Text

Kld TR-517, Rev 1, Arkansas Nuclear One Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report
	ML13023A048
Person / Time
Site:	Arkansas Nuclear
Issue date:	12/18/2012
From:	; KLD Engineering, PC
To:	; NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Entergy Operations
Shared Package
ML130230023	List: CNRO-2012-00013, Kld TR-502, Rev. 1, Waterford 3 Steam Electric Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report; ML13023A006; ML13023A023; ML13023A024; ML13023A025; ML13023A028; ML13023A031; ML13023A035; ML13023A048; ML13023A070; ML13023A072; ML13023A073;
References
	CNRO-2012-00013, ENOC-2012-00038 KLD TR-517, Rev 1
	Download: ML13023A048 (421)
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December2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-517 ArkansasNuclearOneDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforEntergy,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com ArkansasNuclearOneiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 21.2TheArkansasNuclearOnePowerPlantLocation......................................................................1 31.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 51.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy..............................................................................................1 92STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 73.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 103.4Employees...............................................................................................................................

.3 143.5MedicalFacilities......................................................................................................................3 183.6TotalDemandinAddi tiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 183.7SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 183.8SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 204ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtotheArkansasNuclearOneStudyArea...............................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Freeways............................................................................................................................4 74.3.4Intersections......................................................................................................................4 84.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 85ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background...............................................................................................................................

.5 15.2FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 115.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 125.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 155.4.3TripGenerationforWaterways.......................................................................................5 166DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 17.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................7 17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 17.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 2 ArkansasNuclearOneiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 37.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 47.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 67.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 68TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentandHomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulation...............................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 28.3MedicalFacilityPopulation........................................................................................................8 38.4CorrectionalFacilityPopulation.................................................................................................8 38.5EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentandHomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulation..............................................................................................................................................8 38.6EvacuationTimeEstimatesforSchools.....................................................................................8 49TRAFF ICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUATIONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 1ListofAppendicesA.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 13C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 13C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 13C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C 16D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.SPECIALFACILITYDATA......................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.3SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F 3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F 3F.3.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F 8F.3.3TimeDistributionResults.....................................................................................................F 10F.4Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 12G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1G.2Roadblocks...............................................................................................................................

.G 1 ArkansasNuclearOneiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1HEVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.ZONEBOUNDARIES............................................................................................................................L 1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofCha ngesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentionallyskipped ArkansasNuclearOneivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofFiguresFigure1 1.ArkansasNuclearOneLocation..............................................................................................1 4Figure1 2.ANOLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................1 7Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.ArkansasNuclearOneEPZ......................................................................................................3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 5Figure3 3.PermanentRe sidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 6Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 8Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector.....................................................................................................3 9Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 12Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 13Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 16Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 17Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams.........................................................................................................4 10Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 10Figure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution......................................................5 13Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 18Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUn stagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion....................................................................................................................................5 20Figure6 1.ANOEPZZones........................................................................................................................6 5Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................7 18Figure7 2.ANOShadowRegion.............................................................................................................7 19Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 20Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1Hour,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate........................7 21Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat2Hours,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................7 22Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 23Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat5HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 24Figure7 8.CongestionPa tternsat5Hours,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................7 25Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03......................................................7 26Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 11.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR0 3....................................................7 28Figure7 15.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................7 29Figure7 16.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................7 29Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................7 30Figure7 18.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................7 30Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................7 31Figure7 20.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................7 31Figure7 21.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03..................................................7 32Figure7 22.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario14forRegionR03..................................................7 32Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations........................................................................8 6Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationandSchoolReceptionCenters............................................................10 2Figure10 2.EvacuationRouteMap........................................................................................................10 3 ArkansasNuclearOnevKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 5FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 7FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 15FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ............................................................................................................E 9FigureE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 10FigureE 3.Majo rEmployerswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 11FigureE 4.CampgroundswithintheEPZ................................................................................................E 12FigureE 5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ........................................................................................E 13FigureE 6.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 14FigureE 7.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZRussellville......................................................................E 15FigureE 8.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ...................................................................................E 16FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 4FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 4FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F 6FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 7FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 8FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacua tion...............................................................................F 9FigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets...........................................................................................F 9FigureF 11.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..............................................................F 11FigureF 12.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F 11FigureF 13.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 12FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsandRoadblocksfortheANOSit e.......................................................G 2FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 4FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 6.RegionR06.............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 7.RegionR07...........................................................................................................................H 10FigureH 8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H 12FigureH 10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H 13FigureH 11.RegionR11.........................................................................................................................H 14FigureH 12.RegionR12.........................................................................................................................H 15FigureH 13.RegionR13.........................................................................................................................H 16FigureH 14.RegionR14.........................................................................................................................H 17FigureH 15.RegionR15.........................................................................................................................H 18FigureH 16.RegionR16.........................................................................................................................H 19FigureH 17.RegionR17.........................................................................................................................H 20FigureH 18.RegionR18.........................................................................................................................H 21FigureH 19.RegionR19.........................................................................................................................H 22FigureH 20.RegionR20.........................................................................................................................H 23 ArkansasNuclearOneviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 21.RegionR21.........................................................................................................................H 24FigureH 22.RegionR22.........................................................................................................................H 25FigureH 23.RegionR23.........................................................................................................................H 26FigureH 24.RegionR24.........................................................................................................................H 27FigureH 25.RegionR25.........................................................................................................................H 28FigureH 26.RegionR26.........................................................................................................................H 29FigureH 27.RegionR27.........................................................................................................................H 30FigureH 28.RegionR28.........................................................................................................................H 31FigureH 29.RegionR29.........................................................................................................................H 32FigureH 30.RegionR30.........................................................................................................................H 33FigureH 31.RegionR31.........................................................................................................................H 34FigureH 32.RegionR32.........................................................................................................................H 35FigureH 33.RegionR33.........................................................................................................................H 36FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 7FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 7FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J 8FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J 8FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)................................................................................................................................................J 9FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)................J 9FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J 10FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)..................................J 10FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)..............J 11FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,We ekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)...........................J 11FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11).............................J 12FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)...............................................................................................................................

.............J 12FigureJ 13.ETEandTripGeneration:Su mmer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)............................................................................................................................................J 13FigureJ 14.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)............................................................................................................................................J 13FigureK 1.ANOLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................K 2FigureK 2.Li nk NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K 3FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2.....................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Li nk NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K 9FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K 10FigureK 10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K 11FigureK 11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K 12FigureK 12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K 13FigureK 13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K 14FigureK 14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K 15FigureK 15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K 16FigureK 16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K 17 ArkansasNuclearOneviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K 18FigureK 18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K 19FigureK 19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K 20FigureK 20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K 21FigureK 21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K 22FigureK 22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K 23FigureK 23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K 24FigureK 24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K 25FigureK 25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K 26FigureK 26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25...............................................................................K 27FigureK 27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26...............................................................................K 28FigureK 28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27...............................................................................K 29FigureK 29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28...............................................................................K 30FigureK 30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29...............................................................................K 31FigureK 31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30...............................................................................K 32FigureK 32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31...............................................................................K 33FigureK 33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32...............................................................................K 34FigureK 34.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33...............................................................................K 35FigureK 35.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34...............................................................................K 36FigureK 36.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35...............................................................................K 37FigureK 37.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36...............................................................................K 38FigureK 38.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37...............................................................................K 39FigureK 39.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38...............................................................................K 40FigureK 40.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39...............................................................................K 41FigureK 41.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40...............................................................................K 42FigureK 42.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid41...............................................................................K 43FigureK 43.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid42...............................................................................K 44FigureK 44.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid43...............................................................................K 45FigureK 45.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid44...............................................................................K 46FigureK 46.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid45...............................................................................K 47FigureK 47.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid46...............................................................................K 48FigureK 48.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid47...............................................................................K 49FigureK 49.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid48...............................................................................K 50 ArkansasNuclearOneviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 1Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 5Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons............................................................................................................1 9Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 6Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyZone...........................................................3 4Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 7Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 11Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 15Table3 6.Ar kansasNuclearOneEPZExternalTraffic............................................................................3 19Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 21Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 22Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.MappingDistri butionstoEvents............................................................................................5 11Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 11Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuation.....................5 17Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.........................5 19Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRe gions...........................................................................................6 3Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 6Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 7Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario..................................................................................................6 8Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.........................7 10Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 12Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 14Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 15Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 16Table8 1.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates.....................................................................................8 7Table8 2.SchoolReceptionCenters........................................................................................................8 8Table8 3.MedicalFacilityCensus............................................................................................................8 9Table8 4.SummaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 10Table8 5.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 11Table8 6.SchoolEvacuationTim eEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................8 12Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-Rain..............................................................................8 13Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-Ice................................................................................8 14TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 8TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E 2TableE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 4 ArkansasNuclearOneixKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.CampgroundswithintheEPZ...................................................................................................E 5TableE 5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 6TableE 6.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 7TableE 7.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ.......................................................................................E 8TableF 1.ArkansasNuclearOneTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan.........................................................F 2TableH 1.PercentofZonePopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion.......................................................H 2TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 4TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J 5TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)............................................................................................................................J 5TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J 6TableK 1.Ev acuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 51TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled........................................K 108TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1

ArkansasNuclearOneES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheArkansasNuclearOne(ANO)locatedinPopeCounty,Arkansas.ETEarepartoftherequiredplanningbasisandprovideEntergyandStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProt ectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMA REP 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. 10CFR50,AppendixE-"EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities"OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinOctober,2011andextendedoveraperiodof13months.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingswithEntergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010.StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GI S)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheArkansasNuclearOne,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetwork. SynthesizedthisinformationtocreateananalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweenth eEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey. Datacollectionforms(providedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting)werereturnedwithdatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andspecialfacilitiesinPope,Johnson,andYellCounties.Telephonecallstospecificfacilitiessupplementedthedataprovided.

ArkansasNuclearOneES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Thetrafficdemandandtrip generationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto15zones.Thesezonesarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof33EvacuationRegions. Thetime varyingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain,Ice).OnespecialeventscenarioinvolvingafootballgameatArkansasTechUniversitywasconsidered.OneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonInterstate40eastboundforthedurationofth eevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5mileswereevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: ArapidlyescalatingaccidentatArkansasNuclearOneth atquicklyassumesthestatusofGeneralEmergencysuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisvirtuallycoincidentwiththesirenalert,andnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntiltheastatedpercentag eofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncent erslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtonotpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbypolicecruisersofot heremergencyworkervehicles.SeparateETEarecalculatedforthetransit dependentevacueesandhomeboundspecialneedspopulation. AllmedicalandcorrectionalfacilitiesintheEPZshelter inplace.ETEarenotprovidedforthesefacilities.ComputationofETEAtotalof462ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe33Evacuation ArkansasNuclearOneES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe14EvacuationScenarios(33x14=462).SeparateETEarecalculatedfortransit dependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofETEassumesthat20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidetheimpactedregion,willelectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.TheimpedancethatcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter in place.Once90%ofthe2 mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillev acuate(non compliance)eventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter in place.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Eachlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficen gineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuat ionmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),thensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofthepopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.Thesestatisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.

ArkansasNuclearOneES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TrafficManagementThisstudyappliestheexistingcomprehensivetrafficmanagementplansprovidedbyPope,Johnson,LoganandYellCounties.AsdiscussedinSection9andAppendixG,noadditionaltrafficcontrolpointsorroadblocksarerecommendedasaresultofthisstudy.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformoffiguresandtablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6 1displaysamapoftheANOEPZshowingthelayoutofthe15zonesthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3 1presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachzonebasedonthe2010Censusdata. Table6 1definesea chofthe33EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofzones. Table6 2liststheEvacuationScenarios. Tables7 1and7 2arecompilationsofETE.The sedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherregionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Tables7 3and7 4presentsETEforthe2 milere gionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table8 6presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. FigureH 8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.MapsofallregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor462uniquecases-acombinationof33uniqueEvacuationRegionsand14uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheseETErangefrom1:55(hr:min)to5:05atthe90 thpercentile. InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile.ThisistheresultofthecongestionwithintheEPZ.Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,rel ativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.SeeSection7.4andFigures7 9through7 22. InspectionofTable7 3andTable7 4indicatesthatastagedevacuationprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaysthe ArkansasNuclearOneES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1evacuationofthosebeyond2miles(compareRegionsR02andR04throughR12withRegionsR24throughR33,respectively,inTables7 1and7 2).Stagedevacuationisnotrecommendedforthissite.SeeSection7.6foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios9(winter,weekend,midday)and13(winter,weekend ,midday)inTables7 1and7 2indicatesthatthespecialevent-footballgameatArkansasTechUniversity-doesnotmateriallyaffecttheETE.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelaneeastboundonI 40fromMissionRoad(E xit78)toExit101(CountyHwy34/FishlakeRd)-hasamaterialimpactonthe90 thand100 thpercentileETEs.ThoseregionswhereinallofRussellville(R03andR19throughR23)evacuatesexperienceincreasesinETEofuptoonehourandfifteenminutes(90 thpercentile)and1hourand35minutes(100 thpercentile).SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. RussellvilleandDardanellearethemostcongestedareasduringanevacuation.CongestionwithinDardanelleclearsat2hoursand15minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate.ThelastlocationintheEPZtoexhibittrafficcongestionisI 40eastboundleavingRussellvilleat4hoursand55minutesaf tertheadvisorytoevacuate.SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 8. SeparateETEwerecomputedforschoolchildren,transit dependentpersons,andhomeboundspecialneedspersons.TheaverageETEforthesepopulationgroupsarelessthanthegeneralpopulationETEforevacuationoftheentireEPZatthe90 thpercentile.SeeSection8. Table8 4indicatesthattherearesufficienttransportationresourcesavailableintheEPZtoevacuateallschoolchildren,transit dependentpersons,andhomeboundspecialneedspersonsinasinglewave. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileisinsensitivetochangesinthebasetripgenerationtimeof31/2hoursduetothetrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisrelativelyinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion(triplingtheshadowevacuationpercentageonlyincreases90 thpercentileETEby5minutes).SeeTableM 2. Populationchangesof+19%ormoreor 20%ormoreresultinETEchanges(30minutesormore)whichmeettheNRCcriteriaforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.SeeSectionM.3.

ArkansasNuclearOneES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.ANOEPZZones ArkansasNuclearOneES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationZone2000Population2010PopulationG1,2781,327H12,86114,653I10,61812,262J4,4265,445K1,7982,185L4,0744,484M763936N492579O146141P1,9312,022Q398464R502431S1,7392,133T4,2284,422U1,2771,387TOTAL46,53152,871EPZPopulationGrowth:13.63%

ArkansasNuclearOneES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR012 MileRingXR025 MileRingXXXXXXXR03FullEPZXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR04NXXR05NNE,NE,ENEXXXR06E,ESEXXXXR07SE,SSEXXXXR08SXXXR09SSW,SWXXR10WSW,WXXXR11WNWXXXXR12NW,NNWXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR13NXXXXR14NNE,NE,ENEXXXXXR15E,ESEXXXXXXR16SE,SSE,SXXXXXXR17SSWXXXXR18SWXXXXXR19WSWXXXXXXXR20WXXXXXXR21WNWXXXXXXR22NWXXXXXXXR23NNWXXXXXX

ArkansasNuclearOneES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR245 MileRingXXXXXXXR25NXXR26NNE,NE,ENEXXXR27E,ESEXXXXR28SE,SSEXXXXR29SXXXR30SSW,SWXXR31WSW,WXXXR32WNWXXXXR33NW,NNWXXXZONE(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateZONE(s)Shelter in PlaceZONE(s)Evacuate ArkansasNuclearOneES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenariosSeason1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13WinterWeekendMiddayGoodFootballgameatArkansasTechUniversity14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpactLaneClosureonI 40EB*1Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatsummerschoolisinsession.*AsinglelaneonI 40willbeclosedintheeastbounddirectionfromExit78(MissionRd)toCountyHwy34/FishlakeRd(Exit101).

ArkansasNuclearOneES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR012:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R021:552:001:501:551:452:202:302:451:551:552:051:451:552:10R033:103:252:352:452:303:554:204:452:302:402:552:252:354:152 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R052:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R062:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R072:052:052:052:051:552:052:052:052:052:052:101:552:052:05R082:052:052:052:051:552:052:052:102:052:052:101:552:052:05R092:002:052:052:051:552:002:052:052:052:052:051:552:052:00R101:552:051:501:551:452:202:352:401:501:552:051:451:502:10R111:552:051:501:551:452:202:352:351:501:552:051:451:502:10R122:002:001:501:551:452:202:302:451:501:552:001:501:502:102 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR132:052:052:002:051:552:052:052:102:002:052:101:552:002:05R142:002:052:002:051:552:052:052:052:002:052:101:552:002:00R152:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R162:052:052:002:051:552:052:052:102:052:052:101:552:052:05R172:002:002:002:001:502:002:052:102:002:002:051:502:002:00R182:052:102:052:102:052:052:102:202:052:102:202:052:052:15R193:253:402:402:552:354:054:254:552:352:453:052:302:404:35R203:153:352:402:552:304:054:255:052:352:503:052:302:454:30R213:203:352:402:552:354:054:254:552:352:503:102:302:404:30R223:153:352:402:452:304:004:254:552:352:453:052:252:404:25R233:003:252:252:352:203:454:104:352:252:352:452:202:304:05 ArkansasNuclearOneES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR242:452:452:502:502:502:402:452:502:502:502:552:552:502:45R252:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:10R262:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:15R272:102:152:152:152:152:102:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:10R282:202:202:202:202:252:202:202:202:202:202:202:252:202:20R292:202:202:202:202:252:202:202:202:202:202:252:252:202:20R302:152:152:152:202:202:152:152:202:152:202:202:202:152:15R312:502:553:003:003:002:502:553:003:003:003:103:003:002:55R322:452:452:502:502:552:402:502:552:502:553:002:552:502:50R332:452:452:502:502:552:452:503:052:502:553:052:552:502:50 ArkansasNuclearOneES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR013:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R023:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R034:204:303:403:403:405:005:306:103:403:404:003:403:405:502 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR043:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R053:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R063:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R073:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R083:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R093:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R103:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R113:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R123:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:352 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR133:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R143:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R153:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R163:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R173:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R183:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R194:204:303:403:403:405:005:256:103:403:404:003:403:405:50R204:154:303:403:403:405:005:256:103:403:403:553:403:405:50R214:154:303:403:403:405:005:306:053:403:404:003:403:405:50R224:154:303:403:403:405:005:306:053:403:404:003:403:405:45R234:004:253:403:403:404:455:155:503:403:404:003:403:405:35 ArkansasNuclearOneES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR243:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:453:353:353:353:353:353:35R253:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R263:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R273:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R283:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R293:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R303:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R313:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:503:353:353:353:353:353:35R323:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:453:353:353:353:353:353:35R333:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:503:353:353:453:353:353:35 ArkansasNuclearOneES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR012:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R022:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R042:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R052:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R062:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R072:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R082:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R092:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R102:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R112:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R122:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR242:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R252:052:052:052:102:052:052:052:102:052:102:102:052:052:05R262:052:052:052:102:052:052:052:102:052:102:102:052:052:05R272:052:052:052:102:052:052:052:102:052:102:102:052:052:05R282:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R292:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R302:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R312:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R322:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R332:052:052:052:102:052:052:052:102:052:102:102:052:052:05 ArkansasNuclearOneES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR013:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R023:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R043:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R053:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R063:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R073:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R083:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R093:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R103:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R113:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R123:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR243:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R253:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R263:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R273:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R283:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R293:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R313:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R323:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R333:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30 ArkansasNuclearOneES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)DistancetoEPZBoundary(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)POPECOUNTY,ARLondonElementary25159.266.990:50ArkansasTechUniversity30155.92.31483:20CommunityChristianSchool15157.07.81491:25DwightElementary10155.52.61272:35RussellvilleJuniorHighSchool10156.32.41573:05RussellvilleMiddleSchool10155.72.61332:40RussellvilleHighSchool10155.34.3741:40SequoyahElementary10156.62.41683:15St.John'sCatholicSchool30155.72.01373:35UpperElementary5thGrade10155.72.61332:40CrawfordElementary20154.511.2241:00OaklandHeightsElementary10155.83.01162:25CenterValleyElementary25156.726.9150:55DoverHighSchool30151.339.930:50DoverMiddleSchool30151.339.930:50DoverElementarySchool30151.142.920:50YELLCOUNTY,ARDardanelleElementarySchool15158.452.2100:40DardanelleHighSchool15158.452.2100:40DardanelleMiddleSchool15158.452.2100:40DardanellePrimarySchool15158.747.7110:45MaximumforEPZ:3:35AverageforEPZ:1:45 ArkansasNuclearOneES 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 ArkansasNuclearOne1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheArkansasNuclearOne(ANO)plant,locatedinPopeCounty,Arkansas.ETEprovideStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionEntergyemergencyplanningpersonnelMeetingtodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagencies.ObtaintheANOEmergencyPlan,theArkansasRadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessPlanandpreviousANOETEReport.PopeCountyOfficeofEmergencyManagement(OEM)ObtainPopeCountyRadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessPlanforANO,school,medical,lodging,transientattractiondata,transportationresourcesandthenumberofhomeboundspecialneedspersons.JohnsonCountyOEMObtainJohnsonCountyRadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessPlanforANO,transientattractiondataandtransportationresources.LoganCountyOEMObtainLoganCountyRadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessPlanforANO,andtransportationresources.YellCountyOEMObtainYellCountyRadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessPlanforANO,school,medical,correctionalfacility,majoremployer,transientattractiondata,andtransportationresources.StateofArkansasGISdata ArkansasNuclearOne1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromEntergy.b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromPope,Johnson,Logan,YellandConwayCountyOEMs,theStateofArkansas,localelect edofficialsandlocallawenforcementtoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatrafficconditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andShadowRegion.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromthe2010census.e. ConductedarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.f. GathereddatawiththeassistanceofthecountyOEMsforschools,specialfacilities,majoremployers,transportationproviders,andotherimportantinformationneededfortheETE.2. EstimateddistributionsofTripGenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgrou ps(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelephonesurvey.3. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherco nditions.4. Reviewedtheexistingtrafficmanagementplantobeimplementedbylocalandstatepoliceintheeventofanincidentattheplant.TrafficcontrolisappliedatspecifiedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. UsedexistingzonestodefineEvacuationRegi ons.TheEPZispartitionedinto15zonesalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguouszonesforwhichETEarecalculated.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesfortransit dependentpersonsathomeandforhomeboundspecialneedspersons.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystem.a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagenci es,Entergyandfromthetelephonesurvey.

ArkansasNuclearOne1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM 1)tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelink noderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.e. Specifiedselectedcand idatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationoftheArkansasNuclearOne.8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltodetermineoptimalevacuationroutingandcomputeETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforallschoolsandthetransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.1.2 TheArkansasNuclearOnePowerPlantLocationANOislocatedalongthenorthernshoreofLakeDardanelleinPopeCounty,Arkansas.Thesiteisapproximately65milesnorthwestofLittleRock,AR.TheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)consistsofpartsofPope,Johnson,Logan,andYellcountiesinArkansas.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingANO.ThismapshowstheplantlocationrelativetoLittleRockandthepopulationcentersandmajorroadsinthearea.1HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.

ArkansasNuclearOne1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.ArkansasNuclearOneLocation ArkansasNuclearOne1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewaysections,avalueof2250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe ArkansasNuclearOne1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereob served,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpre timed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakentogatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateel ementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).

ArkansasNuclearOne1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.ANOLink NodeAnalysisNetwork ArkansasNuclearOne1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DT A),modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbased,anddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuati onTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationoftheArkansasNuclearOne.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthataredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthesecountermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.

ArkansasNuclearOne1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththe2002study.TheETEforbothstudiesformidweek,middayiscomparable-5hoursversus5hoursand48minutes.TheETEforweekend,middayissignificantlydifferent-3hoursand40minutesversus7hoursand30minutes.Th emajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluescanbesummarizedasfollows: Thehighwayrepresentationisfarmoredetailed(especiallyinRussellville)providingmoreroutingchoicesforevacuees,whichcouldreduceETE. Dynamicevacuationmodelingusedwhichadj ustsroutingtoavoidtrafficcongestiontotheextentfeasible(similartoamodernGPS)andcouldreduceETE. Transientpopulationissignificantlyless(56%)inthisstudywhichmostlikelyexplainsthesignificantdifferencesinweekendETE.Thisstudyeliminateddoublecountingofpermanentresidentswhomayberecreat ingintheEPZ. Differentevacuationmodelsused.The2010HCMisthebasisforDYNEVII,whilethe1965HCMisthebasisforNetVac2.BaselinecapacityestimateshavecontinuouslyincreasedfromoneversiontothenextoftheHCM.HighercapacityestimatesresultinlowerETE.Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasis2000USCensusData;Population=46,600ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused.Population=52,871ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancyVehicleoccupancy2.5personspervehicle.2.17persons/household,1.30evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:1.67persons/vehicle.EmployeePopulationEmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedbylocalemployersinEPZ.1.0employeespervehiclewasusedforallmajoremployers.Employeepopulationandautos:Day=2,850Night=655Weekend=505*Note:Onlythoseemployerswithatleast100daytimeemployeeswereconsideredintheevacuatio nestimates.Employeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployers(50ormoretotalemployees)intheYellCountyportionofEPZ.EmployeeestimatescalculatedusingtheU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsinteractivewebsiteforthePopeCountyportionoftheEPZ.1.04employeespervehiclebasedontelephon esurveyresults.Employees=8,637 ArkansasNuclearOne1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTransitDependentPopulationNonumberprovidedandnospecificmodelingprocedureswereusedforthispopulation.Thispopulationwillbetransportedinautomobilesoffriendsandrelatives.165registeredtransitdependentandhomeboundspecialneedspeoplebasedoninformationprovidedbycountyOEMs.Only5ofthesepeoplewouldneedtransportationassistancetoevacuate.Th eywillbeevacuatedusingpolicecruisers.TransientPopulationTransientestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedbyparkofficials.Transients=12,150TransientestimatesbaseduponinformationprovidedabouttransientattractionsinEPZ.Transients=5,373(ArkansasTechUniversitycommutingstudentsincludedinschoolpopulationbelow)MedicalFacilityPopulationMedicalfacilityvehiclesbasedoninformationprovidedbyofficialsofthosefacilities.Totalcensus=95MedicalfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Currentcensus=367SchoolPopulationSchoolpopulationvehiclesbasedoninformationprovidedbyofficialsofthosefacilities.Schoolenrollmentnotprovided.Vehiclesoriginatingatschools=3,100(includesArkansasTechUniversity)SchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Thisincludesthreehighschoolsandonetechnicalschoolthatwillprimarilyusepersonalvehiclestoevacuate.Schoolenroll ment=16,142Busesrequired=124VoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuatedNotconsidered20percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)ShadowEvacuationNotconsidered20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFigure7 2)NetworkSize128links;88nodes1,177links;750nodesRoadwayGeometricDataNofieldsurveyconducted.RoadwaynetworkmodelusedfrompreviousETEstudy.FieldsurveysconductedinOctober2011.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter.DirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter.

ArkansasNuclearOne1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyRidesharingAssumedpersonswithoutvehicleswouldrelyonfriends,neighborsorrelativesfortransportation.50percentofoncampusstudentsatArkansasTechUniversitythatdonothaveavehiclewillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.Assumedtransitdependentgeneralpopulationwillnotrideshare.TripGenerationforEvacuationTripGenerationbaseduponthoseusedinpreviousETEstudy.Permanentandtransientpopulationsleavebetween30and120minutes.Employeesleavebetween30and60minutes.Alltimesmeasured30minutesaftertheordertoevacuate.Basedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and210minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and165minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and105minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherAdverseweather,heavyrainfallorsnow,runfordayscenarios.Capacityreducedby30%.Normal,Rain,orIce.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forice.ModelingNetVac2DYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.8.0SpecialEventsNoneconsideredArkansasTechUniversityfootballgameSpecialEventPopulation=1,125additionaltransientsEvacuationCases16Regionsand4Scenariosproducing64uniquecases.33Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and14Scenariosproducing462uniquecases.EvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedfor100 thpercentilepopulationforallregions.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90 thand100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZ,100 thpercentileWeekday,Midday,GoodWeather:5:48Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather:7:30Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather:5:00SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:3:40 ArkansasNuclearOne2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.2.1 DataEstimates1. PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebasedupondataobtainedfromtheU.S.CensusBureau,CenterforEconomicStudies,dataprovidedbycountyOEMs,andsurveysofmajoremployersintheEPZ.3. PopulationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromcountyOEMsandfromphonecallstospecificfacilities.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCa pacityManual2010.5. PopulationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanalysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. Therelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromthetelephonesurvey.Averag evaluesof2.17personsperhouseholdand1.30evacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandemployeesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.04employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. ParksandRecreationalAreas:Vehicleoccup ancyvariesbasedupondatagatheredfromlocaltransientfacilities.c. SpecialEvents:Avehicleoccupancyof3personswasusedbasedondiscussionwithpersonnelcoordinatingtheArkansasTechUniversityfootballgames.

ArkansasNuclearOne2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofzonesthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002.3. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.4. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyofthezonesincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.5. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).6. Atotalof14"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherco nditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareoutlinedinTable2 1.7. Scenario14considerstheclosureofasinglelaneeastboundonInterstate 40fromtheinterchangewithMissionRd(Exit78)totheinterchangewithCountyHwy34/FishlakeRd(Exit101).8. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 1).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.1Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.

ArkansasNuclearOne2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenariosSeasonDayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13WinterWeekendMiddayGoodFootballgameatArkansasTechUniversity14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpactLaneClosureonI 40EB**AsinglelaneonI 40willbeclosedintheeastbounddirectionfromMissionRd(Exit78)toCountyHwy34/FishlakeRd(Exit101).

ArkansasNuclearOne2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology ArkansasNuclearOne2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccidentthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirenorNOAAtonenotification.(Eightfive(85)percentoftheEPZpopulationisnotifiedbysirensandtheot her15%isnotifiedbyNOAAtone.)b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirenorNOAAtonenotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofzonesformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuat ewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 45percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1commuter;44percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore20percent(45%x44%=20%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacuationtrip.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderationof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRe gion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.5. Roadblocks(RB)willbestaffedwithinapproximately120minutesfollowingthesirenandNOAAtonenotifications,todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofRBlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis120minutetimeperiod.6. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningattheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytravelerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscent er(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.

ArkansasNuclearOne2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17. Buseswillbeusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedreceptioncenters.b. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoreceptioncenters.c. Schoolchildren,ifschoolisinsession,aregivenpriorityinassigningschoolbuses.d. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.e. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.8. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthegeneralpopulationtoreceptioncentersbypolicecruiser ,basedontheassumptionthatnoneofthesepeoplewillridesharewithfamily,neighbors,orfriends.9. Twotypesofadverseweatherscenariosareconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios;iceoccursinwinterscenariosonly.Itisassumedthattherainoricebeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepresentintheEPZisassumed.Itisassumedthatroadsarepassableduringicescenarios.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 3;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.10. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport70studentsperbusforelementaryschoolsand50studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedondiscussionswithcountyOEMs.Policecruisersusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransportonepersonpercruiser.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationRain90%90%NoEffectIce80%80%NoEffect*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.3Agarwal,M.et.Al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.

ArkansasNuclearOne3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsoftheArkansasNuclearOneEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythreedistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetobusinesseswithintheEPZonadailybasis.EstimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachZoneandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationrose).TheArkansa sNuclearOneEPZissubdividedinto15Zones.TheEPZisshowninFigure3 1.

ArkansasNuclearOne3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.17persons/household-SeeFigureF 1)andthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.30vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 8)wereadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.TheestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbytheZoneandEPZboundaries.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatewhatthepopulationiswithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacrossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZbyZonebasedonthismethodology.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaveragehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable3 2.Figure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromArkansasNuclearOne.This"rose"wasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbeargue dthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductionca nbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforatwoweekperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasi s,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.

ArkansasNuclearOne3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.ArkansasNuclearOneEPZ ArkansasNuclearOne3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationZone2000Population2010PopulationG1,2781,327H12,86114,653I10,61812,262J4,4265,445K1,7982,185L4,0744,484M763936N492579O146141P1,9312,022Q398464R502431S1,7392,133T4,2284,422U1,2771,387TOTAL46,53152,871EPZPopulationGrowth:13.63%Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyZoneZone2010Population2010ResidentVehiclesG1,327794H14,6537,425I12,2627,255J5,4453,274K2,1851,315L4,4842,691M936560N579347O14185P2,0221,214Q464282R431259S2,1331,279T4,4222,651U1,387834TOTAL52,87130,265 ArkansasNuclearOne3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector ArkansasNuclearOne3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector ArkansasNuclearOne3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromArkansasNuclearOne(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuationvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthatfortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesN356215NNE1,186709NE1,091655ENE1,7081,028E2,0651,238ESE2,9231,754SE1,157694SSE983592S876527SSW12172SW758455WSW213128W633381WNW393235NW2,5041,466NNW574345TOTAL17,54110,494 ArkansasNuclearOne3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector ArkansasNuclearOne3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector ArkansasNuclearOne3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.TheArkansasNuclearOneEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiesthatattracttransients,including: LodgingFacilities RecreationalAreas CampgroundsSurveysoflodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZwereconductedtodetermin ethenumberofrooms,percentageofoccupiedroomsatpeaktimes,andthenumberofpeopleandvehiclesperroomforeachfacility.Thesedatawereuse dtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof2,364transientsin958vehiclesareassignedtolodgingfacilitiesintheEPZ.DatawasprovidedbythecountyOEMsforparksandrecreationalareaswithintheEPZtodeterminethenumberoftransientsvisitingeachofthoseplacesonatypicalday.ArkansasTechUniversitywascontactedtodetermin ethenumberofstudentscommutingtotheschool,aswellasthenumberofstudentsthatliveoncampusandhaveavehicleatschool.Althoughstudentscommutingtocollegehav esimilartravelpatternstocommutingemployees-theyentertheEPZtoattendclassesandleavethesameday,theyaretypicallynotpresentonweekendsandduringtheevening-theyaregroupedwithtransientsinthisstudy.Thereareatotalof7,978studentsattendingArkansasTechUniversity(ATU);1,234ofthesestudentsareonlineonlystudents,accordingtoadministrativepersonnelatATU.Atotalof4,187studentsarecommutersand315ofthosecommuterslivewithin10milesoftheuniversity.These315studentsarealreadycountedaspermanentresidents.Itisassumedthatcommutingstudentshavesimilarcarpoolinghabitstoemployees,so1.04commutingstudentspervehicle(discussedbelowinSection3.4)isused.4,187315=3,872commuters;3,872÷1.04=3,723commutervehicles.2,557studentsliveinuniversityhousingand2,500bringavehicletoschool.Allstudentslivingoncampuswhohaveacaroncampuswillusetheirpersonalvehiclestoevacuate.Those57studentswhodonothaveacaroncampuswillbeevacuatedbybus(discussedinSection8).Thereare6,372studentstreatedastransients(3,872commuters+2,500studentswithcarsoncampus=6,372).Thetotalnumberoftransientvehiclesequals6,223(3,723+2,500).Atotalof8,455transientsand7,139vehicleshavebeenassignedtoparks,recreationalareasandtheuniversitywith intheEPZ.DatawasprovidedbythecountyOEMsforthenumberofcampsites,peakoccupancy,andthenumberofvehiclesandpeoplepercampsiteforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfortransientsateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof926transientsand456vehiclesareassignedtocampgroundswi thintheEPZ.AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasgatheredfortheEPZ.TableE 4presents ArkansasNuclearOne3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1thenumberoftransientsvisitingcampgrounds,TableE 5recreationalareas,andTableE 6presentsthenumberoftransientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table3 4presentstransientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbyZone.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddistancefromtheplant.Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesZoneTransientsTransientVehiclesG8045H8,5387,141I1,239543J442171K L M2412N O P600269Q R S555228T250131U1713TOTAL11,7458,553 ArkansasNuclearOne3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector ArkansasNuclearOne3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector ArkansasNuclearOne3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.4 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.YellCountyOEMprovideddataforallmajoremployers(morethan50totalemployees)withintheirportionoftheEPZ;thisdatawasusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheYellCountyportionoftheEPZ.TheemploymentdataforANOwasprovidedbyEntergy.TherearenomajoremployersintheJohnsonandLoganCountyportionsoftheEPZ.TheUSCensusLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsfromtheOnTheMapCensusanalysistool 1wereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZforthePopeCountyportionoftheEPZ.The2010WorkplaceAreaCharacteristicdatawasalsoobtainedfromthiswebsiteandwasusedtodeterminethenumberofemployeesbyCensusBlockwithintheANOEPZ.SincenotallemployeesareworkingatfacilitieswithintheEPZatonetime,ama ximumshiftreductionwasapplied.TheWorkAreaProfileReport,alsooutputbytheOnTheMaptool,breaksdownjobswithintheEPZbyindustrysector.AssumingmaximumshiftemploymentoccursMondaythroughFridaybetween9AMand5PM,thefollowingjobstakeplaceoutsidethetypical9 5workday: Manufacturing-17.4%ofjobs;takesplaceinshiftsover24hours Arts,Entertainment,andRecreation-0.4%ofjobs;takesplaceineveningsandonweekends AccommodationsandFoodServices-8.2%ofjobs;peaksintheevening sThemaximumshiftintheEPZisabout74%(100%17.4%0.4%8.2%=74%).Thisvaluewasappliedtothetotalemploymentin2010torepresentthemaximumnumberofemployeespresentintheEPZatanyonetime.TheInflow/OutflowReportfortheANOEPZwasthenusedtocalculatethepercentofemployeesthatworkwithinthePopeCountyportionofth eEPZbutliveoutside.Thisvalue,61.1%,wasappliedtothemaximumshiftemployeevaluestocomputethenumberofpeoplecommutingintotheEPZtoworkatpeaktimes.InTableE 3,theEmployees(MaxSh ift)ismultipliedbythepercentNon EPZfactor(providedbyeachfacility)todeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.04employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(See1http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

ArkansasNuclearOne3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 7)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajoremployerswithinthePopeCountyportionoftheEPZ.Table3 5presentsnon EPZResidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbyZone.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector.Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesZone2010EmploymentTotalEmployeesCommutingintoEPZTotalEmployeesCommutingintoEPZduringMaxShiftCommutingEmployeeVehiclesG*1,122251210202H**8,3035,0733,7543,611I8,3685,1133,7843,644J647395292281KL420257190183MNOPQRST***1,348856407392UTOTAL20,20811,9458,6378,313*ZoneGincludesdataprovidedbyEntergyforANOanddatacalculatedusingtheU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsinteractivewebsite.**591employees(568vehicles)areassignedtoArkansasTechUniversity.***YellCountyprovideddataforallmajoremployerswithintheirportionoftheEPZ.

ArkansasNuclearOne3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector ArkansasNuclearOne3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector ArkansasNuclearOne3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 MedicalFacilitiesDatawereprovidedbythecountyOEMsforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table8 4andTableE 2inAppendixEsummarizethedatagathered.BasedondiscussionswiththecountyOEMs,allmedicalfacilitiesintheANOEPZwillshelter in place.Therefore,novehiclesareneededtoevacuatemedica lfacilities.3.6 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(external externaltrips)atthetimeofanaccident.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.ThesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ-I 40,SR 22andSR 7.ItisassumedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoentertheEPZduringthefirst120minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(A ADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.TheAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby2hours(roadblocks-RB-areassumedtobeactivatedat120minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,thereare4,956vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternalexternaltripspriortotheactivationoftheRBandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby40%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and12)asdiscussedinSection6.3.7 SpecialEventOnespecialevent(Scenario13)isconsideredfortheETEstudy-afootballgameatArkansasTechUniversity.ThespecialeventtakesplaceonSaturdaysinSeptemberthroughOctober.DatawereobtainedfrompersonnelatArkansasTechUniversity.Attendanceforatypicalgameis4,500people,25%ofwhicharenotEPZresidents,resultingin1,125transients.InformationprovidedbyArkansasTechpersonnelindicatethatthevehicleoccupancyratepervehicleforthiseventisonaverage3people;resultinginanadditional375vehicles.BasedupondiscussionswithArkansasTechpersonnel,vehiclesareparkedonthecampusproperty.Vehicleswereassignedonlinksinthelink nodeanalysisnetworkwithinthecampus.Nopublictransportationisutilizedduringthespecialevent.Thespecialeventvehicletripsweregeneratedutilizingthesamemobilizationdistributionsfortransients.

ArkansasNuclearOne3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.ArkansasNuclearOneEPZExternalTrafficUpstreamNodeDownstreamNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2DFactor 2HourlyVolumeExternalTraffic80036I 40EB16,2000.1160.59401,880805154I 40WB16,2000.1160.59401,88089001006SR 22EB4,3990.1360.52995988006345SR 7NB4,3990.1360.5299598TOTAL: 4,9561HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20122HCM2010 ArkansasNuclearOne3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.8 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandissummarizedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.Thissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissection.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof93,630pe opleand54,439vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.

ArkansasNuclearOne3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandZoneResidentsTransitDependent&SpecialNeedsTransientsEmployeesSpecial Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalG1,3274802101671,788H14,653478,5383,7543499,56336,904I12,262381,2393,7841802,70120,204J5,445174422923836,579K2,18572,192L4,48414190 1,3956,083M936324963N5792581O141141P2,02266002,628Q4641465R4311432S2,13375552,695T4,42214250407321,9337,058U1,387417 1,408ShadowRegion3,5093,509Total52,87116511,7458,63756116,1423,50993,630NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.NOTE:SpecialFacilitiesincludebothmedicalfacilitiesandcorrectionalfacilities.NOTE:Thereisinherentdoublecountinginthistable.SchoolchildrenandspecialfacilityresidentsareincludedintheCensusaspermanentresidents.Also,transientspeakonweekends,whileem ployeespeakduringtheweek.SeetheScenariopercentagesinTable6 3.

ArkansasNuclearOne3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandZoneResidentsTransitDependent&SpecialNeedsTransientsEmployeesSpecialFacilitiesSchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalG79445202ShelterInPlace61,047H7,42527,1413,61110618,285I7,25525433,6443411,478J3,2741171281123,739K1,3151,315L2,691183402,914M56012572N347347O8585P1,2142691,483Q282282R259259S1,2792281,507T2,651131392503,224U83413847ShadowRegion 2,0994,9567,055Total30,2651028,5538,3134912482,0994,95654,439NOTE:SchoolBusesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.NOTE:Transientspeakonweekends,whileemployeespeakduringtheweek.SeetheScenariopercentagesinTable6 3andthetotalevacuatingvehiclesbyScenarioinTable6 4.

ArkansasNuclearOne4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,snow,fog,windspeed,ice)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)

ArkansasNuclearOne4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentand20percentforrainandice,respectively.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacit ymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeinters ectionswhereflowcanbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsortur nbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobecomethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theex istingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedinthecountyemergencyplansareextensiveandwereadoptedwithoutchange.Theperlanecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutes ArkansasNuclearOne4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1movement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecutingmovement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycl e;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:

2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 ArkansasNuclearOne4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexit yofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity ArkansasNuclearOne4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.

ArkansasNuclearOne4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtotheArkansasNuclearOneStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade) FreewaysEachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15Twolanero adscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"ClassI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A ArkansasNuclearOne4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 FreewaysRef:HCMChapters10,11,12,13Chapter10oftheHCM2010describesaprocedureforintegratingtheresultsobtainedinChapters11,12and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewa ycomponents.Chapter10alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomaticallyperformsthisintegrationprocess.Chapter11oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSfor"BasicFreewaySegments".Exhibit11 17oftheHCM2010presentscapacit yvs.freespeedestimates,whichareprovidedbelow.FreeSpeed(mph):55606570+Per LaneCapacity(pc/h):2250230023502400Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,free speedsandcapacitybasedonfieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtime varyingspeedsbasedondemand:capacityrelationships.Aconservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof2250pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyforfreeways,asshowninAppendixK.Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapa city,speed,densityandLOSforfreewayweavingsections.Thesimulationmodelcontainslogicthatrelatesspeedtodemandvolume:capacityratio.ThevalueofcapacityobtainedfromthecomputationalproceduresdetailedinChapter12dependsonthe"Type"andgeometricsoftheweavingsegmentan donthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).Chapter13oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacitiesoframpsandof"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofarampfreewayjunction:Thecapacityofthefreewayimmediatelydownstreamofanon ramporimmediatelyupstreamofanoff ramp;thecapacityoftheramproadway;andthemaximumflowrateenteringtherampinfluencearea.Inmostcases,thefreewaycapacityisthecontrollingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit13 8oftheHCM2010,anddependonthenumberoffreewaylanesandonthefreewayfreespeed.RampcapacityispresentedinExhibit13 10andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficinaccordwiththeproceduresinCh apter13oftheHCM2010.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemandrelativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly).

ArkansasNuclearOne4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3.4 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Whereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersect ionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuat edsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contra flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChap ter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"ThesystemunderstudyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.Itisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicat ethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantof ArkansasNuclearOne4 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink.

ArkansasNuclearOne4 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams ArkansasNuclearOne5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREGCR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundIngeneral,anaccidentatanuclearpowerplantischaracterizedbythefollowingEmergencyClassificationLevels(seeAppendix1ofNUREG0654fordetails):1. UnusualEvent2. Alert3. SiteAreaEmergency4. GeneralEmergencyAteachlevel,theFederalguidelinesspecifyasetofActionstobeundertakenbyth eLicensee,andbyStateandLocaloffsiteauthorities.AsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingaccidentwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththesirenorNOAAtonenotification.(Eightfive(85)percentoftheEPZpopulationisnotifiedbysirensandtheother15%isnotifiedbyNOAAtone.)2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterthesirenorNOAAtonenotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Itislikelythatalongertimewillel apsebetweenthevariousclassesofanemergency.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenorNOAAtonealerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthiscase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelower ArkansasNuclearOne5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1whentheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenorNOAAtonealert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthantheestimatespres entedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,NOAAtonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately300squaremilesandisengagedinawidevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromonei ndividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevacuationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertr avelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivingnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,an d/orNOAAtonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbytelephone,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.TheremainingdiscussionwillfocusontheapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.

ArkansasNuclearOne5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.Ahousehold ArkansasNuclearOne5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1withintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbeforebeginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowtheseco ndsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweekendsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).TransientswillalwaysfollowoneofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicat edway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprecedingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthisstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccu rstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.

ArkansasNuclearOne5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time ArkansasNuclearOne5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Inaccordancewiththe2012FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessProgramManual,100%ofthepopulationisnotifiedwithin45minutes.Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirensandNOAAtonealertswithintheEPZ)that87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified 0 0.0%5 7.1%10 13.3%15 26.5%20 46.9%25 66.3%30 86.7%35 91.8%40 96.9%45 100.0%

ArkansasNuclearOne5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00.0%4093.2%546.9%4594.8%1062.8%5095.1%1571.8%5595.1%2076.1%6099.0%2577.0%6599.4%3091.3%7099.7%3592.2%75100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.

ArkansasNuclearOne5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00.0%3594.7%517.7%4096.3%1035.7%4598.4%1559.6%5098.8%2077.0%5598.8%2581.7%60100.0%3092.5%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response

ArkansasNuclearOne5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate00.0%7093.4%56.8%7594.7%1013.6%8094.9%1520.4%8595.0%2035.5%9095.2%2550.7%9595.3%3065.9%10095.5%3569.0%10595.6%4072.1%11096.5%4575.3%11597.4%5080.5%12098.2%5585.6%12598.8%6090.8%13099.4%6592.1%135100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response ArkansasNuclearOne5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%20%40%60%80%100%03060901 201 5 0 PercentofHouseholdsCompletingActivityElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHome ArkansasNuclearOne5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table5 6presentsthesummingpr oceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 6.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5Table5 7presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).

ArkansasNuclearOne5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor500responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnonparametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciplesareused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 6,Table57);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles; ArkansasNuclearOne5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterthan3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.5) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3.0.0%10.0%20.0%

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90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.5 37.542.547.5 52.557.567.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution ArkansasNuclearOne5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bothveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,nota"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturning).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,usingweightingbasedupontheprobabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,C,andD.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter,andsoforth.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,C,andD,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother,aretabulatedinTable5 8(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(15)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.

ArkansasNuclearOne5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Zonescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. Zonescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinzonesbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoption savailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthezonescomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*,isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltrip saregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance).

ArkansasNuclearOne5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenon sheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*is2:00.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersFigure5 5presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommuters;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeis120minutesforgoodweather.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,20%ofthepopulation(whonormallywouldhavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesforanun stagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationtime,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 9providesthetripgenerationhistogramsforstagedevacuation.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysChapter6ofthePope,Johnson,LoganandYellCountyRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansindicates:ThePopeCountyMarineRescueUnitandtheArkansasGameandFishCommissionwillprovidenoti ficationtoboatersonLakeDardanelle,theArkansasRiveranditsmajortributarieswithintheEPZ.TheArkansasWingoftheCivilAirPatrolwillprovideairsearchoftheentirelakeandriverarea,asnecessary.AsindicatedinTable5 2,thisst udyassumes100%notificationin45minutes.Table5 8indicatesthatalltransientswillhavemobilizedwithin1hourand45minutes.Itisassumedthatthis1hourand45minutetimeframeissufficienttimeforboaters,campersandothertransientstoreturntotheirvehiclesandbegintheirevacuationtrip.

ArkansasNuclearOne5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)115 7%7%0%1%215 35%35%0%12%315 33%33%5%28%415 16%16%14%27%515 5%5%21%14%615 3%3%20%9%715 1%1%15%4%815 0%0%10%1%915 0%0%6%1%1015 0%0%3%2%1115 0%0%3%1%1215 0%0%1%0%1315 0%0%1%0%1415 0%0%1%0%15600 0%0%0%0%NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionsCforgoodweather. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.

ArkansasNuclearOne5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240

%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromAdvisorytoEvacuatemin)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommuters ArkansasNuclearOne5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1 15 0%0%2 15 0%3%3 15 1%5%4 15 3%6%5 15 4%2%6 15 4%2%7 15 3%1%8 15 2%0%9 15 74%78%1015 3%2%1115 3%1%1215 1%0%1315 1%0%1415 1%0%15600 0%0%*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 8)isthesameforUn stagedandStagedEvacuation.

ArkansasNuclearOne5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUn stagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240

%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromAdvisorytoEvacuate(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommutersStagedResidentswithnoCommuters ArkansasNuclearOne6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingzonesthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergenc y.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Atotalof33Regionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupingsofzonesconsidered.TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable6 1.ThezoneconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesectorbasedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thece ntralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesfromtheplant(RegionsR04throughR12)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR13throughR23).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,respect ively.RegionsR24throughR33areidenticaltoRegionsR02andR04throughR12,respectively;however,thosezonesbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2 mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.Atotalof14ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thus,thereareatotalof33x14=462evacuationcases.Table6 2isadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeachscenario.Table6 4presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThevehicleestimatespresentedinSection3arepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentages,suchthattheaveragepopulationisconsider edforeachevacuationcase.ThescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 3,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.ThepercentagespresentedinTable6 3weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof45%(thenumberofho useholdswithatleastonecommuter)and44%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommuterthatwouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosth at10%ofthosehouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.

ArkansasNuclearOne6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Employmentisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedontheestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisalsoestimatedthatonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeakduringsummerweeken dsandless(80%)duringtheweek.AsshowninAppendixE,thereisasignificantamountoflodgingandcampgroundsofferingovernightaccommodationsintheEPZ;thus,transientactivityisestimatedtobehighduringeveninghours-75%forsummerand25%forwinter.Transientactivityduringthewinterisestimatedtobe40%duringtheweekand50%onweekends.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 3,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheshadowregionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshadowregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 4forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:Onespecialevent-FootballgameatArkansasTechUniversity-wasconsideredasScenario13.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario13,and0%forallotherscenarios.Transientactivitywasalsoestimatedtobe100%forthisscenario.Summerschoolenrollmentisapproximately2%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearforsummer,midweek ,middayscenarios,accordingtocountyemergencymanagementpersonnel.Schoolisnotinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillben eededunderthosecircumstances.ItisestimatedthatArkansasTechUniversity(ATU)has10%ofthetotalenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearforsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.ATUisinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middaywith100%enrollment.Policecruisersforthetransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.

ArkansasNuclearOne6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR012 MileRingXR025 MileRingXXXXXXXR03FullEPZXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR04NXXR05NNE,NE,ENEXXXR06E,ESEXXXXR07SE,SSEXXXXR08SXXXR09SSW,SWXXR10WSW,WXXXR11WNWXXXXR12NW,NNWXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR13NXXXXR14NNE,NE,ENEXXXXXR15E,ESEXXXXXXR16SE,SSE,SXXXXXXR17SSWXXXXR18SWXXXXXR19WSWXXXXXXXR20WXXXXXXR21WNWXXXXXXR22NWXXXXXXXR23NNWXXXXXX

ArkansasNuclearOne6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR245 MileRingXXXXXXXR25NXXR26NNE,NE,ENEXXXR27E,ESEXXXXR28SE,SSEXXXXR29SXXXR30SSW,SWXXR31WSW,WXXXR32WNWXXXXR33NW,NNWXXXZONE(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateZONE(s)Shelter in PlaceZONE(s)Evacuate ArkansasNuclearOne6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.ANOEPZZones ArkansasNuclearOne6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenariosSeasonDayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13WinterWeekendMiddayGoodFootballgameatArkansasTechUniversity14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpactLaneClosureonI 40EB**AsinglelaneonI 40willbeclosedintheeastbounddirectionfromMissionRd(Exit78)toCountyHwy34/FishlakeRd(Exit101)

ArkansasNuclearOne6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadowSpecialEventsArkansasTechUniversitySchoolBusesPoliceCruisersExternalThroughTraffic120%80%96%80%25%0%10%2%100%100%220%80%96%80%25%0%10%2%100%100%32%98%10%100%21%0%0%0%100%100%42%98%10%100%21%0%0%0%100%100%52%98%10%75%21%0%0%0%100%40%620%80%100%40%25%0%100%100%100%100%720%80%100%40%25%0%100%100%100%100%820%80%100%40%25%0%100%100%100%100%92%98%10%50%21%0%0%0%100%100%102%98%10%50%21%0%0%0%100%100%112%98%10%50%21%0%0%0%100%100%122%98%10%25%21%0%0%0%100%40%132%98%10%100%21%100%0%0%100%100%1420%80%96%80%25%0%10%2%100%100%ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters.HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees.................................................EPZemployeeswh oliveoutsidetheEPZTransients.................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow.....................................................Residentsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.ArkansasTechUniversity...........................PersonalvehiclesforstudentcommutingtoclassesattheUniversity.SchoolBuses.............................................Busesevacuatingschoolswhenschoolisinsession.PoliceCruisers...........................................Policecruisersorotheremergencyworkervehiclesevacuatingtransitdependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.ExternalThroughTraffic............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbyroadblocks2hoursaftertheevacuationbegins.

ArkansasNuclearOne6 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadowSpecialEventsArkansasTechUniversity 1SchoolBuses 2PoliceCruisersExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles15,99424,2717,4351,8642,6546795 54,95647,863 25,99424,2717,4351,8642,6546795 54,95647,863 359929,6667752,3302,19254,95640,523 459929,6667752,3302,19254,95640,523 559929,6667751,7482,19251,98236,967 65,99424,2717,7459322,6756,791248 54,95653,617 75,99424,2717,7459322,6756,791248 54,95653,617 85,99424,2717,7459322,6756,791248 54,95653,617 959929,6667751,1652,19254,95639,358 1059929,6667751,1652,19254,95639,358 1159929,6667751,1652,19254,95639,358 1259929,6667755832,19251,98235,802 1359929,6667752,3302,19237554,95640,898 145,99424,2717,4351,8642,6546795 54,95647,863Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)16,223commutingstudentswereincludedastransientsinTable3 4.568employeesatuniversitywereincludedasemployeesinTable3 5.Thereare6,791peopleattheuniversityatpeaktimes.2Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschools(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).

ArkansasNuclearOne7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover33regionswithintheANOEPZandthe14EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallevacuationcasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTabl e7 4.Table7 5definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZinzonesforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevoluntaryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendatio nhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithinth eimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEfortheANOEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpeoplelocatedinzonesoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,ar eassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedthat20percentofthosepeopleintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof17,541peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4fo rthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion,travelingawayfromtheArkansasNuclearOnelocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingevacuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Zonescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.2. Zonescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared.

ArkansasNuclearOne7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofthe2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 8illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthewinter,midweek,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario6).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedinthesefiguresbyathickredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.Congestiondevelopsrapidlyaroundconcentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecks.Figure7 3displaysthecongestionpatternsat1houraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).Thetwomajorpopulationcent erswithintheEPZ-RussellvilleandDardanelle-arecompletelycongested.InRussellville,allroadwayswhichintersectUS64orhaveinterchangeswithI 40areoperatingatLOSF.SR 124eastboundleavingRussellvilleandintheShadowRegionisalsooperatingatLOSF.StateRoutes7,22,27an d28inDardanellearealsoheavilycongested.

ArkansasNuclearOne7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Atonehourand30minutes,congestionwithinthestudyareapeaks,asshowninFigure7 4.AlloftheroadwaysinRussellvilleintersectingUS 64andtherampsaccessingI 40eastboundareheavilycongested.I 40andUS 64eastboundarecongestedfromthewesterncitylimitsofRussellvilletoAtkins.Evacuationroutestothenortheastarealsocongestedasev acueesfromRussellvillearereroutingnorthboundtoavoidthecongestionwithinRussellville.Mostofthosewhore routeeventuallyuseSR 124andHighway247asalternateroutestoMorrilton.AllevacuationroutesservicingDardanellearealsoheavilycongested.SR 359westboundinLamarwithintheShadowRegionisalsocongested.At2hoursand30minutesaftertheATE,asshowninFigure7 5,pronou ncedtrafficcongestionpersistsinRussellville.However,trafficcongestioninDardanellehasdissipated(clearedat2hoursand15minutes).TrafficcongestionintheShadowRegiontothenortheast(p articularlyinMoreland)persists,especiallyalongSR 124eastboundandSR 27northboundtowardsHector.TrafficcongestionwestboundonI 40andUS 64hascleared.SR 359westboundinLamarisstilloperatingatLOSF,thoughthequeuelengthisdiminishing.At4hoursaftertheATE,asshowninFigure7 6,the5 mileregion,aswellasthewesternhalfoftheEPZisnowclearofcongestion.TrafficcongestionstillpersistsintheeasternhalfofRussellvilleandintheShadowRegiontothenortheast.US 64andI 40east boundarecongestedfromtheinterchangewithWeirRd(Exit83)inRussellvilletojusteastofAtkins.SR 105northboundtowardAtkinsisheavilycongested.ManyevacueesfromRussellvilleareusingSR 105viaHighway247andRiverRdtoavoidthecongestionalongI 40andUS 64eastbound.Figure7 7displaysanEPZthatisessentiallycl earofevacuatingtrafficat5hoursaftertheATE.ThelastcongestedroadintheEPZisI 40eastbound,whichclears5minutesearlier.Figure7 8(5hoursand30minutesaftertheATE)showsthelastofthecongestioninthestudyarea-I 40eastboundthroughAtkinsandSR 105northbound.Theseroutesclearat6hoursand5minut esaftertheATE.7.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 9throughFigure7 22.Thesefiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflo wsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioconsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 9,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegintoevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeopleresp ondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofully ArkansasNuclearOne7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1saturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeuntiltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.Notethatafter2hoursinFigure7 14throughFigure7 16,theslopesofthecurvesarerelativelyconstant.ThisisduetothecapacityconstraintsoftheevacuationroutesservicingRussellvilleandtheresultingcongestionasdi scussedinSection7.3andshowninFigure7 3throughFigure7 8.7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1andTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall33EvacuationRegionsandall14EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3andTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2 mileregionforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Thetablesareorganizedasfollows:TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 8.MostofthecongestionintheEPZiswithinRussellville(ZonesHandI)whichisbeyondthe2 mileregion;thisisreflectedintheETEstatistics: The90 thpercentileETEforRegionsR01andR02(2and5 mileregions)arecomparableandgenerallyrangebetween1:55(hr:min)and2:10(slightlyhigherforrainandice).The90 thpercentileETEforRegionR02isabout30minuteshigherforwinter,midweek,middayscenarios(Scenarios6through8)duetotheincreaseintrafficcongestioncausedbytheevacuationofArkansasTechUniversity(inZoneHwithinthe5 mileregion).

ArkansasNuclearOne7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 The90 thpercentileETEforRegionsR03(fullEPZ)andR19throughR23(whichincludetheevacuationofRussellville)areonetotwohourslongerthanregionsextendingto5milesorless.RegionsR13throughR18havecomparableETEtoregionsextendingto5milesorlessasRussellvilleisnotevacuatedfortheseregion s.The100 thpercentileETEforallregionsextendingto5milesorlessandRegionsR13throughR18areequaltomobilizationtime.Thisindicatesthatcongestionwithintheseregionsdissipatespriortotheendofmobilization.However,ETEforRegionsR03andR19throughR23,whichextendtotheEPZBoundaryandincludetheevac uationofallofRussellvilleextendbeyondmobilizationtimeduetothecongestiondiscussedinSection7.3.ComparisonofScenarios9and13inTables7 1and7 2indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-footballgameatArkansasTechUniversity-haslittleimpactontheETEforthe90 thpercentile(atmosta10minuteincrease)andnoimpactonthe100 thpercentile.Theadditional375vehiclespresenthadlittleeffectonthelocalroadsinZoneH.ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1and7 2indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelaneeastboundonI 40fromtheinterchangewithExit78(MissionRd)toExit101(CountyHw y34/FishlakeRd)-hasamaterialimpactonthe90 thand100 thpercentileETEs.ThoseregionswhereinallofRussellvilleevacuatesexperienceincreasesinETEofuptoonehourandfifteenminutes(90 thpercentile)and1hourand35minutes(100 thpercentile).Regionsextendingto5milesorlessarelessimpacted,withincreasesinETEofatmost15minutesatthe90 thpercentileandnoimpactatthe100 thpercentile.EvacueesfromRussellvillerelyheavilyonI 40eastbound.WithalaneclosedonI 40eastboundintheRussellvillecommunity,thecapacityofI 40isreducedtolessthanhalf,increasingcongestionandprolongingETE.TheresultsoftheroadwayimpactscenarioindicatethateventssuchasadverseweatherortrafficaccidentswhichclosealaneonI 40,couldimpactETE.Stateandlocalpolicecouldconsidertrafficmanagementtacticssuchasusingtheshoulderoftheroadwayasatravellaneorre routingoftrafficalongotherevacuationroutestoavoidoverwhelmingI 40.AlleffortsshouldbemadetoremovetheblockageonI 40assoonaspossible.ItcanbeseeninTable7 1thatseveralanomaliesexistatthe90 thpercentile.Forexample,inTable7 1forScenario1,the90 thpercentileETEforRegionR03(fullEPZ)is3:10,whilethatforRegionR19(2mileradialevacuationdownwindtotheEPZboundarywithwindfromtheWSW)is3:25.ReferencingTable3 2,thereare30,265residentvehiclesevacuatingforthefullEPZ.RegionR19,however,evacuatesonlyZonesGthroughM(seeninTable6 1)foratotalof23,314residentvehicles.Supposethat2,500vehiclesar ehinderedbytrafficcongestioninRussellvilleanddonotcrosstheEPZboundary.These2,500vehiclesconstitute8.3%oftheevacuatingresidentvehiclesforRegionR03,and10.7%oftheevacuatingresidentvehiclesforRegionR19.Thus,thistrafficjaminRussellvilledoesnotprolongthe90 thpercentileETEforanevacuationofthefullEPZ,butitdoesforRegionR19(onlyZonesGthoughM).Essentially,anevacuationofthefullEPZinvolvestheevacuationofmorevehiclesfromotherpartsoftheEPZwhichdonotfacetrafficcongestionandcanevacuatemorequickly.The90 thpercentileETEcanbereachedmorequicklyforRegionR03forsomecases.Thisanomalydoesnotexistatthe ArkansasNuclearOne7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1100 thpercentilebecausethatisthetimeforthelastvehicletodeparttheEPZ.RussellvilleisalwaysthelastplaceintheEPZtoclearsothelastvehicleforthefullEPZwillbethelastvehicleforanysmallerRegion(includingRegionR19)toevacuateRussellville.7.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3an dTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEcompiledfortheconcurrent(un staged)andstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR24throughR33arethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR02andR04throughR12,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustshowthatth eETEforthe2 mileregioncanbereducedwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheregionbetween2milesand5miles.Inallcases,asshowninthesetables,theETEforthe2mileregionisunchangedwhenastagedevacuationisimplemented.AlthoughcongestionwithinZoneHinthe5 milere gionissignificant,itdoesnotpropagateintothe2 mileregionandthereforedoesnotimpedetheevacuationofthe2 mileregion.Therefore,stagingtheevacuationtosharplyreducecongestionwithinthe5 mileregionprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2 milere gion.AsindicatedinTable7 3,the2 mileregionETEforsomestagedcasesactuallyincreasesbyatmost10minutes.TherearesomevehiclesfromZonesNandKwhotravelsouthboundonSR 333toaccessI 40westbound.Bystagingtheevacuation,thesevehicleshavetowait2hour sforthe2 mileregiontoclearbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip.ThisdelaycausesthosesubtleincreasesinETE.Table7 4indicatesthatthe100 thpercentileETEareunaffectedforallstagedevacuationcases.Whilefailingtoprovideassistancetoevacueesfromwithin2milesofANO,stagingproducesanegativeimpactontheETEforthoseevacuatingfromwithinthe5 mileregion.AcomparisonofETEbetweenRegionsR24throughR33andR02andR04throughR12,respectively,revealsthatstagingretardsthe90 thpercentileETEforthoseinthe2to5 mileregionbyupto1hourand15minutes(seeTable7 1)andthe100 thpercentileETEbyupto15minutes(seeTable7 2).ThisextendingofETEisduetothedelayinbeginningtheevacuationtrip,experiencedbythosewhoshelter,plustheeffectofthetrip generation"spike"(significantvolumeoftrafficbeginningtheevacuationtripatthesametime)thatfollowstheireventualATE,increatingcongestionwithintheEPZareabeyond2miles.Insummary,thestagedevacuationprotectiveactionstrategyprovidesnobenefitsandadverselyimpactsmanyevacueeslocatedbeyond2milesfromANO.Stagedevacuationisnotrecommendedforthissite.7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season ArkansasNuclearOne7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain Ice* SpecialEvent FootballgameatArkansasTechUniversity RoadClosure(AlaneonI 40EBisclosed)* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhilethes eScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(10)forrainapply.* Theconditionsofawinterevenin g(eithermidweekorweekend)andicearenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(8)and(11)foriceapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatonlysummerschoolsareinsessionwithenrollmentsignificantlylessthannormalenrollment. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellin gto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewinddirection).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcomp assorientation:fromN,NNE,NE,-* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.TheapplicabledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow:

ArkansasNuclearOne7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 2Miles(RegionR01) To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR12) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R13throughR23)* EnterTable7 5andidentifytheapplicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthedistancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromArkansasNuclearOne.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionoftheplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* IdentifytherowinthistablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes.

ArkansasNuclearOne7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionisfromthenortheast(NE).* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea2 mileradiusanddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 5andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary"forwinddirectionfromtheNEandreadRegionR14inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR14.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR14;itcontainstheETEvalueof2:05.

ArkansasNuclearOne7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR012:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R021:552:001:501:551:452:202:302:451:551:552:051:451:552:10R033:103:252:352:452:303:554:204:452:302:402:552:252:354:152 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R052:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R062:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R072:052:052:052:051:552:052:052:052:052:052:101:552:052:05R082:052:052:052:051:552:052:052:102:052:052:101:552:052:05R092:002:052:052:051:552:002:052:052:052:052:051:552:052:00R101:552:051:501:551:452:202:352:401:501:552:051:451:502:10R111:552:051:501:551:452:202:352:351:501:552:051:451:502:10R122:002:001:501:551:452:202:302:451:501:552:001:501:502:102 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR132:052:052:002:051:552:052:052:102:002:052:101:552:002:05R142:002:052:002:051:552:052:052:052:002:052:101:552:002:00R152:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R162:052:052:002:051:552:052:052:102:052:052:101:552:052:05R172:002:002:002:001:502:002:052:102:002:002:051:502:002:00R182:052:102:052:102:052:052:102:202:052:102:202:052:052:15R193:253:402:402:552:354:054:254:552:352:453:052:302:404:35R203:153:352:402:552:304:054:255:052:352:503:052:302:454:30R213:203:352:402:552:354:054:254:552:352:503:102:302:404:30R223:153:352:402:452:304:004:254:552:352:453:052:252:404:25R233:003:252:252:352:203:454:104:352:252:352:452:202:304:05 ArkansasNuclearOne7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR242:452:452:502:502:502:402:452:502:502:502:552:552:502:45R252:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:10R262:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:15R272:102:152:152:152:152:102:152:152:152:152:152:152:152:10R282:202:202:202:202:252:202:202:202:202:202:202:252:202:20R292:202:202:202:202:252:202:202:202:202:202:252:252:202:20R302:152:152:152:202:202:152:152:202:152:202:202:202:152:15R312:502:553:003:003:002:502:553:003:003:003:103:003:002:55R322:452:452:502:502:552:402:502:552:502:553:002:552:502:50R332:452:452:502:502:552:452:503:052:502:553:052:552:502:50 ArkansasNuclearOne7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR013:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R023:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R034:204:303:403:403:405:005:306:103:403:404:003:403:405:502 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR043:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R053:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R063:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R073:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R083:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R093:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R103:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R113:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R123:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:352 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR133:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R143:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R153:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R163:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R173:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R183:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:403:40R194:204:303:403:403:405:005:256:103:403:404:003:403:405:50R204:154:303:403:403:405:005:256:103:403:403:553:403:405:50R214:154:303:403:403:405:005:306:053:403:404:003:403:405:50R224:154:303:403:403:405:005:306:053:403:404:003:403:405:45R234:004:253:403:403:404:455:155:503:403:404:003:403:405:35 ArkansasNuclearOne7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR243:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:453:353:353:353:353:353:35R253:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R263:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R273:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R283:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R293:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R303:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:35R313:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:503:353:353:353:353:353:35R323:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:453:353:353:353:353:353:35R333:353:353:353:353:353:353:353:503:353:353:453:353:353:35 ArkansasNuclearOne7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR012:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R022:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R042:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R052:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R062:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R072:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R082:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R092:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R102:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R112:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05R122:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:102:052:052:102:002:052:05StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR242:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R252:052:052:052:102:052:052:052:102:052:102:102:052:052:05R262:052:052:052:102:052:052:052:102:052:102:102:052:052:05R272:052:052:052:102:052:052:052:102:052:102:102:052:052:05R282:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R292:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R302:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R312:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R322:052:102:102:102:102:052:102:102:102:102:102:102:102:05R332:052:052:052:102:052:052:052:102:052:102:102:052:052:05 ArkansasNuclearOne7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR013:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R023:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R043:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R053:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R063:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R073:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R083:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R093:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R103:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R113:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R123:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR243:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R253:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R263:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R273:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R283:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R293:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R313:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R323:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30R333:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:303:30 ArkansasNuclearOne7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR012 MileRingXR025 MileRingXXXXXXXR03FullEPZXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR04NXXR05NNE,NE,ENEXXXR06E,ESEXXXXR07SE,SSEXXXXR08SXXXR09SSW,SWXXR10WSW,WXXXR11WNWXXXXR12NW,NNWXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR13NXXXXR14NNE,NE,ENEXXXXXR15E,ESEXXXXXXR16SE,SSE,SXXXXXXR17SSWXXXXR18SWXXXXXR19WSWXXXXXXXR20WXXXXXXR21WNWXXXXXXR22NWXXXXXXXR23NNWXXXXXX

ArkansasNuclearOne7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR245 MileRingXXXXXXXR25NXXR26NNE,NE,ENEXXXR27E,ESEXXXXR28SE,SSEXXXXR29SXXXR30SSW,SWXXR31WSW,WXXXR32WNWXXXXR33NW,NNWXXXZONE(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateZONE(s)Shelter in PlaceZONE(s)Evacuate ArkansasNuclearOne7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology ArkansasNuclearOne7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.ANOShadowRegion ArkansasNuclearOne7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate ArkansasNuclearOne7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1Hour,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate ArkansasNuclearOne7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat2Hours,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate ArkansasNuclearOne7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate ArkansasNuclearOne7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat5HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate ArkansasNuclearOne7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat5Hours,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate ArkansasNuclearOne7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

ArkansasNuclearOne7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

ArkansasNuclearOne7 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

ArkansasNuclearOne7 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330360 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330360390 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

ArkansasNuclearOne7 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario9)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

ArkansasNuclearOne7 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario12)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

ArkansasNuclearOne7 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure721.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03Figure722.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 600306090120150180210240270300330360390 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

ArkansasNuclearOne8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles.Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)homeboundspecialneedspopulation;and(3)schoolchildren.Thesetrans itvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepresentsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoafa cilitytobeevacuatedTheseactivitiesconsumetime.Basedondiscussionwiththeoffsiteagencies,mobilizationtimeforschoolsrangesfrom10minutesto30minutesasbusesanddriversremainatorneartheschoolsthroughouttheday.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizationactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointheirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.AsdiscussedinSection2,thisstudyassumesafastbreakinggeneralemergency.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtoreceptioncenters.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.Basedoninformationprovide dbytheoffsiteagencies,daycarecentershavetheirownvehiclesandhavesufficientresourcestoevacuatewithoutcountyassistance.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions* Estimatero utetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtothereceptioncenters ArkansasNuclearOne8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.1 TransitDependentandHomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationChapter6,SectionII,Item1conPage44ofAnnexVtotheStateofArkansasRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlaninSupportofArkansasNuclearOneindicatesthatanEmergencyInstructionBooklet(EIB)willbeupdatedannuallyandmailedtoeachhouseholdwi thinthe10 mileEPZ.TheEIBwillcontainapostage prepaid,detachablepostcardforusebypersonswhomayhavespecialneeds,suchasforout of the ordinarynotificationortransportationrequirements.ThisformistobemailedtotheArkansasDepartmentofHealth(ADH)NuclearPlanning&ResponseProgram(NP&RP)office.Theinformationissubsequentlyprovidedtotheappropriatelocalgovernment.Page6ofth eannualEIBprovidesamailingaddress,phonenumberande mailaddressforspecialneedspeoplewhowantadditionalinformationaboutspecialnotificationortransportationintheeventofanincidentatANO.Thespecialneedsinformationformattachedtothebookletallowsspecialneedspeople(includingthosepeoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicleforevacuation)toregister.Theoffsiteresponseorganizationsindicatedthattherearecurrently165registeredspecialneedsandtransitdependentpeoplelivingwithintheEPZ.Ofthese165register edpeople,only5wouldneedaridetoevacuateintheeventofanincidentatANO.8.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 1presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZforthe2011 2012schoolyear.Thisinformationwasprovidedbythecountyemergencymanagementoffices.ThecolumninTable8 1entitled"BusesRequired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* StudentsatallhighschoolsintheEPZandatArkansasTechCareerCent erwillevacuateinpersonalvehiclesorinthevehiclesofstaffmembers.ThesevehicleshavealreadybeenaccountedforaspermanentresidentsdiscussedinSection3.1.Threebusesareassignedtoeachhighschoolasacontingencyplanintheeventtherearenotsufficientpersonalvehiclestoevacuateallstudentsandstaff.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsand50formiddleandhighschools.* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanyth estudentsatelementaryandmiddleschoolswillevacuateintheirprivatevehicles.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.Table8 2presentsalistofthereceptioncentersforeachschoolintheEPZ.Studentswillbetransportedtothesecenterswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.

ArkansasNuclearOne8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.3 MedicalFacilityPopulationTable8 3presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.367peoplehavebeenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,thesefacilities.Thecapacityandcurrentcensusforeachfacilitywereprovidedbythecountyemergencymanagementoffices.Thisdataincludesthenumberofambulatory,wheelchair boundandbedriddenpatientsateachfacility.Basedondiscussionswiththeoffsiteresponseorganizations,allmedicalfacilitiesintheANOEPZwillshelter in placeandpotassiumiodide(KI)willbeadministeredtopatientsandstaff.Therefore,novehiclesareneededformedicalfacilitiesandETEarenotcomputedformedicalfacilities.8.4 CorrectionalFacilityPopulationAsdetailedinTableE 7,therear etwocorrectionalfacilitieswithintheEPZ-PopeCountyJailandYellCountySheriff'sDepartment.Thetotalinmatepopulationatthesefacilitiesis194persons.Basedondiscussionswiththeoffsiteresponseorganizations,bothcorrectionalfacilitieswillshelter in placeandKIwillbeadministeredtoinmatesandstaff.Therefore,novehiclesareneededforcorrectionalfacilitiesandETEarenotcomputedforcorrectionalfacilities.8.5 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentandHomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationAsdetailedinSection8.1,thereare5register edtransitdependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersonsintheEPZ.BasedondiscussionswiththeOROs,thesepeoplewouldbeevacuatedinapolicecruiserorinthecarofanemergencyworker.TheETEforthesepeoplearecomputedasfollows: Mobilizationtime:90minutestopacknecessaryitemsandawaitthearrivalofapo licecruiser(10minuteslongerinrainand20minuteslongeriniceduetoslowertravelspeedsofthepolicecruisers) Loadingtime:5minutesforgoodandadverseweather Traveltime:Conservativelyassumethatpolicecruiserswillhavetotravelatmost10milestotheEPZboundaryfromthehomesoftransitdependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Theaveragenetworkwidespeedat95minutes(mobilizationtime+loadingtime)foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(regionR03)underScenario6(goodweather)conditionsis21.6mph.Traveltimeis28minutes-10milesat21.6mph-ingoodweather;32minutes-10milesat18.7mphat105minutes-inrain;37minutes-10milesat16.2mphat115minutes-inice. ETE(goodweather)=90+5+28=123minutes,or2:05(hr:min)-roundeduptonearest5minutes ETE(rain)=100+5+32=137minut es,or2:20 ETE(ice)=110+5+37=152minutes,or2:35 ArkansasNuclearOne8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4summarizesthetransportationresourcesavailable(dataprovidedbycountyOEMs)toassistintheevacuationoftheANOEPZ,andthetransportationresourcesneededtoevacuatetheEPZ.Table8 4indicatesthattherearesufficienttransportationresourcestoevacuatethetransitdependentandhomeboundspecialneedspopulationinasinglewave.TheETEforthetransitdependentandhomeboundspecialneedspopulationarelessthanthe90 thpercentileETEfortheevacuationofthegeneralpopulationintheentireEPZ.8.6 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforSchoolsETEforschoolsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure8 1Figure8 1presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttoschoolevacuation.Theelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferen cetoFigure8 1.Activity:Mobilization(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveattheschooltobeevacuated.BasedoninformationprovidedbythecountyOEMs,mobilizationtimevariesfrom10to30minutesforbusdriverstobecontacted,totraveltothedepot(orreturntothebus),bebriefed,andtotraveltotheschooltobeevacuated.Mobilizationtimeis10minuteslongerforrainand20minuteslongerforice.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)Basedondiscussionswithoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof15minutes(20minutesforrainand25minutesforice)forschoolbusesisused.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)Schoolbusesarereadytobeingevacuationaftermobilizationandloadingarecomplete.Forexample,thebusesservicingtheschoolsintheDoverPublicSchoolDistrictarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat45minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-30minutesmobilizationtimeplus15minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusroutesalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriateschoolreceptioncenter.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.Eachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentoth eDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 5(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,25to45minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragesp eedforeachroute,asfollows:

ArkansasNuclearOne8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedscomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsintheEPZareshowninTable8 6throughTable8 8.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedistancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.Table8 6(goodweather),Table8 7(rain)andTable8 8(ice)presentevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)-theelapsedtimefromAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthebusexitstheEPZ-forschoolsintheEPZ.TheETEcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E.Forexample:25min.+15+9=0:50-roundeduptothenearest5minutes-forLondonElementary,withgoodweather).Table8 4indicatesthattherear esufficienttransportationresourcestoevacuatetheschoolsinasinglewave.TheaverageETEforschoolsarelessthanthe90 thpercentileETEfortheevacuationofthegeneralpopulationintheentireEPZ.

ArkansasNuclearOne8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1

Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter EBusExitsRegion Activity A B CMobilization C D PassengersBoardtheBus D E BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundaryFigure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time ArkansasNuclearOne8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesZoneSchoolNameEnrollmentBusesRequiredGLondonElementary1673HArkansasTechUniversity*6,7441HCommunityChristianSchool1042HDwightElementary2404HRussellvilleJuniorHighSchool77016HRussellvilleMiddleSchool80016HSequoyahElementary4677HStJohn'sCatholicSchool581HUpperElementary5thGrade3806IArkansasTechCareerCenter**6500IRussellvilleHighSchool***1,1503ICrawfordElementary4517IOaklandHeightsElementary4507JCenterValleyElementary3836LDoverHighSchool***4093LDoverMiddleSchool3507LDoverElementarySchool63610TDardanelleElementarySchool6229TDardanelleHighSchool***5343TDardanelleMiddleSchool2786TDardanellePrimarySchool4997TOTAL: 16,142124*Note:ThecurrentenrollmentfortheArkansasTechUniversityRussellvilleCampusis7,978.1,234ofthesestudentsareonlineonlystudents.Thus,thereare6,744students(7,978-1,234)oncampusatpeaktimes.2,557studentsliveinuniversityhousing.2,500studentswholiveinuniversityhousinghavevehicles.50%ofthosewithoutacarwillridesharewithafriend.Therefore29studentswillneedabustoevacuate.Thereare4,187commuters.315commuterslivewithin10milesoftheschool.Thosevehicleshavebeencountedwithgeneralpopulationvehiclestoavoiddoublecounting.**Note:Allstudentsdrivetothisfacilityinpersonalvehiclesandwouldevacuateinthosepersonalvehicles.Nobusesareneededtoevacuatethisfacility.***Note:Basedondiscussionswiththeoffsiteagencies,studentsathighschoolsintheEPZwillevacuateinpersonalvehiclesorstaffvehicles.Threebusesareassignedtoeachhighschoolasacontingencyplanintheeventtherearenotsufficientpersonalvehiclestoevacuateallstudentsandstaff.

ArkansasNuclearOne8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolReceptionCentersSchoolReceptionCenterLondonElementaryClarksvilleHighSchoolDoverHighSchoolHectorHighSchoolDoverMiddleSchoolDoverElementarySchoolArkansasTechUniversityMorriltonJuniorHighSchoolCommunityChristianSchoolDwightElementaryRussellvilleJuniorHighSchoolRussellvilleMiddleSchoolSequoyahElementaryStJohn'sCatholicSchoolUpperElementary5thGradeArkansasTechCareerCenterCrawfordElementaryOaklandHeightsElementaryRussellvilleHighSchoolCenterValleyElementaryDardanelleElementarySchoolDanvilleHighSchoolDardanelleHighSchoolDardanelleMiddleSchoolDardanellePrimarySchool ArkansasNuclearOne8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.MedicalFacilityCensusZoneFacilityNameMunicipalityCapacityCurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedriddenPOPECOUNTY,ARHLegacyHeightsNursing&Rehabilitation Russellville1227029401HRussellvilleNursingCenterRussellville1009310830HSt.Mary'sRegionalMedicalCenterRussellville17080194912HStellaManorNursingHomeRussellville12210630751PopeCountySubtotal: 3922798824714YELLCOUNTY,ARTRiverValleyMedicalCenterDardanelle2518648YellCountySubtotal:2518648TOTAL:5393679425122 ArkansasNuclearOne8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceCars BusesVansWheelchair BusesWheelchair VansAmbulances ResourcesAvailableParisSchoolDistrict17 1LoganCountyParisStation 2LoganCountyBoonevilleStation 2ClarksvilleSchools 30 LamarPublicSchools 233 ForresterDavisDevelopment 38 DardanellePublicSchools 25 ConwayCounty 455 StellaManorNursingHome1 RussellvilleNursingCenter1 PopeCountyEMS 11YellCountyEMS 3 YellCountySheriff'sDepartment211 TOTAL: 21146316115ResourcesNeededMedicalFacilities(Section8.3):Allmedicalfacilitiesshelter in placeCorrectionalFacilities(Section8.4):Allcorrectionalfacilitiesshelter in placeTransitDependentandHomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulation(Section8.5):5Schools(Table8 2):124TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS:51240000 ArkansasNuclearOne8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary16LondonElementary464,466,467,468,26,25,24,20,18,17,16,12,11,10,9, 1324,7,1318,1310,617ArkansasTechUniversity193,1241,190,110,111,114,115,117,749,1064,748, 41,42,4418CommunityChristianSchool95,1120,1253,1256,96,97,98,106,107,108,110,111, 114,115,117,749,1064,748,41,42,4419DwightElementary97,98,106,107,108,110,111,114,115,117,749,1064, 748,41,42,4420RussellvilleJuniorHighSchool1042,1301,96,97,98,106,107,108,110,111,114,115, 117,749,1064,748,41,42,4421RussellvilleMiddleSchool,UpperElementary5thGrade1204,1203,1304,98,106,107,108,110,111,114,115, 117,749,1064,748,41,42,4422SequoyahElementary1249,1255,1256,96,97,98,106,107,108,110,111, 114,115,117,749,1064,748,41,42,4423St.John'sCatholicSchool96,97,98,106,107,108,110,111,114,115,117,749, 1064,748,41,42,4424CrawfordElementary1126,1125,1029,1030,40,41,42,4425OaklandHeightsElementary1128,1085,1067,1086,110,111,114,115,117,749, 1064,748,41,42,4426CenterValleyElementary252,251,250,1031,1029,1030,40,41,42,4427DoverElementarySchool214,219,220,22728DoverMiddleSchool,DoverHighSchool213,214,219,220,22729DardanelleElementarySchool,DardanelleMiddleSchool,DardanelleHighSchool327,325,168,167,1279,166,162,158,154,153,15230DardanellePrimarySchool172,173,168,167,1279,166,162,158,154,153,15231RussellvilleHighSchool1227,623,1229,1129,1069,114,115,117,749,1064, 748,41,42,44,45,46,48,49,50,51,1344,1356,54 ArkansasNuclearOne8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)DistancetoEPZBoundary(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)POPECOUNTY,ARLondonElementary25159.266.990:50ArkansasTechUniversity30155.92.31483:20CommunityChristianSchool15157.07.81491:25DwightElementary10155.52.61272:35RussellvilleJuniorHighSchool10156.32.41573:05RussellvilleMiddleSchool10155.72.61332:40RussellvilleHighSchool10155.34.3741:40SequoyahElementary10156.62.41683:15St.John'sCatholicSchool30155.72.01373:35UpperElementary5thGrade10155.72.61332:40CrawfordElementary20154.511.2241:00OaklandHeightsElementary10155.83.01162:25CenterValleyElementary25156.726.9150:55DoverHighSchool30151.339.930:50DoverMiddleSchool30151.339.930:50DoverElementarySchool30151.142.920:50YELLCOUNTY,ARDardanelleElementarySchool15158.452.2100:40DardanelleHighSchool15158.452.2100:40DardanelleMiddleSchool15158.452.2100:40DardanellePrimarySchool15158.747.7110:45MaximumforEPZ:3:35AverageforEPZ:1:45 ArkansasNuclearOne8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-RainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)DistancetoEPZBoundary(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)POPECOUNTY,ARLondonElementary35209.260.0101:05ArkansasTechUniversity40205.92.31543:35CommunityChristianSchool25207.01.92214:30DwightElementary20205.52.11593:20RussellvilleJuniorHighSchool20206.31.92024:05RussellvilleMiddleSchool20205.72.11623:25RussellvilleHighSchool20205.32.41332:55SequoyahElementary20206.62.02044:05St.John'sCatholicSchool40205.71.91794:00UpperElementary5thGrade20205.72.11623:25CrawfordElementary30204.53.3812:15OaklandHeightsElementary20205.82.41493:10CenterValleyElementary35206.78.4481:45DoverHighSchool40201.35.6151:15DoverMiddleSchool40201.35.6151:15DoverElementarySchool40201.119.941:05YELLCOUNTY,ARDardanelleElementarySchool25208.443.8121:00DardanelleHighSchool25208.443.8121:00DardanelleMiddleSchool25208.443.8121:00DardanellePrimarySchool25208.723.1231:10MaximumforEPZ:4:30AverageforEPZ:2:30 ArkansasNuclearOne8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-IceSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)DistancetoEPZBoundary(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)POPECOUNTY,ARLondonElementary45259.252.8111:25ArkansasTechUniversity50257.41.72094:45CommunityChristianSchool35257.01.72475:10DwightElementary30255.52.01633:40RussellvilleJuniorHighSchool30256.31.92044:20RussellvilleMiddleSchool30255.72.01693:45RussellvilleHighSchool30255.31.71884:05SequoyahElementary30256.61.92104:25St.John'sCatholicSchool50255.71.62134:50UpperElementary5thGrade30 25 5.7 2.01693:45 CrawfordElementary40254.53.0902:35OaklandHeightsElementary30255.82.31503:25CenterValleyElementary45256.76.7612:15DoverHighSchool50251.36.8121:30DoverMiddleSchool50251.36.8121:30DoverElementarySchool50251.120.941:20YELLCOUNTY,ARDardanelleElementarySchool35258.434.5151:15DardanelleHighSchool35258.434.5151:15DardanelleMiddleSchool35258.434.5151:15DardanellePrimarySchool35258.720.0261:30MaximumforEPZ:5:10AverageforEPZ:2:55 ArkansasNuclearOne9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).* TrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.ThesedevicesshouldcomplywiththeguidanceoftheManualofUniformTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.AllstateandmostcountytransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisav ailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. Facilitat eevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Weemploytheterms"facilitate"and"discourage"ratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forex ample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandRBsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR 7002.2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment(seeFigures7 3through7 8).Thisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionstha texperiencepronouncedcongestion.AnycriticalintersectionsthatwouldbenefitfromtrafficoraccesscontrolwhicharenotalreadyidentifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandRBs ArkansasNuclearOne9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13. TheexistingTCPsandRBs,andhowtheywereappliedinthisstudy,arediscussedinAppendixG.4. PrioritizationofTCPsandRBs.ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandRBswillhaveamorepronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmovementsthanatotherTCPsandRBs.Forexample,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromth epowerplant.Theseprioritiesshouldbeassignedbystate/localemergencymanagementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.TheETEsimulationsdiscussedinSection7indica tethattheETEisdictatedbytheclearanceoftrafficcongestioninRussellville.TheevacuationroutesinRussellvilleareoversaturatedandexperiencepronouncedtrafficcongestionduringevacuationduetothelimitedcapacityoftheroadwaysandthelargevolumeofevacuatingtraffic.I 40,US 64,andStateRoutes7and124arethemostheavilyusedevacuat ionroutes.Therampstotheinterstatearesignificantbottlenecks.ThetrafficsignalsalongthestateandUSroutesarealsosignificantbottlenecks.NearlyallofthetrafficsignalsintheEPZareactuatedtrafficsignalsandwilladjusttheirtimingtochangingtrafficpatterns.Trafficcontrolatsignalizedintersectionswillnothaveapronouncedimpactontheevacuationprocessasmostoftheintersectionshavesignificantvolumeontheeastwestapproachesaswellasthenorth southapproaches(seeFigure7 4forseveralexa mples-intersectionofSR 7andUS 64;SR 7andUS 64;SR 331andI 40;SR 331andUS 64;etc.).Thus,noadditionalTCPsorRBsaredeemednecessaryasaresultofthisstudy.TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPorRBloca tionsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.Chapters2Nand5G,andPart6ofthe2009MUTCDareparticularlyrelevantandshouldbereviewedduringemergencyresponsetraining.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"externalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter2hourshaveelapsedfromtheATE.Allschoolbuses,policecruisersandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningRBsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussRBandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.

ArkansasNuclearOne10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromazonebeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsuchawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1mapsthegeneralpopulationandschoolreceptioncentersforevacuees.ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 2Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriatereceptioncenterandsubsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transitdependentevacueesaretransportedtothenearestreceptioncenterforeachcounty.Thisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.

ArkansasNuclearOne10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationandSchoolReceptionCenters ArkansasNuclearOne10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.EvacuationRouteMap APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms ArkansasNuclearOneA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red.

ArkansasNuclearOneA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.

APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel ArkansasNuclearOneB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost".OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestin ationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.

ArkansasNuclearOneB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel ArkansasNuclearOneB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a=

ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.

ArkansasNuclearOneB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepres entsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

ArkansasNuclearOneB 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?

Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel ArkansasNuclearOneC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics ArkansasNuclearOneC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network ArkansasNuclearOneC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks ArkansasNuclearOneC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 80078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx ArkansasNuclearOneC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.

ArkansasNuclearOneC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams ArkansasNuclearOneC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp ArkansasNuclearOneC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelengthofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.

ArkansasNuclearOneC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength.

ArkansasNuclearOneC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.

ArkansasNuclearOneC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.

ArkansasNuclearOneC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,.

Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:

ArkansasNuclearOneC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm ArkansasNuclearOneC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.

ArkansasNuclearOneC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes ArkansasNuclearOneC 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.

APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure ArkansasNuclearOneD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.EmployeedatawereestimatedusingtheU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsinteractiv ewebsite 1 ,anddatafromthecountyemergencymanagementoffices.Transientdataandinformationconcerningschools,medicalandothertypesofspecialfacilitieswithintheEPZwereprovidedbycountyemergencymanagementoffices.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateandlocalemergencymanagers,on siteandoff siteutilityemergencymanagers,locallawenforcementagencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specif icrequestsforinformationwerepresentedtolocalemergencymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.1 http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/

ArkansasNuclearOneD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredtoperformpre evacuationmobilizationactivities.Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto15Zones.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofZones)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.

ArkansasNuclearOneD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperien cetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakema nyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputst reammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thenth eprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandschoolsareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingforschoolbusesisintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroute specificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentandschoolpopulationgroups.

ArkansasNuclearOneD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset.Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitdependentrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,homeboundspecialneedspeople,andschools.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.

ArkansasNuclearOneD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXESpecialFacilityData ArkansasNuclearOneE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. SPECIALFACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofAugust2012,forspecialfacilitiesthatarelocatedwithintheArkansasNuclearOneEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,hospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities,andcorrectionalfacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforcampgrounds,recrea tionalareasandlodgingfacilities.Employmentdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Eachtableisgroupedbycounty.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,medicalfacility,correctionalfacility,campground,recreationalarea,lodgingfacility,andmajoremployerarealsoprovided.

ArkansasNuclearOneE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnrollmentStaffPOPECOUNTY,ARG1.9NNWLondonElementary154SchoolStLondon479239424116735H5.7EArkansasTechUniversity

1605ColiseumDrRussellville80058269536,744898H3.7ESECommunityChristianSchool201EGStRussellville47996814291048H5.3ESEDwightElementary1300W2ndPlaceRussellville479968396724032H4.8ESERussellvilleJuniorHighSchool2000WParkwayDrRussellville479968159977060H5.5ESERussellvilleMiddleSchool1203W4thPlaceRussellville479968255780060H5.5ESESequoyahElementary1601W12thStRussellville479968213446735H5.0ESESt.John'sCatholicSchool1912WMainStRussellville47996746445814H5.5ESEUpperElementary5thGrade1203W4thPlaceRussellville479968265038035I7.2ESEArkansasTechCareerCenter**2201SKnoxvilleAveRussellville479968542265020I6.3ESECrawfordElementary1116ParkerRdRussellville479967162445135I6.6ESEOaklandHeightsElementary1501SouthDetroitAveRussellville479968208445052I7.4ESERussellvilleHighSchool***2203SKnoxvilleAveRussellville47996831511,15070J8.4ECenterValleyElementary5401SR124Russellville479968454038356L8.8NEDoverHighSchool***101PiratesLoopDover479331221940940L9.0NEDoverMiddleSchool135CollegeStDover479331221935035L9.8NEDoverElementarySchool75PineHillRdDover479331270263640PopeCountySubtotals:14,2091,525YELLCOUNTY,ART8.3SSEDardanelleElementarySchool2306N.StateHwy7Dardanelle479229370762263T8.3SSEDardanelleHighSchool***1079NStateHwy28Dardanelle479229465553465T8.3SSEDardanelleMiddleSchool2032NStateHwy7Dardanelle479229455027834T7.1SSEDardanellePrimarySchool900S4thStDardanelle479229418549958YellCountySubtotals:1,933220TOTAL:16,1421,745*Note:Thereareatotalof6,744studentsattendingArkansasTechUniversity.4,187arecommutersand315commuterslivewithin10milesoftheUniversity.Thereareatotalof6,372studentsthathavesimilartravelpatternsastransients.SeeSection3.3foradditionalinformation.**Note:Allstudentsdrivetothisfacilityinpersonalvehiclesandwouldevacuateinthosepersonalvehicles.Nobusesareneededtoevacuatethisfacility.***Note:Basedondiscussionswiththeoffsiteagencies,studentsathighschoolsintheEPZwillevacuateinpersonalvehiclesorstaffvehicles.Threebusesareassignedtoeachhighschoolasacontingencyplanintheeventtherearenotsufficientpersonalvehiclestoevacuateallstudentsandstaff.

ArkansasNuclearOneE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCapacity CurrentCensusAmbulatoryPatientsWheel chairPatientsBedriddenPatients POPECOUNTY,AR H5.8ESELegacyHeightsNursingHomeandRehabilitation900W12 thStRussellville47996858581227029401H3.8ESERussellvilleNursingCenter215SPortlandAveRussellville47996852561009310830H5.1ESESt.Mary'sRegionalMedicalCenter1808WMainStRussellville479968284117080194912H4.8ESEStellaManorNursingHome400NVancouverAveRussellville479968414112210630751PopeCountySubtotals:514349 88247 14 YELLCOUNTY,AR T7.6SERiverValleyMedicalCenter200N3rdStDardanelle47922946772518648YellCountySubtotals:

25 18 6 4 8TOTAL:539367 94251 22 ArkansasNuclearOneE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTotalEmployeesEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees(Non EPZ)POPECOUNTY,AR*GArkansasNuclearOne1448SR33Russellville47985850001,05790020.0%180PopeCountySubtotals:1,057900180YELLCOUNTY,ART7.6SERiverValleyMedicalCenter200N3rdStDardanelle47922946771605558.3%32T7.6SSETysonFoodsInc.II1291NHwy7Dardanelle479229871597852165.0%339T7.4SSEWal MartSupercenter1172NHwy7Dardanelle47922925022106060.0%36YellCountySubtotals:1,348636407TOTAL:2,4051,536587*Note:TheremainderoftheemployeesworkinginthePopeCountyportionoftheEPZwerecalculatedusingtheU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsinteractivewebsite.SeeSection3.4foradditionalinformation.

ArkansasNuclearOneE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.CampgroundswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesPOPECOUNTY,ARG2.5ENEMissionRVPark229MissionDrRussellville47996735768045H2.8SELakeDardanelleStatePark100StateParkDrRussellville47996755169246J8.6ESEIvysCoveRVRetreat321BradleyCoveRdRussellville47928016621515J5.4EOutdoorLivingCenterRVPark&Storage10OutdoorPlRussellville479968770515075M6.6NHillbillyHavenRVPark9688Arkansas333Dover47974703972412PopeCountySubtotals:361193JOHNSONCOUNTY,ARP7.7NWPineyBayCampground114PrivateRd2720London4798853029455182JohnsonCountySubtotals:455182YELLCOUNTY,ARS6.3SSWMountNeboStatePark40232WStateHwy155Dardanelle47922936507457T5.9SERiverviewRecreationAreaSecondStDardanelle50134017483624YellCountySubtotals:11081TOTAL:926456 ArkansasNuclearOneE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesPOPECOUNTY,ARH5.7EArkansasTechUniversity*1605ColiseumDrRussellville80058269536,3726,223H5.8SEDamSitePublicUseArea1598LockandDamRdRussellville4799685008700300H2.8SELakeDardanelleStatePark100StateParkDrRussellville4799675516697321H5.8ESEMainStreetRussellville320WestCStRussellville4799671437106H2.1SERussellvilleMarina330BeachRdRussellville479967154333PopeCountySubtotals:7,7826,853JOHNSONCOUNTY,ARP7.7NWPineyBayRecreationArea189PrivateRd2720London479885302914587JohnsonCountySubtotals:14587YELLCOUNTY,ARS6.3SSWMountNeboStatePark40232WStateHwy155Dardanelle4792293655481171T5.9SERiverviewRecreationAreaSecondStDardanelle50134017483015U3.7SSELionsDenGolfCourse11044BayRidgeDrDardanelle47922941621713YellCountySubtotals:528199TOTAL:8,4557,139*Note:Thereareatotalof7.978studentsattendingArkansasTechUniversity;1,234ofthesestudentsareonlineonlystudents,accordingtoadministrativepersonnelatATU.Atotalof4,187studentsarecommutersand315ofthosecommuterslivewithin10milesoftheuniversity.These315studentsarealreadycountedaspermanentresidents.Itisassumedthatcommutingstudentshavesimilarcarpoolinghabitstoemployees,so1.04commutingstudentspervehicleisused.4,187315=3,872commuters;3,872÷1.04=3,723commutervehicles.2,557studentsliveinuniversityhousingand2,500bringavehicletoschool.Allstudentslivingoncampuswhohaveacaroncampuswillusetheirpersonalvehiclestoevacuate.Thereare57studentswhodonothaveacaroncampus.Itisassumedthat50%ofthesestudentswillridesharewithafriend.Theremaining29studentswhodonothaveacaroncamp uswillevacuatebybus.Thereare6,372studentstreatedastransients(3,872commuters+2,500studentswithcarsoncampus=6,372).Thetotalnumberoftransientvehiclesequals6,223(3,723+2,500).SeeSection3.3foradditionalinformation.

ArkansasNuclearOneE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 6.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesPOPECOUNTY,ARH5.2EAmericasBestValueInn204LakeFrontDrRussellville47996855118020H5.3EBrookfieldInn2407NArkansasAveRussellville47996843008844H5.2EDaysInn204LakeFrontDrRussellville479968140416254H5.3EHawthornParkInn&Suites2407NArkansasAveRussellville4799684300315105H4.5ESEParkMotelRussellville2615WMainStRussellville47996848621919I5.4EBestWesternInn2326NArkansasAveRussellville479967100021070I6.8ESEBudgetInn1206MainStRussellville47996849593636I7.7ESEComfortInn&Suites2714ParkwayDrRussellville47996824245656I5.5EDaysInn&Suites109EHarrellDrRussellville47928019404848I5.4EEconomyInn2200NArkansasAveRussellville47996844005628I5.5EFairfieldInn&Suites120EHarrellDrRussellville479967903013545I5.4EHamptonInn2304NArkansasAveRussellville47985871996666I5.4ELaQuintaInn&Suites111EHarrellDrRussellville479967229920451I8.0ESEQualityInn3019EParkwayDrRussellville479967750022857I6.8ESERelaxInn1320MainStRussellville47996863329624I5.4ESuper8Russellville2404NArkansasAveRussellville88828850814141I7.1ESEWoody'sClassicInn1522EMainStRussellville47996877746321J5.6EEconoLodge154EAspenLnRussellville479968720014147J5.2EMotel6Russellville215WBirchStRussellville479968366613634PopeCountySubtotals:2,180866YELLCOUNTY,ART5.4EEconomyInn1032NStateHwy7Dardanelle479229411818492YellCountySubtotals:18492TOTAL:2,364958 ArkansasNuclearOneE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 7.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCap acityYELLCOUNTY,AR I7.3ESEPopeCountyJail#10CountyComplexCircleRussellville4799682558180 T7.4SEYellCountySheriff'sDept.106UnionSt Dardanelle4792294175 14 YellCountySubtotals:194TOTAL:194 ArkansasNuclearOneE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ ArkansasNuclearOneE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ ArkansasNuclearOneE 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ ArkansasNuclearOneE 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.CampgroundswithintheEPZ ArkansasNuclearOneE 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ ArkansasNuclearOneE 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 6.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ ArkansasNuclearOneE 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 7.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZRussellville ArkansasNuclearOneE 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 8.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ APPENDIXFTelephoneSurvey ArkansasNuclearOneF 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F. TELEPHONESURVEYF.1 IntroductionThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesfortheArkansasNuclearOneEPZrequirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseverallimitationswhenappliedtoemergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneededtoidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,CensusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlyma ynotaccuratelyrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.TheseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleoftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerningfamilydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthesurveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheform"Whatwouldyoudoif-?"andotherquestionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar("Howlongdoesittakeyouto-?")

ArkansasNuclearOneF 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlanAttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthesurveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeofapproximately500completedsurveyformsyi eldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4.3%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alistofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF 1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlayingCensusdataandtheEPZboundary,againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsforeachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF 1.NotethattheaveragehouseholdsizecomputedinTableF 1wasanestimateforsamplingpurposesandwasnotusedintheETEstudy.ThesurveywasalsoconductedinSpanishtoaccountfortheSpanishspeakingpopulation(15%)withinYellCounty.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.TableF 1.ArkansasNuclearOneTelephoneSurveySamplingPlanZipCodePopulationwithinEPZ(2010)*HouseholdsRequiredSample7280119,5047,1071777280216,1056,181154728348,2533,02175728358233589728374,2061,66742728451,202480127284698238610728471,87473918728513010172858242912Total53,22120,040500AverageHouseholdSize: 2.66TotalSampleRequired: 500*TheEPZboundarywasdigitizedinGISearlyintheprojectfromapapermapinordertodevelopthesamplingplan.Later,theboundarywasrefinedaccountingforthesmall(0.7%)differenceinEPZpopulationrelativetoTable3 1.

ArkansasNuclearOneF 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3 SurveyResultsTheresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsoftheareacanbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobileownership,andautomobileavailability.Thedistributionsofthetimetoperformcertainpre evacuationactivitiesarethesecondcategoryofsurveyresults.Thesedataareprocessedtodevelopthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedinSection5.Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshavea"don'tknow"(DK)or"refused"entryforaresponse.Itisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthi stypetoaccepttheanswersofarespondentwhooffersaDKresponseforafewquestionsorwhorefusestoanswerafewquestions.ToaddresstheissueofoccasionalDK/refusedresponsesfromalargesample,thepracticeistoassumethatthedistributionoftheseresponsesisthesameasth eunderlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDK/refusedresponsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResultsHouseholdSizeFigureF 1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ.Theaveragehouseholdcontains2.17people.Theestimatedhouseholdsize(2.66people)usedtodeterminethesurveysample(TableF 1)wasdrawnfromCensusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthetelephonesurveyiswelloutsidethesamplingerrorof4.3%.Furtheranalysisofthere sultsindicatesthattheaverageageofthoserespondingtothehouseholdsizequestionwas65yearsold.Atthisage,mostmarriedcoupleslivealonewithchildrenhavingmovedoutandstartedtheirownfamilies.Thisexplainswhytheresultsarecloserto2peopleperhouseholdthanthe2.66peopleperhouseholdpredictedbytheCensus.Theloweraverag ehouseholdsize(2.17people)isconservative,resultinginmorehouseholdsandmoreevacuatingvehicles.AppendixM,TableM 3explorestheeffectsonETEofadecreaseinpopulation,whichiscomparabletoincreasingtheaveragehouseholdsizeasbothwillresultinfewerevacuatingvehicles.

ArkansasNuclearOneF 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZAutomobileOwnershipTheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis1.98.Itshouldbenotedthatapproximately5percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF 2.FigureF 3andFigureF 4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.Notethatthevastmajorityofhouseholdswithoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2ormorepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability0%10%20%30%40%50%60%12345678910+

%ofHouseholds HouseholdSize ANOHouseholdSize 0%10%20%30%40%50%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehicles ANOVehicleAvailability ArkansasNuclearOneF 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9PersonHouseholds0%20%40%

60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 1 5PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 0%20%40%60%80%100%12345678910

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 6 9+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People ArkansasNuclearOneF 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RidesharingTheoverwhelmingproportion(81%)ofthehouseholdssurveyedwhodonotownavehiclerespondedthattheywouldsharearidewithaneighbor,relative,orfriendifacarwasnotavailabletothemwhenadvisedtoevacuateintheeventofanemergency.Note,however,thatonlythosehouseholdswithnoaccesstoaveh icle-27totaloutofthesamplesizeof500-answeredthisquestion.Thus,theresultsarenotstatisticallysignificant.Assuch,theNRCrecommendationof50%ridesharingisusedforATUoncampusstudentswithoutapersonalvehicle.FigureF 5presentsthisresponse.FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds ANORidesharewithNeighbor/Friend ArkansasNuclearOneF 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommutersFigureF 6presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashowsanaverageof0.70commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ,and45%ofhouseholdshaveatleastonecommuter.FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01234+%ofHouseholds NumberofCommuters ANOCommuters ArkansasNuclearOneF 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommuterTravelModesFigureF 7presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.04employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZF.3.2 EvacuationResponseSeveralquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulation'sresponsetoanemergency.Thesearenowdiscussed:"Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?"TheresponseisshowninFigureF 8.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.30vehicles."Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?"Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,44percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembersbeforeevacuatingand56percentindicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembers."Ifyouhadahouseholdpet,howmanyofthemwouldyoutakewithyou?"Basedontheresponsestothesurvey,65percentofhouseholdsownapet.Ofthosehouseholdswhoownapet,16percentofhouseholdswouldnottaketheirpetwiththem,42percentwouldtake1petwiththem,24percentwouldtake2pets,and18percentwouldtake3ormorepets,asshowninFigureF 9.1.8%94.1%4.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%Walk/BikeDriveAloneCarpool(2+)%ofCommuters ModeofTravel ANOTravelModetoWork ArkansasNuclearOneF 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuationFigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVehiclesUsedforEvacuation 0%20%40%

60%80%100%TakeNoPetsTake1PetTake2PetsTake3+Pets%ofHouseholds HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets ArkansasNuclearOneF 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationregardingcompliancewithinstructionstoshelterinplace.Theresultsindicatethat75percentofhouseholdswhoareadvisedtoshelterinplacewoulddoso;theremaining25percentwouldchoosetoevacuateth earea.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.Thus,thedataobtainedthroughthesurveyissignificantlyhigherthanthefederalguidancerecommendation.Asensitivitystudywasconductedtoestimateth eimpactofshadowevacuation(non complianceofshelteradvisory)onETE-seeTableM 2inAppendixM."Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationspecificallyrelatedtothepossibilityofastagedevacuation.Thatis,askingapopulationtoshelterinplacenowandthentoevacu ateafteraspecifiedperiodoftime.Resultsindicatethat65percentofhouseholdswouldfollowinstructionsanddelaythestartofevacuationuntilsoadvised,whileth ebalanceof35percentwouldchoosetobeginevacuatingimmediately.F.3.3 TimeDistributionResultsThesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuationactivities.Theseactivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheirday to daylives.Th us,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftheresponder'sexperience.ThemobilizationdistributionsprovidedbelowaretheresultofhavingappliedtheanalysisdescribedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization.

ArkansasNuclearOneF 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?"FigureF 10presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedby75minutes.91percentcanleavewithin30minutes.FigureF10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School"Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?"FigureF 11presentstheworktohometraveltimefortheEPZ.93percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithin30minutesofleavingwork;allwithin60minutes.FigureF11.WorktoHomeTravelTime0%20%40%60%80%100%01020304050607080

%ofCommuters PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%010203040506070

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)WorktoHomeTravel ArkansasNuclearOneF 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?"FigureF 12presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthisactivitymimicsafamily'spreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.ThedistributionshowninFigureF 12hasalong"tail."91percentofhouseholdscanbereadytoleavehomewithin60minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditionalhourandfifteenminutes.FigureF12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuationF.4 ConclusionsThetelephonesurveyprovidesvaluable,relevantdataassociatedwiththeEPZpopulation,whichhavebeenusedtoquantifydemographicsspecifictotheEPZ,and"mobilizationtime"whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150

%ofHouseholds PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome ArkansasNuclearOneF 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ATTACHMENTATelephoneSurveyInstrument ArkansasNuclearOneF 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TelephoneSurveyInstrumentHello,mynameis___________andI'mworkingforFirstMarketResearchonasurveyforlocalemergencymanagementagenciestoidentifylocalbehaviorduringemergencysituations.Thisinformationwillbeusedforemergencyplanningandwillbesharedwithlocalofficialstoenhanceemergencyresponseplansinyourareaforallhazards;emergencyplanningforsomehazardsmayrequireevacuation.Yourresponseswillgreatlycontributetolocalemergencypreparedness.Iwillnotaskforyournameandthesurveyshalltakenomorethan10minutestocomplete.COL.1Unused COL.2Unused COL.3Unused COL.4Unused COL.5Unused SexCOL.81Male2FemaleINTERVIEWER:ASKTOSPEAKTOTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLDORTHESPOUSEOFTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLD.(Terminatecallifnotaresidence.)

DONOTASK:1A.Recordareacode.ToBeDeterminedCOL.9 111B.Recordexchangenumber.ToBeDeterminedCOL.12 142.Whatisyourhomezipcode?COL.15 193A.Intotal,howmanyrunningcars,orotherrunningvehiclesareusuallyavailabletothehousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.20 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIX7SEVEN8EIGHT9NINEORMORE0ZERO(NONE)XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.3BQ.3B3B.Inanemergency,couldyougetarideoutoftheareawithaneighbororfriend?COL.211YES2NOXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED4.Howmanypeopleusuallyliveinthishousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.22 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIXCOL.230TEN1ELEVEN2TWELVE3THIRTEEN4FOURTEEN5FIFTEEN ArkansasNuclearOneF 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17SEVEN 8EIGHT9NINE6SIXTEEN7SEVENTEEN8EIGHTEEN9NINETEENORMOREXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED5.Howmanyadultsinthehouseholdcommutetoajob,ortocollegeonadailybasis?COL.24 0ZERO1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOURORMORE5DON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.9Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.9INTERVIEWER:ForeachpersonidentifiedinQuestion5,askQuestions6,7,and8.6.Thinkingaboutcommuter#1,howdoesthatpersonusuallytraveltoworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)Commuter#1 COL.25Commuter#2 COL.26Commuter#3COL.27Commuter#4 COL.28Rail1 1 1 1Bus2 2 2 2Walk/Bicycle3 3 3 3DriveAlone4 4 4 4Carpool 2ormorepeople5 5 5 5Don'tknow/Refused6 6 6 6 7.Howmuchtimeonaverage,wouldittakeCommuter#1totravelhomefromworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.29COL.30COL.31 COL.3215MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES ArkansasNuclearOneF 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.33COL.34COL.35 COL.3615MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED8.ApproximatelyhowmuchtimedoesittakeCommuter#1tocompletepreparationforleavingworkorcollegepriortostartingthetriphome?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.37COL.38COL.39 COL.4015MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES ArkansasNuclearOneF 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.41COL.42COL.43 COL.4415MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED9.Ifyouwereadvisedbylocalauthoritiestoevacuate,howmuchtimewouldittakethehouseholdtopackclothing,medications,securethehouse,loadthecar,andcompletepreparationspriortoevacuatingthearea?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.45COL.46 1LESSTHAN15MINUTES13HOURSTO3HOURS15MINUTES215 30MINUTES23HOURS16MINUTESTO3HOURS30MINUTES 331 45MINUTES33HOURS31MINUTESTO3HOURS45MINUTES 446MINUTES-1HOUR43HOURS46MINUTESTO4HOURS51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES54HOURSTO4HOURS15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES64HOURS16MINUTESTO4HOURS30MINUTES ArkansasNuclearOneF 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.171HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES74HOURS31MINUTESTO4HOURS45MINUTES 81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS84HOURS46MINUTESTO5HOURS92HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES95HOURSTO5HOURS30MINUTES02HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES05HOURS31MINUTESTO6HOURSX2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES XOVER6HOURS(SPECIFY_______)Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSCOL.471 DON'TKNOW/REFUSED10.Pleasechooseoneofthefollowing(READANSWERS):Ifyouwereathomeandwereaskedtoevacuate,A.Iwouldawaitthereturnofhouseholdcommuterstoevacuatetogether.B.Iwouldevacuateindependentlyandmeetotherhouseholdmemberslater.COL.50 1A2BXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED 11.Howmanyvehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.511ONE2 TWO3 THREE4FOUR5 FIVE6 SIX7SEVEN8 EIGHT9 NINEORMORE0 ZERO(NONE)X DON'TKNOW/REFUSED12A.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.52 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED 12B.EmergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuateCOL.53 1A 2B ArkansasNuclearOneF 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1laterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATEXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED 13.Ifyouhaveahouseholdpet,howmanyofthemwouldyoutakewithyouif youwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?(READANSWERS)COL.54 0WOULDNOTTAKEPET1WOULDTAKEONEPET2WOULDTAKETWOPETS3WOULDTAKEMORETHAN2PETSXDONOTHAVEAPETYDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDThankyouverymuch._______________________________(TELEPHONENUMBERCALLED)

IFREQUESTED:Foradditionalinformation,contactyourCountyEmergencyManagementAgencyduringnormalbusinesshours.CountyEMAPhone Johnson(479)7546383Logan(479)9633218Pope(479)9681800Yell(479)2291359 APPENDIXGTrafficManagementPlan ArkansasNuclearOneG 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLANNUREG/CR 7002indicatesthattheexistingTCPsandRBsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesshouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwereprovidedbyeachcounty.TheseplanswerereviewedandtheTCPsandRBsweremodeledaccordingly.G.1 TrafficControlPointsAsdiscussedinSect ion9,trafficcontrolpointsatintersections(whicharecontrolled)aremodeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapre timedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasatrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypewaschangedtoanactuatedsignalintheDYNE VIIsystem.TableK 2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumberforthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.IftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeingaTCP,thecontroltypeisindicatedas"TrafficControlPoint"inTableK 2.AsdiscussedinSection9,thereissignificanttrafficcongestionincompetingdirections(eas t westandnorth south)atintersectionswithinthepopulationcentersoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Assigningpoliceofficerstoperformtrafficcontrolattheseintersectionswillhavenobenefitduetotheheavycongestionalongcompetingap proaches.ThemainthoroughfareonInterstate 40isoperatingatLOSFforseveralhours,asshowninFigures7 3through7 8.Positioningpoliceofficersatrampstofacilitateaccesstotheseinterstateroadwayswouldhaveminimalbenefitasthemainthoroughfareisalreadyheavilycongested.G.2 RoadblocksItisassumedthatRBswillbeestablishedwithin2hoursoftheadvisorytoevacuat etodiscouragethroughtravelersfromusingmajorthroughrouteswhichtraversetheEPZ.AsdiscussedinSection3.6,externaltrafficwasonlyconsideredonthreerouteswhichtraversetheEPZ-Interstate40,SR 7andSR 22-inthisan alysis.Thegenerationoftheseexternaltripsceasedat2hoursaftertheadvisorytoevacuateinthesimulation.FigureG 1mapstheexistingTCPsandRBsidentifiedinthecountyemergencyplans.TheTCPsandRBsarelocatedonroadwayswhichgiveaccesstotheEPZandtothe5 mileregion.Thes eintersectionswouldbemannedduringevacuationbytrafficguideswhowouldrestrictunauthorizedaccessintopotentiallyhazardousareasandhelpfacilitatetheflowofevacueetrafficoutoftheareaatrisk.AsdiscussedinSection9,noadditionalTCPsorRBsaredeemednecessaryasaresultofthisstudy.

ArkansasNuclearOneG 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsandRoadblocksfortheANOSite APPENDIXHEvacuationRegions ArkansasNuclearOneH 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1H EVACUATIONREGIONSThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH 1)andmapsofallEvacuationRegions.ThepercentagespresentedinTableH 1arebasedonthemethodologydiscussedinassumption5ofSection2.2andshowninFigure2 1.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhousehol dswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.

ArkansasNuclearOneH 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableH 1.PercentofZonePopulationEvacuatingforEachRegionRegionDescriptionZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR012 MileRing100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R025 MileRing100%100%20%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%100%20%20%100%R03FullEPZ100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Evacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR04N100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R05NNE,NE,ENE100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%100%R06E,ESE100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%R07SE,SSE100%20%20%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%R08S100%20%20%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R09SSW,SW100%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R10WSW,W100%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R11WNW100%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R12NW,NNW100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%Evacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR13N100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%R14NNE,NE,ENE100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%100%R15E,ESE100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%R16SE,SSE,S100%20%20%20%100%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%R17SSW100%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R18SW100%20%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R19WSW100%100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%

ArkansasNuclearOneH 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Evacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary(cont.)RegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR20W100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R21WNW100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R22NW100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%R23NNW100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ZoneGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUR245 MileRing100%100%20%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%100%20%20%100%R25N100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R26NNE,NE,ENE100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%100%R27E,ESE100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%R28SE,SSE100%20%20%20%100%20%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%R29S100%20%20%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R30SSW,SW100%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R31WSW,W100%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R32WNW100%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R33NW,NNW100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%Zone(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateZone(s)Shelter in PlaceZone(s)Evacuate ArkansasNuclearOneH 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 1.RegionR01 ArkansasNuclearOneH 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 2.RegionR02 ArkansasNuclearOneH 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 3.RegionR03 ArkansasNuclearOneH 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 4.RegionR04 ArkansasNuclearOneH 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 5.RegionR05 ArkansasNuclearOneH 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 6.RegionR06 ArkansasNuclearOneH 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 7.RegionR07 ArkansasNuclearOneH 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 ArkansasNuclearOneH 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 9.RegionR09 ArkansasNuclearOneH 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH10.RegionR10 ArkansasNuclearOneH 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH11.RegionR11 ArkansasNuclearOneH 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH12.RegionR12 ArkansasNuclearOneH 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH13.RegionR13 ArkansasNuclearOneH 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH14.RegionR14 ArkansasNuclearOneH 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH15.RegionR15 ArkansasNuclearOneH 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH16.RegionR16 ArkansasNuclearOneH 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH17.RegionR17 ArkansasNuclearOneH 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH18.RegionR18 ArkansasNuclearOneH 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH19.RegionR19 ArkansasNuclearOneH 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH20.RegionR20 ArkansasNuclearOneH 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH21.RegionR21 ArkansasNuclearOneH 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH22.RegionR22 ArkansasNuclearOneH 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH23.RegionR23 ArkansasNuclearOneH 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH24.RegionR24 ArkansasNuclearOneH 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH25.RegionR25 ArkansasNuclearOneH 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH26.RegionR26 ArkansasNuclearOneH 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH27.RegionR27 ArkansasNuclearOneH 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH28.RegionR28 ArkansasNuclearOneH 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH29.RegionR29 ArkansasNuclearOneH 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH30.RegionR30 ArkansasNuclearOneH 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH31.RegionR31 ArkansasNuclearOneH 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH32.RegionR32 ArkansasNuclearOneH 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH33.RegionR33 APPENDIXJRepresentativeInputstoandOutputsfromtheDYNEVIISystem ArkansasNuclearOneJ 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEMThisappendixpresentsdatainputtoandoutputfromtheDYNEVIISystem.TableJ 1providesthevolumeandqueuesforthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsinthestudyarea.RefertoTableK 2andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachintersection.TableJ 2providessource(vehicleloading)anddestinationinformationforseveralroadwaysegments(links)intheanalysisnetwork.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.TableJ 3providesnetwork-widestatistics(averagetraveltime,averagespeedandnumberofvehicles)foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)foreachscenario.Scenario14,whichistheroadwayimpact,exhibitsasloweraveragespeedthancomparableScenario1.Scenario13(specialevent)alsoexhibitsasloweraveragespeedthancomparableScenario9.TableJ 4pr ovidesstatistics(averagespeedandtraveltime)forthemajorevacuationroutes-Interstate 40,SR 22andSR 7-foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.AsdiscussedinSection7.3andshowninFigures7 3through7 8,I 40eastboundiscongestedformostoftheevacuation.Assuch,theaveragespeedsarecomparablyslower(andtraveltimeslonger)thanotherevacuationroutes.TableJ 5providesthenumberofvehiclesdischargedandthecumulativepercentoftotalvehiclesdischargedforeachlinkexitingtheanalysisnetwork,foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapsh owingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.FigureJ 1throughFigureJ 14plotthetripgenerationtimeversustheETEforeachofthe14Scenariosconsidered.ThedistancebetweenthetripgenerationandETEcurvesisthetraveltime.PlotsoftripgenerationversusETEareindicativeoftheleveloftrafficcongestionduringevacuation.Forlowpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesareclosetogether,indicatingshorttraveltimesandminimaltrafficcongestion.Forhigherpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesarefartherapartindicatinglongertraveltimesandthepresenceoftrafficcongestion.AsseeninFigureJ 1throughFigureJ 14,thecurvesarespatiallyseparatedasaresultofthetrafficcongestionintheEPZ,whichwasdiscussedindetailinSectio n7.3.

ArkansasNuclearOneJ 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersectionsNodeLocationIntersectionControlApproach (UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)110US 64&SR 7ActuatedSignal1111,638510861,98281190618551084,45679TOTAL8,694126US 64&SR247BypassActuatedSignal1257,59510113306075115013291,01523TOTAL8,631749US 64&SR331ActuatedSignal10761,672291174,74039010641,827486TOTAL8,239190SR 7&EParkwayDrActuatedSignal1241749121105,48415510481,5334610892875TOTAL8,053117US 64&NElmiraAve/SR 331ActuatedSignal6111,95912274987701154,11191011600TOTAL6,947115US 64&SR326ActuatedSignal1144,00777310621,1118091171,81814TOTAL6,936193SR 7&SR 124ActuatedSignal112754510212415,10241010346051412991272TOTAL6,379 ArkansasNuclearOneJ 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeLocationIntersectionControlApproach (UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)96US 64&PhoenixAveActuatedSignal12563,899419971,47631301196921245579235TOTAL6,150108US 64&CommerceAveActuatedSignal1101,47431073,57263104863848108824410TOTAL5,928114US 64&KnoxvilleAveActuatedSignal1151,637050573743210691,1532931111,756440TOTAL5,283 ArkansasNuclearOneJ 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInputLinkNumberVehiclesEnteringNetworkonthisLinkDirectionalPreferenceDestination NodesDestinationCapacity104139NW80521,70083231,70080034,500715173E80514,50080081,70083491,3501010178SE80514,50080081,70083491,350777387E80081,70080514,50089871,700107483SE80514,50080081,70083491,35088968NE83471,70089871,700858154W89001,70067343S80011,70080061,70080071,70043226E80081,70080514,50083471,700742172E80081,70080514,50089871,700 ArkansasNuclearOneJ 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)Scenario1234567Network WideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)3.74.13.23.43.34.24.6Network WideAverageSpeed(mph)16.214.819.017.718.314.413.0TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork53,03952,93144,20244,31539,63259,46159,523Scenario891011121314Network WideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)5.33.13.43.73.33.25.2Network WideAverageSpeed(mph)11.319.617.916.118.518.911.5TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork59,93242,78442,88543,01238,30744,74551,958TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)ElapsedTime(hours)12345Route#Length(miles)Speed(mph)TravelTime(min)Speed Travel TimeSpeed Travel TimeSpeed TravelTimeSpeed Travel TimeSR 22EB18.022.947.152.420.654.819.756.419.156.419.1SR 7NB18.053.420.253.520.248.822.156.419.156.419.1I 40EB20.657.821.439.731.242.529.167.418.470.017.7I 40WB20.670.017.770.017.762.819.770.017.770.017.7 ArkansasNuclearOneJ 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1NetworkExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)12345CumulativeVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTimeCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTime1864941,8441,9861,9931,9935%7%5%4%4%3295061,3171,5781,5801,5805%5%4%3%3%3528592,1763,1773,2363,2369%8%8%7%6%3794761,2201,5551,5801,5805%5%4%3%3%6926031,6102,6273,6474,3446%6%7%8%8%10933511,0291,6411,6531,6534%4%4%4%3%10961,5213,6804,5444,5524,55215%14%12%10%9%11131365076886946941%2%2%2%1%11444331,6092,8743,9324,2244%6%8%9%8%11452669041,6082,3772,9233%4%4%5%6%11503,8298,26912,57416,91621,26639%32%34%37%41%11524651,5912,6003,4173,8795%6%7%8%7%

ArkansasNuclearOneJ 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario1)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario2)TripGenerationETE ArkansasNuclearOneJ 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario3)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario4)TripGenerationETE ArkansasNuclearOneJ 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario5)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario6)TripGenerationETE ArkansasNuclearOneJ 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario7)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Ice (Scenario8)TripGenerationETE ArkansasNuclearOneJ 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario9)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario10)TripGenerationETE ArkansasNuclearOneJ 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11)FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Ice (Scenario11)TripGenerationETE 0%20%

40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario12)TripGenerationETE ArkansasNuclearOneJ 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)FigureJ14.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent (Scenario13)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario14)TripGenerationETE APPENDIXKEvacuationRoadwayNetwork ArkansasNuclearOneK 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORKAsdiscussedinSection1.3,alink nodeanalysisnetworkwasconstructedtomodeltheroadwaynetworkwithinthestudyarea.FigureK 1providesanoverviewofthelink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thefigurehasbeendividedupinto48moredetailedfigures(FigureK 2throughFigureK 49)whichshoweachofthelinksandnodesinthenetwork.TheanalysisnetworkwascalibratedusingtheobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveyconductedinOctober2011.TableK 1liststhecharacteristicsofeachroadwaysectionmodeledintheETEanalysis.Eachlinkisidentifiedbyit sroadnameandtheupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers.ThegeographiclocationofeachlinkcanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovidedinTableK 1.TheroadwaytypeidentifiedinTableK 1isgenerallybasedonthefollowingcriteria: Freeway:limitedaccesshighway,2ormorelanesineachdirection,highfreeflowspeeds Freewayramp:rampontooroffofalimitedaccesshighway Majorarterial:3ormorelanesineachdirection Minorarterial:2ormorelanesineachdirection Collector:singlelaneineachdirection Localroadways:singlela neineachdirection,localroadswithlowfreeflowspeedsTheterm,"No.ofLanes"inTableK 1identifiesthenumberoflanesthatextendthroughoutthelengthofthelink.Manylinkshaveadditionallanesontheimmediateapproachtoanintersection(turnpockets);thesehav ebeenrecordedandenteredintotheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.AsdiscussedinSection1.3,lanewidthandshoulderwidthwerenotphysicallymeasuredduringtheroadsurvey.Rather,estimatesofthesemeasureswerebasedonvisualobservationsandrecordedimages.TableK 2identifieseac hnodeinthenetworkthatiscontrolledandthetypeofcontrol(stopsign,yieldsign,pre timedsignal,actuatedsignal,trafficcontrolpoint)atthatnode.UncontrollednodesarenotincludedinTableK 2.Thelocationofeachnodecanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovided.

ArkansasNuclearOneK 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 1.ANOLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork ArkansasNuclearOneK 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1 ArkansasNuclearOneK 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2 ArkansasNuclearOneK 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3 ArkansasNuclearOneK 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4 ArkansasNuclearOneK 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5 ArkansasNuclearOneK 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6 ArkansasNuclearOneK 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7 ArkansasNuclearOneK 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8 ArkansasNuclearOneK 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9 ArkansasNuclearOneK 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10 ArkansasNuclearOneK 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11 ArkansasNuclearOneK 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12 ArkansasNuclearOneK 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13 ArkansasNuclearOneK 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14 ArkansasNuclearOneK 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15 ArkansasNuclearOneK 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16 ArkansasNuclearOneK 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17 ArkansasNuclearOneK 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18 ArkansasNuclearOneK 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19 ArkansasNuclearOneK 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20 ArkansasNuclearOneK 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21 ArkansasNuclearOneK 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22 ArkansasNuclearOneK 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23 ArkansasNuclearOneK 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24 ArkansasNuclearOneK 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25 ArkansasNuclearOneK 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26 ArkansasNuclearOneK 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27 ArkansasNuclearOneK 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28 ArkansasNuclearOneK 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29 ArkansasNuclearOneK 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30 ArkansasNuclearOneK 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31 ArkansasNuclearOneK 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32 ArkansasNuclearOneK 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK34.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33 ArkansasNuclearOneK 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK35.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34 ArkansasNuclearOneK 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK36.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35 ArkansasNuclearOneK 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK37.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36 ArkansasNuclearOneK 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK38.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37 ArkansasNuclearOneK 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK39.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38 ArkansasNuclearOneK 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK40.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39 ArkansasNuclearOneK 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK41.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40 ArkansasNuclearOneK 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK42.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid41 ArkansasNuclearOneK 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK43.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid42 ArkansasNuclearOneK 45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK44.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid43 ArkansasNuclearOneK 46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK45.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid44 ArkansasNuclearOneK 47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK46.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid45 ArkansasNuclearOneK 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK47.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid46 ArkansasNuclearOneK 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK48.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid47 ArkansasNuclearOneK 50KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK49.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid48 ArkansasNuclearOneK 51KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristicsLink#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber161310I 40FREEWAY211621242250702271318I 40FREEWAY8607212422507010371324I 40FREEWAY31632124225070104910I 40FREEWAY6577212422507010591324I 40FREEWAY94202124225070106109I 40FREEWAY657721242250701071011I 40FREEWAY153221242250701081061OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP114011241700451091110I 40FREEWAY1532212422507010101112I 40FREEWAY3069212422507010111160OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP1349112417004510121211I 40FREEWAY3069212422507010131216I 40FREEWAY5609212422507010141612I 40FREEWAY5589212422507010151617I 40FREEWAY4692212422507011161716I 40FREEWAY4694212422507011171718I 40FREEWAY11072124225070111817830OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP627112417504511191817I 40FREEWAY1107212422507011201820I 40FREEWAY128062124225070192118831OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP692112417004511222018I 40FREEWAY12826212422507019232024I 40FREEWAY5523212422507019242420I 40FREEWAY5498212422507019 ArkansasNuclearOneK 52KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber252425I 40FREEWAY10157212422507019262524I 40FREEWAY10143212422507019272526I 40FREEWAY7424212422507020282625I 40FREEWAY7424212422507020292627I 40FREEWAY40072124225070203026466OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP2225112417004520312726I 40FREEWAY4007212422507020322729I 40FREEWAY104142124225070203327467OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP1860112417004520342927I 40FREEWAY10412212422507020352930I 40FREEWAY6390212422507020363029I 40FREEWAY63932124225070203730745I 40FREEWAY17422124225070213830834I 40OFFRAMPTOUS64FREEWAYRAMP988112417004021393134I 40FREEWAY51532124225070214031745I 40FREEWAY5927212422507021413431I 40FREEWAY5140212422507021423435I 40FREEWAY4760212422507021433534I 40FREEWAY4760212422507021443536I 40FREEWAY23602124225070294535197OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP1348112417504529463635I 40FREEWAY2360212422507029473637I 40FREEWAY45962124225070294836223OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP1217112417004529493736I 40FREEWAY4610212422507029 ArkansasNuclearOneK 53KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber503738I 40FREEWAY3942212422507029513837I 40FREEWAY394121242250702952381029OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP147511241700452953381030I 40FREEWAY2345212422507032544041I 40FREEWAY16052124225070325540748I 40OFFRAMPTOSR331FREEWAYRAMP69711241700453256401030I 40FREEWAY3274212422507032574140I 40FREEWAY1605212422507032584142I 40FREEWAY64872124225070325941750I 40OFFRAMPTOSR331FREEWAYRAMP1207112417004532604241I 40FREEWAY6487212422507032614244I 40FREEWAY4259212422507033624442I 40FREEWAY4259212422507033634445I 40FREEWAY9046212422507034644544I 40FREEWAY9046212422507034654546I 40FREEWAY20112124225070346645751I 40OFFRAMPTOSR363FREEWAYRAMP630112417004534674645I 40FREEWAY2008212422507034684648I 40FREEWAY105262124225070356946754I 40OFFRAMPTOSR363FREEWAYRAMP927112417004534704846I 40FREEWAY10536212422507035714849I 40FREEWAY12520212422507035724948I 40FREEWAY12520212422507035734950I 40FREEWAY3321212422507035745049I 40FREEWAY3330212422507035 ArkansasNuclearOneK 54KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber755051I 40FREEWAY3291212422507035765150I 40FREEWAY32842124225070357751816OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP94611241700453578511344I 40FREEWAY1209321242250703679521309US 64COLLECTOR20031124175055380531180US 64COLLECTOR83551124170055381531274US 64COLLECTOR79031124170055382541356I 40FREEWAY10718212422507042835758US 64COLLECTOR174411241700451084571180US 64COLLECTOR1672112417005510855857US 64COLLECTOR1750112417004510865859US 64COLLECTOR1910112417004510875958US 64COLLECTOR1910112417004510885960US 64COLLECTOR7309112417006510896010ONRAMPI 40WESTFREEWAYRAMP650112417004510906059US 64COLLECTOR7309112417006510916061US 64COLLECTOR1092112417006010926111ONRAMPI 40EASTFREEWAYRAMP557112417004510936160US 64COLLECTOR109211241700601094611288US 64COLLECTOR310511241700601095671140US 64COLLECTOR265911241700601096671288US 64COLLECTOR2472112417006010976872US 64COLLECTOR144771124170060199868830SR 315COLLECTOR209111241750401199681140US 64COLLECTOR4452112417006011 ArkansasNuclearOneK 55KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1007268US 64COLLECTOR144901124170060191017274US 64COLLECTOR71931124175060191027472US 64COLLECTOR7190112417006019103741195US 64COLLECTOR57381124170060191047879US 64COLLECTOR6511112417006020105781195US 64COLLECTOR69581124170060191067978US 64COLLECTOR65111124170060201077980US 64COLLECTOR102411241575352010879464SR 333COLLECTOR9701124170040201098079US 64COLLECTOR10241124157535201108081US 64COLLECTOR33331124170045201118180US 64COLLECTOR33331124170045201128183US 64COLLECTOR87811124170050201138381US 64COLLECTOR87811124170050201148393US 64COLLECTOR139811241700552011584833MISSIONRDCOLLECTOR52111241700402111684834US 64COLLECTOR744112417005521117841292US 64COLLECTOR144711241750552111887501LAKEFRONTDRCOLLECTOR1875112417004028119871041WPARKWAYDRCOLLECTOR4767112417004028120871307WPARKWAYDRCOLLECTOR760112417004028121871308LAKEFRONTDRCOLLECTOR1671124157535281228892US 64COLLECTOR1155112417005528123881308US 64COLLECTOR11321124170055281249288US 64COLLECTOR1155112417505528 ArkansasNuclearOneK 56KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1259295US 64MINORARTERIAL39482124175055281269383US 64COLLECTOR1398112417005520127931199US 64COLLECTOR18041124170055201289592US 64MINORARTERIAL3943212419005528129951120US 64MINORARTERIAL5932124190045281309697US 64MINORARTERIAL1835212419004529131961245SPHOENIXAVECOLLECTOR1262112417004029132961256US 64MINORARTERIAL1591212419004529133961301NPHOENIXAVECOLLECTOR5571124175040291349796US 64MINORARTERIAL18352124175045291359798US 64MINORARTERIAL9772124190045291369897US 64MINORARTERIAL97721241900452913798106US 64MINORARTERIAL581212417504529138981304SGLENWOODAVELOCALROADWAY4641124135030291399998NGLENWOODAVELOCAL ROADWAY5831124135030291401001123SGLENWOODAVELOCAL ROADWAY322112413503031 ArkansasNuclearOneK 57KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1411001205SGLENWOODAVELOCALROADWAY139311241350303114210698US 64MINORARTERIAL582212419004529143106107US 64MINORARTERIAL364212417503529144107106US 64MINORARTERIAL364212417503529145107108US 64MINORARTERIAL312212417503529146108107US 64MINORARTERIAL312212417503529147108110US 64MINORARTERIAL445212417503529148110108US 64MINORARTERIAL445212417503529149110111US 64MINORARTERIAL2437212419003529150110190SR 7MINORARTERIAL11462124175035291511101086SR 7MINORARTERIAL322212417504029152111110US 64MINORARTERIAL2427212417503529153111114US 64MINORARTERIAL1634212417505029154114111US 64MINORARTERIAL1634212419005029 ArkansasNuclearOneK 58KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber155114115US 64MINORARTERIAL40182124175050291561141069SKNOXVILLEAVECOLLECTOR1302112417504029157115114US 64MINORARTERIAL4018212417505029158115117US 64MINORARTERIAL12592124175050321591151062SR 326MINORARTERIAL1697212417504032160116117NELMIRAAVECOLLECTOR17271124175040321611161063EPARKWAYDRCOLLECTOR1939112417004032162117115US 64MINORARTERIAL1259212417505032163117116NELMIRAAVECOLLECTOR1727112417004032164117611SR 331COLLECTOR5302112417004032165117749US 64MINORARTERIAL2572212417505032166119120US 64COLLECTOR39871124170055321671191076US 64MINORARTERIAL1952212419005532168120119US 64COLLECTOR3987112417005532169120125US 64COLLECTOR10162112417005534170125120US 64COLLECTOR10165112417005534171125126US 64COLLECTOR3893112417504534172126125US 64COLLECTOR3893112417004534173126751SR363COLLECTOR1641124170045341741261330US 64COLLECTOR2696112417005034 ArkansasNuclearOneK 59KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1751271057US 64COLLECTOR38021124170055351761271330US 64COLLECTOR1791112417005034177130132US 64COLLECTOR11398112417005535178130737BELLSCHAPELRDWCOLLECTOR64961124170040411791301057US 64COLLECTOR6605112417005535180132130US 64COLLECTOR11398112417005535181132135US 64COLLECTOR3702112417004035182135132US 64COLLECTOR3700112417004035183135817SR 105COLLECTOR3444112415753535184135978US 64COLLECTOR6521124170040351851351270CHURCHSTCOLLECTOR1122112415753535186137820SR 27COLLECTOR2124112417005544187139137SR 27COLLECTOR7674112417005545188141139SR 27COLLECTOR4615112417005545189143141SR 27COLLECTOR4816112417004545190144143SR 27COLLECTOR7914112417005545191146144SR 27COLLECTOR6059112417005545192149146SR 27COLLECTOR6487112417004545193152149SR 27COLLECTOR4899112417004538194153152SR27COLLECTOR6345112417005538195154153SR 27COLLECTOR587112417005538196155154SLOFORKRDCOLLECTOR6290112415753538197158154SR 27COLLECTOR6543112417005538198162158SR 27COLLECTOR5092112417005538199162166SR 27COLLECTOR4990112417005538 ArkansasNuclearOneK 60KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber200166162SR 27COLLECTOR49881124175055382011661279SR 27COLLECTOR5567112417505538202167168SR 27COLLECTOR25131124175040392031671279SR 27COLLECTOR5675112417505539204168167SR 27COLLECTOR2512112417004039205168173SR 7COLLECTOR528112417504039206168325SR 7COLLECTOR4491112417505039207171172SR7MINORARTERIAL1440212417504039208171180SR 7MINORARTERIAL4600212417505039209172171SR7MINORARTERIAL1440212417504039210172173SR7MINORARTERIAL1279212417504039211173168SR 7MINORARTERIAL528212417504039212173172SR7MINORARTERIAL1279212417504039213173276SR 22COLLECTOR1678112417504039214180171SR 7MINORARTERIAL4601212417505039215180401SR 247COLLECTOR6251124157535392161801075SR 7MINORARTERIAL1318212419005039217181182SR 7MINORARTERIAL843212417505031 ArkansasNuclearOneK 61KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber2181811075SR 7MINORARTERIAL5907212419005031219182181SR 7MINORARTERIAL843212417505031220182183SR 7MINORARTERIAL2216212419005031221182627AR 7TRUCKCOLLECTOR3909112417004531222183182SR 7MINORARTERIAL2216212417505031223183184SR7MINORARTERIAL1708212419004531224184183SR 7MINORARTERIAL16942124190045312251841215SR 7MINORARTERIAL6602124190045312261881072E16THSTCOLLECTOR12971124157535312271881124SR 7MINORARTERIAL9682124190045312281881215SR 7MINORARTERIAL635212419004531229190110SR 7MINORARTERIAL11462124175035292301901048WPARKWAYDRMINORARTERIAL2262124190035292311901089EPARKWAYDRMINORARTERIAL12682124175040292321901241SR 7MINORARTERIAL3069212419003529 ArkansasNuclearOneK 62KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber2331931127SR 124COLLECTOR11891124170040292341931241SR 7MINORARTERIAL15572124190035292351931299SR 7MINORARTERIAL2421212419003529236194196SR 7MINORARTERIAL14672124175045292371941299SR 7MINORARTERIAL1336212417503529238196194SR 7MINORARTERIAL1467212419004529239196197SR 7MINORARTERIAL382212417504529240197196SR 7MINORARTERIAL382212417504529241197198SR 7MINORARTERIAL9412124175045292421971278ONRAMPI 40EASTFREEWAYRAMP19821241900452924319835ONRAMPI 40WESTFREEWAYRAMP1072112417004529244198197SR 7MINORARTERIAL941212417504529245198223EASPENLNCOLLECTOR4301124170040292461981130SR 7MINORARTERIAL15862124190045212471991130SR 7MINORARTERIAL25112124190045212481991239SR 7MINORARTERIAL1556212419004521 ArkansasNuclearOneK 63KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber249204208SR 7MINORARTERIAL10188212419005021250208212SR 7MINORARTERIAL43002124190050212512081164MORGANRDCOLLECTOR7248112417005522252212222SR 7MINORARTERIAL3815212419005013253213214SR 7COLLECTOR2641112415753513254214219SR 27COLLECTOR790112415753513255219220SR 27COLLECTOR30291124170045142562191104SR 164COLLECTOR965112415753513257220227SR 27COLLECTOR1361112417004514258222213SR 7COLLECTOR3305112417005013259223198EASPENLNMINORARTERIAL430312417504029260223224EASPENLNCOLLECTOR4111112417004029261224223EASPENLNCOLLECTOR4111112417004029262224275EASPENLNCOLLECTOR1570112415753529263227229SR 27COLLECTOR3923112417005514264229231SR 27COLLECTOR4194112417005014265231236SR 27COLLECTOR8228112417005014266236239SR 27COLLECTOR5663112417004514267239240SR27COLLECTOR1991112417005014268240241SR 27COLLECTOR3122112417004514269241243SR 27COLLECTOR4295112417005014270243244SR 27COLLECTOR6163112417005014 ArkansasNuclearOneK 64KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber271244986SR 27COLLECTOR107771124170055152722481127SR 124COLLECTOR13071124170040292732481244SR 124COLLECTOR1154112417004029274249250SR 124COLLECTOR2698112417004029275250251SR 124COLLECTOR18571124157535322762501031SR 326COLLECTOR2808112417004532277251250SR 124COLLECTOR1845112415753532278251252SR 124COLLECTOR1814112417503532279252251SR 124COLLECTOR1814112417003532280252253SR 124COLLECTOR3926112417004022281252275SPARKSFORDDRCOLLECTOR5148112417004029282253256SR 124COLLECTOR7143112417004522283256260SR 124LOCALROADWAY17521124135030222842601261SR 124COLLECTOR6203112417006022285261262SR 124COLLECTOR10419112417006022286261475SR 326COLLECTOR6432112417004522287262265SR 124COLLECTOR6339112417006023288265266SR 124COLLECTOR1646112417004523289265758MORGANRDCOLLECTOR19301112417005522290266497SR164COLLECTOR11931124170045232912661160SR 124COLLECTOR977112417004523292267271SR 124COLLECTOR6051112417004015293271968SR 124COLLECTOR5212112417005015294275224EASPENLNCOLLECTOR1586112415753529 ArkansasNuclearOneK 65KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation 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22COLLECTOR2993112417006025319311314SR 22COLLECTOR3865112417006025 ArkansasNuclearOneK 66KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber3203111174SR 22COLLECTOR4358112417006025321314311SR 22COLLECTOR3850112417006025322314316SR 22COLLECTOR8328112417006025323316314SR 22COLLECTOR8317112417006025324316320SR 22COLLECTOR5252112417006024325317320ARTESIANWELLROADCOLLECTOR3939112415753524326320316SR 22COLLECTOR5252112417006024327320321SR 22COLLECTOR5976112417006024328321320SR 22COLLECTOR59761124170060243293211006SR 22COLLECTOR7708112417006024330325168SR 7COLLECTOR4491112417505039331325326SR 28COLLECTOR6372112417005039332325327SR 7COLLECTOR9181124170050393333251147LOWERDANVILLERDCOLLECTOR571112417004039334326325SR 28COLLECTOR63941124175050393353261281SR 28COLLECTOR5364112417005539336327325SR 7COLLECTOR918112417505039337327331SR 7COLLECTOR5625112417005039338331327SR 7COLLECTOR5625112417005039339331819SR 7COLLECTOR3566112417004039340333819SR 7COLLECTOR56431124170055393413331167SR 7COLLECTOR7453112417005547342338341SR 7COLLECTOR64931124170055473433381167SR 7COLLECTOR4206112417005547344339338CR 79COLLECTOR5962112417004547 ArkansasNuclearOneK 67KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber3453391169CR 79COLLECTOR7338112417005546346341338SR 7COLLECTOR6501112417005547347341342SR 7COLLECTOR2266112417004047348342341SR 7COLLECTOR2265112417004047349342344SR 7COLLECTOR3707112417004047350342394SR 154COLLECTOR3750112417004547351344342SR 7COLLECTOR3707112417004047352344345SR 7COLLECTOR2737112417004047353345344SR 7COLLECTOR27311124170040473543471147LOWERDANVILLERDCOLLECTOR1339112417004039355352598N2NDSTCOLLECTOR3784112417004039356361364SR 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333COLLECTOR545112417004520102912641266WPARKWAYDRMINORARTERIAL1361212417504029 ArkansasNuclearOneK100KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber103012641300WPARKWAYDRCOLLECTOR120011241750402910311266106ELPASOAVECOLLECTOR1016112417503529103212661048WPARKWAYDRMINORARTERIAL687212419003529103312661264WPARKWAYDRMINORARTERIAL1378212419004029103412671266ELPASOAVECOLLECTOR537112417503529103512681042NPHOENIXAVECOLLECTOR777112417504029103612691357US 64COLLECTOR1077611241700404210371270135CHURCHSTCOLLECTOR112211241575353510381270979SR 324COLLECTOR720112417004035103912711275SR 164LOCALROADWAY224311241350303104012721276SR 164COLLECTOR321711241575353104112731274SR 21COLLECTOR2105112417005031042127453US 64COLLECTOR787411241700553104312741309US 64COLLECTOR548611241750553104412751272SR 164LOCAL ROADWAY205711241350303104512761273SR 164LOCAL 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64COLLECTOR2477112417006010106412891290PITTSBURGHRDCOLLECTOR1917112417004011106512901288PITTSBURGHRDCOLLECTOR235611241700401010661291913MILLCREEKRDCOLLECTOR9121124157535201067129284US 64COLLECTOR1366112417005521106812921307US 64COLLECTOR6398112417505521106912931294W12THSTLOCALROADWAY168112411252530107012941295W12THSTLOCAL ROADWAY138112411252530107112951296W12THSTLOCAL ROADWAY15811241125253010721296652W12THSTLOCALROADWAY1866112413503030 ArkansasNuclearOneK102KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber107312961293W12THSTLOCALROADWAY143112411252530107412971221SITHACAAVELOCAL ROADWAY489112413503031107512981220SITHACAAVELOCAL ROADWAY130711241350302910761299193SR 7MINORARTERIAL239821241750352910771299194SR 7MINORARTERIAL1336212419003529107813001042WPARKWAYDRMINORARTERIAL1617212417504029107913001264WPARKWAYDRMINORARTERIAL11942124190040291080130196NPHOENIXAVECOLLECTOR571112417504029108113011042NPHOENIXAVECOLLECTOR1676112417504029108213021301CSTLOCALROADWAY396112413503029108313031301CSTLOCAL ROADWAY5121124135030291084130498SGLENWOODAVELOCALROADWAY463112413503029108513041203SGLENWOODAVELOCAL ROADWAY977112413503029108613041305W2NDSTCOLLECTOR49311241575352910871305106ELPASOAVECOLLECTOR341112417503529108813051306W2NDSTCOLLECTOR37011241575352910891306107DENVERAVECOLLECTOR335112417503529 ArkansasNuclearOneK103KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber109013061088W2NDSTCOLLECTOR3091124157535291091130787WPARKWAYDRCOLLECTOR760112417504028109213071292US 64COLLECTOR6364112417005521109313071308US 64COLLECTOR7321124170055281094130887LAKEFRONTDRCOLLECTOR1671124175035281095130888US 64COLLECTOR11321124175055281096130952US 64COLLECTOR200311241700553109713091274US 64COLLECTOR548611241700553109813091311SR 103COLLECTOR235511241750403109913106I 40FREEWAY211621242250702110013101318I 40FREEWAY91021242250703110113101323OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP42911241350302110213111315SR 103COLLECTOR251011241750403110313121309SR 103COLLECTOR126011241750403110413131311SR 123COLLECTOR152411241750403110513141311SR 123COLLECTOR552111241750403110613151319SR 103COLLECTOR196311241750403110713161315SHERWOODPLAZACOLLECTOR88911241750403110813171315SHERWOODCOLLECTOR47011241750403110913187I 40FREEWAY8620212422507010111013181310I 40FREEWAY91021242250703111113181319OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP126211241750453111213191320ONRAMPI 40EBFREEWAYRAMP41611241350302111313191321SR 103COLLECTOR116311241750402111413201310ONRAMPI 40EBFREEWAYRAMP43711241350302 ArkansasNuclearOneK104KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber111513211318ONRAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP101211241700453111613211322SR 103COLLECTOR79911241700409111713231321OFF RAMPI 40FREEWAYRAMP50811241750302111813247I 40FREEWAY3141212422507010111913249I 40FREEWAY939821242250701011201325728PINERIDGERDCOLLECTOR4045112415753540112113261234PISGAHRDLOCALROADWAY3114112413503034112213271328SR 247BYPASSMINORARTERIAL6434212419006040112313281329SR 247BYPASSMINORARTERIAL352021241900603411241329126SR 247BYPASSMINORARTERIAL66721241750603411251330126US 64COLLECTOR269611241750503411261330127US 64COLLECTOR1765112417005034112713311332EASHSTCOLLECTOR1870112415753534112813321330EASHSTCOLLECTOR640112415753534112913331331PINERIDGERDCOLLECTOR4249112415753534113013341150WILDCATHOLLOWRDCOLLECTOR12872112415753527113113351334WILDCATHOLLOWRDCOLLECTOR4064112415753526113213361314SR 123COLLECTOR227511241700403113313371178DUBLINROADLOCALROADWAY1572112413503017113413381337DUBLINROADCOLLECTOR13348112415753517113513391186DUFFIELDRDCOLLECTOR4241112415753539 ArkansasNuclearOneK105KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber113613401341SR 7COLLECTOR58021124170040711371341582SR 7COLLECTOR1355811241700406113813421241WLSTLOCALROADWAY84811241350302911391343978US 64COLLECTOR8095112417004036114013431357US 64COLLECTOR114601124170040361141134451I 40FREEWAY12093212422507036114213441356I 40FREEWAY860321242250703611431345989SR 105COLLECTOR4558112417006015114413451346SR 124COLLECTOR4947112417005015114513461355SR 124COLLECTOR4134112417005015114613481349SR 247COLLECTOR4029112417005036114713491350SR 247LOCAL ROADWAY2167112413503036114813511347SR 124COLLECTOR2463112417004016114913521351SR 124COLLECTOR4431112417004016115013531352SR 124COLLECTOR4548112417004016115113541353SR 124COLLECTOR4367112417004016115213551354SR 124COLLECTOR110521124170050161153135654I 40FREEWAY10718212422507042115413561344I 40FREEWAY8603212422507036115513571269US 64COLLECTOR10776112417004042115613571343US 64COLLECTOR11460112417004036115713581359RIVERRDCOLLECTOR5951112017004540115813591360RIVERRDCOLLECTOR3032112017004540 ArkansasNuclearOneK106KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber115913601361RIVERRDCOLLECTOR2817112013503040116013611362SR 105COLLECTOR2992112013503040116113621363SR 105COLLECTOR1995112017004540116213631364SR 105COLLECTOR2111112017004540116313641365SR 105COLLECTOR1268112017004540116413651366SR 105COLLECTOR14081112017004541116513661367SR 105COLLECTOR3583112017004541116613671368SR 105COLLECTOR1958112017004541116713681369SR 105COLLECTOR2541112017004541116813691370SR 105COLLECTOR10978112017004541116913701371SR 105COLLECTOR1919112017004541117013711372SR 105COLLECTOR2454112017004041117113721373SR 105COLLECTOR1555112017004041117213731374SR 105COLLECTOR4105112017004041117313741375SR 105COLLECTOR253411201700404111741375979SR 105COLLECTOR345112017004041117580036I 40FREEWAY15162124225070211768006345SR 7COLLECTOR25551124170040471177805154I 40FREEWAY2874212422507043117889001006SR 22COLLECTOR6834112417003024ExitLink68003I 40FREEWAY151621242250702ExitLink528052US 64COLLECTOR228211241700552ExitLink548051I 40FREEWAY2874212422507043ExitLink2458987SR 105COLLECTOR471211241700608ExitLink3458006SR 7COLLECTOR2555112417004047 ArkansasNuclearOneK107KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumberExitLink8208001SR 27COLLECTOR3383112417005544ExitLink10068900SR 22COLLECTOR6834112417006024ExitLink11128007SR 154COLLECTOR2292112417005548ExitLink12698008US 64COLLECTOR2488112417004043ExitLink13228323SR 103COLLECTOR76811241700409ExitLink13478347SR 124COLLECTOR4806112417006016ExitLink13508349SR 247COLLECTOR4426112417005036 ArkansasNuclearOneK108KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlledNodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber57897887407345Stop1058899144406156Stop1060899883396967Stop1061899792395879Stop1068905539384875Stop1174919692369127TCPActuated1978931747365802Stop2079938258365722Stop2083951067362953Stop2084957028361306Stop2187963136355569TCPActuated2888963105354425Actuated2893952412362572Stop2095964685349597Actuated2896969732347432Actuated2997971448346782Stop2998972367346447Stop29100972138342098Stop31106972904346225Actuated29107973246346097Actuated29108973539345990Actuated29110973958345842Actuated29114977999345879Actuated29115982016345799Actuated32116983213347458Stop32117983273345732Actuated32119988525344832Stop32125999620336489Stop341261003097334739Actuated341301017430332817Stop351351032482332129Stop35137902536281019Stop44141910736289845Stop45146924357301335Stop45153937805310863Stop38154938341311101Stop38162948632316247TCPActuated38 ArkansasNuclearOneK109KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber168964585324468Actuated39171966911325995Actuated39172965572325466Actuated39173964397324961Actuated39180971014328065TCPActuated39181972666335065Actuated31182973006335836Actuated31188973809340780Actuated31190974030346986Actuated29193974312351601Actuated29194972944353749Stop29196972802355209Actuated29197972748355587Actuated29198972661356524TCPActuated29199973536360520Stop21204974436368499Stop21208978959377628Stop21213980189388496Stop13214980323391133Yield13219981112391093Stop13220983433392849Stop14223973084356448Stop29250982184353696Stop32252983639356285Actuated32256988784364652Stop222611000184367937Stop222651013902376536Stop232661014688377923Stop23276963808326532TCPActuated39282957011333294TCPUnactuated30284951736335281Stop27287945211339155TCPActuated27294925268347944TCPActuated26302909390347700Stop26309893906350228TCPActuated25311887143349629Stop25316875377352460Stop24320870320351042Stop24 ArkansasNuclearOneK110KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber325966918320630TCPActuated39338963198294398Stop47342962576285710Stop47370945853298322Stop46373942470294147Stop46376940953286169Stop46394966198286417Stop47400984831287023Stop48410998039325451Stop40417999241335510Stop34435963590343753Stop28436963359345096Stop28444953738347837Stop27447957711354644Stop28451961162356347Stop28452946953360211Stop20460938518365030Stop20461938245365294Stop20462940987362907Stop20466937938367148Stop20467937946367832Yield20468937123367838Yield204771015434361768Stop23484981963389930Stop14505978028346829Actuated29514919903374143Stop19521920571389828Stop11523921199392509TCPActuated11534915781408834Stop11544936459369669Stop20545931838373840Stop20547935867373735Stop20553938136383031Stop20556943183389422Stop12560942821395534Stop12561949008395870Stop12574974078395218TCPActuated13582973873415759Stop6 ArkansasNuclearOneK111KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber597935791378250Stop20598961808330691Stop30602983167337371Stop33611983079340433Stop33623977847340628Actuated31652969381342220Stop31677899860419099Stop3678897072419713Stop3686905503431605Stop4689915387413138Stop4696922843422642Stop4701941549422070Stop5710962485423692Stop6711962059427047Stop6723926584433711Stop4727918564433246Stop47281003593326673Stop407361010593325055Stop417371017338326322Stop417391019864326074Stop41742940559436086Stop5744956758362328Stop21748985887347208Stop32749985844345652Actuated32750986546347981Stop327511003127334900Stop347521003356335552Stop34758994606376978Stop228021016745344553Stop358151032481336357Stop358161032524336628Stop35819966599310718Stop39830907593384926TCPActuated11831908314385319Stop11834956308361494Stop21911952593365992Stop20949937398382737Yield209681027960387455Stop15 ArkansasNuclearOneK112KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber9711026218373500Stop239741031520358941Stop239781033134332129Stop359791033177331004Stop359861021888407972Stop15998956919327347Stop391027997918322960Stop401029982079349891Stop321031982089350890Stop321042970106349593Actuated2910571010870332561Stop351062982042347496Actuated321064985866346855Actuated321067973926344698Actuated291069977949344578Actuated291072975105340735Stop311073977570335391Stop311076986658345399Stop321077986772342857Stop331078988484342918Stop331083986500341630Stop331086973930345521Actuated291088973464345659Stop291089975296346907Actuated291105971777338699Stop311106946994327066Stop381110965077326475Stop391111966000324559Stop391120965186349280Stop281121964758349183Stop281124973820341748Stop311125982054348469Stop321127975454351271Stop291128973852342379Stop311129977839342226Stop311130972889358094Stop211140902820388401Stop111147967368320981Stop39 ArkansasNuclearOneK113KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber1151946452337544Stop271153941838427742Stop51155960496429411Stop611601014752378898Stop231164986202377361Stop221167964657298343Stop471169950654297716Stop461174891108351291Stop251177873144355043Stop241180896622408439Stop101181906215407430Stop111185979720326101Stop391196959668331770Stop301203972291345009Stop291205972223343488Stop291208958557346554Stop281211972019339766Stop311213965261341080Stop301215973779340146Stop311217975285346532Stop291220977098344621Stop291221977021342256Stop311222980793340491Stop311225982961339259Stop331226980778339297Stop311227977675338545Stop311229977806341686Stop311231988175336614Stop331232987598325725Stop401234998281330347Stop401236975611357890Stop211239973452362074Stop211241974146350053Stop291242975431350087Stop291244977782351857Stop291245969497346192Stop291247971450346171Stop291248964657345071Stop28 ArkansasNuclearOneK114KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinate (ft)1YCoordinate (ft)1ControlTypeGridMapNumber1249967639344995Stop281250964698347337Stop281253966700348549Stop281255967946346249Stop281256968225347940Stop281266973155347210Actuated2912701032457331007Stop351273884658418713Stop31274883285417117Stop31279956741322903TCPActuated391280956439314631Stop391281957659314108Stop391285887145432069Stop31288901030393039Stop101293967447342377Yield301294967350342258Yield301295967422342146Yield301301969936347950Stop291304972341345984Stop291305972826345893Stop291306973174345767Stop291308962970355549Stop281309877812417490Actuated31311877892415136Actuated31315877090412828Actuated31319875963411221Actuated21321875856410063Actuated213301005320333223Stop3413311003066333795Stop341 CoordinatesareintheNorthAmericanDatumof1983ArkansasNorthStatePlaneZone APPENDIXLZoneBoundaries ArkansasNuclearOneL 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1L. ZONEBOUNDARIESTheZonedescriptionsprovidedbelowareadaptedfromthepublicinformation-"EmergencyInstructionsArkansasNuclearOne"datedNovember1,2010.ZoneGCounty:PopeTheareawithinapproximatelytwomilesofArkansasNuclearOne.ThisincludesLakeDardanelle,theANOpeninsula,MillCreek,40AcreRockandLondonCommunities.ZoneHCounty:PopeRussellvilleresidentswestofArkansasAvenueandsouthofI 40.ThisincludesNorristownandtheDardanelleStateParkarea.ZoneICounty:PopeRussellvilleresidentssouthofI 40andeastofArkansasAvenue.ThisincludestheSouthNewHopeCommunity.ZoneJCounty:PopePopeCountyresidentsnorthofI 40,southofBakersCreekandeastoftheIllinoisBayou.ZoneKCounty:PopePopeCountyresidentsnorthofHighway64,westoftheIllinoisBayou,eastandsouthofHighway333,andsouthofcountyroad79(alsoknownasShinnMountainRoad)andcountyroad141(alsoknownasLowerShinnMountainRoad.ZoneLCounty:PopePopeCountyresidentseastoftheIllinoisBayouandnorthofBakersCreek.ThisincludesDoverandtheLinkerMountainCommunity.ZoneMCounty:PopePopeCountyresidentsnorthofHickeytownRoad,eastofHighway333andnorthofcountyroad79(alsoknownasShinnMountainRoad)andcountyroad141(alsoknownasLowerShinnMountainRoad).ThisincludestheAugsburg,RushingandNorthNewHopeCommunities.ZoneNCounty:PopePopeCountyresidentssouthofHickeytownRoad,westofHighway333andnorthofLakeDardanelle.ZoneOCounty:JohnsonJohnsonCountyresidentseastofHighway359andsouthofFlatRockCreek.ZonePCounty:JohnsonJohnsonCountyresidentsnorthofFlatRockCreekandwestofHighway359.ThisincludesthePiney,PineyBay,KnoxvilleandHickeytownCommunities.

ArkansasNuclearOneL 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ZoneQCounty:LoganLoganCountyresidentsresidingbetweenDelawareandNewBlaine.ThisincludestheNewLiberty,WestRiverMountainandNicholsLanearea.ZoneRCounty:LoganLoganCountyresidentswithinanareaapproximatelytwomileswestoftheLogan Yellcountyline.ThisincludesWildcatHollow,Delaware,DelawareTakeArea,RiverMountainRoadeastofFlurryRoadandHighway22eastofJohnsonLane.ZoneSCounty:YellYellCountyresidentssouthofMt.NeboRoadandwestoftheDardanellecitylimits.ThisincludestheSloForkandSulphurSpringsareas.ZoneTCounty:YellAllresidentsofthecityofDardanelle.ZoneUCounty:YellYellCountyresidentsnorthofMt.NeboRoadandwestoftheDardanellecitylimits.ThisincludesMt.Nebo,HaneyHollow,WildcatHollowinYellCountyandtheLakeDardanelleStateParkarea.

APPENDIXMEvacuationSensitivityStudies ArkansasNuclearOneM 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIESThisappendixpresentstheresultsofaseriesofsensitivityanalyses.TheseanalysesaredesignedtoidentifythesensitivityoftheETEtochangesinsomebaseevacuationconditions.M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimesAsensitivitystudywasperformedtodeterminewhetherchangesintheestimatedtripgenerationtimehaveaneffectontheETEfortheentireEPZ.Specifically,ifthetailofthemobilizationdistributionweretruncated(i.e.,ifthosewhorespondedmostslowlytotheATE,couldbepersuadedtorespondmuchmorerapidly)orexpanded(i.e.,spreadingouttheresponsetotheATEtopotentiallyreducepeaktraffic),howwouldtheETEbeaffected?Thecaseconsid eredwasScenario6,Region3;awinter,midweek,midday,goodweatherevacuationoftheentireEPZ.TableM 1presentstheresultsofthisstudy.TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudyTripGenerationPeriodEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile2Hours30Minutes3:504:553Hours30Minutes(Base)3:555:004hoursand30minutes3:555:05AsdiscussedinSection7.3,trafficcongestionpersistswithintheEPZforabout5hours.Assuch,theETEatthe100 thpercentileismostlyaffectedbytrafficcongestion.Compressingthetripgenerationtimeto2hoursand30minutesonlyreducesthe90 thand100 thpercentileETEby5minutes.Extendingtripgenerationto4hoursand30minutesincreasesthe100 thpercentileETEby5minutesandhasnoimpactonthe90 thpercentileETE.

ArkansasNuclearOneM 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocateAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesinthepercentageofpeoplewhodecidetorelocatefromtheShadowRegion.ThecaseconsideredwasScenario6,Region3;awinter,midweek,midday,go odweatherevacuationfortheentireEPZ.ThemovementofpeopleintheShadowRegionhasthepotentialtoimpedevehiclesevacuatingfromanEvacuationRegionwithintheEPZ.RefertoSections3.2and7.1foradditionalinformationonpopulationwithintheshadowregion.TableM 2presentstheevacuationtimeestimatesforeachofthecasesconsidered.TheresultsshowthattheETEisnotsignificantlyimpactedwhenvaryingshadowevacuationfrom0%to60%.TriplingtheshadowpercentageincreasestheETEby5minutesforboththe90 thand100 thpercentiles.Note,thetelephonesurveyresultspresentedinAppendixFindicatethat25%ofhouseholdswouldelecttoevacuateifadvisedtoshelter.Thebaseassumptionof20%non compliancesuggestedinNUREG/CR 7002islowerthanthesurveyresults.However,asindicatedinTableM 2,ETEarenotimpactedwh enincreasingtheshadowevacuationpercentageto25%.TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudyPercentShadowEvacuationEvacuatingShadowVehiclesEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile003:555:0020(Base)2,6783:555:00253,3473:555:00608,0344:005:05 ArkansasNuclearOneM 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulationAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesintheresidentpopulationwithinthestudyarea(EPZplusShadowRegion).Aspopulationinthestudyareachangesovertime,thetimerequiredtoevacuatethepublicmayincrease,decrease,orremainthesame.Sinc etheETEisrelatedtothedemandtocapacityratiopresentwithinthestudyarea,changesinpopulationwillcausethedemandsideoftheequationtochange.Thesensitivitystudywasconductedusingthefollowingplanningassumptions:1. Thepercentchangeinpopulationwithinthestudyareawasvariedbetween+15%and 40%.Changesinpopulationwereappliedtopermanentresidentsonly(asperfederalguidance),inboththeEPZandintheShadowRegion.2. Thetransportationinfrastructureremainedfixed;thepresenceofnewroadsorhighwaycapacityimprovementswerenotconsidered.3. Thestudywa sperformedforthe2 MileRegion(R01),the5 MileRegion(R02)andtheentireEPZ(R03).4. ThegoodweatherscenariowhichyieldedthehighestETEvalueswasselectedasthecasetobeconsideredinthissensitivitystudy(Scenario6).TableM 3presentstheresultsofthesensitivitystudy.SectionIVofAppendixEto10CFRPart50,andNUREG/CR 7002,Section5.4,requirelicenseestoprovideanupdatedETEanalysistotheNRCwh enapopulationincreasewithintheEPZcausesETEvalues(forthe2 MileRegion,5 MileRegionorentireEPZ)toincreas eby25percentor30minutes,whicheverisless.NotethatallofthebaseETEvaluesaregreaterthan2hours;25percentofthebaseETEisalwaysgreaterthan30minutes.Therefore,30minutesisthelesserandisthecriterionforupdating.Thosepercentpopulationchangeswhichre sultinETEchangesgreaterthan30minutesarehighlightedinredbelow-a19%increaseor20%decreaseintheEPZpopulation.EntergywillhavetoestimatetheEPZpopulationonanannualbasis.IftheEPZpopulationincreasesby19%ormore,ordecreasesby20%ormore,anupdatedETEanalysiswillbeneeded.

ArkansasNuclearOneM 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChangeResident Population Base Population Change Base Population Change 15% 18% 19% -15% -19% -20% 52,871 60,802 62,388 62,916 52,871 44,940 42,826 42,297 ETE for 90 th Percentile Region Base Population Change Base Population Change 15% 18% 19% -15% -19% -20% 2-MILE 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 2:05 5-MILE 2:20 2:25 2:25 2:30 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:10 FULL EPZ 3:55 4:10 4:15 4:15 3:55 3:40 3:35 3:30 ETE for 100 th PercentileRegion Base Population Change Base Population Change 15% 18% 19% -15% -19% -20% 2-MILE 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5-MILE 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 FULL EPZ 5:00 5:20 5:25 5:35 5:00 4:50 4:35 4:30 APPENDIXNETECriteriaChecklist ArkansasNuclearOneN 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1N. ETECRITERIACHECKLISTTableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklistNRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments1.0Introductiona. Theemergencyplanningzone(EPZ)andsurroundingareashouldbedescribed.YesSection1b. Amapshouldbeincludedthatidentifiesprimaryfeaturesofthesite,includingmajorroadways,significanttopographicalfeatures,boundariesofcounties,andpopulationcenterswithintheEPZ.YesFigures1 1,3 1c. AcomparisonofthecurrentandpreviousETEshouldbeprovidedandincludessimilarinformationasidentifiedinTable1 1,"ETEComparison,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTable1 31.1Approacha. Adiscussionoftheapproachandlevelofdetailobtainedduringthefieldsurveyoftheroadwaynetworkshouldbeprovided.YesSection1.3b. Sourcesofdemographicdataforschools,specialfacilities,largeemployers,andspecialeventsshouldbeidentified.YesSections2.1,3,8,AppendixEc. Discussionshouldbepresentedonuseoftrafficcontrolplansintheanalysis.YesSection1.3,Section2.2,Section9,AppendixGd. Trafficsimulationmodelsusedfortheanalysesshouldbeidentifiedbynameandversion.YesSection1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC ArkansasNuclearOneN 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Methodsusedtoaddressdatauncertaintiesshouldbedescribed.YesSection3-avoiddoublecountingSection5,AppendixF-4.3%samplingerrorat95%confidenceintervalfortelephonesurvey1.2Assumptionsa. TheplanningbasisfortheETEincludestheassumptionthattheevacuationshouldbeorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.YesSection2.3-Assumption1Section5.1b. AssumptionsconsistentwithTable1 2,"GeneralAssumptions,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludethebasistosupporttheiruse.YesSections2.2,2.31.3ScenarioDevelopmenta. ThetenscenariosinTable1 3,EvacuationScenarios,shouldbedevelopedfortheETEanalysis,orareasonshouldbeprovidedforuseofotherscenarios.YesTables2 1,6 21.3.1StagedEvacuationa. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedontheapproachusedindevelopmentofastagedevacuation.YesSections5.4.2,7.21.4EvacuationPlanningAreasa. AmapofEPZwithemergencyresponseplanningareas(ERPAs)shouldbeincluded.YesFigure6 1b. AtableshouldbeprovidedidentifyingtheERPAsconsideredforeachETEcalculationbydownwinddirectionineachsector.YesTables6 1,7 5,H 1 ArkansasNuclearOneN 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. AtablesimilartoTable1 4,"EvacuationAreasforaStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludesthecompleteevacuationofthe2,5,and10mileareasandforthe2milearea/5milekeyholeevacuations.YesTables7 3,7 42.0DemandEstimationa. Demandestimationshouldbedevelopedforthefourpopulationgroups,includingpermanentresidentsoftheEPZ,transients,specialfacilities,andschools.YesPermanentresidents,employees,transients-Section3,AppendixESchools-Section8,AppendixEMedicalandcorrectionalfacilitiesshelter in place2.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. TheUSCensusshouldbethesourceofthepopulationvalues,oranothercrediblesourceshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.1b. PopulationvaluesshouldbeadjustedasnecessaryforgrowthtoreflectpopulationestimatestotheyearoftheETE.Yes2010usedasthebaseyearforanalysisc. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1,"PopulationbySector,"ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforpermanentresidents.YesFigure3 22.1.1PermanentResidentswithVehiclesa. Thepersonspervehiclevalueshouldbebetween1and2orjustificationshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.Yes1.67personspervehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults-seeTable1 3 ArkansasNuclearOneN 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Majoremployersshouldbelisted.YesAppendixE-TableE 32.1.2TransientPopulationa. Alistoffacilitieswhichattracttransientpopulationsshouldbeincluded,andpeakandaverageattendanceforthesefacilitiesshouldbelisted.Thesourceofinformationusedtodevelopattendancevaluesshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4,AppendixEb. Theaveragepopulationduringtheseasonshouldbeused,itemizedandtotaledforeachscenario.YesTables3 4,3 5andAppendixEitemizethetransientpopulationandemployeeestimates.TheseestimatesaremultipliedbythescenariospecificpercentagesprovidedinTable6 3toestimateaveragetransientpopulationbyscenario.c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsassumedtobeatfacilitiesshouldbeestimated.YesSections3.3,3.4d. Thenumberofpeoplepervehicleshouldbeprovided.Numbersmayvarybyscenario,andifso,discussiononwhyvaluesvaryshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4e. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforthetransientpopulation.YesFigure3 6-transientsFigure3 8-employees2.2TransitDependentPermanentResidentsa. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberoftransitdependentresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.1b. Transportationresourcesneededtoevacuatethisgroupshouldbequantified.YesSection8.1,Table8 4 ArkansasNuclearOneN 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Thecounty/localevacuationplansfortransitdependentresidentsshouldbeusedintheanalysis.YesSections8.1,8.5d. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberofpeoplewithdisabilitiesandthosewithaccessandfunctionalneedswhomayneedassistanceanddonotresideinspecialfacilitiesshouldbeprovided.Datafromlocal/countyregistrationprogramsshouldbeusedintheestimate,butshouldnotbetheonlysetofdata.YesSection8.1.Therearenopeoplewhorequirespecialtransportationtobeevacuated.e. Capacitiesshouldbeprovidedforalltypesoftransportationresources.Busseatingcapacityof50%shouldbeusedorjustificationshouldbeprovidedforhighervalues.YesSection2.3-Assumption10Section8.2f. Anestimateofthispopulationshouldbeprovidedandinformationshouldbeprovidedthattheexistingregistrationprogramswereusedindevelopingtheestimate.YesSection8.1g. Asummarytableofthetotalnumberofbuses,ambulances,orothertransportneededtosupportevacuationshouldbeprovidedandthequantificationofresourcesshouldbedetailedenoughtoassuredoublecountinghasnotoccurred.YesTable8 42.3SpecialFacilityResidentsa. Alistofspecialfacilities,includingthetypeoffacility,location,andaveragepopulationshouldbeprovided.Specialfacilitystaffshouldbeincludedinthetotalspecialfacilitypopulation.YesAppendixE,TablesE 1,E 2,E 7-listfacilities,type,location,andpopulation ArkansasNuclearOneN 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedonhowspecialfacilitydatawasobtained.YesSections8.1through8.4,AppendixEc. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundindividualsshouldbeprovided.YesTables8 3,E 2d. Anestimateofthenumberandcapacityofvehiclesneededtosupporttheevacuationofthefacilityshouldbeprovided.YesAllmedicalandcorrectionalfacilitiesshelter in placee. Thelogisticsformobilizingspeciallytrainedstaff(e.g.,medicalsupportorsecuritysupportforprisons,jails,andothercorrectionalfacilities)shouldbediscussedwhenappropriate.Yes2.4Schoolsa. Alistofschoolsincludingname,location,studentpopulation,andtransportationresourcesrequiredtosupporttheevacuation,shouldbeprovided.Thesourceofthisinformationshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 2Section8.2b. Transportationresourcesforelementaryandmiddleschoolsshouldbebasedon100%oftheschoolcapacity.YesTable8 2c. Theestimateofhighschoolstudentswhowillusetheirpersonalvehicletoevacuateshouldbeprovidedandabasisforthevaluesusedshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.2,Table8 2(footnote),TableE 1(footnote)d. Theneedforreturntripsshouldbeidentifiedifnecessary.YesSeeTable8 4.Therearesufficienttransportationresourcestoevacuateinasinglewave.Noreturntripsareneeded.

ArkansasNuclearOneN 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments2.5.1SpecialEventsa. Acompletelistofspecialeventsshouldbeprovidedandincludesinformationonthepopulation,estimatedduration,andseasonoftheevent.YesSection3.7b. ThespecialeventthatencompassesthepeaktransientpopulationshouldbeanalyzedintheETE.YesSection3.7c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsattendingtheeventshouldbeestimated.YesSection3.72.5.2ShadowEvacuationa. Ashadowevacuationof20percentshouldbeincludedforareasoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesfromtheNPP.YesSection2.2-Assumption5Figures2 1,7 1Section3.2b. Populationestimatesfortheshadowevacuationinthe10to15mileareabeyondtheEPZareprovidedbysector.YesSection3.2Figure3 4Table3 3c. Theloadingoftheshadowevacuationontotheroadwaynetworkshouldbeconsistentwiththetripgenerationtimegeneratedforthepermanentresidentpopulation.YesSection5-Table5 8(footnote)2.5.3BackgroundandPassThroughTraffica. Thevolumeofbackgroundtrafficandpassthroughtrafficisbasedontheaveragedaytimetraffic.Valuesmaybereducedfornighttimescenarios.YesSections3.6,6Tables3 6,6 3,6 4 ArkansasNuclearOneN 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. PassthroughtrafficisassumedtohavestoppedenteringtheEPZabouttwohoursaftertheinitialnotification.YesSection2.3-Assumption5Section3.6Table6 3-ExternalThroughTrafficfootnote2.6SummaryofDemandEstimationa. Asummarytableshouldbeprovidedthatidentifiesthetotalpopulationsandtotalvehiclesusedinanalysisforpermanentresidents,transients,transitdependentresidents,specialfacilities,schools,shadowpopulation,andpass throughdemandusedineachscenario.YesTables3 7,3 83.0RoadwayCapacitya. Themethod(s)usedtoassessroadwaycapacityshouldbediscussed.YesSection43.1RoadwayCharacteristicsa. AfieldsurveyofkeyrouteswithintheEPZhasbeenconducted.YesSection1.3b. Informationshouldbeprovideddescribingtheextentofthesurvey,andtypesofinformationgatheredandusedintheanalysis.YesSection1.3c. AtablesimilartothatinAppendixA,"RoadwayCharacteristics,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovided.YesAppendixK,TableK 1d. Calculationsforarepresentativeroadwaysegmentshouldbeprovided.YesSection4 ArkansasNuclearOneN 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. AlegiblemapoftheroadwaysystemthatidentifiesnodenumbersandsegmentsusedtodeveloptheETEshouldbeprovidedandshouldbesimilartoFigure3 1,"RoadwayNetworkIdentifyingNodesandSegments,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesAppendixK,FiguresK 1throughK 49presenttheentirelink nodeanalysisnetworkatascalesuitabletoidentifyalllinksandnodes3.2CapacityAnalysisa. Theapproachusedtocalculatetheroadwaycapacityforthetransportationnetworkshouldbedescribedindetailandidentifiesfactorsthatshouldbeexpresslyusedinthemodeling.YesSection4b. ThecapacityanalysisidentifieswherefieldinformationshouldbeusedintheETEcalculation.YesSection1.3,Section43.3IntersectionControla. Alistofintersectionsshouldbeprovidedthatincludesthetotalnumberofintersectionsmodeledthatareunsignalized,signalized,ormannedbyresponsepersonnel.YesAppendixK,TableK 2b. Characteristicsforthe10highestvolumeintersectionswithintheEPZareprovidedincludingthelocation,signalcyclelength,andturnlanequeuecapacity.YesTableJ 1c. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonhowsignalcycletimeisusedinthecalculations.YesSection4.1,AppendixC3.4AdverseWeathera. Theadverseweatherconditionshouldbeidentifiedandtheeffectsofadverseweatheronmobilizationtimeshouldbeconsidered.YesTable2 1,Section2.3-Assumption9Mobilizationtime-Table2 2 ArkansasNuclearOneN 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. ThespeedandcapacityreductionfactorsidentifiedinTable3 1,"WeatherCapacityFactors,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeusedorabasisshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.YesTable2 2-basedonHCM2010.ThefactorsprovidedinTable3 1ofNUREG/CR 7002arefromHCM2000.c. Thestudyidentifiesassumptionsforsnowremovalonstreetsanddriveways,whenapplicable.YesNotapplicable-snownotconsideredforthissite4.0DevelopmentofEvacuationTimes4.1TripGenerationTimea. Theprocessusedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesshouldbeidentified.YesSection5b. Whentelephonesurveysareused,thescopeofthesurvey,areaofsurvey,numberofparticipants,andstatisticalrelevanceshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixFc. Dataobtainedfromtelephonesurveysshouldbesummarized.YesAppendixFd. Thetripgenerationtimeforeachpopulationgroupshouldbedevelopedfromsitespecificinformation.YesSection5,AppendixF ArkansasNuclearOneN 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.1.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. Permanentresidentsareassumedtoevacuatefromtheirhomesbutarenotassumedtobeathomeatalltimes.Tripgenerationtimeincludestheassumptionthatapercentageofresidentswillneedtoreturnhomepriortoevacuating.YesSection5discussestripgenerationforhouseholdswithandwithoutreturningcommuters.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofhouseholdswithreturningcommutersandthepercentageofhouseholdseitherwithoutreturningcommutersorwithnocommuters.AppendixFpresentsthepercenthouseholdswhowillawaitthereturnofcommuters.Section2.3,Assumption3b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonthetimeandmethodusedtonotifytransients.Thetripgenerationtimediscussesanydifficultiesnotifyingpersonsinhardtoreachareassuchasonlakesorincampgrounds.YesSection5.4.3c. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsfortransientspotentiallyreturningtohotelspriortoevacuating.YesSection5,Figure5 1d. Effectofpublictransportationresourcesusedduringspecialeventswherealargenumberoftransientsshouldbeexpectedshouldbeconsidered.YesSection3.7e. Thetripgenerationtimeforthetransientpopulationshouldbeintegratedandloadedontothetransportationnetworkwiththegeneralpublic.YesSection5,Table5 8 ArkansasNuclearOneN 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.1.2TransitDependentResidentsa. Ifavailable,existingplansandbusroutesshouldbeusedintheETEanalysis.IfnewplansshouldbedevelopedwiththeETE,theyhavebeenagreeduponbytheresponsibleauthorities.YesSection8.5-transit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspopulationevacuatedinpolicecruisersorotheremergencyworkervehicles.b. Discussionshouldbeincludedonthemeansofevacuatingambulatoryandnonambulatoryresidents.YesSection8.5.Allregisteredtransitdependentresidentsareambulatory.c. Thenumber,location,andavailabilityofbuses,andotherresourcesneededtosupportthedemandestimationshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 4d. Logisticaldetails,suchasthetimetoobtainbuses,briefdrivers,andinitiatethebusrouteshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.5e. Discussionshouldidentifythetimeestimatedfortransitdependentresidentstoprepareandtraveltoabuspickuppoint,anddescribestheexpectedmeansoftraveltothepickuppoint.YesNotapplicable.Residentsarepickedupathomebypolicecruisersorotheremergencyworkervehicles.f. Thenumberofbusstopsandtimeneededtoloadpassengersshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.5g. Amapofbusroutesshouldbeincluded.YesNotapplicable.Residentsarepickedupathomebypolicecruisersorotheremergencyworkervehicles.h. Thetripgenerationtimefornonambulatorypersonsincludesthetimetomobilizeambulancesorspecialvehicles,timetodrivetothehomeofresidents,loadingtime,andtimetodriveoutoftheEPZshouldbeprovided.YesAllregisteredtransitdependentresidentsareambulatory.

ArkansasNuclearOneN 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsi. Informationshouldbeprovidedtosupportsanalysisofreturntrips,ifnecessary.YesSeeTable8 4.Therearesufficienttransportationresourcestoevacuateinasinglewave.Noreturntripsareneeded.4.1.3SpecialFacilitiesa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimesshouldbeprovided.YesAllmedicalandcorrectionalfacilitiesshelter in placeb. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.Yesc. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundsindividualsshouldbeprovided,andthelogisticsofevacuatingtheseresidentsshouldbediscussed.Yesd. TimeforloadingofresidentsshouldbeprovidedYese. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsshouldbeneeded.Yesf. Ifreturntripsshouldbeneeded,thedestinationofvehiclesshouldbeprovided.Yesg. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherspecialfacilityresidentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.Yesh. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.Yes ArkansasNuclearOneN 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.1.4Schoolsa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.6b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesOutboundschoolbusspeedsarepresentedinTables8 6through8 8Schoolbusesarekeptatschools-inboundspeedarenotapplicablec. Timeforloadingofstudentsshouldbeprovided.YesTables8 6through8 8,DiscussioninSection8.6d. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsareneeded.YesSection8.6-page856Table8 4e. Ifreturntripsareneeded,thedestinationofschoolbusesshouldbeprovided.YesNotapplicable.Returntripsarenotneeded.f. Ifused,receptioncentersshouldbeidentified.Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherstudentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesTable8 2.Studentsareevacuatedtoreceptioncenterswheretheywillbepickedupbyparentsorguardiansg. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesNotapplicable.Returntripsarenotneeded.4.2ETEModelinga. GeneralinformationaboutthemodelshouldbeprovidedanddemonstratesitsuseinETEstudies.YesDYNEVII(Ver.4.0.8.0)System.Section1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC ArkansasNuclearOneN 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. IfatrafficsimulationmodelisnotusedtoconducttheETEcalculation,sufficientdetailshouldbeprovidedtovalidatetheanalyticalapproachused.Allcriteriaelementsshouldhavebeenmet,asappropriate.YesNotapplicableasatrafficsimulationmodelwasused4.2.1TrafficSimulationModelInputa. Trafficsimulationmodelassumptionsandarepresentativesetofmodelinputsshouldbeprovided.YesAppendicesBandCdescribethesimulationmodelassumptionsandalgorithmsTableJ 2-modelinputsb. Aglossaryoftermsshouldbeprovidedforthekeyperformancemeasuresandparametersusedintheanalysis.YesAppendixATablesC 1,C 24.2.2TrafficSimulationModelOutputa. AdiscussionregardingwhetherthetrafficsimulationmodelusedmustbeinequilibrationpriortocalculatingtheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixB ArkansasNuclearOneN 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Theminimumfollowingmodeloutputsshouldbeprovidedtosupportreview:1. TotalvolumeandpercentbyhourateachEPZexitnode.2. Networkwideaveragetraveltime.3. Longestqueuelengthforthe10intersectionswiththehighesttrafficvolume.4. Totalvehiclesexitingthenetwork.5. AplotthatprovidesboththemobilizationcurveandevacuationcurveidentifyingthecumulativepercentageofevacueeswhohavemobilizedandexitedtheEPZ.6. AveragespeedforeachmajorevacuationroutethatexitstheEPZ.Yes1. TableJ 5.2. TableJ 3.3. TableJ 1.4. TableJ 3.5. FiguresJ 1throughJ 14(oneplotforeachscenarioconsidered

).6. TableJ 4.NetworkwideaveragespeedalsoprovidedinTableJ 3.c. Colorcodedroadwaymapsshouldbeprovidedforvarioustimes(i.e.,at2,4,6hrs.,etc.)duringafullEPZevacuationscenario,identifyingareaswherelongqueuesexistincludinglevelofservice(LOS)"E"andLOS"F"conditions,iftheyoccur.YesFigures7 3through7 84.3EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheGeneralPublica. TheETEshouldincludethetimetoevacuate90%and100%ofthetotalpermanentresidentandtransientpopulationYesTables7 1,7 2b. TheETEfor100%ofthegeneralpublicshouldincludeallmembersofthegeneralpublic.Anyreductionsortruncateddatashouldbeexplained.YesSection5.4-truncatingsurveydatatoeliminatestatisticaloutliersTable7 2-100 thpercentileETEforgeneralpopulation ArkansasNuclearOneN 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Tablesshouldbeprovidedforthe90and100percentETEssimilartoTable4 3,"ETEsforStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTables7 3,7 4d. ETEsshouldbeprovidedforthe100percentevacuationofspecialfacilities,transitdependent,andschoolpopulations.YesMedicalandcorrectionalfacilitiesshelter in placeTransitdependent-Section8.5Schools-Section8.65.0OtherConsiderations5.1DevelopmentofTrafficControlPlansa. Informationthatresponsibleauthoritieshaveapprovedthetrafficcontrolplanusedintheanalysisshouldbeprovided.YesSection9,AppendixG.Theexistingtrafficmanagementplanswereused.Nochangestotheplansareneeded.b. AdiscussionofadjustmentsoradditionstothetrafficcontrolplanthataffecttheETEshouldbeprovided.Yes5.2EnhancementsinEvacuationTimea. Theresultsofassessmentsforimprovementofevacuationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixMb. Astatementordiscussionregardingpresentationofenhancementstolocalauthoritiesshouldbeprovided.YesResultsoftheETEstudywereformallypresentedtoEntergy,countyandstateOEMsduringtheETEresultsconferencecall.Recommendedenhancementswerediscussed5.3StateandLocalReviewa. Alistofagenciescontactedandtheextentofinteractionwiththeseagenciesshouldbediscussed.YesTable1 1 ArkansasNuclearOneN 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. InformationshouldbeprovidedonanyunresolvedissuesthatmayaffecttheETE.YesNounresolvedissues5.4ReviewsandUpdatesa. AdiscussionofwhenanupdatedETEanalysisisrequiredtobeperformedandsubmittedtotheNRC.YesAppendixM,SectionM.35.5ReceptionCentersandCongregateCareCentera. Amapofcongregatecarecentersandreceptioncentersshouldbeprovided.YesFigure10 1b. Ifreturntripsarerequired,assumptionsusedtoestimatereturntimesforbusesshouldbeprovided.YesSeeTable8 4.Therearesufficientresourcestoevacuateinasinglewave.Noreturntripsareneeded.c. Itshouldbeclearlystatedifitisassumedthatpassengersareleftatthereceptioncenterandaretakenbyseparatebusestothecongregatecarecenter.YesSection2.3-Assumption7eSection10TechnicalReviewer_________________

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