               18 3

j AP&L Mabelvale #1 - #4 Cas/0il Peaking December 73

!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 i

{ 1071 Ark-Mo Jim Hill Cas/0il Peaking 3 35 4 Ark-Mo Mammoth Springs Hydro Peaking 3 1 LP&L Buras #8 Cas/ Oil Peaking January 19 t b LP&L Ninemile f4 Cas/ Oil Base May 748 MP&L Baxter Wilson #2 Cas/ Oil Base September 25 771 1972 NOPSI Patterson #3 Cas/0il Peaking April 3 +7(4) LP&L Little Cypsy #3 Cas/0il Base December 6 +24(5) i. I LP&L Sterlington #3 Cas/ Oil December 31 -32 j (Retired) i y LP&L Sterlington #4 Cas/dil December 31 -32

          @                                                                    (Retired) 1                                                        LP&L              Buras #1 - #5                                           Cas/ Oil                                  December 31         -10 I          "

(Retired) l z

• 1 j u l i i O

! o l s Notes given on Sheet 3 i 8 i l i i

l l l

• i WSES 3 ER TABLE 1.1-11 2 (Sheet 2 of 3) ,

MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTEM ACTUAL CEFERATING CAPACITY CHANCES APRIL 1970-1979 & 4 Commercial Operation Year Company Unit Tyge Function (I) Retirement Date Net Mw Rating 1973 Ark-Mo Mammoth Springs Hydro ---- January 1 -l (Retired) , LP&L Sterlington #7A Cas/0il Pesking April 15 57 LP&L Sterlington #78 Cas/0il Peaking April 13 5' LP&L Nineelle #5 Cas/0il Basa June 12 763 1974 LP&L Sterlington #7C Cas/0i1 Base August 88 Ark-Mo Blytheville #1/3 011 Peaking Oct ober 188 AP&L Arkansas Nuclear

                                                               #1                  Nuclear        Base               December                    836 1975     MP&L        Cerald Andrus           Cas/Dil        Base               January                     750 LP&L        Waterford #1            Cas/0il        Peaking            June                        411 LP&L        Waterford #2            Cas/_011       Peaking            September                   411 1976     No especity changes 1977     No capacity changes                                                                                        2
,          k I

E 2 a l af

          -                           Notes given on Sheet 3 C

R _8 i i t____ ___ m ._ _. _ _ ..

_ _ . . . - - . ~- .- -. - - . ~ .. . - - - . -- . .. - ~ . . . - - _ _ . . . _ . _ - . - . . . . - . . . _ . - . - . - . . . . . . _ . . . - . . - - . ~ . - . \ I l  ! 1 i WSES 3 ER 1 I TABLE 1.1-11 (Sheet 3 of 3) MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTEM l ACTUAL CENERATING CAPACITY CHANCES APRIL 1970-1979 2 1978 No Capacity Changes 1979 No Capacity Changes j 1 (1) The unit's function as speelfied is for 1979 based upon the fuel available at that time. (2 Some of the ratings of the units shown above reflect ratings based upon usage of primary fuel. In the event of curtailment of the primary fuel, the rating of these units utilizing secondary , fuel will be lower than their primary fuel ratings. Arkansas-Missouri Pouer (Ark-Mo) became a member of the MSU System in 1971. I' Increased rating of +7 Mw for Pat terson #3. This increased rating was the result of rebuilding the turbine easing. Unit was originally rated at 49 Mw. (5) Increased rating of +24 Mw for Little Cypsy No. 3. This increased rating was the result of rebuilding the high pressure rotor of the turbine. Unit was originally rated at 549 Mw. i  % i l i

.                                                                                                                                                                                                                           l 1

a

' 2 E

!  ?

                      $)                                                                                                                                                                                                    ,

_8 1 i

I i WSES 3 ER i l TABLE 1.1-12 2 j

                                                                         .                      (Sheet 1 of 2)

, MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTEM i GENERATIE CAPAGITY CHANGES l 1980-1986 i Commercial Operation Year Company Unit Function (I) Net Mw Rating ( } h Retirement Date 1980 AP&L Arkansas Nuclear Nuclear , Base April 851 2 j One #2 i ! 1980 AP&L White Bluff fl Coal Base August 444 I 1981 AP&L White Bluff #2 Coal Base May 444 }: AP&L Lynch fl Gas /0il - December 31 -35 (Retired) AP&L Couch fl Gas /0il - December 31 -30

!                                                      (Retired) i

! 1982 NOPSI Market Street

                                                       #11-713 (Retired)            Gas /011             -

December 31 -103 2 MP&L Grand Gulf f1(I) Nuclear Base April 1125 i i -

E ! h l n

              *n       II)         Grand Gulf Nuclear Units to be owned by Mi'dle South Energy Incorporated and operated by Mississippi Power and Light.

              }

s 8 (2) Some of the ratinas of the units shown above reflect ratings based upon usage of a primaty fuel. In the ]

• 1 event of curtailment of the primary fuel, the ratings of these units utilizing secondary fuel will be lower than their primary fuel ratings.

i i

,j-1 i WSES 3 1 ER 2

• TABLE 1.1-12 I (Sheet 2 of 2) ,

.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      i MIDDLE SOUTH SYSTEM i                                                                                           GENERATING CAPACITY CHANGES j                                                                                                                   1980-1966

+

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ?

1 Commercial Operation Year Company Unit h Function Retirement Date Net Mw Rating ( ) i' 1983 LP&L Waterford 3 Nuclea r Base January 1110 5 i 1983 AP&L Independence #1 Coal Base January 444 l ] AP&L Lynch #2 Gas /011 - December 31 -74 ' ) (Retired) l

                                                                                                                                                                               -44 LP&L               Sterlington #5     Gas /011                             -

December 31 (Retired) j 1984 AP&L Lake Catherine Coal - December 31 -103 fl-f2 (Retired) 1985 AP&L Independence #2 Coal Base January 444 AP&L Moses 1 & 2 Gas /otl - December 31 144 4 a AP&L Jim Hill #1 Gas /011 - December 31 -35 2 ! 1986 MP&L Grand Gulf #2 Nuclea r Base April 1125 l 1 1 (1) Grand Gulf Nuclear Units to be owned by Middle South Energy lucoQorated and operated by MP&L.

(2) i

{e Some of the rating of the units shown above reflect ratings based upon usage of primary fuel. In the event of curtailment of the primary f uel, the rating of these units utilizing secondary f uel will be

i {g lower than their primary fuel ratings. P O o i w 8 i i 1 i j a . 1

33,000 32000 - HISTORICAL  :

• PROJECTED 31,000 -

30,000 - SYSTEM OWNED OR OPERATED 29,000- CAPA8ILITY 28,000 -

                                        ---       SYSTEM PEAK HOURLY LCAD TREND p       _

26pOO - 8 ACTUAL PEAK HOURLY LOAD 25,000 - e PROJECTED PEAK HOURLY LOAD RESPONSIBILIT) 24,000 - 23p00 - 22,000 - 21,000 - 20,000 - 19,000 -

                   $ 18,000   -

17,000 - 16,000 - 8 15,000 - 2 ,4,000 _ O i3,000 - 12,000 - MSU I .- i iipOO - J A sg. iO,000 -

                                                                           ~

9,000 - 8,000 - 7,000 - l 6,000 -

                                                ,       g/                                                                                         ~

5.000 4,000

                                            ,'M #                                LPSL V5M./,

l 3,000 -.

                                                                      ,,g g-S 2000  -

_d i,000 MY" I I I I I I I I f i i I I I I I I 1965 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 YEAR l l Amendment Eo. 2, (10/80} LOUISIANA POWER 8 LIGHT CO. FIGUR E WATERFORD STEAM MSU AND LPSL LOAD AND CAPACITY I I_4 ELECTRIC STATION

                           )

0 a r 5 8

                           /

u g - 0 i 1 1 0 ( F l 0 2 O 0 9 O

                  \        N T

N E M N 8 0 0 0 D N E M A N 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 E 6 w R V U C w 0 0 0 5 O I T R U N A S R D P U D O L

        %             0 0

0 4 O H A O L 3 8 9 1 L P L 0 0 0 3 N 0 0 0 2 A 0 0 0 1 O C n A T H io t

 %  %     %     %   %        N                   a 0  0     0     0 O

0 AI S t 0 8 6 4 2 I 1 SI icr v,I mE U t OR c LE le W E O P

                                       . ;

O O O 100% 80% , g THE Msu sygTEM F z  % N g'* N

           @                                                                    N i

20 % 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 HOURS AMENDMENT NO. 2 (10/80) I LOUISIANA Figure POW R LIGHT CO. TSE MSU SYSTEM 1983 LOAD DURATION CURVE l .l-6 Electric Station

WSES 3 ER 1.2 OTHER OBJECTIVES Other than to assist LP&L and MSU in providing an economical and reliable source of power to their customers, there are no other objectives for Waterford 3.

' i i

I I

 ;

I i l t l I l

 ;                                                                                                                                                                                              :

l i t i 1 i I j i l l l 1.2-1 Amendment No.2, (10/80)

U5ES 3 ER [ '\/ 1.3 CONSEQUENCES OF DELAY

   \
    %/

The impact of delays in the operation of Waterford 3 beyond the peak of 1983 would be serious to LP&L, the MSU System and their customers. The impact would take the form of significant economic penalties and of reduced reliability. This fact has been discussed in detail in Section 1.1.3 and is summarized in this section. 1.3.1 ECONOMIC PENALTIES OF A DELAY One obvious impact will be the very significant financial burden which will be placed upon LP&L, the MSU System and their customers in the event of delays. A large portion of the economic penalties would go toward additional expesses for tne facility, such as interest, labor and cost escalations. In addition to these costs, the MSU System fuel costs would increase if operation of Waterford 3 is delayed, when substituted from internal sources. The economic penalties that LP&L's customers would bear if there is a delay of one-nalf, one, or two years in the commercial operation date of Waterford 3 (assuming that Waterford 3 would have been operational in 1983, and that no other units in the MSU System have been delayed) are summarized ir. the following table: ECONOMIC PENALTIES TO LP&L AND ITS CUST0HERS (Over Perica 1983 to 1992) Years of Delay Total Cost 0.5 $100,961,000 1.0 $ 92,591,000 2.0 $262,682,000 O f' l l l 1.3-1 Amendment No.2, (10/80)

A N f()~ A s WSES 3 ER TnALE 2.4-8 (Sheet 1 of 2) I HEAVY METAL CONCENTRATIONS IN THE !!ISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR WATERFORD 3 (Ppb) I l2 l HEXAVALENT , 6 TAT 10H DATE LEAD IERCURY ZING ARSENIC CADMIUM CHROMIUM i, ^ BT 73/u4/27 1.0 c:. 3 33.0 < 20.0 < 3.0 < 30.0 73/06/11 22.0 c:.3 28.0 < 20.0 4.0 < 30.0 73/0b/22 16.0 <.3 19.0 < 20.0 20.0 < 10.0 73/09/28 14.0 c.3 8.0 < 20.0 2.0 < 10.0 73/10/25 17.0 <.3 30.0 < 20.0 2.0 < 10.0 73/12/03 29.0 c:.5 7.0 < 20.0 14.0 <10.0 73/12/27 14.0 <:. 3 129.0 < 20.0 6.0 < 10.0 74/03/27 14.0 2.3 6.0 < 20.0 2.0 <10.0 74/u4/25 .5 2.3 12.0 < 20.0 .2 <10.0 74/08/22 0.4 33.0 21.0 2.0 20.0 75/02/27 < 5.0 . c.3 14.0 < 20.0 6.0 <10.0 75/04/23 c 5.0 c.3 11.0 < 20.0 4.0 < 10.0 75/08/07 .c 5.0 c:.3 13.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 < 10.0 75/11/18 12.0 < 1.0 < 10.0 c:.3 12.0 < 20.0 t 75/12/21 15.0 c.3 36.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 < 10.0 76/01/26 13.0 <.3 42.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 <10.0 76/02/24 7.0 c.3 26.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 < 10.0 Ju/u3/26 7.0 c.3 53.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 <10.0 76/04/27 10.0 c.3 26.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 < 10.0 76/05/25 6.0 c:.3 6.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 < 10.0 76/06/22 14.0 c:.3 12.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 <10.0 76/07/27 8.0 c:.3 18.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 <10.0 76/09/08 17.0 c.3 34.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 .c10.0 76/09/27 10.0 c:.3 10.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 < 10.0 1 ! BC 73/04/27 3.0 c.3 99.0 < 20.0 < 3.0 < 30.0 4 73/06/11 22.0 c.3 25.0 < 20.0 4.0 < 30.0 73/08/22 29.0 <:. 7 48.0 < 20.0 17.0 < 10.0 73/09/26 16.0 c.3 22.0 < 20.0 1.0 < 10.0 73/10/25 14.0 c.3 27.0 < 20.0 2.0 <10.0 i 73/12/03 27.0 <:.5 7.0 c: 20.0 7.0 < 10.0 (- m 73/12/27 74/03/27 16.0 13.0 c.3 1.8 72.0 9.0 20.0 20.0 4.0 1.0

                                                                                                                                                       <10.0
                                                                                                                                                       < 10.0

( o 74/04/15 74/08/22 37.0 2.9

                                                                 <a3 14.0 157.0 20.0 20.0
                                                                                                                                      .5 1.0
                                                                                                                                                       < 10. 0 13.0 i                                     75/02/27         5.0        c.3                               8.0           <    20.0          6.0                < 10.0 i

E 75/04/23 5.0 c. 3 5.0 < 20.0 7.0 < 10.0 ' 75/08/07 5.0 <.3 15.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 < 10.0 I* 75/11/18 5.0 ca 3 12.0 < 20.0 < 1.0 < 10.0 i

  ;;                                 75/12/21        16.0        ca3                              37.0           <    20.0       < 1. 0                <10.0 i   c[                                76/01/26        13.0        <a3                              55.0           < 20.0          < 1.0                 <10.0 om                                76/02/24         7.0        <:. 3                            16.0           < 20.0          < 1. 0                < 10.0 03                                 76/03/26       11.0         ca 3                             31.0           < 20.0          < 1.0                 < 10.0 76/04/27         5.0        ca 3                             37.0           < 20.0          < 1. 0                <10.0

WSES 3 E4 6 TaLLt 4.4-8 (Sheet 2 of 2) llEAVY !!ETAL CONCENTRATIONS IN TIIE !!!SSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR WATERFORD 3 (ppb) 2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !!EXAVALENT STATION                                   DATE         LEAD       HERCURY                                         ZINC                                      ARSENIC        CAD!!IUM                 CllROMIUM 76/05/25              6.0        c.3                                            10.0                                   <   20.0         < 1. 0                              < 10.0 76/06/22               a.O        c.3                                            16.0                                   <   20.0         < 1.0                               < 10.0 76/07/27               7.0        c.3                                               3.0                                 <   20.0         < 1.0                               < 10.0 76/09/08              13.0        c.3                                            11.0                                   <   20.0         < 1. 0                              < 10.0 76/09/27              10.0        c.3                                            18.0                                   <   20.0         < 1.0                               <13.0 i

l I k i l I 1 q l E

s.

I j E ,I  ! PJ O R E

l

i i

WSES 3 ER 7s 2.6 ( ) HISTORIC, ARCHAEOLOGICAL, ARCHITECTURAL, SCENIC, CULTURAL, AND

  \~ /            NATURAL FEATURES Prior to the beginning of construction on Waterford 3, the surrounding area had already experienced substantial development of heavy industrial facili-t ie~s, as described in Sect ion 2.1.3.5. Any future development is likely to be consistent with this established character, especially in view of the zoning classifications, given in Figure 2.1-19, which have been adopted for the area. There fore , the relationship of the operation of Waterford 3 to nea sy historic, archaeological, architect ural, scenic, cultural, and nataral features, which are described in this section, is most e f fect ively vimred within the context of the area's existing and likely future develop-ment.

2.6.1 HISTORIC, ARCHAEOLOCICAL, AND NATURAL FEATURES Two cult ural resource surveys were performed to determine the presence of any aboriginal or historic cultural remains. Both surveys consisted of two phases: Phase I - a literature review and Phase II - a confirma-tory on-si t e field survey. The second survey di f fered from the first ' 2 however, because it was specifically designed to gather historical data relating to the Waterford Plantation and to determine if archaeological remains associat ed wi th the pl ant at ion were ext ant . Phase I of the first survey (1) found that no sites on, nominated to, ['~'} ( ,j or declared eligible for the National Register of Historic Places, or on the National Registry of Natural Landmarks, are present on the Waterford 3 site or in the immediate vicinity. Confirmation of these findings from the State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) of the State of Louisiana is shown on Figure 2.6-1. A summary of the prehistoric cult ural periods of the Waterford 3 area is given in Table 2.6-1. At the time of the first survey, most of the land-disturbing construction at Waterford 3 had been completed. Two major areas did remain to be disturbed, however, and therefore were evaluated during the on-site survey. These were the location of the 230 kV transmission lines, and the Circulating Water System intake and discharge structures, as shown on Figure 2.6-2. It was concluded that no significant historic or pre-historic cultural remains would be disturbed by the construction of the transmission lines and the intake and discharge structures. The second survey was performed at the request of the NRC for the purpose of investigating potential historic resources associated with the Waterford Plantation. Pursuant to the instructions of the NRC, the scope of the second survey was coordinated with the SHPO to insure the adequacy of the survey. The second survey was able to locate information concerning the development 2 and ownership of the Waterford Plantation (See Appendix 2-6). The initial , date of settlement for the land which would eventually comprise the

  ,~. Waterford Plantation was sometime during the early eighteenth century.

At that time several large land grants were awarded to Karl Darensbourg ( 3 (_,/ and his family. The Darensbourgs' retained owr.ership until 1797 when when Elizabeth Darensbourg sold a t ract to her son-in-law Charles Perret . 3 2.6-1 Amendment No.2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER

                                                  ~

Ownership and other aspect s of the history of the plant erion for the G years 1828-1917 can be traced through records of Louisiana sugar produe-tion. In 1879 Richard Milliken became sole owner of the plantation, and it became known as Waterford. It had previously been unnamed. The name Waterford rusy be related to Waterford, Ireland, where the Milliken family may have originated. The Milli; en family retained ownership into the twentieth century. The Waterford Plantation mill ceased its sugar cane grinding operat ion somet ime af ter 1917, but cane is still grown on the property. Archival research, indicated that six buildings or structure-clusters had been located on the Waterford Plantation in 1894 (see Appendix 2-6). Five of these areas are located in the vicinity of the Plant Island and are shown on Figure 2.6-3. The sixth area is not shown on this figure because it is located away from the Plant Island in the area of the 40 Arpent Canal. Phase II of this survey found no standing structures formerly associated with the Waterford Plantation, although relatively undisturbed archaeological remains were found in two of these areas. A description of t he Waterford Plantation cultural resources associated with each area based on the results of Phase I and Phase II analyses is presented below. Area 1 consisted of the locations of a possible bighouse, barn, or other large st ruct ure with an adjoining smaller st ruct ure (see Appendix 2-6) . Area 2 consisted of the locat ions of nine uaident i fied st ruct ures. Cultural remains in Areas I and 2 appear to have been totally destroyed by construction of Louisiana Highway 18 and by the U S Army Corps of Engineers construction of the levee setback and the river bankline revetment. 2 Area 3 is the location of a possible overseer house or store. During Phase II, a small test excavation revealed that archaeological remains (including ceramic, gl ass, iron, brick and oyster shell) are present in an undisturbed context. Area 4 is the location of a double row of 14 workers quarters. During the Phase II activities, undist urbed archaeological remains were found in several small test excavat ions and were observed along the banks of several drainage ditches which cross the area. Area 3 is the location of the abandoned Waterford Plantation sugarhouse. Possible remains of that structure, consisting of brick and mortar fragment s, were found during Phase II. These remains appear to have bean badly disturbed by the demolition of the structure and subsequent plowing activities. Area 6 includes two isolated structures located at the edge of the back-swamp. These are believed to be remains of an irrigation pump-and gate s t ruc t ure . None of the archaeological remains located by the second survey will be dist urbed by addit ional construction at the Waterford site. Should any ground diaturbance of these areas become necessary in the fut ure, LP&L will consult with the State Historic Preservation Office and develop 2.6-2 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

7 WSES 3

ER

                                                                                                 ~

i [. an approved mitigation plan. There are no sites on the National Registry 2 of natural landmarks present in the area. 2.6.2 RECREATION FACILITIES AND SCENIC AREAS t 4 Recreation facilities within fivegily of Waterford 3 are listed in Table

2.6-2, and shown on Figure 2.1-17 * . The closest such facility to l2 Waterford 3 is the playground at the Killona Elementary School, approxi-2

                  . mately 0.9 miles west of the plant. The Waterford 3 structures will be

visible from .this facility. However, Waterford 3 only represent s an addi-

{ tion to the industrially developed landscape already visible from this , ! playground. i Waterford 3 will not be visible from the remaining scenic and recreation facilities within a five-mile radius.. As shown on Table 2.6-2, the next nearest recreation facilities are an existirg and proposed park in Montz, on the opposite side of the Mississippi River from the plant, and an exist-l ing park proposed for expansion in Killona. Waterfr- ! 3 is not visible to j people utilizing these recreation facilities. I In addition to the facilities shown in Table 2.6-2 and on Figure 2.1-17, l there are several proposedgeilities indicated in the Community Facilities j Plan for St Charles Parish . All of these facilities, however, would i be at a substantial distance from Waterford 3. Neighborhood parks are l shown in the plan as proposed for the Hahnville and New Sarpy areas. The j plan indicates the existence of a 22-acre parcel to be developed as a park in the Bonnet Carre Floodway, north of US Highway 61. There are also plans j indicated for the development of recreation areas on the batture near W S8rPy. These would be picnic areas, hiking trails, and Hahnvilleanf5 scenic areas At the present time, however, no plansgxig to imple- 2 ment the acquisition or construction of these facilities ' l j 2.6.3 VISUAL EFFECT OF STATION OPERATION ! As noted above, the playground at the Killona Elementary School is the only recreation facility from which Waterford 3 will be visible. The addition of Waterford 3 to the existing landscape will not result in a significant

,                  change to the character of the visual surroundings of this recreational facility.

I The absence of sites included on the National Register of Historic Places, as well as the . fact that the plant will not be visible from other recrea-tion facilities in the vicinity, precludes Waterford 3 from having a sig-ni ficant visual effect on the area's cultural resources.

.                  2.6.4          EFFECTS OF TRANSMISSION LINE CONSTRUCTION OR LOCATION The cultural resource survey. of the Waterford 3 site found that no signi fi-cant historic or prehistoric cultural remains would be disturbed by the construction of the transmission line. In addition, because the trans-

! mission lines are' located in an area containing other existing transmission j' lines, as shown in Figures 2.1-4 and 2.1-14, the visual effects of the lines that are associated with Waterford 3 will be irsignificant . 2.6-3 Amendment No.2, (10/80) l

      . _ , . . _       _     .      _ _ - . - -        _ _ _ _ _ . _ - _ . _ . . _ _ _ _ _                                 . _ . _ ~ _ . _ .

i WSES 3 l ER REFERENCES

l. This survey was performed by Robert W Newman, Curator of Anthro-pology, Department of Ceography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana. July, 1977.

2. Louisiana State Paris and Recreation Commission. Unpublished inven-tory of recreation facilities. Baton Rouge, Louisiana. 1974.

3. Personal Communications, Director of Recreation, St Charles Parish, and Member of St Charles Parish Recreation Committee, New Sarpy, Louisiana. March 22,1977.

4. N-Y Associates. " Community Facilities Plan, St Charles Parish, 2 Louisiana." Metairie, Louisiana. May, 1974.

5. Personal Communication, Secretary for Planning and Zoning, St Charles Parish. March 22, 1977.

I 1 1 l i 2.6-4 Amendment No. 2,(10/80)

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 'd                                        rt eT                                                                                                   _

PERMANENf BUILDING LOUISlANA Fi 8ure POWER & LIGHT CO* LOCATIOsv UF ARCHAEOLOGICAL REMAINS

          %terford Steam                                                                         ASSOCIATED WITH THE WATERFORD PLANTATION                                                                 2,6 - 3 Electric Station

WSES 3  ! I ER j 3.3 PLANT WATER USE  : j 3.

3.1 INTRODUCTION

i Water is used by Waterford 3 for various systems, such as the heat dis- l ., sipation system, Potable and Sanitary Water System, chemical waste systems and process water systems. This section describes the anticipated maximum

and average water flows to and from each system. Water uses under naximum power operation, minimum power operation and temporary shutdown conditions i

!l                       are also presented. In addition,.the water use for fire protection is described.

3.3.2 SOURCES OF WATER I All the water required for the plant, except the potable water supply, will

he drawn from the Mississippi River at the average rate of about 1,003,766 l2

, gpm (2237 cfs). Of this, the Circulating Water System, the Steam Generator

Blowdown System heat exchangers and the Turbine Closed Cooling Water System j

will use 1,003,200 gpm (2235 cfs). The potable water supply, averaging about l 2 10,000 gallons per day (7 gpm), will be obtained from the St Charles Parish I Waterworks. l 3.3.3 WATER USE DIAGRAM ! The schematic flow diagram showing flows to and from various plant systems [

   \

is presented in Figure 3.3-1. The indicated flows represent daily average rates under normal operating conditions. The flows in parenthesis indicate the maximum capacity of the system which can be utilized as and when needed

!                         (e.g. during initial start up or start up af ter shutdown, etc.).                              Table 3.3-1 shows the water use rates for maximum power operation, minimum power opera-j                         tion, and temporary shutdown conditions.

) 3.3.4 WATER USES AT WATERFORD 3 l l a) Heat Dissipation Systems There are four pumps capable of pumping about 1,003,766 gpm of water from the Mississippi River for various II 2 j uses at the station. From this flow, 975,100 gpm is used in the Circulating Water System for dissipating heat in the condenser. The heat dissipation system is described in detail in Section 3.4. The heat dissipation system will also utilize 27,100 gpm of river water on the tube side of the heat exchangers that are part of the closed

cooling systems used in the Turbine Closed Cooling Water System, and 1000 gpm for the Steam Generator Blowdown System heat exchangers.

l Treated, demineralized water is the coolant used within the closed ! portion of these systems. The Turbine Closed Cooling Water System,

,                                and the Component Cooling Water System are also discussed in l                                 Section 3.4.

l Demineralized water is used to makeup water losses in the closed cooling water systems. These water losses, if radioactive, are treated in the Waste Management System. The non-radioactive wastes are processed with other non-radioactive wastes. The Waste Manage-ment System is described in Section 3.5, and the otner waste systems 1 4 . are described in Section 3.6 and 3.7. l ! 3.3-1 Amendment No.2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER b) Supplementary Chilled Water System - The heating, air conditioning, and ventilation (HVAC) system serving the Reactor Auxiliary Building and the Service Building utilizes the Supplementary Chilled Water System. This system includes two cooling towers. Blowdown, after undergoing treatment, is released to the Mississippi River. The system requires a maximum makeup water rate of approximately 30 gpm. Prior to usage as system makeup, raw river water is filtered through a microstrainer. The strainer is flushed continuously w!*h raw river water at a rate of 10 gpm. c) Plant Water Treatment - The plant water treatment system includes a Primary Water Treatment Plant and a Demineralized Water System. The Primary Water Treatment Plant consists of two filters, each of 350 gpm capacity. In the Demineralized Water System there are two inde-pendent trains each of 225 gpm capacity. The capacities of the Primary Water Treatment Plant and the Demineralized Water System were based on the requirements for startup operations. The normal require-ments as shown in Figure 3.3-1 are substantially less than the design capacities. Only one of the filters in the Primary Water Treatment Pla nt will be working at a time. The filter is flushed with raw water which is discharged with the circulating water. The raw water will be con-7 tinuously chlorinated before filtration. A portion of the filtered water is demineralized and the rest is used for circulating water pump seals, screen wash pumps, vacuum pumps and fire protection. In the Demineralized Water System only one train will be in operation at a time. The demincralization process consists of cation exchange, degasi-fication, and mixed bed ion exchange. The demineralized water is stored in the primary storage tank and the condensate storage tank. Water from the condensate storage tank is used as makeup water in the condenser hot well, the Reactor Coolant System, the Component Cooling Water System and other uses at Waterford 3. There is a provision for recycling water from the boric acid condensate tanks in the Boron Management System into the primary storage tank. This may result in tritium being present in the primary storage tank. The primary and secondary uses of water, noted in Figure 3.3-1, are related to a pres-surized water reactor (PWR) system only. Primary water uses are in those systems where water comes in direct contact with potential sour-ces of radioactivity, and include the Chemical and Volume Control System (CVCS), the Boron Management System, the Waste Management Sys-tem and the Fuel Pool System. Secondary water uses are in those sys-tems where the water does not come In direct contact with any poten-tial sourcet of radioactivity. These systems include the Steam Gener-ator, the Steam Generator Blowdown System and the Component Cooling Water System. Details of these systems are discussed in Section 3.5. Demineralized water is also used for making regeneration solutions for the demo aralizers. The wastes from the regenerating processes are sent to one Waterford 1 and 2 waste treatment facilities, and treated as described in Section 3.6. 3.3-2 Amendment No. 1, (9/79)

WSES 3 ER Ip\ \~ # d) Potable Water Use - Potable water is obtained from the St Charles Parish Waterworks, District No. 2. The potable water is used for food preparation, drinking, and other sanitary purposes. The anticipated demand for potable water will be about 10,000 gallons per day. The waste waters resulting from these uses are treated in two package-type extended aeration treatment plants, which are described in detail in Section 3.7. e) Equipment Needs - This includes water used for washing and cooling of the equipment which is not serviced by any of the systems mentioned above, for example, water used for machine shop opera-tions. f) Fire Protection - The nretreated water is stored in two fire storage tanks, each of 260,000 gallon capacity. These two tanks will be kept full. The makeup water supply to the storage tanks is capable of filling either tank within an 8 hour period. This makeup water supply is furnished from the filtered water clear well, which is a part of the Primary Water Treatment Plant and receives water from the filter. The St Charles Parish Waterworks system is al so con-nected to the clear well and is available on a standby basis. Fire hydrants are located along the perimeter of the plant, at inter-vals of about 250 f t. (s / 3.3.5 INTERNAL RECYCLING OF WATER Steam generator blowdown is treated and recycled as steam generator makeup water. This recycling serves to reduce the consumptive use of water at the pl ant. 3.3.6 SUFFICIENCY OF COOLING WATER SUPPLY The rate of water withdrawal from the Mississippi River during normal station operation will be about 1,003,766 gpm, or 2237 cfs. This is about 1.1% l2 of the typical low flow condition of 200,000 cfs. It is apparent that there will be no shortage of cooling water supply in the event of low flow conditions in the Mississippi River. The flow regime of the Mississippi River is described in detail in Section 2.4. \_ s/ 3.3-3 Amendment No. 2,(10/80)

i WSES 3 l ER C

   \

TABLE 3.3-1 (Sheet 1 of 2 ) STATION WATER USE + UNDER VARIOUS STATION CONDITIONS (gpm) I

.                                                                    STATION CONDITION I                                                 Max. Power             Min. Power                  Temporary Water                         Operation              Operation                   Shutdown System                       Condition              Condition                   Condition

1. Circulating 975,100 , 575,000 0-575,000 Cooling Water System (1,404,144)

2. Turbine Closed Cooling 27,100 27,100 0-27,100 Water System (39,024)

3. Steam Cenerator 1,000 590 0-590 Blowdown System (1,440)

Heat Exchangers

     ~

4. Supplementary Chilled 40 40 0-40 Water System (58)

5. Demineralized Water 36 36 36 2 System (52)

6. Cir. Water Pump Seals 68 54 40 ,

(97) I

7. Screen Wash Pumps 6 6 6

{ (9) j' 8. Vacuum Pumps 40 20 0-20 (58) l 9. Fire Protection 20 20 20 (29)  ; i

10. Filter Flush 500 500 500 l 2

(720) v'

• Figures in parentheses indicate flow in 1,000 gal / day.

I- Amendment No. 2,(10/80)

I f ! WSES 3 j ER !e l TABLE 3.3-1 (Sheet 2 of 2) i ! STATION UATER USE ! UNDER VARIOUS STATION CONDITIONS , ! (Spm) i i STATION CONDITION l ! i ! Max. Power Min. Power Temporary

Water Operation Operation Shutdown l l System _ ___

Condition Londition Condition

11. -Potable Water System 7 7 7 l

1 (St Charles Parish (10)* i j Waterworks) 1 i i ! ~ j TOTAL 1,003,917 603,373 609 - 603,359 2 l I WATER I USE (1,445,641) l l 1 t I  : I f 4 i l i t i i i l  ! { i i i 5 igures in parentheses indicate flow in 1000-gal / day. Amendment No. 2,(10/80)

                             . - _ . .                . _ . _ . _                                   ._._._ _ _             _ _ . _ _ _ - _ _ __                                               _ . _ . . _ _ _ - ~ . _ _ _ . _

MISSISSIPPI RIVER M*MIM

 /'        1,445,423 1,404,144                      UNIT 3 E               -
                           >             A                                              5                    MAIN CONDENSER
                         $          =    M                     =

g g I dk g

                         <                        g E

g 39,024 E __ (39024)

                                                    $ "E             1,440   STEAM GENERATOR BLOWDOWN
                                                                                                                           ~

I L kO $ SYSTEM HEAT EXCHANGERS p 2 t o 164 a: 35 EVAB (164) (35) 4 HVAC COOLING TOWERS  ; (43) l SEAL WATER FOR I CIRCULATING WATER

                                              ' FILTER FLUSH

• PUMPS AND SCREEN )

WASH PUMPS  : ._ I k o )y ST. CH ARLES S

                                                  +          PR MARY WATER ORKS                                                                                          52           (648)

TREATMENT /

                ---                                +           PLANT                                                         1 Mb J,

J I SERVICE 7 DEMINEl WA1 c3 3 AND EA OR ADMINISTRATION w -

                       ~           '^                       BUILDING                 BUILDING                                  <

FLOOR DRAINAGE SEWAGE TREAT. m Q fL R DRAINAGf SYSTEM PLANT l E SYSTEM m l kI Fo f f 10 b p 22 z (100) 05 YARD SERVICE BUILDING 8 g, l OlL/ WATER m OIL / WATER 2 ' SEPARATOR SEPARATOR $) m l f147 50f I I4 I I l ' TO THE I f 201 i l 40 ARPENT 10 f 28 CANAL 1 1 UNIT 3 10 UNIT 3 WATERFi 10 -

                                       ~

POTABLE AND -

                                                                         ~

SEWAGE - LOW Vd SANITARY TREATMENT

  \                                          WATER SYSTEM                         PLANT WASTE TR FACI LOUISIANA POWER & LIGHT CO.                                                                                          SCHEMA Waterford Steam Electric Station

MISSISSIPPI RIVER

                                                                                                                                                                        ?;z-{id4:>Mvf@i UNIT 3 - CIRCULATING                                             ; i 1,404,144                               WATER DISCHARGE                                                      1,445,351 DISCHARGE (1404W                  i  l       l l      I l                   I l                                         CANAL WATERFORD 3 UNIT 3 TURBINE                                                     39,024 CLOSED COOLING WATER SYSTEM                                                      (39024) 1.440

) RATION k I

720 FILTER FLUSH WATER l UNIT 3 UNIT 3

PRIMARY 9 l MANAGEMENT f

WATr.3 USES SYSTEM BORON CEUP 17 MANAGEMENT l 52 IAllZER f2 g SYSTEM 'E R UNIT 3 I l(548) FEM - 2 SECONDARY -- J WATER USES 10 (100) WATER FOR STEAM GENERATOR REGENERATION BLOWDOWN SYSTEM-REGENERATION AND WATERFORD 1 & 2 FILTER FLUSH WASTES, ETC.

• METAL CLEANING +

WASTE POND NOTES:

1. FLOWS IN THOUSANO G ALLONS PE R D AY. MAX D AI LY FLOW IN PARANTH ESIS.

2. PRIMARY WATER USE SYSTEMS ARE THOSE SYSTEMS WHERE WATER COMES IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH POTENTI AL SOURCES OF RADIOACTIVITY.

1 SECONDARY WATER USE SYSTEMS ARE THOSE SYSTEMSWHERE THE WATER DOES NOT COME IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH ANY POTENTIAL SOURCES OF )RD 10 2 47 DISCHARGES TO RADIOACTIVITY. >LUME + UNIT 1 AND 2 EATMENT CIRCULATING WATER 4 WASTE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AND BORON MANAGEMENT SYSTEM TREAT f LITY DISCHARGE LlOUID RADIOACTIVE WASTES, BATCH RELEASES FROM EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ESTIMATED TO BE 20,000 CALLONS. l.

5. FIRE STORAGE AND THE ASSOCI ATED SYSTEM DEMAND NOT SHOWN.

Amendment No. 2,(10/80) Figure VIC OF WATER FLOW, WATERFORD UNIT 3 3.3-1

WSES 3 ER gs

   )

( ) 3.4 HEAT DISSIPATION SYSTEM 3.

4.1 INTRODUCTION

The heat dissipation system for Waterford 3 consists of two major parts:

1) the Circulating Water System; and 2) the Component Cooling Water System.

The Circulating Water System withdraws water from the Mississippi River for use in the condenser to condense the turbine exhaust steam to water for re-use in the power production cycl - Following its use in the condenser, the circulating cooling water is ret 2rned to the Mississippi. The water from the Circulating Water System is also used != the heat exchangers of the Turbine Closed Cooling Water System and the Steam Generator Blowdown System. The Component Cooling Water System is a closed loop system, incorporating a dry cooling tower, which is used in the Component Cooling Water Heat Exchangers to indirectly cool the reactor coolant and the Reactor Auxiliary System Components. Both t he Circulating Water System and the Component Cooling Water System are described in detail in this section. 3.4.2 CIRCULATING WATER SYSTEM The Circulating Water System withdraws water via an intake canal leading from the river to an intake structure containing the traveling water screens and the circulating water pumps. Water is transported from the pumps

  /        through the r +2nser and to the discharge structure. The circulating
        }  water is the. returned to the river through a discharge canal. A plan view

(j of the system is shown in Figure 3.4-1. The system functions as a once-through cooling water gystem for Waterford 3 and has a design load of approximately 8.0 x 10 Btu per hour at full load. There is negligible consumptive water loss from the system. Water is withdrawn from the Mississippi River at a design flow rate of 1,003,404 gpm, which includes 1,003,200 gpm of circulating water. Of tne 1,003,200 gpm, 975,100 gpm passes through the main condenser where its tem-perature is raised about 16.4 F. The Turbine Closed Cooling Water System heat exchangers and the Steam Generator Blowdown System heat exchangers use the remaining 28,100 gp.n, which undergo a temperature increase of about 7.6 F. The resultant tcmgerature rise of the combined flow of 1,003,200 gpm is approximately 16.1 F. Therefore, during full load and design flow conditions, the circulating cooling water discharged to the river is approxi-mately 16.1 F above the intake water temperature. 3.4.2.1 System Operation The equipment specifications for the circulating water pumps were developed from an estimated operating schedule, based on optimum steam cycle condi-tions. The operation of the Circulating Water System, described in this , section, is predicted from this preliminary schedule. i n When the station is operating, it is anticipated that all four circulating {v j} water pumps will be utilized whenever the intake water temperature exceeds 70 F. This is estimated to occur approximately 34 percent of the time on an annual basis (see Section 2.4). The system design flow rate for four 3.4-1

WSES 3 ER pump operation is 1,003,200 gpm, with a temperature rise at this rate of 16.1 F. Three pump operation will occur during approximately 25 percent of the time, when the intake water temperature ranges between 55 F and 70 F. The flow rate during this condition is approximately 84 percent of the design four pump flow rate. The full load temperature rise at this flow rate is about 19.2 F. When the intake water temperature is belou 55 F, it is anticipated that two circulating water pumps will be utilized. This condition is expected to occur about 30 percent of the time. The flow rate during this mode is about 62 percent of the design flow rate when four pumps are operating, and this mode has a corresponding temperature rise of approximately 26.0 F. The remaining 11 petcent of the time, the unit is shut down. Maintenance on each pump will be accomplished during those times when it is not in operation. There is no provision for backflushing or de-icing anywhere within the Cir-culating Water System. Chlorination is discussed in Section 3.6. 3.4.2.2 Intake Canal Water is drawn from the river through a sheet pile formed intake canal , which is illustrated in Figure 3.4-2. The overall length of the canal is about 162 ft. At the river end of the canal, its width is approximately 37 ft and the bottom elevation is at -35.0 ft MSL. Average low water g level (ALWL) and average high water level (AHWL) in the river are 0.80 ft i2 and 18.60 ft MSL, respectively. The canal width increases uniformly over the first 122 ft to approximately 120 f t. That width is maintained over the last 40 ft to the intake structure. The bottom of the canal slopes upward over the first 52 ft to an elevation of -24.0 ft MSL, which is main-tained for the remaining 110 ft. At the river entrance to the canal, a skimmer wall extends down to elevation -1.0 ft to prevent the entrance of large debris and to draw water from a depth below the surface of the river. 3.4.2.3 Intake Structure The dimensions of the intake structure base are approximately 120 f t wide and 73 f t long. The bottom of the base slab is set at -28.0 ft MSL and the slab is 4.0 ft thick at the river face. The top of the deck is at 27.0 ft MSL. The intake structure is illustrated in Figure 3.4-3. A skimmer wall is proviued at the river face of the intake structure to prevent the entrance of large debris. This wall on the intake structure extends down to -4.0 f t MSL, leaving a clear opening 20 ft high. l Water entering the intake passes through a coarse screen (trash rack) of 1/2 . I in diameter bars on six in. centers and enters into eight bays, each equipped with a traveling water screen with 1/4 in, clear openings. Each i I hay is 11 f t. 2 in, wide. Slots are provided for inserting a fixed screen of similar mesh downstream of any traveling screen which may fail. Trash removed frcm the cooling water by the traveling screens will be washed to a l i 3.4-2 Amendment No. 2,(10/80)

WSES 3  ; ER l r (m} s / trougn' and then sluiced to the river at a point downstream of the Waterford

                               ~

V 3 intake. Stop logs can be inserted in guides provided between the coarse , screens and the traveling screens to permit dewatering individual bays for l maintenance. 3.4.2.4 lioing and Condenser l l Four steel pump discharge lines run below the intake deck horizontally to a common, cast-in place, concrete transition block. These lines have an j external diameter of eight ft. l i From tne transition block, two steel pipes of eleven ft, external diameter l cross over tne levee, beneath the relocated Louisiana Highway 18, and join j two reinforced concrete pipes: with internal diameters of eleven feet. The concrete pipes are installed below grade and carry the flow from the end of tne eleven f t. steel pipes to the cast-in place, concrete condenser intake blocx witnin the Turbine Building. Tne condenser is connected to both the condenser intake block and discharge olock by six seven-foot diameter vertical steel pipes. A three-shell, sin-gle pass, divided water box condenser is provided with tubes at a right ) angle to the turbine generator. The tubes are 52 ft long, one inch O.D. l and 22 8wg. (]/

   /         From the cast-in place condenser discharge block, two eleven-foot internal diameter reinforced concrete pipes, installed below grade, carry the flow to a cast-in place concrete transition block.                                         ,

l Four nine-foot external diameter steel pipes convey the water from the l I transition block, under the relocated Louisiana Highway 18, over the levee, I and into the discharge structure. The levee is crossed with steel lines in accordance with requirements previously applied by the Corps of Engineers. 3.4.2.5 Discharge Structure sad Canal The discharge structure, illustrated in Figure 3.4-4, consists of a con-crete sea). well witn outer dimensions approximately 52 ft by 45 ft. Cooling water enter.v the seal well from four 9-foot diameter uteel pipes. It leaves the seal well by overflowing about 95 ft of weirs which run around three of the four sides of the discharge structure. The height of water aoove tnc weirs at full design flow is about 3.4 f t. Elention of the weir crests (highest point) is adjustable between elevations 6.0 f t. and 11.0 ft. Tne elevation selected at a given time depends on the Mississippi River water

1- level. The discharge structure design selected is typical of those presently l in use at other LP&L plants on the Mississippi River. l l

A sneet pile formed discharge canal, shown in Figure 3.4-4, carries the water from the discharge structure to the river. The bottom is constructed at ele-vation -5.0 ft. At the shore end, the discharge canal is 81 ft wide. The width is constant over the first 81 ft of canal length. From this point, the width contracts symmetrically over a distance of about 95 feet, to a

        }  3
      /       width of 50 feet at the river end. The discharge canal is concrete-lined to prevent erosion. The design criteria are for a discharge velocity into the river of - about 8 ft per second at ALWL during feur pump operation. The            2 Amendment No.2,(10/80) 3.4-3

WSES 3 ER purpose of this high discharge velocity is to promote rapid mixing with the ambient water. The top of the sheet pile is at elevation 15.0 feet where the canal is 81 feet wide and at elevation 10.0 feet where the canal is contracting. 3.4.2.6 System Velocities and Residence Times Average velocities at selected locations within the intake canal and intake structure have been calculated for high and low river stages during various pumping modes. The results are summarized in Table 3.4-1. This table shows that the velocity varies under the skimmer wall at the entrance of the intake canal, from a maximum of 1.78 feet per second, during operation of all four pumps, to a minimum of 1.09 feet per second when two pumps are operating. The average velocity through the traveling screens, based on net clear openings, ranges from a maximum during low river flows of 1.82 feet per second, to a minimum of 1.09 feet per second at high river stages. The velocity through tne traveling screens does not depend upon the number of pumps operating because each pump is served separately by two traveling screens. Travel times have been calculated for the various portions of the Circulat-ing Water System for high and low river stages during various pumping modes. The times and corresponding average velocities are presented in Table 3.4-2. During operation of all four pumps, the total travel time of the circulating water after the addition of heat varies from 330 seconds to 238 seconds at AHWL and ALWL, respectively. With two pumps operating, the travel times after heat addition are 532 seconds with AHWL and 383 seconds with ALWL. 3.4.2.7 Rates of Temperature Change The rate of change of temperature in the Circulating Water System discharge is a function of the rate of change in the main steam generators' power out-put and the number of operating circulating water pumps. The maximum rate of cnange of the nain steam generators' power output under normal conditions is expected to be 5 percent per minute. This rate results in a discharge water temperature rate of change of approximately 0.81 F per minute, 0.96 F per minute and 1.30 F per minute for 4 pump, 3 pump and 2 pump operation, respectively. The expected frequency of occurrence of each pumping mode is given in Section 3.4.2.1. The present design of the Water-ford 3 reactor includes the use of a Reactor Power Systeu, described in the Final Safety Analysis Report, which reduces reactor thermal output by 50% during a turbine trip condition. This system insures that the rates of temperature change described above will not be exceeded, even during a tur-bine trip condition. 3.4.2.8 Turbine Closed Cooling Water System A small portion of the river water in the Circulating Water System is utilized in the heat exchangers serving the Turbine Closed Cooling Water System. The Turbine Cooling Water System provides cooling water for the turbine generator lube oil coolers, hydrogen coolers, generator stator coolers, bearing coolers, seal oil coolers and other plant cooling requirements. This system is illustrated in Figure 3.4-5. 3.44

I WSES 3 ER N l TABLE 3.4-1 ' VELOCITIES IN CIRCULATING WATER INTAKE SYSTEM

• Velocity - Feet per_Second Water 4 Pump 3 Pump 2 Pump Location Level Operation Operation Operation Intake Canal Entrance (under AHWL 1.90 1.57 1.14 Skimmer) ALWL 1.78 1.49 1.06 Narrow Section AHWL 1.13 0.96 0.69 (River End) ALWL 1.69 1.44 1.03 Wide Section AHWL 0.47 0.39 0.28 (Intake Structure End) ALWL 0.76 0.64 0.45 4 Intake Structure **

  'N          Entrance (under           AHWL        1.22           1.35              1.46 Skimmer)                  ALWL        1.14           1.27              1.37 2

Unobstructed Bay AHWL 0.99 1.08 1.17 ALWL 0.93 1.03 1.10 Through Trash Racks AHWL 1.07 1.17 1.27 ALWL 1.01 1.12 1.20 Through Traveling

• AHWL 2.5 2.75 2.98 Water Screens ALWL 2.35 2.6 2.8
• Average velocities based on cross-sectional flow area.

        ** Velocity is zero in bays in which no pumps are running.

O Amendment No. 2,(10/80) l l

l s WSES 3 ER l TABLE 3.4-2 AVERAGE VELOCITIES AND TRAVEL TIMES IN CIRCULATING WATER SYSTEM * (V in Feet per Second, T in Seconds) 4 Pump Operation 3 Pump Operation 2 Pump Operation V T V T V T Intake Canal AllWL .59 275 .50 325 .37 443 ALWL 1.00 163 .83 195 .62 261 Intake Struc- AllWL .59 101 .59 10 1 .59 10 1 ture ALWL 1.0 60 1.0 60 1.0 60 Piping Up- AllWL 12.50 103 10.36 124 7.47 17 2 4 stream of ALWL 11.7, 110 9.8 130 7.0 182 Co ndense r *

• g Condenser AllWL d.0 7 6.7 8 4.9 11

, ALWL 8.0 7 6.7 8 4.9 11 Piping Down- 11.84 9.68 222 6.79 2 AHWL 181 316 stream of ALWL 11.1 189 9.1 236 6.31 340 Conde nser Discharge AllWL 1.43 134 1.21 1,3 .88 217 Structure ALWL 4.57 42 3. 84 50 2.82 68 and Canal 1 l l Total Time AHWL 330 39 3 532 After Addition ALWL 2 38 2 84 383 of Heat

• Averages based on volume and length of each portion of the system.

         ** Based on discharge point at mid transition block.

(h G Amendment No. 2,(10/80) l

WSES 3 ER

        ,s                                      TABLE 3.5-6 f

QUANTITIES OF INPUT TO SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Type of Waste Form Quantity (f t / year) i Spent Resins Chemical and Volume Control System Dewatered 108 Boron Management System Dewatered 72 Fuel Pool System Dewatered 72 W.aste Management System Dewatered 36 Blowdown System Dewatered 260* Evaporator Bottoms Boron Recycle System and Liquid Waste Management System 21,000 ppm boron 2683 Blowdown Regenerative Waste 2 fr~'s and Filter Flush Waste 100 25% Na2 SO4 Filters Spent Filter Cartridges 12 Cartridges 24.2 011 Separator Filter Cartridges 10 Cartridges 10 Compressible Solids Plastic, Rago, 1500 Paper, etc. , l *The spent resin tank has one year 'n vidup capacity for normally radioactive spent resin. Including the steam generator blowdown 2 resin which is normally not radioactive, the spent resin tank has six months holdup capacity. ( O Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER TABLE 3.5-10 QUANTITIES OF OUTPUT FRO!! SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Type of Waste Form Quantity (ft / year) Spent Resins Solidified 685* Concentrator Bottoms Solidified 3522** Filters Solidified 152 in 22-55 gal drums

 ;    Compressible Solids         Compressed in drums                                           375
 ,                                 (Compaction Factor = 4) l

• Based on a solidified mixture of resin and cement in the 2 ratio of 3:1.

. ** Based on a solidified mixture of concentrate and cement in 2 ratio of 1.85:1. Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER n

/      \ 3.6      CHEMICAL AND BIOCIDE SYSTEMS b      3.

6.1 INTRODUCTION

During the operation of Waterford 3, chemical wastes will be generated from various systems and processes such as the water treatment f acilities, the corrosion control processes, laboratory analyses, the Boron Management System, the Potable and Sanitary Water System and laundry operations, etc. Depending on its source, a liquid chemical waste may be radioactive or non-radioactive. The liquid radioactive chemical wastes are processed through the Waste Management System, where they are collected, monitored, filtered, demineralized, evaporated, or otherwise treated. The details of the Waste Management System are given in Section 3.5. This section describes the sources and treatment of non-radioactive chemical wastes. 3.6.2 CHEMICAL WASTES The non-radioactive chemical wastewaters typically consist of demineralizer regenerants, sanitary wastes, HVAC cooling tower blowdown and floor drainage. All of these wastewaters, with the exception of floor drainage, are conveyed to the Waterford 1 and 2 waste treatment facilities. In the treatme nt facilities, wastes from Waterford 3 are combined and treated with wastes from Waterford 1 and 2. This treatment facility consists of a metal cleaning waste pond and the low volume waste treatment basins. The metal cleaning waste pond provides treatment for all Waterford 3 process waste (i"'y f streams which have the potential to contain metals concentrations in excess

 '     of applicable effluent standards and guidelines. Treated metal wastewaters are then conveyed to the low volume waste treatment facility. This facility consists of two basins in series which provide treatment for all Waterford 3 wastewaters requ* ring either pH neutralization and/or suspended solids re-moval. Treated wastes are then pumped to the discharge side of the Waterford 1 and 2 Circulating Water System for release to the Mississippi River, up-stream of the intake of Waterford 3. Figure 3.6-1 shows    a schematic diagram of the above described waste treatment f acilities.

Contaminated floor drainage is treated in separate treatment facilities. Table 3.6-1 presents a summary cf the various chemical wastes and their sources, frequency, and concentration before and af ter treatment (if any). Table 3.6-2 shows the waste concentrations and applicable effluent limitations and State of Louisiana water quality standards. Table 3.6-3 gives the frequency of use of the chemicals, their purpose, and maximum and average quantities used annually. I 3.6.2.1 Chemicals Released from the Primary Water Treatment Plant and the Demineralized Water System I Mississippi River water is used as a raw water source for the plant. De-pending on its intended use, the water is directly used, pretreated and used,

  ,_     or pretreated and demineralized for use.

I i (v / 3.6-1 , 1

WSES 3 ER The Primary Water Treatment Plant provides the required pretreatment. This facility consists of two upflow filters, each having a capacity of 350 gpm. On'.y one filter will be working at a time. High molecular weight pol yac ry-Lamide is mixed into the river water to induce adsorption so that microscopic particles are retained in the filter media. The raw water is also contin- y uously chlorinated to a combined chlorine concentration of 0.5 ppm to oxidize organic matter and inhibit biological growth on the filters. Each filter is flushed as needed. The filter flush water is mixed with Waterford 3 circulating cooling water before it is discharged to the Mississippi River. The flush water will contain suspended solids polyelectrolytes and residual chl orine . Their estimated concentrations in thi wastewater, before mixing with the circulating cooling water, are indicated in Table 3.6-1. The Demineralized Water System consists of two cation exchange units, one degasifier, two mixed bed I units, and two mixed bed II units. The mixed bed I units are weak base anion, strong acid cation exchange units. The mixed bed II units, which are also called po,ishing units, are strong base anion and strong acid cation exchange units. These units constitute two independe nt trains, each of 225 gpm capacity, and each capable of meeting the normal daily requirements. When the cation exchangers or the mixed bed units are exhausted, they are regenerated with solutions of sulf uric acid and sodium hydroxide as follows: a) Cation Exchangers - The weak acid cation exchange resin is regenerated with a two percent solution of sulfuric acid. b) Mixed Bed I - The weak base anion exchange resin is regenerated with a four percent solution of sodium hydroxide. The strong acid cation exchange resin is regenerated with sulfuric said in two steps; first with a two percent solution, then with a four percent solution. c) Mixed Bed II - The strong brae anion exchange resin is regenerated with a four percent solutien of sodium hydroxide. The strong acid cation exchange resin is regenerated with a three percent solution of sulf uric acid. The mineral constituents in the river water which are removed by the ion exchange resins are in turn released from the resins by these washings with the acid and hydroxide solutions. ,The estimated concentration of total dissolved solids and sulfates in the regenerant waste will be up to 10,000 ppm and 5,000 ppm, respectively. The amount of sulfate con-tained in the regenerant wast'e will be about 2000 lbs/ regeneration. This will increase the sulf ate concentration in the circulating water of Water-ford 1 and 2 by 1.9 ppm, and in the Mississippi River by about 9.3 ppb (assuming complete mixing at a typical low flow condition of 200,000 cfs). The mean concentration of sulfate in the Mississippi River is 32.83 ppm as shown in Section 2.4, which also gives the concentrations of other chemicals found in the raw water drawn from the river. The spent regeneration waste, about 50,000 gal / regeneration, flows to the waste collection basin for treatment and disposal, as shown in Figure 3.6-1. The spent regeneration waste is intermittent and will average about 2 10,000 gal / day. 3.6-2 Amendment No. 2,(10/80)

                ,x                                                                         s.                                                                  -
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WSES 3 E 8t TAhLE 3.6-1 CilD11 CAL WASTE DISCliAR(E SU::hARY (Sheet 2 of 2) Estimated Aw rage Es t tir.a t ed Concentration Frequency of Chemical and Concentration After Type of Waste Source Discharge Quantity Pollutant Content in Caste Treatment Releassd to (tals/yr) ( p pe.) (ppm) Chtmical Cleaning Secondary System (h) Once at 1,800,000 tiyd razine 50 -99 .o t known O) Waterford I and 2 SolutionsIE) the start 30 30 Law Volume Waste of plant Treata.ent System (1) liVAC Cooling Tower Supplementary Daily 2,097,000 Total Suspended Solids 650 30 Waterford I and 2 Blowdown Chilled Water Low Nolume Waste System (41VAC) Treatment bystem (1) (a) This does not include 184,000 gal. of vaste due to back-to-back cold shutdowns and startup at 65% of core life. f:aximum of 144,00u gallons per day discharged. (b) Normal Waterford 3 discharge flow is approximately 1,003,716 gpm. 2 Normal Waterford I and 2 circulating water flow is approximately 435,000 spm. (c) Due to fuel burnup, hot ar'd cold shutdowns and refueling. Condensate from boric acid concentrator may be reused if it amets plant chemistry requirements. (d) The regenerant wastes are 17,000 gallons per regeneration. (e) The filter flush wastes are approximately 1000 gallons per flush. (t) Includes leakage from Turbine Closed Cooling Water System. (g) Chemical cleaning will be done during the initial start-up. g 1

.  (h) Volume of Secondary System is approximately 300,000 gallons.

R. R (1) Releases to these Waterford I and 2 treatment systems eventually go to Waterford 1 and 2 Circulating Water Systen Discharge. g N z ( j) This does not include spent regenerant from the steam generator blowdown deutneralizer. I* (k) Not possible to predict. n 5 (1) The regenerant wastes are 50,000 gallons / regeneration. 5 S (m) Maximum combined treated laundry (lu,090 gallons per day) and Waste rianagenent (60,0uu gallons ter day) g daily discharge is 70,000 gallons.

r% ,m r% I \ l h / ',

           \      l                                                         \      ]                                                        \    I LJ                                                             yf                                                                G ER TABLE 3.6-2

SUMMARY

OF CHEMICAL WASTE COMPLIANCE WITH APPLICABLE STANDARDS (Shee. I of 2) Eatie ded increa=e Eatimated Avarmee EPJ- Sffluent in Asermee Con- State of Louisiana Chemical and Concentration Listcatione centration of g WaterQuagy t?sete Source Quantity Pollutant Content After Treatment (40 CFR 423) culatine Water Standard = (tal=/yr) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) Boron Management Sygtem 685,000 BaronI 'I 10 - 1.4X10 -4 No =tandard. Waste Management Syetem 9X10 ~5 400.000 Detereent, Dirt 10 TSS-Ave- 30 No numerical criteria , Max-100 Laund ry , Showe r= 131.400 Detereent, Dirt 30 TSS-Ave- 30 1.9X10~4 No numerical criteria I Condenser Feedwater 60,000 Hydrazige'I .05 - 5.7X10 ~9 No numerical criteria Equipment Draine Ammonia

• 0-1 - 1,2X10 ~I No numerical criteria Floor Draine 67,000 Detereent, Dirt 0.1 (h) No numerical criteria Oil & Grease (0 & G) 15 O&G: Ave- 15 No numerical criteria Max- 20 Total Su= pended Solid, 30 TSS: Ave- 30 No numerical criteria (TSS) Max-100 Demineralized Water 365,000 Total Digived Solid =I') 0-10,000 -

3.8(d) 400 ppm System Sulfate. 0- 5,000 - 1.9 120 ppm pH 6-9 6-9 No chante III 6.5-9.0 Primary Water Treatment 13,140,000 Suspended Solide 1000 TSS-Ave- 30 1.5(c) No numerical criteria Plant Flush Water Max-100

$                                      Polyelectrolyte l-2                             -

3.0ul0 ~3ICI No numerical criteria

$                                      Residual Chlorine            0 .1              CI: Ave-0.2                    ~4 1.5x10        No numerical criteria

(

s Max-0.5 Seware Treatment Plant 3,650,000 Residual Chlorine 0-0.5 -6 7.9X10 No numerical criteria E B0D 30 Ave- 30 4.7X10 No numerical criteria Total Suspended Solida -4

,                                                                   30                      Max- 45         4.7X10         No numerical criteria g   Administration Building  1,460,000  Residual Chlorine            0-0.5                         -

(h) No numerical criteria o Sewage Treatment Plant BOD 30 Ave - 30 No numerical criteria d Total Su pended Solida 30 Max 45 No numerical criteria S Preoperational Fic=h'ig 15,000,000- HydrazineI

• Not known -

(e) No numerical criteria

   & Hydrnatatic Te=ti---  20,000,000  Total Suspended Solide       30                TSS-Avg- 30                    (e)   No Numericas criteria Max-100

_, _ _ _ . . . - _ _. . . . _ . ._ ___. - _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . . _ . - _. ____m ~ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ - . _ . _ . . . _ . h \ WSES 3

• ER j i

1 TABLE 3.6-2 (Cont'd) t SL201ARY OF L!I.t11 CAL WASTE COMPLIANCE WITil AFPL10ABLE STANDARDS i (Sheet 2 of 2) , t;stimated increasa ' Estimated Average EPA Ef fluent in Awrage Lon- State of Louisiana Chemical and Concentration Limitations

                        . Waste Source                            Quantity    Pollutant Content                         Af ter Treatment                                           centration of g -             Water quagy (40 CFR 423)                          culating Water                Standards
,                                                                 (gals /yr)                                                 (ppm)                  (ppm)                                        (ppm)

Preoperational Flushing & pli 6-9 6-9 sio Change 6.5-9.0 hydrostatic Testing (Cont'd) 1 Steam Generator 145,00u Total Dissc1ved Solids 0-10000 - 4.6(1) 400 ppm Blowdown System Sulfates 0-5000 - 2.3 120 ppm ., j Regenerativu Solutions pli 6-9 6.0-9.0 No change 6.5-9.0 Steam Generator 20,000 Total Suspended Solids 30 30 6.9 X 10-3(k) No numerical criteria i l Blowdown System Electromagnetic Filter Flush 3.7 X 10 4 Max.) I INAC . Cooling 2,097,000 Total Suspended 30 30 No numerical criteria

Tower Blowdown Solids 2.7 X 10( (Avg.)

(a) Classificatica of Mississippi River in this reach is B (Secondary Contact Recreation). These standards / criteria 4 are applicable af ter the chemical waste mixes with river water. [ R (b) Normal Wattrford 3 discharge flow is approximately 1,003,716 spm. l2 Normal Waterford 1 and 2 circulating water flow is approximately 435,000 gpm. _', 3 5

;                   z    (c) Instantaneous concentration based on flash discharge of 90,000 gallons per hour.                                                                                                                                           >
!                   P                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    '

y (d) Instantaneous cor. centration based on regenerative waste discharge of 10,000 gallons per hour. , l O o (e) No EPA ef fluent limitations. I

• y (1) There will be no perceptible change in pil.

I (g) Not possible to predict. i (h) Discharged to the Storm Water Drainage System. (1) Instantaneous concentration based on regenerative waste discharge of 12,000 gallons per hour. (k) Instaneous concentration based on flush discharge of 6000 gallons per hour. i i l .

 !                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       l i                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       i I

i - i i

WSES 3 N' ER \ 4.1 SITE PREPARATION AND CONSTRUCTION 4.1.1 CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULING All major activities involving excavation, dredging, spoil disposal, and backfilling were finished by October, 1978. The scheduled dates for completion of major milestones in the construction of Waterford 3 are given in Table 4.1-1. 4.

1.2 DESCRIPTION

OF SITE PREPARATION AND CDNSTRUCTION 4.1.2.1 Major Construction-Related Facilities Various semi permanent buildings erected for construction, such as con-tractor offices, warehouses, guard houses and construction offices, are distributed throughout the site, as shown in Figure 3.1-1. The location of other principal construction areas at the Waterford 3 site is given on Figure 4.1-1. 4.1.2.2 Access Employee and construction vehicles travel to and from the site by Louisi-N ana Highways 18, 52, 3142, 3127 and U S Route 90. These highways are shown on Figure 2.1-10. Primary access to the construction areas is provided by two temporary roads built from Louisiana Highway 18, one approximately 900 feet east of the discharge structure, and one approxi-mately 1150 feet west of the intake structure, as shown in Figure 4.1-1. Table 4.1-2 shows the estimated daily average number of construction workers that commute to the Waterford 3 site, and Table 4.1-3 shows the estimated daily volume of construction traf fic. Various heavy or bulky construction aaterials, such as containment vessel plates, circulating water pipes, and fine and coarse aggregate for the concrete batch plant, have been transported to the site by barge or by two railroad spurs that extend from the Missouri Pacific Railroad located within LP&L's property line, as shown in Figure 2.1-4. 4.1.2.3 Excavation, Grading and Dredging Since the site was originally flat agricultural land, little clearing, re-grading or other site preparation was needed. Table 4.1-4 indicates that ap-proximately 150 acres, or 4.2% of the 3,56C acre site, have been affected by plant construction activities. Disposal of all spoil removed by excavation for the main plant and Circulating Water System has been either inside, or immediately outside, the construction area. Spoil disposal within the main construction area, as shown on Figure 4.1-1, has been used to raise the elevation of areas occupied by temporary construction facilities, whereas spoil disposed outside the main construction area has been graded and seeded to prevent erosion. J x- -) , 4.1-1

WSES 3 ER 4.1.2.4 Construction Water Use All potable water and water used for the concrete batch plant is obtained from the St Charles Parish water system. A small amount of the groundwater, derived from pumped relief wells inside the excavation area, has been used for compaction of the backfill around the plant island structure. These wells, in addition to the wells that are part of the dewatering system at the periphery of the plant island structure, have been discharging ground-water into the site drainage system at a rate ranging between 100 to 200 gpm since 1975. Groundwater levels, depressed as much as 75-80 feet within the excavation areas, were allowed to return to their original levels in a controlled manner as required by the plant island structure founda-tion design. Storm water, sanitary treatment plant ef fluents and pumped groundwater are discharged through the site drainage system into the canal system south of the Waterford 3 site. glveextendedaeration,activatedsludge, package presently service the construction site. The 2 sewage treatment plants effluent is chlorinated prior to discharge. Chemical toilets were formerly used to service construction personnel outside the temporary construction buildings and these wastes were disposed of of fsite. However, those chemical toilets servicing the plant island are presently collected and conveyed to a 10,000 gpd capacity extended aeration package treatment facility. Chemical toilets are still used in the outlying areas (e.g. on the river bank con-struction area) and the wastes are disposed of of fsite. 4.1.3 EFFECTS OF SITE PREPARATION AND CONSTRUCTION 4.1.3.1 Effects on Land Use Construction activities have only affected about 4.2% of the land on LP&L's property. The loss of previously existing agricultural land, typically j planted with sugar cane, represents about 2% of the total cropland within l St Charles Panish. ) l The topographic relief at the site has been altered slightly by the ex-cavation and disposal of spoil within the construction area. Planti7g, i shell paving, and contouring have prevented excessive erosion. Landocaping will be completed at the end of the construction phase. Based on the information described in Section 2.6, Waterford 3 construc-tion activities have not affected historical or cultural resources on the site or in the local area. Traf fic congestion caused by trucks delivering materials and passenger cars at the change of work shif ts has occurred in the local area. These vehicles, along with traffic associated with other construction activities in nearby areas, have increased the traffic load on Louisiana Highway 18, but the recent construction of Louisiana Highway 3127, connecting the site l area with U S 90, has provided relief from this temporary situation. Although noise from construction equipment and vehicles has occurred, its impact on the nearest residences, located approximately 4,000 feet from the Oll site, has not appeared to be significantly greater than that due to the 4.1-2 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

                       - _ . ~ .~.          .          -                 ..             . = _  . _ .      .. _ - . - -  .- _ . _ . _ -

l ) WSES 3 ER , N TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) CHAPTER 5: EFFECTS OF OPERATION Page . 5.6.2.4 Plant Operation and Maintenance Noise Impact 5.6-4 REFERENCES 5.6-5 TABLES AND FIGURES FOR SECTION 5.6 1 4 j 5.7 RESOURCES COMMITTED 5.7-1 5.7.1 M ATERIALS CONSUMED IN THE NUCLEAR REACTION PROCESS 5.7-1 I j 5.7.2 OTHER RESOURCES CGMMITTED DUE TO PLANT OPERATION 5.7-1 ] I 5.7.2.1 Land Resources 5.7-1 4 l 5.7.2.2 Water Resources 5.7-2 1 i j 5.7.2.3 Aquatic Resources 5.7-2 i s j 5.7-4 1

         ])                                             REFERENCES 5.8     DECOMMISSIONING AND DISKANTLING                                                           5.8-1 5.8.1        DECOMMISSIONING ALTERNATIVES                                                         5.8-1 5.8,2       COST OF DECOMMISSIONING                                                               5.8-2         !

I { 5.8.3 ENVIRONKENTAL DiPACT OF DECOMMISSIGNING 5.8-2 1' REFERENCES 5.8-4 TABLES FOR SECTION 5.8 i i l 4 d i O l i 5-111

WSES 3 ER LIST OF TABLES CIIAPTER 5: EFFECTS OF OPERATION TABLE TITLE 5 1-1 Input and Existing Conditions for Thermal Analysis - Typical Low Flow Conditions of abcut 205,000 CFS 2 and Extreme Low Flow Condition of 100,000 CFS 5.1-2 Input Conditions for Thermal Plumes Measured in Previous Surveys of the Waterford 1 and 2 and Little Gypsy Discharges 5 1-3 Characteristics of Thermal Plumes Measured in Previous Surveys of the Waterford 1 and 2 and Little Gypsy Discharges 5.1-4 Combined Thermal Impacts of Waterford 1, 2 and 3 and Little Gypsy Discharges 3.1-5 Location, Design and Operation of Intakes at the Eleven Study Stations and at Uaterford 3 5.1-6 Estimated Number of Ordanisms to be Impinged at Waterford 3 2 5.1-7 Economic Costs of Predicted Impingement by u?terford 3 5.1-8 Percent of Mississippi River Flow Entrained by Waterford 3 5.1-9 Percent of Mississippi River Flows Entrained by Watar-ford 1, 2 and 3 and Little Gypsy 5.1-10 Contribution 5 Jyanophyta to the Phytoplankton Community 5.2-1 Gaseous Effluent Concentrations Contributed to the Background 5.2-2 Relative Noble Gas Concentrations 5.2-3 Relative Radioiodine and Particulate Concentrations 5.2-4 Relative Deposition for Radioiodine and Particulates 5.2-5 Radionuclide Concentrations from Liquid Effluents from Routine Opera 61on of Waterford 3 5.2-6 Annual Dose to Biota Other than Man from Liquid Effluents from Waterford 3 5.2-7 Estimated Year 2000 Food Productior, 5.2-8 Annual Population-Integrated Doses (Man-Rem) from Waterfcrd 3 5.2-9 Compliance with 10 CFR 50, Appendix I 5-iv Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER g _, ) predictions are larger than those of the typical les flow because the average seasonal flows are based on a conservative modeling approach for the Waterford 1 and 2, Waterford 3 and Little bypsy discharues, I whereas the typical low flow condition was based upon actual measurements at Waterford 1 and 2 and Little Gypsy, with the superimposition of the Waterford 3 plumes predicted by the model. 5.1.3 BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS 5.1.3.1 Effects of Water Intake 5.1.1.1.1 Impingement 1mpingement, the collision of an orbanism with the screen system as a result of intake flow, is a potential effect of plant operation. Impingement rates are determiaed by a complex interaction of factors such as fish densities, intake design and capacity, fish behavior, fish swimming abilities, physical and chemical environmental conditions and other factors. I2 Knowledge of the manner in which many of these factors operate is either extremely limited or unavailable at this time. However, within these con-straints, predictions of the effects of impingement from the operation of the Waterford 3 Circulating Water System have been made. Pursuant to Section 316(b) of Public Law 92-500, (Federal Water Pollution f\ s Control Act Amendments of 1972), a report was submitted in April 1979 to the Federal Environmental Protection Agency concerning the effects of the Waterfg{g)3intakeontheaquaticecologyoftheMississippiRiver. This report presents, on a community-by-community basis, the rationale for the determination that the Mississippi River in the vicinity of Waterford 3 is an area of low potential impact due to water withdrawal. A summary of the methodologies, impinhement estimates made, and the impact of impingement on the lower Mississippi River from this study are presented below. 5.1.3.1.2 Methodology for Determining Impingement Rates Prior to the preparation of the 316(b) Demonstration, impingement estimates for Waterford 3 were correlated to impingement measurements at Waterford 1 2 and 2. This was considered adequate since the Waterford 1 and 2 intake is located approximately 0.5 miles upstream and on the same side of the river as the Waterford 3 intake. However, with the requirement for the prepara-tion of a 316(b) Demonstration, it was felt necessary to refine these ini-tial estimates, especially since these two intakes are of significantly different design. Therefore, the comparative investigation of power plant impingement effects was expanded to include available data from other repre-sentative stations in addition to Waterford 1 and 2. Power plant impingement measurements were first investigated from available information on stations located in the lower Mississippi River. Two plants were found in addition to Waterford 1 and 2: Willow Glen 1 and Willow Glen gs 4. Ilowever, these plants have pipeline intakes which withdraw water from a f ) limited water depth and the impingement effects could therefore be expected

 'N_    /  to not be representative of Waterford 3's.

5.1-5 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER Since it was not possible to obtain impingement data from the lower Miss-issippi River intakes with similar designs to that of Waterford 3, additional up-river stations were investigated. The rationale for this investigation is that the dominant fish species present in these areas are probably the same ones subject to impingement at Waterford 3. The applicable upstream sta-tions are Sioux, Meramec, Wood River and Riverside - all located on the Misuissippi River; the Gallagher Generating Station located on the Ohio River; and Council Bluf f s, liawthorne and Labadie Stations located on the Missouri River. basically the methodology for developing impingement rates consisted of coaparing the impinhement rates for the dominant fish species at each sta-tion in light of: the differences in intake design (e.g. intake velocities and depth of water withdrawal); the physical conditions of the river at the station location (e.g. river water temperature); the intake location, and; knowledge of the biological characteristics of the dominant fish species. Table 5.1-5 presents a comparison of the intake designs, intake velocity, the average intake capacity and information on water recirculation for the various stations, including Waterford 3. As Table 5.1-5 indicates, the intake velocity of Waterford 3 is about the same as the average velocity of all the intakes evaluated. Because there was not significant variability in the range of velocities among the plants, a correlation between rates of impindement and velocity could not be drawn in this analysis. Therefore, velocity information did not affect the predic-tion of impingement by Waterford 3. 2 Numbers of orbanisms impinged per unit volume of water withdrawn were used to account for differing operating levels among the plants and to provide a basis for predicting impingement rates at the average Waterford 3 intake flow. Two estimates of impingement by Waterford 3 were developed. The first, re-flectinh conservative uqderlying assumptions, is the expected likely maxi-mum rate. The second is a rate judged to be more likely to actually occur, which is referred to as the likely average rate. This range of impingement rates can be conservatively anticipated to envelop a reasonable and realis-tic rate which can then be used to analyze the effect on the Mississippi River resources. The assumptions utilized for a particular species are discussed in the following section and calculations were based, as given in Appendix 5-3, on judgment estimates of where in a range of volumetric im-pingement rates the Waterford 3 rate would be expected to fall. 5.1.3 d.3 Impact of Impingement on the Lower Mississippi River Utilizing the methodology summarized above and detailed in Appendix 5-3, est.imates of the probable magnitude of the impact of impingement on the shellfish and finfish populations of the lower Mississippi River from the withdrawal of water for Waterford 3 were made. All impingement estimates presented below conservatively assume a mortality rate of 100 percent. 5.1-6 l Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER i

a. River Shrimp The river shrimp is a species of crustacean which is abundant at i Waterford 3 and is fairly ubiquitous in the lower Mississippi River.

4 lapingement of river shrimp was not reported by any of the facili-i ties investigated other than Waterford 1 and 2, Willow Glen 1 and I Willow bien 4, but its range is quite wide. .Thus the prediction of impfngement for river shrimp at Waterford 3 is based upon a limited data base and upon the preferred habitat of the species. Average impingement of river shrimp was found to be less than 0.005 ! organisms per 100,000 gallons at Willow Glen 4, abc. 0.08 per i 100,000 gallons at Willow Glen 1, and approximately 0.08 per 100,000 gallons at Waterford 1 and 2. These intakes draw water from near j the bottom, where shrimp are most likely to occur, and are expected to result in higher rates of impingement than would occur at Water-ford 3. Nevertheless, a likely maximum rate of impingement of approximately 0.06 shrimp per 100,000 gallons by Waterford 3 has l been postulated from the average of the rates of Waterford 1 and 2, i Willow Glen 1 and Willow blen 4. This rate, expressed on an annual ! basis, is equivalent to 260,000 shrimp per year or 1040 pounds per l year, using an average weight of 0.004 pounds per shrimp. l A more likely rate of shrimp impingement can be estimated to be 0.01 l' individual per 100,000 gallons, which is equivalent to 44,000 shrimp or 160 pounds per year. This information is also included in Table 2 Q 5.1-6.

b. Blue Catfish 4

Blue catfish were the most abundant species found in the Waterford 1 l and 2 impingen.ent study. Excluding shad, blue catfish comprised 55%

l of the total remaining specimens collected at Waterford 1 and 2; and j 23% and b% of the total remaining specimens at the two Willow Glen j intekes. At the more northern intakes, it comprised only about 1% j of the remaining specimens.

;                               These percentages suggest that similarities in the design and/or location of the lower basin intakes account for the relatively higher impingement rates for blue catfish. Blue catfish are more abundant in the lower reaches of the basin than they are further

north, and they generally dwell on or near the river bottom. There-

! fore, as 'the comparison of tiu ercentages impinged indicate, blue catfish are relatively more susceptible to impingement by intakes of the design (submerged pipes) and locational characteristics of Waterford 1 and 2, Willow Glen 1 and Willow Glen 4. The volumetric rates of impingement of blue catfish for all the 4 study stations are 0.034 fish per 100,000 gallons for Waterford 1 and 2, 0.003 for Willow Glen 1 and 0.002 for Sioux. A conservative ff j rate of impingement for Waterford 3 can be predicted as 0.030 fish per 100,000 gallons, based solely on its close proximity to j j Waterford 1 and 2. This rate can be anticipated to be a likely maximum rate of impinhement of blue catfish by Waterford 3, due to i 5.1-7 Amendment No.2, (10/80) ! l 4 , p , 4-- . - , - - . < . g+ +--r , , , - - , ,, - . , - , , - --- ,,-_-., , ,,merg, . , -_ , , , _ , , - . , , -,ww y-,. . , vw., -

WSES 3 ER the lack of consideration of the design differences. At this rate, a likely maximum of 131,000 blue catfish per year can be predicted for Waterford 3, assuming an average withdrawal rate of 830,000 gpm. When the design differences between Waterford 1 and 2 and Waterford 3 are considered, it is more likely that Waterford 3 will impinge approximately 0.02 blue catfish per 100,000 gallons with-drawn. This lower rate can be assumed to be due to the greater susceptibility of blue catfish to withdrawal and impin,3ement by the upward extraction of bottom waters through the inverted pipe of the Waterford 1 and 2 intake. If the average weight of 0.02 pounds per fish is assumed, (based on data from the study at Waterford 1 and 2), the intake serving Waterford 3 will impinge an expected maximum of approximately 2600 lb/yr of blue catfish; however, a more likely average rate is 1700 lb/yr. These estimates are shown in Table 5.1-6.

c. Channel Catfish The average rate of impingement of channel catfish experienced at Waterford 1 and 2 was 0.003 fish per 100,000 gallons. This low rate of impingement of channel catfish, given the assumption that the Waterford 1 and 2 intake would be selective for this species because of its design, indicates that channel catfish are relatively much less abundant in this area of the river.

The prediction for the range of impingement of this species by 2 Waterford 3 can be derived in the same manner as the range for blue catfish. A conservatively predicted maximum rate for Waterford 3 would be 0.003 fish per 100,000 gallons, or 13,100 fish per year. Using the average weight per fish, of 0.05 pounds which was obtained from the Waterford 1 and 2 study, a likely maximum weight of 650 lb/yr of channel catfish would be impinged by Waterford 3. A more likely average rate can be expected to be approximately 0.002 fish per 100,000 gallons or 8700 fish per year. This would be equivalent to about 400 lb/yr. Table 5.1-6 includes these estimates.

d. Freshwater crum A review of toe freshwater drum impingement rates at the stations studied indicated that the Riverside Station intakes impinged relatively hib ber numbers of this species. This fact, in light of the lower water withdrawal rates, indicates that a much hiiher abundance of drum occurs in the Mississippi River near this station than at the others. Given this assumption, c likely maximum rate of drum impingement was predicted for Waterford 3 based on the average of all stations except Riverside. This average is 0.02 fish per 100,000 gallons of water, or 87,000 drum per year. The actual drum impingement rate observed at Waterford 1 and 2, which can be expectea to be selective for drum because of its withdrawal from near the river bottom, is 0.01 fish per 100,000 gallons. The maxi-mum rate predicted for Waterford 3 is greater than this, which is not likely to occur. A more likely level of impingement of drum by Waterford 3 would be estimated to be 44.000 per year. At an average 5.1-8 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

4 i WSES 3 ER U fish size of 0.09 pound per fish, it can be predicted that Waterford 3 will impinge 4000 lb/yr under average circumstances. These figures are also given in Table 5.1-6.

e. Shad The percent of shad in the total fish impinged at the other stations ,

. investigated was quite variabJe and ranged from 13 to 93 percent. '

The analysis indicated that shad impingement rates were much less in the lower Mississippi River stations than the central Mississippi River and Ohio River stations This can be attributed to the

!                         greater susceptibility of shad in more northern waters; the intake designs (lower Mississippi River intakes draw primarily from bottom
 ;                        waters), and; a breater productivity of the northern waters, with                          1 i                          the exception of the Missouri River which is channelized signifi-cantly.        It is conservatively estimated that shad impingement will be about 45% of the total impingement by Waterford 3. Forty-five percent represents a value in the lower range of relative abundance of shad impinged at stations other than Waterford or Willow Glen (37 to 93%). however, it is significantly higher than that experi-enced at Waterford 1 and 2 (13%), Willow Glen 1 and Willow Glen 4 (15%). The impingement rates at these lower Mississippi River stations might be expected to be somewhat less than that at Waterford 3 which
,                          withdraws water from a greater portion of the water column. However,

[ shad will be less susceptible to impingement than at the upriver stations due to higher water temperatures in the winter and a generally lower productivity of shad in the lower Mississippi River. 2 4 It has been assumed that shad would comprise 45% of the total impingement by Waterford 3, and that combined catfish and drum i impingement will constitute 50%. The sum of the maximum volumetric l rates estimated above for catfish and drum is 0.053 fish per 100,000 ! gallons. Utilizing simple ratios, the maximum likely rate of shad l impingement is predicted to be 0.048 shad per 100,000 gallons. This rate is derivea as follows: T 0.053 x 50 = 45 I 50(x) = (0.053) (45) x = 0.0477 A similar. computation for predicting the likely average rate for shad impingement results in 0.029 shad per 100,000 gallons with-drawn. 8 1 ven a likely average combined rate of 0.032 per 100,000 gallons for catfish and drum. , Table 5.1-6 shows that the impinhement of shad can be conservatively

       -g                 predicted to be between a maximum of 210,000 fish per year and a
         !                likely average of 125,000 fish per year. This would imply an esti-

, mated maximum annual loss of 17,000 pounds of shad or an average l annual loss of 10,000 pounds, based on an average weight of 0.08 i l 5.1-9 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

                                                                                            ~. -         ._ _. -   ,

WSES 3 ER pounds per fish. This poundage of shad is based on an assumed ( impindement of equal proportions of gizzard and theadfin shad, with average weights of s.iS and u.ul pounds per fish, respectively.

f. Other fish dpecies impingement of other fish species (including striped mullet) is conservatively estimated to comprise 5 percent of the total impinge-went at Waterford 3. Thus, the estimated impingement rates of these other tish species can be mathematically derived from the impinde-ment rates of tue dominant fish species. The resultant lupin 6ement rate is estimated to be a maximum of 0.003 fish per 100,000 gallons and a likely ave rage of 0.003 fisn per 100,000 gallons. fable 5.1-6 presents the range of annual impindeiaelit rates for these species.

It aay be noted that stripea mullet was identit led as being a douinant species in the river at Waterford 3. It was not impinded in nign nuubers at Waterford 1 and 2, whici may be due, in part, by its strong swimmin e a y and tendency ta respond effectively to intake water currents in situatioits where generating stations, utilizing once-throu6h coolind from surface water intakes, are located in areas of very high nullet abundance, this species has been found cg a very small percentage of the impingeaent collections Therefore, because of its very low susceptibility of impingement, striped mullet is not considered to be a daminant species in thia analysis although it occurs in 2 relatively hid h abundance in the river. 3.1.3.1.1.3 ausmary of Impingement dfiects Knowled3 e of species couposition of the biological community in the vicin-ity ot Watertord has been obtained froa both the preoperational Environmen-tal survelliance Fruo ram and a review of other ecological studies conducted in tne loser ilississippi River. aased on this Knowledge, neasured lapinge-ment rated at other stations in the vicinity and the design of the Water-tord 3 intane, estiwates 01 impins ement rates were developed. irou these estiaates, a likely maximua rate of impingement by Waterford 3 can be predicted to be 0.106 fish per 100,000 dallons, or 403,000 fish per year, and 0.06 shrimp per 100,000 dallons, or 260,000 shriup per year. Thus a total maximua impingement o '. approximately /20,000 organisms per year can be expected. The more liKely rate of impingemert by Waterford 3 is anticipated to be 0.004 fish per 100,000 gallons, or 277,000 fish per year. River shrimp are predicted to be impinged at 0 010 shrimp per 1d0,000 gallons, or 44,000 shriap per year. Table 5.1-6 presents a suumary of the range of estimated annual impin6ement rates for the dominant species, the number impinged per year and the pounds per year expected to be impinged. fhe iapingement estimates will not necessarily result in permanent loss of this weight of organisms from the Mississippi River each year. The sluice return system, incorporated into the intake structure design, can be anti-cipated to return some of the organisms to the river in a condition which 5.1-10 Amendment No. 2,(10/80)

WSES 3 ER m would result in their survival. Furthermore, it should be noted that Waterford 3 is not expected to operate about 11 percent of the time on an average annual basis. During such times, it is expected that one circulating water pump will be operating which reduces the intake volume by a minimum factor of fif ty percent. These two factors, plus the conservative assutoptions made in developing impingement rates f rom available information at the other stations, indicate that the predictions presented above can be considered to be an upper limit for the rate of impingement which can be expected. To evaluate the ef fect of the predicted range of impingement of aquatic or-ganisms by Waterford 3 to the !!ississippi River as a whole, the poundage estimated to be lost because of impingement can be compared to the commer-cial fish landings. This is one of the few measures available to quantifi-ably place the economic value of impingementgsg

• perspective, and has This comparison been utilized in other analyses of this type .

could be done both in terms of poundage and dollar value. However, this comparison of poundage of fish impinged to poundage of commercial catch is misleading. The average weight of each organism impinged is likely to be significantly below that of a commercial-sized specimen. Direct comparison

    . of poundage of the smaller, younger impinged fish to the poundage of com-mercial landings overlooks the natural and man-made mortality to the popu-lation that occurs as the fish nature. It is necessary, taerefore, to es-tablish a measure by which the value of the fish impinged can be effective-ly compared to commercial use of this resource.

2 (s The American Fisheries Society has calculated the costsgraising an indi-vidual fish of a designated species to a specified size . This value may be termed the " replacement cost" for an individual fish, and has been utilized to determine the compensation for the loss of fish due to water pollution. For consistency, these costs are compared to the value of commercial landings for 1975. Utilizing the average length of the individual impinged fish measured dur-ing the Waterford 1 and 2 impingement study, and the number per year of that species expected to be impinged, the total replacement cost for the species can be calculated. Table 5.1-7 lists these values for catfish, drum, and shad, which together, have been predicted to constitute 95% of the total fish impinged by Waterford 3. The remaining 5% in the impinge-ment of "other species" of fish, and the replacement cost for this group is taken at 5% of the total costs for the catfish, drum and shad. A replace-ment cost for iver shrimp, by length, could not be located. Therefore, to complete Tah;.e 5.1-7, the cost for shrimp was calculated from the 1975 dollar per pound value rted for shrimp taken in the Inland District of the State of Louisiana Table 5.1-7 indicates that the total costs of the fish and shellfish for both the maximum and likely average rates expected to be impinged ranges from a high of approximately $19,000 per year to an average of $10,000 per year. These values may be compared to the 1975 value for the Inland District for fish.and shellfish of $2.95 uillion Therefore, at the O maximum predicted rate, the annual replacement costs for impingement is less than 0.7% of the value of this districts' commercial landings. The replacement costs at the average rate would be less than 0.4% of this value. 5.1-11 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER In evaluating the significance of this comparison, it is inportant to note that the fisheries resources of the Mississippi River make a very small contribution to the commercial landings in the Inland District. The Atchafalaya River and the surrounding bayous a g he source of the breat majority of the districts' commercial landings Therefore, even at the expected raaximum rate, it is apparent that, impinge-ment by Waterford 3 will represent an insignificant economic effect to the fisheries resources of Louisiana and the Inland District. The loss contri-buted by haterford 3 is also from a water source which has minimal contri-bution to these resources. The maximum replacement cost of less than 0.7% of the commercial value is easily obscured by the annual variation in the economic values of the district's landings, which between 1972 and 1977, ranbed from an annual dollar increase of 43% to a decrease of 18% from the preceedinb year. 2 An evaluation of the ecological effect of the predicted rate of impingement is much more difficult than an analysis of effect to the commercial fisher-les resources. Sufficient information is not available to quantitatively define the fish population which occurs in this reach of the Mississippi, or to identify accurately the method of recruitment to that population. Therefore a quantified estimate of changes to the population is not possi-ble. Even it a quantification of the change were possible, it would be hib bly speculative to predict the long-term effects to the entire ecosystem. As previously noted, the volumetric impingement ratn predicted for Water-toru 3 varies between 0.10b to 0.064 fish per 100,000 gallons. This range is within the lower rates that were determined for the other stations studied. In view of this, there is no reason to assume that the ecological effects of impingement by Waterford 3 will be significant. 5.1.3.1.2 Entrainment l Organisms subject to entrainment (entering the intake with the water with-drawn from the river and being pumped through the condenser) into the Waterf ord 3 Girculating Water System include phytoplankton, zooplankton, ichthyoplankton, and juvenile fish and invertebrates small enough to pass through the 1/4 inch clear openings of the traveling screens. Slender , fishes up to 1-1/2 inches in length may also be entrained. However, deeper- l bodied fish such ac shad would be impinged at smaller sizes. Stresses placed on organisms once they are entrained into the plant are thought to include thermal shock, velocity and pressure changes, cheer stress, reduced dissolved oxygen, and periodic boicide treatments. Some studies have indic a t ~' that during entrainment, mechanical damage may agnt for a 2 breate stagc of or6anism nortality than temperature At Waterford 3, the total retention time, af ter the addition of heat, in the Circulating Water System ranges from 238 to 532 seconds (4-9 minutes) while total entrainment time ranges from 337 to 690 seconds '6-12 minutes) l (shown in Table 3.4-2). Temperature elevation (AT) would range from 26 F (14.4 L) at 2 pump operation to 16.1 F (8.9 C) at 4 pump operation (see Section 3.4.2.1). Free available chlorine concentrations at the point 5.1-12 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER z-m \ [ yl of discharge are expected to reach 0.2-0.5 ppm for 2 hours / day when chlorf-nation is necessary. Assuming that entrainment is nonselective and the distribution of organisms in the water body is homogeneous, then the relative number of organisms withdrawn from the community wf]l be directly proportional to the relative amount of water withdrawn f rom the ri ver. This assessment of the impact of entrainment on plankton communities in the lower *fississippi Diver is greatly influenced by the low percentage of river flow expected to be withdrawn by Waterford 3. As described in Section 2.4.2.2, the minimum expected river flow is 100,000 cfs. On a daily basis (see Table 2.4-2), flows of this order of magnitude might occur in any give year. Powe ver , sustained flows (i.e., 7 days) of 100,000 cfs occur only about every 36 years based on daily flow duration data obtained from the USGS for the period of record 1442-1976. As noted in Section 2.4, river flows of 200,000 cfs are more representative of average, long tern (e.g., monthly) typical low river flow conditions. Therefore, flows of 200,000 cfs are considered to be more representative and probably provide a more realistic basis upon which to estimate impacts during low flow conditions. Ne ve r-theless, the effects of Waterford 3 operation are analyzed for both low flow conditions, herein. As presented on Figure 2.4-6, minimum river flows in the range of 200,000 cfs and and 100,000 cfs occur most frequently in the summer and fall seasons, respectively. Based on the average seasonal river water tempera-ture and the CWS operating mode (presented in Section 3.4), the Waterford 3 (nV) Intake withdrawal rate for the summer and fall seasons is 2237 cfs and 1831 cfs respectively. Therefore for the 200,000 cfs river fJow condition, only 1.1 percent of the river flow is entrained through the plant and for the 100,000 cfs case, 1.8 percent is entrained. As shown in Table 5.1-8, flows are at a maximum during the spring when most fish spawn. Based on average spring flows (1042-1o76), the percentage of river flow and/or organisms entrained would be on]y 0.30 percent. 5.1.3.1.2.1 Phythoplankton The impact on phytoplankton entrainment in cooling water systems appears to be due principally to temperature increases. Experiments conducted at In-dian River in Delaware showed that mech relativelylittleeffectonCarbon-14(gicaleffectsofentrainmenthad C) uptake rates of phytoplank-ton, which is an indicator of algal producgvity. Hg r, thermal eleva-ton during entrainment greatly influenced C uptake A 11.7 F l 2 (6.5 C) AT, when ambgnt temperature were below 71.6 F (22 C), re-sulted in increased C uptake. A sim; MrAT, gen ambient temperatures were above 71.6 F (22 C), resulted in teduced C uptake. At another location (Lake Wylie, North Carolina) where intake temperatures varied from 49 F (9.4 C) to 84' (28.9 C),aT's of 10 F, 20 F and 30 5.6 C, 11.1 C and 16.7 C) all resulted in decreased IO C 2 intake . Ingeneral,productivitytendedtodecreasewhegintake 3 temperaturesyncreased. For example, the ratio of the test C uptake to s v

      )  %e control      Cuptakedroppedfrom0.76to0.35withincgasingintake temperature. Mechanical stresses did not seem to affect         C uptake.

l Diatoms, which were the most abundant phytoplankton group in the river 5.1-13 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER at Waterford (see Section 2 .2.1), are generally tolerant to tem-peratures below 86 F (30 C) . Temperatures greater than 86 F (30 C)would be expected to affect diatom productivity adversely. Based l2 on average monthly ambient temperatures, given in Table 2.4-14, and the temperature elevations expected within the Waterford 3 Circulating Water System, water temperatures within the plant would be expected to exceed 86 F (30 C) 50 percent of the time i.e., when ambient river tempera-tures are greater than or equal to 68 F (20 C). Effects of phytoplankton entrainment on lower Mississippi River energy flow are expected to be insignificant, e ven if productivity was temporarily de-pressed during 50 percent of the year in less than 1.3 percent of the ri ver flow. This is due to the following characteristics of the phytoplankton po pu la t ion : a) Phytoplankton communities in the vicinity of Waterford 3 are not diverse and occur in low density (see Section 2.2.1.1.2). b) It appears that detritus is more important than phytoplankton in the lower Mississippi Piver food chain, c) Phytoplankton have relatively short generation times. Doubling time for Coscinodiscus sp, for example, is approximately 30 hours at 18 C (64.4"F). and do ng time for Asterionella formosa is 0.6 hours at 20 C (68 F) Therefore, it is likely that if production is taking place in the river any phytoplankton losses l2 would be compensated for within a short distance of the Waterford 3 discharge. d) Tbc percentage of the total river flow entrained through the plant is low enough that changes in standing crop available to phyto-planktivorous organisms are expected to be inconsequential. 5.1.3.1.2.2 Zooplankton Studies on the effects of entrainment on zooplanke:n show variable results. The impact of entrainment on zooplankton he Connecticut Yankee Plant was primarily a result of thermal effects , anditwasfoundtg mechanical damage accounted for less than 1 percent of the impact . 2 When discharge water temperatures g above 31.0 C (87.8 F), mortality of the zooplankton was 100 percent . During cooler periods, most of l2 the zooplankton survived. When discharge temperatures at the J M Stuart Station on the Ohio River reached 35-37.2 C (95-99 F), 100 g cent of 2 the entrained zooplankton were ki]]ed (Milburn as cited in ). Studies at Millstone Point Generating Station showed, on the contrary, that 70 per-cent of entrained copepods were ed by mechanical or hydraulic stresses (Carpenter et a!, cited by Marcy ). At the Zion Generating Station on l2 Lake Michigan, itwasalsofoundthatmortalityofentrainedzognkton (averag 8.7 percent) was primarily due to mechanical factors 2 Cooley found no inhibition of cladoceran feeding after passage through condensers. If it is assumed that zooplankton entrained in the Waterford 3 Circulating Water System wi]] suffer similar mortalities, 100 percent of the entrained 5.1-14 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER t \ ( ) zooplankton would be expected to be killed when discharge temperatures reach 99 F. This would occur when ambient temperatures are 83 F or greater, which would be 25 percent of the year, as indicated in Table 2.4-14. During most of the year, however, mortality of entrained zooplank-ton would be expected to be lower. The effect of zooplankton entrainment is not expected to be significant for several reasons. Zooplankton samples at Waterford generally show no variation by station (Table 2.2-8) or depth Table 2.2-0), and therefore, entrainment should be proportional to percent of river flow withdrawn. This is expected to be less than 1.3 percent (on an average minimum monthly basis), as shown in Table 5.1-8. In addition, the relatively short generation times of most planktonic invertebrates allow populations to recover rapidly fr ffects of entrainment. For example, using a test pond, Hall et al estimated that rotifers have l2 a 3-fold turnover per week during summer. Studies conducted under natural conditions indicated relative rates of increase for rotifers of 8 percent per day (Keratella aculeata), and 34 percent per day (Asplancbna pridod-onta) (Colditz,1914, and Ahlstrom 1033, cited by Edmondson(35)). Doubling times for small crustaceans such as copepods and cladocera range l2 from to 2 deys (Edmondson et al, 1962 and Hall, 1964, cited by Lauer 2 et a1 ). Therefore, effects of zooplankton entrainment by Waterford 3 l on the lower Mississippi River are anticipated to be noticeable only in the inmediate discharge area where densities may be slightly decreased when ambient tioperature are above 83 F.

 ,,m     Decapod larvae ,ppear in the river from May to September and are most abun-(      )  dant in June and July. Although larvae were not identified to the generic

( ,/ level during the Environmental Surveillance Program, they were probably river shrimp (Macrobrachium ohione). Summer entrainment is expected to affect an average of only 0.8 percent of the total river volume, even though the volume entrained during summer is the highest of the year. If it is assumed that the distribution of river shrimp larvae is uniform, as the distribution of zooplankton appears to be, the percentage of larvae entrained would be the same as the percentage of the river flow entrained. In Section 2.2.2.3.2 ft was indicated that the distribution of zooplankton appeared homogeneous based on statistical analysis of the monitoring program sampling data (Table 2.2-11 and 2.2-12). Thus, the assumption that j the percentage of the zooplankton community entrained by Waterford 3 should be equivalent to the percentage of river flow entrained seems reasonable. An entrainment rate of less than 1.0 percent would not he anticipated to af fect the river shrimp population significantly in the lower Mississippi Rive r. As described in Section 5.1.3.1.1.3, river shrimp (including those carrying eggs) have been found throughout the lower Mississippi River. The numbers of drift macroinvertebrates entrained into the Circulating Water Syatem are expected to be extremely low because of the low densities of benthos and the fact that the mos mmon benthic organisms are not genera]]y found in drift communities Numbers of insect larvae col- 2 l lected in zooplankton samples taken at Waterford wert extremely low (see Appendix 2-4).

  /

i  ! Rj 5.1-15 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

l WSES 3 ER 5.1.3.1.2.3 Ichthyoplankton and Juvenile Fish Mortality of entrained ichthyoplankton and juvenile fish is generally high. Mortality from mechanical damage of fish entrained by a plant on g Con-necticut River has been estimated to be between 72 and 82 percent the fish entrained, clupeids comprised 97.6 percent by numter. Other

                                                                         . Of l2 studies have also found mechanica       mage to be the greatest single cause of entrainment mortality of fish        . Mechanical       y, in general,         2 appearstoincreasewithsizeoforganismentrainedg                 however, not in agreement on the source of entrainment mortality. Kedl all and resultsg Coutant found that fluid-induced stresses generated in a conden-            l2 ser tube system, simulating that of a steam electric plant, resulted in minimal mortality of larval fish and Daphnia.

Although no studies have specifically examired the effects of entrainment on species present in the Mississippi River at Waterford it can be assumed that mortality would be comparable to that described in other studies. To be conservative, mortality of entrained juvenile fish, eggs and larvae is assumed to be 100 percent in this analysis. Ichthyoplankton data from the Lnvironmental Surveillance Program indicate that fish e8b and larval densities in the lower Mississippi River main-stem are low. Data from zooplankton samples collected in 1973-1974 showcd that ichthyoplankton were present in May, June, August and November. In fact, ichthyoplankton were probably pre ent throughout the period extending from May through August. In 1974-1975, ichthyoplankton were sampled in November, February, April and August. Greatest densities were encountered in August, 1975 (mgstly Centrachidae) and November, 1974 (mostly Clupeids) (U.u24 and 0.027/m , respectively). The 1975-1976 sampling showed that ichthyoplankton were present f m March through August, with densities ranging from 0.UU2/m3 to 0.1/m Other studies conducted in the lower Mississippi River mainstem reached similar findings. Although 10 species of ichthyoplankton were commonly encountered near St Francisville (RM 256-266), onlygeeofthese(chubs,

                                                         . Other species        2 carpsuckersanddrum)wereconfinedtothemainste[40)andmayhave were  often more abundant in " extra riverine areas" washed into the mainstem from such habitats. Maximum densities of ichthyo-plankgon in the mainstem near St Francisville were bet          50 and 90 fish /   2 100 m , which occurred in areas of greatest turbulence        . Life history information presented in Appendix 2-3 suggests that most important fish species probab'y spawn largely within shallow backwater areas.

The water withdrawn by the Circulating Water System from April through June is expected to be approximately 0.3 percent of the average river flow, as shown in Table 5.1-8. Water withdrawal during average flow conditions in July and August would account for approximately 0.7 percent of the river discharge. Since larval fish densities appear fairly homogeneously dis-tributed throughout the water column (see Section 2.2.2.3.4), the percent-age of fish larvae should be the same as the percentages given above. The percentage of fist eggs entrained by the Circulating Water System would be expected to be lower than the percentage of water entrained since most of the important species found in the river near Waterford have demersal 5.1-16 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 mm o '/ ER D 6 oo o s 2

      )    adhesive en,y,s. The only exception is the freshwater drum, which has
!          buoyant pelagic eggs.

Juvenile fish in the 111ssissippi River near Waterford would be subject to entrainment in the Circulating Water System when they . ire an inch or less i n h agth. The smallest fish impinged during February 1976 to January 1977 atWaterford1andghichhave1/4inchmeshtravelingscreenslike Waterford 3, were  : 2 i bizzard shad 1.2 inches (31 mm)

                                                                                                                            ;
,                  Threadfin shad            1.1 inches (27 mm) 111ue Catfish             1.0 itsch (26 mm)

Freshwater Drum u.79 inch (20 mm) Fish smaller than these would be expected to be entrained. The Waterford 3 Environme ital Surveillance Prot, ram, using trawls, gill nets and electro-fishing, revealeo only 8 juvenile blue catfish smaller than 30 mm (July 1973). Freshwater drum smaller than 30 mm were collected most abundantly in June 1976, July 1973 and 1976, and September 1973. Gizzard shad smaller than 40 mm as well as threadfin shad smaller than 29 mm were collected inost I abundantly in July 1973 (Table 2.2-23). q l During the months of June, July and September, Waterford 3 intake flows 9 t.11 vithitr..w approxi:aately 0.4-1.0 percent of Ute t otal stverage river f l.w . As discuss eviously, mechanical injury increases with size of entrained fish Also, the high suspended solids g may further increase mortality of entrained fish by causing abrasion . However, entrain.nent of fear th.tu 1 percent of those javaallas ,>cannt in '.he

           '.hterford area would occur. This would not be expected to affect the fish population of the lower blississippi River significantly even if 100 percent mortality of the entrained fish is assumed. As discussed in Section 2.2.2.2.4, the Waterford area is not unique with respect to fish distribu-tion.

5.1.3.1.2.4 Cumulative Eftects of Entrainment In order to more completely assess the effect of withdrawal of river water by the Wterford 3 Circulating Water System on the loser ?!Lastasippi RLver plankton and fish populations, the effects of entrainment of Waterford 1 and 2 and Little Gypsy should also be considered. Under typical low flow conditions (200,000 cf s), the relative quantity of river flow withdrawn by the three W terford units and 1.ittle Gypsy would be 2.3 percent if all units were operated at full capacity. Similarly, for the extre:ne low flow conditions (100,000 cfs), about .4 percent of the river flow would be en-trained. This represents an increase of approximately one and one half I times the present e t tal ttive +it e ttnannt rates during the extreme low flow condition at Waterford 1 and 2 and Little Gypsy. Table 5.1-9 presents the CN percent of the monthly average river flow predicted to be withdrawn by l I Haterford 1 and 2 and Waterford 3. I 5.1-17 Amendment No. 2, (10/80) j

WSES 3 ER As described in the preceeding sections, the effects of entrainment by the Waterford 3 Circulating Water System on phytoplankton, zooplankton, and ichthyoplankton on the lower Mississippi River ecosystem are expected to be insignificant. The cumulative water withdrawal of Waterford 1 and 2, Water-ford 3 and Little Gypsy also appear very low in relation to river flow. The low percentage of river flow withdrawn and the non uniqueness of the river in the Waterford area (eg, fish spawning is not concentrated in this area in preference to other areas) result in the cumulative effects of en-trainment also being insignificant to the lower Mississippi River ecosystem. 5.1.3.2 Effects of Thermal Discharge The predicted temperature changes which will occur in the lower hississippi River as a result of the combined thermal discharges of Waterford 3, Water-ford 1 and 2 and Little Gypsy, are presented in Table 5.1-4 and Figures I 5.1-2 through 5.1-11. The ecological ef fects of the thermal discharge on the lower Mississippi River ecosystem are expected to be insignificant. This conclusion is based on the following f actors: in the Waterford area of the Mississippi River, there are no threatened or endangered aquatic species; the dominant in-digenous species present have relatively high thermal tolerances; the habitats characterizing the area are not unique, there is a lack of criti-cal spawning areas; and the thermal plume is basically a surf ace phenomenon. 5.1.3.2.1 Effects of Thermal Discharg. on Phytoplankton Communities In summer, when average river temperatures are 83-86 F (28.3-30 C), the opt' num temperatures of the dominant phytoplankton in the Waterford area, diatoms (see Section 5.1.3.1.2.1), will be exceeded inside the 5 F (2.8 C) isotherm of the plume. Ambient temperatures will be expected to be above 82 F approximately 16 percent of the year. tbweve r , travel time through the plume would only be 64 minutes. The generally low den-sities of phytoplankton and the several f actors limiting production (discussed in Section 2.2.2), indicate that this community would not be stressed or changed. Therefore, the impact of thermal discharge on the lower Mississippi River phytoplankton community would not be expected to be significant. In addition, nuisance species, such as some species of blue green algae (cyanophytes), are in low relative abundance within the present phytoplank-ton community, as shown in Table 5.1-10. Therefore, levels of nuisance species within the existing phytoplankton community are not anticipated to become a problem. The results of the Environmental Surveillance Program have indicated that " algal blooms" in the sense that blooms are usually con- j strued and noticeable as surf ace mats or odors variously described as " septic", " fishy", " grassy", e tc. have never been observed. Based on river morphometry, river flows and the areas of high temperature increase and the travel time through the high temperature area of the plume; algal blooms < would not be expected. Nevertheless, during ex gg e low flow conditions (100,000 cfs), phytoplankton doubling time data suggest that travel 2 times through the combined plume created at such times (9 hours through j the entire extent ot the 3.6 F excess temperatura isotherm) might cause 5.1-18 Amendrent No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER q \

    / a local increase in the productivity of some blue green algae. In addi-tion it should be noted that the nine hour exposure to these excess temper-atures is toward the lower limit of the doubling time range and taking into consideration both the areas affected and the nature of the riverine habi-tat it is unlikely that a situation where blue green growths due to the Waterford 3 discharge would create noticeable tastes or odors for down-stream users or affect dissolved oxygen concentrations in the plume area.          1 Without the Waterford 3 discharge, the travel time through zones of excess t empe rature greater than 3.6 F created by the combined thermal plumes (Waterford 1 and 2 and Little Gypsy) during the extreme flow condition is about eight ho urs . This eight hour travel time is only one hour less than the postulated situation with Waterford 3 operating.

5.1.3.2.2 Zooplankton Plume t empe ra tures in the immediate vicinity of the discharge (AT = 16.1 F, 8.9 C) during the summer would exceed the lethal thresh-olds of some of the zooplankton species present in the Mississippi near

                                  . The average ambient summer temperature within Waterford(TableA2.2.2-1]C) the river is 84.3 F (29.1      (Table SA-8). Iloweve r , the exposure time of zooplankton to elevated temperatures at 100 F (5.6 C) would be short (less than 30 minutes), and the area within the 10 F (5.6 C) isotherm (which is much larger than the area which would be encompassed by a AT of 16.1 F) during summer average flow conditions, for example, comprises a maximum of only 2.2 percent of the cross-sectional area of the river, as shown on Table 5.1-4.

(V) During extreme low flow conditions, the 10 F AT isotherm from Waterford 1 and 2 and Little Gypsy occupies a volume conservatively estimated at 230 acre-feet and a maximum of two percent of the river cross-section. Addi-tion of the Waterford 3 discharge approximately doubles these figures. Cumula t ive travel times, however, through the greater than 10 F excess temperature zones on the Waterford side of the river, are predicted to be 1 unchanged after the addition of the Waterford 3 discharges (i.e., 2 hours). Therefore, the addition of the Waterford 3 thermal discharges to those presently occurring does not significantly change the thermal impacts on the aquatic community near Waterford. Zooplankton densities in the lower Mississippi River are low, and many of the species present appear to be washed into the river from other habitats (i .e. , backwater areas , sloughs, etc. ) . Zooplankton productivity in the lower Mississippi River is probably limited (Section 2.2.2.2.2), and the potential effects of any changes in the zooplankton community resulting from thermal discharges are expected to be insignificant. 5.1.3.2.3 Benthic Invertebrates Benthic invertebrates in most of the Waterford area would not be expected to be af fected by the combined thermal plume of Waterford 1 and 2, and Waterford 3 and Little Gypsy since the 3.6 F (2 C) isotherm does not A extend deeper than about 11 feet below the surface during average seasonal V} { flow conditions, or abour 14 feet during typical low flow conditions (Table 5A-ll). Ilowever, the 3.6 F portion of the plume may touch submergeq bank areas of a cross-section of the river at Waterford (up to 39,900 f t~, l l l 5.1-19 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 Gyg D i which represents 1.9 percent oi wetted perimeter during average winter and sprinb flow conditions). During the ry uical low flow conuitions (zuu,Ouu cfs), the 3.6 F (2 C) excess isotherm mf the Wateriord 1 and 2 thermal plume extends 3 f t (1 m) below the surface ii the river and contacts up to 22,187 ft (approximately 1/2 acre) of river bottom. The addition of Waterford 3 will not signifi-cantly increase this exposure. During average spring and winter flow con-ditions, the audition or Wat.cford 3 .ill increase the area of bottom in contact with the 3.6 F (2 C) AI isotheru by approximately 1 acre. During the extreme low flow conditions of 100,000 cfs, 2 acres of benthic area on the Waterford shore would be af fected by temperatures in excess of 3.6 F above ambient under present conditions (i.e. that affected by the operation of Waterford 1 and 2, and Little Gypsy). Waterford 3 is esti- 1 mated to increase the total benthic area af fected to 2.6 acres. Alto-gether, this is a v e ry small portion of the availabic benthic habitat in this area of the Mississippi River. Densities of benthic macroinvertebrates in the Waterford area were found to be extremely low (Section 2.2.2), and considering the low percentage of we tted perime ter aficcted , no significant effect of thermal discharbe on the benthic community is expected. The dominant benthic taxa collected at the site were Lorbicula anu oligochaete worms. Corbicula has an upper tol-erance of approximately 93.2 F (34 G) (Table A2.2.2-1). Aquaticoligh3) 2 chaetes also benerally have high tolerances to environmental stresses . Therefore, no significant eficct on these organisms is expected as a result of incorporation of or3anisms into the discharge plume. 5.1.3.2.4 Feladi c Invertebrates River shriap (Macrobrachium ohione) is the only couuon corrurcial shellfish present in the Waterford area; it has an upper temperature tolerance which appears to be about 86 F (39 G) (Table A2.2.2-1). Under average surmaer seasonal 110w conditions, when ambient temperatures are greater than 81 F (27.2 C), temperatures within the 5 P AT isotherm will exceed 86 F. m rase at Lient teuperatures are above 81 F about 20 percent of an average year. The 5 i AT isotherm would occupy 4.5 percent of the river crow sectiuual area uuring suumer average flow conditions, to a maximum depth of 19 feet, comprising 472 acre-feet. Travel time through the maxi-mum length of this isotherm would be approximately 1 hour. At other times of the year, the plume volume exceeding 86 F would naturally be smaller. For example, 3 acre-feet would be af fected when the 10.1 F AT is superim-posed on ambient temperatures of 69.7 F (Spring), and 450 acre-feet are affected by the 10 F AT isotherm if ambient temperatures of 76 F and 1 extreme low flows (10u,000 cfs) happen to coincide. As indicated in bections 2.2.2.3.3 and 5.1.3.1.1.3, the Mississippi River near the Waterford site is not unique in terms of habitat for M_. ohione. because the Waterford 3 discharge will affect only a small portion of its habitat, nc sib nificant effect on the river shrimp population is expected. 5.1-20 Amendment No.2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER 5.1.3.2.5 Fi n 5.1.3.2.5.1 Thermal Tolerance As indicated in Section 2.2.2.4, most of the fish collected during the 19/3-1976 Waterford 3 Environmental Surveillance Program were juvenile blue catfish, juvenile gizzard shad, juvenile threadfin shad, juvenile fresh-water drum, and striped mullet. Thermal tolerances for these species are presented in table a2.2.2.-l. During most of the summer, temperatures within the 10 F (5.6 C) iso-therm would be close to but would probably not exceed the lethal thres-holds for most of these species, especially given the short exposure time Ilowever when ambient temperatures (31 minutes)andgossibility of escape. g isotherm would are above 86 F (Ju L), temperatures within the 10 F exceed tolerances of some shad). This occurs during fish (eg, freshwater drum , small gizzard 2.5 percent of the year. Nevertheless, a com-l2 bination of factors would suggest that insib nificant damage to juvenile and adult fish would occur as a result of elevated summer temperatures. Prin-cipal among these are the small area affected by the 10 F AT isotherm (2.4 percent 01 the cross ss.ctional area), and the fact that the 10 F isotherm extenus down to a uepth ot only approximately 7 feet as shown in Table 5a-11. all of the coumercial species, as indicated in Section 2.2.2.4.1, are primarily bottom feeders ano should not be greatly affected by a surface thermal plume. It is expected that most fish would avoid i (A) V ereas of significantly unf avorable temperature, irrespective of their capa-bilities to tolerate such elevated temperature for limited time periods. 5.1.3.2.5.2 Cold Shock During the winter months (January, February, March), it would be expected

;         that fish would be attracted to the warm water of the thermal plume.      From 1951 throubh 1976, the average monthly Mississippi River water temperature at the Ninemile Point Generating Station (25.6 miles downstream of the I

Waterford site) was 45 F (7.2 C) in January and February, and 51 F (10.6 C) durinh becember, as given in Table 2.4-14. Minimum temperatures of 39 F(3.9"c) and 40 F (4.4 C) were reported for January and Feb-ruary, respectively. The U S Environmental Protection Agency ) has developed a graph to estimate allowable winter temperature increases such that cold shock will l2 not occur. The graph is given in Figure 5.1-16. In the immediate vicinity of the Waterford 3 discharge, where AT's are about 25 F in winter, the potential for cold shock will exist when ambient temperatures are less than 48"F (which occurs approximately 20 percent of the year). However, an extremely small volume of water (about 2 acre-feet), would be affected by a AT greater than 25 F (13.9 C) and that should preclude extensive cold shock damage should it occur. Gizzard shad, one of the dominant fish species in the Waterford area, would be especially susceptible to cold shock. Table A2.2.2-1 cites a case of the J M Stuart Plant in Ohio where O

  \   /

an instantaneous temperature drop from 78 F (25.6 C) to 48 F (8.9 C) was implicated in the death of 7540 fish. Gizzard shad and threadfin shad in the immeaiate vicinity of the discharge would probably suffer some mor-tality as a result of shutdown when ambient temperatures are below 48 F. 5.1-21 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER Cattish would be expected to survive a shutdown, although juveniles might theoretically be subject to increased predation in the immediate discharge vicinity (Table a2.2.2-1). Again, the small area invo hed would eliminate the possibility or a significant number of fish being affected by cold shock. 5.1.3.2.5.3 Effect on Spawning Fish The Mississippi River in the vicinity of the Waterford 3 site does not pro-vide a habitat suitable f or spawning of most fish species. To the extent that sheltereo locations are available (including cans, snags, etc), a . limited number of catfish may spawn near the haterford 3 site. Other species that may he capable of spawning in this portion of the river in-clude treshwater drum, gizzard shad, threadfin shad, river carpsucker and skipjack herring, although the spawninb habitat appears suboptimal even for these species. This is supported by the low densities of ichthyoplankton taken as part of the Environmental Surveillance Program. Many of the ich-thyoplankton found in the area are probably washed out of more f avorable spawning habitat in upstream areas. Except for the freshwater drum, whose ebgs are buoyant, those species ex-pected to spawn near the Waterford 3 site have demersal and/or adhesive eggs. Because of the buoyant character of the thermal plume, most eggs are not likely to be exposea (even briefly) to large increases in water temperature it they remain intact in their expected habitat. No signifi- j cant reduction in the number of adult freshwater drum is expected to result from exposure of younger life stages to the thermal discharge, in view of the low numbers of larvae collected in the river (Section 2.2.2.2.4) and I the high fguity of the species (approximately 200,000 to 350,000 eggs per female ). 2 5.1.3.2.5.4 Zone of Passage The predicted extent of the thermal plume from the Little Gypsy ar.d the Watertoro 1 and 2, and Waterford 3 discharges tor average flow conditions I during each of four seasons is given in Tabh 5.1-4 and Figures 5.1-2 l through 5.1-5. These show the 3.6 F (2 C) A T surface isotherm encom-passes the entire width of the river during average summer and fall flow conditions. However, the typical low flow cross-sectional profile (Figure y 5.1-9) indicates that a large zone of passage will exist beneath the plume even curinh the typical low flow conditions. The depth of the 3.6 F isotherm will extend from approximately 6 to 11 feet during various parts of the year. The isotherm extends deeper in summer and fall than in winter and spring. The zone of passage will represent 90 percent of the river cross-sectional area in fall and 96.6 percent in spring. Figures 5.1-10 anc 11 illustrate the predicted thermal plume cross-sec-tional profile at river mile 129.2 and 128.5, respectively, for the extreme low flow condition. Each of these figures is based on full load operation of all the power generating units at both the Waterford and Little Gypsy j stations. During these rare occasions, (i.e., extreme low flow and all units operating at peak load), the zone of passage at the Little Gypsy - Waterford transect (River Mile 129.2) is conservatively estimated to be approximately 83 percent of the river cross section. 5.1-22 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

i I WSES 3 . ER O

   \ ,,/          5.1.3.2.5.5       Discharge Canal

] '

,                 Temperatures in the discharhe canal are expected to be greater than or equal to 97 F (36 C) during 22 percent of the year. Extended ex'posure to such temperature should result in mortality of some species found in
!                 the Waterford area if they were confined to the canal. However, the velo-

! city at the distal end of the discharge canal would be approximately 7.6 j ft/sec. This velocity would prevent organisms from entering the canal via the river and would thus obviate exposure to lethal temperatures in the canal. The fate of organisms entrained into the Circulating Water System and subsequently through the discharge canal is discussed in Section 5.1.3.1.2. During January and February, when monthly ambient river temperatures average 46 F (7.8 C), temperatures in the canal will approach 72 F (22.2 c) and velocities at the river end of the canal will be 1.2 to 4.7 fps. These warmer temperatures and lower current velocities could result 4 in fish being attracted to the canal, which, in the event of shutdown, could cause cold shock to fish in the discharge canal. This would be similar to that discussed for the immediate discharge area in Section 5.1.3.2.5.2. That volume affected within the canal (when water levels are not higher than the canal walls) would be 11,124 cubic yards (6.9 acre feet). 5.1.3.2.5.6 Overall Effect of Thermal Plume on Fish Community As discussed above, discharge temperatures would not be expected to be lethal for most of the fish species found in the Waterford area during most of the year. This excess heat is quickly dissipated in the Missi-1 ssippi River, and the effect of any impact which may result from the i thermal discharge of Waterford 3 would be extremely localized. Further- , more, since the river near the Waterford site is not unique when compared to other portions of the lower Mississippi River and because this area is f not known to be critical and/or threatened habitat type for any fish ! species, the thermal effects of the operation of Waterford 3 are not anti-cipated to be significant. ] , l i 4 4-i. l

          ~

, ~ l 1 I I l 5.1-23 Amendment No. 2, (10/80) r I, . .- .- - _, __ . . _ ~ _ _ , _ . _ _ , . _ . _ . .. - _-- ._ . , _ _ .

WSES 3 ER ( j)f 'REFFPENCES

1. Louisiana Stream Control Commission, State of Louisiana Water Ouality Criteria.

2. Texas Instruments, " Apparent Surface Radiomet. ; Temperature - I.ittle Gypsy P lant", Company Report. 1970.

3. Ebasco Services Inc., "Ef fect of lieated Water Discharge on the Temperature Distribution of Elississippi River", Company Report, 1971.

4. Ebasco Services Inc., " Interim Report - Waterford SES Ilydrographic Studies on the Mississippi River", Company Report, 1973.

5. Geo-Marine, Inc., "3D Thermal Plume Measurements", Company Peport.

1973.

6. Geo-Marine, Inc., "3D Thermal P lume Measurements", Company Report.

1074.

7. F,haSco Services Inc., "Waterford SFS - Summary of Ilydrologic Studies",

Company Report. 1974.

8. Geo-Marine, Inc., "First Operational Fydrothernal Study - Paterford

    ~s          SFS", Conpany Report. 1"76.                                                '
  \- -      G. Geo-Marine, Inc., "Second Operational Fydrothermal Study, Water-ford SFS", Company Peport. 1077.

10. Geo 'farine, Inc. "A Current Drogue Study in the Vicinity of T.ouisiana Power and T ight's Little Gypsy and Waterford 1 and 2 Generating Stations", Company Report. 1977.

11. J E Edinger and E M Polk, Jr, " Initial Mixing of Thermal Discharges

               -Into a Uniform Current", Vanderbilt University Report #1. 1969.

12. M A Shirazi and I. R Davis, " Workbook of Thermal Plume Prediction -

Volume 2 - Surface Discharge", E7vironmental Protection Agency Report # EPA-R2-72-005b.1974.

13. W E Dunn, A J Policastro and R A Paddock, " Surface Thermal Plumes:

Evaluation of Mathematical Models for the Near and Complete Field", Argonne National Laboratory Report #ANL/WR-75-3. 1975. 4 14. Louisiana Power and Light Co., " Demonstration Under Section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act, Waterford Steam Electric Station, Unit No.3". April 1979. 2 l

15. Equitable Environmental Health "Meramec Power Plant, Entrainment and

! Impingement Effects on Biological Populations of the Mississippi i Pi ve r" . Prepared for Union Electric Co., St. I.ouis, Missouri .

       )

July, lo76. , s_- 5.1-24 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER REFERENCES (Cont'd)

16. Equitable Environmenta l Health, " Sioux Power Plant Entrainment and Impingement Ef fects on Biological Populations of the Mississippi River". Prepared for Union Electric Co., St. Louis, Missouri July, 1976.

17. Pulifson, R., and M Huish, " Temperature and Current Velocity Effects on Juvenile Striped Pfullet, Spot, and Pinfish Swimming Performance".

Report to Carolina Power and Light Co., Daleigh, N.C. December, 1475.

18. Hogarth, W., Carolina Dower and Light Co. , Personal communication, 1079 10 MacP he rson , K . , " Impingement Studies at the Brunswick Steam Electric Station, Southport, M.C., 1075-1976". Carolina Power and Light 2

Co., Raleigh, N.C. March, 107a.

20. Southwest Research Association, Inc., Unpublished Impingement data for the Cedar Bayou Generating Station, 1477.

21. American Fisheries Society, Monetary Values of Fish, The Pollution Committee, Southern Division. 1975.

22. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, " Louisiana Loadings, Annual Summary, 1975". In cooperation with the Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Commission, 1976.

23. National Marine Fisheries Service. Personal communication, April 4, 1979.

24. Marcy, B C, Jr. " Vulnerability and Survival of Entrained Organisms at Water Intakes, with Emphasis on Young Fishes". American Society of Civil Engineers. Power Divisions Specialty Conference, Boulder, Colorado - Session V - Environmental Ef fects. 1974.

25. Brooks, A S, "Phytoplankton Entrainment Studies at the Indian River Estuary, Delaware", in Cooling Water Studies for Electric Power Pe-search Institute - RP-44 Proceedings of the Second Workshop on En >

trainment and Intake Screening Report No. 15 - Johns Fopkins Univer-sity. 1974.

26. Curtz, M E and C Pi Weiss, "Desponse of Phytoplankton to Thermal Stress,"

in Cooling Water Studies for Electric Power Research Institute Screening - Johns Hopkins University. 1974.

27. Lanza,G R and J E Cairn, Jr. " Physio-Morphological Ef fects of Abrupt Thermal Stress on Diatoms" Trans Amer Micros Society 91(3): 2 276-298. 1972.

28. Fogg, C E, Algal Cultures and Phytoplankton Ecology. The University of Wisconsin Prer.s. 1965.

5.1-25 Amendment No.2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER h (j REFEPENCES (Cont'd)

29. Merriman, D and L M Thorpe, Introduction to The Connecticut River Study, The Impact of a Fuclear Dower Plant. Monograph Fumber one, AGS. 1976.

30. Massengill, R P, "Entrainment of Zooplankton at the Connecticut Yankee Plant," in The Connecticut River Ecological Study, The Impact of a Nuclear Power P lant. D Merriman and Lyle Thorpe, eds. Monograph Number One, AFS. 1976.

31. Edsal, T A and T G Yo, cum, Feview of Recent Technical Information Con-cerning the Adverse Effects of Once-Through Cooling on Lake Michigan.

U S Fish and Wildlife Service. 1972.

32. Nalco Environmental Sciences, " Compilation of Reports Relating to Entrainment and Impingement Studies at Zion Generating Station." Vol.

1, 1476.

33. Cooley, J M "Pesponse of Natural Communities (Phytoplankton, Zooplank-ton, Ichthyoplankton) To Entrainment Experiences." Paper presented at the Nineteenth Conference on, Great Lakes Pesearch, University of Guelph. 1076

34. Hall, D J, W E Cooper and E E Werner, "An Experimental Approach to the 7s j Production Dynamics and Structure of Freshwater AnimaJ Conmunities."

(N- / Limnology and Oceanography Vol. XV, No. 6. Fovember, 1070.

35. Edmondson, U T " Factors in the Dynamics of Rotifer Dopulations."

Ecol Mongr 16. 1046.

36. Lauer, C J, et al, "Entrainment Studies on Hudson River organisms."

Cooling Water Studies for Electric Power Research Institute PP-49. Proceedings of the Second Workshop on Entrainment and Intake Screening Report No. 15 - John ilopkins University. 1974. , i

37. Waters, T F, "The Drif t of Stream Insects" Ann Rev Entom: 253-272.

1972.

38. Marcy, B C, " Planktonic Fish Eggs and Larvae of the Lower Connecticut j River and the Ef fects of the Connecticut Yankee Plant Including En-trainment". In The Connecticut River Ecological Study, The Impact of a Nuclear Power Plant. D Merriman and Lyle M Thorpe, eds. Monograph Number One, AFS. 1975.

39. Kedl, R J and C C Coutant, " Survival of Juvenile Fishes Feceiving Thermal and Mechanical Stresses in a Simulated Power Plant Condenser". i In Thermal Ecology II, Each sad McFarlane, eds. NTIS Conference 750425. 1976.

[] 40. ..o .aer, J V, " Observations on the Ichthyoplankton of the Lower Missis-sippi River" ASB Bulletin, Vol. 23, No. 2. April 1976. ( ) 5.1-26 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER REFERENCES (Cont'd)

41. Conner, J V, Personal Communication. April 7, 1977.

42. Espey, Huston & Associates, Inc, Annual Data Report Waterford Power Station Units 1 & 2 Screen Impingement Studies - February 1976 -

January 1977. Prepared for Louisiana Power & Light Company. May, 1977.

43. Pennak, R W, Freshwater Invertebrates of the U S. The Ronald Press Company, New York. 1953.

44. Reutter, J M and Herdendorf C E, " Thermal Discharge from a Nuclear 2 Power P lant: Predicted Ef fects on Lake Erie Fish" The Ohio Journal of Science, Vol. 76 (1). 1076.

45. Louisiana "ower & T,ight Company, " Environmental Report, Construction permit Stage, Waterford SES Unit No. 3, Docket No. 50-382." T.% eary 24, 1072. Table II-E-2-3.

46. U S Environmental "rotection Agency, Ouality Criteria for Water.

1076.

47. Scott, W B and E J Crossman, Freshwater Fishes of Canada. Fisheries Research Board of Canada, Ottawa, 1973.

O O Amendment No. 2, (10/80) 5.1-27

                                                                                                          -.    -.        .     . ..                          - .    .      -. - - , -      . - .      ..- . ~ _ _ _ _ . . . - . . . - . . - _ . _ , .             . , - - . ~ - -

WSES 3 ER TABLE 5.1-5 LOCATION. DESIGN AND OPERATION OF INTAKES AT THE ELEVEN STUDY STATIONS AND AT WATERFORD 3 Facility Intake Type Location of Intake Average Intake Average Intake Water Recirculated Capacity'(cfs) Velocity (fps) For Ice Control Waterford I and 2 Offshore (inverted pipe) Outer edge of shoal 870 1.1 No. Waterford 3 Shoreline Straight shoreline 1840 13 No [ Willow Glen 1 Offshore (inverted pipe) Outer bank of Meander 200 1.6 N3 [ Willow Glen 4 Offshore (horizontal pipe) " 4 00 1.2 No l

Wood River Shoreline Straight shoreline 600 1.0 Yes Meramec

• 2 Shoreline 7 60 1.4 Yes Sioux Canal
• 830 1.4 Yes (Riverside Old Shoreline
• 20 1.4 Yes

[ Riverside New Shoreline " 50 1.4 Yes Labadie Shoreline Pooled River 1610 3.0 Yes Hawthorn Shoreline Straight River 580 0.3 Yes Council Bluffs Shoreline Outer bank of Meander 140 1.3 Yes Gallagher Shoreline Outer bank of Meander 410 0.9 Yes s

• Under influence of discharge from Waterford 1 and 2 3,

o, a

             ?

e d ^ El 8 h 1 1 i J

_~ ,_. _ _ WSES 3 d

   \

1ABLE 5.1-6 EST1 MATED NUMBER OF ORGAN 1bMS 10 BE 1hPINGED AT WATERFORU 3 Fibh - LIKELY MAXIMOM Vol. Race per 4 bige;cies 100,000 Gal ha./Yr w Lbs/Yr*w 4 Blue Cattish .0 10 111,000 2,600 thannel Cattish .003 13,100 O'> 0 urum .020 67,000 o,000

 .           Snad                                                               .04d                           210,000                                          17,000 1

Other .00) 22,U00 - I I 101AL .lub 4 b 3,100 2o,250 2 FISH - LIKELY AVERAGE J

.            Blue Catfish                                                        .U20                              o7,000                                          1,700 0                                                                                                                                                                                       l l             Channel Cattish                                                     .002                                  6,700                                               400 urum                                                                .010                             44,000                                           4,000 Shad                                                                .029                          125,000                                          10,000                 !

Otner .003 13,100 -

                                                                                                                                                                                       ]

1 l l TOTAL .064 277,600 - 16,100 -- 1 i Shrim9 i

!                                                                                                                                                                                      i i

a Likely Maximum .060 200,000 1,040 ' j Likely Average .010 44,000 180 l

• 5 At average intake race of 6.3 x 10 gpm At averag- weights of individual commercially importcut fish impinged I Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER O' TABLE 5.1-7 ( sheet 1 of 2 ) ECONOMIC COSTS OF PREDICTED IMPINGEMENT BV WATERFORD 3 Average Replacement Length Cost No/Yr Pre- Total pe r per dicted to Replacement Species Specimen

• Specimen ** be Impinged Cost LIKELY MAXIMUM Blue Catfish 3.3 in. $0.05 131,000 $ 6,550 Channel Catfish 2.9 in. $0.05 13,100 $ 655 Drum 2.7 in. $0.06 87,000 $ 5,220 Shad 2.9 in. $0.02 210,000 $ 4,200 4 Other Fish Species + - - -

                                                                                                         $      R31 V

i Shrimp -

                                                                $1.43/lb               1,040 1h            S 1, /f TOTAL           $18,943 J         LIKELY AVERAGE l               Blue Catfish             3.3 in.                 $0.05                87,000                $ 4,350

,I Channel Catfish 2.9 in $0.05 8,700 $ 435 Drum 2.7 in $0.06 44,000 $ 2,640 Shad 2.9 in $0.02 125,000 $ 2,500, Other Fish Species + - - -

                                                                                                           $    496 Shrimp"                       -
                                                         $1.57/]b"                  180 1 h"               S'   257"

! TOTAL 10,704 O

O

• From Vaterford 1 and 2 impingement study.

i Amendment No.2, (10/80)

b 1 a WSES 3

ER i

TABLE 5.1-7 (sheet 2 of 2 ) i ** i Based on hatchery costs given in: American Fisheries Society, l The Pollution Committee, Southern Division, " Monetary Values J of Fish". 1975.

                      +                                                                                                                                                                                        '

j Calculated value as 57 of total replacement costs of catfish, drum, l 3 j and sbad; hased on proportion of total fish predicted to be impinged, i

                      ++

A hatchery cost per shrimp is not available. Costs, therefore, are 2 calculated on basis of 1075 values per pound for shrimp from the Inland District of Louisiana. National Marine Fisheriea c ervice, " Current Fisheries Statistics 1 No. 6922, Louisiana Landings, Annual Summary 1975". i l. 1 4 I i

t i + 1 I i l i I 4 l I 1 l Amendment No.2, (10/80) l 4 e ~. c- --.--n, --- ,nn,,.. . .---,.------,n ,,,, ,n,. ,.-,..---,._-...-,....-,-----.,..,.-,.._--_,--,---.,,,n,-,n

/O V SITE ANhUAL X/G DATA, SEC/M3' DIR 0. 0- 1. " 1.-2. 7.-3. 3.-4. 4.-M. N 5.960E-07 3. 480E-O'/ 1.880E-07 1.220E-07 9.120E-08 1.630E-07 1.070E-07 8.010E-08 NNE~4.200E-07 NE 4.960E-072.280E-07 3.000E-07~~1.240E-07 8.190E-08 6.260E-08 ENE 3.350E-07 2.150E-07 1.220E-07 8.260E-08 6.410E-08 E 3.110E ^7 1.720E-07 9.410E-08 6.290E-08 4.850E-08

                                                                      ~

ESE ~3Tf 70s-07 Y,130k-of i~.090E- 07 6.970E-08 5.190E-08 SE 5.730E-07 2.950E-07 1.450E-07 8.890E-OH 4.380E-08 SSE 8.120E-07 3.570E-07 .1.690E-07 ~1.010E-07 7.100E-08 S 'S.570E-07 2.720E-07 1.300E-07 7.720E-08 5.390E-OH SSW 7.750E-07 3.340E-07 1.580E-07 9.360E-OR 6.530E-OR SW 1.080E-06 4.210E-07 1.990E-07 .1.190E-07 R.320E-08

                           ~   ~  ~~       ~                            ~

WSW f".'660E-07 3.li90E 07 ' f.~790E-67 1.100E-07'7.860E-08 W 3.680E-07 2.070E-07 1.050E-07 6.500E-OH 4.650E-08 WNW 7.340E-07 4.210E-07 2.120E-07 1.300E-07 9.210E-OP NW --g.53'OEA)7 T~580E--OF2.330E Z O7 1.450E-07 1.0SOE-07 NNW G.530E-07 4.400E-07 2.290E-07 1.460E-07 1.090E-07 m -10. 10.-20. 70.-30. 30.-40. 40.-50. N 5.950E-00 2.820E-08 1.600F-OR 1.1 R '? -M 9.0 70E -09 NNE 5.260E-08 2.510E-OR 1.500E-08 1.060E-O'J 8 .15 0E--O ' NE 4.270E-08 2.120E-OH 1.200E-OH 9.1'70E-09 7.100E-09 ENE 4.470E-00 2.250E-OR 1.370E-OH 9.830E-09 7.630E-09 E 1.360E-OR 1.690E-OR I.030F-OR 1. 390F- 09 1 740E-09 ESE 3.400E-OR 1.640E-08 9.HJOF-09 A . 960 F-O'3 5.170U-09 SE 3.880E-08 1.730E-OR 1. 000E-OR 6. 960F-O'+ 5. L"> 0 6 -09 SSE 1.160E-08 1.780E-OR 1.010E-08 6.960E-09 5.740F-O'r S 3.100E-08 1.290E-09 7.240E-09 4.920E-09 3.AROE-09 SSW 3.750E-08 1.560E-OR H.750E-09 5.950E-09 4. 4'iOF-09 SW 4.820E-08 2.030E-08 1.150E-OR 7.820E-cv 5.9700-0o WSW 4.710E-OR 2.()50E-08 1.1ROF-08 R.100E-09 A .1 10 0--O ? W 2.780E-08 1.200E-08 6.860E-09 4.710E-09 3. W F-09 WNW 5.420E-08 2.310E-08 1.310E-08 8.94GE-09 6 710E-0V NW g,43og.-08 2.900E-08 1.6 ROE-03 1.170R-OH 8.990F-oY NNW 7.020E-08 3.320E-OR 1.970E-OR 1.390E-08 1.070E-08

• CO CENTRATION PER CUBIC METER " D T D ]D

               " MILES FROM WATERFORD 3                                   , w Jg  ,          )      .=a t DENOTES POWER OF TEN C

{ Amendment No. 2, (10/80) LOUISIANA Table POWER & LIGHT CO. Waterford Steam RELATIVE NOBLE GAS CONCENTRATIONS 5.2-2 Electric Station

k

  'u
      )

SITE ANNUAL DECAYED 3 DEPLETED X/O DATA, SEC/M3' DIR O.0-1.** 1.-2. 2.-3. 3.-4. 4.-5. N 5.710E-07t3.400E-07 1.830E-07 1.190E-07 8.920E-08 NNE 4.770E-07 2.940E-07 1.600E-07 1.040E-07 7.850E-08 NE 4.050E-07 2.230E-07 1.210E-07 8.010E-08 6.130E-08 ENE 3.250E-07 2.110E-07 1.200E-07 8.110E-08 6.300E-08 7,'000E2 07 1.680E-07 Y.210E-08'~6.160E-08 4.760E-08

                                       ~ ~~                               ~

E ESE 3.540E-07 2.090E-07 1.070E-07 6.800E-08 5.070E-08 SE 5.530E-07 2.880E-07 1.410E-07 8.630E-08 6.190E-08 SSE y,1300E-O' 7 "3.470E-07 '1. 640E-07 9. 740E-08 6.840E-08

                                                        ~~          ~ ~ ~

S 5.360E-07 2.650E-07 1.260E-07 7.460E-08 5.200E-08 SSW 7.480E-07 3.250E-07 1.530E-07 9.030E-08 6.290E-08 SW -1 .~040EZe6 ~4.100E-07 1. 930E-07 1.150E-07 8. 020E-08

                                       -              ~                     ~

WSW 7.370E-07 3.500E-07 1.740E-07 1.070E-07 7.630E-08 W 3.510E-07 2.020E-07 1.030E-07 6.330E-08 4.530E-08 WNW 7-~020E-07~4. i f0E;07 ~2. U70E-07-'1. 260E-07 8. 960E-08 NW 8.140E-07 4.460E-07 2.260E-07 1.410E-07 1.020E-07 NNW 8.150E-07 4.290E-07 2.230E-07 1.430E-07 1.060E-07 5.-10. 10.-20. 20.-30. 30.-40 40.-30.

      )                  N 5.820E-08 2.760E-08 1.640E-08 1.160E-08 8.770E-09

(/ NNE 5.160E-08 2.470E-08 1.4'70E-08 1.040E-08 7.910E-0V NE 4 190E-08 2.0SOE-08 1.260E-08 9 000E-09 6.890E-0V

                                         ~

ENE 4,400E-08 2.220E-08 1.350E-08 9.690E-09 7.430E-09 E ESE 3.300E-08 1.660E-08 1.010E-08 7 270E-09 5.580E-09 SE 3.320E-08 1.600E-08 9.580E-09 6.800E-09 5.190E-09 SSE 3.760E-08 1.670E-08 9.690E-09 6.720E-09 5.050E-09 S 4.000E-08 1.710E-08 9.680E-09 6 640E-09 4.950E-O'? SSW 2.970E-08 1.240E-08 6.900E-09 4 690E-09 3.460E-09 SW 3.590E-08 1.490E-08 8.320E -09 5.650E-09 4.170E-09 4 620E-08 1.940E-08 1.090E-08 7 450E-09 5.620E-09 WSW W 4.560E-08 1.990E-08 1.140E-08 7 810E-09 S.820E-09 WNW 2.700E-08 1.170E-08 6.640E-09 4.560E-09 3.390E-09 NW 5.260E-08 2.240E-08 1.260E-08 8.640E-09 6.400E-09 NNW 6 270E-08 2.830E-08 1.630E-08 1 330E-08 8 520E-09 6.850E-08 3.240E-08 1.930E-08 1.360E-08 1.030E-08 NOTES:

• CONCENTRATION PER CUBIC METER Ob bi ID

{U l q

                      ** MILES FROM WATERFORD 3 t DENOTES POWER OF TEN i                    l

{n b

     \

b) Amendment No. 2, (10/80) LOUISIANA Table POWER & LIGHT CO. Waterford Steam RELATIVE RAD 1010 DINE & PARTICULATE CONCENTRATIONS 5.2-3 Electric Station

(q i SITE ANNUAL DEF-OSITION DA TA, M-2* 2.-3. 3.-4. 4.-5.

                    .DIR        0. 0-1. "            1.-2.

N 2.280E-Ocit;;.050E-09 9.000E-10 3.990E-10 2.250E-10

                                      ~

NNE 2.1DUkCD8'E.740s~09 51.'060E-10'3.5 HOE-10 2.020E-10 NE 1.850E-08 2.430E-09 7.140E-10 3.170E-10 1.790E-10 ENE 1.760E-08 2.170E-09 6.320E-10 2.810E-10 1.600E-10

                                                             ~             ~

E ~~1. T4dE Z O8

                                              -~ 1.530E-09 5.340E-10 2.370E-10 1.350E-10 ESE 1.490E-08 1.930E-09 5.680E-10 2.520E-10 1.430E-10 SE      1.010E-08 2.550E-09 7.520E-10 3.320E-10 1.870E-10 SSE 2 i~170E-08 3 l210E;09' 9. 520E-10 '4.200E-10 2.360E-10
                                 -             ~~

S 1.320E-08 1.940E-09 5.780E-10 2.560E-10 1.430E-10 SSW 2.100E-08 3.060E-09 9.030E-10 2.980E-10 2.240E-10 ~ ~ SW - ~

                              - , -3 050E-08 # "6lTZ6F1T310E-09 5.'760E-10 3.230E-10 WSU 2.150E-Ou             o. 10E-09 8.940E-10 3.950E-10 2.220E-10 W   9,910E-09 1.400E-09 4.'160E-10 1.840E-10 1.040E-10 WNW 2.070E-08 3.050E-09 9 050E-10 4.000E-10 2.240E-10 NW     2.610E-08 3.6SOE-09 1.090E-09 4.820E-10 2.710E-10 NNW 3.090E-08 4.180E-09 1.230E-09 5.460E-10 3.080E-10
                                                                                                                                           ;
                                ! . . - 10 .       10.-20. 20.-30.        30.-40.        40.-50.

N N n . '-;70 E- 1 1 2.140E-11 8.930E-12 5.490E-12 4.100E-12 NNE 7.730E-11 1.950E-11 8.130E-12 4.950E-12 3.A50E-12 NE 6.840E-11 1.730E-11 7.230E-12 4.390E-12 3.210E-12 ENE 6.170E-11 1.570E-11 6.510E-12 3.880E-12 2.790E-12 E 5.170E-11 1.310E-11 5.480E-12 3.320E-12 2.420E-12 ESE 5.450E-11 1.370E-11 5.730E-12 3.470E-12 2.540E-12 SE 7.070E-11 1.770E-11 7.520E-12 4.670E-12 3.490E-12 SSE 8.840E-11 2.200E-11 9.410E-12 5.920E-12 4.500E-12 S 5.370E-11 1.330E-11 5.580E-12 3.500E-12 2.670E-12 SSW 8.420E-11 2.120E-11 9.170E-12 5.810E-12 4.430E-12 SW 1.220E-10 3.100E-11 1.360E-11 8.670E-12 6.650E-12 WSW 8.400E-11 2.120E-11 9.120E-12 5.790E-12 4 4SOE-12 W 3.900E-11 9.690E-12 4.090E-12 2.600E-12 2.020E-12 WNW NW DJ410E-11 2'.090E-11 8.890E-12 5.680E-12 4.430E-12

                              .1.020E-10 2.540E-11 1.070E-11 6.740E-12 5.170E-12 NNW 1.170E-10 2.940E-11 1.240E-11 7.690E-12 5.800E-12 NOTES:

• DEPOSITION PER SQUARE METER

                       " MILES FROM WATERFORD 3                          D   fr       p    gn i DENOTES FOWER OF TEN                        ,      g n)

(

    ~

Amendment No. 2, (10/80) LOUISIANA Table PO ER I HT CO. RELATIVE DEPOSITION FOR RADIOlODINE & PARTICULATES 5.2-4 Electric Station l 4

WSES 3 ER

  ,/~~

k_,) s 5.6 Other Ef fects 5.6.1 LAND USE AND CULTURAL EFFECTS Waterford 3 is not expected to have any adverse effect s on land uses, other than the preemption of the small amount of acreage occupied by Waterford 3 and it s associated facilities. As discussed in Section 2.1.3.5, land uses surrounding Waterford 3 presently consist mostly of heavy industrial plant s and agricult ure, neither of which are expected t o be adversely af fected. The residential uses and the school in Killona 4 should suf fer no adverse impact s from the addition of Waterford 3 to the existing land uses in the area. In addi t ion, no cult ural resources are expect ed to be af fected by the operation of Waterford 3 and its associated facilities. As discussed in Section 2.6, the cultural resources remaining from the Waterford Plantation 2 are located far from the plant and therefore, the remaining construction and subsequent operation of Waterford 3 will not effect any of the extant remains of the Waterford Plantation present on the site. In the event that disturbance of these areas does become necessary, LP&L will consult with the Louisiana State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) prior t o commencing any act ivity. No disrupting activities in the areas identified as containing these extant remains will t ake place until a mitigation plan, approved by the SHPO, has been effectuated. Therefore, 2 it is clear that Waterford 3 will not have an adverse ef te-; on cultural ('~'gf resources, s

s. /

The addition of Waterford 3 to the existing landscape of the area is not anticipated to result in adverse visual effect s, because it is being con-structed in an already heavily industrialized area, and is therefore in character with its surroundings. 5.6.2 NOISE EFFECTS OF PLANT OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE 5.6.2.1 Introduction The sound levels of major sources of noise that will have an impact on i Waterford 3 environs have been developed f{pg actual field measurement s of similar equipment , analytical calculations and data supplied by various equipment manufacturers. Equi pment such as the emergency diesel generator operates intermittently, and equipment such as the turbine generator operates continuously. Con-sequently, in this report , a distinction is being made between the noise impact of intermit tent and continuous noise sources. Maintenance activities usually consist of routine inspection and replace-ment of machinery parts such as pumps and motor components. These activi-ties produce a sound level which is normally lower than plant operation sound levels, and is temporary in duration. i 5.6-1 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

l l WSES 3 l ER Because at the time of this writing neither the State of Louisiana nor St Charles Parish have yet adopted noise standards that limit environmental l noise (in decibels), th ect ion is based on Environment al Prot ect ion Agency (EPA) guidelines 5.6.2.7 Acoustical Treatment of Plant Noise Sources The following equipment has been fit ted with acoust ical features to reduce noise impact: a) Emergency Diesel Generators The pr edomi nant sources of noise in the diesel engine are the air intake, exhaust and engine mechanical noise. The t wo emergency diesel generat ors will be located inside the Keactor Auxiliary Building, and both inlet and exhaust port s will be fit ted with silencers, b) Communicat ians and Public Address Systera The plact ecomunicat ions syst em is provided by a combination of a pushbut ton t ype Private Aut omat ic Branch Exchange (PABX) telephone system, a solid state loudspeaker paging system and a radio paging system. The radio system provides paging calls (tone / voice) to individuals carrying port able pocket-size receivers. Access to the paging transmitter and acknowledgement of calls are from any of the plant's telephones on a dial-up basis. Outdoor communications will be conducted through the public address and radio system. The loud-speakers will be used only as necessary, to minimize the environmen-tal noise impact. In addition, prior to operation of Waterford 3, t he orient ation and the power iiiput to the outdoor loudspeakers will be adjusted as much as possible to reduce the noise impact on sur-rounding communities. c) Atmospheric Steam Dump Valves The two atmospheric steam dump valves will be of the "Self Drag" type (velocity control element ) that at tenuates the noise of the escaping steam flow, d) Auxiliary Boiler The auxiliary boiler forced draft fan will be fitted with an inlet silencer to at tenuate fan inlet noise. 5.6.2.3 Plant Operation Sound Level Estimates - Methodology The major noise sources at Waterford 3 were divided into two groups: continuous sources and intermittent sources. a) Continuous Noise Sources Based on past experience and analytical analysis, seven major sound producing systems, considered the signi ficant sources of noise, were Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER i (

      \s      -

selected as being representative of Waterford 3 continuous opera-i tion, and are listed below: {

1) Two Main Transformers

? ! 2) Two Auxiliary Transformers i j 3) Turbine Buildings - Ground to Operating Floor

4) Turbine Generator 4

- 5) Two Dry Cooling Towers

6) Four Circulating Water Pump Motors j 7) Ventilation System.

These seven major systems were combined logarithmically and pro-

                            -jected around the station in 5 db(A) intervals, as shown in Figure 5.6-1, using " hemispherical spreading" and " molecular absorption".

The directivity properties of the station were taken into considera-t tion by calculating the sound propagation in four geographical directions, north, south, east and west, and by making the appro-priate adjustments to the various sound contours. Consequently, plant sound contours (solid lines) have a non-symmetric appearance. Because the Circulating Water System pump motors are located about ! 800 feet 'from the plant , it was necessary to select two acoustic centers for the plant operation model: one for the Circulating , Water System pump motors, and a second one for the rest of the plant

                             - centered on the station building. The contours shown in solid lines in Figure 5.6-1 were drawn around the plant acoustic center
!                            and represent pl ant noise levels, and the contours shown in broken j                             lines were drawn around the Circulating Water System pump motors and represent the noise levels of these motors.

i l The levee on the north bank of the Mississippi River act s. as a j barrier in the N, NNE and NE sectors (shown on Figure 5.6-2) for the

sound that emanates from the Circulating Water System pump motors.

This barrier effect has been estimated to be about 5 db(A), and the i sound contours were adjusted to reflect this attenuation, as shown  ! in Figure 5.6-1. b) Intermittent Noise Sources l Based on past experience and analytical analysis, six major sound i systems considered to be the significant sources of noise were

selected as being ' representative of Waterford 3 intermit tent opera-j tion, and are listed below

;
!                            1)             Two Atmospheric Steam Dump Valves
;                            2)             One Auxiliary Boiler Forced Draft Fan

. 5.6-3 Amendment No. 2,00/80) 1 _ - - . . . . _ . , . _ _ ___--...__ _ ~ .-- ..--, ---- -. ,, . - - - - - . . - , - - .

WSES 3 ER

3) Two Wet Mechanical Cooling Towers

4) Two Emergency Diesel Generators

5) Public Address System

6) One Auxiliary Diesel Generator.

The sound levels produced by the above noise sources were projected individually to the nearest noise sensitive land uses, using

        " hemispherical spreading" and " molecular absorption".

5.6.2.4 Py nt Operation and Maintenance Noise Impact Table 5.6-1 summarizes the noise produced by the continuous operation of Waterford 3 in the nearby noise sensitive areas, without the addition of the ambient noise, and compares these levels with EPA guidelines. As can be seen from this table, the communities of Killona and Montz will be im-pacted by an Ldn (Day-night Sound Level) of about 55 db(A), and an Leq24 (Cont inuous Sound Level) of 48 and 49 db(A), respect ively. These values are wi thin the limit s identi fied by the EPA as requisite to protect the public health and welfare with an adequate margin of safety. Killona School will be impacted by an Leq 4 f about 49 db(A), whereas EPA recommends a maximum Leg upper limi of 55 db(A). Killona Park and Montz Park will be impacted b4y an Leq 2 4 f about 45 and 47 db(A), respec-tively, which will allow relaxed convgation with 100% sentence inte11igi-bility at a di st ance of 0.8 - I met er . It should be noted, however, that at this time the EPA has not identi fied an appropriate level that will prevent activity interference and annoyance in parks. Table !.6-2 summarizes the noise produced by various plant intermittent noise sources in the nearby noise sensitive areas. These noise levels,  ! with the exception of the P/A system, are sufficiently below the residual l noise levels (shown in Table 2.7-2 and 2.7-3) and will not create a sig- l ni fi cant impact . However, as indicat ed in Sect ion 5.6.2.2, ef fort s will be l made to adjust the P/A system, in order to minimize the environmental noise impact . Maintenance activities at Waterford 3, such as replacement of machinery part s, will generate a limited amount of noise without any signi ficant impact on the nearby sensitive noise receivers. l O 5.6-4 Amendment No.2, (10/80) I

WSES 3 t ER 1 i h l REFERENCES

1. Craham, J. B. "How to Estimate Fan Noise", Sound and Vibration.

May, 1972.

2. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Information on Levels of i Environmental Noise Requisite to Protect Public Health and Welfare

) with an Adequate Margin of Safety". March, 1974. l 1 l 1 l I l l l 3 i j l 5.6-5 l l l Amdndment No.2, (10/80) l l t _ . - .

WSES 3 ER (,_,/ samples are shown in Table 6.1.1-7. Benthic data gathered with a No.80 sleve were verifiable for all three sampling years, as shown in Table 6.1.1-8. The great majority of the benthic data obtained with the larger meshed sieves (Nos. 30 and 10) was found to be verifiable for Years I and II of the Environmental Surveillance Program. Year III data, beginning in November 1975, were not verifiable, and consequently were not used in quantitative inter-pretations of the data. The number of verifiable data points is shown in Table 6.1.1-9, and the aquatic biological data, as a whole, are contained in Appendix 2-4. i The three years of sampling during the Environmental Surveillance Program provided a substantial data base from which to develop the

thorough description of the aquatic community in the Mississippi River, as discussed in Section 2.2.2 and to complete the assessment of the aquatic biological effects of the operation of Waterford 3, contained in Section 5.1.3. The continuation of the Preoperational Environmental Surveillance Program with three additional years of seasonal sampling and one additional year of monthly sampling, as described in Section 6.1.1.2.4, will significantly enlarge this data base. The total data from seven years of sampling will then be available, prior to the operation of Waterford 3, for refinement of the analyses contained in this Environmental Report, for determining 3 the sensitivity of the analyses to the deletion of unverifiable data,

          )         and for providing a firmly established baseline of aquatic information
    -/              upon shich to evaluate the biological data gathered following the start of operation of Waterford 3.

6.1.1.2.3 Impingement Study at Uaterford 1 and 2 In order to determine which species would be subject to impingement at Water-ford 3 and to develop a first approximation of numbers and biomass of organisms which might be impinged there, a screen wash study was conducted at Uaterford 1 and 2, which are operative. The study was done from February ! 1976 to January 1977. It involved semi-monthly monitoring at the intake screening structures of Waterford 1 and 2. A 24-hour period was sampled on each sampling date. The screens were ! rotated, washed and cleared at the outset of each period. Baskets were then placed in series within the sluiceway carrying impinged organisms back to the waterbody, as shown in Figure 6.1.1-4. Two 1/4" expanded metal baskets were i .placed closest to the screens; a 1/2" hardware cloth basket was placed behind them as a backup. Collections were made when one or more screens were in l operation during the 24-hour sampling period. 1 All organisms collected during each sampling period were identified to 4

j species level, except when the organism's physical condition precluded

• identification. Physical injuries were noted. All fish and crustaceans were individually weighed and measured, with the exception of some bay i anchovy and river shrimp samples. These were subsampled; i.e., measure-l (/'~')s ments were taken on 25 randomly selected individuals. Total weights were l

computed for all species. Weights were measured on an 0 Itaus Dial-0-Cram j balance, with a precision of + 0.1 gram. L 6.1.1-13 Amendment No. 1, (9/79)

WSES 3 ER Lengths of organisms were measured to the nacrest millimeter. Fish were mea-  ! O sured in standard length; shrimp were measured from the tip of the rostrum to the tip of the telson; blue crab were measured by the carapace width. During the sampling periods, physical and chemical data were collected from the Unit 1 West and the Unit 2 East intake pump screen wells at approximately six-hour intervals. Dissolved oxygen, water temperature and conductivity were measured in situ. Water samples were collected from the appropriate wells, and pil was measured within 30 minutes of sample collection. 6.1.1.2.4 Methodology of Sampling - Program Continuation (1977-1981) For the period 1977 through the first half of 1980, the seasonal sampling surveys for the Environmental Surveillance Program of the aquatic ecology of the Mississippi River utilized essentially the same sampling locations , techniques, and methodologies that are described above. However, the Seasonal Sampling Program was slightly modified in 1977 to comply more closely with the sampling program described in Supplement 6 to the Construction Permit Environmental Report for Wateriord 3, which has been accepted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These minor modifications are detailed in Appendix 6-2, included in this Environmental Report. In addition, prior to the initiation of the monthly sampling surveys for the year preceding the fuel load date (see Section 6.1.1.1.1), a re evaluation of the program sampling methods and materials was performed to investigate their utility in obtaining the desired baseline information on the river's aquatic ecology. This lavestigation has resulted in the revisions to various por-tions of the program. The purpose of thase cevisions is to improve the sampling program by obtaining more meaningful and representative data. Specifically, the revisions result in the following improvements:

     . Modifying sampling techniques and replications to reduce the large variability and/or redundancy in measurements from the previous program;
     . More effectively observe natural seasonal trends; 2
     . Adjust sampling frequencies to be commensurate with the probable level of impact expected; and
      . Incorporate improved sampling techniques which are more suitable for the physical conditions of the Mississippi River.

The revisions have been submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for review and comment. The revised program specification is presented in Appendix 6-3, included in this Environmental Report. O 6.1.1-14 Amendment No.2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER TABLE 6.1.1-4 PARAMETERS INCLUDED IN EFFLUENT i LIMITATIONS AND WATER QUALITY CRITERIA Chemical Effluent Limitations for Steam Electric Generating l Water Quality Criteria for the 2 ! 4 Sources to be met by all existing Sources at Completion of Mississippi River Near the Waterford Construction 3 Site ' i pH Chloride I Total Suspended Solids Sulfate j Oil and Grease Dissolved Oxygen , Total Copper pH Range ) Total Iron Bacteria Standard  !

,                   Free Available Chlorine                                  Temperature Total Dissolved Solids i

n l I i 4 5 l

          )

Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

  . . . . . . _ . - - , - . . .              .. . - ~ . _ - .             --           _ .  -         .-          .   , . - -     .             . . - - _ . - .             .

I

                                                                                                                                                                                                                ;

1 h

                                     \.

WSES 3 ER 1 TABLE 6.1.1-6 (Sheet 2 of 4)

_ PREOPERATIONAL MONITORING PROGRAM - AOUATIC ECOLOGY SAMPLING SCHEDULE ? 2" 1981 - 1982 1977 - 1978 1976 - 19eo Frequency Samp ling Frequency Sampline frecuency Sampling _ Cowmunity Gear Of Sampline Gear Of Samotine Gear l- Samoted Of Samotine g i FISH Once durine the 3rd week of' Trawle esme as Same as 1977 - 1978 Same se ~ Monthly Electroehocking j2 each of the following monthe. 1973 - 1974 1973-1974. . July. Scotember, January. April; five minute trawl = for all travle 1 Two 24 hour periode at each Gill net (all statione) j etation during each ensplina < period . Two houre at each station Electro =hockine i during each sampling period (all statione) j BENTHOS Once a month durine the Smith McIntyre l following monthe: July. Grab September, January and April 1 At least 4 =amples taken at Same se 1977 - 1978 Some ao Monthly Smith-McIntyre Grab 2 each esmoline station on 1977-1978 each samplina date  ; i l , r t I Once a month durint the 1/2 meter dia- Same as 1977-1978 and Same as Monthly Same as e ZOOP LANKTON 2 followina monther July, meter 86 (0.243 additional = ample taken 1974-1975 1977-1980 i September January and April em mesh) plankton at Station B with a l l A statione - S and B net (ease se meter #20 (7b mm mesh) . B etatione - S. M. B 1974 - 1975) Plankton Net i EL j  !  !

E i EF 1 P4 1

l ct i 8 4 t 3

O v P s WSES 3 ER TABLE 6.1.1-6 (Sheet 4 of 4) PREOPERATIONAL MONITORING PROGRAM - AQUATIC ECOLOGY SAMPLING SCHEDULE 1977 - 1978 1978 - 1980 1981 - 1982 2 Commt *.ity Frequency Semptine Frequency Sampline Frequency Sampling Sampled Of Sampline Cear Of Sampline Cear Of Samoline Gear I PHYTOP LANKTON Once a month during the follow- Same me 1973 - Same se 1977 - 1978 Productivity Monthly Diatometers int monthe: July. September 1974 in vivo and in 2

                                                                                                                                                                              ~~

January and April juet below vit ro the surface Productivity also run (in ~ vivo and g vitro ) ATTACHED ALCAE Some as 1973 - 1974 Same se 1973 - 1974 1 ICHTHYOPLANKTON Once a month during the One meter dia- Some en 1977 - 1978 Monthly Some a* 2 followine monthe: meter #0 (0.57 mm (Semi-Monthly 1977 - 1978 July. September January and menh) plankton from mid March April net to Auauet A etatione - S and B 3 5 etatione - S. M. B each tow at least 20 minutes duration R ' L ' E A

  .'ll W

i ) R 4-8

WSES 3 ER 8.1 BENEFITS v This section describes the social and economic benefits associated with the operation of Waterford 3. The benefits and costs of alternative sites, generating units, and waste management processes, are discussed in detail in the Construction Permit Environmental Report for Waterford 3. NRC Regulatory Guide 4.2 R2(1976) categorizes benefits as either primary (direct) or secondary (indirect). Primary benefits derived f rom Waterford 3 include the expected average annual generation of electricity, customer savings due to the commencement of commercial operation in 1983, reduction of LP&L's reliance on expensive fossil fuels and the enhancement of greater systet reliability. Secondary benefits of the' operation of Waterford 3 will include tax revenues generated, increased employment opportunities, increased regional income and increased knowledge of the environment as a result of research and monitoring. The productive life of Waterford 3 is 40 years. For the purposes of this chapter, all monetary values from 1975 to 1982 are expressed in current collars for the specific year while monetary values for 1983 to 2023, are discounted to 1983 dollars by a 2.39 percent discount rate. This discount rate is based on LP&L's 1979 capital structure and the rates of return for long te rm debt, common equity and preferred stock, resulting in a weighted cost of capital of 11.10 percent. The inflation tactor has been removed resulting in a real or constant dollar discount rate. The inflation factor is 8.56 percent derived from the implicit orice deflator for fixed invest-('s) t

  \ .-

s La ment (non-residential) from 1978 to 1979(1). 8.1.1 PRIMARY BENEFITS The major primary benefit of Waterford 3 is the production of electricity. Waterford 3 will generate a net of 1104 megawatts of electrical power (MWe, net), and assuming operation at an average 80 percent capacity factor will distribute 7.737 billion kilowatt-hours of electrical energy to LP&L customers annually. Table 8.1-1 shows the distribution of this energy by user class. The revenues produced from the sale of electricity during the initial year of operation will be about $379.5 million (in 1983 dollars). As a result of the fact that all of LP&L's generating capacity is either oil or gas fired and that oil and natural gas prices have rapidly escalated during the 1970's and are expected to continue escalating in the 1980's and beyond, it is readily apparent that a primary benefit is the 1983 com-mercial operation for Waterford 3 which will result in very substantial 2 savings for LP&L's customers. According to the customer savings analysis in Chapter 1, which is based upon a late 1982 commercial operation, a six (6) month delay in commercial operation of Waterford 3 would result in LP&L's customers incurring an additional cost of about $101.0 million over a ten (10) year period. These additional costs are induced by the required rate of return on Waterford 3, a loss of capacity equalization charges from other MSU companies and the higher cost of the alternative fossil f uels . For a one year delay of the commercial operation of Waterford 3, [,_ LP&L customers will be faced with about $92.6 million in additional costs x ,,, over a ten (10) year period while a two year delay woula result in LP&L 8.1-1 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER cus tome rs incurring about $262.7 million in additional costs over a ten (10) year period. The commercial operation of Waterf ord 3, in 1983, will reduce LP&L's re-liance on expensive fossil fuels. The availability of cheap natural gas will be diminishing throughout the 1980's due to expiration of long-term contracts and by prohibition of the use of natural gas as a primary energy source in power plants created by the Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978. The available substitutes to LP&L will be either nuclear power or expensive No. 6 oil. In 1983, f uel costs to LP&L for No. 6 oil are expected to be 68.80 mills per kilowatt-hour (mills /kWh), while nuclear fuel costs will be 8.91

                                                ~

mills /kWh. By 1989, No. 6 oil is forcasted to cost 130.59 mills /kWh in comparison to 12.58 mills /kWh for nuclear fuel. Therefore, the commercial operation of Waterford 3, in 1983, will greatly reduce the reliance of LP6L on natural gas and oil and decrease fuel cost. Another primary benefit will be the reserve margin added to the MSU system by Waterford 3 which will enhance system reliability, and in turn reduce outage costs to consumers. Aggrdingtoarecent study done by the Elec-

                                  , four case studies showed that reserve tric Power Research Institute margins in the range of 15 to 40 percent minimized customer costs.                  2 8.1.2       SECONDARY BENEFITS Throughout the construction and operational phases of Waterford 3, revenues will be generated that will benefit a variety of local, state and Federal revenue systems. For the purpose of this chapter, the local economy con-sists of the political jurisdiction of St Charles Parish. The regional area is ref erenced to the area within which construction and operation workers could be expected to reside in. The rcgional area includes the following parishes: Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Jefferson, laFourche, Livingston, Orleans, Plaquimines, St Charles, St James, St John the Baptist, St Tanany, Tangipahoa and Terrebonne.

The revenue systems that will be ef fected include individual state and Federal income taxes (including social security), corporate state and Federal income taxes, workmen's and unemployment compensation, sales and i use taxes, corporation f ranchise tax and property tax. The local revenues l (e.g. , property tax) generated by Waterford 3 will be used to support a I variety of public services in St Charles Parish such as road construction and maintenance, education, police, and fire protection services. The state revenues (e.g., sales and use taxes) that will be derived from the l operation or Waterford 3, will be used for activities such as education, community development, housing programs and the construction and mainten- i ance of highways, etc. For the purposes of this analysis, the discussion on the construction I i phase includes all benefits accrued as a result of Waterford 3 during the period 1975 to 1982, and the operational phase includes benefits accrued f rom 1983 to 2023. Furthermore, it should be noted that during the later years of construction, a portion of the work force will be operational 8.1-2 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER f'~~~N workers in training. Therefore, the last years of the construction phase () will include both construction and operational workers, and the income effects generated during this period will include workers from both groups. The construction and operational phases of Waterford 3 will generate about

           $2.297 billion in revenue for local, state and Federal governments. This l

estimate is considered to be conservatively low since it does not include property taxes due to the exemption allowed for industrial facilities, (which will continue until 1993), and the difficulty of forecasting a property tax rate and " fair market value" for Waterford 3 after 1993. The construction of Waterford 3 (1975 to 1982) will have generated about

           $111.4 million in additional revenue for various gavernmental authorities, and during its operational phase (1983 to 2023) the facility will generate almost $2.186 billion (discounted to 1983 dollars) in new revenues for local, state and Federal governments.

The construction and operation of Waterford 3 will also affect regional empl oyme nt. To quantify this impact, regional employment multipliers are used. The employment multipliers determine the level of non-basic (indirect and 2 income-induced) job opportunities that would be generated by every new basic (construction and operational) job created by Waterford 3. The struction/ employment multiplier operational phase that was employment utilized multiplier for thi 33.alysisisa of 0.65 The multiplier

  ,~. s i assumes that the " leakage of income" from the region during the construc-

[n,,/ tion will be very small . During 1979, the construction of Waterford 3 created a total of 3,120 con-struction jobs and 131 operational jobs which in turn generated an esti-mated 2,113 secondary job opportunities in the region's non-basic employ-ment sectors. The total employment effect of Waterford 3 in 1979 was the generation of an estimated 5,364 job opportunities. The operation of Waterford 3 will require a staff of about 204 operational workers. These operational workers will create an estimated additional 133 non-basic or secondary jobs for the region, resulting in a total employment impact of an estimated 337 job opportunities. The construction and operation of Waterford 3 will generate about $509.7 million in construction, operational and secondary worker income for the re gion. Of this total, about $352.4 million will have been generated dur-ing the construction phase and about $157.3 million (discounted to 1983 dollars) will be generated during the operational phase of Waterford 3. LP&L will sponser several environmental research programs related to the operation of Waterford 3. These programs include aquatic biology and water quality surveillance, radiological sampling, meteorological monitoring, a hydrothermal survey, and terrestrial ecology surveys. These programs are described in detail in Chapter 6. The total estimated expenditure for these programs is approximately $2.5 million for the period 1981 to 1984.

      '    The radiological sampling and meteorological monitoring will be continued
 \v     /

8.1-3 Amendment Ne.2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER throughout the remainder of the operation of Waterford 3 at an estimated O annual cost of $40,000. These programs will contribute to an increase in knowledge of the environment and the plant's interaction with it in the vicinity of Waterford 3. In order to enhance the appearance of Waterford 3, LP&L is restoring the land disturbed during construction and landscaping appropriate portions of the property. An estimated 150 acres have been disturbed during construc-tion, and of this, approximately 50 acres are occupied by the Waterford 3 fac il itie s. The environmental enhancement gained through restoration and landscaping of the remaining disturbed 100 acres is anticipated to have an initial cost to LP&L of approximately $250,000. Additional environmental enhancement will be gained through the use of electricity by LP&L customers for pollution avoidance and abatement. An increasing number of commercial and industrial customers are changing to relatively clean electrical processes to avoid the releases of polluting by products which result from the use of other fuels. Customers will also rely on electricity to abate pollution through the use of scrubbers, re-cycling systems, precipitators and similar control systems. . OlI I 1 l l O 8.1-4 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER REFERENCES

1. Council of Economic Advisors, Economic Report of the President, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,1980.

2. Decision Focus, Incorporated, Costs and Benefits of Over/Under Capacity in Electric Power System Planning prepared for the Electric Power Research Institute RP-1107, Palo Alto, California,1978. 2

3. Derived by the Council of Economic Advisors and have been utilized by the State of Louisiana Department of Commerce in a study en-titled Louisiana Means Business (Charles M Smith).

i I l i

Nw/

l ( 8.1-5 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

j WSES 3 ER TABLE 8.1-1 ESTIMATED BENEFITS OF WATERFORD 3 Primary Benefits Expected Average Annual Generation 9 80% Capacity 7.737 x 109kWh Capacity of Waterford 3 1,104,000 kW Proportional Distribution of Electrical Energy (1983) , Industrial 4.755 x 10 kWh Residential 1.917 x 10 kWh Commercial 0.876 x 10 kWh Governmental 0.149 x 10 kWh Other 0.040 x 10 kWh Annual Revenues from Delivered Benefits Electrical Energy (Given for First $379,460,503 ) Year of Operation - in 1983 dollars)* Secondary Benefits ( Taxes (local, state, Federal) Construction $ 111,400,000 Ope ra t ion ** $2,186,144,783 2 l Employment at Waterford 3 Construction (Basic and Non-Baaic) 5,364 job opportunities at peak (1979)

Operation (Basic and Non-Basic) 337 job opportunities t Income Construc t ion $352,407,403 Ope ration ** $157,271,539

• Based upon anticipated overall revenue per kilowatt hour in 1983. r

        ** Discounted to 1983 dollars.

pg Sources: Louisiana Power and Light Company and ebasco Services Incorporated. ( ) l Amendment No. 2, (10/80) l

WSES 3 ER O\ 8.2 COSTS - The costs associated with the construction and operation of Waterford 3 include both internal and external costs. The internal costs are those directly related to construction and operation, and external costs refer to the potential adverse ef fects on the natural and social environments. 1 8.2.1 INTERNAL COSTS j l The total estimated cost to LP6L for the construction of Waterford 3 is approximately $1.491 billion (in 1983 dollars). The construction costs l2 are itemized in Table 8.2-1 in accordance with the format requested by AIS Regulatory Guide 4.2, Revision 2. Construction of the transmission facili-ties directly associated with Waterford 3 as well as land costs will add about $2.3 million to the construction costs (in 1978 dollars). The estimated costs of electrical energy generation by specific components for Waterford 3 during the initial year of operation are shown in Table 8.2-2 and are expressed in 1983 dollars. During the initial year of opera-tion, the total cost of electrical generation will be about $362.2 million or 4b.81 mills per kilot ttt-hour (mills /kWh). This total cost for electri-cal generation consists ->f fixed charges, nuclear fuel cycle costs and 2 operation and maintenance costs. Fixed charges are composed of the fol-lowing items: cost of capital; depreciation; interim replacements; pro-perty insurance; income taxes, and state and local taxes. The fixed charges for Waterf ord 3, during its initial year of operation will be about $252.1 million (32.58 mills /kWh). The nuclear fuel cycle costs are the cost of tuel material preparation and utilization. The nuclear fuel cycle costs for Watertord 3 during the initial year will be about $68.9 million (8.91 mills /kWh). The operation and maintenance costs include staff costs, operational costs, maintenance costs, insurance and fee costs and ad-ministration and general costs. The operation and maintenance costs for Waterford 3 durind its initial year of operation will be about $41.2 million (5.32 mills /kWh). Table 8.2-2 presents a detailed breakdown for each category discussed above. to An estimate of the costs to decommission Waterford 3 is very dif f g it make at this time. A recent study by the Atomic Industrial Forum pro-

!      vides a basis for estimating the range of decommissioning costs for the three primary methods which have been used to date: mothballing, in place entombment, and complete removal / dismantling. The decommissioning costs for a pressurized water reactor are estimated to range from $2.3 million 4

(1975 dollars) for mothballing to $31.3 million (1975 dollars) for mothballing followed by complete removal and dismantling. These and other methods of decommissioning, as well as their relative costs, are discussed in more detail in Section 5.8. 8.2.2 EXTERNAL COSTS External costs are the short-term and long-term ef fects of the operation of ['"\ ( ) Waterford 3 on the natural and social environment. cussed in detail in Chapter 5. These effects are dis-8.2-1 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

                              --              . - -   - - . - . .   ~. _         ._ - -

WSES 3 ER No short-term adverse ef fects on the local community are anticipated from the influx of approximately 204 operations personnel. As described in l2 Section 2.1, Waterford 3 is within commuting distance of New Orleans, the region's major economic and population center, and within 10 miles of nine towns with populations ranging from 1,000 to 7,000 people. Even if all of the operations personnel are assumed to relocate to the Waterford 3 area from outside the region, these communities will be capaL!e of assimi-lating 204 households without significant effects on their services or budgets. This fact was confirmed by an investigatio" of existing and projected (1979 to 1982) public service levels in b;th St. Charles and St. John the Baptist Parishes and the induced demand for these services which could be expected from immigrant workers and their dependents. Immigrant workers are detined as those workers who have moved within ten miles of the site as a result of their involvement in the Waterford 3 project. The investigation included the following public service functions: the general control (par-ish administration, planning, legal and judicial functions), financial ad-ministration, sheriff, fire, water supply, sewer, sanitation, library and 2 hospitals. The investigation incorporated the results of a survey of both the construction and operational (in-training) work forces (2). The in-vestigation indicated that the induced service demand of the immigrant population would be absorbed by those public service functions which pre-sently have excess capacities while, for those functions presently exhibit-ing deficits, the increase in the deficit from immigrant population would be marginal in comparison to the overall deficit. Thus, the estimated im-pact of the immigrant population upon the public services in these parishes is quite small. These impacts should be considered within the overall growth which is taking place within ten miles of Waterford 3. The area is the scene of a number of large construction projects in recent years and is growing at a projected annual population rate of 1.7 percent. Demands are, therefore, much more likely to evolve from general growth in the area rather than as a result of Waterford 3. !!ost of the long-term external costs resulting from the operation of Waterford 3 cannot be realistically evaluated in quantitative terms. These costs have been analyzed and are described in Section 2.6 and Chapter

5. These costs are not considered to be significant when compared to the benefits provided by Waterford 3.

It is lossible, however, to quantify two of the long-term external costs: the removal of land from agricultural productivity, and the value of commercial fish species killed by impingement on the intake screens of the Circulating Water System. Approximately 150 acres of LP6L property are being utilized for the Waterford 3 facility or are being reseeded and landscaped following construction. This land has been typically used to grow sugar cane which, at the start o out Louisianalg)the construction As described in period, was Section a declining 2.1.3, industry the acreage through-of sugar cane declined by 75 percent in St Charles Parish alone between 1969 and 1974. The total land used for the Waterford 3 facility represents only about 1.5 percent in 1977 total cropland and pasture within five miles of 8.2-2 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

r WSES 3 ER s,, the site, and about 2 percent of the total cropland within St Charles Parish. The loss of this small amount of land from agricultural produc-tivity is not considered to be a significant cost to this industry. In Section 5.1.3, it is estimated that a likely average and maximum annual weight of 16,100 and 28,250 lbs of commercial or otherwise representative fish and shellfish species will be killed annually by impingement on the intake screens of the Circulating Water System. The cost of this loss can be estimated using the dollar value assigned to an individual fish or shellfish of a designated size and specieg4) These values have been determined by the American Fisheries Society . from calculations of 1 the costs of raising individual fish or shellfish to the designated size in a hatchery. Using these values, it is estimated that the annual loss of fish and shellfish due to impingement will range from approximately

         $10,704 to $18,943 for the likely average and maximum impingement rates, 1

respectively (see Section 5.1). This cost is not considered to be signi-ficant in comparison to the 1974 commercial fish and shellfish landings in Louigggna of approximately 2 billion pounds, valued at more than $86

million

       \

l ~_ I Amendment No. 2, (10/80) 8.2-3

WSES 3 ER REFERENCES

1. Manion, W J , and T S LaGuardi a. "An Engineering Evaluat ion of Nuclear Power Reactor Decommissioning Alternatives, Summary Re po r t . " Atomic Indust rial Forum. November, 1976.

2. Ebasco Services Inc. , Survey of Const ruct ion and Operational 2 Workforce at Wat erford 3,1979.

3. St allings, E F, et al. "An Analysis of Agriculture, Forestry l2 and Mariculture Tii tIIe Coastal Zone of Louisiana." University of Southwestern Louisiana. Undated.

4. The Pollut ion Commi t tee, American Fisheries Society, Southern Division. " Monetary Values of Fish." 1975. (See also: Hayes l2 T B, "AFS Monetary Values of Fish Legally Adopted," Fisheries, Volume 2, Number 4.)

5. Renner, J R. "The Coastal Zone: An Overview of Economic, Recreational, and Demographic Patterns." State Louisiana, State Planning Of fice, Baton Rouge, Louisiana. November, 1976.

O O Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER f TABLE 8.2-1 COST INFORMATION FOR WATERFORD 3

1. Intersst during 7.5%/ year 5. Escalation Rates Construction Site Labor 8.5%/yr

2. Length of Con- 40 hours /wk struction Workweek Materials 7.8%/yr

3. estimated Site Labor 15 man-hrs /kWe Composi t e 8.2%

Requirement (Direct Escalation

             & Indi rect )                                          Rate 4   Average Site              $8.33/hr Labor Pay Rate (including Fringe Benefit s) ef fective at Month and Year                                                                        2 of NSSS Order Const ruct ion Cost s

/' N \ l (in millions)

'V                                                      Const ruct ion Facil-      $175.0

a. St ruct ures and $190.0 h.

Site Facilities i t ies, Equi pment ,

b. React or (boiler) 185.0 and Services Plant Equipment i. Engineering and 207.0 l

c. Turbine Plant 75.0 Const ruct ion Man-Equi pment not agement Services including Heat j. Other Cost s 185 Rejection Systems k. Allowance for Funds 346.0

d. Elect ric Plant 70.0 used during Construe-Equi pment tion at 6.75% af ter 1977

e. Miscellaneous 4.0 Equi pment Total Cost

f. Spare Parts 16.0 l Allowance Total Station $1,491 l

g. Contigency 38.0 Cost, at st art Allowance of Commercial Operation wi thout Land Costs Total 1978 value $0.898 of land and land rights:

7 s. All cona*.uction costs are expressed in 1983 dollars, initial j year of operation, except when noted. Sources: Louisiana Power and Light and Ebasco Services, Incorporated. Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER i f TABLE 8.2-2

                                                                                                       ;

4 ESTIMATED COST OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY GENERATION Mills / Kilowatt-Hour

                                +

1. Fixed Charges 32.58

2. Fuel Cycle Costs (Total) i Waterford 3 (nuclear) 8.91

3. Operation and Mrintenance Costs 5.32

4. Total 4 6.81 2 f t

i The cost of electrical generation is for the first (initial) year of i operation and is expressed in 1983 dollars. The operational char-  ! acteristics of Waterford 3 are 1104 MW(e) at a 80% capacity factor. I

                 *The fixed charge rate for Waterford 3 is a levelized rate of 16.91%.

Sources: Louisiane. Power and Light and Ebasco Services Incorporated, j l t I l I a 4 Amendment No. 2,(10/80)

WSES 3 ER 11.1 SENEFITS The principal benefit of Waterford 3 is the distributed generation o5 approx-imately 7.737 billion kilowatt- hours of electricity. This generation will result in a substantial cost savings to LP&L customers, along with a de-creased reliance on more expensive fossil fuels and an enhancement of system reliability. As described in Section 8.1.2, Waterford 3 will generate a total of $2.297 billion in new revenues for local, state and Federal governments during the coratruction and operation phases. It is estimated that Waterford 3 will have created, during the peak construction year of 1979, a total of 5,364 job opportunities within the redion. During its operational phase, Waterford 3 will create an estimated 337 ?ob opportunities in the region. During the construction and operational phases of Waterford 3, about $509.7 million 2 of new income will be generated in the region's basic and non-basic en-ployment sectors. LP&L is maintaining environmental surveillance programs monitoring air and water quality, and terrestrial and aquatic ecology. These programs are increasing the knowledge and understanding of nuclear generating stations and their ef fects on the environment by providing information from which future advances in design and technology can evolve. 11.2 COST N The cost to LP&L to construct Waterford 3 will be about $1.491 billion (in 1983 dollars). The operating cost of electrical generation during the 2 initial year of operation (in 1983 dollars) will be $362.2 million or 46.81 mills per kilowatt hour. There is anticipated to be a small quantifiable external cost resulting from mortality of commercial fish species impinged on the Circulating Water System intake screens. This cost is estimated to range from ap-proximately $10,000 to $19,000 annually. 1 In addition, there are other external costs due to the environmental impacts discussed in Section 2.6, and Chapters 4 and 5. These costs, while difficult to quantify, have been investigated, and are believed not to be significant when compared to the benefits derived from the project. Decommissioning costs will probably fall within the range of $2.3 million for mothballing to $31.3 million for mothballing followed by complete re-moval/ dismantling with security (See Table 5.8-1), depending upon the method selected. This cost will be borne by LP&L. l

11.3 CONCLUSION

S It is the judgment of Louisiana Power & Light Company that, given the nature of expensive and ucre11able fossil fuel supplies, as well as the likely resultant environmental effects, Waterford 3 represents the optimum economic and environmental alternative available for providing electricity. N 11.1-1 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

k 'l i VSES 3 ER TABLE 12.1-1 ' 1 ' (Sheet 1 of 2) LICENSES, PERMITS AND OTHER APPROVALS REQUIRED FOR THE OPERATION OF WATERFORD 3 i WATER AUTHORIZATION REQUIRED STATUTE OR AUTHORITY STATUS AGENCY United States Armw Corp = of Permit to Construct on a naviemble River and Harbor = Act Se:t. 10 Permit tranted 7/72. Revised 4/77. Encinaere watervsv 3 3 CFR 209 Peimit to Diecharee in waterway P .L. 92-500 Sact . 404 Pe rmit tranted 4/77. dredee and fill riaterial t Envi ronme n t a l Protection Acen v Approval of State Cartific ation of P.L. 92-503 Sect. 401 Pe mit eranted 9/73. Compliance with Effluent Limitation = l b National Pollutant Di =ch a rge P.L. 92-500 Sert. 402 Fermit eranted 7/80. 2 Elimination System Pe rmit Aoproval of le== atringent effluent P.L. 92-500 Sect . 316(a) Low Potential Impact Type III limitation f or thermal pollution Demonstration submitted 4//9. Aeproval of intake arructure . . ' 92-500 Sect. 316(b) Dmnon=tration submitted 4/79. M technoloey l Notification of Hazardou* Wate 2

Re=ource Conservation and R*covery Act P.L. 94-580 Activity Form aubmitted d/60

M Permit to Diacharee to ahare to Loo .'ana Revi=ed Statute. Act. Pe rmi t trented 9/73.

Louisiana St ream Cont rol Commi uton 49/5 to. 512 Section 1435, State Water Quality Standards recul.tione

             ^

Q P.L. 92-500 Sect. 401 Permit tranted 9/73, State Certification that diacharre complie= with Section= 301 302 306 and 307 of P.L. 92-500 1 Pe rmit to e=tablish private aid to 14 U.S.C. 81; 33 CFR 66 Aeplication mooroved 10/77 g United State = Coast Cuard (annual). i naviestion g

          %                                                                                    AIR Federal Air Navitation Approval            80 Statute 932; 14 CFR 77        Renue=t for approval to be aubmitted

] g Federal Aviation Administration 11/7d. l = Approval for con =truction/ Louisiana Air Control Law Act a Permit for plant =catk. auxiliary o Louisiana Air Control Commi== ion boiler, diesel teneratora, and fire operation of emi== ion source 1964 No. 259 Section 1, ReRula- .l ) h

          --                                                                                        tiene Sect. 6.0                  zumo= tranted 9/79.

Permit for oneite oit =tormee tanka 2 eranted 1/d0.

l l WSES 3 ER 1 gueation No. 301.44 Please re.fer to OLER, page 3.4-2, Table 5.1.3, and s'able 5.1. 5. If the average low river flow at Waterford site is about 200,000 cfs, then according to Table 5.1-3, the average low water level (ALWL) should be about 2.3 f t MSL instead of 0.9 f t MSL as stated on page 3.4-2. Please clarify this.

Response

The ALWL given in page 3.4-2 and Table 5.1-5 should both be 0.8 feet MSL. The river flow rate of about 200,000 cfs was defined as a typi-cal low flow in the OLER (eg, Section 5.1.2.3) and it does correspond to a river stage of 2.2 feet (2.3 feet for 205,000 cfs - Table 5.1-3). The ALWL of 0.8 feet MSL was utilized for calculating the design pump flow and this ALWL corresponds to a flow of about 140,000 cfs. According to Section 2.4.2.2.1 of the OLER, this flow approximates the 95 percent exceedance flow g f-'s (that flow which will be equaled or exceeded 95 percent of the , I time). 7 1 301.44-1 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

                                                                  .         . _ _ - - . _ .    ,_     --.- _ _ ., _ ~._ . . _ . _ . - - - _ _ .

WSES 3 PAE 2 f

;       V Question No.

301.45 Please refer to OLER, page 3.4-3. If the ALWL is indeed 2.3 l' ft MSI., then for four pump operation, the discharge velocity into the river should be about 6.1 fps instead of 7 fps as stated on page 3.4-3. Please clarify this. 1 j Response As discussed in the response to Question No. 301.44,the ALWL is not 2.3 feet tiSL but 0.8 feet tiSL as presented in Table 5.1-5. i Under the four pump opersting condition, the discharge velocity is about 7.7 fps (=2235/(50 x 5.8)). The statement "about 7 ft i per second" on page 3.4-3, then, should be changed to "about j 8 ft per second". The OLER has been revised to reflect this change. i^ In reality, however, ALWL is more likely to occur in fall season than in summer season durir.;; which four pump operation is expected. In fall season, the river temperature is lower g and the pumping rate is expect J to be 1831 cfs (Table 5.1-2)

                \                            on the average. The corresponding discharge velocity is about 6.3 fps (= 1831/(50 x 5.8)).

i 301.45-1 Amendment No. 2, (10/80) I

                                                                                           , , , , + _ . _ - . ,             .,.,c- ,,-,. , - - - ,            ---m                         - + - - --m y w---w+m- g-wg      ,-::.,           p         -

WSES 3

,                                                      ER

( N

          \
    -'      Question No.

301.46 Please refer to OLER, Table 5.1.2. For average spring flow condition, the discharge velocity at Waterford 3 should be 2.5 7 fps instead of 1.9 fps as shown in Table 5.1.2. Please check this.

Response

                                                                                                         ;

The discharge canal illustrated in Figure 3.4-4 is formed by two portions of sheet p'les having the came bottom elevation (-5.0 feet MSL) but are built to different top elevations. At the inshore end, the discharge canal has a constant width of 81 feet and a constant top elevation of 15 feet MSL. From the offshore end of this canal, the canal width of another sheet pile section having a lower top elevation of 10 feet MSL, con-tracts symetrically to a width of 50 feet at the river end. 4 . At a river stage of 11.8 feet, the of fshore portion of sheet piles with a top elevation of 10 feet MSL is completely sub-merged. The apparent port dimensions , then, become 81 feet by 16.8 (= 11.8 + 5) feet. However, a large portion of flow is ttill guided through a submerged converging canal. A firnt order disenarge velocity computation of this complicated flow s is presented in the following paraaraph. The discharge velocity can be estimated to be in the range of 2.5 fps (=2114/(50 x 16.8)) and 1.6 fps (=2114/(81 x 16.8)).

;                        Since the average river velocity is 3.4 fps at the Waterford 3 j                        discharge for the average spring flow condition, the Waterford 3 discharge velocity of 2.5 fps is still less than the river velocity.       Accordingly, the discharge is considered as a far-field type whose impact is conservatively assumed independent
<                        of the discharge velocity. On Table 5.1-2, the discharge veloc-ity of 1.9 f ps was obtained by assuming an average width of 65 feet.

l

         \

G i 301.46-1 Amendment No. 2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER

 /%

I \ ( ,/ Question No. 301.47 The project vicinity is in an archaeologically sensitive area for historic site location, according to a letier we received recently from Dr. E. " . Carrier, the Louisiana State Historic Preservation Officer. His maps indicate the project to be in the location of the old Waterford Plantation. While portions of this site may have been destroyed by previous levee con-struction and industrial activity, significant cultural remains may still be present. The previous survey was restricted to the proposed power line routes and intake and discharge struc-tures, and no evidence of this site was discovered. In order to determine the impact on the Waterford Plantation and on any unknown cultural resources, we request that you conduct a cultural resources survey of the remTining portions of the property. This should include an intensive archaeologi-cal survey with systematic sub-surf ace testing, and an archi-tectural survey of all standing structures. We request that all buildings be documented with clear photographs in your response to this request for additional information. This survey should be coordinated with the State Historic Preser-vation Officer to insure that he finds the survey adequate. His address is: k_,/) I Dr. E. Bernard Carrier s Division of Archaeology and Historic Preservation Department of Culture, Recreation & Tourism P. O. Box 44247, Capitol Station Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70804 (504) 342-6682

Response

On February 7, 1980 representatives of Louisiana Power & Light Company met with representatives of the Louisiana State His-toric Preservation Office (SHPO) at the Waterford Site. As a result of this meeting, the SHPO revised his recommendations as to the type and extent of the cultural resources survey needed at Waterford (Figure 301.47-1). The SHPO subsequently recommended that a detailed literature search supplemented by archaeological testing in areas which might contain undis-turbed cultural deposits be performed. The report of the literature search and archaeological testing is included here as Appendix 2-6. Archival research indicated that the initial settlement of the land comprising the Waterford Plantation occurred around 1721. The history of ownership, and information about the owners ar.d the operation of the Waterford Plantation through the nineteenth and early twentieth century s'"x are presented in Table 301.47-1. Revised section 2.6-1 presents (\- '

      )               a description of the archaeological remains associated with the Waterford Plantation and their current status.

301.47-1 Amendment No.2, (10/80)

WSES 3 ER Should any ground disturbance of these areas become necessary in the future, LP&L will consult with the SHPO prior to commencing any activity. No disrupting activities within these designated areas vill take place until a mitigation plan has been approved by the SHPO. These protective measures insure that the operation of Waterford 3 will have no effect upon the cultural resources present on the property. O l O 301.47-2 Amendment No.2,(10/80) r 5

         . . _ . _ _ .~ _ . m ._ . _ _ . _ . _ . .              _._____._._.m______..                      _. _ . . _ _                     -.-._._m_ _ _ _ . _ _      _  _ _ ___. _. _ _ _ - . . -

N

     \

WSES 3

!                                                                                           ER

. TABIS. 301.47-1 ,

SUGAR PRODUCTION AT THE WATERFORD PLANTATION (1828-1917)

(Sheet 1 of 3) Sugar Suea r Surar ' House House Production Plantation owner / operator Plantation Apparatus Con e t ruc tion (counde) Year Estate - Mrs. D. A. Milliken Kittona B.Sh & SI 1916-17 Waterford DEV&C W.I. & Si 2.319.576 1916-17 Estate - Mrs. D. A. Milliken Kittona B.Sh. & 51 1915-16 Waterford DEV6C W.I. & Si 1.627.312 1915-16 Mrs. D. A. Milliken Killona B.Sh. & SI 1911-12 Wa te rf ord STV6C B.Sh. & Si 1.750.000 1911-12 M rs . D. A. Milliken Killona B.Sh. & SI 1907-08 [ Waterford ***" C

                                                                                                    .                  B.Sh. & S1          3.200.000              1907-08 M rs . D. A. Milliken                                  Killona                                                B.Sh. & Si                                 1906-07 Waterford                        STV6C                 B.Sh. & Si         2.200.000               1906-07 Mrs. D. A. Milliken                                    Killona                                                B.Sh. & Si                                 1905-06          2 1

Waterford STV6C 8.Sh. & S1 1.609.970 1905-06 Mrs. D. A. Milliken Killona B.Sh. & SI 1904-05 , Waterford STV6C B.Sh. & S1 2.760.000 1904-05 Mrs. D. A. Milliken Killona STV&C B.Sh. & S1 1902-03 1 Waterford STOP 5.Sh. & SI 1.621.056 1902-03 Mrs. D.A. Milliken Killona STV6C B.Sh. & St 1900-01 Waterford STOP B.Sh. & S1 2.d40.000 1900-01  ! I Estate - Richard Milliken Killona STV6C B.Sh. & SI 1898-99 E. Wateric-4 STOP 5.Sh. & S1 2.200.000 1898-99 2 l S Estate - Richard Milliken Killona STV6C B.Sh. & St 1897-98 g Waterford STOP B.Sh. & S1 2.170.000 1897-98 I ha Richard Milliken Killona STV6C B.Sh. & SI 1894-95 {; Waterford STOP B.Sh. & Si 2.343.172 1894-95 O EI Richard Milliken Killona STV&C B.Sh. & St 1893-94 1 d3 Waterford STOP B.Sh. & S1 2.172.854 1893-94 Richard Milliken Killona STV&C B.Sh. & Si 1892-93 Waterford STOP B.Sh. & S1 ' t .900.000 1892-93 l Richard Milliken Waterford STOP B.Sh. & S1 836.560 1891-92 f Richard Milliken Waterford STOP B.Sh. & SI 1.200.000 1890-91 i

                                                            ,_y               , _ _

   . ._ . _ _ . - - . _ . _ . _ . _ _ . . . . . _                          . . . ~ - . . _ - _ _ . . . .                         __._-._._..__..___.._.___,.._.___._.m.                                               . . . _ .   .._._,_._m        _ _ . . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

l. .

g i i i WSES ., E '. , (. TABLE 30'.47-1 (Cont *d) SUGAR PRODUCTION A* fHE WATERFORD PLANTATION (1828-1917) (Sheet 2 of 3) i Suta r Sutar Sugar i I House House Production ' l Plantation owner /cocrator Plantation Accaratue construction (oounde) Year 1 ! Richard Milliken Waterford STV6C B. & Sh. 805* 1888-89 i Richard Milliken Waterford STV6C B. & Sh. 929 1887-88 , l Richard Milliken Waterford STV6C B. & Sh. 380 1886-87 I I Richard Milliken Waterford STV&C .B. & Sh. 598 1885-86 Richard Mitliken Waterford STV&C B. & Sh. 402 1884-85 Richard Milliken Waterford STV6C B. & Sh. 446 1883-84 i Richard Milliken Wateric.rd STV6C B. & Sh. 890 1882-83 l i d' Richard Milliken Waterford SKOP B. & Sh. 448 1881-82 Waterford B. & Sh. 620 1880-81 2 i Richard Milliken STOP Richard Milliken Waterford SKOP B. & Sh. 705 1879-80 i ! Milliken & Whitehead Waterford SKOF B. & Sh. 746 1878-79 - I j W. B. Whitehead Waterford SKOP B. & Sh. 554 1877-78  ; W. B. Whitehead Waterford SKOP B. & Sh. 678 1876-77 W. B. Whitehead Waterford SKOP B. & Sh. 590 1875-76  ; { W. B. Whitehead SKOP B. & Sh. 390 1873-74 W. B. Whitehead SKOP B. & Sh. 306 1872-73 B. & Sh. 340 1871-72 g W. B. Whitehead B. & Sh. 401 1869-70 j h W. B. Whitehead SKOP W. B. Whitehead SKOP B. & Sh. 305 1868-69 h

• i 721 1861-62

            $                                     W. B. Whitehead                                                                                                                                                                                                             i W. B. Whitehead                                                                                                                                    340  1858-59 W. B. Whitehead                                                                                                                                    730  1857-58 W. B. hhitehead                                                                                                                                    170   1655-57

  .~ -     - . . . -          _ _ - _ .              _- ._     _ . - .      .. _.~ . _ . _                            .          .. . ~.        - .   .

N WSES 3 ER TABLE 301.47-1 (Cont'd) SUCAR PRODUCTION AT THE WATERFORD PLANTATION (1828-1917) (Sneet 3 of 3) Suea r Suea r Snear House House Production Plantation owner /onerator Plantation Apostatue Cone t ruc tion (counde) Year W.B. Whitehead 562 1854-55 t W. B. Whiteheed 447 1852-53 W. B. Whitehead & Co. 400 1851-52 W. B. Whitehead & Co. 220 1894-50 l C. Perret Sr.. St. Martin. Delhonde & Peroux 248 1845-46 , Mrs. Charles Perret & l.

                  'P. Perret                                                                                                        4 36 1845-46 Charlee Perret & Co.                                                                                           305  1844 2

l P. B. St. Martin 130 1829 Charles Perret 250 1829 Charlee Perret. Jr. (eteam) 310 1829 P. B. St. Martin 210 1828 Charte= Perret 550 1828 Charles Perret. Jr. (eteam) 545 1828

                     = Production is tieted in hogehead from 1828 - 1889 ABBREVIATION KEY:

DEV&C. . . . . . . . . . . . .Doub le E f fect s. Vacuum-Strike Pan and Centrifueste S&K. . . . . . . . . . . . . .Steem and Kettlee ,

y SKOP . . . . . . . . . . . . .Steem. Kettlee. Open-Strike Pan i g STOP . . . . . . . . . . . . . Steam Train. Open-Strike Pan 1 E. STV&C. . . . . . . . . . . . .Steen Train. Vacuue-Strike Pan and Centrifutale

       $             B. & St. . . . . . . . . . . . Brick and S tate Roof Suaar House R             B. & Sh.    . . . . . . . . . .        . Brick and Shinale Roof Suear House z             W. I. & S1 . . . . . . . . . . Wood. Iron and Siste Roof Sutar House
       ?             B . Sh . & S t . . . . . . . . . . Bri a" . Sningle and State Sugar House u

Source: Bouchereau. Champonier and Degaloe. va riou s ye are C 51 8 1

g, .$ /r STATE OF LOUIS!ANA DEPARTMENT OF CULTURE, RECREATION AND TOURISM xs [** Y, OFFICE OF PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT

 %       EDWIN W EoWAAos                           E. BERNARD CARRIER, PhD                        J.LAARY CR AIN, Pho co. no.                                     Amu.m s.o.i. ,                                s.o. . .,,

February 14, 1980 Mr. William H. Reagan, Jr. Acting Assistant Director for Environmental Projects & Technology Division of Site Safety and Environmental Analyses U.S. Nuclear Regula tory Commission Washington , D.C. 20555 / Re: Louisiana Power and Light Company Waterford Steam Electric Station Unit 3 St. Charles Parish, Louisiana

Dear Mr. Reagan:

At the request of the Louisiana Power and Light Company, members of my staff met reith Louisiana Power and Light and their archaeological

 /^              consultant, Envirosphere Inc. , on February 7,1980 at the Waterford site.

Based on this on site inspection, we offer the following Qbserva-tions for your consideration: (1) No significant old buildings are in or adjacent to the project area; and since the area is heavily industrialized, tnis project will have no additional i visual impact on any other structures in the area. l (2) Since much of the remaining 1roperty is in backswamp, the likelihood of finding prehistoric Indian sites in this area is low. (3) It now appears that the Waterford Plantation has been destroyed by construction ac tivities , and tha t li ttle, if any, rennants of the site still exist. 1 l

                                                                                                                               )

OlVISION OF ARCHAEOLOGY AND HISTORIC PRESERVATION O LOUISIANA P O Bos 44247 Baton Rouge. La. 70804 504 342 6682 Amendment No. 2, (10/80) Figure

                                                                                                                               ;

STATE HISTORIC PRESERVATION OFFICER POWER & LIGHT Cu. l SCOPE OF SECOND ARCHAEOLOGICAL SURVEY j Waterford Steam SHEET 1 OF 2 301.47-1 Electric Station 1

Mr. William H. Reagan, Jr. (~'s February 14, 1980 (V) Page Based on these findings, we wish to modify our recommendations outlined in our letter of December 27, 1979, and suggest that only a detailed literature search of the Waterford property be conducted. If this research should indicate areas which might contain undisturbed cultural deposits, then additional archaeological testing may be warranted. However, if the literature search does not reveal any significant information, then an on-the-ground survey would not be necessary. If you have any questions concerning our review, please contact my staff in the Division of Archaeology and Historic Preservation. Sincerely, J%f E. Bernard Carrier State Historic Preservation Officer EBC:GHM:lm l cc: Louisiana Power and Light Company,1001~ Virgil St. , Gretna LA 70053 Envirosphere, Inc., 2 World Trade Center, 90th Floor New York NY 10048 i l Amendment No. 2, (10/80) Figure STATE HISTORIC PRESERVATION OFFICER POWER & GHT C0* SCOPE OF SECOND ARCHAEOLOGICAL SURVEY Waterford Steam SiEET 2 OF 2 301.47-1 Electric Station

                                        .unn.+
                                         -       -u  . w-                  =. -              ..-

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                                                                                                                                            }

t i l e TABLE OF C0flTENTS i

PAGE , j ' s 4 , ! I. INTRODUCTION 3  ; ) I II. FORECAST SUf1 MARY 5 1-III. SYSTEM STRUCTURE 6 j i i

                                                                                                                                             ;

i IV. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY 9 i ! l V. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE SOUTH UTILITIES SYSTEM 14  : l[ ! VI. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR ARKANSAS POWER AND LIGHT COMPANY 23 l i i VII. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR ARKANSAS-MISSOURI  ; POWER AND LIGHT C0ftPANY 29 l f ! VIII. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR LOUISIANA POWER ,

AND LIGHT COMPANY 33 l

1 '

;                                IX. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR f11SSISSIPPI POWER AND LIGHT COMPANY                                         39 l

i ! X. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR NEW ORLEANS PUBLIC  ! SERVICE, INC. 45 , i XI. METHODOLOGY 50 I 5 kn. No. 2 (10/80)

3 1 O I. INTRODUCTION In recent years the need for imoroved forecasts of long-range c'actric energy consumption and hourly demand has become in-creasingly apparent. New generating capacities and costs of

f. hat capacity are increasing while uncertainties and new factors--

energy prices and availability, conservation, solar energy, etc.-- are confronting the forecaster. To cope with the changes, improved forecasting methodologies are required. The methodology must have the ability to explore in detail the impact of these factors on

energy consumption and peak demands. Furthermore, they must be 4

flexible and detailed enough to incorporate these factors easily and explicitly. Another necessary characteristic is that the methodologies be based upon causal and easily understood relation-ships in deriving energy and demand estimates. In developing the methodology to be used in planning for future energy needs, one must closely examine the underlying economic forces which create energy demand. The Middle South Utilities System (MSU) Companies have developed an econometric load fore-casting model which takes into account these various economic l factors that together determine the demand for electricity for d each of the five MSU Companies. One of the major enhancements 1 of this year has been the extension of the forecast horizon from fifteen years to twenty-five years. The purpose of this report is to impart to the reader a general knowledge of the methods used in producing the forecasts and the results obtained. More detailed discussions of the methodology employed and the variables forecasted for each of the five Operating Companies are contained in other reports.

r\

 \

Am. No. 2, (10/80) .

5 (h t II. FORECAST

SUMMARY

The macro-economic forecast of the U. S. economy employed in the production of the MSU forecast is taken from Data Resources, Inc. This forecast, called TRENDLONG2003 (January,1979), assumes that the government's economic stabilization policies are highly suc-cessful resulting in balanced growth of the economy toward its potential. Over the twenty-five year forecast period 1978 to i 2003, Gross National Product adjusted for inflation (Real GNP) is forecasted to grow at an average annual rate of 3.0% while the inflation rate is forecasted to average 5.8% per year. Over the preceeding quarter century (1953-1978) those rates were 3.3% and 3.9% respectively. L Since the economic fate of the MSU System Service Area is largely dependent on the course of the U.S. economy, it is not surprising to find that slower growth for the U.S. implies slower growth for the System. Two common measures of a region's economic well-being are incomes and employments. The income per capita (adjusted for inflation) for the MSU System Service Area is forecasted to grow from 1978 to 2003 at an average annual rate of 2.4% while the U.S. real income per capita grows at 2.1%. For the period 1964 to 1978, these growth rates were 3.4% and 2.6%. Total non-farm employments T for the Service Area are forecasted to grow at 2.2% while the U.S. j non-farm employments grow at 1.5%. These growth rates were 4.5% and 2.8% from 1964 to 1978. The growth in income is an important determinant of the growth in Residential energy sales while the growth in employments in the Service Area is an important determinant of the growth in

          . Industrial and Commercial energy sales. Residential, Industrial and Commercial energy is forecasted to grow from 1978 to 2003 at               -

average annual rates of 4.5%, 5.5% and 3.3% respectively. From 1965 to 1978, these growth rates averaged 9.5%, 8.8%, and 8.2% respectively. f;et Service Area sales are forecasted to grow at 5.1% while experiencing 10.1% historically. The maximum annual demand for electricity, called the system peak load or peak demand has historically occurred during an hour during the summer months or early September. At the time of the system peak, residential e.ppliances, industrial machinery and commercial requirements for lighting and cooling combine to produce the highest coincident load during the year. Factors influencing the timing and level of the system peak include weather phenomena, economic conditions and public efforts to control use. The fore-casted MSU System peak grows at an average annual rate of 4.9% while the historical (1965-1978) growth has been 8.3%.

  /%                                                                                             ,

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

6 III. SYSTEf1 STRUCTURE The MSU Load Forecasting System consists of three major comnonents: the Service Area Economic Model, the Energy riodel, and the Peak Demand Model. Figure A illustrates the overall structure of these models whose ultimate results are a highly disaggregated forecast of KWH Sales and a farecast of the tiSU System annual peak load. The macrc-economic forecast as well as regional and national data are utilized from Data Resources, Inc.'s databanks. The principal function of the Service Area Model is to forecast income, wages end prices, employments and demographics - births, deaths, migration, population. The employment forecast is segre-gated into major manufacturing and non-manufacturing classri. The principal function of the Energy Model is to forecast energy consumption by a number of categories. The Residential category includes a forecast of number of customers, number of all-electric customers, average usage Der customer and major appliance satura-tions. The fianufacturing category includes energy forecasts by two-digit Standard Industrial Classification Code. Similarly, the Non-manufacturing forecast is developed by major breakdowns. Addi-tional forecasts are made of miscellaneous categories such as streetlighting and sales for resales. The sumation of the energy consumption forecast in each category is the forecast of the total revenue producing sales for the System. The principal function of the Peak Demand t'odel is to forecast summer peak loads by adding up the contribution made by each class of customer. Details provided in the energy model forecasts are used to develoo the indicators of the sectors' contributions. The MSU Load Forecasting System utilizes an econometric approach for both the analysis of historical data and the forecasts. The analysis consists of determining factors or predictors which correlate with emerienced changes in electricity usage or responses. These factors may serve as proxies for the causal factors or may simply have undergone changes in a pattern similar to the changes of the aggregate of the true causal factors. Clearly, energy usage is dependent on economic activity and in order to olan for our customers' energy needs we must understand the underlying economic forces which determine those needs. By carefully considering the ways in which our customers use electricity as inputs to industrial processes, as tools in commercial establish-ments and as a service in the household, we can develop econometric models that take account of the determinants of the demand for electricity by each sector and the crucial linkages between the activities of these sectors. The major strengths of this structural framework are that it makes explicit our assumptions about the factors affecting energy usage, it insures internal consistency among the sectors based on economic conditions and it allows the Am. No. 2, (10/80)

O O O i MIDDLE SOUTH lITILITIES LOAD' FMECASTINCi SYSTEM I DRI Macroeconomic Forecast MSU Service Area _ Economics SERVICE 1 r Service Area Q AREA ECONOMIC

                                                                                    -                     Economic Forecast MODEL          -                                                        5 c

DRI Data Banks A National - Regional ENERGY Energy MSU ' MODEL Forecast Energy Customer Electricity Price Alternate Fuel Cost Weather g

                                                                                                                   @   PEAK           Peak Demand DEMAND MODEL          Forecast z                     MSU                                                                           7
               .                        Peak Demand u                      Load Shapes Weather E$

s ~ S

8 e user to determine the impact of alternative economic conditions on each sector. The development of the structural framework of the model uses historical information ca U.S. economic conditions, national energy markets and the individual System Goerating Companies' service area economic conditions, weather conditions and company policies. The forecasts are made by using the forecast of U.S. economic conditions and national energy variables to forecast each service area's economic conditions, which in turn are used by the Energy Model to produce forecasts of energy sales to each of the sectors in each of the Operating Companies. Finally, the individual sectors' energy sales forecasts are used to produce the Co ranies' peak load fore-casts. These sequential modules enable the forecaster to analyze the output of each model before going on to the next stage to insure that the forecasts are reasonable or to determine the impact of a change in a particular predictor (e.g. , prices) on a particular response (e.g., usage per customer). O O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

9 Q IV. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY In making long-term forecasts, the forecaster must be aware that the economy is subject to certain shocks such as oil embargoes, an automobile workers' strike or crop failures. However, while these shocks may significantly affect the level of output of the economy, it is not possible to foresee the magnitude, timing or impact of the shocks over a long forecast horizon. For this reason, long-term forecasts are made by determining a most probable , trend around which the economy may fluctuate due to such shocks. The most important determinant of the long-term growth in the U.S. economy used by ORI in their forecasts is Potential GNP, a sumary statistic representing the level of output which could be attained if all factors of production were being utilized at their maximum sustainable levels. Potential GNP can be thought of as the long-run capacity of the U.S. economy to produce goods and services. Since the growth of Potential GNP depends on the growth rates of the factors of production and their efficiencies, we have examined each factor's contribution, both in history and in the forecast. Table I shows the contributions to Potential GNP of each of the major inputs to production and a residual. The residual occurs because the Labor and Capital data do not include productivity p measurements TABLE I Potential GNP Growth Factor Contributions (Per cent per year) 1952-65 1965-78 1978-90 1990-2003 Labor 0.86 1.44 1.05 0.62 Business Fixed Capital 0.86' O.94 0.86 0.70 Residential Capital 0.32 0.31 0.30 0.24 Energy 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.09 Residual 1.42 0.86 0.74 0.90 Potential GNP 3.59 3.58 3.07 2.55 Source: Christopher Probyn, "The Outlook for Potential," Data Resources Long-Term Review, Winter 1979, p. I.23 O L] Am. No. 2, (10/80)

10 The growth of labor's contribution depends on: a) the growth rate of the population, which is forecasted to slow from 1.3% per year from 1952-77 to 0.8% from 1978-2003 as changes in life-styles reduce the probability of another

  " baby boom" and the ageing of the members of the last " baby boom" increases the death rate b) the increase in the proportion of the adult population who are either employed or actively seeking employment (the labor force participation rate), which is primarily due to in-creasing participation in the labor force by women and younger workers c)   the decline in the level of frictional unemployment (the amount of unemployment due to voluntary job-changing) from the present 4.9% of the labor force to a 4.7% rate by 2003 Analagous to the concept of frictional unemployment is the full capacity utilization rate; i.e. , the maximum sustainable rate at which the capital stock can be utilized. DRI assumes that this rate will continue to be constant at 87%. Given that assumption, the growth of business fixed capital will determine the growth of its contribution to Potential GNP. The forecasted growth in business fixed capital (net of pollution abatement equipment) averages 3.4% per year, slightly lower than the 3.7%

rate of the last twenty-five years, but considerably higher than the 2.7% of the last five years. The period 1973-78 is considered to be atypically low due to the adverse effects of a rapid rise in the stock of pollution-abatement equipment, low profit rates, high interest rates and more rapid inflation in the prices of capital goods than of consumer goods. Similarly, the growth in the real residential capital stock determines its contribution to Potential GNP. This growth rate is primarily dependent on the p.opulation and its composition and is, therefore, expected to grow at 2.8% per year as opposed to the 3.3% of the last eighteen years. The contribution of energy to the productive process is forecasted to grow more slowly due to the rising price of energy relative to other inputs. The OPEC embargo and the resulting rapid increase in energy prices are believed to be the most significant cause of the 1973-74 recession. Subsequently, there has been a reduction in productivity as energy-intensive processes become less efficient and the long-run effect on Potential GNP is moderated by the fact that only about 5% of the total factor costs accrue to energy. The size of the residual's contribution is forecasted to decline, but its relative importance as c ontributor to growth rises to 35% by 2003. The most impor+c < fntor in the residual is productivity. Output per , W ,ur; a measure of productivity, has a 1973-78 growth o' .F - year and points to one of the major risks of this fu m ... ,RI's research on the causes of the recent decline in icoduct M O leads them to believe Am. No. 2, (10/80)

       .   .         _                -                           =        ..

11 C'\

Q_ that the three major causes are temporary in nature. These are: (1) the low growth in capital stock, (2) the energy related problem discussed above, and (3) the pronounced cyclical path of the economy. The forecast is for output per man-hour to grow at an average annual rate of 1.94% per year 1978-90 and 1.96% per year 1990-2003. These thirteen year averages are higher than i the 1.8% erowth of the last. thirteen years, but considerably lower than the 2.6% of 1952-64. Once this trend line for Potential GNP has been established, the next step in preparing a long-term forecast is to determine the relationship of Actual GNP to its Potential. Figure 1 shows this relationship in history and in the forecast. As can be seen, Actual GNP has risen above Potential GNP (in 1953, 1966-69, and 1973), but in every case bottlenecks occurred and a recession followed. These bottlenecks have been observed whenever the actual umemployment rate is lower than the frictional unemployment rate or the capacity utilization rate is higher than the full capacity utilization rate. or both. This signals that the labor force or the capital stock is being used at a rate which cannot be sustained. The latest of these recessions hits bottom in 1975 and its effects are forecast to be felt through 1986 in the form i of cyclical corrections (e.g. , a decline in residential construc-tion in 1982 slows the growth of GNP). f ( , FIGURE 1 POTEtlT!nl Vs. ACTURL CUTPui REAL GR0sS tJATICliDL PRCCUCT I L 0 2500-- lJ S o F 2000- - 1 2 ' 1500--- .~ o .- 0 4,.- L .. y 1C00-- S .

                        =               i          i           i         i            i         i 1950       15C0       1970         1980     1930         2000 PCTE:TICL ECUALS L!!;E                           SCTUrl ECUALS CGT
  '\

Am. No. 2 (10/80)

12 Table II presents historical and forecasted growth rates in more O detail. The 1953-78 period was characterized by the " baby boom" and large research and development expenditures; the 1973-77 period contains the worst post-war economic recession; 1978-82 is the forecasted recovery from that recession; and the period 1983-2003 is one of smooth growth of the economy toward its potential. This table points out some of the factors previously discussed. Note that in the long-run (1953-73 and 1983-2003) actual GNP and poten-tial GNP grow at about the same rate. Whereas in the short-run, actual GNP growth is lower in a recession (1973 ~,7) and higher in a recovery (1978-82). One of the factors causing the recent low growth in the capital stock is evidenced by the great disparity in the growth rates of the CPI and the WPI. Whereas, the impact of increased energy costs to producers is evidenced i.n the phenomenal growth rate in the WPI for Fuels and Power. The continuation of the trend toward a service-oriented economy is evidenced by the higher growth rates in non-manufacturing employments relative to those in manufacturing. While this trend results in lower produc-tivity, as can be seen in the lower growth rates in GNP compared to those of manufacturing production, it may be stabilizing the economy since non-manufacturing employments are much less volatile than manufacturing employments. Finally, we see the reduction in the growth rate of the population, which is a principal determinant of Potential GNP. O O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

13 [ 1 j- TABLE II

                                                      ' Capsule Outlook of the U.S. Economy i                                                            Compound Annual Growth Rates Forecast History j                                                                                      53-73          73-77               78-82           83-2003
!                        ,0UTPUT (1972 dollars)

Actual Real GNP 3.39 2.05 3.48 2.93 Potential Real GNP 3.58 3.55 3.24 2.70 INFLATION (1967=1.0) Consumer Price Index, All Items 2.66 7.90 7.19 5.77 {

                            . Wholesale Price Index, All Items                            2.33           9.72             7.21            5.79 Wholesale Price Index, Fuel & Power                          2.32       21.09               10.61            7.99

EMPLOYMENT Manufacturing 0.71 -0.07 0.51 0.61 Non-Manufacturing 2.76 2.75 2.78 1.52 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 4.91 2.03 4.16 4.07 POPULATION 1.36 0.76 0.90 0.74 ,

1 This series begins in 1954. 1

In the following sections we shall discuss the impact of these

forecasts on the Middle South Utilities System as a whole as well as the individual operating companies.

t i 5 ?

;

i 1

-

4 }' Am. No. 2, (10/80) d

14 - V. THE L0flG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE SOUTH UTILITIES STEM This section presents a forecast for the MSU System which was obtained by aggregating the forecasts for the individual Operat-ing Companies. A. The PiSU Service Area Economic Forecast The Sunbelt Shift is a name that is used to describe the movement of corporations and population from their traditional locations in the florth to the South. The MSU Service Area has been a beneficiary of a portion of this industrial growth and the forecast is for this shift to continue, although at gradually decreasing rates. One of the most important sources of regional economic growth is an increase in manufacturing in the region. This increase causes increased employments and higher wages which attracts workers who in turn increase the demand for locally provided goods and services. This further leads to greater economic opportunity in the region which attracts workers and the cycle begins again. This " multiplier effect" is well documented in the economic literature and its implications for the MSU Service Area economy are a continuation of the growth patterns experienced in the recent cast. The growth of manufacturing in the Service Area deoends on the types of industries represented . The pie charts in Figure MSUl show a comparison of the relative mix of manufacturing employ-ments in the MSU Service Area and the U.S. in selected years of history and of the forecast. The nost rapidly growing industries in the U.S. have been those concerned in the production of goods used primarily by other producers, as can be seen from the in-creasing shares of employments in machinery (MACHI'lE) and petro-chemicals (PETR0 CHEM). The slowest growing industries have been those concerned in the production of goods used primarily by consumers, as can be seen from the declining shares of such necessities as FOOD and textile products (TEXTILE). These trends are continued in the forecast. Because the MSU Service Area is a recioient of a large share of the growth in manufacturing, these trends in the U.S. economy have strikina impacts on the composition of the Service Area's manufacturing employments. Producers of machinery replace firms in the lumber, furniture and paper industries (WOOD) as the largest manufacturing employers as the FOOD, TEXTILE and WOOD industries' share falls from 677, in 1964 to 40% in 2003. The share of instrument manufacturers' employments (INST) grew dramatically from 1964-1977, but remains fairly stable in the forecast. O I l l Am, No. 2, (10/80)

1 15 FIGURE MSul MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENTS I HISTORY 1964 1977 os

                                                                                      '>r                                                       q
                                                               %                 A                                                       /
                                                                                     '*"        E                      ""***                **"

MIDDLE SOUTH UTILITIES '

                                                                           ,,                                                          os tot                                                       20s
                                                             #+,,             f                                                      l      ,%

rom ma rn'  : UNITED STATES . ,,, E 3 4,,  %, 1  ! O E # x v FORECAST

i 1990 2003 i

                                                                     ,,,                                                         in g                                        g              4 g ,,
                                                                                 /                                       "%      '

l '" MIDDLE SOUTH UTILITIES l rom E  : f ,a, Y ! r, A as, au

p tor p, UNITED STATES g' m.

                                                                 '\           /

f

                                                                                /'/
                                                                                                =                    5    ms I
                                                                                                                                           #  ,cw     :

r,,, '~st [ Y - . - 2 E 36 5 Jet O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

16 FIGURE MSU2 MIDDLE south UTILITIES SYSTEM SERVICE AREA EMPLOYMENTS Manufacturing & Non-Menufccturing M.llions s.s 3o 2 89 2.s 2 55 i 2,,3.L 203 C 2.0 . . . - 464 M h 85 = le 3 h; *  ;^l l D i.o L' i 3y

m. . : G gj y.h M R E J p( f' '

(M kt "T 5 m w c.m

                        .:a d
                                %        e r.f pm q.y Km         Q
                                                                     %      ::4 r965    is70    s7s       saa     ses       eso       ess   2;co h MANUFACT4R.NG   C NON.MANUFACTUR;NG This rapid growth of manufacturing employments invokes the
  " multiplier effect" leading to rapid growth in the non-manufac-turing sectors as well.           Figure MSU2 shows the mix of manufac-turing(and   non-manufacturing three 3) non-manufacturing                employments employees                     and indicates per manufacturing           that employee continues to prevail in the forecast, as it has in the past.

Figure MSU3 shows the comparison of Total Non-Farm Employments in the Service Area to those of the U.S. The convergence of these lines indicates slower growth in the Service Area, the divergence in the 1973-75 recession indicates greater stability in the Service Area and the continuing divergence in the fore-cast is indicative of faster employment growth in the Service Area. This employment growth leads not only to higher incomes, but more importantly to higher average income per person. After adjusting this per capita income for inflation, we obtain one of the most widely accepted measures of econeaic well-being, real per capita personal income. Since this represents the average amount of goods and services available to each person, it is gratifying to see in Figure MSU4 that the buying power of consumers in the MSU Service Area continues to approach the national averace going from a 1965 value of 69% of the U.S. average I to 85% of the U.S. average by 2003. l l l l l O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

17 FIGURE MSU3 t.0:1-FARM EMPLOYMEtlTS , MSU SERVICE nRER ( L!rJE ) VS. U. S. ( 00T ) H 3 . 5- -

                                                                                                                                                                        - 150                 M i

I I L L L L I 3.0-- 1 1 0 0 i N , - 125 N ) S S )

                               -     2.5-~                                                                                            ,..~                                                    -

M .-** U U 2.0-- - 100 S i

                                                                                           ,                                                                                                                            l i

i 1.5-- '

                                                                        ,' ,    '                                                                                       - 75 1.0--                .

i

                                       .5                        l                        l                      l                                      l                l50 19C0               1970                     1900                   1990                                    2000 FORECGSTED V8 LUES DEGirl 4N 1978 G

FIGURE MSU4 REDL PER C6 PITA PERS0t:nt It1CCt'E MSU SERVICE OREA ( Lit 4E l VS. U. S. ( DOT ) - 1 6. 0-- , 0

• O .. .

0, ,- ( S ,' \ [ e. 4.5- - I L - l'

, 3.0- - I e 1.5- -} l l l l l 19G0 1970 1000 2090 2000 FORECA3TED VOLLES DEGl:1 lt: 1978 Am No. 2, (10/80)

18 The increase in incomes and employments creates economic oppor-tunities within the Service Area which cause people to move here. It also reverses the outward migration experienced in the early 1960's when people moving out of rural areas in search of jobs had to move out of the Service Area to find them. In Figure MSU5, up until 1970, the growth rate of population in the Service Area was generally below that of the U.S. with an actual decline occuring in 1967. The forecast shows MSU's Service Area population continuing to grow more raoidly than the U.S.'s with two exceptions. These exceptions occur during the third quarter of 1978 when the U.S. growth rate jumps up and also during the year 1981 when a brief slowdown in economic activity lowers migration rates. The proportion of the U.S. population living in the MSU Service Area grew from a low of 2.855% in 1970 to 2.918% in 1977 and is fore-casted to grow to 3.089% by 2003. While the magnitudes of these percentage changes are not large, the 1977-2003 increase meals an increase of more than 17,000 people per year over what would be needed to maintain that 2'.918% share. FIGURE MSU5 POPULATION GROWTH RATES MSU SERVICE DEA ( LINE) vs. U. S. ( o0T ) 2 C O M - P

                                  ,1 .g<A 8              e     .

f 1 ....,

                                                    }    ,        ,

u ... . .; < g c::.- - N l U I p O j

                               /   J A

T E s

               -1                   l                    {          l             l    l 1900              1970                 1980       1930          2000 FORECilSTED YPLUCS DEG'il IH 13/3 O

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

 ~

19 B. The MSU System Energy Sales Forecast The end of the era of inexpensive energy is causing dramatic changes in the sales of electricity. The consolidation of the individual Ooerating Companies' sales forecasts show a compound annual growth rate of 4.89% from 1979-2003, less than half the

size of the 10.55% between 1965 and 1977. Even with this lower l growth rate, Total Sales are forecasted to reach 174.5 billion

! kilowatt-hours by 2003, over three (3) times as much as was sold in 1978. The most rapid growth occurs in Other Sales

• whose

;                share of Total Sales rises from 1% in 1965 to 15% in 1977 to 19%

j in 2003. Since Figure MSU6 was generated by placing each line J on top of the preceeding lines (i.e. , adding each class to the

ones below it), this rapid growth can be seen in the increasing j distance betwean Total and Residential lines.

FIGURE MSU6 MIDDLE south UTILITIES SYSTDi ENERGY SALES j Billions of Kilowatt Hours iso' i4o ' TOTAL I?o '

                              ,oo.

RESIDENTIAL i go. 6o. tNDUSTRIAL lo . 4 _ e . _ _ e e . Industrial Sales are forecasted to replace Residential Sales l as the second fastest area of growth. Industrial Sales grew at I a :conpound annual rate of 9.15% from 1965 to 1977, but as rising energy prices cause manufacturers to seek more energy efficient ways of producing their output, the growth from 1979-2003 will be at 5.18%. The forecast's assumed comoromise on the deregulation

   \j

• Other Sales include Sales for Resale such as Municioals and Cooperatives but do not include Sales to Adjoining Utility Systems.

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

20 of oil and natural gas prices is expected to greatly reduce the possibility of future natural gas curtailments and nany industrial customers who might have converted from natural gas to electricity to insure reliable sources of energy can no longer be expected to do so. Commercial Sales continue to have the slowest growth rate falling from 8.22% in the 1965-1977 period to 3.17% fron 1979-2003. FIGURE MSU7 MIDDLE SoVTH UTILITIES SYSTE M AVERAGE ANNUAL KWH USE per Residential Customer KWH 2:000, s.ew. 4

              ,,,000
                                                            ,rm, qp")
                                                                          +:
              'SM                                  u
                                                     .c      +

p p . , 41

                                             ,: @ ' [ ii,3 s
                                   ,A:.
                                      +;... h.W d.N     ,e i'lA p ,
                                                                      ?

7o0Q

                **** ,1;. .

l som .- '7 .n

                                                - :.d1 a :, - %

f < .g4 SQ cW4 1 1965 b7o IL.. ?Q$1}hdIl DTS sao 585 1990 lY35 2000 Residential Energy Sales' growth rate is forecasted to fall from the 9.78% experienced from 1965-1977 to 4.38% from 1979-2003. The primary cause of this droo is a reduction in the growth rate of usage per residential customer, deoicted as the slope of the line in Figure fiSU7. As the price of electricity rises faster than the prices of other goods, consumers can be expected to lower the rate at which they utilize electricity consuming appliances by adding insulation, lowering (raising) thermostat settings in winter (sunmer), purchasirq more efficient appliances, etc. In addition, the rapid growth in the saturation of air-conditioning slows as that saturation approaches 100%. These dramatic changes in residential electricity consumption cause the growth rate of usage per customer to fall from 6.925 (1965-1977) Am. No. 2, (10/80)

i 21 i (

  'g            to 2.34% (1979-2003). Compounding this effect is a reduction in

the growth rate of customers (Figure MSU8) from 2.54% per year

to 1.93% per year, due to the demographic changes discussed above

which reduce the proportion of young adults .(the principal group

!               in which household formation takes place) in the population.

FIGURE MSU8 MIDDLE south UTILITIES SYSTEM RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS SERVED (of year end) MILLloNS s I 21 i t.O i EfEO se  !.;'.; 4 O ,,,, Y h d ' m ny

                                                                 .;
                                                                      ?

1 o 4 j in .m '%' y i^, i ,l. 51 T t.:4 c . kq 3 h Y.h j N 1

                             .s .                  -     g         e  ,
                                      'd r

i f ,; } 3 p V A 1 . f; f C j.. q s [<:l 2

                                    %              .so-A a a,-s ,a e.

i: C. The MSU System Peak load Forecast

Because the System's sumer peak is determined by the same i

variables that determine System Energy Sales, namely the usage i patterns of our customers, the Peak Forecast uses the Energy j Sales Forecost as an input. Sales in each customer class are j' separated into weather-sensitive and non-weather-sensitive 4 portions and the forecast is made assuming that normal weather l conditions will prevail at the time of the peak in every year i e s Am. No. 2 (10/80)

22 of the forecast. The resultant forecasts, shown in Figure MSU9 at five (5) year intervals, yield a compound annual growth rate from 1979-2003 of 4.77% compared to the 8.29% from 1965-1977. FIGURE MSU9, MIDDLE south UTILITIES SYSTE M PEAK DEMAND MW 3'G' Proo] 2s,000-e 27.000-  ;. 25.354 -1 2s.000-23,000 < 21,00o - 2CL76

               '7A '                             16286                    ,

is,000 . i 15,000 f 9000- gw ~

                                      ~

tooo. ,, t j T ';1 ,

                                ~                                           '

sooo. y  : , 3000. + icoo. 1

                         -E[s r    eFo   e$PrUso       ses rno     ms        tooY O

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

23 VI. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR ARKANSAS POWER AND LIGHT C0tiPANY As has been the case throughout the historical period, in 1978 AP&L's Ultimate Customers consumed almost two-thirds of the electricity sold in the State of Arkansas. AP&L sold almost three-quarterg of the electricity consumed by ultimate customers 4 in the state. For these reasons and because the wealth of data available at the state level enables us to construct a better model, it was decided that the State of Arkansas would be used to represent AP&L's Service Area. A. The AP&L Service Area Economic Forecast As shown in Figure APL1, balanced growth u. employments has occurred in the past and is forecasted to continue. Manufacturing employments were 30% of Total Employments in 1977 and this pro-portion is 29% in the year 2000. The historical (1964-1977)

j growth rates of employments in Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing for AP&L's Service Area have been 4.0% and 3.6%, respectively while in the forecast (1979-2003) these connound annual growth rates slow to 1.7% and 2.2%. Even though these rates are slower than their historical counterparts, Non-Farm Enployments continue to grow more rapidly in Arkansas than in the U.S.

FIGURE APL1 ARKANSAS Pov.'ER 8 LIGHT Co. j SERVICE AREA EMPLoYt/ENTS Manufo !#.ng & Non-Mcnufc: taring Thousoncs 4200 g g . . , ICCS j soo E k W m k!!! ..... a

                                  .oo                      E                       n+

k. ; N^3 '

J

                                       .ss                       .
                                                                       %L          g.        ld              L .l i

[ r> : i =U r

                                                           ]
                                                            ~q-s                        '

(' . , jj j n. 3.q , g q 3

                                       ,j                       g
                                                                                      . ^       . V            4 665          070    S73           413       GS          H3    GS5       2000 NON-ENUFACTUR;NG hM4FACTLRLN3 4

! Total Sales to Ultimate Customers in the State of Arkansas were 20,759 billion KWH, according to the 1978 EEI Statistical Yearbook.

AP&L's Sales to Ultimate Customers was 13,099 billion KUH or 63%

of Arkansas' Total while AP&L's Net Area Electric Sales (Sales to l Ultimate Customers plus Sales to Municipals and Cooperatives) were i(A%./

               )         15,374 or 74% of the Arkansas Total.

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

24 Non-Farm Enploy nts in Arkansas have not always risen faster than those the U.S. , as indicated by the divergence of the lines in F.1 re APL2 during the late 1960's. With th^ exception of the lW6 recession, when employments fell 2.6% in Arkansas compared to a 1.7% dron for the U.S., the growth rate of Non-Farm Employments in Arkansas has been higher than that of the US. FIGURE APL2 Plotl-FnRM EMPLOYt'.ENTs 6P&L SCRVICE AREA (LINC ) vs. u. s. (DOT ) _ H I O L U L S I A 1200-- 0 y ' , . -125

                                                                                 ,         y S                                                                  ,,-              _

1000-- , .. u A P - 100 S COO-- ,, _ 73 COO-- .* ** 400 -l l l { j j l l50 19G5 1970 1975 1900 1935 1990 1995 2000 F 02ECf!STED VOLUES DEG!ti IN 1978 The impact of the higher growth rate of employments on popu-lation is dramatic. Figure APL3 shows that Arkansas' population was fairly constant until 1970 when the increased availablity of jobs caused rapid growth in the population with Arkansas' population growing more rapidly than that of the U.S. The increase in 1975 followed by a sharp decrease in 1976 was caused by about 150,000 Vietnamese refugees who were temporarily housed at Fort Chaffee, Arkansas. Statistical techniques have been used to remove this influence from the equation. As the average age of the U.S. population increases, more retirees will be moving into Arkansas. This phenomenon, along with continued employment growth brings about an increase in the forecasted corpound annual growth rate to 1.1% per year, cot pared to the historical growth rate of 1.0%. Real Per Capita Income, shown in Figure APL4, grew from 68% of the U.S. everage in 1965 to 77% in 1975 and is forecasted to reach 84% by the year 2000. Am. No. 2, (10/80)

25 I FIGURE APL3 FOPULHTIC'l GROWTH RaiES AP&L SERVICE AREn ( lit:E ) VS. U. S. ( DOT ) j 3 C 0 N i p 3 0 2 i 4 U N - 0 ' ~. g , n . ,. t 1 ' TT ,'

                                                                                                 ..._[

n a:; - t . 4 l l T O j E S

!                               -1        - --j                         l          -(     l      j            l                        f      l 19G5 19/0 1973 1930 1903 1990 1995 2000 1

F00.ECnSTED VALUES BEGIN !N 1979 FIGURE APla 1 j REAL PER CAPITA PERSC:lAL INC0t1I

l nP&L SERVICE AREA ( L!t.E ) VS. U. S. ( DOT )

1 C . 0-- ..- 0 0 .. ... . 0 ...' t S [ 4.5-n t

3. 0- -

                                             ,F                                                                                                                      .

I 1.5- l--l l l l l -- } l 1963 1970 1973 1900 19d3 193J 1995 2000 00ECOS ED \DLUES GEG!ra IN 1970 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

26 B. Theq\P&L System Energy Sales Forecast The most striking feature of AP&L's Energy Sales Forecast is the extraordinarily rapid growth of Other Sales, as indicated by the divergence between the Total Sales line and the line labeled Residential in Figure APL5. (Figure APL5 was contructed by adding each class of sales to the one below it). The share of AP&L's Total Energy Sales accounted for by Other Sales grew from 10% in 1965 to 19% in 1977 and is forecasted to be 46% by 2003. The source of this phenomenal growth is the forecasted sales to the Arkansas Electric Cooperative Corp. (AECC), which is not modeled in the MSU Load Forecasting Model. This forecast, when combined with the forecasts made by the MSU Load Forecasting Model, produces a compound annual growth rate of Other Sales of 9.3% from 1979-2003, while from 1965-1977 the growth rate was 13.7%. FIGliRE APLS ARKANSAS POWER t LIGitT Co. ENERGY SALES Billions of Kilowat t flours O LCL TOTAL 4Q 30 RESIDENTIAL 70 INDUSTRIAL l 10 j l N/O drS ti.33 1605 iLO E76 p030 t%5 l The second most rapid growth occurs in Residential Energy l Sales, which grew 10.3% per year historically and are forecasted  ! to grow at 4.4% per year. This results from a 2.5% growth rate in average annual usage per residential customer, which reaches O Am. No. 2, (10/80) l l

1 .!, ' 27 I D almost 20,000 KWH per year by 2003 (see Figure APL6) and a 1.8% l growth rate in the number of residential customers, which reaches the half million mark in 1989 (see Figure APL7). Historical growth rates were 7.7% for average annual usage per residential customer and 2.5% for number of residential customers. FIGURE APL6 1 ARKANSAS POWER & LIOT Co. ! AVERAGE ANNUAL KWH USE per Residential Customer KWH 3 4 i i 4

                   "'"'                                                                                                                                                     FIGURE APL7

) '"

                                                                                                               .v i

1

                                                                                               ,.c e.a-W@n    w

is,om i ARKANSAS POWER & LIGHT Co.

ts.ooo , A gj 4:n;=>.dn@

                                                                                                  . . J J .v.

j c,#4M;i4h;; RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS SERVED

'

                   "#                                                    4Y'#[N4       d. MY45,'!TIg      !!%p,.i                                                      (of year end) 90 %

MILLloNS

rom 4@ .cc.sS A, M W f; 2% %g$>

:WXM [M Y $$3,4 i .m .:. ^ a.. ,* .* %wL J

r s000

                                          . A u m:n. g'.[J>..j*f e h:* M'
                                                                                                                     ,,4#f.i @ O+d.f@. g',:

i .,,T,/m ; **i . >.*-, p'e 3

                              +

1 b Q' l . , _,  ?? ",i **&*W -l,?l h' h

• N; prs; t * -

g) f

                      '     $ hp' 6 '??~j 5 ?$*s N $fQNLQh :$

l 563 u/o 073 800 is93 trJO liFJs 2000 2.5 s I t.G J ! 8.5. i, t I 1.0. i

                                                                                                                                                                                                              ,$$4 M I
                                                                                                                                                                   .y          412               'D            7
                                                                                                                                         .m            

f  ; ) ' il - c-j 3 ess [a_f r,ro era F rJsa uos 1 oJo

                                                                                                                                                                                                               ;

a.,3 2o00 j i I I I i l 1 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ;

i

28 Commercial and Industrial KWH Sales are forecasted to grow at about the same rate, 3.2% and 3.1% respectively even though their historical growth rates were quite different, 7.9% and 4.2%. Both decreases are primarily caused by the slower onoloyment growth rates discussed above. The greater reduction in Commercial KWH Sales' growth is due to greater declines in the growth rates of employments in those Non-Manufacturing sectors in which AP&L sells a larger proportion of its Commercial KWH Sales (e.g. , Wholesale and Retail Trade). The compound annual growth rate of AP&L's Total KWH Sales falls from the 7.4% exoerienced from 1965-1977 to the 5.3% forecasted from 1979-2003. C. The AP&L System Peak Load Forecast As shown in Figure AF_d, the AP&L System summer peak demand is forecasted to be 12,367 IN in the year 2000. The compound annual growth rate from 1979-2003 is 4.9%, compared to 7.1% from 1965-1977. The peak demands by AECC and the City of Jonesboro are not forecasted by the MSU FIGURE AFL8 Load Forecasting Model, but their imoact on AP&L's peak demand is significant. The peak demand fore-ARKANSAS POWER ( LIGHT Co. Casts provided by AECC and Jonesboro PEAK DEMAND rise from 509 MW, or 13% of AP&L's peak demand, in 1979 to a984 MW, or 36% of AP&L's peak cemand, in 2003. This results in a compound annual growth rate of 10% in the peak demand by AECC and Jonesboro, significantly higher than the 4% growth in the forecasts of peak demands produced by the MSU Load Forecasting Model. 12,'J67 iI,000 < h

   *'                                 e,esi [

7000< f 5000- 4,494 [ 3000 ,g 2.y8 U. l Ol Am. No. 2. (10/80)

29 iO V VII. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR ARKANSAS-MISSOURI POWER COMPANY For the purposes of the Economic Service Area Model, ARK-M0's Economic Service Area is defined as the ten (10) counties in Missouri (Dunklin, Howell, Iron, New Madrid, Gregon, Pemiscot, Reynolds, St. Francois, Washington and Wayne) and eight (8) counties in Arkansas (Clay, Craighead, Fulton, Greene, Lawrence, Mississippi, Randolph and Sharp) in which ARK-M0 provides service to ultimate customers. A. The ARK-M0 Service Area Economic Forecast NON-FARN EMPLOYMEt1TS j ARK-M0 SERVICE RRER (LINE) vs. u. S. ( DOT ) _ H I , O L U L s i A 0 I3 { y 150 - .. - 125 g i s .. u n R 100-- ,.

                                                                           '. ... '                             - 100           S

                                                            .-                                                                             FIGURE AMP 1 h                     50 -              , .* '
                                                                                                                - 75 i                         0-          l            l     l              l       l        l          l              l50 10G5 1970 1973 1980 1985 1000 1935 2000 FORCCHSTED VnLUES DEGlt! IN 1978 FIGURE AMP 2 As can be seen in Fig-                                                           ARKANSAS MISSOURI POWER Co.

ure AMP 1, Non-Farm Employ- SERVICE AREA EMPLOYMENTS ' ments in ARK-M0's' Service Monufcefuring ( Non-Mcnufacturing Area increased sharply in N""d5 the early 1970's and since t then have maintained a no .' r2 growth rate cnnparable to ,,, that of the U.S. economy. '" J_ This striking increase is 'm izr also displayed in Figure ,,, no E55 ,

AMP 2 as the 1970 level ** 4 of employment is about 2 @ y 60% higher than 1965's, ,o JL. us. . 5  ? 1 ~5 with manufacturing em-

                                                                                                        ~ ~ ' ~

ya 9 ;J J ,"i '; ployments rising'by 41% " 7 its M F b C'

                       .and non-manufacturing                                       x     h               i$             D            $q      $ ;g           %           h (p)                    employments rising 74%                                     ,,

m . ,

                                                                                                                                     "4       g               lL         keh    M4
  'u                     over that five (5) year                                                         -         '

h . 3 hL 545 1970 s975 19eo 585 1993 .199 5 2000 C MA%FACTWING. O hCN-WANJACTuM4 Am. No. 2, (10/807

30 interval. This dramatic imorovement in economic opportunity reversed the predominantly outward flow of pooulation indicated in Figure Af1P3 and sent population increases to levels approach-ing 3% per year in what appeared to be a period of making up for past losses. Both employments and population in the Service Area a.e forecasted to continue growing faster than in the U.S. , again with the exception of an unusual increase in the U.S. population ir. the third quarter of 1978. FIGURE AMP 3 POPULATION GROWill RATES fiRK-t10 SERVICE fiREA ( Lit.E ) VS. U. s. (DOT ) F c 0 2 l 5 , 0 u to D

. y . N ._

n ,q.-..V, ~ u

                                                         'I             O L

R

                                                                           ~
                                                                      -1
                                                                      -2           [      j         j     j     j     p       j     j 19CS 1970 1973 1900 1985 1990 1995 2000 FCRECOSTED VDLUES BEGIN IN 1978 FIGURE AMP 4 REDL PER CAPITH PLROCMhl It!C0t1E                                           In Figure AMP 4, we see ORK-t10 SERVICE niEA (l it[1 VS.                 U. S. ( DOT )                that AP.K-M0's Service Area's standard of living, as mea-sured by real per capita
                                                                    . . ~,               personal income, increases j G 0~~                                                   ,..-                       at about the same rate as that of the U.S., rising 0                                                 '..-

9 ,.. from 62% of the U.S. average s '

                                            ..~                                          in 1965 to 64% of the U.S.

R - ,

• average by the year 2000.

4.5- ,, E A L , e 3.0-i i i . i i 1 U' I f I l l l l l 1965 19/0 13/3 1990 1905 1990 1995 '/0C0 FC.kECH3TED Vr, LUES DEGIN Ill 1978 Arn. No. 2, (10/80)

31 B. The ARK-M0 System Energy Sales Forecast FIGURE AMP 5 I 1 s" ARKANSAS MISSOURI POWER co. FIGURE AMP 6 l ENERGY SALES B;ttionS of Kilowott Hours ARKANSAS MISSOURI POWER Co. AVERAGE ANNUAL KWH USE per Residential Customer KWH 3.o < TOTAL 2.S . l j RESIDENTIAL 2D, i 83 ,

                                                                                                                       '3em                                                                  .
                                                                                                                                                                                      .a .%-

INoUSTRIAL . y2  :

• g NA?

4. r,oca a#E%g:dE~.GS%M)piM;g A ... _

3000 e W.):,f'3.E "29@ diMEj l I

                                                                                                                               ?
                                                                                                                                            .,o N e,,                     ee,  - "[5
                                                                                                                                                                                - E, -

c FIGURE AMP 7 AnKANSAS MISSOURI POWER co. RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS SERVED (at year end) Industrial Energy Sales account uiti_ tons for over half of ARK-M0's Total Sales, shown in Figure AMPS, and had the fastest

;                                                                                                               growth among the customer classes (11.7%

.! from1965-1977). In the forecast, j Residential Sales' 4.0% 91 with rate is i slightly above the 3.8% of Industrial customers. Wnile the growth rate of

                       .,o                                                                                      average usage oer residential customer

] in Figure AMP 6 falls from 6.8% histori-cally to 2.3% in the forecast, the j m growth rate of residential customers in

                      ,                                                                         eli             Figure AMP 7 only falls 0.2% (compared
                                                                                      **                        to an MSU System average decline of 0.8%)

1- m a a, 9 w

                                                                                        ?          ?            from 1.9% to 1.7%.

D47 $

,                     .o4
                                      "*        7                '

s Y

                               .o,.      -

6 . 1 .

                       ,o3                       0. .
                                                                      ; *i   5                     7

( 3 '= d s

                                                                       .,     m                    .
                      .o.                       -                c',           d
                                                                                         ,        l f.

i 4, . I Peu 49 / o '4 - PJ6o Fs63 030 FJJS ' 2oGO

                                                                        -                                                                                                  Am. No. 2, (10/80)

. 32 C. The ARK-M0 System Peak Load Forecast From 1965-1977, ARK-M0's summer ceak load, shown in Figure AMP 8, grew from 128 MW to 340 MW, an average comoound annual rate of 8.5%. The summer peak is forecasted to grow at an average compound annual rate of 3.4%, reaching 753 MW by 2003. FIGURE AMP 8 ARKANSAS MISSOURI POWER Co. PEAK DEMAND MW pg O 700, 600. 59i sw. , a

                <w.                   ,u     *!*  ql             :i sw.            ;"             -

D i9 L3

                ,,,.      e            ?]
                                       ;       .

p 9 FJ ne <, a a ' l'

                                                                .]

j x ' }'j

                                                                 ;j
                      .. e,o   e ,,   em    es   e,o   Ja     er O

Am. No. 2. (10/80)

33 m fI J VIII. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR LOUISIANA POWER AND LIGHT COMPANY LP&L's Economic Service Area encompasses the 42 parishes of the State of Louisiana in which LP&L serves ultimate customers. A .' The LP&L Service Area Economic Forecast FIGURE LPL1 N0ft-FnRM EMPLOYMErlTS LP&L SERV!CE nREA (LIlJC ) VS. u. s (00T ) H [ O L

 ';              U                                                                                           L S                                                                                            I R                                                                                           0 y     700--                                                                  , . -125
                                                                                               ,             y s

_ . =....- ~

                                                                     ,,,. ***'..                             u 500--                                     ,.~~                                        s

{ ,

                                                                                                  - 100 L

• 300-- - 75 i

a 100- - l f l l l l l l50 19GS 1970 1973 1930 1935 1990 1995 2000 FORCcnGTFD VGLUEs ctg!rt Its 1978 The most striking feature in LP&L's Service Area has been the rapid industrial growth along the Mississippi River. This growth caused manufacturing employments to crow at an average rate of 3.5% per year historically. This growth in turn stimulates the growth of non-manufacturing employments. However, the historical

!              growth of non-manufacturing employments (7.4%) is somewhat mis-leading since changes in Louisiana's Employment Security laws caused artificial increases in the number of employees reported.

The result of nre of these changes can be seen in Figure LPL1 as j a sharp rise in non-agricultural employments in 1972. Forecasted growth rates for these employments are 2.4% in manufacturing and 3.1% in non-manufacturing, resulting in total employments over O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

34 800,000 by the year 2000 I,see Figure LPL2). FIG'JRE LPL2 LounslANA POWER & LIGHT co, SERVICE AREA EMPLOYMENTS Manufacturing & Non-Monufceturing Thousencs too y 2a 649 SS: N%

                                                                                 =

V' ' ' &

                                   .co m
                                                                                   ...... b
                                                                                            '~

d K D w 345

                                                                      @          M "U          .

2 ry ' h 2

                                                          .i(.i.i:
                                                           '        e It *,:l     9

7. h 234 ,

200 [ i

                                         =

a m t .a v:m r2 [+ c.

                                                                                    ';

n

                                                                                            ;.      &
                                                                                                     ,     ,w c,

w *'c +y, lv s _.; to ,

                                         #965     s70     $75          sao         sa5      eso     895    2000 h MANUFACTUFiAG          h NoN MArd,#;.0TL,RNG FIGURE LPL3 roPutor10:1 cRo::TH RnTES                                    The increased economic opportu-LPAL SERVICE fiREn ( LINE ) 'IS. U. s. ( DOT )                      nities brought about by this growth 3                                                                               are reflected in the population's growth rate being generally higher than that of the U.S. indicated in o                                                                                 Figure LPL3. The exceptions occur p                                                                                 in 1978 when a downward revision in the estimates of the Service W

2 u P Area population and a dramatic D rise in the U.S. population cause

                  ~

n the growth rate of population to L be lower than that of the U.S. u , , _

                   ,                                                                Also an increase in the standard

[ t  ; of living brings LP&L's Service [' ', :,g)!'.,,,,[ r .. . . . . " ~..,, Area's real ner capita personal n Ul p' " . . .' ' " ' ' ' ' income in Figure LPL4 up from 69% [ of the U.S. average in 1965'to 877, s of the U.S. averaoe by 2003. 0 ( fl [ f [ l l 10G5 1970 1975 1900 1985 1990 1995 2000 FO?[ CASTED V8 LUES CEGlil IN 1978 9 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

35 O

  /                                           FIGURE LPL4 i
   '% d
        )

REAL PER CAPITA PER$0:lAL INC0ttE

LP&L SEI d!CE ARER (L!i

E l VS. U. s. (00T )

f' 6.0-- - . o o o s ,...- i ln 4.5--

                                                       ~~

L

• 3 . 0-T" 4

1.5- l l l l l j j j 1965 1970 1975 1980 1905 1990 1995 2000 FORECnSTED VALUES BEGIN It! 1978

  'v         B. The LP&L System Eneray Sales Forecast                                                                                                 -

LP&L's Industrial energy sales FIGURE LPL5 grew by an average of 16.4% per year LOUISIANA front 1965-1977 as new firms moved NERc S LES

                                                                                                                                         ~

into the Service Area to take advan- Billions of Kilowatt Hours tage of extraordinarily low electric-ity prices charged by LP&L, low corporate income tax rates levied 70 by the State of Louisiana and low transportation costs afforded by the Mississippi River. While the fore-

• rorat cast assumes that the Mississippi will continue to be a low cost "'*' '" * '

5 i transportation route, Louisiana has increased its corporate income tax rate and LP&L has increased

• its electricity prices and these increases are forecasted to continue.

This results in a 6.4% growth rate , in Industrial Energy Sales from *****' , 1979-2003. Even so, Industrial Energy Sales are forecasted to grow n from 1977's 49% share of LP&L's i .

            -Total Energy Sales to 65% by 2003 3  L          (seeFigureLPLS).                                                         io
                                                                                                                                ~ 5bCIAL t

19GS 57o N75 50o 19 8 S 09o 19 4 20o0 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

                                                                                                                     ;

36 Residential Energy Sales fall from an 11.6% growth rate in 1965-1977 to 4.7% in 1979-2003. Increased electricity prices and slower growth in the saturations of electricity consuming appliances lower the growth rate of average annual usage per residential customer in Figure LPL6 from 7.7% to 2.4%. Resi-dential customer growth in Figure LPL7 falls from an historical growth rate of 3.6% to 2.2% in the forecast. For similar reasons, the Commercial Sales' growth rate falls from 11.4% per year historically to 3.5% in the forecast. FIGURE LPL6_ FIGURE LPL7 Louts!ANA POWER & LIGHT Co. LOUISIANA POWER & LIGHT Co. AVERAGE ANNUAL KWH USE RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS SERVED per Residential Customer (at year end) KWH MILLloNS

                                                                     .3 3.o 74                                                        1 ff :

t'm s.ox.

                                                .w.~.?

m,

j .c ir.ox. _ .; -

fj is. ooc cK ," ' ' 'O , - 1

                           ,   c, ', ; '        '**
                                                             -{     15
                  .y '
                     . j.                               *%

nm .;, , m now g.

                                          - .                  (

7o00 ~ '

                           . . ,        s ,

g g 704

                              ~
                                         ,[,       -    ,-

3' .So?

                                                             #j                   3m    T     ~    ^
                                        ;             ; p.i              yyT                  f   i
        ,d   7.? dri % ~'M 6fo" b f ixo                                 - s ,ho ln,     o         mo m3   , 20 0 Other Sales (not including sales to adjoining utility systems) shows a dramatic change from the 10.1% growth in the period 1965-1977 to a -2.0% from 1979-2003 as wholesale contracts expire in mid-1980.

C. The LP&L Systen Peak Load Forecast The result of the slower growth of energy sales (from 13.4% per year historically to 5.3% in the forecast) is a reduction of 9 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

1 i ! 37 + 1 0 the growth rate of LP&L's annual sumer peak load shown in Figure LPL8 from the 11.6% experienced historically to 5.0% in the forecast. 1 FIGtJRE LPL8 i Louls:ANA POWER & LIGHT Co. PEAK DEMAND MW j. l i i 1

i f 4 l O

;                                                                                                     if,716 f                            19,000.

9,429 7

                             *000.                                                                        p 7 **

rooo. d g 5781 .i 6000< 4,t56 E , h . 3ooo. un T  !!, t ;o

                                                ,n                 c      y                   -

1000-

• Y f _

f wo ero era rm en rno ros zooo l 1 I i i An. No. 2, (10/80)

39 IX. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR MISSISSIPPI POWER APID LIGHT COMPAtlY MPAL's Economic Service Area covers the 43 counties in Mississippi in which P1 PAL serves ulticate custonars. 1 A. The idPAL Service Area Economic Forecast 7 The strongest source of growth to the MPAL Service Area has

been from the growth of machinery manufacturers and of paper mills.

Their impact on manufacturing employments resulted in rapid growth in the late 1960's and appears to be doing the same in the late 1970's. These rapid growth rates are reflected in the increasing size of the dotted bars in Figure MPL1 in 1970 and 1980. The

average growth rate over the period 1964-77 was 4.2% per year. i Since machinery manufacturing is the fastest growing industry in the U.S. forecast, its importance in the MP&L forecast keeps manufacturing employments growing at 2.1% per year from 1979-2003 despite the drastic decline of growth rates in consumer-goods j industries (such as Food and Kindred Products). I i FIGURE MPL1 i MississlPPI POWER C LIGHT co. I SERVICE AREA EMPLOYMENTS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturmg Thousands O - l! U ~ cso soo p_o m a

                              *                          &                v          y$

n, m 4 .? s e tra ~ q y mm j

,                            ,,,  **1             ;-      .T        H     m    ::
                                  +       W     .m        %       1           M       )'

N N i,f {} R $  ; no em ors so oes .,o .e 2. hMANQFACTURM h hon MANLAACTURM i The growth rates of non-manufacturing employments are more stable than those of manufacturing employments. In the late 1960's and late 1970's when manufacturing employments are boom-ing, non-manufacturing employments grow more slowly. Ilowever, when manufacturing employments do slow down, their growth rates fall below those of non-manufacturing employments. This rela- < tively consistent growth yields a compound annual growth rate i of 4.4% from 1964-77 and a forecasted growth at 2.6% oer year from 1979-2003. Am. No. 2, (10/80)

40 The growth rates in manufacturing and non-manufacturing employments complement each other. The result is a growth rate in non-farm employments which exceeds the growth rate of non-farm employments in the U.S. in every year except 1975. This it evidenced by the convergence of the lines in Figure MPL2 in all years except 1975. (The sharp drop in the first quarter of

  ,. 1978 occurred because of a rebenchmarking of the data provided by the Mississippi Department of Labor). Non-farm emoloyments in MP&L's Service Area grew at a compound annual rate 1.6%

higher than the U.S. average for the period 1964-77. The fore-cast results in MP&L's non-farm employments growing an average of 1.0% faster than those of the U.S. FIGilRE MPL2 NON-FARM EMPLOYMErlTS MP&L SERVICE GRER (LINE ) VC. U. s. ( DOT ) _ H I O L U L 700- -

                                                                                         - 125    g h                                                                         ~~

S 600--- . ., ~~ - 500 -- ,-, . ' - 100 L ,.- 400-- ,

                                        '    =
                                  ,.                                                  - 75 300-  - -

200- j [ j ( l l { l50 19G5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1930 1995 2000 FORECOSTEJ VOI.UES DEGlu IN 1970 The increase in employments has provided enough economic opportunity to reverse the decline in the population of MP&L's Service Area shown in Figure MPL3. Between 1964 and 1970, MP&L's Service Area lost 45,000 residents while from 1970 to 1977, it gained over 52,000 residents for an average growth rate over the entire period of 0.05%. Continued economic strength in the forecast results in a compound annual growth rate of 1% from 1979-2003 and a population exceeding one and one-half million by 2003. O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

a j 41 i-i i i FIGURE MPL3 i POPUt.AT!DN CROWTH RATES

!                                                           MPtL SERVICE AREA (L!r.E) VS.                                            U. S.100T )                                                                                      l
!                                             3                                                                                                                                                                                      l 1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      L

l l C *  !

+                            0                2

!  ?! [ P 1 0 t U 14 **

                             ;

N

y. .........____ __

U 0 ' A - 4 ) R . $ -1 -- i E S

• 4 f I i t f a e n

i I i i i i l I l 1903 1970 1975 1900 1995 1030 1933 2000 F09ECA3?EU 'inLUE3 dEG!!! Irl 1978 L

l l FIGURE MPL4 i REAL PER CAPITA PERSO;lAL INCOMC Real-per capita personal in- MPIL serv!cE AaEA (L!r:E) vs. u. S. 100ri come in MP&L's Service Area i continues to rise faster than ..- the U.S. average, as seen in 1 the convergence of the lines in i s.0-- Figure MPL4. In 1964, the real

            .per capita personal income in 8

0 -'...***..  ! t MP&L's Service Area was 59.6% s .*',.. i of the U.S. average. By 1977 , '

                                                                                                                                                                                            ..~

that ratio had risen to 68.8%, 45~

• E ..-

and by 2003 it is forecasted A ,,. i to rise to 77.2%. ,...-

                                                                                                                                                      ..                                                                             i 3 . 0-?"

l is i i i i i i i i 10G5 1970 1975 1980 1995 1990 1935 2000 i FO?EC6STED ViiLUF.S OFG!ti Ira 1970 f i

Am. No. 2, (10/80).

42 B. The MP&L System Energy Sales Forecast FIGURE f1PL5 mississippi POWER & LIGHT Co. ENCRGY SALES Billions of Kilowot t Hours The strength of MP&L's Industrial

    ,,                                                        KWH Sales is reflected by the very small decline in the conoound annual
    ,o.                                                       growth rate resulting from the fore-twa'   cast. In the historical period fr'om 1965-77 Industrial KWH Sales have grown at 4.7% per year and they are forecasted to grow at 4.6% from
    's .                                                      1979-2003.

FIGURE MPL6

    '-                                                               MISSisstPPI POWER & LIGHT           CO.

AVERAGE ANNUAL KWH USE per Res'dential Customer KWH INDUSTRIAL 5. 4 COMMERCIAL 1965 ri'O s'if S b3o rh3 hjo ins !000 19.000, 17,000, Residential KWH Sales has is.mo i3.000 4&sa ^g(&F the second fastest growth rate , ,

• c4754'%dE in the forecast, 4.6% per year, having fallen from an historical '" Mf%N #R J M3 e WER 1i rate of 9.8% per year. Figure '" .j( $ ; j %

2 E

                                                                                                   ,l$2[ C [

tiPL5 shows the relationship $*o+? ?if f W between Residential and Indus- m d M S M Y dy % m W .." e trial KWH Sales with Residential increasing its distance above ic3f!

                                                                   ,J QN7 N+

M'a,,o -

                                                                         ,,,           n,o

[#,,,, (W9 h M"

                                                                                                  ~ ,g T;3-
                                                                                                            +3, the Industrial line in the historical period and maintain-ing the same distance in the forecast. The drop in the growth rate of Residential KWH Sales is primarily due to the reduction in the growth rate of the average annual KWH use per residential customer from the 6.5% per year experienced historically to the 1.9% forecasted to occur from 1979 to 2003. As can be seen in Figure MPL6, the KWH use per residential customer more than doubled from 5,200 KWH in 1965 to 11,020 K'iH in 1977.

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

43 [( Another doubling does not occur with'n the forecast horizon as KWH use per residential customer re6ches 18,675 KWH in 2003. Another contributor to the declining growth in Residential sWH Sales is a lower growth rate in Residential Customers. From 965 to 1977, the number of residential customers grew at 3.1% per year, while from 1979-2003 they are forecasted to grow at 2.5% per year. While these growth rates are declining, they were derived from ever increasing bases. Using the values from Figure fiPL7, the average increase in the number of customers in each year from 1965-75 was 6,800, while the averaje number to be added in each of the next twenty-five years is 8,400. FIGURE MPL7 MississlPPI POWER & LIGHT Co. RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS SERVED (of year end) MILLloNS I O j u to I i s, t o, _S, w *? '? re c' ,,, 6 p

                                                ?

9 no reo f} o n<3 im oo nn u,o Other KUH Sales falls from the second fastest growth rate (9.0% per year, 1965-77) to the tnird (4.2% per year 1979-2003) while Commercial KWH Sales also drops back one place as its growth rate falls from an average of 7.9% per year historically, to 4.0% per year in the forecast. The Total KWH Sales resulting from adding the forecasts produced by the Load Forecasting Model grows at a compound p\ e V . 1 i Am. No. 2, (10/80)

44 annual growth rate of 4.4% per year from 1979-2003 and exceeds 25 billion KMi by the year 2003. C. The MP&L System Peak Load Forecast As shown in Figure MPL8, the MP&L System sunmer peak load doubled from 1965 to 1975. The compound annual growth rate of the peak demand was 7.0% from 1965-77 and is forecasted to be 4.3% from 1979-2003. The peak load for the year 2003 is fore-casted to be 5,709 MW, over seven (7) times as large as the 788 MW experienced in 1965. FIGURE MPL8 , MISSISSIPPl POWER & LIGHT Co. PEAK DEMAND MW 9 7000, 5000' 4M6 C 30o0' 2m 'O i.s42 2 ' ,q J%3 (9 rs/O tl rs/3 U rJSO El r>u3 r7K) rWS 2000 O' Am. No. 2, (10/80)

45

 ;     X. THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR NEll ORLEANS PUBLIC SERVICE INC.

A. The N0 PSI Service Area Economic Forecast Like other cities in the U.S., New Orleans is experiencing econcmic decline as evidenced by decreasing manufacturing em-ployments, slow growth in non-manufacturing employments and the movement of population into surrounding suburbs. As can be seen in Figure NOP1 by the shrinking size of the upper portion of each bar, the number of persons employed in manufacturing has been declining at an average compound rate of 0.7% from 1960-1977 and is forecasted to decline at 1.4% per year from 1979-2003. FIGURE NOP1 NEW ORLEANS PUSUC SERVICE INC. SERVICE AREA EMPLOYMENTS Manufacturing & Non-Monufacturing Thousands 330 300 _ree m- , --- x tso * i d [[ m( M

                                 ",      y                  M-     .c r   m. <    . f.

cm .n',L p  %. t' l-J r sso 5 D_ _ k $(j$ ?i$; & N y  :. a m.  :: i;+ %y ,8 . .. y  % [L nw 3, w 4 ,o . p: e.. 3, 6 q

                                                            %       ,   , L ; ,- p~ .

r -6  !.: s ,, c. - . M, ' ess ero isrs eco 883 rno ess rooo

!                         C VANurACTURfNG      C NON.WANUFACTURTNG l

In comparing historical and forecasted growth rates of non-manufacturing and total employments, one must be awa;e that historical growth rates are overstated because changes in Louisiana's Employment Security laws have caused large increases i in reported employments that are not caused by increases in , l 1 l v) i l i Am. No. 2, (10/80)

46 FIGURE fl0P2 N0fl F6RN rMPtOYt'ENTS N0f'SI SCRVICC OREH (L!hE l vs. U. S. ( 00T ) T 400I -- 150 n actual emoloyments. An 7 8 [ example can be seen in j 33g_. g Figure fl0P2 as a sudden n increase in non-farm em-

                                                                            --125              N s             oloyments in 1972 resulting 300 -                                                 

from the extension of the N ,, ' ,..- u Employment Security laws to

                                            ,-                                                 s Cover businesses with fewer 0                                       ,.-                                 --100 than five employees. Even s

250--

                                    ..'                                                                      thou:S these employees had been there all along, they
                       .,'..                                                                                 were not counted until 1972, 200
                                                                            - 75                             at which time the reported 3'.-

erployments suddenly in-creased. Statistical methods have been employed to take 150- l l -j j j- l j l- 50 into account this qualita-19G5 1970 1375 1980 1993 1990 1995 2000 tive change in the data. FORLCnSTEU VnLUES LEGIN Itl 19/8 The growth rates of non- FIGURE fl0P3 manufact ring employments ' POPULni!ON GRCNTH RATES were 2.a from 1960-1977 NDPSI sERVICC RRER ( LIriC ) VS. U. s. ( 00T ) and are forecasted to be 2 0.9% from 1978-2003. The result of the combining 0 . of the slower growing g 1

                                                                                                  ~ if,..p .-

non-manufacturing sector o and the declining manu- W g ,e facturing sector is an 0 decrease in the average n growth rate of non-farm [j 1 J -, _ . _ __- _ employments from a u 1 historical rate of 2.4% to a 1 f the forecasted rate of 0.7%. , -2 n a J This decline opportunity insures in economic the [ -3 s continued loss of popula-tion as people move to the suburbs in search of lower -4 I i i i i i i l costs of living and better 19u3 19/0 1975 1930 1905 1920 1933 2000 employment opportunities. r0RrcnstE0 vm.or.s atain In 1970 As can be seen from Figure fl0P3, the growth rate of the population of Orleans Parish has consis-tently been lower than that of the U.S. and has been negative for most Am. No. 2, (10/80)

47 of the years since 1965. The comoound annual growth rate is forecasted to be -0.5% with the population falling to a half I million by 2003. From 1960-1977 the growth rate was -0.6%.  ! [ FIGilRE NOP4 REAL PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME

                     ,, NOPSI SERVICE 6RCA ( LINE ) vs.                   U. s. (00T )

f 7-- o ,.-

,           g
            ;       s-   -

l g ,-. ....* t 4-. 3-Y 2- l l l l l l l l 19CS 1970 1975 1980 1935 1990 1995 2000 FORECRSTED YALUEs CEGIN IN 1978 i Figure N0P4 shows an interesting anomaly resulting from the decline in population in Orleans Parish. Because the population relative to the U.S. falls more rapidly than does the real personal income relative to the U.S., the real per capita personal income in Orleans Parish rises relative to that of the U.S. and we see the lines in the graph diverge. Real per capita personal income in Orleans Parish rises from 95% of the U.S. average in 1965 to 100% of the U.S. average in 1977 and reaches 114% of the U.S. average in 2003. I B. The N0 PSI System Energy Sales Forecast The growth' rate of Total Energy Sales for M0 PSI is fore-casted to fall from the d.5% experienced from 1967-1977 to 1.8% Am. No. 2, (10/80)

48 from 1979-2003. As can be seen in Figure fiOPS, Industrial and Comercial Energy Sales flatten out in the forecast at an average growth rate of 1.2% for both. Their growth rates between 1967-1977 were 3.3% and 5.6% respectively. FIGURE NOP5 FIGURE N0P6 NEW ORLEANS PUDLIC . SERVICE INC- NEW ORLEANS PUBLIC SERVICE INC. ENERGY SALES AVERAGE ANNUAL KWH USE Dillions of Kilowalt Hours per Residential Customer KWH 7' TOTAL g, REsIDENilAL c.

         /

is.ooq g*f*" - & INDUs T RI AL 13,000,

                                                 ,,n t-sow.                  . a.]
                                                                  .lA '.* '2 [.

COMMERCIAL . [, , > e. soon d , 1' t L[:7

r, <

swo. ,

                                                                                   ,     .;         yp ras riro isrs    rho esos   mo 6n rooo s2*iio         $$              '
                                                                                                  $?Y This decline in Industrial and Commer cial sales increases the importance of Residential Energy Sales which will account for 43% of N0 PSI's Total Energy Sales by 2003 as compared to its current share of 35%. Figure N0P6 shows the average annual growth rate of the residential usage per customer slowing from 4.7% from 1965-1977 to 1.9% in the forecast, and Figure N0P7 shows an increase in the growth rate of residential customers from 0.3% per year, 1965-1977 to 0.8% in the forecast. This increase in the growth of customers desoite a declining popula-tion occurs for two (2) reasons. The first reason is that the proportion of adults in the population is rising. Adults comprised 59% of the U.S. population and 62% of the Orleans Parish population in the 1970 Census data. By the year 2000, the Bureau of the Census Population Projection (Series II),

O l Am. No. 2, (10/80) l

49 FIGURE NOP7 /

,,}                                                  NEW ORLEANS                             PUBLIC SERVICE INC.

kd which is used in DRI's forecast, RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS SERVED coi yea, end) shows adults comprising 68% of the MILLloNS U.S. population and our forecast shows adults comprising 67% of the Orleans Parish population. The second reason is that these adults will have higher real per capita personal incomes, enabling more young adults to set up their own homes and more older adults to .r. maintain the homes they already *' have.

                                              .24
                                              .23 204
                                              .t l
                                                                                                                          .19 8
                                                                                                                 .                   .e
                                              *,,                                                                           ,O
                                                                                                    .10 3           7                ,.,

p' yr. $ ' k h

                                              .ns x            -         +                ;,

[ . 9 4 et

                                                                                                                                     }
                                              .i3                    .:          m           w           :        %         A         r y

ai e

                                                                                              ;          t 1          -

3. 5 ,

5 .- _, i _1: _ t%S 19 FO rJTS 080 SOS 090 tyJ3 2000

/m The N0 PSI System Peak load Forecast

[V T C. The increasing share of Residen- FIGURE NOP8 tial Energy Sales and declining NEW oRLE share of Industrial Energy Sales P K DEh ND results in a decreasing load uw factor for N0 PSI as the peak, shown in Figure N0P8, grows at an average rate of 2.2% per year while Total Energy Sales grows (* 1.8% per year. b isw . ism . iy iam . tos 130 o . l , 12M . 'N  ; a,, a 1 gloo . . 7 sooo. '; I g ,  ; . (f eoo *y y J ' 7oo, f Y [ ,1 e c 7,i a , e ' .;

                                                                                                                                                .l
                                                                 ~

Sm. ,f ,

                                                                           ;
                                                     <w         !                        Y          ;           i          .                    V.

t .,

                                                                                                                            +

t' j h {. :

   )                                                 ==                   '.                           -
                                                                                                                                                  .1 j                                                    ioo,         '

1, D6$ r370 f)T$ F>a0 0 33 FDO 1%3 2003 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

50 XI. METHODOLOGY This section presents a brief overview of the major methodological techniques emoloyed in the construction of the Middle South Utilities Load Forecasting Model. A detailed description of the economic theory underlying the behavioral eouations can bm found in the Methodology section while the individual er,uations and their regressions can be found in each Operating Company's booklet. A. The Service Area Economic Model Figure Ml, below, presents a schematic diagram of the structure of the Service Area Economic Models with the arrows representing the flow of the relationships. Historical data are used to estab-lish the particular relationships and forecasts are made utilizing those relationships. As can be seen from the single arrow between the U.S. Economy and the Service Area Model (SAM), it is assumed that while changes in the U.S. Economy will have significant effects on each SAM, the detailed changes in the local economies will not significantly affect the U.S. Economy. This assumption was made for two (2) reasons:

1) The individual service area economies are so small relative to the U.S. that their effects on the U.S. Economy are negligible when compared to the changes induced by national and international factors which determine the direction taken by the U.S. Economy.

2) Ignoring these feedbacks greatly simplifies the analytical task, resulting in considerable savings of time and money without sacrificing much of the quality of the forecasts produced.

Inside the SAM, the interactions are much more important and taking them into account results in a simultaneous model. An examole of this i'nterdependence might begin with an increase in the production of chemicals in a service area, which results in new employees being hired. This " tightens" the labor market in the service area causing wages to rise. Higher employments and wages raise incomes and part of the increase is spent in local department stores, which causes the department stores to seek additional employees. These increases in emalcyment opportunities induce peoole to move into the service area, at which time they start spending their incomes in local stores and the cycle starts over with an increased demand for employees by the department store. While this example proceeded in a chronological order, the " multi-plier effect", by which an initial increase in employments creates more jobs, may proceed along any number of chronolcgical paths in reaching a ncw equilibrium. For this reason, the employment equations make use of a " distributed lag" formulation which specifies that current erployments are a function of past employment levels O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

51 FIGURE M1 U.S. ECONOMY V S p - _ _ _ _ _ _ERV_ ICE _ARE_A E _CONO_MY _ _ _ _ _ _ y I I I I I I EfiPLOYliENTS i l I l 1 l

                                                   ^       K                                              i l

l i l wActs and l oExocaAPsIcs i PRICES l l 1 1 I l l l l V I HOUSING (AP&L ONLY) I I l l l l l l l 1 v l INCOMES I i i I w___ __._________ Am. No. 2, (10/80)

52 (with the importance of the past levels diminishing geometrically into the past) as well as the current values of wages, prices, population, etc. This formulation allows us to capture the par-ticular behavioral characteristics of each Service Area and its relation to the U.S. Economy. The Employments Sector of the SAM produces forecasts of (1) manufacturing employments in each of several Standard Industrial Classifications and (2) non-manufacturing employments in each major category (e.g. , Services or Trade). The degree of detail is nrimarily dependent on legal restrictions on the disclosure of employment data by the state agencies. This detail allows analysis of each Service Area's sources of economic growth. The Wages and Prices Sector of the SAM forecasts (1) average hourly earnings in manufacturing for the state in which the Service Area lies, (2) consumer price index for the southern region of the U.S., (3) state corporate income tax rates, and (4) price of electricity to large industrial users relative to the U.S. average electricity price to large industrial users. The Incomes Sector in all SAfi's except AP&L's forecast total personal income. Since historical data availability allows additional detail, AP&L's SAM forecasts personal income by source. The Demographics Sector forecasts (1) births, (2) deaths and (3) net migration into the Service Area in order to calculate the total population. The total population is used in cohort survival equations which forecast the number rf residents aged 21 years and over, 21 to 64 years and 65 years and over. Because of additional data availability for AP&L's Service Area (the State of Arkansas) on the number of housing starts, AP&L's model contains a Housing Sector which uses cooulation, age break-downs and incomes to forecast the number of new houses constructed in the Service Area. B. The Energy Sales Model The data and forecasts from the U.S. Macroeconomic Model and the Service Area Economic Models are used in developing the individual Operating Companies' Energy Sales Models, whose major sectors and interconnections are depicted in Figure t12. l l The Customers Sector of the Energy Sales Models uses data on Total Residential Customers and All-Electric Residential Customers to establish' relationships by which Total Residential Customers can be forecasted using the adult nopulation of the Service Area and real per capita income in the Service Area. All-Electric Residential Customers are modeled as having made their decision on the basis of the real per ca9ita income, the residential price of electricity relative to alternative fuels and the avail-Am. No. 2. (10/80)

! 53 FIGURE M2 O U.S. ECONOMY V SEP,VICE . AREA ECONOMIC MODEl. If ENERGY SALES MODEL l l I I USAGE PER APPLIANCE I 4 ( Ql CUSTOMERS l CUST0fiER SATURATIONS g I I i l l I I I

l RESIDENTIAL l I j i I I l I

                                                                                                      ;

I I I COMMERCIAL I'!DUSTRI AL l

;       I I

l l I I l v v v I llH0LESALE OTHER l I I I I t._____________.________.____a Am. No. 2, (10/80) _ _ - . .

54 ability of those alternative fuels. Consideration is given as to whether new customers may choose a have all-electric service or existing customers may choose to convert to all-electric service. The Appliance Saturation Sector uses data obtained frcm the Operating Companies' appliance saturation surveys, 1970 U.S. Census data for the Service Areas, real wealth, real price of appliances, the total number of customers and the number of all-electric customers to forecast the saturations of electric Refrigerators, Freezers, Air Conditioners (both Central and Window), Ranges, Water Heaters, Automatic Mashers, Dryers, Dish-washers and Heating. The appliance saturations are used along with average annual KWH consumptions of each appliance, real residential electricity prices, real per capita incomes, weather conditions and, where a statistical significance existed, a variable representing non-price conservation to produce a forecast of the average usage per residential customer in the Usage per Customer Sector of the Energy Sales Model. The Residential Sector provides a forecast of Total Residential Energy Sales by multiplying the average usage per residential customer by the number of residential custoners. The Industrial (Manufacturing) Sector is designed to produce KWH sales to manufacturing firms in the following industries as I defined by the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC): Food and Kindred Products, Tobacco Manufactures, Textile Mill Products, Apparel and Other Finished Products, Lumber and Wood Products, Furniture and Fixtures, Paper and Allied Products, Printing, Publishing and Allied Products, Chemicals, Petroleum Refining, Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastics, Leather and Leather Products, Stone, Clay and Concrete Products, Primary Metals, Fabricated Metals, Machinery, Except Electrical, Electrical and Electronic Machinery, Transportation Equipment, Measuring, Analyzing and Control Instruments and Miscellaneous. In many cases, however, such detailed forecasts are impossible due to the restrictions in obtaining encloyment data as discussed in the Service Area Economic Model above. In these cases, the combinations of indus-tries necessary are made on the basis of similarities in the pattern of electricity usaae in the industries. For example, if employment data cannot be disclosed on Primary Metals firms separate from Fabricated Metals firms, we request data on these two (2) industries combined and forecast energy sales to Primary and Fabricated Metals firms. l The model specifies KWH sales to an industry as being deoendent on the amount of output that industry produces, the price of elec-tricity relative to other inputs (e.g. , labor, natural gas, etc.), O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

55 h) U the real marginal electricity price and, where necessary, variables reflecting technological change. The quantity of output produced i by manufacturers in the service area is not available, so we use the level of output per employee in that industry nationally multiplied by the number of employees in that industry locally as l 1 a proxy for the local output in that industry. . The assumotion is j that the output per employee locally is representative of the out- { put per employee nationally and that the productivity locally grows l l at the same rate as that of the nation. l The modeling of Comercial (Non-Manufacturingi KWH Sales i

presented a greater oroblem than did Industrial KWH because of a l l general lack of information on the many types of loads served and  ;

their behavior with respect to energy usage. As a result, it was decided to exploit the relationship between the level of energy 3 usage and the number of employees in non-manufacturing firms. An j increase in the number of firms or their size will usually result l in an increase in both energy usage and employments, consequently

we can use the level of employments as a predictor of electricity usage. Additional predictors used were the real marginal price , of electricity, the price of electricity relative to other inputs ! (fuels or labor) and weather conditions. Where possible, analysis

of each of the following classes of non-manufacturing employments i

was undertaken: Wholesale and Retail Trade, Services, Construction, i Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, Comunications, Transportation e and Public Utilities, Government and Mining. ! The Wholesale Sector describes KWH Sales for Resale in which j separate equations are used to forecast KWH sales to municipal i utilities and KWH sales to cooperatives. Because we do not have detailed accounts of the ultimate customers served by our whcle-

,            sale customers, we use the Operating Comoany's KWH sales to

residential and commercial cintwrs as predictors of wholesale

     .       KWH sales, i

The Other Sector includes miscellaneous equations such as KWH sales for streetlighting which were developed because of the peculiar nature of the types of sales :qvolved. It also includes forecasts which are not modeled either because of the contractual nature of the sales or because the Operating Company involved requested that the sales be excluded from the Load Forecasting Model. Le AP&L Model does not include KWH Sales to Reynolds i Metals Company, to the City of Jonesboro, or to the Arkansas Electric Cooperative Corporation. The LP&L liodel does not include i KWH Sales to Kaiser Aluminum & Chemical Corporation. The N0 PSI Model does not incude sales to Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. or to the titchoud Assembly Facility of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. C. The Peak Demand Model As shown in Figure A (page 7), the principEl inputs to the 1 4 Am. No. 2, (10/80) '

56 peak demand forecasts are the individual sector forecasts from the energy models. The peak demand models produce summer peak loads by summing the contribution made by the customer classes modeled by the energy models. Load Research is combined with the peak model development by way of the load shapes of the individual sectors. The peak models forecast the maximum demand for a " dominant hour" which is defined as the hour in which the greatest percent-age of the seasonal peak demands have historically occurred. This " dominant hour" for the summer period occurs at 4 p.m. for AP&L, LP&L, MP&L and N0 PSI and at 3 p.m. for ARKMO. The model development for the historical period consists of extracting weekly " dominant hour" peaks for the sunner season, June 1st through mid-September, for each year between 1965 and 1977. Some 200 observations of weekly peak demands along with asso-ciated weather conditions are used in the model construct. The predictors of the selected " dominant hours" peaks are the individual sector energies and their characteristic load shapes. That is, the peak demand is added or built up from the sectors produced from the energy models. The residential sector allows for a separation between a base and a weather sensitive component by way of the major end-uses. The base component is the kilowatt-hour sales associated with the use of non-air-conditioning and non-heating appliances. This base component is constant within a month, varying across the months due to a growth in the base appliance stock. The weather sensitive component associated with air-conditioning and heating, represents a significant portion of the residential load and one that is highly sensitive to hourly weather patterns. The weather sensitive component differs from week to week due to changing weather conditions and from month to month die to the growth in the stock of weather sensitive appliances. Like the residential sector, the commercial sector was split into a base and weather sensitive component. Likewise, the base and weather sensitive components were derived for the municipal and cooperative sectors separately and then were combined with the companies' residential and commercial sectors to provide an aggreate for these consumption classes. The analysis of the industrial sector which represents the most stable of all user classes and the least sensitive to weather conditions utilized a " weighting scheme" by analyzing load shapes and determining each's contribution at the " dominant hour" relative to the average hour's load over a twenty-four hour period. O 1 Am. No. 1, (10/80) l

! l 1 L i I l l  : { TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE l !  ; RESIDENTIAL SECTOR 1 l INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 18 l I l COMMERCIAL SECTOR l 30 l

l. l WHOLESALE SECTOR 38 STREETLIGHTING SECTOR 44 PEAK DEMAND SECTOR 53 ECONOMIC SECTOR 75  !

                                                                                                                                                                  ?

l I l I l O I II Am. No. 2, (10/80) )

lO j i THE SPECIFICATION 0F THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR OF THE MIDDLE SOUTH FORECASTING MODEL O i i Am No. 2, (10/80)

i , I, i t I l TABLE OF CONTENTS f ,. PAGE I a INTRODUCTION 3 l\ r i I. CUSTOMER CONSUMPTION 3  ;

A. Utilization of the Existing Stock of t j Electricity - Consuming Appliances 6

! 8. The Accumulation of Electricity - Consuming ! Appliance 8 f C. The Per Customer KWH Consumption 10 t

                                                                                                                                                                                                         ~

II. CUSTOMER GROWTH 11 i A. Total Customers 11 ( 4 j B. Electrically Heated Homes 13  ! i I APPENDIX A: The Logit Model 16 , '@  ; t i i  ! ! l i i i i

                                                                                                                                                                                                         ;

I i I i f i 2 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

INTRODUCTION

   \

This is the final specification of the residential sector of the Middle South Forecasting model. The methodology presented here was applied to each of the five operating companies separately from which a system's forecast was made. The analysis of residential consumption for each operating company had two distinct parts. First, the consumption for a typical customer was investigated. When the effects of the factors which lead to his con-sumption were determined, the typical pattern of his future consumption wu forecast using projected values of these factors. Second, the growth in the number of customers was forecast. By multiplying the projected customer consumption by the projected number of customers, the total consumption for an operating company was determined. The detailed speci-fication below follows this general outline - the determinant", of customer i consumption followed by determinants of customer growth. O I. CUSTOMER CONSUMPTION The use of electricity does not, of itself, yield benefit, or utility to the consumer. Rather, it serves as one input into a process which includes the stock of electrically-powered appliances1at the consumer's disposal. This can be distinguished from ordinary consumer expenditures on goods such as food from which benefit is derived directly. This points up one characteristic of the consumption of electricity. In any brief time period, the use of electricity is constrained by the current stock of electricity-consuming appliances. Over a longer period, the consumption of electricity depends on the rate of accumulation of these stocks. That is, the usage of a given stock depends on certain factors-weather, income, price - while the stock itself depends on other factors, sometimes not distinct - wealth, durable prices, availability of alternative energies. '>\O]

 +   1. We use the word " appliances" rather loosely here. Included are all electricty-consuming household goods, ranging from refrig-erators to light bulbs.

3

                                                                         #"* " *

• Gol80)

1 l l l 1 1 To arrive at an estimable equation for KWH usage per customer., we began with the following mathematical relationship: n

1) KWH@C t =Iujt(Kit / CUTt )

i=j Where: KWH@C t

                     = KWH sales per customer in period t.

u jt = KWH use of appliance i in period t. K jt

                   = Stock of appliance i in period t.

CUT t

                   = Number of customers in period t.

In words, the KWH sales per customer in a given time period is the sum of KWH's used by any given appliance (ujt) times the average numJer of such appliances held by a typical customer (the number of such appliances held in the service area by customers divided by the number of customers). Approaching our estimable equation, we noted a few relationships and made some simplifying assumptions. The expression K4t/ CUTt , the number of appliance i per customer, was approximated by the rate of saturation of appliance i. It underestimates K jt / CUT t t the degree that a given appliance occurs more than once per customer-household. Nevertheless, we assumed,

2) S jt

                      =K  jt / CUT t   Where S jt is the saturation of ap-pliance i in period t Second, for appliances, other than weather-sensitive appliances, we attempted to measure average responses to income, prices and other factors.

L'e modeled separately air-conditioning response to cooling degree days and heating response to heating degree days. This simplification can be written, algebraicly i 4 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

  -._. - _ - - . - - -_ - - - - = . _ - - - - - - - _ . - - -                                                                              . . . . . . . - - .                                 _ _ - . _ - . .

i l n l

3) Eu jt =a 4- G g t.

t i=1 l 1 i t l where: i 1 ! a = proportional response of usage to changes in economic t

factors [

G = typical use of appliance i in period t jt l Ogt, while abstracting away from weather, income, price and other factors, I varies with time due to technological changes affecting usage levels. i i f Using equations (2) and (3), we were allowed to rewrite equation (1):2

I n

4) KWH@C t

                                                                                             =a t
                                                                                                     *(    .]

G 1t *S1t) l l j . . [ ! 2. The derivation of equation (1): recall,

i ! n { KWH@C = u i t.

• IK it

                                                                                                                       / CUTt) a i

t {i=l substituting from (2) yields: i n ! KWH@C t

                                                                                             =   I     u jt     *S gt i=1

from (3)

!  ; i n KWH9C t

                                                                                             =a t   *(      _]

G it *S1t) } l i l

I- 5 i i ( Am. No. 2, (10/80)

c. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ - . __. .-.-. - - - ... . .-._ . -- -..--. . - . . _ _ . - , . . _ - . - . - ,

In words, we converted the problem of estimating the KWH usage per cus-tomer into the framework described in our discussion of the long-run and short-run. KWH consumption in each period is a product of the usage rate ( t) arid per customer stock of appliances, weighted by relative KWH utilization: N (E O jt

• Sit}

i=1 This latter sum expresses the typical customer's overall stock of ap-pliances per customer by weighting the actual stocks per customer by relative KWH usage. Our discussion now proceeds along two paths. Firstly, we specify the determinants of Ot, the rate of KWH usage, applying what we have called short-run considerations. And, secondly, we consider the determinants of: N b

=1 it it' applying the long-run considerations. We subsequently, return to a synthesis of the two discussion with a description of the estimating procedure.

A. a-UTILIZATIO4 0F THE EXISTING STOCK OF ELECTRICITY-CONSUMING APPLIANCES. The rate of utilization of the existing stock was hypothesized to be a function of weather in the service area, the per capita income in the area, the price of electricity, and " conservation" efforts. Weather conditions obviously determine the level of heati,9 and cooling appliance usage. To a lesser degree they also impact on usage by refrigerators or ranges. We used heating (cooling) degree days to quantify the effects of weather conditions. Given that the effect of weather affects a subset of all appliances, each of the weather variables were weighted by saturation levei of the most weather-sensitive appliances. In this way, our specification allowed for the increasing influence of weather as the saturation of weather-sensitive appliances grew. Am. No. 2, (10/80) 6

  ,S      The average customer in a service area should utilize more of a given stock of appliances as he is better able to afford the use of the stock's services. We proxy his economic condition by the per capita income in the area. The level of usage and per capita income were expected to be and were found to be positively related.

The real price of electricity was calculated from the rate scheduler of each operating company. The real price was a nominal price divided by the consumer price index for the southern U.S. Economic theory tells us that the price consumers use when making purchasing decisione is . the marginal price, or the price for the last unit they buy, For this reason, we used only the cost per KWH in the last rate block electricity-consumers bought. Since customers were in different final blocks, a typical marginal price term was used, reflecting the block where the typical customer was most often found historically. Finally, a proxy for conservation efforts was included. For a given level of the other variables, the urge to conserve, caused by peer pres-sure or advertising, led to lower usage levels. We summarize the discussion of utilization by the general functional expression:

5) a = a(WHDD , WCDDt , RYPOR t

                                                     , RPEt , CONSt . . .)

t t Where: at = KWH usage rates of all N appliances in period t (as defined previously). U( ) = The general function form. WHDD t

                                = Weighted number of heating degree days in period t; WHDDt
                                           = saturation of electrically heated a                                 homes times unweighted heating degree days.

O 1 V l Am. No. 2, (10/80) L a

WCDD t

                          = Weighted CDD (Cooling Degree Days) in period t, WCDD = saturation of air conditioning units times CDDt .

RYP@P t

                            =Real disposable income per capita, period t.

RPE t

                        = Real electricity orice per KWH, period t.

CONS = Conservation proxy t Shere exp (.) is the base of the natural logarithmic system to the power in brackets. B. E6*S-THE ACCUMULATION OF ELECTRICITY-CONSUMING APPLIANCES The long run accumulation was specified by the overall saturation rate of electricity-consuming appliances. ihe saturation rate of each appli-ance was weighted by the annual KWH usage.4 The second step in forecasting the KWH equivalent stock of appliances to mcdel the saturation rates for the N appliances. Since no data was available for many smaller appliances, only major appliance saturations were modeled with the behavior of omitted appliances inferred from those analyzed. The data for the major appliances came from surveys by the operating companies and studies done by the Bureau of the Census in the mid-south area. The appliances modeled were:

3. When the actual estimation was performed the deviations of WHDD and WCDD from their normal values were used. This was becauset theseasbnaladjustmentofthedatabeforeestimationremoved the general, recurring, effects of weather. Our weather variables captured the changes in weather which were not normal.

4. The weighting scheme merges all the appliances into one aggregate stock. It is as if we wanted to add apples and grapes. We could call it fruit, but a single grape is hardly equivalent to an apple.

So we convert each to ounces of fruit to form an aggregate. O 8 l Am. No. 2, (10/80)

                          .          REFRIGERATORS
                          .          FREEZERS
                          .          AIR CONDITIONERS (Window and Central)
                           .          RANGES
                           .          WATER HEATERS
                           .          WASHERS
                           .          DRYERS DISHWASHERS

] . The saturation of appliance i was hypothesized to be a function of house-hold wealth, the real price of appliances, and the rate of growth in customer stock. Household wealth, reflecting the household's ability to buy appliances, was proxied by an average of current and past per capita disposable income. The real price of appliances was a price index of appliances

  \      deflated by the consumer price index for the Southern U.S.

The last variable we used was the growth in the customer stock. This variable entered positively since new customers tend to have more ap-pliances than older ones.

                              = S(RW@Pt ,RPAPL4t, CUT t ,m  .)

~

6) SAPL 4t Where: SAPL jt = Saturation rate of appliance i in period t.

S(.) = The general functional form. RW@P t

                                             = Real wealth per capita, period t.

RPAPL t

                                             = Real price index for appliances, period t.

CUT = Customer stock period t. t i Because room air conditioners are appliances for which the rate of sat-uration grossly underestimates the average stock per customer, a further adjustment correcting for the average number per household was performed. .g 9 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

The explicit functional form used for the saturation estimation is much less intuitive than the form for a .t The explanatio'n of the form is discussed in appendix A. C. THE PER CUSTOMER KWH CONSUMPTION Recall our specification for KWH@C t in equation (l') n KWH@C = a t * (I U i=1 n *S$t) y The variable: I 6 4t

                             *S
                                $t was formed using the techniques discussed in (B) above. Since all N appliances were not includt in the estimation in that section, we as-sumed that the omitted appliances did not affect the weighted appliance stock. That is:

N N K I 0

            $t *S
                  $t
                       =K I 5 $t          *S
                                             $t Where K = number of included appliances.

1=1 i=1 N We express this aggregate stock as St (= I U

• Sit). Using

                                                           $t equation (5) yields:                                 I"I
                       =                                                        9       h

7) KWH@C t

A*RYP@P t b*RPE c* CONSexp(WHDD d I + WCDDt)*St t t t A The new parameter 'h' is introduced as the coefficient of St (the es-timated appliance stock. The theory suggests h to be identically equal to 1, so by allowing it to be estimated freely, the strength of speri-fication was tested. If the null hypothesis (h=1) was rejected, we must conclude that the long-short run dictomy is incorrect or the con-struction of the saturation rate has shortcomings. By taking natural logrithms of the left-and right-hand sides of our equation, a linear regression was performed. Thus, the estimated form was:

8) LOG (KWH@C ) = a + b* LOG (RYP@P t t ) + c* LOG (RPEt

                                                                         )
                                 + d* LOG (CONS   t ) + f*WHDDt + g*WCDDt
                                 + h* LOG (St )

O 10 Am, No. 2, (10/80)

II. CUSTOMER GROWTH V The growth in customer stock is essentially dictated by the growth in residential units in the service area. Consequently, those causal fac-tors typically ascribed to the formation of household units were used to model customer growth. The specification represents an applica-tion of a stock-adjustment model. That is, underlying factors deter-mine an equilibrium of customer stock which is adjusted to at a rate determined by short-run factors. The second step in modeling customer growth was to specify the determinants of electrically heated share of the total. A. TOTAL CUSTOMERS The equilibrium stock was posited to be a function of the per capita realth in the service area and the household-aged population of the area. The equilibrium stock is .that stock of households where, given e current determining factors, there is no incentive for the number of households to increase or decrease. The equilibrium stock seldom equals actual stock because the factors affecting equilibrium are changing faster than the stock is able to adjust. The adjustment mechanism will be made explicit later. The first relationships may be expressed generally.

9) CUT * = C(RW@P , NR21& )

T t t Where: CUTt * = Equilibrium customer stock in period t. RW9P = Real wealth per capita, period t. l t l NR21& t

                                = Population, 21 years old and over, period t.

O, t l V 11 Am. No. 2 (10/80)

At the beginning of each period the equilibrium stock determined by wealth and population does not equal the stock of customers which al-ready exists. Adjustment to the equilibrium takes place, but we expect that the adjustment is not completed. Partial adjustment is a result of the increasing costs of moving from one stock to another. For example, to cause a home to be built within the quarter a household desires it will require substantial overtime payments to the builder. Another factor causing only partial adjustment is the time required to finalize mortgage terms between the mortgagor and mortgagee. We hypothesize that the change in customer stuck is a fraction of the difference be-tween the equilibrium stock and the actual stock in existence. That is:

10) GCUT t = A*(CUTt *-(1-d) CUTt ,3)

Where: GCUT t

                            = Gross change in customer stock in period t.

(CUT t - (1-d) CUTt ,3) A = The coefficient of adjustment (the fraction of the desired change actually occuring) CUT

• t

                            = Equilibrium customer stock, as in equation (11).

CUT = Actual customer stock, period t. t d = Rate of stock depreciation (1-d) CUTt ,) is the stock of customers at the beginning of period t. l l l To estimate (10), we had to write the function in (9) explicitly. We  ! said that (9) depended linearly on its independent variables. That is: l

11) CUTt * = b + c*RWAPt+ *NR21& t By substituting for CUTt*from equation (11) into equation (10) we had:

(12) GCUTt= A*b + A*c*RW@Pt + A*f*NR21&t - A*(1-d)* CUTT-1 O 12 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

Equation (12), however, could be estimated. We do not observe GCUTt ;

and it cannot be calculated because d, the rate of depreciation, is 4 unknown. The net change in customer stock, the change from one period l to the next, is observed. In fact, (13) NCUT t = CUT t - CUT t ,j , is found as the difference between the number of customers from one period to the next. NCUTtis related to GCUT tas shown in equation I (14). (14) NCUTt = CUTt - d* CUTt ,j - (1-d)* CUT t,j = GCUTt - d* CUTt ,) i In words, the net change in customer stock equals the gross change less the replacement of depreciated customer stock. I By subtracting d* CUT t-1 from the left and right hand sides of (12) we O have our estimable equation.

(15) NCUTt = A*b + A*c*RWAPt + A*f*NR2164t - (A*(1-d) + d) CUTt ,) B. ELECTRICALLY HEATED HOMES The share of electical-ly heated hcmes is determined by the number of new homes using electric heat and the net number of old homes switching to electric heat. We began the derivation of an estimable form for 1 this relation by noting an algebraic identity. I i (16) CUER t= NDERt + CDERt + CUER t ,j l O d i 13 ~' Am. No. 2, . (10/80) l

Where: CUER t

                    = Customer stock, electrically heated, in period t.

NDER t

                    = New customers, adopting electric heat, period t.

CDER t

                    = Old customers, adopting electric heat, period t.

We hypothesized that the number of both new and old customers adopting electric heat depended on the relative price of electricity to alterna-tive energy prices, non-price rationing characteristics of natural gas, and real per capita income. Each, old and new, however, depends on prices and natural gas availability in different ways since the cost for conversion to electric heat is much higher and, therefore, old cus-tomers are less sensitive to relative price changes. We expressed these relationships in equations (17) and (18). (17) NDER /NCUT = N(PE /PNG , PE /P0 ,ANG ,RYP@P ) t t t t t t t t (18) CDER t / CUT t ,) = C(PEt /PNG t , PEt /P0 t, ANG t, RYP@Pt) Where: NCUT = Change in customer stock in period t. CUT t

                  = Customer stock, in period t.

PE = Price of electricity, period t. t PNG = Price of natural gas, period t. t P0 = Price of oil, period t. t ANG = " Availability" natural gas, period t. t Data was not available on general service customers converting to elec-tric heat. As a result, the estimation was performed keeping in mind the underlying relationships summarized in equations (17) and (18) i.e., we could observe the change in all-electric customers from both sources. This statement is wri.tten mathematically, (19) CUER t - CUERt ,j = NDERt + CDERt For estimptions, the general functional forms in equations (17) and (18) were assumed to be linear, i.e., (20) NDERt/NCUT t = a+b*PEt /PNGt + c*PEt /P0t + d*ANGt

                                 + e*RYP@P t

m Am. No. 2, (10/80)

(21) CDER t / CUT t ,j = f+g*PEt /PNGt + h*PEt /P0t + k*ANGt

                                                                                    + m*RYP9P t

i Substituting from (20) and (21) into (19) gave the estimable form ! of the equation. } (22) CUER t -CUER t ,j = a*NCUTt+b*(PE t /PNG t)*NCUT t+d*ANG t*NCUTt

                                                                                              + e*RYP@P *NCUT t     t l                                                                                              + c*(PE t/P0 )*NCUTt t                + d*ANG t*NCUTt
                                                                                              + e*RYP@P *NCUT l                                                                                                           t     t j                                                                                              + f* CUTt ,j + g*(PE /PNG    t                     )t

• CUTT-1 1 + h*(PEt /P0t)
• CUT t-1 l + k*ANG t* CUTT-1 + m*RYP@Pt
• CUT t ,j l

l I ) l l 3 i i l i i l 15 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

APPENDIX A THE LOGIT MODEL By definition the variable SAPL it must take on a value between 0 and

1. A regression of SAPL on independent variables would not embody this constraint. For some values of the independent variable the forecasted value of SAPL may be greater than 1 or negative. Writing the estimating equation with LOG (SAPL) would not cure the problem since forecasted values may still be greater than 1. Instead the dependent variable was specified as LOG (SAPL/(1-SAPL)) . The range of LOG (SAPL/(1-SAPL))

is uncontained, but conversion back to SAPL forced it to lie between 0 and 1. To see that this is true, take the general expression A) Z = LOG X/(1-X) Z is of the form of the variable we estimated. It was unconstrained, allowed to take values from minus infinity to plus infinity. The solu-tion for X, the variable of interest in the forecasts, as a function of 2 is:I B) X = o,p(Z)/ 1 + exp(Z)

1. The solution for X is found as follows:

Z = LOG X/(1-X) exp(Z) = exp(LOG X/(1-X) ) = X/(1-X) Taking the inverse of both sides 1/exp(z)=(1-X)/X=f-1 so,f=1+1/exp(Z) Finally, l X = 1/(1 + 1/exp(Z)) = exp(Z)/ 1 + exp(Z) 9 16 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

As Z tends to minus infinity, X goes to 0. As Z tends to plus infinity, X goes to 1. All intermediate values of Z cause v

                                                                                               +o lie between 0 and 1. Thus, our theoretical constraint is met.

I j This specification is known as LOGIT. It is the natural logarithm of the " odds" that X will occur. In our content, it is the LOG of the l 1 odds that a customer will have appliance i. By solving for SAPL, we ' have the forecasted saturation rate of appliance i. i For ease in estimation, the odds for the saturation of appliance i was i hypothesized to be related to the independent variables multiplicatively. That is: C) LOG (SAPL jt (1-SAPLjt))

                               /                       = a + b* LOG (RW@P )t + c* LOG (RPAPLt )

, + d* LOG (NR@ CUT t ) + f* LOG (CUTt ) i

i 4 i 17 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

4 O THE SPECIFICATION OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR OF THE MIDDLE SOUTH FORECASTING MODEL O O lo Am. No. 2, (10/80)

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 PAGE I. INTRODUCTION 20 II. SPECIFICATION 20 A. Model Structure 20  ; i B. Data Development 24 I I i 19 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

I. INTRODUCTION U The operating companies' classification of customers into Industrial or Commercial classes is often not done in the most economically mean-ingful way. A similar, but not identical, split is between manufact-uring and non-manufacturing industries. Since this latter split was more meaningful economically, the data on the service area was avail-able on this split, and the operating companies' data could be aggre-gated to fit this split, models were built on the basis of manufacturing / non-manufacturing, not Industrial / Commercial. The specification which follows is that for manufacturing customers. The specification of the model for non-manufacturing energy is described in the section called Commercial which appears later in this volume. II. SPECIFICATION The manufacturing sector forecasted electric energy sales to each of the major manufacturing groups in each of the operating companies. The classification of groups was done according to standard industrial classification (SIC). The majority of the breakdown was done at the 2-digit level with 3-and 4-digit groupings used for large sector (eg: aluminum). Not all 2-digit breakdowns were modeled separately since the size of some was too small to allow confidence in the estimated parameters. An aggregate approach to these smaller groups was found j to lead to better statistical results and forecasting accuracy. A. MODEL STRUCTURE In developing the manufacturing & mining model, four major factors were considered:

            .      Production Activity i            .      Factor Substitution
            .      Technological Change
            .      Conservation (p) v i

l ;0 Am. No. 2, G0/80)

Electricity is primarily a factor input to production, therefore its use is heavily tied to the levels of production activity. However, the relationship between production and consumption can and will change over time due to factor substitution, technological advances and con-servation ef forts. The model was developed to include each of these aspects and to test their relative impact on sales. In arriving at the estimated form, we began with the basic hypothesis that thua was a proportional relationship between production and con-sumption of electricity, i.e.,

1) MWH

                         $t
                            =

AjXit Where: MWH jt = Megawatt Hour--Sales Industry i, period t. X = Industrial Output--Industry i, period t. 5t Aj = Parameter This relationship is modified through time as we experience changes in the other detenninants, namely, input substitution, technology and conservation efforts. The coefficient A, therefore, is not constant but changes through time as each of these factors change. The major sources of substitution is between alternative energy sources, namely, fuel oil, natu al gas, coal and labor. The substitution was said to be a function of:

1) technological feasibility of substitution

2) availability of alternative fuels

3) relative price of electricity to prices of other fuels and wages.

The first thing considered was the feasibility of substitution, given the production process. In most cases, the industry grouping was ag-gregate enough such that viable alternatives do exist to the group as a whole. However, some understanding of the industrial group and their , major substitution possibilities was developed. l g, Am. No. 2, (10/80)

Secondly, once considered technologically feasible, to what extent was the substitute available in the region? Availability is of two types: Q 1) never available or hardly used in the region of the country and 2) the supply was limited over a portion c' the study period. In the former case, the impact is minimal and can be dropped from further consideration during the estimation.1 However, in the latter case, some account had to be taken for the restricted supply as well as the economics of substitution. For instance, we had to consider the curtailment of natural gas in our estimation to the extent it was a substitute fuel. Finally, given the feasibility and availability, the choice of inputs was assumed to be a function of relative prices. The price term is included in distributed lag form to account for the fact that 1) it takes time for relative price changes to be perceived as permanent and

2) once changes are perceived, substitution takes time to occur.

Technological change was defined to include voluntary advancements as well as government safety and health standards which required additional / less usage p r unit of output produced. The most notable government legislation that has impacted sales growth was the Occupational Safety

   & Health Act (OSHA) and the EPA's Air Pollution Control act. Every effort was made to identify these changes for each of the industrial groups investigated and to quantify them in order to include them in the estimation.

Finally, conservation efforts on the part of industrial users altered the steady relationship between output and consumption. Conservation was considered to arise for two reasons: 1) the result of the oil embargo and resulting energy crisis of late 1973 and 2) the effort to minimize the impact of increasing energy costs. The first was consider either 1.) If the fuel source was considered a viable optign in the fore-cast period, then the final forecast reflected that impact. However, if not part of the historical picture, its full impact on sales could not be measured. v 22 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

to be t.'mporary or permanent depending on the extent of the programs enacted at the time of the crisis and the degree to which they have been maintained. While such efforts were difficult to quantify, an effort was made to obtain information on the major programs undertaken in the different industrial groups. Where explicit information was available on such programs, it was used; otherwise a conservation pattern was depicted over the interval allowing the statistics to measure the impact. The second reason, increased energy costs, was considered by including the real price of electricity. To account for the time span required to effect a significant change in usage, the price of elec-tricity was entered in distributed lag form. Thus, the factor of proportionality, A, in equation (1) was considered to be not constant but rather a function of: 1) input substitution,

2) technologicas change and 3) conservation efforts.

Thus (1) was modified as follows:

2) MWH jt = A(Pjjt, Tit,CONSjt,RPEjt)

• Xit where: O MWH jt = Megawatt Hour - Sales -- industry i - period t X

jt = Industrial Output -- industry i - period t P jit = Relative Price of Electricity to Fuel or Wage j -- industry i - period t T jt = Vector of Technological Changes -- industry 1 - per.iod t CONS jt

                 = Proxy for conservation efforts RPEit = Real price of electricity -- industry 1 - period t We assumed, that the functional form of A was multiplicative, so we rewrote (2):

k jjt d*T c jt

• CONS d $t
• RPE it *X $t

3) MWH jt =a*P An estimable form was derived by taking the natural logarithm of both sides of (3):

g Am. No. 2, (10/80)

4) LOG (MWHjt) = LOG (a) +...b 3

• LOG (Pjit)+...+C
• LOG (Tjt)

                                  + d

• LOG (CONSjt) + f
• LOG (RPEit) + k C/
• LOG (Xjt)

The proportional relationship hypothesized between production and con-sumption suggests that the coefficient on output, k, should be close to one. In fact, k differed from one when estimated for a variety of reasons. The present specification assumed that the fixed level of consumption (i.e. independent of the level of production) was small in proportion to the variable usage. To the extent it was not, a per-centage increase in production will lead to less than 1% percent change in KWH use. Second, in the short run, as present plant capucity becomes fully utilized, the returns to scale diminish in some processes leading to a change in the proportional relationship. Finally, the inability to quantify the variables in A(.) may have caused severe bias in the estimation of k. Every attempt was made to gather as much information as possible that will impact A. One crucial item that was not addressed in this specification is self-

 \ ) generation. To the extent customers generate their own power, a potential bias is created as sales do not reflect the electricity required to generate the estimated output.

8. DATA DEVELOPMENT In this section the development of the explanatory variables is outlined:

, 1) Industrial Output The index of industrial output was developed for manufacturing and mining groups. It was obtained by combining national infor-mation on employee productivity with regional data of the level of manufacturing employment activity. The local production index was constructed as follows: s Am. No. 2, (10/80)

s , JQIND jt X it E

• E iOs t jt where:

                = Index of Industrial Output -- Industry X}t i - Region s JQIND jt = Federal Reserve Board index of Industrial Production
                     -- Industry i - U.S.

E it

                 = Total Employment -- Industry i - U.S.

Ej @st

                 = Total Employment -- Industry 1 - Region s The term JQINDjt/E jt is the average level of production per employee on a national basis, for each of the industrial groups.

We multiplied this ratio, as a proxy of production per employee in the individual industries by the number of employees in the area to arrive at an estimate of area production. The assumption made was that the gains in output per employee in the area could be proxied by those in that industry group on a national basis. Given the level of disaggregation at which estimation was done, this was probably reasonable.

2) Energy Substitution Two concepts had to be quantified here: 1) availability of natural gas and 2) energy and labor costs. The availability of natural gas was not easily quantified. Where availability was an issue a qualitative variable was developed.

Price tenns for both electricity and alternative fuel sources had to be developed. The criterion used in developing all price estimates was that the term should reflect the change in prices that had occurred. In addition, in developing the price tenn for electricity, two criteria were followed: 1) the term was de-rived from the rate schedules, and if possible reflected the fact that customers fall into different blocks of a schedule and therefore face different prices and 2) the term did not change simply because energy consumption levels changed, a problem known as simultaneous bias. Am. N , 2, WM 25

Two possibilities existed for constructing electrcity prices, ( x a) "', pical bill" b) weighted marginal price A) " Typical Bill" The typical bill was constructed in the following steps:

1) define a " typical" or representable level of usage based on KWH consumption and KW demand for a billing period for each rate schedule.

ii) hold the typical usage constant, calculate the cost of this level of use by applying the rates in effect (KWH and KW charges) as well as fuel adjustment and any tax surcharges. g iii) weigh the average of the " typical bills" for the individual rates. The weights were based on the percent of the classes KWH sales that were billed

under each rate.

Thus: N PETB) 1=1=I j ajj

• TB /KWHj where:

PEIB) = " Typical bill" price of electricity (cents perKWH) ajj = Proportion of KWH sales to industry j billed under rate i TB jj = " Typical Bill" - Rate 1 (cents) O G . Am. No. 2, (10/80)

KWHj = " Typical" KWH usage - Rate i (fixed) The typical bill approach avoided the simultaneity problem and was derived from the rate schedules, but it did require an as-sumption of " typical usage". B) Weighted Marginal Price The weighted marginal price was a weighted average of KWH charges, or consumption charges faced by the industrial user. The price term was constructed in the following steps: i) A weighted marginal price for each applicable rate schedule was constructed. Each of the energy block prices was weighted by the proportion of customers whose end usage fell within each block. For example: Rate Schedule - Large Power Service:

            $5,000 for the 1st 1,500 kW or less of load
            $ 2.75 per KW for the next 6,500 KW of load
            $ 2.10 per KW for all additional KW l.35c per KWH for the 1st 360 KWH per KW of load 1.15& per KWH for all addition KWH The weighted marginal pr':e for this rate schedule is WMP p-3 " "1 * ' .35& + a 2

• 1.15C where:

a) = % of customers whose KWH per is between 0-360 a =% f customers whose KWH per KW is 2 greater than 360 0 27 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

      +% =                              ma n        ii)    The weighted marginal price for each industrial group was a second weighting of rate prices developed by the method in (1). This second weighting was based on the proportion of KWH billed in a given industrial group under each of the applicable rates. This second I

weighting took into account the relative importance

of each rate to the industrial groups. Thus

i N,M

                                 ..

• WMP.1

;

WMP 3= j?j alJ J=1 where: WMP3 = weighted marginal price -- industry j ajj = proportion of KWH sales to industry j billed under rate i WMPj = weighted marginal price -- rate i Marginal price was based on KW!! consumption and price per KWH. As such, it did not include the demand charges T incurred under these rate schedules. The omission N implicitly assumed that demand charges do not sig-nificantly affect total consumption but only the dis-tribution of consumption throughout the day. To the extent that this was not true, the exclusion of the demand charge was invalid. Price tenns were included to reflect two phanomena:

1) conservation and 2) fuel substitution. The weighted marginal price, in that it reflects costs on the margin, was included to take into account conservation. For substitution of energy sources the entire cost structure j was considered, by using the " typical bill" relative to alternative fuel costs and 1&bor costs.

1 G 28 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

3) Technological Changes The exact form of variables to reflect technological change de-pended on the information available.

All major structural changes were noted along with their instal-lation date in order to account for shifts in energy during the equation estimations.

4) Conservation As mentioned, conservation of electricity was considered to be of two types. Reaction to increased energy cos'ts was tested by including the real price of electricity. The price was deflated by the wholesale price index for the relevant industrial group.

Conservation for " patriotic" purposes was also considered. A qualitative variable was constructed to depict a reasonable con-servation pattern. O Am. N . , 0/80) 29

l 1

                                                                                                              )

l THE SPECIFICATION OF THE COMMERCIAL SECTOR OF THE MIDDLE SOUTH FORECASTING MODEL i l I l 30 Am. No. 2, (10/80) i_ _ __ - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ . _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ ' ' ' ~ ' -%_% , _

} l TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE l I. INTRODUCTION 32 II. MODEL STRUCTURE 32 III. SPECIFICATION OF THE ESTIMABLE FORM 35 4 O O 8 31 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

i Q I. Introduction The Commercial sector presented a difficult forecasting problem. The sector has shown substantial growth over the historical period both in employments and in energy. As a result, relating energy to employment effectively explains a great deal of the variation in energy. On the other hand, the causal between employment and energy is complex. The growth of air conditioning and electric heat and the growth of square footage of commercial establishments are also known to be important determinants in the growth of the sector's energy. The problem arises from the paucity of data for these significant causes. Thus it is possible to show good summary statistics, R-squares and so on, in the estimation of the sector while little understanding of the behavioral charac-teristics of the sector are formed. In making our forecasts, we were careful to appreciate the historical (j relationship between energy and employments might not persist in the forecast period if the factors which we were unable to quantify changed radically. II. Model Structure Consumption in the commercial /non-manufacturing sector was analyzed within, at most, seven inajor classes:

1) Wholesale and Retail Trade

2) Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate l 3) Personal Services

4) Construction

5) Communications, Transportation, and Public Utilities

6) Government

                                                                                 .   .  , 00/80) 32

7) Mining The number of classes considered were reduced, when (1) the energy data from an operating company was not at the same detail, or (2) the employ-ment data for a class was not available. Estimating at the highest level of feasible detail was useful since the model was better able to analyze the particular growth patterns of each class.

In general, energy consumption of the commercial sector is dependent on:

1) growth of the sector of employments

2) consumption per employee - in particular, responses caused by:

a. the saturations of heating and cooling equipment

b. voluntary conservation effort

c. the price of electricity

d. weather

e. technology

f. establishment size The growth of each class within the sector was proxied by the growth in the number of employees in the class. Using employees, rather than the number of establishments or commercial customers, measures the growth in the number, as well as growth in the size, of commercial establishments.

The growth of employment in each class was not estimated within the commercial block of the model since it was already considered within the service area economic models. We specified that consumption per employee depended on a number of factors. For some factors, it was a relatively easy task to identify variables which represented the history of the factors, For other factors, no time series were available. We began with the factors which could be easily modeled. 33 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

The price of electricity was modeled in much the same way as the price ('] V had been modeled in previous sectors. The price of electricity relative to the prices of alternative fuels and wages was included to capture the choice of technology. The less expensive electricity becomes rela-tive to other fuels, and labor, the greater the propensity for commercial . establishments to choose electricity-based technology for heating, cooling, and other energy-consuming loads. The price of electricity used for this purpose is the typical price as described in the Industrial Speci-fication. It included KW, as well as KWH charges. Similarly, the real price of electricity was included to account for effects resulting from the increased or decreased cost of using electricity, the cost per kilo-watt-hour in the last block of consumption, deflated by the consumer price index for the the southern United States. The deflation was per-formed to correct for overall inflation in the sector and the economy. A dummy variable was introduced to account for the voluntary, non-price related, conservation efforts which occurred in 1973 and 1974, in response to the oil embargo. The variable's impact was seen not to persist into (,,/ the forecast. Cooling-degree days and heating-degree days were included to reflect the impact of weather on commercial energy consumption. The effect of weather on energy will increase as the saturation of electricity-consuming heating and cooling equipment increases. However, time series were not available for the saturations of this equipment. Thus the weather variables were included without any modification. We were im-plicitly assuming that the saturations have been constant over the period of historical analysis. While this assumption may be appropriate for air-conditioning since the greatest penetration of air-conditionir.g occurred in the early 60's, it is not true for the saturations of elec-tric-heating equipment. Since the growth of electric heating will increase with shortfalls in natural gas production, the assumption of constancy is a serious shortcoming of the specification as it now exists. Effort ought to be made in the future to measure the changes in commercial

        - customers having electric heat load.

(3 f w/

      )

34 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

Technology affects electricity consumption in two ways. First, there are technological innovations which perform energy-consuming tasks more efficiently. These types of technology will reduce the consumption of electricity. Second, there are innovations which reduce the need for employees to perform the activities of the sector. These will, generally, increase the consumption of electricity per employee. The first type of technology was modeled by discerning important historical innovations which occurred and modeling them with qualitative, or dummy variables. The second type of technology might have been modeled by qualitative variables. However, since the impact of labor-saving tech-nology could not be readily quantified, the coefficient on the number of employees was estimated without constraints. An elasticity of more than one on employment is interpreted as increased load from labor-saving, electricity-consuming equipment. The saturation, or stock, of electricity-consuming equipment in the sector was not available. The hope was that the relative cost of elec-tricity to other fuels wo'ild proxy the growth in the accumulation of these stocks. III. Specification of the Estimable Form The consumption of electricity in the commercial /non-manufacturing sector was specified to be in multiplicative form, infact,

1) MWH j = A*(TPEL/P y ) bl * (TPEL/P2)b2 * . . . * (TPEL/ AHEM)bn

• d l *(MPEL/CPIS)c CON
• TECH"
• exp [f*DNCDD3
• exp [g*DNHDD3
• E O

35 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

i where: MWH j = megawatt-hours, commercial class i TPEL = typical price of electricity P = price of fuel j 3 AHEM = average hourly earnings li MPEL = marginal price of electricity i l CPIS = consumer price index, Southern region I l CON = dummy for embargo induced voluntary conservation

I l TECH = technology

DNCDD = difference from normal, cooling-degree days  ;

DNHDD = difference from normal, neating-degree days E j = employees commercial class i 4 j NOTE: exp ( . ) = e (.), i.e. the base of natural logarithms I to the power implied by the expression in parenthesis ll NOTE: The general " TECH" was replaced by the growth rate of employment data. Am. No. 2, (10/80)

l The actual estimation was performed linearly. Equation (1) was con-verted to linear form by taking the natural logarithm of each side.

2) log (MWHj ) = log (A) + by

• log (TPEL/P1 ) + b2 ***

              +b n

• 1 g(TPEL/ AHEM)

              + c

• log (MPEL/CPIS) + d * (CUN)

              +e

• log (TECH) + f
• DNCDD + g
• DNHDD + h
• log (Ej )

O O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

_ . - _ - . . . . - . _ . . . - . - - ~ - _..----, --- a a -~.. -a - _ - _ - _ _ . _ . _ . , ._ __ l ) THE SPECIFICATION OF THE 1 WHOLESALE SECTOR i OF THE MIDDLE SOUTH FORECASTING MODEL l l l l l l i l 1 38 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

  ~ . . . . .     ._- - _..----...-.- -.__--_._-..._ -..                       ____

i i' i . l l . i O l t 1 l l TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                                                                       /

PAGE j i i 40  ! j I. SALES BY THE COOPERATIVES AND MUNICIPALS A. Residential Sales 41  ! B. Comercial and Industrial Sales 42 i II. SALES TO COOPERATIVES AND MUNICIPALS 43 f l l

                                                                                                        ;

l L O l t

! i 1 i i i 1 i

;

1 i a i i. l0 i Am. N . 2, (10/80) 39

Electricity sales to cooperatives and municipals result from their ultimate sales to their customers. In modeling this sector, we sought to capture the behavior of their customers, as it relates to electricity consumption, from which the operating companies' sales could be derived.

I. SALES BY THE COOPERATIVES AND MUNICIPALS l

Optimally, we hoped to model the sales of cooperatives and muni-a cipals as the sales of the operating companies had been modeled.

This was, in fact, impossible. First, there were discrepancies in class definitions. There generally were classes, or combina- l tions of classes, equivalent to the residential class. But, less 4

likely were commercial and industrial classes. Even when they existed they tended to be very different from the manufacturing

         - non-manufacturing dicotomy which is most meaningful economically.

Instead, non-residential customers were classified as large-power and small-power users. The distinction by cooperatives and muni-cipals is made on the basis of KW demand, so that-large-power include both manufacturing and large non-manufacturing like hospitals. Small-power users are closer to commercial, or non-manufacturing, but some small industrial are also included.

;

Second, a more severe shortcoming was data availability. The sales by cooperatives and municipals were often not available or available on an annual basis only. Even when data from co-operatives and municipals were available, time series on casual factors in our models were not. For example, appliance saturations and employment data were not available for cooperatives and municipals. The approach to forecasting the sales of the wholesale sector

began by considering the ideal. But no analysis was done following I

the guidelines set forth for operating company sales. Although this was not possible, as few compromises as necessary were made. This required the modeling effort to be tailored on a case by case basis. The fo! lowing specification fits what was the case closest to the ideal. l 40 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

A. Residential Sales The analysis of residential sales for the operating companies considered three major areas: 1. appliance e turations, 2. energy per customer, and 3. customer growth. For the wholesale sector, the analysis of appliance saturations could not be made; and energy per customer could not be considered in the same level of detail. The causal variables for customers were available and the speci-fication for operating customers was followed. I* Usage per customer - By assuming the municipal and coopera-tive customers are sirrilar to those served by the operating companies, the history of saturation rates, income, prices, and weather was proxied by usage per customer of the operating companies. , That is,

1) MWH@CWS = f(MWH@C) where: MWH@CWS = usage per customer (residential) of cooperatives and municipals MWH@C = usage per customer (residential) of the operating company

2. Customer Growth - For the cooperative and municipal customer growth, the specification for the residential sector was applied.

Therefore,

2) CUT - CUT,1=a + b

• RW@P + c
• NR2164 - d
• CUT,7 9'

41 Am. No. 2, (10/80) 1

where: CUT = customer stock (-1 subscript represents ~. s last periods stock) i' RW@P = per capita wealth of the operating company service area i NR2164 = population 21 to 64 years of age in the operating company service area 1 B. Commercial and Industrial Sales ] The industrial sales for the wholesale sector are relatively in-significant. Most customers who are classified as manufacturing are small and serve a local market. Consequently, they are similar l to commercial, or non-manufacturing, industries in their behavior. I No causal data, or size of firm data, was available on the wholesale level. Under these two constraints - 1. most non-residential energy is similar to the operating companies' commercial sector O and 2. detailed industrial analysis is difficult - non-residential energy for cooperatives and municipals was related directly to

operating company commercial sales.

3) MWHCIWS = f(MWHC) where: MWHCIWS = megawatt hour sales by cooperatives and municipals to non-residential customers l MWHC = megawatt hour sales by operating company to commercial customers ,

pd l 42 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

II. SALES TO COOPERATIVES AND MUNICIPALS Discrepancies between sales by cooperatives and municipals and sales to cooperatives and municipals come from three major sources,

1. energy generated by the cooperatives and municipals, 2. energy purchased from other electric utilities, and 3. losses. The relation-ship between sales by and sales to cooperatives and municipals were cor.sidered on an econometric basis. In making the forecast, in an econometric mode, judgemental decisions had to be made and inputted. The possibilities to consider included:

1. would the cooperatives and municipals continue self-generation following the pattern demonstrated by history.

     ?.      would they continue to buy power needs from vendors in the same historical percentages.

3. would technological innovation or service area changes lead O

to changes in loss factors. Given historical relationships and qualitive assumptions in the forecast, sales to the cooperatives and municipals were made from forecasts of sales by cooperatives and municipals. O 43 Am. No. 2, (4/80)

t l r 1  ; I I i t i F O i r

                                                                                                                       ;

I F i i a i .I 1 E

I 4

t l l i t i 3 1 1 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS l 2 1 4 i l e i t

I I. ENERGY MODEL . . . . . . . .............. .

                                                                                            . Page     3 i

z 4

                                                    . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . .     . Page   117               {

i II. PEAK DEMAND MODEL .i 4

 ,           III. ECONCMIC MODEL .           . . . . .       .....a       . . . . . . . . . . Page   125 1

4 i

                                                                                            . Page   317 l               IV. APPLIANCE SATURATION MODEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 1 I ! l' i i l I l l l l l Am. No. 2, (10/80)

3

                                                                                                           ,,        m     ,q 2

wo w , . ENERCY MODEL INDEX ENDOCENOUS AND RECRESSION RESULTS AND EinCENOUS VARIABLES PLOTS OF FITTFD HISTOR! CAT. FORFCAST VS. ACTt'AL PACE PACE PACE 7 33 74 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CUST0t!ERS . . . . . . . . ... . . . 9 36 76 ALL-ELECTRIC RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS . . .. .. . . 10 37 78 RESIDENTIAL MTCAWATT HOUR USAGE PER CUSTOMER . . . . ttANUFACTt' RING USACE: 0t1 and gas extraction & Petroleum refining and 80 12 40 related industries . . . . . . . . . . Mining and quarrying of nonmetallic minerals, except 82 fuels & Stone. clay, glass, and concrete products . 14 43 16 46 84 Food and kindred products . . . . . . . . Textile mill products & Apparel and other finished 49 26 products made from fabrics and similar materials . 17 Lumber and wood products, except furniture & Furniture and fixtures & Paper and allied 19 52 88 products . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . Printing, publishirg, and allied industries & Measuring analyzing. and controlling instruments; photographic, medical and optical goods; watches and clocks & Hiscellaneous manufacturing industries . . . . 21 55 90 Chemicals and allied products & Rubber and 57 92 miscellaneous plastics products . . . . . . . . 22 Primary metal industries, except Kaiser & Fabricated metal products. except 23 59 94 machinery and transportation equipment . . . . . . Machinery, except electrical & Electrical and electronic machinery, equipment, and supplies & Transportation equipment . . . . . ... 25 62 06

                                 . . . . ... .. . . . . . ..                                     26             64                  98 NON-MANUFACTURING USACE
                                                                       . . . .                   28             67                100 STREETLICHTINC USAGE    . . . . . . . . .. . ..
                                                                          . . . .                29              68               102 COOPERATIVES USAGE     . . . . . . . . . .... .

30 69 104 Mt'NICIPALS, EXCEPT DtERGENCIES USAGE . .. . .. . . .. Forecast by Annual Report Categories ANNUA 1. (1979-2003) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Page 110 MONTHLY (1979-1981) . . . . . . ... . .. . . . . Page 114 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

    ' - _ . . _ .        .--i m           & a ...m    .._. 2._ . __u_.m     m     m m                 ....     .a    __                 .  .mm.__        .__         - - --- .

5 i j l 1 t i i i 1 1 i I l > l l l l l l l I ENERGY MODEL 1 ENDOCENOUS AND EXOGEN 0US VARIABLES HISTORICAL VALUES i I i l I Am, No. 2, (10/80)

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w a LPSL RESIDENTIAL USE PER CUSTOMER SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1960 1964 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 M9CRTSALA 3.45 3.58 4.32 4.73 5.21 5.64 6.23 6.73 7.69 8.40

   %CH                               3.7       20.9         9.3        10.2         8.3        10.4         8.1       14.2           9.3 CFSATLA         7.380.878 7.959.410  8.792.414  9.306.355   9.708.014   10.143.454  10.642.465  11.199.444  11.763.065  12.133.931
   %CH                               7.8       10.5         5.8         4.3         4.5         4.9         5.2         5.0          3.2 RPE                  1.775      1.011      1.794      1.760       1.684        1.596      1.536       1.493       1.417       1.338
   %CH                               2.0       -0.9       -1.9        -4.3         -5.3       -3.7        -3.5        -4.4         -5.6 MPRTLA                1.57       1.62       1.63        1.61        1.57        1.51        1.49       1.49        1.48         1.48
   %CH                               3.1        0.2       -0.7        -3.0         -3.8       -0.8        -0.6        -0.2           0.0 CPISOUTHNS           0.886      0.896      0.906      0.918       0.930       0.944       0.973       1.003       1.047       1.109
   %CH                               1.1        1.2         1.2         1.3         1.6         3.0         3.0         4.4         5.9 RYP9PNEW             1.680      1.723      1.764      1.039       1.928       2.025       2.194       2.376       2.446       2.430
   %CH                               2.6        2.4         4.3         4.8         5.0         8.4         8.3         3.0        -0.6 RYP9 FOLD            1.680      1.723      1.764      1.839       1.928       2.025       2.194       2.376       2.446       2.430
   %CH                               2.6        2.4         4.3         4.8         5.0         8.4         8.3         3.0        -0.6 SAT 3DMLA            0.357      0.405      0.470      0.489       0.486       0.481       0.478       0.474       0.468       0. 4 t,1
   %CH                              13.4       16.3         3.8       -0.6         -0.9       -0.6        -0.8        -1.4         -1.5 SA13CLA              O.156      0.162      0.173      0.190       0.212       0.237       0.263       0.293       0.324       0. 3 U iCH                               4.1        6.7         9.5       11.7         11.7       11.3        11.2        10.6          6.0 L10HCDDNOLA                 -293.111    187.889     98.889    -118.111     -159.111    -171.111     -41.111    -109.111    -10a.111
   %CH                                           NM      -47.4           NM      -34.7        -7.5        76.0      -1C5.4          3.7 L1DNCDOMOLA                 -199.056    194.944    329.944        4.944     258.944     -12.056    -167.056    -279.056     -25.056
   %CH                                           NM       69.3       -98.5     5.137.1           NM   -1.285.7       -67.0         91.0 SATHTLA              O.004      0.005      0.006      0.000       0.010       0.012       0.015       0.018       0.022       0.025
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1 s i 1 i i LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 13 & 29, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) l f t 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 MHI3295ALA 1.310.196 1.424.272 1.520.444 1.553.948 1.534.244 1.686.700 1.939.086

              .%CH                                     28.1                   8.7                 6.8                   2.2               -1.3                      9.9        15.0 j

00!!4D29 1.167 1.219 1.284 1.248 1.240 1.131 1.414 ! TCH 3.1 4.5 5.3 -2.8 -0.7 7.3 G.3 a 0.197 0.203 0.209 i

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.i E29LA 2.673.631 2.959.794 3.001.254 3.218.414 2.658.233 2.637.252 2.927.901 i 6.0 10.7 1.4 7.2 -17.4 -0.8 11.0

                 %CH

! WECLASS29 0.825 0.825 0.825 0.825 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.2 0.0 0.0

                 %CH                                                                                                                                                                                                                  e RwMP1329                             0.376                0.3'30            0.389                   0.319              0.230                    0.217       0.294
                 %CH                                    -4.1                  3.7               -0.2                 -18.0              -27.8                      -5.8        35.3 i                 WPT 1329 L A                         0.433                0.4G3             0.522                   0.659              0.562                    0.576       0.888
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i LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 14 & 32, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) l 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 MH1432 SALA 95.165 63.955 84.778 95.302 105.769 121.965 134.382 143.612

          %CH                                  -34.3               -32.8          32.6                12.4               11.0           15.3       10.2                    6.9 dolNO32                              1.060               1.109         1.208           1.336                 1.331         1.179        1.371               1.461                                      ,

ECH -3.3 4.6 8.9 10.6 -0.3 -11.4 16.2 6.6 i I E32 0.640 0.634 0.659 0.692 0.690 0.614 0.626 0.652

          %CH                                    -2.5                -1.1           4.0                4.9               -0.2        -11.1            2.0                   4.2 E32LA             3.2G3.741                          3.105.200     3.015.671   3.199.762             3.463.549         3.292.234 3.250.725 3.214.907                                                   '
          %CH                                     -2.6               -4.9          -2.9                6.1                8.2           -4.9       -1.3                 -1.1 RE LPNG14 32                         0.030               0.026         0.021            0.017                0.0tG         0.011        0.009               0.0C9
          %CH                                      '0.5            -15.5         -18.1             -21.5                 -4.9        -29 9        -17.4                 -6.1 TYPT1432LA                           0.999               1.016         1.045              1.104              1.242          1.144       1.159               1.474 s          %CH                                         0.5             1.7            2.9               5.G               12.5           -7.8          1.3               27.2 TYPTNGITLA                           32.74               40.21         49 64             66.71               79.85        107.39      122.36               175.98

, %CH 0.0 22.8 23.4 34.4 19.7 34.5 13.9 43.8 INTERSTATE 14 1.630 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0C0

          %CH                                  -35.0               -38.7             0.0               0.0                0.0            0.0          0.0                     0.0 i

JMANS32 0.973 0.758 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 ' i %CH -2.8 -22.1 32.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 STEMP32 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 j %CH 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.s LAUREN32 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.973 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.0 0.0 4 %CH 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.7 2.8 0.0 j y DOW32 1.000 1.000 1.193 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

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51 RECESS 10N32 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500 0.000 0.000

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m LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SIC 20, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1966 1967 1968 1961 1968 1962 1963 1964 1965 1960 77.568 83.771 t! 4 .10 9 60,982 68.542 72,192 74.561 80.756 81.622 82.542 0.4 teH 20 S A L A 8.3 1.1 1.1 -6.0 8.0

  %CH                                   0.9          17.3           3.3 1.025          1.062-0.000          0.833         0.864         0.904         0.924         0.960           1.000 3.6' iJOIND20            0.786                                                                    2.2             3.8           4.2           2.5 2.8           2.8           3.2            3.7           4.6
   %CH 1.777           1.787        1.781          1.791 E20                 1.790         1.775          1.763         1.752         1.750         1.757
                                                                                                                                           -0.3            0.6
                                                                   -0.6          -0.1           0.4             1.2           0.5
   %CH                    0.0         -0.9           -0.7 11.445.820    11.329.322      11.320.785    11.492.700   11.452.417 E20LA        11.598.803    11.094.390    11.140.129     11.186.787    11.166.831                                         -0.1           1.5           -0,3 0.5           0.4         - 3.2           2.5         -1.0
    %CH                               -4.4 1.000           1.000         1.000         1.000 1.000         1.000         1.000         1.000 0.8           -0.7 SUGAR 20                                                                       0.0           0.0            0.0            0.0 0.0
    %CH 1.000           1.000         1.000         0.985 UNOIL20                                         1.000         1.000         1.000         1.000 0.0           -1.5 0.0           0.0           0.0            0.0            0.0 1CH 0.650           0.650         0.G50         0.650 0.650         0.650         0.G50         0.650 0.0 UNCLASS20                                                                      0.0           0.0            0.0            0.0          0.0
    %CH                                                              0.0 0.850           0.850         0.850         0.850 BAG 20                                          0.850         0.850         0.850         0.850 0.0            0.0 0.0           0.0           0.0            0.0            0.0 ICH 1973          1974          2975          1976            1977 1970          1971           1972 162.246       163.147       161.242       162.711       175.735         202.344 MH20 SALA         88.646       145.441                                                       0.9             8.0          15.1 64.1           11.6           0.6          -1.2
    %CH                   5.4 1.200         1.240         1.232         1.323           1.380 JQlND20             1.089         1.128          1.169                                                                     4.3 3.6            3.4           2.6         -0.6             7.3
    %CH                    2.6           3.6 1.739         1.719         1.713         1.676         1.709           1.721 E20                1.783         1.755                                                                                    0.7
                                                      -0.9          -1.1          -0.4          -2.2             2.0
    %CH                  -0.4          -1.6 11.946.151    11.886.912    11.979.422    11.401.793    11.339.927       11.286.913 E20LA       11.422.592     11.466.008                                          0.8         -4.8          -0.5            -0.5
                         -0.3            0.4            4.2         -0.5
     %CH 1.000         1.000         1.000           1.000 f'JGAR20           1.000         1.000          1.000         1.000 0.0 0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0            0.0
     %CH                   0.0           0.0 1.000         1.000         1.000         1.000           1.000 UN0lL20            1.000         f.000          1.000                                                                      0.0 0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0            0.0
     %CH                   1.5           0.0 1.000         1.000         1.000           1.000 UNCLASS20          0.650         0.950          1.000         1.000 0.0            0.0 g                                       46.2             5.3           0.0           0.0           0.0 o      XCH                  0.0 e                                                                                                                             1.000 0.850         0.850         0.850         0.850         0.050 N     8AG20             0.850         0.850                                                                       0.0          17.6 0.0            0.0           0.0           0.0           1.0

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s V 4 t LP&L INDUSTRIA CONSUMPTION IN SICS 22 & 23, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED - t 1 l i 1960 1961 1962 1963 1954 1965 1966 1967 19G8 1969 1970 i NH2223 SALA 1.193 1.273 1.836 2.109 2.182 2.287 2.582 2.400 t

                  %CH                                                                                       6.7       44.2      14.9                  3.4                         4.8    12.9          -7.0 JQ1N022'         O.693   0.714             0.762                  0.789                 0.853      0.928     0.985             1.000                          1.079   1.126        1.11 7

,l %CH -1.9 3.0 6.7 3.6 8.0 8.8 6.1 1.6 7.9 4.3 -0.7 I JQINO23 0.816 0.822 0.855 0.891 0.922 0.974 0.999 1.000 1.028 1.066 1.C14

                  %CH                1.9           0.7         4.0                       4.1                3.5        5.6       2.6                  0.1                         2.8      3.7            3. 9

, E22 0.925 0.893 0.902 0.066 0.892 0.926 0.963 0.959 0.994 1.003 0.476 *

                  %CH               -2.2       -3.4            1.0                    -1.9                  0.7        3.8       4.1               -0.5                           3.7      0.9         - 2. 6                        i

E23 1.233 1.214 1.264 1.233 1.303 1.354 1.402 1.398 1.406 1.409 t . 365

                  %CH                0-G       -1.5            4.0                       1.5                 1.5       4.0       3.5               -0.3                           0.6      0.2         -3.1

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E2223LA 939.486 850.459 1.102.949 1.063.295 1.203.829 1.775.900 1.977.286 1.934.555 2.060.320 2.196.971 2.6c2.362 L

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StE LPOI2223 1.247 1.250 1.274 1.308 1.297 1.208 1.227 1.203 1.336 1.369 1.055 , %CH 0.2 1.9 2.7 -0.9 -6.9 1.6 4.5 4.2 2.5 -22.9 [ TYPi2223LA 1.367 1.417 1.420 1.409 1.360 1.301 1.289 1.261 1.278 1.278 5.*83 ! *CH

                   .                               3.6         0.3                    -0.8                 -3.5       -4.3      -0.9               -0.6                          -0.2      0.0           0.4 WP10574          1.097    1.134            1.115                  1.077                 1.048      1.077     1.050             1.000                          0.957   0.934        1.259           O i
                  %CH                              3.3        -1.6                    -3.4                 -2.7        2.8      -2.5               -4.9                          -4.3    -2.4          14.8          h         9 UNCLASS2223                                                                             0.400      0.400     0.400             0.400                          0.400   0.400        0300 0.0 M

i %CH 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 l C

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                                                                                             .co LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 22 & 23, SEASONA1.LY ADJUSTE (CONT'D) 1971       1972       1973        1974      1975      1976      1977 MH22235ALA       6.675      9.545     13.009      15.412    15.314    18.369    19.637
    %CH              178.1       43.0       36.3        10.5      -0.6      19.9       6.9 JOIND22          1.165      1.327      1.429       1.326     1.225     1.364     1.373
    %CH                4.3       13.9         7.7       -7.2      -7.6      11.4       0.6 JQINO23          1.048      1.094      1.173       1.143     1.077     1.221     1.241
    %CH                3.3        4.4         7.2       -2.6      -5.7      13.4       1.6 E22              0.959      0.994      1.026       0.998     0.902     0.966     0 982
    %CH               -1.8        3.7        3.2        -3.7      -8.8       7.2       1.6 E23              1.345      1.375      1.405       1.348     1.235     1.299     1.288
    %CH               -1.4        2.2        2.2        -4.1      -0.4       5.2      -0.8 E2223LA      3.150.490 4.035.402  5.095.154   5.783.101  5.364.868 6.498.047 7.547.307
    %CH               17.5       28.1       26.3        13.5      -7.2      21.1      16.1 RE LPOI2223      0.782      0.835      0.739       0.317     0.289     0.319     0.337
    %CH              -25.9        6.8      -11.5       -57.1      -8.9      10.3       5.6 TYPT2223LA       1.300      1.329      1.388       1.526     1.428     1.443     1.759
    %CH                1.3        2.3        4.4         9.9      -6.4       1.0      21.9 WPIO574          1.663      1.593      1.914       4.866     4.949     4.532     5.224
    %CH               32.1       -4.2       20.2       154.2       1.7      -8.4      15.3 UNCLASS2223      0.915      1.000      1.000       1.000     1.000     1.000     1.000
    %CH              128.8        9.3        0.0         0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0 P

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                                                                                                     .o LP6L INDUTIVIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 24, 25 & 26, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) 1973        1974        1975        1976        1977 MH24252GSALA                  877.112     918.909     81G.841     946.857     976.680
      %CH                              13.0          4.8      -i0.0         14.5         3.1 JQ1ND24                         1.260       1.161       1.076       1.251       1.338
      %CH                                4.3       -7.9        -7.3         16.2         7.0 JOINO25                         1.437       1.376       1.183       1.328       1.409
      %CH                              10.1        -4.3       -14.0        12.2          6.1 JOINO26                         1.374       1.344       1.164       1.330       1.375 WCH                                6.6       -2.2       -13.4         14.2         3.4 E24                             0.643       0.626       0.557       0.605       0.642
      %CH                                3.3       -2.6       -11.1          8.7         6.1 E25                             0.535       0.517       0.451       0.490       0.510 7.C H                              64        -3.5       -12.8          8.6         4.2 E26                             0.701       0.702       0.643       0.676       0.698 2CH                                1.8         0.1       -8.4          5.2         3.3 L242520LA                  24.505.137  23.647.595  21.055.478  22.074.1 9  22.670.742
      ?.C H                              3.2       -3.5       -11.1          4.8         2.7 RELPNG242526                    0.014       0.014       0.C09       0.008       0.000
      %CH                             -20.6        -2.9       -30.8       -17.3        -2.5 1 Y P T 24.'526L A             0.929       1.067       0.970       0.984       1.298
      %CH                                6.8       14.8        -9.1          1.5       31.9 TYPTNGITLA                      66.71       79.85      107.39      122.36      175.0'3
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Am. No. 2, (10/80)

ro fu LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 28 & 30, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1970 1571 1972 1973 1974 1963 1964 1965 1906 1967 1968 1969 1.471.912 1.673.82G 1.784.253 2.033.1G2 2.080.509 2.277.789 MH2830 SALA 276.041 284.579 349.766 610.259 949.599 1.200.983 14.0 2.3 9.5 3.1 22.9 74.5 55.6 34.9 14.9 13.7 6.6

    %CH 0.953   0.999      1.094      1.1n3       1.204      1.259      1.436      1.545       1.534 JQlND26            0.718       0.787       0.877                                                                         14.t        7.6         3.2 11.4           9.0    4.5         9.5        8.I         1.8        4.5
    %CH                   9.3        9.C 1.010      1.008      1.033       1.056 0.865       0.879       0.908        0.961   1.001      1.030      8.0G0        1.049 E28                                                                                      2.9        -1.0      -3.7       -0.2        2.5         2.3 2.0         1.5        3.3           5.9    4.2         2.8 1CH 9.415      9.843     10.133     10.600      11.500 C2030NSLA          5.437       6.165       6.546        7.522   7.936      8.425      9.3H9 2.9        5.4         7.8 14.9    5.5         6.2       11.4         0.3        4.5
    %CH                   4.1       13.4         6.2 0.970      0.970      0.970      1.000       1.000 0.970       0.970       0.970        0.970   0.970      0.970      0.970 1.sNC AR A2 8 0.0         0.0        0.0       0.0        3.1         0.0
    %CH                      i        0.0         0.0           0.0   0.0         0.0 0.000   0.000      0.000      0.000        0.000     0.000      0.003      0.000       0.000 STRIKE 28             ~ J      0.000       0.000                                                                            NC         NC         NC NC     NC         NC         fJC         NC         NC
    %CH                     NC         NC          NC 0.770      0.770      0.770        0.770     0.770      0.770      0,770       0.770 CHEM 28                                    0.770        0.770                                                              0.0        0,0        0,0 0.0    0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0 1CH 1975          197G           1977 f.1H28305 A L A 2,976.887     4.061.988     4.376.622
     ~,c H                  30.7          36.5             7.7 00!NO28              1.474         1.692          1.807
     %CH                    -7.5          14.8             6.8 E28                  1.012         1.034          1.057
     %CH                    -4.2           2.1             2.3 E2830NSt.A         12.027        13.956         15.374
     *CH 4.5          16.0          10.2 UNCARA28            1.000         1.000          1.000
      %CH                    0.0           0.0             0.0 g      U,7*"

W - CHEM 28 1.000 1.000 1.000 y 0.0 0.0 o %CH 29.9 e N w C. O ~ O - O O

                               /                                                                                                                                                 v LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 33 & 34 EXCPET KAISER ALUMINUM, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1960          1968       1962              1963       1964              1965         1966            19G7           1968               196*

EH3334KKASALA 20.577 13.180 15.201 23.440 25.180 26.633 29.224 29.8G5 37.517 50.139

             %CH                                   -35.9       15.3              54.2         7.1              6.1                9.7        2.2          25.6               53.0 JQ1NO33                 0.720         0.718      0.760             0.022      0.930             1.020             1.005      1.001          1.042              1.1 10
             %CH                         0.9         -0.3       5.9               8.1        13.1              9.7                6.4       -7.7           4.0                 9.4
!            E33                     1.231         1.143      1.166             1.172      1.233             1.301             1.351      1.322          1.315              1.361

] %CH 4.0 -7.2 2.0 0.6 5.2 5.5 3.8 -2.1 -0.5 3.5 E33tA 2.587.181 2.195.014 2.476.777 2.611.920 2.738.515 2.730.780 2.771.535 2.773.090 3.182.555 3.158.tb0 7.C H -15.2 12.8 5.5 4.8 -0.3 1.5 0.1 14.8 -0.H JQlNO34 0.711 0.693 0.754 0.779 0.876 0.908 0.973 1.000 1.056 1.076

             %CH                          0.1        -2.5       8.7               3.3         6.1              9.9                7.1        2.8           5.6                 2.2 E34                     1.136        1.084      1.128             1.150      1.190             1.269              1.35      1.3t 3         1.'90 3                1. t 1C
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2.002 2.066 2.147 2.375 2.579 2.701 2.958 3.883 ACH 7.1 0.8 3.2 3.9 10.6 8.6 4.7 9.5 5.* RE LP013334 XK A

              %CH 0.823         0.840 2.0 0.858 2.1 0.878 2.3 0.845
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TYPf3334XKALA 0.903 0.953 0.956 0.945 0.8.56 0.837 0.825 0.817 0.a14 0.Ht4

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w Z' LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSLHPTION IN SICS 33 & 34, EXCEPT KAISER ALLHINLH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 MH3334XKASALA 71.285 88.007 132.370 141.559 148,135 168.136 245.020 255.987

     %CH                22.6       23.5       50.4       6.9         4.6       13.5      45.7        4.5 JQ1NO33           1.065      0.997      1.122     1.269      1.230      0.965      1.090      1.104
     %CH                -6.5       -6.4       12.6      13.1       -3.1      -21.6       12.9         1.3 E33               1.316      1.229      1.241     1.324      1.344      1.100      1.190      1.203
     %CH                -3.3       -6.6        0.9       6.7         1.5     -12.2        0.9         1.1 E33LA         2.984.864  2.856.788  3.273.519 4.004.069 4.000.611   3.690.099  3.871.026  4.189.006
     %CH                -5.5       -4.3       14.6      22.3       -0.1       -7.8        4.9        8.2 J0!N334           1.024      1.035      1.120     1.247      1.242      1.099      1.233      1.309
     %CH                -5.1         1.1       8.2      11.3       -0.4      -11.5       12.2        6.2 E34               1.381      1.334      1.396     1.500      1.505      1.336      1.387      1.451
     %CH                - 4.1      -3.4        4.6       7.5         0.4     -11.3        3.8        4.6 E34NSLA           3.110      3.528      3.700     4.073      4.489      5.100      6.638      7.047
     %CH                -0.1       13.5        4.9      10.1        10.2      13.6       30.2        6.2 RELPOl3334XKA     0.673      0.503      0.543     0.491      0.221      0.195      0.216      0.247
     %CH               -22.8      -25.3        8.1      -9.5      -55.1      -11.6       10.8       14.4 TYPT3334XKALA     0.819      0.836      0.865     0.924      1.0G2      0.964      0.979      1.293
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l \ f I 4 i LP&L NON-MANUFACTURING TOTAL CONSUMPTION, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) . l 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 MHNLtSALA 1,G71.530 2,172.340 2.276.8G6 2,325.899 2.548.220 2,759.950 3,227.575

           %CH                                20.1                        30.0        4.8           2.2                  9.6              8.3                    16.9 EbMLA                           0.665                         0.719      0.811       0.869             0.934                 1.000                   1.073 7.3                                                        I
           %CH                                  4.1                         F2       12.7           7.2                  7.5              7.1 L10NC00NOLA                  40.889                      232.889       383.889       7.889           24.889               -186.111                 290.889                                                        ,

j %CH NM 469.6 64.8 -97.9 215.5 N'A NM l COMPUTNM 0.850 1'.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

           %CH                                13.3                        17.6        0.0           0.0                  0.0              0.0                     0.0 RWMPNM                          1.619                         1.595      1.534       1.457              1.273                1.215                   1.304
           *CH
            .                                 -2.9                        -1.5       -3.9        -5.0             -12.6                  -4.5                     7.3                                                        4 q           MNMLA                              1.97                        2.00       2.05        2.19                 2.09               2.11                    2.42
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           "4C H                                 0.9                        1.5       3.0           6.7              -4.4                 0.7                    14.7 CPISOUTHNS                      1.214                         1.251      1.340       1.506              1.646                1.735                   1.854 i           %CH                                   3.9                        3.0       7.1        12.4                    9.3              5.4                     6.8 EMPLOY 722NM                    0 000                         0.950      1.000       1.000              1.000                1.000                   1.000

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                                                                                                                                        ' CD LP&L STREETLIGHTING TOTAL CONSUMPTION 1964      1965       1966       1967      1968   1969   1970   1971     1972         1973     1974 1962    1963 MHSLTLA      39.466  41.992   45.798    48.704    50.741    54.921      58.237 61.326 02.904 65.917   G5.?78      66.998   69.117 6.4      9.1       6.3       4.2        0.2       6.0    5.3    2.6    4.8     -1.0          26       3.2
     %CH CURTLA      226.995 234.019 244.561    2G . 9 31 265.0:18 277.710 286.2G9 294.679 303.6G7 312.322 326.S97      340.767 351.644 4.1       3.8       4.4        4.0       3.1    2.3    3.1    2.8        4.6        4.3      3.2
     %CH             3.4      3.4 0.000      0.250      0.000     0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000    0.000       0.000    0.000 BETSYSL               0.000    0.000 NC        NC   -100.0          NC     NC     NC     NC          NC        NC       NC 7.C H                              NC ACCTNG714SL   0.000   0.000    0.000     0.000      0.000      0.000     0.000  0.000  0.000  0.250    0.000       0.000    0.000 NC        NC         NC        NC     NC     NC      NC  -100.0           NC       NC
     %CH                       NC       NC 0.000     0.000      0.000      0.000     0.000  0.000  0.C00  0.000    0 . .'5 0   0.000    0.000 ACCTNG721SL   0.000   0.000                                                                                  NC   -100.0 NC    ~ NC          NC       NC         NC        NC     NC     NC      NC                            NC
     %CH 1975    1976     1977
     ?AHSLTLA     71.983  75.122   80.073 7CH             4.1      4.4      6.6 CURTLA      361.340 372.912 389.939                               '
     *CH
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D ~ l LP&L CO-OPERATIVE TOTAL CONSUMPTION, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 MHWCSALA 187.469 196.241 222.698 249.134 281.842 322.297 365.083 400.692 455.888 522.304 589.494

      %CH                           4.7        13.5          11.9          13.1              14.4                    13.3          9.8       13.8          14.6       12.9 CHRTSALA 734.173 784.997 981.972                  1.109.971   1.274.516     1.432.849             1.651.949            1.870.090 2.202.257      2.477.665 2.780.369
      %CH                           6.9        25.1          13.0          14.8              12 4                    15.3         13.2       17.8          12.5       12.2 MHNMSALA 447.159 497.568 537.945                    607.986      666.243       739.324                     848.850     1.000.139  1.137.535     1.265.288  1.392.263
      %CH                          11.3         8.1          13.0           9.6              11 0                    14.8;        17.8       13.7          11.2       10.0 1971                1972          1973          1974          1975              1976                     1977 MHWCSALA   635.720            717.723        782.232       815.452      893.654           971.828                1.093.554
      %CH             7.8                12.9            9.0         4.2           9.6                       8.7             12.5 MHRTSALA 3.093.404          3.636.004 -3.931.038 ~.958.656 3            4.360.501         4.594.000 5.334.429
      %CH           11.3                 17.5            8.1         0.7          10.2                       5.4             16.1

, MHNMSALA 1.671.530 2.172.840 2.276.866 2.325.899 2.548.220 2.759.950 3.227.575

      %CH           20.1                 30.0            4.8         2.2           9.6                       8.3             16.9 e

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i l l i I i l i ENERGY MODEL ENDOGENOUS AND EXOGENOUS VARIABLES FORECASTED VALUES l

i O l Am. No. 2, (10/80)

_ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _._ _ _ = _ -_ m V ( j LP&L RESIDENTIAL TOTAL CUSTOMERS 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 477.892 489.716 501.861 514.304 526.930 539.653 552.448 CURTLA 416.830 433.249 443.949 455.023 466.357 2.5 2.4 2.4 3.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

                  %CH               6.9 1.454274 NR2189tPLCO 1.208193 1.230992 1.253898 1.274909 1.295406 1.316348              1.6 1.337898 1.6 1.360005 1.7 1.382630 1.7 1.405815      1.7 1.4296741.7           1.7
                  %CH               1.7         1.9         1.9        1.7           1.6 0.000       0.000        0.000      0.000           0.000        0.000          0.000 CAU694RES      0.000       0.000       0.000      0.000         0.000 NC                NC          NC            NC NC          NC         NC           NC           NC          NC           NC
                  %CH                 NC 0.000       0.000        0.000      0.000           0.000        0.000          0.000 HOU704RES      0.000       0.000       0.000      0.000         0.000 NC                NC          NC            NC NC          NC         NC           NC           NC          NC           NC
                  %CH                 NC 0.000      0.000         0.000       0.000       0.000        0.000      0.000            0.000       0.000          0.000 LAK764RES      0.000       0.000                                                                                     NC                NC          NC            NC NC          NC         NC           NC           NC          NC           NC
                  %CH                 NC 0.000       0.000        0.000       0.000       0.000        0.000      0.000            0.000       0.000          0.000 TH1771RES      0.000       0.000                                                                                     NC                NC          NC            NC NC          NC         NC            NC          NC          NC           NC
                  %CH           ~100.0 0.000       0.000        0.000       0.000        0.000       0.000      0.000            0.000        0.000         0.000 N#722RES       0.000       0.000 NC         NC            NC          NC          NC           NC         NC                NC      ' NC              NC
                  %CH                 NC          NC 0.250      0.250            0.250       0.250          0.250 SEASONQ1       0.250       0.250       0.250      0.250        0.250       0.250        8.250 0.0           0.0 0.0          0.0         0.0          0.0          0.0        0.0               0.0
                   %CH               0.0         0.0         0.0 0.250        0.250        0.250       0.250        0.250      0.250            0.250       0.250          0.250 SEASONQ3       0.250       0.250       0.250                                                                                         0.0         0.0           0.0 0.0        0.0          0.0          0.0         0.0          0.0        0.0
                   %CH               0.0         0.0 0.000         0.000       0.000       0.000        0.000      0.000            0.000       0.000          0.000 RYPOPOLD       0.000       0.000       0.000                                                                                           NC          NC            NC NC         NC           NC           NC          NC           NC         NC
                   %CH                 NC          NC 3.562       3.685        3.81t      3.933             4.040      4.140          4.237 RYPOPNEW       3.078       3.135       3.218      3.347         3.450                                                                                          2.3 3.1         3.2         3.4          3.4        3.2               2.7         2.5
                   %CH               4.5         1.9         2.6        4.0 p

9 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 '

• BET 654RES 0.000 0.000 NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC t2: %CH NC e 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 BUR 664RES 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC

             ?      %CH                NC          NC 385 385           385         385          385          385        385              385          385 4.808          385        385 O      SCURTLA
                                               -92.0          0.0        0.0          0.0         0.0          0.0          0.0        0.0              0.0          0.0           0.0 o    %CH m

i u 9

LP6L RESIDENTIAL TOTAL CUSTOMERS (CONT'D) 1997 1998 199. 2000 2001 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 644.067 657.376 670.735 684.180 697.752 711.482 CURTLA 565.301 578.219 591.214 604.309 617.505 633.776 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0

  %CH               2.3        2.3        2.2 1.627123 1.650401      1.673382 1.696055 1.718427          1.740528 NR2'iptPLCO 1.479625 1.505329 1.530613 1.555371           1.579654 1.603551                                   1.4         1.4         1.3         1.3 1.5         1.5        1.4
  %CH               1.7        1.7        1.7          1.6        1.6 0.000      0.000       0.000      0.000       0.000       0.000      0.000        0.000 CAM 694RES     0.000      0.000      0.000        0.000                                                                     NC         NC           NC NC          NC         NC          NC         NC          NC
  %CH                 NC         NC         NC 0.000      0.000       0.000      0.000       0.000       0.000      0.000        0.000 HOU704RES      0.000      0.000      0.000        0.000                                                                     NC         NC           NC NC          NC         NC          NC         NC          NC
  %CH                 NC         NC         NC 0.000      0.000       0.000      0.000       0.000       0.000      0.000        0.000 LAK764RES      0.000      0.000      0.000        0.000                                                                     NC         NC           NC NC          NC         NC          NC         NC          NC
  %CH                 NC         NC         NC 0.000      0.000       0.000      0.000       0.000       0.000      0.000         0.000 TH1771RES      0.000      0.000      0.000        0.000                                                                     NC          NC          NC NC         NC         NC          NC         NC          NC
  %CH                 NC         NC         NC 0.000      0.000       0.000      0.000       0.000       0.000       0.000        0.000 NW722RES       0.000       0.000     0.000        0.000                                                                     NC          NC           NC NC         NC         NC          NC         NC           NC
  %CH                 NC         NC         NC 0.250     0.250        0.250      0.250       0.250       0.250      0'250
                                                                                                                                      .           0.250 SEASONQ1       0.250      0.250      0.250       0.250                                                                   0.0         0.0          0. 0 ,

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

   %CH               0.0        0.0       0.0 0.250       0.250      0.250       0.250      0.250       0.250       0.250      0.250        0.250 SEASONQ3       0.250      0.250      0.250                                                                    0.0         0.0        0.0          0.0 0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0
   %CH               0.0        0.0        0.0 0.000      0.000       0.000      0.000       0.000       0.000      0.000        0.000 RYPOPOLD       0.000      0.000      0.000       0.000                                                                      NC         NC           NC NC         NC          NC          NC         NC          NC
   %CH                 NC         NC         NC 4.634       4.740      4.843       4.941      5.043       5.150       5.264      5.384        5.510 RYPOPNEW       4.332      4.429      4.529                                                                                                        2.3 2.2        2.3         2.3         2.3        2.2         2.0        2.1         2.1         2.2         2.3
   %CH               2.2 0.000      0.000      0.000       0.000      0.000       0.000       0.000      0.000        0.000 BET 654RES     0.000      0.000      0.000                                                                      NC          NC          NC          NC NC          NC          NC         NC          NC         NC
   %CH                 NC         NC 0.000      0.000       0.000      0.000       0.000       0.000      0.000         0.000 BUR 664RES     0.000      0.000      0.000        0.000 NC           NC         NC          NC           NC NC         NC         NC          NC          NC         NC          NC
   %CH 385         385        385          385        385         385          385 385        385        385          385        385                                                                                0.0
    &CURTLA                                                                   0.0          0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0 0.0        0.0        0.0          0.0        0.0 y   %CH

? z e w 3 8 9 O O

5 I

i i l LP&L RESIDENTIAL TOTAL CUSTOMERS (CONT'D) 2002 2003 CURTLL 725.409 739,576

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -;
                       %CH                                                  2.0                      2.0 i

l .NR21&SLPLCO 1.762403 -1.784097 ! %CH 1.3 1.2 CA!a6)lAES 0.000 0.000 ' 1 %CH NC NC l- y I HOU704RES 0.000 0.000 . ! %CH NC NC I LAK764RES 0.000 0.000 l %CH NC NC l ! TH1771RES 0.000 0.000 l %CH NC NC i l NW722RES 0.000 0.000 1 %CH NC NC l 4 SEASONQt 0.250 0.250 i %CH 0.0 0.0 l SEASONQ3 0.250 0.250 i %CH 0.0 0.0 I RYP9 POLO 0.000 0.000

                         ,.C H                                                 NC                         NC RYPSPNEW                                        5.644                  5.78G
                          %CH                                                2.4                        2.5
         >                BET 654RES                                      0.000                  0.000 S

• NC NC

                          %CH l         2
        .O                BUR 664RES                                      0.000 -                0.000
                          %CH                                                  NC                          NC
                          &CURTLA                                            385                        385
       $)                 %CH                                                0.0                        0.0 R=

8 w Un i _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _. . _ . _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ , . _ , - _ . .- _ ._

LP6L RESIDENTIAL TOTAL ALL-ELECTRIC CUSTOMERS 1987 1988 1989 1990 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1978 1979 1980 1981 89.967 99.021 108.699 118.934 129.677 140.903 152.592 45.996 53.467 59.636 66.390 73.697 81.536 9.8 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.3 CUERTLA 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.3 10.1 22.3 16.2 11.5 XCH 514.304 526.930 539.653 552.448 565.301 2.3 CURTLA 416.830 433.249 443.949 2.5 455.023 2.5 466.357 2.5 477.892 2.5 489.716 2.5 501.861 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4

  %CH               6.9        3.9 0.000       0.000      0.000      0.000       0.000 0.000      0 000       0.000     0.000     0.000     0.000                                                        NC HOU704RES      0.000      0.000                                            NC        NC       NC         NC          NC         NC         NC NC          NC        NC          NC         NC
  %CH                                                                                                                                                4.332 3.011      3.933       4.040      4.140      4.237 3.078      3.1h5      3.218      3 347       3.450     3 562     3.685 3.2         2.7        2.5        2.3         2.2 RYPOPNEW                                           4.0         3.1       3.2       3.4       3.4 4.5        1.9        2.6
  %CH                                                                                                                                                0.000 0.000     0.000      0.000        0.000     0.000      0.000 0.000      0.000      0.000      0 000       0.000     0 000                               NC          NC         NC         NC         NC CYPOPOLD                                             NC          NC        NC        NC        NC
  %CH                 NC         NC         NC 0.000        0.000     0 000      0.000       0.000 0 000      0 000     0 000     0.000      0.000                                                        NC Dv723T0744      0.000     0.000      0.000 NC        NC        NC         NC          NC         NC         NC NC         NC         NC         NC          NC
  %CH                                                                                                                                           0           0 0         0         0            0         0 0          0          0           0         0                                                              NC          NC SCUERTLA         428                                                      NC        NC        NC         NC          NC         NC
                           -100.0           NC         NC          NC
   %CH 1999        2000       2001       2002        2003 1994        1995      1996      1997      1998 1991       1992       1993 164.737   177.341     189.675 202.064 214.946 228.280 24; 156 255.292 268,439              5.2 281.6314.9 294.607 4.6 307.6664.4 321.000 4.3 CUERTLA                                            6.5         6.4       6.2       6.0       5.5 8.0        7.7        7.0
   %CH.

CURTLA 578.219 591.214 2.2 604.309 2.2 617.505 2.2 2.1630.77G2.1 644.067 2.1 657.376 2.0 670.735 2.0 684.1802.0697.752 2.0 2.0 711.482 2.0 725.40

   %CH               2.3 0.000        0.000     0.000      0.000       0.000 0.000      0.000      0.000      0 000       0.000     0.000     0.000     0.000 NC          NC         NC         NC          NC HOU704RES                                            NC          NC        NC        NC        NC NC         NC         NC
   %CH                                                                                                                                                5.786 4.843     4.941     5.043      5.150     5.264        5.384     5.510      5.644 4.429      4.529      4.634      4.740                                                   2.2         2.3        2.3        2.4         2.5 RYPOPNEW                                          2.3         2.2       2.0       2.1       2.1 2.2        2.3        2.3
   %CH                                                                                                                                                0.000 0.000     0.000      0.000     0.000        0.000     0.000      0.000 RYPOPOLD       0.000     0.000      0.000       0 000      0.000 NC        NC         NC   -

NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC

    %CH                NC 0.000        0.000      0.000      0.000       0.000

> 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 NC NC B Dv723TQ744 0.000 0.000 NC NC NC NC NC

• NC NC NC NC NC

    %CH                NC
%                                                                                    -300      -700       -700        -900    -1.100     -1.200      -1.300 0    -300        -300        -300     -300                                                              -9.1        -0.3
    &CUERTLA            0                                                              0.0  -133.3          0.0      -28.6      -22.2 e

NC NC O.0 0.0 00 g XCH NC O S S S e -

                                                                                                                                                       ]

L \} } LP&L RESIDENTIAL USE PER CUSTOMER, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 16.42 16.91 17.41 18.00 18.56 19.09 MSCRTSALA 14.49 14.83 15.31 15.85 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.5 3.6 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.1

     %Ca                      5.9 16.263.356   16.540.331    16.828.722    17.137.172    17,435.712         17.733.166    18.031.690    18.317.139 E F S AT LA     15.635.775    15.977.937                                                     1.8                1.7           1.7           1.7            1.6 4.2          2.2           1.8          1.7           1.7
     %CH 1.027         1.038            1.035           1.028         1.025          1.020 RPE                   1.058        1.051         1.053        1.043
                                                                                                                                                -0.3           -0.5 0.1         -0.6           0.2         -0.9          -1.6           1.1              -0.3           -0.7
     %CH 2.68          2.88               3.05          3.20          3.37           3.55 MPRTLA                  2.11         2.25          2.41         2.55                                                                                       5.3 6.8          7.1          5.9           4.9           7.5                5.6           5.1           5.4
     %CH                      7.7 2.609         2.776            2.945           3.115         3.292          3.482 CPISOUTHNS            1.992        2.144         2.291        2.449 5.7            5.8 7.5           7.6          6.9          6.9           6.6           6.4                6.1           5.8
     %CH 3.347         3.450         3.562             3.685          3.811         3.933          4.040 RYPSPNEW              3.078        3.135         3.218 3.4           3.2            2.7 4.5            1.9         2.6          4.0           3.1           3.2                3.4
     %CH 0,000 RYP3POLD              0.000        0.000         0.000         0.000        0.000         0.000             0.000          0.000         0.000 NC             NC           NC                 NC            NC            NC             NC
     %CH                        NC            NC           NC 0.324        0.320         0.315             0.310           0.304         0.298         0.292 SAT 3RMLA            0.330        0.329         0.326                                                                                                    -2.2
                             -4.1         -0.5          -0.7         -0.9          -1.1          -1.5               -1.6          -1.9          -2.1
     %CH 0.574        0.586          0.600            0.614           0.627         0.040         0.652 SAT 3CLA             0.534         0.549        0.562 2.2           2.1            1.9 6.8           2.7         2.3           2.1           2.2         - 2. 4               2.2
      %CH 0.000         0.000             0.000          0.000         0.000          0.000 L1DNCDONOLA          0.000         0.000         0.000        0.000 NC             NC NC           NC           NC             NC           NC                 NC            NC
      %CH                -100.0 0.000         0.000              0.000         0.000         0.000          0.000 LIDNCDOMOLA          0.000         0.000         0.000        0.000                                                                                         NC NC           NC           NC             ND           NC                 NC            NC            NC
      %CH                 -100.0
 >                                                                                0.158         0.171              0.184         0.197         0.211          0.226 M    SATHTLA               0.110        0.123         0.134        0.146 6.8 8.3          8.0                7.7           7.4           7.1 g    %CH                     14.4         11.9           8.9          8.6 o                                                                                0.000         0.000              0.000         0.000         0.000          0.000

• L1DNHODNOLA 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 NC NC

                          -100.0              NC           NC           NC             NC            NC                NC            NC y    %CH 0.000 0.000        0.000         0.000        0.000         0.000         0.000              0.000         0.000         0.000 m     L1DNHD090LA                                                                     NC            NC                 PC            NC            NC             NC
                          -100.0              NC           NC           NC
 $    %CH N

4 8 , y ca .

w co LP&L RESIDENTIAL USE PER CUSTOMER, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) 1994 1995 1996 1997 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 21.41 21.87 22.77 23.20 23.63 M7CRT SA LA 19.60 20.07 20.51 20.96 22.32 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9

  %CH                   2.7          2.4 EFSATLA       18.582.395   18.827.930   19.060.078   19,284.486   19.504.529   19.716.063    19.923.514 20.129.869 20.330.999 20.526.603 1.0 1.2          1.2          1.1          1.1           1.1        1.0        1.0
  %CH                   1.4          1.3 1.012        1.010        1.006        1.002        0.999         0.997      0.994      0.992       0.990 RPE                1.014                                                                                      -0.3        -0.2        -0.2
                       -0.6         -0.3         -0.2         -0.4         -0.4         -0.3          -0.3
  %CH 4.64         4.90          5.17       5.45       5.75        6.07
  *JPRTLA              3.74         3.95         4.17         4.40                                                                       5.5 5.7          5.5          5.5          5.5           5.5        5.5        5.5
  %CH                   5.2          5.6 4.633        4.902         5.186      5.486      5.801       6.131 CPISOUTHMS         3.685        3.900        4.130        4.375                                                                        5.7 5.9          5.8           5.8        5.8        5.7
  %CH                   5.8          5.8          5.9          5.9 4.529        4.634         4.740      4.843      4.941       5.043 RyPOPMEW           4.140        4.237        4.332        4.429                                                                        2.1 2.2          2.2          2.3          2.3           2.3        2.2        2.0
  %CH                   2.5          2.3 0.000        0.000         0.000      0.000      0.000       0.000 RYPOPOLD          0.000        0.000        0.000        0.000                                                                         NC NC           NC           NC            NC            NC        NC         NC
   %CH                   NC           NC 0.264        0.258         0.253      0.247      0.242       0.237 SA13RWLA          0.285        0.200        0.274        0.269                                                                       -2.1
                                                 -1.9         -1.9         -2.0         -2.0          -2.1       -2.0       -2.2
   %CH                 -2.1         -2.0 0.699        0.707         0.715      0.723      0.730       0.737 SAT 3CLA          0.664        0.673        0.682         0.691 1.2           1.1           1.1       1.1        1.0         1.0
   %CH                  1.7          1.5          1.3          1.2 0.000        0.000         0.000      0.000      0.000       0.000 L10NCDONOLA       0.000        0.000        0.000         0.000                                                                        NC NC           NC           NC            NC            NC        NC         NC
   %CH                   NC           NC 0.000        0.000         0.000      0.000      0.000       0.000 L1DNCDDMO LA      0.000        0.000        0.000         0.000                                                                        NC HC           NC           NC            NC'           NC        NC         NC
   %CH                   NC            NC 0.285       0.300        0.314          0.327     0.341      0.354       0.368 SATHTLA           0.240        0.255        0.270                                                                                     3.9 6.1          5.8          5.5          5.3          4.6            4.3       4.1        4.0
   %CH                  6.5 0.000     0.000       0.000      0.000 L1DNHDDNOLA        0.000       0.000        0.000         0.000        0.000       0.000 NC NC           NC           NC           NC           NC            NC         NC         NC
   %CH                    NC 0.000         0.000      0.000      0.000       0.000 L1DNHDOMO LA       0.000        0.000        0.000        0.000        0.000 NC         NC          NC NC           NC           NC           NC           NC           NC            NC
   %CH a

e Z w w O b O O O

  --     , - - - - , - . - - - - - - .                             - - - -      - -- --- =           e6 ,e,='ba-->4   -A         e.--  - - - - - - - -       "+hha--   I'a-
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                                 .LP6L RESIDENTIAL USE PER CUSTOMER, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) 4, 1998              1999            2000                     2001                            2002             2003 4

MDCRTSALA 24.05 24.47 24.91 25.36 25.82 26.30 XCH 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 i

-                                      EFSATLA        20.709.964 20.889.377 21.067.811                   21.243.013 21.417.649 21.593.174
                                       %CH                    0.9               0.9             0.9                         0.8                           0.8                     0.8
!                                      RPE                 0.989             0.988           0.987                       0.986                         0.984              0.983                                                                                                     i
!                                      %CH                   -0.1              -0.1            -0.1                        -0.1                          -0.1                 -0.2
                                    ' f4P R T L A            6.40              6.75            7.13                        7.52                          7.93                 8.37
!                                      %CH                    5.5              '5.5             5.5                         5.5                           5.5                     5.5                                                                                               ,

CPISOUTHNS 6.476 6.839 7.222 7.627 8.057 8.513 , i %CH 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 t RYPPPNEW 5.150 5.264 5.384 5.510 5.644 5.786

                                       'A C H                 2.1               2.2             2.3                         2.3                           2.4                     2.5 4

j RYP7POLD 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

                                       %CH                      NC                  NC           NC                           NC                            NC                      NC

< SAT 3RMLA 0.232 0.227 0.221 0.216 0.210 0.205

                                       %CH                   -2.1              -2.2            -2.3                        -2.5                          -2.6                 -2.7 j

! SAT 3CLA 0.744 0.750 0.757 0.764 0.771 0.778

                                        %CH                   0.9               0.9             0.9                         0.9                           0.9                     0.9 L1DNCDONOLA        O.000             0.000           0.000                       0.000                         0.000                0.000 3                                       %CH                      NC                   NC           NC                          NC                            NC                      NC 1

l L1 DNCDDMO LA 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

,                                       %CH                     NC                   NC           NC                          NC                            NC                      NC I >                                      SATHTLA             0.381            0.392            0.404                      0.414                          0.424               0.434 j B

• XCH 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 2:

j .O L10NHDDNOLA 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4 %CH NC NC NC NC NC NC i N L1DNHCOMOLA 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 .i 7) O

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l Am. No. 2, (10/80) _. _. ~ _ - _ _ . _ _ .. __ __ - _ _ - - _ _ _ _ . . _ _

N LP6L I!H)USTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 13 & 29, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) 2000 2001 2002 2003 f.N 132 95 A LA 5.950.650 6.231.713' 6.524,390 6.822.725

    %CH                     4.9          4.7          4.7           4.6 001ND29               2.433       2.502        2.573         2.645
    %CH                     2.8          2.0          2.8           2.8 E29                  0.247       0.251        0.254         0.258 XCH                     1.3         1.4          1.5           1.5 E29LA           5.429.181    5,582.548   5.741.044     5,901.434
     %CH                     2.8         2.8          2.8           2.8 RECLASS29            1.000        1.000       1.000         1.000 0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0
     %CH R h ?.* P 132 9      0.235       0.235        0.235         0.235
     %CH                     0.1         0.1          0.1           0.1 WMPT1329LA           4.816       5.133        5.513         5.899
     %CH                     7.0         7.0          7.0           7.0 WPIOS               20.512      21.921       23.431        25.054
     %CH                     6.9         6.9          6.9           6.9 UNCLASS29            1.000        1.000        1.000         1.000 0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0
     %CH SHELL29             1.000        1.000        1.000         1.000
      %CH                    0.0         0.0          0.0           0.0 STRIKES 29          0.000        0.000        0.000        0.000
      %CH                     NC           NC            NC          NC SMH13295ALA               0           0             0            0
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3 63 92 51 65 04 57 42 00 00 00 00 00 0C 00 4 9 5 . 0 1 4 6 0 . 0 0 0 0 0N 0 6 42 02 70 1 1 01 1 7 6 00 00 00 00 00 0 00 8 5 _ 9 1 2 0 1 0 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 6 6 3 2 1 7 - 3 1 7 36 43 93 04 1 3 08 00 00 00 00 00 0C 01 9 5 5 7 1 2 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0N 0 . D 5 72 03 71 1 2 00 97 6. 6 00 00 00 00 00 0 01 E 8 . . G - 9 7 2 0 6 0 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 T 1 5 0 3 2 S 1 7 - U J 3 D A 00 00 00 00 00 0C 9 83 20 45 27 96 26 70 1 Y 6 8 4 2 0 2 0 0 . 0 0 0 0N 9 L 4 63 96 72 1 2 00 78 9. 8 00 00 00 00 00 0 7,2-L 8 . 6 A 9 3 1 0 1 0 2 8 1 1 1 1 1 0 9 N 1 5 2 2 1 1 6 - O S 3 _ A E . S 56 91 61 56 90 65 93 00 00 00 00 00 0C 50 1 6 . 2 . 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 0N 3 3 73 85 71 70 02 1

5. 1

7. 9 00 00 00 00 00 0 23 2 8 5 -

3 9 8 1 0 6 0 2 6 1 1 1 1 1 0 9 1 4 2 2 1

            &      1                   5                                                                    -
       ,    4                          3

- s 1 82 92 92 38 95 77 G5 00 00 00 00 06 J. C 81 S 4 7 1 6 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 N 7 C 2 50 71 70 40 02 27 2. 0 00 00 00 00 00 0 63 I 8 - - - 31 - S 9 3 1 0 4 0 2 4 1 1 1 1 1 0 8 1 4 0 2 1 N 1 5 - I 3 N - O I 51 1 6 03 1 6 93 67 02 00 00 00 00 0 00 0 . 0C 0N 22 2 0 . 0 2 8 0 8 0 0 0 T 1 35 86 75 04 01 09 2. 1 00 00 00 00 00 0 1 3 P 8 - 01 - M 9 3 1 0 8 0 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 8 U 1 4 7 2 1

.           S      1                   4                                                                    -

N O 3 C L 90 97 44 53 07 20 58 00 00 00 00 00 0C 53 4 8 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0N 6 A 1 I 0 30 08 61 61 00 92 0. 2 00 00 00 00 00 0 53 8 - - 1 81 - R 9 6 1 0 6 0 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 0 7 . T 1 3 2 1 1 _ S 1 3 - _ U D 3 _ N I 78 37 50 45 01 85 58 00 00 00 00 00 0C 9M L 3 5 7 2 1 . 9 0 0 0 0 0 0N 0N

           $    9       0 51     63    20         2    61   5. 5    00  00   00    00    00         0     0 7  2. 2        -    -       - 0. 2          5 9  6-            0     0      0-       1    7       1   t    1     1     1          0     7 "L   1  2 1

7 1 1 1 3 - 3 1 9 1 2 66 64 28 25 97 00 00 00 00 00 0C 8 1 8 9 7 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0N 7 8 30 58 66 1 5 4 63 9. 5 00 00 00 00 00 0 9 7 1 . 0. 4 1 5-0 8 9 9 1 0 8 0 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 _ 1 5 8 1 1 3 _ 3 4 1 2 A A 2 A A E 3 L _ L 3 L L T N A is A 4 2 T A 2 0 S 5 2 1 3 I T 2 2 3 1 2 2 3 G 4 G S 3 3 N S 3 3 O A N 1 N R S P E 2 S 4 4 N L P T T E N r4 R E 1 3. 1' H CH HH _ 1 H lH 2H 2H LH PH PH TH AH EH UH _ HC QC 3C 3C EC YC YC NC r. C 1 T C AC 0C EC MC M% JX E% E% R% T% T% I% d% S% L% 0% R% a% s yD* 2 . i <-

                                                                                                      *[  2 7   0% D8

j. i i

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• to CD C *

                                                            -4
                                                              - e
                                                                       *- O Nm O +        N *
                                                                                     =m OO O e 00 OO O -

OO O + OO 0 - OO O e OO OZ OO O = 9 b t* b O. O O. O O. O. O m O. *= c. N to. =3= E9. gO O. *- . g O. O O. O m == *= w O O O m N O CD O ED ** *a N

          *= m                                  b                                  W 1

M N@ N == (D m NO == T NO TW DO OO OO OO OO OO OO O

• b = 87
• g * == * (D
• N
• O
• O
• O
• O
• O
• O2 O
• W be *O O. O O. O. O m O. *= m. N (D. e p ag O.
• N. t% (9 O. O O. O O. O O. O O

m N N O b O 10 W *= *- *- ** *- O w m O O N 4 n ** b

    .O                                           t9 H                                                                                                                              00    OO Z                               me                       e4         NO                    OO      00      00     00      00 O             O (9 T. S. W. c.           T O.

(D in

• m cz) m. O
• O = 0
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• O m m *- * - * = +m OO O N. *= CD.g N .g 0. e CD. b O. O O. O O. O O. O
• O. O V m . (9

                                                                                                      *-      -      e       *-     O     O O      m         N       O            4           O          tfl        ti         *-

N O e- CD 4 m 1 N *- 6 b M t.n D D WN OW We We *T 00 mm OO OO 00 00 O

• OO O
• 00 OZ 00 O *

(D = b e b = m* -

• b
• O
• O
• O
• O
• 4 =m oO OO ED. - 4. - (D. N O. *g- O. *= 4. b O. O O. O O. O O. O. O m g to *

                                                                                                                             -      O     O h     m      (D        N       O            N           O          O          O          -       *=      e-     *-

N d - CD ED m A e b E 4: Z M O in NN 4D b (D m vO .- T NO bO OO OO OO OO OO OO OO tD a (9 * (D

• O
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• O
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• tD. *g= *4 O. **
• m
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        *   *-     (D                             N                                 T                                                      N N             *=                                                                                                                       1 C3                                           (D.

M so tD (D Nb b (D ev 6O (D m OO OO OO OO OO OO OO 4 t- OZ O e g 4 N= m

• O
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• O + O
• O
• O
• N is == is b =m O. O O. O m f9. e 69. e .g b. o g O. e
• g O. O O. O O. O O. O O.

O M m N N O ** O 4 m e- *= *- **

• O U e (D tD 4 N M *- 1 M CD.

M Z H M cD MN 4 (9 Nv O (D m- @m oO OO OO OO OO Ou m - **

• O - O - O
• O
• OZ O O O.

Z O + m* - 40 = m = 0

• OO OO OO O OO O 89 N t' 45 *O m" .-*- * 'l- CD. O O. '- O O. O e e O. O * *
• m O T *= w * - e O O g m O N O (D (9 W

e CD CD 4

                    *-                                                                                                                       I t-                                            CD.

A in tn O mv -m M- he O cD cD e (9 m 00 OO 00 OO OO 00 00 O O = 0

• N
• M * *-
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• O = 0
• OZ O
• O (* N f% t- O *b .m O. O OO O. O O. O O. O O. O. O g m . t'. N .g . O. *= . cD e

                                                                                                                       ==      ==    O      O 4      On     ED       N        O            N          O           T          O            -              -

N g ** 15 f* T g

• m 8 h (9 m

D em eo em* om ev mm OO 00 00 00 OO 00 00 Q

      ++            M
                    +- m. v

• C1
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• W m @N 60 O ** CD b om 00 00 00 00 O 00 CD = N. N b. s= t * *
• b O. O * * * * -

d On N N O O O (9 CD ** ** *= *= - O O e b (9 M N 4 1 (L.

                    =-                              (D A                                             M 4m -- b           mO mb                    O *-       We          mo        OO      00      00 O =

00 0

• 00 O
• 00 OZ 00 O =

4 e m* (7 e o e *- e w e *=

• O
• O e (D E9 N eN ts e O. ,- to 6 * (D O. O. O (D * *I m. O
• to O. O O. O O. C O. O O. O (n CD N O (D 0 (9 (D +- e == +- *= 0 Q

              *=     (D                              o                                M                                                      N
                     =                                                                                                                         I CD.

M e

                                                                                                -                                    N       <
                    =C                                         N          <           =C        W                                    (9 z
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                     <                                         4           N          N

• N m

                                                                                      ==        0.t     N       N       M             .O.

(A N *= t=3 m N, N M e w a m M M 2 ,t M O < Z *- Z = m a w N m

                                                                           >=                   w        Z       E      &       M     W       ==

4 Z .J (L b-wr or sr ur rr

                     -r       -r      Nr Nr sr ar ar >u                         .- r>u                   <r             <t u ou Wu            20 To ou Mu Mu wu                                                              Zu su wu i

l

                     .Tt M    7M       WH            WH        EM           D* M eM ** M                 7M MM           JM     OM     2M     *0 M Am. No. 2, (10/80)

__ _ __ _ __. . . _ - - . _ -- . - . . . . - - - - - _ . - __ . . . - = - _ - . . - . - - - 4 Tg -) LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 14 & 32, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 MH1432 SALA 198.585 202.373 206.126 209.677 213.795 217.583 4 %CH 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 dQINO32 2.707 2.792 2.880 2.973 3.074 3.171

                           %CH                      2.8          3.1              3.2               3.2                3.4            3.2

?' E32 0.627 0.622 0.618 0.615 0.613 0.611

                           %CH                  -1.3           -0.9             -0.6               -0.5               -0.3           -0.3 4

E32LA 3.659.146 3.649.787 3.645.151 3.642.255 3.643.093 3.645.570

                                                 -0.5           -0.3             -0.1              -0.1                0.0            0.1
                           %CH RELPNG1432          0.011          0.012            0.012            0.012               0.012        0.012
                           %CH                      1.4          1.4              1.4               1.4                1.4            1.4 TYPT1432LA          7.170          7.671            8.208            8.783               9.398       10.056 i                           %CH                      7.0          7.0              7.0               7.0                7.0            7.0 TYPTNGITLA        626.90         661.38          697.76            736.14              776.62       819.34                                                      l' l                                                                                                                       5.5            5.5
                           %CH                      5.5          5.5              5.5               5.5 Ir4TERSTATE14      1.000          1.000            1.000             1.000              1.000        1.000
                            %CH                     0.0          0.0              0.0               0.0                0.0            0.0 dDANS32             1.000         1.000             1.000            1.000              1.000         1.000
                            %CH                     0.0          0.0              0.0               0.0                0.0             0.0 ST Ef4P32           1.000         1.000             1.000            1.000               1.000        1.000
                            %CH                     0.0           0.0             0.0               0.0                 0.0            0.0 LAUREN32            1.000          1.000            1.000            1.000               1.000         1.000 i
                            %CH                      0.0          0.0              0.0               0.0                0.0            0.0

, 3, D DOw32 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 y %CH 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 , RECESS 10N32 0.000 0.000 0.000 C.000 0.000 0.000

             $*             %CH                       NC           NC               NC                NC                 NC             NC
           ' $2              SMH14325ALA     -20.000        -20.000        -20.000            -20.000             -20.000      -20.000

' 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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v.

46 Me ab Me b iD 00 00 00 Co af)

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CD 1 m v m i

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e= 49 m MT 00 00 00 00 M v b. m N m. 5 * (D

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c O. N b. (*) (D. C g 4D. O O. O O. O O. O O. O CD m ==

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                                                   ==  N                                       W O                                                    O.

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• O
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o. OW Ol b NW Ob OO OO 00 00 00 (D . N

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• Z

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                                                       *: M             ~3 M    net 4t         saa M    @M     3M 3M                  (Q M .e6 M Am. No. 2, (10/80)

48 O 99 Nm M (D N (D OO OO OO OO OO LD

• 10 * (D
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• O f* N *= m *= " *= *=

H N O W 7* M W O . U e v Mm (D m 4 tw (D (D OO OO OO OO OO Q S

• O a O
• O + O
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W g (N O. ** LD N

v. O "O

b eg O. O OO OO

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N O m ! < m M OO 00 4 om moN -m es

                         =          CD   =

ob M - OO O

• OO O =

00 0

• O
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           *-    W **      WN       4O         mO         OO        OO        OO    OO
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O N *= ED ** O CD N t/) N m 04 (D. m

      .A

• OO 00 00 00 00 O N m O. Mc o -m m t*a (D b e
• O
• O O 0
• z N O Ne mN vO CD O 00 00 00=*

00 O = * *1 *4 *

• N == *= ,= g= e e=

O O 9 O H N m N (f) m. O Z H Mm f% LD mb M ED OO OO OO OO

      **          t%        m

• O - - O O O. O - O
• O
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                                                                               *=    ==

b Dn th N *= *= == **

            ==    (D                             t'
         .        N                              m J                                          m En
      'A O                      Mm                  Om         OO        OO       00     00     00 g           cv v.      M +     e= m    e   1%

• O + 0
• O
• O = Z g- 00 00 00 00 00 A m . 4. N g v. Ol * .

H 4 mm N *= (D 4

                                                            ,=        ==       *      ==

m to 5% e* N O

                                                    =

H O U1 P O O < O < N _a J O O O m a e N N N m m 4 m O 4 tr =J < O O A. O .J er e-= > N N

       *1           NI        ZI      OT Nu Nu OT oI OI uI 30 oI zu zu du Ju II Iu ou                                                       3H     to H eo W h at       7M     wH wA eH a#

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

(' ~ .

I t i

' s i LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 22 & 23, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1978 26.632 29.800 31.674 34.291 36.878 39.567 42.150 44.610 MH22235ALA 23.345 24.166 7.3 6.5 5.8

                                                 't8.9           3.5                  10.2             11.9              6.3              8.3          7.5
                       .%CH 1.627            1.728'       1.834               1.927                         1.995          2.05v dCIND22                1.397           1.398               1.475             1.599 3.6             2. 7
                        %CH                         1.8          0.1                   5.5              8.4               1.7             6.2          6.1                 5.1 1.336            1.426            1.455            1.518        1.577               1.635                          1.683          1.724 JOINO23               1.256           1.270                                                                                                                                                     2.5 1.2           1.1                  5.1              6.8              2.0              4.3          3.9                 3.7                           2.9
                        %CH 0.899            0.915        0.938               0.959                         0.973           0.980 j                         E22                   0.910        'O.883                  0.874            0.898 0.1             1.8          2.5                 2.3                            1.5            0. 7
                         %CH                       -7.3         -2.9                  -1.1               2.8 1.310            1.367            1.371             1.383        1.391               1.396                         1.395          1.385 E23                    1.315          1.296                                                                                                                                                    -0.7
                                                                -1.4                    1.1              4.3              0.3             0.8          0.6                 0.4                          -0.1
+
                         %CH                        2.1 10.252.290        10.845.497      11.575.522      12.332.054         13.067.273              13.743.065           14..'37.134 E2223LA        8.089.485 8.688.751            9,280.744 58              6.7          6.5                 6.0                           5.2             4. 3
                         %CH                        7.2           7.4                   6.8            10.5 0.359            0.356            0.3G1             0.373        0.373               0.368                         0.366          0.364             ,

RELPO12223 0 400 0.369 -0.7

                                                                -7.8                  -2.8             -0.7               14              3.3         -0.1                -1.1                          -0.6
                         %CH                       19.0

' 2.700 3.011 3.271 3.509 3.778 4.054 TYPT2223LA 2.008 2.040 2.285 2.506 11.5 8.6 7.3 7.7 7. 3

                         %CH                       14.1           1.6                 12 0               9.7              7.7 6.370            7.033            7.476             8.069        8.777               9.523                        10.311         11.144 i                         wp10574                5 013          5.523 8.5                           8.3             8.1
                         %CH                       -4.0          10.2                  15.3             10.4              6.3              7.9          8.8 1.000           1.000             1.000        1.00 0              1.000                         1.000           1.000 UNCLA552223            1 000         1.000                 1.000 0.0                 0.0                           0.0             0.0 a                          %CH                       0.0           0.0                   0.0              0.0              0.0              0.0 0               0             0                   0                             0               0 AMH2223 SALA           1.540               0                     0                 0 NC              NC           NC                  NC                            NC              NC
                          %CH                                -100.0                      NC               NC p
          ?

1 eO 4 d 7O N 03 O v ) f*

 +                                                                                                                                                                                                                                e

o LT&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 22 6 23, SEASONALLY ADJUOTED (CONT'D) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 52.955 55.996 51.115 62.296 65.474 68.675 72.056 75.628 MH 22235 A LA 47.251 50.026 4.9 4.9 5.0

   %CH                   5.9          5.9          5.9          5.7            5.6         5.4          5.1 2.560        2.622      2.689       2.762 JQ1N022            2.113        2.182        2.259         2.340         2.417       2.492 2.7 3.3          3.5          3.6            3.3         3.1          2.7          2.4        2.5
   %CH                   3.1 1.816                      1.926         1.984        2.042       2.097        2.149      2.205       2.264 JOIND23            1.769                      1.870 2.6         2.7
   %CH                   2.6          2.7          2.9          3.0            3.0         2.9          2.7          2.5 1.000        1.009         1.018        1.025       1.030        1.033      1.036       1.039 E22                0.986        0.992                                                                                                    0.3 0.6          0.7          0.8          0.9            0.8         u.7          0.5          0.3        0.2
   %CH 1.357        1.349         1.342        1.334       1.324        1.311      1.288       1.286 E23                1.375        1.365                                                                                                  -0.9
                        -0.7         -0.7         -0.6         -0.6          -0.5         -0.6         -0.8         -1.0      -1.0
   %CH E2223LA       14.929.798   15.528.297   16.138.679   16,768.523     17.39G.816  18.019.447   18.620.667   19.190.535 19.767.945 20.360.067 3.7         3.6          3.3          3.1        3.0         3.0
   %CH                   4.1          4.0          3.9          3 . 9_

0.362 0.364 0.365 0.367 0.369 0.371 0.372 RELPO12223 0.361 L.360 0.360 0.5 0.5 0.5

   %CH                  -0.8         -0.4          0.2          0.4            0.5         0.5        , 0.5 5.740        6.142       6.572        7.032      7.524       8.051 TYPT2223LA         4.343        4.663         5.008        5.365 7.0         7.0          7.0          7.0        7.0         7.0
   %CH                   7.1          7.4          7.4           7.1 WPIO574           12.028       12.963        13.896       14.820        15.783       16.809      17.902       13.065     20.305      21.624 6.6            6.5          6.5         6.5          6.5        6.5         6.5
   %CH                    7.9         7.8           7.2 1.000       1.000         1.000     1.000       1.000 UNCLASS2223         1.000        1.000        1.000        1.000         1.000 0.0 0.0          0.0           0.0          0.0           0.0          0.0         0.0          0.0        0.0
   %CH 0           0            0            0            0         0           0 SMH2223 SALA             0            0            0 NC            NC           NC           NC           NC          NC         NC          NC
   %CH                     NC          NC 2
~

m O O O

4 t k - i l 1  ! I I s LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSDiPTION IN SICS 22 & 23, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1998 79.454 83.604 87.981 92.538 97.302 102.235 MH22235ALA 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2

                                                 %CH 2.846                2.946          3.052           3.161              3.274                  3.385 UQIf4D22                                                                                      3.6                   3.4 3.1                   3.5            3.6            3.6
                                                 %CH 2.328                2.309         2.474           2.550              2.629                  2.708 JQ1NO23                                                                                       3.1                   3.0 2.8                   3.0             3.1           3.1
                                                 %CH 1.044                1.053          1.064           1.076              1.088                  1.100 E22                                                                                            1.1                   1.1 0.5                   0.0              1.0          1.1
                                                 %CH 1.232 1.275                1.266          1.258           1.250              1.241 E23                                                                      -0.7               -0.7                   -0.7
                                                 %CH                  -0.9                 -0.7           -0.6 E2223LA       20.983.288 21.657.467 22.370.255              3.3 23.103.885 3.3 23.859.467   3.3 24.629.905        3.2

, %CH 3.1 3.2 0.374 0.376 0.378 0.379 0.381 0.383 RELP012223 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 l %CH l 8.614 9.217 9.863 10.553 11.292 12.082 TYPT2223LA 7.0 7.0 7.CH 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 24.527 26.121 27.819 29.627 31.553 n'P10574 23.030 6.5 6.5 6.5 l %CH 6.5 6.5 6.5 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 UNCLAS$2223 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

                                                  %CH 1

0 0 0 0 0 p &MH2223 SALA 0 NC NC NC NC NC 9 %CH NC e  ! Z  ! O e N

                                            =

O i 03 O

                                                                                                                                                                                                            >=8

U LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 24, 25, & 26, SEASCNALLY ADJUSTED 1982 1983 1984 1995 1986 1978 1979 1980 19P1 1,238.622 1.297.873 1,343.257 MH242526 SALA 1.044.781 987.650 1.026.059 1,077.044 1.101,010 1.164.768 4.8 3.5

                                            -5.5           3.9           5.0          2.2           5.8          6.3
  %CH                           7.0 1.511        1.512          1.629        1.731        1.776         1.803 J0lN024                   1.379          1.317       1.429 7.7          6.3          2.6           1.5 3.1         -4.5           0.5           5.7          0.1
  %CH 1.729        1.771          1.878       2.000         2.111        2.208 dQ1ND25                   1.556          1.584        1.642                                                     6.5          5.6           4.6 10.4            1.8          3.7           5.3          2.4            6.0
  %CH 1.720        1.816         1.902        1.979 JQIND26                    1.442         1.446       1.506          1.587        1.630 4.7           4.1 0.3          4.2           5.4          2.7            5.5          5.6
  %CH                           4.8 0.793        0.785          0.797        0.807         0.804        0.798 E24                        0.749         0.731        0.741                                                     1.3         -0.4          -0.7
                                             -2.4           1.4          7.1         -1.0            1.5
  %CH                          16.6 0.508          0.524        0.544         0.562        0.578 E25                        0.485         0.481        0.488         0.505                                                                  2.7
                              -4.9           -1.0           1.6          3.5           0.7           3.1          3.8           3.4
  %CH 0.717        0.729         0.739        0.74G E26                       0.701         0.685        0.687         0.703        0.707 1.0 0.4          -2.3          0.4           2.3           0.5           1.4           1.8          1.3
  %CH 22,845.416 22,577.880 22,136.896 22.810.467 22.705.921               22,967.814 23,545.432 23.875.045 24,011.303 E242526LA                                                                         -0.5             1.2          2.5          1.4           0.6
   %CH                           0.8         -1.2         -2.0            3.0 C.008          0.000        0.000         0.008        0.008 RELPNG242526              0.011         0.008        0.000         0.008                                                                   1.4
                                                                                     -2.5            2.0           0.6          0.4 ECH                         44.1        -22.2          -0.7          -1.3 1.027         1.968         2.195        2.384         2.558        2.754 TYPT242526LA              1.465          1.487       1.666                                                                   7.3           7.7 9.7          7.7          11.5           8.6
   %CH                         12.9            1.5        12.0 198.05        220.20       243.26         265.79       286.97        306.60       325.64 TYPTNGITLA               165.99        175.55                                                                   8.0          6.8           6.2 5.8        12.8          11.2          10.5            9.3
   %CH                         -5.7 0.228         0.232         0.231          0.239        0.242        0.241         0.242 RELPWA242526              0.231          0.219 1.0          0.0           0.3
   %CH                           3.0         -4.8           4.0           1.5        -0.2             3.4 7.890        B.516          9.178        9.871       10.593       11.368 AHEM 9LA                  6.353          6.776        7.297                                                                                7.3 9.6           6.7          7.7           8.1          7.9            7.8          7.5           7.3
   %CH 1.000         1.000        1.000          1.000        1.000         1.000        1.000 UNCLASS24                  1.000         1.000                                                                                             0.0
>                                0.0           0.0          0.0           0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0           0.0 B   %CH e

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Z DV711242526 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC e %CH 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 DV712242526 0.000 0.000 NC NC NC NC NC NC NC

    %CH                           NC            NC w                                                                                                                    433            0             0 35.071          6.207        5.052         3,897        2.743          1,588 Q

os

    &f.iH242526S A L A
    %CH                                     -82.3        -18.6         -22.9        -29.6          -42.1        -72.7       -100.0              NC S

S - - 9 9 .

bh ]

                                     '                                                                               O                                                                         J LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 24, 25 & 26, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D)

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 MH242526 SALA 1.368,152 1.398.005 1.432.006 1.466.846 1.501.797 1.533.668 1.557.167 1.579.543 1.600.C93 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.3

                             %CH JQlN024                             1.822          1.862          1.898          1.931         1.958          1.976          1.990             2.001         2.017 2.2            1.9            t.7           1.4            0.9            0.7                0.6           0.8 l                             %CH                                    1.0 JOINO25                             2.289          2.367          2.446          2.525         2.605          2.684         2.761              2.836         2.909 3.6            3.4            3.3            3.3           3.1            3.0            2.9                2.7           2.G
                             %CH JOIND26                             2.042          2.107          2.177          2.251         2.326          2.400          2.474              2.545         2.614 tCH                                    3.2            3.2            3.4            3.4           3.3            3.2            3.1                2.9           2.7 E24                                 0.792          0.787          0.781          0.772         0.761          0.749          0.744              0.737         0.731'
                                                                   -0.7           -0.6          -0.8           -1.2          -1.4            -1.6           -0.6               -1.0         -0.8
                             %CH E25                                 0.589          0.599          0.608          0.617         0.625          0.633          0.640              0.646         0.652
                             ?CH                                    1.9            1.7             1.5            1.4          1.4             1.2            1.1               1.0           0.9 E .' G                              0.750          0.753          0.756          0.760         0.764          0.767          0.770              0.773         0.774 0.5            0.4            0.5            0.5           0.5            0.4            0.4                0.3           0.2
                             *CH E242526LA           23.935.204              23.841.646     23.772.2.18    23.690.326 23.602.838 23.472.285 23,312.489 23.132.727 22.938.602
                                                                   -0.3           -0.4           -0.3           -0.3          -0.4           -0.6           -0.7               -0.8          -0.8
                             %CH 1

RELPNG242526 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 "

                              %CH                                    1.1            1.1            1.5            1.8           1.6             1.4           1.4                1.4           1.4 f)PT242526LA                       2.955          3.166          3.399          3.651         3.911          4.184          4.477              4.791         5.13 6
                              %CH                                    7.3           7.1             7.4            7.4           7.1            7.0            7.0                7.0           7.0 T v PTrlOI T L A                  345.51         366.15         387.29         408.63        430.96         454.G6         479.67             506.05        533.88 6.1            6.C            5.8            5.5           5.5            5.5            5.5                5.5           5.5
                              *CH RELPwA242526                        0.242          0.241         0.241          0.241         0.240           0.239          0.237              0.236        0.235
                                                                   -0.1           -0.3           -0.1           -0.1          -0.4           -0.5           -0.5               -0.5          -0.5
                              %CH
                         >    AHEM 3LA                          12.211         13.120         14.098         15.152        16.294         17.329         18.057             20.2P3        21.809 7.4            7.4            7.4            7.5           7.5              7.6          7.6                i.6           7.5
                       ,B     %CH U:. CLASS 24                        1.000          1.000          1.000          1.000         1.000          1.000          1.000              1.000         1.000 e

[  ?.C H 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

                      =

to Dv711242526 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 hC NC NC NC N f' NC NC NC NC m iCH 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00J 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Ci712242526 0.000 NC NC NC

                               *CH
                                .                                      NC            NC              NC            NC            NC               NC 0              0              0              0             0               0              0                 0             0 s/n242526 SALA                                                                                                                                     NC            NC NC            NC              NC            NC            NC               NC            NC                                  {
;                              MH

1.P&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 24, 25 f, 26, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1995 1,691,942 1,723,119 1,754,939 1,788,083 1,819,872 MH242526 SALA 1,619,278 1,638,974 1,662,763 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8

   %CH 2.147         2.193        2.241           2.295          2.340 JQ1ND24                   2.037          2.063         2.101 2.0 2.1           2.2             2.4
   %CH                           1.0           1.3           1.8           2.2 3.063         3.146         3.237        3.330         3.426           3.525         3.625 J0lND25                    2.985                                                                                   2.9            2.8 2.6           2.6           2.7           2.9          2.9           2.9
   %CH 2.953        3.054         3.158           3.265          3.374 JOINO26                    2.683         2.769         2.856 3.4             3.4            3.3 2.9           3.0           3.2           3.4          3.4
   %CH 0.737         0.T46         0.759        0.773         0.788           0.004          0.819 E24                        0.732                                                                                   2.0            1.9
   %CH                           0.1           0.7           1.3           1.7          1.8           1.9 0.664         0.670         0.677        0.684         0.691           0.699          0.707 E25                        0.658                                                                                                  1.1 0.9           0.9           0.9           1.0          1.1           1.1             1.1
   %CH 0.785        0.789         0.793           0.798          0.802 E26                       0.776         0.778         0.78t 0.5             0.5            0.5 0.2           0.3           0.4           0.5          0.5
   %CH 22,473.823 E242526LA           22,770.336 22,630.459 22,535.406 22,496.476 22,481.425 22,472.099             0.0 22,473.8350.0            0.0
                                -0.7          -0.6          -0.4          -0.2         -0.1
    %CH 0.010         0.010        0.010         0.010           0.011          0.011 RELPNG242526              0.010         0.010                                                                      1.4            1.4 1.4           1.4           1.4
    .;C H                         1.4           1.4           1.4 6.280         6.719        7.190         7.693           8.231          8.808 TYPT242526LA              5.485         5.869                                                                     7.0            7.0 7.0           7.0           7.0           7.0           7.0          7.0
    %CH 661.38        697.76        736.14          776.62         819.34 TYPTNGITLA               563.24        594.22        626.90 5.5             5.5           5.5 5.5          5.5            5.5          5.5           5.5
    %CH 0.233          0.233        0.232        0.232         0.231            0.231         0.230 RELPWA242526              0.234                                                                  -0.2            -0.2           -0.2
                                -0.4          -0.3          -0.3          -0.2         -0.2
    %CH 25.162        26.992        28,940       31.023          J.257         35.660         38.250 AH E M'A LA             23.435                                                      7.2           7.2             7.2            7.3
    %CH                           7.5           7.4           7.3           7.2 1.000         1.000         1.000        1.000         1.000           1.000          1.000 UNCLASS24                 1.000                                                                                   0.0            0.0 0.0           0.0           0.0          0.0           0.0
     %CH                          0.0 0.000         0.000         0.000        0.000         0.000           0.000          0.000
>    DV711242526               0.000 NC            NC           NC            NC              NC             NC XCH                           NC            NC

.B 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 DV712242526 0.000 0.000 0.000 [ NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC

• %CH N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

= af.1H242526S AL A NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC , m %CH o 3O O O

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l t ( J' LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 33 & 34, EXCEPT KAISER ALUMINUM, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1978 1979 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 MH3334XKASALA 240.690 264.149 401.234 806.207 808.576 817.212 829.820 847.836 866.793 882.979

   %CH                   -6.0                9.7      51.9     100.9        0.3        1.1       1.5     2.2        2.2       1.9 J0lND33              1.179           1.205        1.236     1.296      1.2G5     1.324     1.414    1.499      1.547     1.607
   %CH                    6.8                2.2       2.6       4.9       -2.4       4.6        6.8     6.0        4.5       2.6 E33                  1.204           1.210        1.220     1.227      1.193     1.194     1.214    1.240      1.258     1.261    i
   %CH                    0.1                0.5       0.8       0.5       -2.8       0.1        1.7     2.1         1.5      0.2    '

E33LA 4.438.942 4.679.000 4.829.190 5.050.787 5.202.349 5.347.349 5.539.240 5.761.094 5.983.755 6.180.123

   %CH                    6.0                5.4       3.2       4.6        3.0       2.8        3.6     4.0        3.9       3.3 JQIND34              1.425           1.424        1.476     1.533      1.528     1.600     1.701    1.795      1.874     1.932
   %CH                    8.8                0.0       3.7       3.9       -0.3       4.7        6.3     5.5        4.4       3.1 E34                  1.650           1.655        1.669     1.700      1.G81     1.702     1.733    1.761      1.793     1.809
   %CH                   13.7                0.3       0.8       1.8       -1.1        1.2       1.8      1.6        1.9      0.8 E34NSLA              7.251           7.463        7.532     7.792      7.840     7.998     8.331-   8.731      9.113     9.417
   %CH                    2.9                29        0.9       3.4        0.6        2.0       4.2     4.8        4.4       3.3 RELPOI3334XKA        0.291           0.268        0.261     0.259      0.262     0.271     0.271    0.268      0.266     0.264
   %CH                   17.7            -7.8         -2.8      -0.7         1.4       3.3     -0.1     -1.1       -0.6      -0.7 TYPT3334XKALA        1.459           1.481        1.659     1.819      1.960     2.186     2.374    2.548      2.743     2.943
   %CH                   12.9                1.5      12.0       9.7        7.7      11.5        8.6     7.3        7.7        7.3 WP10574              5.013           5.523        6.370     7.033      7.476     8.0G9     8.777    9.523     10.311    11.144
   %CH                   -4.0             10.2        15.3      10.4        6.3        7.9       8.8     8.5        8.3        8.1 DISAN33              0.000           0.000        0.000     0.000      0.000     0.000     0.000    0.000      0.000     0.000
   %CH                       NC               NC         NC        NC         NC        NC        NC       NC         NC        NC
>  UNCLASS34            1.000           1.000        1.000     1.000      1.000     1.000     1.000    1.000      1.000     1.000

,D %CH 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 [ &MH?334XKASALA 19.243 22.435 148.261 534.087 529.913 525.739 521.565 520.000 520.000 520.000 e %CH 16.6 560.9 260.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N = 0 N 00 8 5

b LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 33 & 34, EXCEPT KAISER ALlNINUM. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 MH3334KKASALA 898.748 914.795 931.231 946.723 961.685 976.630 991.040 1.006.261 1.020.041 1.035.403

  %CH                         1.8         1.8        1.8      1.7        1.6       1.6        1.5        1.4        1.5        1.5 00!ND33                   1.645      1.688      1.738     1.788      1.836     1.882     1.923      1.961      2.003      2.048
  %CH                         2.4        2.6        3.0       2.9        2.6       2.5       2.2         2.0        2.1       2.3 E33                       1.259      1.258      1.257     1.258      1.257     1.255     1.251      1.244      1.238      1.233
  %CH                        -0.1       -0.1       -0.1       0.1       -0.1      -0.2      -0.3       -0.5       -0.5       -0.4 E33LA                6.349.478   6.504.539  6.654.140 6.801.296 6.942.576 7.078.076 7.206.443 7.325.874 7.440.194 7.553.641  1.5
  %CH                         2.7        2.4        2.3       2.2        2.1       2.0        1.8        1.7        1.6 JyIND34                   1.991      2.049      2.109     2.167      2.221     2.274     2.322      2.368      2.417      2.468
  %CH                         3.1         2.9       2.9       2.8        2.5       2.4        2.1        2.0        2.1       2.1 E34                       1.824      1.837      1.848     1.857      1.863     1.865     1.864      1.859      1.854      1.850
  %CH                         0.9         0.7        0.S      0.5        0.3       0.1      -0.1       -0.3       -0.3       -0.2 E34NSLA                   9.682      9.933     10.181    10.431     10.G69    10.837    11.110     11.304     11.499     11.703
  %CH                         2.8         2.6        2.5      2.5        2.3       2.1        2.0        1.8        1.7        1.8 RELPO!3334XKA             0.262      0.261      0.262     0.263      0.264     0.265     0.267      0.268      0.269      0.270
  %CH                        -0.8       -0.4         0.2      0.4        0.5       0.5        0.5        0.5       0.5        0.5 TYPT3334KKALA             3.153      3.385      3.636     3.895      4.167     4.459     4.771      5.105      5.462      5.845
  %CH                         7.1         7.4        7.4      7.1        7.0       7.0        7.0        7.0        7.0       7.0 MPIO574                  12.028     12.963     13.896    14.820     15.783    16.009    17.902     19.065     20.305     21.624
  %CH                         7.9         7.8        7.2      6.6        6.5       6.5        6.5        6.5        6.5       6.5 DIBAN33                   0.000      0.000      0.000     0.000      0.000     0.000     0.000      0.000      0.000      0.000
  %CH                           NC         NC         NC        NC         NC        NC        NC         NC         NC         NC UNCLASS34                 1.000      1.000      1.000     1.000      1.000     1.000     1.000      1.000      1.000      1.000
  %CH                         0.0         0.0        0.0      0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0       0.0
  &Y.H3334X K AS A L A    520.000    520.000    520.000   520.000    520.000   520.000   520.000    520.000    520.000    520.000
  %CH                         0.0         0.0        0.0      0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0       0.0 2

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LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 33 & 34, 4 EXCEPT KAISER ALUMINUM, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) i 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 WH3334XKASALA 1,051,674 1,069.257 1.087.449 1,105.989 1,125.064 1,144.501

      %CH                      1.G            1.7         1.7       1*. 7         1.7            1.7 J0lND33               2.098         2.156        2.217      2.277        2.337          2.399 -
      %CH                      2.4           2.8         2.8        2.7          2.7             2.6 E33                    1.229        1.228        1.227      1.226        1.225          1.223
      %CM                     -0.3         -0.1          0.0       -0.1         -0.1           -0.1 E33LA          7,668.931        7,789.218    7,914.213  8,041.448   8.169.436 8,297.3G9
      %CH                      1.5            1.6         1.6       1.6           1.6            1.6 i

! JQINO34 2.524 2.587 2.652 2.716 2.781 2.845

      %CH                      2.3           2.5         2.5        2.4          2.4             2.3 E34                    1.648        1.850        1.852      1.854        1.855          1.855
      %CH                     -0.1            0.1        0.1        0.1          0.1            0.0 E34NSLA           11.921           12.160       12.434     12.707       12.982         13.258
      %CH                      1.9            2.1        2.2        2.2          2.2             2.1 RELPO13334XKA          0.272        0.273        0.274      0.275        0.277          0.278
      %CH                      0.5            0.5        0.5        0.5          0.5             0.5 TYPT3334XKALA          6.254        6.692        7.160      7.661        8.197          8.771-7CH                      7.0            7.0        7.0        7.0          7.0             7.0 ~

i 4 WP 0574 23.030 24.527 26.121 27.819 29.627 31.553

      %CH                      6.5            6.5        6.5        6.5          6.5             6.5 i      DIBAN33                0.C00        0.000        0.000      0.000        0.000          0.000
      %CH                       NC              NC         NC         NC           NC               NC

[ UNCLASS34 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

      %CH                      0.0-           0.0         0.0       0.0          0.0             0.0 g

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   *  &MH3334XKASALA   520.000          520.000      520.000    520.000      520.000        520,000 N %CH                      0.0             0.0        0.0       0.0          0.0             0.0 l
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LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSLMPTION IN SICS 35, 36 6 37. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 VH 353637 5 A LA 229.996 234.558 247.140 262.918 280.555 308.276 336.617 363.779 391.636

   %CH                     16.7           2.0          5.4          6.4         6.7          9.9         9.2           8.1          7.7 J01%C37                1.298         1.313        1.345        1.387       1.382        1.466       1.567        1.6 58        1.730
   %CH                      7.0           1.2          2.4          3.1        -0.4          6.1         6.9           5.8          4.8 E37                    1.948         1.957        1.961        1.970       1.891        1.879       1.909        1 .9 54       1.994
   %CH                      8.1           0.5          0.2          0.4        -4.0         -0.6          1.6          2.4          2.0 E353637LA        20.708.290 21.657.003      22.415.842   23.336.547 24.104.702    24.961. E20 26.052.509 27.353.751      28.786.986
   %CH                      6.9           4.6          3.5          4.1         3.3          3.6         4.4           5.0          5.2 BETSY37                1.000         1.000        1.000        1.000       1.000        1.000       1.000        1.000         1.000
   %CH                      0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0         0.0          0.0         0.0           0.0          0.0 UNCLASS353637          1.000         1.000        1.000        1.000       1.000        1.000       1.000        1.000         1.000
   %CH                      0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0         0.0          0.0         0.0           0.0          0.0 8:H3536375ALA        22.271        16.000       16.000       16.000      16.000       16.000      16.000       16.000        16.000
   %CH                                  -28.2           0.0         0.0         0.0          0.0         0.0           0.0          0.0 1987          1988         1989         1990        1991         1992        1993         1994          1995 MH3536375ALA        419.218       449.450      481.956      516.838     553.002      591.577     631.891      6'2.943       715.997
    %CH                      7.0          7.2           7.2          7.2         7.1         6.9          6.8          6.5          6.4 J01NO37               1.793         1.850        1.911        1.978       2.046        2.111       2.176        2.233         2.287
    %CH                      3.2           3.1          3.3          3.5         3.5          3.1         3.1          2.6           2.4 E37                   2.013         2.023        2.032        2.043       2.055        2.063       2.069        2.070         2.064
    %CH                      1.0           0.5          0.5          0.6         0.6          0.4         0.3           0.0        -0.3 E353637LA       30,251.874    31.701.657   33.158.023   34.647.006 36.178.566 37.732.526 39.307.216       40.888.023 42.450.877
    %CH                      5.1           4.8          4.6          4.5         4.4          4.3         4.2           4.0          3.0 BE1SV37               1.000         1.000        1.000        1.000       1.000        1.000       1.000        1.000         1.000
    %CH                      C.0           0.0          0.0          0.0         0.0          0.0         0.0           0.0          0.0 UNCLASS353637         1.000         1.000        1.000        1.000      ,1.000        1.000       1.000        1.000         1.000
    %CH                      0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0         0.0          0.0         0.0           0.0          0.0 4  SMH3536375ALA        16.000        16.000       16.000       16.000      16.000       16.000      16.000       16.000        16.000
.D  %CH                      0.0           0.0          0.0          0.0         0.0          0.0         0.0           0.0          0.0 2

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v' i LP&L STREETLIGHTING TOTAL CONSUMPTION 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 pHSLTLA 87.705 88.10: 91.697 94.839 97.768 100.604 103.419 106.260 109.151 112.097 115.088 118.115 121.172

         %CH                       95       0.5        4.1     3.4      3.1       2.9       2.8     2.7               2.7        2.7    2.7      2.6      2.6 CURTLA              416.830 433.245      443.949 455.023 466.357 477.892 489.716 501.861
        %CH 514.304 526.930 539.653 552.448 565.30s 6.9      3.9       2.5      2.5       2.5      2.5       2.5     2.5               2.5        2.5    2.4      2.4      2.3 8ETSYSL                0.000   0.000      0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000      0.000   0.000          0.000         0.000  0.000    0.000    0.000
        %CH                         NC       NC         NC      NC        NC       NC        NC      NC                NC         NC     NC       NC         NC ACCTNG714SL             0.000   0.000      0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000      0.000   0.000          0.000         0.000  0.000    0.000    0.000
        %CH                         NC       NC         NC      NC        NC       NC        NC      NC                NC         NC     NC       NC         NC ACCING721SL             0.000   0.000      0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000      0.000   0.000          0.000         0.000  0.000    0.000    0.000
        %CH                         NC       NC         NC      NC        NC       NC        NC      NC                NC         NC     NC       NC         NC 1991    1992       1993     1994     1995     1996       1997    1998            1999         2000   2001     2002     2003 f.tH 5 L T L A       124.254 127.360 130.492 133.653        136.841  140.051    143.277 146.518    149.779 153.065 156.384           159.744  163.155
        %CH                        2.5      2.5       2.5-     2.4      2.4      2.3        2.3     2.3               2.2        2.2    2.2      2.1      2.1 CURTLA
        %CH 578.219 2.3 591.214 2.2 604.309 2.1 617.505 2.2 630.776 644.067 657.376 670.735 684.180 697.752 711.482 725.409 739.576 2.1      2.1        2.1     2.0               2.0        2.0    2.0      2.0      2.0
                                                ~

BETSYSL 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

        %CH                         NC       NC         NC      NC        NC       NC        NC      NC                NC         NC     NC       NC         NC ACCTNG714SL              0.000   0.000      0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000      0.000   0.000          0.000       .0.000   0.000    0.000    0.000
        %CH                         NC       NC         NC      NC        NC       NC        NC      NC                NC         NC     NC       NC         NC ACCTNG721SL              0.000   0.000      0.000    0.000    0.000    0.000      0.000   0.000        -0.000          0.000  0.000    0.000    0.000
        %CH                         NC       NC         NC      NC        NC       NC        NC      NC                NC         NC     NC       NC         NC 2

e w

     =

o 1 3 Os N

LP&L CO-OPERATIVE TOTAL CONSUMPTION, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1.313.691 883.031 0 0 0 0 0 PHaCSALA 1.200.099 0 0 0 NC

  %CH                  10.5           8.7         -48.0      -100.0            NC            NC           NC           NC            NC             NC MHRTSALA       5.861.890    6.452.577       6.799.264 7.211.017      7.658.693 0.079.946 P.524.988           9.036.141    9.543.856 10.060.631         10.576.862
  %CH                   9.9          10.1            5.4        6.1          6.2           5.5          5.5           6.0           5.6            5.4            5.1 MHNMSALA       3.677.186 4.052.142          4.352.783 4.713.990 5.200.068 5.424.429 5.673.388                5.943.167    6.209.445      6.459.170      6.696.404
  %CH                  13 9          10.2            7.4        8.3         10.3           4.3          4.6           4.8           4.5            4.0            3.7 8MHWCSALA          11.310              0             0           0            0             0            0            0             0              0              0
  %CH                             -100.0              NC          NC           NC            NC           NC           NC            NC             NC             NC 1989           1990            1991         1992          1993           1994           1995          1996           1997           1998 MHWCSALA                  0               0              0            0             0              0             0              0              0              0
  %CH                      NC              NC             NC           NC            NC             NC            NC             NC             NC             NC WHRTSALA       11.086.599    11.593.574       12.118.339 12.660.437      13.214.470     13.782.217    14.361.816     14.942.510     15.533.049     16.130.312
  %CH                     4.8            4.6             4.5          4.5           4.4            4.3           4.2            4.0            4.0            3.8 MHNMSALA        6.924.715     7.151.657        7.382.830    7.610.695     7.833.849      8.053.161      8.263.031     8.452.821       8.647.138      8.844.423
  %CH                     3.4            3.3             3.2          3.1           2.9            2.8           2.6            2.3            2.3            2.3
  &MHWCSALA                 0               0              0            0             0              0             0              0              0              0
  %CH                      NC              NC             NC           NC            NC             NC            NC             NC             NC             NC 1999          2000            2001         2002           2003 h*.H WCS A L A            0               0              0            0             0
  %CH                      NC              NC             NC           NC            NC MHRTSALA       16.744.285    17.381.442       18.041.408   18.730.084 19.451.631
  %CH                     3.8            3.8             3.8          3.8           3.9 MHNMSALA        9.052.037     ti.272.604       9.506.204    9.756.797    10.022.842
  %CH                     2.3            2.4             2.5          2.6           2.7
> auHWCSALA                 0               0              0            0             0

.U %CH NC NC NC NC NC 2 e w = O b S O O O

s LP&L MUNICIPAL TOTAL CONSUMPTION, EXCEPT MINDEN & DIERGENCY SALES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1935 1986 1987

                           '"H:.1T L EMS A LA 125.293           130.920         136.675     143.204                150.089      156.522        163.149       169.832        175.958                182.076
                           %CH                                     4.6        4.5             4.4                   4.0          4.8           4.3           4.2           4.1              3.6                   3.5 MHRTSALA                   5.861.890 6.452.577               6.799.264 7.211.017               7.658.693     8.079.946 8.524.988 9.036.141              9.543.856           10.060.631
                           %CH                                     9.9       10.1             5.4                   6.1          6.2           5.5           5.5           6.0              5.6                   5.4
                            &?.*HM T L E M S A L A       -2.963            -5.609          -4.565      -3.522                 -2.478        -1.435          -391              0               0                     0 XCH                                             -89.3            18.6                 22.9          29.6          42.1          72.7         100.0               NC                    NC 1988              1989             1990                   1991           1992            1993          199/             1995                 1996            1997 MHMTLEMSALA                    188,079           193.90G          199.600                205.418        211.329         217.278       223.284          229.326              235.294         241.281
                           %CH                                      3.3          3.1              2.9                    2.9            29              2.8            2.8             2.7                    2.6           2.5 MHRTSALA                   10.576.862         11.086.599       11.593.574   12.118.339              12.6GO.437     13.214.470     13.782.217      14.361.816       14.942.510            15.533.049
                           %CH                                      5.1          4.8              4.6                    4.5            4.5             4.4            4.3             4.2                    4.0           4.0 SL'HMT LEMS A L A                           0              0             0                      0              0               0              0                0                     0             0
                           %CH                                       NC           NC               NC                     NC             NC              NC             NC               NC                    NC            NC 1

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 j MH'.1T L EMS A L A 247.254 253.314 259.521 265.8G6 272.400 279.157

                           %CH                                      2.5          2.5              2.5                    2.4            2.5             2.5 l

i p. MHRTSALA 16.130.312 16,744.285 17.381.442 18.041.408 18.730.084 19.451.631

!                       B   %CH                                     3.8          3.8              3.8                    3.8            3.8             3.9
}                       21  aMHMTLEMSALA                               0              0             0                      0              0               0

, .O %CH NC NC NC NC NC NC w i = 1 51 1 00 8

 ;                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5;

71 ) t j l 1 l l i l l l 4 , l ENERGY MODEL REGRESSION RESULTS AND PLOTS OF FITTED VS. ACTUAL I i I l l l t Am. No. 2, (10/80)

74 l LP&L RESIDENT!/'. TOTAL CUSTOMERS OR0! NARY LEA $7 SQUARES QUARTERLY (1960:2 TO '1977:4) 71 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: CURTLA-CURTLA\1 COEFFICIENT STO. ERROR T-STAT INDEPE.40ENT VARIABLE

1) 2034.72 1049 1.939 RYPOPNEW

2) -241.960 135.4 -1.787 RYPOPOLO

3) 4756.56 1826 2.605 NR2189LPLCO

4) -0.0233419 0.01171 -1.993 CURTLA\1

5) -1689.91 528.7 -3.196 BETQ54RES G) 4532.91 534.6 8.479 BUR 664RES

7) -1820.70 538.2 -3.383 CAM 694RES

0) -1428.21 377.0 -3.785 HOU704RES

9) 1156.01 348.9 3.313 Nw722RES

10) 4272.97 536.0 7.972 LAK764RES

11) 2999.26 550.1 5.452 THI771RES

12) -262.677 161.1 -1.631 SEASONQ1

13) G66.737 153.3 4.350 SEASONQ3 R-BAR SOUARED: 0.8100 (RELATIVE TO Y=0, RBSQ: 0.9672)

DUR0!N-WATSON STATISTIC: 1.3475 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 517.4 NORMALIZED: 0.1989 WHERE: DET654RES HURRICANE BETSY CAUSES CUSTOMER LOSS (19G5:4) DUR664RES BURAL,LA UTILITY PURCHASED BY LP&L (1966:4) CAM 694RES HURRICANE CAMILLE CAUSES CUSTOMER LOSS (19G9:4) CURTLA LP&L RES10ENTIAL TOTAL CUSTOMERS HOU704RES L0w H0us!NG STARTS 1970:4- 1971: 1 LAK764RES LAKE PROV10ENCE.LA UTILITY PURCHASED BY LP&L (1976:4) NR218@LPLCD RESIDENT POPULATION, 21 YEARS & OVER i

                                             - L.P.a L. SERVICE AREA                                        I NW722RES                          INCLUSION OF NIGHTWATCHMEN INTO CUSTOMER COUNT +4000 (1972:2-4)

RYP9PNEW REAL PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA - REVISED 1971:1 RYPOPOLD REAL PERSONAL INCOME PER CAAITA SEASONQ1 SEASONAL QUALITATIVE VARIABLE FOR 157 QUA9fER SEASONQ3 SEASONAL QUALITATIVE VARIABLE FOR 3RD l QUARTER THI771RES THIDODEAUX,LA UTILITY PURCHASED BY LP&L (1977:1) l l l Am. No. 2, (10/80) l

75 PLDT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTSt CURTLA j DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES

, f 1960:2 211.215 211.674

• 1960:3 214.384 213.905
• 1960:4 215.97G 216.329
• 1961:1 216.811 217.661
• 1961:2 218.04G 210.790
• 1961:3 220.579 220 G70
• 1961:4 222.587 222.603
• l 19621 223.843 224.288
• 1962:2 225.319 225.782 e 1962:3 220.200 227.954
• 1962:4 230.557 230.171
• I 1963:1 231.710 232.201
• 19G3:2 233.210 233.G72
• 1963:3 235.939 235.077
• 1963:4 230.409 237.987
• l 4 1964:1 240.930 240.179
• i 1964:2 243.607 'l42.990
• j 1964:3 245.771 246.335 *

!                                  1964:4       247.920   247.839 1965:1         250.104 249.733

• 1965:2 252.007 252.203
• 1965:3 256.256 255.457
• 1965:4 25G.757 25G.757
• 196G:t 259.681 258.766 e 1966:2 262.106 261.983
• 1966:3 2G5.832 265.154
• 196G:4 272.733 272.733
• 1967:1 274.719 274.049
• 1967:2 276.434 277.092 1967:3 279.239 279.457 *

        $                          1967:4         200.447 201.689

• d 1968:1 202.198 202.678 1968:2 284.520 204.682 *

N.

s

• 1968:3 207.920 207.658 l968:4 290.438 290.327 1969:1 291.393 292.510
• 1969:2 293.507 294.361
• 1969:3 296.38G 296.528
• 1969:4 296.830 24G.033 e 1970:1 299.567 290.809 e

1970:2 302.461 301.813 1970:3 305.702 305.296 1970:4 306.939 306.405 1971:1 307.425 307.959 1971:2 310.376 310.113 e 1971:3 314.039 313,720

• e 1971:4 317.446 316.711 1972:1 320.483 319.895 1972:2 324.333 324.439 1972:3 328.508 328,964
• 4 1972:4 333.063 332.502 1973:1 336.176 335.618 1973:2 339.235 338.920 i 1973:3 342.403 342.707 1973:4 345.254 345.132
• 1974:1 347.217 347.653
• 1974:2 350.302 349.04G 1974:3 353.304 353.468
• 1974:4 355.751 355.905 *

                                   ?975:1         357.806 357.982

• 1975:2 359.919 3G0.328
• 1975:3 362.393 3G3.116
• 1975:4 365.240 364.985
• 1976:1 367.854 3G7.744
• 4 1976:2 370.354 370.G83
• 1976:3 373.223 373.647
• 1976:4 300.219 300.219 s

(' ~ 1977:1 305.638 305.630 1977:2 300.393 308.240

• 1977:3 391.439 391.6G5
• 1977:4 '394.207 394.154 4

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

76 - O LP&L RESIDENTIAL TOTAL ALL-ELECTRIC CUSTOMERS ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTERLY (1968:2 TO 1977:4) 39 OCSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: CUERTLA-CUERTLA\1 COEFFICIENT STD. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT V AR

• ABLE

1) 0.0G11789 0.02970 2.060 (CURTLA-CURTLA\1)

2) 0.120590 0.02265 5.324 (CURTLA-CL*tTLA\1)*

DV723T0744

3) -0.0049353S 0.001979 -2.494 (CURTLA\1-CUERTLA\1)

4) -320.177 147.4 -2.172 HOU704RES

5) -0.000317250 0.0001290 -2.459 (CURTLA\1-CUERTLA\1)*

RYPOPOLD G) 0.00268031 0.0007133 3.769 (CURTLA\1-CUERTLA\1)* RYPOPNEW R-BAR SCUARED: 0.8370 (RELATIVE TO Y=0, RBSQ: 0.9655) DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 1.2692 STANDARD ERROR OF THE MEGRESSION: 103.5 NORYALIZED: 0.2005 WNERE: CUERTLA LP&L RESIDENTIAL TOTAL ALL-ELECTRIC CUSTOMERS CURTLA LP&L RESIDENTIAL TOTAL CUSTOMERS DV723T0744 UNUSUAL ALL-ELECTRIC CUSTCMER GROWTH (1972:3-1974:4) HOU704RES LOW HOUSING STARTS 1970:4 - 1971:1 RYP@PNEW REAL PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA - REVISED 1971:1 RYPOPOLD REAL PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA l 1 l l l l l l O l l l l Am. No. 2, (13/80)

   - . _ _ _ -_.~.-              . -_ _ = _         ,.                  -             -       _ . .           -            .         .         .-

i 7 7 >. 1 1 l PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS: CUERTLA DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES 4

1968:2 5.976 6.026

• 1968:3 6.477 6.424
• 1968:4 6.719 6.869
• 1969:1 6.920 7.039
• 1969:2 7.010 7,254 e 1969:3 7.540 7.426 *
• 1969:4 7.818 7.804
• 1970:1 8.015 8.221
• 1970:2 f. 6 86 8.660
• 1970:3 Y.243 9.154
• 1970:4 6.533 9.271
• 197151 0 484 9.743 *

' 1971:2 10.167 10.145

• 1971:3 10.954 10.882
• 1971:4 11.899 11.600
• 1972:1 12.888 12.645 *

! 1972:2 13.923 13.742

• I 1972:3 15.283 15.336
• j 1972:4 16.819 '6.811 *

{ 1973:1 18.155 18.116

• 1973:2 19.20s 19.433
• 1973:3 20.571 20.552
• f 1973:4 22.022 21.852
• 1974:1 23.291 23.132
• 1974:2 24.598 24.602
• 1974:3 26.009 25.862 *  ;

!                                           1974:4     27.054 27.232                                                                        *

! 1975: 1 27.903 27.923

• 1975:2 28.544 28.793
• 1975:3 29.398 29.468
• 1975:4 30.456 30.388
• 1976:1 31.295 31.529
• 1976:2 32.157 32.407
• 197G:3 33.162 33.218
• 1976:4 34.293 34.540
• 1977:1 35.483 35.633
• i 1977:2 36.717 36.679
• 1977:3 38.245 37.952 1977:4 39.9G7 39.543 -

l Am. No. 2, (10/80)

78 LP8L RESIDENTIAL USE PER CUSTOMER. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTERLY (1966:1 TO 1977:4) 48 OBSERVATIONS DLPENDENT VARIADLE: LOG (M9CRISALA/EFSATLA) COEFFICIENT STD. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARI ADLE

               -8.79544                  0.2401        -36.64    CONSTANT

1) FDL(LRPE.1.3.FAR)

    \0        -0.170919                0.07035         -2.S43
    \1        -0.119279                0.04690         -2.543
    \2      -0.059G397                 0.0234's        -2.543 SUM       -0.357030                  0.1407        -2.543 AVG        0.tiGGG67                     0.0           NC

2) PDL(LRYPOPNEW.1.4.FAR)

    \0         0.158363                0.09223          1.716
    \1         0.118772                0.06921          1.716
    \2        0.0791014                0.04614          1.71G
    \3        0.0395907                0.02307          1.716
    $UM        0.395907                  0.2307         1.716 AVG          1.00000                     0.0           NC

3) PDL(LRYPOPOLD.1.4.FAR)

    \0      -0.0594954                 0.01307         -4.553
    \1      -0.0446215               0.009800          -4.553
    \2      -0.0297477               0.006534          -4.553
    \3      -0.0148738               0.003267          -4.553 SUM       -0.140730                0.03267         -4.553 AVG          1.00000                     0.0           NC

4) 0.000209064 6.209E-05 4.669 (1.6* SAT 3RMLA+3.131*

S AT 3CI A ) * ( . 75

• L10NCDDNOLA+ .25*

L 1 DNCDDMOLA )

5) 0.00210725 0.001094 1.927 SATHTLA*(.75eLIDNHDONOLA+

                                                                   . 25

• L1 DNHDOMO L A )

R-BAR SQUARED: 0.0917 DURUIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 0.6145 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.05282 NORMALIZED: 0.006173 WHERE: EFSATLA EFFECTIVE SATURATION OF APPLIANCES LRPE LOCARITHM OF THE REAL PRICE OF ELECTRICITY LRYPOPNEW LOGARITHM OF REAL PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA - REVISED 1971:1 LRYPOPOLO LOGARITHM OF REAL PERSONAL INCCME PER CAPITA I L1DNCDDMCLA LAG ONE DIFFERENCE FROM NORYAL COOLING l DEGREE DAYS - MONRCE l L1DNCDONOLA LAG ONE DIFFERENCE FROM NORMAL COOLING l DEG7EE DAYS - NEW ORLEANS L1DNHDDYO'A . LAG ONE DIFFERENCE FROM NORYAL HEATING DEGREE DAYS - MUNROE L1DNHCDNOLA LAG ONE DIFFERENCE FRCM NORYAL HEATING DEGREE DAYS - NEW ORLEANS M9CRTSALA LPSL RESIDENTIAL USE PER CUSTOMER, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SATHTLA APPLIANLE SATURATION - ELEt~RIC HEAT SAT 3CLA APPLIANCL SATURATION - CENedAL AIR CCNDITICNER SAT 3RMLA APPLIANCE SATURATION - ROOM AIR CONDITIONER Am. No. 2, (10/80)

79 , i l i I PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS: M9CRTSALA l DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES i

1966:1 1.51 1.59 *++ i 1966:2 1.53 t.63 +++ 1966:3 1.63 1.65 *+ 1966:4 1.56 1.68 e+++ 1967:1 1.63 1.75 e+++ 1967:2 1.01 1.86 e+ 2 1967:3 1.64 1.80 *+++ l 1967:4 1.65 1.76 e++ 19G8:1 1.85 1.92 *+ 1968:2 1.89 1.88 e 1968:3 1.95 1.99 *+ j 1968:4 2.00 1.89 --e 1 1969:1 1.96 2.00 *+ l 1969:2 2.30 1.94 -* 1969:3 2 29 2.10 ----* 1969:4 2.15 2.00 -* 1970:1 2.17 2.09 --e 1970:2 2.32 2.14 ----e 1970:3 2.37 2.13 -----* 1970:4 2.30 2.19 --* 1971:1 2.35 2.27 --e 1971:2 2.48 2.29 ----* 197t:3 2.45 2.43 e j 1971:4 2.62 2.59 -e 1972:1 2.61 2.54 --e I 1972:2 2.68 2.56 - -e 1972:3 2.82 2.57 -----* t 1972:4 3.01 2.83 ----e ( 1973:1 2.77 2.62 ---e 1973:2 2.68 2.56 --e 1973:3 2.92 2.95 e+ i 1973:4 3.16 3.12 -e 1974:1 2.71 2.74 *+ 1974:2 3.00 2.97 -e 1974:3 2.80 2.71 --e  ! i 1974:4 2.75 2.73 e I 1975:t 2 92 2.90 e 1975:2 3.17 3.07 --e 1975:3 2.96 2.99 e+ 1975:4 3.01 3.10 e++ 1976:1 3.06 3.17 e++ 1976:2 2.93 3.14 e++++ 4 1976:3 3.11 3.22 e++ 1976:4 1.21 3.30 e++ 1977:1 3.40 3.52 e+++ 1977:2 3.47 3.52 ++ 1977:3 3.41 3.72 e+++++++ 1977:4 3.40 3.57 e++++ Am. No. 2, (10/80)

80 0 LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN S!CS 13 8 29. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTERLY (1963:3 TO 1977:4) 58 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: LOG (MH13295ALA) COEFFICIENT STD. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARIA8LE 1.95579 1.045 1.872 CONSTANT

1) 1.10091 0.1116 9.939 LOG (JQ!ND29/E19*

RECLAS$29eE29LA)

2) PDL(LRWMP1329.1.5.FAR)

    \0       -0.0426052            0.02239          -1.902
    \1       -0.0340042            0.01792          -1.902
    \2       -0.0255631            0.C1344          -1.902
    \3       -0.0170421           0.000958          -1.902
    \4     -0.00052104            0.004479           -1.902 SUM       -0.127816            0.0G718          -1.902 AVG          1.33333                  0.0            NC

3) 0.609397 0.2456 2.481 LOG (UNCLASS29)

4) 1.59524 0.1448 11.02 LOG (SHELL29)

5) 0.117334 0.07614 1.541 STRIKES 29 R-BAR SQUARED: 0.9066 00RBIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 1.0770 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESEION: 0.07338 NORMALIZED: 0.005946 WHERE:

E29 TOTAL EYPLOYMENT - PETROLEU A AND PRODUCTS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) E29LA EYPLOYMENT. PE TROLEUfA 8 COAL - L. P.8L SERV. AREA. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED JOINO29 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEx - PETROLEUM PRODUCTS LRwvP1329 LOG OF REAL WEIGHTED MARGINAL PRICE OF ELECTRICITY (SICS 13 8 29) MH13295ALA LP&L INDUS T RI AL CGNSU'.1P T 10N IN SICS 13 T. 2 4 SEASONALLY ADJJSTED RECLASS29 DECLASSIFICATION OF SERVICE AREA EYPLOYYENTS IN SIC 29 (75:1) SHELL29 SHELL OIL REFINERY EXPANSION APRIL 67

                                         +14.000 MWH/YO. (19G7:2)

STRIKES 29 SHELL OIL NORCO STRIKE FEB-MAR 1973 -450 EMP. (1973:1) UNCLASS29 UNCLASSIFIED CUST0 VERS PRIOR TO C0YPUTER CONVERSION (1971:1) O 1 l l l Am. No. 2, (10/80) l l l

81 f i PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTSt MH1329 SALA DATE ACTUAL r!TTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES 19G3:3 62.001 76.400 ++

i 1963:4 67.082 77.364 *+ l 1964:1 69.069 00.193 *+ I 1964:2 78.520 00.217

• 19G4:3 82.359 82.599
• 1 l 19G4:4 84.377 83.449 *  !

1965:1 88.G87 83.577 -* I' 1965:2 90.009 02.467 -e 1965:3 88.491 OG.548

• I i 1965:4 87.901 09.979 * ,

1966:t 101.089 92.774 -* 1966:2 102.083 93.548 -*

 !                                         1966:3              104.077          9G.947               -*

1966:4 104.409 90.020 -* 1967:1 117.349 107.743 -* 1967:2 154.400 185.205 *+++  ; 1967:3 179.168 108.199 *+ i 1967:4 190.780 192.736 -*

.                                          1968:1              207.925        203.478                                              *                                                                  ,

j 19G0:2 214.709 216.898

• 1968:3 222.602 217.628 -*

1968:4 235.G04 221.186 -* I 1969:1 236.805 249.772 *+ 1969:2 220.117 212.753 -* ['~} 1969:3 230.479 242.473 1969:4 258.516 241.455

                                                                                                                                        *+

1970:1 249.312 237.205 -e 1970:2 259.923 243.327 --* j 1970:3 257.396 248.500 -* 1970:4 256.247 251.480

• 1971:1 307.975 293.247 --*

1971:2 324.262 209.015 ----* 1971:3 345.106 300,777 -----* 1971:4 332.854 312.437 --* 1972:1 330.952 333.168

• 1972:2 371.026 330.361 ---*

1972:3 374.418 359.888 -* 1 1972:4 347.07G 363.403 *++ { 1973: 1 30G.247 384.576

• 1 1973:2 362.305 403.t75 *++++

i 1973:3 367.786 375.964 *+  ! l 1973:4 404.107 378.706 ---* 1974:1 375.G50 363.903 -* , 1974:2 379.355 398.088 *++ 1974:3 390.108 399.905

• 1974:4 400.835 390.925 -*

, 1975:1 397.671 44%.915 *+++++ i 1975:2 384.371 385.633 * ! 1975:3 378.071 399.510 *++ 1975:4 374.131 304.911 *+ 1976:1 392.916 419.001 *+++ 1976:2 416.271 439.909 *++ 1976:3 426.133 420.G00 -* 1 1976:4 451.381" 437.477 -* ! 1977:1- 475.048 4G9.220 -* I 1977:2 473.093 404.320 ++ ! 1977:3 489.G01 492.257 l 1977:4 500.544 491.560 -* l I i

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

L

l. - , . - .- -

82 LP8L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 14 8 32 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTERLY (19G3:1 TO 1977:4) 60 OBSERVATIONS DLPENDf NT VARI ABLE: LOG (MH1432 SALA) COErFICIENT 510. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT V ARI ABLE 2.90048 0.4600 6.325 CONSTANT

1) 0.625515 0.05937 10.54 LOG (JQINO32/E32*E32LA)

2) PDL(LRELPNG1432.2.8.80TH)

     \0      -0.0202710        0.002637         -10.72
     \1      -0.0494743        0.004614         -10.72
     \2      -0.0636098        0.005933         -10.72
     \3      -0.0706776        0.006592         -10.72
     \4      -0.0706776        0.006592         -10.72
     \S      -0.0636098        0.005933         -10.72
     \6      -0.0494743        0.004614         -10.72
     \7      -0.0282710        0.002637         -10.72 SUM       -0.424065         0.03955        -10.72 AVG          3.50000             0.0            NC

3) 0.830133 0.03188 26.04 LOG (INTERSTATE 14)

4) 0.203170 0.07912 2.568 LOG (JMANS32)

5) -1.11290 0.2245 -4.957 LOG (STEMP32)

6) 0.404779 0.1227 3.298 LOG (LAUREN321

7) 0.833550 0.1074 7.764 LOG (OOW32)

8) 0.151217 0.03503 4.316 RECESSION 32 R-DAR SQUARED: 0.9872 DURDIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 1.7811 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.04538 NORMALIZED: 0.004574 WHERE:

DOW32 DOW CHEMIC AL MISCLASSIFICATION PL AQUEMINE. LA. (1972:1-2) , E32 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - STONE. CLAY AND GLASS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) E32LA EMPLOYMENT. STONE. CLAY 8 GLASS - L.P/8L SERV. AREA. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INTERSTATE 14 CONSTRUCTION OF INTERST ATE HWY SYSTEM (19G8:3-1970) UMANS32 JOHNS MANVILLE PLANT CLOSING (1970:4-1971:31 J0!ND32 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - CLAY. GLASS AND STONE PRODUCTS LAUREN32 L AURENS GL ASS INC. ADDITION FE8-MAY (1973) LRELPNG1432 LOG OF PRICE OF ELECTRICITY RELATIVE TO NATURAL GAS (SICS 14 6 32) MH1432 SALA LP&L INDUST RI AL CONSU'.tPT ION IN SICS 14

                                      & 3?. SEASONALLY ADdVSTED RECESSION 32               DISI'ROPOR T 10N AT E DROP IN NATIONAL PRDDUCTIUN INDEX FOR SIC 32 (75:1-2)

STEMP32 GROWTH OF EYPLOYEES IN INDUSTRIES IN ST.TAYVANY PARISH v300 (19G7) Am. No. 2, (10/80)

83 PLOT OF FITTED VER5US ACTUAL RESULTS: MH1432 SALA DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES 19G3:1 10.833 11.094
• 1963:2 10.783 11.439 *+

1963:3 11.563 11.498 *

         ,       1963:4        11.846    11.544

• i 1964:1 11.190 12.052 *+

1964:2 12.645 12.612

• i 19G4:3 13.197 12.913
• 1964:4 12.578 13.127 *+

1965:1 13.487 13.115 -* 19G5:2 13.996 13.403 -e 1965:3 14.094 13.821

• 1965:4 15.5G1 14.039 --*

1966:1 14.836 14.375 -* 1966:2 14.941 14.434 -* 1966:3 14.111 14.242

• 1966:4 13.881 14.476 *+

1967:1 14.398 14.243 e 1967:2 13.439 14.216 *+ 1967:3 14.001 14.243

• 1967:4 13.879 13.904
• 1968:1 13.997 13.950
• 1968:2 13.991 13.869
• 1968:3 16.806 18.879 *+++

1968:4 20.708 22.154 *++ 1969:1 29.084 28.581 -* 1969:2 40.057 39.274 1969:3 3G.179 35.740 -* 1969:4 39.552 38.185 1970:1 28.183 26.717 --* 1970:2 23.011 24.607 **++ 1970:3 22.507 23.686 *++ 1970:4 21.465 22.4GJ *++ 1971:1 16.563 15.0G9 --* 1971:2 14.801 15.235 '*+ 1971:3 14.617 15.356 *+ 1971:4 17.974 16.865 --* 1972:1 24.318 24.413 1972:2 21.503 21.417 e 1972:3 19.700 18.157 --* 1972:4 19.249 19.163

• 1973: 1 21.229 21.850 *+

1973:2 22.954 23.572 *+ 1973:3 25.604 24.375 --* 1973:4 25.516 24.648 -* 1974:1 25.741 25.756

• 1974:2 26.158 26.915 *+

1974:3 2G.46G 27.453 - . 1974:4 27.405 26.900 1975:1 P9.199 29.413 1975:2 J0.147 29.986 1975:3 30.854 29.463 --* 1975:4 31.7G5 30.606 --* 197G:1 31.721 31.700

• 1976:2 32.798 34.100 *++

1976:3 34.543 33.736 -* 1976:4 35.320 35.068 1977:1 35.005 35.768 *+ 1977:2 34.977 35.878 *+ 1977:3 36,871 36.650 +++ 1977:4 3G. 7 58 38.241

  \

Am* No. 2 s (10/80)

,

84 O LP8L INDUSTRIAL CONSUvPTION IN SIC 20 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTERLY (1962:1 TO 1977:A) G4 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARI ABLE : LOG (MH20$ALA) COEFFICIENT STD. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARIABLE 5.40855 0.6286 8.604 CONSTANT

1) 0.595266 0.06897 8.631 LOG (JQ!ND20/E20*E20LA)

2) 2.50636 1.449 1.730 LOG (SUGAR 20)

3) 1.07343 0.7003 1.533 LOG (UN0!L20)

4) 1.22672 0.05589 21.95 LOG (UNCLASS20)

5) 0.995094 0.1442 6.901 LOG (BAG 20)

R-BAR SQUARED: 0.9875 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 1.0937 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.04188 NORMALIZED: 0.004095 WHERE: BAG 20 SUGAR MILLS INCR. VWH USAGE DUE TO ENVIR. BAN ON BURNING DAGASS (77:1) E20 TOTAL EMPLOYMLNT - FODD AND PRODUCTS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) E20LA EMP L O Y ff E N T . FOOD - L.P.8 L. SERVICE AREA. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED dQINO20 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - FOODS MH20 SALA LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUYPTION IN SIC 20 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SUGAR 20 SVGAR MILL DOWN 400 MSH PER MONTH (1968:4) UNCLASS20 UNCLASSIFIED CUSTOMERS PRIOR TO COMPUTER CONVERSION (1971: 2) UN0!L20 UNION DIL MILL HAS NO COTTON SEED DOWN 400 MWH (1969:3) O Am, No. 2, (10/80)

         . _.   ~..      .

I 85' I l . PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESul.TS: MH20 SALA DATE ACTUAL FITTED e MARKS ACTUAL VALUES 1902:1 17.909 18.015

• 1962:2 17.424 18.440 ++

1962:3 18.446 18.318

• 1902:4 18.413 18.775
• 1963:1 16.385 18.241 *++

19G3:2 18.9G7 18.999

• 1963:3 19.G39 19.299
• 1963:4 19.569 19.068 -*

1964:1 20.123 19.351 -* 1964:2 20.031 19.404 -* 1964:3 20.27G 19.581 -* 19G4:4 20.320 19,294 -* 1965:1 20.422 19.866 -* 1965:2 20.G52 19.761 -* 1965:3 20.353 19.874 -* 1965:4 ,20.195 20.159

• 1966:1 21.203 19.389 --*

1 1966:2 19.386 19.996 *+ 1966:3 21.255 20.147 -* 1966:4 20.698 20.274 -* 1967:1 10.800 20.048 *++ 1967:2 19.611 20.751 *++ 1967:3 19.399 20.497 *+ 1967:4 19.749 20.813 *+ 1968:1 'O.981 21.054

• 1968:2 0.266 21.034 *+

.! 's 1968:3 19.906 21.142 *++

        \                               1968:4 22.G17         22.622

• s ,j/ 1969:1 21.135 1969:2 20.900 20.966 21.071 1969:3 20.199 20,204
• 1969:4 21.075 21,983
• 1970:1 20.948 21.359 *+

1 1970:2 21.305 21.845 *+ 1970:3 22.488 21.739 -* 1970:4 23.905 22.026 --* 1971:1 30.777 28.603 ---* 4 1971:2 37.387 30.032 *+ 1971:3 39.395 38.389 -e 1971:4 37.882 38.400 ++ 1972:1 40.226 39.E37 -* 1972:2 39.727 39.483 e 1972:3 40.701 40.421 e 1972:4 41.592 41.318

• 1973:1 42.420 40.120 ---*

1973:2 40.7G4 40.586

• 4 1973:3 40.713 41.651 *+

1973:4 39.249 41.857 *+++ 1974:1 38.790 42.697 *+++++ 1974:2 40.658 42.237 *++ 1974:3 41.699 42.178 *+ 4 1974:4 40.095 .i O i i?2 ++ l 1975:1 39.366 40.719 *++ i 1975:2 39.071 40.644 *+

1975:3 '40.671 41.194 *+ 1975:4 42.003 41.962 -* l 1976: 1 42.355 42.420 * ' 1976:2 42.981 42.G27

• 1976 3 43.974 42.039 ---*

1976:4 46.424 41.967 ------* 1977:1 49.814 49.094 -*

  /\                                   1977:2 50.205          50.900                                                                  *+

(/) 1977:3 50.617 1977:4 51.629 50.513 51.897 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

86 O LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 22 & 23 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTERLY (1964:1 TO 1977:4) SG ODSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIA8LE: LOG (vH2223 SALA) COEFFICIENT STD. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARIABLE 1.57577 0.4643 3.394 CONSTANT

1) 0.819494 0.0G142 13.34 LOG ((.2*JQ1ND22+.8*

JOIND23)/(E22+E23)* E2223LA)

2) PDL(LRELP012223.2.8.BOTH)

    \0     -0.00857534           0.003554         -2.413
    \1       -0.0150068          0.00G220         -2.413
    \2       -0.0192945          0.007998         -2.413
    \3       -0.0214384          0.00888G         -2.413
    \4       -0.0214384          0.00088G         -2.413
    \5       -0.0192945          0.007998         -2.413
    \G       -0.0150068          0.006220         -2.413
    \7     -0.00057534           0.003554         -2.413 SUM       -0.128630           0.05332         -2.413 AVG         3.50000                  0.0          NC

3) 0.887952 0.0G791 13.07 LOG (UNCLASS2223)

R-BAR SQUARED: 0.9897 DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 0.8972 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.1007 NORMALIZED: 0.01406 WHERE: E22 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - TEXTILE MILL PRODUCTS (SEASONALLY A0 JUSTED) E2223LA EMPLOYMENT. TEXTILES & APPAREL - ..P.8L SERV. AREA. SEAS. ADJUSTED E23 TOTAL EVPLOYMENT - APPAREL AND PRODUCTS (SEASONALLY A0 JUSTED) dQ1ND22 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - TEXTILE MILL PRODUCTS JQlND23 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - APPAREL PRODUCTS LRELP012223 LOGARITHM OF PRICE OF ELECTRICITY RELATIVE TO FUEL OIL (SICS 22 & 23) MH2223 SALA LP&L INDUSTRI AL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 22

                                       & 23 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNCLASS2223                  UNCLAS$1FIED CUSTOYERS PRIOR TO COMPUTER CONVERSION (1971:1-2)

O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

l l l l 87 I i I 4 l i PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS: MH2223 SALA l I DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES l

19G4:1 332 306

• 1964 2 309 327
• i 1964:3 301 351
• l 1964:4 331 357 *

.                 19G5:1        401           41G

• I 1965:2 450 470
• 19G5:3 478 488
• li 1965:4 50G 508
• i 196G:1 471 509 *

, 196G:2 527 507

• 190G:3 579 511 -*

, 196G:4 533 534

• 1 1967:1 556 511
• l 1967:2 569 507 -*

i 19G7*3 538 500

• 19G7:4 519 518
• 1968:1 556 546 *  ;

1968:2 531 537

• 1968:3 593 533 -* '

1968:4 607 548 -* j 1969:1 584 SG7

• l 19G9:2 613 563 j 1969:3 668 608 -* f 1969:4 718 593 -* l 1970:1 651 644 *  !

1970:2 582 664 *+ > 1970:3 629 703 *+ f 4 1970:4 538 719 *++ 1971:1 1.002 1.169 *++ f 1971:2 1.492 1.895 *++++ 1971:3 1.831 1.950 *+ ' 1971:4 2.349 2.057 ---* 1972:1 2.357 2.089 - - * - . 1972:2 2.297 2.607 ++++ 1972:3 2.445 2.504 *+ 1972:4 2.447 2.613 *++

1973

1 2.747 2.873 *+

1973:2 3.185 3.043 <* 1973:3 3.408 3.095 --* 1973:4 3.670 3.303 ---*

1974

1 3.489 3.419 -*

1 1974:2 4.214 3.529 ------* > 1974:3 3.915 3.631 ---* 1974:4 3.794 3.663 -* 1975:1 3.760 3.279 ----* 1975:2 3.690 3.403 ---* 1975:3 3.72G 3.860 *+

,                 1975:4     4.137         4.188

• 1976:1 4.600 4.472 --*

1976:2 4.572 4.632 *+ 1976:3 4.653 4.721 *+ 1976:4 4.464 4.G14 *+ l *++ i 1977:1 4.749 4.941 1977:2 4.880 5.255 e+++ 1977:3 4.937 5.301 =+++ 1977:4 5.072 5.376 =+++ i I

 ~

Am. No. 2, (10/80) l- _. - . . ,_. . _ .- __ _ , _ _ _ ._ _ _ - . . _ _ _ .

88 LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN S!CS 24.25 & 26. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES _____________~________ QUARTERLY (196G:1 TO 1977:4) 48 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: LOG (MH242526 SALA) COEFFICIENT STD. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

1) 1.12617 0.01514 74.41 LOG ( ( . 24 + JOIN O24 +. 01

• JQ!N02S+.75.J0!ND2G)/

(E24+E25+E26)*E242526LA)

2) POL (LRELPNG242526.2.0, BOTH)

    \0       -0.017694G       0.002270              -7.?>4
    \1       -0.0309656       0.003973              -7.794
    \2       -0.0390129       0.005108              -7.794
    \3       -0.044236G       0.005676              -7.794
    \4       -0.04423GG       0.005676              -7.794
    \5       -0.0390129       0.005108              -7.794
    \6       -0.0303656       0.003973              -7.794
    \7       -0.017694G       0.002270              -7.794 P.UM      -0.265420        0.0340G              -7.794 AVG         3.50000              0.0               NC

3) -0.138952 9.09567 -1.452 LRELPWA242526

4) 0.815120 0.05273 15.46 LOG (UNCLASS24)

5) -0.231816 0.05924 -3.913 DV711242526

6) -0.190710 0.05929 -3.217 OV712242526 R-BAR SQUARED: 0.9796 (RELATIVE TO Ys0 R850: 1.0000)

DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 0.7069 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.05548 NORMALIZED: 0.004645 WHERE: DV711242526 QUALITATIVE VARIABLE FOR SICS 24.25 & 26 (1971:1) DV712242526 QUALITATIVE VARIABLE FOR SICS 24,25 8 26 (1971:2) E24 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - LUYBER AND PRODUCTS (SE/SONALLY ADJUSTED) E242526LA EMPLOYMENT. LUYBER.FURN!TURESPAPER - L.P.&L SERV. AREA, SEAS. ADJUSTED E25 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - FURNITURE AND FIATURES (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) E26 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - PADER AND PRODUCTS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) JQ1ND24 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - LUV8ER AND PRODUCTS JOINO25 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - FURNITURE AND FlxTURES JQ1ND26 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - PAPER AND PRODUCTS LRELPNG242526 LOG OF PRICE OF ELECTRICITY RELATIVE TO NATURAL GAS (SICS 24,25 & 26) LRELPWA242526 LOG A R I T H'.1 0F PRICE OF ELECTRICITY RELATIVE TO WAGES (SICS 24.25 & 26) MH242526 SALA LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUYPTION IN SICS 24, 25 & 26. SEASCNALLY ADJUSTED UNCLAS$24 UNCLASS!FIED CUSTOMERS PRIOR TO COMPUTER CONVERSION (1970:4-1971:1) Am. No. 2, (10/80)

   - - - - -. - _= ---           . _ -             - _ _ _ - .               .             -     -                           -     __              .

i 89 T l I i l PLOT OF FITTED VERSU5 ACTUAL RESULTS: MH242526 SALA i DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES l

1966:1 06.8G3 94.042 *++ l 196G 2 93.006 9G.072 *+ 1966:3 98.405 97.937 e 196G:4 100.035 07.770 -e , 1967:1 96.001 95.051 e 1967:2 96,140 93.G13 -* 1967:3 95.459 92.627 -* 1967:4 96,103 94.410 e 1960:1 93.339 93.819 e 1968:2 93.925 96.980 *+ 1968:3 97.742 98.557 e 1968:4 104.397 100.620 -e 1969:1 102.723 102.961

• 1969:2 105.202 104,443
• 1969:3 94.564 103.854 o++

1969:4 101.806 106.263 *+ 1970:1 107.771 107.261 e

.                1970:2 111.662 104.629                               --*

! 1970:3 116.047 '106.694 ---* 1970:4 122.482 121.934 e 1971:1 134.701 134.527 e 1971:2 143.612 143.426 e 1971:3 155.214 175.307 e+++++ 1971:4 161.226 177.7G7 e++++ 1972:1 178.810 184.012 e+ 1972:2 105.154 109.564 *+ 1972:3 196.750 196.098 e 1972:4 210.210 205.064 -e 1973:1 209.930 211.933 o+ 1973:2 218.392 217.593 e 1973:3 225.407 222.546 -e = 1973:4 223.382 221.255 -e i 1974:1 230.540 214.846 ----e ! 19'!4 :2 240.139 220.235 1974:3 221.479 213.261 --e 1974:4 218.031 201.956 ----* 1975:1 207.163 100.777 -------* 1975:2 197.017 181.299 ----e , 1975:3 208.079 200.509 --e 1975:4 213.703 220.042 e++ 1976: 1 229.227 235.567 *++ 1976:2 241.017 244.744 *+ 197G:3 236.653 245.687 *++ 197G:4 239.9G0 246.332 ,

                                                                                                                                *++

1977:1 239.301 252.291 *+++ 1977:2 242.041 253.777 *+++

,                1977:3 247.070 256.587                                                                                          *+++

1977:4 240.189 256.544 *++

                                                                                                                                               "4 4

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

90 0 LP&L !NDUSTRIAL CONSUYPfl0N IN SICS 27,38 8 39 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUtRTERLY(1969:4 TO 1977:4) 33 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: LOG (MH2738395ALA) COEFFICIENT STO. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARI ABLE 5.03726 0.5060 11.54 CONSTANT

1) 0.370640 0.0G490 5.704 LOG (JOIND39/E39eE3839LA)

2) 1.35271 0.1101 12.28 LOG (UNCLASS273839)

R-BAR SQUARED: 0.9427 LURDIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 1.5051 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.1400 NORMALIZED: 0.01653 WHERE: E3039LA EMPLOYMENT, INSTRUMENTS & MISC. - L.P.8L SERV. AREA. SEAS. ADJUSTED E39 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - MISCELLANEOUS MANUF ACTURING (SE ASON ALLY ADJUSTED) JQ1ND39 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURES MH2738395ALA LPSL INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 27 38 6 39. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNCLASS273039 UNCLASSIFIED CUSTOMERS PRIOR TO COMPUTER CONVERSION (1971:2) O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

i 91 r 1 J 7 i i t a PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS: MH273839 SALA DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES 1969:4 1.681 1.593 -e i

1970:1 1.580 1.375 -* 1970:2 930 1.280 *++ 1970:3 1.495 1.193 --* 1970:4 1.355 1.473 *+ 1971:1 2.693 2.941 *++ 1971:2 3.752 4.934 e++++++++ 1971:3 3.450 4.774 e+++++++++ 1971:4 4.391 4.853 *+++ e 1972 1 5.162 5.118 1972:2 5.592 5.234 --e

                                                                                                                                                     ----e 1972:3               6.255        5.398                                                                        -
                                                                                                                                                          ---e 19/2:4               6.484        5.486                                                                           - -
                                                                                                                                                   -----e 1973:1               6.278        5.493                                                                                  --e 1973:2               6.363        5.528                                                                           ---
                                                                                                                                                       ----e 1973:3               6.467        5.821                                                                               ----e 1973:4               6.432        5.853 e

1974:1 5.976 5.976 e l I 1974:2 6.438 6.417 -e 1974:3 6.433 6.285 -------* 1974:4 6.972 5.920 1975:1 5.705 6.242 e++++

                                                                                                                                                           ----e 1975:2               6.847        6.296
                                                                                                                                                               -e 1975:3               6.672        6.596                                                                                       e+++

1975:4 6.513 6.899 +++++++ 4 1976:1 6.428 7.229 *++++++ 1976:2 6.569 7.418 *+++++ 1976:3 6.681 7.417 e++++ l 1976:4 6.741 7.298 --e 1977:1 7.690 7.276

• j 1977:2 7.223 7.199 -* -

1977:3 7.587 7.397 e+ 1977:4 7,509 7.710 i i .i Ame No. 2, (10/80) 4 1

                                                           ., _. ,                   ,    .                   -----m..         .--- ,-_.- _,~.--.,                   -m-,         ,   - - - - - - -
   -. . e. -               ..     - - - - _ , - _                    _ _ . - _

92 O LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 28 8 30 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES OUARTERLY(1967:4 TO 1977:4) 41 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: LOG (MH2830 SALA) COEFFICIENT STO. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARI ABLE 3.57726 0.5850 6.115 CONSTANT

1) 1.01721 0.0581G 17.49 LOG (JOINO28/E28*

E2830NSLA)

2) -3.42398 1.063 -3.204 LOG (UNCARA28)

3) 0.0493936 0.0465G 1.061 STRIKE 28

4) 0.987572 0.1223 8.076 LOG (CHEM 28)

R-8AR SQUARED: 0.9830 DUR81N-WATSON STATISTIC: 1.3575 ' STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.05356 NORMALIZED: 0.004055 WHERE: CHEM 28 HOOKER CHEMICAL CO. PL ANT EXP ANSION CAME ON (75: 1) E28 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - CHEMICALS AND PRODUCTS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) E2830NSLA EMPLOYMENT, CHEMICALS & RUB 8ER - L.P.8 L SERVICE AREA JQtND20 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - CHEMICALS AND PRODUCTS MH2830 SALA LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUVPTION IN SICS 28 8 30. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED STRIKE 28 00W CHEMICAL STRIKE OF 1500 EMPLOYEES APR-SEP 75 (1975:2-3) UNCARA28 UNION CAR 810E TERMINATES PLANT MAINTENANCE PERSONNEL (1973) Am. No. 2, (10/80)

f 93: i t i 1 i i i i PLOT OF FITTED VER5US ACTUAL RESULTS1 MH2830 SALA 1 i DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES i

j 1967:4 263.766 289.258 *+ 1968:1 290.600 300.404

• 1960:2 322.591 310.797 ~*

1 1968:3 327.372 333.022

• i 1968:4 340.332 341.053
• 1969:1 370.960 35G.672 -*

1969:2 349.493 370.939 *+ 1969:3 345.727 387.707 *++

,                                 1969:4     397.762        385.092         -*

i 1970:1 407.370 379.531 -* 1970:2 425.477 394.062 ~*

<                                 1970:3     428.123        384.074          --*

1970:4 412.857 399.506 -e 1971:1 421.279 411.033

• 1971:2 415.693 432.928 ++

1971:3 445,143 449.379

• 4

( 1971:4 1972:1 502.138 500.776 479.397 496.905 1 1972:2 512.147 511.489

• 1972:3 515.403 537.736 *+

1972:4 497.136 544.785 *++ 1973:1 513.097 510.650

• 1973:2 502.778 528.119 ++

1973:3 54G.587 520.149 ~* 1973:4 518.048 528.G61

• 1974:1 521.376 538.032 *+

1974:2 500.090 554.GG7 -* 1974:3 500,418 599.782 *+ 1974:4 507.905 577.928

• l 1 1975:1 704.736 730.946 *+

1975:2 690.552 690.132 *

• 1975:3 73G.311 737.718
• 1975:4 837.287 870.610 *++

1976:1 894.536 910.983 *+ 1976:2 1.008.404 966.065 --* 985.050 ---* ! 1976:3 1.046.014 ---* 197G:4 1.113.034 1.018,683 1977:1 1.070.655 1.078.148

• 4 1977:2 1.147.406 +++

! 1.113.441 *++ i 1977:3 1.100.950 1.133.953 ++ l 1977:4 1.091.576 1.123.600 i / I b V i r _ _ . - Am. No.,2t(10/80)

96 O LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 33 & 34 EXCEPT KAISER ALUMINUM, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTE 9LY(1970:1 TO 1977:4) 32 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: LOG (MH3334xKASALA) COEFFICIENT STO. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARIABLE 9.79832 0.05G52 173.4 CONSTANT

1) 0.777535 0.1144 6.798 LOG (.75+JQ!ND33/E33*

E33LA/2101+.25+JQ1NO34/ E34+E34N3LA/1982)

2) PDL(LRELPO!3334XKA.2,8, BOTH)

     \0      -0.0263626             0.003083          -0.552
    \1       -0.0461345             0.005395          -8.552
     \2      -0.0593150             0.00693G          -0.552
     \3      -0.0659065             0.007707          -0.552
     \4      -0.0659065             0.007707          -8.552
     \S      -0.0593t58             0.00693G          -8.552
     \6      -0.0461345             0.005395          -8.552
     \7      -0.0263626             0.003083          -8.552 SUM       -0.395439              0.04624         -0.552 AVG         3.50000                    0.0          NC

3) -0.158198 0.08869 -1.784 DIBAN33

4) 0.824125 0.2568 3.209 LOG (UNCLASS34)

R-8AR SQUARED: 0.9656 DU R BIN-W A T SON STATISTIC: 0.5676 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.08031 NORYALIZED: 0.007658 WHERE: 010AN33 DIEGERT BANCROFT C0YPANY SHUT DOWN (1971: 1) E33 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - PRIMARY METAL INDUSTRIES (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) E33LA EMPLOYMENT. PRIMARY ME T ALS - L.P.8 L SERV. AREA. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED E34 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - FAURICATED METAL PRODUCTS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) E34NSLA EMPlovMENT. FADQlCATED METALS - L.P.a L SERVICE AREA JQIND33 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - PRIMARY METALS JQ!ND34 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX - FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS LRELPO!3334xxA LOGARITHM OF PRICE OF ELECTRICITY RELATIVE TO FUEL OIL (SICS 33 & 34) MH3334XKASALA LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 33

                                           &3',   EXCEPT KAISER ALUMINUM. SE A SON A LLY ADJUSTED UNCLASS34                       UNCLASSIFIED CUSTOMERS PRIOR TO COMPUTER CONVERSION (71:2-4)

Am. No. 2, (10/80)

           ..       .-~                    .                                   -           - --                        - _ _ .                . .-.. .                ._ -             ..__               -_

95 i l s l l i i l PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS: MH3334XKASALA l DATE ACTUAL FITTED e MARKS ACTUAL VALUES 1970:1 18.077 17.498 -* 1970:2 18.120 17.895

• 1970:3 18.110 18.259 *

!                          1970:4                16.977                        18.366    *+

1971:1 16.202 16.362 *

'                          1971:2 20.678 21.922                                          ' *+

1971:3 23.244 22.272 -* 1971:4 27.884 25.599 --* 1972:1 30.032 28.940 -* 1972:2 33.042 30.290 --* I

                ,          1972:3 34.513 31.656                                                                                 --*                                                                                                 i i                         1972:4 34.791 33.488                                                                                 -*                                                                                                 l 1973:1' 34.922 34.078                                                                                -a 1973:2 34.117 35.638                                                                                 *+

1973:3 35.611 38.472 *++

1973

4 36.909 39.169 +++

1974:1 36.416 37.835 *+ j 1974:2 34.655 39.861 *++++ ) *+++ 1974:3 39.769 42.743 1974:4 37.295 42.399 *++++ 1975:1 39.632 46.008 *++++++ 1975:2 41.468 44.876 *+++ 1975:3 40.568 46.398 *+++++ 1975:4 46.4 G8 49.059 *++

 '                          1976:1                57.314                       55.558 1976:2               60.360                        58.902                                                                                                           --*

1976:3 63.753 60.920 1976:4 63.593 60.110 -* l 1977:1 61.381 59.948

• 1977:2 61.065 61.605 --*

1977:3 62.918 60.457 - - - - - - -*

• 1977:4 70.623 60,1G3 1

i 1 4 s I r Am. No. 2, (10/80)

                        - , _ . _ , . . - 3_.__- _,.y_ . - - - - . _ _ _ - , ,         ,         , _ . , _ . . _ , . _ , . ,
                                                                                                                                    . , _ , _  r, y.   ,-.___ .- y    _,, ,,,   ..__.,_..m...-.              _._ . , .w-  _~--r-- -

96 O LP&L INDUSTRIAL CONSUMPTION IN SICS 35,36 & 37, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTERLY (1963:1 TO 1977:4) 60 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: LOG (MH3536375ALA) COEFFICIENT STD. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARIABLE 1.41410 0.3501 4.039 CONSTANT

1) 0.990603 0.03766 26.30 LOG (JOIND37/E37*

E353637LA)

2) 2.97490 1.242 2.395 LOG (BETSY37)

3) 0.605511 0.08450 7.166 LOG (UNCLASS353637)

R-BAR SQUARED: 0.9022 DUROIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 0.9084 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.06663 NORYALI2ED: 0.006562 WHERE: DETSY37 DETSY RESULTS IN AVONDALE LOSS OF -800

                                     & -1600 MwH/MO ( 1905:3-4)

E353637LA EMPLOYMENT, MACHINERY & TRANSP. EQUIP.- L.P.6L SERV. AREA, SEAS. ADJUST. E37 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT - TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT ( S E ASON A ' !_ f ADJUSTED) JOINO37 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEA - TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT MH3536375ALA LPAL INDUSTRIAL CONSU* APT!ON IN SICS 35, 36 & 37 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED i UNCLASS353637 UNCLASS!FIED CUSTOMERS PRIOR TO COMPUTER l CONVERSION (1971:1) i l i l 1 O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

97 i j ( PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS: MH3536375ALA DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES 1963:1 10.613 9 912 -*

1963:2 9.9G1 9.903

• 19G3:3 10.500 10.304
• 1963:4 11.262 10.593 -*

1964:1 11.155 11.713 *+ 1964:2 11.021 12.508 *+ 4 19G4:3 12.129 12.718 *+ 1964:4 13.192 12.629 -* 1965:1 13.457 14.242 *+ i 1965:2 14.606 15.304 *+ 1965:3 14.054 15.213

• 1965:4 14.638 14.491 e 1966: 1 16.355 17.358 *+

1966:2 16.243 17.442 *+ 1966:3 18.5G5 17.406 -* 1966:4 16.299 17.204 *+ 1967:1 16.390 16.330

• 1967:2 16.651 16.049
• 1967:3 17.223 17.695 *+

1967:4 19.202 19.304

• 1968:1 20.791 21.499 *+
• 1968:2 21.053 22.017 *++

1 1968:3 21.687 23.076 *++ 1960:4 23.146 23.632 *+ 19G9:1 22.453 23.794 *++

 ,     1969:2 23.405 23.2i1
!      1969:3 24.0G7 23.935 1

1909:4 24.634 24.312 ' 1970:1 24.757 22.763 -- a 1970:2 25.964 23.610 ---* 1970:3 27.029 23.934 ----* 1970:4 29.010 24.476 -* 1971:1 34.052 33.763 1971:2 40.026 33.946 -------* 1971:3 39.020 35.945 -* a 1971:4 30.738 38.236 e 1972:1 36.001 37.174 1972:2 36.624 39.382 *+++ 1972:3 38.440 41.400 *+++ 1972:4 38.491 41.G10 *++++

                                                                                        *+

) 1973:1 39.804 41.084 1973:2 37.515 41.702 ++++++ 1973:3 40.730 41.689 *+ 1973:4 40.874 42.590 *++ 1974: 1 37.606 39.042 *++ 1974:2 37.717 39.015 ++ 1974:3 35.230 30.968 *++++ 1974:4 36.508 36.531 -----* 1975: 1 39.065 35.022 1975:2 41.103 37.049 -* 1975:3 42.622 41.807 --* 19,5:4 43.983 42.312 1976:1 43.6GG 43.029 -* 1976:2 42.472 43.700 *+ 1976:3 44.095 43.653 -* ' 1976:4 45.425 44.218 - ---* 1977:1 49.487 45.150 1977:2 40.595 40.762 *++ 1977:3 49.200 50.005 1977:4 49.742 51,639 *++ i \, Amo No* 2, (10/80)

98 O LPAL NON-MANUFACTURING TOTAL CONSUMPTION. SEASONALLY ADdVSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES CUARTERLY(19G8:1 TO 1977:4) 40 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: LOG (MHNMSALA) COEFFICIENT STD. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARIABLE 13.5228 0.04766 283.7 CONSTANT

1) 1.28199 0.1719 7.456 LOG (ENMLA)

2) 0.000262076 0.0001063 2.466 L1DNCDONOLA

3) 1.03341 0.1330 7.772 LOG (COMPUTNM)

4) -0.230533 0.1066 -1.235 LOG (EMPLOY 722NM)

5) -1.25195 0.3347 -3.740 LOG (EMPLOY 734NM)

6) -0.2155G7 0.1088 -1.142 LRWMPNM R-BAR SQUARED: 0.9008 DURUIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 0.8671 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.04761 NORMALIZED: 0.003633 WHERE:

COMPUTNM COMPUTER CONVERSION OF NON-MANUFUCTURING CUS10MERS (1971:3-4) EMPLOY 722NM EMPLOYMENT LEVEL CHANGE (1972:2) EMPLOY 734NM EMPLOYMENT LEVEL CHANGE (1973:4) ENMLA EMPLOYMENT, NON-MANUFACTURING - L.P.8L SERV. AREA. SEASONALLY ADJUST. LRWMPNM LOG OF RE AL WEIGHTED MARGIN AL PRICE OF ELECTRICITY FOR NON-MANUFACT. L10NCDONOLA LAG ONE DIFFERENCE FROM NORMAL COOLING DEGREE DAYS - NEW ORLEANS MHNMSALA LP&L NON-MANUFACTURING TOTAL CONSUMPTION, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 9 Am. No. 2, (10/80)

99 4 f 4 PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS: MHNMSALA i DATE ACTUAL FITTED e MARKS ACTUAL VALUES ) 1968:1 275.972 295.415 *++ 1968:2 281.445 296.092 *+ !. 1960:3 20G.061 308.212 *++ 1968:4 294.056 301.465 *+ 1969: 1 300.668 312.635 *+ 1969:2 309.521 310.963

• 1969:3 325.414 330.430
• j 1969:4 329.606 334.212
• 4 1970:1 333.868 323.793 -*

j 1970:2 349.731 332.773 -* 1970:3 354.722 338.451 -* l 1970:4 353.941 344.661 -* 1971: 1 362.331 340.549 --* 1971:2 376.522 344.870 ---* l 1971:3 448.422 433.353 -* l 1971:4 484.255 504.416 *++ 1972: 1. 514.256 504.319 -* } 1972:2 524.845 499.739 --* 1972:3 556.301 519.543 ---* 1972:4 577.439 551.170 --*

!                     1973:1           558.478 560,898                                                                *

! 1973:2 553.224 575.361 *++ 1973:3 564.259 635.005 *++++++ 1973:4 600.905 503.537 -* . 1974:1 576.145 557.448 --* 1974:2 507.609 578.429 ~* 1974:3 579.192 568.603 -* 1974:4 582.953 594.219 *+ 1975:1 627.334 629.797

• 1075:2 639.065 644.145
• 1972:3 630.902 645.858 *+

1975:4 650.040 601.056 *+++ 1976:t 663.632 609.044 *++

1976:2 662.282 698.530 *+++

,                     1976:3           699.142        720.809                                                                                 *++

l 1976:4 734.095 718.171 -* 1977:1 775.462 735.303 1977:2 807.542 702.706 --* 1977:3 816.938 800.536 -* l 1977:4 027.633 828.234 l i u d 4 i Am. No. 2, (10/80)

  -   . . - -   -w-- , , .--.                  -+-----+-~rvee,r.---m+-~-v-w,-                    w.  -
                                                                                                       --,---s-,s         n    -e   . - --- -              , . - - -- . e - - - ~       -r -

100 0 LP&L STREETLIGHTING TOTAL CONSUMPTION CRDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTERLY (1962:2 TD 1977:4) 63 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: LOG (MHSLTLA) COEFFICIENT STD. EaROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARI ABLE

               -0.585932               0.3394         -1.72G    CONSTANT

1) 0.053477 0.05199 16.41 LOG (MHSLTLA\1)

2) 0.15079G 0.06469 2.455 LOG (CURTLA)

3) -0.0587389 0.01572 -3.73G 6ETSYSL

4) 0.0960329 0.01569 6.121 ACCTNG714SL

5) -0.0457452 0.01681 -2.722 ACCTNG72]SL R-DAR SQUARED: 0.9941 DUROIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 1.795G STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.01548 NORYALIZED: 0.001613 WHERE:

ACCTNG714SL ACCOUNTING PROBLEMS W/ STREET LIGHTING ENERGY (1971:4) ACCTNG721SL ACCOUNTING PRODLEMS W/ STREET LIGHTING ENERGY (1972: 1) BETSYSL STREET LIGHT ADJUSTMENT FOLLOWING HURRICANE BETSY (1966: 1) CURTLA LP&L RESIDENTIAL TOTAL CUSTOMERS MHSLTLA LP&L STREETLIGHTING TOT AL CONSUMPTION O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

_= m_. .m_ _ ._ __ _ _ _ _ 101 PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS: MHSLTLA I DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES 1962:2 9.735 10.002 *+

' 1962:3 9.941 10.000

• 1962:4 10.039 10.205 *+

1963

1 10.262 10.299

• 1963:2 10.424 10.505
• 1963:3 10.565 10.666
• 1963:4 10.741 10.006
• i 1964:1 11.109 10.978 -*

1964:2 11.402 11.380

• 19G4:3 11.510 11.589
• 1964:4 11.609 11.706
• 1965: 1 11.901 11.070 1965:2 12.132 12.073
• 19G5:3 12.304 12.301
• 1965:4 12.367 12.453 *

, 19GG:1 .11.016 11.015 1966 2 12.732 12.070 ---* i 1966:3 12.916 12.093

• 1966:4 13.277 13.105 -*

l 1967:1 13.407 13.432

• 1967:2 13.500 13.627 *+

lj 1967:3 13.763 13.6G7

• 1967:4 14.163 13.096 -*

r 1968:1 14.371 14.254 -* 1968:2 14.390 14.452

• 1968:3 14.535 14.502 e 1968:4 14.933 14.640 -*

1969:1 15.143 14.994 -* 1969:2 15.172 15.107

• 1969:3 15.346 15.235
• 1969:4 15.665 15.388 -*

1970:1 15.766 15.603

• 1970:2 15.651 15.793 *+

1970:3 15.700 15.722 1970:4 15.707 15.842 *+ 1971:1 16.139 15.704 --* 1971:2 15.960 16.178 *+ 1971:3 16.039 16.055

• 1971:4 17.779 17.770 I 1972:1 16.072 16.071
• 1972:2 15.890 16.921 *+++++

1972:3 16.040 16.116

• I 1972:4 16.468 16.274 -*

1973: 1 16.675 16.6G9

• 1973:2 16.519 16.072 *++

1973:3 16.691 16.762

• 17.113 -*

1973:4 16.933 1974:1 17.174 17.313 *+ 1974:2 17.039 17,390 *++ 1974:3 17.264 17.297

• 1974:4 17.640 17.511
• 1975:1 17.746 17.052 1975:2 17.027 17.961 *+

1975:3 17.993 10.050

• 1975:4 10.417 10.216 -*

1976:1 10.69G 10.603

• 1976:2 10.5G0 18.863 *+

,l 197G:3 10.735 10.776

• 1976:4 19.123 10.976 -*

1977:1 19.094 19.354 1977:2 19.914 20.041 *+ 3 ['Ng 1977:3 19.903 20.003 1977:4 20,202 20.166 , [ j j \d I 4: I Am. No. 2, (10/80)

102 O I LP&L CO-OPERATIVE TOT AL CONSUMPTION, SEASONALLY ADdUSTED f i ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTERLY (1960:1 TO 1977:4) 72 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: YHWCSALA COEFFICIENT STD. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARIABLE I 9620.92 1226 7.852 CONSTANT

1) 0.171180 0.01201 13.37 MHRTSALA l 2) 0.0421070 0.02099 2.00G MHNMSALA R-BAR SQUARED: 0.9959 l DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 1.0279 l STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 4501 NORMALIZED: 0.03340 WHERE:

MHNYSALA LPSL NON-MANUFACTURING TOTAL CONSUMPTION, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MHRTSALA LPSL RESIDENTIAL TOTAL ENERGY, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MHWCSALA L?al CO-OPERATIVE TOTAL CONSUMPTION, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED O Am. No. 2, (10/80)

103 PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS: MH2CSALA 4 DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES

      \"s   1960:1    44.905   44.690

• 1960:2 45.876 44.269
• 1960:3 47.309 4G.347
• 1960:4 49.299 47.714
• 19G1:1 49.014 49.657
• 1961:2 50.216 47.63G
• 1961:3 45.476 45.972
• 1961:4 51.534 50.570
• 1962:1 52.224 53,197
• 1962:2 53.006 SG.703 *+

19G2:3 57.700 59.219

• 1962:4 50.000 GO.0G1 e 1963:1 60.140 60,879
• 1963:2 G2.251 G3.472 *

1963

3 G1.057 G3.43G

• 1963:4 64.077 66.335 *

, 1964:1 67.507 68.632 e i 19G4:2 69.514 60 G33

• 1964:3 71.G95 72.796
• 1964:4 73.04G 74.600
• 1965:1 75.973 74.213
• 19G5:2 00.503 02.327
• 1965:3 01.7G2 78.351 -*

1965:4 83.960 80.032 -* 1966:1 08.392 05.179 -* 1966:2 09.223 06,933 + 1966:3 93.082 93.012

• 1966:4 93.707 91.916
• 1967:1 96.500 96.254 e 1967:2 99.260 105.954 *+

1967:3 90.916 98.667

• 1967:4 105.928 99.076 -e

          \ 1968:1 1968:2 112.101  110.675 113.15G 113.416 e

g ,,/ 1960:3 112.660 117.800 *+ 1968:4 117.883 121.50G *+ 1969: 1 120.561 120.470

• 1969:2 124.843 123.204
• 1969:3 140.347 139.732
• 1969:4 136.552 132.506 -*

1970:1 140.009 134.715 -* , 1970:2 150.834 144.355 -* 1970*3 151.459 140.444 -* 1970:4 146.312 145.570

• 1971:1 152.373 148.445 -*

1971:2 157.637 157.377

• 1 1971:3 160.795 160.353 1971:4 164.916 172.253 *+

,           1972: 1  165.206 174.554                                           *++

l 1972:2 174.793 180.480 *+ 'l 1972:3 106.020 191.892 *+ 1972:4 191.704 205.494 *+++ ] 1973:1 192.022 192.786

• 1 1973:2 181.631 100.323 *+

1973:3 200.430 204.G74 *+ 1973:4 208.149 221.521 *+++ i 1974:1 191.609 194.910 *+ 1974:2 212.032 214.117

• 1974:3 204.789 203.312 *

! 1974:4 20G.942 201.749 -e 1975:1 212.265 214.843

• 1975:2 231.259 231.872
• 1975:3 225.265 220.052 -*

l 1975:4 224.uG5 225.479

• 1976: 1 235.049 230.465 -*

1976:2 230.0G2 223.393 -* 1976:3 243.529 237.93G -*

        ,/  197G:4 262.309 249.337                                                                    ---*

1977:1 ,2G5.771

• 2GG.543 1977:2 271.210 274.465 *+

1977:3 .270.410 272.577 -* 1977:4 270.155 273.903 -* Am. No. 2 (10/80)

104 O LP&L MUNICIPAL TOTAL CONSUMPTION. EXCEPT MINDEN 8 EMERGENCY SALES. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES QUARTERLY (1964:1 TO 1977:4) 56 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE: LOG (MHMTLEMSALA) COEFFICIENT STD. ERRDR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARIABLE 1.17334 0.1997 5.876 CONSTANT

1) 0.640166 0.01484 43.60 LOG (MHRTSALA)

R-DAR SQUARED: 0.9720 DUR0!N-WATSON STATISTIC: 0.5242 STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 0.04951 NORMALIZE 0: 0.005006 WHERE: MHMTLEMSALA LPSL MUNICIPAL TOTAL CONSUYPTION. EXCEPT MINDEN 8 EMERGENCY SALES. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MHRTSALA LP&L RESIDENTIAL TOTAL ENERGY. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED O Am, No. 2, (10/80)

105 l l l d PLOT OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS: MHMTLEMSALA DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES l

1964:1 10.783 11.561 *++ 1964:2 10.674 11.562 e++ 1964:3 11.078 12.167 *++ 1964:4 11.402 12.340 *++ 1965:1 11.416 12.270 *++ 1965:2 11.9G8 13.303 *+++ 1965:3 12.445 12.770 'e + 1965:4 12.631 12.999 *+ 19GG:1 13.9G3 13.G13 -e 1966:2 14.700 13.825 --* 1966:3 15.212 14.522 --e

;          196G:4   15.256  14.344                --*

1967: 1 15.923 14.822 ---* 1967:2 16.107 15.948 e 1967:3 15.343 15.074 -e 1967:4 17.0G4 15.172 ----* 1968:1 17.6G8 16.395 ---* 1968:2 17.741 16,692 --e 1908:3 17.152 17.181 e 1968:4 17.937 17.569 -o 1969:1 17.9G4 17.419 -e

!          1969:2   18.471  17.689                          --e 1969:3  20.042   19.450                                 -e 1969:4   19.033  18.639                              -e I /      1970:1   19.689  18.864                              --e 1970:2  20.822   19,838                                  --*

1970:3 21.721 20.251 ---e 1970:4 20.842 19.949 --* 1971:1 21.391 20.218 ---* 1971:2 21.914 21.091 --* 1971:3 22.173 21.086 ---* 1971:4 23.096 22.149 --* 1 1972:1 22.594 22.253 -e 1972:2 23.620 22.801 --e 1972:3 23.661 23.792 e e++ ): 1972:4 1973: 1 24.288 23.959 25.009 23.870 e 1973:2 21.782 23.457 e++++ 1973:3 24.436 24.984 e+ i 1973:4 26.607 26.409 e 1974:1 24.223 24.004 -e 1974:2 26.190 25.777 -e 1974:3 24.222 24.796 e+ 1974:4 23.644 24.632 +++ 1975: 1 24.998 25.689 e++ 1975:2 25.962 27.202 ++++ 1975:3 25.803 2G.158 *+ 1 ! 1975:4 24.966 26.582 e++++ e 1976:1 27.075 26.984 1976:2 24.828 26.344 e++++ 1976:3 -26.659 27.523 e++ 1976:4 27.771 28.403 e+ 1977:1 28.346 29.753 *+++

                                                                                                     -e 1977:2 30.671    30,315
                                                                                                      -=

. 1977:3 30.489 30.120

• 1 1977:4 30.239 30.202

. A~ t Am. No. 2, (10/80)

  - . _ _ -- - _ _ - . . . ~       _ . , --     . _ . - . . - , .      .     ..         ..          . . _ .

107 i ENERGY MODEL FORECAST BY ANNUAL REPORT CATECORIES l

l I i

                                                                  ._ -- ._ _._______ _ Am_No. 2 9(10/80)        ,_

s Z~ 5 9 9 1 4 1 6 3 0 6 1 1 62 80 1 9 09 44 0 03 8 1 21 3 34 9 6 200 3 8 9 6 24 1 94 0 6 55 6 76 9 6 61 9 76 4 9 00 0 80 8 3 78 9 74 9 8 2 7 3 6 4 80 1 74 8 9 8 _ 5 _ 3 81 6 36 O 1 0 5 1 1 5 0 7 1 5 5 _ 7 9 8 4 1 1 3 _1 1 1 _ 3 35 67 70 92 900 32 44 56 00 1 6 7 26 _ 73 8 1 6 0 4 4 3 6 6 0 3 6 4 _ 7 95 79 43 1 4 1 44 85 05 80 64 3 74 _ 1 5 4 . _ 8 4 99 7 3 3 7 9 9 8 7 4 1 _ 7 9 2 88 1 6 6 3 5 3 3 1 6 2 _ 0 1 5 4 1 1 5 9 9 1 5 3 7 _ 9 8 6 3 1 1 3 _ 9 1 1 _ 2 65 26 70 23 200 30 1 0 79 00 53 9 53 _ 74 4 93 0 2 2 7 8 8 0 3 5 2 _ 4 95 85 93 54 5 54 1 4 64 80 04 6 14 _ 64 3 . _ 8 9 71 6 6 6 5 3 1 8 1 1 8 _ 3 9 7 78 1 5 5 1 9 0 3 5 0 5 _ 0 1 0 4 1 1 5 0 2 1 4 3 5 _ 4 8 6 3 1 1 3 _ 8 1 1 _ 2 32 77 1 6 90 900 35 60 24 00 84 7 44 _ 55 9 59 2 8 8 7 7 3 0 1 2 4 _ 7 S 66 36 43 04 0 53 74 32 80 05 6 23 _ 34 M 2 3 _ R 8 8 63 6 0 0 5 8 1 8 1 7 1 _ 4 I . 9 5 67 1 5 5 9 7 8 3 9 6 1 _ 9 FS 1 6 4 1 1 4 4 5 1 3 3 4 1 A M GG E O 7 5 2 1 1 3 - 7 N T Y I 1 1 - 2 I L S N R RA Y A A UR S P N 71 30 65 44 400 93 99 05 02 03 9 23 _ R4 TU TM E 1 . 29 4 0 0 2 8 4 0 5 9 2 _ 8 CT GSO C 06 03 83 3 2 07 09 53 6 68 0 38 _ 40 AA NAC S 1 2. 8 1 1 0. 7 _ 1 FN IC 8 1 56 5 3- 3 9 7 3 83 7 7 9 _ 2 U T ET S 9 1 56 1 4 4 7 7 8 3 2 2 9 _ 1 NR SRH T 1 2 4 1 1 4 8 2 1 0 4 2 _ 0 AO ACG N _ MF CFI E 7 4 2 3 _ 6 O 1 1 E L M 1 1 _ 2 EY RN L ST OO& I UI FI A 44 96 48 1 9 515 90 83 06 85 73 3 33 _ 55 AC TR T 6 43 1 2 731 4 5 0 4 0 0 1 _ 1 CI DPE R 25 96 32 3 606 45 28 57 1 3 95 7 55 _ 43 R AMW U 0 3. 4 - 1 _ ST OUO C 8 9 39 5 4 - 634 6 6 6 9 8 1 6 _ 5 TC LSP 9 9 45 1 6 384 4 0 2 3 4 9 4 _ 6 NE N S 1 7 4 8 1 6 4 4 8 2 9 3 0 5 EL HOA A ME TCN G 6 2 0 3 3 L U A 1 1 2 IE OHI L AT S S A TU MI R 71 97 28 1 0 01 0 20 22 31 1 9 02 8 42 _ 62 RT E U U 7 . 46 9 1 290 4 9 8 . 4 9 7 1 _ 3 UI L C T 50 24 82 80 962, 28 8 75 2 90 00 3 CT D L A 9 1 8.1 1 9. 2 1 1 1 _ 5.1 S D N 7 2 33 4 1 037 5 4 1 7 2 2 2 _ 6 SB I 9 5 35 1 4 31 9 2 5 6 4 2 2 9 _ 6 AU M 1 4, 4 5 1 3 4 4 0, 2 8 3 8 _ 7 GS 6 1 1 1 0 2 _ 2 LO 1 1 _ 2 AT R U4

                                                       )                                                           T3 S                                                           A T                                                           ND H                                                               N G                                                           TA I                                                           A L                                                           H3 T                                                           T3 C                         E I                         E                                                           SS R                         R T                         T                                                           E M 'C C                         S                                   T                       UI E                                                       G     C                       SS L  R                         .                           N    E                       S LO        LE     EO        O             LO         O     O    MO     I   O F        O           O  AN AG        A -    YG        G             CG     LG        G    UG     AG    F        G           G      I T A       1 L    CA     LA               NA     AA    GA       NA      LA   E        A            A O O         0L     T     A                I      T      N        I      T                             I   E R          SR     TR               (R     OR     IR      MR      CR   S        R            R  RS T. A      T. A. UA    OA    S             .A       A  RA      UA      AA    A       A            A  AO LE        SS     CE           L          NE     T. E   UE      LE      FE   G        E        SE    NH AY       RR         Y T. YE  A          UY     LY    TY       AY      UY        LY           EY    ET I        tE     R      E     P          M      A      C               N     L   A            L      C T M      uY     EM     LM   I SN            M  I   M  AM       RM     AM    A   I   M        AM    ST NO       GO     PO    AO    CPE        &O     RO     FO       EO     MO    R   CO            SO        P ER        1 T       E  SR    I OD            R T R    UR       SR       - R U   RR               R  SE DF        SS     HF    EF    N - N      TF     SF     NF      IF       NF   T   EF            HF    I C I         UU     W     L      UOI               U     A        A      O     A    M            W     HX SH               MH    OH MCM           'V H   DH     MH       KH      NH   N    MH           MH    TE O

CC HC OC NC OC C EC R% . . .C

                                   %   W%      .   . . G%    I    %   .C%       .C
                                                                                  %     .C
                                                                                         %   . C%            L%

A8 C A8C A 8 C D A  :

                  .                     .                 .      .                                .          T     E 1                      I                !      V                                 V            O     T          .

I  ! I T O

                                                       !                                                           N zo* *[ OO g*                   O~

        ,P                                                                (D                                                                /%

MIDDLE SOUTH LOA 0 FORECASTING SYSTEM MWH CONSUMPTION FORECAST LOUISIANA POWER 4 LIGHT COMPANY NATURAL GAS CURT AILMENTS SCENARIO 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 I . RESIDENTI AL. TOT AL 9.543.856 10.060.631 10.578.862 11.086.599 11.593.574 12.118.339 12.660.437 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.0 4.6 4.5 4.5

            %CH FROM YEAR AGO A. CUSTOMERS, TOT AL                      514.304       526.930      539.653      552.448       565.301        578.219        591.214 108.698       118.934      129.677       140.903       152.592        164.737       177.341

8. CUSTOMERS.ALL-ELECTRIC 18.556' 19.092 19.598 20.067 20.500 20.957 21.413 C. MWH PER CUSTOMER 2.2 2.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2

            %CH FROM YEAR AGO
      !!. bHOLESALE, TOTAL                           175.958       182.076       188.079      193.906       199.600       205.418        211.329 3.6           3.5          3.3          3.1           2.9            2.9            2.9
            %CH FROM YEAR AGO A. MUNICIPALS                             175.958        182.076      188.079      193.906       199.608        205.418       211.329 0             0            0             0            0              0              0

9. CO-OPS O O O O O O O C. MINDEN III. GOV'T & MUN.(INCL. STREETLIGHTS) 584.123 606.223 627.363 647.856 668.274 689.040 709.578 4.1 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0

            %CH FROM. YEAR AGO IV. INDUSTRI AL. TOT AL                    19.334.609 20.429.529 21.798.230 23.044.815       5.7 24.399.319 5.9 25.R86.0276.1 27.474.285 6.1
             %CH FROM YEAR AGO                            7.0           5.7           6.7 A. MANUFACTURING                      15.784.844     16.691.441   17.638.723 18.646.236 19.733,999 20.946.099 22.239.912 6.7           5.7           5.7          5.7           5.8            6.1            6.2
             %CH FROM YEAR AGO

8. KAISER ALUMINUM 1.138.800 1.138.800 1.138.800 1.138.800 1.138.800 1.138.000 1.138.800 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

             %CH FROM YEAR AGO
 >         C. NON-M ANUF ACTURING                  1,661.027     1.727.828    1.791.288    1.852.361      1.913.068      1.974.907     2.035.861 4.5           4.0          3.7          3.4           3.3            3.2            3.1 f           %CH FROM YEAR AGO 1.407.418     1.613.452      1.026.221     2.059.713 f        D. NATURAL GAS EFFECT                      749.938       871.460    1.229.419
=

es V. COMMERCIAL

             %CH FROM YEAR AGO h         4,073.396 4.5 4.237.215 4.0 4.392.841 3.7 4.542.613 3.4 4.691.487 3.3 4.843.137 3.2 4.992.616 3.1 o

s, 46.048;245

 @j    TOTAL MWH S ALES                          33.711.991 35.515.674 37.583.375 39.515.788 41.552.262 43.741.961 ms           %CH FROM YEAR AGO                             6.2           5.4          5.3           5.1           5.2            5.3           5.3 g NOTE: THIS SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT NATURAL GAS CURT AILMENTS CAUSE MANUF ACTURING F1RMS EXCEPT THOSE IN SIC'S 33 AND 34 TO SUBSTITUTE ELECTRICITY FOR NATURAL GAS.

[ [N 9 9 9 1 53 8 23 4 4 7 09 83 1 48 86 62 4 38 7 41 4 2 45 1 32 3 5 2 40O 1 3 3 5 2 03 6 22 2 4 8 1 4 55 9 6 0 9 78 8 95 1 9 2 00 0 80 8 3 1 03 2 42 1 2 4 4 3 3 7 1 2 63 3 12 8 3 9 60 3 55 7 4 8 e 0 2 1 2 4 5 3 6 4 3 6 1 5 94 00 33 0 13 57 28 52 88 45 4OO 73 1 2 8 0 8 5 4 4 1 39 4 5 5 1 80 82 7 92 74 33 72 01 22 2 1 2 1 5 65 8 7 8 5 8 1 3 9 0 05 4 7- 7 3 1 6 1 0 3 4 4 2 3 0 3 9 3 75 2 0 8 1 1 62 2 2 8 8 5 1 3 8, . 7 0 1 2 3 5 0

6. 3 3 6 1

G3 82 00 93 1 23 36 90 66 88 1 5 1 OO 33 3 0 0 7 2 5 4 75 2 8 8 8 1 2 9 52 34 61 22 2 72 75 85 80 1 04 30 7 2 5 8 3 4 2 4 9 3 72 3 1 1 4 7 0 4 0 5 3 3 1 6 9 3 54 2 4 3 4 6 1 1 5 62 2 2 8 8 9 1 5 8 1 2 3 5 8 5 3 2 5 1 4OO 23 62 1 2 00 93 6 03 26 00 70 09 46 6 0 2 5 5 9 S 68 0 9 9 9 4 02 64 M 1 54 02 21 22 2 62 1 5 85 00 1 2 3, R 6 9 4 8 1 4 5 8 I . 9 2 48 3 5 5 6 4 4 5 FS 3 3 8 4 0 3 6 9 4 42 2 5 5 A 1 9 62 2 2 7 0 5 1 2 1, GG O 4 7 1 2 3 5 5 N L O 4 5 IL 3 2 RA T Y I 1 S N R UR V A A 23 22 00 6 9 86 57 TU S P N 62 66 80 67 6OO 36 6 1 8 4 3 CT 6 0 3 0 TM E 1 74 6 2 2 92 05 95 80 32 9 52 74 AA GSO C 84 79 72 32 3 FN NAC S 5 8 3 8 0 7 0 1 U I C 9 1 04 2 9 9 1 4 2 3 NR 2 2 6 5 5 3 1 S 9 6 31 2 AO e TET 7 3 1 1 2 8 4 1 SRH T 1 3 62 2 2 MF AOG N 2 6 1 2 2 5 3 CFI E 4 3 2 5 EY E L M 1 ST RN L UI OO4 I 06 75 00 08 2 30 49 AC T I A 73 54 81 48 4OO 0/ 2 2 7 9 CI 06 . 8 8 2 . 0 5 0 R TR T 1 1 2 72 95 25 80 22 6 82 94 O9E R 24 50 32 22 ST AMD U 4 9 9 4 8 4 2 2 7 TC OUO C 9 2 72 2 3 3 7 8 6 NE 1 0 2 2 2 4 2 6 3 5 EL LSP 9 8 7 7 8 1 1 5 2 7 N S 1 7 62 2 2 . ME A 2 2 5 0 L lHOACN G 3 0 3 4 2 1 5 IE u A 1 AT 0HI L TU 5CS A 49 49 00 49 6 59 81 RT MI R 04 95 61 88 8OO 28 9 0 4 UI 6 . 7 7 8 1 6 0 5 E U U 7 07 22 2 72 1 5 75 00 52 9, 02 65 CT L O T 44 36 82 S O L A 3 6 8 5 9 9 6 SB D N 9 '4 49 1 7 7 9 1 3 = 0 AU 2 0 6 3 9 0 I 9 1 08 2 1 1 7 5 1 0, 3, 1 - 4 GS _ M 1 2 61 2 2 1, 9 3 1 2 2 5 - 8 LO 3 2 . 4 AT 1 2 R U4

                                                                                    )                                                                                            T3 A

S ND T N H TA G A I L H3 T T3 C E SS _ I E R R E M 'C T T UI S T C G C SS E . N E S L R O O MO O F O O AN LO LE EO O LO I RG G G I AG A- MG G CG LG G UG F A O NA AA GA NA UA E A TA TL OA LA IE O OL T A I T N I T R RS TR (R OR IR MR CR S R R T, A. SR A RA UA AA A A A AO T. A UA OA S .A G E SE NH LE SS CE L NE T. E UE LE FE LY EY ET RR Y T. EY A UY LY TY AY UY AY C N L A L C EE R E P M A IM AM ST I EM LM ISN M I M AM RM AM A TM MM RO FO EO MO R CO SO P NO OO PO AO CPE 8O R U RR R SE SR IOO R TR UR SR ER TT R SF NF IF NF T EF HF IC DF SS HF EF NN TF A O A M W HX UU W L UOI U A MH I KH NH N MH TE O SH CC MH OH MCM 'V H DH MH C OC C C EC R% . . .C HC W% . . . OC G% NC I% .% .C% .% . C% L% A  : A8C A 8 C D E A8 C . .

                                                                                                                                                              .            T I             V                                                        V             O       T I                                1 I            I T       O 1

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19 60 09 75 700 26 43 42 00 07 0 47 _83 3 70 0 5 5 0 3 1 0 1 1 8 _ 0 S 31 12 92 56 56 80 12 1 92 _ 25 M 63 50 1 _ R 3 5 4 _ 4 I . 0 1 91 6 9 9 9 8 3 8 1 7 7 2 6 0 3 8 4 7 _ 0 Fc 0 5 32 2 2 5 _3 a 2 4 73 2 2 9 0 0 1 6 _ G P. 9 1 1 1 2 6 6 _ 8 N 1 5 4 _ 7 Il Ra UD 48 96 98 05 000 95 63 02 00 36 2 96 _ 93 TH 8 06 1 0 0 3 4 3 0 4 7 5 _ 2 CT 4 2 06 26 80 92 0 42 _ 1 5 AA 03 46 81 42 1 _ FN 2 9 0 _ 9 U 0 0 57 5 2 2 6 0 0 8 1 0 3 20 2 7 7 0 3 1 3 0 7 0 _ 3 ND 2 7 73 2 2 9 0 6 1 6 6 4 _ 3 An _ Ms 8 8 8 1 2 5 6 _ 4 3 _ 7 Ey 1 4 St Ut 88 27 78 64 600 95 82 61 00 05 3 05 _ 1 2 Ae 0 80 5 6 6 0 8 0 . 0 1 7 7 _ 4 . Ct M 82 8 62 56 46 80 92 4 02 _ 55 o E O 43 46 31 _ Sv T Y I 1 2 0 6 _ 9 Te S N R 0 1 14 5 5 5 3 2 0 8 A 4 19 2 6 6 8 6 4 3 4 4 3 _ 8 Nr Y A 0 2 _ 5 Es S P N 2 0 72 2 2 8 1 3 1 5 1 TM E . . _ Mr 5 6 1 2 5 6 _ 0 L GSO C 8 4 3 _ 7 IE NAC S 1 AT IC Tu TET S 00 24 9 84 _ 21 RT SRH T 28 21 08 1 5 1C0 94 21 20 2 2 7 . 2 0 2 2 2 _ 8 . U1 AOG N 4 53 1 1 42 06 06 00 42 8 82 _ 25 CT v CFI E RN OOS L E M I L 0 0 0 43 1 8 76 71 98 91 4 2 52 9 5 5 9 5 6 2 9 1 2 4 8 3 0 8 7 5 2 8 _ 5 _ 0 SR AH GS 4 FI A 2 3 62 2 2 8 5 2 1 4 6 0 _ 1 TR T 2 4 1 2 4 6 _ 7 LO DPE R 7 3 _ 6 AT AMW U 1 4 R OUO C U4 LSP ) T1 N S A HOA A S T ND TCN G H N U A TA OHI L G A I SWS A H1 MI R L T T1 E U U E L O T C SC D L A I E R R E* D N Mr I T T C S T Uf M G C SC E S L R . N E LO LE EO O LO O O MO I O F O O AN AG - MG G CG LG G UG RG F G G I TA A'L T OA LA NA AA GA NA UA E A A O A T N I T IF O OL T I CR S R R R4 R SR TR (R OR I R MR T. A T. A. UA OA S .A A RA UA AA A A A AO LE SS CE L NE T. E UE LE FE G E SE NH AY AR Y T. YE A UY LY TY AY UY LY EY ET C I LE R E P M A C N L A L TM MM EM LM ISN M I M AM RM AM A I M AM ST PO AO CPE &O RO FO EO MO R CO SO P NO 0O R TR UR SR - R U RR R SE _ ER T! R SR I OD DF SS HF EF NN TF SF NF IF NF T EF HF IC I UU W L UOI U A A O A M W HX SH CC MH OH MCM 'V H DH MH KH NH N MH MH TF OC NC C OC C EC R% . . C HC W% . . . G% I% .C% .% .C

                                                                                              %        . C%          L%

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CIDDLE SOUTH LOAD FCRECASTING SYSTEU ~ MdH CONSUMPTION FORECAST # LOUISIANA POnER & LIGHT COMPANY NATURAL GAS CURTAILMENTS SCENARIO TOT A L MONTHLY FORECASTS FCR 1979 FOR AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1979 JAN FE8 MAR APR MAY JUN JUL RESIDENTIAL. TOTAL 406562 397332 356435 348134 409579 620297 769410 830709 852397 666763 413572 373386 6452577 433249 CUST'S.RESID. TOTAL 428256 429030 429891 430709 431570 432648 433876 434954 54226 435801 54726 436599 55222 437446 55722 438210 56226 53467 50738 51219 51711 52200 52691 53200 53717 CUST'S.ALL-ELEC. 1.436 1.774 1 931 1.956 1.531 0.948 0.848 14.892 0.952 0.927 0.829 0.810 0.950 MdH/CUST 113561 114369 1541811 UHO L E S A L E . T O T A L 117825 116063 101696 100107 106707 144209 163391 177487 166518 119891 14814 15916 15339 10803 9312 8647 130920 8532 8772 7911 8196 9734 12944 MUNICIPALS 36559 84265 89328 123620 138594 151688 141296 101432 96602 98076 1313691 CO-OPS 102067 100065 9883 9883 7646 7646 7646 97200 7225 7225 7225 7645 7645 7645 9883 MINDEN 38821 39885 40550 38003 35867 33538 425241 32224 32266 31257 32152 33529 37150 GOvi&MUN(INCL STRTLITES) INDUSTRIAL. TOTAL 950369 883496 847623 952500 942296 988631 961561 986867 1004595 979359 977114 980481 11454892 MANUFACTURING B50390 780861 744969 848354 832348 867258 834750 857027 872721 855165 855708 864232 10061783 19929 19929 19929 19929 19929 19929 19929 247941 KAISER ALUMINUM 22860 22860 22860 19929 19929 72918 76849 79342 80841 74625 69302 63609 822990 60996 61171 58710 60653 63973 322178 NON-MANUFACTURING 23565 26045 28526 30034 30569 31104 31640 32175 32710 NAT G*S EFFECT 16123 18604 21084 COMMERCIAL 214343 214958 206307 213136 224004 256237 270050 278811 284076 262234 243531 223526 2892014 1725299 22766536 TOTAL MWH SALES 1721323 1644115 1543317 1646030 1716916 2046524 2203233 2321758 2348136 2066240 1783644 h 2 w w 8 O O O

~

0w 4, 96 4 1 515 9 0 0 8 83 3 - 5 L 8 43 1 2 731 4 7 0 4 1 0 1 1 AR0 2 96 3 3 606 4 8 5 1 57 5 - 4 TO8 9 39 4 634 6 8 6 9 1 1 6 5

       ,           OF9         9   45     5  6     384    4  0   2   3   59        4 0

6

                                                                                               . 5 T        1  7   4      1  8     1 6    4  4   8   2   93 6                             2   0                 3       = 3
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     ,                                                       1   1
                       -       0   35     3  0     000    3  9   9   9    38       2       - 7

_ - 4 43 7 3 3 7 6 6 2 06 8 - 7

                       - C     8   06     8  0     0      9  3   0   9    03       6        -     8
                        - E    3   92        9 9          4  0   3   9    34       3        -     1
                        - D    9   46     0               3  7   4   1    73       3        -     4
                       -       3   4                         0   9                 2        - 7
                       -                                     1                             - 1
                       -       0   08 6      5     500    6  4   6   9   90        2        - 7
                       -       0   47     7  2     2      0  7   0   2    1 2      0        - 0
                       - V     2   20     9  7     7      4  4   9   9    51       6        - 4
                       - O     6   82        9     9      7  8   4   9   91    -   4       - 6
                       - N     3   46     0               3  6   3   1   73        5       - 0
                       -       4   4                         0   9                 2       - 8
                       -                                     1                             - 1
                        -                                                                   - 9
                        -      0   1 0    5  1     1 00   7  3   1   9    1 1      1
                        -      9   63     7  8     8      3  6   5   2    17       6       - 4
                        - T    0   35     5  2     2      6  2   8   9    68       1        - 4
                       - C     3   71        1     1      9  1   1   9    53       4        - 9
                        - O    0   46     1  1     1      3  7   3   1    83       7        - 9
                        -      7   4                         0   9                 2        - 0
                        -                                    1                              - 2
                        -                                                          7
                        -      0   84     9  4     400    6  1   2   9    73                   - 8
                        -      4   28     0  9     9      7  4   2   2    62       8        -    7
                        - P    7   59     0  9     9      7  0   5   9    96       9             5
                        - E    6   60        5     5      2  0   2   9    33       0             6
                        - S    9   46     2  1     1      4  9   4    1   93       0         -   4
                          -    8   4                         0   9                 3        - 3 1                              - 2

_ 4 86 3 6 600 3 5 3 9 94 7 - 0

                        -      4   43     8  9     9      7  4   1   2    27       0        -     0
                       - G     3   64     9  5     5      0  8   3   9    23       4         -    3 0- U        2   50        6     6      2  0   5   9    23       5        -     7 8- A        8   46     1  1     1      4  7   2    1   93       9          -   0 9-          8   4                         0   9                 2         -    3 M         1 -                                       1                               - 2

_ E O - 7 0 9 9 76 2 - 5 T Y I R- 0 48 2 7 700 S N R O- 6 58 2 4 4 4 5 5 2 32 2 - 5 Y A A F - L 4 58 8 4 4 9 0 6 9 31 1 _ 0 S P N - U 9 49 5 5 0 5 2 9 93 6 - 7 TM E SJ 0 45 1 1 1 4 4 0 1 83 8 - 9 GSO C T - 8 4 0 9 2 = 1 NAC S S- 1 - 2 I C A - TET S C 3 03 3 0 136 8 9 0 9 27 4 - 8 SRH T E 0 1 3 7 0 964 4 1 5 2 05 1 - 9 AOG N R N 0 33 4 0 486 0 3 2 9 37 2 - 5 CFI E O - U 2 39 2 307 9 0 3 9 42 0 - 3 _ E L M F - J 5 45 1 6 1 4 3 7 3 1 83 7 - 9 RN L - 6 4 1 1 0 9 2 - 1 OOS I Y- 1 - 2 FI A L-TR T H- 9 66 5 6 836 3 0 7 9 59 9 - 3 ._ DPE R T - 9 1 8 7 6 474 3 9 3 2 56 5 - 3 AMW U NY 5 27 9 5 176 2 7 5 9 02 0 - 2 OUO C OA 0 28 2 047 5 1 5 9 42 7 - 7 LSP MM 3 45 0 2 1 0 3 2 9 1 73 3 - 4 _ N S - 4 4 1 1 0 8 2 - 8 HOA A - 1 - 1 TCN G - 21 2 - 2 U A - 8 56 1 5 456 2 0 8 9 OHI L - 3 56 3 3 444 8 7 3 2 28 5 - 5 SWS A - R 0 32 8 6 546 7 5 6 9 27 7 - 7 MI R - P 6 18 5 897 3 4 2 9 01 4 - 4 E U U - A 6 45 0 1 9 3 3 1 1 73 2 - 7 L O T - 3 4 1 0 9 2 _ 7 D L A - 1 _ 1 D N - I - 4 99 7 5 005 1 6 9 9 53 5 - 0 M - 3 34 5 2 91 2 3 8 5 2 09 1 - 6

                        =   R  5   57      8  9    242    8  7   6    9   92       3          - 3 A  7   07        7     827   2  3    4   9   71        7          - 9
                         = M    7   45     0  1       0    3  0   8   1   63        1          - 4
                    - -        3   4          1       1      9   7                 2          - 6
                         -                                                                     - 1
                         -      3   89     8  6    1 05    4 4 6      9   45        0          -   3
                         -      2   72     5  2     91 2   9  9   1   2    40       3          -   4
                         - 8    0   62     9  1     172    0  1   7   9    78       4          -   4
                         - E    0   97        3     967    3  4   2   9   00        6          -   8
                         - F    2  35      0  3        1  3  4    2   1   73        2          - 5
                        -      4   4          1       1      9   8                 2         - 7
                        -                                         '                           - 1
                         -      2   45     3  5     005    9  9   1   9   37        2          - 3
                         -      9   12     8  9     432    4 6    8   2   41        8         -   6
                         - N    5   97     9  9     982    8  1  3    9   53        7          -   3
                        - A     0   86        4    887    3   8  7    9   00        5         -   3
                        - d    3   35     0   3       1   3  1   9    1   73       2           -  4
                         -      4   4         1       1      0    8                 2          -   8
                         -                                   1                                 -   1
                                                          )

S E T L I A L G T . T N L OC R M I A T L U RT S T T. LE L S A G N UC E O DE A T N I TE L I - T L O I M CF A T. SL O S C R U AF S L EL L N T. U L FE A T T. A I L T A U L H

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0 $Y 4

r MIDDLE SOUTH LOAD FORECASTING SYSTE"J $ MWH CONSUMPTION FORECAST LOUISIANA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY NATURAL GAS CURTAILMENTS SCENARIO TOTAL MONTHLY FORECASTS FOR 1981 __.._-_______.____...._..._______..________...____.---.....---___-.____.....---------..----FOR AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1981 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY UUN JUL RESIDENTIAL. TOTAL 455121 444792 399019 387913 456362 691100 859255 936637 951922 747071 463422 418402 7211017 455023 CUST'S.RESID. TOTAL 449787 450589 451490 452347 453248 454377 66065 455657 66674 456707 67274 457694 67871 458553 68466 459460 69063 460281 69664 66390 CUST'S.ALL-ELEC. 63188 63745 64319 64891 65465 1.887 2.000 1.633 1.011 0.905 15.846 1.014 0.980 0.884 0.859 1.008 1.523 2 053 MwH/CUST 17399 16768 11832 10200 9471 143204 9612 8669 8950 10629 14132 16194 WHOLES ALE . TOT A L 9349 16768 11832 10200 9471 143204 8669 8950 10629 14132 16194 17399 0 CONICIPALS 9349 9612 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Co-OPS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CINDEN 44536 45282 41841 39473 36832 472719 35928 35977 3484l 35813 37361 4t435 43340 GOVT &MUN(INCL STRTLITES) INDUSTRIAL, TOTAL 1244920 1161746 1115911 1258237 1240887 1297659 1239850 1267365 1287668 1279572 1273914 1273899 14 MANUFACTURING 1039318 955675 912621 1052303 1030608 1076105 1013394 1038257 1057135 1030748 1033965 1043413 122835 94900 94900 94900 94900 94900 94900 94900 *1138800 KAISER ALUMINUM 94900 94900 94900 94900 94900 75485 75701 72667 75058 79150 90172 95161 98238 100087 118803 110353 101314 1092140427FJ9 NON-M A NU F A C TUR ING 36482 36396 35971 35546 35121 34696 34272 35217 35470 35723 35976 36229 NAT GAS EFFECT COMMERCI AL 241292 241984 232245 239921 253058 288447 304463 314342 320279 290500 269778 247612 3243920 TOTAL MWH SALES 1986643 1894144 1790710 1930865 1998340 2332847 2463189 2580375 2622020 2370642 2056612 1986102 26 2 e w w o O O

~

9 O

l 117 i i i s l i J 1 2 1 1

l PEAK DEMAND MODEL INDEX I

I f i TABLE OF HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED VALUES OF PEAK AND ENERGY . . . . . . .. . ........ . ...... . . . . Page 119  ! 1 ] SUMMER PEAK REGRESSION RESULTS AND 4 PLOT OF FITTED VS. ACTUAL . . . . . . .... .. . .. . .. .. . . . Page 1. - I i i J i' l 6 i k , 6 1 1 i i

t J

l I - o r I Am No. 2, (10/80) .

119 LOUISIANA POWER & LICHT COMPANY g ENERCY AND PEAK DDtAND k 1967 - 2003 ACTUAL pg ,, ENERGY *  % DDtAND  % YEAR 1967 5.913,948 19.2 1,284 11.1 1968 6,999,630 18.4 1,498 15.a 1969 7.983,323 14.1 1,779 19.2 1970 8,726,057 9.3 1,872 5.2 1971 9,765,689 11.9 2,096 12.0 1972 11,526,449 18.0 2,389 14.0 1973 12,497,925 8.4 2,563 7.3 1974 12,957,931 3.7 2,692 5.0 1975 14,099,279 8.8 2,883 7.1 1976 16,088,493 14.1 3,180 10.3 1977 18,340,81R 14.0 3.515 10.5 1 1978 20,110.464 9.6 3,852 9.6 FORECAST 1979 22,766,536 13.2 4,220 9.6 1980 23,565,415 3.5 4,156 -1.5

     .      1981          26,012,488            10.4                       4.664                  12.2
 %)         1982          27,194,375               4.5                     4.934                   5.8 1983          28,403,647               4.4                     5,166                   4.7 1984          29,'907,177              5.3                     5,454                   5.6 1985          31,735,368               6.1                     5,781                   6.0 1986          33,711,991               6.2                     6,122                   5.9 2

1987 35,515,674 5.4 6,443 5.2 1988 37,583,375 5.8 6,800 5.5 1989 39,515,788 5.1 7.131 4.9 1000 41,552,262 5.2 7,480 4.9 1991 43,741,961 5.3 7,850 4.9 1992 46,048,245 5.3 8,238 4.9 1993 48,406,648 5.1 8,633 4.8 1994 50,767,994 4.9 9,029 4.6 199"5 53,131 '35 4.7 9,429 4.4 1996 55,558,692 4.6 9,835 4.3 1997 58,104,353 4.6 10,259 4.3 ! 1998 60,833,745 4.7 10,707 4.4 1999 63,847,536 5.0 11,195 4.6 t 2000 67,105,282 5.1 11,716 47 2001 70,589,541 5.2 12,269 4.7 2002 74,330,129 5.3 12,860 4.8 200. 78,304,208 5.3 13,483 4.8

• Millions of kilowatt-hours Am. No. 2, (10/80)

           ** Meeawatra

U o SUki/ER VECAWATT DE;/A*40 UINUS KAISER ALUMINJM PEAK PLUS HOOKER CHEMICAL ENERGY MINUS H00MER CHEMICAL PEAK OEDIWARY tEAST SQUARES

  ^EEKLY@ FRIDAY ( 1967:22 TO 1977:34)              535 OBSERVAT IONS ( 302 0:.11 T T ED)

CEPENDENT VARIAOLE: MC A LP 16

• DV-SUMh APE AK+ ( PLUS'CP E AK-SU'4 HOPE AK)

COEFFICIENT STD. ERROR T-STAT INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

1) 0.0120843 0.0009031 13.38 TRWSL Ar

• t (CDDHRN0t A DV/

CDONO.AD+DV*24)**.5)

2) 0.001tT414 0.0003633 3.062 SUMTNVdSLAD*((CDDHRNOLA*

DV/CDUNOLADoDV*24)**.9)

3) 1.06527 0.0275G 38.65 ( S UM T N*AD A S E L A D +

SUMINDDASELAD+1.4* TRDASELAD)/24 R-B AR SQU ARED: 0.9708 (RELAT IVE TO Y=0 RBSQ: 0.9986) DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC: 1.0434 ADJUSTED FOR 9 GAPS. STANDARD ERROR OF THE REGRESSION: 87.93 NORMALIZED: 0.03876 WHERE: f.tGW LP 1 G

• DV-SUMK APE AM+ SUMMER MEGAWATT DEMAND PAINUS K AISER ALUMINUM PEAK (PLUSHCPEAK-SUMHOPEA4) PLUS HOOKER CHEMICAL ENERGY MINUS HOOKER CHEMICAL PEAK SUMMER TOT AL RESIDENTI AL WEATHER SENSITIVE DEMAND TRWSLAD COOLING DEGREE DAYS AT PEAK HOUR FOR NEW ORLEANS CDOHANGLA C00 LINS DEGREE DAYS - DAILY AVERAGE FOR MOUTH FOR NEW DRLEANS CDDNOLAD QUALITATIVE VARIABLE TO EXCLUDE NON-SUMMER DATA PolNTS FROM THE DV REGRESSION SUMTNVfSLAD SUMMER TOT AL NON-M ANUF ACTURING WEATHER SENSITIVE DEMAN7 SUMTN'JSASELAD SUMMER TOTAL NON-M ANUF ACTURING BASE DEMAND
• SUMINDEAStLa0 SUMMER INDUSTRIAL BASE DEMAND Z SUMMER TOTAL RESIDENTI AL dA55 DEMAND

,0 TRBASELAD l' O O E O O O

D, n

                                                                                            ,/' ,N

(' PLO: OF FITTED VERSUS ACTUAL RESULTS1 MGw L'is ,, -SUMKAPEAK+(PLUSHCPEAK-SUMHOPEAK) v

                                                                                                                                                   ;

DATE ACTUAL FITTED

• MARKS ACTUAL VALUES ,...-

CG/07/G8 1968:23 1.327.920 1.291.567

• 1968:24 1,421.128 1,324.737 -=

CG/14/08 e 06/21/G8 1968:25 1.292.172 1,279.3G7

                                                                                       -=
                                                                                                                                                     ;~

eS/28/68 1968:26 1,385.262 1.339.118 e 07/05/G8 1968:27 1.411.299 1,370.080 C7/12/08 1908:28 1.338.034 1.337.496 e

                                                                                       -e 07/19/G8       1968:29.1.379.777           1.295.330                     e U//26/C8       1968:30 1.410.693           1.382.746 1.398.594                     -o 08/02/68       1968:31 1.473.274

• 08/09/08 1968:32 1.442.614 1.431.450 e OS/16/G9 89G8:33 1.431.307 1,407.385 e

ed/ 23/19 1908:34 1.465.354 1.440.148 e 08/30iG8 1960:35 1,433.592 1.417.090 1968:35 1.253.525 1,339.799 e+ 09/06/68 e+ 09/13/08 1968:37 1.285.424 1.381.770 1969:23 1.302.190 1.3?1.953 ++ CG/CG/G9 e+ 06/13/G9 1AG9:21 1.500.064 1.548.201 1969:25 1.577.373 1.087.530 e+ OG/20/G9 e C6/27/69 1969:2G 1.651.437 1,692 985 o 07/04/b9 19G9:27 1.737.618 1.697.088 -o 07/ 11/G9 1969:23 1.777.004 1.691.15G

                                                                                             -o 07/18/69       1969:29 1.706.430            1.607.404                        e 07/25/69       1969:30 1.563.0GG            1.551.477                      -*

rG/01/G9 19G9:31 1,615.256 1,564.440 C8/08/69 1969'32 1,589.176 1.620.249 e 03/l5/G9 10G9:33 1,623.127 1.622.H99 e 08/22/09 19G9:34 1.693.581 1.669.112 19G9:35 1.571.906 1,G23.505 *+ 09/29/G9 o' 09/05/09 1939:36 1.554.612 1.555.521 09/12/99 1969:37 1,617.691 1.578.474

• 1969:39 1.52d.347 1.576.428 *+

09.'19/69 e++ U6/05/70 1970:23 1.278.617 1,401.602 e+ ty . OG/12/70 1970:24 1.655.830 1,712.G56 0G/19/70 1970:25 1,005.189 1.702.759

• k___)

OC/ 26/70 1970:2G 1.723.258 1.744..s45 e , C7/03/70 1970:27 1. 86 <l . 878 1.860.540 e 07/10/7d 1970:29 1.851.280 1.009.483 -o $3ygj 07/17/70 1970:29 1,797.571 1.704.592 -o C7/28/70 1970:30 1.827.586 1,763.G50

                                                                                                  -e 01/31/70        1970:31 1.BG1.749            1.789.965                            -e                                       ( ])

k 08/07/70 1970:32 1,846.494 1.78G.G44 e

• C8/14/70 1910:33 1.820.563 1.778.9G7 -e b3MEO Z c8/21/70 1970:31 1.814.920 1.722.791 e

! O 09/20/70 197 0 : 35 1.E6 7. 931 1.081.'312 -e hff

• 1,7G0.019 09/04/70 1970:3G 1.849.971 -e c===m

 ]4              09/11/10       1970:37 1.801.275            1.080.554 1970:3:1 1.827.333           1.702.615                            -e                                       7qg.

C9/18/70 -o f} 06/04/71 1971:23 1.859.058 1.779.195 o C{jyp i o 06/11//1 1971:24 1.902.875 1.911.365 e 2y 06/18//1 1971:25 2.046.143 2.031.449

• b o 03/25/71 1971:26 1,985.720 1.992.1H4 -=

07/02/71 1971:27 1.912.509 1,605.287

                                                                                                    -e                                                       ,,

07/C9/71 1971:29 1.921.548 1.799.083 -e oa 07/16/71 1971:29 2,12G.738 2.046.3G1 -e 07423/71 1971:30 2.069.891 2.014.998

I PLOT OF F11TED VERSus ACTUAL RESULTS1 MGSLPl6*DV-SUMKAPEAK+lPLUSHCPEAK-SUMHOPEAK) w Na 07/30/41 197t:31 1.8G1.643 1.853.083 e kJ 03/06/7. 1971:32 1.913.621 1.922.G41

• 00/13//1 6971 33 2.003.256 i.942.975 -.

00/20/71 1971:34 1.993.832 1.961.021 = OG/27/71 1971:35 2.092.937 2.002.147 -o 09/03/71 1971:3G 1.787.429 1.039.bh7 .+ 09/10/71 1971:37 1.7G9.320 1.822.511 e+ 09/17/71 1971:30 1.86G.334 1.929.HG2 e+ , OG/09/72 1972:?3 2.233.909 2.177.652 -e 0G/16/72 1972:23 2.110.245 2.180 267 e+ 06/23/12 1972:25 2.265.791 2.335.A99 ++ 0G/30/72 1972:2G 2 353.773 2.381 .s1 4 07/07/72 1972:27 2.174.285 2.27',.237 .+ 07/14/72 ta72*23 2.095.598 2.251.975 e++ 07/21/72 1972:24 2.208.774 2.392.948 +++ 07/28/72 1972:30 2.271.5G3 2.402.0i43 ++ 08/04/72 197?:31 2.320.886 2.431.490 ++ 00/11/72 1972:32 2.375.834 2.426.233 e+ C8/18/72 1972:33 2.257.365 2.227.S57 e 08/25/72 1972:34 2.411.408 2.400.G61 e dir01/72 1972:35 2.241.012 2.31E.H89 e+ e9/08/72 1972:3G 2.327.264 2.399.470 e+ e9;15/72 1972:37 2.307.585 2.354.173 e+ i3.0a/73 1973:23 2.144.411 2.152.059 e C6/15/73 1973:24 2.168.809 2.267.068 ++ 00/22/73 1973:25 2.377.293 2.429.051 e+ 00,29/73 1973:26 2.394.063 2.429.94G e 07.00/73 1973:27 2.440.744 2.40C.778

• 07/13/73 1973:20 2.495.269 2.458.782
• 07/20/73 1973:29 2.520.117 2.467.739 -*

07/27/73 1973:30 2.481.017 2.459.980 e 01,03/73 1973:31 2.427.835 2.430.101 e c8/10/73 1973:32 2.411.210 2.47*.736 ++ 08/17/73 1973:33 2.342.257 2.457.G06 e+ 08/24/73 1973:31 2.526.012 2.485.698 e 08/31/73 1973:35 2.351.799 2.393.~63 4 09,07/73 1973:3S 2.160.085 2.404.202 e+++ 09/14/73 1973:17 2.399.474 2.350.192 -e OG/07/74 8974:23 2.357.335 2.373.532 e c; g qed OG'14/74 1974:21 2.370.968 2.386.006 e , , CG/28/74 1974:25 2.514.255 2.514.193 e OG/20/74 sq74:04 2.12e oR4 2.477.H53 ei + + (f 3 07,05/74 1974:27 2.415.648 2,429.187 e 07/12/74 a'74:21 2.581.346 2.546 016 e h3450 07/19/74 '474:29 2.522.602 2.440.857 -o 07/26/74 1374:30 2.64:1.2G2 2.479.603 --e 00,02/74 1974:31 2.554.157 2.502.5'to -e g* OP/09/74 1974:32 2.533.636 2.541.152 e ggggg e 08,16/74 1974:33 2.509.383 2.491.145 -e g CH/23/74 1974:34 2.640.948 2.541.743 -o o 09/30/74 1974:35 2.397.629 2.446.193 e+ 09/06/74 1974:3G 1.89G.100 2.114.900 +++ N 09/13/74 1974:37 2.2Ga.480 2.342.907 e+ ?3Ed OG/06/75 1975:23 2.64G.150 2.506.146 --e

 -s    OG/13;75    a975:24 2.429.264   2.489.606                             e+                          h53
  $    03/20.'75   1975:25 2.717.952   2.645.537                                   -e                 i, 1975:23 2.63G.613                                                                  u
 *%    0G/27/75                        2.601.787                                   e
  $    07 04/75    1975:27 2.612.340   2.592.661                                 e s'    07/11/75 1975:29 2.804.070      2.630.139                                   --e
             /75   1975:29 2.718.608   2.571.442                                 --e
             /75   1975:30 2.724.877   2.531.005                                 --.

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                           "; O O O O C O G O O O u C' O  O C ' O f.,                                         C . O O O C' 3 V L. O O 0 0 0 U Q O Q j                                                                                                                                                                                             Ame No e 2, (10/80) 1
         . . _ . . _ , . , , . _ .                 ~                - . - , .         , _.                   . . _ -                        _
                                                                                                                                                           . . - .                  . . ~ _ _ . _ _ _ . . . . . .

ECONOMIC !!ODEL I?:DEX RECRESSIO?; RESFLTS AND ENDOCEN U AND EXOCENOUS VATIABI.ES PLOTS OF FITTED HIST 0't ICAL F0preAsi vs ArTt'AL PACE PACE PACE

                                                                                       .. . .                . .                 139            191              261 DIPLOY!!ENTS. EXCEPT ACRICULTURE                     ..
                                                                                           . .                       .           142            106              2M
       .NUFACTURING                          .            .        . .
                                                                                                                     .           149            208              276 Food and kindred prodt te                       .       .        . .         . . .                     .

Textile mill products & Apparel and other finished 211 2.8 products made from fabrics and similar materials . . . Lun'her and wood products, except furniture & 213 280 Furniture and fixtures & Paper and allied products . . . 152 154 216 282 Printing, publishing, and allied industries . . . . . . Che:sicals and allied products & Rubber and miscellaneous 2S4

                                                                                   . . . .               . . .                   155            213 plastics products           .. ..              . .
                                                                                                    . .               .          157            220               286 Petroleum refining and related industries . . . .

158 222 088 Stone, clay. dass, and concrete products . . . ..

                                                                                                          .       .              160             225              290 Pri::ary metal industries .             .       .       . .

Fabricated metal products, except ma-hinery and 226 292 161 transportation equipment .. . . . . . . Machinery. except electrical & Electrical and electronic machinery, equipment, and supplies 228 294 162

            & Tra sportation equipment                      . .         .                    ..           .. .

lteasuring, analyzine, and controlling instruments; photo:traphic. medical and optical goods; watches 231 296 and cincks 6 Miscellaneous manufacturing tudustries . . . 164

                                                                                         . . .. . .                     .         144            199              269

.0::-!!A:.UFACTURI:.G . .. ... . . . . .

Construction & Finance, insurance. Real Estate . .... . . . 137 188 262

                                                                                         .. ...                     ..            141            194               266

tining . . . . . . ... ... . . .

j I . . . . . . . . 145 201 270 - Transportation . ...... .

                                                                 . .            . . . .. . .. . .                                 147             204              272 Services        . .       . ...            .. .

148 236 274 Wholesale trade & Retail trade. ... . . . . . .... . . l l':Cw E 174 242 312 Personal Income . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . 175 244 315 Per Canita Personal Income ... . . . .. . . . . UA(;ES

      !!nurly Earnin;s of Production Workers--All                                                     ,

179 243 Manufacturing (U.S.) . . .. . . . . .. . . 129 130 180 250 ikurly Ft %1nf3 of Production Workers. Manufacturing 1

                                                                                                  . . .. . .                       167            236               303        l M in imum '..* age     . .. . .                .. . . . . . .                       .

l Am. No. 2, (10/80) l

126 o .2 FCO?::NIC ?:0 DEL INDEX (CO?.i'D) E?:DOCE::C '9 A':D RECRLCST(r; FFT! TS A :D EXOCE::oUS VARIABI.ES PIJJTS OF FITTED li!9T07.! CAT. FORTCAST VS M'T il PACE PACE PACE P:: ICES Carperate Inceme Tax . . . . . . . . . . 133 184 255 Cen 2.302 2.386 2.493 2 545 2.650 2.727 2.912 3.Ce4 3.2H2 AHEViLA 2.219 6.8 5.9 6.4

  ;cH                                                  4.5                                            3.8           3.6          4.5            2.1          4.1           2.9 1.000        3.191         3.357 AHLM                             2.318                                                           2.390        2 457         2.530        2.613          2.716        2.827 5.2 2.8          3.0            3.3          3.9           4.1             6.4          6.1
  >C H                                                                                                3.1 0.944          0.973        1.003          1.047         1.109        1.169 Cul500lHN5                         0 696                                                          0.306        0.918         0.930                                                                                 5.4 1.2           1.2          1.3            1.6          3.0           3.0             4.4          5.9 iCH                                                    1.1 0.973                       1.042        1.C98         1.163 CPlu                               0.896                                                          0.906        0 918         0.930        0.944                       1.000 5.9 1.2          1.3            1.6          3.0           2.8             4.2          5.4 iC H                                                   1.1                                         1.2 17.276                      19.213       19.448        19.780         20.168        19.371 fM                         16.326                                                              16.853        16.996                     18. 52
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -3.9 3.2           0.8          1.6            4.5          6.4           1.2             1.7          2.0 "CH 55,757.831                                                              56.880.823 58,000.868 00,947.599 63,873.214           68.311.140    68,687.925    72.569.229 75.122.951        75.591.922 (MLA                                                                                                                                                                                    5.7          3.5          0.6
                                               -4.7                                                   2.0           2.1          4.9            4.8           6.9          0.6
  %CH N                     183.691                                                                 106.538       189 242      191.889      104.303.       196.560      198.712       2C0.706      202.677         204.878 1.3           1.2          1.1             1.0          1.0           1.1
   %CH                                                    1.7                                         1.5           1.4          1.4 1.673300      1.706900      1.720400      1.754700     1.773900        1.P01400 NEGLPLCO             1.514711                                                                1.545300      1.578836     1.630232                                                                                   1.6 2.0           2.2          3.3            2.6           2.0          1.1             1.6           1.1 kCH                                                    1.1 1971                                                                    1972          1973         1974         1975           1976         1977 3.458                                                         3.682        3.973         4.402        4.803          5.331        5. 7'26 AHTMPLA 5.4                                           6.5           7.9         10.8            9.1         11.0           8.7 YCH AHEM                                3.565                                                        3.807        4.075         4.412        4.806          5.186        5.031                                        (<   9 6.2                                           6.8           7.0          8.3            8.9           7.9          8.6

CH

  ~CPISOUTHNS                           1.214                                                       1.251         1.340        1.506         1.646         1.735        1.854 6.8 g
   '. C H                                                 3.9                                         3.0           7.1         12.4            9.3           5.4 CPIU                                 1.213                                                       1.253 3.3 1.331 6.2 1.478 11.0 1.612 9.1 1.705 5.8 1.816 6.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ]

SCH 4.3 18.623 19.152 20.153 20.080 18.322 18.997 19.647 . EM

   *? C H                                        -3.9                                                 2.8           5.2         -0.4          -8.8            3.7           3.4                                      gg ENLA              77.978.202 3.2 82,178.632 5.4 86.592.821 5.4 87,664 671
                                                                                                                                   .2 d4.783.143
                                                                                                                                               -3.3 91.482.971 7.9 96.749.100 5.0 "74" ,

o MH 208.846 210.410 2* 01 213.uS9 215.142 216.817 N 207.053

• 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 g SCH a 2.00.000 M N R 6. L P t. C O 1.834000 1.85G500 1.876300 1.d92720 1.92iUOO 1.96/900 2.0 2.0 km

    *4C H                                                  1.8                                         t.2           1.1         0.9 O

v

                                                                                   . - . _       _   __           - _ - _ _ _ .          __    _ - . . - . -              _ -          -                      _  u_.
                                       \                                                                        \

v L NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS - LP&L SERVICE AREA 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 BIA@LPLCO 34.909 34.622 33.588 33.211 34.011 33.404 32.978 30.701 30.121 30.294 31.231

       'CH
                                              -14.9       -0.8              -3.0             -1.1          2.4                    -1.8      -1.3                   -6.9          -1.9         0.6        3.1 j

BIRFUS 3.760.358 3.606.274 3.520.959 3,501.564 3.578.016 3,718.035 3.571.287 3.257.777 3.136.965 3.150.354 3.14?.811 1 \CH 1.6 -4.1 -2.4 -0.6 2.2 3.9 -3.9 -8.8 -3.7 0.4 0.0 4 194.302 196.560 198.7'2 200.706 202.677 204.878 207.053 208.846 210.410 211.901 213.559

"CH

       -                                        1.3         1.2              1.*              1.0           1.0                    1.1       1.1                     0.9           0.7        0.7        C8 i

j NRP LP LCO 1.673300 1.706900 1.726400 1.754700 1.773900 1.801400 1.834000 1.856500 1.fl76300 1.892720 1.928800 j TCH 2.6 2.0 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.9 TIME 74.500 78.500 82.500 8G.500 90.500 94.500 98.500 102.500 106.500 110.500 114.500

*CH

        .                                                   5.4              5.1              4.8          4.6                     4.4       4.2                     4.1           3.9        3.8         3.6 1976        1977 OIR$LPLCO                             32.097      35.304
       %CH                                      2.8        10.0
!      BIROUS                            3.162.271   3.177.367

CH 0.4 0.5 N 215.142 216.817

 ,       .C H                                   0.7          0.0 4

ly NRplPLCO 1.967900 2.007000 j ~CH 20 2.0 .! .a 5 :;c TIME 118 500 122.500 0 %CH 35 3.4 m

  !O

< c, , IN i CD l

                                                                                                             *                                                                                                  ~

(,a W

U w NUMBER OF IIVE BIRTHS BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE - TOTAL US 1968 1969 1970 1965 1966 1957 19G1 1962 1963 1964 1960 3.578.016 3.718.035 4.268.326 4.167.362 4.098.020 4.027.490 3.760.358 3.606.274 3.52G.959

                                                                                                       -2,4 3.501.564
                                                                                                                  -0.6       2.2        3.9 BIR@uS 4.257.850            0.2        -2.4        -1.7         -1.7        -6.6         -4.1
  %CH            0.3                                                                                                                204.878 196.560       198.712    200.706   202.677 186.538    189.242      191.889     194.303                                             1.0        1.1 N         180.671      183.691                                   1.4         1.3          1.2          1.1       1.0 1.7          1.5         1.4
  %CH            1.6
                                                                                        ~
                                                   'a        1975        1976          1977 1971          1972        1973 3.162.221   3.177.367, 3.257.777    3.136.965 3.150.354     3.149.811 81R*US 3.571.287          -0.8         -3.7         0.4          0.0         0.4          0.5
   %CH          -3.9 211.901     213.559      215.142    216.817 N        207.053      208.846      210.410 0.8         0.7          0.8 1.1          0.9         0.7         0.7
   %CH P

2 o w w Rm S S O - e

_ - - - - . _ . . - - - - _ - - - -.--.~. . .-- _ - - - , . ., - , . . - - . l 1 1 l 4 l 1 l ! CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATE - STATE OF LOUISIANA

) 1960 1962 '963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 19G1 CORPTX 0.040 0.040 0.040 40 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.080  ; 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 J.0 100.0

       %CH                                                               0.0

( RTCGSL 0.026 0.026 0.028 0.029 0.028 0.026 0.028 0.032 0.037 0.041 0.051 0.051 c.052 0.049 0.051 0.051 0.060 0.061 2.0 -1.3 -6.9 6.1 13.7 15.3 12.4 25.3 -0.3 1.5 -4.9 2.8 15.4 2.5 0.6 I %CH 1.7 7.1 1 i t 1 l l i l ' s i k' Z

   .O                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    l m                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ,

I w O N t CD O W w V W [

w LA SOUTH REGION . . : ALL ITEMS 1272 1973 1 'C1 19<5 1976 1965 1966 1967 1968 1 9 . 9 1970 1971 1960 1961 1962 1963 1904

1. 5M 1.616 1.735 1.047 1.109 1.169 1.214 1.251 1.3:0 CP150uix45 0.886 0.696 0.90G 0.918 0.930 0.944 0.973 1.003 5.4 3.9  ?.0 7.1 12.1 9.3 5.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 3.0 3.0 4.4 5.9

     ?JC H                    1.1                                                     1.2 1.331 1.4:3  1.612     1.705 1.000    1.042                  1.008      1.1CJ 1.213  '.253 CrIU        0.686      0.835                                                  0.90G  0.918 0.930 0.944     0.973                                                             3.3   6.2  11.0     9.1         -

3.0 2.8 4.2 5.4 5.9 4.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6

     *CH 1.774 1.232  1.394 1. Y ' 1. 7.' O 0.912 0.924 0.945 0.992       1.000   1.036                  1.087      1.147  .183 8.4       3.1 CPIUF88     0.881      0.890                                                  0.899 0.8    3.6                    4.9       5.5    3.1    4.2  13.2  13.d 1.1                                                    1.0   1.4   1.3    2.3       5.0 TCH 1977 CPISOuTHMS  1.854
        .C H        6.8 CPIU        1.816
       '.C H        6.5 CPluFSB     1.881
      *4 H          6.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                          =

EE59 Esgp ir ~

  $                                                                                                                                                                                                     Y C::= 2 e

m E=== t

 =

S

[ ( NUMBER OF DEATHS - LP&L SERVICE AREA i 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1965 1966 1967 13.786 13.737 14.500 14.821 14.459 14.548 OEAOLPLCO 12.8G6 13.292 13.145 13.997 14.010 0,6

     %CH                                                     -14.3               3.3         -1.1                6.5          0.1              -1.6              -0.4         5.G        2.2         -2.4 DEADUS                                             1.828,136     1.863.149         1.851.323      1.930.082      1.915.452     1.919.688         1.926.047        1.965.691  1.979.332    1.930.254        1.905.029
                                                                                                         ~
                                                                                                                             -0.8               0.2               0.3         2.1        0.7         -2.5            -1.3
     %CH                                                        1.7              1.9         -0.6                4.3                                                                                                            i 0V73                                                          0                0                0              0            0                0                  0          0           '0             0              0 l                                                                                                                   NC           NC               NC                 NC         HC          NC            NC              NC 4     %CH                                                         NC               NC                NC 196.560           198.712          200.706        202.677     204.878                207.053     208.84G     210.410     211.901          213.559 N                                                    194.303                                                                                                  1.1        0.9         0.7         0.7               4.8
     %CH                                                        1 3              1.2              1.1             1.0          1.0              1.1 1.706900          1.726400       1.754700         1.773900    1.801400             1.834000      1.856500    1.876300    1.892720         1.928800 NR9tPLCO                                            1.673300                                                                                                  1.8        1.2         1.1         0.9               1.9 ICH                                                        2.6              2.0              1.1             1.6          1.1              1.6 78.500            82.500             86.500       90.500        94.500                98.500    102.500     106.500      110.500         114.500

) TIME 74.500 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6 1 TCH 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.4 i i 1976 1977 DEA 9LPLCO 15.452 15.176 7-C H 6.2 -1.8 DEA *US 1.910.5 17 1.920.'100

      '.C H                                                     0.3                0.5 j     Ov76                                                           1                 0
     %CM                                                          NC           -100.0 l

N 215.142 216.817 lg *4 H 07 0.8 NRul# LCO 1.967900 2.007000 1[ i i* TCH 20 2.0 h) T I L'E 118.500 122.500 , 9 *CH

        .                                                        35                3.4 So S

1 U L/t 1

                                                          ~

t: NUMBER OF DEATHS BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE - TOTAL US 1960 19G1 1962 1963 19 r. 4 1965 1966 1957 1968 1969 1970 DEAPUS 1.711.962 1.701.522 1.756.720 1.813.549 1.798.051 1.820.136 1.863.149 1.851.323 1.930.002 1.915.452 1.919.668

   %CH          3.3       -0.6         3.2           3.2          -0.9          1.7        1.9      -0.6        4.3       -0.8       0.2 N        180.671    183.691    186.538        189.242      191. o9      194.303    19 .560    198.712    200.706    202.677   204.878
   %CH           I.6        1.7        1.5            1.4            f.4        1.3        1.2        1.1        1.0       1.0        1.1 1971       1972        1973          1974         1975         1976        1977 DEAPUS 1.926.047  1.965.694  1.979.332      1.930.254    1.905.029    1.910.947  1.920.100
   %CH          0.3        2.1         0.7          -2.5          -1.3          0.3        0.5 N        207.053    208.846    210.410        211.901      213.559      215.142    21G.817
   %CH           1.1       0.9         0.7           0.7             0.8       0.7        0.3 J

I o e e O ho v O - - - O O

V 4 f

                                       . DiPLOYMENT, CONSTRUCTION, FINANCE, INSURANCE AND REAL ESTATE - LP&L SERVICE AREA, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

• 1964 1965 1966 1967 1961J 1969 1970 1961 1962 1963 J

ECFIRLA 18.627.824 19.576.353 21.589.943 25.685.977 30.484.591 36.357.411 36.359.500 34.317.009 31.605.155 30.543 -3.4 573 10.3 19.0 18.7 19.3 0.0 -5.6 -7.9 i '4C H 5.1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Dv721 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC

                '.C H 3.047             3.184           3.276             3.208               3.304               3.522                3.537 EC                                2.815        2.898                 2.958                                                                                                                          0.4 2.1          3.0              4.5             2.9              -2 ?                   3.0                    6.6
                %CH                                                3.0 3.100             3.225'              3.381               3.563                3.687 E F 131                           2 731        2.800                 2 877      2.957             3 022 4.8                    5.4             3. 5 2.5                2.8           2.8             2.2             2.6               4.0
                %CH 18.062          19 213            19.448              19.780             20.168                19.371 E;4                             16.326       16.853                16.996     17.276
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -3.9 3.2                0.8            1.6            4.5             6.4               1.2                   1.7                    2.0 3
                 %CH i

56.880.823 58.080.868 60.947.599 63.873.214 68.314.140 68.687.925 72.569.229 75.593.922 55.757.831 5.7 75.122.951 I EMLA 3.5 0.6 ICH -4.7 2.0 2.1 4.9 4.8 6.9 0.6 191.889 194.303 196.560 198.712 200.706 202.677 204.878 N 183.691 186.538 189.242 1.1

                 !.C H                               1.7             1.5                1.4           1.4            1.3                .2              1.1                   1.0                    1.0 1.578836  1.630232           1.673300        1.706900          1.726400            1.754700           1.773900             1.801400 NRSLPLCO                     1.514711     1.545300                                                                                                                                                  1.6 3.3            2.6             2.0                1.1                   1.6                     t.1
                 ?.C H                               1.1             2.0                2.2 0 000           0.000             0.000              0.000                0.000                0.000 i                 R ECLNas720N                    0.000        0.000                 0 000       0.000                                                                                                                NC NC              NC               NC          NC                NC               NC                    NC                       NC
                 *CH 6

4 m I hO v o N

w3m O 89 0C 78 85 74 08 78 00 00 4 , 0N 3 0 . 4 . 0 1 0 . 0 . 57 0 8G 54 63 1 5 80 02 00 7 . . . 7 7 5 0 3 4 9 9 6 0 1 9 3 1 4 1 0 1 5 7 2 .

/ 2 5 6 6 9 88 0C 42 52 77 1 9 27 00 00 6 0N 9 . 1 . 9 7 4 . 0 . 0 .

96 0 52 32 93 97 1 0 92 00 G . . 7 7 5 0 3 4 8 2 5 6 1 9 1 1 8 1 9 1 7 4, 2 1 0 1 6 9

    -         60         0C      53       33       26      33      98       09    00 9          0N               2 .      2       4        5 . 0     0 O

1 E 54 0

5. 1 1 20 30 33 50 81 00 T 5 7 6

                 . 1 0       3-       4 8

3 3

                                                                       . 9 2

A 9 3 1 8 1 9 1 T 1 8 7 2 S 1 E 6 4 5 8 L A E 03 0C 32 99 04 1 2 17 09 00 R 4 . 0N 6 0 . 8 . 7 0 . 2 0 49 0 91 22 00 6' 90 70 00 D 4 7 9 0 3 4 0 4 1 2 9 1 N) 9 0 2 6 1 0 AD' 1 5 6, 2 1 ET 9 7 CN 4 8 NO AC R( 39 00 28 1 0 32 1 4 07 01 00 U 9 . 0 1 . 9 . 5 2 1 0 . 0 S D 2 0 04 03 1 5 85 40 31 00 NE 3 7. 1 0. 0 . 6 7 3 01 4 4 0 2 0 7 1 I T 9 9 - 2 9 1 8 S 1 2 5 2

     ,U                                                                      1 EJ         5                                            6 CD         4                                            8 NA A                     0C               37       28      24       69      02     0C NY         44 5N 04 3 .      4        5 . 3         4 . 0     0N I L        1 5

2 85 93 1 2 65 80 51 0 FL 2 8. 2 . . G A 7 2 0 3 3 9 8 8 5 1

     ,N    9  1                                    1       7        0       8 NO                                                      1        2 OS 1

1, , 1 I A 0 2 TE 4 8 CS U 1 7 0C 58 21 39 22 31 08 0C R , 7 0 '4 3 . 0 . 2 . 0 . 5 . 0 0N TA 34 0 62 83 63 23 01 01 0 SE 1 . .

                                                         -                   4 NR       7  4         0       3         3        8       8        7       3     O OA       9  9                                    1      7         0      0 C        1  9                                            9,       2
      ,EC      1                                            7 1

e TI 3 7 MV FR N ME 0 YS O 2 O A C 7 LL L L A P6 R 1 P 'N MP I 2 R 4 L L EL F H 7H H I H H H H 9H CH CC vC CC F C, MC t. C C RC EC E7 O'. Ek E E% L *, N% t J 'I R"

                                                                                       >B. Y.P o$Ov

f} (

               \%, )                                                                 s t

q EMPLO'iHENT, NONACR1CULTU1tAL WAGE & SALARY - LOUISIANA 1960 19G1 1962 1963 1964 1965 1969 1967 1 '68 EEALA 154.064.834 152.04G.318 157.128.552 164.055.597 176.816.638 193.378.825 211.665.443 218.750.602 226.235.406

      %CH                               -1.3             3.3                 4.4                  7.8            9.4                 9.5         3.4          3.4

[C FIRLA 19.004.000 18.627.824 19.576.353 21.589.943 25.685.977 30.484.591 3G.357.411 36.359.500 34.317.009

      %CH                               -2.0             5.1                10.3                19.0            18.7               19.3          0.0         -5.6 EMILA         16.064'.715  16.293.667     16.047.502          15.946.277        16.780.175       17.807.810    10.362.522          18.067.849  18.334.977 1.4           -1.5                 -0.6                  5.2            6.1                 3.1       -1.6           1.8
      %CH ERLA          12.186.998   12.627.923     13.026.697          13.323.534        14.067.790       16.134.572    17.528.744          19.407.928  20.011.270
      *CH                                3.6             3.2                 2.3                  5.6           14-7                 8.6        10.7          3.1 ESVLA          9.912.894   10.600.972     11.484.671          12.301.353        13.587.752       15.187.934    16.559.592          18.362.573  19.597.914
      %CH                                6.9             8.3                 7.1                10.5            11.8                 9.0        10.9          6.6 ETLA          38.373.243   38.130.779     40.115.469          42.809.840       45.751.180        49.901.714    54.563.004          57,849.997  61.374.948 2CH                               -C.6             52                  6.7                  6.9            9.1                 9.3         6.0          6.1

E20LA 11.598.003 11.084.390 11.140.129 11.186.787 11.166.831 11.445.820 11.329.322 11.320.785 11.492.700 7CH -4.4 0.5 0.4 -0.2 2.5 -1.0 -0.1 1.5 850.459 1.063.295 1.203.829 1.775.900 1.977.206 1.934.555 2.0,0.320 E2223LA 939.486 1.102.949 6.5

      %CH                               -9.5           29.7                 -3.6                13.2            47.5               11.3        -2.2 E242526LA     25.813.212   23.847.327     23.458.220          23.666.412       23.721.829        23.646.926    24.930.795          23.898.123  23.219.253
      %CH                               -7.6           -1.6                  0.9                  0.2           -0.3                 5.4       -4.1          -2.8 E27LA            790.403      748.083         755.783            797.401               853.181      905.744               970.615   1.094.417   1.130.972
      %CH                               -5.4             1.~ 0               5.5                  7.0            6.2                 7.2        12.8          3.3 E2830NSLA          5.380        5.394           5.221              5.437                 6.165           6.546              7.522       7.936        8.425
      ?.C H                              0.3           -3.2                  4.1                13.4             6.2               14.9          5.5          6.2 E29LA          2.316.997    2.263.651      1.945.736           1.001.139             1,844.858    1.847.194       1.945.559         2.148.512   2.373.061
      %CH                               -2.3          -14.0                 -7.4                  2.4            0.1                 5.3        10.4         10.5 E32LA          2.102.410    2.059.839      2.149.610           2.220.986             2.516.666    2.655.493       2.800.599         3.025.319   3.370.976
                                        -2.0             4.4                 3.3                13.3             5.5                 0.5         5.0          9.8 g  ?.C H E33LA          2.587 101    2.195.014      2.476.777           2.611.920             2.738.545    2.7?~.. 80     2.771.535          2.773.090   3.182.555 NCH                             -15.2            12.8                  5.5                  4.8           -0.3                 1.5         0.1         14.0 y  E34NSLA            1.054         1.986          2.002              2.066                 2.147           2.375              2.579       2.701         2.958
  =   %CH                                7.1             0.8                 3.2                  3.9           10.6                 U.6         4.7          9.5
    ) FJ53637LA      4.753.070    4.992.768      6.256.445           6.850.454             8.104.289    9.373.244    10.726.304          11.201.243  13.780.004 15.7                14.4         4.4         22.4

. El ! OD

      ?.C H                              5.0           25.3                  9.5                 18.3 23  E3639LA          382.645      33G.467         372.424            380.058               485.573       570.778              677.711     655.298     6/6.810
      ?.C H                           -12.1            10.7                  2.0                27.8            17.5                18.7       -3.3           3.3 s

w. C* o PfPI.0YPTST, NONACRICULTURAL k' ACE & SALARY - LOUISTANA (CONT'D) 1972 1973 1974 1N' 197G t *77 19G9 1970 1971 2J4,367.724 242,859.551 280.246.000 300.331.0'O 323.165.675 3 r. 415 at7 769.2r3.3'l 3 95. 617. C 4 LE4LA 233,434.M 5 6.6 7.4 0.4 3.6 15.4 9.3 5.5 7.2

   %CH                  3.2 38,605.i55   30,543.573     31,934.371   4   '12.814   45.293.793   49,509.440   56.8 m.*/ G      60,716.9C8     65.535.519 ECFIRLA                                                                                  9.3           i 1. 8          6.8                               7.9 RH                 -7.9         -3.4             4.7         25.4          12.9 19,394.515   20, cog.2:3      18.6t9.408     21,0~1.053 EMILA       19,494.006   18,6Gl.090     18.224.712   18.561.084    17,836.962 13.1
                                   -4.2           -2.4            1.8         -3.9          8.7            J.5           -7.2
   '. C H               6.0 21,078 437   21,803.150     21.815.411   23.456.523    26.552.136   28,763.399   29.903.207       31,33G.439     33.13.975 ERLA                                                                                                   4.0            4.8                               5.9 5.3          3.4            0.1           7.5         13.2          8.3 ACH 20,755.528   21,502.848     22,676.472   32,906.888    38.305.850   42,811.975   55,221.137       00,538.851     64.0J1.5?9 CSULA                                                                                                 29.0            9.6                               5.7 G.1          3.6            5.5         45.1          16.4         11.8 5CH C5,442.702   66,277.821     70,165.237   83,048.718    91.752.764   95,018.816   N . 6 21. W 6   10G,512.504    116.0 W.100

[TLA 3.6 .8 6.9 9.0 1CH 6.E 1.3 5.9 18.4 10.5 l 11,462.437 11.422.592 11,466.800 11,946.151 11.886.912 11,979.422 11,401.793 11.339.92/ 11.2'6.913 l L20LA 0.8 -4.8 -0.5 -0.5 XCH -0.3 -0.3 0.4 4.2 -0.5 5.783.101 5,364.1:68 6.498.047 7,517.307 E2223LA 2,196.971 2,682.362 3.150.490 4,035.402 5.095.154

                                                                                                          -7.2           21.1                              16.1 6.6        22.1            17.5         28.1          26.3         13.5 NCH 23,647.595   21,055.4'18      22.074.169     22,610.742 E243526LA   23,456.9G1   23,005.318     22.984.911   23.740.023    24.505.137
                                                                                                        -tf.0             4.8                               2.7 0.9        -1.9           -0.1            3.3          3.2        -3.5 "CH 1,175.509    1,240.233      1,323.117     1.519.647    1,632.251    1,660.204     1,820.825       1,954.277       2.012.C57 E27LA                                                                                   1.7            9.7            7.3                               3.0 CH              3.9          5.5            6.7         14.9           7.4 9,389        9,415          9.843        10.133       10.680       11.508         12.027          13,956                           15.374 I2830NSLA                                                                               7.8            4.5           16.0                              10.2 0.3            4.5           2.9          5.4
    *CH 11.4
                                                                                                                                                                *Y E29LA        2,437.950    2,522.596      2,673.631     2,959.794    3.001.254    3,218.414    2.658.233        2,637.252       2.9/7.001                      ,   ,

10.7 1.4 7.2 -17.4 -0.8 11.0 2.7 3.5 6.0

    %CH 3,250.725       3.214.907 h     )

3,199.762 3,463.548 3,2'J2. 2 3 4 F32LA iCH 3,351.168 0.9 3,263.741

                                   -2.6 3.105.200
                                                  -4.9 3,015.671
                                                                -2.9           6.1          8.2           -4.9           -t.3                              -t.1 M 4,C00.611    3. C'30. 0 99    3,871.026       4,169.006 L33LA        3,158.150    2,981.864      2.856.788     3,273.519    4.004.0G9 4.9                               U.2
    ',C H              -0.8        -5.5           -4.3          14.6          22.3        -0.1            -7.8 3,113        3,110          3,528         3,700        4,073        4.489          5.100           6.638                             7.047         '

L34N5LA 13.5 30.2 6.2 5.1 -0.1 13.5 4.9 10.1 10.2 CH b n L353337LA 14,834.9H3 15,623.024 16.587.903 17,306.357 17,886.508 17,134.55G 17,474 WO 18.134.004 19.3/C.317 ' .= { -CH H.2 5.3 6.2 4.3 3.4 -4.2 a. 1 3.7 6.9 pg 322.942 450.021 54R.5G9 629.609 780.136 871.112 1.1?9.298 1.102.101 l ! C3039th 546.572 41.0 19.8 14.8 23.9 12.7 28.5 -2.4 l CH -19.2 -40.5 g l 3 a W O O O

O p A k EMPLOYMENT, MINING - LP&L SERVICE AREA, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 19G9 1970 1971 EMILA 16.047.502 15.946.277 16.780.175 17.807.810 18.362.522 18.067.849 18.394.vi7 19.104.066 18.667.090 18.224.712 5.2

                                                                                                                                         ~
                     '4C H                              -0.G                                   6.1           3.1              -1.6             1.8             6.0         -4.2        -2.4 DV732             0.000           0.000             0.000           3.000            0.000              0.000          0.000         0.000          0.000        0.000 4CH                                   NC                NC                 NC             NC               NC             NC              NC            NC          NC DV761            0.000           0.000             0.000           0.000            0.000              0.000          0.000         0.000          0.000        0.000
                     ?.C H                                  NC                NC                 WC             NC               NC             NC              NC            HC          NC

. DV763 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 t- 000 0.000 0.000 0.0 00

                      %CH                                   HC                NC                 NC             NC               NC             NC              HC            NC          NC JQlNDMI          0.830           0.864             0.899           0.932            0.982              0.999          1.043         1.083          1.122        1.098
                     '.C H                                 4.1              4.1                3.5           5.4                1.7            4.4             3.9           3.6       -2.2 Osa474            0.000           0.000             0.000           0.000            0.000              0.000          0.000         0.000          0.000        0.000
                     '4C H                                  NC                NC                 NC             NC               NC             NC              NC            NC          NC f ir*E          62.500          66.500            70.500          74.500           78.500           82.500           86.500        90.500         94.500       98.500
                     %CH                                   6.4              6.0               5.7            5.4               5.1             4.8             4.6           4.4         4.2 1972            1973              1974            1975             1976             1977 EMILA      18.561.084       17.8'".962       19.394.515 20.068.273             18.619.400       21.051.953 SCH                    1.8         -3.9                8.7               3.5          -7.2               13.1 DV732             0.000           0.250             0.000           0.000            0.000             C.000
                     %CH                       NC           NC          -100.0                   NC             NC               NC Ov761             0.000           0.000             0.000           0.000            0.250             0.000
                      %CH                      NC           NC               NC                  NC             NC        -100.0 Dv763             0.000           0.000             0.000           0.000            0.250             0.000
     >               iCH                       NC           NC               NC                  NC             NC        -100.0 9                                                                                                                                                                                         ,

JQlNDMI 1.132 1.147 1.153 1.129 1.142 1.180

*>l .CH 3.1 1.4 0.5 -2.1 1.2 3.3

<                    OSH474            0.000           0.000             1.000           1.000            1.000              1.000

@ %CH NC NC NC 0.0 0.0 0.0 O T I t.* E 102.500 106.500 110.500 114.500 118.500 122.500

O %CH 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4

!O
!V
                                                                                                                                                                                                 - s

e M D'PLOYMENT, TOTAL MANUFACTURISC - LP&L SERVICE AREA, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1964 1965 19CG .n? 15t0 1969 19 A 1961 1962 1963 60.947.399 63.873.214 68.311.140 f. 4 . . 67.*25 72.569.?29 75.122.951 [YLA 58.518.207 55.757.631 56.880.023 58.060.0G8 6.9 0.6 5.7 3.5 ACH -4.7 2.0 2.1 4.9 4.8 11.166.031 11.445.1420 11.329.'322 11.320.785 11.492.700 11.462.437 f20LA 11.598.?03 11,084.390 11.140.129 11.186.787

                                                                                                                        -0.1             1.5         -0.3
                                 -4.4          0.5          0.4         -0.2           2.5          -1.0 XCH 1.063.295    1.203.029    1.775.900      1.977.?HG         1.934.555         2.060.720    2.196.971 E2223L4        939.486     850.459    1.102.949                                                                       -2.2             6.5          6.6
                                 -9.5         23.7         -3.6         13.2          47.5          11.3

.C H 23,666.412 23.721.029 23.646.926 24.930.795 2/.898.123 23.239.253 23.456.9G1 E242526LA 25.813.212 23.847.327 23.458.220 5.4 -4.1 -2.8 0.9 YCH -7.6 -1.6 0.9 0.2 -0.3 748.083 755.783 797.401 853.181 905.744 970.615 t.094.417 1.130.972 1.175.509 E27LA 790.403 7.2 12.8 3.3 3.9

  ?.CH                           -5.4           1.0         5.5           7.0           6.2 6.1G5                       7.522               7.936           8.425        9.389 E2830NSLA         5.380       5.394        5.221        5.437                     6.546 6.2         11.4 0.3         -3.2          4.1         13.4            6.2         14.9                 5.5
  %CH 1.801.139    1.044.058    1.847.194      1.945.559         2.14R.512         2.373.061    2.437.950 E29LA       2.316.997   2.263.651    1.945.736                                                                       10.4            10.5          2.7
                                 -2.3        -14.0         -7.4           2.4           0.1           5.3 5CH f 32 2      2,102.410   2.059.039    2.143.610    2.220.986    2.516.G66    2,655.493      2.880.599         ;t 025.319        3.320.976    3.351.168 13.3            5.5           fi . 5             5.0             9.8          0.9
  *CH.                           -2.0           4.4          3.3 2.611.920    2,738.545    2.730.780      2.771.535         2.773.090         3.182.555    3.15R.150 E33LA       2.587.181   2.195.014    2.476.777                                                      1.5               0.1            14.8         -0.8 iCH                         -15.2         12.8          5.5           4.8         -0.3 2.002        2.066        2.147         2.375         2.579               2.701           2.958        3.113

[34NSLA 1.854 1.986 10.6 8.6 4.7 9.5 5.3

   '(C H                           7.1          0.8          3.2          3.9 6.850.454    8,104.289    9.373.244     10.726.384       11.201.243         13.710.084   14.834.983 f353637LA  4.753.070   4.992.768    6.256.445                                                    14.4                4.4            22.4          8.2
     .C H                         5.0         25.3           9.5         18.3          15.7 33G.467      372.424      380.058      485.573      570.778        677.711           055.?98           676.H10      546.572 03839LA       382.645 18.7               -3.3              3.3       -19.2
    %CH                         -12.1          10.7          2.0        27.8           17.5 6-3 6-4 9                                                                                                                          Mel e

m We) O h O O P G

                                                                                                                             'N                                                              (

q i EMPLOYMENT, TOTAL MMUFACTURING - LP&L SERVICE AREA, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (CONT'D) i 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 EMLA 75.593.922 77.978.202 8 2.178 G.*>2 OG.592.821 87.664.678 84.783.343 91.482.971 9G.749.100 SCH 0.6 3.2 5.4 5.4 1.2 -3.3 7.9 5.8 f20LA 11.422.592 11.466.808 11.946.151 11.886.912 11.979.422 11.401.793 41.339.927 11.286.913 SCH -0.3 0.4 4.2 -0.5 0.8 -4.8 -0.5 -0.5

E2223LA 2.682.362 3.150.490 4.035.402 5.095.154 5.783.101 5.364.868 6.498.047 7.547.307 2Cd 22.1 17.5 28.1 26.3 13.5 -7.2 21.1 1G.1 i

!           E24252GLA 23.005.310                                   22.984.911       23.740.023 24.505.137 23.647.595 21.055.478 22.074.169                         22.G70.742 2.7 i            %CH                                              -1.9             -0.1             3.3              3.2           -3.5        -11.0             4.8 E27LA                                      1.240.233    1.323.117         1. 519.'6 < 7     1.632.251     1.660.204      1.020.825      1.954.277       2.012.657
            %CH                                               5.5               G.7           14.9              7.4            1.7           9.7            7.3             3.0 E2830t45LA                                      9.415            9.843         10.133           10.680          11.508       12.027        13.956           15.374
            %CH                                               0.3               4.5            2.9              5.4            7.8           4.5          16.0             10.2 l'           E29LA                                      2.522.596    2.673.631         2.959.794         3.001.254     3.218.414      2.658.233      2.637.252       2.927.901
            %CH                                               3.5               6.0           10.7              1.4            7.2        -17.4           -0.8             11.0 0 32 LA                                    3.263.741    3,105.200         3.015.671         3.199.762     3.463.548      3.292.234      3.250.725        3.214.907 3CH                                              -2.6             -4.9           -2.9               6.1            8.2         -4.9           -1.3             -1      i E33LA                                      2,984.064    2.856.788         3.273.519         4.004.069     4.000.G11      3.690.099      3.871.026        4.189.006
            %CH                                              -5.5             -4.3            14.6            22.3            -0.1         -7.8             4.9             8.2 E34NSLA                                         3.110            3.528          3.700            4.073           4.489        5.100          6.638            7.047
            'CH                                              -0.1              13.5            4.9            10.1            10.2          13.6          30.2               G.2 E353637LA                                15.623.024   16.587.903       17.306.357         17.886.508    17.134.556     17.494.450     16.134.084       19.376.317
            %CH                                                5.3              6.2             4.3             3.4           -4.2           2.1            3.7              G.9
       > - E3839th                                        324.942          458,021       548.569           629.609       780.136        879.112     1.129.298        1.102.101 19.8             14.0           23.9          12.7           2a.5           *-2,4
            %CH                                             -40.5              41.0 f

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s. v DIPLOYMENT, TOTAL NCN-MA'mFACTl' KING - LP&L SUNICE AFEA, Sr'3ONALLY AD.It'STFD 1960 19G1 1962 1963 1961  ; 9. 5 '~C6 12C7 1968 ( tit

• L A 95,546.626 9t'.2d8.481 100.247.7/3 10S.974.729 115,G03 0 39 1 2 7 , '. : .51' 1:3.3.2.;.a 90." 2. 57 15 ' . c 9 6. t r 7

    %CH                                0.0             4.1             5.7             4.3                 11.8                 10.7                     4.7                 2.4 LtFIELA     19,004.080    18.627.824      19.576.333      21,589.943      25,665.977      30.481.591            36,3 0.411               26. 09.5C0         33.317.0.9
    >CH                              -2.0              5.1           10.3            19.0                  18.7                 19.3                     0.0               -5.6 t '.t ! L A 16.064.715    16,293.667      16.047.502      15,946.277      16,780 175       17.N7.610            13.3 2.5?2               19. 0 6 7. C 43    .394.9         7
    %CH                                1.1           -1.5            -0.6              5.2                  6.1                   3.1                  -t.6                  ' 8 ERLA        12,186.998    12.G27.923      13.026.647      13.323.534      14,0G7.790       16,134.572           i7.5?u.744               19.407.928         20.011.270 3CH                                3.6             3.2             2.3             5.6                 14.7                   8.6                  10.7                  3.1 ESVLA        9,912.894    10,600.972      11.484.671      12.301.353      13,587.752       15.187.834           16 *19.592               18.362.573         19.567.914
    'CH                                6.3             8.3             7.1           10.5                  11.8                   9.0                  10.9                  6.6 F7LA        38,373.243    38,130.779      40,115.469      42,809.840      45.751.180      49,901.714            54,5,3.08                57.H49.997         61.374.9'n
   %CH                               -0.6              5.2             6.7             6.9                  9.1                   9.3                    6.0                 6.1 1969           1970            1971            1972            1473                  1974               1975                     1976               1977 t M.1L A    158.372.024    159,773.H02     164,881.348     198,068.168     219,738.189      235.501.C04          261.631.974              277.720.4'2        279.928.724 10H                  3.1            0.3             3.8            20.1            10.9                   7.2                  11.1                   6.1                   8.0 LCf!RLA       31.605.155     30,543.573      31,994 371      40.112.814      45.213.793        49.509.440          56.836.5 .               F'.715.968          G5.535          ;8
    'i C H              -7.9            -3.4             4.7            25.4            *2.9                   9.3                  14.0                   6.8                   1.9 F 't! L A     19,491.066     18,667.090      18.224.712      18,561.084      17,836.962        19.394.515          2 0 . r. r, e . p '/ 3    1's.619.408        21.051.7 3
   ' ,C H                 G.0           -4.2            -2.4             1.8            -3.9                   8.7                    3.5                 -7.2                 13.1 ERLA          21.0/8.437     21 P33.150 3.4 21,815.411      23.456.523 7.5 26,552.136 13.2 20.763.399 8.3 29,903.2 7               31.336.439          33.193.2J5          k )
   '. C H                 5.3                            0.1                                                                          1.0                  4.8                   5.9 L5vtA         20.755.528     21,502.848      22,676.472      32,90G.888      38,305.850        42,811.975          55.221.147               60.538.851          G4,001.539
   %CH                   6.1             3.6             5.5            45.1            16.4                 11.8                  29.0                    9.6                   5.7   p g ETLA 1CH 65,442.702 S.6 66,277.821 1.3 70,105.237 5.9 83,048.718 18.4 91,752.764 10.5 95.018.816 3.6 93,G24.9 6 4.8 1CU.512.504 6.9 116,099.100 9.0 g

J

Eso u

n N O N 00 O v 6 9 9

i. EMPLOYMENT, TRANSPORTATTON, CO?Of. & PUBLIC UTILITIES - LP&L SERVICE AREA, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1961 19G2 1963 1964 1963 196G 1967 1969 . 1969 1970 LRLA 12.627.923 13.026.697 13.323.534 14.067.790 16.134.572 17.528.744 19.407.928 20.011.270 21.078.437 21.003.150 LCH 3.2 2.3 5.6 14.7 8.6 10.7 3.1 5.3 3.4 DV052 0 000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.250 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ,

                                      ' rC H                                                             NC              NC                      NC     -100.0                  NC                NC              NC                 NC DV671                   0.000                  0.000           0.000        0.000                  0.000           0.000              9.250            0.000             0.000            0.0d0
                                       \CH                                               NC              NC              NC                      NC            NC               f4C         -100.0                NC                 NC 0V731                   0.000                  0.C00           0.000        0.000                 0.000            0.000              0.000            0.000             0.000            0.000
 ,                                    '.C H                                              NC              NC              NC                      NC            NC               NC                NC              NC                 HC DV771                   0.000                  0.000           0.000        0.000                  0.000           0.000              0.000            0.000             0.000           0.000
                                      '% C H                                                             NC              NC                      NC            NC               NC                NC              NC                 NC ER                      3.903                  3.907           3.902        3.951                 4.035            4.151              4.2'G2           4.311             4.435           4.503
                                       ..C H                                            0.1           -0.1              1.2                     2.1         2.9                2.7              1.2              2.9                1.5

] N 183.691 186.538 189 242 191.889 194.303 196.530 198.712 200.706 202.677 204.878 TCH 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 I. j NR3LPLCO 1.514711 1.545300 1.578836 1.630232 1.673300 1.70G900 1.72G400 1.754700 1.773900 1.801400

                                      'CH                        1.1                    2.0             2.2            3.3                      2.6         2.0                1.1              1.6              1.1                1.6
!                                     RE".LNM723M             0.000                  0.000           0.000        0.000                 0.000            0.000              0.000            0.000             0.000            0.000 I

4CH NC MC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC 1 - k j Z

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Am. No. 2, (10/80)

A .

                                                                                                                      \

s .

Q EMPLO'01ENT, SERVICES - LP&L SERVICE AREA, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1964 1965 1966 1967 1967 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 ESVLA 13.597.752 15.187.034 16.559.592 18.362.573 19.567.914 20.755.528 21.502.849 22.676.472 32.906.888 39.305.850

                   %CH                                        11.8           9.0               10.9           G.6                6.1                    3.6           5.5            45.1        16.4 DV721              0.000              0.000            0.000             0.000          0.000               0.000                 0.000      0.000               0.250       0.000
                     .C H                                        NC            NC                 NC              NC              NC                     NC              NC              NC    -100.0

! DV751 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.'000 OCH NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC ESV 8.709 9.087 9.551 10.098 10.621 11.227 11.621 11.903 12.390 13.020 "CH 4.3 5.1 5.7 5.2 5.7 3.5 2.4 4.1 5:1 N 191.889 194.303 196.560 199.712 200.706 202.677 204.878 207.053 208.846 210.410

                     .CH                 1.4                    1.3           1.2                1.1          1.0                1.0                    1.1            1.1            0.9          0.7 4                   f4RO LP LCO     1.630232    1.673300               1.706900      1.726400           1.754700           1.773900                1.801400  1.034000          1.85G500      1.H76300 TCH                   3.3                    2.6           2.0                1.1          1.6                1.1                    1.G           1.8              1.2         1.1 R EC LNM720N       0.000              0.000            0.000             0.000          0.000               0.000                 0.000      0.000               1.000       1.000
                   '.C H                                         NC            NC                 NC              NC              NC                     NC              NC              NC        0.0 1974          1975                 1976          1977 ESVla        42.811.975 55.221.137 60.538.851                 64.001.539 1                    iCH                11.8                   29.0            9.6                5.7 l                   Dv721              0.000              0.000            0.000             0.000
                    '.C H                 NC                     NC            NC                 NC l

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                                                               :       ?d ;                 -   *

'Z [SV 13.617 14.007 14.642 15.331 7 ',C H 4.6 2.9 4.5 4.7 , [ N

                     'CH 211.901 0.7 213.559 0.8 215.142 0.7 216.817 0.8
  >a
'o                  %E9tPLCO       1.892720    1.920000               1.967900      2.007000 D

O TCH 0.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 EECLNat720N 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

                     %CH                 0.0                    0.0           0.0                0.0                                                                                                   ,,

n N

w co EP10V'ENT, VHOLESALE & FETAIL TRADE - Lo(L cF'WICE AREA, SEASONAT.LY mR'STD

                                                                                                                            'C'           1970       ' 71 1952              1'33             1961        1955          196>          S7            196!

43,115 463 12.309. :0 45,751.160 19.931.714 54.563 r04 57.M ).997 61.374.,.d . C 7 '? 2 60.277.621 0.f'5.237 LTLA 5.9 6.7 6.9 9.1 9.3 6.0 6.1 6.6 1.3

    %CH 11.777          12.156      12.713        13 244        13.006          14.078      1M ??O       tt.042     15.351 ET                 1 1 . '.> 6 5 1.8             3.2         4.6           4.2           2.7             3.G          4.3         2.3          2.1
    ;CH
                                          -0.371          -0.364      -0.368        -0.331        -0.2RO          -0.287      -0.310       -0.307     -0.330 L R E LY P         -0.390                                                                                                                              -7.5 4.8             1.7        -0.9           9.9          15.5           -2.4         -H.3          1.1
    $CH 186.538           189.242          191.889     194.303       196.560       19e.712         200.706    202.r,77      2C4.870    207.053 N

t.0 1.1 1.1

     .CH                       1.5            1.4             1.4         1.3           1.2           1.1             1.0 1.54%300           1.57'J836       1.630232     1.673300      1.701900      1.726400        1.751700   1. 7 7 WOO    1.001400   1.634000 N A M P LC O                                                                                                                                            1.8 2.0             2.2             3.3         2.6           2.0           1.1             1.6          1.1         '.6
    'CH 0.000       0.000          0.000         0.000          0.000        0.000       0.000      0.000 7tCLw720N            0 000             0.000 NC           40          NC           NC

CH NC NC NC NC NC 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 ETLA 83.048,718 91,752.764 95,018.816 99,624.906 It 512.504 116.099.108

      ,L H                  18.4             10.5             3.6         4.8             6.9            9.0 LT                15.973             16.671          17.016      16.999          17.690         18.288 a.C H                     4.1            4.4             2.1        -0.1             4.1            3.4 LRfLYP            -0.327             -0.320          -C.293      -0.275          -0.256         -0.251 0.8            2.2             8.3         6.2             7.1            2.0
      .( H
     '4               200.846            210.410         211.901     213.559        215.142        ~216.817 CH                     0.9            0.7             0.7         0.8             0.7            0.8 NRPLPLCO        1.856500          1.876300 1.1 1.892720 0.9 1.928800 1.9 1.957900 2.0 2.007000 2.0 Q
     '.C H                     1.2 RECLN9720N         1.000             1.000            1.000       1.000          1.000           1.000
     %CH                         NC           O.0             0.0         0.0             0.0            0.0
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