LR-N12-0366, Kld TR-499, Revision 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Appendix H Through Appendix J

Kld TR-499, Revision 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Appendix H Through Appendix J

ML13052A680
Person / Time
Site:	Salem, Hope Creek
Issue date:	11/28/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Public Service Enterprise Group
References
LR-N12-0366 KLD TR-499, Rev. 0
Download: ML13052A680 (48)

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APPENDIX H Evacuation Regions H EVACUATION REGIONS This appendix presents the evacuation percentages for each Evacuation Region (Table H-i) and maps of all Evacuation Regions. The percentages presented in Table H-1 are based on the methodology discussed in assumption 5 of Section 2.2 and shown in Figure 2-1.Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table H-1. Percent of ERPA Population Evacuating for Each Region-Basic Regions Region Description R01 2-Mile Ring 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R02 5-Mile Ring 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R03 Full EPZ Evacuate S-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Region Wind Direction ERPA Rein From:2 3 4 6 7 A B C R04 N, NNE, NE 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%ROS ENE, E, ESE 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R06 SE20 20 20 20 20 202%R0720% 20% 20%R08 2 20% 20% 20%R09 SSW, SW20 2%2%R10 WSW202%2%1111 W, WNW 2%2% 0 R12 NW20 20 2%R13 NNW20 20 2%2%Staged Evacuation

-S-Mile Radius Evacuates, then Evacuate Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Region Wind Direction ERPA From: 1 2 3 4 S 6 7 8 R14 None R15 N, NNE, NE R16 ENE, E, ESE 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%R17 SE20 20 20 20 20 2%R18 SSE R19 SShler-n-lc R20 SSW, SW20 2%R21 WSW202%R22 W, WNW20 2%2%R23 NW20 20 20 2%R24 NNW20 20 20 2%2%Delaware Only R25 ERPA A 2% 2%2%2%2%2%2%_0 0 0 R26 ERPA B 2% 2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2!

0 0 R27 ERPA C 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 i0 2%2%R28 Delaware 2% 2%2%2%2%2%2%2%::

Key Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-1. Region RO0 H-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate ID H-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-2. Region R02 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-3. Region R03 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-4. Region R04 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 FigUre H-5. Region R05 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 0 Figure H-6. Region R06 H-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-7. Region R07 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-8. Region ROB Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-9. Region R09 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-10. Region RIO Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-11. Region R11 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-12. Region R12 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-13. Region R13 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 40 H-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 is Figuire H-14. Region R14 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-15. Region R15 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-16. Region R16 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-17. Region R17 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-18. Region RIS Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-19. Region R19 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-20. Region R20 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-21. Region R21 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 40 H-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-22. Region R22 H-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-23. Region R23 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-24. Region R24 H-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-25. Region R25 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure H-26. Region R26 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-27. Region R27 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 H-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 is Figure H-28. Region R28 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate H-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX J Representative Inputs to and Outputs from the DYNEV II System J. REPRESENTATIVE INPUTS TO AND OUTPUTS FROM THE DYNEV II SYSTEM This appendix presents data input to and output from the DYNEV II System. Table J-1 provides the volume and queues for the ten highest volume signalized intersections in the study area.Refer to Table K-2 and the figures in Appendix K for a map showing the geographic location of each intersection.

Table J-2 provides source (vehicle loading) and destination information for several roadway segments (links) in the analysis network. Refer to Table K-1 and the figures in Appendix K for a map showing the geographic location of each link.Table J-3 provides network-wide statistics (average travel time, average speed and number of vehicles) for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) for each scenario.

As expected, Scenarios 8 and 11, which are snow scenarios, exhibit the slowest average speed and longest average travel times.Table J-4 provides statistics (average speed and travel time) for the major evacuation routes -State Route 49 in New Jersey, and State Route I and US Route 13 in Delaware -for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1 conditions.

Table J-5 provides the number of vehicles discharged and the cumulative percent of total vehicles discharged for each link exiting the analysis network, for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario I conditions.

Refer to Table K-1 and the figures in Appendix K for a map showing the geographic location of each link.Figure J-1 through Figure J-14 plot the trip generation time versus the ETE for each of the 14 Scenarios considered.

The distance between the trip generation and ETE curves is the travel time. Plots of trip generation versus ETE are indicative of the level of traffic congestion during evacuation.

For low population density sites, the curves are close together, indicating short travel times and minimal traffic congestion.

For higher population density sites, the curves are farther apart indicating longer travel times and the presence of traffic congestion.

As seen in Figure J-1 through Figure J-14, the curves are spatially separated as a result of the traffic congestion in the EPZ, which was discussed in detail in Section 7.3.Salem-Hope Creek NGS J-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table J-1. Characteristics of the Ten Highest Volume Signalized Intersections lUiL U U 125 US-40 and SR 896 TCP 126 6,180 0 618 1,203 0 1153 431 0 TOTAL 7,814 163 5,042 0 165 1,435 0 164 US-13 and SR 273 Actuated 945 110 0 944 900 0 TOTAL 7,487 81 4,845 0 156 1,478 0 77 US-13 and Hamburg Actuated 965 621 0 Road 82 94 0 TOTAL 7,038 159 3,980 0 631 995 0 160 US-13 and US-40 Actuated 161 1,464 0 TOTAL 6,439 158 4,462 0 159 US-13 and Llangollen Actuated 160 1,465 0 Boulevard 950 488 0 TOTAL 6,415 -117 0 0 121 3,695 0 SR 896 and Old123,90 120 Bali ore Actuated 921 0 0 Baltimore Pike 922 2,708 0 TOTAL 6,403 77 1,479 0 865 1,444 204 81 US-13 and SR 71 Actuated 952 3,392 49 TOTAL 6,315 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Appoac Toa Max Turn0 IIntreto (U -Voum Queue 127 0 0 128 SR 896 and Porter Rd Actuated 129 6,053 0 917 127 0 1028 0 0 TOTAL 6,180 738 4,299 67 24 0 0 23 US-13 and Duck 23 Rd Actuated 911 1,864 0 Creek Rd 991 14 0 TOTAL 6,177 -30 3,856 0 US-13 and Black 26 1,894 0 Diamond Rd 1117 172 0 TOTAL 5,922 -Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table J-2. Sample Simulation Model Input 690 73 E 8275 1,348 775 237 NE 8272 1,125 8102 3,810 935 5 W 8014 4,500 8111 4,500 1221 260 SW 8010 3,810 8014 4,500 8224 9,000 1726 137 W 8222 6,750 8111 4,500 629 6 NE 8272 1,125 842 6 NE 8272 1,125 1171 61 S 8705 1,572 8755 1,698 8818 5,715 1454 77 N 8249 4,500 8246 4,500 1628 18 W 8102 3,810 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table J-3. Selected Model Outputs for the Evacuation of the Entire EPZ (Region R03)Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Network-Wide Average Travel Time (Min/Veh-Mi) 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.0 Network-Wide Average 34.3 30.6 36.6 32.8 36.5 34.1 30.0 29.0 37.7 32.6 33.3 36.5 30.6 30.0 Speed (mph)Total Vehicles Exitin Network 56,746 57,137 51,179 51,545 43,551 57,045 57,410 57,614 49,799 50,166 50,235 43,551 58,163 56,751 Exiting Network Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table J-4. Average Speed (mph) and Travel Time (min) for Major Evacuation Routes (Region R03, Scenario 1)Elapsed Tie(hus 2 3 4--S *~S a-Travel~SR 49 SB (NJ) 11.5 36.5 19.0 51.2 13.5 151.2 113.5 152.3 113.2 SR 49 NB (NJ) 11.5 18.7 37.0 46.6 14.9 46.9 14.8 48.0 14.4 SR 1 SB (DE) 19.7 64.5 18.3 65.0 18.2 64.9 18.2 64.9 18.2 SR 1 NB (DE) 19.7 65.0 18.2 65.0 18.2 65.0 18.2 65.0 18.2 US-13 SB (DE) 18.6 49.2 22.6 56.1 19.8 57.7 19.3 57.9 19.2 US-13 SB (DE) 18.5 46.8 23.7 53.5 20.8 53.3 20.9 53.5 20.8 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table J-5. Simulation Model Outputs at Network Exit Links for Region R03, Scenario 1~Cumulative Vehicles Discharged by the Indicated Time Cumulative Percent of Vehicles Discharged by the Indicated Time 243 1,299 1,627 1,713 1,730 17.°.L.. I ) 5.. 3. 1 1.1 24 3,380 7,221 7,979 8,184 8,211 28.8 19.5 16.0 14.8 14.5 222 2,118 4,428 5,601 6,100 6,186 18.0 11.9 11.2 11.0 10.9 0 400 470 471 471 241 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 244 1,009 3,830 5,842 6,704 6,835 8.6 10.3 11.7 12.1 12.1 0 0 0 0 0 253 253 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 630 2,747 3,851 4,363 4,446 388 5.4 7.4 7.7 7.9 7.8 759 2,301 3,294 3,836 3,935 6.5 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.9 107 610 866 952 966 406 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 6 66 100 109 110 424 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 67 577 837 926 941 481 0.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 66 553 837 932 942 488 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 22 275 411 448 452 509 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 758 1,764 2,764 3,764 4,394 624 6.5 4.8 5.5 6.8 7.8 1 16 26 29 30 635 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 28 145 213 236 239 638 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 5 8 11 12 651 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 EP 1 1 Cumlaiv VeilsLicageiythnniatdTm 4 108 166 179 181 738 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0 12 20 22 22 759 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31 136 193 210 214 770 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 1 1 1 1 855 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 82 177 214 224 224 881 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 33 380 531 557 561 996 0.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 39 433 656 714 724 1180 0.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 3 27 41 45 46 1469 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 1 1 1 1 1530 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 28 44 50 50-1539 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 232 517 816 1,041 1,059 1711 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.9 3 28 43 47 47 1754 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 9 46 65 71 72 1819 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 71 1,104 1,230 1,231 1,231 1823 0.6 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.2 1 1 1 1 1 1844 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 845 2,028 2,883 3,056 3,073 1851 7.2 5.5 5.8 5.5 5.4 65 1,062 1,531 1,654 1,680 1858 0.6 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.0 27 34 77 109 122 1870______0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Cumultive Ehilapes Discared by(heo Idiatdsim Cumlaiv Pecn of Veice Dicare byte5dctdTm 943 3,963 5,570 6,094 6,180 1890 943 6,094 5,570+ + I 8.0 10.7 11.2 11.0 10.9 92 525 763 867 889 1891t 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 71 263 399 443 448 1897 1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-Trip Generation IETE VI 4-0 0 U'100%80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time (min)210 240 270 300 330 Figure J-1. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 1)ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-Trip Generation 1ETE IA EU Z-100%80%60%40%20%0%___...NNNNNNMý 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time (min)210 240 270 300 330 Figure J-2. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-Trip Generation

-ETE Iq U Z M"8 4.0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time (min)Figure J-3. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 3)ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-Trip Generation mETE 100%In a, a, El 4-0 I-.4-0 4-C Ci U I..a, a.80%60%40%20%0%77 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time (min)210 240 270 300 330 Figure J-4. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-Trip Generation -mETE IA (U'U Z-CL 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time (min)210 240 270 300 330 Figure J-5. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 5)ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-Trip Generation mETE 100%In a'ap'U 0 I-S.-0 4.C a'U 1.a'0.80%60%40%20%0%ZOý.0ý , ý ý , -, , , ..0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed lime (min)210 240 270 300 330 Figure J-6. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 6)Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-Trip Generation mETE a.'U 4-.0 I-.4-0 C a'U a'a-100%80%60%40%'.00ý201%0% 0 0 30 60 90 210 240 270 300 120 150 180 Elapsed Time (min)330 Figure J-7. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-Trip Generation

-ETE 100%In a'£a'~4 U 4-0 I-*4~0 4-C a'U a'a.80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 Elapsed Time (min)300 330 360 390 420 Figure J-8. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-Trip Generation -ETE 4-0 0 4-.C 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time (min)Figure J-9. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 9)ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-Trip Generation -ETE IA a'U a'(U 4-0 I-S.-0 C a'U I-a'0.100%80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time (min)210 240 270 300 330 Figure J-10. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)i-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-Trip Generation

-ETE In)", a, 4-0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 Elapsed Time (min)Figure J-11. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-Trip Generation

-ETE In a, a, tu 4-.0 I-0 4-C a, U 1~a, a.100%80%60%40%20%B mm//0% -I I I I I I I I ý I 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time (min)Figure J-12. ETE and Trip Generation:

Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 12)Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-Trip Generation 1ETE U, z a,'U 0 I-0 4-C a, U a, a.100%80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time (min)Figure J-13. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather, Special Event (Scenario 13)ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)-Trip Generation

-ETE 100%'A a,-o a,'U 4-0'4.-0 4-C a, U a, 0.80%60%40%20% L 0%0 IIIII I L _30 60 90 120 150 180 Elapsed Time (min)210 240 270 300 330 Figure J-14. ETE and Trip Generation:

Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate J-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0