ML17138B412

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Study Rept for Susquehanna Steam Electric Station Mass Notification & Evacuation, Part 1
ML17138B412
Person / Time
Site: Susquehanna  Talen Energy icon.png
Issue date: 07/17/1980
From:
PLANNING RESEARCH CORP.
To:
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ML17138B413 List:
References
NUDOCS 8007220448
Download: ML17138B412 (120)


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Study Report for the SUSQIUEIHIANNA SYEAM EILECl IRIIC STATIIGN MASS NGTIIIFIICTIIGNAND EVACUATIIGN PART I IO 'Prepared for the PENNSYLVANIAPOWER AND LICHT CO.

I Under subcontract to N US CORPORATION Alan M. Voorhees 8c Associates A Division of PRC Planning K Economics 80 0 722.p gQKq

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SUSQUEHANNA STEAM ELECTRIC STATION MASS NOTIFICATION AND EVACUATION Study Report Prepared for PENNSYLVANIAPOWER AND LIGHT CO.

under subcontract to NUS CORPORATION by ALAN M. VOORHEES 8K ASSOCIATES A DIVISION OF PRC PLANNING AND ECONOMICS

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Part One EVACUATION

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TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables 111 LlSt Of EXhlb1'tS ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

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~Cha taa ~Pa e I INTRODUCTION.

AREA CHARACTERISTICS 2 Bridge Crossings . 2 Mountain Ridges . 4 Climatic Conditions . 5 III DESIGNATED EVACUATION AREA ~ ~ 8 Ten-Mile Area 8 Five-Mile Area 10 AREA POPULATION '15 Non-Car-Owning Population 19 School 'nrollment 22 Households with Working Parents 24 Autos Available in the Evacuation Area 24 V. EVACUATION ROUTES. 26 Reception Centers 26 Road System and Traffic Operations 27'2 Traffic Control Points VI EVACUATIONCONCEPTS OF OPERATION 35 Implementing Agency Action Steps 35 Action Steps by the Car-Owning Population 37 Action Steps by the Non-Car-Owning Population "

42 Adverse Weather Conditions 50 Evacuation Time Estimates Summary . 53

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LIST OF TABLES Number ~Pa e Municipalities Within or Partially Within Ten-Mile Radius from the Susquehanna SES .

Portions of Municipalities Within the Designated Evacua-t ion Ar Area ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 12 Municipalities Totally Within the Designated Evacuation Area 12 Municipalities Totally or Partially Within the Designated Intermediate Evacuation Area . 13 I

1980 Population Within the Designated Evacuation Area 16 1980 Population Within 10-Mile Area . 17 1980 Population Within the Designated Intermediate Evacuation Area . 18 Percentage of Non-Car-Owning Households 19 Area. Population in Non-Car-Owning Households Within the Designated Evacuation Area 20 10 Percentage of Car-Owning Households in Luzerne and Columbia Counties Percentages of Car-Owning Households in Urban Centers in Luzerne and Columbia Counties. 25 12 Estimated Maximum Hourly Traffic Load Points. 30 13 Estimated Maximum Hourly Traffic Load Points with Three Reception Centers in Luzerne County . 31 14 Percentage of Workers Leaving Place of Work Upon Re-ceipt of Information. 39 15 Percentage of Population Prepared to Evacuate Following Arrival of Household Workers 16 Number of Fire Stations in Urban Centers 42 17 Typical Times for Evacuation by Bus from Berwick . 47 18 Students Transported to and from School by Bus in Three School Districts 49 111

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LIST OF EXHIBITS Number ~Pa e Major Topographic Features Wind Diagram Designated Total Evacuation Area.

Designated Intermediate Evacuation Area 14 Geographic Distribution of Estimated Non-Car Owning Population ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ 21 School Locations ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 23 Major Road System in the Area 28 8 ~ -

Traffic Control Point Locations 33 Time Estimates of Car-Owning Population Evacuation . 38 10 Time Estimates of Transport Dependent Population Evacuation 46

I L INTRODUCTION This report contains the results of Evacuation and Mass Notification studies con-ducted of the area surrounding the Susquehanna Steam Electric Station located near Berwick in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania. Although there exists a strong interrelationship between the component elements of the two studies, their results are presented as two separate parts within this document for ease of reference, use and incorporation into other documents such as the overall area emergency re-sponse plan. Part 1 of the report contains the results of the Evacuation study, and Part 2 of the report contains the results of the Mass Notification study.

The objectives of the Evacuation study can be summarized as follows:

Evaluate the existing roads in the area relative to their capability to carry the traffic loads generated by an evacuation of all individuals from within the nominal 10-mile radius around the Susquehanna SES.

In coordination with local and State Emergency Management Agen-cies develop recommendations for the evacuation of the population from within the 10-mile radius.

Examine the feasibility of evacuating logical segments of the total

'rea, depending upon wind and other meteorological conditions.

The study results are reported in a format broadly comparable to the format of Annex A-Evacuation, in the County Fixed Nuclear Facility Incident Response Plan Guide issued by the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA), July 1979.

Chapters II, III and IV in this report provide descriptions of the area's character-istics, the designations of the evacuation areas, and the identification of the area population, and in general these sections correspond with Chapter III of the above noted PEMA Guide Annex A-Evacuation.

Chapters V and VI of this report describing the assessment of the road system, the traffic control requirements, and the concept of operations of the evacuation cor-respond with Chapter V of the referenced PEMA Guide Annex A-Evacuation.

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IL AREA CHARACTERISTICS The Susquehanna Steam Electric Station is situated adjacent to the Susquehanna River in Salem Township in the western part of Luzerne County. The area sur-rounding the facility is a sparsely-populated rural area with two small urbanized centers within a 10-ten mile radius area. The Borough of Berwick, with a popu-lation of 12,274, is situated five miles west of the facility in Columbia County; and the City of Nantocoke, with a population of 13,250, is situated ten miles east of the facility in Luzerne County.

The major topographic features of the area are the Susquehanna River and several mountain ridges. Both the river and the ridges are aligned in a generally southwest to northeast direction. These land features are illustrated in Exhibit 1.

Both the mountain ridges and the river have impacted the area's land development.

Population concentrations have occurred in the Susquehanna River valley and in the valleys of its tributary waterways. The supporting roadway network to provide the area with local land access and intraregional mobility is substantially impacted Qy t

the topographic features. The density and quality of roads, aligned in a generally north-south direction across the mountain ridges and the river, are significantly lower than the road facilities available in a generally east-west direction.

BRIDGE CROSSINGS The Susquehanna River presents a major area mobility barrier with only six road bridges along a 30-mile section from west of Berwick to Nanticoke. These bridges are situated near the following communities:

Near Mifflinville between Bloomsburg and Berwick. One bridge carries Interstate 80 across the Susquehanna River, and the second bridge provides local access between Mifflinville and U.S. Route 11.

At Berwick carrying State Route PA 93.

At Shickshinny, carrying State Route PA 239.

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e Between Schickshinny and Nanticoke a bridge provides local access to the Retreat State Hospital.

o At Nanticoke a bridge carries a major raod link between U.S.

Route 11 and I-81.

During tropical storm Agnes in 1972, the roadways leading to three of those bridges became impassible. Bridge access points with a 1 in 100 chance on the average of 1,2 being inundated during any year include the following locations:

U.S. Route 11 in West Nanticoke, approximately one-half mile west of the river bridge at Nanticoke.

2. The access road to the Retreat State Hospital on the south side of the bridge.
3. U.S. Route 11 in Shickshinny east of the river bridge at Shickshinny.

A major flood condition in the area is likely to make U.S. Route 11 impassible.'his roadway is the only major travel facility north of the river and east of Ber-wlcko MOUNTAIN RIDGES The area's most dominant mountain ridges include:

The Huntington, Lee and Shickshinny ridge on the north side and parallel to the Susquehanna River.

The Penobscot Mountain extending from Mocanacqua (south of the river from Shickshinny) towards Wilkes Barre.

0 The Nescopeck ridge extending throughout the area on the south side of the river.

~ Buck Mountain and Little Sugarloaf Mountain west of Hazleton.

Susquehanna River Flood Plain Delineation Maps. Corps of Engineers, Department'f the Army, March 1974.

2 Maps of Flood Prone Areas. U.S. Geological Survey.

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The area's road system traverses these ridges generally at natural gaps and adjacent to tributary waterways to the Susquehanna River. Major north-south roadway crossings of the mountain ridges exist at the following locations:

1 e State Route PA 487 west of Huntington mountain.

State Route PA 239 at Shickshinny through a gap be tween the Huntington and Shickshinnv mountain.

'Interstate 80 through the Nescopeck mountain ridge in Black Creek Township.

State Route PA 309 through the Nescopeck ridge east of Inter-state 81 in Butler Township.

A number of other roadways cross the ridges but generally contain long, steep "gradients and. sharp, horizontal curves. Examples of such roads are, PA 93 crossing the Nescopeck ridge south of the river, and a secondary roadway crossing the Huntington ridge north of Berwick.

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CLIMATICCONDITIONS During the summer, the area experiences generally hot humid weather. During'the winter months, there is considerable snowfall. In the late Fall and early Spring, freezing rain occurs.

The adverse impact of snow and ice on the region's roads is effectively countered by roadway winter maintenance services provided at all levels of government. All main highways and. important secondary roads in the area are maintained by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. Local access roads are maintained by County and local Municipal Public Works Departments.

C In general, the quality of winter road maintenance by the various governmental units allows for uninterrupted regional mobility by car. Localized hazardous travel conditions occur depending on snowfall, icing and snow drifting. Some of the local township roads may occasionally become impassible for a few hours or a day. A hazard-prone'condition on the main road system exists on the Interstate system

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near Hazleton where icing conditions necessitate closing the Interstate for periods 1

-up to 16 hours1.851852e-4 days <br />0.00444 hours <br />2.645503e-5 weeks <br />6.088e-6 months <br />.

The prevailing winds in eastern Pennsylvania tend to be from the west, with sum-mer winds more predominantly from the southwest, and winter winds pre-dominantly from the northwest. Extensive variations in wind directions, however, exist at specific locations. As illustrated in Exhibit Z at the site of the Susque-hanna SES, the annual wind frequency distribution exhibits a highly variable direction pattern. There are no area sectors that have a significantly higher probability than an average chance of being situ'ated downwind during an emer-gency event at the facility.

1 Discussions with representations of Pensylvania Department of Transportation and State Police.

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NNW 15%

NW 10%

5% ENE WNW gW ~

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ES SW SE

'SSW SSE S

LEGEND:

0 1.5 1:5 5.0 )5 Meters Per Second

'ource: II Susquehanna Steam Electric Station Emergency Plan Exhibit 2. Wind Diagram

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IIL DESIGNATED EVACUATION AREA Federal and state guidelines for emergency response plan development for fixed nuclear facilities recommend a protective action area around the facility of up to a 10-mile radius to protect .the population against direct radiation exposure, and a protective action area of the food chain of up to a 50-mile radius.

TEN-MILE AREA To define the up to 10-mile radius evacuation area at the Susquehanna SES, the following criteria were established:

The designated area must encompass as a minimum the recommended 10-mile radius area as specified in the Federal and state guidelines.

20 The designated area must be concisely identifiable and readily com-prehensible to allow for effective public broadcasting of information and guidance during an emergency event requiring area evacuation.

30 The perimeter of the designated area must avoid major irregularities to maintain rationality and credibility of the designated area, while avoiding an imposition of potential evacuation of major population groups well beyond the 10-mile radius.

The municipalities wholly'r partially within an actual 10-mile radius area are'isted in Table 1.

The simplest and most effective means of identifying the designated evacuation area for use in the transmittal of information and instructions to the area popu-lation is through the use of local municipality names, either names of cities, boroughs, villages or townships. The inclusion of the total areas of the munici-palities partially within the 10-mile radius is not desirable in all instances for the following reasons:

1. The inclusion of the entire area of large townships, such as Ross and

'Hazle Townships, that have only a small segment of their munici-

. pality in the 10-mile radius may impose unnecessary inconvenience, cost and hardship on relatively large population groups. For example,

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TABLE 1. MUNICIPALITIESWITHIN OR PARTIALLYWITHIN TEN-MILE RADIUS FROM THE SUSQUEHANNA SES Munici alit Ten-Mile Radius A. Luzerne County Cities and Borou hs Nanticoke City 0 Conyngham Borough X Nuangola 0 New Columbus 0 Nescopeck X Shickshinny X

~Towoshi s Black Creek Township 0 Butler 0 Conyngham X Dorrance 0 Hazle Hollenback X Hunlock 0 Huntington 0 Nescopeck X Newport X Rice 0 Ross 0 Salem X Slo curn X Sugar loaf X Union 0 B. Columbia County Cities and Borou hs Berwick Borough X Briar Creek Borough X

~Towoshi s Beaver Township 0 Benton 0 Briar Creek X Fishing Creek 0 North Centre 0 Mifflin 0 South Centre 0 KEY: 0 = Partially within the minimum preventive action areas X= Totally within the minimum preventive action areas

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in Hazle Township the 10-mile radius comprises a largely uninhabited area between Bush Mountain and Little Sugarloaf Mountain.

Presently there is only one dwelling unit in this area that lies within the 10-mile limit. The inclusion of the entire Township of Hazle and the City of Hazleton would impose a potential evacuation condition on about 38,000 persons situated well beyond ten miles of the facility.

2. The highly irregular boundary conditions of the designated evacuation area resulting from the inclusion in their entirety of all munici-palities impacted by the 10-ten mile radius may lead to evacuations of relatively large population groups at distances from the nuclear facility that are substantially and unreasonably greater than dis-tances for populations in adjacent municipalities that are not within the suggested preventive action area. For example, in Ross Township the 10-ten mile radius criteria impacts about ten dwelling units south of Bloomingdale. The inclusion of the entire Township of Ross would place populations at twenty miles distance from the facility on an evacuation alert while people in neighboring townships closer to the facility would not be impacted.

To a ssure that the area designated for evacuation'encompasses, as a minimum, the Fed eral and state suggested 10-mile radius area, and to assure that the designated area has a reasonable and credible boundary without significant loss of effec-tive ness in providing information and guidance to the impacted population, it is reco mmended that the preventive action area be comprised of 26 municipalities in their'entirety and five municipalities only partially, as illustrated in Exhibit 3. The impacted areas of the five municipalities only partially within the designated evacuation area can be effectively identified either through local place. names or locally well-known topographical features as summarized in Table 2. The 26 municipalities designated for total evacuation within the nominal 10-mile area are listed in Table.3. 4 FIVE-MILE AREA In view of the variable wind conditions in the vicinity of the Susquehanna SES, as noted earlier, the selection of area sectors downwind from the prevailing wind direction for selective area evacuation appears inappropriate. The probability of a specified sector area to be downwind of the facility during an emergency event is not substantially greater than would exist in the case of random chance, Selective evacuation of an area surrounding the facility but at an intermediate distance 10

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TABLE 2. PORTIONS OF MUNICIPALITIESWITHIN THE DESIGNATED EVACUATION AREA Munici alit Area Within the Desi nated Evacuation Area Fishing Creek, Township The area east of Fishing Creek and east of the Borough of Stillwater.

Ross Township The area south of Bloomingdale between Huntington and Union Township.

Rice Township The area west of Interstate 81.

Hazle Township The area north of Little Sugarloaf Mountain adjacent to Sugarloaf Township.

TABLE 3. MUNICIPALITIESTOTALLYWITHIN

~ THE DESIGNATED EVACUATION AREA A. Luzerne Count B. Columbia Count

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Cities Nanticoke Boroughs Ber wick Beaver Boroughs 'onyngham Briar Creek Nuangola North Centre New Columbus Mifflin Nescopeck South Center Shickshinny Townships Black Creek Butler Conyngham Dorrance Hollenback Hunlock Huntington Nescopeck Newport

~ Salem Slo curn Sugarloaf Union 12

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range from the ten-miles provides for protective action within the immediate vicinity of the facility without the need of imposing evacuation hardships and cost on the entire area population in the event that emergency conditions do not warrant total area evacuation. The proposed actual boundaries of such an inter-mediate evacuation a'rea have been designated using the criteria that were applied in establishing the boundaries for the nominal 10-mile area. The designated inter-mediate area is shown in Exhibit 4. The municipalities totally and partially within the designated intermediate area are listed in Table 4.

TABLE 4. MUNICIPALITIESTOTALLYOR PARTIALLY WITHIN THE DESIGNATED INTERMEDIATE EVACUATION AREA Totally Within Partially Within Desi nated Area Desi nated Area A. Luzerne County

~Borou hs Iy Nescopeck Shickshinny

~Townshi s Conyngham Dorrance Hollenback Nescopeck Salem Slo curn Union B. Columbia County

~Borou hs Berwick

~Townshi s Briar Creek

5 IV. AREA POPULATION Within the designated evacuation area, representing a nominal 10-mile radius area from the facility, approximately one-half of the population resides in cities and 1

'boroughs, and the other half resides in rural township areas. The total 1970 population in the designated area is 68,917. The total 1970 population within the limits of an actual 10-mile radius from the facility is 52,562.

The 1980 populations for the area were estimated using the 1970 U.S. Census data and population projections prepared by the Luzerne and Columbia County Planning Commissions. The estimated 1980 populations by subareas for both the designated evacuation area 'and the actual 10-mile radius area are listed in Tables 5 and 6, respectively.

The 1980 total population within the actual radius of ten miles is 53,255, whereas the 1980 total population within the designated area is 73,827. This difference of about 20,000 persons between the two area definitions is due primarily to the inclusion of the City of Nanticoke in the designated area and accounts for 13,000.

of the above-noted difference. The geographic portion of the City of Nanticoke within the actual 10-mile radius is very sparsely populated. 'Ihe separation of this segment of the city in a concise and readily comprehensible manner is difficult, and it was therefore considered prudent to include the entire City of Nanticoke within the designated evacuation area.

Within the intermediate nominal 5-mile radius area around the nuclear facility the estimated 1980 population is 26,907 percent. 'Ihe populations by municipality within the designated 5-mile radius area are listed in Table 7. The 1980 population within an actual 5-mile radius is estimated to be about 12,000. The difference between

..the actual and nominal 5-mile radius areas is attributable to the inclusion of the urban center of Berwick and the entire Township of Briar Creek within the desig-1 Source: U.S. Census, 1970.

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TABLE 5. '1980 POPULATION WITHIN THE DESIGNATED EVACUATION AREA LUZERNE COUNTY Cities and Borou hs Nanticoke 13,250 Conyngham 2,185 Nuangola 558 New Columbus 215 Nescopeck 1,960 Shickshinny 1 290 195458 19,458

~Townshi s Black Creek 2,060 Butler 5,390 Conyngham 1,810 Dorr ance 1,760 Hazle 5 Hollenback 930 Hunlock 2,315 Huntington 1,905 Nescopeck 840 Newport 5,665 Rice 60 Ross 45 Salem 4,930 Slo curn 1,040 Sugarloaf Z,695 Union 1,867 33,317 Luzerne Subtotal 52 775 COLUMBIA COUNTY Cities and Borou hs Berwick 12,274 Briar Creek 520 1Z,794

~Townshi s Beaver 757 Benton 10 Briar Creek 2,433 Fishing Creek 512 North Centre 862 Mifflin 1,942 South Centre 1,742 8,258 Columbia Subtotal 21 052 Total 73 827 16

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TABLE 6. 1980 POPULATION WITHIN 10-MILE AREA LUZERNE COUNTY Cities 4 Borou hs Nanticoke 423 Conyngham 2,185 Nuangola 558 New Columbus 215 Nescopeck 1,960 Shickshinny 1 290 Subtotal 6,631

~Townshi s Black Creek 1,042 Butler 3,498 Conyngham 1,810 Dorrance 1,760 Hazle 5 Hollenback ~

930 Hunlock 1,981 Huntington 1,455 Nescopeck 840 Newport 5,665 Rice 60 Ross 45 Salem 4,930 Slo curn 1,040 Sugarloaf 2,695 Union 1 163 Luzerne Subtotal Z8,919 Total 35,550 COLUMBIA COUNTY

'ities 82 Borou hs Berwick 12,274 Briar Creek 520 Subtotal 12,794

~Townsin s Beaver 107 Benton 10 Briar Creek 2,433 Fishing Creek 512 North Centre 186 Mifflin 1,550 South Centre 113 Columbia Subtotal 17 705 Total 53,Z55 17

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TABLE 7. 1980 POPULATION WITHIN THE DESIGNATED INTERMEDIATE EVACUATION AREA Munici alit 1980 Po ulation LUZERNE COUNTY

~Boron hs Nescopeck 1,960 Shickshinny 1,290

~Townshi s Conyngham 1,810 Hollenback 930 Nescopeck 840 Salem 4,930 Slocum 440 Luzerne Subtotal 12,200 COLUMBIA COUNTY

~Boron hs Ber wick 12,274

~Townshi s Briar Creek 3 433 Columbia Subtotal 14,707 Total 26,907 18

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nated evacuation area. Only small segments of the Berwick urban center and Briar Creek Township are within the actual 5-mile radius, but the entire municipalities have been included within the designated intermediate area.

NON-CAR-OWNING POPULATION It is expected that a number of persons within the designated evacuation areas will not have automobiles available 'for leaving the area. An examination of the 1970 U.S. Census data indicates that the percentage of non-car-owning households varies substantially between the two counties and between urban and rural populations. A summary of the percentages of non-car-owning households in the area is provided in Table 8.

TABLE 8. PERCENTAGE OF NON-CAR-OWNING HOUSEHOLDS Luzerne Columbia Rural Area 9.2 8.2 Urban Areas 23.0 20.1 Borough'f Berwick 20.4 City of Nanticoke 28.0 By far the largest proportion of non-car-owning households are situated within urban areas. It is estimated that within the designated evacuation area, repre-senting the nominal 10-mile radius area, there are 8,135 people residing in non-car-.

owning households. Of this total,'about 60percent are located in Berwick and Nanticoke. The'stimated population in non-car-owning households by subareas is listed in Table 9. The geographic distribution of the transportationMependent population is shown in Exhibit 5. In estimating the non-car-owning population by subarea, the percentages noted in Table 8 were used to derive the number of non-t

'car-owning households. From survey data in other rural and urban areas it has been determined that the number of persons in non-car-owning households is consistently lower than in car-owning households. This characteristic has been accounted for'n estimating the total population in non-car-owning households.

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P TABLE 9. AREA POPULATION IN NON-CAR-OWNING HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN THE DESIGNATED EVACUATION AREA LUZERNE COUNTY Cities 5 Borou hs Nan ticoke 3,165 Conyngham 140 Nuangola 75 New Columbus 14 Nescopeck 140 Shickshinny 90

~Towoshi s Black Creek 136 Butler 310 Conyngham 163 Corrance 108 Hazle Hollenback 54

'unlock 154 Huntington 130 Nescopeck 57 Newport 417 Rice Ross Salem 327 Slo curn 76 Sugarloaf 154 Union 119 Subtotal Luzerne County 5,829 COLUMBIA COUNTY Cities 5 Borou hs Berwick 1,759 Briar Creek 71

~Townshi s Beaver 45 Benton Briar Creek 137 Fishing Creek 36 North Centre 50 Mifflin 107 South Centre 101 Subtotal Columbia County E 306 Total 8, 135 20

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Within the urban centres of Berwick and Nanticoke a large proportion of the normal daily tripmaking by persons from non-car-owning households is made on .

foot or with available public transportation facilities. In addition, there exist social service agencies that provide transportation services to select population <<

subgroups in both urban and rural areas. In many instances, however, the non-car-owning population is provided with. transportation by friends and relatives. The extent to which this occurs cannot be readily identified. In areas with a highly transient population,'he probability that persons from non-car-owning households can be supported in their transportation needs by relatives will be significantly lower than in areas with a high native population, i.e., people born in the area in which they reside today. For example, in large urban areas the native population

.(people born in the state of residence) is in the order of 75 percent, whereas in Luzerne and Columbia Counties comparable figures are in the order of 90 percent.

These numbers indicate the high likelihood that people in Luzerne and Columbia Counties are residing in areas that are proximate to relatives. To the extent that this exists in fact, a substantial proportion of the non-car-owning population may be supplied with transportation by relatives in the event of an evacuation.

i@ SCHOOL ENROLLMENT Within the designated evacuation area there are 33 schools including vocational institutions, university campuses and parochial schools. 'Ihe locations of schools in'he area are identified in Exhibit 6.

The total student enrollment within the evacuation area is 18,935. Of this total approximately'73 percent are in elementary and high schools, and the balance are enrolled in vocational institutions, colleges, and universities.

As would be expected in a generally rural area, approximately two-thirds of the

'- school students are provided with school bus transportation. 'Ihe school bus fleet comprises both vehicles owned and operated by the school districts, and vehicles and driver services owned and operated by independent operators under contract to the school boards.

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During winter storm emergency conditions that have warranted unexpected school closures, experience has shown that the mobilization time of the school bus fleet requires about lYi hours. Recognizing that the school drivers are generally people engaged in'other work activities during the day (most drivers are farmers, house-wives, etc.), mobilization of the school bus fleet in a shorter time period cannot realistically be expected, except for those school bus service contractors whose drivers work on the contractor's premises during the day.

HOUSEHOLDS WITH WORKING PARENTS Any emergency situation such as unexpected school closures involving the return of school children home before the end of the normal school day poses problems and concerns for children being possibly unattended several hours of the day when parents are not at home.

An order of magnitude estimate of the population of school children from house-holds with working mothers has been derived from the 1970 U.S. Census data.

Premised on an even distribution of school age children in households with a working mother and in households with a non-working mother, it is estimated that about 9 percent of the school students between ages 6 and 17 years in Columbia County come from households with both parents working. In Luzerne County, the comparable percentage figure is 11 percent.

AUTOS AVAILABLEIN THE EVACUATION AREA The auto availability in the evacuation area has been estimated from 1970 U.S.

Census data. The percentages of households with one, two or more cars for Luzerne and Columbia Counties as summarized in Tables 10 and 11.

It is estimated that the total available car fleet within the designated evacuation area consists of about 33,000 cars. Approximately 82 percent of the automobile 24

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TABLE 10. PERCENTAGE OF CAR-OWNING HOUSEHOLDS IN LUZERNE AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES Columbia Luzerne Count Count Total Rural Total Rural

~Count Area C~ount Area One-car households 52.2 50.3 51.8 51.2 Two-car households 29.2 34.6 '23.6 31.3 Three or more car households 5.1 6.8 4.3 8.1 Non-car-owning households 13.5 8.3 20.3 9,4 TABLE 11. PERCENTAGES OF CAR-OWNING HOUSEHOLDS IN URBAN CENTERS IN LUZERNE AND COLUMBIACOUNTIES Nanticoke Ber wick One car-households 50.1 53.5 Two-car households 18.3 22 5 Three or more car households 3.6 3.6 Non-car-owning households 28.0 20.4 1

fleet is used daily for trips to work. Excluding people walking to work and those that work at home, about,94 percent of the area work force is estimated to travel to work either as an auto driver or an auto passenger.

1 It can be expected, there-fore, that the majority of the area's auto fleet will be away from home during normal working hours of the day.

1 Derived from 1970 U.S. Census Journey to Work Reports.

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V. EVACUATION ROUTES RECEPTION CENTERS The designated evacuation area encompasses municipalities situated in both Columbia and Luzerne Counties. Both counties have established evacuee reception areas for those persons seeking assistance and public shelter after leaving their home. Two primary reception centers have been designated. In Columbia county, the Fairgrounds in Bloomsburg west of the designated evacuation area is the pri-mary reception center. During major flood conditions the Fairgrounds area may become inaccessible and in such an event the secondary reception center at the College and General Hospital in Bloomsburg would be activated. Since both recep-tion centers are located in the Bloomsburg area the use of one or the other recep-tion center would not impact the expected routing patterns of persons traveling from the evacuation area to the center.

In Luzerne County, the primary reception center is the Pocono Downs race track area just east of Wilkes-Barre. Potential problems of inaccessiblity of this recep-tion area exist under the following conditions:

In the event of a major flood, the bridges across the Susquehanna in Luzerne County area of the evacuation area may become inaccessible and thus prevent persons from north of the river to reach the Pocono Downs reception center.

In the event of extensive icing on the Interstate system northwest of Hazelton the travel from the southern townships in the evacuation areas to Pocono Downs would be impeded, although not totally pre-cluded because of available alternate secondary roads in the area.

Secondary reception centers have been established in Luzerne County to assure evacuee accessibilty to such centers in the event of flood or icing conditions. To accomodate the populations in the northeast sector of the evacuation area a cen-ter is provided at the Dallas Junior High School in Dallas Township, and this avoids the need for evacuees to cross the Susquehan'na River. An additional reception center is provided at Laurel Mall on Route 309 in Hazleton to allow a diversion of evacuees from the southern townships of the evacuation area around any potential problem on the Interstate to this reception. center.

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The locations of the secondary reception centers in Luzerne County will generate different travel patterns than would be the case if all evacuees are destined to Pocono Downs. With the secondary centers activated there would be a greater dispersion of traffic on a larger number of routes as opposed to funnelling most traffic on one or two roads leading to Pocono Downs.

In Luzerne County it would therefore be desirable to operate all three of the reception centers to facilitate traffic flow, regardless of floods or icing conditions.

I ROAD SYSTEM AND TRAFFIC OPERATIONS The major travel. facilities in the area are the Interstate routes and the numbered U.S. and State routes. The number of such routes within the area is rather limited and comprises only the following:

Interstate 80 which runs east-west through the southern half of the evacuation area.

"Interstate 81 which runs north-easterly along the eastern perimeter of the designated area.

U.S. Route 11 is located. north of and parallel to the Susquehanna River.

State Route 93 which runs from Bloomsburg to'Berwick and then to Hazleton.

o 'State Route 487 which runs north-south along the western limits of the designated area.

The key facilities that will be subjected to major traffic concentrations under an evacuation condition are U.S. Route 11, portions of State Route 93, and Inter-state 80. The area's regional road system is illustrated in Exhibit 7.

To assess the adequacy of the road system an analysis was conducted to determine the maximum possible traffic likely to be generated'during an evacuation. The assumptions or conditions that would generate the maximum load are summarized below:

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All available automobiles in the area (estimated to be about 29,000) would be used during the evacuation, even though it is unlikely that all autos in multi-car households would be used and even though all cars will not be mechanically fit for use.

20 All evacuees are destined to the two primary reception centers, i.e.,

the Fairgrounds in Bloomsburg and the Pocono Downs near Wilkes-

,Barre, even though experience in previous evacuations in the area have shown that only about half of the evacuees go to the reception centers. The remainder go to nearby homes of friends and relatives.

30 The division of the evacuation area relative to the ultimate reception center destination of the area evacuees was made along the county boundary between Columbia and Luzerne with the exception of Nes-copeck, Black Creek, and Salem townships. Populations from the lat-ter townships would more logically evacuate towards Bloomsburg in Columbia County.

Alterations to the normal traffic operations on the area roads were examined to evaluate the potential increase in road capacities that might be generated. Three basic alternatives of traffic operations were considered:

1. Maintain normal traffic operating conditions, supplemented by police officer control at-key roadway junctions.

2o Suspend the operations of the existing traffic signal controllers at all intersections, except major roadway junctions, to reduce travel im-pedance on the major roadways.

30 In conjuction with Alternative 2, revert selected routes to one-way outbound traffic operations.

'he primary considerations which have led to the adoption of the first alternative, maintenance of present operation, supplemented with police officer control, are summarized below:

The suspension of traffic signal control may create major travel con-flicts, especially in urban centers unless police officer control is pro-vided at all such locations. It should be noted that the actual traffic flow patterns that will develop may be significantly more diverse than the patterns that would be expected if the entire population, with no exceptions, was destined to two or three reception centers.

Both the suspension of traffic control and the one-way traffic opera-tions alternatives could have 'a significant adverse impact on the effi-

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ciency with which family units can be reassembled especially if the emergency event occurs on a normal workday, and workers are im-peded on their way home.

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o The reversion of normal two-way traffic operations to one-way oper-ations on selected roadways would need to involve one or more of the major travel facilities (such as Route 11) to be effective. These major travel routes, however, are also critical importance in gaining entry into the evacuation area by public transportation vehicles, school buses, ambulances, etc.

.With present traffic operations (i.e., two-way travel on the highway system) and with the traffic generation assumptions noted above, about 10,000 cars would be destined to the Columbia County reception center, and about 19,000 cars would be destined to the Pocono Downs reception center in Luzerne County.

With an expected evacuation time period of two hours as outlined in the subsequent chapter of this report, the maximum hourly traffic load points on the area road system would in some instances be substantially in excess of the available roadway capacity as shown in Table 12.

TABLE 12. ESTIMATED MAXIMUMHOURLY TRAFFIC LOAD POINTS Maximum Traffic Volume Estimated Demand in Available Location Outbound Direction ~Ca acit

'n U.S. 11 near I-80 2,600 3,000 west of Berwick On U.S. 11 in West 3,000 1,500 Nanticoke On I-81 at Wilkes- 7,500 3,600

'arre With the activation of the two secondary reception centers in Luzerne County, one

.near Dallas and one near Hazleton, a significant reorientation of traffic would take place. The distribution of evacuees between the reception centers is estimated to be as follows:

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Bloomsburg Fairgrounds 34%

Hazleton Laurel Mall 18%

Wilkes-Barre Pocono Downs 40%

Dallas Junior High School 8%

TABLE 13. ESTIMATED MAXIMUMHOURLY TRAFFIC LOAD POINTS WITH THREE RECEPTION CENTERS IN LUZERNE COUNTY Maximum Traffic Volume Estim at ed Demand in Available Location Outbound Direction ~Ca acit On U.S. 11 near I-80 2,600 3,000 west of Berwick On U.S. 11 in West 1,000 1,500 Nanticoke On I-81 at Wilkes- 3,800 3,600 Barre Other travel facilities such as State Route 93 and U.S. Route 309 in the Hazleton area would also be subject to major traffic volumes but within the capacity limits of these facilities. Similarly, some of the secondary but state-maintained facilities in the Union and Hunlock townships would be used more extensively to gain access to the Dallas reception center, but within capacity limits of these roads.

With three reception centers in Luzerne County and one in Columbia, the regional road system is adequate to carry the maximum expected traffic loads except at some locations near a reception center but well outside the 10-mile area, as for example on I-81 near the Pocono Downs Center.

.It is realistic to expect that traffic will be distributed over a larger number of travel facilities than assumed in the analysis in view of the fact that up to 50 per-cent of the evacuees may not be destined to a reception area. Since most of these evacuees will be destined to communities in which their relatives or close friends reside, it can be expected that in addition to using roads leading to the reception 31

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centers,-their travel orientations will lead them to use such facilities as 1-80, both west and east; I-81 south; and some of the secondary roads leading to neighboring townships. These facilities will be lightly used or not used at all by evacuees traveling to the reception centers.

To assign subarea populations to specific reception centers and to instruct evac-uees to use specific travel routes would lead to an extremely complex set of mess-ages to be broadcast during the evacuation and would involve the identification of population groups by area, instructions to proceed to a specified reception center, and instructions to use a specific set of roads. Numerous repetitive broadcasts would be required for all subarea populations. It is unlikely that such broadcasts would be comprehensible to or heeded by the population. Within the range of travel distances involved, the area population can be expected to have a high degree of familiarity with the road system.

Therefore the specific designation of evacaution routes is not a necessary require-ment for public information purposes but will be of importance to the agencies responsible for road maintenance so that available equipment and manpower can be concentrated on the primary evacuation routes during a winter snow storm.

In the event of flooding and the inaccessibility of the Susquehanna River bridges east of the facility, public broadcasts will be required to direct the populations from Huntington, Union and Humlock Townships, and from the borough of Shick-shinny to the reception center in Dallas. Such a condition would increase the share 'f evacuees destined to Dallas from 8 percent, as noted 'roportional earlier, to about 15 percent.

TRAFFIC CONTROL POINTS

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.The expected traffic load on the area road system will require police officer con-trol to assure an expeditious and orderly flow of traffic. A number of locations where police officer or traffic warden control is desirable or necessary have been identified and are shown in Exhibit 8. Officer or warden traffic control is war-ranted at such locations as noted below:

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All locations presently under traffic signal control to allow manual intervention of the signal's allocation of right-of-way All rural road junctions where collector-type rural roads enter a major evacuation route to provide necessary right-of-way assignment that allows the collector facility traffic to enter the main roadway All junctions of major evacuation routes not only within the desig-nated evacuation area but along the full length of the routes to the reception centers to provide effective right-of-way assignment At the ingress and egress points'of the reception areas to avoid major congestion at the reception areas A total of 33 traffic control locations in the rural areas have been identified to warrant traffic police or traffic wardens. It should be noted that this estimate. has been derived from the likely maximum traffic volumes expected on the system. In an actual evacuation event, a few of these locations would probably'perate effici-ently without officer or warden presence.

In addition to the police officer or traffic warden controls, traffic volumes at the junction of U.S. Route ll with I-80 and at the junction between I-81 and the spur linking U.S. Route 11 with I-81 just west of Wilkes-Barre, warrant physical lane use barriers to allow unimpeded access to the Interstate from the on-ramps. The lane controls may consist of standard construction detour signing that would restrict interstate traffic upstream of the interchange to the use of the left travel lane only and thus allow efficient entry into the righthand lane from the on-ramps.

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l VL EVACUATION- CONCEPT OF OPERATION IMPLEMENTING AGENCY ACTION STEPS The process of implementing the evacuation of the population within the desig-nated area in the event of an emergency condition at the Susquehanna SES is to comprise, as a minimum, the action elements summarily outlined below. The execution of these action steps will determine the expeditiousness and complete-ness of the area evacuation.

Notification1 The initial step in implementing the evacuation is the notification of the public within the designated evacuation area through the sounding of sirens indicating that an emergency condition exists and that the public is to turn to radio and television broadcasts for additional information and guidance. It may be desirable to supplement the general siren notification by separate telephone calls to major employers, hospitals, hotels, and motels.

Information Broadcasts Public information, guidance and instructions are to be issued to the local broad-casting stations. The broadcast information must comprise:

Notice to evacuate the area An enumeration of the municipalities whose populations must evacuate An enumeration of the reception areas for persons requiring public shelter Notice of the public transport facilities available and actions required by persons in need of such services A separate description of Notification is provided in Part II of this report.

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o Notice of any abnormal area roadway conditions (e.g., inaccessibility of bridges in the case of a major flood) and guidance information to use alternate roads and alternate reception areas Mobilization of School and Public Tran ortation The school bus fleet is to be mobilized in the event that evacuation occurs while children are still at school. This mobilization task will have two basic components:

(I) mobilization of the bus fleet normally available to a given school district, and (2) mobilization of additional school buses from adjacent districts.

The public transportation bus fleet is to be mobilized comprising both private con-tractors and public transport agencies.

Activation of Public Tran ortation Call-In Centers The telephone operators (either within each township or at the County Emergency Operations Center) will be mobilized to receive calls for public transport from persons in rural areas and will dispatch buses assigned to rural area collection.

Mobilization of Controllers at Urban Center Public Trans ort Collection Points Traffic,controllers will be dispatched to fire stations, designated as public trans-port collection centers, in all boroughs and cities to provide information to the public transport dependents and in orderly dispatching of buses.

Mobilization of Roadwa Traf fic Controllers The state and local police force will be assigned to designated potentially critical locations on the area roadway system to expedite traffic flow.

Mobilization of Wreckers Wreckers will be mobilized and assigned to selected key locations on the roadway system regardless of weather conditions. Additional wreckers will be on standby or may be deployed in the event that there is snow and ice on the area road system.

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ACTION STEPS BY THE CAR-OWNING POPULATION Public reaction to the evacuation notification and instructions is expected to result generally in the following action steps.

Assembl of Famil Unit During a daytime event, the area workers will receive the notification to evacuate at their place of work. Predicated on the assumption that the public information broadcast commences five minutes after the initiation of the evacuation notifi-cation, it is estimated that the entire area population will be apprised of the broadcast information within 45 minutes. An assumed rate at which the broadcast information is assimilated is depicted as Curve kl in Exhibit 9, and is summarized below.

Time in Minutes 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percentage of Population Warned by

.Broadcast 10 10 30 30 10 5 5 (Time 0 is initation of siren notification.)

In the event the assimilation of the broadest information is significantly slower than indicated above, the duration time of total evacuation would be extended by the additional time required to apprise everyone.

The rate at which area workers will leave their jobs to return home to prepare for evacuation will be quite variable, depending upon the particular work environment and upon the responsibility level of the worker. It is to be expected that a large

'proportion of the work force will be able to leave their jobs almost immediately, quite similar to a normal departure from work at the end of the workday. A number of workers, however, will require some job "close-down" time in work sit-uations; for example, those that involve machinery, construction equipment, or 37

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/Ir 100 90 /lr 80

.Population Receiving

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/ Auto-Owning Pop ulation i ..

Broadcast Information I I

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Lea ving Home

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70 80 Ql I I

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50 Workers I

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Departing ( Auto-Owning E

40 from Place of Work I

Workers I/ Population Evacuated O

Arriving

/ /

30 I~ at Home 20 I I ] j'/

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/ rr 0 5 1015 20 30 40 50 80 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 1 hr. 2 hrs. 3 hrs.

Time from Initiation of Notification Notification Information Broadcast Exhibit 9. Time Estimates of Car-Owning Population Evacuation.

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cash registers in retail sales establishments. In addition, supervisory employees, managers, and independent business operators w'ill generally require the greatest amount of time to secure their place of work and to assure that all employees and others on the premises have departed.

A time distribution of workers leaving their place of work has been assumed, ~

recognizing the above noted variations, and is illustrated 'in Exhibit 9 as Curve 42.

'Ihe assumed percentage of workers leaving their place of'work following receipt of the broadcasted information is shown in Table 14.

TABLE 14. PERCENTAGE OF WORKERS LEAVING PLACE OF WORK UPON RECEIPT OF INFORMATION Percentage Time after Receipt of of Workers Broadcast Information 50 10 minutes 30 15 minutes 10 20 minutes 30 minutes 45 minutes In the event that the actual worker departure times are later than shown in Table 14; the rate of area evacuation willbe proportionally slower.

The travel time of the employees from their place of work to home has been estimated on the basis of generalized journey-to-work travel time distributions.

The maximum" trip length for work journeys in the area is estimated to be about 20 miles, and the average trip length is estimated to be three miles. An average travel speed of 30 mph has been used in estimating the travel time home of the area workers. Ninety percent of the employees are expected to be at home approximately one hour following the initiation of the siren notification as illus-trated in Exhibit 9, Curve P3.

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Pre aration for Evacuation People can be expected to react differently to any emergency situation, and the conditions imposing an evacuation need on the area population are likely to generate great differences in the amount of time people will spend in preparing to leave their home. In order to estimate the overall evacuation time it has been necessary to attempt a prediction of time that will be needed prior to actual evacuation. The variations in this time will occur as a consequence of numerous factors.

Some of the more dominant factors include:

o Selecting basic necessities for those persons evacuating to public shelter areas as opposed to persons evacuating to homes of friends and relatives o Size of the family and number of children 0 Number of cars available o Securing animals on farms e Individual sense of urgency The predicted preparation times prior to evacuation, shown in Table 15, were derived from the following population categorizations:

at A small percentage of the area households are single-person households, and this segment of the population could be expected to be highly mobile and ready to leave in 15 minutes.

b. A larger proportion of the area residents may feel a high sense of urgency and be prepared to leave home within 30 minutes of the arrival time of the worker(s).

co The largest proportion of the area residents will require some time to pack some essentials, especially in house-holds with children, to decide on what to do with pets, to decide on auto usage in the case of multi-car households and, as a result, may'require 45 minutes to one hour fol-lowing assembly of the family members.

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d. A proportion of the area population involved in farming or in conducting a business at their home is likely to require the greatest amount of time, not only to prepare for individual family member needs but to secure equip-ment, livestock, etc., and as a consequence, their time needs may be well in excess of one hour.

TABLE 15. PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION PREPARED TO EVACUATE FOLLOWING ARRIVALOF HOUSEHOLD WORKERS Percentage Preparation Time Following the Po ulation Arrival of Worker 10 15 min 20 30 min 30 45 min 15 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> 15 1 br, 15 min 10 1 hr, 30 min Evacuation of Car-Ownin Po ulation The travel time required for the car-owning population to reach the perimeter of the designated evacuation areas is estimated on the basis of the geographical dis-tribution of the population and on the expected travel orientation to the designated reception centers. The rate of area evacuation of the car-owning population is shown in Exhibit 9, Curve @5.

Predicated upon the preceding assumptions and estimates, it can be expected that two-thirds of;the car-owning population will have evacuated at the end of two hours following initiation of emergency notification. Ninety percent will have evacuated in about two hours and thirty minutes, and total evacuation of car-owning households is expected to be complete in about three hours following initial emergency notification.

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ACTION STEPS BY THE NON-CAR-OWNING POPULATION As indicated in a previous chapter, the non-car-owning population in the area is estimated at 8,135 persons and of this total nearly 60 percent reside in the urban centers of Berwick and Nanticoke. In view of the fact that the area has a large native population (i.e., persons born in the State of Pennsylvania), it is realistic to expect that a substantial proportion of the non-car-owning population will be pro-vided with auto transportation by nearby relatives. For purposes of developing an evacuation program, however, it was assumed that little or no ridesharing would take place.

The. single most important element in providing time efficient evacuation by public transportation is the assembly of people at a limited number of designated places for pick-up by buses. Within the urban centers this can be accomplished readily by designating the local fire stations as assembly points. Within seven communities in the designated evacuation area, listed in Table 16, there are an adequate number of fire stations so the entire community population is within about one-half mile walking distance from a station. Sixty-five percent of the area's non-car-owning population resides in these seven communities.

TABLE 16. NUMBER OF FIRE STATIONS IN URBAN CENTERS Number of Urban Centers Fire stations Ber wick Conyngham Glen Lyon (in Newport Twp)

Mifflinville Nanticoke Nescopeck Shickshinny A similar procedure of assembly at fire stations or at a limited selection of other locations in the rural township area would impose unrealistic walking distances of several miles in hilly terrain. In view of the relatively low numbers of non-car-42

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owning households in the rural areas, it is proposed that these people be instructed to telephone and request bus transportation. As noted in the report section describing the area population, the number of public transport dependents in rural townships ranges from about 50 to 150 with the exception of Newport and Butler Townships. These population numbers represent about 20 to 60 non-car-owning households and therefore about 20 to 60 telephone requests for transportation assistance. This order of magnitude of telephone calls within a municipal juris-diction does not represent an impractical load on the telephone system.

There are, however, two basic options in the designation of telephone response centers to the requests for transportation assistance. One alternative would allocate this responsibility to the local municipality. The telephone response center would then logically be either at the municipal offices and would be manned by municipal employees (or persons assigned by the municipality), or the center would be at a designated rural fire station and manned similarly as above. Contact between all local telephone response centers and the County Emergency Operations Center would be required to arrange for appropriate dispatching of buses to effect the actual pickup of the public transportation dependents.

The advantages of this alternative are:

a0 The local municipality can designate the staff (or possibly volunteers) and provide municipal cars to ferry the transportation dependents to central bus pick up locations within the township.

b. The local staff are familiar with the area and this will be of major value in locating the people requesting assistance.

Co The use of a designated pickup point for the buses will allow multiple tripmaking by buses without imposing very long wait times on the users.

The second alternative would allocate the responsibility for manning a countywide telephone response center for requests for transportation at or under the direct jurisdiction of the County Emergency Operations Center. The advantages of this second alternative are:

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a1 The areawide bus mobilization coordinator function can be merged with the telephone response center and thus permit more effective distribution and dispatching of available vehicles.

b. In the public broadcast information only one telephone center needs to be mentioned and thus the broadcast message content and the public action requirements are simplified.

co There is a certainty of manpower availability at the Emergency Operations Center, which is situated outside the 10-mile area; such certainty does not exist at the local municipal level, especially those situated adjacent to the nuclear facility.

The action sequence, bus fleet requirements, and evacuation time estimates for area evacuation of public transport dependents from urban centers and rural areas, and the evacuation of school children are outlined in the following sections.

The evacuation of hospitals, nursing homes and the handicapped population have not been addresssed in this report in view of the existence of a regional health services support plan.

Urban Centers-Evacuation b Bus Experiences within the area in mobilizing school buses in response to emergency conditions (severe snow and ice storms) indicates a time lag of about one and a half hours between notification of the school bus contractor and bus arrivals at schools.

In view of the fact that most buses to be used in the general evacuation will need to be brought into the area from nearby cities (either from private contractors or public agencies), the mobilization and deployment time of these buses will be on the order of one and a half to two hours. In the event that local schools are not in session during an emergency condition at the nuclear facility the area school bus fleet could be used. For purposes of assessing evacuation time and fleet require-ments it has been assumed that schools are in session and school buses are not

'vailable for general evacuation purposes.

Recognizing the one and a half to two hour time lag from initial areawide notifi-cation of the emergency condition to the bus arrivals in the urban centers, it can

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be expected that ample time has elapsed for the non-car-owning population to prepare for departure from home. The preparation time for persons from non-car-owning households can generally be expected to be less than that required for people in car-owning households, because the former households tend to be small-size households (an approximate average of 2.15 persons per household) with on average fewer children. It is considered a conservative estimate therefore that the public transport dependents will be prepared to leave home at the same time as the carmwning population. The distribution over time of people departing from home to walk to the Sire station assembly points is shown in Exhibit 10, Curve 41.

The average walk time from persons'esidences in the urban centers to the fire stations is about 10 minutes, assuming an average pace of 4 feet per second. As can be noted in Exhibit 10, people can be expected to begin assembly at the fire stations about 30 minutes before the arrival of the first buses. During this 30 minutes a sufficient number of bus users can be expected to assemble to allow for near capacity bus loads.

In Berwick and Nanticoke, the two areas with concentrations of non-car-owning populations it is expected that each bus assigned to these respective areas can make two trips. Estimated bus travel times out of Berwick are shown in Table 17, This, timing pattern illustrates that the first contingent of buses can effectively turn back for a second bus load of passengers.

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100 90 r

80 r~

70

/ School

/'hildren /

~ 60 / Evacuated ~

Prepared to CL 50 Leave Home /

E 40 O

30 City of Bervvick 20 I Transit Depen-dents Evacuated 10 0

rr 0 5 1015 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 1 hr. 2 hrs. 3 hrs.

Time from Initiation of Notification Notification Information Broadcast Exhibit 10. Time Estimates of Transport Dependent Population Evacuation

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) TABLE 17. TYPICAL TIMES FOR EVACUATIONBY BUS FROM BERWICK Time 0 Emergency 'notification Bus fleet mobilization Time 1 hr Transport dependents begin to arrive at fire stations Time 1 hr, 30 min Buses begin to arrive at fire stations Time 1 hr, 40 min Loaded buses begin to depart for reception or mass care centers Time 1 hr, 50 min First buses are outside the 10-mile radius area Time 2hr, 10 min First buses unloaded at reception or mass care center Time 2 br, 30 min First buses arrive at fire stations for second time Time 2 hr, 35 min First buses depart from the fire stations for second outbound trip Time 2hr, 45 min Second trip buses are outside the 10-mile radius area.

To evacuate about 1,800 evacuees, from 'Berwick by bus is estimated to require

'I 18 buses (based on an average load of 50 passengers per bus) and can be accom-plished in less than two hours of evacuation time and can, therefore, be expected to be completed at about three hours and fifteen minutes following notification of the emergency condition. The expected rate of evacuation is illustrated in Exhi-bit 10.

Evacuation of the public transport dependents in Nanticoke and the other five smaller urban centers, identified earlier in Table 16, can be accomplished within the same time frame as noted for the Berwick area. A bus fleet of 28 vehicles is estimated to be required to eva'cuate about 3,200 public transport dependents from the City of Nanticoke. An additional five buses would be required for 'the remaining five smaller'urban centers.

If all of the urban area non-car-owning population must be transported by bus the total fleet requirement would thus be 51 vehicles.

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Rural Areas Evacuation b Bus Following notification of the necessity to evacuate the area, a public information broadcast must be directed to'the population in" the,.rural areas advising them of a I the need to telephone and request public transportation if required. Vehicles, will be dispatched to each township for the collection of transport dependents. If local municipalities assume the responsibility for bringing the transport dependents to a designated location (i.e., fire station) for pickup by buses and transport out of the area, then the procedure and time required for the ev'acuation will be generally the same as noted above for the urban centers.

f If, however, the buses are to make door-to-door pickups throughout the township, II the travel time of each bus is estimated to increase by about 60 to 90 minutes, which is the expected time required to 'travel through large portions of the township and make multiple stops. In this latter, case, driver unfamiliarity with the area may extend this time even more. i, II If Under the alternative involving local~municipalities in the assembly of transport dependents, the required bus fleet for the total rural area is about 20, and ll It V

evacuation times would be similar to those for urban areas.

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Under the alternative without pre-assembly of the transport dependents, the

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required bus fleet for the total rural area is estimated to be 40, and the time of total evacuation from initial emergency notification would exceed four hours.

At the onset of this section of the report it was noted that the evacuation of transport dependents was assessed on the basis that little or no ridesharing would

,,'I occur. The above noted bus fleet requirements are likely to represent maximum numbers. 'Ihe evacuation time, however, is not expected to be substantially

'...impacted by any reduction in the actual number of passengers transported.

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] School Student Evacuation It would generally be expected that the evacuation of students directly from their schools to areas outside the designated evacuation area will not be necessary in view of the likelihood that warnings of an imminent emergency at the nuclear facility would allow schools to close prior, to the development of an evacuation 4

condition. To provide for the contingency that a school evacuation may be required, an assessment of the resource requirements and likely evacuation time II has been made. i Within the evacuation area there are major variations in the proportion of students that are normally tranported to and from school by bus, with a range from about 49 percent in the Berwick Area',School District to in excess of 90 percent in the Greater Nanticoke School District," as illustrated in Table 18.

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TABLE 18. STUDENTS TRANSPORTED TO AND FROM SCHOOL BY BUS IN THREE SCHOOL DISTRICTS Student i Percentage School District Enrollment Trans orted B Bus Berwick Area 4614 49 Greater Nanticoke Area 3600 69 Northwest Area 1855 92 In all of these school districts some buses are used on multiple routes. The existing school bus fleet, therefore, is capable of evacuating in one trip a major proportion, but not all, of the students that arrive by bus. A substantial number of schools are situated near the perimeter of the evacuation area and thus an appropriate school evacuation procedure would involve a priority assignment of the available school bus fleet to schools situated nearest the nuclear facility. This would allow total I

evacuation of these schools immediately upon mobilization of the bus fleet.

Additional buses will need to be requested fr'om nearby school districts to com-mence evacuation of the schools situated nearer the perimeter of the evacuation area.

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The combined regular bus fleet used by the Berwick Area; Greater Nanticoke Area, and Northwest Area School Districts consists of about 100 buses. The vehicle capacities range from 36 passengers to 72 passengers. Based upon an average load capacity of 60 passengers, it is estimated that a bus fleet of 168 vehicles is re-quired to evacuate the students of the areas'hr'ee I main school districts. Thus

~ II there exists a fleet shortage of about 68 buses l that will need to mobilized from neighboring districts.

I I The school districts only partially within the evacuation area, such as the Central Columbia District, are expected to be able'o draw on their total fleet to evacuate

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those schools within the designated evacuation area.

The estimated evacuation time of the school students from the area is depicted in Exhibit 10, Curve 47. Total area evacuation of the school students can be ex-pected'to be. completed at about the end of three hours following the initial evacu-ation notification.

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In view of this time requirement and the fact that schools close generally between t

3 p.m. and 4 p.m., it appears that an attempt to evacuate school students after 1 p.m. on any given school day would not be effective because it would be unlikely that evacuation could be completed befo're'normal school closure. If an emergency notification to evacuate occurs between'2 noon and 1 p.m., it may be more effec-tive to return children to their homes for evacuation t as part of an assembled family unit.

ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS Severe inclement weather conditions may impact the evacuation time required to allow the area residents to travel beyond the nominal 10-mile radius from the

. power station. The following weather-r'elated conditions would impact the effici-1 ency of the area evacuation: 1 o Flooding of the Susquehanna River and consequent impassability of

'U.S. Route 11 in Shickshinny and West Nanticoke.

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D ~ 4 Severe icing conditions on Interstate Routes northwest of Hazleton and consequent temporary closure of the Interstate facilities.

A winter storm producing hazardous driving conditions on most area roads.

A major winter storm that may produce snow accumulations beyond the capabilities of the area's road maintenance resources and that could result in temporary impassability of some roadsections, espe-cially on secondary or local rural roads.

The expected evacuation time impacts of the above-noted conditions are sum-marized, in the following sections. The first three conditions noted tend to have a relatively small impact, whereas the fourth condition may result in a substantial increase in the total area evacuation time over the time required during normal weather conditions.

Flood Condition The elimination of U.S. Route ll as an evacuation h

route from Shickshinny eastward would impact the routing patterns for portions of the populations from Salem, Union, and Hunlock Townships and from the Borough of Shickshinny. Alternate routes leading north and northeasterly from these townships and from Shickshinny are available to accommodate the estimated volumes of auto traffic. Travel times for the impacted population groups, how'ever, would be greater than in the case of U.S. Route 11 being available because of some increase in travel distance and because of a reduction in overall travel speed. Assuming a route circuity that would double the normal distance from Shickshinny to the 10-mile perimeter and assuming an average travel speed of 15 mph to allow for roadway quality and traffic volumes, the evacuation travel time would increase by 25 to 30 minutes.

The impassability of U.S. Route 11 woqld also impact the efficient utilization of buses in the evacuation of the public transport dependents. Under normal roadway conditions, a portion of the bus fleet could be used for multiple tripmaking. Along the alternative routing, however, the increased travel time of Z5 to 30 minutes noted above would be added three times to the evacuation time of the transport dependents (to account for multiple trips) resulting in hn increase of l-l/4 to 1-1/Z

I, R

hours. In view of the fact that only the bus routings for Salem Township and the Borough of Shickshinny are impacted by the impassability of U.S. Route 11, a moderate increase of about four vehicles in the bus fleet used for evacuation would eliminate the need for multiple bus trips and would thus limit the overall evacu-ation time increase to 25 or 30 minutes.

It should be noted that less than 10 percent of the area population would be im-pacted by the travel time increases due to the flooding of U.S. Route ll. During a flood condition, the total area evacuation time is estimated to be about 3-3/4 It hours. H Interstate Route Icin Condition The icing condition that occasionally 'necessitates the closure of the Interstate route northwest of Hazleton is a limited local, condition in an area where travel by Hi area evacuees is expected to be relatively light. Alternative road facilities in the area are available to permit travel around the area that is prone to icing. Travel time increases, due to the circuity of the alternative routes and due to a reduction in travel speed, is estimated to be less than 15 minutes, and only a small proportion of the total area population would be impacted by this adverse condition.

Winter Time Hazardous Drivin Condition A winter snowstorm in the area can produce generally hazardous driving conditions, notwithstanding efficient winter road maintenance activities. Such hazardous con-ditions would reduce'he overall travel speed throughout the area and, depending upon the severity of the storm, could reduce speeds to an average of about 10 mph.

I With increased headways between vehicles, during hazardous conditions, the H

efficient utilization of available roadway capacity would be significantly impaired.

The time necessary for evacuation of the car-owning population from the time they commence leaving home under normal weather conditions until all are 'evacuated has been estimated at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 20 minutes as reflected in Exhibit 9 (see page 38). Under extremely hazardous travel conditions, this time estimate is ex-52

l l

I

pected to increase by about 40 percent as a consequence of reductions in travel speed and more significantly as a consequence of increases in vehicle headways.

v The total evacuation time of the car-owning population during inclement weather conditions thus could be 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> instead of about 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> during normal conditions.

A similar 40 percent impact on the evacuation time of the transport dependents can be expected and would result in a total area evacuation time of about 4-1/2 hours.

Snow-Blocked Roadwa Conditions In the event of a snowstorm that produces snowfall beyond the area's maintenance capabilities and as a consequence leads,to some snowblocked roads in. the area, it is expected that additional heavy maintenance equipment would need to be assigned by the State Department of Transportation Maintenance District to the designated evacuation area. Mobilization or reassignment of such additional road-clearing equipment and opening of blocked roadways is likely to involve time spans of about 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> predicated upon the availability of such additional equipment within a 40-mile radius from the evacuation area. It should be noted that the snow-blocked roads are likely to be secondary or feeder, roads and, although the overall evacu-ation time would be significantly impacted, only a small percentage of the total population would be impeded.

Under these severe weather conditions noted above, the overall area evacuation time could increase to a total of about 7-1/2 hours.

~l EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE

SUMMARY

The estimated total area evacuation times outlined in the preceding sections are summarized below:

Normal weather evacuation time is estimated to be 3 hours and 15 minutes.

Evacuation time during a Susquehanna River flood condition is esti-mated to be 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 45 minutes.

53

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o Estimated evacuation time during icing of'the Interstate route is 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes.

o ~

Estimated evacuation time during a heavy snowstorm is 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes.

6 Estimated evacuation time during a major snowstorm with some roads becoming temporarily impassable is 7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br /> and 30 minutes.

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