ML19311C722

Public Watchdogs - NRC 2.206 Petition Exhibits 1-38 - Part 22

ML19311C722
Person / Time
Site:	San Onofre
Issue date:	09/23/2014
From:	Public Watchdogs
To:	Division of Decommissioning, Uranium Recovery and Waste Programs
Cruz Z
Shared Package
ML19311C699	List: ML19311C700 ML19311C701 ML19311C702 ML19311C703 ML19311C704 ML19311C705 ML19311C706 ML19311C707 ML19311C708 ML19311C710 ML19311C711 ML19311C713 ML19311C714 ML19311C715 ML19311C716 ML19311C717 ML19311C718 ML19311C720 ML19311C721 ML19311C722 ML19311C723 ML19311C724 ML19311C725 ML19311C726 ML19311C727 ML19311C728 ML19311C729 ML19311C730 ML19311C731 ML19311C732 ML19311C733 ML19311C734 ML19311C735 ML19311C736 ML19311C737 ML19311C738 ML19311C739 ML19311C740
References
Download: ML19311C722 (49)

Text

STATE OF CALIFORNIA-THE RESOURCES AGENCY EDMUND G. B~OWN JR., Governor DEPARTMENT OF PARKS AND RECREATION P.O. BOX 2390 SACRAMENTO 9!1811 (916) 445-8006 DEC 18 1980 Mr. Oino Scaletti Environmental Projects Division of Site, Safety, and Environmental Analysis U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555

Dear Mr. Scaletti:

San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, Units #2 and #3, Operating License Stage My staff has recently completed review of the "National Register Assessment Program of Cultural Resources of the 230 KV Transmission Line Rights-of-Way from San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station to Black Star Canyon and Santiago Substation and to Encina and Mission Valley Substation", prepared by WESTEC Services, dated September 1980.

In accordance with the provisions of the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation's Procedures set forth in 36 CFR 800, Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966 and the Memoranda of Agreement of October 29, 1979, I have the following comments to offer:

1. Based on the information I have been provided, I concur that the following sites are not eligible for National Register of Historic Places: CA-Ora-419, Ora-823, Ora-786, Ora-787, Ora-700, Ora-782, Ora-784, Ora-785, Ora-832, SDi-6693, SOi-6131, SOi-5444, SOt-6136, SDi-6137, SDi-6150, SDi-6151, and SOi-6152.

2. Sites CA-Ora-640, Ora-458, and SDi-6133 are outside the area of potential environmental impact for this undertaking.

3. I do not concur that site CA-Ora-824 is not eligible for the National Register of Historic Places. I feel that this site may be eligible based on Bean and Vane's findings in 1979 that this site possesses a high potential for significance.

4. I concur that the following sites are eligible for inclusion in the National Register as important components of the proposed San Joaquin Archeological District: CA-Ora-495, Ora-496, and Ora-499.

5. The following sites have been determined eligible for inclusion in the National Register as important components of the Upper Aliso Creek Archeological District: CA-Ora-447, Ora-438, and Ora-725.

6. The following sites should also be included as eligible properties within the Upper Aliso Creek Archeological District: CA-Ora-905, Ora-828, Ora-825, Ora-826, and Ora-827.

D-1

D-2 Mr. Oino Scaletti Page 2

7. I concur that the following sites are eligible for inclusion in the National Register as significant components of the proposed Santiago Creek Archeological District: CA-Ora-829, Ora-830, and Ora-831.

8. I concur that the following sites are eligible for inclusion in the National Register as significant components of the proposed Agua Hedionda Archeological District: CA-SDi-6135, SDi-6133, and SDi-6140.

9. I also concur that the following sites are locally significant and are eligible for the National Register under Criterion "d" (36 CFR 1202.6): CA-Ora-498, SDi-4538, SDi-6130, SDi-6138, and SDi-6149.

10. Formal determinations of eligibility for these sites and districts should be sought from the Keeper of the Register in accordance with 36 CFR 1204.

11. I concur with the report's findings that this undertaking will have No Effect on eligible sites CA-Ora-905, Ora-828, Ora-826, Ora-827, Ora-829, and SDi-4538.

12. I concur with the report's findings that operation and maintenance (O&M) of access roads will affect the following eligible sites:

CA-Ora-498, Ora-824, Ora-495, Ora-447, Ora-496, Ora-499, Ora-825, Ora-725, Ora-830, Ora-831, and SDi-6130. However, I feel that there will no No Adverse Effect on these resources if one of the two following conditions can be met:

a. Access roads can be covered with a chemically inert, visually distinguishable fill within the boundaries of these sites in a manner which will preclude future ground disturbance of the cultural deposit during future O&M activities on access roads, or;

b. O&M activities can be restricted to access roads, and the remaining research potential of surface artifacts within the provenience of existing access roads can be used to define the important factors which should be considered in determining the effects of continued disturbances as proposed in the Cultural Resource Management Plan on page 359 of the subject report.

This program should be oriented towards defining the value of research potential and the effects that various activities may have on disturbed surface sites in similar environmental contexts. The program should also be responsive to the Advisory Council's Supplementary Guidance for Treatment of Archeological Properties supporting a No Adverse Effect Determination.

D-3 Mr. Dino Scaletti Page 3

13. The information I have been provided indicates that undisturbed cultural deposits will be affected by O&M of access roads in the vicinity of site CA-Ora-438. However, it is my opinion that there will be No Adverse Effect if one of the two following conditions can be met:

a. Access roads can be covered with a chemically inert, visually distinguishable fill within the boundaries of this site in a manner which will preclude future ground disturbance of the cultural deposit during future O&M activities, or;

b. O&M activities can be restricted to access roads, and a Data Recovery Plan is implemented in accordance with the Advisory Council's Supplementary Guidance for Treatment of Archeological Properties supporting a No Adverse Effect Determination. The rationale for this recommendation is stated in the above referenced Guidance on pages 10 and 11, "An Undertaking may be taken to have no adverse effect *** if the agency is committed to a data recovery program *** if *** the property is shown to be subject to destruction and deterioration regardless of the undertaking, so the agency's action is only slightly hastening a process that is inevitable in any event. 11

14. O&M activities and construction will have an effect on sites CA-SDi-6135, SDi-6138, SDi-6149, and SDi-6140. However, it is my opinion that there will be No Adverse Effect on these sites if a Data Recovery Plan is implemented in accordance with the Advisory Council's Supplementary Guidance for Treatment of Archeological Properties supporting a No Adverse Effect Determination. The rationale for this recommendation is the same as that cited in Item 13.b. above.

15. Concurrence of these determinations of effect should be sought from the Advisory Council in accordance with 36 CFR 800.4.c.

If you should have any questions, please contact Daniel Bell of my staff at (916) 322-8702.

Sincerely,

/<PV~~

Or

• Knox Me 11 on State Historic Preservation Officer Office of Historic Preservation D-63170

D-4 Mr. Dina Scaletti Page 4 cc: Mr. L. Jack Brunton Licensing and Environmental Department San Diego Gas and Electric Company P.O. Box 1831 San Diego, CA 92112 Mr. David White Southern California Edison Company P.O. Box 800 2244 Walnut Grove Avenue Rosemead, CA 91770 Ms. Lesley C. McCoy Cultural Systems Research, Inc.

8470 Via Sonoma, #32 La Jolla, CA 92037 Ms. Roxanna Phillips WESTEC Services, Inc.

3211 Fifth Avenue San Diego, CA 92103 Mr. Charles Niquette Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Lake Plaza-South, Suite 616 44 Union Boulevard Lakewood, CO 80228

APPENDIX E CALIFORNIA COASTAL COMMISSION, MARINE REVIEW COMMITTEE REPORT

C:AUFORNIA C:OASTAL COMMISSION 631 Howard Street, Son Francisco 94105-(415) 543-8555 Thus; the Commission can impose new conditions on the cooling system only i f the conditions are based on MRC recommendations and the Commission judges the conditions TO: State Commissioners to be "reasonable". New conditions can be based only on an MRC finding that "sub-stantial adverse effects on the marine environment are likely to occur, or are FROM: Michael Fischer, Executive Director occuring, through the operation on Units l, 2, and 3 **** *

SUBJECT:

Report of San Onofre Nuclear Power Plant Marine Review C0!11111ittee Since its beginning, the MRC has submitted a number of reports to the Commission.

(For Commission consideration at theFebruary 17-19Meeting.) After receiving an MRC report in mid-1979 the Commission, at its November 21, 1979 meeting, asked the MRC to take one final "best shot" at predicting effects on the marine environment prior to the start of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) hearings summary on the operating license for Units 2 and B. The MRC has now submitted that report, KRC Document 80-04(1). The conclusions are attached to this staff report, and the The 1974 permit for the san onofre Nuclear Power Plant's Units 2 and 3 established MRC will present the conclusions to the Commission at its January 20-22 meeting.

a three member Marine Review Committee (MRC) to study the effects of the Plant's oooling system on ocean life and to make recommendations to the Commission. Units Staff Analysis 2 and 3 of the Plant are not yet operational. The MRC has submitted a report (conclusions attached) predicting affects on fish, kelp, plankton and other ocean The Marine Review Coaunittee has, over the last six years, conducted monitoring and lifo. The MRC recommends against any des.ii:gn changes to the coolin<; sustem at this predicting studies that seem to be as comprehensive and thorough as possible given time. Staff recommends the Commission take note of the MRC reco~m~~enda.tions and the state-of-the-art in predicting effects on the large and 'dynamic nearshore ocean endorse a future monitoring program to determine actual effects on ocean life in the environment. It is possible that the square kilo~eter offshore SONGS is the most future after system operation. If substantial adverse effects are found, the Com- heavily sampled and studied patch of tho ocean anywhere. Predicting the effects mission can impose desiqn or operational chenges or mitigation me~sures, based on of the SONGS cooling system on o~ean life has had to face a number of inherent MRC recommendations. But, given MRC predictions, major syste~ design changes in the difficulties, including: understanding the lite eycles of ocean organisms; obtaining future* seem unlikely. enough samples ovar a long eno~qh time period to enable statistical analyses; devel-T I-' oping quantitative models of water flows, turbidity and population dynamics; and, Background most important, attempting to separate out effects or likely effects of*the cooling system from other major factors affecting ocean life, including storms, water The Commission's predecessor Coastal Zone Commission approved the construction of temperature and chemistry changes, fishing, changes in nutrient levels, changes ln Units 2 and 3 of the San onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS*!* on February 20, migratory habits, and natural population fluctuations.

1974 (Permit No. *183-73). Condition B of the Permit provided for the establishment of an applicant funded Marine Review COmmittee (MRC) co~posed of an appointee of Design Changes. The MRC has needed to use models and numerous assumptions in the State Commission, an appointee Of Southam california Edison OomP4ny, and an assessing possible effects on liv.inq ocean populations. suchexercfsescan give appointee of the appellants. The appellants are coordinated by Friends of the Earth. scenarios, but not high confidence predictions. The MRC report consequently presents The Condition provides for the MRC to undertake a *comprehensive and contin¢.ng study a number of estimates o£ future effects on fish larvae, small shrimp, plankton, and of the marine environment offshore from san onofre *** to predict, and later to measure, and a kelp bed. It does not, however, state that these effects are likely or certain the effects of San onofre Units 2 and 3 on the marine environment *** " (Condition Bl). ~o occur, and, therefore, it does not state that "substantial advorse effects on the marine enviroment are likely to occur", as required in Condition B6 for modification The MRC can make recommendations to the COmmission, based on MRC studies, and the of the cooling system. The report, then,explicitly recommends against design changes recol!lm<lnda.tions ca.r:~ include changes that the MRC believes necessary in the cooling in the cooling system at this time, while stating "it is possible that we have system for Units 2 and 3. This cooling system takes in large amounts of seawater to grossly underestimated tha ecological consequences of SONGS Units 1, 2, and 3" (Page 7).

cool the units and then discharges the he~ted water back to the ocean. Condition B6 The actual effects can only be determined through monitoring the ocean environment of the Permit states: after the Units bec~me operational. The MRC has extensive results frompre~operational sampling and data collection and will be in a position to implement a useful post-Should the study at any time indicate that the project will not comply operational monitoring program. Staff is therefore recommending the Commission with the regulatory requirements of State or Federal water quality agencies, endorse a continued MRC monitoring program and ask that the program design and budget or that substantial adverse effects on the marine environment are likely to be submitted to the Commission. If the MRC finds "substantial adverse effects" the occur, or are occurring, through the operation of Units 1, 2, and 3, the Commission may still impose conditions accordingly.

applicants shall immediately undertake such modifications to the cooling system as may reasonably be required to reduce such effects or comply with Mitigation. one such condition could involve mitigation for damage determined by such regulatory requirements (which can be made while construction is going the MRC. The Commission directed the MRC to explore mitigation alternatives. This on and could be as extensive as requiring cooling towers if that is the last attempt at predictions has taken up most MRC time, and the MRC report states it will reCOSllllenda.tion)

• The State C0!11111iasion shall then further condition the recommend to the Commission which mitigation measures, in addition to artificial permit accordingly. reefs for kelp, should be examined.

Radiological~, Monitorinq. A 1979 MRC report detailed a number of inadequacies in the radiological monitoring program in the ocean uound SONGS. The Commission maril.le review committee directed staff to report these inadequacies to the SOuthern california Edison co., the NUclear Regulatory Commission, and the california Department of Health Services 0/flu: (806} 961-3104 and to pursue remedies. SCE has since revised its radiological 1110nitoring program DVT.OFBIOLOclCAL SCIENCES extensively and has submitted it to the NRC. Both the NRC and the MRC author of the VNIV£1WTT OF CAUFOIINIA SANTA liAIIBAliA, CA IIJ/01!

previous report are evaluating the revised program at present.

staff Recommendation November 17, 1980 Staff recommends the Collllllission adopt the following resolution:

The Commission thanks the Marine Review COmmittee for the report "Predictions of the Effects of San onofre Nuclear Generating Station and RecolDIIIIIndations", adopted Mr. Bill Ahearn m1J@lill~JID unaniiiiOusly by the members of the MRC. The Commission notes that the MRC doss not california Coastal Commission predict: at this ti1!18 that substantial adverse effects on the marine environment: are 4th Floor NOV ~t 1980 likely to occur fron the operations of the SONGS cooling system, and that the MRC 631 Boward Street recommends against system design changes at tthis tims. However, the Commission also Sen Francisco, california 94105 CAI.IFORNIA notes that the MRC states it may have grossly underestimated these effects. The COASTAL COMMISSION Commission agrees, therefore, that the MRC should conduct: a comprehensive and

Dear Bill:

thorough monitoring program of the* effecta after SONGS becomes operational and requests that the MRC submit the design and cost of such a program to the Commission. This letter formally transmits to the California Coastal Collllllisaion, under If such monitoring discovers substantial adverse effects on the marine environment, separate cover, the Marine Review Committee's predictions concsrning the the Commission can, at that time, based on MRC recommendations, impose new conditions effects of San Onofre Units 1, 2 and 3 upon the marine ecosyst~. The including design or operating changes or mitigation measures. The Commission recog- Rsport also contains a study of options snd a set of recommendations to nizes, given the MRC predicted effects of the cooling system, that future imposition the Collllllisaion. These predictions and recommendations have been agreed

.., ol! any major design changes to the cooling system is unlikely. upon unanimously &y the Committee. The Appendices vill follow in approxi-mately two weeks.

~.)

A later report will discuss mitigation in more detail.

Yours sincerely, 62--.c.~

Rimlllon c. Fay (/

&~

/Vt~

William W. Murdoch (Chairman}

CONTEMTS Page Introduction Options and Recoaaendationa 4 Predictions Fish 8 REPOII.T OF THE lWWIE IIEVI!W COtiiiTTEE TO THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL CCHfiSSION~ ~p PREDICTIONS OF THE En'ECTS OF 15 SAil' ONOFRE NUCLEAA Gl!NEitATING STATION Hydda 18 AII'D RECOMMElfDATIO!IS PAllT I: RECOMMElfDATIOMS, PREDICTIONS, AII'D RATIONALE Pl&nkton 20 Soft Bottom Comaunitiaa 22 Bard Bottom Comaunitiea 24 Rationale m

~ Fish 26 ll:elp 41 Mysids 58 Plankton 62 Soft Bottom Communities 65 Marine Review Committee Hard Bottom Communities 67 William W. Murdoch, Chairman University of California Byron J. Mechalas Southern California Edison Company Rimmon C. Fay Pacific Bio-Marine Labs, Inc.

MRC Document 80-04 (I)

INTtlODUCTION l'he effects of the cooling system of Unit 1 upon the marine ecosystem Tbe Marine Raviev Committee waa charged, in Permit llo. 183-73 of the were described in MB.C Annual Reports for 1978 and 1979. l'he documented California Coastal Commission, to carry out "a comprehensive and continuing effects are reatricted to a region Within a kilometer or two of SONGS. In study of the marine envi1'0!1111e11t offshore from San Onofre * *

• to predict, seeking to predict the effecte of Units 2 and 3, HRC has looked at the loss end later to measure, the effects of San Onofre Units 2 and 3 on the marine *of organiliiiiS taken into the intakes, the possible losses caused by water environment, * *

• in a manner tbat vi11 result in the broedeat possible movements driven by tha diffuser plumes, and the effects of the diffusers consideration of the effects of Units 1, 2 and 3 on the entire marine and beat treatments on the physical environment, and hence upon the biota.

environment in the vicinity of San Onofre." Tbia Raport responds to tha l'he predictions presented in this Report are in* moat cases close to charge to predict the effects of Units 2 and 3. final. Although we can and Will obtain some more information on the major San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) Unit 1 has been opsrating parts of the ecosystem near SONGS before Units 2 and 3 begin operation, ve since 1968. Almost ISO billion gallons of seawater per year circulate have obtained moat of the information it is possible to obtain with a faaa-through the Plant. Water flows in. through a sing.le intake and is discharged ible axpenditure of effort. 'IIbera major uncertainties remain, further study

']; through a sing.le discbarge pipe .at l9°F above the intake temperature. Tbe vill not in general resolve them; they are largely an inescapable result of construction of SONGS Units 2 and 3 is virtually completed. Each has a the t>ractical difficulties in studying real ecological systems, and of tha sing.le intake, each draWing in seawater at a rate of 830,000 gallons per nature of such systems. l'ha ezceptions are kelp, where future -.rork should minute, whith Will result in an estimated flov of allllost 700 billion gallons provide more, and :lmportant, information, and some modelling studies that per year. Each also discharges its heated effluent through a series of 63 have not yet been completed. At this point, however, future -.rork on predic-diffuser ports set along e kilometer-long pipe that tapers from 18' to tions is aimed mainly at guiding our monitoring studies.

10'-14' in diameter (Figura 1, Maps 1 and 2). Tbis discharged water moves Following this Introduction, the Report presents our recom=andations.

rapidly towards the surface, entraining and moving with it roughly 10 times Tbere follows a brief statement of predictions for each major part of the its own volume of water. As it spreads, this water mass moves various dis- cOI!ImUDity, and a more extensive Rationala, which explains how we arrived at tances offshore, depending upon the prevailing currents. HRC baa measured the predictions. l'he Rationale unavoidably contains soma technical discussion, these currents, and Southern California Edison baa produced a physical but we have tried to write it so that the reader unfamiliar With the study model of SONGS' water 1110vemant. can follow it. Finally, a aeries of separate Appendicaa accompanies this Report. Tbese appendices are the reports of various contractors, and

analyses (by MRC and its consultants) of a number of difficult technical OPTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS issues. The Rationale refers to those Appendices, where necessary, by proj-ect, number and, if appropriate, page number. Options We would like to stress two findings that have general importance for San onofre Kalp bed (SOK) and nearshore fish populations are ths major management of and planning for nearshore coastal waters in California. parts of the marine ecosystem that SONGS Units 1, 2 and 3 could significantly First, we reiterate a previous conclusion that, in open coastal situations, ham. Mysids, and perhaps zooplankton, are of less direct interest to a diffuser design is likely to he ecologically more damaging than a single society, but they also might sustain significant and quite large impacts.

point discharge, even though the latter would ~alate present State thermal Io the light of the predictions, MRC reviewed a number of possible recom-discharge standards. mendations that could be made to the Commission:

Second, we have recently obtained evidence that the early (larval) 1. Make no design changes at this time. Monitor the effects.

stages of nearshore sport and commercial fish species (e.g. bass, halibut) 2. Make no design changes at this time. Examine the feasibility of are particularly sparse very close to shore, while the larvae of fodder fish mitigating some or all of the effects, with a ~ew to recommending mitiga-1"{1 species are abundant tight into shallow waters. Fodder fish populations are tion measures to the Commission.

V1 probably better able than sport and commercial species to withstand addi- 3. Extend the intake pipes to beyond the 30 meter depth.

tional mortality on their larval stages. If this pattern holds along the 4. Redesign the diffusers of Units 2 and 3, to convert them to single whole California coast, it should be used as basic information in future point discharges, located either 4 to 5 km offshore or very close inshore.

planning - e.g. the placement of intakes and outfells. This is not a blanket 5. Convert the once-through cooling system to cooling towers.

recommendation for placing structures close to ahara, but rather a recommenda- Option 1 would raquire only a monitoring program, which would be tion to weigh the possible losses of fish larvae in such decisions. carried out over several years to determine the effects of SONGS on the marine ecoeystlllll. This progrlllll, in addition, would generate important information for future coastal planning, and would test bow well we can predict the ecological consaquences of a ujor coastal installation.

Option 2 l!IRC has completed a short "paper" feaaibility study of cer-tain kinds of titigatioD (Mitigation Appandix). This study describes various Nthoda of aahancing tiM production of economically important species, such as reef fish cd abalone. Sout!Mrn california l!dison has

-s- established an experimental reef aimed at producing a kelp bed and associated also wUl cause an unknown, but probably significant, amount of 1110rtality organisms, including fish and abalone. Other mitigation measures may be in mysida, plankton and fish larvae. A single point discharge would greatly feasible. reduce this latter 1110rtality, and moving the discharge either close inshore It should be atrelised that mitigation eould not be expeeted to replace or further offshore would re1110ve the kelp bed from the influence of the dis-completely the biota lost through SONGS' operation. San Onofre Kelp bed charge. A single point discharge would violate the State thetl!lal tolerances, could perhaps be replaced by a similar kelp bed, but fish losses would but Ml!.C balievea this would cause much less ecological damage than the probably be replaced (partially) by a somewhat different mix of species. diffusers. *It might be possible to make practical use of the waste heat Lost mysids and planltton are not likely. to be replaced by any known mitiga- from an iushore discharge. Ml!.C has not evaluated in detail the ecological tion measure. k/l adequate mitigation study would therefore need to address consequences of these two alternatives.

the acceptability of "replacing" losses of one species by increasing the Rec011111l81ldations production of another. li'e recommend Options 1 and 2., and recommend against design changes at option 3 The possibility of extending the intakes out to deeper water this time (Options 3, 4 and 5).

~ was suggested previously ~ 1979 Interim Report) as a means of (1) reducing Monitoring is needed to measure the effects of Units 1, 2 and 3, as re-the turbidity of intake water, so that the effects on SOK would be reduced, quired by the Permit. It is also esssntial that the effects are measured and (2) reducing the kill of nearshore fish larvae. With regard to aim (1), and compared with Ml!.C's quantitative predictions. Part of our study is a the turbidity study (Turbidity Appsndix) suggests that much of the turbid unique effort to make such predictions, and it is only by testing them that water passing over SOK will originate at the inshore segment of tha diffusers we can determine if such prediction is possible, how accurate it is, and and will be carried offshore by secondary utrainment, so that the gain from what changes are needed to make better predictions in future planning. Pre-changing the intakes would be relatively small. li'ith regard to aim (2), our dictions of probable effects, whether made explicit or not, are of course recent analyses show that the larvae of nearshore sport and eo111118rcial an integral part of all coastal planning.

species are relatively sparse iu the present intake area, and are quite Ve also recommend that MRC's remaining and ongoing prediction efforts dense out to about 7 km offshore. The gain in moving the intakes offshore be completed. These are now small studies. Such quantitative predictions would therefore be 111Bin1y a reduction in fodder fish kills, while we would are illlportant, not only in themselves, but as a guide to the future monitor-likely kill !!2!!. of sport cd c011111111rcial species. ing program.

option 4 The diffusers carry turbid water over the kelp bed. They It is important to monitor the success of Southern .California Edison's experimental reef, now established some 5 km south of SONGS. The evidence

on the efficacy of reefa, especially aa a baais for new kelp beds, is equivo- PREDICTIONS cal and in contention, and this experiment will allow us to judge the best

!1§!!.

available California reef technology. MRC will present to the Commission, at a later date, a recommendation on whether or not other mitigation measures Introduction should be examined. Most fish caught in Southern California are netted by commercial We recommend against moving the intake pipes (Option 3), for the reasons fishenen, and most come from fishing areas more than a few ldlometers off given under that Option. We also recommend against Options 4 and 5 at this the coast. By contrast, most sport fish in Southern California are caught time. Destruction of the offshore portion of the kelp bed is a major pos- close to the land - within the 33 California Fish and Game "fishing blocks" sible effect of the diffusers. However, at this moment we are not certain that are contiguous with the shore. In this Report we are concerned mainly this will occur, and it is also possible that the effect could be mitigated. with those sport fish and with commercial catches taken close to shore, for Some mitigation of fish losses may also be possible. it is only this nearshore group of fish that SONGS is expected to affect.

It is possible that we have grossly underestimated the ecological con- In evaluating the predictions, therefore, it should be kept in mind that 8 sequences of SONGS Units l, 2 and 3. If monitoring proves this to be the SONGS is not expected to influence the great bulk of the fish populations case, we will re-examine the possibility of recommending major design changes. that are harvested by California fishermen.

The species that concern us are fish that live as adults mainly within about 4 or 5 km of shore and that produce planktonic (drifting) eggs and larvae in the same zone. Among these species there are two groups: the nearshore sport and commercial species, the harvest of which is ~de up mainly by halibut, white seabass, kelp bass and sand bass, and the nearshore fodder fish (or forage fish) that form a major portion of the prey of the sport and commercial species.

In the predictions, we present various numbers to help the reader evaluate the likely effects of SONGS. It is easy to misinterpret these numbers, and we give here some essential background information. If we know the abundance and sizes of all of the halibut, say, in some area along the

coast, we can calculate the total living weight (biomass) of halibut in that Predictions region. This is called the standing~* Each year, there are additions

1. Nearshore Sport and Commercial Fish to this standing stock - some individuals that were larvae grow up to become It is probable that, because of SONGS' activities, somewhere between 27 adults, and many of those already adult grow and gain weight. If we could and 60 tons of nearshore sport and commercial fish production will be lost add up all the accumulated growth (in weight) we would be able to say how annually (Table 1}. We feel the lower figure is more probable than the upper much .!!!!!!!. bi011111as bad been added to the population. This is the .!!!!!!!!!!. produc-figure. Halibut is the species that will be most affected. Fish move about,

~ of new halibut tissue. We cannot estimate this directly, but a general so any loss of production will be spread over some area. We do not know how rule of thumb is that a sport and com=ercial population gains about 60% of large an area, and provide a comparison between the consequences of spreading its standing stock weight per year. If our harvesting techniques were per-the loss over a small (45 km) and a la~ge (300 km) stretch of coastal waters.

fect we could take all of this production each year as harvest, and keep the A loss of 27 tone would be equivalent to about 6% of the annual produc-standing stock steady from one year to the next. However, inevitably some tion of nearshore sport and commercial fish in the fou~ fish blocks covering fish die of disease and parasites, others are eaten by predators, and so on.

about 45 km of coastline near SONGS. It is equivalent to about one-third of 7':

en The annual harvest, therefore, *is always less than the .!!!!!!.!!!!. production.

the most recently documented (1975) harvest of these species from these four In these nearshore sport and commercial species near San Onofre we estimate fishing blocks (85 tons). This does .!!2,!;. mean that all of the losses will the harvest is roughly a quarter of production.

occur in these four blocks, or that the harvest can be expected to decline As long as the harvest plus other factors do not take more than the by either 6% or one-third.

annual production, the population will not decline. However, if, on average, If the losses were to be spread evenly ove~ 300 km (about three-quarters harvest plus other losses are greater than production, the population will of the length of the california Bight), then the loss in annual production decline. If they are leas than production, the population will increase, over this area would be 1%. The loss in~ could be more than 1% of until it approaches a l:lmit (say its food supply), at which time production that caught over 300 km. For example, to take an extreme case, if all vill begin to decline and the population will level off.

natural losses are unavoidable, than all of the loss would COllie out of the We stress that the numbers given below are in all cases appro>dmste.

harvest, which, for the 1975 harvest, would decline by roughly 10%.

They give us an indication of the likely size of effects, but they do not There is quite strong evidence that the stocks of nearshore spo~t and tell us precisely what losses will be.

commercial fish (especially halibut) have declined in the past two decades.

We *believe that these population& are unlikely to be able to compensate for

(i.e. make up for) significant additional mortality. However, the projected mixed, ao that losses would be spread over the Bight (roughly 400 km). lf loss of sport and commercial fish, caused by SONGS, is sufficiently small the losses were spread over the Bight, and if no compensation occurred, they.

that ve believe it will not, in itself, have a significant effect on these would be equivalent to about 7% of the annual production of these fish.

populations.

The projected loss of the equivalent of 300 tons of fodder fish produc-Although SONGS alone is expected to have a minor effect upon the popula-tion is owing mainly to the loss of larvae in the intakes. We expect there tions of nearshore sport and coamercial fish, the cumulative effect of a will be additional losses caused by the diffusers carrying larvae to inhos-number of sources of mortality of this order would be expected to contribute pitable environments offshore. These losses could be very large - greater to continued decline in these populations. Future planning in the California than those caused by the intakes - but we cannot predict them accurately.

Bight, therefore, should not evaluate additional installations and other The projected intake losses alone are sizeable, While we cannot estilllate environmental insults as independent evants, but should consider their cu=u-how the populations will be affected {because we do not know enough about lative effects.

compensation), the accumulation of effects of this order would be expected

2. Fodder Fish eventually to cause declines in these stocks. Thus, while SONGS itself may

~ Anchovies probably contribute more than any other species to the diet not cause such declines (and we do not know whether it will or not), we would of nearshore sport end commercial fish. Although enormous numbers of be concerned about accumulating additional losses of this magnitude in the anchovy larvae will be killed by SONGS, we do not expect this vast population future.

to be affected as a result of the operation of SONGS.

We expect that the direct imping1!111ent of juvenile and adult fodder fish Nearshore fodder fish species are also important in the diets of near-(111Ainly queenfish) in the intakes will cause measurable changes in the age shore aport and commercial fish. The two most abundant nearshore fodder structure and sex ratio of this species to a distance of several kilometers fish are queenfish and white croaker. SONGS is expected to cause a loss 1n from SONGS.

production of nearshore fodder fieh of at least 300 tons per year.* Unlike

3. Mechanisms the sport and co=mercisl species, there is no evidence that the fodder fish J!'ish !oases are caused by three main mechanisms: (1) direct impinge-populations are declining, so that we could expect some compensation for ment of juvenila and adult fish in the intakes, (2) loss of immature stages these losses. We do not know how much, so we cannot predict a precise net (especially larvae) in the intakes, and (3) loss of immature stages in the loss. Fodder fish in general move around more than sport and commercial*

diffusers. Mechanisms {2) and (J) sre the most important. The diffusers species, and the populations in the entire Bight may well be thoroughly could kill larvae (a) through subjecting them to turbulent shear and {b) by

• All weight figures are wet weight snd are in metric tons.

carrying inshore larvae to an inhospitable environment offshore (transloea- Table 1. Suaury of predicted effects of SONGS Units 1, 2 and 3 upon tion). nearshore fish species. Numbers are matric tona per year.

Intake losses: Our recent analyses have yielded a critical piece of info11114tion that 114y be important in the placement of intakes. We have In sport and evidance that the larvae of nearshore sport and c,_rcial fish species are c0111111ereial In biomass In production production unlike 1110St nearshore larvae and are qnite sparse very close to shore where (1) Losaea by direct impingement the intakes are. Because of this peculiar distribution, we estimate the of juvanUe and adult fish in intakes loss of sport and coaaercial fish production, owing to larval 1110rtality via Fodder fish 31-51 25-41 0-4 the intakes, to be only 20 tona per year, rather than 160 tons per year aa Sport and commercial fish 7-12 4-7 4-7 previously expected, thus reducing tba predicted impact to one that is rala-

!Uectric rays 7-13 5-8 tivaly minor.

Other fish 5-8 3-5 Diffuser losses: We satimata that relatively few fish larvae will be 7' killed by turbulent shear, and believe that this will be a minor effect. We Subtotal 4-11 t3 (2) Losssa by kill of planktonic also do POt expect tbe larvas of sport and commercial species to suffer trena- stases in intakes location mortality in the plume. However, translocation may cause very large Fodder fish 358 287 3-29 losses of fodder fish larvae. Sport and c~rcial fish 34 20 20

4. UevallinB Effects of SONGS Subtotal 23-49 SONGS' diffusers will bring extra nutrients to the surface, and move (3) Damage to kelp bed 0-9 ()..3 0-3 them offshore. This *could result each year in the production of roushly 460 tons of anchovy. We believe this will have a negligible effect on sport TOTAL 27-63 and eosmercial fish production, and virtually no effect on nearshore sport and commercial fish production.

~ Predictions (l) It is likely that SONGS Units 2 and 3 will alter the normal state Introduction by reducing the density of kelp plants in the offshore portion of the bed.

~elp beds constitute a distinct and important habitat in the nearshore

!his is the major area of the bed. The reduction could be very small or very

~:-~;ecosystem in Southern California. Over 760 spec~es of animals (inver-

.. ' * .c :es and fish) and over 120 species of plants have been found in kelp large. There are several confounding factors which prevent us from stating ca Southern California. At least two fish species (kelp perch and kelp a most likely extent of reduction in abundance at present.

..: .. c~; :' *.sh) are rarely found outside of kelp beds, and many invertebrate (2) SONGS probably will lengthen the periods during which the bed is

>..

_;s occur most commonly in this habitat. In the San Onofre kelp bed (SOK) absent, or very sparse, following catastrophic die-offs.

(3) We expect to see some reduction in the abundance of shrimp species alo~a we have recorded 164 species of animals and 16 species of plants -

in the canopy in a portion of the kelp bed. No quantitative prediction is cerc~~nly an underestimate of the actual diversity. In the three local kelp possible. This change could alter the diets of fish in the bed.

beds (SOK, San Mateo kelp and Barn kelp) we have recorded 384 species of

,., an~:s end 36 species of plants. Kelp beds are highly productive of aport Mechanisms

~ fish. including the highly valued kelp bass. Turbidity: SONGS will affect the bed mainly by increasing the turbidity

~lp plants grow very rapidly, and as plants die, or parts of plants downstream from the points of discharge. This increase will be small in brea£ off, they produce food for bottom-dwelling animals. In December 1978, summer, but in spring it is predicted to lower light levels in the water for ~ample, SOK produced an estimated 9 tons of detritus per day. column. The reduction at the bottom in the offshore portion of the bed is 3an Onofre is in an area where kelp beds ~re (now) rather scarce. predicted to be about 4U%. The lower light intensities that result will

!!a**..-*~=, the local beds maintain ecological continuity between the more probably reduce the frequency of successful recruitment of young kelp plants.

"-"C*H:3ive beds to the north and south. It is also likely to reduce the growth of kelp plants. Both effects are

~storically, San Onofre kelp bed has eXhibited two states: (a) the likely to reduce both the biomass of kelp in the bed and the number of "no-c=l" state in which much of the available rocky substrate is covered by plants.

kelp as is now the case, but the degree of cover varies; (b) periods following Fouling: SONGS' plumes are also likely to increaee the degree of cataatrophic die-offa of adult plants, during which the bed is non-existent, fouling of kelp plants by various invertebrates that settle on to and live at *'*'Y low coverage, or is recovering. on kelp. Increased turbidity, and perhaps turbulence, are among the mechan-isms that could increase fouling. Fouling is likely to 1) decrease the rate

of kelp growth, 2) increase the rete of loss of parts of the plant, and

~

3) perhepa increase the death rate of plants.

Introduction Sea Urchins: Urchin populations may also be increased because SONGS Mysids are small shrimp-like crestures that live in shallow water just will increase the supply of particulate organic 1114tter that the urchins can above the ocean floor, or amongst kelp canopy and other benthic algae. At use ss food. Our studies show that urchins kill a large fraction of kelp night some of them rise several meters into the water colU11111, and at this plants in parts of the bed, and they probably also interfere with recruitment time they are more likely to be entrained by SONGS. Unlike true plankton, by grazing on 8111411, young kalp plants.

they can swim agetnse weak currents, and so can maintain their position to Sedimentation: The operation of SONGS is not expected to alter the some extene.

sedimentation rate in SOK.

Mysids were chosen as a target organin for several reasons.

Temperature: Temperaeure changes caused by the SONGS plume will be

1) They hove similar biology to a number of other groups of hypo-small and are not likely to affect the bed sigoificantly.

plankton" that live close to the bottom.

Nutrients: Part of the time, the concentration of nutrients may be

2) They are important food items for a number of fodder fish (e.g.

71 somewhat incressed in the water surrounding adult kelp plants, as a result

~ queenfish), which in turn ere fed on by sport and collllllercial fish.

of upwelling via entrai!liiW1t. This may increase the growth rate of kelp

3) Like a number of plankton species, soma mysid species live only plants.

close to shore and will be taken into the SONGS cooling system and will also Competitors: When kelp is removed from the substrate other plants and be transported offshore by the diffusers. However, since they have a longer animals can grow in its place. These organisms may prevent or slow the re-generation time than plankton, they are likely to recover mote slowly from colonization of kelp, by taking up the space. Although ve have information such extra mortality, and are therefore more likely to show local depressions on these organisms, it ia not possible to predict whether SONGS will signifi-in density. Mysids are thsrafote expected to be a good "marker" group for cantly influence these interactions.

the effects of SONGS.

Toxic Substances: During the course of the studies at SOOGS, circum-stantial evidence has been found for the existence of toxic materials in the . Predictions discharged water from Unit 1. We can make no definitive statement as to 1. Our 131Ysid studies indicate that we should see a reduction in density whether or not such toxic: substances will be discharged by Units 2 and 3, except of about 50% for several kilometers away from SONGS, and 8111aller depressions that chlorine will continue to be used on an intermittent basis* on the order of 10 lall long. There are several factors that prevent us from

being certain about these effects. Firat, we are forced to make asaumptions

~

about the numbers killed by the diffusers, since we cannot measure this loss.

Second, we do not knOtt how strong compensation will be. Introduction

2. SONGS intakes will kill several billion mysids per year, weighing the plankton is made up mainly of s~l drifting organisms that are SQ-60 tons. The diffusers could kill several hundred tons of myaids. !f, generally moved about passively by currents. Phytoplankton are single-celled for example, 10% of those entrained by the diffusers were killed by being plants that fo= the basis of 110st animal production in the oceans. Zoo-carried offshore to unfavorable habitat, the annual kill would be rather less plankton are small animals, some of which can swim actively and control their than 200 tone. We are unable, at the moment, to give a most probable esti- movements to some degree. they include the meroplankton, such as clam mate of diffuser losses. larvae, which are the planktonic stages of bottom-dwelling organisms, and HYsids constitute about one-half of the total of epibenthic organisms holoplankton, which spend their entire life in the plankton. The predictions focus on the plankton as a balanced indigenous community, and as food for fish.

that are subject to entrainment. A similar mortality rate for all of this group would thus give an annual kill of all organisms of this type of about

~

Predictions 350 tone.

1. the plankton studies hsve established that some zooplankton species If these 350 tons were lost to the fodder fish, we could expect an are restricted close to shore (within 3-4 km), snd it is probable that SONGS annual loss of fodder fish production on the order of 30 tons. However, the will reduce the local density of this group. It is probable that there will MRC fish study group believes that much of the mysid biomass killed and moved also be changes in the relative abundance of species in the zooplankton offshore will be eaten by these same fish species in the region of the dif- assemblage in the inner nearshore zone. The ~gnitude and extent of these fusers. Some mysid material will, of course, fall uneaten to the ocean floor.

changes cannot be predicted, and will depend on mixing rates, the ability of There it will join food webs that lead in part to benthic fish. These food the populations to eo~pensate, and on interactions between species. As an webs are less efficient than the mysid ~ fodder fish chain, so we could expect indication of the likely scale of the effects, we expect them to be somewhat so~e overall loss of fodder fish production, although much less than 30 tons less extensive than the predicted mysid effects.

per year. we*do ~predict, therefore, that the mysid losses will have a 2. SONGS' intakes probably will kill on the order of 10 trillion of significant effect on sport and commercial fish production. the larger zooplankton per year, weighing about 1200 tons. Most of the zooplankton withdrawn at the intakes will enter the benthic food chain and will be lost as a direct food source for fodder fish. The fate of these diverted zooplankton is discussed in the Soft Bottom Community predictions.

We cannot yet estimate precisely the kill of plankton entrained by the SOFT BOTTOM COMMUNITIES diffuser plumes. If 10% of those entrained were to be killed by being moved offshore to unfavorable habitat, the annual kill would be on the order of Introduction 4000 tons. This transported plankton will be eaten largely by the same The soft benthos com=unity is made up largely of invertebrates (worms, species of fodder fish that would have eaten it inshore, before SONGS began clams, crustacea, etc.) that live in and on the sand, silt and mud bottom.

operation. We therefore do not expect to see significant changes in the These bottom types cover roughly 80% of the area in the general San Onofre overall abundance of fodder fish or sport and commercial fish as a conse- region. The distribution and abundance of these species is strongly influenced quence of this shift in biomass. by the physical characteristics of the sand, silt and mud and by the amount

3. About half of the tima, the diffuser discharges will bring to the of food material in the area. The communities close to shore (out to a depth surface, offshore, relatively nutrient-rich water from closer to the shore of about 10 meters) are less diverse and less abundant than those further end nearer the bottom. We estimate that this will result in the annual pro- offshore. Most of the species are planktonic in their early stages. Although duction of an extra 84,000 tons of phytoplankton in the mid or outer near- these communities are not as productive of fish, on a per area pasis, as are shore waters. The fate of this extra biomass is discussed in the Fish reefs and kelp beds, because they are so extensive they help to support large

'7'

!E! predictions. populations of fodder fish and hence of sport and commercial fish species.

Predictions

1. SONGS Units 1, 2 and 3 will alter the bottom sediments. Close to the diffusers (within 1 km) the sediments will be coarsened and enriched.

Beyond this area, in a pattern and at distances that ve cannot yet predict, the sediments will become aomevbat finer, and they will be enriched. The general result of these changes will be an increase in the abundance, number of species, and, probably, in annual production of biomass in the enriched region.

2. SONGS could have a negative influence on the soft benthos community by killing some of the organisms that live on the bottom but that occasionally ria, into the water column. (This group of organisms bears a broad similarity

to mysids.} It will also reduce the number of larvae of some species avail- HARD BOTTCM COMMIJNITIES able for settlement, by killing the early stages that float in the plankton.

Boulders and reefs near SONGS are covered by a variety of organisms This could affect the adult density of some species, especially those living in addition to kelp. These include smaller species of algae and sedentary in the intertidal and shallow water zones. Among this group, lobster is a animals that permanently attach to the rock surfaces. Apart from their aport and commercial species. However, too little is known about the popula-intrinsic value as part of the community, these organisms provide both a tion dynamics of the early stages to hazard a prediction about possible' source of food for fish and important habitat structure, and they may compete effect on adult densities. We suspect it will not have a significant effect for attachment surfaces with kelp.

on the overall production of the community.

There are distinct inshore (intake depth) and offshore (around SOK

3. The enrichment of the soft benthos is not expected to influence the depth) communities. Turbidity is higher inshore, and inshore species are production of sport and commercial fish.

more tolerant of this higher turbidity. They also grow more rapidly than offshore species. It is thus possible that increases in turbidity in the offshore portion of SOK will lead to a change in the community such that 1)1 inshore species will tend to replace the resident offshore species. Con-tJi ceivably these inshore species could also slow the recruitment of kelp by outcoapeting it for space.

While these possibilities exist, there is no strong evidence to suggest they will occur.

FISH CONTENTS Page A. The affected fish species 27 B. Mechanisms 28 C. Estimation of probable losses of fish 28 (1) Direct ld.ll of juvenUea and adults in intakes 28 (2) l.tilling of planktonic fish egga sad larvae in intakes 29 (3) Diffuser loaaes 33 RATIO!W.E (4) Losses from damasa*to kelp bed 34 D. Conversion of losses to biomass 34 E. Conversion of losses to annual production 35 T F. Conversion of fodder fish losses to sport and commercial losses 35

~

G. Compensation ud declines in nearshore fish species 36

8. On-shore off-shore water DIOV8IIIellts 38 I. Upwelling eauaed by SONGS 38

In this section on fish we do not give a separate rationale for each species made up over three-quarters of the 1975 sport and commercial catch prediction, since the same types of analyses underlie predictions 1 and 2.

of nearshore fish in the fish blocks near SONGS.

A. The affected fish species B. Mechanisms SONGS Units 1, 2 and 3 are most likely to have a significant effect There are six known or suspected mechanisms through which SONGS can upon fish species that live as adults mainly nearshore (within about 4 km of affect fish populations. These are:

shore), and that produce planktonic (drifting) eggs and larvae in the same (1) Killing juvenile and adult fish as they are taken into the intakes zone. Most species of fish in the SONGS area are of this type. However, most of the cooling system (via impingement and entrapment).

individuals, and most of the total tonnage of fish are Northern anchovies.

(2) Killing planktonic eggs and larvae that are taken into the intakes.

Anchovies also extend well offshore. There are several hundred billion (3) Killing planktonic eggs and larvae that are caught up (entrained) anchovies in the California Bight, they move enormous distances, and SONGS by water jetting out of the discharge or diffuser systems.

will not significantly affect the population of this abundant species, although (4) Loss of fish from special habitats (e.g. kelp).

the Plant will kill large numbers of anchovies. They are not considered in (5) Loss of fish food that is moved by the cooling system.

1(1 most of the analyses below (but see Section I), which concern nearshore (6) (Sub)lethal effects of discharged organochlorines.

t:::J species only. A numerically small group of nearshore species either carry We have no evidence that mechanisms (5) and (6) will operate to affect sport their young internally, or have planktonic larvae but lay attached, not and commercial fish production, and they will not be discussed further in free-floating, eggs. This group is also excluded from subsequent analyses.

this Report.

We will be concerned mainly with those nearshore fish species that C. Estimation of probable losses of fish produce both planktonic eggs and planktonic larvae. These species fall into (l) Direct kill of juveniles and adults in intakes one of two groups. (1) Forage or fodder fish. These species eat plankton, Unit 1 kills, on average, 16.7 tons of fish per year. The fish are small bottom-dwelling organisms, mysid shrimps, etc., and are themselves disposed of on land. Of these fish, 10.2 tons are fodder fish, 2.5 tons are food for sport and commercial species. The major species in this category electric rays (which are of scientific and economic importance), 2.4 tons are queenfish (Seriphus) and white croaker (Genyonemus).

are nearshore sport and commercial fish species 1 and 1.6 tons are other (2) Sport and commercial fish are the second group. Among nearshore species, halibut and white seabass are the main commercial species while kelp species.

• The intake structures of Units 2 and 3 have been modified to reduce bass and sand bass, and halibut, are the main sport species. These four the fraction of fish taken in by the intakes. In additionf a fish-return

system bas been devised to return those caught back to the ocean. This system (a) Tbe density of eggs and larvae of various ages, in vater at various bas not been tested. Tbe MRC fish study group feels that the fish-return depths and distances offshore, is estixnated from samples. (There is a tendency system is likely to kill or fatally injure most fish that pass through it.

If the new systems are SO% efficient, the total intake mortality will triple.

for older larvae to occur inshore and nearer the bottom, at diffuser and intake

• depths.) Next, the rata at vhicb SONGS will withdrav vater from each of these If they are completely inefficient, total intake mortality will increase about locations is estixnated (from a modal of SONGS hydrodynamic behavior). This 5-fold since all three structures provide about five times as much attractive gives the .!!!!!!!2!!I. of aggs and larvae that will be entrained. Finally, an assump-

"reef structure" as Unit 1. (The volume of -water taken in by all three units tion is made about: the fraction of entrained eggs and larvae that will be will be six times that taken in by Unit 1.) If the fish-return system is not killed. All of those passing through the intake are assumed to die. (Similar more than 50% efficient, the annual impingement fish kill will fall between calculations can be made for those caught up by the diffusers, but ve cannot 3 and 5 times that of Unit 1, or 50-84 tons, of vhich 7-12 tons will be near-yet estixnate the fraction of those taken up that will be killed.)

shore sport snd commercisl fillh. This is equivalent to 4-7 tons of nearshore These various estixnates allov calculation of the expected number of eggs sport end commercial fish production.

m and larvae that will be killed per unit time (say, each day) , immediately

~ The losses to Unit 1 already produce measurable effects on queenfish.

after the Plant is turned on (Fish Appendix 1).

Tbe population of this species within 1:! km of the intake (and perhaps as far We cannot assume this kill rate vill continue indefinitely. For example, as 2 km) has fewer young fish and fewer females than more distant populations.

some vater that bas been affected by the Plant may remain in or return to the Young and female fish are precisely tha groups taken in selectively by the vicinity and mtx with "new" vater that moves into the area. llhen this intakes. Two-thirds (by weight) of the fodder fish taken in are queenfish.

happens, the local density of eggs and larvu will be lover than elsewhere, Some 31-Sl tons of fodder fish will be impinged. These fish vould otherwise and fewer eggs and larvae will be killed per unit time.

have contributed 25-41 tons of fodder fish production (Table 1).

A detailed model of the current rqime in the SONGS area could be used (2) Killing of planktonic fish esss and larvae in intakes to estimate the rate of replenishment of vater in the area, and hence the local MOat nearshore species spend 2-4 months as planktonic eggs and larvae density of eggs and larvae exposed to SONGS. Such a model vas not available and throughout this stage can be caught up by the intakes or diffuser -water.

vhen the present calculations vere made.

This 1a the major source of mortality. It is estimated by a somevhat c0111plex (b) Instead, a model wu nsed that simply assumed that SONGS will dra'!'

procedure involving a model of fish mortality, and ws deact'ibe the methods eggs and larvae only from some specified region along the coast. Inside this only briefly. Tbsre are a nuaber of steps in this procedure.

region, all eggs and larvae are aasllllled to be equally vulnerable (good mixing

is assumed). No egg or larva outside the region can be killed by SONGS and SONGS kill. For example, under one set of assumptions, SONGS will kill in no eggs or larvae can leave the region. the model has the following a year 16 billion eggs and 4 billion larvae of nearshore fish.

features (Fish Appendix 1): Clearly the choice of the siJ:e of the "affected region" is somewhat arbi-Eggs are produced in this region at s constant annual rate that is trary. Choosing a very small region (say l b) is squivalent to assuming the same as elsewhere. (this is essentially the conservative assumption that, virtually no currents along the shore. and hardly any replenishment of the even if SONGS kills many plankters and subsequently lowers adult density in waters armmd SONGS by "new vater. this will overestimate the degree of the region, reproductive fish will move in from elsewhere.) local SUPpression, but will underestimate the nuabsr killed - larvae from else-The model calculates the chance that an egg or larva of a given age, where that in reality would get to SONGS are not counted. On the other hand, within the region, is killed by SONGS before it reaches the next age class choosing a very large rsgion (say several hundred kilometers long) is equiva-(which is 2.5 days older). this is done for all age classes up to the point lent to assuming that fish eggs and larvae move huge distances in their when the larva becomes a juvenile (4 months in queenfish, for example). lifetimas. This would maximize the number killed, but (especially since Since eggs and larvae die off extremely rapidly due to natural causes, most thorough mixing is asswned) it would spread the effect out very thinly. We

'j'1

~ of them are not killed by SONGS but die of natural causes. This natural death feel that this latter scenario is closer to the real situation. 50 km wss rate is taken into account by the model. chosen as a compromise between smaller regions within which complete mixing

'!he chance of any individual being killed by SONGS before it moves can bs asswned, and larger regioua within which all doomed fish larvae are out of its age class depends on the size of the region chosen (the chance is certain to have been produced. SONGS!!!!! kill billions of eggs and larvae, smaller when the region is bigger because within 2.5 days a smaller fraction and the degree of movement of eggs and larvae will determine whether there is of the water in the region passes through'SONGS). Clearly, if a very small a pronounced local depression or a less obvious, but much more extensive, region is chosen, a given individual can be exposed to risk on different depression. If there is no re-entrainment of "old" water by SONGS, a choice occasions since the same parcel of vater passes through SONGS many times. In of 50 km will underestimate the number of eggs and larvae killed.

this case, the density is rapidly depleted, the fraction killed is high, and The result of the model's calculations is a predicted number of eggs moat larvae do not grow very old. On the other hand, the nwnber killed is and larvae killed per year (breeding season) in each age class.

somewhat smaller. (c) These predicted losses of eggs and larvae are then converted into Since the natural mortality rate is high, there are slvays far fewer an equivalent number of 13 month old fish (Fish Appendix 1). (An age of 13 older larvae than younger larvae and eggs. This is reflected in the predicted

1110nths is chosen primarily because this corresponds in size to that of the stress was estimated from known larval densities and from the estimated amount aver&Se fodder fish eaten by aport and commercial fish.) the idea involved of water entrained. These calculationa suggest that only a relatively small in calculating 13 1110nth old equivalents 1a aa follOVII: an egg baa roughly 11UIIIber of larvae v1ll be killed in this way.

1 chance in a million, under natural eonditiOilB, of becoming a 13 month old (b) Translocation losses adult. Therefore, if SONGS kills an en, this is equivalent to killing only Nearshore fodder fish larvae show a very clear pattern, in which density one-tlillionth of a 13 IIIOll.th old fish, because in all likelihood the en wuld falls off very rapidly several kilometers from shore. The pattern suggests have died anyway. Bowaver, i f SONGS kills a 4 _month old larva it baa killed that larvae that are carried farther offshore die. During some parts of the the equivalent of .4 of a 13 111011th old adult, because a 4 111011th old larva year, SONGS' diffuser plUIIes are ezpected to move some inshore water to an under natural conditiona baa a 40% cbence of becoming a 13 month old adult.

area S Ita or more offshore.

It is predicted that SONGS will kill the equivalent of several million 13 month The larvae of sport end cCHEereial fish species extend from close to old adults of nearshore fish species.

shore to about 7 km offshore. We therefors do not expect SONGS to cause At the moment, age distributiona of larvae are available for only the translocation mortality in this group.

'T' two major fodder fish species. To estimate losses of sport and commercisl

~ At aome ti111118 of' the year, especially when they are older and more species ve have therefore assumed that, averaged over the season, the aport valuable", the larvae of both queenfish and white croakers do not extend beyond and commercial species have the same age distribution aa these two fodder fish 2 km from the shore. We therefore expect large translocation losses of fodder species. The estimates of aport and collll8rcial losses owing to larval 1110r-fish larvae, but we are not able to maka a quantitative prediction. Some tality therefore are based on this, ss yet untested, assumption.

idea of the possible magnitude of these losses can be gained by noting that (3) Diffuser losses if 10% of larvae entrained by the diffuser plumes ware to be killed, total (a) Turbulent shear losses fodder fish losses would roughly double.

There is evidence from the literature that fish larvae die when thsy (4) Losses from d!ll!!8e to kelp bed are subjected to shear forces on the order of several hundred dynes/em2 over Damage to the kelp bed and its biota may be anything from negligible a period of several minutes. Losses due to this mechanism ware estimated in to extreme <-ee ltelp Predictions).

two steps (Fish Appendix 1). Firat, the fraction of secondarily entrained 1). Conversion of losses to biomass {weight of standing stock of fish) water that is likely to be subjected to shear forces on the order of 100/cm2 ,

the losses of 13 month old "adult-equivalents" were divided between sport or greater, vas calculated. Second, the number of larvae subjected to this and commercial fish and fodder fish according to the frequencies of these two

types in the larvae affected. Among nearshore planktonic spawning species, effects on sport and commercial species of this predicted loss of fodder fish in general, four-fifths of the larvae are fodder fish and the remaining production. A stendard rule of thumb is to assume that 10 pounds of fodder one-fifth are sport and commercial fish. However, their relative frequencies fish production yields one pound of sport end commercial production - a 10%

vary with proximity to the shore and with position in the water column, and "transfer efficiency". Howevar, i f sport end colDIIU!rcial fish population are these differences were taken into account.

being held at relatively low densities, say by fiahing.(Section G), then changes Next, numbers lost were converted to a weight (biomass) for each group in food supply may have little or no effect on their production. In addition, (aport and commercial fish liva longer than fodder fish and are larger, so the fodder fish losses may be partly or largely compensated for (see next the conversions are different) (Fish Appendix 1). The idea here is that, section). These considerations suggest that 10% is too high a figure. We once SOHGS baa been operating for several years, 1, 2, 3,

• year old fish think it unlikely that aport and commercial fish production is totally unrelated are all affected and each year there will be an average loss of fish weight, to fodder fish production, and so assume a 1% relationship as a lower (and more spread over all ages, in each species.

likely) bound.

1(1 E. Conversion of losses to annual production G. Compensation and declines in nearshore fish species

~ l!ach year, each fish population produces a certain tonnage of "new" It is possible thet reductions in larval fish density caused by SONGS biomass, through reproduction and growth. In a perfectly balanced fishery, would lead to higher survival of the remaining fish larvae (for example, by esch year this same amount of tonnage would be consumed ~ by natural deaths making more food available to each larva). There is, at the moment, no good plus the fish harvest. The annual production of a typical sport and commer-evidence for such compensation in marine larval fish, and there are ~ priori cial population is reckoned to be about 60% of the standing stock (biomass).

reasons for suspecting such compensation would at best be weak. First, fish Thus, when the equivalent of 100 tons of sport and commercisl biomass is lost larvae are already very sparse. Second, it iB likely that "chance" (density as larvae and eggs, this is equivalent to a loss in production of 60 tons.

iodependent) factors dominate the mortality of these small organisms. Third, Similar calculations are possible for fodder fish, where the figure is thought much of their food will be killed along with the larvae themselves.

to be 80%.

Another possibility is that juvenile or adult fish might survive, grow, F. Conversion of fodder fish losses to sport and commercial losses or reproduce better in response to lowered density of juveniles. 'We think this Sport and commercial fish depend predominantly on fodder fish and, since is_ possible for fodder fish because there is no evidence that their numbers the biomass of the latter is expected to be reduced, there should be less food have been declining. However, we think it unlikely that compensation in for sport and commercial fish. It is difficult to know how to estimate the nearshore sport and co=mercial fish would be adequate in the face of-significant

a:tra mortality. The main reaaon for this view is that these species appear Third, the data .!!.!. for only the 1970a, often not for the whole decade, and to have decline<! in Southern California since the mid-60s (Fish Appendix 1).

the Fish and Game data ahov that the decline vas most precipitous in the The evidence for declines in nearshore aport and commercial fish species mid to late 60s and h88 baen rather alight in the 1970.. (The Fish and Game ill by no IIIUII8 tmequivocal. We have to rely on indirect measures of fish data are  !!!!!S!!. lese variable than the Power Plant data, especially in the atoci<a. The major evidence ia from California Department of Fish and Game 1970s.) Thus, va vould not evan necessarily expect to see a decline in these recorda of apoet and cOBiercial catches. These. sugsest strongly that halibut, Power Plant data.

in particular, baa decline<!, that kelp haas and sand bess may have decline<!,

On halance, va believe the data aupport the conclusion of a decline in and that the more desirable nearshore sport and couaercial species u a group desirable nearshore sport and commercial fish.

have decline<!.

H. On-shore off-shore water movementa Several araumenta can be made ap.inat these conclusions. Counter-The predictions bave not taken into account the possibility of larse evidance, tosether with COIIIIIIIIlta, is as follova:

scale onshore and offshore IIIOVements of vater. (MRC is now measuring this (1? Populations fluctuate naturally, and these species a~d strong rr pheno~~~~non.) Such 110V8mellts could create "circulation calla" that 110uld slow IS declines in the 1950s, followed by a recovery.

dovn the longshore mov8111111t of esse and larvae {although i t is possible that, Populations do fluctuate. But this ia not evidence that current declines by choosing vater layers, larvae could escape from such calls). This vould are "natural" and can be isnore<l. The declines in the 1950s, for u:aple, lllllY re<luce the satilllated loss of larvae, but vould create a more detectable local have bean cause<! by loss of kelp be4 habitat, and DDT in the Bight, and these depression in larval density around SONGS.

tole 11111chania11Ul are nov diminiahe<l.

I. UpvellinJ! cause<! by SONGS (2) Catches of fish in ~r planta do not show clear evidence of Some of the vater entrained by SONGS' diffusers will come from below declines.

7 111 depth. Water at tbia depth in the resion of the diffusers ill rich in

• Bovaver, the data from illlp~t by ~ plants suffer several de-nutrients, but bas low light levels, so that it produces little phytoplankton.

fects. Fint, such data are hiably influenced by cetcbability of fish (which The diffuser plume vill senarally move this (and other inshore water) closer ia influence<! by annual variations in the weather), as well as by their density.

to the surface, where there is more light, and farther offshore. This will They usually are available for only a few years in the 1970s, and such varia-result in an absolute increase in phytoplankton production in this region.

tiona in catchability could easily ooacure reel trends. Second, the data are We estilliate (Fish Appandix 2) that, eech year, some 84,000 tons of e:.rtrllllllely variable. and this could obscure trends oftr this abort period.

additional phytoplankton will he produced. Most of tbia will he eaten by

zooplankton. Although it is not possible to say exactly how this production As discussed in Section F, the transfer efficiency from fodder fish to will pass up the food chsin, a reasonable estimate is that half of the phyto-sport and commercial fish probably lies somewhere between 1% and 10%, and we plankton will be eaten by microzooplankton, then by macrozooplankton, end then have argued it is likely to be close to 1%. If the increase in anchovy fodder fish. The other half of the phytoplankton will be eaten by macrozoo-production ~ to be passed on, we would expect it to produce an extra 5-46 plankton, and then by fodder fish. In this region (roughly ~ km offshore) tons of sport and commercial fish, and believe the lower figure much more the major fodder fish is the anchovy, and most of the new production should pass likely. Most o£ this production would !!!!.!:, be in nearshore sport and commercial to this species. A transfer efficiency of lO% would produce, in tons of fodder fiah, since the masa of the anchovy population is offshore.

fish:

[4.2 X 104 X 10-2] + (4.2 X 104 X !0-3) = 460 tons.

During these transitions the new production (as phytoplankton and zoo-plankton) will be moved away from the area of production and thoroughly mixed.

The anchovy population is also extremely mobile and well mixed, so this produc-rr'

~ tion of anchovies would he expected to be spread over a very large fraction of the Bight population.

460 tons is a miniscule fraction of yearly California anchovy production, which is about 1-2 million tons. We believe it would not result in any real increase in yield to sport and commercial fish. It should be remembered that we have made a similar argument for ignoring anchovy losses: each yflllr, SONGS will kill on the order of lO timaa as many anchovy larvae as other fodder fish larvae, and the fodder fish losses themselves are equivalent to more than 300 tons of production, but" predict no effect from these losses. Clearly, in "production equivalents", tbe anchovy losses are much greater thsn 300 tons, but we believe it is sana1ble to assume that perturbations of this order, spread over the whole anchovy population, will have no effect on adult anchovy standing stock. and hence prodnct:lon.

KELP CONTENTS I. Biology of Kelp Page We begin by looking at the basic population dynaaics of the San Onofre I. Biology of Kelp 42 kelp bed.

(A) Normal" conditions 42 (A) Normal" conditions (1) Reproduction, and recruitment of juvenile plants 43 It appears that, even in the absence of catastrophic events, the kelp (2) Survival froa juvenile to adult stage 46 bed is rarely in a "steady-state" or equilibrium condition. It is instead (3) Sumi:llary of "noraal" kelp population dynaaics 47 dominated by physical and oceanographic conditions that are highly variable.

(B) Catastrophes 47 In the present study (1976 to 1980), only by the end of 1979 did SOK cover II. Estiaating the Effects of SONGS Units 2 and 3 49 most of the cobble substrate available. Naturally,the amount of kelp (number (A) Predicted effects on kelp reproduction 49 of plants and areal extent) on any section of the bed fluctuates in response (B) Predicted effects on kelp growth and survival 52 to changes in bottom conditions, storms that tear adult plants from their

,., (C) Other factors associated with SONGS 55 sites of attachment, water temperature, availability of light and nutrients, rb

~ (1) Sediaentation grazing by sea urchins and probably fish, fouling, and periodic recruitaent.

55 (2) Sea urchins 55 Patches of kelp within the bed increase and decrease and even disappear and (3) Toxins 55 reappear under normal conditions.

(4) Teaperature 56 Recruitaent of new plants is a major dynamic event that is episodic, (5) Nutrients 56 in response to seasonal and annual variation in physical and chemical condi-(D) Overall. effects on the kelp bed 56 tions. lt appears that recruitment occurs, on average, only once every three (E) Effects on shrimp in the kelp canopy 56 years. (Hovever, recruitment rate has been examined, in this and other studies, for a total of only 12 years or so.) Although kelp has a complex life cycle (Figure l),.for present purposes there are only two important pro-cesses affecting recruitaent of adults: (i) the ability of the tiny male and female stages (gametophytes) to reproduce and hence produce the microscopic first stage of the actual kelp plant (sporophyte); (ii) the ability of juvenile plants to grow up into adult kelp plants. Experiments have shown that light

is an essential factor (but not the only factor) controlling theae two more than 10 Cl!l (.4 inches), At about 40 Cl!l (.16 inches) the plant becomes a processes. juvenile (Figure 1). Once again, a variety of factors ld.ll most of the sporo-We need to look briefly at the dynamics of the life cycle. phyte& before they become juvenile plants.

(1) Reproduction, and recruitment of juvenile plsnts It appears that the physical environment affects theae processes in The adult plants produce minute propagulea (zoospores) that settle on the follovins way. Reproduction by gametophytes requires adequate light and, the bottom and become either tiny aale or female stages called gametophytea. probably, a hiSh concentration of nutriants in the bottom water. When these Each adult plant producss extremely larae numbers of these propagulea, perhaps conditione prevail, the gametophytes abaorb sunlight and nutrients each day, continually throughout the year. rhus it ia probable that there are gamato- until they uture to a reproductive condition. Field experiments show that phytes present, moat of the time, in abundance, on suitable areas of the very fev sporophytes ever Appear froa gametopb1tea planted out 1110re than 40 bottom close to adult plants. the critical factor is the occurrence of a days. rhus, in the field, 40 days apparently is tbe max::IJmDu period during combination of suitable physical conditions (including, at least, adequate which this stage can accumulate the aunlisht needed for survival and reproduc-light and nutrients) that allow gametophytes to reproduce. The gametophytes tion. OVer this .period they need an average of at least .43 Einstein& per m2 rp that do reproduce, produce microscopically small kelp plants. This type of

~ per day (Kelp Appendix 2, p. 5). (Onder good field conditions it is likely life cycle is known as alternation of generations. In kelp the microscopic that the average successful gamatophyte manages to accumulate enough light gametophytes are the sexual stage. The sporophyte (the actual kelp plant) in about 20 days.) The critical question for sporophyte recruitment, in any is the asexual stage. It is also microscopically small to begin with, but given year, is therefore: during the period in which gametophytea are present, passes through juvenile and subadult stages to become the massive adult kelp what is the probability (.a) that enough light can be accumulated during at plAilt. least one 4Q-day period (called a "light window"), and (b) that nutriEmts sre Gametophytes are killed by a variety of factors - abrasion, burial by also adequate during the light window?

sediments, and grazing by anilllels - and only a small fraction of them survive It Appears that these two conditions co-occur only rarely. (a) The to produce sporophyte& (Kelp Appendix 1, p. 150). Even so, after a success- frequency of light windova varies with the situation. ln a very sparse part ful reproductive "set", there are thousands of tiny sporophytes per square of the kelp bed, where adults were absent and vegetation had been cleared, all meter of cobble substrata. Unfortunately, it is extramely difficult to study of the spring season conAisted of light windows (Kelp Appendix 3, Table 1, these microscopically small plants in natural conditions. Quantitative p. 5). However, in darker portions of the bed, where adults are present in studies have been done only on larger plants that have reached a height of abundance, none of the 40-day periods appeared to have received adequate light

on the bottom. With a light understory of other algae, and heavy adult (b) With respect to light levels, reproduction is all-or-nothing.

canopy, about 30% of 40-day periods were light windows on the bottom.

When adequate light is available, the number of tiny new plants (sporophytes)

(b) It appears likely that nutrients are adequate only during periods produced is independent of the light level. The number produced appears, of upwelling. In any given spring these periods last for only a few days, instead, to be associated vith the amount of nitrogen in the bottom waters, and occur not more than a few times per season (Kelp Appendix 1, Figure El, and this is not expected to be affected by SONGS.

p. 260).

The survival of sporophytes to the juvenile stage is determined by a Suitable conditions for reproduction occur mainly in the spring, range of factors (abrasion, sedimentation, gra:ing).

although occasionally also in the fall. It appears that adequate conditions (2) Survival from juvenile to adult stage for reproduction occur, on average, only once every three years {Kelp Appen-Juveniles frequently suffer a higher death rate than adults (Kelp dix 2). At. any one time the bed is thus generally dominated by s "cohort:"

Appendix 1, pp. 93 and 95), so anything that prolongs the juvenile stage vill of adult plants from a single episode of reproduction.

reduce both the eventual number of adults and the average density of kelp As discussed below, SONGS is predicted to decrease the frequency at plants. Light affects the growth rate, and so does fouling. These factors which conditions become suitable for reproduction. We cannot predict whether rr are discussed later.

~ or not SONGS vill affect the .!!l:!!!!!l!!. of sporophytes or juvenile plants that The growth rate of juvenile kelp plants is highly variable. Some plants arise from any given successful reproductive set. It is likely, however, in a group develop from juvenile to adult in less than three months, while that some factors will not have much effect on the number produced:

others take more than 13 :months. The survivorship from juvenile to adult (a) Each adult plant produces enormous numbers of gsmetophytes. Thus, stage is also highly variable, and depends on, among other factors, both the unless the density of adult plants is catastrophically reduced, we assume initial number of juveniles and the number of adults present. The fraction that there will be enough gametophytes present to replenish the bed even When surviving tends to be higher when (a) fever juveniles are present initially adult density is low. (This is equivalent to assuming there is density (ltalp .Append:l.:lt 1, p. 82), and (&) fewer adults are present (Kelp Appendix 1, "compensation" in the survival of these Sllllll stages.) There must be some

p. 84, and ltelp Appendix 2, p. 10). These relationships reflect an important very low density of adult plants at which replanisbllent through a single result: except when very low densities of juveniles are present, the final reproductive set is not possible, but ve lllllka the conservative assumption number of adults present 18 roughly constant. (This means there is strong that it is very low, lovar than is encountered during normal" conditions.

"compensation" or "densiry-dependence". U some factor reduces juvenile density, the nllllber of adults produced may be relatively unaffected.)

(3) SUIIIIllary of "normal" kelp population dynamics observations made before 1950.

A final piece of information completes the picture of "normal" kelp Two catastrophic die-offs have occurred since 1956 {Kelp Appendix 1, bed population drnamics, namely that the average adult plant survives for

p. 12). The first, in 1958-59, was associated with high summer temperatures about 12 months (Kelp Appendix 2, p. 11). That is, if we start out at some (hut may have been caused by associated low levels of nutrients). At this point in time with a cohort of adults produced by a successful reproductive time 90% of Southern California kelp beds were destroyed. SOK was not re-

"set" a year or more earlier, we can expect roughly half to die within 12 established for a period of 12 years (by 1972). In 1976, again a year of months. By the end of two years roughly 25% of these adults will remain alive, unusually high temperatures, SOK suffered a partial die-off, being reduced to and by the end of three years, roughly 12~% will remain alive. At this time, less than 10% of its former extent, and only in the offshore segment did plants

.!1.!!. average, we could expect another cohort of adults to appear. In reality, remain. Recruitment occurred about a year later, and recovery of the canopy of course, the dynamics would not follow this average pattern, but would vary took almost two more years.

around it. For example, deaths occur mainly in winter storms, which vary in There are two means by which kelp disperses and, hence, beds recover their severity from year to year; again, reproductive sets will sometimes be or become re-established. First, the adult plant casts its mictoscopic off-spaced one or two years apart, and sometimes four or five years apart.

'T spring varying distances. Many offspring probably fall very close (a few

!::::1 The ~of kelp plants in the bed thus fluctuates, rising rapidly meters) to the plant. (Observations at SOK show that some offspring may be after a successful recruitment event, and declining thereafter. However, the dispersed one or two hundred meters from the bed, but we do not know if these canopy area of the bed will not clearly follow this pattern since the surviving were offspring from plants attached in the bed, or from plants that became plants will continue to grow. The canopy area csn thus increase even though detached and drifted from the bed.) Secondly, adult plants, torn loose in the number of plants may be decreasing.

storms, drift and sometimes cast spores on suitable substrate far from their (B) Catastrophes point of origin. Re-establishment of a bed therefore depends on chance events, We know little about the frequency of catastrophes in the SONGS area and seems more likely when a source of "colonists" is close by. This is one before the 1950s. Certainly the kelp beds in the general area were more exten-reason why the longshore continuity of beds is important. Recovery of a kelp sive and continuous when they were observed at various times earlier in the bed that has been drastically reduced, but not exterminated, depends mainly century than they have been since (Kelp Appendix 1, p. 12). It is likely that on local reproduction. Observations at SOK, in the very successful reproduc-much of the cobble in this area has been covered by sediments since then. We tive season of 1978, suggest that a la:rge "set" of new plants can arise from do not know, however, if the beds were severely reduced between the infrequent quite a sparse kelp bed, and that recovery can be rapid if the catastrophic

-so-die-off is followed quickly by successful recruitment. By cont'l'ast, the 1958 by fr0111 2S% to SS%, with a 'l'Oughl.y 40% J:eduction be:lng 11!08t likely. No 8illt1i-catastrophe suggests that IIUljor catastrophes can be"folloved by very long ticant reduction in light is expected :In the elnady turbid :Inshore segment.

recove'l'Y periods because no o'l' ezt'l'~Y few plants survive locally.

The offsbo'l'e half of the bed bas been the moat persistent du'l'ing cstast'l'ophe, II. Eat:li!Ult:lng the Effects of SOHGS Unite 2 and 3 has the densest canopy cc.mar, and constitutes 70% of the total SOK canopy (A} Predicted effects on kelp reproduction cover. Subsudace light will ba much leas affected :In late * - r .

The two major factors affecting reproduction are light and nutrients. A 40% reduction :lt1 subsurface light will reduce the number of 40-day Increased turbidity caused by SOHGS' discharge will reduce the light in SOK light wiudove, and hence the probabUity of recruitment. The emount of reduc-during spring, the ma:ln reproductive season. The probable effects on repro- tion depends on the prevail:lng light regime. In a clasr part of the bed, duction vera estt=&ted by first calculating the expected reduction in light end, were ell 4G-day periods are suitable, a 40% reduction in light would cut the second, by calculating bow this should effect reproduction. SOHGS is not number of light windows by 2o-30%. At other parts of the bed, IIbera light expected to alter nuerients on the bot tOll, wltere reproduction occurs. windows are already scarce, the reduction could be close to 100%. We will use The probable levels of light that will preva:ll in the kelp bed ones Units a 20% J:eduction as a conservative estimate, aince the moat critical recru1t-

~*

2 and 3 are oparating were calculated in four steps (Kelp AppendiX 1, pp. 222- 1Ullt events occur vben the bed is sparse and therefore ambient light levels 241, and Turbidity Append!%). Firat, 8111bient light lavale near the bottom will be high.

vera recorded. Second, a computer s:lmulatiott model of water movements near To eat:llllate the potential effect of this reduction in underwate-r SONGS, including those caused by SOHGS' intake end diffuser systems, vas illUIIl:lnetion on reproduction, a modal of reproduction is useful. A crude developed. Thie vu basad on information obtained from current meters placed modal, assuming that only !!!!!. coincidence of adequate light and nutrients is in the ocean near SOIIGS, and from a physical model of SOIIGS-induced water needed to provide succauful recruitment in a season, is as follows. In a mov-nta produced for Southam Califomis Edison. Third, measurements of season of D days, there is, each day, probability v that the day is the first natural turbidity levels were lllade in spring end sllllm8r. This inforJIII!.tion of a light window, p'l'Obab:llity n that nutrients are adequate, and probability allowed prediction of expected levels of turbidity in the kelp bed for these 3 that there is an adequate supply of gametophytas. The probab:llity that a two seasons. F:lnally, 118&8UH11811ts of light and turbidity levels in the field stven day will initiate successful recruitment is then vgn. If 4o-day periods yielded a at'l'ODS quantitative relationship between light and turbidity. The can be treated independently, then the probab:llity that at least one day in calculations predict (conservatively) that in eprins, in the 6-ost important) the season will initiate recruitment ia 1-(l-wgn)D (Eelp AppendiX 4).

offshore half of the bed, subsurface light levels on avarase will be reduced

-S2-This model can be used to estimate how a reduction in the number of Overall, therefore, it is reasonable to predict a 20% reduction in the light windows will affect recruitment. Suppose we reduce the number of light probability of successful recruitment, and therefore a 25% increase in the windows to a fraction (p) of their original number (in the case of a 20%

average time between recruitment events.

reduction, p * .8). The probability a given day will begin a light window (B) Predicted effects on kelp growth and survival then becomes pw, and our model ia 1-(1-pwgn) 0

• We assume that only when SOK Light and fouling of kelp plants are the major factors that are expected is destroyed is g < I, so except when the bed is absent, the model becomes to affect kelp growth. We discussed expected changes in light, above. Here 1- (1-pwn) D.

we first describe fou11og and then discuss the relationships among light, If wgn, or wn, is small, (1-pwgn) 0 ~ 1-Dpwgn, and the reduction in the fouling, and growth and survival of kelp.

probability of successful recruitment will be by a factor close to p. Other-Fouling: Several species of small invertebrates settle and attach to wise the reduction will be less than p. There are three cases: normal SOK kelp plants. Some build tubes from particles in the water, others merely live population dynamics, SOK absent (when it is destroyed), and SOK reduced (when on .the kelp blades. Under normal conditions in SOK, fouling of juvenile kelp it is at very low densities).

plants is rather light, although the fouling organisms are present.

rr~ In normal times there is very little light in the bed and w is small.

Several experimental studies show that the abundance of these fouling Furthermore, those partially shaded areas that do provide some windows suffer organisms on kelp plants and other surfaces is greater the closer they are to a greater than 20% reduction in windows. Thus a 20% reduction seems to be a the discharge plume of Unit 1. This increase is caused by (probably several) conservative estimate. Note, with p * .8, the average time between recruitment factors associated with the plume, including increased particles in the water, events increases by s factor of 1/p

• 1.25. That is, the average time between and increased turbulence which stimulates the planktonic stages of some recruitment events would be expected to increase from about three years to organisms to settle. lt is also associated with lower light levels, but is almost four years.

probably not caused directly by reduced light.

In the absent phase, g is very small, since recruitment depends on the There is evidence (Kelp Appendices 2 and 5) that increased fouling can rare event of a drifting kelp plant dropping spores on suitable substrate.

reduce the growth of kelp plants, and damages them by causing them to lose Thus a 25% increase in the time to recruitment is a reasonable estimate. Even blades, causing fronds to sink, and attracting fish and other predators.

in the reduced phase, when w is intermediate and g = 1, n is likely to be very The relationships between light, fouling and growth were examined in small and the time between recruitment events should increase by 25%.

an experiment in which juvenile kelp plants were transplanted to the Unit 1 plume and to other areas in which underwater light levels varied {Kelp'Appen-

diz 1, pp. 101-121; ltelp Appondbt 2, Table 11; Kelp Appendix 3, p. 6). A mul- kelp aroww faster in SOK tban it does inshore.

tiple f8&resai0tl of arowth rate (A log lqth in c:JtJ/day), versus irrsdiance (3) There is one pair of observations in SOK that shove kelp growiDB (Khal/d) and percet cover by Meabranipora (a bryozoan that is a major fouling at ai1111lar rates at different light levels (Annual Report, p. 110, Tabla 4.2).

organism), explsinsd 99% of the variance in &rOifth in the experi11111t!tal juveUe (4} Fouling appears to be increesed by an increasing cODcentration of plants at four locations at different distances from the SONGS Unit 1 dis- particles in the water, and by turbulece. We do not know the quantitative charge. relationshipa inVOlved, and we do not have a precise prediction for these two This uperimant suggests vary strongly that decreases in light and variables under SONGS' operatiOD. Furthermore, the organillliiS uy 1) behave increases in fouling vill have a detrilllantal effect on lr.alp growth. tJnfor- differently, 2) be a different 1llix of species, and 3) differ in abundance at tunately, the relationships 81110118 the thrse factors (liaht, fouliDB end &rowth) SOK and inshore. Thus, we cannot predict the extent of fouling at SOK once are complex, and thia complexity prevets us from aalr.:lna a cOtlfident quanti- SONGS Unite 2 and 3 basin operation.

tativa prediction. The uncertainty arises because (1) the effects of light Ezpenments now underway should help resolve the relationship between and fouling on arowth are confounded, (2) the relstiODship between growth and light and arowt:h.

light is different inshore and at SOK, (3) arowth and light do not always In spite of difficulties of interpretation, however, the transplant

'T' show a consistent relationship, and (4) we cannot predict quantitatively how experimant predicts that lr.alp arowt:h will be reduced when SONGS 2 and 3 are

~

fouling will thqe at S01t. operating. Reduced growth would be expected to (a) reduce the average size (1) tower light vas always associated with greater foulina in this of plants, and so reduce kelp biOIII&Sa and cover, and (b) reduce tlia number of experi11111t!t, and so va cannot tall how 11111ch of the reduction in arowth was caused lr.alp planta. We next explore quaatiOtl (b).

by aath of these factors. Fouling alone explained 95.3% of the variance in Reduced arowth should reduce plant density because death rates of arowth, and light explained* 99.5% of the rlllll4ining variance, a aignificant jUVIItlile and sub-adult stages are generally higher than those for adults, and fraction, so we know light has!.!!!!. affect. Light alone explainS 99.7% of plants would spand loDBer in the high death rate phases. Accord!DB to one set the variance in growth, and fouliDB upla:lna 93.1% of the r~ variance of celculations, this -uld lead to a 70% reductiO!! in the number of plants

(;,mich is not a atatiatic:ally significat fraction). We have, so far, bean produced from a cohort of new juvanilaa (ltalp Appedix 2, pp. 13-17). If unable to aaperata the affects of thaaa two factors upon growth. compensation operation, the reduction could be aa 8111all as 25%.

(2) The relation batwaan kelp arowt:h and light in SOK is different We cannot place IIUCh reliance on thaaa particular figures because dif-from the experimental ralstionehip established inahora. At a given light laval ferent seta of plausible asauaptiona and relatiOtlehipa give us different

-ss- estimates that range from a negligible effect to an even greater than 70% small qu.antitiu of toXin(s) - perhaps copper or chlorine. Southern California reduction in abundance (Kelp Appendix 5). Furthermore, we still have the Edison claima that Unit 1 releases axtramely small amounts of copper, that problems of the confounding effects of fouling, and one pair of observations copper will be virtually absent from the plumes of Units Z and 3, and that of similar growth at different light levels in SOK. these units will also use little chlorine.

No firm qu.antitative prediction can be made about growth and survivor- There are no usable data on toxins from SONGS, and we cannot evalueta ship. their possible rola. This point requires investigation.

(C) Other factors associated with SONGS (4) Temperature (1) Sedimentatiou SONGS ia expected to have very little effect on water temperatures Sedimentation appears to reduce the recruitmeot of new plants by in SOK (a less than 0.5°C average increase, a 1lllllt1muln of a 1 °C increase, and smothering them and increasing abrasion. However, SONGS is expected to have a non-detectable increase over moat of the bed)

• no effect on the sedimentation rate on the bottom at SOK. (5) Nutrients r:n (2) Sea urchins The concentration of nutrients is expected to increase in SOK in

~ Sea urchius (Lytechinus) have caused a large amount (about 45%) of surface and mid waters at soma periods of the year. We have no quantitative adult mortality in parts of the bed. They also appear to intarfere with re- prediction of this effect, nor do we know the relationship between nutrient cruitment by grazing on the microscopic and very small stages of kelp. levels and adult plant growth. This mechanism could lead to greater plant SONGS will probably increase the amount of particulate organic matter growth (Plankton Appendix 2) *

(POC) at SOB:. Schroeter et al. (Kelp Appeudix 5) show that urchins grow more (D) 0'/uall effacts on the Wp bed 1n.abore than offshore, and argue that this was caused by highar POC levels The predicted reduction of recruitment, and an increase in mortality, there. They conjecture that SONGS will tberefora increase urchin populations, would lead to a reducad dansity of kalp plants in the offshore portion of the and hence grazing prassure, in SOB:. This seems a reasonable prediction, but bad. The48 twn effects plus reduced growth of individual plants and greater we cannot be certain it will occur because other factors (predation, etc.) grazing by urcbina would raduce the &IIIOunt (l>iomass and cover) of kelp in the also effect tba abundance of sea urchina. bed. Increased midvater nutrients could cause an increase in kelp growth.

(3) Toxins We cannot malta a quantitativa eatimste of tha ovarall effects.

lteduced growth and settlement of various organisms in the Unit 1 {!) Effect* on shrimp in the kelp canopy diecharge plume have led investigators to postulate that tha plume contains l!%periments carriad out at various dist.ancu from Unit 1 discharge

-sa-showed that shrimp densities on settling plates vera lower close to the dis-

~

charge. These spatial differences tended to disappear when SONGS vas not

1. Annual loss of mysida operating. It vas elao show that the death rate of shrimp in experimental From the field s8111Pling program we lcnov hov mysid densities change as containers vas greater closer to the Plant.

one goes offshore. Several species, constituting most of the mysid popula-The miocheniSlll causing these effects is not known, so no quantitative tion, are restricted to within 3 or 4 1cm of the shore (Mysid Appendix 1).

predictions of the effects of Units 2 and 3 can be made.

Maximum mysid density occurs in the intalce zone.

Shrimp are important in the diets of various fish species that live in These data, plus information on the rate of SONGS' intake of water, SOl: (ltelp Appendi::l: 5, PP* 12-13)

• allow us to calculate how 111any mysids will be taken into SONGS' intakes.

Sampling at Unit l, and labo.ratory studies, suggest that all myaida taken into the cooling system will be killed.

We are much less certain. of the number that vill be killed by the dis-lj'1 charge plume, which vill entrain about 10 times ita own volume of water.

~ There are two possible sources of mortality. Firat, *some mysida will die from turbulent shear forces created by the discharging water. We believe this will be a relatively minor source of mortality. Second, some mysids vill be carried further offahore in the plume and deposited offshore of their nor1IIBl habitat.

There is as yet no reliable method for predicting the number of mysids dying in this way.

2. My&id depreaaion (a) Depression caused by intake and diffuser mortality tf mysid mortality 1a of the order calculated in Section 1, we would expect there to be a lowering of mysid density downstream from the Plant.

The extent and depth of the depression depends upon the rate of mixing with water that has not passed through the Plant, and on the ability of surviving myaids to compensate with increased reproduction, growth or survival.

The probable extent of the depression was estimated using a model that There is statistical support for this claim, but there is a difficulty in combines a description of water movements and the biology of the mysids that the Plant on" samples \1ere taken in October, while the "Plant off" (Mysid Appendix 4). The model describes both the ambient current regime and samples were taken in spring, and the general level of mysid abundance was SONGS' plume, and moves mysids about accordingly. It incorporates the natural greatly different at these two seasons. Samples are being taken now, while mortality rate of mysids (as determined from samples) and imposes on this rate the Plant is off, to resolve this issue.

the expected SONGS-induced mortality. The model incorporates 100% intake The Committee feels there is a further problem with these results.

mortality and 20% mortality in the plume. (The model assumed that this was Even if it can be shown statistically that a depTession occurs when the Plant caused by turbulent shear. It is more likely that any diffuser losses will is on, but not when it is off, we know of no mechani~m that is likely to pro-be caused by translocation; however, we use the output as an indication of the duce such an effect. (The actual kill via intake and plume mortality would scale of possible effects.) not depress the population for such a distance, and the plume from Unit 1 rarely The model predicts that, for much of the year, depressions on the order extends more than 3 lr.m from the Plant.) One suggested mechanism is that organo-of 50% should exist out to 5 lr.m or more from the Plant, and that lesser depres- chlorine compounds from the Plant adhere to very small particles and settle Fj'"1 e:l sions should extend for more than 10 kn!. out over a distance of 6 lr.m. We have no evidence concerning this mechanism.

We need to view these predictions with caution. The model is not a If the new studies confirm the existence of this depression, further work will precise description of reality; in particular, it becomes less accurate as it be required on this question.

predicts events more distant from the Plane. Also, the amount of translocation If indeed there is a depression to 6 km caused by Unit 1, then it may mortality is not known. llhat the model does tell us is that we can expect to be reasonable to expect that the enormous additional kill rate of Units 2 and see a measurable depression in mysid density, at least several lr.m long, for 3 will extend the depression to 10 km or so. Notice, however, that there is much of the year, and it probably indicates the maximum size of the depression no evidence thst the plume from Units 2 and 3 will extend further downcoast that could be caused by these mechanisms. than thst from Unit 1. thus there is no certainty that the additional intake (b) Depression caused by an unknown factor and plume losses from Units 2 snd 3 \10uld extend an already existing depression.

The Mysid Study group has data suggesting that Unit l presently causes 3. Significance of myaid losses s depression in mysid density of almost 50% that extends 6 km downstream Mysid populations are extensive along the coast, and our predictions do (Myaid Appendix 3). This is the difference observed in the longshore pattern not imply that SONGS 'WOuld have a significant effect on the coastal populations.

of abundance between samples taken when the Plant is on, and when it is off. As stated in the Predictions", we do not expect these effects to have a major

impact on. the local popul.atioM of fodde-.: fish, although this ill eutaio.ly

~

a prediction that ve need to chad: when Units 2 and 3 begin operating.

1. The evidence that soma zooplanktoo.ic species are restricted close to shore can be found in Plankton Appendix 1. The centers of abundance of the inner nearshore species are in the areas of the intake and diffusers, and these species are therefore subject to grestel: SONGS pressures than other less restricted species. Some of the zooplankton. restricted to the inner nearshore tend to live closer to the bottom where the longshore cur-cents are slower (MaC Interim Report 1979..02 (II). p. 17), and as a eonaequence their longshore replacement (mixing) rates could be lower than those for other species. In addition, some of the non-rest-.:icted species could be replaced by individuals from farther offshore. All of this would favor the non-rastrictad.epecias in the recovery from SONGS losses and would tend to promote a shift in relative rr abundenee.

~

2. Synoptic samples taken in the intake and discharge ports of SONGS Unit 1 diiiiiOIIetrata that few of the withdrawn :ooplenkton oecur in the dis-eharged vaters (MaC Intarilll Report 1979, and Plankton Appsndix 2). Presumably, they are constmed during their journey through the intake conduit by the bantldc organi111111 that live on the inner walls. 'tbeee benthic organi81118 are pursed fro~~~ the cooling system during heat treatvllmt and revarn flow, and become part of the inshore bantbic food chain. the eetilllatee of plankton deneitiea uaed in predictins intake loasee can he found in Plankton Appendix 2.

The eetimate of zooplankton entrainment by diffusere is based on total macrozooplankton (zooplankton sreater than .2 - in width) plus the lllicro-zooplanktO'llic spseiea Euterpins acutifrons. l!uteriins was included because

it forms a major part of the diets of most fish larvae and some fodder fish waters they are taken up rapidly. Conversely, the presence of deeper waters in the area. Using the field samples from 20 dates for macrozooplankton and high in nutrients and low in chlorophyll presumably indicates thst the phyto-from 5 dates for Euterpina, the mean concentraeions we~e calculated for dif-plankton there are utilizing nutrients st a lower rate (Plankton Appendix 3).

ferent positions expected to be affected by diffuser entrainment (Plankton Therefore the nutrients in the bottom vaters upwelled by the diffusers will be Appendix 2). This estimate of about 4 x 104 metric tons of :ooplankton entrained utilized at a far higher rate when they reach the surface.

per year was based on the assumption that equal entrainment occurred at all Second, the waters replacing the entrained waters will also be high in depths over the full length of the diffusers. The assumption that 10% of nutrients and low in productivity. During periods of moderate to strong long-those entrained are killed results in an estimate of 4000 metric tons.

shore currents, entrained water will be replaced primarily from longshore and Moat of the zooplankton biomass moved offshore by diffuser entrainment similar depths. Under very sluggish conditions most of the entrained waters is likely to be eaten by adult and juvenile anchovies, top smelt, and black-will come from offshore. In both cases, the water will be rich in nutrients smiths. According to the HRC Fish Group, the blacksmith should inc~ease in (Plankton Appendix 3).

abundance because the diffuser ~ip-rap provides new habitat and the diffuser plume provides a continual source of zooplankton. In the absence of SONGS

'I'

~ these secondarily entrained. zooplankton would have been available to the sa.a predators and to the late larval stages of the fodder fish Genyonemus and Seriphus.

3. The diffuser discharges will result in replacement of part of the offshore surface water by a plume consisting of a mixture of nutrient-rich waters from closer to shore and nearer the bottom. The detailed methods used in estimating the amount of nitrate plus nitrite added to the surface waters, and the conversion of these estimates to estimated phytoplankton production, are explained in Plankton Appendix 3.

SONGS will induce a real net increase over present primary production off San Onofre. First, in surface and mid waters where chlorophyll is high, nutrients are low, suggesting that when nutrients get into the high chlorophyll

-* --**---*---~~~=-

son BOTT(J{ CXIl!IDNiriES densities will not be significantly reduced, and that any reduction of a The basie for the predictions can be found in Soft Bottom Co.-unities particular species will be lllllde up by increased denaity of others.

Appendices 1 and 2; 3. Thl! enrichment of bottom aedimetits should have virtually no effect

1. Probable aedimetit effects were estimated by establishing the exist- on the production of sport and c011111ereial fieh. Thl! enr:lchlllent. derives from ing statistical relationships among abundance, diversity and characteristics SONGS' killing of organisms in the water column, and so represents a shift of of the sediments. Probable changes in the sediments vera estimated (very materiel. The fo.od chains on the soft bottom eventually lead to the 4aliiQ approximately) from informati~ about the weights of various materials in the group of sport and commercial fish species as do planktonic food chains; SONGS' plumes, from information about water movements, and from information however, there should be some additional losses of this 1114terial aa it passes about the settling rates of various classes of materials. up the benthic food chain.

2. Some 17% of the benthic species at some time rise into the water column and are at risk to entrainment by the intake or the discharging water.

J1 Too little is known about this group to make a firm quantitative estimate of

~

losses, but we expect them to be roughly the same as mysid losses.

We are very uncertain about possible losses of planktonic larvae and th.e potential effects. This group of plankton is very poorly known. We do have data showing that the larvae of some intertidal and nearshore species are restricted inshore. Bovever, we cannot estimate losses of benthic larvae because we do not know how to estimate mortality caused by the plume. Finally, although we know for some rocky bottom species that have been studied, that larval settll!llent far exceeds the number needed to maintain !;he adult popula-tion, ve do not knov if this is always the caae, or if it is true for soft bottoms. If it were, likely raduetions in larval settlement would have no effect on adult numbers.

It is possible that aoms intertidal and shallow vatet species will show reduced adult densities close to SONGS. Bovever, it seems likely that total

HARD BO'l"!C!! CC!!MUNITIES The Hard Benthos Project (Hard Benthos Appendix) hss shown clear dif-

~~

ferences between nearshore and offshore communities on the underside of experimental panels, and s~ degree of similarity between the communities on panels and on natural boulders. There is also a correlation between these d differenees and turbidity; and the inshore species grow faster than offshore 1 ZOOSPORES - 2 GAMETOPHVTES species at high turbidity. /(SlJm* to IOlJml t~10'j.lm to.SO'j.l m)

We believe there is no strong evidence that major changes. will occur in this co=munity. Several factors prevent us from making quantitative

'j1

!:!1 predictions, including the lack of close similarity between experimental panels and the tops of boulders, and the lack of quantitative relationships between possible changes and turbidity levels.

7 ADULT UOm to 20ml I 3

MICROSCOPIC SPOROf.>HYTE" tSO 'IJ"' to 2.Smrm

~

6 SUBAOULT tim to !Oml <2.5mm to 10 em 1 5

JUVENILE ItO em to 1m)

a£-]

~(I) "'

a-cm I))>

..... > -o oc

..........  !!.!:j

'";;'t:"

""nao

~"< rot aa ,... . .

• !!I::.

!" i ~ I) g

\_

cnn E~

'"'g 52 Ill I ~ !:j

a~

"'N

~ ~_9--

t I "

1:! g ~

-r:o (I)m l\l "'00t itg - ,..

I) ~

!m  !

.. 0

g...,

g,.. ~ "'

l<::r

!~1: "

..... \ 0

§ 1 t.)

H~

'ia

~g !3 .1> CSl>

't: ~

~I!

N 01

~

.... 31 )>

I) (I)

" i 0 csm  !-)(3

"':u ~ <

! ao m a.

't: -t a \I:J:  !

-1*

"t

+10 , - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - , 3.0 MLLW 0 ~ 0.0

-20 INTAKES 6.1

-40 12.2

..... -60 18.3 ~

1- w LIJ -80 244

• 1-LLJ LIJ

"- -100

a:

30.5 ....

X: :X:

1-0.. -120 36.6 l;: J, LIJ Cl -140 42.7 LLJ 0

"'I

-160 48.8 DISTANCE FROM SHORE (Km.)

-180 54.9 2 3 4 5

-200 T ,. 60.1 0 2 3 3.8 DISTANCE FROM SHORE (MILES)

Figure 1. Offshore profile of the cooling system of SONGS Units 1, 2 and 3.

(Modified from Figure II-3, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gss and Electric Company, Thermal Effect Study, San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station Units 2 and 3, Vol. 2, September, 1973.)

~-3 9""" SOK

""'(1 .,.,

r~~

o\1~.,

I

~

ex

~}1[14

'\

0.5 0 fm.ll*

.& 0 1 km Ma.p 1. Map of the region near SONGS. The kelp beds shown are the high density portions of San Mateo (SMK), San Onofre (SOK), and Barn (BK) kelp beds, as measured in December, 1978.

~.?:W&J~;:~?:~x;r~~:;:::<~-x:::i?;::-~/::~:<;;::::~.:J;;:~;;/ze%!-bi:;:;-::>,;1',-* r:--:1 MEOIUM DENSITY OF FRONDS

~}&b'~j}?.~*&~f~J$}Jj~Ji;;;(.{~fJ%~Jf/' / L.....,j > I METER IN HEIGHT

~ HIGH DENSITY OF FRONDS

~fd'@.?l*~**y

~ ) I METER IN HEIGHT UNIT I OI~E ** *****

UNIT I INTAKE UNIT Ill 0 INTAKE 0 0

• . UNIT II INTAKE BEGWUNfT Ill OIFl'USER I

I I

I I

~I

.. ~ J METERS

=

0 200 FEET

=

0 1000 UNIT II OlfFU5£R END Map 2. Map of the coast near San Onofre showing the cooling systems of SONGS Units 1, 2 and J and the medium to high density areas of kelp measured in December, 1978, within the San Onofre Kelp (SOK) bed. The boundaries of the areas where the sediments are modified are indicated by dashed linea. The dotted line delimita the area within 1,900 feet of the diffusers aa specified in the Coastal Coam1aaion Permit of February 28, 1974, Page J, ltea c.

APPENDIX F EVACUATION MODEL

APPENDIX F EVACUATION MODEL "Evacuation," used in the context of offsite emergency response in the event of substantial amount of radioactivity release to the atmosphere in a reactor accident, denotes an early and expeditious movement of people to avoid exposure to the passing radioactive cloud and/or to acute ground contamination in the wake of the cloud passage. It should be distinguished from "relocation" which denotes a post-accident response to reduce exposure from long-term ground contamination. The Reactor Safety Study 1 (RSS) consequence model contains provision for incorporating radiological consequence reduction benefits of public evacuation. Benefits of a properly planned and expeditiously carried out public evacuation would be well manifested in reduction of acute health effects associated with early exposure; namely, in the number of cases of acute fatality and acute radiation sickness which would require hospitalization. The evacuation model originally used in the RSS consequence model is described in WASH-1400 1 as well as in NUREG-0340.2 However, the evacuation model which has been used herein is a modified version 3 of the RSS model and is, to a certain extent, site-emergency-planning oriented. The modified version is briefly discussed below.

The model utilizes a circular area with a specified radius (such as a 16-km (10-mi) plume exposure pathway emergency planning Zone (EPZ)), with the reactor at the center. It is assumed that people living within portions of this area would evacuate if an accident should occur involving imminent or actual release of significant quantities of radioactivity to the atmosphere.

Significant atmospheric releases of radioactivity would in general be preceded by one or more hours of warning time (postulated as the time interval between the awareness of impending core melt and the beginning of the release of radioactivity from the containment building). For the purpose of calculation of radiological exposure, the model assumes that all people who ltve in a fan-shaped area (fanning out from the reactor) within the circular zone, with the downwind direction as its median (i.e., those people who would potentially be under the radioactive cloud that would develop following the release) would leave their residences after a specified amount of delay ttme* and then evacuate. The delay time is reckoned from the beginning of the warning time and is the sum of the time required by the reactor operators to notify the responsible authorities; the time required by the authorities to interpret the data, decide to evacuate, and direct the people to evacuate; a*nd the time required for the people to mobilize and get underway.

The model assumes that each evacuee would move radially outward in the downwind direction with an average effective speed* (obtained by dividing the zone radius by the average time taken to clear the zone after the delay time), over a fixed distance* from the evacuee's starting point, which is somewhat greater than the zone radius. This distance is selected to be 24 km (15 mi) when the selected zone radius is 16 km (10 mi). After reaching the end of the travel distance the evacuee is assumed to receive no further radiation exposure. Persons who are outside the evacuation radius are assumed to remain in place for seven days prior to relocating, unless remaining for that long a period of time would produce a dose greater than 200 rem to the whole body. In that case, relocation takes place after 24 hours2.777778e-4 days <br />0.00667 hours <br />3.968254e-5 weeks <br />9.132e-6 months <br />, with a dose appropriate to that time period.

The model incorporates a finite length of the radioactive cloud in the downwind direction, which would be determined by the prodyct of the duration over which the atmospheric release would take place and the average windSpeed during the release. It is assumed that the front and the back of the cloud formed would move with an equal speed, which would be the same as the prevailing windspeed; therefore, its length would remain constant at its initial value.

At any time after the release, the concentration of radioactivity is assumed to be uniform over.the length of the cloud. If the delay time were less than the warning time, then all evacuees would have a headstart, i.e., the cloud would be trailing behind the evacuees initially. On the other hand, if the delay time were more than the warning time, then depending on initial locations of the evacuees, there are possibilities that (a) an evacuee will still have a headstart, (b) the cloud would be already overhead when an evacuee starts to leave, or (c) an evacuee would be initially trailing behind the cloud. However, this initial picture of cloud-people disposition would change as the evacuees travel, depending on the

• Assumed to be constant value for all evacuees.

F-1