ML20070R043

Testimony of TE Potter on ASLB Question 1.3 Re Cancer Fatalities Resulting from Early Phase Exposure to Release Category PWR-2

ML20070R043
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	01/24/1983
From:	Potter T CONSOLIDATED EDISON CO. OF NEW YORK, INC., POWER AUTHORITY OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK (NEW YORK
To:
Shared Package
ML20070R032	List: ML20070R027 ML20070R043 ML20070R063 ML20070R091
References
ISSUANCES-SP, NUDOCS 8301270256
Download: ML20070R043 (6)

Text

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00CHETED UBC

-UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR-REGULATORY COMMISSION '83 JAN 26 A10:49 ,

ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD,r, 7 n gg.

cit J fti'J & sf fawc; Before Administrative Judges: SPANCH James P. Gleason, Chairman Frederick J. Shon Dr. Oscar H. Paris

)

In1the Matter of )

)

CONSOLIDATED' EDISON COMPANY OF ) Docket Nos.

NDi YORK, INC. ) 50-247 SP

~(Indian Point, Unit No. 2) ) 50-286 SP

)

POWER AUTHORITY OF THE STATE OF- )

NEW YORK ) January 24, 1983

'(Indian Point, Unit No. 3) )

)

LICENGEES' TESTIMONY OF THOMAS E. POTTER ON BOARD OUESTION l'.'3 ATTORNEYS FILING THIS DOCUMENT:

Brent L..Brandenburg Charles Morgan, Jr.

Paul F. Colarulli CONSOLIDATED EDISON COMPANY Joseph J. Levin, Jr.

OF-NEW YORK, INC.

4_Irving Place MORGAN ASSOCIATES, CHARTERED New York, New York 10003 1899 L Street, N.W.

(212),460-4600 Washington, D.C. 20036 (202) 466-7000 a

' @30127025s gangg4 ,,

(DRADOCK 05000247 PDR .

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Y a Dr. Beyea's' testimony includes an estimate of large numbers of cancer fatalities rt ulting from early phase exposure in-the New York City area to a release similar to Reactoc' Safety Study's releare category PWR-2. The Indian Point release categories which dominate cancer fatality risk are 2 and 2RW. Other release categories are too low either in release quantity or release frequency to contribute to the-risk of radiological conditions postulated by Dr. Beyea and Mr. Palenik for the New York City. area.

.The probability of such releases causing the range of consequences claimed by Beyea and Palenik can be estimated from the IPPSS analyses. The mean frequencies of 2 and 2RW typeLrelease are f.4 x 10-7 per reactor year and 5.8 x 10-5 per reactor year for Indian Point 2 and 5.4 x 10-7 and 1.1 x 10-5 for Indian Point 3. Given such a release, the proba-bility of occurrence of the meteorological conditions required to distribute the material over the New York City frea'in the way characterized by Dr. Beyea as " average" is approximately 0.15-for release category 2, and 0.083 for release category 2RW. -Multiplying'the 2 and 2RW release frequencies by their appropriate meteorological proba-bilities and adding contributions from both Indian Point 2 and 3 resolts in a total frequency.of 5.5 x 10-6 per reactor year or once in 180,000 years for the " average" scenario.

(Because of the low frequency of rain the frequency for the

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precipitation scenario .would lue about a f actor of 10

~ 1ower.) The frequency of 5.5 x 10-6 per reactor year, for ,

the " average" scenario, corresponds to the low end of the

. range o f consequences calculated by Beyea and Palenik, 1,345 fatalities.

'I believe'that the higher estimates of Beyea and

- Palenik are much less:likely.because they are based on important conservative assumptions which when taken in combination lead to an unreasonable overestimate of risk.

1. The selection of a dose to health effect conversion factor of 500 cancer fatal-

~ities'per million man-rem is the upper bound of'the range of uncertainty expressed in a dissenting opinion to the 1980 BEIR. report, and is about a factor of three to:five times higher than the mid-range values supported by 21 of the

-23 Committee members. One of the two dissenters favored lower values than those adoptod.

2. About- two-thirds of the maximum number of cancer fatalities calculated by Beyea and Palenik result from exposure received in-the last three days of a four-day exposure period day. This shows that radioactive materials l- deposited on the ground are large con-l -tributors to do".e. (The plume passes l out of the region in a matter of hours.) The dose from ground deposition is highly sencitive to combined assump-( tions of exposure time and shielding factor -- the dose reduction afforded by structural material. The shielding factor assume by Beyea and Palenik, about equal to that assumed for normal activities in HASH-1400, would be appro-priate for a person who spends much of his time on the ground floor of a one-story.or two-story house and who spends a substantial amount of time outside unshielded. These conditions do not apply.to the New York City area where the shielding afforded by larger build-

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ings would be greater. Furthermore, it isslikely,that: doses would'be111mited by restricting. outdoor time since unshield-edidose' rates would exceed 0.5 rem per 1 ?hourcin the New York City. area on the -

' fourth (day. - of course,:other action.

.such:as decentamination or relocation:

would also-limit doses.

The effect of:the combined assumptions of high health effects conversion factor, long exposure period, and rela-tivelyfineffectiveishielding makes the: probability of the

+ Lhigher festimates calculated by Beyea and: Palenik far lower than_the 5.5 x-.10-6 per reactor year frequency for.the _

lowest estimat'e.

Beyea and Palenik4 also-calculate a large number of

. thyroid nodule cases for a relase scenario similar to-that

= described'above. ~In this case the risk-dominant release for  ;

the Indian: Point. plants is release category 2. Because the iodine release fraction for release category 2RW is lower than that for release category 2 by a factor.Lof 7, that-1 release does not lead to~ iodine radiological-conditions in l I New York City postulated. 'The probability of occurrence of the meteorological' conditions necessary-to'achive thyroid

-population' doses' equal to or greater than those calculated by Beyea.and Palenik is about 0.05, given the release. The t'

y :overall frequency of achieving the radiological conditions Beyea and Palenik' calculate is 5 x 10-8 per reactor year or

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~once in every 20,000,000 years for both plants combined.

The probability of the lowest number of thyroid nodules calculated.by Beyea and Palenik would be slightly lower than 5 x110-8 per reactor year and the likelihood of their I

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. highest. consequence estimates'in much. lower, because they_

. ese doseLto health effect conversion: factors that are too

' . high. ,Indeed,;thellimits of the.Beyea.and-Palenik uncer-i t'ainty rangelimitEJare greater-than the best estimate value from WASH-1400ibyLfact. ors lof 2 to 15.1 The WASH-1400 dos'e

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.' _tolhealth effect. effects conversion factor.is-consistent

< - with:the best-estimate value in the 1980.BEIR' report.

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This assessment._is based on IPPSS point estinate

- release category' characteristics and consequence analysis results with mean_ release frequencies. Section III of the l licensee response to-Commission Question.1 presents risk

. cur'ven'for cancer.. fatalities and thyroid cancer cases in a

- way that reflects' uncertainties.in the IPPSS analyses.

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(Non-cancerous nodules

can be estimated by multiplying the

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thyroid cancer risk by 1.5.)

It is important to note that

' uncertainties-in release magnitude are important to these f

- 1. . Beyea and'Palenik give airange for~the ago-weighted

' factor <fer thyroid nodule' incidence in Table 2 Eof his

-testimony es 200-1500 nodule' cases /per million' person rem and'also lists a value of 330 per million person rem from WASH-1400. 'The.latter factor he describes in footnote'"e"

~.as7weightedfto incorporate the. reduced effectiveness of

. iodine-131 in . causing - thyroid nodules 'and cancer, and ' refers to'the appropriate'section.cf WASH-1400. However, that

= section"does not suggest that the f actor is so we ighted. It

-indicates thatithe iodine-131 does is reduced by a factor of 10'before. applying the health effects conversion factor.

For the release assumed by'Beyea and Palenik, the weighted thyroid _ dose (the dose calculated af ter reducing the iodine-

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131 component by a' factor of 10) is about a factor of 3 e lower than the thyroid dose. Thus, to incorporate the e iodine-131 weighting in the dose to health effect conversion

factor would. require the reduction by a factor of 3 from 330 to 110' thyroid' nodule cases per million person-rem. The

. weighted value is approximately a f actor of 2 below the .

lower bound.of the Beyea and Palenik range of uncertainty.

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conclusions. .The importancenis sh'own in the. testimony'on

' Commission: Question 1. presented by Drs.~Rodgers and Stratton b

which ah'ows'-fact;ds'~of ten reduction in~ cancer fatalities -

relative to. IPPSSf point- estimate results. The. testimony also cb:.us reduction ;f actors of . 47 and 7 for iodine release fractionsLfrom release categories 2-and new respectively.

Thyroid nodules would be reduced by this sameJfactor.

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