ML13052A679

Kld TR-499, Revision 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Chapter 10 Through Appendix G

ML13052A679
Person / Time
Site:	Salem, Hope Creek
Issue date:	11/30/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Public Service Enterprise Group
References
LR-N12-0366 KLD TR-499, Rev. 0
Download: ML13052A679 (92)

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10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components: " Routing from an ERPA being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.* Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable.

The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.See Appendices B through D for further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.

In New Jersey, the emergency plans dictate which ERPA are required to go to which reception center, and the DYNEV-11 model routes evacuating traffic accordingly.

ERPA 1, 2, 6 and 7 evacuate to the reception center at Bridgeton High School, ERPA 3 and 4 evacuate to the reception center at Salem County Vocational Technical High School and ERPA 5 evacuates to the reception center at the Pennsville Fire Department.

Figure 10-1 present maps showing the general population and school reception centers for evacuees.

The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2 and Figure 10-3.It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate host school and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians.

Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the reception center designated for their ERPA.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 10-1. General Population and School Reception Centers Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure 10-2. New Jersey Evacuation Route Map Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 LZ Figure 10-3. Delaware Evacuation Route Map 10-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 10-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation.

There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement.

Surveillance can take several forms.1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.

4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.

These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery.

It is the responsibility of the state emergency management agencies to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner.This coverage should quickly identify, and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that: " They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes." Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.Consideration should also be given that the state emergency management agencies encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS 11-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate.

The EPZ county radiological emergency plans do not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation.

Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.

The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.

It is reasonable to assume for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.The confirmation process should start at about 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Table 5-9). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of ERPA), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.If this method is indeed used by the state emergency management agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times.Such a list could be purchased from vendors and could be periodically updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize.

This 3-hour timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.

Other techniques could also be considered.

After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs could be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS 12-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.

Reference:

Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling.

McGraw Hill, 1971 Given: " No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 18,500" Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20" Allowable error margin, e: 0.05" Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p=F+e=0.25; q=1-p=0.75 A 2 pq + e 3 n --308 e2 Finite population correction:

nN nf _ _ = 303 n+N-1 30 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated.

If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 215.Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume: e Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers):

30 seconds* Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds* Time for 4 rings plus short conversation:

60 sec.* Interval between calls: 20 sec.Person Hours: 300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20]3600 7.6 3600 Salem-Hope Creek NGS 12-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 13 OBSERVATIONS The following observations are offered: 1. Examination of the general population ETE in Section 7 shows that the ETE for 100 percent of the population is generally 2 2 to 3 'A hours longer than for 90 percent of the population.

Specifically, the additional time needed for the last 10 percent of the population to evacuate can be as much as double the time needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population.

This non-linearity reflects the fact that these relatively few stragglers require significantly more time to mobilize (i.e. prepare for the evacuation trip) than their neighbors.

This leads to two observations:

a. The public outreach (information) program should emphasize the need for evacuees to minimize the time needed to prepare to evacuate (secure the home, assemble needed clothes, medicines, etc.).b. The decision makers should reference Table 7-1 which list the time needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population, when preparing protective actions, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.2. Staged evacuation is not beneficial due to the low population density and limited traffic congestion within the 5-mile radius of the plant.3. The roadway closure -one lane southbound on State Route 1 -does not materially affect the 90th percentile ETE for any region. See Section 7.5 for additional discussion.

4. The state emergency management agencies should implement procedures whereby schools are contacted prior to dispatch of buses from the depots to get an accurate count of students needing transportation and the number of buses required (See Section 8).5. School and medical facility and homebound special needs ETE are comparable to general population ETE at the 9 0 th percentile; however, transit-dependent residents are about an hour and half longer on average. States should consider the transit dependent ETE values when making protective action decisions.

6. Table 8-5 indicates that there are enough buses, wheelchair buses and ambulances available to evacuate the transit-dependent and homebound special needs populations within the EPZ in a single wave.7. Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) such as Dynamic Message Signs (DMS), Highway Advisory Radio (HAR), Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS), etc. should be used to facilitate the evacuation process (See Section 9). The placement of additional signage should consider evacuation needs.8. The state emergency management agencies should establish strategic locations to position tow trucks provided with gasoline containers in the event of a disabled vehicle during the evacuation process (see Section 11) and should encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

9. The state emergency management agencies should establish a system/procedure to confirm that the Advisory to Evacuate is being adhered to (see the approach suggested by KLD in Section 12).Salem-Hope Creek NGS 13-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

a. Should the approach outlined by KLD in Section 12 be used, consideration should be given to keep a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) at all times.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 13-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Term Definiio Analysis Network Link Measures of Effectiveness Node Origin Prevailing Roadway and Traffic Conditions A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g., composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.The cycle length is expressed in seconds.A single combination of signal indications.

The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.Service Rate Service Volume Signal Cycle Length Signal Interval Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate A-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Term Definiio S Signal Phase Traffic (Trip) Assignment Traffic Density Traffic (Trip) Distribution Traffic Simulation Traffic Volume Travel Mode Trip Table or Origin-Destination Matrix Turning Capacity A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection.

The phase duration is expressed in seconds.A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives.

In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance.

These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.

The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations.

These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate A-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dgynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios.

DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEVII System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost".Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario.

That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these"best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways.

The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip"cost", as discussed later.The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified"geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements.

DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network. 0 Salem-Hope Creek NGS B-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations.

The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEVII using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling.

Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion.

To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions.

The modeling principles of D-TRAD include:* It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several"efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose.* The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling".

Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed.

The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.

• DTRAD executes the TA algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.* Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as ca = ata + Ploi + ys, wherec is the generalized cost for link a, and a,,8, andyare cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively.

Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions.

The DYNEV simulation model Salem-Hope Creek NGS B-2 KLD EngineerinR, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior.

This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session).

A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant: Sa = -P3 In (p), 0 < p < I; 13 >0 d, pdo dn= Distance of node, n, from the plant do =Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 13 = Scaling factor The value of d. = 15 miles, the outer distance of the shadow region. Note that the supplemental cost, sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.B-3 KLD Engineering, p.c.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate B-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote: Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium".

It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful]

condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective"costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e., commuters).

Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate B-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 (D Start of next DTRAD Session I Set To = Clock time.Archive System State at To I Define latest Link Turn Percentages 1:1 .__FI B Execute Simulation Model from time, To to T 1 (burn time)Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T 1 Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages I Retrieve System State at T;Apply new Link Turn Percents DTRDiteration converges?

No Yes Simulate from To to T2 (DTA session duration)Set Clock to T7 Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate B-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model C. DYNEVTRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables:

vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions.

The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)such as those listed in Table C-1.Model Features Include:* Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles." Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model.* At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications:

queued and moving vehicles.

The number of vehicles in each classification is computed.

Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified.

The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation.

There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link." Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented.

This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source." The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.

If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded." A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.* A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages.

• Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN* Calculates ETE statistics Salem-Hope Creek NGS C-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 All traffic simulation models are data-intensive.

Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections:

rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways.

The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).Figure C-1 is an example of a small network representation.

The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively.

An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.

Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II MeasureUnitsAppie To Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Route Statistics Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Time (min)Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate C-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK" Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers" Link lengths* Number of lanes (up to 6) and channelization

• Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)" Destination (exit) nodes" Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link" Node Coordinates (X,Y)* Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES 0 On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS

• Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific" Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated* Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)" Stop and Yield signs" Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)* Route diversion specifications

• Turn restrictions" Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)

DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

• Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms:

free-flow speed, discharge headway" Bus route designation.

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT" Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)

• Duration of DTA sessions" Duration of simulation "burn time"* Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS" Identify and Schedule of closed lanes* Identify and Schedule of closed links Salem-Hope Creek NGS C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships.

Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax., at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf k k, = 45 vpm, the density at capacity.

In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, k, < k _5 k, = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion.

The value of flow rate, QS, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax; (3) Critical density, k, =__Qmaxkf=k-45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, kj. Then, vc = , kf = -(Vf-VC)k.

Setting k = k -kc , then Q = RQmax- RQmax F 2 for 0 -- k -< ks = 50 .it can be Qmax 8333 shown that Q = (0.98 -0.0056 k) RQmax for ks - k -- kwhere ks = 50 and kW = 175.C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems".

Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS C-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Volume, vph Drop R---- Qs Speed, Vf R vc -FlowKRegimes mph Free Forced:-I II I I I* I I I-- -- --- -Density, vpm o, Density, vpm kf I I k, ýs Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Distance IL Qb OQ OM OE L Mb Qe me O Down Up-- Time El E2 TII Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with t 1> 0 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the time interval.

The portion, ETI, can reach the stop-bar within the TI.The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn movement on a link.h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.-The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a link.L The length of the link in feet.Lb , Le The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a time interval.The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a particular movement on a link.Lv The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.M Metering factor (Multiplier):

1.The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb , M, moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval.

These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link over a time interval.The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged OQ, OM,OE. from a link within a time interval:

vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that executes a particular turn movement, x.Salem-Hope Creek NGS C-8 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Fvacuafion Timp Fstimatp Rpv- ()

0 The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the Qb, Qe [beginning, end] of the time interval.The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).tj Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first t 1 seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate C-9 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.

Given= Qb, Mb, L, TI, Eo, LN, G/C , h, Lv, Ro, LE,M Compute = 0, Q,, Me Define O=OQ+OM+OE

E=E,+E 2 1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, ko , the R -factor, Ro and entering traffic, Eo, using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.For each subsequent sweep, s > 1, calculate E = Zi Pi Oi + S where Pi, Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i , and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = ko , and E = Eo .2. Calculate v (k) such that k < 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.Calculate Cap = Q-ax(TI) (G/c) LN,in vehicles, this value may be reduced due to metering SetR=1.0ifG/C<

1 orifk:k,;

Set R=0.9onlyifG/C=

land k>k, Calculate queue length, Lb = Qb L It 3. Calculate t 1=TI--. Ift 1<O, sett'=El=OE=O Else, El =E !v TI 4. Then E 2=E-El ; t 2=TI-tj 5. If Qb > Cap, then OQ = Cap,OM = OE = 0 If tj > 0,then Q'e = Qb + Mb + E 1 -Cap Else Q'e = Qb -Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)6. Else (Qb -< Cap)OQ = Qb, RCap = Cap- OQ 7. If Mb < RCap,then Salem-Hope Creek NGS C-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

8. If t 1 > 0, OM =Mb, OE min RCap 0Mb, T Q'e = El -OE If Qe > 0,then Calculate Qe, Me with Algorithm A Else Qe =0, Me =E2 End if Else (t, = 0)M= (v(TI)-Lb)

Mb and 0 E -0 ( L-Lb )Me =Mb -0 M + E; Qe = 0 End if 9. Else (Mb > RCap)O= 0 If tl > O, then OM=RCap, Q'e=Mb--OM+El Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A 10. Else (t, = 0)Md= [(v(TI)-Lb)

Mb]K\ L-Lb ) b]If Md > RCap, then OM =RCap Q'= Md -OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM = Md Me = Mb -0 M + E and Qe = 0 End if End if End if End if 11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn [kb + 2 km + ke], where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = density at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.If Ikn -kn-1[ > E and n < N where N = max number of iterations, and E is a convergence criterion, then Salem-Hope Creek NGS C-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn*End if Computation of unit problem is now complete.

Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.

13. If Qe + Me > (L-W) LN, then LV The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB = Qe + Me (L-W) .LN L, where W is the width of the upstream intersection.

To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1 S) >- 0 ,where M is the metering factor (over all movements).(E +S)-This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb VQ Q'o shown, Qb Cap, with t, > 0 and a queue of Qe length, Qe, formed by that portion of Mb and E that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could v not discharge due to inadequate capacity.

That is, Mb Qb + Mb + E 1 > Cap. This queue length, V L3 Qe = Qb + Mb + E1 -Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current--TI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the ti_ t3 queue within the TI. A portion of the entering T I vehicles, E 3 = E TI' will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 , Qe and Me for the input values of L, TI, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Q'e When t, > 0 and Qb 5 Cap: Lv Lv Define: Le = Qe v .From the sketch, L 3 = v(TI -t, -t 3) = L -(Q'e + E 3) v e LN e LN Substituting E 3 = L- E yields: -Vt 3 + L3 E 1/2-- = L -v(TI -t 1) -L'e. Recognizing that TI TI LN the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain: Salem-Hope Creek NGS C-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 t3 = E v such that 0 < t 3 < TI -t 1 Iv TI L-NJ If the denominator, v Tj L! <- 0, set t 3 = TI -t 1 Then, Qe =Q'+ET-'E t Me =E 1 tl+t 3 The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed.

Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.

Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm Salem-Hope Creek NGS C-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.

The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:

Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping).

After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes.

It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.Salem-Hope Creek NGS C-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary:

Table C-3)Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate C-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.Figure B-1 depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions";

each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,[To, T2], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function.

The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.As indicated in Figure B-i, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function.

These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T 1 __ T 2 , which lies within the session duration, [To ,T 2] .This "burn time", T 1 -To, is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To, and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T 2 .At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.Additional details are presented in Appendix B.Salem-Hope Creek NGS C-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 0 APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates.

The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.Step 1 The first activity was to obtain Emergency Planning Zone boundary information and create a Geographic Information System base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location.

The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ and ERPA boundaries.

Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Employee data were estimated using the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics interactive website 1 , and from phone calls to major employers.

Transient data were obtained from local/state emergency management agencies and from phone calls to transient attractions.

Information concerning schools, medical and other types of special facilities within the EPZ was obtained from county and municipal sources, augmented by telephone contacts with the identified facilities.

Step 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and local emergency managers, on-site and off-site utility emergency managers, local and state law enforcement agencies).

The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific requests for information were presented to local emergency managers.

Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study.Step 4 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic lhttp://lehdmap.did.census.gov/

Salem-Hope Creek NGS D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 values of roadway capacity.Step 5 A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population.

This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.

Step 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description.

Traffic signal timings were input accordingly.

The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.Step 7 The EPZ is subdivided into 12 ERPA. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of ERPA) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.

The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions.

Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.

Step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.Step 9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines.

DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified.

The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.

The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide Salem-Hope Creek NGS D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined.

The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion.

This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions: " The results are satisfactory; or" The input stream must be modified accordingly.

This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 11 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.

These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.Step 12 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.Step 13 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation Salem-Hope Creek NGS D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 analysis.

Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.Step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated.

This process was automated through the UNITES user interface.

For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.Step 15 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results were available, quality control procedures were used to assure the results were consistent, dynamic routing was reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks were addressed properly.Step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.

Step 17 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.

Step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist was completed.

An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Step 1Step 10 Examine Results of Prototype Evacuation Case using EVAN and DYNEV II Output Results Satisfactory Step 11 Modify Evacuation Destinations and/or Develop Traffic Control Treatments I IStep 12 Modify Database to Reflect Changes to Prototype Evacuation Case Step 13 Establish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation Routes and Update DYNEV 11 Database Step 14 Generate DYNEV 11 Input Streams for All F Evacuation Cases Step 15 Execute DYNEV 11 to Compute ETE for All Evacuation Cases Step 16 Use DYNEV 11 Average Speed Output to Compute ETE for Transit and Special Facility Routes JrStep 17 I Documentation Step 18 F _ Complete ETE CriteriaChcls Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX E Special Facility Data E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of December 2011, for special facilities, transient attractions and major employers that are located within the Salem-Hope Creek EPZ.Special facilities are defined as schools (including preschools that evacuate by bus), hospitals and other medical care facilities, major employers and correctional facilities.

Transient population data is included in the tables for recreational areas and lodging facilities.

Employment data is included in the tables for major employers.

Each table is grouped by county. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each school, day care center, recreational area, lodging facility, and major employer are also provided.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-1. New Jersey Schools and Daycares within the EPZ 1 6.7 E Lower Alloways Creek Elementary School 967 Main Street Salem (856) 935-2707 198 28 2 8.6 NE Quinton Township Elementary School 8 Robinson Street Quinton (856) 935-2379 370 57 3 6.1 N Elsinboro Township School 631 Salem Ft Elfsboro Road Salem (856) 935-3817 100 18 3 7.9 NNE John Fenwick Elementary School 183 Smith Street Salem (856) 935-4100 409 81 3 7.3 NNE Salem High School 51 New Market Street Salem (856) 935-3900 387 70 3 8.1 NNE Salem Middle School 219 Walnut Street Salem (856) 935-2700 425 66 Arc of Salem County 150 Woodstown Road Salem (856) 935-3600 150 =35 10.3 Stow Creek Township Elementary School 11 Gum Tree Corner Road Bridgeton (856) 455-1717 143 6 9.9 Woodland Country Day School 1216 Roadstown Road Bridgeton (856) 453-8499 14 3 7 11.1 Morris Goodwin Elementary School 839 Ye Greate Street Greenwich (856) 451-5513 10 1 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-2. Delaware Schools and Daycares within the EPZ B 9.7 w Appoquinimink Early Childhood Center bUz boutn Itsroad Street Middletown (3U) 37 b-440U 23/B 9.6 W Bethesa Child Development Center 116 East Main Street Middletown (302) 378-8435 210 32 B 9.7 W Everett Meredith Middle School 504 South Broad Street Middletown (302) 378-9511 691 65 B 9.7 W James H. Grove Adult High School 504 S. Broad Street Middletown (302) 378-5037 160 20 B 9.7 W Middletown High School 120 Silver Lake Road Middletown (302) 376-4145 1,215 155 B 6.2 WSW Old State Elementary School 580 Tony Marchio Drive Middletown N/A 404 65 B 9.3 W Silver Lake Elementary School 200 East Cochran Street Middletown (302)378-5045 529 75 B 6.2 WSW Spring Meadow Early Childhood Center 611 Campus Drive Middletown (302) 378-8435 147 30 B 8.5 WSW St Andrew's Pre-school and Childcare 350 Noxontown Road Middletown (302) 285-4356 55 14 B 8.5 WSW St Andrew's School 350 Noxontown Road Middletown (302) 834-7018 291 175 B 8.9 W St Anne's Episcopal School 211 Silver Lake Road Middletown (302) 378-3179 306 50 B 9.4 WSW Townsend Early Childhood Center 126 Main Street Townsend (302) 378-9960 234 26 B 9.4 WSW Townsend Elementary School 126 Main Street Townsend (302) 378-5020 404 65 C 10.0 NW Advo Serv School 4185 Kirkwood Saint Georges Road Bear (302) 834-7018 130 220 C 8.6 WNW Alfred G. Waters Middle School 1235 Cedar Lane Road Middletown (302) 449-3490 900 80 C 8.0 W Brick Mill Elementary School 378 Brick Mill Road Middletown (302) 378-5288 754 91 C 7.4 WNW Cedar Lane Early Childhood Center 1221 Cedar Lane Road Middletown (302) 449-3600 265 42 C 8.4 WNW Cedar Lane Elementary School 1259 Cedar Lane Road Middletown (302) 378-5045 634 76 C 6.6 W Green Acres Preschool 23 North 6th Street Odessa (302) 378-9250 174 16 C 8.6 NW Gunning Bedford Middle School 801 Cox Neck Road New Castle (302) 832-6280 1,100 120 C 10.6 NE Kathleen H. Wilbur Elementary 4050 Wrangle Hill Road Bear (302) 832-6330 1,150 181 C 9.3 W Redding Middle School 201 New Street Middletown (302) 378-5030 756 70 C 8.6 NW Southern Elementary School 795 Cox Neck Road New Castle (302) 832-6300 944 110 C 8.3 WNW St Georaes Technical High School 555 Hvett's Corner Road Middletown (302) 683-3772 1.042 135 E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ A 6.4 NW Van Hook-Walsh Residence 554 Port Penn Road Middletown (302) 834-4404 4 2 2 0 0 B 8.1 SW Blackbird Landing Group 994 Blackbird Townsend (302) 659-0512 8 8 8 0 0 Home Connections Inc. Landing Road Cadia Rehab-B 9.7 W Broadmeadow 500 Broad St. Middletown (302) 449-3400 117 77 17 60 0 B 9.4 SW Clint Walker Group 676 Black Diamond Smyrna (302) 389-1118 10 10 10 0 0 home, Connections Inc. Road B 9.8 SW Mosaic/Black Diamond 4966 S Dupont Pkwy Townsend (302 743-1499 6 5 0 5 0 B 8.7Middletown Residential B 8.7 W Treatment Center 495 East Main Street Middletown (302) 378-5224 10 10 10 0 0 Peoples Place Peopes Pace118 Blackbird Forest B 9.3 SW Residential Group Home Rd Townsend (302) 376-9899 10 10 10 0 0 for Boys C 8.2 NNW Cornerstone Residential, 171 New Castle Ave Delaware (302) 836-8260 15 15 15 0 0 Connections Inc. # 3 City C 8.3 NNW Gateway Foundation 171 New Castle Delaware (302) 367-5291 80 80 80 0 0 Cottage 1 and 2 Avenue City C 7.9 NNW Governor Bacon Health P.O. Box 559 Delaware (302) 836-2550 80 59 12 47 0 Center City C 8.7 W Silver Lake Day Traitnnnt rantor 493 E Maint Street Middletown (302) 378-5238 26 26 26 0 0 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Table E-4. New Jersey Major Employers within the EPZ 1 6.7 E Lower Alloways Creek Elementary School 967 Main Street Salem (856) 935-2707 78 67%53 1 0.6 NNE PSEG Nuclear LLC Hope N/A Lower Alloways N/A 1,704 100% 1,704 Creek Creek 2 8.6 NE Quinton Township 8 Robinson Street Quinton (856) 935-2379 61 72% 44 Elementary School 3 8.4 NNE Anchor Hocking Glass 93 Griffith Street Salem (856) 835-4000 130 67% 88 3 8.1 NNE Cooper Interconnect 23 South Front Street Salem (856) 935-7560 120 37% 44 3 8.3 NNE Farmers Mutual Fire 125 West Broadway Salem (856) 935-1851 44 70% 31 Insurance Company 3 7.9 NNE John Fenwick Elementary 183 Smith Street Salem (856) 935-4100 80 67% 54 School 3 7.4 NNE PSEG Nuclear Development 244 Chestnut Street Salem N/A 39 100% 39 3 8.4 NNE Salem County Government 92 Market Street Salem (856) 935-9036 491 67% 331 Offices 3 7.3 NNE Salem High School 219 Walnut Street Salem (856) 935-3900 110 67% 74 3 8.1 NNE Salem Middle School 51 New Market Street Salem (856) 935-2700 110 67% 74 4 9.1 NNE Mannington Resilient Floors 75 Mannington Mills Salem (856) 935-3000 550 76% 416 Road 4 8.8 NNE National Freight Inc. S Route 45 Mannington (856) 339-9257 100 76% 76 4 9.5 NNE Salem County Mannington Center 165 Route 45 Salem N/A 50 76%38 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-S. Delaware Major Employers within the EPZ B 9.7 w Cadia Rehab-Broadmeadow 500 Broad Street Middletown (302) 449-3400 91 75%68 B 9.7 Everett Meredith Middle 504 South Broad Street Middletown (302) 378-5001 91 75% 68______School B 9.7 W Middletown High School 120 Silver Lake Road Middletown (302) 376-4145 145 75% 109 B 9.3 W Silver Lake Elementary School 200 East Cochran Middletown (302) 378-5023 60 75% 45 1 Street B 8.5 WSW St Andrew's School 350 Noxontown Road Middletown (302) 285-4213 125 75% 94 B 8.9 W St Anne's Episcopal School 211 Silver Lake Road Middletown (302) 378-5023 55 75% 41 B 9.4 WSW Townsend Elementary School 126 Main Street Townsend (302) 378-3179 55 75% 41 C 10.0 NW Advoserv 4185Bear (302) 834-7018 140 75% 105 1 _Georges Road C 8.6 WNW Alfred G. Waters Middle 1235 Cedar Lane Road Middletown (302) 376-4128 60 75% 45_____School C 8.0 W Brick Mill Elementary School 378 Brick Mill Road Middletown (302) 378-5288 80 75% 60 C 8.4 WNW Cedar Lane Elementary School 1259 Cedar Lane Road Middletown (302) 378-5045 70 75% 53 C 8.3 NNW Delaware City Fire Company 815 5th Street Delaware City (302) 834-9336 40 70% 28 C 9.5 NNW Delaware City Refinery Co. 4442 Wrangle Road Delaware City (302) 834-6271 600 75% 450 C 10.3 NW Formosa Plastics Corporation 780 School House Road New Castle (302) 836-2200 56 10% 6 C 7.9 NNW Governor Bacon Health P. 0. Box'559 Delaware City (302) 836-2550 115 75% 86____ ______ _____ Center___

_____________

C 8.6 NW Gunning Bedford Middle 801 Cox Neck Road Red Lion (302) 832-6280 84 75% 64_____School C 9.8 W Johnson Controls Inc. 700 North Broad Street Middletown (302) 378-9885 113 75% 85 C 9.8 W Quaker City Motor Parts Co. 680 North Broad Street Middletown (302) 378-9583 86 75% 65 C 9.3 W Redding Middle School 201 New Street Middletown-Odessa (302) 378-5030 70 75%53 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Table E-6. New Jersey Recreational Areas within the EPZ I 1 .1 1 I Nl: I lSInDOrO boat Launcn IU I IIDUrY Koao i baiem Il1 b) i:i,-1LZb1 I 1 I 4 1 6 7.0 ESE Stow Creek State Park Boat Ramp Stow Creek Road Stow Creek Landing (856) 785-0455 10 6 7 11.0 ESE Greenwich Boatworks 1 Pier Road Greenwich (856) 451-7777 33 17 7 11.3 ESE Hancock Harbor Marina 30 Hancock Harbor Road Greenwich (856) 455-2610 42 21 1 4.8 NE Abbotts Farm Abbots Farm Road Elsinboro N/A 10 3 1 5.1 NE Hancock House 3 Front Street Lower Alloways Creek N/A 20 7 1 3.8 E Mad Horse Creek Fish and Stowneck Road Lower Alloways Creek (609) 984-0547 25 9 Wildlife Management Area 1 6.6 ESE Mad Horse Creek WMA Boat Stowneck Road Lower Alloways Creek (609) 984-0547 172 86 Ramp 2 7.5 E Meadowview Campground 69 Buckhorn Road Salem (856) 935-4710 40 14 2 7.8 NE Wild Oaks Golf Club 75 Wild Oaks Drive Salem (856) 935-0705 150 75 3 8.0 NNE Barber's Basin Inc 108 Tilbury Road Salem (865) 935-1261 34 17 3 7.8 NNE Salem Public Boat Ramp (PSE&G) Friendship Drive Salem N/A 65 41 5 9.7 N Fort Mott State Park 454 Fort Mott Road Pennsville (856) 935-3218 580 103 5 8.5 NNE Penn-Salem Marina Rte 49 Salem (856) 935-2628 6 3 5 8.7 NNE Salem Boat Club SR 45 Salem N/A 20 10 5 10.9 N Supawna Meadows National CR 632 Pennsville N/A 15 5 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-7. Delaware Recreational Areas within the EPZ A 1 10.1 SSE I Smyrna River Boat Ramp Woodland Beach Road Woodland Beach N/A 117 60 A 9.8 SSE Woodland Beach Beach Avenue Woodland Beach N/A 146 75 A 8.1 SSE Woodland Beach State Florio Road Smyrna N/A Wildlife Management Area 50 17 IS A 9.3 S Aquatic Resource Education 4876 Hay Point Landing Center Road Smyrna_ 302-653-2882 A 3.7 NW Augustine Beach Boat Ramp St Augustine Road Port Penn N/A 88 60 A 4.3 NNW Augustine Wildlife Area 503 N. Congress Street Port Penn (302) 834-8433 50 17 A 5.3 S Cedar Swamp: Collins Beach Collins Beach Road Smyrna N/A 350 240 A 4.0 WSW Cedar Swamp: The Rock Tract Steve's Landing Road Middletown N/A 58 30 A 4.3 NNW Port Penn Interpretive Center 1 W Market Street Middletown-Odessa (302) 836-2533 25 9 A 6.2 WNW Vandergrift Golf Club 631 Bayview Road Middletown (302) 378-3665 50 25 B 6.4 W Appoquinimink Creek Boat Main Street Odessa N/A 10 5 Ramp B 6.6 WSW Odessa National Golf Club 1131 Fieldsboro Road Townsend (302) 464-1007 60 35 B 9.3 W Silver Lake Park Kings Highway Middletown (302) 378-4975 300 103 C 8.0 NNW Delaware City Marina 302 Canal Street Delaware City (302) 834-4172 20 10 C 7.3 NNW Fort Dupont State Park P.O. Box 170 Delaware City (302) 834-7941 292 150 C 9.4 W Frog Hollow Golf Course 1 Wittington Way Middletown (302) 376-6500 50 20 C 7.4 NNW Grass Dale Center 108 Old ReedyDelaware City (302) 834-7941 6 6 Riad Delaware CiRo a302) 834-7941 6 r) 2 Q hMIUA r :nrt ni' nwau*rn C~fnt DnrL- At. rlinf+- Cfr..+ I'll,: tih :nl R:ZA1-7QAl )nn r R Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate O E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 O Table E-8. New Jersey Lodging Facilities within the EPZ 1 3 1 7.9 I NNE I Ashton's Apartments I 79 Union Street I Salem I (85b) 935-U41b I b I 3 I Table E-9. Delaware Lodging Facilities within the EPZ 1 1. w I'eaWan i -n i vim Moie iM I uupont rarKway C 7.3 WNW Camellia Cottage 350 Hyett's Corner Road I Middletown 1 (302) 383-3237 1 6 1 4 I CF 8.4 NNW Olde Canal Inn 30 Clinton Street City DlaWare N/A 20 10 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-1O. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ I B I 9.4 I SSW I James T. VauRhn Correctional Center I 1181 Paddock Road I Smyrna 1 (302)653-9261 I 2.500 I I I I I -I I' I -I Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 40 E-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure E-1. New Jersey Schools within the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-2. Delaware Schools within the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 E-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 40 Figure E-3. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-4. New Jersey Major Employers within the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 E-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure E-5. Delaware Major Employers within the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-6. New Jersey Recreational Areas within the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 E-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I , I I , .: _ý_ 16, ., ý I -ý 1 11 1 Figure E-7. Delaware Recreational Areas within the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Lodging within the Salem-Hope Creek Figure E-8. Lodging within the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate is E-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 0 Figure E-9. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate E-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX F Telephone Survey F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the Salem-Hope Creek EPZ requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ. Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning.

First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population.

The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ...?")Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2 Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A draft of the instrument was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey instrument was modified accordingly, prior to conducting the survey.Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed.

A sample size of approximately 600 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-4% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population.

Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using GIS software.

This list is shown in Table F-1. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software.

The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as shown in Table F-1.The completed survey adhered to the sampling plan.Table F-1. Salem-Hope Creek Telephone Survey Sampling Plan 08070 459 208 7 08079 9,951 4,728 152 08302 499 207 7 08323 246 120 4 19701 1,708 521 17 19706 1,747 729 23 19709 24,150 8,381 269 1977fl 1 241 19734 8,318 2,809 90 19977 4,018 572 18 Total 52,337 18,700 600 Average Household Size: 2.80 Total Sample Required:

600 Salem-Hope Creek NGS F-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 F.3 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories.

First, the household demographics of the area can be identified.

Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability.

The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or"refused" entry for a response.

It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions.

To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses.

In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.F.3.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.83 people. The estimated household size (2.80 persons) used to determine the survey sample (Table F-i) was drawn from Census data. The close agreement between the average household size obtained from the survey and from the Census is an indication of the reliability of the survey results.Salem-Hope Creek Household Size 50%40%I/A 0 x 20%0 10%0%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+Household Size Figure F-i. Household Size in the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 2.13. It should be noted that approximately

3.7 percent

of households do not have access to an automobile.

The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 and Figure F-4 present the automobile availability by household size. Note that the majority of households without access to a car are single person households.

As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle.Salem-Hope Creek Vehicle Availability 50%40%30%0 20%10%0%0 1 2 3 4 5 Number of Vehicles 6 7 8 Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 1-5 Person Households M 1Person *2 People 13 People M4 People E5 People 100%IA 80%0 60%x 40%0 20%0%i M 6 7 8 m~ I , Am 00...0 1 2 3 4 Vehicles 5 Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability

-1 to 5 Person Households Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 6-9+ Person Households S6 People *7 People m8 People *9+ People 100%80%60%40%0 20%0%0 1 2 3 4 5 Vehicles Figure F-4. Vehicle Availability

-6 to 9+ Person Households Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Ridesharing 87% of the households surveyed who do not own a vehicle responded that they would share a ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when asked to evacuate.

Note, however, that only those households with no access to a vehicle -23 total out of the sample size of 600 -answered this question.

Thus, the results are not statistically significant.

As such, the NRC recommendation of 50% ridesharing is used throughout this study.Figure F-5 presents this response.Salem-Hope Creek Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend 0 M 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 I -Yes No Figure F-5. Household Ridesharing Preference 0 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Commuters Figure F-6 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.

Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.The data shows an average of 1.18 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 64% of households have at least one commuter.Salem-Hope Creek Commuters 50%40%0 30%0 x 20%0 10%0%0 1 2 3 4+Number of Commuters Figure F-6. Commuters in Households in the EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Commuter Travel Modes Figure F-7 presents the mode of travel that commuters use on a daily basis. The vast majority of commuters use their private automobiles to travel to work. The data shows an average of 1.06 employees per vehicle, assuming 2 people per vehicle -on average -for carpools.Salem-Hope Creek Travel Mode to Work E E 0 9 100%80%60%VU.Z.7o 14U70 20%0%0.4% 3.1% 1.0%r 5.3%)rive Alone Carpool (2+)Rail Bus Walk/Bike Mode of Travel D Figure F-7. Modes of Travel in the EPZ F.3.2 Evacuation Response Several questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency.

These are now discussed: "How many of the vehicles would your household use during on evacuation?" The response is shown in Figure F-8. On average, evacuating households would use 1.34 vehicles."Would your family await the return of other family members prior to evacuating the area?" Of the survey participants who responded, 47 percent said they would await the return of other family members before evacuating and 53 percent indicated that they would not await the return of other family members."If you had a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?" As shown in Figure F-9, 78 percent of households have a family pet. Of the households with pets, 94 percent of them indicated that they would take their pets.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Vehicles Used for Evacuation 4A 4A 0 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 1 2 3 4 Number of Vehicles 5 6 7 Figure F-8. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation Households Evacuating with Pets 100%80%Inl 0 60%% 40%0 20%0%Yes No Figure F-9. Households Evacuating with Pets Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an emergency.

Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 81 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 19 percent would choose to evacuate the area. Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002.

Thus, the data obtained above is in good agreement with the federal guidance."Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged evacuation.

That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 68 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 32 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately.

F.3.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities.

These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.

The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "How long does it take the commuter to complete preparation for leaving work?" Figure F-10 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed by about 90 minutes.Ninety percent can leave within 40 minutes.Time to Prepare to Leave Work E E 0 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 Preparation Time (min)90 Figure F-10. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work/School"How long would it take the commuter to travel home?" Figure F-11 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. About 93 percent of commuters can arrive home within about 60 minutes of leaving work; nearly all within 120 minutes.Work to Home Travel 100%80%i2 S60% -E E 0 U 40% -0 20% -0%W 0 30 60 90 120 Travel Time (min)Figure F-11. Work to Home Travel Time Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, and load the car?" Figure F-12 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.

The distribution shown in Figure F-12 has a long "tail." About 93 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 120 minutes; the remaining households require up to an additional 75 minutes.Time to Prepare to Leave Home 0 0 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 60 120 180 Preparation Time (min)Figure F-12. rime to Prepare Home for Evacuation Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?" During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street. Figure F-13 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway.

The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 80 percent of driveways are passable within 75 minutes. The last driveway is cleared three hours after the start of this activity.

Note that those respondents (28%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity.

Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.-I Time to Remove Snow from Driveway 0 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 Time (min)120 150 180 Figure F-13. Time to Clear Driveway of 6"-8" of Snow F.4 Conclusions The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time" which can influence evacuation time estimates.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ATTACHMENT A Telephone Survey Instrument 0 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Telephone Survey Instrument Hello, my name is and I'm calling on behalf of your local emergency management organization for a survey designed to identify local behavior during emergency situations.

This information will be used in a traffic engineering study and will be shared with local officials for their consideration in enhancing emergency response plans in your area for all hazards; emergency planning for some hazards may require evacuation.

Your participation in this survey will greatly contribute to local emergency preparedness.

I will not ask for your name and the survey will take at most 10 minutes to complete.COL. 1 COL. 2 COL. 3 COL. 4 COL. 5 Sex Unused Unused Unused Unused Unused COL. 8 1 Male 2 Female INTERVIEWER:

ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD.(Terminate call if not a residence.)

DO NOT ASK: 1A. Record area code. To Be Determined COL. 9-11 lB. Record exchange number. To Be Determined COL. 12-14 2. What is your home zip code? COL. 15-19 3A. In total, how many cars, or other vehicles are COL. 20 SKIP TO usually available to the household?

1 ONE Q. 4 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 2 TWO Q. 4 3 THREE Q. 4 4 FOUR Q0. 4 5 FIVE 0. 4 6 SIX Q. 4 7 SEVEN Q.4 8 EIGHT Q. 4 9 NINE OR MORE Q. 4 0 ZERO (NONE) Q. 3B X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 3B 3B. In an emergency, could you get a ride out of the COL. 21 area with a neighbor or friend? 1 YES 2 NO X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

4. How many people usually live in this household?

COL. 22 COL. 23 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 1 ONE 0 TEN 2 TWO 1 ELEVEN 3 THREE 2 TWELVE 4 FOUR 3 THIRTEEN 5 FIVE 4 FOURTEEN 6 SIX 5 FIFTEEN Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 7 SEVEN 6 SIXTEEN 8 EIGHT 7 SEVENTEEN 9 NINE 8 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

5. How many adults in the household commute to a COL. 24 SKIP TO job, or to college on a daily basis? 0 ZERO Q. 9 1 ONE Q. 6 2 TWO Q. 6 3 THREE Q. 6 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 6 5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 9 INTERVIEWER:

For each person identified in Question 5, ask Questions 6, 7, and 8.6. Thinking about commuter #1, how does that person usually travel to work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER)Commuter #1 Commuter #2 Commuter #3 Commuter #4 COL. 25 COL. 26 COL. 27 COL. 28 Rail 1 1 1 1 Bus 2 2 2 2 Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3 Drive Alone 4 4 4 4 Carpool-2 or more people 5 5 5 5 Don't know/Refused 6 6 6 6 7. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 29 COL. 30 COL. 31 COL. 32 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56- 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56- 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR MINUTES 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES Salem-Hope Creek NGS F-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ .)9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ )9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 33 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 34 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND I HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ )9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED COL. 35 1 2 3 5 MINUTES OR LESS 6-10 MINUTES 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 36 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY ___9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 8. Approximately how much time does it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 37 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 38 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ )9 0 COL. 39 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 40 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ )9 0 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 X DON'T KNOWREFUSEDX DON'T KNOW /REFUSED X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 41 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 42 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN I HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ .)COL. 43 1 2 3 5 MINUTES OR LESS 6-10 MINUTES 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 ' 41-45 MINUTES COL. 44 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS 4 THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 9 0 x 8 9 0 x OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY DON'TKNOW/REF___S)

DON'T KNOW /REFUSED DON'T KNOW /REFUSED 9.' If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COL. 45 COL. 46 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 15-30MINUTES 2 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES 3 31-45 MINUTES 3 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES -i HOUR 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES X OVER 6 HOURS (SPECIFY __ .)Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS COL. 47 1 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 10 If there is 6-8" of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate?

If yes, how much time, on average, would it take you to clear the 6-8" of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable. (DO NOT READ RESPONSES)

COL. 48 COL. 49 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 X Y Z LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 15-30 MINUTES 31-45 MINUTES 46 MINUTES -1 HOUR 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS NO, WILL NOT SHOVEL OUT 1 OVER 3 HOURS (SPECIFY __2 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

11. Please choose one of the following (READ COL. S0 ANSWERS):

1 A A. I would await the return of household commuters to evacuate together.

2 B B. I would evacuate independently and meet X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED other household members later.12. How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COL. 51 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE)X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 13A. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an COL. 52 emergency.

Would you: (READ ANSWERS) 1 A A. SHELTER; or 2 B B. EVACUATE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 13B. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in COL. 53 an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you: (READ ANSWERS)A. SHELTER; or 1 A 2 B X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED B. EVACUATE 14. If you have a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?(READ ANSWERS)COL. 54 1 DON'T HAVE A PET 2 YES 3 NO X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Thank you very much.(TELEPHONE NUMBER CALLED)IF REQUESTED:

For additional information, contact your State Emergency Management Agency during normal business hours.County EMA Phone New Jersey 1-800-792-8314 Delaware 1-877-729-3362 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate F-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX G Traffic Management Plan G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation simulation modeling.

The traffic and access control plans for the EPZ were provided by each state.These plans were reviewed and the TCPs and ACPs were modeled accordingly.

G.1 Traffic Control Points As discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) are modeled as actuated signals. If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, and the intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system. Table K-2 provides the control type and node number for those nodes which are controlled.

If the existing control was changed due to the point being a Traffic Control Point, the control type is indicated as "TCP" in Table K-2.As discussed in Section 7.3, the animation of evacuation traffic conditions indicates several critical intersections which could be bottlenecks during evacuation.

These critical intersections were cross-checked with the state emergency plans. All of the intersections were identified as TCPs in the State plan.Figure G-1 maps the TCPs identified in the state emergency plans. These TCPS are concentrated in areas which were identified as the congested areas/roadways in Section 7.3. Theses TCPs would be manned during evacuation by traffic guides who would direct evacuees in the proper direction and facilitate the flow of traffic through the intersections.

In determining the most efficient method for evacuating the city of Salem, NJSP-OEM identified four new traffic control points along Kings Highway. Schematics for these new points are provided in Figure G-2 through Figure G-5. These TCPs were considered in the ETE analysis.G.2 Access Control Points It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> of the advisory to evacuate to discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ. As discussed in Section 3.7, external traffic was only considered on two routes which traverse the EPZ -State Route 1 and US-13 in Delaware -in this analysis.

The generation of these external trips ceased at 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> after the advisory to evacuate in the simulation.

According to the state emergency plans, the ACPs in New Jersey and Delaware are listed in their respective emergency operations centers, and will be manned after the advisory to evacuate has been given. It is recommended that ACPs on the two aforementioned routes be the top priority in assigning manpower and equipment as they are the major routes traversing the EPZ, which will typically carry the highest volume of through traffic.Salem-Hope Creek NGS G-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure G-1. Traffic Control Points for Salem-Hope Creek Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 G-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Is TCP MUNICIPALITY:

Salem, NJ LOCATION:

Bypass Road & Kings Highway ERPA: 1 Shadow By*Si O pass Road-MOVEMENT FACILITATED I MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED STRAFFIC GUIDE.& STOP SIGN X TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)4 TRAFFIC SIGNAL 0 0 TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE): 00 0 S48 ft ATI'ONS TO BE TAKEN 1. Discourage northbound traffic on Bypass Road MANPOWER/EOUIPMENT ESTIMATE 1 Traffic Guide 6 Traffic Cones LOCATION PRIORITY 1 Kings Hwy**Traffic Guide should position himself safely Figure G-2. Schematic of the TCP at Bypass Road and Kings Highway G-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate G-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Kay TCP MUNICIPALITY:

Mannington, NJ LOCATION:

Kings Highway & Grissom Road ID: 2 ERPA: Shadow Grissom Road Kings Highway o MOVEMENT FACILITATED MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED TRAFFIC GUIDE JL STOP SIGN X TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)I TRAFFIC SIGNAL* *TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE): *0 0 q8 ft ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN 1. Discourage northbound traffic on Grissom Road 2. Discourage westbound traffic on Kings Hwy MANPOWER/EOUIPMENT ESTIMATE 1 Traffic Guide(s)6 Traffic Cones LOCATION PRIORITY 1 A**Traffic Guide should position himself safely Figure G-3. Schematic of the TCP at Kings Highway and Grissom Road Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate is G-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Key MUNICIPALITY:

Mannington, NJ LOCATION:

Kings Highway & Biddle Road ID: 3 ERPA: Shadow Biddle Road TCP Kings Highway MOVEMENT FACILITATED I MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED TRAFFIC GUIDE m8- STOP SIGN X TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)I TRAFFIC SIGNAL 0 *TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):@* 0!48ft ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN 1. Discourage northbound traffic on Biddle Road 2. Discourage westbound traffic on Kings Hwy MANPOWER/EOUIPMENT ESTIMATE I Traffic Guide(s)6 Traffic Cones LOCATION PRIORITY 1**Traffic Guide should position himself safely Figure G-4. Schematic of the TCP at Kings Highway and Biddle Road Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate G-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Key TCP MUNICIPALITY:

Mannington, NJ LOCATION:

Haines Neck Road & Kings Highway ID: 4 ERPA: Shadow Haines Neck Road 7 Kings Highway op MOVEMENT FACILITATED I MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED TRAFFIC GUIDE 8 ft=G- STOP SIGN X TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)o TRAFFIC SIGNAL 0

• TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE): 00 0 ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN 1. Channelize traffic 2. Park police cruiser in shoulder with emergency lights flashing MANPOWER/EOUIPMENT ESTIMATE 2 Traffic Guide(s)25 Barricades LOCATION PRIORITY 1**Traffic Guide should position himself safely Figure G-5. Schematic of the7TCP at Haines Neck Road and Kings Highway G-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 40 G-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 MUNICIPALITY:

Mannington, NJ LOCATION:

State Route 45 & Haines Neck Road ID: 5 ERPA: Shadow TCP State Route 45 Haines Neck Road-. MOVEMENT FACILITATED I MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED TRAFFIC GUIDE mwSTOP SIGN X TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)I TRAFFIC SIGNAL 0 0 TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE): 00 0 ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN 1. Discourage northbound traffic on Haines Neck Road 2. Discourage westbound traffic on State Route 45 MANPOWER/EOUIPMENT ESTIMATE 1 Traffic Guide(s)6 Traffic Cones LOCATION PRIORITY 1 A**Traffic Guide should position himself safely Figure G-6. Schematic of the TCP at State Route 45 and Haines Neck Road Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate G-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 MUNICIPALITY:

Mannington, NJ T C P LOCATION:

State Route 45 & County Home Road ID: 6 ERPA: Shadow County Home Road State Route 45 MOVEMENT FACILITATED I MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED TRAFFIC GUIDE m~ STOP SIGN X TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)f TRAFFIC SIGNAL 0

• TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE): 00 0 48 ft ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN 1. Discourage westbound traffic on State Route 45 MANPOWER/EOUIPMENT ESTIMATE 1 Traffic Guide(s)6 Traffic Cones LOCATION PRIORITY 1**Traffic Guide should position himself safely Figure G-7. Schematic of the TCPp at State Route 45 and County Home Road Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 G-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0