ML19340F175

Tornado & Straight Wind Hazard Probability for Oyster Creek Nuclear Power Reactor Site,Nj.

ML19340F175
Person / Time
Site:	Oyster Creek
Issue date:	05/31/1980
From:	Mcdonald J TEXAS TECH UNIV., LUBBOCK, TX
To:
Shared Package
ML19340F172	List: ML19340F175
References
CON-NRC-04-76-345, CON-NRC-4-76-345, TASK-02-02.A, TASK-2-2.A, TASK-RR NUDOCS 8101210223
Download: ML19340F175 (26)

Text

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.c TORNADO AND STRAIGHT WIND HAZARD ,

PROBABILITY ...

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OYSTER CREEK NUCLEAR POWER REACTOR SITE, NEW JERSEY 1

C by

~ James R. Mcdonald, P.E.

nstitute 'or Disaster Researc, l

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_ubbocs, Texas 79z.09

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TORNADO AND STRAIGHT WIND HAZARD PROBABILITY for OYSTER CREEK NUCLEAR PCWER REACTOR SITE, NEW JERSEY by James R. Mcdonald, P.E.

i Prepared for U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Site Safety Research Branch Division of Reactor Safety Research May,1980 Institute for Disaster Research Texas Tech University

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FOREWORD "f4

.' e Hazard probability assessment for tornadoes and other extrema winds C'

at the Oyster Creek nuclear power reactor site are presented herein at the request of Robert F. Abbey, Jr., Site Safety.Research Branch, Division of 4-C' Reactor Safety Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The work is ;upported under NRC Contract NRC-04-76-345. Principal Invest'igator and d Project Manager for the Institute for Disaster Research is James R.

Mcdonald, P.E.

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I. INTRODUCTION C' The objective of this report .is to assess tornado and straight wind ~

probability hazards at the Oyster Creek nuclear power reactor site (See Fig.1). The hazard probability analyses are developed using storm records. j.

from the geographical region surrounding the site. Ninety-five percent confidence limits on the probabilities are presented to give an indication of the accuracy of the expected hazard probabilities.

The final hazard probability model is presented graphically in Figure 6. Windspeeds corresponding to selected probability values are .

suninarized in Table 8. The basic data used in the calculations are presented in this report. Derivation of the tornado hazard assessment methodology, the rationale and assumptions are given in Mcdonald (1980).

Use of the Type I extreme value distribution function for straight wind hazard assessment is well documented in simiu and Scanlan (1978).

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FIGURE 1. LOCAL AND GLOBAL REGIONS FOR OYSTER CREEX P00R ORIGINAL e

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, II. TORNADO HAZARD PROBA8ILITY ASSESSMENT

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,.i-A. METHODOLOGY <#'

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The tornado hazard model developed by the Institute for Disaster f/ '

Research (IDR) accounts for gradations of damage across the tornado path .

width and along it= length (Mcdonald,1980). There are four basic steps '.

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involved in the methodology: .,

(1) Detennination of an area-intensity relationship in a global .[~

region surrounding the site of interest. "

(2) Determination of an occurrence-intensity relationship in a local region surrounding the site. .s

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(3) Calculation of the probabilities of a point within the local region experiencing windspeeds in some windspeed interval.

(4) Determination of the probability of windspeeds in the local region exceeding the interval values.

B. CALCULATIONS

1. Site Oyster Creek Nuclear Power Reactor Site

2. Coordinates Latitude 39 48' 50" N

• Longitude 74 12' 41" W

3. Area-Intensity Relationship Global Region Latitude 38 to 42 N Longitude 73 to 77UW Data DAPPLE Tornado Data Tape UT1678 (Fujita, et al., 1979) l l Period of Record '

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than that collected prior to 1971, especially w' ith regard to tornado

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damage path characteristics. The area-intensity matrix is shown in 'yj Table 1. It gives the number of tornadoes in each corresponding area-intensity classification. From this information, the mean " 7. -

damage path area per F-scale can be obtained. :r?

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• cs AREA-INTENSITY MATRIX 3 c Number of Tornadoes * ]

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Interval F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 (so mi)  :

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. I 10 16 7 N0 0 0 0.100E-01 2 2 24 5 3N 0 O 0.316E-01 3 1 8 6 2 0 0.100E-00 4 0 3 5 1 ON 0 0.316E-00 5

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Totals 16 64 25 6 1 0

• Those tornadoes outside the dashed lines are considered outliers and have been eliminated from the data set.

Mean Damage Path Area Per F-Scale F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 Mean Area, sq mi .0170 .0735 .1364 .1018 -- --

Median Windspeed, mph 56 92.5 135 182 233.5 289.5

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Log (Area)=1.905LogV-4.944 (1)

• The coefficient of detemination is 34_

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_n Area-Intensity Relationship The expected mean area is obtained from Equation (1) above. .,

Upper and lower bound confidence limits are calculated at the 95 percent level. These values are shown in Table 2. .;

Figure 2 shows a plot of the area-intensity relationship.

TABLE 2 -

4 AREA-INTENSITY RELATIONSHIP WITH 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5

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Expected Mean \

area, ag, sq mi .0244 .0634\ .1302 .2301 .3699 .5571 1.ower Limit a ,

sq mi i .0144 .0378 .0776 .1306 .2167 .3230

. Upper limit a g, sq mi .041 .106 .21 9 .389 .631 .961 Median F-scale Windspeed, mph 56 92.5 135 182 233.5 289.5

4. Occurrence-Intensity Relationship Local Region Latitude 380 to 41 N Longitude 74 to 77 W Area = 33,195 - 8,375 Area = 24,820 An area of 8,375 sq mi is deducted from the local region because of the ocean. There are, of course, no tornadoes recorded over water.

See Figure 1 for definition of local region and its relationship to the site.

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< f O.01 56 92.5 13 3.5 18 2 2333 289.5 WINDSPEED MPH FIGURE 2. AREA-INTENSITY RELATIONSHIP FOR OYSTER CREEK P90RORIGIM

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y O DAPPLE Tornado Data Tape (UT1678 (Fujita, et al., 1979). ' 7', L,. .

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Period of Record ,' ' 's ' -

1950 to 1978 - . 'y., ,

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has occurred in the local region. For one reason or another, some. ..f-tornadoes go unreported. Because the population density of the local '*E .

region is high (greater than 400 persons per square mile, USNRC,1979), y and because the terrain is such that identifiable paths can be seen ,s

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,s should a tornado touch down (damage to structures, trees, fences, or ,

power lines), the number of unreported tornadoes in the region is likely to be less than five percent. The number of reported tornadoes in the ' , y; ,

local region is shown in Table 3. K +.

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TABLE 3 NUMBER OF TCRNA00ES IN THE LOCAL REGION F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 Number of Tornadoes 27 100 46 12 0 0 Cumulative Number 185 158 58 '12 0 0 Lower Bound F-Scale Windspeed, mph 40 73 113 158 207 261 Occurrence-Intensity Function The function used is obtained by performing a linear regression analysis using the F0 and F1 tornadoes and another linear regression analysis using the F2 and F3 tornadoes. There have been no F4 and F5 tornadoes reported in the local region during the period of record.

Linear regression analysis of the data in Table 3 en a semi-log plot gives the following functional relationships:

y = (223.98)l0 -0.00208x (x < 86 mph)

-0.01521x y = (3031.38)l0 (x > 86 mph) wnere y is the cumulative number of tornadoes with windspeeds greater l than or equal to x.

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Occurrence-Intensity Relationship ,

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from the occurrence-intensity function (Equation 2). Upper and lower bound confidence limits are also obtained at the 95 percent level.

These values are then divided by the period of record (29 years) to ,

obtain the number of tornadoes per year for each F-scale classifica-which is the needed occurrence-intensity relationship required ~ '

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'- tion Aj, for the hazard probability assessment. Table 4 lists the values used in the probability calculation. Figure 3 shows a plot of the occurrence- '

intensity relationship.

TA8LE 4 ,

OCCURRENCE-INTENSITY RELATIONSHIP WITH 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS .

F0 F1 F2 F3 Fa F5 Expected number of tornadoes in inter-val , 6 26.99 100.0 46.00 9.84 1.83 0.33 Lower limit 5 17.58 86.72 34.48 3.86 -- --

Upper limit 5 36.41 113.29 57.52 15.83 4.72 1.44 Expected number of tornadoes per year A 9 0.93 3.85 1.59 0.34 0.06 0.01 Lower limit A 9 0.61 2.99 1.19 0.13 -- --

Upper limit A 9 1.26 3. 91 1.98 0.55 0.15 0.05

5. Tornado Hazard Probability The tornado hazard probability calculations are performed by computer, although they can easily be done by hand. The expected hazard probabilities are obtained by using the expected area-intensity and the expected occurrence-intensity relationship relatienship (aj)Icwer limits of ha:ard probability are cotained by (Aj). Upcer and using the upper and lower limit Aj's and aj 's respectively. The computer printouts for these calculations are contained in docendix A.

Table 5 summarizes the tornado hazard probabilities, and includes the 95 percent confidence limits. The tornado hazard probability model is plotted in Figure 4. Final ha:ard probability results are summari:ed in Section IV of this report.

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': . TORMA00 HAZARD PROBABILITIES WITH 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS Mean Hazard Tornado Windseeeds, moh Recurrence Probability Expectec Lower Upper Interval Per Year Value limit Limit f

10,000 1.0 x 10-4 < 40 <40 c40 100,000 1.0 x 10-5 77 50 109 1,000,000 1.0 x 10-6 143 119 181 10,000,000 1.0 x 10-7 203 170 247 l . 10

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i III. STRAIGHT WIND HAZARD ASSESSMENT ,

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A. METHODOLOGY A set of annual extreme fastest-mile windspeeds are used to fit a ,

cumulative probability distribution function in order to obtain the i

straight wind hazard probabilities. The Type I extreme value function -

generally fits the data well. In view of the studies by Simiu and Filliben (1975), the Type I distribution function is used in lieu of theTypeIIthatwasusedpreviously(AtlSI,1972). A detailed description ',

of the methodology is given in Simiu and Scanlan (1978).

B. CALCULATIONS Annual extreme fastest-mile windspeed data are not available at the power plant site. The closest weather station with the needed data is Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, which is located 57 miles east of the site (See Figure 1). Terrain and meteorological conditions are such that the data should be representative of wind conditions at the site.

The data and the Type I distribution function are taken from Simiu, Changery, and Filliben (1979). The data covers a 23-year period from 1955 - 1977. The mean windspeed is 49.5 mph, while the standard deviation is 5.72.

The set of annual extreme fastest-mile windspeeds for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is given in Table 6. The windspeeds have been adjusted to a standard anemometer height of 10 m.

The straight wind hazard probabilities with 95 percent confidence limits are given in Table 7. The straight wind hazard probability model with 95 percent confidence limits is plotted in Figure 5.

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ANNUAL EXTREME FASTEST-MILE WINDSPEEDS L'z V AT PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA J t'

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1956 50 NW 02/25 1957 47 SW 05/26 7 a

1958 62 NW 06/11 1959 44 NW 01/06 -

1960 54 NE 09/12 ]'

1961 43 E 04/13 1962 53 NE 03/06 k 1963 46 NW 01/27 ,

1964 46 SW 03/05 1965 45 SW 02/25 1966 42 W 01/31 1967 44 W 02/16 1968 49 NE 11/12 1969 62 flW 06/23 1970 47 W 04/02 1971 47 W 03/04 1972 47 N 08/26 1973 51 SW 03/17 1974 44 NW 05/12 1975 51 W 04/03 1976 55 NW 03/21 1977 54 NW 08/06 i

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STRAIGHT WIND HAZARD PROBABILITIES A WITH 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS '

Mean Expected Upper Lower Recurrence Hazard Fastest-Mile Limit Limit

• Ai L- Interval Probability Windsoeed, moh mph mph

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l0 1.0 x 10~1 58 63 53 20 5.0 x 10-2 61 67 55 50 2.0 x.10-2 66 73 58 -I

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50 0 2.0 x 10-3 77 89 64 1,000 1.0 x 10-3 80 93 66

~4 10,000 1.0 x 10 91 109 73 100,000 1.0 x 10-5 102 124 80 1,000,000 1.0 x 10-6 113 140 36

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O Windspeed hazard probability, which includes both tornadoes and straight _.- l u:-

winds, is the probability of a point within some defined geographical region experiencing windspeeds greater than or equal to some threshold value in ,

O one year. Tornado hazard probabilities are the same at any point within f

the defined local region. The Type I extreme value distribution function ..

obtained from data collected at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is used for the straight wind probability hazard assessment at the Oyster Creek reactor site.

Thus, in effect, Philadelphia and the reactor site are contained in a comon local region.

Tornado windspeeds are referenced to 33 ft above ground level (approx-imately 10 m) and are the maximum horizontal windspeeds. According to Fujita (1971), F-scale windspeeds are fastest-one-quarter mile winds.

However, because of the translational speed of a tornado, winds acting on a structure may be of considerably shorter duration. Because tornado windspeeds are based on appearance of damage, they are considered to be effective velocities, which include effects of gust, structure size and structure frequency. For design purposes, the gust response factor for tornado winds may be taken as unity.

The straight winds are fastest-mile windspeeds which have a variable time duration, depending on the magnitude of the windspeeds. Values are normalized to a 10 m anemometer height. For design purposes, gust response factors greater than unity are appropriate (See ANSI A58.1, 1972).

The tornado and straight wind models are combined in Figure 6 to obtain the final windspeed model. For design or evaluation purposes, one needs to know the type of storn that controls the criteria. For windspeeds less than 109 mph, the straight wind model governs. For windspeeds greater than

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O atmospheric pressure change and missiles must be taken into account in addition to the wind effects. Because of this, the union of the two -

events (tornado and straight winds) is not of particular interest. Table .F 8 sunnarizes the final windspeed hazard probabilities, .4

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TABLE 8

SUMMARY

OF WINDSPEED HAZARD PROBABILITIES FOR OYSTER CREEK Mean Expected Recurrence Hazard Windspeed Probability moh Type of Storm Interval 10 1.0 x 10-I 58 Straight Wind 100 1.0 x 10-2 69 Straight Wind

-3 80 Straight Wind 1,000 1.0 x 10

-4 Straight Wind 10,000 1.0 x 10 91

-5 102 Straight Wind 100,000 1.0 x 10

-6 143 Tornado 1,000,000 1.0 x 10

-7 203 Tornado 10,000,000 1.0 x 10 19

REFERENCES

1. ANSI, 1972: " Building Code Requirements for Minimum Design Loads in Buildings and Other Structures," A58.1, American National Standards Institute, Inc., New York, New York.

2. Fujita, T. T. ,1971: " Proposed Charact*intico cf Tornadoes and Hurricanes by Area and Intensity," SMRP 4. 91, U:e University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.

3. Fujita, T. T., Tecson, J. J, and Abbey, R. F., 1979: " Statistics of U. S. Tornacces Based on the DAPPLE Tornado Tape," lith Conference on Severe Local Storms, Kansas City, Missouri, October 2-5, 1979, published by American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts.

4. Mcdonald, J. R. ,1980: "A Mcuodology for Tornado Hazard Assessment,"

Institute for Disaster Pesearch, Texas Tech University, Lubbock Texas..

5. Simiu, E., Changery, M. J. and Filliben, J. J., 1979: " Extreme Wind-speeds at 129 Stations in the Contiguous United States," NBS Building Science Service 118, National Sureau of Standards, Washington, D.C.

6. Simiu, E. and Scanlan, R. H., 1978: Wind Effects on Structures, John Wiley and Sons, New York, New York.

7. Simiu, E. and Filliben, J. J.,1975: " Statistical Analysis of Extreme Winds," Technical Note No. 868, National Bureau of Standards, Washington, D. C.

8. U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1979: Demographic Statistics Pertaining to Nuclear Power Reactor Sites, NUREG-0348, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Washington, D. C.

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