Text

Kld TR-523, Rev. 1, River Bend Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report, Cover Through Appendix H, Evacuation Regions, Page H-1
	ML13023A072
Person / Time
Site:	River Bend
Issue date:	12/18/2012
From:	; KLD Engineering, PC
To:	; NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Entergy Operations
Shared Package
ML130230023	List: CNRO-2012-00013, Kld TR-502, Rev. 1, Waterford 3 Steam Electric Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report; ML13023A006; ML13023A023; ML13023A024; ML13023A025; ML13023A028; ML13023A031; ML13023A035; ML13023A048; ML13023A070; ML13023A072; ML13023A073;
References
	CNRO-2012-00013, ENOC-2012-00038 KLD TR-523, Rev 1
	Download: ML13023A072 (250)
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December2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-523 RiverBendStationDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforEntergy,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com RiverBendStationiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 11.2TheRiverBendStationLocation................................................................................................1 31.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 51.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy..............................................................................................1 92STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 83.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 113.4Employees...............................................................................................................................

.3 153.5MedicalFacilities......................................................................................................................3 193.6TotalDemandinAddi tiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 193.7SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 193.8SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 214ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtotheRiverBendStationStudyArea.....................................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Freeways............................................................................................................................4 74.3.4Intersections......................................................................................................................4 84.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 85ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background...............................................................................................................................

.5 15.2Fundam entalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 115.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 125.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 165.4.3TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................5 176DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 17.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................7 17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 1 RiverBendStationiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 27.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 37.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 47.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 57.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 58TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 48.3MedicalFacilityDemand............................................................................................................8 48.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................8 58.5SpecialNeedsPopulation...........................................................................................................8 98.6CorrectionalFacilities...............................................................................................................8 109TRAFF ICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUATIONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 111SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS...........................................................................11 112CONFIRMATIONTIME..................................................................................................................12 1ListofAppendicesA.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 12C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 12C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 12C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C 15D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.SPECIALFACILITYDATA......................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.3SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F 3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F 3F.3.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F 7F.3.3TimeDistributionResults.......................................................................................................F 9F.4Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 11G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1 RiverBendStationiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1G.2AccessControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1HEVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.PASBOUNDARIES...............................................................................................................................L 1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentio nallyskipped RiverBendStationivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofFiguresFigure1 1.RBSLocation...........................................................................................................................1 4Figure1 2.RBSLink NodeAnalysisNetwork............................................................................................1 7Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.RBSEPZ...................................................................................................................................3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 6Figure3 3.PermanentRe sidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 7Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 9Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector...................................................................................................3 10Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 13Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 14Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 17Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 18Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams............................................................................................................4 9Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 10Figure5 3.ComparisonofDa taDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................5 14Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 19Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion.................................................................................5 21Figure6 1.RBSEPZPAS............................................................................................................................6 5Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................7 16Figure7 2.RBSShadowRegion..............................................................................................................7 17Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat35MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................7 18Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 19Figure7 5.CongestionPa tternsat1Hour,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate........................7 20Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2Hours,50MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................7 21Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat3HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 22Figure7 8.CongestionPa tternsat3Hours,35MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................7 23Figure7 9.CongestionPatternsat4Hours,20MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................7 24Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 11.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR0 3....................................................7 27Figure7 15.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 16.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 18.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................7 29Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................7 29Figure7 20.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................7 30Figure7 21.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................7 30Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................8 12Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes.............................................................................................8 13Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationandSchoolReceptionCenters............................................................10 2Figure10 2.RBSMajorEvacuationRoutes.............................................................................................10 3 RiverBendStationvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 4FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 6FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 14FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................................E 11FigureE 2.Pre schoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZ.............................................................................E 12FigureE 3.Medi calFacilitieswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 13FigureE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 14FigureE 5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ........................................................................................E 15FigureE 6.HuntingClubswithintheEPZ................................................................................................E 16FigureE 7.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 17FigureE 8.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ...................................................................................E 18FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 4FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 4FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to10+PersonHouseholds..................................................................F 5FigureF 5.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 6FigureF 6.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 7FigureF 7.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F 8FigureF 8.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets...........................................................................................F 8FigureF 9.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..................................................................F 9FigureF 10.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F 10FigureF 11.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 11FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsfortheRBSSite...................................................................................G 3FigureG 2.IntersectionofStateRoute10andStateRoute19...............................................................G 4FigureG 3.ProposedTrafficControlPointatintersectionofStateRoute10andStateRoute19.........G 5FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 4FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 6.RegionR06.............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 7.RegionR07...........................................................................................................................H 10FigureH 8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H 12FigureH 10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H 13FigureH 11.RegionR11.........................................................................................................................H 14FigureH 12.RegionR12.........................................................................................................................H 15FigureH 13.RegionR13.........................................................................................................................H 16FigureH 14.RegionR14.........................................................................................................................H 17FigureH 15.RegionR15.........................................................................................................................H 18FigureH 16.RegionR16.........................................................................................................................H 19FigureH 17.RegionR17.........................................................................................................................H 20FigureH 18.RegionR18.........................................................................................................................H 21FigureH 19.RegionR19.........................................................................................................................H 22 RiverBendStationviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 20.RegionR20.........................................................................................................................H 23FigureH 21.RegionR21.........................................................................................................................H 24FigureH 22.RegionR22.........................................................................................................................H 25FigureH 23.RegionR23.........................................................................................................................H 26FigureH 24.RegionR24.........................................................................................................................H 27FigureH 25.RegionR25.........................................................................................................................H 28FigureH 26.RegionR26.........................................................................................................................H 29FigureH 27.RegionR27.........................................................................................................................H 30FigureH 28.RegionR28.........................................................................................................................H 31FigureH 29.RegionR29.........................................................................................................................H 32FigureH 30.RegionR30.........................................................................................................................H 33FigureH 31.RegionR31.........................................................................................................................H 34FigureH 32.RegionR32.........................................................................................................................H 35FigureH 33.RegionR33.........................................................................................................................H 36FigureH 34.RegionR34.........................................................................................................................H 37FigureH 35.RegionR35.........................................................................................................................H 38FigureH 36.RegionR36.........................................................................................................................H 39FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 7FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 7FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J 8FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J 8FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)........................................................................................J 9FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)................J 9FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J 10FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario8)..............J 10FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)...............................J 11FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario10).........J 11FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,We ekend,Midday,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario11).........................................................................J 12FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)....................................................................J 12FigureK 1.RBSLink NodeAnalysisNetwork............................................................................................K 2FigureK 2.Li nk NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K 3FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2.....................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Li nk NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K 9FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K 10FigureK 10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K 11FigureK 11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K 12FigureK 12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K 13FigureK 13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K 14FigureK 14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K 15FigureK 15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K 16 RiverBendStationviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K 17FigureK 17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K 18FigureK 18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K 19FigureK 19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K 20FigureK 20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K 21FigureK 21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K 22FigureK 22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K 23FigureK 23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K 24FigureK 24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K 25FigureK 25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K 26FigureK 26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25...............................................................................K 27FigureK 27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26...............................................................................K 28FigureK 28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27...............................................................................K 29FigureK 29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28...............................................................................K 30FigureK 30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29...............................................................................K 31FigureK 31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30...............................................................................K 32FigureK 32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31...............................................................................K 33FigureK 33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32...............................................................................K 34FigureK 34.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33...............................................................................K 35FigureK 35.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34...............................................................................K 36FigureK 36.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35...............................................................................K 37 RiverBendStationviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 1Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 5Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons............................................................................................................1 9Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 7Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPAS.............................................................3 5Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 8Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 12Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 16Table3 6.RB SEPZExternalTraffic..........................................................................................................3 20Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 22Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 23Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.MappingDistri butionstoEvents............................................................................................5 11Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 12Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuation.....................5 18Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.........................5 20Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRe gions...........................................................................................6 3Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 6Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 7Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario..................................................................................................6 8Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheA ffectedPopulation...........................7 8Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 10Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 12Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 13Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 14Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................8 14Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................8 15Table8 3.SchoolReceptionCenters......................................................................................................8 16Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemand............................................................................................8 17Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 18Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 19Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................8 21Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain...............................................................................8 22Table8 9.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutes..........................................................................8 23Table8 10.Tran sit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................8 24Table8 11.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................8 25Table8 12.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather.............................................8 26Table8 13.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-Rain.............................................................8 27Table8 14.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates....................................8 28 RiverBendStationixKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 15.CorrectionalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates..................................................................8 28Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation..............12 3TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 7TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E 2TableE 2.DaycaresandPreschoolswithintheEPZ.................................................................................E 3TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 4TableE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 5TableE 5.RecreationalAttractionswithintheEPZ..................................................................................E 7TableE 6.HuntingClubswithintheEPZ...................................................................................................E 8TableE 7.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ...............................................................................................E 9TableE 8.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ......................................................................................E 10TableF 1.RBSTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2TableH 1.PercentofPASPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion.........................................................H 2TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 3TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J 4TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)..................................................................J 5TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J 6TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 38TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled...........................................K 72TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1

RiverBendStationES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheRiverBendStation(RBS)locatedinWestFelicianaParish,LA.ETEarepartoftherequiredplanningbasisandprovideEntergyandStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProt ectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMA REP 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. 10CFR50,AppendixE-"EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities"OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinMarch2012andextendedoveraperiodofsixmonths.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingswithEnergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandparishgovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010.StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheRiverBendStation,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetwork. Synthesizedthisinformationtocreateananal ysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweenth eEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyusedwascarriedoutin2008;itisstillvalidsincetherehasnotbeenasignificantchangeinEPZdemographics.Thesurveyinstrumenthadbeenreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey. DatacollectionwasrenderedfromtheRiverBendStationDataResourcesbook.Alldatawasprovidedfortransientsandemployees.

RiverBendStationES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Thetrafficdemandandtrip generationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfed eralguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto18ProtectiveActionSectors(PAS).ThesePASarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof36EvacuationRegions. Thetime varyingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain).OnespecialeventscenarioinvolvingtheMardiGrascelebrationonNewRoadswasconsidered.OneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonUS61southboundforthedurationofth eevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5mileswereevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: ArapidlyescalatingaccidentattheRiverBendStationthatquicklyassumesthestatusofGe neralEmergencysuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedinatimelymannerfollowingthesirennotificationandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthestatedpercentageofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncentersorhostschoolslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtonotpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodono thaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedintheparishevacuationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllikewisebeevacuatedwithpublictransit,asneeded:bus,van,orambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEar ecalculatedforthetransit dependentevacuees,forhomeboundspecialneedspopulation,andforthoseevacuatedfromspecialfacilities.ComputationofETEAtotalof432ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe36EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe12 RiverBendStationES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EvacuationScenarios(36x12=432).SeparateETEarecalculatedfortransit dependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofET Eassumesthat20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butoutsidetheimpactedregion,willelectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.Theimpedanceth atcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter in place.Once90%ofthe2 mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillev acuate(non compliance)eventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter in place.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Ea chlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwi thfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),thensimulatesthetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofth epopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.Thesestatisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.Theuseofapublicoutreach(information)programtoemphasizetheneedforevacueestominimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(securethehome,as sembleneededclothes,medicines,etc.)shouldalsobeconsidered.

RiverBendStationES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TrafficManagementThisstudyreferencesthecomprehensivetrafficmanagementplansprovidedbytheRiverBendStationandtheStateofLouisiana,andidentifiescriticalintersections.OneadditionalTCPissuggested,asdetailedinAppendixG.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformofFiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6 1displaysamapoftheRBSEPZshowingthelayoutofthe18PASthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3 1presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachPASbasedonthe2010Censusdata. Table6 1defineseachofthe36EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofPAS. Table6 2liststheEvacuationScenarios. Tables7 1and7 2arecompilationsofETE.The sedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherregionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Tables7 3and7 4presentsETEforthe2 milere gionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table8 7presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. Table8 10presentsETEforthetransit dependentpopulationingoodweather. FigureH 8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.Mapsofal lregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor432uniquecases-acombinationof36uniqueEvacuationRegionsand12uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheseETErangefrom2:10(hr:min)to3:10atthe90 thpercentile(non specialeventcases). InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile.ThisistheresultofthelongtailtothetripgenerationcurvesaswellascongestionwithintheEPZ.Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadyle fttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.SeeFigures7 10through7 21.

RiverBendStationES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 InspectionofTable7 3andTable7 4indicatesthatastagedevacuationprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles(compareRegionsR02andR04throughR13withRegionsR26,andR27throughR36,respectively,inTables7 1and7 2).SeeSection7.6foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios8(winter,weekend,midday,goodweather)and11(winter,weekend,midday)inTable7 2indicatesthatthespecialeventsignificantlyimpactsboththe90 thand100 thpercentileETE.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and12inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanesouthboundonUS61fromSt.FrancisvilletoSR64attheboundaryoftheEPZ-doesnothaveasignificantimpactonthe90 thpercentileETE.US61isatwolanehighspeedhighwaythroughtheentireEPZandevenwithonelaneclosedsouthbound,thereisenoughcapacityontheremaininglaneandotheroutboundroadways,tohandledemand. JacksonandNewRoadsarethetwomostcongestedareasduringanevacuation.ThelastlocationintheEPZtoexhibittrafficcongestionisJackson;thisistheresultofSR10beingamajorevacuationroute.AllcongestionwithintheEPZclearsby4hoursand20minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,fortheScenario6,Region3case.SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 9. Separat eETEwerecomputedforschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpersons,homeboundspecialneedspersonsandcorrectionalfacilities.TheaveragesinglewaveETEforthesefacilitiesarewithinasimilarrangeasthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile.SeeSection8. Table8 5indicatesthattherearesufficientbusesandwheelchairbusesavailabletoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZinasinglewave.Asecond waveETEforschoolsandothertransit dependentsisnotneeded.SeeSections8.4and8.5. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileisrelativelyinsensitivetoreductionsinthebasetripgenerationtimeof43/4hoursduetothemoderatetrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.Reducingthetripgenerationtimeby2hoursonlyreducesthe90 thand100 thpercentileETEby20and25minutes,respectively.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisrelativelyinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion.Onlylargechangesinthepercentshadowevacuationhaveasignificantimpact(triplingtheshadowevacuationpercentageincreasesthe90 thpercentileETEby30minutes).SeeTableM 2. Populationchangesof+30%resultinETEchangeswhichmeetthecriteriaforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.SeeSectionM.3.

RiverBendStationES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.RBSEPZPAS RiverBendStationES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationPAS2000Population2010Population163666923,4903,37733245014105965212662,0482,184770490188159459310104,1512,488113111,80312198393132,0402,6351418022315625516576338171,6821,703188,0057,875TOTAL25,00025,592EPZPopulationGrowth:2.37%

RiverBendStationES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAS123456789 101112131415161718R012mileringXR025 mileringXXXXX XXR03FullEPZXXXX X X X X X XXXXXXXXXEvacuate2mileringand5milesdownwindRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS123456789 101112131415161718R04N,NNEXXXR05NEXXR06ENEXXXR07E,ESEXXXX XR08SE,SSEXXXR09SXXXXR10SSWXXXR11SW,WSWXXR12WXXXXR13WNW,NW,NNWXXEvacuate5mileringanddownwindtoEPZboundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS123456789 101112131415161718R14N,NNEXXXX X X X X X XXR15NE,ENEXXXX X X X X XXXR16EXXXX XX X X XXXXXR17ESEXXXX XX XXXXXXR18SEXXXX XX XXXXXXR19SSEXXXX XX XXXXXXXR20SXXXX XX XXXXXXR21SSWXXXX XX XXXXXR22SW,WSWXXXX XX XXXXR23WXXXX X XX XXXR24WNW,NWXXXX X XX XXR25NNWXXXX X X X X XX RiverBendStationES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS123456789 101112131415161718R265MileRingXXXXX XXR27N,NNEXXXR28NEXXR29ENEXXXR30E,ESEXXXX XR31SE,SSEXXXR32SXXXXR33SSWXXXR34SW,WSWXXR35WXXXXR36WNW,NW,NNWXXShelter inPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateArea(s)Shelter in PlaceArea(s)Evacuate RiverBendStationES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11WinterWeekendMiddayGoodMardiGrasFestivalinNewRoads,LA12SummerWeekendMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonUS61SB1Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

RiverBendStationES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR012:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R01R022:252:302:202:202:202:252:252:152:152:202:152:25R02R033:053:152:503:052:553:103:202:553:152:554:503:10R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:252:252:152:202:202:252:252:152:152:202:152:25R04R052:202:202:152:202:202:202:202:152:152:202:152:20R05R062:202:202:152:202:202:202:202:152:152:202:152:20R06R072:252:252:202:202:202:202:252:152:202:202:152:25R07R082:202:252:202:252:252:202:202:152:202:202:152:20R08R092:202:252:202:252:252:202:202:152:202:202:152:20R09R102:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R10R112:152:202:152:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:152:15R11R122:252:252:152:202:202:202:252:102:152:152:102:25R12R132:252:252:152:202:202:202:252:102:152:152:102:25R135 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR143:203:353:103:303:203:303:503:203:453:203:203:20R14R153:053:152:553:002:553:103:203:003:152:553:003:05R15R163:053:102:502:552:503:103:152:553:102:502:553:05R16R172:302:352:202:202:202:302:302:152:202:202:152:30R17R182:302:302:202:202:202:302:302:152:202:202:152:30R18R192:302:352:202:202:202:302:302:152:202:202:152:30R19R202:352:352:202:202:202:302:352:152:202:205:002:35R20R212:352:352:202:202:202:302:352:152:202:205:002:35R21R222:352:352:202:202:202:302:302:152:202:205:002:35R22R232:352:352:202:252:202:302:402:252:352:205:002:35R23 RiverBendStationES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR242:302:302:202:252:202:302:402:252:402:202:252:30R24R253:053:152:503:052:553:153:203:103:202:553:103:05R25StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR263:003:053:003:003:053:003:003:003:003:053:003:00R26R273:053:053:003:003:103:053:053:003:003:053:003:05R27R282:452:452:452:452:452:402:452:402:402:452:402:45R28R292:452:452:452:452:452:402:452:402:402:452:402:45R29R302:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:452:452:452:452:45R30R312:402:402:402:402:452:352:352:352:402:452:352:40R31R322:402:402:402:402:452:402:402:402:402:452:402:40R32R332:352:352:402:402:402:352:352:352:352:402:352:35R33R342:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:352:352:402:352:35R34R352:553:002:552:553:002:553:002:552:553:002:552:55R35R363:003:002:552:553:002:553:002:552:553:002:553:00R36

RiverBendStationES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R01R024:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R02R034:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:556:404:55R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R04R054:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R05R064:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R06R074:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R07R084:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R08R094:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R09R104:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R10R114:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R11R124:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R12R134:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R135 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR144:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R14R154:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R15R164:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R16R174:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R17R184:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R18R194:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R19R204:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:556:404:55R20R214:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:556:354:55R21R224:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:556:404:55R22R234:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:556:354:55R23 RiverBendStationES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR244:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R24R254:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R25StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR264:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R26R274:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R27R284:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R28R294:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R29R304:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R30R314:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R31R324:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R32R334:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R33R344:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R34R354:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R35R364:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R36 RiverBendStationES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionR012:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R01UnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR022:202:252:202:202:252:202:202:152:202:202:152:20R02R042:202:252:202:202:252:202:202:152:202:252:152:20R04R052:202:202:152:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:152:20R05R062:202:202:152:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:152:20R06R072:202:202:152:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:152:20R07R082:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R08R092:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R09R102:152:202:152:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:152:15R10R112:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R11R122:202:252:202:202:252:152:202:152:202:202:152:20R12R132:202:252:202:202:252:202:202:152:202:202:152:20R13StagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR262:402:452:452:452:452:402:402:452:452:452:452:40R26R272:402:452:452:452:452:402:402:452:452:452:452:40R27R282:302:352:302:352:402:302:302:302:302:402:302:30R28R292:302:352:302:352:402:302:302:302:302:402:302:30R29R302:302:352:302:352:402:302:302:302:302:402:302:30R30R312:302:302:302:302:352:252:302:252:252:352:252:30R31R322:302:302:302:302:352:252:302:252:252:352:252:30R32R332:302:302:302:302:352:252:302:252:252:352:252:30R33R342:302:302:302:302:352:252:302:252:252:352:252:30R34R352:402:452:452:452:452:402:402:402:402:452:402:40R35R362:402:452:452:452:452:402:402:402:452:452:402:40R36 RiverBendStationES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R01UnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR024:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R02R044:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R04R054:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R05R064:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R06R074:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R07R084:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R08R094:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R09R104:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R10R114:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R11R124:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R12R134:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R13StagedEvacuation 2MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR264:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R26R274:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R27R284:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R28R294:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R29R304:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R30R314:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R31R324:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R32R334:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R33R344:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R34R354:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R35R364:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R36 RiverBendStationES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)EASTBATONROUGE,LAPortHudsonCareerAcademy90152.255.031:5017.3192:10EASTFELICIANA,LAJacksonPublicSchools90153.59.3232:1033.3372:45QuadArea JacksonHeadStart90153.29.7202:0533.3372:45POINTECOUPEE,LACatholicSchoolsNewRoads90151.839.731:5034.1382:30ChristianWomenCaringforChildren90151.134.521:5041.2452:35FalseRiverAcademy90151.339.721:5034.1382:25KidDLandDaycare&Learning90151.234.531:5041.2452:35MaeMae'sPlayhouseandPreschool90151.334.531:5041.2452:35NewRoadsKiddieCollege90153.034.061:5534.1382:30RosenwaldElementarySchool90153.335.961:5534.1382:30RougonElementarySchool*90150.137.311:5034.1382:25WESTFELICIANA,LABainsElementarySchool901514.07.61113:4033.3374:15BainsLowerElementary901514.07.61113:4033.3374:15ChaseMinistries901515.78.21163:4533.3374:20FirstStepDayCare&LearningCenter901514.68.01103:3533.3374:15GracePreschool901515.38.21133:4033.3374:15IntheBeginningChildDevelopmentCenter901512.87.41043:3033.3374:10WestFelicianaHighSchool901514.47.61223:5033.3374:25WestFelicianaMiddleSchool901514.47.11223:5033.3374:25GirlScoutCampMarydale901524.624.5612:5033.3373:25MaximumforEPZ:3:50Maximum:4:25AverageforEPZ:2:40Average:3:20 RiverBendStationES 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)1112010.152.811302:4517.32351048304:45221203.348.94302:3519.52651034304:2511353.350.24302:5019.52651034304:40311204.954.65302:4019.52651038304:304112014.442.220302:5517.32351060305:05113514.447.418303:0517.32351060305:15511207.29.247303:2033.34451063305:556212014.28.699304:1033.34451083307:05213514.29.688304:1533.34451083307:10711206.354.77302:4023.93251047304:4511356.354.57302:5523.93251047305:00841204.333.48302:4033.34451058305:1041354.333.18302:5533.34451058305:2521504.333.58303:1033.34451057305:40931203.510.819302:5033.34451055305:151011208.15.884303:5533.34451066306:3511212024.626.256303:3033.344510110306:50113524.626.855303:4533.344510110307:05MaximumETE:4:15MaximumETE:7:10AverageETE:3:10AverageETE:5:35 RiverBendStationES 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 RiverBendStation1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheRiverBendStation(RBS),locatedinWestFelicianaParish,LA.ETEprovideStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionEntergyemergencyplanningpersonnelMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagencies.ObtainRBSEmergencyPreparednessPlan,PreviousRBSETEReportEastFeliciana,WestFeliciana,WestBatonRouge,EastBatonRougeandPointeCoupeeParishesMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagencies,ObtainspecialeventdataLouisianaDepartmentofEnvironmentalQualityObtainLouisianaPeacetimeRadiologicalResponsePlanLocalandStatePoliceAgenciesObtainexistingtrafficmanagementplans,obtainspecialfacilitydatafortransients1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:

RiverBendStation1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromEntergy.b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromEastFeliciana,WestFeliciana,WestBatonRouge,EastBatonRougeandPointeCoupeeParishes,LouisianaDepartmentofEnvironmentalAction,LouisianaGovernor'sOfficeofHomelandSecurityandEmergencyPreparednessandstateandlocalpolicetoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatrafficconditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andShadowRegion.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromthe2010census.e. ReanalyzedpreviousrandomtelephonesamplesurveyofEPZresidents.f. Reviewandtabulateddatadescribingschools,specialfacilities,majoremployers,transportationproviders,andotherimportantinformation.2. EstimateddistributionsofTripGenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelepho nesurvey.3. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.4. Reviewedtheexistingtrafficmanagementplantobeimplementedbylocalandstatepoliceintheeventofanincidentattheplant.Trafficcontrolisappliedatspecif iedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. UsedexistingPAStodefineEvacuationRegions.TheEPZispartitionedinto18PASalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguousPA SforwhichETEarecalculated.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsat"Speci alFacilities"andfortransit dependentpersonsathome.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystem.a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,Entergyandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapa cityManual(HCM 1)1HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.

RiverBendStation1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelink noderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.e. Specifiedselectedcand idatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationoftheEntergy.8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltodetermineoptimalevacuat ionroutingandcomputeETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,medicalfacilities,etc.),forthetransit dependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.1.2 TheRiverBendStationLocationTheRiverBendStationislocatedalongtheMississippiRiverinWestFelicianaParish,Louisiana.Thesiteisapproximately30milesnorthwestofBatonRouge,LA.TheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)consistsofpartsofEastFeliciana,WestFeliciana,WestBatonRouge,EastBatonRougeandPointeCoupeeParishes.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingtheRBS.Thismapidentifiesthecommunitiesintheareaandthemajorroads.

RiverBendStation1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.RBSLocation RiverBendStation1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewaysections,avalueof2250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe RiverBendStation1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereob served,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpre timed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertaken2008togatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateelementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).

RiverBendStation1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.RBSLink NodeAnalysisNetwork RiverBendStation1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DT A),modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbased,anddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuati onTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationoftheRBS.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthat RiverBendStation1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1aredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthesecountermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththe2008study.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: Vehicleoccupancyandtrip generationratesar ebasedontheresultsofatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Voluntaryandshadowevacuationsof20%areconsidered. Highwayrepresentationisfarmoredetailed. Dynamicevacuationmodelingused.Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasis2000USCensusData;Population=25,000ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused.Population=25,592ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancy2.52persons/household,1.53evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:1.65persons/vehicle.2.52persons/household,1.53evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:1.65persons/vehicle.EmployeePopulationEmployeestreatedasseparatepopulationgroup.EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZbytheParishemergencymanagementstaffandbydirectphonecallstomajoremployers.1.00employees/vehiclebasedonphonesurveyresults.Employees=1,875EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZintheRiverBendResourcesDataBook,supplementedbyinformationfromtheU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsinteractivewebsite.1.00employeespervehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults.Employees=2,543 RiverBendStation1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTransitDependentPopulationEstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Atotalof892peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring30busestoevacuate.EstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Atotalof926peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring31busestoevacuate.Anadditional8homeboundspecialneedspersonsneededspecialtransportationtoevacuateall8requireawheelchairaccessiblevehicle.TransientPopulationTransientestimatesbasedoninformationfromparishandlocaltourismwebsitesandsupplementedwithtelephonecallsaswellasinformationprovidedinthepreviousreport.Transients=3,616TransientestimatesbaseduponinformationprovidedabouttransientattractionsinEPZlistedintheRiverBendResourcesDataBook,supplementedbyobservationsofthefacilitiesduringtheroadsurvey.Transients=4,389SpecialFacilitiesPopulationSpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachparishwithintheEPZ.SpecialFacilityPopulation=2,178Vehiclesoriginatingatspecialfacilities=747SpecialfacilitypopulationofmedicalandcorrectionalfacilitiesbasedoninformationlistedintheRiverBendResourcesDataBook.Currentcensus=2,721BusesRequired=89Vanrequired=1WheelchairBusRequired=9AmbulancesRequired=7SchoolPopulationSchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachparishwithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=5,831Vehiclesoriginatingatschools=109SchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbytheRiverBendDataResourcesBook.School(andevacuatingdaycare)enrollment=6,508Busesrequired=116VoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuated50percentofpopulationwithinthecircularportionoftheregion;35percent,inannularringbetweenthecircleandtheEPZboundary 20percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)

RiverBendStation1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyShadowEvacuation30%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheshadowarea20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFigure7 2)NetworkSize690links;530nodes826links;597nodesRoadwayGeometricDataFieldsurveysconductedin2007.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2000HCM.FieldsurveysconductedinMarch2010.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter.DirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter.Ridesharing50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.TripGenerationforEvacuationBasedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and330minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and300minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and150minutes.Alltimesmeasuredfromtheadvisorytoevacuate.Basedonresi dentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and270minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween5and150minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween5and105minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherNormalorRain.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrain.NormalorRain.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrain.ModelingIDYNEVSystem:TRADandPC DYNEVDYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.15.0SpecialEventsConstructionofthenewRBSSite.MardiGrasCelebrationinNewRoads.SpecialEventPopulation=67,924additionaltransientsEvacuationCases27Regionsand11Scenariosproducing297uniquecases.36Regionsand12Scenariosproducing432uniquecases.

RiverBendStation1 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyEvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedfor50th,90th,95th,and100thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90 thand100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZ,90 thpercentileWinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:3:00SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:2:40WinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:3:10SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:2:50 RiverBendStation2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.2.1 DataEstimates1. PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebasedupondataobtainedfromtheU.S.CensusBureau,CenterforEconomicStudiesandsurveysofmajoremployersintheEPZ.3. PopulationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromtheRiverBendDataResourcesBook.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCa pacityManual2010.5. PopulationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanalysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. Therelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromthetelephonesurvey.Averagevaluesof2.52personsperhouseholdand1.53evacuatingvehiclespe rhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandemployeesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.03employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. Parks:VehicleoccupancyvariesbasedupondatalistedintheRBSDataResourcesBook.c. SpecialEvents:DataprovidedbythePointeCoupeeParishfortheNewRoadsMardiGrascelebrationindicatesthatvehiclesonaveragehave4peoplepervehicleisusedtoestimatethenumberofvehicles.

RiverBendStation2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofPASthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002.3. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.4. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyofthePASincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.5. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).6. Atotalof12"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherco nditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareoutlinedinTable2 1.7. Scenario12considerstheclosureofasinglelanesouthboundonUS61fromtheSt.FrancisvillebordertotheEPZboundaryatthenearestintersectionofSR964.8. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 1).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.1Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.

RiverBendStation2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11WinterWeekendMiddayGoodMardiGrasFestivalinNewRoads,LA12SummerWeekendMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonUS61SB2Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

RiverBendStation2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology RiverBendStation2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccidentthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedwithinatimelymannerfollowingthesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofPASformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 59percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1co mmuter;64percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore38percent(59%x64%=38%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacuationtrip.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderationof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.5. AccessControlPoints(ACP)willbestaffedwithinapproximately120minutesfollowingthesirennotifications,todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofACPlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis120minutetimeperiod.6. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningattheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytrav elerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.

RiverBendStation2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17. Buseswillbeusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedreceptioncenter.b. Ifdaycaresareinsession,transportationwillbeprovidedbythecentersandevacuatedtothedesignatedreceptioncenter.c. Buses,wheelchairvansandambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoReceptionCenters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolisinsession,aregivenpriorityinassignin gtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredround trips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.8. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthegeneralpopulationtoreceptioncentersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillride sharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 3 ,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.9. Onetypeofadverseweatherscenarioisconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios.Itisassumedthattherainbeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepres entintheEPZisassumed.Itisassumedthatroadsarepassable.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 4;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.

3InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswithotherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).4Agarwal,M.et.Al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.

RiverBendStation2 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport60studentsperbusforelementaryschoolsand60studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedondataprovidedintheRiverBendDataResourcesBook.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30peopleperbus.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationRain90%90%NoEffect*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.

RiverBendStation3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsoftheRiverBendStationEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythreedistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetobusinesseswithintheEPZonadailybasis.EstimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachPASandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationrose).TheRiverBendStationEPZissubdivi dedinto18PAS.TheEPZisshowninFigure3 1.

RiverBendStation3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.52persons/household-SeeFigureF 1)andthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.53vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 7)wereadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.TheestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbythePASandEPZboundaries.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatewhatthepopulationiswithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacrossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ,byPASbasedonthismethodology.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaveragehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable3 2.Figure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromtheRiverBendStation.This"rose"wasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbeargue dthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductioncanbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforatwoweekperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasi s,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.

RiverBendStation3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.RBSEPZ RiverBendStation3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationPAS2000Population2010Population163666923,4903,37733245014105965212662,0482,184770490188159459310104,1512,488113111,80312198393132,0402,6351418022315625516576338171,6821,703188,0057,875TOTAL25,00025,592EPZPopulationGrowth:2.37%

RiverBendStation3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPASPAS2010Population2010ResidentVehicles166940523,3772,0483501305496585261562,1841,3287901548815109310188102,4881,507111,8031,09512393238132,6351,6001422313515553416338206171,7031,036187,8754,778TOTAL25,59215,534 RiverBendStation3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector RiverBendStation3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector RiverBendStation3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromtheRiverBendStation(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuationvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthatfortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesN441268NNE222136NE911555ENE1,7771,078E1,619980ESE6,0603,673SE13,3768,124SSE1,208734S1,486903SSW2,3131,403SW1,459882WSW580353W21WNWNW7746NNW413250TOTAL31,94419,386 RiverBendStation3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector RiverBendStation3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector RiverBendStation3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.TheRiverBendStationEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiesthatattracttransients,including: LodgingFacilities Campground&Parks GolfCourses HistoricalSit es HuntingCamps RiverCruises-St.Francisville TechnicalCollegesTransientdataiscollectedandmaintainedbylocalParishandRBSemergencyplanningpersonnelandstoredinthecomprehensiveRive rBendStationDataResourcesBook.Thisresourcebookisthesourceofalldataunlessotherwisenoted.ThepublishdataontheresourcebookusedwasMarch2012.TherearesevenlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZhavereportedatotalof762transientsin429vehicles.ThesenumbershavebeenassignedtolodgingfacilitiesintheEPZ.ThereisonecampgroundandonemajorparkareathatdrawsatransientpopulationtotheEPZ.Atotalof137transientsand73vehicleshavebeenassignedtothecampgroundandparkareawithintheEPZ.TherearetwogolfcourseswithintheEPZ.TheBeaverValleyGolfCoursewassurveyedtodeterminethenumberofgolfersan dvehiclesatthefacilityonatypicalpeakday,andthenumberofgolfersthattravelsfromoutsidethearea.Thesecondcourse,FalseRiverGolfandCountryClubestimateswereprovidedintheRBSDataResourcesBook.Atotalof141transientsand77vehiclesareassignedtogolfcourseswithintheEPZ.TherearesevenhistoricalsiteswithintheEPZandhavereportedtotalsof2,294transientsin720vehicles.ThesenumbershavebeenassignedforhistoricalsitesintheEPZ.InadditiontotheRB SDataResourcesBook,WestFelicianaParishSheriff'sDepartmentprovidedanextensivelistofhuntingcampswithintheEPZ.Theestimatednumberoftransientsis435and203vehicleshavebeenassignedtohuntingcampswithintheEPZ.SeveralrivercruisesdockinSt.Francisvilleandallowpatronstotourlocalhistoricalsites.Theestimatednumberoftransientsforthesecruisesis400transientson7tourbusesor14vehicles.TheLouisianaTechnicalCollege,asmallcommutertechnicalschool,hastwobranchcampuseswithintheRBSEPZ.Thecampusesreportasmallnumberofstudents,140attheJumonvilleCampus(PA S18)and80attheFolkesCampus(PAS10).Thesestudentshaveasimilartravel RiverBendStation3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1patternthatofcommutingtransientsandhavebeenincludedwiththetransientsrosediagramsinFigure3 6andFigure3 7aswellasTable3 4.InTable3 7andTable3 8,theyhavebeenallocatedtheirowncolumnandarenotdoublecountedwithintheschoolsandtransients.InSection8,Table8 2thecollegesarealsolistedasschools;noETEhasbeenprovidedforthemasstudentshavetheirowntransportation.Eachstudentreportshavingtheirownvehicl eand220vehicleshavebeenaddedtothenetwork.AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE 5presentsthenumberoftransien tsvisitingrecreationalareas,whileTableE 6presentsthenumberoftransientsathuntingcamps.LodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZarepresentedinTableE 7.Table3 4presentstransientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbyPAS.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddist ancefromtheplant.Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesPASTransientsTransientVehicles11,66737421,2864523124458040619195718713889278146101388811121396321415161718374287TOTAL4,3891,736 RiverBendStation3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector RiverBendStation3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector RiverBendStation3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.4 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.TotalnumberofemployeesformajoremployerswasalsoprovidedintheRBSDataResourcesBook.TheU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployer HouseholdDynamicsinteractivewebsitewasusedtoobtaininformationregardingem ployeesworkingwithintheEPZ,butresidingoutside.Itwasdeterminedthatanaverageof66%ofEmployeesworkingwithintheEPZliveoutside(Non EPZfactor).InTableE 4,theEmployees(MaxShift)ismultipliedbythepercentNon EPZfactortodeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.03employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(SeeFigureF 6)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajoremployers,excepttheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineerswhomprovidedspecificvehicleoccupancyfactors.Table3 5presentsnon EPZResidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbyPAS.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector.

RiverBendStation3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesPASEmployeesEmployeeVehicles144643322542173427726956557141481313920191048747211208202121314376365151615114717333218365355TOTAL2,6492,543 RiverBendStation3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector RiverBendStation3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector RiverBendStation3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 MedicalFacilitiesTherearetenmedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.DatawasalsoprovidedforeachofthemedicalfacilitiesintheRBSDataResourcesBook.TableE 3inAppendixEsummarizesthedatagathered.Section8detailstheevacuationofmedicalfacilitiesandtheirpatients.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesth atneedtobeprovideddependonthepatients'stateofhealth.Itisestimatedthatbusescantransportupto30people;wheelchairvans,upto4people;wheelchairbusesupto15people;andambulances,upto2people.3.6 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopu lationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(external externaltrips)atthetimeofanaccident.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.ThesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ-USHWY61,SR190andSR19.Itisassumedthatthi strafficwillcontinuetoentertheEPZduringthefirst120minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.TheAADTwasmultipliedbytheK Fact or,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby2hours(accesscontrolpoints-ACP-areassumedtobeactivatedat120minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,th ereare8,240vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternal externaltripspriortotheactivationoftheACPandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and10)asdiscussedinSection6.3.7 SpecialEventOnespecialevent(Scenario11)isconsideredfortheETEstudy-theMardiGrasCelebrationinNewRoads,LA.ThisisalargecelebrationtakingplaceindowntownNewRoadsonMainStreet.DatawasobtainedfromPointeCoupeeParish,RBSEmergencyplanningstaffandlawenforcementpersonnelfortheparish.Approximately80,000peopleattendthiscelebrationwhichtakesplacetheSaturdaybeforeFatTuesday.AccordingtoPointeCoupeeParishemergencymanagementpersonnel,approximately85%ofthe80,000attendeescomefromoutsidetheEPZ.Theaveragevehicleoccupancywasreportedat4personspervehicle.Atotalof67,924peoplein16,981vehicleswereincorporatedatvariousparkinglocationsforthisspecialeventwithinonemileofdowntownNewRoads.Thespecialeventvehicletripsweregeneratedutilizingthesamemobilizationdistributionsfortransients.

RiverBendStation3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.RBSEPZExternalTrafficUpstreamNodeDownstreamNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2DFactor 2HourlyVolumeExternalTraffic8537537US 190Eastbound18,6000.1160.51,0792,1588641641US 190Westbound18,6000.1160.51,0792,1588598598US 61Southbound10,5000.1160.56091,2188153153SR 19Southbound6,3000.1180.5372744TOTAL: 6,2781 HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20122 HCM2010 RiverBendStation3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.8 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandissummarizedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.Thissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissection.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof48,954pe opleand30,466vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.

RiverBendStation3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandPASResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsTechnicalCollegesShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotal1669241,6674462,80623,3771221,286254592,5757,67335011812124655496327737652618010762,1847919152632,7227901331871471,1428151132993101127820619102,488901384876841,008804,975111,803652081,4703,5461239314407132,63595962,82614223837612573215552571633812151100601171,70362334062,204187,8752862343652771,91114010,948Shadow6,3896,389Total25,5929264,1692,6492,7216,2882206,389048,954NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.NOTE:SpecialFacilitiesincludebothmedicalfacilitiesandcorrectionalfacilities.NOTE:TechnicalcollegecampusesarelistedinSection3.3andalsoinTable8 2,butlistedseparatelyinthistable.

RiverBendStation3 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandPASResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsTechnicalCollegesShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotal140523744331,21422,04884522174962,82533052410321458269327515405561,32869551101,44575482138147028101323918814619353101,5076884724838802,239111,0954202981,399122382240131,6006321,638141353656506153434162061474357171,036432141,086184,7782014735539681405,547Shadow3,8776,27810,155Total15,534621,5162,5432042322203,8776,27830,466NOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.NOTE:TechnicalcollegecampusesarelistedinSection3.3andalsoinTable8 2,butlistedseparatelyinthistable.

RiverBendStation4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,fog,windspeed)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)

RiverBendStation4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentforrain.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacitymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeintersectionswhereflowca nbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsorturnbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobe comethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theex istingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedintheparishemergencyplansareextensiveandwereadoptedwithoutchange.Theperlanecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutes RiverBendStation4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1movement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecutingmovement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycl e;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:

2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 RiverBendStation4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexityofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity RiverBendStation4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.

RiverBendStation4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtotheRiverBendStationStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade) FreewaysEachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15Twolanero adscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"ClassI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A RiverBendStation4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 FreewaysRef:HCMChapters10,11,12,13Chapter10oftheHCM2010describesaprocedureforintegratingtheresultsobtainedinChapters11,12and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewa ycomponents.Chapter10alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomaticallyperformsthisintegrationprocess.Chapter11oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSfor"BasicFreewaySegments".Exhibit11 17oftheHCM2010presentscapacit yvs.freespeedestimates,whichareprovidedbelow.FreeSpeed(mph):55606570+Per LaneCapacity(pc/h):2250230023502400Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,free speedsandcapacitybasedonfieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtime varyingspeedsbasedondemand:capacityrelationships.Aconservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof2250pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyforfreeways,asshowninAppendixK.Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapa city,speed,densityandLOSforfreewayweavingsections.Thesimulationmodelcontainslogicthatrelatesspeedtodemandvolume:capacityratio.ThevalueofcapacityobtainedfromthecomputationalproceduresdetailedinChapter12dependsonthe"Type"andgeometricsoftheweavingsegmentan donthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).Chapter13oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacitiesoframpsandof"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofarampfreewayjunction:Thecapacityofthefreewayimmediatelydownstreamofanon ramporimmediatelyupstreamofanoff ramp;thecapacityoftheramproadway;andthemaximumflowrateenteringtherampinfluencearea.Inmostcases,thefreewaycapacityisthecontrollingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit13 8oftheHCM2010,anddependonthenumberoffreewaylanesandonthefreewayfreespeed.RampcapacityispresentedinExhibit13 10andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficinaccordwiththeproceduresinCh apter13oftheHCM2010.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemandrelativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly).

RiverBendStation4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3.4 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Whereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersect ionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuat edsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contra flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChap ter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"ThesystemunderstudyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.Itisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicat ethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantof RiverBendStation4 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink. Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams RiverBendStation5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREGCR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundIngeneral,anaccidentatanuclearpowerplantischaracterizedbythefollowingEmergencyClassificationLevels(seeAppendix1ofNUREG0654fordetails):1. UnusualEvent2. Alert3. SiteAreaEmergency4. GeneralEmergencyAteachlevel,theFederalguidelinesspecifyasetofActionstobeundertakenbyth eLicensee,andbyStateandLocaloffsiteauthorities.AsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingaccidentwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedinatimelymannerfollowingthesirennotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterth esirennotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Itislikelythatalongertimewillel apsebetweenthevariousclassesofanemergency.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthiscase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhenth eAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenalert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.

RiverBendStation5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthantheestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Theno tificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,andloudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately311squaremilesandisengagedinawidevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromonei ndividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevacuationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertr avelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivingnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbyteleph one,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.Itisimportanttonotethattheshapeanddurationoftheevacuationtripmobilizationdistributionisimportantatsiteswheretrafficcongestionisnotexpectedtocausetheevacuationtimeestimatetoextendintimewellbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Theremainingdiscussionwillfocusonth eapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.

RiverBendStation5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.Ahousehold RiverBendStation5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1withintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbeforebeginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowtheseco ndsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweekendsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).TransientswillalwaysfollowoneofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicat edway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprecedingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthisstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccu rstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.

RiverBendStation5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time RiverBendStation5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Inaccordancewiththe2012FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessProgramManual,100%ofthepopulationisnotifiedwithin45minutes.Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)that87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified0 0%5 7%10 13%15 27%20 47%25 66%30 87%35 92%40 97%45 100%

RiverBendStation5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00%4586%533%5087%1047%5588%1558%6096%2065%7598%2566%9099%3079%105100%3580%4081%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.

RiverBendStation5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome004587%516%5089%1031%5590%1540%6095%2050%7597%2553%9099%3068%10599%3572%120100%4078%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response

RiverBendStation5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate00%1525%3056%4561%6079%7586%9087%10588%12094%13597%15097%16597%18099%195100%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response RiverBendStation5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210 PercentofPopulationCompletingMobilizationActivityElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHome RiverBendStation5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table5 6presentsthesummingpr oceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 6.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5Table5 7presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.

RiverBendStation5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).5.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor500responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnonparametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciples RiverBendStation5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1areused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 6,Table57);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles;4) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterth an3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.

RiverBendStation5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3.6) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bo thveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,no ta"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturning).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,usingweightingbaseduponthe0.0%10.0%20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

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90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.5 37.542.547.5 52.557.567.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution RiverBendStation5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1probabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,C,D.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,C,Dproperlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother,aretabulatedinTable5 8(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(15)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.

RiverBendStation5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAScomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. PAScomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethe2mileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinPASbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoption savailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthePAScomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*,isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltrip saregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance).

RiverBendStation5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenon sheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*is2:15forallscenarios.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersFigure5 5presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommuters;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeis135minutesforgoodweather.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,20%ofthepopulation(whonormallywouldhavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesforanun stagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationtime,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 9providesthetripgenerationhistogramsforstagedevacuation.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreasAsindicatedinTable5 2,thisstudyassumes100%notificationin45minutes.Table5 9indicatesth atalltransientswillhavemobilizedwithin13/4hours.Itisassumedthatthistimeframeissufficienttimeforboaters,campersandothertransientstoreturntotheirvehiclesandbegintheirevacuationtrip.

RiverBendStation5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*Employees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1155%5%0%2%21527%27%0%12%31531%31%3%24%41517%17%7%19%5159%9%12%12%6157%7%13%12%7152%2%14%5%8151%1%12%2%9151%1%10%3%10300%0%13%6%11300%0%8%1%12300%0%4%2%13300%0%2%0%14300%0%2%0%156000%0%0%0%NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionsCforgoodweather. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.

RiverBendStation5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommuters RiverBendStation5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1150%0%2150%3%3151%5%4151%3%5152%3%6153%2%7153%1%8152%1%9152%0%101570%79%11308%1%12304%2%13302%0%14302%0%156000%0%*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 8)isthesameforUnstagedandStagedEvacuation.

RiverBendStation5 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300330

%ofPopulationEvacuatingElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommutersStagedResidentswithnoCommuters RiverBendStation6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingPASthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergenc y.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Atotalof36Regionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupi ngsofPASconsidered.TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable6 1.ThePASconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesectorbasedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thece ntralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesfromtheplant(RegionsR04throughR13)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR14throughR25).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,respect ively.RegionsR26throughR36areidenticaltoRegionsR02,andR04throughR13,respectively;however,thosePASbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2 mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.Atotalof12ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thu s,thereareatotalof36x12=432evacuationcases.Table6 2isadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeachscenario.Table6 4presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThevehicleestimatespresentedinSection3arepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentages;thescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 3,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.Th epercentagespresentedinTable6 3weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof59%(thenumberofhouseholdswithatleastonecommuter)and64%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommuterthatwouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.Employmen tisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedon RiverBendStation6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedtha tonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeakduringwinterweekendsand50%ofthispeaklevelduringwinterweekdays.AsshowninAppendixE,thereareasignificantnumberofhistoricalsiteswhichdrawalargenumberofpeople;thus,transientactivityisestimatedtobehighat100%duringthemiddayhours.Transientactivityonsummerweekendsisestimatedtobe15%.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 3,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheshadowregionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshadowregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 4forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:Onespecialevent-MardiGrasCelebrationinNewRoads-wasconsideredasScenario11.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario11,and0%forallotherscenarios.Itisestimatedthatsummerschoolenrollmentisapproximately10%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearforsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Schoolisno tinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbuse sforthetransit dependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentpopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.

RiverBendStation6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAS123456789 101112131415161718R012mileringXR025 mileringXXXXX XXR03FullEPZXXXX X X X X X XXXXXXXXXEvacuate2mileringand5milesdownwindRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS123456789 101112131415161718R04N,NNEXXXR05NEXXR06ENEXXXR07E,ESEXXXX XR08SE,SSEXXXR09SXXXXR10SSWXXXR11SW,WSWXXR12WXXXXR13WNW,NW,NNWXXEvacuate5mileringanddownwindtoEPZboundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS123456789 101112131415161718R14N,NNEXXXX X X X X X XXR15NE,ENEXXXX X X X X XXXR16EXXXX XX X X XXXXXR17ESEXXXX XX XXXXXXR18SEXXXX XX XXXXXXR19SSEXXXX XX XXXXXXXR20SXXXX XX XXXXXXR21SSWXXXX XX XXXXXR22SW,WSWXXXX XX XXXXR23WXXXX X XX XXXR24WNW,NWXXXX X XX XXR25NNWXXXX X X X X XX RiverBendStation6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS123456789 101112131415161718R265MileRingXXXXX XXR27N,NNEXXXR28NEXXR29ENEXXXR30E,ESEXXXX XR31SE,SSEXXXR32SXXXXR33SSWXXXR34SW,WSWXXR35WXXXXR36WNW,NW,NNWXXShelter inPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateArea(s)Shelter in PlaceArea(s)Evacuate RiverBendStation6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.RBSEPZPAS RiverBendStation6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone9WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone10WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone11WinterWeekendMiddayGoodMardiGrasFestivalinNewRoads,LA12SummerWeekendMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonUS61SB1Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

RiverBendStation6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployees TransientsShadowSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic138%62%96%10%23%0%10%100%100%238%62%96%10%23%0%10%100%100%34%96%10%15%20%0%0%100%100%44%96%10%15%20%0%0%100%100%54%96%10%5%20%0%0%100%40%638%62%100%50%23%0%100%100%100%738%62%100%50%23%0%100%100%100%84%96%10%100%20%0%0%100%100%94%96%10%100%20%0%0%100%100%104%96%10%26%20%0%0%100%40%114%96%10%100%20%100%0%100%100%1238%62%96%10%23%0%10%100%100%ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees..................................................EPZemployeeswholiveoutsidetheEPZTransients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow......................................................Resid entsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshow nisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTraffic.............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbyaccesscontrolapproximately2hoursaftertheevacuationbegins.

RiverBendStation6 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadow SpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles 15,8689,6662,4411524,486451676,27829,10325,8689,6662,4411524,486451676,27829,103358714,9472542273,9411676,27826,401458714,9472542273,9411676,27826,401558714,947254 763,9411672,51122,48365,8689,6662,5437584,5124521676,27830,24475,8689,6662,5437584,5124521676,27830,244858714,9472541,5163,9411676,27827,690958714,9472541,5163,9411676,27827,6901058714,9472543943,9411672,51122,8011158714,9472541,5163,94116,9811676,27844,671125,8689,6662,4411524,486451676,27829,103Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)

RiverBendStation7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover36regionswithintheRBSEPZandthe12EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTabl e7 4.Table7 5definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZinPASforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevoluntaryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendationhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithinth eimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEfortheRBSEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpeoplelocatedinPASoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,ar eassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedthat20percentofthosepeopleintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof31,944peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4fo rthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion,travelingawayfromtheRBSlocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingevacuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculat ionsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAScomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.2. PAScomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared.

RiverBendStation7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofthe2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 9illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthewinter,weekend,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario6).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedinthesefiguresbyathickredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.Congestiondevelopsrapidlyaroundconcentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecks.Figure7 3displaysthedevelopingcongestionwithinJacksontotheeastofRBSjust35minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).Trafficisop eratingataLOSofDorbetterinNewRoads.AtonehouraftertheATE,Figure7 4displaysfully developedcongestioninJackson,whichbacksupalongSR10towithin5milesoftheplant.Approachroadwa ystoSR10arealsoataLOSF.ThroughouttheEPZandshadow,therearenumerousstop controlledapproachesthatarecongestedandthesignalonSR19atPortHudsonPrideRoadisoperatingatLOSFdueto RiverBendStation7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1heavydemandfromboththewestandnorth.TheprimaryevacuationrouteforPAS2,5,6,7and10,travelsalongSR10throughJacksontotheintersectionwithSR19.AtSR19evacuationroutingencouragestherightturnontoSR19totravelsouthboundtowardsBatonRougeandtheReceptionCenters.Tofacilitatemovementsatthisintersection,itissuggestedthatitbemadeaTrafficControlPointanditismodeledasoneinthisstudy(seeAppendixGformoredetails).AtthesignalizedintersectionofSR78andSR1intheshadowregionnearthesmalltownofOscar,trafficisoperatingataLOSFonthesout hboundapproach.At1:30aftertheATE,asshowninFigure7 5,thecongestioninJacksonalongSR10ispersistingandextendsfromtheboundaryoftheEPZtotheintersectionwithBainesRoad,attheedgeofthe5 mileRegion.ThereiscongestionalongtheapproachestothemajorevacuationrouteofUS190inPointeCoupeeParishandalsoalongSR19inEastBatonRougeParish,aspeopleevacuatesouthtowardsBatonRouge.FullycongestedconditionsremainintheJacksonarea2:40aftertheATE(Figure7 6).Th econgestioninNewRoadshascleared;however,thestop controlledapproachesofSR 978andSR983toSR1,intheshadow,haveacontinuallevelofserviceFuntiltheyfinallyclearat3:10aftertheATE(Figure7 7).At3:35aftertheATE(Figure7 8),SR10throughJacksonhasbeguntoclear,butisstilloperatingataLOSF.AshortsectionofSR19inZacharyisalsostillatLOSF.TheareawestoftheMississippiRiverinPointCoupeeandWestBatonRougeParishhasclea redandtrafficalongUS190ismovingfreelyatLOSA.Finally,Figure7 9displaysthatby4:20aftertheATEthelastoftheevacuatingvehiclescanmoveatfree flowspeedthroughouttheEPZ.TheloneremnantofcongestionisintheShadowRegiontoth eeast,ontheapproachestoSR 19fromJackson.Alltrafficcongestionwithinthenetworkclearsby4:30aftertheATE,whichis15minutesbeforethecompletionofthetrip generation(mobilization)time.7.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 10throughFigure7 21.Thesefiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflo wsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioconsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 10,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegintoevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.

RiverBendStation7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeunti ltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1andTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall36EvacuationRegionsandall12EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3andTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2Mileregionforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Thetablesareorganizedasfollows:TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 9Mostofthecongestionislocatedinsubareas7,10and18whicharebeyondthe5 milearea;thisisreflectedintheETEstatistics: The90 thpercentileETEforRegionsR01andR02(2and5 mileareas)arecomparableandrangebetween2:15(hr:min)and2:30. The90 thpercentileETEforRegionsR03(fullEPZ)andR14-R25(whichextendtotheEPZboundary)canbeupto1hourlongerthantheR02ETEforanon specialeventcase(upto1hourand30minuteslongerforrain).The100 thpercentileETEforallRegionsandforallScenarioscloselyfollowthemobilizationtimes.ThisfactimpliesthatthecongestionwithintheEPZdissipatespriortotheendofmobilization,asisdisplayedinFigure7 9.

RiverBendStation7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ComparisonofScenarios8and11inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-MardiGrascelebrationinNewRoads-hasasignificantimpactontheETEforthe90 thpercentile.Theadditionof16,981vehiclestotheNewRoadsareaincreasesETEbyupto2:45(hr:min)fortheregionsthatincludePAS18.TheincreaseinETEisdueprimarilytocongestionindowntownNewRoadsandthroughtheshadowregionalongSR1.The100 thpercentileETEfortheSpecialEventScenario,Region3,is6:40aftertheATE,whereasforScenario8,the100 thpercentileisreflectiveofmobilizationtimeat4:55aftertheATE.ComparisonofScenarios1and12inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanesouthboundonUS61fromSt.FrancisvilletoSR64attheboundaryoftheEPZ-doesnothaveasignificantimpactonthe90 thpercentileETE.AlthoughtheanimationforScenario12,Region3,doesshowcongestiononUS61thatisnotevidentfortheScenario1,Region3case,theremaininglaneonUS61hasenoughcapacitytohandledemand.EvacuationspeedsalongUS61arereducedinthelaneclosurecasebutatmost5minuteswasaddedtotheETE.7.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3andTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEcompiledfortheconcurrent(un staged)andstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR26throughR36arethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR02,R04throughR 13,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustshowthattheETEforthe2Mileregioncanbereducedwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheregionbetween2milesand5miles.Inallcases,asshowninthesetables,theETEforthe2mileregionis10to30minuteslongerthanaconcurrentevacuation.Stagedevacuationprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinth e2 mileregionsandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles.Whilefailingtoprovideassistancetoevacueesfromwithin2milesoftheGGNS,staginghasanegativeimpactontheETEforthoseevacuatingfromwithinthe5 milearea.AcomparisonofETEbetweenRegionsR26throughR36withR02andR04throughR13revealsthatstagingcanincreasethe90 thpercentileETEforthoseinthe2to5mileareabyupto50minutes(seeTable7 1).ThisextendingofETEisduetothedelayinbeginningtheevacuationtrip,experiencedbythosewhoshelter,plustheeffectofthetripgeneration"spike"(significantvolumeoftrafficbeginningtheevacuationtripatthesametime)thatfollowstheireventualATE,increatingcongestionwithintheEPZareabeyond2miles.The100 thpercentileETEisunchangedbystaging.Insummary,thestagedevacuationprotectiveactionstrategyprovidesnobenefitsandadverselyimpactssomeevacueeslocatedbeyond2milesfromtheRBS.7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:

RiverBendStation7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain* SpecialEvent MardiGrasNewRoads RoadClosure(Al aneclosureonUS61SB)* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhiletheseScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawi nterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(10)forrainapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellingto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuatio nRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewinddirection).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation:towardsN,NNE,NE,-* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.TheapplicabledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(Reg ionR01) To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR13) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R14throughR25)

RiverBendStation7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* EnterTable7 5andidentifytheapplicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthedistancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromtheRBS.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionoftheplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* Identifytherowinthi stablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes.ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionistowardthenorth(N).* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea5 mileradiusanddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 5andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary"forwinddirectiontowardtheN(fromtheS)andreadRegionR14inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR14.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR14;itcontainstheETEvalueof3:30.

RiverBendStation7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR012:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R01R022:252:302:202:202:202:252:252:152:152:202:152:25R02R033:053:152:503:052:553:103:202:553:152:554:503:10R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:252:252:152:202:202:252:252:152:152:202:152:25R04R052:202:202:152:202:202:202:202:152:152:202:152:20R05R062:202:202:152:202:202:202:202:152:152:202:152:20R06R072:252:252:202:202:202:202:252:152:202:202:152:25R07R082:202:252:202:252:252:202:202:152:202:202:152:20R08R092:202:252:202:252:252:202:202:152:202:202:152:20R09R102:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R10R112:152:202:152:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:152:15R11R122:252:252:152:202:202:202:252:102:152:152:102:25R12R132:252:252:152:202:202:202:252:102:152:152:102:25R135 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR143:203:353:103:303:203:303:503:203:453:203:203:20R14R153:053:152:553:002:553:103:203:003:152:553:003:05R15R163:053:102:502:552:503:103:152:553:102:502:553:05R16R172:302:352:202:202:202:302:302:152:202:202:152:30R17R182:302:302:202:202:202:302:302:152:202:202:152:30R18R192:302:352:202:202:202:302:302:152:202:202:152:30R19R202:352:352:202:202:202:302:352:152:202:205:002:35R20R212:352:352:202:202:202:302:352:152:202:205:002:35R21R222:352:352:202:202:202:302:302:152:202:205:002:35R22R232:352:352:202:252:202:302:402:252:352:205:002:35R23 RiverBendStation7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR242:302:302:202:252:202:302:402:252:402:202:252:30R24R253:053:152:503:052:553:153:203:103:202:553:103:05R25StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR263:003:053:003:003:053:003:003:003:003:053:003:00R26R273:053:053:003:003:103:053:053:003:003:053:003:05R27R282:452:452:452:452:452:402:452:402:402:452:402:45R28R292:452:452:452:452:452:402:452:402:402:452:402:45R29R302:452:452:452:452:502:452:452:452:452:452:452:45R30R312:402:402:402:402:452:352:352:352:402:452:352:40R31R322:402:402:402:402:452:402:402:402:402:452:402:40R32R332:352:352:402:402:402:352:352:352:352:402:352:35R33R342:352:352:352:352:402:352:352:352:352:402:352:35R34R352:553:002:552:553:002:553:002:552:553:002:552:55R35R363:003:002:552:553:002:553:002:552:553:002:553:00R36 RiverBendStation7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R01R024:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R02R034:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:556:404:55R032 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R04R054:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R05R064:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R06R074:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R07R084:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R08R094:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R09R104:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R10R114:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R11R124:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R12R134:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R135 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR144:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R14R154:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R15R164:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R16R174:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R17R184:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R18R194:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R19R204:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:556:404:55R20R214:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:556:354:55R21R224:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:556:404:55R22R234:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:556:354:55R23 RiverBendStation7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR244:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R24R254:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R25StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR264:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R26R274:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R27R284:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R28R294:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R29R304:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R30R314:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R31R324:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R32R334:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R33R344:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R34R354:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R35R364:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R36 RiverBendStation7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionR012:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R01UnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR022:202:252:202:202:252:202:202:152:202:202:152:20R02R042:202:252:202:202:252:202:202:152:202:252:152:20R04R052:202:202:152:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:152:20R05R062:202:202:152:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:152:20R06R072:202:202:152:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:152:20R07R082:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R08R092:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R09R102:152:202:152:202:202:152:202:152:152:202:152:15R10R112:152:202:152:202:202:152:152:152:152:202:152:15R11R122:202:252:202:202:252:152:202:152:202:202:152:20R12R132:202:252:202:202:252:202:202:152:202:202:152:20R13StagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR262:402:452:452:452:452:402:402:452:452:452:452:40R26R272:402:452:452:452:452:402:402:452:452:452:452:40R27R282:302:352:302:352:402:302:302:302:302:402:302:30R28R292:302:352:302:352:402:302:302:302:302:402:302:30R29R302:302:352:302:352:402:302:302:302:302:402:302:30R30R312:302:302:302:302:352:252:302:252:252:352:252:30R31R322:302:302:302:302:352:252:302:252:252:352:252:30R32R332:302:302:302:302:352:252:302:252:252:352:252:30R33R342:302:302:302:302:352:252:302:252:252:352:252:30R34R352:402:452:452:452:452:402:402:402:402:452:402:40R35R362:402:452:452:452:452:402:402:402:452:452:402:40R36 RiverBendStation7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)Scenario:RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayRegionGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R01UnstagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR024:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R02R044:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R04R054:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R05R064:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R06R074:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R07R084:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R08R094:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R09R104:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R10R114:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R11R124:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R12R134:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R13StagedEvacuation 2MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR264:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R26R274:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R27R284:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R28R294:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R29R304:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R30R314:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R31R324:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R32R334:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R33R344:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R34R354:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R35R364:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R36 RiverBendStation7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAS123456789 101112131415161718R012mileringXR025 mileringXXXXX XXR03FullEPZXXXX X X X X X XXXXXXXXXEvacuate2mileringand5milesdownwindRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS123456789 101112131415161718R04N,NNEXXXR05NEXXR06ENEXXXR07E,ESEXXXX XR08SE,SSEXXXR09SXXXXR10SSWXXXR11SW,WSWXXR12WXXXXR13WNW,NW,NNWXXEvacuate5mileringanddownwindtoEPZboundaryRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS123456789 101112131415161718R14N,NNEXXXX X X X X X XXR15NE,ENEXXXX XX X X XXXR16EXXXX XX X X XXXXXR17ESEXXXX XX XXXXXXR18SEXXXX XX XXXXXXR19SSEXXXX XX XXXXXXXR20SXXXX XX XXXXXXR21SSWXXXX XX XXXXXR22SW,WSWXXXX XX XXXXR23WXXXX X XX XXXR24WNW,NWXXXX X XX XXR25NNWXXXX X X X X XX RiverBendStation7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionTowardPAS123456789 101112131415161718R265MileRingXXXXX XXR27N,NNEXXXR28NEXXR29ENEXXXR30E,ESEXXXX XR31SE,SSEXXXR32SXXXXR33SSWXXXR34SW,WSWXXR35WXXXXR36WNW,NW,NNWXXShelter inPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateArea(s)Shelter in PlaceArea(s)Evacuate RiverBendStation7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology RiverBendStation7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.RBSShadowRegion RiverBendStation7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat35MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate RiverBendStation7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate RiverBendStation7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat1Hour,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate RiverBendStation7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2Hours,50MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate RiverBendStation7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat3HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate RiverBendStation7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat3Hours,35MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate RiverBendStation7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 9.CongestionPatternsat4Hours,20MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate RiverBendStation7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

RiverBendStation7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

RiverBendStation7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

RiverBendStation7 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario8)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

RiverBendStation7 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario10)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

RiverBendStation7 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure721.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400306090120150180210240270300330360390420450480 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

RiverBendStation8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles.Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschools,medica lfacilities,andcorrectionalfacilities;and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepres entsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilit yTheseactivitiesconsumetime.Basedondiscussionwiththeoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbusmobilizationtimewillaverageapproximately90minutesextendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizat ionactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointheirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentpublicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsoftheRiverBendStationEPZindicatesthatschoolchildrenwillbeevacuatedtoreceptioncentersatemergencyactionlevelsofSiteAreaEmergencyorhigher,andthatparentsshouldpickschoolchildrenupatthereceptioncenters.AsdiscussedinSection2,thisstudyassumesafastbreakinggeneralemergency.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtothereceptioncenters.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,del ayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.Childrenatday carece nterswillbetransportedtoreceptioncentersbydaycaresandwillbepickedupbyparentsorguardiansatthereceptioncenter.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions RiverBendStation8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtothereceptioncenters8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailabl eatthetimetheevacuationisadvised.Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.Table8 1presentsestimatesoftransit dependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransit dependentpersonswillevacuatebyride sharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedarid ewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransit dependentpersonsisbasedonanestimateofaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transi tvehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60childrenonaverage(roughlyequivalentto40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthenumberof"adultseats"takenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverageloadfactoranticipatedis(27/40)x100=68percent.Thus,iftheactualdemandforserviceexceedstheestimatesofTable8 1by50percent,th edemandforservicecanstillbeaccommodatedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.Table8 1indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor926people.Therefore,atotalof31busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.

RiverBendStation8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorride share,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheRiverBendStationEPZ:Where,A=PercentofhouseholdswithcommutersC=Percentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter Thesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(1.89avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(6.8%)willevacuatebypublictransitorride share.Theterm10,156(numberofhouseholds)x0.068x1.89,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(24.3%),whoareathome,equal(1.77 1).ThenumberofHHwherethecomm uterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(10,156x0.243x0.59x0.36),as59%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,36%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(44.8%),whoareathome,equal(2.69-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto10,156x0.448x(0.59x0.36)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehi cles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.Theestimateoftransit dependentpopulationinTable8 1farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransit dependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbytheparishes(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR 6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajorityofthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

RiverBendStation8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 2presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZforthe2011 2012schoolyear.ThisinformationwasfoundwithintheRBSDataResourcesBookprovided.ThecolumninTable8 2entitled"BusesRequired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(asdiscussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR 7002),th eestimateofbusesrequiredforschoolevacuationdonotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto60forallbusesaspertheRBSDataResourcesBook.* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacu ateintheirprivatevehicles.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.ItisrecommendedthattheparishesintheEPZintroduceprocedureswherebytheschoolsarecontactedpriortothedispatchofbusesfromthedepot,toascertainthecurrentestimateofstudentstobeevacuated.Inthisway,th enumberofbusesdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Theneedforbuseswouldbereducedbyanyhighschoolstudentswhohaveevacuatedusingprivateautomobiles(ifpermittedbyschoolauthorities).Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuateschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoride sharing.Table8 3presentsalistoftheschoolreceptioncentersforeachschoolintheEPZ.Student swillbetransportedtothesereceptioncenterswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.Thesereceptioncentersalsohappentobethesamelocationasthegeneralpopulationreceptioncenters.8.3 MedicalFacilityDemandTable8 4presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.1,100peopl ehavebeenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,thesefacilities.ThecapacityandcurrentcensusforeachfacilitywasprovidedwithintheRBSDataResourcesBook.Thisdataincludesthenumberofambulatory,wheelchair boundandbedriddenpatientsateachfacility.ThetransportationrequirementsforthemedicalfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable8 4.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingthat2patientscanbeaccommodatedperambulancetrip;thenumberofwheelchairbusrunsassumes15wheelchairspertripandthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientspertrip.

RiverBendStation8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetimeoftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhat"inefficient",orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,theETEforthetransit dependentpopulationwillbecalculatedforbothaonewavetransitevacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandthi sdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransit dependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinapositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthepick uppoints.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortransittripsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure8 1presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure8 1.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Itisassumedthatforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergencywithnoobservableindicationbeforethefact,schoolbusdriverswouldlikelyrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransit dependentfacilities.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerinadverseweather-100minuteswhenraining.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)Basedondiscussionswithoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof15minutes(20minutesforrain)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapick uproute(transit dependentbusroutes)estimationoftraveltimemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpick uppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:s=v 2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservicepassengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s, RiverBendStation8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespick uptimeperbusrunimplies30st opsperrun,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;totalloadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbyEntergyandtheParishesandaresummarizedinTable8 5.Alsoincludedinthetablearethenumberofbusesneededtoevacuateschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpopulation,homeboundspecialneeds(discussedbelowinSection8.5)andcorrectionalfacilities(discussedbelowinSection8.6).Thesenumbersindicatetherearesufficientresourcesavailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave.Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus15minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusrout esalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriateschoolreceptioncenter.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.Eachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentoth eDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 6(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,100to105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:

RiverBendStation8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsintheEPZisshowninTable8 7throughTable8 8forschoolevacuation,andinTable8 10throughTable8 11forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransit dependentpersons,whicharediscussedlater.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedi stancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimetotheEPZwascappedusingLouisianaStatemaxbusspeedinTable8 7anda10%reductio nforraininTable8 8withspeedsat55mphand50mphrespectively.ForTable8 10andTable8 11maxspeedswerealsocappedat55mphand50mphforgoodweatherandrainfortraveltimetotheEPZboundary.Thetraveltimefromth eEPZboundarytotheReceptionCenterwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof45mph,40mphforgoodweatherandrainrespectively.Table8 7(goodweather),Table8 8(rain)presentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)Theel apsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)TheelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachestheReceptionCenter.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E(Forexample:90min.+15+23=2:10forJacksonPublicSchoolswithgoodweather).TheevacuationtimetotheSchoolReceptio nCenterisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityE F(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuationtime.EvacuationofTransit DependentPopulationThebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransit dependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure5 4(ResidentswithnoCommuters),approximately90percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,120minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.PAS2and18havehightransit dependentpopulationsandrequiremorebusesthananyotherPAS(Table8 9).Assuch,busesareseparatedintotworoutes.Thestartofserviceontheseroutesisseparatedby15minut eheadways,asshowninTable8 10andTable8 11.Theuseofbusheadwaysensuresthatthosepeoplewhotakelongertomobilizewillbepickedup.Busmobilizationtimeis10minuteslongerinraintoaccountforslowertravelspeedsandreducedroadwaycapacity.Thosebusesservicingthetransit dependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpick uproutes, RiverBendStation8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1thenproceedoutoftheEPZ.The11busroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure8 2anddescribedinTable8 9weredesignedaspartofthisstudytoservicethemajorroutesthrougheachPAS.Itisassumedthatresidentswillwalktoandcongregateatthesepre designatedpick uplocations,andthattheycanarri veatthestopswithinthe120minutebusmobilizationtime(goodweather).Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof30minutes(goodweather)isestimatedfor30individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwitheachstop.Alongerpickuptimeof40minutesisusedforrain.Thetraveldistancealongtherespectivepick uprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoftware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEV,usingtheaforementionedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table8 10throughTa ble8 11presentthetransit dependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweatherandrain,respectively.Forexample,theETEforthebusrouteservicingPAS1iscomputedas120+11+30=2:45forgoodweather(roundeduptonearest5minut es).Here,11minutesisthetimetotravel10.1milesat52.8mph,theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelforthisroutestartingat120minutes.TheETEforasecondwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheunlikelyeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers,aspreviouslydiscussed.Activity:TraveltoReceptionCenters(E F)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytothereceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtothereceptioncenter.ThereceptioncentersaremappedinFigure10 1.Foraonewaveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwo waveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsideredseparately,sinceitcouldexc eedtheETEforthegeneralpopulation.Assumedbusspeedsof55mph,50mphforgoodweatherandrainrespectively,willbeappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthetransit dependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(F G)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(G C)Table8 5indicatesthatthetotalneedsforTransitDependentpopulationis31buses.Theparishescollectivelycanprovide684buses.Therearesufficientresourcesavailabletoevacuatethetransitdependentpopulationinadditiontothemedicalfacilitiesandschools.Asecondwaveisnotneeded.EvacuationofMedicalFacilitiesTheevacuationofthesefacilitiesissimilartoschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof30patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythe RiverBendStation8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1patients.Wheelchairbusescanaccommodate15patients,wheelchairvans4patientsandambulancescanaccommodate2patients.* Loadingtimesof1minute,5minutes,and15minutesperpatientareassumedforambulatorypatients,wheelchairboundpatients,andbedriddenpatients,respectively.Table8 4indicatesthat37busruns,9wheelchairbusrunsand7ambulancerunsareneededtoserviceallofthemedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.AccordingtoTable8 5,theparishescancollectivelyprovide684buses,9vans,37wheel chairaccessiblebuses,3wheelchairaccessiblevansand28ambulances.AlltransportationresourcesprovidedbyEntergyandtheparisheshavebeenaccountedfor;therearesufficienttransportationresourcestoevacuatethepopulationofallmedicalfacilitiesinonewave.Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverag es90minutes.Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneed ed)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.Table8 12andTable8 13summarizetheETEformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZforgoodweatherandrain.AveragespeedsoutputbythemodelforScenario6(Scenario7forrain)Region3,cappedat55mph(50mphforrain),areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundaryiscomputedbydividingthedistancetotheEPZboundarybytheaveragetravelspeed.TheETEisthesumofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelchairbuses/vans,andambulancesatcapacityisassumedsuchthatthemaximumloadingtimesforbuses,wheelchairbusesandambulancesare30,75and30minutes,respectively.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,thecalculationofETEfortheFelicianaDialysisCenterwith48ambulatoryresidentsduringgoodweatheris:ETE:90+30(max.perbus)x1+15=135min.or2:15roundedtothenearest5minutes.Itisassumedthatmedicalfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughthereceptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.8.5 SpecialNeedsPopulationTheRiverBendDataResourcesBookhascombinedregistrationfortransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Basedondataprovidedbythisbook,thereareanestimated4homeboundspecialneedspeoplewithintheWestFelicianaParishportionoftheEPZand4peoplewithinthePointeCoupeeParishportionoftheEPZthatrequiretransportationassistancetoevacuate.Thesepeopl eallrequirewheelchairaccessiblevehicles.TheRBSDataResourcesBookalsoliststransitdependentpopulationthathasregistered,butdonotrequireadditionalresourcessuchasambulancesorwheelchairaccessiblevehicles.Thesepeoplehavebeenincludedwithinthegeneraltransitdependentpopulationdiscussedin RiverBendStation8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Section8.4.ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsTable8 14summarizestheETEforhomeboundspecialneedspeople.Thetableiscategorizedbytypeofvehiclerequiredandthenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesintoconsiderationthedeploymentofmultiplevehiclestoreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.Itisconservativelyassumedthatwheelchairboundspecialneedshouseholdsarespaced3milesapart.Vanspeedsapproximate20mphbetweenhouseholds(10%slowerinrain).Mobilizationtimesof90minuteswereused(100minutesforrain).ThelastHHisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthenetwork wideaveragespeed,cappedat55mph(50mphforrain),afterth elastpickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.ETEiscomputedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtimeatfirsthousehold,traveltosubsequenthouseholds,loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexampl e,assumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperHHimpliesthat8householdsneedtobeserviced.Whileonly1busesor2wheelchairvansareneededfromacapacityperspective,if4vehiclesaredeployedtoservicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequire2stops.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:1. Assume4wheelchairvansaredeployed,eachwith2stops,toserviceatotalof8HH.2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Vansarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:90minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirstpickup:5minutesc. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:1@9minutes=9minutesd. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:1@5minutes=5minutese. TraveltoEPZboundary:8minutes(5miles@39.3mph).ETE:90+5+9+5+8=2:00rounde dtothenearest5minutes8.6 CorrectionalFacilitiesAsdetailedinTableE 8,therearefourcorrectionalfacilitieswithintheEPZ-DixonCorrectionalInstitute,PointeCoupeeDetentionCenter,WestFelicianaParishJailandPrisonEnterprisesWakefieldPlant.Thetotalinmatepopulationatthesefacilit iesis1,621persons.Atotalof52busesareneededtoevacuatethesefacilitiesand1vanfortheWakefieldPlant,basedonacapacityof30inmatesperbus.Mobilizationtimeisassumedtobe90minutes(100minutesinrain).Itisestimatedthatittakes60minutestolo adtheinmatesontoabus.Thedetailedevacuationplansforthesefacilitieswerenotprovided.ForPointCoupeeDetentionCenter,usingGISsoftware,theshortestroutefromthefacilitytotheEPZboundary,travelingawayfromtheplant,is8.6miles.Thetraveltimetotraverse8.6milesis11minutes(46.4mphat2:30afterth eATE)ingoodweather,12minutes(41.9mphat2:40)inrain.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.

RiverBendStation8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 15.CorrectionalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesETE:GoodWeatherETE:90+60+11=2:45RainETE:100+60+12=2:55Table8 15providesETEestimatesforeachofthecorrectionalfacilities.

RiverBendStation8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter EBusExitsRegion FBusArrivesatReceptionCenter/HostFacilityGBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationServiceActivity A B DriverMobilization B C TraveltoFacilityortoPick upRoute C D PassengersBoardtheBus D E BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary E F BusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenterOutsidetheEPZ F G PassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreakFigure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time(SubsequentWave)

RiverBendStation8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes RiverBendStation8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimatedNo.ofHouseholdsSurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHH withCommutersSurveyPercentHH withNonReturning CommutersTotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharing PercentagePeopleRequiringPublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiringPublicTransit01201225,5921.891.772.6910,1566.80%24.3%44.8%59%36%1,85150%9263.6%

RiverBendStation8 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesPASSchoolNameEnrollmentBusesRequired EASTBATONROUGE,LA14PortHudsonCareerAcademy1253EASTFELICIANA,LA10JacksonPublicSchools9111710LouisianaTechnicalCollegeFolkesCampus 180010QuadAreaJacksonHeadStart972POINTECOUPEE,LA17RougonElementarySchool406718CatholicSchoolsNewRoads6791218ChristianWomenCaringforChildren26118FalseRiverAcademy5831018KidDLandDaycare&Learning31118LouisianaTechnicalCollegeJumonvilleCampus 1140018MaeMae'sPlayhouseandPreschool60118NewRoadsKiddieCollege57118RosenwaldElementarySchool4758WESTFELICIANA,LA2BainsElementarySchool619112BainsLowerElementary53492ChaseMinistries2822FirstStepDayCare&LearningCenter7522GracePreschool3512IntheBeginningChildDevelopmentCenter5622WestFelicianaHighSchool653112WestFelicianaMiddleSchool575106GirlScoutCampMarydale2635TOTAL: 6,5081161LouisianaTechnicalCollegedoesnotevacuatebybus.Studentvehicleswereloadedwithschools,butasindividualvehicles.

RiverBendStation8 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.SchoolReceptionCentersSchoolReceptionCenterEASTBATONROUGE,LAPortHudsonCareerAcademyBATONROUGERIVERCENTEREASTFELICIANA,LAJacksonPublicSchoolsBATONROUGERIVERCENTERLouisianaTechnicalCollegeFolkesCampusQuadArea JacksonHeadStartPOINTECOUPEE,LACatholicSchoolsNewRoadsLSUFIELDHOUSEChristianWomenCaringforChildrenFalseRiverAcademyKidDLandDaycare&LearningLouisianaTechnicalCollegeJumonvilleCampusMaeMae'sPlayhouseandPreschoolNewRoadsKiddieCollegeRosenwaldElementarySchoolRougonElementarySchoolWESTFELICIANA,LABainsElementarySchoolBATONROUGERIVERCENTERBainsLowerElementaryGirlScoutCampMarydaleChaseMinistriesFirstStepDayCare&LearningCenterGracePreschoolIntheBeginningChildDevelopmentCenterWestFelicianaHighSchoolWestFelicianaMiddleSchool RiverBendStation8 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemandPASFacilityNameMunicipalityCurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedriddenBusRunsWheelchairBusRunsAmbulance EASTFELICIANAMEDICALFACILITIES10FelicianaDialysisCenterJackson48480020010EastLouisianaStateHospitalJackson59159100200010JacksonSpecialHospitalJackson454500200EastFelicianaParishSubtotal: 684684002400POINTECOUPEEMEDICALFACILITIES18PointeCoupeeHealthcareNewRoads782748314218PointeCoupeeGeneralHospitalNewRoads271413011018FalseRiverManorApartmentsNewRoads40400020018LakeviewManorNursingHomeNewRoads10050401023518NewRoadsManorApartmentsNewRoads323200200PointeCoupeeParishSubtotal: 27716310113887WESTFELCIANAMEDICALFACILITIES2WestFelicianaParishHospitalSt.Francisville1515001003St.FrancisvilleCountryManorSt.Francisville124111130410WestFelicianaParishSubtotal: 139126130510TOTAL: 1,100973114133797 RiverBendStation8 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceBusesVansWheelchair BusesWheelchair VansAmbulances ResourcesAvailableWestFelicianaEMS3WestFelicianaParish27WestBatonRougeParish422EastBatonRougeParish51030EastFelicianaParish36EastFelicianaParishCouncilonAging93PointCoupeeParish695Acadian25TOTAL: 684937328ResourcesNeededSchools(Table8 2): 1160000MedicalFacilities(Table8 4): 370907TransitDependentPopulation(Table8 10): 310000HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5): 00040CorrectionalFacilities(Section8.6): 521000TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 2361947 RiverBendStation8 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1NewRoadsFacilitiesonHospitalRd/HWY1500,378,3802PointeCoupeeHealthcare,PointeCoupeeHospital376,378,3803WestFelicianaParishHospital6,563,7,55,63,64,65,66,182,75,76,79,83,84,85,86,88,89,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,1444St.FrancisvilleCountyManor76,79,83,84,85,86,88,89,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,1445JacksonMedicalFacilities,WestFelicianaDialysisCenter93,104,105,106,107,1446QuadJacksonHeadStart94,93,104,105,106,107,1447BeginningChildDevelopmentCenter63,64,65,66,182,75,76,79,83,84,85,86,88,89,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,1448FirstStepDaycare492,7,55,63,64,65,66,182,75,76,79,83,84,85,86,88,89,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,1449ChaseMinistriesGracePreschool487,492,7,55,63,64,65,66,182,75,76,79,83,84,85,86,88,89,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,14410NewRoadsKiddieCollege464,467,367,368,376,378,38011CatholicElementary,MiddleandHighSchools368,376,378,38012RosenwaldElementary463,464,467,367,368,376,378,38013PortHudsonCareerAcademy216,217,21814WestFelicianaMiddleandHighSchools,BainsElementaryandLowerElementarySchools74,73,72,71,70,69,68,182,75,76,79,83,84,85,86,88,89,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,14415TransitDependentRoutePAS12,134,133,131,605,130,129,206,209,210,211,212,213,214,215,216,217,218 19TransitDependentRoutePAS13231,232,233,234,244,24520TransitDependentRoutePAS12124,235,236,237,238,239,234,244,245,24621TransitDependentRoutePAS11117,116,109,107,14422TransitDependentRoutePAS3151,150,149,148,147,86,88,89,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,144 RiverBendStation8 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary23TransitDependentRoutePAS27,55,63,64,65,66,182,75,76,79,83,84,85,86,88,89,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,14425TransitDependentRoutePAS16340,343,344,345,346,431,430,428,427,426,425,542,543,56426TransitDependentRoutePAS17431,430,428,427,426,425,542,543,564 27TransitDependentRoutePAS18357,358,661,366,367,368,376,378,380 28WestFelicianaParishJail488,487,492,7,55,63,64,65,66,182,75,76,79,83,84,85,86,88,89,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,14429TransitDependentRoutePAS1091,92,93,104,105,106,107,14430PointeCoupeeDetentionCenter336,337,338,339,340,343,344,345,346,431,430,428,427,426,425,424,423,422,421,420,419,418,416,415,414,413,412,504,52631DixonCorrectionalFacility117,116,109,107,144117,136,118,119,120,123,184,124,235,236,254,58032TransitDependentRoutePAS776,79,83,84,85,86,88,89,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,14433TransitDependentRoutePAS6,GirlScoutCampMarydale12,30,32,33,37,40,47,497,498,13,499,523,496,15,17,27,31,495,494,90,91,92,93,104,105,106,107,14436EastLouisianaStateHospital135,110,109,116,117,136,118,119,120,123,184,124,235,236,254,580 RiverBendStation8 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)EASTBATONROUGE,LAPortHudsonCareerAcademy90152.255.031:5017.3192:10EASTFELICIANA,LAJacksonPublicSchools90153.59.3232:1033.3372:45QuadArea JacksonHeadStart90153.29.7202:0533.3372:45POINTECOUPEE,LACatholicSchoolsNewRoads90151.839.731:5034.1382:30ChristianWomenCaringforChildren90151.134.521:5041.2452:35FalseRiverAcademy90151.339.721:5034.1382:25KidDLandDaycare&Learning90151.234.531:5041.2452:35MaeMae'sPlayhouseandPreschool90151.334.531:5041.2452:35NewRoadsKiddieCollege90153.034.061:5534.1382:30RosenwaldElementarySchool90153.335.961:5534.1382:30RougonElementarySchool*90150.137.311:5034.1382:25WESTFELICIANA,LABainsElementarySchool901514.07.61113:4033.3374:15BainsLowerElementary901514.07.61113:4033.3374:15ChaseMinistries901515.78.21163:4533.3374:20FirstStepDayCare&LearningCenter901514.68.01103:3533.3374:15GracePreschool901515.38.21133:4033.3374:15IntheBeginningChildDevelopmentCenter901512.87.41043:3033.3374:10WestFelicianaHighSchool901514.47.61223:5033.3374:25WestFelicianaMiddleSchool901514.47.11223:5033.3374:25GirlScoutCampMarydale901524.624.5612:5033.3373:25MaximumforEPZ:3:50Maximum:4:25AverageforEPZ:2:40Average:3:20 RiverBendStation8 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)EASTBATONROUGE,LAPortHudsonCareerAcademy100202.250.032:0517.3212:25EASTFELICIANA,LAJacksonPublicSchools100203.59.0242:2533.3403:05QuadArea JacksonHeadStart100203.29.7202:2033.3403:00POINTECOUPEE,LACatholicSchoolsNewRoads100201.833.742:0534.1412:45ChristianWomenCaringforChildren100201.135.322:0541.2502:55FalseRiverAcademy100201.333.732:0534.1412:45KidDLandDaycare&Learning100201.235.332:0541.2502:55MaeMae'sPlayhouseandPreschool100201.335.332:0541.2502:55NewRoadsKiddieCollege100203.030.662:1034.1412:50RosenwaldElementarySchool100203.332.472:1034.1412:50RougonElementarySchool100200.132.412:0534.1412:45WESTFELICIANA,LABainsElementarySchool1002014.07.11184:0033.3404:40BainsLowerElementary1002014.07.11184:0033.3404:40ChaseMinistries1002015.77.51254:0533.3404:45FirstStepDayCare&LearningCenter1002014.67.41194:0033.3404:40GracePreschool1002015.37.51224:0533.3404:45IntheBeginningChildDevelopmentCenter1002012.86.91123:5533.3404:35WestFelicianaHighSchool1002014.47.11224:0533.3404:45WestFelicianaMiddleSchool1002014.47.11224:0533.3404:45GirlScoutCampMarydale1002024.621.8683:1033.3403:50MaximumforEPZ:4:05Maximum:4:45 AverageforEPZ:3:00Average:3:40 RiverBendStation8 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutesRouteNo.ofBusesRouteDescriptionLength(mi.)151ServicingHwy61southboundfromPAS1totheEPZBoundary.10.1193ServicingPAS13andwesternZacharymakingstopsalongSR946towardstheEPZboundary.3.3201ServicingPAS12andthenorthwesternportionofZacharymakingstopsalong964.4.9212ServicingPAS11southboundonSR68.14.2221ServicingPAS3alongSR965eastboundtowardsJacksonuntiltheEPZboundary.7.2234CommencinginPAS2inSt.FrancisvillemakingstopsalongthemajorevacuationrouteHwy10towardsJackson.14.2262ServicingPAS17outsideofNewRoads,LAmakingstopsalongSR414andSR415towardsBatonRouge.6.32710ServicingthetownofNewRoads(PAS18)alongHwy1southbound.4.3293ServicingthetownofJacksonalongHwy10totheEPZBoundary.3.5321ServicingPAS7alongHwy10totheEPZBoundary.8.1333CommencingnorthofSt.FrancisvilleinPAS6alongHwy61northboundto421eastbound,thensouthboundbackthroughJackson.24.6Total:31 RiverBendStation8 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)1112010.152.811302:4517.32351048304:45221203.348.94302:3519.52651034304:2511353.350.24302:5019.52651034304:40311204.954.65302:4019.52651038304:304112014.442.220302:5517.32351060305:05113514.447.418303:0517.32351060305:15511207.29.247303:2033.34451063305:556212014.28.699304:1033.34451083307:05213514.29.688304:1533.34451083307:10711206.354.77302:4023.93251047304:4511356.354.57302:5523.93251047305:00841204.333.48302:4033.34451058305:1041354.333.18302:5533.34451058305:2521504.333.58303:1033.34451057305:40931203.510.819302:5033.34451055305:151011208.15.884303:5533.34451066306:3511212024.626.256303:3033.344510110306:50113524.626.855303:4533.344510110307:05MaximumETE:4:15MaximumETE:7:10AverageETE:3:10AverageETE:5:35 RiverBendStation8 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)1113010.148.213403:0517.32651054405:20221303.343.85402:5519.52951038405:0011453.347.04403:1019.52951038405:15311304.947.96403:0019.52951042405:104113014.441.321403:1517.32651067405:45114514.443.820403:2517.32651067405:55511307.27.856403:5033.35051071406:506213014.27.7111404:4533.35051092408:05214514.28.995404:4533.35051092408:05711306.349.78403:0023.93651053405:2511456.349.58403:1523.93651053405:40841304.330.48403:0033.35051064405:5041454.330.58403:1533.35051064406:0521604.330.58403:3033.35051064406:20931303.510.320403:1533.35051061406:051011308.15.294404:2533.35051074407:2511213024.622.765403:5533.350510123407:45114524.623.862404:1033.350510124408:00MaximumETE:4:45MaximumETE:8:05AverageETE:3:35AverageETE:6:20 RiverBendStation8 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)Loading Rate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)EASTFELICIANA,LAFelicianaDialysisCenterAmbulatory90148302.9152:15EastLouisianaStateHospitalAmbulatory9015913015.2793:20JacksonSpecialHospitalAmbulatory90145302.9152:15POINTECOUPEE,LAPointeCoupeeHealthcareAmbulatory90127271.222:00Wheelchairbound90548751.222:50Bedridden90153301.222:05PointeCoupeeGeneralHospitalAmbulatory90114140.711:45Wheelchairbound90513650.712:40FalseRiverManorApartmentsAmbulatory90140301.022:05LakeviewManorNursingHomeAmbulatory90150301.022:05Wheelchairbound90540751.022:50Bedridden901510301.022:05NewRoadsManorApartmentsAmbulatory90132301.522:05WESTFELICIANA,LAWestFelicianaParishHospitalAmbulatory901151513.41053:30St.FrancisvilleCountryManorAmbulatory901111308.1843:25Wheelchairbound90513658.1593:35MaximumETE:3:35AverageETE:2:25 RiverBendStation8 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-RainMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)EASTFELICIANA,LA FelicianaDialysisCenterAmbulatory100148302.9142:25EastLouisianaStateHospitalAmbulatory10015913015.2893:40JacksonSpecialHospitalAmbulatory100145302.9142:25POINTECOUPEE,LAPointeCoupeeHealthcareAmbulatory100127271.222:10Wheelchairbound100548751.223:00Bedridden100153301.222:15PointeCoupeeGeneralHospitalAmbulatory100114140.711:55Wheelchairbound100513650.712:50FalseRiverManorApartmentsAmbulatory100140301.022:15LakeviewManorNursingHomeAmbulatory100150301.022:15Wheelchairbound100540751.023:00Bedridden1001510301.022:15NewRoadsManorApartmentsAmbulatory100132301.532:15WESTFELICIANA,LA WestFelicianaParishHospitalAmbulatory1001151513.41163:55St.FrancisvilleCountryManorAmbulatory1001111308.1943:45Wheelchairbound100513658.1693:55MaximumETE:3:55AverageETE:2:40 RiverBendStation8 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table814.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimatesVehicleTypePeopleRequiringVehicleVehiclesdeployedStopsWeatherConditionsMobilizationTimeLoadingTimeat1 stStopTraveltoSubsequentStopsTotalLoadingTimeatSubsequentStopsTravelTimetoEPZBoundaryETEWheelchairVans842Normal9059582:00Rain1001092:10Table815.CorrectionalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesCorrectionalFacilityWeatherConditionsMobilization(min)NumberofBusesLoadingRate(minperperson)NumberofInmatesTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)DixonCorrectionalFacilityNormal904921,4706014.40182:50Rain100203:00WestFelicianaParishJailNormal9012446015.8763:50Rain100894:10PointeCoupeeDetentionCenterNormal9022100608.6112:45Rain100122:55MaximumETE:4:10AverageETE:3:15TheWakefieldPlantusing1vanisnotincludedinthistable RiverBendStation9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).* TrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.ThesedevicesshouldcomplywiththeguidanceoftheManualofUniformTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.AllstateandmostparishtransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisav ailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. Facilitat eevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Theterms"facilitate"and"discourage"areemployedratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forex ample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR 7002.2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.Thisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionstha texperiencepronouncedcongestion.AnycriticalintersectionsthatarenotidentifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandACPs3. Afieldsurveyofthehighwaynetworkwithin15milesofthepowerplant.Theim agedepictingtrafficcontrolatasuggestedadditionalTCPsite,whichispresentedinAppendixG,isbasedondatacollectedduringfieldsurveys,uponlargescalemaps,and RiverBendStation9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1onoverheadphotos.4. Consultationwithemergencymanagementandlawenforcementpersonnel.TrainedpersonnelwhoareexperiencedincontrollingtrafficandareawareofthelikelyevacuationtrafficpatternsshouldreviewthecontroltacticsatthesuggestedadditionalTCP.5. PrioritizationofTCPsandACPs.ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandACPswillhaveamorepronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmo vementsthanatotherTCPsandACPs.Forexample,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromth epowerplant.Theseprioritiesshouldbeassignedbystate/parishemergencymanagementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.TheuseofIntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)technologies(ifavailable)canreducemanpowerandequipmentneeds,whilestillfacilitatingtheevacuationprocess.DynamicMessageSigns(DMS)canbeplacedwithintheEPZtoprovideinformationtotravelersregardingtrafficconditions,routeselection,andreceptioncenterinformation.DMScanalsobeplacedo utsideoftheEPZtowarnmotoriststoavoidusingroutesthatmayconflictwiththeflowofevacueesawayfromthepowerplant.HighwayAdvisoryRadio(HAR)canbeusedtobroadcastin formationtoevacueesenroutethroughtheirvehiclestereosystems.AutomatedTravelerInformationSystems(ATIS)canalsobeusedtoprovideevacueeswithinformation.Internetwebsitescanprovidetrafficandevacuationrouteinformationbeforetheevacueebeginstheirtrip,whileonboardnavigationsystems(GPSunits),cellphones,andpagerscanbeusedtoprovideinformationenroute.TheseareonlyseveralexamplesofhowITStechnologiescanbenefittheevacuationprocess.ConsiderationshouldbegiventhatITStechnologiesbeusedtofacilitatetheevacuationprocess,andanyadditionalsignageplacedshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.Chapters2Nand5G,andPart6ofthe2009MUTCDareparticularlyrelevantandshouldbereviewedduringemergencyresponsetraining.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"externalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter2hourshaveelapsedfromtheATE.AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningACPsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussACPandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.

RiverBendStation10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromaPASbeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsuchawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1presentamapshowin gthegeneralpopulationandschoolreceptioncentersforevacuees.ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 2.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriatereceptioncenterandsubsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transit de pendentevacueesaretransportedtooneofthereceptioncenters.Thisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,iftheparishesdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.

RiverBendStation10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationandSchoolReceptionCenters RiverBendStation10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.RBSMajorEvacuationRoutes RiverBendStation11 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.111 SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONSThereisaneedforsurveillanceoftrafficoperationsduringtheevacuation.Thereisalsoaneedtoclearanyblockageofroadwaysarisingfromaccidentsorvehicledisablement.Surveillancecantakeseveralforms.1. Trafficcontrolpersonnel,locatedatTrafficControlandAccessControlpoints,providefixed pointsurveillance.2. Groundpatrolsmaybeundertakenalongwell definedpathstoensurecoverageofthosehighwaysthatserveasmajorevacuationroutes.3. Aerialsurveillanceofevacuationoperationsmayalsobeconductedusinghelicopterorfixed wingaircraft,ifavailable.4. Cellularphonecalls(ifcellularcoverageexists)frommotoristsmayalsoprovidedirectfieldreportsofroadblockages.TheseconcurrentsurveillanceproceduresaredesignedtoprovidecoverageoftheentireEPZaswellastheareaarounditsperiphery.ItistheresponsibilityoftheParishestosupportanemergencyresponsesystemthatcanreceivemessagesfromthefieldandbeinapositiontorespondtoanyreportedproblemsinatimelymanner.Thiscoverageshouldquic klyidentify,andexpeditetheresponsetoanyblockagecausedbyadisabledvehicle.TowVehiclesInalow speedtrafficenvironment,anyvehicledisablementislikelytoariseduetoalow speedcollision,mechanicalfailureortheexhaustionofitsfuelsupply.Inanycase,thedisabledvehiclecanbepushedontotheshoulder,therebyrestoringtrafficflow.Pastexperienceinotheremergenciesindicatesthatevacueeswhoareleavinganareaoftenperformactivitiessuchaspushingadisabledvehicletothesideoftheroadwithoutprom pting.Whiletheneedfortowvehiclesisexpectedtobelowunderthecircumstancesdescribedabove,itisstillprudenttobepreparedforsuchaneed.Considerationshouldbegiventhattowtruckswithasupplyofgasolinebedeployedatstrategiclo cationswithin,orjustoutside,theEPZ.Theselocationsshouldbeselectedsothat: Theypermitaccesstokey,heavilyloaded,evacuationroutes. Respondingtowtruckswouldmostlikelytravelcounter flowrelativetoevacuatingtraffic.Considerationshouldalsobegiventhatthestateandlocalemergencymanagementagenciesencouragegasstationstoremainopenduringtheevacuation.

RiverBendStation12 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.112 CONFIRMATIONTIMEItisnecessarytoconfirmthattheevacuationprocessiseffectiveinthesensethatthepubliciscomplyingwiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheLouisianaPeacetimeRadiologicalResponsePlan(LPRRP)states:"Periodicpatrolsbylawenforcementand/orotheremergencypersonnelwillcanvasareastoconfirmevacuationandremoveremainingpersonsasrequired."Shouldtherebeinsufficientmanpowertoconfirmevacuationusingthismethoddiscussedabove,thefollowingalternativeorcomplementaryapproachissuggested.Thesuggestedprocedureemploysastratifiedrandomsampleandatelephonesurvey.Thesizeofthesampleisdependentontheexpectednumberofhouseholdsthatdono tcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Itisreasonabletoassume,forthepurposeofestimatingsamplesizethatatleast80percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZwillcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Onthisbasis,ananalysiscouldbeundertaken(seeTable12 1)toyieldanestimatedsamplesizeofapproximately300.Theconfirmationprocessshouldstartatabout3hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,whichiswhenapproximately95percentofresidentevacueeshavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivities(seeTable5 9).Atthistime,virtuallyallevacueeswillhavedepartedontheirrespect ivetripsandthelocaltelephonesystemwillbelargelyfreeoftraffic.AsindicatedinTable12 1,approximately71/2personhoursareneededtocompletethetelephonesurvey.Ifsixpeopleareassignedtothistask,eachdialingadifferentsetoftelephoneexchanges(e.g.,eachpersoncanbeassignedadifferentsetofthreePAS),thentheconfirmationprocesswillextendoveratimeframeofabout75minutes.Thu s,theconfirmationshouldbecompletedbeforetheevacuatedareaiscleared.Ofcourse,fewerpeoplewouldbeneededforthissurveyiftheEvacuationRegionwereonlyaportionofth eEPZ.Useofmodernautomatedcomputercontrolleddialingequipmentorothertechnologies(e.g.,reverse911orequivalent)cansignificantlyreducethemanpowerrequirementsandthetimerequiredtoundertakethistypeofconfirmationsurvey.Ifthismethodisindeedusedbytheoffsiteagencies,considerationshouldbegiventomaintainalistoftelephonenumberswithintheEPZintheEmergencyOperationsCenter(EOC)atalltimes.Suchalistcouldbepurchasedfromvendorsandcouldbeperiodicallyupdated.Asindicatedabove,theconfirmationprocessshouldnotbeginuntil3hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,toensurethathouseholdshavehadenoughtimetomobilize.This3 hourtimeframewillenabletelephoneoperatorstoarriveatth eirworkplace,obtainacalllistandpreparetomakethenecessaryphonecalls.Shouldthenumberoftelephoneresponses(i.e.,peoplestillathome)exceed20percent,thenthetelepho nesurveyshouldberepeatedafteranhour'sintervaluntiltheconfirmationprocessiscompleted.Othertechniquescouldalsobeconsidered.Aftertrafficvolumesdecline,thepersonnel RiverBendStation12 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1manningTCPscanberedeployedtotravelthroughresidentialareastoobserveandtoconfirmevacuationactivities.

RiverBendStation12 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuationProblemDefinitionEstimatenumberofphonecalls,n,neededtoascertaintheproportion,Fofhouseholdsthathavenotevacuated.

Reference:

Burstein,H.,AttributeSampling,McGrawHill,1971Given: No.ofhouseholdsplusotherfacilities,N,withintheEPZ(est.)=10,200 Est.proportion,F,ofhouseholdsthatwillnotevacuate=0.20 Allowableerrormargin,e:0.05 Confidencelevel,:0.95(impliesA=1.96)ApplyingTable10ofcitedreference,Finitepopulationcorrection:

Thus,some300telephonecallswillconfirmthatapproximately20percentofthepopulationhasnotevacuated.Ifonly10percentofthepopulationdoesnotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate,thentherequiredsamplesize,n F=212.

Est.PersonHourstocomplete300telephonecallsAssume: Timetodialusingtouchtone(randomselectionoflistednumbers):30seconds Timefor6rings(noanswer):36seconds Timefor4ringsplusshortconversation:60sec. Intervalbetweencalls:20sec.PersonHours:

APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms RiverBendStationA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red.

RiverBendStationA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.

APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel RiverBendStationB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost".OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.

RiverBendStationB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel RiverBendStationB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a=

ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepresentsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

RiverBendStationB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?

Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel RiverBendStationC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics RiverBendStationC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network RiverBendStationC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks RiverBendStationC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 80078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx RiverBendStationC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.

RiverBendStationC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagramsFigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp RiverBendStationC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelengthofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.

RiverBendStationC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength.

RiverBendStationC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.

RiverBendStationC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.

RiverBendStationC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,.

Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:

RiverBendStationC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm RiverBendStationC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.

RiverBendStationC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes RiverBendStationC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.

APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure RiverBendStationD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromtheRBSlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.TheRiverBendStationprovidedtheirEmergencyResourcesDatabookforuseinthisstudy.Thistw ovolumeresourceincludesacomprehensivelistingofallfacilitieswithintheEPZincludingtransientfacilityestimates,schoolenrollmentandcensuspopulationatmedicalfacilities.Alldatausedinthestudywassiteddirectlyfromthisresource.Anydatamissingwassupplementedbyparishandlocalmunicipalsourceswithth eexceptionofemployeedata.AnyemploymentdatamissingwassupplementedwiththeU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployerHouseholdDynamicsinteractivewebsitedata 1.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateandlocalemergencymanagers,on siteandoff siteutilityemergencymanagers).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specificrequestsforinformationwerepresentedtolocalemergencymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity._____________

____________1 http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/

RiverBendStationD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredtoperformpre evacuationmobilizationactivities.Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto18ProtectiveActionSectors(PAS).Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofPAS)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.

RiverBendStationD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperien cetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakema nyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputst reammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thenth eprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroutespecificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransit RiverBendStationD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1dependentandspecialfacilitypopulationgroups.Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset.Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.

RiverBendStationD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXESpecialFacilityData RiverBendStationE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. SPECIALFACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofMarch2012,forspecialfacilitiesthatarelocatedwithintheRiverBendStationEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,daycarecenters,hospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities,andcorrectionalfacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforrecreati onalareasandlodgingfacilities.Employmentdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Eachtableisgroupedbyparish.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,daycarecent er,recreationalarea,lodgingfacility,majoremployerandcorrectionalfacilitiesarealsoprovided.

RiverBendStationE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZPASDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnrollmentStaffEASTBATONROUGE,LA147.3SSEPortHudsonCareerAcademy205WestFlonacherRoadZachary(225)658738112517EastBatonRougeParishSubtotals:12517EASTFELICIANA,LA109.9ENEJacksonPublicSchools3501Louisiana10Jackson(225)6345933911105109.9ENELouisianaTechnicalCollegeFolkesCampus3337Louisiana10Jackson(225)634263680EastFelicianaParishSubtotals:991105POINTECOUPEE,LA1710.5SSWRougonElementarySchool13258Louisiana416Rougon(225)638806640650187.2WSWRosenwaldElementarySchool1100NewRoadsStreetNewRoads(225)638634147565187.6SWCatholicSchoolsNewRoads302NapoleonStreetNewRoads(225)638931367985188.8WSWFalseRiverAcademy201MajorPkwyNewRoads(225)638378358350189.4WSWLouisianaTechnicalCollegeJumonvilleCampus605HospitalRoadNewRoads(225)6342636140PointeCoupeeParishSubtotals:2,283250WESTFELICIANA,LA25.5NNWBainsElementarySchool9792BainsRoadSt.Francisville(225)63532726196025.5NNWBainsLowerElementary9794BainsRoadSt.Francisville(225)63546965343125.7NNWWestFelicianaMiddleSchool9559BainsRoadSt.Francisville(225)63538985757325.8NNWWestFelicianaHighSchool8604Highway61NorthSt.Francisville(225)635456165365WestFelicianaParishSubtotals:2,381229TOTAL:5,780601 RiverBendStationE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.DaycaresandPreschoolswithintheEPZPASDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnrollmentStaffEASTFELICIANA,LA109.0NEQuadArea JacksonHeadStart3531CottageStreetJackson(225)63428139715EastFelicianaParishSubtotals:9715POINTECOUPEE,LA187.3WSWNewRoadsKiddieCollege1100NewRoadsStNewRoads(800)43332435711189.4WSWChristianWomenCaringforChildren3462MaryDriveNewRoads(225)6188080266189.4WSWMaeMae'sPlayhouseandPreschool3432EwingDriveNewRoads(225)63554376014189.5WSWKidDLandDaycare&Learning3432EwingDriveNewRoads(225)6385435314PointeCoupeeParishSubtotals:17435WESTFELICIANA,LA23.3WNWGracePreschool11621LouisianaHighway1258St.Francisville(225)635406535723.4WNWChaseMinistries9856RoyalStreetSt.Francisville(225)784002428823.6NWFirstStepDayCare&LearningCenter9912WilcoxSt.St.Francisville(225)635405075823.8NNWIntheBeginningChildDevelopmentCenter12404Louisiana10St.Francisville(225)6356111561765.9NNWGirlScoutCampMarydale10317MarydaleRoadSt.Francisville(225)6353112263WestFelicianaParishSubtotals:45740TOTAL:72890 RiverBendStationE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZPASDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCurrentCensusAmbu latoryPatientsWheel chairPatientsBedriddenPatientsEASTFELICIANAPARISH,LA 108.6NEFelicianaDialysisCenter2995RaceStreetJackson(225)6342733484800108.9NEEastLouisianaStateHospital4502Highway951Jackson(225)634010059159100109.3NEJacksonSpecialHospital4502Highway951Jackson(225)6340100454500EastFelicianaParishSubtotals:68468400POINTECOUPEE PARISH,LA 188.7SWPointeCoupeeHealthcare1820FalseRiverDriveNewRoads(504)83731447827483189.2WSWPointeCoupeeGeneralHospital2202FalseRiverDriveNewRoads(225)63863312714130189.3WSWFalseRiverManorApartments1102HospitalRoadNewRoads(225)6389080404000189.3WSWLakeviewManorNursingHome400HospitalRoadNewRoads(225)6384404100504010189.5WSWNewRoadsManorApartments151GrezaffiDriveNewRoads(225)6384768323200PointeCoupeeParishSubtotals:27716310113WESTFELICIANAPARISH,LA 22.7NWWestFelicianaParishHospital5266CommerceStreetSt.Francisville(225)635381115150036.4NNESt.FrancisvilleCountryManor15243LaHighway10St.Francisville(225)6353346124111130WestFelicianaParishSubtotals:139126130TOTAL:1,10097311413 RiverBendStationE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZPASDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees(maxshift)Employees(NonEPZ)EASTBATONROUGE,LA148.1SSEAmocoProductionCoLouisiana3113Zachary(225)65454432013148.1SSEGeorgiaPacificPortHudson1000WestMountPleasantZacharyRoadZachary(225)6541700550363EastBatonRougeParishSubtotals:570376EASTFELICIANA,LA108.9NEEastLouisianaStateHospital4502Highway951Jackson(225)6340100600396109.9ENEJacksonPublicSchools3501Louisiana10Jackson(225)6345933105701010.2ENEJacksonHardwood2528Louisiana10Jackson(225)63454433221118.3ENEDixonCorrectionalInstitute5568Highway68Jackson(225)634120031520843.3SSEKPAQIndustries,LLC2105Louisiana964St.Francisville(225)336253042027784.2ESEWilliamsGasPipelineTransco2988Louisiana964Jackson(225)6542047191395.1SEColonialPipelineCoHWY61Jackson(225)65404143020EastFelicianaParishSubtotals:1,5211,005POINTECOUPEE,LA162.6SWBigCajunNo.210431CajunIIRoadNewRoads(225)63837732291511710.5SSWRougonElementarySchool13258Louisiana416Rougon(225)63880665033187.2WSWRosenwaldElementarySchool1100NewRoadsStreetNewRoads(225)63863416543187.6SWCatholicElementary,Middle&HighSchools302NapoleonStreetNewRoads(225)63893138557188.8WSWFalseRiverAcademy201MajorPkwyNewRoads(225)63837835033189.1WSWWal Mart2050FalseRiverDriveNewRoads(225)63886095033189.2WSWPointeCoupeeGeneralHospital2202FalseRiverDriveNewRoads(225)6386331170112189.3WSWLakeviewManorNursingHome400HospitalRoadNewRoads(225)63844046040189.7WSWLouisianaGeneratingLLC112TellyStreetNewRoads(225)61840005536189.7WSWBigCajunNo.1112TellyStreetNewRoads(225)61840001611PointeCoupeeParishSubtotals:830549 RiverBendStationE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PASDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees(maxshift)Employees(NonEPZ)WESTFELICIANA,LA10RiverBendStation5485USHWY61St.Francisville(225)635609467544623.5WU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineer'sSt.FrancisvilleCastingYard11374FerdinandSt.St.Francisville(225)635354018612325.5NNWBainsElementarySchool9792BainsRoadSt.Francisville(225)6353272604025.7NNWWestFelicianaMiddleSchool9559BainsRoadSt.Francisville(225)6353898734825.8NNWWestFelicianaHighSchool8604Highway61NorthSt.Francisville(225)6354561654368.1NWLambertGravel8190TunicaTraceSt.Francisville(225)63532517577.6NEDukeEnergy/TexasEasternLAHWY10Jackson(225)63457210778.0NETexasEasternTransmission17238Louisiana10St.Francisville(225)6347105107WestFelicianaParishSubtotals:1,019719TOTAL:3,9402,649TheRBSDatabookdidnotprovideapercentoutsideEPZfigureforemployees.Thepercentageof66%wasappliedtoallfacilitiesbasedontheanalysisperformedusingtheU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployerHouseholdDynamicswebsite.

RiverBendStationE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 5.RecreationalAttractionswithintheEPZPASDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesEASTBATONROUGE,LA13SE8BeaverCreekGolfCourse1100EPlainsPortHudsonRdZachary(225)65863389632EastBatonRougeParishSubtotals:9632EASTFELICIANA,LA9SSE5.9PortHudsonStateHistoricSite236U.S.Hwy61Jackson(225)654377527814610NE9.1CentenaryStateHistoricSite3522CollegeStreetJacksonN/A12777109.9ENELouisianaTechnicalCollegeFolkesCampus3337Louisiana10Jackson(225)63426368080EastFelicianaParishSubtotals:485303POINTECOUPEE,LA18SSW5.7FalseRiverGolfandCountryClub13875PatinDykeRoadVentress(225)6386309454518WSW8.6PointeCoupeeParks&Rec1200MajorParkwayNewRoads(225)618214110757189.4WSWLouisianaTechnicalCollegeJumonvilleCampus**605HospitalRoadNewRoads(225)6342636140140PointeCoupeeParishSubtotals:292242WESTFELICIANA,LA1NNW1.7Hemingbough10101LAHwy965St.Francisville(225)63566175102101NNE3.5PeacefulPinesRVPark11907LAHwy965St.Francisville(225)635490330161NNE3.5AudubonStateHistoricSite11788Louisiana965St.Francisville(225)63537391,009922WNW3.3WestFelicianaHistoricalSocietyMuseum11757FerdinandStSt.Francisville(225)6356330105552NW3.5RosedownPlantation12501LouisianaHwy10St.Francisville(225)6353332150752W3.5RiverBoatCruises*N/ASt.FrancisvilleN/A400142NW4.6TheMyrtlesPlantation7747USHighway61St.Francisville(225)635627711565WestFelicianaParishSubtotals:2,319527TOTAL:3,1921,1041RiverBoatsusecharterbusestotransportvisitorstolocalhistoricsites.Thetoursuse7buseswhichisequivalentto14passengervehicles.

RiverBendStationE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 6.HuntingClubswithintheEPZPASDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesPOINTECOUPEE,LA18SW7.5EvergreenHuntingClub10635IslandRdVentress(225)638630962PointeCoupeeParishSubtotals:62WESTFELICIANA,LA1SSW0.64JuneBugHuntingClub12212PowellStationRoadSt.Francisville(225)4050387621N1.1RBSHuntingClub5485HWY61St.FrancisvilleN/A621NE2.2WFPLaurelHuntingClub,Inc.5390AudubonLaneSt.FrancisvilleN/A621S3.7Dugan'sLandingLAHwy964St.FrancisvilleN/A100502NNW3.8RedBugHuntingClub11988Louisiana10St.FrancisvilleN/A622N4.9BuckhornHuntingClub10231HWY421St.FrancisvilleN/A623ENE3.9Big"D"HuntingClub4660Louisiana966St.Francisville(225)2357619623NE4.6ThompsonCreekBluffsHuntingClub14056Louisiana965St.FrancisvilleN/A625W9WestFelicianaHuntingClubCatIslandRdSt.FrancisvilleN/A80406N6.7StirlingRoadHuntingClub7787CountryRoad345St.FrancisvilleN/A536NW7.4DelatteFamilyHuntingCampCountyRoad653St.FrancisvilleN/A626NNW8.6BayouSaraHuntingCampRT66&SolitudeRdSt.FrancisvilleN/A60306N8.9SageHillHuntingClub8115CountryRoad322St.Francisville(225)9314841626NW9.5BigOak,Gainer,HighPointHuntingClubN/ASt.FrancisvilleN/A100507NNE6.1WhitetaleHuntingClubLouisiana10St.FrancisvilleN/A627NNE6.7SugarlandHuntingClub16789Louisiana10St.FrancisvilleN/A627NNE7.2Jack'sHuntingClubCurterRd.St.FrancisvilleN/A627NNE9.9NorthFortyHuntingClub9722CountyRoad203St.FrancisvilleN/A627NNE9.9ClubBackStage13255WeaverRdSt.FrancisvilleN/A62WestFelicianaParishSubtotals:429201TOTAL:435203 RiverBendStationE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 7.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZPASDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesEASTFELICIANA,LA108.9NEOldCentenaryInn1740CharterStreetJackson(225)63450501111EastFelicianaParishSubtotals:1111POINTECOUPEE,LA188.1SWMorel'sInn221WestMainStreetNewRoads(225)6387177137189.2SWPointBreezeMotel2111FalseRiverDriveNewRoads(225)63834141912189.4WSWNeal'sCypressInn675HospitalRoadNewRoads(225)63880844424PointeCoupeeParishSubtotals:7643WESTFELICIANA,LA23.1WNWSt.FrancisvilleInn5720CommerceStreetSt.Francisville(225)635650213723.3WNWMagnusonHotel7059USHighway61St.Francisville(225)635383135015023.3NWBestWesternSt.FrancisvilleHotel6756USHighway61St.Francisville(225)63558511217223.5NWBarrowHouseBed&Breakfast9779RoyalStreetSt.Francisville(225)6354791201067.2NNWTheCottagePlantation10528CottageLaneSt.Francisville(225)635367414879.9NETheBluffsCountryClub&Resort14233SunriseWaySt.Francisville(225)6345222157128WestFelicianaParishSubtotals:675375TOTAL:762429 RiverBendStationE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 8.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZPASDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCapacityEASTFELICIANA,LA118.3ENEDixonCorrectionalInstitute5568Highway68Jackson(225)63412001470EastFelicianaParishSubtotals:1,470POINTECOUPEE,LA163.1WSWPointeCoupeeDetentionCenter10933CajunIIRoadNewRoads(225)6385407100PointeCoupeeParishSubtotals:100WESTFELICIANA,LA23.4WNWWestFelicianaParishJail4789CR418St.Francisville(225)63565134469.1NPrisonEnterprisesWakefieldPlant10832HWY61 St.Francisville(225)3426633 7 WestFelicianaParishSubtotals:51TOTAL:1,621 RiverBendStationE 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ RiverBendStationE 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.PreschoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZ RiverBendStationE 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ RiverBendStationE 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ RiverBendStationE 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ RiverBendStationE 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 6.HuntingClubswithintheEPZ RiverBendStationE 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 7.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ RiverBendStationE 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 8.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ APPENDIXFTelephoneSurvey RiverBendStationF 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F. TELEPHONESURVEYF.1 IntroductionThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesfortheRiverBendStationEPZrequirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseverallimitationswhenappliedtoemergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneededtoidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,CensusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlyma ynotaccuratelyrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.TheseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleoftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerningfamilydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthesurveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheform"Whatwouldyoudoif-?"andotherquestionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar("Howlongdoesittakeyouto-?")

RiverBendStationF 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlanAttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthesurveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeofapproximately550completedsurveyformsyieldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4.15%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alistofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF 1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlayingCensusdataandtheEPZboundary,againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsforeachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF 1.NotethattheaveragehouseholdsizecomputedinTableF 1wasanestimateforsamplingpurposesandwasnotuse dintheETEstudy.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.TableF 1.RBSTelephoneSurveySamplingPlanZipCodePopulationwithinEPZ(2000)1HouseholdsRequiredSample7072962242707302117957073651217912707485,9611,5091007074933114610707606,9892,44616270773234896707756,2402,23114870777109433707832,19787258707912,15469646Total25,0008,314550AverageHouseholdSize: 3.01TotalSampleRequired: 550Thesurveydisclosedhereinwasperformedin2007.TheEPZpopulationhasmarginallyincreasedby2.37%(592people)betweenthe2000and2010Census(seeSection3.1).Intheinterveningperiod,thedistributionpatternofpopulationwithintheEPZhasnotchanged,norhasthenatureoftheEPZ.Consequently,theuseof2007telephonesurveysamplingplanandresultscanbejustified.1 EPZPopulationusedin2007COLA RiverBendStationF 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3 SurveyResultsTheresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsoftheareacanbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobileownership,andautomobileavailability.Thedistributionsofthetimetoperformcertainpre evacuationactivitiesarethesecondcategoryofsurveyresults.Thesedataareprocessedtodevelopthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedinSection5.Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshavea"don'tknow"(DK)or"refused"entryforaresponse.Itisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthi stypetoaccepttheanswersofarespondentwhooffersaDKresponseforafewquestionsorwhorefusestoanswerafewquestions.ToaddresstheissueofoccasionalDK/refusedresponsesfromalargesample,thepracticeistoassumethatthedistributionoftheseresponsesisthesameasth eunderlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDK/refusedresponsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResultsHouseholdSizeFigureF 1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ.Theaveragehouseholdfromthetelephonesurveycontains2.52people.Theestimatedhouseholdsize(3.01persons)usedtodeterminethesurveysample(TableF 1)wasdrawnfrom2000Censusdata.The2010Censusdataindicatesthereare25,592peopleand10,156households.Calculatingtheaveragehouseholdsiz ebasedon2010Censusdataresultsin2.52people.Theagreementbetweentheaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthesurveyandfromthe2010Censusisanindicationofthereliabilityofthesurvey.

RiverBendStationF 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZAutomobileOwnershipTheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis1.98.Itshouldbenotedthatapproximately6.75percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF 2.FigureF 3andFigureF 4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.Notethatthemajorityofhouseholdswithoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2ormorepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability0%10%20%30%40%50%12345678910+

%ofHouseholds HouseholdSizeRiverBendHouseholdSize 0%10%

20%30%40%50%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesRiverBendVehicleAvailability RiverBendStationF 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to10+PersonHouseholds0%20%40%

60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 1 5PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 6 9+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9People10+People RiverBendStationF 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommutersFigureF 5presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.00commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ,and59%ofhouseholdshaveatleastonecommuter.FigureF 5.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ0%10%20%30%

40%50%01234+%ofHouseholds NumberofCommutersRiverBendCommuters RiverBendStationF 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommuterTravelModesFigureF 6presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.03employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.FigureF 6.ModesofTravelintheEPZF.3.2 EvacuationResponseSeveralquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulation'sresponsetoanemergency.Thesearenowdiscussed:"Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?"TheresponseisshowninFigureF 7.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.53vehicles."Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?"Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,64percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembersbeforeevacuatingand36percentindicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembers."Ifyouhadahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?"Basedontheresponsestothesurvey,63percentofhouseholdshaveafamilypet.Ofthehouseholdswithpets,74percentofthemindicatedthattheywouldtaketheirpetswiththem,asshowninFigur eF 8.0.0%0.2%0.4%96.3%3.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%RailBusWalk/BikeDriveAloneCarpool(2+)%ofCommuters ModeofTravelRiverBendTravelModetoWork RiverBendStationF 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 7.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuationFigureF 8.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVehiclesUsedforEvacuation 0%20%40%

60%80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets RiverBendStationF 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3.3 TimeDistributionResultsThesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuationactivities.Theseactivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheirday to daylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftheresponder'sexperience.ThemobilizationdistributionsprovidedbelowaretheresultofhavingappliedtheanalysisdescribedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization."Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?"FigureF 9presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyaboutminutes.Eighty sixpercentcanleavewithin45minutes.FigureF 9.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120

%ofCommuters PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork RiverBendStationF 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?"FigureF 10presentstheworktohometraveltimefortheEPZ.About87percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithinabout45minutesofleavingwork;nearlyallwithin105minutes.FigureF10.WorktoHomeTravelTime0%20%40%60%

80%100%0153045607590105120

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)WorktoHomeTravel RiverBendStationF 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?"FigureF 11presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthisactivitymimicsafamily'spreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.ThedistributionshowninFigureF 11hasalong"tail."About80percentofhouseholdscanbereadytoleavehomewithin60minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditionaltwohoursandafifteenminutes.FigureF11.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuationF.4 ConclusionsThetelephonesurveyprovidesvaluable,relevantdataassociatedwiththeEPZpopulation,whichhavebeenusedtoquantifydemographicsspecifictotheEPZ,and"mobilizationtime"whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180

%ofHouseholds PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome RiverBendStationF 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ATTACHMENTATelephoneSurveyInstrument RiverBendStationF 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TelephoneSurveyInstrument Hello, my name is _______________ and I'm working COL.1 Unused on a survey being made for [insert marketing firm COL.2 Unused name] designed to identify local travel patterns COL.3 Unused in your area. The survey will be used for emergency plans in response to hazards that are not weather-related. The information obtained will be used in a traffic engineering study and in COL.4 Unused connection with an update of the parish's COL.5 Unused emergency response plans. Your participation in this

survey will greatly enhance the parish's emergency preparedness program. Sex COL. 8 1 Male 2 Female

INTERVIEWER: ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD.

(Terminate call if not a residence)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

DO NOT ASK:

1A. Record area code. To Be Determined

COL. 9-11 1B. Record exchange number. To Be Determined

COL. 12-14

__________________________________________________________________________________________

2. What is your home Zip Code Col. 15-19

3. In total, how many cars, or other vehicles COL.20 are usually available to the household? 1 ONE (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE)

X REFUSED

__________________________________________________________________________________________

4. How many people usually live in this COL.21 COL.22 household? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 1 ONE 0 TEN 2 TWO 1 ELEVEN 3 THREE 2 TWELVE 4 FOUR 3 THIRTEEN 5 FIVE 4 FOURTEEN 6 SIX 5 FIFTEEN 7 SEVEN 6 SIXTEEN 8 EIGHT 7 SEVENTEEN 9 NINE 8 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE X REFUSED

RiverBendStationF 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 5. How many children living in this COL.23 household go to local public, 0 ZERO private, or parochial schools? 1 ONE (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE X REFUSED

6. How many people in the household COL.24 SKIP TO commute to a job, or to college, 0 ZERO Q. 12 at least 4 times a week? 1 ONE Q. 7 2 TWO Q. 7 3 THREE Q. 7 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 7 5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 12

INTERVIEWER: For each person identified in Question 6, ask Questions 7, 8, 9, and 10.

7. Thinking about commuter #1, how does that person usually travel to work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER.)

Commuter #1 Commuter #2 Commuter #3 Commuter #4 COL.25 COL.26 COL.27 COL.28 Rail 1 1 1 1

Bus 2 2 2 2

Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3

Driver Car/Van 4 4 4 4

Park & Ride (Car/Rail, Xpress_bus) 5 5 5 5

Driver Carpool-2 or more people 6 6 6 6

Passenger Carpool-2 or more people 7 7 7 7

Taxi 8 8 8 8

Refused 9 9 9 9

8. What is the name of the city, town or community in which Commuter #1 works or attends school? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER.) (FILL IN ANSWER.)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 _________ _____ _________ _____ _________ _____ _________ _____ City/Town State City/Town State City/Town State City/Town State COL.29 COL.30 COL.31 COL.32 COL.33 COL.34 COL.35 COL.36 COL.37 COL.38 COL.39 COL.40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 RiverBendStationF 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

9. How long would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college?

(REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER.) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL.41 COL.42 COL.43 COL.44 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY _____) (SPECIFY _____)

9 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL.45 COL.46 COL.47 COL.48 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY _____) (SPECIFY _____)

9 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

RiverBendStationF 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110. Approximately how long does it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER.) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 49 COL.50 COL.51 COL. 52 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY _____) (SPECIFY _____)

9 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 53 COL. 54 COL. 55 COL. 56 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES LESS THAN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 15 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 5 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 8 36-40 MINUTES 16 MINUTES AND 1 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES AND 1 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS 8 OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY _____) (SPECIFY _____)

9 9 0 0 X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

11. When the commuters are away from home, is there a vehicle at home that is available for evacuation during any emergency?

Col. 57 1 Yes 2 No 3 Don't Know/Refused

RiverBendStationF 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.112. Would you await the return of family members prior to evacuating the area?

Col. 58 1 Yes 2 No 3 Don't Know/Refused

13. How many of the vehicles that are usually available to the household would your family use during an evacuation?

COL.59 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.) 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE)

X REFUSED

14. How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS.)

COL.60 COL.61 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 15-30 MINUTES 2 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES 3 31-45 MINUTES 3 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES - 1 HOUR 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 15 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 5 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES X 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 45 MINUTES Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Y 5 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS

COL.62 1 DON'T KNOW

15. Would you take household pets with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?

Col. 58 1 Yes 2 No 3 Don't Know/Refused

Thank you very much. __________________________

(TELEPHONE NUMBER CALLED)

If requested:

For Additional information

Contact your Parish Emergency Management Office EastBatonRougeOHSEP3892100 EastFelicianaParishOHSEP2441142 PointeCoupeeParishOHSEP6943737 WestBatonRougeParishOHSEP3461577 WestFelicianaParishOHSEP6356428 APPENDIXGTrafficManagementPlan RiverBendStationG 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLANNUREG/CR 7002indicatesthattheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesshouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwereprovidedintheRiverBendDataResourcesBook.TheseplanswerereviewedandtheTCPsweremodeledaccordingly.G.1 TrafficControlPointsAsdiscussedinSection9,trafficcontrolpointsatintersections(whicharecontrolled)aremodeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapre timedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasatrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypewaschangedtoanactuatedsignalintheDYNEVIIsystem.TableK 2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumberforthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.IftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeingaTrafficControlPoint,thecontroltypeisindicatedasaTCPinTableK 2.FigureG 1mapstheTCPsidentifi edintheRiverBendDataResourcesBook.TheseTCPSareconcentratedinJacksonalongSR10andNewRoadsalongSR1,whichwereidentifiedasthecongestedareas/roadwaysinSection7.3.ThesesTCPswouldbemannedduringevacuationbytrafficguideswhowoul ddirectevacueesintheproperdirectionandfacilitatetheflowoftrafficthroughtheintersection s.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,theanimationofevacuationtrafficconditionsindicatesonecriticalintersectionwhichwouldbeabottleneckduringevacuation.ThiscriticalintersectionwascrosscheckedwiththeEPZparishemergenc yplansandisnotcurrentlyaTCP.TheprimaryevacuationrouteforPAS2,5,6,7and10,travelsalongSR10throughJacksontotheintersectionwithSR19.AtSR19evacuationroutingencouragestherightturnontoSR19totravelsouthboundintoBatonRouge.FigureG 2isanaerialimageoftheintersection.ItisproposedthatanofficerbeplacedatthisintersectiontohelpfacilitateevacueestravelingsouthboundonSR19andeastboundonSR10.Theintersectionisafour waystopwhichsignificantlyimpactstheETE.Asensitivitystudywasrunwit houtthisTCPandresultedinanETEof3:35forScenario6Region3atthe90 thpercentile.AllETEinthisstudyincludemodelingthisTCP,asshowninTable7 1,theETEforScenario6Region3is3:10atthe90 thpercentile.FigureG 3providesapotentiallayoutforthisTCP.TheTCPwasrecommendedtoEntergypersonnelattheRiverBendStation.G.2 AccessControlPointsItisassumedthatACPswillbeestablishedwithin2hoursoftheadvisorytoevacuatetodiscouragethroughtravelersfromusingmajorthroughrouteswhichtraversetheEPZ.AsdiscussedinSection3.6,externaltrafficwasonlyconsideredonthreeroute s-US61,US190andSR19whichtraversetheEPZinthisanalysis.Thegenerationoftheseexternaltripsceasedat2hoursaftertheadvisorytoevacuateinthesimulation.AccordingtotheStates'emergencyplans,theaccesscontrolpointsintheRBSEPZwillbe RiverBendStationG 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1mannedaftertheadvisorytoevacuatehasbeengivenbylocalparishpolice.ItisrecommendedthatACPsontheeasternandwesternboundariesoftheEPZalongthethreeaforementionedroutesbethetoppriorityinassigningmanpowerandequipmentastheyarethemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ,whichwilltypicallycar rythehighestvolumeofthroughtraffic.

RiverBendStationG 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsfortheRBSSite RiverBendStationG 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 2.IntersectionofStateRoute10andStateRoute19 RiverBendStationG 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 3.ProposedTrafficControlPointatintersectionofStateRoute10andStateRoute19MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDESTOP SIGNTRAFFIC BARRICADE2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATEJACKSONLA HWY 10 & LA HWY 19SHADOW -01SHADOW REGIONTOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:PAS:KEY8 ft2 ft3 ftTCP 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1Traffic Guide(s)6Traffic Cones1.Discourage northbound movement on LA Hwy 19.2.Discourage westbound movement on LA Hwy 10.**Traffic Guide should position himself safelyLOCATION PRIORITY RiverBendStationH 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1H EVACUATIONREGIONSThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH 1)andmapsofallEvacuationRegions.ThepercentagespresentedinTableH 1arebasedonthemethodologydiscussedinassumption5ofSection2.2andshowninFigure2 1.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhousehol dswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.

ML13023A072

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