ML17340B104: Difference between revisions

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{{#Wiki_filter:Time of Detection Should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods Rob Cavedo
{{#Wiki_filter:Time of Detection Should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods Rob Cavedo


Potential Realism Improvement Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non
Potential Realism Improvement The guidance in NUREG/CR-6850 Appendix P implicitly and through example directs that the detection time be subtracted from the overall time until target damage when developing the manual non-suppression probability.
-Suppression Likelihoods 1 The guidance in NUREG/CR
Although NUREG/CR-6850 Supplement 1 (FAQ 08-0050) and NUREG 2169 remove the brigade response time from the NUREG/CR-6850 approach, the subtraction term for the detection time remains.
-6850 Appendix P implicitly and through example directs that the detection time be subtracted from the overall time until target damage when developing the manual non
As a result, the risk associated with the manual non-suppression probability is artificially high.
-suppression probability.
1 Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods


Although NUREG/CR
Identification of Relevant Guidance NUREG/CR-6850 Appendix P (pg. 8-10) 2  Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods
-6850 Supplement 1 (FAQ 08
-0050) and NUREG 2169 remove the brigade response time from the NUREG/CR
-6850 approach, the subtraction term for the detection time remains.


As a result, the risk associated with the manual non
Proposed Approach to Enhance Realism The manual non-suppression probability (NSP) curves by nature of the data collection process already include the detection time in addition to the brigade response time.
-suppression probability is artificially high.
Once a fire event is logged in a Nuclear power plant, it is detected.
NUREG-2169 used the Updated Fire Events Database (EPRI 1025284) in the development of the NSP curves. Whether the fire is detected by a detector, plant equipment failure, or personnel, the T=0 from which the fire is detected is inherently included in the manual response time curves.
3  Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods


Identification of Relevant Guidance Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non
Proposed Approach to Enhance Realism - Limitation The Tdet=0 is ONLY applicable to manual NSP evaluations.
-Suppression Likelihoods 2 NUREG/CR-6850 Appendix P (pg. 8
The time of detection must still be developed for automatic systems.
-10)
4  Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods
Proposed Approach to Enhance Realism Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non
-Suppression Likelihoods 3 The manual non
-suppression probability (NSP) curves by nature of the data collection process already include the detection time in addition to the brigade response time.
Once a fire event is logged in a Nuclear power plant, it is detected.


NUREG-2169 used the Updated Fire Events Database (EPRI 1025284) in the development of the NSP curves. Whether the fire is detected by a detector, plant equipment failure, or personnel, the T=0 from which the fire is detected is inherently included in the manual response time curves.
Example When crediting the manual suppression likelihood Tdet=0.
5 Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods


Proposed Approach to Enhance Realism - Limitation Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non
Industry Benefit This was not calculated during the October 2017 Workshop.
-Suppression Likelihoods 4 The Tdet=0 is ONLY applicable to manual NSP evaluations. The time of detection must still be developed for automatic systems.
Example Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non
-Suppression Likelihoods 5 When crediting the manual suppression likelihood Tdet=0.
Industry Benefit Moving towards more Realistic Cabinet Damage 6 This was not calculated during the October 2017 Workshop.
But considering an improvement to the NSP for electrical cabinets, this may result in a 5% reduction in CDF/LERF risk.
But considering an improvement to the NSP for electrical cabinets, this may result in a 5% reduction in CDF/LERF risk.
6  Moving towards more Realistic Cabinet Damage


Questions Moving towards more Realistic Cabinet Damage 7}}
Questions 7 Moving towards more Realistic Cabinet Damage}}

Revision as of 09:53, 22 October 2019

12/13/2017 Meeting Presentation, Time of Detection Should Be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods
ML17340B104
Person / Time
Site: Nuclear Energy Institute
Issue date: 12/13/2017
From: Cavedo R
Exelon Generation Co, Nuclear Energy Institute
To:
Document Control Desk, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
Shared Package
ML17340B096 List:
References
Download: ML17340B104 (8)
v • d • e


Text

Time of Detection Should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods Rob Cavedo

Potential Realism Improvement The guidance in NUREG/CR-6850 Appendix P implicitly and through example directs that the detection time be subtracted from the overall time until target damage when developing the manual non-suppression probability.

Although NUREG/CR-6850 Supplement 1 (FAQ 08-0050) and NUREG 2169 remove the brigade response time from the NUREG/CR-6850 approach, the subtraction term for the detection time remains.

As a result, the risk associated with the manual non-suppression probability is artificially high.

1 Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods

Identification of Relevant Guidance NUREG/CR-6850 Appendix P (pg. 8-10) 2 Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods

Proposed Approach to Enhance Realism The manual non-suppression probability (NSP) curves by nature of the data collection process already include the detection time in addition to the brigade response time.

Once a fire event is logged in a Nuclear power plant, it is detected.

NUREG-2169 used the Updated Fire Events Database (EPRI 1025284) in the development of the NSP curves. Whether the fire is detected by a detector, plant equipment failure, or personnel, the T=0 from which the fire is detected is inherently included in the manual response time curves.

3 Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods

Proposed Approach to Enhance Realism - Limitation The Tdet=0 is ONLY applicable to manual NSP evaluations.

The time of detection must still be developed for automatic systems.

4 Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods

Example When crediting the manual suppression likelihood Tdet=0.

5 Time of Detection should be Zero for Manual Non-Suppression Likelihoods

Industry Benefit This was not calculated during the October 2017 Workshop.

But considering an improvement to the NSP for electrical cabinets, this may result in a 5% reduction in CDF/LERF risk.

6 Moving towards more Realistic Cabinet Damage

Questions 7 Moving towards more Realistic Cabinet Damage

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