ML20098C759

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Affidavit of RB Gallup Re Need for Power Update
ML20098C759
Person / Time
Site: 05000000, Washington Public Power Supply System
Issue date: 08/02/1976
From: Gallup R
WASHINGTON PUBLIC POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM
To:
Shared Package
ML20093C821 List: ... further results
References
CON-WPPSS-027, CON-WPPSS-27, FOIA-84-603 NUDOCS 8409270184
Download: ML20098C759 (6)
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  • S Qgy 4- UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 2 -

NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION sj AUG 61976 > ji  !

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In the Matter of )

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WASilINGTON PUBLIC POWER ) Docket No. 50-513 SUPPLY SYSTEM )

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(N'uclear Project No. 4) )

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AFFIDAhIT OF ROBERT B. GALLUP REGARDING NEED FOR POWER UPDATE

-I . Background

. The evidentiary hearings on environmental and,

.sito suitability issues for WPPSS Nuclear Projects No. 1

(" WNP-1" ) and No. 4 ("WNP-4") were conducted on May 13-15, 1975, at which time certain exhibits were received into evidence by the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board (" Board").

This evidence included, inter alia, the 1975 West Group Forecast (Applicant's E::. 4). In addition, I submitted .

prepared testimony for the evidentiary hearings (Tr. fol-

,. lowing p. 164), and responded to examination and cross-L examination by the parties and the Board (Tr. 155-158, 160-164, 174-176,. 247-248, 263-344, 346-376). Th,ereafter, the Board issued its Partial Initial Decision in which it made findings of fact and conclusions of law relating to, inter l

alia, the need for power issue. NRCI-75/7 131, 140-142,*

! (J tly 30, 1975). ,

The evidentiary hearings on radiological l health and safoty issues were conducted on Novemb'er 11-13, 1975, at which time the Applicant requested that con-8409270184 840824 , ,

44 PDR FOIA PDR YO COHEN 84-603 acon iram I YlflRIT 'A

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- sideration of its financial qualifications to construct

's WNP-4 be deferred. Thus, the issuance of a construction

_ permit for WNP-4 has been delayed pending the disposition of the financial qualification issue. ,

II. 1976 West Group Forecast In the interim, the 1976 West Group Forecast

("1976 Forecast") was issued. The 1976 Forec; (like the ,

1975 West Group Forecast alrcAdy in evidence as Applicant's Ex."4) is an annual ll-year forecast of loads and resources for the Pacific Northwest region which is prepared by the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee. To updato the record with regard to the need for power matter, a copy of the 1976 Forecast is attached hereto as Attachment A.

The 1976 Forecast indicates that there has been a decrease in energy loads forecasted for the period 1976-1987, which, as discussed below, has been more than

. offset by a decrease in energy resources estimated to be ,

available in that same period. The table entitled " West

'A Group Forecast - June,1987" of the 1976 Forecast reflects

'that the load decrease for 1983-1984 (the years in which, for realistic planning purposes, the 1976 Forecast takes credit for the capability of WNP-4) is 489 average MW. *This amount represents a decrease of 2.26% from the load esti-mates presented in the 1975 West Group Forecast ("1975 ' I Forecast"). * -

As I indicated at p. 7 of my prepared testi- '

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mony submitted at the evidentiary hearings held on May 13- '

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. 1 15, 1975 (Tr. following p. 164), a reduction in load growth j l

from that estimated in the 1975 Forecast would result, under j normal circumstances, in a reduction in the need for the development of additional resources. llowcycr, the 1976

  • Forecast indicates that the generating resources expected to be available for the period 1976-1987 has decreased substan-tially from the resources estimated in the 1975 Forecast.

This decrease ':bi estimated resources is due to slips in schedule of certain of those facilities which were credited .

as resources for a given year in the 1975 Forecast. The slips in schedule of various nuclear and coal-fired faci-lities were due to a humber of factors including regulatory delays, financing difficulties, load reductions and construc-tion delays. .

Significantly, the table entitled " West Group Forecast - Estimated Loads and Resources, July 1976 - June 1987" of the 1976 Forecast reflects that the decrease in load estimates is more than offset by the decrease in re-sources. In fact, the surpluses noted on p. 6 in my pre-vious testimony (Tr. following p. 164) are changed to defi-ciencies in the 1976 Forecast. I noted on pp. 6-7 of my previous testimony that delay in the completion of any units

, could quickly turn a surplus into a deficit, and this, in fact, is what has occurred. For example, based upon the , '

. l 1975 Forecast, the load /rcsource picture in the year 1983-1904 (when the energy from WNP-4 was then planned to bc l availabic) showed that if all units were completed in accor- -

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. dance with the milestonc schedule set forth in the 1975 Forecast, there would be a surplus of approximately 338,000 average kilowatts of resources to meet loads without reserves.

The.1976 Forecast shows a deficiency of 685,000 average kilowatts for this year. 'With respect to 1984-1985 and 1985-1986, the 1975 Forecast indicated that there would also be a surplus of resources to meet loads without reserves if all_ units were completed in accordance with the milestone schedule. The 1976 Forecast shows deficiencies of 525,000 and.31,000 average kilowatts, respectively, for these years.

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The comparison of the 1976 Forecast with the 1975 Forecast reveals that while certain generating facili-ties planned or under construction at the time of the issu-ance of the 1975 rorecast have been advanced by one to nine months in schedule, many more have been delayed, some up to three years (see Table on p. 5). Accordingly, energy from these facilities for which credit was taken for a given year in the 1975 Forecast will not be available during the time

, frames previously anticipated. Specifically, the changes in

- operating dates of major resources in the 1976 Forecast from those included in the 1975 Forecast ard shown in the following table:

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Changes in Hilestonc Operating Dates

  1. 1976 Forecast. Compared to 1975 Forecast

' Acceleration Capability - MW Years Months Plants With Advanced Operating Dates Colstrip 12 . . . . . 330 0 3 Jim Bridger #3 . . . . 500 0 9 0 1 #

WNP (2 . . . . . . . . 1,100 1,250 0 6 WNP #4 . . . . . . . .

Plants With Delayed Operating Dates Delay Years Months Trojan . . . . . . . . 1,130 0 5 Colstrip #3 . . . . . 700 1 0 Colstrip 34 . . . . . 700 1 0 Jim Bridger #4 . . . . 500 0 3 WNP #3 . . . . . . . . 1,240 1 0 WNP #5 . . . . . . . . 1,240 1 0 Boardman (Carty) . . . 500 0 2 '

Pebble Springs #1 . . 1,260 3 0 Pebble Springs #2 . . 1,260 3 0 Skagit #1 . .. . . . 1,288 0- 6 Skagit 92 . . . . . . 1,288 1 6 The changes in load estimates and resource schedules has resulted in a shift of energy surplus and de-ficiencies for the year 1983-1984 through 1985-1986 as shown in the following table:

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Surplus or' (Deficit) of Resources to Meet Loads - Excluding Reserves Average MN 1975 1976 - ,

Forecact Forecact )

4 1983-1984 . . . . . . 330 (685) -

1984-1985 . . . . . . 1,077 (525) 1985-1986 . . . . . . 1,634 (31)

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III. Conclusion s

The 1976 Forecast contains the most current information available relating to anticipated annual oncrgy loads and resources of the West Group Area through the mid-1980's. It is in the context of these anticipated energy

, loads and resources that the need for WNP-4 should be eval-uNted. As noted, the 1976 Forecast more than confirms the need for this nuclear facility in the time frame projected.

Indeed, relative to the forecasts contained in the 1975 Forecast, the need for WNP-4 is even more urgent.

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' ( ' Robert B. Gallup #

9 Subscribed and sworn to before me this 2nd day of August 1976.

J Notary Public in and for the '

State of Vlashing 'on ,

Residing at j a/w y 9 e

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