LR-N12-0366, Kld TR-499, Revision 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Chapter 6 Through Chapter 9

Kld TR-499, Revision 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Chapter 6 Through Chapter 9

ML13052A678
Person / Time
Site:	Salem, Hope Creek
Issue date:	11/30/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Public Service Enterprise Group
References
LR-N12-0366 KLD TR-499, Rev. 0
Download: ML13052A678 (78)

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6 DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation "case" defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario.The definitions of "Region" and "Scenario" are as follows: Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating ERPA that forms either a "keyhole" sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.

Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions.

Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.

A total of 28 Regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of ERPA considered.

These Regions are defined in Table 6-1. The ERPA configurations are identified in Figure 6-1.Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.

The central sector coincides with the wind direction.

These sectors extend to the EPZ boundary and comprise Regions R04 through R13. Regions R01, R02 and R03 represent evacuations of circular areas with radii of 2, 5 and 10 miles, respectively.

The Salem-Hope Creek NGS Protective Action Recommendation (PAR) logic always evacuates at least the 5 mile radius around the plant. The 2 mile Region (R01) is considered in this study to fulfill NRC guidance.Although NRC guidance recommends staged evacuation for the 2-mile radius and downwind to 5 miles, this study considers staged evacuation for the 5-mile radius and downwind to the EPZ boundary, consistent with the site-specific PAR. Regions R14 through R24 are identical to Regions R03 through R13, respectively; however, those ERPA between 5 miles and the EPZ boundary are staged until 90% of the 5-mile region (Region R02) has evacuated.

A total of 14 Scenarios were evaluated for all Regions. Thus, there are a total of 28 x 14 = 392 evacuation cases. Table 6-2 is a description of all Scenarios.

Each combination of Region and Scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated.

Table 6-3 presents the percentage of each population group estimated to evacuate for each scenario.Table 6-4 presents the vehicle counts for each scenario for an evacuation of Region R03 -the entire EPZ.The vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 are peak values. These peak values are adjusted depending on the scenario and region being considered, using scenario and region specific percentages, such that the average population is considered for each evacuation case. The scenario percentages are presented in Table 6-3, while the regional percentages are provided in Table H-1. The percentages presented in Table 6-3 were determined as follows: The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is equal to the product of 64% (the number of households with at least one commuter) and 47%(the number of households with returning commuters that would await the return of the Salem-Hope Creek NGS 6-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 commuter prior to evacuating).

See assumption 3 in Section 2.3. It is estimated for weekend and evening scenarios that 10% of households with commuters will have a commuter at work during those times.Employment is assumed to be at its peak during the winter, midweek, midday scenarios.

Employment is reduced slightly (96%) for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

This is based on the estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those taking vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of employees vacationing each week. It is also estimated that only 10% of employees are working in the evenings and during the weekends.Transient activity is estimated to be at its peak during summer weekends and less (35%) during the week. As shown in Appendix E, the lodging facilities and campground within the EPZ offer overnight accommodations to approximately 5% of total transients, thus transient activity is assumed to be 5% during evening hours for summer and for winter. Transient activity on winter weekends is estimated to be about a third of the summer weekend population

-12%.As noted in the shadow footnote to Table 6-3, the shadow percentages are computed using a base of 20% (see assumption 5 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the shadow region who may choose to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario-specific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the shadow region. For example, using the values provided in Table 6-4 for Scenario 1, the shadow percentage is computed as follows: 20% x 1+ 4,281 =24%0 x 7,072 + 16,426) =One special event -the Middletown Peach Festival -was considered as Scenario 13. Thus, the special event traffic is 100% evacuated for Scenario 13, and 0% for all other scenarios.

It is estimated that summer school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during the regular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

School is not in session during weekends and evenings, thus no buses for school children are needed under those circumstances.

As discussed in Section 7, schools are in session during the winter season, midweek, midday and 100% of buses will be needed under those circumstances.

Transit buses for the transit-dependent population are set to 100% for all scenarios as it is assumed that the transit-dependent population is present in the EPZ for all scenarios.

External traffic is estimated to be reduced by 60% during evening scenarios and is 100% for all other scenarios.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS 6-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions Basic Regions ERPA Region Description R01 2-Mile Region R02 5-Mile Region R03 Full EPZ Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Di Region Wind Direction From: R04 N, NNE, NE ROS ENE, E, ESE R06 SE R07 SSE R08 S R09 SSW, SW RiO WSW R11 W, WNW R12 NW R13 NNW 11 2 3 4 5 6 17181AIB CID ownwind to the EPZ I then Evacuate Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Staged Evacuation Mile Radius Evacuates, I Region Wind Direction From: I ERPA 1 1 213 14 151 6 17 1 8 Al 1 1C I DI R14 None RIS N, NNE, NE R16 ENE, E, ESE R17 SE R18 SSE R19 S R20 SSW, SW R21 WSW R22 W, WNW R23 NW R24 NNW ire Only Delawa R25 ERPA A R26 ERPA B R27 ERPA C R28 All of Delaware Key ERPA Shelters-in-Place Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 6-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 6-1. Salem-Hope Creek EPZ Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 6-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scnai Sesn Week Day Weahe Special 1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None 5 Summer Midweek, Evening Good None Weekend 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None 12 Winter Midweek, Evening Good None Weekend Eeig Go 13 Summer Weekend Midday Good Middletown Peach Festival Roadway Impact -Lane 14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Closure on DE State Route 1 Southbound 1 Winter means that school is in session (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is not in session.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 6-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios SHouseholds Wit Reunn Reunn Spca Scoo Trasi Through0 1 30% 70% 96% 35% 24% 0% 10% 100% 100%2 30% 70% 96% 35% 24% 0% 10% 100% 100%3 3% 97% 10% 100% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%4 3% 97% 10% 100% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%5 3% 97% 10% 5% 20% 0% 0% 100% 40%6 30% 70% 100% 5% 24% 0% 100% 100% 100%7 30% 70% 100% 5% 24% 0% 100% 100% 100%8 30% 70% 100% 5% 24% 0% 100% 100% 100%9 3% 97% 10% 12% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%10 3% 97% 10% 12% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%11 3% 97% 10% 12% 20% 0% 0% 100% 100%12 3% 97% 10% 5% 20% 0% 0% 100% 40%13 3% 97% 10% 100% 20% 100% 0% 100% 100%14 30% 70% 96% 35% 24% 0% 10% 100% 100%Resident Households with Commuters

....... Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Resident Households with No Commuters

..Households of EPZ residents who do not have commuters or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Employees

..................................................

EPZ employees who live outside the EPZ Transients

..................................................

People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.Shadow ......................................................

Residents and employees in the shadow region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation.

The basis for the values shown is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees.

Special Events ............................................

Additional vehicles in the EPZ due to the identified special event.School and Transit Buses ............................

Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and transit-dependent people (1 bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles).

External Through Traffic .............................

Traffic on interstates/freeways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation.

This traffic is stopped by access control approximately I hour after the evacuation begins.Salem-Hope Creek NGS 6-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario 1 7,072 16,426 4,281 506 17,446 -56 126 6,748 52,661 2 7,072 16,426 4,281 506 17,446 -56 126 6,748 52,661 3 707 22,791 446 1,446 15,038 --126 6,748 47,302 4 707 22,791 446 1,446 15,038 -126 6,748 47,302 5 707 22,791 446 74 15,038 -126 2,699 41,881 6 7,072 16,426 4,459 72 17,558 -562 126 6,748 53,033 7 7,072 16,426 4,459 72 17,558 -562 126 6,748 53,033 8 7,072 16,426 4,459 72 17,558 -562 126 6,748 53,033 9 707 22,791 446 174 15,038 --126 6,748 46,030 10 707 22,791 446 174 15,038 --126 6,748 46,030 11 707 22,791 446 174 15,038 --126 6,748 46,030 12 707 22,791 446 72 15,038 --126 2,699 41,879 13 707 22,791 446 1,446 15,038 6,184 -126 6,748 53,486 14 7,072 16,426 4,281 506 17,446 -562 126 6,748 53,167 Note: Vehicle estimates are for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03)Salem-Hope Creek NGS 6-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the current ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover 24 regions within the SHCNGS EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regions for all Evacuation Scenarios.

The ETE of the 5-mile region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the Evacuation Regions considered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.

7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation"Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in ERPAs for which an Advisory to Evacuate has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.The ETE for the SHCNGS EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in ERPAs outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.

Similarly, it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. Based on discussions with PSEG Nuclear and DEMA, it was decided to end the Shadow Region at the Delaware/Maryland state border as it serves as a clear political boundary to define the Shadow Region. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 155,899 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.

See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the plant, has the potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.7.2 Staged Evacuation For this study, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. ERPAs comprising the 5 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

2. ERPAs comprising regions extending from 5 to 10 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the 5 mile region is cleared.3. As vehicles evacuate the 5 mile region, people from 5 to 10 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 5 to 10 mile region is advised to evacuate when approximately 90% of the 5 mile region evacuating traffic crosses the 5 mile region boundary.5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.

7.3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-7 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ (Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5): The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.

However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

9 Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);* Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, 1 h, 3 h); and 9 Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.

These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.

Figure 7-3 displays the congestion patterns 30 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE). The plant access road is at LOS F due to the large number of plant employees evacuating within a short mobilization time onto a single lane road. Main Street is LOS F in downtown Middletown, Delaware, the most densely populated area in the EPZ. State Route 45 exiting Salem, New Jersey and State Route 71 crossing the Summit Bridge in Delaware are also at LOS F, and are the most congested roadways throughout the evacuation simulation.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 State Route 45 is servicing all of the traffic exiting Salem City heading northwest to the reception center at the Salem County Vocational Technical School. State Route 71 in Delaware becomes congested when the vehicles evacuating north from Middletown are reduced from two lanes to one lane crossing the Summit Bridge.At one hour after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays fully-developed congestion around population centers and along major evacuation routes. In New Jersey, congestion leaving the plant increases and congestion develops more fully in Salem City. State Route 45 and Haines Neck Road become increasingly congested delivering vehicles the reception center at the Salem County Vocational Technical School. Additional congestion develops on State Route 49 and West Avenue heading toward the reception center at Bridgeton High School in the southeast.

Jericho Rd and State Route 49 are servicing most of the evacuees from the plant as well as all evacuees from ERPAs 1, 2, 6 and 7 whom are headed southeast toward the reception center at Bridgeton High School. In Delaware, the congestion in Middletown has spread from Main Street to State Route 71 northbound and US-301 northbound.

Caldwell Corner Road gives access to US-301 from Townsend and experiences some congestion at rural intersections.

Congestion on State Route 71 northbound increases as vehicles continue to cross the Summit Bridge. Various sections of US-13 display LOS F, typically at large signalized intersections.

At two hours after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-5, the majority of traffic congestion has cleared within the EPZ, but has now propagated into the Shadow Region. In New Jersey, vehicles continue to exit Salem City on State Route 45. The use of Kings Highway, Bassett Road and Haines Neck Road provides additional capacity outside the EPZ to evacuate Salem City more efficiently.

State Route 49 only has congestion in the Shadow Region in the vicinity of the reception center in Bridgeton.

In Delaware, congestion has developed on Churchtown Road heading west to State Route 213 in Maryland, providing an alternative evacuation route to avoid the bottleneck at the Summit Bridge. In the north, there is congestion around the intersection of State Route 273 and State Route 7 where vehicles are attempting to access State Route 1 and 1-95.At three hours after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-6, there is no congestion within the EPZ (all EPZ congestion clears at 2:40). State Route 1 and US-13 are both clear, and congestion only persists near the reception center at Salem County Vocational Technical School on the New Jersey side of the EPZ and near the Summit Bridge on the Delaware side of the EPZ.At four hours after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-7, congestion only persists on State Route 45 and Haines Neck Road giving access to the reception center. The traffic management plan for this reception center has all evacuating traffic entering through one low capacity driveway, causing this to be the last location to clear of evacuating traffic. All traffic congestion in the study area clears at 4:40 after the ATE. Permanent residents will continue to mobilize until 5:00 after the ATE as shown in Table 5-9.7.4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-8 through Figure 7-21. These Figures indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation Salem-Hope Creek NGS 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions.

One figure is presented for each scenario considered.

As indicated in Figure 7-8, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.

Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase).

When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by these curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal.

Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Results Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 28 Evacuation Regions and all 14 Evacuation Scenarios.

Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 5-Mile region for both staged and un-staged keyhole regions downwind to 10 miles. They are organized as follows: Tabl Cotet I ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

I ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-3 population within the 5-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-4 population within the 5-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-7.Most of the congestion is located in ERPAs 3, 4, B and C which are all beyond the 5-mile area;this is reflected in the ETE statistics:

Salem-Hope Creek NGS 7-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

" The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region R02 (the 5-mile area) generally range between 1:30 (hr:min) and 1:45 (slightly higher for snow)." The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Regions R03 (full EPZ) and R04 -R13 (which extend to the EPZ boundary) are higher due to the traffic congestion, ranging between 2:05 (hr:min)and 2:25 (slightly higher for snow).The 1 0 0 th percentile ETE for all Regions and for all Scenarios are directly correlated with, and often the same values as the mobilization times. This fact implies that the congestion within the EPZ dissipates prior to the end of mobilization, as is displayed in Figure 7-7 and discussed in Section 7.3.Comparison of Scenarios 3 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -the Middletown Peach Festival -has little impact on the ETE for the 90th percentile.

The additional 6,184 vehicles present for the special event increase congestion along the local roads and major evacuation routes in Middletown.

Because Middletown is located on the edge of the EPZ, there is not a great effect on ETE. Several regions have an ETE which is 5 or 10 minutes less for the special event because there are more vehicles evacuating and fast-mobilizing transients can shorten the 9 0 th percentile ETE.Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane southbound on Delaware State Route 1 -does not have a significant impact on 90th percentile ETE and only increases it by 5 minutes at most. With one lane closed on State Route 1, there is still sufficient capacity to evacuate vehicles without materially affecting ETE.7.6 Staged Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R03 through R13 are the same geographic areas as Regions R14 through R24 respectively.

To determine whether the staged evacuation strategy is worthy of consideration, it must be shown that the ETE for the 5-mile region can be reduced without significantly affecting the region between 5 miles and the EPZ boundary.

In all cases, as shown in these tables, the ETE for the 5 mile region is not reduced when a staged evacuation is implemented.

The reason for this is that the congestion outside the 5-mile area does not extend upstream to the extent that it penetrates to within 5 miles of the plant. Consequently, the impedance, due to this congestion beyond the 5-mile area, to evacuees from within the 5-mile area is not sufficient to materially influence the 9 0 th percentile ETE for the full EPZ.While failing to provide benefit to evacuees from within 5 miles of the SHCNGS, staging produces a negative impact on the ETE for those evacuating from beyond the 5-mile area. A comparison of ETE between Regions R03 through R13 and R14 through R24 reveals that staging retards the 90th percentile evacuation time for those in the 5 to 10-mile area by up to 30 minutes (see Table 7-1). This extending of ETE is due to the delay in beginning the evacuation trip, experienced by those who shelter, plus the effect of the trip-generation "spike" (significant Salem-Hope Creek NGS 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 volume of traffic beginning the evacuation trip at the same time) that follows their eventual ATE, in creating congestion within the EPZ area beyond 5 miles.In summary, the staged evacuation option provides no benefits to those evacuating from within 5 miles of the SHCNGS and adversely impacts those evacuees located beyond 5 miles from the plant.7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC guidance calls for the 9 0 th percentile).

The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table may then be identified using the following procedure:

1. Identify the applicable Scenario:* Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)" Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend" Time of Day" Midday" Evening" Weather Condition" Good Weather" Rain" Snow" Special Event" Middletown Peach Festival" Road Closure (A lane on DE State Route 1 southbound is closed)" Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered

• Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:

0 The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.0 The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for rain apply.0 The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for snow apply.0 The seasons are defined as follows: Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0

" Summer assumes that public schools are not in session." Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region:* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction).

This direction is-expressed in terms of compass orientation:

from N, NNE, NE, ...* Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are given below: 0 2 Miles (Region R01)a To 5 Miles (Region R02)0 To EPZ Boundary (Regions R03 through R13)* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on the distance that the selected Region extends from the SHCNGS. Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.

Then, for the Scenario identified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 are labeled with the Scenario numbers. Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the Scenario number defined in Step 1.* Identify the row in this table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in Step 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.

7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:

• Sunday, August 10th at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is from the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radius and downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).

• The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population from within the impacted Region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 9 0 th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows: 1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors.

However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction from the NE and read Region R04 in the first column of that row.3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and Region R04. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R04; it contains the ETE value of 1:55.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Midday I Midday I Evening I Midday Midday Evening Midday I Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Peach Roadway Weather Weather I Weather Weather R Weather S Weather Festival Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, S-Mile Region, and EPZ R0O1 1:30 1:40 1:50 1:50 1:55 1:35 1:40 1:55 1:55 1:55 3:10 1:55 :0 13 R02 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R03 12:25 2:25 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:25 2:25 3:30 2:05 2:05 3:20 2:15 :5 22 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R04 2:10 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:10 2:10 2:10 3:15 1:55 1:55 3:05 2:10 1:50 2:15 R05 2:20 2:20 2. ..2:00 2:10 2:20 2:20 3:25 2:00 2:00 3:15 2:10 2:05 2:25 R06 2:10 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:10 2:10 2:10 3:15 1:55 1:55 3:05 2:10 1:45 2:10 R07 2:15 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:10 2:15 2:15 3:20 2:00 2:00 3:10 2:10 1:50 2:15 R08 2:15 2:20 1:55 2:00 2:10 2:15 2:20 3:20 2:00 2:00 3:10 2:10 1:50 2:15 R0 2:10 2:15 1:50 1:50 2:05 2:10 2:15 3:05 1:50 1:50 2:55 2:05 1:50 2:10 R10 2:10 2:15 1:50 1:50 2:05 2:10 2:15 3:00 1:50 1:50 2:55 2:05 1:50 2:10 R11 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:40 2:05 1:55 15 2:0 1:40 1:40 2:45 2:05 1:40 1:55 R12 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:35 2:00 1:45 1:50 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R13 2:10 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:10 2:10 2:15 3:15 155 1:55 3:05 2:10 1:50 21.5 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Midday Midday I Evening Midday Midday I Evening Midday I Midday Region Good R Good i Good Good Good Good Peach Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Festival Impact Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 R21 R22 R23 R24 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:25 2:35 2:25 2:35 2:20 2:25 2:25 2:20 2:20 2:05 2:00 2:25 2:25 2:20 2:25 2:10 2:15 2:15 2:10 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:20 2:30 2:20 2:30 2:15 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:20 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:05 2:25 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:25 2:35 2:25 2:35 2:20 2:25 2:25 2:20 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:25 3:30 3:15 3:25 3:15 3:20 3:20 3:05 3:05 2:50 2:35 3:15 2:25 2:20 2:25 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:10 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:20 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:15 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:25 3:20 3:05 3:15 3:05 3:10 3:10 2:55 2:55 2:45 2:30 3:05 2:30 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:05 2:25 2:20 2:15 2:20 2:10 2:15 2:15 2:10 2:10 2:00 2:00 2:15 2:35 2:25 2:35 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:25 ERPA A, ERPA B, ERPA C and all of Delaware R25 1:50 1:50 1:30 1:30 1:55 1:50 1:50 2:40 1:30 1:30 2:25 1:55 1:30 1:50 R26 2:10 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:10 2:10 2:10 3:10 1:50 1:50 3:00 2:10 1:50 2:15 R27 2:10 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:10 2:10 2:10 3:15 1:55 1:55 3:05 2:10 1:45 2:15 R28 2:25 2:25 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:25 2:25 3:30 2:05 2:10 3:20 2:15 2:10 2:25 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population I Midday I Midday I Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Peach Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Festival Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ 500 5:00 5:00 5:00 5:00 5:00 5:00 6:30 5:00 5:00 6:30 5:00 5:00 5:00 R02 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R03 1 5:10 15:10 5:1.0 15:10 5:10 15:10 5:10 1 640 5:10 5:10 1 :0 15:10 15:10 15:10 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R04 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 RO! 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R06 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R07 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 50 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R08 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R9 55O 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R10 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 111 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R12 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R13 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 .5:0 6:35 5:05 5:05 ~35 5:05 5:05 5:05 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Midday I Midday Evening I Midday Midday Midday I Evening I Midday I Midday Region Good Good [Good Good ] Good R [Good Peach Roadway Weather Rain Weather Rain Weather Weather Rain now Weather Rain Snow Weather Festival Impact Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R14 RIS R16 R17 R18 R19 R20 R21 R22 RZ3 R24 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 6:40 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 ERPA A, ERPA B, ERPA C and all of Delaware R25 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5.05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R26 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 6:40 5:10 5:10 6:40 5:10 5:10 5:10 R27 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 6:40 5:10 5:10 6:40 5:10 5:10 5:10 R28 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 5:10 6:40 5:10 5:10 6:40 5:10 5:10 5:10 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 5-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Rein Go an Go an Good Good Rain Snow Go Rain Snow Good Peach Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather IWeather Weather Festival Impact Midweek_ _________

Entire 5-Mile Region and EPZ________

R2 145 1:45 J1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R0 1:55 1:55 1:3.5 1:40 2:00 1:55 1:5o 1 2:55 1:40 1:40 2:45 2:00 1:35 1:55_____ _Entire_5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R04 1:50 1:50 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:50 1:50 2:45 1:35 1:35 2:35 2:00 1:35 1:50 ROS 1:55 1:55 1:35 1:40 2:00 1:~55 1:55 2:50 1.40 1:40 2:45 2:00 1:35 1:55 R06 1:50 1:50 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:50 1:55 2:50 1:35 1:35 2:40 2:00 1:35 1:50 507 1:50 1:50 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:55 1:55 2:50 1:35 1:35 2:40 2:00 1:35 1:50 ROS 1:50 1:50 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:55 1:55 2:50 1:35 1:35 2:40 2:00 1:35 1:50 R09 1:45 1:50 1:30 1:35 2:00 1:50 1:50 2:40 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R10 1:45 1:50 1:30 1:35 2:00 1:50 1:50 2:40 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R08 1:45 1:50 1:30 1:35 2:00 1:50 1:50 2:40 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R12 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R13 1:50 1:45 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:50 1:50 2:45 1:35 1:35 2:35 2:00 1:35 1:50 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R14 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R15 1:45 1:4 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R16 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R17 1:45 1:45 130 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 135 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R18 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R19 1:45 1:45 130 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 235 1:35 135 2:30 2:00 130 1:45 R20 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R122 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R22 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 R23 1:45 1:S 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 200 1:30 1:45 R24 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:45 1:45 2:35 1:35 1:35 2:30 2:00 1:30 1:45 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 5-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend EPZweWeekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Ran Good Ran Good Good Rain Snow Weathe Rain Snow Go ec oda Weather Ran Weather Ran Weather Weather I IWahrWeather Festival Impact Entire 5-Mile Region, and EPZ R02 15:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 50:05 5051 5:05 R03 5:05 5:05 5:0515:0515:05 5:05 [5:05 1 I 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R04 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 ROS 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R06 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R07 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 ROB 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R09 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 RIO 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R11 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R12 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R13 5:05 5.:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 Staged Evacuation

-S-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R14 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R15 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5.05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R16 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R17 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R18 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R19 5:05 5:05 5:05 505 5:05 5:05, 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5 R20 5:05 5:05 S:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R21 5:05 5:05 5:05 505 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R22 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 R23 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:5 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:5 5:05 R24 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 6:35 5:05 5:05 5:05 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-5 Descrription of Evacuation Reolonn Basic Regions t 4 ERPA Region Description RO 2-Mile Region R02 5-Mile Region R03 Full EPZ Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Do Region Wind Direction From: R04 N, NNE, NE ROS ENE, E, ESE R06 SE R07 SSE ROB S R09 SSW, SW RIO WSW R12 W, WNW R12 NW R13 NNW 1 A wnwn to the EPZ Boundary hen Evacuate Downwind to the EPZ Boundary Staged iEVCuaSO -S-Mile RaIUS IEvacuats, tI Region Wind Direction From: R14 None RIS N, NNE, NE R16 ENE, E, ESE R17 SE RI1 SSE R19 S R20 SSW, SW R21 WSW R22 W, WNW R23 NW R24 NNW I ~ ERPA 111 2 13 14 151 61 71 8 1A IB IC I D Delaware Only R25 ERPAA A R26 ERPA B R27 ERPA C R28 All of Delaware 6ERPA Shelters-in-Place Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 15 Miles 2-Mile RegioJ 1 5MWes Entre EPZ SStaged Evacuation:

5-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwind I reynole: t-Mile liegion 6 1u Miles uownwino I I

• Plant Location N Region to be Evacuated:

100% Evacuation

[ 20% Shadow Evacuation

• Shelter, then Evacuate I Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-2. Salem-Hope Creek Shadow Evacuation Region 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 40 Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%45 40 ano 35 C m 30 r 25 A 20' .15>~ 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 330 45 40 to 35 7 30 X 25'0 20"C> 10 5 0 Figure 7-8. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 1 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 9 100%__00 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)330 Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 2 for Region R03 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2-Mile Region -S-Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%C 4-.U C M .c AA -do 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%M Ui U, 45 40 35' 30 2015 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 330 Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 4 for Region R03 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%'U U, C 0.C 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%Do C 4.MU'&Z UC LU 0'aE.45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Ah Oeo-O" 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 330 Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 6 for Region R03 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%45 40 tn 35 S30 m 25 0 20*E != 15> 10 5 0 K 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)300 330 Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%0 100%hA C 4-U U II Lu In a'U a'45 40 35-~30% 25 o 20 to 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 8 for Region R03 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%0 100%U =0:E 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 9 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2-Mile Region 1 5-Mite Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%0 100%UC 0:E 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 10 for Region R03 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%0n C 4-45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 420 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%Ui'A U.D ZA:E 45 40 35 S30 M 25 o20 t.15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 330 Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 12 for Region R03 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%

• 100%LU*0.C 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%EU U, U,*0 F_45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0'Ole 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)330 1 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 14 for Region R03 7-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 7-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles.

The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; and (3) homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:

• Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. Based on discussion with the offsite agencies, it is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 45 minutes for New Jersey and 90 minutes for Delaware extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.

Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the Salem-Hope Creek EPZ indicates that in the event of an emergency, schoolchildren will be evacuated to their school's designated host school where they can be picked up by their parents. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.

This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.

It is assumed that children at day-care centers are picked up by parents or guardians and that the time to perform this activity is included in the trip generation times discussed in Section 5.The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:* Estimate demand for transit service* Estimate time to perform all transit functions Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 0 Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the reception centers 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service:* Those persons in households that do not have a vehicle available.

• Those persons in households that do have vehicle(s) that would not be available at the time the evacuation is advised.In the latter group, the vehicle(s) may be used by a commuter(s) who does not return (or is not expected to return) home to evacuate the household.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note: Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.

For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.

The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.

However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.[20 + ( x 10)] + 40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 1,870 people -399 in New Jersey and 1,471 in Delaware.

Therefore, a total of 63 bus runs, 15 for New Jersey and 48 for Delaware, are required to transport this population to reception centers.Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the Salem-Hope Creek EPZ: n P = No. of HH x Y.((% HH with i vehicles) x [(Average HH Size) -i]} X A'Ci i=O Where, A = Percent of households with commuters C = Percent of households who will not await the return of a commuter P = 18,494 x [0.035 x 2.48 + 0.231 x (1.94 -1) x 0.64 x 0.53 + 0.459 x (2.79 -2)x (0.64 x 0.53)2] = 3,739 B = (0.5 x P) + 30 = 63 These calculations are explained as follows: All members (2.48 avg.) of households (HH) with no vehicles (3.5%) will evacuate by public transit or ride-share.

The term 18,494 (number of households) x 0.035 x 2.48, accounts for these people.The members of HH with 1 vehicle away (23.1%), who are at home, equal (1.94-1).The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to (18,494 x 0.231 x 0.64 x 0.53), as 64% of EPZ households have a commuter, 53% of which would not return home in the event of an emergency.

The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms.The members of HH with 2 vehicles that are away (45.9%), who are at home, equal (2.97 -2). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is equal to 18,494 x 0.459 x (0.64 x 0.53)2. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will return).Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.The total number of persons requiring public transit is the sum of such people in HH with no vehicles, or with 1 or 2 vehicles that are away from home.The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by the state emergency management agencies (discussed below in Section 8.5). This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants do not register with their local emergency response agency.Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 8.2 School Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all schools within the EPZ for the 2011-2012 school year. This information was provided by NJSP-OEM and DEMA. The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

• No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 54 for New Jersey (4 faculty and 50 students).

Delaware is estimated to have the capacity of 70 for primary schools and 46 for middle and high schools.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.It is recommended that DEMA and NJSP-OEM introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot (approximately one hour after the Advisory to Evacuate), to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated.

In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).

Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Table 8-3 presents a list of host schools for each school in the EPZ. Students will be transported to these schools where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.8.3 Medical Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. 400 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.

The capacity and current census for each facility were provided by NJSP-OEM and DEMA. This data includes the number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden patients at each facility.The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of wheelchair bus runs assumes 15 wheelchairs per trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.

In the event that the allocation of Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the reception center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.

For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.

The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Activity:

Mobilize Drivers (A4B-4C)Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, drivers would likely require 120 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -130 minutes when raining, 140 minutes when snowing. Mobilization time for transit-dependent residents is based on the results of the telephone survey as discussed later in this section.Activity:

Board Passengers (C-->D)Based on discussions with offsite agencies, a loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is used.For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

T=t+B+t=B+2t=B+-2, a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.

The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is: V V a a Salemn-HoDe Creek NGS 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Fvarijafinn Timp Ftimatp Rev. 0 Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to 0 board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:

Travel to EPZ Boundary (D--E)School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by NJSP-OEM and DEMA and are summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table are the number of buses needed to evacuate schools, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, and homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5) population.

These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate all transit-dependent people in a single wave. If in the event of an emergency at SHCNGS there were an insufficient number of buses for any school district, it is assumed that these school districts would be assisted through Memoranda of Understanding and Mutual Aid Agreements, as outlined in Attachment 3 to the State of New Jersey Radiological Emergency Response Plan.The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate host school. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: 0 Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Average Speed (-h)Y?= length of link i (mi) 60 min.--X x~1 hr.Ztj 1 Delay on link i (min.) + length oflinki(mi. ) 60ran.current speed on link i Mi.)The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the host school/Reception Center was computed assuming an average speed of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 45 mph (40 mph for rain and 35 mph for snow) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 45 mph, as it is unlikely that school buses would be traveling at speeds greater than that.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the host school (H.S.). The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A--3B--C, C--D, and D--E. For example: 90 min. + 15 min. + 7 min. = 1:55 for Arc of Salem County, with good weather (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes).

The evacuation time to the School Reception Center is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E--F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.

As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), 90 percent of the evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 120 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.

Table 8-10 describes identifies each of the transit routes considered, the number of buses servicing each route, and the length of the route.Middletown, DE has the highest transit-dependent population and requires more buses than any other area. Routes which are serviced by multiple buses use 5 minute headways between buses, as shown in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13.Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The 9 routes for New Jersey are shown in Figure 8-2 and the 6 routes for Delaware are shown in Figure 8-3. These routes were taken from the state radiological emergency plans. It is assumed that residents will walk to and congregate at the pre-designated pick-up locations along these routes, and that they can arrive at the stops within the 120 minute bus mobilization time (good weather).Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop. Longer pickup times of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow, respectively.

The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.

Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.

Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the bus servicing New Jersey Transit Route 1 (NJT-1) is computed as 120 + 97 + 30 = 4:10 for good weather (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes).

Here, 139 minutes is the time to travel 19.4 miles at 12.0 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route at 120 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.

Activity:

Travel to Reception Centers (E--)F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.

Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity:

Passengers Leave Bus (F--G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.Activity:

Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G-*C)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the reception center.Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The second-wave ETE for the bus servicing New Jersey Transit Route 1 is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at reception center at 4:17 in good weather (4:10 to exit EPZ + 7 minute travel time to reception center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 7 minutes (equal to travel time to reception center) + 25 minutes (19.4 miles @ 45 mph) = 32 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 4:10 + 0:07 + 0:15 + 0:32 + 0:30 = 5:35 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a single-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people exceeds the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile.

The relocation of transit-dependent evacuees from the reception centers to congregate care centers, if the state emergency management agencies decide to do so, is not considered in this study.Evacuation of Special Facilities The bus operations for this group are similar to those for school evacuation except: Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients.The passenger loading times will be longer at approximately one minute per ambulatory patient to account for the time to move patients from inside the facility to the vehicles, 5 minutes for wheelchair bound patients and 15 minutes for bedridden patients.Table 8-4 indicates that 15 bus runs and 12 wheelchair bus runs are needed to service all of the special facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the states can collectively provide 350 buses, 15 short buses (capacity between 15 and 25 people), 25 wheel-chair accessible buses, and 7 ambulances.

Thus, there are sufficient resources to evacuate the persons from the special facilities in a single wave.It is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes for good weather (100 minutes for rain; 110 minutes for snow). Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift)will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.

Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.

Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain, and snow. Based on the locations of the medical facilities in Figures E-3 and E-4, it is estimated that buses will have to travel 5 miles, at most, to leave the EPZ. Average travel speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 45 mph (40 mph for rain and 35 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 the EPZ boundary.

The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the average distance of 5 miles by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses, wheelchair transport vehicles, and ambulances at capacity is assumed such that the maximum loading times for buses, wheelchair buses and ambulances are 30, 75 and 30 minutes, respectively.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the calculation of ETE for the Blackbird Landing Group Home Connections Inc. with 8 ambulatory residents during good weather is: ETE: 90 + 8 x 1 + 7 = 105 min. or 1:45.It is assumed that special facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities.

Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis.8.5 Special Needs Population NJSP-OEM and DEMA have registrations for transit-dependent and homebound special needs persons. Based on data provided by these agencies, there are an estimated 34 homebound special needs people in the New Jersey Portion of the EPZ and 16 people within the Delaware portion of the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate.

In New Jersey, 21 people require a bus, 11 people require a wheelchair accessible bus, and 2 people require an ambulance to evacuate.

In Delaware, all 16 people require a wheelchair accessible vehicle to evacuate.ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.

The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle.It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory and wheelchair bound special needs households are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Bus speeds approximate 20 mph between households and ambulance speeds approximate 30 mph in good weather (10% slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). A mobilization time of 90 minutes was used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow) for buses in good weather and 30 minutes (40 minutes for rain, and 50 minutes for snow) for ambulances.

The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 45 mph (40 mph for rain and 35 mph for snow) after the last pickup, is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 21 ambulatory households need to be serviced.

While only 1 bus is needed from a capacity perspective, if 3 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 about 7 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 3 buses are deployed, each with 7 stops, to service a total of 21 HH.2. The ETE is calculated as follows: a. Buses arrive at the first pickup location:

90 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:

6 @ 9 minutes (3 miles at 20 mph) = 54 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:

6 @ 5 minutes = 30 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:

8 minutes (5 miles at 36.0 mph).ETE: 90 + 5 + 54 + 30 + 8 = 3:10 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes The methodology for wheelchair bound and bedridden persons is similar, with 5 wheelchair buses deployed, each servicing about 6 households, and 1 ambulance deployed servicing 2 households.

8.6 Correctional Facilities As detailed in Table E-10, there are two correctional facilities within the EPZ -the James T.Vaughn Correctional Center and the Central Violation of Probation Center. The total inmate population at these facilities is 2,750 persons. Both of these facilities will shelter in place in the event of an evacuation, as per the Delaware Radiological Emergency Plan (Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) 1000-D).Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 (Subsequent Wave)0 Time A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Reception Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service A--B Driver Mobilization B-*C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C-+D Passengers Board the Bus D-+E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E-*F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZ F--*G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 0 0 Figure 8-2. New Jersey Transit-Dependent Bus Routes Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 8-3 Delaware Transit Dependent Bus Routes 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates New Jersey 1 11,155 Delaware 41,182 Total 52,337 2.48 1.94 1 3,942 2.79 14,552 18,494 3.5%23.1%45.9%64%53%797 2,942 3,739 P399 50% 1,471 3.6%1,870 I I Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-2. School and Daycare Population Demand Estimates 1 Lower Alloways Creek Elementary School 198 4 2 Quinton Township Elementary School 370 8 3 Elsinboro Township School 100 2 3 John Fenwick Elementary School 409 9 3 Salem High School 387 8 3 Salem Middle School 425 9 4 Arc of Salem County 150 3 ,;tow r,--L- Township Elementary School 110 3 Woodland Country Day School 144 = 3 Morris Goodwin Elementary School 100 2 Appoquinimink Early Childhood Center 237 4 Bethesda Child Development Center 210 3 Everett Meredith Middle School 691 14 James H. Groves Adult High School 160 4 Middletown High School 1,215 25 Old State Road Elementary School 404 6 Silver Lake Elementary School 529 8 Spring Meadow Early Childhood Center 147 3 St Andrew's Pre-School and Child Development 551 Center St Andrew's School 291 6 St Anne's Episcopal School 306 7 Townsend Early Childhood Center 234 4 Townsend Elementary School 404 6 Advo Serv School 130 3 Alfred G. Waters Middle School 900 18 Brick Mill Elementary School 754 11 Cedar Lane Early Childhood Center 265 4 Cedar Lane Elementary School 634 10 Green Acres Preschool 174 3 Gunning Bedford Middle School 1,100 22 Kathleen H. Wilbur Elementary School 1,150 17 Redding Middle School 756 16 Southern Elementary School 944 14 St Geories Technical High School 1.042 21 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-3. Host Schools Schoo Hos Sch Morris Goodwin School Stow Creek Township School Woodland Country Day School Cumberland Regional High School Elsinboro Township School Mary S. Shoemaker School Arc of Salem County Salem High School Penns Grove High School Salem Middle School John Fenwick School Penns Grove Middle School Lower Alloways Creek Township Elementary School Schalick High School Quinton Township Elementary School Appoquinimink Early Childhood Center Bethedsa Child Development Everett Meredith Middle School Middletown High School Redding Middle School Caesar Rodney High School St. Andrew's Pre-school and Child Development Center St. Andrew's School St. Anne's Episcopal School Advo Serv School St. Georges Technical High School Dickinson High School Alfred G. Waters Middle School Brick Mill Elementary School Cedar Lane Elementary School Green Acres Preschool James H. Groves Adult High School Old State Road Elementary School Silver Lake Elementary School Dover High School Spring Meadow Early Childhood Center The Broadmeadow School Townsend Early Childhood Center Townsend Elementary School Gunning Bedford Middle School Kathleen H. Wilbur Elementary School Southern Elementary School Mount Pleasant High School Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-4. Special Facility Transit Demand Whel chi Curen Ambu cair Bed Bus Bu A Van Hook Walsh Residence Townsend 4 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 B Blackbird Landing Group Home Townsend 8 8 8 0 0 1 0 0 Connections Inc.B Cadia Rehab-Broadmeadow Middletown 117 77 17 60 0 1 4 0 B Clint Walker Group Home, Smyrna 10 10 10 0 0 1 0 0 Connections Inc.B Mosaic/Black Diamond Townsend 6 5 0 5 0 0 1 0 B Middletown Residential Middletown 10 10 10 0 0 1 0 0 Treatment Center B Peoples Place Residential Group Townsend 10 10 10 0 0 1 0 0 Home for Boys C Cornerstone Residential, Delaware City 15 15 15 0 0 1 0 0 Connections Inc. DaaCt555 0_0 C Governor Bacon Health Center Delaware City 80 59 12 47 0 1 4 0 C Gateway Foundation Cottage 1 and 2 Delaware City 80 80 80 0 0 3 0 0 r Cilupr i niep flnv Trantmant rantar IMirflflatnumn 7';N (1 N'A Salem-Hope Creek NGS KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources B.R. Williams (NJ) 37 9 5 Elsinboro Ambulance (NJ) ---1 Fenwick Ambulance (NJ) --2 Greenwich Twp. Board of Education (NJ) 3 --Lower Alloways Creek (NJ) 10 1 3 _Lower Alloways Creek Ambulance (NJ) ---2 Penns Grove (NJ) 1 -1 Pennsville (NJ) 2 1 3 Quinton Ambulance (NJ) ---2 Quinton Township (NJ) 13 -Salem County Transit (NJ) 4 -2 Stow Creek Board of Education (NJ) 4 --Upper Pittsgrove (NJ) 19 0 9 Wyshinshki Bus Service, Inc. (NJ) 18 4 2 Appoquinimink Schools (DE) 109 --Colonial School District (DE) 130 -*Delaware DOT and DEMA will determine the actual number of buses needed to evacuate the general public in affected sectors.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions Bu Route.S S S *5 S 649,e 647,ipio 646, s 52, ese 53,m Ro6, 55,r 48, 801, 47B4,78 u40 n86d3,36a5r2,y7 2 Advo Serv School 767, 768, 806, 71, 72 3 Alfred G. Waters Middle School 649, 647, 646, 52, 53, 56, 55, 48, 801, 47, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 4 Appoquinimink Early Childhood Center 681, 682, 683, 684, 856, 45, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 5 Arc of Salem County 304, 819, 305 6 Bethesa Child Development Center 681, 682, 683, 684, 856, 45, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 7 Brick Mill Elementary School 812, 684, 856, 45, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 8 Cedar Lane Early Childhood Center 649, 647, 646, 52, 53, 56, 55, 48, 801, 47, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 9 Cedar Lane Elementary School 649, 647, 646, 52, 53, 56, 55, 48, 801, 47, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 11 Elsinboro Township School 741, 438, 437, 439, 440, 441, 442, 832, 833, 445, 273, 274, 304, 819, 305 12 Everett Meredith Middle School 681, 682, 683, 684, 856, 45, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 13 Green Acres Preschool 49, 42, 804, 855, 44, 45, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 14 Gunning Bedford Middle School 663, 664, 648, 771, 70, 72, 74 15 James H. Groves Adult High School 681, 682, 683, 684, 856, 45, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 16 John Fenwick Elementary School 273, 274, 304, 819, 305 17 Kathleen H. Wilbur Elementary School 806, 71, 72, 74 18 Lower Allowoys Creek Elementary 364, 366, 367, 368, 369, 370, 371, 372, 373, 374, 375, 377, 378_________School

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19 Middletown High School 681, 682, 683, 684, 856, 45, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 20 Morris Goodwin Elementary School 823, 822, 821 21 Quinton Township Elementary School 281, 282, 283, 284, 285, 286, 399 22 Redding Middle School 681, 682, 683, 684, 856, 45, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 23 Salem High School 473, 831, 834, 275, 273, 274, 304, 819, 305 24 Salem Middle School 830, 444, 445, 273, 274, 304, 819, 305 25 Silver Lake Elementary School 681, 682, 683, 684, 856, 45, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 26 Southern Elementary School 663, 664, 648, 771, 70, 72, 74 27 St Andrew's School & St Andrew's Pre- 679,680,861,33,728,32,30,29,26,738,23 school and Child Development Center 683, 905, 673, 674, 675, 676, 677, 678, 679, 680, 861, 33, 728, 32, 30, 29, 26, 28 St Anne's Episcopal School73,2 738, 23 29 St Georges Technical High School 142, 241, 244, 267, 302, 303, 309, 64, 65, 66, 67, 69, 771, 70, 72, 74 31 Stow Creek Township Elementary 1276,341,342

_______ School Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Townsend Elementary School &32 Townsend Ely Cihood C 709, 679, 680, 861, 33, 728, 32, 30, 29, 26, 738, 23 Townsend Early Childhood Center 33 Van Hook Walsh School Residence 876, 875, 874, 873, 511, 863, 64, 65, 66, 67 34 Woodland Country Day School 339, 340, 341, 342 35 New Jersey Transit-Route 1 486, 484, 483, 482, 481, 480, 479, 837, 1225, 836, 350, 276, 275, 273, 274, 304, 819, 305 36 New Jersey Transit-Route 2A 360, 391, 392, 393, 394, 335, 333, 334, 2, 332, 282, 283, 284, 285, 286 37 New Jersey Transit-Route 2B 286, 285, 284, 283, 282, 281, 844, 280, 279, 278, 820, 276, 275, 273, 274, 304, 819, 305 470, 741, 438, 437, 439, 440, 441, 443, 831, 834, 275, 273, 274, 304, 819, 38 New Jersey Transit-Route 3A30 305 39 New Jersey Transit-Route 3B 447, 446, 442, 443, 831, 350, 276, 275, 273, 274, 304, 819, 305 40 New Jersey Transit-Route 4 819, 304, 274, 1232, 1233, 458, 491 454, 455, 456, 457, 459, 460, 461, 462, 264, 265, 266, 268, 269, 270, 271, 272, 833, 445, 273, 274, 304, 819, 305 42 New Jersey Transit-Route 6 367, 368, 369, 370, 1277, 1276, 341, 342 43 New Jersey Transit-Route 7 826, 828, 824, 823, 822, 821, 377, 378 576, 575, 574, 573, 572, 571, 570, 569, 562, 561, 560, 559, 558, 557, 556, 722, 723, 788, 724, 725, 789, 726, 727, 31, 790, 30, 29, 26, 738, 23 4 D 579, 580, 581, 582, 583, 584, 585, 586, 587, 588, 589, 590, 591, 592, 593, 5 Delaware Brown Route 594, 595 46 Delaware Green Route 681, 682, 683, 684, 856, 45, 46, 785, 40, 786, 38, 36, 35, 28, 27, 857 47 Delaware Pink Route 1143, 547, 546, 794, 793, 792, 791, 795, 733, 734, 735, 739 48 Delaware Purple Route 1125, 1124, 873, 511, 863, 64, 65, 66, 67 49 Delaware Red Route 557, 1119, 1120, 39, 37, 708, 679, 680, 861, 33, 728, 32, 30, 29, 26, 738, 23 50 Blackbird Landing Group Home 37, 861, 33, 728, 32, 30, 29, 26, 738, 23 Connections Inc.51 Cadia Rehab-Broadmeadow 667, 668, 901 52 Children's Healthcare Center 820, 276, 275, 273, 274, 304, 819 Cornerstone Residential, Connections S97,598,599,600,601,930,666 Inc.54 Gateway Foundation Cottage 1 and 2 349, 597, 598, 599, 600, 601, 930, 666 55 Governor Bacon Health Center 596, 597, 598, 599, 600, 601, 930, 666 56 Home Health Care Services of NJ 275, 273, 274, 304, 819 57 Lower Alloways Creek Leisure 360, 359, 838, 839, 840, 841, 842, 843, 844, 280, 279, 1231, 458, 491 58 Midtown Rest Haven 276, 275, 273, 274, 304, 819 Middletown Residential Treatment 683,682,681,668,901 Center Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 B u R o u te 5 -.60 Silver Lake Day Treatment Center 683, 682, 681, 668, 901 Mosaic/Black Diamond & Clint Walker 29,26,738,23 Group Home, Connections Inc.62 Peoples Place Residential Group 1118, 33, 728, 32, 30, 29, 26, 738, 23 63 Old State Road Elementary/Spring 563, 787, 39, 37, 861, 33, 728, 32, 30, 29, 26, 738, 23________Meadow

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Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-7. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Arc of Salem County 45 15 0.6 9.1 4 Elsinboro Township School 45 15 5.2 8.5 37 John Fenwick Elementary School 45 15 2.1 5.6 23 Lower Alloways Creek Elementary School 45 15 5.8 45.0 8 Quinton Township Elementary School 45 15 4.3 45.0 6 Salem High School 45 15 2.9 4.3 40 Salem Middle School 45 15 2.0 4.4 27 CUBRLN CUNT SCHOL Morris Goodwin Elementary School 45 15 0.4 40.0 1 Stow Creek Township Elementary School 45 15 0.6 34.1 2 Woodland Country Day School 45 15 1.4 45.0 2 Advo Serv School 90 15 1.9 36.3 4 Alfred G. Waters Middle School 90 15 14.6 45.0 20 Appoquinimink Early Childhood Center 90 15 11.9 45.0 16 Bethesda Child Development Center 90 15 11.7 45.0 16 Brick Mill Elementary School 90 15 10.2 45.0 14 Cedar Lane Early Childhood Center 90 15 15.3 45.0 21 Cedar Lane Elementary School 90 15 15.5 45.0 21 Everett Meredith Middle School 90 15 11.9 45.0 16 Green Acres Preschool 90 15 10.3 45.0 14 Gunning Bedford Middle School 90 15 2.6 40.0 4 8.4 8.4 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.7 10.7 12 12 14 14 14 15 15 12.9 18 10.5 14 10.5 15 19.7 15.4 18.5 18.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 18.5 14.6 19.5 27 21 25 25 20 20 20 25 20 27 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Spring Meadow Early Childhood Center Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 40 Table 8-8. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Lower Alloways Creek Elementary School Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 James H. Groves Adult High School 100O z'U 12z.U 4U.0 18 Kathleen H. Wilbur Elementary School 100 20 0.2 39.8 1 Middletown High School 100 20 11.9 40.0 18 Old State Road Elementary School 100 20 8.4 40.0 13 Redding Middle School 100 20 11.2 40.0 17 Silver Lake Elementary School 100 20 11.5 40.0 18 Southern Elementary School 100 20 2.6 35.9 5 Spring Meadow Early Childhood Center 100 20 8.4 40.0 13 St Andrew's Pre-school and Child Development Center 100 20 5.5 36.7 9 St Andrew's School 100 20 5.5 36.7 9 St Anne's Episcopal School 100 20 9.5 37.2 16 St Georges Technical High School 100 20 5.4 36.6 9 Townsend Early Childhood Center 100 20 5.7 34.8 10 14.5 19.4 18.5 17.6 18.5 14.5 19.4 24.2 18.6 18.6 18.6 19.7 14.6 1AI 9;22 30 28 27 28 22 30 37 28 28 28 30 22 Townsend Elementarv School 1 nn 7n IA R in Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 0 Table 8-9. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Appoquinimink Early Childhood Center Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 0 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes o .-of Ln g 35 2 New Jersey Transit-Route 1 (NJT-1)19.4 36 2 New Jersey Transit-Route 2A (NJT-2A) 21.2 37 2 New Jersey Transit-Route 2B (NJT-2B) 23.6 38 2 New Jersey Transit-Route 3A (NJT-3A) 15.5 39 2 New Jersey Transit-Route 3B (NJT-3B) 6.1 40 2 New Jersey Transit-Route 4 (NJT-4) 5.5 41 1 New Jersey Transit-Route 5 (NJT-5) 4.4 42 1 New Jersey Transit-Route 6 (NJT-6) 9.0 43 1 New Jersey Transit-Route 7 (NJT-7) 14.0 44 6 Delaware Blue Route 23.8 45 8 Delaware Brown Route 34.1 46 16 Delaware Green Route 24.8 47 4 Delaware Pink Route 32.1 48 4 Delaware Purple Route 19.2 49 10 Delaware Red Route 23.7 TOA 1 6 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather NT-i 1 120 19.4 12.0 97 30 NJT-1 2 125 19.4 12.0 97 30 NJT-2A 1 120 21.2 45.0 28 30 NJT-2A 2 125 21.2 45.0 28 30 NJT-2B 1 120 23.6 14.4 98 30 NJT-2B 2 125 23.6 14.4 98 30 NJT-3A 1 120 15.5 9.4 99 30 NJT-3A 2 125 15.5 9.4 99 30 NJT-3B 1 120 6.1 7.3 50 30 NJT-3B 2 125 6.1 7.3 50 30 NJT-4 1 120 5.5 42.8 8 30 NJT-4 2 125 5.5 42.8 8 30 NJT-5 1 120 4.4 16.5 16 30 NJT-6 1 120 9.0 41.3 13 30 NJT-7 1 120 14.0 35.1 24 30 Blue 1 & 2 120 23.8 40.4 35 30 Blue 3 & 4 125 23.8 40.4 35 30 Blue 5 & 6 130 23.8 40.4 35 30 Brown 1 & 2 120 34.1 38.9 53 30 Brown 3 & 4 125 34.1 38.9 53 30 Brown 5 & 6 130 34.1 38.9 53 30 Brown 7 & 8 135 34.1 38.9 53 30 Green 1 & 2 120 24.8 45.0 33 30 4. 5 1U iz JU 4.9 7 5 10 32 30 8.5 11 5 10 40 30 8.5 11 5 10 40 30 4.9 7 5 10 38 30 4.9 7 5 10 38 30 4.9 7 5 10 32 30 4.9 7 5 10 32 30 5.3 7 5 10 17 30 5.3 7 5 10 17 30 7.3 10 5 10 17 30 7.3 10 5 10 17 30 3.6 5 5 10 12 30 13.0 17 5 10 31 30 6.0 8 5 10 31 30 4.2 6 5 10 40 30 4.2 6 5 10 39 30 4.2 6 5 10 39 30 13.3 18 5 10 70 30 13.3 18 5 10 70 30 13.3 18 5 10 70 30 13.3 18 5 10 70 30 4.2 6 5 10 39 30 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain NJT-I 1 130 19.4 7.4 157 40 4.9 7 5 10 37 40 NJT-1 2 135 19.4 11.3 103 40 4.9 7 5 10 37 40 NJT-2A 1 130 21.2 40.0 32 40 8.5 13 5 10 45 40 NJT-2A 2 135 21.2 40.0 32 40 8.5 13 5 10 45 40 NJT-2B 1 130 23.6 9.0 157 40 4.9 7 5 10 43 40 NJT-2B 2 135 23.6 13.5 105 40 4.9 7 5 10 43 40 NJT-3A 1 130 15.5 6.8 137 40 4.9 7 5 10 34 40 NJT-3A 2 135 15.5 9.7 96 40 4.9 7 5 10 34 40 NJT-3B 1 130 6.1 4.4 83 405.3 8 5 10 18 40 NJT-3B 2 135 6.1 6.9 53 40 5.3 8 5 10 18 NJT-4 1 130 5.5 39.0 9 40 7.3 11 5 10 21 NJT-4 2 135 5.5 39.0 9 40 7.3 11 5 10 NJT-5 1 130 4.4 12.9 20 40 3.6 NJT-6 1 130 9.0 37.4 14 40 13.0 19 5 10 33 31 NJT-7 1 130 14.0 31.8 26 40 6.0 9 5 10 35 40 Blue 1 & 2 130 23.8 34.2 42 40 4.2 6 5 10 43 32 Blue 3&4 135 23.8 33.6 42 40 4.2 6 5 10 43 40 Blue 5 & 6 140 23.8 36.3 39 40 4.2 6 5 10 43 33 Brown 1 & 2 130 34.1 35.3 58 40 13.3 20 5 10 78 33 Brown 3&4 135 34.1 35.3 58 40 13.3 20 5 10 78 40 Brown 1 5&6 140 34.1 35.3 58 40 13.3 20 5 10 78 34 Brown 7&8 145 34.1 35.3 58 40 13.3 20 5 10 78 40 Green 1&2 130 24.8 40.0 37 40 4.2 6 5 10 43 35 Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 is 0 0 Green 3&4 13S 24.8 40.0 37 40 4.2 6 5 10 43 40 Green 5 & 6 140 24.8 40.0 37 40 Green 7 & 8 145 24.8 39.7 38 40 Green 9 & 10 150 24.8 26.2 57 40 Green 11 & 12 155 24.8 26.2 57 40 Green 13 & 14 160 24.8 40.0 37 40 Green 15 & 16 165 24.8 40.0 37 40 Pink 1 & 2 130 32.1 35.8 54 40 Pink 3 & 4 135 32.1 35.8 54 40 Purple 1 & 2 130 19.2 29.9 39 40 Purple 3 & 4 135 19.2 30.8 37 40 Red 1&2 130 23.7 37.7 38 40 Red 3&4 135 23.7 36.9 39 40 Red 5 & 6 140 23.7 40.0 36 40'Red 7 & 8 145 23.7 38.5 37 40 4.2 6 5 10 43 36 4.2 6 5 10 43 40 4.2 6 5 10 43 37 4.2 6 5 10 43 40 4.2 6 5 10 43 38 4.2 6 5 10 43 40 5.4 8 5 10 61 40 5.4 8 5 10 61 40 13.3 20 5 10 49 41 13.3 20 5 10 49 40 4.2 6 5 10 42 42 4.2 6 5 10 42 40 4.2 6 5 10 42 43 4.2 6 5 10 42 40 Red 9 & 10 150 23.7 45.0 32 40 4.2 6 5 10 A')Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow NJT-1 1 140 19.4 13.3 88 50 4.9 8 5 10 42 50 NJT-1 2 145 19.4 12.7 92 50 4.9 8 5 10 42 50 NJT-2A 1 140 21.2 35.0 36 508.5 15 5 10 51 50 NJT-2A 2 145 21.2 35.0 36 50 8.5 15 5 10 51 so NJT-2B 1 140 23.6 15.6 91 50 4.9 8 5 10 49 50 NJT-2B 2 145 23.6 14.9 95 50 4.9 8 5 10 49 50 NJT-3A 1 140 15.5 10.7 87 50 4.9 8 5 10 41 50 NJT-3A 2 145 15.5 10.2 91 50 4.9 8 5 10 41 50 NJT-3B 1 140 6.1 8.4 43 50 5.3 9 5 10 22 50 NJT-3B 2 145 6.1 8.0 45 50 5.3 9 5 10 22 50 NJT-4 1 140 5.5 34.7 10 50 7.3 12 5 10 22 50 NJT-4 2 145 5.5 34.7 10 50 7.3 12 5 10 22 30 NJT-5 1 140 4.4 15.3 17 56 3.6 6 5 10 13 50 NJT-6 1 140 9.0 33.7 16 50 13.0 22 5 10 38 31 NJT-7 1 140 14.0 28.2 30 50 6.0 10 5 10 40 50 Blue 1 & 2 140 23.8 30.0 48 50 4.2 7 5 10 49 32 Blue 3 & 4 145 23.8 28.5 50 50 4.2 7 5 10 49 50 Blue 5 & 6 150 23.8 28.8 50 50 4.2 7 5 10 49 33 Brown 1 & 2 140 34.1 31.1 66 50 13.3 23 5 10 89 33 Brown 3&4 145 34.1 31.1 66 50 13.3 23 5 10 89 50 Brown 5 & 6 150 34.1 31.1 66 50 13.3 23 5 10 89 34 Brown 7 & 8 155 34.1 31.1 66 50 13.3 23 5 10 89 50 Green 1&2 140 24.8 35.0 43 50 4.2 7 5 10 50 35 Salem-Hope Creek NGS 8-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 0 0 0 Green 3&4 S 145 24.8 35.0 43 50 4.2 7 5 10 so 50 Green 5&6 145 24.8 35.0 43 50 4 Green 7 & 8 155 24.8 35.0 43 50 Green 9 & 10 160 24.8 35.0 43 50 Green 11 & 12 165 24.8 35.0 43 50 Green 13 & 14 170 24.8 35.0 43 50 Green 15 & 16 175 24.8 35.0 43 50 Pink 1 & 2 140 32.1 31.9 60 50 Pink 3&4 145 32.1 31.9 60 50 Purple 1 & 2 140 19.2 30.3 38 50 Purple 3 & 4 145 19.2 29.9 39 50 Red 1&2 140 23.7 33.2 43 50 Red 3&4 145 23.7 30.9 46 50 Red 5 & 6 150 23.7 31.4 45 50 Red 7&8 155 23.7 31.4 45 50 4.2 7 5 10 50 36 4.2 7 5 10 50 50 4.2 7 5 10 50 37 4.2 7 5 10 50 50 4.2 7 5 10 50 38 4.2 7 5 10 50 50 5.4 9 5 10 69 40 5.4 9 5 10 69 50 13.3 23 5 10 56 41 13.3 23 5 10 56 50 4.2 7 5 10 48 42 4.2 7 5 10 48 50 4.2 7 5 10 48 43 4.2 7 5 10 48 50 Red 9 & 10 160 23.7 45.0 32 50 4.2 7 5 10 48 44 Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather siaCKDirO Lanaing troup Home Connections Inc.Ambulatory 90 1 8 0 7 Cadia Rehab-Broadmeadow Ambulatory 90 1 17 0 11 Wheelchair bound 90 5 60 0 11 Clint Walker Group Home, Ambulatory 90 1 10 10 11 Connections Inc.Cornerstone Residential, Ambulatory 90 1 15 0 7 Connections Inc.Gateway Foundation Cottage 1 and 2 Ambulatory 90 1 20 20 8 Abltr901 12 0 8 Governor Bacon Health Center Ambulatory 90 Wheelchair bound 90 5 47 0 8 Mosaic/Black Diamond Wheelchair bound 90 5 5 0 7 Peoples Place Residential Group Ambulatory 90 1 10 0 7 Home for Boys Middletown Residential Treatment Ambulatory 90 1 10 0 13 Center Silver Lake Day Treatment Center Ambulatory 90 1 26 0 11 Van Hook Walsh Residence Ambulatory 1 2 0 10*Concurrent loading is used for mi minutes for an ambulance.

minutes for a wheelchair bus and 30 VV~llfM 1 tLUFFiiiFieb M~dRIFTIUMJ IUdUtIFI LIFFl1Cb IUI d UUb), Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 8-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 is Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain biaCKOirO Lanaing k.roup mome Connections Inc.Ambulatory 100 1 8 0 11 Cadia Rehab-Broadmeadow Ambulatory 100 1 17 0 13 Wheelchair bound 100 5 60 0 12 Clint Walker Group Home, Ambulatory 100 1 10 10 14 Connections Inc.Cornerstone Residential, Ambulatory Connections Inc.Gateway Foundation Cottage 1 and 2 Ambulatory 100 1 80 30 8 Ambulatory

______ 100 1 12 0 9 Governor Bacon Health Center Ambulatory 10_1120 _Wheelchair bound 100 5 47 0 9 Mosaic/Black Diamond Wheelchair bound 100 5 5 0 8 Peoples Place Residential Group Ambulatory 100 1 10 0 11 Home for Boys Middletown Residential Treatment Ambulatory 100 1 10 0 12 Center Silver Lake Day Treatment Center Ambulatory 100 1 26 0 12-1 ii!iii Van Hook Walsh Residence Ambulatory 100 1 2 0 11*Concurrent loading is used for multiple vehicles and determines maximum loading times: 30 minutes for a bus, 75 minutes for a wheelchair bus and 30 minutes for an ambulance.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Blackbird Landing Group Home Connections Inc.Ambulatory 110 1 8 0 10 Cadia Rehab-Broadmeadow Ambulatory 110 1 17 0 15 Wheelchair bound 110 5 60 0 19 Clint Walker Group Home, Ambulatory 110 1 10 10 16 Connections Inc.Cornerstone Residential, Ambulatory 110 1 15 0 9 Connections Inc.Gateway Foundation Cottage 1 and 2 Ambulatory 110 1 80 30 9 Governor Bacon Health Center Ambulatory 110 1 12 0 10 Wheelchair bound 110 5 47 0 10 Mosaic/Black Diamond Wheelchair bound 110 5 5 0 10 Peoples Place Residential Group Ambulatory 110 1 10 0 10 Home for Boys 10_0_10 Middletown Residential Treatment Ambulatory 110 1 10 0 14 Center Silver Lake Day Treatment Center Ambulatory 110 1 26 0 14 V;nn Wnne Wnkch IP iflan Ambulatory 110 1 2 0 11-toncurrent ioaaing is usea Tor mulripie venicies anc caetermines maximum Ioacing times: ju minutes tor a tus, /! minutes tor a wneeicnair ous ana iu minutes for an ambulance.

Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 0 8-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0 Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Normal 90 Buses 21 3 7 Rain [ 100 5 54 60 66 30 8 10 10 Snow 110 Normal 90 Wheelchair Buses 27 5 6 Rain 100 5 45 50 55 25 8 9 10 Snow 110.4- I. 4 4 4. I.Normal 30 Ambulances 2 1 2 Rain ISnow 1 40 15 10 11 13 15 7 8 50 z:4.1y __j Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 8-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include:* Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).

• Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T.

All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version." A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are: 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.The terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.

There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.

For example:* A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.

• An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.Salem-Hope Creek NGS 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process: 1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the state emergency management agencies in their existing emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment.

This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion.

Any critical intersections that are not identified in the existing state emergency plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs 3. A field survey of the highway network within 15 miles of the power plant. The schematics describing traffic control at suggested additional TCPs, which are presented in Appendix G, are based on data collected during field surveys, upon large scale maps, and on overhead imagery.4. Consultation with emergency management and law enforcement personnel.

Trained personnel who are experienced in controlling traffic and are aware of the likely evacuation traffic patterns should review the control tactics at the suggested additional TCPs.5. Prioritization of TCPs.Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant.These priorities should be assigned by state emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.

It is recommended that the control tactics identified in the schematics in Appendix G be reviewed by the state emergency management agencies, and local and state police. Specifically the number and locations of the suggested additional TCPs should be reviewed in detail, and the indicated resource requirements should be reconciled with current assets.The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS)can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information.

DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information.

Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins his trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.Salem-Hope Creek NGS 9-2 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing TCP locations in the state emergency plans as being controlled by actuated signals. See Section 1.3 for additional information.

Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> has elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.

9-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Salem-Hope Creek NGS Evacuation Time Estimate 9-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0