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{{#Wiki_filter:PaulD.Koonce Pres ident & CEO - Pow er Generation Group                                ~ Dominion 120 Tredegar Street, Richmond, VA 23219
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                                                                            ;iii" Energy Dom inion Energy.com May 1, 2018 Joel H. Peck, Clerk Virginia State Corporation Commission Clo Document Control Center 1300 East Main Street Richmond, VA 23219 RE: Case No. PUR-2018-00065
 
==Dear Mr. Peck:==
 
Virginia Electric and Power Company ("Dominion Energy Virginia" or the "Company") is pleased to submit to the Virginia State Corporation Commission ("Commission") its 2018 Integrated Resource Plan (the "2018 Plan" or "the Plan") for the 15-year planning period of 2019 through 2033. The Plan is submitted in accordance with§ 56-599 of the Code of Virginia. Simultaneously, the Plan is being filed in North Carolina with the North Carolina Utilities Commission ("NCUC") in accordance with§ 62.2 of the North Carolina General Statutes and Rule R8-60 of the Rules and Regulations of the NCUC.
The 2018 Plan reflects the Company's belief that regulation of power station carbon dioxide ("CO/')
emissions is virtually assured in the future, either through new federal initiatives or through measures adopted at the state level. Although federal executive and judicial actions have halted implementation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan ("CPP"), the Commonwealth of Virginia has attempted to address carbon emissions through regulatory action. Specifically, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality ("DEQ") has released a draft proposal capping C02 emissions from the state's electric generating units ("EGUs"). The draft proposes linking a cap-and-trade program in Virginia with the existing Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative ("RGGI") now being implemented in the northeastern United States. Regardless of the precise mechanism of carbon control, the Company is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Because of the uncertainty regarding the final form and scope of carbon emission regulations, the 2018 Plan presents no recommended long-term path for meeting the long-term energy needs of the Company' s customers. Instead, the 2018 Plan presents a range of options (the "Alternative Plans") representing plausible future paths for meeting the electric needs of Dominion Energy Virginia customers. The Company also offers a strategic plan for the next five years in its Short-Term Action Plan.
The Plan Reflects the Transition to a Lower Emissions Rate Future The Company has been a leader in reducing carbon emissions, having begun its transition to a generating fleet with lower carbon intensity well before the proposed federal and state carbon regulations considered in the 2018 Plan. Between 2000 and 2017, the carbon intensity of the Company' s units serving Virginia 1
 
r declined by 3 5 percent while power production by these units increased by 14 percent. As the 2018 Plan reflects, Dominion Energy Virginia will continue moving toward cleaner, more efficient, and Iower emitting ways of generating, delivering, storing, and transporting energy.
Renewable resources are becoming a more cost-effective means of meeting the growing energy demands of customers. This is particularly true of solar power. The continuing development of solar photovoltaic
("PV") technology has made this type of generation cost-competitive with other, more traditional forms of generation. Backed up by units using low-emitting natural gas, renewable resources will play an increasingly important role in the Company's generation fleet serving customers in Virginia and North Carolina. In fact, all of the Alternative Plans presented in the 2018 Plan call for the potential development of 4,720 megawatts ("MW") of additional solar capacity by 2033. By 2043, four of the Alternative Plans would expand the Dominion Energy Virginia solar fleet by 7,200 MW.
The Virginia General Assembly affirmed the growing importance of renewable energy generation in passing the Grid Transformation and Security Act of2018 (the "GTSA"), which was signed into law by Governor Ralph Northam on March 9, 2018. The new law finds that up to an additional 5,000 MW of utility-scale electric generating facilities powered by solar and wind energy is in the public interest, along with up to an additional 500 MW of non-utility scale solar or wind generating facilities, including rooftop solar installations. The GTSA also encourages electric distribution grid transformation projects, in part to facilitate the integration of renewable generation resources into the Company's system. The Company includes discussion of its plans to comply with the GTSA's various mandates as part of its Short-Term Action Plan contained in this 2018 Plan.
While acknowledging the rapidly increasing role of renewable resources, the 2018 Plan continues the longstanding integrated resource planning ("IRP") goal of identifying an economical blend of resources capable of meeting the future energy needs of the Company's customers under a variety of scenarios. The Plan recognizes the continued importance of lower-emission natural gas as a significant source of electric generation, with all five of the Alternative Plans including potential development of 3,664 MW of additional combustion turbine ("CT") capacity by 2033.
The 2018 Plan also recognizes that nuclear power must continue to play a major role in power generation in a lower-carbon, lower-emission future. Therefore, all of the Alternative Plans assume that all of the Company's nuclear generation in Virginia, which includes two reactors at Surry Power Station and two at North Anna Power Station, will receive 20-year operating license extensions from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Relicensing the units will ensure that these reactors continue their zero-carbon production of electricity into the second half of the 21st century. The Surry and North Anna nuclear units continue to be by far the largest source of zero-emissions generation for the Company. Their operation avoids the release of approximately 22 million tons of C02 per year. More than 100,000 acres of solar PV facilities would be needed to match the nuclear units' annual power output.
In addition to new and relicensed generation, the Plan also evaluates demand-side management programs to help customers conserve energy or reduce system peak loads. All of the Alternative Plans call for implementation of demand-side programs capable of reducing customers' overall annual energy usage by 805 gigawatt-hours (GWh) and system peak demand by 304 MW by 2033. The 2018 Plan does not yet reflect the emphasis placed on energy conservation by the GTSA. The GTSA requires the Company to propose energy efficiency programs with projected costs of at least $870 million for the period beginning 2
 
r July 1, 2018, and ending July 1, 2028, including its existing approved energy efficiency programs. With the GTSA becoming law on July 1, 2018, the Company anticipates directly addressing this expansion of proposed energy conservation programming in future filings with the Commission.
Alternative Plans Examined by the Company While uncertainty still surrounds future carbon regulations, the Company believes that the IRP process should continue with a thorough evaluation of options for complying with various regulatory alternatives.
The Alternative Plans range from a scenario with no new future C02 regulation to various forms of state or federal carbon control initiatives. Dominion Energy Virginia does not present an Alternative Plan based on implementation of the CPP because the Company does not believe that future implementation of the CPP is plausible. Nevertheless, the Company provides analysis for a CPP-based plan in an appendix.
The five Alternative Plans presented in the 2018 Plan are:
Plan A: No C02 Tax. Plan A is based on a scenario of a future without any new regulation of or restrictions on power station carbon emissions. Plan A serves as a least-cost baseline for comparing the costs of the other plans.
Plan B: Virginia RGGI (Unlimited Imports). Plan B, the second Alternative Plan, assumes implementation of the DEQ's draft carbon reduction regulations published in the Virginia Register in January 2018. The draft proposal links Virginia to RGGI. Plan B assumes that the Company's compliance with this regulation is achieved largely through the use of more carbon intensive out-of-state energy and generating capacity.
Plan C: RGGI (Unlimited Imports). Plan C assumes Virginia will become a full member ofRGGI. It also assumes that the Company's compliance with RGGI is met largely through the use of more carbon intensive out-of-state energy and capacity. The Company presents Plan Casa comparison against Plan B. Plan C reflects the higher cost of allowance purchases if Virginia becomes a full member of RGGI, with no offsetting payments as would occur under the DEQ's draft carbon regulations modeled in Plan B.
Plan D: RGGI (Limited Imports). Like Plan C, Plan D assumes Virginia will become a full member of RGGI. However, Plan D assumes the Company's compliance with RGGI will be achieved primarily through generation built in Virginia and limited imports of more carbon-intensive power. Like Plan C, Plan D reflects the higher cost of allowance purchases with no offsetting payments.
Plan E: Federal C02 Program. Plan E assumes that Virginia does not implement any C02 reduction program, but also assumes that federal C02 legislation is enacted imposing restrictions beginning in 2026.
As detailed in Chapter 3 of the 2018 Plan, modeling performed for the Company indicates that, if not mitigated by other public policies including the successful implementation of the renewable energy, energy efficiency and other provisions of the GTSA, Virginia's linkage to RGGI would encourage the import into the Commonwealth of power from out-of-state, higher carbon-intensity generating resources.
This would occur through the Company's increased need to purchase out-of-state energy and capacity to meet its obligations to serve Virginia customers. It would also encourage customers able to shop competitively to purchase out-of-state power. At the same time, highly efficient and lower-emitting natural gas combined cycle facilities in Virginia would run less. While this would reduce carbon 3
 
emissions in Virginia, the reductions would be offset by increased emissions elsewhere in the North American Electric Reliability Corporation ("NERC") Eastern Interconnect, which includes all of the PJM Interconnection and the RGGI region. Additionally, modeling indicates the higher level of power imports would increase the carbon footprint per Dominion Energy Virginia customer by 5.7 percent by 2030 and impose an additional $500 million in costs on Virginia customers from 2020 through 2030.
Common Elements of the Alternative Plans Major common elements of the five alternatives within the planning period of 2019 through 2033 include:
* Solar: Development of 4,720 MW of solar PV generation by 2033.
* Solar (Non-Utility Generators): The addition of 760 MW of solar PV capacity owned by non utility generators ("NUGs") under long-term contracts with the Company in Virginia and North Carolina by 2020.
* Wind: Construction and operation of the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind demonstration project with a generating capacity of 12 MW by 2021. The project is to be located approximately 27 miles off the coast of Virginia Beach.
* Nuclear: Twenty-year operating license extensions for the four Company-owned nuclear units at the Surry and North Anna Power Stations. The Surry units would be relicensed by 2032 and 2033, and the North Anna units by 2038 and 2040.
* Natural Gas: Additional natural gas-fired generation, including completion of the 1,585 MW Greensville County Power Station using energy efficient, low-emission combined cycle technology, scheduled to begin service by 2019. All of the Alternative Plans also call for the addition of eight natural gas-powered facilities using CT technology with a combined capacity of approximately 3,664 MW by 2033.
* Demand-Side Management: Implementation of demand-side management programs, both already approved by or currently submitted to the Commission, capable of reducing overall annual customer energy usage by 805 GWh and system peak demand by 304 MW by 2033.
* Potential Retirements (Fossil Fuels): The potential retirement of 2,785 MW of generation powered by older, less efficient coal, oil, and natural gas technology by 2021 or 2022 at six Virginia sites. The Company announced earlier this year that 1,209 MW of this generation at five sites would be placed in cold reserve by December 2018. All generation retirements presented in the Alternative Plans should be considered tentative, with the Company's final decision being made at a future date after further analysis.
* Potential Retirements (Biomass): The potential retirement of 83 MW of biomass-powered generation using waste wood at Pittsylvania Power Station by 2021. The Pittsylvania facility is also scheduled to be placed in cold reserve in August 2018.
Additional Generation and Retirements in Alternative Plans In addition to the common elements listed above, the various Alternative Plans contain additional resources and potential retirements by 2033, the end of the 15-year planning period.
* Plan A includes one additional CT facility with a total generating capacity of 458 MW.
4
* Plan B includes three additional CT facilities with a total capacity of 1,374 MW; two CT Aero derivatives ("Aero") units with a capacity of approximately 23 8 MW; and an additional 1,920 MW of solar capacity.
* Plan C includes three additional CT plants totaling 1,374 MW; two CT Aero units generating 238 MW; and an additional 1,920 MW of solar capacity.
* Plan D calls for one natural gas-powered combined cycle facility using 2xl technology of approximately 1,062 MW; one additional CT plant of approximately 458 MW; one CT Aero unit of approximately 119 MW; and an additional 1,920 MW of solar capacity.
* Plan E calls for an additional 1,280 MW of solar capacity.
* Finally, Plans B, C, and D include the potential retirement of 1,445 MW of additional coal units:
Chesterfield Unit 5 (336 MW) and Unit 6 (670 MW) by 2023 and Clover Unit 1 (220 MW) and Unit 2 (219 MW) by 2025.
Under Plans B, C, D, and E, the Company's additional solar capacity would reach 7,200 MW at the end of the 25-year study period concluding in 2043. Under Plan A, the Company's additional solar capacity would reach 5,200 MW by the same year.
Cost and Rate Impact of Alternative Plans All of the Alternative Plans envisioning compliance with state or federal carbon regulations would impose higher costs on customers, but the costs and rate impacts of the possible scenarios vary.
The net present value ("NPV") through 2043 of costs associated with the four plans including carbon regulation range from $1.54 billion to $4.04 billion greater than the NPV of the baseline plan (Plan A).
Specifically, the incremental NPVs associated with each of the carbon-regulating alternatives are $1.54 billion (Plan B); $3.71 billion (Plan C); $4.04 billion (Plan D); and $3 .09 billion (Plan E).
Additionally, modeling predicts that carbon regulation compliance would lead to higher bills for Dominion Energy Virginia's customers. By 2030, implementation of Plans B, C, D, or E would result in typical monthly residential bills (for 1,000 kilowatt-hours of usage) ranging from 2.2 percent (Plan E) to 5.6 percent (Plan D) higher than under the baseline plan (Plan A). Expressed in 2018 dollars, the additional monthly cost of electricity by 2030 for a typical residential customer would be $3 .59 under Plan B, $5.01 under Plan C, $5.81 under Plan D, and $2.23 under Plan E.
Dominion Energy Virginia's Commitment Dominion Energy Virginia remains committed to its longstanding goals of operating responsibly; maintaining a diverse, balanced generation fleet that avoids over-reliance on a single fuel type or technology; and providing reliable and affordable energy to its customers. These goals guided development of the 2018 Plan and will guide the Company in the future.
Sincerely, Paul D. Koonce 5
 
Virginia Electric and Power Companys Report of Its Integrated Resource Plan Before the Virginia State Corporation Commission and North Carolina Utilities Commission PUBLIC VERSION Case No. PUR-2018-00065 Docket No. E-100, Sub 157 Filed: May 1, 2018
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 - EXECUTIVE
 
==SUMMARY==
...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN OVERVIEW.................................................................................. 1 1.2 COMPANY DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................................. 4 1.3 2018 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS ................................................................. 4 Figure 1.3.1 - Current Company Capacity Position (2019 - 2033) ............................... 5 Figure 1.3.2 - Current Company Energy Position (2019 - 2033) ................................. 6 1.3.1      CARBON REGULATION.................................................................................................. 6 1.3.2      SCCs 2017 PLAN FINAL ORDER .................................................................................. 7 1.4 2018 PLAN ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 1.4.1 - Alternative Plans .................................................................................. 10 Figure 1.4.2 - Renewable Resources in the Alternative Plans through the Study Period .......................................................................................................................... 13 1.5 COST AND RATE IMPACT OF THE ALTERNATIVE PLANS.......................................................... 13 CHAPTER 2 - LOAD FORECAST............................................................................................................. 15 2.1 FORECAST METHODS ..................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 2.1.1 - Residential Heat Pump (Cooling) Saturation and Usage .................... 16 Figure 2.1.2 - Residential Lighting Saturation ............................................................ 16 Figure 2.1.3 - Residential Lighting Usage .................................................................. 17 2.2 HISTORY & FORECAST BY CUSTOMER CLASS & ASSUMPTIONS ........................................... 17 Figure 2.2.1 - DOM Zone Peak Load ......................................................................... 18 Figure 2.2.2 - DOM Zone Annual Energy................................................................... 18 Figure 2.2.3 - Summary of the Energy Sales & Peak Load Forecast ........................ 19 Figure 2.2.4 - DOM Zone Peak Load Comparison..................................................... 20 Figure 2.2.5 - DOM Zone Annual Energy Comparison .............................................. 20 Figure 2.2.6 - Major Assumptions for the Sales and Peak and Energy Models......... 21 2.3 COMPARISON WITH PJMS 2018 PEAK DEMAND FORECAST FOR THE DOM ZONE.............. 22 Figure 2.3.1 - January 2018 Forecasted Peak and Metered Peaks .......................... 23 2.4 SUMMER & WINTER PEAK DEMAND & ANNUAL ENERGY ......................................................... 23 2.5 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RATES .............................................................................................. 23 CHAPTER 3 - EXISTING AND PROPOSED RESOURCES..................................................................... 24 3.1 SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCES ............................................................................................................ 24 3.1.1      EXISTING GENERATION............................................................................................... 24 Figure 3.1.1.1 - Virginia Electric and Power Company Generation Resources .... 24 Figure 3.1.1.2 -- Generation Fleet Demographics................................................. 25 Figure 3.1.1.3 - 2018 Capacity Resource Mix by Unit Type.................................. 26 Figure 3.1.1.4 - 2017 Actual Capacity Mix ............................................................ 27 Figure 3.1.1.5 - 2017 Actual Energy Mix ............................................................... 27 3.1.2      EXISTING RENEWABLE RESOURCES ....................................................................... 27 Figure 3.1.2.1 - Renewable Rates & Programs .................................................... 28 3.1.3      CHANGES TO EXISTING GENERATION ..................................................................... 29 Figure 3.1.3.1 - Virginia Electric and Power Company CO2 Reductions .............. 30 Figure 3.1.3.2 - Customer Impact CO2 Reductions............................................... 31 Figure 3.1.3.3 - Environmental Regulations .......................................................... 32 3.1.3.1    POTENTIAL STATE CARBON REGULATION ........................................................ 35 3.1.4      GENERATION RETIREMENTS & BLACKSTART ........................................................ 41 3.1.5      GENERATION UNDER CONSTRUCTION .................................................................... 43 Figure 3.1.5.1 - Generation under Construction.................................................... 43 3.1.6      NON-UTILITY GENERATION ........................................................................................ 43 3.1.7      WHOLESALE & PURCHASED POWER ....................................................................... 43 3.2 DEMAND-SIDE RESOURCES........................................................................................................... 44
 
Figure 3.2.1 - DSM Tariffs & Programs ...................................................................... 45 3.2.1    DSM PROGRAM DEFINITIONS..................................................................................... 46 3.2.2    CURRENT DSM TARIFFS.............................................................................................. 46 Figure 3.2.2.1 - Estimated Load Response Data .................................................. 47 3.2.3    CURRENT & COMPLETED DSM PILOTS & DEMONSTRATIONS ............................. 47 3.2.4    CURRENT CONSUMER EDUCATION PROGRAMS.................................................... 49 3.2.5    APPROVED DSM PROGRAMS..................................................................................... 50 3.2.6    PROPOSED DSM PROGRAM EXTENSION ................................................................. 50 3.2.7    EVALUATION, MEASUREMENT & VERIFICATION .................................................... 50 3.3 TRANSMISSION RESOURCES......................................................................................................... 51 3.3.1    EXISTING TRANSMISSION RESOURCES ................................................................... 51 3.3.2    EXISTING TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LINES................................................. 51 3.3.3    TRANSMISSION PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION ............................................ 51 CHAPTER 4 - PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................. 52 4.1 PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................. 52 4.1.1    VIRGINIA RGGI ASSUMPTIONS................................................................................... 52 4.1.2    SOLAR INTEGRATION COST ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................... 52 4.2 PJM CAPACITY PLANNING PROCESS & RESERVE REQUIREMENTS....................................... 52 4.2.1    SHORT-TERM CAPACITY PLANNING PROCESS - RPM .......................................... 52 4.2.2    LONG-TERM CAPACITY PLANNING PROCESS - RESERVE REQUIREMENTS..... 53 Figure 4.2.2.1 - Peak Load Forecast & Reserve Requirements ........................... 54 4.3 RENEWABLE ENERGY..................................................................................................................... 54 4.3.1      VIRGINIA RPS ............................................................................................................... 54 Figure 4.3.1.1 - Virginia RPS Goals ...................................................................... 55 Figure 4.3.1.2 - Renewable Energy Requirements ............................................... 55 4.3.2    NORTH CAROLINA REPS............................................................................................. 55 Figure 4.3.2.1 - North Carolina Total REPS Requirement .................................... 56 Figure 4.3.2.2 - North Carolina Solar Requirement............................................... 56 Figure 4.3.2.3 - North Carolina Swine Waste Requirement.................................. 57 Figure 4.3.2.4 - North Carolina Poultry Waste Requirement................................. 57 4.4 COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................................. 58 4.4.1    FEDERAL CO2 COMMODITY FORECAST ................................................................... 58 Figure 4.4.1.1 - Fuel Price Forecasts - Natural Gas Henry Hub ........................... 59 Figure 4.4.1.2 - Fuel Price Forecasts - Natural Gas DOM Zone........................... 60 Figure 4.4.1.3 - Fuel Price Forecasts - Coal ......................................................... 60 Figure 4.4.1.4 - Fuel Price Forecasts - #2 Oil ....................................................... 61 Figure 4.4.1.5 - Fuel Price Forecasts - #6 Oil ...................................................... 61 Figure 4.4.1.6 - Allowance Price Forecasts - SO2 & NOX .................................... 62 Figure 4.4.1.7 - Allowance Price Forecasts - CO2................................................. 62 Figure 4.4.1.8 - Power Price Forecasts - On Peak............................................... 63 Figure 4.4.1.9 - Power Price Forecasts - Off Peak............................................... 63 Figure 4.4.1.10 - PJM RTO Capacity Price Forecasts .......................................... 64 Figure 4.4.1.11 - 2017 Plan to 2018 Plan Fuel & Power Price Comparison ......... 65 4.4.2    ADDITIONAL COMMODITY PRICES ............................................................................ 65 Figure 4.4.2.1 - 2018 Plan Fuel & Power Price Comparison ................................ 66 4.5 DEVELOPMENT OF DSM PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................. 66 4.6 TRANSMISSION PLANNING............................................................................................................. 67 4.6.1    REGIONAL TRANSMISSION PLANNING & SYSTEM ADEQUACY ........................... 67 4.6.2    STATION SECURITY ..................................................................................................... 67 4.6.3    TRANSMISSION INTERCONNECTIONS ...................................................................... 68 Figure 4.6.3.1 - PJM Interconnection Request Process ........................................ 68 4.7 GAS SUPPLY, ADEQUACY, & RELIABILITY .................................................................................. 69
 
CHAPTER 5 - FUTURE RESOURCES ..................................................................................................... 71 5.1 FUTURE SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCES ............................................................................................ 71 5.1.1      ASSESSMENT OF SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCE ALTERNATIVES .............................. 71 Figure 5.1.1.1 - Alternative Supply-Side Resources ............................................. 71 5.1.2      DISPATCHABLE RESOURCES .................................................................................... 72 5.1.3      NON-DISPATCHABLE RESOURCES ........................................................................... 74 Figure 5.1.3.1 - Onshore Wind Resources............................................................ 75 Figure 5.1.3.2 - Offshore Wind Resources - Virginia ............................................ 75 Figure 5.1.3.3 - Offshore Wind Resources - North Carolina ................................. 76 Figure 5.1.3.4 - Solar PV Resources of the United States.................................... 77 Figure 5.1.3.5 - Solar Eclipse Effect on Solar Resources ..................................... 78 Figure 5.1.3.6 - Solar Eclipse Effect on System Load and Solar Generation ....... 78 5.1.3.1    SOLAR PV INTEGRATION COST ............................................................................ 78 Figure 5.1.3.1.1 - Solar PV Integration Cost Histogram................................... 79 Figure 5.1.3.1.2 - Solar PV Interconnection Cost Schedule ............................ 80 5.1.4      GRID MODERNIZATION ................................................................................................ 82 5.1.5      THIRD-PARTY MARKET ALTERNATIVES TO CAPACITY RESOURCES ................. 83 5.2 LEVELIZED BUSBAR COSTS .......................................................................................................... 84 Figure 5.2.1 - Dispatchable Levelized Busbar Costs (2023 COD)............................. 85 Figure 5.2.2 - Non-Dispatchable Levelized Busbar Costs (2023 COD) ..................... 85 Figure 5.2.3 - Comparison of Resources by Capacity and Annual Energy................ 86 5.3 GENERATION UNDER DEVELOPMENT.......................................................................................... 87 Figure 5.3.1 - Generation under Development........................................................... 88 5.4 EMERGING AND RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT................................ 88 5.5 FUTURE DSM INITIATIVES............................................................................................................... 90 Figure 5.5.1 - Residential Energy Intensities (average kWh over all households) .... 90 Figure 5.5.2 - 2018 Plan vs. DSM System Achievable Market Potential ................... 91 Figure 5.5.3 - DSM Projections/Percent Sales........................................................... 92 5.5.1      STANDARD DSM TESTS............................................................................................... 93 5.5.2      REJECTED DSM PROGRAMS ...................................................................................... 93 Figure 5.5.2.1 - Prior IRP Cycle Rejected DSM Programs ................................... 94 5.5.3      NEW CONSUMER EDUCATION PROGRAMS ............................................................. 94 5.5.4      ASSESSMENT OF OVERALL DEMAND-SIDE OPTIONS ........................................... 94 Figure 5.5.4.1 - DSM Energy Reductions ............................................................. 95 Figure 5.5.4.2 - DSM Demand Reductions ........................................................... 95 Figure 5.5.4.3 - Comparison of per MWh Costs of Selected Generation Resources ........................................................................ 96 5.5.5      LOAD DURATION CURVES ......................................................................................... 97 Figure 5.5.5.1 -Load Duration Curve 2019............................................................ 97 Figure 5.5.5.2 - Load Duration Curve 2023........................................................... 97 Figure 5.5.5.3 - Load Duration Curve 2033........................................................... 98 5.6 FUTURE TRANSMISSION PROJECTS ............................................................................................ 98 CHAPTER 6 - DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN ......................................... 99 6.1 IRP PROCESS ................................................................................................................................... 99 Figure 6.1.1 - Plan Development Process................................................................ 100 6.2 CAPACITY & ENERGY NEEDS ...................................................................................................... 101 Figure 6.2.1 - Current Company Capacity Position (2019 - 2033) .......................... 101 Figure 6.2.2 - Actual Reserve Margin without New Resources................................ 102 Figure 6.2.3 - Current Company Energy Position (2019 - 2033)............................. 102 6.3 MODELING PROCESSES & TECHNIQUES................................................................................... 103 Figure 6.3.1 - Supply-Side Resources Available in PLEXOS .................................. 103 6.4 ALTERNATIVE PLANS.................................................................................................................... 104 Figure 6.4.2 - Renewable Resources in the Alternative Plans through the Study Period ........................................................................................................................ 107
 
Figure 6.4.3 - Virginia CO2 Output from Dominion Energy Virginia units for the Alternative Plans ............................................................................................ 107 6.5 ALTERNATIVE PLANS NPV COMPARISON ................................................................................. 107 Figure 6.5.1 - NPV Compliance Cost of the Alternative Plans over Plan A ............. 108 Figure 6.5.2 - Incremental NPV Compliance Cost of the Alternative Plans over Plan A (2019 - 2043) ........................................................................................ 108 6.6 RATE IMPACT ANALYSIS .............................................................................................................. 108 Figure 6.6.1 - Monthly Rate Increase of Alternative Plans vs. Plan A ..................... 109 Figure 6.6.2 - Monthly Rate Increase of Alternative Plans vs. Plan A ..................... 110 Figure 6.6.3 - Residential Monthly Bill Increase for Alternative Plans compared to Plan A ........................................................................................................................ 111 Figure 6.6.4 - Residential Monthly Bill Increase for Alternative Plans compared to Plan A ........................................................................................................................ 111 Figure 6.6.5 - Residential Monthly Bill Increase for Alternative Plans compared to Plan A ........................................................................................................................ 112 Figure 6.6.6 - Residential Monthly Bill Increase for Alternative Plans compared to Plan A ........................................................................................................................ 112 6.7 COMPREHENSIVE RISK ANALYSIS ............................................................................................. 113 6.7.1      OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................... 113 6.7.2      PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT.............................................................................. 114 Figure 6.7.2.1 - Alternative Plan Portfolio Risk Assessment Results ................. 114 Figure 6.7.2.2 - Alternative Plans Mean-Variance Plot ...................................... 115 6.7.3      INCLUSION OF THE DISCOUNT RATE AS A CRITERION IN RISK ANALYSIS ..... 115 Figure 6.7.3.1 - Plan D: RGGI (limited imports) Risk Assessment Results ....... 116 Figure 6.7.3.2 - Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) Risk Assessment Results ... 116 6.7.4      IDENTIFICATION OF LEVELS OF NATURAL GAS GENERATION WITH EXCESSIVE COST RISKS ................................................................................ 116 6.7.5      OPERATING COST RISK ASSESSMENT .................................................................. 117 Figure 6.7.5.1 - Impact of Fixed Price Natural Gas on Levelized Average Cost and Operating Cost Risk - No Natural Gas at Fixed Price ................................. 118 Figure 6.7.5.2 - Impact of Fixed Price Natural Gas on Levelized Average Cost and Operating Cost Risk - 10% of Natural Gas at Fixed Price .......................... 118 Figure 6.7.5.3 - Impact of Fixed Price Natural Gas on Levelized Average Cost and Operating Cost Risk - 20% of Natural Gas at Fixed Price .......................... 118 Figure 6.7.5.4 - Impact of Fixed Price Natural Gas on Levelized Average Cost and Operating Cost Risk - 30% of Natural Gas at Fixed Price .......................... 119 Figure 6.7.5.5 - Cost Adders for a Fixed Price Natural Gas Long-Term Contract ............................................................................................................... 119 Figure 6.7.5.6 - Hypothetical Example of the Cost of Purchasing 100 MMcf/day of Natural Gas ............................................................................. 120 Figure 6.7.5.7 - Hypothetical Example of the Cost of Purchasing 100 MMcf/day of Natural Gas ............................................................................. 120 Figure 6.7.5.8 - Map of Key Natural Gas Pipelines and Trading Hubs .............. 121 Figure 6.7.5.9 - Natural Gas Daily Average Price Ranges - Henry Hub ........... 122 Figure 6.7.5.10 - Natural Gas Daily Average Price Ranges - Transco Zone 5 . 122 Figure 6.7.5.11 - Natural Gas Daily Average Price Ranges - South Point........ 123 6.8 GENERATION UNIT RETIREMENTS.............................................................................................. 123 6.9 MISCELLANEOUS ANALYSIS........................................................................................................ 124 Figure 6.9.1 - Retirement Analysis Results .............................................................. 124 Figure 6.9.2 - PJM Low Load Build Plan .................................................................. 125 Figure 6.9.3 - Low Load NPV Comparison............................................................... 125 6.10 2018 PLAN ..................................................................................................................................... 126
 
CHAPTER 7 - SHORT-TERM ACTION PLAN ........................................................................................ 127 7.1 DIFFERENCES IN THE STAP FROM THE 2017 PLAN TO THE 2018 PLAN ............................... 128 Figure 7.1.1 - Changes between the 2017 and 2018 Short-Term Action Plans ...... 128 7.2 GENERATION RESOURCES .......................................................................................................... 128 Figure 7.2.2 - Generation under Development......................................................... 129 7.3 RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES........................................................................................... 129 Figure 7.3.1 - Renewable Resources by 2023 ......................................................... 130 7.4 TRANSMISSION .............................................................................................................................. 130 Figure 7.4.1 - Planned Transmission Additions ....................................................... 131 7.5 DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT ..................................................................................................... 132 Figure 7.5.1 - DSM Projected Savings By 2023....................................................... 133 7.6 GTSA COMPLIANCE....................................................................................................................... 133 Figure 7.6.1 - GTSA Mandates ................................................................................ 133 Figure 7.6.2 - GTSA Mandated Reports................................................................... 135 APPENDIX Appendix 1A - Plan A: No CO2 Tax - Capacity & Energy ................................................................... 137 Appendix 1A - Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports) - Capacity & Energy ............................. 138 Appendix 1A - Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) - Capacity & Energy............................................ 139 Appendix 1A - Plan D: RGGI (limited imports) - Capacity & Energy ................................................ 140 Appendix 1A - Plan E: Federal CO2 Program - Capacity & Energy .................................................. 141 Appendix 1B - CPP Scenario ................................................................................................................ 142 Appendix 2A - Total Sales by Customer Class ................................................................................... 143 Appendix 2B - Virginia Sales by Customer Class............................................................................... 144 Appendix 2C - North Carolina Sales by Customer Class................................................................... 145 Appendix 2D - Total Customer Count .................................................................................................. 146 Appendix 2E - Virginia Customer Count.............................................................................................. 147 Appendix 2F - North Carolina Customer Count .................................................................................. 148 Appendix 2G - Zonal Summer and Winter Peak Demand .................................................................. 149 Appendix 2H - Summer & Winter Peaks for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program...................................... 150 Appendix 2I - Projected Summer & Winter Peak Load & Energy Forecast for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program........................................................................................................... 151 Appendix 2J - Required Reserve Margin for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program .................................... 152 Appendix 2K - Economic Assumptions used In the Sales and Hourly Budget Forecast Model ... 153 Appendix 3A - Existing Generation Units in Service.......................................................................... 154 Appendix 3B - Other Generation Units ................................................................................................ 156 Appendix 3C - Equivalent Availability Factor for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program ............................. 165 Appendix 3D - Net Capacity Factor for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program.............................................. 167 Appendix 3E - Heat Rates for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program ............................................................. 169 Appendix 3F - Existing Capacity for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program.................................................. 171 Appendix 3G - Energy Generation by Type for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program ................................ 172 Appendix 3H - Energy Generation by Type for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program ................................ 173 Appendix 3I - Planned Changes to Existing Generation Units.......................................................... 174 Appendix 3J - Potential Unit Retirements............................................................................................ 176 Appendix 3K - Generation under Construction................................................................................... 177 Appendix 3L - Wholesale Power Sales Contracts .............................................................................. 178 Appendix 3M - Description of Active DSM Programs......................................................................... 179 Appendix 3N - Approved Programs Non-Coincidental Peak Savings for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program........................................................................................................... 184 Appendix 3O - Approved Programs Coincidental Peak Savings for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program........................................................................................................... 185 Appendix 3P - Approved Programs Energy Savings for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program................. 186 Appendix 3Q - Approved Programs Penetrations for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program...................... 187
 
Appendix 3R - List of Transmission Lines under Construction........................................................ 188 Appendix 4A - ICF Commodity Price Forecasts for Virginia Electric and Power Company........... 189 Appendix 4B - Delivered Fuel Data for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program .............................................. 205 Appendix 5A - Tabular Results of Busbar ............................................................................................ 206 Appendix 5B - Busbar Assumptions..................................................................................................... 207 Appendix 5C - Planned Generation under Development ................................................................... 208 Appendix 5D - Standard DSM Test Descriptions ................................................................................ 209 Appendix 5E - DSM Programs Energy Savings for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program.......................... 210 Appendix 5F - Cost Estimates for Nuclear License Extensions........................................................ 211 Appendix 6A - Renewable Resources for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program ......................................... 212 Appendix 6B - Potential Supply-Side Resources for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program....................... 213 Appendix 6C - Summer Capacity Position for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program.................................. 214 Appendix 6D - Construction Forecast for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program ......................................... 215 Appendix 6E - Capacity Position for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program ................................................. 216
 
LIST OF ACRONYMS Acronym                                                      Meaning 2017 Plan 2017 Integrated Resource Plan 2018 Plan 2018 Integrated Resource Plan AMI    Advanced Metering Infrastructure AERO    Aero-derivative Generation BTMG    Behind-the-Meter Generation Btu    British Thermal Unit CAA    Clean Air Act CAGR    Compound Annual Growth Rate CAPP    Central Appalachian CC    Combined-Cycle CCR    Cost Containment Reserve CCS    Carbon Capture and Sequestration CFB    Circulating Fluidized Bed CFL    Compact Florescent Light CO2    Carbon Dioxide COD    Commercial Operation Date COL    Combined Operating License Company  Virginia Electric and Power Company CPCN    Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity CPP    Clean Power Plan, Rule 111(d)
CSAPR    Cross-State Air Pollution Rule CSP    Concentrating Solar Power CT    Combustion Turbine CVOW    Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project (formerly VOWTAP)
DC    Direct Current DEQ    Virginia Department of Environmental Quality DER    Distributed Energy Resource(s)
DG    Distributed Generation DOE    U.S. Department of Energy DOM LSE  Dominion Energy Load Serving Entity DOM Zone  Dominion Energy Zone within the PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. Regional Transmission Organization DSM    Demand-Side Management EC    Enactment Clause ECR    Emission Containment Reserve ED-11  Executive Directive 11 EGU    Electric Generating Unit(s)
EI    Eastern Interconnect EIA    U.S. Energy Information Administration EM&V    Evaluation, Measurement, and Verification EO-57  Executive Order 57 EPA    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPC    Engineering, Procurement, and Construction EV    Electric Vehicle FERC    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission GHG    Greenhouse Gas GSP    Gross State Product GTSA    Grid Transformation and Security Act of 2018 GWh    Gigawatt Hour(s)
Hg    Mercury HVAC    Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning IGCC    Integrated-Gasification Combined-Cycle IRM    Installed Reserve Margin IRP    Integrated Resource Planning kW    Kilowatt(s) kWh    Kilowatt Hour(s)
LED    Light Emitting Diode LMP    Locational Marginal Pricing LNG    Liquid Natural Gas LOLE    Loss of Load Expectation LSE    Load Serving Entity
 
Acronym                                                      Meaning MATS  Mercury and Air Toxics Standards MMBTU  Million British Thermal Unit(s)
MMCF  Million Cubic Feet MW    Megawatt(s)
MWh    Megawatt Hour(s)
NAAQS  National Ambient Air Quality Standards NCGS  North Carolina General Statute NCUC  North Carolina Utilities Commission NERC  North American Electric Reliability Corporation NGCC  Natural Gas Combined Cycle NGCS  North Carolina General Statute(s)
NOx  Nitrogen Oxide NODA  Notice of Data Availability NPV  Net Present Value NRC  Nuclear Regulatory Commission NREL  The National Renewable Energy Laboratory NSPS  New Source Performance Standards NUG    Non-Utility Generation or Non-Utility Generator O&M    Operation and Maintenance OEM    Original Equipment Manufacturers PJM  PJM Interconnection, L.L.C.
Plan  2018 Integrated Resource Plan PLEXOS  PLEXOS Model PPA  Power Purchase Agreement PPB  Parts Per Billion PTC  Production Tax Credit PURPA  Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 PV    Photovoltaic RACT  Reasonable Available Control Technology REC  Renewable Energy Certificate(s)
REPS  Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (NC)
RFC  Reliability First Corporation RFP  Request for Proposal RGGI  Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative RIM  Ratepayer Impact Measure RPM    Reliability Pricing Model RPS  Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (VA)
RTEP  Regional Transmission Expansion Plan RTO  Regional Transmission Organization SB 1418 Senate Bill 1418 SCC  Virginia State Corporation Commission SCPC  Super Critical Pulverized Coal SCR  Selective Catalytic Reduction SG    Standby Generation SIP  State Implementation Plan SMR    Small Modular Reactors SNCR  Selective Non-Catalytic Reduction SO2  Sulfur Dioxide ST    Short-Term STAP  Short-Term Action Plan TCJA  Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 TRC  Total Resource Cost Va. Code Code of Virginia VCHEC  Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center VOW    Virginia Offshore Wind Coalition VOWDA  Virginia Offshore Wind Development Authority VSAPCB  Virginia State Air Pollution Control Board WACC  Weighted Average Cost of Capital WEA    Wind Energy Area
 
CHAPTER 1 - EXECUTIVE
 
==SUMMARY==
 
1.1 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN OVERVIEW Virginia Electric and Power Company (the Company) hereby files its 2018 Integrated Resource Plan (2018 Plan) with the Virginia State Corporation Commission (SCC) in accordance with
    § 56-599 of the Code of Virginia (or Va. Code) and the SCCs guidelines issued on December 23, 2008. The Company also files the 2018 Plan with the North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC) in accordance with § 62-2 of the North Carolina General Statutes (NCGS) and Rule R8-60 of NCUCs Rules and Regulations.
The 2018 Plan was prepared for the Dominion Energy Load Serving Entity (DOM LSE) and represents the Companys service territories in the Commonwealth of Virginia and the State of North Carolina, which are part of the PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. (PJM) Regional Transmission Organization (RTO). Subject to current provisions of Virginia and North Carolina law, the Company prepares an integrated resource plan (generally, Plan) for filing in each jurisdiction every year. 1 On May 1, 2017, the Company filed its 2017 Plan with the SCC (Case No. PUR-2017-00051) and with the NCUC (Docket No. E-100, Sub 147). On March 12, 2018, the SCC issued its Final Order finding the 2017 Plan (2017 Plan Final Order) reasonable and in the public interest for the specific and limited purpose of filing the planning document as mandated by Va. Code § 56-597 et seq. On April 16, 2018, the NCUC issued an Order accepting the 2017 Plan as complete and fulfilling the requirements set out in NCUC Rule R8-60.2 The Company is committed to addressing concerns and requirements identified by the SCC or the NCUC in prior relevant orders that continue to be applicable, as well as current and pending provisions of state and federal law. Notably, the Plan continues to evaluate compliance with the likely greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations that may be promulgated by the Commonwealth of Virginia or the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), or both. Since 2014, key elements of each of the Companys Plans have focused on compliance with the EPAs proposed Clean Power Plan (CPP). On March 28, 2017, however, President Trump issued an Executive Order directing the administrator of the EPA to begin the process of reviewing the CPP and, if appropriate, to revise or rescind the rule as soon as practicable.
On April 3 and 4, 2017, in response to the Executive Order, the EPA issued notices announcing that it was initiating a review of the entire CPP and the 111(b) rules.3 On October 16, 2017, the EPA published a proposal to repeal the CPP, which did not include a replacement rule. However, on December 28, 2017, the EPA issued an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking to solicit input on whether it should proceed with a replacement rule, and if so, what the scope of such a rule should be. The EPA has conducted public hearings on its proposed repeal of the CPP and conducted public listening sessions on the subject in February and March 2018.
1 Effective July 1, 2018, Va. Code § 56-599 A requires the Company to file an updated integrated resource plan in Virginia to by May 1, in each year immediately preceding the year the utility is subject to a triennial review filing. The Company is subject to triennial review filings beginning in 2021 and continuing every three years thereafter. In North Carolina, NCUC Rule R-60(h)(1) requires the Company to file an integrated resource plan every two years. Accordingly, after the 2018 Plan, the next full integrated resource plan will be filed by May 1, 2020.
The Company will comply with all applicable rules and guidelines regarding filing a narrative summary or update report in 2019.
2 The April 16, 2018 NCUC Order also accepted the Companys REPS compliance plan.
3 The 111(b) rules set standards of performance for GHG emissions from new, modified, or reconstructed EGUs.
1
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary Given these events, the Company no longer believes the CPP to be a current or pending regulation. Nevertheless, based on a broad reading of the SCCs directive in its 2017 Plan Final Order that the Companys future Plans contain plans that comply with the requirement of Va. Code § 56-599 B 9 to include the most cost effective means of complying with current and pending state and federal environmental regulations, the Company provides a build plan under the CPP and the resulting net present value (NPV) analysis in Appendix 1B in this 2018 Plan. In addition, the Company anticipates that some form of carbon dioxide (CO2) regulation may happen at the federal level and, as a result, it has assessed a generic federal carbon program (the Federal CO2 Program) in this 2018 Plan.
The Company also anticipates that there may be some form of carbon regulation at the state level.
In the 2018 Regular Session, the Virginia General Assembly considered legislation through which Virginia would join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). Initiated in 2009, RGGI is a collaborative effort to cap and reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector currently among the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. 4 The legislation failed, but the General Assembly could reconsider such legislation in the future. Accordingly, the Company has assessed the effects of joining RGGI on the current and future generation portfolio.
Separate from the legislative process, former Virginia Governor McAuliffe issued Executive Directive 11 (ED-11) in May 2017 directing the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) to draft regulations that would cap CO2 emissions from Virginias electric generating units (EGUs). On November 7, 2017, the DEQ released a draft proposal to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuel-fired EGUs in Virginia pursuant to ED-11 (the Virginia RGGI Program or Virginia RGGI). The proposal seeks to establish a CO2 emissions cap-and-trade program in Virginia with intended linkage to RGGI, including most of the elements of the modifications to the RGGI model rule finalized by RGGI in December 2017. A more detailed description of the Virginia RGGI Program, as well as RGGI itself, is included in Chapter 3. In light of this action by the Commonwealth of Virginia, the Company has also elected to assess the impacts of state-level carbon regulation in the form of Virginia RGGI in this 2018 Plan. A few points regarding the proposed Virginia RGGI Program are worth noting. As detailed in Section 3.1.3.1, the Company maintains:
* Virginias linkage to RGGI will encourage electricity imports from out-of-state sources that are more carbon-intensive. The program will result in a significant increase in power imports while highly-efficient and lower-emitting natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) facilities in Virginia will run less;
* Reductions in carbon emissions in Virginia, as a result of the increased use of imported power, will be offset by emission increases elsewhere within the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Eastern Interconnect (EI), which includes all of PJM and the RGGI region;
* Increased imports of more carbon-intensive power will result in the carbon footprint per customer in Virginia increasing by about 5.7% by 2030; and
* Linking to RGGI could impose over $500 million in additional cost to Virginia customers during the 2020 to 2030 period.
As in prior Plans, the Companys objective in the 2018 Plan is to identify a mix of resources necessary to meet its customers projected energy and capacity needs in an efficient and reliable manner at the lowest reasonable cost while considering future uncertainties. The Companys options for meeting these future needs are: (i) supply-side resources, (ii) demand-side resources, 4 New Jersey, an original participant in RGGI, withdrew from the program in 2013, but has recently announced that it will initiate a process to rejoin the program.
2
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary and (iii) market purchases. A balanced approachwhich includes the consideration of options for maintaining and enhancing rate stability, increasing energy independence, promoting economic development, and incorporating input from stakeholderswill help the Company meet growing demand while protecting customers from a variety of potential challenges and negative impacts.
The 2018 Plan, like its predecessors, presents a range of alternatives representing plausible paths forward for the Company to meet the future energy needs of its customers. Specifically, the Company presents five different alternative plans (collectively, the Alternative Plans) designed to meet customers needs in the future under different carbon regulation scenarios.
The Company primarily used the PLEXOS model (PLEXOS), a utility modeling and resource optimization tool, to develop this 2018 Plan over the 25-year period beginning in 2019 and continuing through 2043 (the Study Period), using 2018 as the base year. The 2018 Plan is based on the Companys current assumptions regarding load growth, commodity prices, economic conditions, environmental regulations, construction and equipment costs, demand-side management (DSM) programs, and many other regulatory and market developments that may occur during the Study Period.
The Companys comprehensive planning process considers significant emerging policy, market, and technical developments that could impact its operations and, in turn, its customers. On the policy front, these developments include the passage of the Grid Transformation and Security Act of 2018 (the GTSA), which was recently signed into law in Virginia and will become effective July 1, 2018.
The GTSA established a number of policy objectives, including encouraging grid transformation projects and renewable energy generation, and supporting an increased focus on energy efficiency programs. In the 2017 Plan Final Order, the SCC directed the Company to include detailed plans to implement the mandates contained in [the GTSA] in the 2018 Plan. The Company discusses its GTSA-related plans in Chapter 7.
On the market front, significant emerging developments include the cost effectiveness of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, which is currently cost competitive with other more traditional forms of generation like combined-cycle (CC) natural gas. Each of the Alternative Plans includes a considerable amount of solar resources. This is due to the zero-emission characteristics of solar generation and because the installed cost of solar PV generation is a cost-effective option. The Alternative Plans call for solar additions ranging from approximately 5,000 MW (nameplate) to approximately 7,000 MW (nameplate) during the 25-year Study Period. Within the shorter 15-year period of 2019 to 2033 (the Planning Period), the Alternative Plans call for solar additions ranging from approximately 4,500 MW (nameplate) to approximately 6,400 MW (nameplate).
The 2018 Plan includes for modeling purposes utility-scale solar facilities that are assumed to be between 20 MW and 80 MW in size and predominately interconnected to the Companys transmission network. In reality, solar PV can be a collection of different-sized facilities ranging from 5 kilowatts (kW) to 100 MW or more, which may be interconnected along the Companys transmission or distribution network.
As encouraged by the GTSA, the Company is taking steps to modernize its electric power grid. A modernized grid will create a more dynamic system that is better able to respond to the growth of utility-scale solar facilities and the proliferation of smaller, widely-dispersed distributed energy resources (DERs). A discussion of the Companys grid modernization efforts is included in Chapter 5.
Included in this 2018 Plan are sections on load forecasting (Chapter 2), existing resources and resources currently under development (Chapter 3), planning assumptions (Chapter 4), and future resources, including grid modernization (Chapter 5). Additionally, there is a section describing the 3
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary development of the Plan (Chapter 6), which defines the integrated resource planning (IRP) process and outlines the Alternative Plans. In Chapter 6, the Company compares the Alternative Plans by weighing the costs of those plans against the risks of the plans using a comprehensive risk analysis.
This analysis allowed the Company to examine the Alternative Plans given significant industry uncertainties, such as environmental regulations, commodity and construction prices, and resource mix. Also included in Chapter 6 is an analysis that compares the customer rate impact of each of the Alternative Plans. This analysis assumes the Company maintains its current customer base and realizes the customer growth forecasted in this 2018 Plan. Current law allows certain customers to purchase energy and capacity from competitive service providers. To the extent the Companys customer base declines, all other things being equal, then the rate increases depicted in this analysis will likely be higher.
Finally, a short-term action plan (STAP) is included in Chapter 7, which discusses the Companys specific actions to support the 2018 Plan over the next five years (2019 to 2023). The Company maintains that the STAP represents the short-term path forward that will best meet the energy and capacity needs of its customers at the lowest reasonable cost over the next five years, with due quantification, consideration, and analysis of future risks and uncertainties facing the industry, the Company, and its customers.
As always, it should be noted that inclusion of a project or resource in any given years integrated resource plan is not a commitment to construct or implement a particular project, or a request for approval of any particular project. Similarly, inclusion of a unit retirement in a plan should be considered as tentative only; the Company has not made any decision regarding the retirement of any generating unit. Conversely, not including a specific project or retirement in a given years plan does not preclude the Company from including that project or retirement in subsequent regulatory filings. Rather, an integrated resource plan is a long-term planning document based on current market information and projections, and should be viewed in that context.
1.2 COMPANY DESCRIPTION Headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, the Company currently serves approximately 2.5 million electric customers located in approximately 30,000 square miles of Virginia and North Carolina. The Companys supply-side portfolio consists of 18,611 MW of generation capacity, including approximately 346 MW of fossil-fueled and renewable non-utility generation (NUG) resources, approximately 6,600 miles of transmission lines at voltages ranging from 69 kilovolts (kV) to 500 kV, and approximately 57,000 miles of distribution lines at voltages ranging from 4 kV to 46 kV in Virginia, North Carolina, and West Virginia. The Company is a member of PJM, the operator of the wholesale electric grid in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States.
The Company has a diverse mix of generating resources consisting of Company-owned nuclear, fossil, hydroelectric, pumped storage, biomass, and solar facilities. Additionally, the Company purchases capacity and energy from NUGs and the PJM market.
1.3 2018 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS In order to meet future customer needs at the lowest reasonable cost while maintaining reliability and flexibility, the Company must take into consideration the uncertainties and risks associated with the energy industry. Uncertainties assessed in this 2018 Plan include:
* load growth in the Companys service territory;
* effective and anticipated EPA regulations concerning air, water, and solid waste constituents (as shown in Figure 3.1.3.3);
* potential state carbon regulation programs such as the Virginia RGGI Program or RGGI; 4
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
* fuel prices;
* cost and performance of energy technologies;
* renewable energy goals, including integration of intermittent renewable generation;
* current and future DSM programs; and
* retirement of Company-owned generation units.
The Company developed this 2018 Plan based on its evaluation of various supply- and demand-side alternatives, and in consideration of acceptable levels of risk, that maintain the option to develop a diverse mix of resources for the benefit of its customers. Various planning groups throughout the Company provided input and insight into evaluating all viable options, including existing generation, DSM programs, and new (both traditional and alternative) resources to meet the growing demand in the Companys service territory. The IRP process began with the development of the Companys long-term load forecast, which indicates that the DOM LSE is expected to experience annual increases of 1.4% in both future summer peak demand and energy requirements over the Planning Period (2019 to 2033). Collectively, these elements assisted in determining updated capacity and energy requirements as illustrated in Figures 1.3.1 and 1.3.2.
Figure 1.3.1 - Current Company Capacity Position (2019 - 2033) 26,000 24,000 22,000                                                                              Capacity Gap      5,501 20,000 Approved DSM MW 304 18,000 Generation Under Construction                  1,585 NUGs 144 16,000 Existing Generation1                                  16,490 14,000 12,000 10,000 Note: The values in the boxes represent total capacity in 2033.
: 1) Accounts for potential unit retirements and rating changes to existing units in the Plan, and reflects summer ratings.
: 2) See Section 4.2.2.
5
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary Figure 1.3.2 - Current Company Energy Position (2019 - 2033) 120,000 110,000 100,000                                            Approved DSM            Energy Gap        25,935 90,000 Generation Under Construction                                      805 GWh  80,000  NUGs                                                                              11,964 1,402 70,000 60,000 Existing Generation1 72,169 50,000 40,000 Note: The values in the boxes represent total energy in 2033.
: 1) Accounts for potential unit retirements and rating changes to existing units in the Plan, and reflects summer ratings.
1.3.1    CARBON REGULATION Despite the current uncertainty regarding future federal policies, the Company believes that carbon regulation of power station emissions is virtually assured in the future. The Company is a leader in the transition to a lower carbon future and its past, present, and planned future actions provide evidence of that commitment. The Company began this transition well before the emergence of the federal CPP and even before the emergence of RGGI.
The Company has supported efforts to reduce GHG and lower its carbon intensity with several actions. First, the Company has added 56 MW (nameplate) of solar generation through the addition of the Scott, Whitehouse, and Woodland solar projects. Second, the Company has steadily reduced the coal-powered portion of its fleet serving Virginia customers. Third, new generating units using highly-efficient CC technology and powered by lower-emissions natural gas, have been placed into service. In addition, the nuclear units at Surry and North Anna continue, by far, to be the Companys most abundant source of zero-emissions generation, which have lowered and continue to lower the Companys carbon footprint by approximately 22 million tons of CO2 per year. To put this into perspective, the Companys nuclear fleet is equivalent to over 100,000 acres of solar PV.
As a result of these actions, from 2000 to 2017, the carbon intensitymeasured by the annual amount of CO2 emissions emitted per megawatt-hour (MWh) of net generationof the Companys units serving Virginia jurisdictional customers has declined by 35%. At the same time, power production by these units has increased by 14%. The carbon intensity for all electric generation in Virginia, including the generation units owned by the Company and other sources, compares very favorably to nearby states according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration 6
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary (EIA). 5 Based on 2016 EIA data, Virginia ranks 11th among 13 states in PJMs control area, making it the third lowest state in terms of carbon intensity.
Planned future action by the Company will continue to support the transition to a lower carbon future.
For example, the Company plans to place over 1,200 MW of fossil-fueled generation into cold reserve by the end of the year. The Company is also moving aggressively to expand its use of renewable resources, with its investment in solar projects in Virginia and North Carolina approaching
    $1 billion with a total of 1,350 MW of capacity in service, under construction, or under development.
Additionally, the Company is one of the largest generators in the nation using renewable biomass and is developing an offshore wind demonstration project to be located off the coast of Virginia Beach. Further, the Company is in the process of evaluating a hydroelectric pumped storage facility in southwestern Virginia that could be supported by generators using renewable energy.
1.3.2        SCCs 2017 PLAN FINAL ORDER As mentioned above, the SCCs 2017 Plan Final Order found the 2017 Plan to be in the public interest for the specific and limited purpose of filing the planning document. The SCC noted that Virginia Governor Northam had signed the GTSA into law, and directed the Company to evaluate the GTSA in this 2018 Plan: The Commissiondirects that Dominions future IRPs, beginning with the IRP filed on May 1, 2018, shall include detailed plans to implement the mandates contained in that legislation. The Company discusses its GTSA-related plans in Chapter 7.
1.4 2018 PLAN Consistent with past Plans, the Company presents five Alternative Plans that represent plausible future paths for meeting the future electric needs of its customers. Given the current status of the CPP, none of these Alternative Plans evaluates a generation portfolio expansion based on implementation of the CPP. 6 Instead, this 2018 Plan assesses the portfolio expansions necessary to meet compliance with the Virginia RGGI Program as proposed (with allowances allocated to generators under a consignment auction), with RGGI (with direct auction of allowances), and with a potential Federal CO2 Program consistent with the forecast provided by ICF, a global energy consulting firm. As required, the Company has also included an Alternative Plan that estimates future generation expansion in a world where there are no new limits on CO2 emissions. This Alternative Plan is only presented to measure the cost of GHG program compliance. But the Company fully expects that some form of GHG regulation or legislation is likely and is planning accordingly.
As noted above, while Virginia appears to be moving forward with state-level GHG regulation, little has been settled with respect to the exact rules surrounding future GHG regulation since the publication of the 2017 Plan.
Therefore, at this time, and as was the case in the 2015, 2016, and 2017 Plans, the Company did not identify a Preferred Plan or a recommended long-term path forward beyond the STAP. Rather, the Company is presenting the Alternative Plans that are described below. The Company believes the Alternative Plans represent plausible future paths for meeting the future electric needs of its customers.
5 EIAs State Electricity Profiles are located at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/.
6 Nevertheless, the Company includes a CPP scenario in Appendix 1B. The Company also notes that RGGI is more restrictive than the originally-proposed CPP. The Company assesses a plausible future path complying with Virginia RGGI or RGGI in Alternative Plans B, C, and D.
7
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary All of the Alternative Plans were designed using least-cost planning techniques and are as follows:
* Plan A: No CO2 Tax: This Alternative Plan assumes the highly unlikely scenario of no new regulations or restrictions on CO2 emissions. Plan A selects significant levels of solar PV generation, as it is currently cost competitive with other traditional generation technologies as described above. Plan A serves as a least-cost baseline for comparing the results of the other plans.
* Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports): This Alterative Plan was designed assuming that the Virginia RGGI Program is approved as proposed in the form of the current draft regulation issued by the State Air Pollution Control Board. Plan B assumes that the Companys compliance with RGGI under the Virginia RGGI Program is largely met through the use of more carbon intensive imported energy and capacity.
* Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports): This Alternative Plan assumes that Virginia is a full member of RGGI. Plan C assumes that the Companys compliance with RGGI is largely met through the use of more carbon intensive imported energy and capacity.
* Plan D: RGGI (limited imports): This Alternative Plan assumes that Virginia is a full member of RGGI. Plan D assumes that the Companys compliance with RGGI is met through generation build within Virginia and limited imported power.
* Plan E: Federal CO2 Program: This Alternative Plan assumes that Virginia does not join RGGI (either directly or through the Virginia RGGI Program) and that federal CO2 legislation or the regulatory equivalent is enacted beginning in 2026.
Going forward, the Company will continue to analyze both the operational implications and challenges of meeting carbon restrictions, adding renewable generation, and keeping existing generation operational, including coal, oil, and biomass units, when doing so is in the best interest of customers and the Commonwealth in compliance with federal and state laws and regulations. The Company will also continue to work to maintain its long-standing service tradition of providing competitive rates, a diverse mix of generation, and reliable service. The Company continues to believe that these three factors are closely interrelated.
As mentioned above, to assess the uncertainty and risks associated with external market and environmental factors, the Company developed the Alternative Plans representing plausible future paths the Company could follow to meet the future electric power needs of its customers. There are approximately 5,000 MW (nameplate) of new solar generation within the Study Period (2019 to 2043), with at least approximately 4,500 MW (nameplate) of new solar capacity being added by the end of the Planning Period (2019 to 2033).
The Alternative Plans also include the 12 MW (nameplate) Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project (CVOW) as early as 2021; 760 MW (nameplate) of Virginia and North Carolina solar generation from NUGs either currently or expected to be under long-term contracts by 2020; and the 1,585 MW (nameplate) Greensville County Power Station which is currently under construction and planned to enter commercial operation by 2019. Additionally, the Alternative Plans include Company-owned Virginia utility-scale solar generation: the US-3 Solar 1 Facility, 142 MW (nameplate); and the US-3 Solar 2 Facility, 98 MW (nameplate). The US-3 Solar 1 and 2 Facilities are currently under development; the Company tentatively plans to file with the SCC for required approvals in 2018.
All of the Alternative Plans also include the Companys placement of 10 generating units into cold reserve in 2018. Bellemeade Power Station, Bremo Power Station Units 3 and 4, and Mecklenburg Power Station Units 1 and 2 were placed into cold reserve in April 2018. Pittsylvania Power Station will be placed into cold reserve in August 2018. Chesterfield Power Station Units 3 and 4 and Possum Point Power Station Units 3 and 4 will be placed into cold reserve in December 2018.
8
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary These units are currently planned to remain in cold reserve until 2021. Cold reserve does not mean permanent retirement. These units, which total 1,292 MW of generation, can be reactivated in approximately six months if system needs and market conditions dictate. The Company will continue to maintain all required environmental permits for the units and continue to pay property taxes to the localities in accordance with the relevant property tax assessment.
The Alternative Plans also assume that all of the Companys existing nuclear generation will receive 20-year license extensions that lengthen their useful lives beyond the Study Period. The license extensions for Surry Units 1 and 2 are included in 2032 and 2033, respectively, extending the licensed life to 2052 and 2053, respectively, and the license extensions for North Anna Units 1 and 2 in 2038 and 2040, extending the licensed life to 2058 and 2060, respectively.
The Alternative Plans are discussed further below and are summarized in Figure 1.4.1.
9
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary Figure 1.4.1 - Alternative Plans Plan B:                    Plan C:              Plan D:
Plan A:                                                                                                    Plan E:
Year                                      Virginia RGGI                    RGGI                  RGGI No CO2 Tax                                                                                          Federal CO2 Program (unlimited imports)        (unlimited imports)    (limited imports)
Approved DSM: 304 MW, 805 GWh by 2033 Greensville                  Greensville                Greensville          Greensville                Greensville 2019 SLR NUG(1)                  SLR NUG(1)                SLR NUG(1)            SLR NUG(1)                  SLR NUG(1)
US-3 Solar 1                  US-3 Solar 1              US-3 Solar 1          US-3 Solar 1                US-3 Solar 1 2020 SLR (320 MW)                  SLR (320 MW)              SLR (320 MW)          SLR (320 MW)              SLR (320 MW)
CVOW                          CVOW                      CVOW                  CVOW                      CVOW US-3 Solar 2                US-3 Solar 2              US-3 Solar 2          US-3 Solar 2                US-3 Solar 2 SLR (400 MW)                  SLR (400 MW)              SLR (400 MW)          SLR (400 MW)              SLR (400 MW) 2021      Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)      Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)      Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2) Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)      Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)
CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)          CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)          CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)    CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)          CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)
Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)            Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)        Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)      Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)          Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)
PP5                          PP5                      PP5                    PP5                        PP5 CT                            CT                        CT                    CT                        CT 2022        SLR (480 MW)                  SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)          SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
YT3                          YT3                        YT3                  YT3                        YT3 CT AERO                  CT AERO              CT AERO CT                            CT                        CT                    CT                        CT 2023 SLR (480 MW)                  SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)          SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
CH5-6                      CH5-6                CH5-6 CT                            CT                        CT                    CT                        CT 2024 SLR (480 MW)                  SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)          SLR (480 MW)              SLR (400 MW)
CT AERO                  CT AERO 2X1 CC CT                            CT                        CT                                                CT 2025                                                                                        SLR (400 MW)
SLR (400 MW)                  SLR (400 MW)              SLR (400 MW)                                      SLR (480 MW)
CL1-2 CL1-2                    CL1-2 CT                            CT                        CT                    CT                        CT 2026 SLR (480 MW)                  SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)          SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
CT                            CT                        CT                    CT 2027                                                                                                                  SLR (480 MW)
SLR (480 MW)                  SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)          SLR (480 MW)
CT                        CT                    CT 2028        SLR (480 MW)                                                                                              SLR (480 MW)
SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)          SLR (480 MW)
CT                        CT                    CT                        CT 2029 SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)          SLR (480 MW)              SLR (400 MW)
CT                        CT                    CT                        CT 2030                CT SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)          SLR (480 MW)              SLR (320 MW)
CT                            CT                        CT                    CT                        CT 2031 SLR (160 MW)                  SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)          SLR (480 MW)                SLR (80 MW)
CT                            CT                        CT 2032                                                                                        SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
SLR (240 MW)                  SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW) 2033          SLR (80 MW)                  SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)          SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
Key: Belle: Bellemeade Power Station; Bremo: Bremo Power Station; CC: Combined-Cycle; CH: Chesterfield Power Station; CL: Clover Power Station; CT: Combustion Turbine (2 units); CT AERO: Aero-derivative CT (119 MW); CVOW: Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind; Greensville: Greensville County Power Station; MB: Mecklenburg Power Station; Pitt: Pittsylvania Power Station; PP: Possum Point Power Station; SLR: Generic Solar; SLR NUG: Solar Non-Utility Generator; US-3 Solar 1: US-3 Solar 1 Facility; US-3 Solar 2: US-3 Solar 2 Facility; YT: Yorktown Power Station.
Note: 1) Solar NUGs include 660 MW of NC solar NUGs and 100 MW of VA solar NUGs by 2020.
: 2) These units entered into cold reserve in April 2018.
: 3) Pittsylvania is planned to enter cold reserve in August 2018.
: 4) These units are planned to enter cold reserve in December 2018.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary Common elements of the Alternative Plans The following are common to the Alternative Plans through the Planning Period:
* Demand-Side Resources:
o    approved DSM programs reaching approximately 304 MW, 805 GWh by 2033;
* Generation under Construction:
o    Greensville County Power Station, approximately 1,585 MW of natural gas-fired CC capacity by 2019;
* Generation under Development:
o    US-3 Solar 1, approximately 142 MW (nameplate) of Virginia utility-scale solar generation by 2020; o    CVOW, approximately 12 MW (nameplate) of offshore wind as early as 2021; o    US-3 Solar 2, approximately 98 MW (nameplate) of Virginia utility-scale solar generation by 2021;
* Potential Generation:
o    eight combustion turbine (CT)7 plants totaling approximately 3,664 MW by 2033; o    solar PV generation totaling approximately 4,480 MW (nameplate) by 2033;
* NUGs:
o    660 MW (nameplate) of North Carolina solar NUGs by 2020; o    100 MW (nameplate) of Virginia solar NUGs by 2020;
* Extensions:
o    Surry Units 1 and 2, license extensions of 20 years by 2032 and 2033; o    North Anna Units 1 and 2, license extensions of 20 years by 2038 and 2040;
* Cold Reserve Units:
o    Bellemeade Power Station (267 MW) in April 2018; o    Bremo Power Station Units 3 and 4 (227 MW) in April 2018; o    Chesterfield Power Station Units 3 and 4 (261 MW) in December 2018; o    Mecklenburg Power Station Units 1 and 2 (138 MW) in April 2018; o    Pittsylvania Power Station (83 MW) in August 2018; and o    Possum Point Power Station Units 3 and 4 (316 MW) in December 2018.
* Retirements: 8 o    Bellemeade Power Station (267 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021; o    Bremo Power Station Units 3 and 4 (227 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021; o    Chesterfield Power Station Units 3 and 4 (261 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021; 7 All references regarding new CT units throughout this document refer to installations of a bank of two CT units.
8 The generating units listed should be considered as tentative for retirement only. The Companys final decisions regarding any unit retirement will be made at a future date.
11
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary o    Mecklenburg Power Station Units 1 and 2 (138 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021; o    Pittsylvania Power Station (83 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021; o    Possum Point Power Station Units 3 and 4 (316 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021; o    Possum Point Power Station Unit 5 (786 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021; and o    Yorktown Power Station Unit 3 (790 MW) to be potentially retired by 2022.
Beyond these common elements, additional resources and retirements included in the Alternative Plans are listed below:
* Potential Generation:
o    Plan A: No CO2 Tax includes one additional CT plant of approximately 458 MW; o    Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports) includes three additional CT plants of approximately 1,374 MW, two CT Aero-derivatives (Aeros) of 238 MW, and an additional 1,920 MW (nameplate) of solar by 2033 (totaling 6,960 MW (nameplate) by 2043);
o    Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) includes three additional CT plants of approximately 1,374 MW, two CT Aeros of approximately 238 MW, and an additional 1,920 MW (nameplate) of solar by 2033 (totaling 6,960 MW (nameplate) by 2043);
o    Plan D: RGGI (limited imports) includes one 2x1 CC unit of approximately 1,062 MW, one additional CT plant of approximately 458 MW, one CT Aero of approxmately 119 MW, and an additional 1,920 MW (nameplate) of solar by 2033 (totaling 6,960 MW (nameplate) by 2043); and o    Plan E: Federal CO2 Program includes an additional 1,280 MW (nameplate) of solar by 2033 (totaling 6,960 MW (nameplate) by 2043).
* Retirements:
o    Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports), Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) and Plan D: RGGI (limited imports) include the potential retirements of Chesterfield Units 5 (336 MW) and 6 (670 MW) by 2023, and Clover Units 1 (220 MW)9 and 2 (219 MW)9 by 2025.
Figure 1.4.2 illustrates the renewable resources included in the Alternative Plans over the Study Period (2019 to 2043).
9 The MW reflect the Companys 50% ownership in Clover.
12
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary Figure 1.4.2 - Renewable Resources in the Alternative Plans through the Study Period Plan B:            Plan C:              Plan D:
Nameplate      Plan A:                                                                        Plan E:
Virginia RGGI          RGGI                RGGI MW        No CO2 Tax                                                                Federal CO2 Program (unlimited imports) (unlimited imports)  (limited imports)
Existing Resources 1    533            x                  x                  x                  x                    x VCHEC Biomass          61              x                  x                  x                  x                    x Solar NUGs 2            760            x                  x                  x                  x                    x CVOW                    12              x                  x                  x                  x                    x US-3 Solar 1            142            x                  x                  x                  x                    x US-3 Solar 2            98              x                  x                  x                  x                    x Solar PV              Varies        4,960              6,960              6,960              6,960                6,960 Note: 1) Existing Resources include hydro-electric, biomass (excluding VCHEC), and solar.
: 2) Solar NUGs include forecasted VA and NC solar NUGs through 2020.
To meet the projected demand of electric customers and annual reserve requirements throughout the Planning Period, the Company has identified additional resources utilizing a balanced mix of supply- and demand-side resources and market purchases to fill the capacity gap shown in Figure 1.3.1. The capacity and energy associated with all Alternative Plans are illustrated in Appendix 1A.
The 2018 Plan balances the Companys commitment to operate in an environmentally-responsible manner with its obligation to provide reliable and reasonably-priced electric service. The Company has established a strong track record of environmental protection and stewardship and has spent more than $1.8 billion since 1998 to make environmental improvements to its generation fleet.
These improvements have already reduced emissions rates from generating units serving Virginia by 88% for nitrogen oxide (NOx), 97% for mercury (Hg), and 98% for sulfur dioxide (SO2) from 2000 levels through 2017.
Since numerous federal regulations are effective, anticipated or under EPA review (as further shown in Figure 3.1.3.3), the Company continuously evaluates various alternatives with respect to its existing units. Coal-fired and oil-fired units that have limited environmental controls are considered at-risk units. Environmental compliance offers three options for such units: (i) retrofit with additional environmental control reduction equipment, (ii) repower (including co-fire), or (iii) retire.
The large generators listed as potential retirements in each of the Alternative Plans were evaluated for repowering and co-firing. The current results of this analysis are discussed in Section 6.9.
While the Planning Period is a 15-year outlook, the Company is mindful of the scheduled license expirations of Company-owned nuclear units: Surry Unit 1 (838 MW) and Surry Unit 2 (838 MW) in 2032 and 2033, respectively, and North Anna Unit 1 (838 MW) and North Anna Unit 2 (834 MW) in 2038 and 2040, respectively. The Company believes it will be able to obtain license extensions on all four nuclear units at a reasonable cost; therefore, it has included the extensions in all Alternative Plans.
While not definitively choosing one plan or a combination of plans beyond the STAP, the Company remains committed to pursue the development of resources that meets the needs of customers while supporting the fuel diversity needed to minimize risks associated with changing market conditions, industry regulations, and customer preferences.
1.5 COST AND RATE IMPACT OF THE ALTERNATIVE PLANS All of the Alternative Plans envisioning compliance with state (Plans B, C, and D) or federal (Plan E) carbon regulations would impose higher costs on customers, but the costs and rate impacts of the possible scenarios vary. As discussed in Section 6.5, the NPV through 2043 of costs associated with the four plans including carbon regulation range from $1.54 billion to $4.04 billion greater than 13
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 1 - Executive Summary the NPV of the baseline plan (Plan A). Specifically, the incremental NPVs associated with each of the carbon-regulating Alternative Plans are $1.54 billion (Plan B); $3.71 billion (Plan C); $4.04 billion (Plan D); and $3.09 billion (Plan E).
As discussed in Section 6.6, the rate impact analysis of the Alternative Plans shows that carbon regulation compliance will lead to higher bills for the Companys customers. By 2030, implementation of Plans B, C, D, or E would result in typical monthly residential bills (for 1,000 kilowatt hours (kWh) of usage) ranging from 2.2% (Plan E) to 5.6% (Plan D) higher than under the baseline plan (Plan A). Expressed in 2018 dollars, the additional monthly cost of electricity by 2030 for a typical residential customer would be $3.59 under Plan B, $5.01 under Plan C, $5.81 under Plan D, and $2.23 under Plan E.
14
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan CHAPTER 2 - LOAD FORECAST 2.1 FORECAST METHODS The Company uses two econometric models with an end-use orientation to forecast sales, energy, and peak demand. The first is a customer class level sales model (Sales Model) and the second is a system level hourly load model (Peak and Energy Model). The models used to produce the Companys load forecast have been developed, enhanced, and re-estimated annually for over 20 years. Both models are estimated over a rolling 30-year historical period as each long-term forecast is developed. The historical period used to develop the current 2018 Plan Load Forecast spanned the period from October 1988 through September 2017.
The Sales Model incorporates separate monthly sales equations for the residential, commercial, industrial, public authority, street and traffic lighting, and wholesale customer classes, as well as other load serving entities (LSEs) in the Dominion Energy Zone (DOM Zone), all of which are in the PJM RTO. The monthly sales equations are specified in a manner that produces estimates of heating load, cooling load, and non-weather sensitive load. In addition to developing a sales forecast, the primary role of the Sales Model is to provide estimates of historical and projected weather sensitive appliance stocks and non-weather sensitive base demand for use as exogenous variables in the Peak and Energy Model.
Variables included in each of the class monthly sales equations are as follows:
* Residential sales equation: Income, electric prices, unemployment rate, number of customers, appliance saturations, appliance efficiencies, building permits, weather, billing days, and calendar month variables to capture seasonal impacts.
* Commercial sales equation: Virginia gross state product (GSP), electric prices, natural gas prices, number of customers, weather, billing days, and calendar month variables to capture seasonal impacts.
* Industrial sales equation: Employment in manufacturing, electric prices, weather, billing days, and calendar month variables to capture seasonal impacts.
* Public authorities sales equation: Employment for public authorities, number of customers, weather, billing days, and calendar month variables to capture seasonal impacts.
* Street and traffic lighting sales equation: Number of residential customers and calendar month variables to capture seasonal impacts.
* Wholesale customers and other LSEs sales equations: Residential sales equation, heating and air-conditioning appliance stocks, number of days in the month, weather, and calendar month variables to capture seasonal and other effects.
The residential sales equation also relies on an algorithm that dynamically adjusts forecasted appliance saturation and usage based on historical trends. These historical trends are determined from appliance data collected through surveys of the Companys residential customers. Figure 2.1.1 shows historical and forecasted saturation and usage data for residential heat pumps.
15
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 2 - Load Forecast Figure 2.1.1 - Residential Heat Pump (Cooling) Saturation and Usage 2,990                                                                                        100%
98%
2,490 96%
94%
1,990 Saturation %
92%
kWh  1,490                                                                                        90%
88%
990 86%
Heat Pump Average Usage            84%
490 Heat Pump Saturation              82%
                          -10                                                                                        80%
The most recent residential customer appliance survey was completed in 2016. One noteworthy item from the results of that survey is with respect to residential lighting. Between the time of the 2013 appliance survey and the 2016 appliance survey, a significant change was observed in the penetration of energy-efficient light emitting diode (LED) lighting among the Companys residential customers. In order to account for this new lighting trend, the Company modified its residential sales modeling in a manner that will dynamically reduce forecasts of residential lighting load as LED lighting penetration increases. The residential lighting saturation and usage utilized in the load forecast for incandescent, compact florescent light (CFL), and LED lighting for the 2018 Plan is shown in Figures 2.1.2 and 2.1.3, respectively. This saturation and usage data was based on an analysis of appliance survey results.
Figure 2.1.2 - Residential Lighting Saturation 100%
90%
80%
70%
Saturation %
60%
50%
Incandescent 40%
CFL 30%
20%                                                                                              LED 10%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 16
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 2 - Load Forecast Figure 2.1.3 - Residential Lighting Usage 2,500 Annual Average Years Growth Rate 2015 - 2020        -5.6%
2,000                                                                            2020 - 2025        -5.0%
1,663                                                          2025 - 2030        -4.9%
2015 - 2030      -5.14%
1,500 1,304 kWh/year 1,009 1,000 787 500 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 The Companys second model, the Peak and Energy Model, is comprised of 24 separate equations, one for each hour of the day, with adjusted DOM Zone loads as the dependent variable. Prior to estimating the Peak and Energy Model equations, historical hourly loads are adjusted by adding back historical distributed solar generation and load management reductions.
Each Peak and Energy Model equation includes a non-weather sensitive base demand variable, derived from the estimated aggregate non-weather sensitive base demand components from the Sales Model as well as a detailed specification of weather variables. The weather variables include interactions between both current and lagged values of temperature, humidity, wind speed, sky cover, and precipitation for five weather stations in conjunction with residential heating and cooling appliance stocks. The Peak and Energy Model also employs indicator variables to capture monthly, day of week, time of day, holiday, and other seasonal effects, as well as unusual widespread outage producing events such as hurricanes.
The forecast of expected DOM Zone monthly and seasonal peaks and energy output is produced by simulating hourly demands from the estimated Peak and Energy Model over actual hourly weather from each of the past 30 years under projected economic conditions. The final forecasted zonal peak and energy values include subsequent adjustments for projected block loads from incremental new data centers, or other significant load additions not reflected in the hourly regression equations.
The final monthly peak and energy forecast for the DOM LSE is based on a regression of historical DOM LSE loads onto historical DOM Zone loads. The estimated coefficients are applied to the projected zonal loads resulting in a load forecast for the DOM LSE that is then adjusted for known firm contractual obligations in the forecast period.
2.2  HISTORY & FORECAST BY CUSTOMER CLASS & ASSUMPTIONS The DOM Zone is typically a summer peaking system; however, during the winter periods of 2013/2014, 2014/2015, and 2017/2018, significant DOM Zone peaks were set at 19,978 MW, 21,867 MW, and 21,350 MW, respectively. The historical DOM Zone summer peak growth rate has averaged about 1.2% annually over the 2002 to 2017 period. The annual average energy growth rate over the same period is approximately 0.8%. Historical DOM Zone peak load and annual energy output along with a 15-year forecast are shown in Figures 2.2.1 and 2.2.2. Figure 2.2.1 also reflects the actual winter peak demand. DOM LSE peak and energy requirements are both estimated to grow annually at approximately 1.4% throughout the Planning Period. Additionally, a 17
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 2 - Load Forecast 10-year history and 15-year forecast of sales and customer count at the system level, as well as a breakdown at Virginia and North Carolina levels, are provided in Appendices 2A to 2F. Appendix 2G provides a summary of the summer and winter peaks used in the development of this 2018 Plan.
Finally, the three-year historical load and 15-year projected load for wholesale customers are provided in Appendix 3L.
Figure 2.2.1 - DOM Zone Peak Load 26,000 24,000                HISTORY      FORECAST 22,000 PEAK DEMAND (MW) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 SUMMER                      WINTER 12,000        PEAK ACTUAL                PEAK ACTUAL SUMMER                      WINTER PEAK FORECAST              PEAK FORECAST 10,000    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Figure 2.2.2 - DOM Zone Annual Energy 130,000 120,000                HISTORY        FORECAST 110,000 ANNUAL ENERGY (GWh) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Figure 2.2.3 summarizes the final forecast of energy sales and peak load over the next 15 years.
The Companys wholesale and retail customer energy sales are estimated to grow at annual rates of approximately 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, over the Planning Period. Projected growth rates can diverge for a number of reasons, including weather and economic conditions.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 2 - Load Forecast Figure 2.2.3 - Summary of the Energy Sales & Peak Load Forecast Compound Annual Growth 2018      2033 Rate (%)
2018 - 2033 DOMINION ENERGY LSE TOTAL ENERGY SALES (GWh)                83,439    104,270          1.5%
Retail                                81,838    102,367          1.5%
Residential                        30,245    35,649          1.1%
Commercial                        32,166    45,967          2.4%
Industrial                          8,700      8,269        -0.3%
Public Authorities                10,443    12,175          1.0%
Street and Traffic Lighting          284        307        0.5%
Wholesale (Resale)                      1,601      1,903          1.2%
SEASONAL PEAK (MW)
Summer                            17,417    21,499          1.4%
Winter                            16,019    20,260          1.6%
ENERGY OUTPUT (GWh)*                    88,148    109,248          1.4%
DOMINION ENERGY ZONE SEASONAL PEAK (MW)
Summer                            19,938    24,610          1.4%
Winter                            18,666    23,608          1.6%
ENERGY OUTPUT (GWh)                    100,809    124,945          1.4%
Notes: All sales and peak load have not been reduced for the impact of DSM.
                          *The DOM LSE energy output compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is lower than the DOM LSE total energy sales due to the general absence of distribution losses associated with data centers.
Figures 2.2.4 and 2.2.5 provide comparisons of the DOM Zone summer peak load and energy forecasts included in the 2017 Plan and the 2018 Plan, as well as PJMs load forecast for the DOM Zone from its 2017 and 2018 Load Forecast Reports. 10 These figures also include historical peak load and energy.
10 See http://www.pjm.com/~/media/library/reports-notices/load-forecast/2017-load-forecast-report.ashx and http://www.pjm.com/~/media/library/reports-notices/load-forecast/2018-load-report.ashx.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 2 - Load Forecast Figure 2.2.4 - DOM Zone Peak Load Comparison 26,000 24,000                                                                                            HISTORY                                                  FORECAST 22,000 PEAK DEMAND (MW) 20,000 18,000 16,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2018 Plan 2017 Plan 14,000 2018 PJM 12,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2017 PJM History 10,000 1999    2000    2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019    2020    2021    2022    2023    2024    2025    2026    2027    2028    2029    2030    2031    2032    2032    2033 Figure 2.2.5 - DOM Zone Annual Energy Comparison 130,000 120,000                                                                                                        HISTORY                                                FORECAST 110,000 ANNUAL ENERGY (GWh) 100,000 90,000 80,000 2018 Plan 70,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2017 Plan 2018 PJM 60,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2017 PJM History 50,000 1999    2000    2001    2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018    2019    2020    2021    2022    2023    2024    2025    2026    2027    2028    2029    2030    2031    2032    2032    2033 The economic and demographic assumptions that were used in the Companys load forecast models were supplied by Moodys Analytics, prepared in October 2017, and are included as Appendix 2K.
Figure 2.2.6 summarizes the economic variables used to develop the sales and peak load forecasts used in this 2018 Plan.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 2 - Load Forecast Figure 2.2.6 - Major Assumptions for the Sales and Peak and Energy Models Compound Annual 2018      2033        Growth Rate (%)
2018 - 2033 DEMOGRAPHIC:
Customers (000)
Residential                            2,329      2,708            1.01%
Commercial                                244        277            0.85%
Population (000)                                8,515      9,419            0.68%
ECONOMIC:
Employment (000)
State & Local Government                  540        615            0.87%
Manufacturing                            233        195            -1.18%
Government 1                              719        798            0.70%
Income ($)
Per Capita Real Disposable            42,674    54,219              1.61%
Price Index Consumer Price (1982-84=100)              250        353            2.32%
VA Gross State Product (GSP)                      461        620            1.99%
Note: (1) Government = State (Commonwealth of Virginia) + Local (County + Municipalities) + Federal Employment (Non-Military)
The forecast for the Virginia economy is a key driver in the Companys energy sales and load forecasts. Like most states, the Virginia economy was adversely impacted by the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 and the subsequent slow rate of recovery. However, more recently, Virginias economy was also negatively impacted by federal government budget cuts triggered by the mandated sequestration that went into effect in 2013 and continued through 2017. The sequestration adversely affected Virginia due to the Commonwealths dependency on federal government spending, particularly in the area of defense. In spite of these economic head winds, the Virginia economy continued to grow at an annual average real GSP growth rate of approximately 1.0% during 2009 to 2016. As of October 2017, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Virginia approached 3.6%, which is approximately 0.5% below the national unemployment rate.
Based on the input data provided by Moodys Analytics, the Virginia economy is expected to rebound further within the Planning Period. This is reflected in the projection of the Virginia GSP. Moodys Analytics projection has a CAGR of 1.99%. In addition, Virginia per capita disposable income is projected to increase at a CAGR of 1.61%.
There are a number of indications supporting anticipated growth in the Virginia economy within the Planning Period. For example, given Virginias large military footprint, approval increased federal defense spending should benefit the Virginia economy. The Commonwealth has also been aggressive in its economic development efforts by recruiting businesses that create jobs to add to the Virginia economy. Moreover, Virginia continues to have an attractive quality of life, strong K-12 and higher education systems, and as a result continues to be an attractive destination for young professionals, families, and retirees.
Residential housing starts and associated new homes are major contributors to electric sales growth in the Companys service territory. The sector saw significant year-over-year declines in the construction of new homes from 2006 through 2010, but began showing increased growth beginning 21
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 2 - Load Forecast in 2012. According to Moodys Analytics, Virginia is expected to show significant improvement in housing starts in 2018, which is reflected as new customers in the load forecast.
Another driver of energy sales in the Companys service territory is new and existing data centers. The Company has seen significant interest in data centers locating in Virginia because of its proximity to fiber optic networks as well as low-cost, reliable power sources.
2.3 COMPARISON WITH PJMS 2018 PEAK DEMAND FORECAST FOR THE DOM ZONE For the second year running, PJMs DOM Zone 2018 peak demand forecast is lower than the Companys internal forecast for the DOM Zone. In Section 2.3 of the 2017 Plan, the Company detailed the major differences between the methods used by PJM in its load forecasting process and those used by the Company. This presentation also reflected how these methodological differences are causing the differences in the resulting forecasts. These differences still exist between PJM and the Company, which again have resulted in differing peak demand and energy forecasts.
In addition to the methodological differences addressed in the 2017 Plan, there are two new points that should be considered when comparing PJMs and the Companys load forecasts for the DOM Zone. First, PJMs 2018 15-year peak demand CAGR for the DOM Zone is approximately 0.8%
annually. For energy, PJM predicts a 15-year CAGR of 0.9% for the DOM Zone. These figures represent a 100% and 80% increase, respectively, relative to PJMs 15-year peak demand and energy CAGR for the DOM Zone that was published in PJMs 2017 Load Forecast Report.
According to PJMs Load Analysis Subcommittee, 11 the reasons for this increase were: (i) an increase in PJMs data center forecast; (ii) an adjustment to PJMs behind-the-meter generation (BTMG) solar forecast; and (iii) adjustment to the equipment index used by PJM in its 2018 DOM Zone forecast. The equipment index is used by PJM to capture end use appliance saturation and efficiency gains used in its forecasting process. According to PJM, equipment index adjustments were made as a result of the diminishing likelihood of the CPP.
The second point to be considered in comparing load forecasts is with respect to PJMs forecasted 2018 winter peak demand for the DOM Zone. PJM issued its 2018 Load Forecast Report on December 28, 2017. During the first week of January 2018, the eastern United States, including Virginia, experienced a prolonged period of extreme cold winter weather. As specified in PJMs 2018 Load Forecast Report, the 90/10 forecasted winter peak demand for the DOM Zone is 19,512 MW. To be clear, the 90/10 forecast represents the 90th percentile forecasted peak demand level that, in theory, should only be realized or exceeded once every nine years on average. During the first week of January 2018, the actual peak demand for the DOM Zone exceeded PJMs 90/10 winter forecast peak demand level for the DOM Zone on five different occasions (see Figure 2.3.1) by an average of approximately 1,400 MW. By comparison, during that same week, the actual winter peak demand exceeded the Companys 90/10 winter peak demand forecast on two occasions by an average of approximately 40 MW. The Company understands that PJM has recognized this issue in its load forecasting and is in the process of revising their load forecasting methods. 12 11 See http://www.pjm.com/-/media/committees-groups/subcommittees/las/20170717/20170717-item-04-end-use-variable-revisions.ashx.
12 See http://www.pjm.com/-/media/committees-groups/subcommittees/las/20180314/20180314-item-04-potential-load-forecast enhancements.ashx.
22
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 2 - Load Forecast Figure 2.3.1 - January 2018 Forecasted Peak and Metered Peaks Note: Add-Backs include distributed solar generation and load management.
To address the differences between PJMs peak demand and energy forecast for the DOM Zone relative to the Companys forecast, the Company has included in this 2018 Plan a sensitivity case that compares the change in the generation expansion plans (and cost) when using PJMs load forecast versus the Companys. The results and discussion regarding this comparative analysis is included in Section 6.9.
2.4 SUMMER & WINTER PEAK DEMAND & ANNUAL ENERGY The 3-year actual and 15-year forecast of summer and winter peak, annual energy, DSM peak and energy, and system capacity are shown in Appendix 2I. Additionally, Appendix 2J provides the reserve margins for a 3-year actual and 15-year forecast.
2.5 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RATES As of March 1, 2018, the Company has six customer service locations in Virginia receiving service under economic development rates. The total load associated with these rates is approximately 79 MW. As of March 1, 2018, the Company has no customers in North Carolina receiving service under economic development rates.
23
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan CHAPTER 3 - EXISTING AND PROPOSED RESOURCES 3.1 SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCES 3.1.1        EXISTING GENERATION The Companys existing generating resources are located at multiple sites distributed throughout its service territory, as shown in Figure 3.1.1.1. This diverse fleet of 100 generation units includes 4 nuclear, 12 coal, 4 natural gas-steam, 10 CCs, 41 CTs, 4 biomass, 2 heavy oil, 6 pumped storage, 14 hydro, and 3 solar with a total summer capacity of approximately 18,265 MW.13 The Companys continued operational goal is to manage this fleet in a manner that provides reliable, cost-effective service under varying conditions.
Figure 3.1.1.1 - Virginia Electric and Power Company Generation Resources The largest proportion of the Companys generation resources has operated for 40 to 50 years, reflecting the major generation building program that met the needs of rapid population growth in the 1960s and 1970s, followed closely by a large number of units that have operated for less than 10 years, and units that have operated for 30 to 40 years. Figure 3.1.1.2 shows the demographics of the entire existing generation fleet.
13 All references to MW in Chapter 3 refer to summer nameplate capacity unless otherwise noted. Winter nameplate capacities for Company-owned units are listed in Appendix 3A.
24
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources Figure 3.1.1.2 - Generation Fleet Demographics 6,000 Renewable Oil 5,000 Pumped Storage TOTAL CAPACITY (MW)
Natural Gas 4,000 Nuclear Coal 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
                                                  <10            10-20      20-30        30-40        40-50          >50 UNIT AGE Note: Renewable resources constitute biomass, wind, solar, and hydro units.
Figure 3.1.1.3 illustrates that the Companys existing generation fleet is comprised of a mix of generation resources with varying operating characteristics and fueling requirements. The Company also has contracted 905 MW of fossil-burning and renewable NUGs, which provide firm capacity as well as associated energy and ancillary services to meet the Companys load requirements.
Appendix 3B lists all of the NUGs in the 2018 Plan. The Companys planning process strives to maintain a diverse portfolio of capacity and energy resources to meet its customers needs.
25
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources Figure 3.1.1.3 - 2018 Capacity Resource Mix by Unit Type Net Summer Capacity1          Percentage Generation Resource Type (MW)                    (%)
Coal                                                  3,638                  19.5%
Nuclear                                              3,349                  18.0%
Natural Gas                                          7,119                  38.3%
Pumped Storage                                        1,808                  9.7%
Oil                                                  1,822                  9.8%
Renewable                                              529                    2.8%
NUG - Coal                                            218                    1.2%
NUG - Natural Gas Turbine                              0                    0.0%
NUG - Solar                                            128                    0.7%
NUG Contracted                                          346                    1.9%
Company Owned                                        18,265                  98.1%
Company Owned and NUG Contracted                      18,611                100.0%
Purchases                                                0                    0.0%
Total                                                18,611                100.0%
Note: 1) Represents firm capacity towards reserve margin.
Due to differences in the operating and fuel costs of various types of units and in PJM system conditions, the Companys energy mix is not equivalent to its capacity mix. The Companys generation fleet is economically dispatched by PJM within its larger footprint, ensuring that customers in the Companys service territories receive the benefit of all resources in the PJM power pool regardless of whether the source of electricity is Company-owned, contracted, or third-party units. PJM dispatches resources within the DOM Zone from the lowest cost units to the highest cost units, while maintaining its mandated reliability standards. Figures 3.1.1.4 and 3.1.1.5 provide the Companys 2017 actual capacity and energy mix.
26
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources Figure 3.1.1.4 - 2017 Actual Capacity Mix NUGs Contracted 1%      Purchases 0%
Renewable 3%                              Coal 21%                  Nuclear 17%
Pumped Storage 9%
Oil                                Natural Gas 11%                                      38%
Figure 3.1.1.5 - 2017 Actual Energy Mix Coal 18%
Nuclear 33%
Purchased Power 10%
NUGs Contracted 5%
Natural Gas Renewable                                    32%
2%    Oil 0%
Note: Pumped storage is not shown because it is net negative to the Companys energy mix.
Appendices 3A, 3C, 3D, and 3E provide basic unit specifications and operating characteristics of the Companys supply-side resources, both owned and contracted. Appendix 3F provides a summary of the existing capacity by fuel class and NUGs. Appendices 3G and 3H provide energy generation by type and by the system output mix. Appendix 3B provides a listing of other generation units including NUGs, BTMG, and customer-owned generation units.
3.1.2    EXISTING RENEWABLE RESOURCES The Company currently owns and operates 533 MW of renewable resources, including approximately 8 MW (nameplate) of the solar generation facilities through the Solar Partnership Program and approximately 153 MW of biomass generating facilities, not counting Pittsylvania, which is currently planned to enter cold reserve in August. The Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center (VCHEC) (610 MW) is expected to consume renewable biomass fuel of up to 7.5% (46 MW) in 2018 and gradually increase that level to 10% (61 MW) by 2023. The Company also owns and operates three hydro facilities: Gaston Hydro Station (220 MW), Roanoke Rapids Hydro Station (95 27
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources MW), and North Anna Hydro Station (1 MW). Additionally, the Company owns and operates three solar units totaling 56 MW (nameplate) in Virginia.
Renewable Energy Rates and Programs The Company has implemented various rates and programs to increase the availability of renewable options, as summarized in Figure 3.1.2.1.
Figure 3.1.2.1 - Renewable Rates & Programs Supplier                                Customer Group                                  Size Limitations Renewable Programs        Company- Participant-  Third-Party                Small        Large Residential                          Industrial        Individual              Aggregate Owned    Owned          Owned                Commercial    Commercial Solar Partnership Program    X          -            -          -          X            X          X            500 kW - 2 MW              30 MW Res: 20 kW Solar Purchase Program      -          X            -          X          X            -          -                                        3 MW Non-Res: 50 kW Green Power Program          -          -            X          X          X            X          X                None                    None Third-Party PPA Pilot        -          -            X          X          X            X          X            1 kW - 1 MW                50 MW Res: 20 kW        1% of Adjusted Peak Net Metering                -          X            -          X          X            X          X Non-Res: 1 MW          Load for Prior Year Within Net Agricultural Net Metering    -          X            -          -          X            X          X              500 kW Metering Cap 30,000 MWh Annually of Schedule RF                  X          -            X          -          -            X          X                                          None Incremental Load Note: Eligibility and participation subject to individual program parameters.
Solar Partnership Program The Solar Partnership Program is a demonstration program in which the Company is authorized to construct and operate up to 30 MW (direct current or DC) of Company-owned solar distributed generation (DG) facilities installed by the end of 2017 on leased commercial and industrial customer property and in community settings. This demonstration program allows the Company to study the benefits and impacts of solar DG on targeted distribution circuits. Current installed capacity of the program is 7.7 MW (nameplate). The Company does not currently have plans for additional installations under this program. More information can be found on the SCC website under Case No. PUE-2011-00117 and on the Companys website:
https://www.dominionenergy.com/large-business/renewable-energy-programs/solar-partnership program.
Solar Purchase Program The Solar Purchase Program facilitates customer-owned solar DG as an alternative to net metering.
Under this program, the Company purchases energy output, including all environmental attributes and associated renewable energy certificates (RECs), from participants at a premium rate under Rate Schedule SP, a voluntary experimental rate, for a period of five years. The Companys Green Power Program directly supports the Solar Purchase Program through the purchase and retirement of its produced solar RECs. As of December 31, 2017, there were approximately 150 participants in the Solar Purchase Program with an installed capacity of 1.8 MW. More information can be found on the SCC website under Case No. PUE-2012-00064 and on the Companys website:
https://www.dominionenergy.com/home-and-small-business/ways-to-save/renewable-energy programs/solar-purchase-program.
Green Power Program The Companys Green Power Program allows customers to promote renewable energy by purchasing RECs through the Company in discrete blocks for a portion or up to 100% of their usage.
The Company purchases and retires RECs on behalf of participants. There are approximately 24,000 customers participating in this program. More information can be found on the SCC website 28
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources under Case No. PUE-2008-00044 and on the Companys website:
https://www.dominionenergy.com/home-and-small-business/ways-to-save/renewable-energy programs/dominion-green-power.
Renewable Energy (Third-Party PPA) Pilot The Renewable Energy Pilot Program allows qualified customers to enter into a power purchase agreement (PPA) with a third-party renewable energy supplier. The energy supplied must come from a wind or solar generator located on the customers premise. Eight customers are participating with a total installed capacity of approximately 1.2 MW. More information can be found on the SCC website under Case No. PUE-2013-00045 and on the Companys website:
https://www.dominionenergy.com/large-business/renewable-energy-programs/renewable-energy pilot-program.
Net Metering Net metering allows for eligible customer generators producing renewable generation to offset their own electricity usage consistent with Va. Code &sect; 56-594 and SCC regulations governing net metering in the Virginia Administrative Code (20 VAC 5-315-10 et seq.), as well as NCGS
&sect; 62-133.8(i)(6) and NCUC decisions issued in Docket No. E-100, Sub 83.14 There are approximately 2,170 net metering customer-generators with a total installed capacity of approximately 17.4 MW. More information can be found on the Companys website:
https://www.dominionenergy.com/home-and-small-business/ways-to-save/renewable-energy programs/net-metering.
Agricultural Net Metering Agricultural net metering allows agricultural customers to net meter across multiple accounts on contiguous property. More information can be found on the SCC website under Case No.
PUE-2014-00003 and on the Companys website: https://www.dominionenergy.com/home-and small-business/ways-to-save/renewable-energy-programs/agricultural-net-metering.
Schedule RF Schedule RF is an experimental and voluntary companion tariff that enables eligible customers to support the development of new renewable energy generation facilities by enhancing the cost effectiveness of such facilities. More information can be found on the SCC website under Case No.
PUR-2017-00137.
3.1.3      CHANGES TO EXISTING GENERATION The Company is fully committed to meeting its customers energy needs in a manner consistent with a clean environment, and supports the establishment of a comprehensive national energy and environmental policy that balances the countrys needs for reliable and affordable energy with reasonable minimization of environmental impacts. Cognizant of the effective and anticipated EPA regulations concerning air, water, and solid waste constituents, along with any Virginia and North Carolina state level regulations (see Figure 3.1.3.3), the Company continuously evaluates various options with respect to its existing fleet.
As a result, the Company has a balanced portfolio of generating units, including non-emitting nuclear, highly-efficient and clean-burning natural gas, solar, and hydro. The majority of the Companys coal-fired units are equipped with SO2 and NOx controls. The Companys coal-fired units at Chesterfield, Mt. Storm, Clover, Mecklenburg, and VCHEC have flue gas desulfurization environmental controls for SO2 emissions. The Companys coal-fired generation at Chesterfield 14 North Carolina House Bill 589, signed into law on July 27, 2017, enacted NCGS &sect; 62-126.4, which requires the Company and other utilities in North Carolina to file revised net metering rates for NCUC approval, but grandfathers existing net metering customers until 2027. No NCUC proceeding has yet been established to implement this directive.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources (Units 4, 5, and 6), Mt. Storm, Clover, and VCHEC have selective catalytic reduction (SCR) or selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR) technology to control NOx emissions. The Companys biomass units at Pittsylvania, Altavista, Hopewell, and Southampton operate SNCRs to reduce NOx.
In addition, the Companys NGCC units at Bellemeade, Bear Garden, Gordonsville, Possum Point, Warren County, and Brunswick have SCRs. The remaining small coal-fired units are without sufficient emission controls to comply with anticipated regulatory requirements and are considered at risk units for purposes of this analysis.
Uprates and Derates Efficiency, generation output, and environmental characteristics of plants are reviewed as part of the Companys normal course of business. Many of the uprates and derates occur during routine maintenance cycles or are associated with standard refurbishment. However, several plant ratings have been and will continue to be adjusted in accordance with PJM market rules and environmental regulations.
Bear Garden Power Station is a 2x1 CC that was completed in the summer of 2011. A turbine uprate was completed in May 2017, which increased the summer capacity to 622 MW, thereby adding 26 MW of additional highly-efficient and lower-emitting natural gas generation.
The Company continues to evaluate opportunities for existing unit uprates as a cost-effective means of increasing generating capacity and improving system reliability. Appendix 3I provides a list of historical and planned uprates and derates to the Companys existing generation fleet.
Environmental Performance From 2000 through 2017, the Company has reduced the carbon intensity of its power generation fleet serving Virginia jurisdictional customers by 35% and its carbon emissions in tons by 26%, as shown in Figure 3.1.3.1. The carbon emission rate to meet the needs of customers, accounting for purchased power and non-utility generators, has also been reduced by 35% since 2000, as shown in Figure 3.1.3.2. The Company has reduced emissions through retiring certain at-risk units; building additional efficient and lower-emitting natural gas-fired power generating sources and carbon-free renewable energy sources, such as solar; and maintaining its existing fleet of non-emitting nuclear generation.
Figure 3.1.3.1 - Virginia Electric and Power Company CO2 Reductions 45                                                                      1,300 1,200 40 CO2 tons (millions) 1,100 35                                                                      1,000 30                                                                      900 800 25 700 20                                                                      600
                                -26% Change in Tons    -35% Change in Emission Rate (lbs CO2/net MWh) 30
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources Figure 3.1.3.2 - Customer Impact CO2 Reductions 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 lbs/MWh 1,100 1,000 900 800 700
                                    -35% Customer Impact CO2 Intensity (lbs/MWh)
EPA Regulations There are a significant number of final, proposed, and anticipated EPA regulations that will affect certain units in the Companys current fleet of generation resources. Figure 3.1.3.3 shows regulations designed to regulate air, solid waste, water, and wildlife.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources Figure 3.1.3.3 - Environmental Regulations Compliance Constituent  Key Regulation                            Final Rule                                                          Notes Date Yorktown 1-2 ceased operation in April 2017. The DOE issued 90-day emergency Hg/HAPS Mercury & Air Toxics Standards (MATS)        12/16/2011    4/16/2017      order allowing operation when called upon by PJM in June 2017, September 2017, December 2017, and March 2018; PJM to seek rolling renewals as needed.
SO2 allowances decreased by 50% beginning in 2017. Retired units retain CSAPR CSAPR                                        2011      2015 - 2017 SO2                                                                              allowances for four years. System is expected to have sufficient SO2 allowances.
SO2 NAAQS                                  6/2/2010        2018 2008 Ozone Standard (75 ppb)                5/2012        2021      The Company is evaluating compliance options including SNCR and unit retirement.
Expect compliance strategy for 2008 ozone NAAQS to meet requirements for 2015 2015 Ozone Standard (70 ppb)              10/1/2015        2021 ozone NAAQS.
NOx Final revisions to CSAPR reduced ozone season NOx allowances reduced by CSAPR                                        2011      2015 - 2017 approximately 22% beginning in 2017. Retired units retail CSAPR allowances for four years. System is expected to have sufficient annual NOx allowances.
AIR Retro to EGU NSPS (New)                              10/2015                                                  Rule under EPA review.
1/8/2014 EGU NSPS (Modified and Reconstructed)      10/2015      10/23/2015                                  Rule under EPA review.
Rule sets interim targets (2022-2024; 2025-2027; 2028-2029) in addition to 2030 targets. Rule also sets "equivalent" statewide rate-based and mass-based interim Clean Power Plan (CPP)                      10/2015      Uncertain and 2030 targets. Rule currently stayed by Supreme Court. The EPA has proposed CO2                                                                                                              repeal of the rule.
The DEQ under directive (ED-11) to propose by 12/31/17 a "trading ready" carbon 2020 with reduction program to merge with exisitng multi-state carbon program. State issued Virginia Carbon Regulations or RGGI          2018      glidepath to draft proposal that links with RGGI program and includes RGGI's proposed 30%
2030 reduction from 2020 levels by 2030 and other allowance pool reduction mechanisms.
Federal CO2 Program (Alternative to CPP)  Uncertain        2026 Virginia has adopted the 2015 EPA coal combustion residuals rule. In March 2018, the EPA proposed amendments to the 2015 coal combustion residuals rule which WASTE remains in effect and unchanged until the proposed revisions become final. If the EPA ASH      Coal Combustion Residuals                  4/17/2015        2023      2018 revisions become final, the 2018 coal combustion residuals rule will apply to Mt.
Storm; revisions will only apply in Virginia if state adopts revised rules. Compliance plans are being developed for 2015 coal combustion residuals. In addition, Virginia legislation requires evaluation of recycling options.
Rule does not apply to Mt. Storm under the assumption that the plants man-made Water                                                                        lake does not qualify as a water of the U.S. 316(b) studies will be due with discharge WATER 316(b) Impingement & Entrainment          5/19/2014    2016 - 2027 316b                                                                                permit applications beginning in mid-2018. Installation of 316(b) technology requirements will be based on compliance schedules put into discharge permits.
Water                                                                            Rule applies to coal units at 11 facilities. Rule does not apply to simple-cycle CTs or Effluent Limitation Guidelines            9/30/2015 2021 - 2022 ELG                                                                                                                  biomass units.
Atlantic Sturgeon Endangered Species                                      Incidental take permit is expected in Q2 2018 with details on compliance schedule, 1/2012        TBD WILDLIFE Threatened Listing                                                                                            study scope and required mitigation.
                &                                                                                Compliance dates are determined during the permit reissuance process and are Endangered Atlantic Sturgeon Critical Habitat Listing    2017      2019 - 2023    expected to be as follows for each facility: Surry-2021, Chesterfield-2021, Yorktown 2023, Possum Point-2019.
Key: Constituent: Hg: Mercury; HAPS: Hazardous Air Pollutants; SO2: Sulfur Dioxide; NOx: Nitrogen Oxide; CO2: Carbon Dioxide; Water 316b: Clean Water Act &sect; 316(b) Cooling Water Intake Structures; Regulation: MATS: Mercury & Air Toxics Standards; CPP: Clean Power Plan; CSAPR: Cross-State Air Pollution Rule; SO2 NAAQS: Sulfur Dioxide National Ambient Air Quality Standards; Ozone Std Rev PPB: Ozone Standard Review Parts per Billion; EGU NSPS: Electric Generating Units New Source Performance Standard.
Note: Compliance assumed January 1 except where otherwise noted.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources Revised Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards In May 2008, the EPA revised the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) from 80 parts per billion (ppb) to 75 ppb (the 2008 Ozone NAAQS). In May 2012, the EPA designated the Northern Virginia area nonattainment for the 75-ppb standard which, coupled with the Northern Virginia area being part of the Northeast Ozone Transport Region, requires DEQ to evaluate reasonably available control technology (RACT) requirements for major stationary sources of NOx having the potential to emit of at least 100 tons per year, including the Possum Point facility, as part of its state implementation plan (SIP). In November 2016, the DEQ determined that the installation and operation of SNCR technology to control NOx emissions on Possum Point Unit 5 is needed to meet RACT requirements under the 2008 Ozone NAAQS SIP. The Company is evaluating other alternatives including shutdown of this unit.
In October 2015, the EPA issued a final rule further tightening the ozone standard from 75 ppb to 70 ppb (the 2015 Ozone NAAQS). States will have until 2021 to develop plans to address the new standard. The Company anticipates that the compliance strategy for Possum Point will also meet RACT requirements under the new 2015 Ozone NAAQS. At this time, no other power generating units are expected to be impacted by the new standard. In April 2017, the EPA verbally announced its intent to review its decision to tighten the standard from 75 to 70 ppb but, to date has not published an official notice initiating that review process. In the meantime, the EPA has begun implementing the 2015 Ozone NAAQS and is under a schedule to complete air quality designations for the new standard by April 2018.
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule/Ozone Transport In October 2016, the EPA published final revisions to the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) that substantially reduced the CSAPR Phase II ozone season NOx emission caps in 22 states, including Virginia and West Virginia, beginning with the 2017 ozone season. The reductions in state caps reduces the number of allowances the Companys EGUs will receive under the CSAPR Phase II ozone season NOx program by 22% overall. In addition, the EPA will discount the use of banked Phase I allowances for compliance in Phase II by applying a surrender ratio that the EPA anticipates will be approximately 3.5:1. At this time, the Company does not anticipate the need for any additional NOx controls to be installed on any units to meet these requirements.
In January 2017, the EPA issued a notice of data availability (NODA) providing information on emission inventories, including EGUs. Additionally, the NODA provided air quality modeling projections that identified 18 eastern states, including several where the Company owns and operates electric generating facilities, as having a significant contribution to ozone nonattainment and/or interference with maintenance in another state. This information was provided to assist states in developing SIPs based on an evaluation of whether additional reductions in emissions of NOx and/or volatile organic compounds beyond measures already in place or planned are needed to address interstate transport under the Clean Air Acts good neighbor provisions as it pertains to the 2015 Ozone NAAQS. Although the NODA itself does not do so, this information may be used by the EPA should the agency pursue a regional transport rulemaking requiring additional NOx emission reductions from EGUs as a backstop to address ozone transport under the 2015 ozone NAAQS for states that fail to submit SIPs. At this time, the Company has not planned for any additional NOx controls given the uncertainty of future regulatory action to further address ozone transport.
On March 12, 2018, the State of New York filed a petition with the EPA under Section 126 of the Clean Air Act (CAA) alleging that certain stationary sources of NOx emissions in nine states, including several EGUs in Virginia that are owned and operated by the Company, contribute to nonattainment in New York. The petition requests the EPA to impose strict NOx limits equivalent to RACT requirements that New York has imposed on its facilities. The EPA has 60 days to act on Section 126 petitions, but has the authority under the CAA to extend the deadline. If the EPA grants 33
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources the petition, it may grant affected sources up to three years to comply with the requirements imposed under a Section 126 remedy.
Coal Ash Regulations In April 2015, the EPAs final rule regulating the management of coal ash stored in impoundments (ash ponds) and landfills was published in the Federal Register. This final rule regulates (i) coal ash landfills; (ii) existing ash ponds that still receive and manage coal ash; and (iii) inactive ash ponds that do not receive, but still store coal ash. The Company currently owns ash ponds and coal ash landfills subject to the coal ash final rule at eight different facilities. The final rule required the Company to retrofit or close all of its inactive and existing ash ponds over a certain period of time, as well as to perform required monitoring, corrective action, and post-closure care activities as necessary at both ponds and landfills. Virginia has adopted the current federal coal ash regulations into its state regulations. However, on March 15, 2018, the EPA published a proposed amendment to the federal coal ash regulations that included a number of revisions. The most significant proposed revision would allow risk-based groundwater remediation. Until the proposed amendment becomes final, the federal rule remains in effect and unchanged. The EPA is not seeking to suspend or cancel any part of the coal ash rule at this time. Additionally, until a facility is operating under a coal ash permit issued by a state with an EPA-approved program, the facility must continue to comply with the current federal coal ash rule and any applicable state rules. In Virginia, state regulations would have to be revised for any changes made to the federal rule to apply to Virginia locations. The Company is complying with all federal and state requirements.
In addition, a Virginia law, Senate Bill 1398, which came into effect on July 1, 2017, required that additional assessments be completed by the Company to evaluate alternatives for the closure of ash ponds at four locations (Bremo Bluff, Chesapeake, Chesterfield, and Possum Point Power Stations).
These assessments included an evaluation of the feasibility of the excavation of the ponds and the recycling of ash from the ponds. Groundwater and surface water conditions were also evaluated in the assessments. Lastly, any corrective actions and safety aspects due to the closure of the coal ash ponds were evaluated. The Company engaged a third party to complete the assessment. The report was completed and submitted to the DEQ on December 1, 2017.15 The assessment concluded that all of the options would be fully protective of safety, human health, and the environment. All options would meet the state and federal requirements. The range in costs for the closure options is significanta difference of more than $7.38 billion from the lowest to the highest for the sites. Some alternatives could take longer to complete than allowed by federal regulation.
The impact on the local communities also can vary based on the closure options employed. It is premature to predict with certainty the expenses and other costs associated with the closing, corrective action, and ongoing monitoring of ash ponds.
In addition, as the state and federal coal ash rule is implemented, the rule provides for a number of requirements including groundwater monitoring for both ash ponds and landfills. The first annual groundwater report was posted for active coal ash ponds on March 2, 2018. Additional monitoring will be needed to determine whether corrective action is required at ash ponds or landfills.
Groundwater monitoring will continue for 30 years after a coal ash pond or landfill is closed.
In the 2018 Regular Session, Senate Bill 807 was passed by the General Assembly and was approved by the Governor on March 30, 2018. The Bill provides that permit applications for ponds where ash is being or has been removed can be considered by the DEQ. For Bremo north pond, Chesterfield lower and upper ponds, Chesapeake landfill and bottom ash ponds and Possum Point 15 See https://www.dominionenergy.com/coalash.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources D pond, a request for proposal for recycling ash from these locations is to be issued by the Company to provide additional information on options for closure. A report on the options identified is to be provided to the General Assembly committees, the DEQ, and the Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation by November 15, 2018.
Clean Water Act, Cooling Water Intake Regulations In October 2014, final regulations became effective under Section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act, which govern existing facilities that employ a cooling water intake structure and have flow levels exceeding a minimum threshold. The rule established a national standard for impingement based on seven compliance options. The EPA has delegated entrainment technology decisions to state environmental regulators. State environmental regulators will make case-by-case entrainment technology determinations after an examination of five mandatory facility-specific factors, including a social cost/benefit test, and six optional facility-specific factors. The rule governs all electric generating stations with water withdrawals above two million gallons per day. The Company has 11 facilities that are subject to these regulations, and anticipates that it will have to install impingement control technologies at many of these stations that have once-through cooling systems. The Company is evaluating the need and/or potential for entrainment controls under the final regulations as these decisions will be made on a case-by-case basis by the state regulatory agency after a thorough review of detailed biological, technology, cost, and benefit studies. Any new technology requirements will likely be incorporated in discharge permits issued beginning in 2018, and will be installed in accordance with schedules established in those permits. The costs for these additional control technologies could be significant.
Four of the facilities subject to these regulations have generating units that the Company is transitioning to cold reserve status. The Company is working with the DEQ to determine how cold reserve will impact Section 316(b) compliance requirements.
Clean Power Plan As discussed in Chapter 1, the Company no longer believes the CPP to be a pending regulation.
However, based on a broad interpretation of the SCCs directive in its 2017 Plan Final Order that the Companys future plans comply with the requirement of Va. Code &sect; 56-599 B 9 (requiring the IRP to include the most cost effective means of complying with current and pending state and federal environmental regulations the Company provides a build plan under a CPP scenario and the resulting NPV. See Appendix 1B. The Company also notes that RGGI is more restrictive than the originally proposed CPP and that it is possible that future federal regulations could also be more stringent. The Company assesses a plausible future path complying with Virginia RGGI or RGGI in Alternative Plans B, C, and D.
3.1.3.1 POTENTIAL STATE CARBON REGULATION The Company has closely monitored and actively participated in the process the Commonwealth of Virginia has undertaken to address power sector GHG emissions. As discussed in Chapter 1, the Commonwealth has attempted to address GHG emissions through both legislative and executive action. The General Assembly has considered legislation requiring Virginia to join RGGI, but such legislation has failed to date. While Virginia appears to be moving forward with carbon regulations through executive action (i.e., the Virginia RGGI Program), the 2018 Plan considers both RGGI and the Virginia RGGI Program.
RGGI Initiated in 2009, RGGI is a collaborative effort among the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont to cap and reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector. New Jersey, an original participant in RGGI, withdrew from the program in 2013, but has recently announced that it will initiate a process to rejoin the program. According to the RGGI website:
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources RGGI is composed of individual CO2 Budget Trading Programs in each participating state. Through independent regulations, based on the RGGI Model Rule, each states CO2 Budget Trading Program limits emissions of CO2 from electric power plants, issues CO2 allowances and establishes participation in regional CO2 allowance auctions. RGGI is the first mandatory, market-based CO2 emissions reduction program in the United States. Within the RGGI states, fossil-fuel-fired electric power generators with a capacity of 25 megawatts (MW) or greater (regulated sources) are required to hold allowances equal to their CO2 emissions over a three-year control period. A CO2 allowance represents a limited authorization to emit one short ton of CO2 from a regulated source, as issued by a participating state. Regulated power plants can use a CO2 allowance issued by any participating state to demonstrate compliance in any state. They may acquire allowances by purchasing them at regional auctions, or through secondary markets. 16 Historical and future RGGI regional cap levels for allowances per year are as follows:
* 2009 - 2011: RGGI cap was 188 million tons per year for the RGGI region (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont);
* 2012 - 2013: RGGI cap was reduced to 165 million tons per year (to account for New Jerseys withdrawl from the program);
* 2014: RGGI cap was 91,000,000, RGGI adjusted cap was 82,792,336;17
* 2015: RGGI cap was 88,725,000, RGGI adjusted cap was 66,833,592;
* 2016: RGGI cap was 86,506,875, RGGI adjusted cap was 64,615,467;
* 2017: RGGI cap was 84,344,203, RGGI adjusted cap was 62,452,795;
* 2018: RGGI cap is 82,235,598, RGGI adjusted cap is 60,344,190;
* 2019: RGGI cap is 80,179,708, RGGI adjusted cap is 58,288,301;
* 2020: RGGI cap is 78,175,215, RGGI adjusted cap is 56,283,807;
* 2021 - 2030: A regional cap of 75,147,784 tons of CO2 in 2021, which will decline by 2.275 million tons of CO2 per year thereafter. The RGGI states will address the bank of allowances held by market participants with an adjustment for banked allowances. This adjustment will be made over a 5-year period (2021 - 2025) based upon the size of the bank at the end of 2020.
All adjusted cap figures identified above represent RGGI program adjustments based on the allowance bank at the close of a predetermined period of time.
There is no ceiling price for RGGI allowances. However, RGGI has established a cost containment reserve (CCR), consisting of a quantity of allowances in addition to the cap that are held in reserve:
16 https://www.rggi.org/program-overview-and-design/elements.
17 RGGI implemented adjustments reducing the regional cap to account for banked allowances beginning with the 2014 control period.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources These [reserve allowances] are only made available for sale if allowance prices exceed predefined price levels, so that the CCR will only trigger if emission reduction costs are higher than projected. The CCR is replenished at the start of each calendar year. The CCR trigger price [which is currently
                $10.25/ton of CO2] will increase by 2.5% per year through 2020, and its size will be 10 million allowances each year.
Then, based on the 2017 Model Rule, after 2020 the CCR size and trigger price trajectory will change. The CCR trigger price will be $13.00 in 2021 and will increase by 7% per year thereafter. The CCR's size will be 10% of the regional cap each year. 18 There is also no floor price for RGGI allowances, although RGGI plans on introducing an emissions containment reserve (ECR) beginning in 2021:
States implementing the ECR will withhold allowances from circulation to secure additional emissions reductions if prices fall below established trigger prices, so that the ECR will only trigger if emission reduction costs are lower than projected. The ECR trigger price will be $6.00 in 2021, and rise at 7% per year thereafter. Its size will be 10% of the budgets of the states implementing the ECR. (Note that at this time, Maine and New Hampshire do not intend to participate in the ECR).16 RGGI allowances are obtained by participants through quarterly, regional CO2 allowance auctions.
These auctions are sealed-bid, uniform price auctions that are open to all qualified participants, which can include non-compliance entities. They result in a single quarterly clearing price. In most RGGI states, auction revenue is returned to state coffers. In addition to purchasing allowances at auction, entities are also able to trade allowances on secondary markets, via over-the-counter trades or exchanges.
The Virginia General Assembly has considered legislation to join RGGI. To date, these legislative efforts have not been successful, though the executive branch in Virginia is pursuing a similar administrative regulation.
Virginia RGGI Apart from the legislative process, Virginia has taken action to address the power sector GHG emissions through a series of executive actions and directives.
On May 16, 2017, then Governor McAuliffe issued ED-11, which requires the DEQ to:
: 1. Develop a proposed regulation for the State Air Pollution Control Boards consideration to abate, control, or limit carbon dioxide emissions from electric power facilities that:
: a. Includes provisions to ensure that Virginias regulation is trading-ready to allow for the use of market-based mechanisms and the trading of carbon dioxide allowances through a multi-state trading program; and 18 https://www.rggi.org/program-overview-and-design/elements.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources
: b. Establishes abatement mechanisms providing for a corresponding level of stringency to limits on carbon dioxide emissions imposed in other states with such limits.
: 2. By no later than December 31, 2017, present the proposed regulation to the State Air Pollution Control Board for consideration for approval for public comment in accordance with the Boards authority. 19 In accordance with ED-11, the DEQ developed a draft regulation establishing a cap-and-trade program in Virginia with the intent to link the program to RGGI. The draft proposal seeks to facilitate a linkage to RGGI by including most of the elements of the RGGI 2017 Model Rule which was finalized in December 2017. The DEQ proposal requires sources covered under the program to consign allocated emission allowances to the RGGI allowance auction. Under this approach, the allowance revenue collected via the RGGI allowance auctions would be allocated to covered generation sources in Virginia.
The Virginia State Air Pollution Control Board (VSAPCB) and then Governor McAuliffe approved the DEQ draft proposal on November 16, 2017, and December 15, 2017, respectively. The draft proposal (referred to in this 2018 Plan as the Virginia RGGI Program) and notice seeking public comments were published in the Virginia Register on January 8, 2018, which initiated a 90-day comment period on the proposed regulation effective through April 9, 2018. The DEQ expects to finalize the rule by late 2018.
If finalized as currently proposed, CO2 allowance allocation budgets would begin under the Virginia RGGI Program in calendar year 2020. The Virginia RGGI Program would cap CO2 emissions for Virginia at 33 or 34 million tons for calendar year 2020, and would decrease the emissions cap annually by approximately 3% to achieve a 30% reduction from 2020 levels to a level of 23.1 million tons or 23.8 million tons in 2030. Emission sources subject to the Virginia RGGI Program would be required to obtain and surrender a CO2 emission allowance for every ton of CO2 emitted during a control period through participation in a consignment auction linked to the RGGI allowance auction program.
A unique feature of the proposed Virginia RGGI Program calls for CO2 allowances to be allocated (at no charge) to Virginia generators, apportioned based on each units pro rata share of the statewide historical generation output (in MWh). Specifically, the DEQ proposes to link the Virginia RGGI Program to RGGI by way of a consignment auction. Under this approach, the DEQ would allocate a pool of allowances, called conditional allowances, to each generating unit. These conditional allowances would need to be consigned over to the RGGI auction and clear the RGGI market in order to be converted to conventional allowances that can be used for compliance purposes.
Revenue generated through the sale of the allowances in the RGGI auction (based on the auction clearing price) would be returned to the generators.
According to the DEQ, the purpose of the consignment auction is to ensure that the Virginia RGGI Program allowances enter the RGGI market and that the auction proceeds are collected and redistributed directly to the generators.
Evaluation of RGGI and Virginia RGGI On April 9, 2018, the Company submitted written comments to the DEQ on its proposal to regulate carbon emissions from Virginia power plants. In the comments, the Company noted that the 19 http://register.dls.virginia.gov/details.aspx?id=6770.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources Commonwealths linkage to the RGGI program through the Virginia RGGI Program would encourage electricity imports from out-of-state sources that are more carbon-intensive with no real mitigation of GHG emissions regionally and would result in a financial burden on Virginia electricity customers.
Modeling requested by the Company, as discussed in more detail below, supports these concerns.
In summary:
* Virginias linkage to RGGI will encourage electricity imports from out-of-state sources that are more carbon intensive. The program will result in a significant increase in power imports while highly-efficient and lower-emitting NGCC facilities in Virginia will run less;
* Reductions in carbon emissions in Virginia, as a result of the increased use of imported power, will be offset by emission increases elsewhere within the NERC EI, which includes all of PJM and the RGGI region;
* Increased imports of more carbon-intensive power will result in the carbon footprint per customer in Virginia increasing by about 5.7% by 2030; and
* Linking to RGGI could impose over $500 million in additional cost to Virginia customers during the 2020 to 2030 period.
The renewable generation encouraged by the GTSA, if approved and constructed, will, to some degree, mitigate power imports and costs.
If Virginia joins RGGI, Virginia generators would need to account for the price (i.e., value) of RGGI CO2 allowances in its cost of dispatch, much like federal SO2 and NOx programs. Unlike those federal programs, however, generators in neighboring states that are not subject to RGGI or a similar state-level program would have no such cost. Thus, generators in Virginia would be at a cost disadvantage to generators in neighboring states not subject to RGGI, such as North Carolina and West Virginia. This would lead to higher levels of more carbon intensive imported power into Virginia and could lead to stranded assets in Virginia. Electric customers in Virginia would be subject to the volatile price swings of the imported power markets while still paying for in-state generation assets in Virginia that are utilized less than planned. It should be noted that most RGGI states no longer have vertically integrated utilities. Moreover, among the 13-state PJM regional transmission organization that the Company belongs to, most states are not RGGI participants, even assuming that both New Jersey and Virginia join. Virginia also has competitive shopping provisions for large customers that are atypical for vertically integrated regulatory models. These factors all heighten the potential for customers to bypass costs associated with RGGI (and potentially other environmental costs such as coal ash management) by competitively shopping.
While CO2 emissions in Virginia would decrease under RGGI as a result of imported power, there would be no change in overall CO2 emissions on a regional basis because most of the imported power would be sourced from more carbon intensive natural gas- or coal-fired generation. While the Company is committed to a lower carbon future, it believes, based on careful analysis, that the Commonwealths participation in RGGI would penalize Virginia generators relative to those in other states and result in cost increases for Virginia electricity customers with no real mitigation of GHG emissions.
An additional consideration is the potential likelihood that Virginias emissions cap under the RGGI program will be lowered. RGGI re-assesses its program every three years based on historical performance. Since 2009, RGGI has conducted two program reviews, one in 2012 and one in 2017.
Both of these reviews have resulted in a lowering of going-forward CO2 emission caps for the RGGI region. The next assessment period is scheduled to occur in 2021, which is only one year after Virginia would begin its participation in RGGI under the Virginia RGGI Program. This means that the Virginia cap identified in the current Virginia RGGI Program through 2030 may be re-negotiated in 2021 and may be different than what is currently proposed. Effectively, Virginias entrance into 39
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources RGGI through the Virginia RGGI Program creates just two years (i.e., 2020 and 2021) of known CO2 limitations. Based on RGGIs two prior re-assessments, the CO2 cap will likely be different than what is currently proposed. This periodic re-assessment increases uncertainty in electric utility planning.
From the Companys perspective, any program setting carbon emission targets for EGUs must account for the dynamics of power generated outside of and imported into Virginia. The program baseline and targets must reflect and account for the fact that Virginia is a net importer of energy from more carbon-intensive out-of-state resources. The program also must be designed to allow for expansion of lower-emitting cleaner generation in the state to address energy needs and to reduce imports of electricity in accordance with state energy policy. Encouraging the expansion of highly-efficient NGCC and renewable energy resources, including solar, wind, and pumped storage, within the Commonwealth will grow the states economy and lower emissions by decreasing reliance on more carbon-intensive power imported from other states.
Further, Virginias carbon footprint from electric power generation is already significantly cleaner than many of its neighboring states. The Company is concerned that setting a stringent cap on already cleaner generation in Virginia absent a similar level of reductions from neighboring states would increase the cost burden to Virginia generators. Such a cap would likely encourage lower cost electricity imports from out-of-state sources that are more carbon-intensive and not subject to a carbon cost adder. This could result in the unintended consequence of curtailing or limiting the dispatch of highly-efficient and lower-emitting generating facilities in Virginia and encouraging the dispatch of higher-emitting resources in neighboring states.
With federal regulations currently stayed and under administrative review, few states outside of the northeast RGGI program and along the west coast have proceeded or are proceeding with definitive carbon regulations. This includes the majority of PJM member states including Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Coupled with the possible forced retirement and/or curtailment of fossil fuel-fired resources, this raises reliability concerns with increased dependence on more carbon intensive out of-state power to meet Virginias energy needs.
These concerns are borne out by comparing the results of the No CO2 Tax commodity forecast to the Virginia RGGI commodity forecastforecasts that were requested by the Company and performed by ICF.20 In support of the 2018 Plan, ICF provided the Company with forecasts for a case where Virginia joins RGGI (Virginia RGGI) and a case where Virginia does not join RGGI (No CO2 Tax). Both cases assume no CO2 program at the federal level. Further, both cases assume that New Jersey rejoins and participates in RGGI beginning in 2020. Although the Virginia RGGI regulation would not involve Virginia directly joining RGGI, the rule as proposed is designed to link to the RGGI program by way of a consignment auction of CO2 emission allowances, a level and timeline of emission reductions equivalent in stringency to RGGI, and provisions implementing the RGGI 2017 Model Rule. The region modeled covers the U.S. and Canada, including the entire NERC EI.
The analysis shows that the Virginia RGGI Program does not result in overall carbon emission reductions in the EI or PJM regions by 2030. Under the analysis, emissions in the entire EI in 2030 are about 10 million tons higher than emissions in 2020, and about 3 million tons higher in the PJM region during the same period. The analysis shows that, for the most part, emissions reductions achieved in the RGGI region would be offset by emissions increases in the non-RGGI portions of the region. Cumulatively, over the period 2020 to 2030, emissions in the portion of the EI subject to 20 See Section 4.4.2 for discussion of the alternative commodity forecasts. These sensitivity cases do not represent ICFs reference case view.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources RGGI would be reduced by about 75 million tons, but would increase by almost 90 million tons in the non-RGGI portion of the EI. In PJM, the total emission levels in 2030 in the case where Virginia joins RGGI are only one half of one percent lower (2 million tons) than in the case where Virginia does not join RGGI.
The analysis also shows significant increases in net energy imports (gigawatt hours GWh) in Virginia (based on annual retail sales of electricity) with Virginia linked to RGGI, almost doubling from about 28% under the case with no carbon regulations in Virginia to 48% for the case with Virginia joining RGGI. At the same time, the weighted average capacity factor for NGCC facilities in Virginia is projected to decrease by almost 50% between 2020 and 2030 under the RGGI case.
Natural gas-fired units in Virginia will still be subject to a CO2 cost adder that units outside of the carbon-constrained region will not be subject to. Thus, the effect of RGGI-equivalent reduction requirements in Virginia is likely to limit the dispatch of highly-efficient and lower-emitting NGCC facilities in Virginia and to encourage the dispatch of higher-emitting resources and increased emissions in neighboring states outside of the RGGI region.
The modeling results also show that the average carbon intensity in 2030 of electricity (imports and in state generation) in Virginia with the state not joining RGGI is projected to be 742 lbs/MWh in 2030. Carbon intensity increases to 784 lbs/MWh if Virginia joins RGGI. This is a 5.7% increase in carbon intensity of the electricity used by Virginia customers, largely due to increased electricity imports into Virginia, which have a higher carbon intensity than in-state generation.
Analysis of the modeling results also reflects that linking to RGGI is projected to cost Virginia customers about $530 million over the period 2020 to 2030. This includes cost for carbon emission allowances plus increased imported power cost adjusted for reduction in total production cost for Virginia. Furthermore, the modeling indicates that Virginia joining or linking to RGGI will lower allowance prices, thereby lowering the cost of carbon compliance in other RGGI states subsidized, in part, by Virginia electricity customers. Should Virginia join or link to RGGI, the RGGI states outside of Virginia will incur $876 million less in costs related to RGGI allowance purchases for the period 2020 to 2030 than the RGGI states would have incurred without Virginia joining RGGI.
3.1.4      GENERATION RETIREMENTS & BLACKSTART Retirements Based on the current and anticipated environmental regulations along with current market conditions, the 2018 Plan includes the following impacts to the Companys existing generating resources in terms of retirements. On April 16, 2016, the EPA granted permission, through an Administrative Order, to operate the Yorktown Units 1 (159 MW) and 2 (164 MW), until April 15, 2017, under certain limitations consistent with the Mercury and Air Toxic Standards (MATS). Upon expiration of the EPA Administrative Order on April 15, 2017, the Company ceased operation of the Yorktown coal-fired units to comply with MATS. On June 13, 2017, PJM filed a request for emergency order pursuant to Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act21 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and on June 16, 2017, the DOE granted an order (DOE Order) to PJM to direct the Company to operate Yorktown Units 1 and 2 as needed to avoid reliability issues on the Virginia Peninsula for 90 days. In response to subsequent PJM requests for renewals of the DOE Order, the DOE issued additional 90-day emergency orders pursuant to Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act on September 14, 2017, December 13, 2017, and March 13, 2018. PJM plans to request further renewals of the emergency orders on a rolling basis until the Skiffes Creek electric transmission project in the Peninsula region is placed into service. While this is not a long-term solution to the reliability issues in the Virginia Peninsula, the Company supports PJMs action and the DOE decision, and will work to ensure the units availability as required.
21 See generally 16 U.S.C. &sect; 824.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources For purposes of this 2018 Plan, the Company made certain assumptions regarding generation unit retirements. The generators listed below should be considered as tentative for retirement only. The Companys final decisions regarding any unit retirement will be made at a future date. For purposes of this 2018 Plan, the assumptions regarding generation unit retirements are as follows:
* Bellemeade (267 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Bremo Power Units 3 and 4 (227 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Chesterfield Units 3 and 4 (261 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Mecklenburg Units 1 and 2 (138 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Pittsylvania (83 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Possum Point Units 3 and 4 (316 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Possum Point Unit 5 (786 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Yorktown Unit 3 (790 MW) to be potentially retired by 2022 in all Alternative Plans;
* Chesterfield Units 5 (336 MW) and 6 (670 MW) to be potentially retired by 2023 in Alternative Plans B, C, and D; and
* Clover Units 1 (220 MW) and 2 (219 MW) to be potentially retired by 2025 in Alternative Plans B, C, and D.
Figure 6.9.1 reflects the results of a retirement and co-fire analysis that was conducted by the Company regarding the Companys coal- and heavy-oil fired units. This analysis is included in this 2018 Plan as a result of a request by the SCC Staff during the 2016 Plan regulatory proceedings.
Blackstart Blackstart generators are generating units that are able to start without an outside electrical supply or are able to remain operating at reduced levels when automatically disconnected from the grid.
NERC Reliability Standard EOP-005-2 requires each RTO to have a plan that allows for restoring its system following a complete shutdown (i.e., blackout). As the RTO, PJM performs an analysis to verify all requirements are met and coordinates this analysis with the Company in its role as a transmission owner. The Company and other PJM members have and continue to work with PJM to implement an RTO-wide strategy for procuring blackstart resources. This strategy ensures a resilient and robust system capable of meeting blackstart and restoration requirements. The strategy is described in detail in Section 10 of PJM Manual 14D - Generator Operational Requirements.22 PJM issues an RTO-wide request for proposal (RFP) for blackstart generation every five years, which is open to all existing and potential new blackstart units on a voluntary basis.
Resources are selected based upon the individual needs of each transmission zone. The first five-year selection process was initiated in 2013 and resulted in blackstart solutions totaling 286 MW in the DOM Zone. Two solutions became effective on June 1, 2015. The first was for 50 MW and the second was for 85 MW. The third solution for 151 MW became effective on June 1, 2016. PJM issued an RTO-wide RFP in January 2018. The blackstart solutions must be implemented by April 1, 2020. For incremental changes in resource needs or availability that may arise between the five-year solicitations, the strategy includes an incremental RFP process.
22 See http://www.pjm.com/~/media/documents/manuals/m14d.ashx.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources 3.1.5      GENERATION UNDER CONSTRUCTION The SCC approved a certificate of public convenience and necessity (CPCN) for Greensville County Power Station (1,585 MW CC) on March 29, 2016. The unit is currently under construction and is expected to be online by 2019.
Figure 3.1.5.1 and Appendix 3K provide a summary of the generation under construction included in the Alternative Plans along with the forecasted in-service date and summer/winter capacity.
Figure 3.1.5.1 - Generation under Construction Forecasted                                                                                              Capacity (Net MW)
Unit Name            Location  Primary Fuel          Unit Type COD1                                                                                        Nameplate    Summer      Winter 2019    Greensville County Power Station  VA        Natural Gas    Intermediate/Baseload      1,585        1,585      1,710 Note: 1) Commercial Operation Date.
3.1.6      NON-UTILITY GENERATION A portion of the Companys load and energy requirement is supplemented with contracted NUGs.
The Company has existing contracts with fossil-burning and renewable NUGs and BTMG for capacity of approximately 905 MW (nameplate). These NUGs are all considered firm generating capacity resources and are included in the 2018 Plan as supply-side resources.
Each of the NUGs listed as a capacity resource in Appendix 3B, including solar NUGs, are under contract to supply capacity and energy to the Company. NUG units are obligated to provide firm generating capacity and energy at the contracted terms during the life of the contract. The firm generating capacity from NUGs is included as a resource in meeting the Companys reserve requirements.
For modeling purposes, the Company assumed that its NUG capacity will be available as a firm generating capacity resource in accordance with current contractual terms. These NUG units also provide energy to the Company according to their contractual arrangements. At the expiration of these NUG contracts, these units will no longer be modeled as a firm generating capacity resource.
The Company assumed that NUGs or any other non-Company owned resource without a contract with the Company are available to the Company at market prices; therefore, the Companys optimization model may select these resources in lieu of other Company-owned or -sponsored supply- or demand-side resources should the market economics dictate. Although this is a reasonable planning assumption, parties may elect to enter into future bilateral contracts on mutually agreeable terms. For potential bilateral contracts not known at this time, the market price is the best proxy to use for planning purposes.
3.1.7      WHOLESALE & PURCHASED POWER Wholesale Power Sales The Company currently provides full requirement wholesale power sales to three entities, which are included in the Companys load forecast. These entities are Craig Botetourt Electric Cooperative, the Virginia Municipal Electric Association No. 1, and the Town of Windsor in North Carolina.
Additionally, the Company has partial requirement contracts to supply the supplemental power needs of the North Carolina Electric Membership Cooperative. Appendix 3L provides a listing of wholesale power sales contracts with parties to whom the Company has either committed, or expects to sell power during the Planning Period.
Purchased Power The Company does not have any bilateral contractual obligations with wholesale power suppliers or power marketers. As a member of PJM, the Company has the option to buy capacity through the 43
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources Reliability Pricing Model (RPM) auction (RPM auction) process to satisfy its RPM requirements.
The Company has satisfied its capacity obligation from the RPM auction through May 31, 2021.
Behind-the-Meter Generation BTMG occurs on the customers side of the meter. Typically, the Company purchases all output from the customer and services all of the customers capacity and energy requirements. The unit descriptions are provided in Appendix 3B.
3.2 DEMAND-SIDE RESOURCES In 2007, the Commonwealth of Virginia set a public policy goal of reducing the consumption of electric energy by retail customers by 10% from its 2006 baseline by 2022. The Company expressed its commitment to helping Virginia reach this goal through the implementation of cost-effective DSM programs.
In 2018, the Commonwealth reiterated its commitment to energy conservation in the GTSA.
Specifically, an enactment clause of the GTSA requires the Company to develop proposed programs of energy conservation measures with a projected cost of no less than $870 million for the period beginning July 1, 2018, and ending July 1, 2028. At least 5% of the proposed programs must benefit low-income, elderly, and disabled individuals. In developing these programs, the Company must utilize a stakeholder process to receive input and feedback on the development of its energy efficiency programs. The stakeholder process will be facilitated by an independent monitor compensated under the funding provided pursuant to Va. Code &sect; 56-592.1 E, and will include representatives from the SCC, the Attorney Generals Office of Consumer Counsel, the Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy, energy efficiency program implementers, energy efficiency providers, residential and small business customers, and any other interested stakeholders who the independent monitor deems appropriate for inclusion.
The Company generally defines DSM as all activities or programs undertaken to influence the amount and timing of electricity use. DSM encourages the more efficient use of existing resources and delays or eliminates the need for new supply-side infrastructure. The Companys DSM programs are designed to provide customers the opportunity to manage or reduce their electricity usage.
In this 2018 Plan, four categories of DSM programs are addressed: (i) those approved by the SCC and NCUC; (ii) those filed with the SCC for a program extension; (iii) those under consideration but that have not been fully evaluated (i.e., potential DSM resources); and (iv) those currently rejected from further consideration. The Companys programs have been designed and evaluated using a system-level analysis. Figure 3.2.1 provides a tabular representation of the approved, proposed extension, under consideration, and rejected programs.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources Figure 3.2.1 - DSM Tariffs & Programs Tariff                                  Status (VA / NC)
Standby Generator Tariff Approved / Approved Curtailable Service Tariff Program                                  Status (VA / NC)
Air Conditioner Cycling Program                                  Approved / Approved Residential Low Income Program Completed / Completed Residential Lighting Program Commercial Lighting Program Closed / Closed Commercial HVAC Upgrade Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program              Extension Approved / Rejected Non-Residential Energy Audit Program Non-Residential Duct Testing and Sealing Program Residential Bundle Program Completed / Completed Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program Residential Duct Sealing Program Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program                Extension Rejected / Completed Non-Residential Window Film Program Non-Residential Lighting Systems & Controls Program              Approved / Approved Non-Residential Heating and Cooling Efficiency Program Income and Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program    Extension Under Consideration / Suspended Residential Appliance Recycling Program                          Completed / No Plans Small Business Improvement Program                                Approved / Approved Residential Retail LED Lighting Program (NC only)                  Approved (NC only)
Non-Residential Prescriptive Program                              Approved / Approved Non-Residential Re-commissioning Program Under Consideration / Under Consideration Non-Residential Compressed Air System Program Non-Residential HVAC Tune-Up Program Energy Management System Program ENERGY STAR New Homes Program Geo-Thermal Heat Pump Program Home Energy Comparison Program Home Performance with ENERGY STAR Program In-Home Energy Display Program Premium Efficiency Motors Program Residential Refrigerator Turn-In Program Residential Solar Water Heating Program Residential Water Heater Cycling Program Residential Comprehensive Energy Audit Program Rejected and Currently Not Under Residential Radiant Barrier Program Consideration Residential Lighting (Phase II) Program Non-Residential Refrigeration Program Cool Roof Program Non-Residential Data Centers Program Non-Residential Curtailable Service Program Non-Residential Custom Incentive Enhanced Air Conditioner Direct Load Control Program Residential Programmable Thermostat Program Residential Controllable Thermostat Program Residential New Homes Program Voltage Conservation Residential Home Energy Assessment 45
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources 3.2.1    DSM PROGRAM DEFINITIONS For purposes of its DSM programs in Virginia, the Company applies the definitions set forth in Va.
Code &sect; 56-576, as provided below.
* Demand Response: Measures aimed at shifting time of use of electricity from peak-use periods to times of lower demand by inducing retail customers to curtail electricity usage during periods of congestion and higher prices in the electrical grid.
* Energy Efficiency Program: A program that reduces the total amount of electricity that is required for the same process or activity implemented after the expiration of capped rates.
Energy efficiency programs include equipment, physical, or program change designed to produce measured and verified reductions in the amount of electricity required to perform the same function and produce the same or a similar outcome. Energy efficiency programs may include, but are not limited to (i) programs that result in improvements in lighting design, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, appliances, building envelopes, and industrial and commercial processes; (ii) measures, such as, but not limited to, the installation of advanced meters, implemented or installed by utilities, that reduce fuel use or losses of electricity and otherwise improve internal operating efficiency in generation, transmission, and distribution systems; and (iii) customer engagement programs that result in measurable and verifiable energy savings that lead to efficient use patterns and practices.
Energy efficiency programs include demand response, combined heat and power and waste heat recovery, curtailment, or other programs that are designed to reduce electricity consumption, so long as they reduce the total amount of electricity that is required for the same process or activity. Utilities shall be authorized to install and operate such advanced metering technology and equipment on a customers premises; however, nothing in Chapter 23 of Title 56 establishes a requirement that an energy efficiency program be implemented on a customers premises and be connected to a customers wiring on the customers side of the interconnection without the customers expressed consent.
* Peak-Shaving: Measures aimed solely at shifting time of use of electricity from peak-use periods to times of lower demand by inducing retail customers to curtail electricity usage during periods of congestion and higher prices in the electrical grid.
For purposes of its DSM programs in North Carolina, the Company applies the definitions set forth in NCGS &sect; 62-133.8 (a) (2) and (4) for DSM and energy efficiency measures as defined below.
* Demand-Side Management: Activities, programs, or initiatives undertaken by an electric power supplier or its customers to shift the timing of electricity use from peak to non-peak demand periods. DSM includes, but is not limited to, load management, electric system equipment and operating controls, direct load control, and interruptible load.
* Energy Efficiency Measure: Equipment, physical, or program change implemented after January 1, 2007, that results in less energy used to perform the same function. Energy efficiency measure includes, but is not limited to, energy produced from a combined heat and power system that uses non-renewable energy resources. It does not include DSM.
3.2.2    CURRENT DSM TARIFFS The Company modeled existing DSM pricing tariffs over the Study Period, based on historical data from the Companys customer information system. These projections were modeled with diminishing returns assuming new DSM programs will offer more cost-effective choices in the future.
No active DSM pricing tariffs have been discontinued since the Companys 2017 Plan.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources STANDBY GENERATION Program Type:            Energy Efficiency - Demand Response Target Class:            Commercial & Industrial
 
==Participants:==
2 customers on Standby Generation in Virginia Capacity Available: See Figure 3.2.2.1 The Company currently offers one DSM pricing tariff, the standby generation (SG) rate schedule, to enrolled customers in Virginia. This tariff provides incentive payments for dispatchable load reductions that can be called on by the Company when capacity is needed.
The SG rate schedule provides a direct means of implementing load reduction during peak periods by transferring load normally served by the Company to a customers standby generator. The customer receives a bill credit based on a contracted capacity level or the average capacity generated during a billing month when SG is requested.
During a load reduction event, a customer receiving service under the SG rate schedule is required to transfer a contracted level of load to its dedicated on-site backup generator. Figure 3.2.2.1 provides estimated load response data for summer/winter 2017. Additional jurisdictional rate schedule information is available on the Companys website at www.dominionenergy.com.
Figure 3.2.2.1 - Estimated Load Response Data Summer 2017          Winter 2017 Estimated            Estimated Number of            Number of MW                    MW Events                Events Tariff                  Reduction              Reduction Standby Generation      19        1.5        1          0.5 3.2.3    CURRENT & COMPLETED DSM PILOTS & DEMONSTRATIONS Pilots The Company has received SCC approval for implementation of the DSM pilots described below.
Dynamic Pricing Tariffs Pilot State:              Virginia Target Class:      Residential and Non-Residential Pilot Type:        Peak-Shaving Pilot Duration: Pilot concluded July 31, 2017
 
==
Description:==
 
On September 30, 2010, the Company filed with the SCC an application (Case No. PUE-2010 00135) requesting approval of three experimental and voluntary dynamic pricing tariffs designated Rate Schedules DP-R, DP-1, and DP-2 (Dynamic Pricing Tariffs), as part of a structured comprehensive pilot program that the Company would implement in its Virginia service territory (Dynamic Pricing Pilot). The Dynamic Pricing Pilot program was approved by the SCCs Order Establishing Pilot Program issued on April 8, 2011.
The Dynamic Pricing Pilot was branded as the Companys Smart Pricing Plan, and the Dynamic Pricing Tariffs were open for eligible customers to take service beginning July 1, 2011. The Dynamic Pricing Tariffs were approved for extension and expansion in August 2013. New customer enrollment ended on November 30, 2014. The Pilot was approved for extension a second time on December 18, 2015 and ended as scheduled on July 31, 2017. On June 1, 2017, the SCC 47
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources approved the Companys request to allow pilot participants to remain on the Dynamic Pricing Tariffs after the July 31, 2017 pilot conclusion date if they so chose.
Status:
The Company does not plan to offer the Dynamic Pricing Pilot as designed to additional customers on a larger scale. The Company will continue to evaluate options for customers to manage their energy use, including dynamic pricing, similar rate offerings, and demand side management programs, and the results from the Dynamic Pricing Pilot will be an important input into those evaluations going forward. Additional information is available in the Companys Annual Report on the Dynamic Pricing Pilot filed on October 31, 2017, in Case No. PUE-2010-00135.
Electric Vehicle Pilot State:              Virginia Target Class:      Residential Pilot Type:        Peak-Shaving Pilot Duration: Enrollment began October 3, 2011, and concluded September 1, 2016 Pilot scheduled to conclude November 30, 2018.
 
==
Description:==
 
On January 31, 2011, the Company filed an application with the SCC (Case No. PUE-2011-00014) proposing a pilot program to offer experimental and voluntary electric vehicle (EV) rate options to encourage residential customers who purchase or lease EVs to charge them during off-peak periods. The SCC approved the pilot in July 2011. The pilot program provided two rate options.
One rate option, a whole house rate, allowed customers to apply the time-of-use rate to their entire service, including their premises and vehicle. The other rate option, an EV only rate, allowed customers to remain on the existing residential rate for their premises and subscribe to the time-of use rate only for their vehicle. The program was limited to 1,500 residential customers, with up to 750 in each of the two experimental rates. Additional information regarding the Companys EV Pilot Program is available in the Companys application, in the SCCs Order Granting Approval, in the Companys Annual Reports, and at https://www.dominionenergy.com/electricvehicle.
Status:
As of December 31, 2017, there were 409 customers enrolled on the whole-house EV rate and 158 customers were enrolled on the EV-only rate.
AMI Upgrades State:              Virginia and North Carolina Target Class:      All Classes Type:              Energy Efficiency Duration:          Ongoing
 
==
Description:==
 
The Company continues to upgrade meters to advanced metering infrastructure (AMI or smart meters).
Status:
As of December 2017, the Company has installed over 385,000 smart meters in areas throughout Virginia and North Carolina. The AMI meter upgrades are part of an ongoing project that will help the Company further evaluate the effectiveness of AMI meters in: achieving voltage conservation and voltage stability; remotely turning off and on electric service; detecting and reporting power outages; remotely integrating DERs; and offering dynamic rates. AMI is critical for grid modernization as discussed in Section 5.1.4.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources 3.2.4      CURRENT CONSUMER EDUCATION PROGRAMS The Companys consumer education initiatives include providing demand and energy usage information, educational opportunities, and online customer support options to assist customers in managing their energy consumption. The Companys website has a section dedicated to energy conservation that contains helpful information for both residential and non-residential customers, including information about the Companys DSM programs. Through consumer education, the Company is working to encourage the adoption of energy-efficient technologies in residences and businesses in Virginia and North Carolina. Examples of how the Company seeks to increase customer awareness include:
Customer Connection Newsletter State: Virginia and North Carolina The Customer Connection Newsletter contains news on topics such as DSM programs, how to save money and manage electric bills, helping the environment, service issues, and safety recommendations, in addition to many other relevant subjects. Articles from the most recent Customer Connection Newsletter are located on the Companys website at:
https://www.dominionenergy.com/community/customer-newsletters.
Twitter and Facebook State: Virginia and North Carolina The Company uses the social media channels of Twitter and Facebook to provide real-time updates on energy-related topics, promote Company messages, and provide two-way communication with customers. The Companys Twitter account is available online at:
www.twitter.com/DomEnergyVA. The Companys Facebook account is available online at:
https://www.facebook.com/dominionenergyva.
News Releases State: Virginia and North Carolina The Company prepares news releases and reports on the latest developments regarding its DSM initiatives and provides updates on Company offerings and recommendations for saving energy as new information becomes available. Current and archived news releases can be viewed at:
https://www.dominionenergy.mediaroom.com.
Online Energy Calculators State: Virginia and North Carolina Home and business energy calculators are provided on the Companys website to estimate electrical usage for homes and business facilities. The calculators can help customers understand specific energy use by location and discover new means to reduce usage and save money. An appliance energy usage calculator and holiday lighting calculator are also available to customers. The energy calculators are available at: https://www.dominionenergy.com/home-and-small-business/ways-to save/energy-saving-calculators.
Community Outreach - Trade Shows, Exhibits, and Speaking Engagements State: Virginia and North Carolina The Company conducts outreach seminars and speaking engagements in order to share relevant energy conservation program information to both internal and external audiences. The Company also participates in various trade shows and exhibits at energy-related events to educate customers on the Companys DSM programs and inform customers and communities about the importance of implementing energy-saving measures in homes and businesses. Additionally, Company representatives positively impact the communities the Company serves through presentations to elementary, middle, and high school students about its programs, wise energy use, and environmental stewardship.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources For example, Project Plant It! is an educational community learning program available to students in the service areas where the Company conducts business. The program teaches students about the importance of trees and how to protect the environment through a variety of hands-on teaching tools such as a website with downloadable classroom lesson plans, instructional videos, and interactive games. To enhance the learning experience, Project Plant It! provides each enrolled student with a redbud tree seedling to plant at home or at school. From 2007 to 2018, more than 500,000 tree seedlings will have been distributed to children in states where the Company operates. According to the Virginia Department of Forestry, this equates to about 1,250 acres of new forest if all of the seedlings are planted and grow to maturity.
DSM Program Communications The Company uses numerous methods to make customers aware of its DSM programs. These methods include direct mail, communications through contractor networks, e-mail, radio ads, social media, and outreach events.
3.2.5    APPROVED DSM PROGRAMS On October 3, 2016, the Company filed for SCC approval (Case No. PUE-2016-00111) of one residential DSM program and one non-residential DSM program. The two proposed programs were the (i) Residential Home Energy Assessment and (ii) Non-Residential Prescriptive Program. In addition, the Company filed for extension of (i) the Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program and (ii) the Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program. On June 1, 2017, the SCC issued its Final Order approving the Non-Residential Prescriptive Program and the continuation of the Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program for five years, and denied the Residential Home Energy Assessment and the continuation of the Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program.
In North Carolina, in Docket No. E-22, Sub 543, the Company filed for approval of the Non-Residential Prescriptive Program. This is the same Program that was approved in Virginia in Case No. PUE-2016-00111. On October 16, 2017, the NCUC approved the new Program, which has been available to qualifying North Carolina customers since January 2018.
Appendix 3M provides program descriptions for the currently active DSM programs. Included in the descriptions are the branded names used for customer communications and marketing plans that the Company is employing, and plans to achieve each programs penetration goals. Appendices 3N, 3O, 3P and 3Q provide the system-level non-coincidental peak savings, coincidental peak savings, energy savings, and penetrations for each approved program.
3.2.6    PROPOSED DSM PROGRAM EXTENSION On October 3, 2017, as part of Case No. PUR-2017-00129, the Company filed for a 5 year extension of the Phase IV Residential Income & Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program. The SCC is expected to issue its Final Order by early June 2018.
3.2.7    EVALUATION, MEASUREMENT & VERIFICATION The Company has implemented evaluation, measurement, and verification (EM&V) plans to quantify the level of energy and demand savings for approved DSM programs in Virginia and North Carolina. As required by the SCC and NCUC, the Company provides annual EM&V reports that include: (i) the actual EM&V data; (ii) the cumulative results for each DSM program in comparison to forecasted annual projections; and (iii) any recommendations or observations following the analysis of the EM&V data. These reports are filed annually with the SCC and NCUC and provide information through the prior calendar year. DNV GL (formerly DNV KEMA Energy & Sustainability),
a third-party vendor, continues to be responsible for developing, executing, and reporting the EM&V results for the Companys currently-approved DSM programs.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 3 - Existing & Proposed Resources In 2017, the SCC held a hearing in Case No. PUR-2017-00047 and issued additional rules and regulations regarding DSM planning and EM&V requirements. The Company will fully comply with all requirements in future DSM proceedings and include the results in future Plans.
3.3 TRANSMISSION RESOURCES 3.3.1      EXISTING TRANSMISSION RESOURCES The Company has approximately 6,600 miles of transmission lines in Virginia, North Carolina, and West Virginia at voltages ranging from 69 kV to 500 kV. These facilities are integrated into PJM.
3.3.2      EXISTING TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LINES North Carolina Plan Addendum 2 contains the list of the Companys existing transmission and distribution lines from the most recently filed Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)
Form 1.
3.3.3      TRANSMISSION PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION A list of the Companys transmission lines and associated facilities that are under construction can be found in Appendix 3R.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan CHAPTER 4 - PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS 4.1 PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS INTRODUCTION In this 2018 Plan, the Company relies upon a number of assumptions including requirements from PJM. This Chapter discusses these assumptions and requirements related to capacity needs, reserves, renewable energy, commodity prices, DSM programs, transmission, and natural gas supply. The Company updates its IRP assumptions annually to maintain a current view of relevant markets, the economy, and regulatory drivers.
4.1.1    VIRGINIA RGGI ASSUMPTIONS For purposes of Plans B, C, and D, the Company assumed that it would be allocated 78% of the total CO2 allowances for Virginia. This is based on the Companys historic average share of the statewide total CO2 emissions. Currently, the DEQ has proposed to allocate an initial set of allowances (vintage 2020) to existing sources (i.e., units that are operational before January 1, 2020) in May 2019 based on average annual 2016 to 2018 generation output (MWh). Post-2020 allocations would be allocated in three-year blocks, beginning with allocations for 2021 to 2023 in May 2020, and updated every three years, based on the previous three years of generation output.
New sources (i.e., operational after January 1, 2020) would not receive allowances until they have amassed three years of output data. There is no set aside proposed for new sources.
4.1.2    SOLAR INTEGRATION COST ASSUMPTIONS A key resource included in this 2018 Plan is solar PV. As discussed in Chapter 5, current solar PV technology produces intermittent energy that is non-dispatchable and subject to sudden changes in generation output and to voltage inconsistencies. Therefore, integrating large volumes of solar PV into the Companys grid presents service reliability challenges that the Company continues to examine and study. In the Alternative Plans described in Chapter 6, a $155/kW fixed charge was phased into the cost of solar PV to function as an estimated charge for transmission and distribution integration costs. Further, a $1.78/MWh variable charge was added to the dispatch price of solar PV generation to address generation re-dispatch costs. A full description of the analysis conducted by the Company to estimate these costs is included in Section 5.1.3.1. It should be emphasized that, although more defined than the proxy costs included in the Companys previous Plans, the solar PV integration costs remain high level estimates. Costs such as advanced communications and control systems, intelligent grid devices, energy storage devices, increased operating reserve costs, natural gas nomination revision costs, and increased equipment operation and maintenance (O&M) costs (due to increased cycling) are not included in these integration cost estimates. The Company continues to assess all costs associated with intermittent generation integration and intends to include those results in future Plans.
4.2 PJM CAPACITY PLANNING PROCESS & RESERVE REQUIREMENTS The Company participates in the PJM capacity planning process for short- and long-term capacity planning. A discussion of this process and the Companys participation in it is provided in the following subsections.
4.2.1    SHORT-TERM CAPACITY PLANNING PROCESS - RPM As a PJM member, the Company is a signatory to PJMs Reliability Assurance Agreement, which obligates the Company to own or procure sufficient capacity to maintain overall system reliability.
PJM determines these obligations for each zone through its annual load forecast and reserve margin guidelines. PJM then conducts a capacity auction through its Short-Term Capacity Planning Process (i.e., the RPM auction) for meeting these requirements three years into the future. This auction process determines the reserve margin and the capacity price for each zone for the delivery year that is three years in the future (e.g., the 2018 auction procures capacity for the delivery year 2021/2022).
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions As a generation provider, the Company bids its capacity resources, including owned and contracted generation and DSM programs, into the RPM auction. As an LSE, the Company is obligated to obtain enough capacity to cover its PJM-determined capacity requirements either from the RPM auction or through any bilateral trades. Figure 4.2.2.1 provides the Companys estimated 2019 to 2020 capacity positions and associated reserve margins based on PJMs 2018 Load Forecast and the RPM auctions that have already been conducted.
4.2.2      LONG-TERM CAPACITY PLANNING PROCESS - RESERVE REQUIREMENTS The Company uses PJMs reserve margin guidelines in conjunction with its own load forecast, as discussed in Chapter 2, to determine its long-term capacity requirement. PJM conducts an annual reserve requirement study to determine an adequate level of capacity in its footprint to meet the target level of reliability measured with a loss of load expectation (LOLE) equivalent to one day of outage in 10 years. PJMs 2017 Reserve Requirement Study for delivery year 2021/2022, recommended using an installed reserve margin (IRM) of 15.9% to satisfy the NERC/Reliability First Corporation (RFC) Adequacy Standard BAL-502-RFC-02, Planning Resource Adequacy Analysis, Assessment, and Documentation.
PJM develops reserve margin estimates for planning years (referred to as delivery years for RPM) rather than calendar years. 23 Specifically, PJMs planning year runs from June 1st to May 31st.
Because the Company and PJM are both historically summer peaking entities, and because the summer period of PJMs planning year coincides with the calendar year summer period, calendar and planning year reserve requirement estimates are determined based on the identical summer time period. For example, the Company uses PJMs 2019/2020 delivery year assumptions for the 2019 calendar year in this 2018 Plan because it represents the expected peak load during the summer of 2019.
Two assumptions were made by the Company when applying the PJM reserve margin to the Companys modeling efforts. First, since PJM uses a shorter planning period than the Company, the Company used the most recent PJM Reserve Requirements Study and assumed the reserve margin value for delivery year 2021 and beyond would continue throughout the Study Period.
The second assumption pertains to the coincident factor between the DOM Zone coincidental and non-coincidental peak load. The Company is obligated to maintain a reserve margin for its portion of the PJM coincidental peak load. Since the Companys peak load (non-coincidental) has not historically occurred during the same hour as PJMs peak load (coincidental), a smaller reserve margin is needed to meet reliability targets and is based on a coincidence factor. To determine the coincidence factor used in this 2018 Plan, the Company used a four-year (2018 to 2021) average of the coincidence factor between the DOM Zone coincidental and non-coincidental peak load. The coincidence factor for the Companys load is approximately 96.47%, as calculated using PJMs 2018 Load Forecast. In 2021, applying the PJM IRM requirement of 15.9% with the Companys coincidence factor of 96.47% resulted in an effective reserve margin of 11.7%, as shown in Figure 4.2.2.1. This effective reserve margin was then used for each year for the remainder of the Study Period.
As a member of PJM, the Company participates in the annual RPM capacity market. PJMs RPM construct has historically resulted in a clearing reserve margin in excess of the planned reserve margin requirement. The average PJM RPM clearing reserve margin is 20.3% over the past five years. 24 Using the same analytical approach described above, this equates to an approximate 15.9% effective reserve requirement. With the RPM clearing capacity in excess of its target level, 23 PJMs current and historical reserve margins are available at http://www.pjm.com/~/media/committees groups/subcommittees/raas/20160927/20160927-2017-pjm-reserve-requirement-study.ashx.
24 See http://www.pjm.com/~/media/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2019-2020-base-residual-auction-report.ashx.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions the Company has purchased reserves in excess of the 11.7% planning reserve margin, as reflected in Figure 4.2.2.1. Given this history, the figures in Appendix 1A display a second capacity requirement that includes an additional 5% reserve requirement target (16.7% reserve margin) that is commensurate with the upper bound where the RPM market has historically cleared.
Nevertheless, the Companys planning reserve margin minimum target remains at the 11.7%
average clearing level. The upper bound reserve margin reflects the reserve margin that the Company may be required to meet in the future.
Figure 4.2.2.1 - Peak Load Forecast & Reserve Requirements PJM Installed      DEV Effective                              Adjusted Total System                      Reserve      Total Resource Reserve Margin    Reserve Margin                        System Summer Year                                          Summer Peak                      Requirement      Requirement Requirements      Requirements                                  Peak
                      %                  %                  MW                  MW        MW                MW 2019        15.90%            11.87%              17,868              17,674    2,098            19,773 2020        15.90%            11.84%              17,968              17,766    2,103            19,869 2021        15.80%            11.75%              18,229              18,026    2,118            20,144 2022        15.80%            11.74%              18,486              18,284    2,147            20,431 2023        15.80%            11.74%              18,762              18,559    2,179            20,738 2024        15.80%            11.74%              19,227              19,025    2,234            21,259 2025        15.80%            11.74%              19,551              19,351    2,272            21,624 2026        15.80%            11.74%              19,880              19,682    2,311            21,993 2027        15.80%            11.74%              20,097              19,899    2,337            22,236 2028        15.80%            11.74%              20,292              20,093    2,359            22,453 2029        15.80%            11.74%              20,587              20,389    2,394            22,784 2030        15.80%            11.74%              20,931              20,733    2,435            23,168 2031        15.80%            11.74%              21,167              20,967    2,462            23,429 2032        15.80%            11.74%              21,334              21,133    2,482            23,615 2033        15.80%            11.74%              21,499              21,297    2,501            23,798 Note: Values include energy efficiency.
In Figure 4.2.2.1, the total resource requirement provides the total amount of peak capacity including the reserve margin used in this 2018 Plan. This represents the Companys total resource need that must be met through existing resources, construction of new resources, DSM programs, and market capacity purchases. Actual reserve margins in each year may vary based upon the outcome of the forward RPM auctions, revisions to the PJM RPM rules, and annually updated load and reserve requirements. Appendix 2I provides a summary of summer and winter peak load and energy forecast, while Appendix 2J provides a summary of projected PJM reserve margins for summer peak demand.
4.3 RENEWABLE ENERGY 4.3.1      VIRGINIA RPS On May 18, 2010, the SCC issued its Final Order granting the Companys July 28, 2009 application to participate in Virginias voluntary Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards (RPS) program finding that the Company has demonstrated that it has a reasonable expectation of achieving 12% of its base year electric energy sales from renewable energy sources during calendar year 2022, and 15%
of its base year electric energy sales from renewable energy sources during calendar year 2025 (Case No. PUE-2009-00082, May 18, 2010 Final Order at 7). The RPS guidelines state that a certain percent of the Companys energy is to be obtained from renewable resources. The Company can meet Virginias RPS program guidelines through the generation of renewable energy, purchase of renewable energy, purchase of RECs, or a combination of these three options. Figure 4.3.1.1 displays Virginias RPS goals.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions Figure 4.3.1.1 - Virginia RPS Goals Year                  Percent of RPS                    Annual GWh1 2017-2021      Average of 7% of Base Year Sales              3,032 2022              12% of Base Year Sales                  5,198 2023-2024      Average of 12% of Base Year Sales              5,198 2025              15% of Base Year Sales                  6,497 2026-2017            15% of Base Year Sales                  6,497 Note: 1) Base year sales are equal to 2007 Virginia jurisdictional retail sales, minus 2004 to 2006 average nuclear generation. Actual goals are based on MWh.
The Company has included renewable resources as an option in PLEXOS, taking into consideration the economics and RPS requirements. If there are adequate supplies of waste wood, VCHEC is expected to provide up to 61 MW of renewable generation by 2021.
The Company achieved its 2016 Virginia RPS Goal. The Company reiterates its intent to meet Virginias RPS guidelines at a reasonable cost and in a prudent manner by: (i) applying renewable energy from existing generating facilities including NUGs; (ii) purchasing cost-effective RECs (including optimizing RECs produced by Company-owned generation (i.e., when higher priced RECs are sold into the market and less expensive RECs are purchased and applied to the Companys RPS goals); and (iii) constructing new renewable resources when and where feasible.
The renewable energy requirements for Virginia and North Carolina and their totals are shown in Figure 4.3.1.2.
Figure 4.3.1.2 - Renewable Energy Requirements 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 GWh 4,000 3,000 VA RPS 2,000                                                                      NC REPS Total 1,000 0
2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023    2024    2025    2026      2027      2028 4.3.2    NORTH CAROLINA REPS NCGS &sect; 62-133.8 requires the Company to comply with the states Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (REPS) requirements. The REPS requirements can be met by generating renewable energy, energy efficiency measures (capped at 25% of the REPS requirements through 2020 and 40% thereafter), purchasing renewable energy, purchasing RECs, or a combination of options as permitted by NCGS &sect; 62-133.8 (b) (2). The Company plans to meet 55
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions a portion of the general REPS requirement using the approved energy efficiency programs discussed in Chapters 3 and 5 of this 2018 Plan.
Figure 4.3.2.1 displays North Carolinas overall REPS requirements. Additionally, as part of the total REPS requirements, North Carolina requires certain renewable set-aside provisions for solar energy, swine waste, and poultry waste resources, as shown in Figures 4.3.2.2, 4.3.2.3, and 4.3.2.4.
Figure 4.3.2.1 - North Carolina Total REPS Requirement Year                    Percent of REPS                  Annual GWh1 2018            10% of 2017 DENC Retail Sales                    415 2019            10% of 2018 DENC Retail Sales                    417 2020            10% of 2019 DENC Retail Sales                    419 2021          12.5% of 2020 DENC Retail Sales                  526 2022          12.5% of 2021 DENC Retail Sales                  529 2023          12.5% of 2022 DENC Retail Sales                  533 2024          12.5% of 2023 DENC Retail Sales                  536 2025          12.5% of 2024 DENC Retail Sales                  539 2026          12.5% of 2025 DENC Retail Sales                  542 2027          12.5% of 2026 DENC Retail Sales                  546 2028          12.5% of 2027 DENC Retail Sales                  549 Note: 1) Annual GWh is an estimate only based on the latest forecast sales. The Company intends to comply with the North Carolina REPS requirements, including the set-asides for energy derived from solar, poultry waste, and swine waste through the purchase of RECs and/or purchased energy, as applicable. The set-aside requirements represent approximately 0.03% of system load by 2024 and will not materially alter this 2018 Plan.
Figure 4.3.2.2 - North Carolina Solar Requirement Year                Requirement Target (%)                Annual GWh1 2018          0.20% of 2017 DENC Retail Sales                  8.30 2019          0.20% of 2018 DENC Retail Sales                  8.33 2020          0.20% of 2019 DENC Retail Sales                  8.37 2021          0.20% of 2020 DENC Retail Sales                  8.42 2022          0.20% of 2021 DENC Retail Sales                  8.47 2023          0.20% of 2022 DENC Retail Sales                  8.52 2024          0.20% of 2023 DENC Retail Sales                  8.57 2025          0.20% of 2024 DENC Retail Sales                  8.63 2026          0.20% of 2025 DENC Retail Sales                  8.68 2027          0.20% of 2026 DENC Retail Sales                  8.73 2028          0.20% of 2027 DENC Retail Sales                  8.78 Notes: 1) Annual GWh is an estimate based on latest forecast sales.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions Figure 4.3.2.3 - North Carolina Swine Waste Requirement DENC Year                              Target1                      Market Share            Annual GWh (Est.)
2018                0.07% of 2017 NC Retail Sales                  3.02%                    2.87 2019                0.07% of 2018 NC Retail Sales                  3.00%                    2.89 2020                0.14% of 2019 NC Retail Sales                  2.99%                    5.81 2021                0.14% of 2020 NC Retail Sales                  2.98%                    5.85 2022                0.14% of 2021 NC Retail Sales                  2.96%                    5.88 2023                0.20% of 2022 NC Retail Sales                  2.95%                    8.46 2024                0.20% of 2023 NC Retail Sales                  2.94%                    8.51 2025                0.20% of 2024 NC Retail Sales                  2.93%                    8.56 2026                0.20% of 2025 NC Retail Sales                  2.92%                    8.64 2027                0.20% of 2026 NC Retail Sales                  2.91%                    8.69 2028                0.20% of 2027 NC Retail Sales                  2.89%                    8.75 Note: 1) Annual GWh is an estimate based on the latest forecast sales.
Figure 4.3.2.4 - North Carolina Poultry Waste Requirement DENC Target Year                                  Market Share          Annual GWh1 (GWh)
(Est.)
2018                    700                3.02%                    21.13 2019                    900                3.00%                    27.00 2020                    900                2.99%                    26.89 2021                    900                2.98%                    26.78 2022                    900                2.96%                    26.68 2023                    900                2.95%                    26.57 2024                    900                2.94%                    26.47 2025                    900                2.93%                    26.36 2026                    900                2.92%                    26.26 2027                    900                2.91%                    26.15 2028                    900                2.89%                    26.05 Note: 1) For purposes of this filing, the Poultry Waste Resource requirement is calculated as an aggregate target for NC electric suppliers distributed based on market share. On April 18, 2016, the NCUC established a procedure to allocate the poultry waste set-aside by averaging three years of historical retail sales and using the resulting load share ratio for the following three years.
The Company achieved compliance with its 2016 North Carolina REPS general obligation by using approved North Carolina energy efficiency savings and banked RECs, and by purchasing additional qualified RECs. In addition, the Company purchased sufficient RECs to comply with the solar and poultry waste set-aside requirements. However, on October 16, 2017, in response to the Joint Motion to Modify and Delay, the NCUC delayed the Companys 2017 swine waste set-aside requirement one year and delayed the poultry waste set-aside requirement increase for one year.
More information regarding the Companys REPS compliance planning is available in its North Carolina REPS Compliance Plan filed in North Carolina with this 2018 Plan as North Carolina Plan Addendum 1.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions 4.4 COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS The Company utilizes a single source to provide multiple scenarios for the commodity price forecast to ensure consistency in methodologies and assumptions. The Company performed the analysis in this 2018 Plan using energy and commodity price forecasts provided by ICF in all periods except the first 36 months of the Study Period. The forecasts used for natural gas, coal, and power prices rely on forward market prices as of December 29, 2017, for the first 18 months of the Study Period and then blended forward prices with ICF estimates for the next 18 months. Beyond the first 36 months, the Company used the ICF commodity price forecast exclusively. The forecast used for capacity prices are provided by ICF for all years forecasted within this 2018 Plan. The capacity prices are provided on a calendar year basis and reflect the results of the PJM RPM Base Residual Auction through the 2020/2021 delivery year, thereafter transitioning to the ICF capacity forecast beginning with the 2021/2022 delivery year.
The key assumptions on market structure and the use of an integrated, internally-consistent fundamentals-based modeling methodology remain consistent with those utilized in the prior years commodity forecasts. In the 2018 Plan, the Company utilizes three commodity forecasts to evaluate the Plan(s). The three forecasts used in the Plan are the Federal CO2 commodity forecast, the No CO2 Tax commodity forecast, and the Virginia RGGI commodity forecast.
4.4.1      FEDERAL CO2 COMMODITY FORECAST The Federal CO2 commodity forecast was developed for the Company to address a future market environment where carbon regulations affect electric generation plants. The Company utilized this commodity forecast in the analysis of Plan E. Utilizing the Federal CO2 commodity forecast allows the Company to evaluate Plan E using a commodity price forecast that reflects ICFs independent view of future market conditions including potential regulations on carbon emissions from electric generation activities. ICFs independent internal views of key market drivers include: (i) market structure and policy elements that shape allowance; (ii) fuel and power markets ranging from expected capacity and pollution control installations; (iii) environmental regulations; and (iv) fuel supply-side issues. The development process assesses the impact of environmental regulations on the power and fuel markets and incorporates ICFs latest views on the outcome of new regulatory initiatives. The Federal CO2 commodity forecast provides prices for fuel, energy, capacity, emission allowances, and RECs.
In the Federal CO2 commodity forecast, the assumptions for CO2 regulation represent a probability weighted outcome of legislative and regulatory initiatives, including the possibility of no regulatory program addressing CO2 emissions. A charge on CO2 emissions from the power sector is assumed to begin in 2026.
The Federal CO2 commodity forecast considers three potential outcomes. The first possible outcome considers a $0/ton CO2 price; the second possible outcome considers a tradable mass-based program (i.e., limit on tonnage of CO2 emissions) on existing and new sources; and a third possible outcome considers a more stringent legislative approach.
The $0/ton price under the first possible outcome can be thought of as either no-program or a behind-the-fence requirement without a market-based CO2 price.
The second possible outcome is considered a mid case approach to carbon regulation that reflects a delay in the implementation of the CPP. While it is likely that a replacement for the CPP promulgated under a future regulation would include different requirements, ICF relies on the requirements of this representative mid case for future CO2 regulations of the power sector. This representation assumes that states adopt mass-based standards within a regional trading structure.
It assumes that California and RGGI states address leakage by including new sources, while remaining regions only include existing sources and address leakage through alternative measures.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions This representation also assumes RGGI and the California-specific programs continue as individual programs.
The third possible outcomea high case approachassumes a legislative approach to a national mass cap-and-trade program that begins in 2028 and targets an approximately 80% reduction from 2005 sector emissions by 2050. This target is similar to levels being discussed by several states, and it is consistent with what was proposed under the Waxman-Markey Bill. The high case includes existing and new sources under a national cap and trade program. This representation assumes that all states participate in the program except for California, which maintains its state specific program.
In 2030, the Federal CO2 commodity forecast assumed a 40% probability for the $0/ton outcome, a 50% probability of a mid case type program and a 10% probability for the high case legislative mass cap based program. By 2040, the probability of a CO2 price by means of the mid and high case programs increases to 85%. The resulting CO2 price forecast rises from a little over $3.50/ton (nominal $) in 2030 to over $20/ton in 2040 in the Federal CO2 commodity forecast.
Comparisons of the Federal CO2 commodity forecast used in this 2018 Plan and the CPP commodity forecast used in the 2017 Plan are provided below. Figures 4.4.1.1 through 4.4.1.5 display the fuel price forecasts, while Figure 4.4.1.6 displays the forecasted price for SO2 and NOx on a dollar per ton basis. Figure 4.4.1.7 displays CO2 emissions allowances ($/ton). Figures 4.4.1.8 and 4.4.1.9 present the forecasted market clearing price for peak and off peak power prices for the DOM Zone. The PJM RTO capacity price forecast is presented in Figure 4.4.1.10. Appendix 4B provides delivered fuel prices and primary fuel expense from the PLEXOS model output using the Federal CO2 commodity forecast.
Figure 4.4.1.1 - Fuel Price Forecasts - Natural Gas Henry Hub
                                $7
                                $6
                                $5 Nominal $/MMbtu
                                $4
                                $3
                                $2
                                $1
                                $0 Henry Hub (2017 CPP)        Henry Hub (2018 Federal CO2) 59
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions Figure 4.4.1.2 - Fuel Price Forecasts - Natural Gas DOM Zone
                        $7
                        $6
                        $5 Nominal $/MMbtu
                        $4
                        $3
                        $2
                        $1
                        $0 Dom Zn (2017 CPP)              Dom Zn (2018 Federal CO2)
Figure 4.4.1.3 - Fuel Price Forecasts - Coal 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 Nominal $/MMbtu 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 CAPP CSX 12,500 1% FOB (2017 CPP)    CAPP CSX 12,500 1% FOB (2018 Federal CO2) 60
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions Figure 4.4.1.4 - Fuel Price Forecasts - #2 Oil
                      $30
                      $25
                      $20 Nominal $/MMbtu
                      $15
                      $10
                      $5
                      $0 No 2 NYMEX (2017 CPP)              No 2 NYMEX (2018 Federal CO2)
Figure 4.4.1.5 - Fuel Price Forecasts - #6 Oil
                      $18
                      $16
                      $14
                      $12 Nominal $/MMbtu
                      $10
                      $8
                      $6
                      $4
                      $2
                      $0 Resid (6 Oil) NYH 1% (2017 CPP)        Resid (6 Oil) NYH 1% (2018 Federal CO2) 61
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions Figure 4.4.1.6 - Allowance Price Forecasts - SO2 & NOX
                                            $12
                                            $10
                                            $8 Nominal $/Ton
                                            $6
                                            $4
                                            $2
                                            $0 CAIR/CSAPR Annual NOX (2017 CPP)                CAIR/CSAPR Annual NOX (2018 Federal CO2)
CAIR/CSAPR SO2 Group 1 (2017 CPP)              CAIR/CSAPR SO2 Group 1 (2018 Federal CO2)
Figure 4.4.1.7 - Allowance Price Forecasts - CO2
                                            $9
                                            $8
                                            $7 Nominal $/Ton - $/MWh
                                            $6
                                            $5
                                            $4
                                            $3
                                            $2
                                            $1
                                            $0 Carbon (2017 CPP)    Carbon (2018 Federal CO2)        ERC (2017 CPP)
Note: The Federal CO2 commodity forecast used in the 2018 Plan includes a CO2 allowance price on a per ton basis. In the 2017 Plan, the commodity forecast modeled a CPP-type carbon regulation program. In such a program, there would be both emission rate credit forecast
($/MWh), which applies to states adopting an intensity-based compliance program, and a CO2 allowance price forecast ($/ton), which applies to states adopting a mass-based compliance program. The Federal CO2 commodity forecast did not include an emission rate credit forecast because it assumes that states will adopt mass-based compliance programs.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions Figure 4.4.1.8 - Power Price Forecasts - On Peak
                $70
                $60
                $50 Nominal $/MWh
                $40
                $30
                $20
                $10
                $0 DOM Zn VP On Peak (2017 CPP)        DOM Zn VP On Peak (2018 Federal CO2)
Figure 4.4.1.9 - Power Price Forecasts - Off Peak
                $60
                $50
                $40 Nominal $/MWh
                $30
                $20
                $10
                $0 DOM Zn VP Off Peak (2017 CPP)        DOM Zn VP Off Peak (2018 Federal CO2) 63
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions Figure 4.4.1.10 - PJM RTO Capacity Price Forecasts
                                $100
                                $90
                                $80
                                $70 Nominal $/KW-Year
                                $60
                                $50
                                $40
                                $30
                                $20
                                $10
                                  $0 RTO Capacity Price (2017 CPP)        RTO Capacity Price (2018 Federal CO2)
The forecast of power and gas prices are lower this year than forecasted in the 2017 Plan. Lower power prices result from a combination of factors, most notably lower gas prices and lower load growth forecasts. Lower gas prices reflect the decrease in cost and increase in volume of the shale gas resources and, over the longer term, the revised assumption that nuclear units are likely to renew their licenses to 80 years. Capacity prices are also lower, reflecting the results of the last auction and the reduction of the assumed risk premium penalties. Figure 4.4.1.11 presents a comparison of average fuel, electric, and REC prices used in the 2017 Plan relative to those used in this 2018 Plan.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions Figure 4.4.1.11 - 2017 Plan to 2018 Plan Fuel & Power Price Comparison Planning Period Comparison Average Value (Nominal $)
2017 Plan              2018 Plan CPP Commodity            Federal CO2 Fuel Price                                Forecast 3        Commodity Forecast 3 Henry Hub Natural Gas 1 ($/MMbtu)            5.05                    4.29 DOM Zone Delivered Natural Gas 1 ($/MMbtu)              4.71                    3.99 CAPP CSX: 12,500 1%S FOB ($/MMbtu)                    2.41                    2.66 No. 2 Oil ($/MMbtu)        17.48                    18.52 1% No. 6 Oil ($/MMbtu)          11.22                    11.93 Electric and REC Prices PJM-DOM On-Peak ($/MWh)                48.05                    41.29 PJM-DOM Off-Peak ($/MWh)              38.91                    34.36 PJM Tier 1 REC Prices ($/MWh)              15.32                    7.04 RTO Capacity Prices 2 ($/kW-yr)            68.79                    59.33 Note: 1) DOM Zone natural gas price used as a representative gas price for Virginia. Henry Hub prices are shown to provide market reference.
: 2) Capacity price represents actual clearing price from PJM Reliability Pricing Model. Base Residual Auction results through power year 2019/2020 for the 2017 Plan and 2020/2021 for the 2018 Plan.
: 3) 2017 Planning Period 2018 - 2032, 2018 Planning Period 2019 - 2033.
4.4.2        ADDITIONAL COMMODITY PRICES The alternative commodity price forecasts represent reasonable outcomes for future commodity prices based on alternate views of key fundamental drivers of commodity prices. However, as with all forecasts, there remain multiple possible outcomes for future prices that fall outside of the commodity prices developed for this Plan. History has shown that unforeseen events, and events not contemplated 5 or 10 years before their occurrence, can result in significant changes in market fundamentals. A recent example is the shale gas revolution that transformed the pricing structure of natural gas. Another recent example is the retirement of numerous, coal-fueled generation units, in response to low gas prices, an aging coal fleet, and environmental compliance cost.
The effects of unforeseen events should be considered when evaluating the viability of long-term planning objectives. The commodity price forecasts analyzed in this 2018 Plan present reasonably likely outcomes given the current understanding of market fundamentals, but do not present all possible outcomes. In this 2018 Plan, the Company has included a comprehensive risk analysis that provides a more robust assessment of possible price forecast outcomes. A description of this analysis is included in Chapter 6.
The Company utilizes the No CO2 Tax commodity forecast to evaluate Plan A, which anticipates a future without any new regulations or restrictions on CO2 emissions. In this forecast, the cost associated with carbon emissions is removed from the commodity forecast. DOM Zone peak energy prices are slightly lower than the Federal CO2 commodity forecast across the Planning Period as there is no CO2 cost to pass through to power prices. To be clear, the Company expects that some form of GHG regulations or legislation will occur and plans accordingly. The No CO2 Tax forecast is only utilized in analysis of Plan A, which is used to measure the cost of GHG program compliance.
The Company utilizes the Virginia RGGI commodity forecast to evaluate Alternative Plans B, C, and D. The Virginia RGGI forecast assumes that Virginia joins RGGI (either directly or indirectly through the Virginia RGGI Program). The primary reason for developing this forecast was to allow the Company to evaluate the Alternative Plans compliant with Virginia RGGI or RGGI using a commodity price forecast that reflects Virginia linking to RGGI. The key assumptions on market 65
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions structure and the use of an integrated, internally-consistent fundamental based modeling methodology remain consistent with those utilized in the Federal CO2 commodity forecast except that the carbon program modeled is RGGI, which begins in 2020, and that there is no national program as used in the Federal CO2 commodity forecast.
Appendix 4A provides the annual prices (nominal $) for the Federal CO2 commodity forecast, the No CO2 Tax commodity forecast, and the Virginia RGGI commodity forecast. Figure 4.4.2.1 provides a comparison of the Federal CO2 commodity forecast, the No CO2 Tax commodity forecast, and the Virginia RGGI commodity forecast.
Figure 4.4.2.1 - 2018 Plan Fuel & Power Price Comparison 2019 - 2033 Average Value (Nominal $)
Federal CO2      Virginia RGGI      No CO2 Tax Commodity        Commodity          Commodity Forecast          Forecast          Forecast Fuel Price Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMbtu)      4.29              4.29              4.29 DOM Zone Delivered Natural Gas ($/MMbtu)      3.99              3.88              3.99 CAPP CSX: 12,500 1%S FOB ($/MMbtu)          2.66              2.67              2.67 No. 2 Oil ($/MMbtu)    18.52              18.52              18.52 1% No. 6 Oil ($/MMbtu)    11.93              11.93              11.93 Electric and REC Prices PJM-DOM On-Peak ($/MWh)        41.29              41.12              40.63 PJM-DOM Off-Peak ($/MWh)        34.36              34.11              33.80 PJM Tier 1 REC Prices ($/MWh)      7.04              9.06              9.19 RTO Capacity Prices ($/kW-yr)    59.33              60.37            60.76 4.5 DEVELOPMENT OF DSM PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS The Company develops assumptions for new DSM programs by engaging vendors through a competitive bid process to submit proposals for candidate program design and implementation services. As part of the bid process, basic program design parameters and descriptions of candidate programs are requested. The Company generally prefers, to the extent practical, that the program design vendor is ultimately the same vendor that implements the program in order to maintain as much continuity as possible from design to implementation.
The DSM program design process includes evaluating programs as either single measure, like the former Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program, or multi-measure, like the Small Business Improvement Program. For all measures in a program, the design vendor develops a baseline for a standard customer end-use technology. The baseline establishes the current energy usage for a particular appliance or customer end-use. Next, assumptions for a more efficient replacement measure or end-use are developed. The difference between the more efficient energy end-use and the standard end-use provides the incremental benefit that the Company and customer will achieve if the more efficient energy end-use is implemented.
The program design vendors development of assumptions for a DSM program include determining cost estimates for the incremental customer investment in the more efficient technology, the incentive that the Company should pay the customer to encourage investment in the efficient technology, and the program cost the Company will likely incur to administer the program. In addition to the cost assumptions for the program, the program design vendor develops incremental demand and energy reductions associated with the program. This data is represented in the form of a load shape for energy efficiency programs that identifies the energy reductions by hour for each hour of the year (8,760 hour load shape).
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions The Company then uses the program assumptions developed by the program design vendor to perform cost/benefit tests for the programs. The Company looks at the results of all of the cost/benefit test scores, as well as NPV results, to evaluate whether to file for regulatory approval of a potential program or program extension.
4.6 TRANSMISSION PLANNING The Companys transmission planning process, system adequacy, transfer capabilities, and transmission interconnection process are described in the following subsections. As used in this 2018 Plan, electric transmission facilities can be generally defined as those operating at 69 kV and above that provide for the interchange of power within and outside of the Companys system.
4.6.1      REGIONAL TRANSMISSION PLANNING & SYSTEM ADEQUACY The Companys transmission system is designed and operated to ensure adequate and reliable service to customers while meeting all regulatory requirements and standards. Specifically, the Companys transmission system is developed to comply with the NERC Reliability Standards, as well as the Southeastern Reliability Corporation supplements to the NERC Standards.
The Company participates in numerous regional, inter-regional, and sub-regional studies to assess the reliability and adequacy of the interconnected transmission system. The Company is a member of PJM, an RTO responsible for the movement of wholesale electricity. PJM is registered with NERC as the Companys planning coordinator and transmission planner. Accordingly, the Company participates in the PJM regional transmission expansion plan (RTEP) to develop the RTO-wide transmission plan for PJM.
The PJM RTEP covers the entire PJM control area and includes projects proposed by PJM, as well as projects proposed by the Company and other PJM members through internal planning processes.
The PJM RTEP process includes both a 5-year and a 15-year outlook.
The Company evaluates its ability to support expected customer growth through its internal transmission planning process. The results of this evaluation will indicate if any transmission improvements are needed, which the Company includes in the PJM RTEP process as appropriate.
If the need is confirmed, then the Company seeks approval for the transmission improvements from the appropriate regulatory body.
Additionally, the Company performs seasonal operating studies to identify facilities in its transmission system that could be critical during the upcoming season. The Company coordinates with neighboring utilities to maintain adequate levels of transfer capability to facilitate economic and emergency power flows.
4.6.2      STATION SECURITY As part of the Companys overall strategy to improve its transmission system resiliency and security, the Company continues to install additional physical security measures at substations and switching stations in Virginia and North Carolina. The Company announced these plans following the widely-reported April 2013 Metcalfe Substation incident in California.
As one of the regions largest electricity suppliers, the Company formulated a plan to increase the security and resilience of its transmission substations and other critical infrastructure against man-made physical or cyber threats and natural disasters, and to procure mobile response equipment and stockpile crucial equipment for major damage recovery. These new security facilities will be installed in accordance with recently-approved NERC mandatory compliance standards. In addition, the Company has completed construction of its new System Operations Center, which was commissioned and became operational in August 2017.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions 4.6.3      TRANSMISSION INTERCONNECTIONS For any new generation proposed within the Companys transmission system, either by the Company or by other parties, the generation owner files an interconnection request with PJM. PJM, in conjunction with the Company, conducts feasibility studies, system impact studies, and facilities studies to determine the facilities required to interconnect the generation to the transmission system (Figure 4.6.3.1). These studies ensure deliverability of the generation into the PJM market. The scope of these studies is provided in the applicable sections of PJM Manual 14A 25 and the Companys Facility Connection Requirements.26 The results of these studies provide the requesting interconnection customer with an assessment of the feasibility and costs (both interconnection facilities and network upgrades) to interconnect the proposed facilities to the PJM system, which includes the Companys transmission system.
Figure 4.6.3.1 - PJM Interconnection Request Process Source: PJM The Companys planning objectives include analyzing planning options for transmission, as part of the IRP process, and providing results from this process that become inputs to the PJM planning process. In order to accomplish this goal, the Company must comply and coordinate with a variety of regulatory groups, including NERC, PJM, FERC, the SCC, and the NCUC, that address reliability, grid expansion, and costs . In evaluating and developing this process, balance among regulations, reliability, and costs are critical to providing service to the Companys customers in all aspects, which includes generation and transmission services.
The Company also evaluates and analyzes transmission options for siting potential generation resources to offer flexibility and additional grid benefits. The Company conducts power flow studies and financial analysis to determine interconnection requirements for new supply-side resources.
The Company uses Promod IV, which performs security-constrained unit commitment and dispatch, to consider the proposed and planned supply-side resources and transmission facilities.
Promod IV incorporates extensive details in generating unit operating characteristics, transmission grid topology and constraints, unit commitment/operating conditions, and market system operations, and is the industry-leading fundamental electric market simulation software.
The Promod IV model enables the Company to integrate the transmission and generation system planning to: (i) analyze the zonal and nodal level locational marginal pricing (LMP) impact of new resources and transmission facilities; (ii) calculate the value of new facilities due to the alleviation of system constraints; and (iii) perform transmission congestion analysis. The model is utilized to determine the most beneficial location for new supply-side resources in order to optimize the future need for both generation and transmission facilities, while providing reliable service to all customers.
25 The PJM Manual 14A is posted at http://www.pjm.com/~/media/documents/manuals/m14a.ashx.
26 The Companys Facility Connection Requirements are posted at https://www.dominionenergy.com/library/domcom/media/large business/selling-power-to-dominion-energy/parallel-generation-and-interconnection/facility-connection-requirements.pdf.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions The Promod IV model evaluates the impact of resources under development that are selected by the PLEXOS model.
Historically, the Promod IV and Power System Simulator for Engineering were utilized to evaluate the impact of future generation retirements on the reliability of the DOM Zone transmission grid.
These evaluations are ongoing and not yet complete for the units identified as candidates for retirement and included in this 2018 Plan. At this stage, the Company has no definitive plans regarding any generating unit retirement.
4.7 GAS SUPPLY, ADEQUACY, & RELIABILITY In maintaining its diverse generating portfolio, the Company manages a balanced mix of fuels that includes fossil, nuclear, and renewable resources. Specifically, the Companys fleet includes units powered by natural gas, coal, petroleum, uranium, biomass (waste wood), water, and solar. This balanced and diversified fuel management approach supports the Companys efforts in meeting its customers growing demand by responsibly and cost-effectively managing risk. By avoiding overreliance on any single fuel source, the Company protects its customers from rate volatility and other harms associated with shifting regulatory requirements, commodity price volatility, and reliability concerns.
Electric Power and Natural Gas Interdependency With a production shift from conventional to an expanded array of unconventional gas sources (such as shale) and relatively low commodity price forecasts, natural gas-fired generation continues to be a competitive choice for new capacity.
However, the electric grids exposure to interruptions in natural gas fuel supply and delivery has increased with the generating capacitys growing dependence on a single fuel. Natural gas is largely delivered on a justintime basis, and vulnerabilities in gas supply and transportation must be sufficiently evaluated from a planning and reliability perspective. Mitigating strategies such as storage, firm fuel contracts, alternate pipelines, dual-fuel capability, access to multiple natural gas basins, and overall fuel diversity all help to alleviate this risk.
There are two types of pipeline delivery service contracts: firm and interruptible. Natural gas provided under a firm service contract is available to the customer at all times during the contract term and is not subject to a prior claim from another customer. For a firm service contract, the customer typically pays a facilities charge representing the customers share of the capacity construction cost and a fixed monthly capacity reservation charge. Interruptible service contracts provide the customer with natural gas subject to the contractual rights of firm customers. The Company currently uses a combination of both firm and interruptible service to fuel its natural gas-fired generation fleet. As the percentage of natural gas use increases in terms of both energy and capacity, the Company intends to increase its use of firm transport capacity to help ensure reliability and price stability.
Pipeline deliverability can impact electrical system reliability. A physical disruption to a pipeline or compressor station can interrupt or reduce the flow pressure of gas supply to multiple EGUs at once.
Electrical systems also have the ability to adversely impact pipeline reliability. The sudden loss of a large efficient generator can cause numerous smaller gas-fired CTs to be started in a short period of time. This sudden change in demand may cause drops in pipeline pressure that could reduce the quality of service to other pipeline customers, including other generators. Electric transmission system disturbances may also interrupt service to electric gas compressor stations, which can disrupt the fuel supply to electric generators.
As a result, the Company routinely assesses the natural gas-fueled reliability of its system. The results of these assessments show that current interruptions on any single pipeline are manageable.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 4 - Planning Assumptions But as the Company and the electric industry continue to shift to a heavier reliance on natural gas, additional actions are needed to ensure future reliability and rate stability. Additionally, equipping future gas-fired resources with backup fueling options may be needed to further enhance the reliability of the electric system.
System Planning In general, electric transmission service providers maintain, plan, design, and construct systems that meet federally-mandated NERC Reliability Standards and other requirements, and that are capable of serving forecasted customer demands and load growth. A well-designed electrical grid, with numerous points of interconnection and facilities designed to respond to contingency conditions, results in a flexible, robust electrical delivery system.
In contrast, pipelines generally are constructed to meet new load growth. FERC does not authorize new pipeline capacity unless customers have already committed to it via firm delivery contracts, and pipelines are prohibited from charging the cost of new capacity to their existing customer base.
Thus, in order for a pipeline to add or expand facilities, existing or new customers must request additional firm service. The resulting new pipeline capacity closely matches the requirements of the new firm capacity request. If the firm customers accept all of the gas under their respective contracts, little or no excess pipeline capacity will be available for interruptible customers. This is a major difference between natural gas pipeline infrastructure construction and electric transmission system planningthe electric system is expanded to address current or projected system conditions and the costs are typically socialized across customers.
Actions The Company is aware of the risks associated with natural gas deliverability and has been proactive in mitigating these risks. For example, the Company continues to secure firm natural gas pipeline transportation service for all of the newer CC facilities, including the Bear Garden, Warren County, and Brunswick County Power Stations, as well as the Greensville County Power Station, which is currently under construction. As an additional example, the Company has executed a precedent agreement to secure firm transportation services on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, which will supply natural gas to strategic points in the Companys service territory. Additionally, the Company maintains a portfolio of firm gas transportation to serve a portion of its remaining gas generation fleet.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan CHAPTER 5 - FUTURE RESOURCES 5.1 FUTURE SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCES The Company continues to monitor and gather information about potential and emerging generation technologies from a mix of internal and external sources. The Companys internal knowledge base spans various departments including, but not limited to, planning, financial analysis, construction, operations, and business development. The dispatchable and non-dispatchable resources examined in this 2018 Plan are defined and discussed in the following subsections.
5.1.1      ASSESSMENT OF SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCE ALTERNATIVES The process of selecting alternative resource types starts with the identification and review of the characteristics of available and emerging technologies, as well as any applicable statutory requirements. Next, the Company analyzes the current commercial status and market acceptance of the alternative resources. This analysis includes determining whether particular alternatives are feasible in the short- or long-term based on the availability of resources or fuel within the Companys service territory or PJM. The technologys ability to be dispatched is based on whether the resource is able to alter its output up or down in an economical fashion to balance the Companys constantly changing demand and supply conditions. Further, the analysis of the alternative resources requires consideration of the viability of the resource technologies available to the Company. This step identifies the risks that technology investment could create for the Company and its customers, such as site identification, development, infrastructure, and fuel procurement risks.
The feasibility of both conventional and alternative generation resources is considered in utility-grade projects based on capital and operating expenses including fuel, operation, and maintenance.
Figure 5.1.1.1 summarizes the resource types that the Company reviewed as part of this IRP process. Those resources considered for further analysis in the busbar screening model are identified in the final column.
Figure 5.1.1.1 - Alternative Supply-Side Resources Busbar Resource                Unit Type      Dispatchable Primary Fuel Resource Aero-derivative CT                      Peak            Yes      Natural Gas      Yes Batteries                              Peak            Yes          Varies        No Biomass                              Baseload          Yes      Renewable        Yes CC 1x1                        Intermediate/Baseload    Yes      Natural Gas      Yes CC 2x1                        Intermediate/Baseload    Yes      Natural Gas      Yes CC 3x1                        Intermediate/Baseload    Yes      Natural Gas      No CFB                                  Baseload          Yes          Coal          No Coal (SCPC) w/ CCS                Intermediate        Yes          Coal          Yes Coal (SCPC) w/o CCS                  Baseload          Yes          Coal          No CT                                      Peak            Yes      Natural Gas      Yes Fuel Cell                            Baseload          Yes      Natural Gas      Yes Hydro Power                        Intermittent        No      Renewable        No IGCC CCS                          Intermediate        Yes          Coal          Yes IGCC w/o CCS                        Baseload          Yes          Coal          No Nuclear                              Baseload          Yes        Uranium        Yes Offshore Wind                      Intermittent        No      Renewable        Yes Onshore Wind                        Intermittent        No      Renewable        Yes Pumped Storage                          Peak            Yes      Renewable        No Reciprocating Engine CT                Peak            Yes      Natural Gas      No Solar PV                            Intermittent        No      Renewable        Yes Solar PV w/Aero-derivative CT          Peak            Yes      Renewable        Yes SMR                                  Baseload          Yes        Uranium        No 71
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources The resources not included as busbar resources for further analysis faced barriers such as the feasibility of the resource in the Companys service territory, the stage of technological development, and the availability of reasonable cost information. Although such resources were not considered in this 2018 Plan, the Company will continue monitoring all technologies that could best meet the energy needs of its customers.
5.1.2      DISPATCHABLE RESOURCES Aero-derivative Combustion Turbine Aero-derivative CT technology consists of a gas generator that has been derived from an existing aircraft engine and used in an industrial application. Designed for a small footprint and low weight using modular construction, aero-derivative CTs utilize advanced materials for high efficiency, fast start-up times with little or no cyclic life penalty. Aero-derivative CTs have been designed for quick removal and replacement, allowing for fast maintenance and greatly reduced downtimes, and resulting in high unit availability and flexibility. This is a fast ramping and flexible generation resource that can effectively be paired with intermittent, non-dispatch, renewable resources, such as solar and wind. This resource was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Batteries Batteries serve a variety of purposes that make them attractive options to meet energy needs in both distributed and utility-scale applications. Batteries can be used to provide energy for a power station blackstart, peak load shaving, frequency regulation services, or peak load shifting to off-peak periods. They vary in size, differ in performance characteristics, and are usable in different locations. Batteries have gained considerable attention due to their ability to integrate intermittent generation sources, such as wind and solar, onto the grid. Battery storage technology approximates dispatchability for these variable energy resources. The primary challenge facing battery systems is the cost. Other factors such as recharge times, variance in temperature, energy efficiency, and capacity degradation are also important considerations for utility-scale battery systems. This resource was not considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Biomass Biomass generation facilities rely on renewable fuel in their thermal generation process. In the Companys service territory, the renewable fuel primarily used is waste wood. Greenfield biomass was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve, but it was found to be uneconomic. Generally, biomass generation facilities are geographically limited by access to a fuel source.
Circulating Fluidized Bed Circulating fluidized bed (CFB) combustion technology is a clean coal technology that has been operational for the past few decades and can consume a wide array of coal types and qualities, including low British thermal unit (Btu) waste coal and wood products.
The technology uses jets of air to suspend the fuel and results in a more complete chemical reaction allowing for efficient removal of many pollutants, such as NOx and SO2. The preferred location for this technology is within the vicinity of large quantities of waste coal. The Company will continue to track this technology and its associated economics based on site and fuel resource availability. With strict standards on emissions from the federal EGU New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) rule along with the potential Virginia RGGI program, this resource was not considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Coal with Carbon Capture and Sequestration 27 Coal generating technology is very mature with hundreds of plants in operation across the United States. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is a developing technology designed to collect and trap CO2 underground. This technology can be combined with many thermal generation technologies to reduce atmospheric carbon emissions; however, it is generally proposed to be used with coal-burning facilities. The targets for new EGUs under the federal EGU NSPS 111(b) rule, would require all new fossil fuel-fired electric generation resources to meet a strict limit for CO2 emissions. To meet these standards, CCS technology is assumed to be required on all new coal facilities, including supercritical pulverized coal (SCPC) and integrated-gasification combined-cycle (IGCC) technologies. Coal generation with CCS technology, however, is still under development and not commercially available. The Company will continue to track this technology and its associated economics. This resource was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Fuel Cell Fuel cells are electrochemical cells that convert chemical energy from fuel into electricity and heat.
They are similar to batteries in their operation, but where batteries store energy in the components (i.e., a closed system), fuel cells consume their reactants. Although fuel cells are considered an alternative energy technology, they would only qualify as renewable in Virginia or North Carolina if powered by a renewable energy resource as defined by the respective states statutes. This resource was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Gas-Fired Combined-Cycle A natural gas-fired CC plant combines a CT and a steam turbine plant into a single, highly-efficient power plant. The Company considered CCs with heat recovery steam generators and supplemental firing capability based on commercially-available advanced technology. This resource was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Gas-Fired Combustion Turbine Natural gas-fired CT technology has the lowest capital requirements ($/kW) of any resource considered; however, it has relatively high variable costs because of its low efficiency. This is a proven technology with cost information readily available. This resource was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
IGCC with CCS26 IGCC plants use a gasification system to produce synthetic natural gas from coal that is then used to fuel a CC. The gasification process produces a pressurized stream of CO2 before combustion, which, as research suggests, provides some advantages in preparing the CO2 for CCS systems.
IGCC systems remove a greater proportion of other air effluents in comparison to traditional coal units. The Company will continue to follow this technology and its associated economics. This resource was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Nuclear With a need for clean, non-carbon emitting baseload power, and with nuclear powers proven record of low operating costs, around the clock availability, and zero emissions, nuclear power generation units offer a feasible alternative to the electric sector. The process for constructing a new nuclear unit remains costly and time-consuming with various permits for design, location, and operation required by various government agencies all of which add to the risk of developing a new nuclear generating unit. Recognizing the importance of nuclear power and its many environmental and economic benefits, the Company obtained a combined operating license (COL) from the Nuclear 27 The Company currently assumes that the captured carbon cannot be sold.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Regulatory Commission (NRC) to support an additional unit at its existing North Anna Power Station. But based on the uncertainties of future carbon regulation, the Company has determined it is prudent to pause material development activities for North Anna 3. Going forward, the Company will continue to maintain the COL, which provides a valuable option in the future for a base load carbon-free generation resource that requires minimal land use. This resource was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric Power The Company is the operator and a 60% owner of the Bath County Pumped Storage Station, which is one of the worlds largest pumped storage generation stations with a net generating capacity of 3,003 MW. Due to their size, pumped storage facilities are best suited for centralized utility-scale applications. For recent advancements on pumped storage hydroelectric power, see Section 5.4 of this 2018 Plan. This resource was not considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engine Reciprocating internal combustion engines use reciprocating motion to convert heat energy into mechanical work. Stationary reciprocating engines differ from mobile reciprocating engines in that they are not used in road vehicles or non-road equipment.
There are two basic types of stationary reciprocating engines, spark ignition and compression ignition. Spark ignition engines use a spark (across a spark plug) to ignite a compressed fuel-air mixture. Typical fuels for such engines are gasoline and natural gas. Compression ignition engines compress air to a high pressure, heating the air to the ignition temperature of the fuel, which then is injected. The high compression ratio used for compression ignition engines results in a higher efficiency than is possible with spark ignition engines. Diesel fuel oil is normally used in compression ignition engines, although some are duel-fueled (i.e., natural gas is compressed with the combustion air and diesel oil is injected at the top of the compression stroke to initiate combustion). This resource was not considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Small Modular Reactors Small modular reactors (SMRs) are utility-scale nuclear units with electrical output of 300 MW or less. SMRs are manufactured almost entirely off-site in factories and delivered and installed on site in modules. The small power output of SMRs equates to higher electricity costs than a larger reactor, but the initial costs of building the reactor are significantly reduced. An SMR entails underground placement of reactors and spent-fuel storage pools and a natural cooling feature that can continue to function in the absence of external power. SMRs have more efficient containment and lessened proliferation concerns than standard nuclear units. SMRs are still in the early stages of development and permitting. The Company will continue to monitor the industrys ongoing research and development regarding this technology. This resource was not considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
5.1.3      NON-DISPATCHABLE RESOURCES Onshore Wind Wind resources are one of the fastest growing resources in the United States. The Company has considered onshore wind resources as a means of meeting the RPS goals, REPS requirements, and proposed CO2 mitigation regulations, and also as a cost-effective stand-alone resource. The suitability of this resource is highly dependent on locating an operating site that can achieve an acceptable capacity factor. Additionally, these facilities tend to operate at times that are non-coincidental with peak system conditions and therefore generally achieve a capacity contribution significantly lower than their nameplate ratings. There is limited land available in the Companys service territory to develop onshore wind resources because wind resources in the eastern portions of the United States are available in specialized locations, such as on mountain ridges. Figure 74
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources 5.1.3.1 displays the onshore wind potential of Virginia and North Carolina. The Company continues to examine onshore wind and has identified three feasible sites for consideration as onshore wind facilities in the western part of Virginia on mountaintop locations. This resource was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Figure 5.1.3.1 - Onshore Wind Resources Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory on April 2, 2018.
Offshore Wind Offshore wind has the potential to provide a large, scalable renewable resource for Virginia.
Figures 5.1.3.2 and 5.1.3.3 display the offshore wind potential of Virginia and North Carolina, respectively. Virginia has a unique offshore wind opportunity due to its shallow continental shelf extending approximately 40 miles off the coast, its proximity to load centers, the availability of local supply chain infrastructure, and world class port facilities. However, one challenge facing offshore wind development is its complex and costly installation and maintenance when compared to onshore wind. This resource was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve.
Figure 5.1.3.2 - Offshore Wind Resources - Virginia Source: Retrieved from U.S. Department of Energy on April 2, 2018 75
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Figure 5.1.3.3 - Offshore Wind Resources - North Carolina Source: Retrieved from U.S. Department of Energy on April 2, 2018.
Solar PV & Concentrating Solar Power Solar PV and concentrating solar power (CSP) are the two main types of solar technology used in electric power generation. Solar PV systems consist of interconnected PV cells that use semiconductor devices to convert sunlight into electricity. Solar PV technology is found in both large-scale and distributed systems and can be implemented where unobstructed access to sunlight is available. CSP systems utilize mirrors to reflect and concentrate sunlight onto receivers to convert solar energy into thermal energy that in turn produces electricity. CSP systems are generally used in large-scale solar plants and are mostly found in the southwestern area of the United States where solar resource potential is the highest. Solar PV technology was considered for further analysis in the Companys busbar curve, while CSP was not. Figure 5.1.3.4 shows the solar PV resources for the United States.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Figure 5.1.3.4 - Solar PV Resources of the United States Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory on April 2, 2018.
Solar generation is intermittent by nature, which fluctuates from hour-to-hour and in some cases from minute-to-minute. This type of generation volatility on a large scale could create distribution and transmission system instability. For example, Figure 5.1.3.5 shows how the solar eclipse affected the solar output at the Companys solar sites and Figure 5.1.3.6 shows the effect on aggregated solar generation and system load during the August 21, 2017 solar eclipse. Such an event demonstrates the need to observe these variable PV generation sites for reliable grid operation.
For these reasons, integration of solar PV at scale will require extensions and upgrades of the Companys supervisory control and data acquisitions system both at the transmission and distribution level. Additionally, in order to manage the added variability and uncertainty introduced by solar PV, other technologies may be needed, such as battery technology, quick start generation, voltage control technology, or pumped storage. The planning techniques and models currently used by the Company do not adequately assess the operational risk and cost that this type of generation could create, as further explained in Section 5.1.3.1.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Figure 5.1.3.5 - Solar Eclipse Effect on Solar Resources 20 Partial eclipse began at 1:18 PM, 18                    reached full peak at approximately                                                                                                                                                      Morgans Corner 2:44 PM, and ended at approximately 4:03 PM.                                                                                                                                                                                Scott I 16 Whitehouse Coronal Woodland 14 12 Generation (MW) 10 8
6 4
2 0
12 AM    1 AM    2 AM  3 AM  4 AM  5 AM    6 AM      7 AM          8 AM      9 AM    10 AM      11 AM  12 PM    1 PM      2 PM          3 PM      4 PM    5 PM  6 PM  7 PM    8 PM      9 PM      10 PM                11 PM Figure 5.1.3.6 - Solar Eclipse Effect on System Load and Solar Generation 17,500                                                                                                                                                                                              600 System Load Solar Generation 17,000                                                                                                                                                                                              500 Solar Generation (MW) 16,500                                                                                                                                                                                              400 System Load (MW) 16,000                                                                                                                                                                                              300 15,500                                                                                                                                                                                              200 15,000                                                                                                                                                                                              100 14,500                                                                                                                                                                                              0 6 AM    7 AM  8 AM    9 AM      10 AM          11 AM          12 PM      1 PM        2 PM      3 PM      4 PM          5 PM          6 PM      7 PM    8 PM    9 PM      10 PM Note: The solar generation in this graph is an estimate based on the measured data available.
5.1.3.1 SOLAR PV INTEGRATION COST The electric system reliability issues associated with the integration of large volumes of solar PV has been well documented in prior Plans. In this 2018 Plan, the Company has further refined its methods to estimate the solar PV integration costs as described below. Nevertheless, more work is 78
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources required in order to fully assess the necessary grid modifications and associated costs of integrating solar PV.
Transmission Cost In order to assess transmission integration costs, the Company performed a steady state power flow analysis using a scenario where 7,000 MW of solar PV was interconnected to the Companys transmission grid. In the 2017 Plan, this analysis was conducted by utilizing the most optimal locations for siting solar PV generation in terms of cost. In this 2018 Plan, however, the 7,000 MW of solar PV were sited based on a random site selection process described below.
Like the analysis included in the 2017 Plan, the Company first identified a population of solar PV sites based on available land parcels in Virginia that were screened utilizing several criteria, including access to the Companys transmission grid and other land characteristics along with cost.
This data was then combined with solar irradiance data provided by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in order to assess the solar generation potential of the specific sites. From this screening process, 326 solar PV sites were identified that represented approximately 37 GW (nameplate) of solar PV generation. Then 100 cases were created by randomly selecting feasible sites from the pre-screened set of 326 sites. Each selected case included approximately 7,000 MW (nameplate) of solar PV capacity.
Next, using the PSSE power flow model, the 100 different solar cases were assessed under 2019 PJM summer peak demand conditions, while assuming maximum solar PV generation output (with reactive power support of +/- 0.95 power factor), and displacement of generation from other Company-owned facilities. The results of a majority of these modeling cases identified several low voltage and thermal violations that would require mitigation activities via physical enhancements to the Companys transmission system. The total integration costs were then evaluated by including the cost of these enhancements with other required system interconnection costs. The results of this stochastic analysis are reflected in the total integration cost (interconnection plus transmission improvements) frequency distribution shown in Figure 5.1.3.1.1. Based on this analysis, the expected value of the total integration cost is approximately $165.00/kW.
Figure 5.1.3.1.1 - Solar PV Integration Cost Histogram The Company plans to build on this work in future Plans by considering dynamic system conditions arising out of sudden changes to solar PV output. Also, the Company intends to assess levels of solar PV that are higher and lower than the 7,000 MW in future Plans.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Distribution Cost For purposes of this 2018 Plan, the Company utilized actual interconnection costs associated with solar PV facilities interconnected to the Companys distribution network. This integration cost was derived from the system impact studies performed using the Companys distribution network model under the relevant state jurisdictional generation interconnection process. The average actual interconnection cost of these solar PV facilities is approximately $133.00/kW.
Total Interconnection Cost Going forward, it is not reasonable to assume that 100% of future solar PV additions to the Companys system will be interconnected solely at the transmission level or distribution level. For purposes of this 2018 Plan, the Company assumed that 70% of all future solar PV additions would be interconnected along the Companys transmission network, while 30% would be interconnected at the distribution level. These weighting factors were selected based on current solar PV facilities interconnected to the Companys network, along with solar PV facilities to be located in the Companys service territory that are listed in the PJM and state interconnection queues. A 70/30 weight results in an average interconnection cost of $155.00/kW.
As noted above, the interconnection cost for solar PV along the Companys transmission network
($165.00/kW) is based on 7,000 MW (nameplate) of solar PV generation. In the Companys judgment, however, it is unlikely that the same interconnection cost will be applicable for solar PV levels that are higher or lower than the 7,000 MW (nameplate) that was evaluated. Therefore, for purposes of this 2018 Plan, the Company used the interconnection cost schedule as listed in Figure 5.1.3.1.2 for modeling various nameplate levels of solar PV.
Figure 5.1.3.1.2 - Solar PV Interconnection Cost Schedule From            Through        Interconnection Cost 0 MW            2,560 MW              $75/kW 2,561 MW          4,960 MW              $115/kW 4,961 MW          6,960 MW              $155/kW Generation Costs Re-dispatch generation costs are defined in this 2018 Plan as additional costs that are incurred due to the unpredictability of events that occur during a typical power system operational day.
Historically, these types of events were driven by load variations due to actual weather that differs from what was forecasted for the period in question. For example, most power system operators assess the generation needs for a future period, typically the next day, based on load forecasts and commit a series of generators to be available for operation in that period. These committed generators are expected to operate in an hour-to-hour sequence that minimizes total cost. Once within that period, however, actual load may vary from what was planned and the committed generators may operate in a less than optimal hour-to-hour sequence. The resulting additional costs, due to real time variability, are known as re-dispatch costs.
As more and more intermittent generation like solar PV or wind is added to the grid, additional uncertainty about re-dispatch costs is added due to unpredictable cloud cover or changes in wind speed. In order to assess the resulting re-dispatch costs, the Company performed a simulation analysis to determine the impact on generation operations at varying levels of solar PV penetration.
To study the effects of these intermittent resources, hourly generation data from 26 individual sites was used to develop generation profiles from actual solar PV facilities currently interconnected to the Companys system. The study was performed at three different levels of solar penetration (up to 4,000 MW) to provide a range of results. The total system costs from each of these runs were compared to one another using several different mathematical average variances.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Relative to last years study, several improvements were made to the process and data analyzed.
First, the PLEXOS model was used for the production cost runs, which was able to incorporate an 8,760 hourly load profile for each of the solar sites studied. This is an improvement from the Strategist methodology used in the 2017 Plan, which incorporated a typical day by month load profile. Second, the dispatch from the PLEXOS model utilized the short-term (ST) module, which was able to include dispatch constraints on thermal generating units such as ramp rates, minimum up and down times, and other constraints that were not considered in the previous years modeling.
The ST module better represents the strains put on a generating system by intermittent resources.
Finally, the overall sample size used for the study has increased in both breadth and depth. Last years generation study pulled from 9 sites that totaled approximately 76 MW. This years study pulled from 26 sites that totaled approximately 220 MW. In this same regard, the geographic diversity in this years study is greater, as several utility scale sites located in Virginia have a full year of operating data. There were also a greater number of horizontal tracker sites that have a full year of operational data for this years study; last years sample was made up of mostly smaller rooftop or fixed tilt projects.
The levelized cost differential between each of the cases resulted in an approximate re-dispatch cost of $1.78/MWh. This value was used as a variable cost adder for all solar PV generation evaluated in this 2018 Plan.
As noted above, this analysis incorporated the hourly modeling feature available in the PLEXOS model. The Company is using the feature along with similar features in its AURORA model in order to examine the issues created by intermittent generation in a more robust manner. The Company is currently using this hourly feature and sub-hourly features contained in PLEXOS and AURORA to better examine and value of electricity storage, and other fast ramping resources such as aero derivative turbines. The Company intends to incorporate the results of these studies in future Plans.
Limitations of the Solar Integration Cost Analysis While this 2018 Plan further refines solar PV integration costs as described above, it is important to note that such costs are limited to the scope of the analysis conducted. For example, the transmission integration costs described above are assessed under steady-state conditions. Under dynamic conditions, it is highly likely that the integration costs will also be different. The same likelihood applies at the distribution level. Furthermore, although the distribution integration costs described above are based on actual interconnection cost data, that data does not include distribution substation upgrade costs that may be necessary to support a high influx of solar PV integration at the distribution level. Nor does it include transmission upgrade cost to the extent solar PV generation at the distribution level back-feeds onto the transmission grid.
From a generation perspective, the costs described above are only intended to assess re-dispatch costs. The costs associated with additional spinning reserve to support variable output from solar PV and the additional cost of machine wear and tear resulting from increased cycling have not yet been evaluated by the Company. The Company continues to develop processes that will aid in the cost evaluation associated with solar PV integration. The results of these evaluations will be included in future Plans filed by the Company.
Another major assumption used by the Company in this 2018 Plan is that the majority (70%) of future solar PV facilities would be interconnected at the transmission level. The Company maintains that this assumption is reasonable given current available information, including the economies of scale associated with large solar PV facilities. But if solar PV costs continue to decline, and given customer and societys preference for clean reliable energy, it is not unreasonable to expect that a large percentage of new solar PV facilities will be installed at or near customer homes and businesses or at other locations along the Companys distribution network. Given this plausible future outcome, the Companys distribution grid will require significant modification in order to 81
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources maintain reliable service to its customers. This is one of the driving forces behind the GTSA signed into Virginia law. A high-level summary of the Companys grid modernization plan is reflected in Section 5.1.4.
Finally, for purposes of this 2018 Plan, the Company has placed an annual 480 MW (nameplate) limitation with respect to the level of solar PV generation that can achieve commercial operation in any given year. The Companys ability to develop and bring online multiple solar PV facilities annually is limited due to the schedules associated with land access, permitting, equipment procurement, and regulatory approvals.
Distribution Feeder Hosting Capacity Analysis As part of this 2018 Plan, the Company has developed a process to identify PV hosting capacity at the distribution feeder level.
Typically, circuits and substations near load centers such as Northern Virginia have the capacity to integrate high levels of distributed generation such as solar PV. However, land availability in these regions can be low. Therefore, the analysis was performed based on prospective land for solar PV project development within close proximity to the Companys distribution facilities. Prospective locations and sizes of solar PV sites were chosen by the land data provided by the Companys GIS system. The land data was provided at one meter resolution and land parcels characterized by pasture, hay, and cultivated crops were considered as possible solar sites.
The initial step was to identify distribution level feeders with three phase (greater than or equal to 12.5 kV), within a quarter mile of the land parcels sized 40 acres (based on 8 acres per MW) and greater. This resulted in 412 feeders in Virginia. Next, additional feeders were eliminated due to voltage rise greater than 3% with 5 MW connected at unity power factor. Circuits that already had significant solar resources behind the step-down transformers and line regulators were eliminated as well.
Each remaining feeder was then evaluated to determine the maximum amount of PV that could be connected based on the nearest parcels. Some other filtering criteria were that the voltage must not rise more than 3%, no equipment rating could be exceeded, and substation transformer only loaded to 70% of nameplate at no load scenario on the feeder. This resulted in 529 sites on 303 feeders, 221 substation transformers, and 160 substations. These identified feeders can support approximately 4,200 MW of solar based on the substation transformers loading capacity. Virtually every circuit will need station regulators added or upgraded to keep voltage within acceptable ranges. Additional PV hosting capacity could be accommodated by re-conductoring, substation transformer upgrades, or operating PV inverters on a leading power factor. It should be acknowledged that this analysis did not consider the aggregate effect of the distributed solar PV on to the transmission grid. As new DG projects are interconnected to the Company's distribution system, or as the distribution system is modified, hosting capacity will change. This analysis was conducted to identify the overall capacity of the Company's current distribution system to address future solar PV development.
5.1.4      GRID MODERNIZATION The Company recognizes that customer expectations are evolving and that service reliability improvements will be required to maintain reliability, address resilience, enhance physical and cyber security, and improve the overall customer experience. The grid must adapt in order to meet these expectations.
As stated earlier in this 2018 Plan, utility-scale solar continues to be cost competitive with other more traditional forms of generation. The anticipated proliferation of smaller-scale DERs includes renewable resources, such as solar and wind, and battery technology. As costs continue to decline, 82
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources it is not unreasonable to expect that the Company or its customers will continue to install solar or other DERs at their homes, businesses, or other locations along the Companys distribution network.
Like most of the industry, the Companys electric distribution system was designed for one-way delivery of energy to meet peak demandfrom the generator, to the transmission network, to the distribution network, and then to the customer meter.
To the extent that DER proliferation and the adoption of EVs and battery storage continues, the Company must be prepared to meet a new paradigm that will require the Company to transform its existing electric delivery from its original one-way design to a modern two-way network capable of facilitating instantaneous energy injections and withdrawals at any point along the network while continuing to maintain the highest level of reliability and while maintaining service levels that customers expect and deserve. The first step in this transformation process is a modernization of the distribution grid.
To that end, the Company has begun the initial planning associated with a transformational grid modernization effort. The modernized system would need to include elements such as (i) smart or AMI meters; (ii) improved communications network; (iii) intelligent devices to monitor, predict and control the grid; (iv) distribution substation automation; (v) replace aging infrastructure; (vi) improvements to security; vii) methods to investigate new innovative technologies; and (viii) an enhanced customer information platform to enable management of customers energy usage.
Currently, at the generation and transmission level, the Companys electric system operators possess real-time visibility, communications, and control. Implementing a sophisticated system of communication and control similar to what system operators currently utilize at the generation and transmission levels will not only improve and modernize the distribution grid, but will make it adaptable to evolving technological changes.
In a future where potentially tens of thousands of DER devices are located at homes or businesses throughout Virginia, system operators will need the ability to monitor these devices in order to operate the distribution network so that overall electric service reliability can be safely and efficiently maintained. In addition to ensuring reliability and accommodating integration of distributed generation into the grid, this modernization program will offer customers a new information platform and opportunities to manage their energy usage. The Company continues to assess the details and costs associated with developing a future distribution grid that is stronger, smarter, and greener than todays network. The Company intends to report those findings in future Plans.
5.1.5      THIRD-PARTY MARKET ALTERNATIVES TO CAPACITY RESOURCES Solar During the last several years, the Company has increased its engagement of third-party solar developers in both its Virginia and North Carolina service territories. In July 2015, the Company issued an RFP for new utility-scale solar PV generating facilities located in Virginia. As a result of this RFP, the Company contracted with two developers for approximately 40 MW (nameplate) of solar. Since then, the developer of one of the 20 MW solar facilities failed to obtain a permit and terminated the PPA; the other PPA came online in December 2017. During this same timeframe, the Company brought online three self-build solar facilities (Scott, Whitehouse, and Woodland) totaling approximately 56 MW (nameplate).
In 2017, the Company issued three solicitations that included requests for solar generation. The first solicitation was a request for information (RFI) for renewable resources to potentially serve customers interested in being served by 100% renewable resources on a continuous hourly basis.
The second solicitation was an RFP for the Companys Community Solar Pilot Program seeking small solar resources (2 MW or less) totaling 10 MW. The third solicitation was an RFP for 83
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources approximately 300 MW of solar and onshore wind generation located in Virginia. The Company received a number of solar proposals through the RFI, but has yet to contract with any of those resources pending a decision from the SCC on the Companys application for 100% renewable energy tariffs in Case Nos. PUR-2017-00060 and PUR-2017-00157. Both RFPs attracted considerable interest from solar developers. The Company continues to evaluate responses to the RFP for the Community Solar Pilot Program and expects to contract with resources from that solicitation in 2018, pending approval of the Companys Community Solar application before the SCC in Case No. PUR-2018-00009. Finally, the Company continues to evaluate responses to the RFP for approximately 300 MW of solar and onshore wind generation and expects to make a decision on those proposals in 2018.
In North Carolina, over the same period, the Company has signed 83 PPAs totaling approximately 570 MW (nameplate) of new solar NUGs. Of these, 479 MW (nameplate) are from 67 solar projects that were in operation as of March 2018. The majority of these developers are qualifying facilities, contracting to sell capacity and energy at the Companys published North Carolina Schedule 19 rates in accordance with the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA), as approved in Docket No. E-100, Sub 136 (2012), Docket No. E-100, Sub 140 (2014), and Docket No. E-100, Sub 148 (2016). Going forward, the Companys qualifying facility PPAs will reflect the amended provisions of NCGS &sect; 62-156, as enacted by North Carolina House Bill 589, governing payments for avoided capacity and for PURPA contract availability and terms.
Wind The Company received several proposals for wind generation resources in PJM through the RFI mentioned above. The Company has yet to contract with any of these resources pending a decision on its tariff application. The Company received one wind proposal through its RFP for approximately 300 MW of solar and onshore wind generation. The proposals price was not competitive when compared with other solar alternatives.
Other Third-Party Alternatives Over the past two years, the Company has evaluated a number of opportunities to extend the terms of the current NUG contracts that have recently expired or will expire in the next several years.
Many of these were evaluated through a formal RFP process, while others were evaluated through direct contact with the existing NUG owner. However, none of these existing NUGs were found to be cost-effective options for customers when compared to other options. Additionally, the Company has been in early discussions with a number of developers of other new third-party generation alternatives over the past year. However, none of these discussions have matured to the point of the Company receiving or being able to evaluate a firm PPA price offer.
In 2017, one of the Companys NUGs, Roanoke Valley Facility I and II, ceased operations, but the amended agreement called for replacement power equal to the previously contracted amounts to be provided to the Company through the term of the original NUG contract, ending in March 2019.
While the Roanoke Valley Facility is no longer listed as a NUG in Appendix 3B, the Companys future resource planning includes the replacement power through the term of this agreement.
5.2 LEVELIZED BUSBAR COSTS The Companys busbar model was designed to estimate the levelized busbar costs of various technologies on an equivalent basis. The busbar results show the levelized cost of power generation at different capacity factors and represent the Companys initial quantitative comparison of various alternative resources. These comparisons include: fuel, heat rate, emissions, variable and fixed O&M costs, expected service life, and overnight construction costs.
Figures 5.2.1 and 5.2.2 display summary results of the busbar model comparing the economics of the different technologies discussed in Sections 5.1.2 and 5.1.3. The results were separated into 84
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources two figures because non-dispatchable resources are not equivalent to dispatchable resources for the energy and capacity value they provide to customers. For example, dispatchable resources are able to generate when power prices are the highest, while non-dispatchable resources may not have the ability to do so. Furthermore, non-dispatchable resources typically receive less capacity value for meeting the Companys reserve margin requirements and may require additional technologies in order to assure grid stability.
Figure 5.2.1 - Dispatchable Levelized Busbar Costs (2023 COD)
                      $3,500
                      $3,000
                      $2,500                                                                              IGCC w/ CCS
                      $2,000                                                                                SCPC w/ CCS
            $/kw-yr                                                                                                BIOMASS
                      $1,500 FUEL CELL NUCLEAR
                      $1,000 SOLAR & AERO CT
                          $500                                  AERO CT                                            1X1 CC 2X1 CC CT 0%        10%    20%    30%      40%        50%      60%      70%    80%    90%      100%
Capacity Factor Figure 5.2.2 - Non-Dispatchable Levelized Busbar Costs (2023 COD)
                          $3,500
                          $3,000 CVOW
                          $2,500
                          $2,000
                $/kw-yr
                          $1,500
                          $1,000
                            $500                                                OFF SHORE WIND SOLAR                    ON SHORE WIND
                                $0 0%    10%    20%        30%    40%        50%    60%      70%    80%      90%      100%
Capacity Factor 85
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Appendix 5A contains the tabular results of the screening level analysis. Appendix 5B displays the assumptions for heat rates, fixed and variable O&M expenses, expected service lives, and the estimated 2018 real dollar construction costs.
In Figure 5.2.1, the lowest values represent the lowest cost assets at the associated capacity factors along the x-axis. Therefore, one should look to the lowest curve (or combination of curves) when searching for the lowest cost combination of assets at operating capacity factors between 0% and 100%. Resources with busbar costs above the lowest combination of curves generally fail to move forward in a least-cost resource optimization. Higher cost generation, however, may be necessary to achieve other constraints like those required by potential carbon regulation. Figures 5.2.1 and 5.2.2 allow comparative evaluation of resource types. The cost curve at 0% capacity factor depicts the amount of invested total fixed cost of the unit. The slope of the units cost curve represents the variable cost of operating the unit, including fuel, emissions, and any REC or production tax credit (PTC) value a given unit may receive.
As shown in Figure 5.2.1, CT technology is currently the most cost-effective option at capacity factors less than approximately 25% for meeting the Companys peaking requirements. The CC 2x1 technology is the most economical option for capacity factors greater than approximately 25%. Also, as depicted in Figure 5.2.2, solar PV is a competitive choice at capacity factors of approximately 25%.
Wind and solar resources are non-dispatchable with intermittent production and lower dependable capacity ratings. Both resources produce less energy at peak demand periods, therefore more capacity would be required to maintain the same level of system reliability. For example, onshore wind provides only 13% of its nameplate capacity as firm capacity that is available to meet the Companys PJM resource requirements as described in Chapter 4. Figure 5.2.2 displays the non dispatchable resources that the Company considered in its busbar analysis. Non-dispatchable resources may require additional grid equipment and technology changes in order to maintain grid stability. The Company is routinely updating and evaluating the costs and availability of renewable resources.
Figure 5.2.3 identifies some basic capacity and energy differences between dispatchable resources and non-dispatchable resources. One additional factor to consider for solar installation is the amount of land required. For example, the installation of 1,000 MW of solar requires approximately 8,000 acres of land, which would encompass 12.5 square miles.
Figure 5.2.3 - Comparison of Resources by Capacity and Annual Energy Nameplate      Estimated Firm    Estimated Capacity    Estimated Annual Resource Type          Capacity          Capacity            Factor                Energy (MW)              (MW)                (%)                  (MWh)
Onshore Wind                  1,000              130                37%                      3,241,200 Offshore Wind                  1,000              167                42%                      3,635,400 Solar PV                      1,000              229                26%                      2,277,600 Nuclear                        1,000            1,000              92%                      8,059,200 CC                            1,000            1,000              80%                      7,008,000 CT                            1,000            1,000              20%                      1,752,000 Note: 1) Solar PV firm capacity has 22.86% value through 35 years of operation.
The assessment of alternative resource types and the busbar screening process provides a simplified foundation in selecting resources for further analysis. However, the busbar curve is static in nature because it relies on an average of all of the cost data of a resource over its lifetime.
Further analysis was conducted in PLEXOS to incorporate seasonal variations in cost and operating 86
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources characteristics, while integrating new resources with existing system resources. This analysis more accurately matched the resources found to be cost-effective in this screening process. This PLEXOS simulation analysis further refines the Companys analysis and assists in selecting the type and timing of additional resources that economically fit the customers current and future needs.
5.3 GENERATION UNDER DEVELOPMENT Extension of Nuclear Licensing An application for a subsequent or second license renewal is allowed during a nuclear plants first period of extended operation  i.e., in the 40 to 60 years range of its service life. Surry Units 1 and 2 entered into that period in 2012 (Unit 1) and 2013 (Unit 2). North Anna Units 1 and 2 will enter into that period in 2018 (Unit 1) and 2020 (Unit 2).
The Company informed the NRC in a {{letter dated|date=November 5, 2015|text=letter dated November 5, 2015}}, of its intent to submit a subsequent license renewal application for Surry Power Station Units 1 and 2. Under the current schedule, the Company intends to submit an application for the second renewed Operating Licenses in accordance with 10 CFR Part 54 by the end of the first quarter of 2019. The issuance of the renewed license would follow successful NRC safety and environmental reviews tentatively in the 2022 timeframe.
The Company informed the NRC in a {{letter dated|date=November 9, 2017|text=letter dated November 9, 2017}}, of its intent to submit a subsequent license renewal application for North Anna Power Station Units 1 and 2. Under the current schedule, the Company intends to submit an application for the second renewed Operating Licenses in accordance with 10 CFR Part 54 by the end of the 2020. The issuance of the renewed license would follow successful NRC safety and environmental reviews tentatively in the 2023 timeframe.
There has been no additional correspondence between the Company and the NRC concerning any second license renewals since November 2017. The Company has, however, participated in public industry meetings during the last 12 months with other potential utility applicants in which second license renewal applications have been discussed with the NRC.
NRC draft guidance on the requirements for a second license renewal was issued for public comment in December 2015. The industry, including the Company and interested stakeholders, has reviewed the guidance information to understand the pre-decisional technical requirements and additional aging management program requirements. The nuclear industry, including the Company, provided comments through the Nuclear Energy Institute in February 2016, which was the end of the public comment period. The NRC is currently evaluating the industry and stakeholder comments.
Following the issuance of the final NRC guidance documents, the Company will begin finalizing the technical evaluation and additional aging management program requirements required to support the second license renewal application.
The preliminary cost estimates for the extension of the nuclear licenses for Surry Units 1 and 2, as well as North Anna Units 1 and 2 can be found in Appendix 5F.
Solar US-3 Solar 1, 142 MW (nameplate), and US-3 Solar 2, 98 MW (nameplate), are Company-owned Virginia utility-scale solar generation currently under development. These two projects are included in the 2018 Plan.
Offshore Wind The Company continues to pursue offshore wind development in a prudent manner for its customers and for the states economic development. Offshore wind has the potential to provide a scalable renewable resource if it can be achieved at reasonable cost to customers. To help determine how 87
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources this can be accomplished, the Company is involved in two active projects: (i) CVOW and (ii) commercial development in the Virginia Wind Energy Area (WEA), both of which are located approximately 27 miles (approximately 24 nautical miles) off the coast of Virginia. A complete discussion of these efforts is included in Section 5.4.
Figure 5.3.1 and Appendix 5C provide the projected in-service dates and capacities for generation resources under development for the Alternative Plans.
Figure 5.3.1 - Generation under Development1 Forecasted                                                                                        Nameplate        Capacity (Net MW)
Unit                Location    Primary Fuel      Unit Type COD                                                                                          Capacity (MW)      Summer        Winter 2020                  US-3 Solar 1                VA            Solar        Intermittent          142              33          33 2021                      CVOW                    VA            Wind        Intermittent          12              2            2 2021                  US-3 Solar 2                VA            Solar        Intermittent          98              22          22 2032          Surry Unit 1 Nuclear Extension      VA          Nuclear        Baseload            838            838          875 2033          Surry Unit 2 Nuclear Extension      VA          Nuclear        Baseload            838            838          875 2038      North Anna Unit 1 Nuclear Extension      VA          Nuclear        Baseload            838            838          868 2040      North Anna Unit 2 Nuclear Extension      VA          Nuclear        Baseload            834            834          863 Notes: 1) All Generation under development projects and capital expenditures are preliminary in nature and subject to regulatory and/or Board of Directors approval.
5.4 EMERGING AND RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT The Company conducts research in the renewable and alternative energy technologies sector, participates in federal and state policy development on alternative energy initiatives, and identifies potential alternative energy resource and technology opportunities within the existing regulatory framework for the Companys service territory. The Company is actively pursuing the following technologies and opportunities.
Research and Development Initiatives - Virginia Pursuant to Va. Code &sect; 56-585.2, utilities that are participating in Virginias RPS program are allowed to meet up to 20% of their annual RPS goals using RECs issued by the SCC for investments in renewable and alternative energy research and development activities. In addition to three projects completed in 2014, the Company is currently partnering with nine institutions of higher education on Virginia renewable energy research and development projects. The Company filed its annual report in November 2017, analyzing the prior years PJM REC prices and quantifying its qualified investments to facilitate the SCCs validation and issuance of RECs for Virginia renewable and alternative energy research and development projects.
Research and Development Initiatives - North Carolina Pursuant to NCGS &sect; 62-133.8(h), the Company completed construction of its microgrid demonstration project at its North Carolina Kitty Hawk District Office in July 2014. The microgrid project included innovative distributed renewable generation and energy storage technologies. A microgrid, as defined by the DOE, is a group of interconnected loads and distributed energy resources within clearly defined electrical boundaries that acts as a single controllable entity with respect to the grid, allowing it to operate in grid-connected or island mode. The project included four different types of micro-wind turbines, a solar PV array, and a lithium-ion battery integrated behind the-meter with the existing on-site diesel generator and utility feed. In the third quarter of 2015, the Company integrated two small, residential-sized fuel cells in order to study the fuel cells interaction with the on-site renewable energy technologies in a microgrid environment. The knowledge gained from this microgrid project has been used to further assess the best practice for integrating large amounts of intermittent generation (such as wind and solar PV) into the existing grid.
88
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Offshore Wind - Virginia The Company is actively participating in offshore wind policy and innovative technology development in order to identify ways to advance offshore wind generation responsibly and cost-effectively.
The Virginia General Assembly passed legislation in 2010 to create the Virginia Offshore Wind Development Authority (VOWDA) to help facilitate offshore wind energy development in the Commonwealth. The Company continues to actively participate in VOWDA, as well as the Virginia Offshore Wind Coalition (VOW). The VOW is an organization comprised of developers, manufacturers, utilities, municipalities, businesses, and other parties interested in offshore wind.
This group advocates on the behalf of offshore wind development before the Virginia General Assembly and with the Virginia delegation to the U.S. Congress.
As part of its ongoing commitment to bring cleaner energy to its customers, the Company is moving forward on the Mid-Atlantics first offshore wind project in a federal lease area. In July 2017, the Company announced that it had signed an agreement and strategic partnership with &#xd8;rsted Energy of Denmark, a global leader in offshore wind development, to build two 6 MW turbines off the coast of Virginia Beach. The Company remains the sole owner of the project.
In January 2018, an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) agreement was executed with &#xd8;rsted and development work on CVOW is ongoing to support a targeted installation by the end of 2020, with capacity being available in the 2021 RPM auction. The project is an important first step toward offshore wind development for Virginia and the United States. Along with clean energy, it will provide the Company valuable experience in permitting, constructing, and operating offshore wind resources which will help inform potential commercial scale development of the adjacent 112,000 acre wind lease area.
Energy Storage Technologies There are several different types of energy storage technologies. Energy storage technologies include, but are not limited to, pumped storage hydroelectric power, superconducting magnetic energy storage, capacitors, compressed air energy storage, flywheels, and batteries. Cost considerations and technology maturity have restricted widespread deployment of most of these technologies, with the exception of pumped storage hydroelectric power and batteries.
There is also increasing interest in pumped storage hydroelectric power as a storage mechanism for the intermittent and highly variable output of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. For example, the 2017 Regular Session of the Virginia General Assembly passed Senate Bill 1418 (SB 1418) supporting construction of one or more pumped hydroelectric generation and storage facilities that utilize on-site or off-site renewable energy resources as all or a portion of their power source and such facilities and associated resources are located in the coalfield region of the Commonwealth. The General Assembly adopted the Governors amendments to SB 1418 on April 5, 2017. The bill became law effective July 1, 2017.
Following the approval of SB 1418, the Company is in the early stages of conducting feasibility studies for a potential pumped storage facility in the western part of the Commonwealth of Virginia.
The Company acknowledges that pumped storage is a proven dispatchable technology that would complement the ongoing integration of renewable solar and wind resources.
In addition to pumped storage hydroelectric power, the Company continues to monitor advancements in other energy storage technologies, such as batteries and flywheels. These energy storage technologies can also be used to provide grid stability as more renewable generation sources are integrated into the grid. In addition to reducing the intermittency of wind and solar generation resources, batteries can shift power output from periods of low demand to periods of peak demand. This increases the dispatchability and flexibility of these resources.
89
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Electric Vehicle Initiatives Various automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have released EVs for sale to the public in the Companys service territory. The Company continues to monitor the introduction of EV models from several other OEMs in its Virginia service territory. While the overall penetration of EVs has been somewhat lower than anticipated, recent registration data from the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) and IHS, Inc. (IHS, formerly Polk Automotive), demonstrates steady growth. The Company did not augment its load forecast used in this 2018 Plan to account for additional load from EVs. Therefore, only incremental load from EVs that is imbedded in history is partially included in the load forecast used in the 2018 Plan.
5.5 FUTURE DSM INITIATIVES In 2016, the Company conducted a residential appliance saturation survey with results shown in Figure 5.5.1. All else equal, the reduction in average energy use per household would be expected to reduce the technical, economic, and achievable potential savings. Lower consumption means that there is less opportunity for energy savings. However, the all else equal caveat is an important one because factors that change the economics of individual DSM measures also affect potential, and possibly offset the impacts of consumption trends. Such factors include changes to avoided costs (which can change the cost effectiveness of a measure from a societal standpoint), rates (which can change the cost effectiveness of a measure from the customer standpoint), and measure costs (which can affect both). The introduction of new technologies can also increase potential in the long run. On the other hand, codes and standards tend to reduce the achievable potential available to programs by improving the efficiency of baseline equipment or homes. In these situations, society captures the savings, but through a separate avenue from efficiency programs.
Figure 5.5.1 - Residential Energy Intensities (average kWh over all households)
Virginia (2013)                      Virginia (2016)          Percent Change kWh/household                                          Single Family Multi-family All Homes Single Family Multi-family  All Homes  All Homes Base Split-System Air Conditioner                          1,557          621      1,398      1,346          666        1,230      -12%
Base Early Replacement Split-System Air Conditioner          325            130        292        470          122          411        41%
Base Heat Pump Cooling                                      1,321          667      1,211      997          687          944        -22%
Base Early Replacement Heat Pump Cooling                    201            120        187        203            49          177        -5%
Base Room Air Conditioner                                    91            35        81        54            55          54        -33%
Base Early Replacement Room Air Conditioner                  17            3          15          4            0            3        -80%
Base Dehumidifier                                            17            8          15        287            38          245      1533%
Base Furnace Fans                                          1,058          458        956      1,085          442          976          2%
Base Heat Pump Space Heating                                1,344          581      1,215      1,527          610        1,372        13%
Base Early Replacement Heat Pump Heating                    339            139        305        358          118          317          4%
Base Resistance Space Heating                                656            600        647        376          348          372        -43%
Base High-Efficiency Incandescent Lighting, 0.5 hrs/day      151            67        137        93            46          85        -35%
Base High-Efficiency Incandescent Lighting, 2.5 hrs/day      590            279        537        332          164          304        -41%
Base High-Efficiency Incandescent Lighting, 6 hrs/day        399            174        361        190          115          177        -46%
Base Lighting 15 Watt CFL, 0.5 hrs/day                        20            9          18        17            10          16        -11%
Base Lighting 15 Watt CFL, 2.5 hrs/day                        82            37        74        70            40          65        -12%
Base Lighting 15 Watt CFL, 6 hrs/day                          54            25        49        46            27          43        -12%
Base Lighting 9 Watt LED, 0.5 hrs/day                        1              1          1          3            3            3        200%
Base Lighting 9 Watt LED, 2.5 hrs/day                        10            6          10        24            17          23        130%
Base Lighting 9 Watt LED, 6 hrs/day                          10            5          9        23            8            20        122%
Base Specialty Incandescent Lighting, 0.5 hrs/day            64            21        57        79            24          69        21%
Base Specialty Incandescent Lighting, 2.5 hrs/day            266            85        236        323            98          285        21%
Base Specialty Incandescent Lighting, 6 hrs/day              176            58        156        213            67          189        21%
Base Fluorescent Fixture 1.8 hrs/day                        442            135        390        442          121          388        -1%
Base Refrigerator                                            563            395        535        582          438          557          4%
Base Early Replacement Refrigerator                          80            54        75        200          126          187        149%
Base Second Refrigerator                                    352            6        293        405            23          340        16%
Base Freezer                                                334            52        286        150            63          136        -52%
Base Early Replacement Freezer                                59            9          51        110            21          95        86%
Base Second Freezer                                          18            0          15        14            0            11        -27%
Base 40 gal. Water Heating                                  1,569          1,441      1,547      920          261          808        -48%
Base Early Replacement Water Heating                        277            254        273      1,071        1,176        1,089      299%
Base Clothes washer                                          43            25        40        44            35          43          8%
Base Clothes Dryer                                          600            469        578        691          570          670        16%
Base Dishwasher                                              202            152        194        221          180          214        10%
Base Pool Pump                                              158            0        131        45            0            37        -72%
Base Plasma TV                                                77            34        70        35            24          33        -53%
Base LCD TV                                                  180            103        167        185          104          171          2%
Base CRT TV                                                  59            31        54          9            6            8        -85%
Base Set-Top Box                                            221            102        201        221          144          208          3%
Base DVD Player                                              26            17        25        31            17          29        16%
Base Desktop PC                                              241            128        222        274          107          245        10%
Base Laptop PC                                                43            26        40        53            37          51        28%
Base Cooking                                                528            451        515        659          617          652        27%
Base Miscellaneous                                          600            500        583        600          500          583          0%
Whole House                                                15,420          8,516    14,252      15,083        8,330      13,940        -2%
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources The Company conducted a DSM market potential study in 2017 (2017 DSM Potential Study), with results illustrated in Figure 5.5.2. The 2017 DSM Potential Study identified the technical, economic, and achievable market potential of energy savings for all measures in the Companys residential and commercial sectors. The technical market potential reflects the upper limit of energy savings assuming anything that could be achieved is realized. Similarly, the economic potential reflects the upper limit of energy savings potential from all cost-effective measures. The achievable potential reflects a more realistic assessment of energy savings by considering what measures can be cost-effectively implemented through a future program. The result is a list of cost-effective measures that can ultimately be evaluated for use in future program designs and a high level estimate of the amount of energy and capacity savings still available in the Companys service territory. The achievable potential identified in the 2017 DSM Potential Study is shown in Figure 5.5.2.
Figure 5.5.2 - 2018 Plan vs. DSM System Achievable Market Potential 4,500 4,000 3,500 4,177 3,000 2,500 3,042 GWh 2,000 1,500 2,001 1,000 500      840 0
2018 Plan    Base +    DSM Potential DSM Potential (by 2022)              (50% incentives)(75% incentives)
Figure 5.5.3 shows a comparison of the actual energy reductions for 2016 compared to the projected energy reductions for 2016. The actual energy reductions were 91% of the projected energy reductions for 2016. The energy reductions projected for 2022 in the 2017 Plan were 1,217 GWh.
This level of energy reduction represents 40% of the amount shown in the 2017 DSM Potential Study (50% incentive level) for 2022.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Figure 5.5.3 - DSM Projections/Percent Sales 6,558 6,500 6,000 5,500 VA Energy Target 5,000 4,500 EPA net cumulative                                  4,177 4,000                                              savings as percent GWh of sales before EE**
3,500 3,042 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000        556            613              810                840 500 0
2016 M&V      2016 Projection  2017 Projection  2022 Projection  Market Potential Market Potential  2022 Projected (Actual)*      (2016 Plan)      (2017 Plan)      (2018 Plan)        (50%)            (75%)            Cumulative (2018 Plan) 0.7%            0.7%              0.9%              0.9%            3.2%                4.4%          7.0%
Note: *Actual energy savings are a function of SCC-approved program funding levels and measured energy savings/participation relative to program design projections.
                          **EPA Demand-Side Energy Efficiency Technical Support Document August 2015.
https://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan/clean-power-plan-final-rule-technical-documents Data File: Demand-Side Energy Efficiency Appendix - Illustrative 7% Scenario.xlsx. Net Cumulative savings of 0.66% as percent of sales before EE.
A reasonable approach is to examine the projected energy reductions as a percent of energy sales.
Those values are shown at the bottom of the graph for each of the energy reduction bars. Currently, the Company is producing actual energy reductions at a rate of about 0.7% of system energy sales.
That is compared to a projected energy reduction of about 0.9% of sales in 2017. The projected energy reduction for the year 2022 is around 0.9% of sales. This level of energy reductions from DSM programs falls within a range of reasonable energy reductions. A reasonable range of energy reductions currently lies in a band of 0.5% to 1.0% of sales on an incremental basis.
In October 2017, the Company issued an RFI to solicit program concepts for a broad range of DSM programs. The information received in the RFI was used to develop an RFP for specific programs, which included a request for detailed design information. The RFP requested proposals for programs that may include measures identified in the 2017 DSM Potential Study, as well as other potential cost-effective measures based upon the current market trend. Responses from the RFP will be used to evaluate the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of proposed programs for customers in the Companys service territory.
In this 2018 Plan, there is a total reduction of 805 GWh by the end of the Planning Period in DSM related savings. By 2022, there are 840 GWh of reductions included in this 2018 Plan. There are several drivers that will affect the Companys ability to meet the current level of projected GWh reductions, including the cost-effectiveness of the DSM programs when filed, the SCC approval of newly filed programs, continuation of existing programs, the final outcome of proposed environmental regulations, and customers willingness to participate in approved DSM programs.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources 5.5.1        STANDARD DSM TESTS To evaluate DSM programs, the Company utilized four of the five standard tests from the California Standards Practice Manual. Based on SCC and NCUC findings and rulings in the Companys Virginia DSM proceedings 28 and North Carolina DSM proceedings,29 the Companys future DSM programs are evaluated on both an individual and portfolio basis.
From the 2013 Plan going forward, the Company made changes to its DSM screening criteria in recognition of amendments to Va. Code &sect; 56-576 enacted by the Virginia General Assembly in 2012 that a program shall not be rejected based solely on the results of a single test. Therefore, the Company considers including DSM programs that have passing scores (cost/benefit scores above 1.0) on the Participant, Utility Cost, and Total Resource Cost (TRC) tests.
In addition, during the 2017 planning cycle, the Company made a change in its DSM screening criteria based on the guidance in the Final Order in the 2016 DSM Proceeding where it denied the Phase VI Residential Home Energy Assessment Program. In this Order, the SCC states:
[A]ccording to the Companys [Ratepayer Impact Measure (RIM)]
score of 0.39 for this program, the costs to non-participants far exceed the system-wide benefits. Furthermore, at a ratio of 1.22, the TRC Test for the Residential Home Energy Assessment Program, which measures the impact to the utility and program participants, does not significantly offset the low RIM score. Moreover, a comparison of the [NPV] of the tests does not alter our conclusion.30 The Companys analysis and evaluation during the 2018 Plan and 2017 DSM planning cycles were guided by this order.
Although the Company uses these criteria to assess DSM programs, there are circumstances that require the Company to deviate from the aforementioned criteria and evaluate certain programs that do not meet these criteria on an individual basis. These DSM programs serve important policy and public interest goals, such as those recognized in approving the Companys Low Income Program 31 and, more recently, the Companys Income & Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program.32 5.5.2        REJECTED DSM PROGRAMS The Company did not reject any programs as part of the 2018 IRP process. A list of DSM rejected programs from prior IRP cycles is shown in Figure 5.5.2.1. Rejected programs may be re-evaluated and included in future DSM portfolios.
28 Case Nos. PUE-2009-00023, PUE-2009-00081, PUE-2010-00084, PUE-2011-00093, PUE-2012-00100, PUE-2013-00072, PUE-2014-00071, PUE-2015-00089, and PUE-2016-00111.
29 Docket No. E-22, Subs 463, 465, 466, 467, 468, 469, 495, 496, 497, 498, 499, 500, 507, 508, 509, 523, 524, 536, 538, and 539.
30 Petition of Virginia Electric and Power Company, For approval to implement new, and to extend existing, demand-side management programs and for approval of two updated rate adjustment clauses pursuant to &sect; 56-585.1 A 5 of the Code of Virginia, Case No.
PUE-2016-00111, Final Order at 11 (Jun. 1, 2017).
31 Approved by the SCC in Case No. PUE-2009-00081, and by the NCUC in Docket No. E-22, Sub 463.
32 Approved by the SCC in Case No. PUE-2014-00071 and the proposed extension in Case No. PUR-2017-00129, and by the NCUC in Docket No. E-22, Sub 523).
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Figure 5.5.2.1 - Prior IRP Cycle Rejected DSM Programs Program Non-Residential HVAC Tune-Up Program Energy Management System Program ENERGY STAR New Homes Program Geo-Thermal Heat Pump Program Home Energy Comparison Program Home Performance with ENERGY STAR Program In-Home Energy Display Program Premium Efficiency Motors Program Residential Refrigerator Turn-In Program Residential Solar Water Heating Program Residential Water Heater Cycling Program Residential Comprehensive Energy Audit Program Residential Radiant Barrier Program Residential Lighting (Phase II) Program Non-Residential Refrigeration Program Cool Roof Program Non-Residential Data Centers Program Non-Residential Curtailable Service Non-Residential Custom Incentive Enhanced Air Conditioner Direct Load Control Program Residential Programmable Thermostat Program Residential Controllable Thermostat Program Residential Retail LED Lighting Program (VA)
Residential New Homes Program Voltage Conservation Residential Home Energy Assessment 5.5.3    NEW CONSUMER EDUCATION PROGRAMS Future promotion of DSM programs will be through methods that raise program awareness as currently conducted in Virginia and North Carolina as discussed in Section 3.2.4.
5.5.4    ASSESSMENT OF OVERALL DEMAND-SIDE OPTIONS Figure 5.5.4.1 represents approximately 805 GWh in energy savings from DSM programs at a system-level by 2033.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Figure 5.5.4.1 - DSM Energy Reductions 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 GWh    950                                                                                                            "Total Approved" 900 850 800 750 2018      2019      2020      2021      2022      2023      2024      2025      2026      2027      2028      2029      2030      2031      2032      2033 Figure 5.5.4.2 represents a system coincidental demand reduction of approximately 304 MW by 2033 from the DSM programs at a system-level.
Figure 5.5.4.2 - DSM Demand Reductions 350 300 250 200 MW 150                                                                                                                            Total Approved 100 50 0
2018      2019      2020      2021      2022      2023      2024      2025      2026      2027      2028      2029      2030      2031      2032      2033 The capacity reductions for the portfolio of DSM programs in this 2018 Plan are lower than the projections in the 2017 Plan. The total capacity reduction by the end of the Planning Period was 426 MW for the portfolio of DSM programs in the 2017 Plan and is 304 MW in this 2018 Plan. This represents approximately a 29% decrease in demand reductions.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources The energy reduction for the DSM programs by the end of the Planning Period was 1,221 GWh in the 2017 Plan and is approximately 805 GWh in this 2018 Plan. This represents a 34% decrease in energy reductions. The majority of the differences between the 2017 Plan and the 2018 Plan is attributable to the outcome of the 2016 DSM proceeding in Case No. PUE-2016-00111. In that case, the SCC denied the Residential Home Energy Assessment Program and the extension of the DSM Phase II Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program. In addition, during the course of the proceeding in response to concerns of SCC Staff regarding the Phase IV Non-Residential Prescriptive program, there was a change in the program spend and size, that resulted in reduced average kWh savings. Also, the SCC Staff questioned the inclusion of a refrigeration measure in the DSM Phase V Small Business Improvement Program. The removal of this measure is reflected in current projections in this 2018 Plan.
DSM Levelized Cost Comparison The Company is providing a comparison of the cost of the Companys expected demand-side management costs relative to its expected supply-side costs. The costs are provided on a levelized cost per MWh basis for both supply- and demand-side options. The supply-side options levelized costs are developed by determining the revenue requirements, which consist of the dispatch cost of each of the units and the revenue requirement associated with the capital cost recovery of the resource. The demand-side options levelized cost is developed from the cost/benefit runs. The costs include the yearly program cash flow streams that incorporate program costs, customer incentives, and EM&V costs. The NPV of the cash flow stream is then levelized over the Planning Period using the Companys weighted average cost of capital. The costs for both types of resources are then sorted from lowest cost to highest cost and are shown in Figure 5.5.4.3.
Figure 5.5.4.3 - Comparison of per MWh Costs of Selected Generation Resources Comparison of per MWh Costs of Selected Generation Resources to Phase II through Phase VI Programs Utility Cost Perspective                      Cost ($/MWh)
Non-Residential Heating and Cooling Efficiency Program                    $5.47 Residential Retail LED Lighting Program (NC Only)                        $14.70 Non-Residential Lighting Systems and Controls Program                    $14.72 Non-Residential Window Film Program                                      $19.79 Non-Residential Prescriptive Program                                    $33.12 Solar                                                                    $56.38 Small Business Improvement Program                                      $56.51 2X1 CC                                                                  $67.72 1X1 CC                                                                  $78.44 Onshore Wind                                                            $94.10 CT                                                                      $107.05 Offshore Wind                                                          $130.60 Nuclear                                                                $141.52 Aero CT                                                                $171.54 Fuel Cell                                                              $199.25 Biomass                                                                $221.08 Income and Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program                      $237.17 Solar & Aero CT                                                        $248.73 SCPC w/ CCS                                                            $309.93 IGCC w/ CCS                                                            $444.91 CVOW                                                                    $779.71 Note: The Company does not use levelized costs to screen DSM programs. DSM programs also produce benefits in the form of avoided supply-side capacity and energy cost that should be netted against DSM program cost. The DSM cost/benefit tests discussed in Section 5.5.1 are the appropriate way to evaluate DSM programs when comparing to equivalent supply-side options, and is the method the Company uses to screen DSM programs.
Values shown for these units reflect the Cost of Service method.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources 5.5.5      LOAD DURATION CURVES The Company has provided load duration curves for the years 2019, 2023, and 2033 in Figures 5.5.5.1, 5.5.5.2, and 5.5.5.3, respectively.
Figure 5.5.5.1 - Load Duration Curve 2019 25,000 Without DSM With DSM 20,000 15,000 MW 10,000 5,000 Figure 5.5.5.2 - Load Duration Curve 2023 25,000 Without DSM With DSM 20,000 15,000 MW 10,000 5,000 97
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 5 - Future Resources Figure 5.5.5.3 - Load Duration Curve 2033 25,000 Without DSM With DSM 20,000 15,000 MW 10,000 5,000 5.6  FUTURE TRANSMISSION PROJECTS Figure 7.4.1 provides a list of transmission lines that the Company plans to construct during the Planning Period.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan CHAPTER 6 - DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN 6.1 IRP PROCESS The IRP process identifies, evaluates, and selects a variety of new resources to augment existing resources in order to meet customers changing capacity and energy needs. The Companys approach to the IRP process relies on integrating supply-side resources, market purchases, cost-effective DSM programs, and transmission options over the Study Period. This integration is intended to produce a long-term plan consistent with the Companys commitment to provide reliable electric service at the lowest reasonable cost and to mitigate risk of unforeseen market events all while meeting regulatory and environmental requirements. This analysis develops a forward-looking representation of the Companys system within the larger electricity market that simulates the dispatch of its EGUs, market transactions, and DSM programs in an economic and reliable manner.
The IRP process begins with the development of a long-term annual peak and energy requirements forecast, as described in Chapter 2. Next, existing and approved supply- and demand-side resources, as described in Chapter 3, are compared with expected load and reserve requirements.
This comparison yields the Companys expected future capacity and energy needs to maintain reliable service for its customers over the Study Period.
As described in Chapter 5, a feasibility screening, followed by a busbar screening curve analysis are conducted to identify supply-side resources, and a cost/benefit screening is conducted to determine demand-side resources that could potentially fit into the Companys resource mix. These potential resources and their associated economics are next incorporated into the Companys planning model, PLEXOS.
The next step is to develop a set of alternative plans using PLEXOS that represent plausible future paths forward considering the major drivers of future uncertainty. The Company develops these alternative plans in order to test different resource strategies against plausible scenarios that may occur given future market and regulatory uncertainty.
The Company has included in this 2018 Plan a comprehensive risk analysis in Section 6.7 that quantifies the operating cost risk and project development cost risk of each of the Alternative Plans.
This analysis includes a broadband of variables used as forecasting assumptions in this 2018 Plan.
These variables include fuel prices, effluent prices, market prices, renewable energy credit costs, construction costs, and the load forecast.
The results of both the cost analysis (PLEXOS modeling) and the comprehensive risk analysis are then compared in order to assess the best path forward to meet the future capacity and energy needs of the Companys customers.
The 2018 Plan development process is detailed in Figure 6.1.1 99
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.1.1 - Plan Development Process 100
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan 6.2  CAPACITY & ENERGY NEEDS As discussed in Chapter 2, over the Planning Period, the Company forecasted average annual growth rates of 1.4% in both peak and energy requirements for the DOM LSE. Chapter 3 presented the Companys existing supply- and demand-side resources, NUG contracts, generation retirements, and generation resources under construction. Figure 6.2.1 shows the Companys supply- and demand-side resources compared to the capacity requirement, including peak load and reserve margin. The area marked as Capacity Gap shows additional capacity resources that will be needed over the Planning Period in order to meet the capacity requirement. The Company plans to meet this capacity gap using a diverse combination of additional conventional and renewable generating capacity, DSM programs, and market purchases.
Figure 6.2.1 - Current Company Capacity Position (2019 - 2033) 26,000 24,000 22,000                                                                                Capacity Gap      5,501 20,000 Approved DSM MW 304 18,000 Generation Under Construction                    1,585 NUGs 144 16,000 Existing Generation1                                    16,490 14,000 12,000 10,000 Note: The values in the boxes represent total capacity in 2033.
: 1) Accounts for potential unit retirements and rating changes to existing units in the Plan, and reflects summer ratings.
: 2) See Section 4.2.2.
As indicated in Figure 6.2.1, the capacity gap at the end of the Planning Period is significant. The Planning Period capacity gap is expected to be approximately 5,501 MW. If this capacity deficit is not filled with additional resources, the reserve margin is expected to fall below the required 11.7%
planning reserve margin (as shown in Figure 6.2.2) beginning in 2021 and continuing to decrease thereafter.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.2.2 - Actual Reserve Margin without New Resources Year    Reserve Margin (%)
2019          13.3%
2020          12.4%
2021          6.1%
2022          -0.8%
2023          -2.3%
2024          -4.7%
2025          -6.3%
2026          -7.8%
2027          -8.8%
2028          -9.7%
2029          -11.0%
2030          -12.5%
2031          -13.4%
2032          -14.1%
2033          -14.8%
The Companys PJM membership has given it access to a wide pool of generating resources for energy and capacity. However, it is critical that adequate reserves are maintained not just in PJM as a whole, but specifically in the DOM Zone to ensure that the Companys load can be served reliably and cost-effectively. Maintaining adequate reserves within the DOM Zone lowers congestion costs, ensures a higher level of reliability, and keeps capacity prices low within the region.
Figure 6.2.3 illustrates the amount of annual energy required by the Company after the dispatch of its existing resources. The Companys energy requirements increase significantly over time.
Figure 6.2.3 - Current Company Energy Position (2019 - 2033) 120,000 110,000 100,000                                            Approved DSM            Energy Gap        25,935 90,000 Generation Under Construction                                      805 GWh  80,000  NUGs                                                                              11,964 1,402 70,000 60,000 Existing Generation1 72,169 50,000 40,000 Note: The values in the boxes represent total energy in 2033.
: 1) Accounts for potential unit retirements and rating changes to existing units in the Plan, and reflects summer ratings.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan The Companys long-term energy and capacity requirements shown in this section are met through an optimal mix of new conventional and renewable generation, DSM programs, and market resources that are derived using the IRP process.
6.3 MODELING PROCESSES & TECHNIQUES The Company used a methodology that compares the costs of the Alternative Plans to evaluate the type and timing of resources that were included in those plans. The first step in the process was to construct a representation of the Companys current resource base. Then, future assumptions were used as inputs to PLEXOS including but not limited to load, fuel prices, emissions costs, maintenance costs, and resource costs. This analysis provided a set of future supply-side resources potentially available to the Company, along with their individual characteristics. A 3x1 CC was excluded from modeling in the 2018 Plan to prevent future grid stability issues due to the addition of too many large generators in the DOM Zone as well as limited gas availability. The types of supply-side resources that are available to the PLEXOS model are shown in Figure 6.3.1.
Figure 6.3.1 - Supply-Side Resources Available in PLEXOS Dispatchable Aero-derivative CT Biomass CC 1x1 CC 2x1 Coal w/CCS CT Fuel Cell IGCC w/CCS Nuclear (NA3)
Non-Dispatchable CVOW Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Solar NUG Solar PV Solar Tag Key: CC: Combined-Cycle; CT: Combustion Turbine (2 units); IGCC CCS: Integrated-Gasification Combined-Cycle with Carbon Capture and Sequestration; Coal CCS: Coal with Carbon Capture and Sequestration; CVOW: Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind; Solar PV: Solar Photovoltaic; Solar Tag: Solar PV unit at a brownfield site.
PLEXOS does not have the ability to conduct cost/benefit evaluations for DSM within the model itself, leading to the need for an additional model, tool, or process. For this reason, the Company has continued its use of Strategist for DSM evaluations using consistent data between the models.
The inputs into Strategist are consistent with those in PLEXOS for the 2018 Plan. Supply-side options, market purchases, and currently approved demand-side resource options were optimized to arrive at the Alternative Plans presented in this 2018 Plan.
PLEXOS develops optimized resource plans based on the total NPV utility costs over the Study Period while simultaneously adhering to other market drivers, such as price forecasts derived from possible carbon regulations modeled in Plans B, C, D, and E. The NPV utility costs include the variable costs of all resources (including emissions and fuel), the cost of market purchases, and the fixed costs of future resources.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan 6.4 ALTERNATIVE PLANS The Companys analysis of the Alternative Plans is intended to represent plausible paths for future resource additions. Each of the Alternative Plans was optimized using least-cost analytical techniques given the constraints associated with that alternative to meet the differing compliance approaches.
Consistent with past Plans, the Company presents five Alternative Plans that represent plausible future paths for meeting the future electric needs of its customers. 33 This 2018 Plan assesses the portfolio expansions necessary to meet compliance with the Virginia RGGI Program (with unlimited imports), with RGGI (with unlimited and with limited imports), and with a potential Federal CO2 Program consistent with ICFs forecast. As has become custom, the Company has also included an Alternative Plan that estimates future generation expansion in a world where there are no limits on CO2 emissions.
The Alternative Plans also include the 12 MW (nameplate) CVOW as early as 2021; 760 MW (nameplate) of Virginia and North Carolina solar generation from NUGs, which are currently and expected to be under long-term contracts with the Company by 2020; and the 1,585 MW Greensville County Power Station, which is currently under construction and planned to enter commercial operation by 2019. Lastly, the Alternative Plans include Virginia Company-owned utility-scale solar generation: US-3 Solar 1, 142 MW (nameplate), and US-3 Solar 2, 98 MW (nameplate).
Additionally, the Alternative Plans acknowledge that 10 generating units are being placed into cold reserve in 2018. Bellemeade Power Station, Bremo Power Station Units 3 and 4, and Mecklenburg Power Station Units 1 and 2 were placed into cold reserve in April 2018. Pittsylvania Power Station will be placed into cold reserve in August 2018. Chesterfield Power Station Units 3 and 4 and Possum Point Power Station Units 3 and 4 will be placed into cold reserve in December 2018. Cold reserve does not mean permanent retirement. These units are currently planned to remain in cold reserve until 2021. These units, which total 1,292 MW of generation, can be reactivated in approximately six months if system needs and market conditions dictate. The Company will continue to maintain all required environmental permits for the units and continue to pay property taxes to the localities.
The Alternative Plans also assume that all of the Companys existing nuclear generation will receive 20-year license extensions that lengthen their useful lives beyond the Study Period. The license extensions for Surry Units 1 and 2 are included in 2032 and 2033, respectively, and the license extensions for North Anna Units 1 and 2 in 2038 and 2040, respectively.
Figure 6.4.1 reflects the Alternative Plans in tabular format.
33 As previously discussed, the Company does not consider the CPP a plausible future path. Nevertheless, based on a broad interpretation of the 2017 Plan Final Order, the Company presents a CPP scenario in Appendix 1B.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.4.1 - Alternative Plans Plan B:                    Plan C:                  Plan D:
Plan A:                                                                                                      Plan E:
Year                                      Virginia RGGI                    RGGI                      RGGI No CO2 Tax                                                                                              Federal CO2 Program (unlimited imports)        (unlimited imports)        (limited imports)
Approved DSM: 304 MW, 805 GWh by 2033 Greensville                Greensville                Greensville                Greensville                Greensville 2019 SLR NUG(1)                  SLR NUG(1)                SLR NUG(1)                SLR NUG(1)                SLR NUG(1)
US-3 Solar 1                US-3 Solar 1              US-3 Solar 1              US-3 Solar 1              US-3 Solar 1 2020 SLR (320 MW)                SLR (320 MW)              SLR (320 MW)              SLR (320 MW)              SLR (320 MW)
CVOW                        CVOW                      CVOW                      CVOW                      CVOW US-3 Solar 2                US-3 Solar 2              US-3 Solar 2              US-3 Solar 2              US-3 Solar 2 SLR (400 MW)                SLR (400 MW)              SLR (400 MW)              SLR (400 MW)              SLR (400 MW) 2021        Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)      Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)      Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)      Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)      Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)
CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)          CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)          CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)        CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)        CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)
Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)            Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)          Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)          Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)        Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)
PP5                          PP5                        PP5                        PP5                      PP5 CT                          CT                        CT                        CT                        CT 2022          SLR (480 MW)                SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
YT3                        YT3                        YT3                        YT3                        YT3 CT AERO                  CT AERO                    CT AERO CT                          CT                        CT                        CT                        CT 2023 SLR (480 MW)                SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
CH5-6                      CH5-6                      CH5-6 CT                          CT                        CT                        CT                        CT 2024 SLR (480 MW)                SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (400 MW)
CT AERO                  CT AERO 2X1 CC CT                          CT                        CT                                                  CT 2025                                                                                            SLR (400 MW)
SLR (400 MW)                SLR (400 MW)              SLR (400 MW)                                        SLR (480 MW)
CL1-2 CL1-2                    CL1-2 CT                          CT                        CT                        CT                        CT 2026 SLR (480 MW)                SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
CT                          CT                        CT                        CT 2027                                                                                                                      SLR (480 MW)
SLR (480 MW)                SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
CT                        CT                        CT 2028          SLR (480 MW)                                                                                                SLR (480 MW)
SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
CT                        CT                        CT                        CT 2029 SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (400 MW)
CT                        CT                        CT                        CT 2030                  CT SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (320 MW)
CT                          CT                        CT                        CT                        CT 2031 SLR (160 MW)                SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (80 MW)
CT                          CT                        CT 2032                                                                                            SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
SLR (240 MW)                SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW) 2033          SLR (80 MW)                SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)              SLR (480 MW)
Key: Belle: Bellemeade Power Station; Bremo: Bremo Power Station; CC: Combined-Cycle; CH: Chesterfield Power Station; CL: Clover Power Station; CT: Combustion Turbine (2 units); CT AERO: Aero-derivative CT (119 MW); CVOW: Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind; Greensville: Greensville County Power Station; MB: Mecklenburg Power Station; Pitt: Pittsylvania Power Station; PP: Possum Point Power Station; SLR: Generic Solar; SLR NUG: Solar NUG; US-3 Solar 1: US-3 Solar 1 Facility; US-3 Solar 2: US-3 Solar 2 Facility; YT: Yorktown Power Station.
Note: 1) Solar NUGs include 660 MW of NC solar NUGs and 100 MW of VA solar NUGs by 2020.
: 2) These units entered into cold reserve in April 2018.
: 3) Pittsylvania is planned to enter cold reserve in August 2018.
: 4) These units are planned to enter cold reserve in December 2018.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Additional resources and retirements are included in the Alternative Plans below:
Plan A: No CO2 Tax Plan A is based on the No CO2 Tax scenario and is developed using least cost modeling methodology. Specifically, it selects:
* 4,122 MW of CT capacity; and
* 4,480 MW (nameplate) of solar.
Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)
Plan B was designed assuming that the Virginia RGGI Program is finalized as proposed.
Specifically, Plan B assumes a partial return of allowance proceeds to generators within Virginia.
Plan B assumes that the Companys compliance with RGGI under the Virginia RGGI Program is largely met through the use of imported energy and capacity. Plan B selects:
* 5,038 MW of CT capacity;
* 238 MW of CT Aero capacity;
* 6,400 MW (nameplate) of solar; and
* The retirement of Chesterfield Units 5 and 6 in 2023, and Clover Units 1 and 2 in 2025.
Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports)
Plan C assumes that Virginia is a full member of RGGI. Specifically, Plan C assumes full auction of RGGI allowances with no return of allowance proceeds to generators within Virginia. Plan C is intended as a comparison against Plan B, and reflects the incremental cost of purchasing all allowances with no offsetting compensation payment. Specifically, Plan C selects:
* 5,038 MW of CT capacity;
* 238 MW of CT Aero capacity;
* 6,400 MW (nameplate) of solar; and
* The retirement of Chesterfield Units 5 and 6 in 2023, and Clover Units 1 and 2 in 2025.
Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)
Plan D assumes that Virginia is a full member of RGGI. Plan D assumes that the Companys compliance with RGGI is met through generation build within Virginia with limited import power.
Specifically, Plan D selects:
* 4,122 MW of CT capacity;
* 119 MW of CT Aero capacity;
* 6,400 MW (nameplate) of solar; and
* The retirement of Chesterfield Units 5 and 6 in 2023, and Clover Units 1 and 2 in 2025.
Plan D also includes 1,062 MW of 2x1 CC capacity; Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Plan E anticipates that Virginia does not join RGGI (either directly or through the Virginia RGGI Program) and that federal CO2 legislation is enacted beginning in 2026. Specifically, Plan E selects:
* 3,664 of CT capacity; and
* 5,760 MW (nameplate) of solar.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.4.2 illustrates the renewable resources included in the Alternative Plans over the Study Period (2019 to 2043).
Figure 6.4.2 - Renewable Resources in the Alternative Plans through the Study Period Plan B:              Plan C:                          Plan D:
Nameplate        Plan A:                                                                                                Plan E:
Virginia RGGI            RGGI                            RGGI MW          No CO2 Tax                                                                                          Federal CO2 Program (unlimited imports)  (unlimited imports)              (limited imports)
Existing Resources 1                    533                x                x                        x                              x                                x VCHEC Biomass                            61                  x                x                        x                              x                                x Solar NUGs 2                            760                x                x                        x                              x                                x CVOW                                    12                  x                x                        x                              x                                x US-3 Solar 1                            142                x                x                        x                              x                                x US-3 Solar 2                            98                  x                x                        x                              x                                x Solar PV                                Varies            4,960            6,960                    6,960                          6,960                            6,960 Note: 1) Existing Resources include hydro, biomass (excluding VCHEC), and solar.
: 2) Solar NUGs include forecasted VA and NC solar NUGs through 2020.
Figure 6.4.3 shows the total tons of CO2 emitted for all generation resources including CTs, contracted NUGs, and purchases in each of the Alternative Plans through the Study Period.
Figure 6.4.3 - Virginia CO2 Output from Dominion Energy Virginia units for the Alternative Plans 45 Actual                            Forecast 40 35 30 CO2 Emissions (MTons) 25 20 15 10 Plan A: No CO2 Tax Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports) and Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) 5 Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Plan D: RGGI (limited imports) 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 Note: Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports) and Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) have the same build plan and the same amount of CO2 emissions. The difference between Plans B and C is cost, as shown in Section 6.5.
6.5  ALTERNATIVE PLANS NPV COMPARISON The Company evaluated the Alternative Plans using base-case assumptions to compare and contrast the NPV utility costs over the Study Period. Figure 6.5.1 illustrates the NPV compliance cost for the Alternative Plans by showing the additional expenditures by the Alternative Plans over Plan A for the Study Period.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.5.1 - NPV Compliance Cost of the Alternative Plans over Plan A Plan B:                      Plan C:                          Plan D:                          Plan E:
Virginia RGGI                    RGGI                            RGGI                      Federal CO2 Program (unlimited imports)          (unlimited imports)              (limited imports)
NPV Compliance Cost ($B)                                              $                    1.54    $                    3.71  $                      4.04      $                            3.09 Figure 6.5.2 illustrates the incremental NPV compliance cost for the Alternative Plans over Plan A for the Study Period.
Figure 6.5.2 - Incremental NPV Compliance Cost of the Alternative Plans over Plan A (2019 - 2043)
                                            $8 CC:      -    MW                                                                                                        CC:        -    MW CC:      -    MW          CC:      -    MW              CC:      1,062 MW CT:      5,954 MW                                                                                                        CT:        5,496 MW CT:      6,870 MW          CT:      6,870 MW              CT:      6,412 MW Aero:    -    MW                                                                                                        Aero:      -    MW Aero:      238 MW          Aero:      238 MW              Aero:      119 MW
                                            $7      Solar: 4,960 MW                                                                                                          Solar:    6,960 MW Solar: 6,960 MW            Solar: 6,960 MW                Solar:    6,960 MW Retirements:                                                                                                            Retirements:
Retirements:                Retirements:                  Retirements:
Belle, Bremo, CH 3-4,                                                                                                    Belle, Bremo, CH 3-4, Belle, Bremo, CH 3-6,      Belle, Bremo, CH 3-6,          Belle, Bremo, CH 3-6, MB 1-2, Pitt, PP 3-5,                                                                                                    MB 1-2, Pitt, PP 3-5, CL 1-2, MB 1-2, Pitt,      CL 1-2, MB 1-2, Pitt,          CL 1-2, MB 1-2, Pitt, YT3                                                                                                                      YT3 PP 3-5, YT3                PP 3-5, YT3                    PP 3-5, YT3
                                            $6 Incremental NPV Cost ($Billions)
                                            $5
                                            $4
                                                                                                                                                    $4.04 B
                                                                                                                      $3.71 B
                                            $3
                                                                                                                                                                                      $3.09 B
                                            $2
                                                                                        $1.54 B
                                            $1 Plan A - No CO2 Tax          Plan B: Virginia RGGI            Plan C: RGGI                  Plan D: RGGI                    Plan E: Federal (unlimited imports)          (unlimited imports)            (limited imports)                  CO2 Program Note: The MWs in this figure do not include CVOW, DSM, Greensville, and US-3 Solar Units 1 and 2.
6.6  RATE IMPACT ANALYSIS Va. Code &sect; 56-599 B 9 requires the Company to evaluate [t]he most cost effective means of complying with current and pending state and federal environmental regulations, including compliance options to minimize effects on customer rates of such regulations. Accordingly, the Company evaluated the residential rate impact of each Alternative Plan against Plan A. 34 The results of this analysis are shown in Figures 6.6.1 through 6.6.6, which reflect the nominal dollar impact and percentage increase for a typical residential customer, using 1,000 kWh per month, each year starting in 2020 through 2043. In Plans B, C, and D, the increase in rates in 2023 and 2025 are attributable to the cost write-offs for unit retirements.
In Plan E: Federal CO2 Program, the decrease in rates in years 2020 through 2026 reflects lower fuel prices in the near-term due to fewer nuclear retirements, more renewable additions, and more coal retirements over the long-term when compared to the Plan A: No CO2 Tax. The lower fuel prices lead to lower power prices in the near-term.
34  The Company includes a rate impact analysis of a CPP scenario in Appendix 1B.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.6.1 - Monthly Rate Increase of Alternative Plans vs. Plan A Increase Compared to Plan A: No CO2 Tax ($)
Plan B:            Plan C:              Plan D:
Plan E:
Year    Virginia RGGI            RGGI            RGGI (limited Federal CO2 Program (unlimited imports) (unlimited imports)      imports) 2020          0.60                2.17                2.19                      (0.24) 2021          0.83                2.34                2.47                      (0.34) 2022          1.01                2.54                3.03                      (0.30) 2023          10.89              12.49                13.40                    (0.34) 2024          2.22                3.86                4.98                      (0.30) 2025          6.91                8.55                10.05                    (0.28) 2026          3.00                4.66                6.02                      (0.02) 2027          3.36                5.21                6.48                      0.52 2028          3.87                5.56                6.83                      1.76 2029          4.39                6.24                7.29                      2.35 2030          4.54                6.34                7.35                      2.82 2031          4.73                6.59                7.41                      3.53 2032          4.99                6.67                7.40                      4.80 2033          4.83                6.84                7.52                      5.62 2034          4.77                6.66                7.26                      6.66 2035          4.69                6.92                7.37                      7.87 2036          4.63                6.95                7.27                      8.65 2037          4.39                6.82                7.35                      9.21 2038          4.25                6.81                7.42                      9.97 2039          4.24                6.88                7.40                    10.79 2040          3.95                6.67                6.99                    11.68 2041          3.84                6.65                6.90                    12.75 2042          3.87                6.77                6.95                    14.05 2043          3.60                6.57                6.66                    15.46 109
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.6.2 - Monthly Rate Increase of Alternative Plans vs. Plan A Increase Compared to Plan A: No CO2 Tax (%)
Plan B:              Plan C:              Plan D:
Plan E:
Year    Virginia RGGI            RGGI                  RGGI Federal CO2 Program (unlimited imports)  (unlimited imports)  (limited imports) 2020          0.5%                1.9%                1.9%                    -0.2%
2021          0.7%                2.0%                2.1%                    -0.3%
2022          0.8%                2.1%                2.5%                    -0.2%
2023          9.1%                10.4%                11.2%                    -0.3%
2024          1.8%                3.2%                4.1%                    -0.2%
2025          5.6%                6.9%                8.1%                    -0.2%
2026          2.4%                3.7%                4.8%                      0.0%
2027          2.6%                4.1%                5.1%                      0.4%
2028          3.0%                4.3%                5.3%                      1.4%
2029          3.4%                4.8%                5.7%                      1.8%
2030          3.5%                4.9%                5.6%                      2.2%
2031          3.6%                5.0%                5.6%                      2.7%
2032          3.7%                5.0%                5.5%                      3.6%
2033          3.5%                5.0%                5.5%                      4.1%
2034          3.5%                4.9%                5.3%                      4.9%
2035          3.4%                5.1%                5.4%                      5.8%
2036          3.4%                5.1%                5.3%                      6.3%
2037          3.2%                5.0%                5.4%                      6.7%
2038          3.1%                4.9%                5.4%                      7.2%
2039          3.1%                5.0%                5.3%                      7.8%
2040          2.8%                4.8%                5.0%                      8.4%
2041          2.8%                4.8%                4.9%                      9.1%
2042          2.8%                4.8%                5.0%                    10.0%
2043          2.6%                4.6%                4.7%                    10.9%
110
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.6.3 - Residential Monthly Bill Increase for Alternative Plans compared to Plan A 35%
30%
Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)
Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) 25%
Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)
Plan E: Federal CO2 Program 20%
% Dollar Increase 15%
10%
5.6%
4.8%                                              4.9%
5%                                                              3.7%                                              3.5%
2.1%      2.5%                      2.4%                                                                                        2.2%
0.8%
0%
2022                  -0.2%                      2026              0.0%                                    2030
                              -5%
Year Figure 6.6.4 - Residential Monthly Bill Increase for Alternative Plans compared to Plan A
                              $45
                              $40                                                                                                              Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)
Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports)
                              $35                                                                                                              Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)
Plan E: Federal CO2 Program
                              $30 Dollar Increase
                              $25
                              $20
                              $15
                              $10
                                                                                                                                                                                    $7.35
                                                                                                                    $6.02                                            $6.34
                                                                                                    $4.66                                              $4.54
                                $5                            $3.03                      $3.00                                                                                            $2.82
                                                $2.54
                                      $1.01
                                $0 2022              ($0.30)                            2026            ($0.02)                                        2030
                              -$5 Year 111
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.6.5 - Residential Monthly Bill Increase for Alternative Plans compared to Plan A 12%                Includes Retirement Cost Write-off 10%
8%
% Dollar Increase 6%
4%
2%
0%
                            -2%
Year Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)    Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports)        Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)      Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Figure 6.6.6 - Residential Monthly Bill Increase for Alternative Plans compared to Plan A
                            $18 Includes Retirement Cost
                            $16
                            $14
                            $12 Dollar Increase
                            $10
                              $8
                              $6
                              $4
                              $2
                              $0
                            -$2 Year Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)    Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports)        Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)      Plan E: Federal CO2 Program 112
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan 6.7 COMPREHENSIVE RISK ANALYSIS 6.7.1        OVERVIEW To evaluate the risks associated with the Alternative Plans presented in Section 6.4, this 2018 Plan includes a comprehensive risk analysis methodology. Similar to the 2017 Plan, the Company utilized the same stochastic (probabilistic) methodology and supporting software developed by Pace Global (a Siemens business) in concert with the AURORA multi-area production costing model (licensed from EPIS, Inc.). Using this analytic and modeling framework (hereinafter referred to as the Pace Global Methodology), the Alternative Plans, each treated as a fixed portfolio of existing and expansion resources plus DSM measures, were evaluated and compared on the dimensions of average total production cost relative to two measures of cost-related risk: (i) standard deviation cost and (ii) semi-standard deviation cost.
The Pace Global Methodology is an adaptation of modern portfolio theory, which attempts to quantify the trade-off that usually exists between portfolio cost and portfolio risk, a quantification that is not addressed in the traditional least-cost planning paradigm. Measuring the risk associated with proposed expansion plans quantifies, for example, whether adopting any one particular plan comes with greater cost and risk for customers when compared to the cost and risk for competing plans. In the same way, comparing plans with different capacity mixeswhich have different cost and risk profilespotentially reveals the value of generation mix diversity. Importantly, it is impractical to include all possible sources of risk in this assessment, so the assessment includes only the most significant drivers to plan cost and variability.
At a high level, the Pace Global Methodology is comprised of the following steps:
: 1. Identify and create a stochastic model for each key source of portfolio risk which in this analysis are:
o Natural gas prices; o Natural gas basis; o Coal prices; o Oil prices (for proxy of coal transportation cost);
o Load (electricity demand);
o Hourly solar generation; o CO2 emission allowance prices; and o New generation capital cost.
: 2. Generate a set of stochastic realizations for the key risk factors within the PJM region and over the Study Period using Monte-Carlo techniques. For purposes of this analysis, 200 stochastic realizations were produced for each of the key risk factors.
: 3. Subject each of the Alternative Plans separately to this same set of stochastic risk factor outcomes by performing 200 AURORA multi-area model production cost simulations, which cover a significant part of the EI, using the risk factor outcomes as inputs.
: 4. Use the AURORA simulation results to calculate the expected levelized all-in average cost and the associated risk measures for each of the Alternative Plans.
The following Alternative Plans were evaluated under the comprehensive risk analysis:
* Plan A: No CO2 Tax
* Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)
* Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports)
* Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)
* Plan E: Federal CO2 Program 113
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan 6.7.2        PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT Upon completion of the AURORA simulations described in Section 6.7.1 post-processing of each Alternative Plans annual average total (fixed plus variable) production costs proceeded in the following steps:
* Levelize the annual average total production costs for each of the 200 draws over the 25 year Study Period using a nominal discount rate of 6.31%.
* Statistically summarize the 200 levelized average total production costs values into:
o    Expected value: the arithmetic average value of the 200 draws.
o    Standard deviation: the square-root of the average of the squared differences between each draws levelized value and the mean of all 200 levelized values. This is a standard measure of overall cost risk to the Companys customers.
o    One way (upward) standard deviation (semi-standard deviation): the standard deviation of only those levelized average production costs which exceed the expected value (i.e., the mean of all 200 levelized values). This is a measure of adverse cost risk to the Companys customers.
The resulting values are shown for the Alternative Plans in Figure 6.7.2.1 for comparative purposes.
Plans with lower values for expected levelized average cost, standard deviation, and semi-standard deviation are more beneficial for customers.
Figure 6.7.2.1 - Alternative Plan Portfolio Risk Assessment Results 2018 $/MWh                        Expected              Standard            Sem i- Standard Plan                  Levelized Average Cost      Deviation              Deviation Plan A: No CO2 Tax                                $31.84                $5.16                  $5.73 Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)          $34.06                $5.83                  $6.36 Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports)                  $35.98                $5.83                  $6.36 Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)                    $36.36                $5.68                  $6.17 Plan E: Federal CO2 Program                        $34.32                $5.53                  $5.91 Plan A: No CO2 Tax had the lowest levelized average cost and risk of all Alternative Plans. This result is expected given that Plan A was evaluated in a future that assumes no new CO2 regulation in any state, including Virginia. Among all other Alternative Plans with different regulations on carbon emissions, Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports) had the lowest expected cost and Plan E: Federal CO2 Program had the lowest risk based on the standard deviation. A visual display of average cost against risk as measured by standard deviation for the Alternative Plans is shown in Figure 6.7.2.2.
114
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.7.2.2 - Alternative Plans Mean-Variance Plot
                                $37 Plan D Plan C Preferred
                                $36 Average Cost ($\MWh)
                                $35 Plan E
                                $34 Plan B
                                $33
                                $32 Plan A
                                $31
                                $30
                                  $5.00              $5.20    $5.40              $5.60            $5.80              $6.00 Standard Deviation ($\MWh) 6.7.3 INCLUSION OF THE DISCOUNT RATE AS A CRITERION IN RISK ANALYSIS The Company also included discount rate as a criterion in its risk analysis. As described in Section 6.4, each of the Alternative Plans was developed based on minimization of total NPV utility costs over the Study Period subject to constraints, such as the reserve margin target and different regulations on carbon emissions. The discount rate is a key parameter in the NPV calculation and plays an important role in computing the risk analysis results. The Company notes the following points to form a background for the discussion on the discount rate:
* In principle, the appropriate discount rate to evaluate alternative expansion plans is from the standpoint of utility customers collectively, not the utility. While the customer discount rate is unobservable, it is a function of the opportunity costs facing utility consumers. This rate would be the same regardless of the expansion plan being evaluated. Absent knowledge of the customer discount rate, it is not unreasonable to use the utility discount rate as a proxy.
* In developing the Alternative Plans and in the comprehensive risk analysis, the discount rate used is the Companys five-year forecasted nominal after-tax weighted average cost of capital (WACC). This same discount rate is applied regardless of the expansion options under consideration. In this way, NPV costs are calculated on a consistent basis across all Alternative Plans. Because risk simulation results are in nominal 2018 dollars, after-tax WACC is used to levelize the average production costs over the Study Period for each of 200 stochastic realizations.
* Capital revenue requirements projected for each generation expansion option include EPC costs, capitalized financing costs, and equity return incurred prior to commercial operation.
* The comprehensive risk analysis results include the effect of uncertainty in the levelized capital revenue requirements for each type of expansion option. The risk analysis assumed the greatest uncertainty was for new nuclear and offshore wind projects and the least uncertainty was for technologies for which there is a lower per project capital requirements and/or for which the Company has proven construction experience.
Inclusion of the discount rate as a risk criterion is advisable because expansion plans that include significantly large and risky future capital outlays could mean that investors would require higher returns in compensation for the larger amount of capital at risk. It may also imply potentially 115
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan significant changes in the Companys future capital structure because the appropriate discount rate would be higher than that for Alternative Plans comprised of less capital intensive or risky projects.
Therefore, using a higher discount rate for such Alternative Plans would have the incorrect and implausible result of yielding lower expected NPV costs.
An alternative approach is to apply a risk-adjusted discount rate to the Alternative Plans that include high capital costs or high risk projects. Determining the appropriate risk-adjustment to the discount rate is problematic and is not known by the Company. For the present purpose of including the discount rate as a criterion in the risk analysis, Figures 6.7.3.1 and 6.7.3.2 show the results before and after a zero discount rate is applied to Plan D: RGGI (limited imports), which has the highest NPV cost of the Alternative Plans, and Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports), which has the highest standard deviation of the Alternative Plans. Using a zero discount rate attributes the maximum possible degree of risk adjustment to the discount rate for these two Alternative Plans and therefore provides an upper bound for such risk-adjusted discounting.
Figure 6.7.3.1 - Plan D: RGGI (limited imports) Risk Assessment Results 2018 Plan                          Levelized          Standard          Sem i- Standard
                                $/MWh                          Average Cost          Deviation            Deviation Plan D: RGGI (limited imports) - not risk adjusted      $36.36              $5.68                $6.17 Plan D: RGGI (limited imports) - risk adjusted          $42.25              $7.76                $9.07 Figure 6.7.3.2 - Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) Risk Assessment Results 2018 Plan                          Levelized          Standard        Sem i- Standard
                                  $/MWh                          Average Cost          Deviation          Deviation Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) - not risk adjusted      $35.98              $5.83                $6.36 Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) - risk adjusted          $41.99              $7.98                $9.28 Based on these numbers, it is evident that on a risk-adjusted basis, Plan D: RGGI (limited imports) still has the largest expected average production cost, while Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) still has the largest risk measured by both standard deviation and semi-standard deviation among all Alternative Plans.
While the Company includes this discount rate analysis, none of the Alternative Plans in this 2018 Plan includes what the Company believes to be capital-intensive high-risk generation, such as new nuclear units.
6.7.4 IDENTIFICATION OF LEVELS OF NATURAL GAS GENERATION WITH EXCESSIVE COST RISKS The SCC has directed the Company to specifically identify the levels of natural gas-fired generation where operating cost risks may become excessive or provide a detailed explanation as to why such a calculation cannot be made. In this 2018 Plan, each of the Alternative Plans was developed to comply on a standalone basis with different forms of carbon emission regulation. The results of the comprehensive risk analysis reflect the expected cost and estimated risk associated with each Alternative Plan in the context of a no carbon emission regulation or a particular mode of regulation.
In developing each of the Alternative Plans, the criterion used was minimization (subject to constraints) of NPV costs without considering the associated level of risk. Alternative Plan risk levels were assessed only after it was determined to be the lowest cost from among all feasible candidate plans. Developing Alternative Plans that considered both cost and risk jointly as criteria would have required the following different process:
116
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan
* The expansion planning process would have to determine the efficient frontier from among all feasible candidate plans. The efficient frontier identifies a range of feasible plans each with the lowest level of risk for its given level of expected cost. Identifying the efficient frontier is not practical using traditional utility planning software and computing resources. If the efficient frontier could be determined, then any candidate plan with risk levels higher than the efficient frontier could reasonably be characterized as having excess risk in the sense that there exists a plan on the efficient frontier with the same expected cost but with lower risk.
* The Company would need to know the mean-variance utility function (i.e., the risk aversion coefficient) of its customers collectively in order to select the feasible plan that optimally trades off cost and risk from among competing plans. This function could be applied regardless of whether it is possible to determine the efficient frontier. However, this function is not known, meaning that planners are unable to determine levels of plan risk that are unacceptable or that become excessive for customers.
In the absence of these risk evaluation tools, it is not technically possible to determine an absolute level of plan risk that becomes excessive, much less to determine that level of gas-fired generation within a plan that poses excessive cost risk for customers. Moreover, the absolute level of natural gas generation within a plan does not necessarily lead to greater risk; rather, all else being equal, it is the degree of overall supply diversity that drives production cost risk.
Because the notion of excessive risk is inherently relative, Company planners can apply a ranked preference approach through which a plan is preferred if its expected cost and measured risk are both less than the corresponding values of any competing plan. The ranked preference approach does not need to rely on a definition of excessive risk, but only on the principle that customers should prefer a plan that is simultaneously lowest in cost and in risk among competing plans. In the 2018 Plan, the results of the comprehensive risk analysis show that Plan A: No CO2 Tax has the lowest expected cost and risk than any of the other Alternative Plans. However, Plan A does not assume any regulation on carbon emissions and may not be preferred on grounds unrelated to risk.
But, comparing Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports) with Plan E: Federal CO2 Program shows that Plan E has somewhat lower risk than Plan B, but with a slightly higher expected cost. In this case, it is not clear which of the two Plans should be preferred. The planner could apply a mean-variance utility function (i.e., the customer risk aversion coefficient), if known, to ultimately determine which Alternative Plan is preferable. Without this coefficient, however, it can be reasonably assumed that Plan B would be preferable because it is lower cost with approximately the same level of risk.
6.7.5        OPERATING COST RISK ASSESSMENT The Company analyzed ways to mitigate operating cost risk associated with natural gas-fired generation through the use of long-term supply contracts that lock in a stable price, long-term investment in gas reserves, long-term firm transportation, and on-site liquefied natural gas storage.
Supply Contract/Investment in Gas Reserves For the purpose of analyzing long-term supply contracts and long-term investments in gas reserves, the Company utilized the stochastic analysis to determine the reduction in volatility that can be achieved by stabilizing prices on various volumes of natural gas. The expected price of natural gas as determined by the stochastic analysis is utilized to stabilize market price for this analysis. To analyze operating cost risk of such price stabilizing arrangements the price of natural gas is fixed at the expected value prices for a portion of the total fueling needs. The evaluation measures the reduction in plan risk by comparing the standard deviation between a plan with various quantities of fixed price natural gas and the same plan without fixed price natural gas. This methodology is representative of measuring the impact of a long-term supply contract and/or long-term investment in gas reserves on overall plan risk. In either case, the actions would simulate committing to the 117
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan purchase of natural gas supply over a long term at prevailing market prices at the time of the transaction. The primary benefit of such a strategy is to stabilize fuel prices, not to ensure below-market prices. Figures 6.7.5.1 through 6.7.5.4 indicate the reduction in portfolio risk associated with various quantities of natural gas at fixed price contracts or a natural gas reserve investment.
Figure 6.7.5.1 - Impact of Fixed Price Natural Gas on Levelized Average Cost and Operating Cost Risk - No Natural Gas at Fixed Price No Natural Gas at Fixed Price 2018 Plan                        Expected                Standard            Sem i- Standard
                                    $/MWh                    Levelized Average Cost          Deviation            Deviation Plan A: No CO2 Tax                                  $31.84                  $5.16                  $5.73 Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)          $34.06                  $5.83                  $6.36 Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports)                    $35.98                  $5.83                  $6.36 Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)                      $36.36                  $5.68                  $6.17 Plan E: Federal CO2 Program                        $34.32                  $5.53                  $5.91 Figure 6.7.5.2 - Impact of Fixed Price Natural Gas on Levelized Average Cost and Operating Cost Risk - 10% of Natural Gas at Fixed Price 10% of Natural Gas at Fixed Price 2018 Plan                            Expected                  Standard          Sem i- Standard          % Reduction in
                    $/MWh                    Levelized Average Cost            Deviation              Deviation          Standard Deviation Plan A: No CO2 Tax                                    $31.89                    $4.74                $5.28                    8.2%
Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)              $34.10                    $5.47                $5.97                    6.1%
Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports)                      $36.01                    $5.47                $5.97                    6.1%
Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)                        $36.39                    $5.31                $5.76                  6.5%
Plan E: Federal CO2 Program                            $34.35                    $5.12                $5.49                    7.3%
Note: Base volume and fixed market prices established from expected case results of stochastic analysis. Percent reduction in standard deviation relative to Figure 6.7.5.1 - No Gas at Fixed Price analysis.
Figure 6.7.5.3 - Impact of Fixed Price Natural Gas on Levelized Average Cost and Operating Cost Risk - 20% of Natural Gas at Fixed Price 20% of Natural Gas at Fixed Price 2018 Plan                            Expected                  Standard          Sem i- Standard          % Reduction in
                    $/MWh                    Levelized Average Cost            Deviation              Deviation          Standard Deviation Plan A: No CO2 Tax                                    $31.99                    $4.31                $4.80                  16.5%
Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)              $34.17                    $5.17                $5.66                  11.4%
Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports)                      $36.08                    $5.12                $5.60                  12.1%
Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)                        $36.47                    $4.95                $5.38                  13.0%
Plan E: Federal CO2 Program                            $34.45                    $4.72                $5.03                  14.6%
Note: Base volume and fixed market prices established from expected case results of stochastic analysis. Percent reduction in standard deviation relative to Figure 6.7.5.1 - No Gas at Fixed Price analysis.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.7.5.4 - Impact of Fixed Price Natural Gas on Levelized Average Cost and Operating Cost Risk - 30% of Natural Gas at Fixed Price 30% of Natural Gas at Fixed Price 2018 Plan                        Expected                  Standard          Sem i- Standard        % Reduction in
                    $/MWh                    Levelized Average Cost            Deviation            Deviation        Standard Deviation Plan A: No CO2 Tax                                  $32.15                    $3.89                $4.32                24.6%
Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports)          $34.29                    $4.77                $5.18                18.1%
Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports)                    $36.21                    $4.77                $5.18                18.1%
Plan D: RGGI (limited imports)                      $36.60                    $4.58                $5.00                19.4%
Plan E: Federal CO2 Program                        $34.60                    $4.32                $4.59                21.8%
Note: Base volume and fixed market prices established from expected case results of stochastic analysis. Percent reduction in standard deviation relative to Figure 6.7.5.1 - No Gas at Fixed Price analysis.
Included in the analysis of cost and risk mitigation effects of the long-term contracts or reserve investment is an estimate of the price impact the purchase of a large volume of natural gas would have on the market. The cost of such a transaction used in this analysis are representative of the impact on upward price movement that is likely to occur in the market for natural gas with the purchase of a significant quantity of gas on a long-term basis. The market impact of transacting significant volumes on a long-term contract is a function of the amount of time required to execute the contract volume and the price impact/potential movement of the price strip contract during the execution time. The cost of executing a contract of this type is estimated using the price of gas, the daily volatility of the five-year price strip, and the number of days needed to procure the volume.
The larger the volume, the longer it takes to execute the transaction, which exposes the total transaction volume to market volatility for a longer period of time and thereby increases the potential for increased cost associated with the transaction. The estimated cost adders included in the analysis are summarized in Figure 6.7.5.5.
Figure 6.7.5.5 - Cost Adders for a Fixed Price Natural Gas Long-Term Contract ($/MMbtu)
Yearly Volume (Bcf) 25        50      75        100
                                                            $3.00    $0.08 $0.13 $0.18 $0.23 Gas
                                                            $5.00    $0.11 $0.20 $0.28 $0.36 Price
                                                            $7.00    $0.15 $0.26 $0.38 $0.49 The analyzed volumes will have an impact on forward market prices; as such, the Company considers it prudent to include an estimate of the impact of transactions involving large volumes of natural gas on the gas price as a cost adder in this analysis. The Company recognizes the actual impact may be higher or lower than estimated. These costs are presented as representative based on assumptions determined from current market conditions. The salient value to these estimates is the inclusion of estimated market impact verses assuming the transactions can be conducted with no market price impact.
The primary benefit of such a strategy is to mitigate fuel price volatility, not to ensure below market prices. Stable natural gas pricing over the long term does have advantages in terms of rate stability but also carries the risk of higher fuel cost should the market move against the stabilized price.
Figures 6.7.5.6 and 6.7.5.7 provide a hypothetical example of stabilizing natural gas price at prevailing market prices available in February 2011 and February 2012, respectively. In this simplified example the assumption is a total fuel volume of 100 million cubic feet (mmcf) per day is needed for the entire period. The analysis then evaluates the impact of stabilizing the natural gas price (using February 2, 2011 and February 2, 2012 forward curves) for 20% of the volume against allowing the total volume to be priced at daily market prices. The key parameter is the cumulative 119
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan difference between programs that stabilize the price of 20% of the natural gas volume while purchasing 80% of the volume at daily market prices versus purchasing all the natural gas at daily market prices for the entire term. In these examples, the cumulative cost of the natural gas purchased by the 20% fixed cost program are higher by 6% to 14% depending on when the contract was established. These examples indicate that although the use of long-term contracts or reserve investments provides an effective method for mitigating fuel prices volatility, it does not ensure lower fuel cost to the customer.
Figure 6.7.5.6 - Hypothetical Example of the Cost of Purchasing 100 MMcf/day of Natural Gas
                                                                              $800 100% Fixed Price at 2/2/2011 Market
                                                                              $700 Daily Cost for 100 MMcf ($000)
                                                                              $600 Daily Cost With 20% Fixed
                                                                              $500                                                                            at 2/2/2011 Market
                                                                              $400
                                                                              $300
                                                                              $200
                                                                              $100 Daily Cost At Market
                                                                                $0 3/1/2011      3/1/2012          3/1/2013          3/1/2014        3/1/2015      3/1/2016        3/1/2017      3/1/2018 Daily Cost at Market        Daily Cost with 20% Fixed              Daily Cost with 100% Fixed at 2/2/2011 Forward Curve Figure 6.7.5.7 - Hypothetical Example of the Cost of Purchasing 100 MMcf/day of Natural Gas
                                                                              $800
                                                                              $700 100% Fixed Price at 2/2/2012 Market
                                                                              $600 Daily Cost for 100 MMcf ($000)
                                                                              $500
                                                                              $400
                                                                              $300
                                                                              $200 Daily Cost At Market Daily Cost With 20% Fixed
                                                                              $100 at 2/2/2012 Market
                                                                                $0 3/1/2012            3/1/2013          3/1/2014              3/1/2015        3/1/2016          3/1/2017        3/1/2018 Daily Cost at Market          Daily Cost with 20% Fixed          Daily Cost with 100% Fixed at 2/2/2012 Forward Curve 120
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Firm Transportation To evaluate the risk mitigation impact of securing long-term firm transportation, historic prices were analyzed at two natural gas supply basin trading hubs, Henry Hub and South Point, and at a natural gas trading hub representative of the Companys service territory, Transco Zone 5. The risk mitigation impact is a function of the difference in volatility between various natural gas trading hubs.
Pipeline constraints can limit the ability of the pipeline network to move natural gas from supply basins to the market area. These constraints, coupled with weather-driven demand, have historically resulted in significant location specific price volatility for natural gas. Long-term transportation contracts to various supply basin trading hubs afford the opportunity to mitigate location specific volatility risk by having the option to purchase natural gas at trading hubs that have less volatile pricing characteristics. Figure 6.7.5.8 shows the location of key natural gas trading hubs. Figures 6.7.5.9 through 6.7.5.11 illustrate the historic price variations (2009 to March 2018) for natural gas at three trading hubs. The shaded area of the graphs indicates one standard deviation of pricing history for each year, meaning that 68% of all daily prices for each year fall within the shaded area. As can be seen in these figures, the historic variations in price differ between the three trading hubs with Transco Zone 5 having a higher variation in natural gas prices than the two trading hubs located in supply basins. Based on historic pricing patterns, this would indicate a long term transportation contract to either Henry Hub or South Point would provide the opportunity to purchase natural gas at a trading hub that has historically experienced less short-term variations in price.
Figure 6.7.5.8 - Map of Key Natural Gas Pipelines and Trading Hubs 121
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.7.5.9 - Natural Gas Daily Average Price Ranges - Henry Hub
                $25
                $20
                $15
    $/MMbtu
                $10
                  $5
                  $0 2009  2010  2011    2012    2013    2014      2015    2016    2017      2018 Note: A larger box indicates greater price volatility than a smaller box. Prices through March 31, 2018.
Figure 6.7.5.10 - Natural Gas Daily Average Price Ranges - Transco Zone 5
                $25
                $20
                $15
      $/MMbtu
                $10
                  $5
                  $0 2009  2010  2011      2012    2013    2014      2015    2016    2017      2018 Note: A larger box indicates greater price volatility than a smaller box. Prices through March 31, 2018.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan Figure 6.7.5.11 - Natural Gas Daily Average Price Ranges - South Point
                              $25
                              $20
                              $15
                    $/MMbtu
                              $10
                                $5
                                $0 2009  2010    2011      2012    2013    2014      2015    2016    2017      2018 Note: A larger box indicates greater price volatility than a smaller box. Prices through March 31, 2018.
On-site Liquid Natural Gas Storage On-site liquid natural gas (LNG) storage provides short periods of plant fueling and requires long refill times. It also serves as a backup fueling arrangement capable of mitigating risk associated with a system-wide pipeline disruption scenario, while providing an option that has operating characteristics similar to natural gas. However, this type of fueling arrangement provides limited operating cost risk mitigation. The natural gas required to fill LNG storage would be supplied using natural gas purchased at market prices with limited assurance that price would be lower during the refill process than when used as a fueling source. LNG storage capacity would generally be large enough to fuel a plant for several days, while taking several months to refill the storage.
6.8  GENERATION UNIT RETIREMENTS Plans A through E include several generating unit retirements that were necessary to minimize overall costs to the Companys customers or to meet the CO2 limits required by the program being assessed (i.e., Virginia RGGI, RGGI, and Federal CO2 Program).
The generators listed below should be considered as tentative for retirement only. The Companys final decisions regarding any unit retirement will be made at a future date. For purposes of this 2018 Plan, the assumptions regarding generation unit retirements are as follows:
* Bellemeade (267 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Bremo Units 3 and 4 (227 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Chesterfield Units 3 and 4 (261 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Mecklenburg Units 1 and 2 (138 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Pittsylvania (83 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans; 123
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan
* Possum Point Units 3 and 4 (316 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Possum Point Unit 5 (786 MW) to be potentially retired by 2021 in all Alternative Plans;
* Yorktown Unit 3 (790 MW) to be potentially retired by 2022 in all Alternative Plans;
* Chesterfield Units 5 (336 MW) and 6 (670 MW) to be potentially retired by 2023 in Alternative Plans B, C, and D; and
* Clover Units 1 (220 MW) and 2 (219 MW) to be potentially retired by 2025 in Alternative Plans B, C, and D.
6.9 MISCELLANEOUS ANALYSIS Retire/Co-Fire/Repower Analysis This analysis was focused on the Companys coal-fired and heavy oil-fired facilities and assessed the cost to customers of the retirement, co-firing natural gas, and repowering of these facilities to exclusively burn natural gas. The analysis was performed using the PLEXOS model and assumed CO2 limitations and market forecasts consistent with three scenarios: No CO2 Tax, RGGI, and the Federal CO2 Program.
The retirement analysis included an assessment of the forecasted unit economics and the cost to customers assuming: (i) continued business operations of these facilities; (ii) the potential retirement of these facilities; (iii) 25% and 100% co-firing natural gas at these facilities; and (iv) repowering these facilities to exclusively burn natural gas. In the case of retirement, this analysis considered the cost of retirement and replacement of these facilities. The co-firing and repowering analysis considered all plant capital costs associated with natural gas fueling along with all pipeline and other fuel costs associated with delivering natural gas to the facility. The co-fire and repower alternatives assumed a commercial operations date of 2020. All co-fire and repower options analyzed resulted in a higher cost compared to unaltered operations of a unit.
Units with negative or marginal value were included as retirements. Virginia coal-fired and heavy oil-fired facilities tended to have less upside potential in the long run under the RGGI scenario. The results of the analysis are included in Figure 6.9.1, as described in Section 6.8 above and shown in each Alternative Plan. A negative sign in Figure 6.9.1 indicates an adverse impact (i.e., increase) on cost to the customer by continuing to operate the unit, while a positive sign indicates a decrease in cost to the customer. No decisions have been finalized concerning these units as work continues to lower costs and verify grid stability.
Figure 6.9.1 - Retirement Analysis Results Units        No CO2 Tax      RGGI        Federal CO2 Program Chesterfield 5 - 6      +            -                    +
Clover 1 - 2        +          Marginal                +
Mt. Storm 1 - 3        +            +                    +
Possum Point 5          -            -                    -
Yorktown 3        Marginal        -                  Marginal PJM DOM Zone Load Forecast For the past two years, PJMs load forecast for the DOM Zone has been lower than the Companys load forecast. To show the effect of a lower load forecast on a generation expansion plan, the Company has included an additional analysis in this 2018 Plan. In this analysis, the Company used PJMs load forecast for the DOM Zone that was included in the 2018 PJM Load Forecast Report.
This PJM load forecast was run in the PLEXOS model under the No CO2 Tax scenario provided by 124
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan ICF. The optimized results were then compared against the results identified in Plan A: No CO2 Tax.
Figure 6.9.2 reflects the build plan and Figure 6.9.3 reflects the NPV of that comparison. While the Company includes this analysis, it reiterates the issues with PJMs load forecasting methodology discussed in Section 2.3.
Figure 6.9.2 - PJM Low Load Build Plan Plan A:              No CO2 Tax Year No CO2 Tax          (PJM Low Load)
Approved DSM: 304 MW, 805 GWh by 2033 Greensville            Greensville 2019 SLR NUG(1)              SLR NUG(1)
US-3 Solar 1            US-3 Solar 1 2020 SLR (320 MW)            SLR (320 MW)
CVOW                    CVOW US-3 Solar 2            US-3 Solar 2 SLR (400 MW)            SLR (400 MW) 2021      Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)  Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)
CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)      CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)
Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)        Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)
PP5                      PP5 CT                      CT 2022        SLR (480 MW)            SLR (480 MW)
YT3                    YT3 CT                      CT 2023 SLR (480 MW)            SLR (480 MW)
CT                      CT 2024 SLR (480 MW)            SLR (480 MW)
CT 2025                                SLR (320 MW)
SLR (400 MW)
CT 2026                                SLR (480 MW)
SLR (480 MW)
CT 2027 SLR (480 MW) 2028        SLR (480 MW)                    CT 2029                                  SLR (80 MW) 2030                CT                      CT CT 2031                                  SLR (80MW)
SLR (160 MW)
CT 2032                                        CT SLR (240 MW) 2033        SLR (80 MW)            SLR (480 MW)
Key: Belle: Bellemeade Power Station; Bremo: Bremo Power Station; CH: Chesterfield Power Station; CT: Combustion Turbine (2 units);
CVOW: Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind; Greensville: Greensville County Power Station; MB: Mecklenburg Power Station; Pitt: Pittsylvania Power Station; PP: Possum Point Power Station; SLR: Generic Solar; SLR NUG: Solar NUG; US-3 Solar 1: US-3 Solar 1 Facility; US-3 Solar 2: US-3 Solar 2 Facility; YT: Yorktown Power Station.
Note: 1) Solar NUGs include 660 MW of NC solar NUGs and 100 MW of VA solar NUGs by 2020.
: 2) These units entered into cold reserve in April 2018.
: 3) Pittsylvania is planned to enter cold reserve in August 2018.
: 4) These units are planned to enter cold reserve in December 2018.
Figure 6.9.3 - Low Load NPV Comparison No CO2 Tax (PJM Low Load)
NPV Compliance Cost ($B)          $                    (3.35) 125
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 6 - Development of the Integrated Resource Plan 6.10 2018 PLAN As discussed in Chapter 1, the uncertainty with respect to the timing and form of CO2 regulation at the federal level remains high. Although Virginia is actively pursuing regulations and has proposed a state program linked to RGGI, a final regulation is not expected until later this year. Until the rules that will be applicable to Virginia are certain, it is difficult to recommend a specific long-term plan.
Therefore, as mentioned in Chapter 1, the 2018 Plan offers no Preferred Plan and no recommended long-term path forward other than the guidance offered in the STAP discussed in Chapter 7.
Rather, this 2018 Plan offers the Alternative Plans for consideration, each of which may be a likely path forward once the uncertainty of GHG regulation is resolved. Plan A offers a path forward should no CO2 regulations be adopted of any kind. Plans B through E each identify plans that are compliant with a possible form of RGGI or a Federal CO2 Program that, based on ICFs view, may occur in the future. Collectively, this analysis and presentation of the Alternative Plans, along with the decision to pursue the STAP, comprises the 2018 Plan.
126
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan CHAPTER 7 - SHORT-TERM ACTION PLAN The STAP provides the Companys strategic plan for the next five years (2019 to 2023), as well as a discussion of the specific short-term actions the Company is taking to meet the initiatives discussed in this 2018 Plan. The Company continues to proactively position itself in the short-term to address the evolving developments surrounding future CO2 emission mitigation rules or regulations, or societal and customer preferences for the benefit of all stakeholders over the long term. Over the next five years, the Company expects to:
* Continue development of planning processes that will reasonably assess the actions and costs associated with the integration of large volumes of intermittent renewable generation on the transmission and distribution networks;
* Enhance and upgrade the Companys existing transmission and distribution grid;
* Enhance the Companys access to natural gas supplies, including shale gas supplies from multiple supply basins;
* Construct additional generation while maintaining a balanced fuel mix;
* Continue to lower the Companys emissions footprint;
* Continue to develop and implement a renewable strategy that supports the Virginia RPS goals and the North Carolina REPS requirements;
* Implement cost-effective programs based on measures identified in the 2017 DSM Potential Study and continue to implement cost-effective DSM programs in Virginia and North Carolina (DSM provisions of the GTSA will be reflected in future plans after the completion of the stakeholder process required in the Act);
* Continue to evaluate potential unit retirements in light of changing market conditions and regulatory requirements;
* Enhance reliability and customer service;
* Continue development of the CVOW facility; and
* Continue analysis and evaluations for the 20-year nuclear license extensions for Surry Units 1 and 2, and North Anna Units 1 and 2.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 7 - Short-Term Action Plan 7.1 DIFFERENCES IN THE STAP FROM THE 2017 PLAN TO THE 2018 PLAN Figure 7.1.1 displays the differences between the 2017 STAP and the 2018 STAP.
Figure 7.1.1 - Changes between the 2017 and 2018 Short-Term Action Plans Supply-side Resources Year          New                  New                                                                                  Demand-side Retrofit        Cold Storage                  Retire Conventional          Renewable                                                                                Resources1 Belle (2), Bremo 3&4(2),                            Approved DSM 2018                              SLR NUG                          CH 3&4(4), MB 1&2(2),          YT 1&2(5)
Pitt(3), PP 3&4(4) 2019      Greensville            SLR NUG(6)        PP5 - SNCR US-3 Solar 1 2020 SLR US-3 Solar 2                                                    Belle, Bremo 3&4 2021                                SLR                                                      CH 3&4, MB 1&2, Pitt CVOW (7)                                                            PP 3-5 2022            CT                  SLR                                                            CH 3&4, YT3 2023            CT                  SLR Key: Retrofit: Additional environmental control reduction equipment; Retire: Remove a unit from service; Belle: Bellemeade Power Station; Bremo: Bremo Power Station; CH: Chesterfield Power Station; US-3 Solar 1: US-3 Solar 1 Facility; CVOW: Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project; Greensville: Greensville County Power Station; MB: Mecklenburg Power Station; Pitt: Pittsylvania Power Station; PP: Possum Point Power Station; SNCR: Selective Non-Catalytic Reduction; SLR NUG: Solar NUG; SLR: Generic Solar: US-3 Solar 2: US-3 Solar 2 Facility; YT: Yorktown Power Station.
Color Key: Blue: Updated resource since 2017 Plan; Red with Strike: 2017 Plan resource replacement; Black: No change from 2017 Plan.
Note: 1) DSM capacity savings increases throughout the Planning Period.
: 2) These generating units entered cold reserve in April 2018.
: 3) Pittsylvania is planned to enter cold reserve in August 2018.
: 4) These generating units are planned to enter cold reserve in December 2018.
: 5) Yorktown Units 1 and 2 ceased operations on April 15, 2017 to comply with the MATS rule. They are now available for emergency operation per PJM.
: 6) Solar NUG capacity changed to 760 MW total in VA and NC.
: 7) 12 MW (nameplate) CVOW was previously referred to as VOWTAP in the 2017 Plan.
A more detailed discussion of the activities over the next five years is provided in the following sections.
7.2 GENERATION RESOURCES Over the next five years, the Company expects to take the following actions related to existing and proposed generation resources:
* Place the Greensville County Power Station (1,585 MW), approved on March 29, 2016, into service by 2019;
* Continue technical evaluations and aging management programs required to support a second license extension of the Companys existing Surry Units 1 and 2 and North Anna Units 1 and 2; and
* Submit an application for the second renewed operating licenses for Surry Units 1 and 2 by the end of the first quarter of 2019 and for North Anna Units 1 and 2 by the end of 2020.
Figure 7.2.1 lists the generation plants that are currently under construction and are expected to be operational by 2023. Figure 7.2.2 lists the generation plants that are currently under development and are expected to be operational by 2023 subject to SCC approval.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 7 - Short-Term Action Plan Figure 7.2.1 - Generation under Construction Forecasted                                                                                                          Capacity (Net MW)
Unit Name                  Location      Primary Fuel            Unit Type COD1                                                                                                      Nameplate    Summer      Winter 2019      Greensville County Power Station        VA          Natural Gas      Intermediate/Baseload    1,585        1,585      1,710 Note: 1) Commercial Operation Date.
Figure 7.2.2 - Generation under Development1 Summer        Winter Forecasted                                                                                    Nameplate Capacity Unit                Location  Primary Fuel      Unit Type                              Capacity      Capacity COD                                                                                                (MW)
(Net MW)      (Net MW) 2020                  US-3 Solar 1              VA          Solar        Intermittent            142                33            33 2021                  US-3 Solar 2              VA          Solar        Intermittent              98                22            22 2021                      CVOW                  VA          Wind          Intermittent              12                2            2 Ongoing        Surry Unit 1 Nuclear Extension    VA        Nuclear        Baseload                838                838          875 Ongoing        Surry Unit 2 Nuclear Extension    VA        Nuclear        Baseload                838                838          875 Ongoing      North Anna Unit1 Nuclear Extension  VA        Nuclear        Baseload                838                838          868 Ongoing    North Anna Unit 2 Nuclear Extension  VA        Nuclear        Baseload                834                834          863 Note: 1) All Generation under Development projects and planned capital expenditures are preliminary in nature and subject to regulatory and/or Board of Directors approvals.
7.3 RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES Approximately 533 MW of qualifying renewable generation is currently in operation. Over the next five years, the Company expects to take the following actions regarding renewable energy resources:
Virginia
* Achieve 61 MW of biomass capacity at VCHEC by 2023;
* Meet its targets under the Virginia RPS Program by applying renewable generation from existing qualified facilities and purchasing cost-effective RECs;
* Submit its Annual Report to the SCC detailing its efforts towards the RPS plan;
* Apply for SCC approval of US-3 Solar 1 and US-3 Solar 2 Facilities in 2018;
* Continue development of CVOW; and
* Continue development of solar PV resources consistent with the generic solar facilities included in Figure 7.3.1.
North Carolina
* Submit its 2018 REPS Compliance Report for compliance year 2017 in August 2018;
* Submit its annual REPS Compliance Plan (filed as North Carolina Plan Addendum 1 to this 2018 Plan); and
* Enter into or negotiate PPAs with approximately 660 MW (nameplate) of North Carolina solar NUGs by 2020.
Figure 7.3.1 lists the Companys renewable resources included in all Alternative Plans for the next five years.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 7 - Short-Term Action Plan Figure 7.3.1 - Renewable Resources by 2023 Nameplate Resource MW Existing Resources 1      533 VCHEC Biomass              61 Solar NUGs 2              760 CVOW                        12 US-3 Solar 1              142 US-3 Solar 2                98 Solar 2020                320 Solar 2021                400 Solar 2022                480 Solar 2023                480 Note: 1) Existing Resources include hydro, biomass (excluding VCHEC), and solar.
: 2) Solar NUGs include forecasted VA and NC solar NUGs through 2020.
7.4 TRANSMISSION Virginia The following planned Virginia transmission projects detailed in Figure 7.4.1 are pending SCC approval or are tentatively planned for filing with the SCC:
* Line #2176 Gainesville to Haymarket and Line #2169 Haymarket to Loudoun - New 230kV Lines and New 230kV Substation;
* Line #217 Chesterfield to Lakeside Rebuild;
* Line #549 Dooms to Valley Rebuild;
* Line #112 Fudge Hollow to Lowmoor Partial Rebuild;
* Line #231 Landstown to Thrasher Rebuild;
* Line #211 and Line #228 Chesterfield to Hopewell Partial Rebuild;
* Line #550 Mount Storm to Valley Rebuild;
* Line #2189 Glebe to Potomac River - New 230 kV Line;
* Line #2175 Idylwood to Tysons - New 230 kV Line and New 230 kV Tysons Substation;
* Line #205 and Line #2003 Chesterfield to Tyler Partial Rebuild; and
* Line #247 Suffolk to Swamp Rebuild.
Figure 7.4.1 lists the major transmission additions including line voltage, capacity, and expected operation target dates.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 7 - Short-Term Action Plan Figure 7.4.1 - Planned Transmission Additions Line Voltage Line Capacity Line Terminals                                                              Target Date Location (kV)        (MVA)
Line #47 Kings Dominion to Fredericksburg Rebuild                                  115          353          May-18      VA Line #4 Bremo to Cartersville Uprate                                              115          151          May-18      VA Line #2183 Brambleton to Poland Road - New 230 kV Line and New 230 kV 230          1,047        May-18      VA Substation Line #2174 Vint Hill to Wheeler - New 230 kV Line                                  230          1,047        Jun-18      VA Line #553 Cunningham to Elmont Rebuild                                            500          4,330        Jun-18      VA Line #1009 Ridge Road to Chase City Rebuild                                        115          346          Jun-18      VA Line #1020 Pantego to Trowbridge - New 115 kV Line                                115          346          Jun-18      NC Line #1015 Scotland Neck to South Justice Branch - New 115 kV Line                115          346          Sep-18      NC Line #2086 Remington Combustion Turbine to Warrenton Rebuild                      230          1,047        Oct-18      VA Line #48 Sewells Point to Thole Street and Line #107 Oakwood to Sewells Point                317 (#48) 115                        Dec-18      VA Partial Rebuild                                                                              353 (#107)
Line #585 Carsons to Rogers Road Rebuild                                          500          4,330        Dec-18      VA Line #54 Carolina to Woodland Reconductor                                          115          174          Dec-18      NC Line #2161 Wheeler to Gainesville Uprate                                          230          1,047        Dec-18      VA Line #34 Skiffes Creek to Yorktown and Line #61 Whealton to Yorktown Partial 115        353 (#34)      May-19      VA Rebuild Line #582 Surry to Skiffes Creek - New 500 kV Line                                500          4,330        May-19      VA Line #159 Acca to Hermitage Reconductor                                            115          353          May-19      VA Line #2138 Skiffes Creek to Whealton - New 230 kV Line                            230          1,047        May-19      VA Line #171 Chase City to Boydton Plank Road Rebuild                                115          393          Jun-19      VA Line #534 Cunningham to Dooms Rebuild                                              500          4,330        Jun-19      VA Line #82 Everetts to Leggetts Crossroads Delivery Point Rebuild                    115          353          Dec-19      NC Line #166 and Line #67 Greenwich to Burton Rebuild                                115          353          Dec-19      VA Line #90 Carolina to Kerr Dam Rebuild                                              115          346          Dec-19    VA/NC Line #130 Clubhouse to Carolina Rebuild                                            115          394          Dec-19    VA/NC Line #65 Norris Bridge Rebuild                                                    115          147          Dec-19      VA Line #18 Possum Point to Smoketown and Line #145 Smoketown to Possum 115          524          Dec-19      VA Point Rebuild Line #547 Bath County to Lexington Series Capacitor Upgrade                        500          3,397        Apr-20      VA Line #548 Bath County to Valley Series Capacitor Upgrade                          500          3,397        Apr-20      VA Line #2153 Remington to Gordonsville - New 230 kV Line                            230          1,047        Jun-20      VA Line #217 Chesterfield to Lakeside Rebuild                                        230          1,047        Jun-20      VA Line #549 Dooms to Valley Rebuild                                                  500          4,330        Jun-20      VA Line #112 Fudge Hollow to Lowmoor Partial Rebuild                                  138          314          Oct-20      VA Line #154 Twittys Creek to Pamplin Rebuild                                        115          353          Dec-20      VA Line #76 and Line #79 Yorktown to Peninsula Rebuild                                115          346          Dec-20      VA Line #231 Landstown to Thrasher Rebuild                                            230          1,046        Dec-20      VA Line #211 and Line #228 Chesterfield to Hopewell Partial Rebuild                  230          477          Dec-20      VA Line #550 Mount Storm to Valley Rebuild                                            500          4,330        Jun-21      VA Line #2176 Gainesville to Haymarket and Line #2169 Haymarket to Loudoun -
230          1,047          Jul-21    VA New 230 kV Lines and New 230 kV Substation Line #127 Buggs Island to Plywood Rebuild                                          115          353          Dec-21      VA Line #120 Dozier to Thompsons Corner Partial Rebuild                              115          346          Dec-21      VA Line #16 Great Bridge to Hickory and Line #74 Chesapeake Energy Center to 115          353          Dec-21      VA Great Bridge Rebuild Line #2175 Idylwood to Tysons - New 230 kV Line and Tysons Substation 230          1,047        Jun-22      VA Rebuild Line #2001 Possum Point to Occoquan Reconductor and Uprate                        230          1,047        Jun-22      VA Line #227 Beaumeade to Brambleton - Cut-in Belmont Substation                      230          1,057        Jun-22      VA Line #29 Fredericksburg to Possum Point Partial Rebuild                            115          361          Dec-22      VA Line #205 and Line #2003 Chesterfield to Tyler Partial Rebuild                    230          1,047        Dec-22      VA Line #247 Suffolk to Swamp Rebuild                                                230          1,047        Dec-22    VA/NC Line #2144 Winfall to Swamp Rebuild                                                230          1,047        Dec-22      NC Line #101 Mackeys to Creswell Rebuild                                              115          262          Dec-22      NC Line #43 Staunton to Harrisonburg Rebuild                                          115          262          Dec-22      VA Line #2189 Glebe to Potomac River - New 230 kV Line                                230          900          2022      VA 131
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 7 - Short-Term Action Plan 7.5 DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT The Company continues to evaluate the measures identified in the 2017 DSM Potential Study and may include additional measures in DSM programs in future Plans. The measures included in the 2017 DSM Potential Study still need to be part of a program design effort that looks at the viability of the potential measures as a single or multi-measure DSM program. These fully-designed DSM programs would also need to be evaluated for cost effectiveness. Under the GTSA, which will become law on July 1, 2018, the Company will propose energy efficiency programs with projected costs of at least $870 million for the period beginning July 1, 2018, and ending July 1, 2028, including its existing approved energy efficiency programs. This legislation included requirements for a new stakeholder process, as discussed further in Section 7.6. The Company will work through that process to develop future programs for filing.
Virginia The Company will continue its analysis of future programs and may file for approval of new or revised programs that meet the Company requirements for new DSM resources. The Company filed its Phase VII DSM Application in October 2017, seeking approval of an extension of the Phase IV Residential Income and Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program (Case No. PUR-2017-00129).
The SCC is expected to issue its Final Order in this case by June 2018.
North Carolina The Company will continue its analysis of future programs and will file for approval in North Carolina for those programs that have been approved in Virginia that continue to meet the Company requirements for new DSM resources. On July 28, 2017, the Company filed in Docket No. E-22, Sub 543 for NCUC approval of the Non-Residential Prescriptive Program that was approved in Virginia in Case No. PUE-2016-00111. On October 16, 2017, the NCUC approved this new DSM program, which has been available to qualifying North Carolina customers since January 2018.
Figure 7.5.1 lists the projected demand and energy savings by 2023 from the approved DSM programs.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 7 - Short-Term Action Plan Figure 7.5.1 - DSM Projected Savings By 2023 Projected MW Projected GWh Program                                                          Status (VA/NC)
Reduction    Savings Air Conditioner Cycling Program                              91            -          Approved / Approved Residential Low Income Program                                2            10 Completed / Completed Residential Lighting Program                                  -            -
Commercial Lighting Program                                  -            1 Closed / Closed Commercial HVAC Upgrade                                      1            6 Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program              11            -      Extension Approved / Rejected Non-Residential Energy Audit Program                          -            2 Non-Residential Duct Testing and Sealing Program            11            68 Residential Bundle Program                                  11            52 Completed / Completed Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program                6            34 Residential Duct Sealing Program                        -            1 Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program                  -            -
Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program                  5            17    Extension Rejected / Completed Non-Residential Window Film Program                          42            46 Non-Residential Lighting Systems & Controls Program          34          213          Approved / Approved Non-Residential Heating and Cooling Efficiency Program      47          127 Extension Under Consideration /
Income and Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program            3            14 Suspended Residential Appliance Recycling Program                      1            10              Completed Small Business Improvement Program                          17            64          Approved / Approved Residential Retail LED Lighting Program (NC only)            1            7          No Plans / Approved Non-Residential Prescriptive Program                        32          217          Approved / Approved 7.6 GTSA COMPLIANCE In the 2017 Plan Final Order, the SCC directed the Company to include in future filings detailed plans to implement the mandates contained in [the GTSA]. Figure 7.6.1 provides a list of mandates and the accompanying citation to the GTSA. The sections that follow outline these mandates and detail the Companys plans related to each one over the five-year STAP period. It should be noted that several provisions of the GTSA encourage specific public policies, such as greater deployment of renewable energy, without taking the form of a mandate.
Figure 7.6.1 - GTSA Mandates Mandate                                                      Citation Evaluate in future Plans: (i) electric grid transformation projects, (ii) energy                      Va. Code &sect; 56-599; efficiency measures, and (iii) combined heat and power or waste heat to                                  EC 12; EC 18 power Adjust rates to reflect the reduction in corporate income taxes                                            EC 6; EC 7 Provide one-time, voluntary bill credits                                                                    EC 4; EC 5 Offer Manufacturing and Commercial Competitiveness Retention Credit                                            EC 11 File triennial review                                                                            Va. Code &sect; 56-585.1; Va.
Code &sect; 56-585.1:1 Report on potential improvements to renewable programs                                                          EC 17 Report on economic development activities                                                                      EC 16 Report on the feasibility of providing broadband using utility infrastructure                                  EC 13 Report on energy efficiency programs                                                                            EC 15 Fund energy assistance and weatherization pilot program                                            Va. Code &sect; 56-585.1:2 Propose a plan to deploy 30 MW of battery storage under new pilot                                          EC 9; EC 10 program Propose a plan for electric distribution grid transformation projects                            Va. Code &sect; 56-585.1 A 6 Propose a plan for energy conservation measures with a projected cost of                                        EC 15 no less than $870 million 133
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 7 - Short-Term Action Plan Plan-Related Mandates The GTSA amends Va. Code &sect; 56-599 to require the Company to evaluate electric grid transformation projects and energy efficiency measures. While these new provisions do not take effect until July 1, 2018, the Company discusses its plans related to these provisions below.
The GTSA also requires the Company to include specific analysis in its future Plans. Specifically, Enactment Clause (EC) 18 requires certain analysis related to energy efficiency measures, and EC 12 requires consideration of combined heat and power or waste heat to power measures or generation alternatives. The Company plans to include this required analysis in its next Plan.
Rate-Related Mandates The GTSA contains a number of mandates related to customer rates. First, the Company must reduce its rates for generation and distribution services to reflect the reduction in corporate income taxes under the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (the TCJA). As set forth in EC 7 of the GTSA, the Company plans to reduce its existing rates for generation and distribution services on an interim basis, within 30 days of July 1, 2018, in an amount sufficient to reduce its annual revenues from such rates by an aggregate amount of $125 million. The Company will then provide the SCC with the necessary information to true-up . . . this interim reduction amount to the actual annual reduction in corporate tax obligations of [the Company] as of the effective date of the [TCJA], as set forth in EC 6. In carrying out these mandates, the Company will comply with the SCCs April 16, 2018 Order in Case No. PUR-2018-00055.
Second, the Company must issue one-time, voluntary generation and distribution services bill credits. As set forth in EC 4 of the GTSA, the Company plans to no later than 30 days following July 1, 2018, . . . provide to its current customers a one-time, voluntary generation and distribution services bill credit, to be allocated on a historic test period energy usage basis, in an aggregate amount of $133 million. Then, as set forth in EC 5, the Company plans to no later than 30 days after January 1, 2019, . . . provide to its current customers a one-time, voluntary generation and distribution services bill credit, to be allocated on a historic test period energy usage basis, in an aggregate amount of $67 million. In carrying out these madates, the Company will comply with the SCCs April 16, 2018 Order in Case No. PUR-2018-00053.
Next, the GTSA requires the Company to provide the Manufacturing and Commercial Competitiveness Retention Credit to eligible customers. The Company plans to offer this credit to eligible customers.
Finally, the GTSA outlines the structure through which Company rates will be set going forward. The Company plans to make a triennial review filing by March 31, 2021.
Mandated Reports The GTSA next includes a list of reports that the Company must file with the SCC and others.
Figure 7.6.2 provides a list of required reports. The Company plans to file these mandated reports by the statutory deadline.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 7 - Short-Term Action Plan Figure 7.6.2 - GTSA Mandated Reports Report                                          Deadline                    Citation Report on potential improvements to renewable                            November 1, 2018                  EC 17 programs Report on economic development activities                                December 1, 2018                  EC 16 Report on the feasibility of providing broadband using                  December 1, 2018                  EC 13 utility infrastructure Report on energy efficiency programs                                        July 1, 2019                  EC 15 (then annually)
Pilot Program Mandates The GTSA contains two mandates related to pilot programs. First, under the amended language in Va. Code &sect; 56-585.1:2, the Company must continue its pilot program for energy assistance and weatherization for low income, elderly, and disabled individuals at no less than $13 million for each year the utility is providing such service. The Company plans to continue this pilot program and will develop a plan to meet the required funding.
Second, the GTSA requires the SCC to establish a pilot program for storage batteries. The GTSA mandates that the Company submit a proposal to deploy up to 30 MW of batteries. The Company plans to submit a proposal compliant with the GTSA and with the rules and guidelines to be established by the SCC.
Mandate Related to Electric Distribution Grid Transformation Projects EC 15 of the GTSA mandates that the Company petition the SCC, not more than once annually, for approval of a plan for electric distribution grid transformation projects. The GTSA defines electric distribution grid transformation projects as follows:
Electric distribution grid transformation project means a project associated with electric distribution infrastructure, including related data analytics equipment, that is designed to accommodate or facilitate the integration of utility-owned or customer-owned renewable electric generation resources with the utilitys electric distribution grid or to otherwise enhance electric distribution grid reliability, electric distribution grid security, customer service, or energy efficiency and conservation, including advanced metering infrastructure; intelligent grid devices for real time system and asset information; automated control systems for electric distribution circuits and substations; communications networks for service meters; intelligent grid devices and other distribution equipment; distribution system hardening projects for circuits, other than the conversion of overhead tap lines to underground service, and substations designed to reduce service outages or service restoration times; physical security measures at key distribution substations; cyber security measures; energy storage systems and microgrids that support circuit-level grid stability, power quality, reliability, or resiliency or provide temporary backup energy supply; electrical facilities and infrastructure necessary to support electric vehicle charging systems; LED street light conversions; and new customer information platforms designed to provide improved customer access, greater service options, and expanded access to energy usage information.
The Company plans to file a grid transformation plan by the end of 2018.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Chapter 7 - Short-Term Action Plan Mandate Related to Energy Conservation Measures EC 15 of the GTSA directs the Company to develop a proposed program of energy conservation measures with a projected cost of no less than $870 million for the period beginning July 1, 2018, and ending July 1, 2028. At least five percent of the proposed programs must benefit low-income, elderly, and disabled individuals. The program must provide for the submission of petitions for approval to design, implement, and operate energy efficiency programs under Va. Code &sect; 56-585.1 A 5 c. In developing these programs, the Company must utilize a stakeholder process to receive input and feedback on the development of its energy efficiency programs. The stakeholder process will be facilitated by an independent monitor compensated under the funding provided pursuant to Va. Code &sect; 56-592.1 E, and will include representatives from the SCC, the Attorney Generals Office of Consumer Counsel, the Department of Mines, Minerals and Energy, energy efficiency program implementers, energy efficiency providers, residential and small business customers, and any other interested stakeholder who the independent monitor deems appropriate for inclusion. As noted above, the Company must submit an annual report on the status of these programs beginning July 1, 2019.
See Section 5.5 and 7.4 for more details on the Companys current plans for future DSM initiatives.
Going forward, the Company plans to develop a proposed program of energy conservation measures as directed by the GTSA using its current plans and past experiences with its DSM programs. The Company plans to utilize the stakeholder process, once established pursuant to Va.
Code &sect; 56-592.1 E, to develop its energy efficiency programs as required.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan APPENDIX
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 1A - Plan A: No CO2 Tax - Capacity & Energy Capacity 26,000 24,000 Market Purchases 22,000 5,191 Potential Generation 20,000 MW 304 18,000 Generation Under Construction      1,585 NUGs            Approved DSM 144 16,000 Existing Generation 16,490 14,000 12,000 10,000 Energy 120,000                                                              Market Purchases 110,000 100,000                                                        Potential Generation      13,097 805 90,000                    Approved DSM Generation Under Construction 12,016 GWh  80,000  NUGs 1,402 70,000 76,788 60,000                                Existing Generation1 50,000 40,000 Note: 1) Accounts for potential unit retirements and rating changes to existing units in the Plan, and reflects summer ratings.
137
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 1A - Plan B: Virginia RGGI (unlimited imports) - Capacity & Energy Capacity 26,000 24,000 Market Purchases 22,000 6,781 Potential Generation 20,000 MW    18,000 NUGs 304 16,000                        Approved DSM            Generation Under Construction    1,585 144 14,000 Existing Generation 15,045 12,000 10,000 Energy 120,000 110,000                  Market Purchases 100,000 16,860 90,000 Potential Generation GWh Approved DSM                                                              805 80,000 NUGs                                        Generation Under Construction    11,661 70,000 1,402 60,000                                Existing Generation1 67,170 50,000 40,000 Note: 1) Accounts for potential unit retirements and rating changes to existing units in the Plan, and reflects summer ratings.
138
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 1A - Plan C: RGGI (unlimited imports) - Capacity & Energy Capacity 26,000 24,000 Market Purchases 22,000 6,781 Potential Generation 20,000 MW    18,000 NUGs 304 16,000                        Approved DSM            Generation Under Construction    1,585 144 14,000 Existing Generation 15,045 12,000 10,000 Energy 120,000 110,000                  Market Purchases 100,000 16,860 90,000 Potential Generation GWh Approved DSM                                                              805 80,000 NUGs                                        Generation Under Construction    11,661 70,000 1,402 60,000                                Existing Generation1 67,170 50,000 40,000 Note: 1) Accounts for potential unit retirements and rating changes to existing units in the Plan, and reflects summer ratings.
139
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 1A - Plan D: RGGI (limited imports) - Capacity & Energy Capacity 26,000 24,000 Market Purchases 22,000 6,808 20,000                                                              Potential Generation MW  18,000 NUGs 304 Approved DSM          Generation Under Construction        1,585 16,000 144 14,000 Existing Generation 15,045 12,000 10,000 Energy 120,000 Market Purchases 110,000 100,000 Potential Generation        23,036 90,000 GWh Approved DSM 80,000                                                                                            805 NUGs Generation Under Construction      11,650 70,000 1,402 60,000                                Existing Generation1 65,932 50,000 40,000 Note: 1) Accounts for potential unit retirements and rating changes to existing units in the Plan, and reflects summer ratings.
140
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 1A - Plan E: Federal CO2 Program - Capacity & Energy Capacity 26,000 24,000 Market Purchases 22,000 Potential Generation 5,023 20,000 MW 304 18,000 Generation Under Construction      1,585 Approved DSM NUGs 144 16,000 16,490 Existing Generation 14,000 12,000 10,000 Energy 120,000 Market Purchases 110,000 100,000 Potential Generation    15,487 90,000                      Approved DSM 805 GWh Generation Under Construction 80,000  NUGs                                                                            11,964 1,402 70,000 72,169 60,000                                Existing Generation1 50,000 40,000 Note: 1) Accounts for potential unit retirements and rating changes to existing units in the Plan, and reflects summer ratings.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 1B - CPP Scenario As stated earlier in this 2018 Plan, the Company no longer believes the CPP to be a current or pending regulation. As such, the Company has not included a CPP scenario as part of the Alternative Plans. The Company has included, however, a single CPP assessment. In this case, the Company determined the optimized generation expansion plan should the U.S. adopt CO2 regulations consistent with the CPP. This evaluation assumed a mass-based program for Virginia that regulated existing and new generation as that term is defined in the CPP.
The figures below reflect the build plan and NPV of the CPP scenario as compared to Plan A: No CO2 Tax.
Plan A:
Year                                CPP Scenario No CO2 Tax Approved DSM: 304 MW, 805 GWh by 2033 Greensville            Greensville 2019 SLR NUG(1)              SLR NUG(1)
US-3 Solar 1            US-3 Solar 1 2020 SLR (320 MW)            SLR (320 MW)
CVOW                    CVOW US-3 Solar 2            US-3 Solar 2 SLR (400 MW)            SLR (400 MW) 2021      Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)  Belle(2), Bremo3-4(2)
CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)      CH3-4(4), MB1-2(2)
Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)      Pitt(3), PP3-4(4)
PP5                    PP5 CT                      CT 2022        SLR (480 MW)            SLR (480 MW)
YT3                    YT3 CT                      CT 2023 SLR (480 MW)            SLR (480 MW)
CT                      CT 2024 SLR (480 MW)            SLR (480 MW)
CT                      CT 2025 SLR (400 MW)            SLR (400 MW)
CT                      CT 2026 SLR (480 MW)            SLR (480 MW)
CT                      CT 2027 SLR (480 MW)            SLR (480 MW)
CT 2028        SLR (480 MW)
SLR (480 MW) 2029                                SLR (480 MW)
CT 2030                CT SLR (480 MW)
CT 2031                                SLR (480 MW)
SLR (160 MW)
CT 2032                                        CT SLR (240 MW) 2033        SLR (80 MW)            SLR (480 MW)
Key: Belle: Bellemeade Power Station; Bremo: Bremo Power Station; CH: Chesterfield Power Station; CT: Combustion Turbine (2 units);
CVOW: Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind; Greensville: Greensville County Power Station; MB: Mecklenburg Power Station; Pitt: Pittsylvania Power Station; PP: Possum Point Power Station; SLR: Generic Solar; SLR NUG: Solar NUG; US-3 Solar 1: US-3 Solar 1 Facility; US-3 Solar 2: US-3 Solar 2 Facility;YT: Yorktown Power Station.
Note: 1) Solar NUGs include 660 MW of NC solar NUGs and 100 MW of VA solar NUGs by 2020.
: 2) These units entered into cold reserve in April 2018.
: 3) Pittsylvania is planned to enter cold reserve in August 2018.
: 4) These units are planned to enter cold reserve in December 2018.
CPP Scenario NPV Compliance Cost ($B)                $                      0.85 142
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2A - Total Sales by Customer Class (DOM LSE) (GWh)
Street Sales Public            and Year Residential Commercial      Industrial                                        for          Total Authority          Traffic Resale Lighting 2008      29,646    28,484            9,779          10,529              282        1,990        80,710 2009      29,904    28,455            8,644          10,448              276        1,932        79,658 2010      32,547    29,233            8,512          10,670              281        1,921        83,164 2011      30,779    28,957            7,960          10,555              273        2,011        80,536 2012      29,174    28,927            7,849          10,496              277        1,984        78,709 2013      30,184    29,372            8,097          10,261              276        1,956        80,145 2014      31,290    29,964            8,812          10,402              261        1,981        82,710 2015      30,923    30,282            8,765          10,159              275        1,856        82,260 2016      28,213    31,366            8,715          10,161              253        1,609        80,318 2017      29,737    32,292            8,638          10,555              258        1,607        83,086 2018      30,245    32,166            8,700          10,443              284        1,601        83,439 2019      30,743    32,714            8,814          10,575              286        1,618        84,750 2020      31,071    33,532            8,757          10,628              288        1,644        85,919 2021      31,305    34,663            8,605          10,777              289        1,659        87,299 2022      31,541    35,861            8,439          10,887              291        1,675        88,694 2023      31,844    36,983            8,289          11,069              293        1,692        90,169 2024      32,291    38,137            8,218          11,201              294        1,715        91,856 2025      32,539    39,131            8,192          11,234              296        1,727        93,120 2026      32,874    40,194            8,201          11,367              297        1,745        94,678 2027      33,211    41,190            8,213          11,470              299        1,764        96,146 2028      33,695    42,200            8,245          11,615              300        1,791        97,846 2029      34,007    42,920            8,211          11,789              302        1,811        99,040 2030      34,399    43,653            8,204          11,965              303        1,835        100,358 2031      35,032    44,410            8,190          11,936              304        1,857        101,728 2032      35,363    45,409            8,263          12,184              305        1,880        103,406 2033      35,649    45,967            8,269          12,175              307        1,903        104,270 Note: Historic (2008 - 2017), Projected (2018 - 2033).
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2B- Virginia Sales by Customer Class (DOM LSE) (GWh)
Street Sales Public            and Year Residential Commercial      Industrial                                        for          Total Authority          Traffic Resale Lighting 2008      28,100    27,679            8,064          10,391              273        1,901        76,408 2009      28,325    27,646            7,147          10,312              268        1,883        75,581 2010      30,831    28,408            6,872          10,529              273        1,870        78,784 2011      29,153    28,163            6,342          10,423              265        1,958        76,304 2012      27,672    28,063            6,235          10,370              269        1,934        74,544 2013      28,618    28,487            6,393          10,134              267        1,906        75,804 2014      29,645    29,130            6,954          10,272              253        1,930        78,184 2015      29,293    29,432            7,006          10,029              266        1,803        77,829 2016      26,652    30,537            6,947          10,033              245        1,556        75,971 2017      28,194    31,471            6,893          10,429              250        1,555        78,792 2018      28,609    31,312            6,937          10,316              276        1,548        78,998 2019      29,098    31,856            7,052          10,448              278        1,563        80,296 2020      29,415    32,669            6,995          10,503              280        1,589        81,451 2021      29,640    33,796            6,844          10,652              281        1,604        82,817 2022      29,866    34,989            6,678          10,764              283        1,619        84,199 2023      30,159    36,106            6,528          10,946              284        1,635        85,659 2024      30,568    37,174            6,534          11,070              286        1,658        87,290 2025      30,803    38,143            6,514          11,104              287        1,669        88,520 2026      31,120    39,179            6,521          11,235              289        1,686        90,029 2027      31,439    40,149            6,530          11,337              290        1,705        91,450 2028      31,897    41,135            6,555          11,480              291        1,731        93,089 2029      32,193    41,836            6,528          11,652              293        1,750        94,252 2030      32,564    42,550            6,523          11,826              294        1,773        95,530 2031      33,162    43,288            6,512          11,797              295        1,794        96,849 2032      33,476    44,262            6,570          12,043              297        1,817        98,465 2033      33,747    44,806            6,575          12,033              298        1,839        99,298 Note: Historic (2008 - 2017), Projected (2018 - 2033).
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2C - North Carolina Sales by Customer Class (DOM LSE) (GWh)
Street Sales Public            and Year Residential Commercial      Industrial                                        for          Total Authority          Traffic Resale Lighting 2008      1,546      806              1,715              138              8          88          4,302 2009      1,579      809              1,497              136              8          49          4,078 2010      1,716      825              1,640              141              8          51          4,380 2011      1,626      795              1,618              132              8          53          4,232 2012      1,502      864              1,614              126              8          50          4,165 2013      1,567      885              1,704              127              8          50          4,341 2014      1,645      834              1,858              130              8          51          4,526 2015      1,630      850              1,759              130              8          53          4,430 2016      1,562      829              1,768              128              8          53          4,347 2017      1,542      821              1,744              126              8          52          4,293 2018      1,635      854              1,763              127              8          54          4,441 2019      1,645      858              1,762              126              8          54          4,454 2020      1,655      863              1,762              125              8          55          4,468 2021      1,665      867              1,761              124              8          55          4,482 2022      1,676      872              1,761              123              8          56          4,496 2023      1,686      877              1,760              122              8          57          4,510 2024      1,723      963              1,684              130              9          57          4,566 2025      1,736      988              1,679              131              9          58          4,600 2026      1,754    1,015              1,680              132              9          58          4,649 2027      1,772    1,040              1,683              133              9          59          4,696 2028      1,798    1,066              1,689              135              9          60          4,757 2029      1,814    1,084              1,682              137              9          61          4,787 2030      1,835    1,102              1,681              139              9          61          4,828 2031      1,869    1,122              1,678              139              9          62          4,879 2032      1,887    1,147              1,693              142              9          63          4,940 2033      1,902    1,161              1,694              142              9          64          4,972 Note: Historic (2008 - 2017), Projected (2018 - 2033).
145
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2D - Total Customer Count (DOM LSE)
Street Sales Public            and Year Residential Commercial      Industrial                                          for          Total Authority          Traffic Resale Lighting 2008  2,124,089    230,715                598          29,008            2,513            5      2,386,927 2009  2,139,604    232,148                581          29,073            2,687            5      2,404,099 2010  2,157,581    232,988                561          29,041            2,798            5      2,422,974 2011  2,171,795    233,760                535          29,104            3,031            4      2,438,228 2012  2,187,670    234,947                514          29,114            3,246            3      2,455,495 2013  2,206,657    236,596                526          28,847            3,508            3      2,476,138 2014  2,229,639    237,757                631          28,818            3,653            3      2,500,500 2015  2,252,438    239,623                662          28,923            3,814            3      2,525,463 2016  2,275,551    240,804                654          29,069            3,941            3      2,550,022 2017  2,298,894    242,091                648          28,897            4,149            3      2,574,683 2018  2,328,926    244,229                645          28,874            4,334            3      2,607,011 2019  2,359,240    246,742                644          28,999            4,478            3      2,640,106 2020  2,387,645    249,140                643          29,111            4,622            3      2,671,165 2021  2,414,477    251,434                642          29,206            4,766            3      2,700,528 2022  2,441,710    253,749                641          29,288            4,910            3      2,730,301 2023  2,469,705    256,114                640          29,366            5,054            3      2,760,882 2024  2,497,455    258,466                639          29,438            5,198            3      2,791,198 2025  2,524,076    260,749                638          29,501            5,342            3      2,820,310 2026  2,549,318    262,946                637          29,556            5,486            3      2,847,947 2027  2,573,458    265,074                636          29,603            5,630            3      2,874,405 2028  2,596,881    267,155                635          29,644            5,774            3      2,900,093 2029  2,619,731    269,201                634          29,680            5,918            3      2,925,167 2030  2,642,166    271,220                633          29,711            6,062            3      2,949,795 2031  2,664,350    273,224                632          29,738            6,206            3      2,974,153 2032  2,686,064    275,199                631          29,763            6,350            3      2,998,010 2033  2,708,306    277,201                630          29,781            6,494            3      3,022,415 Note: Historic (2008 - 2017), Projected (2018 - 2033).
146
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2E - Virginia Customer Count (DOM LSE)
Street Sales Public            and Year Residential Commercial      Industrial                                          for          Total Authority          Traffic Resale Lighting 2008  2,023,592    215,212                538          27,141            2,116            3      2,268,602 2009  2,038,843    216,663                522          27,206            2,290            3      2,285,526 2010  2,056,576    217,531                504          27,185            2,404            3      2,304,203 2011  2,070,786    218,341                482          27,252            2,639            2      2,319,502 2012  2,086,647    219,447                464          27,265            2,856            2      2,336,680 2013  2,105,500    221,039                477          26,996            3,118            2      2,357,131 2014  2,128,313    222,143                579          26,966            3,267            2      2,381,269 2015  2,150,818    223,946                611          27,070            3,430            2      2,405,877 2016  2,173,472    225,029                603          27,223            3,560            2      2,429,889 2017  2,196,466    226,270                596          27,041            3,768            2      2,454,143 2018  2,226,232    228,562                585          27,012            3,940            2      2,486,332 2019  2,256,190    231,039                584          27,140            4,083            2      2,519,037 2020  2,284,260    233,402                583          27,256            4,226            2      2,549,730 2021  2,310,777    235,663                582          27,353            4,369            2      2,578,747 2022  2,337,689    237,945                581          27,439            4,512            2      2,608,168 2023  2,365,355    240,275                580          27,518            4,656            2      2,638,386 2024  2,392,778    242,594                579          27,592            4,799            2      2,668,344 2025  2,419,086    244,844                578          27,658            4,942            2      2,697,111 2026  2,444,031    247,009                577          27,715            5,085            2      2,724,420 2027  2,467,888    249,106                576          27,763            5,229            2      2,750,564 2028  2,491,035    251,158                575          27,805            5,372            2      2,775,947 2029  2,513,616    253,174                575          27,842            5,515            2      2,800,723 2030  2,535,787    255,164                574          27,873            5,658            2      2,825,059 2031  2,557,710    257,139                573          27,902            5,801            2      2,849,127 2032  2,579,168    259,086                572          27,927            5,945            2      2,872,700 2033  2,601,149    261,059                571          27,946            6,088            2      2,896,814 Note: Historic (2008 - 2017), Projected (2018 - 2033).
147
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2F - North Carolina Customer Count (DOM LSE)
Street Sales Public            and Year Residential Commercial      Industrial                                        for          Total Authority          Traffic Resale Lighting 2008    100,497    15,502                60            1,867              397            2        118,325 2009    100,761    15,485                59            1,867              398            2        118,573 2010    101,005    15,457                56            1,857              395            2        118,772 2011    101,009    15,418                53            1,852              392            2        118,726 2012    101,024    15,501                50            1,849              390            1        118,815 2013    101,158    15,557                50            1,851              390            1        119,007 2014    101,326    15,614                52            1,853              386            1        119,231 2015    101,620    15,677                52            1,853              384            1        119,586 2016    102,079    15,775                51            1,846              381            1        120,133 2017    102,429    15,821                52            1,857              381            1        120,541 2018    102,694    15,667                60            1,862              394            1        120,679 2019    103,050    15,704                60            1,858              395            1        121,069 2020    103,385    15,738                60            1,855              396            1        121,435 2021    103,700    15,771                60            1,852              397            1        121,782 2022    104,021    15,804                60            1,850              398            1        122,134 2023    104,350    15,839                60            1,847              398            1        122,495 2024    104,676    15,872                60            1,845              399            1        122,854 2025    104,990    15,905                60            1,843              400            1        123,199 2026    105,287    15,937                60            1,842              401            1        123,527 2027    105,571    15,968                60            1,840              401            1        123,841 2028    105,846    15,998                60            1,839              402            1        124,146 2029    106,115    16,027                60            1,838              403            1        124,444 2030    106,379    16,056                60            1,837              404            1        124,737 2031    106,640    16,085                60            1,836              405            1        125,026 2032    106,895    16,113                60            1,835              405            1        125,310 2033    107,157    16,142                60            1,835              406            1        125,601 Note: Historic (2008 - 2017), Projected (2018 - 2033).
148
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2G - Zonal Summer and Winter Peak Demand (MW)
Summer Winter Peak Peak Year                                  Demand Demand (MW)
(MW) 2008                  19,051              17,028 2009                  18,137              17,904 2010                  19,140              17,689 2011                  20,061              17,889 2012                  19,249              16,881 2013                  18,763              17,623 2014                  18,692              19,784 2015                  18,980              21,651 2016                  19,538              18,948 2017                  18,902              19,661 2018                  19,938              18,666 2019                  20,282              18,974 2020                  20,568              19,291 2021                  20,867              19,748 2022                  21,161              20,191 2023                  21,477              20,517 2024                  22,010              20,862 2025                  22,381              21,175 2026                  22,757              21,534 2027                  23,006              22,024 2028                  23,228              22,394 2029                  23,567              22,537 2030                  23,960              22,696 2031                  24,230              22,935 2032                  24,422              23,161 2033                  24,610              23,608 Note: Historic (2008 - 2017), Projected (2018 - 2033).
149
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2H - Summer & Winter Peaks for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                      Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                              Schedule 5 POWER SUPPLY DATA (ACTUAL)                                                                  (PROJECTED) 2015      2016      2017    2018    2019    2020  2021    2022  2023    2024    2025  2026  2027  2028  2029    2030    2031  2032    2033 II. Load (MW)
: 1. Summer
: a. Adjusted Summer Peak(1)      16,461    16,821    16,241    17,413  17,674  17,766 18,026  18,284 18,559  19,025  19,351 19,682 19,899 20,093 20,389  20,733  20,967 21,133    21,297
: b. Other Commitments (2)            72        93      109          4    43      202    203      202    204    202    200    198    198    198    198    198    200    201      202
: c. Total System Summer Peak    16,533    16,914    16,350    17,417  17,718  17,968 18,229  18,486 18,762  19,227  19,551 19,880 20,097 20,292 20,587  20,931  21,167 21,334    21,499
: d. Percent Increase in Total Summer Peak                    1.7%      2.3%      -3.3%      6.5%  1.7%    1.4%    1.5%    1.4%  1.5%    2.5%    1.7%  1.7%  1.1%  1.0%  1.5%    1.7%    1.1%  0.8%      0.8%
: 2. Winter (1)
: a. Adjusted Winter Peak        18,616    16,080    16,509    16,038  16,261  16,380 16,772  17,160 17,439  17,736  18,009 18,320 18,743 19,061 19,185  19,322  19,527 19,721    20,104
: b. Other Commitments (2)            72        93      109      -18.5    22      176    175      167    168    168    164    160    157    157    156    155    155    155      156
: c. Total System Winter Peak    18,688    16,173    16,618    16,019  16,283  16,555 16,947  17,328 17,607  17,904  18,172 18,480 18,901 19,218 19,341  19,477  19,682 19,876    20,260
: d. Percent Increase in Total Winter Peak                  11.0%    -13.5%      2.8%    -3.6%  1.6%    1.7%    2.4%    2.2%  1.6%    1.7%    1.5%  1.7%  2.3%  1.7%  0.6%    0.7%    1.1%  1.0%      1.9%
(1) Adjusted load from Appendix 2I.
(2) Includes firm Additional Forecast, Conservation Efficiency, and Peak Adjustments from Appendix 2I.
150
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2I - Projected Summer & Winter Peak Load & Energy Forecast for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                                  Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                                  Schedule 1 I. PEAK LOAD AND ENERGY FORECAST (1)
(ACTUAL)                                                                    (PROJECTED) 2015        2016        2017    2018      2019    2020    2021  2022    2023  2024    2025  2026    2027    2028    2029    2030    2031    2032    2033
: 1. Utility Peak Load (MW)
A. Summer 1a. Base Forecast                            16,530    16,914      16,350    17,417    17,718 17,968  18,229 18,486  18,762 19,227  19,551 19,880  20,097  20,292  20,587  20,931  21,167  21,334  21,499 1b. Additional Forecast NCEMC                              0          -          -    150      150        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
: 2. Conservation, Efficiency(5)                  -72        -93      -109      -154      -193    -202  -203    -202  -204  -202    -200  -198    -198    -198    -198    -198    -200    -201    -202 (2)(5)
: 3. Demand Response                              -81      -103          -70      -99    -100    -100  -101    -101  -102  -102    -102  -102    -102    -102    -102    -102    -102    -102    -102 (2)(3)
: 4. Demand Response-Existing                      -2          -2          -1        -1      -1      -1    -1      -1    -1    -1      -1    -1      -1      -1      -1      -1      -1      -1      -1
: 5. Peak Adjustment                                -          -          -
: 6. Adjusted Load                            16,461    16,821      16,241    17,413    17,674 17,766  18,026 18,284  18,559 19,025  19,351 19,682  19,899  20,093  20,389  20,733  20,967  21,133  21,297
: 7. % Increase in Adjusted Load                0.7%        2.2%      -3.4%      7.2%    1.5%    0.5%  1.5%    1.4%  1.5%  2.5%    1.7%  1.7%    1.1%    1.0%    1.5%    1.7%    1.1%    0.8%    0.8%
(from previous year)
B. Winter 1a. Base Forecast                            18,688    16,173      16,618    16,019    16,283 16,555  16,947 17,328  17,607 17,904  18,172 18,480  18,901  19,218  19,341  19,477  19,682  19,876  20,260 1b. Additional Forecast NCEMC                              0          -          -    150      150        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
: 2. Conservation, Efficiency(5)                  -72        -93      -109    -131.5    -172.2  -175.6 -175.2  -167.3 -168.2 -167.8  -163.5 -160.3  -157.4  -157.0  -156.0  -155.3  -154.7  -155.0  -155.6
: 3. Demand Response (2)(4)                        -5          -4          -5        -8      -8      -9    -9    -10    -11    -11    -11    -11    -11    -11    -11    -11    -11    -11    -11 (2)(3)
: 4. Demand Response-Existing                      -2          -2          -1        -1      -1      -1    -1      -1    -1    -1      -1    -1      -1      -1      -1      -1      -1      -1      -1
: 5. Adjusted Load                            18,616    16,080      16,509    16,038    16,261 16,380  16,772 17,160  17,439 17,736  18,009 18,320  18,743  19,061  19,185  19,322  19,527  19,721  20,104
: 6. % Increase in Adjusted Load                9.9%    -13.6%        2.7%    -2.9%    1.4%    0.7%  2.4%    2.3%  1.6%  1.7%    1.5%  1.7%    2.3%    1.7%    0.7%    0.7%    1.1%    1.0%    1.9%
: 2. Energy (GWh)
A. Base Forecast                            84,755    84,698      84,046    89,276    90,579 90,738  92,101 93,611  95,144 96,951  98,329 99,935 101,448 103,185 104,300 105,538 106,851 108,421 109,248 B. Additional Forecast Future BTM(6)                        -          -          -    -416      -416    -416  -416    -416  -416  -416    -416  -416    -416    -416    -416    -416    -416    -416    -416 C. Conservation & Demand Response (5)          -460        -556        -660      -805      -930    -933  -882    -840  -836  -826    -811  -801    -795    -795    -795    -795    -798    -801    -805 (2)(3)
D. Demand Response-Existing                        -          -          -        -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
E. Adjusted Energy                          84,295    84,142      83,386    88,056    89,233 89,390  90,803 92,355  93,892 95,709  97,102 98,718 100,237 101,974 103,089 104,326 105,637 107,203 108,027 F. % Increase in Adjusted Energy              0.5%      -0.2%      -0.9%      5.6%    1.3%    0.2%  1.6%    1.7%  1.7%  1.9%    1.5%  1.7%    1.5%    1.7%    1.1%    1.2%    1.3%    1.5%    0.8%
(1) Actual metered data.
(2) Demand response programs are classified as capacity resources and are not included in adjusted load.
(3) Existing DSM programs are included in the load forecast.
(4) Actual historical data based upon measured and verified EM&V results.
(5) Actual historical data based upon measured and verified EM&V results. Projected values represent modeled DSM firm capacity.
(6) Future BTMG, which is not included in the Base forecast.
151
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2J - Required Reserve Margin for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                        Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                                                                      Schedule 6 POWER SUPPLY DATA (continued)
(ACTUAL)                                                                                    (PROJECTED) 2015      2016      2017    2018    2019        2020      2021      2022      2023      2024          2025      2026      2027      2028      2029      2030      2031      2032        2033 (1)
I. Reserve Margin (Including Cold Reserve Capability)
: 1. Summer Reserve Margin (1)
: a. MW                                3,742    3,919    3,506    1,356  2,622        2,595    2,190    2,191    2,283    2,264        2,304    2,339    2,429    2,443    2,495    2,481    2,522    2,563      2,507
: b. Percent of Load                  22.7%    23.2%    21.4%      7.8%  14.8%        14.6%    12.2%    12.0%    12.3%    11.9%        11.9%    11.9%    12.2%    12.2%    12.2%    12.0%    12.0%    12.1%      11.8%
(3)
: c. Actual Reserve Margin              N/A        N/A      N/A    6.9%  13.7%        13.5%      7.7%      3.8%      5.3%      5.6%          6.7%      7.8%      7.2%      6.7%      7.8%      8.6%      9.6%      9.3%        8.9%
: 2. Winter Reserve Margin (1)
: a. MW                                  N/A        N/A      N/A    4,430  4,745        4,750    4,374    4,405    4,528    4,572        4,649    4,724    4,838    4,872    4,961    4,991    5,059    5,117      5,078
: b. Percent of Load                    N/A        N/A      N/A    27.6%  29.2%        29.0%    26.1%    25.7%    26.0%    25.8%        25.8%    25.8%    25.8%    25.6%    25.9%    25.8%    25.9%    25.9%      25.3%
(3)
: c. Actual Reserve Margin              N/A        N/A      N/A      N/A    N/A          N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A          N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A        N/A (1)(2)
I. Reserve Margin (Excluding Cold Reserve Capability)
: 1. Summer Reserve Margin (1)
: a. MW                                3,742    3,919    3,506    1,356  2,622        2,595    2,190    2,191    2,283    2,264        2,304    2,339    2,429    2,443    2,495    2,481    2,522    2,563      2,507
: b. Percent of Load                  22.7%    23.2%    21.4%      7.8%  14.8%        14.6%    12.2%    12.0%    12.3%    11.9%        11.9%    11.9%    12.2%    12.2%    12.2%    12.0%    12.0%    12.1%      11.8%
(3)
: c. Actual Reserve Margin              N/A        N/A      N/A    6.9%  13.7%        13.5%      7.7%      3.8%      5.3%      5.6%          6.7%      7.8%      7.2%      6.7%      7.8%      8.6%      9.6%      9.3%        8.9%
: 2. Winter Reserve Margin (1)
: a. MW                                  N/A        N/A      N/A    4,430  4,745        4,750    4,374    4,405    4,528    4,572        4,649    4,724    4,838    4,872    4,961    4,991    5,059    5,117      5,078
: b. Percent of Load                    N/A        N/A      N/A    27.6%  29.2%        29.0%    26.1%    25.7%    26.0%    25.8%        25.8%    25.8%    25.8%    25.6%    25.9%    25.8%    25.9%    25.9%      25.3%
(3)
: c. Actual Reserve Margin              N/A        N/A      N/A      N/A    N/A          N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A          N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A        N/A (4)
III. Annual Loss-of-Load Hours              N/A        N/A      N/A      N/A    N/A          N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A          N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A        N/A (1) To be calculated based on Total Net Capability for summer and winter.
(2) The Company and PJM forecast a summer peak throughout the Planning Period.
(3) Does not include spot purchases of capacity.
(4) The Company follows PJM reserve requirements which are based on LOLE.
152
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 2K - Economic Assumptions used In the Sales and Hourly Budget Forecast Model (Annual Growth Rate)
Economic Assumptions Used In the Sales and Hourly Budget Forecast Model (Annual Growth Rate)
Year                                2018    2019    2020    2021    2022    2023    2024    2025    2026    2027    2028    2029    2030    2031  2032  2033  CAGR Population: Total, (Ths.)                                              8,515  8,573  8,634    8,696  8,759    8,823    8,888    8,952  9,014  9,075    9,135    9,194  9,252    9,309  9,365  9,419  0.7%
Disposable Personal Income; (Mil. 09$; SAAR)                          363,555 369,194 371,690 378,132 387,173 396,157 404,592 413,849 424,004 435,123 447,424 459,841 472,332 485,246 498,065 510,946      2.3%
Per Capita Disposable Personal Income; (C 09$; SAAR)                    42.7    43.1    43.1    43.5    44.2    44.9    45.5    46.2    47.0    48.0    49.0    50.0    51.1    52.1  53.2  54.3  1.6%
Residential Permits: Total, (#, SAAR)                                  33,671 38,269 41,608 42,926 42,490 41,125 40,044 40,088 39,574 37,906 36,837 36,021 35,410 34,978 34,459 33,850                      0.0%
Employment: Total Manufacturing, (Ths., SA)                              233    231    226      223    222      219      216      213    211    208      206      203    201      199    197    195  -1.2%
Employment: Total Government, (Ths., SA)                                718.8  723.0  726.4    732.2  738.8    745.1    750.4    755.6  760.9  766.4    772.1    778.0  783.9    789.5  793.9  798.0  0.7%
Employment: Military personnel, (Ths., SA)                              140    138    136      134    134      133      133      132    132    131      131      131    130      130    129    129  -0.6%
Employment: State and local government, (Ths., SA)                      540    544    547      552    559      565      570      575    580    585      591      597    602      607    612    615  0.9%
Employment: Commercial Sector (Ths., SA)                              2,878.8 2,907.4 2,909.2 2,932.1 2,969.3 3,003.3 3,025.2 3,044.4 3,064.9 3,084.2 3,106.5 3,127.7 3,147.6 3,168.7 3,190.5 3,213.8      0.7%
Gross State Product: Total Manufacturing; (Bil. Chained 2009 $; SAAR)  38,731  39,439  39,564  40,605  41,365  41,785  42,108  42,589  43,153  43,705  44,363  44,984  45,547  46,146 46,751 47,379  1.4%
Gross State Product: Total; (Bil. Chained 2009 $; SAAR)                460.8  471.0  476.2    488.6  500.5    510.6    519.8    529.9  540.6  551.2    562.9    574.3  585.4    596.6  608.0  619.6  2.0%
Gross State Product: Local Government; (Bil. Chained 2009 $; SAAR)    36,483  36,681  36,843  37,446  38,096  38,766  39,329  39,871  40,433  41,002  41,564  42,072  42,553  43,026 43,501 43,978 1.25%
Source: Economy.com October 2017 vintage Year                                2017    2018    2019    2020    2021    2022    2023    2024    2025    2026    2027    2028    2029    2030  2031  2032  CAGR Population: Total, (Ths.)                                              8,509  8,574  8,640    8,706  8,772    8,836    8,900    8,964  9,027  9,089    9,150    9,210  9,269    9,327  9,384  9,439  0.7%
Disposable Personal Income; (Mil. 09$; SAAR)                          365,950 377,278 387,490 394,384 401,240 409,165 417,599 426,195 435,536 445,512 456,403 467,756 479,593 491,709 504,174 516,539      2.3%
Per Capita Disposable Personal Income; (C 09$; SAAR)                    43.0    44.0    44.9    45.3    45.8    46.3    46.9    47.6    48.3    49.0    49.9    50.8    51.8    52.7  53.7  54.7  1.6%
Residential Permits: Total, (#, SAAR)                                  42,506 48,313 45,191 40,717 40,897 42,895 43,159 41,366 38,737 36,428 35,057 34,060 33,036 32,699 32,105 30,863                    -2.1%
Employment: Total Manufacturing, (Ths., SA)                              228    227    226      223    220      216      214      211    208    206      204      202    200      198    196    195  -1.1%
Employment: Total Government, (Ths., SA)                                718.7  721.4  724.9    729.1  734.3    740.3    745.8    750.8  755.9  761.3    766.7    772.3  778.1    783.8  789.2  793.4  0.7%
Employment: Military personnel, (Ths., SA)                              135    133    131      129    128      127      127      126    126    125      125      124    124      124    123    123  -0.6%
Employment: State and local government, (Ths., SA)                      539    542    545      549    554      560      565      570    575    580      586      591    596      602    607    611  0.8%
Employment: Commercial Sector (Ths., SA)                              2,844.4 2,895.8 2,946.0 2,970.3 2,983.4 3,003.2 3,029.1 3,053.0 3,077.3 3,102.5 3,127.5 3,152.7 3,179.0 3,206.0 3,234.0 3,263.5      0.9%
Gross State Product: Total Manufacturing; (Bil. Chained 2009 $; SAAR)  39,054 39,979 40,547 40,828 41,230 41,727 42,317 42,896 43,490 44,138 44,831 45,550 46,269 46,973 47,674 48,352                      1.4%
Gross State Product: Total; (Bil. Chained 2009 $; SAAR)                459.0  473.2  483.8    491.2  500.1    510.5    521.3    531.6  542.1  553.2    564.6    575.9  587.3    598.7  610.1  621.5  2.0%
Gross State Product: Local Government; (Bil. Chained 2009 $; SAAR)    35,094 35,409 35,616 35,798 36,188 36,640 37,058 37,452 37,852 38,256 38,638 38,979 39,307 39,623 39,929 40,247                    0.92%
Source: Economy.com October 2016 vintage 153
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3A - Existing Generation Units in Service Company Name:                      Virginia Electric and Power Company                                              Schedule 14a UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (MW)
(1)    MW        MW Unit Name                        Location            Unit Class    Primary Fuel Type C.O.D. Summer    Winter Altavista                          Altavista, VA                Base          Renewable            Feb-1992          51        51 Bath County 1-6                    Warm Springs, VA            Intermediate  Hydro-Pumped Storage Dec-1985      1,808    1,808 Bear Garden                        Buckingham County, VA        Intermediate  Natural Gas-CC      May-2011        622      654 Bellemeade                          Richmond, VA                Intermediate  Natural Gas-CC      Mar-1991          0        0 Bremo 3                            Bremo Bluff, VA              Peak          Natural Gas          Jun-1950          0        0 Bremo 4                            Bremo Bluff, VA              Peak          Natural Gas          Aug-1958          0        0 Brunswick                          Brunswick County, VA        Intermediate  Natural Gas-CC      May-2016      1,376    1,470 Chesapeake CT 1, 2, 4, 6            Chesapeake, VA              Peak          Light Fuel Oil      Dec-1967          51        69 Chesterfield 3                      Chester, VA                  Base          Coal                Dec-1952          0        0 Chesterfield 4                      Chester, VA                  Base          Coal                Jun-1960          0        0 Chesterfield 5                      Chester, VA                  Base          Coal                Aug-1964        336      342 Chesterfield 6                      Chester, VA                  Base          Coal                Dec-1969        670      690 Chesterfield 7                      Chester, VA                  Intermediate  Natural Gas-CC      Jun-1990        197      226 Chesterfield 8                      Chester, VA                  Intermediate  Natural Gas-CC      May-1992        200      236 Clover 1                            Clover, VA                  Base          Coal                Oct-1995        220      222 Clover 2                            Clover, VA                  Base          Coal                Mar-1996        219      219 Darbytown 1                        Richmond, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  May-1990          84        98 Darbytown 2                        Richmond, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  May-1990          84        97 Darbytown 3                        Richmond, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Apr-1990          84        95 Darbytown 4                        Richmond, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Apr-1990          84        97 Elizabeth River 1                  Chesapeake, VA              Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jun-1992        116      121 Elizabeth River 2                  Chesapeake, VA              Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jun-1992        116      120 Elizabeth River 3                  Chesapeake, VA              Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jun-1992        116      124 Gaston Hydro                        Roanoake Rapids, NC          Intermediate  Hydro-Conventional  Feb-1963        220      220 Gordonsville 1                      Gordonsville, VA            Intermediate  Natural Gas-CC      Jun-1994        109      139 Gordonsville 2                      Gordonsville, VA            Intermediate  Natural Gas-CC      Jun-1994        109      139 Gravel Neck 1-2                    Surry, VA                    Peak          Light Fuel Oil      Aug-1970          28        38 Gravel Neck 3                      Surry, VA                    Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Oct-1989          85        98 Gravel Neck 4                      Surry, VA                    Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jul-1989          85        97 Gravel Neck 5                      Surry, VA                    Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jul-1989          85        98 Gravel Neck 6                      Surry, VA                    Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Nov-1989          85        97 Hopewell                            Hopewell, VA                Base          Renewable            Jul-1989          51        51 Ladysmith 1                        Woodford, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  May-2001        151      183 Ladysmith 2                        Woodford, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  May-2001        151      183 Ladysmith 3                        Woodford, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jun-2008        161      183 Ladysmith 4                        Woodford, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jun-2008        160      183 Ladysmith 5                        Woodford, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Apr-2009        160      183 Lowmoor CT 1-4                      Covington, VA                Peak          Light Fuel Oil      Jul-1971          48        65 Mecklenburg 1                      Clarksville, VA              Base          Coal                Nov-1992          0        0 Mecklenburg 2                      Clarksville, VA              Base          Coal                Nov-1992          0        0 (1) Commercial Operation Date 154
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3A cont. - Existing Generation Units in Service Company Name:                        Virginia Electric and Power Company                                              Schedule 14a UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (MW)
(1)    MW        MW Unit Name                      Location              Unit Class    Primary Fuel Type C.O.D. Summer    Winter Mount Storm 1                        Mt. Storm, WV                Base          Coal                Sep-1965        554      569 Mount Storm 2                        Mt. Storm, WV                Base          Coal                Jul-1966        555      570 Mount Storm 3                        Mt. Storm, WV                Base          Coal                Dec-1973        520      537 Mount Storm CT                      Mt. Storm, WV                Peak          Light Fuel Oil      Oct-1967          11        15 North Anna 1                        Mineral, VA                  Base          Nuclear              Jun-1978        838      868 North Anna 2                        Mineral, VA                  Base          Nuclear              Dec-1980        834      863 North Anna Hydro                    Mineral, VA                  Intermediate  Hydro-Conventional  Dec-1987          1        1 Northern Neck CT 1-4                Warsaw, VA                  Peak          Light Fuel Oil      Jul-1971          47        70 Pittsylvania                        Hurt, VA                    Base          Renewable            Jun-1994          0        0 Possum Point 3                      Dumfries, VA                Peak          Natural Gas          Jun-1955          0        0 Possum Point 4                      Dumfries, VA                Peak          Natural Gas          Apr-1962          0        0 Possum Point 5                      Dumfries, VA                Peak          Heavy Fuel Oil      Jun-1975        786      805 Possum Point 6                      Dumfries, VA                Intermediate  Natural Gas-CC      Jul-2003        573      615 Possum Point CT 1-6                  Dumfries, VA                Peak          Light Fuel Oil      May-1968          72      106 Remington 1                          Remington, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jul-2000        153      187 Remington 2                          Remington, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jul-2000        151      187 Remington 3                          Remington, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jul-2000        152      187 Remington 4                          Remington, VA                Peak          Natural Gas-Turbine  Jul-2000        152      188 Roanoke Rapids Hydro                Roanoake Rapids, NC          Intermediate  Hydro-Conventional  Sep-1955          95        95 Rosemary                            Roanoke Rapids, NC          Peak          Natural Gas-CC      Dec-1990        165      165 Scott Solar                          Powhatan, VA                Intermittent  Renewable            Dec-2016          4        17 Solar Partnership Program            Distributed                  Intermittent  Renewable            Jan-2012          2        7 Southampton                          Franklin, VA                Base          Renewable            Mar-1992          51        51 Surry 1                            Surry, VA                    Base          Nuclear              Dec-1972        838      875 Surry 2                            Surry, VA                    Base          Nuclear              May-1973        838      875 Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center  Virginia City, VA            Base          Coal                Jul-2012        610      624 Warren                              Front Royal, VA              Intermediate  Natural Gas-CC      Dec-2014      1,342    1,436 Whitehouse Solar                    Louisa, VA                    Intermittent  Renewable            Dec-2016          5        20 Woodland Solar                      Isle of Wight, VA            Intermittent  Renewable            Dec-2016          4        19 Yorktown 1                          Yorktown, VA                  Base          Coal                Jul-1957          0        0 Yorktown 2                          Yorktown, VA                  Base          Coal                Jan-1959          0        0 Yorktown 3                          Yorktown, VA                  Peak          Heavy Fuel Oil      Dec-1974        790      792 Subtotal - Base                                                                                                  7,185    7,406 Subtotal - Intermediate                                                                                          6,652    7,039 Subtotal - Peak                                                                                                  4,413    4,931 Subtotal - Intermittent                                                                                              15        63 Total                                                                                                              18,265    19,440 Note: Summer MW for solar generation represents firm capacity.
(1)  Commercial Operation Date.
155
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3B - Other Generation Units Company Name:                                              Virginia Electric and Power Company                                          Schedule 14b UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (kW)
Primary    kW      Capacity    Contract    Contract Unit Name                      Location        Unit Class Fuel Type Summer      Resource    Start      Expiration (1)
Non-Utility Generation (NUG) Units SEI Birchwood                                  King George, VA      Base          Coal              217,800      Yes      11/15/1996  11/14/2021 Behind-The-Meter (BTM) Generation Units Alexandria/Arlington - Covanta                          VA          NUG          MSW                  21,000      No        1/29/1988    1/28/2023 Brasfield Dam                                          VA          Must Take    Hydro                2,500      No      10/12/1993  Auto renew Suffolk Landfill                                        VA          Must Take    Methane              3,000      No        11/4/1994  Auto renew Columbia Mills                                          VA          Must Take    Hydro                  343      No        2/7/1985  Auto renew Lakeview (Swift Creek) Dam                              VA          Must Take    Hydro                  400      No      11/26/2008  Auto renew MeadWestvaco (formerly Westvaco)                        VA          NUG          Coal/Biomass      140,000      No        11/3/1982    9/30/2028 Banister Dam                                            VA          Must Take    Hydro                1,785      No        9/28/2008  Auto renew Jockey's Ridge State Park                              NC            Must Take    Wind                    10      No        5/21/2010  Auto renew 302 First Flight Run                                  NC            Must Take    Solar                      3    No        5/5/2010  Auto renew 3620 Virginia Dare Trail N                            NC            Must Take    Solar                      4    No        9/14/2009  Auto renew Weyerhaeuser/Domtar                                    NC            NUG          Coal/biomass      28,400(2)    No        7/27/1991  Auto renew Chapman Dam                                            VA          Must Take    Hydro                  300      No      10/17/1984  Auto renew (3)
Smurfit-Stone Container                                VA          NUG          Coal/biomass      48,400        No        3/21/1981  Auto renew Rivanna                                                VA          Must Take    Hydro                  100      No        4/21/1998  Auto renew Rapidan Mill                                            VA          Must Take    Hydro                  100      No        6/15/2009  Auto renew Burnshire Dam                                          VA          Must Take    Hydro                  100      No        7/11/2016  Auto renew Dairy Energy                                            VA          Must Take    Biomass                400      No        8/2/2011    7/31/2019 Essex Solar Center                                      VA          Must Take    Solar                20,000      No      12/14/2017  12/13/2037 W. E. Partners II                                      NC            Must Take    Biomass                300      No        3/15/2012  Auto renew Plymouth Solar                                        NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        10/4/2012    10/3/2027 W. E. Partners 1                                      NC            Must Take    Biomass                100      No        4/26/2013  Auto renew Dogwood Solar                                          NC            Must Take    Solar                20,000      No        12/9/2014    12/8/2029 HXOap Solar                                            NC            Must Take    Solar                20,000      No      12/16/2014  12/15/2029 Bethel Price Solar                                    NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        12/9/2014    12/8/2029 Jakana Solar                                          NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        12/4/2014    12/3/2029 Lewiston Solar                                        NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No      12/18/2014  12/17/2029 Williamston Solar                                      NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        12/4/2014    12/3/2029 Windsor Solar                                          NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No      12/17/2014  12/16/2029 510 REPP One Solar                                    NC            Must Take    Solar                1,250      No        3/11/2015    3/10/2030 Everetts Wildcat Solar                                NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        3/11/2015    3/10/2030 SolNC5 Solar                                          NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        5/12/2015    5/11/2030 Creswell Aligood Solar                                NC            Must Take    Solar                14,000      No        5/13/2015    5/12/2030 Two Mile Desert Road - SolNC1                          NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        8/10/2015    8/9/2030 SolNCPower6 Solar                                      NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        11/1/2015  10/31/2030 Downs Farm Solar                                      NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        12/1/2015  11/30/2030 GKS Solar- SolNC2                                      NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No      12/16/2015  12/15/2030 Windsor Cooper Hill Solar                              NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No      12/18/2015  12/17/2030 Green Farm Solar                                      NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        1/6/2016    1/5/2031 FAE X - Shawboro                                      NC            Must Take    Solar                20,000      No        1/26/2016    1/25/2031 FAE XVII - Watson Seed                                NC            Must Take    Solar                20,000      No        1/28/2016    1/27/2031 Bradley PVI- FAE IX                                    NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        2/4/2016    2/3/2031 Conetoe Solar                                          NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        2/5/2016    2/4/2031 SolNC3 Solar-Sugar Run Solar                          NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        2/5/2016    2/4/2031 Gates Solar                                            NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        2/8/2016    2/7/2031 Long Farm 46 Solar                                    NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        2/12/2016    2/11/2031 Battleboro Farm Solar                                  NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        2/17/2016    2/16/2031 Winton Solar                                          NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        2/8/2016    2/7/2031 SolNC10 Solar                                          NC            Must Take    Solar                5,000      No        1/13/2016    1/12/2031 (1) In operation as of March 1, 2018.
(2) PPA is for excess energy only, typically 4,000 - 14,000 kW.
(3) PPA is for excess energy only, typically 3,500 kW.
156
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3B cont. - Other Generation Units Company Name:                                    Virginia Electric and Power Company                                      Schedule 14b UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (kW)
Primary    kW    Capacity    Contract    Contract Unit Name              Location        Unit Class Fuel Type Summer  Resource    Start      Expiration Behind-The-Meter (BTM) Generation Units Tarboro Solar                                NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No      12/31/2015  12/30/2030 Bethel Solar                                  NC            Must Take    Solar              4,400    No        3/3/2016    3/2/2031 Garysburg Solar                              NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        3/18/2016    3/17/2031 Woodland Solar                                NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        4/7/2016    4/6/2031 Gaston Solar                                  NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        4/18/2016    4/17/2031 TWE Kelford Solar                            NC            Must Take    Solar              4,700    No        6/6/2016    6/5/2031 FAE XVIII - Meadows                          NC            Must Take    Solar              20,000    No        6/9/2016    6/8/2031 Seaboard Solar                                NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        6/29/2016    6/28/2031 Simons Farm Solar                            NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        7/13/2016    7/12/2031 Whitakers Farm Solar                          NC            Must Take    Solar              3,400    No        7/20/2016    7/19/2031 MC1 Solar                                    NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        8/19/2016    8/18/2031 Williamston West Farm Solar                  NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        8/23/2016    8/22/2031 River Road Solar                              NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        8/23/2016    8/22/2031 White Farm Solar                              NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        8/26/2016    8/25/2031 Hardison Farm Solar                          NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        9/9/2016    9/8/2031 Modlin Farm Solar                            NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        9/14/2016    9/13/2031 Battleboro Solar                              NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        10/7/2016    10/6/2031 Williamston Speight Solar                    NC            Must Take    Solar              15,000    No      11/23/2016  11/22/2031 Barnhill Road Solar                          NC            Must Take    Solar              3,100    No      11/30/2016  11/29/2031 Hemlock Solar                                NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        12/5/2016    12/4/2031 Leggett Solar                                NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No      12/14/2016  12/13/2031 Schell Solar Farm                            NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No      12/22/2016  12/21/2031 FAE XXXV - Turkey Creek                      NC            Must Take    Solar              13,500    No        1/31/2017    1/30/2027 FAE XXII - Baker PVI                          NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        1/30/2017    1/29/2032 FAE XXI -Benthall Bridge PVI                  NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        1/30/2017    1/29/2032 Aulander Hwy 42 Solar                        NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No      12/30/2016  12/29/2031 Floyd Road Solar                              NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        6/19/2017    6/18/2032 Flat Meeks- FAE II                            NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No      10/27/2017  10/26/2032 HXNAir Solar One                              NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No      12/21/2017  12/20/2032 Cork Oak Solar                                NC            Must Take    Solar              20,000    No      12/29/2017  12/28/2032 Sunflower Solar                              NC            Must Take    Solar              16,000    No      12/29/2017  12/28/2032 Davis Lane Solar                              NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No      12/31/2017  12/30/2032 FAE XIX- American Legion PVI                  NC            Must Take    Solar              15,840    No        1/2/2018    1/1/2033 FAE XXV-Vaughn's Creek                        NC            Must Take    Solar              20,000    No        1/2/2018    1/1/2033 TWE Ahoskie Solar Project                    NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        1/12/2018    1/11/2033 Cottonwood Solar                              NC            Must Take    Solar              3,000    No        1/25/2018    1/24/2033 Shiloh Hwy 1108 Solar                        NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        2/9/2018    2/8/2033 Chowan Jehu Road Solar                        NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        2/9/2018    2/8/2033 Phelps 158 Solar Farm                        NC            Must Take    Solar              5,000    No        2/26/2018    2/25/2033 157
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3B cont. - Other Generation Units Company Name:                          Virginia Electric and Power Company                                              Schedule 14b UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (kW)
Primary        kW  Capacity    Contract  Contract Unit Name                    Location      Unit Class Fuel Type  Summer    Resource    Start    Expiration Customer Owned(3)
Ahoskie                Standby          Diesel      2550      No        N/A        N/A Tillery                Standby          Diesel        585    No        N/A        N/A Whitakers              Standby          Diesel    10000      No        N/A        N/A Columbia              Standby          Diesel        400    No        N/A        N/A Grandy                Standby          Diesel        400    No        N/A        N/A Kill Devil Hills      Standby          Diesel        500    No        N/A        N/A Moyock                Standby          Diesel        350    No        N/A        N/A Nags Head              Standby          Diesel        400    No        N/A        N/A Nags Head              Standby          Diesel        450    No        N/A        N/A Roanoke Rapids        Standby          Diesel        400    No        N/A        N/A Conway                Standby          Diesel        500    No        N/A        N/A Conway                Standby          Diesel        500    No        N/A        N/A Roanoke Rapids        Standby          Diesel        500    No        N/A        N/A Corolla                Standby          Diesel        700    No        N/A        N/A Kill Devil Hills      Standby          Diesel        700    No        N/A        N/A Rocky Mount            Standby          Diesel        700    No        N/A        N/A Roanoke Rapids        Standby            Coal      25000      No        N/A        N/A Manteo                Standby          Diesel        300    No        N/A        N/A Conway                Standby          Diesel        800    No        N/A        N/A Lewiston              Standby          Diesel      4000      No        N/A        N/A Roanoke Rapids        Standby          Diesel      1200      No        N/A        N/A Weldon                Standby          Diesel        750    No        N/A        N/A Tillery                Standby          Diesel        450    No        N/A        N/A Elizabeth City        Standby        Unknown      2000      No        N/A        N/A Greenville            Standby          Diesel      1800      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel          50    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel      1270      No        N/A        N/A Alexandria            Standby          Diesel        300    No        N/A        N/A Alexandria            Standby          Diesel        475    No        N/A        N/A Alexandria              Standby          Diesel      2 - 60    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    14000      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    10000      No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby          Diesel      4000      No        N/A        N/A Richmond                Standby          Diesel      4470      No        N/A        N/A Arlington              Standby          Diesel      5650      No        N/A        N/A Richmond                Standby          Diesel    22950      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel          50    No        N/A        N/A Hampton Roads          Standby          Diesel      3000      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel        900    No        N/A        N/A Richmond                Standby          Diesel    20110      No        N/A        N/A Richmond                Standby          Diesel      3500      No        N/A        N/A Richmond                Standby      Natural Gas        10    No        N/A        N/A Richmond                Standby            LP          120    No        N/A        N/A VA Beach                Standby          Diesel      2000      No        N/A        N/A 158
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3B cont. - Other Generation Units Company Name:                          Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                    Schedule 14b UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (kW)
Primary              kW  Capacity    Contract  Contract Unit Name                  Location        Unit Class Fuel Type      Summer    Resource    Start    Expiration Customer Owned(3)
Chesapeake            Standby            Diesel              500    No        N/A        N/A Chesapeake            Standby            Diesel            2500    No        N/A        N/A Fredericksburg        Standby            Diesel              700    No        N/A        N/A Hopewell              Standby            Diesel              75    No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby          Unknown            1000    No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby          Unknown            4500    No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby            Diesel            2000    No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby            Diesel            9000    No        N/A        N/A Portsmouth            Standby            Diesel            2250    No        N/A        N/A VA Beach              Standby            Diesel            3500    No        N/A        N/A VA Beach              Standby            Diesel            2000    No        N/A        N/A Chesterfield          Standby            Diesel            2000    No        N/A        N/A Central VA            Merchant              Coal          92000      No        N/A        N/A Central VA            Merchant              Coal        115000      No        N/A        N/A Williamsburg          Standby            Diesel            2800    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby            Diesel          30000      No        N/A        N/A Charlottesville        Standby            Diesel          40000      No        N/A        N/A Arlington              Standby            Diesel          13042      No        N/A        N/A Arlington              Standby      Diesel/ Natural Gas    5000    No        N/A        N/A Fauquier              Standby            Diesel            1885    No        N/A        N/A Hanover                Standby            Diesel        12709.5    No        N/A        N/A Hanover                Standby          Natural Gas      13759.5    No        N/A        N/A Hanover                Standby                LP            81.25    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby          Natural Gas          1341    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby                LP              126    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby            Diesel              828    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby            Diesel              200    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby            Diesel            8000    No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby            Diesel            1750    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby            Diesel          37000      No        N/A        N/A Chesapeake            Standby          Unknown              750    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Merchant        Natural Gas        50000      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby            Diesel        138000      No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby            Steam            20000      No        N/A        N/A Herndon                Standby            Diesel              415    No        N/A        N/A Herndon                Standby            Diesel              50    No        N/A        N/A VA                    Merchant            Hydro            2700    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby            Diesel          37000      No        N/A        N/A Fairfax County        Standby            Diesel          20205      No        N/A        N/A Fairfax County        Standby          Natural Gas          2139    No        N/A        N/A Fairfax County          Standby              LP              292    No        N/A        N/A Springfield            Standby            Diesel            6500    No        N/A        N/A Warrenton              Standby            Diesel          2 - 750    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby            Diesel            5350    No        N/A        N/A Richmond                Standby            Diesel          16400      No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby            Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A 159
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3B cont. - Other Generation Units Company Name:                          Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                        Schedule 14b UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (kW)
Primary              kW  Capacity    Contract  Contract Unit Name                Location        Unit Class Fuel Type        Summer    Resource    Start    Expiration (3)
Customer Owned Charlottesville        Standby                Diesel              400    No        N/A        N/A Farmville              Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Mechanicsville        Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A King George            Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Chatham                Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Hampton                Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Virginia Beach        Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Portsmouth            Standby                Diesel              400    No        N/A        N/A Powhatan              Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Chesapeake            Standby                Diesel              400    No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Dinwiddie              Standby                Diesel              300    No        N/A        N/A Goochland              Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Portsmouth            Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Fredericksburg        Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby                Diesel          22690      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby                Diesel            5000    No        N/A        N/A Hampton Roads          Standby                Diesel          15100      No        N/A        N/A Herndon                Standby                Diesel            1250    No        N/A        N/A Herndon                Standby                Diesel              500    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby                Diesel            1000    No        N/A        N/A Alexandria            Standby                Diesel          2 - 910    No        N/A        N/A Alexandria            Standby                Diesel            1000    No        N/A        N/A Fairfax                Standby                Diesel          4 - 750    No        N/A        N/A Loudoun                Standby                Diesel            2100    No        N/A        N/A Loudoun                Standby                Diesel              710    No        N/A        N/A Mount Vernon          Standby                Diesel            1500    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby                Diesel                50    No        N/A        N/A Eastern VA              Standby    Black Liquor/Natural Gas  112500      No        N/A        N/A Central VA              Standby              Diesel            1700    No        N/A        N/A Hopewell                Standby              Diesel              500    No        N/A        N/A Falls Church            Standby              Diesel              200    No        N/A        N/A Falls Church            Standby              Diesel              250    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby              Diesel              500    No        N/A        N/A Fredericksburg          Standby              Diesel            4200    No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby                NG              1050    No        N/A        N/A Richmond                Standby              Diesel            6400    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby              Diesel              500    No        N/A        N/A Elkton                  Standby          Natural Gas            6000    No        N/A        N/A Southside VA            Standby              Diesel          30000      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby              Diesel            5000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby              #2 FO              5000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby              Diesel                50    No        N/A        N/A Vienna                  Standby              Diesel            5000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby              Diesel              200    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby              Diesel                50    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby              Diesel            1270    No        N/A        N/A 160
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3B cont. - Other Generation Units Company Name:                          Virginia Electric and Power Company                                            Schedule 14b UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (kW)
Primary      kW  Capacity    Contract  Contract Unit Name                  Location        Unit Class Fuel Type Summer    Resource    Start    Expiration Customer Owned(3)
Alexandria            Standby          Diesel      300    No        N/A        N/A Alexandria            Standby          Diesel      475    No        N/A        N/A Alexandria            Standby          Diesel    2 - 60    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    14000      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    10000      No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby          Diesel    4000      No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel    4470      No        N/A        N/A Arlington              Standby          Diesel    5650      No        N/A        N/A Ashburn                Standby          Diesel    22000      No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel    22950      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel        50    No        N/A        N/A Hampton Roads          Standby          Diesel    3000      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel      900    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel    20110      No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel    3500      No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          NG            10    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby            LP        120    No        N/A        N/A Va Beach              Standby          Diesel    2000      No        N/A        N/A Chesapeake            Standby          Diesel      500    No        N/A        N/A Chesapeake            Standby          Diesel    2500      No        N/A        N/A Fredericksburg        Standby          Diesel      700    No        N/A        N/A Hopewell              Standby          Diesel        75    No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby        Unknown      1000      No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby        Unknown      4500      No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby          Diesel    2000      No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby          Diesel    9000      No        N/A        N/A Portsmouth            Standby          Diesel    2250      No        N/A        N/A Va Beach              Standby          Diesel    3500      No        N/A        N/A Va Beach              Standby          Diesel    2000      No        N/A        N/A Chesterfield          Standby          Diesel    2000      No        N/A        N/A Central VA            Merchant          Coal    92000      No        N/A        N/A Central VA            Merchant          Coal    115000      No        N/A        N/A Williamsburg          Standby          Diesel    2800      No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel    30000      No        N/A        N/A Charlottesville        Standby          Diesel    40000      No        N/A        N/A Arlington              Standby          Diesel    13042      No        N/A        N/A Arlington              Standby        Diesel/NG    5000    No        N/A        N/A Fauquier              Standby          Diesel      1885    No        N/A        N/A Hanover                Standby          Diesel  12709.5    No        N/A        N/A Hanover                Standby          NG      13759.5    No        N/A        N/A Hanover                Standby          LP      81.25    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby          NG        1341    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby          LP        126    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby        Diesel      828    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby        Diesel      200    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby        Diesel      8000    No        N/A        N/A Newport News            Standby        Diesel      1750    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby        Diesel    37000      No        N/A        N/A Chesapeake              Standby      Unknown        750    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Merchant          NG      50000      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby        Diesel  138000      No        N/A        N/A Richmond                Standby        Steam      20000      No        N/A        N/A 161
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3B cont. - Other Generation Units Company Name:                          Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                        Schedule 14b UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (kW)
Primary              kW  Capacity    Contract  Contract Unit Name                  Location        Unit Class Fuel Type        Summer    Resource    Start    Expiration Customer Owned(3)
Herndon                Standby                Diesel              415    No        N/A        N/A Herndon                Standby                Diesel                50    No        N/A        N/A VA                    Merchant              Hydro              2700    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby                Diesel          37000      No        N/A        N/A Fairfax County        Standby                Diesel          20205      No        N/A        N/A Fairfax County        Standby                NG                2139    No        N/A        N/A Fairfax County        Standby                  LP                292    No        N/A        N/A Springfield            Standby                Diesel            6500    No        N/A        N/A Warrenton              Standby                Diesel          2 - 750    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby                Diesel            5350    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby                Diesel          16400      No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Charlottesville        Standby                Diesel              400    No        N/A        N/A Farmville              Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Mechanicsville        Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A King George            Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Chatham                Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Hampton                Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Virginia Beach        Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Portsmouth            Standby                Diesel              400    No        N/A        N/A Powhatan              Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Chesapeake            Standby                Diesel              400    No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Dinwiddie              Standby                Diesel              300    No        N/A        N/A Goochland              Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Portsmouth            Standby                Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Fredericksburg          Standby              Diesel              350    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby              Diesel          22690      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby              Diesel            5000    No        N/A        N/A Hampton Roads          Standby              Diesel          15100      No        N/A        N/A Herndon                Standby              Diesel            1250    No        N/A        N/A Herndon                Standby              Diesel              500    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby              Diesel            1000    No        N/A        N/A Alexandria              Standby              Diesel          2 - 910    No        N/A        N/A Alexandria              Standby              Diesel            1000    No        N/A        N/A Fairfax                Standby              Diesel          4 - 750    No        N/A        N/A Loudoun                Standby              Diesel            2100    No        N/A        N/A Loudoun                Standby              Diesel              710    No        N/A        N/A Mount Vernon            Standby              Diesel            1500    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby              Diesel                50    No        N/A        N/A Eastern VA              Standby    Black liquor/Natural Gas  112500      No        N/A        N/A Central VA              Standby              Diesel            1700    No        N/A        N/A Hopewell                Standby              Diesel              500    No        N/A        N/A Falls Church            Standby              Diesel              200    No        N/A        N/A Falls Church            Standby              Diesel              250    No        N/A        N/A 162
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3B cont. - Other Generation Units Company Name:                          Virginia Electric and Power Company                                          Schedule 14b UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (kW)
Primary      kW  Capacity    Contract  Contract Unit Name                  Location        Unit Class Fuel Type Summer  Resource    Start    Expiration Customer Owned(3)
Northern VA            Standby          Diesel      500    No        N/A        N/A Fredericksburg        Standby          Diesel    4200    No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby          NG        1050    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel    6400    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby          Diesel      500    No        N/A        N/A Elkton                Standby        Nat gas    6000    No        N/A        N/A Southside VA          Standby          Diesel    30000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    5000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          #2 FO      5000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel      50    No        N/A        N/A Vienna                Standby          Diesel    5000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel      200    No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby          Diesel    1000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    1000    No        N/A        N/A Norfolk                Standby          Diesel    1500    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    3000    No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby          Diesel      750    No        N/A        N/A Chesterfield          Standby          Coal      500    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel    1500    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel    1000    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel    1000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    3000    No        N/A        N/A Richmond Metro        Standby          NG      25000    No        N/A        N/A Suffolk                Standby          Diesel    2000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    8000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    21000    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel      500    No        N/A        N/A Hampton Roads          Standby          Diesel    4000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    10000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel    5000    No        N/A        N/A Hampton Roads          Standby          Diesel    12000    No        N/A        N/A West Point            Standby        Unknown    50000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel      100    No        N/A        N/A Herndon                Standby          Diesel    18100    No        N/A        N/A VA                    Merchant          RDF      60000    No        N/A        N/A Stafford              Standby          Diesel    3000    No        N/A        N/A Chesterfield          Standby          Diesel      750    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby          Diesel      750    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel    5150    No        N/A        N/A Culpepper              Standby          Diesel    7000    No        N/A        N/A Richmond                Standby        Diesel    8000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby        Diesel    2000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby        Diesel    6000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby        Diesel      500    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          NG      50000    No        N/A        N/A 163
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3B cont. - Other Generation Units Company Name:                          Virginia Electric and Power Company                                              Schedule 14b UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Existing Supply-Side Resources (kW)
Primary        kW  Capacity    Contract  Contract Unit Name                  Location      Unit Class Fuel Type  Summer    Resource    Start    Expiration (3)
Customer Owned Hampton Roads          Standby        Unknown        4000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel      10000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel      13000    No        N/A        N/A Southside VA          Standby          Water    227000      No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel        300    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel        1000    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel        1500    No        N/A        N/A Richmond              Standby          Diesel          30    No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby          Diesel        1000    No        N/A        N/A Hampton                Standby          Diesel      12000    No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby        Natural gas      3000    No        N/A        N/A Newport News          Standby          Diesel        2000    No        N/A        N/A Petersburg            Standby          Diesel        1750    No        N/A        N/A Various                Standby          Diesel        3000    No        N/A        N/A Various                Standby          Diesel      30000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel        5000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel        2000    No        N/A        N/A Ashburn                Standby          Diesel      16000    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel        6450    No        N/A        N/A Virginia Beach        Standby          Diesel        2000    No        N/A        N/A Ashburn                Standby          Diesel  12 - 2000    No        N/A        N/A Innsbrook-Richmond Standby              Diesel        6050    No        N/A        N/A Northern VA            Standby          Diesel        150    No        N/A        N/A Henrico                Standby          Diesel        500    No        N/A        N/A Virginia Beach        Standby          Diesel        1500    No        N/A        N/A Ahoskie                Standby          Diesel        2550    No        N/A        N/A Tillery                Standby          Diesel        585    No        N/A        N/A Whitakers              Standby          Diesel      10000    No        N/A        N/A Columbia              Standby          Diesel        400    No        N/A        N/A Grandy                Standby          Diesel        400    No        N/A        N/A Kill Devil Hills      Standby          Diesel        500    No        N/A        N/A Moyock                Standby          Diesel        350    No        N/A        N/A Nags Head              Standby          Diesel        400    No        N/A        N/A Nags Head              Standby          Diesel        450    No        N/A        N/A Roanoke Rapids        Standby          Diesel        400    No        N/A        N/A Conway                  Standby          Diesel        500    No        N/A        N/A Conway                  Standby          Diesel        500    No        N/A        N/A Roanoke Rapids          Standby          Diesel        500    No        N/A        N/A Corolla                Standby          Diesel        700    No        N/A        N/A Kill Devil Hills        Standby          Diesel        700    No        N/A        N/A Rocky Mount            Standby          Diesel        700    No        N/A        N/A Roanoke Rapids          Standby          Coal      30000    No        N/A        N/A Manteo                  Standby          Diesel        300    No        N/A        N/A Conway                  Standby          Diesel        800    No        N/A        N/A Lewiston                Standby          Diesel        4000    No        N/A        N/A Roanoke Rapids          Standby          Diesel        1200    No        N/A        N/A Weldon                  Standby          Diesel        750    No        N/A        N/A Tillery                Standby          Diesel        450    No        N/A        N/A Elizabeth City          Standby        Unknown        2000    No        N/A        N/A Greenville              Standby          Diesel        1800    No        N/A        N/A 164
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3C - Equivalent Availability Factor for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program (%)
Company Name:                      Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                Schedule 8 UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Equivalent Availability Factor (%)
(ACTUAL)                                                    (PROJECTED)
Unit Name          2015      2016 2017      2018    2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024 2025 2026  2027  2028  2029  2030  2031  2032  2033 Altavista                              67      63      63      77      78    78    78  78    74    74    74    74  74    74    74    74    74    74    74 Bath County 1-6                        77      80      90      93      94    94    94  95    95    95    95    95  95    95    95    95    95    98    98 Bear Garden                            81      85      80      89      80    86    84  84    88    89    88    90  89    88    89    78    78    87    87 Bellemeade                              83      80      74      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Bremo 3                                  78      86      83      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Bremo 4                                  80      83      85      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Brunswick                                -      83      82    82      80    83    83  76    93    85    93    79  93    93    85    93    93    84    84 Chesapeake CT 1, 2, 4, 6                92      98      99    91      100      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Chesterfield 3                          85      86      50        -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Chesterfield 4                          65      75      55      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Chesterfield 5                          83      74      65    82      84    81    81  84    86    86    86    86  86    86    86    86    86    86    86 Chesterfield 6                          84      74      59    71      85    85    79  85    87    87    87    87  87    87    87    87    87    87    87 Chesterfield 7                          90      67      84    73      94    89    96  87    96    91    96    89  96    81    96    91    96    81    87 Chesterfield 8                          90      66      85    88      96    73    96  87    96    89    96    89  96    89    96    89    96    80    88 Clover 1                                76      88      88    88      83    93    92  94    94    86    92    92  92    92    92    92    92    92    92 Clover 2                                90      88      65      92      90    92    83  94    86    94    94    94  94    94    94    94    94    94    94 CVOW                                  -        -      -          -        -    -    45  45    45    45    45    45  45    45    45    45    45    45    45 Darbytown 1                              96      91      92    93      83    93    93  93    88    88    88    88  88    88    88    88    88    93    93 Darbytown 2                              80      97      93    95      84    94    94  94    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    93    93 Darbytown 3                              91      98      89    95      84    94    94  94    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    93    93 Darbytown 4                              92      92      92    95      84    94    94  94    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    93    93 Elizabeth River 1                        99      98      93    95      91    94    94  94    89    89    89    89  89    89    89    89    89    90    90 Elizabeth River 2                      97      98      92      95      90    94    94  94    89    89    89    89  89    89    89    89    89    90    90 Elizabeth River 3                        99      71      92    95      94    91    94  91    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    90    90 Existing NC Solar NUGs                  20      20    -        25      25    25    25  25    25    25    25    25  25    25    25    25    25    25    25 Existing VA Solar NUGs                    -        -    -        25      25    25    25  25    25    25    25    25  25    25    25    25    25    25    25 Gaston Hydro                            88      90      91    13      13    13    13  13    13    13    13    13  13    13    13    13    13    13    13 Generic 2x1 CC                                                    -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Generic Aero CT                                                    -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Generic Brownfield CT                    -        -    -          -        -    -    -  87    87    87    87    87  87    87    87    87    87    87    87 Generic Greenfield CT                    -        -    -          -        -    -    -    -    -  87    87    87  87    87    87    87    87    87    87 Generic Solar PV                          -        -    -          -        -  25    25  25    25    25    25    25  25    25    25    25    25    25    25 Gordonsville 1                          81      89      77    97      84    93    93  86    97    91    97    86  97    91    97    86    97    87    93 Gordonsville 2                          83      91      52    97      93    93    86  89    97    91    97    84  91    97    91    97    91    93    93 Gravel Neck 1-2                          96      96  100      91      100      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Gravel Neck 3                            89      96      90    95      94    94    94  91    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    94    94 Gravel Neck 4                            90      97      87    95      91    94    94  94    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    94    94 Gravel Neck 5                            92      97      91    92      94    94    94  94    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    94    94 Gravel Neck 6                            91      97      91    95      94    94    94  91    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    94    94 Note: EAF for intermittent resources shown as a capacity factor.
165
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3C cont. - Equivalent Availability Factor for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program (%)
Company Name:                      Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                Schedule 8 UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Equivalent Availability Factor (%)
(ACTUAL)                                                    (PROJECTED)
Unit Name          2015      2016 2017      2018    2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024 2025 2026  2027  2028  2029  2030  2031  2032  2033 Greensville                                -        -    -        96      82    83    83  83    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    84    84 Hopewell                                64      74      78    77      78    78    78  77    74    74    74    74  74    74    74    74    74    74    74 Ladysmith 1                              93      90      85    91      90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    90    90 Ladysmith 2                              92      90      85    91      90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    90    90 Ladysmith 3                              94      91      84    80      90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    90    90 Ladysmith 4                              94      91      77    71      90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    90    90 Ladysmith 5                              94      90      83    90      80    90    90  90    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    90    90 Lowmoor CT 1-4                          98      98      98      91      91  100      -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Mecklenburg 1                            84      95      93      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Mecklenburg 2                            82      96      93      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Mount Storm 1                            80      82      74    72      68    83    78  72    75    83    81    75  83    81    75    83    81    86    86 Mount Storm 2                            78      80      81    72      81    79    72  81    75    81    81    75  81    81    75    81    86    86    86 Mount Storm 3                            79      65      70    87      81    73    82  73    75    84    84    75  84    84    75    84    87    87    87 Mount Storm CT                            57    100        96    91        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
North Anna 1                            92      90    100      89      92    98    91  91    98    91    91    98  91    91    98    91    91    98    91 North Anna 2                          100        88      90    98      89    91    98  91    91    98    91    91  98    91    91    98    91    91    91 North Anna Hydro                          -        -    -        25      25    25    25  25    25    25    25    25  25    25    25    25    25    25    25 Northern Neck CT 1-4                  100        98      94    91      90    90      -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Pittsylvania                              88      60      75      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Possum Point 3                            89      71      85      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Possum Point 4                            83      69      62      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Possum Point 5                          33      52      62    81      80    80      -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Possum Point 6                          80      80      75    91      77    84    80  80    88    88    88    76  88    88    88    88    88    87    87 Possum Point CT 1-6                    100        99      97    91      90    90    100    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Remington 1                              91      91      91    91      90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    90    90 Remington 2                              86      92      91    91      90    90    87  90    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    90    90 Remington 3                              89      90      70    91      90    90    87  87    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    90    90 Remington 4                              92      92      83    91      90    87    90  90    90    90    90    90  90    90    90    90    90    90    90 Roanoke Rapids Hydro                    88      90      93    30      30    30    30  30    30    30    30    30  30    30    30    30    30    30    30 Rosemary                                68      81      77    94      96    83    96  96    89    96    89    96  89    96    89    96    89    94    94 Scott Solar                            -          2      21    25      25    24    24  24    24    24    24    24  24    23    23    23    23    23    23 SEI Birchwood                            90      90      87    80      80    80    74    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Solar Partnership Program                  -    -      -        14      14    14    14  14    14    14    14    14  14    14    14    14    14    14    14 Southampton                              74      69      68    78      77    79    77  77    74    74    74    74  74    74    74    74    74    74    74 Surry 1                                  75      94      99    91      90    98    91  91    98    91    91    98  91    91    98    91    91    93    93 Surry 2                                  81      99      92    89      98    91    91  98    91    91    98    91  91    98    91    91    98    98    93 US-3 Solar 1                              -        -    -          -        -  28    28  28    28    28    28    28  28    28    28    28    28    28    28 US-3 Solar 2                              -    -      -          -        -    -    27  27    27    27    27    27  27    27    27    27    27    27    27 Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center        66      76      74    76      75    80    77  80    77    77    77    77  77    77    71    77    77    88    88 Warren                                    61      81      88    79      83    83    75  83    85    93    93    77  89    86    93    93    93    85    85 Whitehouse Solar                        -          2      20    25      25    25    25  24    24    24    24    24  24    24    24    23    23    23    23 Woodland Solar                          -          2      18    25      25    25    25  25    25    25    24    24  24    24    24    24    24    24    24 Yorktown 1                              79      87      89      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Yorktown 2                              84      91      97      -        -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Yorktown 3                                35      59      83    82      81    81    81    -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -
Note: EAF for intermittent resources shown as a capacity factor.
166
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3D - Net Capacity Factor for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:              Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                      Schedule 9 UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Net Capacity Factor (%)
(ACTUAL)                                              (PROJECTED)
Unit Name      2015    2016    2017    2018  2019 2020 2021 2022  2023 2024  2025 2026  2027  2028 2029 2030 2031 2032  2033 Altavista                      60.1    63.1    61.7    75.2  75.2 74.9 73.6 74.8  11.5 11.6 12.9  16.0  17.5  16.3 18.2 18.1 20.6 21.8  29.3 Bath County 1-6                13.8    12.3    14.2    24.3  23.7 20.9 19.7 19.8  19.6 19.7 19.3  18.8  18.3  18.4 18.7 18.6 18.2 17.7  18.0 Bear Garden                    67.0    69.7    62.1    78.1  70.6 72.3 71.8 72.5  72.4 75.5 74.7  76.2  74.6  65.4 64.8 49.0 48.1 55.1  57.9 Bellemeade                    53.2    39.9      7.7      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Bremo 3                        6.5    10.3      1.7      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Bremo 4                        12.7    24.6      8.3      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Brunswick                        -      51.0    67.8    74.7  73.3 79.2 77.6 71.5  85.6 79.0 83.6  74.2  84.0  81.6 77.4 79.3 79.7 70.1  73.6 Chesapeake CT 1, 2, 4, 6        0.2      0.0      0.0      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Chesterfield 3                12.6      6.2      4.4      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Chesterfield 4                23.4    53.7    16.6      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Chesterfield 5                69.8    59.4    43.4    29.1  25.7 24.2 21.1 18.6  18.2 17.4 16.8  17.3  18.9  14.6 15.3 12.2 12.1 10.9  11.6 Chesterfield 6                69.8    63.0    31.3    26.8  31.3 32.9 25.9 23.7  22.4 22.3  21.3 23.9  25.8  20.3 20.4 17.3 15.8 14.2  16.2 Chesterfield 7                94.7    70.6    89.7    64.8  86.6 80.6 86.9 78.1  84.1 78.8 82.6  75.6  81.6  64.7 79.1 70.9 75.8 61.6  70.0 Chesterfield 8                96.4    69.7    90.2    81.8  87.9 65.0 84.2 76.8  81.4 76.2 79.4  73.5  79.1  70.9 76.0 68.3 71.9 59.2  66.8 Clover 1                      65.3    69.4    48.0    41.2  39.8 43.7 39.5 37.2  38.8 35.9 18.4  18.7  19.9  15.0 14.1 11.7 11.3 10.1  10.8 Clover 2                      77.5    72.0    37.1    46.4  44.4 47.5 41.6 42.7  40.9 43.5 19.8  21.5  23.1  17.4 18.5 13.4 13.8 12.2  14.3 CVOW                        -        -        -          -      -    -  44.8 44.8  44.8 44.8 44.8  44.8  44.8  44.8 44.8 44.8 44.8 44.8  44.8 Darbytown 1                    4.2      0.9      1.9    3.5    3.5  2.8  1.9  1.6  1.3  2.0  1.5  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.1  1.0  1.1  1.1  1.1 Darbytown 2                    3.1      0.9      1.8    3.5    3.5  2.9  1.9  1.8  1.3  2.0  1.5  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.1  1.0  1.1  1.1  1.1 Darbytown 3                    5.2      1.2      2.7    3.5    3.5  2.9  2.1  1.8  1.3  2.0  1.5  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.1  1.0  1.1  1.1  1.1 Darbytown 4                    5.9      1.4      8.7    3.5    3.5  2.9  1.9  1.8  1.3  2.0  1.5  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.1  1.0  1.1  1.1  1.1 Elizabeth River 1              7.2      3.7      3.4    4.6    4.6  4.2  4.5  4.0  3.7  3.8  3.7  3.2  3.4  3.2  3.2  3.3  3.3  3.1  3.2 Elizabeth River 2              6.1      7.0      3.5    4.6    4.6  4.2  4.5  4.0  3.7  3.8  3.7  3.2  3.4  3.2  3.2  3.3  3.3  3.1  3.2 Elizabeth River 3              0.9      5.0      3.2    4.6    4.6  4.2  4.5  4.0  3.7  3.8  3.6  3.2  3.4  3.2  3.2  3.2  3.2  3.1  3.2 Existing NC Solar NUGs          -        -    -        25.4  25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4  25.4 25.4 25.4  25.4  25.4  25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4  25.4 Existing VA Solar NUGs          -        -    -        25.4  25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4  25.4 25.4 25.4  25.4  25.4  25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4  25.4 Gaston Hydro                  16.4    21.2    14.1    13.4  13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4  13.4 13.4  13.4 13.4  13.4  13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4  13.4 Generic 2x1 CC                                            -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Generic Aero CT                  -        -                -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Generic Brownfield CT            -        -    -          -      -    -    -    7.0  7.1  7.7  8.0  9.3  7.7  5.9  6.0  5.1  4.5  4.8  5.8 Generic Greenfield CT            -        -    -          -      -    -    -    -    -  7.5  8.0  9.3  7.8  6.4  6.7  5.8  5.1  5.3  6.2 Generic Solar PV                -        -    -          -      -  25.4 25.4 25.4  25.4 25.4 25.4  25.4  25.4  25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4  25.4 Gordonsville 1                57.8    47.1    14.2    53.4  45.3 42.0 36.2 36.1  38.7 41.0 40.4  36.0  39.5  31.9 36.5 27.0 29.9 24.8  31.0 Gordonsville 2                61.7    48.9      9.6    55.0  55.1 43.3 36.5 41.6  41.1 43.4  42.0 40.1  37.7  35.6 37.4 32.8 31.8 27.7  34.0 Gravel Neck 1-2                  -      0.1      0.1    0.5    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Gravel Neck 3                  1.1      5.3      4.3    5.9    5.9  5.1  5.2  5.0  4.7  4.9  5.1  4.7  4.7  4.5  4.5  4.2  4.2  4.0  4.3 Gravel Neck 4                  4.5      5.4      0.9    5.9    5.9  5.1  5.2  5.0  4.7  5.0  5.1  4.7  4.7  4.6  4.5  4.2  4.2  4.0  4.3 Gravel Neck 5                  3.6      5.1      3.9    5.9    5.9  5.1  5.2  5.0  4.7  4.9  5.1  4.7  4.7  4.5  4.5  4.2  4.2  4.0  4.3 Gravel Neck 6                  3.0      2.7      0.8    5.9    5.9  5.1  5.2  5.0  4.7  5.0  5.1  4.7  4.7  4.6  4.5  4.2  4.2  4.0  4.3 167
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3D cont. - Net Capacity Factor for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                      Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                      Schedule 9 UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Net Capacity Factor (%)
(ACTUAL)                                              (PROJECTED)
Unit Name            2015 2016        2017    2018  2019 2020 2021 2022  2023 2024  2025 2026  2027  2028 2029 2030 2031 2032  2033 Greensville                            -      -    -          8.0  78.9 79.6 79.7 79.8  86.0 86.2 85.4  85.3  85.6  84.5 85.3 85.1 84.5 78.8  79.9 Hopewell                              58.8    68.3      66.0    68.8  64.9 67.6 65.3 66.9  9.2  8.7  8.7 10.2  12.4  11.4 12.4 13.7 16.1 16.4  22.3 Ladysmith 1                            4.1    7.0      9.4    10.1  10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1  10.1  9.6  9.8  9.9 10.0  8.1  8.6  8.5  8.8  7.6  7.9 Ladysmith 2                            3.3    15.3      11.1    10.1  10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1  10.1  9.6  9.8  9.8 10.1  8.1  8.8  8.5  8.7  7.5  7.9 Ladysmith 3                          10.1    11.4      5.7    10.1  10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1  10.1 10.0  9.9  9.9 10.1  8.3  8.9  8.6  8.9  7.6  8.2 Ladysmith 4                            9.4    9.6      9.4    9.4  10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1  10.1  9.9  9.9  9.7 10.1  8.3  9.2  8.6  9.0  7.6  8.1 Ladysmith 5                            5.3    12.8      6.5    10.1    9.8 10.0 10.1 10.1  10.1 10.0  9.9 10.0  10.1  8.3  9.2  8.6  9.0  7.6  8.1 Lowmoor CT 1-4                          -      -        0.1      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Mecklenburg 1                        28.0    25.6      12.4      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Mecklenburg 2                        27.6    23.8      12.6      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Mount Storm 1                        70.3    68.4      49.4    50.1  47.0 59.0 53.5 52.1  52.0 49.0 47.5  48.6  52.3  46.0 46.3 42.8 38.1 36.9  40.1 Mount Storm 2                        65.9    67.0      58.0    50.8  56.0 57.7 52.5 55.3  52.3 48.2 48.4  48.3  51.7  46.7 46.9 42.5 38.8 36.8  39.8 Mount Storm 3                        70.9    53.3      39.1    55.6  50.2 47.8 47.7 43.9  42.6 43.2 41.6  42.2  46.9  40.3 38.2 33.9 32.7 29.9  33.3 Mount Storm CT                        0.1    0.2      0.1      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
North Anna 1                          93.8    91.6    102.3    87.3  90.6 96.3 89.1 89.0  96.3 88.9 89.0  96.3  88.8  89.0 96.3 88.8 89.0 96.3  88.8 North Anna 2                        102.6    90.4      92.3    96.4  87.3 89.4 96.4 89.0  89.1 96.4 88.9  89.1  96.4  88.9 89.1 96.4 88.9 89.1  88.9 North Anna Hydro                      41.4    41.4      29.2    24.6  24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6  24.6 24.6 24.6  24.6  24.6  24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6  24.6 Northern Neck CT 1-4                    -      0.1      0.2      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Pittsylvania                          36.8    20.1      15.1      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Possum Point 3                        1.3    2.2      1.3      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Possum Point 4                        1.4    3.5      1.5      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Possum Point 5                        3.5    1.3      0.9    6.0    6.0  6.0  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Possum Point 6                        66.4    67.2      59.1    85.5  72.5 78.8 74.2 74.6  80.4 80.0 79.0  67.6  78.5  75.7 76.4 75.0 74.1 70.6  73.4 Possum Point CT 1-6                    -      0.0      0.1      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Remington 1                          18.4    13.0      9.9    17.3  15.1 10.9  9.1  9.2  9.1  9.2  9.4  8.6  8.3  7.2  7.7  7.7  7.5  7.3  7.3 Remington 2                          16.6    14.0      9.8    17.3  15.2 10.9  9.1  9.1  9.1  9.1  9.4  8.7  8.3  7.2  7.6  7.7  7.5  7.2  7.3 Remington 3                          15.7    11.0      10.0    17.5  16.1 11.3  9.1  9.3  9.4  9.3  9.5  8.8  8.4  7.4  7.8  7.7  7.6  7.1  7.3 Remington 4                          16.5    12.1      8.7    16.3  16.0 11.1 10.3 10.7  10.5 10.3 10.5  10.2  9.4  8.2  8.7  8.6  8.5  8.1  8.2 Roanoke Rapids Hydro                  34.9    43.1      25.7    30.4  30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4  30.4 30.4 30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4  30.4 Rosemary                              7.8    5.2      9.8    1.0    1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0  1.0 Scott Solar                        -          2.1      20.6    24.7  24.6 24.4 24.3 24.2  24.1 23.9 23.8  23.7  23.6  23.5 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.0  22.9 SEI Birchwood                        27.2    21.6      22.8    52.2  53.8 50.1 41.3    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Solar Partnership Program              -      -    -        13.7  13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7  13.7 13.7 13.7  13.7  13.7  13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7  13.7 Southampton                          65.0    66.1      62.5    61.0  52.7 55.0 50.3 54.1  6.1  6.2  6.5  6.6  8.2  6.9  8.8  8.3  9.7 10.7  16.0 Surry 1                              77.2    96.6    102.4    89.2  87.9 95.9 88.7 88.4  95.9 88.7 88.4  95.9  88.7  88.4 95.9 88.7 88.4 91.0  91.0 Surry 2                              83.4 101.9        94.2    87.3  95.9 89.0 88.4 95.9  88.7 88.4 95.9  88.7  88.4  95.9 88.7 88.4 95.9 95.9  91.0 US-3 Solar 1                            -      -        -      -      -  28.4 28.4 28.4  28.4 28.4 28.4  28.4  28.4  28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4  28.4 US-3 Solar 2                            -      -        -      -      -    -  27.2 27.2  27.2 27.2 27.2  27.2  27.2  27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2  27.2 Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center    55.5    65.4      62.4    58.7  55.7 63.7 62.1 64.5  62.8 57.7 59.8  64.3  62.6  58.6 58.1 56.6 55.1 52.9  54.3 Warren                                54.7    72.3      75.7    72.3  74.4 75.3 65.7 74.7  75.4 82.5 81.8  69.2  77.0  72.0 77.7 74.4 75.0 66.9  70.6 Whitehouse Solar                    -          2.1      19.9    24.9  24.8 24.6 24.5 24.4  24.3 24.2 24.0  23.9  23.8  23.7 23.6 23.5 23.3 23.2  23.1 Woodland Solar                      -          2.1      17.8    25.3  25.2 25.1 25.0 24.8  24.7 24.6 24.5  24.3  24.2  24.1 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.6  23.5 Yorktown 1                            10.5    3.4      2.4      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Yorktown 2                            8.0    19.7      3.1      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
Yorktown 3                            4.4    2.1      1.1    3.0    3.0  3.0  3.0    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -
168
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3E - Heat Rates for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                  Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                              Schedule 10 UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Average Heat Rate - (mmBtu/MWh)
(ACTUAL)                                                  (PROJECTED)
Unit Name        2015    2016 2017        2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2025  2026  2027  2028  2029  2030  2031  2032  2033 Altavista                        14.26    15.07 15.16      12.31 12.31 12.31 12.31  12.31 12.31 12.31  12.31 12.31 12.31 12.31 12.31 12.31 12.31 12.31 12.31 Bath County 1-6                                      -
Bear Garden                      7.12    6.79    6.54    7.13  7.12  7.12  7.12  7.13  7.13  7.12  7.12  7.13  7.13  7.13  7.13  7.13  7.13  7.13  7.13 Bellemeade                        8.62    8.72    8.77 Bremo 3                          12.06    12.37 12.30 Bremo 4                          10.59    10.45 10.54 Brunswick                          -      8.34    6.96    6.88  6.88  6.88  6.88  6.88  6.88  6.86  6.87  6.84  6.87  6.87  6.86  6.87  6.87  6.87  6.87 Chesapeake CT 1, 2, 4, 6        16.98    16.98 16.90      0.00  0.00 Chesterfield 3                  12.45    13.05 13.68 Chesterfield 4                  10.52    10.46 11.07 Chesterfield 5                  10.16    10.27 10.23      9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86 Chesterfield 6                    9.98    10.07 10.25      9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94  9.94 Chesterfield 7                    7.40    7.45    7.53    7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33  7.33 Chesterfield 8                    7.23    7.30    7.38    7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25  7.25 Clover 1                          9.99  10.06 10.31      10.53 10.53 10.53 10.53  10.53 10.53 10.53  10.53 10.53 10.53 10.53 10.53 10.53 10.53 10.53 10.53 Clover 2                        10.00    10.06 10.21      10.44 10.44 10.44 10.44  10.44 10.44 10.44  10.44 10.44 10.44 10.44 10.44 10.44 10.44 10.44 10.44 CVOW Darbytown 1                      12.54 12.60 12.45        12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 12.04 Darbytown 2                      12.56 12.47 12.35        12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 Darbytown 3                      12.51 12.38 12.36        12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 12.02 Darbytown 4                      12.58 12.48 12.43        12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 12.03 Elizabeth River 1                11.69 11.86 12.06        12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 12.14 Elizabeth River 2                11.72 12.12 12.24        12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 Elizabeth River 3                11.23 12.32 12.11        12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 Existing NC Solar NUGs Existing VA Solar NUGs Gaston Hydro Generic 2x1 CC Generic Aero CT Generic Brownfield CT                                                              10.07 10.07 10.07  10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 Generic Greenfield CT                                                                          10.07  10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 10.07 Generic Solar PV Gordonsville 1                    8.47    8.17    8.60    8.16  8.17  8.16  8.16  8.17  8.16  8.16  8.16  8.17  8.16  8.16  8.16  8.17  8.16  8.16  8.16 Gordonsville 2                    8.45    8.17    8.51    8.15  8.15  8.15  8.15  8.16  8.15  8.15  8.15  8.15  8.16  8.15  8.15  8.15  8.15  8.15  8.15 Gravel Neck 1-2                  20.17    19.08    17.86  17.40  0.00 Gravel Neck 3                    12.79    12.57    12.61  12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35  12.35 12.35 12.35  12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 Gravel Neck 4                    12.82    12.57    13.02  12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34  12.34 12.34 12.34  12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 Gravel Neck 5                    13.22    12.99    13.09  12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35  12.35 12.35 12.35  12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 12.35 Gravel Neck 6                    12.55    12.72    12.79  12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34  12.34 12.34 12.34  12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.34 169
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3E cont. - Heat Rates for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                      Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                              Schedule 10 UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Average Heat Rate - (mmBtu/MWh)
(ACTUAL)                                                  (PROJECTED)
Unit Name          2015 2016        2017    2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2025  2026  2027  2028  2029  2030  2031  2032  2033 Greensville                            -                -      6.44  6.67 6.67  6.67    6.67 6.67  6.67  6.67  6.67  6.67  6.67  6.67  6.67  6.67  6.67  6.67 Hopewell                            15.75 15.32      15.98  12.09 12.09 12.09 12.09  12.09 12.09 12.09  12.09 12.09 12.09 12.09 12.09 12.09 12.09 12.09 12.09 Ladysmith 1                        10.09 10.06        9.96  10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31  10.31 10.31 10.31  10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 Ladysmith 2                          9.86    9.68    9.70  10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31  10.31 10.31 10.31  10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 Ladysmith 3                          9.94    9.89    9.99  10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31  10.31 10.31 10.31  10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 Ladysmith 4                          9.86    9.92    9.84  10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31  10.31 10.31 10.31  10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 Ladysmith 5                          9.90    9.83    9.98  10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31  10.31 10.31 10.31  10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 10.31 Lowmoor CT 1-4                      17.83 16.59      16.86    0.00  0.00  0.00 Mecklenburg 1                      11.89 11.95      12.49 Mecklenburg 2                      12.20 12.36      12.50 Mount Storm 1                        9.99 10.13      10.16    9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86  9.86 Mount Storm 2                        9.93 10.07      10.05    9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91  9.91 Mount Storm 3                      10.42 10.39      10.56  10.19 10.19 10.19 10.19  10.19 10.19 10.19  10.19 10.19 10.19 10.19 10.19 10.19 10.19 10.19 10.19 Mount Storm CT                      21.83 16.75      16.03    0.00  0.00 North Anna 1                          -      -              10.40 10.39 10.40 10.40  10.39 10.40 10.41  10.39 10.40 10.41 10.39 10.40 10.41 10.39 10.40 10.41 North Anna 2                          -      -              10.42 10.44 10.41 10.42  10.43 10.41 10.42  10.43 10.41 10.42 10.43 10.41 10.42 10.44 10.41 10.44 North Anna Hydro Northern Neck CT 1-4                18.19    16.32    16.87    0.00  0.00  0.00 Pittsylvania                        15.98    17.36    14.76 Possum Point 3                      12.21    12.95    11.62 Possum Point 4                      12.96    11.49    11.66 Possum Point 5                      10.26    11.19    11.87    9.93  9.93  9.93 Possum Point 6                        7.19    7.13    7.18    7.43  7.42 7.42  7.39    7.38 7.41  7.40  7.40  7.38  7.40  7.39  7.39  7.39  7.39  7.38  7.39 Possum Point CT 1-6                17.04    17.96    17.32    0.00  0.00 0.00  0.00 Remington 1                          9.97    10.02    10.01  10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48  10.48 10.48 10.48  10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 Remington 2                        10.17    10.05    10.10  10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48  10.48 10.48 10.48  10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 Remington 3                        10.30    10.26    10.03  10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48  10.48 10.48 10.48  10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 Remington 4                        10.12    10.09    9.99  10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48  10.48 10.48 10.48  10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 10.48 Roanoke Rapids Hydro Rosemary                            9.55    9.50    9.48    8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76  8.76 Scott Solar SEI Birchwood                      10.00    10.00 10.00      9.61  9.61  9.61  9.61 Solar Partnership Program Southampton                        15.16    15.31 15.70      11.70 11.70 11.70 11.70  11.70 11.70 11.70  11.70 11.70 11.70 11.70 11.70 11.70 11.70 11.70 11.70 Surry 1                                -      -              10.29 10.33 10.31 10.29  10.33 10.31 10.29  10.33 10.31 10.29 10.33 10.31 10.29 10.33 10.31 10.31 Surry 2                                -      -              10.33 10.31 10.29 10.33  10.31 10.29 10.33  10.31 10.29 10.33 10.31 10.29 10.33 10.31 10.31 10.31 US-3 Solar 1 US-3 Solar 2 Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center    9.96    9.87 10.02      9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39  9.39 Warren                                6.77    6.91    6.88    6.93  6.93  6.94  6.93  6.92  6.93  6.94  6.93  6.94  6.93  6.93  6.94  6.94  6.94  6.95  6.94 Whitehouse Solar Woodland Solar Yorktown 1                          10.70    11.54 12.09 Yorktown 2                          10.66    11.63 12.25 Yorktown 3                          10.79    10.55 10.86      10.15 10.15 10.15 10.15 170
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3F - Existing Capacity for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                      Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                                      Schedule 7 CAPACITY DATA (ACTUAL)                                                                      (PROJECTED) 2015      2016      2017    2018      2019    2020    2021    2022    2023    2024    2025    2026    2027    2028    2029    2030    2031    2032    2033 (1)
I. Installed Capacity (MW)
: a. Nuclear                          3,357    3,357    3,357  3,349    3,349  3,349  3,349    3,349    3,349    3,349    3,349  3,349  3,349  3,349  3,349    3,349  3,349  3,349    3,349
: b. Coal                              4,400    4,081    4,077  3,638    3,644  3,638  3,632    3,626    3,623    3,623    3,623  3,623  3,623  3,623  3,623    3,623  3,623  3,623    3,623
: c. Heavy Fuel Oil                    1,575    1,575    1,572  1,576    1,576  1,576    790        0        0        0        0      0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0
: d. Light Fuel Oil                      596        596      596    246      167    119      47      47      47      47      47      47      47      47      47      47      47      47      47
: e. Natural Gas-Boiler                  543        543      543      0        0      0      0        0        0        0        0      0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0
: f. Natural Gas-Combined Cycle        3,543    4,919    4,948  4,693    6,278  6,278  6,278    6,278    6,278    6,278    6,278  6,278  6,278  6,278  6,278    6,278  6,278  6,278    6,278
: g. Natural Gas-Turbine              2,052    2,053    2,053  2,426    2,426  2,426  2,426    2,884    3,342    3,800    4,258  4,716  4,716  4,716  5,174    5,632  6,090  6,090    6,090
: h. Hydro-Conventional                  317        317      317    316      316    316    316      316      316      316      316    316    316    316    316      316    316    316      316
: i. Pumped Storage                    1,809    1,809    1,809  1,808    1,808  1,808  1,808    1,808    1,808    1,808    1,808  1,808  1,808  1,808  1,808    1,808  1,808  1,808    1,808
: j. Renewable                          236        236      236    213      207    318    439      554      665      756      864    973  1,081  1,190  1,280    1,353  1,371  1,479    1,588
: k. Total Company Installed          18,428    19,486    19,509  18,265    19,771  19,828  19,085  18,861  19,428  19,976  20,543  21,109  21,218  21,326  21,875  22,405  22,881  22,990  23,098
: l. Other (NUG)                    1,775    1,252      238    346      366    372    372      153      152      152      151    150    149    149    148      147    146    145      144
: n. Total                            20,203    20,738    19,746  18,611    20,137  20,201  19,456  19,014  19,580  20,128  20,694  21,259  21,367  21,475  22,023  22,552  23,028  23,134  23,242 (2)
II. Installed Capacity Mix (%)
: a. Nuclear                          16.6%    16.2%    17.0%  18.0%    16.6%  16.6%  17.2%    17.6%    17.1%    16.6%    16.2%  15.8%  15.7%  15.6%  15.2%    14.8%  14.5%  14.5%    14.4%
: b. Coal                            21.8%    19.7%    20.6%  19.5%    18.1%  18.0%  18.7%    19.1%    18.5%    18.0%    17.5%  17.0%  17.0%  16.9%  16.4%    16.1%  15.7%  15.7%    15.6%
: c. Heavy Fuel Oil                    7.8%      7.6%    8.0%    8.5%      7.8%    7.8%    4.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
: d. Light Fuel Oil                    3.0%      2.9%    3.0%    1.3%      0.8%    0.6%    0.2%    0.00        0        0        0      0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0
: e. Natural Gas-Boiler                2.7%      2.6%    2.7%    0.0%      0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
: f. Natural Gas-Combined Cycle      17.5%    23.7%    25.1%  25.2%    31.2%  31.1%  32.3%    33.0%    32.1%    31.2%    30.3%  29.5%  29.4%  29.2%  28.5%    27.8%  27.3%  27.1%    27.0%
: g. Natural Gas-Turbine              10.2%      9.9%    10.4%  13.0%    12.0%  12.0%  12.5%    15.2%    17.1%    18.9%    20.6%  22.2%  22.1%  22.0%  23.5%    25.0%  26.4%  26.3%    26.2%
: h. Hydro-Conventional                1.6%      1.5%    1.6%    1.7%      1.6%    1.6%    1.6%    1.7%    1.6%    1.6%    1.5%    1.5%    1.5%    1.5%    1.4%    1.4%    1.4%    1.4%    1.4%
: i. Pumped Storage                    9.0%      8.7%    9.2%    9.7%      9.0%    9.0%    9.3%    9.5%    9.2%    9.0%    8.7%    8.5%    8.5%    8.4%    8.2%    8.0%    7.9%    7.8%    7.8%
: j. Renewable                        1.2%      1.1%    1.2%    1.1%      1.0%    1.6%    2.3%    2.9%    3.4%    3.8%    4.2%    4.6%    5.1%    5.5%    5.8%    6.0%    6.0%    6.4%    6.8%
: k. Total Company Installed          91.2%    94.0%    98.8%  98.1%    98.2%  98.2%  98.1%    99.2%    99.2%    99.2%    99.3%  99.3%  99.3%  99.3%  99.3%    99.3%  99.4%  99.4%    99.4%
: l. Other (NUG)                    8.8%      6.0%    1.2%    1.9%      1.8%    1.8%    1.9%    0.8%    0.8%    0.8%    0.7%    0.7%    0.7%    0.7%    0.7%    0.7%    0.6%    0.6%    0.6%
: n. Total                          100.0%    100.0%    100.0%  100.0%    100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%  100.0%
(1) Net dependable installed capability during peak season.
(2) Each item in Section I as a percent of line n (Total).
171
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3G - Energy Generation by Type for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program (GWh)
Company Name:                      Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                                              Schedule 2 GENERATION (ACTUAL)                                                                          (PROJECTED) 2015      2016      2017      2018      2019    2020    2021    2022    2023        2024      2025    2026    2027    2028    2029    2030    2031    2032    2033 I. System Output (GWh)
: a. Nuclear                          26,173    27,978    28,683    27,457    27,575  28,331  27,640  27,617  28,207      27,699    27,618  28,207  27,618  27,696  28,207  27,618  27,614  28,461  27,422
: b. Coal                            22,618    21,974    15,376    15,313    14,578  15,738  14,346  14,131  13,734      13,160    12,211  12,718  13,422  11,725  11,633  10,529  9,886  9,326  10,030
: c. Heavy Fuel Oil                      542        236      141      631      631    633    208        0        0          0          0      0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0
: d. Light Fuel Oil                      319    222.8    131.1        2        0      0      0        0        0          0          0      0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0
: e. Natural Gas-Boiler                  253    487.5    163.4      554        0      0      0        0        0          0          0      0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0
: f. Natural Gas-Combined Cycle      18,482    25,563    26,832    33,339    43,340  44,093  42,676  42,822  46,212      46,399    46,682  43,004  46,045  43,757  44,395  42,736  42,864  39,420  41,168
: g. Natural Gas-Turbine              1,606    1,692    1,246    2,386    2,294  1,940  1,807    2,089  2,356      2,749      3,121  3,654  3,327  2,774  3,169    3,140  3,185  3,128    3,487
: h. Hydro-Conventional                1,039    1,333      876      513      513    514    513      513    513        514        513    513    513    514    513      513    513    514      513
: i. Hydro-Pumped Storage              2,217    1,971    2,367    3,850    3,748  3,323  3,120    3,143  3,101      3,137      3,050  2,977  2,906  2,918  2,970    2,941  2,887  2,813    2,853
: j. Renewable(1)                      1,191    1,246    1,265    1,684    1,252  2,419  3,548    4,657  4,958      5,833      6,900  8,012  9,092  10,149  11,026  11,730  11,926  13,028  14,147
: k. Total Generation                74,440    82,703    77,081    85,727    93,932  96,991  93,858  94,972  99,081      99,491    100,094  99,084  102,923  99,533 101,912  99,206  98,876  96,690  99,621
: l. Purchased Power                  14,657    7,486    13,419    14,351    9,917  8,648  10,356    9,341  8,080      9,041      8,905 11,260    9,746  12,530  11,502  14,611  15,599  17,885  16,622
: m. Total Payback Energy(2)              -                            9        7      8      8        8        7          8          6      9      9      11      11      11      11      11      11
: n. Less Pumping Energy              -2,800    -2,480    -3,014    -4,813    -4,685  -4,135  -3,900  -3,929  -3,885      -3,932      -3,794  -3,722  -3,632  -3,656  -3,723  -3,676  -3,607  -3,499  -3,567 (3)
: o. Less Other Sales                -1,716    -4,296    -1,536    -7,303  -10,030 -12,220  -9,628  -8,151  -9,509      -9,018      -8,229  -8,034  -8,927  -6,560  -6,729  -5,942  -5,359  -4,002  -4,777
: p. Total System Firm Energy Req. 84,581    83,414    85,951    87,963    89,134  89,283  90,687  92,233  93,767      95,583    96,976  98,587  100,109 101,847 102,962  104,200 105,508 107,075 107,898 II. Energy Supplied by Competitive Service Providers                  N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A    N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A        N/A        N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A      N/A    N/A    N/A      N/A (1) Include current estimates for renewable energy generation by VCHEC.
(2) Payback Energy is accounted for in Total Generation.
(3) Include all sales or delivery transactions with other electric utilities, i.e., firm or economy sales, etc.
172
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3H - Energy Generation by Type for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program (%)
Company Name:                    Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                        Schedule 3 GENERATION (ACTUAL)                                                            (PROJECTED) 2015      2016      2017    2018  2019  2020  2021    2022  2023  2024    2025  2026  2027  2028  2029    2030    2031  2032    2033 III. System Output Mix (%)
: a. Nuclear                      30.9%    33.5%    33.4%    31.2%  30.9%  31.7%  30.5%  29.9%  30.1%  29.0%    28.5%  28.6%  27.6%  27.2%  27.4%  26.5%  26.2%  26.6%    25.4%
: b. Coal                          26.7%    26.3%    17.9%    17.4%  16.4%  17.6%  15.8%  15.3%  14.6%  13.8%    12.6%  12.9%  13.4%  11.5%  11.3%  10.1%    9.4%  8.7%    9.3%
: c. Heavy Fuel Oil                  0.6%      0.3%    0.2%    0.7%  0.7%  0.7%    0.2%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%    0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  0.0%    0.0%
: d. Light Fuel Oil                  0.4%      0.3%    0.2%    0.0%  0.0%  0.0%    0.0%    -      -      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -        -
: e. Natural Gas-Boiler              0.3%      0.6%    0.2%    0.6%  0.0%  0.0%    0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%    0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  0.0%    0.0%
: f. Natural Gas-Combined Cycle    21.9%    30.6%    31.2%    37.9%  48.6%  49.4%  47.1%  46.4%  49.3%  48.5%    48.1%  43.6%  46.0%  43.0%  43.1%  41.0%  40.6%  36.8%    38.2%
: g. Natural Gas-Turbine            1.9%      2.0%    1.4%    2.7%  2.6%  2.2%    2.0%  2.3%  2.5%  2.9%    3.2%  3.7%  3.3%  2.7%  3.1%    3.0%    3.0%  2.9%    3.2%
: h. Hydro-Conventional              1.2%      1.6%    1.0%    0.6%  0.6%  0.6%    0.6%  0.6%  0.5%  0.5%    0.5%  0.5%  0.5%  0.5%  0.5%    0.5%    0.5%  0.5%    0.5%
: i. Hydro-Pumped Storage            2.6%      2.4%    2.8%    4.4%  4.2%  3.7%    3.4%  3.4%  3.3%  3.3%    3.1%  3.0%  2.9%  2.9%  2.9%    2.8%    2.7%  2.6%    2.6%
: j. Renewable Resources            1.4%      1.5%    1.5%    1.9%  1.4%  2.7%    3.9%  5.0%  5.3%  6.1%    7.1%  8.1%  9.1%  10.0%  10.7%  11.3%  11.3%  12.2%    13.1%
: k. Total Generation              88.0%    99.1%    89.7%    97.5% 105.4% 108.6% 103.5%  103.0% 105.7% 104.1%  103.2% 100.5% 102.8%  97.7%  99.0%  95.2%  93.7%  90.3%    92.3%
: l. Purchased Power              17.3%      9.0%    15.6%    16.3%  11.1%  9.7%  11.4%  10.1%  8.6%  9.5%    9.2%  11.4%  9.7%  12.3%  11.2%  14.0%  14.8%  16.7%    15.4%
: m. Direct Load Control (DLC)      0.0%      0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  0.0%  0.0%    0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%    0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%  0.0%    0.0%    0.0%  0.0%    0.0%
: n. Less Pumping Energy            -3.3%    -3.0%    -3.5%    -5.5%  -5.3%  -4.6%  -4.3%  -4.3%  -4.1%  -4.1%    -3.9%  -3.8%  -3.6%  -3.6%  -3.6%  -3.5%  -3.4%  -3.3%    -3.3%
(1)
: o. Less Other Sales              -2.0%    -5.1%    -1.8%    -8.3% -11.3% -13.7% -10.6%  -8.8% -10.1%  -9.4%    -8.5%  -8.1%  -8.9%  -6.4%  -6.5%  -5.7%  -5.1%  -3.7%    -4.4%
: p. Total System Output            100.0%    100.0%    100.0%  100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%  100.0% 100.0% 100.0%  100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%  100.0%  100.0% 100.0%  100.0%
IV. System Load Factor              58.5%    57.9%    58.6%    57.7%  57.6%  57.3%  57.5%  57.7%  57.8%  57.3%    57.3%  57.3%  57.5%  57.8%  57.7%  57.4%  57.5%  57.8%    57.9%
(1) Economy energy.
173
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3I - Planned Changes to Existing Generation Units Company Name:                    Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                            Schedule 13a UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA(1)
Unit Size (MW) Uprate and Derate (ACTUAL)                                                (PROJECTED)
Unit Name          2015    2016    2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2025  2026  2027  2028  2029  2030  2031  2032  2033 Altavista                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Bath County 1-6                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Bear Garden                            -        -      26      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Bellemeade                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Bremo 3                                -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Bremo 4                                -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Brunswick                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Chesapeake CT 1, 2, 4, 6              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Chesterfield 3                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Chesterfield 4                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Chesterfield 5                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Chesterfield 6                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Chesterfield 7                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Chesterfield 8                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Clover 1                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Clover 2                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Darbytown 1                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Darbytown 2                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Darbytown 3                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Darbytown 4                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Elizabeth River 1                      -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Elizabeth River 2                      -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Elizabeth River 3                      -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Existing NC Solar NUGs                -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Existing VA Solar NUGs                -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Gaston Hydro                          -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Gordonsville 1                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Gordonsville 2                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Gravel Neck 1-2                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Gravel Neck 3                          -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Gravel Neck 4                          -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Gravel Neck 5                          -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Gravel Neck 6                          -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
(1) Peak net dependable capability as of this filing. Incremental uprates shown as positive (+) and decremental derates shown as negative (-)
174
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3I cont. - Planned Changes to Existing Generation Units Company Name:                      Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                            Schedule 13a UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA(1)
Unit Size (MW) Uprate and Derate (ACTUAL)                                                  (PROJECTED)
Unit Name          2015    2016    2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2025  2026  2027  2028  2029  2030  2031  2032  2033 Greensville                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Hopewell                                -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Ladysmith 1                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Ladysmith 2                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Ladysmith 3                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Ladysmith 4                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Ladysmith 5                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Lowmoor CT 1-4                          -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Mecklenburg 1                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Mecklenburg 2                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Mount Storm 1                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Mount Storm 2                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Mount Storm 3                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Mount Storm CT                          -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
North Anna 1                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
North Anna 2                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
North Anna Hydro                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Northern Neck CT 1-4                    -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Pittsylvania                            -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Possum Point 3                          -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Possum Point 4                          -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Possum Point 5                          -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Possum Point 6                          14        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Possum Point CT 1-6                      -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Remington 1                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Remington 2                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Remington 3                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Remington 4                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Roanoke Rapids Hydro                    -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Roanoke Valley II                        -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Roanoke Valley Project                  -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Rosemary                                -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Scott Solar                              -        -      -      -      -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
SEI Birchwood                            -    -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Solar Partnership Program            -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Southampton                          -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Surry 1                              -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Surry 2                              -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center    -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Warren                                -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Whitehouse Solar                      -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Woodland Solar                        -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Yorktown 1                            -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Yorktown 2                            -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
Yorktown 3                            -        -        -      -      -    -    -    -    -    -      -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -      -
(1) Peak net dependable capability as of this filing. Incremental uprates shown as positive (+) and decremental derates shown as negative (-)
175
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3J - Potential Unit Retirements Company Name:                                        Virginia Electric and Power Company                                      Schedule 19 UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA (1)
Planned Unit Retirements Projected Unit          Prim ary                MW        MW Unit Nam e                      Location                                          Retirem ent Type          Fuel Type              Sum m er    Winter Year 4
Yorktown 1                                      Yorktown, VA            Steam-Cycle      Coal              2017          159        162 4
Yorktown 2                                      Yorktown, VA            Steam-Cycle      Coal              2017          164        165 Chesapeake CT 1                                Chesapeake, VA          CombustionTurbine Light Fuel Oil    2019            15        20 Chesapeake GT1                                                                                                            15 Chesapeake CT 2                                Chesapeake, VA          CombustionTurbine Light Fuel Oil    2019            36        49 Chesapeake GT2                                                                                                            12 Chesapeake GT4                                                                                                            12 Chesapeake GT6                                                                                                            12 Gravel Neck 1                                  Surry, VA                CombustionTurbine Light Fuel Oil    2019            28        38 Gravel Neck GT1                                                                                                          12 Gravel Neck GT2                                                                                                          16 Lowmoor CT                                      Covington, VA            CombustionTurbine Light Fuel Oil    2020            48        65 Low moor GT1                                                                                                              12 Low moor GT2                                                                                                              12 Low moor GT3                                                                                                              12 Low moor GT4                                                                                                              12 Mount Storm CT                                  Mt. Storm, WV            CombustionTurbine Light Fuel Oil    2018            11        15 Mt. Storm GT1                                                                                                            11 Northern Neck CT                                Warsaw, VA              CombustionTurbine Light Fuel Oil    2020            47        63 Northern Neck GT1                                                                                                        12 Northern Neck GT2                                                                                                        11 Northern Neck GT3                                                                                                        12 Northern Neck GT4                                                                                                        12 Possum Point CT                                Dumfries, VA            Steam-Cycle      Light Fuel Oil    2021            72      106 Possum Point CT1                                                                                                          12 Possum Point CT2                                                                                                          12 Possum Point CT3                                                                                                          12 Possum Point CT4                                                                                                          12 Possum Point CT5                                                                                                          12 Possum Point CT6                                                                                                          12 Bellemeade CC2                                  Richmond, VA            Combined Cycle    Natural Gas      2021          267        267 2
Bremo 3                                        New Canton, VA          Steam-Cycle      Natural Gas      2021            71        71 2
Bremo 4                                        New Canton, VA          Steam-Cycle      Natural Gas      2021          156        156 Clover 16                                      Clover, VA              Steam-Cycle      Coal              2025          220        222 Clover 2                                        Clover, VA              Steam-Cycle      Coal              2025          219        219 3
Chesterfield 3                                  Chester, VA              Steam-Cycle      Coal              2021            98      102 3
Chesterfield 4                                  Chester, VA              Steam-Cycle      Coal              2021          163        168 Chesterfield 5                                  Chester, VA              Steam-Cycle      Coal              2023          336        342 Chesterfield 6                                  Chester, VA              Steam-Cycle      Coal              2023          670        690 2
Mecklenburg 1                                  Clarksville, VA          Steam-Cycle      Coal              2021            69        69 2
Mecklenburg 2                                  Clarksville, VA          Steam-Cycle      Coal              2021            69        69 5
Pittsylvania                                    Hurt, VA                Steam-Cycle      Biomass          2021            83        83 Possum Point 33                                Dumfries, VA            Steam-Cycle      Natural Gas      2021            96      100 Possum Point 43                                Dumfries, VA            Steam-Cycle      Natural Gas      2021          220        225 Possum Point 5                                  Dumfries, VA            Steam-Cycle      Heavy Fuel Oil    2021          786        805 Yorktown 3                                      Yorktown, VA            Steam-Cycle      Heavy Fuel Oil    2022          790        792 (1) Reflects retirement assumptions used for planning purposes, not firm Company commitments.
(2) These units entered into cold reserve in April 2018.
(3) These units are planned to enter into cold reserve in December 2018.
(4) Yorktown Units 1 and 2 ceased operations on April 15, 2017 to comply with the MATS rule. Since that time, PJM requested the units to be available on an emergency basis.
(5) Pittsylvania is planned to enter cold reserve in August 2018.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3K - Generation under Construction Company Name:                    Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                            Schedule 15a UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Planned Supply-Side Resources (MW)
Primary Fuel      (1)
MW          MW Unit Name                          Location                    Unit Type                    C.O.D.              (2)
Type                Summer      Nameplate Under Construction Greensville County Power Station                    VA                Intermediate/Baseload Natural Gas  2019        1,585        1,585 (1) Commercial Operation Date.
(2) Firm capacity.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3L - Wholesale Power Sales Contracts Company Name:                                Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                        Schedule 20 WHOLESALE POWER SALES CONTRACTS (Actual)                                (Projected)
Entity          Contract Length          Contract Type          2015  2016  2017 2018 2019  2020 2021  2022  2023    2024 2025    2026 2027  2028  2029  2030  2031  2032    2033 Craig-Botetourt      12-Month Termination (1)
Electric Coop        Notice                  Full Requirements              12    6    10  9    9    9    9    10    10      10  10    11  11      11    11    11    11    11    11 Town of Windsor,    12-Month Termination (1)
North Carolina      Notice                  Full Requirements              11    11    11  10  11    11    11  11    11      11  11    11  12      12    12    12    12    12    12 Virginia Municipal  5/31/2031 (1)
Electric Association with annual renewal      Full Requirements            309    350  299  285  287  291  293  295    297      300  302    304  307    311    313  317    320  323    326 (1) Full requirements contracts do not have a specific contracted capacity amount. MWs are included in the Companys load forecast.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3M - Description of Active DSM Programs Air Conditioner Cycling Program Branded Name:            Smart Cooling Rewards State:                  Virginia & North Carolina Target Class:            Residential VA Program Type:        Peak-Shaving NC Program Type:        Peak-Shaving VA Duration:            2010 -2043 NC Duration:            2011- 2043 Program
 
== Description:==
 
This Program provides participants with an external radio frequency cycling switch that operates on central air conditioners and heat pump systems. Participants allow the Company to cycle their central air conditioning and heat pump systems during peak load periods. The cycling switch is installed by a contractor and located on or near the outdoor air conditioning unit(s). The Company remotely signals the unit when peak load periods are expected, and the air conditioning or heat pump system is cycled off and on for short intervals.
Program Marketing:
The Company uses business reply cards, online enrollment, and call center services.
Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program Branded Name:            Distributed Generation State:                  Virginia Target Class:            Non-Residential VA Program Type:        Demand-Side Management VA Duration:            2012 - 2043 Program
 
== Description:==
 
As part of this Program, a third-party contractor will dispatch, monitor, maintain and operate customer-owned generation when called upon by the Company at anytime for up to a total of 120 hours per year. The Company will supervise and implement the Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program through the third-party implementation contractor. Participating customers will receive an incentive in exchange for their agreement to reduce electrical load on the Companys system when called upon to do so by the Company. The incentive is based upon the amount of load curtailment delivered during control events. When not being dispatched by the Company, the generators may be used at the participants discretion or to supply power during an outage, consistent with applicable environmental restrictions.
Program Marketing:
Marketing is handled by the Companys implementation vendor.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3M cont. - Description of Active DSM Programs Non-Residential Heating and Cooling Efficiency Program Target Class:              Non-Residential VA Program Type:          Energy Efficiency NC Program Type:          Energy Efficiency VA Duration:              2014 - 2043 NC Duration:              2015 - 2043 Program
 
== Description:==
 
This Program provides qualifying non-residential customers with incentives to implement new and upgrade existing heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment to more efficient HVAC technologies that can produce verifiable savings.
Program Marketing:
The Company uses a number of marketing activities to promote its approved DSM programs, including but not limited to: direct mail, bill inserts, web content, social media, and outreach events.
Because these programs are implemented using a contractor network, customers will enroll in the program by contacting a participating contractor. The Company utilizes the contractor network to market the programs to customers as well.
Non-Residential Lighting Systems & Controls Program Target Class:              Non-Residential VA Program Type :          Energy Efficiency NC Program Type:          Energy Efficiency VA Duration:              2014 - 2043 NC Duration:              2015 - 2043 Program
 
== Description:==
 
This Program provides qualifying non-residential customers with an incentive to implement more efficient lighting technologies that can produce verifiable savings. The Program promotes the installation of lighting technologies including but not limited to efficient fluorescent bulbs, LED- based bulbs, and lighting control systems.
Program Marketing:
The Company uses a number of marketing activities to promote its approved DSM programs, including but not limited to: direct mail, bill inserts, web content, social media, and outreach events.
Because these programs are implemented using a contractor network, customers will enroll in the program by contacting a participating contractor. The Company will utilize the contractor network to market the programs to customers as well.
180
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3M cont. - Description of Active DSM Programs Non-Residential Window Film Program Target Class:            Non-Residential VA Program Type:        Energy Efficiency NC Program Type:        Energy Efficiency VA Duration:            2014 - 2043 NC Duration:            2015 - 2043 Program
 
== Description:==
 
This Program provides qualifying non-residential customers with an incentive to install solar reduction window film to lower their cooling bills and improve occupant comfort. Customers can receive rebates for installing qualified solar reduction window film in non-residential facilities based on the Solar Heat Gain Coefficient of window film installed.
Program Marketing:
The Company uses a number of marketing activities to promote its approved DSM programs, including but not limited to: direct mail, bill inserts, web content, social media, and outreach events.
Because these programs are implemented using a contractor network, customers will enroll in the program by contacting a participating contractor. The Company utilizes the contractor network to market the programs to customers as well.
Income and Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program Target Class:            Residential VA Program Type:        Energy Efficiency NC Program Type: Energy Efficiency VA Duration:            2015 - 2043 NC Duration:            2016 - 2043 Program
 
== Description:==
 
This Program provides income and age-qualifying residential customers with energy assessments and direct install measures at no cost to the customer.
Program Marketing:
The Company markets this Program primarily through weatherization assistance providers and social services agencies.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3M cont. - Description of Active DSM Programs Residential Retail LED Lighting Program (NC only)
Target Class:            Residential NC Program Type:          Energy Efficiency NC Duration:              2017 - 2033 Program
 
== Description:==
 
This Program provides residential customers in the Companys North Carolina service territory with an instant discount for qualifying LED light bulb purchases from a participating retailer. Qualifying bulbs will be those types that are commonly used, including general service (A-line) bulbs, specialty bulbs (candelabra base, globe, and reflector) and small fixtures meeting Energy Star and UL standards.
Program Marketing:
The instant rebate will be marketed using a combination of in-store point-of purchase, direct mail, social media, and online communications.
Small Business Improvement Program Target Class:            Non-Residential VA Program Type:          Energy Efficiency NC Program Type:          Energy Efficiency VA Duration:              2016 - 2043 NC Duration:              2017 - 2043 Program
 
== Description:==
 
This Program provides eligible small businesses an energy use assessment and tune-up or re commissioning of electric heating and cooling systems, along with financial incentives for the installation of specific energy efficiency measures. Participating small businesses are required to meet certain connected load requirements.
Program Marketing:
The Company uses a number of marketing activities to promote its approved DSM programs, including but not limited to: direct mail, bill inserts, web content, social media, and outreach events.
Because these programs are implemented using a contractor network, customers will enroll in the program by contacting a participating contractor. The Company utilizes the contractor network to market the programs to customers as well.
182
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3M cont. - Description of Active DSM Programs Non-Residential Prescriptive Program Target Class:            Non-Residential VA Program Type:        Energy Efficiency NC Program Type:        Energy Efficiency VA Duration:            2017 - 2043 NC Duration:            2018 - 2043 Program
 
== Description:==
 
This Program will provide an incentive to eligible non-residential customers not otherwise eligible or who choose not to participate in the Company's Small Business Improvement Program. The Program would offer incentives for the installation of energy efficiency measures such as Refrigerator Evaporator Fans (Reach-in and Walk-in Coolers and Freezers), Commercial ENERGY STAR Appliances, Commercial Refrigeration, Commercial ENERGY STAR Ice Maker, Advanced Power Strip, Cooler/Freezer Strip Curtain, HVAC Tune-Up, Vending Machine Controls, Kitchen Fan Variable Speed Drives and Commercial Duct Testing and Sealing.
Program Marketing:
The Company uses a number of marketing activities to promote its approved DSM programs, including but not limited to: direct mail, bill inserts, web content, social media, and outreach events.
Because these programs are implemented using a contractor network, customers will enroll in the program by contacting a participating contractor. The Company will utilize the contractor network to market the programs to customers as well.
183
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3N - Approved Programs Non-Coincidental Peak Savings for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program (kW) (System-Level)
Programs                    2018    2019    2020    2021      2022    2023    2024    2025    2026    2027    2028    2029    2030      2031    2032    2033 Air Conditioner Cycling Program                          91,285  91,285  91,285  91,285    91,285  91,285  91,285  93,909  97,141  98,467  95,812  93,918  91,285    91,285  91,285  91,285 Residential Low Income Program                            4,079    4,079    4,079    4,079      4,079    4,079    4,041    3,511    2,235    1,437      796      192        0        0        0        0 Residential Lighting Program                            27,995  27,349  19,445    9,772          0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0 Commercial Lighting Program                              10,118  10,118    9,164    6,825      2,412      87      67        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0 Commercial HVAC Upgrade                                    668      668      668      668        668      668      668      656      495      193        0        0        0        0        0        0 Non-Residential Energy Audit Program                      5,656    5,654    5,029    3,155        702      335        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0 Non-Residential Duct Testing and Sealing Program        28,452  28,452  28,452  28,452    28,452  28,452  28,452  28,452  28,452  28,452  28,452  28,452  28,452    28,452  28,452  28,452 Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program            8,416    8,416    9,468    9,468    10,520  10,541  10,563  10,584  10,605  10,626  10,647  10,668  10,689    10,710  10,731    10,752 Residential Bundle Program                              24,655  24,478  22,329  20,064    18,274  18,212  17,221  13,139    9,915    7,110    6,712    5,589    4,312    2,653      339      289 Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program              11,442  11,442  11,442  11,442    11,441  11,379  10,387    6,305    3,081      279        0        0        0        0        0        0 Residential Duct Sealing Program                        353      353      353      353        353      353      353      353      353      353      353      353      353      351      339      289 Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program                  6,380    6,202    4,054    1,789          0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0 Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program                  6,481    6,481    6,481    6,481      6,481    6,481    6,481    6,481    6,481    6,478    6,359    5,236    3,959    2,302        0        0 Non-Residential Window Film Program                      34,093  49,232  51,712  54,241    56,821  58,162  58,602  59,034  59,450  59,853  60,245  60,630  61,009    61,384  61,755  62,126 Non-Residential Lighting Systems & Controls Program      42,316  43,473  44,654  45,858    47,085  48,022  55,450  55,411  53,050  48,316  48,483  48,647  48,808    48,967  49,125  49,282 Non-Residential Heating and Cooling Efficiency Program  34,729  47,946  50,101  52,295    54,529  55,698  56,093  56,481  56,856  57,218  57,571  57,917  58,257    58,595  59,466  59,262 Income and Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program        2,131    2,486    2,919    3,499      4,078    4,567    4,596    4,625    4,653    4,680    4,705    4,730    4,754    4,777    4,781    4,824 Residential Appliance Recycling Program                  1,720    1,720    1,720    1,720      1,720    1,492      993        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0 Small Business Improvement Program                        4,494    8,621  13,754  16,210    16,621  16,883  17,025  17,164  17,299  17,429  17,556  17,680  17,921    20,176  21,313    21,433 Residential Retail LED Lighting Program (NC only)        1,813    1,977    1,977    1,977      1,977    1,977    1,977    1,977    1,977    1,977    1,977    1,977    1,977    1,977    1,977    1,977 Non-Residential Prescriptive Program                      6,761  14,231  22,725  31,219    34,572  35,081  35,370  35,685  35,989  36,283  36,569  36,850  37,127    37,401  37,672  37,944 Total                                                  329,382 370,187  379,482  380,788    373,796  375,541  382,404  380,628  378,118  372,040  369,524  367,249  364,590  366,378  366,896  367,626 Note: Residential Bundle Program includes Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program, Residential Duct & Sealing Program, Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program, and Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program.
184
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3O - Approved Programs Coincidental Peak Savings for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program (kW) (System-Level)
Programs                  2018    2019    2020    2021      2022    2023    2024    2025    2026    2027      2028      2029      2030      2031      2032      2033 Air Conditioner Cycling Program                          91,285  91,285  91,285  91,285    91,285  91,285  91,285  91,285  91,285    91,285    91,285    91,285    91,285    91,285    91,285 91,285 Residential Low Income Program                            2,346    2,346    2,346    2,346    2,346    2,346    2,192    1,640    1,052      642      274        50        0        0        0      0 Residential Lighting Program                            19,877  16,666  10,404    3,154        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Commercial Lighting Program                              10,118  10,118    9,160    5,331    1,336      87      36        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Commercial HVAC Upgrade                                    668      668      668      668      668      668      668      582      340        88        0        0        0        0        0      0 Non-Residential Energy Audit Program                      5,287    5,285    4,748    2,360      659      225        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Non-Residential Duct Testing and Sealing Program        11,013  11,013  11,013  11,013    11,013  11,013  11,013  11,013  11,013    11,013    11,013    11,013    11,013    11,013  11,013  11,013 Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program            8,149    8,416    9,030    9,468    10,082  10,533  10,554  10,575  10,596    10,617    10,638    10,659    10,680    10,701    10,722 10,743 Residential Bundle Program                              16,382  15,446  13,761  12,283    11,579  11,467    9,990    7,938    6,103    5,208    4,632    3,737    2,634    1,223      242    142 Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program              6,440    6,440    6,440    6,440    6,438    6,325    4,848    2,796      961        78        0        0        0        0        0      0 Residential Duct Sealing Program                        266      266      266      266      266      266      266      266      266      266      266      266      265      261      242    142 Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program                  4,800    3,864    2,179      702        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program                  4,876    4,876    4,876    4,876    4,876    4,876    4,876    4,876    4,876    4,864    4,366    3,471    2,369      963        0      0 Non-Residential Window Film Program                      23,381  35,622  37,413  39,239    41,101  42,070  42,382  42,680  42,968    43,232    43,498    43,776    44,049    44,320  44,588 44,856 Non-Residential Lighting Systems & Controls Program      25,640  30,603  31,450  32,313    33,192  33,639  33,770  33,899  34,023    34,144    34,261    34,376    34,489    34,601  34,712 34,823 Non-Residential Heating and Cooling Efficiency Program  27,747  40,863  42,700  44,570    46,474  47,470  47,807  48,138  48,457    48,766    49,066    49,361    49,651    49,939  50,223 50,508 Income and Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program        1,182    1,538    1,883    2,229    2,574    2,728    2,746    2,763    2,779    2,795    2,810    2,824    2,838    2,852    2,866  2,880 Residential Appliance Recycling Program                  1,633    1,633    1,633    1,633    1,633    1,416      738        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Small Business Improvement Program                        3,772    8,368  13,747  16,364    16,783  17,043  17,188  17,329  17,466    17,598    17,727    17,854    18,117    20,208    21,664 21,786 Residential Retail LED Lighting Program (NC only)          601      922      922      922      922      922      922      922      922      922      922      922      922      922      922    922 Non-Residential Prescriptive Program                      4,658  12,524  20,390  28,256    31,956  32,433  32,731  33,023  33,306    33,579    33,844    34,105    34,362    34,616  34,867 35,119 Total                                                  253,739  293,318  302,552  303,434  303,605  305,345  304,022  301,788  300,312  299,888  299,971  299,962  300,042  301,681  303,104 304,078 Note: Residential Bundle Program includes Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program, Residential Duct & Sealing Program, Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program, and Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program.
185
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3P - Approved Programs Energy Savings for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program (MWh) (System-Level)
Programs                  2018    2019    2020    2021      2022    2023    2024    2025    2026    2027      2028      2029      2030      2031      2032      2033 Air Conditioner Cycling Program                              0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Residential Low Income Program                          10,442  10,442  10,442  10,442    10,442  10,442    9,833    7,516    4,814    2,963    1,323      257        0        0        0      0 Residential Lighting Program                            208,284  176,936  111,858  36,201        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Commercial Lighting Program                              82,457  82,457  75,328  45,025    11,769      705      321        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Commercial HVAC Upgrade                                  5,851    5,851    5,867    5,851    5,851    5,851    5,867    5,150    3,083      841        0        0        0        0        0      0 Non-Residential Energy Audit Program                    36,155  36,143  32,687  16,938    4,614    1,636        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Non-Residential Duct Testing and Sealing Program        67,720  67,720  67,720  67,720    67,720  67,720  67,720  67,720  67,720    67,720    67,720    67,720    67,720    67,720    67,720  67,720 Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program                1    1,010        0        1        2        6        3        1      184        1        1        1        1        2        1      0 Residential Bundle Program                              70,043  67,240  61,277  55,856    52,912  52,377  45,275  34,034  24,199    18,793    16,800    13,640    9,802    4,880      871    557 Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program              34,584  34,584  34,584  34,584    34,574  34,038  26,937  15,696    5,861      492        0        0        0        0        0      0 Residential Duct Sealing Program                        947      947      947      947      947      947      947      947      947      947      947      947      946      932      871    557 Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program                17,121  14,318    8,354    2,934        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program                17,391  17,391  17,391  17,391    17,391  17,391  17,391  17,391  17,391    17,353    15,853    12,693    8,855    3,948        0      0 Non-Residential Window Film Program                      25,660  39,033  40,999  43,005    45,051  46,110  46,460  46,805  47,138    47,463    47,778    48,083    48,384    48,681    48,975  49,270 Non-Residential Lighting Systems & Controls Program    159,339  193,288  198,635  204,087  209,646  212,664  213,495  214,311  215,099  215,860  216,601  217,328  218,044  218,753  219,453 220,155 Non-Residential Heating and Cooling Efficiency Program  70,367 108,956  113,859  118,852  123,935  126,804  127,705  128,590  129,445  130,270  131,074  131,863    132,639  133,408  134,168  134,928 Income and Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program        6,155    7,677    9,430  11,182    12,935  13,834  13,923  14,010  14,092    14,171    14,247    14,321    14,393    14,464    14,534  14,604 Residential Appliance Recycling Program                  11,492  11,492  11,492  11,492    11,492  10,066    5,433        0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0      0 Small Business Improvement Program                      17,389  33,401  52,153  61,749    63,212  64,147  64,653  65,149  65,628    66,091    66,541    66,984    67,717    72,365    75,775  76,202 Residential Retail LED Lighting Program (NC only)        4,087    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557    6,557  6,557 Non-Residential Prescriptive Program                    29,124  81,731  134,339  186,946  213,532  216,827  218,822  220,780  222,671  224,498  226,276  228,021  229,739  231,439  233,121 234,803 Total                                                  804,567  929,936  932,643  881,906  839,671  835,746  826,066  810,623  800,632  795,228  794,919  794,774  794,995  798,268  801,175 804,797 Note: Residential Bundle Program includes Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program, Residential Duct & Sealing Program, Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program, and Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program.
186
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3Q - Approved Programs Penetrations for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program (System-Level)
Programs                    2018      2019      2020      2021      2022      2023      2024      2025      2026      2027      2028      2029      2030      2031      2032      2033 Air Conditioner Cycling Program                          93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180    93,180 Residential Low Income Program                            12,743    12,743    12,743    12,743    12,743    12,743    11,312    7,192    4,656    2,653      653        0        0          0        0        0 Residential Lighting Program                          5,890,547 4,259,629 2,243,150        0        0        0          0        0        0        0        0        0        0          0        0        0 Commercial Lighting Program                                2,456    2,456    2,057      749        21        21          0        0        0        0        0        0        0          0        0        0 Commercial HVAC Upgrade                                      127      127      127      127      127      127        127        99        40        0        0        0        0          0        0        0 Non-Residential Energy Audit Program                      1,740    1,739    1,437      305      154        17          0        0        0        0        0        0        0          0        0        0 Non-Residential Duct Testing and Sealing Program          4,694    4,694    4,694    4,694    4,694    4,694      4,694    4,694    4,694    4,694    4,694    4,694    4,694      4,694    4,694    4,694 Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program                8        8        9        9        10        10        10        10        10        10        10        10        10        10        10        10 Residential Bundle Program                              151,592  126,324    98,903    78,621    75,993    74,424    54,722    39,866    24,610    22,975    19,680    15,987    11,172      5,004    3,336    1,153 Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program              52,963    52,963    52,963    52,963    52,932    51,363    31,661    16,805    1,549        0        0        0        0          0        0        0 Residential Duct Sealing Program                        3,853    3,853    3,853    3,853    3,853    3,853      3,853    3,853    3,853    3,853    3,853    3,853    3,845      3,737    3,336    1,153 Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program                  75,568    50,300    22,879    2,597        0        0          0        0        0        0        0        0        0          0        0        0 Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program                  19,208    19,208    19,208    19,208    19,208    19,208    19,208    19,208    19,208    19,122    15,827    12,134    7,327      1,267        0        0 Non-Residential Window Film Program                    1,989,415 2,091,424 2,195,473 2,301,603 2,409,856 2,428,224  2,446,496 2,464,234 2,481,300 2,497,824 2,513,995 2,529,888 2,545,573  2,561,137 2,576,481 2,592,032 Non-Residential Lighting Systems & Controls Program        5,400    5,550    5,703    5,859    6,018    6,042      6,065    6,088    6,110    6,131    6,152    6,172    6,193      6,213    6,232    6,252 Non-Residential Heating and Cooling Efficiency Program    1,183    1,237    1,292    1,348    1,405    1,415      1,425    1,435    1,444    1,453    1,462    1,471    1,479      1,488    1,496    1,505 Income and Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program        17,399    21,899    26,399    30,899    35,399    35,628    35,856    36,074    36,280    36,478    36,670    36,857    37,041    37,223    37,401    37,583 Residential Appliance Recycling Program                  14,072    14,072    14,072    14,072    14,072    10,866      3,131        0        0        0        0        0        0          0        0        0 Small Business Improvement Program                        1,797    2,787    3,934    4,017    4,102    4,131      4,160    4,188    4,215    4,242    4,267    4,292    4,317      4,342    4,366    4,391 Residential Retail LED Lighting Program (NC only)        263,124  263,124  263,124  263,124  263,124  263,124    263,124  263,124  263,124  263,124  263,124  263,124  263,124    263,124  263,124  263,124 Non-Residential Prescriptive Program                        460      916    1,372    1,828    1,870    1,887      1,905    1,921    1,937    1,953    1,968    1,983    1,998      2,013    2,027    2,042 Total                                                  8,449,937 6,901,909 4,967,669 2,813,178 2,922,768 2,936,534  2,926,207 2,922,105 2,921,601 2,934,717 2,945,855 2,957,659 2,968,781  2,978,427 2,992,348 3,005,966 Note: Residential Bundle Program includes Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program, Residential Duct & Sealing Program, Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program, and Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program.
187
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 3R - List of Transmission Lines under Construction Line      Line Line Terminals                          Voltage Capacity    Target Date    Location (kV)    (MVA)
Line #47 Kings Dominion to Fredericksburg Rebuild                    115      353        May-18          VA Line #2183 Brambleton to Poland Road - New 230 kV Line and New 230      1,047      May-18          VA 230kV Substation Line #2174 Vint Hill to Wheeler - New 230 kV Line                    230      1,047        Jun-18          VA Line #553 Cunningham to Elmont Rebuild                              500      4,330        Jun-18          VA Line #1009 Ridge Road to Chase City Rebuild                          115      346        Jun-18          VA Line #1020 Pantego to Trowbridge - New 115 kV Line                  115      346        Jun-18          NC Line #1015 Scotland Neck to South Justice Branch - New 115 kV Line  115      346        Sep-18          NC Line #2086 Remington Combustion Turbine to Warrenton Rebuild        230      1,047        Oct-18          VA Line #2161 Wheeler to Gainesville Uprate                            230      1,047      Dec-18          VA Line #54 Carolina to Woodland Reconductor                            115      174        Dec-18          NC Line #171 Chase City to Boydton Plank Road                          115      393        Jun-19          VA Line #90 Carolina to Kerr Dam Rebuild                                115      346        Dec-19        VA/NC Line #4 Bremo to Cartersville Uprate                                115      151        May-18          VA Line #48 Sewells Point to Thole Street and Line #107 Oakwood to            317 (#48) 115                  Dec-18          VA Sewells Point Partial Rebuild                                              353 (#107)
Line #585 Carsons to Rogers Road Rebuild                            500      4,330      Dec-18          VA Line #34 Skiffes Creek to Yorktown and Line #61 Whealton to 115    353 (#34)    May-19          VA Yorktown Partial Rebuild Line #582 Surry to Skiffes Creek - New 500 kV Line                  500      4,330      May-19          VA Line #2138 Skiffes Creek to Whealton - New 230 kV Line              230      1,047      May-19          VA Line #159 Acca to Hermitage Reconductor                              115      353        May-19          VA Line #534 Cunningham to Dooms Rebuild                                500      4,330        Jun-19          VA Line #171 Chase City to Boydton Plank Road Rebuild                  115      393        Jun-19          VA Line #82 Everetts to Leggetts Crossroads Delivery Point Rebuild      115      353        Dec-19          NC Line #130 Clubhouse to Carolina Rebuild                              115      394        Dec-19        VA/NC 188
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 4A -
ICF Commodity Price Forecasts for Virginia Electric and Power Company Fall 2017 Forecast 189
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan NOTICE PROVISIONS FOR AUTHORIZED THIRD PARTY USERS.
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190 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Price Forecast (Nominal $)
Fuel Price                                  Power and REC Prices                                                      Emission Prices DOM Zone Henry Hub                    CAPP CSX:                                                                PJM Tier        RTO        CSAPR          CSAPR        CSAPR Delivered                                                PJM-DOM PJM-DOM Natural                      12,500      No. 2 Oil 1% No.6 Oil                                      1 REC        Capacity                                                      CO2 Year                        Natural                                                  On-Peak Off-Peak                                                        Ozone Gas                        1%S FOB ($/MMBtu) ($/MMBtu)                                              Prices        Prices                                    Annual            ($/ton)
Gas                                                    ($/MWh) ($/MWh)
($/MMBtu)                    ($/MMBtu)                                                                ($/MWh)      ($/kW-yr) SO2 ($/ton)          NOx NOx ($/ton)
($/MMBtu)                                                                                                                          ($/ton) 2018          2.85            2.86          2.52        14.36            9.12        42.25        30.55          5.25        58.12        2.56          150.00        2.56              0.00 2019          2.87            2.87          2.42        13.73            8.61        38.33        29.11          5.25        46.35        2.65          192.19        2.67              0.00 2020          3.31            3.24          2.34        13.36            8.46        37.16        29.76          5.03        31.50        2.90          604.96        3.08              0.00 2021          3.64            3.49          2.33        14.14            8.91        35.97        29.90          4.87        30.63        3.08          867.79        3.36              0.00 2022          3.78            3.54          2.39        15.52            9.88        36.53        30.28          5.19        35.57        3.14          925.09        3.43              0.00 2023          3.91            3.66          2.45        16.53          10.58        37.69        31.29          5.53        40.42        3.20          985.90        3.49              0.00 2024          4.05            3.66          2.51        17.18          11.02        37.70        31.39          5.89        45.43        3.26        1,050.72        3.56              0.00 2025          4.20            3.78          2.57        17.98          11.57        38.96        32.33          6.28        50.62        3.32        1,119.63        3.62              0.00 2026          4.33            4.00          2.63        18.68          12.05        40.78        34.02          6.69        55.98        3.38          913.36        3.69              0.35 2027          4.47            4.19          2.69        19.34          12.50        42.24        35.45          7.13        61.54        3.45          745.32        3.76              0.56 2028          4.61            4.21          2.76        19.98          12.93        42.32        35.53          7.60        67.30        3.51          608.48        3.83              1.83 2029          4.75            4.45          2.83        20.73          13.44        44.52        37.35          8.10        74.11        3.58          496.95        3.91              2.16 2030          4.90            4.51          2.89        21.35          13.86        44.62        37.67          8.63        81.74        3.65          3.98          3.98              3.70 2031          5.03            4.62          2.96        22.21          14.45        45.88        38.90          9.20        86.66        3.72          4.06          4.06              5.04 2032          5.16            4.66          3.02        23.09          15.06        46.45        39.61          9.80        89.58        3.79          4.13          4.13              6.53 2033          5.30            5.01          3.09        24.02          15.70        50.25        42.91          10.44        92.57        3.86          4.21          4.21              8.20 Note: The 2018 - 2020 prices are a blend of futures/forwards and forecast prices for all commodities except capacity prices. 2021 and beyond are forecast prices. Capacity prices reflect PJM RPM auction clearing prices through delivery year 2020/2021, forecast thereafter. CO2 prices reflect the price in Virginia. Refer to Sections 4.4.1 and 4.4.2 for additional details.
191 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; Natural Gas DOM Zone Natural Gas Price (Nominal $/MMBtu)
Federal CO2                Virginia RGGI                No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast Commodity Forecast Commodity Forecast 2018                        2.86                        2.86                        2.86 2019                        2.87                        2.87                        2.87 2020                        3.24                        3.33                        3.33 2021                        3.49                        3.61                        3.61 2022                        3.54                        3.65                        3.65 2023                        3.66                        3.72                        3.76 2024                        3.66                        3.70                        3.76 2025                        3.78                        3.81                        3.87 2026                        4.00                        4.01                        4.06 2027                        4.19                        4.17                        4.21 2028                        4.21                        3.99                        4.19 2029                        4.45                        4.23                        4.39 2030                        4.51                        4.17                        4.40 2031                        4.62                        4.24                        4.48 2032                        4.66                        4.16                        4.47 2033                        5.01                        4.58                        4.79 Note: The 2018 - 2020 prices are a blend of futures/forwards and forecast prices. 2021 and beyond are forecast prices.
192 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; Natural Gas Henry Hub Natural Gas Price (Nominal $/MMBtu)
Federal CO2              Virginia RGGI Commodity                    No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast                      Forecast                    Commodity Forecast 2018                  2.85                            2.85                                2.85 2019                  2.87                            2.88                                2.88 2020                  3.31                            3.40                                3.39 2021                  3.64                            3.76                                3.76 2022                  3.78                            3.89                                3.89 2023                  3.91                            4.02                                4.02 2024                  4.05                            4.15                                4.15 2025                  4.20                            4.29                                4.29 2026                  4.33                            4.38                                4.38 2027                  4.47                            4.48                                4.48 2028                  4.61                            4.59                                4.59 2029                  4.75                            4.69                                4.69 2030                  4.90                            4.80                                4.80 2031                  5.03                            4.89                                4.89 2032                  5.16                            4.99                                4.99 2033                  5.30                            5.08                                5.09 Note: The 2018 - 2020 prices are a blend of futures/forwards and forecast prices. 2021 and beyond are forecast prices.
193 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; Coal: FOB CAPP 12,500 1% S Coal (Nominal $/MMBtu)
Federal CO2                      Virginia RGGI                      No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast              Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast 2018                  2.52                              2.52                              2.52 2019                  2.42                              2.42                              2.42 2020                  2.34                              2.35                              2.35 2021                  2.33                              2.34                              2.34 2022                  2.39                              2.40                              2.40 2023                  2.45                              2.46                              2.46 2024                  2.51                              2.52                              2.52 2025                  2.57                              2.58                              2.58 2026                  2.63                              2.64                              2.64 2027                  2.69                              2.70                              2.70 2028                  2.76                              2.76                              2.76 2029                  2.83                              2.83                              2.83 2030                  2.89                              2.89                              2.89 2031                  2.96                              2.96                              2.96 2032                  3.02                              3.03                              3.03 2033                  3.09                              3.09                              3.09 Note: The 2018 - 2020 prices are a blend of futures/forwards and forecast prices. 2021 and beyond are forecast prices.
194 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; Oil No. 2 Oil (Nominal $/MMBtu)
Federal CO2                    Virginia RGGI                      No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast 2018                  14.36                            14.36                              14.36 2019                  13.73                            13.73                              13.73 2020                  13.36                            13.36                              13.36 2021                  14.14                            14.14                              14.14 2022                  15.52                            15.52                              15.52 2023                  16.53                            16.53                              16.53 2024                  17.18                            17.18                              17.18 2025                  17.98                            17.98                              17.98 2026                  18.68                            18.68                              18.68 2027                  19.34                            19.34                              19.34 2028                  19.98                            19.98                              19.98 2029                  20.73                            20.73                              20.73 2030                  21.35                            21.35                              21.35 2031                  22.21                            22.21                              22.21 2032                  23.09                            23.09                              23.09 2033                  24.02                            24.02                              24.02 Note: The 2018 - 2020 prices are a blend of futures/forwards and forecast prices. 2021 and beyond are forecast prices.
195 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; Oil 1% No. 6 Oil (Nominal $/MMBtu)
Federal CO2                    Virginia RGGI                        No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast 2018                  9.12                            9.12                                9.12 2019                  8.61                            8.61                                8.61 2020                  8.46                            8.46                                8.46 2021                  8.91                            8.90                                8.90 2022                  9.88                            9.88                                9.88 2023                  10.58                            10.58                                10.58 2024                  11.02                            11.02                                11.02 2025                  11.57                            11.57                                11.57 2026                  12.05                            12.05                                12.05 2027                  12.50                            12.50                                12.50 2028                  12.93                            12.93                                12.93 2029                  13.44                            13.44                                13.44 2030                  13.86                            13.86                                13.86 2031                  14.45                            14.45                                14.45 2032                  15.06                            15.06                                15.06 2033                  15.70                            15.70                                15.70 Note: The 2018 - 2020 prices are a blend of futures/forwards and forecast prices. 2021 and beyond are forecast prices.
196 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; On-Peak Power Price Dom Zone Power On Peak (Nominal $/MWh)
Federal CO2                    Virginia RGGI                      No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast 2018                  42.25                            42.25                              42.25 2019                  38.33                            38.41                              38.38 2020                  37.16                            38.33                              38.05 2021                  35.97                            37.52                              37.07 2022                  36.53                            38.06                              37.54 2023                  37.69                            38.73                              38.56 2024                  37.70                            38.65                              38.45 2025                  38.96                            39.90                              39.56 2026                  40.78                            41.76                              40.92 2027                  42.24                            43.20                              41.90 2028                  42.32                            41.42                              41.38 2029                  44.52                            44.08                              43.09 2030                  44.62                            43.34                              42.67 2031                  45.88                            43.86                              43.16 2032                  46.45                            42.63                              42.91 2033                  50.25                            46.88                              45.87 Note: The 2018 - 2020 prices are a blend of futures/forwards and forecast prices. 2021 and beyond are forecast prices.
197 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; Off-Peak Power Price Dom Zone Power Off Peak (Nominal $/MWh)
Federal CO2                      Virginia RGGI                      No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast 2018                  30.55                            30.55                              30.55 2019                  29.11                            29.16                              29.14 2020                  29.76                            30.62                              30.43 2021                  29.90                            31.11                              30.78 2022                  30.28                            31.50                              31.13 2023                  31.29                            32.19                              32.09 2024                  31.39                            32.23                              32.13 2025                  32.33                            33.23                              33.01 2026                  34.02                            34.89                              34.29 2027                  35.45                            36.24                              35.28 2028                  35.53                            34.74                              34.82 2029                  37.35                            36.83                              36.18 2030                  37.67                            36.38                              36.01 2031                  38.90                            36.88                              36.49 2032                  39.61                            36.04                              36.40 2033                  42.91                            39.55                              38.87 Note: The 2018 - 2020 prices are a blend of futures/forwards and forecast prices. 2021 and beyond are forecast prices.
198 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; PJM Tier 1 Renewable Energy Certificates PJM Tier 1 REC Prices (Nominal $/MWh)
Federal CO2                      Virginia RGGI                        No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast                Commodity Forecast 2018                  5.25                              5.25                                5.25 2019                  5.25                              5.32                                5.33 2020                  5.03                              5.97                                6.03 2021                  4.87                              6.37                                6.46 2022                  5.19                              6.79                                6.88 2023                  5.53                              7.23                                7.34 2024                  5.89                              7.70                                7.82 2025                  6.28                              8.21                                8.33 2026                  6.69                              8.75                                8.87 2027                  7.13                              9.32                                9.46 2028                  7.60                              9.94                              10.08 2029                  8.10                            10.59                              10.75 2030                  8.63                            11.29                              11.45 2031                  9.20                            12.03                              12.20 2032                  9.80                            12.81                              13.00 2033                  10.44                            13.65                              13.85 Note: The 2018 - 2020 prices are a blend of futures/forwards and forecast prices. 2021 and beyond are forecast prices.
199 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; PJM RTO Capacity RTO Capacity Prices (Nominal $/kW -yr)
Federal CO2                    Virginia RGGI                      No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast            Commodity Forecast                  Commodity Forecast 2018            58.12                            58.12                              58.12 2019            46.35                            46.35                              46.35 2020            31.50                            31.50                              31.50 2021            30.63                            30.78                              30.83 2022            35.57                            35.99                              36.11 2023            40.42                            41.11                              41.31 2024            45.43                            46.41                              46.69 2025            50.62                            51.89                              52.25 2026            55.98                            57.56                              58.01 2027            61.54                            63.44                              63.98 2028            67.30                            69.53                              70.17 2029            74.11                            76.14                              76.84 2030            81.74                            83.18                              83.93 2031            86.66                            87.75                              88.47 2032            89.58                            90.51                              91.13 2033            92.57                            93.34                              93.86 Note: PJM RPM auction clearing prices through delivery year 2020/21, forecast thereafter.
200 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; SO2 Emission Allowances CSAPR SO2 Prices (Nominal $/ton)
Federal CO2        Virginia RGGI                  No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast Commodity Forecast          Commodity Forecast 2018          2.56                2.56                          2.56 2019          2.65                2.65                          2.65 2020          2.90                2.90                          2.90 2021          3.08                3.08                          3.08 2022          3.14                3.14                          3.14 2023          3.20                3.20                          3.20 2024          3.26                3.26                          3.26 2025          3.32                3.32                          3.32 2026          3.38                3.38                          3.38 2027          3.45                3.45                          3.45 2028          3.51                3.51                          3.51 2029          3.58                3.58                          3.58 2030          3.65                3.65                          3.65 2031          3.72                3.72                          3.72 2032          3.79                3.79                          3.79 2033          3.86                3.86                          3.86 201 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; NOx Emission Allowances CSAPR Ozone NOx Prices (Nominal $/ton)
Federal CO2        Virginia RGGI                    No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast Commodity Forecast          Commodity Forecast 2018        150.00              150.00                          150.00 2019        192.19              192.19                          192.19 2020        604.96              604.96                          604.96 2021        867.79              867.79                          867.79 2022        925.09              925.09                          925.09 2023        985.90              985.90                          985.90 2024        1,050.72            1,050.72                        1,050.72 2025        1,119.63            1,119.63                        1,119.63 2026        913.36              913.36                          913.36 2027        745.32              745.32                          745.32 2028        608.48              608.48                          608.48 2029        496.95              496.95                          496.95 2030          3.98                3.98                            3.98 2031          4.06                4.06                            4.06 2032          4.13                4.13                            4.13 2033          4.21                4.21                            4.21 202 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; NOx Emission Allowances CSAPR Annual NOx Prices (Nominal $/ton)
Federal CO2        Virginia RGGI                  No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast  Commodity Forecast          Commodity Forecast 2018          0.00                  0.00                          0.00 2019          0.00                  0.00                          0.00 2020          0.00                  6.14                          0.00 2021          0.00                  6.47                          0.00 2022          0.00                  6.80                          0.00 2023          0.00                  7.14                          0.00 2024          0.00                  7.50                          0.00 2025          0.00                  7.87                          0.00 2026          0.35                  8.28                          0.00 2027          0.56                  8.72                          0.00 2028          1.83                  9.18                          0.00 2029          2.16                  9.66                          0.00 2030          3.70                10.17                          0.00 2031          5.04                10.71                          0.00 2032          6.53                11.29                          0.00 2033          8.20                11.89                          0.00 203 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan ICF Federal CO2 Commodity Forecast, Virginia RGGI Commodity Forecast, and No CO2 Tax Commodity Forecast; CO2 CO2 Prices (Nominal $/ton)
Federal CO2                  Virginia RGGI                          No CO2 Tax Year Commodity Forecast        Commodity Forecast                    Commodity Forecast 2018          0.00                            0.00                                0.00 2019          0.00                            0.00                                0.00 2020          0.00                            6.14                                0.00 2021          0.00                            6.47                                0.00 2022          0.00                            6.80                                0.00 2023          0.00                            7.14                                0.00 2024          0.00                            7.50                                0.00 2025          0.00                            7.87                                0.00 2026          0.35                            8.28                                0.00 2027          0.56                            8.72                                0.00 2028          1.83                            9.18                                0.00 2029          2.16                            9.66                                0.00 2030          3.70                            10.17                                0.00 2031          5.04                            10.71                                0.00 2032          6.53                            11.29                                0.00 2033          8.20                            11.89                                0.00 Note: The CO2 prices are reflective of the price in Virginia.
204 COPYRIGHT &#xa9; 2018 ICF Resources, LLC. All rights reserved.
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 4B - Delivered Fuel Data for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                            Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                                    Schedule 18 FUEL DATA (ACTUAL)                                                                            (PROJECTED) 2015      2016      2017      2018        2019      2020    2021      2022    2023    2024      2025  2026  2027  2028  2029    2030    2031  2032    2033 I. Delivered Fuel Price ($/mmBtu)(1)
: a. Nuclear                              0.67      0.70      0.70      0.64        0.64      0.63    0.61      0.61    0.60    0.61      0.61  0.63  0.64  0.65  0.66    0.66    0.67  0.68    0.69
: b. Coal                                  2.87      2.61      2.70      2.10        2.18      2.24    2.30      2.36    2.42    2.47      2.53  2.59  2.66  2.72  2.79    2.85    2.92  2.99    3.06
: c. Heavy Fuel Oil                        7.78      7.28      6.34      6.60        7.04      8.23    9.06      9.58  10.04    10.43      10.80 11.21 11.69 12.14 12.58  13.09  13.52  14.11    14.73 (2)
: d. Light Fuel Oil                      14.54    10.63    11.73    11.35      11.97    13.22    14.26    15.02  15.69    16.27      16.81 17.42 18.12 18.78 19.43  20.18  20.81  21.68    22.57
: e. Natural Gas                          4.11      2.37      3.50      3.28        3.30      3.41    3.49      3.54    3.66    3.66      3.77  4.00  4.19  4.21  4.45    4.51    4.62  4.66    5.01 (3)
: f. Renewable                            3.16      3.17      3.00      2.44        2.79      2.83    2.87      2.92    2.93    3.00      3.03  3.07  3.17  3.22  3.30    3.39    3.47  3.57    3.67 (4)
II. Primary Fuel Expenses (cents/kWh)
: a. Nuclear                              0.69      0.72      0.72      0.68        0.68      0.66    0.64      0.63    0.63    0.64      0.64  0.66  0.67  0.67  0.68    0.69    0.70  0.71    0.72
: b. Coal                                  3.13      3.09      2.88      2.46        2.35      2.36    2.40      2.47    2.54    2.60      2.68  2.75  2.80  2.86  2.93    3.00    3.08  3.16    3.24
: c. Heavy Fuel Oil                      12.25      8.56      7.60    10.10        9.59      9.36    9.43      N/A    N/A      N/A        N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A      N/A (2)
: d. Light Fuel Oil                      11.62      6.80    16.32      N/A        N/A      N/A      N/A      N/A    N/A      N/A        N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A      N/A
: e. Natural Gas                          3.03      2.18      2.64      2.01        2.00      2.08    2.09      2.08    2.09    2.05      2.10  2.37  2.48  2.53  2.61    2.70    2.77  2.85    2.94 (3)
: f. Renewable                            4.93      4.64      4.25      3.05        3.11      3.16    3.21      3.25    3.28    3.38      3.39  3.45  3.58  3.62  3.68    3.82    3.91  4.02    4.12 (5)
: g. NUG                                  3.21      2.98      5.28      6.99        2.24      2.86    2.92      N/A    N/A      N/A        N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A  N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A      N/A
: i. Economy Energy Purchases (6)          4.56    15.62      3.36      2.50        2.52      2.50    2.46      2.50    2.56    2.56      2.71  2.93  2.89  2.98  3.17    3.21    3.38  3.56    3.84
: j. Capacity Purchases ($/kW-Year)      48.12    49.21    52.64    58.12      46.35    31.50    30.78    35.99  41.11    46.41      51.89 57.56 63.44 69.53 76.14  83.18  87.75  90.51    93.34 (1) Delivered fuel price for Central Appalachian (CAPP) CSX (12,500, 1% FOB), No. 2 Oil, No. 6 Oil, DOM Zone Delivered Natural Gas are used to represent Coal, Heavy Fuel, Light Fuel Oil and Natural Gas respectively.
(2) Light fuel oil is used for reliability only at dual-fuel facilities.
(3) Reflects biomass units only.
(4) Primary Fuel Expenses for Nuclear, Coal, Heavy Fuel Oil, Natural Gas and Renewable are based on North Anna 1, Chesterfield 6, Yorktown 3, Possum Point 6, Pittsylvania, respectively.
(5) Average of NUGs Fuel Expenses.
(6) Average cost of Market Energy Purchases.
205
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 5A - Tabular Results of Busbar Capacity Factor (%)
    $/kW -Year  0%      10%      20%          30%          40%            50%          60%      70%      80%        90%        100%
2X1 CC          $  197 $  231 $      266 $        301 $        336 $          370 $      405 $    440 $    475 $      509 $      544 1X1 CC          $  257 $  293 $      330  $      367    $      403    $      440  $    476 $    513 $    550  $      586  $    623 CT              $    58 $  123 $      188  $      252    $      317    $      382  $    447 $    512 $    576  $      641  $    706 Aero CT        $  198 $  249 $      301  $      352    $      403    $      454  $    506 $    557 $    608  $      659  $    711 Solar & Aero CT $  309 $  349 $      388  $      427    $      467    $      506    $    545 $    584 $    624  $      663  $    702 Nuclear        $ 1,048 $ 1,058 $ 1,068      $    1,078    $    1,088    $    1,098    $  1,108 $  1,118 $  1,128  $  1,139    $  1,149 Biomass        $  968 $ 1,045 $ 1,122      $    1,198    $    1,275    $    1,352    $  1,429 $  1,505 $  1,582  $  1,659    $  1,735 Fuel Cell      $ 1,313 $ 1,341 $ 1,370      $    1,399    $    1,427    $    1,456    $  1,485 $  1,514 $  1,542  $  1,571    $  1,600 SCPC w/ CCS    $  636 $  780 $      925  $    1,069    $    1,213    $    1,357    $  1,502 $  1,646 $  1,790  $  1,935    $  2,079 IGCC w/ CCS    $ 1,282 $ 1,416 $ 1,549      $    1,682    $    1,815    $    1,949    $  2,082 $  2,215 $  2,349  $  2,482    $  2,615 Solar                                        $      103 Onshore Wind                                              $      269 Offshore Wind                                              $      443 CVOW                                                      $ 2,810 (1) CVOW and Offshore Wind both have a capacity factor of 42%.
(2) Onshore Wind has a capacity factor of 37%.
(3) Solar PV has a capacity factor of 26%.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 5B - Busbar Assumptions Nominal $      Heat Rate                    Variable Cost1                  Fixed Cost3                  Book Life          2017 Real $2 MMBtu/MWh                          $/MWh                      $/kW -Year                      Years                $/kW 2X1 CC                                6.59                            40                          197                        36              1,233 1X1 CC                                6.63                            42                          257                        36              1,668 CT                                  10.07                              74                            58                        36                  476 Aero CT                                9.32                            59                          198                        36              1,680 Solar & Aero CT                        9.32                            58                          235    35 (Solar ) / 36 (CT)              3,366 Nuclear                              10.50                              12                        1,048                        60              9,133 Biomass                              13.00                              88                          968                        40              6,698 Fuel Cell                              8.54                            33                        1,313                        15              5,880 SCPC w/ CCS                          11.06                            165                          636                        55              5,366 IGCC w/ CCS                          10.88                            152                        1,282                        40              10,839 Solar                                  -                              (10)                          128                        35              1,436 Onshore Wind                            -                                (9)                        301                        25              2,112 Offshore Wind                          -                                (9)                        476                        30              4,021 CVOW                                    -                                (9)                      2,841                        25              25,838 (1) Variable cost for biomass, solar, solar & aero, onshore wind, offshore wind, and CVOW includes value for RECs.
(2) Values in this column represent overnight installed costs.
(4) Fixed costs include investment tax credits and gas firm transportation expenses.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 5C - Planned Generation under Development Company Name:                            Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                  Schedule 15c UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Planned Supply-Side Resources (MW)
Primary Fuel        (2)          MW          MW Unit Name                  Location              Unit Type                          C.O.D.
Type                        Summer    Nameplate Under Development(1)
US-3 Solar 1                                VA                Intermittent            Solar        2020              33        142 US-3 Solar 2                                VA                Intermittent            Solar        2021              22          98 CVOW                                        VA                Intermittent            Wind        2021              2        12(3)
Surry Unit 1 Nuclear Extension              VA                  Baseload              Nuclear        2032            838        875 Surry Unit 2 Nuclear Extension              VA                  Baseload              Nuclear        2033            838        875 North Anna Unit 1 Nuclear Extension          VA                  Baseload              Nuclear        2038            838        868 North Anna Unit 2 Nuclear Extension          VA                  Baseload              Nuclear        2040            834        863 (1) Includes the additional resources under development in the Alternative Plans.
(2) Estimated Commercial Operation Date.
(3) Accounts for line losses.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 5D - Standard DSM Test Descriptions Participant Test The Participant test is the measure of the quantifiable benefits and costs to program participants due to enrollment in a program. This test indicates whether the program or measure is economically attractive to the customer enrolled in the program. Benefits include the participants retail bill savings over time plus any incentives offered by the utility, while costs include only the participants costs. A result of 1.0 or higher indicates that a program is beneficial for the participant.
Utility Cost Test The Utility Cost test compares the cost to the utility to implement a program to the cost that is expected to be avoided as a result of the program implementation. The Utility Cost test measures the net costs and benefits of a DSM program as a resource option, based on the costs and benefits incurred by the utility including incentive costs and excluding any net costs incurred by the participant. The Utility Cost test ignores participant costs, meaning that a measure could pass the Utility Cost test, but may not be cost-effective from a more comprehensive perspective. A result of 1.0 or higher indicates that a program is beneficial for the utility.
Total Resource Cost Test The TRC test compares the total costs and benefits to the utility and participants, relative to the costs to the utility and participants. It can also be viewed as a combination of the Participant and Utility Cost tests, measuring the impacts to the utility and all program participants as if they were treated as one group. Additionally, this test considers customer incentives as a pass-through benefit to customers and, therefore, does not include customer incentives. If a program passes the TRC test, then it is a viable program absent any equity issues associated with non-participants. A result of 1.0 or higher indicates that a program is beneficial for both participants and the utility.
Ratepayer Impact Measure Test The RIM test considers equity issues related to programs. This test determines the impact the DSM program will have on non-participants and measures what happens to customer bills or rates due to changes in utility revenues and operating costs attributed to the program. A score on the RIM test of greater than 1.0 indicates the program is beneficial for both participants and non-participants, because it should have the effect of lowering bills or rates even for customers not participating in the program. Conversely, a score on the RIM test of less than 1.0 indicates the program is not as beneficial because the costs to implement the program exceed the benefits shared by all customers, including non-participants.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 5E - DSM Programs Energy Savings for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program (MWh)
(System-Level)
Company Name: Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                                                                                                                            Schedule 12 ACTUAL - MWh                                                                      (PROJECTED - MWh)
(2)
Life/              (4)
Program Name                      Date                  Size kW        2015      2016      2017    2018      2019      2020    2021    2022    2023    2024        2025      2026    2027    2028    2029      2030    2031    2032      2033 Duration (3)
Air Conditioner Cycling Program                        2010      2033        91,285        0        0        0      0          0          0        0      0      0      0          0          0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0 Sub-total                                                                      91,285        0        0        0      0          0          0        0      0      0      0          0          0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0 Non-Residential Distributed Generation Program          2010      2033        10,743                                    1      1,010        0        1      2      6      3          1        184      1      1      1        1      2      1        0 Standby Generation (Pricing Tariffs) (5)                1987      2033          1,482        342      274      139    139        139        139      139    139    139    139        139        139    139    139    139      139    139    139      139 Sub-total                                                                      12,226        342      274      139    140      1,149        139      140    141    145    142        140        323    140    140    140      140    140    140      139 Residential Low Income Program                          2010      2029            0        6,536    6,682    6,682  10,442    10,442    10,442  10,442  10,442  10,442  9,833      7,516      4,814  2,963  1,323    257        0      0      0        0 Residential Lighting Program                            2010      2021            0      228,892  228,892  228,892 208,284    176,936    111,858  36,201    0      0      0          0          0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0 Commercial Lighting Program                            2010      2024            0        73,417    73,417    73,417  82,457    82,457    75,328  45,025  11,769    705    321          0          0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0 Commercial HVAC Upgrade                                2010      2027            0        5,936    5,936    5,936  5,851      5,851      5,867    5,851  5,851  5,851  5,867      5,150      3,083    841      0      0        0      0      0        0 Non-Residential Energy Audit Program                    2010      2023            0        33,297    35,623    40,510  36,155    36,143    32,687  16,938  4,614  1,636      0          0          0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0 Non-Residential Duct Testing and Sealing Program        2012      2033        11,013      36,674    56,854    71,873  67,720    67,720    67,720  67,720  67,720  67,720  67,720      67,720    67,720  67,720  67,720  67,720    67,720  67,720  67,720    67,720 Residential Bundle Program                            2010 (6)  2033          142      45,264    59,890    67,819  70,043    67,240    61,277  55,856  52,912  52,377  45,275      34,034    24,199  18,793  16,800  13,640    9,802  4,880    871      557 Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program          2012      2027            0        19,706    28,450    33,381  34,584    34,584    34,584  34,584  34,574  34,038  26,937      15,696    5,861    492      0      0        0      0      0        0 Residential Duct Sealing Program                  2012      2033          142        451      759      895    947        947        947      947    947    947    947        947        947    947    947    947      946    932    871      557 Residential Heat Pump Tune Up Program              2012      2021            0        13,140    17,656    19,775  17,121    14,318    8,354    2,934      0      0      0          0          0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0 Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program              2012      2031            0        11,966    13,024    13,769  17,391    17,391    17,391  17,391  17,391  17,391  17,391      17,391    17,391  17,353  15,853  12,693    8,855  3,948      0        0 Non-Residential Window Film Program                    2014      2033        44,856      2,765    3,618    4,426  25,660    39,033    40,999  43,005  45,051  46,110  46,460      46,805    47,138  47,463  47,778  48,083    48,384  48,681  48,975    49,270 Non-Residential Lighting Systems & Controls Program    2014      2033        34,823      21,142    63,983  115,051 159,339    193,288    198,635  204,087 209,646 212,664 213,495    214,311    215,099 215,860 216,601 217,328  218,044 218,753 219,453  220,155 Non-Residential Heating and Cooling Efficiency Program  2014      2033        50,508      4,965    13,607    22,346  70,367    108,956    113,859  118,852 123,935 126,804 127,705    128,590    129,445 130,270 131,074 131,863  132,639 133,408 134,168  134,928 Income and Age Qualifying Home Improvement Program      2015      2033          2,880        112    1,991    4,915  6,155      7,677      9,430    11,182  12,935  13,834  13,923      14,010    14,092  14,171  14,247  14,321    14,393  14,464  14,534    14,604 Residential Appliance Recycling Program                2015      2024            0          659    5,489    10,471  11,492    11,492    11,492  11,492  11,492  10,066  5,433          0          0      0      0      0        0      0      0        0 Small Business Improvement Program                      2016      2033        21,786        0        68      7,442  17,389    33,401    52,153  61,749  63,212  64,147  64,653      65,149    65,628  66,091  66,541  66,984    67,717  72,365  75,775    76,202 Residential Retail LED Lighting Program (NC only)      2017      2033          922          0        0        512  4,087      6,557      6,557    6,557  6,557  6,557  6,557      6,557      6,557  6,557  6,557  6,557    6,557  6,557  6,557    6,557 Non-Residential Prescriptive Program                    2017      2033        35,119        0        0        0    29,124    81,731    134,339  186,946 213,532 216,827 218,822    220,780    222,671 224,498 226,276 228,021  229,739 231,439 233,121  234,803 Sub-total                                                                    202,049    459,660  556,048  660,292 804,565    928,926    932,643  881,905 839,669 835,740 826,063    810,621    800,448 795,227 794,918 794,773  794,994 798,266 801,174  804,797 Total Demand-Side Management                                                  305,560    460,002  556,322  660,431 804,705    930,075    932,782  882,045 839,810 835,885 826,205    810,762    800,771 795,367 795,058 794,913  795,134 798,407 801,314  804,936 (1) The Program types have been categorized by the Virginia definitions of peak shaving, energy efficiency, and demand response.
(2) Implementation date.
(3) State expected life of facility or duration of purchase contract. The Company used Program Life (Years).
(4) The MWs reflected as of 2033.
(5) Reductions available during on-peak hours.
(6) Residential Bundle is comprised of the Residential Home Energy Check-Up Program, Residential Duct Testing & Sealing Program, Residential Heat Pump Tune-Up Program, and Residential Heat Pump Upgrade Program.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan
          ***Confidential Information Redacted***
Appendix 5F - Cost Estimates for Nuclear License Extensions Capital Cost North Anna Units 1 & 2 Surry Units 1 & 2 211
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 6A - Renewable Resources for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                                                  Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                                                                        Schedule 11 RENEWABLE RESOURCE GENERATION (GWh)
(ACTUAL)                                                          (PROJECTED)
Build/Purchase/      Life/        Size (1)                                                (2)
Resource Type                      Unit Name              C.O.D.                    (3)          (4)        (5)
Convert      Duration      MW          2015      2016    2017    2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024    2025  2026  2027  2028  2029  2030  2031  2032    2033 Hydro Gaston Hydro                              Feb-63            Build          60          220          316        408    271      258    258    258    258    258    258    258    258    258    258    258    258    258    258    258      258 North Anna Hydro                        Dec-87            Build          60            1              4        4      3        2      2      2      2      2      2      2      2      2      2      2      2      2      2      2        2 Roanoke Rapids Hydro                    Sep-55            Build          60            95          288        355    211      253    253    254    253    253    253    254    253    253    253    254    253    253    253    254      253 Sub-total                                                                                                    318          617        775    484      513    513    514    513    513    513    514    513    513    513    514    513    513    513    514      513 Solar Solar Partnership Program              2013-2017          Build          20            7            2.3        7      8        9      9      9      9      9      9      9      9      9      9      9      9      9      9      9        9 Existing NC Solar NUGs                2014-2022        Purchase        20          660          161        441    634    1,201  1,380  1,450  1,438  1,431  1,424  1,421  1,410  1,403  1,396  1,393  1,382  1,375  1,368  1,355    1,344 Existing VA Solar NUGs                2016-2017        Purchase        20          100            -        - -            45    62    62    62    61    61    61      60    60    60    59    59    59    59    58        58 US-3 Solar 1                              2020            Build          35          142                                        -      -    355    352    351    349    348    345    344    342    341    339    337    335    334      332 US-3 Solar 2                              2021            Build          35            98                                        -      -      -    233    232    231    230    228    227    226    226    224    223    222    221      219 Whitehouse Solar                      Dec-2016            Build          35          20              -        1      35      44    43    43    43    43    43    42      42    42    42    42    41    41    41    41        40 Scott Solar                            Dec-2016            Build          35          17              -        1      31      37    37    37    37    37    37    36      36    36    36    36    35    35    35    35        35 Woodland Solar                        Dec-2016            Build          35          19              -        1      30      43    42    42    42    42    41    41      41    41    41    41    40    40    40    40        39 Generic Solar PV                      2019-2032          Build          35          5,760            -        -      -        -      -    715  1,604  2,673  3,742  4,647  5,702  6,771  7,841  8,936  9,801 10,514 10,692 11,795    12,830 Sub-total                                                                                                  6,823        164      449.8    737    1,378  1,574  2,713  3,820  4,878  5,936  6,835  7,874  8,933  9,991 11,081 11,930 12,632 12,800 13,888    14,907 Biom ass            Unit Nam e Pittsylvania                            Jun-94          Purchase        60          83          267        146    109      394      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -        -
(6)
Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center        Apr-12            Build          60            61          100        236    204      240    259    332    339    353    343    316    327    351    342    321    318    309    301    290      297 Altavista                                Feb-92          Convert        30            51          269        283    276      336    336    335    329    334    51    52      58    71    78    73    81    81    92    98      131 Southampton                              Mar-92          Convert        30          51          290        30      28      272    235    247    225    242    27    28      29    30    37    31    39    37    43    48        71 Hopew ell                                Jul-92          Convert        30          51          263        306    295      307    290    303    292    299    41    39      39    45    55    51    55    61    72    73      100 Sub-total                                                                                                    297        1,189      1,000    912    1,551  1,120  1,217  1,184  1,227    463    435    452    498    512    476    494    488    509    509      599 Wind CVOW                                    Jan-21            Build          20          12              -        -                -      -      -    44    44    44    44      44    44    44    44    44    44    44    44        44 Sub-total                                                                                                    12            -        -                -      -      -    44    44    44    44      44    44    44    44    44    44    44    44        44 Total Renew ables                                                                                              7,450    1,969      2,225  2,133    3,441  3,207  4,444  5,561  6,662  6,956  7,829  8,883  9,987 11,059 12,115 12,980 13,677 13,865 14,955    16,062 (1) Per definition of &sect; 56-576 of the Code of Virginia.
(2) Commercial Operation Date.
(3) Company built, purchased or converted.
(4) Expected life of facility or duration of purchase contract.
(5) Net Summer Capacity for Biomass and Hydro, Nameplate for Solar and Wind.
(6) Dual fired coal & biomass reaching 61 MW in 2023.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 6B - Potential Supply-Side Resources for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                                Virginia Electric and Power Company                                    Schedule 15b UNIT PERFORMANCE DATA Potential Supply-Side Resources (MW)
(1)    MW          MW Unit Name                      Unit Type                  Primary Fuel Type      C.O.D.            (2)
Summer        Nameplate Solar 2020                                Intermittent                      Solar              2020        73          320 US-3 Solar 1                              Intermittent                      Solar              2020        33          142 Solar 2021                                Intermittent                      Solar              2021        91          400 US-3 Solar 2                              Intermittent                      Solar              2021        22          98 CVOW                                      Intermittent                      Wind              2021          2          12 Solar 2022                                Intermittent                      Solar              2022        110          480 Generic CT                                    Peak                        Natural Gas          2022        458          458 Solar 2023                                Intermittent                      Solar              2023        110          480 Generic CT                                    Peak                        Natural Gas          2023        458          458 Solar 2024                                Intermittent                      Solar              2024        91          400 Generic CT                                    Peak                        Natural Gas          2024        458          458 Solar 2025                                Intermittent                      Solar              2025        110          480 Generic CT                                    Peak                        Natural Gas          2025        458          458 Solar 2026                                Intermittent                      Solar              2026        110          480 Generic CT                                    Peak                        Natural Gas          2026        458          458 Solar 2027                                Intermittent                      Solar              2027        110          480 Solar 2028                                Intermittent                      Solar              2028        110          480 Solar 2029                                Intermittent                      Solar              2029        91          400 Generic CT                                    Peak                        Natural Gas          2029        458          458 Solar 2030                                Intermittent                      Solar              2030        73          320 Generic CT                                    Peak                        Natural Gas          2030        458          458 Solar 2031                                Intermittent                      Solar              2031        18          80 Generic CT                                    Peak                        Natural Gas          2031        458          458 Solar 2032                                Intermittent                      Solar              2032        110          480 Solar 2033                                Intermittent                      Solar              2033        110          480 (1) Estimated Commercial Operation Date.
(2) Summer MWs represent the firm capacity of each unit.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan
                                                              ***Confidential Information Redacted***
Appendix 6C - Summer Capacity Position for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                              Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                                                      Schedule 16 UTILITY CAPACITY POSITION (MW)
(ACTUAL)                                                                            (PROJECTED) 2015      2016      2017      2018    2019    2020      2021    2022    2023    2024      2025    2026      2027    2028      2029    2030    2031      2032      2033 Existing Capacity Conventional                              18,928    18,933      18,956  17,736  17,663  17,609    16,745  15,948  15,945  15,945    15,945    15,945  15,945    15,945  15,945  15,945    15,945  15,945    15,945 Renewable                                    553      553        553      529      523      529      535      542      545      545      545      545      545      545      545      544      544      544        544 Total Existing Capacity                    19,481    19,486      19,509  18,265  18,186  18,138    17,280  16,490  16,490  16,490    16,490    16,490  16,490    16,490  16,490  16,490    16,490  16,490    16,490 Generation Under Construction Conventional                                -          -          -        -      1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585      1,585 Renewable                                    -          -          -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -          -
Total Planned Construction Capacity            -          -          -        -      1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585    1,585      1,585 Generation Under Development Conventional                                -          -          -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -          -
Renewable                                    -          -          -        -        -          33        56      56      56      55        55        55      55        54      54      54        54      53        53 Total Planned Development Capacity            -          -          -        -        -          33        56      56      56      55        55        55      55        54      54      54        54      53        53 Potential (Expected) New Capacity Conventional                                -          -          -        -        -        -        -        458      916    1,374    1,832    2,290    2,290    2,290    2,748    3,206    3,664    3,664      3,664 Renewable                                    -          -          -        -        -          73      163      272      381      472      581      689      798      907      998    1,070    1,089    1,198      1,306 Total Potential New Capacity                  -          -          -        -        -          73      163      730    1,297    1,846    2,413    2,979    3,088    3,197    3,746    4,276    4,753    4,862      4,970 Other (NUG)                                  1,775    1,252        238      346      366      372      372      153      152      152      151      150      149      149      148      147      146      145        144 Unforced Availability                          -          -
Net Generation Capacity                    21,256    20,738      19,747  18,611  20,137    20,201    19,456  19,014  19,580  20,128    20,694    21,259  21,367    21,475  22,023  22,552    23,028  23,134    23,242 Existing DSM Reductions Demand Response                                2          2          1        1      1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1          1 Conservation/Efficiency                      -          -                  -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -          -
(1)
Total Existing DSM Reductions                    2          2          1        1      1          1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1        1          1 Approved DSM Reductions (4)
Demand Response                                81        103        70      99    100      100      101      101      102      102      102      102      102      102      102      102      102      102        102 (2)(4)
Conservation/Efficiency                        72        93        109    154      193      202      203      202      204      202      200      198      198      198      198      198      200      201        202 Total Approved DSM Reductions                  153      196        179      254      293      302      303      304      305      304      302      300      300      300      300      300      302      303        304 Proposed DSM Reductions (4)
Demand Response                              -          -          -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -          -
(2)
Conservation/Efficiency                      -          -          -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -          -
Total Proposed DSM Reductions                  -          -          -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -          -
(1)
Total Demand-Side Reductions                  155      198        181      255      295      304      305      305      307      305      303      302      301      301      301      302      303      305        306 Net Generation & Demand-side                21,411    20,936      19,927  18,866  20,431    20,505    19,761  19,319  19,887  20,433    20,997    21,561  21,669    21,777  22,324  22,854    23,331  23,439    23,548 (3)
Capacity Sale                                                                                                              -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -          -
(3)
Capacity Purchase                                                                                                        1,100    1,000      800      600      800      900      700      500      300      400        400 (3)
Capacity Adjustment                                                                                                        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -        -          -
Capacity Requirement or PJM Capacity Obligation                                                                                                  20,965  21,485    21,847    22,214  22,457    22,674  23,005  23,389    23,652  23,839    24,024 Net Utility Capacity Position                                                                                            (1,078)  (1,052)    (850)    (653)    (789)    (898)    (681)    (535)    (321)    (400)      (476)
(1) Existing DSM programs are included in the load forecast.
(2) Efficiency programs are not part of the Company's calculation of capacity.
(3) Capacity Sale, Purchase, and Adjustments are used for modeling purposes.
(4) Actual historical data based upon measured and verified EM&V results. Projected values represent modeled DSM firm capacity.
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2018 Integrated Resource Plan Appendix 6D - Construction Forecast for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name:                                Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                                                          Schedule 17 CONSTRUCTION COST FORECAST (Thousand Dollars)
(PROJECTED) 2018        2019      2020      2021      2022      2023        2024        2025      2026        2027      2028      2029      2030        2031      2032          2033 I. New Traditional Generating Facilities
: a. Construction Expenditures (non-AFUDC)      60,230      266,162    588,571    714,021    769,626    688,425      611,920      495,641    242,863    338,722    360,618    350,887    208,672    131,133    238,489      296,445
: b. AFUDC                                        153          646    1,962      4,005      5,465      6,843      7,859        8,498      8,522      9,439    10,671    10,808    10,577      4,093      4,721        1,768
: c. Annual Total                              60,383      266,807    590,533    718,026    775,091    695,269      619,780      504,140    251,385    348,162    371,289    361,695    219,249    135,226    243,210      298,213
: d. Cumulative Total                          60,383      327,190    917,723  1,635,749  2,410,840  3,106,109    3,725,889    4,230,028  4,481,413  4,829,575  5,200,864  5,562,559  5,781,809  5,917,035  6,160,245    6,458,458 II. New Renewable Generating Facilities
: a. Construction Expenditures (non-AFUDC)      127,903      551,633    748,049    718,976    710,554    594,736      717,332      753,926    768,913    773,491    657,151    525,641    196,119    848,438    890,640      896,006
: b. AFUDC                                        247        1,556    2,232      1,604      1,589      1,323      1,600        1,682      1,715      1,729    1,468      1,182        418      1,896      1,987        2,002
: c. Annual Total                              128,150      553,190    750,281    720,580    712,142    596,059      718,932      755,608    770,628    775,220    658,619    526,823    196,537    850,334    892,627      898,009
: d. Cumulative Total                          128,150      681,339  1,431,620  2,152,200  2,864,342  3,460,401    4,179,333    4,934,941  5,705,569  6,480,789  7,139,408  7,666,231  7,862,767  8,713,102  9,605,728    10,503,737 III. Other Facilities
: a. Transmission                              777,736      911,890    784,451    784,738    826,874    857,241      836,003      851,548    854,887    847,479    851,305    851,345    851,376    851,342    851,354      851,357
: b. Distribution                              727,300      770,288    847,930    839,988    852,572    864,130      882,632      886,879    888,080    885,864    886,941    711,941    711,941    711,941    711,941      711,941
: c. Energy Conservation & DR
: d. Other
: e. AFUDC                                      29,130      42,510    36,549    36,262    38,626    42,759      39,000      39,000    39,000    39,000    39,000    39,000    39,000      39,000    39,000        39,000
: f. Annual Total                            1,534,166    1,724,688  1,668,930  1,660,988  1,718,072  1,764,130    1,757,636    1,777,427  1,781,966  1,772,343  1,777,246  1,602,286  1,602,317  1,602,283  1,602,295    1,602,298
: g. Cumulative Total                        1,534,166    3,258,854  4,927,785  6,588,773  8,306,845 10,070,975  11,828,611  13,606,038 15,388,004 17,160,347 18,937,593 20,539,879 22,142,196 23,744,479  25,346,774    26,949,072 IV. Total Construction Expenditures
: a. Annual                                  1,722,698    2,544,685  3,009,744  3,099,595  3,205,305  3,055,457    3,096,348    3,037,174  2,803,980  2,895,725  2,807,153  2,490,804  2,018,103  2,587,843  2,738,132    2,798,520
: b. Cumulative                              1,722,698    4,267,383  7,277,128 10,376,722 13,582,028 16,637,485  19,733,833  22,771,007 25,574,987 28,470,711 31,277,864 33,768,669 35,786,772 38,374,615  41,112,747    43,911,267 V. % of Funds for Total Construction Provided from External Financing                  N/A          N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A          N/A        N/A        N/A      N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A          N/A 215
 
2018 Integrated Resource Plan
                                                                                            ***Confidential Information Redacted***
Appendix 6E - Capacity Position for Plan E: Federal CO2 Program Company Name                                        Virginia Electric and Power Company                                                                                                                          Schedule 4 POWER SUPPLY DATA (ACTUAL)                                                                              (PROJECTED) 2015      2016        2017      2018    2019      2020      2021    2022    2023      2024    2025  2026  2027  2028  2029    2030    2031  2032      2033 I. Capability (MW)
: 1. Summer
: a. Installed Net Dependable (1)
Capacity                                  19,481    19,486    19,509    18,265  19,771    19,828    19,085  18,861  19,428  19,976  20,543 21,109 21,218 21,326 21,875  22,405  22,881  22,990    23,098
: b. Positive Interchange (2)
Commitments                                1,757    1,252        238      346      366        372        372      153    152      152      151    150    149    149    148    147    146    145      144
: c. Capability in Cold Reserve/
(1)
Reserve Shutdown Status                        -          -          -        -        -          -        -        -      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -        -
: d. Demand Response - Existing                      2        2          1        1        1          1          1        1      1        1        1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1        1
: e. Demand Response - Approved(5)                  81      103          70      99      100        100        101      101    102      102      102    102    102    102    102    102    102    102      102
: f. Demand Response - Future(5)                    -          -          -        -        -          -        -        -      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -        -
(3)
: g. Capacity Sale                                                                                                          -      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -        -
(3)
: h. Capacity Purchase                                                                                                  1,300  1,100    1,000      800    600    800    900    700    500    300    400      400 (3)
: i. Capacity Adjustment                                                                                                    -      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -        -
(4)
: j. Total Net Summer Capability                                                                                      20,414  20,780  21,228  21,594 21,960 22,268 22,476 22,823  23,153  23,428  23,635    23,743
: 2. Winter
: a. Installed Net Dependable (1)
Capacity                                          -          -          -  19,452  21,052    21,059    20,239  20,039  20,632  21,206  21,798 22,390 22,499 22,608 23,182  23,738  24,240  24,348    24,457
: b. Positive Interchange (2)
Commitments                                        -          -          -      350      370        377        376      153    152      152      151    150    149    149    148    147    146    145      144
: c. Capability in Cold Reserve/
(1)
Reserve Shutdown Status                            -          -          -        -        -          -        -        -      -        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -        -
(5)
: d. Demand Response                                    5        4          5        8        8          9          9      10      11      11      11    11    11    11    11      11      11      11        11
: e. Demand Response-Existing (6)                      2        2          1        1        1          1          1        1      1        1        1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1        1 (4)
Total Net Winter Capability                        -          -          -  19,810  21,430    21,445    20,624  20,202  20,795  21,368  21,960 22,551 22,659 22,768 23,341  23,896  24,397  24,504    24,612 f.
(1) Net Seasonal Capability.
(2) Includes firm commitments from existing Non-Utility Generation and estimated solar NUGs.
(3) Capacity Sale, Purchase, and Adjustments are used for modeling purposes.
(4) Does not include Cold Reserve Capacity and Behind-the-Meter Generation MWs.
(5) Actual historical data based upon measured and verified EM&V results. Projected values represent modeled DSM firm capacity.
(6) Included in the winter capacity forecast.
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Revision as of 18:40, 8 September 2021

Integrated Resource Plan
ML21105A858
Person / Time
Site: Surry, North Anna  Dominion icon.png
Issue date: 05/01/2018
From: Koonce P
Dominion Energy Co, Dominion Energy Virginia, Virginia Electric & Power Co (VEPCO)
To: Peck J
Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, State of VA, State Corporation Commission
References
PUR-2018-00065
Download: ML21105A858 (231)
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