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Economic Impact Study of Proposed KPL/KG-E Merger.
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ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY OF THE PROPOSED KPL/KG&E MERGER Prepared for the Staff of the Kansas Corporation Commission by the Institute for Public Policy and Business Research

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University of Kansas February 6,1991 36R 186M 8886 ea T ppR i . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . .

APPENDIX A THEORETICAL, TECHNICAL AND EMPIRICAL CONSIDERATIONS Introduction This first appendix is concerned with providing a general description of the mathematical model used to study the economic impact of the proposed merger on the Kansas economy. Specifically, '

this appendix will discuss in a non-mathematical manner input- '

output modelling, the construction of the 1.nput-output model used in this study, and the empirical results of the investigations.

-Appendix B will provide a more technical description of input-output modelling, the model used in this study and summary tables of the results of this study. If the reader is only concerned with the results of the research, summary tables can be found on pages 33, 45, and 46. Appendix C has more complete and detailed tables of the reaults of our investigations.

The Total Effact of an Economic Change Primary and Secondary Rffacts of Economic Change i

When a change occurs within an economy it causes other modifications within'that economy. These-secondary modifications of the economy-are the result of the structural interdependence of most sectors of -a modern economy. - These two ef fects are generally referred to as the' primary and secondary ef fects of an economic

-change. The initial-change is the primary effeet on the economy.

This is the easily observed effect. For example, the laying of f of 1

100 employees with combined annual wage and salary income of

$4,000,000 would be a primary ef fect. As this primary ef fect -

' reverberates through the economy, it causes further change in that economy secondary' effects. For example, the loss of $4,000,000 in personal income in an economy will result in less expenditures for retail sales and if a sales tax exists, less tax revenue from that tax. Other secondary offects would be a decline in demand in the automobile and housing markets and reduced tax revenue from an income tax. These secondary effects are not immediately or directly observable, but they penetrate into every sector of an economy.

Methods for Generating Multioliers The magnitude of these secondary ef fects can be estimated through the use of multipliers. A multiplier gives a quantitative estimate of the secondary effects of an initial change in an economy, based on the source and the size of the initial change.

Regional multipliers can be estimated using three basic methods.

The first is- the economic base method which in its simplest form is

-similar -- to a simple open Keynesian model for a region.

Unfortunately, this type of model operates at an aggregate. level and does not provide the ability to analyze the offacts of changes at- the industrial. level. An econometric ' model is the second possible t.ource - for developing regional multipliers. The most detailed econometric model of the Kansas economy has been developed by IPPBR. -Despite this model's complexity, it forecasts over 100 Kansas variables, it does not have the capability to generate 2

lmultipliersJfor the offeet'of, price and employment changes in the-electrical: utilities industry on the rest-.of the Kansas econory.

The third method of estimating multipliers, and the method we-have chosen to use, is' through_ an input-output model. This type of model provides detailed, inter-industry multipliers. Numerous papers have also documented that when the detailed estimates of an

. input-output model are aggregated,-the-aggregate multipliers are Esimilar to the economic-base multipliers (Pleeter_1980, p. 27).

Simple Input-Output Model-Explanation _of Simple Input-Output-Model The- simplest input-output model is a series of industrial supply and demand relations with only industries and consumers as economic agents -in _ the model.- Supply is the output of each industry.- Demand for this output is separated into two major components:-' final demand and intermediate demand. Final demand is

'the demand for-goods.and services by individual consumers for their own use. -Intermediate demand is the_ demand for goods and services by 3 one; industry for its production of other _ goods and services.

For ' example, the use of- steel by an aircraf t firm to produce airplanes is an : intermediate:-demand --for steel .- By the same token, theiuse of a: company airplane by_the sales staff of a steel firm for the ; generation of steel orders is another exar to- of

--intermediate demand.

The assumption--that alligoods and services produced in this

-economy must be used: creates-the simple accounting identity: an industry'sioutput is. equal to-the uses of that output as an input 3

to production plus the consumption of that output by individuals.

In simpler economic terms, supply is equal to intermediate demand plus final demand for each industry. Thus, the identity yields a series of industrial supply and demand equations. Stack these industrial supply and demand relationship on top of each other, number each industry, and use this numbering system to sequence, in each supply and demand equation, the individual intermediate demands for output. For example, let the electrical utility industry's supply and demand equation be fifth from the top in the stack of supply and demand equations. Then in each supply and demand equation, the electrical utility's intermediate demand is the fifth intermediate demand from the beginning of the intormediate demands.

By maintaining the industrial order, the stack of industrial supply and demand equations can compactly be depicted by a metrix equation. In terms of matrix algebra, a vector of outputs Ithe stack of industrial outputs) is equal to a square matrix of intermediate demands (the-stack of intermediate demands) plus a vector of final demands (the stack of final demands). This matrix relationship is the heart of any input-output model. The column vectors both have the same height (the same number of entries) as the number of industries within the model. The square matrix's dimensions are also determined by the number of industries within the model. If the model has ten industries, then the column vectors are ten entries high and the square matrix has ten columns and ten rows.

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The matrix of intermediate demands makes input-output the model unique (and gives it its name). This matrix is a matrix of inputs to production which captures the inter-industry flow of goods and services necessary for productions a matrix of inputs to produce a vectors of outputs. A column in this matrix represents the various inputs to production used by one particular industry.

In the example of the electrical industry used above, the fifth column represents the inputs necessary for the production of electricity. These inputs are generated by the production of the other industries in the economy. A row of this matrix represents the uses of one industry's production in the production processes of all the industries in the economy. Again using the example above, the fif th row represents the use of electricity generated by the electric utility industry in the production of all other industries. Obviously, in a real economy, some of the cells in the matrix will be zero; that is, some industries will not use the production of other industries in their own production process.

Making the Model Operational This description of the simple input-output model captures the basic concept of the model. However, make to the model operational, a couple of alterations are necessary. The variables in the model above were described in physical terms which implies measurement in physical units such as number of hamburgers and tons of steel. In order for the input-output model to be flexible, the output, inputs and final demand for all industries need to be measured in the same units. This is accomplished by substituting l

4 the monetary value_of the goods and services produced and used for their physical units. Instead of tons of steel produced, the model !

inow'has the dollar value of'all the steel produced, and instead of

'the number of hamburgers eaten, the model has the dollar value of hamburgers eaten.

A second alteration in the model -is necessary to generate multipliers. Each column in the matrix of inputs to production represents the monetary value of inputs-to the production of an

-industry. If each of the inputs to the production of a particular industry-(each column entry) is divided by that industry's dollar value of output, a' column of input coefficients is created. If

. this- process is followed for all industries, then a matrix of production coefficients.(or input coefficients) is created. The

. assumption:made by economists who work with input-output models is '

that these production coefficients are an adequate description o~f L - the production process, except for labor, at all relevant levels of production._ At this- point of development, the contribution of labor to the-production process is being ignored._ These production l

coefficients are not# going 1to adequately describe the production-process':at all. levels of production, but if the band of expected change is -relatively small (less than a - 25 percent- change in

- output), then these coef ficients are an adequate representation-of L

4the production process (Miller-and B1, - 1985, pp. 266-316.}

A second important assumption implied by the use of the matrix of -production _ coef ficients: is that prices are constant. This assumption is necessary because these coef ficients are derived from 6

I.

the value, in dollars, of inputs to production. If prices change, then the production coefficients would chango even if the production process still required the same physical amounts of all goods and services. In addition, if relative prices change, then probably some substitution among the goods and services used ts inputs would take place. All of the above means that if the assumption of constant prices is violated, then the production coefficient matrix must be adjusted.

The construction of the matrix of production coefficients by dividing all the industrial columns by their industrial output creates an imbalance in the basic supply and demand relationships.

To rectify this imbalance, the coefficient matrix must be multiplied by the column vector of outputs. The analogy with a single equation supply and demand model should help explain why this manipulation is necessary. Suppose one has an equation such '

that output is equal to intermediate demand plus final demand. If intermediate demand is divided by output, then in order to maintain the equality relationship, intermediate demand must also be multiplied by output. This is the old Algebra trick of multiplying by 1; that is, multiplying by output divided by output.

Derivation of Multipliers The substituting of the intermediate demand matrix (the matrix of inputs to production) with the production coef ficient matrix multiplied by the vector of industrial outputs creates in the simple input-output model the opportunity to generate a matrix of multipliers by algebraically solving the model. Appendix B 7

1

provides the-procedure for solving the model and generating the matrix of multipliers. The algebraic result of solving the model is that the column vector of industrial outputs is equal to a

-matrix of multipliers multiplied by a column vector of final demands. (Matrix multiplication must be used in the above relationship.) The matrix of multipliers is the result of subtracting the matrix of production coef ficients from the identity matrix and then inverting the result.

The matrix equations the column of outputs is equal to the matrix of multipliers multiplied by the column of final demands, is the basis for our impact analysis. This equation links final demand to output. If this relationship holds true at levels of economic activity near the equilibrium level of output and final demand, then changes in final demand are linked to changes in output. The simple mathematical equation does not establish a cause and effect relationship between final demand and output, it only establishes that these variables are related.- The cause and af fact relationship can only be established in the construction of the mathematical model. Economista distinguish between variables that are exogenous to a model and variables which are endogenous to a model . The values of the-exogenous variables are determined outside of the model and are commonly referred to as the parameters of the model. The values of the endogenous variables are determined within the model. The relationship between the exogenous and endogenous variables in an economic model reveals the l assumed cause and effect relationship within the model.

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In the case of this simple input-output model, the equation described above is interpreted as operationally meaning that a

{ change in the column vector of final demands multiplied by the matrix of multipliers yields the change in industrial output.

Because the multipliers are derived from the matrix of production coefficients, which in turn were derived from the matrix of inter-industry flows of goods and services, these multipliers take the initial, primary effect on final demand and create an estimate of the primary and secondary effects on industrial output due to an exogenous change in the economy. Traditionally, these multipliers

} are described as capturing the direct ef fect of an impact on final demand and the indirect effect of this direct effect as it moves through the production side of the economy.

The Input-Output Models Used for this Study Addition of more Realism The simple input-output model with the matrix of production coefficiente can be made more complex and realistic in several different ways. For the purposes of this investigation, two refinements were added to the simple input-output model to construct the basic input-output model used in this study. First, the final demand sector was expanded beyond merely household consumption to include imports, exports, and other exogenous final demand such as income frorr trans fer payments. Second, household consumption from wage and salary income was "endogenized" in the models rather than having household consumption as given, it now is determined within the model. The expanding of the final demand 9

sectors merely required the addition of vectors reprSsenting each of the new final demand sectors added to the model. The "endogenizing" of household consumption f rom wage and salary income requires more explanation.

In addition to the basic input-output model, a separate price change model was developed. One of the phenomena investigated in this study-is the ef fect on the economy of a possible change in the

-price of electricity. The development of a separate price change model was necessary because, as noted above, the matrix of production coef ficients assumes constant prices. If prices change, then an adjustment of the production coefficient matrix is necessary. The price change model is a series of techniques used to adjust the basic input-output model to account-for a change in the price of electricity. Af ter the discussion of the construction of the basic input-output model, an outline of the techniques assembled to produce the price change model will be provided along with:an outline of the' structure of the price change model.

"Endogenlaing Households" 1Nr "endogenize" households in the model, both the-labor income to households- and the consumption of goods and- services by households need to be "endogenized". .The production coefficient matrix created above-does not include-labor costs or other value added costs _ of production. To add labor cost to the model, consider the dollar value of all labor needed in each sector. Each sector's labor requirement can be converted into a coefficient as

-the other production inputs were before by dividing the dollar 10

- ~ _ _ _ . ._. _. _ _ . _ . . _ . _ . _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _

value of labor needed for production by the value of output in each respective industry. Multiplying these coefficients by any change in output produces the resulting change in labor income due to the change in output. This increase in labor income is an increase in income to households.

How households spend this income-depends upon the pattern of household expenditures on goods and services. The vector of consumer demand for goods and services provides this pattern. By dividing each element in this vector by personal income, a vector of coefficients is constructed which represents the share of personal income spent on each sector's output. This vector of coefficients is a vector of consumption shares. Tying together labor income and household consumption adds a new facet to the models the effect of a-change in output on household consumption '

can now be determined. The change in output causes a change in labor income which then causes a change in household consumption.

The result of incorporating labor requirements for production and household consumption in the model is the "endogenizing" of households. The process is sometimes referred to as closing the model with respect to households.

-The Effect on the Multipliers

-A qualitative result of "endogenizing" households is to alter the multipliers. The multipliers derived before only took account of the indirect ef fect on output as the direct ef fect moves through the production process.- The new multipliers include the influence of the indirect offect on household consumption through changes in 11

l wages and salaries which affect household income, or in other I words, these new multipliers capture the feedback affect on households of a change in exogenous final demand. These effects are called the induced effects because they result from the additional income for households induced by the direct ef fect. The multipliers which are derived from a model where households are "endogenized" capture three effects: direct, indirect, and induced. The quantitative effect on multipliers of "endogenizing" households is to make them larger (Miller and Blair 1985, pp. 100-105)

A detailed mathematical description of our model, its solution, and the generation of its multipliers is provided in the appendix. The matrix techniques necessary for the solution of our model and the generation of the multipliers are similar to the techniques used to solve the simple input-output model and generate its multipliers. The result is the same: a matrix of multipliers which links a change in final demand to a change in industrial output.

Data Sources The data which was used to generate the actual numbers for our model came from the U.S. Input-output Tables for 1977 and 1985 developed by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); personal income, farm income, and crop and livestock cash receipts for the state and varioue counties developed by BEA; employment and payroll estimates for the state and various counties from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau 12

{

i

1 i

4 of the Census (CB), county Businesr Patterna; population estimates for the state and various counties (CB); and publicly available data from Kansac City Power and Light, Kansas Power and Light, and Kansas. Gas -and Electric supplied by the Kansas Corporation .

Commission.

The Structure of the Basic Input-Output Model The input-output model used in this study is based on the input-output tables which are part of the larger Kansas Long Term Models a hybrid, dynamic, multi-sector model of Kansas. The model is based on 1985 data which meant that all analysis required the '

deflating of current estimates to 1985 figures and then the inflating of the results back to current figures. The original input-output model has 48 sectors. The number of sectors was expanded to 49 so that the electrical utilities industry could be an independent sector. This was done by using the location.

quotient method in conjunction with the U.S. input-output tables for 1977 (the last year that the electrical utilities industry was a separate sector).

The Price: Change Model In the explanation of the simple input-output model, it was l noted that- if prices change, then the matrix of production coef ficients = needs to be adjusted. Developing a technique for adjusting the matrix of production coefficients is the first step in developing an input-output opproach to estimating the ef feet of a price change. How this adjustment was made will be briefly explained in this section. A fuller explanation of the price 1

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change model is provided in the appendix. l A change in the price of some good or service will' af feet the costs of all other sectors which use the initial good or service as an input to production. For the purposes of this study, the sector assumed to have a price change is the electrical utilities sector.

A change in the price of electricity will affect the costs of almost every other sector of the economy, but the sectors which use relatively more electricity will have their costs affected more than the sectors which use relatively less electricity. For all but a few sectors we assumed that these changes in cost would be incorporated in the sectors new price of its output.

. In some sectors which face national markets for their output, we assumed that the price of the output was determined nationally. In these

-sectors, the changes in costs due to the price change altered sectorial profits, not the sector price.

A change in the price of electricity will af fect more than the costs of production. It wil? also affect consumer demand, export demand, and intermediate demand. To estimate the ef fect of a price change on consumer and export demand requires estimates of-price elasticities for all goods and services. - Having these elasticities allowed for the estimation of a new consumption vector for households and a new export vector. The affeet of an electricity price change on intermediate demand for electricity depends upon the amount of substitution of other goods and services for electricity. Estimates of the amount of substitution for electricity were taken from other studies and a new matrix of 14

t intermediate demands was constructed.

The new consumption and export vectors and the new intermediato demand matrix can be used to create a new input-output model parallel to the original input-output model. This new model is then solved and the results for industrial output, wages and salaries, employment, and tax revenues for this new model are then compared with the original model's industrial output, wages and salaries, employment, and tax revenues. The difference in the results of the two models provides an estimate of the effeet of an electricity price change on the economy.

Structure of the Price Change Model The price change model has the same 49 sectors that the basic input-output model had. It was constructed in the same fashion using the same techniques. However, the area covered by the price change model is different because of the nature of the price change. The basic input-output model is a Kansas model. However, the price change will not be statewide, the price change will onb occur in the service area of the firm changing its price.

Consequently, the price change model must be adapted to the service area of the electrical utility being etudied.

For this study, two price change models were developed: a KPL model and a KG&E model. The service areas for each utility were estimated by using the publically available reports which list the nunter of residential hookups in each county by the particular utility and comparing that number with the number of separate households in each county. If one is interested in investigating 15

a combination of price changes simultaneously happening in both service areas, then the results of the individual changes in each service area can be added together to capture more complex price change scenarios.

EMPIRICAL RESULTS Questions for Investigation The first basic question to be investigated in this study is how will changes in employment for KPL and KG&E as a result of a merger affect the Kansas economy. The basic input-output model described above will be used to answer this question. The second question to be investigated is how will changes in the-price of electricity affect the Kansas economy. This will require the use of a separate price _ change model for each service area. The ef fect of employment and price changes on the Kansas economy as a result of the possible merger will be measured in terms of the changes caused in industrial output, weges and salaries, tax revenues from the state retail sales and use tax and.the state personal income tax, and total employment.

Changes in Employment Both KCP&L and KPL indicated in_their, testimony that one of their reasons for wanting to merge with KG&E_is the increase-in efficiency and ensuing cost reduction that is possible. Part of the . expected cost- reduction is. the elimination of certain employment-positions in the merged company. The basic input-output 16

i model was used to investigate the possible effects on the state economy of a reduction in employment by the newly formed electrical utility. The expected reduction in wages and salary was first deflated from an 1991 estimate to 1985 dollars, base year of the input-output model. The 1985 wages and salary figure wes then converted from personal income to disposable personal income and then to final demand. The matrix of multipliers was then used to estimate the impact of the initial change in final demand, as a result of the reduction in wages and eclary, on the whole Kansas economy. The total impact on the Kansa6 economy of the initial change was measured by estimating the changes in output, wages and dalaries, state. retail and use tax revenue, state personal income tax revenue, and employment.

Seven different scenarios of reduced employment and lost wage and salaries due to the merger were investigated. The scenarios range from a loss of $4,800,000 in wages and salaries coupled with a-loss of 100 jobs to a loss of $30,000,000 in wages and salaries coupled with a loss of 600 jobs. Table 1 in Appendix B summarizes the aggregated results of these different scenarios. A series _of seven tables, one for each scenario, provides full sector level detail of the results of each scenario for all 49 sectors is provided in Appendix C.

One of these scenarios is based upon the estimated wage and salary and employment reductions that.would be made by KCP&L if it took over KGEE, and another scenario is based on KPL's estimate of what their reduction in wages and salaries and employment would be 17

if-they took over FG&E.- KCP&L estimated, if they took over KG&E, they. would reduce 1:sges and salaries by about $8,500,000 and employment by 176 jobs.1 We estimate, in 1991 dollars, that t hi.e

-initial reduction would-result in a total decline in Kansas output "

of $11,200,000, a total reduction in Kansas wages and salaries of

$10,800,000, a loss to the state government of $200,000 in retail

-sales and use tax revenue and $200,000 in lost revenue front the c state personal income tax, and a total decline in employment of 336 jobs.

KPL estimated that if they merged with KG&E that they could-reduce wages and salaries $20,379,000 in 1991 dollars and reduce ~

employment ey 403 jobs. The estimated reduction of Kansas output of this initial change is $33,500,000 and the raduction of Kanaaa .

wages and salaries by $27,400,000. . The state is estimated to lose

$1,000,000 in tax. revenue, $500,000 from both the state reteil -

sales and use. tax and the state personal income-tax. The total

' loss of jobs in the economy would be 781.

I KCP&L' estimated that it would reduce. wages and salaries by

$8,286,000 . in 1990 dollars over four years. This figure was inflated to 1991 dollars and rounded. As with the case of KPL, we have assumed that the change will take place in one time period.

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. . . . . - - - .= _- , -

_ The Empirical Implemeritation of the Price Change Model The KGt.E service crea has slightly more than 20'i of t:.e civilian labor force in Manpas and slightly higher proportions of Kansas personal income and wages and salaries. The KPL service area has more than 25% of Kansas 's civilian labor force and has slightly lower proportions of I:ensas 's personal in:ome arid wage and salary income. Six different possibilities for the pric/e of electricity were usod to investigate the impact of a change in the price of electricity on the economy of each eervice area. The pricing possibilities were a 1%, 5%, and 10% increase and ascreate in the price of electricity.

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Changes in Pricest The KPL Servico Area

, Table 2 in Appendix B summarizes the aggregate rerults of the E s.tx pricing scenarlos investigeted. Only the cases of a 5%

increase and decrease in the prico of electricity will be discussed. The 5% increase in the price of electricity results in u decline in output of $42,700,000, in wages and salaries of

$14,900,000, in tax revenue of $300,000 for both the ttato retail sales and use tax, and tho , state personal income tax. Employnent would be expected to decline 436. In comparison with the impact of an employment reduction and wage and salary loss discussed just 1

above, the price change seems to affect output more than wages and

. salaries. This is because the direct effect of changes in wages and salary income pushes up the total impact on wage and salary income. The 5% percent decline in the price of electricity is ;

estimated to increase output by $44,700,000, increase wage and [;

i 19 l

_ ~ _ _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - " " ^ - - - ' ' - - -

salary inecm, by L $15,200,000 .inerwnst tax rn enues of both the sWS Ceet) sea i and use tax and personal income tax by $300,000.

Nployedt. Would 1A expected to increase by 446.

rtM results t of (1i % increase and decreene in the price of

[ electricity are not symmetrical: the-increase is slightly greater

.in absolute value than the decrease. Because an Anput-output model is traditionally a lineer model, this result is somewhat counter-intuitive. This outcome is duo to the introduction of nonlinearities into the model. The adjustment mechanisma used to alter the model becaun of the price change are the sources of the non-symmetrie results.

L Changes in Pricess Dhe KG&E Service Area Table 3 f n Appendix B summarizes the aggreget,u' ren 11ts el the six price change scenarios used to investigate the KG&E price chango mode]. Secause the KG&E service area is slightly smaller in terms of nuinber of nookups, receonal income and civilian labor force, the price change scenerlos hav7 slightly J,ess impact in this service wea than in the KPL service area. The 5% increase in the

_prict of e3ectricity results in a loss of $37,000,000 in output, S13,500,000 in wagen and talary income, $300,000 in tax revenue each ;from retail 'anlas, use tax a ri.d personal. income tax.

Employ.Mnt falis 297. Thu S% decreeze in the price- of electricity results- in an inerense .in cutput of $4 0,3'00,000, an increa.se in l

~ wage ahd sclery ineen.e of-'S13,200,000, an increase'in tax revenue-

'of $300,000 from both the state retail sales and use tax and the state - personal incorsa tax,- ar.< .in increase in employment of 309, 20

. .- _._m__. . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ . . . . _ _ _ . _ _ _ . _ . - . . . _ . _ _ . _ _ . . _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

5 APPENDIX 11 A Generic Input-Output Model The construction of an it.put-output model begins unh a series -

of individual industry supply and demand equations, ror example, consider industry 1, '

(1) $ e (j, + (si + . . + (jj + . . + (en + Ye 4

where +4 is the output for industry 1 in physical undts (gj is the intermediate quantity demand for industry l's output by industry J .

Yj is the final demand for industry l's outp'.:t These equations assume that all output _is used as an input to-fu';ther production or la consuaed as final _ demand. The quantitles ,

in these supply and demand equations are measured in physical terms .

rather than by monetary val (). For example, the number of planes used or the tons of steel produced.

Stacking all the industrial supply and demand equations in order provides the following_ configuration of equations:

$2 = (n + . . + (if * . * * (in + Y t (2) $ = ( j, + . . + ( jj + . . + ( 3, + y ,

3 4'n = ( ns * * . . * ( ny + , - . * ( nn + Y n These industrial supply and demand equations can be converted to a single matrix equation which describes this simple economy:

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- . . - . - . - - . - . . . - . - . . - . - . . - . - _ ~ - - . . - - . - . - . . - - . - - - . . , - . - ,

(sj .

'&'i '(it . . .

(in Yi (3) $f = (j . . (jy . . +

(4n Ya

,4n. ,(as (nj *

(nn. 1n, A more compact meuted of writing these relationships is.

4 E+P (4) where 6 is the vector of industr!;l output 5 is the matrix of intermediate demands V is the vector of final demand Equation (4) describes the production relationships in this simple economy in terms of physical units: numbers of planes, tons of steel, etc.

To proceed with economic analysis, these production relationships need to be expressed in monetary terms.

Changing from measurements in physical units to units of monetary value requires the addition of prices to the model. Let p, be the market price of the output of the ith industry. Then equation (1) becomes:

(5) p $j = pj . ( j , + pj - ( j, + . . . + p, ' ( j, + p, y ,

j This equation establishes the relationship that the monetary value of output is equal to the intermediate demand 'or the output plus the final demand for the output, with all variables measured in monetary units. The following new variables make tM notation for the model easier to follows 22

i pg 'kg = X io p,*\,,

2 29 , and p j 'Yg = y, Using these new variables, equatiot. (%) now becomes (6) x, = z,, + :,, + . . . + z,, + y, where x, is the output for industry i z,, is the intermediate demand for industry l's output l by industry j y, is the final demand for industry l's output Stacking all industrial equations in order, as was done with equation set (2), and converting the result to matrix form, as was done with equation (3) gives:

X1 E ng *

2)1

. 2 1a Y1

. . . . . . s . .

(1) x, . zt, . . z;, . . :;,, s y, K,n E ns

ns ' ' nn, Yn.

which can be written more compactly ass (B) x=z+y The rows of the z matrix in equation (8) represent input demand for industry i's output while the columns of the matrix represent induut y i's input demand for all other output.

Unlike the E matrix from equation (4), the Z matrix is a description of the production process of the economy in monetary units. If prices in the economy change, then the Z matrix will change even if the underlying physical production process is 23

unchanged. Put another way, if relative prices change, but the l productive structure of the economy remains the same, then the I matrix will-not change, but the z matrix will change.

The E matrix can be converted into a matrix of coef ficients which describe the economy's production process. The production coefficients are created by dividing each column entry by the output of that industry. Tc: example, consider the use of industry ith's output as an input by industry ji (9) Pi ? U . ' ' ' . a ,,

ps'#, -x s This procedure can be followed for all the entries in 2 matrix in equation (7) creating a matrix of production coef ficients which is 1 commonly referred to as the A matrix.

I t1 # 13 Il Xg xg f >

8 11 0 12 ' ' ' S an

' ' ' E 21 I tt * * ' 0, g y 2 noi . . . . . .

. A a 33 a n ' '

A r,3 r

,,3g _ , , ,

y m-x1 x2 x,,

The 2 matrix'in equations (7) and (8) can not be replaced by v.e A matrix just created above without some adjustments. Because the:A matrix was created by dividing each column by that industry's output, each' entry.needs to also be multiplied by that industry's output to. maintain the equality in equations (7) and (B). The first part of equation (10) now becomes:

24

"~

X1 Xg X2

'X g . . . " X, Xn '

d ggX gd X12 2 . . . a g ,X p E tt E tt E tn Xg Xg . . . Xp o ggX ga Xgg g . . . B anXn X1 Xg Xn (11) , , , , , ,

e oX nt O 1 N nr 2 * *

O dn.

~"'X g NX g . . .

X,

{X L X 2 Nn ,

14otice that the right hand side of equation (11) is identical to the A matrix having been post-multiplied by the column vector of outputs. Making this substitution gives:

a,1 x,a,x,. n . . . agnx, a,a,.

s g . . a,'n 'x g d21X 10 X22 2 . . . .d arTa d 21 0 22 . . . .d 2n X2 (12) <

an2X 1 oX un ' a nn Xn a ns d a a an ,

X,n The right hand side of equation (12) can now be substituted for the Z matrix in equation (7).

x3 a 13 a,.t . . a, x t 3 v3 X2 d 21 8 22 . . . .8 2n X2 E2 (13) , < <

,Xn. E

, nt aM ' *

O n, Xn, Yn, b Equation (13) can be written more compactly by substituting the A matrix post-multiplied by the column vector of outputs into equation (8).

25 I

(14) X = A .X < Y Solving the above equation for the column vector of outputs <

generates the multipliers for the model.

X - A 'X = Y

( I- A )X = Y X = ( I - A )*1 Y The usefulness of the multipliers depends upon whether around ,

this solution (or equilibrium point), a change in final demand will alter output by the same - proportion that is established at the

. equilibrium point .-

1 Given this assumption, the solution can be interpreted as (15) A X = ( I - A )'1 A Y where A X is the change in output A Y is the cha.Jge in flD&1 demand

( I - A )'1 is the matrix of multipliers for a change in final demand Indogenoud Consumption from Wages and Salary. Income The simple model discussed in' the previous section does not explicitly have any income creation. The model consists solely of output, a production process, and exogenous final demand. .The matrix of production coefficients in the model only includes'the use of goods and services in the production process. . This neglects the contribution of labor to production and the income that labor

-earns from' participating in production. This section is concerned with the inclusion of labor income and the consumption from labor 26

income into the input-output adel 2 l- Labor is incorporated into the production process by adding a i row at the bottom of the 2 matrix which represents labor's ,

contribution to the production of each good and service in the economy. Let w) represent labor's contribution to the production of the jth product. In terms of cost, e) is the cost of labor to the jth industry; in terms of income, w; is labor income from the jth industry. With the addition of labor, 2 matrix becomes:

2 The endogenizing of consumption from labor income not only makes the input-output model more complex, it also necessitates the using of more exact notation in the matrix algebra used to describe the model. The problem is basically one of keeping the dimensions of the scalers, vectors, and matrices compatible. To facilitate this process, several conventions will be used:

A matrix will be indicated by a captial letter and a vector ,will be indica ted by an arrow over its i ys P= ya ys A vector tur,ned into a diagonal matrix will have a hat over itt Iytt 0 0' l P= 0 ys 0 0 0 yss A vector 'or a matrix multiplied by a scaler will be

( interpreted ast

a y3 a y33 a yg, a y13 a .f = a y, aY= a yat s y22 S ysi C ys, a yan a yss a y,,.

27 L._._..._, _

. . ._ _ _._ _ . _ . . . ..__.__._m__ _ _ _ _ . . . . _ . . _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~ _ _ . . _ _

4 ,

E gg . . E gj . . E gn J'

tjg . . E gj . . r an E ng . . Eg n . . Zy Ug . . 99 . . U n, Labor cost or income can also be converted to a coefficient using

-the same technique as used in equation (9) to create production . ,

coefficients. Again, to maintain the same value within the matrix, 4

the coefficient must be multiplied by output for that 'ndustry.

h# ' x, = w, 'x, (17)- 1

' where w, is the . labor coeff.icient of production When the-technique in equation-(17) is applied to all labor costs in the expanded 2 matrix,_the result is similar to equation (11).

Removing _ labor costs, in their- coefficient form,- from the production matrix leaves a row vector of labor coefficients .

multiplied by output.

-7 (wg . . vj; . . w,,)

x, (18) xj ,

k I

l 28

,r.nn.s.vew .-.w-m rw=w-mm+- - - * *" " - ^ ' " ' ' ' '""

I.

This ca n again be written more compactly as:

RT E o Wage and Salary income Production (19) where R'is the transpose of the column vector of 1 abor produccion coetticients )

Equations (18) and (19) make wage and salary income from production endogenous to the model. In addition, equation (19) creates a scalar, not a vector.

To fit consumption from wage and salary income into the model, the final demand vector must be separated into final demand from consumption dependent on wage and salary income and final demand which is exogenous to the model, such as exports. The final demand that remains exogenous to the model will be treated as final demand has been treated before. The treatment of endogenous final demand will now be explained.

First, not all wage and salary income is spent on the consumption of goods and services, some of the income is lost to taxes.

Transforming wages and salary income from something like gross personal income into disposable personal income is done by multiplying the wages and salary income by one minus the tax rate.

(1 - t )'R' A = Wage and Salary Income af ter Taxes where s is the tax rate Second, not all of disposable income is spent on consumption,

[ some of tho' income is saved. Reducing disposable income to income used for consumption is done by multiplying disposable income by the percentage of disposable income spent on consumption of goods and services in the economy.

29

_ . . _ ~ _ _ _ . _ . - . _ _ . _ _ . _ _ _ . _ _ _ . . . .. _ . . - __ __ _

l l

Cg * ( 1 - t ) .pr.y where C, is the percent: age of disposable income spent on consumption Third, the income which is sper.t on consumption is not spent as a lump sum, but is distributed among most of the goods and 1 services produced in the economy. The distribution of consumption is accounted for by multiplying disposable income spent on consumption by the marginal propensity to consume each of the goods j

and services in the aconomy.

Cg * (1 - t ) * (MEC) .pr.y where (MEC) is the Marginal Propensity to Consume

&Gch good and service E the economy The result of taking all of these matters into consideration is the creation of a more complex expression for final demand which incorporates both exogenous and endogenous elements.

P = 0, + C, ' ( 1 - t ) * (MEC) .pr.y where En is exogenous consumption The dimensions of equation (20) are somewnat confusing, so a list of the vector and matrix dimensions is provided below.

2 and 0 ,are nx1 C,'(1 - t) is a scaler (MEC) and 2are nx1 A' is 1xn (MEC) AT is nxn (MEC)*AE is nx1 Substituting equation (20) into equation (14 ) for final demand 30 l

. _. _ _ _ _ _ . . . _ _ - _ _ _ . _ _ . . . _ _ . . _ . _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~ _ _

yields:

(21) 3 A R + d,, + C. - ( 1 - t ) - (uEc) #r f As with equation (14), solving equation (21) generates the multipliers for this model. The basic technique is the sare:

E - A *A - Cs * ( 1 - t ) ' (MEC)

AT'S = E,,

{ 1 - A - Cg ' ( 1 - t ) * (NEC) '#]'i = (,

f = { 1 - A - C. * ( 1 - t ) ' (NEC) '#] O.,

(22) v3,y,

{ g . A . c, . ( 1 - , ) . (gpc) .pr} 1 is the matrix of multipliers As with equation (15), equation (22) can be interpreted as an expression true not just at equilibrium, but near equilibrium.

Thus, equation (22) can be used to estimate the offeet of a. change in final demand on the economy's cutput.

(23) Af . ( 1 - A (1 - c ) . (gpC) . 6,3 y M,, .

The difference between equation (15) and equation (22) is the existence of endogenous final demand in the matrix of multipliers.

The secondary ef fect of an initial change in zinal demand now contains both an indirect offeet on intermediate demand and an induced effect on-final demand.

This completes the generic explanation of the structure of input-output models and the methods used to derive multipliers from i these input-output models. The remainder. of this appendix ' is concerned with explaining the actual models used in this study.

31

- , __ . . _ _ . _....-_ _.___ ___ _ _ ,_ .___._.., _ ____~._._ _ - _ _

- - = - - ._- - . . . .

The Input-Output Model Used The basic input-oatput model used in this study is the following:

I i= (I - A) A R + (I - A) -( C ) -(1 - t ) -(MFC) -( pr) .y (24)

+ { exp6t ts + ( I - A)

E,, }

where a is Import Coefficients Vector (I - A)'A is The Regional Input-Output Matrix 1 exp6tts is Sales to Out-of-State Firms and Consumers ;

The last term in brackets is exogenous final demand. The following substitutions simplify the notation:

A' = (I - A) ' A C,3 = ( C, ) ( 1 - t )

= Total Consun;ption as a Share of Endogenous Income As wit'n the other models, this model can be solved for the squilibrium output level (25) " (' ' ^ ~ ~' '

{ exp5rts + (I - A) 0,, }

The first erpression in brackets is the matrix of multipliers.

The seven different scenarios of changes in employment and wages and salary income were investigat'ed .using the above model.

The initial changes in wages and salary incom were translated into changes in disposable income and then changes in consumption from disposable income. They were then substituted into equation (25) as a change in exogenots income. The results of these-investigations can be found in Table 1. Some perspective on these I

32 l

l

l. _, . _ _ . . , - - -

. . - - - - --- - --- -~ '

TABLE 1 The Impact on the Kansas Economy of Reductions in Employment and Wages and Salarier as a Result of the Merger of KPL and KG&E (Estimated in 1991 dollars)

Scenarios: Change in Variables as a Result of Loss of Loss of Jobs Jobs and Loss of Wages & Calaries and Loss of Wages &

Salaries in Retail State Wages & Sales Income millions of S output Salaries Use Tax Tax Employ-($ mil.) ($ mil.) ($ mil.) ($ mil.) ment ,,,

100 Jobs -S7.9 -$6.5 -$0.1 -S0.1 -189

$4.8 W & S 178 Jobs -11.2 -10.8 -0.2 -0.2 -336

$8.5 W & S 220 Jobs -18.1 -14.0 -0.3 -0.3 -430

$11.0 W & S 300 Jobs -24.7 -20.2 -0.4 -0.4 -579

$15 3 W & S 330 Jobs -25.4 -20.8 -0.4 -0.4 -617

$15.419 W & S 403 Jobs -33.5 -27.4 -0.5 -0.5 -782

$20.379 W & S 500 Jobs -41.1 -33.6 -0.6 -0.6 -965

$25.0 W & S 600 Jobs -49.3 -40.3 -0.7 -0.8 -1158

$30.0 W & S _

33 i

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - _ - _ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - ~

. - . - . - - - , - - . - . - . - - - - - - - - . _ - . - - - . . ~ _ .

)

i d

results can be gained by looking at *,he relative site of the Kansas '

!. economy during the base year of the model 1985. Kansas 1985

[ personal income, when inflated to the expected 1991 price level, is 4

1 almost $37.8 billion,1985 wage and salary income when inflated to l 1991 is almost $20.3 billion, and the total civilian labor force for Kansas in 1985 was about 1.3 million.

Price Change in an Input-output Model This section analyzes the impact of an exogenous change in the electricity price on the economy of the electrical utility service area. Considering a change in the price of electricity exogenous is reasonable since rate schedules of electrical utilities must be ,

approved by a government agency.

Background

Although input-output models are snore frequently used to analyse enployment changea and multiplier ef fects, their usefulness in price analysis has become increasingly clear within the last 15 I years. Moses (1974) presents one of the first clear theoretical presentations of the use of input-output models for analyzing price changes. His approach was a basis of later work in this area.

Blakeslee, and Butcher [1977) use an approach similar to Moses to analyse the impacts of changes in -

price of wheat, electricity, petroleum, and natural gas on a regional economy.

Their primary reason for choosing an input-output methodology is that "I/O analysis allows the researcher to consider explicitly the complex interrelationships that characterize modern economic systems." The mcdel they developed is capable of estimating output 34

and income effects occurring simultaneously in several sectors. ,

Melvin (1976) uses an input-output approach to investigate the energy sector in Canada. He points out that the traditional input-l output approach does not allow for subotitution among inputs in the response to price changes. Although he maintains the *no substitution" framework, he is careful to point out its weaknesses and to suggest improvements.

Cray (1986) looks at energy price changes in Kansas as part of his doctoral dissertation. The Melvin model forms the basis of his 1 analysis with substitution effects not directly incorporated into Cray's model. However, he suggests the lack of substitution creates biases in the analysis. Together, Melvin and Cray provide guidelines for a model which accounts for substitution effects.

Our analysis has relied heavily on the research cited above.

We have complemented this research by incorporating substitution among inputs along the lines suggested by earlier researchers.

Prices and Costs The initial impact of an exogenous change in the price for electricity will fall on the costs of production for all goods and services using electricity as an input. First, an equilibrium vector of cost changes are found within the input-output framework

{ dps . . . dp,) = { dp1. . . dp,) { A ") + { dpf. . . dpl}

! where l ( 0) A* = matrix of regional I/O coefficients dp, = equilibrium cost change for good i dpl= exogenous price change for good i i

35 L, . . - .

i 1

Hence:

(21) { dpn . . . dpd = { dpl. . . dpl} l1 - A V' The impact of an electricity price change on costs of production of an industry depends on the size of the industry's input-output coeffiejent for electricity use.

Changes in equilibrium costs are generally assumed, within an input-output framework, to be passed on as changes in equilibrium pr'.ces. However, we felt this assumption was unreasonable for a few industries where prices are determined in national markets.

Prices for agricultural goods and for oil and gas are assumed to be constant; thus, changes in cost affect profits rather than prices.

Impact of Price Changes on Demand After the impact of an electricity price change on the prices of other goods and services was determined, the implications for the demand for regionally produced goods and services was explored.

In our model, demand is of three types:

1. Consumer demated (Purchases by households): Consumer demand is shared between goods produced within the region and imports.

2. Export ~ demand : Demand originating outside the region for goods and services produced within the region.

3. Intermediate goods demand Demand for the goods and services used in the production processes. As with consumer goods, imports.

demand is split between regionally produced goods and Most inout-output models also include capital goods demand (machinery and equipment) and governinent demand. The exclusion of capital goods demand from the price change model will have few consequences since electricity is not itself a capital good. The 36

exclusion of the government sector is potentially more troubling, Omission of this sector is equivalent to assuming that government i l

l expenditures on electricity remains constant in the f ace of a price change.

Consumer Demand The marginal propensity to consume vector (MPC) indicates the distribution of household consumption among the various types of goods and services. Changes in consumer demand because of the changes in prices were estimated using elasticities of demand. An elasticity of demand is a measure designed to sht.* how quantity demanded changes when price changes. Technically, the elasticity, q,

is the percentage change in quantity divided by the percentage change in price, q ie a negative number since price increases give consumers incentives to cut back on .their purchases. The elasticity of demand can be used to estimate how total expenditures (dollars as opposed to physical quantities) change as price changes, Using A to indicate a change, the formula ist

( % A expend) = (1 + q ) ( % A price)

Estimates of demand elasticities for the electrical utilities have been provided by KCC, and those for other goods were taken from a survey by Mansur and Whalley (1984 ) . For most goods and services, elasticities were between -1 and zero, commonly referred to as the inelastic range. The elasticity estimates were used to estimate changes in consumption and a set of new consumption shares

.(a new MPC vector).

37

Export demand -

Purchases f rom consumers outside the region will also responc to price changes of regionally produced goods. Unfortunately, no published data on the degree of this responsiveness exists. We made the conservative estimate that export elasticities averaged -

.5. This means that a 10 percent increase in the price of a regionally produced product will result in a 5 percent reduction in the physical amount of goods sold to customers outside the region.

Intermediate demand Our assumption, standard for input-output modeling, is that production is for the most part described by a fixed proportion" technology. The assumption simply states that to produce 6 unit of a good, for example, an gallon of paint, you need fixed physical quantities of material and services, for example, 1/2 gallon of latex and 2 oz. of dye. The fixed proportion assumption does not allow any substitution among material ihputs. However, we relaxed this assumption to allow substitution in the use of electricity.

The elasticities of electricity demand for industrial and commercial users provided by KCC indicate that substitution indeed takes place. We assume that industrial and commercial consumers can substitute other energy sources such as natural gas for electricity. Additionally, they can substitute labor for i electricity by changing production approaches and technology.

l While the exact nature of energy-labor substitution varies by industry, most empirical studies show it to be significant. For L

example, Garafalo and Malhotra [1987) find strong evidence of 38

substitutability, with the cross-price elasticity averaging .09 for '

the U.S. as a whole, but varying across regions. rues (1977) finds similar evidence of substitution for Canadian manufacturing. The !

runs study finds two levels of substitution, first between electricity and other energy inputs, and second, between energy and non-energy inputs such as labor. The Tuss study shows that about 2/3 of a change in quantity demanded due to a change in the price of electricity can be accounted for by substitution of other energy sources. We have used this result in our numerical simulations, i The end result of substitution in input demand is that the A matrix, the matrix of production coef ficients, is changed. An increase in the price of electricity is expected to trigger increassd demand for and expenditures on labor and other utilities.

The physical amount of electricity used to produce a unit of industrial or commercial output will fall. However, exggndituret on electricity per unit of output will actually rise when elasticities are in the inelastic range (-l to 0), which is the case with the data provided by KCC.

The results of changes in demand for consumer, export, and intermediate goods are used to construct a new input-output model parallel to the original. The following substitutions are mades mpc* for the original consumption share vector, A"" for the original A matrix, exports

for the original export vector. The model is solved with the new data, and the results for output, payroll, and employment are compared with the original values in order to assess the impact.

39 1

Real versus Nominal Impacts The initial results of the price change model are stated in nominal terms: the flows of goods and services are measured at their current dollar prices, incorporating all results of the price a changes. However, policy makers are generally more interested in real impacts rather than nominal impacts. They are interested in changes in the physical quantities of goods and services produced and_ consumed, rather than in just their dollar values.

The contrast between nominal and real amounts commonly occurs in discussions of inflation. For example, suppose that a worker's wages, measured in dollar terms, have rjone up by 5% this year, from

$20,000 to $21,000. To evaluate whether the worker has become better or worse off, the behavior r>f the prices of the goods and services which the worker consumes needs to be known. Suppose, to continue the example, that inflation in the price of each of the goods and services the worker buys has been 10%. The worker is clearly worse off. His nominal income has gone up,-but his real income, or purchasing power, has gone down.

For this example, calculating an ir.dex of price changes and an indicator of real income is straightforward. The common practice is to fix the initial year price index at 100. Since all prices have gone up by 10%, the second year price index is 110. Real income is found by dividing nominal income by the ratio of the i first and second year price indexes l Real = Nominal x ( Initial Price Index Final Pr.1ce Index 1

40 l

The example leaves the worker with real i.ncome of $19,090, clearly less than he received initially.

In the example above, all prices rise by the same rate, 10%.

Calculations of price indexes are more difficult when each price changes by a different rate. In this case, weighted averages of 1

price changes need to calculated. But the goal is the same. Price I indexes convert from nominal amounts to real amounts Measuring Real Output One of the most important results of the price change model is the impact on output. As stated earlier, the initial results are measured in nominal terms. A price index to convert to real terms can easily be calculated. We know the equilibrium price changes in each sector f rom Equation (26) . The largest price change is in the electric utilities sector, but there are repercussions in almost every other sector of the economy. For each sector, a weight is calculated by dividing that sector's output by total output. Each price change is then multiplied by the appropriate weight. The weighted average price change is found by summing together the weighted price changes for the individual sectors.

A simple example makes the procedure clearer. Suppose the economy consists only of utilities and manufacturing. Utilities l rise in price from a base level of 100 by 10%, and manufacturing rises in price by 3%. The weights in the problem are based on the

! ehare of each specific outpot in total output, as evaluated in the base year prices. The price index rises from 100 to 104.75, showing a 4.75 percent increase in prices. The example shows 41

~_ _ __ _ . . _ . _- - .__ _ _ _ _ - . _ . _ _ _ . _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ .__

nominal output of 2095 and real output of 2000.

Sector Nomina Base Current Output Weights' Weighted Real Output Year Year in Base Prices Output i Price Price Year !

l Prices Manufacturir g 1545 100 103 1500 0.75 77.25 Utilities 550 100 110 500 0.25 27.50 Total 2095 100 2000 1.00 104.75 2000 The procedure just described is similar to that used by the U.S.

Department of Commerce in calculating the GNP Deilator.

Real Wages and Salaries In the U S., over 90 percent of disposable personal income (income af ter taxes) is used for consumption purposes. Thus it is appropriate that the price index used to adjust income flows such as wages and salaries should be a price index based on consumption weights. Procedures for calculating a consumer price index are similar to those described for the output price index. However, the weights used to calculate the index are traditionally based on the initial consumption quantities.

Again, a simple example illustrates the point. Suppose that the economy has only two goods, utilities and manufactured t

products. Personal consumption is generally not the same as l

42

output, since some goods are exported and other goods are used as intermediate products. So the weights for the consumer price index will generally dif fer from those used for the GNP deflator. In the example, nominal consumption rises by 7 percent, f rom 1200 to 1288.

However, real consumption rises only by about 2 percent. On average, the prices of goods purchased by consumers rise by about 5.3 percent.

Sector Base current Base Current Weights Weighted neal Year Year Year Year Prices Cons.

Cons. Cons. Price Delee Manufactur 00 848 100 103 0.67 68.67 Utilities 400 440 100 110 0.33 36.67 Total 1200 1288 100- 1.00 105.33 1223 i

The procedure above is similar to that used by the U.S. Bureco of Labor Statistics in; calculating the Consumer Price Index.

The Results of the Price Change Model The results of the price change model are summarized in Table 2 for KPL service area and T?ble 3 for KG&E service area. To give some perspective on the relative size of the impact of 1 electricity price changes in each of these service areas, the table below . illustrates the size of the economies of the KPL service area, the KGEE service area and the Kansas economy. The data in i

the table are for 1985, but are inflated to the 1991 expected price l

l- 43

! _. _. - . - _ _ _ . . - . - - - - - - - - -- - - - - ~ ~ -

level. One additional qua2itative comparison between the two service areas and Kansas is their per capita personal income. The KG&E service area has a slightly higher per capita personal income than the state of Kansas and significantly higher than KPL's service are 1.

Relative Site of the KPL and KG&E Service Areas 1985 Estimates Inflated to 1991 value Where Appropriate REGION Personal Wage & Salary Civilian Incone Income Labor Force Kansas $33,819 mil. $18,058 mil. 1,354 thous.

KPL Service 8,274 mil. 4,619 mil. 284 thous.

Area

% of Kansas 24.5% 25.6% 26.0%

KG&E Service 7,236 mil. 4,543 mil. 352 thous.

Area

% of Kansas 21,4% 25.2% 20.9%

q 44

l TABLE 2 I

The Impact on the Economy I l

of the KPL Service Area )

of a Change in the Price of Electricity (Estimated in 1991 dollars)

Scenarios: Change in Variables as a Result of an Percontage Electricity Price Change Change in the Price of Electricity Retail State in the KPL Wages & Sales & Income Service Area Output Salaries Use Tax Tax Employ-($ mil.) ($ mil.) ($ mil.) ($ mil.) ment 14 Decrease $8.8 $3.0 30.,1 S0.1 88 5% Decrease 44.7 15.2 0.3 0.3 446 10% Decrease 91.7 30.8 0. 6 , 0.6 903 I 1% Increase -0.7 -3.0 -0.1 -0.1 -88 5% Increase -42.7 -14.9 -0.3 -0.3 -436 10% Increase -83.7 -29.6 -0.6 -0.6 -862 45 l

^

TABLE 3 The Impact on the Economy of the KG&E Service Area of a Change in the Price of Electricity (Estimated in 1991 dollars) a___

Scenarios: Change in Variables as a Result of an Percentage Electricity Price Change Change in the Price of Electricity Retail State in the KG&E Wages & Sales & Income Service Area Output Salaries Use Tax Tax Employ-($ mil.) (S mil.) ($ mil.) ($ mil.) ment 1% Decrease $7.8 $2.7 $0.1 $0.1 61 1.189% $9.4 $3.3 $0.1 30.1 72 Decrease 5% Decrease 40.3 13.8 0.3 0.3 309 10% Decrease 83.5 2,8.1 0.5 0.5 6.3_4 __ _

1% Increase -7.8 -2.7 -0.1 -0.1 -60 5% Increase -37.8 -13.5 -0.3 -0.3 -297 ,

10% Increase -73.4 -26.6 -0.5 -0.5

_ ~583 .f 46 I

~. - . -. . - . - . . . - . . . - - . . - . - - . - . - _ . . . . . - .

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Xanses State University. 19865 .

Donnelly, William A. The Econometrrag g ,EngIcy Demandt A Survqy ,

pf Aeolications. (Praeger, 1987 f.

Funs, Melvyn A. "The Demand for Energy in Canadian Manufacturing." JourntL.gl Econometrics 5, (1977): pp.89-116.

Garofalo, Gasper A. and Devinder M. Malhotra. " Region 31 Capital Forma tion .in U.S. Manufacturing During the 1970s,* Journal pf Recional Science 27(3), (1987): pp. 391-401.

Hsiao, Cheng, Tsui, Kai Y., Mountain, Dean C. and M.W. Lu.ke Chan.

"Modeling Ontario Regional Electricity System Demand Us.ing a

Mixed Fixed and Handom Coefficients Approach." Eggional Science anskyrban EconomJga 19 (1989): pp. 565-567.

Humphrey, David Burras. " Substitution in an Input-Output Table.*

Journal of_ Economics and Business 30(1), (Fall 1977):

pp.38-45.

Junius, Theo. " Price Formation in Input-Output Analysis."

Economics Letters 26(2), (1988): pp. 153-157. +

Lee, Gene K., Leroy L. Blakeslee, Walter R. Butcher. " Effects of Exogenous Price Changes on a Regional Et:cnomy: An Input-Output Analysis." International _gs.glonal science Review 2 (1) , (Fall 1977): pp. 15-27.

Mansur, Ahsan and John Whalley. " Numerical Specification of Applied General Equilibrium Models: . Estimation, Calibration, and Data" in ADolled General Eouilibrium _ Analysis . Ed.

Herbert E. Scarf and John B. Shoven. (Cambridge University Press,-1984). pp.69-127.

Melvin, J.R._ The Effects of _ Enerov _ Pripe Chances on Commodity Prices. Interorovincial Trade, and Emnlovment. Ontario Economic Council. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1976.

Miller, Ronald E. and Peter D. Blair. Inout-outnut Analysis Foundations and Extensions. Englewood Cliffs 4 New Jersey:

PrenticerHall 1965.

47 l

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. - . - . . - . - . - . _ ~ - _ . - . . . - - - . . . . . ~ - . . - . _ - - . . . . - - . .

i

l i V. l

)

4" - Moses, Leon N. toutputs and Prices in Intorindutts.y Models."

j Papers of the Regional Science Association, Vohme M,1974. ,

1 Pleeter, Saul. " Methodologies of Economic Impac,. Analysist An t j' -Overview," in Economic ImDact Ant y ,$ h Met W ocy and M qationg. Ed. by Saul Fleeter. liew York: Martinus 7 Nijhoff P32blishing, 1980.

Runhdi, Ali Ahmed.

Sector of South Australia." "Interfuel Substitution in the Residestial l pp. 177-185.

Enerov Economics, (July, 198 ti) : ,

Taylor, Lester D. "The Demand for Electricity: A Survey." Bell Jou.rnal of_ Economics 6(1), (Spring, 1975): pp.74-110.

i 4

1 i

i t.

48 L

i..__._,_ - ~ . _ . . _ . _ - - ~ _ - - . - - - _ - - - - - - - - - - - - -

APPENDIK C DETAILED RESULTS.OF THE ANALYSIS i

This final appendix contains-the results of our simulations et x.

the sector -level . Each table has a brief description of the scenario simulated, the results of the simulation for each of the 49 ' netors in our models, and an estimation of tin effect of the scenario on the revenue'from the. Kansas sales and use tax and the KattrasLpersonal income tax.

-- The ' first four. tables:in this appendix (Tables 4 through 7)

- are the detailed ~ results of the scenario suggested by the KCC statf of-both-a change-ia employment and wages and salaries and a rate-change. :The next-seven tables-(Tables 8 through 14) contain-the resultc 'of seven different scenarios concerned with employment and wage andEsalary changes. The last twelve tables are estimates of

~

' ~

the_ of fect of) price changes:- the first six are for the KPL service area' economy-(Tables 15 through-20) and the_next six are for the KG&E service-area economy.(Tables 21 through 26).

, 49 -

T

-e y t - - e- , .,% .. , - - ---,% . , , . , . - -ry-r.,- - . _ , - - . . , , - -,-s

.e TABLE 4 AFFECT ON INDIVIOUAL 5tCTOR$ Of A LOS5 Of 330 JOBS AND $15,419.000 IN VAGE$ AND $ ALAR!E$

STATE .

Cnange in Change in. Vages &

Output Salaries Change in

($million) Employment Sector ($million) 5 (10.45) (50.08)

+0.06 3 Livestock -0.38 0 Crops -0.02 0.00 Forestry, Coenercial fisheries 0.00 0.00 0 0

Agrievitr al Services 0,00 0.00 Metal os tonferrous Mineral Mining 0.01 0.00 0 Coal Mining -0.68 -0.03 -l Oil end Gas Extra,etion 0.00 0 0.01 Stone, Clay, G"avel 0.32 -0.07 3

-0.17 7 Construction -1.77 Food Processing 0.01 0

-0.00 -6 Tobacco Processing is.50 -0.10 Fabrics and Apparel 0.04 -0.01 1

-0.02 -1 Luober and Wew 0.09 -2 Furniture and Fixtures 0.30 -0.05 Paper Products 0.11 5

-0.43 Printing and Publishing -0.17 -0.02 1 0.00- 0 Chemicals 0.00 -1 Plastic Material and Synthetics -0.32 -0.04 Drugs and Preparations 0.00 0

-0.01 -1 Paints -0.80 -0.02

. Petroleum refining -0.06 -2

-0.26 1 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.06 0.01 l Leather and Leather Products 0.03 -1

-0.12 at Stone Clay Products -0.09 -0.02 Glass , Steel,, Metal

'fron -0.17 0.08 2 Metai Products. Ordnance, $tructural Metal -0.05 -2 0.15 0 Engines and Machinery 0.02 0 00 Computers and Computing Equipment -

-0.0> -1 0.19 -2 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0.12 -0.03 Electric Components and Parts -0.80 -0.10 3 Motor Vehicles and Equipment -0.02 0.00 0 Aircraft and Parts -0.02 -1

-0.07 Other Transportation Equipment -0.06 -0.02 1

-$ctentific and Photographic Equipment -0.03 -2

-0.14:

Misc. Manufacturing -0.71 -0.17 6 Transportation and Warehousing -0.14 -4

-0.49- -16 Cosmunications Exc -1.16 -0.35 Susiness $ services,ept Radio hadio and TV and TV -0.79 -0.05 -2 Utilities Excluding Electricity -1.13 -64 Wholesale and Retail trade

-).29 0.52 -21

-a.50 7 Finance and Insurance -3.39 -0.12 Real Estate and Rental -0.14 -12

-0.47 29 Hotels, Personal Services 0.99 -0.20 Eating and Drinking Places. -0.05 - e3 0.48 -6 Automobile Repair and Services 0.21 -0.06 Amusements -2,41 0.97 -60 Health Education, Social Services -0.17 -0.09 2 FederalGovernmentEnterprises -0.63 -15.47 -332 Electrical utilities -617 :

($25.36) ($20.71)

TOTAL

.j i

% 1 Change in State Tax pevenue ($million)

'$0.39)

State income Tax -0.38 State Retail Sales and 056 Tax (10.77)

TOTAL 50

I TABLE 5 AFFECT ON INDIVIDUAL SECTOR $ OF 1.189%

DECREA$E IN THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY KG&E SERV!CE AREA Change in Change in Wages &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) ($million) Employment

., Livestock $0.06 30.03 2 Crops .

0.03 0.02 1 Forestry, Comercial Fisheries 0.00 0.00 0 Agricultural Services 0.00 0.00 0 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining 0.11 0.03 1 Oil and Gas Extraction 0.53 0.07 1 Stone, Clay.-Gravel 0.00 0.00 0 Construction 0.23 0.08 2

~ Food Processing 0.20 0.05 1 Tobacco Processing 0.00 0.00 0 Fabrics and Apparel- 0.03 0.02 0 Lumber and Wood 0.01 0.00 0 Furniture and Fixtures 0.01 0.01 0-Paper Products 0.02 0.01 0 Printing and Publishing 0.07 0.04 1 Cheetcals 0.08 0.03 0 Plastic Material and Synthetics 0.00 0.00 0

~ Drugs and Preparations 0.01 0.00 0 Paints 0 01 ti. 00 0 Petroleue 0.65 0.04 Rubber andrefining- --ducts' 1 Plastic Pro O.04 0 02 1 Leather and' Leather Products- 0.00 0W 0 Stone Clay Products 0.02 0.01 Glass, Iron Steel., Metal- 0 0.01 0.01 0

. Metal Prodwts, Oninance, Structural Metal 0.03 0.02 0 Engines and Machinery 0.10 0.08 1 Coop.;ters and Computing Equipment 0.00 0.00 0-Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0.04 0.02 0 Electri: Components and Part: 0.00 0.00 0 Motor Vehicles and Equipment 0.04 0.01 0 Aircraft and Parts 0 29 0.72 3

- Other Transportation Equipment 0.00 -0.00 0 '

Scientific and Photographic Equipment 0.01 0.01 0

. Misc. Manufacturing 0.01 0.01 0 Transportation and Warehousing 0.21 0.12 2 Connunications Exc 0.06 0.04 Business $ services,ept RadioRadio and TVand TV 0.19 1

0.14 3 Utilities Excludina Electricity 0.65 0.05 2 Wholesale and Retall trade 0.59 0.43 13 Finance and-Insurance 0.17 0.13 3 Real Estate and Rental 0.48- 0.05 1 Hotels. Personal services 0.07 0.05 3 Eating and Drinking' Places 0.15 0.08 6 Automobile Repair and Services 0.08 0.02 1 Amusements' O.03 0.02 1 Health Education, Social Se vices .0.38 0.33 9 FederalGovernmentEnterprises 0.00 0.02 0

-Electrical Utilities- 3.61 0.43 12 i TOTAL 19.34 13.25 72 Change in State Tax Revenue ($million)

State Income Tax 10.06 State Retail Sales and Use Tax 0.06 TOTAL $0.12 51

TARE 6 THE NET AFFECT ON INDIVIOUAL SECTOR $ OF A LOS$ OF 330 JOBS

$15,419,000 INhaGE$AND$ALARIES.ANDAPQlCEDECREASEOF1.189%

(UPPER BOUND)

STATE Change in Change in Wages &

Output Salaries Change ir Sector ($million) ($million) Employment Livestock ($0.39) ($0.06) -3 Crops -0.35 -0.04 Forestry. Connercial Fisheries -2

-0.02 0.00 0 Agricultural Services 0.00 0.00 0 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 toal Mining 0.10 0.02 1 011 and Gas Extraction -0.14 0.04 0 Stone. Clay, Gravel -0.01 0.00 0 Construction -0.09 0.02 -1 Food Processing -1.55 -0.13 -6 Tobacco Processing -0.09 0.00 0 Fabrics and Apparel -0.47 -0.09 -5 Lunber and Wood -0.04 0.01 0 Furniture ard Fixtures -0.08 -0.02 -1 Paper Products -0.28 0.04 -2 PrintinC and Publishing -0.37 -0.07 -4 Chemicals -0.09 0.01 0 Plattic Nsterial and Synthetics 0.00 0.00 0 Orugs and Preparations -0.31 -0.04 Paints -1

-0.01 0.00 0 Petroleue refining -0.15 0.02 0 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.22 -0.03 -1 Leather and Leather Products *0.06 -0.01 -1 Stone Clay Products -0.10 -0.02 Glass, fron Steel., Metal -1

-0.09 0.01 -1 Metsi Products, Ordnance, Structural Metal -0.14 0.03 -1 Engines and Machinery -0.05 0.04 0 Computers and Computing touipment -0.01 0.00 0 Electrical Equipment and Applian:es -0.15 -0.02 -1 Electric Components and Parts 0.11 -0.03 -1 Motor Vehicles and Equipment -0.76 -0.09 -2 Aircraf t and Parts. 0.28 0.72 3 Other Transportation Equipment -0.07 -0.01 -l

$cientific and Photographic Equipment -0.05 0.01 -1 Misc. Manufacturing -0.13 -0.03 -1 Transportation and Warehousing -0.50 -0.05 -4 Coeur;nications. Except Radio and TV -0.43 -0.10 -3 Business $ services. Radio and TV -0.97 -0.22 -14 Utilities Excluding Electricity -0.14 0.00 0 Wholesale and Retail. trade -2.70 -0.70 -51 Finance and Insurance -1.33 -0.38 -19 Real Estate and Rental -2.91 -0.07 -6 Hotels, Personal Services -0 40 -0.08 -10 Eating and Orinking Places -0.84 -0.12 -23 Automobile Repair and Services -0.39 -0.03 Amusements

-2

-0.18 -0.04 -5 Health Educati':n, Social Services -2.04 -0.64 -50 Federal Government Enterprises -0.17 -0.08 -2 Electrical Utilities 2.97 -15.04 -319

-TOTAL ($16.02) ($17.46) -544 Change in State Tax Revenue ($million)

State Income Tax ($0.31)

State Retail St.les and Use Tax -0.30 l TOTAL {

(30.61) 52

TABLE 7 THE NET AFFECT ON INDIVIOUAL SECTOR $ OF A LOS$ OF 330 JOBS,

$15.419.000 IN WAGES ANO $ALARIES, AND A PRICE DECREASE OF 1.189%

(LOWER BOUND)

STATE Change in Change in Waces &

Output Salaries Change in Sector (1million) ($million) Empleyment Livestock ($0.30) ($0.04) 2 Crops 0.27 Forestry, Comercia) Fisheries 0.03 -2

-0.02 0.00 0 Agricultural Services 0.00 0.00 0 Metal and honferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining 0.10 0.02 1 Oil and Gas btraction 0.00 0.04 0 Stone. Clay. Gravel -0.01 0.00 0 Construction 0.02 0.03 0 Food Processing -1.19 -0.09 -5 Tobacco Processing -0.07 0.00 0 Fabrics and Apparel -0.37 -0.06 -4 Lumber and Wood -0.03 0.00 0 Furniture and Fixtures -0.06 -0.01 -1 Paper Products -0.22 0.03 -1 Printing and Publishing -0.27 -0.05 3 Checicals -0.05 0.02 0 Plastic Material and Synthetics 0.00 0.00 0 Drugs and Preparations -0.24 -0.03 -1 Paints 0.00 0.00 0 Petroleum refining 0.02 0.03 0 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.16 -0.02 1 Leather and Leather Products -0.05 0.01 1 Glass.$ teel, MetalStone, Clay Products -0.07 -0.01 0 tron -0.07 -0.01 0 MetalProducts. Ordnance,StructuralMetal -0.11 -0.02 -1 Engines and Machinery -0.01 0.05 0 Computers and Computing Equipment -0.01 0.00 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances -0.11 -0.01 -1 Electric Components and Parts -0.09 -0.02 -1 Motor Vehicles and Equipment -0.59 -0.07 2 Aircraf t and Parts 0.28 0.72 3 Other Transportation Equipment -0.05 -0.01 -1 Scientific and Photographic Equipment -0.04 -0.01 0 Misc. Manufacturing -0.10 -0.02 -1 Transportation and Warehousing -0.35 0.01 -3 Communications Exc -0.32 -0.07 -3 Business 5 services.ept Radio Radio and TV and TV -0.73 -0.14 -10 Utilities Excluding Electricity 0.03 0.01 0 Wholesale and Retail trade -2.01 -0.46 37 Finance and Insurance -1.02 -0.28 -14 Real Estate and Rental 2.20 -0.05 4 Hotels, Personal Services -0.30 -0.06 -7 Eating and Orinking Places -0.63 -0.0B -17 Automobile Repair and Services -0.29 -0.02 2 Amusements -0.13 -0.03 -4 Health Education, Social Services 1.53 -0.44 -38 FederalGovernmentEnterprises 0.13 -0.06 -2 Electrical Utilities 3.11 -15.03 -319 TOTAL ($10.68) ($16.34) -484 Change in State Tax Revenue ($rillion)

State income Tax (50.31)

State Retail Sales and Use Tax -0.30 TOTAL ($0.61) 53 l'

?ABLE 8 AFFECT ON INDIVIDUAL SECTORS OF A LOS$ OF 100 JOBS AND 14,800,000 IN WAGES AND St,LARIES STATE Change in Change in Wages &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) (Smillion) Employment Livestock (30.14)

Crops (50.03) 2

-0.12 -0.02 -1 Forestry, Comercial Fisheries -0.01 0.00 Agricultural Services 0.00 0

0.00 0 Metal and Nonferrous Minerai Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Oil and Gas Extraction -0.21 -0.01 0 Stone, Clay Gravel 0.00 0.00 Construction 0

-0.10 -0.12 -1 Food Processing Tobacco Processing

-0.55 s '5 -2 Fabrics and Apparel -0.03 n.00 0

-0.16 -0.03 -2 Lumber and Wood -0.01 0.00 0 Furniture and Fixtures -0.03 -0.01 0 Paper Products .

-0.09 0.02 -1 Printing and Publishing -0.14 -0.04 2 Chemicals -0.05 Plastic Material and Synthetics -0.01 0 Orugs and Preparations 0.00 0.00 0

-0.10 -0.01 0 Paints 0.00 Petroleum refining 0.00 0

-0.25 0.01 0 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.08 -0.02 -1 Leather and Leather Products -0.02 0.00 0 Glass, Stone, Clay Products -0.04 -0.01 0 tron- Steel. Metal -0.03 -0.01 0 Metai Products. Ordnance. Structural Metal -0.05 -0.01 -1 Engines ,and Machinery -0.05 Computers and Computing Equipment -0.01 -1 0,00 0.00 0 t'actrical Equipment and Appliances -0.06 -0.01 Elet,tric Components and Parts 0

-0.04 -0.01 0 Motor Vehicles and Equipment -0.25 -0.03 Aircraft and Parts -1 0.00 0.00 0 Other Transportation Equipment -0.02 Scientific and Photographic Equipment -0.01 0

-0.02 0.00 0 Misc Manufacturing -0.04 -0.01 -1 Transportation and Warehousing -0.22 -0.05 Communications Exc -2 Business $ services,eptRadioandTV -0.15 -0.04 -1 Radio and TV -0.36 -0.11 -5 Utilities Excluding Electricity -0.25 -0.02 -l Wholesale and Retail trade 1.02 -0.35 20 Finance and Insurance -0.47 -0.16 -7 Real Estate and Rental -1.06 -0.04 -2 Hotels, Personal Services -0.15 Eating and Drinking Places -0.04 -4 utomobile Repair and Services -0.31 -0.06 -9 ausements

-0.15 -0.02 -1

-0.06 -0.02 -2

.ealth Education, Social Services -0.75 0.30 FederalGovernmentEnterprises -19

-0.05 -0.03 -1 Electrical Utilities -0.20 -4.82 -100 TOTAL (17.89) (16.45) -189 Change in State Tax Revenue ($million)

State Income Tax (10.12)

State Retail Sales and Use Tax -0.12 TOTAL (50.24) 54

TABLE 9 AFFECT ON 1NDIVIOUAL SECTORS Or A LOSS OF 178 JOBS AND $8,500,000 IN WAGE $ AND $ ALAR!E$

$ TATE Change in Change in Weges &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) ($million) Employment Linestock Crops (30.20) (30.04) -3 0.17 -0.03 Forestry, Comercial Fisheries -0.01 2

Agricultural Services 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0

. Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Min ug 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining -0.01 011 and Gas Extraction 0.00 0 Stone. Clay, Gravel 0.30 -0.01 0 Construction 0.00 0.00 0

-0.14 -0.03 -1 Food Processing 0.78 Tobacco Processing 0.08 4 Fabrics and Apparel -0.04 0.00 0

-0.22 -0.04 -3 Lumber and Wood. -0.02 0.00 0 Furniture and Fixtures -0.04 -0.01

. Paper Products -1

-0.13 -0.02 Printing and Publishing -0.19 -0.05 1

Chemicals -3

-0.07 -0.01 0 Plastic Material and Synthetics 0.00 0.00 Drugs and Preparations 0 Paints

-0.14 -0.02 -1 0.00 0.00 0 Petroleum refining -0.35 -0.01 0 Rubber and Plastic Products- -0.12 0.03 Leather and Leather Products -1 Glass, Stone, Clay Products -0.03 -0.01 1

-0.05 -0.01 -1 fron Steel. Metal -0.04 -0.01 0 Metal Products, Ordnance, Structural Metal -0.08 Engines and Machinery -0.02- -1

-0.07 -0.02 1 Computers and Computing Equipment -0.01 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0.00 0 Electric Components and Parts -0.08 -0.02 -1

-0.05 -0.02 -1 Motor' Vehicles and Equipment -0.36 -0.04 Aircraft ar.d Parts -1

-0.01 C.00 0 Other Transportation Equipment -0.03 -0.01 0 Scientific and Photographic Equipment -0.03 -0.01 Misc. Manufacturing 0

-0.06 -0.02 -1 Transportation and Warehousing -0.32 -0.07 -4 Communicati0ns Exc -0.21 Business $ services.ept Radio and TV 0.06 -2 Radio and TV -0.51 -0.16 Utilities Excluding Electricity' -9

-0.35 -0.02 -1 Wholesale and Retati trade -1.46 -0.50 Finance and IM urance -35 0.67 0.23 -12 Real Estate and Rental . -1.50 -0.05 -4 Hotels, Personal Services- -0.21 Eating and Drinking Places -0.06 -7 Automobile Repair and Services 0.44 -0.09 -16 Amus ements -

-0.21 -0.02 -2

-0.09

-0.03 -3 Health Education. Social Services -1.07 -0.43 -33

' Federal Government Enterprises -0.08 Electrical Utilities -0.04 -1

-0.28 -8.52 -179 TOTAL

($11.23) ($10.84) -336

~

Change in State Tax Revenue ($million)

State income Tax (10.21)

State Retail Sales and Use Tax -0.20 TOTAL (30.40) 55

TABLE 10 AFFECT ON INDIVIOUAL $EC10R$ OF a LOSS Or 220 J00$'

AND $11.000.000-lN WAGE $ ANO $ALARIES.

$ TATE Change in Change in Wages &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) ($million) Employment Livestock (10.32) (10.06) 4 Crops -0.27 0.04 -2 Forestry, Commercial Fisheries 0.02 0.00 0 Agricultural Services 0.00 0.00 0 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining 0.01 0.00 0 Oil and Gas Extraction 0.48 -0.02 -1 Stone. Clay Gravel- 0.01 0.00 0 tonst ruct t on - 0.23 -0.05 -2 Food Processing -1.26 -0.12 -5 Tobacco Processing 0.06 0.00 0 Fabrics and Apparel' 0.36 -0.07 4 Lumber and Wood -0.03 0.01 0 Furniture and Fixtures -0.06 -0.02 -1 Paper Products -0.22 -0.04 2 Printing and Publishing -0.31 -0.08 -4 Chemicals -0.1C -0.01 O

~ Plastic Material and Synthetic; 0.00 0.00 0 Drugs and Preparations -0.23 0.03 1 Paints -0.01 0.00 0 Petroleum refining- -

-0.57 -0.01 0 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.19 -0.04 1 Leather and Leather Products -0.04 0.01 1 Glass, Stone, Clay Products -0.08 -0.02 Iron -0.07 0.01

-Metal'Products, Steel. Metal -1 Ordnance. Structural Metal . -0.12 . -0,03 1 Engines and Machinery -0.11 -0.03 -1 Computers and Computing Equipment -0.01 0.00 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances -0.13 '-0.03 -1 Electric Components and Parts -0.08 0.02' -1 Motor. Vehicles and Equipment. -0.57 0.07 2 Aircraft and Parts --0.01 - 0.00. 0 4

Other Transportation Equipment -0.05 -0.01 -1 Scientific and Photographic Equipment -0.04 -0.01 0 Misc. Manufacturing -0.10- -0.02 -1 Transportation and Warehousing -0.51 -0.12 -5 Exc t Radio and TV -0.35 -0.10 -3

.-Business Cosmunications}ces.ekadio

$ serv -

and TV 0.83 -0.25 -12 Utilities Excluding Electricity -0.57 -0.04 -1

- Wholesale anc' Retail trade 2,34 -0.80 -45 Finance and Insurance. -1.07 -0.37 -15 Real Estate and Rental -2.42 -0.09 -5 Hotels, Personal Services -0.33 -0.10 -9

-Eating and Drinking Places 0.71 -0.14 -20 Automobile Repair and Services -0.34 -0.04 -2

~ Amusements *0.15 Health Education. Social Services -0.04- -a

-1.72 FederalGovernmentEnterprises -0.69 42

-0.12 -0.07 -2 Electrical Utilities -0.45 11.04 -226

TOTAL ($10.09) ($14.78) -430 Change in State Tax Revenue ($mi111on)

State income Tax (10.28)

State Retail Sales and Use Tax -0.27 TOTAL (10.55) 56 L

. _ _ ~ - - . . - - -

TABLE 11 AFFECT ON INDIVIDUAL SECTOR $ OF A LOS$ OF 300 JOBS AND $15,000,000 lN WA0ES AND $ALARIES STATE Change in Change in Wages &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) ($taillion) Employment Livestock (30.44)

Croos (10.08) 5 Forestry. Connercial Fisheries

-0.37 -0.06 3 [

Agricultural Services -0.02 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining- 0.01 0.00 011 and Gas Extraction 0 Stone.-Clay, Gravel 0.66 -0.03 -l 0.01 0.00 0 Construction- -0.31 -0.06 Food Processing 2

-1.72 0.17 -7 Tobacco Processing 0.09 0.00 0 Fabrics and Apparel -0.49 Lumber and Wood

-0.10 -6

-0.04 +0.01 0 Furniture and Fixtures- -0.09 0.02 -1 Paper Products 0.29 -0.05 2 Printino and Publishing 0.42 0.'11 Chemicals -5 0.16 -0.02 Plastic Material and Synthetics- 0.00. 0.00 1

Drugs and Preparations 0

-0.31 0.04 -1

' Paint) -0.01 0.00 t 0

Petroleva -0.77. -0.02 Rubber and refining Plastic Products.

1

-0.25 -0.06 2 Leather end Leather Products' 0.06 -0.01 -1 Stone 0.12 Glass,$

fron - teel,,MetalClay Products- 0.03 -1

-0.09 0.02 -1 MetalProducts. Ordnance,$tructuralMetal Engines and Machinery

-0.16 0.04 2

-0.14 -0.05 -2 Computers and Computing Equipment - -0.02 0.00 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0

-0.18 -0.03 -1 Electric Components and Parts

-0.11 -0.03 -1 Motor Vehicles and Equipment -0.78 -0.10 L '

Aircraft and Parts -3

-0.01 0.00 0 Other -Transportation Equipment -0.07 r

-0.02 - Scientific and Photographic Equipment -0.06 -0.02 -1 Misc. Manufacturing -0.14 -0.03 Transportation and Warehousing- -2 .

-0.70 0.16 -6 Communications Exc -0.47 -0.13 Business 5 services.ept Radio Radio and TVand TV 4

-1.13 .-0.34 -16 Utilities Excluding Electricity -0.77 ~-0.05 -2

- Wholesale and Retail trade- -3.20 1,10- 62 Finance and Insurance -l.46 -0.50 21 Real Estate and Rental- -3.30 -0.12 -7 Hotels, Personal-Services -0.45 J Eating and Drinkin -0.14 -12 Autosoleile Repair andg Places -0.97 -0.20- -28 Services- -0.46 -0.05 -3 Amusements -0.20 L - Health Education, Social Services

-0.06- -6 FederalGovernmentEnterprises -2.35 -0.94 5B

-0.16 - -0.09 -2 Electrical Utilities -0.62 -15.05 -301 TOTAL (324.67) (520.15) -579 L

i Change in State-Tax Revenue -($million)

State income Tax (50.3B)

State Retail Sales and Use Tax -0.37 TOTAL ($0.75) 57 L

i.

( !

?ABLE l'd AFFECT ON INDIVIDUAL SECTOPS Or A LOS$ Or 403 JOBS AND $20,379,000 IN WAGES AND SALARIE$

STATE Change in Change in Waoes &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million). ($million) Employment Livestock (50.60) (10.11) 1 Crops 0.50

-Forestry. Commercial Fisheries -0.08 -5

-0.03 0.00 0 Agricultural Services -0.01 0.00 0 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining -0.02 0.00 0 Oil and Gas Extraction 0.90 -0.04 l Stone. Clay. Gravel

-0.01 0.00 0 Construe: ion -0.42 -0.09 -3 Food Processing 2.33 -0.23 -10 Tobacco Processing -0.12 -0.01 0 Fabrics and Apparel -0.56 -0.13 Lumber and Wood

-8

-0.06 -0.01 -1 Furniture and Fixtures -0.12 -0.03 -1 Paper Products -0.40 -0.07 -3 Printing and Publishing -0.57 -0.15 -7 Chemicals -0.22 Plastic Material and ~$ynthetics

-0.03 -)

0.01 0.00 0 Drugs and Preparations -0.43 -0.06 Paints -2

-0.01- 0.00 0 Petroleue refining -1.05 -0.02 1 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.35 -0.08 -3 Leather and Leather Products -0.08 -0.02 -l Glass Stone -0.16 -0.04 l

>1ron ,$ teel,. Metal Clay Products

-0.12 -0.02 1 Metal Products. Ordnance, Structural Metal -0.22 -0.06 -2 Engines and Machinery -0.20 -0.06 2 Computers and Computing Equipment -0.02 0.00 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0.25 0.05 -2 Electric Components and Parts -0.15 0.05 Motor Vehicles and Equipment -2

-1,06 -0.13 -4 Aircraft and Parts -0.02 -0.01 0

- Other Transportation Equipeent -0.09 -0.02 --1 Scientific and Photographic Equipment -0.08 -0.02 -1 Misc. Manufacturing -0.19 -0.05 -2 Transportation and Warehousing -0.94 0.22 -9 Communications Except Radio and TV -0.64- -0.18 Business $ services Radio and TV -1.53 -0.46 -22 Utilities Excludin Electricity -1.05 -0.07 -2

' Wholesale and'Reta 1 trade. -4.34 -1.49 -84 Finance and Insurance- -1.99 -0.68 -28 Real Estate and Rental -4.48 -0.16 -9 Hotels, Personal Services -0.62- -0.18 Eating and Orinking Places- -16

-1.31 -0.27 -38 Automobile Repair and Services -0.63 -0.07 -4 Amusements -0.27 Health Education, Social Services -0.07 7

-3.19 - 1. 2 8 - -79 Federal Government Enterprises -0.22 -0.12

-3 Electrical Utilities -0.84 -20.45 -405 TOTAL ($33.52) (127.37) -782 Change in State Tax' Revenue ($million)

State income Tax-- (10.52)

State Retail Sales and Use Tax -0.50 TOTAL

($1.02) 58

TABLE 13 AFFECT ON IN0lVIDUAL SECTOR $ OF A LOSS OF $00 J08$

AND $25.000,000 IN WAGES AND $ALARIES

$iATE-Change in Change in Wages &

Output . Salaries Change in Sector ($aillion) ($million) Employment Livestock ($0.73) (50.14) -8 Crops 0.62 -0.09 Forestry, Comercial Fisheries -6 0.04 0.00 0 Agricultural Services . -0.01 0.00 0 Metal and Nenferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining -0.02 0.00 0 Oil and Gas Extraction 1.10 ~-0.04 -l

$ tone, Clay.. Gravel -0.02 0.00 0 Construction -0.51 -0.11 -4 Food Processing -2.86 -0.28 -12 Tobacco Processing -0.14 -0.01 0 Fabrics and Apparel -0.81 -0.16 10 Lumber and Wood -0.07 -0.02 -1 Furniture and Fixtures -0.14 -0.04 -2 Paper Products 0.49 -0.08 3

-Printino and Publishing -0.70 -0.19 .8 Chemicals 0.27 -0.03 1 Plastic Material and Synthetics 0.01 0.00 0 Drugs end. Preparations -0.52 -0.07 2 Paints -0.02 0.00 0 Petroleum refining .

1.29 -0.03 -1 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.42 -0.09 - -3 Leather and leather Products -0.10 -0.02 -2 Glass,- Stone, Clay Products -0.19 -0.04 -2 fron Steel. Metal 0.15 -0.03 -1 Meta). Products. Ordnance,$tructuralMetal -0.27 -0.07 Engines and Machinery. -3 -

-0.24 -0.08 -3 Computers and Computing Equipment -0.03 -0.01 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0.31 0.06 2

-Electric Components and Parts - 0.19 -0.06 -2 Motor-Vehicles and Equipment =-1.30 -0.16 4 Aircraf t and Parts - -0.02 -0.01 0 Other Transportatton'Equipetnt -0.11 -0.03 -l Scientific and Photographic Equipment 0.10 -0.03 -l' Misc. Manufacturing -

-0.23 -0.06 -3 Transportation and Warehousing 1-. 16 0.27 -10 Comunications Exc -0.79 -0.22 -6 Business $servlees,eptRadioandTV Radio and TV -1.88 -0.57 -27

-Utilities Excluding Electricity -1.29 -0.08 -3 Wholesale and Retail trade -5.33 -1.83 -103 Finance and Insurance -2.44. 40.84 -35 Real Estate and Rental -5.50 -0.20 -11 Hotels. Personal Services -0.76 -0.23 -20 Eating and Drinkin -1,61 -0.33

' Automobile Repair.g-Places -46 and Services. -0.77 0.08 4 Amusements -0.33 -0;09 -9 Health Education. Social Services -3.91 -1.57 -96 Federal Government Enterprises 0.27 -0.15 4 Electrical Utilities -1.03 -25.09 -502 TOTAL ($41.12) (133.58) ' -965 Change _in State Tax Revenue ($million)

State Income Tax ($0.64)

State Retail Sales and Use Tax 0.61 TOTAL ($1.25) 59

TABLE 14 AFFECT ON IN0lVIDUAL SECTOR $ Or A LOS5 OF 600 JOBS AND $30,000,000 IN WAGE 3 AND SALARIES STATE Change in Change in Wages &

Outout Salaries Change in Sector ($aillion) ($mfilion) Employment

. Livestock ($0.86)

Crops ($0.16) -10

-0.74 -0.11 -7

. Forestry, Connercial Fisheries -0.04 Agricultural Services 0.00 0

-0.01 0.00 0 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal' Mining -0.03 Oil and Gas Extraction -0.01 0

-1,32 0.05 2-

-Stone, Clay, Gravel -0.02 Construction- 0.01 0

-0.62 -0.13 -5 Food Processirig -3.44

Tobacco Processing -0.33 -14

-0.17 - -0.01 0 Fabrics and Apparel. -0.98 Lumber and Wood

-0.20 -11

-0.09 Furniture and Fixtures -0.02 l Paper Products -0.17 -0.05 2

-0.59 -0.10 4

' Printing and Publishing -0.84: --0.22 -10 Chemicals -0.32 -0.04 -1

. Plastic Material and Synthetics -0.01 0 00 0-Drugs and Preparations -0.63 Paints -0.09 -3

-0.02 0.00 0 Petroleum refining -1.55 --0.04 -1 Rubber and Plastic Products --0.51 -0.11 -4 Leather and Leather Products -0.12 -0.03 -2

Glass,-Stone, Clay Products -0.23 -0.05

-Iron Steel, Metal- -2

-0.18 -0.03 -1 Metal Products. Ordnance, Structural Metal -0.33 Engines and Machinery -0.08 ' -3'

-0.29 -0.09 -3 Computers and Computing Equipeent -0.03 -0.01 Electr.ical Equipment and Appliances 0

-0.37 -0.07 -3 Electric Components and Parts- -0.23 -0.07 -3 Motor Vehicles and Equipment. -1.56 -0.20 Aircraft and Parts -5

-0.03 -0.01 Other Transportation Equipment -0.14 -0.03 Scientific and Photographic Equipment. -2

---0.12 -0.03 -1.

Misc. Manufacturing -0.27 -0.07 -3 Transportation and Warehousing -1.39 -0.32 -13

-Communications Exc -0.94 -0.26 Susiness $ services.ept Radio

- Radio and TV and TV -2.25

~ Utilities Excluding Electricity -0.68 -32

-1.55 -0,10 -3 Wholesale and Retail trade -6.39 --2.19- -124 Finance and Insurance -2.92 -1.01 -41 Real Estate and Rental -6.60 -0.24- -13

Notels, Personal Services -0.91 Eating and Drinking Places- -0.27 -24

~ Automobile Repair and Services

-1.93 -0.39 .-56'

--0.93 -0.10- -5 Amusements- -0.40 Health Education,.$ocial Services -0.11 -11.

.-4.69 -1.89 ' -116

Federa,l Government Enterprises -0.33 -0.18 Electrical Utilities . -4

-1.23 -30.10 ' -603 TOTAL ($49.34). ($40.30) -1158 Change in State Tax Revenue ($million)

State Income Tax ($0.77)

State Retail Sales and Use Tax -0.73 TOTAL

($1.50) 60

TABLE 15 AFFECT ON INDIVIDUAL SECTORS Or 14 DECREASE IN THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY KPL SERVICE AREA Change in Change in Wages &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) ($million) Employment Livestock $0.13 Crops $0.10 3 Forestry Commercial Fisheries 0.08 0.08 3 Agricultural Services 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 0.00 0 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining 0.01 Oil and Oas Extraction 0.00 0 Stone, Clay, Gravel 0.26 0.02 0 Construction 0.01 0.00 0 0.25 0.08 Food Processing 0.46 2

Tobacco Processing 0.14 2 Fabrics and Apparel 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 0.03 1 Lumber and Wood 0.01 0.01 0 Furniture and Fixtures 0.01 0.01 Paper Products 0 0.06 0.03 Printing and Publishing 0.11 0.09 1

Chemicals 1 0.08 0.03 Plastic Material and Synthetics 0.00 0.00 1

Drugs and Preparations 0 0.04 0.01 Paints 0 0.00 0.00 Petroleum refining 0.18 0

0.01 0 Rubber and Plastic Products 0.10 0.07 1 Leather and Leather Products 0.01 0.01 0 Glass, tron Steel, MetalStone, Clay Products 0.03 0.02 0 0.05 0.03

- Metal Products, Ordnance, Structural Metal 0.06 1

Engines and Machinery 0.03 1 0.08 0.05 1 Computers and Computing Eqvii> ment ' O.00 Electrical Equipeint and Appliances 0.00 3 Electric Components and Parts 0.05 0.02 0 Motor Vehicles and Equipment A01 0.01 0 0.13 0.03 0 Aircraft and Parts 0.00 0.00 Other Transportation Equipwnt 0.01 0

' Scientific and Photographic Equipment 0.01 0 0.41 0.00 0 Misc. Manufacturing 1 02

- Transportation and Warehousing 0.01 0 Coassunications, Except Radio and TV 0.16 0.07 2 Business $ services, Radio and TV 0.10 0.07 1 0.26 0.17 4 Utilities Excluding Electricity 1.05 0.09 2 WMlesale and Retail trade 4.72 0.55 19 Finance and Insurance 0.26 0.21 4 Real Estate and Rental 0.52 0.05 Hotels, Personal Services 0.09 2

Eating and Drinking Places 0.07 4 Automobile Repair and Services 0.20 0.11 9 0.09 0.02 1 Amusements 0.04 0.02 Health Education, Social Services 0.46 1

Federai Government Enterprises 0.43 13 0.05 0.05 Electrical Utilities 2.a8 0.19 1

5 TOTAL $8.77 1.1.02 88 Change in State Tax Revenue ($million)

State income Tax $0.06 State Retail Sales and Use Tax 0.06 TOTAL 10.11 61 I

l 0

TABLE 16

-AFFECT ON INDIVIDUAL SECTOR $ OF 5%

DECREA$t IN THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY-KPL SERVict AREA ui Change in Change in Weges &

Output Salaries Changes in sector ($million) ($million) Employment Livestock- 30 64 10.49 Crops 16 0.43 0.39 15 Forestry, Conmercial Fisheries 0.00 0.00 0 Agricultural Services 0.03 0.02 1 Hetal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining 0.04 0.01 0 011 and Gas Extraction 1.31 0.09 2 Stone, Clay, Gravel 0.04 0.02 1 Construction 1.26 0.41 11 Food Processina 2.33 0.71 11 Tobacco Procesiing 0.02 0.01 0 i~ ' Fabrics and Apperel 0.25 0.13 4 Lumber and Wood 0.07 0.03 1

Furniture and Fixtures 0.06 0.03 Paper Products- 0.32 1

4 0.16 3-Printina and Publishing 0.56 0.46 7 Chemicals. 0.40 0.16 3 Plastic Material and Synthetics .0.00 0.00 .0 Drugs and Preparations 0.18 0.05 1 Paints 0.00- 0.00 0 Petroleum refining 0.90: 0.04 1 Rubber and Plastic Products 0.46 - 0.34 4 Leather and Leather Products 0.05 0.03 1 Glass, Stone Clay Products 0.17 0.08 2 fron Metal 0.28 0.13 L Metal:$ teel..

Products. Ordnance, structural Metal 0.28 0.15 3

3 Engines and Machinery- 0.41 0.25 5

' Computers and Computing Equipment 0.00 0.00 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0.24 0.08- 2-Electr.ic Components and Parts' O.06 0.04 1 Motor Vehicles and Equipment, 0.67- -0.17 3 e' ~Aircraf1 and Parts = : 0.01 0.00 0 Other Transportation Equipment . 0.08 -0.06 1 Scientific and Photographic Equipment .0.03 0.02- 0

. Misc. Manufacturina '0.08 0.05 1

. Transportation and" Warehousing 0.70 0.37 9 Connunicationsi Except Radio and.TV. ; 0. 0.34 4 Business $ services ' Radio and TV ' l.52 0.84- 21 Utilities Excludina Electricity 5.31: 0.47 12

-Wholesale end Retall trade- 3.62. -2.77 95 Finance and Insurance- .l.32 :1.06 =22 Real Estate and Rental . 2.60 0.26 - 9 Hotels, Personal Services <0.46- 0.35 18 Eating and Drinking Places. 1.02 0.53 44 Automobile Repair and Services 0.47 0.12 4

.- Amusements 0.18 '0.11 7

' Health Education, Social services 2.30- 2.14 65

Federal Government Enterprises 0.24 0.24 5

' Electrical Utilities 12.92 0.98- 27 TOTAL -344.69 $15.22 446-Change in state Tax Revenue (Smillion)

State Income Tax 10.29 State Retail Sales and Use Tax 0.28 TOTAL 50.57 62

l TABLE 17 i

-1 AFFECT ON INDIVIOUAL SECTORS Or 10%

DECREASE IN THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY KPL SERVICE AREA Change in Change in Wages &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million): ($million) Employment

= Livestock .$1.29 $0.98 32 Crops 0.86 0.79 30 Forestry, Commercial Fisheries 0.01- 0.00 0 Agricultural Services 0.05 0.04 1 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0

. Coal Mining 0.08 0.02 1

' 011-and Gas Extraction 2.67 0.18 4

-Stone, Clay.. Gravel 0.07 0.05 1 Construction 2.61 0.83 23 Food Processing 4.69 -1.43 23 Tobacco Processing 0.04 0.01 0 Fabrics and Apparel 0.50 0.27 8

-Lumber and Wood 0.13 0.05 2 Furniture and Fixtures 0.11 0.07 1 Paper Products 0.65 0.32 6 Printing and Publishing 1.13 0.93 14 Chemicals - 0.82 0.32 6 Plastic Material and $ynthetics 0.00 0.00 0 Drugs and Preparations 0.36 0.12 2 Paints 0.01 0.00 0 Petroleum refining' 1.86 0.08 2 Rubber and Plastic Products 0.98 0.69 9

~ Leather and. Leather Products 0.11 0.06 2 Glass Stone Clay Products 0.34 0.17 4

-Iron ; Steel,, Metal 0.57 0.26 6 Metal Products, Ordnance, Structural Metal 0.57 0.30 6 Engines and Machinery 0.84 0.50 11 Computers and Computing Equipment.- 0.01 0.01 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0.49 0.17 5

, Electric Components and Parts' O.12 0.09 2 Motor Vehicles and Equipment 1.36 0.34 5 Aircraft'and Parts 0.02 0.01 0

' Other Transportation Equipment 0.16 0.12 2

. Scientific and Photographic Equipment 0.05 0.03' .1 Misc. Manufacturing 0.16 0.10 2

Transportation'and Warehousing 'l.62 0.74 19 Communications Except Radio and TV 0.98 0.69 9

- Business SterY Ces, Radio and TV 2.68 1.70 43 Utilities Excluding Electricity- 10.77 0.96 2:

Wholesale snd Retail trade 7.32 5.58 192 Finance and Insurance 2.67 2.15 44

'Real Estate and Rental-5.26 0.52 18

Hotels, Personal- Services 0.93 0.71 36 Eating and Drinkin 2.07 1.07- 89 Automobile Repairand g Places Services- 0.96 0.24 8' Amusements 0.35 0.22 -13

. Health ' Education, Social Services 4.64 4.30 131

. Federal Government Enterprises 0.49 0.49 10 Electrical Utilities 27.27 2.07 57 TOTAL $91.69 $30.76 903 Change in State Tax Revenue ($million)

!- State income Tax 10.59 State Retail Sales and Use Tax 0.56 TOTAL $1.15 63 i=

TABLE 18 AFFECT ON IN0!Y10 VAL SECTORS OF 1%

INCREASE IN THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY KPL SERVICE AREA Change in Change in Wages &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) ($million) Employment

Livestock. ($0.13)

Crops (50.10) -3 Forestry, Coseercial Fisheries -0.08 -0.08 -3 Agricultural Services 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining -0.01 0.00 0 Oil and Gas Extraction -0.26 -0.02 Stone, Clay. Gravel -0.01 0

Construction 0.00 0 0.24 -0.08 -2 Food Processing -0.46 Tobacco Processing- -0.14 2 0.00 0.00 0 Fabrics and Apparel -

-0.05

.. Lumber and Wood 0.03 -1

-0.01 -0.01 0 Furniture and Fixtures 0.01 -0.01 0 Paper Products 0.06 -0.03 -1 Printing and Publishing -0.!! -0.09 -1 Chemicals: -0.06 Plastic Material and Synthetics -0.03 -1 0.00 0.00 0 Orugs and Preparations -0.04 Paints -0.01 0 0.00 0.00 0 Petroleum refining -0.17 -0.01 0 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.10 -0.07 -1 Leather and Leather Products -0.01 -0.01 0 Glass, Stone, Clay Products -0.03 tron Steel. Metal -0.02 0

-0.05 -0.03 -1 MetalProducts. Ordnance.StructuralMetal -0.06 -0.03 -1 Engines and Machinery- -0.08 -0.05 Computers and Computing Equipment -1 0.00 0.00 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances -0.05 0.02

-Electric Components and Parts 0

-0.01 -0.01 0 Motor vehicles and Equipment -0.13 -0.03

. Aircraft and Parts 0 0.00 0.00 0

. Other Transportation Equipment -0.02 0.01 0 Scientific and Photographic Equipment -0.01 0.00 0 ::

Misc. Manufacturing -0.02 -0.01 0 Transportation and Warehousing 0.15 -0.07 Consunications Exc --2 Business 5 services,ept Radio and TV -0.09 0.07 -l Radio and TV -0.26 -0.17 -4 Utilities Excluding Electricity -1.05 - 01 09 -2 Wholesale and Retail trade -0.71 0.55 -19 Finance and Insurance -0.26 -0.21 -4 '

Real Estate and Rental -0.51 -0.05 Hotels,. Personal Services -2

-0.09 -0.07 -4 Eating and Drinking Places - -0.20: -0.11 Automobile Repair and Services -9 Amusements

' -0.09 -0.02 -1

-0.03 -0.02 Health Education, Social Services -0.46 -0.42 1

FederalGovernmentEnterprises -13

-0.05 0.05 -1 Electrical Utilities- -2.43 -0.18 -5 TOTAL

($8.69) ($3.01) 88 -

Change in State Tax Revenue ($million)

State income Tax ($0.06)

State Retail Sales and Use Tax -0.05 TOTAL

($0.11) 64

TABLE 19 AFFECT ON INDIV1004L'$ECTORS Or 5%

INCREASE IN THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY KPL SERVICE AREA Change in Chr.nge in Weges &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) ($siilion) Employment Livestock

' Crops . ($0.63) ($0.48) -16 0.42 -0.39 -15 Forestry, Commercial Fisheries 0.00

. Agricultural Services . 0.00 0

-0.02 -0.02 -1 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining- 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining 0.03 -0.01 0 Oil and Gas Extraction -1.26 -0.09 -2 Stone, Clay. Gravel -0.03 Construction -0.02 1 Food Processing

-1.20 -0.39 -10

-2.30 0.71- 11 Tobacco Processing -0.02 Fabrics and Apparel -0.01 0

-0.24 0.13 -4 Lumber and Wood -0.06 -0.03 -1 Furniture and Fixtures -0.05 0.03 -1 Paper Products -

-0.32 -0.16 -3 Printing and Publishing -0.55 -0.46 -7 Cheetcals -0.40 Plastic Material and Synthetics -0.16 -3 Drugs and Preparations 0.00 0.00 0 Paints -0.18 -0.06 -1 0.00 0.00 0 Petroleum refining -0.85 -0.04 Rubber and Plastic Products -1

-0.48 -0.34 -4

' Leather and Leather Products -0.05 -0. 03 ..

' Glass, Stone. Clay Products -0.16

-l Iron Steel Metal -0.08 -2

~ Metal Produc,ts. Ordnance, Structural Metal -0.27 -0.12 -3 Engines and Machinery

-0.27 -0.15 -3

-0.39 -0.24 -5 Computers and Ceeputing Equipment 0.00- 0.00 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0 Electric Components and Parts -0.23 -0.08 -2

-0.06 -0.04 1 Motor Vehicles and Equipment -0.66 0.17

-Aircraft and Parts: -2

-0.01 0.00 0

.0ther Transportation Equipment -0.08 -0.06

-Scientific and Photographic Equipment -1

-0.03 -0.02 0 Misc. Manufacturing -0.08 -0.05 Transportation and Warehousing -1 Cosuunications Except Radio and TV -0.76 -0.36 -9

-0.47 -0.34- -4 Business $servlees Radio and TV -1.28 -0.83 20 Utilities Excludi Electricity -5.18 -0.46-Wholesale and Reta 1 trade -12

-3.55 2.74 -93 Finance and Insurance -1.28 -1.05 Real Estate and Rental -21 Hotels, Personal Services -2.55 -0.25 -0.45 -0.35 -18 Eating and Drinking Places' -1.01

- Automobile Repair and Services -0.53 44 Amusements-

-0.46 0.12 -4 Health -0.17 -0.11 -6 Education, Social Services -2.27.

FederalGovernmentEnterprises -2.11 -64

-0.23 -0.24 Electrical Utilities -11.70 -0.89 -24 5

TOTAL

($42.71) (514.93) -436 Change in State Tax Revenue (Smillion)

State Income Tax. (50.28)

State Retail Sales and Use Tax 0.27 TOTAL

($0.56) 65

TABLE to AFFECT ON INDIV!OUAL SECTORS OF 10%

INCREASE IN THE PRICE Or ELECTRICITY KPL 5(RVICE AREA-Change in Change in. Wages &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) (3elllion) Employment Liveltock ($1.26) ($0.97) 32 Crops

-0.84 -0.78 -30 Forestry, Coseercial Fisheries -0.01- 0.00 0 Agricultural Services -0.05 -0.04 1 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining 0.07 -0.02 0 Oil and Gas Extraction- 2.48 -0.17 -4 Stone. Clay, Gravel 0.07 -0.05 -1 Construction- -2.33 -0.77 20 Food Processing - -4.59 -1.41 -22 Tobacco Processing -0.04 -0.01 0 Fabrics and Apparel -0.49 -0.26 8 Lumber and Wood 0.12 -0.05 2 Furniture and Fixtures- -0.11 -0.07 -1 Paper Products -0.63 -0.31 -6 Printino and Publishing -1.09 -0.9) -13

Cheelcals -0.79 -0.32 Plastic Material and Synthetics -6 0.00 0.00 0 Drugs and Preparations 0.35- -0.11 2 Paints 0.01 0.00 0 Petroleum refining- 1.65 -0.07 -2 Aubber and Plastic Products * -0.95 -0.68 -9 Leather and Leather Products -0.10 0.06 -2 Stone Clay Products -0.32 0.16

-Glass, Irvn Steel., Metal -0.53 3

Metai Products. Ordnance, Structural Metal .-0.25 -6

-0.54 0.29 -6 Engines and Machinery -0.75 -0.47 10 Computers and Computing Equipment -0.01 -0.01 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances -0.46 -0.16 4 Electric Components and Parts %ll -0.09 Motor. Vehicles and E -2 1,32 0.33 -5 Aire' aft and Parts' quipment

-0.02 -0.01 0 10ther Transportation Egulpeent- -0.15 -0.12 2

. Scientific and Photegraphic Equipment -0.05 -0.03 -1 Misc. Manufacturing -0.16 -0.09 -2

1 Transportation and Warehousing -1.49 -0.71 -18 Communications Exc .-0.93 -0.67 -8 Business $servlces.ept Radio Radio and and TV TV -2.52 -1.64 40 Utilities Excludino Electricity -10.25 -0.91 -24

Wholesale and Retall trade -7.03 -5.44 -186

< Finance and Insurance -2.54 -2.08 -42 Real Estate and Rental -5.04 -0.51 -17 Hotels.. Personal- Services -0.90 --0.69 -35 Eating'and Drinking Places -2.00 -1.05 -87 Automoblie Repair and Services -0.92 -0.23 -7 Amusements -0.35

--Health- Education, Social Services -0.22 -13

-4.51 -4.21 -128 l : Federal Government. Enterprise? -0.45 -0.47 -9

Electrical Utilities 22.35 -1.70 -46 TOTAL ($83.70) t ($29 59) -862 l

! Change in State Tax Revenue ($million) l State income Tax- (10.56) i 5 tate Retail Sales and use Tax 0.54 TOTAL (51.10) 66

. .- . .. . .~ . .. - -- - . _ - - . . . _ - .

TABLE 21 AFFECT ON IN0lV10 VAL $ECTOR$ OF in DECREASE IN-THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY KG&E $ERVICE AREA Change in Change in Waoes &

Output Salaries (nange in Sector (leillion) (5mi111on) Employment Livestock $0.05- 30.02 1 Crops 0.03 0.01- 1 Forestry,' Commercial Fisheries 0.00- 0.00 0 Agricultural Services 0.00 0.00' 0 Mets) and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining C.10 0.02 1 011 and 6as Extraction 0.46 0.06 1 Stone. Clay. Gravel 0.00 0.00 0 Construction- 0.19 0.07 2 Food Processing 0.17- 0.04 1 Tobacco Processing 0.00- 0.00 0 Fabrics and Apparel 0.02 0.01 0 Lumber and Wood 0,01- 0.00 0 Furniture and Fixtures =0.01 0.00- 0 Paper Products- 0.02 0.01 0 PrintingandPublishing 0.06 0.03 1 Cheette.s. 0.06 -0.03 0

' Plastic Material and Synthettes 0.00 0.00 0 Orugs and Preparations 0.01 0.00 0-Paints 0.00 0.00 0 Petroleum refining- .

0.55 0.03 1 Rubber and Plastic Products' O.04 0.02- 0 Leather and Leather Products 0.00 0.00 0 Glass Stone Clay Products 0.02 0.01 0

' Iron , Steel. , Metal - 0.01 0.01-0 MetalProducts, Ordnance,StructuralMetal- 0.02 0.01 0

. Engines 'and Machinery 0 09 0.07 1 Computers and Computing Equipment 0.00 0.00 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances' -0.03 0.01- 0-

-Electric Component 5'and Parts 0.00 0.00. O Motor Vehicles and Equipment 0.04 0.01 : 0

. Aircraft and Parts 0.25 0.61 >

2 Other.. Transportation Equipoc t 0 00 0.00 0-Scientific and Photographic (quipment ~0.01 0.01 0 L 0. 01 -- 0.01 0 Misc. Manufacturingherehousing Transportation and - 0.18 = -0.10 2-Communications Exc 0.05 '0.03 '0 businessSservices.eptRadioandTV Radio and TV 0.16 0.11" 2 Utilities Excluding Electricity 0.55 10.05 1 Wholesale and Retall' trade 0.49 0.36 11-Finance and Insurance 0.14 - 0.11 2 Real Estate and 14 ental -0.40- 0.04 .1 Hotels, Personal Services 0.06 0.05 .2 Eating and Drinking Places .

-0.13 0.07- 5 Automobile Repair and Services ~ 0.07 =0.02. l-

>=

Amusements 0.02 0.01 1 Health Education, Social Services 0.32 0.28 8 Federal-GovernmentEnterprises 0.00 0.01 0

-Electrical ~ Utilities 3.03 .'0.36 10 TOTAL- 37.84 -- $2.74- 61.

Change in State Tax Revenue-'(Smillion)

State Income Tas 10.05 State Retail Sales and Use Tax 0.05 TOTAL 30.10 67

1 l

i TABLE 22

\

AFFECT ON INDIVIDUAL SECTORS OF 5%

DECREASE IN THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY KG&E SERVICE AREA Change in Change in Wages &

Output' Salaries Change in Sector ($million)

($million) Employment Livestock- $0.24 Crops 10.12 7 Forestry, Coseercial Fisheries 0.15 0.07 4

- Agricultural Services 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 0.01- 0 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining- 0.50 Oli and Gas Extraction 0.12 3 Stone. Clsy, Gravel 2.29 0.28 4 Construction 0.01 0.01 0 0.98 0.36 8 Food Processing 0.87 Tobacco Processing ' 0.19 4 Fabrics and Apparel 0.01 0.00 0 O.12 0.07 2 Lumber and Wood 0.03 0.01 0 Furniture and Fixtures 0.03 0.02-Paper Products 0 0.10 0.04 Printino and Publishing 0.29 0.17 1

Chemicals 3 0.32 0.13 2

' Plastic Material and Synthetics 0.00 0.00 Drugs and Preparations- 0.04 0

Paints- 0.02 0 0.02 0.01 0 Petroleum refining 2.80 0.17 3 Rubber and Plastic Products 0.18 0.10 2 Leather and Leather Products 0.01 0.01 Glass, Stone, Clay Products 0 fron Steel, Metal 0.10 0.05 1 0.04 0.04 MetalProducts.-Ordnance,StructuralMetal 0.!!

1 Engines and Machinery 0.08 1 0.44 0.35 6

-Computers and Computing Equipment 0.02 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0.01 0 Electric Components and Parts 0.17 0.07 1 Notor Vehicles and Equipment 0.02' O.02 0-0.18 0.06 Aircraf t- and Parts 1.23 3.04 1

Other Transportation EquiFent 0.02 0.01-12 Scientific and Photographic Equipment- 0 0.04 0.03 0 Misc. Manufacturing 0.05 Transportation and Warehousing 0.03 1 0.92 0.51 10 Communications Exc 0.25'

-Business 3servlees,eptRadioandTV O.16 2 Radio and TV 0.80 0.57 Utilities Excludino Electricity 2.78 0.23 12 7

Wholesale and Retall trade 2.50 1.80 Finance and Insurance 56 0.72 0.57 11 Real Estate and Pental: 2.05 0.20 Hotels, Personal Services 0.29 5

Eating and Orinking Places 0.23 11 Automobile Repair and Services '0.66 ~0.34 24

' Amusements 0.36 0.10 3 Health Education, Social Services 0.12 0.07 4 FederalGovernment. Enterprises 1.59 1.39 40 0.01 0.07 Electrical-Utilities 15.78 1.89 0

53-TOTAL $40.28 113.84 309 Change in State Tax Revenue ($million) !

State Income Tax $0.26 State Retail Sales and Use Tax 0.25 TOTAL

$0.52 68 l

TABLE 23 AFFECT ON INDIVIOUAL SECTOR 5 OF 10%

DECREASE IN THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY KG&E SERVICE AREA Change in Change in Waoes &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($siilien) ($elllion) Employment Livestock $0.50 $0.25 13 Crops 0.30 0.14 9 Forestry, Consercial Fisheries 0.00 0.00 0 Agricultural Services 0.03 0.02 1 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining 1.06 0.25 7 011 and 6as Extraction 4.74 0.57 9 Stone. Clay. Gravel 0.03 0.02 1 Construction 2.04 0.73 17 Food Processing 1.77 0.39 8 Tobacco Processing 0.02 0.01 0 Fabrics and Apparel. 0.23 0.13 4 Lumber and Wood 0.06 0.02 1 Furniture and Fixtures 0.07 0.04 1 Paper Products 0.20 0.08 2 Printing and Publishing 0.60 0.35 7 Chemicals 0.66 0.27 4 Plastic Material and Synthetics 0.00 0.00 0 brugs and Preparations 0.08 0.03 0 Paints 0.05 0.02 0 Petroleue refining 5.83 0.35 6 Rubber and Plastic Products 0.37 0.20 4 Leather and Leather Products 0.02 0.02 0 Clay Products 0.21 0.11 2 Glass. Stone, Metal Iron Steel, 0.07 0.07 2 MetalProducts,Ordnence,StructuralMetal 0.23 0.15 3 Engines and Machinery 0.92 0.72 12 Computers and Computing Equipment 0.04 0.02 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0.36 0.14 3 Electric Components and Parts 0.03 0.04 0 Motor Vehicles and Equipment 0.36 0.11 1 Aircraft and Parts 2.45- 6.09 24 Other Transportation Equipment 0.04 0.03 i Scientific and Photographic Equipment 0.07 0.05 1

' Misc. Manufacturing 0.11 0.06 1 Trarsportation and Warehousing 1.90 1.04 21 Communications Exc 0.52 0.32 5 Business Sservlees,ept RadioRadio and TV and TV 1.65 1.16 25 Utilities Excluding Electricity 5.63 0.47 14 Wholesale and Retail trade ' 5.10 3.65 114 Finance and Insurance l.47 1.15 22 Real Estate and Rental 4.19 0.40 11 Hotels, Personal Services 0.58 0.47 22 Eating and Drinking Places 1.34 0.69 49

- Automobile Repair and Services 0.73 0.21- 5 Amusements' . -

0.23 0.15 7 Health Education, Social Services 3.23 2.81 81 FederalGovernmentEnterprises 0.03 0.13 1 Electrical Utilities 33.32 3.98 112 TOTAL $83.47 $28,12 534 Change in State Tax Revenue (Seillion) l 5 tate incese Tax $0.54 State Retail Sales and Use Tax 0.51 TOTAL $1.05 i

69 l

TABLE 24 AFFECT ON INDIVIOUal SECTORS Or 14 INCREASE IN THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY KG&E SERYlCE AREA Change in Change in Weges &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) ($sillion) Employment

. Livestock (30.05)

Crops ($0.02) -1

-0.03 -0.01 -1 Forestry, Cosmercial Fisheries 0.00 0.00 Agricultural Services 0 0.00 0.00 0 Metal and Nonferrous Nineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining 0.09 -0.02 -1 011 and Gas Extraction -0.44 -0.05 -l Stone. Clay, Gravel 0.00 Construction 0.00 0

-0.19 -0.07' 2 Food Processing' -0.17 0.04 Tobacco Processing -1 0.00 0.00 0 Fabrics and Apparel -0.02 u

Lusber and Wood-

-0.01 0

-0.01 0.00 0 Furniture and Fixtures '

-0.01 0.00 0 Paper Products

-0.02 -0.01 0 Printing and Publishing -0.06 -0.03 -1 Chemicals -0.06- -0.03 0 Plastic Material and Synthetics 0.00 0.00 0 Drugs and Preparations -0.01 0.00 Paints 0 0.00 0.00 0 Petroleum refining -0.54 -0.03 -1 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.04 -0.02 0 Leather and Leather Products- 0.00 0.00 0 Stone -0.02 Glass, 1ron- Steel..- Clay Products Metal -0.01 0

-0.01 0.01 0 MetalProducts. Ordnance,StructuralMetal -0.02 0.01 Engines and Machinery 0 0.08 -0.07 -1 Computers and Computing Eauipment 0.00. 0.00 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0 Electric Components and Parts -0.03 -0.01 0 0.00 0.00 0

. Motor Vehicles and Equipment -0.04 -0.01 0

. Aircraft and Parts 0.24 0.61 -2

- Other Transportatton Equipment 0.00 0.00 0 Scientific and Photographic Equipment -0.01 -0.01- 0 Misc. Manufacturing -0.01 -0.01 0 Transportation and Warehousing -0.18 -0.10 -2 Coseunications Except Radio and TV -0.05 -0.03 0 Business $ services Radio and TV .-0.16 -0.11 -2 Utilities Excludi Electricity -0.55 -0.05 -l

- Wholesale and Reta 1 trade -0.49- .-0.36 -11 Finance and Insurance . -0.14 -0.11 -2

' Real Estate and Rental .-0.40 -0.04 -1

' Hotels, Personal Services -0.06

- Eating and Drinking Places -0.05 -2

-0.13 -0.07 -5 Automobile Repair and Services ~-0.07 Amusements -0.02 -1 0.02 -0.01 -1 Health Education, Social Services -0.31 FederalGovernmentEnterprises -0.28 -B 0.00 -0.01 0 Electrical Utilities 2.97 -0.35 -10 TOTAL ($7.751 l

($2.72) -60 l

Change in State Tax Revenue ($million) l State Income Tax (50.05)

State Retail $ ales and Use Tax -0.05 TOTAL'

($0.10) 70 t

l TABLE 35 AFFECT ON INDIVIOUAL SECTORS OF 5%

INCREASE IN THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY KG&E SERVICE AREA Change in Change in Wages &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) ($million) Employment Livestock ($0.24) (50.12)

Crops -6

-0.14 -0.07 -4 Forestry, Cosmercial Fisheries 0.00 0.00 Agricultural Services 0

-0.02 -0.01 0 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining -0.45 -0.11 011 and Gas Extraction -3

-2.16 -0.27 -4 Stone, Clay, Gravel -0.01 -0.01 0 Construction -0.91 -0.34 -8 Food Processing 0.85 *0.19 -4 Tobacco Processing 0.01 0.00 0 Faerics and Apparel -0.11 0.07 Lumber and Wood -2

-0.03 -0.01 0 Furniture and Fixtures 0.03 -0.02 0 Paper Products *0.10 -0.04 -1 Printing and Publishing. -0.28 0.17 -3 Chemicals -0.32 -0.13 Plastic Material and Synthstics -2 0.00 -0.00 0 Drugs and Preparations -0.04 -0.02 0 Paints -0.02 -0.01 0 Petroleum refining 2,62 -0.17 -3 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.18 -0.10 -2 Leather and Leather Products -0.01 -0.01 0 Glass, Stone, Clay Products -0.10 -0.05 fron Steel, Metal -1

-0.03 -0.04 -1 MetalProducts. Ordnance,StructuralMetal -0.11 -0.07 -1

- Engines and Machinery -0.41 0.34 Computers and Computing Equipoent

-6

-0.02 -0.01 0-Electrical Equipment and Appliances -0.17 -0.07 -1 Electric Components and Parts -0.02 -0.02 0 Motor Vehicles and Equipment -0.18 -0.06 -1 Aircraf t and Parts -1.22 -3,03 -12 Other Transportation Equipment 0.02 -0.01 0 Scientific and Photographic Equipment -0.03 -0.03 0 Misc. Manufacturing -0.05 -0.03 -1 Transportation and Warehousing -0.87 -0.50 -10 Comunications Exc -0.?4 -G.15 -2 Business $ services,eptRadioandTV Radio and TV -0.77 -0.56 -12 Utilities Excluding Electricity -2.71 -0.23 -7 Wholesale and Retail trade -2.42 -1.77 -54 Finance and Insurance - -0.69 -0.55 -10 Real Estate and Rental -1.98 -0.19 -5 Hotels, Personal Services -0.28 -

Eating and Drinking Places- -0.23 -10

-0.64 0.34 -24 Automobile Repair and Services -0.35 -0.10 3 Amusements -0.11 -0.07 -3 Health Education. Social Services -1.55 -1.37 -39 FederalGovernmentEnterprises -0.01 -0.07 0 Electrical Utilities -14.28 -1.71 -48 TOTAL ($37.79) ($13.45) -297 Change in State Tax Revenue ($million)

State Income Tax (50.26)

State Retail Sales and use Tax 0.25 TOTAL (50.50) 71

VABLs 26' AFFECT Ok IN0lV10 VAL 5(CTOR$ OF 10%

INCREASE IN THE PRICE Or (LECTRICITY KG&E SERVICE AREA Change in '

thange in Wages &

Output Salaries Change in Sector ($million) ($mtition) Employment Livestock ($0.47)

-Crops ($0.24) -13

-0.29 -0.14 -9 Forestry, Commercial Fisheries 0.00 0.00 Agricultural Services - 0

-0.03 -0.02 1 Metal and Nonferrous Mineral Mining 0.00 0.00 0 Coal Mining -0.87 -0.20 011 and Gas Extraction -6

-4.21 0.54 -6 Stone. Clay, Gravel -0.03 -0.02 0 Construction -1.77 -0.67 15 Food Processing- 1.67 -0.36 Tobacco Processing -B

-0.02 0.01 0 Fabrics and Apparel- 0.22 -4 0.13 Lumber and Wood 0,05 -0.02 -1 Furniture and Fixtures -0.07 -0.04 -1 Paper Products. -0.19 0.08 *2 Printing and Publishing -0.55 0.33 -7 Chemicals-

-0.63 -0.26 -4 Plastic Material and Synthetics 0.00 0.00 0 Drugs and Preparations -0.08

?aints .-0.03 0

-0.05 -0.02 0 Petroleum refining -5.08 -0.33 -5 Rubber and Plastic Products -0.34 -0.19 -4 Leather and Leather Products -0.02 -0.02 0 Stone -0.19 -0.10 Glass,Steelc,MetalClay fron Products 2

-0.07 -0.07 -1 MetaI Products, Ordnance, Structural Metal -0.21 - - 0.'S 3 Engines and Machinery -0.80 .o?

Computers and Computing Equipment -11

-0.03 -0.02 0 Electrical Equipment and Appliances 0.32 0.14 --3 Electric Components and Parts -0.03 Motor v ehicles and Equipment 0.04 -0

-0.35 -0,11 -1 Aircraft and Parts *2.45 -6.04 -24=

Other Transportation Equipment -0.03 -0.03 1 Scientific and Photographic Equipment -0.07 -0.05 -1 Hisc. Manufacturing -0.10- -0.06 -1 Transportation and Warehousing -1.70 -0.99 -19 Communications Exc -0.48- -0.30 4 Business $ services,ept Radio Radio and TV and TV -1.50 -1.11 -23 Utilities Excluding Electricity -5.35 -0.45 -14 Wholesale and Retail trade -4.'7 -3.50 -107 Finance and Insurance- -1,35- -1.10 -20 Real Estate and Rental -!.89 -0.3B 10 Hotels, Personal Services 0.55 Eating and Orinking Places . -0.45 -21

-1,26 -0.67 ' Automobile Repair and Services -0.68

' Amusements-

-0.20 -5 0.22 --0.14 -7 Health Education, Social Serv',ces -3,07 -2.72 -77 Federai Government Enterprises: -0,03 --0.13 -1 Electrical Utilities -27.25 -3.26 -91 TOTAL ($73.42) ($26.57) -583 Change in State Tax Revenue (Smillion)

State Income Tax ($0.51)

State Retail Sales and use Tax -0.48 TOTAL (10.99) 72

ML20029A739

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