ML13023A031

Kld TR-510, Rev. 1, Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report

ML13023A031
Person / Time
Site:	Pilgrim
Issue date:	12/18/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Entergy Nuclear Operations
Shared Package
ML130230023	List: CNRO-2012-00013, Kld TR-502, Rev. 1, Waterford 3 Steam Electric Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report ML13023A006 ML13023A023 ML13023A024 ML13023A025 ML13023A028 ML13023A031 ML13023A035 ML13023A048 ML13023A070 ML13023A072 ML13023A073
References
CNRO-2012-00013, ENOC-2012-00038 KLD TR-510, Rev 1
Download: ML13023A031 (436)

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December2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-510 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforEntergy,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com PilgrimNuclearPowerStationiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 11.2ThePilgrimNuclearPowerStation............................................................................................1 31.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 51.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy..............................................................................................1 92STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 73.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 103.3.1SeasonalTransientPopulation.........................................................................................3 103.4Employees...............................................................................................................................

.3 153.5Medi calFacilities......................................................................................................................3 193.6TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 193.7SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 193.8SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 214ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtothePNPSStudyArea..........................................................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Freeways............................................................................................................................4 74.3.4Intersections......................................................................................................................4 84.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 85ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background...............................................................................................................................

.5 15.2FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 135.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 145.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 185.4.3TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................5 196DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 17.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................7 17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 1 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 27.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 37.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 47.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 57.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 68TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 48.3MedicalFacilityDemand............................................................................................................8 48.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................8 48.5SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................8 108.6CorrectionalFacilities...............................................................................................................8 129TRAFF ICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUATIONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 111SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS...........................................................................11 112CONFIRMATIONTIME..................................................................................................................12 1A.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1APPENDIXB................................................................................................................................................B 0B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 13C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 13C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 13C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssign ment(DTRAD)...................................................C 16D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.SPECIALFACILITYDATA......................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.3SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F 3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F 3F.3.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F 8F.3.3TimeDistributionResults.....................................................................................................F 10F.4Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 13G.TRAFF ICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G.2AccessControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1HEVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.SUB AREABOUNDARIES....................................................................................................................L 1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentionallyskipped PilgrimNuclearPowerStationivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofFiguresFigure1 1.PNPSLocation.........................................................................................................................1 4Figure1 2.PNPSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork..........................................................................................1 7Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.PNPSEPZ.................................................................................................................................3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 5Figure3 3.PermanentRe sidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 6Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 8Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector.....................................................................................................3 9Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 13Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 14Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 17Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 18Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams............................................................................................................4 9Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 12Figure5 3.ComparisonofDa taDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................5 16Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 20Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion.................................................................................................................................................................5 23Figure6 1.PNPsEPZSub areas................................................................................................................6 4Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................7 14Figure7 2.PNPSShadowRegion............................................................................................................7 15Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................7 16Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 17Figure7 5.CongestionPa tternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 18Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2Hoursand45minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate................7 19Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat3Hours,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................7 20Figure7 8.CongestionPa tternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 21Figure7 9.CongestionPatternsat4Hoursand30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate................7 22Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03....................................................7 23Figure7 11.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03....................................................7 23Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................7 24Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................7 24Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR0 3....................................................7 25Figure7 15.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 16.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 18.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................7 27Figure7 20.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................7 28Figure7 21.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................7 28Figure7 22.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03..................................................7 29Figure7 23.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR03..................................................7 29Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................8 13Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes.............................................................................................8 14 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandSchoolHostFacilities.....................................10 2Figure10 2.BridgewaterandTauntonReceptionCentersandHostFacilities......................................10 3Figure10 3.EvacuationRouteMap........................................................................................................10 4FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 5FigureC 1.Representa tiveAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 7FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 15FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................................E 15FigureE 2.Pre schools/DaycareswithintheEPZ..................................................................................E 16FigureE 3.KingstonPreschools/DaycareswithintheEPZ....................................................................E 17FigureE 4.CarverandPlymouthPreschools/DaycareswithintheEPZ................................................E 18FigureE 5.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 19FigureE 6.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 20FigureE 7.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ........................................................................................E 21FigureE 8.PlymouthRecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ........................................................................E 22FigureE 9.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 23FigureE 10.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..................................................................................E 24FigureE 11.DaycampswithintheEPZ....................................................................................................E 25FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 3FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 4FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F 5FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F 6FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 7FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 8FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F 9FigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets...........................................................................................F 9FigureF 10.Householdse vacuatingwithPetstoCareCenters.............................................................F 10FigureF 11.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..............................................................F 11FigureF 12.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F 11FigureF 13.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 12FigureF 14.TimetoClearDrivewayof6" 8"ofSnow...........................................................................F 13FigureG 1.PNPSTrafficControlPoints...................................................................................................G 2FigureG 2.SchematicoftheTCPatRoute28andTihonetRoad...........................................................G 3FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 4FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 4.RegionR04..............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 5.RegionR05..............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 6.RegionR06..............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 7.RegionR07............................................................................................................................H 10FigureH 8.RegionR08............................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 9.RegionR09............................................................................................................................H 12FigureH 10.RegionR10..........................................................................................................................H 13FigureH 11.RegionR11..........................................................................................................................H 14 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 12.RegionR12..........................................................................................................................H 15FigureH 13.RegionR13..........................................................................................................................H 16FigureH 14.RegionR14..........................................................................................................................H 17FigureH 15.RegionR15..........................................................................................................................H 18FigureH 16.RegionR16..........................................................................................................................H 19FigureH 17.RegionR17..........................................................................................................................H 20FigureH 18.RegionR18..........................................................................................................................H 21FigureH 19.RegionR19..........................................................................................................................H 22FigureH 20.RegionR20..........................................................................................................................H 23FigureH 21.RegionR21..........................................................................................................................H 24FigureH 22.RegionR22..........................................................................................................................H 25FigureH 23.RegionR23..........................................................................................................................H 26FigureH 24.RegionR24..........................................................................................................................H 27FigureH 25.RegionR25..........................................................................................................................H 28FigureH 26.RegionR26..........................................................................................................................H 29FigureH 27.RegionR27..........................................................................................................................H 30FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 8FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 8FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J 9FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J 9FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midw eek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5).................................................................................................................................................................J 10FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)..............J 10FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J 11FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8).............................J 11FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)..............J 12FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)...........................J 12FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11).........................J 13FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12).................................................................................................................................................................J 13FigureJ 13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)............................................................................................................................................J 14FigureJ 14.ETEandTripGeneration:Su mmer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)............................................................................................................................................J 14FigureK 1.Salem HopeCreekNGSLink NodeAnalysisNetwork............................................................K 2FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K 3FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2.....................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Li nk NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K 9FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K 10FigureK 10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K 11FigureK 11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K 12FigureK 12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K 13FigureK 13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K 14 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K 15FigureK 15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K 16FigureK 16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K 17FigureK 17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K 18FigureK 18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K 19FigureK 19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K 20FigureK 20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K 21FigureK 21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K 22 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 1Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 5Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons............................................................................................................1 9Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 7Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySub area.....................................................3 4Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 7Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 12Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 16Table3 6.PNPSEPZExternalTraffic.......................................................................................................3 20Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 22Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 23Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.Ti meDistributionforPopulationtoClear6" 8"ofSnow......................................................5 10Table5 7.MappingDistributionstoEvents............................................................................................5 13Table5 8.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 14Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuation.....................5 21Table5 10.TripGeneratio nHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.......................5 22Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions...........................................................................................6 3Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 5Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 6Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario..................................................................................................6 7Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation...........................7 9Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 10Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 11Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 12Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 13Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................8 15Table8 2.SchoolPopulationBusandVanDemandEstimates..............................................................8 16Table8 3.SchoolHostFacilities..............................................................................................................8 19Table8 4.SpecialFacilityTransitDemand.............................................................................................8 22Table8 5.Su mmaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 23Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 24Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................8 28Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain...............................................................................8 31Table8 9.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow.............................................................................8 34Table8 10.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes........................................................................8 37Table8 11.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................8 38Table8 12.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................8 40Table8 13.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow.......................................................8 42 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationixKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 14.SpecialFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather...............................................8 44Table8 15.SpecialFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain................................................................8 47Table8 16.SpecialFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow..............................................................8 50Table8 17.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates....................................8 53Table8 18.EvacuationTi meEstimatesforCorrectionalFacilities.........................................................8 54Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation..............12 2TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 8TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E 2TableE 2.PreschoolswithintheEPZ.........................................................................................................E 4TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 7TableE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 8TableE 5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E 9TableE 6.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 12TableE 7.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ.....................................................................................E 13TableE 8.Daycampswithinth eEPZ.......................................................................................................E 14TableF 1.PilgrimTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan.................................................................................F 2TableH 1.PercentofSub areaPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion.................................................H 2TableH 2.PercentofSub areaPopulationEvacuatingforEachStagedRegion.....................................H 3TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHi ghestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 3TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J 4TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1).................................................................................................................................................J 5TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J 6TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 23TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled...........................................K 71TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)forthePilgrimNuclearPowerStation(PNPS)locatedinPlymouth,MA.ETEarepartoftherequiredplanningbasisandprovideEntergyandStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveAc tiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMA REP 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. 10CFR50,AppendixE-"EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities"OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinDecember,2011andextendedoveraperiodof12months.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingswithEntergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010.StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GI S)mapsoftheareainthevicinityofthePNPS,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetwork. SynthesizedthisinformationtocreateananalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweenth eEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey. Datacollectionforms(providedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting)werereturnedwithdatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andspecialfacilitiesineachtown.Telephonecallstospecificfacilitiessupplementedthedataprovided.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Thetrafficdemandandtrip generationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto12sub areas.Thesesub areasarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof27EvacuationRegions. Thetime varyingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain,Snow).Onespecialeventscenarioinvolvinga4 thofJulyfireworkshowinPlymouthHarborwasconsidered.OneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonRoute3northboundforthedurationoftheevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5mileswereevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: ArapidlyescalatingaccidentatthePNPStha tquicklyassumesthestatusofGeneralEmergencysuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisvirtuallycoincidentwiththesirenalert,andnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemen ted. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthestatedpercentageofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncentersorhostschoolslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtonotpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolch ildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthecountyevacuationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllike wisebeevacuatedwithpublictransit,asneeded:bus,van,orambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEarecalculatedforthetransit dependentevacuees,forhomeboundspecialneedspopulation,andforthoseevacuatedfromspecialfacilities.ComputationofETEAtotalof378ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe27EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe14 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EvacuationScenarios(27x14=378).SeparateETEarecalculatedfortransit dependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofETEassumesth at20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidetheimpactedregion,willelectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.Theimpedanceth atcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter in place.Once90%ofthe2 mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillev acuate(non compliance)eventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter in place.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Ea chlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwi thfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),thensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofth epopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.Thesestatisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.Theuseofapublicoutreach(information)programtoemphasizetheneedforevacueestominimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(securethehome,as sembleneededclothes, PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1medicines,etc.)shouldalsobeconsidered.TrafficManagementThisstudyreferencesthecomprehensivetrafficmanagementplansprovidedbytheEntergyandstate,andidentifiescriticalintersections.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformofFiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6 1displaysamapofthePNPSEPZshowingthelayoutofthe12sub areasthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3 1presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachsub areabasedonthe2010Censusdata. Table6 1definesea chofthe27EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofsub area. Table6 2liststheEvacuationScenarios. Tables7 1and7 2arecompilationsofETE.The sedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherregionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Tables7 3and7 4presentETEforthe2 mileregionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table8 7presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. Table8 11presentsETEforthetransit dependentpopulationingoodweather. FigureH 8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.Mapsofal lregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor378uniquecases-acombinationof27uniqueEvacuationRegionsand14uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheseETErangefrom1:45(hr:min)to3:30atthe90 thpercentile. InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile.ThisistheresultofthecongestionwithintheEPZ.Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,rel ativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.SeeFigures7 10through7 23. InspectionofTable7 3andTable7 4indicatesthatastagedevacuationprovidesno PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1benefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles(compareRegionsR02andR04throughR08withRegionsR22throughR27,respectively,inTables7 1and7 2).SeeSection7.6foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios5(summer,midweek/weekend,evening)and13(summer,weekend,evening)inTable7 2indicatesthatthespecialeventhasamaterialimpactontheETEatthe90 thpercentileforseveralevacuationregions,withincreasesupto25minutes.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonRoute3fromtheinterchangewithClarkRoad(Exit3)totheendoftheanalysis networkaftertheinterchangewithChurchStreet(Exit12)-hasamaterialimpactonthe90 thand100 thpercentileETE,withincreasesupto40minutesand15minutesrespectively.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ThelastlocationintheEPZtoexhibittrafficcongestionisalongTihonetRdwherethetownofWarehamcausesqueuingwhichextendsintotheEPZ.AllcongestionwithintheEPZclearsby4hoursan d10minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 9. SeparateETEwerecomputedforschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpersons,homeboundspecialneedspersonsandcorrectionalfacilities.TheaveragesinglewaveETEforschoolsandspecialfacilitiesarewithinasimilarrang easthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile,higherfortransit dependentpopulation.SeeSection8. Table8 5indicatesthattherearenotenoughbuses,wheelchairbusesorambulancesavailabletoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZinasinglewave.Thesecond waveETEdoexceedthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile.SeeSections8.4and8.5. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileisinsensitivetoreductionsinthebasetripgenerationtimeof41/2hoursduetothetrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisrelativelyinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion(triplingtheshadowevacuationpercentageonlyincreases90 thand100 thpercentileETEby10and25minutes,respectively).SeeTableM 2. Populationchangesof+/-30%ormoreresultinETEchangeswhichmeetthecriteriaforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.SeeSectionM.3.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.PNPSEPZSub areas PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationSubarea2000Population2010Population12,4843,71026,9758,985310,19410,94641517514,31715,54669,8968,30577,8208,959811,78012,629914,24815,059101,3882,329118,0107,4791200TOTAL87,12793,964EPZPopulationGrowth:7.85%1Source:EvacuationTimeEstimatesforthePerryNuclearPlantPlumeExposurePathwayEmergencyPlanningZone,April2003 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsBasicRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R012 MileRadius2 MileRingxxR025 MileRadius5 MileRingxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRingxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R04NW,NNW,N306°019°xxxR05NNE,NE,ENE020°069°xxxxR06E070°122°xxxR07ESE,SE123°140°xxxxR08SSE,S141°183°xxxN/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW184°305°RefertoRegionR01Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R09NW,NNW,N319°019°xxxxxxR10020°021°xxxxxxxR11NNE,NE022°056°xxxxxxxxR12057°066°xxxxxxxR13067°069°xxxxxxxxR14ENE070°103°xxxxxxxxxR15E,ESE104°109°xxxxxxxxxxR16110°115°xxxxxxxxxR17116°129°xxxxxxxxR18SE130°132°xxxxxxxxxR19133°140°xxxxxxxxR20SSE,S141°175°xxxxxxxR21176°179°xxxxxxN/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW180°318°RefertoRegionR02StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R22None5 MileRingxxxxxR23NW,NNW,N020°069°xxxR24NNE,NE,ENE070°122°xxxxR25E123°140°xxxR26ESE,SE141°183°xxxxR27SSE,S184°305°xxxN/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW2 MileRingRefertoRegionR01KeyShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSubarea(s)Shelter in Subarea(s)Evacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodPlymouth4 thofJulyFireworks14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonRt.3NB1Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadway ImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5 MileRegion,andEPZR012:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R022:102:152:102:102:102:152:152:352:102:102:302:102:202:45R032:553:052:553:052:402:453:003:302:402:553:202:403:003:202 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:102:152:102:102:152:102:152:302:102:102:252:152:152:30R052:102:152:102:102:102:152:152:352:102:102:302:102:202:45R062:052:052:002:002:002:052:102:202:002:052:152:002:202:45R072:052:052:002:002:002:052:102:202:002:052:152:002:202:45R082:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:105 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR092:452:502:402:502:452:402:503:202:352:503:152:452:453:10R102:402:502:302:502:402:402:453:202:302:403:152:352:453:10R112:402:552:402:552:402:402:503:152:352:453:102:352:503:10R122:252:302:152:252:152:202:252:552:102:202:452:152:352:50R132:352:402:302:402:202:302:403:102:202:303:002:202:452:40R142:302:452:252:352:202:302:403:152:202:302:552:202:452:55R152:402:502:352:452:252:352:453:202:252:353:052:252:503:10R162:252:352:252:352:202:252:353:052:202:302:552:202:353:00R172:252:402:302:352:202:252:353:052:202:302:552:202:353:05R182:302:352:252:352:202:252:353:052:252:302:552:202:353:00R192:202:252:202:252:152:252:253:002:152:252:502:152:253:00R202:152:202:102:152:152:152:202:452:102:152:352:152:152:45R212:102:152:102:102:102:152:152:402:102:102:302:102:202:45StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR222:452:502:402:452:502:452:503:502:452:453:502:502:453:10R232:402:452:402:452:552:452:503:502:402:453:452:552:553:00R242:452:502:402:452:502:452:503:502:452:453:502:502:453:10R252:252:302:252:252:302:302:303:252:252:253:252:302:303:00R262:252:302:252:252:302:302:303:252:252:253:252:302:303:00R272:152:151:551:552:002:152:153:052:002:002:552:001:552:15 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadway ImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5 MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:454:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:502 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:355 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR094:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R104:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R114:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R124:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R134:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R144:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R154:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:50R164:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:55R174:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:55R184:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:55R194:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R204:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R214:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR224:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R234:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R244:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R254:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R264:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R274:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadway ImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR012:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R022:052:051:502:001:502:102:102:551:502:052:401:552:052:052 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:102:101:552:101:552:102:102:552:002:002:451:551:552:10R052:052:051:502:001:552:102:102:551:502:002:401:552:052:05R062:002:051:401:401:452:102:102:551:501:502:401:502:052:00R072:002:051:401:401:452:102:102:551:501:502:401:502:052:00R082:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR222:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R232:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R242:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R252:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R262:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R272:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadway ImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:352 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR224:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R234:304:354:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R244:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R254:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R264:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R274:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)AfterSchoolClubAlden90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35AldenSchool90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35BayFarmMontessoriAcademy90157.140.0112:0017.7272:25BerrybrookSchool90157.140.0112:0017.7272:25BlueRiverMontesorriSchool90150.727.021:5020.7322:20BreakfastClubChandler90155.717.1212:1017.7272:35BrightIdeasPreschool901512.519.5392:2528.7443:10CaptPalPreSchool90152.14.2302:1516.2252:40CarverElementarySchool90153.25.1382:2516.2252:50CarverHighSchool90154.87.3402:2516.2252:50CarverMiddleSchool90154.87.3402:2516.2252:50CedarhillRetreatConferenceCenterDaycare90157.140.0112:0017.7272:25ChandlerElementarySchool90155.717.1212:1017.7272:35Children'sCreativeLearningCenter90158.69.8532:4016.2253:05ColdSpringElementarySchool90158.810.0532:4016.2253:05CranberryCrossingDayCare90152.14.2302:1516.2252:40CrayonCollegeAtPlymouth90157.28.2532:4016.2253:05CrayonCollegeInc.90155.340.081:5510.6162:10DiscoveryCornerDaycare90153.612.0192:0519.3292:35DuxburyBayMaritimeSchool90156.64.8833:1017.7273:35DuxburyHighSchool90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35DuxburyMiddleSchool90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35ElementsMontessoriSchool90155.717.1212:1017.7272:35ErwinK.WashburnPrimarySchool90153.25.1382:2516.2252:50FederalFurnaceSchool90155.912.3292:1522.1342:50GardenofKnowledge901512.713.1592:4518.5283:15GoodShepherdChristianAcademy90157.240.0112:0017.7272:25GovernorEdwardWinslowSchool90150.240.011:504.371:55 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)GrowthUnlimitedPreschool90153.440.061:5510.6162:10HedgeElementarySchool90157.58.9512:4016.2253:05Hop,Skip&JumpPreschool90158.510.0522:4017.2263:05IndianBrookElementarySchool901515.916.4592:4528.6433:30JuniorClubChandler90155.717.1212:1017.7272:35KidsCountDaySchool90150.62.2182:0516.2252:30KidstopEarlyChildhoodCenter90152.14.2302:1516.2252:40KinderKollege901519.640.0302:1530.6463:05KinderCarePilgrimHill90156.79.8412:3016.2252:55KinderCareRichard'sRoad90157.08.2522:4016.2253:05KindergartenExtChandler901517.123.6442:3017.7273:00KingstonElementarySchool90154.440.071:5510.6162:10KingstonIntermediateSchool90154.440.071:5510.6162:10LeapingFrogsPreschool901519.540.0302:1530.6463:05LearningSafariDayCare&Preschool901534.619.21083:3550.6764:50LittlePeoplesCountryDay901534.240.0522:4010.6162:55MagicDragonChildrensCenter901517.123.6442:3017.7273:00ManometElementarySchool901518.212.9853:1031.5484:00MethodistNurserySchool90156.79.8422:3016.2252:55MissJoAnne'sBrightBegnnngs90156.89.8422:3016.2252:55MountPleasantSchool901511.411.7592:4516.2253:10NathanielMortonElementarySchool90156.89.2452:3014.2222:55NewTestamentChristianSchool901510.434.4192:0530.6462:50OldColonyYMCA90153.25.1382:2516.2252:50PiedPiperPreschool90153.616.0142:0019.3292:30PilgrimAcademy90154.18.7292:1522.4342:50PilgrimAreaCollab.(Alden)90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35PilgrimAreaCollab.(Chandler)901517.123.6442:3017.7273:00PilgrimAreaCollab.(HighSchool)90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)PilgrimAreaCollab.(Middle)90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35PilgrimAreaCollaborative90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35PilgrimChildCare&Preschool90156.64.8833:1017.7273:35PlymouthCommunityIntermediateSchool901510.911.4582:4514.8233:10PlymouthNorthHighSchool901510.611.5562:4516.2253:10PlymouthSouthHighSchool901511.330.9222:1019.9302:40PlymouthSouthMiddleSchool901511.330.9222:1019.9302:40PondsChlidcareCenter901511.317.8392:2519.9302:55RisingTideCharterPublicSchool90157.08.2522:4016.2253:05Room2GrowNurserySchool90159.110.3532:4016.2253:05SacredHeartEarlyChildhood90154.836.581:5516.2252:20SacredHeartElementarySchool90154.836.581:5516.2252:20SacredHeartHighSchool90154.836.581:5516.2252:20SilverLakeRegionalHighSchool90151.135.021:5013.0202:10SilverLakeRegionalMiddleSchool90151.135.021:5013.0202:10SouthElementarySchool90153.036.451:5028.1432:35SouthShoreConsPreschool90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35SouthShoreEarlyEducation90153.540.061:5510.6162:10SmallScholarsPreschool90151.49.0101:553.562:05TinyTownInc.901515.716.4582:4530.6463:30WestElementarySchool90155.38.5382:2516.2252:50WoodedAcresChildCare90154.440.071:5510.6162:10WoodsideSchoolandCommunityResourceCenter90155.912.3292:1522.1342:50MaximumforEPZ:3:35Maximum:4:50AverageforEPZ:2:25Average:2:55 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)119025.637.241302:4527.34151079305:302,311025.640.038303:0027.34151079305:4521,29025.313.4113303:5527.34151079306:403,410025.314.5105303:5527.34151079306:405,6,711025.315.797304:0027.34151079306:4531,2,39022.016.879303:2020.13051063305:404,5,610022.018.073303:2520.13051063305:457,8,911022.019.169303:3020.13051063305:5041907.14.987303:3017.72751037305:2051,2,39025.215.1100303:4029.74551082306:354,5,69525.215.598303:4529.74551082306:357,8,910025.215.995303:5029.74551082306:4010,11,1211025.217.885303:4529.74551082306:4061,2,39021.513.695303:3514.82251054305:404,5,611021.515.683303:4514.82251054305:4571,2908.99.357303:0014.42251035304:403,41008.99.258303:1014.42251035304:505,6,71108.99.854303:1514.42251035305:0081,29022.340.033302:3513.72151054304:353,49522.340.033302:4013.72151054304:405,6,710022.340.033302:4513.72151054304:458,9,1011022.340.033302:5513.72151054304:5591,2,39044.339.467303:1017.72751093305:554,5,69544.339.467303:1517.72751093306:00 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)7,8,910044.339.467303:2017.72751093306:0510,11,1211044.339.467303:3017.72751093306:15101907.135.912302:1523.83651047304:2021107.136.612302:3523.83651047304:40111,29035.516.8127304:1014.42251075306:303,411035.519.3111304:1514.42251075306:35MaximumETE:4:15MaximumETE:6:45AverageETE:3:25AverageETE:5:45 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationES 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)forthePilgrimNuclearPowerStation(PNPS),locatedinPlymouth,MA.ETEprovideStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionEntergyMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagenciesTownEmergencyManagementOfficesObtainemergencyplansandspecialfacilitydataStateEmergencyManagementOfficeObtainemergencyandtrafficmanagementplans1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromEntergy.b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromtownemergencymanagementagenciesandpolicedepartmentsandEntergytoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailabl e.c. Conductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatraffic PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andShadowRegion.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromthe2010census,CarverEMA,DuxburyEMD,KingstonEM,MarshfieldEMA,andPlymouthEMA.e. ConductedarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.f. Conductedadatacollectionefforttoidentifyanddescribeschools,specialfacilities,majoremplo yers,transportationproviders,andotherimportantinformation.2. EstimateddistributionsofTripGenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelephonesurvey.3. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.The sescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.4. Reviewedtheexistingtrafficmanagementplantobeimplementedbylocalandstatepoliceintheeventofanincidentattheplant.Trafficcontrolisappliedatspecif iedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. Usedexistingsub areastodefineEvacuationRegions.TheEPZispartitionedinto12sub areasalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguoussub areasforwhichETEarecalculated.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradi alextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsat"SpecialFacilities"andfortransit dependentpersonsatho me.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystem.a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,Entergyandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapa cityManual(HCM 1)tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelink noderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.1HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1e. Specifiedselectedcandidatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationofthePilgrimNuclearPowerStation.8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltodetermineoptimalevacuationroutingandcomputeETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,medica lfacilities,etc.),forthetransit dependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.1.2 ThePilgrimNuclearPowerStationThePNPSislocatedalongtheshoresoftheAtlanticOceaninPilgrim,MA.Thesiteisapproximately40milessoutheastofBoston,MAand45mileeastofProvidence,RI.Th eEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)consistsofpartsofCarver,Duxbury,Kingston,MarshfieldandPlymouthtownshipsinMassachusetts.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingthePNPS.Thismapidentifiesthecommunitiesintheareaandthemajorroads.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.PNPSLocation PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewaysections,avalueof2250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereob served,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpre timed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakentogatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateel ementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.PNPSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DT A),modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbased,anddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuati onTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationofthePNPS.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthataredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthese PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1countermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththe2004study.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: Vehicleoccupancyandtrip generatio nrateshavechanged Voluntaryandshadowevacuationsareconsideredatdifferentpercentages. Thehighwayrepresentationisfarmoredetailed. Agreatereffortwastakentoensurenodoublecountingofvehicles Thesimulationmodelincludesactuatedsignal,trafficcontrolpointsandmorerealisticdynamicroutingTable1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasis2000USCensusDataestimatedfor2005;Population=92,617ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused.Population=93,946ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancy1.27evacuatingvehiclesperhousehold1.37evacuatingvehicles/householdbasedonnewtelephonesurvey1.89personspervehicleEmployeePopulationGrowthinstateemploymentbetween1990and2000usedtoextrapolateemploymentfor2005.Employmentjourneytoworkdata(State2001datafiles)identifiedtheproportionofemployeeswhocommuteintotheEPZrelativetothetotalnumberofemployees.Theseproportionswereappliedonatown by townbasistototalemploymentfor2005.Inaddition,datasurveysweresenttomajoremployers.Employees=11,299Vehicleoccupancy=1.11EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZ,supplementedbyobservationsofcommercialpropertyinEPZfromaerialphotography.1.05employeespervehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults.Employees=2,235Vehicleoccu pancy=1.05 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTransitDependentPopulationCensusdatausedtoprovideanestimateofthenumberofpeoplewithoutaccesstopersonaltransportation,2,478totaltransitdependents.EstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Atotalof2,167peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring73busestoevacuate.Anadditional296homeboundspecialneedspersonsneededspecialtransportationtoevacuate(228requiredabus,59requiredawheelchair accessiblevehicle,and9requiredanambulance).TransientPopulationBeachoverheadphotostakenaswellasbeachdatasurveys,hotels,motels,camps,campsitesandmarinascontacted,daytrippersestimatedbytown.Transients=42,215Transientdataprovidedbylocalagencies.Transients=26,606SpecialFacilitiesPopulationSpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Numbernotprovided.SpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachtownwithintheEPZ.MedicalFacilitycensus=2,018BusesRequired=43WheelchairBusRequired=42AmbulancesRequired=141CorrectionalFacilityCensus=1,820BusesRequ ired=37SchoolPopulationSchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=19,297Vehiclesoriginatingatschools=420busesSchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachtownwithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=21,608Vehiclesoriginatingatschools=410buses,35vansVoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuated50percentofpopulationwithinthecircularportionoftheregion;35percent,inannularringbetweenthecircleandtheEPZboundary.20percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyShadowEvacuationMovementoftrafficfromCapeCodduringanemergencyatPNPSisexplicitlyconsidered.TrafficcontrolisdesignedtoroutetrafficleavingCapeCodfromtheSagamoreBridgetotheBourneBridge.Thiseliminatesanyshadowevacuationeffect.20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFi gure7 2)NetworkSize593links;375nodes1,120links;746nodesRoadwayGeometricDataAdditionalfieldsurveyscarriedoutinareaswhereroadwaysystemhaschangedsincepreviousrevision.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2000HCM.FieldsurveysconductedinDecember2011.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter/HostSchool.DirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter/HostSchool.Ridesharing50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.TripGenerationforEvacuationBasedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities.Distributionsobtainedfor:notificationtime,timetotravelfromhometowork,timetopreparehomeandsnowclearancetime.Basedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and270minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and210minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and120minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherNormal,Rain,orSnow.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby20%intheeventofrainand30%forsnow.Normal,Rain,orSnow.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forsnow.ModelingIDYNEVSystemDYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.5.0SpecialEventsNoneconsideredPlymouth4 thofJulyFireworksSpecialEventPopulation=10,417additionaltransientsEvacuationCases35Regionsand12Scenariosproducing420uniquecases.27Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and14Scenariosproducing378uniquecases.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation1 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyEvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingReportedfor50,90,95,and100percentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegion.ETEreportedfor90 thand100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZ,90 thpercentileWinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:3:55SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:4:30WinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather:2:45 SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather:2:55 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.2.1 DataEstimates1. PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebasedupondataprovidedbylocalagencies.3. Populationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromtownemergencymanagementagenciesandfromphonecallstospecificfacilities.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCapacityManual2010.5. PopulationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanalysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. Therelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromthetelephonesurvey.Averagevaluesof2.56personsperhouseholdand1.37evacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandemployeesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.05employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. Parks:Vehicleoccupancyvariesbasedupondatagatheredfromlocaltransientfacilities.c. SpecialEvents:AssumedtransientsattendingthePlymouth4 thofJulyFireworkstravelasfamilies/householdsinasinglevehicle,andusedtheaveragehouseholdsizeof2.56personstoestimatethenumberofvehicles.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofsub areastha tisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002.3. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.4. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyofthesub areasincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.5. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).6. Atotalof14"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherco nditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareoutlinedinTable2 1.7. Scenario14considerstheclosureofasinglelanenorthboundonRoute3fromtheinterchangewithClarkRoad(Exit3)totheendoftheanalysis networkaftertheinterchang ewithChurchStreet(Exit12).8. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 1).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.TheDYNEVIISystemisusedtocomputeETEinthisstudy.1Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodPlymouth4 thofJulyFireworks14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonRt.3NB2Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology PilgrimNuclearPowerStation2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccidentthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. Itisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofsub areasformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 65%percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhav eatleast1commuter;38%percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore25percent(65%x38%=25%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacuationtrip.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderationof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.5. AccessControlPoints(ACP)willbestaffedwithinapproximately120minutesfollowingthesirennotifications,todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofACPlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis120minutetimeperiod.6. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningattheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytrav elerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17. Buseswillbeusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedhostfacility.b. Itisassumedparentswillpickupchildrenatdaycarecenterspriortoevacuation.c. Buses,wheelchairvansandambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoReceptionCenters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolisinsession,aregivenpriorityinassignin gtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredround trips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.8. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthegeneralpopulationtoreceptioncent ersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillride sharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 3 ,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.9. Twotypesofadverseweatherscenariosareconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios;snowoccursinwinterscenariosonly.Itisassumedthattherainorsnowbeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepresentintheEPZisassumed.Itisassumedthatroadsarepassableandthattheappropriateagenciesareplowingtheroadsastheywouldnormallywhensnowing.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 4;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.

3InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswithotherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).4Agarwal,M.et.Al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation2 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport70studentsperbusforelementaryschoolsand50studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedondiscussionswithtownemergencymanagementagencies.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30peopleperbus.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationRain90%90%NoEffectSnow80%80%Cleardrivewaybeforeleavinghome(SeeFigureF 14)*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsofthePNPSEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythreedistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetobusinesseswithintheEPZonadailybasis.Estimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachsub areaandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationrose).ThePNPSEPZissubdividedinto12sub ar eas.TheEPZisshowninFigure3 1.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.56persons/household-SeeFigureF 1)andthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.37vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 8)wereadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.Theestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbythesub areaandEPZboundaries.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatewhatthepopulationiswithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacrossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ,bysub areabasedonthi smethodology.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaveragehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable3 2.Figure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromtheplant.This"rose"wasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbeargue dthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductioncanbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforatwoweekperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasi s,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.PNPSEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationSubarea2000Population2010Population12,4843,71026,9758,985310,19410,94641517514,31715,54669,8968,30577,8208,959811,78012,629914,24815,059101,3882,329118,0107,4791200TOTAL87,12793,964EPZPopulationGrowth:7.85%Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySub areaSubarea2010Population2010ResidentVehicles13,7101,98528,9854,761310,9465,07741710515,5468,20768,3054,44278,9594,798812,6296,758915,0597,990102,3291,248117,4794,0091200TOTAL93,96449,285 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromthePNPS(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuatingvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthatfortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesN00NNE00NE00ENE00E00ESE00SE00SSE6,7563,616S9,4694,509SSW12,3636,626SW3,9682,128WSW4,9282,641W4,7412,538WNW12,6396,761NW10,1585,440NNW14,2557,633TOTAL79,27741,892 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.Dataforthesefacilitieswasprovidedbylocalagen cies.ThePNPSEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiesthatattracttransients,including: Beaches-5,840transientsand2,281vehicles Campgrounds-6,288transientsand2,356vehicles DayCamps-799transientsin32vehicles(1bus=2vehicles) GolfCourses-1,761transientsand689vehicles HistoricSites-1,643transientsand639vehicles LodgingFacilities-1,234transientsand780vehicles Marinas-1,292transientsand505vehicl es Parks-1,607transientsand629vehicles Retail-281transientsand281transientvehiclesAppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE 5presentsthenumberoftransien tsvisitingrecreationalareas,whileTableE 6presentsthenumberoftransientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table3 4presentstransientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbysub area.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddistancefromtheplant.3.3.1 Seas onalTransientPopulationThesecondarycategoryoftransientpopulationisseasonalresidents.Thesepeoplewillentertheareaduringthesummermonthsandmaystayconsiderablylonger(severalweeksortheentireseason)thantheaveragetransientstayingatalodgingfacility.Theseasonalpopulationuseotherlodgingfacilitiessuchascondos,beachhousesandsummerre ntalsthatotherwisewouldnotbecapturedwiththeyear roundtypicallodgingpopulation.Themethodologybehindcalculatingtheseasonalpopulationinvolvesusing2010CensusBlockdata.EachCensusblockincludesinformationregardingthenumberofvacantandoccupiedhouseholds.UsingtheCensusdata,anaveragevacanthouseholdpercentageof24%wascalculatedfortheentirePNPPEPZ.Itisassumedthatseasonalresidentswillberentinghomesneartheshoreline.UsingonlythoseCensusblocksthatarewithinhalfamileofthesewaterways,thenumberofseasonalhomeswascalculatedbydeterminingthepercentageofvacanthouseholdsandsubtractingouttheaveragevacanthouseholdpercentages(24%)withintheEPZ.Anaveragehouseholdsizeof2.56personsperhouseholdisusedtodeterminetheseasonaltransientpopulation,and1.37evacuatingvehiclespe rseasonalhouseholdisusedtodeterminethenumberofseasonaltransientvehicles.Thesenumbersareadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults(seeAppendixF).

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Basedonthisanalysis,itisestimatedthatthereisanadditionalseasonalpopulationof5,861transientsand3,108transientvehicleswithinthePNPPEPZ.ThesenumbersareincludedwiththetransientpopulationinTable3 4aswellasinFigure3 6andFigure3 7.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesSubareaTransientsTransientVehiclesSeasonalResidentsSeasonalResidentVehiclesTotalTransientsTotalTransientVehicles1108501,8409831,9481,03321,5316171,3056892,8361,30633,3111,400145753,4561,47540051827751827753,0791,1267533933,8321,51962,7371,070002,7371,07071,572839001,57283982921030029210396,1022,2243061626,4082,386101,2985079945292,2921,036117152560071525612000000TOTAL20,7458,1925,8613,10826,60611,300 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.4 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.DataprovidedbythetownswereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZforthoseemployerswhodidnotprovidedata.InTableE 3,theEmployees(MaxShift)ismultipliedbythepercentNon EPZfactortodeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.05employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(SeeFigureF 7)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajorem ployers.Table3 5presentsnon EPZresidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbysub area.InadditiontothefacilitieslistedinTableE 3,employersfromschools(listedinTableE 1)arealsoincluded.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesSubareaEmployeesEmployeeVehicles13243092186178337035240058480659567651620820719892442321029281181771200TOTAL2,2352,130 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 MedicalFacilitiesDatawereprovidedbythetownsforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.TableE 2inAppendixEsummarizesthedatagathered.Section8detailstheevacuationofmedicalfacilitiesandtheirpatients.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesthatneedtobeprovideddependonthepatients'stateofhealth.Itisestimatedthatbusescantransportupto30people;wheelchairvans,upto4people;wheelchairbusesupto15people;andambulances,upto2people.3.6 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(external externaltrips)atthetimeofanaccident.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.ThesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ-Route3,Route25andI 195.ItisassumedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoentertheEPZduringthefirst120minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.TheAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAAD Tonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby2hours(accesscontrolpoints-ACP-areassumedtobeactivatedat120minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindi cated,thereare22,260vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternal externaltripspriortotheactivationoftheACPandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and12)asdiscussedinSection6.3.7 SpecialEventThespecialevent(Scen ario13)consideredfortheETEstudyoccursatnightonFourthofJulyweekendinPlymouth.Thereisanupper boundestimateof80,000spectatorsattending,where33%areconsideredtransients,resultingin26,666transients.Itisassumedthatfamiliestraveltotheeventasahouseholdunitinasinglevehicle;ther efore,theaveragehouseholdsizeof2.56isusedasthevehicleoccupancyresultinginanadditional10,417vehicles.Thespecialeventvehicletripsaregeneratedutilizingthesamemobilizationdistributionsfortransients.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.PNPSEPZExternalTrafficUpstreamNodeDownstreamNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2DFactor 2HourlyVolumeExternal Traffic8001425Route3NB49,0000.1070.52,6225,244804646Route3SB66,9390.0910.53,0466,092806262Route25NB36,4000.1070.51,9473,894808181Route25SB36,4000.1070.51,9473,894808989I 195NB29,3000.1070.51,5683,1368001425Route3NB49,0000.1070.52,6225,244TOTAL: 22,2601 HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20112 HCM2010 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.8 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandisprovidedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.Thissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissection.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof166, 273peopleand94,739vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandSubareaResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotal13,710861,9483240469006,53728,9852072,8361862103,0960015,520310,9462523,4563702,7453,3950021,140417051800000535515,5463593,832842419850021,04768,3051922,7375905630011,85678,9592071,5726512061,4340013,029812,6292912922072414,5460018,206915,0593476,4082441954,5380026,791102,329542,292290450005,154117,4791727158102,1320010,60112000000000Shadow00000015,855015,855Total93,9642,16726,6062,2353,83821,60815,8550166,271NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.NOTE:SpecialFacilitiesincludebothmedicalfacilitiesandcorrectionalfacilities.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation3 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandSubareaResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotal11,98561,033309020003,35324,761141,30617832116006,40735,077181,475352207137007,26641022770000028958,207241,519801632009,87864,442121,07056028005,60874,798148396204354006,36886,7582010319846180007,30597,990242,386232411880010,861101,24841,03628018002,334114,009825677082004,43412000000000Shadow0000008,37822,26030,638Total49,28514611,3002,1303858558,37822,26094,739NOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,snow,fog,windspeed,ice)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentand20percentforrainandsnow,respectively.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacit ymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeinters ectionswhereflowcanbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsortur nbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobecomethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theex istingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedinthetownemergencyplansareextensiveandwereadoptedwithoutchange.Theperlanecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutes PilgrimNuclearPowerStation4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1movement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecutingmovement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycl e;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:

2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexit yofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity PilgrimNuclearPowerStation4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtothePNPSStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade) FreewaysEachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15TwolaneroadscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"Clas sI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A PilgrimNuclearPowerStation4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 FreewaysRef:HCMChapters10,11,12,13Chapter10oftheHCM2010describesaprocedureforintegratingtheresultsobtainedinChapters11,12and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewa ycomponents.Chapter10alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomaticallyperformsthisintegrationprocess.Chapter11oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSfor"BasicFreewaySegments".Exhibit11 17oftheHCM2010presentscapacit yvs.freespeedestimates,whichareprovidedbelow.FreeSpeed(mph):55606570+Per LaneCapacity(pc/h):2250230023502400Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,free speedsandcapacitybasedonfieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtime varyingspeedsbasedondemand:capacityrelationships.Aconservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof2250pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyforfreeways,asshowninAppendixK.Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapa city,speed,densityandLOSforfreewayweavingsections.Thesimulationmodelcontainslogicthatrelatesspeedtodemandvolume:capacityratio.ThevalueofcapacityobtainedfromthecomputationalproceduresdetailedinChapter12dependsonthe"Type"andgeometricsoftheweavingsegmentan donthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).Chapter13oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacitiesoframpsandof"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofarampfreewayjunction:Thecapacityofthefreewayimmediatelydownstreamofanon ramporimmediatelyupstreamofanoff ramp;thecapacityoftheramproadway;andthemaximumflowrateenteringtherampinfluencearea.Inmostcases,thefreewaycapacityisthecontrollingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit13 8oftheHCM2010,anddependonthenumberoffreewaylanesandonthefreewayfreespeed.RampcapacityispresentedinExhibit13 10andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficinaccordwiththeproceduresinCh apter13oftheHCM2010.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemandrelativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly).

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3.4 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Whereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersect ionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuat edsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contra flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChap ter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"ThesystemunderstudyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.Itisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicat ethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantof PilgrimNuclearPowerStation4 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink. Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREGCR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundIngeneral,anaccidentatanuclearpowerplantischaracterizedbythefollowingEmergencyClassificationLevels(seeAppendix1ofNUREG0654fordetails):1. UnusualEvent2. Alert3. SiteAreaEmergency4. GeneralEmergencyAteachlevel,theFederalguidelinesspecifyasetofActionstobeundertakenbyth eLicensee,andbyStateandLocaloffsiteauthorities.AsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingaccidentwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterthesirennotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Itislikelythatalongertimewillel apsebetweenthevariousclassesofanemergency.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthiscase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhenth eAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenalert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthan PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately185squaremilesandisengagedinawidevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromonei ndividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevacuationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertr avelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivingnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbyteleph one,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.Itisimportanttonotethattheshapeanddurationoftheevacuationtripmobilizationdistributionisimportantatsiteswheretrafficcongestionisnotexpectedtocausetheevacuationtimeestimatetoextendintimewellbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Theremainingdiscussionwillfocusonth eapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4N/ASnowClearance 5 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.Ahousehold PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1withintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbeforebeginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowtheseco ndsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweekendsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).TransientswillalwaysfollowoneofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicat edway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprecedingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthisstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccu rstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave,orremovingsnowonlyafterthepreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

1. ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Inaccordancewiththe2012FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessProgramManual,100%ofthepopulationisnotifiedwithin45minutes.Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)that87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified0 0.0%5 7.1%10 13.3%15 26.5%20 46.9%25 66.3%30 86.7%35 91.8%40 96.9%45 100.0%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00.0%3591.7%544.0%4091.9%1062.6%4593.0%1575.4%5093.2%2078.7%5593.2%2579.3%6099.2%3091.5%75100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00.0%4578.4%510.6%5079.9%1023.7%5580.2%1535.8%6091.9%2047.7%7594.8%2551.1%9097.8%3063.5%10598.4%3565.5%120100.0%4069.4%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate00.0%1512.9%3058.0%4563.9%6086.2%7591.0%9091.9%10592.1%12096.8%13598.0%15098.0%16598.0%180100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.5,SnowClearanceTimeDistributionInclementweatherscenariosinvolvingsnowfallmustaddressthetimelagsassociatedwithsnowclearance.Itisassumedthatsnowequipmentismobilizedanddeployedduringthesnowfalltomaintainpassableroads.Thegeneralconsensusisthatthesnowplowingeffortsaregenerallysuccessfulforallbutthemostextremeblizzardswhentherateofsnowaccumulationexceedsthatofsnowclearanceoveraperiodofmanyhours.Consequently,itisreasonabletoassumethatthehighwaysystemwillremainpassable-albeitatalowercapacity-underthevastmajorityofsnowconditions.Nevertheless,forthevehiclestogainaccesstothehighwaysystem,itmaybenecessaryfordrivewaysandempl oyeeparkinglotstobeclearedtotheextentneededtopermitvehiclestogainaccesstotheroadways.Theseclearanceactivitiestaketime;thistimemustbeincorporatedintothetripgenerationtimedistributions.Thesedataareprovidedbythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 6.Notethatthoserespondents(43%)whoansweredthattheywouldnottaketimetocleartheirdrivewaywereassumedtobereadyimmediatelyatthestartofthisactivity.Essentiallytheywoulddrivethroughthesnowonthedrivewaytoaccesstheroadwayandbegintheirevacuationtrip.Table5 6.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoClear6" 8"ofSnowElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentCompletingSnowRemoval043.0%1549.3%3071.6%4576.8%6088.0%7590.1%9092.0%10592.2%12096.0%13598.3%15098.7%16598.7%180100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180 PercentofPopulationCompletingMobilizationActivityElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHomeTimetoClearSnow PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table5 7presentsthesummingpr oceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 7.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5DistributionsCand5DistributionEEvent5DistributionsDand5DistributionFEvent5Table5 8presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).ETimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip,aftersnowclearanceactivities(Event5).FTimedistributionofresidentswithnocommutersreturninghome,leavingtobegintheevacuationtrip,aftersnowclearanceactivities(Event5).5.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor500responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnon PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1parametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciplesareused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome,clearsnow)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 7,Table58);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles;4) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterth an3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3.6) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bo thveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,no ta"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturning,nosnoworsnowineach).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,using0.0%10.0%20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.5 37.542.547.5 52.557.567.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1weightingbasedupontheprobabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,C,D,EandF.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter;snowclearancefollowsthepreparationfordeparture,andsoforth.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,C,D,EandF,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother,aretabulatedinTable5 9(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(15)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Sub areascomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. Sub areascomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethe2mileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinsub areasbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoption savailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthesub areascomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*,obtainedfromsimulationresultsisscenario specific.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltrip saregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance).

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenon sheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*is2:10fornonsnowscenariosand3:00forsnowscenarios.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. Residentswithoutreturningcommutersc. Residentswithreturningcommutersandsnowconditionsd. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersandsnowconditionsFigure5 5presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommuters;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeis130minutesforgoodweatherand140minutesforsnowscenarios.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,20%ofthepopulation(whonormallywouldhavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesforanun stagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationperiod,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 10providesthetripgeneration(histograms)forstagedevacuation.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreasIntheTownofPlymouthRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlantforPilgrimNuclearPowerStation,SectionEitem6cstatesthat:ThepublicandcommercialboatingpopulationandmarinaswillreceivenotificationfromtheHarborMasterandU.S.CoastGuardboatsequippedwithpublicaddresssystems.Additionalnotificationisalsoconductedviamarineandcitizenband(CB)radiostothoseboatsthatareradioequipped.Thereisnotimeestimategivenfortheseactivities.ItisassumedboaterswillreturntomarinaswithinthemobilizationtimeoftransientswithintheEPZ.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300330360 PercentofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersReswithCommandSnowResnoCommwithSnow PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)ResidentsWithCommutersSnow(DistributionE)ResidentsWithoutCommutersSnow (DistributionF)1157%7%0%1%0%0%21535%35%0%8%0%4%31535%35%2%24%1%12%41513%13%7%26%3%16%5309%9%28%28%17%29%6301%1%29%5%24%17%7300%0%17%5%20%9%8150%0%6%1%8%3%9150%0%4%0%6%3%10150%0%2%1%5%2%11150%0%2%1%4%2%12300%0%2%0%6%2%13300%0%1%0%3%1%14900%0%0%0%3%0%156000%0%0%0%0%0%NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionsCandEforgoodweatherandsnow,respectively. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table510.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)ResidentsWithCommutersSnow(DistributionE)ResidentsWithoutCommutersSnow (DistributionF)1150%0%0%0%2150%2%0%1%3150%5%0%2%4152%5%1%3%5305%5%3%6%6306%1%5%4%73070%79%4%1%8156%1%2%1%9154%0%1%1%10152%1%68%76%11152%1%4%2%12302%0%6%2%13301%0%3%1%14900%0%3%0%156000%0%0%0%*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 9)isthesameforUnstagedandStagedEvacuation.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation5 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270300330360

%ofPopulationEvacuatingElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersReswithCommandSnowResnoCommwithSnowStagedResidentswithCommutersStagedResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommuters(Snow)StagedResidentswithnoCommuters(Snow)

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingsub areasthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergenc y.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Atotalof27Regionsweredefinedwhichenco mpassallthegroupingsofsub areasconsidered.TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable6 1.Thesub areaconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesectorbasedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thecentralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesfromtheplant(RegionsR04throughR08)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR09throughR21).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,respectively.RegionsR22throughR27areidenticaltoRegionsR02andR04throughR08,respectively;however,thosesub areasbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2 mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.Atotalof14ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRe gions.Thus,thereareatotalof27x14=378evacuationcases.Table6 2isadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeachscenario.Table6 4presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThevehicleestimatespresentedinSection3arepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentages,suchthattheaveragepopulationisconsider edforeachevacuationcase.ThescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 3,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.ThepercentagespresentedinTable6 3weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof65%(thenumberofho useholdswithatleastonecommuter)and38%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommuterthatwouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.Employmentisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedontheestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedthatonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeakduringsummerweekendsandless(80%)duringtheweek.AsshowninAppendixE,thereisasignificantamountoflodgingandcampgroundsofferingovernightaccommodationsintheEPZ;thus,transientactivityisestimatedtobehighduringeveninghours-40%forsummerand15%forwinter.Transientactivityonwinterweekendsisestimatedtobe35%.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 3,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheshadowregionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshado wregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 4forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:Onespecialevent-Plymouth4 thofJulyFireworks-wasconsideredasScenario13.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario13,and0%forallotherscenarios.Itisestimatedthatsummerschoolenrollmentisapproximately10%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearforsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Schoolisnotinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbusesforthetransit dependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentpopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsBasicRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R012 MileRadius2 MileRingxxR025 MileRadius5 MileRingxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRingxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R04NW,NNW,N306°019°xxxR05NNE,NE,ENE020°069°xxxxR06E070°122°xxxR07ESE,SE123°140°xxxxR08SSE,S141°183°xxxN/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW184°305°RefertoRegionR01Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R09NW,NNW,N319°019°xxxxxxR10020°021°xxxxxxxR11NNE,NE022°056°xxxxxxxxR12057°066°xxxxxxxR13067°069°xxxxxxxxR14ENE070°103°xxxxxxxxxR15E,ESE104°109°xxxxxxxxxxR16110°115°xxxxxxxxxR17116°129°xxxxxxxxR18SE130°132°xxxxxxxxxR19133°140°xxxxxxxxR20SSE,S141°175°xxxxxxxR21176°179°xxxxxxN/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW180°318°RefertoRegionR02StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R22None5 MileRingxxxxxR23NW,NNW,N020°069°xxxR24NNE,NE,ENE070°122°xxxxR25E123°140°xxxR26ESE,SE141°183°xxxxR27SSE,S184°305°xxxN/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW2 MileRingRefertoRegionR01KeyShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSubarea(s)Shelter in PlaceSubarea(s)Evacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStation6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.PNPsEPZSub areas PilgrimNuclearPowerStation6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodPlymouth4 thofJulyFireworks14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonRt.3NB1Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployees TransientsShadowSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic125%75%96%80%20%0%10%100%100%225%75%96%80%20%0%10%100%100%310%90%10%100%21%0%0%100%100%410%90%10%100%21%0%0%100%100%510%90%10%40%21%0%0%100%40%625%75%100%25%20%0%100%100%100%725%75%100%25%20%0%100%100%100%825%75%100%25%20%0%100%100%100%910%90%10%35%21%0%0%100%100%1010%90%10%35%21%0%0%100%100%1110%90%10%35%21%0%0%100%100%1210%90%10%15%21%0%0%100%40%1310%90%10%40%21%100%0%100%40%1425%75%96%80%20%0%10%100%100%ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees..................................................EPZemployeeswholiveoutsidetheEPZTransients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow......................................................Resid entsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeopleandcorrectionalfacilitypopulation(1bu sisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTraffic.............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbyaccesscontrolapproximately2hoursaftertheevacuationbegins.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadow SpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBuses 1ExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles 112,17537,1102,0459,0408,5578622022,26091,493212,17537,1102,0459,0408,5578622022,26091,49331,21848,06721311,3008,39722022,26091,67541,21848,06721311,3008,39722022,26091,67551,21848,0672133,2778,3972208,90470,296612,17537,1102,1302,8258,56485522022,26086,139712,17537,1102,1302,8258,56485522022,26086,139812,17537,1102,1302,8258,56485522022,26086,13991,21848,0672133,9558,39722022,26084,330101,21848,0672133,9558,39722022,26084,330111,21848,0672133,9558,39722022,26084,330121,21848,0672131,6958,3972208,90468,714131,21848,0672133,2778,39710,4172208,90480,7131412,17537,1102,0459,0408,5578622022,26091,4931 TransitbusesincludebusesusedtoevacuatethetransitdependentpermanentresidentpopulationandthosebusesusedtoevacuatethecorrectionalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover27regionswithinthePNPSEPZandthe14EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTabl e7 4.Table7 5definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZinsub areasforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevolunt aryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendationhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithinth eimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEforthePNPSEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpeoplelocatedinsub areasoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,ar eassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedthat20percentofthosepeopleintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof79,277peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4fo rthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion,travelingawayfromthePNPSlocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingevacuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Sub areascomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.2. Sub areascomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomilere gioniscleared.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofthe2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewithth eshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 9illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthesummer,midweek,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario1).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedinthesefiguresbyathickredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.Congestiondevelopsrapidlyaroundconcentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecks.Figure7 3displaysthedevelopingcongestionwithintheEPZ,just30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).NotethatUS 44,whichservesasoneofthemainevacuationroutesoutoftheEPZ,displaysfullydevelopedcongestion(LOSF)justoutsidetheEPZwherethehighwaynarrowstoasinglelane.Route3,whichisservicingtheexternal externaltrips,isdisplayingmoderatetrafficdemand(LOSCandD)onthosesectionsexitingtheEPZ(southboundtothesouth;northboundtothenorth).AtonehouraftertheATE ,Figure7 4displaysanEPZthatisfullycongested,particularlythe PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1populationcentersofPlymouthandDuxbury.Tothesouth,therearealimitednumberofroutesexitingtheEPZ;assuch,evacuatingvehiclesarequeuedalongRoute3AandLongPondRdwellintothe5 mileregion.TherearefewaccesspointstoRoute25andI 195southoftheEPZ,whichcausescongestioninthetownsofBuzzardsBa yandWareham.TrafficcongestionalongRoute3isnowfullydevelopedinthetownofPlymouthandtothenorthoftheEPZinthetownMarshfield.StateRoute58isexperiencingsignificantcongestiontowardsUS 44whichisprohibitingtherateofevacueesexit ingSub areas6and11.CongestionalongBeaverDamRd,whichisusedtoaccessRoute3,inSub area2isfullydevelopedwhichhascreatedmoderatecongestionwithinthe2 mileringandinSub Area1.At2hours,asshowninFigure7 5,trafficcong estionpersistsalongUS 44westbound,Route3inthetownofPlymouth,andRoute3ASouthboundandLongPondRd.TrafficcongestioninSub areas6and11andinthetownsofPlymouthandDuxburybeginstodissipate.The2 mileregionisnowclearofcongestion.Heavycon gestionstillexiststothesouthoftheEPZinBuzzardsBayandWareham,andtothenorthinPembroke.ThecongestionintheshadowisimpedingtheflowofevacuatingtrafficoutoftheEPZ.At2hours,45minutes,asshowninFigure7 6,thetownofPlymouthisnowclearofcongestion.CongestedconditionsremainonUS 44westbound,Route3northboundinMarshfield,alongLongPondRdandRoute3Atothesouth,andintheshadowregionaroundthetownsofBuzzardsBayandWareham.The5 mileregionisessentiallyclearofcongestionwiththeexceptionofRoute3A.At3hours,30minutes,the5 mileareaisclearedofcongestionasshowninFigure7 7.TheportionofUS 44withintheEPZisalsofreeofcongestion.ThetownofDuxburyisessentiallyclearofcongestion.LongPondRdhasbeenclearedofcongestion,butLO SFstillremainsalongRoute3A.CongestionintheshadowstillpersistsinthetownsofBuzzardsBayandWarehamtothesouth.CongestioninPembrokehasbeguntodissipateandnolongerextendsintotheEPZ.CongestiononRoute3clearswithintheEPZat2hours,50minutes.At4hours,Figure7 8displaysanEPZthatisessentiallyclearofcongestion.CongestiontothesouthinthetownofWarehamcausessomequeuingintotheEPZinSub area11alongTihonetRd.TrafficcongestionwithintheEPZclearsat4:10aftertheATE,whichisbeforethecompletionoftrip generation(mobilization)time.Finally,at4hours,30minutesaftertheATE,theloneremnantofcongestionisintheshadowregiontothesouth,inthetownofWareham,asshowninFigure7 9.Thistrafficclearsat4:45aftertheATE.7.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 10throughFigure7 23.TheseFiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispres entedforeachscenarioconsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 10,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegin PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1toevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeuntiltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyun attainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1throughTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall27EvacuationRegionsandall14EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3throughTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2 Mileregio nforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Theyareorganizedasfollows:TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 9.Mostofthecongestionislocatedintheshadow,southofSub area5;thisisreflectedintheETEstatistics: The90 thpercentileETEforRegionsR01andR02(2and5 mileareas)arecomparableandgenerallyrangebetween1:50(hr:min)and2:15(higherforsnow).

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 The90 thpercentileETEforRegionsR03(fullEPZ)andR09-R11(whichextendtotheEPZboundarytothesouth)areapproximatelyanhourlonger.The100 thpercentileETEforallRegionsandforallScenariosarethesamevaluesasthemobilizationtimesplusashorttraveltime.ThisfactimpliesthatthecongestionwithintheEPZdissipatespriortotheendofmobilization,asisdisplayedinFigure7 9.ComparisonofScenarios5and13inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-4 thofJulyFireworksinPlymouth-hasamaterialimpactontheETEforthe90 thpercentileforRegionsR03(fullEPZ)andRegionsR13-R18(RegionswhichincludeSub area7)withincreasesupto25minutes.AsdiscussedinSection6,theexternaltrafficisreducedby60%forthesescenariosastheyareeveningscenarios.Theadditional10,417vehiclespresentforthespecialeventincreas econgestiononthelocalroadsinPlymouthandontherampstoRoute3.However,muchofthecapacityalongRoute3isavailablebecauseofthereducedexternaltraffic.Asaresult,the100 thpercentileETEisunaffectedbythespecialevent.ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonRoute3fromtheinterchangewithClarkRoad(Exit3)totheendoftheanalysis networkaftertheinterchangewithChurchStreet(Exit12)-hasamaterialimpactonthe90 thand100 thpercentileETE,withincreasesupto40minutesand15minutesrespectively.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,thecongestiononRoute3islocalizedaroundthepopulationcentersofPlymouthintheEPZandinMarshfieldintheShadow.Plymouthislocatedwithinthe5 mileregion,andthereforethe90 thpercentileETEincreasesbyupto40minutesforregionswhichextenddownwindto5miles.WindsfromtheSouthandEast(RegionsR16throughR19)carrytheplumeoverthepopulationcenterofPlymouthwhichroutestrafficontoRoute3.WithalaneclosedonRoute3northbound,thecapacityisredu cedtohalf,increasingcongestionandprolongingETE.TheresultsoftheroadwayimpactscenarioindicatethateventssuchasadverseweatherortrafficaccidentswhichclosealaneonRoute3,couldimpactETE.Stateandlocalpolicecouldconsidertrafficmanagementtacticssuchasusingtheshoulderoftheroadwayasatravellan eorre routingoftrafficalongotherevacuationroutestoavoidoverwhelmingRoute3.AlleffortsshouldbemadetoremovetheblockageonRoute3,particularlywithinthefirst3hoursoftheevacuation.7.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3andTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEcompiledfortheconcurrent(un staged)andstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR22throughR27ar ethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR02andR04throughR08,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustshowthatth eETEforthe2Mileregioncanbereducedwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheregionbetween2milesand5miles.Inallcases,asshowninthesetables,theETEforthe2mileregionisunchangedwhenastagedevacuationisimplemented.Thereasonforthisisthatthecongestionwithinthe5 mileareadoesnotextendupstreamtotheextentthatitpenetratesto PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1within2milesofthePNPS.Consequently,theimpedance,duetothiscongestionwithinthe5 milearea,toevacueesfromwithinthe2mileareaisnotsufficienttomateriallyinfluencethe90 thpercentileETEforthe2 milearea.Therefore,stagingtheevacuationtosharplyreducecongestionwithinthe5 milearea,providesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles.Whilefailingtoprovideassistancetoevacueesfromwithin2milesofthePNPS,stagin gproducesanegativeimpactontheETEforthoseevacuatingfromwithinthe5milearea.AcomparisonofETEbetweenRegions,R22andR02;R23andR04;R24andR05;R25andR06;R26andR07;andR27andR08revealsthatstagingretardsthe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthoseinthe2to5mileareabyupto40minutesfornon snowscenariosand1hourand20minutesforsnowscenarios(seeTable7 1).ThisextendingofETEisduetothedelayinbeginningtheevacuationtrip,experiencedbythosewhoshelter,plustheeffectofthetrip generation"spike"(significantvolumeoftrafficbeginningtheevacuationtripatthesametime)thatfollowstheireventualATE,increatingcongestionwithintheEPZareabeyond2miles.Insummary,thestagedevacuationoptionprovidesnobenefitsandadverselyimpactsmanyevacueeslocatedbeyond2milesfromthePNPS.7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain Snow* SpecialEven t Plymouth4 thofJulyFireworks RoadClosure(OnelaneonRt.3northboundisclosed)* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsidered PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WhiletheseScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(10)forrainapply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andsnowarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(8)and(11)forsnowapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellin gto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewinddirection).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation:fromN,NNE,NE,-* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.Theapplic abledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(RegionR01) To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR08) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R09throughR21)* EnterTable7 5andidentifytheap plicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthedistancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromPNPS.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionoftheplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* Identifytherowinthi stablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionisfromthenortheast(NE).* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea5 mileradiusanddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 5andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary"forwinddirectionfromtheNEandreadRegionR11inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR11.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR11;itcontainstheETEvalueof2:55.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadway ImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5 MileRegion,andEPZR012:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R022:102:152:102:102:102:152:152:352:102:102:302:102:202:45R032:553:052:553:052:402:453:003:302:402:553:202:403:003:202 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:102:152:102:102:152:102:152:302:102:102:252:152:152:30R052:102:152:102:102:102:152:152:352:102:102:302:102:202:45R062:052:052:002:002:002:052:102:202:002:052:152:002:202:45R072:052:052:002:002:002:052:102:202:002:052:152:002:202:45R082:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:105 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR092:452:502:402:502:452:402:503:202:352:503:152:452:453:10R102:402:502:302:502:402:402:453:202:302:403:152:352:453:10R112:402:552:402:552:402:402:503:152:352:453:102:352:503:10R122:252:302:152:252:152:202:252:552:102:202:452:152:352:50R132:352:402:302:402:202:302:403:102:202:303:002:202:452:40R142:302:452:252:352:202:302:403:152:202:302:552:202:452:55R152:402:502:352:452:252:352:453:202:252:353:052:252:503:10R162:252:352:252:352:202:252:353:052:202:302:552:202:353:00R172:252:402:302:352:202:252:353:052:202:302:552:202:353:05R182:302:352:252:352:202:252:353:052:252:302:552:202:353:00R192:202:252:202:252:152:252:253:002:152:252:502:152:253:00R202:152:202:102:152:152:152:202:452:102:152:352:152:152:45R212:102:152:102:102:102:152:152:402:102:102:302:102:202:45StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR222:452:502:402:452:502:452:503:502:452:453:502:502:453:10R232:402:452:402:452:552:452:503:502:402:453:452:552:553:00R242:452:502:402:452:502:452:503:502:452:453:502:502:453:10R252:252:302:252:252:302:302:303:252:252:253:252:302:303:00R262:252:302:252:252:302:302:303:252:252:253:252:302:303:00R272:152:151:551:552:002:152:153:052:002:002:552:001:552:15 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadway ImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5 MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:454:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:502 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:355 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR094:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R104:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R114:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R124:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R134:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R144:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R154:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:50R164:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:55R174:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:55R184:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:55R194:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R204:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40R214:404:404:404:404:404:404:406:104:404:406:104:404:404:40StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR224:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R234:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R244:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R254:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R264:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35R274:354:354:354:354:354:354:356:054:354:356:054:354:354:35 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadway ImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR012:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R022:052:051:502:001:502:102:102:551:502:052:401:552:052:052 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR042:102:101:552:101:552:102:102:552:002:002:451:551:552:10R052:052:051:502:001:552:102:102:551:502:002:401:552:052:05R062:002:051:401:401:452:102:102:551:501:502:401:502:052:00R072:002:051:401:401:452:102:102:551:501:502:401:502:052:00R082:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR222:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R232:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R242:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R252:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R262:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10R272:102:101:501:501:502:102:102:551:501:502:451:501:452:10 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeeken dMidweekWeekendMidweekWeeken dWeeken dMidwee kScenario(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadway ImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:302 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R064:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R074:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R084:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR224:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R234:304:354:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R244:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R254:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R264:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30R274:304:304:304:304:304:304:306:004:304:306:004:304:304:30 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsBasicRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R012 MileRadius2 MileRingxxR025 MileRadius5 MileRingxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRingxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R04NW,NNW,N306°019°xxxR05NNE,NE,ENE020°069°xxxxR06E070°122°xxxR07ESE,SE123°140°xxxxR08SSE,S141°183°xxxN/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW184°305°RefertoRegionR01Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R09NW,NNW,N319°019°xxxxxxR10020°021°xxxxxxxR11NNE,NE022°056°xxxxxxxxR12057°066°xxxxxxxR13067°069°xxxxxxxxR14ENE070°103°xxxxxxxxxR15E,ESE104°109°xxxxxxxxxxR16110°115°xxxxxxxxxR17116°129°xxxxxxxxR18SE130°132°xxxxxxxxxR19133°140°xxxxxxxxR20SSE,S141°175°xxxxxxxR21176°179°xxxxxxN/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW180°318°RefertoRegionR02StagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R22None5 MileRingxxxxxR23NW,NNW,N020°069°xxxR24NNE,NE,ENE070°122°xxxxR25E123°140°xxxR26ESE,SE141°183°xxxxR27SSE,S184°305°xxxN/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW2 MileRingRefertoRegionR01KeyShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSubarea(s)Shelter in PlaceSubarea(s)Evacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.PNPSShadowRegion PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2Hoursand45minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat3Hours,30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 9.CongestionPatternsat4Hoursand30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300330360390 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario9)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure721.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300330360390 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario12)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation7 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure722.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03Figure723.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario14)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles.Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschools,medica lfacilities,andcorrectionalfacilities;and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepres entsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilit yTheseactivitiesconsumetime.Basedondiscussionwiththeoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbusmobilizationtimewillaverageapproximately90minutesextendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizat ionactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointheirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentpublicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsofthePNPSEPZindicatesthatifanevacuationisordered,schoolchildrenwillbeevacuatedtoReceptionCenters,andthatparentsshouldpickschoolchildrenupattheseReceptionCenters.AsdiscussedinSection2,thisstudyassumesafastbreakinggeneralemergency.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtoReceptionCenters.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovide sestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.Itisassumedth atchildrenatday carecentersarepickedupbyparentsorguardians,unlesstheschoolisindicatedinthelocalplans,andthatthetimetoperformthisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions* EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtothehostfacilities8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicl eavailable.* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailableatthetimetheevacuationisadvised.Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuat ethehousehold.Table8 1presentsestimatesoftransit dependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransit dependentpersonswillevacuatebyride sharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedarid ewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransit dependentpersonsisbasedonanestimateofaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transi tvehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60childrenonaverage(roughlyequivalentto40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthenumberof"adultseats"takenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverageloadfactoranticipatedis(27/40)x100=68percent.Thus,iftheactualdemandforserviceexc eedstheestimatesofTable8 1by50percent,thedemandforservicecanstillbeaccommodatedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.Table8 1indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor2,167people.Therefore,atotalof73busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorride share,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredforthePNPSEPZ:Where,A=PercentofhouseholdswithcommutersC=Percentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter Thesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(1.50avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(1.2%)willevacuatebypublictransitorride share.Theterm36,705(numberofhouseholds)x0.012x1.50,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(23.1%),whoareathome,equal(1.57 1).ThenumberofHHwherethecomm uterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(36,705x0.231x0.65x0.62),as65%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,62%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(52.6%),whoareathome,equal(2.55-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto36,705x0.526x(0.65x0.62)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehi cles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.Theestimateoftransit dependentpopulationinTable8 1farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransit dependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbythetowns(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR 6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajorityofthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 2presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZforthe2010 2011schoolyear.Thisinformationwasprovidedbythelocaltownemergencymanagementagencies.ThecolumninTable8 2entitled"BusesRequired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(asdiscussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR 7002),th eestimateofbusesrequiredforschoolevacuationdonotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsand50formiddleandhighschools.* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacu ateintheirprivatevehicles.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.ItisrecommendedthatthetownsintheEPZintroduceprocedureswherebytheschoolsarecontactedpriortothedispatchofbusesfromthedepot(approximatelyonehouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate),toascertainthecurr entestimateofstudentstobeevacuated.Inthisway,thenumberofbusesdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Theneedforbuseswouldbereducedbyanyhighschoolstudentswhohaveevacuatedusingprivateautomobiles(ifpermittedbyschoolauthorities).Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuateschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoride sharing.Table8 3presentsalistoftheschoolreceptioncent ersforeachschoolintheEPZ.Studentswillbetransportedtothesefacilitieswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.8.3 MedicalFacilityDemandTable8 4presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.2,018peoplehavebeenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,th esefacilities.Thecapacityandcurrentcensusforeachfacilitywereprovidedbythetownemergencymanagementagencies.Thisdataincludesthenumberofambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpatientsateachfacility.ThetransportationrequirementsforthespecialfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable8 4.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingth at2patientscanbeaccommodatedperambulancetrip;thenumberofwheelchairbusrunsassumes15wheelchairspertripandthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientspertrip.8.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDepende ntPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetime PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1oftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhat"inefficient",orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,theETEforthetransit dependentpopulationwillbecalculatedforbothaonewavetransitevacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandthisdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransit dependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinapositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthepick uppoints.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortransittripsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure8 1presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure8 1.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Itisassumedthatforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergencywithnoobservableindicationbeforethefact,driverswouldlikelyrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransit dependentfacilities.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerinadverseweather-100minuteswhenraining,110minuteswhensnowing.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)Basedondiscussionswithoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof15minutes(20minutesforrainand25minutesforsnow)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapick uproute(transit dependentbusroutes)estimationoftraveltimemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpick uppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:s=v 2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservicepassengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s,wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespick uptimeperbusrunimplies30st opsperrun,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;totalloadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain,50minutesinsnow.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbytheEPZtownemergencymanagementagenciesandaresummarizedinTable8 5.Alsoincludedinthetablearethenumberofbusesneededtoevacuateschools,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpopulation,homeboundspecialneeds(discussedbelowinSection8.5)andcorrectionalfacilities(discussedbelowinSection0).Thesenumbersindicatetherear enotenoughbusestoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulationinonewave.Forthisreason,atwo waveevacuationispresentedinTable8 11,Table8 12,andTable8 13.Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus15minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusroutesalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriateschoolreceptioncenter.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.EachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentotheDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,forea chbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 6(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,100to105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsintheEPZisshowninTable8 7throughTable8 9forschoolevacuation,inTable8 11throughTable8 13forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransit dependentpersons(whicharediscussedlater),andTable8 14throughTable8 16forthepeoplelivingat,orbeingtreatedin,specialfacilities.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedistancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundarytotheReceptionCenterwa scomputedassuminganaveragespeedof40mph,35mph,and30mphforgoodweather,rainandsnow,respectively.SpeedswerereducedinTable8 7throughTable8 9,Table8 11throughTable8 13,andforbusesonlyinTable8 14throughTable8 16to40mph(36mphforrain-10%decrease-and32mphfo rsnow-20%decrease)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhichexceed40mph,astheschoolbusspeedlimitforstateroutesinMassachusettsis40mph.Table8 7(goodweather),Table8 8(rain)andTable8 9(snow)presentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)TheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)Th eelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachestheSchoolReceptionCenter.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E(Forexample:90min.+15+81=3:10forAfterSchoolClubAlden,wit hgoodweather).TheevacuationtimetotheSchoolReceptionCenterisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityE F(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuaonme.EvacuationofTransit DependentPopulationThebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransit dependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure5 4(ResidentswithnoCommuters),87percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,approximately90minutesafterth eAdvisorytoEvacuate.Transit dependentbusesweredistributedthroughouttheEPZbasedonSub areapopulation.Sub areas5and9havethelargestpopulationsandrequiremorebusesthananyothersubareas.Routeswhichareservicedbymultiplebusesuse5,10or20minut eheadwaysdependingonthenumberofbuses,asshowninTable8 11throughTable8 13.Theuseofbusheadwaysensuresthatthosepeoplewhotakelongertomobilizewillbepickedup.Mobilizationtimeis10minuteslongerinrainand20 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1minuteslongerinsnow,toaccountforslowertravelspeedsandreducedroadwaycapacity.Thosebusesservicingthetransit dependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpick uproutes,thenproceedoutoftheEPZ.The11busroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure8 2anddescribedinTable8 10aredefinedinthe2011EmergencyPublicInformationCalendar.Itisassumedthatresidentswillwalktoandcongregateatthesepre designatedpick uproutes,andthattheycanarriveatthestopswithinthe90minutebusmobilizationtime(goodweather).Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof30minutes(goodweather)isestimatedfor30individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwitheachstop.Longerpickuptimesof40minutesand50mi nutesareusedforrainandsnow,respectively.Thetraveldistancealongtherespectivepick uprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoftware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEV,usingtheaforementionedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table8 11throughTable8 13presentthetransit dependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweather,rainandsnow,respectively.Forexample,theETEforthebusrouteservicingsub area1iscomputedas90+41+30=2:45forgoodweather(roundeduptonearest5minutes).Here,41minutesisthetimetotravel25.6milesat37.2mph,theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelforthisrouteat90minutes.TheETEforaseco ndwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers,aspreviouslydiscussed.Activity:TraveltoReceptionCenters(E F)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytothereceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtothereceptioncenter.ThereceptioncentersaremappedinFigure10 1.Foraonewaveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwo waveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsideredseparately,sinceitcouldexc eedtheETEforthegeneralpopulation.Assumedbusspeedsof40mph,35mph,and30mphforgoodweather,rain,andsnow,respectively,willbeappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthetransit dependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(F G)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(G C)ThebusesassignedtoreturntotheEPZtoperforma"secondwave"evacuationoftransit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransit dependentpeoplewhomobilizedmorequickly.Thefirstwaveoftransit dependentpeopledepartthebus,andthebusthenreturnstotheEPZ,travelstoitsrouteandproceedstopickupmor etransit dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltime PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1tothereceptioncenter.Thesecond waveETEforthebusrouteservicingsub area1iscomputedasfollowsforgoodweather:* Busarrivesatreceptioncenterat3:26ingoodweather(2:45toexitEPZ+41minutetraveltimetoreceptioncenter).* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10 mi nuterest:15minutes.* BusreturnstoEPZandcompletessecondroute:41minutes(equaltotraveltimetoreceptioncenter)+38minutes(25.6miles@40mph)=79minutes* Buscompletespick upsalongroute:30minutes.* BusexitsEPZattime2:45+0:41+0:15+0:79+0:30=5:30(roundedtonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheETEforthecompletionofthesecondwaveforalltransit dependentbusroutesareprovidedinTable8 11throughTable8 13.TheaverageETEforatw o waveevacuationoftransit dependentpeopleexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90 thpercentile.Therelocationoftransit dependentevacueesfromthereceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthetownsdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.EvacuationofMedicalFacilitiesThebusoperationsforthisgrouparesimilartothoseforschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof30patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythepatients.* Thepassengerloadingtimewillbelongeratapproximatelyoneminuteperpatienttoaccountforthetimetomovepati entsfrominsidethefacilitytothevehicles.Table8 4indicatesthat47busruns,42wheelchairbusrunsand141ambulancerunsareneededtoserviceallofthemedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.AccordingtoTable8 5,thetownscancollectivelyprovide502buses,90vansand11ambulances.Thus,therearenotenoughresourcestoevacuatepeoplefr omthemedicalfacilitiesinasinglewave;amultiwaveevacuationisneededtoevacuatethesepeople.Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverages90minutes.Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.Table8 14throughTable8 16summarizetheETEformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZforgoodweather,rain,andsnow.Averageoutputspeedsproducedbyth emodelforScenario6(Scenario7forrainandScenario8forsnow)Region3,cappedat40mph(36mphforrainand32mphforsnow)forbuses,areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundaryiscomputedbydistancetotheEPZboundarybyth eaveragetravelspeed.TheETEisthesumofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelchairbuses/vans,andambulancesat PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1capacityisassumedsuchthatthemaximumloadingtimesforbuses,wheelchairbusesandambulancesare30,75,and30minutesrespectively.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,thecalculationofETEfortheBairdCenterGroupHomewith19ambulatoryresidentsduringgoodweatheris:ETE:90+19x1+9=118min.or2:00roundedtothenearest5minutes.Itisassumedthatspecialfacilit ypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughthereceptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.8.5 SpecialNeedsPopulationThelocalemergencymanagementagencieshavearegistrationfortransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Basedondataprovidedbythemunicipalities,thereareanestimated60homeboundspecialneedspeoplewithinCarver,51peoplewithinDuxbury,40peoplewith inKingston,7peoplewithinMarshfield,and138peoplewithinPlymouthwhorequiretransportationassistancetoevacuate.ThroughouttheentireEPZ,thereare228ambulatorypersons,59wheelchair boundpersonsand9bedriddenpersons.ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsTable8 17summarizestheETEforhomeboundspecialneedspeople.Thetableiscategorizedbytypeofvehiclerequiredandthenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesintoconsiderationthedeploymentofmultiplevehiclestoreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.Itisconservativelyassumedthatambulatoryandwheelch airboundspecialneedshouseholdsarespaced3milesapartandbedriddenhouseholdsarespaced5milesapart.Vanandbusspeedsapproximate20mphbetweenhouseholdsandambulancespeedsapproximate30mphingoodweather(10%slowerinrain,20%slowerinsnow).Mobilizationtimesof90minuteswereused(100minutesforrain,and110minutesforsnow).ThelastHHisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andth enetwork wideaveragespeed,cappedat40mph(36mphforrainand32mphforsnow),afterthelastpickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.ETEiscomputedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtimeatfirsthousehol d,traveltosubsequenthouseholds,loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,assumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperHHimpliesthat228ambulatoryhouseholdsneedtobeserviced.Whileonly8busesareneededfr omacapacityperspective,if25busesaredeployedtoservicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequireabout10stops.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:1. Assume25busesaredeployed,eachwithabout10stops,toserviceatotalof228HH.2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:90minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirstpickup:5minutesc. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:9@9minutes=81minutesd. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:8@5m inutes=45minutes PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1e. TraveltoEPZboundary:13minutes(5milesat23.1mph).ETE:90+5+81+45+13=3:55roundedtothenearest5minutesThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculationsifasecondwaveisneededusingschoolbusesaftertheschoolshavebeenevacuated:a. Busarrivesatschoolreceptioncenter:2:45(averagetimeforETEtoR.C.fromTable8 7)b. UnloadstudentsatReceptionCenter:5minutes.c. Drivertakes10minuterest:10minutes.d. TraveltimebacktoEPZ:28minutes(31minutes-rain,36minutes-snow)(averagetimeof"TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoH.S."fromTable8 7,8 8and8 9)e. Loadingtimeatfirsthousehold:5minutesf. Bustravelstosubsequenthousehol ds:9stops@9minutes=81minutes(90minutes-rain,99minutes-snow)g. Loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds:9stops@5minutes=45minutesh. TraveltimetoEPZboundaryat5:30(6:20-rain;6:45-snow):5miles@23.0mph=13minutes(19.4mph,16minutes-rain;19.0mph,16minutessnow)ETE:2:45+5+10+18+5+81+45+13=5:45RainETE:3:10+5+10+31+5+90+45+26=6:45SnowETE:3:25+5+10+36+5+99+45+16=7:05 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.6 CorrectionalFacilitiesAsdetailedinTableE 6,therearetwocorrectionalfacilitieswithintheEPZ-PlymouthCountyCorrectionalFacilityandMCIPlymouth.Thetotalinmatepopulationatthesefacilitiesis1,820persons.Atotalof37busesareneededtoevacuatethesetwofacilities,basedonacapacityof50inmatesperbus.Mobilizationti meisassumedtobe90minutes(100minutesinrainand110insnow).Itisestimatedthatittakes15minutestoloadtheinmatesontoabus,andthat5busescanbeloadedinparallel.Thus,maximumloadingtimeisestimatedatapproximately1hoursand40minutes(PlymouthCountyCorrectional).Thedetailedevacuationplansforthesefacilitiesareconfidential.UsingGISsoftware,theshortestdistancefromthefacilitytotheEPZboundary,travelingawayfromtheplant,isabout7milesand5milesforPlymouthCountyCorrectionalandMCIPlymouth,respectively.Thetraveltimetotraverse7miles,forPlymouthCountyCorrectionFacility,is11minutes(37mphat3:10aftertheATE)ingoodweather,13minutes(33.6mphat3:20)inrainand15minutes(28.7mphat3:30)insnow.Table8 18summarizestheETEforthecorrectionalfacilitiesintheEPZ.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,forPlymouthCountyCorrectionalFacilitytheETEiscalculatedasfollows:ETE:90+96+11=3:20RainETE:100+96+13=3:30SnowETE:110+96+15=3:45 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter EBusExitsRegion FBusArrivesatReceptionCenter/HostFacilityGBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationService Activity A B DriverMobilization B C TraveltoFacilityortoPick upRoute C D PassengersBoardtheBus D E BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary E F BusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenterOutsidetheEPZ F G PassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreakFigure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time(SubsequentWave)

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimatedNo.ofHouseholds SurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHH withCommuters SurveyPercentHH withNon ReturningCommuters TotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharingPercentagePeopleRequiring PublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiringPublicTransit01201293,9641.501.572.5536,7051.2%23.1%52.6%65%62%4,33350%2,1672.3%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolPopulationBusandVanDemandEstimatesSub areaSchoolNameEnrollment BusRunsVanRuns1GardenofKnowledge44101KinderKollege30031LeapingFrogsPreschool20031ManometElementarySchool375602IndianBrookElementarySchool7701102PlymouthSouthHighSchool1,5313102PlymouthSouthMiddleSchool7501502TinyTownInc.45103Children'sCreativeLearningCenter20033Hop,Skip&JumpPreschool20103KinderCarePilgrimHill71103LearningSafariDayCare&Preschool44103MountPleasantSchool142303NathanielMortonElementarySchool6361003PlymouthCommunityIntermediateSchool1,2772603PlymouthNorthHighSchool1,1162303Room2GrowNurserySchool31103SmallScholarsPreschool38105BrightIdeasPreschool36025NewTestamentChristianSchool111205PondsChildcareCenter83205SouthElementarySchool7551106FederalFurnaceSchool460706MethodistNurserySchool30036MissJoAnne'sBrightBegnnngsBeginnings25036WoodsideSchoolandCommunityResourceCenter48407ColdSpringElementarySchool258407CrayonCollegeAtPlymouth39307HedgeElementarySchool226407KinderCareRichard'sRoad55107PilgrimAcademy58107RisingTideCharterPublicSchool320707WestElementarySchool478708CrayonCollegeInc.55108GrowthUnlimitedPreschool30108KingstonElementarySchool6751008KingstonIntermediateSchool7091508LittlePeoplesCountryDay9028SacredHeartEarlyChildhood100208SacredHeartElementarySchool355608SacredHeartHighSchool462100 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub areaSchoolNameEnrollment BusRunsVanRuns8SilverLakeRegionalHighSchool1,2512608SilverLakeRegionalMiddleSchool6101308SouthShoreEarlyEducation245408WoodedAcresChildCare45109AfterSchoolClubAlden35109AldenSchool8221209BayFarmMontessoriAcademy188309BerrybrookSchool54109BlueRiverMontesorriMontessoriSchool10029BreakfastClubChandler30109CedarhillRetreatConferenceCenterDaycare10019ChandlerElementarySchool6421009DiscoveryCornerDaycare10109DuxburyBayMaritimeSchool250509DuxburyHighSchool1,0172109DuxburyMiddleSchool8101709ElementsMontessoriSchool19109GoodShepherdChristianAcademy108309JuniorClubChandler47109KindergartenExtChandler97209MagicDragonChildrensCenter170309PiedPiperPreschool49109PilgrimAreaCollab.(Alden)8039PilgrimAreaCollab.(Chandler)13039PilgrimAreaCollab.(HighSchool)17039PilgrimAreaCollab.(Middle)5019PilgrimAreaCollaborative17039PilgrimChildCare&Preschool76209SouthShoreConsPreschool341010GovernorEdwardWinslowSchool4509011CaptPalPreSchool301011CarverElementarySchool4487011CarverHighSchool52611011CarverMiddleSchool45210011CranberryCrossingDayCare581011ErwinK.WashburnPrimarySchool4076011KidsCountDaySchool391011KidstopEarlyChildhoodCenter922011OldColonyYMCA8020TOTAL: 21,60841035 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.SchoolHostFacilitiesSchoolHostFacilityCaptPalPreSchoolAdrianTinsleyCenteratBridgewaterStateUniversityCranberryCrossingDayCareCrayonCollegeAtPlymouthGrowthUnlimitedPreschoolKidsCountDaySchoolKidstopEarlyChildhoodCenterKingstonElementarySchoolKingstonIntermediateSchoolLittlePeoplesCountryDayWoodedAcresChildCareManometElementarySchoolBennettSchoolAfterSchoolClubAldenBraintreeHighSchoolAldenSchoolBayFarmMontessoriAcademyBerrybrookSchoolBlueRiverMontesorriMontessoriSchoolBreakfastClubChandlerCedarhillRetreatConferenceCenterDaycareChandlerElementarySchoolDiscoveryCornerDaycareDuxburyBayMaritimeSchoolDuxburyHighSchoolDuxburyMiddleSchoolElementsMontessoriSchoolGoodShepherdChristianAcademyJuniorClubChandlerKindergartenExtChandlerMagicDragonChildren'sCenterPiedPiperPreschoolPilgrimAreaCollab.(Alden)PilgrimAreaCollab.(Chandler)PilgrimAreaCollab.(HighSchool)PilgrimAreaCollab.(Middle)CarverHighSchoolBridgewater/RaynhamRegionalHighSchoolCarverMiddleSchoolSacredHeartEarlyChildhoodSacredHeartElementarySchool PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolHostFacilitySacredHeartHighSchoolBridgewater/RaynhamRegionalHighSchoolSilverLakeRegionalHighSchoolSilverLakeRegionalMiddleSchoolPlymouthNorthHighSchoolBristol PlymouthRegionalTechnicalSchoolColdSpringElementarySchoolCoyleandCassidyHighSchoolHedgeElementarySchoolElizabethPoleSchoolMountPleasantSchoolFriedmanMiddleSchoolGovernorEdwardWinslowSchoolFurnaceBrookSchoolCrayonCollegeInc.HopewellSchoolGardenofKnowledgeKinderKollegeKinderCareRichard'sRoadLeapingFrogsPreschoolMethodistNurserySchoolMissJoAnne'sBrightBegnnngsBeginningsNewTestamentChristianSchoolRisingTideCharterPublicSchoolRoom2GrowNurserySchoolSouthElementarySchoolTinyTownInc.WestElementarySchoolWoodsideSchoolandCommunityResourceCenterFederalFurnaceSchoolJamesL.MulcaheySchoolKinderCarePilgrimHillKinderCareTauntonBrightIdeasPreschoolLeddySchoolChildren'sCreativeLearningCenterPondsChildcareCenterSouthShoreConsPreschoolSouthShoreEarlyEducationNathanielMortonElementarySchoolMartinMiddleSchoolIndianBrookElementarySchoolOurLadyofLourdesElementarySchoolPilgrimAreaCollaborativeTauntonHighSchoolPilgrimChildCare&PreschoolPlymouthCommunityIntermediateSchoolPlymouthSouthHighSchoolPlymouthSouthMiddleSchoolCarverElementarySchoolWilliamsMiddleSchool PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolHostFacilityErwinK.WashburnPrimarySchoolHop,Skip&JumpPreschoolWilliamsMiddleSchoolLearningSafariDayCare&PreschoolOldColonyYMCAPilgrimAcademySmallScholarsPreschool PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemandSub areaFacilityNameMunicipality CapacityCurrentCensus AmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedridden BusRunsWheelchairBusRunsAmbulance 2HighPointTreatmentCenterPlymouth21921016424461223ChiltonHouseInc.Plymouth4240221081143EmeritusPlymouth10197583092253GoldenLivingCenter Plymouth 1Plymouth1351305022582203JordanHospitalPlymouth15514979393133163LifeCareCenterofPlymouth 1Plymouth2132046579603603NewfieldHouse 1Plymouth9591573132303PlymouthCrossingsPlymouth95916841931103RadiusHealthCareNursingHome 1Plymouth2382289896344703StaffordHillAssistedLivingPlymouth1201158562431125TeamWorksPlymouth222112541127BairdCenterGroupHomePlymouth363519971147CommunityConnectionsInc.Plymouth4846315102157CozyCornerADHCLLCPlymouth434128491157HabilitationAssistanceCorporationPlymouth88844026182298WingateatSilverLakeKingston252241127635155269BayPathRehabilitation&NursingCenterDuxbury12011561302432129DuxburyHouseDuxbury232211651139TheVillageAtDuxburyDuxbury6058311512216TOTAL: 2,105 2,0181,10648243047421411. Bedriddenpatientsshelterinplace PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceBusesVansWheelchairBusesAmbulances ResourcesAvailableBloom3315CarverSchools192Whit41Judco7Grata12Brockton7741DuxburySchools48Pembroke77Bill'sTaxi1213Totman13PlymouthSchools109F.S.Mid33Bridge17F.S.Free19E.Bridgewater1SouthShoreHeadstart3MarshfieldFireDepartment2TOTAL: 5029002ResourcesNeededSchools(Table8 2): 41035MedicalFacilities(Table8 4): 4742141TransitDependentPopulation(Table8 10): 73HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5): 2565CorrectionalFacilities(Table8 10): 37TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 5923548146 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1AldenSchool,DuxburyHighSchool,DuxburyMiddleSchool,PilgrimAreaCollaborative,SouthShoreConsPreschool146,499,500,502,501,504,42,43,442DuxburyBayMaritimeSchool,PilgrimChildCare&Preschool145,146,499,500,502,501,504,42,43,443ChandlerElementarySchool,ElementsMontessoriSchool,MagicDragonChildrensCenter672,673,671,505,504,42,43,444BerrybrookSchool,DiscoveryCornerDaycare681,165,166,6755PiedPiperPreschool164,681,165,166,6756BayFarmMontessoriAcademy,GoodShepherdChristianAcademy,CedarHillRetreatConferenceCenterDaycare496,143,142,141,522,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,447BlueRiverMontesorriMontessoriSchool536,148,1498CarverElementarySchool,ErwinK.WashburnPrimarySchool,OldColonyYMCA230,206,229,255,228,227,579LittleCrusaders234,386,38310CarverHighSchool,CarverMiddleSchool423,231,230,206,229,255,228,227,5711CaptPalPreSchool,CranberryCrossingDayCare,KidstopEarlyChildhoodCenter206,229,255,228,227,5712KidsCountDaySchool236,235,229,255,228,227,5713KingstonElementarySchool,KingstonIntermediateSchool,WoodedAcresChildCare289,125,126,127,128,129,130,659,661,660,65814SacredHeartEarlyChildhood,SacredHeartElementarySchool,SacredHeartHighSchool493,252,66215SilverLakeRegionalHighSchool,SilverLakeRegionalMiddleSchool691,560,69216CrayonCollegeInc.121,122,123,124,125,126,127,128,129,130,659,661,660,65817GrowthUnlimitedPreschool,SouthShoreEarlyEducation,LittlePeoplesCountryDay129,130,659,661,660,65818GovernorEdwardWinslowSchool533,528,53219PlymouthSouthHighSchool,PlymouthSouthMiddleSchool680,328,678,592,722,721,714 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary20PlymouthCommunityIntermediateSchool,LearningSafariDayCare&Preschool319,326,318,317,316,321,315,320,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5,721IndianBrookElementarySchool104,105,689,106,107,108,109,110,462,464,463,469,471,172,473,472,173,174,175,176,177,17,8,478,479,67,68,69,70,7122FederalFurnaceSchool,WoodsideSchoolandCommunityResourceCenter247,248,602,234,386,383178,478,479,67,68,69,70,7123ManometElementarySchool98,97,102,103,688,104,105,689,106,107,108,109,110,462,464,463,469,471,172,473,472,173,174,175,176,177,178,478,479,67,68,69,70,7124PlymouthNorthHighSchool312,313,315,320,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5725WestElementarySchool251,667,252,662,253,257,55,56,5726MountPleasantSchool114,314,313,315,320,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5727NathanielMortonElementarySchool,SmallScholarsPreschool114,115,116,117,250,683,629,197,198,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5728SouthElementarySchool,PondsChildcareCenter713,482,48129ColdSpringElementarySchool,HopSkip&JumpPreschool628,197,198,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5730HedgeElementarySchool280,278,263,262,276,51,52,53,54,55,56,5731CrayonCollegeAtPlymouth278,263,262,276,51,52,53,54,55,56,5732GardenofKnowledge94,100,296,298,299,301,300,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5733KinderCareMulberry,KinderCareSuperKids,RisingTideCharterPublicSchool,PilgrimAcademy269,260,261,275,262,276,51,52,53,54,55,56,5734KinderKollege,LeapingFrogsPreschool96,686,99,293,290,291,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,470,172,473,472,173,174,175,176,177,178,478,479,67,68,69,70,7135MethodistNurserySchool243,201,202,251,667,252,662,253,257,55,56,57 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary36NewTestamentChristianSchool331,332,460,10,9,470,172,473,472,173,174,175,176,177,178,478,479,67,68,69,70,7137MissJoAnne'sBrightBegnnngsBeginnings422,663,423,231,230,206,229,255,228,227,5738Room2GrowNurserySchool240,241,593,595,218,197,198,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5739TinyTownInc.104,105,689,106,107,108,109,110,462,464,463,469,471,172,473,472,173,174,175,176,177,178,478,479,67,68,69,70,7140BrightIdeasPreschool330,331,332,460,10,9,470,172,473,472,173,174,175,176,177,178,478,479,67,68,69,70,7141Children'sCreativeLearningCenter596,595,218,197,198,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5742HighPointTreatmentCenter104,105,689,106,107,108,109,110,462,464,463,469,471,172,473,472,173,174,175,176,177,178,478,479,67,68,69,70,7143JordanHospital,GoldenLivingCenter Plymouth312,313,315,320,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5744TheVillageAtDuxbury,BayPathRehabilitation&NursingCenter,DuxburyHouse672,673,671,505,504,42,43,4445BairdCenterGroupHome,HabilitationAssistanceCorporation635,669,121,122,123,124,125,126,127,128,129,130,659,661,660,65846ChiltonHouseInc116,117,250,683,629,197,198,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5747CommunityConnectionsInc279,269,260,261,275,262,276,51,52,53,54,55,56,5748CozyCornerADHCLLC280,119,120,635,669,121,122,123,124,125,126,127,128,129,130,659,661,660,65849Emeritus112,113,114,115,116,117,250,683,629,197,198,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5750LifeCareCenterofPlymouth,PlymouthCrossings313,315,320,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5751NewfieldHouse241,593,595,218,197,198,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,5752RadiusHealthCareNursingHome,StaffordHillAssistedLiving314,313,315,320,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary53TeamWorks378,379,7354WingateatSilverLake560,692,56155TransitDependentRouteSub area1622,95,96,686,99,293,290,291,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,470,172,473,472,173,174,175,176,177,178,478,479,67,68,69,70,7156TransitDependentRouteSub area296,687,97,102,103,688,104,105,689,106,107,108,109,110,462,464,463,469,471,172,473,472,173,174,175,176,177,178,478,479,67,68,69,70,7157TransitDependentRouteSub area3111,112,113,312,313,315,321,316,317,318,326,319,327,322,303,328,678,592,722,721,714,694,249,248,602,234,386,38358TransitDependentRouteSub area4498,497,146,499,500,502,501,504,42,43,4459TransitDependentRouteSub area5680,292,698,329,336,337,338,339,340,664,34160TransitDependentRouteSub area6243,201,244,245,424,422,663,423,231,230,206,229,255,228,227,5761TransitDependentRouteSub area7202,251,667,252,662,253,257,55,56,5762TransitDependentRouteSub area8122,123,124,125,126,127,128,129,130,659,661,660,65863TransitDependentRouteSub area9518,496,143,142,141,522,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,4464TransitDependentRouteSub area10535,524,52565TransitDependentRouteSub area11234,233,232,231,230,206,229,255,228,227,57 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)AfterSchoolClubAlden90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35AldenSchool90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35BayFarmMontessoriAcademy90157.140.0112:0017.7272:25BerrybrookSchool90157.140.0112:0017.7272:25BlueRiverMontesorriMontessoriSchool90150.727.021:5020.7322:20BreakfastClubChandler90155.717.1212:1017.7272:35BrightIdeasPreschool901512.519.5392:2528.7443:10CaptPalPreSchool90152.14.2302:1516.2252:40CarverElementarySchool90153.25.1382:2516.2252:50CarverHighSchool90154.87.3402:2516.2252:50CarverMiddleSchool90154.87.3402:2516.2252:50CedarhillRetreatConferenceCenterDaycare90157.140.0112:0017.7272:25ChandlerElementarySchool90155.717.1212:1017.7272:35Children'sCreativeLearningCenter90158.69.8532:4016.2253:05ColdSpringElementarySchool90158.810.0532:4016.2253:05CranberryCrossingDayCare90152.14.2302:1516.2252:40CrayonCollegeAtPlymouth90157.28.2532:4016.2253:05CrayonCollegeInc.90155.340.081:5510.6162:10DiscoveryCornerDaycare90153.612.0192:0519.3292:35DuxburyBayMaritimeSchool90156.64.8833:1017.7273:35DuxburyHighSchool90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35DuxburyMiddleSchool90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35ElementsMontessoriSchool90155.717.1212:1017.7272:35ErwinK.WashburnPrimarySchool90153.25.1382:2516.2252:50FederalFurnaceSchool90155.912.3292:1522.1342:50GardenofKnowledge901512.713.1592:4518.5283:15GoodShepherdChristianAcademy90157.240.0112:0017.7272:25GovernorEdwardWinslowSchool90150.240.011:504.371:55 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)GrowthUnlimitedPreschool90153.440.061:5510.6162:10HedgeElementarySchool90157.58.9512:4016.2253:05Hop,Skip&JumpPreschool90158.510.0522:4017.2263:05IndianBrookElementarySchool901515.916.4592:4528.6433:30JuniorClubChandler90155.717.1212:1017.7272:35KidsCountDaySchool90150.62.2182:0516.2252:30KidstopEarlyChildhoodCenter90152.14.2302:1516.2252:40KinderKollege901519.640.0302:1530.6463:05KinderCarePilgrimHill90156.79.8412:3016.2252:55KinderCareRichard'sRoad90157.08.2522:4016.2253:05KindergartenExtChandler901517.123.6442:3017.7273:00KingstonElementarySchool90154.440.071:5510.6162:10KingstonIntermediateSchool90154.440.071:5510.6162:10LeapingFrogsPreschool901519.540.0302:1530.6463:05LearningSafariDayCare&Preschool901534.619.21083:3550.6764:50LittlePeoplesCountryDay901534.240.0522:4010.6162:55MagicDragonChildren'sCenter901517.123.6442:3017.7273:00ManometElementarySchool901518.212.9853:1031.5484:00MethodistNurserySchool90156.79.8422:3016.2252:55MissJoAnne'sBrightBegnnngsBeginnings90156.89.8422:3016.2252:55MountPleasantSchool901511.411.7592:4516.2253:10NathanielMortonElementarySchool90156.89.2452:3014.2222:55NewTestamentChristianSchool901510.434.4192:0530.6462:50OldColonyYMCA90153.25.1382:2516.2252:50PiedPiperPreschool90153.616.0142:0019.3292:30PilgrimAcademy90154.18.7292:1522.4342:50PilgrimAreaCollab.(Alden)90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35PilgrimAreaCollab.(Chandler)901517.123.6442:3017.7273:00PilgrimAreaCollab.(HighSchool)90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)PilgrimAreaCollab.(Middle)90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35PilgrimAreaCollaborative90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35PilgrimChildCare&Preschool90156.64.8833:1017.7273:35PlymouthCommunityIntermediateSchool901510.911.4582:4514.8233:10PlymouthNorthHighSchool901510.611.5562:4516.2253:10PlymouthSouthHighSchool901511.330.9222:1019.9302:40PlymouthSouthMiddleSchool901511.330.9222:1019.9302:40PondsChlidcareCenter901511.317.8392:2519.9302:55RisingTideCharterPublicSchool90157.08.2522:4016.2253:05Room2GrowNurserySchool90159.110.3532:4016.2253:05SacredHeartEarlyChildhood90154.836.581:5516.2252:20SacredHeartElementarySchool90154.836.581:5516.2252:20SacredHeartHighSchool90154.836.581:5516.2252:20SilverLakeRegionalHighSchool90151.135.021:5013.0202:10SilverLakeRegionalMiddleSchool90151.135.021:5013.0202:10SouthElementarySchool90153.036.451:5028.1432:35SouthShoreConsPreschool90155.64.2813:1017.7273:35SouthShoreEarlyEducation90153.540.061:5510.6162:10SmallScholarsPreschool90151.49.0101:553.562:05TinyTownInc.901515.716.4582:4530.6463:30WestElementarySchool90155.38.5382:2516.2252:50WoodedAcresChildCare90154.440.071:5510.6162:10WoodsideSchoolandCommunityResourceCenter90155.912.3292:1522.1342:50MaximumforEPZ:3:35Maximum:4:50AverageforEPZ:2:25Average:2:55 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)AfterSchoolClubAlden100205.64.5753:1517.7313:50AldenSchool100205.64.5753:1517.7313:50BayFarmMontessoriAcademy100207.138.2122:1517.7312:45BerrybrookSchool100207.138.2122:1517.7312:45BlueRiverMontesorriSchool100200.726.922:0520.7362:40BreakfastClubChandler100205.725.2142:1517.7312:45BrightIdeasPreschool1002012.519.6392:4028.7503:30CaptPalPreSchool100202.14.5292:3016.2283:00CarverElementarySchool100203.25.9322:3516.2283:00CarverHighSchool100204.88.3352:3516.2283:05CarverMiddleSchool100204.88.3352:3516.2283:05CedarhillRetreatConferenceCenterDaycare100207.138.2122:1517.7312:45ChandlerElementarySchool100205.725.2142:1517.7312:45Children'sCreativeLearningCenter100208.610.5502:5016.2283:20ColdSpringElementarySchool100208.810.7502:5016.2283:20CranberryCrossingDayCare100202.14.5292:3016.2283:00CrayonCollegeAtPlymouth100207.28.8502:5016.2283:20CrayonCollegeInc.100205.340.082:1010.6192:30DiscoveryCornerDaycare100203.65.1432:4519.3343:20DuxburyBayMaritimeSchool100206.65.5733:1517.7313:45DuxburyHighSchool100205.64.5753:1517.7313:50DuxburyMiddleSchool100205.64.5753:1517.7313:50ElementsMontessoriSchool100205.725.2142:1517.7312:45ErwinK.WashburnPrimarySchool100203.25.9322:3516.2283:00FederalFurnaceSchool100205.918.5202:2022.1383:00GardenofKnowledge1002012.713.9552:5518.5323:30GoodShepherdChristianAcademy100207.238.2122:1517.7312:45GovernorEdwardWinslowSchool100200.240.012:054.382:10 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)GrowthUnlimitedPreschool100203.440.062:1010.6192:25HedgeElementarySchool100207.59.6472:5016.2283:15Hop,Skip&JumpPreschool100208.510.5492:5017.2303:20IndianBrookElementarySchool1002015.917.5552:5528.6503:45JuniorClubChandler100205.725.2142:1517.7312:45KidsCountDaySchool100200.62.9142:1516.2282:45KidstopEarlyChildhoodCenter100202.14.5292:3016.2283:00KinderKollege1002019.640.0302:3030.6533:25KinderCarePilgrimHill100206.710.7382:4016.2283:10KinderCareRichard'sRoad100207.08.9482:5016.2283:20KindergartenExtChandler1002017.129.5352:3517.7313:10KingstonElementarySchool100204.440.072:1010.6192:30KingstonIntermediateSchool100204.440.072:1010.6192:30LeapingFrogsPreschool1002019.540.0302:3030.6533:25LearningSafariDayCare&Preschool1002034.621.6973:4050.6875:05LittlePeoplesCountryDay1002034.240.0522:5510.6193:15MagicDragonChildrensCenter1002017.129.5352:3517.7313:10ManometElementarySchool1002018.214.8743:1531.5544:10MethodistNurserySchool100206.710.7382:4016.2283:10MissJoAnne'sBrightBegnnngsBeginnings100206.811.6362:4016.2283:05MountPleasantSchool1002011.412.6552:5516.2283:25NathanielMortonElementarySchool100206.810.5392:4014.2253:05NewTestamentChristianSchool1002010.434.0192:2030.6533:15OldColonyYMCA100203.25.9322:3516.2283:00PiedPiperPreschool100203.66.0372:4019.3343:15PilgrimAcademy100204.17.8322:3522.4393:15PilgrimAreaCollab.(Alden)100205.64.5753:1517.7313:50PilgrimAreaCollab.(Chandler)1002017.129.5352:3517.7313:10PilgrimAreaCollab.(HighSchool)100205.64.5753:1517.7313:50 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)PilgrimAreaCollab.(Middle)100205.64.5753:1517.7313:50PilgrimAreaCollaborative100205.64.5753:1517.7313:50PilgrimChildCare&Preschool100206.65.5733:1517.7313:45PlymouthCommunityIntermediateSchool1002010.912.3542:5514.8263:20PlymouthNorthHighSchool1002010.612.3522:5516.2283:20PlymouthSouthHighSchool1002011.329.7232:2519.9353:00PlymouthSouthMiddleSchool1002011.329.7232:2519.9353:00PondsChlidcareCenter1002011.325.1282:3019.9353:05RisingTideCharterPublicSchool100207.08.9482:5016.2283:20Room2GrowNurserySchool100209.111.0502:5016.2283:20SacredHeartEarlyChildhood100204.835.892:1016.2282:40SacredHeartElementarySchool100204.835.892:1016.2282:40SacredHeartHighSchool100204.835.892:1016.2282:40SilverLakeRegionalHighSchool100201.135.022:0513.0232:25SilverLakeRegionalMiddleSchool100201.135.022:0513.0232:25SouthElementarySchool100203.036.752:0528.1492:55SouthShoreConsPreschool100205.64.5753:1517.7313:50SouthShoreEarlyEducation100203.540.062:1010.6192:25SmallScholarsPreschool100201.49.5102:103.562:20TinyTownInc.1002015.717.2552:5530.6533:50WestElementarySchool100205.38.4392:4016.2283:10WoodedAcresChildCare100204.440.072:1010.6192:30WoodsideSchoolandCommunityResourceCenter100205.918.5202:2022.1383:00MaximumforEPZ:3:40Maximum:5:05AverageforEPZ:2:40Average:3:10 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnowSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)AfterSchoolClubAlden110255.65.2653:2017.7364:00AldenSchool110255.65.2653:2017.7364:00BayFarmMontessoriAcademy110257.138.7122:3017.7363:05BerrybrookSchool110257.138.7122:3017.7363:05BlueRiverMontesorriMontessoriSchool110250.728.622:2020.7423:00BreakfastClubChandler110255.730.1122:3017.7363:05BrightIdeasPreschool1102512.519.7392:5528.7583:55CaptPalPreSchool110252.15.0262:4516.2333:15CarverElementarySchool110253.27.5262:4516.2333:15CarverHighSchool110254.810.2292:4516.2333:20CarverMiddleSchool110254.810.2292:4516.2333:20CedarhillRetreatConferenceCenterDaycare110257.138.7112:3017.7363:05ChandlerElementarySchool110255.730.1122:3017.7363:05Children'sCreativeLearningCenter110258.611.5453:0016.2333:35ColdSpringElementarySchool110258.811.7453:0016.2333:35CranberryCrossingDayCare110252.15.0262:4516.2333:15CrayonCollegeAtPlymouth110257.210.0443:0016.2333:35CrayonCollegeInc.110255.340.082:2510.6222:45DiscoveryCornerDaycare110253.69.7232:4019.3393:20DuxburyBayMaritimeSchool110256.65.9673:2517.7364:00DuxburyHighSchool110255.65.2653:2017.7364:00DuxburyMiddleSchool110255.65.2653:2017.7364:00ElementsMontessoriSchool110255.730.1122:3017.7363:05ErwinK.WashburnPrimarySchool110253.27.5262:4516.2333:15FederalFurnaceSchool110255.936.1102:2522.1453:10GardenofKnowledge1102512.716.1483:0518.5373:40GoodShepherdChristianAcademy110257.238.7122:3017.7363:05GovernorEdwardWinslowSchool110250.240.012:204.392:25 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)GrowthUnlimitedPreschool110253.440.062:2510.6222:45HedgeElementarySchool110257.510.4443:0016.2333:35Hop,Skip&JumpPreschool110258.511.7443:0017.2353:35IndianBrookElementarySchool1102515.917.8543:1028.6584:10JuniorClubChandler110255.730.1122:3017.7363:05KidsCountDaySchool110250.63.3122:3016.2333:00KidstopEarlyChildhoodCenter110252.15.0262:4516.2333:15KinderKollege1102519.640.0302:4530.6623:50KinderCarePilgrimHill110256.710.8382:5516.2333:30KinderCareRichard'sRoad110257.09.6443:0016.2333:35KindergartenExtChandler1102517.134.3302:4517.7363:25KingstonElementarySchool110254.440.072:2510.6222:45KingstonIntermediateSchool110254.440.072:2510.6222:45LeapingFrogsPreschool1102519.540.0302:4530.6623:50LearningSafariDayCare&Preschool1102534.624.5853:4050.61025:25LittlePeoplesCountryDay1102534.240.0523:1010.6223:30MagicDragonChildrensCenter1102517.134.3302:4517.7363:25ManometElementarySchool1102518.216.4673:2531.5634:25MethodistNurserySchool110256.710.8382:5516.2333:30MissJoAnne'sBrightBegnnngsBeginnings110256.813.7302:4516.2333:20MountPleasantSchool1102511.414.6483:0516.2333:40NathanielMortonElementarySchool110256.811.5362:5514.2293:20NewTestamentChristianSchool1102510.434.4192:3530.6623:40OldColonyYMCA110253.27.5262:4516.2333:15PiedPiperPreschool110253.610.9212:4019.3393:15PilgrimAcademy110254.18.9282:4522.4453:30PilgrimAreaCollab.(Alden)110255.65.2653:2017.7364:00PilgrimAreaCollab.(Chandler)1102517.134.3302:4517.7363:25PilgrimAreaCollab.(HighSchool)110255.65.2653:2017.7364:00 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)PilgrimAreaCollab.(Middle)110255.65.2653:2017.7364:00PilgrimAreaCollaborative110255.65.2653:2017.7364:00PilgrimChildCare&Preschool110256.65.9673:2517.7364:00PlymouthCommunityIntermediateSchool1102510.914.3463:0514.8303:35PlymouthNorthHighSchool1102510.614.3453:0016.2333:35PlymouthSouthHighSchool1102511.332.1222:4019.9403:20PlymouthSouthMiddleSchool1102511.332.1222:4019.9403:20PondsChlidcareCenter1102511.337.1192:3519.9403:15RisingTideCharterPublicSchool110257.09.6443:0016.2333:35Room2GrowNurserySchool110259.112.6443:0016.2333:35SacredHeartEarlyChildhood110254.836.682:2516.2333:00SacredHeartElementarySchool110254.836.682:2516.2333:00SacredHeartHighSchool110254.836.682:2516.2333:00SilverLakeRegionalHighSchool110251.135.022:2013.0262:45SilverLakeRegionalMiddleSchool110251.135.022:2013.0262:45SouthElementarySchool110253.036.652:2028.1573:20SouthShoreConsPreschool110255.65.2653:2017.7364:00SouthShoreEarlyEducation110253.540.062:2510.6222:45SmallScholarsPreschool110251.48.9102:253.572:35TinyTownInc.1102515.717.8533:1030.6624:10WestElementarySchool110255.39.6342:5016.2333:25WoodedAcresChildCare110254.440.072:2510.6222:45WoodsideSchoolandCommunityResourceCenter110255.936.1102:2522.1453:10MaximumforEPZ:3:40Maximum:5:25AverageforEPZ:2:50Average:3:25 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutesRouteRouteDescriptionLength(mi.)No.ofBusesTransitDependentResidents1Sub area1toTauntonHighSchoolReceptionCenter25.632Sub area2toTauntonHighSchoolReceptionCenter25.373Sub area3toTauntonHighSchoolReceptionCenter22.094Sub area4toBraintreeHighSchoolReceptionCenter7.115Sub area5toTauntonHighSchoolReceptionCenter25.2126Sub area6toTauntonHighSchoolReceptionCenter21.567Sub area7toBridgewaterStateUniversityReceptionCenter8.978Sub area8toBridgewaterStateUniversityReceptionCenter22.3109Sub area9toBraintreeHighSchoolReceptionCenter44.31210Sub area10toBraintreeHighSchoolReceptionCenter7.1211Sub area11toBridgewaterStateUniversityReceptionCenter35.54TransitDependentResidentSubtotal: 73CorrectionalFacilitiesN/APlymouthCountyCorrectionalFacility10.732N/AMCIPlymouth6.95CorrectionalFacilitySubtotal: 37Total: 110 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)119025.637.241302:4527.34151079305:302,311025.640.038303:0027.34151079305:4521,29025.313.4113303:5527.34151079306:403,410025.314.5105303:5527.34151079306:405,6,711025.315.797304:0027.34151079306:4531,2,39022.016.879303:2020.13051063305:404,5,610022.018.073303:2520.13051063305:457,8,911022.019.169303:3020.13051063305:5041907.14.987303:3017.72751037305:2051,2,39025.215.1100303:4029.74551082306:354,5,69525.215.598303:4529.74551082306:357,8,910025.215.995303:5029.74551082306:4010,11,1211025.217.885303:4529.74551082306:4061,2,39021.513.695303:3514.82251054305:404,5,611021.515.683303:4514.82251054305:4571,2908.99.357303:0014.42251035304:403,41008.99.258303:1014.42251035304:505,6,71108.99.854303:1514.42251035305:0081,29022.340.033302:3513.72151054304:353,49522.340.033302:4013.72151054304:405,6,710022.340.033302:4513.72151054304:458,9,1011022.340.033302:5513.72151054304:5591,2,39044.339.467303:1017.72751093305:554,5,69544.339.467303:1517.72751093306:00 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)7,8,910044.339.467303:2017.72751093306:0510,11,1211044.339.467303:3017.72751093306:15101907.135.912302:1523.83651047304:2021107.136.612302:3523.83651047304:40111,29035.516.8127304:1014.42251075306:303,411035.519.3111304:1514.42251075306:35MaximumETE:4:15MaximumETE:6:45AverageETE:3:25AverageETE:5:45 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)1110025.632.547403:1027.34751089406:202,312025.635.943403:2527.34751089406:3521,210025.312.1125404:2527.34751089407:403,411025.313.2115404:2527.34751089407:405,6,712025.313.8110404:3027.34751089407:4531,2,310022.021.462403:2520.13451071406:054,5,611022.021.262403:3520.13451071406:157,8,912022.022.658403:4020.13451071406:20411007.14.0107404:1017.73051042406:1551,2,310025.213.7110404:1529.75151093407:304,5,610525.214.0108404:1529.75151093407:357,8,911025.214.3106404:2029.75151093407:3510,11,1212025.215.498404:2029.75151093407:4041,2,310021.513.199404:0014.82551061406:254,5,612021.514.390404:1014.82551061406:3571,21008.98.563403:2514.42551040405:253,41108.99.060403:3014.42551040405:305,6,71208.99.158403:4014.42551040405:4081,210022.336.037403:0013.72351061405:203,410522.336.037403:0513.72351061405:255,6,711022.336.037403:1013.72351061405:308,9,1012022.336.037403:2013.72351061405:4091,2,310044.333.978403:4017.730510104406:504,5,610544.333.978403:4517.730510104406:55 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)7,8,911044.333.978403:5017.730510104407:0010,11,1212044.333.978404:0017.730510104407:101011007.133.113402:3523.84151053405:0521207.132.413402:5523.84151053405:25111,210035.515.6136404:4014.42551084407:203,412035.517.6121404:4514.42551084407:25MaximumETE:4:45MaximumETE:7:45AverageETE:3:50AverageETE:6:35 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnowRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)Route TravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)1111025.631.848503:3027.355510103507:152,313025.632.048503:5027.355510103507:3521,211025.313.2115504:3527.355510102508:203,412025.313.8110504:4027.355510102508:255,6,713025.314.9102504:4527.355510102508:2531,2,311022.021.262503:4520.14051081506:504,5,612022.022.658503:5020.14051081507:007,8,913022.023.456504:0020.14051081507:05411107.14.1104504:2517.73551049506:5551,2,311025.214.2107504:3029.759510107508:204,5,611525.215.1100504:3029.759510107508:207,8,912025.215.399504:3029.759510107508:2010,11,1213025.216.592504:3529.759510107508:2541,2,311021.513.893504:1514.83051070507:004,5,613021.515.384504:2514.83051070507:1071,21108.99.060503:4014.42951045506:003,41208.99.158503:5014.42951045506:105,6,71308.98.761504:0514.42951045506:2581,211022.332.042503:2513.72751069506:053,411522.332.042503:3013.72751069506:105,6,712022.332.042503:3513.72751069506:158,9,1013022.332.042503:4513.72751069506:2591,2,311044.331.983504:0517.735510118507:454,5,611544.331.983504:1017.735510118507:50 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)Route TravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)7,8,912044.331.983504:1517.735510118507:5510,11,1213044.331.983504:2517.735510118508:051011107.132.013502:5523.84851061505:5021307.132.013503:1523.84851061506:10111,211035.516.2131504:5514.42951095508:053,413035.518.3116505:0014.42951095508:10MaximumETE:5:00MaximumETE:8:25AverageETE:4:05AverageETE:7:20 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table814.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)BairdCenterGroupHomeAmbulatory90119195.792:00Wheelchairbound9059455.792:25Bedridden90157305.782:10BayPathRehabilitation&NursingCenterAmbulatory90161305.6132:15Wheelchairbound90530755.682:55Bedridden901524305.6132:15ChiltonHouseIncAmbulatory90122228.8512:45Wheelchairbound90510508.8423:05Bedridden90158308.8492:50CommunityConnectionsIncAmbulatory90131307.1452:45Wheelchairbound9055257.1462:45Bedridden901510307.1452:45CozyCornerADHCLLCAmbulatory90128287.0112:10Wheelchairbound9054207.0112:05Bedridden90159307.0112:15DuxburyHouseAmbulatory90111115.6202:05Wheelchairbound9056305.6132:15Bedridden90155305.6132:15EmeritusAmbulatory901583010.9532:55Wheelchairbound905307510.9293:15Bedridden901593010.9532:55GoldenLivingCenter PlymouthAmbulatory901503011.1542:55Wheelchairbound905227511.1283:15Bedridden9015583011.1542:55HabilitationAmbulatory90140305.792:10 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)AssistanceCorporationWheelchairbound90526755.792:55Bedridden901518305.782:10HighPointTreatmentCenterAmbulatory9011643018.3623:05Wheelchairbound90521018.3682:50Bedridden9015443018.3623:05JordanHospitalAmbulatory901793011.1542:55Wheelchairbound905397511.1283:15Bedridden9015313011.1542:55LifeCareCenterofPlymouthAmbulatory901653010.2522:55Wheelchairbound905797510.2293:15Bedridden9015603010.2522:55NewfieldHouseAmbulatory90157309.0502:50Wheelchairbound90531759.0283:15Bedridden90153309.0502:50PlymouthCrossingsAmbulatory901683010.2522:55Wheelchairbound90542010.2542:45Bedridden9015193010.2522:55RadiusHealthCareNursingHomeAmbulatory901983010.5522:55Wheelchairbound905967510.5293:15Bedridden9015343010.5522:55StaffordHillAssistedLivingAmbulatory901853010.5522:55Wheelchairbound90563010.5522:55Bedridden9015243010.5522:55TeamWorksAmbulatory90112122.851:50Wheelchairbound9055252.852:00Bedridden90154302.852:05 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)TheVillageAtDuxburyAmbulatory90131305.6132:15Wheelchairbound90515755.682:55Bedridden901512305.6132:15WingateatSilverLakeAmbulatory901127300.712:05Wheelchairbound90563750.712:50Bedridden901551300.712:05MaximumETE:3:05AverageETE:2:30 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table815.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)BairdCenterGroupHomeAmbulatory100119195.7102:10Wheelchairbound10059455.7102:35Bedridden100157305.782:20BayPathRehabilitation&NursingCenterAmbulatory100161305.6282:40Wheelchairbound100530755.693:05Bedridden1001524305.6282:40ChiltonHouseIncAmbulatory100122228.8593:05Wheelchairbound100510508.8493:20Bedridden100158308.8593:10CommunityConnectionsIncAmbulatory100131307.1553:05Wheelchairbound10055257.1543:00Bedridden1001510307.1553:05CozyCornerADHCLLCAmbulatory100128287.0122:20Wheelchairbound10054207.0122:15Bedridden100159307.0112:25DuxburyHouseAmbulatory100111115.6342:25Wheelchairbound10056305.6282:40Bedridden100155305.6282:40EmeritusAmbulatory1001583010.9623:15Wheelchairbound1005307510.9383:35Bedridden1001593010.9623:15GoldenLivingCenter PlymouthAmbulatory1001503011.1643:15Wheelchairbound1005227511.1373:35Bedridden10015583011.1643:15HabilitationAmbulatory100140305.7102:20 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)AssistanceCorporationWheelchairbound100526755.7103:05Bedridden1001518305.782:20HighPointTreatmentCenterAmbulatory10011643018.3703:20Wheelchairbound100521018.3723:05Bedridden10015443018.3703:20JordanHospitalAmbulatory1001793011.1643:15Wheelchairbound1005397511.1373:35Bedridden10015313011.1643:15LifeCareCenterofPlymouthAmbulatory1001653010.2613:15Wheelchairbound1005797510.2383:35Bedridden10015603010.2613:15NewfieldHouseAmbulatory100157309.0603:10Wheelchairbound100531759.0383:35Bedridden100153309.0603:10PlymouthCrossingsAmbulatory1001683010.2613:15Wheelchairbound100542010.2653:05Bedridden10015193010.2613:15RadiusHealthCareNursingHomeAmbulatory1001983010.5613:15Wheelchairbound1005967510.5383:35Bedridden10015343010.5613:15StaffordHillAssistedLivingAmbulatory1001853010.5613:15Wheelchairbound100563010.5613:15Bedridden10015243010.5613:15TeamWorksAmbulatory100112122.862:00Wheelchairbound10055252.862:15Bedridden100154302.862:20 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)TheVillageAtDuxburyAmbulatory100131305.6282:40Wheelchairbound100515755.693:05Bedridden1001512305.6282:40WingateatSilverLakeAmbulatory1001127300.712:15Wheelchairbound100563750.713:00Bedridden1001551300.712:15MaximumETE:3:20AverageETE:2:45 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table816.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnowMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)BairdCenterGroupHomeAmbulatory110119195.7112:20Wheelchairbound11059455.7112:50Bedridden110157305.782:35BayPathRehabilitation&NursingCenterAmbulatory110161305.6112:35Wheelchairbound110530755.6113:20Bedridden1101524305.6112:35ChiltonHouseIncAmbulatory110122228.8453:00Wheelchairbound110510508.8283:10Bedridden110158308.8423:05CommunityConnectionsIncAmbulatory110131307.1403:00Wheelchairbound11055257.1413:00Bedridden1101510307.1403:00CozyCornerADHCLLCAmbulatory110128287.0132:35Wheelchairbound11054207.0132:25Bedridden110159307.0112:35DuxburyHouseAmbulatory110111115.6122:15Wheelchairbound11056305.6112:35Bedridden110155305.6112:35EmeritusAmbulatory1101583010.9453:05Wheelchairbound1105307510.9203:25Bedridden1101593010.9453:05GoldenLivingCenter PlymouthAmbulatory1101503011.1453:05Wheelchairbound1105227511.1213:30Bedridden11015583011.1453:05HabilitationAmbulatory110140305.7112:35 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 50KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)AssistanceCorporationWheelchairbound110526755.7113:20Bedridden1101518305.782:30HighPointTreatmentCenterAmbulatory11011643018.3593:20Wheelchairbound110521018.3623:05Bedridden11015443018.3593:20JordanHospitalAmbulatory1101793011.1453:05Wheelchairbound1105397511.1213:30Bedridden11015313011.1453:05LifeCareCenterofPlymouthAmbulatory1101653010.2433:05Wheelchairbound1105797510.2193:25Bedridden11015603010.2433:05NewfieldHouseAmbulatory110157309.0433:05Wheelchairbound110531759.0173:25Bedridden110153309.0433:05PlymouthCrossingsAmbulatory1101683010.2433:05Wheelchairbound110542010.2483:00Bedridden11015193010.2433:05RadiusHealthCareNursingHomeAmbulatory1101983010.5433:05Wheelchairbound1105967510.5203:25Bedridden11015343010.5433:05StaffordHillAssistedLivingAmbulatory1101853010.5433:05Wheelchairbound110563010.5433:05Bedridden11015243010.5433:05TeamWorksAmbulatory110112122.852:10Wheelchairbound11055252.852:20Bedridden110154302.852:25 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 51KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)TheVillageAtDuxburyAmbulatory110131305.6112:35Wheelchairbound110515755.6113:20Bedridden1101512305.6112:35WingateatSilverLakeAmbulatory1101127300.712:25Wheelchairbound110563750.713:10Bedridden1101551300.712:25MaximumETE:3:20AverageETE:2:50 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 52KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table817.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimatesVehicleTypePeopleRequiringVehicleVehiclesdeployedStopsWeatherConditionsMobiliza tionTime(min)LoadingTimeat1 stStop(min)TraveltoSubsequentStops(min)TotalLoadingTimeatSubsequentStops(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)Buses2282510Normal9058145133:55Rain10090154:15Snow11099164:35WheelchairBuses59610Normal9058145133:55Rain10090154:15Snow11099164:35Ambulances952Normal3015101581:20Rain4011101:35Snow501391:45MaximumETE:4:35AverageETE:3:35 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation8 53KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table818.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforCorrectionalFacilitiesFacilityPeopleRequiringVehicleBusesNeededWeatherConditionsDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTimeperBus(min)TotalLoadingTime(min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETE(hr:min)PlymouthCountyCorrectionalFacility1,60032Normal901596737.0113:20Rain10033.6133:30Snow11028.7153:45MCIPlymouth2205Normal90151558.4362:25Rain1007.8382:35Snow1107.8382:45MaximumETE:3:45AverageETE:3:05 PilgrimNuclearPowerStation9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).* TrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.ThesedevicesshouldcomplywiththeguidanceoftheManualofUniformTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.AllstatetransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisavailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. FacilitateevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Theterms"facilitate"and"discourage"areemployedratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forex ample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR 7002.2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.Thisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionstha texperiencepronouncedcongestion.AnycriticalintersectionsthatarenotidentifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandACPs3. Afieldsurveyofthehighwaynetworkwithin15milesofthepowerplant.TheschematicsdescribingtrafficandaccesscontrolatsuggestedadditionalTCPsandACPs,whicharepresentedinAppendixG,arebasedondatacollectedduringfieldsurveys,uponlargescalemaps,andonoverheadphotos.4. Consultationwithemergencymanagementandlawenforcementpersonnel.TrainedpersonnelwhoareexperiencedincontrollingtrafficandareawareofthelikelyevacuationtrafficpatternsshouldreviewthecontroltacticsatthesuggestedadditionalTCPsandACPs.5. PrioritizationofTCP sandACPs.ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandACPswillhaveamorepronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmovementsthanatotherTCPsandACPs.Forexampl e,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromthepowerplant.Theseprioritiesshouldbeassignedbystateemergencymanagementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.Itisrecommendedth atthecontroltacticsidentifiedintheschematicsinAppendixGbereviewedbythestateemergencyplanners,andlocalandstatepolice.SpecificallythenumberandlocationsofthesuggestedTCPsandACPsshouldbereviewedindetail,andtheindicatedresourcerequirementsshouldbereconciledwit hcurrentassets.TheuseofIntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)technologiescanreducemanpowerandequipmentneeds,whilestillfacilitatingtheevacuationprocess.DynamicMessageSigns(DMS)canbeplacedwithintheEPZtoprovideinformationtotravelersregardingtrafficconditions,routeselection,andreceptioncenterinformation.DMScanalsobeplacedoutsid eoftheEPZtowarnmotoriststoavoidusingroutesthatmayconflictwiththeflowofevacueesawayfromthepowerplant.HighwayAdvisoryRadio(HAR)canbeusedtobroadcastinformationtoevacueesenroutethroughtheirvehiclestereosystems.AutomatedTravelerInformationSystems(ATIS)canalsobeusedtoprovideevacueeswithinformation.Internetwebsitescanprovidetrafficandevacuationrouteinformationbeforetheevacueebeginshistrip,whileonboardnavigationsystems(GPSunits),cellphones,andpagerscanbeusedtoprovideinformationenroute.TheseareonlyseveralexamplesofhowITStechnologiescanbenefittheevacuationprocess.ConsiderationshouldbegiventhatITStechnologiesbeusedtofacilitatetheevacuati onprocess,andanyadditionalsignageplacedshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsite PilgrimNuclearPowerStation9 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1agencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.Chapters2Nand5G,andPart6ofthe2009MUTCDareparticularlyrelevantandshouldbereviewedduringemergencyresponsetraining.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"externalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter2hourshaveelapsedfromtheATE.AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningACPsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussACPandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* Routingfromasub areabeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsu chawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersorhostfacilitiesisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1andFigure10 2presentmapsshowingthegeneralpopulationreceptioncentersandschoolhostfacilitiesforevacuees.ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 3.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriatehostfacilityan dsubsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transitdependentevacueesaretransportedtothenearesthostfacilityforeachtown.Thisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstomasscareshelters,ifthetownsdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandSchoolHostFacilities PilgrimNuclearPowerStation10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.BridgewaterandTauntonReceptionCentersandHostFacilities PilgrimNuclearPowerStation10 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 3.EvacuationRouteMap PilgrimNuclearPowerStation11 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.111 SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONSThereisaneedforsurveillanceoftrafficoperationsduringtheevacuation.Thereisalsoaneedtoclearanyblockageofroadwaysarisingfromaccidentsorvehicledisablement.Surveillancecantakeseveralforms.1. Trafficcontrolpersonnel,locatedatTrafficControlandAccessControlpoints,providefixed pointsurveillance.2. Groundpatrolsmaybeundertakenalongwell definedpathstoensurecoverageofthosehighwaysthatserveasmajorevacuationroutes.3. Aerialsurveillanceofevacuationoperationsmayalsobeconductedusinghelicopterorfixed wingaircraft,ifavailable.4. Cellularphonecalls(ifcellularcoverageexists)frommotoristsmayalsoprovidedirectfieldreportsofroadblockages.TheseconcurrentsurveillanceproceduresaredesignedtoprovidecoverageoftheentireEPZaswellastheareaarounditsperiphery.ItistheresponsibilityoftheTownstosupportanemergencyresponsesystemthatcanreceivemessagesfromthefieldandbeinapositiontorespondtoanyreportedproblemsinatimelymanner.Thiscoverageshouldquic klyidentify,andexpeditetheresponsetoanyblockagecausedbyadisabledvehicle.TowVehiclesInalow speedtrafficenvironment,anyvehicledisablementislikelytoariseduetoalow speedcollision,mechanicalfailureortheexhaustionofitsfuelsupply.Inanycase,thedisabledvehiclecanbepushedontotheshoulder,therebyrestoringtrafficflow.Pastexperienceinotheremergenciesindicatesthatevacueeswhoareleavinganareaoftenperformactivitiessuchaspushingadisabledvehicletothesideoftheroadwithoutprom pting.Whiletheneedfortowvehiclesisexpectedtobelowunderthecircumstancesdescribedabove,itisstillprudenttobepreparedforsuchaneed.Considerationshouldbegiventhattowtruckswithasupplyofgasolinebedeployedatstrategiclo cationswithin,orjustoutside,theEPZ.Theselocationsshouldbeselectedsothat: Theypermitaccesstokey,heavilyloaded,evacuationroutes. Respondingtowtruckswouldmostlikelytravelcounter flowrelativetoevacuatingtraffic.Considerationshouldalsobegiventhatthestateandlocalemergencymanagementagenciesencouragegasstationstoremainopenduringtheevacuation.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation12 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.112 CONFIRMATIONTIMEItisnecessarytoconfirmthattheevacuationprocessiseffectiveinthesensethatthepubliciscomplyingwiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheEPZtownradiologicalemergencyplansdonotdiscussaprocedureforconfirmingevacuation.Shouldproceduresnotalreadyexist,thefollowingalternativeorcomplementaryapproachissuggest ed.Thesuggestedprocedureemploysastratifiedrandomsampleandatelephonesurvey.ThesizeofthesampleisdependentontheexpectednumberofhouseholdsthatdonotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Itisreasonabletoassume,forthepurposeofestimatingsamplesizethatatleast80perc entofthepopulationwithintheEPZwillcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Onthisbasis,ananalysiscouldbeundertaken(seeTable12 1)toyieldanestimatedsamplesizeofapproximately300.Theconfirmationprocessshouldstartatabout21/2hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,whichiswhenapproximately90percentofevacueeshavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivities(seeTable5 9).Atthistime,virtuallyallevacueeswillhavedepartedontheirrespectivetripsandthelocaltelephonesystemwillbelargelyfreeoftraffic.AsindicatedinTable12 1,approximately71/2personhoursareneededtocompletethetelephonesurvey.Ifsixpeopleareassignedtothistask,eachdialingadifferentsetoftelephoneexchanges(e.g.,eachpersoncanbeassignedadifferentsetofsub areas),thentheconfirmationprocesswillextendoveratimeframeofabout75minutes.Thus,theconfirmationshouldbecompletedbeforetheevacuatedareaiscleared.Ofcourse,fewerpeoplewouldbeneededforthissurveyiftheEvacuationRegionwereonlyaportionoftheEPZ.Useofmodernautomatedcomputercontrolleddialingequipmentorothertechnologies(e.g.,reverse911orequivalentifavailable)cansignificantlyredu cethemanpowerrequirementsandthetimerequiredtoundertakethistypeofconfirmationsurvey.Ifthismethodisindeedusedbytheoffsiteagencies,considerationshouldbegiventomaintainalistoftelephonenumberswithintheEPZintheEOCatalltimes.Suchalistcouldbepurchasedfromvendorsandsh ouldbeperiodicallyupdated.Asindicatedabove,theconfirmationprocessshouldnotbeginuntil21/2hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,toensurethathouseholdshavehadenoughtimetomobilize.This21/2 hourtimeframewillenabletelephoneoperatorstoarriveattheirworkplace,obtainacalllistan dpreparetomakethenecessaryphonecalls.Shouldthenumberoftelephoneresponses(i.e.,peoplestillathome)exceed20percent,thenthetelephonesurveyshouldberepeatedafteranhour'sintervaluntiltheconfirmationprocessiscompleted.Othertechniquescouldalsobeconsidered.Aftertrafficvolumesdecline,thepersonne lmanningTCPscanberedeployedtotravelthroughresidentialareastoobserveandtoconfirmevacuationactivities.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStation12 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table12 1.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuationProblemDefinitionEstimatenumberofphonecalls,n,neededtoascertaintheproportion,Fofhouseholdsthathavenotevacuated.

Reference:

Burstein,H.,AttributeSampling,McGrawHill,1971Given: No.ofhouseholdsplusotherfacilities,N,withintheEPZ(est.)=36,800 Est.proportion,F,ofhouseholdsthatwillnotevacuate=0.20 Allowableerrormargin,e:0.05 Confidencelevel,:0.95(impliesA=1.96)ApplyingTable10ofcitedreference,Finitepopulationcorrection:

Thus,some300telephonecallswillconfirmthatapproximately20percentofthepopulationhasnotevacuated.Ifonly10percentofthepopulationdoesnotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate,thentherequiredsamplesize,n F=215.

Est.PersonHourstocomplete300telephonecallsAssume: Timetodialusingtouchtone(randomselectionoflistednumbers):30seconds Timefor6rings(noanswer):36seconds Timefor4ringsplusshortconversation:60sec. Intervalbetweencalls:20sec.PersonHours:

APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms PilgrimNuclearPowerStationA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.

APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel PilgrimNuclearPowerStationB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost".OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel PilgrimNuclearPowerStationB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a=

ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepres entsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationB 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?

Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 80078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelength ofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,.

Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes PilgrimNuclearPowerStationC 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.

APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure PilgrimNuclearPowerStationD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.Dataforemployees,transients,schools,andotherfacilitieswereobtainedfromlocalemergencymanagementagencies.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateandlocalemergencymanagers,on siteandoff siteutilityemergencymanagers,localandstatelawenforcementagencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specificrequestsforinformationwerepresentedtolocalemergencymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredtoperformpre evacuationmobilizationactivities.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto12subareas.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofsub areas)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperien cetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputstreammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thentheprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroutespecificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentandspecialf acilitypopulationgroups.Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXESpecialFacilityData PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. SPECIALFACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofJune,2012,forspecialfacilities,transientattractionsandmajoremployersthatarelocatedwithinthePNPSEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,preschools/daycares,majoremployers,recreationalareas,lodgingfacilities,correctionalfacilitiesanddaycamps.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforrecreationalareasandlodgingfacilities.Employmentdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,pre school/daycare,majoremployer,recreationalarea,lodgingfacility,correctionalfacilityanddaycamparealsoprovided.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZSub areaDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaff12.1SEManometElementarySchool70ManometPointRoadPlymouth(508)83043803755224.3SSEIndianBrookElementarySchool1181StateRoadPlymouth(508)83043707707024.8SSWPlymouthSouthHighSchool490LongPondRoadPlymouth(508)22475231,53121224.4SSWPlymouthSouthMiddleSchool488LongPondRoadPlymouth(508)22427257507034.2WMountPleasantSchool221/2WhitingStreetPlymouth(508)83043471423534.2WNathanielMortonElementarySchool6LincolnStreetPlymouth(508)83043206369034.3WSWPlymouthCommunityIntermediateSchool117LongPondRoadPlymouth(508)83044501,27719133.7WPlymouthNorthHighSchool41OberyStreetPlymouth(508)83044001,11617159.1SNewTestamentChristianSchool1120LongPondRoadPlymouth(508)88818891112357.7SSouthElementarySchool178BourneRoadPlymouth(508)83043907559067.8WSWFederalFurnaceSchool860FederalFurnaceRoadPlymouth(508)830436046010167.7WSWWoodsideSchoolandCommunityResourceCenter34SouthersMarshLanePlymouth(508)8303384481275.3WNWColdSpringElementarySchool26AldenStreetPlymouth(508)83043352583676.0WNWHedgeElementarySchool258StandishStreetNorthPlymouth(508)83043402262976.7WPilgrimAcademy42IndustrialParkRoadNorthPlymouth(508)747668658976.9WRisingTideCharterPublicSchool6ResnikRoadPlymouth(508)74726203204777.2WWestElementarySchool170PlymptonRoadPlymouth(508)83043504788187.9WNWKingstonElementarySchool150MainStreetKingston(781)585382167511287.9WNWKingstonIntermediateSchool622ndBrookStreetKingston(781)585047270967 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub areaDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaff88.2WSacredHeartElementarySchool329BishopsHighwayKingston(781)58521143554088.1WSacredHeartHighSchool399BishopsHighwayKingston(781)585751146268811.7WNWSilverLakeRegionalHighSchool256PembrokeStreetKingston(781)58538441,251150811.6WNWSilverLakeRegionalMiddleSchool256PembrokeStreetKingston(781)58235556107498.9NWAldenSchool75AldenStreetDuxbury(781)9347630822106910.4NWChandlerElementarySchool93ChandlerStreetDuxbury(781)934768064212698.0NWDuxburyBayMaritimeSchool457WashingtonStreetDuxbury(781)93475552507598.9NWDuxburyHighSchool130SaintGeorgeSreettDuxbury(781)93476501,01714898.9NWDuxburyMiddleSchool71AldenStreetDuxbury(781)934764081010199.0WNWGoodShepherdChristianAcademy2TremontStreetDuxbury(781)93460071082398.9NWPilgrimAreaCollab.(HighSchool)130SaintGeorgeStreetDuxbury(781)9349755171298.9NWPilgrimAreaCollab.(Middle)75AldenStreetDuxbury(781)93497555698.9NWPilgrimAreaCollaborative130SaintGeorgeStreetDuxbury(781)93497551712109.9NNWGovernorEdwardWinslowSchool60RegisRoadMarshfield(781)8345060450661110.7WSWCarverElementarySchool85MainStreetCarver(508)866622044840119.7WSWCarverHighSchool60SouthMeadowRoadCarver(508)866614052697119.8WSWCarverMiddleSchool60SouthMeadowRoadCarver(508)8666130452491110.7WSWErwinK.WashburnPrimarySchool85MainStreetCarver(508)866621040786TOTAL:19,3442,777 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.PreschoolswithintheEPZSub areaDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaff11.4WSWGardenofKnowledge 40StateRoad Plymouth(508)8306050 44 10 11.4SSEKinderKollege478StateRoad Plymouth(508)2248753 30 5 12.3SELeapingFrogsPreschool21ManometPointRoadPlymouth(508)224499920424.5SSETinyTownInc.1226StateRoad Plymouth(508)2247769 45 12 35.1WChildren'sCreativeLearningCenter41WesterlyRoadPlymouth(508)747928120334.9WHop,Skip&JumpPreschool1ParkPlacePlymouth(508)591723820435.7WKinderCarePilgrimHill24PilgrimHillRoadPlymouth(508)8300817711634.5WSmallScholarsPreschool8TownSquarePlymouth(774)454711538834.5WRoom2GrowNurserySchool8SpringLanePlymouth(508)747311131534.4WSWLearningSafariDayCare&Preschool8NatalieWayPlymouth(508)830680544958.6SBrightIdeasPreschool 24MountainHillRoad Plymouth(774)4137466 36 6 59.6SPondsChildcareCenter133RaymondRoadPlymouth(508)7591333831766.2WMethodistNurserySchool291/2CarverRoadPlymouth(508)746706330368.1WSWMissJoAnne'sBrightBegnnngs204SMeadowRoadPlymouth(508)747447525476.1WNWCrayonCollegeAtPlymouth98NicksRockRoadPlymouth(508)747543739976.7WKinderCare Richard'sRoad3RichardsRoadPlymouth(508)7460612551586.7WNWCrayonCollegeInc.24MainStreetKingston(781)5855437 55 11 88.6WNWGrowthUnlimitedPreschool7GreenSt#1Kingston(781)585586430689.5WNWLittlePeoplesCountryDay25WappingRoadKingston(781)582139993 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub areaDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaff88.5WSacredHeartEarlyChildhood251BishopsHighwayKingston(781)585229010012810.9WNWSouthShoreEarlyEducation142PembrokeStreetKingston(781)58504002451088.1WNWWoodedAcresChildCare168MainStreetKingston(781)5850041451598.9NWAfterSchoolClubAlden75AldenStreetDuxbury(781)934763035598.5WNWBayFarmMontessoriAcademy145LoringRoadDuxbury(781)934710118842910.1WNWBerrybrookSchool267WinterStreetDuxbury(781)5852307 54 11 911.4NWBlueRiverMontesorriSchool484TempleStreetDuxbury(781)8344480103910.4NWBreakfastClubChandler93ChandlerSreetDuxbury(781)9347610302396.8NWCedarhillRetreatConferenceCenterDaycare346StandishStreetDuxbury(781)9342207102911.2WNWDiscoveryCornerDaycare88LakeShoreDriveDuxbury(N/A)103910.5NWElementsMontessoriSchool221SummerStreetDuxbury(781)5858222193910.4NWJuniorClubChandler 93ChandlerSreetDuxbury(781)9347610 47 8 910.4NWKindergartenExtChandler93ChandlerSreetDuxbury(N/A)978910.4NWMagicDragonChildrensCenter93ChandlerSreetDuxbury(781)93476711702799.6WNWPiedPiperPreschool 38KingstownWayDuxbury(781)5856843 49 10 98.9NWPilgrimAreaCollab.(Alden)75AldenStreetDuxbury(781)934743087910.4NWPilgrimAreaCollab.(Chandler)93ChandlerSreetDuxbury(781)5820305131198.0NWPilgrimChildCare&Preschool404WashingtonStreetDuxbury(781)93481457623 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub areaDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaff98.8NWSouthShoreConsPreschool64SaintGeorgeStreetDuxbury(N/A)3441110.5WSWCaptPalPreSchool 15MainStreet Carver(508)8665415 30 5 1111.7WSWCranberryCrossingDayCare42NorthMainStreetCarver(508)86624005861111.7WKidsCountDaySchool185PlymouthStreet Carver(508)8669737 39 5 1110.7WSWKidstopEarlyChildhoodCenter90MainStreetCarver(508)866920092181110.7WSWOldColonyYMCA 85MainStreet Carver(508)8334796 80 8TOTAL:2,264419 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZSub areaDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCap acityCurrentCensusAmbul atoryPatientsWheel chairPatientsBedriddenPatients24.5SSEHighPointTreatmentCenter1233StateRdPlymouth(508)746200021921011124434.7WNWChiltonHouseInc.3ChiltonStreetPlymouth(508)224770142402110832.8WEmeritus97WarrenAvenuePlymouth(508)7464343101975830933.6WGoldenLivingCenter Plymouth19OberyStreetPlymouth(508)746299913513050225833.5WJordanHospital275SandwichStPlymouth(781)585220015514979393134.0WLifeCareCenterofPlymouth94OberyStreetPlymouthN/A21320465796034.6WNewfieldHouse19NewfieldStreetPlymouth(781)585223195915731334.1WPlymouthCrossings157SouthStreetPlymouth(781)585220095914841934.2WRadiusHealthCareNursingHome123SouthStreetPlymouth(508)830999023822898963434.4WStaffordHillAssistedLiving60StaffordStreetPlymouth(508)22460971201156162458.3SSWTeamWorks225CuttersFieldRdPlymouth(781)58555262221115476.3WNWBairdCenterGroupHome16ForestAvenuePlymouth(508)74747903635199776.6WCommunityConnectionsInc.130IndustrialParkRoadPlymouth(781)585658948462451076.1WNWCozyCornerADHCLLC94NicksRockRoadPlymouth(508)74620004341224976.5WNWHabilitationAssistanceCorporation434CourtStreetPlymouth(508)50314578884452618811.8WNWWingateatSilverLake17ChipmanWayKingston(508)22477012522411286351910.2NWBayPathRehabilitation&NursingCenter308KingstownWayDuxbury(508)7467433120115613024910.2NWDuxburyHouse298KingstownWayDuxbury(508)747980023221265910.1NWTheVillageAtDuxbury290KingstownWayDuxbury(508)74697336058311512TOTAL:2,1052,0181,001482430 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZSub areaDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)10.1SEPilgrimNuclearStation600RockyHillRoadPlymouth(508)830700068556%30134.0WSWBJ'sWholesaleClubShopsat5WayPlymouth(508)59110097524%1834.1WHomeGoods/TJMaxx65ShopsatFiveWayTheShopsatFive(508)74796417520%1534.1WMayflowerServiceStationInc164SouthStreetPlymouth(508)7462009505%333.8WPlymouthCountyCorrectionalFacility52OberySt#1Plymouth508747296230044%13234.4WSWTheHomeDepotPlymouth39LongPondRoadPlymouth(508)8306702505%357.9SSWMCIPlymouth1BumpsPondRoadSouthCarver(508)295264710044%4467.9WSWSouthShoreCommunityActionCouncil196SouthMeadowRoadPlymouth(508)74775875030%1576.7WCDFCorporation77IndustrialParkRoadPlymouth(800)44319208030%2475.5WColonialFord147SamosetStreetPlymouth(508)74634005060%3075.8WHarvestTechnologiesCorporation40GrissomRd#100Plymouth(508)73275007540%3076.0WPre MediaGlobalProductions<Null><Null><Null>10075%7575.8WSmartPack40GrissomRoadPlymouth<Null>25085%21376.1WSuncorStainless,Inc.70ArmstrongRoadPlymouth(508)73291916090%5476.0WTech EtchInc45AldrinRoadPlymouth(508)747030032558%189Various(SeeTableE 1)BoardofEducationVarious(SeeTableE 1)2,47444%1,089TOTAL:4,7992,235 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZSub areaDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehicles11.8WSWPlymouthCountryClub221WarrenAvenuePlymouth(508)7465001381522.8SSEBriggsPlayground838StateRoadPlymouthN/A15624.6SSWCrosswindsGolfClub424LongPondRoadPlymouth(508)224670081932023.5SWForgesField83JordanRoadPlymouth(508)73299621204723.3SSEFreshPond220BartlettRoadPlymouthN/A251024.4SSEManometRecreationFacilityStateRoadPlymouth(508)7472325642523.0SSWOldSandwichGolfClub41DoublebrookRoadPlymouth(508)209220010424.3SSWPinehillsGolfClub54ClubhouseDrivePlymouth(508)8888700331322.3SSEStopandShopPlazaStateRoadPlymouth(781)8371181303024.4SSWWaverlyOaksGolfClub444LongPondRoadPlymouthN/A41516233.9WAveryMemorialPlaygroundNookRoadPlymouthN/A773034.3WBrewerYachtYardsPlymouthMarine14UnionStreetPlymouth(508)930817325610034.4WBrewsterGardensWaterStreetPlymouth(508)7474544381534.7WNWHedgeHouseMuseum126WaterStreetPlymouthN/A14532.8WSWHowlandHouse33SandwichRoadPlymouth(508)746882510434.5WJenneyGristMillPark6SpringLanePlymouth(508)74669322419434.3WSWJohnArmstrongMemorialSkatingRink103LongPondRoadPlymouthN/A1927534.5WNWMayflowerIIMuseum137WarrenAvenuePlymouth(508)8662526351334.7WNWPilgrimHallMuseum75CourtStreetPlymouth(508)8662580803132.2WPlymouthPlantation137WarrenAvenuePlymouthN/A1,05041032.3WPlymouthLongBeach1RyderWayPlymouth(508)866252643316934.4WNWPlymouthRockWaterStreetPlymouth(781)83731123513 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub areaDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehicles34.2WPlymouthYachtClub34UnionStreetPlymouthN/A2309035.7WShaw'sSupermarketPlaza20PilgrimHillRoadPlymouth(508)7463493686834.0WStephen'sField132SandwichStreetPlymouthN/A23934.7WNWTownWharfEnterprisesInc.10TownWharfPlymouth(781)58591179738510.1SAtlanticCountryClub450LittleSandyPondRoadPlymouth(508)830353520859.5SCampBournedale110ValleyRoadPlymouth(508)74662001174657.8SCampClark200HedgesPondRoadPlymouth(508)747454446518259.7SCampMassasoit4ElbowPondRoadPlymouthN/A973858.6SSWCampSquanto200CuttersFieldRoadPlymouth(508)746687742816757.2SSEEllisvilleHarborStateParkStateRoadPlymouthN/A8359.1SElmerERaymondPlayground1138LongPondRoadPlymouthN/A4257.3SSEIndianheadResort1929StateRoadPlymouthN/A72018055.6SSWLongPondPublicBeachandBoatLaunchWestLongPondRoadPlymouth(508)224603913556.2SPinewoodsCamp80CornishFieldRoadPlymouth(508)7461622256100510.5SSandyPondCampground834BourneRoadPlymouth(508)746959057122358.6SShaw'sSupermarketPlaza2260StateRoadPlymouthN/A383858.9SSEWhitecliffCountryClubWhiteCliffDrivePlymouth(508)759664420855.7SSWWindThePinesGirlScoutCenter190WestLongPondRoadPlymouth(781)534024932012566.7SWCollegePondMylesStandishStateParkPlymouthN/A25510067.2WSWEllis HavenCampgrounds531FederalFurnaceRoadPlymouth(508)7474544381565.7WMortonParkLittlePondRoadPlymouthN/A48619065.9WSWMylesStandishStateForest194CranberryRoadCarver(508)74616221,06041468.4WPinewoodLodgeCampground190PinewoodRoadPlymouth(508)224200276830067.7WSWSouthersMarshGolfClub30SouthersMarshLanePlymouth(508)74678008367.5WSquirrelRunCountryClub32ElderberryDrivePlymouth(508)8301199612468.2WSWVillageLinkGolfClub265SouthMeadowRoadPlymouth(508)74650016124 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub areaDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehicles78.6WCampNorse112PartingWaysRoadKingston(508)74712402248875.1WNWNationalMonumenttotheForefathers70AllertonRoadPlymouthN/A351375.1WNWNelsonMemorialPark/BeachNelsonStreetPlymouth(508)75993362158475.7WNWSieverField112StandishAvenuePlymouth(508)8332975491975.6WSuperStop&ShopPlaza127SamosetStreetPlymouth(781)8379617666675.9WNWVeteran'sMemorialPlayground219StandishAvenuePlymouth(508)746144410474.9WNWVillageLandingMarketplace170WaterStreetPlymouth(508)7464500797988.3WCampMishannock363BishopsHighwayKingston(781)9349092471888.4WNWIndianPondCountryClub60CountryClubWayKingston(508)20930001485899.0NWAldenHouseMuseum105AldenStreetDuxbury(508)74698051285098.9NWArtComplexMuseum189AldenStreetDuxburyN/A12850912.7NWCampWing19MyrtleStreetDuxbury(508)746162052020396.8NWCedarHillRetreatCenter346StandishStreetDuxburyN/A12598.1NNWDuxburyBeachGurnetRoadDuxbury(508)22448584,5261,76898.4NWDuxburyYachtClub70FairwayLaneDuxbury(508)7467207642597.2NWMylesStandishStateParkCrescentStreetDuxbury(508)74671001285099.5NWNorthHillCountryClub29MerryAvenueDuxbury(781)9343249128501010.7NNWBrantRockBeachOceanStreetMarshfield(508)29521176532551010.4NNWGreenHarborMarina239DykeRoadMarshfield(781)9342578215841010.4NNWGreenHarborYachtClub257DykeRoadMarshfield(508)7476193215841010.1NNWTaylorMarineCorporation95CentralStreetMarshfield(781)8349115215841111.2SWCachalotScoutReservationSELineRoadSouthCarver(508)7460012235921110.0SWShadyAcresCampground20ShoestringRoadCarverN/A410160TOTAL:18,7127,380 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 6.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZSub areaDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehicles12.2SEAWhiteSwanBedandBreakfast146ManometPointRoadPlymouth(508)224375912612.2SSEBlueSpruceMotel710StateRoadPlymouth(508)2243990582933.0WAbovetheBayatThorntonAdamsHouseB&B73WarrenAvenuePlymouth(866)74602806334.2WBlueAnchorMotel7LincolnStreetPlymouth(508)74695516334.5WNWBytheSeaBed&Breakfast22WinslowStreetPlymouth(508)83096436334.4WHiltonGardenInnPlymouth4HomeDepotDrivePlymouth(781)83002001226134.6WJohnCarverInn&Spa25SummerStreetPlymouth(508)746710016010032.2WPilgrimSandsMotel150WarrenAvePlymouth(508)74709001266334.7WNWSeabreezeInnBed&Breakfast20ChiltonStreetPlymouth(508)74628006356.9SSEABeachHouseOceanfront45BlackPondLanePlymouth(508)22435172175.2WNWBestWesternPlusColdSpring180CourtStreetPlymouth(508)74622221125675.7WComfortInn155SamosetSt.(US44)Plymouth(508)74628001346777.1WHamptonInn&Suites10PlazaWayPlymouth(508)747500032916574.9WNWRadissonHotelPlymouthHarbor180WaterStreetPlymouth(508)74749009519087.9WNWPlymouthBayInnandSuites149MainStreetKingston(508)8301849502598.3NNWPowderPointBed&Breakfast182PowderPointAvenueDuxbury(781)9347727105TOTAL:1,234780 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 7.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZSub areaDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCapacity33.8WPlymouthCountyCorrectionalFacility52OberySt#1Plymouth(508)74729621,60057.9SSWMCIPlymouth1BumpsPondRoadSouthCarver(508)2952647220TOTAL:1,820 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 8.DaycampswithintheEPZSub areaDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCapacityVehicles78.6WCampNorseBoyScoutCamp112PartingWaysRoadKingston(508)2869202224888.0WCampMishannock363BishopsHighwayKingston(781)585859247298.9NWBefore&AfterDark130SaintGeorgeStreetDuxbury(781)934763332012910.4NWMagicDragonSummerCamp93ChandlerStreetDuxbury(781)934767113861111.5SWCampClear40WarehamStreetCarver(508)8664549704TOTAL:79932 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.Preschools/DaycareswithintheEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 3.KingstonPreschools/DaycareswithintheEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.CarverandPlymouthPreschools/DaycareswithintheEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 5.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 6.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 7.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 8.PlymouthRecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 9.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE10.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ PilgrimNuclearPowerStationE 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE11.DaycampswithintheEPZ APPENDIXFTelephoneSurvey PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F. TELEPHONESURVEYF.1 IntroductionThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesforthePilgrimEPZrequirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseverallimitationswhenappliedtoemergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneededtoidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,CensusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlymaynotaccuratelyrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.TheseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleoftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerningfamilydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthesurveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheform"Whatwouldyoudoif-?"andotherquestionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar("Howlongdoesittakeyouto-?")

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlanAttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthesurveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeofapproximately500completedsurveyformsyi eldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4.5%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alistofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF 1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlayingCensusdataandtheEPZboundary,againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsforeachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF 1.NotethattheaveragehouseholdsizecomputedinTableF 1wasanestimateforsamplingpurposesandwasnotuse dintheETEstudy.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.TableF 1.PilgrimTelephoneSurveySamplingPlanZipCodePopulationwithinEPZ(2010)HouseholdsRequiredSample020502,31992213023307,4712,912410233215,0975,359760236056,43321,2563040236412,6204,6606602532229002571210Total93,96435,119500AverageHouseholdSize:2.68TotalSampleRequired:500 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3 SurveyResultsTheresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsoftheareacanbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobileownership,andautomobileavailability.Thedistributionsofthetimetoperformcertainpre evacuationactivitiesarethesecondcategoryofsurveyresults.Thesedataareprocessedtodevelopthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedinSection5.Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshavea"don'tknow"(DK)or"refused"entryforaresponse.Itisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthi stypetoaccepttheanswersofarespondentwhooffersaDKresponseforafewquestionsorwhorefusestoanswerafewquestions.ToaddresstheissueofoccasionalDK/refusedresponsesfromalargesample,thepracticeistoassumethatthedistributionoftheseresponsesisthesameasth eunderlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDK/refusedresponsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResultsHouseholdSizeFigureF 1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ.Theaveragehouseholdcontains2.56people.Theestimatedhouseholdsize(2.68persons)usedtodeterminethesurveysample(TableF 1)wasdrawnfromCensusdata.ThecloseagreementbetweentheaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthesurveyandfromtheCensusisanindicationofthereliabilit yofthesurvey.FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ0%10%20%30%40%

50%12345678910+

%ofHouseholds HouseholdSize PilgrimHouseholdSize PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AutomobileOwnershipTheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis2.09.Itshouldbenotedthat1.2percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF 2.FigureF 3andFigureF 4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.Notethatthemajorityofhouseholdswithoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2ormorepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehicles PilgrimVehicleAvailability PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholdsFigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds 0%20%40%60%80%100%012345678%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 1 5PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 0%20%

40%60%80%100%012345678%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 6 9+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9+People PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RidesharingTheoverwhelmingproportion(91%)ofthehouseholdssurveyed(whodonotownavehicle)respondedthattheywouldsharearidewithaneighbor,relative,orfriendifacarwasnotavailabletothemwhenadvisedtoevacuateintheeventofanemergency.Note,however,thatonlythosehouseholdswithnoaccesstoaveh icle-12totaloutofthesamplesizeof500-answeredthisquestion.Thus,theresultsarenotstatisticallysignificant.Assuch,theNRCrecommendationof50%ridesharingisusedthroughoutthisstudy.FigureF 5presentsthisresponse.FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds PilgrimRidesharewithNeighbor/Friend PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommutersFigureF 6presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.16commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ,and65%ofhouseholdshaveatleastonecommuter.FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ0%10%20%30%

40%50%01234+%ofHouseholds NumberofCommuters PilgrimCommuters PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommuterTravelModesFigureF 7presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.05employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZF.3.2 EvacuationResponseSeveralquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulation'sresponsetoanemergency.Thesearenowdiscussed:"Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?"TheresponseisshowninFigureF 8.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.37vehicles."Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?"Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,38percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembersbeforeevacuatingand62percentindicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembers."Ifyouhadahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyou rpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?"Basedontheresponsestothesurvey,29percentofhouseholdshaveafamilypet.Ofthehouseholdswithpets,92percentofthemindicatedthattheywouldtaketheirpetswiththem,asshowninFigur eF 9."Whenevacuatingwithyourhouseholdpet,wouldyouevacuatetoareceptioncenteriftheydonotacceptpets?"AsshowninFigureF 10,only7percentofhouseholdswouldevacuatetoareceptioncenterwiththeirpet.3.0%1.9%0.9%89.6%4.6%0%20%40%60%80%100%RailBusWalk/BikeDriveAloneCarpool(2+)%ofCommuters ModeofTravel PilgrimTravelModetoWork PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuationFigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets0%20%40%60%80%100%012345%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVehiclesUsedforEvacuation 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF10.HouseholdsevacuatingwithPetstoCareCenters"Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationregardingcompliancewithinstructionstoshelterinplace.Theresultsindicatethat81percentofhouseholdswhoareadvisedtoshelterinplacewoulddoso;theremaining19percentwouldchoosetoevacuateth earea.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.Thus,thedataobtainedaboveisingoodagreementwiththefederalguidance."Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationspecificallyrelatedtothepossibilityofastagedevacuation.Thatis,askingapopulationtoshelterinplacenowandthentoevacuateafteraspecifiedperiodoftime.Resultsindicatethat71percentofhouseholdswouldfollowinstructionsanddelaythestartofevacuationuntilsoadvised,whilethebalanceof29percentwouldchoosetobeginevacuatingimmediately.F.3.3 TimeDistributionResultsThesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuationactivities.Theseact ivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheirday to daylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftheresponder'sexperience.ThemobilizationdistributionsprovidedbelowaretheresultofhavingappliedtheanalysisdescribedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization.0%20%40%

60%80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPetstoReceptionCenterswhodonotAcceptPets PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?"FigureF 11presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyabout75minutes.Ninetypercentcanleavewithin30minutes.FigureF11.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School"Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?"FigureF 12presentstheworktohometraveltimefortheEPZ.About90percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithinabout60minutesofleavingwork;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyabout120minutes.FigureF12.WorktoHomeTravelTime0%20%40%60%80%100%01530456075

%ofCommuters PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)WorktoHomeTravel PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?"FigureF 13presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthisactivitymimicsafamily'spreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.ThedistributionshowninFigureF 13hasalong"tail."About90percentofhouseholdscanbereadytoleavehomewithin75minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptothreehours.FigureF13.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180

%ofHouseholds PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakeyoutoclear6to8inchesofsnowfromyourdriveway?"Duringadverse,snowyweatherconditions,anadditionalactivitymustbeperformedbeforeresidentscandepartontheevacuationtrip.Althoughsnowscenariosassumethattheroadsandhighwayshavebeenplowedandarepassable(albeitatlowerspeedsandcapacities),itmaybenecessarytoclearaprivatedrivewaypriortoleavingthehomesothatthevehiclecanaccessthestreet.FigureF 14presentsthetimedistributionforremoving6to8inchesofsnowfromadriveway.Thetimedistributionforclearingthedrivewayhasalongtail;about90percentofdrivewaysarepassablewithin75minutes.Thelastdrivewayisclearedthreehoursafterthestartofthisactivity.Notethatthoserespondents(43%)whoansweredthattheywouldnottaketimetocleartheirdrivewaywereassumedtobereadyimmediatelyatthestartofthisactivity.Essentiallyth eywoulddrivethroughthesnowonthedrivewaytoaccesstheroadwayandbegintheirevacuationtrip.FigureF14.TimetoClearDrivewayof6" 8"ofSnowF.4 ConclusionsThetelephonesurveyprovidesvaluable,relevantdataassociatedwiththeEPZpopulation,whichhavebeenusedtoquantifydemographicsspecifictotheEPZ,and"mobilizationtime"whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180

%ofHouseholds TravelTime(min)TimetoRemoveSnowfromDriveway PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ATTACHMENTATelephoneSurveyInstrument PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TelephoneSurveyInstrumentHello,mynameis___________andI'mconductingasurveyfortheEmergencyManagementAgenciesofCarver,Duxbury,Kingston,MarshfieldandPlymouthmunicipalities.Theinformationyouprovidewillbeusedforemergencyplanningtoenhancelocalresponseplans.Emergencyplanningforsomehazardsmayrequireevacuation.Youranswerstomyquestionswillgreatlycontributetothiseffort.Iwillnotaskforyourname.COL.1Unused COL.2Unused COL.3Unused COL.4Unused COL.5Unused SexCOL.81Male2FemaleINTERVIEWER:ASKTOSPEAKTOTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLDORTHESPOUSEOFTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLD.(Terminatecallifnotaresidence.)

DONOTASK:1A.Recordareacode.ToBeDeterminedCOL.9 111B.Recordexchangenumber.ToBeDeterminedCOL.12 142.Whatisyourhomezipcode?COL.15 193A.Intotal,howmanycars,orothervehiclesareusuallyavailabletothehousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.20 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIX7SEVEN8EIGHT9NINEORMORE0ZERO(NONE)XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.3BQ.3B3B.Inanemergency,couldyougetarideoutoftheareawithaneighbororfriend?COL.211YES2NOXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED4.Howmanypeopleusuallyliveinthishousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.22 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIXCOL.230TEN1ELEVEN2TWELVE3THIRTEEN4FOURTEEN5FIFTENN PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17SEVEN 8EIGHT9NINE6SIXTEEN7SEVENTEEN8EIGHTEEN9NINETEENORMOREXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED5.Howmanyadultsinthehouseholdcommutetoajob,ortocollegeonadailybasis?COL.24 0ZERO1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOURORMORE5DON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.9Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.9INTERVIEWER:ForeachpersonidentifiedinQuestion5,askQuestions6,7,and8.6.Thinkingaboutcommuter#1,howdoesthatpersonusuallytraveltoworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)Commuter#1 COL.25Commuter#2 COL.26Commuter#3COL.27Commuter#4 COL.28Rail1 1 1 1Bus2 2 2 2Walk/Bicycle3 3 3 3DriveAlone4 4 4 4Carpool 2ormorepeople5 5 5 5Don'tknow/Refused6 6 6 6 7.Howmuchtimeonaverage,wouldittakeCommuter#1totravelhomefromworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.29COL.30COL.31 COL.3215MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.33COL.34COL.35 COL.3615MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED8.ApproximatelyhowmuchtimedoesittakeCommuter#1tocompletepreparationforleavingworkorcollegepriortostartingthetriphome?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.37COL.38COL.39 COL.4015MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 9XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.41COL.42COL.43 COL.4415MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 9XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNO W/REFUSED9.Ifyouwereadvisedbylocalauthoritiestoevacuate,howmuchtimewouldittakethehouseholdtopackclothing,medications,securethehouse,loadthecar,andcompletepreparationspriortoevacuatingthearea?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.45COL.46 1LESSTHAN15MINUTES13HOURSTO3HOURS15MINUTES215 30MINUTES23HOURS16MINUTESTO3HOURS30MINUTES 331 45MINUTES33HOURS31MINUTESTO3HOURS45MINUTES 446MINUTES-1HOUR43HOURS46MINUTESTO4HOURS51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES54HOURSTO4HOURS15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES64HOURS16MINUTESTO4HOURS30MINUTES 71HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES74HOURS31MINUTESTO4HOURS45MINUTES 81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS84HOURS46MINUTESTO5HOURS PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.192HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES95HOURSTO5HOURS30MINUTES02HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES05HOURS31MINUTESTO6HOURSX2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES XOVER6HOURS(SPECIFY_______)Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSCOL.471 DON'TKNOW/REFUSED10.Ifthereis6 8"ofsnowonyourdrivewayorcurb,wouldyouneedtoshovelouttoevacuate?Ifyes,howmuchtime,onaverage,wouldittakeyoutoclearthe6 8"ofsnowtomovethecarfromthedrivewayorcurbtobegintheevacuationtrip?Assumetheroadsarepassable.(DONOTREADRESPONSES)COL.48COL.49 1LESSTHAN15MINUTES1OVER3HOURS(SPECIFY_______)215 30MINUTES2 DON'TKNOW/REFUSED 331 45MINUTES446MINUTES-1HOUR51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES 71HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES 81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS92HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES02HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES X2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSZNO,WILLNOTSHOVELOU T11.Pleasechooseoneofthefollowing(READANSWERS):A.Iwouldawaitthereturnofhouseholdcommuterstoevacuatetogether.B.Iwouldevacuateindependentlyandmeetotherhouseholdmemberslater.COL.50 1A2BXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED12.Howmanyvehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.511ONE2 TWO3 THREE4FOUR5 FIVE6 SIX7SEVEN8 EIGHT9 NINEORMORE PilgrimNuclearPowerStationF 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.10 ZERO(NONE)X DON'TKNOW/REFUSED13A.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.52 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED13B.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.53 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED14A.Ifyouhaveahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?(READANSWERS)COL.54SKIPTO1DON'THAVEAPE TENDSURVEY2YESQ.14B3NOENDSURVEYXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDENDSURVEY 14BWhenevacuatingwithyourhouseholdpet,wouldyouevacuatetoareceptioncenteriftheydonotacceptpets?(READANSWERS)COL.551 YES2 NO,WOULDREMAINATHOME3NO,WOULDEVACUATETOALOCATIONWHEREICOULDTAKEMYPETX DON'TKNOW/REFUSED Thankyouverymuch._______________________________(TELEPHONENUMBERCALLED)IFREQUESTED:Foradditionalinformation,contactyourMunicipalityEmergencyManagementAgencyduringnormalbusinesshours.MunicipalityEMAPhone Massachusetts(508)8202000 APPENDIXGTrafficManagementPlan PilgrimNuclearPowerStationG 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLANNUREG/CR 7002indicatesthattheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesshouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwereprovidedbythestate.TheseplanswerereviewedandtheTCPsweremodeledaccordingly.G.1 TrafficControlPointsAsdiscussedinSect ion9,trafficcontrolpointsatintersections(whicharecontrolled)aremodeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapre timedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasatrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypewaschangedtoanactuatedsignalintheDYNE VIIsystem.TableK 2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumberforthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.IftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeingaTrafficControlPoint,thecontroltypeisindicatedasa"TCP"inTableK 2.FigureG 1mapstheTCPsidentifiedinthestateemergencyplans.ThesesTCPswouldbemannedduringevacuationbytrafficguideswhowoulddirectevacueesintheproperdirectionandfacilitatetheflowoftrafficthroughtheintersections.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,theanimationofevacuationtrafficconditionsindicatesseveralcriticalintersectionswhichcouldbebottlenecksduringevacuation.Thes ecriticalintersectionswerecross checkedwiththestateemergencyplans.Alloftheintersections,exceptone-Route28andTihonetRoad-wereidentifiedasTCPsinthestateplan.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,thisintersectionremainscongestedbeyondthecompletionofmobilization(tripgeneration)time.ItisrecommendedthatthestateconsiderthisintersectionasaTCPasshowninFigureG 2.ThiswoulddiscouragetrafficflownorthboundandeastboundtowardstheEPZandwouldaidwiththeseverecongestiononTinhonetRoadsouthboundcomingfromtheEPZ.G.2 AccessControlPointsItisassumedthatACPswillbeestablishedwithin2hoursoftheadvisorytoevacuatetodiscouragethroughtravelersfromusingmajorthroughrouteswhichtraversetheEPZ.AsdiscussedinSection3.7,externaltrafficwasonlyconsideredonthreerouteswhichtraversethestudyarea-Route3,Route25,andI 195-inthisanal ysis.ThegenerationoftheseexternaltripsonRoute3isceasedat2hoursaftertheadvisorytoevacuateinthesimulation.AccordingtotheTown'semergencyplans,accesscontrolpointswillbemannedbytheMassachusettsStatePoliceaftertheadvisorytoevacuat ehasbeengiven.ItisrecommendedthatACPsRoute3andUS 44bethetoppriorityinassigningmanpowerandequipmentastheyarethemajorroutestraversingtheEPZandwillcarrythehighestvolumeofthroughtraffic.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationG 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 1.PNPSTrafficControlPoints PilgrimNuclearPowerStationG 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 2.SchematicoftheTCPatRoute28andTihonetRoadWareham, MARoute 28 & TihonetRoad 1ShadowMUNICIPALITY:LOCATION:ID:SUB-AREA:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDESTOP SIGNTRAFFIC BARRICADE2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safelyACTIONS TO BE TAKEN NMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATE1Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic ConesLOCATION PRIORITY 1.Discourage eastbound traffic on State Route 452.Discourage northbound traffic on TihonetRoad3.Facilitate southbound movement along TihonetRd to access Route 28 westbound 1Route 28TihonetRoad APPENDIXHEvacuationRegions PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1H EVACUATIONREGIONSThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH 1andTableH 2)andmapsofallEvacuationRegions.ThepercentagespresentedinTableH 1andTableH 2arebasedonthemethodologydiscussedinassumption5ofSection2.2andshowninFigure2 1.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhousehol dswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableH 1.PercentofSub areaPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegionBasicRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R012 MileRadius2 MileRing100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R025 MileRadius5 MileRing100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R03FullEPZ10 MileRing100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Evacuate2MileRegionandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R04NW,NNW,N306°019°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R05NNE,NE,ENE020°069°100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R06E070°122°100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R07ESE,SE123°140°100%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R08SSE,S141°183°100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%N/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW184°305°RefertoRegionR01Evacuate5MileRegionandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R09NW,NNW,N319°019°100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R10020°021°100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%R11NNE,NE022°056°100%100%100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%100%100%R12057°066°100%100%100%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%100%100%R13067°069°100%100%100%100%20%100%100%20%20%20%100%100%R14ENE070°103°100%100%100%100%20%100%100%100%20%20%100%100%R15E,ESE104°109°100%100%100%100%20%100%100%100%100%20%100%100%R16110°115°100%100%100%100%20%100%100%100%100%20%20%100%R17116°129°100%100%100%100%20%20%100%100%100%20%20%100%R18SE130°132°100%100%100%100%20%20%100%100%100%100%20%100%R19133°140°100%100%100%100%20%20%20%100%100%100%20%100%R20SSE,S141°175°100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%100%100%20%100%R21176°179°100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%N/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW180°318°RefertoRegionR02 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableH 2.PercentofSub areaPopulationEvacuatingforEachStagedRegionStagedEvacuation2 MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSub area123456789101112R22None5 MileRing100%100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R23NW,NNW,N020°069°100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R24NNE,NE,ENE070°122°100%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R25E123°140°100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R26ESE,SE141°183°100%20%100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%R27SSE,S184°305°100%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%N/ASSW,SW,WSW,W,WNW2 MileRingRefertoRegionR01KeyShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSubarea(s)Shelter in PlaceSubarea(s)Evacuate PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 1.RegionR01 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 2.RegionR02 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 3.RegionR03 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 4.RegionR04 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 5.RegionR05 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 6.RegionR06 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 7.RegionR07 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 9.RegionR09 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH10.RegionR10 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH11.RegionR11 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH12.RegionR12 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH13.RegionR13 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH14.RegionR14 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH15.RegionR15 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH16.RegionR16 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH17.RegionR17 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH18.RegionR18 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH19.RegionR19 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH20.RegionR20 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH21.RegionR21 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH22.RegionR22 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH23.RegionR23 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH24.RegionR24 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH25.RegionR25 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH26.RegionR26 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationH 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH27.RegionR27 APPENDIXJRepresentativeInputstoandOutputsfromtheDYNEVIISystem PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEMThisappendixpresentsdatainputtoandoutputfromtheDYNEVIISystem.TableJ 1providesthevolumeandqueuesforthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsinthestudyarea.RefertoTableK 2andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachintersection.TableJ 2providessource(vehicleloading)anddestinationinformationforseveralroadwaysegments(links)intheanalysisnetwork.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.TableJ 3providesnetwork-widestatistics(averagetraveltime,averagespeedandnumberofvehicles)foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)foreachscenario.Asexpected,Scenarios8and11,whicharesnowscenarios,exhibittheslowestaveragespeedandlongestaveragetraveltimes.TableJ 4providesstatistics(averagespeedandtraveltime)forthemajorevacuationroutes-US 44,Route3,andRoute3A-foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.AsdiscussedinSection7.3andshowninFigures7 3through7 9,Route3Asouthboundiscongestedformostoftheevacuation.Assuch,theaverag espeedsarecomparablyslower(andtraveltimeslonger)thanotherevacuationroutes.TableJ 5providesthenumberofvehiclesdischargedandthecumulativepercentoftotalvehiclesdischargedforeachlinkexitingtheanalysisnetwork,foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.RefertoTableK 1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapsh owingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.FigureJ 1throughFigureJ 14plotthetripgenerationtimeversustheETEforeachofthe14Scenariosconsidered.ThedistancebetweenthetripgenerationandETEcurvesisthetraveltime.PlotsoftripgenerationversusETEareindicativeoftheleveloftrafficcongestionduringevacuation.Forlowpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesareclosetogether,indicatingshorttraveltimesandminimaltrafficcongestion.Forhigherpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesarefartherapartindicatinglongertraveltimesandthepresenceoftrafficcongestion.AsseeninFigureJ 1throughFigureJ 14,thecurvesarespatiallyseparatedasaresultofthetrafficcongestionintheEPZ,whichwasdiscussedindetailinSectio n7.3.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersectionsNodeLocationIntersection ControlApproach (UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)188US 6&GlenCharlieRd.Actuated18710,1991549357257635972820TOTAL11,184185US 6&WalmartDrivewayActuated18410,406134961700TOTAL10,406186US 6&WalmartDrivewayActuated18510,322144261800TOTAL10,322182US 6&OnsetAve.Actuated6317,8113063511054TOTAL7,916174US 6&EdgeHillRd.Actuated1737,2110632470TOTAL7,258176US 6&NightingalePondRd.Actuated1757,243047613047700TOTAL7,256173US 6&BournedaleRd.Actuated4726,01903351,2000TOTAL7,219180US 6&St.MargaretsSt.Actuated1794,385159348432153501,626343TOTAL6,443151SR3A&MainSt.Actuated1506,2807015220TOTAL6,282485SR58&SR27Actuated1362,76214883,50035TOTAL6,262 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInputLinkNumberVehiclesEnteringNetworkonthisLinkDirectionalPreferenceDestination NodesDestinationCapacity187280NW84891,69881371,69880464,50051112W86511,69880611,69887091,698784224S80814,50080894,50080623,8101021114W80814,50086511,69880611,6981053164W85151,69881711,69884891,6981043199NW80464,50081551,69885541,69832413S80814,50080894,50080623,81063263SW80814,50086011,69880894,50075453S80623,81090530NW81551,69885541,698 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)Scenario1234567891011121314Network WideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)2.93.43.13.63.22.63.13.22.83.23.13.13.73.3Network WideAverageSpeed(mph)20.717.919.516.718.923.019.418.921.118.619.719.616.418.4TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork98,83099,30499,758100,43776,66994,63195,10893,84893,39693,16092,31973,86889,05499,192 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)ElapsedTime(hours)RouteLength(miles)1 2 3 4 Speed(mph)TravelTime(min)Speed TravelTime Speed TravelTime Speed TravelTime US 44Westbound7.022.918.28.052.210.340.770.06.0Route3Northbound13.528.128.825.631.568.911.769.611.6Route3Southbound6.966.26.365.96.370.05.969.96.0Route3ANorthbound15.329.231.435.925.636.225.337.924.2Route3ASouthbound10.87.487.04.4146.812.352.446.214.0 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1NetworkExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)1234CumulativeVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTimeIntervalCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTime23,1627,0029,3889,91914%13%12%10%973,4877,84412,21712,95016%14%15%13%1281,1302,6594,2265,7975%5%5%6%1312,1603,9314,6724,82010%7%6%5%1692,6656,6779,52711,09912%12%12%12%1842,9497,26510,10811,92513%13%12%12%3071,0122,5664,0945,5905%5%5%6%3802768261,7162,6511%2%2%3%6574471,2231,9822,5952%2%2%3%6581153045567981%1%1%1%6658642,4523,9985,3434%4%5%6%6873009961,6171,9851%2%2%2%702321241771880%0%0%0%7886001,8372,6603,0443%3%3%3%7895621,6232,5743,2193%3%3%3%8283901,3202,1662,8122%2%3%3%8833101,0031,4651,5261%2%2%2%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)1234CumulativeVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTimeIntervalCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTime8984481,3181,9552,2172%2%2%2%9462066991,1681,7061%1%1%2%10734021,2002,0212,6162%2%2%3%10937211,9753,1713,4243%4%4%4%

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario1)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario2)TripGenerationETE PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario3)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario4)TripGenerationETE PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario5)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good (Scenario6)TripGenerationETE PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario7)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Snow (Scenario8)TripGenerationETE PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good (Scenario9)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario10)TripGenerationETE PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11)FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)0%20%40%

60%80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330360390 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Snow (Scenario11)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good (Scenario12)TripGenerationETE PilgrimNuclearPowerStationJ 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)FigureJ14.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)0%20%40%60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good,SpecialEvent (Scenario13)TripGenerationETE 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300330 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario14)TripGenerationETE APPENDIXKEvacuationRoadwayNetwork PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORKAsdiscussedinSection1.3,alink nodeanalysisnetworkwasconstructedtomodeltheroadwaynetworkwithinthestudyarea.FigureK 1providesanoverviewofthelink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thefigurehasbeendividedupinto21moredetailedfigures(FigureK 2throughFigureK 21)whichshoweachofthelinksandnodesinthenetwork.TheanalysisnetworkwascalibratedusingtheobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveyconductedinDecember2011.TableK 1liststhecharacteristicsofeachroadwaysectionmodeledintheETEanalysis.Eachlinkisidentifiedbyitsroadnameandtheupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers.ThegeographiclocationofeachlinkcanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovidedinTableK 1.TheroadwaytypeidentifiedinTableK 1isbasedonthefollowingcriteria: Freeway:limitedaccesshighway,2ormorelanesineachdirection,highfreeflowspeeds Freewayramp:rampontooroffofalimitedaccesshighway Majorarterial:3ormorelanesineachdirection Minorarterial:2ormorelanesineachdirection Collector:singlelaneineachdirection Localroadways:singlela neineachdirection,localroadswithlowfreeflowspeedsTheterm,"No.ofLanes"inTableK 1identifiesthenumberoflanesthatextendthroughoutthelengthofthelink.Manylinkshaveadditionallanesontheimmediateapproachtoanintersection(turnpockets);thesehav ebeenrecordedandenteredintotheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.AsdiscussedinSection1.3,lanewidthandshoulderwidthwerenotphysicallymeasuredduringtheroadsurvey.Rather,estimatesofthesemeasureswerebasedonvisualobservationsandrecordedimages.TableK 2identifieseac hnodeinthenetworkthatiscontrolledandthetypeofcontrol(stopsign,yieldsign,pre timedsignal,actuatedsignal,trafficcontrolpoint)atthatnode.UncontrollednodesarenotincludedinTableK 2.Thelocationofeachnodecanbeobservedbyreferencingthegridmapnumberprovided.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 1.Salem HopeCreekNGSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristicsLink#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber113US 6FREEWAY2227212102250702021425US 6FREEWAY352021210225070203244SR3FREEWAY50352121022507044245SR3FREEWAY1423212102250704531US 6FREEWAY22272121022507020634US 6FREEWAY74472121022507020743US 6FREEWAY7438212102250702084717US 6FREEWAY56502121022507020956US 6FREEWAY7542121022506520105715US 6FREEWAY12382121022507020115716US 6OFFRAMPFREEWAYRAMP4441124157530201265US 6FREEWAY75421210225065201367US 6FREEWAY37602100225055201476US 6FREEWAY37602100225055201578SR3FREEWAY27311210225060201687SR3FREEWAY27321210225060201789SR3FREEWAY8202121022507020188468US 6ONRAMPFROMSR3FREEWAYRAMP5721122135030201998SR3FREEWAY820212102250702020910SR3FREEWAY91422121022507020219470SR3OFFRAMPTOUS 6FREEWAYRAMP123311221700402022109SR3FREEWAY91132121022507020231011SR3FREEWAY9452121022507020241110SR3FREEWAY9452121022507020 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber251112SR3FREEWAY10922121022507020261211SR3FREEWAY10922121022507020271213SR3FREEWAY7532121022507020281312SR3FREEWAY7532121022507020291314SR3FREEWAY66422121022507015301413SR3FREEWAY66432121022507015311415SR3FREEWAY83842121022507015321514SR3FREEWAY83842121022507015331516SR3FREEWAY87532121022507015341615SR3FREEWAY87532121022507015351617SR3FREEWAY9702121022507015361716SR3FREEWAY9702121022507015371718SR3FREEWAY36502121022507015381817SR3FREEWAY36522121022507015391819SR3FREEWAY123082121022507015401918SR3FREEWAY123082121022507015411920SR3FREEWAY45502121022507011422019SR3FREEWAY45462121022507011432021SR3FREEWAY55182121022507011442120SR3FREEWAY54392121022507011452122SR3FREEWAY22602121022507011462221SR3FREEWAY22602121022507011472223SR3FREEWAY8552121022507011482322SR3FREEWAY8552121022507011492324SR3FREEWAY16882121022507011 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber502423SR3FREEWAY16882121022507011512425SR3FREEWAY705321210225070105224316SR3OFFRAMPTOLONGPONDRDFREEWAYRAMP2379112217504011532524SR3FREEWAY70662121022507010542526SR3FREEWAY5553121022507010552625SR3FREEWAY5552121022507010562627SR3FREEWAY12373121022507010572726SR3FREEWAY12373121022507010582728SR3FREEWAY35653121022507010592827SR3FREEWAY35653121022507010602829SR3FREEWAY8613121022507010612847SR3OFFRAMPTOUS 44FREEWAYRAMP8731121017004510622928SR3FREEWAY8613121022507010632930SR3FREEWAY9672121022507010643029SR3FREEWAY9672121022507010653031SR3FREEWAY3292121022507010663049SR3OFFRAMPTOUS 44FREEWAYRAMP13321121017004510673130SR3FREEWAY32911210225070106831710SR3FREEWAY3691212102250708693233SR3FREEWAY10982121022507087032710SR3FREEWAY983212102250708713332SR3FREEWAY1098212102250708723334SR3FREEWAY2515212102250708733433SR3FREEWAY2515212102250708 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber743435SR3FREEWAY1846212102250708753534SR3FREEWAY1846212102250708763536SR3FREEWAY58922121022507087735124SR3OFFRAMPTOSR3AFREEWAYRAMP90711221750458783635SR3FREEWAY5892212102250708793637SR3FREEWAY2659212102250707803736SR3FREEWAY2660212102250707813738SR3FREEWAY683212102250707823837SR3FREEWAY683212102250707833839SR3FREEWAY714212102250707843938SR3FREEWAY714212102250707853940SR3FREEWAY10556212102250704864039SR3FREEWAY10556212102250704874041SR3FREEWAY2491212102250704884140SR3FREEWAY2491212102250704894142SR3FREEWAY1915212102250704904241SR3FREEWAY1915212102250704914243SR3FREEWAY3356212102250704924342SR3FREEWAY3356212102250704934344SR3FREEWAY1327221210225070494442SR3FREEWAY5035212102250704954443SR3FREEWAY1327221210225070496452SR3FREEWAY1423212102250704974546SR3FREEWAY8470212102250701984645SR3FREEWAY8467212102250701 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber994729US 44OFFRAMPTOSR3FREEWAYRAMP74911210135030101004748SR3OFFRAMPTOUS 44FREEWAYRAMP81111210170045101014847US 44OFFRAMPTOSR3FREEWAYRAMP80811210135030101024849US 44FREEWAY127311210170070101034948US 44FREEWAY127311210170070101044950US 44FREEWAY388721210225070101055049US 44FREEWAY388821210225070101065051US 44FREEWAY124121210225070101075150US 44FREEWAY124121210225070101085152US 44FREEWAY52492121022507091095251US 44FREEWAY52552121022507091105253US 44FREEWAY55792121022507091115352US 44FREEWAY55602121022507091125354US 44FREEWAY49002121022507091135453US 44FREEWAY49002121022507091145455US 44FREEWAY200821210225070911554257US 44OFFRAMPTOSPRINGSTFREEWAYRAMP1151112417004091165554US 44FREEWAY20082121022507091175556US 44FREEWAY105592121022507061185655US 44FREEWAY105592121022507061195657US 44FREEWAY202821210225070612056227US 44OFFRAMPTOSR58FREEWAYRAMP1005112417504561215756US 44FREEWAY20282121022507061225758US 44MINORARTERIAL138371121017007013 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber1235857US 44MINORARTERIAL1383011210170070131245859US 44MINORARTERIAL665311210175065131255958US 44MINORARTERIAL665311210170065131265960US 44MINORARTERIAL97011210170060131276059US 44MINORARTERIAL97011210175060131286061US 44MINORARTERIAL163611210170060131296160US 44MINORARTERIAL163611210170060131306263SR28MINORARTERIAL607421210190060191316362SR28MINORARTERIAL607621210190060191326382SR28ROTARYMINORARTERIAL34521210190030191336465SR28MINORARTERIAL403621210190055191346483SR28ROTARYMINORARTERIAL2552122190030191356564SR28MINORARTERIAL403621210190055191366566SR28FREEWAY164831210225070191376665SR28FREEWAY164931210225070191386667SR28FREEWAY1563312102250701913966479SR25OFFRAMPTOUS 6FREEWAYRAMP8921122170040191406766SR28FREEWAY156431210225070191416768SR28FREEWAY336931210225070191426867SR28FREEWAY336931210225070191436869SR28FREEWAY401931210225070191446968SR28FREEWAY400331210225070191456970SR28FREEWAY919031210225070191467069SR28FREEWAY917831210225070191477071SR28FREEWAY95203121022507019 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber1487170SR28FREEWAY951831210225070191497172SR28FREEWAY375931210225070191507271SR28FREEWAY377431210225070191517273SR28FREEWAY321231210225070181527372SR28FREEWAY321231210225070181537374SR28FREEWAY1326231210225070181547473SR28FREEWAY1326231210225070181557475SR28FREEWAY151921210225070181567484I 195ONRAMPFROMI 495FREEWAYRAMP190111210170050181577574SR28FREEWAY151931210225070181587576I 495FREEWAY179531210225070181597675I 495FREEWAY179521210225070181607677I 495FREEWAY1176121210225070181617686I 195ONRAMPFROMI 495FREEWAYRAMP144311210170045181627776I 495FREEWAY1176021210225070181637778I 495FREEWAY879621210225070181647877I 495FREEWAY879621210225070181657879I 495FREEWAY1297521210225070131667978I 495FREEWAY1297521210225070131677980I 495FREEWAY549321210225070131688079I 495FREEWAY548521210225070131698081I 495FREEWAY384821210225070131708180I 495FREEWAY38492121022507013 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber1718264SR28ROTARYMINORARTERIAL20421210190030191728363SR28ROTARYMINORARTERIAL26721210190030191738475I 495ONRAMPFROMI 195FREEWAYRAMP158211210135030181748485I 195ONRAMPFROMI 495FREEWAYRAMP104011210170045181758584I 495ONRAMPFROMI 195FREEWAYRAMP103511210157535181768586I 195on rampfromI 495FREEWAYRAMP168311210170070181778675I 195ONRAMPFROMI 495FREEWAYRAMP155211210170045181788685I 495on rampfromI 195FREEWAYRAMP168311210170070181798687I 195FREEWAY148121210225070181808786I 195FREEWAY148121210225070181818788I 195FREEWAY1921212102250701818287370I 195OFFRAMPTOSR28FREEWAYRAMP10001122175045181838887I 195FREEWAY192121210225070181848889I 195FREEWAY4597212102250701818588369I 195OFFRAMPTOSR28FREEWAYRAMP8481122175045181868988I 195FREEWAY459021210225070181879091EDISONACCESSRDCOLLECTOR22461122175035111889192EDISONACCESSRDCOLLECTOR51861100170050111899193ROCKYHILLRDCOLLECTOR51141122170045111909195ROCKYHILLRDCOLLECTOR45091122170045111919296SR3AMINORARTERIAL14661122175040111929394ROCKYHILLRDCOLLECTOR5811112217504011 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber19394100SR3AMINORARTERIAL14542122190045111949591ROCKYHILLRDCOLLECTOR45091122175045111959596WHITEHORSERDCOLLECTOR262111221750351119696686BEAVERDAMRDCOLLECTOR188611221700401119796687SR3AMINORARTERIAL265411221700401119897102SR3AMINORARTERIAL20681122170045161999897MANOMETPOINTRDCOLLECTOR564111221750401220099293BEAVERDAMRDCOLLECTOR8817112217004015201100296PLYMOUTHPLANTATIONHIGHWAYMINORARTERIAL1098212219005011202100625SR3AMINORARTERIAL62121221900401120310192ELLIOTLNCOLLECTOR904112215753511204102103SR3AMINORARTERIAL3141112217004516205103688SR3AMINORARTERIAL3061112217004516206104105SR3AMINORARTERIAL4178112217505016207105689SR3AMINORARTERIAL2769112217005016208106107SR3AMINORARTERIAL3806112217005016209107108SR3AMINORARTERIAL5206112217005016210108109SR3AMINORARTERIAL6674112217005016211109110SR3AMINORARTERIAL884112217004020212110460HERRINGPONDRDCOLLECTOR2246112217004020213110462STATERDCOLLECTOR5200112217005020214111112SR3AMINORARTERIAL2002112217004511215111297CLIFFORDRDCOLLECTOR975112215753511216112113SR3AMINORARTERIAL6394112217504511 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber217113114SR3AMINORARTERIAL3810112217004011218113312SANDWICHSTCOLLECTOR630112217004011219114115SR3AMINORARTERIAL1095112215753511220114314SOUTHSTCOLLECTOR2786112217004011221115116SR3AMINORARTERIAL557112217503011222115240SANDWICHSTCOLLECTOR407112211252511223116117SR3AMINORARTERIAL2321112217503011224117118SR3AMINORARTERIAL3481112213503010225117250SAMOSETSTCOLLECTOR1485112217503510226118117SR3AMINORARTERIAL3489112217503010227118119SR3AMINORARTERIAL318411221750358228119120SR3AMINORARTERIAL169411221750358229119280CHERRYSTCOLLECTOR60211221750408230120635SR3AMINORARTERIAL78511221575358231121122SR3AMINORARTERIAL154311221575358232121268CRESCENTSTCOLLECTOR114311221350308233122123SR3AMINORARTERIAL38551122157540823412335SR3ONRAMPFROMSR3AFREEWAYRAMP112711221700458235123124SR3AMINORARTERIAL55211221750408236124123SR3AMINORARTERIAL55211221700408237124125SR3AMINORARTERIAL24411221750408238125124SR3AMINORARTERIAL24411221750408239125126SR3AMINORARTERIAL137211221750408240126125SR3AMINORARTERIAL137211221750408 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber241126127SR3AMINORARTERIAL43911221700408242126614BROOKSTCOLLECTOR220211221700507243127126SR3AMINORARTERIAL43911221750408244127128SR3AMINORARTERIAL68311221700407245127495LANDINGRDCOLLECTOR243911221700408246128129SR106MINORARTERIAL202311221700407247128138SR3AMINORARTERIAL230911221750457248129130SR106MINORARTERIAL224211221750457249129653ELMSTCOLLECTOR91011221750357250130131SR27MINORARTERIAL992711221700507251130138EVERGREENSTCOLLECTOR318911221750407252130659SR106MINORARTERIAL291011221700507253131132SR27MINORARTERIAL509011221700557254132657SR27MINORARTERIAL237311221700503255133134SR27MINORARTERIAL111911221700453256133509LAKESTCOLLECTOR84111221700403257134135SR27MINORARTERIAL495311221750503258135136SR27MINORARTERIAL597611221750503259135511SR36MINORARTERIAL744311221700503260136485SR27MINORARTERIAL334511221750503261138130EVERGREENSTCOLLECTOR318911221750407262138639SR3AMINORARTERIAL338811221750407263139140SR3AMINORARTERIAL62621221900507264139164SR53MINORARTERIAL240411221700507265140139SR3AMINORARTERIAL62611221750507 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber266140141SR3AMINORARTERIAL175221221900507267141140SR3AMINORARTERIAL175321221900507268141142SR3AMINORARTERIAL91121221900458269141522SR3ONRAMPFROMSR3AFREEWAYRAMP48211221350308270142141SR3AMINORARTERIAL91121221900458271142143SR3AMINORARTERIAL111911221700408272143142SR3AMINORARTERIAL111911221700408273143144SR3AMINORARTERIAL664811221750404274144143SR3AMINORARTERIAL663811221700404275144145SR3AMINORARTERIAL395011221700404276144521TOBEYGARDENSSTCOLLECTOR552011221700404277145146SR3AMINORARTERIAL499811221750404278146147SR3AMINORARTERIAL390111221750404279146499SR14MINORARTERIAL610311221700454280147499SR139MINORARTERIAL547911221700404281147677SR3AMINORARTERIAL284111221700404282148149SR3AMINORARTERIAL154211221750354283149150SR3AMINORARTERIAL53721221900404284150151SR3AMINORARTERIAL165621221750404285151152SR3AMINORARTERIAL121611221700404286151704SR139MINORARTERIAL26621221900404287152151SR3AMINORARTERIAL121611221750404288152153SR3AMINORARTERIAL506111221750404289153154SR3AMINORARTERIAL519211221700404 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber290153541FURNACESTCOLLECTOR332111221750404291154553SR3AMINORARTERIAL417911221700402292156157SR106MINORARTERIAL144011221700506293157158SR106MINORARTERIAL693211221700506294158159SR106MINORARTERIAL361011221750506295159160SR106MINORARTERIAL37111221750406296159487SR58MINORARTERIAL226111221700406297160161SR106MINORARTERIAL36411221750406298161162SR106MINORARTERIAL341511221700406299162564SR106MINORARTERIAL308711221700406300164681SR53MINORARTERIAL345311221700504301165166SR53MINORARTERIAL770811221700504302166652FRANKLINSTCOLLECTOR193111221700404303166675SR53MINORARTERIAL546411221700554304167168SR53MINORARTERIAL883611221750553305168169SR53MINORARTERIAL155811221750403306169170SR53MINORARTERIAL544311221750403307170171SR53MINORARTERIAL220411221700403308172473US 6MINORARTERIAL8023121017506020309173174US 6MINORARTERIAL4399212217506019310174175US 6MINORARTERIAL5150212219006019311175176US 6MINORARTERIAL2290212217505519312176177US 6MINORARTERIAL1177212219005019313177178US 6ROTARYMINORARTERIAL4953121019003519314178179US 6ROTARYMINORARTERIAL5483121019003519 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber315178478SR25ONRAMPFROMUS 6FREEWAYRAMP1477112217004519316179180US 6MINORARTERIAL4074212017506019317179347MAINSTMINORARTERIAL280212219003019318180181US 6MINORARTERIAL1649212219006019319181699US 6ROTARYMINORARTERIAL160212019003019320182706US 6MINORARTERIAL2446212219005019321183184US 6MINORARTERIAL2043212219005019322184185US 6MINORARTERIAL3422212217505019323185186US 6MINORARTERIAL1191212217505019324186187US 6MINORARTERIAL836212219005019325187188US 6MINORARTERIAL1249212217505019326188189US 6MINORARTERIAL1013212219005018327189190US 6MINORARTERIAL8312121017506018328189382US 6MINORARTERIAL313212219004018329190191US 6MINORARTERIAL22581121017004018330190357US 6MINORARTERIAL1681112217504018331191360US 6MINORARTERIAL72411121017504018332192193US 6MINORARTERIAL24301121017004018333193391US 6MINORARTERIAL2256112217004018334193399US 6MINORARTERIAL4631121017504018335194395US 6MINORARTERIAL2352121017504018336196117NPARKAVECOLLECTOR785112217503010337197198SAMOSETSTMINORARTERIAL286212219004010 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber33819826SR3ONRAMPFROMSAMOSETSTFREEWAYRAMP823112101350301033919827SR3ONRAMPFROMSAMOSETSTFREEWAYRAMP1048112217005010340198199SAMOSETSTMINORARTERIAL791212217504010341199198SAMOSETSTMAJORARTERIAL791112217004010342199200SAMOSETSTMINORARTERIAL1522212217504510343200199SAMOSETSTMINORARTERIAL1522212217504510344200242PILGRIMHILLRDCOLLECTOR1629112217504010345200665SAMOSETSTMINORARTERIAL1773212219004510346201202CARVERRDMINORARTERIAL1376212217504510347201244SEVENHILLSRDCOLLECTOR3401112217503510348202251PLYMPTONRDCOLLECTOR2735112217505010349202616CARVERRDMINORARTERIAL1271212219004010350203666CARVERRDCOLLECTOR324511221700459351204205CENTERSTCOLLECTOR552112217004014352204230CENTERSTCOLLECTOR7806112217504014353205206SILVIASTCOLLECTOR6532112217504014354205236CENTERSTCOLLECTOR5805112217005014355206207PURCHASESTCOLLECTOR3596112217004013356206229SR58MINORARTERIAL6751112217504513357206230SR58MINORARTERIAL7851112217505014358207711PURCHASESTCOLLECTOR6462112217004013359208216PURCHASESTCOLLECTOR380112217004013360209210PURCHASESTCOLLECTOR2240112217004013 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber361210211ROCKYGUTTERSTCOLLECTOR473112217004013362211212MILLERSTCOLLECTOR512112217004013363211601ROCKYGUTTERSTCOLLECTOR796112217004013364212213SR28MINORARTERIAL2262112217004013365212601SR28MINORARTERIAL524112217004013366213212SR28MINORARTERIAL2262112217004013367213214SR28MINORARTERIAL1015112217004013368213220I 495ONRAMPFROMSR25FREEWAYRAMP1076112213503013369214213SR28MINORARTERIAL10151121017004013370214219SR28MINORARTERIAL75081121017004013371214221I 495ONRAMPFROMSR25FREEWAYRAMP1077112213503013372215204WHENHAMRDCOLLECTOR7339112217004514373216209PURCHASESTCOLLECTOR6454112217004013374217199DRIVEWAYLOCALROADWAY267212217502510375218197SR3OFFRAMPTOSAMOSETSTFREEWAYRAMP5551121017504510376219214SR28MINORARTERIAL75081121017004013377219222SPRUCESTCOLLECTOR193811221700401337822080I 495ONRAMPFROMSR25FREEWAYRAMP79111221350301337922180I 495ONRAMPFROMSR25FREEWAYRAMP783112213503013380222223SPRUCESTCOLLECTOR418112217004013381224219SR28MINORARTERIAL2276112217004013 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber382224222LOCUSTSTCOLLECTOR919112217004013383225224SR28MINORARTERIAL3543112217004013384226484SR58MINORARTERIAL160911221700506385226588PARSONAGERDCOLLECTOR412311241700406386226649SR58MINORARTERIAL74301122175055638722757US 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FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow 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44ONRAMPFROMSPRINGSTFREEWAYRAMP99111221700409443257253SPRINGSTCOLLECTOR214511221750409444257256SPRINGSTCOLLECTOR387611221700409445258226MAYFLOWERRDCOLLECTOR652611221750506446258256BROOKSTCOLLECTOR318511221700406447259251COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR1140112217504010448259273COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR714112217004010449260261COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR1538112217504010450260273COMMERCEWAYMINORARTERIAL397212219004010451261260COMMERCEWAYMINORARTERIAL1538212217504010452261274US 44ONRAMPFROMCOMMERCEWAYFREEWAYRAMP507212219004010453261275COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR557112217004010 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber454262263COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR1347112217504010455262275COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR1089112217004010456262276US 44ONRAMPFROMCOMMERCEWAYFREEWAYRAMP916112217004010457263262COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR1347112217504010458263264ENTERPRISEWAYCOLLECTOR1571112217004010459264263ENTERPRISEWAYCOLLECTOR1571112217504010460264265INDEPENDENCEMALLWAYCOLLECTOR296411221750408461265264INDEPENDENCEMALLWAYCOLLECTOR296611221700408462265266INDEPENDENCEMALLWAYCOLLECTOR35021221750408463266265INDEPENDENCEMALLWAYCOLLECTOR35021221750408464266287SMITHLNCOLLECTOR43821221900408465267288SR3ONRAMPFROMSMITHLNFREEWAYRAMP46621221900458466267637SMITHLNCOLLECTOR21911221700408467268267SMITHLNCOLLECTOR289611221750358468269259INDUSTRIALPARKRDCOLLECTOR1545112217503510469269260CHRISTAMCAULIFFEBLVDCOLLECTOR665112217503510470270260COLONYPLACERDCOLLECTOR914212217504010471271270COLONYVILLAGEDRCOLLECTOR982212217504010472272270COLONYPLACERDCOLLECTOR2137212217504010473273259COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR714112217504010 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber474273260COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR39721221750401047527450US 44ONRAMPFROMCOMMERCEWAYFREEWAYRAMP857112217004010476274261US 44OFFRAMPTOCOMMERCEWAYFREEWAYRAMP507112217504510477275261COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR557212217504010478275262COMMERCEWAYCOLLECTOR108911221750401047927651US 44ONRAMPFROMCOMMERCEWAYFREEWAYRAMP1352112217004010480276262US 44OFFRAMPTOCOMMERCEWAYFREEWAYRAMP916112217504010481277119PRINCESTCOLLECTOR119211221750358482278263CHERRYSTCOLLECTOR2406112217504010483279269INDUSTRIALPARKRDCOLLECTOR3506112417004010484279278INDUSTRIALPARKRDCOLLECTOR2590112217004010485280119CHERRYSTCOLLECTOR60211221750408486280278CHERRYSTCOLLECTOR461011221700408487281280STANDISHAVECOLLECTOR358211221750358488281683STANDISHAVECOLLECTOR3179112217503510489282120CORDAGEPARKCIRCOLLECTOR45811221750308490283265WILLIAMGOULDWAYCOLLECTOR72411221750408491284266INDEPENDENCEMALLWAYMINORARTERIAL27621221750358492285284CRANBERRYRDMINORARTERIAL51921221750358493286284INDEPENDENCEMALLWAYCOLLECTOR75311221750358 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow 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45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow 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46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow 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6MINORARTERIAL249212219003019596350180COUNTYSTCOLLECTOR1133112217503519597350700PURITANRDCOLLECTOR1259112415753519598351182ONSETAVECOLLECTOR1434112217504019 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber599351352ONSETAVECOLLECTOR5343112217004019600352351ONSETAVECOLLECTOR5343112217004019601352353ONSETAVECOLLECTOR2906112217004019602353354UNIONAVECOLLECTOR2255112217004019603353355ONSETAVECOLLECTOR1926112217004019604354184MAINAVECOLLECTOR3520112217004019605355356ONSETAVECOLLECTOR5319112217004019606356357DEPOTSTCOLLECTOR1574112217504018607357188DEPOTSTCOLLECTOR467112217504018608358359GLENCHARLIERDCOLLECTOR7737112215753519609359188GLENCHARLIERDCOLLECTOR3493112217504019610360192US 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195ONRAMPFROMSR28FREEWAYRAMP1024112217004518625370371SR28MINORARTERIAL1166212217504018626371370SR28MINORARTERIAL1166112217504018627371372SR28MINORARTERIAL979112217504018628372371SR28MINORARTERIAL979112217504018629372373SR28MINORARTERIAL2836112217004518630372409TOBEYRDCOLLECTOR3439112217004018631373372SR28MINORARTERIAL2834112217504518632373374SR28MINORARTERIAL6015112217004518633374373SR28MINORARTERIAL6017112217004518634374375SR28MINORARTERIAL2616112217504518635375374SR28MINORARTERIAL2616112217004518636375376SR28MINORARTERIAL6609112217004017637375385SR58MINORARTERIAL1490112217004018638375387COUNTYRDCOLLECTOR7758112217004018639376377SR28MINORARTERIAL2754112217004017640377225SR28MINORARTERIAL5202112217004017641378379MAPLESPRINGSRDCOLLECTOR185811221575351864237973SR28ONRAMPFROMMAPLESPRINGSRDFREEWAYRAMP889112213503018643379381MAPLESPRINGSRDCOLLECTOR956112217004018644380364MAPLESPRINGSRDMINORARTERIAL526212217504018645380365MAPLESPRINGSRDCOLLECTOR410112217004018 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 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495ONRAMPFROMSR58FREEWAYRAMP656112215753518691418419EASTSTCOLLECTOR2892112217004014692418421PINESTCOLLECTOR5237112217004014693419383BEACHSTCOLLECTOR5302112217004018 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 53KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber694420418ROCHERSTERRDCOLLECTOR1205112217004014695421225PINESTCOLLECTOR6869112217004013696422663SMEADOWRDCOLLECTOR7296112217004014697423231SMEADOWRDCOLLECTOR6650112217504014698424245SMEADOWRDCOLLECTOR1199112217504010699424422SMEADOWRDCOLLECTOR43561122170040107004251US 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6ONRAMPFROMSR130FREEWAYRAMP577112217003020728439438SR130MINORARTERIAL5445112217004020729440427MAINSTCOLLECTOR842112215753520730440438BEALEAVECOLLECTOR1393112215753520731441429TUPPERRDCOLLECTOR2170112217504020732441438SR130MINORARTERIAL2346112217004020733441442SR130MINORARTERIAL2336112217004020734442431SR130MINORARTERIAL4836112217004020735443428JARVESSTCOLLECTOR922112217504020736444428JARVESSTCOLLECTOR921112217504020737445429TUPPERRDCOLLECTOR1003112217504020738446430MERCHANTSRDCOLLECTOR778112217504020739447432SR6AMINORARTERIAL1465112219004020740447433BENABBEYRDCOLLECTOR783112217503020741447448SR6AMINORARTERIAL2132112217004020742448434ADAMSSTCOLLECTOR1092112213503020 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 55KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow 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PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 56KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber767468469SR3OFFRAMPTOUS 6FREEWAYRAMP424112213503020768469471US 6MINORARTERIAL429212217504020769470172SR3OFFRAMPTOUS 6FREEWAYRAMP182112217004020770470471SR3OFFRAMPTOUS 6FREEWAYRAMP138112217504020771471172US 6MINORARTERIAL78212219004020772472173US 6MINORARTERIAL2694212217506020773473472US 6MINORARTERIAL20052121019006020774474473CHURCHLNCOLLECTOR453112217503520775475463CANALRDCOLLECTOR519112217504020776476176NIGHTINGALEPONDRDCOLLECTOR731112217504019777477176ANDYOLIVIACOLLECTOR1093112217504019778478178SR25OFFRAMPTOUS 6FREEWAYRAMP1480112217004019779478479SR25ONRAMPFROMUS 6FREEWAYRAMP130711221700451978047967SR25ONRAMPFROMUS 6FREEWAYRAMP1251112217004519781479478SR25OFFRAMPTOUS 6FREEWAYRAMP1308112217004019782480358GLENCHARLIERDCOLLECTOR2611112215753519783481480PLYMOUTHAVECOLLECTOR6842112217004019784482481WAREHAMRDCOLLECTOR4617112217004019785483157MAINSTCOLLECTOR554511221700406786483484MAINSTCOLLECTOR645211221700406787484589SR58MINORARTERIAL361411221700456788485137SR27MINORARTERIAL226611221700503789485489SR58MINORARTERIAL237511221700403 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 57KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow 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PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 59KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow 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PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 62KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow 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PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 63KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow 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Speed(mph)GridNumber1009655407WAREHAMSTCOLLECTOR45401122170045181010656679FEDERALRDCOLLECTOR50571124170040181011657133SR27MINORARTERIAL5440112217005031012658156SR106MINORARTERIAL3254112217505061013659661SR106MINORARTERIAL4209112217005071014660658SR106MINORARTERIAL2561112217005061015661660SR106MINORARTERIAL4358112217005071016662253PARTINGWAYSRDCOLLECTOR2484112217503591017663423SMEADOWRDCOLLECTOR60151122170040141018664341PLYMOUTLNCOLLECTOR20171122175040191019665200SAMOSETSTCOLLECTOR17732122175040101020665201SAMOSETSTMINORARTERIAL24892122175045101021666215CARVERRDCOLLECTOR2679112217004591022667252PLYMPTONRDCOLLECTOR2666112217504591023668203CARVERRDCOLLECTOR40291122170045101024669121SR3AMINORARTERIAL949112215753581025670496LORINGRDCOLLECTOR1558112217004081026671505CHANDLERSTCOLLECTOR1485112215753541027672165SUMMERSTCOLLECTOR1453112217504041028672673CHANDLERSTCOLLECTOR7215112215753541029673671CHANDLERSTCOLLECTOR1840112215753541030674167SR14MINORARTERIAL1704112217504541031675167SR53MINORARTERIAL1919112217505541032676611UNIONSTCOLLECTOR7591112217004041033676674SR14MINORARTERIAL590911221700454 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 67KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber1034677612SR3AMINORARTERIAL2961112217004041035678328ALDENRDCOLLECTOR55061122175040151036678592ALDENRDCOLLECTOR37021124170040151037679403FEDERALRDCOLLECTOR74311124170040181038679655HAMMONDSTCOLLECTOR47791122112525181039680292LONGPONDRDCOLLECTOR54861120170040151040680328LONGPONDRDCOLLECTOR45981120175040151041681165SR53MINORARTERIAL2890112217505041042681559WinterStCOLLECTOR4303112217004041043682519ELMSTCOLLECTOR2984112217004041044683629SAMOSETSTCOLLECTOR12591122157535101045684598WATERCOURSERDCOLLECTOR33211122170040101046685598BILLINGTONSTCOLLECTOR2096112217004010104768699BEAVERDAMRDCOLLECTOR6101112217004015104868796SR3AMINORARTERIAL2661112217504011104968797SR3AMINORARTERIAL28061122175040151050688104SR3AMINORARTERIAL45481122170045161051689106SR3AMINORARTERIAL26331122170050161052690158SR36MINORARTERIAL4536112217005061053691560GROVESTCOLLECTOR4056112215753561054692556GROVESTCOLLECTOR8871112215753561055692561LAKESTCOLLECTOR3745112215753561056693684ROCKYPONDRDCOLLECTOR43101122170040141057694249CRANBERRYRDCOLLECTOR74231122157535141058695303JORDANRDCOLLECTOR3572112217503515 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 68KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber1059696254BROOKSTCOLLECTOR2488112217004061060697714HALFWAYPONDRDCOLLECTOR40931122157535141061698329LONGPONDRDCOLLECTOR23171120170040151062699631US 6ROTARYMINORARTERIAL1652120190030191063700699LINCOLNAVECOLLECTOR12631122157535191064701349MAINSTCOLLECTOR4331122170040191065702701ACADEMYDRCOLLECTOR37691122175035191066703149SR139MINORARTERIAL458212217503541067704551SR139MINORARTERIAL3134112217004041068705179HEADOFTHEBAYRDCOLLECTOR22291122170040191069705350PURITANRDCOLLECTOR47011124157535191070706183US 6MINORARTERIAL24642122190050191071707229PLYMOUTHSTCOLLECTOR4730112217503561072707237PLYMOUTHSTCOLLECTOR31101124157535131073708709EMAINSTCOLLECTOR1304112417004013107471031SR3FREEWAY3690212102250708107571032SR3FREEWAY9832121022507081076710266SR3OFFRAMPTOSMITHLNFREEWAYRAMP844112417503081077711208PURCHASESTCOLLECTOR77661122170040131078712711ROCKYMEADOWSTCOLLECTOR28981124170040131079713482WAREHAMRDCOLLECTOR80441122157535151080714694LOWERCOLLEGEPONDRDCOLLECTOR391311221350301410817155US 6FREEWAY123721210225070201082715717US 6FREEWAY45402121022507020 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 69KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumber1083716448US 6OFFRAMPFREEWAYRAMP30721241900352010847174US 6FREEWAY564721210225070201085717715US 6FREEWAY453621210225070201086718450DRIVEWAYCOLLECTOR4411122175025201087719715US 6ONRAMPFREEWAYRAMP14051122170045201088721714LOWERCOLLEGEPONDRDCOLLECTOR11771122135030141089722721LOWERCOLLEGEPONDRDCOLLECTOR46801122135030141090723544UNIONSTCOLLECTOR5817112217504041091723553PINESTLOCALROADWAY7768112417004021092723724UNIONSTCOLLECTOR7559112217004021093724554UNIONSTCOLLECTOR994112217004021094725724HIGHLANDSTLOCALROADWAY2926112417004021095726725HIGHLANDSTLOCALROADWAY28381124170040210968001425US 6FREEWAY132821210225070201097804646SR3FREEWAY13272121022507011098806262SR28MINORARTERIAL159121210190060191099808181I 495FREEWAY10552121022507013ExitLink1378137SR27MINORARTERIAL120811221700503ExitLink1558155SR3AMINORARTERIAL94111221700402ExitLink1638163SR106MINORARTERIAL108411221700406ExitLink1718171SR53MINORARTERIAL86911221700403ExitLink4898489SR58MINORARTERIAL114711221700403ExitLink6478601SR28MINORARTERIAL1123112217004013ExitLink6518651SR105MINORARTERIAL130311241700406ExitLink7208720SR6AMINORARTERIAL455112217004020 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 70KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLane Width(ft.)Shoulder Width(ft.)Saturation FlowRate(pcphpl)FreeFlow Speed(mph)GridNumberExitLink468046SR3FREEWAY1327212102250701ExitLink618061US 44MINORARTERIAL7591121017006013ExitLink628062SR28MINORARTERIAL15912121019006019ExitLink818081I 495FREEWAY10552121022507013ExitLink898089I 195FREEWAY17922121022507018ExitLink1958195US 6MINORARTERIAL13992121019004018ExitLink2238223SPRUCESTCOLLECTOR2131112217004017ExitLink5158515OLDHAMSTCOLLECTOR119311221700403ExitLink5548554UNIONSTCOLLECTOR67411221700402ExitLink3898389COUNTYRDCOLLECTOR1799112217004018ExitLink3908390FEARINGHILLRDCOLLECTOR1644112217004017ExitLink4258001US 6FREEWAY12862121022507020ExitLink7098709EMAINSTCOLLECTOR283112417004013 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 71KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlledNodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber89170432747675TCPUncontrolled20119143022758160TCPUncontrolled20258789592808859TCPUncontrolled10308742422814258TCPUncontrolled10418667092845169TCPUncontrolled4508704172811008TCPUncontrolled10598240662793151Actuated13608231042793025Yield13639054932732592Yield19649053652732945Yield19669032402738171TCPUncontrolled19829055682732929Yield19839052562732715Yield19919078672804559TCPActuated11929078932799413Stop11948989962803841TCPActuated11959106592801018Stop11969092342798819TCPActuated11979133272795656TCPActuated161008975542804024TCPUncontrolled111059185762780617TCPActuated161099145142760764Stop201109145512759885TCPUncontrolled201118959982804330Stop111128942842805364Stop111138881842807279TCPActuated111148848192809037Stop111168835072810037Actuated111178818062811615TCPActuated101198777112816828TCPActuated81208765512818063Actuated81218741412819777TCPUncontrolled81228727672820480Stop81238691332821582TCPUncontrolled81248685972821713TCPActuated81258683762821816Actuated81268671432822417TCPActuated8 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 72KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber1288663932823250TCPUncontrolled71298644032823620Stop71308622352824191TCPActuated71318548712830849Stop71328498802831848TCPUncontrolled61348451582838817Stop31358404172839866Actuated31368348432841632Pretimed31388652422825253Actuated71398647432830163TCPActuated71418668332831128TCPUncontrolled81438688292831480Stop81448742012835256TCPActuated41458758502838845Stop41468756452843775TCPActuated41478757892847673TCPActuated41488702002858007TCPActuated41498704272859532TCPActuated41508699312859738Stop41518683652860274TCPActuated41528683652861490Stop41538656212865678Actuated41568457382821504TCPActuated61578442982821535Stop61588378982824198Stop61598343772824229Actuated61608341162823965Actuated61618338762823691Actuated61658623862838585TCPActuated41668566762843762Stop41678528602850083TCPActuated41688485852857804Actuated31698481652859305Actuated31708449982863730Actuated31729166902747081Yield201739122582743898Actuated191749094612740548Actuated191769041152735986Actuated19 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 73KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber1779029532735802Yield191789027122736235Yield191799021992736042Stop191808984312734615Actuated191818969752733863Yield191828944392734932Actuated191838901532737328Yield191848881112737391Stop191858848452738359Actuated191868836832738597Actuated191888817512739298Actuated181908800012739672Actuated181948669082738125Stop181978789632809789TCPActuated101988787182809641TCPUncontrolled101998780832809170TCPActuated102008768322808303Actuated102018732622806006TCPActuated102028719362805669TCPActuated102048551712793520TCPUncontrolled142068489732791028TCPActuated132078478182787623Stop132088359292780135Stop132108326782772174Stop132128317782772072Stop132228386162761346Stop132258429712761136Stop132268426982808677Actuated62278444492799261TCPActuated62288451092798131Actuated62298457692796837Actuated62308548082785803TCPActuated142318562962783134TCPActuated142328590222776157TCPUncontrolled142348608492766401TCPActuated142358463232796599Stop62428778522807033Actuated102448731882802624TCPActuated10 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 74KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber2458730042802094Actuated102488631222769798Stop142508806942810667TCPActuated102518693862806657TCPActuated102528642542806172TCPActuated92538558532804638TCPActuated92548511642802586Stop62558454282797535Stop62578545082806309Stop92588491462808822Stop62598697122807750Actuated102608702722808706Actuated102618707182810178Actuated102628710992811779Actuated102638714502813079Actuated102658703192816384Actuated82668705012816683Actuated82678711152817948TCPActuated82698709302808604Stop102708695272809236Actuated102788737872813397Stop102808772202816480Actuated82848702732816840Actuated82909012322780710TCPUncontrolled152919004492779795TCPUncontrolled152928997602778974Stop152939032152783533TCPUncontrolled152948976992800344TCPUncontrolled112958969422798248TCPActuated112978961282803364TCPActuated113038912942790788TCPActuated153058938902802886Stop113068940982803244Stop113088926982803500Stop113108928932802645TCPUncontrolled113138856012803579Actuated113158856802803114TCPActuated113168854742802401TCPActuated11 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 75KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber3178852172801656Actuated113188852662800540Actuated113198856712798882Actuated113228880682794494Stop153288927122786084TCPActuated153329136442757492Stop203339115122748539TCPUncontrolled193419003722742005TCPActuated193459017822741588Stop193479022762735773TCPUncontrolled193498970292733620Yield193568807412737526Stop183578814872738913Actuated183608710382737425Actuated183648796522740301Actuated183658793442740521Yield183688656522741773Actuated183698639332743836Actuated183708634462744367Actuated183718627642745313Actuated183728623312746192Actuated183738607272748524Stop183758540422753360Actuated183838557942756153Stop183848555752755820TCPUncontrolled183888536472740701Stop183918675742740805Stop183948637442741821Stop183958666902738036Actuated183998686402738808Actuated184028672962741206Stop184038689852748604TCPUncontrolled184068697492741951Stop184078616112755304TCPUncontrolled184098612392742931Stop184158264772795096Stop134188546382763741Stop144208549652764867Stop14 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 76KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber4279320722737384Stop204289307222738886Actuated204299293712740747Actuated204309270102741105Actuated204319230042741693Stop204329211092742793Stop204339197262743432Actuated204349180952743995Stop204359159682744236Actuated204389298162736593Stop204409310802737488Stop204419287442738677Stop204509159672743195Actuated204519050062732663Stop194539024012731778Stop194549021042731845Stop194609137952757770TCPUncontrolled204639176652747246TCPActuated204659192572746499Stop204719167612747112TCPActuated204739159492746774TCPActuated204808905052748728Stop194818923152755326TCPUncontrolled194848423522810248Stop64858315532841325Actuated34908639752821790Stop74928573122815554TCPActuated74968688462828487Stop84978810222843479TCPUncontrolled44988865772843159TCPUncontrolled54998704232846784Stop45008672582846178Yield45018670792846195TCPUncontrolled45028671722846263Yield45038671582846110TCPUncontrolled45048669172846204TCPUncontrolled45058655842846314Stop45088497432840913Stop3 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 77KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber5098462602838870Stop35118431842846674Stop35128433852850763Actuated35148431372851964Stop35168483502839282Stop35188780772834605TCPActuated45248879912859819TCPActuated55278720202859538TCPActuated45288807902852215TCPUncontrolled45298864602852252TCPUncontrolled55308834392854080TCPActuated55348780582849247TCPUncontrolled45388797022863336Stop45418625782864409TCPActuated45448560052865287Actuated45458555872865376TCPActuated45468542052865203Actuated45478534032865055Actuated45508546452861472Stop45528615672878345Actuated25538621852873897Stop25568405542832506Stop35608482582827457TCPUncontrolled65648278392822999Stop65698738332875518Stop25708708752875285Stop25748746202874187Stop25758737792871608Stop25768735482871029Stop25848708462870112Yield25868456602853067Stop35898393912811958Stop65938809862808525Stop105958797332808048TCPActuated105978730772800935TCPActuated105988809922799193TCPUncontrolled106018314472772478Yield136048545742865245TCPActuated4 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationK 78KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NodeXCoordinateYCoordinateControlGridMap(ft)(ft)TypeNumber6098554102858388TCPActuated46118565582854559Stop46148651232821667Stop76338586932813241Stop96358758412818400Stop86378710602817736Stop86398652382828641TCPActuated76428856322855432TCPUncontrolled56458433902850321Actuated36498437412801321Actuated66528552772842430Stop46538641702822741Actuated76558638412759176Stop186838803662810535TCPActuated106928476662827342TCPUncontrolled66978818872770165TCPUncontrolled146998968162733856Stop197008965992735099Stop197018974772733521Actuated197068923252736163Stop197088235012791711Stop137118424742784277Stop137128407232786557Yield137148778622770762Stop147218783252771845Stop147238550142871021Stop27248541232878528Yield21 CoordinatesareintheNorthAmericanDatumof1983MassachusettsStatePlaneZone APPENDIXLSub areaBoundaries PilgrimNuclearPowerStationL 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1L. SUB AREABOUNDARIESSub area1TheportionofPlymouthwithinapproximately2milesofthePilgrimStationfromCliffordRoadeasttoWhiteHorseBeach,andfromManometBluffsnorthtotheStationSub area2TheportionofPlymouthfromLongPondandJordanRoadseasttothecoast,andfromShipPondRoadnorthtoHowlandPondandManometBluffsSub area3TheportionofPlymouthfromtheeasternshoresofBillingtonSea,GreatSouthPondandGunnersExchangePondeasttoPlymouthBeach,andfromtheintersectionofAldenandLongPondRoads,andJordanRoadnorthtoSa mosetStreetSub area4DuxburyBeach,GurnetPoint,SaquishNeckandClark'sIslandSub area5TheportionofPlymouthsouthofUpperCollegePondRoad,AldenRoad,LongPondRoad,andShipPondRoadSub area6TheportionofPlymouthfromthePlymouthCarvertownlineeasttotheeasternshoresofBillingtonSea.GreatSouthPond,andGunnersExchangePond,andfromUpperCollegeandAldenRoadsnorthtoSamosetStreetandCarverRoadSub area7TheportionofPlymouthsouthoftheKingstonPlymouthTownlinetoCarverRoadSamosetStreetSub area8TheentireTownofKingstonSub area9TheentireTownofDuxburySub area10TheportionofMarshfieldsouthofRoute139/CareswellStreetDykeRoadSub area11TheportionofCarvereastofRoute58Sub area12The portion of Cape Cod Bay within 10 miles of the station APPENDIXMEvacuationSensitivityStudies PilgrimNuclearPowerStationM 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIESThisappendixpresentstheresultsofaseriesofsensitivityanalyses.TheseanalysesaredesignedtoidentifythesensitivityoftheETEtochangesinsomebaseevacuationconditions.M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimesAsensitivitystudywasperformedtodeterminewhetherchangesintheestimatedtripgenerationtimehaveaneffectontheETEfortheentireEPZ.Specifically,ifthetailofthemobilizationdistributionweretruncated(i.e.,ifthosewhorespondedmostslowlytotheAdvisorytoEvacuate,couldbepersuadedtorespondmuchmorerapidly),howwouldtheETEbeaffected?ThecaseconsideredwasScenario1,Region3;asummer,midweek,midday,goodweatherevacuationoftheentireEPZ.TableM 1presentstheresultsofthisstudy.TableM 1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudyTripGenerationPeriodEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile2Hours30Minutes2:504:403Hours30Minutes2:554:404Hours30Minutes(Base)2:554:40AsdiscussedinSection7.3,trafficcongestionpersistswithintheEPZforabout41/2hours.Assuch,theETEforthe100 thpercentilearenotaffectedbythetripgenerationtime,butbythetimeneededtoclearthecongestionwithintheEPZ.The90 thpercentileETEarealsonotsensitivetotruncatingthetailofthemobilizationtimedistribution.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationM 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocateAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesinthepercentageofpeoplewhodecidetorelocatefromtheShadowRegion.ThecaseconsideredwasScenario1,Region3;asummer,midweek,midday,go odweatherevacuationfortheentireEPZ.ThemovementofpeopleintheShadowRegionhasthepotentialtoimpedevehiclesevacuatingfromanEvacuationRegionwithintheEPZ.RefertoSections3.2and7.1foradditionalinformationonpopulationwithintheshadowregion.TableM 2presentstheevacuationtimeestimatesforeachofthecasesconsidered.TheresultsshowthattheETEisnotsignificantlyimpactedbyshadowevacuationfrom0%to20%.TriplingtheshadowpercentageincreasestheETEby10minutesand25minutesforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,trafficcongestioninWarehamandBuzzardsBayintheshadowexhibitpronouncedcongestionwhichprohibittheflowofevacueesoutoftheEPZtothesouth.Note,thetelephonesurveyresultspresentedinAppendixFindicatethat19%ofhouseholdswouldelecttoevacuateifadvise dtoshelter.Thus,thebaseassumptionof20%non compliancesuggestedinNUREG/CR 7002isvalid.TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudyPercentShadowEvacuationEvacuatingShadowVehiclesEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90 thPercentile100 thPercentile002:504:40104,1992:554:4020(Base)8,3972:554:406025,1913:055:05 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationM 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulationAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesintheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ.AspopulationintheEPZchangesovertime,thetimerequiredtoevacuatethepublicmayincrease,decrease,orremainthesame.SincetheETEisrelatedtothedemandtocapacit yratiopresentwithintheEPZ,changesinpopulationwillcausethedemandsideoftheequationtochange.Thesensitivitystudywasconductedusingthefollowingplanningassumptions:1. ThechangeinpopulationwithintheEPZwastreatedparametrically.Thepercentpopulationchangewasvariedbetweenupto23%.Changesinpopulationwereappliedtopermanentresidentsonly(asperfederalguidance),inboththeEPZareaandtheShadowRegion.2. Thetransportationinfrastructureremainedfixed;thepresenceofnewroadsorhighwaycapacityimprovementswerenotconsidered.3. Thestudywasperformedforthe2 MileRegion(R01),the5 MileRegion(R02)andtheentireEPZ(R03).4. ThegoodweatherscenariowhichyieldedthehighestETEvalueswasselectedasthecasetobeconsideredinthissensitivitystudy(Scenario8).TableM 3presentstheresultsofthesensitivitystudy.SectionIVofAppendixEto10CFRPart50,andNUREG/CR 7002,Section5.4,requirelicenseestoprovideanupdatedETEanalysistotheNRCwh enapopulationincreasewithintheEPZcausesETEvalues(forthe2 MileRegion,5 MileRegionorentireEPZ)toincreaseby25percentor30minutes,whicheverisless.NotethatallofthebaseETEvaluesaregreaterthan2hours;25percentofthebaseETEisalwaysgreaterthan30minutes.Therefore,30minutesisthelesserandisthecriterionforupdating.Thosepercentpopulationchangeswhichre sultinETEchangesgreaterthan30minutesareboldedinredbelow-a23%increaseintheEPZpopulation.EntergywillhavetoestimatetheEPZpopulationonanannualbasis.IftheEPZpopulationincreasesby23%ormoreanupdatedETEanalysiswillbeneeded.

PilgrimNuclearPowerStationM 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChangeResidentPopulationBasePopulationChange10%20%23%93,964103,360112,757115,576RegionBasePopulationChange10%20%23%2MILE2:552:553:003:005MILE2:352:452:502:55FULLEPZ3:303:403:554:00RegionBasePopulationChange10%20%26%2MILE6:006:006:006:005MILE6:056:056:056:05FULLEPZ6:106:106:106:10 APPENDIXNETECriteriaChecklist PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1N. ETECRITERIACHECKLISTTableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklistNRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments1.0Introductiona. Theemergencyplanningzone(EPZ)andsurroundingareashouldbedescribed.YesSection1b. Amapshouldbeincludedthatidentifiesprimaryfeaturesofthesite,includingmajorroadways,significanttopographicalfeatures,boundariesofcounties,andpopulationcenterswithintheEPZ.YesFigure1 1c. AcomparisonofthecurrentandpreviousETEshouldbeprovidedandincludessimilarinformationasidentifiedinTable1 1,"ETEComparison,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTable1 31.1Approacha. Adiscussionoftheapproachandlevelofdetailobtainedduringthefieldsurveyoftheroadwaynetworkshouldbeprovided.YesSection1.3b. Sourcesofdemographicdataforschools,specialfacilities,largeemployers,andspecialeventsshouldbeidentified.YesSection2.1Section3c. Discussionshouldbepresentedonuseoftrafficcontrolplansintheanalysis.YesSection1.3,Section2.2,Section9,AppendixGd. Trafficsimulationmodelsusedfortheanalysesshouldbeidentifiedbynameandversion.YesSection1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Methodsusedtoaddressdatauncertaintiesshouldbedescribed.YesSection3-avoiddoublecountingSection5,AppendixF-4.5%samplingerrorat95%confidenceintervalfortelephonesurvey1.2Assumptionsa. TheplanningbasisfortheETEincludestheassumptionthattheevacuationshouldbeorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.YesSection2.3-Assumption1Section5.1b. AssumptionsconsistentwithTable1 2,"GeneralAssumptions,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludethebasistosupporttheiruse.YesSections2.2,2.31.3ScenarioDevelopmenta. ThetenscenariosinTable1 3,EvacuationScenarios,shouldbedevelopedfortheETEanalysis,orareasonshouldbeprovidedforuseofotherscenarios.YesTables2 1,6 21.3.1StagedEvacuationa. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedontheapproachusedindevelopmentofastagedevacuation.YesSections5.4.2,7.21.4EvacuationPlanningAreasa. AmapofEPZwithemergencyresponseplanningareas(ERPAs)shouldbeincluded.YesFigure6 1b. AtableshouldbeprovidedidentifyingtheERPAsconsideredforeachETEcalculationbydownwinddirectionineachsector.YesTable6 1,Table7 5 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. AtablesimilartoTable1 4,"EvacuationAreasforaStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovidedandincludesthecompleteevacuationofthe2,5,and10mileareasandforthe2milearea/5milekeyholeevacuations.YesTable6 1,Table7 52.0DemandEstimationa. Demandestimationshouldbedevelopedforthefourpopulationgroups,includingpermanentresidentsoftheEPZ,transients,specialfacilities,andschools.YesPermanentresidents,employees,transients-Section3,AppendixESpecialfacilities,schools-Section8,AppendixE2.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. TheUSCensusshouldbethesourceofthepopulationvalues,oranothercrediblesourceshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.1b. PopulationvaluesshouldbeadjustedasnecessaryforgrowthtoreflectpopulationestimatestotheyearoftheETE.Yes2010usedasthebaseyearforanalysis.Nogrowthofpopulationnecessary.c. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1,"PopulationbySector,"ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforpermanentresidents.YesFigure3 22.1.1PermanentResidentswithVehiclesa. Thepersonspervehiclevalueshouldbebetween1and2orjustificationshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.Yes1.89personspervehicle-Table1 3b. Majoremployersshouldbelisted.YesAppendixE-TableE 42.1.2TransientPopulation PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Alistoffacilitieswhichattracttransientpopulationsshouldbeincluded,andpeakandaverageattendanceforthesefacilitiesshouldbelisted.Thesourceofinformationusedtodevelopattendancevaluesshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4,AppendixEb. Theaveragepopulationduringtheseasonshouldbeused,itemizedandtotaledforeachscenario.YesTables3 4,3 5andAppendixEitemizethetransientpopulationandemployeeestimates.TheseestimatesaremultipliedbythescenariospecificpercentagesprovidedinTable6 3toestimatetransientpopulationbyscenario.c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsassumedtobeatfacilitiesshouldbeestimated.YesSections3.3,3.4d. Thenumberofpeoplepervehicleshouldbeprovided.Numbersmayvarybyscenario,andifso,discussiononwhyvaluesvaryshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4e. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure2 1ofNUREG/CR 7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforthetransientpopulation.YesFigure3 6-transientsFigure3 8-employees2.2TransitDependentPermanentResidentsa. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberoftransitdependentresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.1,Table8 1b. Transportationresourcesneededtoevacuatethisgroupshouldbequantified.YesSection8.1,Tables8 5,8 10c. Thecounty/localevacuationplansfortransitdependentresidentsshouldbeusedintheanalysis.YesSections8.1,8.4 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberofpeoplewithdisabilitiesandthosewithaccessandfunctionalneedswhomayneedassistanceanddonotresideinspecialfacilitiesshouldbeprovided.Datafromlocal/countyregistrationprogramsshouldbeusedintheestimate,butshouldnotbetheonlysetofdata.YesSection8.5e. Capacitiesshouldbeprovidedforalltypesoftransportationresources.Busseatingcapacityof50%shouldbeusedorjustificationshouldbeprovidedforhighervalues.YesSection2.3-Assumption10Sections3.5,8.1,8.2,8.3f. Anestimateofthispopulationshouldbeprovidedandinformationshouldbeprovidedthattheexistingregistrationprogramswereusedindevelopingtheestimate.YesTable8 1-transitdependentsSection8.4-specialneedsg. Asummarytableofthetotalnumberofbuses,ambulances,orothertransportneededtosupportevacuationshouldbeprovidedandthequantificationofresourcesshouldbedetailedenoughtoassuredoublecountinghasnotoccurred.YesSection8.4-page8 6Table8 5,Section8 32.3SpecialFacilityResidentsa. Alistofspecialfacilities,includingthetypeoffacility,location,andaveragepopulationshouldbeprovided.Specialfacilitystaffshouldbeincludedinthetotalspecialfacilitypopulation.YesTablesE 3andE 7b. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedonhowspecialfacilitydatawasobtained.YesSections8.2,8.3 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundindividualsshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 4,TableE 3d. Anestimateofthenumberandcapacityofvehiclesneededtosupporttheevacuationofthefacilityshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.38 4,8 5e. Thelogisticsformobilizingspeciallytrainedstaff(e.g.,medicalsupportorsecuritysupportforprisons,jails,andothercorrectionalfacilities)shouldbediscussedwhenappropriate.YesSection8.42.4Schoolsa. Alistofschoolsincludingname,location,studentpopulation,andtransportationresourcesrequiredtosupporttheevacuation,shouldbeprovided.Thesourceofthisinformationshouldbeprovided.YesTable8 2Section8.2b. Transportationresourcesforelementaryandmiddleschoolsshouldbebasedon100%oftheschoolcapacity.YesTable8 2c. Theestimateofhighschoolstudentswhowillusetheirpersonalvehicletoevacuateshouldbeprovidedandabasisforthevaluesusedshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.2d. Theneedforreturntripsshouldbeidentifiedifnecessary.YesTherearesufficientresourcestoevacuateschoolsinasinglewave.However,Section8.3andFigure8 1discussthepotentialforamultiplewaveevacuation PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments2.5.1SpecialEventsa. Acompletelistofspecialeventsshouldbeprovidedandincludesinformationonthepopulation,estimatedduration,andseasonoftheevent.YesSection3.7b. ThespecialeventthatencompassesthepeaktransientpopulationshouldbeanalyzedintheETE.YesSection3.7c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsattendingtheeventshouldbeestimated.YesSection3.72.5.2ShadowEvacuationa. Ashadowevacuationof20percentshouldbeincludedforareasoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesfromtheNPP.YesSection2.2-Assumption5Figure2 1Section3.2b. Populationestimatesfortheshadowevacuationinthe10to15mileareabeyondtheEPZareprovidedbysector.YesSection3.2Figure3 4Table3 3c. Theloadingoftheshadowevacuationontotheroadwaynetworkshouldbeconsistentwiththetripgenerationtimegeneratedforthepermanentresidentpopulation.YesSection5-Table5 92.5.3BackgroundandPassThroughTraffica. Thevolumeofbackgroundtrafficandpassthroughtrafficisbasedontheaveragedaytimetraffic.Valuesmaybereducedfornighttimescenarios.YesSection3.6,Table3 6Section6,Table6 3 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. PassthroughtrafficisassumedtohavestoppedenteringtheEPZabouttwohoursaftertheinitialnotification.YesSection2.3-Assumption5Section3.62.6SummaryofDemandEstimationa. Asummarytableshouldbeprovidedthatidentifiesthetotalpopulationsandtotalvehiclesusedinanalysisforpermanentresidents,transients,transitdependentresidents,specialfacilities,schools,shadowpopulation,andpass throughdemandusedineachscenario.YesTables3 7,3 83.0RoadwayCapacitya. Themethod(s)usedtoassessroadwaycapacityshouldbediscussed.YesSection43.1RoadwayCharacteristicsa. AfieldsurveyofkeyrouteswithintheEPZhasbeenconducted.YesSection1.3b. Informationshouldbeprovideddescribingtheextentofthesurvey,andtypesofinformationgatheredandusedintheanalysis.YesSection1.3c. AtablesimilartothatinAppendixA,"RoadwayCharacteristics,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeprovided.YesAppendixK,TableK 1d. Calculationsforarepresentativeroadwaysegmentshouldbeprovided.YesSection4 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. AlegiblemapoftheroadwaysystemthatidentifiesnodenumbersandsegmentsusedtodeveloptheETEshouldbeprovidedandshouldbesimilartoFigure3 1,"RoadwayNetworkIdentifyingNodesandSegments,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesAppendixK,FiguresK 1throughK 21presenttheentirelink nodeanalysisnetworkatascalesuitabletoidentifyalllinksandnodes3.2CapacityAnalysisa. Theapproachusedtocalculatetheroadwaycapacityforthetransportationnetworkshouldbedescribedindetailandidentifiesfactorsthatshouldbeexpresslyusedinthemodeling.YesSection4b. ThecapacityanalysisidentifieswherefieldinformationshouldbeusedintheETEcalculation.YesSection1.3,Section43.3IntersectionControla. Alistofintersectionsshouldbeprovidedthatincludesthetotalnumberofintersectionsmodeledthatareunsignalized,signalized,ormannedbyresponsepersonnel.YesAppendixK,TableK 2b. Characteristicsforthe10highestvolumeintersectionswithintheEPZareprovidedincludingthelocation,signalcyclelength,andturnlanequeuecapacity.YesTableJ 1c. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonhowsignalcycletimeisusedinthecalculations.YesSection4.1,AppendixC.3.4AdverseWeather PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Theadverseweatherconditionshouldbeidentifiedandtheeffectsofadverseweatheronmobilizationtimeshouldbeconsidered.YesTable2 1,Section2.3-Assumption9Mobilizationtime-Table2 2,Section5.3(page5 10)b. ThespeedandcapacityreductionfactorsidentifiedinTable3 1,"WeatherCapacityFactors,"ofNUREG/CR 7002shouldbeusedorabasisshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.YesTable2 2-basedonHCM2010.ThefactorsprovidedinTable3 1ofNUREG/CR 7002arefromHCM2000.c. Thestudyidentifiesassumptionsforsnowremovalonstreetsanddriveways,whenapplicable.YesSection5.3-page5 10AppendixF-SectionF.3.34.0DevelopmentofEvacuationTimes4.1TripGenerationTimea. Theprocessusedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesshouldbeidentified.YesSection5b. Whentelephonesurveysareused,thescopeofthesurvey,areaofsurvey,numberofparticipants,andstatisticalrelevanceshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixFc. Dataobtainedfromtelephonesurveysshouldbesummarized.YesAppendixFd. Thetripgenerationtimeforeachpopulationgroupshouldbedevelopedfromsitespecificinformation.YesSection5,AppendixF4.1.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulation PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Permanentresidentsareassumedtoevacuatefromtheirhomesbutarenotassumedtobeathomeatalltimes.Tripgenerationtimeincludestheassumptionthatapercentageofresidentswillneedtoreturnhomepriortoevacuating.YesSection5discussestripgenerationforhouseholdswithandwithoutreturningcommuters.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofhouseholdswithreturningcommutersandthepercentageofhouseholdseitherwithoutreturningcommutersorwithnocommuters.AppendixFpresentsthepercenthouseholdswhowillawaitthereturnofcommuters.b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonthetimeandmethodusedtonotifytransients.Thetripgenerationtimediscussesanydifficultiesnotifyingpersonsinhardtoreachareassuchasonlakesorincampgrounds.YesSection5.4.3c. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsfortransientspotentiallyreturningtohotelspriortoevacuating.YesSection5,Figure5 1d. Effectofpublictransportationresourcesusedduringspecialeventswherealargenumberoftransientsshouldbeexpectedshouldbeconsidered.YesSection3.7e. Thetripgenerationtimeforthetransientpopulationshouldbeintegratedandloadedontothetransportationnetworkwiththegeneralpublic.YesSection5,Table5 94.1.2TransitDependentResidents PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Ifavailable,existingplansandbusroutesshouldbeusedintheETEanalysis.IfnewplansshouldbedevelopedwiththeETE,theyhavebeenagreeduponbytheresponsibleauthorities.YesSection8.3-page8 7.Figure8 2,Table8 10.b. Discussionshouldbeincludedonthemeansofevacuatingambulatoryandnonambulatoryresidents.YesSection8.4c. Thenumber,location,andavailabilityofbuses,andotherresourcesneededtosupportthedemandestimationshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4d. Logisticaldetails,suchasthetimetoobtainbuses,briefdrivers,andinitiatethebusrouteshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,Figure8 1e. Discussionshouldidentifythetimeestimatedfortransitdependentresidentstoprepareandtraveltoabuspickuppoint,anddescribestheexpectedmeansoftraveltothepickuppoint.YesSection8.3f. Thenumberofbusstopsandtimeneededtoloadpassengersshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.3g. Amapofbusroutesshouldbeincluded.YesFigure8 2h. Thetripgenerationtimefornonambulatorypersonsincludesthetimetomobilizeambulancesorspecialvehicles,timetodrivetothehomeofresidents,loadingtime,andtimetodriveoutoftheEPZshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4i. Informationshouldbeprovidedtosupportsanalysisofreturntrips,ifnecessary.YesSections8.3,8.4Figure8 1Tables8 11through8 13 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.1.3SpecialFacilitiesa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8 4,Tables8 14through8 16,8 18b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSections8.4.c. Thenumberofwheelchairandbed boundsindividualsshouldbeprovided,andthelogisticsofevacuatingtheseresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesTables8 4,8 14through8 16d. TimeforloadingofresidentsshouldbeprovidedYesSection8.4e. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsshouldbeneeded.YesSection8.4,Table8 5f. Ifreturntripsshouldbeneeded,thedestinationofvehiclesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4g. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherspecialfacilityresidentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesSection8.4h. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesSection8.4.Tables8 14through8 16.4.1.4Schoolsa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesTables8 7through8 9OutboundspeedsaredefinedastheminimumoftheevacuationroutespeedandtheStateschoolbusspeedlimit.InboundspeedsarelimitedtotheStateschoolbusspeedlimit.c. Timeforloadingofstudentsshouldbeprovided.YesTables8 7through8 9,DiscussioninSection8.4d. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsareneeded.YesSection8.4e. Ifreturntripsareneeded,thedestinationofschoolbusesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4f. Ifused,receptioncentersshouldbeidentified.Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherstudentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesTable8 3.Studentsareevacuatedtoreceivingschoolswheretheywillbepickedupbyparentsorguardians.g. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesTables8 7and8 9providetimeneededtoarriveathostfacility,whichcouldbeusedtocomputeasecondwaveevacuationifnecessary4.2ETEModeling PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. GeneralinformationaboutthemodelshouldbeprovidedanddemonstratesitsuseinETEstudies.YesDYNEVII(Ver.4.0.6.0).Section1.3,Table1 3,AppendixB,AppendixC.b. IfatrafficsimulationmodelisnotusedtoconducttheETEcalculation,sufficientdetailshouldbeprovidedtovalidatetheanalyticalapproachused.Allcriteriaelementsshouldhavebeenmet,asappropriate.NoNotapplicableasatrafficsimulationmodelwasused.4.2.1TrafficSimulationModelInputa. Trafficsimulationmodelassumptionsandarepresentativesetofmodelinputsshouldbeprovided.YesAppendicesBandCdescribethesimulationmodelassumptionsandalgorithmsTableJ 2b. Aglossaryoftermsshouldbeprovidedforthekeyperformancemeasuresandparametersusedintheanalysis.YesAppendixATablesC 1,C 24.2.2TrafficSimulationModelOutputa. AdiscussionregardingwhetherthetrafficsimulationmodelusedmustbeinequilibrationpriortocalculatingtheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixB PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Theminimumfollowingmodeloutputsshouldbeprovidedtosupportreview:1. TotalvolumeandpercentbyhourateachEPZexitnode.2. Networkwideaveragetraveltime.3. Longestqueuelengthforthe10intersectionswiththehighesttrafficvolume.4. Totalvehiclesexitingthenetwork.5. AplotthatprovidesboththemobilizationcurveandevacuationcurveidentifyingthecumulativepercentageofevacueeswhohavemobilizedandexitedtheEPZ.6. AveragespeedforeachmajorevacuationroutethatexitstheEPZ.Yes1. TableJ 5.2. TableJ 3.3. TableJ 1.4. TableJ 3.5. FiguresJ 1throughJ 14(oneplotforeachscenarioconsidered

).6. TableJ 4.NetworkwideaveragespeedalsoprovidedinTableJ 3.c. Colorcodedroadwaymapsshouldbeprovidedforvarioustimes(i.e.,at2,4,6hrs.,etc.)duringafullEPZevacuationscenario,identifyingareaswherelongqueuesexistincludinglevelofservice(LOS)"E"andLOS"F"conditions,iftheyoccur.YesFigures7 3through7 94.3EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheGeneralPublica. TheETEshouldincludethetimetoevacuate90%and100%ofthetotalpermanentresidentandtransientpopulationYesTables7 1,7 2 PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. TheETEfor100%ofthegeneralpublicshouldincludeallmembersofthegeneralpublic.Anyreductionsortruncateddatashouldbeexplained.YesSection5.4-truncatingsurveydatatoeliminatestatisticaloutliersTable7 2-100 thpercentileETEforgeneralpublicc. Tablesshouldbeprovidedforthe90and100percentETEssimilartoTable4 3,"ETEsforStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR 7002.YesTables7 3,7 4d. ETEsshouldbeprovidedforthe100percentevacuationofspecialfacilities,transitdependent,andschoolpopulations.YesSection8.4Tables8 7through8 9Tables8 11through8 13Tables8 14through8 16Table8 185.0OtherConsiderations5.1DevelopmentofTrafficControlPlansa. Informationthatresponsibleauthoritieshaveapprovedthetrafficcontrolplanusedintheanalysisshouldbeprovided.YesSection9,AppendixGb. AdiscussionofadjustmentsoradditionstothetrafficcontrolplanthataffecttheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixG5.2EnhancementsinEvacuationTimea. Theresultsofassessmentsforimprovementofevacuationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixM PilgrimNuclearPowerStationN 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Astatementordiscussionregardingpresentationofenhancementstolocalauthoritiesshouldbeprovided.YesResultsoftheETEstudywereformallypresentedtolocalauthoritiesatthefinalprojectmeeting.Recommendedenhancementswerediscussed.5.3StateandLocalReviewa. Alistofagenciescontactedandtheextentofinteractionwiththeseagenciesshouldbediscussed.YesTable1 1b. InformationshouldbeprovidedonanyunresolvedissuesthatmayaffecttheETE.YesNoissuesweredeterminedafterreviewwiththeoffsiteagencies5.4ReviewsandUpdatesa. AdiscussionofwhenanupdatedETEanalysisisrequiredtobeperformedandsubmittedtotheNRC.YesAppendixM,SectionM.35.5ReceptionCentersandCongregateCareCentera. Amapofcongregatecarecentersandreceptioncentersshouldbeprovided.YesFigure10 1b. Ifreturntripsarerequired,assumptionsusedtoestimatereturntimesforbusesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3discussesamulti waveevacuationprocedure.Figure8 1c. Itshouldbeclearlystatedifitisassumedthatpassengersareleftatthereceptioncenterandaretakenbyseparatebusestothecongregatecarecenter.YesSection2.3-Assumption7hSection10TechnicalReviewer_________________

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