ML13023A070

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Kld TR-524, Rev. 1, Grand Gulf Nuclear Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report
ML13023A070
Person / Time
Site: Grand Gulf Entergy icon.png
Issue date: 11/30/2012
From:
KLD Engineering, PC
To:
NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Entergy Operations
Shared Package
ML130230023 List:
References
CNRO-2012-00013, ENOC-2012-00038 KLD TR-524, Rev 1
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November2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-524 GrandGulfNuclearStationDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforEntergy,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com GrandGulfNuclearStationiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 11.2TheGrandGulfNuclearPowerPlantLocation..........................................................................1 31.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 51.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy..............................................................................................1 92STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 83.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 113.4Employees...............................................................................................................................

.3 153.5MedicalFacilities......................................................................................................................3 183.6TotalDemandinAddi tiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 183.7SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 183.8CorrectionalFacilities...............................................................................................................3 193.9SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 214ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEsti mationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtotheGrandGulfNuclearStationStudyArea........................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Intersections......................................................................................................................4 74.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 75ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background...............................................................................................................................

.5 15.2FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 115.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 125.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 165.4.3TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................5 176DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 17.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................7 1 GrandGulfNuclearStationiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 17.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 27.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 37.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 37.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 47.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 58TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 48.3MedicalFacilityDemand............................................................................................................8 48.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................8 58.5SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................8 108.6CorrectionalFacilities...............................................................................................................8 119TRAFF ICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUATIONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 111SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS...........................................................................11 112CONFIRMATIONTIME..................................................................................................................12 1A.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 13C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 13C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 13C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssign ment(DTRAD)...................................................C 16D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.SPECIALFACILITYDATA......................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.3SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F 3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F 3F.3.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F 8F.3.4TimeDistributionResults.......................................................................................................F 9F.4Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 11G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1 GrandGulfNuclearStationiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G.2AccessControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1HEVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.PAS/PAABOUNDARIES.....................................................................................................................L 1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofCha ngesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentionallyskipped GrandGulfNuclearStationivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofFiguresFigure1 1.GGNSLocation........................................................................................................................1 4Figure1 2.GGNSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork.........................................................................................1 7Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.GGNSEPZ...............................................................................................................................

.3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 6Figure3 3.PermanentRe sidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 7Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 9Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector...................................................................................................3 10Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 13Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 14Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 16Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 17Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams............................................................................................................4 8Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 10Figure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................5 14Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 19Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion.......................................................................................................5 21Figure6 1.GGNSEPZPAS/PAA...............................................................................................................6 5Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................7 16Figure7 2.GGNSShadowRegion...........................................................................................................7 17Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................7 18Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1houraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 19Figure7 5.CongestionPa tternsat1hourand30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..................7 20Figure7 6:CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate...........................................7 21Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat2Hoursand55MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate................7 22Figure7 8.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03......................................................7 23Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03......................................................7 23Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................7 24Figure7 11.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................7 24Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 15.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 16.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................7 27Figure7 18.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................7 28Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................7 28Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................8 12Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes.............................................................................................8 13Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationandSchoolReceptionCenters............................................................10 2Figure10 2.MajorEvacuationRoutesfortheGGNSEPZ.......................................................................10 3FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 5 GrandGulfNuclearStationvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 7FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 15FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZ.....................................................................................E 7FigureE 2.SchoolsandDaycareswithinPortGibson,MS.......................................................................E 8FigureE 3.Medi calFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 9FigureE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 10FigureE 5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ........................................................................................E 11FigureE 6.LodgingwithintheEPZ..........................................................................................................E 12FigureE 7.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ...................................................................................E 13FigureE 8.HuntingandFishingCampswithintheEPZ..........................................................................E 14FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 3FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 4FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to10PersonHouseholds....................................................................F 5FigureF 5.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 6FigureF 6.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 7FigureF 7.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F 8FigureF 8.Ti meRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..................................................................F 9FigureF 9.WorktoHomeTravelTime...................................................................................................F 10FigureF 10.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 11FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsandAccessControlPointsfortheGGNSSite.....................................G 2FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 4FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 6.RegionR06.............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 7.RegionR07...........................................................................................................................H 10FigureH 8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H 12FigureH 10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H 13FigureH 11.RegionR11.........................................................................................................................H 14FigureH 12.RegionR12.........................................................................................................................H 15FigureH 13.RegionR13.........................................................................................................................H 16FigureH 14.RegionR14.........................................................................................................................H 17FigureH 15.RegionR15.........................................................................................................................H 18FigureH 16.RegionR16.........................................................................................................................H 19FigureH 17.RegionR17.........................................................................................................................H 20FigureH 18.RegionR18.........................................................................................................................H 21FigureH 19.RegionR19.........................................................................................................................H 22FigureH 20.RegionR20.........................................................................................................................H 23FigureH 21.RegionR21.........................................................................................................................H 24FigureH 22.RegionR22.........................................................................................................................H 25FigureH 23.RegionR23.........................................................................................................................H 26 GrandGulfNuclearStationviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 24.RegionR24.........................................................................................................................H 27FigureH 25.RegionR25.........................................................................................................................H 28FigureH 26.RegionR26.........................................................................................................................H 29FigureH 27.RegionR27.........................................................................................................................H 30FigureH 28.RegionR28.........................................................................................................................H 31FigureH 29.RegionR29.........................................................................................................................H 32FigureH 30.RegionR30.........................................................................................................................H 33FigureH 31.RegionR31.........................................................................................................................H 34FigureH 32.RegionR32.........................................................................................................................H 35FigureH 33.RegionR33.........................................................................................................................H 36FigureH 34.RegionR34.........................................................................................................................H 37FigureH 35.RegionR35.........................................................................................................................H 38FigureH 36.RegionR36.........................................................................................................................H 39FigureH 37.RegionR37.........................................................................................................................H 40FigureH 38.RegionR38.........................................................................................................................H 41FigureH 39.RegionR39.........................................................................................................................H 42FigureH 40.RegionR40.........................................................................................................................H 43FigureH 41.RegionR41.........................................................................................................................H 44FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 8FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 8FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J 9FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J 9FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)......................................................................................J 10FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)..............J 10FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J 11FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario8)..............J 11FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)...............................J 12FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario10)................................................................................................J 12FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)...................................................................................................J 13FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)....................................................................J 13FigureK 1.GrandGulfLi nk NodeAnalysisNetwork................................................................................K 2FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K 3FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2.....................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K 9FigureK 9.Li nk NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K 10FigureK 10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K 11FigureK 11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K 12FigureK 12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K 13FigureK 13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K 14 GrandGulfNuclearStationviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K 15FigureK 15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K 16FigureK 16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K 17FigureK 17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K 18FigureK 18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K 19FigureK 19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K 20FigureK 20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K 21FigureK 21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K 22FigureK 22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K 23FigureK 23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K 24FigureK 24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K 25FigureK 25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K 26 GrandGulfNuclearStationviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 1Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 5Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons..........................................................................................................1 10Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 7Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPAS/PAA...................................................3 5Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 8Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 12Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 15Table3 6.GGNSEPZExternalTraffic......................................................................................................3 20Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 22Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 23Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.MappingDistri butionstoEvents............................................................................................5 11Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 12Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuation.....................5 18Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.........................5 20Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRe gions...........................................................................................6 3Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 6Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 7Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario..................................................................................................6 8Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation...........................7 8Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 10Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 12Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 13Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 14Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................8 14Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................8 15Table8 3.SchoolReceptionCenters......................................................................................................8 16Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemand............................................................................................8 17Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 18Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 19Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................8 20Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain...............................................................................8 21Table8 9.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutes..........................................................................8 22Table8 10.Tran sit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................8 23Table8 11.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................8 24Table8 12.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather.............................................8 25Table8 13.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain..............................................................8 25 GrandGulfNuclearStationixKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 14.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates....................................8 26Table8 15.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsEvacuationTimeEstimatesSecondWaveforAmbulatoryusingSchoolBuses.................................................................8 26Table8 16.CorrectionalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesSecondWaveforAmbulatory................8 27Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation..............12 2TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 8TableE 1.Schools&DaycareswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 2TableE 2.Me dicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ...............................................................................................E 3TableE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 4TableE 4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 5TableE 5.Lo dgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 6TableE 6.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ.......................................................................................E 6TableF 1.GGNSTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan...................................................................................F 2TableH 1.PercentofPAS/PAAPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion...............................................H 2TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHi ghestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 4TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J 5TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario6)................................................................................................J 6TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario6.........................J 7TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 27TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled...........................................K 49TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1

GrandGulfNuclearStationES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheGrandGulfNuclearStation(GGNS)locatedinClaiborneCounty,MS.ETEarepartoftherequiredplanningbasisandprovideEntergyandStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveAc tiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMA REP 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. 10CFR50,AppendixE-"EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities"OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinApril,2012andextendedoveraperiodofsixmonths.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingswithEntergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010.StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GI S)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheGGNS,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetwork. SynthesizedthisinformationtocreateananalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweenth eEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey. Datacollectionforms(providedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting)werereturnedwithdatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andspecialfacilitiesineachcountyandparish.

GrandGulfNuclearStationES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Thetrafficdemandandtrip generationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto16PAS/PAA.ThesePAS/PAAarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof41EvacuationRegions. Thetime varyingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain).OnespecialeventscenarioinvolvingafootballgameatAlcornStateUniversitywasconsidered.OneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonUS61northboundforthedurationofth eevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2 mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5mileswereevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: Arapidlyescalatingaccidentatth eGGNSthatquicklyassumesthestatusofGeneralEmergencysuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedinatimelymannerfollowingthesirennotification,andnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthestatedpercentageofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncenterslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtonotpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthecountyevac uationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllikewisebeevacuatedwithpublictransit,asneeded:bus,van,orambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEarecalculatedforthetransit dependentevacu ees,forhomeboundspecialneedspopulation,andforthoseevacuatedfromspecialfacilities.ComputationofETEAtotalof492ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe41EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe12 GrandGulfNuclearStationES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EvacuationScenarios(41x12=492).SeparateETEarecalculatedfortransit dependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofETEassumesth at20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidetheimpactedregion,willelectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.Theimpedanceth atcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter in place.Once90%ofthe2 mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillev acuate(non compliance)eventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter in place.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Ea chlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwi thfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),thensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofth epopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.Thesestatisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.Theuseofapublicoutreach(information)programtoemphasizetheneedforevacueestominimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(securethehome,as sembleneededclothes, GrandGulfNuclearStationES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1medicines,etc.)shouldalsobeconsidered.TrafficManagementThisstudyreferencesthecomprehensivetrafficmanagementplansprovidedbyClaiborneCounty,MSandTensasParish,LA.DuetothelimitedtrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ,noadditionaltrafficoraccesscontrolmeasureshavebeenidentifiedasaresultofthisstudy.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformofFiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6 1displaysamapoftheGGNSEPZshowingthelayoutofthe16PAS/PAAthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3 1presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachPAS/PAAbasedonthe2010Censusdata. Table6 1definesea chofthe41EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofPAS/PAA. Table6 2liststheEvacuationScenarios. Tables7 1and7 2arecompilationsofETE.The sedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherregionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Tables7 3and7 4presentsETEforthe2 mileregionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table8 7presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. Table8 10presentsETEforthetransit dependentpopulationingoodweather. FigureH 8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.Mapsofal lregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor492uniquecases-acombinationof41uniqueEvacuationRegionsand12uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheseETErangefrom1:25(hr:min)to2:30atthe90 thpercentile. InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile(seeFigures7 8through7 19).Thisisduetothefactthattheresidentmobilizationcurvehasalong"tail";relativelyfewevacueestakealongtimetomobilize. InspectionofTable7 3andTable7 4indicatesthatastagedevacuationprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles(compareRegionsR02,R04throughR09with GrandGulfNuclearStationES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RegionsR35throughR41,respectively,inTables7 1and7 2).SeeSection7.6foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios10(winter,midweek/weekend,evening)and11(winter,weekend,evening)inTable7 2indicatesthatthespecialeventdoesnotmateriallyaffecttheETEatthe100 thpercentile,butincreasestheETEatthe90 thpercentileforregionsincludingPAS/PAA6byupto35minutes.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and12inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-theclosureofonelaneonUS61northboundfromtheboundaryofPortGibsontotheEPZboundary(bytheClai borneCountyline)-doesnothaveanimpactonthe90 thpercentileETE.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ThroughouttheevacuationtheEPZisfreefromcongestion,withtheexceptionoftheexitroadwaysfromtheAlcornStateUniversity.ThemostcongestedareainthenetworkisSR522fromtheUniversitytoUS61SB.By2hoursand20minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,trafficismovingatfre e flowspeed(LOSA)onallroadwayswithintheEPZ(Scenario6,R03).SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 7. SeparateETEwerecomputedforschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpersons,homeboundspecialneedspersonsandcorrectionalfacilities.TheaveragesinglewaveETEforschoolsandmedicalfacilitiesarewithinasimilarrangeasthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile;theETEfortransit dependents,homeboundspecialneedspersonsandthecorrectionalfacilityareslightlylongeronaverage.SeeSection8. Table8 5indicatesthattherearesufficienttransportationresourcesavailabletoevacuatethepublicschoolsinboththecountyandparish,butnotallthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZinasinglewave.Therearealsonotenoughambulancestoevacuatethebedriddenpopul ationinasinglewave.Thesecond waveETEforambulancesandspecialneedspopulationdoesexceedthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile.SeeSections8.4and8.5. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe100 thpercentilecloselyfollowsthetripgenerationtimeduetoalackofcongestionwithintheEPZ.The90 thpercentileETEarelesssensitivetotruncatingthetailofthemobilizationtimedistribution,sincethemobilizationtimeofthebulkofevacueesisunchanged.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion(triplingtheshadowevacuationpercentagedoesnotincreas e90 thor100 thpercentileETE).SeeTableM 2. Populationchangesof50and75%donotresultinETEchangeswhichmeetthecriteriaforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.Apopulationincreaseof160%isneededtoincreasethe90 thpercentileETEby30minutes.SeeSectionM.3.

GrandGulfNuclearStationES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.GGNSEPZPAS/PAA GrandGulfNuclearStationES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationPAS/PAA2000Population2007Population2010Population1104100432A3563423052B1501441513A9839469613B5064873884A2,8922,7782,4074B5645414535A1631561385B39638135662,0572,2582,62973328816314812691,8921,7081,18510431388394111,5301,3811,40312TOTAL12,19011,76110,967EPZPopulationGrowth(2000to2010): 10.03%

GrandGulfNuclearStationES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAS/PAA 12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112 R012 MileRingxR025 MileRingxx x x xx R03FullEPZxx x x x x x x xxx x x x x xEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA 12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112 R04WSW,W,WNW,xx N/ANNERefertoRegion01R05NE,ENExxR06Exx xR07ESE,SE,SSExx xR08Sxx xR09SSWxxN/ASWRefertoRegion01Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA 12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112 N/ANRefertoRegion04R10NNExxx R11NE,ENExx xx R12Exx x x xR13ESExx x x x x xR14SExx x x x x xR15SSExx x x x xR16Sxx x x xxR17SSWxx xxR18SWxx xxx x R19WSWxx xxx x x x R20Wxx x x x x GrandGulfNuclearStationES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RegionDescriptionPAS/PAA 12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112 R21WNWxx x x x R22NW,NNWxx x xEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA 12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112 N/ANRefertoRegion02R23NNExx x x xx x R24NE,ENExx x x x xx x R25Exx x x x x xx R26ESExx x x x x x xx R27SExx x x x x x xx R28SSExx x x x x xx R29Sxx x x x x xxx R30SSWxx x x x xxx R31SWxx x x x xxx x x R32WSW,Wxx x x xx x x x x R33WNWxx x x xx x x x x x R34NW,NNWxx x x xx x xEvacuate2 MileRadiusandStagedDownwindto5Miles RegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA 12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112 R355MileRingxx x x xx R36WSW,W,WNW,xx N/ANNERefertoRegion01R37NE,ENExxR38Exx xR39ESE,SE,SSExx xR40Sxx xR41SSWxxN/ASWRefertoRegion01 GrandGulfNuclearStationES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11WinterWeekendEveningGoodAlcornStateUniversityfootballgame12SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonUS611Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

GrandGulfNuclearStationES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R01R022:102:152:052:052:002:102:102:052:052:002:002:10R02R032:202:202:052:052:002:152:152:002:052:002:302:20R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR041:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R04R052:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:052:052:002:002:05R05R062:052:102:052:052:002:052:102:052:052:002:002:05R06R072:102:102:052:052:002:052:102:002:052:002:002:10R07R082:052:102:002:052:002:052:102:002:052:002:002:05R08R092:002:052:002:052:002:002:052:002:052:002:002:00R092 MileRegionandKeyholeto10MilesR102:052:052:052:052:052:052:052:052:052:002:002:05R10R112:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:052:052:002:002:05R11R122:052:102:052:052:002:052:102:052:052:002:002:10R12R132:152:152:052:052:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:15R13R142:152:152:052:102:052:152:152:052:052:051:552:15R14R152:102:152:052:052:002:102:102:052:052:001:552:10R15R162:102:152:002:052:002:102:102:002:051:552:302:10R16R172:102:102:002:001:552:002:052:002:001:552:302:10R17R182:102:102:002:001:552:052:052:002:001:552:302:10R18R192:102:102:002:001:552:052:052:002:001:552:302:10R19R202:152:202:002:002:002:152:152:002:001:551:552:15R20R212:102:102:002:001:552:102:101:552:001:551:552:10R21R222:052:052:002:001:552:052:051:552:001:551:552:05R22 GrandGulfNuclearStationES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpact5 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR232:102:152:052:102:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:10R23R242:102:152:052:102:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:10R24R252:102:152:052:052:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:10R25R262:152:152:052:102:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:15R26R272:152:152:052:102:002:152:152:052:052:001:552:15R27R282:152:152:052:102:002:102:152:052:052:001:552:15R28R292:152:152:052:052:002:102:102:052:052:002:302:15R29R302:152:152:052:052:002:102:102:002:052:002:302:15R30R312:152:152:002:052:002:102:102:002:052:002:302:15R31R322:152:152:052:052:002:152:152:052:052:002:002:15R32R332:152:152:052:052:002:152:152:052:052:002:002:15R33R342:102:152:052:052:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:10R34StagedEvacuation5 MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR352:102:152:052:052:002:102:102:052:052:002:002:10R35R361:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R36R372:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:052:052:002:002:05R37R382:052:102:052:052:002:052:102:052:052:002:002:05R38R392:102:102:052:052:002:052:102:002:052:002:002:10R39R402:052:102:002:052:002:052:102:002:001:551:552:05R40R412:002:052:002:001:552:002:052:002:001:551:552:00R41 GrandGulfNuclearStationES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R01R024:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R02R034:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R04R054:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R05R064:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R06R074:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R07R084:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R08R094:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R092 MileRegionandKeyholeto10MilesR104:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R10R114:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R11R124:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R12R134:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R13R144:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R14R154:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R15R164:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R16R174:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R17R184:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R18R194:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R19R204:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R20R214:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R21R224:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R22 GrandGulfNuclearStationES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpact5 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR234:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R23R244:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R24R254:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R25R264:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R26R274:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R27R284:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R28R294:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R29R304:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R30R314:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R31R324:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R32R334:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R33R344:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R34StagedEvacuation5 MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR354:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R35R364:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R36R374:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R37R384:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R38R394:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R39R404:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R40R414:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R41 GrandGulfNuclearStationES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpact2 Mileand5 MileRegionR011:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R01R021:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R022 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR041:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R04R051:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R05R061:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R06R071:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R07R081:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R08R091:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R09StagedEvacuation5 MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR351:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R35R361:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R36R371:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R37R381:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R38R391:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R39R401:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R40R411:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R41 GrandGulfNuclearStationES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpact2 Mileand5 MileRegionR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R01R024:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R022 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R04R054:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R05R064:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R06R074:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R07R084:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R08R094:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R09StagedEvacuation5 MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR354:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R35R364:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R36R374:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R37R384:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R38R394:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R39R404:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R40R414:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R41 GrandGulfNuclearStationES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobili zationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)Average Speed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)BusReadyForSecondWave(min)SecondWaveETE(hr:min)SecondWaveETEtoR.C.CLAIBORNESCHOOLSA.W.WatsonElementarySchool90156.142.891:5539.1522:502404:255:15RichardsonHeadstart90155.943.881:5539.1522:452404:255:15ChildDayCareKindergarten90155.943.881:5539.1522:452404:255:15HeavenlyAngelsDaycare90154.251.351:5039.1522:452384:205:10PortGibsonHigh90155.647.071:5539.1522:452394:255:15ClaiborneCountyVo Tech90155.745.081:5539.1522:452404:255:15Katherine'sDaycareandLearning90156.142.991:5539.1522:502404:255:15PortGibsonMiddleSchool90154.748.061:5539.1522:452384:205:15ConcernedCitizensDaycare90154.748.061:5539.1522:452384:205:15ChamberlainHuntAcademy90154.748.061:5539.1522:452384:205:15LittleKidsUniversity90154.748.061:5539.1522:452384:205:15ClaiborneEducationalFoundation90154.251.351:5039.1522:452384:205:10God'sLittleBee'sChildCare90156.246.981:5539.1522:452404:255:15AlcornStateUniversity90150.428.511:5038.1512:402324:105:00TENSASSCHOOLSNewelltonChristianAcademy90151.331.031:5025.9352:252304:104:45NewelltonElementary90151.331.031:5025.9352:252304:104:45LittleGreenNursery90153.733.771:5525.9352:301803:254:00TensasAcademy90153.733.771:5535.4472:401803:254:10TensasHighSchool90152.537.741:5035.4472:401803:204:10TensasElementary90152.537.741:5035.4472:401803:204:10MaximumforEPZ:1:55Maximum:2:50Maximum:4:255:15AverageforEPZ:1:50Average:2:45Average:4:105:00 GrandGulfNuclearStationES 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)1110512.455.014302:3022.02951059304:45231056.052.47302:2539.15251067305:1021206.051.77302:4039.15251067305:25311057.555.08302:2525.93551053304:40421055.639.88302:2535.44751063305:0021205.642.68302:4035.44751064305:15511051.241.42302:2033.44551048304:4011201.241.32302:3533.44551048304:55641053.139.35302:2038.15151060305:0021203.139.35302:3538.15151060305:15721055.555.06302:2518.12451037304:1511205.555.06302:4018.12451037304:30MaximumETE:2:40MaximumETE:5:25AverageETE:2:30AverageETE:4:55 GrandGulfNuclearStationES 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 GrandGulfNuclearStation1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheGrandGulfNuclearStation(GGNS),locatedinClaiborneCounty,MS.ETEprovideStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionEntergyemergencyplanningpersonnelMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagenciesClaiborneCountyandTensasParishEmergencyManagementplannersMeetingstodefinedatarequirements,setupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagencies,andobtainspecialeventdataMississippiEmergencyManagementAgencyObtainexistingstateradiologicalmanagementplansLouisianaDepartmentofEnvironmentalQualityObtaintheLouisianaPeacetimeRadiologicalResponsePlanLocalandStatePoliceAgenciesincludingASUPoliceObtainexistingtrafficmanagementplans,obtain1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:

GrandGulfNuclearStation1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromEntergy.b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromTensasParish,ClaiborneCounty,andMEMAtoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatrafficconditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andShadowRegion.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromthe2010censusandlocalagenciesregardingAlcornStateUniversitypopulation.e. ReanalyzedpreviousrandomtelephonesamplesurveyofEPZresidents.f. Conductedandreviewpreviousdatacollectionefforttoidentifyanddescribeschools,specialfacilities,majoremployers,transportationproviders,andotherimportantinformation.2. EstimateddistributionsofTripGenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelephonesurvey.3. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdiff erentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.4. Reviewedtheexistingtrafficmanagementplantobeimplementedbylocalandstatepoliceintheeventofanincidentattheplant.Trafficcontrolisappliedatspecif iedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. UsedexistingProtectiveActionSections(LA)andProtectiveActionAreas(MA)todefineEvacuationRegions.TheEPZispartitionedinto16PAS/PAAalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguousPAS/PAAforwhichETEarecalculat ed.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsat"Speci alFacilities"andfortransit dependentpersonsathome.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystem.a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,Entergyandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapa cityManual(HCM 1)1HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.

GrandGulfNuclearStation1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelink noderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.e. Specifiedselectedcand idatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationoftheGGNS.8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltodetermineoptimalevacuat ionroutingandcomputeETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,medicalfacilities,etc.),forthetransit dependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.1.2 TheGrandGulfNuclearPowerPlantLocationTheGrandGulfNuclearStationislocatedalongtheMississippiRiverinClaiborneCounty,MS.Thesiteisapproximately50milessouthwestofJackson,MSand25milesdirectlysouthofVicksburg,MS.TheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)consistsofpartsofClaiborneCounty,MSandTensasParish,LA.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingtheGGNS.Thismapidentifiesthecommunitiesintheareaandthemajorroads.

GrandGulfNuclearStation1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.GGNSLocation GrandGulfNuclearStation1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewaysections,avalueof2250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe GrandGulfNuclearStation1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereob served,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpre timed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakenin2007togatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateelementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).

GrandGulfNuclearStation1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.GGNSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork GrandGulfNuclearStation1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DT A),modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbased,anddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode. NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuationTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCode.Theevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationoftheGGNS.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthat GrandGulfNuclearStation1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1aredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthesecountermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththe2007study.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: ChangeswhichcauseanincreaseintheETE:o Anincreaseinthemobilizationtimeforresidentswithcommuters,resultingfromanimprovementinthestatisticaloutliermethodologyappliedtothetelephonesurveyresults. ChangeswhichcauseadecreaseinETE:o Thehighwayrepresentationismoredetailed.o Dynamicevacuationmodelingused.o Decrease(10%)inpermanentresidentpopulation.o Adecreaseinshadowandvoluntaryevacuationbyasmuchas30%.o Theproceduresoutlinedinthe2010HCMresultinslightlyhigherbaselineroadwayca pacitiesthantheproceduresintheHCM2000.o Evacuationmodelimprovements-theDYNEVIIsystemusesDynamicTrafficAssignment(SeeAppendicesBandC)whichadjustsroutingtoavoidtrafficcongestiontotheextentfeasible(similartoamodernGPS).

GrandGulfNuclearStation1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasis2000USCensusDataextrapolatedto2007;Population=11,761ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused.ASUProvidecensusforPAA6.Population=10,967ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancy2.71persons/household,1.46evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:1.86persons/vehicle.2.71persons/household,1.46evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:1.86persons/vehicle.EmployeePopulationDatarequestformssenttomajoremployers.CensusjourneytoworkdatafilesforMississippiandLouisianaidentifiedtheproportionofemployeeswhocommuteintotheEPZrelativetothetotalnumberofemployees.Theseproportionswereappliedtototalemploymentfromthedatarequestforms.StudentscommutingtoAlcornStateUniversitytreatedasemployeesduetosimilartravelpatterns.1.04employees/vehiclebasedonphonesurveyresults.EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZ.1.04employeespervehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults.Employees=1,058TransitDependentPopulationDefinedashouseholdswith0vehicles+householdswith1vehiclewithcommuterswhodonotreturnhome+householdswith2vehicleswithcommuterswhodonotreturnhome.EstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Atotalof644peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring22busestoevacuate.Anadditional164homeboundspecialneedspersonsneededspecialtransportationtoevacuate(46requiredabus,56requiredawheelchair accessiblevehicle,and62requiredanambulance).TransientPopulationTransientestimatesbasedoninformationfromcollectedthroughlocalcountyandparishsources.Transients=2,958Transientestimatesbaseduponinformationprovidedbythecountyandparishemergencymanagementdepartments.Transients=2,893 GrandGulfNuclearStation1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudySpecialFacilitiesPopulationSpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcounty/parishwithintheEPZ.Currentcensus=211BusesRequired=3WheelchairBusRequired=18AmbulancesRequired=9Specialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcounty/parishwithintheEPZ.Currentcensus=188BusesRequired=6WheelchairBusRequired=3AmbulancesRequired=13Onecorrectionalfacility,currentcensus=25SchoolPopulationSchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbylocalcountyandparishsources.Schoolenrollment=3.150BusesRequired=61SchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountyandparishwithintheEPZ.DetailedinformationregardingASUcanbefoundinSection3.3.Schoolenrollment=7,328Busesrequired=71VoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuated50percentofpopulationwithinthecircularportionoftheregion;35percent,inannularringbetweenthecircleandtheEPZboundary.20percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)ShadowEvacuation30%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheshadowarea.20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFigure7 2)NetworkSize493links;389nodes506links;417nodesRoadwayGeometricDataFieldsurveysconductedin2006.Majorintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2000HCM.FieldsurveysconductedinApril2012.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter.DirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter.Ridesharing50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.

GrandGulfNuclearStation1 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTripGenerationforEvacuationBasedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and240minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and180minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and120minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateforallabove.Basedonresi dentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and285minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween5and225minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween5and165minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherNormalorRain.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainNormalorRain.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%.ModelingIDYNEVSystem:TRADandPCDYNEV.DYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.15.0SpecialEventsTwocasesconsidered:footballgameatAlcornStateUniversityandthenewplantconstructionphase.HeavilyattendedASUFootballgame.SpecialEventPopulation=21,897additionaltransientsEvacuationCases9Regionsand12Scenariosproducing108uniquecases.41Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and12Scenariosproducing492uniquecases.EvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedfor50,90,95,and100thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90 thand100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZ,90 thpercentileWinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:2:20SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:2:20WinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:2:15 SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:2:05 GrandGulfNuclearStation2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.2.1 DataEstimates1. PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebasedupondataobtainedfromTensasParishandClaiborneCounty.3. PopulationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromTensasParishandClaiborneCountyemergencymanagementoffices.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCapacityManual2010.5. PopulationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanalysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. Therelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromthetelephonesurvey.Averagevaluesof2.71personsperhouseholdand1.46evacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandemployeesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.04employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. Parks:Vehicleoccupancyvariesbasedupondatagatheredfromlocaltransientfacilities.c. SpecialEvents:AssumedtransientsattendinganAlcornStateUniversityFootballgametravelasfamilies/householdsinasinglevehicl efulltocapacity,andusedtheaverageof4personstoestimatethenumberofvehicles.

GrandGulfNuclearStation2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofPAS/PAAthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002.3. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.4. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyofthePAS/PAAincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.5. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).6. Atotalof12"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherco nditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareoutlinedinTable2 1.7. Scenario12considerstheclosureofasinglelanenorthboundonUS61fromthePortGibsoncitylinetotheEPZboundary.8. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 1).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.1Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.

GrandGulfNuclearStation2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11WinterWeekendEveningGoodASUFootballGame12SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonUS61NB2Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

GrandGulfNuclearStation2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology GrandGulfNuclearStation2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccidentthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedinatimelymannerfollowingthesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofPAS/PAAformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 61percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1co mmuter;67percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore41percent(61%x67%=41%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacuationtrip.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderationof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergen cy.5. AccessControlPoints(ACP)willbestaffedwithinapproximately120minutesfollowingthesirennotifications,todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofACPlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis120minutetimeperiod.6. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningattheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytrav elerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.

GrandGulfNuclearStation2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17. Buseswillbeusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedreceptioncenters.b. Itisassumedparentswillpickupchildrenatdaycarecenterspriortoevacuation.c. Buses,wheelchairvansandambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoReceptionCenters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolisinsession,aregivenpriorityinassignin gtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredround trips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstoshelterfacilitiesisnotconsideredinthisstudy.8. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthegeneralpopulationtoreceptioncentersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillride sharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 3 ,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.9. Onetypeofadverseweatherscenarioisconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios.Itisassumedthattherainbeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepresentinth eEPZisassumed.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 4;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.

3InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswithotherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).4Agarwal,M.et.Al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.

GrandGulfNuclearStation2 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport70studentsperbusforelementaryschoolsand50studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedondiscussionswithcountyofficesofemergencymanagement.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30peopleperbus.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationRain90%90%NoEffect*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.

GrandGulfNuclearStation3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsoftheGGNSEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythreedistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetobusinesseswithintheEPZonadailybasis.EstimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachPAS/PAAandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationrose).TheGGNSEPZissubdividedinto16PAS/PAA.TheEPZisshowninFigure3 1.

GrandGulfNuclearStation3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.71persons/household-SeeFigureF 1)andthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.46vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 7)wereadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.TheestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbythePAS/PAAandEPZboundaries.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatewhatthepopulationiswithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacrossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ,byPAS/PAAbasedonth ismethodology.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaveragehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinFigure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromGGNS.This"rose"wasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbeargue dthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductionca nbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforatwoweekperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasi s,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.

GrandGulfNuclearStation3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.GGNSEPZ GrandGulfNuclearStation3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationPAS/PAA2000Population2007Population2010Population1104100432A3563423052B1501441513A9839469613B5064873884A2,8922,7782,4074B5645414535A1631561385B39638135662,0572,2582,62973328816314812691,8921,7081,18510431388394111,5301,3811,40312TOTAL12,19011,76110,967EPZPopulationGrowth(2000to2010):10.03%

GrandGulfNuclearStation3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPAS/PAAPAS/PAA2010Population2010ResidentVehicles143242A3051662B151833A9615193B3882094A2,4071,2984B4532485A138755B35619362,6291,6867281581267191,18564210394214111,40375512TOTAL10,9676,198 GrandGulfNuclearStation3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector GrandGulfNuclearStation3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector GrandGulfNuclearStation3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromtheGGNS(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuatingvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthatfortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesNNNE325174NE422226ENE7440E247134ESE547296SE655357SSE755406S426231SSW9552SW9250WSW42W74WNW10660NWNNWTOTAL3,7552,032 GrandGulfNuclearStation3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector GrandGulfNuclearStation3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector GrandGulfNuclearStation3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.TheGGNSEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiestha tattracttransients,including: RecreationalAreas LodgingFacilities HuntingandFishingCamps AlcornStateUniversityTensasParishandClaiborneCountyprovideddataregardinglodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Thisincludedthenumberofrooms,percentageofoccupiedroomsatpeaktimes,andthenumberofpeopleandvehiclespe rroomforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof210transientsin105vehiclesareassignedtolodgingfacilitiesintheEPZ.DatawasprovidedbyTensasParishandClaiborneCountyonaveragedailyattendance,andvehiclesforrecreationalareasintheEPZ.ThedataprovidedfortheLakeBruinStateParkandtheGrandGulfMilitaryMonumentreportedthenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof37transientsand37vehiclesareassignedtotheserecreationalareasintheEPZ.The2008COLAstudyofGGNSincludeddatagatheredforlocalhuntingandfishingcamps.TensasParishandClaiborneCountyapprovedtheuseofthesamedataasthepopulationsofthesecampschangesinfrequently.610transientsand427transientvehiclesareassignedforhuntingandfishingcampswithintheEPZ.AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE 4presentsthenumberoftransien tsvisitingrecreationalareas,whileTableE 5presentsthenumberoftransientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table3 4presentstransientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbyPAS/PAA.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddistancefromtheplant.OfficialsatAlcornStateUniversityprovideddataregardingthepopulationforthecampus.Thenumbersreportedfortheuniversityareasfollows.Studentscommutingtothecampusarereportedas2,036studentsin1,958vehicles.ThecommutingstudentsareincludedinFigure3 6andFigure3 7astheirpatternsaresimilartotransientpopulations.ThesestudentshavetheirowncolumninTable3 7andinTable3 8namedASU.TheuniversityreportsthenumberofstudentslivingwithintheEPZbutoffcampus,inotherPAS/PAAs,as359.Thesestudentshavebeenincludedasapartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Studentswhoareincludedasoncampusresidentsarereportedas1,055in1,055vehicles.ThesestudentshavebeenincludedasapartofthepermanentresidentpopulationinTable3 1, GrandGulfNuclearStation3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 2aswellasFigure3 2andFigure3 3.Thesameappliesforthepermanentresidentswhoarestaffmembersandtheirfamilies.Theuniversityreports1,006staffmembersin631vehicles.ThispopulationwillnotappearintheemployeetablesandrosesinSection3.4toavoiddoubl ecounting.ASUreports568studentswhoarepermanentresidentsoncampus,butdonothaveaccesstovehicles,bringingthetotalnumberofcampusresidentstudentsto568+1,055=1,623.Itisassumedthat50%ofstudentswithoutaccesstoavehiclewillrideshare.Theresulting284studentswillbeconsideredinSect ion8andTable8 2asstudentsneedingbuses.ThetotalenrollmentforASUhasbeenreportedas4,018.Enrollment:CommutingStudents(2,036)+EPZResidents(359)+OnCampusStudents(1,623)=4,018PermanentResidentsoncampus:OnCampusStudents(1,623)+OnCampusStaffandFamily(1,006)=2,629ResidentsOnCampusStudentsVeh(1,055)+OnCampusStaffandFamilyVeh(631)=1,686ResidentVehiclesCommutingStudents:CommutingStudents(2,036)incommutingvehicles(1,958),i.e.,1.04studentspervehicle.Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesPAS/PAATransientsTransientVehicles1132962A90632B2001123A3B30214A50354B1075A70495B906362,0361,95878056891095601112107TOTAL2,8932,527PAA/PAA6includesthecommuterstudentsfromASU GrandGulfNuclearStation3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector GrandGulfNuclearStation3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector GrandGulfNuclearStation3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.4 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.DataprovidedbyTensasParishandClaiborneCountywereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZforthoseemployerswhodidnotprovidedata.InTableE 3,theEmployees(MaxShift)ismultipliedbythepercentNon EPZfactortodeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.04employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(SeeFigureF 6)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajorem ployers.Table3 5presentsnon EPZResidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbyPAS/PAA.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector.Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesPAS/PAAEmployeesEmployeeVehicles15965732A2B3A42403B4A2822704B5A5B678996921011424012TOTAL1,0581,015 GrandGulfNuclearStation3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector GrandGulfNuclearStation3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector GrandGulfNuclearStation3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 MedicalFacilitiesDatawereprovidedbythecounty/parishforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.TableE 2inAppendixEsummarizesthedatagathered.Section8detailstheevacuationofmedicalfacilitiesandtheirpatients.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesthatneedtobeprovideddependonthepatients'stateofhealth.Itisestimatedthatbusescantransportupto30people;wheelchairvans,upto4people;wheelchairbusesupto15people;andambulances,upto2people.3.6 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(external externaltrips)atthetimeofanaccident.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.ThesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ-US61andUS65.ItisassumedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoentertheEPZduringthefirst120minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.TheAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAAD Tonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby2hours(accesscontrolpoints-ACP-areassumedtobeactivatedat120minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,th ereare2,776vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternal externaltripspriortotheactivationoftheACPandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5,10and11)asdiscussedinSection6.3.7 SpecialEventOnespecialevent(Scenario11)isconsideredfortheETEstudy-afootballgameatAlcornStateUniversity.Thelargestgamesoccuronweekendsduringthefallfootballseason.DatawasobtainedfrompersonnelatAlcornUniversity.Themaximumattendanceexpectedis30,000people.Inaddition,approximately2,629peopleareonsite.AccordingtoASUemergencymanagementpersonnel,approximately21,897oftheentire30,000peoplecomefromoutsidetheEPZ.Itwasassumedthatfamiliestraveltotheeventasahouseholdunitinasinglevehicleandareexpectedtobefulltocapacity;therefore,4peoplepervehiclewasusedforvehicleoccupancy.Atotalof5,474vehicleswerein corporatedatvariousparkinglocationsforthisspecialevent.Thespecialeventvehicletripsweregeneratedutilizingthesamemobilization GrandGulfNuclearStation3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1distributionsfortransients.Publictransportationisnotprovidedforthiseventandwasnotconsideredinthespecialeventanalysis.3.8 CorrectionalFacilitiesTheGGNSEPZincludesonecorrectionalfacilitylocatedinPAS/PAA4A.TheClaiborneCountySheriffDepartmentcurrentlyhouses25inmatesandwillusepublictransportationtoevacuateintheeventatGGNS.SeeSection8.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleforadditionalinformationaswellasTable8 16CorrectionalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates.PreviousETEstudiesfortheGGNSincludedestimatesfortheJ.B.EvansCorrectionalCenterinTensasParish,LA.Thatfacilityhasbeenpermanen tlyclosed.

GrandGulfNuclearStation3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.GGNSEPZExternalTrafficUpstreamNodeDownstreamNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2DFactor 2HourlyVolumeExternalTraffic8230230US65NB1,9000.1510.51432868220220US65SB1,9000.1510.514328680044US61SB9,3450.1180.55511,102804040US61NB9,3450.1180.55511,102TOTAL: 2,7761 HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20112 HCM2010 GrandGulfNuclearStation3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.9 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandisprovidedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.Thissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissection.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof20,120peopleand13,141vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.

GrandGulfNuclearStation3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandPAS/PAAResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities ASUCommutersSchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotal14331325967742A30518904132B15192003603A9615642741,1333B38823304414A2,40714150282372,2095,1264B4532710175075A1388702165B356219046762,6291502,0362845,0997282801108126713391,18570961022611,714103942395512111,40386428232,354121010Shadow751751Total10,9676448571,0582132,0363,594751020,120NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.NOTE:ASUstudentswhoarepermanentresidentsareshownin"Residents"column;transitdependentstudentsarein"Schools"NOTE:SpecialFacilitiesincludebothmedicalfacilitiesandcorrectionalfacilities.

GrandGulfNuclearStation3 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandPAS/PAAResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities ASUSchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotal124965736932A1662632312B831121953A519340165783B2093212334A1,2985352709821,6994B248572605A754491285B19346326061,68641,958203,668715567187137496423928107551021426027611755640308311277Shadow4062,7763,182Total6,198445691,015331,9581424062,77613,141NOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.

GrandGulfNuclearStation4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,fog,windspeed,ice)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)

GrandGulfNuclearStation4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentforrain.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacitymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeintersectionswhereflowca nbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsorturnbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobe comethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theex istingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedinthecountyemergencyplansareextensiveandwereadoptedwithoutchange.Theperlanecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutes GrandGulfNuclearStation4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1movement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecutingmovement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycl e;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:

2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 GrandGulfNuclearStation4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexit yofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity GrandGulfNuclearStation4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.

GrandGulfNuclearStation4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtotheGrandGulfNuclearStationStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade)Eachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15Twolanero adscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"Clas sI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A GrandGulfNuclearStation4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedin tersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Wh ereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersectionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuatedsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contr a flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChapter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"Thesystemunderst udyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.ItisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicatethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiven ess(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.

GrandGulfNuclearStation4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantoftheseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink. Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams GrandGulfNuclearStation5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREGCR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundIngeneral,anaccidentatanuclearpowerplantischaracterizedbythefollowingEmergencyClassificationLevels(seeAppendix1ofNUREG0654fordetails):1. UnusualEvent2. Alert3. SiteAreaEmergency4. GeneralEmergencyAteachlevel,theFederalguidelinesspecifyasetofActionstobeundertakenbyth eLicensee,andbyStateandLocaloffsiteauthorities.AsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingaccidentwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedinatimelymannerfollowingthesirennotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterth esirennotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Itislikelythatalongertimewillel apsebetweenthevariousclassesofanemergency.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthiscase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhenth eAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenalert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeople GrandGulfNuclearStation5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1remainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthantheestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately346squaremilesandisengagedinawidevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromonei ndividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevacuationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertr avelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivingnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbyteleph one,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.Itisimportanttonotethattheshapeanddurationoftheevacuationtripmobilizationdistributionisimportantatsiteswheretrafficcongestionisnotexpectedtocausetheevacuationtimeestimatetoextendintimewellbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Theremainingdiscussionwillfocusonth eapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbefore GrandGulfNuclearStation5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1beginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowthesecondsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweek endsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).TransientswillalwaysfollowoneofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGeneratio ntime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicatedway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprec edingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthisstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccu rstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

  1. ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time GrandGulfNuclearStation5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Inaccordancewiththe2012FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessProgramManual,100%ofthepopulationisnotifiedwithin45minutes.Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)that87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified0 0%5 7%10 13%15 27%20 47%25 66%30 87%35 92%40 97%45 100%

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00%4582%521%5083%1036%5583%1549%6093%2054%7596%2555%9098%3071%10598%3575%120100%4076%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00%4588%516%5089%1034%5589%1550%6097%2059%7597%2562%9099%3074%10599%3578%120100%4080%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response GrandGulfNuclearStation5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate0 0%15 32%30 66%45 73%60 86%75 92%90 92%105 93%120 96%135 98%150 98%165 98%180100%195%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response GrandGulfNuclearStation5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180 PercentofPopulationCompletingMobilizationActivityElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHome GrandGulfNuclearStation5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table5 6presentsthesummingpr oceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 6.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5Table5 7presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).5.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor500responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnonparametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciples GrandGulfNuclearStation5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1areused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 6,Table57);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles;4) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterth an3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3.6) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bo thveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,no ta"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturning).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,usingweightingbaseduponthe0.0%10.0%20.0%

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90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.537.542.5 47.552.557.5 67.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution GrandGulfNuclearStation5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1probabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,C,D.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,C,D,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother,aretabulatedinTable5 8(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(15)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAS/PAAcomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. PAS/PAAcomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethe2mileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinPAS/PAAbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoption savailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthePAS/PAAcomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*,isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltrip saregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance).

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenon sheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*iscloseto1:30forallscenarios.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersFigure5 5presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommuters;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeis90minutesforgoodweather.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,20%ofthepopulation(whonormallywouldhavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesforanun stagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationtime,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 9providesthetripgenerationforstagedevacuation.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreasAsindicatedinTable5 2,thisstudyassumes100%notificationin45minutes.Table5 8indicatesth atalltransientswillhavemobilizedwithin2hours.Itisassumedthatthis2hourtimeframeissufficienttimeforboaters,campersandothertransientstoreturntotheirvehiclesandbegintheirevacuationtrip.

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1154%4%0%2%21521%21%0%15%31529%29%3%28%41520%20%9%22%51511%11%13%12%6158%8%14%9%7153%3%14%3%8152%2%13%2%9151%1%9%1%10301%1%12%4%11300%0%7%1%12300%0%3%1%13300%0%2%0%14300%0%1%0%156000%0%0%0%NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionsCforgoodweather. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 80100060120180240300 PercentofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommuters GrandGulfNuclearStation5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1150%0%2150%3%3151%6%4151%4%5153%3%6153%2%71545%73%81513%2%9159%1%103012%4%11307%1%12303%1%13302%0%14301%0%156000%0%*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 8)isthesameforUnstagedandStagedEvacuation.

GrandGulfNuclearStation5 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300

%ofPopulationEvacuatingElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommuters GrandGulfNuclearStation6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingPAS/PAAthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergenc y.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Atotalof41Regionsweredefinedwhichenco mpassallthegroupingsofPAS/PAAconsidered.TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable6 1.ThePAS/PAAconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesector basedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thecentralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesfromtheplant(RegionsR04throughR09)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR10throughR22)aswellas2milestotheEPZboundary(RegionsR23throughR34).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,respectively.RegionsR35throughR41areidenticaltoRegionsR02,R04throughR09,respectively;however,thosePAS/PAAbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2 mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.Atotalof12ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thus,thereareatotalof41x12=492evacuationcases.Table6 2isadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeac hscenario.Table6 4presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThevehicleestimatespresentedinSection3arepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentagessuchthattheaveragepopulationisconsideredforeachevacuationcase.ThescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 3,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.ThepercentagespresentedinTable6 3weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof61%(thenumberofho useholdswithatleastonecommuter)and67%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommuterthatwouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.

GrandGulfNuclearStation6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Employmentisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedontheestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedthatonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeakduringwinterweekendsandless(50%)duringtheweek.AsshowninAppendixE,thereisasignificantamountofhuntingcampsofferingintheEPZ;thus,transientactivityisestimatedtobehighduringwintermiddayhours(100%).Transientactivityonsummerweekendsisestimatedtobe15%.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 3,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheshadowregionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshado wregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 4forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:Onespecialevent-AlcornStateUniversityFootballgame-wasconsideredasScenario11.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario11and0%forallotherscenarios.Itisestimatedthatsummerschoolenrollmentisapproximately10%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearforsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Schoolisno tinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbusesforthetransit dependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentpopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.

GrandGulfNuclearStation6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112R012 MileRingxR025 MileRingxxxxxxR03FullEPZxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112R04WSW,W,WNW,NW,NNW,NxxN/ANNERefertoRegion01R05NE,ENExxR06ExxxR07ESE,SE,SSExxxR08SxxxR09SSWxxN/ASWRefertoRegion01Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112N/ANRefertoRegion04R10NNExxxR11NE,ENExxxxR12ExxxxxR13ESExxxxxxxR14SExxxxxxxR15SSExxxxxxR16SxxxxxxR17SSWxxxxR18SWxxxxxxR19WSWxxxxxxxxR20WxxxxxxR21WNWxxxxxR22NW,NNWxxxx GrandGulfNuclearStation6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Evacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112N/ANRefertoRegion02R23NNExxxxxxxR24NE,ENExxxxxxxxR25ExxxxxxxxR26ESExxxxxxxxxR27SExxxxxxxxxR28SSExxxxxxxxR29SxxxxxxxxxR30SSWxxxxxxxxR31SWxxxxxxxxxxR32WSW,WxxxxxxxxxxR33WNWxxxxxxxxxxxR34NW,NNWxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandStagedDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112R355MileRingxxxxxxR36WSW,W,WNW,NW,NNW,NxxN/ANNERefertoRegion01R37NE,ENExxR38ExxxR39ESE,SE,SSExxxR40SxxxR41SSWxxN/ASWRefertoRegion01 GrandGulfNuclearStation6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.GGNSEPZPAS/PAA GrandGulfNuclearStation6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11WinterWeekendEveningGoodASUFootballGame12SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonUS61NB1Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

GrandGulfNuclearStation6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployees TransientsShadowSpecialEventsASUCommuters SchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic141%59%96%10%23%0%10%10%100%100%241%59%96%10%23%0%10%10%100%100%34%96%10%15%20%0%0%0%100%100%44%96%10%15%20%0%0%0%100%100%54%69%10%5%20%0%0%0%100%40%641%59%100%50%23%0%100%100%100%100%741%59%100%50%23%0%100%100%100%100%84%96%10%100%20%0%5%0%100%100%94%9610%100%20%0%5%0%100%100%104%96%10%26%20%0%5%0%100%40%114%69%10%26%20%100%5%0%100%40%1241%59%96%10%23%0%10%10%100%100%ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters.HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees.................................................EPZemployeeswh oliveoutsidetheEPZTransients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow.....................................................Residentsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTraffic.............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbyaccesscontrolapproximately2hoursaftertheevacuationbegins.

GrandGulfNuclearStation6 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadow SpecialEventsASUCommutersSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles12,5303,6689745747019614442,77610,72922,5303,6689745747019614442,77610,72932535,94510285413442,7769,61842535,94510285413442,7769,61852535,94510228413441,1107,89562,5303,6681,0152854731,958142442,77612,89172,5303,6681,0152854731,958142442,77612,89182535,94510256941398442,77610,20092535,94510256941398442,77610,200102535,94510214841398441,1108,113112535,9451021484135,47498441,11013,587122,5303,6689745747019614442,77610,729Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)

GrandGulfNuclearStation7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover41regionswithintheGrandGulfNuclearStationEPZandthe12EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTable7 4.Table7 5definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZinPAS/PAAforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevoluntaryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendationhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithinth eimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEfortheGGNSEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpeoplelocatedinPAS/PAAoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,ar eassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedthat20percentofthosepeopleintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof3,755peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4forthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion,travelingawayfromtheGGNSlocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingevacuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAS/PAAcomprisingthe2 mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.2. PAS/PAAcomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomilere gioniscleared.

GrandGulfNuclearStation7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2 mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofthe2 mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2 mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 7illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthewinter,midweek,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario6).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedinthesefiguresbyathickredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.Throughouttheevacuation,theGGNSEPZisfreefromcongestion,withtheexceptionoftheexitsfromtheAlcornStateUniversity.Mildcongestionisfirsteviden tintheshadowat25minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE),on therampfromSR522toUS61southbound,2milessouthofthe10 mileradius.Figure7 3showsthatby45minutes,trafficismovingslowly(LOSDtoF)alongSR522betweentheAlcornSt ateUniversityandthecongestionfromtheon ramphasstartedtopropagatealongSR522.WithintheEPZ,asectionofUS61throughPortGibsonisoperatingatLOSB,asistheGrandGulfRoadleadingfromtheplant.TheParishesof GrandGulfNuclearStation7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Louisianaarefreefromcongestion.By1houraftertheATE(Figure7 4),congestionisstillevidentonSR522neartheuniversityexitandtrafficisstillmovingslowlybetweenASUandUS61.Thequeuingtogetontheonramphasincreasedfurther.Trafficcontinuestomoveun hinderedintheParishesofLouisiana.AsseeninFigure7 5,at1:30aftertheATEaconsiderabl estretchofSR522betweentheAlcornStateUniversityandUS61remainscongested.Overthefollowing30minutesthiscongestionregressesslightly(Figure7 6).US61throughPortGibsonandPlankRdinPAS11areoperatingatLOSB(i.e.trafficismovingwell);allotherlin kswithintheEPZarefree flowingorempty.Atthispoint,theACPareactivatedandthethroughtrafficceasestoenterthenetwork.By2hoursand55minutesaftertheATE(Figure7 7)onlyashortsectionofSR522iscongestedandthissubsidesby3:00.7.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 8throughFigure7 19.Thesefiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforth ecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioconsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 8,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegintoevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomesbusier,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadyleftth eEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatal lwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeuntiltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1andTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall41EvacuationRegionsandall12EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3andTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2 mileregionforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Thetablesareorganizedasfollows:

GrandGulfNuclearStation7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 7.TheonlycongestionislocatedonSR522,intheshadowthisisreflectedintheETEstatistics: The100 thpercentileETEforallregionsandscenariosreflectsthemobilizationtimeofresidentswithcommutersduetothefactthattheEPZisfreefromcongestion,withtheexceptionofthecampusexitroadways. The90 thpercentileETEforRegionR01is1:25to1:30forallscenarios. The90 thpercentile2 5milekeyholeETEvariesfrom1:25to2:10;the2 10milekeyholeETEisbetween1:55and2:30(non specialeventcases).ComparisonofScenarios10and11inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-ASUfootballgamesignificantlyimpactstheETEforregionsincludingPAA6,wherethecampusislocated.Theseregionsshowanincreasein90 thETEof30to35minutes,attributabletotheextraspecialeventvehicles.SinceASUisontheperipheryoftheEPZ(justoutsidethe10 mileradius),theETEincreasesbecausevehiclesaresubjectedtosignificantdelaywhileexitingthecampus.ComparisonofScenarios1and12inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-theclosureonelaneonUS61northboundfromtheboundaryofPortGibsontotheEPZboundary(byth eClaiborneCountyline)-doesnothaveanimpactonthe90 thpercentileETE.US61hasenoughcapacitytohandledemandinthisarea.BothScenario1and12showa2:20ETEforR03.7.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3andTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEcompiledfortheconcurrent(un staged)andstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR35throughR41ar ethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR02andR04throughR09,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustshowthattheETEforthe2 mileregioncanbereducedwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheregionbetween2milesand5miles.Asshowninthesetables,the90percentileETEforth e2 mileregionisupto20minutes GrandGulfNuclearStation7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1longerwhenstagedevacuationisimplemented;thereforestagingdoesnotbenefitevacueeswithinthe2 mileregion.Thisisbecausethereisnocongestionwithinthe5 mileregion.Consequently,theimpedance,duetotrafficmovementswithinthe5 milearea,toevacueesfromwithinthe2mileareaisnotsufficienttomateriallyinfluencethe90 thpercentileETEforthe2milearea.AcomparisonofETEbetweenRegionsR02andR04throughR09,withR35throughR41(Table7 1),revealsthatstaginghaslittleimpactontheETEforthoseevacuatingfromwithinthe5 milearea.ThechangeinETEresultingfromstagingrangesfrom5minutesshorterto20minuteslonger.Insummary,stagingtheevacuatio nprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2 mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles.7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain* SpecialEven t ASUfootballgame RoadClosure(AlaneonUS61NBisclosed)* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhiletheseScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenot GrandGulfNuclearStation7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1explicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(9)forrainapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellin gto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewinddirection).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation:towardsN,NNE,NE,-* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.Theapplic abledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(RegionR01) To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR09) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R10throughR34)* EnterTable7 5andidentifytheap plicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthedistancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromtheGGNS.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionoftheplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheET ETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* Identifytherowinthi stablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes.

GrandGulfNuclearStation7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionistowardthenortheast(NE).* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea5 mileradiusanddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 5andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary"forwinddirectiontowardtheNE(fromtheSW)andreadRegionR24inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR24.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR24;itcontainstheETEvalueof2:10.

GrandGulfNuclearStation7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R01R022:102:152:052:052:002:102:102:052:052:002:002:10R02R032:202:202:052:052:002:152:152:002:052:002:302:20R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR041:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R04R052:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:052:052:002:002:05R05R062:052:102:052:052:002:052:102:052:052:002:002:05R06R072:102:102:052:052:002:052:102:002:052:002:002:10R07R082:052:102:002:052:002:052:102:002:052:002:002:05R08R092:002:052:002:052:002:002:052:002:052:002:002:00R092 MileRegionandKeyholeto10MilesR102:052:052:052:052:052:052:052:052:052:002:002:05R10R112:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:052:052:002:002:05R11R122:052:102:052:052:002:052:102:052:052:002:002:10R12R132:152:152:052:052:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:15R13R142:152:152:052:102:052:152:152:052:052:051:552:15R14R152:102:152:052:052:002:102:102:052:052:001:552:10R15R162:102:152:002:052:002:102:102:002:051:552:302:10R16R172:102:102:002:001:552:002:052:002:001:552:302:10R17R182:102:102:002:001:552:052:052:002:001:552:302:10R18R192:102:102:002:001:552:052:052:002:001:552:302:10R19R202:152:202:002:002:002:152:152:002:001:551:552:15R20R212:102:102:002:001:552:102:101:552:001:551:552:10R21R222:052:052:002:001:552:052:051:552:001:551:552:05R22 GrandGulfNuclearStation7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpact5 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR232:102:152:052:102:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:10R23R242:102:152:052:102:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:10R24R252:102:152:052:052:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:10R25R262:152:152:052:102:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:15R26R272:152:152:052:102:002:152:152:052:052:001:552:15R27R282:152:152:052:102:002:102:152:052:052:001:552:15R28R292:152:152:052:052:002:102:102:052:052:002:302:15R29R302:152:152:052:052:002:102:102:002:052:002:302:15R30R312:152:152:002:052:002:102:102:002:052:002:302:15R31R322:152:152:052:052:002:152:152:052:052:002:002:15R32R332:152:152:052:052:002:152:152:052:052:002:002:15R33R342:102:152:052:052:002:102:152:052:052:002:002:10R34StagedEvacuation5 MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR352:102:152:052:052:002:102:102:052:052:002:002:10R35R361:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R36R372:052:052:052:052:002:052:052:052:052:002:002:05R37R382:052:102:052:052:002:052:102:052:052:002:002:05R38R392:102:102:052:052:002:052:102:002:052:002:002:10R39R402:052:102:002:052:002:052:102:002:001:551:552:05R40R412:002:052:002:001:552:002:052:002:001:551:552:00R41 GrandGulfNuclearStation7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R01R024:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R02R034:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R04R054:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R05R064:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R06R074:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R07R084:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R08R094:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R092 MileRegionandKeyholeto10MilesR104:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R10R114:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R11R124:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R12R134:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R13R144:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R14R154:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R15R164:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R16R174:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R17R184:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R18R194:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R19R204:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R20R214:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R21R224:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R22 GrandGulfNuclearStation7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegion5 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR234:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R23R244:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R24R254:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R25R264:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R26R274:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R27R284:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R28R294:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R29R304:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R30R314:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R31R324:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R32R334:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R33R344:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R34StagedEvacuation5 MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR354:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R35R364:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R36R374:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R37R384:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R38R394:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R39R404:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R40R414:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R41 GrandGulfNuclearStation7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpact2 Mileand5 MileRegionR011:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R01R021:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R022 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR041:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R04R051:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R05R061:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R06R071:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R07R081:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R08R091:301:301:251:251:301:301:301:301:301:251:251:30R09StagedEvacuation5 MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR351:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R35R361:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R36R371:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R37R381:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R38R391:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R39R401:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R40R411:351:351:451:451:451:351:351:401:401:451:451:35R41 GrandGulfNuclearStation7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpact2 Mileand5 MileRegionR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R01R024:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R022 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R04R054:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R05R064:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R06R074:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R07R084:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R08R094:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R09StagedEvacuation5 MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR354:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R35R364:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R36R374:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R37R384:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R38R394:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R39R404:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R40R414:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R41 GrandGulfNuclearStation7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112R012 MileRingxR025 MileRingxxxxxxR03FullEPZxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112R04WSW,W,WNW,NW,NNW,NxxN/ANNERefertoRegion01R05NE,ENExxR06ExxxR07ESE,SE,SSExxxR08SxxxR09SSWxxN/ASWRefertoRegion01Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112N/ANRefertoRegion04R10NNExxxR11NE,ENExxxxR12ExxxxxR13ESExxxxxxxR14SExxxxxxxR15SSExxxxxxR16SxxxxxxR17SSWxxxxR18SWxxxxxxR19WSWxxxxxxxxR20WxxxxxxR21WNWxxxxxR22NW,NNWxxxx GrandGulfNuclearStation7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Evacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtoEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112N/ANRefertoRegion02R23NNExxxxxxxR24NE,ENExxxxxxxxR25ExxxxxxxxR26ESExxxxxxxxxR27SExxxxxxxxxR28SSExxxxxxxxR29SxxxxxxxxxR30SSWxxxxxxxxR31SWxxxxxxxxxxR32WSW,WxxxxxxxxxxR33WNWxxxxxxxxxxxR34NW,NNWxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandStagedDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112R355MileRingxxxxxxR36WSW,W,WNW,NW,NNW,NxxN/ANNERefertoRegion01R37NE,ENExxR38ExxxR39ESE,SE,SSExxxR40SxxxR41SSWxxN/ASWRefertoRegion01 GrandGulfNuclearStation7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology GrandGulfNuclearStation7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.GGNSShadowRegion GrandGulfNuclearStation7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate GrandGulfNuclearStation7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1houraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate GrandGulfNuclearStation7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat1hourand30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate GrandGulfNuclearStation7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6:CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate GrandGulfNuclearStation7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat2Hoursand55MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate GrandGulfNuclearStation7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 8.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030 2 4

6 8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 2 4

6 8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

GrandGulfNuclearStation7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030 2 4 6 8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 2

4 6

8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

GrandGulfNuclearStation7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030 2 4 6 8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 2

4 6

8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

GrandGulfNuclearStation7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030 2 4 6 8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 2

4 6

8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario8)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

GrandGulfNuclearStation7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030 2 4 6 8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 2

4 6

8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario10)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

GrandGulfNuclearStation7 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030 2 4 6 8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Evening,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 2 4 6 8 10 12 140306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

GrandGulfNuclearStation8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles.Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschools,medica lfacilities,andcorrectionalfacilities;and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepres entsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilit yTheseactivitiesconsumetime.Basedondiscussionwiththeoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbusmobilizationtimewillaverageapproximately90minutesextendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizat ionactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointheirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentpublicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsoftheGGNSEPZindicatesthatschoolchildrenwillbeevacuatedtoreceptioncentersatemergencyactionlevelsofSiteAreaEmergencyorhigher,andthatparentsshouldpickschoolchildrenupatthereceptioncenters.AsdiscussedinSection2,thisstudyassumesafastbreakinggeneralemergency.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtoreceptioncenters.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingth edepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimat eofbusesrequired.Itisassumedthatchildrenatday carecentersarepickedupbyparentsorguardiansandthatthetimetoperformthisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice GrandGulfNuclearStation8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions* EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtothereceptioncenters8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicl eavailable.* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailableatthetimetheevacuationisadvised.Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuat ethehousehold.Table8 1presentsestimatesoftransit dependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransit dependentpersonswillevacuatebyride sharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedarid ewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransit dependentpersonsisbasedonanestimateofaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transi tvehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60childrenonaverage(roughlyequivalentto40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthenumberof"adultseats"takenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverageloadfactoranticipatedis(27/40)x100=68percent.Thus,iftheactualdemandforserviceexc eedstheestimatesofTable8 1by50percent,thedemandforservicecanstillbeaccommodatedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.Table8 1indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor644people.Therefore,atotalof22busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.

GrandGulfNuclearStation8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorride share,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheGGNSEPZ:Where,A=PercentofhouseholdswithcommutersC=Percentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter Thesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(2.29avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(10%)willevacuatebypublictransitorrideshare.Theterm4,047(numberofhouseholds)x0.10x2.29,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(32%),whoareathome,equal(2.20 1).Th enumberofHHwherethecommuterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(4,047x0.32x0.61x0.33,as61%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,33%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergen cy.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(35%),whoareathome,equal(2.85-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto4,047x0.35x(0.61x0.33)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehi cles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.Theestimateoftransit dependentpopulationinTable8 1farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransit dependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbythecounty/parish(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR 6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajorityofthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwit htheirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

GrandGulfNuclearStation8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 2presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZforthe2011 2012schoolyear.Thisinformationwasprovidedbythelocalcounty/parishemergencymanagementagencies.ThecolumninTable8 2entitled"BusesRequ ired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(asdiscussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR 7002),th eestimateofbusesrequiredforschoolevacuationdonotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsand50formiddleandhighschools.* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacu ateintheirprivatevehicles.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.ItisrecommendedthatthecountyandparishintheEPZintroduceprocedureswherebytheschoolsarecontactedpriortothedispatchofbusesfromthedepot,toascertainthecurr entestimateofstudentstobeevacuated.Inthisway,thenumberofbusesdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Theneedforbuseswouldbereducedbyanyhighschoolstudentswhohaveevacuatedusingprivateautomobiles(ifpermittedbyschoolauthorities).Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuat eschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoride sharing.Table8 3presentsalistoftheschoolreceptioncentersforeachschoolintheEPZ.Student swillbetransportedtothesecenterswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.8.3 MedicalFacilityDemandTable8 4presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.188peoplehavebeenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,th esefacilities.Thecapacityandcurrentcensusforeachfacilitywereprovidedbythecountyandparishemergencymanagementagencies.Thisdataincludesthenumberofambulatory,wheelchair boundandbedriddenpatientsateachfacility.ThetransportationrequirementsforthemedicalfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable8 4.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingth at2patientscanbeaccommodatedperambulancetrip;thenumberofwheelchairbusrunsassumes15wheelchairspertrip;thenumberofwheelchairvansassumes4wheelchairspertripandthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientspertrip.

GrandGulfNuclearStation8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetimeoftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhat"inefficient",orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,theETEforthetransit dependentpopulationwillbecalculatedforbothaonewavetransitevacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandthi sdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransit dependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinapositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthepick uppoints.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortransittripsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure8 1presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure8 1.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Itisassumedthatforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergencywithnoobservableindicationbeforethefact,schoolbusdriverswouldlikelyrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransit dependentfacilities.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerinadverseweatherand100minuteswhenraining.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)Basedondiscussionswithoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof15minutes(20minutesforrain)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapick uproute(transit dependentbusroutes)estimationoftraveltimemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpick uppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:s=v 2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservicepassengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s, GrandGulfNuclearStation8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespick uptimeperbusrunimplies30st opsperrun,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;totalloadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbytheEPZcountyandparishemergencymanagementagenciesandaresummarizedinTable8 5.Alsoincludedinthetablearethenumberofbusesneededtoevacuateschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpopulation,homeboundspecialneeds(discussedbelowinSection8.5)andcorrectionalfacilities(discussedbelowinSection8.6).Thesenumbersindicatethereareinsufficientresourcesavailabletoevacuatealltransitdependentsinasinglewave.TheexceptiontothisispublicschoolsinClaiborneCountyandTensasParish.Transportationresourcesprovidedbythecounty/parishindicatethereareenoughbusestoevacuateschoolagechildreninonewave.Daycaresinthecounty/parishprovidetheirowntransportationresourcestoevacuatechildrenandbusneedsarenotlistedinTable8 2.TheschoolevacuationtimeestimatesprovidedinTable8 7andTable8 8provideestimatesfordaycaresintheeventthecountyneedstoprovideresources.AlcornStateUniversity'stransitdependentpopulationwillrequire10busestoevacuate.Sincenoresourceswereprovidedfortheuniversity,asecondwavecalculationisshowninTables8 7through8 8anddiscussedlaterinthissection.Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus15minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusroutesalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriateschoolreceptioncenter.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.EachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentotheDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 6(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,100to105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:

GrandGulfNuclearStation8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsintheEPZisshowninTable8 7throughTable8 8forschoolevacuation,andinTable8 10throughTable8 11forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransit dependentpersons,whicharediscussedlater.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedi stancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundarytotheReceptionCenterwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof45m ph,40mphforgoodweatherandrain,respectively.SpeedswerereducedinTable8 7throughTable8 8andinthroughTable8 10throughTable8 11to55mph(50mphforrain-10%decrease)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhichexceed55mph.Table8 7(goodweather),Table8 8(rain)pr esentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)TheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)TheelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachestheschoolReceptionCenter.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E(Forexample:90min.+15+9=1:55forA.W.WatsonElementarySchoolwithgoodweather).TheevacuationtimetotheSchoolReceptionCenterisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityE F(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuationtime.EvacuationofTransit DependentPopulationThebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransit dependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure5 4(ResidentswithnoCommuters),90percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,approximately105minutesafterth eAdvisorytoEvacuate.PAS/PAA4Aand6havehightransit dependentpopulationsandrequiremorebusesthananyotherPAS/PAA(Table8 9).Assuch,twoseparaterouteshavebeenidentifiedforeachoftheseareas.Thestartofserviceontheseroutesisseparatedby15minuteheadways ,asshowninTable8 10throughTable8 11.Theuseofbusheadwaysensuresthatthosepeoplewhotakelongertomobilizewillbepickedup.Mobilizationtimeis10minuteslongerinraintoaccountforslowertravelspeedsandreducedroadwaycapacity.Thosebusesservicingthetransit dependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpick uproutes, GrandGulfNuclearStation8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1thenproceedoutoftheEPZ.Transit dependentpick uplocationsareprovidedannuallytoEPZresidentsintheemergencypreparednessbrochure.Thecountyemergencyplansdonotdefinebusroutestoservicethesepick uplocations.The7busroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure8 2anddescribedinTable8 9weredesignedaspartofthisstudytoservicethemajorroutesthrougheac hPAS/PAAandbeavailabletoserviceanypre definedpick uplocationsthecountyorparishprovide.Itisassumedthatresidentswillwalktoandcongregateatthesepre designatedpick uplocations,andth attheycanarriveatthestopswithinthe105minutebusmobilizationtime(goodweather).Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof30minutes(goodweather)isestimatedfor30individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwitheachstop.Alongerpickuptimeof40minutesisusedforrain.Thetraveldistancealongtherespectivepick uprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoftware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEV,usingtheaforementionedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table8 10throughTa ble8 11presentthetransit dependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweatherandrain.Forexample,theETEforthebusrouteservicingPAS/PAA4Aiscomputedas105+7+30=2:25forgoodweather(roundeduptonearest5minutes).Here,7minutesisthetimetotravel6milesat52.4mph,theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelforthisroutestartingat105minutes.TheETEforasecondwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers,aspreviouslydiscussed.Activity:TraveltoReceptionCenters(E F)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytothereceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtothereceptioncenter.ThereceptioncentersaremappedinFigure10 1.Foraonewaveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwo waveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsideredseparately,sinceitcouldexc eedtheETEforthegeneralpopulation.Assumedbusspeedsof45mphand40mphforgoodweatherandrainrespectively,willbeappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthetransit dependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(F G)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(G C)ThebusesassignedtoreturntotheEPZtoperforma"secondwave"evacuationoftransit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransit dependentpeoplewhomobilizedmorequickly.Thefirstwaveoftransit dependentpeopledepartthebus,andthebusthenreturnstotheEPZ,travelstoitsrouteandproceedstopickupmor etransit dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltimetothereceptioncenter.Thissecondwaveexamplecanalsobeusedifneededforschool GrandGulfNuclearStation8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1evacuationsincludingAlcornStateUniversity.Thesecond waveETEforthebusrouteservicingPAS/PAA4A(Route2inTable8 10)iscomputedasfollowsforgoodweather:* Busarrivesatreceptioncenterat3:17ingoodweather(2:25toexitEPZ+52minutetraveltimetoreceptioncenter).* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10 mi nuterest:15minutes.* BusreturnstoEPZandcompletessecondroute:52minutes(equaltotraveltimetoreceptioncenter)+15minutes(6.0miles@54.35mph+6.0mph@45mph))=67minutes* Buscompletespick upsalongroute:30minutes.* BusexitsEP Zattime2:25+0:52+0:15+1:07+0:30=5:10(roundedtonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheETEforthecompletionofthesecondwaveforalltransit dependentbusroutesareprovidedinTable8 10throughTable8 11Th eaverageETEforatwo waveevacuationoftransit dependentpeopleexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90 thpercentile.Therelocationoftransit dependentevacueesfromthereceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecounty/parishdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.EvacuationofMedicalFacilitiesThetransitoperationsforthesefacilitiesaresimilartothoseforschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof30patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythepatients.Wheelchairbusescanaccommodate15patients,wheelchairvanscanaccommodate4patientsandambulancescanaccommodate2patients.* Loadingtimesof1minute,5minu tes,and15minutesperpatientareassumedforambulatorypatients,wheelchairboundpatients,andbedriddenpatients,respectivelyTable8 4indicatesthat6busruns,3wheelchairbusrunsand13ambulancerunsareneededtoserviceallofthemedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.AccordingtoTable8 5,thecounty/parishcancollectivelyprovide58buses,0vans,5wheel chairaccessiblebuses,10wheelch airaccessiblevansand0ambulances.Thereareinsufficientresourcestoevacuatetheambulatoryandbed riddenpersonsfromthemedicalfacilitiesinasinglewave.Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverag es90minutes.Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.Table8 12andTable8 13summarizetheETEformedica lfacilitieswithintheEPZforgoodweatherandrain.Loadingtimesof1minute,5minutes,and15minutesareassumedforambulatorypatients,wheelchairboundpatients,andbedriddenpatients,respectively.AveragespeedsoutputbythemodelforScenario6(Scenario7forrain)Region3,cappedat55mph(50 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1mphforrain),areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundaryiscomputedbydividingthedistancetotheEPZboundarybytheaveragetravelspeed.TheETEisthesumofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelchairbuses/vans,andambulancesatcapacityisassumed.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,thecalculationofETEfortheTensasCareandRehabilitationCenterwith102ambulatoryresidentsduringgoodweatheris:ETE:90+30+6=126min.or2:10roundedtothenearest5minutes.Itisassumedthatmedi calfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughthereceptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.8.5 SpecialNeedsPopulationThecountyemergencymanagementagencieshaveacombinedregistrationfortransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.BasedondataprovidedbyClaiborneCounty,thereareanestimated164homeboundspecialneedspeoplewithintheClaiborneCountyportionoftheEPZwhorequiretransportationassistancetoevacuate.Det ailsonthenumberofambulatory,wheelchair boundandbedriddenpeoplewerenotavailable.Itisassumedthatthepercentageofambulatory(28%),wheelchair bound(34%)andbedriddenpopulations(38%)aresimilartothepercentagesobtainedformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZwhenaveraged.Thisresultsin46ambulatorypersons,56wheelchai r boundpersonsand62bedriddenpersons.ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsTable8 14summarizestheETEforhomeboundspecialneedspeople.Thetableiscategorizedbytypeofvehiclerequiredandthenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesintoconsiderationthedeploymentofmultiplevehiclestoreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.Itisconservativelyassumedthatambulatoryandwheelch airboundspecialneedshouseholdsarespaced3milesapartandbedriddenhouseholdsarespaced5milesapart.Vanandbusspeedsapproximate20mphbetweenhouseholdsandambulancespeedsapproximate30mphingoodweather(10%slowerinrain).Mobilizationtimesof105minuteswereused(115minutesforrain).Thelasthousehol disassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthenetwork wideaveragespeed,cappedat55mph(50mphforrain),afterthelastpickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.ETEiscomputedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtimeatfirsthousehold,traveltosubsequenthouseholds,loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,assumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperHHimpliesthat46ambulatoryhouseholdsneedtobeserviced.Whileonly2busesareneededfromacapacityperspective,if4busesaredeployedtoservicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequireabout12stops.Forhomeboundambulatorypeople,aloadingtimeof5minutesperperson(i.e.perstop)isused.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:

GrandGulfNuclearStation8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11. Assume4busesaredeployed,eachwithabout12stops,toserviceatotalof46HH.2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:105minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirstpickup:5minutesc. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:11@9minutes=99minutesd. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:11@5minutes=55minutese. TraveltoEPZboundary:11minutes(5miles@27.8mph).ETE:105+5+99+55+11=4:35roundedtothenearest5minutesThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculationsifasecondwaveisneededusingschoolbusesaftertheschoolshavebeenevacuated(seeTable8 15):a. SchoolbusesarriveatR.C.(averagevaluefromTable8 7):2:45b. Unloadstudentsathostschool:5minutes.c. Drivertakes10minuterest:10minutes.d. TraveltimebacktoEPZ:49minutes(averagetimeof"TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C."fromTable8 7)e. Bustravelstoallstops:12stops@9minutes=108minutesf. Loadingtimeatallstops:12stops@5minutes=60minut esg. TraveltimetoEPZboundary:11minutes(5miles@27.8mph)ETE:2:45+5+10+49+108+60+11=6:508.6 CorrectionalFacilitiesAsdetailedinTableE 16,thereisonecorrectionalfacilitywithintheEPZ-ClaiborneCountySheriffDepartment.Thetotalinmatepopulationatthesefacilitiesis25persons.Atotalof1busisneededtoevacuatethefacility,basedonacapacityof30inmatesperbus.Mobilizationtimeisassumedtobe90minutes(100minutesinrain).Itisestimatedthatittakes50minutestoloadthein matesontoabus.Thedetailedevacuationplansforthesefacilitiesareconfidential.UsingGISsoftware,theshortestroutefromthefacilitytotheEPZboundary,travelingawayfromtheplant,is5.9miles.Thetraveltimetotraverse5.9milesis8minutes(42.55mphat2:30)ingoodweather,8minutes(43.75mphat2:40)inrain.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.ETE:90+50+8=2:30RainETE:100+50+8=2:40 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter EBusExitsRegion FBusArrivesatReceptionCenter/HostFacilityGBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationService Activity A B DriverMobilization B C TraveltoFacilityortoPick upRoute C D PassengersBoardtheBus D E BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary E F BusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenterOutsidetheEPZ F G PassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreakFigure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time(SubsequentWave)

GrandGulfNuclearStation8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes GrandGulfNuclearStation8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimatedNo.ofHouseholdsSurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHH withCommutersSurveyPercentHH withNonReturning CommutersTotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharing PercentagePeopleRequiringPublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiringPublicTransit01201210,9672.292.202.854,04710%32%35%61%33%1,288550%6445.9%

GrandGulfNuclearStation8 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesPAS/PAASchoolNameEnrollment BusesRequiredCLAIBORNECOUNTY,MS4AA.W.WatsonElementarySchool815124ARichardsonHeadstart17434AChildDayCareKindergarten 284AHeavenlyAngelsDaycare 2704APortGibsonHighSchool551134AClaiborneCountyVo Tech1114AKatherine'sDaycareandLearning 2204APortGibsonMiddleSchool40294AConcernedCitizensDaycare 264AChamberlainHuntAcademy10124ALittleKidsUniversity 2364AClaiborneEducationalFoundation1514BGod'sLittleBee'sChildCare 2176AlcornStateUniversity 14,01810TENSASPARISH,LA9NewelltonChristianAcademy3619NewelltonElementarySchool225411LittleGreenNursery 21211TensasAcademy194311TensasHighSchool415911TensasElementarySchool2023TOTAL: 7,328711 ASUtotalenrollmentis4,018,butonly284studentsconsideredforbuses.SeeSection3.3fordetails2Daycareslistedwillprovidetheirowntransportationforevacuatingstudents GrandGulfNuclearStation8 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.SchoolReceptionCentersSchoolReceptionCenterCLAIBORNECOUNTY,MSA.W.WatsonElementarySchoolHazlehurstHighSchoolRichardsonHeadstartChildDayCareKindergartenHeavenlyAngelsDaycarePortGibsonHighSchoolClairborneCountyVo TechKatherine'sDaycareandLearningPortGibsonMiddleSchoolConcernedCitizensDaycareChamberlain HuntAcademyLittleKidsUniversityClaiborneEducationalFoundationGod'sLittleBee'sChildCareAlcornStateUniversityNatchezHighSchoolTENSASPARISH,LANewelltonChristianAcademyRichmondCivicCenterNewelltonElementarySchoolLittleGreenNurseryTensasAcademyFerridayHighSchoolTensasHighSchoolTensasElementarySchool GrandGulfNuclearStation8 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemandPAS/PAAFacilityNameMunicipalityCurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedridden BusRunsWheelchairBusRunsAmbulance 3AClaiborneCountyNursingCenterPortGibson7428262012104AClaiborneCountyHospitalPortGibson12246113ClaiborneCountySubtotal: 8630302623139TensasCare&RehabilitationCenter Newellton10210200400TensasParishSubtotal: 10210200400TOTAL: 18813230266313 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceDriversBusesVansWheelchair BusesWheelchair VansAmbulances ResourcesAvailableRichardsonHeadstart9ClaiborneCountyPublicSchools292ClaiborneCounty410TensasParishPublicSchools113TensasAcademy2Chamberlain HuntAcademy3TOTAL: 125805100ResourcesNeededSchools(Table8 2): 71MedicalFacilities(Table8 4): 6313TransitDependentPopulation(Table8 10): 22HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5): 41431CorrectionalFacilities(Section8.6): 1TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 104031444 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1TransitDependentRoute144,9,10,11,12,13,14,41,15,42,43,3,101,102,401,105,106,133,134,1352TransitDependentRoute228,27,406,26,25,24,23,22,20,380,19,110,409,173,311,174,175,176,1773TransitDependentRoute3223,222,234,221,233,224,225,238,239,2404TransitDependentRoute4286,287,288,289,282,281,283,310,284,291,292,228,2295TransitDependentRoute5254,255,256,237,225,238,239,2406TensasAcademy284,291,292,228,2297TensasPublicSchools291,292,228,2298NewelltonAreaSchoolsandMedicalFacilities256,237,2259AWWatsonElementarySchool405,404,163,165,17,18,19,110,409,173,311,174,175,176,17710PortGibsonHighSchool17,18,19,110,409,173,311,174,175,176,17711PortGibsonMiddleSchool,ConcernedCitizen'sDaycare19,110,409,173,311,174,175,176,17712ClaiborneEducationalFoundation110,409,173,311,174,175,176,17713RichardsonHeadstart,ChildCareKindergarten163,165,17,18,19,110,409,173,311,174,175,176,17714Katherine'sDaycareandLearning107,162,165,17,18,19,110,409,173,311,174,175,176,17715ClaiborneCountyVo Tech107,17,18,19,110,409,173,311,174,175,176,17716LittleBeesChildCare20,380,19,110,409,173,311,174,175,176,17717AlcornStateUniversity402,70,6918TransitDependentRoute671,75,72,76,77,7819TransitDependentRoute73,101,102,401,105,106,133,134,135,136,137,138,205,139,140,141,142,143,144 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobili zationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)Average Speed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)BusReadyForSecondWave(min)SecondWaveETE(hr:min)SecondWaveETEtoR.C.CLAIBORNESCHOOLSA.W.WatsonElementarySchool90156.142.891:5539.1522:502404:255:15RichardsonHeadstart90155.943.881:5539.1522:452404:255:15ChildDayCareKindergarten90155.943.881:5539.1522:452404:255:15HeavenlyAngelsDaycare90154.251.351:5039.1522:452384:205:10PortGibsonHigh90155.647.071:5539.1522:452394:255:15ClaiborneCountyVo Tech90155.745.081:5539.1522:452404:255:15Katherine'sDaycareandLearning90156.142.991:5539.1522:502404:255:15PortGibsonMiddleSchool90154.748.061:5539.1522:452384:205:15ConcernedCitizensDaycare90154.748.061:5539.1522:452384:205:15ChamberlainHuntAcademy90154.748.061:5539.1522:452384:205:15LittleKidsUniversity90154.748.061:5539.1522:452384:205:15ClaiborneEducationalFoundation90154.251.351:5039.1522:452384:205:10God'sLittleBee'sChildCare90156.246.981:5539.1522:452404:255:15AlcornStateUniversity90150.428.511:5038.1512:402324:105:00TENSASSCHOOLSNewelltonChristianAcademy90151.331.031:5025.9352:252304:104:45NewelltonElementary90151.331.031:5025.9352:252304:104:45LittleGreenNursery90153.733.771:5525.9352:301803:254:00TensasAcademy90153.733.771:5535.4472:401803:254:10TensasHighSchool90152.537.741:5035.4472:401803:204:10TensasElementary90152.537.741:5035.4472:401803:204:10MaximumforEPZ:1:55Maximum:2:50Maximum:4:255:15AverageforEPZ:1:50Average:2:45Average:4:105:00 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed (mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)BusReadyForSecondWave(min)SecondWaveETE(hr:min)SecondWaveETEtoR.C.CLAIBORNESCHOOLSA.W.WatsonElementarySchool100206.139.0 92:1039.1593:102685:006:00RichardsonHeadstart100205.940.0 92:1039.1593:102685:005:55ChildDayCareKindergarten100205.940.0 92:1039.1593:102685:005:55HeavenlyAngelsDaycare100204.245.5 62:1039.1593:052654:555:50PortGibsonHighSchool100205.642.5 82:1039.1593:102674:555:55ClaiborneCountyVo Tech100205.741.5 82:1039.1593:102685:005:55Katherine'sDaycareandLearning100206.140.0 92:1039.1593:102685:006:00PortGibsonMiddleSchool100204.743.4 72:1039.1593:102664:555:55ConcernedCitizensDaycare100204.743.4 72:1039.1593:102664:555:55ChamberlainHuntAcademy100204.743.4 72:1039.1593:102664:555:55LittleKidsUniversity100204.743.4 72:1039.1593:102664:555:55ClaiborneEducationalFoundation100204.245.5 62:1039.1593:052654:555:50God'sLittleBee'sChildCare100206.242.5 92:1039.1593:102685:006:00AlcornStateUniversity100200.425.7 12:0538.1573:002584:405:40TENSASSCHOOLSNewelltonChristianAcademy100201.328.632:0525.9392:452574:455:20NewelltonElementarySchool100201.328.632:0525.9392:452574:455:20LittleGreenNursery100203.731.872:1025.9392:502003:504:30TensasAcademy100203.731.872:1035.4533:002003:504:45TensasHighSchool100202.536.142:0535.4533:002003:454:40TensasElementarySchool100202.536.142:0535.4533:002003:454:40MaximumforEPZ:2:10Maximum:3:10Maximum:5:006:00AverageforEPZ:2:10Average:3:05Average:4:455:35 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutesRouteNo.ofBusesRouteDescriptionLength(mi.)11TransitDependentRoute1ServicingPAS/PAA1,2A,2Band712.425TransitDependentRoute2ServicingPAS/PAA4A,4B6.031TransitDependentRoute3ServicingNewelltonPAS/PAA8and97.544TransitDependentRoute4ServicingPAS/PAA10,11andSaintJoseph5.652TransitDependentRoute5ServicingNewelltonandPAS/PAA8and91.266TransitDependentRoute6ServicingPAS/PAA5A,5BandASU3.073TransitDependentRoute7ServicingPAS/PAA3Aand3B5.5Total:22

GrandGulfNuclearStation8 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)Route TravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)1110512.455.014302:3022.02951059304:45231056.052.47302:2539.15251067305:1021206.051.77302:4039.15251067305:25311057.555.08302:2525.93551053304:40421055.639.88302:2535.44751063305:0021205.642.68302:4035.44751064305:15511051.241.42302:2033.44551048304:4011201.241.32302:3533.44551048304:55641053.139.35302:2038.15151060305:0021203.139.35302:3538.15151060305:15721055.555.06302:2518.12451037304:1511205.555.06302:4018.12451037304:30MaximumETE:2:40MaximumETE:5:25AverageETE:2:30AverageETE:4:55 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)1111512.450.015402:5022.03351064405:25231156.047.68402:4539.15951074405:5521306.039.39403:0039.15951074406:10311157.550.09402:4525.93951058405:20421155.638.29402:4535.45351071405:4521305.639.29403:0035.45351071406:00511151.237.72402:4033.45051054405:2011301.237.52402:5533.45051054405:35641153.135.55402:4038.15751067405:4021303.135.45402:5538.15751067405:55721155.550.07402:4518.12751041404:5011305.550.07403:0018.12751041405:05MaximumETE:3:00MaximumETE:6:10AverageETE:2:50AverageETE:5:35 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)ClaiborneCountyNursingCenterAmbulatory90128286.292:10Wheelchairbound90526756.292:55Bedridden901520306.292:10ClaiborneCountyHospitalAmbulatory901224.761:40Wheelchairbound9054204.762:00Bedridden90156304.762:10TensasCare&RehabilitationCenterAmbulatory901102303.762:10MaximumETE:2:55AverageETE:2:10Table813.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)Loading Rate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)ClaiborneCountyNursingCenterAmbulatory100128286.292:20Wheelchairbound100526756.293:05Bedridden1001520306.292:20ClaiborneCountyHospitalAmbulatory1001224.761:50Wheelchairbound10054204.772:10Bedridden100156304.772:20TensasCare&RehabilitationCenterAmbulatory1001102303.772:20MaximumETE:3:05AverageETE:2:20 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table814.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimatesVehicleTypePeopleRequiringVehicleVehiclesdeployedStopsWeatherConditionsMobiliza tionTime(min)LoadingTimeat1 stStop(min)TraveltoSubsequentStops(min)TotalLoadingTimeatSubsequentStops(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)Buses46412Good10559955114:35Rain115110125:00WheelchairVans56144Good10552715102:45Rain11530123:00Ambulances62312Good105151015102:35Rain11510122:50MaximumETE:5:00AverageETE:3:30Table815.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsEvacuationTimeEstimatesSecondWaveforAmbulatoryusingSchoolBusesVehicleTypePeopleRequiringVehicleVehiclesdeployedStopsWeatherConditionsOneWaveETE 1(hr:min)UnloadPassengers(min)DriverRest(min)TravelTimeBacktoEPZ 2(min)TraveltoAllStops(min)TotalLoadingTimeatAllStops(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)Buses4645Good2:455104910860116:50MaximumETE:6:50AverageETE:6:50 GrandGulfNuclearStation8 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table816.CorrectionalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesSecondWaveforAmbulatoryCorrectionalFacilityWeatherConditionsMobilization(min)NumberofBusesLoadingRate(minperperson)NumberofInmatesTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)ClaiborneCountySheriffDepartmentGood901225505.982:30Rain10082:40MaximumETE:2:40AverageETE:2:35 GrandGulfNuclearStation9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).* TrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.ThesedevicesshouldcomplywiththeguidanceoftheManualofUniformTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.Allstateandmostcounty/parishtransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisavailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. Facilitat eevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Theterms"facilitate"and"discourage"areemployedratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forex ample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR 7002.2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.Thisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionstha texperiencepronouncedcongestion.3. TheexistingTCPsandACPs,andhowtheywereappliedinthisstudy,arediscussedinAppendixG.4. PrioritizationofTCPsandACPs.ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandACPswillhaveamore GrandGulfNuclearStation9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1pronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmovementsthanatotherTCPsandACPs.Forexample,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromthepowerplant.Theseprioritiesshouldbeassignedbystate/countyemergencymanagementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.TheuseofIntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)technologies(ifavailable)canreducemanpowerandequipmentneeds,whilestillfacilitatingtheevacuationprocess.DynamicMessageSigns(DMS)canbeplacedwithintheEPZtoprovideinformationtotravelersregardingtrafficconditions,routeselection,andreceptioncenterinformation.DMScanalsobeplacedo utsideoftheEPZtowarnmotoriststoavoidusingroutesthatmayconflictwiththeflowofevacueesawayfromthepowerplant.HighwayAdvisoryRadio(HAR)canbeusedtobroadcastinformationtoevacueesenroutethroughtheirvehiclestereosystems.AutomatedTravelerInformationSystems(ATIS)canalsobeusedtoprovideevacueeswithinformation.Internetwebsitescanprovidetrafficandevacuationrouteinformationbeforetheevacueebeginstheirtrip,whileonboardnavigationsystems(GPSunits),cellphones,andpagerscanbeusedtoprovideinformationenroute.TheseareonlyseveralexamplesofhowITStechnologiescanbenefittheevacuationprocess.ConsiderationshouldbegiventhatITStechnologiesbeusedtofacilitatetheevacuationprocess,andanyadditionalsignageplacedshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.Chapters2Nand5G,andPart6ofthe2009MUTCDareparticularlyrelevantandshouldbereviewedduringemergencyresponsetraining.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"externalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter2hourshaveelapsedfromtheATE.AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningACPsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussACPandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.

GrandGulfNuclearStation10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromaPAS/PAAbeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsu chawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1presentsamapshowingthegeneralpopulationandschoolreceptioncentersforevacuees.Themajorev acuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 2.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriatereceptioncenterandsubsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transit de pendentevacueesaretransportedtothenearestreceptioncenterforeachcounty/parish.Thisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstoshelterfacilities,ifthecountyorparishdoesmakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.

GrandGulfNuclearStation10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationandSchoolReceptionCenters GrandGulfNuclearStation10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.MajorEvacuationRoutesfortheGGNSEPZ GrandGulfNuclearStation11 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.111 SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONSThereisaneedforsurveillanceoftrafficoperationsduringtheevacuation.Thereisalsoaneedtoclearanyblockageofroadwaysarisingfromaccidentsorvehicledisablement.Surveillancecantakeseveralforms.1. Trafficcontrolpersonnel,locatedatTrafficControlandAccessControlpoints,providefixed pointsurveillance.2. Groundpatrolsmaybeundertakenalongwell definedpathstoensurecoverageofthosehighwaysthatserveasmajorevacuationroutes.3. Aerialsurveillanceofevacuationoperationsmayalsobeconductedusinghelicopterorfixed wingaircraft,ifavailable.4. Cellularphonecalls(ifcellularcoverageexists)frommotoristsmayalsoprovidedirectfieldreportsofroadblockages.TheseconcurrentsurveillanceproceduresaredesignedtoprovidecoverageoftheentireEPZaswellastheareaarounditsperiphery.ItistheresponsibilityoftheCountiesandParishestosupportanemergencyresponsesystemthatcanreceivemessagesfromthefieldandbeinapositiontorespondtoan yreportedproblemsinatimelymanner.Thiscoverageshouldquicklyidentify,andexpeditetheresponsetoanyblockagecausedbyadisabledvehicle.TowVehiclesInalow speedtrafficenvironment,anyvehicledisablementislikelytoariseduetoalow speedcollision,mechanicalfailureortheexhaustionofitsfuelsupply.Inanycase,thedisabledvehiclecanbepushedontotheshoulder,therebyrestoringtrafficflow.Pastexperienceinotheremergenciesindicatesthatevacueeswhoareleavinganareaoftenperformactivitiessuchaspushingadisabledvehicletothesideoftheroadwithoutprom pting.Whiletheneedfortowvehiclesisexpectedtobelowunderthecircumstancesdescribedabove,itisstillprudenttobepreparedforsuchaneed.Considerationshouldbegiventhattowtruckswithasupplyofgasolinebedeployedatstrategiclo cationswithin,orjustoutside,theEPZ.Theselocationsshouldbeselectedsothat: Theypermitaccesstokey,heavilyloaded,evacuationroutes. Respondingtowtruckswouldmostlikelytravelcounter flowrelativetoevacuatingtraffic.Considerationshouldalsobegiventhatthestateandlocalemergencymanagementagenciesencouragegasstationstoremainopenduringtheevacuation.

GrandGulfNuclearStation12 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.112 CONFIRMATIONTIMEItisnecessarytoconfirmthattheevacuationprocessiseffectiveinthesensethatthepubliciscomplyingwiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheEPZcountyradiologicalemergencyplansdonotdiscussaprocedureforconfirmingevacuation.Shouldproceduresnotalreadyexist,thefollowingalternativeorcomplementaryapproachissuggest ed.Thesuggestedprocedureemploysastratifiedrandomsampleandatelephonesurvey.ThesizeofthesampleisdependentontheexpectednumberofhouseholdsthatdonotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Itisreasonabletoassume,forthepurposeofestimatingsamplesizethatatleast80percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZwillcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Onthisbasis,ananalysiscouldbeundertaken(seeTable12 1)toyieldanestimatedsamplesizeofapproximately300.Theconfirmationprocessshouldstartatabout23/4hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,whichiswhenapproximatel y90percentofpermanentresidentevacueeshavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivities(seeTable5 8).Atthistime,virtuallyallevacueeswillhavedepartedontheirrespectivetripsandthelocaltelephonesystemwillbelargelyfreeoftraffic.AsindicatedinTable12 1,approximately71/2personho ursareneededtocompletethetelephonesurvey.Ifsixpeopleareassignedtothistask,eachdialingadifferentsetoftelephoneexchanges(e.g.,eachpersoncanbeassignedadifferentsetofPAA/PAS),thentheconfirmationprocesswillextendoveratimeframeofabout75minutes.Thu s,theconfirmationshouldbecompletedbeforetheevacuatedareaiscleared.Ofcourse,fewerpeoplewouldbeneededforthissurveyiftheEvacuationRegionwereonlyaportionoftheEPZ.Useofmodernautomatedcomputercontrolleddialingequipmentorothertechnologies(e.g.,reverse911orequivalentifavailable)cansignificantlyredu cethemanpowerrequirementsandthetimerequiredtoundertakethistypeofconfirmationsurvey.Ifthismethodisindeedusedbytheoffsiteagencies,considerationshouldbegiventomaintainalistoftelephonenumberswithintheEPZinthe(EOC)atalltimes.Suchalistcouldbepurchasedfromvendorsandcouldbeperiodicallyupdated.Asindicatedabove,theconfirmationprocesssh ouldnotbeginuntil23/4hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,toensurethathouseholdshavehadenoughtimetomobilize.This23/4hourtimeframewillenabletelephoneoperatorstoarriveattheirworkplace,obtainacalllistandpreparetomakethenecessaryphonecalls.Shouldthenumberoftelephoneresponses(i.e.,peoplestillathome)exceed20percent,thenthetelephonesurveyshouldberepeatedafteranhour'sintervaluntiltheconfirmationprocessiscompleted.Othertechniquescouldalsobeconsidered.Aftertrafficvolumesdecline,thepersonne lmanningTCPscanberedeployedtotravelthroughresidentialareastoobserveandtoconfirmevacuationactivities.

GrandGulfNuclearStation12 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuationProblemDefinitionEstimatenumberofphonecalls,n,neededtoascertaintheproportion,Fofhouseholdsthathavenotevacuated.

Reference:

Burstein,H.,AttributeSampling,McGrawHill,1971Given: No.ofhouseholdsplusotherfacilities,N,withintheEPZ(est.)=5,000 Est.proportion,F,ofhouseholdsthatwillnotevacuate=0.20 Allowableerrormargin,e:0.05 Confidencelevel,:0.95(impliesA=1.96)ApplyingTable10ofcitedreference,Finitepopulationcorrection:

Thus,some300telephonecallswillconfirmthatapproximately20percentofthepopulationhasnotevacuated.Ifonly10percentofthepopulationdoesnotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate,thentherequiredsamplesize,n F=207.

Est.PersonHourstocomplete300telephonecallsAssume: Timetodialusingtouchtone(randomselectionoflistednumbers):30seconds Timefor6rings(noanswer):36seconds Timefor4ringsplusshortconversation:60sec. Intervalbetweencalls:20sec.PersonHours:

APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms GrandGulfNuclearStationA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red.

GrandGulfNuclearStationA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.

APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel GrandGulfNuclearStationB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost".OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.

GrandGulfNuclearStationB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel GrandGulfNuclearStationB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a=

ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.

GrandGulfNuclearStationB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepres entsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

GrandGulfNuclearStationB 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?

Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel GrandGulfNuclearStationC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics GrandGulfNuclearStationC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network GrandGulfNuclearStationC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks GrandGulfNuclearStationC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 8007 8006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx GrandGulfNuclearStationC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.

GrandGulfNuclearStationC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams GrandGulfNuclearStationC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp GrandGulfNuclearStationC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelengthofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.

GrandGulfNuclearStationC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength.

GrandGulfNuclearStationC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.

GrandGulfNuclearStationC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.

GrandGulfNuclearStationC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,.

Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:

GrandGulfNuclearStationC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm GrandGulfNuclearStationC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.

GrandGulfNuclearStationC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes GrandGulfNuclearStationC 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.

APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure GrandGulfNuclearStationD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.Employeeandtransientdatawasprovidedbylocalparishandcountyemergencymanagementagencies.Informationconcerningschools,medicalandothertypesofspecialfacilitieswithintheEPZwasobtainedfromcountyandmunicipalsources,augmentedbytelephonecontactswiththeidentifiedfacilities.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(LouisianaStateDEQandMississippiEmergencyManagementAgencyandlocalTensasParishandClaiborneCountyemergencymanagers,localandstatelawenforcementagencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.SpecificrequestsforinformationwerepresentedtoTensasParishandClaiborneCountyemergencymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconducted(in2008)toidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredto GrandGulfNuclearStationD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1performpre evacuationmobilizationactivities.Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto16PAS/PAA.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofPAS/PAA)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossess GrandGulfNuclearStationD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1thenecessarypracticalexperiencetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputst reammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thenth eprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroutespecificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentandspecialf acilitypopulationgroups.Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgeneration GrandGulfNuclearStationD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1distributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset.Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.

GrandGulfNuclearStationD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXESpecialFacilityData GrandGulfNuclearStationE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. SPECIALFACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofJuly2012,forspecialfacilitiestransientattractionsandmajoremployersthatarelocatedwithintheGrandGulfNuclearStationEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,daycarecenters,hospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities,andcorrectionalfacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforrecreationalareasandlodgingfacilities.Employmentdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Eachtableisgroupedbycounty.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,daycarecenter,recreationalarea,lodgingfacilities,andmajoremployersarealsoprovided.

GrandGulfNuclearStationE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.Schools&DaycareswithintheEPZPAS/PAADistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnrollmentStaffCLAIBORNECOUNTY,MS4A4.2SEA.W.WatsonElementarySchoolOilMillRdPortGibson6014375070815944A4.6SERichardsonHeadstart411OsageStreetPortGibson6014374094174574A4.9SEChildDayCareKindergarten301MarketStreetPortGibson6014373798814A5.0SEHeavenlyAngelsDaycareChurchSt&OrangeStPortGibson601437320070114A5.2SEPortGibsonHighSchoolCollegeSt&JacksonStPortGibson6014374190551914A5.2SEClaiborneCountyVo TechCollegeSt&JacksonStPortGibson60143738001124A5.2SEKatherine'sDaycareandLearning509WalnutStreetPortGibson60143732222034A5.3SEPortGibsonMiddleSchoolRamseyDrive&ChurchStPortGibson6014374251402504A5.4SEConcernedCitizensDaycare1402CollegeStreetPortGibson6014373677634A5.5SEChamberlainHuntAcademy124McCombAvenuePortGibson6014374291101604A5.6SELittleKidsUniversityUS61&SunsetHillRdPortGibson60143785763654A5.7SEClaiborneEducationalFoundationHortonDrive&LumLnPortGibson60143740971554B6.5SSEGod'sLittleBee'sChildCare5022US61SouthPortGibson6014378220173610.4SSWAlcornStateUniversity 11000ASUDRIVEAlcornState60187761514,018ClaiborneCountySubtotals:6,244385TENSASPARISH,LA911.9WNWNewelltonChristianAcademyVeronaSt&MainStNewellton3184675755366912.3WNWNewelltonElementarySchool500VeronaStNewellton3184675109225521112.6WSWLittleGreenNurseryPaulineStreet&StateHwy128SaintJoseph31876633801221112.6WSWTensasAcademy418StateHwy128SaintJoseph3187664384194261112.8WSWTensasHighSchoolPlankRd&MarthaStSaintJoseph3187663585415531112.9WSWTensasElementarySchoolPlankRd&WoodlandAveSaintJoseph318766334620213TensasParishSubtotals:1,084152TOTAL:7,3285371SeeSection3.3forDetailsregardingStudentpopulationforASUandpopulationdistributionsincludingemployees.

GrandGulfNuclearStationE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZPAS/PAADistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCurrentCensusAmbu latoryPatientsWheel chairPatientsBedriddenPatientsCLAIBORNECOUNTY,MS3A4.9SEClaiborneCountyNursingCenterOldUS61&US61PortGibson6014378737742826204A5.6SEClaiborneCountyHospital123McCombAvePortGibson601437514112246ClaiborneCountySubtotals:86303026TENSASPARISH,LA912.7WNWTensasCare&RehabilitationCenter901VeronaStNewellton3184675117102000TensasParishSubtotals:102000TOTAL:188303026 GrandGulfNuclearStationE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZPAS/PAADistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)CLAIBORNECOUNTY,MS1GrandGulfNuclearStation7003BaldHillRdPortGibson601437280070185.0%5963A4.9SEClaiborneCountyNursingCenterOldUS61&US61PortGibson60143787379580.0%424A4.2SEA.W.WatsonElementarySchoolOilMillRdPortGibson60143750709480.0%754A4.6SERichardsonHeadstart411OsageStreetPortGibson60143740945780.0%464A5.2SEPortGibsonHighSchoolCollegeSt&JacksonStPortGibson60143741909180.0%734A5.3SEPortGibsonMiddleSchoolRamseyDrive&ChurchStPortGibson60143742515080.0%404A5.5SEChamberlainHuntAcademy124McCombAvenuePortGibson60143742916080.0%48610.4SSWAlcornStateUniversity1000ASUDriveAlcornState6018776151SeeSection3.3CountyASubtotals:1,148920TENSASPARISH,LA1112.8WSWTensasHighSchoolPlankRd&MarthaStSaintJoseph31876635855380.0%42912.3WNWNewelltonElementarySchool500VeronaStNewellton31846751095280.0%42912.7WNWTensasCare&RehabilitationCenter901VeronaStNewellton31846751176880.0%54CountyASubtotals:173138TOTAL:1,3211,058 GrandGulfNuclearStationE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZPAS/PAADistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesCLAIBORNECOUNTY,MS11.2NNWGrandGulfMilitaryMonument12006GrandGulfRdPortGibson60143759111212ClaiborneCountyHuntingandFishingSubtotals(FigureE 8):600420ClaiborneCountySubtotals:612432TENSASPARISH,LA1010.1WSWLakeBruinStateParkStateHwy604&RobertsonNewellton31876635302525TensasParishHuntingandFishingSubtotals(FigureE8):107TensasParishSubtotals:3532TOTAL:647464 GrandGulfNuclearStationE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZPAS/PAADistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesCLAIBORNECOUNTY,MS2B5.4EGrandGulfInnUS61&GrandGulfRdPortGibson601437881114070ClaiborneCountySubtotals:14070TENSASPARISH,LA1010.1WSWLakeBruinMotel&GrillStateHwy604&RobertsonSaintJoseph31876660077035TensasParishSubtotals:7035TOTAL:210105TableE 6.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZPAS/PAADistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCapacityCLAIBORNECOUNTY,MS4A4.9SEClaiborneCountySheriffDepartmentMainStreet&OliveStPortGibson601437516125ClaiborneCountySubtotal:25TENSASPARISH,LA911.8WNWJ.B.EvansCorrectionalCenterFacilityhasbeenclosedTensasParishSubtotal:0TOTAL:25 GrandGulfNuclearStationE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZ GrandGulfNuclearStationE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.SchoolsandDaycareswithinPortGibson,MS GrandGulfNuclearStationE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ GrandGulfNuclearStationE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ GrandGulfNuclearStationE 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ GrandGulfNuclearStationE 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 6.LodgingwithintheEPZ GrandGulfNuclearStationE 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 7.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ GrandGulfNuclearStationE 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 8.HuntingandFishingCampswithintheEPZ APPENDIXFTelephoneSurvey GrandGulfNuclearStationF 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F. TELEPHONESURVEYF.1 IntroductionThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesfortheGrandGulfNuclearStationEPZrequirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseverallimitationswhenappliedtoemergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneededtoidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,Censusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfr omthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlymaynotaccuratelyrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.Theseconcernsareaddressedbyco nductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleoftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerningfamilydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthesurveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheform"Whatwouldyoudoif-?"andotherquestionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar("Howlongdo esittakeyouto-?")

GrandGulfNuclearStationF 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlanAttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthesurveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeofapproximately500completedsurveyformsyi eldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4.5%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alistofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF 1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlayingCensusdataandtheEPZboundary,againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsforeachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF 1.NotethattheaveragehouseholdsizecomputedinTableF 1wasanestimateforsamplingpurposesandwasnotuse dintheETEstudy.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.TableF 1.GGNSTelephoneSurveySamplingPlanZipCodePopulationwithinEPZ(2004)HouseholdsRequiredSample391509,1453,362368713573,2941,211132Total12,4394,573500AverageHouseholdSize: 2.72TotalSampleRequired: 500 GrandGulfNuclearStationF 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3 SurveyResultsTheresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsoftheareacanbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobileownership,andautomobileavailability.Thedistributionsofthetimetoperformcertainpre evacuationactivitiesarethesecondcategoryofsurveyresults.Thesedataareprocessedtodevelopthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedinSection5.Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshavea"don'tknow"(DK)or"refused"entryforaresponse.Itisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthi stypetoaccepttheanswersofarespondentwhooffersaDKresponseforafewquestionsorwhorefusestoanswerafewquestions.ToaddresstheissueofoccasionalDK/refusedresponsesfromalargesample,thepracticeistoassumethatthedistributionoftheseresponsesisthesameasth eunderlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDK/refusedresponsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResultsHouseholdSizeFigureF 1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ.Theaveragehouseholdcontains2.71people.Theestimatedhouseholdsize(2.72persons)usedtodeterminethesurveysample(TableF 1)wasdrawnfromCensusdata.ThecloseagreementbetweentheaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthesurveyandfromtheCensusisanindicationofthereliabilit yofthesurvey.FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ0%10%20%

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%ofHouseholds HouseholdSizeGrandGulfHouseholdSize GrandGulfNuclearStationF 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AutomobileOwnershipTheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis1.82.Itshouldbenotedthatapproximately10.5percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF 2.FigureF 3andFigureF 4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.Notethatthemajorityofhouseholdswithoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2ormorepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability0%10%20%

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%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesGrandGulfVehicleAvailability GrandGulfNuclearStationF 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholdsFigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to10PersonHouseholds 0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 1 5PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 0%20%

40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 6 9+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9People 10People GrandGulfNuclearStationF 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommutersFigureF 5presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.04commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ,and61%ofhouseholdshaveatleastonecommuter.FigureF 5.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ0%10%20%30%

40%50%01234+%ofHouseholds NumberofCommutersGrandGulfCommuters GrandGulfNuclearStationF 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommuterTravelModesFigureF 6presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.04employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.FigureF 6.ModesofTravelintheEPZ0.0%3.0%1.4%89.7%5.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%RailBusWalk/BikeDriveAloneCarpool(2+)%ofCommuters ModeofTravelGrandGulfTravelModetoWork GrandGulfNuclearStationF 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3.2 EvacuationResponseSeveralquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulation'sresponsetoanemergency.Thesearenowdiscussed:"Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?"TheresponseisshowninFigureF 7.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.46vehicles."Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?"Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,67percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembersbeforeevacuatingand33percentindicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembers.FigureF 7.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVehiclesUsedforEvacuation GrandGulfNuclearStationF 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3.4 TimeDistributionResultsThesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuationactivities.Theseactivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheirday to daylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftheresponder'sexperience.ThemobilizationdistributionsprovidedbelowaretheresultofhavingappliedtheanalysisdescribedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization."Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?"FigureF 8presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyabout120minutes.Approximatelyeighty fivepercentcanleavewithin50minutes.FigureF 8.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School0%20%40%60%80%100%020406080100120

%ofCommuters PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork GrandGulfNuclearStationF 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?"FigureF 9presentstheworktohometraveltimefortheEPZ.About89percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithinabout50minutesofleavingwork;nearlyallwithin90minutes.FigureF 9.WorktoHomeTravelTime0%20%40%

60%

80%100%020406080100120

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)WorktoHomeTravel GrandGulfNuclearStationF 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?"FigureF 10presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthisactivitymimicsafamily'spreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.ThedistributionshowninFigureF 10hasalong"tail."About92percentofhouseholdscanbereadytoleavehomewithin90minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditionalhourandfortyfiveminutes.FigureF10.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuationF.4 ConclusionsThetelephonesurveyprovidesvaluable,relevantdataassociatedwiththeEPZpopulation,whichhavebeenusedtoquantifydemographicsspecifictotheEPZ,and"mobilizationtime"whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180

%ofHouseholds PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome GrandGulfNuclearStationF 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ATTACHMENTATelephoneSurveyInstrument GrandGulfNuclearStationF 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TelephoneSurveyInstrumentPreamble # 1 - Used for Mississippi Zip Code (39150) Calls Hello, my name is _______________ and I'm working on a survey being made for [insert marketing firm name] designed to identify local travel patterns in your area. The information obtained will be used in a traffic engineering study and in connection with an update of the county's

emergency response plans. Your participation in this survey will greatly enhance the county's emergency preparedness program.

Preamble # 2 - Used for Louisiana Zip Code (71357) Calls

Hello, my name is _______________ and I'm working on a survey being made for [insert marketing firm name] designed to identify local travel patterns in your area. The information obtained will be used in a traffic engineering study and in connection with an update of your parish's

emergency response plans. Your participation in this survey will greatly enhance the parish's emergency preparedness program.

Sex COL. 8 1 Male 2 Female

__________________________________________________________________________________________

DO NOT ASK:

1A. Record area code. To Be Determined

COL. 9-11 1B. Record exchange number. To Be Determined

COL. 12-14

__________________________________________________________________________________________ 2. What is your home Zip Code Col. 15-19

3. In total, how many cars, or other vehicles COL.20 are usually available to the household? 1 ONE (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE)

X REFUSED

__________________________________________________________________________________________

4. How many people usually live in this COL.21 COL.22 household? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 1 ONE 0 TEN 2 TWO 1 ELEVEN 3 THREE 2 TWELVE 4 FOUR 3 THIRTEEN 5 FIVE 4 FOURTEEN 6 SIX 5 FIFTEEN 7 SEVEN 6 SIXTEEN 8 EIGHT 7 SEVENTEEN 9 NINE 8 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE X REFUSED GrandGulfNuclearStationF 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15. How many children living in this COL.23 household go to local public, 0 ZERO private, or parochial schools? 1 ONE (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE X REFUSED
6. How many people in the household COL.24 SKIP TO commute to a job, or to college, 0 ZERO Q. 12 at least 4 times a week? 1 ONE Q. 7 2 TWO Q. 7 3 THREE Q. 7 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 7 5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 12

INTERVIEWER: For each person identified in Question 6, ask Questions 7, 8, 9, and 10.

7. Thinking about commuter #1, how does that person usually travel to work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER.)

Commuter #1 Commuter #2 Commuter #3 Commuter #4 COL.25 COL.26 COL.27 COL.28 Rail 1 1 1 1 Bus 2 2 2 2

Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3

Driver Car/Van 4 4 4 4

Park & Ride (Car/Rail, Xpress_bus) 5 5 5 5

Driver Carpool-2 or more people 6 6 6 6

Passenger Carpool-2 or more people 7 7 7 7

Taxi 8 8 8 8

Refused 9 9 9 9

8. What is the name of the city, town or community in which Commuter #1 works or attends school? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER.) (FILL IN ANSWER.)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4

_________ _____ _________ _____ _________ _____ _________ _____

City/Town State City/Town State City/Town State City/Town State COL.29 COL.30 COL.31 COL.32 COL.33 COL.34 COL.35 COL.36 COL.37 COL.38 COL.39 COL.40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 GrandGulfNuclearStationF 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19. How long would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER.) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL.41 COL.42 COL.43 COL.44 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY _____) (SPECIFY _____)

9 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL.45 COL.46 COL.47 COL.48 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES ~ 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY _____) (SPECIFY _____)

9 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

GrandGulfNuclearStationF 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110. Approximately how long does it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER.) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 49 COL.50 COL.51 COL. 52 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY _____) (SPECIFY _____)

9 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 53 COL. 54 COL. 55 COL. 56 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES ~ 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY _____) (SPECIFY _____)

9 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

11. When the commuters are away from home, is there a vehicle at home that is available for evacuation during any emergency?

Col. 57 1 Yes 2 No 3 Don't Know/Refused

GrandGulfNuclearStationF 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.112. If time permits, would you await the return of family members prior to evacuating the area?

Col. 58 1 Yes 2 No 3 Don't Know/Refused

13. How many of the vehicles that are usually available to the household would your family use during an evacuation?

COL.59 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE)

X REFUSED

14. If time permits, how long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area? (DO NOT READ

ANSWERS.)

COL.60 COL.61 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 15-30 MINUTES 2 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES 3 31-45 MINUTES 3 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES - 1 HOUR 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 15 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 5 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES X 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 45 MINUTES Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Y 5 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS

COL.62 1 DON'T KNOW

Thank you very much. _______________________________________ (TELEPHONE NUMBER CALLED)

Closing # 1 - Used for Mississippi Zip Code (39150) Calls

For additional information, contact your County Civil Defense Office

Closing # 2 - Used for Louisiana Zip Code (71357) Calls

For additional information, contact your Parish Office of Homeland Security and Emergency

Preparedness APPENDIXGTrafficManagementPlan GrandGulfNuclearStationG 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLANNUREG/CR 7002indicatesthattheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesshouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwereprovidedbyeachcounty.TheseplanswerereviewedandtheTCPsweremodeledaccordingly.G.1 TrafficControlPointsAsdiscussedinSect ion9,trafficcontrolpointsatintersections(whicharecontrolled)aremodeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapre timedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasatrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypewaschangedtoanactuatedsignalintheDYNE VIIsystem.TableK 2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumberforthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.IftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeingaTCP,thecontroltypeisindicatedas"TrafficControlPoint"inTableK 2.G.2 AccessControlPointsItisassumedthatACPswillbeestablishedwithin2hoursoftheadvisorytoevacuatetodiscouragethroughtravelersfromusingmajorthroughrouteswhichtraversetheEPZ.AsdiscussedinSection3.7,externaltrafficwasonlyconsideredontworouteswhichtraversetheEPZ-US65inTensasPa rishandUS61inClaiborneCounty-inthisanalysis.Thegenerationoftheseexternaltripsceasedat2hoursaftertheadvisorytoevacuateinthesimulation.AccordingtotheStates'emergencyplans,theaccesscontrolpointsinLouisianaandMississippiarelistedintheirrespectiveemergencyoperationscenters,andwillbemannedafterth eadvisorytoevacuatehasbeengiven.ItisrecommendedthatACPsontheeasternandwesternboundariesoftheEPZalongthetwoaforementionedroutesbethetoppriorityinassigningmanpowerandequipmentastheyarethemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ,whichwilltypicallycarrythehighestvolumeofthroughtraffic.FigureG 1mapstheTCPsandACPsidentifiedinthecounty/parishemergencyplans.TheseTCPsandACPsareconcentratedonroadwaysgivingaccesstotheEPZ.ThesesACPswouldbemannedduringevacuationbytrafficguideswhowoulddirectevacueesintheproperdirectionawayfromGGNSandfacilitat etheflowoftrafficthroughtheintersections.

GrandGulfNuclearStationG 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsandAccessControlPointsfortheGGNSSite APPENDIXHEvacuationRegions GrandGulfNuclearStationH 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1H EVACUATIONREGIONSThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH 1)andmapsofallEvacuationRegions.ThepercentagespresentedinTableH 1arebasedonthemethodologydiscussedinassumption5ofSection2.2andshowninFigure2 1.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhousehol dswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.

GrandGulfNuclearStationH 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableH 1.PercentofPAS/PAAPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegionRegionDescriptionPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112R012 MileRing100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R025 MileRing100%100%20%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R03FullEPZ100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesR04WSW,W,WNW,NW,NNW,N100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%N/ANNERefertoRegion01R05NE,ENE100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R06E100%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R07ESE,SE,SSE100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R08S100%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R09SSW100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%N/ASWRefertoRegion01Evacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto10MilesN/ANRefertoRegion04R10NNE100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%R11NE,ENE100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%R12E100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R13ESE100%100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R14SE100%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R15SSE100%20%20%100%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R16S100%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%R17SSW100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%R18SW100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%20%100%100%20%R19WSW100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%100%20%100%100%100%R20W100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%

GrandGulfNuclearStationH 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RegionDescriptionPAS/PAA12A2B3A3B4A4B5A5B6789101112R21WNW100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%100%R22NW,NNW100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%100%20%20%100%Evacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindto10MilesN/ANRefertoRegion02R23NNE100%100%20%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%100%R24NE,ENE100%100%100%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%100%R25E100%100%100%100%100%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R26ESE100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R27SE100%100%20%100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R28SSE100%100%20%100%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R29S100%100%20%100%20%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%R30SSW100%100%20%100%20%100%20%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%R31SW100%100%20%100%20%100%20%100%100%100%20%20%20%100%100%100%R32WSW,W100%100%20%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%R33WNW100%100%20%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%100%100%100%100%100%100%R34NW,NNW100%100%20%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%100%20%20%100%Evacuate2 MileRadiusandStagedDownwindto5MilesR355MileRing100%100%20%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R36WSW,W,WNW,NW,NNW,N100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%N/ANNERefertoRegion01R37NE,ENE100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R38E100%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R39ESE,SE,SSE100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R40S100%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R41SSW100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%N/ASWRefertoRegion01 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 1.RegionR01 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 2.RegionR02 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 3.RegionR03 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 4.RegionR04 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 5.RegionR05 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 6.RegionR06 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 7.RegionR07 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 9.RegionR09 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH10.RegionR10 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH11.RegionR11 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH12.RegionR12 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH13.RegionR13 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH14.RegionR14 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH15.RegionR15 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH16.RegionR16 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH17.RegionR17 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH18.RegionR18 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH19.RegionR19 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH20.RegionR20 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH21.RegionR21 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH22.RegionR22 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH23.RegionR23 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH24.RegionR24 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH25.RegionR25 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH26.RegionR26 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH27.RegionR27 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH28.RegionR28 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH29.RegionR29 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH30.RegionR30 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH31.RegionR31 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH32.RegionR32 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH33.RegionR33 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH34.RegionR34 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH35.RegionR35 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH36.RegionR36 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH37.RegionR37 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH38.RegionR38 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH39.RegionR39 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH40.RegionR40 GrandGulfNuclearStationH 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH41.RegionR41 APPENDIXJRepresentativeInputstoandOutputsfromtheDYNEVIISystem GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEMThisappendixpresentsdatainputtoandoutputfromtheDYNEVIISystem.TableJ 1providesthevolumeandqueuesforthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsinthestudyarea.Aresidualqueue,existingatthestartoftheREDsignalindication,indicatesthatthedemandcouldnotbeentirelyservedbytheGREENphase.Noresidualqueueindicatesthatthetrafficmovementisunder saturated(i.e.,notcongested)throughoutthedurationofevacuation.RefertoTableK 2andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachintersection.TableJ 2providessource(vehicleloading)anddestinationinformationforseveralroadwaysegments(links)intheanalysisnetwork.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.TableJ 3providesnetwork-widestatistics(averagetraveltime,averagespeedandnumberofvehicles)foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)foreachscenario.TableJ 4providesstatistics(averagespeedandtraveltime)forthemajorevacuationroutes-US61,US65andStateHwy605-foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario6conditions.AsdiscussedinTableJ 5providesthecumulativenumberofvehiclesdischargedandthecumulativepercentoftotalvehiclesdischargedforeachlinkexitingtheanalysisnetwork,foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario6conditions.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapsh owingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.FigureJ 1throughFigureJ 12plotthetripgenerationtimeversustheETEforeachofthe12Scenariosconsidered.ThedistancebetweenthetripgenerationandETEcurvesisthetraveltime.PlotsoftripgenerationversusETEarein dicativeoftheleveloftrafficcongestionduringevacuation.Forlowpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesareclosetogether,indicatingshorttraveltimesandminimaltrafficcongestion.Forhigherpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesarefartherapartindicatinglongertraveltimesandthepresenceoftrafficcongestion.AsseeninFigureJ 1throughFigureJ 12,thecurvesarealmostidenticaltoeachotherastheETEreflectsthemobilizationtime.DetailsregardingthecurvescanbefoundinSection7.3.

GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersectionsNodeLocationIntersection ControlApproach (UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)10US61&FloydRdACTUATED112,050021932091,2090TOTAL3,28313US61&InglesideKarnacFerryRdACTUATED141,88201461030121,2340TOTAL3,21918US61&ChinquepinStPRETIMED171,7870191,19601085601641340TOTAL3,17341US61&GrandGulfRdACTUATED1475910207510151,2420141,2610TOTAL3,1453US61&StateHwy18ACTUATED161,4190431,646010100TOTAL3,065406US61&RussumWestsideRdACTUATED271,1560261,8310407230TOTAL3,010380US61&OldColonyRdACTUATED381320191,6680201,2630TOTAL2,96324US61&GordonStationAnnexRdACTUATED231,7540356350251,1720TOTAL2,961 GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeLocationIntersection ControlApproach (UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)17US61&CarrolStACTUATED181,20407912601073301651,5260TOTAL2,889165US61&OrangeStACTUATED171,21201625601632680161,3260TOTAL2,862 GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInputLinkNumberVehiclesEnteringNetworkonthisLinkDirectionalPreferenceDestination NodesDestinationCapacity36NE80043,810440SE80403,81083471,6981018S80403,81083471,698159142SE81951,6982107NE80403,81081951,69881721,6982750NW82201,69833017W82201,69882411,69882301,6983657W82201,69882411,69882301,6984175S83471,69844640SE81951,698 GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)Scenario123456789101112Network WideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)1.11.21.11.31.21.61.91.21.31.24.91.1Network WideAverageSpeed(mph)56.650.653.947.851.736.931.552.346.250.712.256.4TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork11,40711,48510,25010,3278,13113,64113,72310,86610,9478,36514,24011,408 GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario6)ElapsedTime(hours)1234Route#Length(miles)Speed(mph)Travel Time (min)Speed TravelTimeSpeed Travel TimeSpeed Travel TimeUS61SBfromtheEPZboundary15.460.415.261.215.063.214.664.014.4US61NBfromtheEPZboundary10.653.311.952.612.153.511.953.511.9US65SBfromtheEPZboundary10.857.811.257.811.251.012.757.911.2StateHwy605SBtoUS65SB9.244.612.442.912.943.512.745.112.3 GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario6NetworkExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)1234CumulativeVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTimeCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTime88031,8562,2442,27620%20%20%20%751,4093,0093,6873,81435%33%34%34%9704440%0%0%0%17600000%0%0%0%1943638651,0151,0459%9%9%9%2454851,1441,3661,41412%13%12%12%2772195186496865%6%6%6%2914028831,0471,08210%10%10%10%3082666297267467%7%7%7%423812172672862%2%2%3%

GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario1)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario2)TripGenerationETE GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario3)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario4)TripGenerationETE GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario5)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario6)TripGenerationETE GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario8)0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario7)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario8)TripGenerationETE GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario10)0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario9)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario10)TripGenerationETE GrandGulfNuclearStationJ 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Evening,Good,SpecialEvent (Scenario11)TripGenerationETE 0%20%

40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario12)TripGenerationETE GrandGulfNuclearStationK 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORKAsdiscussedinSection1.3,alink nodeanalysisnetworkwasconstructedtomodeltheroadwaynetworkwithinthestudyarea.FigureK 1providesanoverviewofthelink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thefigurehasbeendividedupinto24moredetailedfigures(FigureK 2throughFigureK 5)whichshoweachofthelinksandnodesinthenetwork.TheanalysisnetworkwascalibratedusingtheobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveyconductedinApril2012.TableK 1liststhecharacteristicsofeachroadwaysectionmodeledintheETEanalysis.Eachlinkisidentifiedbyitsroadnameandtheupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers.ThegeographiclocationofeachlinkcanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovidedinTableK 1.TheroadwaytypeidentifiedinTableK 1isbasedonthefollowingcriteria: Minorarterial:2ormorelanesineachdirection Collector:singlelaneineachdirection Localroadways:singlelaneineachdirection,localroadswithlowfreeflowspeedsTheterm,"No.ofLanes"inTableK 1identifiesthenumberoflanesthatextendthroughoutthelengthofthelink.Manylinkshaveadditionallanesontheimmediateapproachtoanintersection(turnpockets);thesehav ebeenrecordedandenteredintotheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.AsdiscussedinSection1.3,lanewidthandshoulderwidthwerenotphysicallymeasuredduringtheroadsurvey.Rather,estimatesofthesemeasureswerebasedonvisualobservationsandrecordedimages.TableK 2identifieseac hnodeinthenetworkthatiscontrolledandthetypeofcontrol(stopsign,yieldsign,pre timedsignal,actuatedsignal,trafficcontrolpoint)atthatnode.UncontrollednodesarenotincludedinTableK 2.Thelocationofeachnodecanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovided.

GrandGulfNuclearStationK 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 1.GrandGulfLink NodeAnalysisNetwork GrandGulfNuclearStationK 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristicsLink#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber11273STATEHWY605COLLECTOR3744 112 417005010228US61MINORARTERIAL8059 212 4190070 732391US61MINORARTERIAL6899 212 4190070 34316US61MINORARTERIAL2184 112 4170040195343US61MINORARTERIAL2040 112 41700401963101STATEHWY18COLLECTOR4940 112 317005519745US61MINORARTERIAL6190 212 4190060 3EXITLINK48004US61MINORARTERIAL6237 212 4190060 1854US61MINORARTERIAL6190 212 4190060 3956US61MINORARTERIAL7774 212 4190070 31065US61MINORARTERIAL7775 212 4190070 31167US61MINORARTERIAL7603 212 4190070 31276US61MINORARTERIAL7603 212 4190070 3137391US61MINORARTERIAL2521 212 4190070 31482US61MINORARTERIAL8059 212 4190070 7158394US61MINORARTERIAL3163 212 4190070 716910US61MINORARTERIAL2141 212 4175070 717944US61MINORARTERIAL9076 212 4190070 718109US61MINORARTERIAL2141 212 4190070 7191011US61MINORARTERIAL3362 212 4190070 7201110US61MINORARTERIAL3364 212 4175070 7211112US61MINORARTERIAL7623 212 419007013221211US61MINORARTERIAL7623 212 419007013 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber231213US61MINORARTERIAL4085 212 417507013241312US61MINORARTERIAL4085 212 419007013251314US61MINORARTERIAL4174 212 419007013261413US61MINORARTERIAL4174 212 417507013271441US61MINORARTERIAL3912 212 417507013281541US61MINORARTERIAL9226 212 417507013291542US61MINORARTERIAL3304 112 41700701330163US61MINORARTERIAL2184 112 4175040193116165US61MINORARTERIAL382 212 417504519321718US61MINORARTERIAL1049 212 4175045193317165US61MINORARTERIAL1114 212 417504519341817US61MINORARTERIAL1049 212 417504519351819US61MINORARTERIAL3461 212 419004519361918US61MINORARTERIAL3461 212 4175045193719110STATEHWY547MINORARTERIAL2705 112 4175040193819380US61MINORARTERIAL770 112 417504519392021OFF RAMPFROMUS61TONATCHEZTRACEHWYRAMP1209 112 015753519402022US61MINORARTERIAL1193 112 0170055194120380US61MINORARTERIAL7492 112 417504519422189NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL1385 112 017006019432220US61MINORARTERIAL1193 112 017005519442223US61MINORARTERIAL2490 112 017005519452322US61MINORARTERIAL2490 112 017005519462324US61MINORARTERIAL3075 112 017507019 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber472423US61MINORARTERIAL3075 112 017007019482425US61MINORARTERIAL4920 212 419007019492524US61MINORARTERIAL4939 212 417507019502526US61MINORARTERIAL2548 212 419007019512625US61MINORARTERIAL2548 212 4190070195226406US61MINORARTERIAL4544 212 417507023532728US61MINORARTERIAL2697 212 0190070235427406US61MINORARTERIAL901 212 417507023552827US61MINORARTERIAL2689 212 019007023562829US61MINORARTERIAL3636 212 019007022572928US61MINORARTERIAL3637 212 019007022582930US61MINORARTERIAL1474 212 019007022593029US61MINORARTERIAL1473 212 019007022603031US61MINORARTERIAL3890 212 019007022613130US61MINORARTERIAL3890 212 019007022623132US61MINORARTERIAL4892 212 019007022633231US61MINORARTERIAL4891 212 019007022643233US61MINORARTERIAL1802 212 419007022653332US61MINORARTERIAL1803 212 419007022663335US61MINORARTERIAL1308 212 4190070226734396ONRAMPFROMSR55TOUS61SOUTHRAMP938 112 4157535226834398ONRAMPFROMSTATEHWY552TOUS61NRAMP843 112 417005522693533US61MINORARTERIAL1308 212 419007022 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber7035396US61MINORARTERIAL851 212 419007022713637US61MINORARTERIAL2729 212 4190070227236396US61MINORARTERIAL1993 212 419007022733736US61MINORARTERIAL2729 212 419007022743738STATEHWY552COLLECTOR1599 112 017006022753740US61MINORARTERIAL4356 212 419007022763839STATEHWY552COLLECTOR1292 112 0170060227739338STATEHWY552COLLECTOR991 112 017006022784037US61MINORARTERIAL4356 212 419007022EXITLINK408040US61MINORARTERIAL2057 212 419007022794114US61MINORARTERIAL3912 212 419007013804115US61MINORARTERIAL9226 212 419007013814215US61MINORARTERIAL3304 112 417007013824243US61MINORARTERIAL3418 112 41700601383433US61MINORARTERIAL2040 112 417504019844342US61MINORARTERIAL3419 112 41700601385449US61MINORARTERIAL9076 212 4190070 7864445US61MINORARTERIAL8633 212 4190070 7874544US61MINORARTERIAL8633 212 4190070 78845394US61MINORARTERIAL2261 212 4190070 7894734STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL2535 212 0190055229048395STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL1137 212 0190055229148399ONRAMPTONATCHEZTRACEHWYFROMSTATEHWY552RAMP1044 112 413503022 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber925048OFF RAMPFROMNATCHEZTRACEHWYTOSTATEHWY552RAMP1239 112 4175030229350399NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL226 112 417006022945152NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2112 112 017006022955253NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL8795 112 017006022965354NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2129 112 017006022975455NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2875 112 017006022EXITLINK558055NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL1817 112 017006022985648STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL2045 212 017505522995756STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL2078 212 0190055221005857STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL1764 212 0190055221015958STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL1654 212 0190055221026059STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL1234 212 0190055221036160STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL815 212 0190055221046261STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL1536 212 0190055221056362STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL829 212 0190055221066463STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL4390 212 0190055221076564STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL1126 212 0190055221086665STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL2403 212 0190055221096766STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL2362 212 0190055211106867STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL1763 212 0190055211116968STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL4077 212 0170040211127069STATEHWY552BYPASSMINORARTERIAL1108 212 4170040211137175STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL3265 112 417004017 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber1147276STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL2461 112 4170040171157371STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL3953 112 4157535171167472RUSSUMWESTSIDERDLOCALROADWAY2484 112 0135030171177572STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL3193 112 4170040171187677STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL4734 112 4170040171197778STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL1870 112 0157535171207869STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL2546 112 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33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber1399596NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2366 112 0170060221409697NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL1491 112 0170060221419798NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2850 112 0170060221429899NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL1066 112 01700602214399100NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL1764 112 01700602214410050NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL1907 112 0170060221451013STATEHWY18COLLECTOR4940 112 317505519146101102STATEHWY18LOCALROADWAY1165 112 317005519147102103ONRAMPFROMSTATEHWY18TONATCHEZTRACENANDSRAMP821 112 411252519148102401STATEHWY18COLLECTOR1306 112 317005519149103104ONRAMPFROMSTATEHWY18TONATCHEZTRACENANDSRAMP620 112 417002519150104111NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2313 112 317006019151104128NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL3056 112 417006019152105106STATEHWY18COLLECTOR2809 112 317006019153106133STATEHWY18COLLECTOR5446 112 31700601915410717CARROLLSTLOCALROADWAY725 110 017503519155107162VINESTLOCALROADWAY726 110 01575351915610818CHINQUEPINSTLOCALROADWAY741 110 017503519157108107VINESTLOCALROADWAY1043 110 015753519158109108CHINQUEPINSTLOCALROADWAY1828 110 015753519159109110BRIDEWELLLNLOCALROADWAY3384 110 017503519160110409STATEHWY547COLLECTOR734 112 417004019 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber161111112NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2426 112 417006013162112113NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL4052 112 417006013163113114NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2644 112 417006013164114115NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL1849 112 417006013165115116NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2242 112 417006013166116117NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL5003 112 417006013167117118NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL3383 112 417006014168118119NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL8890 112 417006014169119120NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL5546 112 417006014170120121NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL3880 112 417006014171121122NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL3485 112 417006014172122123NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL3904 112 417006014173123124NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL8845 112 417006014174124125NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL4513 112 4170060 8175125126NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2179 112 4170060 8176126127NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL3489 112 4170060 9EXITLINK1278127NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2197 112 4170060 9177128129NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2684 112 417006019178129130NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2283 112 417006019179130131NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL3978 112 417006019180131132NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL2539 112 41700601918113221NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL5605 112 017006019182133134STATEHWY18COLLECTOR2898 112 317006020183134135STATEHWY18COLLECTOR4605 112 317006020 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber184135136STATEHWY18COLLECTOR1112 112 317005520185136137STATEHWY18COLLECTOR2360 112 317006020186137138STATEHWY18COLLECTOR1622 112 317006020187138205STATEHWY18COLLECTOR5022 112 317006020188139140STATEHWY18COLLECTOR2702 112 317005520189140141STATEHWY18COLLECTOR2607 112 317006020190141142STATEHWY18COLLECTOR2478 112 317006020191142143STATEHWY18COLLECTOR4385 112 317006014192143144STATEHWY18COLLECTOR1553 112 317006014193144145STATEHWY18COLLECTOR6660 112 317006015194145172STATEHWY18COLLECTOR1288 112 31700601519514613INGLESIDEKARNALFERRYRDLOCALROADWAY2984 1801750301319614741GRANDGULFRDCOLLECTOR3743 112 017504013197148147GRANDGULFRDCOLLECTOR8601 112 017005013198149148GRANDGULFRDCOLLECTOR5580 112 017005013199150153GRANDGULFRDCOLLECTOR2470 112 017005012200151150GRANDGULFRDCOLLECTOR3218 112 017005012201152151GRANDGULFRDCOLLECTOR6035 112 017004012202153149GRANDGULFRDCOLLECTOR3817 112 017005013203154146INGLESIDEKARNALFERRYRDLOCALROADWAY2702 18013503013204155154INGLESIDEKARNALFERRYRDLOCALROADWAY2923 18013503013205156155INGLESIDEKARNALFERRYRDLOCALROADWAY4049 18013503013206157156INGLESIDEKARNALFERRYRDLOCALROADWAY1763 18013503013207158157INGLESIDEKARNALFERRYRDLOCALROADWAY1554 18013503013208159158YCAMPRDLOCALROADWAY1974 18013503013 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber209160159YCAMPRDLOCALROADWAY5597 18013503013210161160BACKGRANDGULFROADLOCALROADWAY2141 18013503013211162165FAIRSTLOCALROADWAY819 112 017503519212163165ORANGESTLOCALROADWAY572 110 01750351921316418CHINQUEPINSTLOCALROADWAY693 112 01750351921416479MAINSTLOCALROADWAY1029 112 41350301921516516US61MINORARTERIAL382 112 41700451921616517US61MINORARTERIAL1114 212 417504519217166145RAMOLARDLOCALROADWAY1070 110 017005515218167166RAMOLARDLOCALROADWAY1152 110 017005515219168167RAMOLARDLOCALROADWAY4796 110 017005514220169168RAMOLARDLOCALROADWAY1666 110 017005514221170169RAMOLARDLOCALROADWAY2078 110 017005514222171170RAMOLARDLOCALROADWAY4751 110 017005514223171206VALLEYOFTHEMOONRDLOCALROADWAY4979 112 017005514EXITLINK1728172STATEHWY18COLLECTOR1275 112 317006015224173311STATEHWY547COLLECTOR1274 112 417004019225174175STATEHWY547COLLECTOR2938 112 417005519226175176STATEHWY547COLLECTOR4026 112 417505519227176177STATEHWY547COLLECTOR7973 112 417005519228177178STATEHWY547COLLECTOR4100 112 417005519229178179STATEHWY547COLLECTOR2945 112 417005520230179180STATEHWY547COLLECTOR3264 112 417005520231180181STATEHWY547COLLECTOR1405 112 417004520 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber232181182STATEHWY547COLLECTOR665 112 411252520233182191STATEHWY547COLLECTOR533 112 411252520234183182PATHISONSTLOCALROADWAY1097 110 011252520235184183PATTISONHERMANVILLERDLOCALROADWAY1061 112 011252520236185184PATTISONHERMANVILLERDLOCALROADWAY2318 112 017004020237186185PATTISONHERMANVILLERDLOCALROADWAY3791 112 017006020238187186PATTISONHERMANVILLERDLOCALROADWAY3664 112 017006020239188187PATTISONHERMANVILLERDLOCALROADWAY3306 112 017006020240189188PATTISONHERMANVILLERDLOCALROADWAY2495 112 017006020241190189PATTISONHERMANVILLERDLOCALROADWAY1375 112 017006020242191192STATEHWY547COLLECTOR519 112 411252520243192193STATEHWY547COLLECTOR1395 112 417004020244193194STATEHWY547COLLECTOR1926 112 417005524245194195STATEHWY547COLLECTOR3834 112 417005524EXITLINK1958195STATEHWY547LOCALROADWAY1936 112 417005524246196198SAWMILLRDLOCALROADWAY2413 110 017004520247196202SAWMILLRDLOCALROADWAY2052 110 017004520248197196LOCALROADWAYCOLLECTOR1150 112 411252520249198199SAWMILLRDLOCALROADWAY3308 110 017005520250199200SAWMILLRDLOCALROADWAY1612 110 017004520251200201SAWMILLRDLOCALROADWAY1891 110 017005520252201190SAWMILLRDLOCALROADWAY5057 110 017006020253202203SAWMILLRDLOCALROADWAY8907 110 017005520254203204SAWMILLRDLOCALROADWAY1248 110 017005520 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber255204140SAWMILLRDLOCALROADWAY862 110 017004020256205139STATEHWY18COLLECTOR3140 112 317006020257206139VALLEYOFTHEMOONRDLOCALROADWAY6598 112 01700552025820741OLDPORTGIBSONRDCOLLECTOR2194 110 017504013259208207OLDPORTGIBSONRDCOLLECTOR1924 110 017004013260209208OLDPORTGIBSONRDCOLLECTOR6481 110 017005013261210209OLDPORTGIBSONRDCOLLECTOR3201 110 017004013262211210OLDPORTGIBSONRDCOLLECTOR6710 110 017004014263212211OLDPORTGIBSONRDCOLLECTOR3282 110 017004014264213212OLDPORTGIBSONRDCOLLECTOR1953 110 017004014265213214OLDUS61COLLECTOR2949 112 017004014266214215OLDUS61COLLECTOR4041 112 017004014267215216OLDUS61COLLECTOR6023 112 0170040 8268216217FLOYDRDLOCALROADWAY1170 180170040 8269217218FLOYDRDLOCALROADWAY3285 180170040 8270218219FLOYDRDLOCALROADWAY3341 180170040 827121910FLOYDRDLOCALROADWAY4539 180175040 7272220223US65MINORARTERIAL9419 112 4170060 2EXITLINK2208220US65MINORARTERIAL4555 112 4170065 2273221233US65MINORARTERIAL9812 112 4170060 5274221234US65MINORARTERIAL6357 112 4170060 5275222223US65MINORARTERIAL6066 112 4170060 2276222234US65MINORARTERIAL6130 112 4170060 2277223220US65MINORARTERIAL9419 112 4170060 2 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber278223222US65MINORARTERIAL6066 112 4170060 2279224225US65MINORARTERIAL3332 112 4175045 5280224233US65MINORARTERIAL9729 112 4170060 5281225224US65MINORARTERIAL3332 112 4170045 5282225232US65MINORARTERIAL4576 112 4170045 5283225238STATEHWY575COLLECTOR4650 112 6170060 5284226227US65MINORARTERIAL1873 112 417006010285226231US65MINORARTERIAL8289 112 417006010286227226US65MINORARTERIAL1873 112 417006010287227235US65MINORARTERIAL7491 112 417006010288228229US65MINORARTERIAL1356 112 417006016289228236US65MINORARTERIAL7519 112 417006016290229228US65MINORARTERIAL1356 112 417006016291229230US65MINORARTERIAL5613 112 417006016292230229US65MINORARTERIAL5613 112 417006016EXITLINK2308230US65MINORARTERIAL3073 112 417006016293231226US65MINORARTERIAL8289 112 417006010294231232US65MINORARTERIAL9808 112 417006010295232225US65MINORARTERIAL4576 112 4175045 5296232231US65MINORARTERIAL9808 112 417006010297233221US65MINORARTERIAL9812 112 4170060 5298233224US65MINORARTERIAL9729 112 4170060 5299234221US65MINORARTERIAL6357 112 4170060 5300234222US65MINORARTERIAL6130 112 4170060 2 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber301235227US65MINORARTERIAL7492 112 417006010302235290US65MINORARTERIAL5213 112 417006010303236228US65MINORARTERIAL7518 112 417006016304236290US65MINORARTERIAL3296 112 417006016305237410STATEHWY575COLLECTOR4389 112 6175035 5306238239STATEHWY575COLLECTOR2900 112 6170050 5307239240STATEHWY575COLLECTOR7962 112 6170060 5308240241STATEHWY575COLLECTOR4159 112 6170060 5EXITLINK2418241STATEHWY575COLLECTOR2663 112 6170040 5309242243STATEHWY605LOCALROADWAY1581 112 4170055 5310242244STATEHWY605LOCALROADWAY9113 110 0170050 5311243221STATEHWY888LOCALROADWAY7923 112 0170040 5312244222STATEHWY605LOCALROADWAY8164 110 0170050 2313245242STATEHWY608COLLECTOR2924 112 4170050 6314246245STATEHWY608COLLECTOR4583 112 4170050 6315247246STATEHWY608COLLECTOR6201 112 4157535 6316248247STATEHWY608COLLECTOR3901 112 4157535 6317249248STATEHWY608COLLECTOR2421 112 4157535 6318250249STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY2505 112 4170050 6319251250STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY2676 112 4170050 6320252251STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY4040 112 4170050 6321253252STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY3821 112 4170050 6322254253STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY7636 112 4170050 6323254255STATEHWY887LOCALROADWAY3460 112 4170040 5 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber324255256STATEHWY887LOCALROADWAY1467 112 4112525 5325256237STATEHWY605LOCALROADWAY1514 112 4175030 5326257258STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY7031 18017005511327258259STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY3182 18015753511328259260STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY1701 1809002011329260261STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY7668 18015753511330261262STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY5268 18017005511331262263STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY4588 18017005511332263264STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY4835 18017005511333264265STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY4236 18017005511334265266STATEHWY608LOCALROADWAY5369 18017005511335266274STATEHWY605COLLECTOR7465 112 417005010336266275STATEHWY605COLLECTOR4210 112 417005511337267243STATEHWY605COLLECTOR2880 112 4170055 5338268267STATEHWY605COLLECTOR3079 112 4170055 5339269256STATEHWY605COLLECTOR5819 112 4170040 5340269268STATEHWY605COLLECTOR3346 112 4170055 5341270221STATEHWY888LOCALROADWAY3247 112 0170040 5342271270STATEHWY888LOCALROADWAY6532 112 0170040 2343272271STATEHWY888LOCALROADWAY6255 112 0170040 2344273227STATEHWY607LOCALROADWAY920 112 4157535103452741STATEHWY605COLLECTOR6914 112 417005010346275277STATEHWY605COLLECTOR4928 112 417005510347276237STATEHWY605COLLECTOR1893 112 4175030 5348277276STATEHWY605COLLECTOR3284 112 4170040 5 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber349278279STATEHWY604COLLECTOR1646 112 417004017350279280STATEHWY604COLLECTOR2486 112 417004517351280281STATEHWY604COLLECTOR706 112 415753517352281283STATEHWY605COLLECTOR615 112 417004517353282281STATEHWY605COLLECTOR1174 112 417005517354283310STATEHWY605COLLECTOR4906 112 417004516355284291STATEHWY128COLLECTOR6175 112 413503016356285278STATEHWY604COLLECTOR2380 112 417004017357286273STATEHWY605COLLECTOR7606 112 417005010358286287STATEHWY605COLLECTOR1577 112 417005010359287288STATEHWY605COLLECTOR3201 112 417005010360288289STATEHWY605COLLECTOR7087 112 417006016361289282STATEHWY605COLLECTOR8851 112 417005516362290235US65MINORARTERIAL5213 112 417006010363290236US65MINORARTERIAL3297 112 417006016364291292STATEHWY128COLLECTOR6472 112 417004516365292228STATEHWY128COLLECTOR5289 112 4170045163662931STATEHWY604COLLECTOR2545 112 017005510367294295STATEHWY604COLLECTOR3009 112 417004011368294298STATEHWY604COLLECTOR3252 112 417005511369295296STATEHWY604COLLECTOR4181 112 417005511370296297STATEHWY604COLLECTOR3905 112 017005511371297293STATEHWY604COLLECTOR5579 112 417004010372298299STATEHWY604COLLECTOR3203 112 417004011373299300STATEHWY604COLLECTOR2910 112 417004511 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber374300301STATEHWY604COLLECTOR7930 112 417005517375301285STATEHWY604COLLECTOR5228 112 417005517376302303STATEHWY606LOCALROADWAY6431 112 017004011377303304STATEHWY606LOCALROADWAY7926 112 017004017378304305STATEHWY606LOCALROADWAY2428 112 011252517379305278STATEHWY606LOCALROADWAY1078 112 017004017380306304STATEHWY606LOCALROADWAY4622 112 017004017381307306STATEHWY606LOCALROADWAY5485 112 017004016382308307STATEHWY606LOCALROADWAY4021 112 017004010383309308STATEHWY606LOCALROADWAY2393 112 017004010384310284STATEHWY605COLLECTOR2030 112 417003016385311174STATEHWY547COLLECTOR4117 112 417005519386312311GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY580 112 017004019387313312GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY2444 112 017004019388314313GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY1496 112 017004019389315314GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY1448 112 017004019390316315GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY2001 112 017004019391317316GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY2068 112 017004019392318317GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY1268 112 017004019393319318GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY1018 112 017004019394320319GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY1905 112 017004019395321320GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY807 112 017004019396321353GORDONSTATIONANNEXCOLLECTOR518 112 013503019397322321GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY4465 112 017004019398323322GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY2098 112 017004019 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber399323324GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY2349 112 017004023400324325GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY2208 112 017004023401325326GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY2312 112 017004023423346347STATEHWY552COLLECTOR2626 112 017006023EXITLINK3478347STATEHWY552COLLECTOR1740 112 017006023424348349WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY2407 112 017005023425349350WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY4088 112 017005023426350351WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY2469 112 01700502342735127WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY1117 112 017005023428352323LOCALROADLOCALROADWAY1969 112 011252519429353354GORDONSTATIONANNEXCOLLECTOR1235 112 011252519430354355GORDONSTATIONANNEXCOLLECTOR990 112 013503019431355356GORDONSTATIONANNEXCOLLECTOR3789 112 01125251943235624GORDONSTATIONANNEXCOLLECTOR965 112 017503019433357358TILLMANPATTISONRDLOCALROADWAY4298 110 017004024434358182TILLMANPATTISONRDLOCALROADWAY3054 110 011252520435359357TILLMANPATTISONRDLOCALROADWAY4418 110 017004024436360359TILLMANPATTISONRDLOCALROADWAY3743 110 017004023437361360TILLMANRDLOCALROADWAY3466 18017004523438362361TILLMANRDLOCALROADWAY3118 18017004523439363362TILLMANRDLOCALROADWAY1979 18017004523440364365TILLMANRDLOCALROADWAY2708 112 017005519441365370TILLMANRDLOCALROADWAY3503 112 017005519442366176TILLMANRDLOCALROADWAY1151 112 017505519 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber443367363TILLMANRDLOCALROADWAY2677 18017004523444367364TILLMANRDLOCALROADWAY3402 112 017005519445368367PINEGROVERDLOCALROADWAY2372 112 017004023446369366TILLMANRDLOCALROADWAY3306 112 017005519447370369TILLMANRDLOCALROADWAY2644 112 01700551944837174RUSSUMWESTSIDERDLOCALROADWAY2294 112 013503017449372371RUSSUMWESTSIDERDLOCALROADWAY2972 112 013503018450373372RUSSUMWESTSIDERDLOCALROADWAY2856 112 013503018451374373RUSSUMWESTSIDERDLOCALROADWAY2423 112 013503018452375374RUSSUMWESTSIDERDLOCALROADWAY3849 112 01350301845337682BESSIEWEATHERRDLOCALROADWAY3868 112 017004019454377376BESSIEWEATHERRDLOCALROADWAY2775 112 017004018455378377BESSIEWEATHERRDLOCALROADWAY3614 112 017004018456379378BESSIEWEATHERRDLOCALROADWAY2627 112 01700401845738019US61MINORARTERIAL770 112 41700451945838020US61MINORARTERIAL7492 112 417005519459381380OLDCOLONYRDLOCALROADWAY1819 112 417504019460382381OLDCOLONYRDLOCALROADWAY1594 112 417004019461383382SUNSETDRLOCALROADWAY1608 112 417004019402326327GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY1326 112 017004023403327328GORDONSTATIONROADLOCALROADWAY792 112 017004023404328329WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY2459 112 017005023405328348WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY3960 112 017005023406329330WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY1703 112 017005023407330331WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY2109 112 017005023 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber408331332WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY4062 112 017005023409332333WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY2069 112 017005023410333334WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY1253 112 017005023411334335WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY2231 112 017005023412335336WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY7684 112 017005023413336337WOODVINERDLOCALROADWAY2021 112 017005023414337346STATEHWY552COLLECTOR915 112 017006023415338339STATEHWY552COLLECTOR1029 112 017006022416339340STATEHWY552COLLECTOR2269 112 017006022417340341STATEHWY552COLLECTOR3373 112 017006022418341342STATEHWY552COLLECTOR2110 112 017006022419342343STATEHWY552COLLECTOR1433 112 017006023420343344STATEHWY552COLLECTOR1600 112 017006023421344345STATEHWY552COLLECTOR1504 112 017006023422345337STATEHWY552COLLECTOR1167 112 017006023462384383SUNSETDRLOCALROADWAY3183 112 417004019463385389JEFFDAVISRDLOCALROADWAY4190 112 0170040 3464386385JEFFDAVISRDLOCALROADWAY8497 112 0170040 4465387386JEFFDAVISRDLOCALROADWAY4493 112 0170040 4466387392DOGWOODRDCOLLECTOR4681 180112525 8467388387JEFFDAVISRDLOCALROADWAY3010 112 0170040 8468389390JEFFDAVISRDLOCALROADWAY3259 112 0170040 3469390391JEFFDAVISRDLOCALROADWAY2489 112 0170040 34703912US61MINORARTERIAL6899 212 4190070 34713917US61MINORARTERIAL2521 212 4190070 3 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber472392393DOGWOODRDCOLLECTOR2034 180112525 7473393394DOGWOODRDCOLLECTOR2747 180112525 74743948US61MINORARTERIAL3163 212 4190070 747539445US61MINORARTERIAL2261 212 4190070 747639547STATEHWY552MINORARTERIAL1568 212 01900552247739551ONRAMPTONATCHEZTRACEHWYFROMSTATEHWY552RAMP1499 112 41350302247839635US61MINORARTERIAL851 212 41900702247939636US61MINORARTERIAL2004 212 41900702248039735ONRAMPFROMSTATEHWY552TOUS61NRAMP880 112 413503022481398397ONRAMPFROMSTATEHWY552TOUS61NRAMP359 112 41350302248239951NATCHEZTRACEHWYMINORARTERIAL891 112 417006022483401105STATEHWY18COLLECTOR5525 112 31700601948440270ASUDRCOLLECTOR745 112 49002021485403171RAMOLARDCOLLECTOR1468 112 413503014486404163MAINSTLOCALROADWAY734 110 015753519487405404WALNUTSTLOCALROADWAY207 112 41350301948840626US61MINORARTERIAL4544 212 41900702348940627US61MINORARTERIAL901 212 419007023490407406RUSSUMWESTSIDERDLOCALROADWAY8227 110 01750201849140863OLDMS 552UNDEFINED3003 112 013503022492409173STATEHWY547COLLECTOR1531 112 417004019493410225STATEHWY575COLLECTOR2478 112 6175035 5 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber49480044US61MINORARTERIAL6237 212 4190060 1495804040US61MINORARTERIAL2057 212 4190070224968220220US65MINORARTERIAL4555 112 4170065 2 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlledNodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber12013744914319 Stop1032096303898340 TCPActuated19102114139933315 TCPActuated7112113150931099 TCPUncontrolled7132106357921896 TCPActuated13172095149894845Actuated19182094796893858 Pretimed19212090472883938 Stop19242091104876155 TCPActuated19272085625864718 Stop23412103610914405 TCPActuated13482071393853514 TCPActuated22512071494852993 Stop22632060800856323 Stop22692048307865146 Stop21712048535882047 Stop17722049842875894 Stop17782048269867692 TCPUncontrolled17792094489895078Actuated19822089236893982 Stop191042103239897826 Stop191062111825897206 TCPUncontrolled191072095825894584 Stop191082095489893596 Stop191102096153889637 TCPActuated191392136993895439 Stop201402139686895654 Stop201452151998907412 Stop151622096041895277 Stop191632094970896091 Yield191652095510895900Actuated191762108410882013 TCPActuated191822124352869467 Stop201832125206870156 Stop201962140275882645 Stop202042139679894792 Stop20 GrandGulfNuclearStationK 50KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber2122122135922903 TCPUncontrolled142162124428937144 Stop82212015470957963 Stop52222019410969812 Stop22252010703935639Actuated52272010359911148 Stop102282002501888985 Stop162372017300937544Actuated52422022343952786 Stop62432020883952178 Yield52562016800938973 Stop52662023548924837 Stop112732011148911622 Stop102782024707890099 Stop172812022021886546 Stop172842017231880751 Stop163042023501893038 Stop173112099119887706 Stop193212097804873830 Yield193232099959867870 Stop193282097801859775 Stop233372089713839855 Stop233602115392857385 Stop233672111622867518 Stop233802093374889873 TCPActuated193872120489960927 Yield83912108114972548 Stop33942112842956154 Stop73992072116853631 Stop224042094618895447Actuated194062086170865436 TCPActuated234092096773889244 TCPUncontrolled191 CoordinatesareintheNorthAmericanDatumof1983StatePlaneMississippiWest APPENDIXLPAS/PAABoundaries GrandGulfNuclearStationL 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1L. PAS/PAABOUNDARIESPAS/PAA1County:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:ItisboundedbytheMississippiRiverontheeast,theBayouPierreand3 mileradiusonthesouth,localroadsontheeastandtheBigBlackRiveronthenorth.PAS/PAA2ACounty:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:BigBlackRiveronthenorth,localroadsontheeast,theBayouPierreonthesouthandUS61ontheeast.PAS/PAA2BCounty:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:JusteastofArea2AwithUS61servingasthewesternboundary,BayouPierreasitssouthernboundary,andthe10 mileradiusasitseasternboundary.TheBigBlackRiveristothenorthofthearea.PAS/PAA3ACounty:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareabetweenBayouPierreandLittleBayouPierrewestoftheNatchezTraceParkway.PAS/PAA3BCounty:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareabetweenBayouPierreandLittleBayouPierreeastoftheNatchezTraceParkway.PAS/PAA4ACounty:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareabetweenLittleBayouPierreandWidowsCreeksouthandeastofBayouPierretotheNatchezTraceParkway,includingthetownofPortGibson.PAS/PAA4BCounty:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareabetweenLittleBayouPierre,southandeastoftheNatchezTraceParkwayandnorthofGordonStationRoad.PAS/PAA5ACounty:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareabetweenBayouPierreandRussum WestsideRoadeasttoWidowsCreek.

GrandGulfNuclearStationL 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PAS/PAA5BCounty:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareasouthoftheRussum WestsideRoadfromtheFerryRoadeasttoGordonStationRoad.PAS/PAA6County:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:AllofAlcornStateUniversity.PAS/PAA7County:ClaiborneDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:theareanorthoftheBigBlackRiverandeastoftheMississippiRiver.PAS/PAA8Parish:TensasDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareaboundedonthenorthbytheEPZboundary,bytheareajustwestandsouthofLakeJosephandbytheMississippiRiverontheeast.PAS/PAA9Parish:TensasDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareajustwestofArea8andincludesthetownofNewellton.ItisboundedonthewestbyUS65andonthenorthbytheEPZboundary.PAS/PAA10Parish:TensasDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareaboundedontheeastandsouthbytheMississippiRiverandonthesouthandwestbythewesternportionofLakeBruin.PAS/PAA11Parish:TensasDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareaboundedbyLakeBruinasitsnorthernboundary,theMississippiRivertotheeastandtheEPZboundarytothesouthandwest.PAS/PAA12Parish:TensasDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheareaboundedbyYacatanLaketothewest,theMississippiRivertotheeast,includesMiddleGroundIsland.

APPENDIXMEvacuationSensitivityStudies GrandGulfNuclearStationM 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIESThisappendixpresentstheresultsofaseriesofsensitivityanalyses.TheseanalysesaredesignedtoidentifythesensitivityoftheETEtochangesinsomebaseevacuationconditions.M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimesAsensitivitystudywasperformedtodeterminewhetherchangesintheestimatedtripgenerationtimehaveaneffectontheETEfortheentireEPZ.Specifically,ifthetailofthemobilizationdistributionweretruncated(i.e.,ifthosewhorespondedmostslowlytotheAdvisorytoEvacuate,couldbepersuadedtorespondmuchmorerapidly),howwouldtheETEbeaffected?ThecaseconsideredwasScenario6,Region3;awinter,midweek,midday,goodweatherevacuationoftheentireEPZ.TableM 1presentstheresultsofthisstudy.TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudyTripGenerationPeriodEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile2Hours15Minutes2:052:403Hours15Minutes2:153:254Hours45Minutes(Base)2:154:55AsdiscussedinSection7.3,thelackofcongestionwithintheEPZleadstothe100percentileETEcloselyfollowingthetripgenerationtime.ThustheETEinTableM 1areequaltothetripgenerationtimeplustraveltime(10 20minutes).The90 thpercentileETEarelesssensitivetotruncatingthetailofthemobilizationtimedistribution,sincethemobilizationtimeofthebulkofevacueesisunchanged.

GrandGulfNuclearStationM 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocateAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesinthepercentageofpeoplewhodecidetorelocatefromtheShadowRegion.ThecaseconsideredwasScenario6,Region3;awinter,midweek,midday,go odweatherevacuationfortheentireEPZ.ThemovementofpeopleintheShadowRegionhasthepotentialtoimpedevehiclesevacuatingfromanEvacuationRegionwithintheEPZ.RefertoSections3.2and7.1foradditionalinformationonpopulationwithintheshadowregion.TableM 2presentstheevacuationtimeestimatesforeachofthecasesconsidered.TheresultsshowthattheETEisnotimpactedbyshadowevacuationfrom0%to60%.Thisindicatesthatthecongestionwithintheshadowarea(notedinSection7)doesnothinderevacuationfromtheEPZ,evenwhenthemajorityoftheshadowpopulationvoluntarilyevacuate.TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudyPercentShadowEvacuationEvacuatingShadowVehiclesEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile002:154:55153552:154:5520(Base)4732:154:55601,4192:154:55 GrandGulfNuclearStationM 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulationAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesintheresidentpopulationwithinthestudyarea(EPZplusShadowRegion).Aspopulationinthestudyareachangesovertime,thetimerequiredtoevacuatethepublicmayincrease,decrease,orremainthesame.Sinc etheETEisrelatedtothedemandtocapacityratiopresentwithinthestudyarea,changesinpopulationwillcausethedemandsideoftheequationtochange.Thesensitivitystudywasconductedusingthefollowingplanningassumptions:1. Thepercentchangeinpopulationwithinthestudyareawasvariedbetween+160%to 75%.Changesinpopulationwereappliedtopermanentresidentsonly(asperfederalguidance),inboththeEPZareaandintheShadowRegion.2. Thetransportationinfrastructureremainedfixed;thepresenceofnewroadsorhighwaycapacityimprovementswerenotconsidered.3. Thestudywa sperformedforthe2 MileRegion(R01),the5 MileRegion(R02)andtheentireEPZ(R03).4. Thenon specialeventscenariowhichyieldedthehighestETEvalueswasselectedasthecasetobeconsideredinthissensitivitystudy(Scenario6).TableM 3presentstheresultsofthesensitivitystudy.SectionIVofAppendixEto10CFRPart50,andNUREG/CR 7002,Section5.4,requirelicenseestoprovideanupdatedETEanalysistotheNRCwh enapopulationincreasewithintheEPZcausesETEvalues(forthe2 MileRegion,5 MileRegionorentireEPZ)toincreas eby25percentor30minutes,whicheverisless.NotethatthebaseR02andR03ETEvaluesareallgreaterthan2hours;25percentofthebaseETEisalwaysgreaterthan30minutes.Therefore,30minutesisthelesserandisthecriterionforupdatingtheR02andR03ETE.ThebaseETEfo rR01are1:30(90 thpercentile)and4:15(100 thpercentile),thereforeatthe90 thpercentilelevelanincreaseof25%isthelesservalueandwouldnecessitateanupdate.ThosepercentpopulationchangeswhichresultinETEchangesgreaterthan30minutesarehighlightedinredbelow-a160%increaseintheEPZpopulation.EntergywillhavetoestimatetheEPZpopulationonanannualbasis.IftheEPZpopulationincreasesby160%ormoreanupdatedETEanalysiswillbeneeded.

GrandGulfNuclearStationM 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChangeResidentPopulationBasePopulationChangeBasePopulationChange50%75%160%20%50%75%ETEfor90 thPercentileRegionBasePopulationChangeBasePopulationChange50%75%160%20%50%75%2MILE1:301:301:301:351:301:301:301:305MILE2:102:102:152:202:102:102:052:05FULLEPZ2:152:152:202:452:202:152:102:00ETEfor100 thPercentileRegionBasePopulationChangeBasePopulationChange50%75%160%20%50%75%2MILE4:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:455MILE4:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50FULLEPZ4:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 APPENDIXNETECriteriaChecklist GrandGulfNuclearStationN 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1N. ETECRITERIACHECKLISTTableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklistNRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments1.0Introductiona. Theemergencyplanningzone(EPZ)andsurroundingareashouldbedescribed.YesSection1b. Amapshouldbeincludedthatidentifiesprimaryfeaturesofthesite,includingmajorroadways,significanttopographicalfeatures,boundariesofcounties,andpopulationcenterswithintheEPZ.YesFigure1 1c. AcomparisonofthecurrentandpreviousETEshouldbeprovidedandincludessimilarinformationasidentifiedinTable1 1,"ETEComparison,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTable1 31.1Approacha. Adiscussionoftheapproachandlevelofdetailobtainedduringthefieldsurveyoftheroadwaynetworkshouldbeprovided.YesSection1.3b. Sourcesofdemographicdataforschools,specialfacilities,largeemployers,andspecialeventsshouldbeidentified.YesSection2.1Section3c. Discussionshouldbepresentedonuseoftrafficcontrolplansintheanalysis.YesSection1.3,Section2.3,Section9,AppendixGd. Trafficsimulationmodelsusedfortheanalysesshouldbeidentifiedbynameandversion.YesSection1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixCandD GrandGulfNuclearStationN 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Methodsusedtoaddressdatauncertaintiesshouldbedescribed.YesSection3-avoiddoublecountingandASUpopulationsSection5,AppendixF-4.5%samplingerrorat95%confidenceintervalfortelephonesurvey1.2Assumptionsa. TheplanningbasisfortheETEincludestheassumptionthattheevacuationshouldbeorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.YesSection2.3-Assumption1Section5.1b. AssumptionsconsistentwithTable1 2,"GeneralAssumptions,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludethebasistosupporttheiruse.YesSections2.2,2.31.3ScenarioDevelopmenta. ThetenscenariosinTable1 3,EvacuationScenarios,shouldbedevelopedfortheETEanalysis,orareasonshouldbeprovidedforuseofotherscenarios.YesTables2 1,6 21.3.1StagedEvacuationa. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedontheapproachusedindevelopmentofastagedevacuation.YesSections5.4.2,7.21.4EvacuationPlanningAreasa. AmapofEPZwithemergencyresponseplanningareas(ERPAs)shouldbeincluded.YesFigure6 1b. AtableshouldbeprovidedidentifyingtheERPAsconsideredforeachETEcalculationbydownwinddirectionineachsector.YesTable6 1 GrandGulfNuclearStationN 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. AtablesimilartoTable1 4,"EvacuationAreasforaStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludesthecompleteevacuationofthe2,5,and10mileareasandforthe2milearea/5milekeyholeevacuations.YesTable7 52.0DemandEstimationa. Demandestimationshouldbedevelopedforthefourpopulationgroups,includingpermanentresidentsoftheEPZ,transients,specialfacilities,andschools.YesPermanentresidents,employees,transients-Section3,AppendixESpecialfacilities,schools-Section8,AppendixE2.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. TheUSCensusshouldbethesourceofthepopulationvalues,oranothercrediblesourceshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.1b. PopulationvaluesshouldbeadjustedasnecessaryforgrowthtoreflectpopulationestimatestotheyearoftheETE.Yes2010usedasthebaseyearforanalysis.Nogrowthofpopulationnecessary.c. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1,"PopulationbySector,"ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforpermanentresidents.YesFigure3 22.1.1PermanentResidentswithVehiclesa. Thepersonspervehiclevalueshouldbebetween1and2orjustificationshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.Yes1.46personspervehicle-Table1 3b. Majoremployersshouldbelisted.YesAppendixE-TableE 32.1.2TransientPopulation GrandGulfNuclearStationN 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Alistoffacilitieswhichattracttransientpopulationsshouldbeincluded,andpeakandaverageattendanceforthesefacilitiesshouldbelisted.Thesourceofinformationusedtodevelopattendancevaluesshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4,AppendixEb. Theaveragepopulationduringtheseasonshouldbeused,itemizedandtotaledforeachscenario.YesTables3 4,3 5andAppendixEitemizethetransientpopulationandemployeeestimates.TheseestimatesaremultipliedbythescenariospecificpercentagesprovidedinTable6 3toestimatetransientpopulationbyscenario.c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsassumedtobeatfacilitiesshouldbeestimated.YesSections3.3,3.4d. Thenumberofpeoplepervehicleshouldbeprovided.Numbersmayvarybyscenario,andifso,discussiononwhyvaluesvaryshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4e. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforthetransientpopulation.YesFigure3 6-transientsFigure3 8-employees2.2TransitDependentPermanentResidentsa. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberoftransitdependentresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.1,Table8 1b. Transportationresourcesneededtoevacuatethisgroupshouldbequantified.YesSection8.1,Tables8 5,8 9c. Thecounty/localevacuationplansfortransitdependentresidentsshouldbeusedintheanalysis.YesSections8.1,8.4 GrandGulfNuclearStationN 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberofpeoplewithdisabilitiesandthosewithaccessandfunctionalneedswhomayneedassistanceanddonotresideinspecialfacilitiesshouldbeprovided.Datafromlocal/countyregistrationprogramsshouldbeusedintheestimate,butshouldnotbetheonlysetofdata.YesSection8.5e. Capacitiesshouldbeprovidedforalltypesoftransportationresources.Busseatingcapacityof50%shouldbeusedorjustificationshouldbeprovidedforhighervalues.YesSection2.3-Assumption10Sections3.5,8.1,8.2,8.3f. Anestimateofthispopulationshouldbeprovidedandinformationshouldbeprovidedthattheexistingregistrationprogramswereusedindevelopingtheestimate.YesTable8 1-transitdependentsSection8.5-specialneedsg. Asummarytableofthetotalnumberofbuses,ambulances,orothertransportneededtosupportevacuationshouldbeprovidedandthequantificationofresourcesshouldbedetailedenoughtoassuredoublecountinghasnotoccurred.YesTable8 5Sections8.1,8.4,8.52.3SpecialFacilityResidentsa. Alistofspecialfacilities,includingthetypeoffacility,location,andaveragepopulationshouldbeprovided.Specialfacilitystaffshouldbeincludedinthetotalspecialfacilitypopulation.YesAppendixE,TablesE 2,E 6-listfacilities,type,location,andpopulationb. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedonhowspecialfacilitydatawasobtained.YesSections3.5,8.3 GrandGulfNuclearStationN 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundindividualsshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.5d. Anestimateofthenumberandcapacityofvehiclesneededtosupporttheevacuationofthefacilityshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3,8.4,8.6Tables8 4,8 5e. Thelogisticsformobilizingspeciallytrainedstaff(e.g.,medicalsupportorsecuritysupportforprisons,jails,andothercorrectionalfacilities)shouldbediscussedwhenappropriate.YesSection3.52.4Schoolsa. Alistofschoolsincludingname,location,studentpopulation,andtransportationresourcesrequiredtosupporttheevacuation,shouldbeprovided.Thesourceofthisinformationshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 2.TableE 1Section8.2b. Transportationresourcesforelementaryandmiddleschoolsshouldbebasedon100%oftheschoolcapacity.YesTable8 2c. Theestimateofhighschoolstudentswhowillusetheirpersonalvehicletoevacuateshouldbeprovidedandabasisforthevaluesusedshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.2d. Theneedforreturntripsshouldbeidentifiedifnecessary.YesTherearesufficientresourcestoevacuateschoolsinasinglewave.However,Tables8 7and8 8showacalculatedsecondwaveincaseneededbythecounty/parishastheresourcesfluctuateandmaybelimited.

GrandGulfNuclearStationN 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments2.5.1SpecialEventsa. Acompletelistofspecialeventsshouldbeprovidedandincludesinformationonthepopulation,estimatedduration,andseasonoftheevent.YesSection3.7b. ThespecialeventthatencompassesthepeaktransientpopulationshouldbeanalyzedintheETE.YesSection3.7c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsattendingtheeventshouldbeestimated.YesSection3.72.5.2ShadowEvacuationa. Ashadowevacuationof20percentshouldbeincludedforareasoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesfromtheNPP.YesSection2.2-Assumption5Figure2 1Section3.2b. Populationestimatesfortheshadowevacuationinthe10to15mileareabeyondtheEPZareprovidedbysector.YesSection3.2Figure3 4Table3 3c. Theloadingoftheshadowevacuationontotheroadwaynetworkshouldbeconsistentwiththetripgenerationtimegeneratedforthepermanentresidentpopulation.YesSection5-Table5 8footnote2.5.3BackgroundandPassThroughTraffic GrandGulfNuclearStationN 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Thevolumeofbackgroundtrafficandpassthroughtrafficisbasedontheaveragedaytimetraffic.Valuesmaybereducedfornighttimescenarios.YesSection3.6Table3 6Section6Table6 3b. PassthroughtrafficisassumedtohavestoppedenteringtheEPZabouttwohoursaftertheinitialnotification.YesSection2.3-Assumption5Section3.62.6SummaryofDemandEstimationa. Asummarytableshouldbeprovidedthatidentifiesthetotalpopulationsandtotalvehiclesusedinanalysisforpermanentresidents,transients,transitdependentresidents,specialfacilities,schools,shadowpopulation,andpass throughdemandusedineachscenario.YesTables3 7,3 83.0RoadwayCapacitya. Themethod(s)usedtoassessroadwaycapacityshouldbediscussed.YesSection43.1RoadwayCharacteristicsa. AfieldsurveyofkeyrouteswithintheEPZhasbeenconducted.YesSection1.3b. Informationshouldbeprovideddescribingtheextentofthesurvey,andtypesofinformationgatheredandusedintheanalysis.YesSection1.3c. AtablesimilartothatinAppendixA,"RoadwayCharacteristics,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovided.YesAppendixK,TableK 1 GrandGulfNuclearStationN 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Calculationsforarepresentativeroadwaysegmentshouldbeprovided.YesSection4e. AlegiblemapoftheroadwaysystemthatidentifiesnodenumbersandsegmentsusedtodeveloptheETEshouldbeprovidedandshouldbesimilartoFigure3 1,"RoadwayNetworkIdentifyingNodesandSegments,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesAppendixK,FiguresK 1throughK 25presenttheentirelink nodeanalysisnetworkatascalesuitabletoidentifyalllinksandnodes3.2CapacityAnalysisa. Theapproachusedtocalculatetheroadwaycapacityforthetransportationnetworkshouldbedescribedindetailandidentifiesfactorsthatshouldbeexpresslyusedinthemodeling.YesSection4b. ThecapacityanalysisidentifieswherefieldinformationshouldbeusedintheETEcalculation.YesSection1.3,Section43.3IntersectionControla. Alistofintersectionsshouldbeprovidedthatincludesthetotalnumberofintersectionsmodeledthatareunsignalized,signalized,ormannedbyresponsepersonnel.YesAppendixK,TableK 2b. Characteristicsforthe10highestvolumeintersectionswithintheEPZareprovidedincludingthelocation,signalcyclelength,andturnlanequeuecapacity.YesTableJ 1c. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonhowsignalcycletimeisusedinthecalculations.YesSection4.1,AppendixC.3.4AdverseWeather GrandGulfNuclearStationN 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Theadverseweatherconditionshouldbeidentifiedandtheeffectsofadverseweatheronmobilizationtimeshouldbeconsidered.YesTable2 1,2 2Section2.3-Assumption9b. ThespeedandcapacityreductionfactorsidentifiedinTable3 1,"WeatherCapacityFactors,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeusedorabasisshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.YesTable2 2-basedonHCM2010.ThefactorsprovidedinTable3 1ofNUREG/CR 7002arefromHCM2000.c. Thestudyidentifiesassumptionsforsnowremovalonstreetsanddriveways,whenapplicable.YesNosnowscenarios4.0DevelopmentofEvacuationTimes4.1TripGenerationTimea. Theprocessusedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesshouldbeidentified.YesSection5b. Whentelephonesurveysareused,thescopeofthesurvey,areaofsurvey,numberofparticipants,andstatisticalrelevanceshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixFc. Dataobtainedfromtelephonesurveysshouldbesummarized.YesAppendixFd. Thetripgenerationtimeforeachpopulationgroupshouldbedevelopedfromsitespecificinformation.YesSection5,AppendixF4.1.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulation GrandGulfNuclearStationN 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Permanentresidentsareassumedtoevacuatefromtheirhomesbutarenotassumedtobeathomeatalltimes.Tripgenerationtimeincludestheassumptionthatapercentageofresidentswillneedtoreturnhomepriortoevacuating.YesSection5discussestripgenerationforhouseholdswithandwithoutreturningcommuters.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofhouseholdswithreturningcommutersandthepercentageofhouseholdseitherwithoutreturningcommutersorwithnocommuters.AppendixFpresentsthepercenthouseholdswhowillawaitthereturnofcommuters.b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonthetimeandmethodusedtonotifytransients.Thetripgenerationtimediscussesanydifficultiesnotifyingpersonsinhardtoreachareassuchasonlakesorincampgrounds.YesSection5.4.3c. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsfortransientspotentiallyreturningtohotelspriortoevacuating.YesSection5,Figure5 1d. Effectofpublictransportationresourcesusedduringspecialeventswherealargenumberoftransientsshouldbeexpectedshouldbeconsidered.YesSection3.7e. Thetripgenerationtimeforthetransientpopulationshouldbeintegratedandloadedontothetransportationnetworkwiththegeneralpublic.YesSection5,Table5 8,Figure5 44.1.2TransitDependentResidents GrandGulfNuclearStationN 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Ifavailable,existingplansandbusroutesshouldbeusedintheETEanalysis.IfnewplansshouldbedevelopedwiththeETE,theyhavebeenagreeduponbytheresponsibleauthorities.YesSection8.3-page8 7.Preestablishedbusroutesdonotexist.BasicbusroutesweredevelopedfortheETEanalysis-seeFigure8 2,Table8 6,8 9.b. Discussionshouldbeincludedonthemeansofevacuatingambulatoryandnonambulatoryresidents.YesSection8.4,8.5c. Thenumber,location,andavailabilityofbuses,andotherresourcesneededtosupportthedemandestimationshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4Table8 5d. Logisticaldetails,suchasthetimetoobtainbuses,briefdrivers,andinitiatethebusrouteshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,Figure8 1e. Discussionshouldidentifythetimeestimatedfortransitdependentresidentstoprepareandtraveltoabuspickuppoint,anddescribestheexpectedmeansoftraveltothepickuppoint.YesSection8.4,8.5f. Thenumberofbusstopsandtimeneededtoloadpassengersshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.4,8.5g. Amapofbusroutesshouldbeincluded.YesFigure8 2h. Thetripgenerationtimefornonambulatorypersonsincludesthetimetomobilizeambulancesorspecialvehicles,timetodrivetothehomeofresidents,loadingtime,andtimetodriveoutoftheEPZshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.5,Table8 14i. Informationshouldbeprovidedtosupportsanalysisofreturntrips,ifnecessary.YesSections8.4Figure8 1Tables8 10through8 11 GrandGulfNuclearStationN 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.1.3SpecialFacilitiesa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimesshouldbeprovided.YesSections8 3,8 4,8.6Tables8 4,8 12,8 13,8 16b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSections8.4,8.6c. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundindividualsshouldbeprovided,andthelogisticsofevacuatingtheseresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesTables8 4,8 12,8 13d. TimeforloadingofresidentsshouldbeprovidedYesSection8.4,8.6e. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsshouldbeneeded.YesSection8.4,Table8 5f. Ifreturntripsshouldbeneeded,thedestinationofvehiclesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4Figure10 1g. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherspecialfacilityresidentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesSection8.4h. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesSection8.44.1.4Schoolsa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4 GrandGulfNuclearStationN 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSchoolbusroutesarepresentedinTable8 6.SchoolbusspeedsarepresentedinTables8 7(goodweather),and8 8(rain).OutboundspeedsaredefinedastheminimumoftheevacuationroutespeedandtheStateschoolbusspeedlimit.Inboundspeedsarelimit edtotheStateschoolbusspeedlimit.c. Timeforloadingofstudentsshouldbeprovided.YesTables8 7,8 8,DiscussioninSection8.4d. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsareneeded.YesSection8.4e. Ifreturntripsareneeded,thedestinationofschoolbusesshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 3Section8.4f. Ifused,receptioncentersshouldbeidentified.Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherstudentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesTable8 3.Studentsareevacuatedtoreceptioncenterswheretheywillbepickedupbyparentsorguardians.g. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesTables8 7and8 8providetimeneededtoarriveatreceptioncenter,whichcouldbeusedtocomputeasecondwaveevacuationifnecessary4.2ETEModeling GrandGulfNuclearStationN 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. GeneralinformationaboutthemodelshouldbeprovidedanddemonstratesitsuseinETEstudies.YesDYNEVII(Ver.4.0.10.0).Section1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC.b. IfatrafficsimulationmodelisnotusedtoconducttheETEcalculation,sufficientdetailshouldbeprovidedtovalidatetheanalyticalapproachused.Allcriteriaelementsshouldhavebeenmet,asappropriate.NoNotapplicableasatrafficsimulationmodelwasused.4.2.1TrafficSimulationModelInputa. Trafficsimulationmodelassumptionsandarepresentativesetofmodelinputsshouldbeprovided.YesAppendicesBandCdescribethesimulationmodelassumptionsandalgorithmsTableJ 2b. Aglossaryoftermsshouldbeprovidedforthekeyperformancemeasuresandparametersusedintheanalysis.YesAppendixATablesC 1,C 24.2.2TrafficSimulationModelOutputa. AdiscussionregardingwhetherthetrafficsimulationmodelusedmustbeinequilibrationpriortocalculatingtheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixB GrandGulfNuclearStationN 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Theminimumfollowingmodeloutputsshouldbeprovidedtosupportreview:1. TotalvolumeandpercentbyhourateachEPZexitnode.2. Networkwideaveragetraveltime.3. Longestqueuelengthforthe10intersectionswiththehighesttrafficvolume.4. Totalvehiclesexitingthenetwork.5. AplotthatprovidesboththemobilizationcurveandevacuationcurveidentifyingthecumulativepercentageofevacueeswhohavemobilizedandexitedtheEPZ.6. AveragespeedforeachmajorevacuationroutethatexitstheEPZ.Yes1. TableJ 5.2. TableJ 3.3. TableJ 1.4. TableJ 3.5. FiguresJ 1throughJ 12(oneplotforeachscenarioconsidered

).6. TableJ 4.NetworkwideaveragespeedalsoprovidedinTableJ 3.c. Colorcodedroadwaymapsshouldbeprovidedforvarioustimes(i.e.,at2,4,6hrs.,etc.)duringafullEPZevacuationscenario,identifyingareaswherelongqueuesexistincludinglevelofservice(LOS)"E"andLOS"F"conditions,iftheyoccur.YesFigures7 3through7 74.3EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheGeneralPublica. TheETEshouldincludethetimetoevacuate90%and100%ofthetotalpermanentresidentandtransientpopulationYesTables7 1,7 2 GrandGulfNuclearStationN 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. TheETEfor100%ofthegeneralpublicshouldincludeallmembersofthegeneralpublic.Anyreductionsortruncateddatashouldbeexplained.YesSection5.4-truncatingsurveydatatoeliminatestatisticaloutliersTable7 2-100 thpercentileETEforgeneralpublicc. Tablesshouldbeprovidedforthe90and100percentETEssimilartoTable4 3,"ETEsforStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTables7 3,7 4d. ETEsshouldbeprovidedforthe100percentevacuationofspecialfacilities,transitdependent,andschoolpopulations.YesSection8.2 8.6Tables8 4,8 7through8 8Tables8 10through8 165.0OtherConsiderations5.1DevelopmentofTrafficControlPlansa. Informationthatresponsibleauthoritieshaveapprovedthetrafficcontrolplanusedintheanalysisshouldbeprovided.YesSection9,AppendixGb. AdiscussionofadjustmentsoradditionstothetrafficcontrolplanthataffecttheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixG5.2EnhancementsinEvacuationTimea. Theresultsofassessmentsforimprovementofevacuationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixMb. Astatementordiscussionregardingpresentationofenhancementstolocalauthoritiesshouldbeprovided.YesResultsoftheETEstudywereformallypresentedtolocalauthoritiesatthefinalprojectmeeting.Recommendedenhancementswerediscussed.

GrandGulfNuclearStationN 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments5.3StateandLocalReviewa. Alistofagenciescontactedandtheextentofinteractionwiththeseagenciesshouldbediscussed.YesTable1 1b. InformationshouldbeprovidedonanyunresolvedissuesthatmayaffecttheETE.YesCommentresolutionformwasprovidedandanyissueswereresolved.5.4ReviewsandUpdatesa. AdiscussionofwhenanupdatedETEanalysisisrequiredtobeperformedandsubmittedtotheNRC.YesAppendixM,SectionM.35.5ReceptionCentersandCongregateCareCentera. Amapofcongregatecarecentersandreceptioncentersshouldbeprovided.YesFigure10 1b. Ifreturntripsarerequired,assumptionsusedtoestimatereturntimesforbusesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4discussesamulti waveevacuationprocedure.Figure8 1c. Itshouldbeclearlystatedifitisassumedthatpassengersareleftatthereceptioncenterandaretakenbyseparatebusestothecongregatecarecenter.YesSection2.3-Assumption7hSection10 TechnicalReviewer_________________

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