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Kld TR-541, Rev. 1, Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Plant Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report
	ML13023A028
Person / Time
Site:	Vermont Yankee File:NorthStar Vermont Yankee icon.png
Issue date:	12/18/2012
From:	; KLD Engineering, PC
To:	; NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Entergy Nuclear Operations
Shared Package
ML130230023	List: CNRO-2012-00013, Kld TR-502, Rev. 1, Waterford 3 Steam Electric Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report; ML13023A006; ML13023A023; ML13023A024; ML13023A025; ML13023A028; ML13023A031; ML13023A035; ML13023A048; ML13023A070; ML13023A072; ML13023A073;
References
	CNRO-2012-00013, ENOC-2012-00038 KLD TR-541, Rev 1
	Download: ML13023A028 (456)
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December2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-541 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforEntergy,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 11.2TheVermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantLocation.................................................................1 31.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 51.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy..............................................................................................1 92STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 83.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 113.4Employees...............................................................................................................................

.3 153.5MedicalFacilities......................................................................................................................3 193.6TotalDemandinAddi tiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 193.7SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 193.8SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 214ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtotheVYNPPStudyArea........................................................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Freeways............................................................................................................................4 74.3.4Intersections......................................................................................................................4 84.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 85ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background...............................................................................................................................

.5 15.2Fundam entalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 125.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 135.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 176DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 17.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................7 17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 17.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 27.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 3 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 47.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 57.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 58TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 48.3MedicalFacilityDemand............................................................................................................8 48.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................8 58.5SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................8 109TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUATIONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 111SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS...........................................................................11 112CONFIRMATIONTIME..................................................................................................................12 1A.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 13C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 13C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 13C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C 16D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.SPECIALFACILITYDATA......................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.2.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F 4F.2.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F 9F.2.3TimeDistributionResults.....................................................................................................F 13F.3Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 16G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1G.1TrafficandAccessControlPoints..............................................................................................G 1H.EVACUAT IONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.CommunityBOUNDARIES..................................................................................................................L 1 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentio nallyskipped VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofFiguresFigure1 1.VYNPPLocation.......................................................................................................................1 4Figure1 2.VYNPPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork.......................................................................................1 7Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.VYNPPEPZ...............................................................................................................................3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 6Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 7Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 9Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector...................................................................................................3 10Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 13Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 14Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 17Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 18Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams............................................................................................................4 9Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 11Figure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................5 15Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 20Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributions...................................5 22Figure6 1.VYNPPEPZCommunities........................................................................................................6 5Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................7 16Figure7 2.VYNPPShadowRegion..........................................................................................................7 17Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................7 18Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 19Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 20Figure7 6.CongestionPa tternsat3HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 21Figure7 7.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03......................................................7 22Figure7 8.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03......................................................7 22Figure7 9.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03......................................................7 23Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................7 23Figure7 11.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03....................................................7 24Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR0 3....................................................7 24Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 15.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 16.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................7 26Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................7 27Figure7 18.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................7 27Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03..................................................7 28Figure7 20.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario14forRegionR03..................................................7 28Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................8 12Figure8 2.VermontTransit DependentBusRoutes..............................................................................8 13Figure8 3.NewHampshireTransitDependentBusRoutes...................................................................8 14Figure8 4.MassachusettsTransit DependentBusRoutes.....................................................................8 15Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandHostSchools..................................................10 2Figure10 2.MajorEvacuationRoutes....................................................................................................10 3 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 5FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 7FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 15FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ............................................................................................................E 7FigureE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 8FigureE 3.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 9FigureE 4.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 10FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 4FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 5FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 6FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F 6FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F 7FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 8FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 9FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation.............................................................................F 10FigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets.........................................................................................F 11FigureF 10.HouseholdsevacuatingwithPetstoReceptionCenters....................................................F 11FigureF 11.HouseholdswithServiceAnimals........................................................................................F 12FigureF 12.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithServiceAnimalstoReceptionCenters...................................F 12FigureF 13.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..............................................................F 13FigureF 14.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F 14FigureF 15.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 15FigureF 16.TimetoClearDrivewayof6" 8"ofSno w...........................................................................F 16FigureG 1.TrafficandAccessControlPointsfortheVYNPP..................................................................G 2FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 6.RegionR06...........................................................................................................................H 10FigureH 7.RegionR07...........................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H 12FigureH 9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H 13FigureH 10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H 14FigureH 11.RegionR11.........................................................................................................................H 15FigureH 12.RegionR12.........................................................................................................................H 16FigureH 13.RegionR13.........................................................................................................................H 17FigureH 14.RegionR14.........................................................................................................................H 18FigureH 15.RegionR15.........................................................................................................................H 19FigureH 16.RegionR16.........................................................................................................................H 20FigureH 17.RegionR17.........................................................................................................................H 21FigureH 18.RegionR18.........................................................................................................................H 22FigureH 19.RegionR19.........................................................................................................................H 23FigureH 20.RegionR20.........................................................................................................................H 24 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 21.RegionR21.........................................................................................................................H 25FigureH 22.RegionR22.........................................................................................................................H 26FigureH 23.RegionR23.........................................................................................................................H 27FigureH 24.RegionR24.........................................................................................................................H 28FigureH 25.RegionR25.........................................................................................................................H 29FigureH 26.RegionR26.........................................................................................................................H 30FigureH 27.RegionR27.........................................................................................................................H 31FigureH 28.RegionR28.........................................................................................................................H 32FigureH 29.RegionR29.........................................................................................................................H 33FigureH 30.RegionR30.........................................................................................................................H 34FigureH 31.RegionR31.........................................................................................................................H 35FigureH 32.RegionR32.........................................................................................................................H 36FigureH 33.RegionR33.........................................................................................................................H 37FigureH 34.RegionR34.........................................................................................................................H 38FigureH 35.RegionR35.........................................................................................................................H 39FigureH 36.RegionR36.........................................................................................................................H 40FigureH 37.RegionR37.........................................................................................................................H 41FigureH 38.RegionR38.........................................................................................................................H 42FigureH 39.RegionR39.........................................................................................................................H 43FigureH 40.RegionR40.........................................................................................................................H 44FigureH 41.RegionR41.........................................................................................................................H 45FigureH 42.RegionR42.........................................................................................................................H 46FigureH 43.RegionR43.........................................................................................................................H 47FigureH 44.RegionR44.........................................................................................................................H 48FigureH 45.RegionR45.........................................................................................................................H 49FigureH 46.RegionR46.........................................................................................................................H 50FigureH 47.RegionR47.........................................................................................................................H 51FigureH 48.RegionR48.........................................................................................................................H 52FigureH 49.RegionR49.........................................................................................................................H 53FigureH 50.RegionR50.........................................................................................................................H 54FigureH 51.RegionR51.........................................................................................................................H 55FigureH 52.RegionR52.........................................................................................................................H 56FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 8FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 8FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J 9FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J 9FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5).................................................................................................................................................................J 10FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)..............J 10FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J 11FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8).............................J 11FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)..............J 12FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,We ekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)...........................J 12FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11).........................J 13FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12).................................................................................................................................................................J 13 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Weekend,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)............................................................................................................................................J 14FigureJ 14.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)............................................................................................................................................J 14FigureK 1.VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantLink NodeAnalysisNetwork.....................................K 2FigureK 2.Li nk NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K 3FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2.....................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K 9FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Gri d8...................................................................................K 10FigureK 10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K 11FigureK 11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K 12FigureK 12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K 13FigureK 13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K 14FigureK 14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K 15FigureK 15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K 16FigureK 16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K 17FigureK 17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K 18FigureK 18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K 19FigureK 19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K 20FigureK 20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K 21FigureK 21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K 22FigureK 22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K 23FigureK 23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K 24FigureK 24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K 25FigureK 25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K 26FigureK 26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25...............................................................................K 27FigureK 27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26...............................................................................K 28FigureK 28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27...............................................................................K 29FigureK 29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28...............................................................................K 30FigureK 30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29...............................................................................K 31FigureK 31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30...............................................................................K 32FigureK 32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31...............................................................................K 33FigureK 33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32...............................................................................K 34FigureK 34.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33...............................................................................K 35FigureK 35.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34...............................................................................K 36FigureK 36.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35...............................................................................K 37FigureK 37.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36...............................................................................K 38FigureK 38.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37...............................................................................K 39FigureK 39.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38...............................................................................K 40FigureK 40.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39...............................................................................K 41FigureK 41.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40...............................................................................K 42FigureK 42.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid41...............................................................................K 43FigureK 43.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid42...............................................................................K 44 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 44.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid43...............................................................................K 45FigureK 45.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid44...............................................................................K 46FigureK 46.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid45...............................................................................K 47FigureK 47.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid46...............................................................................K 48FigureK 48.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid47...............................................................................K 49FigureK 49.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid48...............................................................................K 50FigureK 50.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid49...............................................................................K 51FigureK 51.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid50...............................................................................K 52 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantixKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 1Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 5Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons............................................................................................................1 9Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 7Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyCommunity................................................3 5Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 8Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 12Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 16Table3 6.VYNPPEPZExternalTraffic.....................................................................................................3 20Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 22Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 23Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoClear6" 8"ofSnow......................................................5 10Table5 7.MappingDistributionstoEvents............................................................................................5 12Table5 8.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 13Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuation.....................5 19Table5 10.TripGeneratio nHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.......................5 21Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions...........................................................................................6 3Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 6Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 7Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario..................................................................................................6 8Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation...........................7 8Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 10Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 12Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 13Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 14Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................8 16Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................8 17Table8 3.HostSchools...........................................................................................................................8 18Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemand............................................................................................8 19Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 20Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 21Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................8 23Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain...............................................................................8 25Table8 9.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow.............................................................................8 27Table8 10.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes........................................................................8 29Table8 11.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................8 30Table8 12.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................8 31Table8 13.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow.......................................................8 32 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantxKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 14.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather.............................................8 33Table8 15.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain..............................................................8 34Table8 16.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow............................................................8 35Table8 17.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates....................................8 36Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation..............12 2TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 8TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E 2TableE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 3TableE 3.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 4TableE 4.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 5TableF 1.VermontYanke eTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan.................................................................F 3TableH 1.PercentofCommunityPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion.............................................H 2TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 4TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J 5TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1).................................................................................................................................................J 5TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J 6TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 53TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled...........................................K 98TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTi meEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheVermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant(VYNPP)locatedinVernon,VT.ETEarepartoftherequiredplanningbasisandprovideEntergyandStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveAc tiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMA REP 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. 10CFR50,AppendixE-"EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities"OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinDecember,2012andextendedoveraperiodof12months.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingswithEntergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateagencies. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010.StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheVYNPP,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetwork. Synthesizedthisinformationtocreateananal ysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweenth eEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey. Datacollectionforms(providedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting)werereturnedwithdatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andspecialfacilitiesineachstate.Telephonecallstospecificfacilitiessupplementedthedataprovided. Thetrafficdemandan dtrip generationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimated VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1fromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto18communities.Thesecommunitiesarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof52EvacuationRegions. Thetime varyingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain,Snow).Onespecialevent,theStrollingoftheHeifersinBrattleboro,VT,wasconsidered.OneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonInterstate91northboundforthedurationoftheevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5mileswereevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: ArapidlyescalatingaccidentattheVYNPPthatquicklyassumesthestatusofGeneralEmergencysuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisvirtuallycoincidentwiththesirenalert,andnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemen ted. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthestatedpercentageofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisa pplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncentersorhostschoolslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtono tpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthestatesevacuationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllikewisebeevacuatedwithpublictransit,asneeded:bus,van,orambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEarecalculatedforthetransit dependentevacuees,forhomeboundspecialneedspopulation,andforthoseevacuatedfromspecialfacilities.ComputationofETEAtotalof728ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe52EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatregion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe14EvacuationScenarios(52x14=728).Sepa rateETEarecalculatedfortransit dependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacua teinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofETEassumesthat20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidetheimpactedregionwillelectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.TheimpedancethatcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.Stagedevac uationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter in place.Once90%ofthe2 mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillev acuate(non compliance)eventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter in place.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Eachlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuat ionmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),thensimulatesthetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatesth eratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofthepopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.Thesestatisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.Theuseofapublicoutreach(information)programtoemphasizetheneedforevacueestominimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(securethehome,as sembleneededclothes,medicines,etc.)shouldalsobeconsidered.TrafficManagementThisstudyreferencesthecomprehensivetrafficmanagementplansprovidedbythestatesand VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiescriticalintersections.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformofFiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6 1displaysamapoftheVYNPPEPZshowingthelayoutofthe18communitiesthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3 1presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachcommunitybasedonthe2010Censusdata. Table6 1definesea chofthe52EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofcommunities. Table6 2liststheEvacuationScenarios. Tables7 1and7 2arecompilationsofETE.The sedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherregionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Tables7 3and7 4presentETEforthe2 milere gionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table8 7presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. Table8 11presentsETEforthetransit dependentpopulationingoodweather. FigureH 8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.Mapsofal lregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor728uniquecases-acombinationof52uniqueEvacuationRegionsand14uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheETErangefrom2:15(hr:min)to2:55atthe90 thpercentile. InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile(seeFigures7 7through7 20.).Thisisduetothefactthatthelast10percentofthepopulationdoesn'tcompletetheirmobilizationactivitiesuntilapproximately2hoursafterthe90 thpercentileETE.WhilethereiscongestionwithintheEPZduringevacuation,itdissipatespriortotheendofmobilization,asisdisplayedinFigure7 6. InspectionofTable7 3andTable7 4indicatesthatastagedevacuationprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles.SeeSection7.6foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios3and13inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-theStrollingoftheHeifers-haslittleimpactontheETEforthe90 thpercentile,resultingin15minuteincreasesforthe5 mileRegionandfullEPZ.SeeSection7.5foradditional VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1discussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonI 91fromthelatitudewiththeplanttotheinterchangewithPutneyLandingRoad(Exit4)-impactstheETE,atthe90 thpercentilelevel,forsomeregions.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. BrattleboroandMarlboroarethemostcongestedcommunitiesintheEPZ.AllcongestionwithintheEPZclearsaround3hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 6. SeparateETEwerecomputedforschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpers ons,homeboundspecialneedspersonsandcorrectionalfacilities.TheaveragesinglewaveETEforthesefacilitiesarewithinasimilarrangeasthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile.SeeSection8. Table8 5indicatesthatthereareenoughtransportationresourcestoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZinasinglewave.SeeSections8.4and8.5. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileisinsensitivetoreductionsinthebasetripgenerationtime,from41/2hoursto21/2hours.However,the100 thpercentileETEaresensitivetotruncatingthetailofthemobilizationtimedistribution.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion.SeeTableM 2. Apopulationincreaseof45%resultsinanETEchangewhichmeetsthecriteriaforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.SeeSectionM.3.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.VYNPPEPZCommunities VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationCommunity2000Population2010PopulationBernardston2,1552,130Brattleboro12,00512,063Chesterfield3,5423,604Colrain563525Dummerston1,9151,864Gill509721Greenfield454460Guilford2,0462,102Halifax782733Hinsdale4,0824,050Leyden772712Marlboro1,080Northfield2,5692,722Richmond1,0771,149Swanzey684425Vernon2,1412,196Warwick148141Winchester4,1444,338TOTAL39,58841,015EPZPopulationGrowth:3.6%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionWindDirectionFrom:SectorCommunitiesVermont NewHampshireMassachusetts BrattleboroDummersto nGuilfordHalifaxMarlboroVernonChesterfieldHinsdaleRichmondSwanzeyWinchesterBernardsto

nColrainGillGreenfieldLeydenNorthfieldWarwickR012 MileRegionxxR025 MileRegionxxxxxxxR03FullEPZxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5MilesR04NNW,NR,AxxxxxR05NNEBxxxxxxNECSeeRegionR02R06ENE,ED,ExxxxxR07ESESSEF,G,HxxxxR08S,SSWJ,KxxxxxR09SWLxxxxxxR10WSWNWM,N,P,QxxxxEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles(Unstable)R11NNW,NR,AxxxxR12NNEBxxxxxR13NEEC,D,ExxxxESESSEF,G,HSeeRegionR07SJSeeRegionR08R14SSWWK,L,M,NxxxWNW,NWP,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles(Neutral)NNWNNER,A,BSeeRegionR11NE,ENEC,DSeeRegionR13R15EExxxESESSEF,G,HSeeRegionR07R16SJxxxSSWWK,L,M,NSeeRegionR14WNW,NWP,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles(Stable)NNWNNER,A,BSeeRegionR04NECSeeRegionR02ENESD,E,F,G,H,JSeeRegionR07SSWKSeeRegionR08SWLSeeRegionR09WSWNWM,N,P,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto10Miles(Unstable)R17NAxxxxxxxR18NNEBxxxxxxxxxR19NECxxxxxxxR20ENE,ED,ExxxxxxxR21ESEFxxxxxR22SEGxxxxxxR23SSEHxxxxxxR24SJxxxxxxR25SSWKxxxxxxxR26SWLxxxxxR27WSWMxxxxxxR28WNxxxxxxR29WNWPxxxxxxR30NWQxxxxxR31NNWRxxxxxx VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RegionWindDirectionFrom:SectorCommunitiesVermont NewHampshireMassachusetts BrattleboroDummersto nGuilfordHalifaxMarlboroVernonChesterfieldHinsdaleRichmondSwanzeyWinchesterBernardsto

nColrainGillGreenfieldLeydenNorthfieldWarwickEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto10Miles(Neutral)R32NAxxxxxxR33NNEBxxxxxxxxNECSeeRegionR19ENEDSeeRegionR20R34EExxxxxxESEFSeeRegionR21R35SEGxxxxxSSEHSeeRegionR23R36SJxxxxxR37SSWKxxxxSWLSeeRegionR26WSWMSeeRegionR27R38WNxxxxxWNWPSeeRegionR29NWQSeeRegionR30NNWRSeeRegionR31Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto10Miles(Stable)R39WNNEN,P,Q,R,A,BxxxxxxR40NECxxxxxxxxxxR41ENEDxxxxxxxESE,F,G,H,JSeeRegionR23R42SSWKxxxxxxxR43SWLxxxxxxxxxR44WSWMxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesR45NNW,NR,AxxxxxR46NNEBxxxxxxR47NECxxxxxxxR48ENE,ED,ExxxxxR49ESESSEF,G,HxxxxR50S,SSWJ,KxxxxxR51SWLxxxxxxR52WSWNWM,N,P,Qxxxx5 MileRegionSeeRegionR47KeyCommunitiesEvacuateCommunitiesShelter in PlaceShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendMiddayGoodStrollingoftheHeifers14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonI 91NB1Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummer Winter Winter WinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEvening Midday MiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR012:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R022:252:252:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:40R032:252:302:202:202:152:252:302:552:202:202:452:152:352:452 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R052:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R062:252:252:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R072:202:252:152:202:152:202:252:452:152:202:352:152:302:45R082:202:252:152:202:152:202:302:452:152:202:352:152:302:45R092:202:252:152:202:152:252:252:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R102:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:352:152:202:20R112:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:352:152:202:352:152:202:20R122:202:202:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R132:202:202:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:402:152:202:20R142:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:402:152:152:352:152:202:20R152:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:352:152:202:20R162:202:252:152:202:152:202:252:452:152:202:352:152:302:402 MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundary R172:202:252:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R182:202:252:202:202:152:202:252:402:202:202:352:152:202:20R192:202:202:202:202:152:202:202:402:202:202:352:152:202:20R202:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:352:152:202:352:152:202:20R212:202:252:152:202:152:202:252:502:152:202:352:152:302:45R222:202:252:152:202:152:252:252:502:152:202:402:152:352:45R232:252:302:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:352:45R242:252:252:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:40R252:252:252:152:202:152:252:252:502:152:202:402:152:302:40 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummer Winter Winter WinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEvening Midday MiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR262:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:302:152:202:20R272:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:302:152:202:20R282:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:302:152:202:20R292:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:402:152:152:352:152:202:20R302:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:402:152:152:352:152:202:20R312:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R322:202:202:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R332:202:252:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R342:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:302:152:152:302:152:202:20R352:252:302:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:352:45R362:252:252:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R372:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:302:152:202:20R382:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:302:152:202:20R392:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R402:252:302:202:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:452:152:302:45R412:252:302:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R422:252:252:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R432:252:302:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R442:202:252:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20StagedEvacuation 2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles R452:452:502:452:502:502:452:503:202:452:453:202:502:452:45R462:452:502:452:502:502:452:503:202:452:503:202:502:452:45R472:553:003:003:003:002:553:003:352:553:003:403:002:503:00R482:553:003:003:053:052:553:003:353:003:053:403:052:503:05R493:003:003:053:053:103:003:003:353:003:053:403:052:503:05R502:553:003:003:053:052:553:003:353:003:053:403:052:503:05R512:553:003:003:003:002:553:003:352:553:003:403:002:503:00R522:452:502:452:452:502:452:453:202:452:453:202:452:452:45 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummer Winter Winter WinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEvening Midday MiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:402 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R094:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R104:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R114:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R124:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R134:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R144:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R154:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R164:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:352 MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundary R174:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R184:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R194:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R204:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R214:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R224:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R234:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R244:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R254:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummer Winter Winter WinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEvening Midday MiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR264:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R274:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R284:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R294:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R304:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R314:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R324:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R334:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R344:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R354:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R364:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R374:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R384:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R394:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R404:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R414:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R424:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R434:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R444:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40StagedEvacuation 2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles R454:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R464:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R474:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R484:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R494:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R504:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R514:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R524:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR012:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R022:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:15R032:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:152 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R052:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R062:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:15R072:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:15R082:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:15R092:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:15R102:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR452:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R462:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R472:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:302:152:202:252:152:202:20R482:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:302:152:202:252:152:202:20R492:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:302:152:202:252:152:202:20R502:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:302:152:202:252:152:202:20R512:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:302:152:202:252:152:202:20R522:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R034:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:302 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R064:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R074:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R084:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R094:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R104:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR454:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R464:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R474:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R484:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R494:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R504:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R514:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R524:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoH.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoH.S.(hr:min)VERMONTSCHOOLSAcademySchool901510.455.0112:0013.3202:20AustineSchool901511.655.0132:0013.3202:20BrattleboroAreaMiddleSchool901514.844.5202:053.962:15BrattleboroUnionHighSchool901511.047.0142:0013.3202:20CommunityCollegeofVermont90157.553.281:5513.3202:15CommunityHighSchoolofVermont90158.153.291:5513.3202:15CommunityHouseSchool90158.951.9101:5513.3202:15DummerstonSchool90152.653.731:5013.6202:10GreenStreetSchool901510.155.0112:0013.3202:20GuilfordCentralSchool901515.955.0172:0513.3202:25HalifaxWestSchool90154.039.161:5556.0843:20HilltopMontessoriSchool901511.755.0132:0013.3202:20MarlboroCollege90157.316.8262:1551.9783:35MeadowsSchool901510.655.0122:0013.3202:20OakGroveSchool901511.347.0142:0013.3202:20SaintMichaelSchool90158.952.4101:5513.3202:15VernonElementarySchool901515.248.8192:0513.3202:25WorldLearningSchool90158.152.991:5513.3202:15NEWHAMPSHIRESCHOOLSChesterfieldCentralSchool90156.450.681:554.972:05HinsdaleElementarySchool901514.647.2192:053.962:15HinsdaleMiddle/HighSchool901514.847.2192:053.962:15SaintBenedictCenter90157.548.391:5511.3172:15WinchesterSchool90156.630.7132:008.2122:15 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoH.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoH.S.(hr:min)MASSACHUSETTSSCHOOLSBernardstonElementarySchool90152.344.731:505.992:00ColrainCentral90153.141.441:505.892:00FullCircleSchoolInc90154.255.051:506.192:00GillElementarySchool90152.040.031:503.962:00GivingTreeSchoolInc90151.440.021:5018.5282:20NorthfieldElementarySchool90158.551.6101:554.262:05NorthfieldMountHermonSchool90157.451.191:5517.1262:25PearlERhodesElementarySchool90154.428.991:554.262:05PioneerValleyRegionalSchool90156.455.071:554.262:05WarwickCommunitySchool90150.349.601:4522.6342:20MaximumforEPZ:2:15Maximum:3:35AverageforEPZ:2:00Average:2:20 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherRouteNumberBusGroupNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)VT1112020.044.027303:0013.32051076305:25215020.045.027303:3013.32051075305:50VT2112018.641.527303:0026.84051093306:00215018.641.227303:3026.84051093306:30VT3112016.831.232303:0551.978510126307:15215016.839.226303:3051.978510126307:40VT411205.848.97302:4056.084510100306:3021505.849.17303:1056.084510100307:00NH1112018.545.524302:553.9651058304:45215018.545.424303:253.9651058305:15NH211207.548.89302:4014.42251042304:3021507.549.49303:1014.42251042305:00NH3112013.234.923302:558.21251055304:50215013.234.823303:258.21251055305:20NH4112015.547.719302:5011.31751060304:55215015.548.119303:2011.31751060305:25MA111208.629.018302:504.7751037304:2021508.629.617303:204.7751038304:55MA211207.144.110302:405.9951029304:0511507.144.010303:105.9951029304:35MA3212010.951.013302:454.7751036304:15115010.951.113303:154.7751036304:45MA421209.239.514302:458.61351040304:2511509.240.814303:158.61351041304:55MaximumETE:3:30MaximumETE:7:40AverageETE:3:05AverageETE:5:25 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantES 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheVermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant(VYNPP),locatedinVernon,Vermont.ETEprovideStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionEntergyMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagenciesStateEmergencyManagementAgenciesMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagenciesStatePoliceAgenciesandDepartmentsofTransportationObtainexistingtrafficmanagementplans1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromEntergy.b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromLtMSP,VermontEM,NHDOT,NHHSEM,NHDOT,MEMA,MassDOTan dEntergytoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatrafficconditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andShadowRegion.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromthe2010census,stateandlocalagencies.e. ConductedarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.f. Conductedadatacollectionefforttoidentifyanddescribeschools,specialfacilities,majoremplo yers,transportationproviders,andotherimportantinformation.2. EstimateddistributionsofTripGenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelepho nesurvey.3. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.4. Reviewedtheexistingtrafficmanagementplantobeimplementedbylocalandstatepoliceintheeventofanincidentattheplant.Trafficcontrolisappliedatspecif iedTrafficControlPoints(TCPs)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. Usedexistingcommunitiestodefineevacuationregions.TheEPZispartitionedinto18communitiesalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguouscommunitiesforwhichETEareca lculated.Theconfigurationsoftheseregionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.Eachregion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsat"SpecialFacilities"andfortransit dependentpersonsathome.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystem.a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,Entergyandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapa cityManual(HCM 1)tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelink noderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. Calculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachregionandforeachscenario.1HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1e. Specifiedselectedcandidatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationoftheVYNPP.8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltodetermineoptimalevacuationroutingandcomputeETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,medicalfacilities,etc.),forthetransit dependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.1.2 TheVermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantLocationTheVYNPPislocatedalongwesternshoreoftheConnecticutRiverintheTownofVernon,VT.Thesiteisapproximately45milesnorthofSpringfield,MAand16milessouthwestofKeene,NH.TheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)consistsofpartsofWindhamCounty,VT,Ch eshireCounty,NH,andFranklinCounty,MA.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingtheVYNPP.Thismapidentifiesthecommunitiesintheareaandthemajorroads.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.VYNPPLocation VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewaysections,avalueof2250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereobserved,thesignalcontrolattheintersect ionwasconsideredpre timedanddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakentogatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateel ementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.VYNPPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DT A),modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbased,anddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuati onTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationoftheVYNPP.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthataredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthese VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1countermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththe2005study.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: Vehicleoccupancyandtrip generationratesarebasedontheresultsofanewtelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Voluntaryandshadowevacuationsareconsider edatdifferentpercentages. Dynamicevacuationmodelingofactuatedsignalsandtrafficcontrolpoints.Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasis2000USCensusData,extrapolatedto2005Population=40,483ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused.Population=41,015ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancyBasedonresidentialtelephonesurvey,Statespecificrangefrom1.28vehiclesperhouseholdinVYandNHto1.21vehiclesperhouseholdinMA2.43persons/household,1.33evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:1.82persons/vehicle.EmployeePopulationEmploymentjourneytoworkdataidentifiedtheproportionofemployeeswhocommuteintotheEPZrelativetothetotalnumberofemployees.TheseproportionswereappliedonaTownbyTownbasistototalemploymentinformationfortheyear2000.1.14personspervehicleforVT,1.11forNHandMA.Employees=6,911Employeeestimatesbasedon2010censesJourneytoWorkdataforVTandNH.FacilitydatausedforMA.1.05employeespervehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults.Employees=5,295TransitDependentPopulationDefinedashouseholdswithnovehiclesandhouseholdswith1or2vehicleswithcommuterswhodonotreturnhome.Householdsizevariesbystateandnumberofvehiclesinhouseholds.Population=1,718EstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Atotalof1,389peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring47busestoevacuate.Anadditional163homeboundspecialneedspersonsneededspecialtransportationtoevacuate(106requiredabus,51requiredawheelchair accessiblevehicleand6requiredanambulance).

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTransientPopulationBasedonanalysisofmonthlytrafficpatternsonI 91andRoute9Transients=12,582TransientestimatesbaseduponinformationprovidedabouttransientattractionsinEPZ,telephonecallsplacedtofacilities,andestimations.Transients=4,760SpecialFacilitiesPopulationSpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachstatewithintheEPZ.Currentcensus=403BusesRequired=8WheelchairBusRequired=41AmbulancesRequired=10SpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachstatewithintheEPZ.Currentcensus=514BusesRequired=15WheelchairBusRequired=15AmbulancesRequired=9SchoolPopulationSchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachstatewithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=7,718Busesrequired=118SchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachstatewithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=13,657Busesrequired=146VoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuated50percentofpopulationwithinthecircularportionoftheregion,35percentinannularringbetweenthecircleandtheEPZboundary.20percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)ShadowEvacuationPopulationinareasbetweentheEPZboundaryandthebalanceoftownspartiallywithintheEPZ.Inaddition,thetownofMarlboro,VTisincludedintheshadowregions.30percentassumedvoluntaryevacuationrate.20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFigure7 2)NetworkSize1,793links;852nodes1,286links;926nodesRoadwayGeometricDataFieldsurveysconductedin2004.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2000HCM.FieldsurveysconductedinDecember2010.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedHostSchool.DirectevacuationtodesignatedHostSchool.Ridesharing50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTripGenerationforEvacuationBasedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and180minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and120minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and90minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Basedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and270minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween10and240minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween5and90minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherClear,RainorSnowNormal,Rain,orSnow.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forsnow.ModelingIDYNEVSystem:TRADandPCDYNEVDYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.14.0SpecialEventsStrollingoftheHeifers,MudSeasonStrollingoftheHeifersSpecialEventPopulation=4,115additionaltransientsEvacuationCases44Regionsand13Scenariosproducing572uniquecases.52Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and14Scenariosproducing728uniquecases.EvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedfor50 th ,90 th ,95 thand100 thpercentileforallregions.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90 thand100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZ,90 thpercentileWinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:2:45SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:2:10WinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:2:25 SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:2:20 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.2.1 DataEstimates1. PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebasedupondataobtainedfromtheU.S.CensusBureauJourneytoWorkdata.3. Populationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromstateemergencymanagementagenciesandfromphonecallstospecificfacilities.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCapacityManu al2010.5. PopulationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanalysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. Therelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromthetelephonesurvey.Averagevaluesof2.43personsperhouseholdand1.33evacuatingvehiclespe rhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandemployeesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.05employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. Parks:Vehicleoccupancywasassumedtobetheaveragehouseholdsizeof2.43people.c. SpecialEven ts:AssumedtransientsattendingtheStrollingoftheHeiferstravelasfamilies/householdsinasinglevehicle,andusedtheaveragehouseholdsizeof2.43d. personstoestimatethenumberofvehicles.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofcommunitiesthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002.3. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.4. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyofthecommunitiesincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.5. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).6. Atotalof14"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherco nditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareoutlinedinTable2 1.7. Scenario14considerstheclosureofasinglelanenorthboundonInterstate 91fromthelatitudeoftheplanttotheendoftheEPZatPutneyLandingRoad(Exit4).8. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 1).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.1Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweek MiddayGood None2SummerMidweek Midday Rain None3SummerWeekend MiddayGood None4SummerWeekend Midday Rain None5SummerMidweek,Weekend EveningGoodNone6WinterMidweek MiddayGood None7WinterMidweek Midday Rain None8WinterMidweek Midday Snow None9WinterWeekend MiddayGood None10WinterWeekend Midday Rain None11WinterWeekend Midday Snow None12WinterMidweek,Weekend EveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendMiddayGoodStrollingoftheHeifers 14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonI 91NB2Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccidentthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofcommunitiesformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 66percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1co mmuter;41percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore27percent(66%x41%=27%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacuationtrip.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderationof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.5. AccessControlPoints(ACP)willbestaffedwithinapproximately120minutesfollowingthesirennotifications,todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofACPlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis120minutetimeperiod.6. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningattheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytrav elerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17. Buseswillbeusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedhostschools.b. Itisassumedparentswillpickupchildrenatdaycarecenterspriortoevacuation.c. Buses,wheelchairvansandambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoReceptionCenters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolisinsession,aregivenpriorityinassignin gtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredround trips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.8. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthegeneralpopulationtoreceptioncent ersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillride sharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 3 ,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.9. Twotypesofadverseweatherscenariosareconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios;snowoccursinwinterscenariosonly.Itisassumedthattherainorsnowbeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepresentintheEPZisassumed.Itisassumedthatroadsarepassableandthattheappropriateagenciesareplowingtheroadsastheywouldnormallywhensnowing.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 4;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.

3InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswithotherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).4Agarwal,M.et.Al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant2 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport70studentsperbusforelementaryschools(60forMA)and50studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools(40forMA),basedondiscussionswithstateemergencymanagementagencies.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30peopleperbus.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationRain90%90%NoEffectSnow80%80%Cleardrivewaybeforeleavinghome(SeeFigureF 16)*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsoftheVYNPPEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythreedistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetobusinesseswithintheEPZonadailybasis.Estimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachcommunityandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationrose).TheVYNPPEPZissubdividedinto18communities.Th eEPZisshowninFigure3 1.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.43persons/household-SeeFigureF 1)andthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.33vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 8)wereadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.TheestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbythecommunityandEPZboundaries.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatewhatthepopulationiswithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacrossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ,bycommunitybasedonthismethodology.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaverag ehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable3 2.Figure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromtheVYNPP.This"rose"wasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbeargue dthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductionca nbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforatwoweekperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasi s,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.VYNPPEPZ VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationCommunity2000Population2010PopulationBernardston2,1552,130Brattleboro12,00512,063Chesterfield3,5423,604Colrain563525Dummerston1,9151,864Gill509721Greenfield454460Guilford2,0462,102Halifax782733Hinsdale4,0824,050Leyden772712Marlboro1,080Northfield2,5692,722Richmond1,0771,149Swanzey684425Vernon2,1412,196Warwick148141Winchester4,1444,338TOTAL39,58841,015EPZPopulationGrowth:3.6%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyCommunityCommunity2010Population2010ResidentVehiclesBernardston2,1301,165Brattleboro12,0636,607Chesterfield3,6041,972Colrain525290Dummerston1,8641,022Gill721342Greenfield460253Guilford2,1021,154Halifax733406Hinsdale4,0502,220Leyden712391Marlboro1,080557Northfield2,7221,495Richmond1,149634Swanzey425234Vernon2,1961,203Warwick14179Winchester4,3382,381TOTAL41,01522,405 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromtheVYNPP(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuatingvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthatfortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesN2,189868NNE911497NE4,1392,266ENE3,8292,102E3620ESE330183SE645357SSE1,236678S7,1273,899SSW17,9869,670SW892490WSW574318W149WNW00NW272149NNW454251TOTAL40,63421,757 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.Dataforthesefacilitieswasprovidedbythestates,obtainedfr omtelephonecalls,orestimatedbasedonsimilarfacilitiesorparkinglotsize.TheVYNPPEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiesthatattracttransients,including: LodgingFacilities-1,813transients,900vehicles Marinas-64transients,25vehicles Campgrounds-2,176transients,558vehicles(somebuses) GolfCourses-212transients,148vehicl es Parks-195transients,76vehicles Retail-300transients,150vehiclesAppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE 3presentsthenumberoftransientsvisitingrecreationalareas,whileTableE 4presentsth enumberoftransientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table3 4presentstransientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbycommunity.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddistancefromtheplant.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesCommunityTransientsTransientVehiclesBernardston9352Brattleboro1,686813Chesterfield475212Colrain00Dummerston38062Gill00Greenfield00Guilford14960Halifax4020Hinsdale287112Leyden00Marlboro19735Northfield19952Richmond506114Swanzey00Vernon00Warwick00Winchester748325TOTAL4,7601,857 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.4 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.DataobtainedfromtheUSCensusLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsfromtheOnTheMapCensusanalysistool 1wereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZ.The2010WorkplaceAreaCharacteristicdatawasalsoobtainedfromthiswebsiteandwasusedtodeterminethenumberofemployeesbyCensusBlockwithintheVYNPPEPZ.SincenotallemployeesareworkingatfacilitieswithintheEPZatonetime,ama ximumshiftreductionwasapplied.TheWorkAreaProfileReport,alsooutputbytheOnTheMapApplication,breaksdownjobswithintheEPZbyindustrysector.AssumingmaximumshiftemploymentoccursMondaythroughFridaybetween9AMand5PM,thefollowingjobstakeplaceoutsidethetypical9 5wo rkday: Manufacturing-13.7%ofjobs;takesplaceinshiftsover24hours Arts,Entertainment,andRecreation-0.5%ofjobs;takesplaceineveningsandonweekends AccommodationsandFoodServices-6.2%ofjobs;peaksintheeveningsThemaximumshiftintheEPZisabout79.6%(100%13.7%0.5%6.2%=79.6%).Thisvaluewasappliedtothetotalemploymentin2010torepresentthemaximumnumberofemployeespresentintheEPZatanyonetime.TheInflow/OutflowreportfortheEPZwasthenusedtocalculatethepercentofemployeesthatworkwithintheEPZbutliveoutside.Thisvalue,46.9%,wasappliedtothemaximumshiftemployeevaluestocomputethenumberofpeoplecommutingintotheEPZtoworkatpeaktimes.Table3 5showstheemployeesthatcommutefromoutsidetheEPZduringthemaximumshift.Thevehicleoccupancyof1.05employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(seeFigureF 7)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajoremployers.Table3 5presentsnon EPZresidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbycommunity.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector.1http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesCommunityEmployeesEmployeeVehiclesBernardston00Brattleboro3,7053,538Chesterfield326314Colrain00Dummerston127124Gill00Greenfield00Guilford170164Halifax1818Hinsdale204197Leyden00Marlboro9288Northfield1211Richmond3231Swanzey99Vernon382364Warwick00Winchester218211TOTAL5,2955,069 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 MedicalFacilitiesDatawereprovidedbythecountiesforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.TableE 2inAppendixEsummarizesthedatagathered.Section8detailstheevacuationofmedicalfacilitiesandtheirpatients.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesthatneedtobeprovideddependonthepatients'stateofhealth.Itisestimatedthatbusescantransportupto30people;wheelchairvans,upto4people;wheelchairbusesupto15people;andambulances,upto2people.3.6 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(external externaltrips)atthetimeofanaccident.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.ThesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ-I 91andRoute2.Itisassumedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoenterth eEPZduringthefirst120minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.TheAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby2hours(accesscontrolpoints-ACP-areassumedtobeactivatedat120minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,th ereare5,014vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternal externaltripspriortotheactivationoftheACPandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and12)asdiscussedinSection6.3.7 SpecialEventOnespecialevent(Scenario13)isconsideredfortheETEstudy-theStrollingoftheHeifers.Accordingtotheeventwebsite,theeventisattendedbytensofthousands,soitisassumedthatthepeakattendanceattheeventis20,000.Itisadditionallyassumedthat50%oftheseattendeesliveoutsideoftheEPZan dtraveltotheeventasahouseholdunitinasinglevehicle.Therefore,theaveragehouseholdsizeof2.43wasusedforvehicleoccupancy.Atotalof4,115vehicleswereincorporatedatvariousparkinglocationsforthisspecialevent.Thespecialeventvehicletripsweregeneratedutilizingthesamemobilizationdistributionsfortransients.Publictransportationisnotprovidedforthiseventandwasnotconsideredinthespecialeventanalysis.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.VYNPPEPZExternalTrafficUpNodeDnNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2DFactor 2HourlyVolumeExternalTraffic80033I 91NB17,9000.1160.51,0382,076807272I 91SB17,9000.1160.51,0382,0768154154Route2WB7,3050.1180.5431862TOTAL: 5,0141 HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20112 HCM2010 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.8 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandisprovidedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.Thissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissection.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof74,686pe opleand39,151vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandCommunityResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees SpecialFacilitiesSchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalBernardston2,130689300208002,499Brattleboro12,0633881,6863,7053489,4680027,658Chesterfield3,6041164753260401004,922Colrain5251700011000652Dummerston1,864603801270185002,616Gill72123000793001,537Greenfield46014000000474Guilford2,102681491700144002,633Halifax73324401806500880Hinsdale4,0501302872040666005,337Leyden712230004600781Marlboro1,08035197920300001,704Northfield2,72287199120723003,743Richmond1,1493750632040001,764Swanzey42514090000448Vernon2,19671038299152002,900Warwick14140006100206Winchester4,33813974821867295005,805Shadow0000008,12708,127Total41,0151,3184,7605,29551413,6578,127074,686NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant3 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandCommunityResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees SpecialFacilitiesSchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalBernardston1,165452008001,229Brattleboro6,607148133,538471260011,145Chesterfield1,9728212314012002,518Colrain2904000400298Dummerston1,02206212406001,214Gill34200004200384Greenfield2530000000253Guilford1,154146016406001,398Halifax406420180200450Hinsdale2,22016112197024002,569Leyden3914000200397Marlboro557035880400684Northfield1,49545211034001,596Richmond6340114310200781Swanzey2340090000243Vernon1,203140364126001,599Warwick79000040083Winchester2,38183252111010002,945Shadow0000004,3515,0149,365Total22,405941,8575,069692924,3515,01439,151NOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,snow,fog,windspeed,ice)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentand20percentforrainandsnow,respectively.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacit ymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeinters ectionswhereflowcanbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsortur nbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobecomethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theex istingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedinthestateemergencyplansareextensiveandwereadoptedwithoutchange.Theperlanecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutes VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1movement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecutingmovement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycl e;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:

2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexityofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtotheVYNPPStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade) FreewaysEachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15TwolaneroadscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"Clas sI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 FreewaysRef:HCMChapters10,11,12,13Chapter10oftheHCM2010describesaprocedureforintegratingtheresultsobtainedinChapters11,12and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewa ycomponents.Chapter10alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomaticallyperformsthisintegrationprocess.Chapter11oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSfor"BasicFreewaySegments".Exhibit11 17oftheHCM2010presentscapacit yvs.freespeedestimates,whichareprovidedbelow.FreeSpeed(mph):55606570+Per LaneCapacity(pc/h):2250230023502400Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,free speedsandcapacitybasedonfieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtime varyingspeedsbasedondemand:capacityrelationships.Aconservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof2250pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyforfreeways,asshowninAppendixK.Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapa city,speed,densityandLOSforfreewayweavingsections.Thesimulationmodelcontainslogicthatrelatesspeedtodemandvolume:capacityratio.ThevalueofcapacityobtainedfromthecomputationalproceduresdetailedinChapter12dependsonthe"Type"andgeometricsoftheweavingsegmentan donthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).Chapter13oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacitiesoframpsandof"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofarampfreewayjunction:Thecapacityofthefreewayimmediatelydownstreamofanon ramporimmediatelyupstreamofanoff ramp;thecapacityoftheramproadway;andthemaximumflowrateenteringtherampinfluencearea.Inmostcases,thefreewaycapacityisthecontrollingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit13 8oftheHCM2010,anddependonthenumberoffreewaylanesandonthefreewayfreespeed.RampcapacityispresentedinExhibit13 10andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficinaccordwiththeproceduresinCh apter13oftheHCM2010.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemandrelativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly).

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3.4 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Whereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersect ionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuat edsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contra flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChap ter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"ThesystemunderstudyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.Itisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicat ethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantof VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant4 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink. Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREGCR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundIngeneral,anaccidentatanuclearpowerplantischaracterizedbythefollowingEmergencyClassificationLevels(seeAppendix1ofNUREG0654fordetails):1. UnusualEvent2. Alert3. SiteAreaEmergency4. GeneralEmergencyAteachlevel,theFederalguidelinesspecifyasetofActionstobeundertakenbyth eLicensee,andbyStateandLocaloffsiteauthorities.AsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingaccidentwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterthesirennotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Itislikelythatalongertimewillel apsebetweenthevariousclassesofanemergency.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthiscase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhenth eAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenalert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthan VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately474squaremilesandisengagedinawidevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromonei ndividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevacuationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertr avelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivingnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbyteleph one,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.Itisimportanttonotethattheshapeanddurationoftheevacuationtripmobilizationdistributionisimportantatsiteswheretrafficcongestionisnotexpectedtocausetheevacuationtimeestimatetoextendintimewellbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Theremainingdiscussionwillfocusonth eapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4N/ASnowClearance 5 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.Ahousehold VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1withintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbeforebeginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowtheseco ndsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweekendsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).TransientswillalwaysfollowoneofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicat edway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprecedingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthisstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccu rstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave,orremovingsnowonlyafterthepreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)that87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified0 0%5 7%10 13%15 27%20 47%25 66%30 87%35 92%40 97%45 100%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00%3595%551%4096%1072%4596%1582%5097%2086%5597%2586%60100%3095%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00%4593%512%5093%1030%5593%1548%6096%2062%7597%2569%9098%3085%10599%3586%120100%4089%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate00%1516%3059%4565%6082%7587%9088%10588%12094%13597%15097%16597%18099%195100%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.5,SnowClearanceTimeDistributionInclementweatherscenariosinvolvingsnowfallmustaddressthetimelagsassociatedwithsnowclearance.Itisassumedthatsnowequipmentismobilizedanddeployedduringthesnowfalltomaintainpassableroads.Thegeneralconsensusisthatthesnowplowingeffortsaregenerallysuccessfulforallbutthemostextremeblizzardswhentherateofsnowaccumulationexceedsthatofsnowclearanceoveraperiodofmanyhours.Consequently,itisreasonabletoassumethatthehighwaysystemwillremainpassable-albeitatalowercapacity-underthevastmajorityofsnowconditions.Nevertheless,forthevehiclestogainaccesstothehighwaysystem,itmaybenecessaryfordrivewaysandempl oyeeparkinglotstobeclearedtotheextentneededtopermitvehiclestogainaccesstotheroadways.Theseclearanceactivitiestaketime;thistimemustbeincorporatedintothetripgenerationtimedistributions.Thesedataareprovidedbythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 6.Notethatthoserespondents(49%)whoansweredthattheywouldnottaketimetocleartheirdrivewaywereassumedtobereadyimmediatelyatthestartofthisactivity.Essentiallytheywoulddrivethroughthesnowonthedrivewaytoaccesstheroadwayandbegintheirevacuationtrip.Table5 6.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoClear6" 8"ofSnowElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentCompletingSnowRemovalElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentCompletingSnowRemoval049%10594%1560%12097%3079%13599%4585%15099%6090%16599%7593%180100%9094%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210 PercentofPopulationCompletingMobilizationActivityElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHomeTimetoClearSnow VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table5 7presentsthesummingpr oceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 7.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5DistributionsCand5DistributionEEvent5DistributionsDand5DistributionFEvent5Table5 8presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).ETimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip,aftersnowclearanceactivities(Event5).FTimedistributionofresidentswithnocommutersreturninghome,leavingtobegintheevacuationtrip,aftersnowclearanceactivities(Event5).5.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor500responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnon VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1parametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciplesareused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome,clearsnow)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 7,Table58);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles;4) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterth an3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3.6) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bo thveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,no ta"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturning,nosnoworsnowineach).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,using0.0%10.0%20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.537.542.5 47.552.557.5 67.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1weightingbasedupontheprobabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,C,D,EandF.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter;snowclearancefollowsthepreparationfordeparture,andsoforth.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,C,D,EandF,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother,aretabulatedinTable5 9(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(15)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Communitiescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. Communitiescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethe2mileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuateth e2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationincommunitiesbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoption savailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthecommunitiescomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*,isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltrip saregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance).

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenon sheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*is2:15fornonsnowscenariosand2:45forsnowscenarios.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. Residentswithoutreturningcommutersc. Residentswithreturningcommutersandsnowconditionsd. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersandsnowconditionsFigure5 5presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommuters;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeis135minutesforgoodweatherand165minutesforsnowscenarios.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,20%ofthepopulation(whonormallywouldhavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesforanun stagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationtime,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 10providesthetripgenerationhistogramsforstagedevacuation.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)ResidentsWithCommutersSnow(DistributionE)ResidentsWithoutCommutersSnow (DistributionF)115 8% 8% 0% 1% 0% 1%

215 39% 39% 0% 9% 0% 4%

315 36% 36% 4% 25% 2% 15%

415 11% 11% 11% 24% 6% 17%

515 3% 3% 18% 14% 12% 15%

615 3% 3% 17% 10% 13% 13%

730 0% 0% 25% 6% 25% 14%

815 0% 0% 6% 2% 9% 4%

930 0% 0% 9% 6% 13% 7%

1030 0% 0% 5% 1% 8% 5%

1115 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 2%

1230 0% 0% 3% 1% 5% 2%

1330 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0%

1460 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1%

15600 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionsCandEforgoodweatherandsnow,respectively. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300330360 PercentofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersReswithCommandSnowResnoCommwithSnow VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table510.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)ResidentsWithCommutersSnow(DistributionE)ResidentsWithoutCommutersSnow (DistributionF)115 0% 0% 0% 0%

215 0% 2% 0% 1%

315 1% 5% 0% 3%

415 2% 5% 2% 3%

515 4% 3% 2% 3%

615 3% 2% 3% 3%

730 5% 1% 5% 3%

815 1% 0% 1% 1%

930 74% 79% 3% 1%

1030 5% 1% 72% 77%

1115 1% 1% 3% 2%

1230 3% 1% 5% 2%

1330 1% 0% 2% 0%

1460 0% 0% 2% 1%

15600 0% 0% 0% 0%

TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 9)isthesameforUnstagedandStagedEvacuation.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant5 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300330360

%ofPopulationEvacuatingElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersReswithCommandSnowResnoCommwithSnowStagedResidentswithCommutersStagedResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommuters(Snow)StagedResidentswithnoCommuters(Snow)

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofevacuationregionandevacuationscenario.Thedefinitionsof"region"and"scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingcommunitiesthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergenc y.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Atotalof52regionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupingsofcommunitiesconsidered.TheseregionsaredefinedinTa ble6 1.Thecommunities'configurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesector basedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,aspe rNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thecentralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesfromtheplant(RegionsR04throughR16)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR17throughR44).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,respectively.RegionsR45throughR52areidenticaltoRegionsR04,R05R02andR06throughR 10,respectively;however,thosecommunitiesbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2 mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.Atotalof14scenarioswereevaluatedforallregions.Thus,thereareatotalof52x14=728evacuationcases.Table6 2isadescriptionofallscenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeac hscenario.Table6 4presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThevehicleestimatespresentedinSection3arepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentages

,suchthattheaveragepopulationisconsideredforeachevacuationcase.ThescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 3,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.ThepercentagespresentedinTable6 3weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof66%(thenumberofho useholdswithatleastonecommuter)and41%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommuterthatwouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.Employmentisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedontheestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedthatonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeakduringwinterweekendsandless(70%)duringtheweek.AsshowninAppendixE,thereisasignificantamountoflodgingandcampgroundsofferingovernightaccommodationsintheEPZ;thus,transientactivityisestimatedtobehighduringeveninghours-40%forsummerand80%forwinter.Transientactivityonsummerweekendsisestimatedtobe50%.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 3,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheshadowregionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshado wregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 4forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:Onespecialevent-StrollingoftheHeifers-wasconsideredasScenario13.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario13,and0%forallotherscenarios.Itisestimatedthatsummerschoolandcollegeenrollmentisapproximately10%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearforsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Schoolisnotinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolsareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsandcollegesareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbusesforthetransit dependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentpopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.Externaltraf ficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionWindDirectionFrom:SectorCommunitiesVermont NewHampshireMassachusetts BrattleboroDummerstonGuilfordHalifaxMarlboroVernonChesterfieldHinsdaleRichmondSwanzeyWinchesterBernardstonColrainGillGreenfieldLeydenNorthfieldWarwickR012 MileRegionx x R025 MileRegionxx x x x xx R03FullEPZxxx x x x x x x x xxxx x x xEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles R04NNW,NR,Ax x x xx R05NNEBx x x x xx NECSeeRegionR02 R06ENE,ED,Exx x x xR07ESESSEF,G,Hxx x x R08S,SSWJ,Kxx x x x R09SWLxx x x x x R10WSWNWM,N,P,Qx x x xEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles(Unstable)

R11NNW,NR,Ax x xx R12NNEBx x x xx R13NEEC,D,Ex x x xESESSEF,G,HSeeRegionR07 SJSeeRegionR08 R14SSWWK,L,M,Nx x xWNW,NWP,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles(Neutral)NNWNNER,A,BSeeRegionR11 NE,ENEC,DSeeRegionR13 R15EEx x x ESESSEF,G,HSeeRegionR07 R16SJxx x SSWWK,L,M,NSeeRegionR14WNW,NWP,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles(Stable)NNWNNER,A,BSeeRegionR04 NECSeeRegionR02 ENESD,E,F,G,H,JSeeRegionR07 SSWKSeeRegionR08 SWLSeeRegionR09 WSWNWM,N,P,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto10Miles(Unstable)

R17NAx x xxx x x R18NNEBx x x xxxx x x R19NECx x x xxx x R20ENE,ED,Ex x x x xxx R21ESEFxx x x x R22SEGxxx x x x R23SSEHxxx x x x R24SJxxx x x x R25SSWKxxx x x x x R26SWLx x x x x R27WSWMx x x x x x R28WNx x x x x x R29WNWPx x x x x x R30NWQx x x x x R31NNWRx x xxx x VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RegionWindDirectionFrom:SectorCommunitiesVermont NewHampshireMassachusetts BrattleboroDummerstonGuilfordHalifaxMarlboroVernonChesterfieldHinsdaleRichmondSwanzeyWinchesterBernardstonColrainGillGreenfieldLeydenNorthfieldWarwickEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto10Miles(Neutral)R32NAx x xxx x R33NNEBx x xxxx x x NECSeeRegionR19 ENEDSeeRegionR20 R34EEx x x x xx ESEFSeeRegionR21 R35SEGxxx x x SSEHSeeRegionR23 R36SJxxx x x R37SSWKx x x x SWLSeeRegionR26 WSWMSeeRegionR27 R38WNx x x x x WNWPSeeRegionR29 NWQSeeRegionR30 NNWRSeeRegionR31Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto10Miles(Stable)R39WNNEN,P,Q,R,A,Bx x x xxx R40NECxxx x x x x xxx R41ENEDxxx x x x x ESE,F,G,H,JSeeRegionR23 R42SSWKxxx x x x x R43SWLxxx x x x x xx R44WSWMx x x x xxx StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesR45NNW,NR,Ax x x xx R46NNEBx x x x xx R47NECxx x x x xx R48ENE,ED,Exx x x xR49ESESSEF,G,Hxx x x R50S,SSWJ,Kxx x x x R51SWLxx x x x x R52WSWNWM,N,P,Qx x x x 5 MileRegionSeeRegionR47 KeyCommunitiesEvacuateCommunitiesShelter in Place Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.VYNPPEPZCommunities VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendMiddayGoodStrollingoftheHeifers14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonI 91NB1Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployees TransientsShadow SpecialEventsCollegesSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic127%73%96%50%24%0%10%10%100%100%227%73%96%50%24%0%10%10%100%100%33%97%10%50%20%0%0%0%100%100%43%97%10%50%20%0%0%0%100%100%53%97%10%40%20%0%0%0%100%40%627%73%100%70%25%0%100%100%100%100%727%73%100%70%25%0%100%100%100%100%827%73%100%70%25%0%100%100%100%100%93%97%10%100%20%0%0%0%100%100%103%97%10%100%20%0%0%0%100%100%113%97%10%100%20%0%0%0%100%100%123%97%10%80%20%0%0%0%100%40%1327%73%96%50%24%100%10%10%100%100%1427%73%96%50%24%0%10%10%100%100%ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees.................................................EPZemployeeswh oliveoutsidetheEPZTransients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow......................................................Residentsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTraffic.............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbyaccesscontrolapproximately2hoursaftertheevacuationbegins.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant6 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadowSpecialEventsCollegeVehiclesSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles16,02316,3824,8669295,2961829945,01438,65126,02316,3824,8669295,2961829945,01438,651360221,8035079294,450945,01433,399460221,8035079294,450945,01433,399560221,8035077434,450942,00630,20566,02316,3825,0691,3005,336180292945,01439,69076,02316,3825,0691,3005,336180292945,01439,69086,02316,3825,0691,3005,336180292945,01439,690960221,8035071,8574,450945,01434,3271060221,8035071,8574,450945,01434,3271160221,8035071,8574,450945,01434,3271260221,8035071,4864,450942,00630,948136,02316,3824,8669295,2964,1151829945,01442,766146,02316,3824,8669295,2961829945,01438,651Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover52regionswithintheVYNPPEPZandthe14EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTabl e7 4.Table7 5definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZincommunitiesforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeeni ssued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevoluntaryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendationhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevac uationfromwithintheimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEfortheVYNPPEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpeoplelocatedincommunitiesoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,areassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedthat20percentofthosepeopleintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof40,634peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4fo rthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion,travelingawayfromtheVYNPPlocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingevacuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculat ionsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Communitiescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12. Communitiescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared.3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofth e2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 6illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthesummer,midweek,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario1).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However ,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedinthesefiguresbyathickredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.Congestiondevelopsrapidlyaroundconcentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecks.Figure7 3displaysth edevelopingcongestionaroundthelargestpopulationcenterofBrattleboro,VT,tothenorthwestoftheplantjust30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).NotethatInterstate 91(I 91),whichisservicingtheexternal externaltripsandtheenteringev acuatingtrips,hasheavydemand(LOSD)onthesectionexitingtheEPZtothenorth.Significantcongestionneverexistswithina2mileradiusofthe VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1plant.AtonehouraftertheATE,Figure7 4displaysfully developedcongestionwithintheEPZ.InBrattleboro,queuesformasvehiclesawaitaccessontoI 91on rampsnorthbound.ManyvehicleschoosenottotakeI 91andtravelwestonRoute9intoMarlboro,northwestonRoute30intoDummerston,ornorthonUS 5.Inthesouth,congestionexistsasvehiclesev acuateoutofNorthfieldandwaittogainaccesstoRoute2.Attwohours,asshowninFigure7 5,theonlycongestionleftwithintheEPZisinBrattleboroandMarlboro.Atthistime,allemployeesandtransientshavemobilized,over80%ofresidentshavemobilized,andexternaltraffichasceasedduetoaccesscontrolpoints.InBrattleboro,congestionpersistsonCanalStreetwherevehiclesfromdensely populatedneighborhoodsinsouthernBrattleborowaittoaccessI 91northboundatExit1.Similarly,vehicleswaitonUS 5northboundjustsouthoftheBrattleboroRoundaboutthatgivesaccesstoI 91atExit3.InMarlboro,Route9westboundhassomesignificantgradeanddirectionalchangesresultinginalowerroadwaycapacity,slowertraveltimes,andincreasedcongestion.MostresidentsofWestBrattleboroarenotabletoaccessI 91duetoatrafficcontrolpointatRoute9andOrchardStreetandchoosetoevacuateonRoute9west bound.AtthreehoursaftertheATE,Figure7 6showsthefinalcongestiononRoute9inMarlboro.TrafficcongestionwithintheEPZclearsat3:30aftertheATEandthefinalvehicleevacuatesat4:10.7.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 7throughFigure7 20.Th esefiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioco nsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 7,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegintoevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclea ratthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeuntiltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1andTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall52EvacuationRegionsandall14EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3andTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2Mileregionforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Thetablesareorganizedasfollows:TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 6.MostoftheEPZdoesnotexperiencecongestion,sothe90 thpercentileETEdoesnotvarygreatlybetweenregions.Onaverage,the90 thpercentileETEforthefullEPZisonly10minuteslongerthanthe2 mileRegion.The100 thpercentileETEforallregionsandforallscenariosarethesamevaluesasthemobilizationtimes.ThisfactimpliesthatthecongestionwithintheEPZdissipatespriortotheendofmobilization,asisdisplayedinFigure7 6.ComparisonofScenarios3and13inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-theStrollingoftheHeif ers-haslittleimpactontheETEforthe90 thpercentile,resultingin15minuteincreasesforthe5mileRegionandfullEPZ.Theadditional4,115vehiclespresentforthespecialeventincreasecongestiononthelocalroadsinBrattleboroandontherampstoI91.However,excesscapacityalongI 91isstillavailablesothedelayisnotsevere.ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesth attheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonI 91fromthelatitudewiththeplanttotheinterchangewithPutneyLandingRoad(Exit4)-impactstheETE,atthe90 thpercentilelevel,forsomeregions.ForregionsnotincludingBrattleboro,thereisnochangeinETE.ForregionsincludingBrattleboro,theETEincreasesfrom15to25minutes.ThisisduetothelargepopulationinBrattleborothatusesI 91toevacuate.WithalaneclosedonI 91northbound,thecapa cityisreducedtohalf,increasingcongestionandprolongingETE.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TheresultsoftheroadwayimpactscenarioindicatethateventssuchasadverseweatherortrafficaccidentswhichclosealaneonI 91,couldimpactETE.Undersuchconditions,stateandlocalpolicecouldconsidertrafficmanagementtacticssuchasusingtheshoulderoftheroadwayasatravellaneorre routingoftra fficalongotherevacuationroutestoavoidoverwhelmingI 91.AlleffortsshouldbemadetoremoveanyblockageonI 91,particularlywithinthefirst21/2hoursoftheevacuation.7.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3andTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEcompiledfortheconcurrent(un staged)andstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR45throughR52ar ethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR04,R05,R02andR06throughR10,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,itmustbeshownthattheETEforthe2 MileRegioncanbereducedwithoutsignificantlyaf fectingtheregionbetween2milesand5miles.Inallcases,asshowninthesetables,theETEforthe2mileregionisunchangedwhenastagedevacuationisimplemented.Thereasonforthisisthatthecongestionwithinthe5 mileareadoesnotextendupstreamtotheextentthatitpenetratestowithin2milesoftheVYNPP.Consequently,theimpedance,duetothiscongestionwithinthe5 milearea,toevacueesfromwithinthe2 mileareaisnotsufficienttomateriallyinfluencethe90 thpercentileETEforthe2 milearea.Therefore,stagingtheevacuationtosharplyreducecongestionwithinthe5 milearea,providesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2 mileRegionandinsomecasesunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles.Whilefailingtoprovideassistancetoevacueesfromwithin2milesoftheVYNPP,stagingcanproduceanegativeimpactontheETEforthoseevacuatingfromwi thinthe5 milearea.AcomparisonofETEbetweenRegionsR45throughR52withRegionsR04,R05,R02andR06throughR10,respectively;revealsthatstagingretardsthe90 thpercentileETEforthoseinthe2to5 mileareabyupto65minutes(seeTable7 1).ThisextendingofETEisduetothedelayinbeginningtheevacuationtrip,experiencedbythosewhoshelter,plustheeffectofthetrip generation"spike"(significantvolumeoftrafficbeginningtheevacuationtripatthesametime)thatfollowstheireventualATE,increatingcongestionwithintheEPZareabeyond2miles.Insummary,thestagedevacuationprotectiveactionstrategyprovidesnobenefitsandadverselyimpactsmanyevacueeslocatedbeyond2milesfromtheVYNPP.7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain Snow* SpecialEvent StrollingoftheHeifers RoadClosure(onelaneonI 91SBisclosed)* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhilethes eScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawi nterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(10)forrainapply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andsnowarenotexplicitlyid entifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(8)and(11)forsnowapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellin gto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewinddirection).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation:fromN,NNE,NE-* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.Theapplic abledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(RegionR01) To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR16) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R17throughR45)

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* EnterTable7 5andidentifytheapplicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthedistancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromtheVYNPP.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionoftheplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* Identifytherowinthi stablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes.ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10 that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionisfromthenortheast(NE).* Windconditionsareunstableandspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea2 mileradiusanddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 5andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto10Miles(Unstable)"forwinddirectionfromtheNE(towardtheSW)andreadRegionR19inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR19.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR19;itcontainstheETEvalueof2:20.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummer Winter Winter WinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEvening Midday MiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR012:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R022:252:252:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:40R032:252:302:202:202:152:252:302:552:202:202:452:152:352:452 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R052:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R062:252:252:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R072:202:252:152:202:152:202:252:452:152:202:352:152:302:45R082:202:252:152:202:152:202:302:452:152:202:352:152:302:45R092:202:252:152:202:152:252:252:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R102:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:352:152:202:20R112:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:352:152:202:352:152:202:20R122:202:202:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R132:202:202:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:402:152:202:20R142:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:402:152:152:352:152:202:20R152:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:352:152:202:20R162:202:252:152:202:152:202:252:452:152:202:352:152:302:402 MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundary R172:202:252:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R182:202:252:202:202:152:202:252:402:202:202:352:152:202:20R192:202:202:202:202:152:202:202:402:202:202:352:152:202:20R202:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:352:152:202:352:152:202:20R212:202:252:152:202:152:202:252:502:152:202:352:152:302:45R222:202:252:152:202:152:252:252:502:152:202:402:152:352:45R232:252:302:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:352:45R242:252:252:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:40R252:252:252:152:202:152:252:252:502:152:202:402:152:302:40 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummer Winter Winter WinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEvening Midday MiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR262:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:302:152:202:20R272:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:302:152:202:20R282:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:302:152:202:20R292:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:402:152:152:352:152:202:20R302:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:402:152:152:352:152:202:20R312:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R322:202:202:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R332:202:252:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R342:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:302:152:152:302:152:202:20R352:252:302:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:352:45R362:252:252:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R372:202:202:152:152:152:202:202:352:152:152:302:152:202:20R382:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:302:152:202:20R392:202:202:152:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20R402:252:302:202:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:452:152:302:45R412:252:302:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R422:252:252:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R432:252:302:152:202:152:252:302:502:152:202:402:152:302:45R442:202:252:202:202:152:202:202:402:152:202:352:152:202:20StagedEvacuation 2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles R452:452:502:452:502:502:452:503:202:452:453:202:502:452:45R462:452:502:452:502:502:452:503:202:452:503:202:502:452:45R472:553:003:003:003:002:553:003:352:553:003:403:002:503:00R482:553:003:003:053:052:553:003:353:003:053:403:052:503:05R493:003:003:053:053:103:003:003:353:003:053:403:052:503:05R502:553:003:003:053:052:553:003:353:003:053:403:052:503:05R512:553:003:003:003:002:553:003:352:553:003:403:002:503:00R522:452:502:452:452:502:452:453:202:452:453:202:452:452:45 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummer Winter Winter WinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEvening Midday MiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:402 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R094:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R104:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R114:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R124:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R134:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R144:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R154:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R164:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:352 MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundary R174:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R184:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R194:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R204:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R214:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R224:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R234:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R244:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R254:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummer Winter Winter WinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEvening Midday MiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR264:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R274:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R284:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R294:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R304:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R314:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R324:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R334:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R344:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R354:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R364:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R374:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R384:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R394:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R404:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R414:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R424:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R434:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R444:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40StagedEvacuation 2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles R454:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R464:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R474:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R484:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R494:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R504:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R514:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R524:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR012:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R022:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:15R032:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:152 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R052:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R062:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:15R072:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:15R082:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:15R092:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:202:15R102:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR452:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R462:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15R472:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:302:152:202:252:152:202:20R482:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:302:152:202:252:152:202:20R492:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:302:152:202:252:152:202:20R502:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:302:152:202:252:152:202:20R512:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:302:152:202:252:152:202:20R522:152:202:152:152:152:152:202:302:152:152:252:152:152:15 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R034:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:302 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R064:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R074:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R084:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R094:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R104:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR454:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R464:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R474:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R484:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R494:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R504:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R514:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R524:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionWindDirectionFrom:SectorCommunitiesVermontNewHampshireMassachusettsBrattleboroDummerstonGuilfordHalifaxMarlboroVernonChesterfieldHinsdaleRichmondSwanzeyWinchesterBernardstonColrainGillGreenfieldLeydenNorthfieldWarwickR012 MileRegionxxR025 MileRegionxxxxxxxR03FullEPZxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5MilesR04NNW,NR,AxxxxxR05NNEBxxxxxxNECSeeRegionR02R06ENE,ED,ExxxxxR07ESESSEF,G,HxxxxR08S,SSWJ,KxxxxxR09SWLxxxxxxR10WSWNWM,N,P,QxxxxEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles(Unstable)R11NNW,NR,AxxxxR12NNEBxxxxxR13NEEC,D,ExxxxESESSEF,G,HSeeRegionR07SJSeeRegionR08R14SSWWK,L,M,NxxxWNW,NWP,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles(Neutral)NNWNNER,A,BSeeRegionR11NE,ENEC,DSeeRegionR13R15EExxxESESSEF,G,HSeeRegionR07R16SJxxxSSWWK,L,M,NSeeRegionR14WNW,NWP,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles(Stable)NNWNNER,A,BSeeRegionR04NECSeeRegionR02ENESD,E,F,G,H,JSeeRegionR07SSWKSeeRegionR08SWLSeeRegionR09WSWNWM,N,P,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto10Miles(Unstable)R17NAxxxxxxxR18NNEBxxxxxxxxxR19NECxxxxxxxR20ENE,ED,ExxxxxxxR21ESEFxxxxxR22SEGxxxxxxR23SSEHxxxxxxR24SJxxxxxxR25SSWKxxxxxxxR26SWLxxxxxR27WSWMxxxxxxR28WNxxxxxxR29WNWPxxxxxxR30NWQxxxxxR31NNWRxxxxxx VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RegionWindDirectionFrom:SectorCommunitiesVermontNewHampshireMassachusettsBrattleboroDummerstonGuilfordHalifaxMarlboroVernonChesterfieldHinsdaleRichmondSwanzeyWinchesterBernardstonColrainGillGreenfieldLeydenNorthfieldWarwickEvacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto10Miles(Neutral)R32NAxxxxxxR33NNEBxxxxxxxxNECSeeRegionR19ENEDSeeRegionR20R34EExxxxxxESEFSeeRegionR21R35SEGxxxxxSSEHSeeRegionR23R36SJxxxxxR37SSWKxxxxSWLSeeRegionR26WSWMSeeRegionR27R38WNxxxxxWNWPSeeRegionR29NWQSeeRegionR30NNWRSeeRegionR31Evacuate2 MileRegionandDownwindto10Miles(Stable)R39WNNEN,P,Q,R,A,BxxxxxxR40NECxxxxxxxxxxR41ENEDxxxxxxxESE,F,G,H,JSeeRegionR23R42SSWKxxxxxxxR43SWLxxxxxxxxxR44WSWMxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesR45NNW,NR,AxxxxxR46NNEBxxxxxxR47NECxxxxxxxR48ENE,ED,ExxxxxR49ESESSEF,G,HxxxxR50S,SSWJ,KxxxxxR51SWLxxxxxxR52WSWNWM,N,P,Qxxxx5 MileRegionSeeRegionR47KeyCommunitiesEvacuateCommunitiesShelter in PlaceShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.VYNPPShadowRegion VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat3HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure7 8.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300330360 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario9)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300330360 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario12)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant7 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles.Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschools,an dmedicalfacilities;and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepres entsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilit yTheseactivitiesconsumetime.Basedondiscussionwiththeoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbusmobilizationtimewillaverageapproximately90minutesextendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizat ionactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointheirfamilies.Virtuallyal lstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentpublicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsoftheVYNPPEPZindicatesthatschoolchildrenwillbeevacuatedtohostschoolswheretheycanbepickedupbyaparentorguardian.AsdiscussedinSect ion2,thisstudyassumesafastbreakinggeneralemergency.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtohostschools.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbuse sundertheassumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.ItisassumedthatchildrenatdaycarecentersarepickedupbyparentsorguardiansandthatthetimetoperformthisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions* Estimatero utetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtothereceptioncenters VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailableatthetimetheevacuationisadvised.Inthelattergroup,thevehicl e(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.Table8 1presentsestimatesoftransit dependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransit dependentpersonswillevacuat ebyride sharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedaridewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransit dependentpersonsisbasedonanestimateofaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transi tvehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60childrenonaverage(roughlyequivalentto40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthenumberof"adultseats"takenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverag eloadfactoranticipatedis(27/40)x100=68percent.Thus,iftheactualdemandforserviceexceedstheestimatesofTable8 1by50percent,thedemandforservicecanstillbeaccommoda tedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.Table8 1indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor1,389people.Therefore,atotalof47busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorride share,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheVYNPPEPZ:Where,A=PercentofhouseholdswithcommutersC=Percentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter Thesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(1.40avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(2.0%)willevacuatebypublictransitorride share.Theterm16,879(numberofhouseholds)x0.02x1.40,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(29.8%),whoareathome,equal(1.84 1).ThenumberofHHwherethecomm uterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(16,879x0.298x0.66x0.59),as66%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,59%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(47.7%),whoareathome,equal(2.54-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto16,879x0.477x(0.66x0.59)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehi cles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.Theestimateoftransit dependentpopulationinTable8 1farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransit dependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbythestates(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR 6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajorityofthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 2presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZforthe2011 2012schoolyear.Thisinformationwasprovidedbythelocalstateemergencymanagementagencies,telephonecalls,andestimationsbasedonsimilarfacilities.ThecolumninTabl e8 2entitled"BusesRequired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateauto mobiles(asdiscussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR 7002),theestimateofbusesrequiredforschoolevacuationdonotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschools(60forMA)and50formiddleandhighsch ools(40forMA).* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacuateintheirprivatevehicles.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.ItissuggestedthatthestatesintheEPZintroduceprocedureswherebytheschoolsarecontactedpriortothedispatchofbusesfromthedepot,toascertainthecurrentestimateofstudentstobeevacuated.Inthisway,thenumberofbusesdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Theneedforbuseswouldbereducedbyanyhighschoolstudentswhohaveevacuatedusingprivateautomobiles(ifpermittedbyschoolauthorities).Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuateschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoride sharing.Table8 3presentsalistofthehostschoolsforea chschoolintheEPZ.Studentswillbetransportedtothesehostschoolswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.8.3 MedicalFacilityDemandTable8 4presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.514peoplehavebe enidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,thesefacilities.Thecapacityandcurrentcensusforeachfacilitywereobtainedthestateemergencymanagementagencies,telephonecallsorestimations.Thisdataincludesthenumberofambulatory,wheelchair boundandbedriddenpatientsateachfacility.ThetransportationrequirementsforthemedicalfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable8 4.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingthat2patientscanbeaccommodatedperambulancetrip;thenumberofwheelchairbusrunsassumes15wheelchairspertripandthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientspertrip.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetimeoftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhat"inefficient",orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,theETEforthetransit dependentpopulationwillbecalculatedforbothaonewavetransitevacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandthi sdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransit dependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinapositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthepick uppoints.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortransittripsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure8 1presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure8 1.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Itisassumedthatforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergencywithnoobservableindicationbeforethefact,schoolbusdriverswouldlikelyrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransit dependentfacilities.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerinadverseweather-100minuteswhenraining,110minuteswhensnowing.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)Basedondiscussionswithoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof15minutes(20minutesforrainand25minutesforsnow)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapick uproute(transit dependentbusroutes)estimationoftraveltimemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpick uppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:s=v 2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservicepassengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s, VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespick uptimeperbusrunimplies30st opsperrun,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;totalloadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain,50minutesinsnow.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbytheEPZstateemergencymanagementagenciesandaresummarizedinTable8 5.Alsoincludedinthetablearethenumberofbusesneededtoevacuateschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpopulation,homeboundspecialneeds(discussedbelowinSection8.5).Thesenumbersindicatetherearesufficientresourcesav ailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave.Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus15minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusrout esalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriatehostschool.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.EachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentotheDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforea ch5minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 6(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,100to105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsintheEPZisshowninTable8 7throughTable8 9forschoolevacuation,andinTable8 11throughTable8 13forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransit dependentpersons,whicharediscussedlater.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedi stancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundarytotheReceptionCenterwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof40mph,35mph,and30mphforgoodweather,rainandsnow,respectively.SpeedswerereducedinTable8 7throughTable8 9andinTable8 11throughTable8 13to55mph(50mphforrain-10%decrease-and45mphforsnow-20%decrease)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhichexceed35mph,astheschoolbusspeedlimit55mph.Table8 7(goodweather),Table8 8(rain)andTable8 9(snow)presentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)TheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateun tilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)Theelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachesthehostschool.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E(Forexampl e:90min.+15+11=2:00forAcademySchool,withgoodweatherroundeduptothenearest5minutes).TheevacuationtimetothehostschoolisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityE F(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuaonme.EvacuationofTransit DependentPopulation Thebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransit dependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure5 4(ResidentswithnoCommuters),90percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,approximately120minutesafterth eAdvisorytoEvacuate.Brattleborohasahightransit dependentpopulationandrequiresmorebusesthananyothercommunity(Table8 10).Thestartofserviceontheseroutesisseparatedby20minuteheadways,asshowninTable8 11throughTable8 13.Theuseofbusheadwaysensuresthatthosepeoplewhotakelongertomobilizewillbepickedup.Mobilizationtimeis10minuteslongerinraintoaccountfo rslowertravelspeedsandreducedroadwaycapacity.Thosebusesservicingthetransit dependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpick uproutes, VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1thenproceedoutoftheEPZ.The12busroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure8 2anddescribedinTable8 10weredesignedaspartofthisstudytoservicethemajorroutesthrougheachstateandtoservicethepopulationcenters.Itisassumedthatresidentswillwalktoandcongregateatthesepre designatedpick uplocations,andth attheycanarriveatthestopswithinthe90minutebusmobilizationtime(goodweather).Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof30minutes(goodweather)isestimatedfor30individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwitheachstop.Alongerpickuptimeof40minutesand50minutesareuse dforrainandsnow,respectively.Thetraveldistancealongtherespectivepick uprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoftware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEV,usingtheaforementi onedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table8 11throughTable8 13presentthetransit dependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweather,rainandsnow,respectively.Forexample,theETEforthebusroutenumberVT1iscomputedas120+27+30=3:00forgoodweather(roundeduptonearest5minut es).Here,27minutesisthetimetotravel20.0milesat44.0mph,theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelforthisroutestartingat120minutes.TheETEforasecondwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers,aspreviouslydiscussed.Activity:TraveltoReceptionCenters(E F)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytothereceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtothereceptioncenter.ThereceptioncentersaremappedinFigure10 1.Foraonewaveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwo waveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsideredseparately,sinceitcouldexc eedtheETEforthegeneralpopulation.Assumedbusspeedsof40mph,35mph,and30mphforgoodweather,rain,andsnow,respectively,willbeappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthetransit dependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(F G)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(G C)ThebusesassignedtoreturntotheEPZtoperforma"secondwave"evacuationoftransit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransit dependentpeoplewhomobilizedmorequickly.Thefirstwaveoftransit dependentpeopledepartthebus,andthebusthenreturnstotheEPZ,travelstoitsrouteandproceedstopickupmor etransit dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltimetothereceptioncenter.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thesecond waveETEforbusrouteVT1iscomputedasfollowsforgoodweather:* Busarrivesatreceptioncenterat3:20ingoodweather(3:00toexitEPZ+20minutetraveltimetoreceptioncenter).* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10minuterest:15minutes.* BusreturnstoEPZandcompletessecondroute:20minutes(equaltotraveltimetoreceptioncenter)+26minutes(20.0miles@46.8mph)+30minutes(20.0miles@40mph)=76minutes* Buscompletespick upsalongroute:30minutes.* BusexitsEPZattime3:20++0:15+0:76+0:30=5:25(roundeduptonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheETEforthecompletionofthesecondwaveforalltransit dependentbusroutesareprovidedinTable8 11throughTable8 13.TheaverageETEforatw o waveevacuationoftransit dependentpeopleexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90 thpercentile.Therelocationoftransit dependentevacueesfromthereceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.EvacuationofMedicalFacilitiesTheevacuationofthesefacilitiesissimilartoschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof30ambulatorypatientsand2wheelchairpatientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythepatients.Itisestimatedthatmini busescanholdupto15ambulatorypatientsand2wheelchairpatientsandambulancescanaccommoda te2patients.* Loadingtimesof1minute,5minutes,and15minutesperpatientareassumedforambulatorypatients,wheelchairboundpatients,andbedriddenpatients,respectively.Table8 4indicatesthat4busruns,85mini busrunsand9ambulancerunsareneededtoserviceallofthemedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.AccordingtoTable8 5,thecountiescancollectivelyprovide321buses,216mini buses,9wheelchairvansand9ambulances.Forthevastmajorityofbusesandmini busesprovided,thereisacapacityof2wheelchairpersonsperbus.Thus,therearesufficientresourcestoevacuateallpersonsfromthemedicalfacilitiesinasinglewave.Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverages90minutes.Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneed ed)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.Table8 14throughTable8 16summarizetheETEformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZforgoodweather,rain,andsnow.Valuesareshownambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpatients.Forvehiclesevacuatingbothambulatoryandwheelchairboundpatients,theETEwillfallinbetweentherangeshownforambulatoryandwheelchairbound.Averagespeedsoutput VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1bythemodelforScenario6(Scenario7forrainandScenario8forsnow)Region3,cappedat55mph(50mphforrainand45mphforsnow),areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundaryiscomputedbydividingthedistancetotheEPZboundarybytheaveragetrav elspeed.TheETEisthesumofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelchairbuses/vans,andambulancesatcapacityisassumedsuchthatthemaximumloadingtimesforbuses,wheelchairbusesandambul ancesare30,75and30minutes,respectively.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,thecalculationofETEforBrattleboroMemorialHospitalwith20ambulatoryresidentsduringgoodweatheris:ETE:90+20x1+17=127min.or2:10rounde dtothenearest5minutes.Itisassumedthatmedicalfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughthereceptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.8.5 SpecialNeedsPopulationThestateemergencymanagementagencieshaveacombinedregistrationfortransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.BasedondataprovidedbyNewHampshire,thereareanestimated54homeboundspecialneedspeoplewithintheNewHampshireportionoftheEPZwhorequiretransportationassistancetoevacuate.35ofwhomrequireabusorvan,17requireawheelchairaccessiblevehiclean d2requireanambulance.ExtrapolatingthesenumberstotherestoftheEPZweightedbypopulationresultsin106residentsneedingabusorvan,51needingawheelchairaccessiblevehicleand6needinganambulance,or163intotal.ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsTable8 17summarizestheETEforhomeboundspecialneedspeople.Thetableiscategorizedbytypeofvehiclerequiredandthenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesintoconsiderationthedeploymentofmultiplevehiclestoreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.Itisconservativelyassumedthatambulatoryandwheelch airboundspecialneedshouseholdsarespaced3milesapartandbedriddenhouseholdsarespaced5milesapart.Vanandbusspeedsapproximate20mphbetweenhouseholdsandambulancespeedsapproximate30mphingoodweather(10%slowerinrain,20%slowerinsnow).Mobilizationtimesof90minuteswereused(100minutesforrain,and110minutesforsnow).ThelastHHisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andth enetwork wideaveragespeed,cappedat55mph(50mphforrainand45mphforsnow),afterthelastpickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.ETEiscomputedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtimeatfirsthousehol d,traveltosubsequenthouseholds,loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,assumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperHHimpliesthat106ambulatoryhouseholdsneedtobeserviced.Whileonly6mini busesareneededfromacapacityperspective(assumedcapacityof20permini bus),if22busesaredeployedtoservicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequireabout5stops.ThefollowingoutlinestheETE VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1calculations:1. Assume22busesaredeployed,eachwithabout5stops,toserviceatotalof106HH.2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:90minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirstpickup:5minutesc. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:4@9m inutes=36minutesd. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:4@5minutes=20minutese. TraveltoEPZboundary:8minutes(5miles@36.5mph).ETE:90+5+36+20+8=2:40roundedtothenearest5minutes VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter EBusExitsRegion FBusArrivesatReceptionCenter/HostFacilityGBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationService Activity A B DriverMobilization B C TraveltoFacilityortoPick upRoute C D PassengersBoardtheBus D E BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary E F BusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenterOutsidetheEPZ F G PassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreakFigure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time(SubsequentWave)

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 2.VermontTransit DependentBusRoutes VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 3.NewHampshireTransit DependentBusRoutes VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 4.MassachusettsTransit DependentBusRoutes VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimated No.ofHouseholdsSurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHHwithCommutersSurveyPercentHH withNonReturning CommutersTotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharing PercentagePeopleRequiringPublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiringPublicTransit01201241,0151.401.842.5416,8792.0%29.8%47.7%66%59%2,77750%1,3893.4%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesCommunitySchoolNameEnrollmentBusesRequiredBernardstonBernardstonElementarySchool1723BernardstonFullCircleSchoolInc.361BrattleboroAcademySchool3536BrattleboroAustineSchool561BrattleboroBrattleboroAreaMiddleSchool2746BrattleboroBrattleboroUnionHighSchool91019BrattleboroCommunityCollegeofVermont6,2990BrattleboroCommunityHighSchoolofVermont3548BrattleboroCommunityHouseSchool1733BrattleboroGreenStreetSchool2404BrattleboroHilltopMontessoriSchool1152BrattleboroMeadowsSchool752BrattleboroOakGroveSchool1453BrattleboroSaintMichaelSchool2495BrattleboroWorldLearningSchool2254ChesterfieldChesterfieldCentralSchool4016ColrainColrainCentral1102DummerstonDummerstonSchool1853GillGillElementarySchool1253GillGivingTreeSchoolInc.181GillNorthfieldMountHermonSchool65017GuilfordGuilfordCentralSchool1443HalifaxHalifaxWestSchool651HinsdaleHinsdaleElementarySchool3676HinsdaleHinsdaleMiddle/HighSchool2996LeydenPearlERhodesElementarySchool461MarlboroMarlboroCollege3002NorthfieldNorthfieldElementarySchool1733NorthfieldPioneerValleyRegionalSchool55014RichmondSaintBenedictCenter401VernonVernonElementarySchool1523WarwickWarwickCommunitySchool612WinchesterWinchesterSchool2955TOTAL: 13,657146 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.HostSchoolsSchoolHostSchoolAcademySchoolBellowsFallsUnionHighSchoolAustineSchoolBrattleboroAreaMiddleSchoolBrattleboroUnionHighSchoolCommunityCollegeofVermontCommunityHighSchoolofVermontCommunityHouseSchoolDummerstonSchoolGreenStreetSchoolGuilfordCentralSchoolHalifaxWestSchoolHilltopMontessoriSchoolMarlboroCollegeMeadowsSchoolOakGroveSchoolSaintMichaelSchoolVernonElementarySchoolWorldLearningSchoolBernardstonElementarySchoolGreenfieldCommunityCollegeColrainCentralFullCircleSchoolInc.NorthfieldElementarySchoolPearlERhodesElementarySchoolPioneerValleyRegionalSchoolWarwickCommunitySchoolChesterfieldCentralSchoolHinsdaleElementarySchoolHinsdaleMiddle/HighSchoolSaintBenedictCenterWinchesterSchoolGillElementarySchoolTurnersFallsHighSchoolGivingTreeSchoolInc.UniversityofMassachusettsAmherstNorthfieldMountHermonSchool VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemandCommunityFacilityNameCapacityCurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedriddenBusRunsMini BusRunsAmbulance VERMONTMEDICALFACILITIESBrattleboroBrattleboroMemorialHospital65502020100105BrattleboroBrattleboroRetreat11011010712401BrattleboroHilltopHouse27201370040BrattleboroHoltonHome352918101051BrattleboroPineHeights8080482840142BrattleboroThompsonHouseNursingHome1005949100050VernonVernonAdventChristianHomes11699653400170VermontSubtotal: 533447320110174559NEWHAMPSHIREMEDICALFACILITIESWinchesterApplewoodCare&RehabCenter706776000300NewHampshireSubtotal: 706776000300TOTAL: 603514327170174859 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceBusesMini busWheelchairVansAmbulances ResourcesAvailableCRT73DVTA107GMCN14AT5MVRTD2634StagecoachTransportationServices20ESI6AddisonCountyTransitResources410GMTA650CCTA/SSTA5346RCT112C.I.D.E.R7GerdesTransportation14LaidlawBrattleboro509LaidlawWestSwanzey85LaidlawTransit(MA)1TurnersFalls213F.M.Kuzmeskus,Inc.363FirstStudent3RescueInc.4Lefevre4GraceCottage2DeefieldValley2KeeneFine3DiluzioInc.4TOTAL: 321216919ResourcesNeededSchools(Table8 2): 146MedicalFacilities(Table8 4): 4859TransitDependentPopulation(Table8 10): 47HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5):2293TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 197107912 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1AcademySchool266,933,74,75,76,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,852AustineSchool774,43,38,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,853BernardstonElementarySchool662,697,698,699,700,701,702,703,704 5BrattleboroUnionHighSchool,BrattleboroAreaMiddleSchool870,774,43,38,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,656ChesterfieldCentralSchool252,253,284,285,762,286 7ColrainCentral324,323,519,841,840,839,748,842 8CommunityCollegeofVermont658,883,886,417,742,741,418,416,78,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,659CommunityHighSchoolofVermont658,883,886,417,742,741,418,416,78,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6510CommunityHouseSchool429,656,657,658,883,886,417,742,741,418,416,78,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6511DummerstonSchool634,633,635,82,83 12FullCircleSchoolInc207,930,23,25,22,21,20,19 13GillElementarySchool594,593,592,591,590 14GivingTreeSchoolInc594,593,592 15GreenStreetSchool295,75,76,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6516GuilfordCentralSchool743,665,664,663,534,42,43,38,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6517HalifaxWestSchool753,341,342,343,344,345,346,347 18HilltopMontessoriSchool933,74,75,76,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6519HinsdaleSchools367,386,384,385,228,229,245,246,247,248,249,250,614,251,252,253,284,285,762,28620MarlboroCollege756,524,758,277,906,278,279,917,280 21MeadowsSchool655,429,294,295,75,76,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6522NorthfieldElementarySchool508,213,752,204,909,908,205,206,207,930,23,25,26,22,21,20,19 23NorthfieldMountHermonSchool205,908,909,204,208,209,210,21124OakGroveSchool870,774,43,38,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6525PearlERhodesElementarySchool745,824,825,826,827,828,829,830,74426PioneerValleyRegionalSchool205,206,207,930,23,25,26,22,21,20,1927SaintBenedictCenter555,556,557,558,559 28SaintMichaelSchool656,657,658,883,886,417,742,741,418,416,78,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6529VernonElementarySchool688,391,419,420,421,422,423,424,935,425,426,427,428,293,897,899,294,429,656,657,658,883,886,417,742,741,418,416,78,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary30WarwickCommunitySchool511,219,568 31WinchesterSchool235,236,483,482,481,480,479,478,477,476,475,474,460,461 32WorldLearningSchool887,886,417,742,741,418,416,78,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6540VT1393,392,391,419,420,421,422,423,424,935,425,426,427,428,293,897,899,294,429,656,657,658,883,886,417,742,741,418,631,902,630,629,628,627,904,632,626,634,633,635,82,8341VT2743,665,664,663,534,42,43,774,905,291,292,293,897,899,294,429,656,655,654,653,652,651,650,649,648,447,448,449,43042VT3664,663,534,42,43,774,905,291,292,293,897,899,294,295,75,74,933,266,532,267,268,269,270,271,296,27243VT4335,336,337,338,339,340,341,342,343,344,345,346,347 44NH1582,583,584,576,228,229,245,246,247,248,249,250,614,251,252,253,284,285,762,28645NH2888,415,414,889,890,413,281,891,282,283,253,254,255,256 46NH3367,386,384,385,228,229,387,230,231,613,232,233,234,235,236,483,482,481,480,479,478,477,476,475,474,460,461,46247NH4563,564,565,566,567,510,235,236,237,238,813,239,240,241,242,243,24448MA1747,836,835,834,745,824,825,826,827,828,829,830,744 49MA2679,680,681,682,683,684,685,661,660,662,697,698,699,700,701,702,703,70450MA3403,404,405,406,407,408,409,206,207,930,23,25,26,22,21,20,19 51MA4562,561,560,508,213,752,204,909,908,205,598,597,596,595,594,593,592,591,59060BrattleboroMemorialHospital291,905,774,43,38,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6561BrattleboroRetreat/HilltopHouse656,657,658,883,886,417,742,741,418,416,78,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6562HoltonHome295,75,76,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6563PineHeights/ThompsonHouse291,905,774,43,38,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,80,53,54,55,56,57, 58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6564VernonAdventChristianHomes393,392,391,419,420,421,422,423,424,935,425,426,427,428,293,897,899,294,429,656,657,658,883,886,417,742,741,418,416,78,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,6565ApplewoodCare&RehabCenter509,235,236,483,482,481,480,479,478,477,476,475,474,460,461,462 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoH.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoH.S.(hr:min)VERMONTSCHOOLSAcademySchool901510.455.0112:0013.3202:20AustineSchool901511.655.0132:0013.3202:20BrattleboroAreaMiddleSchool901511.047.0142:0013.3202:20BrattleboroUnionHighSchool901511.047.0142:0013.3202:20CommunityCollegeofVermont90157.553.281:5513.3202:15CommunityHighSchoolofVermont90158.153.291:5513.3202:15CommunityHouseSchool90158.951.9101:5513.3202:15DummerstonSchool90152.653.731:5013.6202:10GreenStreetSchool901510.155.0112:0013.3202:20GuilfordCentralSchool901515.955.0172:0513.3202:25HalifaxWestSchool90154.039.161:5556.0843:20HilltopMontessoriSchool901511.755.0132:0013.3202:20MarlboroCollege90157.316.8262:1551.9783:35MeadowsSchool901510.655.0122:0013.3202:20OakGroveSchool901511.347.0142:0013.3202:20SaintMichaelSchool90158.952.4101:5513.3202:15VernonElementarySchool901515.248.8192:0513.3202:25WorldLearningSchool90158.152.991:5513.3202:15NEWHAMPSHIRESCHOOLSChesterfieldCentralSchool90156.450.681:554.972:05HinsdaleElementarySchool901514.647.2192:053.962:15HinsdaleMiddle/HighSchool901514.847.2192:053.962:15SaintBenedictCenter90157.548.391:5511.3172:15WinchesterSchool90156.630.7132:008.2122:15 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoH.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoH.S.(hr:min)MASSACHUSETTSSCHOOLSBernardstonElementarySchool90152.344.731:505.992:00ColrainCentral90153.141.441:505.892:00FullCircleSchoolInc90154.255.051:506.192:00GillElementarySchool90152.040.031:503.962:00GivingTreeSchoolInc90151.440.021:5018.5282:20NorthfieldElementarySchool90158.551.6101:554.262:05NorthfieldMountHermonSchool90157.451.191:5517.1262:25PearlERhodesElementarySchool90154.428.991:554.262:05PioneerValleyRegionalSchool90156.455.071:554.262:05WarwickCommunitySchool90150.349.601:4522.6342:20MaximumforEPZ:2:15Maximum:3:35AverageforEPZ:2:00Average:2:20 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoH.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoH.S.(hr:min)VERMONTSCHOOLSAcademySchool1002010.450.0122:1513.3232:40AustineSchool1002011.650.0142:1513.3232:40BrattleboroAreaMiddleSchool1002011.042.4162:2013.3232:45BrattleboroUnionHighSchool1002011.042.4162:2013.3232:45CommunityCollegeofVermont100207.550.092:1013.3232:35CommunityHighSchoolofVermont100208.150.0102:1013.3232:35CommunityHouseSchool100208.948.9112:1513.3232:40DummerstonSchool100202.648.832:0513.6232:30GreenStreetSchool1002010.150.0122:1513.3232:40GuilfordCentralSchool1002015.950.0192:2013.3232:45HalifaxWestSchool100204.032.372:1056.0963:50HilltopMontessoriSchool1002011.750.0142:1513.3232:40MarlboroCollege100207.313.7322:3551.9894:05MeadowsSchool1002010.650.0132:1513.3232:40OakGroveSchool1002011.342.4162:2013.3232:45SaintMichaelSchool100208.949.5112:1513.3232:40VernonElementarySchool1002015.244.8202:2013.3232:45WorldLearningSchool100208.150.0102:1013.3232:35NEWHAMPSHIRESCHOOLSChesterfieldCentralSchool100206.444.692:104.982:20HinsdaleElementarySchool1002014.641.9212:253.972:35HinsdaleMiddle/HighSchool1002014.841.9212:253.972:35SaintBenedictCenter100207.543.4102:1011.3192:30WinchesterSchool100206.627.1152:158.2142:30 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoH.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoH.S.(hr:min)MASSACHUSETTSSCHOOLSBernardstonElementarySchool100202.341.032:055.9102:15ColrainCentral100203.137.752:055.8102:15FullCircleSchoolInc100204.250.052:056.1102:15GillElementarySchool100202.036.032:053.972:15GivingTreeSchoolInc100201.436.022:0518.5322:40NorthfieldElementarySchool100208.546.8112:154.272:25NorthfieldMountHermonSchool100207.447.292:1017.1292:40PearlERhodesElementarySchool100204.426.2102:104.272:20PioneerValleyRegionalSchool100206.450.082:104.272:20WarwickCommunitySchool100200.345.002:0022.6392:40MaximumforEPZ:2:35Maximum:4:05AverageforEPZ:2:15Average:2:40 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnowSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoH.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoH.S.(hr:min)VERMONTSCHOOLSAcademySchool1102510.445.0142:3013.3273:00AustineSchool1102511.645.0152:3013.3273:00BrattleboroAreaMiddleSchool1102511.039.1172:3513.3273:05BrattleboroUnionHighSchool1102511.039.1172:3513.3273:05CommunityCollegeofVermont110257.545.0102:2513.3272:55CommunityHighSchoolofVermont110258.145.0112:3013.3273:00CommunityHouseSchool110258.943.8122:3013.3273:00DummerstonSchool110252.642.642:2013.6272:50GreenStreetSchool1102510.145.0132:3013.3273:00GuilfordCentralSchool1102515.944.4212:4013.3273:10HalifaxWestSchool110254.030.182:2556.01124:20HilltopMontessoriSchool1102511.745.0162:3513.3273:05MarlboroCollege110257.311.8372:5551.91044:40MeadowsSchool1102510.645.0142:3013.3273:00OakGroveSchool1102511.339.1172:3513.3273:05SaintMichaelSchool110258.944.3122:3013.3273:00VernonElementarySchool1102515.240.3232:4013.3273:10WorldLearningSchool110258.145.0112:3013.3273:00NEWHAMPSHIRESCHOOLSChesterfieldCentralSchool110256.440.0102:254.9102:35HinsdaleElementarySchool1102514.637.1242:403.982:50HinsdaleMiddle/HighSchool1102514.837.1242:403.982:50SaintBenedictCenter110257.538.6122:3011.3232:55WinchesterSchool110256.624.3162:358.2162:55 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoH.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S.(min)ETEtoH.S.(hr:min)MASSACHUSETTSSCHOOLSBernardstonElementarySchool110252.335.842:205.9122:35ColrainCentral110253.133.662:255.8122:40FullCircleSchoolInc110254.245.062:256.1122:40GillElementarySchool110252.031.942:203.982:30GivingTreeSchoolInc110251.432.032:2018.5373:00NorthfieldElementarySchool110258.541.7122:304.282:40NorthfieldMountHermonSchool110257.441.1112:3017.1343:05PearlERhodesElementarySchool110254.423.1112:304.282:40PioneerValleyRegionalSchool110256.445.092:254.282:35WarwickCommunitySchool110250.339.802:1522.6453:00MaximumforEPZ:2:55Maximum:4:40AverageforEPZ:2:30Average:3:00 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutesRouteNo.ofBusesRouteDescriptionLength(mi.)VT17Vernon,Brattleboro,DumerstontoBellowsFallsUnionHighSchool20VT27Guilford,Brattleboro,DumersontoBellowsFallsUnionHighSchool18.6VT37Brattleboro,MarlborotoBellowsFallsUnionHighSchool16.8VT42HalifaxtoBellowsFallsUnionHighSchool5.8NH14Hinsdale,ChesterfieldtoKeeneHighSchool18.5NH24ChesterfieldtoKeeneHighSchool7.5NH34Hinsdale,Winchester,SwanzeytoKeeneHighSchool13.2NH44Winchester,RichmondtoKeeneHighSchool15.5MA12Leyden,GreenfieldtoGreenfieldCommunityCollege8.6MA22Bernardston,GreenfieldtoGreenfieldCommunityCollege7.1MA32Northfield,Bernardston,GilltoGreenfieldCommunityCollege10.9MA42Northfield,GilltoGreenfieldCommunityCollege9.2Total:47 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusGroupNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)VT1112020.044.027303:0013.32051076305:25215020.045.027303:3013.32051075305:50VT2112018.641.527303:0026.84051093306:00215018.641.227303:3026.84051093306:30VT3112016.831.232303:0551.978510126307:15215016.839.226303:3051.978510126307:40VT411205.848.97302:4056.084510100306:3021505.849.17303:1056.084510100307:00NH1112018.545.524302:553.9651058304:45215018.545.424303:253.9651058305:15NH211207.548.89302:4014.42251042304:3021507.549.49303:1014.42251042305:00NH3112013.234.923302:558.21251055304:50215013.234.823303:258.21251055305:20NH4112015.547.719302:5011.31751060304:55215015.548.119303:2011.31751060305:25MA111208.629.018302:504.7751037304:2021508.629.617303:204.7751038304:55MA211207.144.110302:405.9951029304:0511507.144.010303:105.9951029304:35MA3212010.951.013302:454.7751036304:15115010.951.113303:154.7751036304:45MA421209.239.514302:458.61351040304:2511509.240.814303:158.61351041304:55MaximumETE:3:30MaximumETE:7:40AverageETE:3:05AverageETE:5:25 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusGroupNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)VT1113020.040.430403:2013.32351080406:00216020.041.329403:5013.32351080406:30VT2113018.637.330403:2026.846510102406:45216018.637.330403:5026.846510102407:15VT3113016.826.238403:3051.989510140408:15216016.835.928403:5051.989510140408:35VT411305.843.88403:0056.096510113407:2521605.844.28403:3056.096510113407:55NH1113018.541.627403:203.9751062405:25216018.540.527403:503.9751061405:55NH211307.544.610403:0014.42551047405:1021607.545.210403:3014.42551046405:40NH3113013.231.725403:158.21451060405:25216013.231.125403:458.21451058405:55NH4113015.543.321403:1511.31951065405:35216015.542.822403:4511.31951063406:05MA111308.626.220403:104.7851040404:5521608.625.620403:404.7851043405:30MA211307.140.311403:055.91051031404:4511607.140.011403:355.91051031405:15MA3213010.946.414403:054.7851038404:50116010.945.314403:354.7851039405:20MA421309.236.615403:058.61551044405:0011609.236.215403:358.61551043405:30MaximumETE:3:50MaximumETE:8:35AverageETE:3:30AverageETE:6:05 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnowRouteNumberBusGroupNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)VT1114020.036.033503:4513.32751088506:45217020.036.133504:1513.32751088507:15VT2114018.633.134503:4526.854510113507:40217018.633.633504:1526.854510113508:10VT3114016.823.243503:5551.9104510160509:25217016.831.132504:1551.9104510160509:45VT411405.838.79503:2056.0112510130508:3021705.838.89503:5056.0112510130509:00NH1114018.536.630503:403.9851066506:00217018.536.930504:103.9851065506:30NH211407.538.812503:2514.42951051505:5021707.539.311503:5514.42951051506:20NH3114013.228.128503:408.21651064506:10217013.228.028504:108.21651064506:40NH4114015.537.925503:3511.32351070506:15217015.538.124504:0511.32351070506:45MA111408.623.422503:354.7951045505:3521708.623.422504:054.7951044506:05MA211407.135.512503:255.91251035505:2011707.135.312503:555.91251034505:50MA3214010.941.516503:304.7951042505:30117010.940.816504:004.7951041506:00MA421409.232.417503:308.61751048505:4511709.232.517504:008.61751048506:15MaximumETE:4:15MaximumETE:9:45AverageETE:3:50AverageETE:6:50 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table814.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)BrattleboroMemorialHospitalAmbulatory901202011.0172:10Wheelchairbound905207511.0143:00Bedridden9015103011.0172:20Brattleboro RetreatAmbulatory9011073010.7122:15Wheelchairbound9051510.7161:55Bedridden901523010.7122:15HilltopHouseAmbulatory90113138.5101:55Wheelchairbound9057358.592:15HoltonHomeAmbulatory90118189.7112:00Wheelchairbound90510509.7112:35Bedridden90151159.7112:00PineHeightsAmbulatory901483011.0172:20Wheelchairbound905287511.0143:00Bedridden901543011.0172:20ThompsonHouseNursingHomeAmbulatory901493011.2172:20Wheelchairbound905105011.2152:35VernonAdventChristianHomesAmbulatory901653016.4202:20Wheelchairbound905347516.4203:05Bedridden90150016.4241:55ApplewoodCare&RehabCenterAmbulatory901776.7131:50Wheelchairbound90560756.7143:00MaximumETE:3:05AverageETE:2:25 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table815.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)BrattleboroMemorialHospitalAmbulatory1001202011.0182:20Wheelchairbound1005207511.0173:15Bedridden10015103011.0182:30BrattleboroRetreatAmbulatory10011073010.7132:25Wheelchairbound10051510.7132:00Bedridden1001523010.7132:25HilltopHouseAmbulatory100113138.5102:05Wheelchairbound10057358.5102:25HoltonHomeAmbulatory100118189.7122:10Wheelchairbound100510509.7122:45Bedridden100151159.7122:10PineHeightsAmbulatory1001483011.0182:30Wheelchairbound1005287511.0173:15Bedridden1001543011.0182:30ThompsonHouseNursingHomeAmbulatory1001493011.2182:30Wheelchairbound1005105011.2182:50VernonAdventChristianHomesAmbulatory1001653016.4222:35Wheelchairbound1005347516.4223:20Bedridden100150016.4232:05ApplewoodCare&RehabCenterAmbulatory1001776.7142:05Wheelchairbound100560756.7153:10MaximumETE:3:20AverageETE:2:35 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table816.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnowMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)BrattleboroMemorialHospitalAmbulatory1101202011.0202:30Wheelchairbound1105207511.0193:25Bedridden11015103011.0202:40BrattleboroRetreatAmbulatory11011073010.7142:35Wheelchairbound11051510.7152:10Bedridden1101523010.7142:35HilltopHouseAmbulatory110113138.5122:15Wheelchairbound11057358.5122:40HoltonHomeAmbulatory110118189.7132:25Wheelchairbound110510509.7132:55Bedridden110151159.7132:20PineHeightsAmbulatory1101483011.0202:40Wheelchairbound1105287511.0193:25Bedridden1101543011.0202:40ThompsonHouseNursingHomeAmbulatory1101493011.2202:40Wheelchairbound1105105011.2203:00VernonAdventChristianHomesAmbulatory1101653016.4252:45Wheelchairbound1105347516.4253:30Bedridden110150016.4252:15ApplewoodCare&RehabCenterAmbulatory1101776.7162:15Wheelchairbound110560756.7163:25MaximumETE:3:30AverageETE:2:45 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant8 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table817.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimatesVehicleTypePeopleRequiringVehicleVehiclesdeployedStopsWeatherConditionsMobiliza tionTime(min)LoadingTimeat1 stStop(min)TraveltoSubsequentStops(min)TotalLoadingTimeatSubsequentStops(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)Mini Buses106225Good905362082:40Rain1004092:55Snow11044103:10WheelchairVans5196Good905452582:55Rain1005093:10Snow11055103:25Ambulances632Good9015101582:20Rain1001192:30Snow11013102:45MaximumETE:3:25AverageETE:2:55 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides.* TrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.ThesedevicesshouldcomplywiththeguidanceoftheManualofUniformTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.AllstateandmoststatetransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,(whichisavailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov)whichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. FacilitateevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Weemploytheterms"facilitate"and"discourage"ratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forex ample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbythestateandoffsiteagenciesintheexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR 7002.2. TheexistingTCPsandACPsandhowtheywereappliedinthisstudyarediscussedinAppendixG.3. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment(seeFigures7 3through7 6).AsdiscussedinSection7.3,congestionwithintheEPZisclearbyabout3hoursaftertheATE.TheonlylocationsthatexperienceLOSFforanextendedperiodaretheaccessrampstoI 91northboundinBrattleboro,Route9westboundinMarlboroand VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Route30northboundinDummerston.InBrattleboro,TCPsalreadyexistatcongestedlocations.AlongRoutes9and30,congestionisduetooverallroadwaycharacteristics,notintersectionsorbottlenecks.TCPswouldnotimprovetrafficflowontheseroadways,andnoadditionalpointsarerecommendedforthisEPZ.TheuseofIntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)technologiescanreducemanpowerandequipmentneeds,whilestillfacilitatingtheevacuationprocess.DynamicMessageSigns(DMS)canbeplacedwithintheEPZtoprovideinformationtotravelersregardingtrafficconditions,routeselection,andreceptioncenterinformation.DMScanalsobeplacedoutsideoftheEPZtowarnmotoriststoavoidusingroutesthatmayconflictwiththeflo wofevacueesawayfromthepowerplant.HighwayAdvisoryRadio(HAR)canbeusedtobroadcastinformationtoevacueesenroutethroughtheirvehiclestereosystems.AutomatedTravelerInformationSystems(ATIS)canalsobeusedtoprovideevacueeswithinformation.Internetwebsitescanprovidetrafficandevacuationrouteinformationbeforetheevacueebeginstheirtrip,whileonboardnavigationsystems(GPSunits),cellphones,andpagerscanbeusedtoprovideinformationenroute.TheseareonlyseveralexamplesofhowITStechnologiescanbenefittheevacuationprocess.ConsiderationshouldbegiventhatITStechnologiesbeusedtofacilitatetheevacuati onprocess,andanyadditionalsignageplacedshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.Chapters2Nand5G,andPart6ofthe2009MUTCDareparticularlyrelevantandshouldbereviewedduringemergencyresponsetraining.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"externalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter45minuteshaveelapsedfromtheATE.AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningACPsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussACPandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromacommunitybeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsuchawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersorhostfacilitiesisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1presentma psshowingthegeneralpopulationreceptioncentersandhostschoolsforevacuees.ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 2.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriatehostschoolandsubsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transit de pendentevacueesaretransportedtothenearestreceptioncenterforeachstate.Thisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandHostSchools VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.MajorEvacuationRoutes VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant11 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.111 SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONSThereisaneedforsurveillanceoftrafficoperationsduringtheevacuation.Thereisalsoaneedtoclearanyblockageofroadwaysarisingfromaccidentsorvehicledisablement.Surveillancecantakeseveralforms.1. Trafficcontrolpersonnel,locatedatTrafficControlandAccessControlpoints,providefixed pointsurveillance.2. Groundpatrolsmaybeundertakenalongwell definedpathstoensurecoverageofthosehighwaysthatserveasmajorevacuationroutes.3. Aerialsurveillanceofevacuationoperationsmayalsobeconductedusinghelicopterorfixed wingaircraft,ifavailable.4. Cellularphonecalls(ifcellularcoverageexists)frommotoristsmayalsoprovidedirectfieldreportsofroadblockages.TheseconcurrentsurveillanceproceduresaredesignedtoprovidecoverageoftheentireEPZaswellastheareaarounditsperiphery.Itistheresponsibilityofthestatestosupportanemergencyresponsesystemthatcanreceivemessagesfromthefieldandbeinapositiontorespondtoanyreportedproblemsinatimelymanner.Thiscoverageshouldquic klyidentify,andexpeditetheresponsetoanyblockagecausedbyadisabledvehicle.TowVehiclesInalow speedtrafficenvironment,anyvehicledisablementislikelytoariseduetoalow speedcollision,mechanicalfailureortheexhaustionofitsfuelsupply.Inanycase,thedisabledvehiclecanbepushedontotheshoulder,therebyrestoringtrafficflow.Pastexperienceinotheremergenciesindicatesthatevacueeswhoareleavinganareaoftenperformactivitiessuchaspushingadisabledvehicletothesideoftheroadwithoutprom pting.Whiletheneedfortowvehiclesisexpectedtobelowunderthecircumstancesdescribedabove,itisstillprudenttobepreparedforsuchaneed.Considerationshouldbegiventhattowtruckswithasupplyofgasolinebedeployedatstrategiclo cationswithin,orjustoutside,theEPZ.Theselocationsshouldbeselectedsothat: Theypermitaccesstokey,heavilyloaded,evacuationroutes. Respondingtowtruckswouldmostlikelytravelcounter flowrelativetoevacuatingtraffic.Considerationshouldalsobegiventhatthestateandlocalemergencymanagementagenciesencouragegasstationstoremainopenduringtheevacuation.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant12 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.112 CONFIRMATIONTIMEItisnecessarytoconfirmthattheevacuationprocessiseffectiveinthesensethatthepubliciscomplyingwiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheEPZstateradiologicalemergencyplansdonotdiscussaprocedureforconfirmingevacuation.Shouldproceduresnotalreadyexist,thefollowingalternativeorcomplementaryapproachissuggested.Thesuggestedprocedureemploysastratifiedrandomsampleandatelephonesurvey.Thesizeofthesampl eisdependentontheexpectednumberofhouseholdsthatdonotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Itisreasonabletoassumeforthepurposeofestimatingsamplesizethatatleast80perc entofthepopulationwithintheEPZwillcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Onthisbasis,ananalysiscouldbeundertaken(seeTable12 1)toyieldanestimatedsamplesizeofapproximately300.Theconfirmationprocessshouldstartatabout21/2hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,whichiswhenapproximately90percentofresidentevacueeshavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivities(seeTable5 9).Atthistime,virtuallyallevac ueeswillhavedepartedontheirrespectivetripsandthelocaltelephonesystemwillbelargelyfreeoftraffic.AsindicatedinTable12 1,approximately71/2personho ursareneededtocompletethetelephonesurvey.Ifsixpeopleareassignedtothistask,eachdialingadifferentsetoftelephoneexchanges(e.g.,eachpersoncanbeassignedadifferentsetofcommunities),thentheconfirmationprocesswillextendoveratimeframeofabout75minutes.Thus,theconfirmationshouldbecompletedbeforetheevacuatedareaiscleared.Ofcourse,fewerpeoplewouldbeneededforthissurveyiftheEvacuationRegionwereonlyaportionoftheEPZ.Useofmodernautomatedcomputercontrolleddialingequipmentorothertechnologies(e.g.,reverse911orequivalentifavailable)cansignificantlyredu cethemanpowerrequirementsandthetimerequiredtoundertakethistypeofconfirmationsurvey.Ifthismethodisindeedusedbytheoffsiteagencies,considerationshouldbegiventomaintainalistoftelephonenumberswithintheEPZintheEOCatalltimes.Suchalistcouldbepurchasedfromvendorsandcouldbeperiodicallyupdated.Asindicatedabove,theconfirmationprocesssh ouldnotbeginuntil21/2hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,toensurethathouseholdshavehadenoughtimetomobilize.This21/2 hourtimeframewillenabletelephoneoperatorstoarriveattheirworkplace,obtainacalllistan dpreparetomakethenecessaryphonecalls.Shouldthenumberoftelephoneresponses(i.e.,peoplestillathome)exceed20percent,thenthetelephonesurveyshouldberepeatedafteranhour'sintervaluntiltheconfirmationprocessiscompleted.Othertechniquescouldalsobeconsidered.Aftertrafficvolumesdecline,thepersonne lmanningTCPscanberedeployedtotravelthroughresidentialareastoobserveandtoconfirmevacuationactivities.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlant12 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuationProblemDefinitionEstimatenumberofphonecalls,n,neededtoascertaintheproportion,Fofhouseholdsthathavenotevacuated.

Reference:

Burstein,H.,AttributeSampling,McGrawHill,1971Given: No.ofhouseholdsplusotherfacilities,N,withintheEPZ(est.)=16,900 Est.proportion,F,ofhouseholdsthatwillnotevacuate=0.20 Allowableerrormargin,e:0.05 Confidencelevel,:0.95(impliesA=1.96)ApplyingTable10ofcitedreference,Finitepopulationcorrection:

Thus,some300telephonecallswillconfirmthatapproximately20percentofthepopulationhasnotevacuated.Ifonly10percentofthepopulationdoesnotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate,thentherequiredsamplesize,n F=213.

Est.PersonHourstocomplete300telephonecallsAssume: Timetodialusingtouchtone(randomselectionoflistednumbers):30seconds Timefor6rings(noanswer):36seconds Timefor4ringsplusshortconversation:60sec. Intervalbetweencalls:20sec.PersonHours:

APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.

APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost."OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a=

ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepres entsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantB 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?

Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 80078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelength ofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,.

Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantC 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.

APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.EmployeedatawereestimatedusingtheU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsinteractiv ewebsite 1.Transientdatawereobtainedfromlocal/stateemergencymanagementagenciesandfromphonecallstotransientattractions.Informationconcerningschools,medicalandothertypesofspecialfacilitieswithintheEPZwasobtainedfromstateandmunicipalsources,augmentedbytelephonecontactswiththeidentifiedfacilities.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateemergencymanagers,departmentoftransportation,autilityemergencymanager,statelawenforcement).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specificrequestsforinformationwerepresentedtoallattendees.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.Step51 http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredtoperformpre evacuationmobilizationactivities.Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto18communities.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofcommunities)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.Step10 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperien cetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakema nyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputst reammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thenth eprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroutespecificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentandspecialf acilitypopulationgroups.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset.Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXESpecialFacilityData VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. SPECIALFACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asof2011,forspecialfacilities,transientattractionsandmajoremployersthatarelocatedwithintheVYNPPEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschoolsandhospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforrecreationalareasandlodgingfacilities.Employmentdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Eac htableisgroupedbystate.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,medicalfacility,recreationalareaandlodgingfacilityarealsoprovided.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZCommunityDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressPhoneEnroll mentVERMONT Brattleboro6.6NWAcademySchool860WesternAvenue(802)2543743353 Brattleboro5.5NWAustineSchool AustineDrive(802)2589500 56 Brattleboro4.6NNWBrattleboroAreaMiddleSchool109SunnyAcresDrive(802)4513500274 Brattleboro4.7NNWBrattleboroUnionHighSchool131FairgroundRoad(802)4513400910 Brattleboro7.1NNWCommunityCollegeofVermont70LandmarkHillDrive#101(802)25463706,299Brattleboro6.6NNWCommunityHighSchoolofVermont13SpringTreeRoad(802)2512044354Brattleboro5.7NNWCommunityHouseSchool MainStreet(802)2517260173 Brattleboro5.7NNWGreenStreetSchool164GreenStreet(802)2543737240 Brattleboro5.5NWHilltopMontessoriSchool120SummitCircle(802)2570500115 Brattleboro6.1NNWMeadowsSchool 75LindenStreet(802)2577785 75 Brattleboro4.8NNWOakGroveSchool 15MorelandAvenue(802)2543740145 Brattleboro5.8NNWSaintMichaelSchool 48WalnutStreet(802)2546320249 Brattleboro8.2NNWWorldLearningSchool 1KiplingRoad(802)2577751225 Dummerston10.8NDummerstonSchool 52SchoolhouseRoad(802)2542733185 Guilford5.8WNW GuilfordCentralSchool374SchoolRoad(802)2542271144 Halifax13.0WHalifaxWestSchool246BranchRoad(802)3682888 65 Marlboro12.0WNW MarlboroCollege2582SouthRoad(802)2574333300 Vernon0.3WSWVernonElementarySchool381GovernorHuntRoad(802)2545373152VermontSubtotals:10,314 NEWHAMPSHIRE Chesterfield7.8NNEChesterfieldCentralSchool535OldChesterfieldRoad(603)3638301401Hinsdale0.7ENEHinsdaleElementarySchool 12SchoolStreet(603)3365332367 Hinsdale0.7ENEHinsdaleMiddle/HighSchool 49SchoolStreet(603)3365984299Richmond14.9ESaintBenedictCenter 95FayMartinRoad(603)2396485 40Winchester7.0EWinchesterSchool 15MaxwellCourt(603)9035927295 NewHampshireSubtotals:1,402MASSACHUSETTSBernardston8.2SSWBernardstonElementarySchool 37SchoolRoad(413)6489356172Bernardston7.5SFullCircleSchoolInc.21ParmenterRoad(413)6489468 36 Colrain11.8SWColrainCentral 22JacksonvilleRoad(413)6243451110 Gill9.4SGillElementarySchool 48BoyleRoad(413)8633255125 Gill9.3SGivingTreeSchoolInc.3WoodAvenue(413)8639218 18 Gill7.8SSENorthfieldMountHermonSchool1lamplighterWay(800)4953664650Leyden8.0SWPearlERhodesElementarySchool7BrattleboroRoad(413)772624546Northfield6.3SSENorthfieldElementarySchool104MainStreet(413)4985842173 Northfield6.8SSEPioneerValleyRegionalSchool97FSumnerTurnerDrive(413)4982931550Warwick10.9SEWarwickCommunitySchool 41WinchesterRoad(978)5449786 61MassachusettsSubtotals:1,941TOTAL:13,657 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZCommunityDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressPhoneCapacityCurrentCensusAmbul atoryPatientsWheel chairPatientsBedriddenPatientsVERMONTBrattleboro5.1NNWBrattleboroMemorialHospital17BelmontAvenue(802)25703416550202010Brattleboro6.1NNWBrattleboroRetreatAnnaMarshLane(802)258370011011010712Brattleboro6.0NNWHilltopHouse65HarrisAvenue(802)254552427201370Brattleboro5.8NNWHoltonHome158WesternAvenue(802)2544155352918101Brattleboro5.1NNWPineHeights187OakGroveAvenue(802)2570307808048284Brattleboro5.2NNWThompsonHouseNursingHome80MapleStreet(802)25449771005949100Vernon1.2SVernonAdventChristianHomes13GreenwayDrive(802)25480911169965340VermontSubtotals:53344732011017NEWHAMPSHIREWinchester6.6EApplewoodCare&RehabCenter8SnowRoad(603)239635570677600NewHampshireSubtotals:70677600TOTAL:60351432717017 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZCommunityDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressPhoneTransientsVehiclesVERMONT Brattleboro7.3NNWBrattleboroCountry Club UpperDummerstonRoad(802)25773805337 Brattleboro7.6NWCampWaubanongHinesburgRoad(802)2548026 75 4 Brattleboro6.5NNWWestRiverMarina 28SpringTreeRoad(802)57911906425 Dummerston10.4NBrattleboroNorthKOACampgroundandCottages1238UsRoute5(802)254590812850Dummerston12.5NNWGreenMountainCamp565GreenMountainCampRoad(802)2571751 52 4 Dummerston9.9NHiddenAcresCampingResort792UsRoute5(802)2542098200 8 Guilford4.1NWFortDummer StatePark517OldGuilfordRoad(802)254261013151 Marlboro11.3NWCampNeringa147NeringaRoad(802)2548090139 6VermontSubtotals:842185 NEWHAMPSHIRE Chesterfield9.1NNECampSpofford 24Route9A(603)3634788266104 Chesterfield9.6NNEPineGroveSpringsCountryClub292Route9A(603)36344335337 Hinsdale1.3NHinsdaleCampground 29PineStreet(603)3368906287112Richmond12.4ECampShirRoy100AtholRoad(603)2394768266104Richmond12.6ECampTakodah 55FitzwilliamRoad(603)239478123010Richmond11.8ECampWiyaka100SandyPondRoad(603)2394841 10Winchester7.4EForestLakeCampingGround331KeeneRoad(603)2394267384150Winchester6.6EKulick'sMarket 30WarwickRoad#8(603)2394843300150Winchester5.7NEPisgahStatePark N/A(603)23981536425 NewHampshireSubtotals:186 0692MASSACHUSETTSBernardston6.9SCrumpin FoxClub 87ParmenterRoad(413)64891015030 Northfield5.5SECampNorthfield 56PiersonRoad(413)4985984139 6 Northfield6.2SSENorthfieldGolfClub 31HoltonStreet(413)49824325644MassachusettsSubtotals:24580TOTAL:2,947957 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZCommunityDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressPhoneTransientsVehiclesVERMONTBrattleboroNNW5.91868CrosbyHouse175WesternAvenue(800)638514863BrattleboroNNW7.3America'sBestInn959PutneyRoad(802)254458315075BrattleboroNNW5.5Artist'sLoftBed&Breakfast103MainStreet#3(802)257518121BrattleboroNNW7.2ColonialMotelandSpa889PutneyRoad(802)257773313869BrattleboroNW6.6Dalem'sChaletInc78SouthStreet(802)25443235427BrattleboroNNW4.9EconoLodge515CanalStreet(802)25423608040BrattleboroNNW6.1FortyPutneyRoadBedandBreakfast192PutneyRoad(802)2546268105BrattleboroNNW8HamptonInnBrattleboro,VT1378PutneyRoad(802)254570014673BrattleboroNNW7.4HolidayInnExpressHotel&SuitesBrattleboro100ChickeringRoad(802)257240017286BrattleboroNNW7.9LamplighterInnMotel1336PutneyRoad#1(802)25480259045BrattleboroNNW5.5LatchisHotel50MainStreet(802)25463006030BrattleboroNNW7.5MeadowlarkInn13OrchardStreet(800)6166359168BrattleboroNW8.6MollyStarkMotel829MarlboroRoad(802)25424402814BrattleboroNNW7.8Motel6Brattleboro1254PutneyRoad(802)254600711859BrattleboroNNW8.1QualityInnandConferenceCenter1380PutneyRoad(802)2548701210105BrattleboroNW9StoneybrookMotel995MarlboroRoad(802)25890204623BrattleboroNNW7.5Super8Motel1043PutneyRoad(802)254888912864BrattleboroNW7.3WestVillageMotel1206WesternAvenue(802)25456104020GuilfordW7.8GreenRiverBridgeHouse2435StageRoad(802)2575771189HalifaxW13.6AbbottsGlen3542VtRoute112(802)36825254020MarlboroWNW14GoldenEagleMotel5383Route9(802)46455403618MarlboroWNW12.1WhetstoneInn550SouthRoad(802)25425002211VermontSubtotals:1610805NEWHAMPSHIREChesterfieldN8.2ChesterfieldInn20CrossRoad(603)25632113015ChesterfieldNNE9.2LakeSpoffordCabinsSpoffordCabinsWay(603)36380283313ChesterfieldNNE10.5OldNewEnglandVillage45SShoreRoad(603)36389043313ChesterfieldNNW7.5RiversideHotel913GulfRoad(877)25670506030NewHampshireSubtotals:15671 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommunityDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressPhoneTransientsVehiclesMASSACHUSETTSBernardstonS7.6TheInnatCrumpin Fox71NorthfieldRoad(413)64891312312BernardstonS7.2WindmillMotel497NorthfieldRoad(413)64891522010NorthfieldSSE6.4CentennialHouseB&BandConferenceCenter94MainStreet(413)498592142MassachusettsSubtotals:4724TOTAL:1,813900 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 3.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ APPENDIXFTelephoneSurvey VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F. TELEPHONESURVEYF.1 IntroductionThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesfortheVermontYankeeEPZrequirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseverallimitationswhenappliedtoemergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneededtoidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,CensusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlymaynotaccuratelyrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.TheseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleoftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerningfamilydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthesurveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheform"Whatwouldyoudoif-?"andotherquestionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar("Howlongdoesittakeyouto-?")

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlanAttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthesurveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeofapproximately500completedsurveyformsyi eldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4.5%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alistofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF 1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlayingCensusdataandtheEPZboundary,againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsforeachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF 1.NotethattheaveragehouseholdsizecomputedinTableF 1wasanestimateforsamplingpurposesandwasnotuse dintheETEstudy.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableF 1.VermontYankeeTelephoneSurveySamplingPlanZipCodePopulationwithinEPZ(2010)HouseholdsRequiredSample013016882868013372,6001,08031013405252216013547262317013602,7241,1143201378141602034415422036034436702778034464391685034514,1161,71350034621,53563818034661,39954416034704,8621,864540530116,7747,508217053421667220534658326780535162281053542,20886525053582009730536355251Total41,01517,261500AverageHouseholdSize: 2.38TotalSampleRequired: 500 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SurveyResultsTheresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsoftheareacanbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobileownership,andautomobileavailability.Thedistributionsofthetimetoperformcertainpre evacuationactivitiesarethesecondcategoryofsurveyresults.Thesedataareprocessedtodevelopthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedinSection5.Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshavea"don'tknow"(DK)or"refused"entryforaresponse.ItisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthistypetoaccepttheanswersofarespondentwhooffersaDKres ponseforafewquestionsorwhorefusestoanswerafewquestions.ToaddresstheissueofoccasionalDK/refusedresponsesfromalargesample,thepracticeistoassumethatthedistributionoftheseresponsesisthesameastheunderlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDK/refusedresponsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.F.2.1 HouseholdDemographicResultsHouseholdSizeFigureF 1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ.Theaveragehouseholdcontains2.43people.Theestimatedhouseholdsize(2.38persons)usedtodeterminethesurveysample(TableF 1)wasdrawnfromCensusdata.ThecloseagreementbetweentheaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthesurveyandfromtheCensusisanindicationofthereliabilit yofthesurvey.FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ0%10%20%30%40%50%

60%1234567%ofHouseholds HouseholdSizeVermontYankeeHouseholdSize VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AutomobileOwnershipTheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis1.95.Itshouldbenotedthatapproximately2.0percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF 2.FigureF 3andFigureF 4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.Notethatthemajorityofhouseholdswithoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2ormorepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVermontYankeeVehicleAvailability VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholdsFigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds0%20%40%60%80%100%012345%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 1 5PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 0%20%40%60%

80%100%012345%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 6 9+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9+People VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ridesharing90%ofthehouseholdssurveyedwhodonotownavehiclerespondedthattheywouldsharearidewithaneighbor,relative,orfriendifacarwasnotavailabletothemwhenadvisedtoevacuateintheeventofanemergency..Note,however,thatonlythosehouseholdswithnoaccesstoavehicle-10totaloutofthesamplesizeof500-answer edthisquestion.Thus,theresultsarenotstatisticallysignificant.Assuch,theNRCrecommendationof50%ridesharingisusedthroughoutthisstudy.FigureF 5presentsthisresponse.FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNoDK/Refused

%ofHouseholdsVermontYankeeRidesharewithNeighbor/Friend VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommutersFigureF 6presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.09commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ,and66%ofhouseholdshaveatleastonecommuter.FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ0%10%20%30%

40%50%01234+%ofHouseholds NumberofCommutersVermontYankeeCommuters VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommuterTravelModesFigureF 7presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.05employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZF.2.2 EvacuationResponseSeveralquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulation'sresponsetoanemergency.Thesearenowdiscussed:"Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?"TheresponseisshowninFigureF 8.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.33vehicles."Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?"Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,41percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembersbeforeevacuatingand59percentindicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembers."Ifyouhadahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?"Basedontheresponsestothesurvey,80percentofhouseholdshaveafamilypet.Ofthehouseholdswithpets,92percentofthemindicatedthattheywouldtaketheirpetswiththem,asshowninFigur eF 9.0.0%0.7%3.3%91.1%4.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%RailBusWalk/BikeDriveAloneCarpool(2+)%ofCommuters ModeofTravelVermontYankeeTravelModetoWork VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Whenevacuatingwithyourhouseholdpet,wouldyouevacuatetoareceptioncenteriftheydonotacceptpets?"Ofthehouseholdsevacuatingwithpets,6percentofhouseholdswouldevacuatetoareceptioncenterwiththeirpet,asshowninFigureF 10."Doyouhaveaserviceanimal?"AsshowninFigureF 11,2percentofthehouseholdswithpetshaveaserviceanimal."Whenevacuatingyourserviceanimal,wouldyouevacuatetoareceptioncenter?"AsshowninFigureF 12,40percentofhouseholdswithserviceanimalswouldevacuatetoareceptioncenterwiththeirserviceanimal.Thisresultisnotstatisticallysignif icantduetothesmallsamplesizeofrespondentswithaserviceanimal.FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation0%20%40%60%80%100%01234%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVehiclesUsedforEvacuation VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPetsFigureF10.HouseholdsevacuatingwithPetstoReceptionCenters0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholdswithPets HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPetstoCareCenterswhodonotAcceptPets VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF11.HouseholdswithServiceAnimalsFigureF12.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithServiceAnimalstoReceptionCenters"Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationregardingcompliancewithinstructionstoshelterinplace.Theresultsindicatethat84percentofhouseholdswhoareadvisedtoshelterinplacewoulddoso;theremaining16percentwouldchoosetoevacuateth earea.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.Thus,thedataobtainedaboveisingoodagreementwiththefederalguidance.0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds HouseholdswithServiceAnimals 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo HouseholdsEvacuatingwithServiceAnimalstoReceptionCenters VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationspecificallyrelatedtothepossibilityofastagedevacuation.Thatis,askingapopulationtoshelterinplacenowandthentoevacu ateafteraspecifiedperiodoftime.Resultsindicatethat73percentofhouseholdswouldfollowinstructionsanddelaythestartofevacuationuntilsoadvised,whilethebalanceof27percentwouldchoosetobeginevacuatingimmediately.F.2.3 TimeDistributionResultsThesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuationactivities.Theseact ivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheirday to daylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftheresponder'sexperience.ThemobilizationdistributionsprovidedbelowaretheresultofhavingappliedtheanalysisdescribedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization."Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?"FigureF 13presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyabout60minutes.Eightypercentcanleavewithin15m inutes.FigureF13.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School

0%20%40%60%80%100%015304560%ofCommuters PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?"FigureF 14presentstheworktohometraveltimefortheEPZ.About90percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithinabout40minutesofleavingwork;allwithin120minutes.FigureF14.WorktoHomeTravelTime

0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0153045607590105120

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)WorktoHomeTravel VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?"FigureF 15presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthisactivitymimicsafamily'spreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.ThedistributionshowninFigureF 15hasalong"tail."About90percentofhouseholdscanbereadytoleavehomewithin105minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditional90minutes.FigureF15.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210

%ofHouseholds PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakeyoutoclear6to8inchesofsnowfromyourdriveway?"Duringadverse,snowyweatherconditions,anadditionalactivitymustbeperformedbeforeresidentscandepartontheevacuationtrip.Althoughsnowscenariosassumethattheroadsandhighwayshavebeenplowedandarepassable(albeitatlowerspeedsandcapacities),itmaybenecessarytoclearaprivatedrivewaypriortoleavingthehomesothatthevehiclecanaccessthestreet.FigureF 16presentsthetimedistributionforremoving6to8inchesofsnowfromadriveway.Thetimedistributionforclearingthedrivewayhasalongtail;about79percentofdrivewaysarepassablewithin30minutes.Thelastdrivewayisclearedthreehoursafterthestartofthisactivity.Notethatthoserespondents(49%)whoansweredthattheywouldnottaketimetocleartheirdrivewaywereassumedtobereadyimmediatelyatthestartofthisactivity.Essentiallyth eywoulddrivethroughthesnowonthedrivewaytoaccesstheroadwayandbegintheirevacuationtrip.FigureF16.TimetoClearDrivewayof6" 8"ofSnowF.3 ConclusionsThetelephonesurveyprovidesvaluable,relevantdataassociatedwiththeEPZpopulation,whichhavebeenusedtoquantifydemographicsspecifictotheEPZ,and"mobilizationtime"whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180

%ofHouseholds Time(min)TimetoRemoveSnowfromDriveway VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ATTACHMENTATelephoneSurveyInstrument VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TelephoneSurveyInstrumentHello,mynameis___________andI'mconductingasurveyfortheStateEmergencyManagementAgenciesofMassachusetts,NewHampshireandVermont.Theinformationyouprovidewillbeusedforemergencyplanningtoenhancelocalresponseplans.Emergencyplanningforsomehazardsmayrequireevacuation.Youranswerstomyquestionswillgreatlycontributetothiseffort.Iwillnotaskforyourname.COL.1Unused COL.2Unused COL.3Unused COL.4Unused COL.5Unused SexCOL.81Male2FemaleINTERVIEWER:ASKTOSPEAKTOTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLDORTHESPOUSEOFTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLD.(Terminatecallifnotaresidence.)

DONOTASK:1A.Recordareacode.ToBeDeterminedCOL.9 111B.Recordexchangenumber.ToBeDeterminedCOL.12 142.Whatisyourhomezipcode?COL.15 193A.Intotal,howmanycars,orothervehiclesareusuallyavailabletothehousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.20 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIX7SEVEN8EIGHT9NINEORMORE0ZERO(NONE)XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.3BQ.3B3B.Inanemergency,couldyougetaride outoftheareawithaneighbororfriend?COL.211YES2NOXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED4.Howmanypeopleusuallyliveinthishousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.22 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIXCOL.230TEN1ELEVEN2TWELVE3THIRTEEN4FOURTEEN5FIFTENN VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17SEVEN 8EIGHT9NINE6SIXTEEN7SEVENTEEN8EIGHTEEN9NINETEENORMOREXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED5.Howmanyadultsinthehouseholdcommute toajob,ortocollegeonadailybasis?COL.24 0ZERO1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOURORMORE5DON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.9Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.9INTERVIEWER:ForeachpersonidentifiedinQuestion5,askQuestions6,7,and8.6.Thinkingaboutcommuter#1,howdoesthatpersonusuallytraveltoworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)Commuter#1 COL.25Commuter#2 COL.26Commuter#3COL.27Commuter#4 COL.28Rail1 1 1 1Bus2 2 2 2Walk/Bicycle3 3 3 3DriveAlone4 4 4 4Carpool 2ormorepeople5 5 5 5Don'tknow/Refused6 6 6 6 7.Howmuchtimeonaverage,wouldittakeCommuter#1totravelhomefromworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.29COL.30COL.31 COL.3215MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.33COL.34COL.35 COL.3615MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED8.ApproximatelyhowmuchtimedoesittakeCommuter#1tocompletepreparationforleavingworkorcollegepriortostartingthetriphome?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.37COL.38COL.39 COL.4015MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 9XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED COMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.41COL.42COL.43 COL.4415MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 9XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNO W/REFUSED9.Ifyouwereadvisedbylocalauthoritiestoevacuate,howmuchtimewouldittakethehouseholdtopackclothing,medications,securethehouse,loadthecar,andcompletepreparationspriortoevacuatingthearea?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.45COL.46 1LESSTHAN15MINUTES13HOURSTO3HOURS15MINUTES215 30MINUTES23HOURS16MINUTESTO3HOURS30MINUTES 331 45MINUTES33HOURS31MINUTESTO3HOURS45MINUTES 446MINUTES-1HOUR43HOURS46MINUTESTO4HOURS51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES54HOURSTO4HOURS15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES64HOURS16MINUTESTO4HOURS30MINUTES 71HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES74HOURS31MINUTESTO4HOURS45MINUTES 81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS84HOURS46MINUTESTO5HOURS92HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES95HOURSTO5HOURS30MINUTES VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.102HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES05HOURS31MINUTESTO6HOURSX2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES XOVER6HOURS(SPECIFY_______)Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSCOL.471 DON'TKNOW/REFUSED10.Ifthereis6 8"ofsnowonyourdrivewayorcurb,wouldyouneedtoshovelouttoevacuate?Ifyes,howmuchtime,onaverage,wouldittakeyoutoclearthe6 8"ofsnowtomovethecarfromthedrivewayorcurbtobegintheevacuationtrip?Assumetheroadsarepassable.(DONOTREADRESPONSES)COL.48COL.49 1LESSTHAN15MINUTES1OVER3HOURS(SPECIFY_______)215 30MINUTES2 DON'TKNOW/REFUSED 331 45MINUTES446MINUTES-1HOUR51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES 71HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES 81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS92HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES02HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES X2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSZNO,WILLNOTSHOVELOU T11.Pleasechooseoneofthefollowing(READANSWERS):A.Iwouldawaitthereturnofhouseholdcommuterstoevacuatetogether.B.Iwouldevacuateindependentlyandmeetotherhouseholdmemberslater.COL.50 1A2BXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED12.Howmanyvehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.511ONE2 TWO3 THREE4FOUR5 FIVE6 SIX7SEVEN8 EIGHT9 NINEORMORE0 ZERO(NONE)

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1X DON'TKNOW/REFUSED13A.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.521A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED 13B.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.531A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED14AIfyouhaveahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?(READANSWERS)COL.54SKIPTO1DON'THAVEAPE TENDSURVEY2YESQ.14B3NOENDSURVEYXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDENDSURVEY 14BWhenevacuatingwithyourhouseholdpet,wouldyouevacuatetoareceptioncenteriftheydonotacceptpets?(READANSWERS)COL.551YES2NO,WOULDREMAINATHOME3NO,WOULDEVACUATETOALOCATIONWHEREICOULDTAKEMYPE TXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED15ADoyouhaveaserviceanimal?(READANSWER)COL.56SKIPTO1YESQ.15B2NOENDSURVEYXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDENDSURVEY 15BWhenevacuatingwithyourserviceanimal,wouldyouevacuatetoareceptioncenter?(READANSWERS)COL.571YES2NO,WOULDREMAINATHOME3NO,WOULDEVACUATETOADIFFERENTLOCATIONXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDThankyouverymuch._______________________________(TELEPHONENUMBERCALLED)

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantF 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1IFREQUESTED:Foradditionalinformation,contactyourStateEmergencyManagementAgencyduringnormalbusinesshours.StateEMAPhone Massachusetts(508)8202000NewHampshire(603)2712231Vermont(800)3470488 APPENDIXGTrafficManagementPlan VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantG 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLANNUREG/CR 7002indicatesthattheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbythestatesshouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwereprovidedbyeachstate.TheseplanswerereviewedandtheTCPs/ACPsweremodeledaccordingly.G.1 TrafficandAccessControlPointsAsdiscussedinSection9,trafficcontrolpointsatintersections(whicharecontrolled)aremodeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapre timedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasatrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypewaschangedtoanactuatedsignalintheDYNE VIIsystem.TableK 2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumberforthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.IftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeingaTCP,thecontroltypeisindicatedas"TrafficControlPoint"inTableK 2.ItisassumedthatACPswillbeestablishedwithin2hoursoftheadvisorytoevacuatetodiscouragethroughtravelersfromusingmajorthroughrouteswhichtraversetheEPZ.AsdiscussedinSection3.7,externaltrafficwasconsideredontworouteswhichtraversethestudyarea-I 91andRoute2-inthisanalysis.Thegenerationoftheexternaltripsceasedat2hoursaftertheadvisorytoevacuateinthesimulationduetotheACPs.TheseACPSareconcentratedonroadwaysgivingaccesstotheEPZ.ThesesACPswouldbemannedduringevacuationbytrafficguideswhowoulddirectevacueesintheproperdirectionawayfromVYNP Pandfacilitatetheflowoftrafficthroughtheintersections.FigureG 1mapstheTCPs/ACPsidentifiedinthestateemergencyplans.ThisstudydidnotidentifyanyadditionalintersectionsthatshouldbeidentifiedasTCPsorACPs.However,asdiscussedinSection7.3andshowninFigures7 3through7 6,thereispronouncedtrafficcongestioninBrattleboro,VT.These,inadditiontotheACPsonI 91,shouldbegiventoppriorityinassigningresourcesbecausetheyhandlethehighestvehiclevolumes.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantG 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 1.TrafficandAccessControlPointsfortheVYNPP APPENDIXHEvacuationRegions VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1H. EVACUATIONREGIONSThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH 1)andmapsofallEvacuationRegions.ThepercentagespresentedinTableH 1arebasedonthemethodologydiscussedinassumption5ofSection2.2andshowninFigure2 1.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhousehol dswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableH 1.PercentofCommunityPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegionRegionDescriptionSectorCommunitiesVermontNewHampshireMassachusettsBrattleboroDummerstonGuilfordHalifaxMarlboroVernonChesterfieldHinsdaleRichmondSwanzeyWinchesterBernardstonColrainGillGreenfieldLeydenNorthfieldWarwickR012 MileRadius20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R025 MileRadius100%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%100%20%R03FullEPZ100%100%100%100%20%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesR04NNW,NR,A20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%100%20%R05NNEB20%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%100%20%NECSeeRegionR02R06ENE,ED,E100%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%R07ESESSEF,G,H100%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R08S,SSWJ,K100%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R09SWL100%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%R10WSWNWM,N,P,Q20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5Miles(Unstable)R11NNW,NR,A20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%100%20%R12NNEB20%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%100%20%R13NEEC,D,E20%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%ESESSEF,G,HSeeRegionR07SJSeeRegionR08R14SSWWK,L,M,N20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%WNW,NWP,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5Miles(Neutral)NNWNNER,A,BSeeRegionR11NE,ENEC,DSeeRegionR13R15EE20%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%ESESSEF,G,HSeeRegionR07R16SJ100%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%SSWWK,L,M,NSeeRegionR14WNW,NWP,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5Miles(Stable)NNWNNER,A,BSeeRegionR04NECSeeRegionR02ENESD,E,F,G,H,JSeeRegionR07SSWKSeeRegionR08SWLSeeRegionR09WSWNWM,N,P,QSeeRegionR10Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto10Miles(Unstable)R17NA20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%100%100%100%100%20%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RegionDescriptionSectorCommunitiesVermontNewHampshireMassachusettsBrattleboroDummerstonGuilfordHalifaxMarlboroVernonChesterfieldHinsdaleRichmondSwanzeyWinchesterBernardstonColrainGillGreenfieldLeydenNorthfieldWarwickR18NNEB20%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%100%20%R19NEC20%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%100%20%100%100%20%20%R20ENE,ED,E20%20%100%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%100%20%20%100%20%20%R21ESEF100%20%100%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R22SEG100%100%100%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R23SSEH100%100%100%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R24SJ100%100%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R25SSWK100%100%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R26SWL20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R27WSWM20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R28WN20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R29WNWP20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%R30NWQ20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%R31NNWR20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%100%Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto10Miles(Neutral)R32NA20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%100%100%20%100%20%R33NNEB20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%100%20%NECSeeRegionR19ENEDSeeRegionR20R34EE20%20%100%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%ESEFSeeRegionR10R35SEG100%100%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%SSEHSeeRegionR23R36SJ100%100%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R37SSWK20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%SWLSeeRegionR26WSWMSeeRegionR27R38WN20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%WNWPSeeRegionR29NWQSeeRegionR30NNWRSeeRegionR31Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto10Miles(Stable)R39WNNEN,P,Q,R,A,B20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%R40NEC100%100%100%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%100%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%R41ENED100%100%100%100%20%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%ESE,F,G,H,JSeeRegionR23R42SSWK100%100%100%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R43SWL100%100%100%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%100%20%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RegionDescriptionSectorCommunitiesVermontNewHampshireMassachusettsBrattleboroDummerstonGuilfordHalifaxMarlboroVernonChesterfieldHinsdaleRichmondSwanzeyWinchesterBernardstonColrainGillGreenfieldLeydenNorthfieldWarwickR44WSWM20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%100%20%100%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesR45NNW,NR,A20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%100%20%R46NNEB20%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%100%20%R47NEC100%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%100%20%R48ENE,ED,E100%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%R49ESESSEF,G,H100%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R50S,SSWJ,K100%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R51SWL100%20%100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%R52WSWNWM,N,P,Q20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%5 MileRegionSeeRegionR47 KeyCommunitiesEvacuateCommunitiesShelter in PlaceShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 1.RegionR01 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 2.RegionR02 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 3.RegionR03 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 4.RegionR04 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 5.RegionR05 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 6.RegionR06 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 7.RegionR07 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 9.RegionR09 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH10.RegionR10 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH11.RegionR11 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH12.RegionR12 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH13.RegionR13 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH14.RegionR14 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH15.RegionR15 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH16.RegionR16 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH17.RegionR17 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH18.RegionR18 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH19.RegionR19 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH20.RegionR20 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH21.RegionR21 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH22.RegionR22 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH23.RegionR23 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH24.RegionR24 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH25.RegionR25 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH26.RegionR26 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH27.RegionR27 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH28.RegionR28 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH29.RegionR29 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH30.RegionR30 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH31.RegionR31 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH32.RegionR32 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH33.RegionR33 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH34.RegionR34 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH35.RegionR35 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH36.RegionR36 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH37.RegionR37 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH38.RegionR38 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH39.RegionR39 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH40.RegionR40 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH41.RegionR41 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH42.RegionR42 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH43.RegionR43 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH44.RegionR44 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH45.RegionR45 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 50KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH46.RegionR46 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 51KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH47.RegionR47 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 52KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH48.RegionR48 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 53KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH49.RegionR49 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 54KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH50.RegionR50 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 55KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH51.RegionR51 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantH 56KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH52.RegionR52 APPENDIXJRepresentativeInputstoandOutputsfromtheDYNEVIISystem VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEMThisappendixpresentsdatainputtoandoutputfromtheDYNEVIISystem.TableJ 1providesthevolumeandqueuesforthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsinthestudyarea.RefertoTableK 2andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachintersection.TableJ 2providessource(vehicleloading)anddestinationinformationforseveralroadwaysegments(links)intheanalysisnetwork.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.TableJ 3providesnetwork-widestatistics(averagetraveltime,averagespeedandnumberofvehicles)foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)foreachscenario.TableJ 4providesstatistics(averagespeedandtraveltime)forthemajorevacuationroutes-I 91,SR9andUS 5-foranevac uationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.AsdiscussedinSection7.3andshowninFigures7 3through7 6,US 9westboundiscongestedformostoftheevacuation.Assuch,theaveragespeedsarecomparablyslower(andtraveltimeslonger)thanotherevacuationroutes.TableJ 5providesthenumberofvehiclesdischargedandthecumulativepercentoftotalvehiclesdischargedforeachlinkexitingtheanalysisnetwork,foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapsh owingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.FigureJ 1throughFigureJ 14plotthetripgenerationtimeversustheETEforeachofthe14Scenariosconsidered.ThedistancebetweenthetripgenerationandETEcurvesisthetraveltime.PlotsoftripgenerationversusETEarein dicativeoftheleveloftrafficcongestionduringevacuation.Forlowpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesareclosetogether,indicatingshorttraveltimesandminimaltrafficcongestion.Forhigherpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesarefartherapartindicatinglongertraveltimesandthepresenceoftrafficcongestion.AsseeninFigureJ 1throughFigur eJ 14,thecurvesarespatiallyseparatedbyupto20minutes,indicatingthatthereissomedegreeofcongestionbutthatitisnotwidespread.(ThecongestionpatternsduringafullEPZevacuationarediscussedinSection7.3.)

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersectionsNodeLocationIntersection ControlApproach (UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)774US 5andFairgroundRdActuated4327209051,9101778708287587200TOTAL3,010447SR30&EastWestRdActuated6458021166482,148180TOTAL2,950532SR9&GreenleafStActuated2678902662,62005331360TOTAL2,845289SR9&SR12Actuated2881,522029093808731700TOTAL2,630266SR9&SouthStActuated532309332,4822175311377TOTAL2,622129SR2andAveAActuated1283901302,0720589404018800TOTAL2,515110NewtonSt&SR2AActuated3022,28353303240TOTAL2,307302SR2A&RiverStActuated8781,884363043865305120TOTAL2,282 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeLocationIntersection ControlApproach (UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)114US 5andSR2AActuated11571801201,521017700TOTAL2,239253SR9&SR63Actuated2521,23002845102838413TOTAL2,122 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInputLinkNumberVehiclesEnteringNetworkonthisLinkDirectionalPreferenceDestination NodesDestinationCapacity373166E82261,69884591,69882451,6987642NW82813,8101071553NW80724,500125170N80011,69887183,81085051,6986115S80034,50081791,69881921,69866873NW84341,69884461,698577664NW82621,69886221,34886251,34827623SE87151,34887101,69881541,69855523SW83661,348999121S81921,698 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)Scenario1234567Network WideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)1.61.81.51.61.61.71.9Network WideAverageSpeed(mph)37.132.741.436.538.736.532.2TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork41,07341,19835,35035,43831,31742,08842,178Scenario891011121314Network WideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)2.01.51.71.71.61.91.9Network WideAverageSpeed(mph)30.140.636.134.637.831.631.6TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork42,27636,36936,46336,57732,13945,57441,061TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)ElapsedTime(hours)1234RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)Travel Time(min)SpeedTravel TimeSpeedTravelTimeSpeedTravel TimeI 91NB25.866.423.370.022.169.922.270.022.1I 91SB25.870.022.169.922.169.822.270.022.1SR9EB10.753.212.153.412.051.712.453.612.0SR9WB14.917.252.05.9150.921.641.347.518.8US 5NB14.817.251.641.321.540.521.941.621.3US 5SB12.645.316.645.616.545.416.645.716.5 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1NetworkExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)1234CumulativeVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTimeCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTime42,2135,4336,9057,13419%18%18%17%1452,9426,1717,8557,98425%20%20%20%293885177187481%2%2%2%3003751,5011,8922,0013%5%5%5%3211425336556911%2%2%2%3292148079239492%3%2%2%3914771,0631,2311,2804%3%3%3%5411593514104241%1%1%1%56263544470%0%0%0%6565371,4051,6001,6525%5%4%4%6673701,2291,4591,5063%4%4%4%6804029231,0751,1213%3%3%3%732382643443690%1%1%1%7492059541,3351,4282%3%3%4%8211234956456721%2%2%2%855822172602721%1%1%1%8742926236786933%2%2%2%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)1234CumulativeVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTimeCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTime8763006477117283%2%2%2%986563044234380%1%1%1%9933831,2051,4561,5223%4%4%4%10765841,5441,8091,8835%5%5%5%1105853874644811%1%1%1%11085231,4921,7841,8655%5%5%5%12391,0242,6104,1544,9079%9%11%12%

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario1)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario2)TripGenerationETE VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario3)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario4)TripGenerationETE VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario5)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario6)TripGenerationETE VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario7)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Snow (Scenario8)TripGenerationETE VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario9)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario10)TripGenerationETE VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11)FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Snow (Scenario11)TripGenerationETE 0%20%

40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario12)TripGenerationETE VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantJ 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Weekend,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)FigureJ14.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent (Scenario13)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario14)TripGenerationETE APPENDIXKEvacuationRoadwayNetwork VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORKAsdiscussedinSection1.3,alink nodeanalysisnetworkwasconstructedtomodeltheroadwaynetworkwithinthestudyarea.FigureK 1providesanoverviewofthelink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thefigurehasbeendividedupinto50moredetailedfigures(FigureK 2throughFigureK 51)whichshoweachofthelinksandnodesinthenetwork.TheanalysisnetworkwascalibratedusingtheobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveyconductedinDecember2011.TableK 1liststhecharacteristicsofeachroadwaysectionmodeledintheETEanalysis.Eachlinkisidentifiedbyitsroadnameandtheupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers.ThegeographiclocationofeachlinkcanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovidedinTableK 1.TheroadwaytypeidentifiedinTableK 1isgenerallybasedonthefollowingcriteria: Freeway:limitedaccesshighway,2ormorelanesineachdirection,highfreeflowspeeds Freewayramp:rampontooroffofalimitedaccesshighway Majorarterial:3ormorelanesineachdirection Minorarterial:2ormorelanesineachdirection Collector:singlelaneineachdirection Localroadways:singlela neineachdirection,localroadswithlowfreeflowspeedsTheterm,"No.ofLanes"inTableK 1identifiesthenumberoflanesthatextendthroughoutthelengthofthelink.Manylinkshaveadditionallanesontheimmediateapproachtoanintersection(turnpockets);thesehav ebeenrecordedandenteredintotheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.AsdiscussedinSection1.3,lanewidthandshoulderwidthwerenotphysicallymeasuredduringtheroadsurvey.Rather,estimatesofthesemeasureswerebasedonvisualobservationsandrecordedimages.TableK 2identifieseac hnodeinthenetworkthatiscontrolledandthetypeofcontrol(stopsign,yieldsign,pre timedsignal,actuatedsignal,trafficcontrolpoint)atthatnode.UncontrollednodesarenotincludedinTableK 2.Thelocationofeachnodecanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovided.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 1.VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantLink NodeAnalysisNetwork VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1aFigureK11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK34.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK35.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK36.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK37.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK38.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK39.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK40.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK41.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK42.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid41 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK43.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid42 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK44.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid43 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK45.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid44 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK46.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid45 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK47.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid46 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK48.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid47 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 50KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK49.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid48 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 51KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK50.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid49 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 52KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK51.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid50 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 53KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristicsLink#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber11804SR101MINORARTERIAL8582124190045922882HOPESTLOCALROADWAY415112413503042334I 91FREEWAY1256212422507046443I 91FREEWAY1256212422507046545I 91FREEWAY23842124225070466488I 91OFFRAMPNFREEWAYRAMP2573112417004546754I 91FREEWAY2384212422507046856I 91FREEWAY1183212422507046965I 91FREEWAY11832124225070461067I 91FREEWAY58042124225070441176I 91FREEWAY58042124225070441278I 91FREEWAY13792124225070441387I 91FREEWAY13792124225070441489I 91FREEWAY36142124225070441598I 91FREEWAY360721242250704416911I 91FREEWAY142521242250704417109I 91FREEWAY1642212422507044181113I 91FREEWAY2797212422507044191210I 91FREEWAY2556212422507044201314I 91FREEWAY4478212422507044211412I 91FREEWAY4311212422507044221419I 91FREEWAY2143212422507038231510I 91ONRAMPFREEWAYRAMP2516112417004544241617US 5MINORARTERIAL9241124135030442516876US 5OFFRAMPFREEWAYRAMP1133112417004544261716US 5MINORARTERIAL924112417503044271718US 5OFFRAMPFREEWAYRAMP14001124170045442817119US 5MINORARTERIAL1456112417503544 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 54KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber291816US 5ONRAMPFREEWAYRAMP12801124175045443018127SR2MAJORARTERIAL27082124190045443118876SR2MINORARTERIAL2283212419004544321914I 91FREEWAY2143212422507038331920I 91FREEWAY6336212422507038342019I 91FREEWAY6336212422507038352021I 91FREEWAY4898212422507038362120I 91FREEWAY4898212422507038372122I 91FREEWAY4268212422507038382221I 91FREEWAY4237212422507038392223I 91OFFRAMPFREEWAYRAMP1146112417504538402226I 91FREEWAY1078212422507038412324I 91ONRAMPFREEWAYRAMP1200112417004538422325SR10MINORARTERIAL11281124170045384323930SR10MINORARTERIAL598112417004538442425I 91OFFRAMPFREEWAYRAMP1291112417004538452426I 91FREEWAY962212422507038462427I 91FREEWAY3843212422507038472522I 91ONRAMPFREEWAYRAMP1168112417004538482523SR10MINORARTERIAL1128112417504538492526I 91ONRAMPFREEWAYRAMP8271124135030385025660SR10MINORARTERIAL2330112417504538512622I 91FREEWAY1078212422507038522623I 91OFFRAMPFREEWAYRAMP843112417503038532624I 91FREEWAY962212422507038542724I 91FREEWAY3843212422507038552728I 91FREEWAY7675212422507038562827I 91FREEWAY7624212422507038572829I 91FREEWAY4003212422507031582928I 91FREEWAY4005212422507031 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 55KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber592930I 91FREEWAY7426212422507031603029I 91FREEWAY7426212422507031613031I 91FREEWAY5858212422507031623130I 91FREEWAY5858212422507031633132I 91FREEWAY8980212422507031643231I 91FREEWAY8989212422507031653233I 91FREEWAY6330212422507025663332I 91FREEWAY6330212422507025673334I 91FREEWAY6102212422507025683433I 91FREEWAY6099212422507025693439I 91FREEWAY2241212422507025703534I 91FREEWAY5421212422507023713536I 91FREEWAY3269212422507023723635I 91FREEWAY3283212422507023733637I 91FREEWAY2514212422507023743736I 91FREEWAY2504212422507023753743I 91ONRAMPFREEWAYRAMP1277112417004523763744I 91FREEWAY1190212422507023773842I 91OFFRAMPFREEWAYRAMP1203112417004523783844I 91FREEWAY352212422507023793845I 91FREEWAY2159212422507023803940I 91FREEWAY1162212422507023814035I 91FREEWAY2018212422507023824237I 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5MAJORARTERIAL2004112417004513628419391SR142MINORARTERIAL1612112417005526629419420SR142MINORARTERIAL1355112417005525630419689TYLERHILLRDCOLLECTOR1070112413503025631420419SR142MINORARTERIAL1355112417005525632420421SR142MINORARTERIAL6626112417005525633421420SR142MINORARTERIAL6626112417005525634421422SR142MINORARTERIAL2173112417005525635422421SR142MINORARTERIAL2173112417005525636422423SR142MINORARTERIAL3575112417005523637423422SR142MINORARTERIAL3579112417005523638423424SR142MINORARTERIAL1185112417005523 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 75KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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91FREEWAY75221242250702EXITLINK3498349SR112COLLECTOR1073110117005020EXITLINK2448245SR119MINORARTERIAL1351112417004535EXITLINK1548154SR2MINORARTERIAL1561112417004550EXITLINK1798179US 5MINORARTERIAL1194112417004546EXITLINK2808281SR9MINORARTERIAL2018112417005010EXITLINK7188718SR9MINORARTERIAL172721241900609EXITLINK6228622US 5MINORARTERIAL81511241350302EXITLINK7788262SR12MINORARTERIAL231211241700552EXITLINK8028505SR12AMINORARTERIAL76111201700409EXITLINK8088497SR12MINORARTERIAL1389112413503019EXITLINK8098001SR101MINORARTERIAL41011241700459EXITLINK2018201SR63MINORARTERIAL858112417004548EXITLINK3668366ADAMSVILLERDMINORARTERIAL864112413503029EXITLINK4348434SR30MINORARTERIAL479411241700455 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 97KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumberEXITLINK4468446DOVERRDMINORARTERIAL189111241700404EXITLINK4598459SR68MINORARTERIAL1595112417004541EXITLINK7108710WMAINSTMAJORARTERIAL1403112417004050EXITLINK7158715WENDELLDEPOTRDMAJORARTERIAL940112413503049EXITLINK6868002SR2MAJORARTERIAL966112417005542EXITLINK38003I 91FREEWAY2051212422507046EXITLINK728072I 91FREEWAY75221242250702EXITLINK2258226TULLYRDCOLLECTOR1954112417004541EXITLINK1928192TURNERSFALLSRDCOLLECTOR1110112417004547EXITLINK6258625WESTMINISTERRDCOLLECTOR79911241350301 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 98KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlledNodeXCoordinateYCoordinate Control GridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber11700450153721TCPActuated94160787128302TCPUncontrolled4612161586843713TCPUncontrolled4415161642741284TCPUncontrolled4416161779640653TCPActuated4417161717039973Yield4423162928762130TCPActuated3825162816162194Stop3830162153983855TCPUncontrolled31381622223122774TCPUncontrolled23421622194121654Stop23431622649122643Stop23491618696129847TCPUncontrolled14531625034141464TCPUncontrolled13641633810169248TCPUncontrolled7741619014127801TCPActuated14751619271127865Stop14781624816140572TCPUncontrolled13821633452169434Stop6831634366170572TCPUncontrolled7841634856169391Stop789160795831257TCPUncontrolled4690160742730922Yield4692160698231262TCPActuated43107159434540183Stop43110160919030776Actuated46111161090031670Stop46112161189131884Stop46113161275932007Stop46114161338831968Actuated46118161861237895Actuated44119161649938681Actuated44120161434535484Actuated44122161226935734Yield44123161111635223Actuated44124161229035321Stop44126162406742009Actuated45129162730041169TCPActuated45136164330130155Stop48144166686536410Stop49177161321931013Actuated46178161545225900Stop46 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK 99KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinate Control GridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber182161879128926Stop46184162069432164Stop47185162735832272Stop47187162332737100Stop45188162513739411Actuated45190162001638895Actuated45199164187328373Stop48202164206329940Stop48204165112467324TCPActuated39205164513565486TCPActuated39206164146364280TCPActuated39213165215070790Stop39219168369266597Stop402281644262104370Stop262291645658104507Stop262321660985101174Stop27235167003397316Actuated33236167168199616Actuated27237167875595320Stop33241170169692863TCPActuated342511647291138726Stop162531651121146197TCPActuated162601652190174338Stop72661613620128761TCPActuated142681607491133998Stop142691602362135343Stop112751580739133530Stop102771572972132638Stop102791565777133277Stop102811637500144234Stop162871685951156989Stop82881692398154412Actuated92891693941154337TCPActuated92901696238154085Yield92931625043127824TCPActuated152941624696128803Actuated15300160807834244Stop44302161010131137Actuated46317158277457341Stop37321158380163630Stop37323158742763001Yield37331158580676185Stop30334158313283337Actuated30 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK100KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinate Control GridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber335158114785145Stop30341157021794305Stop29351158049760351Stop36352158003461110Stop36353157768164077Stop36355157522465996Stop36356157335166097Stop363741630806115174Actuated233911634165102508Stop26392163537097715Stop32403164995382684TCPUncontrolled32410164533166523Stop394181625260140429Yield134231627522116175TCPUncontrolled234251626072121494TCPUncontrolled234281626155126139Actuated154301602730162995TCPUncontrolled54381593346163307Stop54471609984159137TCPActuated64641685018135326Stop174651685307136362Stop174701694683147989Actuated184741679116123076Stop274911701286120091Stop284971712777136486Stop185021698959136488Stop18512157727040933Stop425241580173131029Stop105251585075138398Stop115271588255137848Stop115321613042129746TCPActuated14561165476679554TCPActuated32575168560135028Stop496151634582173229Stop76211643326182294Stop26231632225178113Stop16261630531156254Stop66341630818157863TCPUncontrolled66381626390157575TCPUncontrolled66401621659158638TCPUncontrolled66561624422130278TCPUncontrolled156581624190137014Actuated15660162585562525TCPActuated38 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK101KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinate Control GridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber661162638664734TCPUncontrolled386651620176115802TCPActuated226691622651111128TCPUncontrolled256711622679105380TCPActuated25679162079383801TCPUncontrolled31680162057380462Stop316881636207100305Stop266941626549104570TCPUncontrolled25699162377757544Stop38704162101850533Stop387191657305184647Stop2722161371629315Actuated46732162437238487Actuated457381696484154224Yield97391696368153918TCPUncontrolled97411625313140278Yield137421625133140233Yield13744161111651877Stop387491636182147266Stop167511688042134925Stop187621673662154057Stop8766158564977090Stop30771164158628074Stop487721625784123366Stop237741622886123431Actuated237771669940178769Stop37821692561159943Stop97831693966158251Stop97841694421158162Actuated97851694826158142Actuated97991689238165516Stop98001691585168844Actuated98051703297150317Stop18813168767694473Stop34825160514767281Stop37836160918580374Stop318671586648129193Stop118741687685135025Stop18877161043931838TCPActuated46878161037831354TCPActuated46880161335435582Stop44882157714240574Stop428831624345137967Actuated15 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantK102KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinate Control GridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber8861624741139077Actuated138971624889128181Actuated158991624810128359Actuated159021626678143265Actuated13911160932187686Stop319281646287138921Stop16930162988562111Stop381 CoordinatesareintheNorthAmericanDatumof1983VermontStatePlaneZone APPENDIXLCommunityBoundaries VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantL 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1L. COMMUNITYBOUNDARIESBernardstonState:MADefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofBernardston.BrattleboroState:VTDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofBrattleboro.ChesterfieldState:NHDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofChesterfield.ColrainState:MADefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheportionofColraineastofGreenfieldRoadandRoute112north.Bothsidesoftheseroadsareincluded,aswellasalldead endroadsoffthem.DummerstonState:VTDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofDummerston.GillState:MADefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:ThenorthernportionofGillboundedonthesoutherlyedgebyBascomRoadfromtheFallRivertoHoeshopRoad;toWestGillRoad,thensouthtoFranklinRoad,easttoGreenHillRoadtoSouthCrossRoad,easttoMainRoad,northonMainRoadtoHillRoadtoRiverRoad,thensouthtoGristMillRoadtoitsendandthendueeasttotheConnecticutRiver.BothsidesofallEPZboundaryroadsareincluded,aswellasalldead endroadsoffthem.Greenfi eldState:MADefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:Fromthenorthernborder(Greenfield Leydenboundary),southonLeydenRoadtoBartonRoad,theneastonBartonRoadtoWestLogPlainGuilfordState:VTDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofGuilford.HalifaxState:VTDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofHalifax.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantL 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1HinsdaleState:NHDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofHinsdale.LeydenState:MADefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofLeyden.MarlboroState:VTDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofMarlboro.NorthfieldState:MADefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheportionofNorthfieldfromthestatelinesouthtoaboundarystartingattheConnecticutRiverandmovingdueeasttotheintersectionofCrossRoadwithPineMeadowRoad;eastonCrossRoadtoMainRoad(Route63),northtoSouthMountainBranchRoad,toSouthMountainRoad,thentoitsendatGulfRoad,thennorthonGulfRoadtoOrangeRoad,thenal ongOrangeRoadtothetownline.BothsidesofallEPZboundaryroadsareincluded,aswellasdead endroadsoffthem.RichmondState:NHDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofRichmond.SwanzeyState:NHDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheportionoftheTownofSwanzeywestofa10milearccenteredattheVYNPPfromtheRichmondtownlinepassingnorthofAnthonyCircle.VernonState:VTDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofVernon.WinchesterState:NHDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheentiretownofWinchester.WarwickState:MADefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:ThenorthwesternportionofWarwickfromthestatelinealongthewesterntownboundarytoNorthfieldRoad,theneasttoWhiteRoad,southandtheneastalongWhiteRoadbacktoNorthfieldRoad,easttoWinchesterRoad(Route78),northtoRobbinsRoad,theneasttoOldWinchesterRoad,andnorthtothestateline.BothsidesofallEPZboundaryroadsareincluded,aswellasdead endroadsoffthem.

APPENDIXMEvacuationSensitivityStudies VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantM 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIESThisappendixpresentstheresultsofaseriesofsensitivityanalyses.TheseanalysesaredesignedtoidentifythesensitivityoftheETEtochangesinsomebaseevacuationconditions.M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimesAsensitivitystudywasperformedtodeterminewhetherchangesintheestimatedtripgenerationtimehaveaneffectontheETEfortheentireEPZ.Specifically,ifthetailofthemobilizationdistributionweretruncated(i.e.,ifthosewhorespondedmostslowlytotheAdvisorytoEvacuate,couldbepersuadedtorespondmuchmorerapidly),howwouldtheETEbeaffected?ThecaseconsideredwasScenario1,Region3;asummer,midweek,midday,goodweatherevacuationoftheentireEPZ.TableM 1presentstheresultsofthisstudy.TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudyTripGenerationPeriodEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile2Hours30Minutes2:253:053Hours30Minutes2:253:454Hours30Minutes(Base)2:254:40AsdiscussedinSection7.3,trafficcongestionpersistswithintheEPZforabout3hours.Assuch,theETEforthe90 thpercentilearenotaffectedbythetripgenerationtime,butbythetimeneededtoclearthecongestionwithintheEPZ.However,the100 thpercentileETEaresensitivetotruncatingthetailofthemobilizationtimedistribution.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantM 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocateAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesinthepercentageofpeoplewhodecidetorelocatefromtheShadowRegion.ThecaseconsideredwasScenario1,Region3;asummer,midweek,midday,go odweatherevacuationfortheentireEPZ.ThemovementofpeopleintheShadowRegionhasthepotentialtoimpedevehiclesevacuatingfromanEvacuationRegionwithintheEPZ.RefertoSections3.2and7.1foradditionalinformationonpopulationwithintheshadowregion.TableM 2presentstheevacuationtimeestimatesforeachofthecasesconsidered.TheresultsshowthattheETEisnotimpactedbyreducingthebyreducingshadowevacuationdownto0%orincreasingitto60%.Note,thetelephonesurveyresultspresentedinAppendixFindicatethat16%ofhouseholdswouldelecttoevacuateifadvisedtoshelter.Thus,thebaseassumptionof20%noncompliancesuggestedinNUREG/CR 7002isvalid.TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudyPercentShadowEvacuationEvacuatingShadowVehiclesEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile002:254:40102,6482:254:4020(Base)5,2962:254:406015,8892:254:40 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantM 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulationAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesintheresidentpopulationwithinthestudyarea(EPZplusShadowRegion).Aspopulationinthestudyareachangesovertime,thetimerequiredtoevacuatethepublicmayincrease,decrease,orremainthesame.Sinc etheETEisrelatedtothedemandtocapacityratiopresentwithinthestudyarea,changesinpopulationwillcausethedemandsideoftheequationtochange.Thesensitivitystudywasconductedusingthefollowingplanningassumptions:1. Thepercentchangeinpopulationwithinthes tudyareawasincreasedtodetermineeffectsonETE.Changesinpopulationwereappliedtopermanentresidentsonly(asperfederalguidance),inboththeEPZareaandintheShadowRegion.2. Thetransportationinfrastructureremainedfixed;thepresenceofnewroadsorhighwaycapacityimprovementswerenotconsidered.3. Thestudywa sperformedforthe2 MileRegion(R01),the5 MileRegion(R02)andtheentireEPZ(R03).4. ThescenariowhichyieldedthehighestETEvalueswasselectedasthecasetobeconsideredinthissensitivitystudy(Scenario8).TableM 3presentstheresultsofthesensitivitystudy.SectionIVofAppendixEto10CFRPart50,andNUREG/CR 7002,Section5.4,requirelicenseestoprovideanupdatedETEanalysistotheNRCwh enapopulationincreasewithintheEPZcausesETEvalues(forthe2 MileRegion,5 MileRegionorentireEPZ)toincreas eby25percentor30minutes,whicheverisless.NotethatallofthebaseETEvaluesaregreaterthan2hours;25percentofthebaseETEisalwaysgreaterthan30minutes.Therefore,30minutesisthelesserandisthecriterionforupdating.Thosepercentpopulationchangewhichre sultinETEchangesgreaterthan30minutesarehighlightedinredbelow-a45%increaseEPZpopulation.EntergywillhavetoestimatetheEPZpopulationonanannualbasis.IftheEPZpopulationincreasesby45%ormore,anupdatedETEanalysiswillbeneeded.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantM 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChangeResidentPopulationBasePopulationChange15%30%45%41,01547,16753,32059,472RegionBasePopulationChange15%30%45%2MILE2:302:302:302:305MILE2:503:003:053:20FULLEPZ2:553:003:103:20RegionBasePopulationChange15%30%45%2MILE5:305:305:305:305MILE5:355:355:355:35FULLEPZ5:405:405:405:40 APPENDIXNETECriteriaChecklist VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1N. ETECRITERIACHECKLISTTableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklistNRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments1.0Introductiona. Theemergencyplanningzone(EPZ)andsurroundingareashouldbedescribed.YesSection1b. Amapshouldbeincludedthatidentifiesprimaryfeaturesofthesite,includingmajorroadways,significanttopographicalfeatures,boundariesofcounties,andpopulationcenterswithintheEPZ.YesFigure1 1c. AcomparisonofthecurrentandpreviousETEshouldbeprovidedandincludessimilarinformationasidentifiedinTable1 1,"ETEComparison,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTable1 31.1Approacha. Adiscussionoftheapproachandlevelofdetailobtainedduringthefieldsurveyoftheroadwaynetworkshouldbeprovided.YesSection1.3b. Sourcesofdemographicdataforschools,specialfacilities,largeemployers,andspecialeventsshouldbeidentified.YesSection2.1Section3c. Discussionshouldbepresentedonuseoftrafficcontrolplansintheanalysis.YesSection1.3,Section2.3,Section9,AppendixGd. Trafficsimulationmodelsusedfortheanalysesshouldbeidentifiedbynameandversion.YesSection1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Methodsusedtoaddressdatauncertaintiesshouldbedescribed.YesSections2and3Section5,AppendixF1.2Assumptionsa. TheplanningbasisfortheETEincludestheassumptionthattheevacuationshouldbeorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.YesSection2.3-Assumption1Section5.1b. AssumptionsconsistentwithTable1 2,"GeneralAssumptions,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludethebasistosupporttheiruse.YesSections2.2,2.31.3ScenarioDevelopmenta. ThetenscenariosinTable1 3,EvacuationScenarios,shouldbedevelopedfortheETEanalysis,orareasonshouldbeprovidedforuseofotherscenarios.YesTables2 1,6 21.3.1StagedEvacuationa. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedontheapproachusedindevelopmentofastagedevacuation.YesSections5.4.2,7.21.4EvacuationPlanningAreasa. AmapofEPZwithemergencyresponseplanningareas(ERPAs)shouldbeincluded.YesFigure6 1b. AtableshouldbeprovidedidentifyingtheERPAsconsideredforeachETEcalculationbydownwinddirectionineachsector.YesTable6 1,Table7 5 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. AtablesimilartoTable1 4,"EvacuationAreasforaStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludesthecompleteevacuationofthe2,5,and10mileareasandforthe2milearea/5milekeyholeevacuations.YesTable6 1,Table7 52.0DemandEstimationa. Demandestimationshouldbedevelopedforthefourpopulationgroups,includingpermanentresidentsoftheEPZ,transients,specialfacilities,andschools.YesPermanentresidents,employees,transients-Section3,AppendixESpecialfacilities,schools-Section8,AppendixE2.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. TheUSCensusshouldbethesourceofthepopulationvalues,oranothercrediblesourceshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.1b. PopulationvaluesshouldbeadjustedasnecessaryforgrowthtoreflectpopulationestimatestotheyearoftheETE.Yes2010usedasthebaseyearforanalysis.Nogrowthofpopulationnecessary.c. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1,"PopulationbySector,"ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforpermanentresidents.YesFigure3 22.1.1PermanentResidentswithVehiclesa. Thepersonspervehiclevalueshouldbebetween1and2orjustificationshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.Yes1.82personspervehicle-Table1 3b. Majoremployersshouldbelisted.YesSection3.42.1.2TransientPopulation VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Alistoffacilitieswhichattracttransientpopulationsshouldbeincluded,andpeakandaverageattendanceforthesefacilitiesshouldbelisted.Thesourceofinformationusedtodevelopattendancevaluesshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4,AppendixEb. Theaveragepopulationduringtheseasonshouldbeused,itemizedandtotaledforeachscenario.YesTables3 4,3 5andAppendixEitemizethetransientpopulationandemployeeestimates.TheseestimatesaremultipliedbythescenariospecificpercentagesprovidedinTable6 3toestimatetransientpopulationbyscenario.c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsassumedtobeatfacilitiesshouldbeestimated.YesSections3.3,3.4d. Thenumberofpeoplepervehicleshouldbeprovided.Numbersmayvarybyscenario,andifso,discussiononwhyvaluesvaryshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4e. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforthetransientpopulation.YesFigure3 6-transientsFigure3 8-employees2.2TransitDependentPermanentResidentsa. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberoftransitdependentresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.1,Table8 1b. Transportationresourcesneededtoevacuatethisgroupshouldbequantified.YesSection8.1,Tables8 5,8 10c. Thecounty/localevacuationplansfortransitdependentresidentsshouldbeusedintheanalysis.YesSections8.1,8.4 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberofpeoplewithdisabilitiesandthosewithaccessandfunctionalneedswhomayneedassistanceanddonotresideinspecialfacilitiesshouldbeprovided.Datafromlocal/countyregistrationprogramsshouldbeusedintheestimate,butshouldnotbetheonlysetofdata.YesSection8.5e. Capacitiesshouldbeprovidedforalltypesoftransportationresources.Busseatingcapacityof50%shouldbeusedorjustificationshouldbeprovidedforhighervalues.YesSection2.3-Assumption10Sections3.5,8.1,8.2,8.3f. Anestimateofthispopulationshouldbeprovidedandinformationshouldbeprovidedthattheexistingregistrationprogramswereusedindevelopingtheestimate.YesTable8 1-transitdependentsSection8.4-specialneedsg. Asummarytableofthetotalnumberofbuses,ambulances,orothertransportneededtosupportevacuationshouldbeprovidedandthequantificationofresourcesshouldbedetailedenoughtoassuredoublecountinghasnotoccurred.YesSection8.4Section8 3Table8 52.3SpecialFacilityResidentsa. Alistofspecialfacilities,includingthetypeoffacility,location,andaveragepopulationshouldbeprovided.Specialfacilitystaffshouldbeincludedinthetotalspecialfacilitypopulation.YesAppendixE,TableE 2b. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedonhowspecialfacilitydatawasobtained.YesSections8.2,8.3 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundindividualsshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.5,Table8 4d. Anestimateofthenumberandcapacityofvehiclesneededtosupporttheevacuationofthefacilityshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3Tables8 4,8 5e. Thelogisticsformobilizingspeciallytrainedstaff(e.g.,medicalsupportorsecuritysupportforprisons,jails,andothercorrectionalfacilities)shouldbediscussedwhenappropriate.YesSection3.5,Section8.42.4Schoolsa. Alistofschoolsincludingname,location,studentpopulation,andtransportationresourcesrequiredtosupporttheevacuation,shouldbeprovided.Thesourceofthisinformationshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 2,TableE 1Section8.2b. Transportationresourcesforelementaryandmiddleschoolsshouldbebasedon100%oftheschoolcapacity.YesTable8 2c. Theestimateofhighschoolstudentswhowillusetheirpersonalvehicletoevacuateshouldbeprovidedandabasisforthevaluesusedshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.2d. Theneedforreturntripsshouldbeidentifiedifnecessary.YesTherearesufficientresourcestoevacuateschoolsinasinglewave.However,Section8.3andFigure8 1discussthepotentialforamultiplewaveevacuation VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments2.5.1SpecialEventsa. Acompletelistofspecialeventsshouldbeprovidedandincludesinformationonthepopulation,estimatedduration,andseasonoftheevent.YesSection3.7b. ThespecialeventthatencompassesthepeaktransientpopulationshouldbeanalyzedintheETE.YesSection3.7c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsattendingtheeventshouldbeestimated.YesSection3.72.5.2ShadowEvacuationa. Ashadowevacuationof20percentshouldbeincludedforareasoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesfromtheNPP.YesSection2.2-Assumption5Figure2 1Section3.2b. Populationestimatesfortheshadowevacuationinthe10to15mileareabeyondtheEPZareprovidedbysector.YesSection3.2Figure3 4Table3 3c. Theloadingoftheshadowevacuationontotheroadwaynetworkshouldbeconsistentwiththetripgenerationtimegeneratedforthepermanentresidentpopulation.YesSection5-Table5 9(footnote)2.5.3BackgroundandPassThroughTraffic VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Thevolumeofbackgroundtrafficandpassthroughtrafficisbasedontheaveragedaytimetraffic.Valuesmaybereducedfornighttimescenarios.YesSection3.6Table3 6Section6Table6 3b. PassthroughtrafficisassumedtohavestoppedenteringtheEPZabouttwohoursaftertheinitialnotification.YesSection2.3-Assumption5Section3.62.6SummaryofDemandEstimationa. Asummarytableshouldbeprovidedthatidentifiesthetotalpopulationsandtotalvehiclesusedinanalysisforpermanentresidents,transients,transitdependentresidents,specialfacilities,schools,shadowpopulation,andpass throughdemandusedineachscenario.YesTables3 7,3 83.0RoadwayCapacitya. Themethod(s)usedtoassessroadwaycapacityshouldbediscussed.YesSection43.1RoadwayCharacteristicsa. AfieldsurveyofkeyrouteswithintheEPZhasbeenconducted.YesSection1.3b. Informationshouldbeprovideddescribingtheextentofthesurvey,andtypesofinformationgatheredandusedintheanalysis.YesSection1.3c. AtablesimilartothatinAppendixA,"RoadwayCharacteristics,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovided.YesAppendixK,TableK 1 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Calculationsforarepresentativeroadwaysegmentshouldbeprovided.YesSection4e. AlegiblemapoftheroadwaysystemthatidentifiesnodenumbersandsegmentsusedtodeveloptheETEshouldbeprovidedandshouldbesimilartoFigure3 1,"RoadwayNetworkIdentifyingNodesandSegments,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesAppendixK3.2CapacityAnalysisa. Theapproachusedtocalculatetheroadwaycapacityforthetransportationnetworkshouldbedescribedindetailandidentifiesfactorsthatshouldbeexpresslyusedinthemodeling.YesSection4b. ThecapacityanalysisidentifieswherefieldinformationshouldbeusedintheETEcalculation.YesSection1.3,Section43.3IntersectionControla. Alistofintersectionsshouldbeprovidedthatincludesthetotalnumberofintersectionsmodeledthatareunsignalized,signalized,ormannedbyresponsepersonnel.YesAppendixK,TableK 2b. Characteristicsforthe10highestvolumeintersectionswithintheEPZareprovidedincludingthelocation,signalcyclelength,andturnlanequeuecapacity.YesTableJ 1c. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonhowsignalcycletimeisusedinthecalculations.YesSection4.1,AppendixC.3.4AdverseWeather VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Theadverseweatherconditionshouldbeidentifiedandtheeffectsofadverseweatheronmobilizationtimeshouldbeconsidered.YesTable2 1,Section2.3-Assumption9Mobilizationtime-Table2 2,Section5.3(page5 10)b. ThespeedandcapacityreductionfactorsidentifiedinTable3 1,"WeatherCapacityFactors,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeusedorabasisshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.YesTable2 2-basedonHCM2010.ThefactorsprovidedinTable3 1ofNUREG/CR 7002arefromHCM2000.c. Thestudyidentifiesassumptionsforsnowremovalonstreetsanddriveways,whenapplicable.YesSection5.3AppendixF-SectionF.3.34.0DevelopmentofEvacuationTimes4.1TripGenerationTimea. Theprocessusedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesshouldbeidentified.YesSection5b. Whentelephonesurveysareused,thescopeofthesurvey,areaofsurvey,numberofparticipants,andstatisticalrelevanceshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixFc. Dataobtainedfromtelephonesurveysshouldbesummarized.YesAppendixFd. Thetripgenerationtimeforeachpopulationgroupshouldbedevelopedfromsitespecificinformation.YesSection5,AppendixF4.1.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulation VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Permanentresidentsareassumedtoevacuatefromtheirhomesbutarenotassumedtobeathomeatalltimes.Tripgenerationtimeincludestheassumptionthatapercentageofresidentswillneedtoreturnhomepriortoevacuating.YesSection5discussestripgenerationforhouseholdswithandwithoutreturningcommuters.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofhouseholdswithreturningcommutersandthepercentageofhouseholdseitherwithoutreturningcommutersorwithnocommuters.AppendixFpresentsthepercenthouseholdswhowillawaitthereturnofcommuters.b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonthetimeandmethodusedtonotifytransients.Thetripgenerationtimediscussesanydifficultiesnotifyingpersonsinhardtoreachareassuchasonlakesorincampgrounds.YesSection5c. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsfortransientspotentiallyreturningtohotelspriortoevacuating.YesSection5,Figure5 1d. Effectofpublictransportationresourcesusedduringspecialeventswherealargenumberoftransientsshouldbeexpectedshouldbeconsidered.YesSection3.7e. Thetripgenerationtimeforthetransientpopulationshouldbeintegratedandloadedontothetransportationnetworkwiththegeneralpublic.YesSection5,Table5 94.1.2TransitDependentResidents VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Ifavailable,existingplansandbusroutesshouldbeusedintheETEanalysis.IfnewplansshouldbedevelopedwiththeETE,theyhavebeenagreeduponbytheresponsibleauthorities.YesSection8.4page8 8Figures8 2through8 4,Table8 10.b. Discussionshouldbeincludedonthemeansofevacuatingambulatoryandnonambulatoryresidents.YesSection8.4,8.5c. Thenumber,location,andavailabilityofbuses,andotherresourcesneededtosupportthedemandestimationshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4d. Logisticaldetails,suchasthetimetoobtainbuses,briefdrivers,andinitiatethebusrouteshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,Figure8 1Section8 5e. Discussionshouldidentifythetimeestimatedfortransitdependentresidentstoprepareandtraveltoabuspickuppoint,anddescribestheexpectedmeansoftraveltothepickuppoint.YesSection8.4,8.5f. Thenumberofbusstopsandtimeneededtoloadpassengersshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.4,8.5g. Amapofbusroutesshouldbeincluded.YesFigure8 2through8 4h. Thetripgenerationtimefornonambulatorypersonsincludesthetimetomobilizeambulancesorspecialvehicles,timetodrivetothehomeofresidents,loadingtime,andtimetodriveoutoftheEPZshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,8 5 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsi. Informationshouldbeprovidedtosupportsanalysisofreturntrips,ifnecessary.YesSections8.3,8.4Figure8 1Tables8 11through8 134.1.3SpecialFacilitiesa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3,8 4,Table8 14b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSections8.4c. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundindividualsshouldbeprovided,andthelogisticsofevacuatingtheseresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesSections8.4,Table8 4d. TimeforloadingofresidentsshouldbeprovidedYesSection8.4e. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsshouldbeneeded.YesSection8.4,Table8 4f. Ifreturntripsshouldbeneeded,thedestinationofvehiclesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4g. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherspecialfacilityresidentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesSection8.4h. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesSection8.4.Tables8 14through8 16.4.1.4Schools VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSchoolbusroutesarepresentedinTable8 6.SchoolbusspeedsarepresentedinTables8 7through8 9.OutboundspeedsaredefinedastheminimumoftheevacuationroutespeedandtheStateschoolbusspeedlimit.c. Timeforloadingofstudentsshouldbeprovided.YesTables8 7through8 9,DiscussioninSection8.4d. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsareneeded.YesSection8.4e. Ifreturntripsareneeded,thedestinationofschoolbusesshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 3Returntripsarenotneededf. Ifused,receptioncentersshouldbeidentified.Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherstudentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesSection8Introduction.Table8 3.Studentsareevacuatedtohostschoolswheretheywillbepickedupbyparentsorguardians.g. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesReturntripsarenotneeded.Tables8 7through8 9providetimeneededtoarriveatthehostschool,whichcouldbeusedtocomputeasecondwaveevacuationifnecessary VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.2ETEModelinga. GeneralinformationaboutthemodelshouldbeprovidedanddemonstratesitsuseinETEstudies.YesDYNEVII(Ver.4.0.14.0).Section1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC.b. IfatrafficsimulationmodelisnotusedtoconducttheETEcalculation,sufficientdetailshouldbeprovidedtovalidatetheanalyticalapproachused.Allcriteriaelementsshouldhavebeenmet,asappropriate.NoNotapplicableasatrafficsimulationmodelwasused.4.2.1TrafficSimulationModelInputa. Trafficsimulationmodelassumptionsandarepresentativesetofmodelinputsshouldbeprovided.YesAppendicesBandCdescribethesimulationmodelassumptionsandalgorithmsTableJ 2b. Aglossaryoftermsshouldbeprovidedforthekeyperformancemeasuresandparametersusedintheanalysis.YesAppendixATablesC 1,C 24.2.2TrafficSimulationModelOutputa. AdiscussionregardingwhetherthetrafficsimulationmodelusedmustbeinequilibrationpriortocalculatingtheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixB VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Theminimumfollowingmodeloutputsshouldbeprovidedtosupportreview:1. TotalvolumeandpercentbyhourateachEPZexitnode.2. Networkwideaveragetraveltime.3. Longestqueuelengthforthe10intersectionswiththehighesttrafficvolume.4. Totalvehiclesexitingthenetwork.5. AplotthatprovidesboththemobilizationcurveandevacuationcurveidentifyingthecumulativepercentageofevacueeswhohavemobilizedandexitedtheEPZ.6. AveragespeedforeachmajorevacuationroutethatexitstheEPZ.Yes1. TableJ 5.2. TableJ 3.3. TableJ 1.4. TableJ 3.5. FiguresJ 1throughJ 14(oneplotforeachscenarioconsidered

).6. TableJ 4.NetworkwideaveragespeedalsoprovidedinTableJ 3.c. Colorcodedroadwaymapsshouldbeprovidedforvarioustimes(i.e.,at2,4,6hrs.,etc.)duringafullEPZevacuationscenario,identifyingareaswherelongqueuesexistincludinglevelofservice(LOS)"E"andLOS"F"conditions,iftheyoccur.YesFigures7 3through7 64.3EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheGeneralPublica. TheETEshouldincludethetimetoevacuate90%and100%ofthetotalpermanentresidentandtransientpopulationYesTables7 1,7 2 VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. TheETEfor100%ofthegeneralpublicshouldincludeallmembersofthegeneralpublic.Anyreductionsortruncateddatashouldbeexplained.YesSection5.4-truncatingsurveydatatoeliminatestatisticaloutliersTable7 2-100 thpercentileETEforgeneralpublicc. Tablesshouldbeprovidedforthe90and100percentETEssimilartoTable4 3,"ETEsforStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTables7 3,7 4d. ETEsshouldbeprovidedforthe100percentevacuationofspecialfacilities,transitdependent,andschoolpopulations.YesSection8.4Tables8 7through8 9Tables8 11through8 175.0OtherConsiderations5.1DevelopmentofTrafficControlPlansa. Informationthatresponsibleauthoritieshaveapprovedthetrafficcontrolplanusedintheanalysisshouldbeprovided.YesSection9,AppendixGb. AdiscussionofadjustmentsoradditionstothetrafficcontrolplanthataffecttheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixG5.2EnhancementsinEvacuationTimea. Theresultsofassessmentsforimprovementofevacuationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixMb. Astatementordiscussionregardingpresentationofenhancementstolocalauthoritiesshouldbeprovided.YesResultsoftheETEstudywereformallypresentedtolocalauthoritiesatthefinalprojectmeeting.Recommendedenhancementswerediscussed.

VermontYankeeNuclearPowerPlantN 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments5.3StateandLocalReviewa. Alistofagenciescontactedandtheextentofinteractionwiththeseagenciesshouldbediscussed.YesTable1 1b. InformationshouldbeprovidedonanyunresolvedissuesthatmayaffecttheETE.YesNounresolvedissuesafterreviewwiththeoffsiteagencies5.4ReviewsandUpdatesa. AdiscussionofwhenanupdatedETEanalysisisrequiredtobeperformedandsubmittedtotheNRC.YesAppendixM,SectionM.35.5ReceptionCentersandCongregateCareCentera. Amapofcongregatecarecentersandreceptioncentersshouldbeprovided.YesFigure10 1b. Ifreturntripsarerequired,assumptionsusedtoestimatereturntimesforbusesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4discussesamulti waveevacuationprocedure.Figure8 1c. Itshouldbeclearlystatedifitisassumedthatpassengersareleftatthereceptioncenterandaretakenbyseparatebusestothecongregatecarecenter.YesSection2.3-Assumption7hSection10 TechnicalReviewer_________________

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