Text

Transmittal of Non-proprietary Version of Westinghouse, WCAP-14907
	ML042510231
Person / Time
Site:	Cook
Issue date:	08/26/2004
From:	Zwolinski J; Indiana Michigan Power Co
To:	; Document Control Desk, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
	AEP:NRC:4239 WCAP-14907-NP
	Download: ML042510231 (341)
	v • d • e

Indiana Michigan Power Company 500 Circle Drive Buchanan, Ml 49107 1395 INDIANA MICHIGAN POWER August 26, 2004 AEP:NRC:4239 10 CFR 2.390 Docket Nos: 50-315 50-316 U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission ATTN: Document Control Desk Mail Stop O-P1-17 Washington, DC 20555-0001 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Units 1 and 2 TRANSMITTAL OF NON-PROPRIETARY VERSION OF WESTINGHOUSE WCAP 14907

References:

1) Letter from M. W. Rencheck, Indiana Michigan Power Company, to Document Control Desk, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, "Response to Request for Additional Information Regarding Unit 2 Control Rod Drive Mechanism Vessel Head Penetration Justification for Safe Operation Until January 19, 2002," C I10 1-13, dated November 28, 2001.

2) Letter from J. P. Gebbie, Indiana Michigan Power Company, to Document Control Desk, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, "Updated Affidavits for Withholding Proprietary Information," AEP:NRC:3279, dated June 20, 2003.

This letter transmits a non-proprietary version of a Westinghouse Electric Corporation report regarding control rod drive mechanism vessel head penetrations.

Reference I transmitted a Westinghouse Electric Corporation report, WCAP 14907, "Probabilistic Evaluation of Reactor Vessel Closure Head Penetration Integrity for the Donald C. Cook Units 1 and 2," Revision 1, dated November 2001. The WCAP contained information proprietary to Westinghouse. Accordingly, Reference 1 also transmitted an affidavit requesting that the proprietary information in the WCAP be withheld from public disclosure pursuant to 10 CFR 2.790 (which has since been replaced by 10 CFR 2.390). Reference 2 transmitted an updated affidavit for withholding WCAP 14907, Revision 1, from public disclosure. The attachment to this letter provides a non-proprietary version of the WCAP, designated as DOI

U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commitment AEP:NRC:4239 Page 2 WCAP 14907-NP, Revision 2, dated August 2004, which may be made available for public disclosure.

There are no new regulatory commitments contained in this letter. Should you have any questions, please contact Mr. Michael K. Scarpello, Supervisor of Licensing, at (269) 697-5020.

Sincerely, John A. Zwolinski, Safety Assurance Director JW/rdw

Attachment:

WCAP-14907-NP, Revision 2, "Probabilistic Evaluation of Reactor Vessel Closure Head Penetration Integrity for the Donald C. Cook Units I and 2," dated August 2004.

c: J. L. Caldwell, NRC Region III K. D. Curry, Ft. Wayne AEP, w/o attachment Director, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation J. T. King, MPSC, w/o attachment J. G. Lamb, NRC Washington DC MDEQ - WHMD/HWRPS, w/o attachment NRC Resident Inspector

ATTACHMENT TO AEP:NRC:4239 WCAP-14907-NP, REVISION 2, "PROBABILISTIC EVALUATION OF REACTOR VESSEL CLOSURE HEAD PENETRATION INTEGRITY FOR THE DONALD C. COOK UNITS 1 AND 2," DATED AUGUST 2004.

NON-PROPRIETARY

Westinghouse Non-Proprietary Class 3 WCAP-14907-NP August-2004 Revision 2 (Revision 1 was never issued)

Probabilistsic Evaluation of Reactor Vessel Closure Head Penetration Integrity for the Donald C.Cook Units 1 and 2 Westinghouse

r WESTINGHOUSE NON-PROPRIETARY CLASS 3 WCAP-14907-NP Revision 2 Probabilistic Evaluation of Reactor Vessel Closure Head Penetration Integrity for the Donald C. Cook Units 1 and 2 W. H. Bamford Primary Systems Aging Management B. A. Bishop Systems and Safety Analysis J. F. Duran Primary Systems Aging Management D.E.Boyle Primary Systems Aging Management Date August, 2004 Reviewer: (i/ t vr x G.V. Rao Science & Technology Westinghouse Electric Company LLC P.O. Box 355 Pittsburgh, PA 15230-0355

TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ...................................................... :.,.: ii 1.0 Introduction .......................................................... 1-1 2.0 Development of a Crack Growth Rate Model for Alloy 600 Head Penetrations ..........2-1 3.0 Westinghouse Crack Initiation Model Development and Crack Initiation Testing ....... 3-1 4.0 Technical Description of Probabilistic Model .......................................................... 4-1.

5.0 Results of Probabilistic Model .......................................................... 5-1 6.0 Summary .......................................................... 6-1 7.0 References .......................................................... 7-1 Appendix A - Input and Output Parameters for the VHIPNPROF Program . .A-i

EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

This report is intended for use in response to NRC Generic Letter 97-01. Cracking in Alloy 600 reactor vessel head penetrations is a relatively new issue to the nuclear industry. The issue was first brought to the world's attention in 1991 when, after 10 years of operation, a leak was detected during a hydrotest of the reactor coolant system at the Bugey Unit 3 power plant in France. Since then a significant number of studies and research programs have been funded by the industry to determine the causes of the problem and develop strategies for repair and management.

Through these programs and subsequent studies it was concluded that reactor pressure vessel head CRDM penetration cracking at Bugey Unit 3 is induced by is a thermally activated stress corrosion mechanism operative in primary water environments, more commonly known as primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC). Based on conservative evaluation results, the NRC and industry concluded that PWSCC cracks were most likely lo initiate from the inside surface of the penetrations, in the axial orientation, and would take at least six years to propagate through the wall under the typical plant operating conditions. Fracture mechanics evaluations have determined that the crack is non-critical until its axial length reaches 8.5 inches to 20 inches, depending on plant design. Therefore this issue is an economic one, and does not constitute a serious challenge lo plant safety.

External circumferential cracking is less probable. It may occur only in the presence of an above the weld through-wall crack, with active leakage. Assuming coolant is present on the outer diameter of the penetration, one conservative analysis estimated that it would take more than 90 years before penetration failure would occur. In the presence of reactor coolant, corrosion wastage of the alloy steel RV head is possible. Conservative evaluations estimate that it would take longer than six years after a through-wall crack occurs before the code structural integrity margin for the RV head would be impacted by corrosion. It was concluded that periodic visual inspection of the RV head in accordance with Generic Letter 8-05 is adequate to maintain plant safety, and sufficient to detect leakage prior to significant penetration cracking and vessel head corrosion.

Worldwide, approximately 5,200 Alloy 600 RV head penetrations have been inspected since the first cracking was observed in 1991. Approximately 2 percent of these penetrations are reported to be cracked. Most of the cracks were observed in French RV head penetrations. If the French inspection records are removed from the inspected population, the percentage of head penetrations with indications is only about 0.5 percent. Only one plant worldwide has experienced PWSCC head penetration through-wall leakage, and this was from a single penetration.

Specialized NDE methods have been developed and verified using mock-ups to ensure accurate inspections. Flaws were introduced into the mock-up penetrations by artificial means.

The ability of these NDE methods to detect and size the potential PWSCC indications in the vessel head penetrations was demonstrated. Flaw acceptance criteria were established by the industry, and approved by the NRC staff.

The Westinghouse Owners Group has developed methods to evaluate the PWSCC susceptibility and the probability of a penetration initiating a crack, or a leak, as a function of ii

plant operation time. This information has been used to evaluate the need for inspection of the reactor vessel head penetrations or other appropriate actions.

Through participation in WOG and U.S. industry programs, Indiana/Michigan Power Company has taken a proactive approach to address the cracking issue in RV head penetrations. This approach is based on the conclusion that the issue is not an immediate safety concern, because (1) the PWSCC process is slow; (2) the allowable or critical flaw size is large; (3) leak-before-break (LBB) will occur to allow safe shutdown of a plant and (4) at least six additional years of operation with a penetration leak is required before ASME Code structural margins are challenged.

This report contains the specific results for the Donald C. Cook Units 1 and 2 Plants, and these results are being incorporated into an integrated response to the Generic Letter 97-01, which Is being prepared in cooperation with the Nuclear Energy Institute. This response was transmitted to the NRC in the Fall of 1997.

iii

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1

SUMMARY

OF THE SAFETY EVALUATIONS The purpose of this section is to review the significance of cracking in pressurized water reactor (PWR) vessel head penetrations and to describe the management of the issue in response to the recently released NRC Generic Letter 97-01. This report covers the following areas:

worldwide PWSCC history in head penetrations; safety evaluation conclusions reached by WOG and industry and approved by the NRC relative to PWSCC; and a number of supporting tasks performed by Westinghouse for the WOG concerning this issue. The latest findings on this subject are summarized, along with response to specific questions in Generic Letter 97-01.

In February of 1993, Westinghouse and the Westinghouse Owners Group performed an assessment of the continued safe operation of Westinghouse designed NSSS plants in light of the cracking that had been reported in French supplied and operated plant reactor vessel head penetrations.

Westinghouse reviewed the available metallographic and fractographic data from the French plant and concurred with the EdF conclusion that the mechanism of degradation of the Bugey 3 reactor vessel penetration was due to primary water stress corrosion cracking.

The Westinghouse safety evaluation [1] provided the following elements:

1. A summary of the vessel head penetration stress analyses that focuses on the nature and orientation of cracking that may occur in the Alloy 600 penetration material. The Westinghouse evaluation concluded that the penetration residual stress induced by welding into the reactor vessel head was the initiating source promoting crack initiation and growth In a susceptible microstructure.

2. A summary of the crack propagation analysis along with the basis of the prediction methodology. As indicated in Section 2 of this report, continued crack growth testing has confirmed the initial expectations. The analysis also predicted that cracking would be axial and any cracks formed would be limited in extent by the penetration stress field distribution.

The crack lengths predicted were found to be much smaller than the length of cracking required for any instability. The existence of circumferential cracking is unlikely due to the nature of stress distribution In the penetrations (i.e., hoop stress dominates the stress field).

3. A description of an assessment of the Westinghouse Owners Group vessels with respect to crack indications reported at Ringhals, Beznau, and various EdF plants. Important parameters applicable for crack initiation (i.e., time, temperature, stress, and material) were compared to those of Ringhals, Beznau and EdF plants. A comparison of susceptibility predictions suggested that the WOG vessels were generally less susceptible than Ringhals.

However, several vessels were found to be more susceptible. Since this initial evaluation, three of these vessels were inspected for penetration cracking. One vessel head was found with cracking in a single penetration and no cracking was found in the penetrations of the other two plants. The level and depth of cracking was found to be covered by the Westinghouse Safety Evaluation.

1-1

4. A penetration leakage assessment summarizing leak rate vs. crack size. Expectations from this evaluation were that (a)leakage would be detected well before cracks extended to their critical flaw size (through-wall, and 8.5-20 inches long) and (b) Boron deposits would be significant enough from small flaws to be readily visible during a Generic Letter 8805 walkdown.

5. A vessel head wastage and structural evaluation. The evaluation showed that the loss of approximately 1.0 in3 of vessel head material per year could be expected if cracks initiated and propagated through wall, however, vessel structural margins would be maintained for at least six additional years following the through wall leak.

1.2 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND In 1991, during a hydrotest of the reactor coolant system at the Bugey Unit 3 power plant in France, a leak from the reactor vessel head was detected by acoustic monitoring [2].

Subsequent investigation, by visual examination and destructive testing, revealed that the leak came from a through wall flaw in one of the head penetrations. Further inspections on this and many other plants in France led to the discovery of flaws in the head penetrations of several plants. Examinations confirmed that the problem was directly related to Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC).

EdF conducted additional CRDM (Control Rod Drive Mechanism) penetration inspections at its nuclear plants, using eddy current techniques for indication detection and ultrasonic methods for defect size determination. Inspection results and metallurgical examinations confirmed PWSCC in CRDM penetrations at several other EdF plants. This was a concern to the French regulatory authorities as well as to the other PWR owners and regulatory authorities around the world.

These incidents are similar in nature to what occurred to other Alloy 600 tubular parts used in the Reactor Coolant System (RCS). Over the past few years, cracks in Alloy 600 pressurizer heater sleeve penetrations and instrumentation nozzles [3, 4] have been reported at non-Westinghouse supplied domestic and French PWR plants.. InFebruary 1990 the USNRC issued information Notice 90-10 on this issue 151. The Notice informed PWR utilities of a number of incidences of PWSCC of Alloy 600 inapplications other than steam generator tubing and suggested that utilities review their Alloy 600 applications and implement an augmented inspection program as necessary. In 1990, EPRI issued a report [4] which suggested that utilities should identify locations where Alloy 600 is used on the primary side, review the material and fabrication records to assess material susceptibility to PWSCC in terms of microstructure, stress, and environment, and implement an inspection program to detect leakage or cracking with the view of replacing susceptible components, as appropriate.

The Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG) and Westinghouse Initiated and helped to lead a joint industry owners group under NUMARC, now the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), beginning in 1992. The group consists of all owners of Pressurizer Water Reactors in the USA along with EPRI. This group shared technical information and developed consistent safety evaluations and evaluation procedures for flaws that may be found during inspections. The group also worked with EPRI to develop inspection performance demonstrations for the head penetration inspections. The group demonstrated to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission that cracking on the head penetrations was not an immediate safety Issue. The NRC concurred with the 1-2

Westinghouse conclusion, stating that vessel head penetration cracking is not an immediate safety issue [6).

1.3 INSPECTIONS PERFORMED TO DATE In 1994, two WOG/Westinghouse PWR plants in the US (Point Beach Unit 1 and D. C. Cook Unit 2) voluntarily performed inspections of the CRDM penetrations. The results showed that there were no indications found in Point Beach Unit 1. Three indications were found in a single penetration at D.C. Cook Unit 2. These were significant cracks but considerably smaller than the NRC approved acceptance -limit.

In Spring of 1996, D. C. Cook Unit 2 re-inspected some of their penetrations that had been previously inspected and confirmed the same indications reported earlier. No new indications were found and the existing indication was successfully repaired. Meanwhile, North Anna Unit I inspected 20 out of the total complement of 65 penetrations. No indications were found.

A large number of inspections have been performed on Westinghouse supplied reactor vessel head penetrations throughout the world, and this section will document those inspections, and the findings to date.

ASME Code Section Xi inspections (VT-3) have been performed for a number years on the head penetration to reactor vessel partial penetration weld, and the weld between the head penetration tube and the control rod drive mechanism (CRDM). While these inspections do not cover the Alloy 600 inside diameter surface region of the head penetration directly, they do provide surveillance information on the head penetration region, and must be performed on every penetration once every ten years. To date no indications have been reported.

A second series of inspections which have been carried out regularly since 1988 involves visual surveillance of the head for boron deposits which would be evidence of leaks, following NRC Generic Letter 88-05. Some boron deposits have been found by this surveillance, but the sources of the leakage were not from cracked head penetrations. Generally these leaks have been associated with mechanical seals or canopy seals on the vessel head.

Westinghouse supplied NSSS plants in Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Belgium, Brazil, and Korea have conducted NDE inspections on Reactor Vessel Head Penetrations. By the beginning of 1996, some 5200 penetrations had been inspected worldwide. The results are summarized in Table 1-1. On average, indications were found in approximately 2% of the penetrations that were inspected. Based on Table 1-1, it appears that the rate of indications at U.S. plants is significantly less than that of the French plants. The operating time for the plants of US manufacture where the inspections have been performed has in most cases been much longer than for the French plants. Of all these inspections, only one penetration was found to have through-wall cracking: the Bugey plant where cracking was first identified.

It wilI be of interest to examine the history of inspections of the plants of Westinghouse design worldwide. as well as the plants of Westinghouse design with US fabrication. A relatively large number of these plants have been inspected, and very few indications have been found.

Outside of France, a total of 39 plants of Westinghouse design have been inspected. Of approximately 1900 penetrations inspected, only 10 were reported to be cracked, amounting to a less than 0.6 percentage. Of the 39 plants, 9 were manufactured in the USA, and for these 1-3 November 2001

plants approximately 310 penetrations were inspected with only one reported to be cracked.

Thus, f; r Westinghouse plants manufactured in the USA, only 0.3 percent of the penetrations have oeen found to be cracked.

Root cause evaluations concluded that the cracks were caused by PWSCC of the Alloy 600 material. Electricite de France (EdF) and Westinghouse concluded that the following factors contributed to the Bugey Unit 3 PWSCC.

Susceptible microstructure produced during manufacturing

Surface finish on the inside diameter surface of the penetration

Stresses induced during welding, which caused ovalization of the penetration 1-4

TABLE 1-1 WORLDWIDE VESSEL HEAD PENETRATION PWSCC INSPECTION RESULTS*

Number of Total No. of Number of Penetrations Rate of Plants Penetrations Penetrations With Indication Country Inspected in the plants Inspected Indications Detected" France 47 3225 3213 105 3.3%

Sweden 3 195 190 7 3.7%

Switzerland 2 72 72 2 2.8%

Japan 17 960 834 0 0 Belgium 7 435 435 0 0 Spain 5 325 102 0 0 Brazi 1 40 40 0 0 South Africa 1 63 63 0 0 South Korea 1 65 65 0 United States 5 314 217 1 0.5%

Total: 89 5694 5231 115 2.0%

Based on data available as of January 1996 (Europe) and July 1996 (U.S.).

4 Ratio of number of penetrations with indications detected to number of penetrations inspected.

Oconee indications were not counted as cracks, because they had no measurable depth. Eddy current reinspection after one cycle did not indicate any growth 1-5

1.4 WOG AND NUCLEAR INDUSTRY PROGRAMS

SUMMARY

A number of WOG programs were initiated to investigate the reactor vessel head penetration PWSCC issue. The key programs are summarized in Table 1-2. Additionally, selected utility programs have been responsible for the resolution of IGA due to sulfur species, and penetration attachment weld cracking. Domestically, the Babcock and Wilcox Owners Group (BWOG), Combustion Engineering Owners Group (CEOG), Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) agreed to combine their efforts as part of the Nuclear Energy Institute's (NEI) Alloy 600 CROM Head Penetration Cracking Task Force.

The purpose of the task force was to evaluate the issue and to recommend appropriate generic actions. Through this effort, the Owners Groups (OGs) and EPRI have conducted the following tasks:

Performed safety analyses of vessel head penetration cracking

Standardized flaw evaluation methods

Developed flaw acceptance criteria

Developed inspection methodologies to size indications in head penetrations

Evaluated remedial measures and created probabilistic and economic decision making tools

Evaluated leakage effects on the vessel head low alloy steel shell In addition, WOG has developed penetration repair techniques, plant inspection guidelines, and evaluated available leakage detection devices.

The NRC has evaluated the safety analyses and concluded that PWSCC of Alloy 600 head penetration is not an immediate safety concern [61.

Under the programs, research on PWSCC was conducted domestically and overseas, for example, as shown in Refs. 3,7,8. 9 and 10. The studies focused on material aspects and mechanics. Material aspects, thermornechanical processing effects, material properties, residual stresses, and microstructure were studied. A model of PWSCC susceptibility and cracking probability was developed (10].

Finite element analyses were performed to determine stresses In the penetrations. The finite element analyses performed included simulation of the whole spectrum of the mechanical fabrication sequences experienced by the RV head penetrations, such as the welding process, hydrotest, straightening and service loads. The finite element simulations allowed the determination of the applied as well as the residual stresses in the penetrations under any given specific geometrical, material, welding, temperature, and loading conditions. Based on the stress data, PWSCC initiation, crack propagation, and final failure were then evaluated. The analysis also furnished results for the time period required for the PWSCC to penetrate through the wall thickness of the penetration and the critical crack size above which instability would occur. Initial crack growth behavior was assumed to be represented by the model developed by P. Scott [11).

Confirmatory crack growth laboratory testing was immediately begun to verify that this initial assessment was correct. The integrity model was structured to be applicable to all penetrations regardless of product form or vessel fabricator. Subsequent testing to obtain comparison data in this area was initiated in 1996. The crack growth test results and preliminary crack initiation test results are discussed in Sections 2 and 3.

1-7

A TABLE 1-2

SUMMARY

OF KEY TASKS PERFORMED BY WOG Item Task Description Status I Root Cause of Cracking C 2 Key Material & Operation Parameters C 3 Elastic Finite Element Analysis: C Residual/Operational 4 Elastic/Plastic Finite Element Analysis: C Residual/Operational; 3 Locations 5 Crack Propagation/Acceptable Flaw Size C Analysis 6 Penetration Leakage & Vessel Head C Wastage Assessment 7 Safety Evaluation C 8 Plant ScreeninglSusceptibility Criteria C 9 Material Microstructure Characteristics C 10 Leakage Detection Methods Survey C 11 Evaluation of PWSCC Mitigation Methods 0 12 Grinding Effect on Residual Stresses C 13 Development/Evaluation of Repaired C Configurations 14 OD Crack Assessment C 15 Crack Growth Data and Testing 0 16 Inspection Timing and Economic Decision C Tools 17 Penetration Attachment Weld Safety C Evaluation Report 18 Crack Initiation Characterization Studies 0 19 Residual Stress Measurements C 20 Development of PWSCC Susceptibility C Ranking Models Key: C = Complete 0 = Ongoing.

1-8

2.0 DEVELOPMENT OF A CRACK GROWTH RATE MODEL FOR ALLOY 600 HEAD PENETRATIONS Crack growth rate testing has been underway since 1992 to characterize the behavior of head penetration materials. The "modified Scott model,- as described below was initially used for safety evaluation calculations in the NRC submittals made in 1992 and 1993. The goal of this section of the report is to review the applicability of that model in light of the past five years of testing, during which over forty specimens have been tested representing 15 heats Alloy 600 of material. The original basis of the model will be reviewed, followed by all the available laboratory results, and finally a treatment of the available field results.

The effort to develop a reliable crack growth rate prediction model for Alloy 600 began in the Spring of 1992, when the Westinghouse, Combustion Engineering, and Babcock and Wilcox Owners Groups were developing a safety case to support continued operation of plants. At the time there was no available crack growth rate data for head penetration materials, and only a few publications existed on growth rates of Alloy 600 in any product form.

The best available publication was found to be that of Peter Scott of Framatome, who had developed a growth rate model for PWR steam generator materials [I 1]. His model was based on a study of results obtained by Mcllree and Smialowska 112] who had tested short steam generator tubes which had been flattened into thin compact specimens. His model is shown in Figure 2-1. Upon study of his paper there were several ambiguities, and several phone conversations were held to clarify his conclusions. These discussions indicated that Reference 11 contains an error, in that no correction for cold work was applied to the Mcilree/Smialowska data. The revision of the Peter Scott model is presented below.

An equation was fitted to the data of Reference 12 for the results obtained in water chemistries that fell within the standard specification for PWR primary coolant. Results for chemistries outside the specification were not used. The following equation was fitted to the data for a temperature of 330 0C:

da = 2.8 x 10-1 1 (K-9)1 16 m/secl dt where K is in MPam] 5'. This equation implies a threshold for cracking susceptibility.

Kiscc = 9 MPa[mr . Correction factors for other temperatures are shown in Table 2-1.

The next step described by Scott [11] in his paper was to correct these results for the effects of cold work. Based on work by Cassagne and Gelpi 1133, he concluded that dividing the above equation by a factor of 10 would be appropriate to account for (he effects of cold work. This step was inadvertently omitted from Scott's paper, even though it was discussed. The revised crack growth model for 330DC then becomes:

da = 2.8 x 10-12 (K-9)16 mIsec2 This equation was verified by Scott in a phone call in July 1992.

2-1

Scott further corrected this model for the effects of temperature, but his correction was not used in the model employed. Instead, an independent temperature correction-was developed based on service experience. This correction uses an activation energy of 32.4 kCal/mole, which gives a smaller temperature correction than that used by Scott (44 kcallmole), and will be discussed in more detail below.

Scott's crack growth model for 3300C was independently obtained by B. Woodman of ABB-CE

[14], who went back to the original data base, and had a smaller correction for cold work. His equation was of a slightly different form:

da = 0.2 exp [A+ B In fln (K- C)]

dt Where A = -25.942 B = 3.595 C = the threshold for cracking This equation is nearly identical with Peter Scott's original model uncorrected for cold work.

This work provided an independent verification of Scott's work. A further verification of the modified Scott model used here was provided by some operational crack growth rates collected by Hunt, et al [15].

The final verification of Peter Scott's model will come from actual data from head penetration materials in service, as will be discussed in detail below. To date 15 heats have been tested in carefully controlled PWR environment. One heat did not crack, and of the fourteen heats where cracking was observed, the growth rates observed in twelve were bounded by the Scott model. Two heats cracked at a faster growth rate, and the explanation for this behavior is being investigated.

A compilation was made of the laboratory data obtained to date in the Westinghouse laboratory tests at 3250C, and the results are in Figure 2-3. Notice that much of the data is far below the Scott model, and a few data points are above the model. These results represent 14 heats of head penetration materials.

The effect of temperature on crack growth rate was first studied by compiling all the available crack growth rate data, for both laboratory and field cracking of Alloy 600. This information Is summarized in Figure 2-2, where the open symbols are for steam generator tube materials, and the solid symbols are for head penetration materials. The results are presented in a simple format, with crack growth plotted as a function of temperature. The effect of stress intensity factor variation has been ignored in this presentation, and this doubtless adds to the scatter in the data. The remarkable result is a consistent temperature effect over a temperature range from 2880C to 3700C, more than covering the temperature range of PWR plant operation although there is a wide scatter band in the figure. The work done originally in 1992 results in a calculated activation energy of 32.4 Kcal/mole, which has been used to adjust the base crack growth law to account for different operating temperatures.

A series of crack growth tests is in progress under carefully controlled conditions to study the temperature effect for head penetration materials, and the results obtained to-date are shown in 2-2

Figure 2-2. Sufficient results are available to report preliminary findings. The tests were performed with -an applied stress intensity factor of 23 Ksi /i; 1 (25.3 MPa[ml 0 5), periodic unload/reload parameters of a hold time of one hour and a water chemistry of 1200 ppm B +

2 ppm Li + 25 cclkg H2. The results are consistent with the previous steam generator and head penetration material work. In the case of heat 69, the three results in the middle of the temperature range, 3090C, 3270C and 3410C have the same trend as the scatter band, almost exactly, while the high temperature and low temperature results are both lower than would be predicted by the activation energy, as shown in Figure 2-2. The results for heat 20 show a similar behavior, with the results at 3250C and 3400C also within the scatter band and nearly parallel to the heat 69 specimens, but at a lower crack growth rate, as shown in Figure 2-2.

The effects of several different water chemistries have been investigated in a closely controlled series of tests, on two different heats of archive material. Results showed that there is no measurable effect of Boron and Lithium on crack growth.

The key test of the laboratory crack growth data is its comparison to field data. Crack growth from actual head penetrations has been plotted on Figure 2-2 as solid points. The solid circles are from Swedish and French plants and the solid stars are from a US plant.

Figure 2-4 shows a summary of the inservice cracking experience in the head penetrations of French plants, prepared by Amzallag [163. compared with the Westinghouse laboratory data, corrected for temperature. This figure shows excellent agreement between lab and field data, further supporting the applicability of the lab data.

Therefore it can be seen that the laboratory data is well represented by the Scott model corrected for temperature using an activation energy of 32.4 kcalrnole. Also the laboratory results are consistent with the crack growth rates measured on actual installed penetrations.

Therefore the use of the modified Scott model in the safety evaluations and other evaluations of head penetration integrity is still justifiable, in light of both laboratory and field data obtained to date.

2-3

TABLE 2-1 TEMPERATURE CORRECTION FACTORS FOR CRACK GROWTH: ALLOY 600 Temperature Correction Factor (CF) Coefficient (Co) 330C 1.0 2.8 x 10'a 325 0.798 2.23 x 10"

- 320 0.634 1.78 x 10 1 310 0.396 1.11 x 10o" 300 0.243 7.14 x 10'-

290 0.147 4.12 x10o,-

da =

Co (K-9)'f 6 mrs dt where K is in MPa[m] 05 2-4

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1 E

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I -1 rem i I i I i L I I I i 0.01 _______- _______.4~=*FIELD j--; - l' : 4 I° ~ -!-I.--- .--

i-i- wtItinu

- Lac)! _

=_ , ! : -- r* ; -£t . l * . 1_T_____D_-

0.001 0 . 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Kl (Mpa n?)

Figure 2-4 Comparison of French Field Data and Westinghouse Laboratory Data (W results reduced to 290°C using Q = 130 KJImole) [16J 2-8

3.0 WESTINGHOUSE CRACK INITIATION MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND CRACK INITIATION TESTING 3.1 CRACK INITIATION MODEL Westinghouse advanced an Alloy 600 PWSCC initiation model for primary components in Pressurized Water Reactors [10]. Briefly, the model incorporates three contributing factors for the prediction of crack initiation time; namely, material condition, stress, and temperature.

These are discussed below.

Material Condition and Microstructure

-As reported by several authors [17, 18, 19, 20, and 211, the Alloy 600 microstructure is a function of the thermomechanical history of the material heat as well as its carbon content.

Alloy 600 material heats subjected to mill annealing at low temperatures, i.e., 9260C or less, exhibit a fine grained microstructure with heavy transgranular carbide precipitation and little or no carbides precipitate on the grain boundaries. Such a microstructure Is reported to be more susceptible to PWSCC. On the other hand, a high temperature mill-anneal (>1000C) tends to put more carbon into solution, increases grain size, produces grain boundary chromium carbide precipitation and renders the material more resistant to resist PWSCC. Noring, et. al. [22], did not find a correlation between the total content of carbon and the crack initiation time, but they observed good correlation between the amount of grain boundary carbides and crack initiation time. The fact that grain boundary precipitation is beneficial to PWSCC has been reported by many researchers [23]. Norring, et. al., [22], showed that the crack initiation time varied directly (linearly) with grain boundary carbides. Their data suggested that when the grain boundary carbide coverage is increased by a factor of 3, the crack initiation time also increased by a similar factor (from 4,000 hours0 days 0 hours 0 weeks 0 months to 12,000 hours0 days 0 hours 0 weeks 0 months ). Bandy and Van Rooyen 124], pointed out that in addition to grain boundary carbide coverage, other features relating to processing history variables such as carbon concentration gradients, substructural features, grain size distribution, cold work, Intragranular carbide distribution and the grain boundary segregates all play an important role in the cracking behavior of the Alloy 600 material.

When considering the influence of microstructure on the PWSCC susceptibility for the purpose of the current evaluation, to enable comparison of heats fabricated at different vendor shops, the thermomechanical processing history effect is separated from the grain boundary carbide coverage effects. In general, the influence of the grain boundary carbides is known and the coverage (G) can be easily measured directly from the microstructure. The influence of other structural features due to processing history cannot be assessed directly. These processing effects are represented in the current treatment by a single parameter (A) characteristic of the fabrication shop (vendor). This approach provides a means of comparing the PWSCC susceptibilities of Alloy 600 material heats from different vendor shops although they may contain similar grain boundary carbide contents.

3-1

Influence of Stress Steady state tensile stress in the component, either due to residual and/or applied loads, has a strong influence on the PWSCC.

Bandy and Van Rooyen [24], reported that the time to failure varied inversely as the fourth power of applied stress in both annealed and coldworked specimens. They also reported data to support that coldwork reduces the resistance to PWSCC. The effective stress at a given Alloy 600 location is a function of the fabrication steps and their sequence, the yield stress of the material, and the service stress. In general, the local residual stresses resulting from fabrication can play a more significant role than the service stresses themselves.

Temperature Effects Several investigators [17, 24], examined the role of temperature on PWSCC. It is well established from these results that the crack initiation time decreases exponentially with temperature and that they are related through an Arrhenius equation expressed as a function of the activation energy of the process. The experimental results confirm that Alloy 600 PWSCC is a thermally activated process and the activation energy for the process varies approximately between 50 to 55 kcal per more. An activation energy value of 55 kcalmole is consistently applied throughout the current assessments, for crack initiation. A different value, 32.4 applies for crack growth as was discussed in Section 2.

3.2 THE WESTINGHOUSE CRACK INITIATION MODEL Consistent with the contributing factors discussed above, the crack initiation time (t) or the rate of crack initiation (1it;) is proportional:

1/t, a (Stress)"

cc e QRT a inverse of the grain boundary carbide coverage factor, (1(G)

On IRT so that lt, a G Since the nature of the vendor thermrnomechanical processing is also a significant contributing factor, one can say that for a given fabrication process an eQ1RT 1/t 1 =A G (3-1) 3-2

The proportionality constant 'A' can be chosen to represent the processing conditions representative of a given manufacturing process or manufacturer, and could include parameters such as yield strength as part of the expression.

'A' can be assessed for a given heat by substituting the parameters of a service component with a known cracking history for the heat of material. 'A will then represent the processing condition (or the vendor) by the definition we have just established.

The parameters in the above rate equation (3-1) are described below:

A is a constant, relating to the processing, and fabrication conditions of the material G is the grain boundary carbide coverage factor PD is the effective tensile stress (resulting from applied and residual stresses) n is the stress exponent having a value ranging from 3.5 to 4.5 for Alloy 600 in primary water o is the activation energy for the crack initiation process and has an approximate value of 55 kcallmole R is the gas constant (1.987 callmole degrees K)

T is the absolute temperature in degrees K, and ti is the time to initiate cracking.

3.3 CRACK INITIATION TESTING Westinghouse currently has an ongoing autoclave test program to establish the PWSCC crack initiation behavior of archive Alloy 600 RV head penetration material heats from a variety of fabricators representative of microstructures of RV head penetrations that are currently in service. The objectives of the Program are:

To determine the effect of penetration microstructure and material type (vendor) on the relative susceptibility to cracking.

To define a material index (A) to assist in plant maintenance planning.

The program is sponsored by EPRI and the CE, W, and B&W owners groups. The accelerated testing is conducted under dense steam with hydrogen at 4000C and utilizes full size ring samples fabricated from RV head penetration tubing from different vendor shops. A listing of vendor shops representing the ring samples employed in the testing is provided in Table 3-1.

To provide reference benchmarking, samples from steam generator rolled transition tubing and 3-3

Alloy 690 penetration material are also included in the test matrix. Penetration material specimens with known crack growth behavior measurements from previous test programs are included for comparison with other data.

This environment has been shown to provide adequate acceleration (up to 500x) to provide results within the test period. This will be verified using the specimens from heats that have been tested previously. Test samples under the doped steam test will be inspected at 25, 50, 100, 200,400, 800, 1400 and 2000 hours0.0231 days 0.556 hours 0.00331 weeks 7.61e-4 months . Inspection will include visual, metallographic and destructive examinations.

The ID surfaces of the ring samples are strained by controlled cyclic ovalization to simulate the residual hoop stresses in the plant The stresses are quantified based on the ovalization. The final cycle of ovalization is calibrated to induce a 2mm difference in measured inside diameter.

This corresponds to the upper 95% of the measured ovality in the outermost penetrations in service. The cyclic straining procedure of the full ring samples is illustrated by the loading curve shown in Figure 3-1.

The testing is conducted under two phases. The first phase involves a cumulative exposure of up to 800 hours0.00926 days 0.222 hours 0.00132 weeks 3.044e-4 months in six exposure intervals. Periodic inspections are performed at 25, 50, 100, 200, 400 and 800 cumulative hours of exposure. The second phase testing involves the exposure of specimens for a cumulative exposure of up to 2000 hours0.0231 days 0.556 hours 0.00331 weeks 7.61e-4 months with an interim inspection at 1400 hours0.0162 days 0.389 hours 0.00231 weeks 5.327e-4 months . Currently, with the Phase I testing completed, the preliminary test results indicate dear trends in the initiation behavior. Out of the six heats of material tested, two of the heats consistently showed higher susceptibility to cracking; the worst heat being the heat that also showed the highest crack growth rate under the crack growth test program discussed in Section 2. Further useful trends in cracking behavior are expected at the end of the 2000 hours0.0231 days 0.556 hours 0.00331 weeks 7.61e-4 months exposure. The overall results of the program are expected to provide useful information for plant maintenance planning.

3-4

TABLE 3-1 MATERIAL HEATS EMPLOYED INTHE ALLOY 60D RVHP CRACK INITIATION TESTS S No. Heat No. Supplier Fabricator As Pred. Size 1 93510 B&W B&W Y" (6 pcs) 2 93510-R B&W B&W YW- (6 pcs) 3 91069 B&W B&W %- (6 pcs) 4 93511 B&W B&W ? (6 pcs) 5 WF675 B&W Creusot Loire 3-5I8' (1 pc) 6 WFI51 Sizewell Creusot Loire 3-W (1 pc) 7 M-7817-1 (EO- CE Standard Steel 4-1/8- (1pc) 6943#2) 8 R13-4 (NX64209) CE Huntington 4-118 (1 pc) 9 NX8101-75 Huntington 6 (1 pc) 10 NX34C3-68 Huntington 6 (1pc) 11 R177 Vattenfall Sandvik 6 (1 pc) 3-5

Active and Residual Strains during Residual Stress Introduction 40000 I9 30000 C

20000 "i

0 10000 aI-9 0

I *10000

-20000 0 0.25 0.25 0.75 0.75 1.25 1.25 1.75 1.75 relax relax relax relax Loading Cycle I Lload (pounds). - -s - Strain (ue) 12:00/6:00

Strain (ue) 3:00/9:00 Figure 3-1 Residual Stresses and Strains Induced During Controlled Cyclic Ovalization of RV Penetration Ring Samples I 3-6 I

k

4.0 TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION OF PROBABILISTIC MODELS To calculate the probability of failure of the Alloy 600 vessel head penetration as a function of operating time t, Pr(t < tf), structural reliability models were used with Monte-Carlo simulation methods. This section describes these structural reliability models and their basis for the primary failure mode of crack initiation and growth due to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC). The models used for the evaluation of head penetration nozzles are based upon the probabilistic and economic decision tools developed previously for the Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG). The capabilities of this software have already been verified in the following ways:

1. Calculated stresses compare well with measured stresses (see Figure 4-1),

2. Crack growth rates agree with measured field data (see Figures 2-3 and 2-4).

Recent improvements have also been made to the model in order to maximize its use for individual plant predictions. Among the changes were:

1. The model accepts measured microstructure (replication) and also has the capability to ignore its effects, if desired.

2. The relationship of initiation time to material microstructural effects and yield strength has been improved to more closely match the observations from the recent inspection at North Anna Unit 1,

3. Statistically based Bayesean updating of probabilities due to initial inspection results has been added (e.g. the lack of any indications at any given plant),

4. The uncertainty on crack growth rate after initiation has been updated to reflect the findings observed in the recent Westinghouse test data and the recent in-reactor measurement data to be published by EdF 116] (see Figure 4-2),

5. All models have been independently reviewed by APTECH Engineering (Begley and Woodman)[25]. and an improved model was developed for the effect of monotonic yield strength on time to initiation, and

6. A wide range (both high and low values) of calculated probabilities are consistent with actual plant observations as discussed below.

The most important parameter for estimating the failure probability is the time to failure, ti in hours. It is defined as follows:

to=6+(at - ao) / dadt ' (4-1) where:

time to initiation in hours, at = failure crack depth in inches, a - crack depth at initiation in inches and 4-1

da/dt = crack growth rate in inch/hour.

In equation (4-1), both the crack depths at failure and initiation may be specified as a fraction of-the penetration wall thickness, (w). The failure depth a, depends upon the failure mode being calculated. Since the failure mode of concern is axial cracks in the penetration that are deeper than the structural limit of 75% of the penetration wall thickness (w), it would be specified as:

a, = 0.75 w (4-2)

The time to PWSCC crack initiation, t1 in hours, consistent with the previous equation 3.1 by RAO 110] and is defined by:

t, = ++C 2PGBC) exp(9+/-) (4-3)

C, = a log-normal distribution on the initiation coefficient, which was based upon the data of Hall and others [261 for forged Alloy 600 pressurizer nozzles, with only the uncertainty based upon the data of Gold and others [27),

C2 = coefficient for the effect of grain boundary carbide coverage, which is based upon the data of Norring and others [22].

= the maximum residual and operating stress level derived from the detailed elastic-plastic finite-element analysis from the WOG study of Ball and others 1281 as shown in Figure 4-1, with its normally distributed uncertainty being derived from the variation in ovality from Duran and others [29] (see Figure 4-3), which is a trigonometric function of the penetration diameter and setup angle (local angle between the head and longitudinal axis of penetration).

SY = yield strength of the penetration material.

nn 2 = exponents on stress and yield strength, respectively (nt = 4, nZ = 2.5)

Q. = the activation energy for crack initiation, which is normally distributed, R= universal gas constant, and T= the penetration absolute temperature, which is uniformly distributed based upon the calculated variation of the nominal head operating temperature.

Equation 4-3 is equivalent to the initiation equation by Rao [103 as listed in Section 3.2, where GIA = C1 + (1 + C2 PGCa)/IS.

4-2

Either data from field replication [30] or the correlation model by RAO [31] can be used to determine the percent grain boundary carbide coverage, PGDC in equation (4-3). The model [31]

is a statistical correlation of measured values with the following materials certification parameters:

- Carbon content,

- Nickel content,

- Manganese content,

- Ultimate tensile strength and

- Yield strength.

The uncertainty on this model, which is as shown in Figure 4-4, applies equally well to both the predicted and measured values.

The hours at temperature per operating cycle (year), which is normally distributed, is used to check if crack initiation has occurred. Once the crack has initiated, it is assumed to have a depth of ao and its growth rate, daldt, is calculated by the Peter Scott model, which matches the latest Westinghouse and EdF data and the previous data given in the WOG report on the industry Alloy 600 PWSCC growth rate testing results 132], as discussed in Section 2. The crack growth model is:

da -C0 KTH')1.16exp(Q2(

ex T (4-4)

C3= a log-normally distributed crack growth rate coefficient (see Figure 4-2),

K, = the stress Intensity factor conservatively calculated assuming a constant stress through the penetration wall for an axial flaw at the inside surface with a length 6 times its depth using the following form of the Raju and Newman equations [33]:

K, = 0.982 + 1.006 (a IW) 2 s(,r a) 0.5 (4-5)

Q2= activation energy for PWSCC crack growth, which is also normally distributed, and KTH = threshold stress intensity factor for crack growth The probability of failure of the Alloy 600 vessel head penetration as a function of operating time t, Pr(t < tQ), is calculated directly for each set of input values using Monte-Carlo simulation.

Monte Carlo simulation is an analytical method that provides a histogram of failures with time in a given number of trials (simulated life tests). The area under the simulated histogram increases with time due to PWSCC. The ratio of this area to the total number of trials is approximately equal to the probability of failure at any given time. In each trial, the values of the specified set of random variables is selected according to the specified distribution. A mechanistic analysis is performed using these values to calculate if the penetration will fail at any time during its lifetime (e.g. 60 years). This process is repeated many times (e.g. 6000) until a sufficient number of failures is achieved (e.g. 10 per year) to define a meaningful 4-3

histogram, which is an approximation of the lower tail of the true statistical distribution in time to failure (see Figure 4-5). The shape of the distribution depends upon the input median values and specified distributions of the random variables. It is not forced to be an assumed type of distribution (e.g. Weibull) as is done for other non-mechanistic probabilistic methods. For the worst penetration in one plant, the mean time to failure was greater than 160 years but its uncertainty was so large that the normalized area under the histogram (estimated probability) at 60 years was 8 percent.

To apply the Monte Carlo simulation method for vessel head penetration nozzle (VHPN) failure, the existing PROF (probability of failure) object library in the Westinghouse Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) software system was combined with the PWSCC structural reliability-rmodels described previously. This system provides standard input and output, including plotting, and probabilistic analysis capabilities (e.g. random number generation.

importance sampling). The result was program VHPNPROF for calculation of head penetration failure probability with time.

As reported previously [341, the Westinghouse SRRA Software System has been verified by hand calculation for simple models and alternative methods for more complex models.

Recently the application of this same Westinghouse SRRA methodology to the WOG sponsored pilot program for piping risk based inspection has been extensively reviewed and verified by the ASME Research Task Force on RBI Guidelines [351 and other independent NRC contractors. Table 4-1 provides a summary of the wide range of parameters that were considered in this comprehensive benchmarking study that compared the Westinghouse calculated probabilities from Ihe analysis (labeled SRRA) with those from the pc-PRAISE program [36]. As shown in Figure 4-6, the comparison of calculated probabilities after 40 years of operation is excellent for both small and large leaks and full breaks, including those reduced due to taking credit for leak detection.

In addition, the VHPNPROF Program calculated probabilities of getting a given crack depth due to PWSCC were compared for four plants where sufficient head penetration information and inspection results were available. The four plants are identified in Table 4-2 along with the values of the key input parameters and calculated failure probabilities. Table 4-2 also shows the agreement between the latest available inspection results and VHPNPROF predicted failure trends due to PWSCC.

4-4

TABLE 4-1 PARAMETERS USED FOR THE pC PRAISE BENCHMARKING STUDY Type of Parameter Low Value High Value Pipe Material Fenitic Stainless Steel Pipe Geometry 6.625" O.D. 29.0" O.D.

0.562 Wall 2.5" Wall Failure Modes Small Leak, Full Break, Through-Wal Crack Unstable Fracture Last Pass Weld Inspection No X-Ray Radiographic Pressure Loading 1000 psi 2235 psi Low-Cycle 25 ksi Range 50 ksi Range Loading 10 cycles/year 20 cycleslyear High-Cycle' I ksi Range 20 ksi Range Loading 0.1 cycles/min. 1.0 cycles/sec.

Design Limiting Stress 15 ksi 30 ksi Disabling Leak Rate 50 gpm 500 gpm Detectable Leak Rate None 3 gpm Note: Mechanical Vibration (low value of stress range and high value of frequency) for small pipe, Thermal Fatigue (high value of stress range and low value of frequency) for large pipe.

4-5

TABLE 4-2 COMPARISON OF VHPNPROF CALCULATED PROBABILITIES WITH PLANT OBSERVATIONS Parameters Almaraz 1 0. C. Cook 2 RInghals 2 North Anna I Hours of Operation 85,400 87,000 108,400 91,000 Setup Angle (') 42.6 50.5 38.6 _

Temperature ('F) 604.3 598.5 605.6 600.0 Yield Strength (ksl) 37.5 58 51.2 51.2 Percent GBC 57.0 44.3 3.0 2.0 Flaw Depth/Wall 0.10 0.43 0.25 0.10 Initiation Probability 1.1% 41.4% 37.6% 15.3%

Failure Probability" 1.1% 38.1% 34.6% 15.3%

Penetrations 0 1 3 0 With Reported Indications (2 with scratches) from ISI Calculations performed at an equivalent setup angle for the 2nd highest stress location that could be Inspected.

Defined here as the probability of reaching the specified (law depth for the Individual penetration.

I 4-6

100

-Y (I)

L 4 J (n

0.

-a Q1 (I) 0L-0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.01i 0.10 Penet rat in Ol Ivaui ty ( I nch )

Figure 4-1 Vessel Head Penetration Stresses from WOG 4-Loop Plant Study [28]

4-7

10 -"-

ASH::

T--

---7

.1 ..

I II I _,6- q , I-.- I I I *W"b

.-.-I-1.., .111 I

-s.

-5 0.1 f i t..+/-i 0.01

-. ~~oWestinqhousel.b%

b..:~..2;1::i::: :t~j: - -- L; 0.001 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Ki (Mpa m°In)

Figure 4-2 Comparison of Recent Alloy 600 Data with the Crack Growth Rate Model 4-8

0.12 0.10 _ Jp..

xoFess m _.____I 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02

0.00

-0.02 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Weld Offset (inch)

Figure 4-3 Measured Vessel Head Penetration Ovality Data and Regression Results [29]

4.9

Pl.ot air -LI 4* Oota "M.6 fn Ur$, Ys, mew!H)S-.7) 75'I 55I 9

11 a

a

'S IG

-5

-6 Z5 35 SS 7; 96 Figure 4-4 Curve Fit of Alloy 600 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage Results [31]

4-10

Il I

I I i

.. i I

.S *-4 -Mean Time I

To Failure 1 I 2v I

2 I

of Fallure Time a

I II I

0 20 40 60 8o 100 120 140 160 180 , 200 Time In Years Figure 4-5 Histogram of Failures from Monte-Carlo Simulation 4.11

0.1 0.001 1E-05 1E-07 CDl 1E-09 1E-11 ::

IE-11 1E.09 1E-07 1E-05 0.001 0.1 PRAISE Probability Perfect Small Large Full Fit Leak Leak Break 0 0 Figure 4-6 Comparison of Calculated Piping Probabilities 4-12

5.0 INPUT AND RESULTS OF PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS The Donald C. Cook Units I and 2 reactor vessels and closure heads were manufactured for Westinghouse by Combustion Engineering for Unit 1 and Chicago Bridge and Iron for Unit 2.

The closure head contains 79 head penetrations for Unit 1and 78 penetrations for Unit 2 fabricated from Alloy 600 tube which are welded to a stainless steel flange. This assembly is then welded to the low alloy steel closure head utilizing a J-groove weld. These penetrations are utilized for a number of purposes. These purposes are typically for Control Rod Drive Mechanisms (CRDM), capped latch housings (CLH), part length mechanisms (PIL),

thermocouple column locations (TCC), and spare penetrations. In addition to the standard head penetrations, the head also contains a vent pipe typically fabricated from Alloy 600 which is a different geometry and is not addressed in this report.

A review of the fabrication records indicates that the closure head penetrations were fabricated from 5 different heats for Unit I and 7 different heats for Unit 2 of Alloy 600 material. Table 5-1 provides a summary of the material heats. These heats of material were supplied by Huntington for Unit 1 and Westinghouse for Unit 2.

For plants which have operated at more than one temperature, the evaluation was somewhat more complicated, as described below. Analyses were run for each of the temperatures of operation, and the results were combined. Let us consider as an example a plant which has operated at three temperatures, T., T2 and T3 , for the following times:

Time at temperature T. = 3 years Time at temperature T2 = 5 years Time at temperature T3 = now and for the foreseeable future Having completed analyses for each of the three temperatures, we now have the probability of failure (0.75 T flaw) as a function of time for all three temperatures. Starting with the run for T..

we find the probability of failure after 3 years, P3. Now, looking at the analysis for T2, we find a value as close to P 3 as possible. Using P3 as the starting point, we continue counting years in the T2 run, for five more years. At the end of five years, we now have a new probability of failure corresponding to eight years service = Pa. Now lo complete the analysis we look at the analysis for T3, and find a probability close to P&, which now becomes the starting point for the rest of the analysis. Looking at Appendix A, you will see the years marked off for each of the temperatures of operation.

Table 5-2 provides the input values to the probabilistic analysis and Table 5-3 provides the results of the analysis in terms of the probability of failure (%) afterl10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 years of operation. Penetrations were grouped into cases. Each case was selected because.

the failure probability with time for the penetrations in the group is the same. To calculate the combined effects for all the vessel head penetration nozzle (VHPN) failures (crack depths of 75% of the wall), a second program (VHPNECON) was run. The results of these calculations are given in the VHPNECON output file, which is shown in the first page of Appendix A. The column headings used in the output file and their meaning are described below.

CYCLE: Number of operating cycle (year) when values of the parameters below are calculated. Each cycle has 7446 hours0.0862 days 2.068 hours 0.0123 weeks 0.00283 months at temperature. For these calculations each cycle was assumed to be one year.

5-A

MAX-PROB: This is the maximum failure probability calculated by VHPNPROF for the penetration nozzle most likely to fail.

PROB-ONE: This is the probability that at least one of the head penetration nozzles will fail. It is calculated as follows:

PONE = 1-47N O1 - PY'(i where p, = failure probability for the ith group ni = number of penetrations in the ith group N = number of groups AVG-PROB: This is the average failure probability, which is the expected number of failures divided by the number of head penetration nozzles.

E(NUMFS): This is the expected value of the number of failures in all the penetrations. It is calculated as follows:

E(NF) = ZEni pi (5-2)

For a better understanding of some of these probabilistic parameters, consider the analogy of rolling a number of dice. For this analogy, failure is defined to rolling the number 6. For each six-sided die, the probability of failure is 1 in 6 or 16.7%. If six dice are-rolled (or one die six times), the expected number of failures would be 1 (6 x 116). If this is repeated many times, say 6000 rolls, 1000 failures would be expected or an average failure probability of 100016000 or 16.7%. For 60 head penetrations with an average failure probability of 1.67% (1160), one penetration would therefore be expected to have a failure. In other words, the expected number of failures is one.

Using the dice rolling analogy, consider the probability of at least one failure. The first time the die is rolled, the probability of failure (getting a 6) is 16.7%. If a 6 was not rolled the first time, then the probability of failure on the second roll should be higher than 116. Conversely, the probability of failure on the second roll would be lower than 1/6 if a failure occurred on the first roll. If there were no failures on the first 5 rolls of the dice, then the probability of failure on the sixth roll should be high (65.5% per equation 5-1) since it is expected from the law of averages to get one failure for every six rolls. For 60 head penetrations all with a failure probability of 1.67% (1/60), then the probability of the 6 0m failing given that the first 59 didn't fail would be 63.5%. In other words, there would be a 63.5% probability of at least one (or only one) failure in 60 penetrations (given 59 non-failures). This approach was used to determine the entries in Table 5-4, as a function of time. The probabilities of individual penetrations failing are given in Table -3.

Table 54 provides the results of the analysis for the probability of at least one penetration failure in the head.

The detailed input and calculated results for the head penetration nozzle probabilistic analysis are given in the VHPNPROF output print files, some of which are reproduced in Appendix A.

The first page of each file is a description of the input for each analysis, including the standard 5-2

uncertainties that were used for the probabilistic analysis. The second page of the output file lists the calculated probabilities. Here, the first column is the cycle number; the second is the probability of failure during the cycle; the third is the accumulated probability at the end 6f the cycle. The fourth and fifth columns are the same types of probability as the second and third columns respectively but for an in-service inspection (ISI) each cycle. This is of course an unrealistic assumption, but provides supplemental information on the effect of the first inservice inspection.

Figure 5-1 shows the failure probability with time for each of the penetrations in the group most likely to fail, and the average failure probability with time for all penetration nozzles on the vessel head. Also shown in Figure 5-1 is the probabiiy of at least one failed penetration in all the vessel head penetrations. For reference{ Ja the calculated failure (75% wall depth) probability in the worst penetration in D.C. Cook Unit 2 when a crack depth of 43% of the wall thickness was found after 87,000 hours0 days 0 hours 0 weeks 0 months of operation. The corresponding average failure probability is[ ] and the probability of at least one failure is[ Jor all 78 penetration nozzles in D.C. Cook 2.

5-3

TABLE 5-1 D. C. COOK UNIT I HEAD PENETRATION ALLOY 600 HEAT NUMBERS Row Penetration No. Heat Number Material Supplier 0 1 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 2 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 3 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 4 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 5 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 2 6 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 7 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 8 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 9 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 3 10 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 11 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 12 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 13 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 4 14 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 15 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 16 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 17 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 18 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 19 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 20 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 21 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 5 22 NX8251 HUNTINGTON 23 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 24 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 25 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 6 26 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 27 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 28 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 29 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 7 30 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 31 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 32 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 33 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 34 NX7280 HUNTINGTON.

35 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 36 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 37 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 54 I

TABLE 5-1 (Continued)

D. C. COOK UNIT I Row Penetration No. Heat Number Material Supplier 8 38 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 39 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 40 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 41 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 42 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 43 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 44 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 45 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 9 46 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 47 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 48 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 49 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 10 50 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 51 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 52 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 53 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 54 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 55 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 56 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 57 NX7926 HUNTINGTON 58 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 59 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 60 NX8251 HUNTINGTON 61 NX7280 HUNTINGTON 12 62 NX7760 HUNTINGTON 63 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 64 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 65 NX8069 HUNTINGTON' 66 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 67 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 68 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 69 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 13 70 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 71 NX8069 HUNI INGTON 72 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 73 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 14 74 NX8069 HUNTINGTON H

75 NX8069 I HUNTINGTON 5-5

0 TABLE 5-1 (Continued)

D. C. COOK UNIT I Row Penetration No. Heat Number Material Supplier 76 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 77 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 78 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 79 NX8069 HUNTINGTON 5-6

TABLE 5-1 D. C. COOK UNIT 2 HEAD PENETRATION ALLOY 600 HEAT NUMBERS Row Penetration No. Heat Number Material Supplier 0 1 NX0223-23 WESTINGHOUSE 2 NX0230-34 WESTINGHOUSE 3 NX0230-34 WESTINGHOUSE 4 NX0230-35 WESTINGHOUSE 5 NX0230-35 WESTINGHOUSE 2 6 NX0219-9 WESTINGHOUSE 7 NX0216-2 WESTINGHOUSE 8 NX0230-35 WESTINGHOUSE 9 NX0233-52 WESTINGHOUSE 3 10 NX0216-1 WESTINGHOUSE 11 NX0216-6 WESTINGHOUSE 12 NX0216-7 WESTINGHOUSE 13 NX0230-36 WESTINGHOUSE 4 14 NX0218-15 WESTINGHOUSE 15 NX0233-49A WESTINGHOUSE 16 NX0218-17 WESTINGHOUSE 17 NX021S-24 WESTINGHOUSE 5 18 NX0233-44 WESTINGHOUSE 19 NX0233-45 WESTINGHOUSE 20 NX023346 WESTINGHOUSE 21 NX023347 WESTINGHOUSE 6 22 NX0218-15 WESTINGHOUSE 23 NX0216-3 WESTINGHOUSE 24 NX0216-4 WESTINGHOUSE 25 NX0215-27 WESTINGHOUSE 26 NX0215-27 WESTINGHOUSE 27 NX0230-37 WESTINGHOUSE 28 NX0230-38 WESTINGHOUSE 29 NX0233-48 WESTINGHOUSE 7 30 NX023346 WESTINGHOUSE 31 NX0218-16 WESTINGHOUSE 32 NX0215-24 WESTINGHOUSE 33 NX0218-17 WESTINGHOUSE 34 NX0233-44 WESTINGHOUSE 35 NX0233-45 WESTINGHOUSE 36 NX0233-46 WESTINGHOUSE 37 NX023347 WESTINGHOUSE 5-7

TABLE 5-1 (Continued)

D. C. COOK UNIT 2 Row Penetration No. Heat Number Material Supplier 8 38 NX0216-1 WESTINGHOUSE 39 NX0216-6 WESTINGHOUSE 40 NX0216-7 WESTINGHOUSE 41 NX0216-7 WESTINGHOUSE 9 42 NX0216-2 WESTINGHOUSE 43 NX0230-38 WESTINGHOUSE 44 NX0216-4 WESTINGHOUSE 45 NX0230-32 WESTINGHOUSE 46 NX0230-37 WESTINGHOUSE 47 NX0230-38 WESTINGHOUSE 48 NX0230-40 WESTINGHOUSE 49 NX0233-52 WESTINGHOUSE 10 50 NX0218-13 WESTINGHOUSE 51 NX0218-17 WESTINGHOUSE 52 NX0219-12 WESTINGHOUSE 53 NX0230-32 WESTINGHOUSE 11 54 NX0219-10 WESTINGHOUSE 55 NX0219-10 WESTINGHOUSE 56 NX0216-2 WESTINGHOUSE 57 NX0219-11 WESTINGHOUSE 58 NX0233-56 WESTINGHOUSE 59 NX0219-12 WESTINGHOUSE 60 NX0233-52 WESTINGHOUSE 61 NX0218-57 WESTINGHOUSE 12 62 NX0223-21 WESTINGHOUSE 63 NX0230-59 WESTINGHOUSE 6.4 NX0215-24 WESTINGHOUSE 65 NX0230-59 WESTINGHOUSE 13 66 NX0223-21 WESTINGHOUSE 67 NX0223-23 WESTINGHOUSE 68 NX0223-23 WESTINGHOUSE 69 NX0230-37 WESTINGHOUSE 70 NX0230-35 WESTINGHOUSE 71 NX0230-34 WESTINGHOUSE 72 NX0218-16 WESTINGHOUSE 73 NX023040 WESTINGHOUSE 14 74 NX0215-27 WESTINGHOUSE 75 i NX0233-44 I WESTINGHOUSE 5-8

TABLE 5-1 (Continued)

D. C. COOK UNIT 2 Row Penetration No. Heat Number Material Supplier 76 NX0216-3 WESTINGHOUSE 77 NX0216-4 WESTINGHOUSE 78 NX0216-6 WESTINGHOUSE CB&I drawing 68-3262-R14, Revision 6 was used as the basis for determining which Alloy 600 heat of material applies to each penetration number. However, during the evaluation, it was noted that there were several inconsistencies between the drawing and the material certifications relative to the heat and slab numbers of the Alloy 600 materials. The penetration numbers which had inconsistencies are penetrations 16, 23, 66, and 76. The shipping documentation was reviewed and this documentation provided the resolution of these inconsistencies. These inconsistencies and the resolution are described below.

1. Penetration 16 - Drawing 68-3262-R14 indicates the heat of material and slab number for this penetration is NX0216-17. A review of the CMTR for heat NX0216 shows that there is not a slab 17 associated with this heat of material. The shipping documentation indicates that the heat of material associated with this penetration number is NX0218-17.

Therefore, NX0218-17 is used in the analysis.

2. Penetration 23 - Drawing 68-3262-R14 indicates the heat of material for this penetration is NX0216 without a slab number. The shipping documentation indicates that the heat of material associated with this penetration number is NX0216-3. Therefore, NX0216-3 is used in the analysis.

3. Penetration 66 - Drawing 66-3262-R14 indicates the heat of material and slab number for this penetration is NX0233-21. A review of the CMTR for heat NX0233 shows that there is not a slab 21 associated with this heat of material. The shipping documentation indicates that the heat of material associated with this penetration number is NX0223-21.

Therefore. NX022321 is used in the analysis.

4. Penetration 76 - Drawing 68-3262-R14 indicates the heat of material for this penetration is NX0216 without a slab number. The shipping documentation indicates that the heat of material associated with this penetration number is NX021-3. :Therefore, NX0216-3 is used in the analysis.

The CMTRs for heat number NX0233 reports two different values for the Yield and Ultimate strength. These different values are associated with the different slabs of the material. The CB&I drawing 68-3262-R14 documentation indicates that the yield strength for penetration 75 should be the lower value (44 ksi); however, other inconsistencies, as described above, have been observed in the documentation. An evaluation was therefore performed to identify which value of the yield strength should be used in the probabilistic analysis and the results are presented below.

5-9

1. Using the current probabilistic model, the probability of cracking calculated using a 44 ksi yield strength would only be two-thirds that for North Anna where no cracking was detected. Also, for a 44 ksi yield strength, the probability in cracked'penetration 75 is less than one-third the calculated probability in 3 outer row penetrations (76, 77, & 78) that did not crack.

2. Using a 58 ksi yield strength the calculated probability is comparable to that for Ringhals Unit 2 where cracking was observed. Also, for a 58 ksi yield strength, the calculated probability (-113) in cracked penetration 75 is approximately the same as that for the three other outer row penetrations (76, 77, & 78) that did not crack.

Considering the above observations, a yield strength value of 58 ksi was used in the probabilistic analysis for penetration 75.

5-10

TABLE 5-2 D. C. COOK UNIT I INPUT VALUES FOR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS Case Pen. No. Temp!') Set-up Y.S. (ksi) GBC Angle (°)

1 74 thru 79 591.5DF 48.8 58.5 61.5 2 70 thru 73 for 96,800 hrs 44.3 58.5 61.5 3 63 thru 69 38.6 58.5 61.5 0

4 62 575.0 F 38.6 38.0 36.2 5 60 for 22,300 hrs 36.3 35.0 482 6 58,59. 61 36.3 40.5 42.1 7 53 thru 57 578.0F 35.1 35.5 62.3 8 50 thru 52 thereafter 35.1 40.5 42.1 9 46 thru 49 34.0 35.5 62.3 10 38 1hru 40 30.2 58.5 61.5 11 411hru 45 30.2 35.5 62.3 12 301hru 37 26.2 40.5 42.1 13 26 thru 29 24.8 40.5 42.1 14 22 23.3 35.0 48.2 15 23 thru 25 23.3 40.5 42.1 16 15 thru 21 18.2 58.5 61.5 17 14 18.2 40.5 42.1 18 12 16.2 58.5 61.5 19 10.11.13 16.2 40.5 42.1 20 6 thni 9 11.4 40.5 42.1 21* 2 thru 5 .8.0 40.5 42.1 (1) Mean upper head temperature based on Westinghouse calculations (2) Grain boundary carbide coverage

' This case also used to bound penetration I 5-11

TABLE 5-2 D. C. COOK UNIT 2 INPUT VALUES FOR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS Case Pen. No. Temp ) Set-up Y.S. (ksi) GBC AngIe (9) (%)2 1 75 595.5OF 50.6 58.0 44.3 2 76 thru 78 for 29.800 50.6 57.0 39.9 3 74 50.6 51.0 40.1 0 47.0 58.0 45.6 4 69 thru 71, 73 600.7 F 5 66 thru 68 thereafter 47.0 63.0 54.1 6 72 47.0 51.0 56.1 7 63.65 45.8 56.0 47.7 8 62 45.8 63.0 54.1 9 64 45.8 51.0 40.1 10 58 39.9 58.0 44.3 11 60 39.9 44.0 30.3 12 54,55,57.59 39.9 41.0 30.6 13 61 39.9 51.0 56.1 14 56 39.9 57.0 39.9 15 53 37.5 58.0 45.6 16 52 37.5 41.0 30.6 17 50. 51 37.5 51.0 56.1 18 49 36.3 44.0 30.3 19 43,45thru48 36.3 58.0 45.6 20 42,44 36.3 57.0 39.9 21 38 thru 41 35.0 57.0 39.9 22 30, 34 thru 37 31.1 44.0 30.3 23 31,33 31.1 51.0 56.1 24 32 31.1 51.0 40.1 25 29 27.0 44.0 30.3 26 27,28 27.0 58.0 45.6 27 22 27.0 51.0 56.1 28 23,24 27.0 57.0 39.9 29 25.26 27.0 51.0 40.1 30 18 thru 21 25.5 44.0 30.3 31 1-5 23.9 44.0 30.3 32 14.16 23.9 51.0 56.1 33 17 23.9 51.0 40.1 L L I I &

5-12

TABLE 5-2 (Continued)

D. C. COOK UNIT 2 INPUT VALUES FOR PROBABIUSTIC ANALYSIS Case Pen. No. Temp!'" Set-up Y.S. (ks) GBC Angle (Zo) 34 13 18.7- 58.0. 45.6 35 10 thru 12 18.7 57.0 39.9 36 9 16.7 44.0 30.3 37- 8 16.7 58.0 45.6 38 6 16.7 41.0 30.6 39 7 16.7 57.0 39.9 40 2 thru 5 11.7 58.0 45.6 41 1 0 63.0 54.1 (1) Mean upper head temperature based on Westinghouse calculations (2) Grain boundary carbide coverage 5-13

TABLE 5-3 D. C. COOK UNIT 1 RESULTS OF PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS FOR INDIVIDUAL PENETRATIONS (PROBABILITY OF FLAW WITH DEPTH = 0.751T, IN PERCENT)

Case Pen. No. 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years 40 Years 50 Years 60 Years 1 74 thru 79 7.0 21.8 35.7 47.3 56.9 >58.0 2 70 thru 73 2.4 12.7 21.6 32.2 40.6 >42.0 3 63 thru 69 1.0 4.2 9.6 16.8 23.0 >24.0 4 62 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.2 >4.4 5 60 -0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 >1.0 6 58, 59. 61 -0 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 >3.6 7 53 thru 57 -0 -0 0.1 02 0.5 >0.5 8 50 thru 52 -0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 >2.9 9 46 thru 49 -0 -0 0.1 0.2 0.3 >0.4 10 38 thru 40 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.7 7.9 >8.0 11 41 thru45 -0 -0 -O 0.1 0.2 >0.2 12 30 thru 37 -0 -0 0.1 0.2 0.5 >0.5 13 26 thru 29 -0 -0 0.1 0.2 0.4 >0.4 14 22 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 >0 15 23 thru 25 -0 -0 -0 0.1 0.2 >0.2 16 15 thru 21 -0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 >1.0 17 14 -0 -0 -0 -0 0.1 >0.1 18 12 -0 -0 0.1 0.3 0.8 >0.8 19 10,11.13 -O -0 -O -O -0 0 20 6 thru 9 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 >0 21 2 thru 5 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 >0 5-14

TABLE 5-3 D. C. COOK UNIT 2 RESULTS OF PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS FOR INDMDUAL PENETRATIONS (PROBABILITY OF FLAW WITH DEPTH = 0.75T, IN PERCENT)

Case Pen. No. 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years 40 Years 50 Years 60 Years 1 75 31.2 67.2 87.6 93.8 96.1 97.9 2 76 thru 78 31.5 67.5 87.8 93.6 96.1 97.9 3 74 20.2 53.0 76.2 88.1 93.2 952 69 thru 71, 18.0 51.8 74.4 87.0 92.6 94.8 73 5 66 thnu 68 22.8 57.7 78.8 90.9 94.1 962 6 72 72 32.4 52.1 66.7 78.7 86.8 7 63.65 13.0 42.5 62.9 78.1 87.6 92.7 8 62 19.4 52.9 75.4 87.5 93.0 94.8 9 64 9.4 35.1 55.8 71.6 82.1 89.3 10 58 5.8 28.6 47.9 63.2 75.5 83.6 11 60 1.6 12.2 25.4 38.3 49.3 58.7 12 54.55,57,59 1.1 8.3 19.3 30.5 41.4 49.6 13 61 1.6 14.3 28.7 41.9 53.0 62.6 14 56 6.2 28.7 48.0 63.3 75.9 84.0 15 53 3.7 22.0 40.0 53.7 66.3 762 16 52 0.8 5.2 14.8 24.9 34.9 43.0 17 50,51 1.2 9.3 21.4 34.1 44.7 532 18 49 0.9 6.8 17.3 28.4 37.9 47.3 19 43.45 thru 2.5 19.7 35.8 50.5 62.3 71.6 48 20 42.44 2.6 20.3 36.5 50.9 63.4 73.3 21 38 thru 41 2.1 17.2 34.0 47.5 58.3 67.6 22 30,34 thru 0.2 2.3 8.3 16.8 24.7 32.0 37 23 31.33 0.2 2.9 9.3 18.8 27.0 35.1 24 32 0.7 5.3 14.3 24.5 34.7 43.4 25 29 0.1 1.3 4.3 8.8 15.9 21.9 26 27,28 0.8 5.3 14.3 24.4 34.6 43.1 27 22 0.1 1A 5.0 10.3 18.0 24.1 28 23.24 0.7 5.7 14.8 25.2 35.4 44.1 29 25.26 02 2.2 7.7 16.2 24.0 31.3 30 18 thru 21 0.1 0.9 3.3 7.5 13.1 19.0 5-15

TABLE 5-3 (Continued)

D. C. COOK UNIT 2 RESULTS OF PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS FOR INDIVIDUAL PENETRATIONS (PROBABILITY OF FLAW WITH DEPTH = 0.75T, IN PERCENT)

Case Pen. No. 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years 40 Years 50 Years 60 Years 31 15 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.0 10.1 15.7 32 14, 16 0.1 0.8 3.0 6.8 11.6 17.7 33 17 0.1 1.3 4.9 10.0 17.2 23.5 34 13 0.1 1.1 4.2 8.6 14.6 21.4 35 10 thru 12 0.1 1.2 4.4 9.0 15.7 21.8 36 9 -0 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.7 5.9 37 8 0.1 0.8 2.9 6.8 1tA 17.2 38 6 -O 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.7 39 7 0.1 0.9 3.3 7.1 12.1 18.3 40 2 thm 5 -0 0.2 1. 3.1 5.7 8.9 41 1 -0 -0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 5-16

TABLE 5-4 D. C. COOK UNIT I PROBABILITY (%) OF A FLAW WITH DEPTH = 0.75T IN AT LEAST ONE PENETRATION (74500 hrs.) (149,000 hrs.) (223,500 hrs.) (298,000 hrs.) (372,500 hrs.) (447,000 hrs.)

45.5 90.7 98.9 99.9 100.0 100.0 TABLE 54 D. C. COOK UNIT 2 PROBABILITY (%) OF A FLAW WITH DEPTH = 0.75T IN AT LEAST ONE PENETRATION 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years 40 Years 50 Years 60 Years (74500 hrs.) (149,000 hrs.) (223,500 hrs.) (298,000 hrs.) (372,500 hrs.) (447,000 hrs.)

99.0 100.0 100.D 100.0 100.0 100.0 5-17

l.

0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001 1 us we w w we w w us ew v 4 Q g w z Hours l-- Maximum PsnolaUon Ono Failure -ta-Averago Figure 5-1 Failure Probability vs. Time: D. C. Cook Unit 1 5-18 B

1. - -

Q.QOO AiI I I I I I I I , I I I I i , r---'---------'

0.001 ..... .......... X........ ............... ..... ...... . ................. ....... .............

0.0001 ................................................................ ..... ..........

w wweE !! LIs E w ! w l Hours j--MaxImum PenetraUon -S-OneFaliure -e-Average Figure 5.2 Failure Probability vs. Time: D. C. Cook Unit 2 5-19 l

6.0

SUMMARY

A detailed evaluation of the reactor vessel closure head penetrations has been completed for the Donald C. Cook Units 1 and 2 plants. One of the two degradation mechanisms covered by Generic Letter 97-01 has been addressed: Primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC).

Stress corrosion cracking due to resin intrusions is covered separately.

An.in-depth probabilistic assessment has been completed for all of the reactor vessel closure head penetrations. These methods have been verified by comparison with actual inspection results, as shown in Table 4-2, and discussed in Section 4.

The results of the assessment show that the mean time to failure (defined as crack depth =

75Y of wall thickness) for the worst penetration is[ :jyears for Unit 1. For Unit 2 this value is

[j years. This corresponds to the year at which there isa 50 percent probability of failure for the worst penetration, which is another way of looking at the results.

The probability of a flaw initiating and reaching 75% of the wall thickness in 40 years was calculated for each case analyzed, and appears in Table 5-3. For 60 years, the probability increases, as shown in Figure 5-1 and Table 5-3. The probability of at least one penetration in the entire head cracking to this depth is given in Table 5A4.

6-1

7.0 REFERENCES

[11 WCAP-13565, Rev. 1, 'Alloy 600 Reactor Vessel Adapter Tube Cracking Safety Evaluation,- February 1993 (Proprietary).

[23 F.- Heddin and P.Gasquet, OAlloy 600 Reactor Vessel Head Penetration Cracking: An Industrial Challenge," 12t SMIRT Post Conference, August 23-25. 1993, Paris, France.

[3] Rao, G.V., and Wright, D.A., 'Evaluation and Resolution of the Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC) Incidents of Alloy 600 Primary System Pressure Boundary Penetrations in Pressurized Water Reactors,' Proceedings of Fontevraud II Symposium on 'Contribution of Materials Investigation to the Resolution of Problems Encountered in PWR Plants,' Royal Abbey of Fontevraud, France, September 10-14, 1990.

(41 A. S. O'Neill and J. F. Hall, Combustion Engineering, 'Literature Survey of Cracking of Alloy 600 Components in PWR Plants,' Report prepared for EPRI, January 1990.

[53 U.S. NRC Information Notice No. 90-10, 'Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC) of Inconel 600, February 23, 1990.

[6) NRC letter from William T. Russell to William Rasin of NUMARC (now NEI),

November 19, 1993.

(7] Pichon, C, Boudot, R., Benhamour, C., and Gelpi, A., Residual Life Assessment of French PWR Vessel Head Penetrations through Metallurgical AnalysisService Experience and Reliability Improvement: Nuclear, Fossil, and Petrochemical Plants, PVP Vol. 288, ASME, 1994.

18] Lagerstrom, J., Wilson, B., Person, B., Bamford, W.H., and Bevilacqua, B, 'Experiences with Detection and Disposition of Indications in Head Penetralions of Swedish Plants,

'Services Experience and Reliability Improverent: Nuclear. Fossil.-and Petrochemical Plants, PVP Vol.288, ASME, 1994, pages 29 to 40.

[9] Bamford, W. H., Fyfitch, S., Cyboron. R. D., Ammirato, F., Schreim, M., and Pathania.

R., 'An Integrated Industry Approach to the Issue of Head Penetration Cracking for the USA,: Services Experience and Reliability Improvement: Nuclear. Fossil, and Petrochemical Plants, PVP-Vol 288, ASME, 1994, pages 11 to 19.

[10] Rao. G.V., OMethodologies to Assess PWSCC Susceptibility of Primary Alloy 600 Components in PWRs,' Proceedings, Sixth Intemational Conference on Environmental Degradation of Materials in Nudear Power Systems, NACE, August 1993.

[1 11] Scott, P. M., "An Analysis of Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking in PWR Steam Generators." in Proceedings, Specialists Meeting on Operating Experience With Steam Generators, Brussels Belgium, September 1991, pages 5, 6.

7-1

(121 Mc liree, A. R., Rebak, R. B., Smialowska, S.. 'Relationship of Stress Intensity to Crack Growth.Rate of Alloy 600 in Primary Water," Proceedings International Symposium Fontevraud 11, Volume 1, p. 258-267, September 10-14, 1990.

113] Cassagne, T., Gelpi, A., 'Measurements of Crack Propagation Rates on Alloy 600 Tubes in PWR Primary Water," in Proceeding of the 5th International Symposium on Environmental Degradation of Materials in Nuclear Power Systems-Water Reactors,*

August 25-29. 1991, Monterey, California.

[14) Personal Communication, Brian Woodman. Combustion Engineering, October 1993.

[151 Hunt, S. L and Gorman, J., 'Crack Predictions and Acceptance Criteria for Alloy 600 Head Penetrations" in Proceedings of the 1992 EPRI Workshop on PWSCC of Alloy 600 in PWRs, December 1-3. 1992, Orlando Fl (published in 1993).

[161 Personal communication - C. Arnzallag to W. Bamford, Feb. 26, 1997.

[17) G.Economy, F. W. Pement, Corrosion/89 Paper 493.

118) H. Tass et. Al., 'Relation Between Microstructural Features and Tube Cracking Observed on Tube Samples of Doet 2 Steam Generator.' EPRI Steam Generator Owners Group. SCC Contractors Workshop San Diego, CA, March 1985.

[19] A. A. Stein, 'Development of Microstructural Correlation and a Tubing Specification for Alloy 600.' Paper presented at EPRI Steam Generator Owner Group SCC Contractors Workshop, San Diego, CA, March 1985.

[201 A. R. McIlree, 'Results of Reannealing Studies of Trojan, Doel 2, Ringhals 2 and 3, Ginna and Indian Point 3 Steam Generator Tubing' Paper as in Ref. I8.

(211 G. P. Airey, 'Optimization of Metallurgical Variables to Improve Corrosion Resistance of Inconel Alloy 600." Palo Alto, CA, Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI NP 3051, July 1983.

122) "lntergranular Stress Corrosion Cracking in Steam Generator Tubing, Testing of Alloy 690 and Alloy 600 Tubes," Norring, Engstrom and Norberg, in Third International Symposium on Environmental Degradation of Materials in Nuclear PowerSystems -

Water Reactors- Proceedings,The Metallurgical Society, 1988

[23) Z. Szklarska-Smialowska, 'Factors Influencing IGSCC of Alloy 600 in Primary and Secondary Waters of PWR Steam Generators' Proceedings of the Shntemational Symposium on 'Environmental Degradation of Materials in Nuclear Power Systems' Water Reactors.* Nace Meeting. Edited by D. Cubicciotti, August 1989, p. 6-1.

[241 R. Bandy and D.Van Rooyen, 'Stress Corrosion Cracking of Inconel Alloy 600 in High Temperature Water - An Update' Corrosion, Vol. 40, No. 8, page 425 (1984).

7-2

125] Letter, J. A. Begley (APTECH) to B. A. Bishop, 'Review of the Westinghouse Structural Reliability, Model for PWSCC of RV Head Penetrations," June 23, 1997.

[26] "Evaluation of Leaking Alloy 600 Nozzles and Remaining Life Prediction for Similar Nozzles in PWR Primary System Application," Hall, Magee, Woodman and Melton, in Service Experience and Reliability Improvement, ASME PVP-Vol. 288, 1994

[271] The Status of Laboratory Evaluations in 400eC Steam of the Stress Corrosion of Alloy 600 Steam Generator Tubing." Gold, Fletcher and Jacko in Proceedings of 2nd International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Power Plant Thermal Hydraulics and Operations, 1986

[281 WCAP-13525, Rev. 1, RV Closure Head Penetration Alloy 600 PWSCC (Phase 2), Ball et al., December 1992 (Class 2)

[29] WCAP-1 3493, Reactor Vessel Closure Head Penetration Key Parameters Comparison, Duran, Kim and Pezze, September 1992 (Class 2)

[30] G. V. Rao, "Development of Surface Replication Technology for the Field Assessment of Alloy 600 Micro-Structures in Primary Loop Penetrations," WCAP-13746, Westinghouse Class 2 Report, June, 1993.

[311 G. V. Rao and T. R. Leax, Microstructural Correlations with Material Certification Data in Several Commercial Heals of Alloy 600 Reactor Vessel Head Penetration Materials -

WCAP-13876, Rev. 1, June 1997.

321 WCAP 13929, Rev. 2, Crack Growth and Microstnrctural Characterization of Alloy 600 Head Penetration Materials, Bamford, Foster and Rao, November 1996 (Class 2C)

[331 Newman, J.C. Jr. And Raju, [.S. 'Stress Intensity Factors for Internal Surface Cracks in Cylinddcal Pressure Vessels" Transactions ASME. Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology. Volume 102, 1980, pp. 342-346.

134] WCAP-14572, Westinghouse Owners Group Application of Risk-Based Methods to Piping Inservice Inspection Topical Report, pp E-1 to E-6, March 1996 (Class 3).

[35] Risk-Based Inspection - Development of Guidelines, Volume 1, General Document, ASME Research Task Force on Risk-Based Inspection Guidelines Report CRTD-Vol.

2D-1 (or NUREG/GR-005, Vol. 1), American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1991

[36] NUREGICR-5864, Theoretical and User's Manual for pc-PRAISE, A Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Computer Code for Piping Reliability Analysis, Harris and Dedhia, July.1992 7-3

Appendix A Output Files From VHPNPROF for Probabilistic Failure Analysis:

D. C. Cook Units I and 2 Head Penetration Nozzles A-1

WESTINGHOUSE VESSEL HEAD PDE. NOZZLE ECONOMIC DECISION ANALYSIS VHFNIECN ESDU-NSD 79 Nozzles at D.C. COOK l Plant on 07-02-97 06/06/97 CYCLE MAX- PROI I PROB-ONU AVG-PROD E(NUFS) -i 4

5 6

7 F

8

.9 10 11 501 .S b:-

12 13 14 1

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 so 51 52 53 54 I 55 56 57 58 I 59 60 X-2z

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P01 Opened at 09:05 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall .0.750 monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) - 58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 48.8 Penetration Temperature tF) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (1) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY.AND RXSK ASSESSMENr (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY O FAILuRE PROGRJU VHPSNPROF ESFU-NSD ITPUTr VARIABLES FOR CASM 1: RV Head Penetration 74 THRU 79 AEP

_~ - _

lI

Output Print Pile VHPNPROF.P02 Opened at 09:06 on 07-D1-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) - 58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 44.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 501 Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD InPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 2: RV Head Penetration 70 THRU 73 AEP I

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Output Print File VHPNPROP.P03 Opened at 10:24 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) *.58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 38.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RET ABILlTY AND RISK ASSESSKENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD UVR=LEFRCS 3RVH=e=======dP t i6==3 THRU=====6=9=

INtTU VARIABLES FOR CASE 3: RV Head Penetration 63 THRU 69 ASP_

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Output Print File VffPNPR0F.P04 Opened at 10:25 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) *.38.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 38.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 36.2 Honths in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlD of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD JNPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 4: RV Head Penetration 62 AEP

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Output Print File VRPNPROF.POS Opened at 10:26 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750

)Ioriotonic Yield Strengtb (Ksi) .35.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Crain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 48.2 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.OOD STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESsHzWT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAK VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT=VARIABLE=SSZFO3CA=SE RV Head Penetra ===to60A=

INFUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 5: RV Head Penetration 60 AEP A- u/

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P06 Opened at 10:26 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) . 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage l%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between 151 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCRU)XAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMEWU (SRRA)

WESTI2N=OUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESDU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 6: RV Head Penetration 58 59 61 AEP J

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Outprut Print File VHPNPROF.P07 Opened at 10:27 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) -35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 35.1 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STUCTrURAL BETIABILITY AM RISK ASSESSMEST (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

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INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 7: RV Head Penetration 53 THRU 57 AEP r- - ,

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P08 Opened at 20:28 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Honotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 35.1 Penetration Temperature IF) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELLABILITY AND RISK ASSESSHENT (SRRA)

WESTZIGDOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD flPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 8: RV Head Penetration 50 THRU 52 AEP

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output Print File VHPNPROF.P09 Opened at 10:29 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) '-35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 34.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 9: RV Head Penetration 46 THRO 49 AEP r- - a,;

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4,4I Output Print File VHPNPROF.P10 Opened at 10:30 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Isi) '58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 30.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 61.5 Months in.Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMXDT (SRRA)

WE.STINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILUTRE PROGRAM VHPNPROF E.SBU-NSD INPUT33VRABS FO AE VHl=ad= Pene=t=r====ui==3=====8== 4====0A ==

INPUT lAJlABLES FOR CASZ 10: RV Bead Penetration 39 llCTU 40 FUEP

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output Print File VHPNPROF.Pl1 Opened at 10:31 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Isi) *.35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 30.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Crain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 IDG20 of Years Between 1SI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RISK ASSESS2T (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIAULES FOR CASE ll: RV Head Penetration 41 THRU 45 AEP

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P12 Opened at 10:32 on 07-01-1997 TLanit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) D40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 26.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage i%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between IS! 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTIN=HMUSE PROBWBILITY OF PAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD LIT VAR=IAB=L=ESEz12E= 0 R=V=HeP======Z=S=====Rn== t-=ni 3AU INPIUJT VARIJABLES FOR CASE 12: RV Head Penetration 30 THRU 37 AEP 9- " K I

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P13 Opened at 10:33 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Modotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) *.40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 24.8 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.00D STRUCTURAL RELIABIL7TY AM RISX ASSESdSENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESmi-NSD ZRtZX3U3RtnUNfl33UU33U3U3UU INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 13: RV Head Penetration 26 THRU 29 AEP 4,*

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d,-?- a Output Print File VBPNPROF.P14 Opened at 10:33 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi)

Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 23.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 48.2 4%)

Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 2.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RTSX ASSESSHENW (SRRA)

WESTINGHMODSE - PROBABILITY OP FAILURE PROGRAM VMPNPROF ESB-NSD INPUT VAPIABLES FOR CASE 14: RV Head Penetration 22 AEP It,?

Output Print File VPNPROPF.P1S opened at 10:35 on 07-01-1997 Liait Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Rsi) -40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 23.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (S) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSWSS M (sRRA)

WESSINGHOUSZ PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAHI VBPNPRO ESBU-NSD INTU VARIABLes FOR CASS 15: RV Head Penetration 23 THRU 25 AEP

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P16 Opened at 10:36 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) - 58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 18.2 Penetration Temperature (P) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 61.5 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 L4G10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENTr (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAMl VHPNPROF ESMU-NMD INiUT VARIABLES FOR CASZ 16: RV Head Penetration 15 THRU 21 AZP

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P17 Opened at 10:37 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Moniotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 18.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (1) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANM RISX ASSESSMENW (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD VARIABLES FOR CASS 17: RV Head Penetration 14 AZa

X-15 Output Print File VHNPPROF.PI8 Opened at 10:38 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Mohotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) . 58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0

.LOG10 of Years Betveen ISI 0.O0 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSHENM (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARlABLES FOR CASE 18: RV Head Penetration 12 AEP

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Output Print File VHPNPROP.P19 Opened at 10:38 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction-of wall 0.750 Honotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.2 Penetration Tceperature IF) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 42.1 months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between IS! 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection O.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUC2VRAL, RELIABILITY AMD RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINiGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHfPNPROF ESBU-NSD n_=Wt7 VARIABLE FOR CASE 19-3RV Read S==etrati ==S==__=3 ==3=A I~nOTr VARIABLES FOR CiASE 19: RV Head Penetration 10 1l 13 A3!P 8,b

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P20 Opened at 10:39 on 07-02-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 11.4 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress IMsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (tI 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 l1G0 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTpRAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSWZVr (SRRA)

WESTfln HOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURB PROGRAH VHPNPROP ESBU-NSD ARIABLESSFORCSE 20 VRedPnert==o6=--9=Up I~nPUT VARIABLES FOR CASB 20: RV Head Penetration 6 THRU 9 AgP4 WARNING: PROBABILITIES CALCULATED FOR LESS THAN 10 FAILURES CAN HAVE VERY HIGH URCERtAIIMES

- b-w Output Print File VHPNPROF.P21 Opened at 10:40 on 07-01-1997 LiSit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotcnic Yield Strength (Ksi) '40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 8.0 Penetration Tenperature IF) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 L4G10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOWSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 21: RV Head Penetration 2 THRU 5 AEP r 1 WXRNINS: PROBABILITIES CALCUJLTE1D FOR LESS THAN 10 TAILURES CAN HAVE VERY HIGH 0nCMTAINTIES

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P22 Opened at 10:41 on 07-01-1997 r4mit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.75D Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) - 35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 0.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 591.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 OG110 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSM= (SRRA)

WESTINMGOUSE PROBABILITY OP FAILURE PROGRAK VHPNPROP ESBU-NSD INPY) VARIABLES FOR CASE 22: RV Read Penetration 1 A2P

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WESTIMGHOUSE VESSEL HEAD PEN. NOZZLE ECONOMIC DECISION ANALYSIS VHINECON ESBU-NSD I P9 Nozzles at D.C. COOK 2 Plant on 07-02-97 06/06/97 CYCLE HU-PROD PROB-ONE AVG-PROB E (NUES) 7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 S 75 F 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 I

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P0l Opened at 12:39 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Honotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) .S58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 48.8 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-WSD

.INPF1 VARIABLES FOR CASE 1: RV Head Penetration 74 THRU 79 ARP A -w-11

Output Print File VHPMPROF.P02 Opened at 12:40 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) ' 58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 44.3 Penetration Temperature (FT 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGl1 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPU? VARIABLES FOR CASE 2: RV Bead Penetration 70 TBRU 73 AMP

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4D t Output Print File VHPNPROP.P03 Opened at 12:40 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) '58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 38.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between IS: 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection O.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 3: RV Head Penetration 63 THRU 69 AEP

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P04 Opened at 12:41 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) '38.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 38.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage ('4 36.2 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between IS 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RISK ASSESSMZNT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VTPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 4: RV Head Penetration 62 AEP

Output Print File VHPVTROF.P05 Opened at 12:42 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 35.0 Penietration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Wsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage IS) 48.2 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between ISI 0.00 wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSKN= (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNIPROF ESBU-NSD 2I4WY VARIABLES FOR CASE 5: RV Head Penetration 60 AEP

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Output Print Pile VHPNPROF.P06 Opened at 12:42 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall

0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) '40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Temperature IF) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage i%) 42.1 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSM¢N (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARLABLES FOR CASE 6: RV Head Penetration 58 59 61 AEP

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t4 55 Output Print File VHPNPROF.P07 Opened at 12:43 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall .0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 35.1 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage i%) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG20 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRVCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSHMT JSRRA)

WESTl5NCOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

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INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 7: RV Head Penetration 53 THRU 57 AWP F I

Output Print File VRPNPROF.P08 Opened at 22:44 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall *0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 35.1 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 5D% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTUIRAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTNIGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VXPHPROF ESWU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 8: RV Head Penetration 50 THRU 52 AEP A-57

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P09 Opened at 12:44 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.i50 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) -35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 34.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Doundary Carbide Coverage (%) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURW RELIABILITY AM RISK ASSESSMU (SRRA)

WESTING=K)USE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

=U=Us=Im 7? VARIADLES FOR CASE 9: XV Head Penetration 46 THRU 49 AEP a.L, i1-f-9

Output Print File VHPNPROV.p1O opened at 12:45 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strengtb (lsi) '58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 30.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Kai) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LGJO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUiCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSVMM (SRRm WESTfl WOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM4 VBPNROF ESBU-NSD INPM)T VARIABLES FOR CASE 10: RV Head Penetration 38 THRU 40 AEP 4"t

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P11 Opened at 12:46 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Msi) '35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 30.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LUO10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

= =========

INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 11: RV Head Penetration 41 THRU 45 AEP WARNING: PROBABILITIES CALCLTED FOR LESS THA 10-FAILURES CAN RAVE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINrfIES

I Output Print File VHPNMROF-P12 opened at 12:46 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 26.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 22.D LOC10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSM4NT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 12: RV Head Penetration 30 THRU 37 AEP

Output Print Pile VHPNPROF.P13 Opened at 12:47 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall *0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Rsi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 24.8 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0

LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0 00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMT (SRRA)

WESTINnHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF .SBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 13: RV Head Penetration 26 THRU 29 AEP

output Print File VHPHlROF.P14 Opened at 12:47 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength Masi) 35.0 Penetration Setup Angle Idegrees) 23.3 Penetration Tezperature (F) 575. 0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 48.2 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year I.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VRPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPuT VARIABLES FOR CASE 14: RV Head Penetration 22 AEP WARNING: PROBA3ILITIES CALCUIATED FOR LESS THAN 10 FAILURES CAN HAVE VERY HIGH UnERTAINTIES

Output Print Pile VHPNPROP.P15 Opened at 12:48 on 07-01-1997 T1iit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 23.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 42.1

)onths in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMZiT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPXPROF ESBU-NSD

=======3==========S=============== 3= = 233=3=3=3 INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 15: RV Head Penetration 23 THRU 25 AEP A.;

l WARNING: PROBABILITIES CALCUlATED FOR LESS THAN 10 PAILURES CAN HAVE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES A-66

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P16 Opened at 12:54 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) ^58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 18.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between IS! .0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 16: RV Head Penetration 15 THRU 21 AEP X-6 7

7

- . -,- -- - .- .. . - - 4,h fi,69

Output Print File VBPWPROF.P17 Opened at 12:55 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 18.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Asi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 42.1 Honths in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between 1S1 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 17: RV Head Penetration 14 AZP r- - a 1a WARNING: PROBABILITIES CALCULATED FOR LESS THAN 10 FAILURES CAN RAVE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINrIES

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P18 Opened at 12:56 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall .0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 56.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ysi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG20 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.S00 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 18: RV Head Penetration 12 AEP A4-7 0

2t.

Output Print File V11PNPROF.P29 Opened at 12:57 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPRO? ESBU-NSD

'INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 19: RV Head Penetration 10 11 13 AEP I 4,5 WARNING: PROBABILITIES CALCULATED FOR LESS THAN 10 FAILURES CAN HAVE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES

/I

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P20 Opened at 12:58 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength lKsi) -40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 11.4 Penetration Tenperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of.Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBW-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 20: RV Head Penetration 6 THRU 9 AEP WARNING: PROBABILITIES CALCMLNTED FOR LESSIilT FAILURES CAN HAVE VERY HIGH UNCMRTAINTIES

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P21 Opened at 12:58 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall .0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 8.0 Penetration Temperature IF) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (1) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL- RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMM (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 21: RV Head Penetration 2 THRU S ASP

Output Print File VHPNPROP.P22 Opened at 12:59 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength lXsi) '35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 0.0 Penetration Temnperature (F) 575.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG20 of Years Between ISI 0.OD Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RISK ASSESSMET (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 22: RV Read Penetration 1 AEP

WESmINGHOUSE VESSEL HEAD P. NOZZLE ECONOMIC DECISION ANALYSIS VHPNECON

{SBU-NSD 79 Nozzles at D.C. COOK 1 _ Plant on 07-02-97 06106/97 CYCLE X-PROB PROB-ONZ AVG-PROB E NUWMS) ab 6

7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 578 0R 21 22 23 24 25.

7-26 27 28 20 - 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 3 ° -39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 S0-59 60

I Output Print File VHPNPROF.P01 Opened at 10:53 on 07-01-1997 Lizrdt.Depth Fraction of Wall .0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength Iasi) *58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 48.8 Penetration TeVperature (1) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGI0 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 2.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD NP -=FOR CASE VARIABLES -RV=Hea==Penetratio ==n == =74==H= = -

INPUTr VARIABLES FOR CRSE 1: RV Head Penetration 74 THRU 79 AEF A--7 -)

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Output Print File VHPNPROF-P02 Opened at 10:54 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 monotonic Yield Strength (Isi) 58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 44.3 Penetration Teuperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%3 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISS 0.00 Wall Fraction for 5D% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENr (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VEPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 2: RV Head Penetration 70 THRU 73 AEP I

9 4-cO

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P03 Opened at 10:54 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) '8.5 penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 38.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage {%) 61.S Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 lOG10 of Years Betveen ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

-- - - - - - -==----=========

INMTF VARIABLES FOR CASE 3: RV Head Penetration 63 THRU 69 AEP 141k

*1 Output Print File VNPWROF.P04 Opened at 10:55 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength {Xsi) '38.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 38.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage M%) 36.2 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 5D% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMNfT (SRRA)

WESTI)EHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPiWROF ESBD-NSD VARIABLES FOR CASE 4:RV Head Penetration 62======= =P INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 4: WI Bead Penetration 62 AEP

.4 A

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P05 Opened at 10:56 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall D.750 Monotonic Yield strength (Ksi) -35.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 48.2 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT JSRRA)

WESTINGBOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 5: RV Head Penetration 60 AEP

a. L

,4-96

Output Print File VHPNTPROF.P06 Opened at 10:56 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall ..750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) -40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Temperature F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between 1SI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year I.DDD STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSHDIT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILMUE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESRU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 6: RV Head Penetration 58 59 61 AEP

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4.L 7,4L98

Output Print File VIwNPROr.P07 Opened at 10:57 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) - 35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 35.1 Penetration Temperature (F) 57B.0 Center Penetration Stress lKsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTUIRAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRiRA)

WESTINMHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUr VARIABLES FOR CASE 7: RV Head Penetration 53 THRU 57 AEP

41,6

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Output Print File VHPNPROP.P0 Opened at 10:58 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Isi) -40.5 Penietration Setup Angle (degrees) 35.1 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 42.1 fontbs in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMUZ (SRRA)

WEST7NGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAH VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD V IL==F-RCS==R=erPn==e===t===R 52 A winPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 8: 3WHead Penetration 50 T3IRU 52 AEP 14_F1

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P09 Opened at 10:59 on 07-02-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall .0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Isi) -35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 34.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG20 of Years Between ISI O.O0 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSHENT I(SRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

-INPUTJ VARIABLES FOR CASE 9: RV Head Penetration 46 THRU 49 AEP

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Output Print File VHPUPROF.P10 Opened at 10:59 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Wsi) 58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 30.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AnD RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 10: RV Head Penetration 38 THRU 40 AEP I

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P11 Opened at 11:00 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic! Yield Strength I(si) -35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 30.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 62.3 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI

0.00 Wall Fraction for 501 Detection 0.500 Operating cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURMJL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRAA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAH VHPNPROF ESBU-NDE INnUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 11: RV Head Penetration 41 SHRU 45 AEP WAPMNG: PROBABILITIES CALCULATED FOR LESS THXN 10 FAILURES CAN HAVE VERY HIGH UNCE3RTAINTIES

.) -96(

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P12 Opened at 11:00 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) * '-40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 26.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Isi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMET (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILSTY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

= = =

INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 12: RV Head Penetration 30 TBRU 37 AEP r, 4,!

0 6 El______________ ___

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P13 Opened at 11:01 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strengtb (USi) *4D.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 24.8 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between 3S1 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

F WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 13: RV Head Penetration 26 THRU 29 AEP

'4-99'

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P14 Opened at 11:02 on 07-01-1997 LX=it Depth Fraction of Wall .0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) ' 35.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 23.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (XIsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 48.2 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50t Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSHEN? (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OP FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

-INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 14: RY Head Penetration 22 AEP g, I WARNING: PROBABILITIES CALCULATZD FOR LESS TRWN 10 FAILURES CAN RAVE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES A -/,Cc

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P15 Opened at 11:03 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall .0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 23.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500.

Operating Cycles per Year 2.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AID RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE -PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRA1M VBPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 15: RV Head Penetration 23ThRU 25 AEP

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P16 Opened at 11:03 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Isi) .58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 18.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 61.5 Honths in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Yeazs Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RErLABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTI]QGHWSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 16: RV Head Penetration 15 THRU 21 AEP r- _, a

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P17 Opened at 11:04 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Praction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) -40.5 Peietration Setup Angle (degrees) 18.2 Penetration Tenperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Soundary Carbide Coverage (%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between ISI .0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSM1W (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VBPWPROF ESBU-NSD INPtTP VARIABLES FOR CASE 17: RV Head Penetration 14 AEP MWtNING: PROBABILITIES CALCULATED FOR LESS THAW 10 FAILURES CAN HAVE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P18 Opened at 11:05 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) -58.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.2 Penetration Tesperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage l%) 61.5 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG20 of Years Between 151 0.OD Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RISK ASSESSMNU$ (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY Or FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF . ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 18: RV Read Penetration 12 AEP A,

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i Output Print File VHPZNROF.P19 Opened at 11:05 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) '40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.2 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LIOO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50t Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY PAND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGEOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESVU-NSD

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INPUT? VARIABLES FOR CASE 19: RV Head Penetration 10 11 13 AEP I AA6

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Output Print Pile VHPNPROF.P20 Opened at 21:06 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 11.4 Penetration Tezperature CY) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 42.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.ODO STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX AsSEsSMEWr (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY O FAILURE PROGRAH VHPNPROP ESBU-NSD

-== -------- --- -Z5 INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 20: RV Head Penetration 6 THRU 9 AEP ok.o WARNING: PROBABILITIES CALCULATED FOR LESS THAN 10 FAILURES CAN HAVE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES Z4-/ag

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P21 Opened at 11:07 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) -40.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 8.0 Penetration Temperature {F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (1) 42.2 Montbs in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGI1 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 2.000 STRUCTURAL PRELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINSHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

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INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 2l: RV Read Penetration 2 THRU S AEP 4""

WARNING: PROBABILITIES CALCULATED FOR LESS THAN 10 FAILURES CAN HAVE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES X _ /0(

output Print File VHPNPROF.P22 Opened at 11:13 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 35.5 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 0.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 578.0 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 62.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between 151 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENr ISRRA)

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WESTrNGMOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INP VARIABLES FOR CASE 22: RV Head Pene r=ati==o==n ==

~NPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 22: RV Read Penetration 1.AEP afL

WESTINGHOUSE VESSEL MED PEN. NOZZLE ECONOMIC DECISION ANALYSIS VHPNECON ESBU-NSD 78 Nozzles at D.C. COOK 2 Plant on 07-02-97 06/06/97 CYCLE MAX-PROB PROB-ONE AVG-PROB E(NUMS) 7 3

4 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 X-/(/.

Output Print File VHP2NPRO?.PO Opened at 15:13 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 5s.0 Pen-etration getup Angle (degrees) 50.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%) 44.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between IS% 0.00 wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 operating cycles per Year 1.000 STRut)tuR FaRELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT {SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 1: RV, Head Penetration 75 AMP A-/IflL

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Output Print Pile VHP22PROF.P02 Opened at 15:14 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 57.0 Penetration Setup Angle Idegrees) 50.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Rsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 39.9 Months in Operating cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between IS1 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT ISRRA)

WESTIGH=OUSZ PROBABILITY OP FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESWU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 2: RV Head Penetration 76 ThRtU 78 AmP

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Output Print File VHPMPROF.PO3 Opened at 15:14 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 50.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xzi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 40.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12,0 LOG20 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENTf (SRRA)

WESTINOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAfUJRB PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 3: RV Head Penetration 74 AMP

LIA.L I

Output Print Pile VHPWIPROF.P04 Opened at 15:15 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 47.0 Penetration Tezperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (') 45.6 months in Operating Cycle 12.0 L0010 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RIM ASSESSMEDN (SRRA)

WESTI)NH0USE PROBABILITY Op FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPRoF ESBU-NSD 22*3UU23s nIPT VARIABLES FOR CASE 4: RV Head Penetration 69 SNRU 71 & 73 AMP a,

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P05 Opened at 15:15 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall p.750 Honotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) *63.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 47.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (tl 54.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMM2i3 (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 5: RV Head Penetration 66 TmiU 68 AMP raW*

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Output Print Pile VHPMPROF.P06 Opened at 15:16 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 47.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%) 56.1 Months'in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURtAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMEMT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 6: RV Head Penetration 72 AMP L----

~~~1 Output Print File VHPNPROF.j?07 Opened at 15:17 on 07-01-1997 bbiit Depth Fraction of Wall . 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 56.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 45.8 Penetration Temsperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%) 47.7 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESS2NT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRXA VHPsPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 7: RV Head Penetration 63 65 AMP A-1f

,4 -/ -)-5' Output Print Pile VHPm*OF.P08 Opened at 15:17 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 63.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 45.8 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 54.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGl0 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.50D operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMMENT SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPMROP ESBU-NSD

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INTUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 8: RV Head Penetration 62 AMP a,;

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b-Output Print File VPHNPROF.PO9 Opened at 15:18 on 07-01-1997 LXimt Depth Praction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 45.8 Penetration Tenperature IF) 595,5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 40.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between IS 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISS ASSESSKET1 (SRAA)

WESTINGIOSE PROBABILITY OF FAILRE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

-INPUT VARlABLES FOR CASE 9: RV Head Penetration 64 AMP

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Output Print Pile VHPNPROP.P10 Opened at 15:18 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 39.9 Penetration Temperature (P) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress tKsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary carbide Coverage i%) 44.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ZSI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000

.STRUCTSAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTING!MOUSE PROBABILITY OP FAILURZ PRGRAX UHPNPPRDP ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 10: RV Read Penetration 58 AMM 4.'

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Output Print File VHPNPRIOP.P11 Opened at 15:19 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall . 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 39.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Wsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 30.3 months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LCG10 of Years Between ISr 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RlSX ASSESSMZM ISRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAH VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUr VARIABIES FOR CASE 11: RV Head Penetration 60 AMP

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A--f 1 output Print File VPNMPROF.P12 Opened at 15:19 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fracqion of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 41.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 39.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress IXsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 30.6 months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10.of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ISRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAlLURZ PROGRAM VHP2NROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 12: RV Head Penetration 54 55 57 59 AMP At1 A'4-l

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I Output Print File VHpNPROF.P1l3 opened at 15:20 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monbtonic Yield Strength (Xsi) '51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 39.9 Penetration Tenperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress Ixsl) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 56.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between [SI 0.00 Wall Fraction for SO% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUZTURML RELSABILITY MAD RIST ASSESSM)NT JSRRA)

WESTIXGHWOUSZ PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESzU-NSD INPur VARIABLES FOR CASE 13: RV Head Penetration 61 AMP 48'

c/A Output Print File VHPNPROP.P14 Opened at 15:21 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 57.0 Penietration Setup Angle (degrees) 39.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Kai) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage I%) 39.9 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between IS1 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRVCTVRAL RELTABILITY AND RISK ASSESS)iW (SRRA)

WESTINGOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILUR8 PROGRAM VHPNPROP ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 14: RV Head Penetration 56 AMfP i-- - -- - --

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P15 Opened at 15:21 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750

ornotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) .58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 37.5 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress WKsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 45.6 Montbs in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between lSX 0.00 wall Fraction for 50%Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STR`UC7WRAL RELlABILlTY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRXM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 15: RV Head Penetration 53 AMP q_ - R q1 h,4 -(KC

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P16 Opened at 15:22 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monbtonic Yield Strength (1Xi) 41.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 37.5 Penetration Tenperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress {Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 30.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTUUL, RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINRHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURB PROGRAM VBPNPROP ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 16: RV Head Penetration 52 AMP a,b a-/,'qI

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Output Print Pilo VHPNPROF.P17 Opened at 15:22 on 07-01-1997 Limait Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Lsi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 37.5 Penetration Temperature IF) 595,5 Center Penetration Stress (lsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%) 56.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LO010 of Years Between IS1 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTVRAL RELIABILITY AMD RISX- ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGROUSE PROBASILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF . ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 17: RV Head Penetration 50 51 AMP r -- ;

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Output Print File VHPNUPROF.P18 opened at 15:23 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic kield Strength (tsi) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Esi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 30.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUC7`UUAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSM4NT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OP FAILURE PROGRA VYHPNPROP ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASR 18: RV Head Penetration \49 A"P

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Output Print File VHPNMPRF.Pl9 Opened at 15224 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall . 0.750 Honotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Tezperature IF) 595.5 center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary carbide Coverage (*) 45.6 Months in Operating cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between ISI 0.00 wall Praction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ISMRA)

WESTINGOUS9 PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 19: RV Head Penetration 43 45 THRU 48 A"P e9a 14-1 (,c 0

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P20 Opened at 15:25 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 57.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Teperature CP) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Rsi) 34*4 Grain Boundary Cazbide Coverage J%) 39.9 months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMZNT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURM PROGRMA VHMtqROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 20: RV Head Penetration 42 44 AMP r- -, 4*

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Output Print File VHPMPROF.P21 Opened at 15:26 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield strength (Ksi) 57.0 PenQtration Setup Angle (degrees) 35.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 39.9 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between ISI 0.00 wall Fraction for 50% Detection O.50D Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABITY AND RISE ASSESSE3NT ISRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 21: RV Head Penetration 38 THRU 41 AMP

Output Print Pile VHPNPRoF.P22 Opened at 15:26 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750

)onotonic Yield strength V(si) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 31.1 Penetration Temperature IF) 595.S Center Penetration Stress (Kxi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 30.3 Months in OPerating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 S5CTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESS11Mf (SRRA)

WME.SNGHOUSS PROBA3ILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHYNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 22: RV Head Penetration 30 34 THRU 37 AMP r n4 V-I'K

1 calf Output Print File VHPSPROF.P23 Opened at 15:27 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength RKsi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 31.1 Penetration Tenperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress fKsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 56.1 Months In Operating Cycle 12.0 Lo10 of Years Between 1SI 0.00 Wall }raction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCIVRJL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESS)!DT ISRRA)

WESTIIGaOWSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAf VHNNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 23: RV Head Penetration 31 33 AMfP r -- *14

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Output Print File VHP`NROF.P`24 Opened at 15:27 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 31.1 Penetration Tcmperature (!) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress tUsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 40.1 mooths in operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection O.5O0 operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RIrS ASSESSM"r (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSS PROBABILITY OF FAILVRB PRoGRAm vupPROF ESDU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 24: RV Head Penetration 32 AMP

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Output Print File VHVPNMOF.P25 opened at 15:28 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (xsi) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 27.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration stress u(si) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage t%) 30.3 Months in Operatiny Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between IS 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000

STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAWLIUR PROGRAM VH PUPROF ESBU-NSD INPt1T VA.RIABLES FOR CASE 25: RV Head Penetration 29 AMP A - /60Q

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Output Print File PHFNPROF.P26 Opened at 15:29 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle Idegrees) 27.0 Penetration Temperature (P) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress o(zi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (S) 45.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between 1SI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating cycles per Year 1.000 S 5RCTURAL RELIABILT AND RISK ASSESSMMT (Sa)w WESTfNl0RUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PRMCGRAK v)MPROF ES3U-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 26: RV Head Penetration 27 28 AMP

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Output Print Pile VPFNPROP.P27 Opened at 15:29 on 07-01-1997 Linit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength f2lsi) '51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 27.0 Penetration Teqeratuxe (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 56.1 MontbI in Operating Cycle 12.0 LWG10 of Years Beeteen ISI 0.00 Wsll Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTORAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMHEH (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAIlURt PROGRAX VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABES FOR CASE 27: RV Head Penetration 22 AMIP t.0I

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- --- .--- I Output Print File VHPNPROF.P28 Opened at 15:30 on 07-01-1997 LiMit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (xKa) '57.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 27.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 center Penetration Stress (Wsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 39.9 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50M Detection 0.500 Operating cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMEN? (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE POGRAOM VHFNPR0F ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 28: RV Head Penetration 23 24 AMP

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Output Print File VHPNPROP.P29 Opened at 15:3D on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Rsi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 27.0 Penetration Tenperature IF) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain BEnadary Carbide Coverage (1) 40.1 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LDG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY O FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 29: RV Head Penetration 25 26 AMP Z.- -, -,- " " -- , "-"- ""' -- , -" -

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P30 Opened at 15:31 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Honotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 25.5 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.S Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (1U 30.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSkMM (SRRh)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM ViPNPROF ESBU-NSD I

INPUr VARIABLES FOR CASE 30: RV Head Penetration 18 THRU 21 A"P X

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P31 Opened at 15:31 on 07-01-1997 bLimit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 23.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Esi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 11) 30.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOC10 of Years Between ISS 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL R=IMAsLIT AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRAA)

WESTINGHMVS1 PROBABILITY OF FAILtURZ PAOGRAM VHPNPROF ESZW-NSD INPUT VARIABLZS FOR CASE 31: RV Head Penetration 15 AMP

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Output Print File VHPTPROF.P32 Opened at 15:32 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 23.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 56.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Yeas 1.000 STRUCfltAL RE$IABILITY AND RISK ASSES5NDIT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSB PROBABILIT OP FAILURS PROG2CtU VOPNPROF SEU-1-SD

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INPUT VARIABLES rOR CASE 32: RV Head Penetration 14 16 AMP I

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.?33 Opened at 15:32 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Honotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 23.9 Penetration Teuperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Wsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (U 40.1 months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between IS% 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RISK ASSESSMET (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSB PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD

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3 INPUT VARIABLZS FOR CASE 33: RV Head Penetration 17 AMP ohL

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-n a, 6 Output Print File VHPNPROP.P34 Opened at 15:33 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of wall 0.,750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Isi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 18.7 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%) 45.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between 1S3 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTUA RELIABILITY ANW RISK ASSESSMENT (SR)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURS PROGRAX VHPNPROF MSDU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 34: RV Head Penetration 13 AMP

W I-j79

output Print File VHP2WROT.P35 opened at 15:34 on 07-01-1997 0.750 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 57.0 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 18.7 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees)

Penetration Tezverature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Msi) 34.4 39.9 Grain Boundary carbide.coverage (%)

12.0 Months in operating Cycle 0.00 LOGl1 of Years Between ISI Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTUL RELIABILITY AMD RISK ASSZSSHME (SRA)

PROBABILMTY OF FAILURE PROGRXM VHPMNROF ESMU-NSD WESTINMOQSE 12 AMP INPIr vARIABLES FOR CASZ 35: RV Head Penetration 10 NTHRU

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1S Output Print File VHPNPROF.P36 Opened at 15:35 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.7 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress MKsO) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (M) 30.3 Honths in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating cycles per Year 1.000 STSRUCTURXL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSHME2 (SRU)

WESTIHGHOUSE PROBABILITY OP FAILURE PROGRAMI VHPNPROP ESBU-NSD INPUr VARIABLES FOR CASE 36: RV Head Penetration 9 AMP 1 l e

low -----, -i Output Print File VHPNPROF.P37 Opened at 15:35 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Mnootonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.7 Penetration Temperature IF) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 45.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRXAM VHPNROF ESBU-NSD INPVUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 37: RV Head Penetration 8 AMP rw aIn A L 49-, - "--, -- , -- ,- , , ---- - - -I,-- -- - .--- --,-m

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P38 Opened at 15:42 on 07-01-1997 Liiait Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Honotonic Yield Strength lKsi) 41.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.7 Penetration Temperature (7) 595,5 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Crain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 30.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTSRAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENrT (SRMA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNpROF SSBU-NSD INP1T VARIABLES FOR CASE 38: RV Head Penetration 6 AMP

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P39 Opened at 15:43 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield! Strength Isi) 57.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.7 Penetration Tezperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (X) 39.9 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL £ELIABILITY AND RISX M.SSESSIT (SRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PRsOBAILr OF FAILURE PROGIWI VHPNP1CF ESBU-NSD INP7r VARIABLES FOR CASE 39: RV Head Penetration 7 AMP F all

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Output Print File VHP2NPROF.P40 Opened at 15:44 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 0

Monotonic Yield strength (Ksi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 11.7 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary carbide Coverage (U 45.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between IS! 0.00 wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 operating Cycles per Year 1.000 S~TRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AN~D RIS3 ASSESS~M? (SRRAU)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VUPNPRDF ESBU-NSD INp~vr VARMOLE FOR CAS 40: RV Head Penetration 2 THR0 5 AMP am ... . ...... ... ....

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Output Print File VHPNPROP.P41 Opened at IS:44 on 07-01-1997 LiMit Depth Fraction of Wall Q.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Kai) 63.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 0.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 595.5 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) S4.1 Honths in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.D0 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAs RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPHW VARIABLES FOR CASE 41: RV Head Penetration 1 AMP I Ao 6

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NESTINGROUSE NrESSEL HEAD PEN. NOZZLE ECONOMIC DECISION ANALYSIS VHPNECON ESBU-NSD T8 Nozzles at D.C. COOK 2 Plant on 07-02 06/06/97 CYCLE MAX- PROB PROB-ONE AVG-PROB E(NUflFS)

Alb 6

7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 A-l4

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P01 Opened at 13:42 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of 'Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 50.6 Penetration Tezmperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide.Coverage (%) 44.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGID of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTUIRAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAMt VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 1: RV Head Penetration 75 AMP A-/ 5

.- @S Output Print File VHPNPROF.P02 Opened at 13:43 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 57.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 50.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%1 39.9 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between IS! 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENr (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OP FAILURE PROGRAH VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIAILES FOR CASE 2: RV Head Penetration 76 THRU 78 AMP ow,

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I Output Print Pile VHPNPROF.P03 Opened at 13:44 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 50.6 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage ('4 40.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Yeas3 Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.00D STRUCTUVRAL ELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMD?1 (SFURA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 3: RV Head Penetration 74 AMP L ____

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Output Print File VHP2WPROF.P04 Opened at 13:44 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0,.750 Monotonic Yield Strengtb JKsi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 47.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 45.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 2.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA).

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABIL1TY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD XNPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 4: RV Head Penetration 69 THRU 71 & 73

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output Print Pile VHPNPROF.P05 Opened at 13:45 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksil 63.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 47.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 54.1 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between.ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSHMT (SPRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD XNPUr VARIABLES FOR CASE 5: RV Head Penetration 66 THRU 68 AMP I

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Output Print File VHPNP2ROF.P06 Opened at 13:47 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.s50 Hondtonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 47.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 56.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOCl2 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIADBILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VIIFNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 6: RV Head Penetration 72 AMP

A4-,,Io a Output Print File VHPNPROF.P07 Opened at 13:48 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 56.0 Penetration Setup Angle Idegrees) 45.8 Penetration Temperature IF) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 47.7 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between 1SI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per-Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMNT (SRRA)

WESTINHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD r 1 IMPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 7: RV Head Penetration 63 65 AMP x,6

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,/~-2v08 output Print File VHPNPROF.P08 Opened at 13:50 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0,,750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 63.0-Penetration Setup Angle {degrees) 45.8 Penetration Tenperature F.) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Kai) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 54.1 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INpuT VARIABLES FOR CASE 8: RV Head Penetration 62 AMP r "

CO' Output Print File VSPHPROF.P09 Opened at 13:54 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) -5I.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 45.8 Penettation Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Crain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 40.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1D of Years Between ISI 0,00 Waal Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTUL RELIABlLMTT A2JD RISK ASSESSMENT ISRR)

WESTIlSHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM V1P2UPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 9: RV Head Penetration 64 AMP a', clb

E Output Print File VJEUZPROF.P1O Opened at 13:55 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.759 Monotonic Yield-Strength (Xsi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) .39.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary carbide Coverage C%) 44.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOWG1 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCMTMAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMMNMr (SRRA)

W2STINGMOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAXLUME PROGRUAM VHPNPROF ESBUt-NSD INWPT VARIXBLES FOR CASE 10: RV MEAD PENETRATION 58 AMP

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7-Output Print Pile vHPNPROF.Pll Opened at 14:00 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monbtonic Yield Strength Mtsi) '44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 39.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Scress Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 30.3 Honths in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50 Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELABILITY AND RISK. aSSESSsM? (SRRA)

WESTI1"1OUSE PROAUILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF gSBU-NSD INPuT VARIABLES FOR CASE 11: RV Head Penetration 60 AMP F

I Output Print File VRPNPROF.P12 Opened at 14:01 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) '42.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 39.9 Penetration Tenperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress IKsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 30.6 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUC*TURAL RELIAILITY AND RISK ASSESSMNT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAXIMRM PFOGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 12: RV Bead Penetration 54 55 57 59 AMP 4, t

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Output Print File VfP2PROF.P13 Opened at 14:02 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Kzsi) '51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) -39.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 56.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.5DD Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELXABILITY AND RISK ASSES4;za= (SRRA)

WESTINGHBOUSE VPROBAL1TY OF TFILURE PROGAM SPYR -SD

n.nT VARZABLES FOR CASE 13: RV Head Penetration 61 AMP

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-a .2o Output Print File VHPNPROF.Pl4 Opened at 14:03 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Rsi) 57.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 39.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (0) 39.9 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILXTY AND RISX ASSESSMVU (SRRA)

WESSTINGUOSE PROBABILITY OF FaL PROGRAM VHPOMF ESBU-NSD INPUT VA1UABLES FOR CASE 14: RV Head Penetration 56 AMP i

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i Output Print File VHPNPROF.P15 Opened at 14:04 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of wall 0.750 Monotonic yield Strength ttsi) 58.D Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 37.5 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (M) 45.6 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 501 Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 ST'RUCAL NI5IILIT? AND RISK ASSdSMMNT (SRa)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITr OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 15: RV Head Penetration 53 AMP cAb l/ Z3:

I 1 Output Print File V1iPNPROF.PIS Opened at 14:04 on 07-01-1997 Lnimit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield strength (Rsi) 41.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 37.5 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (U 30.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Detween 1St 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AM~D RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRtAM VX2NPRQF ESB%-NSb INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 16: RV Head Penetration 52 AM?

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P17 Opened at 14:05 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall

0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 37.5 Penetration Teuperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 56.1 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL MIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENr (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PRODIhDILITY 07 FAILURE PROGRAH VHFNPROP ESBU-NSD INPUT VARLABLES FOR CALSE 17: RV Head Penetration 50 51 AMP

3 Output Print File V11PNPROF.P18 Opened at 14:06 on 07-01-1997 Lizit Depth Fraction of Wall . 0.750 Mon6tonic Yield-strength (Ksi) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Temperature Ml) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress lWsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1t) 30.3

'Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 L4G10 of Years Between lSl 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RISK ASSESSMENT (MRRA)

WESTINSHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBIU-NSD INPUT VARIAMLMS FOR CASE 18: RV Head Penetration 49 AMP

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P19 Opened at 14:09 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 36.3 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress MOsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 45.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1O of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMNEW (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAH VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD IN==== VAIABLES FR CASE

= 9== R==V=H==:3 u=e=n=e-=tion 43 45 =48=AMP INPUT VAR IABLES FOR CASB 19: RV Bead Fcnetration 43 45 THRV 48 A2*P X-1 /

I Output Print File VHPNPROF.P20 Opened at 14:10 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of wall 0.750

Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 57.0

Penetration Setup Angle Idegrees) 3.6.3 Penetration Temperature IF) 60D.7 Center Penetration Stress (Esi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 39.9 months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1D of Years Between ISS 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABIL17Y AMD RISK ASSESSMTr {SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VEPNPROF ESBU-NSD r INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 20: RV Head Penetration 42 44 AMP AL

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Output Print File VHPTWROF.P2l Opened at 14:11 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Wsi) S7. 0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 35.0 Penetration Terperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress IKsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 39.9 Months in operating cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTWRAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMT (SRRA).

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 21: RV Bead Penetration 38 7HRU 41 AMP

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output Print File VHPNPROF.P22 Opened at 14:12 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 31.1 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage 1%) 30.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Betveen ISI 0.00 wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPMT VARIABLES FOR CASE 22: RV Head Penetration 30 34 THRU 37 Af4P

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Output Print Pile VHPNPROF.P23 Opened at 14:13 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yiekd Strength (.si) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 31.1 Penetration Teuperature IF) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 56.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMNM (SRRA)

WESTINXHOUSE PRoBABU.ITY OF FAILURE PROGRAH VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 23: RV Head Penetration 31 33 AMP

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P24 opened at 14:14 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Isi) . 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 31.1 Penetration Teaperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 40.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG20 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMfZr (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 24: RV Head Penetration 32 AmP

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P25 Opened at 14:15 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength Ixsi) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 27.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 60D.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 30.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between XSI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL REL!ABILITY AMD RISK ASSESSHMT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 25: RV Head Penetration 29 AMP

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Output Print File V9PNPROF.P26 Opened at 14:15 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of wall 0.750 Mon6tonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 27.0 Penetration Tenperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 45.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LO10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTDNGHOUSE PROBABILITY OP FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 26: RV Head Penetration 27 28 AMP

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Output Print File VHPNPROP.P27 Opened at 14:16 on 07-01-1997 Linit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 27.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage b%) 56.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHUSE PROBAILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 27: RV Head Penetration 22 AP r ,ajj

A4-2 4'e Output Print File VHfl2PROF.P28 Opened at 14:17 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0,.750 Monotonic Yield strength (Ksi) 57.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 27.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage i1) 39.9 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCT)URAL RELIABILITY ANlD RISX ASSESSMT? (SRRA)

NESTINMHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FMWP.E PROGRAx VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD XNPUtT VARIABLES FOR CASNE 2B: RV Head Penetration 23 24 AMP 1 r 1 q.b

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Output Print File VH'NPROF.P29 Opened at 14:17 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Xonotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 27.0 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage M%) 40.1 months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOG20 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURB PROGRAFM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARMABLES FOR CASE 29: RV Head Penetration 25 26 AMP r 1 4.6

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Output Print File VHPNPROP.P30 Opened at 14:18 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0_750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) ' 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 25.5 Penetration Temperature IF) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 30.3 months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 S7RUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 30: RV Head Penetration 18 NRRU 21 AMP IA,6

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P31 opened at 14:20 on 07-01-1997 Linit Depth Fraction of Wall 0-750 Monotonic Yield Strength MMsi) 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 23.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Xsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 30.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSMENT .(SRRhA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 31: RV Head Penetration 15 AMP

A -7;2 6 Output Print File VHPNPROF.P32 Opened at 14:24 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Isi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle Idegrees) 23.9 Penetration Tezperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (asi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (4) 56.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000

SrUCXnRAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMMNT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 32: RV Head Penetration 14 16 AMP 4,6

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Output Print File VHPHPROF.P33 Opened at 14:24 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 51.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 23.9 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress Cxsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 40.1 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOGID of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection O.SOO Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SMRA)

WESTINGCHOUSt PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VMMNPROF ESBU-NSD

r-INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 33: RV Head Penetration 17 AMP

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Output Print File VHPPNPROF.P34 Opened at 14:25 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) '58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 18.7 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration stress MXsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (1) 45.6 Months in operating Cycle 12.0 LOGlO of Years Between !SI 0.00 Wall Praction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTrURAL NELIABILITY AYD RISIZ ASSESMEN~T (SRRA)

WESTINMIOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILUNB PROCRAM V21PNPROF ESBU-NSD NPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE3 34:- RV Nead Penetration 13 AMP

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Output Print File VHPNPROF.P35 Opened at 14:26 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Msi) 57.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 18.7 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 39.9 Wonths in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG20 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIA9ILITY AND RISK ASSES5NTI r (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROP ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABEXS FOR CASE 35: RV Head Penetration 10 THRU 12 AMP 4,6

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Output Print File VHPVPROF.P36 Opened at 14:27 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.7SO Monotonic Yield strength jfti) . 44.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.7 Penetration Temperature IF) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (1si) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 30.3 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AMD RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 36: RV Head Penetration 9 AMP d'a' A-, 6 '

i Output Print File VHPMROF.P37 opened at 14:28 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 58.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.7 Penetration Temperature IF) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (t) 45.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of.Years Between ISX 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.00D STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD nfPur VARIABLES FOR CASE 37: RV Head Penetration 8 AMP MO .n

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i t

I 4-..2 6 g

Output Print File VHPNPROF.P38 Opened at 14:29 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 41.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) i6.7 Penetration Tenperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (M) 30.6 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 OIO1 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

WESTINMOHU5E PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 38: RV Head Penetration 6 AMP _ n

ats A,4 -I7 N,

Output Print File VHPPROF.P39 Opened at 14:29 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Honotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 57.0 Penetration Setup Angle (degrees) 16.7 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 39.9 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOG10 of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISX ASSESSz2U (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHFNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 39: RV Head Penetration 7 AMP r a

I96 Output Print File VHPNPROF.P4D Opened at 14:30 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Xsi) 'S8.0 Penetration setup Angle (degrees) 11.7 Penetration Temperature (F) 600.7 Center Penetration Stress (Ksi) 34.4 Grain Boundary carbide Coverage (%) 45.6 Monthbs in operating Cycle 12.0 LOG1o of Years Between ISI 0.00 Wall Fraction for 50% Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AtND RISK ASSESSM2qT (SRRA)

WESTINGHOUSE PROBABILIM OF FAILURE PROGRAXi VHPNPROF ESBU-NSD INPUT VARIABLES FOR CASE 40: RV Bead Penetration 2 THRU 5 AM1P

F

,- -I . -7

Output Print File VHPNFROF.P41 Opened at 14:31 on 07-01-1997 Limit Depth Fraction of Wall 0.750 Monotonic Yield Strength (Ksi) 63.0 Penetration Setup Angle Idegrees) 0.0 Penetration Temperature IF) 600.7 Center Penetration stress txsi) 34.4 Grain Boundary Carbide Coverage (%) 54.1 Months in Operating Cycle 12.0 LOGIO of Years Between ISz 0.00 Wall Fraction for 5D Detection 0.500 Operating Cycles per Year 1.000 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SRRA)

%7ESTI12GH0USE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE PROGRAM VHPKPROF ESBU-NSD X!UMT VARIABLES FOR CASE 41: RY Head Penetration 1 AMP AL-.2-7

/q-.2-7C

ML042510231

Contents

Text

References:

Attachment:

SUMMARY

1.0 INTRODUCTION

SUMMARY

SUMMARY

SUMMARY

SUMMARY

7.0 REFERENCES

S==Z========= ========== ==5_==-======

=s-w2=s~t U 33====32-SUma-ZSUU- =U =33-==t

= =========

== = = -= ---- 3 =2

5m=3~w-=======U===2~e=SSw=a-=== ======23

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ML042510231

Text

References:

Attachment:

SUMMARY

1.0 INTRODUCTION

SUMMARY

SUMMARY

SUMMARY

SUMMARY

7.0 REFERENCES

S==Z========= ========== ==5_==-======

=s-w2=s~t U 33====32-SUma-ZSUU- =U =33-==t

= =========

== = = -= ---- 3 =2

5m=3~w-=======U===2~e=SSw=a-=== ======23

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