ML13023A035

Kld TR-500, Rev 1, Palisades Power Plant Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report

ML13023A035
Person / Time
Site:	Palisades
Issue date:	08/31/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Entergy Nuclear Operations
Shared Package
ML130230023	List: CNRO-2012-00013, Kld TR-502, Rev. 1, Waterford 3 Steam Electric Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report ML13023A006 ML13023A023 ML13023A024 ML13023A025 ML13023A028 ML13023A031 ML13023A035 ML13023A048 ML13023A070 ML13023A072 ML13023A073
References
CNRO-2012-00013, ENOC-2012-00038 KLD TR-500, Rev 1
Download: ML13023A035 (386)

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August2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-500 PalisadesPowerPlantDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforEntergy,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com PalisadesPowerPlantiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 21.2ThePalisadesPowerPlantLocation..........................................................................................1 31.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 51.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy..............................................................................................1 92STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 73.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 103.4SeasonalTransientPopulation.................................................................................................3 113.5Employees...............................................................................................................................

.3 153.6Medi calFacilities......................................................................................................................3 193.7TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 193.8SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 213.9SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 214ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtothePalisadesStudyArea....................................................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Freeways............................................................................................................................4 74.3.4Intersections......................................................................................................................4 84.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 85ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background...............................................................................................................................

.5 15.2FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 125.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 135.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 175.4.3TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................5 186DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 17.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................7 17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 17.3PatternsofTr afficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 27.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 37.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 47.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 57.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 5 PalisadesPowerPlantiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 48.3SpecialFacilityDemand.............................................................................................................8 48.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................8 58.5SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................8 109TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUATIONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 111SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS...........................................................................11 112CONFIRMATIONTIME..................................................................................................................12 1 PalisadesPowerPlantiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofAppendicesA.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 13C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 13C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 13C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C 16D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.SPECIALFACILITYDATA......................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.3SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F 3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F 3F.3.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F 8F.3.3TimeDistributionResults.....................................................................................................F 10F.4Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 13G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1G.2AccessControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1HEVACUAT IONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.PAABOUNDARIES..............................................................................................................................L 1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofCha ngesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentionallyskipped PalisadesPowerPlantivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofFiguresFigure1 1.PalisadesPowerPlantLocation..............................................................................................1 4Figure1 2.PPPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork............................................................................................1 7Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.PalisadesEPZ...........................................................................................................................3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 5Figure3 3.PermanentRe sidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 6Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 8Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector.....................................................................................................3 9Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 13Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 14Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 17Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 18Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams..........................................................................................................4 10Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 11Figure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................5 15Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 21Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion....................................................................................................................................5 23Figure6 1.PPPEPZPAA............................................................................................................................6 4Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................7 14Figure7 2.PalisadesShadowRegion......................................................................................................7 15Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................7 16Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 17Figure7 5.CongestionPa tternsat1Hour45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.........................7 18Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 19Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat2Hours,45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................7 20Figure7 8.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03......................................................7 21Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03......................................................7 21Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................7 22Figure7 11.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................7 22Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03....................................................7 23Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................7 23Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................7 24Figure7 15.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................7 24Figure7 16.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................7 25Figure7 18.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................7 26Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................7 26Figure7 20.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03..................................................7 27Figure7 21.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR03..................................................7 27Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................8 13Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes.............................................................................................8 14Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandSchoolReceptionCenters.............................10 2Figure10 2.-EvacuationRouteMap.....................................................................................................10 3 PalisadesPowerPlantvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 5FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 7FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 15FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolsandPreschoolswithintheEPZ.................................................................................E 10FigureE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 11FigureE 3.Majo rEmployerswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 12FigureE 4.RecreationAreaswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 13FigureE 5.MarinaswithintheEPZ.........................................................................................................E 14FigureE 6.LodgingwithintheEPZ..........................................................................................................E 15FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 3FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 4FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F 5FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F 6FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 7FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 8FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F 9FigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets...........................................................................................F 9FigureF 10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWor k...........................................................................F 11FigureF 11.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F 11FigureF 12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 12FigureF 13.TimetoClearDrivewayof6" 8"ofSnow...........................................................................F 13FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsModeledinDYNEVforthePPPSi te...................................................G 2FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 3FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 4FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 6.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 7.RegionR07.............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H 10FigureH 9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H 12FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 7FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 7FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J 8FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J 8FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5).......................................................................................................................J 9FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)................J 9FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J 10FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8).............................J 10FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)..............J 11FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)...........................J 11 PalisadesPowerPlantviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11).........................J 12FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)...................................................................................................................J 12FigureJ 13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)......................................................................................................................J 13FigureJ 14.ETEandTripGeneration:Su mmer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)................................................................................................................J 13FigureK 1.PalisadesLink NodeAnalysisNetwork...................................................................................K 2FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K 3FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Gri d2.....................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K 9FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K 10FigureK 10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K 11FigureK 11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K 12FigureK 12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K 13FigureK 13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K 14FigureK 14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K 15FigureK 15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K 16FigureK 16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K 17FigureK 17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K 18FigureK 18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K 19FigureK 19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K 20FigureK 20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K 21FigureK 21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K 22FigureK 22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K 23FigureK 23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K 24FigureK 24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K 25FigureK 25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K 26FigureK 26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25...............................................................................K 27FigureK 27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26...............................................................................K 28FigureK 28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27...............................................................................K 29FigureK 29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28...............................................................................K 30FigureK 30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29...............................................................................K 31FigureK 31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30...............................................................................K 32FigureK 32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31...............................................................................K 33FigureK 33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32...............................................................................K 34FigureK 34.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33...............................................................................K 35FigureK 35.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34...............................................................................K 36FigureK 36.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35...............................................................................K 37FigureK 37.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36...............................................................................K 38FigureK 38.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37...............................................................................K 39FigureK 39.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38...............................................................................K 40FigureK 40.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39...............................................................................K 41 PalisadesPowerPlantviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 41.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40...............................................................................K 42ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 1Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 5Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons..........................................................................................................1 10Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 7Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPAA............................................................3 4Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 7Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 12Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 16Table3 6.Pa lisadesEPZExternalTraffic.................................................................................................3 20Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 22Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 23Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoClear6" 8"ofSnow......................................................5 10Table5 7.MappingDistributionstoEvents............................................................................................5 12Table5 8.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 13Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuation.....................5 20Table5 10.TripGeneratio nHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.......................5 22Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions...........................................................................................6 3Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 5Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 6Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario..................................................................................................6 7Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation...........................7 9Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 10Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 11Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 12Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 13Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................8 15Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................8 16Table8 3.TemporaryHostFacilitiesforEvacuatedSchoolchildren.......................................................8 17Table8 4.SpecialFacilityTransitDemand.............................................................................................8 18Table8 5.Su mmaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 19Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 20Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................8 22Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain...............................................................................8 24Table8 9.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow.............................................................................8 26Table8 10.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes........................................................................8 28 PalisadesPowerPlantviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 11.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................8 29Table8 12.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-Rain........................................................8 30Table8 13.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow.......................................................8 31Table8 14.SpecialFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather...............................................8 32Table8 15.SpecialFacili tyEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain................................................................8 33Table8 16.SpecialFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow..............................................................8 34Table8 17.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates....................................8 35Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation..............12 2TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 8TableE 1.SchoolsandPre SchoolswithintheEPZ..................................................................................E 2TableE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 4TableE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 5TableE 4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 6TableE 5.MarinaswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E 7TableE 6.Lo dgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 8TableF 1.PalisadesTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan.............................................................................F 2TableH 1.PercentofPAAPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion.........................................................H 2TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.Sa mpleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 3TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J 4TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)...........................................................................................................................J 5TableJ 5.Si mulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J 6TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 43TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled...........................................K 76TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1

PalisadesPowerPlantES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)forthePalisadesPowerPlant(PPP)locatedinVanBuren,Michigan.ETEarepartoftherequiredplanningbasisandprovideEntergyandStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProt ectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,December2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMA REP 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. 10CFR50,AppendixE-"EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities"OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinNovember2010andextendedoveraperiodof1year/6months.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingswithEntergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010.StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS)mapsoftheareainthevicinityofthePalisadesthenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofth ehighwaynetwork. SynthesizedthisinformationtocreateananalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey. Datacollectionforms(providedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting)werereturnedwithdatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andspecialfacilitiesinAllegan,Berrien,VanBurenCounties.Telephonecallstospecificfacilit iessupplementedthedataprovided.

PalisadesPowerPlantES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Thetrafficdemandandtrip generationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto5ProtectiveActionAreas(PAA).ThesePAAsarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof10EvacuationRegions. Thetime varyingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain,Snow).Onespecialeventscenario,SouthHaven'sFourthofJulyCelebration,wasconsidered.OneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonInterstate196northboundforthedurationoftheevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5mileswereevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: ArapidlyescalatingaccidentatthePalisadesPowerPlantthatquicklyassumesthestatusofGeneralEmergencysuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisvirtuallycoincidentwiththesirenalert,andnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntiltheastatedpercentag eofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncentersortemporaryhostschoolsloca tedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtonotpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthecountyevacuationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllikewisebeevacuatedwithpublictransit,asneeded:bus,van,orambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEarecalculat edforthetransit dependentevacuees,forhomeboundspecialneedspopulation,andforthoseevacuatedfromspecialfacilities.ComputationofETEAtotalof140ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe10EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe14 PalisadesPowerPlantES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EvacuationScenarios(10x14=140).SeparateETEarecalculatedfortransit dependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofETEassumesth at20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidetheimpactedregion,willelectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.Theimpedanceth atcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter in place.Once90%ofthe2 mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillev acuate(non compliance)eventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter in place.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Ea chlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwi thfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),thensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofth epopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.Thesestatisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.Theuseofapublicoutreach(information)programtoemphasizetheneedforevacueestominimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(securethehome,as sembleneededclothes, PalisadesPowerPlantES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1medicines,etc.)shouldalsobeconsidered.TrafficManagementThisstudyreferencesthecomprehensivetrafficmanagementplansprovidedbyAllegan,Berrien,andVanBurenCounties,andidentifiescriticalintersections.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformofFiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6displaysamapofthePPPEPZshowingthelayoutofthe5PAAsthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3 1presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachPAAba sedonthe2010Censusdata. Table6 1defineseachofthe10EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofPAA. Table6 2liststheEvacuationScenarios. Tables7 1and7 2arecompilationsofETE.The sedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherregionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Tables7 3and7 4presentsETEforthe2 milere gionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table8 7presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. Table8 11presentsETEforthetransit dependentpopulationingoodweather. FigureH 5presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR05)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.Mapsofal lregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor140uniquecases-acombinationof10uniqueEvacuationRegionsand14uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheseETErangefrom1:55(hr:min)to2:35atthe90 thpercentile. InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile.ThisistheresultofthecongestionwithintheEPZ.Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,rel ativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.SeeFigures7 8through7 21. InspectionofTable7 3andTable7 4indicatesthatastagedevacuationprovidesno PalisadesPowerPlantES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1benefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles(compareRegionsR02,R04andR05withRegionsR08,R09andR10,respectively,inTables7 1and7 2).SeeSection7.6foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios3(summer,week end,midday,goodweather)and13(summer,weekend,midday,4 thofJulyCelebration)inTable7 2indicatesthatthespecialeventdoesnotmateriallyaffecttheETE.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonI 196fromtheinterchangewithCountyHighway378(Exit13)totheinterchangewithCountyHighway89(Exit32)-doeshaveamaterialimpacton90 thpercentileETE.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. SouthHavenandWatervlietarethetwomostcongestedareasduringanevacuation.ThelastlocationinthestudyareatoexhibittrafficcongestionisinGrandJunction;thisistheresultofanat graderailroadcrossingimmediatelybeforetheoffsetintersectionofCR 388andCR 215.Travelspeedsandroadwaycapacitiesreducesignificantly,causingcongestionforthoseevacueestravelingtowardsthereceptioncentersinBloomingdale.AllcongestionwithintheEPZclearsby2hoursand45minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 7. Separat eETEwerecomputedforschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpersonsandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Theaveragesingle waveETEforthesefacilitiesarewithinasimilarrangeasthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileforschools,medicalfacilitiesandhomeboundspecialneeds.Thetransit dependentbusesdonotmobilizeuntil90%ofthepopulationhasmobilizedandisthereforelonger.SeeSection8. Table8 5indicatesthattherearenotenoughbusestoevacuatetheschool,specialfacilityandtransit dependentpopulationswithintheEPZinasinglewave;transportationresourcesforspecialfacilitieswerenotprovidedbymedicalfacilitiesorbythecountiesforthisstudy.SeeSections8.4and8.5. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileisinsensitivetoreductionsinthebasetripgenerationtimeof41/2hoursduetothetrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion.SeeTableM 2.

PalisadesPowerPlantES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.PPPEPZPAA PalisadesPowerPlantES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationPAA2000Population2010Population11,8891,54821,9802,20532,3822,221411,42910,356515,91614,675TOTAL33,59631,005EPZPopulationGrowth: 7.71%

PalisadesPowerPlantES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAA12345R012mileringXR025 mileringXXXR03FullEPZXXXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R04N,NNE,NEXXENE,E,ESESeeRegionR02R05SE,SSE,S,SSW,SWXXWSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion01Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R06N,NNE,NEXXXXENE,E,ESESeeRegionR03R07SE,SSE,S,SSW,SWXXXXWSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion02StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R08ENE,E,ESEXXXR09N,NNE,NEXXR10SE,SSE,S,SSW,SWXXWSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion01PAA(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuatePAA(s)Shelter in PlacePAA(s)Evacuate PalisadesPowerPlantES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodSouthHavenFourthofJulyCelebration14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonI 1961Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

PalisadesPowerPlantES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR012:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R022:052:051:552:001:552:052:052:152:002:052:152:001:552:05R032:052:052:052:151:552:052:102:302:002:052:202:002:152:052 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR042:002:051:552:001:552:052:052:152:002:002:102:001:552:00R052:002:051:552:001:552:052:052:152:002:052:102:001:552:005 MileRingandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR062:002:052:102:101:552:052:052:251:552:002:151:552:152:05R072:052:102:002:101:552:052:102:252:002:052:202:002:002:05StagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR082:052:052:002:002:002:052:102:352:052:052:302:002:002:05R092:052:052:002:002:052:052:052:352:002:052:302:052:002:05R102:002:051:552:001:552:052:052:252:002:052:252:001:552:00 PalisadesPowerPlantES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:402 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:355 MileRingandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR064:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R074:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40StagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR084:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R094:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R104:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35 PalisadesPowerPlantES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5 MilesR012:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R022:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R042:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R052:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:002:002:00StagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR082:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R092:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R102:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00 PalisadesPowerPlantES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5 MilesR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R044:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR084:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R094:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R104:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30 PalisadesPowerPlantES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoTHF(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoTHF(min)ETEtoTHF(hr:min)AlleganCountySchoolsNorthShoreElementary90153.855.051:5014.6202:10BerrienCountySchoolsTri CountyHeadStart90151.923.551:500.001:50HeadStartColoma90151.923.551:500.001:50WashingtonElementary90151.824.451:500.001:50SalemLutheranPreschool90151.022.431:500.001:50WatervlietNorthElementary90151.06.3101:550.412:00VanBurenCountySchoolsBangorHighSchool90154.550.261:555.072:00BangorMiddleSchool90154.550.261:555.072:00BangorMiddleSchool90154.550.261:555.072:00SouthWalnutElementarySchool90154.150.251:505.072:00HeadStartBangor90155.450.271:555.072:00HeadStartBangorMigrant90154.850.261:555.072:00WoodSchool90156.137.7101:550.312:00HeadStartHartford90150.524.721:500.821:50CovertElementarySchool90159.246.6122:0013.2182:15CovertHighSchool90159.246.6122:0013.2182:15CovertMiddleSchool90159.246.6122:0013.2182:15BaselineMiddleSchool90153.855.051:5014.6202:10HeadStartMigrantatLincolnElementary90159.249.8122:0014.6202:20 PalisadesPowerPlantES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoTHF(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoTHF(min)ETEtoTHF(hr:min)L.C.MohrHighSchool901513.249.8162:0514.6202:25LincolnElementarySchool901514.249.8182:0514.6202:25MapleGroveElementarySchool90158.949.8112:0014.6202:20St.PaulLutheranSchool90157.649.8101:5514.6202:15BrightBeginningsChristian90158.753.7101:5514.6202:15HeadStartPeaceLutheran90157.655.091:5514.6202:15HeadStartSouthHaven90157.855.091:5514.6202:15St.BasilCatholicSchool90157.651.791:5514.6202:15ColomaElementarySchool90150.134.411:500.001:50ColomaMiddleSchool90150.134.411:500.001:50ColomaJuniorHighSchoolTemporaryHostFacilityonPremisesColomaHighSchoolTemporaryHostFacilityonPremisesMaximumforEPZ:2:05Maximum:2:25AverageforEPZ:1:55Average:2:05

PalisadesPowerPlantES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherRouteNumberNumberofbusesOne WaveTwoWaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoRec.Ctr(miles)TravelTimetoRec.Ctr(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)121059.155.010302:2520.22751037304:1521259.155.010302:4520.22751037304:35211059.055.010302:2514.61951029304:0021259.055.010302:4514.61951029304:20321058.555.09302:2516.52251031304:0521258.555.09302:4516.52251031304:25421055.855.06302:2515.62151027303:5531255.835.410302:4515.62151028304:20521056.135.410302:3016.12151029304:0531256.138.110302:4516.12151029304:20621057.935.413302:3018.22451034304:1521257.938.112302:5018.22451034304:35MaximumETE: 2:50MaximumETE: 4:35AverageETE: 2:40AverageETE: 4:15 PalisadesPowerPlantES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 5.RegionR05 PalisadesPowerPlant1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)forthePalisadesPowerPlant(PPP),locatedinVanBurenCounty,Michigan.ETEprovideStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,December2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionEntergyemergencyplanningpersonnelMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagenciesAllegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountyEmergencyManagementOfficesObtainCountyRadiologicalEmergencyPlansforPalisadesPowerPlantandspecialfacilitydataMichiganEmergencyManagementandHomelandSecurityDivisionoftheMichiganStatePoliceObtainStateofMichiganRadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessPlansforPalisadesPowerPlantLocalPoliceAgenciesReviewthetrafficmanagementplans PalisadesPowerPlant1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromEntergy.b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromAllegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountyEmergencyManagementOfficesandtheMichiganStatePolice(MSP)toidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyoftheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)highwaysystemandofareatrafficconditions.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromcensusfromlocalandstateagencies.e. ConductedarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.f. Conductedadatacollectionefforttoidentifyanddescribeschools,specialfacilities,majoremp loyers,transportationproviders,andotherimportantsourcesofinformation.2. EstimateddistributionsofTripGenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevac uationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelephonesurvey.3. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.4. Definedatrafficmana gementstrategy.TrafficcontrolisappliedatspecifiedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ).Localandstatepolicepersonnelshouldreviewalltrafficcontrolplans.5. UsedexistingProtectiveActionAreas(PAA)todefineEvacuationAreasorRegions.TheEPZispartitionedinto5PAAalongpoliticalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguousPAAforwhichETEarecalculated.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsat"SpecialFacilities"andfortransit dependentpersonsathome.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheIDYNEVsystem.a. Estimatedthetrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,Entergyandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM 1)to1HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.

PalisadesPowerPlant1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1thedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelinknoderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandsforeachRegionandforeachScenario.e. Specifiedthecandidatedestinationsofevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboun dmovementrelativetothelocationofthePalisadesPowerPlant.8. ExecutedtheIDYNEVmodelstoprovidetheestimatesofevacuationroutingandETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandSc enarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,medicalfacilities,etc.),forthetransit dependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.1.2 ThePalisadesPowerPlantLocationThePalisadesPowerPlantislocatedontheshoresofLakeMichiganinVanBurenCounty,Michigan.Thesiteisapproximately55milessou thwestofGrandRapids,Michiganand75milesnortheastofChicago,Illinois.TheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)consistsofpartsofAllegan,Berri enandVanBurenCounties.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingthePalisadesPowerPlant.Thismapidentifiesthecommunitiesintheareaandthemajorroads.

PalisadesPowerPlant1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.PalisadesPowerPlantLocation PalisadesPowerPlant1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewaysections,avalueof2250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe PalisadesPowerPlant1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereob served,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpre timed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakentogatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateel ementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).

PalisadesPowerPlant1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.PPPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork PalisadesPowerPlant1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DT A),modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbased,anddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuati onTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationofthePalisadesPowerPlant.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthataredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthese PalisadesPowerPlant1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1countermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththepreviousETEstudy.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: Adecreaseinpermanentresidentpopulation. VehicleoccupancyandTrip generationratesarebasedontheresultsofatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Voluntaryandshadowevacuationsareconsidered. Thehighwayrepresentationisfarmoredetailed.

PalisadesPowerPlant1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasisArcGISSoftwareusing2000USCensusblocks;Population=33,027ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused;Population=31,005ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancyThenumberofpeopleandthenumberofvehicleswereextractedfromthe2000Censusbycountytocalculateavehicleoccupancyrate.Vehicleoccupancyratesof1.40,1.47and1.41persons/vehiclewereusedforAllegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountyrespectively.2.40persons/household,1.25evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:2.0persons/vehicle.Residen tvehicles=16,169EmployeePopulationEmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedbytheChamberofCommerce.1.16employeespervehiclederivedfrom2000Census.Employees=1,912EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZbytheemployersthemselves.1.08employeespervehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults.Employees=797TransientPopulationListingsoftransientfacilities(parks,hotels,motels,recreational)wereprovidedbyemergencyplanningofficialsfromVanBuren,Allegan,andBerrienCounties.AdditionalinformationwasobtainedfromtelephonephonebooksandInternetsearches.Transients:15,102TransientestimatesbaseduponinformationprovidedabouttransientattractionsinEPZ,supplementedbyobservationsofthefacilitiesduringtheroadsurveyandfromaerialphotography.Transients=18,965SpecialFacilitiesSpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.SpecialFacilityPopulation=197SpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Currentcensus=224BusesRequired=7WheelchairBusRequired=10AmbulancesRequired=6SchoolPopulationSchoolpopulationbasedonphonecallstoeachfacility.Currentenrollment=7,979SchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Currentenrollment=7,219Busesrequired=111 PalisadesPowerPlant1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyVoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuatedNotconsidered.20percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)ShadowEvacuationNotconsidered.20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFigure7 2)NetworkSizeN/A795Links;556Nodes.RoadwayGeometricDataDescriptionsoftheroadwaynetworkwereobtainedfromthepreviousETEstudyandfromAllegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountyHighwayDepartments.Thenetworkwasalsosurveyedfornumberoflanes,pavementwidth,shouldertypeandwidth,postedspeedlimits,andinterchangeandintersectiongeometries.FieldsurveysconductedinNovemberof2010.Majo rintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter/HostSchool.DirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter/HostSchool.TransitDependentPopulationTransitdependent,includingspecialneedsindividuals,wouldbeevacuatedbybusorambulanceascoordinatedbyState,Countyandmunicipalemergencyofficials.EstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Atotalof733peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring50busestoevacuate.Anadditional21homeboundspecialneedspersonsneededarereportedwithinthethreecounties.Specialtransportationtoevacuate,2ambulances,1wheelchairaccessiblevan,1bus.RidesharingNotconsidered.50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideoutwithaneighbororfriend.

PalisadesPowerPlant1 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTripGenerationforEvacuationTripGenerationcurvesweregeneratedforthepermanentresident,specialfacilitiesandtransient(andemployee)populationgroups.Tripgenerationtimesspannedfrom30minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateto150minutes.Basedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween45and270minu tes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and180minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and90minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherNormal,Rain,orSnow.Thecapacityandfree flowspeedofallroadwaysinthenetworkisreducedby20%forheavyrainand25%forsnow.Normal,Rain,orSnow.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forsnow.ModelingTrafficSoftwareIntegratedSystem(TSIS)DYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.0.0SpecialEventsFourthofJulyparadeandfireworksshowinSouthHaven,MIattractsapproximately25,000spectators;all25,000spectatorswereconsideredtransients.FourthofJulycelebrationatNorthandSouthBeachinSouthHaven,MI.Attractsapproximately15,000people,35%ofwhichareconsideredtransients.Transients:4,302EvacuationCases6Regionsand16Scenariosproducing96uniquecases.10Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and14Scenariosproducing140uniquecases.EvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedforthe100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90thand100thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.

PalisadesPowerPlant1 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyEvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZ,100 thpercentileWinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:6:40SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:4:20WinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:4:40 SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:4:40 PalisadesPowerPlant2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.2.1 DataEstimates1. PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebaseduponavailabledatafromcount yemergencymanagementofficesandfromphonecallstospecificemployers.3. Populationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromcountyemergencymanagementofficesandfromphonecallstospecificfacilities.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCa pacityManual2010.5. PopulationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanalysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. Therelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromthetelephonesurvey.Averagevaluesof2.4personsperhouseholdand1.25evacuatingvehiclespe rhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesforspecialfacilitiesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.08employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. Parks:Vehicleoccupancyvariesbasedupondatagatheredfromlocaltransientfacilities.c. SpecialEven ts:TransientsattendingtheSouthHavenFourthofJulyCelebrationshowtravelasfamilies/householdsinasinglevehicle,andusedtheaveragehouseholdsizeof3.0personstoestimatethenumberofvehiclesbasedondatagatheredfromeventstaff.

PalisadesPowerPlant2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofPAAsthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002.3. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.4. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyofthePAAsincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.5. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).6. Atotalof14"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherco nditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareoutlinedinTable2 1.7. Scenario14considerstheclosureofasinglelanenorthboundonInterstate 196fromtheinterchangewithCountyRoad378(Exit13)totheendoftheanalysis networkattheinterchangewithBlueStarMemorialHighway(Exit30).8. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 1).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.1Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.

PalisadesPowerPlant2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodSouthHavenFourthofJulyCelebration14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonI 196NB2Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

PalisadesPowerPlant2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology PalisadesPowerPlant2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccidentthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofPAAsformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 52percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1co mmuter;46percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore24percent(52%x46%=24%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacuationtrip.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderationof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.5. AccessControlPoints(ACP)willbestaffedwithinapproximately120minutesfollowingthesirennotifications,todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofACPlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis120minutetimeperiod.6. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningattheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytrav elerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.

PalisadesPowerPlant2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17. Buseswillbeusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedschoolreceptioncenters.b. Itisassumedparentswillpickupchildrenatdaycarecenterspriortoevacuation.c. Buses,wheelchairvansandambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoReceptionCenters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolisinsession,aregivenpriorityinassignin gtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredround trips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.8. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthegeneralpopulationtoreceptioncent ersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillride sharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 3 ,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.9. Twotypesofadverseweatherscenariosareconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios;snowoccursinwinterscenariosonly.Itisassumedthattherainorsnowbeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepresentintheEPZisassumed.Itisassumedthatroadsarepassableandthattheappropriateagenciesareplowingtheroadsastheywouldnormallywhensnowing.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 4;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.

3InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswithotherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).4Agarwal,M.et.Al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.

PalisadesPowerPlant2 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport90studentsperbusforelementaryschoolsand65studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedondiscussionswithcountyofficesofemergencymanagement.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30peopleperbus.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationRain90%90%NoEffectSnow80%80%Cleardrivewaybeforeleavinghome(SeeFigureF 13)*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.

PalisadesPowerPlant3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsofthePalisadesEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifyfourdistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. SeasonalTransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandentertheareaandstayinaccommodationsotherthanhotels. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetobusinesseswithintheEPZonadailybasis.Estimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopul ationgroupsarepresentedforeachPAAandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationrose).ThePalisadesEPZissubdividedinto5PAAs.TheEPZisshowninFigure3 1.

PalisadesPowerPlant3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.40persons/household-SeeFigureF 1)andthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.25vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 8)wereadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.TheestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbythePAAandEPZboundaries.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatewhatthepopulationiswithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacrossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ,byPAAbasedonthismethodology.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaveragehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable3 2.Figure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromPalisades.This"rose"wasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbeargue dthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductionca nbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforatwoweekperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasi s,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.

PalisadesPowerPlant3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.PalisadesEPZ PalisadesPowerPlant3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationPAA2000Population2010Population11,8891,54821,9802,20532,3822,221411,42910,356515,91614,675TOTAL33,59631,005EPZPopulationGrowth: 7.71%Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPAAPAA2010Population2010ResidentVehicles11,54881022,2051,14932,2211,157410,3565,396514,6757,657TOTAL31,00516,169 PalisadesPowerPlant3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector PalisadesPowerPlant3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector PalisadesPowerPlant3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromPalisades(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuationvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthatfortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesNNNE1,024540NE1,616845ENE1,470768E2,2091,153ESE1,322693SE5,1752,699SSE2,2131,158S3,3781,764SSW5,8893,078SWWSWWWNWNWNNWTOTAL24,29612,698 PalisadesPowerPlant3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector PalisadesPowerPlant3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector PalisadesPowerPlant3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.ThePalisadesEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilit iesthatattracttransients,including: LodgingFacilities Beaches Parks Marinas Campgrounds GolfCourses FourWindsCasino LakeMichiganCollegeSurveysoflodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZwereconductedtodeterminethenumberofrooms,percentageofoccupiedrooms,andthenumberofpeopleandvehiclesperroomforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof2,382transientsin1,135vehiclesareassignedtolodgingfacilitiesintheEPZ.DatawasprovidedbyPalisadesonaveragedailyattendance,andpeakseasonforthebeachesintheEPZ.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof1,750transientsand538vehiclesareassignedtobeachesintheEPZ.SupplementedwithdataprovidedbyAllegan,Berri enandVanBurenCounties,phonecallstotheparksandrecreationalareas(includingtheGingerManRacewayandFourWindsNorthCasino)withintheEPZweremadetodeterminethenumberoftransientsvisitingeachofthoseplacesonatypicalday.Atotalof6,130transientsand2,893vehicleshavebeenassignedtoparksandrecreat ionalareaswithintheEPZ.DatawasprovidedbyBerrienandVanBurenCountiesonaveragedailyattendance,andpeakseasonforthemarinasintheEPZ.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof2,725transi entsand1,464vehiclesareassignedtomarinasintheEPZ.DataprovidedbyAllegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountiesalongwithphonecallstocampgroundswithintheEPZweremadetodeterminethenumberofcampsites,peakoccupancy,andthenumberofvehiclesandpeoplepercampsiteforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfortransientsateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof2,259transientsand949vehiclesareassignedtocampgroundsintheEPZ.TherearefourgolfcourseswithintheEPZ.Phonecallstogolfcoursesweremadetodeterminethenumberofgo lfersandvehiclesateachfacilityonatypicalpeakday,andthenumberofgolfersthattravelsfromoutsidethearea.Atotalof390transientsand100vehiclesare PalisadesPowerPlant3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1assignedtogolfcourseswithintheEPZ.Thereisonecommunitycollege,LakeMichiganCollege,locatedwithintheEPZ.Thecampusdoesnotprovidestudentlivingaccommodations,thereforeallstudentscommuteandaretreatedastransientpopulation.Thestudentpopulation,havingsimilartravelpatternstothoseofcommutingemployees,wasassumedtosharethesamevehicleoccupancyratesasemployees(1.0 8commutingstudents/vehicle).Atotalof240transientsand222vehicleswereassignedascommutingstudents.AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TablesE 4andE 5presentsthenumberoftransientsvisitingrecreationalareasandmari nas,respectively,whileTableE 6presentsthenumberoftransientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table3 4presentstransientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbyPAA.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddistancefromtheplant.3.4 SeasonalTransientPopulationThePalisadesEPZhasasecondarycategoryoftransientpopulationwhichisseasonalresidents.Thesepeoplewillentertheareaduringthesummermonthsandmaystayconsiderablylonger(severalweeksortheentireseason)thantheaveragetransientusingahotelormotel.Theseasonalpopulationuseotherlodgingfacilitiessuchascondos,beachhousesandsummerrentalsthatotherwisewouldnotbecapturedinatypicallod gingpopulation.Themethodologybehindcalculatingtheseasonalpopulationinvolvesusing2010CensusBlockdata.EachCensusBlockincludesinformationregardingthenumberofvacantandoccupiedhouseholds.UsingthisCensusdata,anaverag evacanthouseholdpercentagewascalculatedfortheentirePalisadesEPZ(31%).ItisassumedthatseasonalresidentswillberentinghomesneartheLakeMichiganshoreline.UsingonlythoseCensusblocksthatarewithinonemileoftheshoreline,thenumberofseasonalhomeswillbecalculated.Itisfurtherassumedthat31%ofthevacantho meswithintheseCensusblocksarenotrentalhomes(averagenumberofvacanthouseholdswithinthePalisadesEPZ).Todeterminetheseasonalpopulation,theremaininghouseholdsfromtheanalysisareconsideredtobeseasonalhouseholds.Anaveragehouseholdsizeof2.40personsperhouseholdisusedtodetermin etheseasonaltransientpopulation,and1.25evacuatingvehiclesperseasonalhouseholdisusedtodeterminethenumberofseasonaltransientvehicles.Thesenumbersareadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults(seeAppendixF).Itisestimatedthatthereisanadditionalseasonalpopulationof3,089transientsand1,536transientvehicleswithinthePalisadesEPZ.Th esenumbersareincludedwiththetransientpopulationinTable3 4aswellasFigure3 6andFigure3 7.

PalisadesPowerPlant3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesPAATransientsTransientVehicles11,1654152415168389250049,8454,66056,6483,094TOTAL18,9658,837 PalisadesPowerPlant3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector PalisadesPowerPlant3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector PalisadesPowerPlant3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintothreecategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ ThosewhoaremigratoryworkerswhocommuteintotheEPZdailytodoagriculturalworkThoseofth efirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.DataprovidedbyAllegan,BerrienandVanBurencountieswereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZforthoseemployerswhodidno tprovidedata.InTableE 3,theEmployees(MaxShift)ismultipliedbythepercentNon EPZfactortodeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.08employeespervehicleobtainedfromth etelephonesurvey(SeeFigureF 7)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajoremployers.Thoseofthethirdcategorywerenotconsideredasapartinthisstudy.Allegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountiesestimatethatthemigratoryworkforcewouldconstituteapproximately5%oftheEPZpopulationduringpeaktimes.However,dataonwheretheseindividualsareworkingisdifficulttoobtainbecauseitcanchangeonadailybasis.AsensitivitystudywasperformedtodeterminetheimpactonETEofchangesinresidentpopulation.TableM 3inAppendixMdocumentstheresultsofthisstudy;asindicateda10%change(twiceasmuchastheestimatedmigratoryworkforce)inpopulationhasnoimpactonETE.Therefore,consideringthemigratoryworkforceinthisstudywouldhavenoeffectonETE.Table3 5presentsnon EPZResiden temployeeandvehicleestimatesbyPAA.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector.

PalisadesPowerPlant3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesPAAEmployeesEmployeeVehicles122520827267341861735314290TOTAL797738 PalisadesPowerPlant3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector PalisadesPowerPlant3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector PalisadesPowerPlant3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.6 MedicalFacilitiesDatawereprovidedbythecountiesforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.TableE 2inAppendixEsummarizesthedatagathered.Section8detailstheevacuationofmedicalfacilitiesandtheirpatients.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesthatneedtobeprovideddependonthepatients'stateofhealth.Itisestimatedthatbusescantransportupto30people;wheelchairvans,upto4people;wheelchairbusesupto15people;andambulances,upto2people.3.7 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(external externaltrips)atthetimeofanaccident.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.ThesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ-I 194andI 94.ItisassumedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoentertheEPZduringthefirst120minute sfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.TheAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby2hours(accesscontrolpoints-ACP-areassumedtobeactivatedat120minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,th ereare7,188vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternal externaltripspriortotheactivationoftheACPandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and12)asdiscussedinSection6.

PalisadesPowerPlant3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.PalisadesEPZExternalTrafficUpNodeDnNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2DFactor 2HourlyVolumeExternalTraffic808989I 94Eastbound17,1140.1160.59931,986806060I 196Southbound17,1140.1160.59931,986808281I 94Westbound30,0630.1070.51,6083,216TOTAL: 7,1881 HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20112 HCM2010 PalisadesPowerPlant3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.8 SpecialEventOnespecialeventconsideredforthePalisadesstudywastheannualFourthofJulyCelebrationheldatboththeNorthandSouthBeachesinSouthHaven.ThedataprovidefortheeventwasbytheSeniorEmergencyPlanningCoordinator/HealthPhysicistatthePalisadesplant.Theeventissaidtodrawapproximately15,000a ttendees,9,750or65%ofwhoarelocalresidents.Theother5,250patronsor35%wasthebasisforadditionaltransientsforthespecialeventScenario13.Populationsstayingatlocalhotelswithinonemileofbothbeacheshavebeensubtractedfromthefinalnumberstoavoiddoublecountinglodgingtransients.Thedataprovidedreportedthattheaveragenumberofpersonspervehicleis3people.Theadditionalvehiclesaddedtotheroadweresplitbetweenbothbeacheswith60%toSouthBeachand40%toNorthBeachwiththeSouthBeachbeingslightlymoreutilized.Atotalof1,434vehicleswascalculat edforthisevent(5,250transientsattheevent-948transientsatlodgingfacilities,using3personspervehicle=1,434additionaltransientvehicles)wereincorporatedinonstreetparkingalongroadwayswithinonemileofthetwobeaches.Thespecialeventvehicletripsweregeneratedutilizingthesamemobilizationdistributionsastransients.3.9 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandissummarizedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.Thissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissection.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopul ation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof83,419peopleand46,036vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.

PalisadesPowerPlant3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandPAAResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees MedicalFacilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternalTrafficTotal11,548371,16522500002,97522,20552415720455003,19932,2215389200580003,746410,3562459,8451862021,9040022,738514,6753466,648314224,2800026,465ShadowRegion0000004,85904,859Total31,00573318,9657972247,2194,859063,982NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.

PalisadesPowerPlant3 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandPAAResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees MedicalFacilitiesSchoolsShadowVehiclesExternalTrafficTotal1810841520800001,44121,149716867017001,40831,15785000018001,68345,396104,66017334640010,33757,657173,09440161060011,281ShadowRegion0000002,5407,1889,728Total16,169508,837738402052,5407,18835,878NOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.

PalisadesPowerPlant4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,snow,fog,windspeed,ice)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)

PalisadesPowerPlant4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentand20percentforrainandsnow,respectively.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacit ymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeinters ectionswhereflowcanbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsortur nbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobecomethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theex istingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedincountyemergencyplansareextensiveandwereadoptedwithoutchange.Theperlanecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutes PalisadesPowerPlant4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1movement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecutingmovement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycl e;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:

2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 PalisadesPowerPlant4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexit yofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity PalisadesPowerPlant4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.

PalisadesPowerPlant4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtothePalisadesStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade) FreewaysEachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15TwolaneroadscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"Clas sI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A PalisadesPowerPlant4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 FreewaysRef:HCMChapters10,11,12,13Chapter10oftheHCM2010describesaprocedureforintegratingtheresultsobtainedinChapters11,12and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewa ycomponents.Chapter10alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomaticallyperformsthisintegrationprocess.Chapter11oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSfor"BasicFreewaySegments".Exhibit11 17oftheHCM2010presentscapacit yvs.freespeedestimates,whichareprovidedbelow.FreeSpeed(mph):55606570+Per LaneCapacity(pc/h):2250230023502400Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,free speedsandcapacitybasedonfieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtime varyingspeedsbasedondemand:capacityrelationships.Aconservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof2250pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyforfreeways,asshowninAppendixK.Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapa city,speed,densityandLOSforfreewayweavingsections.Thesimulationmodelcontainslogicthatrelatesspeedtodemandvolume:capacityratio.ThevalueofcapacityobtainedfromthecomputationalproceduresdetailedinChapter12dependsonthe"Type"andgeometricsoftheweavingsegmentan donthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).Chapter13oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacitiesoframpsandof"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofarampfreewayjunction:Thecapacityofthefreewayimmediatelydownstreamofanon ramporimmediatelyupstreamofanoff ramp;thecapacityoftheramproadway;andthemaximumflowrateenteringtherampinfluencearea.Inmostcases,thefreewaycapacityisthecontrollingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit13 8oftheHCM2010,anddependonthenumberoffreewaylanesandonthefreewayfreespeed.RampcapacityispresentedinExhibit13 10andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficinaccordwiththeproceduresinCh apter13oftheHCM2010.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemandrelativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly).

PalisadesPowerPlant4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3.4 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Whereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersect ionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuat edsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contra flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChap ter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"ThesystemunderstudyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.Itisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicat ethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantof PalisadesPowerPlant4 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink.

PalisadesPowerPlant4 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams PalisadesPowerPlant5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREGCR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundIngeneral,anaccidentatanuclearpowerplantischaracterizedbythefollowingEmergencyActionLevels(seeAppendix1ofNUREG0654fordetails):1. UnusualEvent2. Alert3. SiteAreaEmergency4. GeneralEmergencyAteachlevel,theFederalguidelinesspecifyasetofActionstobeundertakenbyth eLicensee,andbyStateandLocaloffsiteauthorities.AsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingaccidentwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterthesirennotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Itislikelythatalongertimewillel apsebetweenthevariousclassesofanemergency.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthiscase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhenth eAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenalert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthan PalisadesPowerPlant5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately183squaremilesandisengagedinawidevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromonei ndividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevacuationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertr avelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivingnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbyteleph one,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.Itisimportanttonotethattheshapeanddurationoftheevacuationtripmobilizationdistributionisimportantatsiteswheretrafficcongestionisnotexpectedtocausetheevacuationtimeestimatetoextendintimewellbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Theremainingdiscussionwillfocusonth eapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.

PalisadesPowerPlant5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4N/ASnowClearance 5 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.Ahousehold PalisadesPowerPlant5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1withintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbeforebeginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowtheseco ndsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweekendsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).TransientswillalwaysfollowoneofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicat edway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprecedingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthisstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccu rstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave,orremovingsnowonlyafterthepreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.

PalisadesPowerPlant5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

1. ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time PalisadesPowerPlant5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)that87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified0 0%5 7%10 13%15 27%20 47%25 66%30 87%35 92%40 97%45 100%

PalisadesPowerPlant5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00%4593.4%540.2%5093.9%1062.7%5593.9%1572.3%6098.6%2079.1%7599.3%2581.1%90100.0%3090.0%3591.1%4091.8%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.

PalisadesPowerPlant5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00%4088.8%521.9%4591.6%1041.2%5092.4%1556.0%5592.8%2072.3%6097.6%2576.3%7599.0%3085.1%90100.0%3587.1%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response

PalisadesPowerPlant5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate0 0%1519.0%3065.8%4569.2%6083.7%7590.2%9091.7%10592.7%12096.5%13598.1%15098.1%16598.3%18099.2%195100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response PalisadesPowerPlant5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.5,SnowClearanceTimeDistributionInclementweatherscenariosinvolvingsnowfallmustaddressthetimelagsassociatedwithsnowclearance.Itisassumedthatsnowequipmentismobilizedanddeployedduringthesnowfalltomaintainpassableroads.Thegeneralconsensusisthatthesnowplowingeffortsaresuccessfulforallbutthemostextremeblizzardswhentherateofsnowaccumulationexceedsthatofsnowclearanceoveraperiodofmanyhours.Consequently,itisreasonabletoassumethatthehighwaysystemwillremainpassable-albeitatalowercapacity-underthevastmajorityofsnowconditions.Nevertheless,forthevehiclestogainaccesstothehighwaysystem,itmaybenecessaryfordrivewaysandempl oyeeparkinglotstobeclearedtotheextentneededtopermitvehiclestogainaccesstotheroadways.Theseclearanceactivitiestaketime;thistimemustbeincorporatedintothetripgenerationtimedistributions.Thesedataareprovidedbythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 6.Notethatthoserespondents(45%)whoansweredthattheywouldnottaketimetocleartheirdrivewaywereassumedtobereadyimmediatelyatthestartofthisactivity.Essentiallytheywoulddrivethroughthesnowonthedrivewaytoaccesstheroadwayandbegintheirevacuationtrip.Table5 6.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoClear6" 8"ofSnowElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate045.0%1566.1%3087.1%4590.7%6096.8%7597.8%9098.2%10598.4%12099.6%135100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response PalisadesPowerPlant5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210 PercentElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHomeTimetoClearSnow PalisadesPowerPlant5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table5 7presentsthesummingpr oceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 7.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5DistributionsCand5DistributionEEvent5DistributionsDand5DistributionFEvent5Table5 8presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.

PalisadesPowerPlant5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).ETimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip,aftersnowclearanceactivities(Event5).FTimedistributionofresidentswithnocommutersreturninghome,leavingtobegintheevacuationtrip,aftersnowclearanceactivities(Event5).5.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor600responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnon PalisadesPowerPlant5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1parametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciplesareused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome,clearsnow)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 7,Table58);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles;4) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterth an3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.

PalisadesPowerPlant5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3.6) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bo thveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,no ta"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturning,nosnoworsnowineach).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,using0.0%10.0%20.0%

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90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.537.542.5 47.552.557.5 67.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution PalisadesPowerPlant5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1weightingbasedupontheprobabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,C,D,EandF.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter;snowclearancefollowsthepreparationfordeparture,andsoforth.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,C,D,EandF,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother,aretabulatedinTable5 9(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(14)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.

PalisadesPowerPlant5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAAscomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. PAAscomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinPAAsbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoption savailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthePAAscomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltrip saregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance).

PalisadesPowerPlant5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenon sheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*is2:00forallscenarios.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. Residentswithoutreturningcommutersc. Residentswithreturningcommutersandsnowconditionsd. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersandsnowconditionsFigure5 5presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommuters;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeis120minutesforgoodweatherand120minutesforsnowscenarios.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,approximately13 16%ofthepopulationadvisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationperiod,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 10providesthetripgenerationforstagedevacuation.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreasESF3SectionIII.BoftheAlleganCountyEmergencyPlansspecifiesthatwarningswillbeprovidedtothelocalareathroughmeanssuchasTheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)broadcast,AMandFMcommercialradiostations,televisionstations,thelocalEmergencyAlertSystem,aswellassirenwarningsystems.AdditionalinformationprovidedbyAllegan,Berrien,andVanBurenCountiesspecifiesthatboatersonLakeMichiganwillbenotifiedthroughmarinechannel16aswellasmarinepatrolboats.RecreationalfacilitieswillbenotifiedthroughthefacilitiesPAandwarningsystems.ThisinformationisalsopublishedinthePalisadesPowerPlantpublicinformationbrochure.

PalisadesPowerPlant5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AsindicatedinTable5 2,thisstudyassumes100%notificationin45minutes.Table5 9indicatesthatalltransientswillhavemobilizedwithin1hour45minutes.Itisassumedthatthis1hour45minutestimeframeissufficienttimeforboaters,campersandothertransientstoreturntotheirvehiclesandbegintheirevacuationtrip.

PalisadesPowerPlant5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)ResidentsWithCommutersSnow(DistributionE)ResidentsWithoutCommutersSnow (DistributionF)1157%7%0%1%0%1%21534%34%0%11%0%5%31535%35%5%27%2%17%41514%14%13%26%8%21%5155%5%18%11%13%16%6153%3%17%10%15%13%7152%2%14%4%14%9%8150%0%10%2%13%5%9300%0%12%5%17%6%10300%0%6%1%9%4%11300%0%3%2%5%2%12600%0%2%0%3%1%13600%0%0%0%1%0%146000%0%0%0%0%0%NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionsCandEforgoodweatherandsnow,respectively. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.

PalisadesPowerPlant5 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 80100060120180240300 PercentofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersReswithCommandSnowResnoCommwithSnow PalisadesPowerPlant5 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table510.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)ResidentsWithCommutersSnow(DistributionE)ResidentsWithoutCommutersSnow (DistributionF)1150%0%0%0%2150%2%0%1%3151%6%0%4%4153%5%2%4%5153%2%3%3%6154%2%3%3%7152%1%2%1%8152%0%3%1%93074%79%69%76%10306%1%9%4%11303%2%5%2%12602%0%3%1%13600%0%1%0%146000%0%0%0%*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 9)isthesameforUnstagedandStagedEvacuation.

PalisadesPowerPlant5 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300330

%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersReswithCommandSnowResnoCommwithSnowStagedResidentswithCommutersStagedResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommuters(Snow)StagedResidentswithnoCommuters(Snow)

PalisadesPowerPlant6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingPAAthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergency.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Atotalof10Regionsweredefinedwhichen compassallthegroupingsofPAAsconsidered.TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable6 1.ThePAAconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesectorbasedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thece ntralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesfromtheplant(RegionsR04andR05)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR06andR07).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,respect ively.RegionsR08throughR10areidenticaltoRegionsR02,R04andR05,respectively;however,thosePAAsbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2 mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.Atotalof14ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thus,thereareatotalof10x14=140evacuationcases.Table6 2isadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeachscenario.Table6 4presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThevehicleestimatespresentedinSection3arepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentages;thescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 3,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.Th epercentagespresentedinTable6 3weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof52%(thenumberofhouseholdswithatleastonecommuter)and46%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommuterthatwouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.Employmen tisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.

PalisadesPowerPlant6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedontheestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedthatonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeakduringsummerweekendsandless(45%)duringtheweek.AsshowninAppendixE,thereisasignificantamountoflodgingandcampgroundsofferingovernightaccommodationsintheEPZ;thus,transientactivityisestimatedtobehighduringeveninghours-45%forsummerand15%forwinter.Transientactivityonwinterweekendsisestimatedtobe30%.Seasonalpopulationisestimatedtobe100%duringsummermonths,and0%duringallothertimes.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 3,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheshadowregionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshadowregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 4forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:Onespecialevent-SouthHavenFourthofJulyCelebration-wasconsideredasScenario13.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario13,and0%forallotherscenarios.Itisestimatedthatsummerschoolenrollmentisapproximately10%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearforsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Schoolisno tinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbuse sforthetransit dependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentpopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.

PalisadesPowerPlant6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAA12345R012mileringXR025 mileringXXXR03FullEPZXXXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R04N,NNE,NEXXENE,E,ESESeeRegionR02R05SE,SSE,S,SSW,SWXXWSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion01Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R06N,NNE,NEXXXXENE,E,ESESeeRegionR03R07SE,SSE,S,SSW,SWXXXXWSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion02StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R08ENE,E,ESEXXXR09N,NNE,NEXXR10SE,SSE,S,SSW,SWXXWSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion01PAA(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuatePAA(s)Shelter in PlacePAA(s)Evacuate PalisadesPowerPlant6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.PPPEPZPAA PalisadesPowerPlant6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodSouthHavenFourthofJulyCelebration14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonI 1961Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

PalisadesPowerPlant6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadowSeasonalPopulationSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic124%76%100%45%0%100%100%100%100%100%

224%76%100%45%0%100%100%100%100%100%

310%90%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%

410%90%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%

510%90%100%45%0%100%100%100%100%100%

624%76%100%15%0%0%100%0%100%100%724%76%100%15%0%0%100%0%100%100%824%76%100%15%0%0%100%0%100%100%910%90%100%30%0%0%100%0%100%100%1010%90%100%30%0%0%100%0%100%100%1110%90%100%30%0%0%100%0%100%100%1210%90%100%15%0%0%100%0%100%100%1310%90%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%

1424%76%100%45%0%100%100%100%100%100%

ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees.................................................EPZemployeeswh oliveoutsidetheEPZTransients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow......................................................Residentsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SeasonalPopulation..................................PeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandentertheareatostayinaccommodationsotherthanhotels.SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTrafficTrafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbyaccesscontrolapproximately2hoursaftertheevacuationbegins.

PalisadesPowerPlant6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadowSeasonalPopulationSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles13,87112,2989223,8772,6841,53621507,18832,44723,87112,2989223,8772,6841,53621507,18832,447338715,782968,6152,5551,536507,18836,209438715,782968,6152,5551,536507,18836,209538715,782963,8772,5551,536502,87527,15863,87112,2989601,2922,690205507,18828,55473,87112,2989601,2922,690205507,18828,55483,87112,2989601,2922,690205507,18828,554938715,782962,5852,555507,18828,6431038715,782962,5852,555507,18828,6431138715,782962,5852,555507,18828,6431238715,782961,2922,555502,87523,0371338715,782968,6152,5551,5361,434507,18837,643143,87112,2989223,8772,6841,53621507,18832,447Note:Vehicleestimatesareforanevacuationof theentire EPZ(RegionR03)

PalisadesPowerPlant7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover10regionswithinthePalisadesPowerPlantEPZandthe14EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTabl e7 4.Table7 5definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZinPAAsforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevoluntaryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendationhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithinth eimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEforthePalisadesEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpeoplelocatedinPAAsoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,ar eassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedthat20percentofthosepeopleintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof24,296peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4fo rthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion,travelingawayfromthePalisadesPowerPlantlocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingevacuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAAscomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.2. PAAscomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshel terin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared.

PalisadesPowerPlant7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofthe2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 7illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthesummer,midweek,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario1).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedintheseFiguresbyathickredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.Congestiondevelopsrapidlyaroundconcentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecks.At30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE),Figure7 3displaysthedevelopingcongestionontheperipheryofSouthHaventothenortheastofPPPandalongCR 388(PhoenixHwy)towardsthetow nofGrandJunction.RedArrowHighwayalsoisexperiencingheavycongestioneastboundtowardHartfordasaresultoftransientsleavingtheFourWindsCasino.Interstate 196(I 196)andInterstate 94(I 94),whichareservicingtheexternal ex ternaltripsandtheenteringevacuatingtrips,isdisplayingonlymoderatetrafficdemand(LOSBandC)on PalisadesPowerPlant7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1thosesectionsexitingtheEPZintotheShadowRegion(northboundtothenorth;southboundtothesouthonI 196andeastboundonI 94totheeast;westboundonI 94tothewest).AtonehouraftertheATE,Figure7 4displayscongestionwithinthepopulationcenterofSouthHaven,in creasedcongestionalongevacuationroutesCR 43towardsBangorandCR 388towardsGrandJunction.HeavycongestioninthecommunitiesofColoma,Watervliet,Breedsville,BangorandHartfordisimpactingtherateoftraveloutoftheeasternandsouthernboundariesoftheEPZ.Themoderatecongestioninthesouthisaresul toftheconfluenceofEPZevacueesandshadowevacueesfromtheBentonHeightscommunity.At1hour45minutes,asshowninFigure7 5,congestioninBangor,ColomaandHartfordhavesubsided.CongestionstillpersiststhroughpartsofSouthHaven,Watervliet,andCR 388towardsGrandJunction.CongestioninthetownofLawrencehassurfacedduetotheclearingofcongestioninBangorandHartford(thesebottleneckshavebeenmeteringtrafficintoLawrencealongCR 215andRedArrowHighway).AqueueofevacuatingvehiclesisbackingupatthestopsignattheintersectionofCR 215andRedArrowHighway.CongestionhasclearedfromI 196andmoderatecongestionhasdevelopedalongI 94nearthetownofLawrence.CongestionhasclearedfromSouthHavenattwohoursaftertheATEandisbeginningtoclearinLawrenceandWatervliet.Figure7 6showspersistingcongestionalongCR 388towardsGrandJunction.CR 388isanevacua tionroutetowardsthereceptioncentersinBloomingdaleandGobles.TherailroadcrossingimmediatelybeforetheoffsetintersectionofCR 388andCR 215inGrandJunction,wheretravelspeedsandcapacityarereducedsignificantly.Finally,Figure7 7displaysanEPZthatisessentiallyclearofevacuatingtrafficat2hours,45minutesaftertheATE.TheloneremnantofcongestionisatthebottleneckdescribedaboveinGrandJunction,butclearsat2:50.7.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 8throughFigure7 21.Th eseFiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioconsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 8,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegintoevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshaveclea red.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeuntil PalisadesPowerPlant7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1throughTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall10EvacuationRegionsandall14EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3throughTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2 Mileregio nforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Theyareorganizedasfollows:TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 7.MostofthecongestionislocatedinPAAs4and5whicharebeyondthe5 milearea.However,trafficcongestionwithintheEPZdissipatesbytwohoursaftertheadvi sorytoevacuate;thisisreflectedinthesimilarityofthe90 thPercentileETEforallregions,whichisapproximatelytwohours.The100 thpercentileETEforallRegionsandforallScenariosarethesamevaluesasthemobilizationtimes.ThisfactimpliesthatthecongestionwithintheEPZdissipatespriortotheendofmobilization,asisdisplayedinFigure7 8.ComparisonofScenarios3and13inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-theSouthHavenFourthofJulyCelebration-haslittleimpactontheETEforthe90 thpercentile.Theadditional1,434vehiclespresentforthespecialeventincreasecongestiononthelocalroadsinSouthHavenandontherampstoI 196.However,I 196isneverfullycongested,andthereforethereisexcesscapacitytoaccommodatetheadditionalvehicles.Asaresult,the2and5 MileRegionsarenotaffected ,whiletheETEfortheentireEPZ(RegionR03)increasesby10minutes-notasignificantchange.

PalisadesPowerPlant7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonI 196fromtheinterchangewithCountyHighway378(Exit13)totheinterchangewithCountyHighway89(Exit32)-doesnothaveamaterialimpacton90 thpercentileETE.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,I 196doesnotexperiencesignificantlevelsofcongestion,andthereforethereducedcapacitystillexceedsdemand.7.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3andTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEcompiledfortheconcurrent(un staged)andstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR08throughR10ar ethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR02,R04andR05,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustshowthattheETEforthe2Mileregioncanbereducedwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheregionbetween2milesand5miles.Inallcases,asshowninthesetables,theETEforthe2mileregionisunchangedwhenastagedevacuationisimplemented.Thereasonforthisisthatthecongestionwithinthe5 mileareadoesnotextendupstreamtotheextentthatitpenetratestowithin2milesofthePPP.Consequently,th eimpedance,duetothiscongestionwithinthe5 milearea,toevacueesfromwithinthe2mileareaisnotsufficienttomateriallyinfluencethe90 thpercentileETEforthe2 milearea.Therefore,stagingtheevacuationtosharplyreducecongestionwithinthe5 milearea,providesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles.Whilefailingtoprovideassistancetoevacueesfromwithin2milesofth ePPP,stagingproducesanegativeimpactontheETEforthoseevacuatingfromwithinthe5milearea.AcomparisonofETEbetweenRegions,R08andR02;R09andR04;andR10andR05;revealsthatstagingretardsthe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthoseinthe2to5 mileareabyupto20minutes(seeTable7 1).ThisextendingofETEisduetothedelayinbeginningtheevacuationtrip,experiencedbythosewhoshelter,plustheeffectofthetrip generation"spike"(significantvolumeoftrafficbeginningtheevacuationtripatthesametime)thatfollowstheireventualATE,increatingcongestionwithintheEPZareabeyond2miles.Insummary,thestagedevacuationoptionprovidesnobenefitsandadverselyimpactsmanyevacueeslocatedbeyond2milesfromthePPP.7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek PalisadesPowerPlant7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain Snow* SpecialEvent SouthHavenFourthofJulyCelebration RoadClosure(AlaneonI 196NBisclosed)* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhilethes eScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawi nterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(10)forrainapply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andsnowarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(8)and(11)forsnowapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellin gto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewinddirection).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation:towardsN,NNE,NE,-* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.Theapplic abledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(RegionR01) To5Miles(RegionR02,R04andR05) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R06andR07)* EnterTable7 5andidentifytheap plicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthe PalisadesPowerPlant7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1distancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromthePalisadesPowerPlant.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionoftheplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionid entifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* IdentifytherowinthistablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes.

PalisadesPowerPlant7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionistowardthenortheast(NE).* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea5 mileradiusanddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 5andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary"forwinddirectiontowardtheNE(fromtheSW)andreadRegionR06inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR06.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR06;itcontainstheETEvalueof2:10.

PalisadesPowerPlant7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR012:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R022:052:051:552:001:552:052:052:152:002:052:152:001:552:05R032:052:052:052:151:552:052:102:302:002:052:202:002:152:052 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR042:002:051:552:001:552:052:052:152:002:002:102:001:552:00R052:002:051:552:001:552:052:052:152:002:052:102:001:552:005 MileRingandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR062:002:052:102:101:552:052:052:251:552:002:151:552:152:05R072:052:102:002:101:552:052:102:252:002:052:202:002:002:05StagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR082:052:052:002:002:002:052:102:352:052:052:302:002:002:05R092:052:052:002:002:052:052:052:352:002:052:302:052:002:05R102:002:051:552:001:552:052:052:252:002:052:252:001:552:00 PalisadesPowerPlant7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:402 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:355 MileRingandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR064:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40R074:404:404:404:404:404:404:405:404:404:405:404:404:404:40StagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR084:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R094:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35R104:354:354:354:354:354:354:355:354:354:355:354:354:354:35 PalisadesPowerPlant7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5 MilesR012:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R022:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R042:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R052:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:002:002:00StagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR082:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R092:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00R102:002:001:552:001:552:002:052:102:002:002:052:001:552:00 PalisadesPowerPlant7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5 MilesR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R044:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR084:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R094:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30R104:304:304:304:304:304:304:305:304:304:305:304:304:304:30 PalisadesPowerPlant7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionPAA12345R012mileringXR025 mileringXXXR03FullEPZXXXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R04N,NNE,NEXXENE,E,ESESeeRegionR02R05SE,SSE,S,SSW,SWXXWSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion01Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R06N,NNE,NEXXXXENE,E,ESESeeRegionR03R07SE,SSE,S,SSW,SWXXXXWSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion02StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R08ENE,E,ESEXXXR09N,NNE,NEXXR10SE,SSE,S,SSW,SWXXWSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion01PAA(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuatePAA(s)Shelter in PlacePAA(s)Evacuate PalisadesPowerPlant7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology PalisadesPowerPlant7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.PalisadesShadowRegion PalisadesPowerPlant7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PalisadesPowerPlant7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PalisadesPowerPlant7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat1Hour45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PalisadesPowerPlant7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PalisadesPowerPlant7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat2Hours,45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PalisadesPowerPlant7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 8.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 300306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25 300306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%

PalisadesPowerPlant7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 30 350306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 350306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%

PalisadesPowerPlant7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%0 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%

PalisadesPowerPlant7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%0 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%

PalisadesPowerPlant7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario9)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%0 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%

PalisadesPowerPlant7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%0 5 10 15 20 250306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario12)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%

PalisadesPowerPlant7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03Figure721.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR030 5 10 15 20 25 30 350306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25 300306090120150180210240270 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)2 MileRegion 5 MileRegion EntireEPZ 90%100%

PalisadesPowerPlant8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles.Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschools,medica lfacilities;and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepres entsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilit yTheseactivitiesconsumetime.Basedondiscussionwiththeoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbusmobilizationtimewillaverageapproximately90minutesextendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizat ionactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointheirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentpublicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsofthePalisadesEPZindicatesthatschoolchildrenwillbeevacuatedtotemporaryhostfacilitiesatemergencyactionlevelsofSiteAre aEmergencyorhigher,andthatparentsshouldpickschoolchildrenupathighschools.AsdiscussedinSection2,thisstudyassumesafastbreakinggeneralemergency.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtotemporaryhostfacilities.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.Itisas sumedthatchildrenatdaycarecentersarepickedupbyparentsorguardiansandthatthetimetoperformthisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions PalisadesPowerPlant8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtothereceptioncenters8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailabl eatthetimetheevacuationisadvised.Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.Table8 1presentsestimatesoftransit dependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransit dependentpersonswillevacuatebyride sharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedarid ewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransit dependentpersonsisbasedonanestimateofaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transi tvehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60children(roughlyequivalentto40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthenumberof"adultseats"takenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverageloadfactoranticipatedis(27/40)x100=68percent.Thus,iftheactualdemandforserviceexceedstheestimatesofTable8 1by50percent,th edemandforservicecanstillbeaccommodatedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.Table8 1indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor733people.Therefore,atotalof25busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.

PalisadesPowerPlant8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorride share,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredforthePalisadesEPZ:Where,A=PercentofhouseholdswithcommutersC=Percentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter Thesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(1.25avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(2%)willevacuatebypublictransitorride share.Theterm12,919(numberofhouseholds)x1.25x0.02,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(33%),whoareathome,equal(1.74 1).Th enumberofHHwherethecommuterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(12,919x0.33x0.52x0.54),as52%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,54%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergen cy.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(45%),whoareathome,equal(2.56-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto12,919x0.45x(0.52x0.54)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehi cles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.Theestimateoftransit dependentpopulationinTable8 1farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransit dependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbythecounties(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR 6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajorityofthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

PalisadesPowerPlant8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 2presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZforthe2011 2012schoolyear.ThisinformationwasprovidedbytheAllegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountymanagementagenciesinadditiontophonecallssurveyingsomeschool sforsupplementaldata.ThecolumninTable8 2entitled"BusesRequired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* Whilemanyhighschoolstudentsco mmutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(asdiscussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR 7002),theestimateofbusesrequiredforschoolevacuationdonotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto90forprimaryschoolsand65formiddleandhighschools.* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacuateintheirprivatevehicles.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.ItisrecommendedthatthecountiesintheEPZintroduceprocedureswherebytheschoolsarecontactedpriortothedispatchofbusesfromthedepot(approximatelyonehouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate),toascertainthecurr entestimateofstudentstobeevacuated.Inthisway,thenumberofbusesdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Theneedforbuseswouldbereducedbyanyhighschoolstudentswhohaveevacuatedusingprivateautomobiles(ifpermittedbyschoolauthorities).Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuateschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoride sharing.Table8 3presentsalistoftheschooltemporaryhostfacilitiesforeachschoolintheEPZ.Studentswillbetransportedtothesefacilitieswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.8.3 SpecialFacilityDemandTable8 4presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilit iesintheEPZ.Thereare224peopleidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,thesefacilities.ThecapacityandcurrentcensusforeachfacilitywereprovidedbytheAllegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThisdataispresentedinTable8 4.ThetransportationrequirementsforthespecialfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable8 4.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingth at2patientscanbeaccommodatedperambulancetrip;thenumberofwheelchairbusrunsassumes15wheelchairspertripandthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientspertrip.

PalisadesPowerPlant8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetimeoftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhat"inefficient",orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenterortemporaryhostfacilityaftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandthisdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransit dependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinapositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthepick uppoints.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTra nsitTripsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure8 1presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure8 1.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Itisassumedthatforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergencywithnoobservableindicationbeforethefact,driverswouldlikelyrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransit dependentfacilities.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerinadverseweather-100minuteswhenraining,110minuteswhensnowing.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)Basedondiscussionswithoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof15minutes(20minutesforrainand25minutesforsnow)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapick uproute(transit dependentbusroutes)estimationoftraveltimemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpick uppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:s=v 2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservicepassengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s,wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:

PalisadesPowerPlant8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespick uptimeperbusrunimplies30st opsperrun,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;totalloadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain,50minutesinsnow.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbytheAllegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountyemergencymanagementagenciesandaresummarizedinTable8 5.Alsoincludedinthetableisthenumberofbusesneededtoevacuateschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpopulation,andhomeboundspecialneeds(asdiscussedbelowinSection8.5).Thesenumbersindicatetherearenotsufficientenoughresourcesavailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave.Asaresult,discussionoftwo wa veevacuationandETEareprovidedbelow.Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus15minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusrout esalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriatetemporaryhostfacility.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.Eachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentoth eDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,foreachbusro ute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 6(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,100to105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:

PalisadesPowerPlant8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsintheEPZisshowninTable8 7throughTable8 9forschoolevacuation,andinTable8 11throughTable8 13forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransit dependentpersons,whicharediscussedlater.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedi stancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundarytotheReceptionCenterwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof45mph,40mph,and35mphforgoodweather,rainandsnow,respectively.SpeedswerereducedinTable8 7throughTable8 9andinTable8 11throughTable8 13to55mph(50mphforrain-10%decrease-and45mphforsnow-20%decrease)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhichexceed55mph,astheschoolbusspeedlimitforstateroutesinMichiganis55mph.Table8 7(goodweather),Table8 8(rain)andTable8 9(snow)presentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)TheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)Theelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachesthetemporaryhostfacility(THF).TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E(Forexample:90min.+15+6=111minutesor1:55,roundeduptothenearest5minutes,forBangorHighSchool,withgoodweather).TheevacuationtimetotheTHFisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityE F(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuaonme.EvacuationofTransit DependentPopulationThebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransit dependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure5 4(ResidentswithnoCommuters),90percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,approximately105minutes(115minutesforrain,125minutesforsn ow)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.PAA5hasthehighesttransit dependentpopulationsandrequiresmorebusesthananyotherPAAs(Table810).Assuch,anadditionalroutehasbeenidentifiedforPAA5.Thestartofserviceonallroutesisstaggeredingroupsby20minuteheadways,asshowninTable8 11throughTable8 13.ThesixbusroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure8 2anddescribedinTable8 10weredesignedbyKLDtoservicethemajorroutesthrougheac hPAA.ThePPPPublicInformationbrochure PalisadesPowerPlant8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1indicatesthoseneedingtransportationwilleitherrideshareorareinstructedtocallfortransportationtothenumberprovidedintheEASmessage.Itisassumedthatthoseneedingtransportationwillwalktonearestroadwayandflagdownabusorthebuseswilltraveltothehomesofthesepeople..Itisassumedthatresidentswillwalktoandcongregateatthesepre designatedpick uplocations,andthattheycanarriveatthestopswithinthe105minutebusmobilizationtime(goodweather).Thosebusesservicingthetransit dependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpick uproutes,thenproceedoutoftheEPZ.Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof30minutes(goodweather)isestimatedfor30individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwitheachstop.Longerpickuptimesof40minutesand50mi nutesareusedforrainandsn ow,respectively.Thetraveldistancealongtherespectivepick uprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoftware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEV,usingtheaforementionedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table8 11throughTable8 13presentthetransit dependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweather,rainandsnow,respectively.Forexample,theETEforthebusrouteservicingPAA1iscomputedas105+10+30=2:25forgoodweather.Her e,10minutesisthetimetotravel9.1milesat55mph,theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelforthisrouteat105minutes.TheETEforasecondwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers,aspreviouslydiscussed.Activity:TraveltoReceptionCenters/TemporaryHostFacilities(E F)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytothereceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtothereceptioncenter.ThereceptioncentersandtemporaryhostfacilitiesaremappedinFigure10 1.Foraone waveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwo waveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsideredseparatelywhenmakingaprotectiveactiondecision,sinceitcouldexceedtheETEforthegeneralpublic.Assumedbusspeedsof45mph,40mph,and35mphforgoodweather,rain,andsnow,respectively,willbeappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthetransit dependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(F G)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(G C)ThebusesassignedtoreturntotheEPZtoperforma"secondwave"evacuationoftransit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransit dependentpeoplewhomobilizedmorequickly.Thefirstwaveoftransit dependentpeopledepartthebus,andthebusthenreturnstotheEPZ,travelstoitsrouteandproceedstopickupmor etransit PalisadesPowerPlant8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltimetothereceptioncenter.Thesecond waveETEforthebusrouteservicingPAA1iscomputedasfollowsforgoodweather:* Busarrivesatreceptioncenterat2:52ingoodweather(2:25toexitEPZ+27minutetraveltimetoreceptioncenter).* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10minuterest:15minutes.* BusreturnstoEPZandcompletessecondwaveoftransitservice:27minutes(equaltotraveltimetoreceptioncenter)+10minutes(9.1miles@54mph)=37minutes* Buscompletespick upsalongroute:30minutes.* BusexitsEP Zattime2:25+0:27+0:15+0:37+0:30=4:15(roundedtonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheETEforthecompletionofthesecondwaveforalltransit dependentbusroutesareprovidedinTable8 11throughTable8 13.Th eaverageETEforasinglewaveevacuationiscomparabletotheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90 thpercentile;thetwo waveevacuationoftransit dependentpeopleexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90 thpercentile.Therelocationoftransit dependentevacueesfromthereceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.IfthereareinsufficientnumberoftransportationresourcesforschoolsintheEPZ,belowprovidesanexampleofasecond waveETEcalculation.Rather,th efollowingrepresentativeETEisprovidedtoestimatetheadditionaltimeneededforasecondwaveevacuation.Timesanddistancesarebasedonschool wideaverages:* Schoolbusesarriveattheschooltemporaryhostfacilitiesat2:05(1:55toexittheEPZ+10minutetraveltimetotherelocationcenter).* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10 mi nuterest:15minutes.* BusreturnstoEPZandcompletessecondroute:10minutes(equaltotraveltimetoschooltemporaryhostfacilitiesforgoodweather)+8minutes(5miles@40mph)=18minutes.* LoadingTime:15minutes.* TraveltimetoEPZboundary:8minutes* BusexitsEPZattime2:17+0:15+0:18+0:15+0:08=3:05(roundedtonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.

EvacuationofMedicalFacilitiesThebusoperationsforthisgrouparesimilartothoseforschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof30patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythe PalisadesPowerPlant8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1patients.* Thepassengerloadingtimewillbelongeratapproximatelyoneminuteperambulatorypatient,5minutesperwheelchairboundpatient,and15minutesperbedriddenpatient,toaccountforthetimetomovepatientsfrominsidethefacilitytothevehicles.Table8 4indicatesthat7busruns,10wheelch airbusrunsand6ambulancerunsareneededtoserviceallofthespecialfacilitiesintheEPZ.Transportationresourcesavailablewerenotprovidedbythemedicalfacilitiesorthecountiesforthisstudy.RefertoTable8 5forasummaryoftheavailabletransportationresources.ItisassumedthatlocalfirehousesorfirehousesjustoutsidetheEPZwo uldhaveambulancesavailabletoassistintheevacuation,andthatthoseambulancescanarriveatthefacilitiestobeevacuatedwithinthemobilizationtimeusedinthisstudy.Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverages90minutesforgoodweather(100minutesforrainand110minutesforsnow).Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.Table8 14throughTable8 16summarizetheETEformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZforgoodweather,rain,andsnow.BasedonthelocationsofthemedicalfacilitiesinFigureE 2,itisestimatedthatbuseswillhavetotravel4miles,onaverage,toleavetheEPZ.Averagespeedsoutputbythemodel,cappedat55mph(50mphforrainand45mphforsnow),areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.TheETEisthesu mofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelch airbuses/vans,andambulancesatcapacityisassumed.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,thecalculationofETEfortheForestBeachAdultFosterHomewith16ambulatoryresidentsduringgoodweatheris:ETE:90+16x1+22=128min.or2:10rounde dtothenearest5minutes.Itisassumedthatspecialfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughthereceptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.8.5 SpecialNeedsPopulationThecountyemergencymanagementagencieshaveacombinedregistrationfortransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Basedondataprovidedbythecounties,thereare2homeboundspecialneedspeoplewithintheAlleganCountyportionoftheEPZ,14peoplewithintheBerrienCountyportionoftheEPZand5peoplewithintheVanBurenCountyportionoftheEPZwhorequiretransportationassistancetoevacuate.Detailsonthenumberofambulatory,wheelchair boundandbedriddenpeoplewerenotavailableforBerrienCounty.ItisassumedthatallspecialneedspeopleinBerrienCountyareambulatory.VanBurenCountyincludesoneambulatorypersonan donepersonrequiringandambulance.AlleganCountyliststwoofthefiveaswheelchairboundandthreeofthefiveasambulatory.Thus,thereare21 PalisadesPowerPlant8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1transitdependentspecialneedspeoplewithintheEPZ,18ofwhichareambulatory,2arewheelchairboundand1isbedridden.ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsTable8 17summarizestheETEforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thetableiscategorizedbytypeofvehiclerequiredandthenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesintoconsiderationthedeploymentofmultiplevehiclestoreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.Itisconservativelyassumedthatambulatoryandwheelchairboundspecialneedshouseholdsarespaced3milesapartandbedriddenhouseholdsarespaced5milesapart.Vanandbusspeedsapproximate20mphbetweenhouseholdsandambulancespeedsapproximate30mphingoodweather(10%slowerinrain,20%slowerinsnow).Mobilizationtimesof90minuteswereused(100minutesforrain,and110minutesforsnow).ThelastHHisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthenetwork wideaveragespeed,cappedat55mph(50mphforrainand45mphforsnow),afterthelastpickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.ETEiscomputedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtimeatfirsthousehol d,traveltosubsequenthouseholds,loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,assumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperHHimpliesthat18ambulatoryhouseholdsneedtobeserviced.Whileonly1busisneededfromacapacit yperspective,if3busesaredeployedtoservicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequire6stops.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:1. Assume3busesaredeployed,eachwithabout6stops,toserviceatotalof18HH.2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:90minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirs tpickup:5minutesc. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:5@9minutes(3milesat20mph)=45minutesd. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:5@5m inutes=25minutese. TraveltoEPZboundary:5minutes(5milesat55mph).ETE:90+5+45+25+5=2:50 PalisadesPowerPlant8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculationsifasecondwaveisneeded(forgoodweather):a. Traveltimetoreceptioncenter:23minutes(16.9miles@45mph;16.9milesistheaveragedistancetothereceptioncenterfromTable8 11throughTable8 13.Itisassumedthatroutestoservicethespecialn eedspopulationaresimilartothosetoservicethetransit dependentpopulation.)b. Unloadhomeboundspecialneedspersonsatreceptioncenter:30minutesc. Drivertakesa10minuterest:10minutesd. TravelbacktoEPZ:23minutes(16.9miles@45mph)e. Loadingtimeatallhouseholds:6HH@5minutes=30minutesf. TraveltimebetweenhouseholdsandtoEPZboundaryat4:45(sumoffirstwaveanditemslistedabove):59minutes(6stopsat9mi nutesbetweenstopsandtravel5miles@55mph)ETE:2:50+23+30+10+23+30+59=5:45 PalisadesPowerPlant8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter EBusExitsRegion FBusArrivesatReceptionCenter/TemporaryHostFacility GBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationService Activity A B DriverMobilization B C TraveltoFacilityortoPick upRoute C D PassengersBoardtheBus D E BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary E F BusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenter/THFOutsidetheEPZ F G PassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreakFigure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time(SubsequentWave)

PalisadesPowerPlant8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes PalisadesPowerPlant8 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimatedNo.ofHouseholdsSurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHH withCommutersSurveyPercentHH withNonReturning CommutersTotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharing PercentagePeopleRequiringPublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiringPublicTransit01201231,0051.251.742.5612,9192%33%4552%54%1,46650%7332.4%

PalisadesPowerPlant8 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesPAASchoolNameEnrollmentBusesRequired2BrightBeginningsChristian 13752HeadStartSouthHaven3712MapleGroveElementarySchool38153CovertElementarySchool30043CovertHighSchool13023CovertMiddleSchool15034BaselineMiddleSchool52084HeadStartMigrantatLincolnElementary514HeadStartPeaceLutheran1614L.C.MohrHighSchool725124LakeMichiganCollege 380004LincolnElementarySchool20034NorthShoreElementarySchool30044St.BasilCatholicSchool6514St.PaulLutheranSchool7325BangorHighSchool36065BangorMiddleSchool38265ColomaElementarySchool37555ColomaHighSchool 243005ColomaJuniorHighSchool 230005ColomaMiddleSchool37565HeadStartBangor5415HeadStartBangorMigrant3215HeadStartColoma2015HeadStartHartford4515PumpkinPatchLearningCenter4715SalemLutheranPreschool615SouthWalnutElementarySchool1,200145Tri CountyHeadStart5415WashingtonElementarySchool28045WatervlietNorthElementarySchool29345WoodSchool271TOTAL: 7,2191051. BrightBeginningsChristianwillevacuatein5minivans ownedbythefacility.2. ColomaJuniorandSeniorHighSchoolsareinthesameparkinglot.Nobusesareneeded.TheSeniorHighisalsoatemporaryhostfacility.3. 240studentsatLakeMichiganCollegecommutefromoutsidetheEPZ.Thesestudentsweretreatedastransientsinthisstudybecauseoftheircomparablebehaviorandhavebeensubtractedfromthetotal.SeeSection3.3foradditionalinformation.

PalisadesPowerPlant8 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.TemporaryHostFacilitiesforEvacuatedSchoolchildrenSchoolTemporaryHostFacilityAlleganCountySchoolsNorthShoreElementarySchoolFennvilleHighSchoolBerrienCountySchoolsColomaElementarySchoolColomaHighSchoolColomaHighSchoolColomaJuniorHighSchoolColomaMiddleSchoolHeadStart-ColomaSalemLutheranPreschoolWashingtonElementarySchoolPumpkinPatchLearningCenterColomaPublicLibraryTri CountyHeadStartBangorElementarySchoolWatervlietNorthElementarySchoolWatervlietElementarySchoolVanBurenCountySchoolsBangorHighSchoolHartfordHighSchoolBangorMiddleSchoolSouthWalnutElementarySchoolWoodSchoolHeadStartBangorHeadStartBangorMigrantHeadStartHartfordCovertElementarySchoolBloomingdaleHighSchoolCovertHighSchoolCovertMiddleSchoolBaselineMiddleSchoolFennvilleHighSchoolBrightBeginningsChristianHeadStartMigrantatLincolnElementaryHeadStartPeaceLutheranHeadStartSouthHavenL.C.MohrHighSchoolLincolnElementarySchoolMapleGroveElementarySchoolSt.BasilCatholicSchoolSt.PaulLutheranSchool**240studentsatLakeMichiganCollegecommutefromoutsidetheEPZ.Thesestudentsweretreatedastransientsinthisstudybecauseoftheircomparablebehaviorandhavebeenexcludedfromthistable.SeeSection3.3foradditionalinformation.

PalisadesPowerPlant8 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.SpecialFacilityTransitDemandPAAFacilityNameCapacityCurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedriddenBusRunsWheelchairBusRunsAmbulance BERRIENCOUNTY5ForestBeachAdultFosterHome201616001005JuniperHome66240110BerrienCountySubtotal: 26221840210VANBURENCOUNTY4CountrySideNursing10988424242324RiverRidgeRetirementVillage4442261331124SouthHavenCommunityHospital82116231124SouthHavenNursing&RehabilitationCommunity886110510140VanBurenCountySubtotal: 3232028410810596TOTAL: 349224102112107106 PalisadesPowerPlant8 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceBusesVansWheelchair BusesWheelchair VansAmbulances ResourcesAvailableColomaSchoolDistrict202WatervlietNorthElementary81BangorSchools14CovertSchools12BrightBeginningsChristian05SouthHavenSchools2114PumpkinPatchLearningCenterTOTAL: 7551700ResourcesNeededSchools(Table8 2): 1055MedicalFacilities(Table8 4): 7106TransitDependentPopulation(Table8 10): 25HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5): 311TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 14051017 PalisadesPowerPlant8 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1TransitDependentRouteforPAA196,322,297,298,321,299,300,301,302,303,304,305,306,307,308,309,310,311,312,3132TransitDependentRouteforPAA2109,110,111,112,368,113,114,115,116,117,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,513TransitDependentRouteforPAA3211,476,212,477,478,213,214,215,216,217,514,218,219,513,512,2204TransitDependentRouteforPAA4115,116,117,118,119,120,121,435,380,381,382,436,123,124,125,126,127,128,1295TransitDependentRouteforPAA51of2426,427,428,402,524,403,263,386,387,388,2646TransitDependentRouteforPAA52of2234,233,383,232,231,230,15,14,13,12,11,107Tri CountyHeadStart245,246,258,517,247,248,249,359,3607HeadStartColoma245,246,258,517,247,248,249,359,3608WashingtonElementary384,245,246,258,517,247,248,249,359,3609SalemLutheranPreschool537,517,247,248,249,359,36010WatervlietNorthElementary219,513,512,22011BangorHighSchool264,483,266,390,26711BangorMiddleSchool264,483,266,390,26711SouthWalnutElementarySchool264,483,266,390,26711HeadStartBangor264,483,266,390,26711HeadStartBangorMigrant264,483,266,390,26712WoodSchool481,404,405,406,407,40813HeadStartHartford270,353,27114CovertElementarySchool211,210,426,427,428,402,524,403,263,386,387,388,26414CovertHighSchool211,210,426,427,428,402,524,403,263,386,387,388,26414CovertMiddleSchool211,210,426,427,428,402,524,403,263,386,387,388,26415NorthShoreElementary469,122,380,381,163,46,47,48,49,50,5116BaselineMiddleSchool121,435,380,381,163,46,47,48,49,50,51,5224JuniperHome515,243,219,513,512,22025ForestBeachAdultFosterHome535,218,219,513,512,22026SouthHavenCommunityHospital153,154,115,116,117,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,5226SouthHavenNursing&RehabilitationCommunity153,154,115,116,117,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52 PalisadesPowerPlant8 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary27CountrySideNursing157,121,435,380,381,163,46,47,48,49,50,51,5228RiverRidgeRetirementVillage121,435,380,381,163,46,47,48,49,50,51,5229HeadStartMigrantatLincolnElementary473,472,471,202,470,201,150,466,467,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,5129L.C.MohrHighSchool473,472,471,202,470,201,150,466,467,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,5129LincolnElementarySchool473,472,471,202,470,201,150,466,467,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,5129MapleGroveElementarySchool473,472,471,202,470,201,150,466,467,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,5129St.PaulLutheranSchool473,472,471,202,470,201,150,466,467,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,5130BrightBeginningsChristian543,167,166,165,154,115,116,117,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,5131HeadStartPeaceLutheran117,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,5132HeadStartSouthHaven166,165,154,115,116,117,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,5133St.BasilCatholicSchool545,474,202,470,201,150,466,467,118,161,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,5134ColomaMiddleSchool359,36035ColomaElementarySchool359,360 PalisadesPowerPlant8 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoTHF(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoTHF(min)ETEtoTHF(hr:min)AlleganCountySchoolsNorthShoreElementary90153.855.051:5014.6202:10BerrienCountySchoolsTri CountyHeadStart90151.923.551:500.001:50HeadStartColoma90151.923.551:500.001:50WashingtonElementary90151.824.451:500.001:50SalemLutheranPreschool90151.022.431:500.001:50WatervlietNorthElementary90151.06.3101:550.412:00VanBurenCountySchoolsBangorHighSchool90154.550.261:555.072:00BangorMiddleSchool90154.550.261:555.072:00BangorMiddleSchool90154.550.261:555.072:00SouthWalnutElementarySchool90154.150.251:505.072:00HeadStartBangor90155.450.271:555.072:00HeadStartBangorMigrant90154.850.261:555.072:00WoodSchool90156.137.7101:550.312:00HeadStartHartford90150.524.721:500.821:50CovertElementarySchool90159.246.6122:0013.2182:15CovertHighSchool90159.246.6122:0013.2182:15CovertMiddleSchool90159.246.6122:0013.2182:15BaselineMiddleSchool90153.855.051:5014.6202:10HeadStartMigrantatLincolnElementary90159.249.8122:0014.6202:20L.C.MohrHighSchool901513.249.8162:0514.6202:25 PalisadesPowerPlant8 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoTHF(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoTHF(min)ETEtoTHF(hr:min)LincolnElementarySchool901514.249.8182:0514.6202:25MapleGroveElementarySchool90158.949.8112:0014.6202:20St.PaulLutheranSchool90157.649.8101:5514.6202:15BrightBeginningsChristian90158.753.7101:5514.6202:15HeadStartPeaceLutheran90157.655.091:5514.6202:15HeadStartSouthHaven90157.855.091:5514.6202:15St.BasilCatholicSchool90157.651.791:5514.6202:15ColomaElementarySchool90150.134.411:500.001:50ColomaMiddleSchool90150.134.411:500.001:50ColomaJuniorHighSchoolTemporaryHostFacilityonPremisesColomaHighSchoolTemporaryHostFacilityonPremisesMaximumforEPZ:2:05Maximum:2:25AverageforEPZ:1:55Average:2:05 PalisadesPowerPlant8 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-RainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoTHF(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoTHF(min)ETEtoTHF(hr:min)AllegenCountySchoolsNorthShoreElementary100203.850.052:0514.6222:30BerrienCountySchoolsTri CountyHeadStart100201.923.052:050.002:05HeadStartColoma100201.923.052:050.002:05WashingtonElementary100201.823.852:050.002:05SalemLutheranPreschool100201.022.332:050.002:05WatervlietNorthElementary100201.05.5112:150.412:15VanBurenCountySchoolsBangorHighSchool100204.549.062:105.082:15BangorMiddleSchool100204.549.062:105.082:15BangorMiddleSchool100204.549.062:105.082:15SouthWalnutElementarySchool100204.149.062:105.082:15HeadStartBangor100205.449.072:105.082:15HeadStartBangorMigrant100204.849.062:105.082:15WoodSchool100206.134.6112:150.312:15HeadStartHartford100200.522.722:050.822:05CovertElementarySchool100209.242.1142:1513.2202:35CovertHighSchool100209.242.1142:1513.2202:35CovertMiddleSchool100209.242.1142:1513.2202:35BaselineMiddleSchool100203.850.052:0514.6222:30HeadStartMigrantatLincolnElementary100209.245.9132:1514.6222:35 PalisadesPowerPlant8 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoTHF(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoTHF(min)ETEtoTHF(hr:min)L.C.MohrHighSchool1002013.245.9182:2014.6222:40LincolnElementarySchool1002014.245.9192:2014.6222:45MapleGroveElementarySchool100208.945.9122:1514.6222:35St.PaulLutheranSchool100207.645.9102:1014.6222:35BrightBeginningsChristian100208.749.2112:1514.6222:35HeadStartPeaceLutheran100207.650.0102:1014.6222:35HeadStartSouthHaven100207.850.0102:1014.6222:35St.BasilCatholicSchool100207.647.8102:1014.6222:35ColomaElementarySchool100150.131.912:000.002:00ColomaMiddleSchool100150.131.912:000.002:00ColomaJuniorHighSchoolTemporaryHostFacilityonPremisesColomaHighSchoolTemporaryHostFacilityonPremisesMaximumforEPZ:2:20Maximum:2:45AverageforEPZ:2:10Average:2:25

PalisadesPowerPlant8 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnowSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoTHF(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoTHF(min)ETEtoTHF(hr:min)AlleganCountySchoolsNorthShoreElementary110253.845.062:2514.6262:50BerrienCountySchoolsTri CountyHeadStart110251.919.862:250.002:25HeadStartColoma110251.919.862:250.002:25WashingtonElementary110251.820.662:250.002:25SalemLutheranPreschool110251.019.042:200.002:20WatervlietNorthElementary110251.04.5142:300.412:30VanBurenCountySchoolsBangorHighSchool110254.543.672:255.092:35BangorMiddleSchool110254.543.672:255.092:35BangorMiddleSchool110254.543.672:255.092:35SouthWalnutElementarySchool110254.143.662:255.092:30HeadStartBangor110255.443.682:255.092:35HeadStartBangorMigrant110254.843.672:255.092:35WoodSchool110256.130.2132:300.312:30HeadStartHartford110250.519.822:200.822:20CovertElementarySchool110259.237.4152:3013.2232:55CovertHighSchool110259.237.4152:3013.2232:55CovertMiddleSchool110259.237.4152:3013.2232:55BaselineMiddleSchool110253.845.062:2514.6262:50 PalisadesPowerPlant8 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoTHF(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoTHF(min)ETEtoTHF(hr:min)HeadStartMigrantatLincolnElementary110259.240.9142:3014.6262:55L.C.MohrHighSchool1102513.240.9202:3514.6263:05LincolnElementarySchool1102514.240.9212:4014.6263:05MapleGroveElementarySchool110258.940.9142:3014.6262:55St.PaulLutheranSchool110257.640.9122:3014.6262:55BrightBeginningsChristian110258.743.8122:3014.6262:55HeadStartPeaceLutheran110257.645.0112:3014.6262:55HeadStartSouthHaven110257.845.0112:3014.6262:55St.BasilCatholicSchool110257.642.4112:3014.6262:55ColomaElementarySchool110150.128.012:100.002:10ColomaMiddleSchool110150.128.012:100.002:10ColomaJuniorHighSchoolTemporaryHostFacilityonPremisesColomaHighSchoolTemporaryHostFacilityonPremisesMaximumforEPZ:2:40Maximum:3:05AverageforEPZ:2:30Average:2:45 PalisadesPowerPlant8 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutesPAARouteNo.ofBusesRouteDescriptionLength(mi.)114Beginningat32ndAvenuetherouteheadssouthboundonBlueStartMemorialHighwayuntiltheEPZboundaryatColomaRoad.9.1223Beginningattheintersectionof16thAvenueandBlueStartMemorialHighwayandtravelingnorthbound,theroutemakesarightonPhoenixRoadtoaccessInterstate196North.Makealeftontheon ramptoI 196andtravelnorthtotheEPZboundary.9.0334InCovertattheintersectionofCR 378andM 140Highway,headingsouthboundonM 140Highway.Justpast48thAve,BarelefttocontinueonM 140HighwayaroundPawPawLakeintothetownofWatervliet.ContinueonNMainStreet/M 140HwyuntiltheEPZboundary.8.5445HeadingnorthboundonBlueStarMemorialHighwayandbeginningattheintersectionwithCR 43.ContinuesnorthonBlueStarMemorialHighwayuntiltheEPZboundary.5.8555HeadingeastonCR 378inFriendsvilletowardsBangor.ContinueseastbounduntiltheEPZboundary.6.164Beginningattheintersectionof76thRoadandHagarShoreRoadinPawPawLake,therouteheadseastonHagarShoreRoaduntilInterstate196andmakesaleftontothesouthboundon ramp.Theroutecontinuessouthboundon1 96untiltheEPZboundaryatRiverside.7.9Total:25 PalisadesPowerPlant8 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberNo.ofBusesOne WaveTwoWaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoRec.Ctr(miles)TravelTimetoRec.Ctr(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)121059.155.010302:2520.22751037304:1521259.155.010302:4520.22751037304:35211059.055.010302:2514.61951029304:0021259.055.010302:4514.61951029304:20321058.555.09302:2516.52251031304:0521258.555.09302:4516.52251031304:25421055.855.06302:2515.62151027303:5531255.835.410302:4515.62151028304:20521056.135.410302:3016.12151029304:0531256.138.110302:4516.12151029304:20621057.935.413302:3018.22451034304:1521257.938.112302:5018.22451034304:35MaximumETE: 2:50MaximumETE: 4:35AverageETE: 2:40AverageETE: 4:15 PalisadesPowerPlant8 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-RainRouteNumberNo.ofBusesOne WaveTwoWaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoRec.Ctr(miles)TravelTimetoRec.Ctr(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)121159.150.011402:5020.23051041404:5521359.150.011403:1020.23051041405:15211159.050.011402:5014.62251033404:4021359.050.011403:1014.62251033405:00321158.530.117402:5516.52551036404:5021358.538.413403:1016.52551036405:05421155.844.38402:4515.62351031404:3531355.844.88403:0515.62351031404:55521156.138.79402:4516.12451033404:4031356.139.99403:0516.12451033405:00621157.950.09402:4518.22751037404:4521357.950.09403:0518.22751037405:05MaximumETE: 3:10MaximumETE: 5:15AverageETE: 3:00AverageETE: 4:55

PalisadesPowerPlant8 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnowRouteNumberNo.ofBusesOne WaveTwoWaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoRec.Ctr(miles)TravelTimetoRec.Ctr(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)121259.145.012503:1020.23551048505:3521459.145.012503:3020.23551047505:55211259.045.012503:1014.62551037505:1521459.045.012503:3014.62551037505:35321258.519.526503:2516.52851041505:4021458.524.920503:4016.52851041505:50421255.839.09503:0515.62751035505:1531455.839.69503:2515.62751036505:35521256.134.811503:1016.12851037505:2031456.135.310503:3016.12851038505:40621257.945.011513:1019.23351044515:3021457.945.011523:3020.23551045525:55MaximumETE: 3:40MaximumETE: 5:55AverageETE: 3:25AverageETE: 5:35 PalisadesPowerPlant8 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table814.SpecialFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingTime(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)ForestBeachAdultFosterHomeAmbulatory9011616222:10JuniperHomeAmbulatory901221504:05Wheelchairbound905420733:05CountrySideNursingAmbulatory901423052:05Wheelchairbound905427542:50Bedridden901543052:05SouthHavenCommunityHospitalAmbulatory9016641:40Wheelchairbound90521041:45Bedridden901533042:05SouthHavenNursing&RehabilitationCommunityAmbulatory901101041:45Wheelchairbound905517542:50MaximumETE:4:05AverageETE:2:25 PalisadesPowerPlant8 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table815.SpecialFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)ForestBeachAdultFosterHomeAmbulatory10011616242:20JuniperHomeAmbulatory1001221504:15Wheelchairbound1005420552:55CountrySideNursingAmbulatory1001423052:15Wheelchairbound1005427553:00Bedridden1001543052:15SouthHavenCommunityHospitalAmbulatory10016651:55Wheelchairbound100521051:55Bedridden1001533052:15SouthHavenNursing&RehabilitationCommunityAmbulatory1001101051:55Wheelchairbound1005517553:00MaximumETE:4:15AverageETE:2:32

PalisadesPowerPlant8 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table816.SpecialFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnowMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)ForestBeachAdultFosterHomeAmbulatory11011616523:00JuniperHomeAmbulatory1101221604:35Wheelchairbound11054201604:50CountrySideNursingAmbulatory1101423062:30Wheelchairbound1105427563:15Bedridden1101543062:30SouthHavenCommunityHospitalAmbulatory11016652:05Wheelchairbound110521052:05Bedridden1101533052:25SouthHavenNursing&RehabilitationCommunityAmbulatory1101101052:05Wheelchairbound1105517553:10MaximumETE:4:50AverageETE:2:57 PalisadesPowerPlant8 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table817.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimatesVehicleTypePeopleRequiringVehicleVehiclesdeployedStopsWeatherConditionsMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTimeat1 stStop(min)TraveltoSubsequentStops(min)TotalLoadingTimeatSubsequentStops(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)Buses1836Normal905452552:50Rain1005063:10Snow1105573:25WheelchairVans212Normal9059551:55Rain1001062:10Snow1101172:20Ambulances111Normal90150051:50Rain100062:05Snow110072:15MaximumETE: 3:25AverageETE: 2:30 PalisadesPowerPlant9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).* TrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.ThesedevicesshouldcomplywiththeguidanceoftheManualofUniformTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.AllstateandmostcountytransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisav ailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. Facilitat eevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Weemploytheterms"facilitate"and"discourage"ratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forex ample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.

PalisadesPowerPlant9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR 7002.2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.Thisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionstha texperiencepronouncedcongestion.AnycriticalintersectionsthatarenotidentifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandACPs3. TheexistingTCPandACP,andhowtheywereappliedintheETEstudy,ispresentedinAppendixG.4. Consultationwithemer gencymanagementandlawenforcementpersonnel.TrainedpersonnelwhoareexperiencedincontrollingtrafficandareawareofthelikelyevacuationtrafficpatternsshouldreviewthecontroltacticsatthesuggestedadditionalTCPsandACPs.5. PrioritizationofTCPsandACPs.ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandACPswillhaveamorepronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmo vementsthanatotherTCPsandACPs.Forexample,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromth epowerplant.Theseprioritiesshouldbeassignedbystate/countyemergencymanagementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.TheuseofIntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)technologiescanreducemanpowerandequipmentneeds,whilestillfacilitatingtheevacuationprocess.DynamicMessageSigns(DMS)canbeplacedwithintheEPZtoprovideinformationtotravelersregardingtrafficconditions,routeselection,andreceptioncenterinformation.DMScanalsobeplacedoutsideoftheEPZtowarnmotoriststoavoidusingroutesthatmayconflictwiththeflowofevacueesawayfromthepowerplant.HighwayAdvisoryRadio(HAR)canbeusedtobroadcastinformationtoevacueesenroutethroughtheirvehiclester eosystems.AutomatedTravelerInformationSystems(ATIS)canalsobeusedtoprovideevacueeswithinformation.Internetwebsitescanprovidetrafficandevacuationrouteinformationbeforetheevacueebeginshistrip,whileonboardnavigationsystems(GPSunits),cellphones,andpagerscanbeusedtoprovideinformationenroute.TheseareonlyseveralexamplesofhowIT Stechnologiescanbenefittheevacuationprocess.ConsiderationshouldbegiventhatITStechnologiesbeusedtofacilitatetheevacuationprocess,andanyadditionalsignageplacedshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.Chapters2Nand5G,andPart6ofthe2009MUTCDareparticularlyrelevantandshouldbereviewedduringemergencyresponsetraining.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"external extern al"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter2hourshaveelapsedfromtheATE.

PalisadesPowerPlant9 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningACPsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussACPandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.

PalisadesPowerPlant10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromaPAAbeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsuchawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1presentsth egeneralpopulationreceptioncentersandtemporaryhostfacilityforevacuees.ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 2.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriatetemporaryhostfacilityandsubsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transit dependentev acueesaretransportedtothenearestreceptioncenterforeachcounty.Thisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.

PalisadesPowerPlant10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandSchoolReceptionCenters PalisadesPowerPlant10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.-EvacuationRouteMap PalisadesPowerPlant11 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.111 SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONSThereisaneedforsurveillanceoftrafficoperationsduringtheevacuation.Thereisalsoaneedtoclearanyblockageofroadwaysarisingfromaccidentsorvehicledisablement.Surveillancecantakeseveralforms.1. Trafficcontrolpersonnel,locatedatTrafficControlandAccessControlpoints,providefixed pointsurveillance.2. Groundpatrolsmaybeundertakenalongwell definedpathstoensurecoverageofthosehighwaysthatserveasmajorevacuationroutes.3. Aerialsurveillanceofevacuationoperationsmayalsobeconductedusinghelicopterorfixed wingaircraft,ifavailable.4. Cellularphonecalls(ifcellularcoverageexists)frommotoristsmayalsoprovidedirectfieldreportsofroadblockages.TheseconcurrentsurveillanceproceduresaredesignedtoprovidecoverageoftheentireEPZaswellastheareaarounditsperiphery.Itistheresponsibilityofthecountiestosupportanemergencyresponsesystemthatcanreceivemessagesfromthefieldandbeinapositiontorespondtoanyreportedproblemsinatimelymanner.Thiscoverageshouldquic klyidentify,andexpeditetheresponsetoanyblockagecausedbyadisabledvehicle.TowVehiclesInalow speedtrafficenvironment,anyvehicledisablementislikelytoariseduetoalow speedcollision,mechanicalfailureortheexhaustionofitsfuelsupply.Inanycase,thedisabledvehiclecanbepushedontotheshoulder,therebyrestoringtrafficflow.Pastexperienceinotheremergenciesindicatesthatevacueeswhoareleavinganareaoftenperformactivitiessuchaspushingadisabledvehicletothesideoftheroadwithoutprom pting.Whiletheneedfortowvehiclesisexpectedtobelowunderthecircumstancesdescribedabove,itisstillprudenttobepreparedforsuchaneed.Considerationshouldbegiventhattowtruckswithasupplyofgasolinebedeployedatstrategiclo cationswithin,orjustoutside,theEPZ.Theselocationsshouldbeselectedsothat: Theypermitaccesstokey,heavilyloaded,evacuationroutes. Respondingtowtruckswouldmostlikelytravelcounter flowrelativetoevacuatingtraffic.Considerationshouldalsobegiventhatthestateandlocalemergencymanagementagenciesencouragegasstationstoremainopenduringtheevacuation.

PalisadesPowerPlant12 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.112 CONFIRMATIONTIMEItisnecessarytoconfirmthattheevacuationprocessiseffectiveinthesensethatthepubliciscomplyingwiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheVanBurenCountyEmergencyOperationsPlanAppendix1(NuclearAccidentProcedures)toAnnexG,LawEnforcement,SectionIII,A.Warning,Paragraph3specifiestha tconfirmationwillbeaccomplishedby,"-usingdatacompiledatthereceptioncentersandinformationsuppliedbytheVanBuren/CassDistrictHealthDepartmentandDepartmentofHealthServices."Evacuationresearchhasshownthatmostevacueesgotothehomeofafriendorrelativeoutsidetheevacuatedareaortoalodgingfacility,rath erthangoingtoreceptioncenters.Assuch,thefollowingcomplementaryapproachissuggestedtothecountyapproachofusingreceptioncenterdatatoconfirmevacuation.Theprocedurewesuggestemploysastratifiedrandomsampleandatelephonesurvey.ThesizeofthesampleisdependentontheexpectednumberofhouseholdsthatdonotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Webelieveitisreasonabletoassume,forthepurposeofestimatingsamplesizethatatleast80percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZwillcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Onthisbasis,ananalysiscouldbeundertaken(seeTable12 1)toyieldanestimatedsamplesizeofapproximately300Theconfirmationprocessshouldstartatabout2hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,whichiswhenapproximately90percentofevacueeshavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivities(seeTable5 9).Atthistime,virtuallyallevacueesw illhavedepartedontheirrespectivetripsandthelocaltelephonesystemwillbelargelyfreeoftraffic.AsindicatedinTable12 1,approximately71/2personhoursareneededtocompletethetelephonesurvey.Iffivepeopleareassignedtothistask,eachdialingadifferentsetoftelephoneexchanges(e.g.,eachpersoncanbeassignedadifferentPAA),thentheconfirmationprocesswillextendoveratimeframeofabout90minutes.Thus,theconfirmationshouldbecompletedbeforetheevacuatedareaiscleared.Ofcourse,fewerpeoplewouldbeneededforthissurveyiftheEvacuationRegionwereonlyaportionofth eEPZ.Useofmodernautomatedcomputercontrolleddialingequipmentorothertechnologies(e.g.,reverse911orequivalent)cansignificantlyreducethemanpowerrequirementsandthetimerequiredtoundertakethistypeofconfirmationsurvey.Ifthismethodisindeedusedbytheoffsiteagencies,consid erationshouldbegiventomaintainalistoftelephonenumberswithintheEPZintheEmergencyOperationsCenter(EOC)atalltimes.Suchalistcouldbepurchasedfromvendorsandshouldbeperiodicallyupdated.Asindicatedabove,theconfirmationprocessshouldnotbeginuntil2hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,toensurethathouseholdshavehadenoughtimetomobilize.This2 hourtimeframewillenabletelephoneoperatorstoarriveatth eirworkplace,obtainacalllistandpreparetomakethenecessaryphonecalls.Shouldthenumberoftelephoneresponses(i.e.,peoplestillathome)exceed20percent,thenthetelepho nesurveyshouldberepeatedafteranhour'sintervaluntiltheconfirmationprocess PalisadesPowerPlant12 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1iscompleted.Othertechniquesshouldalsobeconsidered.Aftertrafficvolumesdecline,thepersonnelmanningTCPscanberedeployedtotravelthroughresidentialareastoobserveandtoconfirmevacuationactivities.Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuationProblemDefinitionEstimatenumberofphonecalls,n,neededtoascertaintheproportion,Fofhouseholdsthathavenotevacuated.

Reference:

Burstein,H.,AttributeSampling,McGrawHill,1971Given: No.ofhouseholdsplusotherfacilities,N,withintheEPZ(est.)=13,000 Est.proportion,F,ofhouseholdsthatwillnotevacuate=0.20 Allowableerrormargin,e:0.05 Confidencelevel,:0.95(impliesA=1.96)ApplyingTable10ofcitedreference,Finitepopulationcorrection:

Thus,some300telephonecallswillconfirmthatapproximately20percentofthepopulationhasnotevacuated.Ifonly10percentofthepopulationdoesnotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate,thentherequiredsamplesize,n F=212.

Est.PersonHourstocomplete300telephonecallsAssume: Timetodialusingtouchtone(randomselectionoflistednumbers):30seconds Timefor6rings(noanswer):36seconds Timefor4ringsplusshortconversation:60sec.

PalisadesPowerPlant12 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Intervalbetweencalls:20sec.PersonHours:

APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms PalisadesPowerPlantA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red.

PalisadesPowerPlantA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.

APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel PalisadesPowerPlantB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost".OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestin ationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.

PalisadesPowerPlantB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel PalisadesPowerPlantB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a=

ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.

PalisadesPowerPlantB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepres entsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

PalisadesPowerPlantB 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?

Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel PalisadesPowerPlantC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics PalisadesPowerPlantC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network PalisadesPowerPlantC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto6)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks PalisadesPowerPlantC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 80078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx PalisadesPowerPlantC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.

PalisadesPowerPlantC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams PalisadesPowerPlantC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp PalisadesPowerPlantC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelength ofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.

PalisadesPowerPlantC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength.

PalisadesPowerPlantC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.

PalisadesPowerPlantC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.

PalisadesPowerPlantC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,.

Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:

PalisadesPowerPlantC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm PalisadesPowerPlantC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.

PalisadesPowerPlantC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes PalisadesPowerPlantC 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.

APPENDIXDDETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE PalisadesPowerPlantD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZandPAAboundaries.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.EmployeedatawereestimatedusingdataprovidedbyAllegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountyresponsesfordataneedsandfromphonecallstomajoremployers.TransientdatawasobtainedfromphonecallstotransientattractionsaswellasCountyresponsestodataneeds.Informationconcerningschools,medicalandothertypesofspecialfacilitieswithintheEPZwasobtainedfromcountyandmunicipalsources,augmentedbytelephonecontactswiththeidentifiedfacilities.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateandlocalemergencymanagers,on siteandoff siteutilityemergencymanagers,localandstatelawenforcementagencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specificrequestsforinformationwerepresentedtolocalemergencymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationof PalisadesPowerPlantD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredtoperformpre evacuationmobilizationactivities.Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto5PAAs.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofPAAs)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhich PalisadesPowerPlantD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1operatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperiencetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenec ksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputstreammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thentheprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroutespecificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentandspecialf acilitypopulationgroups.Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario PalisadesPowerPlantD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset.Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.

PalisadesPowerPlantD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXESpecialFacilityData PalisadesPowerPlantE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. SPECIALFACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofFebruary2012,forspecialfacilitiesthatarelocatedwithinthePalisadesEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,majoremployers,hospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities,aswellasrecreationalareasincludinglodgingfacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforrecreat ionalareasandlodgingfacilities.Employmentdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Eachtableisgroupedbycounty.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,majoremployer,recreationalarea,lodgingfacility,andmedicalfacilityarealsoprovided.

PalisadesPowerPlantE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.SchoolsandPreSchoolswithintheEPZPAADistance(miles)Direc tionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffALLEGANCOUNTY47.7NENorthShoreElementarySchool7320NorthShoreDr.SouthHaven(269)637056030075AlleganSubtotals:30075BERRIENCOUNTY59.7SColomaElementarySchool262SWestStColoma(269)46824203752359.8SColomaHighSchool302ESt.JosephSt.Coloma(269)46824004304059.8SColomaJuniorHighSchool300WSt.JosephSt.Coloma(269)46824053003359.7SColomaMiddleSchool274SWestSt.Coloma(269)46824153752459.0SHeadStartColoma7048CurtisDriveColoma(269)468333120259.1SSalemLutheranPreschool275MarvinSt.Coloma(269)92572926259.0STri CountyHeadStart7048CurtisDr.Coloma(269)657740554758.4SWashingtonElementarySchool6463EBechtRd.Coloma(269)46824302802559.1SSEWatervlietNorthElementarySchool287BaldwinAveWatervliet(269)463675529326BerrienSubtotals:2,133182VANBURENCOUNTY24.6NNEBrightBeginningsChristian163576thSt.SouthHaven(269)637743037N/A25NNEHeadStartSouthHaven540AylworthAveSouthHaven(269)639893637N/A25NEMapleGroveElementarySchool7239912thAveSouthHaven(269)6370549381N/A33.5SECovertElementarySchool35323M140HwyCovert(269)76437203003833.5SECovertHighSchool35323M140HwyCovert(269)76437401303933.5SECovertMiddleSchool35323M140HwyCovert(269)76437301501347.2NNEBaselineMiddleSchool7357BaselineRd.SouthHaven(269)63705305206045.2NNEHeadStartMigrantatLincolnElementary500ElkenburghSt.SouthHaven(269)63705405445.7NNEHeadStartPeaceLutheran6321BlueStarMemorialHighwaySouthHaven(269)639757216245.3NNEL.C.MohrHighSchool600ElkenburgSt.SouthHaven(269)637059372570 PalisadesPowerPlantE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PAADistance(miles)Direc tionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaff46.9NNELakeMichiganCollege 1125VeteransBlvdSouthHaven(269)63775008006545.2NNELincolnElementarySchool500ElkenburgSt.SouthHaven(269)63705402003045.6NNESt.BasilCatholicSchool94SuperiorSt.SouthHaven(269)637352965N/A45.3NNESt.PaulLutheranSchool718ArborCt.SouthHaven(269)637445973N/A59.8EBangorHighSchool801WestArlingtonSt.Bangor(269)4276844360N/A510.1EBangorMiddleSchool803WestArlingtonSt.Bangor(269)4276844382N/A510EHeadStartBangor830BlackRiverRoadBangor(269)4277560547510.5EHeadStartBangorMigrant12NorthWalnutSt.Bangor(269)423613732N/A510.4SEHeadStartHartford57665651/2StreetHartford(269)621430945759.6SPumpkinPatchLearningCenter165ESaintJosephSt.Coloma(269)4684290479510.5ESouthWalnutElementarySchool309SouthWalnutSt.Bangor(269)42768631,20017057ESEWoodSchool3559466thSt.Bangor(269)427856227N/AVanBurenSubtotals:5,586514TOTAL:7,2195891.240studentsatLakeMichiganCollegecommutefromoutsidetheEPZ.Thesestudentsweretreatedastransientsinthisstudybecauseoftheircomparablebehaviorandweresubtractedfromthetotal.SeeSection3.3foradditionalinformation.N/A=Informationnotavailable PalisadesPowerPlantE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZPAADistanc e(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCap acityCurren tCensusAmbul atoryPatient sWheel chairPatient sBed ridden Patient sBERRIENCOUNTY58.7SSEForestBeachAdultFosterHome8021ForestBeachRdWatervliet(269)46351912016160059.1SSEJuniperHome612VanAtterCtWatervliet(269)463355266240BerrienSubtotals:26221840VANBURENCOUNTY47.0NNECountrySideNursingHome120BaselineRdSouthHaven(269)6378411109884242447.1NNERiverRidgeRetirementVillage706KentuckyAveSouthHaven(269)639731044422613345.3NNESouthHavenCommunityHospital955SouthBaileyAveSouthHaven(269)6375271821162345.5NNESouthHavenNursing&RehabilitationCommunity850PhillipsStSouthHaven(269)6375147886110510VanBurenSubtotals:3232028410810TOTAL:34922410211210 PalisadesPowerPlantE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZPAADistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees(NonEPZ)BERRIENCOUNTY59.7SSWAPLLogistics4412ColomaRdColoma(269)84902004060.0%24BerrienSubtotals:4024VANBURENCOUNTY10.1EPalisadesPowerPlant27780BlueStarMemorialHwyCovert(269)764233355050.0%22524.6NNEAlbemarleChemical1421KalamazooStSouthHaven(269)639010012060.0%7247.0NNECountrySideNursingHome120BaselineRdSouthHaven(269)63784119560.0%5746.9NNELakeMichiganCollege125VeteransBlvdSouthHaven(269)63775006530.0%2047.1NNEMenard's12573rdStSouthHaven(269)637592412050.0%3045.5NESouthHavenNursing&RehabilitationCommunity850PhillipsStSouthHaven(269)63751477160.0%4346.6NNEWal Mart20173rdStSouthHaven(269)63922606060.0%3659.8ESEGetmanCorp.5975034thAveBangor(269)427561113460.0%80510.1SSEFourWindsCasino68600RedArrowHwyHartford(866)494637130070.0%210VanBurenSubtotals:1,515773TOTAL:1,555797 PalisadesPowerPlantE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZPAADistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesALLEGAN COUNTY 49.3NNESouthHavenCountryClub397BlueStarHwySouthHaven(269)63738696347.6NNEJensen'sCampground&Motel7366NorthShoreDr.SouthHaven(269)63735448030410.3NNEHawksheadLinks523HawksnestDr.SouthHaven(269)63921211005048.2NNESingingSandsRVPark26274thStSouthHaven(269)637391936024047.7NNECousins'Campground7317NorthShoreDr.SouthHaven(269)6371499600140SeasonalPopulation:628314AlleganSubtotals:1,774777BERRIENCOUNTY 59.7SSWColoma St.JosephKOA3527ColomaRd.Riverside(269)849333350012559.1SPawPawGolfClub4548ForestBeachRd.Watervliet(269)463383120025SeasonalPopulation:510251BerrienSubtotals:1,210401VANBURENCOUNTY 11.6SSWCovertTownshipPark8055932ndAveCovert(269)764142134214610.7NEVanBurenStatePark23960RugglesRd.SouthHavenN/A4508434.3SECovertSouthHavenKOA39397Michigan140Covert(269)764081839925434.5SDuneLakeCampground80739CountyRoad376Coloma(269)764894132016047.0NEBeechesGolfClub0960168thSt.SouthHaven(269)63726008422410.5ENEGingerManRaceway61414PhoenixRd.SouthHaven(269)253444530015046.7NNEKal HavenTrailNorthBaileyAveSouthHavenN/A381346.9NNELakeMichiganCollege 1125VeteransBlvdSouthHaven(269)637750024022245.9NNENorthBeachLakeshoreDriveSouthHaven(269)637072687526945.6NNESouthBeachWaterStreetSouthHaven(269)6370726875269510.1SSEFourWindsCasino68600RedArrowHwyHartford(866)49463715,0002,500SeasonalPopulation:1,951971VanBurenSubtotals:10,8745,060TOTAL:13,8586,238 1.240studentsatLakeMichiganCollegecommutefromoutsidetheEPZ.Thesestudentsweretreatedastransientsinthisstudybecauseoftheircomparablebehaviorandhavebeenincludedinthetotalfortransients.SeeSection3.3foradditionalinformation.N/A=Informationnotavailable PalisadesPowerPlantE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 5.MarinaswithintheEPZPAADistance(miles)Direc tionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesBERRIENCOUNTY58.3SPawPawLakeYachtClub5097ShoreviewDr.Coloma(269)4686300277BerrienSubtotal:277VANBURENCOUNTY46.6NNE1stChoiceMarineInc.815WellsSt.SouthHaven(269)639072710346.2NNEAllSeasonsMarineInc.234BlackRiverSt.SouthHaven(269)6373655371846.4NNEBlackRiverParkMarinaE.WellsSt.SouthHaven(269)637352347728646.6NNEBlackRiverYachtClubOakStSouthHaven(269)214715527513846.8NNEBoatYardBasinHarborViewDr.SouthHaven(269)214715522411246.2NNEJensen'sDocks282DyckmanAveSouthHaven(269)6374997723646.7NNEJonesRiverServices12NBaileyAveSouthHaven(269)6372419904545.9NNENorthsideMarinaBlackRiverStreetSouthHaven(269)637070031015546.8NNEOakHarborMarina525KentuckyAveSouthHaven(269)767748235217646.6NNERiverNoirYachtClub300OakSt.SouthHavenN/A902345.8NNESouthsideMarina539PhoenixRd.SouthHaven(269)637317173345846.0NNESouthHavenYachtClub401WilliamsSt.SouthHaven(269)6372305287VanBurenSubtotal:2,6981,457TOTAL:2,7251,464N/A=Informationnotavailable PalisadesPowerPlantE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 6.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZPAADistance(miles)Direc tionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesALLEGANCOUNTY49.7NNEMartha'sVineyard473BlueStarHwySouthHaven(269)63793735726AlleganSubtotals:5726BERRIENCOUNTY57.6SDuffield'sCottages7039LittlePawPawLakeRdColoma(269)4685253361758.0SMotto'sResort5343PawPawLakeRdColoma(269)4686688783658.5SPawPawLakeMotel4881Wil O PawDrColoma(269)46860801044859.6SSWPottawattamieResort4766ArborAveColoma(269)84914921396457.6SSWSandCastlesofLakeMichigan6125OntarioStColoma(269)849024018958.2SSWSweetCherryResort3313ChestnutAveColoma(269)84912333612BerrienSubtotals:411186VANBURENCOUNTY23.9NNELakeBluffInn&Suites7664811thAveSouthHaven(269)63785312085224.7NNEGreatLakesInnSuites9814Michigan140SouthHaven(269)6378700835545.8NNEAsylumInn424HuronStSouthHaven(269)6372955472246.0NNEHotelNichols201CenterStSouthHaven(269)6378725341746.1NNEOldHarborInn515WilliamsStSouthHaven(269)637848043219945.2NNESherwoodForestBed&Breakfast983CenterStSouthHaven(269)8571246442046.3NNEA&R'sNorthBeachInnandCottages282NorthShoreDriveSouthHavenN/A403346.0NNEACountryPlaceBed&Breakfast79NShoreDrSouthHaven(269)6375523552546.0NNECarriageHouseontheHarbor118WoodmanStSouthHaven(269)6392161232249.8NEElmhurstFarmInn63464thStSouthHavenN/A8447.2NNEGreatLakesInn&Suites186BlueStarHwySouthHaven(269)637870027012546.4NNEHamptonInn4299CeciliaDrSouthHaven(269)639855018012046.2NNEHolidayInnExpressHotel&SuitesSouthHaven1741PhoenixRdSouthHaven(269)63788001866246.2NNEInnattheParkBed&Breakfast233DyckmanAveSouthHaven(269)6391776161646.0NNELastResortBed&Breakfast86NorthShoreDrSouthHaven(269)6378943212145.6NEMonroeManorInnBed&Breakfast728618thAveSouthHaven(269)6376547261246.9NNERainbowsEndBed&Breakfast1152BlueStarHwySouthHaven(616)2273474211046.2NNESandCastleInn203DyckmanAveSouthHaven(269)63911101818 PalisadesPowerPlantE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1PAADistance(miles)Direc tionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehicles46.9NNESeymourHouse1248BlueStarHwySouthHaven(269)2273918221145.9NNESunsetInnBed&Breakfast72N.ShoreDrSouthHaven(269)7202468994646.5NNEVictoriaResortBed&Breakfast241OakStSouthHaven(269)6376414641646.1NNEYeltonManorBed&Breakfast140NorthShoreDrSouthHaven(269)63752201717VanBurenSubtotals:1,914923TOTAL:2,3821,135N/A=Informationnotavailable PalisadesPowerPlantE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolsandPreschoolswithintheEPZ PalisadesPowerPlantE 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ PalisadesPowerPlantE 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ PalisadesPowerPlantE 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.RecreationAreaswithintheEPZ PalisadesPowerPlantE 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 5.MarinaswithintheEPZ PalisadesPowerPlantE 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 6.LodgingwithintheEPZ APPENDIXFTelephoneSurvey PalisadesPowerPlantF 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F. TELEPHONESURVEYF.1 IntroductionThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesforthePalisadesEPZrequirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseverallimitationswhenappliedtoemergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneededtoidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,CensusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlymaynotaccuratelyrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.TheseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleoftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerningfamilydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthesurveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheform"Whatwouldyoudoif-?"andotherquestionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar("Howlongdoesittakeyouto-?")

PalisadesPowerPlantF 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlanAttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthesurveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeofapproximately600completedsurveyformsyi eldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alistofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF 1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlayingCensusdataandtheEPZboundary,againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsforeachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF 1.NotethattheaveragehouseholdsizecomputedinTableF 1wasanestimateforsamplingpurposesandwasnotuse dintheETEstudy.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.TableF 1.PalisadesTelephoneSurveySamplingPlanZIPPopulationwithinEPZ(2010)HouseholdsRequiredSample490133,2861,1725749022165653490388,0343,278159490432,51887042490563221095490571,10442321490641004624909012,5795,211253490982,8971,19558Total31,00512,369600AverageHouseholdSize:2.5TotalSampleRequired:600 PalisadesPowerPlantF 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3 SurveyResultsTheresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsoftheareacanbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobileownership,andautomobileavailability.Thedistributionsofthetimetoperformcertainpre evacuationactivitiesarethesecondcategoryofsurveyresults.Thesedataareprocessedtodevelopthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedinSection5.Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshavea"don'tknow"(DK)or"refused"entryforaresponse.Itisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthi stypetoaccepttheanswersofarespondentwhooffersaDKresponseforafewquestionsorwhorefusestoanswerafewquestions.ToaddresstheissueofoccasionalDK/refusedresponsesfromalargesample,thepracticeistoassumethatthedistributionoftheseresponsesisthesameasth eunderlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDK/refusedresponsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResultsHouseholdSizeFigureF 1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ.Theaveragehouseholdcontains2.4people.Theestimatedhouseholdsize(2.5persons)usedtodeterminethesurveysample(TableF 1)wasdrawnfromCensusdata.Theagreement(withinsamplingerrorrange)betweentheaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthesurveyandfr omtheCensusisanindicationofthereliabilityofthesurvey.FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ0%10%20%30%40%50%

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%ofHouseholds HouseholdSizePalisadesHouseholdSize PalisadesPowerPlantF 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AutomobileOwnershipTheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis1.92.Itshouldbenotedthat2.03percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF 2.FigureF 3andFigureF 4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.Notethatthemajorityofhouseholdswithoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2ormorepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability0%10%20%30%40%

50%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesPalisadesVehicleAvailability PalisadesPowerPlantF 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholdsFigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 1 5PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 0%20%40%60%

80%100%12345%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 6 9+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9+People PalisadesPowerPlantF 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RidesharingTheoverwhelmingproportion(95%)ofthehouseholdssurveyed(whodonotownavehicle)respondedthattheywouldsharearidewithaneighbor,relative,orfriendifacarwasnotavailabletothemwhenadvisedtoevacuateintheeventofanemergency.FigureF 5presentsthisresponse.FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference0%20%40%

60%80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholdsPalisadesRidesharewithNeighbor/Friend PalisadesPowerPlantF 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommutersFigureF 6presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashowsanaverageof0.89commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ,and52%ofhouseholdshaveatleastonecommuter.FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ0%10%20%30%

40%50%01234+%ofHouseholds NumberofCommutersPalisadesCommuters PalisadesPowerPlantF 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommuterTravelModesFigureF 7presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.08employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZF.3.2 EvacuationResponseSeveralquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulation'sresponsetoanemergency.Thesearenowdiscussed:"Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?"TheresponseisshowninFigureF 8.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.25vehicles."Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?"Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,46percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembersbeforeevacuatingand54percentindicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembers."Ifyouhadahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?"Basedontheresponsestothesurvey,19percentofhouseholdsdonothaveafamilypet.Ofthehouseholdswithpets,93percentofthemindicatedthattheywouldtaketheirpetswiththem,asshowninFigureF 9.0.8%1.0%0.6%89.6%8.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%RailBusWalk/BikeDriveAloneCarpool(2+)%ofCommuters NumberofCommutersPalisadesTravelModetoWork PalisadesPowerPlantF 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuationFigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets0%20%40%60%80%100%01234%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVehiclesUsedforEvacuation 0%20%40%

60%80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets PalisadesPowerPlantF 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationregardingcompliancewithinstructionstoshelterinplace.Theresultsindicatethat79percentofhouseholdswhoareadvisedtoshelterinplacewoulddoso;theremaining21percentwouldchoosetoevacuateth earea.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.Thus,thedataobtainedaboveisingoodagreementwiththefederalguidance."Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationspecificallyrelatedtothepossibilityofastagedevacuation.Thatis,askingapopulationtoshelterinplacenowandthentoevacuateafteraspecifiedperiodoftime.Resultsindicatethat67percentofhouseholdswouldfollowinstructionsanddelaythestartofevacuationuntilsoadvised,whilethebalanceof33percentwouldchoosetobeginevacuatingimmediately.F.3.3 TimeDistributionResultsThesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuationactivities.Theseact ivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheirday to daylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftheresponder'sexperience.ThemobilizationdistributionsprovidedbelowaretheresultofhavingappliedtheanalysisdescribedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization.

PalisadesPowerPlantF 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?"FigureF 10presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyabout90minutes.Eighty onepercentcanleavewithin25minutes.FigureF10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork"Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?"FigureF 11presentstheworktohometraveltimefortheEPZ.About85percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithin30minutesofleavingwork;nearlyallwithin90minutes.FigureF11.WorktoHomeTravelTime0%20%40%60%80%100%020406080100

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%020406080100

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)WorktoHomeTravel PalisadesPowerPlantF 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?"FigureF 12presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthisactivitymimicsafamily'spreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.ThedistributionshowninFigureF 12hasalong"tail."About90percentofhouseholdscanbereadytoleavehomewithin75minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditionaltwohours.FigureF12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180

%ofHouseholds TravelTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome PalisadesPowerPlantF 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakeyoutoclear6to8inchesofsnowfromyourdriveway?"Duringadverse,snowyweatherconditions,anadditionalactivitymustbeperformedbeforeresidentscandepartontheevacuationtrip.Althoughsnowscenariosassumethattheroadsandhighwayshavebeenplowedandarepassable(albeitatlowerspeedsandcapacities),itmaybenecessarytoclearaprivatedrivewaypriortoleavingthehomesothatthevehiclecanaccessthestreet.FigureF 13presentsthetimedistributionforremoving6to8inchesofsnowfromadriveway.Thetimedistributionforclearingthedrivewayhasalongtail;about91percentofdrivewaysarepassablewithin45minutes.Thelastdrivewayisclearedoneandonehalfhoursafterthestartofthisactivity.Notethatthoserespondents(45%)whoansweredthattheywouldnottaketimetocleartheirdrivewaywereassumedtobereadyimmediatelyatthestartofthisactivity.Essentiallytheywoulddrivethroughthesnowonthedrivewaytoaccesstheroadwayandbegintheirevacuationtrip.FigureF13.TimetoClearDrivewayof6" 8"ofSnowF.4 ConclusionsThetelephonesurveyprovidesvaluable,relevantdataassociatedwiththeEPZpopulation,whichhavebeenusedtoquantifydemographicsspecifictotheEPZ,and"mobilizationtime"whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.0%20%40%60%80%100%020406080100120140

%ofHouseholds TravelTime(min)TimetoRemoveSnowfromDriveway PalisadesPowerPlantF 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ATTACHMENTATelephoneSurveyInstrument PalisadesPowerPlant15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TelephoneSurveyInstrumentHello,mynameis___________andI'mworkingforFirstMarketResearchonasurveyforAllegan,BerrienandVanBurenCountiestoidentifylocalbehaviorduringemergencysituations.Thisinformationwillbeusedforemergencyplanningandwillbesharedwithlocalofficialstoenhanceemergencyresponseplansinyourareaforallhazards;emergencyplanningforsomehazardsmayrequireevacuation.Yourresponseswillgreatlycontributetolocalemergencypreparedness.Iwillnotaskforyourname.COL.1Unused COL.2Unused COL.3Unused COL.4Unused COL.5Unused SexCOL.81Male2FemaleINTERVIEWER:ASKTOSPEAKTOTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLDORTHESPOUSEOFTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLD.(Terminatecallifnotaresidence.)

DONOTASK:1A.Recordareacode.ToBeDeterminedCOL.9 111B.Recordexchangenumber.ToBeDeterminedCOL.12 142.Whatisyourhomezipcode?COL.15 193A.Intotal,howmanycars,orothervehiclesareusuallyavailabletothehousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.20 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIX7SEVEN8EIGHT9NINEORMORE0ZERO(NONE)XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.3BQ.3B3B.Inanemergency,couldyougetarideoutoftheareawithaneighbororfriend?COL.211YES2NOXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED4.Howmanypeopleusuallyliveinthishousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.22 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIXCOL.230TEN1ELEVEN2TWELVE3THIRTEEN4FOURTEEN5FIFTEEN PalisadesPowerPlant16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17SEVEN 8EIGHT9NINE6SIXTEEN7SEVENTEEN8EIGHTEEN9NINETEENORMOREXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED5.Howmanyadultsinthehouseholdcommutetoajob,ortocollegeonadailybasis?COL.24 0ZERO1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOURORMORE5DON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.9Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.9INTERVIEWER:ForeachpersonidentifiedinQuestion5,askQuestions6,7,and8.6.Thinkingaboutcommuter#1,howdoesthatpersonusuallytraveltoworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)Commuter#1 COL.25Commuter#2 COL.26Commuter#3COL.27Commuter#4 COL.28Rail1 1 1 1Bus2 2 2 2Walk/Bicycle3 3 3 3DriveAlone4 4 4 4Carpool 2ormorepeople5 5 5 5Don'tknow/Refused6 6 6 6 7.Howmuchtimeonaverage,wouldittakeCommuter#1totravelhomefromworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.29COL.30COL.31 COL.3215MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES PalisadesPowerPlant17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED PalisadesPowerPlant18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1COMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.33COL.34COL.35 COL.3615MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED8.ApproximatelyhowmuchtimedoesittakeCommuter#1tocompletepreparationforleavingworkorcollegepriortostartingthetriphome?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.37COL.38COL.39 COL.4015MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 9XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNO W/REFUSED PalisadesPowerPlant19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1COMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.41COL.42COL.43 COL.4415MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 9XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNO W/REFUSED9.Ifyouwereadvisedbylocalauthoritiestoevacuate,howmuchtimewouldittakethehouseholdtopackclothing,medications,securethehouse,loadthecar,andcompletepreparationspriortoevacuatingthearea?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.45COL.46 1LESSTHAN15MINUTES13HOURSTO3HOURS15MINUTES215 30MINUTES23HOURS16MINUTESTO3HOURS30MINUTES 331 45MINUTES33HOURS31MINUTESTO3HOURS45MINUTES 446MINUTES-1HOUR43HOURS46MINUTESTO4HOURS51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES54HOURSTO4HOURS15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES64HOURS16MINUTESTO4HOURS30MINUTES 71HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES74HOURS31MINUTESTO4HOURS45MINUTES 81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS84HOURS46MINUTESTO5HOURS92HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES95HOURSTO5HOURS30MINUTES02HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES05HOURS31MINUTESTO6HOURSX2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES XOVER6HOURS(SPECIFY_______)Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSCOL.471 DON'TKNOW/REFUSED10.Ifthereis6 8"ofsnowonyourdrivewayorcurb,wouldyouneedtoshovelouttoevacuate?Ifyes,howmuchtime,onaverage,wouldittakeyoutoclearthe6 8"ofsnowtomovethecarfromthedrivewayor PalisadesPowerPlant20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1curbtobegintheevacuationtrip?Assumetheroadsarepassable.(DONOTREADRESPONSES)COL.48COL.49 1LESSTHAN15MINUTES1OVER3HOURS(SPECIFY_______)215 30MINUTES2 DON'TKNOW/REFUSED 331 45MINUTES446MINUTES-1HOUR51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES 71HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES 81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS92HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES02HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES X2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSZNO,WILLNOTSHOVELOU T11.Pleasechooseoneofthefollowing(READANSWERS):A.Iwouldawaitthereturnofhouseholdcommuterstoevacuatetogether.B.Iwouldevacuateindependentlyandmeetotherhouseholdmemberslater.COL.50 1A2BXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED12.Howmanyvehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.511ONE2 TWO3 THREE4FOUR5 FIVE6 SIX7SEVEN8 EIGHT9 NINEORMORE0 ZERO(NONE)X DON'TKNOW/REFUSED PalisadesPowerPlant21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.113A.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.52 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED13B.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.53 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED14A.Ifyouhaveahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?(READANSWERS)COL.54SKIPTO1DON'THAVEAPE TENDSURVEY2YESQ.14B3NOENDSURVEYXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDENDSURVEYThankyouverymuch._______________________________(TELEPHONENUMBERCALLED)IFREQUESTED:Foradditionalinformation,contactyourCountyEmergencyManagementAgencyduringnormalbusinesshours.CountyEMAPhone Allegan(269)6730571 Berrien(269)9837141 VanBuren(269)6577786 APPENDIXGTrafficManagementPlan PalisadesPowerPlantG 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLANNUREG/CR 7002indicatesthattheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesshouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwereprovidedbythefollowingcounties. AlleganCounty,ESF#4Transportation&Evacuation,Appendix1 Berri enCounty,Attachment11,AppendixI,AnnexFpages22 25 VanBurenCounty,Supplement2toAppendix1,AnnexGpages4 7TheseplanswerereviewedandtheTCPsandACPsweremodeledaccordingly.FigureG 1presentsamapoftrafficcontrolpointsmodeledinDYNEVII.G.1 TrafficControlPointsAsdiscussedinSect ion9,trafficcontrolpointsatintersections(whicharecontrolled)aremodeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapre timedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasatrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypewaschangedtoanactuatedsignalintheDYNE VIIsystem.TableK 2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumberforthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.IftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeingaTCP,thecontroltypeisindicatedasaTrafficControlPoint,or"TCP",inTableK 2.Thelackofsignificantconge stioninthePalisadesEPZindicatesthatadditionaltrafficcontrolpointsarenotrequired.G.2 AccessControlPointsItisassumedthatACPswillbeestablishedwithin2hoursoftheadvisorytoevacuatetodiscouragethroughtravelersfromusingmajorthroughrouteswhichtraversetheEPZ.AsdiscussedinSection3.7,externa ltrafficwasonlyconsideredonthreerouteswhichtraversetheEPZ-Interstate196,Interstate94andStateRoute43-inthisanalysis.Thegenerationoftheseexternaltripsceasedat2hoursaftertheadvisorytoevacuateinthesimulation.

PalisadesPowerPlantG 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsModeledinDYNEVforthePPPSite APPENDIXHEvacuationRegions PalisadesPowerPlantH 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1H EVACUATIONREGIONSThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH 1)andmapsofallEvacuationRegions.ThepercentagespresentedinTableH 1arebasedonthemethodologydiscussedinassumption5ofSection2.2andshowninFigure2 1.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhousehol dswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.

PalisadesPowerPlantH 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableH 1.PercentofPAAPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegionRegionDescriptionPAA12345R012milering100%20%20%20%20%R025 milering100%100%100%20%20%R03FullEPZ100%100%100%100%100%Evacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R04N,NNE,NE100%100%20%20%20%ENE,E,ESESeeRegionR02R05SE,SSE,S,SSW,SW100%20%100%20%20%WSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion01Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R06N,NNE,NE100%100%100%100%20%ENE,E,ESESeeRegionR03R07SE,SSE,S,SSW,SW100%100%100%20%100%WSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion02StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionToward:PAA12345R08ENE,E,ESE100%100%100%20%20%R09N,NNE,NE100%100%20%20%20%R10SE,SSE,S,SSW,SW100%20%100%20%20%WSW,W,WNW,NW,NNWSeeRegion01PAA(s)Shelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuatePAA(s)Shelter in PlacePAA(s)Evacuate[1]20%ofpopulationinthesePAAswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR7002.Once90%ofthe2mileRegionhasevacuated,theremainingpopulationinthesePAAswillevacuate.

PalisadesPowerPlantH 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.0FigureH 1.RegionR01 PalisadesPowerPlantH 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.0FigureH 2.RegionR02 PalisadesPowerPlantH 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.0FigureH 3.RegionR03 PalisadesPowerPlantH 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.0FigureH 4.RegionR04 PalisadesPowerPlantH 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.0FigureH 5.RegionR05 PalisadesPowerPlantH 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.0FigureH 6.RegionR02 PalisadesPowerPlantH 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.0FigureH 7.RegionR07 PalisadesPowerPlantH 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.0FigureH 8.RegionR08 PalisadesPowerPlantH 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.0FigureH 9.RegionR09 PalisadesPowerPlantH 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.0FigureH10.RegionR10 PalisadesPowerPlantK 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORKAsdiscussedinSection1.3,alink nodeanalysisnetworkwasconstructedtomodeltheroadwaynetworkwithinthestudyarea.FigureK 1providesanoverviewofthelink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thefigurehasbeendividedupinto40moredetailedfigures(FigureK 2throughFigureK 41)whichshoweachofthelinksandnodesinthenetwork.Theanalysisnetworkwascalibrate dusingtheobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveyconductedinNovember2010.TableK 1liststhecharacteristicsofeachroadwaysectionmodeledintheETEanalysis.Eachlinkisidentifiedbyitsroadnameandtheupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers.ThegeographiclocationofeachlinkcanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovidedinTableK 1.TheroadwaytypeidentifiedinTableK 1isbasedonthefollowingcriteria: Freeway:limitedaccesshighway,2ormorelane sineachdirection,highfreeflowspeeds Freewayramp:rampontooroffofalimitedaccesshighway Majorarterial:3ormorelanesineachdirection Minorarterial:2ormorelanesineachdirection Collector:singlelaneineachdirection Localroadways:singlelaneineachdirection,localroadswithlowfreeflowspeedsTheterm,"No.ofLanes"inTableK 1identifiesthenumberoflanesthatextendthroughoutthelengthofthelink.Manylinkshaveadditionallanesontheimmediateapproachtoanintersection(turnpockets);thesehavebeenrecordedandenteredintotheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.AsdiscussedinSection1.3,lanewidthandshoulderwidthwerenotphysicallymeasuredduringtheroadsurvey.Rather,estimatesofthesemeasureswerebasedonvisualobservationsandrecordedimages.TableK 2identifieseachnodeinthenetworkthatiscontrolledandthetypeofcontrol(stopsign,yieldsign,pre timedsignal,actuatedsignal,trafficcontrolpoint)atthatnode.UncontrollednodesarenotincludedinTableK 2.Thelocationofeachnodecanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovided.

PalisadesPowerPlantK 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 1.PalisadesLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork PalisadesPowerPlantK 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1 PalisadesPowerPlantK 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2 PalisadesPowerPlantK 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3 PalisadesPowerPlantK 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4 PalisadesPowerPlantK 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5 PalisadesPowerPlantK 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6 PalisadesPowerPlantK 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7 PalisadesPowerPlantK 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8 PalisadesPowerPlantK 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9 PalisadesPowerPlantK 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10 PalisadesPowerPlantK 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11 PalisadesPowerPlantK 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12 PalisadesPowerPlantK 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13 PalisadesPowerPlantK 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14 PalisadesPowerPlantK 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15 PalisadesPowerPlantK 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16 PalisadesPowerPlantK 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17 PalisadesPowerPlantK 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18 PalisadesPowerPlantK 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19 PalisadesPowerPlantK 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19 PalisadesPowerPlantK 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20 PalisadesPowerPlantK 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21 PalisadesPowerPlantK 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22 PalisadesPowerPlantK 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23 PalisadesPowerPlantK 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24 PalisadesPowerPlantK 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25 PalisadesPowerPlantK 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26 PalisadesPowerPlantK 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27 PalisadesPowerPlantK 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28 PalisadesPowerPlantK 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29 PalisadesPowerPlantK 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30 PalisadesPowerPlantK 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31 PalisadesPowerPlantK 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32 PalisadesPowerPlantK 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK34.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33 PalisadesPowerPlantK 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK35.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34 PalisadesPowerPlantK 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK36.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35 PalisadesPowerPlantK 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK37.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36 PalisadesPowerPlantK 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK38.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37 PalisadesPowerPlantK 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK39.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38 PalisadesPowerPlantK 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK40.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39 PalisadesPowerPlantK 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK41.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40 PalisadesPowerPlantK 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristicsLink#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 11330REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 35881 12 417004537 22445CORD388COLLECTOR 18281 12 417004015 334I 196FREEWAY 22672141022507037 4383I 196ONRAMPFROMI 94 FREEWAYRAMP 14611 12 417004037 543I 196FREEWAY 22672141022507037 645I 196FREEWAY 29382141022505537 7483I 196OFFRAMPTOI 94 FREEWAYRAMP 25941 12 415753037 854I 196FREEWAY 29382141022507037 956I 196FREEWAY 25372141022507037 1065I 196FREEWAY 25372141022505537 1167I 196FREEWAY 17032141022507528 1276I 196FREEWAY 17032141022507528 1378I 196FREEWAY 32282141022507528 1487I 196FREEWAY 32282141022507528 1589I 196FREEWAY 44552141022507528 1698I 196FREEWAY 44552141022507528 17910I 196FREEWAY 7142141022507527 18109I 196FREEWAY 7142141022507527 191011I 196FREEWAY 26532141022507528 201110I 196FREEWAY 26532141022507528 211112I 196FREEWAY 10142141022507028 221211I 196FREEWAY 10142141022507028 231213I 196FREEWAY 29042141022507028 PalisadesPowerPlantK 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 241312I 196FREEWAY 29042141022507028 251314I 196FREEWAY 76162141022507028 261413I 196FREEWAY 76162141022507028 271415I 196FREEWAY 32802141022507023 281514I 196FREEWAY 32802141022507023 291516I 196FREEWAY 17842141022507523 301615I 196FREEWAY 17842141022507023 311617I 196FREEWAY 11572141022507523 321716I 196FREEWAY 11572141022507523 331718I 196FREEWAY 80452141022507523 341817I 196FREEWAY 80452141022507523 351819I 196FREEWAY 18522141022507523 361918I 196FREEWAY 18402141022507523 371920I 196FREEWAY 17722141022507523 382019I 196FREEWAY 17722141022507523 392021I 196FREEWAY 23442141022507523 402120I 196FREEWAY 23442141022507523 412122I 196FREEWAY 26822141022507523 422223I 196FREEWAY 25392141022507523 432324I 196FREEWAY 32782141022507523 442425I 196FREEWAY 26202141022507517 452526I 196FREEWAY 30632141022507517 462627I 196FREEWAY 30682141022507517 472631I 196FREEWAY 21752141022507517 482728I 196FREEWAY 26472141022507517 PalisadesPowerPlantK 45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 492829I 196FREEWAY 32622141022507523 502930I 196FREEWAY 27882141022507523 513021I 196FREEWAY 25032141022507523 523126I 196FREEWAY 21752141022507517 533132I 196FREEWAY 40672141022507517 543231I 196FREEWAY 40672141022507517 553233I 196FREEWAY 35372141022507517 563332I 196FREEWAY 35372141022507517 573334I 196FREEWAY 66902141022507518 583433I 196FREEWAY 66902141022507518 593435I 196FREEWAY 28962141022507518 603534I 196FREEWAY 28962141022507518 613536I 196FREEWAY 22782141022507512 623635I 196FREEWAY 22822141022507512 633638I 196FREEWAY 43072141022507012 643836I 196FREEWAY 43072141022507512 653839I 196FREEWAY 21252141022507512 663938I 196FREEWAY 21252141022507012 673940I 196FREEWAY 7012141022507512 684039I 196FREEWAY 7012141022507512 694041I 196FREEWAY 76362141022507512 704140I 196FREEWAY 76362141022507512 714142I 196FREEWAY 24772141022507510 724241I 196FREEWAY 24772141022507510 734243I 196FREEWAY 26162141022507510 PalisadesPowerPlantK 46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 744342I 196FREEWAY 26162141022507510 754344I 196FREEWAY 17812141022507510 764443I 196FREEWAY 17812141022507510 774445I 196FREEWAY 59682141022507510 784544I 196FREEWAY 59682141022507510 794546I 196FREEWAY 232621410225075 7 804645I 196FREEWAY 233121410225075 7 814647I 196FREEWAY 104721410225075 7 824746I 196FREEWAY 104721410225075 7 834748I 196FREEWAY 342421410225075 7 844847I 196FREEWAY 342421410225075 7 854849I 196FREEWAY 522121410225075 7 864948I 196FREEWAY 522121410225075 7 874950I 196FREEWAY 115821410225075 5 885049I 196FREEWAY 115821410225075 5 895051I 196FREEWAY 449821410225075 5 905150I 196FREEWAY 449821410225075 5 915152I 196FREEWAY 177521410225070 5 925251I 196FREEWAY 177821410225070 5 935253I 196FREEWAY 349921410225070 5 945352I 196FREEWAY 349921410225070 5 955354I 196FREEWAY 231621410225055 3 965453I 196FREEWAY 231621410225070 3 975455I 196FREEWAY 141421410225070 3 985554I 196FREEWAY 141421410225055 3

PalisadesPowerPlantK 47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 995556I 196FREEWAY 400221410225070 3 1005655I 196FREEWAY 400221410225070 3 1015657I 196FREEWAY 145321410225070 3 1025756I 196FREEWAY 145321410225070 3 1035758I 196FREEWAY 776921410225070 2 1045857I 196FREEWAY 776921410225070 2 10558145I 196FREEWAY 99321410225070 2 1065960I 196FREEWAY 553221410225070 2 10759145I 196FREEWAY 143221410225070 2 1086059I 196FREEWAY 553221410225070 2 109608060I 196FREEWAY 366321410225055 1 110614I 196ONRAMPFROMI 94 FREEWAYRAMP 13511 12 417004537 1116162I 94FREEWAY 72102141022507037 1126183I 94FREEWAY 29112141022506037 1136261I 94FREEWAY 72102141022507037 1146263I 94FREEWAY 62602141022507528 1156362I 94FREEWAY 62602141022507528 1166364I 94FREEWAY 33152141022507528 1176463I 94FREEWAY 33152141022507528 1186465I 94FREEWAY 42612141022507528 1196564I 94FREEWAY 42732141022507528 1206566I 94FREEWAY 11062141022507528 1216665I 94FREEWAY 11062141022507528 1226667I 94FREEWAY 96742141022507529 1236766I 94FREEWAY 96742141022507529 PalisadesPowerPlantK 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 1246768I 94FREEWAY 22292141022507529 1256867I 94FREEWAY 22292141022507529 1266869I 94FREEWAY 36882141022507529 1276968I 94FREEWAY 36882141022507529 1286970I 94FREEWAY 18762141022507529 1297069I 94FREEWAY 18762141022507529 1307071I 94FREEWAY 100042141022507529 1317170I 94FREEWAY 100042141022507529 1327172I 94FREEWAY 29482141022507530 1337271I 94FREEWAY 29482141022507530 1347273I 94FREEWAY 62872141022507530 1357372I 94FREEWAY 62872141022507530 1367374I 94FREEWAY 15252141022507530 1377473I 94FREEWAY 15252141022507530 1387475I 94FREEWAY 49642141022507530 1397574I 94FREEWAY 49642141022507530 1407576I 94FREEWAY 71672141022507530 1417675I 94FREEWAY 71672141022507530 1427677I 94FREEWAY 12272141022507530 1437776I 94FREEWAY 12272141022507530 1447778I 94FREEWAY 36182141022507531 1457877I 94FREEWAY 36182141022507531 1467879I 94FREEWAY 64932141022507531 1477978I 94FREEWAY 64952141022507531 1487980I 94FREEWAY 66282141022507531 PalisadesPowerPlantK 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 1498079I 94FREEWAY 66282141022507531 1508081I 94FREEWAY 55132141022507531 1518180I 94FREEWAY 55132141022507531 152818082I 94FREEWAY 43132141022507031 1538361I 94FREEWAY 29112141022506037 1548391I 94FREEWAY 14733141022506037 1558485I 94FREEWAY 17413141022507034 1568491I 94FREEWAY 33343141022506034 1578584I 94FREEWAY 17413141022507034 1588586I 94FREEWAY 12693141022507034 15985342I 94OFFRAMPTOEMAINST FREEWAYRAMP 12861 12 417004034 1608685I 94FREEWAY 12693141022507034 1618687I 94FREEWAY 24603141022507036 1628786I 94FREEWAY 24603141022507036 1638788I 94FREEWAY 67373141022507036 1648887I 94FREEWAY 67373141022507036 1658889I 94FREEWAY 22063141022507036 1668988I 94FREEWAY 22063141022507036 167898089I 94FREEWAY 18893141022507036 168913I 196ONRAMPFROMI 94 FREEWAYRAMP 25532 12 417004537 1699183I 94FREEWAY 14733141022506037 1709184I 94FREEWAY 33343141022506034 1719293PLANTACCESSRD COLLECTOR 19021 12 417004017 1729394BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 16371121017006017 17393100BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10811121017005017 PalisadesPowerPlantK 50KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 1749495BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 7681121017006017 1759596BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 42041121017006017 176969732NDAVECOLLECTOR 6051 12 417005517 17796322BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 24671121017006017 178979832NDAVECOLLECTOR 10421 12 417005517 1799826I 196ONRAMPFROM32NDAVEFREEWAYRAMP 10921 12 417004017 180989932NDAVECOLLECTOR 12851 12 417005517 1819931I 196ONRAMPFROM32NDAVEFREEWAYRAMP 12641 12 417004017 182999832NDAVECOLLECTOR 12851 12 417005517 1839921132NDAVECOLLECTOR 118181 12 417005518 184100101BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 19921121017006017 185101102BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 17001121017006017 186102103BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10691121017006017 187103104BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10841121017006017 188104105BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 27461121017006018 189105106BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 26321121017006018 190106107BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 3821121017006018 191107108BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 13041121017006018 192108109BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 27771121017006012 193109110BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 31761121017006012 194110111BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 27631121017006012 195111112BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 23641121017006012 196112368BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 12741121017006012 PalisadesPowerPlantK 51KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 197113114BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 11792121019006010 198113437LAGRANGEST COLLECTOR 14851 12 417004010 199114115BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 13452121017506010 200115116BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 12322121019005010 201115154SR43MINORARTERIAL 9841 12 415753510 202115168SR43MINORARTERIAL 65221 12 417005012 203116117BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 22292121019005010 204117118BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 26172121017505010 205118119BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 27022121019005010 206118161CORD388COLLECTOR 23812 12 419004010 207130146109THAVECOLLECTOR 54701 12 4170060 3 208131130BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 13821 12 4170045 3 209131132BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 17671 12 4170045 3 210132131BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 17671 12 4170045 3 211132133BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 19651 12 4157535 3 212133132BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 19651 12 4170045 3 213133134BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10341 12 4170045 3 214134133BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10341 12 4157535 3 215134135BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 30191 12 4170050 3 216135134BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 30191 12 4170045 3 217135136BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10641 12 4170050 3 218136135BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10641 12 4170050 3 219136369BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 34631 12 4170050 3 220137138BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10521 12 4170045 2 221137369BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 11681 12 4112525 2 PalisadesPowerPlantK 52KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 222138137BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10521 12 4170045 2 223138370BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 7031 12 4170055 2 224139140BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 13671 12 4170055 2 225139370BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 12471 12 4170055 2 226140139BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 13671 12 4170055 2 227140141BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10501 12 4170055 2 228141140BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10501 12 4170055 2 229141145I 196ONRAMPFROMBLUESTARHWYFREEWAYRAMP 17211 12 4112525 2 230171170SR43MINORARTERIAL 16901 12 417006019 231171172SR43MINORARTERIAL 11851 12 417006019 232172171SR43MINORARTERIAL 11851 12 417006019 233172173SR43MINORARTERIAL 11851 12 417006019 234173172SR43MINORARTERIAL 11851 12 417006019 235173174SR43MINORARTERIAL 55181 12 417006019 236174173SR43MINORARTERIAL 55181 12 417006019 237174175SR43MINORARTERIAL 10161 12 417006019 238175174SR43MINORARTERIAL 10161 12 417006019 239175176SR43MINORARTERIAL 39431 12 417006019 240176175SR43MINORARTERIAL 39431 12 417006019 241176177SR43MINORARTERIAL 34471 12 417006019 242177176SR43MINORARTERIAL 34471 12 417006019 243177178SR43MINORARTERIAL 65331 12 417006019 24417742962NDSTCOLLECTOR 67881 12 417006019 245178177SR43MINORARTERIAL 65331 12 417006019 PalisadesPowerPlantK 53KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 246178179SR43MINORARTERIAL 20351 12 417004519 247179178SR43MINORARTERIAL 20351 12 417004519 248179180SR43MINORARTERIAL 9581 12 415753519 249180179SR43MINORARTERIAL 9581 12 415753519 250180181SR43MINORARTERIAL 5711 12 415753519 251181180SR43MINORARTERIAL 5711 12 415753519 252181371SR43MINORARTERIAL 4601 12 411252520 253182183SR43MINORARTERIAL 9961 12 411252520 254182371SR43MINORARTERIAL 6601 12 411252520 255183182SR43MINORARTERIAL 9961 12 411252520 256183372SR43MINORARTERIAL 21821 12 415753520 257184185SR43MINORARTERIAL 74801 12 415753520 258184372SR43MINORARTERIAL 7181 12 417004520 259185184SR43MINORARTERIAL 74801 12 417005520 260185186SR43MINORARTERIAL 13971 12 417005520 261185411CORD215COLLECTOR 78551 12 417006020 262186185SR43MINORARTERIAL 13971 12 415753520 263186187SR43MINORARTERIAL 9721 12 417005520 264187186SR43MINORARTERIAL 9721 12 417005520 265187188SR43MINORARTERIAL 16681 12 417005520 266188187SR43MINORARTERIAL 16681 12 417005520 267188189SR43MINORARTERIAL 21791 12 417006020 268189188SR43MINORARTERIAL 21791 12 417005520 269189190SR43MINORARTERIAL 111421 12 417006020 270190189SR43MINORARTERIAL 111421 12 417005520 PalisadesPowerPlantK 54KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 271190191SR43MINORARTERIAL 66211 12 417006021 272191190SR43MINORARTERIAL 66211 12 417006021 2731918191SR43MINORARTERIAL 17271 12 417003521 274192193CORD388COLLECTOR 104961 12 417006014 275192440CORD388COLLECTOR 53061 12 417005514 276193441CORD388COLLECTOR 36111 12 417006014 277194442CORD388COLLECTOR 35311 12 417006014 278195487CORD388COLLECTOR 22621 12 417006015 279196444CORD388COLLECTOR 6331 12 411252515 280196446CORD215COLLECTOR 9931 12 417006015 281197198CORD388COLLECTOR 12941 12 417005015 282198199CORD388COLLECTOR 17811 12 417005015 283199200CORD388COLLECTOR 35071 12 417006015 2842008200CORD388COLLECTOR15141 12 417003516 285201150PHEONIXRDMINORARTERIAL 8161 12 417501510 286202470CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 2891 12 413503010 287202471CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 2941 12 413503010 28820439I 196ONRAMPFROMSR140 FREEWAYRAMP 13491 12 411252512 289204475SR140COLLECTOR 36911 12 417005512 290206204SR140COLLECTOR 68401 12 417006012 291206434CORD380COLLECTOR 64541 12 417005518 292207206SR140COLLECTOR 31991 12 417006018 293208207SR140COLLECTOR 14571 12 417006018 294209208SR140COLLECTOR 15731 12 417006018 295210209SR140COLLECTOR 76811 12 417006018 PalisadesPowerPlantK 55KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 296210426CORD378COLLECTOR 93271 12 417006018 2972119932NDAVECOLLECTOR 118181 12 417005518 298211210SR140COLLECTOR 26121 12 417005018 299211476SR140COLLECTOR 9041 12 415753518 300212477SR140COLLECTOR 14701 12 411252518 301213214SR140COLLECTOR 52431 12 417006024 30221339144THAVECOLLECTOR 104511 12 417005024 303214215SR140COLLECTOR 57021 12 417006024 304215216SR140COLLECTOR 49851 12 417006024 305215235CORD372COLLECTOR 27111 12 417005524 306216217SR140COLLECTOR 22711 12 417006029 307217514SR140COLLECTOR 32721 12 417006029 308218219SR140COLLECTOR 21052 12 419004029 309219513SR140COLLECTOR 11642 12 419004029 310220357ESTJOSEPHST COLLECTOR 34561 12 415753529 311220358WSTJOSEPHST COLLECTOR 13811 12 415753529 312220511SR140COLLECTOR 15102 12 419002529 31322167I 94ONRAMPFROMSR140 FREEWAYRAMP 13771 12 417004029 314221222SR140COLLECTOR 8651 12 415753529 31522268I 94ONRAMPFROMSR140 FREEWAYRAMP 10631 12 417004029 316222223SR140COLLECTOR 70531 12 417006029 317223224SR140COLLECTOR 72121 12 417006038 318224225SR140COLLECTOR 80051 12 417006038 319225226SR140COLLECTOR 52771 12 417006038 3202268226SR140COLLECTOR 14881 12 417003538 PalisadesPowerPlantK 56KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 321227457109THAVECOLLECTOR 46271 12 4170060 4 322228461109THAVECOLLECTOR 42901 12 4170060 4 323229554109THAVECOLLECTOR 26161 12 4157535 9 32423015I 196ONRAMPFROMCORD370FREEWAYRAMP 12921 12 417004023 325230306CORD372COLLECTOR 3761 12 415753523 326231230CORD372COLLECTOR 48431 12 417005523 327232231CORD372COLLECTOR 24171 12 417005523 328233383CORD372COLLECTOR 98861 12 417005523 329234233CORD372COLLECTOR 53391 12 417005523 330234235CORD372COLLECTOR 52611 12 417005524 331235215CORD372COLLECTOR 27111 12 417005524 332235234CORD372COLLECTOR 52611 12 417005524 333236237PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 25361 12 417004029 334236385PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 9281 12 49002024 335237236PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 25361 12 417004029 336237238PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 6101 12 49002029 337238237PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 6101 12 49002029 338238239PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 9911 12 49002029 339239238PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 9911 12 49002029 340239240PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 26981 12 417004029 341240234JOHNSONRD COLLECTOR 63831 12 415753524 342240239PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 26981 12 417004029 343240241PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 28781 12 417004029 344241240PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 28781 12 417004029 PalisadesPowerPlantK 57KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 345241242PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 27501 12 417004028 346242241PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 27501 12 417004528 347242384PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 23201 12 417004028 348243219PAWPAWAVE COLLECTOR 13471 12 413503029 349244245PAWPAWAVE COLLECTOR 68631 12 419005529 350244516PAWPAWAVE COLLECTOR 9761 12 417004529 351245246PAWPAWST COLLECTOR 10472 12 419004028 352245384PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 8532 12 419004028 353246258NPAWPAWST COLLECTOR 5181 12 415753528 354247248SCHURCHST COLLECTOR 5691 12 411252528 355247259ECENTERSTCOLLECTOR 22841 12 411252528 356247374CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 13041 12 415753528 357248249SCHURCHST COLLECTOR 7241 12 417502528 358249359WSTJOSEPHST COLLECTOR 5351 12 411252528 359249373SCHURCHST COLLECTOR 14371 12 417503028 36025065I 94ONRAMPFROMFRIDAYSTFREEWAYRAMP 6451 12 417004028 361250251FRIDAYRDLOCALROADWAY 8801 12 415753528 36225166I 94ONRAMPFROMFRIDAYSTFREEWAYRAMP 10171 12 417004028 363251252FRIDAYRDLOCALROADWAY 10241 12 415753528 364252505FRIDAYRDLOCALROADWAY 17331 12 417005028 365423424CENTRALAVE COLLECTOR 11241 12 417004023 366424422CENTRALAVE COLLECTOR 12151 12 417004023 367425421CENTRALAVE COLLECTOR 34641 12 417005028 PalisadesPowerPlantK 58KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 368426427CORD378COLLECTOR 95381 12 417006018 369427428CORD378COLLECTOR 16831 12 411252519 370428402CORD378COLLECTOR 65511 12 417006019 371429485CORD380COLLECTOR 105111 12 417005519 37242952862NDSTCOLLECTOR 105291 12 417006014 373431400CORD687COLLECTOR 10311 12 49002019 374432170CORD380COLLECTOR 31961 12 417005518 375433432CORD380COLLECTOR 18911 12 415753518 376434433CORD380COLLECTOR 50761 12 417005518 377435121BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 200121210190035 6 378435380BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 40911210190035 6 379436123BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 8781 12 4170035 6 380436382BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 3181 12 4157535 6 381437165LAGRANGEST COLLECTOR 8502 12 417504010 382438155DYCKMANAVE COLLECTOR 3141 12 415753510 383439160CORD388COLLECTOR 73351 12 417004011 384439440CORD388COLLECTOR 14011 12 415753511 385440192CORD388COLLECTOR 53061 12 417006014 386440439CORD388COLLECTOR 14011 12 415753511 387253254FRIDAYRDLOCALROADWAY 70251 12 417005537 388254255NBRANCHRD COLLECTOR 24501 12 417006037 389255506NBRANCHRD COLLECTOR 47721 12 417006037 3902562571STSTCOLLECTOR 4321 12 415753537 391257498TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 12371 12 411252537 392257500TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 16381 12 415753537 PalisadesPowerPlantK 59KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 393258517NCHURCHST COLLECTOR 13281 12 417502528 394259247ECENTERSTCOLLECTOR 22841 12 417503528 395259249EJOSEPHSTCOLLECTOR 23111 12 417503028 396259260REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 44571 12 417004529 397260259REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 44571 12 417004529 398260261REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 32201 12 417004529 399261260REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 32201 12 417004529 400261358REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 9581 12 417004029 401262496TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 80041 12 417005037 402263386CORD378COLLECTOR 10311 12 417006019 403264183CORD681COLLECTOR 13062 12 419002520 404264184E.ARLINGTONST COLLECTOR 26791 12 413503020 405264483CORD681COLLECTOR 13881 12 413503020 406265183CORD681COLLECTOR 19552 12 419003020 407266390CORD681COLLECTOR 52991 12 417006026 408267488CORD681COLLECTOR 80491 12 417006026 409268274REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 34461 12 417005031 410268489CORD681COLLECTOR 109901 12 417006031 411269354REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 32231 12 417005529 412270353REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 10391 12 415253530 413271281CORD687COLLECTOR 18171 12 413503030 414271352REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 23351 12 415753530 415272273REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 26041 12 417005030 416273268REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 83781 12 417005030 417274275REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 16401 12 417005031 PalisadesPowerPlantK 60KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 418275276REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 26571 12 417005531 419276414REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 24941 12 417004531 420277349CORD673COLLECTOR 10771 12 411252531 421277556E.JOSEPHST COLLECTOR 25851 12 411252531 42227973I 94ONRAMPFROMCORD687FREEWAYRAMP 8461 12 417004030 423279280CORD687COLLECTOR 9061 12 415753530 42428074I 94ONRAMPFROMCORD687FREEWAYRAMP 9911 12 417004030 425280518CORD687COLLECTOR 15061 12 415753530 426281519CORD687COLLECTOR 12851 12 413503030 427282283CORD687COLLECTOR 104051 12 417006039 4282838283CORD687COLLECTOR 65971 12 417003539 429284271CORD687COLLECTOR 16561 12 417502530 430285389CORD215COLLECTOR 14321 12 411252520 431285529CORD215COLLECTOR 25441 12 413503020 432285533CORD380COLLECTOR 26051 12 411252520 433286555CORD380COLLECTOR 23291 12 417004021 434287285CORD380COLLECTOR 27101 12 415753520 435288289CORD215COLLECTOR 12201 12 415753515 436289530CORD215COLLECTOR 20001 12 417004015 437290291CORD215COLLECTOR 10731 12 415753515 4382912CORD215COLLECTOR 76991 12 415753515 439292185CORD215COLLECTOR 83611 12 417005020 44029380CORD215OFFRAMPTOI 94 FREEWAYRAMP 8701 12 417004031 PalisadesPowerPlantK 61KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 441293294CORD673COLLECTOR 12371 12 417003531 44229480I 94ONRAMPFROMCORD215FREEWAYRAMP 15441 12 417004031 443295293CORD673COLLECTOR 56401 12 417006031 444296277CORD673COLLECTOR 87821 12 417502526 445297298BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 58501121017006023 446298321BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 20651121017006023 447299300BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 28951121017006023 448322297BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 30501121017006017 449323307CENTRALAVE COLLECTOR 14651 12 417004023 45032411I 96ONRAMPFROMCOLOMARDFREEWAYRAMP 12651 12 411252527 451325378COLOMARDCOLLECTOR 75991 12 417005528 452326327REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 39271 12 417006028 453327362REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 13991 12 417004528 454328363REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 15921 12 417006028 455330331REDARROWHWYOFFRAMPTOI 196FREEWAYRAMP 8881 12 413503037 456330332REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 12251 12 417005537 4573315I 196ONRAMPFROMREDARROWHWY FREEWAYRAMP 13861 12 413503037 458332510REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 13351 12 417005537 459333334REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 7241 12 417004534 460334335REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 10061 12 417004534 461335364REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 19811 12 417004534 PalisadesPowerPlantK 62KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 462336337NEUCLIDAVE COLLECTOR 25451 12 415753534 463337346TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 25771 12 415753534 464338503TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 22941 12 417004537 465339338TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 28171 12 417004537 466340341TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 16081 12 413503033 467341560TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 15041 12 413503033 46834284I 94ONRAMPFROMEMAINSTFREEWAYRAMP 35701 12 417004034 46934286I 94ONRAMPFROMEMAINSTFREEWAYRAMP 11161 12 411252534 470342504EMAINSTFREEWAY 37212 12 422506034 471380435BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 41021210190035 6 472381163NSHOREDRCOLLECTOR 14241 12 4170040 7 473381382NSHOREDRTRAFFICCIRCLETOBLUESTARHWY COLLECTOR 2121 12 4120025 6 474382122BLUESTARHWYTRAFFICCIRCLETONSHOREDR COLLECTOR 1871 12 4112525 6 475382436BLUESTARHWY COLLECTOR 3181 12 4157535 6 476383232CORD372COLLECTOR 8481 12 417004523 477384242PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 22921 12 417004028 478384245PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 8262 12 419004028 479385235PAWPAWLAKERD COLLECTOR 27401 12 417005524 480386387CORD378COLLECTOR 22381 12 411252519 481387388CORD378COLLECTOR 9581 12 413503020 482388264CORD378COLLECTOR 9941 12 413503020 PalisadesPowerPlantK 63KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 483389292CORD215COLLECTOR 40301 12 411252520 484390267CORD681COLLECTOR 105971 12 417006026 48539139244THAVECOLLECTOR 49071 12 417004024 486392393CORD376COLLECTOR 13511 12 49002024 487393396CORD376COLLECTOR 10091 12 49002024 488394395CORD376COLLECTOR 12211 12 415753025 489395397CORD376COLLECTOR 7861 12 49002025 490396394CORD376COLLECTOR 41541 12 415753025 491397481CORD376COLLECTOR 45441 12 417005025 492399431CORD687COLLECTOR 42541 12 417005019 493400401CORD687COLLECTOR 12391 12 415753019 494401402CORD687COLLECTOR 26001 12 417005019 495402524CORD378COLLECTOR 39401 12 417006019 496403263CORD378COLLECTOR 20451 12 415753519 497404405CORD687COLLECTOR 51741 12 417005025 498405406CORD687COLLECTOR 28771 12 417004025 499406407CORD687COLLECTOR 11421 12 415753525 500407408CORD687COLLECTOR 16571 12 417004030 501408284CORD687COLLECTOR 12811 12 415753530 502409410CORD215COLLECTOR 13771 12 417004026 503410413CORD215COLLECTOR 50371 12 417006026 504411412CORD215COLLECTOR 50711 12 417006026 505412409CORD215COLLECTOR 57501 12 417006026 506413414CORD215COLLECTOR 75121 12 417006026 507414350REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 13381 12 417004531 PalisadesPowerPlantK 64KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 508415324COLOMARDCOLLECTOR 4151 12 417004027 509416415RIVERSIDERD COLLECTOR 27491 12 417005527 510417416RIVERSIDERD COLLECTOR 7611 12 417005028 511418419RIVERSIDERD COLLECTOR 6181 12 415753528 512419417RIVERSIDERD COLLECTOR 9741 12 415753528 513420418RIVERSIDERD COLLECTOR 9831 12 417005028 514421420RIVERSIDERD COLLECTOR 36651 12 417005028 515422425CENTRALAVE COLLECTOR 5841 12 49002023 516423323CENTRALAVE COLLECTOR 9231 12 417004023 517560559PINESTLOCALROADWAY 10151 12 417502533 518806060I 196FREEWAY 366321410225070 1 519808281I 94FREEWAY 43132141022507531 520119118BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 27022121017505010 521119120BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 9162121019005510 522120119BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 9162121019005510 523120121BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 235821210190055 6 524121120BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 235821210190055 6 525121435BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 200321210190055 6 526122380NSHORETRAFFICCIRCLETOBLUESTARHWY COLLECTOR 2211 12 4112525 6 527123124BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 22171 12 4170055 6 528123436BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 8781 12 4170055 6 529124123BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 22171 12 4170055 6 530124125BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 30211 12 4170055 6 531125124BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 30181 12 4170055 6 PalisadesPowerPlantK 65KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 532125126BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 39771 12 4170055 7 533126125BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 39801 12 4170055 7 534126127BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 33201 12 4170055 5 535127126BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 33201 12 4170055 5 536127128BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 5791 12 4170055 5 537128127BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 5791 12 4170055 5 53844046568THSTCOLLECTOR 53981 12 417006014 539441194CORD388COLLECTOR 11721 12 417005014 540442195CORD388COLLECTOR 7471 12 417004514 541443196CORD388COLLECTOR 10141 12 417004015 5424442CORD388COLLECTOR 7291 12 417004015 543445197CORD388COLLECTOR 42631 12 417006015 544446455CORD215COLLECTOR 42721 12 417006015 545447456BASELINERD COLLECTOR 13861 12 417004015 54644844956THSTCOLLECTOR 43611 12 4170060 9 54744945056THSTCOLLECTOR 8991 12 4170050 9 54845045156THSTCOLLECTOR 3071 12 490020 9 54945145256THSTCOLLECTOR 52441 12 4170060 9 55045245356THSTCOLLECTOR 52501 12 4170060 9 55145345456THSTCOLLECTOR 52401 12 4170060 9 55245422956THSTCOLLECTOR 27361 12 4170060 9 553455447CORD215COLLECTOR 3061 12 49002015 554456448BASELINERD COLLECTOR 2811 12 46751515 555457458109THAVECOLLECTOR 57381 12 4170050 8 556458229109THAVECOLLECTOR 52381 12 4170055 9 PalisadesPowerPlantK 66KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 557459227109THAVECOLLECTOR 51781 12 4170060 4 558460228109THAVECOLLECTOR 16981 12 4170045 4 559461459109THAVECOLLECTOR 10171 12 4170045 4 56046214968THSTCOLLECTOR 52431 12 4170060 8 56146346268THSTCOLLECTOR 104491 12 4170060 8 56246446368THSTCOLLECTOR 75881 12 4170060 8 56346546468THSTCOLLECTOR 6091 12 490020 8 564466467PHEONIXRDMINORARTERIAL 4682 12 411252510 565467118PHEONIXRDMINORARTERIAL 17372 12 417504010 566468159NSHOREDRCOLLECTOR 13491 12 4157530 6 567469122NSHOREDRCOLLECTOR 4441 12 4157535 6 568470201CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 6251 12 413503010 569471202CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 2941 12 413503010 570471472CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 12191 12 413503010 571472471CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 12191 12 413503010 572472473CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 14431 12 413503010 573473166CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 12901 12 413503010 574473472CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 14431 12 413503010 575474202ERIESTLOCALROADWAY 9551 12 413503010 576475113SR140COLLECTOR 29541 12 417505512 577476212SR140COLLECTOR 17011 12 415753518 578477478SR140COLLECTOR 14701 12 417005518 579478213SR140COLLECTOR 102331 12 417006024 580481399CORD687COLLECTOR 78811 12 415753525 581481404CORD687COLLECTOR 78661 12 415753525 PalisadesPowerPlantK 67KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 582481520CORD376COLLECTOR 26451 12 417005025 583482390CORD376COLLECTOR 52661 12 417004025 584483266CORD681COLLECTOR 64781 12 417006020 585484487CORD681COLLECTOR 124031 12 417005515 586485287CORD380COLLECTOR 74421 12 415753520 587485484CORD681COLLECTOR 104791 12 417005515 588485486CORD681COLLECTOR 84751 12 415753520 589486265CORD681COLLECTOR 20931 12 415753520 590487443CORD388COLLECTOR 80121 12 417006015 591488268CORD681COLLECTOR 19721 12 417004531 592489490CORD681COLLECTOR 53351 12 417006031 593490491CORD681COLLECTOR 76631 12 417006031 5944918490CORD681COLLECTOR 39521 12 417003540 595496225TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 52901 12 417006038 596497262TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 27911 12 417005037 597498499TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 10531 12 417004037 598499497TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 32041 12 417006037 599500501TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 9231 12 417004537 600501502TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 10211 12 417004537 601502339TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 19481 12 417004537 602503337TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 79511 12 417005534 603503507NBENTONCENTERRD COLLECTOR 19731 12 417005534 604504342EMAINSTFREEWAY 37202 12 422506034 605504343WMAINSTFREEWAY 17842 12 422506034 606505253FRIDAYRDCOLLECTOR 35481 12 417005528 PalisadesPowerPlantK 68KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 607506256NBRANCHRD COLLECTOR 31231 12 415753537 608507508SBENTONCENTERRD COLLECTOR 40651 12 417005536 6095088508SBENTONCENTERRD COLLECTOR 14401 12 417003536 610509503NBENTONCENTERRD COLLECTOR 40651 12 417005534 611510333REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 51591 12 417005534 612510509NBENTONCENTERRD COLLECTOR 33511 12 417005534 613511221SR140COLLECTOR 12801 12 415753529 614512220SR140COLLECTOR 6051 12 417503529 615513512SR140COLLECTOR 12441 12 413503029 616514218SR140COLLECTOR 23221 12 417006029 617515243PAWPAWAVE COLLECTOR 17471 12 413503029 618516515PAWPAWAVE COLLECTOR 10301 12 415753529 619517247NCHURCHST COLLECTOR 3201 12 417502528 620518282CORD687COLLECTOR 108101 12 417006030 621519279CORD687COLLECTOR 18551 12 417004030 62252052163RDAVECOLLECTOR 28431 12 417006025 62352152663RDAVECOLLECTOR 8961 12 49002025 62452252762NDSTCOLLECTOR 8721 12 411252525 62552352462NDSTCOLLECTOR 52751 12 417006019 62652417762NDSTCOLLECTOR 68641 12 417006019 627524403CORD378COLLECTOR 32061 12 417006019 62852652239THAVECOLLECTOR 23431 12 417004025 62952752362NDSTCOLLECTOR 60661 12 417006025 63052819362NDSTCOLLECTOR 105921 12 417006014 631529288CORD215COLLECTOR 79951 12 417005015 PalisadesPowerPlantK 69KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 632530290CORD215COLLECTOR 6411 12 411252515 633531201PHEONIXRDMINORARTERIAL 4801 12 413503010 634532534CORD380COLLECTOR 4821 12 411252521 635533532CORD380COLLECTOR 103411 12 417004020 636534286CORD380COLLECTOR 8461 12 417004021 637535218FORESTBEACHRD COLLECTOR 16321 12 415753029 638536244FORESTBEACHRD COLLECTOR 23281 12 415753529 639537517BAKERSTCOLLECTOR 5531 12 417502528 640538423MCKINLEYST COLLECTOR 11701 12 415753523 641539373RYNORDLOCALROADWAY 61681 12 417503028 642540558WMAINSTMINORARTERIAL 3172 12 419003533 643541559WMAINSTMINORARTERIAL 23102 12 417504033 64454216472NDSTCOLLECTOR 19041 12 4170045 7 645543167MONROEBLVD COLLECTOR 13801 12 417004010 646544156NSHOREDRCOLLECTOR 9621 12 411252510 647545474ERIESTLOCALROADWAY 11001 12 413503010 64854614968THSTCOLLECTOR 52521 12 4170060 4 64954654768THSTCOLLECTOR 79101 12 4170060 4 65054754868THSTCOLLECTOR 53651 12 4170060 4 651548549116THAVECOLLECTOR 9911 12 4170040 4 65254855268THSTCOLLECTOR 18491 12 4170040 4 653549550CORD2COLLECTOR 11991 12 4170040 2 654549551BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 11341 12 4170040 4 65555059I 196RAMPFROMBLUESTARHWYFREEWAYRAMP 12111 12 4170040 2 PalisadesPowerPlantK 70KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 656550141CORD2COLLECTOR 6021 12 4170040 2 657550549BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 11991 12 4170040 2 658551549BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 11341 12 4170040 4 659551552BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10091 12 4170040 4 660552551BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 10091 12 4170040 4 661552553BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 15741 12 4170040 4 662553552BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 15741 12 4170040 4 6635538553BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 5921 12 4170040 4 6645548229109THAVECOLLECTOR 18271 12 4157535 9 6655558286CORD380COLLECTOR 7551 12 417004021 666556557REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 8501 12 415753531 6675578557REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 12501 12 411252531 6685588540WMAINSTMINORARTERIAL 9042 12 415753533 669559540WMAINSTMINORARTERIAL 6702 12 417504033 670560367TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 7351 12 413503033 671128129BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 16381 12 4170055 5 672129128BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 16381 12 4170055 5 673129130BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 52741 12 4170045 5 674130129BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 52741 12 4170060 5 675130131BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 13821 12 4170045 3 676141550CORD2COLLECTOR 6021 12 4170040 2 67714558I 196FREEWAY 99321410225070 2 67814559I 196FREEWAY 143221410225070 2 679146147109THAVECOLLECTOR 6011 12 4170040 3 680147148109THAVECOLLECTOR 11801 12 4170040 3 PalisadesPowerPlantK 71KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 68114854I 196ONRAMPFROM109THAVEFREEWAYRAMP 136111410170040 3 682148149109THAVECOLLECTOR 34731 12 4170045 3 683149460109THAVECOLLECTOR 35751 12 4170060 4 68414954668THSTCOLLECTOR 52521 12 4170060 4 685150151BROADWAYSTMINORARTERIAL 20072 12 419004010 686150466PHEONIXRDMINORARTERIAL 10352 12 419004010 687151150BROADWAYSTMINORARTERIAL 20072 12 417504010 688151152SR43MINORARTERIAL 7232 12 419004010 689152151SR43MINORARTERIAL 7232 12 419004010 690152153SR43MINORARTERIAL 18472 12 417004510 691153152SR43MINORARTERIAL 18472 12 419004010 692153154SR43MINORARTERIAL 12771 12 415753510 693154115SR43MINORARTERIAL 9841 12 417503510 694154153SR43MINORARTERIAL 12771 12 417004510 695155150BROADWAYSTMINORARTERIAL 10991 12 417503510 696156157NSHOREDRCOLLECTOR 44211 12 415753510 697156438DYCKMANAVE COLLECTOR 15791 12 415753510 698157121BASELINERD LOCALROADWAY 42841 12 4157535 6 699157158NSHOREDRCOLLECTOR 14091 12 4157535 6 700158468NSHOREDRCOLLECTOR 4851 12 4135030 6 701159469NSHOREDRCOLLECTOR 21171 12 4170040 6 702160161CORD388COLLECTOR 28292 12 419005511 703160439CORD388COLLECTOR 73351 12 417005011 PalisadesPowerPlantK 72KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 70416144I 196ONRAMPFROMCORD388FREEWAYRAMP 14491 12 417004011 705161118CORD388COLLECTOR 23812 12 417504010 706161160CORD388COLLECTOR 28292 12 419005511 707161162CORD388OFFRAMPTOI 196 FREEWAYRAMP 5161 12 411252511 70816243I 196ONRAMPFROMCORD388FREEWAYRAMP 4011 12 411252511 70916346I 196ONRAMPFROMNSHOREDRFREEWAYRAMP 13831 12 4170040 7 710164163NSHOREDRCOLLECTOR 9691 12 4170040 7 711165152LAGRANGEST COLLECTOR 26742 12 419004010 712165154AYLWORTHAVE COLLECTOR 13051 12 413503010 713166165AYLWORTHAVE COLLECTOR 12591 12 417503010 714166473CENTERSTCOLLECTOR 12901 12 413503010 715167166AYLWORTHAVE COLLECTOR 26361 12 413503010 716168115SR43MINORARTERIAL 65221 12 417505012 717168169SR43MINORARTERIAL 74181 12 417005013 718169168SR43MINORARTERIAL 74181 12 417005013 719169170SR43MINORARTERIAL 72181 12 417006013 720170169SR43MINORARTERIAL 72181 12 417006013 721170171SR43MINORARTERIAL 16901 12 417006019 722170429CORD380COLLECTOR 155751 12 417005519 723300301BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 33121121017006023 724301302BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 19971121017006023 725302303BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 20471121017006023 PalisadesPowerPlantK 73KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 726303304BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 24591121017006023 727304305BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 11141121017006023 728305306BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 23761121017006023 729306230CORD372COLLECTOR 3761 12 417005523 730306307SR63COLLECTOR 20961121017005023 731307306SR63COLLECTOR 20921121017005023 732307308SR63COLLECTOR 17291121017005023 733308309SR63COLLECTOR 19041121017005022 734309310SR63COLLECTOR 18611121017005027 735310311SR63COLLECTOR 17131121017005027 736311312SR63COLLECTOR 46901121017005027 737312313SR63COLLECTOR 55031121017006027 738313314SR63COLLECTOR 24521121017005027 739313415COLOMARDCOLLECTOR 78291 12 417004027 740314315SR63COLLECTOR 56641121017005027 741315316SR63COLLECTOR 37791121017005027 742316317SR63COLLECTOR 17171121017005027 743317318SR63COLLECTOR 22261121017005027 744318319SR63COLLECTOR 51021121017005033 745319320SR63COLLECTOR 25362121019006033 7463208320SR63COLLECTOR 32892121019004533 747321299BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 20841121017006023 748343366WMAINSTMINORARTERIAL 8692 12 419006034 749343504WMAINSTMINORARTERIAL 17852 12 419007034 750344345WMAINSTMINORARTERIAL 7322 12 419005533 PalisadesPowerPlantK 74KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 751345541WMAINSTMINORARTERIAL 12062 12 419004033 752346340TERRITORIALAVE COLLECTOR 17371 12 413503033 753346347NCRYSTALAVE COLLECTOR 8761 12 417004034 754347344WMAINSTONRAMPFROMNCRYSTALAVE FREEWAYRAMP 6951 12 417004034 755347366NCRYSTALAVE COLLECTOR 4641 12 411252534 756348343WMAINSTONRAMPFROMSCRYSTALAVE FREEWAYRAMP 10681 12 417004034 757349295CORD673COLLECTOR 9841 12 415753531 758350277REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 41051 12 417502531 759351272REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 22001 12 417005030 760352351REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 7271 12 415753530 761353271REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 28891 12 417502530 762354270REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 86591 12 417005030 763355269REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 40591 12 417005529 764356355ESTJOSEPHST COLLECTOR 21631 12 417004529 765357356ESTJOSEPHST COLLECTOR 11281 12 413503029 766358220WSTJOSEPHST COLLECTOR 13811 12 417503529 767358261REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 9581 12 417004529 768359360WSTJOSEPHST COLLECTOR 28361 12 415753528 769360361REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 15481 12 417004528 770361326REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 30071 12 417006028 771362328REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 15931 12 417006028 7723631REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 18171 12 417004528 773364336REDARROWHWY COLLECTOR 8511 12 415753534 PalisadesPowerPlantK 75KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayName RoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)Shoul derWidth(ft.)SaturationFlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNum ber 774365343WMAINSTFREEWAY 8672 12 422506034 775365348NCRYSTALAVE COLLECTOR 5131 12 411252534 776366344WMAINSTMINORARTERIAL 4772 12 419005534 777366365NCRYSTALAVE COLLECTOR 1681 12 411252534 778367540NORTHFAIRAVE COLLECTOR 6561 12 417503533 779368113BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 6652121017506012 780369136BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 34631 12 4170035 3 781369137BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 11681 12 4112525 2 782370138BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 7031 12 4170055 2 783370139BLUESTARHWYMINORARTERIAL 12471 12 4170055 2 784371181SR43MINORARTERIAL 4601 12 411252520 785371182SR43MINORARTERIAL 6601 12 411252520 786372183SR43MINORARTERIAL 21821 12 415753520 787372184SR43MINORARTERIAL 7181 12 417004520 788373250FRIDAYRDLOCALROADWAY 7791 12 411252528 789374375COLOMARDCOLLECTOR 11731 12 417004028 790375376COLOMARDCOLLECTOR 38011 12 417005028 791376377COLOMARDCOLLECTOR 13961 12 417005528 792377325COLOMARDCOLLECTOR 14321 12 49002028 793378379COLOMARDCOLLECTOR 18881 12 417004028 794379324COLOMARDCOLLECTOR 11071 12 417004028 795380381BLUESTARHWYTRAFFICCIRCLETONSHOREDR COLLECTOR 1851 12 4112525 6 PalisadesPowerPlantK 76KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlledNodeXCoordinateYCoordinate Control GridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber212662653334249Stop159312599402303622Stop1711312609463327450Actuated1211512611368329066Actuated1011812612263335015Actuated1012112613241340856Stop612212613297343436Yield612912616189359061TCPUncontrolled514712622309364116TCPUncontrolled314912626962364089Stop415012609024334993Actuated1015212609521332457Stop1015412610739329823Stop1015612607248336781Stop1016412615952343360Stop716512609434329784TCPActuated1016612608176329822TCPActuated1016812616084324562TCPUncontrolled1316912621191319183TCPUncontrolled1317012626003313803Stop1817612638600308473TCPUncontrolled1917712641638306844Stop1918312652080300976TCPUncontrolled2018412654706299746Stop2018512662180299438Stop2019312642010334749Stop1420112608208334982Pretimed1020212608175334068Stop1020612609395313965TCPUncontrolled1820712609348310767TCPUncontrolled1821012610529300406TCPUncontrolled1821112610455297795TCPUncontrolled1821412610232276779TCPUncontrolled2421512612691271634Stop2421812611413260952Stop2921912610697258972Stop2922012609999256048TCPActuated2922512609137230151Stop3822912658313363432Stop923012581405272456TCPUncontrolled2323412604719271696Stop2423512609980271678Stop24 PalisadesPowerPlantK 77KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinate Control GridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber24412605772258550Stop2924512598911258712Stop2824712597714256124Pretimed2824912597980254907Pretimed2825412597082238634Stop3725712587953233174Stop3725912599997256029TCPUncontrolled2826412652028299671TCPUncontrolled2026512652030302931TCPUncontrolled2026612651880291806TCPUncontrolled2026812651464265897Stop3126912620322259226TCPUncontrolled2927112635620262881Actuated3027712667036266772Actuated3128512662236313261Stop2028812662358323800Stop1530612581031272490Stop2330712579715270891Stop2331312569783256874TCPUncontrolled2732212594836295900TCPUncontrolled1732512588611256294TCPUncontrolled2833712569613234027Stop3434612567041233852Stop3435312632739262667TCPUncontrolled3035812608630255868TCPUncontrolled2936012595061253223TCPUncontrolled2836512566987232345Stop3436612566989232513Stop3436712561699232689Stop3337312598220253511TCPActuated2837512595239256199TCPUncontrolled2838012613422343261Yield638212613438343546Yield638812651035299693Stop2039012651922286507TCPUncontrolled2639112620629281710TCPUncontrolled2439312625611282930Yield2440212637623299993Stop1940412635889276316TCPUncontrolled2540512635819271142TCPUncontrolled2541412661593266845Stop31 PalisadesPowerPlantK 78KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinate Control GridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber41512577609256673TCPUncontrolled2742112583446264235Stop2842312581353268929Stop2342912641577313632Stop1943212622813313996TCPUncontrolled1844812658053339643Yield1545012657975344899Stop946212626799358848TCPUncontrolled847012608183334357Stop1047112608183333774Stop1047212608195332555Stop1047312608182331112Stop1048112636118284179Stop2548412652250323977TCPUncontrolled1548512652087313499TCPUncontrolled2048712652510336377TCPUncontrolled1549112651250241911Stop4049712593172231459Stop3750312577555234395Stop3451712597723256444Pretimed2852412641563299981Stop1954012561689232034Actuated3354912626009382663Stop255212627090384462Stop455912562359232035Actuated331 CoordinatesareintheNorthAmericanDatumof1983MichiganSouthStatePlaneZone APPENDIXJRepresentativeInputstoandOutputsfromtheDYNEVIISystem PalisadesPowerPlantJ 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEMThisappendixpresentsdatainputtoandoutputfromtheDYNEVIISystem.TableJ 1providesthevolumeandqueuesforthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsinthestudyarea.RefertoTableK 2andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachintersection.TableJ 2providessource(vehicleloading)anddestinationinformationforseveralroadwaysegments(links)intheanalysisnetwork.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.TableJ 3providesnetwork-widestatistics(averagetraveltime,averagespeedandnumberofvehicles)foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)foreachscenario.Asexpected,Scenarios8and11,whicharesnowscenarios,exhibittheslowestaveragespeedandlongestaveragetraveltimes.TableJ 4providesstatistics(averagespeedandtraveltime)forthemajorevacuationroutes-Interstate 196,SR 43,SR 63(BlueStarMemorialHighway),andInterstate 94-foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.Thesemajorevacuationroutesdonotexperienceasignificantamountofcongestionex ceptontheiraccessramps.ThemostsignificantslowingoccursonSR 63NB,withtheremainingroutesmaintainingarelativelyconstantspeedthroughoutthetimeperiods.AsdiscussedinSection7.3andshowninFigures7 3through7 7,theEPZisclearofcongestionat2hoursaftertheadvisorytoevacuate.Alsonote,mostofthecongestionhappensoncountyroadsthatareusedtoaccessreceptioncentersandtemporaryhostfacilities.TableJ 5providesthenumberofvehiclesdischargedandthecumulativepercentoftotalvehiclesdischargedforeachlinkexitingtheanalysisnetwork,foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapsh owingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.FigureJ 1throughFigureJ 14plotthetripgenerationtimeversustheETEforeachofthe14Scenariosconsidered.ThedistancebetweenthetripgenerationandETEcurvesisthetraveltime.PlotsoftripgenerationversusETEareindicativeoftheleveloftrafficcongestionduringevacuation.Forlowpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesareclosetogether,indicatingshorttraveltimesandminimaltrafficcongestion.Forhigherpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesarefartherapartindicatinglongertraveltimesandthepresenceoftrafficcongestion.AsseeninFigureJ 1throughFigureJ 14,thecurvesarespatiallyseparatedasaresultofthetrafficcongestionintheEPZ,whichwasdiscussedindetailinSectio n7.3.

PalisadesPowerPlantJ 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersectionsNodeLocationIntersection ControlApproach (UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)118PhoenixSt.&BlueStarMemorialHighway,SouthHavenActuated117789011954014672,6630161290TOTAL4,021271MainSt.&N.CenterSt.,HartfordActuated284736123532,03178TOTAL2,767220MainStreet&St.JosephSt.,WatervlietActuated5122,40203581610TOTAL2,563150BroadwaySt.&PhoenixSt.,SouthHavenActuated155507015157302011,1900TOTAL2,270540N.FairAve&E.MainSt.,BentonHarbor(ShadowRegion)Actuated36721905591,7890TOTAL2,008277N.PawPawSt.&RedArrowHighway,LawrenceActuated2962203501,9120TOTAL1,934559MLKDr.South&E.MainSt.,BentonHarbor(ShadowRegion)Actuated5411,63805601510TOTAL1,789249S.ChurchSt.&WSt.JosephSt.,ColomaPretimed248996332594460TOTAL1,442115SR 43&BlueStarMemorialHighway,SouthHavenActuated11496101542980168670TOTAL1,326247N.PawPawSt.&CenterSt.,ColomaPretimed5171,2311325920TOTAL1,233 PalisadesPowerPlantJ 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInputLinkNumberVehiclesEnteringNetworkonthisLinkDirectionalPreferenceDestination NodesDestinationCapacity116S85403,81080896,75085081,6982316N80604,50085531,6983110E80824,50082861,69881911,69837159SE80896,75080824,50084901,6984300S85403,81080896,75085081,69848010E80824,50081911,69882001,69853213SW85403,81060587E80824,50082001,69882861,6986566NE82001,69870614SE84901,698 PalisadesPowerPlantJ 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)Scenario1234567891011121314Network WideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)1.431.611.761.981.651.231.391.501.301.481.571.421.921.46Network WideAverageSpeed(mph)42.1037.2634.1830.3536.4448.6643.1939.9346.0140.5738.2842.2631.2941.09TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork33,93433,89137,85737,91627,96429,73129,73429,72829,77929,79429,79723,55839,33033,868 PalisadesPowerPlantJ 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)ElapsedTime(hours)1234Route#Length(miles)Speed(mph)Travel Time (min)Speed Travel TimeSpeedTravel TimeSpeed Travel TimeI 94EB22.467.819.871.918.772.718.572.518.5I 94WB22.472.118.672.418.672.318.672.818.4SR 63SB15.454.517.055.016.855.116.755.316.7SR 63NB17.319.752.647.521.949.321.150.720.5SR 43EB17.546.822.447.322.249.621.249.221.4I 196SB34.871.229.370.529.671.429.271.429.2I 196NB34.767.830.770.729.570.729.470.729.4 PalisadesPowerPlantJ 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1EPZExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)1234VehiclesDischargedDuringtheIndicatedTimeIntervalCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedDuringtheIndicatedTimeInterval1061,6823,6273,8943,95116%13%12%12%1492,1236,3587,6057,73220%23%23%23%1632,5026,0827,2997,39523%22%22%22%3383921,3281,5391,5814%5%5%5%3498242,1373,1263,2618%8%9%10%384502352963110%1%1%1%3874311,3151,7541,7824%5%5%5%4693077368168353%3%2%2%4741605626837001%2%2%2%5114568799831,0104%3%3%3%7074029811,0881,1204%4%3%3%721281221511600%0%0%0%7546771,7211,9652,0046%6%6%6%7735541,1381,2491,2635%4%4%4%7752226637547712%2%2%2%

PalisadesPowerPlantJ 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario1)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario2)TripGenerationETE PalisadesPowerPlantJ 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario3)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario4)TripGenerationETE PalisadesPowerPlantJ 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario5)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario6)TripGenerationETE PalisadesPowerPlantJ 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8)0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario7)TripGenerationETE 0%20%

40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Snow (Scenario8)TripGenerationETE PalisadesPowerPlantJ 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario9)TripGenerationETE 0%20%

40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario10)TripGenerationETE PalisadesPowerPlantJ 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11)FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Snow (Scenario11)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario12)TripGenerationETE PalisadesPowerPlantJ 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)FigureJ14.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good,SpecialEvent (Scenario13)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario14)TripGenerationETE APPENDIXLPAABoundaries PalisadesPowerPlantL 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1L. PAABOUNDARIESPAA1County:VanBurenDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:IncludesVanBurenstateparkandwesternpartsofCovertboundedbyM 140totheeast;16 thAvetothenorth;LakeMichigantothewest;and34 thAvetothesouth.PAA2County:VanBurenDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:SouthHavenTownshipboundedbyElkenburgSt.,KalamazooSt.andAylworthAvetothenorth;69 thSt.andSR 43totheeast;16 thAve,M 140and24 thAvetothesouth;andLakeMichigantothewest.PAA3County:VanBurenDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:EasternCovertboundedbyLakeMichigan,M 140and34 thAvetothewest,24 thAvetothenorth,69 thStand70 thSttheeast,andtheBerrien/VanBurenCountylinetothesouth.PAA4County:AlleganandVanBurenDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:TheCityofSouthHavenboundedbyElkenburgSt.,KalamazooSt.,AylworthAve,SR 43,69 thSt.andLakeMichigantothewest;24 thAvetothesouth;CR 681,theVanBuren/AlleganCountyline,63 rdSt.,102 ndAveand66 thSt.totheeast;and107 thAvetothenorth.IncludesallofSouthHavenandWestBangor.PAA5County:BerrienandVanBurenDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundary:PartsofColoma,WatervlietandBangorboundedbytheBerrien/VanBurenCountyLine,M 140and24 thAvetothenorth;CR 681,48 thAveandCR 687totheeast;RedArrowHwy/ColomaRdtothesouth;andLakeMichigantothewest.ExcludesHartford.

APPENDIXMEvacuationSensitivityStudies PalisadesPowerPlantM 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIESThisappendixpresentstheresultsofaseriesofsensitivityanalyses.TheseanalysesaredesignedtoidentifythesensitivityoftheETEtochangesinsomebaseevacuationconditions.M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimesAsensitivitystudywasperformedtodeterminewhetherchangesintheestimatedtripgenerationtimehaveaneffectontheETEfortheentireEPZ.Specifically,ifthetailofthemobilizationdistributionweretruncated(i.e.,ifthosewhorespondedmostslowlytotheAdvisorytoEvacuate,couldbepersuadedtorespondmuchmorerapidly),howwouldtheETEbeaffected?ThecaseconsideredwasScenario1,Region3;asummer,midweek,midday,goodweatherevacuationoftheentireEPZ.TableM 1presentstheresultsofthisstudy.TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudyTripGenerationPeriodEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile2Hours30Minutes2:002:553Hours30Minutes2:003:404Hours30Minutes(Base)2:054:40Theresultsconfirmtheimportanceofaccuratelyestimatingthetripgeneration(mobilization)times.Theevacuationtimeestimates(ETE)forthe100 thpercentilecloselymirrorthevaluesforthetimethelastevacuationtripisgenerated.Incontrast,the90 thpercentileETEisveryinsensitivetotruncatingthetailofthemobilizationtimedistribution.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,trafficcongestionpersistswithintheEPZforabout2hours.Assuch,theETEforthe100 thpercentileisaffectedbythetripgenerationtime,ifthepublicfinishesmobilizingaftercongestionclears.Theresultsindicatethatprogramstoeducatethepublicandencouragethemtowardfasterresponsesforaradiologicalemergency,translatesintoshorterETEatthe100 thpercentile.Theresultsalsojustifytheguidancetoemploythe[stable]90 thpercentileETEforprotectiveactionrecommendation(PAR)decision making PalisadesPowerPlantM 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocateAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesinthepercentageofpeoplewhodecidetorelocatefromtheShadowRegion.ThecaseconsideredwasScenario1,Region3;asummer,midweek,midday,go odweatherevacuationfortheentireEPZ.ThemovementofpeopleintheShadowRegionhasthepotentialtoimpedevehiclesevacuatingfromanEvacuationRegionwithintheEPZ.RefertoSections3.2and7.1foradditionalinformationonpopulationwithintheshadowregion.TableM 2presentstheevacuationtimeestimatesforeachofthecasesconsidered.TheresultsshowthattheETEisinsensitivetoshadowevacuation.TriplingtheshadowpercentagedoesnothaveanimpactonETEatthe90 thor100 thpercentile.Note,thetelephonesurveyresultspresentedinAppendixFindicatethat21%ofhouseholdswouldelecttoevacuateifadvisedtoshelter.Thus,thebaseassumptionof20%noncompliancesuggestedinNUREG/CR 7002isvalid.TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudyPercentShadowEvacuationEvacuatingShadowVehiclesEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile002:004:40152,0262:004:4020(Base)2,7012:054:40608,1032:054:40 PalisadesPowerPlantM 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulationAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesintheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ.AspopulationintheEPZchangesovertime,thetimerequiredtoevacuatethepublicmayincrease,decrease,orremainthesame.SincetheETEisrelatedtothedemandtocapacit yratiopresentwithintheEPZ,changesinpopulationwillcausethedemandsideoftheequationtochange.Thesensitivitystudywasconductedusingthefollowingplanningassumptions:1. ThechangeinpopulationwithintheEPZwastreatedparametrically.Thepercentpopulationchangewasvariedbetween+/-30%.Changesinpopulationwereappliedtopermanentresidentsonly(asperfederalguidance),inboththeEPZareaandtheShadowRegion.2. Thetransportationinfrastructureremainedfixed;thepresenceofnewroadsorhighwaycapacityimprovementswerenotconsidered.3. Thestudywasperformedforthe2 MileRe gion(R01),the5 MileRegion(R02)andtheentireEPZ(R03).4. ThegoodweatherscenariowhichyieldedthehighestETEvalueswasselectedasthecasetobeconsideredinthissensitivitystudy(Scenario1).TableM 3presentstheresultsofthesensitivitystudy.SectionIVofAppendixEto10CFRPart50,andNUREG/CR 7002,Section5.4,requirelicenseestoprovideanupdatedETEanalysistotheNRCwh enapopulationincreasewithintheEPZcausesETEvalues(forthe2 MileRegion,5 MileRegionorentireEPZ)toincreaseby25percentor30mi nutes,whicheverisless.NotethatallofthebaseETEvaluesaregreaterthan2hours;25percentofthebaseETEisalwaysgreaterthan30minutes.Therefore,30minutesisthelesserandisthecriterionforupdating.TheETEvaluesforthe90thpercen tileandthe100thpercentilearerelativelyinsensitivetochangesinpopulationupto30percent.Theexistinghighwaynetworkhassufficientreservecapacitytoaccommodateanyreasonablepopulationincrease.ReducingpopulationhasnoeffectbecausetheETEvaluesreflectaminimumevacuationtimeconsistentwithtripgenerationestimates.NoneoftheETEmeetthecriteriaforupdatingETEbetweendecennialcensuses.

PalisadesPowerPlantM 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChangeResident&20%ShadowPopulationBasePopulationChangeBasePopulationChange10%20%30%10%20%30%35,86439,45043,03746,62335,86432,27828,69125,105ETEfor90 thPercentileRegionBasePopulationChangeBasePopulationChange10%20%30%10%20%30%2MILE2:002:002:002:002:002:002:002:005MILE2:052:052:052:052:052:052:002:00FULLEPZ2:052:052:102:152:052:052:002:00ETEfor100 thPercentileRegionBasePopulationChangeBasePopulationChange10%20%30%10%20%30%2MILE4:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:305MILE4:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35FULLEPZ4:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40 APPENDIXNETECriteriaChecklist PalisadesPowerPlantN 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1N. ETECRITERIACHECKLISTTableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklistNRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments1.0Introductiona. Theemergencyplanningzone(EPZ)andsurroundingareashouldbedescribed.YesSection1b. Amapshouldbeincludedthatidentifiesprimaryfeaturesofthesite,includingmajorroadways,significanttopographicalfeatures,boundariesofcounties,andpopulationcenterswithintheEPZ.YesFigure1 1c. AcomparisonofthecurrentandpreviousETEshouldbeprovidedandincludessimilarinformationasidentifiedinTable1 1,"ETEComparison,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTable1 31.1Approacha. Adiscussionoftheapproachandlevelofdetailobtainedduringthefieldsurveyoftheroadwaynetworkshouldbeprovided.YesSection1.3b. Sourcesofdemographicdataforschools,specialfacilities,largeemployers,andspecialeventsshouldbeidentified.YesSection2.1Section3c. Discussionshouldbepresentedonuseoftrafficcontrolplansintheanalysis.YesSection1.3,Section2.2,Section9,AppendixGd. Trafficsimulationmodelsusedfortheanalysesshouldbeidentifiedbynameandversion.YesSection1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC PalisadesPowerPlantN 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Methodsusedtoaddressdatauncertaintiesshouldbedescribed.YesSection3-avoiddoublecountingSection5,AppendixF-4%samplingerrorat95%confidenceintervalfortelephonesurvey1.2Assumptionsa. TheplanningbasisfortheETEincludestheassumptionthattheevacuationshouldbeorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.YesSection2.3-Assumption1Section5.1b. AssumptionsconsistentwithTable1 2,"GeneralAssumptions,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludethebasistosupporttheiruse.YesSections2.2,2.31.3ScenarioDevelopmenta. ThetenscenariosinTable1 3,EvacuationScenarios,shouldbedevelopedfortheETEanalysis,orareasonshouldbeprovidedforuseofotherscenarios.YesTables2 1,6 21.3.1StagedEvacuationa. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedontheapproachusedindevelopmentofastagedevacuation.YesSections5.4.2,7.21.4EvacuationPlanningAreasa. AmapofEPZwithemergencyresponseplanningareas(ERPAs)shouldbeincluded.YesFigure6 1b. AtableshouldbeprovidedidentifyingtheERPAsconsideredforeachETEcalculationbydownwinddirectionineachsector.YesTable6 1 PalisadesPowerPlantN 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. AtablesimilartoTable1 4,"EvacuationAreasforaStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludesthecompleteevacuationofthe2,5,and10mileareasandforthe2milearea/5milekeyholeevacuations.YesTable7 52.0DemandEstimationa. Demandestimationshouldbedevelopedforthefourpopulationgroups,includingpermanentresidentsoftheEPZ,transients,specialfacilities,andschools.YesPermanentresidents,employees,transients-Section3,AppendixESpecialfacilities,schools-Section8,AppendixE2.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. TheUSCensusshouldbethesourceofthepopulationvalues,oranothercrediblesourceshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.1b. PopulationvaluesshouldbeadjustedasnecessaryforgrowthtoreflectpopulationestimatestotheyearoftheETE.Yes2010usedasthebaseyearforanalysis.Nogrowthofpopulationnecessary.c. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1,"PopulationbySector,"ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforpermanentresidents.YesFigure3 22.1.1PermanentResidentswithVehiclesa. Thepersonspervehiclevalueshouldbebetween1and2orjustificationshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.Yes2.0personspervehicle-Table1 3b. Majoremployersshouldbelisted.YesAppendixE-TableE 32.1.2TransientPopulation PalisadesPowerPlantN 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Alistoffacilitieswhichattracttransientpopulationsshouldbeincluded,andpeakandaverageattendanceforthesefacilitiesshouldbelisted.Thesourceofinformationusedtodevelopattendancevaluesshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4,AppendixEb. Theaveragepopulationduringtheseasonshouldbeused,itemizedandtotaledforeachscenario.YesTables3 4,3 5andAppendixEitemizethetransientpopulationandemployeeestimates.TheseestimatesaremultipliedbythescenariospecificpercentagesprovidedinTable6 3toestimatetransientpopulationbyscenario.c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsassumedtobeatfacilitiesshouldbeestimated.YesSections3.3,3.4d. Thenumberofpeoplepervehicleshouldbeprovided.Numbersmayvarybyscenario,andifso,discussiononwhyvaluesvaryshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4e. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforthetransientpopulation.YesFigure3 6-transientsFigure3 8-employees2.2TransitDependentPermanentResidentsa. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberoftransitdependentresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.1,Table8 1b. Transportationresourcesneededtoevacuatethisgroupshouldbequantified.YesSection8.1,Tables8 5,8 10c. Thecounty/localevacuationplansfortransitdependentresidentsshouldbeusedintheanalysis.YesSections8.1,8.4 PalisadesPowerPlantN 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberofpeoplewithdisabilitiesandthosewithaccessandfunctionalneedswhomayneedassistanceanddonotresideinspecialfacilitiesshouldbeprovided.Datafromlocal/countyregistrationprogramsshouldbeusedintheestimate,butshouldnotbetheonlysetofdata.YesSection8.5e. Capacitiesshouldbeprovidedforalltypesoftransportationresources.Busseatingcapacityof50%shouldbeusedorjustificationshouldbeprovidedforhighervalues.YesSection2.3-Assumption10Sections3.5,8.1,8.2,8.3f. Anestimateofthispopulationshouldbeprovidedandinformationshouldbeprovidedthattheexistingregistrationprogramswereusedindevelopingtheestimate.YesTable8 1-transitdependentsSection8.4-specialneedsg. Asummarytableofthetotalnumberofbuses,ambulances,orothertransportneededtosupportevacuationshouldbeprovidedandthequantificationofresourcesshouldbedetailedenoughtoassuredoublecountinghasnotoccurred.YesSection8.4-page8 5Table8 5,Section8.32.3SpecialFacilityResidentsa. Alistofspecialfacilities,includingthetypeoffacility,location,andaveragepopulationshouldbeprovided.Specialfacilitystaffshouldbeincludedinthetotalspecialfacilitypopulation.YesAppendixE,TableE 2b. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedonhowspecialfacilitydatawasobtained.YesSections8.2,8.3 PalisadesPowerPlantN 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundindividualsshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.5,Table8 4,TableE 2d. Anestimateofthenumberandcapacityofvehiclesneededtosupporttheevacuationofthefacilityshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3Tables8 4,8 5e. Thelogisticsformobilizingspeciallytrainedstaff(e.g.,medicalsupportorsecuritysupportforprisons,jails,andothercorrectionalfacilities)shouldbediscussedwhenappropriate.YesSection3.5-Note:nocorrectionalfacilitiesexistwithintheEPZ.2.4Schoolsa. Alistofschoolsincludingname,location,studentpopulation,andtransportationresourcesrequiredtosupporttheevacuation,shouldbeprovided.Thesourceofthisinformationshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 2,TableE 1Section8.2b. Transportationresourcesforelementaryandmiddleschoolsshouldbebasedon100%oftheschoolcapacity.YesTable8 2,Table8 5c. Theestimateofhighschoolstudentswhowillusetheirpersonalvehicletoevacuateshouldbeprovidedandabasisforthevaluesusedshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.2d. Theneedforreturntripsshouldbeidentifiedifnecessary.YesSection8.4-page8 62.5.1SpecialEventsa. Acompletelistofspecialeventsshouldbeprovidedandincludesinformationonthepopulation,estimatedduration,andseasonoftheevent.YesSection3.7 PalisadesPowerPlantN 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. ThespecialeventthatencompassesthepeaktransientpopulationshouldbeanalyzedintheETE.YesSection3.7c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsattendingtheeventshouldbeestimated.YesSection3.72.5.2ShadowEvacuationa. Ashadowevacuationof20percentshouldbeincludedforareasoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesfromtheNPP.YesSection2.2-Assumption5Figure2 1Section3.2b. Populationestimatesfortheshadowevacuationinthe10to15mileareabeyondtheEPZareprovidedbysector.YesSection3.2Figure3 4Table3 3c. Theloadingoftheshadowevacuationontotheroadwaynetworkshouldbeconsistentwiththetripgenerationtimegeneratedforthepermanentresidentpopulation.YesSection5-Table5 92.5.3BackgroundandPassThroughTraffica. Thevolumeofbackgroundtrafficandpassthroughtrafficisbasedontheaveragedaytimetraffic.Valuesmaybereducedfornighttimescenarios.YesSection3.6Table3 6Section6Table6 3b. PassthroughtrafficisassumedtohavestoppedenteringtheEPZabouttwohoursaftertheinitialnotification.YesSection2.3-Assumption5Section3.6 PalisadesPowerPlantN 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments2.6SummaryofDemandEstimationa. Asummarytableshouldbeprovidedthatidentifiesthetotalpopulationsandtotalvehiclesusedinanalysisforpermanentresidents,transients,transitdependentresidents,specialfacilities,schools,shadowpopulation,andpass throughdemandusedineachscenario.YesTables3 7,3 83.0RoadwayCapacitya. Themethod(s)usedtoassessroadwaycapacityshouldbediscussed.YesSection43.1RoadwayCharacteristicsa. AfieldsurveyofkeyrouteswithintheEPZhasbeenconducted.YesSection1.3b. Informationshouldbeprovideddescribingtheextentofthesurvey,andtypesofinformationgatheredandusedintheanalysis.YesSection1.3c. AtablesimilartothatinAppendixA,"RoadwayCharacteristics,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovided.YesAppendixK,TableK 1d. Calculationsforarepresentativeroadwaysegmentshouldbeprovided.YesSection4e. AlegiblemapoftheroadwaysystemthatidentifiesnodenumbersandsegmentsusedtodeveloptheETEshouldbeprovidedandshouldbesimilartoFigure3 1,"RoadwayNetworkIdentifyingNodesandSegments,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesAppendixK,FiguresK 1throughK 41presenttheentirelink nodeanalysisnetworkatascalesuitabletoidentifyalllinksandnodes3.2CapacityAnalysis PalisadesPowerPlantN 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Theapproachusedtocalculatetheroadwaycapacityforthetransportationnetworkshouldbedescribedindetailandidentifiesfactorsthatshouldbeexpresslyusedinthemodeling.YesSection4b. ThecapacityanalysisidentifieswherefieldinformationshouldbeusedintheETEcalculation.YesSection1.3,Section43.3IntersectionControla. Alistofintersectionsshouldbeprovidedthatincludesthetotalnumberofintersectionsmodeledthatareunsignalized,signalized,ormannedbyresponsepersonnel.YesAppendixK,TableK 2b. Characteristicsforthe10highestvolumeintersectionswithintheEPZareprovidedincludingthelocation,signalcyclelength,andturnlanequeuecapacity.YesTableJ 1c. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonhowsignalcycletimeisusedinthecalculations.YesSection4.1,AppendixC.3.4AdverseWeathera. Theadverseweatherconditionshouldbeidentifiedandtheeffectsofadverseweatheronmobilizationtimeshouldbeconsidered.YesTable2 1,Section2.3-Assumption9Mobilizationtime-Table2 2,Section5.3(page5 10)b. ThespeedandcapacityreductionfactorsidentifiedinTable3 1,"WeatherCapacityFactors,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeusedorabasisshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.YesTable2 2-basedonHCM2010.ThefactorsprovidedinTable3 1ofNUREG/CR 7002arefromHCM2000.

PalisadesPowerPlantN 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Thestudyidentifiesassumptionsforsnowremovalonstreetsanddriveways,whenapplicable.YesSection5.3-page5 10AppendixF-SectionF.3.34.0DevelopmentofEvacuationTimes4.1TripGenerationTimea. Theprocessusedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesshouldbeidentified.YesSection5b. Whentelephonesurveysareused,thescopeofthesurvey,areaofsurvey,numberofparticipants,andstatisticalrelevanceshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixFc. Dataobtainedfromtelephonesurveysshouldbesummarized.YesAppendixFd. Thetripgenerationtimeforeachpopulationgroupshouldbedevelopedfromsitespecificinformation.YesSection5,AppendixF4.1.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. Permanentresidentsareassumedtoevacuatefromtheirhomesbutarenotassumedtobeathomeatalltimes.Tripgenerationtimeincludestheassumptionthatapercentageofresidentswillneedtoreturnhomepriortoevacuating.YesSection5discussestripgenerationforhouseholdswithandwithoutreturningcommuters.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofhouseholdswithreturningcommutersandthepercentageofhouseholdseitherwithoutreturningcommutersorwithnocommuters.AppendixFpresentsthepercenthouseholdswhowillawaitthereturnofcommuters.

PalisadesPowerPlantN 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonthetimeandmethodusedtonotifytransients.Thetripgenerationtimediscussesanydifficultiesnotifyingpersonsinhardtoreachareassuchasonlakesorincampgrounds.YesSection5.4.3c. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsfortransientspotentiallyreturningtohotelspriortoevacuating.YesSection5,Figure5 1d. Effectofpublictransportationresourcesusedduringspecialeventswherealargenumberoftransientsshouldbeexpectedshouldbeconsidered.YesSection3.7e. Thetripgenerationtimeforthetransientpopulationshouldbeintegratedandloadedontothetransportationnetworkwiththegeneralpublic.YesSection5,Table5 94.1.2TransitDependentResidentsa. Ifavailable,existingplansandbusroutesshouldbeusedintheETEanalysis.IfnewplansshouldbedevelopedwiththeETE,theyhavebeenagreeduponbytheresponsibleauthorities.YesSection8.3-page8 4.Preestablishedbusroutesdonotexist.BasicbusroutesweredevelopedfortheETEanalysis-seeFigure8 2,Table8 10.b. Discussionshouldbeincludedonthemeansofevacuatingambulatoryandnonambulatoryresidents.YesSection8.4c. Thenumber,location,andavailabilityofbuses,andotherresourcesneededtosupportthedemandestimationshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4d. Logisticaldetails,suchasthetimetoobtainbuses,briefdrivers,andinitiatethebusrouteshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,Figure8 1 PalisadesPowerPlantN 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Discussionshouldidentifythetimeestimatedfortransitdependentresidentstoprepareandtraveltoabuspickuppoint,anddescribestheexpectedmeansoftraveltothepickuppoint.YesSection8.3f. Thenumberofbusstopsandtimeneededtoloadpassengersshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.3g. Amapofbusroutesshouldbeincluded.YesFigure8 2h. Thetripgenerationtimefornonambulatorypersonsincludesthetimetomobilizeambulancesorspecialvehicles,timetodrivetothehomeofresidents,loadingtime,andtimetodriveoutoftheEPZshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4i. Informationshouldbeprovidedtosupportsanalysisofreturntrips,ifnecessary.YesSections8.3,8.4Figure8 1Tables8 11through8 134.1.3SpecialFacilitiesa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8 4,Tables8 14through8 16b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSections8.4.c. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundsindividualsshouldbeprovided,andthelogisticsofevacuatingtheseresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesTables8 4,8 8d. TimeforloadingofresidentsshouldbeprovidedYesSection8.4 PalisadesPowerPlantN 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsshouldbeneeded.YesSection8.4,Table8 5f. Ifreturntripsshouldbeneeded,thedestinationofvehiclesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4g. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherspecialfacilityresidentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesSection8.4h. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesSection8.4.4.1.4Schoolsa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSchoolbusroutesarepresentedinTables8 7(goodweather),8 8(rain),and8 9(snow).OutboundspeedsaredefinedastheminimumoftheevacuationroutespeedandtheStateschoolbusspeedlimit.InboundspeedsarelimitedtotheStateschoolbusspeedlimit(55mph).c. Timeforloadingofstudentsshouldbeprovided.YesTables8 7through8 9,DiscussioninSection8.4 PalisadesPowerPlantN 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsareneeded.YesSection8.4-page8 9e. Ifreturntripsareneeded,thedestinationofschoolbusesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4-page8 7f. Ifused,receptioncentersshouldbeidentified.Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherstudentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesTable8 3.Studentsareevacuatedtotemporaryhostfacilitieswheretheywillbepickedupbyparentsorguardians.g. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesTables8 7through8 9providetimeneededtoarriveattemporaryhostfacilitieswhichcouldbeusedtocomputeasecondwaveevacuationifnecessary4.2ETEModelinga. GeneralinformationaboutthemodelshouldbeprovidedanddemonstratesitsuseinETEstudies.YesDYNEVII(Ver.4.0.3.0).Section1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC.b. IfatrafficsimulationmodelisnotusedtoconducttheETEcalculation,sufficientdetailshouldbeprovidedtovalidatetheanalyticalapproachused.Allcriteriaelementsshouldhavebeenmet,asappropriate.NoNotapplicableasatrafficsimulationmodelwasused.4.2.1TrafficSimulationModelInput PalisadesPowerPlantN 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Trafficsimulationmodelassumptionsandarepresentativesetofmodelinputsshouldbeprovided.YesAppendicesBandCdescribethesimulationmodelassumptionsandalgorithmsTableJ 2b. Aglossaryoftermsshouldbeprovidedforthekeyperformancemeasuresandparametersusedintheanalysis.YesAppendixATablesC 1,C 24.2.2TrafficSimulationModelOutputa. AdiscussionregardingwhetherthetrafficsimulationmodelusedmustbeinequilibrationpriortocalculatingtheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixBb. Theminimumfollowingmodeloutputsshouldbeprovidedtosupportreview:1. TotalvolumeandpercentbyhourateachEPZexitnode.2. Networkwideaveragetraveltime.3. Longestqueuelengthforthe10intersectionswiththehighesttrafficvolume.4. Totalvehiclesexitingthenetwork.5. AplotthatprovidesboththemobilizationcurveandevacuationcurveidentifyingthecumulativepercentageofevacueeswhohavemobilizedandexitedtheEPZ.6. AveragespeedforeachmajorevacuationroutethatexitstheEPZ.Yes1. TableJ 5.2. TableJ 3.3. TableJ 1.4. TableJ 3.5. FiguresJ 1throughJ 14(oneplotforeachscenarioconsidered

).6. TableJ 4.NetworkwideaveragespeedalsoprovidedinTableJ 3.

PalisadesPowerPlantN 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Colorcodedroadwaymapsshouldbeprovidedforvarioustimes(i.e.,at2,4,6hrs.,etc.)duringafullEPZevacuationscenario,identifyingareaswherelongqueuesexistincludinglevelofservice(LOS)"E"andLOS"F"conditions,iftheyoccur.YesFigures7 3through7 74.3EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheGeneralPublica. TheETEshouldincludethetimetoevacuate90%and100%ofthetotalpermanentresidentandtransientpopulationYesTables7 1,7 2b. TheETEfor100%ofthegeneralpublicshouldincludeallmembersofthegeneralpublic.Anyreductionsortruncateddatashouldbeexplained.YesSection5.4-truncatingsurveydatatoeliminatestatisticaloutliersTable7 2-100 thpercentileETEforgeneralpublicc. Tablesshouldbeprovidedforthe90and100percentETEssimilartoTable4 3,"ETEsforStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTables7 3,7 4d. ETEsshouldbeprovidedforthe100percentevacuationofspecialfacilities,transitdependent,andschoolpopulations.YesSection8.4SchoolsTables8 7through8 9Transit DependentTables8 1through8 13SpecialFacilities-Table8 14through8 165.0OtherConsiderations5.1DevelopmentofTrafficControlPlans PalisadesPowerPlantN 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Informationthatresponsibleauthoritieshaveapprovedthetrafficcontrolplanusedintheanalysisshouldbeprovided.YesSection9,AppendixGb. AdiscussionofadjustmentsoradditionstothetrafficcontrolplanthataffecttheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixG5.2EnhancementsinEvacuationTimea. Theresultsofassessmentsforimprovementofevacuationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection13,AppendixMb. Astatementordiscussionregardingpresentationofenhancementstolocalauthoritiesshouldbeprovided.YesResultsoftheETEstudywereformallypresentedtolocalauthoritiesatthefinalprojectmeeting.Recommendedenhancementswerediscussed.5.3StateandLocalReviewa. Alistofagenciescontactedandtheextentofinteractionwiththeseagenciesshouldbediscussed.YesTable1 1b. InformationshouldbeprovidedonanyunresolvedissuesthatmayaffecttheETE.YesTobedeterminedafterreviewwiththeoffsiteagencies5.4ReviewsandUpdatesa. AdiscussionofwhenanupdatedETEanalysisisrequiredtobeperformedandsubmittedtotheNRC.YesAppendixM,SectionM.35.5ReceptionCentersandCongregateCareCentera. Amapofcongregatecarecentersandreceptioncentersshouldbeprovided.YesFigure10 1 PalisadesPowerPlantN 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Ifreturntripsarerequired,assumptionsusedtoestimatereturntimesforbusesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3discussesamulti waveevacuationprocedure.Figure8 1c. Itshouldbeclearlystatedifitisassumedthatpassengersareleftatthereceptioncenterandaretakenbyseparatebusestothecongregatecarecenter.YesSection2.3-Assumption7hSection10TechnicalReviewer_________________

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