ML20212L253
Text
. _.
i G,
(
In w i M i:h 'v MEMORANDUM FOR:
Dennis Allison, LPH, Light Water Reactors Branch #1, DPM FROM:
Renner Hofnann, Leader, Geology Section, GSB, DSE
SUBJECT:
REGARDING TELEPHONE CALL OF NOVEMBER 16, 1976 TO DR. JAMES BRUNE OF THE SCRIPPS INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY My phone call to Dr. Brune concerned his recent letter regarding the i
possible affects of beaming of seismic energy towards Diablo Canyon from a rupture along the Hosgri fault based upon theoretical work not referenced in his letter.
Dr. Brune said that the reference by Benioff, in which he proposed that such a mechanism may have been responsible for certain areas of increased i
damage in the vicinity of the Kern County 1965 Earthquake, appears in l
the California Division of Mines Bulletin 171. He stated further l
that there were several theoretical articles which touched upon the subject. One of them is by Ralph Archuleta in the bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1975 Volume 65 No. 5 for October.
I Another article he mentioned is by Paul Richards entitled "Self Similar Rupture Propagations, Dynamic Motions near an Earthquake EM Fault: A Three Dimensional Solution." This either has appeared or will appear in the Seismological Society of AmericanBulletin. He did not have a reference at this time. Another reference was paper 296 of the Fif th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering entitled " Dynamic Properties Earthquake Source." Still another reference by author Paul Richards, appears in the 1973 International Journal of Solids and Structures, Voltana 9 pages 843-861 " Dynamic Field of Growing Plan Elliptical Shear Crack." Also, there is the paper by Brune in a book edited by Rosenbluth acd Lonnitz, with a title something like l
" Earthquake Risk."
It is a new book.
l Dr. Brune has stated that this subject would be discussed in a paper at the west coast American Geophysical Union Meeting in the week of December 6, 1976 given b7 Jerry Frazier and Ralph Archuleta based on numerical modeling. He said they did not have a pre-print this time l
but should they prepare one hefore the meeting, he would send it.
He also referred me to his past papers written concerning modeling of i
6
.fd-8608230263 860801
/l(
PDR FOIA HOUCH86-391 PDP envu p_
ucE.<m m ucwou.
. 4.,....
gg g.,
A -fas-A t,r
}
s,.
t 2 -
Dennis Allison,
fault movements in foam rubber. Offhand, I do not know what they I do recall having seen them probably in the American Geophysical are.
Union Journals or Seismological Society Bulletin.
The proposed beaming of high energy is extremely theoretical. The question of the appropriateness of foam rubber as in anology to the real earth is questionable in developing any kind of quantative results. The theoretical modeling requires many assumptions, and the type of mathematical modeling will influence the results. The principal rebutal to this kind of an attack is the intensity contours
,i around the 1906 San Francisco earthquake of magnitude 8.3 where high intensities, that is over Modified Mercalli VIII occurred t.ithin only l
about 1 1/2 miles of the fault. Inasmu'ch cs Diablo Canyon is about 31/2 miles from the Hosgri fault, if such besming does occur one can argue, that it has disspated by the time it reaches that distance.
Apparently, the principal of arguments that are going to be used by Dr. Bruna are those to be put forth by Jerry Frazier and Ralph Archuleta at the AGU meeting. This involves numerical modeling with some form of dynamic finite element analysis. I hope to attend that meeting and to talk with Dr. Frasier and Archuleta on the subject.
j Perhaps I can provide more detailed information after that. In the mean time, I am trying to locata the various references that Dr. Brune provided.
Distribuiion:
M Central File l
NRR Rdg Renner B. Hofmann, Leader
~
l GSB Rdg Geology Section DSE Rdg Geology and Seismology Branch Division of Site Safety and f,
Environmental Analysis J'.< Stepp cc:
,R. Hofmann au 5:
i
,/
/
i.
Y$
~/
{
orne s >
DRR?R evenaus k.
DHnfmannesb V
- elvsp '
11/?A/7A Penn ABC 318 'faer. 9 93) ABCM 9240
, ku. e. eovsanuswr rasanne orrices sere.mae.see.
s s
i
, ;% g
}.
~
s Distributio Docket Ftle LWR-1 File 4
D. Allison E. Hylton Docket Nos.: 50-275, 50-323 DEC 10 g6 HEMDRANDUM FOR: John F. Stolz, Chief, l.ight Water Reactors Branch Ho.1 FROM:
D. Allison, Project Manager, Light Water Reactors Branch No.1 SUSJECT:
DIARLO CANYDN SEISMIC DESIGN BASIS The intervenors' attorney has written to the ACRS and the staff questioning whether the magnitude 7.5 earthquake on the Hosgri fault is a sufficient design basis for Diablo Canyon in light of the possible connections of this fault with other faults to the Morth. The ACRS has requested that we pro-vide response from U.S.G.S.
Copies of this correspondence are enclosed.
Jim Devine at U.S.G.S. has been working on an answer for at'out 3 weeks now d
and will provide a response soon. This subject was discussed in the U.S.G.S.
report concerning Diablo Canyon.
In its report the U.S.G.S. assumed that these postulated connections are real and dismissed anv consequent need to use an earthquake larger than magnitude 7.5 due to the nature of the result-ing fault system. The U.S.G.S. is checking to detennine exactly what was dene at the recent seminar in Los Angeles before responding.
Original Signed By Dennis P. A!!ison Dennis P. Allison, Project F'.anager Light Water Reactors Branch No.1 Division of Project Management
Enclosure:
as stated cc:
B. Rusche E. Case R. Boyd R. DeYoung D. Vassallo ig MfhhDF d
I. Sihweil K. Kapur H. Denton
~
W. Gacinill J. C. Stepp R. Hofman J. Tourtell_o_tB; ____
.. D. Davis y
erric=
- p//r/n..,
eurnr.nea >
rowas.sw
[ Q oaes>
Poem AEC.338 (Rev. 9-53) AECM 0240 W u. o. novsanassar Paintine orrects sete.sas.ese
i t
..d. -
.a.
e
~y
)
h.
8 p age,
,8,,
UNITED STATES
+
y g
g NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION E
Ol ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON REACTOR SAFEGUARDS g
WASHINGTON. D. C. 20555 November 29, 1976 D. Allison POTENTIAL LENGIH OF THE HOSGRI FAULT NEAR THE DIABLO CANYON SITE Attached is a copy of a letter to the ACRS from the Center for Law in the Public Interest which points out that some respected geologists have again, recently, expressed the view that the Hosgri fault could link with other faults forming a system about 300 miles'long.
The Diablo Canyon Subcomittee Chairman has requested that we obtain coments from you and U. S. Geological Survey on the significance of-
"* W this information and its impact on the postulated magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurring on the Hosgri fault.
J. C. Mc niey, le Project Review anch No. 1
Attachment:
Center for Law Ltr dtd 11/19/76 cc:
B. Rusche E. Casa R. Bcyd R. DeYoung R. Heineman H. Denton d'
Q, W. Camill fs C. Stepp O
D. Okr'ent 0
fCYt9"dfp ".$9 A p.fg
~
w....
2.
. ~ -......
i t_.. J 1 r./
e-.
),
j,, ** s, -~).3
{
CENTER FOR LAW
}
soaao oe m*.tus *
- IN THE PUDLIC INTEREST
' D *.'_^"
eoeos saata more.c4 vows c vaa n fiC[:!.3 me....w
,,,.'..'41.,.,,
g-
- l;,,;;
rer'a r 6===
a I'"T.:.T.*.7.:
- sos o c6c.. cat.,o..a. o o. r
.g, ~,,p-
- ct,".,Y,::::J'
-,T'7Z m u
- a..........,o,(St b F,.," I 53
.:0.'.c'
....n
.s
,':3X.'h
.ea7's g ",',; 3 5
.o s,
..u o,..c.
'A
'.**lWi.ll*U.
~.
a.w.
IJ.S.liJ..."
.9: frf.
wsena.c eru u.s j
=
ADVISCTi'r.
iEE C!!
- a.. c m.
T.E ACT:.:( 5t. rig.11.TCS*
aagL r
~f."a..,
19 November 1976 Nr. Dade W. Moeller Chairman Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards
~
Huclear Regulatory Commission Wachington, D.C. 20555 pe2r Sir:
~
WW We are attorneys for several Intervenors in the
. g j
D).nblo Canyon Nuclear Generating Station operat,ing license hecrings.
We are sure you are a. tare that the Diablo Canyon i
matter is now before your Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards.
Your Committee is fccusing'on the seismic hazards. posed by the Hosgri fault which' runs 2-1/2 miles
'offchoro from the plant site.
In our investigation's regarding seismic hazards ct Diablo. Canyon, information that could affect the mag-nitudo of an earthquake at the plant site has come to our attention that..the Advisory Committee has not yet considered.
,, At present, your Committee is evaluating the se'isnic hazards
. posed by a fault approximately 100 railes in lengtF Enoun as the liosgri.
Recently, respected geologists wrk ng on Calfiornia faulting have cy.precsod the vicw Ge' V. 7 !!ongri links up to anotheer northwesLorly trending c,[4. L. t ' sault, the S~an Gregorio, to form one 300 nile long Ic. ult syst.cu i
running from Point Concepcion (tl'c southcant end of tha llongri f'aul t) cbd linking with the San Andrean fault north of San Francinco (the northweni. 'end of t!ic San G: cyorio j
Pault).
Por example, l'rofe:n:oc 1:13 Silsier, Chair. nan of the Department of Geology at t.hc linivernity of Caj.ifornia at Sadta Cruz, expre:tsed the viuv in a pren atation to the Los Angeles Danin G8clogical Suelety on Novemliar 2, 197G that ho llougri undJSan Gregorio'are joined dn one fault.
As wo underntand it, thc.llonyel and S.fn Gregorio are both well mapped along mont ofstlcir lengl.hn.
The y
A.h !? c TV I n$ i.i f e-,t
._.._ u....
n.
'W*
hi
}
....-a..
t
,)
i
- Hr. Dace W. Moeller
-21 19 November 1976 uncertainty lics'in an area of a few dozen miles near Point sur on'the Central California coast.
Apparently, if this,
arca was better mapped by geological surveying expeditions, the linkage of the two faults could be more con'vincingly catablished or refuted.
We believe that the Ad'visory Committee should know dafinitively whether the Hosgri is a 100 or a 300 mile long
~
fcult before it settles upon an estimate of earthquake mag-nitudo and other aspects of the seismic evaluation for the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant.
We believe that it would bc most inappropriate for the Advisory Committee to continue their analysis on the basis'of a 100 mile long fault without sxamining the views of the several reputable geologists who cr'e familiar with the relevant. data and believe that the
- fcult to be 300 miles long.
We urge you to consult geologists
.in the universitics and USGS who are familiar with Central California coastal faulting"to determine the state of know-1sdge reg.arding the possible San Gregorio-Hosgri linkage and,
, especially, what new surveys feasibly could be undertaken in the near future to est'ablish or refute the~ existence of the
. link..
In your investigation of this matter, we urge you j
cspecially to seek out views of reputable, independent, l
Througho6t the history'of the siting and con-geologists.
struction of the Diablo Canyon plant, independent scientists.
have sounded the warnings about offshore faulting that have proven truc, only to be ignored by the Nuclear Regulatory Co:m.innion and Pacific Gas and I:loctric Company.
For cxample, during the construction licensinif phase, geolocist Robert Curry, vho recently has donc work on the geological disaster at the Teton Dam, varned the Cor::nission and utility company about offshore faulting.
11ut th.e Tott.riireion never ordered curveys for faults under the' ocean nor did the utility take More recently, Clarence l'n31, Chairuan of offnhove surveyn.
the Ccology Dcpartment at the tiniversity of California at Los (D.neen.!.or *.'6,
Angelen, publinhed a definitive art.iele in Science 3976, Wito: l'10, pp.'1291-1294) before thn nueJear itcquia-tory Conainnion trould 'achnow]cdg. hi.a repente.1 ua rnin.ju t hat. -
the.2anuary, 1911 copo:-t by oil cr.mpany riealo.g ir:ts of t.hc,
m: int ence of t.im 3 00 mile long Itop.jri fault. was true.
Wo trunt the Advinory CommitLee wi11 condus.*t. a thorough inventistation of the potential lic.ny r i-f:.tn Gre r,sor io linhage wit.h proper attention to t.hu viewn of reputable independent scient.ints an vall an the Staf f of the flu.1c.ir Regulatory Comminnion.
We would apprec.iate hearinq #com you s
5
.9
- - ~
~
. s
~<.J.l
..x.
.').
)
L.,.y Mr. Dade W. Moeller 19 Noycmber 1976 regarding your plans for such an investigation at your carlicst conveniencc.
Yours sincerely, hf h,l CWit Bront N. Rushforth
,,Q$'{}D-~~
AfWNN James Geocaris
~
l cc:
Dale Bridenbaugh' i
Phillip Cranc, Jr.
J I-Richard Hubbard
'I'" N
- Gregory Minor Dr. David Okront. -
James Tourtellotte l
!, i I
't e
I e
e e
e
,s f
e e*
CENTER FoR LAW m sw
~
- ."'US.
~
IN THE PUBLIC INTEREST
)
aos santa wo eca soviewn o
}"
s w.
,,c,,,,,,,.
W.3,,.7..l"'t
- g,',, =
,", :: a rir*~ rioo
p; r g, g,,,,,
6..*=
ste c*uro g_
m e 3.........
.u g,
.T"'"*".<=.
so
. rive o,,,ce.
.W."*,
';t,,"' ""'
'2 "h"O'
, J.'l.
- "
- ::ll*."0L visma. nu.o
- l
-""a'""
a !b?'$**
19 November 1976 f
Mr. James Tourtellotte 7
Mr. Dow Davis 70 dIO t~u' Office of Executive Legal Director CETH 042
/ NN U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.
20555 Gentlemen:
A few days ago one of us talked with Mr. Dhvis
~ regarding new information on the fault, running 2-1/2 miles offshore from the Diablo Canyon plant site.
Several reputable
~m geologists who have done extensive work on the California coastal faulting now believe that the Hosgri fault links up to the San Gregorio fault to form a massive 300 mile long fault system that, in turn, runs into the San Andreas fault north of San Francisco.
Several of the' geologists who hold
~
this belief are now reporting their views publicly.
For cxample, Professor Eli Silver, Chairman of the Department of
~
Geology at the University of California at Santa Cruz, reported Iis view earlier this month at a program sponsored l
by the. Loc Angeles Basin Geological Society that the Hosgri 4 and San G: agorio formed a single fault system.
We realize that some of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's consultants at U.S.G.S. do not share the views of Silver and others regarding the connection of the Hosgri Cnd San Gr3gorio.
However, we beleive this divergence of ccientific opinion over a matter that could affect the mag-nitude of a credible earthquake at the Diablo plant site should be resolved so that the Commission's seismic analysis proceeds c.1 a realistic basis.
We do not think the seismic cnalycit
)r Diablo Canyon should proceed upon a fundamental cssurr@ti,
the length of the fault and the potential magnitu:.e if an earthquake on the fault, with which several reputable,cientists disagree.
9 i
f, fo T & w -!st
/Hs
Mr. Jamea Tourtollstto 19 Nov mber 1976 Mr..Dow. Davis
').
~)
~
In light of this new information, we would like to meet with you and the Diablo Canyon project manager, Mr.
Dennis Allison, to discuss this matter of the Hosgri-San Gregorio link.
We are interested especially in discussing g;ologic surveys of the possible site of the Hosgri-San Gregorio linkage around Point Sur that might confirm or rOfute the connection of the two faults.
If such surveys cre feasible, we believe that it is the regulatory responsi-bility of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to undertake them before the Diablo plant is licensed.
Frankly, gentlemen, our investigation of the history cf this case has left us most unimpressed with the regulatory z:al of the Commission.
Your decision not to require surveys fer offshore faulting during the construction license phase end your apparent foot-dragging in confirming the work of H: skins and Griffins is incomprehensible to us.
We trust that, with operating licensing of the Diablo plant imminent, ysur evaluation of the potential Hosgri-San Gregorio linkage will be more thorough and prompt.
Yours sincerely, MU#*"
(4 d
1 Brent N. Rushforth fC<f".,4f-.
!W'$
James'Geocaris cc:
Dale 3ridenbaugh Phillip Crane, Jr.
Rich ed Hubbard Gregt:y Minor l
l t
t t
r, '
~
8b-3BI A 46 i