ML19156A448

PFHA2019-Final-Agenda

ML19156A448
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Issue date:	04/30/2019
From:	Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
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4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop April 30 - May 2, 2019 U.S. NRC Headquarters, Rockville, Maryland On April 30 - May 2, 2019, the Nuclear Regulatory Commissions Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC/RES) will host the 4th Annual NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop at NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland. Staff and contractors from NRC, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI),

federal agencies, industry, and other organizations involved in flood hazard assessment, flood risk assessment, and flood protection/mitigation research will provide information on recent results, current activities, and perspectives on future research directions. This three-day workshop is open to the public at no charge, but registration is required.

AGENDA: TUESDAY, APRIL 30, 2019 09:00 - 09:10 Welcome & Logistics Session 1A: Introduction Session Chair: Meredith Carr, NRC/RES 09:10 - 09:25 Introduction 1A-1 Raymond Furstenau*, Director, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research 09:25 - 09:45 NRC Flooding Research Program Overview 1A-2 Joseph Kanney*, Meredith Carr, Tom Aird, Elena Yegorova, Mark Fuhrmann and Jacob Philip, NRC/RES 09:45 - 10:05 EPRI External Flooding Research Program Overview 1A-3 Marko Randelovic*, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 10:05 - 10:20 Nuclear Energy Agency: Committee on the Safety of Nuclear 1A-4 Installations (CSNI): Working Group on External Events (WGEV)

Flooding Overview John Nakoski*, NRC/RES 10:20 - 10:35 BREAK

• denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter 1

4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop Session 1B: Coastal Flooding Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES 10:35 - 11:05 KEYNOTE: NWS Storm Surge Ensemble Guidance 1B-1 Arthur Taylor*, National Weather Service / Office of Science and Technology Integration / Meteorological Development Laboratory 11:05 - 11:30 Advancements in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models and Uncertainty 1B-2 Quantification Using Gaussian Process Metamodeling Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo*, Victor M. Gonzalez, Alexandros Taflanidis, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) R&D Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory 11:30 - 11:55 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Using the Joint Probability 1B-3 Method for Hurricane Storm Surge Michael Salisbury^, Atkins North America, Inc., Marko Randelovic*, EPRI 11:55 - 12:20 Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainty for Probabilistic Storm Surge 1B-4 Hazard Assessment using a Logic Tree Approach Bin Wang*, Daniel C. Stapleton, David M. Leone, GZA GeoEnvironmental, Inc.

12:20 - 13:00 Coastal Flooding Panel 1B-5 Arthur Taylor, National Weather Service Victor Gonzalez, USACE Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory Michael Salisbury, Atkins North America, Inc.

Bin Wang, GZA GeoEnvironmental, Inc.

Guest Panelist: Chris Bender, Taylor Engineering 13:00 - 14:00 LUNCH Session 1C: Precipitation Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES 14:00 - 14:30 KEYNOTE: Satellite Precipitation Estimates, GPM, and Extremes 1C-1 George J. Huffman*, NASA/GSFC 14:30 - 14:55 Hurricane Harvey Highlights: Need to Assess the Adequacy of 1C-2 Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation Methods Shih-Chieh Kao, Scott T. DeNeale, David B. Watson, ORNL This presentation was based on - Kao, S.-C., S. T. DeNeale, and D. B. Watson (2019), Hurricane Harvey Highlights: Need to Assess the Adequacy of Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation Methods, J. Hydrol. Eng., 24(4),

05019005, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001768. Further details can be referred to Kao et al. (2019).

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4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 14:55 - 15:20 Reanalysis Datasets in Hydrologic Hazards Analysis 1C-3 Jason Caldwell, USACE, Galveston District. Presented by John England, USACE, RMC 15:20 - 15:35 BREAK Session 1C: Precipitation, continued Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES 15:35 - 16:00 Current Capabilities for Developing Watershed Precipitation- 1C-4 Frequency Relationships and Storm-Related Inputs for Stochastic Flood Modeling for Use in Risk-Informed Decision-Making M.G. Schaefer*, MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc.

16:00 - 16:25 Factors Affecting the Development of Precipitation Areal Reduction 1C-5 Factors Shih-Chieh Kao*, Scott DeNeale, ORNL 16:25 - 17:05 Precipitation Panel Discussion 1C-6 George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC Shih-Chieh Kao, ORNL John England, USACE, Risk Management Center Mel Schaefer, MGS Engineering Consultants Guest Panelist: Kevin Quinlan, NRC/NRO 17:05 - 17:20 Daily Wrap-up 3

4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop AGENDA: WEDNESDAY, MAY 1, 2019 08:20 - 08:30 Day 2 Welcome Session 2A: Riverine Flooding Session Chairs: Meredith Carr and Mark Fuhrmann, NRC/RES 08:30 - 9:00 KEYNOTE: Watershed level Risk Analysis with HEC-WAT 2A-1 Will Lehmann*, Lea Adams, Chris Dunn, USACE, Institute for Water Resources, Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) 09:00 - 09:25 Global Sensitivity Analyses Applied to Riverine Flood Modeling 2A-2 Claire-Marie Duluc*, Vincent Rebour, Vito Bacchi, Lucie Pheulpin & Nathalie Bertrand, Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN) Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety Institute 09:25 - 09:50 Detection and attribution of flood change across the United States 2A-3 Stacey A. Archfield*, Water Mission Area, U.S. Geological Survey - Presentation Cancelled 09:50 - 10:15 Bulletin 17C Flood Frequency and Extrapolations for Dams and 2A-4 Nuclear Facilities John F. England*, USACE, Risk Management Center; Haden Smith, USACE, Risk Management Center; Brian Skahill, USACE R&D Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory 10:15 - 10:35 BREAK Session 2A: Riverine Flooding, continued Session Chairs: Meredith Carr and Mark Fuhrmann, NRC/RES 10:35 - 11:00 Riverine Paleoflood Analyses in Risk-Informed Decision Making: 2A-5 Improving Hydrologic Loading Input for USACE Dam Safety Evaluations Keith Kelson*, USACE, Sacramento Dam Safety Production Center; Justin Pearce, USACE, Risk Management Center; Brian Hall, USACE, Dam Safety Modification Mandatory Center of Expertise 11:00 - 11:25 Improving Flood Frequency Analysis with a Multi-Millennial Record of 2A-6 Extreme Floods on the Tennessee River near Chattanooga, TN Tess Harden*, Jim OConnor and Mackenzie Keith, U.S.

Geological Survey 4

4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 11:25 - 12:05 Riverine Flooding Panel Discussion Will Lehmann, USACE/IWR Hydrologic Engineering Center Claire-Marie DuLuc, IRSN John F. England, USACE, Risk Management Center Keith Kelson, USACE, Sacramento Dam Safety Production Center Tess Harden, U.S. Geological Survey 12:05 - 13:25 LUNCH Session 2B: Modeling Frameworks Session Chair: Thomas Nicholson, NRC/RES 13:25 - 13:50 Structured Hazard Assessment Committee Process for Flooding 2B-1 (SHAC-F)

Rajiv Prasad^ and Phillip Meyer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Kevin Coppersmith, Coppersmith Consulting 13:50- 14:15 Overview of the TVA PFHA Calculation System 2B-2 Shaun Carney*, RTI International, Water Resource Management Division, Curt Jawdy, Tennessee Valley Authority 14:15 - 14:40 Development of Risk-Informed safety margin characterization 2B-3 framework for flooding of nuclear power plants M.A. Andre, George Washington University; E. Ryan, Idaho State University, Idaho National Laboratory; Steven Prescott, Idaho National Laboratory; N. Montanari, R. Sampath, Centroic Lab; L. Lin, A. Gupta, N. Dinh, North Carolina State University; Philippe M. Bardet*, George Washington University 14:40 - 15:20 Modeling Frameworks Panel Discussion 2B-4 Rajiv Prasad, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Shaun Carney, RTI International Philippe M. Bardet, George Washington University Will Lehmann, USACE/IWR, Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)

Guest Panelist: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES 15:20 - 15:35 Daily Wrap-up 5

4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 15:35 - 16:50 Session 2C: Poster Session Session Chair: Meredith Carr, NRC/RES 2C-1 Coastal Storm Surge Assessment using Surrogate Modeling Methods Azin Al Kajbaf, Michelle Bensi, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland.

2C-2 Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments Michelle (Shelby) Bensi, Somayeh Mohammadi; Center for Disaster Resilience, University of Maryland, Scott DeNeale, Shih-Chieh Kao; Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

2C-3 Modelling dependence and coincidence of flooding phenomena: methodology and simplified case study in Le Havre in France A. Ben Daoued, Sorbonne university - Université de Technologie de Compigne; Y. Hamdi, Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire; N. Mouhous-Voyneau, Sorbonne university - Université de Technologie de Compigne; P.

Sergent, Cerema 2C-4 Current State-of-Practice in Dam Risk Assessment Scott DeNeale; Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Lab, Greg Baecher; Center for Disaster Resilience, University of Maryland, Kevin Stewart; Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Lab.

2C-5 Hurricane Harvey Highlights the Challenge of Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation Shih-Chieh Kao, Scott T. DeNeale, David B. Watson; Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory 2C-6 Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for hydraulic models with dependent inputs Lucie Pheulpin, Vito Bacchi and Nathalie Bertrand; Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France 2C-7 Development of Hydrologic Hazard Curves using SEFM for Assessing Hydrologic Risks at Rhinedollar Dam, CA Bruce Barker, MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc., Nicole Novembre, Brava Engineering, Inc., Matthew Muto and John Dong, Southern California Edison, Blake Allen and Katie Ward, MetStat, Inc., Jason Caldwell, Weather & Water, Inc.

2C-8 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant in Korea Kim, Beomjin, Ph.D. Candidate, Kyungpook National University, Korea; Han, Kun-Yeun, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering; Kyungpook National University; Kim, Minkyu, Principal Researcher, Korea Atomic Energy Institute, Korea.

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4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 18:00 Group Dinner AGENDA: THURSDAY, MAY 2, 2019 08:20 - 08:30 Day 3 Welcome Session 3A: Climate and Non-stationarity Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES 08:30 - 09:00 KEYNOTE: Hydroclimatic Extremes Trends and Projections: A View 3A-1 from the Fourth National Climate Assessment Kenneth Kunkel*, North Carolina State University 09:00 - 09:25 Regional Climate Change Projections: Potential Impacts to Nuclear 3A-2 Facilities L. Ruby Leung* and Rajiv Prasad, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 09:25 - 09:50 Role of Climate Change/Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane 3A-3 Season Young-Kwon Lim*,1,2, Siegfried Schubert1,3, Robin Kovach1,3, Andrea Molod1, Steven Pawson1; 1NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, 2Goddard Earth Sciences, Technology, and Research / I. M. Systems Group, 3Science Systems and Applications, Inc.

9:50 - 10:30 Climate Panel Discussion 3A-4 Kenneth Kunkel, North Carolina State University L. Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Young-Kwon Lim, GSFC/NASA Guest Panelist: Kevin Quinlan, NRC/NRO 10:30 - 10:50 BREAK Session 3B: Flood Protection and Plant Response Session Chair: Thomas Aird, NRC/RES 10:50 - 11:15 External Flood Seal Risk-Ranking Process 3B-1 Ray Schneider*, Westinghouse, Marko Randelovic*, EPRI 11:15- 11:40 Results of Performance of Flood-Rated Penetration Seals Tests 3B-2 William (Mark) Cummings, Fisher Engineering, Inc.

11:40- 1205 Modeling Overtopping Erosion Tests of Zoned Rockfill Embankments 3B-3 Tony Wahl^, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 7

4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop 12:05- 12:45 Flood Protection and Plant Response Panel Discussion 3B-4 Ray Schneider, Westinghouse William (Mark) Cummings, Fisher Engineering, Inc.

Tony Wahl^, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Guest Panelist: Jacob Philip, NRC/RES 12:45 - 13:45 LUNCH Session 3C: Towards External Flooding PRA Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES 13:45 - 14:10 External Flooding PRA Walkdown Guidance 3C-1 Andrew Miller*, Jensen Hughes, Marko Randelovic*, EPRI 14:10 - 14:35 Updates on the Revision and Expansion of the External Flooding PRA 3C-2 Standard Michelle(Shelby) Bensi*, University of Maryland 14:35 - 15:00 Update on ANS 2.8: Probabilistic Evaluation of External Flood 3C-3 Hazards for Nuclear Facilities Working Group Status Ray Schneider, Westinghouse 15:00 - 15:25 Qualitative PRA Insights from Operational Events of External Floods 3C-4 and Other Storm-Related Hazards Nathan Siu, Ian Gifford*, Zeechung (Gary) Wang, Meredith Carr and Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES 15:25 - 16:05 Towards External Flooding PRA Discussion Panel 3C-5 Andrew Miller, Jensen Hughes Michelle (Shelby) Bensi, University of Maryland Ray Schneider, Westinghouse Ian Gifford, NRC/RES Guest Panelist: Suzanne Denis, NRC/RES Guest Panelist: Jeremy Gaudron, EDF 16:05 - 16:25 Wrap-up Discussion 8