ML20147B083

Rev 4 to Evacuation Time Estimates for Facility Plume Exposure Pathway Epz

ML20147B083
Person / Time
Site:	Grand Gulf
Issue date:	03/31/1986
From:	SYSTEM ENERGY RESOURCES, INC.
To:
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ML16223A649	List: ML20147B083
References
RTR-NUREG-1150-2-V1-6.05 NUDOCS 8801150143
Download: ML20147B083 (81)

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APPENDIX E EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE GRAND GULF NUCLEAR STATION

-PLUME EXPOSURE PATHWAY EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE I March 1986 HISSISSIPPI PI & LIGHT COMPANY Jackson, ssissippi I

l 8801150143 880111 hDR ADOCK 05000416 PDR l

Rev. 4 3/86 l

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, TABLE OF CONTENTS l --

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. 1. INTRODUCTION E-1 1.1 Study Purpose E-1 1.2 Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) E-2 1.3 Sources of Data and General Assumptions E-4 1.4 Summary of Methodology E-7 1.5 Conditions Modeled E-ll

2. EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE AND SUB-AREAS E-13

3. POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATION E-18 -

3.1 General Methodology E-18

< 3.2 Permanent Residents E-19 3.3 Transient Populations E-21 3.4 Special Facilities Population E-25 3.5 Evacuation Analysis Area Population Totals E-28 4 THE EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK E-35 4.1 Network Definition E-35 4.2 Characterizing the Evacuation Network E-36

5. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY E-40 5.1 Evacuatjon Analysis Area E-40 5.2 Initial Notification E-40 5.3 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions E-41 5.4 Evacuation Simulation E-45 5.5 Evacuation Routing Designations E-49 914/8085C E-li Rev 4 3/86

__ _ _a

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) s-L Page

6. ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES E-55

7. ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TRAFFIC FLOW OPERATIONS E-60

8. ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENTS E-69 8.1 Evacuation Confirmation E-69 8.2 Potential Mitigating Measures E-69

9. RESPONSE LETTERS FROM: CLAIBORNE COUNTY CIVIL , ,

OEFENSE OFFICE, AND TENSAS PARISH OFFICE OF -

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS E-70

10. ROADWAY NETWORK DEFINITION AND CAPACITIES E-73 REFERENCES E-78 914/8085C E-lii Rev. 4 3/86

LIST OF FIGURES L

4 Page ,

Figure 1 Site Vicinity Map E-3 Figure 2 Grand Gulf Nuclear Station Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ E-5 Figure 3 NETVAC Simulation Flow Diagram E-10 Figure 4 Protective Action Areas Within the Grand Gulf EPZ E-15 Figure 5 Permanent Population Distribution Within the the Grand Gulf EPZ ,

E-20 Figure 6 Transient Population (Recreational and Work Force) Locations E-22 Figure 7 Location of Special Facilities Within the EPZ E-26 Figure 8 Evacuation Roadway Network E-37 Figure 9 Sample Field Data Recording Form E-39 Figure 10 Notification / Preparation / Mobilization Time Distributions E-42 Figure 11 Designated Evacuation Routings Within the EPZ E-53 Figure 12 Mass Care Reception Center Locations E-54 Figure 13 Vehicle Queueing Time Series E-61 Figure 14 Cumulative Vehicle Departures During a l Weekday Fair Weather Condition E-65 Figure 15 Cumulative Vehicle Departures During a Nighttime Fair Weather Condition E-66 Figure 16 Cumulative Vehicle Departures During a Weekend Fair Weather Condition E-67 Figure 17 Cumulative Vehicle Departures During a Weekday Adverse Weather Condition E-68 914/8085C E-iv Rev. 4 3/86

LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 Transient (Employee Work Force) Population E-23 Table 2 Transient (Recreational) Population E-24

. Table 3 Special Facilities Population E-27

. Table 4 Population Totals by Evacuation Analysis Area E-29

' Table 5 Primary Evacuation Routes E-51 Table 6 Evacuation Clear-Time Estimates E-56 914/8085C E-v Rev. 4 3/86

.l. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Study Purpose Evacuation time studies analyze the manner in which the population within the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) surrounding a nuclear power plant site would evacuate _during a radiological emergency. Evacuation time studies provide licensees and State and local governments site-specific information helpful to protective action decision-making. The studies estimate, for officials who would make protective action decisions, the time necessary to evacuate the EPZ, and identify instances in which unusual evacuation constraints exist.

Evacuation time estimate requirements were developed in -

the aftermath of the Three Mile Island accident. In November of 1980, the NRC and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) published a revi9ed version of NUREG-0654 entitled Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Resconse Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants (Reference 1). NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 requires that each nuclear power plant l'icensee's offsite emergency plan contain time estimates for evacuation within the Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ. Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 provides detailed guidance on what must be included in an evacuation

- time estimate study. In response to the revised NUREG-0654, Mississippi Power and Light Company (MP&L) retained HMM Associates (HMM) in 1981 to develop evacuation time estimates for the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station EPZ (later referred to as the Grand Gulf EPZ). The 1981 evacuation time estimate study -

(Reference 2) was incorporated in the offsite radiological emergency response plans.

• In 1985, MP&L retained HMM to revise the evacuation time estimates developed in 1981 using updated population data, Protective Action Area boundaries and evacuation routings.

This updated report will be provided to the NRC for its review, 914/8085C E-1 Rev. 4 3/86

and to State and Ccunty officials for their use in the event of an emergency.

The evacuation time estimates have been developed using existing (i.e., 1985) population data and the NETVAC computer simulation model. The NETVAC program was developed specifically to provide evacuation time estimates and related information for use in emergency planning. Evacuation times have been estimated for various areas, times and weather conditions, as suggested in Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654, Rev. 1.

- These evacuation times represent the times required for completing the following actions:

1. public notification;

2. preparation and mobilization; and

3. actual movement out of the EPZ (i.e., en-road travel time, including delays associated with vehicle queueing).

1.2 Site Location and Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ)

The Grand Gulf Nuclear Station is located in Claiborne County, Mississippi, approximately 5 miles northwest of Port Gibson and 25 miles southwest of Vicksburg. The plant site is located within close proximity to the eastern bank of the Mississippi River. A site vicinity map for the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station is included in Figure 1.

The EPZ baundaries encompass portions of Claiborne County in Mississippi and Tensas Parish in Louisiana. (Note: A small portion of Warren County, Mississippi, is located within the 10-mile EPZ, to the north of Claiborne County. However, since there are no permanent, transient or special facility populations associated with this small section of Warren County, it is not specifically cited throughout the remainder cf this report.) Due to the population centers in the towns of Newellton and St. Joseph in Tensas Parish, Louisiana, and their 914/8085C E-2 Rev. 4 3/86 i

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close proximity to the 10 mile-radius of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, these areas have teen included in the EPZ. Figure 2 illustrates the boundaries of the plume exposure pathway EPZ for the Grand Gulf Station si?.e.

Stcte and local governments in Mississippi and Louisiana have participated in preparing plans for emergencies at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station sita. Specific agencies which have been directly involved include Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, Claiborne County Civil Defense Office, Louisiana Office of Emergency Preparedness, Louisiana Nuclear Energy Division, and Tensas Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness.

1.3 Sources of Data and General Assumptions The following data sources were reviewed and assumptions '

made in order to develop the appropriate input data required for the computer simulation model used for the evacuation analysis:

o The evacuation time estimates presented herein represent the time required to evacuate the Grand Gulf EPZ and subareas within it, and include the time required for initial alert and notification.

o The evacuation will be conducted in conformance with State and County / Parish Radiological Emergency Response Plans.

o It is assumed that all persons within the EPZ will evacuate.

o Evacuation of each of the analysis zones within the EPZ will be considered complete after all vehicles are outside of the EPZ.

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l LEGEND ma ss am m an n ser sov= pay FIGURE 2 - GRAND GULF NUCLEAR STATION PLUME EXPOSURE PATHWAY EPZ 914/8085C E-5 Rev. 4 3/86

w o The general public will be' evacuated to evacuation l centers outside of the potential hazard area, o The auto-owning permanent population sector will evacuate from their places of residence. All auto-owning households having more than one vehicle will use their best available automobile for the evacuation (i.e. one vehicle per household).

Private transportation will be furnished for all non-auto owning households previously identified in both Claiborne County and Tensas Parish in a comprehensive demographic survey. This will be accomplished through pre-established plans to ride with a neighbor or coordinated efforts by the Claiborne County Civil Defense Office and the Tensas -

Parish Emergency Preparedness Office.

o It is assumed that existing lane utilization and traffic control would prevail during the course of the evacuation.

o Assumed notification, mobilization and preparation times have been developed for each population component and are presented in Section 5. These assumed times were based upon discussions with local emergency preparedness officials and a review of site-specific characteristics of the Grand Gulf EPZ area. Emergency preparedness officials from Claiborne County, Mississippi, and Tensas Parish, Louisiana, concur with these notification, mobilization and prep & ration times, o Roadway geometric and operational data were collected by HMM field crews during 1981, and updated in 1985. This included roadway section, intersection, and traffic control data.

914/6085C E-6 Rev. 4 3/86

o Roadway and intersection approach capacities were calculated by the NETVAC model using algorithms developed from the "Highway Capacity Manual" (Reference 3) and relationships identified in the "Interim Materials on Highway Capacity" (Reference 4).

o Population estimates (1985)<were developed from (1) data provided by MP&L by sector for the area within five miles of the plant and (2) demographic data collected by the Claiborne County Civil Defense Office and the Tensas Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness for each Protective Action Area within the EPZ.

o Adverse weather refers to sudden rainstorms that

• would reduce effective roadway capacity by 25 percent (Reference 5).

1.4 Summary of Methodology The evacuation time estimates developed for the Grand Gulf EPZ are based upon a time distribution of evacuation events, as opposed to a summation of sequential events. This time distribution methodology assumes that the various time components in an evacuation (i.e., the time associated with preparation, mobilization, etc.) overlap and occur within certain time ranges. The sequential methodology, on the other hand, assumes (hat each phase of the evacuation must be completed before the next one begins, and tends to over-estimate evacuation times. The time distribution approach (used for this study), although more complex than the sequential approach, is based upon more realistic assumptions, and hence it leads to more realistic evacuation times.

The computer simulation model used to perfcrm the time '

estimate procedure is referred to as NETVAC. The model was 914/8085C E-7 Rev. A 3/86

F-

• h developed specifically to provide evacuation clear time I estimates and related information for use in emergency planning.

The NETVAC program has the following characteristics which lud to its selection for use in this study:

o The model accounts for the detailed distribution of vehicle demand.

o The model considers fundamental physical and opera-tional characteristics of the evacuation road network.

o The model accounts for the dynamic characteristics of evacuation traffic flows.

o The model provides thorough documentation of results, o The model can readily address fair weather versus adverse weather conditions. ,

o The model can readily address evacuation scenarios occurring at different times of day.

o The model can readily address changes in population which would be likely to occur within the EPZ at different times of the week and at different times of year.

This approach was considered appropriate for the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station analysis since, in addition to the development of evacuation clear times, project support information related to emergency planiting could be provided, should a need exist. In addition, the roadway network and demand files, once established, can be used to assess the merits of various traffic management measures aimed at further developing an offective, site-specific evacuation plan.

The NETVAC program is a traffic simulation model which uses traffic flow relationships to calculate and record traffic densities, speeds, flows, queues, spill-backs and other relevant information throughout the evacuation process.

Traffic is first entered (loaded) at designated points (entry nodes) in the highway network. At every simulation interval, the model processes vehicles from links (road segments) entering an intersection to the links emanating from it 914/8085C E-8 Rev. A 3/86

(outbound links or evacuation routes). The model employs a

( sophisticated list processing method to represent the l evacuation as a series of links and nodes (intersections).

NETVAC includes a dynamic route selection feature whereby drivers' choice of outbound links, at every intersection, is based on two criteria:

1) The degree to which an outbound link leads away from the plant, or the direction of specific evacuation routings where such plans exist, and

2) The traffic conditions on the outbound links (i.e.,

travel speeds and presence of vehicle queueing or congestion).

The roadway and intersection approach capacities calculated by the NETVAC program are based upon data and -

relationships presented in the 1965 "Highway Capacity Manual" and the 1980 "Interim Materials on Highway Capacity." Due to the dynamic route assignment mechanism, approach capacities are-updated at each s'imulation interval to account for potential changing turning movements. The intersection control options which can be specified with NETVAC include intersections with traffic signals and priority control intersections (i.e.,

accounting for stop signs and yield signs).

The core of the NETVAC program is the simulation subroutine. This part of the program executes a given number of procedures at user-specified simulation intervals. The simulator includes two major logical units: the link pass and the node pass. The link pass calculates the number of vehicles that would reach the upstream node or join the queue there in a given simulation interval. The node pass calculates how many vehicles should be processed from each , the links entering a particular intersection (inbound links) to each of the outbound links. Figure 3 schematically represents the inter-relationship between the link pass and node pass simulation procedures. A more detailed description of the NETVAC program is dcscribed in Section 5.

914/8085C E-9 Rev. A 3/86

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FIGURE 3 - NETVAC SIMULATION FLOW DIAGRAM e)J11\gggqre g Rev. 4 3/86

1.5 Conditions Modeled Pursuant to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 guidance, evacuation time estimates have been prepared for several temporal, seasonal and weather conditions. The cases analyzed include weekday fair and adverse weather conditions, nighttime fair weather conditions, and weekend day fair weather conditions. The following assumptions were incorporated into the conditions modeled:

Weekday o Permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; o Hospitals, nursing homes and jails are full; o Schools are in session; ,

o Work places are fully staffed, o Grand Gulf Nuclear Station is at an estimated weekday level; o Recreational facilities are at typical summer / fall weekday levels.

Nighttime o Permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; o Hospitals, nursing homes and jails are full; o Day schools are closed; t

o Work places are at typical nighttime levels;

. o Grand Gulf Nuclear Station is at an estimated nighttime level; o Recreational facilities at summer / fall nighttime attendance levels.

Weekend o Permanent residents will evacuate from their place of residence; 914/8085C E-ll Rev. 4 3/86

v o Hospitals, nursing homes and jails are full; o Oay schools are closed; o Recreational facilities are at summer / fall

. .. -peak capacity-levels, o~ Grand Gulf Nuclear Station is at an

-estimated weekend level; o Work places are at typical weekend levels.

In addition, adverse-weather cases were ur'n for the weekday cases since thiv is the. limiting case.in bad weather.

An adverse-weather situation is assumed to be a thunderstorm condition. The: weekend case was not modeled for adverse weather since recreational facilities would not be at peak l

capacity under such weather conditions. To model adverse .

weather, it was assumed that all roads would operate at 75% of'*

their normal capacity.

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i 914/8085C E-12 Rev. 4 3/86

2. EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE AND SUB-AREAS I

In its requirements for evacuation time estimates NUREG-0654, Appendix 4, provides the following guidance:

"The sub-areas for which evacuation time estimates ara required must encompass the entire area within the plume exposure EPZ, Additionally, evacuation time estimates are also required for simultaneous evacuation of the entjre plume exposure pathway. The areas to be considered are as follows:

Radius Area about 2 miles four 900 sectors about 5 miles four 900 sectors about 10 miles (EPZ) four 900 sectors '

about 10 miles (EPZ) entire EPZ

. 4 When making estimates for the outer sectors, assume that .,

the inner adjacent sectors are being evacuated simultaneously. The boundaries of the sub-areas shall be e based upon the topography, same land factors as the EPZ, characteristics, accessnamely demographyl routes, and loca jurisdictions."

The Mississippi River provides a natural boundary within the EPZ, approximating a 180 0 division. This river also represents a physical boundary, since no vehicle crossings from Claiborne County (Mississippi) to Tensas Parish (Louisiana) exiat within the EPZ.

Based on these natural boundaries, Protective Action Areas were developed by local emergency preparedness officials in Claiborne County and Tensas Parish. These previously defined Protective Acti,on Areas were then used by HHH to establish evacuation zones approximating the areas listed in NUREG-0654, Appendix 4 One 0-2 mile case, two 0-5 mile cases, four 0-10 mile cases and one full EPZ were evaluated under different .

times and weather conditions. The two 0-5 mile cases in Tensas Parish were not evaluated since there is virtually no population within this area.

914/8085C E-13 Rev. 4 3/86

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The' Protective Action Areas included in each of the )

evacuation analysis areas analyzed are described below:  :

r Evacuation Analysis Area Protective Action Areas-1

1. 0-2 miles, 360 1 0 1,2A

2. 0-5 miles, 90 NE ,

3. 0-5 miles, 90 SE 1,3A,4A,5A  ;

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4. 0-10 miles, 90 NE 1,2A,28,7 0

5. 0-10 miles, 90 SE 1,3A,3B,4A,48,5A,58,6

[ 6. 0-10 miles, 90 NW 1,8,9 0

7. 0-10 miles, 90 SW 1,10,11

8. Entire EPZ All areas Figure 4 illustrates the Protective Action Area boundaries' and their resident population within the EPZ. Each of these areas has been identified by a number, as indicated on Figure 4, for analysis purposes. Following is a description of each of these areas:

o Protective Action Area 1 includes the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station. It is defined by the Mississipi River on the east, the Bayou Pierre and 3-mile radius on the south, local roads on the east and the Big Black River on the north.

o Protective Action Area 2A includes the area bounded by the Big Black River on the north, local roads on the east, the Bayou Pierre on the south and Route 61 on the east.

o Protective Action Area 2B is just east of Area 2A with Route 61 serving as the western boundary, Bayou Pierre as its southern boundary, and the 10-mile radius as its eastern ,

boundary. The Big Black River is to the north of the area. 3 t

o Protective Action Area 3A has the Bayou Pierre to the north, local roads to the east, and Little Bayou Pierre to r the south and weit. f L

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FIGURE 4 - PROTECTIVE ACTION AREAS WITHIN THE GRAND GULF EPZ Rey, 4 3/86 914/8085C E-15

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o Protective Action Area 3B is bounded on the north by the Bayou Pierre, on the west by local' roads, on the south by Little Bayou Pierre and on the east by the 10-mile ~ radius, o- Protective Action Area 4A includes the town of Port Gibson. The 3-mile radius is to the north, Widows Creek to the -

west, local roads to the south and the Little Bayou Pierre to

, the east. ,

I o Protective Action Area AB includes the area southwest of the Little Bayou Pierre, northwest of the 10-mile radius and east of Route 61 and local roads. ,

o Protective Action Area 5A is south of the Grand Gulf site and is bounded by the Bayou Pierre to the north and east, - '

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Widows Creek and Route 61 to the east and local roads to the ,

south, o Protective Action Area 58 is just south of Area 5A .

with Route 61 and local roads to the north, and the 10-mile  :

radius serving as the southern boundary. i o Protective Action Area 6 is located south of the f 10-mile radius, and includes Alcorn University. I i

o Protective Action Area 7 is north of the site bounded by the Big Black River, the Mississippi River and the 10-mile radius.

o Protective Action Area 8 is the area in Tensas .

Parish, Louisiana bounded on the north by the EPZ boundary, by  :

the area just west and south of Lake Joseph and by the Mississippi River on the east.

o Protective Action Area 9 includes the tcwn of Newellton and is the area just west of Area 8. It is bounded f

on the west by Route 65 and north by the EPZ boundary. [

914/8085C E-16 Rev. A 3/86

o Protecti.J Action; Area 10 is just south of Areas 8 and 9. It is bounded on the east and south by the Mississippi River and on the south and west by the western portion of Lake Bruin.

o Protective Action rea 11 includes the town of St.

Joseph. It has Lake Bruin as its northern boundary, the Mississippi River to the east and the EPZ boundary to the south and vest.

i 914/8085C E-17 Rev. A 3/86

- 3. POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATION P 3.1 General Methodology The development of vehicle demand estimates for-the Grand Gulf EPZ consisted of two primary steps. The first step was the determination of the number and distribution of the population to be evacuated. The second step was the determination of the appropriate number of vehicles required to evacuate each of the population sectors. Federal guidance c (NUREG-0654, Rev. 1) indicates that three population categories should be considered: permanent residents, transients (such as employees and visitors to recreational areas), and persons in special facilities (such as school and medical facilities, nursing homes, etc.). ,

The methodology used to develop the total population and vehicle demand estimates within the Grand Gulf EPZ incorporates intrinsic double-counting. For example, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the identified employees within the area and visitors to recreational areas are also permanent residents within the EPZ. In addition, school children, treated as an independent special facility category, are also included in the permanent population estimates. It should be noted that this double-counting of population, however, is done intentially to simulate traffic friction on the network due to travel home prior to the actual evacuation. In short, this

technique double counts a portion of the population, but is a means for taking into account anticipated vehicle friction on the evacuation aetwork.

In Sections 3.2, 3.3 and 3.4, totals for each population 0

category are presented for 22-1/2 sectors, at one-mile increments for the Grand Gulf EPZ. The population totals by evacuation case are summarized in Table 4 and Section 3.5.

l I l 914/8085C E-18 Rev. 4 3/86

3.2 Permanent Residents Permanent residents were defined as those persons having year-round residences within the Grand Gulf EPZ. Permanent population and housing unit estimates for the area were based upon two data sources: 1) survey data provided by Mississippi Power & Light for the area between zero and five miles of the plant, which was based on a door to do'or survey and summarized by sector, and 2) survey data provided by Claiborne County and Tensas Parish for each Protective Accion Area within the EPZ.'

The population between five and ten miles was also disaggregated by sector using the Protective Action Area population totals as controls. Figure 5 presents the permanent resident population distribution by sector.

Auto-Owning Permanent Population The number of permanent population households which have access to at least one automobile were identified in the 1985 Claiborne County and Tensas Parish demographic surveys. As previously indicated, it is assumed that those households owning more than one automobile will use their best auto to evacuate. Accordingly, the auto-owning, permanent population will evacuate at one vehicle per household. The use of this figure is consistent with e~tisting

. research (Reference 6) indicating the tendency of persons to evacuate, where possible, I

as a family unit. The average household occupancy rates for Claiborne County and Tensas Parish, as presented in the 1980 Census of Population and Housing Advance Report, were used for the purpose of estimating the number of vehicles associated with the auto-owning population.

• MP&L contracted with local emergency preparedness officials in 1984/1985 for the collection of various demographic data within the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ. The Claiborne County Civil Defense Office and the Tensas Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness coordinated these efforts for Claiborne County and Tensas Parish, respectively.

914/8085C E-19 /86 ev. f

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The Claiborne County and Tensas Parish demcgraphic studies also identified the number of permanent residents v3 +hout access to a private automobile. Present local emt 'ancy preparedness plans address the evacuation of this population sectcr. For Claiborne County, Mississippi, the present plans encourage ridesharing with a neighbor. If no transportation is readily available, however, it will be furnished througa coordinativn by the C1riborne County Civil Defense Office.

Lecal police and County sheriff vehicles would be used for this

' purpose. For the purpose of this evacuation time estimate study, it was assumed that this population sector within Claiborne County will be evacuated at an average of 2.5 persons per vehicle. -

In Tensas Parish, Louisiana, arrangements have been made with Madison Parish, whereby buses with drivers will report to St. Joseph and Newellton High Schools for transport. An occupancy rate of 25 persons per bus was assumed for the transport of non-auto owning residents in Tensas Parish. For the purposes of this evacuation study it was assumed that, operationally, buses are the equiva.' it of three private automobiles.

3.3 Transient Populations i

! The transient population component includes the recreational population (thore involved in hunting, fishing, and tou11st activities) and persons in major work places.

Updated transient population data was obtained from MP&L and local emergency preparedness officials. Figure 6 shows the locations of these transient populations. Descriptions of the populations at these facilities are indexed in Tables 1 and 2, for work places and recreational areas, respectively.

An automobile occupancy factor of 2.0 was assumed for the recreational transjent population to be evacuated. This factor was used subsequent to discussions with local emergency 914/8085C E-21 Rev. 4 3/86

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FIGURE 6 - TRANSIENT POPULATION (RECREATIONAL AWD l WORK FORCE) LOCATIONS 914/8085C E-22 Rev. A 3/86

TABLE 1 TRANSIENT (EM3LOYEE WORK FORCE) PCPULATION*

WORK FORCE PCPLLATION/ VEHICLE DEMAND DAY NIGHT WEEKEND Veh Veh Veh ENTRY FACILITY LCCATION Pop. Dem** Pop. Den ** Pop. Dam ** NODE ***

Claiborne County, Mississippi

1. Port Gibson Bank SE 5-6 25 (25) - - - - 80

2. Pickens Brotiier SSE 9-10 80 (80) - - - -

286 Lumber

3. Piggly Wiggly SE 5-6 35 (35) - - - -

80 Store

4. Beasly Timber Co. SE 5-6 30 (30) - - - -

80. .

5. Port Gibson Oil SE 5-6 65 (65) - - 65 (65) 80 idll

6. Grand Gulf Nuclear 1500 (802) 80 (80) 80 (80) 10 Station Subtotal 1735 (1037) 80 (80) 145 (145)

Tensas Parish, Louisiana l 7. Newe11 ton

! Elevator Co. WNW 12-13 25 (25) - - - - 15

8. LSU Experimental Station WSW 11-12 29 (29) - - ,- - 21

9. Tensas Parish Courthouse and Annex WSW 12-13 25 (25) - - - -

5 Subtotal ,

lli (79) 0 (0) 0 ~137T l Total 1814 (1116) 80 (80) 145 (145)

• Employment of 25 or more persons

• • Vehicle Demand

• • • Used for vehicle loading 914/8085C E-23 Rev. 4 3/86

TABLE 2 TRANSIEN' (RECREATIONAL) P(FULATION RECREATIONAL POPULATION / VEHICLE DEMAND DAY NIGHT WEEKEND Veh Veh Veh ENTRY FACILITY LOCATION Pop. Dem* Pop. Dem* Pop. Dem* NCOE *

• Claiborne County, Mississippi

10. Grand Gulf Military Park NNW 1-2 2 50 ( 12 5) 2 50 (125) 478 (239) 2

11. Warner YMCA Camp NE 3-4 100 (50) 100 (50) 125 (63) 32

12. Lake Claiborne Development and Recreation Area E 3-4 200 (100) 200 (100) 200 (100) 26 .

13. Hunting Camps several 580 (290) - - 580 (290) 20,96 ,

30

14. Fishing Camps several 60 (30) - - 60 (30) 2,6 Subtotal II96 (595) 3 ' (275) 1443 (722)

Tensas Parish, Louisiana

15. Lake Bruin State Park WSW 9-10 195 (98) 195 (98) 400 (200) 63

16. K . 0. A . W 12-13 50 (25) 50 (25) 100 (50) 53

17. Lake Bruin Country Club W 11-12 350 (175) 350 (175) 350 (175) 65

18. Newellton Country Club W 11-12 200 (100) 200 (100) 200 (100) 57 19 Hunting Camps ,

several 95 (48) - - 95 (48) 17,11 45

20. Fishing Camps several 140 (70) - -

140 (70) 17,11 45 Subtotal IU3U (>16) /y> T3W) 'IZ87 TE4TT (OTAL 2220 (1111) 1345 (6 73 ) 2728 (1365)

• Vehicle Demand: Automobile equivalent. .

• • Used for vehicle loading.

914/80850 E-24 Rev. A 3/86

j preparedness officials. The transient population numbers were i# based on peak seasonal usage of recreational facilities, per NUREG-0654, Rev. 1, Appendix 4 guidance.

An auto occupancy of 1.0 was used for the work-force transient populations with the exception of employees at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station. Employees at the site were assumed to evacuate at a weighted average of 1.9 persons per vehicle during a weekday to account for varying occupancy rates. During a weeknight and weekend, however, employees at the site are also assumed to evacuate at the rate of 1.0 person per vehicle.*

c Some double-counting may be inherent in these estimates since a portion of the identified employees and persons in recreational areas may also reside within the EPZ. However, this provides a means to simulate traffic conditions on the network due to persons traveling home prior to their actual evacuation ,

out of the EPZ.

?.4 Special Facilities Population The special facilities population within the Grand Gulf EPZ is comprised of schools, hospitals, nursing homes, and County (parish) jails. The locations of these special facilities are shown on Figure 7. Updated population estimates for these facilities, listed in Table 3, were provided by MP&L and local emergency preparedness officials.

. Consistent with current emergency preparedness plans, it was assumed that all students would be evacuated by bus directly from the schools to reception centers. For Alcorn University, it was assumed that pupils and f aculty would evacuate at an average of 3.0 persons per vehicle.

• The vehicle occupancy rates for site employees were calculated based on plant population and vehicle demand figures provided to HMM by MP&L.

914/8085C E-25 Rev. 4 3/86

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l Rev. 4 3/86

( 914/8085C E-26 l

i TABLE 3 SPECIAL FACILITIES PCRJLATION, j TRANSIENT PCPULATION/ VEHICLE DEMANO DAY NIGHT WEEKEND Veh Veh Veh ENTRY FACILITY LOCATION Pop. Dem* Pop. Dem* Pop. Dem* N00E**

Mississippi

1. Port Gibson High SE 5-6 392 (47) - - - - 18 School

2. Addison Jr._High School SE 4-5 967 (117) - - - - 4

-3. Richardson School SE 4-5 534 (64) - - - - 4

4. Chamberlain-Hunt SE 5-6 102 (12) 102 (12) 102 (12) 18 Academy

5. Claiborne Educa-tion Foundation SE 5-6 138 _ (17) - - - - 18 -

6. Alcorn State SSW 10-11 1900 (633)- 1900 (633) 1900 (633) 36 -

University

7. Claiborne County SE 5-6 32 (11) 32 (11) 32 (11) 18 Hospital

8. Claiborne County SE 5-6 30 (10) 30 (10)- 30 (10) 18 Jail Subtotal 4095 (911) 2064 (6C6)' 2064 (666)

Louisiana

9. Davidson High #SW 12-13 261 (33) - - - -

5 School

10. Newellton High WNW 12-13 457 (55) - - - - 13 l School

11. Newellton (Routh Wood)

Elementary School WNW 12-13 281 (35) - - - - 13

12. St. Charles Hospital of Tensas Parish WNW 12-13 14 (5) 14 (5) 14 (5) 13 r ,

13. St. Charles Nursing Home (Newellton) WNW 12-13 56 (19) 56 (19) 56 (19) 13

14. Tensas Parish ,

Jail WSW 13-14 10 (4) '10 (4) 10 (4) 23

15. Tensas Academy (St. Joseph) WSW 13-14 307 (38) - - - - 23

16. Tensas Elementary School (St. Joseph) WSW 13-14 232 (28) - - - -

23 Subtotal T616 (217) 80 (28) 80 (28)

Total 5713 (1128) 2144 (694) 2144 (694)

• iehicle Demand: Automooile equivalent, assuming 1 bus = 3 automobiles.

• • Used for vehicle loading.

914/8085C E-27 Rev. A 3/86  ;

)

I 3.5 Evacuation Analysis Area Population Totals Table 4 summarizes the population totals for'each of the previously identified Evacuation Analysis Areas. A brief description of the population within each of these areas is presented below:

Evacuation Analysis Area 1 (0-2 miles, 360 0): Protective Action Area 1 This area includes all of the area within Protective Action Area 1. There are 165 permanent residents within this area. The transient population consists of the plant employees and persons at the Grand Gulf Military Park and fishing camps.

0 Evacuation Analysis Area 2 (0-5 miles, 90 NE): Protective _,

Action Areas 1 & 2A Analysis Area 2 includes the trea covered by Area 1 in addition to Area 2A. There are a total of 457 permanent residents within the area, as well as the plant employees and 863 persons in recreational areas during a peak weekend.

Evacuation Analysis Area 3 (0-5 miles, 90 0 SE): Protective Action Areas 1, 3A, AA & 5A Analysis Area 3 includes the town of Port Gibson. There are 3,074 residents in this area, 2,195 persons in special facilities, 928 weekend recreational area users, and 1,735 employees during a weekday, including the 1,500 plant employees.

Evacuation Analysis Area 4 (0-10 miles, 90 0 NE):

Protective Action Areas 1, 2A, 2B & 7 Analysis Area 4 includes 611 permanent residents, 1,053 ,

persons at various parks and camps on a peak weekend, and the plant employees.

914/8085C E-28 Rev. A 3/86

f TAa.E 4 i

POPULATION TOTALS BY EVACUATION ANALYSIS AREA l ANALYSIS AREA 1 l

-1 (Protective Action Area 1) l I l l

________________________ ____________________________________________________l l 1 1 I l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend l Permanent Resident 165 165 165 lSpecial Facilities 0 0 0 l 1,500 80 80 fWorkForce l Recreational 310 250 538 l lTGTAL POPULATION 1,975 495 783

, 1 ANALYSIS AREA 2 l (Protective Action Areas 1 & 2A) l I I I l_____________________________________________________________________________l l l 1 l l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend l

! I P 457 457 457 l ermanent Resident l lSpecial Facilities 0 0 0 l 1,500 80 80 l Work Force f l Recreational 610 _5_50 863 ITOTAL POPULATION 2,567 1,087 1,400 l c

914/8085C E-29 Rev. A 3/86

TABLE 4 (continued)

{ POPULATION TOTALS BY EVACUATION ANALYSIS AREA I ANALYSIS AREA 3 l l (Protective Action Areas 1, 3A, 4A & SA)

I l I l_____________________________________________________________________________l l l l l l Population Category, Weekday, Weeknight Weekend l Permanent Resident 3,074 3,074 3,074 ISpecial Facilities 2,195 164 164 l Work Force 1,735 80 145 l Recreational 700 250 928 l l

l TOTAL POPULATION 7,704 3,522 4,265  ;

l ANALYSIS AREA 4 l l (Protective Action Areas 1, 2A, 28 & 7) l l l l_____________________________________________________________________________l l l l l l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend l Permanent Resident 611 611 611 ISpecial Facilities 0 0 0 1,500 80 80 lWorkForce , [

l Recreational 800 550 1,053 i I I l TOTAL POPULATION 2,911 1,241 1,744 I 914/8085C E-30 Rev. 4 3/86

/

TABLE 4 (continued)

$ POPULATION TOTALS BY EVACUATION ANALYSIS AREA l ANALYSIS AREA 5 l l (Protective Action Areas 1, 3A, 3B, 4A, 48, 5A, 58 & 6) l l l 1 l l_________________________________________________________.___________________l 1

l l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend ,

Permanent Resident 4,235 4,235 4,235 ISpecial Facilities 4,095 2,064 2,064 l l

l Work Force 1,735 80 145 l Recreational 700 250 928 I

l TOTAL POPULATION 10,765 6,629 7,372 l __________________________________________________________.__________________

L ANALYSIS AREA 6 (Protective Action Areas 1, 8 & 9) l l_____________________________________________________________________________l l l l l l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend l l 1,994 1,994 1,994 l Permanent Resident ISpecial Facilities 808 70 70 l 1 l 1,525 80 80  ;

l Work Force Recreational 545 0 773 l l

l TOTAL POPULATION 4,872 2,144 2,917 l 1

1 l

l l l

i l

l 914/8085C E-31 Rev. 4 3/86

TABLE 4 (continued)

POPULATION TOTALS BY EVACUATION ANALYSIS ARES ANALYSIS AREA 7 l

, (Protective Action Areas 1,10 & 11) l l

1

_____________________________________________________________________________l 1

l-Population Category Weekday Weaknight Weekend I Permanent Resident 2,357 2,357 2,357 ISpecial Facilities 810 10 10 l Work Force 1,554 80 80 l Recreational -1,105 1,045 1,588 l l

TOTAL POPULATION 5,826 3,492 4,035 l ANALYSIS AREA 8 I (All Protective Action Areas) i l l I

l_____________________________________________________________________________l l l 1 I l Population Category Weekday Weeknight Weekend l l

l Permanent Resident 8,702 8,702 8,702 l

ISpecial Facilities 5,713 2,144 2,144 i I I 1,814 80 145 l Work Force l l Recreational 2,220 1,345 2.728 I I I ITOTAL POPULATION 18,449 12,271 13,719 l i

l l

914/8085C E-32 Rev. 4 3/86

Evacuation Analysis Area 5 (0-10 miles, 90 U SE):

Protective Action Areas 1, 3A, 3B, t 4A, 48, 5A & 58 The areas south and southwest of the site are included in Analysis Area.5. There are 4,235 permanent residents within this area. The transient population includes 1,735 workers during a weekday, and 926 recreational area users on a weekend. The special facility population includes 2,195 persons. Also included in this case is Alcorn University with a total population of 1,900.

Evacuation Analysis Area 6 (0-10 miles, 90 0 NW): Protective Action Areas 1, 8&9 Analysis Area 6 includes the area northwest of the site in -

Tensas Parish, Louisiana. There are 1,994 persons residing within the area, which includes the town of Newellton. In addition to the plant there are 25 other employees. There are 773 persons at parks and camps within the area during a weekend and 808 persons at special facilities during a weekday.

Evacuation Analysis Area 7 (0-10 miles, 90 SW):

Protective Action Areas 1, 10 & 11 Analysis Area 7 includes the area southwest of the site in Tensas Parish, including the town of St. Joseph. There are 2,357 permanent residents in this area. In addition to the plant employees, there are 54 other employees. There are 1,588 persons at parks and camps on a weekend within the area and 810 persons in special facilities on a weekday.

Evacuation Analysis Area 8 (Full EPZ): All Protective Action Areas This area includes the area covered by the entire EPZ.

The peak population within the EPZ would occur on a weekday, 914/8085C E-33 Rev. 4 3/86

I l

. which would realize maximum work force and special facility population levels. Although populations associated with f

recreational activities would increase on weekends, the net total EPZ population resulting from_ lower work force and school attendanc'e levels would be less than the weekday condition.

There are approximately 8,702 permanent residents within the Grand Gulf EPZ. During a weekday, the population at special facilities (including Alcorn University) totals 5,713. The peak work force population is 1,814, which would occur on a weekday, while the peak recreational population is 2,728, which would occur on a weekend.

The peak weekday population totals approximately 18,449 persons. The maximum population for a nighttime period is estimated to be 12,271 persons. For a weekend period when recreational activities would be at their peak, a total EPZ population of 13,719 persons is estimated.

t 914/8085C E-34 Rev. 4 3/86

i.

4. THE EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK 4.1 Network Definition In order to estimate evacuation times, an evaluation of the roadway network likely to be used by departing vehicles was undertaken in 1981 and updated in 1985. In defining the evacuation roadway network, HMM relied heavily on three sources of information.

1) The evacuation routes described in the existing county and parish radiological emergency response plans,

2) County, state, local and USGS maps of the EPZ area, and

3) Discussions with local emergency preparedness officials.

Based on these data, HMM selected a comprehensive evacuation network to be used for evacuation simulation modeling. The traffic network elements considered in the evacuation modeling consist of the major streets and intersections within the EPZ.

.The major streets include roadways of the following classifications.

1) State Highways as characterized by continuity of travel; connecting business, population, or major recreation areas, and traffic controls and geometric designs which enhance traffic flow and safety.

2) Collector Streets. Links between residential areas served by local roads and arterial streets. These are l characte.'ized by lower design standards and frequent stop*s at minor intersections.

l The smaller lo al residential roadways are not specifically l

evaluated as part or the model simulation, but are taken into j account as part of the loading process.

1 914/8065C E-35 Rev. A 3/86

In addition to the roadways, the evacuation network

1. includes the intersections of major streets. The intersections are particularly important, since the ability of intersections to handle traffic is the major capacity constraint during an evacuation.

For the purpose of identification and for subsequently calculating evacuation times, the network has been coded into a system of links (roadway sections) and nodes (intersections).

A total of 91 nodes, representing the intersections, have been included in the network. These nodes have been given numerical I

identifier codes. A total of 100 links, representing the actual evacuation segments, are included in the network. The links are identified by the numbers of the upstream and downstream nodes. Therefore, link 202-212 is the link upon which evacuees travel from node #202 to node #212. -

"Entry" links and nodes are the mechanisms used to load evacuating vehicles onto the evacuation network. For modeling purposes, all automobiles are assumed to "enter" the network at entry nodes (i.e., entry nodes are used as surrogates for all the parking lots, driveways, etc., from which the evacuating automobiles originate).

Once carried through the internal evacuation network by the simulation process, the vehicles are simulated to leave the internal network at "exit nodes". Exit nodes are placed on the evacuation routes that depart the EPZ. They are generally

located along the perimeter of the EPZ. The exit nodes are

~

identified by 800 series rumbers.

l The evacuation network is shown in Figure 8. The figure shows the locations and number codes for each link and node in the network.

4.2 Characterizing the Evacuation Network After definin0 and mapping the links and nodes included in the evacuation roadway network, both physical and operational l characteristics of the system were inventoried. Using both l

914/8085C E-36 Rev. 4 3/86

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field studies and available maps, the geometric descriptions for each component of the network were compiled. Figure 9 is an example of the field data sheet used to compile the descriptive data for each link and node in the network. This field data included the number of lanes, the lane widths, shoulder widths, distances to obstructions, grade, cruise speeds and other data necessary to calculate the traffic capacity of each link in the system. Link lengths were measured from available maps. Traffic capacity information for each intersection (or node) in the network was also collected.

The data sheet in Figure 9 was also used to record intersection data such as approach widths, the presence of on-street parking on or near intersections, traffic signals, intersection geometrics, stop signs, yield signs, and other kinds of traffic control that would be significant in an evacuation network analysis.

The data from these efforts were coded and input to the NETVAC model. The model, in turn, provided a listing of the evacuation roadway network and its characteristics. The network listing describes the geometric characteristics of each link in the network. The listing also describes the possible turning movements from each node and the traffic capacity of each' link in the network (vehicles per hour that can be accommodated on each link during an evacuation). The listing of geometric characteristics and capacities is provided by the preprocessor for the NETVAC computer model prior to the actual evacuation simulation calculations. The network listing is attached as Section 10 of this report.

914/8085C E-38 Rev. 4 3/86 l

1 I. 7 r -

PErWORX OArA KDE f Intersecting Readesys t+et Joe No.

LI* TO L I* TO Lim TO LI* . TO Link Data Link Data Link Data Link Data Dist to O'J. Oist to 00. Oist to 00.

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1. 1 anes # 1 anes f 1snes f lanes L-type L-type L-type L-type Posted Sp. Posted Sp.

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r Acoroach Data Acoroach Data Accrosen Cata Acoroaen Osta App. width App. width App. width Apo. width , Priority Priority Priority Priority Parking Parking Parking Parking A-Type A-Type A-Type A-Type 01aoram Intersection Below. Indicatinct a turning movements; e traffic control (pnasing and green times if signelized); -

a reacvay approaches (upstream nodes);

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FIGURE 9 - SAMPLE FIELO DATA RECORDING FORM 914/8085C E-39 Rev. 4 3/86

5. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY 5.1 Evacuation Analysis Areas Pursuant to NUREG-0654, Rev. 1 guidance, evacuation time estimates have been prepared for various geographic areas within the Grand Gulf EPZ, and for the entire EPZ. The evacuation analysis areas were described in Section 2 and are listed below:

Analysis Arda Sector / Distance Protective Action Area (s)

1. 3600, 0-2 miles 1

2. 90 0 NE, 0-5 miles 1, 2A

3. 900 SE, 0-5 miles 1, 3 A , 4A, 5A

4. 900 NE, 0-10 miles 1, 2 A , 2 B , 7

5. 900 SE, 0-10 miles 1, 3 A , 3B, 4A, 48, 5A, 586 ~

6. 900 NW, 0-10 miles 1, 8, 9

7. 900 SW, 0=10 miles 1, 10 11

8. Entire EPZ A1g Time estimates have been prepared for a general evacuation scenario for each of these analysis areas for (1) Week Day Fair Weather Conditions, (2) Week Night Fair Weather Conditions, (3)

Weekend Fair Weather Conditions, and (4) Week Day Adverse Weather Conditions.

5.2 Initial Notification The EPZ surrounding the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station has an alerting and notification system design consistent with NUREG-0654 Rev.* 1 guidelines. In the even? of the need to evacuate, this system will be used to aler* ine population at risk to turn on their radios and television sets. For the purposes of this study, it was assumeo that notification messages will commence on the designated television and radio stations virtually immediately, and that within 15 minutes the ,

population within 10 miles of the plant will have received an informational or instructional message. The message will 914/8085C E-40 Hev. 4 3/86

. . ~ .

contain protective action recommendations and, if necessary, will describe the need to evacuate, the evacuation routes, and f

the. reception center locations.

If evacuation.is deemed necessary, the timing of the order to evacuate and notification measures will be controlled by the

< State and local emergency preparedness officials. They may choose to alert and mobilize an emergency response work force to control and expedite evacuation prior to the evacuation order.

e 5.3 Evacuation Preparation Times and Departure Distributions It is assumed that no vehicles will begin to evacuate during the 15-minute initial notification period. Network loading distribution assumptions for the permanent population, transient population, and special facilities are described below and summarized in Figure 10.

Permanent Population (Auto-owning)

Permanent residents with access to automobiles will take varying amounts of time to begin evacuating. Some perso..s will leave as quickly as possible; most will take some time to prepare, pack valuables and clothes and then depart; and some will take added time to secure farms and property before departing. In addition, actual departing and preparation times may vary according to the perceived severity of a particular evacuation order.

Based upon, discussions with local emergency preparedness officials, it was assumed that there would be a one-hour period over which the permanent residents from automowning households would begin to evacuate. That is, permanent population households with access to automobiles would begin to evacuate l

l between T=15 minutes and T=75 minutes.

l 914/8085C E-41 Rev. 4 3/86 l

N

$ NOTIFICATION / PREPARATION / MOBILIZATION TIME DISTRIBUTIONS 8

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FIGURE 10 - NOTIFICATION /PREPAR' ATION / MOBILIZATION TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

t Permanent Population (Transport-dependent) i f

Within Tensas Parish, Louisiana, the Newellton ano St.

Joseph High Schools have baen designated as the meeting centers for the transport-dependent population. For Claiborne County, Mississippi, these areas have not yet been designated.

However, assumed reception areas were developed for the transport-dependent within Claiborne County based upon the actual locations of these transport-dependent households. It

. was assumed that local police and county sheriff vehicles would be used to evacuate this population component within Claiborne County. For the permanent population households without access to automobiles it was assumed that, subsequent to the 15-minute initial notification period, 60 minutes would be required for preparation and up to an additional 60 minutes would be needed ,"

to mobilize (i.e., meet at pre-determined pick-up facilities).

Accordingly, the transport-dependent permanent population will begin to evacuate between T=75 minutes and T=135 minutes.

Transient Population (Recreational)

It is assumed that preparation and departure times associated with the recreational transient population would be similar to those experienced by the permanent, auto-owning population. After discussions with local emergency preparedness officials, it was determined that some of the population associated with fishing, hunting, camping, etc.

activities may prepare ano evacuate at a fast rate; others may take up to an bour to begin to evacuate. Accordingly, it was assumed that the recreational transient population would begin to evacuate at a constant rate for a 60-minute period, subsequent to initial notification (i.e., vehicles would enter the evacuation network between T=15 minutes and T=75 minutes).

914/8085C E-43 Rev. 4 3/86

Transient Population (Work Force)

It was assumed that the work force would receive initial notification promptly. It was also assumed that the large majority of the work force would be released expeditiously.

However, additional preparation times may be realized by some employees who have to secure their businesses prior to evacuating. Discussions with local emergency preparedness officials indicate that a maximum of 45 minutes may be needed before some of the work force can actually evacuate.

Therefore, it was assumed that the work force departures will be unifcrmly distributed over a 45-minute period, subsequent to initial notification (i.e., between T=15 minutes and T=60 minutes).

Special Facilities All schools within the EPZ will receive notification by the Tone Alert System. With the exception of the Chamberlain-Hunt Military Academy, the Claiborne County Education Foundation and Alcorn University in Mississippi, all students will evacuate by bus to designated Mass Care Reception Centers. Those students at the Chamberlain-Hunt Military Academy and the Claiborne County Education Foundation who walk to school will return home prior to evacuation. All boarding students at these two facilities will be bussed to a Mass Care Reception Center in Hazlehurst, Mississippi. All Alcorn University students will evacuate via private automobiles.

It was assumed that other special f acilities (i.e. ,

hospitals, nursing homes, etc.) within the EPZ would also receive initial notification promptly. Subsequent to discussion with local emergency preparedness officials, it was determined that special facility preparation times may approach 45 minutes. Consequently, it was assumed that these special facility departures will also be uniformly distributed over a 45-minute period, subsequent to initial notificaton.

914/8085C E-44 Rev. 4 3/86

5.4 Evacuation Simulation Evacuations were simulated using the population and vehicle demand distribution data, evacuation network data, and evacuation prepa, ration and departure time distribution assumptions discussed in previous sections of this report. The actual simulated evacuations were performed using the NETVAC computer program. The following describes the general structure of the NETVAC model and three cf its major features:

the dynamic route selection, the priority treatment of flow at intersections not having traffic signals, and the roadway and intersection capacity calculations.

General Structure NETVAC is organized in four basic units (procedures): thr.

main program, the data procedure, the preprocessor, and the simulator. This section briefly explains the functions of each of these units. The main program controls the entire execution. It starts by calling on the data procedure, which reads in the data and the execution instructions, then calls in the preprocessor which performs some preliminary capacity calculations. Next, the main program controls the simulation itself and the reporting of the network conditions at specified intervals including the plotting. This program also controls the rest of the reports and the length of the simulation by terminating the program once the network is empty (or after a specified time).

The data procedure reads in the network, the parameters and the options to be used in the simulation. The data procedure performs a set of checks on the network to ensure connectivity and validity. It also performs a set of checks on the input data to identify coding errors. The data procedure also produces a set of warnings if unlikely (but possible) situations are encountered. ,

914/8085C E-45 Rev. 4 3/86

The preprocessor procedure converts the physical description of each link into measures of capacity, speed and dencity. For cach specified type of link, the preprocessor computes two types of capacity:

o section capacity - the capacity along the link regardless of downstream intersection restrictions; and o approach capacity - the capacity of the link to handle vehicles approaching the downstream intersection.

Section capacities are associated with highway sections whereas the traffic flow through intersections is controlled by

~

the approach capacity. NETVAC computes both capacities since they serve different purposes. The section capacity serves as an upper bound on the flow that can move along a link, restricting the number of vehicles that will reach the intersection during a simulation interval and the number of vehicles that can be loaded onto a link from the intersection.

The approach capacity, on the other hand, limits the number of cars that can actually move through the intersection. Vehicles that reach the intersection but cannot move through it are assigned to a queue.

The NETVAC simulator includes two separa'. ,r adures, the link pass and the node pass. The link pass mdles Ux clow on the links while the node pass handles the tr s r er or r ow from link to link.

Dynamic Route Selection NETVAC does not use a pre-specified set of turning movements at each intersection with no regard to specified evacuation routing plans. Instead, the turning movements are determined at each simulation interval as a function of the changing traffic conditions and directionality of the links (i.e., the specific evacuation routing plans). Drivers 914/8085C E-46 Rev. A 3/86

t approaching ar, intersection are assumed to make a choice of outbound (away from the intersection) links based or how fast this uutbound link can get them to safety. This, in turn, is a function of the direction of the outbound links (away from the n'iclear plant or hazard area) and the traf fic conditions on the out5ound links.

The route selection procedure used in NETVAC reflects the two above-mentioned choice criteria through a user-supplied "preference factor" which is specified for each link and the speeds on each of the outbound links. In order to facilitate the explanation of the route choice mechanism, let PF j denote the preference factor for the j-th outbound link at some intersection. In other words, the relative 'a priori' preference of link j is PFj/EPF k k where the sum goes over all the links (k's) emanating out of the node under consideration (including j). The choice probability, or the -

share of drivers choosing an outbound link j out of a given intersection at (simulated) time t, P)(t), is determined as a function of the preference factors and the speeds on all the

. outbound links as:

P j (t) = j*U(j } ,

Ik PF R

x Uk (t) where U j (t) is the speed on link j at time t.

The Priority Treatment Even under evacuation conditions, it can be expected that traffic approachinq an intersection without traffic signals from certain links would have the right of way over incoming traffic from lower priority approaches. Since it is not clear that such priority would correspond to the existing intersection controls, the input to NETVAC includes a .

User-specified link priority parameter. This is a binary parameter indicating primary or secondary priority of a link.

914/8085C E-47 Rev. 4 3/86

3 The volume of vehicles being processed (at every 4 intersection and at each simulation interval) and transferred from inbound to outbound links is subject to several constraints which determine the effective capacity of the intersection. During the simulation, traffic coming in from all primary priority links is assigned to the intersection first, subject only to the interrection capacity constraints.

Lower priority traffic, on the otner hand, is restricted by both the capacity of the intersection and the effect of the higher priority traffic.

The capacity of the secondary priority approaches is a function of the gap acceptance behavior of the minor approach drivers and the headway distribution in the primary approaches' flow. In order to model the capacity of secondary priority approaches, a capacity allocation problem procedure is utilized. The secondary priority approaches emit traffic only under one of the following conditions: first, if there is ,

residual intersection capacity from the primary priority traffic, flow can be emitted into the intersection from the secondary priority road subject to the residual capacity constraint. Second, if the residual capacity is zero, NETVAC provides some small capacity for the lower priority approaches to allow for "sneak-in" effects.

Note that the priority treatment applies only to intersections without traffic s.tgnals and that both types of approaches (prir.iary and seconda::y priority) are treated identically in the model in all respects except for the added constraint on :he flow from secondary priority approaches.

Capacity Calculations The capacity of a transportation facility is the maximum flow that can go through the facility. NETVAC determines capacity in two stages: first, the preprocessor assigns a ,

section capacity and an approach capacity to each link in the network. Second, approach capacities are updated continuously, 9J4/8085C E-48 Rev 4 3/86

-throughout the simulation as changing turning movements affect k the maximum volume of traffic processed along each link into I

its downstream intersection.

The capacity calculations are based on the Highway Research Board's "Highway Capacity Manual." Following this reference, the section capacity is calculated in the preprocessor for links with and without physical separation between opposing directions while the approach capacity is calculated as a function of the physical conditions (width, parking, turning pockets, etc.), environmental conditions (area type, peak hour and load factors), traffic characteristics (traffic mix and percentage of turning movements), and approach type.

The capacity of the 1-th approach coming into an intersection at simulation interval t, C (t) is given by: ,

f C g (t) = C 1

x AL(t) x AR(t) where C g is the standard capacity of link i calculated by the preprocessor and AL(t) and AR(t) are the correction factors for lef t and right turning movenients, respectively. These correction factors are a function of the percent of turning traffic, the approach width, and parking allowance, as suggested by the HCM. These factors do not apply when the turning traffic is using special turning lanes or turning pockets.

5.5 Evacuation Routing Designations The modeling of evacuation routings was designed to be

! consistent witn the county and parish offsite radiological emergency response plans. It was assumed that the evacuation

! instructions in the emergency plans and the traffic control measures suggested in the plans would be implemented.

l 914/8085C E-49 Rev. 4 3/86 l

l

'l 1

The primary evacuation routings were developed so as to perr.it a general radial travel pattern away from the plant, l tov,ard the designated Mass-Care Reception Centers. These  !

i

.etacuation' routes are summarized in Table 5, and illustrated in Figure 11. The locations of the designated Hass Care Reception Centers, in relation to the Grand Gulf EPZ, are presented in Figure 12. 'This figure also identifies concentric 5-mile radii, out to a distance of 50 miles from the Grand Gulf Plant.

4 1

j 914/8085C E-50 Rev. 4 3/86

mm. - - -

TABLE 5 PRIMARY E9ACUATTON ROUTES MIS 5ISSIPPI Protective Action County Area __ Name Primary Evacuation Routes Shelter Location Claiborne 1 Grand Gulf U.S. Highway 61 north Warren Central to Vicksburg Senior H.S.

Warren Central Junior H.S.

Vicksburg, MS Claiborne 2A, 2B Kennison/ U.S. Highway 61 north Warren Central Willows and Mississippi Route 462 Senior P.S.

east to Vicksburg Warren Central Junior H.S.

Vicksburg, MS Claibornr. 3A, 3B Between Little Mississippi Route 18 west Utica Junior Collegt Bayou Pierre to Utica Institute, MS and Bayou -(Hinds County) Utica Consolidated Pierre School Utica, MS Claiborne AA Port Gibson Mississippi Route 547 east Hazlehurst North to Hazlehurst Campus Elem. School (Copiah County) Hazlehurst South Campus Elem. Sctcol Hazlehurst, MS Claiborne 48 Between Gordon Mississippi Route 547 east Hazlehurst North and Little te Hazlehurst Campus Elem. School Bayon Pierre (Ocpiah County) Hazlehurst South Campus Elem. School Hazlehurst, MS Claiborne 5A Westside Mississippi Route 552 North Natchez south to U.S. Highway 61 Adams H.S.

south to Natchez South Natchez Adams H.S.

Natchez, MS Claiborne 58 Gordon U.S. Highway 61 south to North Natchez Natchez Adams H.S.

South Natchez Adams H.S.

Natchez, MS l

Claiborne 6 Alcorn State Mississippi Route 552 North Natchez University south to U.S. Higtmay 61 Adams H.S.

I south to Natchez South Natchez Adams H.S.

Natchez, MS Claibcrne 7 North of U.S. Highway 61 north Warren Central Big Black to Vicksburg Senior H.S.

River Warren Central Junior H.S.

Vicksburg, MS 914/8085C E-51 Rev. 4 3/86 l ,

~__ s.

TAELE 5 PRIMARY EVACUATION ROUTES (Continued)

LOUISIANA Protective -

f. Action County Area Name Primary Evacuation Routes Shelter Location l.

Tensas 8 East Bank of Louisiana Route 608 north, Tallulah H.S.

Lake St. Joseph to Louisiana 605 north Tallulah, LA

. and east of at Balmoral to U.S. Highway Newellton 65 north at Sanerset, to Tallulah, LA.

West Bank of Louisiana Route 608 west, Tallulah H.S.

Lake St. Joseph to Louisiana Route 605 Tallulah, LA north to Balmoral, continue on Louisiana Route 605 north to U.S.

Highway 65 north at Somerset, to Tallulah, LA Tensas 9 East of Louisiana Louisiana Route 608 west, Tallulah H.S.

Route 605 to Louisiana Route 605 Tallulah, LA north at Balmoral, to U.S. Highway 65 north at Somerset, to Tallulah, LA .

West of Louisiana West to U.S. Highway 65 Tallulah H.S.

Route 605, includ- nortn, to Tallulah, LA Tallulah, LA ing Newellton East of Louisiana Louisiana Route 887 west, Tallulah H.S.

Route 605 includ- to Louisiana Route 605 Tallulah, LA ing Newellton north to Balmoral, continue e Louisiana Route 605 north to U.S.

Highway 65 north at Somerset, to Tallulah, LA Tensas 10 Outside of Louisiana Route 604 north, Ferriday H.S.

Lake Bruin to Louisiana Route 605 Ferriday, LA

- west, to U.S. Highway 65 south to Ferriday, LA.

Inside of Louisiana Route 606 south Ferriday H.S.

, Lake Bruin to Louisiana Route 604 Ferriday, LA south, to Louisiana Route 605 south, to Louisiana Route 128 west to U.S.

Highway 65 south to Ferriday, LA.

Tensas 11 Outside of Louisiana Route 605 north, Ferriday H.S.

Lake Bnjin to Louisiana Route 605 Ferriday, LA '

west, to U.S. Highway 65 south, to Ferriday, LA.

i St. Joseph Area Louisiana Route 128 west, Ferriday H.S.

to U.S. Highway 65 south, Ferriday, LA to Ferriday, LA.

914/8085C E-52 Rev. 4 3/86

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l m a m m as as fez sovaoaar FIGURE 11 - DESIGNATED EVACUATION ROUTINGS WITHIN THE EPZ l

914/8085C E-53 Rev. 4 3/86 l

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FIGURE 12 - MASS CARE RECEPTION CENTER LOCATIONS 1

914/8085C E-54 Rev. 4 3/86 1

6. ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES Evacuation time estimates for_each of the evacuation analysis areas are presented in Table 6. These estimates represent the times required to clear each of the analysis areas, including the time required for initial notification. As previously indicated, the various evacuation scenarios represent peak populations which would occur during summer or fall periods. Th'e evacuation times, however, would also-be representative.of early spring and winter conditions since the preparation time associated with the transport-dependent permanent population is the primary factor influencing the total EPZ evacuation time.

It is assumed that any home-to-work travel within the EPZ takes place during the previously identified mobilization and preparation periods. It is also assumed that the actual evacuation begins with the departures from the school, workplace,

~

recreation area or residence at which they are located when the evacuation order is issued.

A summary.of the simulated evacuations for each of the analysis areas follows.

Analysis Area 1 (Evacuation of Protective Action Area 1)

U For Analysis Area 1 (360 , 0-2 mile evacuation), a maximum of 135 minutes would be required to evacuate the population under fair weather conditions. Most of the vehicles evacuating this area are associated with the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station employment. However, the preparation / mobilization times associated with the transport dependent residents, which take up to 135 minutes,'are the major influence on the evacuation time. '

During adverse weather conditions, evacuation of Protective Action Area 1 could be completed within 140 minutes.

914/8100C E-55 Rev. 4 3/86

I

. TABLE 6 EVACUATION CLEAR-TIE ESTIMATES

~

Protective Evacuation Time Estimates (Minutes)

Analysis Analysis .

Adverse

_ Area Area (s) Description Weekday Night, Weekend Weather

1. 1 360 , 2-mile 135 135 135 140

2. 1,2A 90U , Northeast, 5-mile 140 140 140 145

3. 1,3A,4A,5A 90E , Southeast, 5-mile 140 140 140 145

4. 1,2A,28,7 90U , Northeast,10-mile 140 140 140 145

5. 1,3A,38,AA, 90U , Southeast, 10-mile 145 145 145 150, 48,5A,58,6 -

6. 1,8,9 90 , Northwest, 10-mile 140 140 140 145

7. 1,10,11 90 , Southwest, 10-mile 140 140 140 145

8. All 360U , Entire EPZ 145 145 145 150 l

l 914/8100C E-56 Rev. A 3/86

Analysis Area 2 (Evacuation of Protective Action Areas 1 and 2A)

[

0 Analysis Area 2 represents evacuation of the 90 northeast sector, from 0 to approximately 5 miles. For all fair weather conditions, evacuation of this area can be completed within 140 minutes. Under conditions of adverse weather, evacuation of Areas 1 and 2A will take approximately 145 minutes, due to reduced roadway capacities. The preparation and mobilization times are the most significant factors in determining the total time required to evacuate the area.

Analysis-Area 3 (Evacuation of Protective Action Areas 1,3A,4A, and 5A)

Analysis Area 3 (90 U, Southeast Sector, O to 5 miles) '

includes evacuation of the town of Port Gibson and a significantly higher population than Analysis Areas 1 and 2.

The maximum time required to evacuate this area under all fair weather conditions is 140 minutes. Any queueing which may be experienced on network roadways dissipates well before all vehicles have loaded onto the network.

Evacuation under adverse weather conditions would increase the total evacuation time to 145 minutes for Analysis Area 3.

Analysis Area 4 (Evacuation of Protective Action Areas 1,2A,28, and 7) 0 The Analys,is Area 4 simulation includes the entiru 90 Northeast Sector, from 0 to 10 miles. The m ximum evacuation time 0Jring all fair weather conditions is 140 minutes, while the adverse weather condition would result in a peak evacuation time of 145 minutes. The population within this area is only slightly higher than the population included in Analysis Area 2 l (0-5 miles, 90 0 NE) and therefore the total evacuation time .

is the same as Analysis Area 2.

914/8100C E-57 Rev. 4 3/86

. Analysis Area 5 (Evacuation of Protective Action Areas

(! '1,3A,3B,4A,48,5A,58 and 6) f Analysis Area 5 includes the entire 90 0 Southeast Sector from Grand Gulf Nuclear Station to the EPZ b0undary. The town of Port Gibson is included in this analysis area.

Under all fair weather conditions, evacustion could be completed within 145 minutes. Roadway capacity redur.tions during adverse weather thunderstorms increase the evac'Jation time tc 150 minutes. Evacuation of this area is the

! determining factor in the total time required to evacuate the entire EPZ.

Analysis Area 6 (Evacuation of Protective Action Areas 1,8 and 91 .

i 0

For the Analysis Area 6 evacuation (90 , Northwest Sector, out to the 10-mile EPZ), vehicles could be evacuated within 140 minutes for the all three fair weather conditions.

This area includes the Town of Newellton as well as several hunting and fishing camps. Adverse weather conditions for Analysis Area 6 would increase evacuation times up to 145 minutes.

Analysis Area 7 (Evacuation of Protective Action Areas 1,10 and 11) i Analysis Area 7 includes the entire 90 0 Southwest Sector from the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station to the EPZ boundary. This case involves several major population components including the town of St. Joseph, the K0A and the Newellton Country Club.

Maximum fair weather evacuation times of 140 minutes would occur during weekday, weeknight and weekend periods. During adverse weather conditions the areas included in Analysis Area g

7 could be evacuated within 145 minutes. -

914/8100C E-58 Rev. A 3/86

Analysis Area 8 (Evacuation of the entire EPZ)

The maximum time required to 6vacuate the entire EPZ under all fair weather conditions is 145 minutes. To a large extent, the preparation /pobilization times associated with the transport-dependent population define the maximum evacuation tim ~e for the EPZ. Any vehicle queueing which occurs along roadways dissipates before all vehicles have begun to evacuate from the EPZ.

During adverse weather conditions, it would take approximately 150 minutes to evacuate the entire EPZ. This increased time is due to reduced roadway capacities anticipated during an adverse weather thunderstorm condition.

~.

t 9

914/8100C E-59 Rev. A 3/86

7. ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TRAFFIC FLOW OPERATIONS In addition to the development of evacuation time estimates, the presence of vehicle queueing along network roadways was evaluated for the weekday fair weather evacuation case. Figure 13 presents a summary of network queues recorded at 30 minute intervals during the course of the simulated evacuation. A review of this figure indicates the major area of vehicle queueing and vehicle delay within the EPZ to be along roadways northeast of the plant through Ingleside. These queues, which i occur until approximately 100 minutes into the evacuation, are a result of the relatively high vehicle demand associated with Grand Gulf Nuclear Station during weekday periods. Temporary queueing also occurs along Louisiana Route 128 out of St.

Joseph. The section of roadway returns to virtually free-flow ,

conditions after approximately 80 minutes following .

notification. For all of the remaining roadways., available capacity exceeds vehicle demand throughout the evacuation period, such that relatively free-flow conditions prevail.

Summaries of the cumulative vehicle departure from the Grand Gulf EPZ, as a function of time, are presented in Figures 14, 15 and 16, for the weekday, night and weekend fair weather cases, respectively. Summaries for the cumulative vehicle departures during the weekday adverse weather condition is presented in Figure 17.

914/8100C Rev. A 3/86 E-60

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VEHICLE QUEUEING TIME SERIES ( AT T=90 MINUTES UNDER WEEKDAY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS) 914/8100C E-63 Rev. 4 3/86 i

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VEHICLE QUEUEING TIME SERIES (AT T=120 MINUTES UNDER WEEKDAY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS) 1 914/8100C E-64 Rev. A 3/86

1 1

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l 914/8100C E-65 Rev. A 3/86 l

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FIGURE 15 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES OURING A NIGHTTIME FAIR WEATHER CONDITION l 914/8100C E-66 Rev. A 3/86

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FIGURE 16 - CUMULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES DURING A WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER CONDITION 914/8100C E-67 Rev, 4 3/86

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FIGURE 17 - CUHULATIVE VEHICLE DEPARTURES DURING A WEEKDAY ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITION 914/8100C E-68 Rev. 4 3/86

i

8. ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENTS 8.1 Evacuation Confirmation Emergency planning officials from the Claiborne County Civil Defense Office and the Tensas Parish Emergency Preparedness Office estimate that confirmation of the evacuation for the entire EPZ could be completed within two hours. It should be noted that the confirmation process would be initiated between 1/2 hour and 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> of the notification to evacuate, and would be conducted radially outward, beginning in the two-mile area.

8.2 Potential Mitigating Measures The designated evacuation routings which were previously developed by local emergency preparedness officials were based on both the functional usage of available transportation facilitics and the availability of potential Mass Care Reception Centers outside of the EPZ. Although it is apparent that evacuation routing alternatives are available which may slightly reduce evacuation clear times, it is probable that reception center requirements could not be met under these conditions. Such potential routing improvements would be focused along U.S Highway 61 in Claiborne County and along ,

U.S. Highway 65 in Tensas Parish to better utilize available through movement capacities along these roadways. However, as previously indicated, such traffic flow improvements may .

adversely impact the effectiveness of Mass Care Reception Center operations.

~

With the existing evacuation routings, increased public awareness on matters related to emergency preparedness, and evacuation procedures would further mitigate potential evacuation traffic flow impacts.

E-69 Rev. A 3/86 914/8100C

9. RESPONSE LETTERS i

Input from local emergency planners was used in the.

preparation of this report. The attached letters document the review of this report by the Claiborne County Civil Defense Office and by the,Tensas Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness.

t i

\

i

. r i

914/8100C E-70 Rev. 4 3/86 m

OFFICE OF EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS

_ NUCLEAR PLANNING & RESPONSE PROGRAM

~

TENSAS PARISH ROUTE 18OX lado ST. JOSEPH. t.OUISIANA 71346 PHONE (318) 764 399a The undersigned has reviewed, and concurs in, the HMMA "Grand Gulf Nuclear Station EPZ Evacuation Time Estimate Study."

NM C4k EdBlanche/

Emergency Preparedness Coordinator Tensas Parish, Louisiana 0~ lY c' Date i

Port Gibson Claiborne County

@ CivilDefense Council P. d Das JSo Port Csbson, Mas.19130 those 437 4664 o,43719%

- A. C. Carner . Septecter 17, 1985 Dnrector '

Ms. Patti Benedict P. O. Box 1640 '

Jackson, MS 39215

Dear Ms. Benedict,

After reviewing the data that was incorporated in the Evacuation Study, I found no deviation from our own information. I am therefore, in an agreement with that study.

• I am also forwarding a copy of this letter to HMM Associates in '

order that they may know my position on the Mississippi Power t Light Conpany's Evacuation Study.

If my office may be of further assistance to you, just call upon me.

Sincerely, t

A C. Garner, Director

, cc: HMM Associates O

l I

f

)

10. ROADWAY NETWORK OEFINITION AND CAPACITIES The following pages include a description of the highway network used in the evacuation modeling efforts. These pages include a computer printout of the: network characteristics and a key _for interpreting the data in the network listing. The listing includes both highway geometrics descriptions ano' highway capacity data for each link in the network.

914/8100C E-73 Rev. 4 3/86 J

KEY TO NETVAC COMPUTER PRINTOUT LINK = Link identification number FROM = Upstream node number (A-node) for associated link  !

TO =~ Downstream node number (8-node) "f or associated link LEN = Link length in feet (A-node to B-node)

Aw = Link lane width Sw = Lateral clearance = Distance from edge of travel-way to obstructions along link midblock L = Number of lanes in direction of travel PR = Priority of movement along link, in reference to movement along intersecting links. -

Dominant or major link approaches are -

classified as Priority 1, Secondary (i.e., .l those link approaches controlled by stop '

signs, yield signs, etc.) approaches are generally classified as Priority 2. -

LT = Lane type, classified as follows:

1 - One-way, no parking 2 - One-way, parking on 1 side 3 - One-way, parking on 2 sides 4 - Two-way, no parking .

5 - Two-way, with parking

! 6 - Rural divided highway, no parking

7 - Rural undivided highway, no parking  ;

8 - Freeways and expressways l AT = Area type, classified as follows:

1 - Central business district

. 2 - Fringe l 3 - Outer business district i 4 - Residential PK = T - Parking along link permitted i F - Parking along link prohibited SPD = Free flow speed over link 1

p

914/8100C E-74 Rev. A 3/86

,_ - - -_ _. . _ ~ - - .

y

e i

JAM = relative measure of links s

Jam Density carrying = ity-capac 4

j' PRF = User preference or movement along each outbound link. Preferences are initially assigned based upon free-flow conditions.

Actual route assignments are calculated by the program, considering the assigned preferences as well as speed, density and capacity relationships.

FCAP = Link capacity STR, CAP = Identifies destination of movement from downstream node, and associated intersection capacity RGH, CAP = Identifies destination of right-turn movement from downstream node, and associated special turning lane capacity, if applicable.  ;

LFT, CAP = Identifies destination of left-turn movement '

from downstream node and associates special turn lane cwpacity, 1f applicable.

DIAG, CAP = Identifies destination of designated movement from downstream node, and associated capacity. .

FLOW = Used in special cases for designating network flows.

+

L

. i 914/8100C E-75 Rev. 4 3/86  !

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REFERENCES k

1. "Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants," NUREG 0654, FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, U.S.

Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Federal Emergency Management Agency, November 1980.

2. "Evacuation Time Estimate Study - Grand Gulf Nuclear Station Units 1 and 2," HMH Associates, Rev. 2, July 1981,

3. ."Highway Capacity Manual," Highway Research Board Special Report No. 87, National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, 1965.

4 "Inter!m Materials on Highway Capacity," Transportation Research Circular No. 212, Transportation Research Board, National Academy of Sciences, January 1980.

5. "The Environmental Influence of Rain on Freeway Capacity," E.

Roy Jones and Merrell E. Goolsby, Highway Research Record No.

321, Highway Research Board, 1970; and "Headway Approach to' Intersection Capacity," Donald S. Berry and P. D. Gandhi, Highway Research Reord No. 453, Highway Research Board, 1973.

6. "Evacuation Risks - An Evaluation," Hans and Sell, US EPA, July 1984; and "Evacuation Planning in Emergency Management,"

Perry, Lindell and Green, Lexington Books, 1981.

4 l

I 914/81000 E-78 Rev. 4 3/86

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