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.. 1 Eerkeleyj Califomia April 29,i1964
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. Dr. Glenn T. Seaborg Chairman, Atomic Energy Commission Washington, 25, D.; C.
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Dear Dr. Seaborg,
On liarch 18, 1964, I made a trip to the Bodega' reactoh* site with Professors Carniss H. Curtis and' Jack F. Evernden of the University of California, and Messrs. J. Schlocker, Manuel G. Bonilla,' and Dwight L I4rc.on of the U. S. Goological Survey... Attached to this letter is a i
statement on our observations at the site on that day, and on other i
satters pertaining to % safety of the reactor site.
As you probably know, shortly after.the publication of TEI 844 i
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(the U. S. Geological Survey's appraisal'of the geologic hazards of the Bodega reactor. site), Profeiss' ors Curtis and Evernden wrote a letter to i
the P. G. and E. stating their views regarding the hazard of the site Decause statements in the letter were at variance with the ' geology as r
reported by Schlocker and Bonilla, Mr. Schlocker requested.ht n ' field I
trip be ande to the nactor site by all parties concerned, to resolve the differences in interpretation of the geology.
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I was asked to be on this trip because I am both a member.of.h t.
l' Coology Faculty at the University of California and' hold a L A
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appointment with the U. S. Geo3cgical Survey, the organization for wh;Leh -
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I I worked for 15 years before coming to Berkeley.
t I'nade this tiip
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f not as an employee of the Geological Survey but.as a member of the b
sology Faculty of the University of California, and it.is as an associate professor at the University of California that I am writing you this letter.
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A sumary of our observations, as I interpret them, is as follows:-
The shaft fault probably has a displacement with a total not strike F
separation of approximately 24 feet; it has moved more than once, and has i
k moved once in the last 200,000 years with a dip separation of about 1 foot.
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and a r,trike-slip cor:ponent of disphconent of botwoon 4 inchos and 2 foot.
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In addition, r.y reading on W history of earthquakes in California, in preparation for this trip, shows that displacements on minor faults aro a comon accompaniment of displacement on a major fault during an earthquake; l
and that we may expect m ' major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region l
about once every century or half-century.
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Jn this wholly inadequate statistical sanple, which is all we have to go on, I would guess that the probability of a signif! cant offset on the shaft fault within the next 200 years lies between 1 in 50 and 1 in 50,000, with the 'most reasonable probability being 1 in 1,000 I think ht all of '
t' the group who visited the reactor agree on 'this order of likelihood of I
recurrence.
This probability is large enough,'I feel, to justify an assurance I
from the design engineers of the plant that it can undergo a disruption with an offset on the order.of five feet without any dangor of releasing radioactive mteria1a into the air.
(I am not thinking now of nuclear explosions, which f
I understand are extrere3y unlikely in this situation, but of secondary hazards,
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sudt as the escape 'of steam through h damged reactor, which might carry I
f radioactive anterials' into the atmosphere). If this assurance cannot be ande, then I feel the plant should not be built.
p Geologists in.the Bay Region are unaninous in their apprehension for
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the future, for past experience tells us that we may expoet a major shock on I
the San Andreas Fault' or one of its nei bbors '(e_. g., h. Hayward Fault)
E about onco every 50 or 100 years in the Day Region, and the 'last one was near 60 years ago.
When the'next earthquake cores, the loss o'f life and disruption s
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to comunity services fro:n the effect pf the earthquake alone vill probably
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be much greater than they were in 1906, because of the dense population and l
unwise building on alluvium, filled land, bay mud, and along the fault. zones themselves.
Ifhon the comunity is struggling to recover from damaged water and sever lines, disrupted communications, and other effects of a mjor g
I earthquake, it vill hardly be in a position to cope also with radioactive mterials.
Sincerely your I
pydeWahrhafti r
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Associate Professor of Geology -
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