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Doe/Eia 2005, Website Reference Used in Chapter 8 NMP FSEIS
	ML060940480
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Issue date:	06/15/2005
From:	; US Dept of Energy, Office of Integrated Analysis & Forecasting
To:	; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
	DOE/EIA-0484(2005)
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DOE/EIA-0484(2005)InternationalEnergyOutlook 2005 July 2005 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585ThisreportwaspreparedbytheEnergyInformationAdministration,theindependentstatisticalandanalyticalagencywithintheDepartmentofEnergy.Theinformationcontainedhereinshouldbe attributedtotheEnergyInformationAdministrationandshouldnotbeconstruedasadvocatingor

reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization.ThispublicationisontheWEBat:

www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

Contacts TheInternationalEnergyOutlookispreparedbytheEner

-gyInformationAdministration(EIA).Generalquestionsconcerningthecontentsofthereportshouldbereferred toJohnJ.Conti(john.conti@eia.doe.gov,202-586-2222),Director,OfficeofIntegratedAnalysisandForecasting.Specificquestionsaboutthereportshouldbereferred toLindaE.Doman(202/586-1041)orthefollowing

analysts:World Energy and Economic Outlook. . .Linda Doman(linda.doman@eia.doe.gov,202-586-1041)Macroeconomic Assumptions. . . . . .Nasir Khilji(nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov,202-586-1294)

Energy Consumption by End-Use SectorResidential Energy Use. . . . . . . . . . .John Cymbalsky(john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov,202-586-4815)

Commercial Energy Use. . . . . . . . . . .Erin Boedecker(erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov,202-586-4791)

Industrial Energy Use. . . . . . . . . . . . .Linda Doman(linda.doman@eia.doe.gov,202-586-1041)

Transportation Energy Use. . . . . . . .Eugene Reiser(eugene.reiser@eia.doe.gov,202-586-5840)World Oil Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .G. Daniel Butler(george.butler@eia.doe.gov,202-586-9503)World Oil Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Linda Doman(linda.doman@eia.doe.gov,202-586-1041)Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Justine Barden(justine.barden@eia.doe.gov202-586-3508)Phyllis Martin(phyllis.martin@eia.doe.gov,202-586-9592)Gas to Liquids. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Aloulou Fawzi(aloulou.fawzi@eia.doe.gov,202-586-7818)Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Michael Mellish(michael.mellish@eia.doe.gov,202-586-2136)Diane Kearney(diane.kearney@eia.doe.gov,202-586-2415)Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .John Staub(john.staub@eia.doe.gov,202-586-6344)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions. . . . . . . . . . . . .Perry Lindstrom(perry.lindstrom@eia.doe.gov,202-586-0934) ii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Electronic Access and Related Reports IEO2005willbeavailableonCD-ROMandontheEIAHomePage(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html)bySep-tember2005,includingtext,forecasttables,andgraphics.TodownloadtheentirepublicationinPortableDocument Format (PDF), go to http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/0484(2005).pdf.FororderinginformationandquestionsonotherenergystatisticsavailablefromEIA,pleasecontactEIAsNational Energy Information Center. Addresses, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows:

National Energy Information Center, EI-30 Energy Information Administration

Forrestal Building

Washington, DC 20585Telephone: 202/586-8800E-mail:

infoctr@eia.doe.govTTY: For people who are deafWorld Wide Web Site:

http://www.eia.doe.govor hard of hearing: 202/586-1181Gopher Site:

gopher://gopher.eia.doe.gov9 a.m. to 4 p.m., eastern time, M-FFTP Site:

ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov Contents Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 iiiPreface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .viiHighlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1WorldEnergyandEconomicOutlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7OutlookforWorldEnergyConsumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8World Economic Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Alternative Growth Cases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14TrendsinEnergyIntensity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16EnergyConsumptionbyEnd-UseSector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17Residential Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17Commercial Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18Industrial Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20Transportation Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24World Oil Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25World Oil Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26World Oil Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27TheCompositionofWorldOilSupply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29Worldwide Petroleum Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37Reserves and Resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38Regional Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49Reserves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50Regional Demand Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65Net Electricity Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65Electricity Supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75Energy-RelatedCarbonDioxideEmissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77Reference Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78Kyoto Protocol Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .85 Appendixes Tables Figures iv Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 20051.WorldMarketedEnergyConsumptionbyRegion,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .72.AverageAnnualGrowthinWorldGrossDomesticProductbySelectedCountriesandRegions,1979-2025. . . .11 3.TransportationEnergyConsumptionandTotalOilConsumptionbyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 4.EstimatedWorldOilResources,1995-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .305.OPEC Oil Production, 1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .306.Non-OPEC Oil Production, 1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .317.WorldwidePetroleumTradeintheReferenceCase,2002and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .348.WorldNaturalGasReservesbyCountryasofJanuary1,2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .399.WorldCoalFlowsbyImportingandExportingRegions,ReferenceCase,2003,2015,and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5710.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyRegion,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7911.CarbonDioxideIntensitybyRegionandCountry,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8012.Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Participating Annex I CountriesinTwoCases,2010and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8213.EnergyConsumptionandCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyFuelinCanadainTwoCases,2010and2025. . . . . . . .84 14.Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Western EuropeinTwoCases,2010and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8415.EnergyConsumptionandCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyFuelinJapaninTwoCases,2010and2025. . . . . . . . . .85A.ReferenceCaseProjections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87B.HighEconomicGrowthCaseProjections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105C.LowEconomicGrowthCaseProjections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121D.ReferenceCaseProjectionsbyEnd-UseSectorandRegion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .137E.ProjectionsofOilProductionCapacityandOilProductioninThreeCases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 5F.ProjectionsofNuclearGeneratingCapacity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .163G.KeyAssumptionsforthe IEO2005KyotoProtocolCase. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .169H.ComparisonsWithOtherForecasts,andPerformanceofPast IEOForecastsfor1990,1995,and2000. . . . . . . . .171I.SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(SAGE). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183J.Regional Definitions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1851.WorldMarketedEnergyConsumptionbyRegion,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.WorldMarketedEnergyUsebyEnergyType,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33.WorldNaturalGasConsumptionbyEnd-UseSector,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34.Comparisonof IEO2004 and IEO2005ProjectionsforWorldNuclearGeneratingCapacity,2010-2025. . . . . . . .45.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyFuelType,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsinTwoCases,1990,2010,and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.57.WorldMarketedEnergyConsumption,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78.WorldMarketedEnergyUsebyRegion,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89.MarketedEnergyUseintheEmergingEconomiesbyRegion,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .810.WorldMarketedEnergyUsebyFuelType,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .811.Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005Projectionsfor the U.S. Refiner Acquisition CostofImportedCrudeOil,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .912.Comparisonof IEO2004 and IEO2005ProjectionsforWorldCoalConsumptionbyRegion,2015and2025. . . . .913.FuelSharesofWorldElectricityGeneration,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1014.Comparisonof IEO2004 and IEO2005ProjectionsforWorldNuclearGeneratingCapacity,2010-2025. . . . . . . .1015.WorldMarketedEnergyConsumptioninThreeEconomicGrowthCases,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 16.GrowthinEnergyUseandGrossDomesticProductfortheMatureMarketEconomies,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . .15 17.GrowthinEnergyUseandGrossDomesticProductfortheEmergingEconomies,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 18.GrowthinEnergyUseandGrossDomesticProductfortheTransitionalEconomies,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 19.EnergyIntensitybyRegion,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1620.ResidentialSectorEnergyConsumptionbyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1721.GrowthinResidentialSectorDeliveredEnergyConsumptionbyRegionandFuel,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 22.CommercialSectorEnergyConsumptionbyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1923.GrowthinCommercialSectorDeliveredEnergyConsumptionbyRegionandFuel,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Figures (Continued)

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 v24.IndustrialSectorEnergyConsumptionbyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2025.GrowthinIndustrialSectorDeliveredEnergyConsumptionbyRegionandFuel,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 26.AverageAnnualGrowthRatesforIndustrialEnergyConsumptioninEmergingEconomies,2002-2025. . . . . . .21 27.TransportationSectorEnergyConsumptionbyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2228.WorldOilConsumptionbyEnd-UseSector,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2729.WorldOilConsumptionbyRegionandCountryGroup,2002and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 30.WorldOilPricesinThreeCases,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2831.WorldOilProductionintheReferenceCasebyRegion,1970,2002,2010,and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 32.OPEC,Non-OPEC,andNonconventionalOilProductionintheReferenceCase,2002and2010-2025. . . . . . . . .30 33.ImportsofPersianGulfOilbyImportingRegion,2002and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3534.WorldNaturalGasConsumption,1980-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3735.NaturalGasConsumptionbyRegion,1980-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3736.IncreasesinNaturalGasConsumptionbyRegionandCountryGroup,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38 37.NaturalGasProductionbyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3838.NaturalGasConsumptioninMatureMarketEconomiesbySource,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38 39.WorldNaturalGasReservesbyRegion,1975-2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3940.WorldNaturalGasReservesbyRegionasofJanuary1,2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3941.WorldNaturalGasResourcesbyRegion,2005-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4042.NaturalGasConsumptioninNorthAmericabyCountry,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4043.NaturalGasSupplyinNorthAmericabySource,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4044.NaturalGasConsumptioninWesternEuropebySource,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4245.NaturalGasConsumptioninTransitionalEconomies,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4346.NaturalGasConsumptioninEmergingAsia,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4347.NaturalGasConsumptionintheMiddleEast,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4448.NaturalGasConsumptioninAfrica,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4549.NaturalGasConsumptioninCentralandSouthAmerica,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4550.WorldCoalConsumptionbyRegion,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4951.CoalShareofWorldEnergyConsumptionbySector,2002,2015,and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49 52.WorldRecoverableCoalReserves. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5053.WorldCoalConsumptionbyRegion,1980,2002,2015,and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5154.CoalShareofTotalEnergyConsumptionbyRegion,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5355.CoalConsumptioninChinabySector,2002,2015,and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5456.WorldCoalTrade,1985,2003,2015,and2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5657.CoalImportsbyMajorImportingRegion,1995-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5858.WorldNetElectricityConsumption,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6559.WorldNetElectricityConsumptionbyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6560.WorldElectricityGenerationCapacitybyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6861.FuelSharesofWorldElectricityGeneration,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6862.WorldCoal-FiredGenerationCapacitybyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7063.WorldNatural-Gas-andOil-FiredGenerationCapacitybyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70 64.NuclearSharesofNationalElectricityGeneration,2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7165.WorldNuclearPowerGenerationCapacitybyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7466.WorldHydroelectricandOtherRenewableGenerationCapacitybyRegion,2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74 67.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyRegion,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7768.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyFuelType,1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7869.CarbonDioxideEmissionsintheMatureMarketEconomies,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7870.CarbonDioxideEmissionsintheTransitionalEconomies,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7971.CarbonDioxideEmissionsintheEmergingEconomies,1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79

Preface This report presents international energy projections through 2025, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks

for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions.

TheInternationalEnergyOutlook2005 (IEO2005)presentsanassessmentbytheEnergyInformationAdministra

-tion(EIA)oftheoutlookforinternationalenergymar

-ketsthrough2025.U.S.projectionsappearingin IEO2005areconsistentwiththosepublishedinEIAsAnnualEnergyOutlook2005 (AEO2005),whichwaspre

-paredusingtheNationalEnergyModelingSystem(NEMS).Althoughthe IEOtypicallyusesthesamerefer

-encecaseasthe AEO , IEO2005hasadoptedtheOctoberfuturescasefrom AEO2005asitsreferencecasefortheUnitedStates.TheOctoberfuturescase,whichhasan assumptionofhigherworldoilpricesthanthe AEO2005referencecase,nowappearstobeamorelikelyprojec-tion.Thereferencecasepriceswillbereconsideredfor thenext AEO.BasedoninformationavailableasofJuly2005,the AEO2006referencecasewilllikelyreflectworldoilpriceshigherthanthoseinthe IEO2005 refer-ence case.

IEO2005isprovidedasaservicetoenergymanagersandanalysts,bothingovernmentandintheprivatesector.

Theprojectionsareusedbyinternationalagencies,Fed-eralandStategovernments,tradeassociations,and otherplannersanddecisionmakers.Theyarepublished pursuanttotheDepartmentofEnergyOrganizationAct

of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c).

The IEO2005projectionsarebasedonU.S.andforeigngovernmentlawsineffectonMarch1,2005.Thepoten

-tialimpactsofpendingorproposedlegislation,regula

-tions,andstandardsarenotreflectedintheprojections,noraretheimpactsoflegislationwherethemechanisms forimplementingthelegislationhavenotyetbeen announced.Forexample,the IEO2005referencecaseforecastdoesnotincludethepotentialimpactsofthe KyotoProtocol(whichenteredintoforceonFebruary 16,2005),becausethetreatydoesnotindicatethemeth

-odsbywhichsignatorieswillimplementtheProtocol.TheKyotoProtocolalsodoesnotaddresssignatoryobli

-gationsbeyondthe2012timeframe,makingitimpossi

-bleinthecontextofareferencecaseprojectionforEIAtoassesstheimpactsoftheProtocolthrough2025,theend

of the IEO2005 forecast horizon.Projectionsin IEO2005aredisplayedaccordingtothreebasiccountrygroupings(seeAppendixJforcomplete regionaldefinitions).Thematuremarketeconomies includeprojectionsforNorthAmerica(UnitedStates,Canada,andMexico);WesternEurope;andmaturemarketAsia(JapanandAustralia/NewZealand).The emergingeconomiesarerepresentedbyfourseparate regionalsubgroups:emergingAsia,Africa,MiddleEast, andCentralandSouthAmerica.China,India,andSouth KoreaarerepresentedinemergingAsia,andBrazilis representedinCentralandSouthAmerica.Thetransi

-tionaleconomiesincludeprojectionsforEasternEuropeandtheformerSovietUnion(EE/FSU).Russiaisrepre

-sented in the FSU.Thereportbeginswithareviewofworldtrendsinenergydemandandthemajormacroeconomicassump-tionsusedinderivingthe IEO2005projections.Thetimeframeforhistoricaldatabeginswith1970andextendsto 2002,providinga32-yearhistoricalviewofenergy demand,andtheprojectionsextendto2025,providinga 23-yearforecastperiod.Higheconomicgrowthandlow economicgrowthcasesweredevelopedtodepictasetof alternativegrowthpathsfortheenergyforecast.The twocasesconsiderhigherandlowergrowthpathsfor regionalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)thanassumedin thereferencecase.Theresultingprojectionsandthe uncertaintyassociatedwithinternationalenergyprojec

-tionsingeneralarediscussedinChapter1,World Energy and Economic Outlook.Newtothisreportareregionalprojectionsofend-useenergyconsumptionintheresidential,commercial, industrial,andtransportationsectors.Chapter2reviews worldwideforecastsforend-usesectorenergycon

-sumption.Regionalprojectionsforenergyconsumptionbyfuelpetroleum,naturalgas,andcoalarepre

-sentedinChapters3,4,and5,alongwithreviewsofthecurrentstatusofeachfuelonaworldwidebasis.Chapter 6discussestheprojectionsforworldelectricitymar

-ketsincludingnuclearpower,hydropower,andothercommercialrenewableenergyresourcesandpresents forecastsofworldinstalledgeneratingcapacity,which arenewtothisyearsreport.Finally,Chapter7discusses theoutlookforglobalcarbondioxideemissions.With theentryintoforceoftheKyotoProtocolonFebruary16, 2005,thisyearsoutlookincludesaKyotoProtocolsce

-nario, which is also presented in Chapter 7.AppendixAcontainssummarytablesofthe IEO2005referencecaseprojectionsforworldenergyconsump

-tion,GDP,energyconsumptionbyfuel,carbondioxide Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 vii emissions,andregionalpopulationgrowth.Therefer

-encecaseprojectionsoftotalforeignenergyconsump

-tionandconsumptionofoil,naturalgas,coal,andrenewableenergywerepreparedusingEIAsSystemfor theAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(SAGE),aswere projectionsofnetelectricityconsumption,energycon

-sumedbyfuelandregionbyend-usesector,andcarbondioxideemissions.Inaddition,theNEMSCoalExport Submodulewasusedtoderiveflowsininternational

coal trade, presented in Chapter 5.SummarytablesofprojectionsforthehighandloweconomicgrowthcasesareprovidedinAppendixesB andC,respectively,andreferenceprojectionsofdeliv

-eredenergyconsumptionbyend-usesectorandregionarepresentedinAppendixD.AppendixEcontainssummarytablesofprojectionsforworldoilproductioncapacityandoilproductioninthereferencecaseandin twoalternativecases,thehighandlowworldoilprice cases.TheprojectionsinAppendixEwerederivedfrom theInternationalEnergyModuleofNEMS.AppendixF containssummarytablesofprojectionsfornuclear capacityinfournucleargrowthcases.AppendixG providesasummaryofassumptionsunderlyingthe

IEO2005KyotoProtocolcase.AppendixHincludesasetofcomparisonsofalternativeforecastswiththe

IEO2005projections,aswellascomparisonsofhistorical IEOforecastswithactualhistoricaldata.Comparisonsofthe IEO2005 and IEO2004forecastsarealsopresentedinAppendixH.AppendixIdescribestheSAGEmodel, andAppendixJdefinestheregionaldesignationsin

-cluded in the report.

viii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Objectives of the IEO2005 ProjectionsTheprojectionsin IEO2005arenotstatementsofwhatwillhappen,butwhatmighthappengiventhespecificassumptionsandmethodologiesused.Theseprojectionsprovideanobjective,policy-neutralreferencecasethatcan beusedtoanalyzeinternationalenergymarkets.Asapolicy-neutraldataandanalysisorganization,EIAdoesnot propose,advocate,orspeculateonfuturelegislativeandregulatorychanges.TheprojectionsarebasedonU.S.and foreigngovernmentlawseffectiveasofMarch1,2005.Assumingfixedlaws,evenknowingthatchangeswilloccur, will naturally result in projections that differ from the final data.Modelsareabstractionsofenergyproductionandconsumptionactivities,regulatoryactivities,andproducerandconsumerbehavior.Theforecastsarehighlydependentonthedata,analyticalmethodologies,modelstructures, andspecificassumptionsusedintheirdevelopment.Trendsdepictedintheanalysisareindicativeoftendenciesin therealworldratherthanrepresentationsofspecificreal-worldoutcomes.Evenwheretrendsarestableandwell understood,theprojectionsaresubjecttouncertainty.Manyeventsthatshapeenergymarketsarerandomandcan-notbeanticipated,andassumptionsconcerningfuturetechnologycharacteristics,demographics,andresource

availability cannot be known with certainty.

Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025.Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in theIEO2005reference case

forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies.IntheInternationalEnergyOutlook2005 (IEO2005)refer-encecase,worldmarketedenergyconsumptionispro

-jectedtoincreaseonaverageby2.0percentperyearoverthe23-yearforecasthorizonfrom2002to2025slightly lowerthanthe2.2-percentaverageannualgrowthrate from1970to2002.Worldwide,totalenergyuseispro

-jectedtogrowfrom412quadrillionBritishthermalunits(Btu)in2002to553quadrillionBtuin2015and645qua

-drillion Btu in 2025 (Figure 1).Emergingeconomiesaccountformuchoftheprojectedgrowthinmarketedenergyconsumptionoverthenext twodecades,withenergyuseinthegroupmorethan doublingby2025.Strongprojectedeconomicgrowth drivesthedemandforenergyuseintheregion.Eco-nomicactivity,asmeasuredbygrossdomesticproduct (GDP)inpurchasingpowerparityterms,isexpectedto expandby5.1percentperyearintheemergingecono-mies,ascomparedwith2.5percentperyearinthe maturemarketeconomiesand4.4percentperyearinthe transitionaleconomiesofEasternEuropeandtheformer

Soviet Union (EE/FSU).Incontrasttotheemergingeconomies,increasesinenergyconsumptionforthematuremarketeconomies andtransitionaleconomiesareprojectedtobemoremodest.Inthecaseofthematuremarketeconomies,well-establishedenergyconsumptionpatternsand infrastructure,alongwithashiftfromenergy-intensive industriestoservices,leadtoaprojectedgrowthratefor energydemandthataverages1.1percentperyearover theprojectionperiod,comparedwith3.2percentper yearintheemergingeconomies.Althougharobusteco

-nomicgrowthprojectionforthetransitionaleconomiesshouldspurenergydemand,theoutlookforgrowthin theregionsenergyuseismoderatedsomewhatbypro

-jecteddeclines(i.e.,improvements)inenergyintensityastheEE/FSUcountriescontinuetoreplaceolder,inef

-ficient capital stock.Trendsinend-usesectorenergyconsumptioncanvarywidely,accordingtothelevelandpaceofeconomic developmentinagivenregion.Onaworldwidebasis, theindustrialandtransportationsectorsshowthefast-estgrowthinthe IEO2005referencecase,averaging2.1percentperyearinbothsectors.Slowergrowthispro-jectedintheresidentialandcommercialsectors,averag-ing1.5percentand1.9percentperyear,respectively, from2002to2025fortheworldasawhole.Inthemature marketeconomies,wherepopulationgrowthgenerally isslowornegativeovertheforecast,energyuseinthe commercialsectorgrowsatafasterpace(1.3percentper year)thaninanyotherend-usesector,basedonexpecta

-tionsofrapidincreasesintheuseofnewtelecommuni

-cationstechnologiesandofficeequipmentasthese nations continue to shift to service economies.IntheEE/FSUtransitionaleconomies,energydemandintheindustrialandtransportationsectorsisprojected togrowonaverageby1.6percentperyearfrom2002to 2025,andslowornegativepopulationgrowthaswellas improvementsinenergyefficiencyareexpectedtolead tolowergrowthratesforenergydemandintheresiden

-tialandcommercialsectors.Intheemergingcountries,incontrast,stronggrowthindemandforenergyispro

-jectedforeveryend-usesector,rangingfrom3.1percentperyearintheresidentialsectorto3.6percentper yearinthecommercialandtransportationsectors.The highergrowthratesreflecttherelativelyrapideconomic andpopulationgrowthexpectedfortheemerging

economies.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,theuseofallenergysourcesincreasesovertheforecastperiod(Figure2).

Fossilfuels(oil,naturalgas,andcoal)continuetosupply Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 1 207 243 285 310 348 366 412 504 553 598 645 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 0 200 400 600 800 1,000QuadrillionBtuMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomiesHistoryProjections Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

muchoftheenergyusedworldwide,andoilremainsthedominantenergysource,givenitsimportanceinthe transportationandindustrialend-usesectors.Non-fossilfuelusealsogrowsovertheforecast,butnotas rapidlyasfossilfueluse.Theoutlookfornon-fossilfuels could,however,bealteredbygovernmentpoliciesor programs,suchasenvironmentallawsaimedatlimiting orreducingpollutantsfromthecombustionoffossilfuel consumptionandencouragingtheuseofnon-fossil

fuels.The IEO2005referencecasehasadoptedthe AnnualEnergyOutlook2005 (AEO2005)Octoberfuturescase,whichhasanassumptionofhigherpricesthanthe

AEO2005referencecaseandnowappearstobeamorelikelyprojectionforoilprices.Worldoilpricesrosebymorethan$9perbarrel(innominaldollars)overthecourseof2004andareexpectedtoaddanadditional$11 perbarrelin2005,broughtaboutbytightoilmarketcon

-ditionsthatincludelowinventorylevels,surgingdemandinemergingAsia,andthesituationinIraq; however,suchdevelopmentsarenotindicativeofthe long-termtrendinthe IEO2005referencecase.Fromanticipatedhighlevelsthroughout2005,worldoilprices declinegraduallythrough2010to$31perbarrel(in2003 dollars)beforebeginningtorisetoabout$35perbarrel in2025.BasedoninformationavailableasofJuly2005, the AEO2006referencecasewilllikelyreflectworldoil prices higher than those in the IEO2005 reference case.Worldoiluseisexpectedtogrowfrom78millionbarrelsperdayin2002to103millionbarrelsperdayin2015and 2 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Regional Definitions in the International Energy Outlook 2005RegularreadersoftheInternationalEnergyOutlook (IEO)willnoticethat,inthisedition,thenamesusedtodescribecountrygroupingshavebeenchanged.

Althoughtheorganizationofcountrieswithinthe threemajorgroupingshasnotchanged,thenomencla-tureusedinpreviouseditionstodescribethegroups namely,industrialized,EE/FSU,anddeveloping hadbecomesomewhatdatedanddidnotaccurately reflectthecountrieswithinthem.Someanalystshave arguedthatseveralofthecountriesinthedevelop-inggroup(SouthKoreaandChina,forinstance)could

fairly be called industrialized today.

IEO2005usescountrygroupingdesignationsbasedonrelativelevelsofeconomicdevelopment.Thethree majorgroupings(orregions)usedinthisreportare thematuremarketeconomies,transitionaleconomies, andemergingeconomies.Thematuremarketecono

-miesincludenationswhoseenergymarketsaregener

-allywell-established,andwhoseindustrialsectorshavetrendedawayfrommoreenergy-intensivemanu

-facturingindustriestowardlessenergy-intensiveser

-viceindustries.Asshowninthemapbelow,thematuremarketeconomiesincludethecountriesofNorthAmerica(theUnitedStates,Canada,andMex

-ico),WesternEurope,andmaturemarketAsia(Japan,Australia,andNewZealand).Thegroupingof countriesmaybesubjectofsomedebate.Forexample, somemayarguethatMexicoshouldnotbeconsidered amaturemarketeconomy;however,itisincludedin NorthAmericabecauseofitsimportanceinenergy

trade in the region.Thetransitionaleconomiesincludethosenationsthataretransitioningawayfromthecentrallyplanned economiesoftheSovietUniontofreemarketecono-mies.ThisregionissubdividedintoEasternEurope (EE)andtheformerSovietUnion(FSU),andwithinthe FSUseparateprojectionsareprovidedforRussia.

AlthoughseveralcountriesinEasternEurope,notably theCzechRepublicandPoland,maybeseenas approachingthesamelevelofeconomicdevelopment astheirWesternEuropeanneighbors,theEastern Europeaggregationstillisuseful,particularlygivenits importancetoanalysisoftheimpactsoftheKyotoPro

-tocol:inmostoftheEE/FSUcountries,carbondioxideemissionsin2010areexpectedtobewellbelowtheir emissionstargetsforthefirstcommitmentperiodof theProtocol(2008-2012).Thus,inamodelingsense,the

traditional grouping is useful.Theemergingeconomiesincludethosecountrieswhoseeconomiesarecurrentlylessdeveloped,but whoseenergyusepatterns,ingeneral,areexpectedto beginresemblingthoseofthematuremarketecono

-miesoverthenexttwodecades.Thenationsinthisregion,whichtypicallyhavefairlyenergy-intensive industrialsectors,includesuchrapidlygrowingecono

-miesasChinaandIndia.EmergingAsia,theMiddleEast,Africa,andCentralandSouthAmericaare regionalsubgroupsintheemergingeconomiesregion.

IEO2005 World Regions 119millionbarrelsperdayin2025.Theprojectionforoildemandin2025issomewhatlowerthanthe121million barrelsperdayforecastinlastyearsoutlook,duein largeparttohigherworldoilpriceprojectionsin

IEO2005.Highersustainedworldoilpricesinthisyearsforecastdampenthemid-termprojectionsinmanyparts oftheworld,particularlyinthematuremarketandtran

-sitionaleconomies.Theimpactofhigheroilpricesondemandwouldbeevengreaterifnotfortherobust growthexpectedinChinaintheshortterm.Chinasoil useisprojectedtogrowbyanannualaverageof7.5per

-centfrom2002to2010,beforeslowingto2.9percentper year for the remainder of the forecast.Theprojectedincrementinworldwideoilusewouldrequireanincrementinworldoilproductioncapacityof 42millionbarrelsperdayover2002levels.Membersof theOrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries (OPEC)areexpectedtobethemajorsuppliersofthe increasedproductionthatwillberequiredtomeet demand,andtheyaccountfor60percentoftheprojected increaseinworldcapacity.Inaddition,non-OPECsup

-pliersareexpectedtoaddnearly17millionbarrelsperdayofoilproductioncapacitybetween2002and2025.

Substantialincrementsinnewnon-OPECoilsupplyare expectedtocomefromtheCaspianBasin,Western

Africa, and Central and South America.Naturalgasisprojectedtobethefastestgrowingcompo-nentofworldprimaryenergyconsumptioninthe

IEO2005referencecase.Consumptionofnaturalgasworldwideincreasesintheforecastbyanaverageof2.3 percentannuallyfrom2002to2025,comparedwithpro-jectedannualgrowthratesof1.9percentforoilcon

-sumptionand2.0percentforcoalconsumption.From2002to2025,consumptionofnaturalgasisprojectedtoincreaseby69percent,from92trillioncubicfeetto156 trillioncubicfeet,anditsshareoftotalenergyconsump

-tionisprojectedtogrowfrom23percentto25percent.Theelectricpowersectoraccountsfor51percentofthe totalincrementalgrowthinworldwidenaturalgas

demand over the forecast period (Figure 3).Naturalgasisseenasadesirablealternativeforelectric

-itygenerationinmanypartsoftheworld,givenitsrela

-tiveefficiencyincomparisonwithotherenergysources,aswellasthefactthatitburnsmorecleanlythaneither coaloroilandthusisanattractivealternativeforcoun

-triespursuingreductionsingreenhousegasemissions.Naturalgasisalsoanimportantenergyresourceinthe industrialsector.Theindustrialsectoraccountsfor36 percentofthegrowthinworldnaturalgasdemandover

the 2002-2025 period.Worldcoalconsumptionisprojectedtoincreasefrom5,262millionshorttonsin2002to7,245millionshort tonsin2015,atanaveragerateof2.5percentperyear.

From2015to2025,theprojectedrateofincreaseinworld coalconsumptionslowsto1.3percentannually,and totalconsumptionin2025isprojectedat8,226million shorttons.Ofthecoalproducedworldwidein2002,65 percentwasshippedtoelectricpowerproducersand31 percenttoindustrialconsumers.Intheindustrialsector coalisanimportantinputforthemanufactureofsteel andfortheproductionofsteamanddirectheatforother

industrial applications.Coalisexpectedtomaintainitsimportanceasanenergysourceinboththeelectricpowerandindustrialsectors, withthetwosectorscombinedaccountingforvirtually Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 3197019801990200220152025 0 50 100 150 200 250QuadrillionBtuHistoryProjectionsOilNaturalGas CoalRenewablesNuclear Figure 2. World Marketed Energy Use by Energy Type, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

92 111 128 142 15620022010201520202025 0 50 100 150 200 250TrillionCubicFeet Residential Commercial IndustrialTransportationElectricPower Figure 3. World Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

allthegrowthincoaluseinthemid-termforecast.Toalargeextent,theslightincreaseintheimportanceofcoal intheindustrialsectorresultsfromthesubstantial growthprojectedforindustrialenergyconsumptionin China,whichhasabundantcoalreserves,limitedaccess toothersourcesofenergy,andadominantpositionin worldsteelproduction.Coalisexpectedtoremainthe fuelofchoiceinChinasrapidlyexpandingindustrial

sector.Worldnetelectricityconsumptionnearlydoublesinthereferencecaseforecast,from14,275billionkilowatt

-hoursin2002to21,400billionkilowatthoursin2015and26,018billionkilowatthoursin2025.Morethanone-half (59percent)oftheprojectedgrowthindemandoccursin theemergingeconomies,whereelectricityuseincreases onaverageby4.0percentperyearfrom2002to2025,as comparedwith2.6percentperyearworldwide.Coal andnaturalgasareexpectedtoremainthemostimpor

-tantfuelsforelectricitygenerationworldwidethrough

-outtheforecast,accountingfor62percentoftheenergyusedforelectricityproductionin2025;however, increasesareprojectedforconsumptionofallprimary energysourcesinelectricitygenerationinthe IEO2005 reference case.Consumptionofelectricitygeneratedfromnuclearpowerworldwideisprojectedtoincreasefrom2,560bil-lionkilowatthoursin2002to3,270billionkilowatthours in2025inthereferencecase.Prospectsfornuclearpower haveimprovedinrecentyears,withhighercapacityuti-lizationratesreportedformanyexistingnuclearfacili-tiesandtheexpectationthatmostexistingplantsinthe maturemarketandtransitionaleconomynationswillbe grantedextensionstotheiroperatinglives.Further, higherfossilfuelpricesandtheentryintoforceofthe KyotoProtocolareexpectedtoimproveprospectsfor

new nuclear power capacity over the forecast period.Inpasteditionsofthe IEO,declinesinnuclearpowerwereprojectedinthemid-termforecastasaresultof expectationsthatfewnewreactorswouldbebuilt,and thatolderreactorswouldbeshutdownwhenthey reachedtheendoftheiroperatinglives.In IEO2005 ,worldtotalinstallednuclearcapacityisnotprojectedto declinebefore2025,butrisesfrom361gigawattsin2002 to401gigawattsin2015and422gigawattsin2025 (Figure4).Between2002and2025,55gigawattsofthe worldincrementinnuclearcapacityisprojectedforthe emergingAsianeconomiesalone,andanother19giga

-wattsisprojectedforthetransitionaleconomiesofthe EE/FSU countries.Hydroelectricityandothergrid-connectedrenewableenergysourcesareexpectedtomaintainan8-percent shareoftotalenergyuseworldwidethroughoutthepro

-jectionperiod.Althoughtheuseofmarketedrenewableenergysourcesexpandsinthe IEO2005referencecaseatanaverageannualrateof1.9percentfrom2002to2025,themorerapidgrowthratesprojectedfornaturalgasandcoalcausetherenewableshareofworldenergyuse

to remain flat.Muchoftheprojectedgrowthinrenewableelectricitygenerationisexpectedtoresultfromthecompletionof largehydroelectricfacilitiesinemergingeconomies, particularlyinAsia,wheretheneedtoexpandelectricity productionwithassociateddamsandreservoirsoften outweighsconcernsaboutenvironmentalimpactsand therelocationofpopulations.China,India,andLaos, amongotheremergingAsianeconomies,alreadyare constructingorplanningnewlarge-scalehydroelectric

facilities.Inthetransitionaleconomies,mostadditionstohydro

-electriccapacityareexpectedtocomefromrepairorexpansionofexistingplants.Amongthematuremarket economies,non-hydroelectricmarketedrenewables, suchaswind,solar,geothermal,andbiomass,are expectedtoaccountformostofthegrowthinrenewable energyuse,givengovernmentprogramsandpoliciesto encouragetheirexpansion.Inthematuremarketand transitionaleconomies,mosthydroelectricresources eitherhavealreadybeendevelopedorliefarfrompopu-

lation centers.Carbondioxideisoneofthemostprevalentgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere.Anthropogenic(human-caused)emissionsofcarbondioxideresultprimarily fromthecombustionoffossilfuelsforenergy,andasa resultworldenergyusehasemergedatthecenterofthe climatechangedebate.Inthe IEO2005referencecase, 4 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 392 407 401 385 361 390 401 411 42220022010201520202025 0 100 200 300 400 500Gigawatts IEO2004 IEO2005 Figure 4. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005Projectionsfor World Nuclear Generating Capacity, 2010-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004

,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004),website www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

IEO2005:EIA,System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

worldcarbondioxideemissionsareprojectedtorisefrom24.4billionmetrictonsin2002to30.2billionmetric tonsin2010and38.8billionmetrictonsin2025(Figure 5).Muchoftheprojectedincreaseincarbondioxide emissionsoccursamongtheemergingnations,accom

-panyinglargeincreasesinfossilfueluse.Theemergingeconomiesaccountfor68percentoftheprojectedincre

-mentincarbondioxideemissionsbetween2002and 2025.TheKyotoProtocol,whichrequiresparticipatingAnnexIcountries 1toreducetheircarbondioxideemissionscollectivelytoanannualaverageofabout5 percentbelowtheir1990leveloverthe2008-2012period, becamealegallybindingtreatyonFebruary16,2005,90 daysafteritwasratifiedbyRussia.The IEO2005 refer-encecaseforecastdoesnotincludethepotentialimpactsoftheKyotoProtocol,becausethetreatydoesnotindi

-catethemethodsbywhichratifyingpartieswillimple

-menttheirobligationseitherinthefirstcommitmentperiodorafter2012.Toexaminetheimplicationsofthe treatyforenergyuseandcarbondioxideemissions,a

Kyoto Protocol case was analyzed.Anumberofassumptionsweremadeindevelopingthe IEO2005KyotoProtocolcase.First,itwasassumedthatenergyusewouldnotvaryfromthereferencecasefore-castforcountriesthatarenotundertakinganemissions reductioncommitment.Inaddition,assumptionswere madeabouthowtheaffectedparticipatingregionswouldachievetheirreductions.InWesternEurope,statedintentionsthatmostoftheemissionsreductions willbeachieveddomesticallyresultedinanassumption that50percentoftheaggregateemissionsreductionfor WesternEuropewillbemetbydomesticreductions.

Withnostatedintentionaboutlevelsofdomesticreduc

-tionsinJapanorinCanada,anassumptionwasmadethatforbothcountriesa25-percentshareoftheirtotal

reductions would be met domestically.Inthe IEO2005KyotoProtocolcase,energy-relatedcar

-bondioxideemissionsintheparticipatingnationsareprojectedtobe593millionmetrictonslowerthaninthe referencecasein2025.Achievingthenationalcommit

-mentsunderthetreatyisprojectedtorequiremarginalcostsforemissionreductionsfromdomesticsourcesthat rangefrom$36permetrictonofcarbondioxideinCan

-adato$64permetrictoninWesternEurope.Continuedheavyrelianceoncoalandotherfossilfuels,asprojected fortheemergingeconomiesoftheworld,ensuresthat evenwhenthosenationsthathaveratifiedtheKyoto Protocolundertaketoreducetheircarbondioxideemis

-sionsasrequiredinthetreaty,therestillwillbesubstan-tialincreasesinworldwidecarbondioxideemissions overtheforecasthorizon(Figure6).Inthe IEO2005KyotoProtocolcase(assumingthattheKyototargets remainconstantovertheentireforecastperiod),world-widecarbondioxideemissionsriseto29.8billionmetric

tons in 2010 and to 38.2 million metric tons in 2025.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 5197019801990200220152025 0 10 20 30 40 50BillionMetricTonsHistoryProjectionsOilNaturalGas CoalTotal Figure 5. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).19902010Reference CaseKyoto Protocol Case 2025Reference CaseKyoto Protocol Case 0 10 20 30 40 50BillionMetricTonsParticipatingAnnexI Other 30.2 21.5 29.8 38.8 38.2 Figure 6. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Two Cases, 1990, 2010, and 2025 Sources: 1990:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.2010and2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

1Austria,Belgium,Bulgaria,Canada,Croatia,CzechRepublic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,FranceGermany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Italy,Japan,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Monaco,theNetherlands,NewZealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Russia, Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Ukraine,andtheUnitedKingdom.Turkey,Belarus,Australia,andtheUnitedStatesare AnnexInationsthatwillnotparticipateintheProtocol.

World Energy and Economic Outlook The IEO2005 projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, including large increases for the emerging economies of Asia. Energy resources are

thought to be adequate to support the growth expected through 2025.

TheInternationalEnergyOutlook2005 (IEO2005)projectsstronggrowthforworldwideenergydemandoverthe 23-yearprojectionperiodfrom2002to2025.Totalworld consumptionofmarketedenergyisexpectedtoexpand from412quadrillionBritishthermalunits(Btu)in2002 to553quadrillionBtuin2015andthento645quadrillion Btuin2025,ora57-percentincreaseoverthe2002to2025

time period (Table 1 and Figure 7).Inthe IEO2005mid-termoutlook,theemergingecono

-miesaccountfornearlytwo-thirdsoftheincreaseinworldenergyuse,surpassingenergyuseinthemature marketeconomiesforthefirsttimein2020(Figure8).In 2025,energydemandintheemergingeconomiesis expectedtoexceedthatofthematuremarketeconomies

by 9 percent.Muchofthegrowthinenergydemandamongtheemergingeconomiesisexpectedtooccurinemerging Asia,whichincludesChinaandIndia;demandinthis regionisprojectedtomorethandoubleovertheforecast period(Figure9).Primaryenergyconsumptioninthe emergingeconomiesasawholeisprojectedtogrowat anaverageannualrateof3.2percentbetween2002and 2025.Incontrast,inthematuremarketeconomies whereenergyconsumptionpatternsarewellestab

-lishedenergyuseisexpectedtogrowatamuchsloweraveragerateof1.1percentperyearoverthesame period.InthetransitionaleconomiesofEasternEuropeandtheformerSovietUnion(EE/FSU),growthinenergydemandisprojectedtoaverage1.6percentper

year.Thischapterpresentsanoverviewofthe IEO2005 out-lookforenergyconsumptionbyprimaryenergysource Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 7 Table 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)Region1990200220152025 Average Annual Percent Change1990-20022002-2025Mature Market Economies. . . .183.6213.5247.3271.81.31.1Transitional Economies. . . . . .76.253.668.477.7-2.91.6 Emerging Economies. . . . . . . .88.4144.3237.8295.14.23.2Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51.588.4155.8196.74.63.5 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.122.032.438.94.42.5 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.312.719.323.42.72.7 Central and South America. . . .14.521.230.436.13.22.3Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .348.2411.5553.5644.61.42.0 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources:1990and2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.2015and2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMar

-kets (2005).

207 243 285 310 348 366 412 504 553 598 645 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 0 200 400 600 800QuadrillionBtuHistoryProjections Figure 7. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

andalookatthemajorassumptionsthatformthebasisoftheforecaststhatappearinthereport.Thechapter includesadiscussionofthe IEO2005 macroeconomicforecastinthecontextofrecenteconomicdevelopments inkeymaturemarket,transitional,andemerging

economies.Aswithanysetofforecasts,thereisuncertaintyassoci

-atedwiththe IEO2005energyprojections.Inanefforttoassessissuesofuncertaintyintheforecast,thefollowing sectionconsiderssomeoftheelementsthatdrivethe IEO2005projections,whichcanresultinafairamountofvariationinforecasting.Alternativeassumptionsabout economicgrowthandtheirimpactsonthe IEO2005 pro-jectionsareconsidered,aswellasthepossibleeffectsoffuturetrendsinenergyintensityonthereferencecase

projections.

Outlook for World Energy Consumption The IEO2005referencecaseprojectsincreasedconsump

-tionofprimaryenergyfromallsourcesoverthenexttwodecades.Fossilfuelscontinuetosupplymuchofthe incrementinmarketedenergyuseworldwidethrough

-outtheforecast.Oilisexpectedtoremainthedominantenergysourceovertheprojectionperiod,withitsshare oftotalworldenergyconsumptiondecliningonly slightly,from39percentin2002to38percentin2025 (Figure 10).Worldwideoilconsumptionisexpectedtorisefrom78millionbarrelsperdayin2002to103millionbarrelsper dayin2015andthento119millionbarrelsperdayin 2025.Theprojectionforoildemandin2025isslightly lowerthanthe121millionbarrelsperdayforecastinthe InternationalEnergyOutlook2004 (IEO2004),andthedif-ferenceisinlargepartexplainedbythechangeinexpec-tationsforworldoilprices(Figure11).Inthisyears outlook,worldoilpricesareassumedtostayhigherfor longerthananticipatedinlastyearsreport,andthis dampensthemid-termprojectionsforoildemandin manyregionsoftheworldespeciallyinthemature marketeconomiesandtheEE/FSU.Theimpactof higherpricesonworldoildemandwouldbeeven 8 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005197019801990200220152025 0 50 100 150 200 250 300QuadrillionBtuHistoryProjectionsMatureMarketEconomiesEmergingEconomiesTransitionalEconomies(EE/FSU)

Figure 8. World Marketed Energy Use by Region, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

32 56 88 144 238 295197019801990200220152025 0 100 200 300 400QuadrillionBtuEmergingAsiaMiddleEastAfricaCentral&SouthAmericaHistoryProjections Figure 9. Marketed Energy Use in the Emerging Economies by Region, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).197019801990200220152025 0 50 100 150 200 250QuadrillionBtuHistoryProjectionsOilNaturalGas CoalRenewablesNuclear Figure 10. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

strongerwithouttherobustgrowthexpectedforChinainthenear-termforecast.Chinasoilconsumptionis projectedtoincreaseatanaverageannualrateof5.8per

-centbetween2002and2015,thenslowtoabouthalfthat rate in the remaining years of the forecast.Worldwide,transportationandindustryarethemajorgrowthsectorsforoildemand.Onaworldwidebasis, thetransportationsectorwheretherearecurrentlyno alternativefuelsthatcompetewidelywithoil accountsforabout60percentofthetotalprojected increaseinoilusebetween2002and2025,withthe industrialsectoraccountingforvirtuallyalltherestof

the incremental demand.Naturalgasisprojectedtobethefastestgrowingpri

-maryenergysourceworldwide,maintainingaveragegrowthof2.3percentannuallyoverthe2002to2025 period.Totalworldnaturalgasconsumptionispro

-jectedtorisefrom92trillioncubicfeetin2002to128tril

-lioncubicfeetin2015and156trillioncubicfeetin2025.Naturalgasisexpectedtoremainanimportantsupplysourcefornewelectricpowergenerationintheforecast.

Itisseenasadesirableoptionforelectricpowerinmany partsoftheworld,givenitsefficiencyrelativetoother energysourcesanditslowcarboncontentrelativeto otherfossilfuels,makingitamoreattractivechoicefor countriesinterestedinreducinggreenhousegasemis-sions.Theindustrialsectoralsoremainsanimportantend-useconsumerfornaturalgasworldwide.Theelec

-tricpowersectoraccountsfornearly50percentoftheincreaseinglobalnaturalgasdemandoverthe2002to 2025period,andtheindustrialsectoraccountsfor

another 36 percent.Coaluseworldwideisprojectedtoincreaseby2.0billionshorttonsbetween2002and2015andbyanother1.0bil

-lionshorttonsbetween2015and2025.Inthisyearsout

-lookforcoal,allregionsoftheworldshowsomeincreaseincoaluse,exceptforWesternEurope,where naturalgasand,toalesserextent,renewableenergy sourcesareincreasinglybeingsubstitutedforcoaltofuel electricpowergeneration.Onaregionalbasis,slightly lowercoaluseisanticipatedrelativetolastyearsout

-lookinthematuremarketeconomies.InthetransitionaleconomiesoftheEE/FSUregion,coalusewasexpected todeclinesomewhatinthe IEO2004forecast,butinthisyearsforecastitisexpectedtoincreaseby0.5percent

per year between 2002 and 2025.

The IEO2005forecastforcoaluseintheemergingecono

-miesisnearly13percenthigherthanin IEO2004 (Figure12).Thelargestincreasesincoaluseworldwidearepro-jectedforChinaandIndia,wherecoalsuppliesareplen-tiful.Together,ChinaandIndiaaccountfor87percentof theprojectedriseincoaluseintheemergingeconomies regionand72percentofthetotalworldincreaseincoal

demand over the forecast period.Electricitygenerationisexpectedtonearlydoublebetween2002and2025,from14,275billionkilowatt-hoursto26,018billionkilowatthours.Thestrongest Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 9197019801990200220152025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 702003DollarsperBarrelHistoryProjectionsIEO2005IEO2004 Figure 11. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005Projectionsfor the U.S. Refiner Acquisition Cost of Imported Crude Oil, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),AnnualEnergyReview2003,DOE/EIA-0384(2003)(Washing

-ton,DC,September2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/emeu/

aer/contents.html.

IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook 2004,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

IEO2005: AEO-2005OctoberFuturesCasefromEIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook 2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February 2005), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html.

200220152025 0 2 4 6

8 10 12BillionShortTonsMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomies 5.3 7.6 8.2 7.2 6.3IEO2004IEO2005IEO2004IEO2005 Figure 12. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005Projectionsfor World Coal Consumption by Region, 2015 and 2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004),websitewww.

eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

IEO2005:EIA,Systemforthe Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

growthinnetelectricityconsumptionisprojectedfortheemergingeconomiesoftheworld,averaging4.0percent peryearinthe IEO2005referencecase,comparedwithaprojectedaverageincreaseof2.6percentperyearworld

-wide.Robusteconomicgrowthinmanyoftheemergingeconomiesisexpectedtoboostdemandforelectricityto runnewlypurchasedhomeappliancesforaircondition

-ing,cooking,spaceandwaterheating,andrefrigeration.Moremodestgrowth,averaging1.5percentperyear,is

projected for the mature market economies.Asnotedabove,naturalgasisexpectedtobeafavoredchoicefornewelectricitygenerationcapacitybuiltover thenexttwodecades(Figure13).Itsrelativeenviron

-mentalbenefitsandefficiencymakenaturalgasanattractivealternativetocoal-firedgeneration.Moreover, wherefueldiversificationisdesired(asinChina,where generationisheavilyreliantoncoal-firedcapacity),nat

-uralgasisexpectedtogainshareintheelectricpowermixovertheforecastperiod.Thenaturalgasshareof totalenergyusedtogenerateelectricityworldwide increasesintheforecast,from18percentin2002to24 percentin2025,withotherenergysourcesshowing

small losses in market share.Worldwide,consumptionofelectricitygeneratedfromnuclearpowerisexpectedtoincreasefrom2,560billion kilowatthoursin2002to3,032billionkilowatthoursin 2015and3,270billionkilowatthoursin2025.The

IEO2005worldforecastfornuclearelectricitygenerationis,ingeneral,moreoptimisticthanlastyearsforecast; theprojectionfornucleargenerationin2025is13per-centhigherin IEO2005thanitwasin IEO2004.Prospectsfornuclearpowerhaveimprovedinrecentyears,with highercapacityutilizationratesreportedformanyexistingnuclearfacilitiesandexpectationsthatmostexistingplantsinthematuremarketandtransitional economynationswillreceiveapprovalsforextensions

of their operating lives.HigherfossilfuelpricesandtheentryintoforceoftheKyotoProtocolareexpectedtoimproveprospectsfor newnuclearpowercapacityovertheforecastperiod, andtheworldnucleargenerationforecastincludesnew constructionofnuclearplantsinseveralcountries.In

IEO2005,unlikepast IEOs,theworldstotalinstallednuclearcapacityisnotprojectedtodeclinebefore2025 (Figure14).Inthe IEO2005referencecase,worldnuclearcapacityisprojectedtorisefrom361gigawattsin2002to

401 gigawatts in 2015 and 422 gigawatts in 2025.Intheemergingeconomies,consumptionofelectricityfromnuclearpowerisprojectedtoincreaseby4.9per

-centperyearbetween2002and2025.EmergingAsia,inparticular,isexpectedtoseethelargestincrementin installednucleargeneratingcapacityovertheforecast, accountingfor96percentofthetotalprojectedincrease innuclearpowercapacityfortheemergingeconomies.

Ofthe55gigawattsofadditionalinstallednucleargen-eratingcapacityprojectedforemergingAsia,24giga-wattsisprojectedforChina,12gigawattsforIndia,and

12 gigawatts for South Korea.Althoughtheuseofhydroelectricityandothergrid-connectedrenewableenergysourcesisexpectedtocon-tinuetoexpandovertheprojectionperiod,increasingby 1.9percentperyear,morerapidgrowthisprojectedfor bothnaturalgasandcoaldemandinthereferencecase.

10 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 200520022010201520202025 0 20 40 60 80 100PercentofTotal Oil Coal Renewables

Nuclear NaturalGas Figure 13. Fuel Shares of World Electricity Generation, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

392 407 401 385 361 390 401 411 42220022010201520202025 0 100 200 300 400 500Gigawatts IEO2004 IEO2005 Figure 14. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005Projectionsfor World Nuclear Generating Capacity, 2010-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004

,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004),website www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

IEO2005:EIA,System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Still,renewablesareexpectedtoretainan8-percentshareoftotalworldenergyconsumptionthroughoutthe 2002to2025period.Muchofthegrowthinrenewable energysourcesisexpectedtoresultfromlarge-scale hydroelectricpowerprojectsinthedevelopingworld, particularlyamongthenationsofemergingAsia.China, India,andLaos,amongotheremergingAsianecono

-mies,arealreadyconstructingorhaveplanstoconstructambitioushydroelectricprojectsinthecomingdecades.

World Economic OutlookEconomicgrowthisamongthemostimportantfactors tobeconsideredinprojectingchangesintheworlds futureenergyconsumption.Inthe IEO2005 forecast,assumptionsaboutregionaleconomicgrowthmea

-suredintermsofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP),inreal2000U.S.dollarsatpurchasingpowerparityrates underlietheprojectionsofregionalenergydemand(seeboxonpage13fordiscussionofrealGDPatpurchasing power parity rates).Overthe2002to2025period,worldeconomicgrowthisprojectedtoaverage3.9percentannually(Table2).This growthprojectionisslightlyhigherthanthe IEO2004projection,becauseeconomicperformanceinmost regionsoftheworldwasexceptionallystrongin2003 and2004.Themedium-tolong-termoutlookforworld

-wideeconomicgrowthdependsontheunderlyingdemographicandproductivitytrendsineacheconomy, whichwilldeterminethenatureandcharacterof long-termgrowth,especiallyindeveloped,maturemar

-keteconomiesthathavewell-establishedandstablepoliticalinstitutionsandmarketsforgoodsandservices, labor, and financial assets.Inemergingnationsthatstillareintheprocessofbuildinghumanandphysicalcapitalinfrastructures, Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 11 Table 2. Average Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic Product by Selected Countries and Regions, 1979-2025 (Percent per Year)

RegionHistoryProjections1979-200220022003200420052005-20152015-20252002-2025Mature Market Economies. . . . . . .2.61.42.13.42.82.62.42.5United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.91.93.04.43.63.12.93.1 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.42.03.03.32.82.02.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.70.71.34.03.73.94.13.9 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.5-0.32.54.12.01.71.21.7 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.31.10.92.22.12.12.02.0 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . . .3.24.03.03.83.22.62.42.6Transitional Economies. . . . . . . . .-0.54.46.67.06.24.53.74.4Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . .-1.05.27.97.86.74.63.74.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.92.73.75.14.94.33.84.1Emerging Economies. . . . . . . . . . .5.04.85.96.45.95.34.75.1Emerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.85.97.36.96.45.74.95.5China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.48.09.18.67.26.45.36.2 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.64.68.25.76.45.45.25.5 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.76.93.14.35.84.82.83.9 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.44.14.85.85.14.84.34.6Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.44.83.17.46.24.43.94.3 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.43.43.94.65.04.23.64.0 Central and South America. . . . . . .2.2-0.51.24.13.74.04.03.9Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.41.9-0.24.33.83.94.03.8 Total WorldPurchasing Power Parity Rates. .3.02.93.94.94.33.93.63.9 Market Exchange Rates. . . . . . . .2.72.02.33.13.43.13.03.0Note:Allgrowthratespresentedinthistableareexpressedaspurchasingpowerparityrates,exceptforthefinallineofthetable, which presents world GDP growth rates expressed as market exchange rates.

Sources:PurchasingPowerParityRates:A.Heston,R.Summers,andB.Aten,PennWorldTableVersion6.1(Philadelphia,PA:CenterforInternationalComparisonsattheUniversityofPennsylvania(CICUP),October2002),websitehttp://pwt.econ.upenn.

edu/php_site/pwt_index.php.HistoricalGrowthRates:GlobalInsight,Inc.,WorldOverview(Lexington,MA,variousissues).ProjectedGDPGrowthRates:GlobalInsight,Inc.,WorldOverview,FirstQuarter2005(Lexington,MA,March2005);andEnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(WashingtonDC,January2005).Chinasgrowth rates were adjusted downward, based on the analysts judgment.

establishingcredibleandeffectiveregulatorymecha

-nismstogovernmarkets,andensuringpoliticalstabil

-ity,progressinachievingthosegoalswillplayanequallyimportantroleindeterminingmedium-to long-termgrowth.Thetransitionaleconomiesfacetheir ownuniquesetsofproblemsastheycontinuemoving fromcentrallyplannedtodecentralizedprivatemarkets.

Therefore,incontrasttothematuremarketeconomies, thereisabroaderrangeofuncertaintyaroundtherefer

-encecaseprojectionsofeconomicgrowthforemerging and transitional economies.

Mature Market EconomiesIntheUnitedStates,GDPisprojectedtogrowbyanaverageof3.1percentperyearbetween2005and2015, withsomewhatslowergrowth2.9percentperyear expectedbetween2015and2025asthebabyboomgen

-erationretiresandlaborforcegrowthslows.Comparedwiththesecondhalfofthe1990s,U.S.GDPgrowthrates werelowerfrom2000to2002butreboundedto3.0per

-centin2003andanestimated4.4percentin2004.Intheforecast,theU.S.economystabilizesatitslong-term

growth path between 2005 and 2010.Canadahasthepotentialtomaintainstronggrowthinproductivityanditsstandardoflivingbyincreasingthe laborforceparticipationrate,focusingonimmigration, strengtheningpoliciesoneducationandinnovation,and reducingstructuralunemployment.Laborforcegrowth isprojectedtoslowinthemediumtolongterm,how-ever,andCanadasoverallpotentialeconomicgrowthis expectedtofallfromthecurrent3.0percentto2.8per-centperyearbetween2005and2015and2.0percentper

year between 2015 and 2025.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,MexicosGDPisprojectedtogrowbyanaverageof3.9percentperyearfrom2002 to2025.Globalfinancialmarketsremainfriendlyto Mexicointermsoftheavailabilityandcostofcreditand thevolumeofforeigndirectinvestment.Ingeneral, strongtradetieswiththeUnitedStatesareexpectedto helpcushionMexicofromdeepereconomictroubles.By thesametoken,Mexicosfuturegrowthisalsomore

dependent on U.S. growth.WesternEuropesGDPisprojectedtogrowby2.0per

-centperyearbetween2002and2025inthereferencecase.Overthemediumtolongtermtherearestructural impedimentstoeconomicgrowthinmanyWestern Europeancountries,relatedtotheregionslabormar

-kets,productmarkets,andcostlysocialwelfaresystems.ReformstoimprovethecompetitivenessofEuropean laborandproductmarketscouldyieldsignificantdivi

-dends in terms of increases in regional output [

1].JapansGDPgrowthisprojectedtoaverage1.7percentperyearfrom2002to2015andthentoslowto1.2 percentperyearfrom2015to2025.Intheshortterm,Japanshighlyskilledlaborforceandstrongworkethicareexpectedtosupporttheprojectedgrowthrateof1.7 percentperyear,providedthatmoreflexiblelaborpoli

-ciesallowinggreatermobilityforworkersareadopted.Towardtheendofthisdecade,normalattritionis expectedtoeliminatesurplusemploymentlevels,espe

-ciallyintheindustrialsector,allowingconsolidationandimprovedefficiencies.Moreimportantly,thebank

-ruptfirmskeptafloatbycreditorsareexpectedtobegoneand,therefore,nolongeradrainontheeconomy.

Inaddition,thebadloansthathaveplaguedJapans banksareexpectedtobereducedtoapointatwhich lendingcanresume.Inthelongterm,after2010,Japans populationisexpectedtodecline,andtheaverageage willcontinuetoriseasaresultoflowbirthratesand highlongevity.Asaresult,transferpaymentsbythe governmenttotheelderlycouldbecomeincreasingly

burdensome, leading to slower GDP growth.

Transitional EconomiesOverthe2002-2025period,anaverageannualgrowthof4.6percentisexpectedfortheFSUasawhole.Forthe pastseveralyears,theFSUeconomieshavebeenlargely shelteredfromglobaleconomicuncertainties,recording stronggrowthineachyearsince2000.Thistrendis largelytheresultofrobustdomesticdemand,inaddi-tiontotheimpactthatrisingoilpriceshavehadonthe oil-exportingnationsoftheregion.Highworldoilprices havestimulatedinvestmentoutlays,especiallyinthe energysectoroftheCaspianregion.Giventhevolatility ofenergymarketprices,however,itisunlikelythat theseeconomieswillbeabletosustainthegrowthrates recentlyachieveduntildiversificationfromenergy becomesmorebroadlybased.Thelong-termgrowth prospectsoftheFSUeconomieshingeontheirsuccessin economicdiversification,aswellasfurtherimprove

-ments in domestic product and financial markets.Anaverageannualexpansionof4.1percentperyearisprojectedforEasternEuropesGDPoverthe2002to 2025period.Theaccessionof10EasternEuropeancoun

-triestomembershipintheEuropeanUnioninMay2004(Poland,CzechRepublic,Slovakia,Hungary,Estonia, Latvia,Lithuania,Slovenia,Malta,andCyprus)is expectedtoboostconsumerconfidenceandeconomic activityinthemediumtolongterm.Membershipinthe EuropeanUnionisexpectedtoresultinmoreforeign directinvestment,bolsteringdomesticinvestmentand

growth.Emerging EconomiesMuchofthegrowthinworldeconomicactivitybetween2002and2025isexpectedtooccuramongthenationsof emergingAsia,whereregionalGDPisprojectedtogrow by5.5percentperyear.China,emergingAsiaslargest economy,isexpectedtocontinueplayingamajorrole onboththesupplyanddemandsidesoftheglobal 12 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 economy.IEO2005projectsanaverageannualgrowthrateofapproximately6.2percentforChinaseconomy overthe2002to2025period.Thecountryseconomic growthisexpectedtobethehighestintheworld.In 2025,basedonshareofworldGDP(convertedusingpurchasepowerparityrates),Chinaisexpectedtobethe worlds largest economy.Intermsofstructuralissuesthathaveimplicationsforthemediumtolongterm,Chinastillneedstoreform Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 13 GDP Comparisons Based on Purchasing Power Parity Exchange RatesRegularreadersoftheInternationalEnergyOutlook (IEO)willnoticethat,inthisedition,theprojectionsofrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)fordifferentcoun

-triesandregionshavebeenconvertedtoU.S.dollarsbyusingpurchasingpowerparity(PPP)exchangerates.

Inallpreviouseditionsofthe IEO,startingfrom1985,marketexchangerateswereusedfortheconversionof

real GDP projections.PPPexchangeratesaredefinedasratesofcurrencyconversionthatequalizethepurchasingpowerofdif

-ferentcurrencies.Forexample,ifthepriceofaham

-burgerinIndiais60rupeesandintheUnitedStatesitis$2.20,thenthePPPexchangerateforhamburgers betweenIndiaandtheUnitedStatesis60rupeesto

$2.20or27.3rupeestothedollar.ThisconceptofPPP foronegoodisgeneralizedtoacommonbasketof goodsandservicesinthedifferentcountriestoobtain PPPratesinpractice.Marketexchangeratesonthe otherhandaretheforeigncurrencypricesofthedollar (oralternativelythedollarpricesofforeigncurrencies)

as traded in the foreign exchange markets.In2004theaveragemarketexchangerateforadollarintermsofIndianrupeeswas45.3,comparedwithan averagePPPrateof7.3.Generally,PPPratesaremuch lowerthanmarketexchangeratesinemergingecono

-mies,implyingthatadollarbuysalotmorein,forexample,IndiaorChinathanintheUnitedStates.

Thus,convertingemergingcountriesGDPsintodol

-larsatmarketexchangeratescanunderstatethetrue size of their economies and their living standards.RealGDPprojectionsforcountryandregionshavebeenemployedasoneofthemajordeterminantsinthe worldenergyforecastscontainedineveryeditionof

IEO.ItwasstatedintheInternationalEnergyOutlook 2004(pp.17-18)thattheenergyprojectionswerenotaffectedbythechoicebetweenmarketexchangeandPPPratesforGDPconversions,becausebothratesof conversionwouldleaveunchangedtheunderlying ratesofgrowthofrealeconomicactivity.

ainthevari-ouscountries/regions.However,somereadershaverightlyobjectedtothepresentationofrealGDPprojec

-tionsinacommoncurrencybasedonmarketexchange rates, bbecausetheyunderstatethetruesizeofemerg

-ingeconomies.Asaresult,theirgrowthratesgetrela

-tivelylessweightthantheyshould,andwhentheyareaggregatedtoregionsandfinallytotheworld,the regionalandworldgrowthratesareunderestimated.

Furthermore,theinternationallyagreedSystemof NationalAccounts1993,towhichtheUnitedStatesisa signatory,states,Whentheobjectiveistocompare volumesofgoodsandservicesproducedorconsumed perhead,datainnationalcurrenciesmustbeconverted intoacommoncurrencybymeansofpurchasing

power parities and not exchange rates.

cTheuseofPPPratesforconvertingnationalGDPstoa commoncurrencyhasbecomewidelyaccepted,and theEnergyInformationAdministrationhasalso adoptedtheiruse.Nevertheless,careneedstobeexer-cisedininterpretingtheresults.

dMarketexchangeratesareappropriatewhentheoutcomeisclosely linkedtothecurrentexchangerate(forexample,for exportsandimports,especiallyofinternationally tradedcommoditieslikecrudeoil,automobiles,etc.).

PPPexchangeratesaregenerallyregardedasprovid

-ingabettermeasureofthechangeinglobaleconomicwell-beingandcostofliving.Inaddition,theyaregen

-erallythoughttoprovideamorebalancedestimateoftherelativeimportanceofrichandpoorcountries.On theotherhand,whilePPPisusefulforshowinghow muchacountryscurrencyisworthinitshomemarket, itdoesnotmeasureeffectivepurchasingpoweracross

borders.a For IEO2005,GDPprojectionswerefirstpreparedforindividualcountriesintermsoftheirowncurrenciesandthe2000pricesofgoodsandservices.Theprojectionswerethenconvertedto2000U.S.PPPdollarsbydividingeachcountrysrealGDPprojectionsbythePPP exchangeratebetweentheUnitedStatesandthatcountryin2000.Hadthemarketexchangeratethatexisted,onaverage,in2000between eachcurrencyandthedollarbeenusedinstead,thegrowthrateoftheresultingserieswouldnotdifferfromthegrowthrateofthereal

GDP series derived by using the 2000 PPP rate.

bIanCastles,VisitingFellow,AsiaPacificSchoolofGovernment,theAustralianNationalUniversity(formerlyheadofAustraliasNationalStatisticalOffice);andDavidHenderson,VisitingProfessor,WestminsterSchoolofBusiness,UniversityofWestminster(for

-merly Chief Economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development).

c SNA 1993, para. 1.38. See web site http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/toctop.asp.

dTheInternationalMonetaryFund,theOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment,andsomeprivate-sectororganiza

-tionsusePPPexchangeratesfortheirworldeconomicgrowthprojections.TheWorldBankandothergroupsintheprivatesectoruse market exchange rates.

overstaffedandinefficientstate-ownedcompaniesandabankingsystemthatiscarryingasignificantamountof nonperformingloans.MembershipintheWorldTrade Organizationisexpectedtoforcethegovernmentto pursuethesereforms,whichareexpectedtotransform theChineseeconomyintoonethatismoremarketori

-ented and, hence, more efficient.AnotherAsiancountrywitharapidlyemergingecon

-omyisIndia.Themid-termprospectsforIndiasecon

-omyarepositive,asitcontinuestoprivatizestateenterprisesandincreasinglyadoptsfreemarketpolicies.

AverageannualGDPgrowthinIndiaoverthe2002to 2025forecastperiodisprojectedat5.5percent.Acceler

-atingstructuralreformsincludingendingregulatoryimpedimentstotheconsolidationoflabor-intensive industries,labormarketandbankruptcyreforms,and agriculturalandtradeliberalizationremainessential tostimulatingpotentialgrowthandreducingpovertyin themediumtolongterm[

2].Withitsvastandcheaplaborforce,Indiaiswellplacedtoreapthebenefitsof

globalization in the long run.AlthoughthenationsofCentralandSouthAmericaareonfavorableeconomicgrowthpaths,theregions growthrateremainswellbelowpotential.Theweak internationalcreditenvironmentisaconstraint,asare domesticeconomicand/orpoliticalproblemsinanum-berofcountries.Growthintheregionremainsheavily dependentonthevolumeofforeigncapitalflows.Inthe longterm,beyondmacroeconomicstabilityandcom-mitmenttosoundfiscalandmonetarypolicies,the countriesofCentralandSouthAmericawillhaveto tacklegovernanceissuesandattempttocorrectsevere economicdisparitiesbetweenthewealthyandthepoor

in the regions societies.Higheroilpriceshavehelpedboostgrowthintheoil-exportingcountriesoftheMiddleEastandAfrica, andstrongpricesformanyothercommoditieshave helpedanumberoftheregionscommodity-exporting countries.ForAfricaasawhole,averageannualGDP growthof4.0percentisprojectedoverthe2002to2025 period.Inthelongerrun,Africawillcontinuetofacefor

-midableobstaclestogrowth,suchaslowsavingsandinvestmentrates,limitedquantityandqualityofinfra

-structureandhumancapital,negativeperceptionsonthepartofinternationalinvestors,andespeciallythe

impact of HIV/AIDS on population growth.

Alternative Growth CasesExpectationsforthefutureratesofeconomicgrowthare amajorsourceofuncertaintyinthe IEO2005forecast.Toaccountfortheuncertaintiesassociatedwitheconomic growthtrends, IEO2005includesahigheconomicgrowthcaseandaloweconomicgrowthcaseinaddition tothereferencecase.ThereferencecaseprojectionsarebasedonasetofregionalassumptionsabouteconomicgrowthpathsmeasuredbyGDPandenergyelastic

-ity(therelationshipbetweenchangesinenergycon

-sumptionandchangesinGDP).Thetwoalternativegrowthcasesarebasedonalternativeassumptions aboutpossibleeconomicgrowthpaths;assumptions abouttheelasticityofenergydemandareheldconstant, at reference case values.Forthehighandloweconomicgrowthcases,differentassumptionsaremadeabouttherangeofpossibleeco

-nomicgrowthratesamongtheindustrial,transitionalEE/FSU,andemergingeconomies.Forthematuremar

-keteconomies,0.5percentagepointisaddedtotherefer

-encecaseGDPgrowthratesforthehigheconomicgrowthcaseand0.5percentagepointissubtractedfrom thereferencecaseGDPgrowthratesfortheloweco

-nomicgrowthcase.Outsidetheindustrializedworld(excludingtheFSU),referencecaseGDPgrowthrates areincreasedanddecreasedby1.0percentagepointto providethehighandloweconomicgrowthcase

estimates.TheFSUsufferedasevereeconomiccollapseintheearlypartofthe1990sand,untilrecently,hasshownwide variationinitsyear-to-yeareconomicgrowth.Between 1990and2002,itsannualGDPgrowthratehasvaried from-14percentin1992to+9percentin2000.Giventhis widerange,theFSUnationscanbecharacterizedashav-ingaconsiderablymoreuncertaineconomicfuturethan thenationsinotherregionsoftheworld.Asaresult,1.5 percentagepointsareaddedandsubtractedfromthe referencecaseGDPassumptionstoderivethehighand

low macroeconomic forecasts for the FSU region.

The IEO2005referencecaseshowstotalworldenergyconsumptionreaching645quadrillionBtuin2025,with thematuremarketeconomiesprojectedtoconsume272 quadrillionBtu,thetransitionalEE/FSUcountries78 quadrillionBtu,andtheemergingeconomies295qua

-drillionBtu.Inthehigheconomicgrowthcase,totalworldenergyusein2025isprojectedtobe708quadril

-lionBtu,64quadrillionBtu(or32millionbarrelsoilequivalentperday)higherthaninthereferencecase.

Undertheassumptionsoftheloweconomicgrowth case,worldwideenergyconsumptionin2025ispro

-jectedtobe58quadrillionBtu(29millionbarrelsoilequivalentperday)lowerthaninthereferencecase,at 586quadrillionBtu.Thus,thereisarangeof122quadril

-lionBtuaboutone-fifthofthetotalconsumptionpro

-jectedfor2025inthereferencecasebetweentheprojectionsinthehighandloweconomicgrowthcases (Figure 15).

Trends in Energy IntensityAnothermajorsourceofuncertaintysurrounding long-termforecastsistherelationshipofenergyuseto 14 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 GDPorenergyintensityovertime.Economicgrowthandenergydemandarelinked,butthestrength ofthatlinkvariesamongregionsovertime.Inthe maturemarketeconomies,historyshowsthelinktobea relativelyweakone,withenergydemandlagging behindeconomicgrowth(Figure16).Intheemerging economies,demandandeconomicgrowthhavebeen closelycorrelatedwithenergydemandgrowthformuch ofthepastthreedecades(Figure17).Economicgrowth hasonlyrecently(thatis,withinthepastdecadeorso) beguntooutpacegrowthinenergyuseamongthe

emerging economies of the world.ThehistoricalbehaviorofenergyintensityintheFSUisproblematic.SinceWorldWarII,theEE/FSUeconomies havehadhigherlevelsofenergyintensitythaneitherthe maturemarketoremergingeconomies.IntheFSU,how

-ever,energyconsumptiongenerallygrewmorequicklythanGDPuntil1990(Figure18),whenthecollapseofthe SovietUnioncreatedasituationinwhichbothincome andenergyusedeclined,butGDPfellmorequicklyand, asaresult,energyintensityincreased.Onlysincethelate 1990s,afterthe1997devaluationoftheRussianruble, havetheRussianandUkrainianindustrialsectorsbegun tostrengthen.Asaresult,economicgrowthintheFSU hasbeguntooutpacegrowthinenergyusesignificantly, andenergyintensityhasbeguntodeclineprecipitously.

Overtheforecasthorizon,energyintensityinthe EE/FSUregionisexpectedtocontinuetodeclinebut stillremainhigherthaninanyotherregionoftheworld (Figure 19).Thestageofeconomicdevelopmentandthestandardoflivingofindividualsinagivenregionstronglyinfluencethelinkbetweeneconomicgrowthandenergydemand.Advancedeconomieswithhighlivingstandardshavea relativelyhighlevelofenergyusepercapita,butthey alsotendtobeeconomieswherepercapitaenergyuseis stableorchangesveryslowly.Inmaturemarketecono

-mies,thereisahighpenetrationrateofmodernappliancesandmotorizedpersonaltransportation equipment.Totheextentthatspendingisdirectedto energy-consuminggoods,itinvolvesmoreoftenthan Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 15197019801990200220152025 0 200 400 600 800QuadrillionBtuHistoryProjectionsLowEconomicGrowthReferenceHighEconomicGrowth Figure 15. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).197019801990200220152025 0 5 10 15 20Index,1970=1HistoryProjectionsEnergyUseGrossDomestic Product Figure 16. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Mature Market

Economies, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).197019801990200220152025 0 5 10 15 20Index,1970=1HistoryProjectionsEnergyUseGrossDomestic Product Figure 17. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Emerging

Economies, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

notpurchasesofnewequipmenttoreplaceoldcapitalstock.Thenewstockisoftenmoreefficientthanthe equipmentitreplaces,resultinginaweakerlink

between income and energy demand.Thepaceofimprovementinenergyintensitymaychange,givendifferentassumptionsofmacroeconomic growthovertime.Fastergrowthinincomemeansa fasterrateofdeclineinenergyintensity.Worldwide energyintensityinthe IEO2005higheconomicgrowthrateisprojectedtoimproveby2.1percentperyearon averagefrom2002to2025,comparedwith1.9percentin thereferencecase.Ontheotherhand,slowereconomic growthwouldresultinaslowerrateofdeclineinenergy intensity.Underthe IEO2005assumptionsforGDPgrowthinthelowmacroeconomicgrowthcase,worldenergyintensityisprojectedtodeclinebyanaverageof

only 1.5 percent per year over the projection period.

References 16 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 20051.InternationalMonetaryFund,EconomicProspectsandPolicyIssues,inWorldEconomicOutlook(Washington,DC,April2005),p.28,websitewww.

imf.org/ external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/02/.2.InternationalMonetaryFund,EconomicProspectsandPolicyIssues,inWorldEconomicOutlook:Glob

-alizationandExternalImbalances(Washington,DC,April2005),p.29,websitewww.imf.org/external/

pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/.197019801990200220152025 0 5 10 15 20Index,1970=1HistoryProjectionsEnergyUseGrossDomestic Product Figure 18. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Transitional

Economies, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).197019801990200220152025 0 5 10 15 20ThousandBtuper2000DollarofGDPHistoryProjectionsMatureMarketEconomiesEmergingEconomiesTransitionalEconomies Figure 19. Energy Intensity by Region, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors

varies widely among regions and from country to country.Onewayoflookingatthefutureofworldenergymar

-ketsistoconsidertrendsinenergyconsumptionattheend-usesectorlevel.Withtheexceptionofthetranspor

-tationsector,whichisalmostuniversallydominatedbypetroleumproductsatpresent,themixofenergyusein theresidential,commercial,andindustrialsectorscan varywidelyfromcountrytocountry,dependingona combinationofregionalfactors,suchastheavailability ofenergyresources,thelevelofeconomicdevelopment, andpolitical,social,anddemographicfactors.This chapteroutlinestheInternationalEnergyOutlook2005 (IEO2005)forecastforregionalenergyconsumptionby end-use sector.

Residential SectorTheresidentialsectorisdefinedbytheenergycon-sumedinhouseholds,excludingtransportationuses.

Thephysicalsizeofresidentialstructuresisthemost importantfactorindeterminingtheamountofenergy usedbytheiroccupants.Largerhomesrequiremore energytoprovideheating,airconditioning,andlight-ing,andtheytendtoincludemoreenergy-usingappli-ances,suchastelevisionsandlaundryequipment.

Smallerstructuresrequirelessenergy,becausetheycon

-tainlessspacetobeheatedorcooled,producelessheattransferwiththeoutdoorenvironment,andhavefewer

occupants.Thetypeandamountofenergyusedbyhouseholdsvaryfromcountrytocountry,dependingonincomelev

-els,naturalresources,andavailableenergyinfrastruc

-ture.Ingeneral,householdsinthematuremarketeconomiesusemoreenergythanthoseinthetransi

-tionaloremergingeconomies,inpartbecausetheytendtoincludemoreenergy-usingappliances.Consequently, residentialsectorenergyusegenerallyishigherinthe maturemarketeconomies(Figure20).Inmostofthe worldscountries,residentialenergyuseisexpectedto increaseashouseholdscontinuetopurchaseadditional

electricity-using appliances.

Mature Market EconomiesHouseholdsinmaturemarketeconomiesuseenergymoreintensivelythanthoseinlessdevelopedecono

-mies,primarilybecauseofhigherincomelevels.InNorthAmerica,energyuseinMexicosresidentialsec

-torisexpectedtonearlydoubleby2015(relativeto2002),to1.1quadrillionBtu;growthinelectricityde

-mandisresponsibleformostoftheprojectedincrease.After2015,thegrowthinMexicosresidentialdelivered energyuseisexpectedtoslow,reaching1.3quadrillion Btuin2025.Onaverage,thecountrysresidentialenergy consumptionincreasesintheforecastby3.4percentper

year from 2002 to 2025.IntheUnitedStates,whichisbyfarthelargestresiden

-tialenergyconsumerintheregion(andintheworld),totalresidentialelectricityuseisprojectedtogrowon averageby1.6percentperyear,to5.4quadrillionBtuin 2015and6.2quadrillionBtuin2025,from4.3quadrillion Btuin2002.Increasinguseofelectricappliancescontrib-utesmosttotheexpectedgrowthinresidentialelectric-

ity demand through 2025.InWesternEuropeandmaturemarketAsia,unlikeNorthAmerica,residentialdeliveredenergyconsump-tioncombinedisnotprojectedtoincreasethrough2025, becauseincreasesinelectricityuseareexpectedtobeoff-setbydecreasesinfossilfueluse,andbecausepopula-tioninbothregionscombinedisprojectedtoincreaseby lessthan1.0percentfrom2002to2025.InWestern Europe,residentialelectricityuseisexpectedtogrowby Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 1720022010201520202025 0 10 20 30 40 50QuadrillionBtuMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomies Figure 20. Residential Sector Energy Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

0.4percentperyearthrough2025,adding0.3quadril

-lionBtuofconsumption,whileallotherfueluseinthesectordeclinesby0.7quadrillionBtu.Asimilarpattern isprojectedformaturemarketAsiabutwithsmaller decreasesinfossilfueluse,resultinginessentiallyno increaseinresidentialdeliveredenergyconsumption

from 2002 to 2025.

Transitional EconomiesAshouseholdsinEasternEuropeandtheformerSovietUnion(EE/FSU)transitiontomarketeconomies,more energyservicesandenergy-usingappliancesare expectedtobecomeavailableovertime.Residential electricityuseintheregionisprojectedtonearlydouble, from1.4quadrillionBtuin2002to2.2quadrillionBtuin 2015and2.7quadrillionBtuin2025.Thetransitionaway fromstate-rundistrictheatingmethodsallowsfor increasesinnaturalgasandoilconsumptionaswell.

Naturalgasconsumptionintheregionsresidentialsec

-torisprojectedtogrowbyanaverageof1.5percentperyearfrom2002through2015andanaverageof1.2per

-centperyearfrom2002through2025,asenergyservicecompaniesincreasinglyservehomesdirectly,rather

than through district services.

Emerging EconomiesHouseholdenergyuseisprojectedtoincreasemostrap-idlyinthecomingdecadesinthenationswithemerging economies,relativetoothernations(Figure21).InChina andIndia,populationgrowthandurbanizationwillcre-atelargeincreasesindemandforresidentialenergyser-vices.Asaresult,theemergingeconomiesin2025are projectedtonearlyequalthematuremarketeconomies

in residential energy use.ThedemandforelectricityinChinaisexpectedtomorethantripleby2025,growingonaverageby7.8percent peryearthrough2015and5.6percentperyearthrough 2025.Morerapidgrowthinelectricitydemandispro

-jectedforIndiasresidentialsector,butelectricitycon

-sumptionandtotaldeliveredenergyconsumptionareprojectedtoremainataboutone-halfthoseforChina through2025.ChinaandIndiatogetheraccountedfor37 percentofdeliveredresidentialenergyconsumptionin theemergingeconomiesin2002andareprojectedto accountformorethan43percentin2025.TheMiddle East,Africa,andCentralandSouthAmericaallarepro

-jectedtoseesubstantialincreasesinresidentialenergyconsumptionaswell,accountingfor42percentofthe 13.6quadrillionBtuincreaseinresidentialsectordeliv

-eredenergyconsumptionintheemergingeconomies through 2025.

Commercial SectorThecommercialsectoroftenreferredtoastheservices sectorortheservicesandinstitutionalsectorconsists ofbusinesses,institutions,andorganizationsthatpro-videservices.Thesectorencompassesmanydifferent typesofbuildingsandawiderangeofactivitiesand energy-relatedservices.Examplesofcommercialsector facilitiesincludeschools,stores,correctionalinstitu-tions,restaurants,hotels,hospitals,museums,office buildings,banks,andevenstadiumsthatholdsporting events.Mostcommercialenergyuseoccursinbuildings orstructures,supplyingservicessuchasspaceheating, waterheating,lighting,cooking,andcooling.Energy consumedforservicesnotassociatedwithbuildings, suchasfortrafficlightsandcitywaterandsewerser

-vices,isalsocategorizedascommercialsectorenergy use.Economicandpopulationgrowthtrendsdrivecommer

-cialsectoractivityandtheresultingenergyuse.Theneedforservices(health,education,financial,govern

-ment)increasesaspopulationsincrease.Thedegreetowhichtheseadditionalneedsaremetdependsinlarge measureoneconomicresourceswhetherfromdomes

-ticorforeignsourcesandeconomicgrowth.Economicgrowthalsodeterminesthedegreetowhichadditional commercialsectoractivitiesareofferedandutilized.

Higherlevelsofeconomicactivityanddisposable incomeleadtoincreaseddemandforhotelsandrestau

-rantstomeetbusinessandleisurerequirements;forofficeandretailspacetohouseandservicenewand expandingbusinesses;andforculturalandleisurespace

such as theaters, galleries, and arenas.

Mature Market EconomiesWithpopulationgrowthforthematuremarketecono

-miesasawholeexpectedtocontinueslowing,therateofincreaseintheregionscommercialenergydemandis alsoexpectedtoslow.Inaddition,furtherefficiency 18 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005OilNaturalGasCoalElectricityTotalDelivered Energy 0 2 4 6-2-4AverageAnnualPercentChangeMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomies EmergingEconomies Figure 21. Growth in Residential Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Region and

Fuel, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMar

-kets (2005).

improvementsareexpectedtomoderateenergydemandgrowthovertimeasenergy-usingequipmentis replacedwithnewer,moreefficientstock.Conversely, strongeconomicgrowthinmaturemarketsisexpected toincludecontinuedgrowthinbusinessactivity,with itsassociatedenergyuse,inareassuchasretailand wholesaletradeandbusiness,financial,andleisureser

-vices.Thecombinationofthesefactorsisprojectedtocausecommercialdeliveredenergyconsumptioninthis regiontoincreaseby1.3percentperyearfrom2002to 2025onaverage,from16.8quadrillionBtuin2002to20.0 quadrillionBtuin2015and22.6quadrillionBtuin2025 (Figure 22).Commercialelectricitydemandinmaturemarketecon

-omiesisprojectedtogrowby1.9percentperyearfrom2002to2025,withcontinuedadvancesintechnology andtheintroductionofnewelectronicappliancesand equipment(Figure23).Electricitydeliveredtocommer

-cialcustomersintheregion,whichtotaled7.9quadril

-lionBtuin2002,isprojectedtoreach10.1quadrillionBtuin2015and12.1quadrillionBtuin2025.Naturalgasis expectedtocontinuedisplacingpetroleumproductsand coalasthepreferredheatingfuelinthematuremarket

economies, especially in Western Europe and Japan.

Transitional EconomiesManyoftheEE/FSUcountriesandtheregionasawholeareexpectedtoseetheirpopulationsdecline overtheforecastperiod.Nevertheless,increasingcom-mercialactivityandrisingincomesareexpectedtolead to1.1-percentaverageannualgrowthindelivered energyuseintheregionscommercialsectorbetween 2002and2025(Figure23).Commercialsectorelectricityconsumptionisprojectedtogrowby2.0percentperyear,to1.1quadrillionBtuin2025,asthetransitional nationsapproachtherequirementsofmarket-based economies,includingincreasedadoptionofelectronic equipment.Commercialsectornaturalgasuseispro

-jectedtogrowbymorethan50percent,from0.8quadril

-lionBtuin2002to1.2quadrillionBtuin2025.Mostoftheprojectedincreaseisattributabletotheexpectationthat naturalgaswillbeusedtomeettheheatingneedsof transitionalcountriestoagreaterextentthanithasinthe

past, replacing coal and heating oil.

Emerging EconomiesEconomicgrowthandcommerceareexpectedtoin

-creaserapidlyintheemergingeconomies,fuelingaddi

-tionalenergydemandintheservicessector.Fasterpopulationgrowthisalsoexpected,relativetothe growthratesformatureandtransitionaleconomies, portendingincreasesintheneedforeducation,health care,andsocialservicesandtheenergyrequiredtopro

-videthem.Underthesecircumstances,commercialdeliveredenergyuseintheregionisprojectedtonearly doublebetween2002and2015,to9.6quadrillionBtu, andtocontinuegrowingto11.6quadrillionBtuin2025, ata3.6-percentaverageannualgrowthratefrom2002to

2025.Electricitydemandforcommercialapplicationsisex-pectedtogrowrapidlyinemergingeconomiesasmore clinics,schools,andbusinessesgainaccesstoelectricity.

Annualgrowthincommercialdeliveredelectricityuse isexpectedtoaverage4.3percentthrough2025(Figure 23),withprojectedconsumptionof5.4quadrillionBtuin Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 1920022010201520202025 0 10 20 30 40QuadrillionBtuMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomies Figure 22. Commercial Sector Energy Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).OilNaturalGasCoalElectricityTotalDelivered Energy 0 2 4 6-2AverageAnnualPercentChangeMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomies Figure 23. Growth in Commercial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Region and

Fuel, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMar

-kets (2005).

2015and6.9quadrillionBtuin2025.Theprojectedincreaseincommercialelectricitydemandiscom

-poundedinnationswithquicklygrowingeconomies,suchasChina,astheybegintoshiftawayfromheavy

manufacturing toward services.Increasingcommercialactivityisexpectedtoleadtorapidgrowthinnaturalgasdemandaswell.Inthefore

-cast,commercialdemandfornaturalgasgrowsby5.7percentperyearfrom2002through2015andby4.6per

-centperyearfrom2002through2025,asseveraldevel

-opingcountriesfocusonexpandingtheinfrastructurenecessaryfordeliveryofthisrelativelycleanfuel.Com

-mercialsectoroilconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasefrom1.6quadrillionBtuin2002to2.4quadrillionBtuin 2015and2.6quadrillionBtuin2025intheemerging economies,increasingmorerapidlyinareaswherenatu

-ralgasavailabilityislimited.Althoughconsumptionofcoalisexpectedtoincreaseintheforecast,itsshareof commercialenergyuseintheemergingeconomiesis projectedtodeclinefrom8percentin2002to5percentin

2025.Industrial SectorEnergyisconsumedintheindustrialsectorbyadiverse groupofindustriesincludingmanufacturing,agricul-ture,mining,andconstructionandforawiderangeof activities,suchasprocessandassemblyuses,spacecon-ditioning,andlighting.Overallenergydemandinthe industrialsectorvariesacrossregionsandcountriesof theworld,basedonthelevelandmixofeconomicactiv-ity,technologicaldevelopment,andpopulation,among

other factors.Worldwide,energyconsumptionintheindustrialsectorisprojectedtogrowby2.1percentperyearfrom2002to 2025.Industrialenergyconsumptionisexpectedto increaseinallcountriesandregions;however,industrial sectorenergyuseinthematuremarketeconomies(in particular,Japan,theUnitedStates,andWestern Europe)isexpectedtogrowatamuchslowerpace1.0 percentperyearthanintheemergingeconomies (ChinaandotheremergingAsiaandtheMiddleEast),

whereindustrialsectorenergydemandisprojectedto

expand by 3.3 percent per year or more (Figure 24).

Mature Market EconomiesThematuremarketeconomiesgenerallyhavemoreenergy-efficientindustrialoperationsandamixof industrialoutputthatismoreheavilyweightedtoward non-energy-intensivesectorsthandotheothercountry groups.Forexample,intheUnitedStates,themanufac

-turingshareoftotalindustrialoutputhasdeclinedsteadilyoverthepasttwodecades,whiletheoutput shareforserviceindustries(includedinthecommercial sector)hasincreased.Additionally,withintheU.S.man

-ufacturingsector,asmallershareofoutputhasbeenproducedbytheheavy,energy-intensiveindustries(suchassteelmaking).Thesegeneraltrendsarepro

-jected to continue.Similardevelopmentsareexpectedfortheothermaturemarketeconomies,asincreasinginternationaltradefos

-tersashifttowardalessenergy-intensivemixofindus

-trialactivity.Forexample,manyofJapansheavyindustriesarereducingtheiroutputasdemandfor energy-intensivematerialsincreasinglyismetby importsfromChinaandotherAsiancountries.InGer

-many,adeclineinindustrialenergyintensityintheearly1990swaslargelytheresultofclosuresofheavy industriesintheformerEastGermanyafterreunifica

-tion.MuchofGermanysinefficient,energy-intensiveeasterncapacityhasalreadybeenshutdown,butfurther improvementsareprojectedascapitalstockisreplaced

and modernized.

Transitional EconomiesIntheEE/FSUcountries,industrialsectorenergyuseisprojectedtogrowby1.6percentperyearoverthefore-castperiod,from25.3quadrillionBtuin2002to31.4qua-drillionBtuin2015and36.4quadrillionBtuin2025 (Figure24).DuringtheSovietera,abundantenergy resourcesintheFSU,alongwithcentralizeddecision-making,ledtotheconstructionofenergy-inefficient industrialcapacity.Asthetransitiontomarketecono-miesprogresses,andasinefficientcapacityisreplaced withmodernfacilities,theintensityofenergyuseinthe industrialsectorofthetransitionalEE/FSUeconomiesis projectedtodeclinemorerapidlythaninrestofthe

world.20 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 200520022010201520202025 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140QuadrillionBtuMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomies Figure 24. Industrial Sector Energy Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

Russiahastheworldslargestnaturalgasreserves.Asaresult,naturalgasisprojectedtosupply40percentofthe increaseindeliveredenergyuseintheindustrialsector oftheFSUcountries.InthetransitionalEE/FSUecono

-mies,onlysmallchangesinindustrialfuelmixarepro

-jectedfrom2002to2025(Figure25)mostnotably,electricityisprojectedtoclaimagrowingshareofdeliv

-eredenergyuseintheFSU,andinthecountriesofEast

-ernEurope,naturalgasisprojectedtomakeupalarger share at the expense of coal.In2002,intheaggregate,thetransitionaleconomiesoftheEE/FSUregionhadahigherratioofindustrialsector energyconsumptiontoregionalgrossdomesticproduct thandideitherthematuremarketoremergingnations.

Therelativelyhighratioisaresultofthreefactors:the transitiontomarket-basedeconomieshasbeenslow;a higherproportionoftotaloutputfromtheregionisfrom theindustrialsectorthaninthedevelopedcountries(the servicesectorsarelessenergy-intensivethanthemanu

-facturingsectors);andmuchoftheindustrialsectors production is from inefficient Soviet-era facilities.

Emerging EconomiesTheemergingeconomiesareexpectedtoseethemostrapidgrowthinindustrialsectorenergyuseworldwide overtheprojectionperiod.Whereasmaturemarket economieshaveshiftedtheirindustrialsectorenergy usefromenergy-intensiveproduction(likesteeland cementmaking)toserviceindustries,theemerging economiesstillhavefairlyenergy-intensiveindustrial sectors.Projectionsofindustrialenergygrowth(al-thoughstillrelativelyhigh)arelowerthantherecenthistoricalratesforrapidlydevelopingAsiancountrieslikeSouthKoreaandChina.Energyuseforindustrial sectorpurposesamongtheemergingeconomiesispro

-jectedtogrowby3.9percentperyearfrom2002to2015,beforeslowingtoanaverageof2.4percentperyearfrom

2015 to 2025 (Figure 26).Naturalgasandoilaccountedformorethanone-halfofindustrialenergyconsumptionin2002inmostregions oftheworld.ChinaandIndiawereexceptionstothat generalization,andbothcountriesuseconsiderable amountsofcoal(50percentand37percent,respec

-tively),mostlyowingtotheirrichcoalresourcesandlackofotherdomesticenergyresourcesavailablefor

development.

Transportation SectorEnergyuseinthetransportationsectorisdominatedby petroleumproductfuels.Barringanyincreaseinthe penetrationofnewtechnologies,suchashydro

-gen-fueledvehicles,theuseofalternativefuelsisexpectedtoremainrelativelymodestthrough2025.

Thus,the IEO2005referencecaseprojectionof2.1-percentaverageannualgrowthintheworldstotal energyusefortransportationfrom2002to2025isparal-leledbytheforecastfortransportationoiluse(Table3

and Figure 27).EnergyuseforthetransportationsectorispoisedforitsstrongestgrowthintheAsianemergingeconomies.

Chinaisthekeymarketthatwillleadregionalconsump-tiongrowth.Indiaisalsoonarapidgrowthpath,and theregionsmid-sizedmarkets,suchasThailandand Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 21OilNaturalGasCoalElectricityTotalDelivered Energy 0 2 4 6AverageAnnualPercentChangeMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomies EmergingEconomies Figure 25. Growth in Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Region

and Fuel, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMar

-kets (2005).2002-20252002-20152015-2025 0 2 4 6 8 10PercentperYearChinaIndiaSouthKoreaOtherEmergingAsiaMiddleEastAfricaCentralandSouthAmerica Figure 26. Average Annual Growth Rates for Industrial Energy Consumption

in Emerging Economies, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

Indonesia,alsoareprojectedtopoststronggrowth.InChinathenumberofcarshasbeengrowingby20per

-centperyear,andthepotentialgrowthisalmostunlim

-ited.Ifthepresentpatternspersist,ChinascarownershipwouldexceedtheU.S.rateby2030;however, largeinfrastructurebarrierswillhavetobeovercomefor

this to occur [

1].Mature Market EconomiesIngeneral,thetransportationsectorofthematuremar

-keteconomiesisfullyestablished,withextensiveinfra

-structurethatincludeshighways,airportfacilities,andrailsystems.Energydemandinthematuremarketecon

-omiesisprojectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof1.2percent,from53.2quadrillionBtuin2002to63.2qua

-drillion Btu in 2015 and 69.9 quadrillion Btu in 2025.IntheUnitedStates,thetransportationsectoraccountsforalmostone-fourthofthecountrystotalenergycon

-sumption;andinthe IEO2005referencecase,U.S.trans

-portationenergydemandisprojectedtogrowfrom26.9quadrillionBtuin2002to34.2quadrillionBtuin2015 and39.4quadrillionBtuin2025.TheUnitedStatesisthe largestuseroftransportationenergyamongthemature marketeconomiesandisprojectedtoconsume56per-centoftheregionstotalforthetransportationsectorin

2025.FueleconomyfortheU.S.light-dutyvehiclestockispro-jectedtoimproveby5percentovertheforecastperiod.

Strongmacroeconomicanddemographicfactorsare expectedtoincreasethedemandforlarger,morepower-fulvehiclesintheUnitedStates;however,advanced technologiesandmaterialsareexpectedtoprovide increasedperformanceandsizewhileimprovingnewvehiclefueleconomy.Fueleconomystandardsforcarsareassumedtostayatcurrentlevelsof27.5milesper gallon,andlighttruckstandardsareexpectedto increasefrom20.7milespergallonin2004to22.2miles pergallonby2007[

2].Forthestockoffreighttrucks,fueleconomyisprojectedtoincreasefrom6.0milespergal

-lonin2002to6.6milespergallonin2025.Alargergain, 24.1 percent, is expected for aircraft.IncomparisontotheUnitedStates,transportationenergydemandinWesternEuropeisprojectedto expandmoreslowly,from16.3quadrillionBtuin2002to 22 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Table 3. Transportation Energy Consumption and Total Oil Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)Region2002 Projections Average Annual Percent Change20102015202020252002-20152002-2025 Mature Market EconomiesTransportation Energy. . . . . . . .53.259.463.266.369.91.31.2 Total Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88.896.4101.3105.5110.31.00.9 Transitional EconomiesTransportation Energy. . . . . . . .5.97.07.68.08.51.91.6 Total Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.413.113.914.815.71.51.4 Emerging EconomiesTransportation Energy. . . . . . . .26.239.146.151.958.94.43.6 Total Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59.283.695.5106.3117.43.73.0 Total WorldTransportation Energy. . . . . . . .85.3105.5116.8126.2137.22.52.1 Total Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .159.4193.1210.6226.6243.42.21.9 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).20022010201520202025 0 20 40 60 80 100QuadrillionBtuMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomies Figure 27. Transportation Sector Energy Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

17.3quadrillionBtuin2015and18.0quadrillionBtuin2025.Thetransportationsectorsshareoftotalenergy useisprojectedtoremainaboutthesameoverthefore

-castperiod,at24percent.Lowpopulationgrowth,hightaxesontransportationfuels,andenvironmentalpoli

-ciesareexpectedtoslowtherateofenergydemandgrowthinWesternEuropetoanaveragerateof0.4per

-cent per year over the 2002 to 2025 time period.OilisprojectedtoremainWesternEuropeslargestenergysourcefortransportation,withdemandincreas

-ingby0.3percentperyearonaveragefrom2002to2025.Transportationaccountsformorethanone-halfofthe incrementintotaloiluseprojectedfortheregion,with theindustrialsectoraccountingfortheremainder.

Declinesinoiluseareprojectedfortheregionsresiden

-tialandcommercialsectors.ThefastestrateofgrowthinWesternEuropestransportationfueluseisexpectedto occurintheaviationsector.Demandfordieselfuelis expectedtoincreasemorerapidlythandemandforgas

-oline,becausemostcountriesinWesternEuropeareexpectedtokeeptaxesondieselfuellowerthanthosefor

gasoline throughout the forecast period.TransportationenergyuseinJapanisprojectedtogrowatanaveragerateof0.2percentperyearfrom2002to 2025,from4.2quadrillionBtuin2002to4.4quadrillion Btuin2015andremainingatthatlevelthrough2025, mainlybecauseofJapansagingpopulation,projected lowbirthrate,andhightaxesleviedonmotorists.Pas-sengercarsinJapanaresubjecttoninetaxes,imposedon acquisition,ownership,andoperation.Thetaxes,aimed atreducingoilimportsandsecuringgovernmentfunds forinfrastructureprojects,suchasroadmaintenance andconstruction,accountforone-tenthoftotalgovern

-ment revenues.

Transitional EconomiesEnergydemandintheEE/FSUtransportationsectorasawholeisprojectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof 1.6percent,from5.9quadrillionBtuin2002to7.6qua

-drillionBtuin2015and8.5quadrillionBtuin2025.Thegrowthintransportationenergyuseinthisregionis expectedtobeledbyexpandingownershipofprivate automobilesandanincreasingroleoftruckinginfreight

transportation.

Emerging EconomiesFortheemergingeconomiesasawhole,transportationsectorenergyconsumptionisprojectedtogrowby3.6 percentperyear,from26.2quadrillionBtuin2002to 46.1quadrillionBtuin2015and58.9quadrillionBtuin 2025thehighestrateofgrowthintransportation energyuseworldwide.In2002,theemergingeconomies accountedforabout31percentofworldenergyusefor transportation.In2025,theirshareisprojectedtobe 43percent,asthegapbetweentransportationenergyconsumptionintheemergingeconomiesandinthematuremarketeconomiesnarrowssubstantiallyover

the forecast (Figure 27).Chinasenergyusefortransportationisprojectedtogrowbyanaverageof6.0percentperyearoverthefore

-cast,from4.1quadrillionBtuin2002to10.4quadrillionBtuin2015and15.5quadrillionBtuin2025.Virtuallyall oftheincreaseintransportationenergyconsumptionis projectedtobeintheformofpetroleumproducts.Road transportisexpectedtobetheprimaryfactorinChinas growingdemandfortransportationfuels.Therewere 7.5millionautomobilesand6.4millioncommercial vehiclesinChinain2002(ascomparedwith136.0mil

-lionautomobilesand89.4millioncommercialvehiclesintheUnitedStates)[

3].PersonaltravelinChinahassoaredinthepasttwodecades,withpassengermiles traveledincreasingfivefold[

4].Thosetrendsareexpect

-ed to continue over the projection period.InIndia,energydemandinthetransportationsectorisprojectedtogrowatanaveragerateof4.7percentayear, from1.4quadrillionBtuin2002to3.1quadrillionBtuin 2015and4.1quadrillionBtuin2025.Thetransportation sectorsshareoftotalenergyuseisexpectedtogrow from10percentin2002to14percentin2025.Incompari-sonwithothercountriesintheemergingAsiaregion, someofIndiastransportationinfrastructureiswell developedespeciallytherailways(althoughmany ruralareasstillarelargelyinaccessiblebyrail).Indiahas themostextensiverailwaysystemintheworld,dating backtocolonialtimes.Anestimated1.6millionpeople areemployedbythecountrysrailwaysystem,making

it the worlds largest employer [

5].InSouthKorea,transportationenergydemandispro

-jectedtogrowby1.9percentperyear,from1.7quadril

-lionBtuin2002to2.3quadrillionBtuin2015and2.6quadrillionBtuin2025.SouthKoreastotaldemandfor oilisprojectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof1.3 percent,from4.5quadrillionBtuin2002to6.1quadril

-lionBtuin2025muchslowerthantheaverageof8.0percentperyearoverthepastthreedecades,reflecting therelativematurityoftheSouthKoreantransportation sector.Justoverone-halfofthecountrysprojected increaseinoildemandisexpectedinthetransportation sector,withmuchoftheremainderintheindustrial

sector.EnergydemandinthetransportationsectorintheotheremergingnationsofAsia(thelargestofwhichareThai

-land,Indonesia,Malaysia,Singapore,Taiwan,andHongKong)isprojectedtogrowfrom6.2quadrillion Btuin2002to10.1quadrillionBtuin2015and13.1qua

-drillionBtuin2025.Thetransportationshareoftotalenergyuseintheregionisprojectedtoincreasefrom27 percentin2002to29percentin2025,asnationalecono

-miescontinuetomatureandrisingstandardsofliving result in increased motor transport.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 23 TheMiddleEastregionhasarelativelysmallpopulationandisnotamajorenergyconsumerbutratheran exporter;however,rapidpopulationgrowthisexpected toresultinmoreenergyusefortransportationinthe future.Theregionsenergydemandfortransportationis projectedtogrowfrom4.5quadrillionBtuin2002to6.8 quadrillionBtuin2015and8.0quadrillionBtuin2025.

Demandfortransportationfuelsintraditionalexporting countriessuchasSaudiArabia,Kuwait,Iraq,Oman,the UnitedArabEmirates,Yemen,and,mostnotably,Iran madetheregionanetimporterofgasolinein2003;how

-ever,thattrendisexpectedtobereversedby2010,when planned expansions of refinery capacity come on line.

References 24 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 20051.FACTSInc.,Asia-PacificDatabook1:Supply,DemandandPrices(Honolulu,HI,Fall2003),p.3,website www.factsinc.net/products/databooks.shtml.2.EnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,January2004),TableA7,websitewww.

eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/.3.S.C.DavisandS.W.Diegel,TransportationEnergyDataBook:Edition24,ORNL-6973(OakRidge,TN:OakRidgeNationalLaboratoryDecember2004),

Tables3.1and3.2,websitehttp://cta.ornl.gov/

data/Index.shtml.4.InternationalEnergyAgency,WorldEnergyOutlook 2004(Paris,France,October2004),websitewww.

worldenergyoutlook.org.5.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,AutomotiveSec

-torAnalysis:IndiaandChina(October18,2004), web site www.wmrc.com.

World Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025.IntheInternationalEnergyOutlook2005 (IEO2005)refer-encecase,worlddemandforcrudeoilgrowsfrom78millionbarrelsperdayin2002to103millionbarrelsper dayin2015andtojustover119millionbarrelsperdayin 2025.Muchofthegrowthinoilconsumptionispro

-jectedfortheemergingAsiannations,wherestrongeco

-nomicgrowthresultsinarobustincreaseinoildemand.EmergingAsia(includingChinaandIndia)accountsfor 45percentofthetotalworldincreaseinoiluseoverthe

forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case.Theprojectedincreaseinworldoildemandwouldrequireanincrementtoworldproductioncapabilityof morethan42millionbarrelsperdayrelativetothe2002 crudeoilproductioncapacityof80.0millionbarrelsper day.ProducersintheOrganizationofPetroleumEx-portingCountries(OPEC)areexpectedtobethemajor sourceofproductionincreases.Inaddition,non-OPEC supplyisexpectedtoremainhighlycompetitive,with majorincrementstosupplycomingfromoffshore resources,especiallyintheCaspianBasin,LatinAmer-ica,anddeepwaterWestAfrica.Theestimatesofincre-mentalproductionarebasedoncurrentprovedreserves andacountry-by-countryassessmentofultimately recoverablepetroleum.Inthe IEO2005oilpricecases,thesubstantialinvestmentcapitalrequiredtoproduce theincrementalvolumesisassumedtoexist,andthe investorsareexpectedtoreceiveatleasta10-percent

return on investment.In2004,crudeoilpricesaveraged$36perbarrel(seetextboxbelow),withpricesturningupwardthroughoutthe yearandwellinto2005.AlthoughOPECproduction quotas(excludingIraq)wereraisedfrom23.5millionbarrelsperdayinApril2004to28.0millionbarrelsperdayinJuly2005,worldoilpricesgenerallycontinuedto rise[1].InJune2005,crudeoilfuturespricesexceeded$60perbarrel,arecordhighpriceinnominaldollars[

2].Severalfactorshaveworkedtokeepworldcrudeoilpriceshighinthenearterm.First,worldpetroleum demandgrewatarobust3.4percent(2.7millionbarrels perday)in2004,reflectingdramaticincreasesinChinas demandforoil-generatedpowerandoil-basedtranspor

-tationfuels,aswellasareboundinU.S.oildemand.Sec

-ond,oilpricestypicallyaresensitivetoanyincrementaltighteningofsupplyduringperiodsofhigheconomic growth.Onthesupplyside,therewasverylittlespare upstreamcapacity,andthesparedownstreamcapacity wasnotalwaysproperlyconfiguredtoproducethe requiredslateofproducts.Worldoilinventories,in termsofdaysofsupply,wereunusuallylow.Next, geopoliticaltensionsinmajoroil-producingcountries includingthecontinuingthewarinIraqanduncertain prospectsforareturntonormalcyinIraqsoilsector andpotentialunrestinNigeriaandVenezuelacontrib-

uted to the volatility in world oil markets.Temperedbyhighworldoilprices,growthinworldpetroleumdemandin2005isexpectedtoremainstrong, whileretreatingsomewhatfromits2004pace.Any expectationofincrementalsupplytightnessinnon-OPECsupplyordownstreamrefinerycapacitycould causecrudeoilpricestoincreaseevenfurther.Asa result,therefineracquisitioncostofimportedcrudeoil in2005isexpectedtoaveragemorethan$47perbarrel.

OPECproducersmayfinditmorechallengingtomain

-tainhighoilpricesoverthenextfewyears,however, given the projected increase in non-OPEC supply.DespiteevidencethatOPECmembershaveachievedsomeoftheirpricegoalsinrecentyearsbyusinga price-bandstrategy,productioncutbackshavehistori

-callyhadonlylimitedsuccess.OPECsmarketmanage

-mentstrategieshaveoftenendedinfailure,anditssuccessesforthemostparthavebeentheresultoftight marketconditionsanddisciplinedparticipationby OPECmembers.Currently,spareproductioncapacity worldwidewiththeexceptionoftwoorthreePersian GulfmembersofOPECisnegligible,makingOPECs consensusbuildingeasier.Non-OPECproductionis expectedtoshowsignificantincreasesoverthenext5 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 25 World Oil Prices in IEO2005Worldoilpricesin IEO2005aredefinedonthebasisofaveragerefineracquisitioncostofimportedoilto theUnitedStates(IRAC).TheIRACpricetendstobea fewdollarslessthanthewidelycitedWestTexas Intermediate(WTI)spotprice.WTIisahigherqual

-ity,lighter,low-sulfurcrudethanthatrepresentedbyIRAC.Inrecentmonths,IRAChasbeenasmuchas6 dollarsabarrellowerthantheWTI

.In2004,WTIaveraged$41.44perbarrelandIRACaveraged$36.00

per barrel (in nominal dollars).

years,andanumberofOPECmembercountrieshaveannouncedplanstoexpandproductioncapacityinthe shortterm.Inanoilmarketenvironmentwithsubstan

-tialspareproductioncapacity,itwillbemoredifficultforOPECtoachieveagreementamongitsmembers; however,obstaclestoinvestmentinnewproduction capacityinsomeareaswithabundantresourcesmay keepthegrowthinsupplybelowitsexpectedpotential.AlthoughOPECsshareofworldoilsupplyisprojectedtoincreasesignificantlyoverthenexttwodecades,com

-petitiveforcesareexpectedtoremainstrongenoughtoforestalleffortstoescalaterealoilpricessignificantly.

CompetitiveforcesoperatewithinOPEC,between OPECandnon-OPECsourcesofsupply,andbetween conventionaloilandothersourcesofenergy(particu

-larly, nonconventional oil, natural gas, and coal).Non-OPECproducershavebeensomewhatslowinreactingtohigheroilprices;however,thereremains significantuntappedproductionpotentialworldwide, especiallyindeepwaterareas.Deepwaterexploration anddevelopmentinitiativesgenerallyareexpectedtobe sustainedworldwide,withtheoffshoreAtlanticBasin emergingasamajorfuturesourceofoilproductionin

both Latin America and Africa.Althoughthelagbetweenhigherpricesandincreasesindrillingactivityseemstohaveincreasedintheaftermath ofthelowpriceenvironmentof1998and1999,non-OPECproductionhasincreasedbymorethan3million barrelsperdayoverthepast3yearsandisexpectedto addanadditional0.7millionbarrelsperdayin2005.

Morethanone-halfoftheworldwideincreaseinnon-OPECproductionoverthenext2yearsisexpectedto comefromtheformerSovietUnion(FSU),andthe remainderisexpectedtocomemainlyfromtheemerg

-ingeconomiesoftheAtlanticBasin(LatinAmericaandWestAfrica).Technologyandresourceavailabilitycan sustainlargeincrementsinoilproductioncapabilityat

prices well below the current level.Incorporatingtherecentpriceturbulenceintothecon

-structionofanintermediate-andlong-termoilmarketoutlookisdifficultandraisesthefollowingquestions:

WillOPECmaintainitscutbackstrategyinordertokeep priceswithinacertainpriceband,orwilltheanticipated increaseinnon-OPECproductionexertdownward pressureonprices?WillChinaandotheremerging economiesofAsiabeabletosustainthecurrentrobust economicgrowthandacorrespondingincreaseintheir demandforoilinthelongterm?Willtechnologyguar

-anteethatoilsupplydevelopmentwillmoveforward even if a low world oil price environment returns?Theuncertaintiesassociatedwiththe IEO2005 referencecaseprojectionsaresignificant.ThewarinIraq,the internationalwaronterrorism,uncertaineconomic recoveryinemergingAsiaandJapan,thesuccessofChinaseconomicreformsanditspoliticalsituation,thepotentialforsocialunrestinVenezuelaandNigeria, BrazilsimpactonotherLatinAmericaneconomies,and uncertainprospectsforthepaceofeconomicrecoveryin theFSUallincreasetheriskofnear-termpoliticaland policydiscontinuitiesthatcouldleadtooilmarket behaviorquitedifferentfromthatportrayedinthe

projections.

World Oil DemandWorldoilconsumptionrosebyabout2.7millionbarrels perdayin2004,withthematuremarketeconomies accountingforonlyaboutone-fourthoftheincrease.

Demandintheemergingeconomiesrosebyalmost1.9 millionbarrelsperday,withChinaaccountingformore thanone-halfofthatincrease.Currentgrowthinthe emergingAsianeconomiesisbeginningtoshowsignsof areturntotherapideconomicexpansionoftheearly andmid-1990s.LatinAmericasoildemandcontinuesto growatamodestrate.IntheFSU,oildemandis expectedtoshowamodestincreasefor2004.In2005, globaloildemandisexpectedtogrowbyabout2.2mil-

lion barrels per day [

3].Inthe IEO2005referencecaseforecast,growthinworldoildemandaverages1.9percentperyearoverthefore-castperiod.Mostoftheworldsincrementaloildemand isprojectedforuseinthetransportationsector,where therearecurrentlynocompetitivealternativestopetro-leum;however,severalofthetechnologiesassociated withnonconventionalliquids(gastoliquids,coaltoliq-uids,andenergycropsthatcanbeusedtoproduceetha-nolandbiodiesel)couldreducethepressureon conventionaloilsupplyfromthetransportationsector.

Oftheprojectedincreaseinoiluseinthereferencecase overthe2002to2025period,61percentoccursinthe transportationsector(Figure28).Theindustrialsector alsoaccountsforafairlylargeshareoftheprojected increaseinworldoilconsumption:28percentofthe increaseisexpectedtobeforindustrialsectoruses, mostly for chemical and petrochemical processes.Onaregionalbasis,twopartsoftheworldaccountformostoftheprojectedgrowthinworldoildemand:

emergingAsiaandNorthAmerica(Figure29).Outside NorthAmerica,oilconsumptioninthematuremarket economyregionsgrowsmuchmoreslowlyby0.3per

-centperyearinbothWesternEuropeandmaturemar

-ketAsia,reflectingexpectationsofslowgrowthordeclinesinpopulationandeconomicgrowthoverthe

next two decades.Intheemergingeconomies,strongexpansionofoiluseisprojected,asrobusteconomicgrowthfuelsdemand foroiltofuelburgeoningindustrialsectorsandrapidly expandingtransportationuse.Thefastestgrowthinoil demandisprojectedfortheemergingAsianeconomies, atanaveragerateof3.5percentperyearoverthe 26 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 forecastperiod,andtheotheremergingeconomyregionsalsoareexpectedtoexperiencefast-paced increasesinoiluse.From2002to2025,consumptionof petroleumisprojectedtoincreaseonaverageby2.1per

-centperyearintheMiddleEast,2.5percentperyearinCentralandSouthAmerica,and2.7percentperyearin

Africa.EconomicdevelopmentinAsiawillbecrucialtolong-termgrowthinoilmarkets.China,India,andthe othernationsofemergingAsiaareexpectedtoexperi

-encecombinedeconomicgrowthof5.5percentperyearbetween2002and2025,thehighestrateofgrowthinthe world.Thisrobustexpansioningrossdomesticproduct (GDP)translatestoa3.5-percentannualincreasein regionaloiluse.TheprojectedevolutionofAsianoil demandinthereferencecasecouldstrengtheneconomic tiesbetweentheMiddleEastandAsia,asAsiannations

rely more and more on Middle East oil supplies.InthetransitionaleconomiesofEasternEuropeandtheFSU(EE/FSU),oilconsumptionincreasesonaverageby 1.4percentperyearinthereferencecaseforecast,from 5.5millionbarrelsperdayin2002to7.6millionbarrels perdayin2025.OiluseintheEE/FSUregiondropped precipitouslyafterthecollapseoftheSovietregimein theearly1990s,from10.0millionbarrelsperdayin1990 to5.3millionbarrelsperdayin1997,astheregionsGDP contractedbyalmostone-third.Growthinoildemandin theEE/FSUregionhasbeguntorecoverinrecentyears andby2002hadreached5.5millionbarrelsperday.PositiveeconomicgrowthreturnedtotheFSUin1999,whenhighworldoilpricesandadevaluedrublehelped Russia,theregionslargesteconomyandamajorworld oilexporter,poststrongeconomicgainsbyboostingper

-formanceinitsindustrialsectorsandincreasingcon

-sumerdemandfordomesticallyproducedgoods.Evenwiththerobusteconomicgrowth(anaverageof4.4per

-centperyear)projectedfortheregion,oildemandintheEE/FSUisnotexpectedtobeasstrongin2025asitwas

in 1990.World Oil PricesTheworldoilpriceintheInternationalEnergyOutlook 2005 (IEO2005)isdefinedastheannualaverageU.S.refineracquisitioncostofimportedcrudeoil.Threedis

-tinctworldoilpricescenariosarerepresentedin IEO2005,reaching$21,$35,and$48perbarrelin2025,respectively,inthelowworldoilprice,reference,and highworldoilpricecasesin2003dollars.Althoughthe

IEOtypicallyusesthesamereferencecaseasthe AnnualEnergyOutlook

, IEO2005hasadoptedtheOctoberfuturescasefromtheAnnualEnergyOutlook2005 (AEO2005)asitsreferencecasefortheUnitedStates.TheOctoberfuturescase,whichhasanassumptionofhigher worldoilpricesthaninthe AEO2005referencecase,now appears to be a more likely projection.

2InOctober2004,theNewYorkMercantileExchange (NYMEX)oilfuturespricesimpliedthattheannual averageoilpricein2005willexceedits2004levelbefore Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 27NorthAmericaEmergingAsiaWesternEuropeMatureMarketAsiaEE/FSUMiddleEastCentralandSouthAmericaAfrica010203040MillionBarrelsperDay 2002 2025 Figure 29. World Oil Consumption by Region and Country Group, 2002 and 2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergy Markets (2005).

78 95 103 111 11920022010201520202025 0 50 100 150MillionBarrelsperDay ResidentialCommercialIndustrialTransportation Figure 28. World Oil Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2002-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

2Fordetaileddescriptionsandcomparisonsofthe AEO2005reference,Octoberoilfutures,andotherworldoilpricecases,seeEnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),pp.40-50,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.Thereferencecasewillbereconsideredforthenext AEO.BasedoninformationavailableasofJuly2005,the AEO2006referencecasewilllikelyincorporateworldoilpriceshigherthanthoseinthe IEO2005referencecase.

fallingbacksomewhat.The AEO2005Octoberoilfuturescaseisbasedonanextrapolationofoilpriceslooselycor

-respondingtothemid-termprofileofpricesonthe NYMEX futures market in October 2004.Thelowworldoilpricecasereflectsafuturemarketwhereoilproductionbecomesmorecompetitiveand plentiful.Thereareseveralwaysinwhichthiscould comeabout.First,theOPECcountriescouldbecomeless cohesive,witheachproducerattemptingtosellasmuch ofitsproductioncapacityasthemarketwillallow.

Anotherpossibilitywouldbeadeclineinthecostsof non-OPECoilproductionortheviabledevelopmentof competitivealternatives.Toforestallthepenetrationof alternativesandothersourcesofcompetition,OPEC wouldbeexpectedtoloweritspricebandandincrease production.Thehighpricecase,incontrast,assumes thatworldoilpriceswillremainclosetocurrentlevels

for the foreseeable future.Althoughoilpricesrosebymorethan$9perbarreloverthecourseof2004andareexpectedtoaddanadditional

$7perbarrelin2005,suchdevelopmentsarenotindica-tiveofthelong-termtrendinthe IEO2005referencecase.Fromanticipatedhighlevelsthroughout2005,oilprices areexpectedtodeclinegraduallyto$31perbarrelin 2010,thenrisebyabout0.8percentperyearto$35in 2025(allpriceprojectionsin2003dollarsunlessother-

wise noted).Thenear-termpricetrajectoryinthe IEO2005 referencecaseisconsiderablydifferentfromthatinthe Interna-tionalEnergyOutlook2004 (IEO2004).Lastyearsrefer-encecasepricepathdidnotreflecttheupwardprice pressurein2004broughtaboutbytheconditionsthat haveledtomarkettightness.Inboththe IEO2004 and IEO2005referencecases,oilpricesrisegraduallyfromabout2010through2025.Thispricepathreflectstherec

-ognitionthatOPEChasbeenabletolimitproductionforthepurposeoffirminguppricesandthatcontinued robustprojectionsforoildemand,especiallyamongthe emergingeconomies,willtosomeextentmaintainpres

-sure on oil markets.Threealternativelong-termpricepathsareshowninFigure30.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,projectedpricesreach$35perbarrelin2025in2003dollars.Innominal dollars,thereferencecasepriceisexpectedtoapproach

$60perbarrelin2025.Inthelowpricecase,pricesare projectedtoreach$21perbarrelin2009andtoremainat aboutthatleveloutto2025.Inthehighpricecase,prices areprojectedtoreach$37perbarrelin2013andincrease steadilyto$48perbarrelin2025.Whilethethreecases showninFigure30varywidely,theydonotspanthefull

range of possible scenarios.Inallthe IEO2005oilpricecases,oildemandisexpectedtorisesignificantlyovertheprojectionperiod.Inthe highandlowworldoilpricecases,theprojectedincreasesinoilconsumptionfrom2002to2025are35millionbarrelsperdayand53millionbarrelsperday, respectively.Resourcesarenotexpectedtobeakeycon

-straintonworlddemandto2025.Rathermoreimportantarethepolitical,economic,andenvironmentalcircum

-stancesthatcouldshapedevelopmentsinoilsupplyand demand.Oilpriceshavebeenhighlyvolatileoverthepast25years,andperiodsofpricevolatilitycanbeexpectedin thefutureprincipallybecauseofunforeseenpolitical andeconomiccircumstances.Itiswellrecognizedthat tensionsintheMiddleEast,forexample,couldgiverise toseriousdisruptionsofnormaloilproductionandtrad

-ingpatterns.Ontheotherhand,marketforcescanplayasignificantroleinrestoringbalanceoveranextended period.Highrealpricesdeterconsumptionandencour

-agetheemergenceofsignificantcompetitionfromlargemarginalsourcesofoil,whichcurrentlyareuneconomi

-caltoproduce,andotherenergysupplies.Persistently low prices have the opposite effects.Limitstolong-termoilpriceescalationincludesubstitu-tionofotherfuels(suchasnaturalgas)foroil,marginal sourcesofconventionaloilthatbecomereserves(i.e.,

economicallyviable)whenpricesrise,andnonconven-tionalsourcesofoilthatbecomereservesatstillhigher prices.Advancesinexplorationandproductiontechnol-ogiesarelikelytobringpricesdownwhensuchaddi-tionaloilresourcesbecomepartofthereservebase.

Therearesomeoilmarketanalysts,however,whofind thisviewpointoverlyoptimistic,basedonwhatthey considertobeasignificantoverestimationofboth

proven reserves and ultimately recoverable resources.

28 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005197019801995200420152025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 702003DollarsperBarrelProjectionsHighOilPriceLowOilPriceReferenceHistory Figure 30. World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),AnnualEnergyReview2003,DOE/EIA-0384(2003)(Washing

-ton,DC,September2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/emeu/

aer/.Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005).Note:

IEO2005usesthe AEO2005Octoberoilfuturescaseasitsref

-erence case.

The Composition of World Oil SupplyAthree-stepapproachwasusedtodeterminethecom

-positionofworldoilsupplyinthethree IEO2005 oilpricecases.Thefirststepdeterminedwhethertheoil resourcebasewouldbesufficientlyrobusttomeet worldwidedemand.Thesecondstepdeterminedhow muchnon-OPECoil(bothconventionalandnonconven

-tional)couldbeproducedattheassumedpricepath.Animportantcriterioninthesecondstepwaswhetherpro

-ducerswouldreceiveanadequaterateofreturnontheirinvestment(usually10percent).Withtotalnon-OPEC supplyhavingbeenestablished,thethirdstepassumed thattheremainderoftheworldwidedemandwouldbe metbyOPECproducersanddeterminedanappropriate

production capacity for each OPEC producer.Itisimportanttonotewhatthissimplethree-stepapproachdidanddidnotassume.Abusiness-as-usual oilmarketenvironmentwasassumed.Disruptionsinoil supplyforanyreason(war,terror,weather,geopolitics) werenotassumed.Itwasassumedthatallnon-OPECoil projectsthatshowafavorablerateofreturnoninvest-mentwouldbefunded,andthatOPECwouldactasthe residualsupplierofoiltotheworld.Fortheforecast periodoutto2025,thereissufficientoiltomeetworld-widedemand.Peakingofworldoilproductionisnot

anticipated until after 2030.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,worldoilsupplyin2025isprojectedtoexceedthe2002levelbyalmost41million barrelsperday.Increasesinproductionareexpectedfor bothOPECandnon-OPECproducers;however,only about41percentofthetotalincreaseisexpectedtocome fromnon-OPECareas.Overthepasttwodecades,the growthinnon-OPECoilsupplyhasresultedinanOPEC marketsharesubstantiallyunderitshistorichighof 52percentin1973.Newexplorationandproduction technologies,aggressivecost-reductionprogramsby industry,andattractivefiscaltermstoproducersby governmentsallcontributetotheoutlookforcontinued

growth in non-OPEC oil production.Thereferencecaseprojectsthatabout59percentoftheincreaseinpetroleumdemandoverthenexttwo decadeswillbemetbyanincreaseinproductionby membersofOPECratherthanbynon-OPECsuppliers.

OPECproductionin2025isprojectedtobemorethan24 millionbarrelsperdayhigherthanitwasin2002(Figure 31).The IEO2005estimatesofOPECproductioncapacityin2010areslightlylessthanthoseprojectedin IEO2004 ,reflectingashifttowardnon-OPECsupplyprojectsin scenarioswithhigherprices.Someanalystssuggest thatOPECmembersmightpursuesignificantpriceesca

-lationthroughconservativecapacityexpansiondeci

-sionsratherthanundertakemajorproductionexpansionprograms.Suchbehaviorwouldtendtoraiseworldoil prices.Reserves and ResourcesTable4showsestimatesoftheconventionaloilresourcebasebyregionouttotheyear2025.Provedreservesare fromtheannualassessmentofworldwidereservespub

-lishedbyOil&GasJournal

[4].ReservegrowthandundiscoveredestimatesarebasedontheWorldPetro

-leumAssessment2000bytheU.S.GeologicalSurvey(USGS).Theoilresourcebaseisdefinedbythreecatego

-ries:remainingreserves(oilthathasbeendiscoveredbutnotproduced);reservegrowth(increasesinreserves resultingmainlyfromtechnologicalfactorsthatenhance afieldsrecoveryrate);andundiscovered(oilthat remainstobefoundthroughexploration).Theinforma

-tioninTable4isderivedfromtheUSGSmeanestimate,whichisanaverageassessmentoverawiderangeof uncertaintyforreservegrowthandundiscovered resources.The IEO2005oilproductionforecastisbased on the USGS mean estimate.

Expansion of OPEC Production CapacityItisgenerallyacknowledgedthatOPECmemberswithlargereservesandrelativelylowcostsforexpanding productioncapacitycanaccommodatesizableincreases inpetroleumdemand.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,theproductioncallonOPECsuppliersisprojectedto growatarobustannualrateof2.7percentthrough2025 (Table5andFigure32).OPECcapacityutilizationis expectedtoincreaseslightlyafter2002,reachingalmost 95percentby2015andremainingataboutthatlevelfor

the duration of the projection period.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 291970200220102025 0 25 50 75MillionBarrelsperDay OPECMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomies EmergingEconomies Figure 31. World Oil Production in the Reference Case by Region, 1970, 2002, 2010, and

2025 Sources:1970and2002:EnergyInformationAdministration (EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.

gov/iea/.2010and2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisof Global Energy Markets (2005).

Amidstenormousuncertainty,IraqsroleinOPECinthenextseveralyearswillbeofparticularinterest.In 1999,Iraqexpandeditsproductioncapacityto2.8mil

-lionbarrelsperdayinordertoreachtheslightlymorethan$5.2billioninoilexportsallowedbyUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilresolutions.Theexpansion wasrequiredbecauseofthelowpriceenvironmentof early1999.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,Iraqis 30 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Table 4. Estimated World Oil Resources, 1995-2025 (Billion Barrels)RegionProved ReservesReserve GrowthUndiscoveredTotal Mature Market EconomiesUnited States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.976.083.0180.9 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .178.812.532.6223.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.625.645.886.0 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.819.334.669.7 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.30.5 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . . .1.52.75.910.1 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . .77.8137.7170.8386.3 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.51.44.4 Emerging EconomiesChina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18.319.614.652.5 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.43.86.816.0 Other Emerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . .11.014.623.949.5 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .729.6252.5269.21,251.3 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.873.5124.7299.0 Central and South America. . . . . . .100.690.8125.3316.7Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,277.7730.2938.92,946.8OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .885.2395.6400.51,681.3Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .392.5334.6538.41,265.5 Note: Reserves include crude oil (including lease condensates) and natural gas plant liquids.

Sources:ProvedReservesasofJanuary1,2005:Oil&GasJournal,Vol.102,No.47(December20,2004),pp.22-23.

ReserveGrowth(Total)andUndiscovered:U.S.GeologicalSurvey,WorldPetroleumAssessment2000,websitehttp://greenwood.cr.

usgs.gov/energy/WorldEnergy/DDS-60.EstimatesofRegionalReserveGrowth:EnergyInformationAdministration, Interna-tional Energy Outlook 2002 , DOE/EIA-0484(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2002), p. 32.20022010201520202025 0 25 50 75MillionBarrelsperDayOPEC(Conventional)Non-OPEC(Conventional)Nonconventional Figure 32. OPEC, Non-OPEC, and Nonconventional Oil Production in the Reference Case, 2002 and 2010-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.

gov/iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

Table 5. OPEC Oil Production, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

Year Reference Case High Oil Price Low Oil Price History1990. . . . . . . . . . .24.6 2002. . . . . . . . . . .28.7 Projections2010. . . . . . . . . . .37.733.342.8 2015. . . . . . . . . . .41.333.049.3 2020. . . . . . . . . . .46.835.457.3 2025. . . . . . . . . . .52.737.965.2Note:Includestheproductionofcrudeoil,naturalgasplant liquids, refinery gain, and other liquid fuels.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.

gov/iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).Note:

IEO2005usesthe AEO2005 October oil futures case as its reference case.

assumedtomaintainitscurrentoilproductioncapacityofabout2.0millionbarrelsperdayinto2005.Iraqhas indicatedadesiretoexpanditsproductioncapacity aggressively,tomorethan6millionbarrelsperday, oncetheoilsectorisdeemedsafefromterroristactivi

-ties.Preliminarydiscussionsofexplorationprojectshavealreadybeenheldwithpotentialoutsideinvestors, includingFrance,Russia,andChina.Suchasignificant increaseinIraqioilexportswouldeasemarkettightness.GiventherequirementsforOPECproductioncapacityexpansionimpliedbythe IEO2005estimates,muchattentionhasbeenfocusedontheoildevelopment,pro

-duction,andoperatingcostsofindividualOPECpro

-ducers.WithPersianGulfproducersenjoyingareserve-to-productionratiothatexceeds108years,sub

-stantial capacity expansion clearly is feasible.ProductioncostsinPersianGulfOPECnationsarelessthan$3perbarrel,andthecapitalinvestmentrequired toincreaseproductioncapacityby1barrelperdayisless than$5,940[

5].Assumingthe IEO2005lowpricetrajec

-tory,totaldevelopmentandoperatingcostsovertheentireprojectionperiodwouldbeabout24percentof grossoilrevenues.Thus,PersianGulfOPECproducers canexpandcapacityatacostthatisarelativelysmall

percentage of projected gross revenues.ForOPECproducersoutsidethePersianGulf,thecosttoexpandproductioncapacityby1barrelperdayiscon-siderablygreater,exceeding$13,270insomemember nations;yetthoseproducerscanexpectcost-to-revenue ratiosofabout41percentoninvestmentstoexpandpro-ductioncapacityoverthelongterm,eveninthelow pricecase[

5].Venezuelahasthegreatestpotentialforcapacityexpansionandcouldaggressivelyincreaseits productioncapacitybymorethan1.0millionbarrelsper day,tobetween4and5millionbarrelsperdayinthe mid-term.Itisunclear,however,whetherthecurrent politicalclimatewillsupporttheoutsideinvestment requiredforanysubstantialexpansionofVenezuelas productioncapacity.TablesE1-E6inAppendixEshow therangesofproductionpotentialforbothOPECand

non-OPEC producers.ThereferencecaseprojectionimpliesaggressiveeffortsbyOPECmembernationstoapplyorattractinvestment capitaltoimplementawiderangeofproductioncapac

-ityexpansionprojects.Thecombinationofpotentialprofitabilityandthethreatofcompetitionfromnon-OPECsuppliersprovidesarationalefortheassumption

of a relatively aggressive expansion strategy.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,OPECmembersoutsidethePersianGulfareexpectedtoincreasetheirproduc

-tionpotentialsubstantially,despitetheirhighercapacityexpansioncosts.Thereismuchoptimismregarding Nigeriasoffshoreproductionpotential,althoughitisunlikelytobedevelopeduntilthemiddletolatepartofthisdecade.Inaddition,increasedoptimismaboutthe productionpotentialofAlgeria,Libya,andVenezuela supportsthepossibilityofreducingtheworldsdepend

-ence on Persian Gulf oil.

Non-OPEC SupplyThegrowthinnon-OPECoilsuppliesplayedasignifi

-cantroleintheerosionofOPECsmarketshareoverthepastthreedecades,asnon-OPECsupplybecame increasinglydiverse.NorthAmericadominatednon-OPECsupplyintheearly1970s,theNorthSeaandMex

-icoevolvedasmajorproducersinthe1980s,andmuchofthenewproductioninthe1990scamefromtheemerg

-ingeconomiesofLatinAmerica,WestAfrica,thenon-OPECMiddleEast,andChina.Inthe IEO2005 refer-encecase,non-OPECsupplyfromprovenreservesisexpectedtoincreasesteadily,from49.4millionbarrels perdayin2002to66.2millionbarrelsperdayin2025 (Table 6).Thereareseveralimportantdifferencesbetweenthe IEO2005productionprofilesandthosepublishedin IEO2004:*TheU.S.productiondeclinewassomewhatmoresevereinthe IEO2004projectionsthaninthisyearsforecast,with IEO2005projectinglowerexplorationandproductioncostscoupledwithmoreoptimistic findingratesintheNationalPetroleumReserve-

Alaska.*TheoutlookforgrowthinRussiasoilproductionisslightlymoreoptimisticin IEO2005asRussiancom

-paniesinalliancewithWesternservicecompaniescontinuetosurpriseindustryexpertswithproduc

-tivity increases in West Siberia.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 31 Table 6. Non-OPEC Oil Production, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

Year Reference Case High Oil Price Low Oil Price History1990. . . . . . . . . . .42.1 2002. . . . . . . . . . .49.4 Projections2010. . . . . . . . . . .56.659.655.0 2015. . . . . . . . . . .61.766.759.0 2020. . . . . . . . . . .63.970.760.5 2025. . . . . . . . . . .66.275.162.4Note:Includestheproductionofcrudeoil,naturalgasplant liquids, refinery gain, and other liquid fuels.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.

gov/iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).Note:

IEO2005usesthe AEO2005 October oil futures case as its reference case.

Theoutlookforproductionofnonconventionalliq

-uids(especiallyfromoilsandsandultra-heavyoils)issomewhatmoreoptimisticin IEO2005asproduc-tion costs decline and markets evolve.

Inthe IEO2005projections,Caspianoutputisexpectedtoexceed3.3millionbarrelsperdayin2010 andtoincreasesteadilythereafter.Therestill remainsagreatdealofuncertaintyaboutexport

routes from the Caspian Basin region.

In IEO2005,thedeclineinNorthSeaproductionisslowedslightly,basedontheimplementationofstrate

-giesforredevelopingmaturefields.ProductionfromNorway,WesternEuropeslargestproducer,isexpected topeakatabout3.6millionbarrelsperdayin2006and thendeclinegraduallytoabout2.5millionbarrelsper daybytheendoftheforecastperiodwiththematuring ofsomeofitslargerandolderfields.TheUnitedKing

-domsectorisexpectedtoproduceabout2.2millionbar

-relsperdayin2010,followedbyadeclineto1.4million barrels per day in 2025.Twonon-OPECPersianGulfproducersareexpectedtoincreaseoutputgraduallythrough2010.Enhanced recoverytechniquesareexpectedtoincreasecurrent outputinOmanbymorethan190,000barrelsperday, withonlyagradualproductiondeclineanticipatedafter 2010.CurrentoilproductioninYemenisexpectedto increasebyatleast50,000barrelsperdaywithinthenext 5years,andthoselevelscouldshowaslightincrease throughouttheprojectionperiod.Syriaisexpectedto holditsproductionflatoutto2015,butlittleintheway ofnewresourcepotentialwillallowanythingexcept

declining production volumes from 2015 to 2025.OilproducersinthePacificRimareexpectedtoincreasetheirproductionvolumessignificantlyasaresultof enhancedexplorationandextractiontechnologies.

Indiasdeepwaterprospectsareexpectedtoshowsome encouragingproductionincreasesinthisdecade,with thepotentialforsignificantincreasesneartheendofthe forecastperiod.DeepwaterfieldsoffshorefromthePhil

-ippineshaveresultedinanimprovedreservepicture,withproductionexpectedtoexceed75,000barrelsper daybytheendoftheforecastperiod.Vietnams long-termproductionpotentialstillisviewedwithcon

-siderableoptimism,althoughexplorationactivityhasbeenslowerthanoriginallyhoped.OutputfromViet

-namesefieldsisprojectedtoexceed375,000barrelsper day in 2015.Australiahascontinuedtomakeadditionstoitsprovedreserves,anditispossiblethatitsoilproductioncould exceed800,000barrelsperdaybytheendofthisdecade.

Malaysiashowslittlepotentialforanysignificantnew finds,anditsoutputisexpectedtopeakataround 750,000barrelsperdayinthisdecadeandthendeclinegraduallytolessthan700,000barrelsperdayin2025.PapuaNewGuineacontinuestoaddtoitsreservepos

-tureandisexpectedtoachieveproductionvolumesapproaching110,000barrelsperdaybytheendofthis decade,followedbyonlyamodestdeclineoverthe remainderoftheforecastperiod.Explorationand test-wellactivityhavepointedtosomeproduction potentialforBangladeshandMyanmar,butsignificant

output is not expected until after 2010.OilproducersinCentralandSouthAmericahavesignif

-icantpotentialforincreasingoutputoverthenextdecade.Brazilbecameamillionbarrelperdayproducer in1999,withconsiderableproductionpotentialwaiting tobetapped.Brazilsproductionisexpectedtorise throughouttheforecastperiodandtotop3.5million barrelsperdayin2025.Colombiascurrenteconomic downturnandcivilunresthavedelayeddevelopmentof itsupstreamsector,butitsoutputisexpectedtotop 610,000barrelsperdaywithinthedecadeandcontinue toshowmodestincreasesfortheremainderofthefore

-castperiod.InbothBrazilandColombia,theoilsectorwouldbenefitsignificantlyfromthecreationoffavor-ableclimatesforforeigninvestment.Argentinais expectedtoincreaseitsproductionvolumesbyatleast 65,000barrelsperdayoverthenext3years,andbythe endofthedecadeitcouldpossiblytobecomeamillion barrelperdayproducer.Althoughthecurrentpolitical situationinEcuadorisintransition,thereisstillopti-mismthatEcuadorwilldoubleproductionvolumes

over the forecast period.SeveralWestAfricanproducersAngola,Cameroon,Chad,Congo(Brazzaville),EquatorialGuinea,Gabon, Mauritania,Niger,SaoTomeandPrincipe,andIvory Coastareexpectedtoreapthebenefitsofsubstantial explorationactivity,especiallyifthecurrenthighprices persist.Angolaisexpectedtobecomeamillionbarrel perdayproducerbytheendofthisdecade.Giventhe excellentdeepwaterexplorationresults,Angolacould producevolumesofupto3.4millionbarrelsperdayin thelateryearsoftheforecast.TheotherWestAfrican producerswithoffshoretractsareexpectedtoincrease outputbyupto1.1millionbarrelsperdayforthedura

-tion of the forecast.NorthAfricanproducersEgyptandTunisiaproducemainlyfrommaturefieldsandshowlittlepromiseof addingtotheirreserveposture.Asaresult,theirpro

-ductionvolumesareexpectedtodeclinegraduallyovertheforecastperiod.InEastAfrica,Sudanisexpectedto producesignificantvolumesbytheendofthisdecade andcouldexceed500,000barrelsperdaybytheendof theforecastperiod.Eritrea,Somalia,andSouthAfrica alsohavesomeresourcepotential,buttheyarenot expectedtoproducesignificantvolumesuntillateinthe

forecast.32 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 InNorthAmerica,moderatelydecliningU.S.outputisexpectedtobesupplementedbysignificantproduction increasesinCanadaandMexico.Canadasconventional oiloutputisexpectedtocontractsteadily,byabout 600,000barrelsperdayoverthenext20years,butan additional3.5millionbarrelsperdayofnonconven

-tionaloutputfromoilsandsprojectsisexpectedtobeadded.ExpectedproductionvolumesinMexicoexceed 4.2millionbarrelsperdaybytheendofthedecadeand continuetoincreaseouttotheendoftheforecastperiod, by another 500,000 barrels per day.Withhigheroilpricesassumedtocontinue,oilproduc

-tionintheFSUisexpectedtoexceed15.0millionbarrelsperdayin2015,basedinlargepartonamoreoptimistic outlookforinvestmentinRussia.Thelong-termproduc

-tionpotentialfortheFSUstillisregardedwithconsider

-ableoptimism,especiallyfortheresource-richCaspianBasinregion.The IEO2005referencecaseshowsFSUoutputexceeding17.5millionbarrelsperdayin2025, implyingexportvolumesofmorethan12millionbarrels perday.InChina,oilproductionisexpectedtodecline slightlytoabout3.5millionbarrelsperdayin2025.

Chinahasvoicedaninterestinexpandingitsdomestic oilresourcebaseandperhapsdevelopingcoal-to-

liquids technologies.Theestimatesfornon-OPECproductionpotentialpre-sentedinthisoutlookarebasedonsuchparametersas numbersofexplorationwells,findingrates,reserve-to-productionratios,advancesinbothexplorationand extractiontechnologies,andsensitivitytochangesinthe worldoilprice.Acriticalcomponentoftheforecasting methodologyistheconstraintplacedontheexploration anddevelopmentofnon-OPECundiscoveredresources.

Forthepurposeofthethree IEO2005pricecases,nomorethan15,30,and45percentofthemeanUSGSesti

-mateofnon-OPECundiscoveredoilisdevelopedovertheforecastperiodinthelow,reference,andhighprice cases,respectively.Inallpricecases,OPECproducers areassumedtobethesourceoftherequiredresidual

supply.Theexpectationinthelate1980sandearly1990swasthatnon-OPECproductioninthelongertermwould stagnateordeclinegraduallyinresponsetoresource constraints.Therelativelyinsignificantcostofdevelop

-ingoilresourceswithinOPECcountries(especiallythoseinthePersianGulfregion)wasconsideredsuchan overwhelmingadvantagethatnon-OPECproduction potentialwasviewedwithconsiderablepessimism.In actuality,however,despiteseveralperiodsofrelatively lowprices,non-OPECproductionhasriseneveryyear since1993,addingmorethan6.9millionbarrelsperday

between 1993 and 2002.Itisexpectedthatnon-OPECproducerswillcontinuetoincreaseoutput,producinganadditional7.2millionbarrelsperdayin2010.Threefactorsgenerallyaregivencreditfortheimpressiveresiliencyofnon-OPECpro

-duction:developmentofnewexplorationandproduc

-tiontechnologies,effortsbytheoilindustrytoreducecosts,andeffortsbyproducergovernmentstopromote explorationanddevelopmentbyencouragingoutside

investors with attractive fiscal terms.

Worldwide Petroleum TradeIn2002,thematuremarketeconomiesimported16.6 millionbarrelsofoilperdayfromOPECproducers.

Ofthattotal,10.1millionbarrelsperdaycamefromthe PersianGulfregion.Oilmovementstomaturemarket economiesrepresented67percentofthetotalpetroleum exportedbyOPECmembernationsand60percentofall PersianGulfexports(Table7).Bytheendoftheforecast period,OPECexportstomaturemarketeconomiesin thereferencecaseareestimatedtobeabout10.3million barrelsperdayhigherthantheir2002level,andmore thanone-halfoftheincreaseisexpectedtocomefrom

the Persian Gulf region.Despitesuchasubstantialincrease,theshareoftotalpetroleumexportsthatgoestothematuremarketecon-omynationsin2025isprojectedtobealmost11percent-agepointsbelowtheir2002share,andtheshareof PersianGulfexportsgoingtothematuremarketecono-miesisprojectedtofallbyabout17percent.Thesignifi-cantshiftexpectedinthebalanceofOPECexportshares betweenthematuremarketeconomiesandemerging economiesisadirectresultoftheeconomicgrowth anticipatedfortheeconomicallydevelopingnationsof theworld,especiallythoseofAsia.OPECpetroleum exportstoemergingeconomiesareexpectedtoincrease by17millionbarrelsperdayovertheforecastperiod, withmorethan70percentoftheincreasegoingtothe emergingeconomiesofAsia.China,alone,islikelyto importabout7.3millionbarrelsperdayfromOPECin 2025,virtuallyallofwhichisexpectedtocomefromPer

-sian Gulf producers.NorthAmericaspetroleumimportsfromthePersianGulfinthereferencecaseareexpectedtomorethandou

-bleovertheforecastperiod(Figure33).Atthesametime,over46percentoftotalNorthAmericanimportsin 2025areexpectedtobefromAtlanticBasinproducers andrefiners,withsignificantincreasesanticipatedin crudeoilimportsfromLatinAmericanproducers, includingVenezuela,Brazil,Colombia,andMexico.

WestAfricanproducers,includingNigeriaandAngola, arealsoexpectedtoincreasetheirexportvolumesto NorthAmerica.CaribbeanBasinrefinersareexpectedto accountformostoftheincreaseinNorthAmericas

imports of refined products.WithamoderatedeclineinNorthSeaproduction,West

-ernEuropeisexpectedtoimportincreasingamounts Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 33 fromPersianGulfproducersandfromOPECmembernationsinbothnorthernandwesternAfrica.Substantial importsfromtheCaspianBasinarealsoexpected.

MaturemarketAsiannationsareexpectedtoincrease theiralreadyheavydependenceonPersianGulfoil.The emergingeconomiesofthePacificRimareexpectedto morethandoubletheirtotalpetroleumimportsbetween

2002 and 2025.Worldwidecrudeoildistillationcapacitywasabout82millionbarrelsperdayatthebeginningof2003.Tomeet theprojectedgrowthininternationaloildemandinthe referencecase,worldwiderefiningcapacitywouldhavetoincreasebymorethan45millionbarrelsperdayby2025.Substantialgrowthindistillationcapacityis expectedintheMiddleEast,CentralandSouthAmerica, andespeciallyintheAsiaPacificregion.Refinersin NorthAmericaandEurope,whilemakingonlymodest additionstotheirdistillationcapacity,areexpectedto continueimprovingproductqualityandenhancingthe usefulnessoftheheavierportionofthebarrelthrough investmentindownstreamcapacity.Likewise,future investmentsbyemergingeconomiesareexpectedto includemoreadvancedconfigurationsdesignedtomeet theanticipatedincreaseindemandforlighterproducts, especially transportation fuels.

34 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Table 7. Worldwide Petroleum Trade in the Reference Case, 2002 and 2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

Exporting Region Importing Region Total ExportsMature Market EconomiesEmerging Market Economies North America WesternEuropeAsiaTotal PacificRimChina Rest ofWorldTotal 2002 OPECPersian Gulf. . . . . . . . . . . . .2.82.94.4 10.13.20.92.56.616.7North Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . .0.62.10.0 2.70.10.00.00.12.8West Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . .1.10.50.1 1.70.50.00.10.62.3South America. . . . . . . . . . .1.70.10.1 1.90.10.00.30.42.3Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.2 0.20.40.00.00.40.6 Total OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . .6.25.64.816.64.30.92.98.124.7 Non-OPECNorth Sea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.64.50.0 5.10.00.00.00.05.1Caribbean Basin. . . . . . . . .0.60.10.0 0.70.10.00.10.20.9Former Soviet Union. . . . . .0.33.60.3 4.20.20.00.10.34.5Other Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . .5.53.61.2 10.33.01.35.710.020.3 Total Non-OPEC. . . . . . . .7.011.81.520.33.31.35.910.530.8 Total Petroleum Imports. . .13.217.46.336.97.62.28.818.655.5 2025 OPECPersian Gulf. . . . . . . . . . . . .5.84.55.1 15.48.76.44.920.035.4North Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . .0.53.10.1 3.70.80.30.51.65.3West Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . .1.61.10.3 3.01.80.50.22.55.5South America. . . . . . . . . . .3.90.10.4 4.40.10.00.40.54.9Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.00.3 0.40.60.10.20.91.3 Total OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . .11.98.86.226.912.07.36.225.552.4 Non-OPECNorth Sea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.53.40.0 3.90.30.00.20.54.4Caribbean Basin. . . . . . . . .1.40.50.2 2.10.60.00.81.43.5Former Soviet Union. . . . . .0.53.30.6 4.40.73.11.55.39.7Other Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . .6.82.90.4 10.13.10.32.55.916.0 Total Non-OPEC. . . . . . . .9.210.11.220.54.73.45.013.133.6 Total Petroleum Imports. . .21.118.97.447.416.710.711.238.686.0 Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),EnergyMarketsandContingencyInformationDivision.

2025:EIA,Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, IEO2005 WORLD Model run IEO2005.B25 (2005).

References Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 351.OrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries, various press releases, web site www.opec.org.2.M.Piotrowski,NymexCrudeClosesAbove$60/bblonIranianConcerns,OilDaily,Vol.55, No. 23 (June 28, 2005), p. 3.3.EnergyInformationAdministration, Short-TermEnergyOutlook,July2005on-lineversion,website www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html.4.WorldwideLookatReservesandProduction, Oil&GasJournal,Vol.102,No.47(December20,2004), pp. 22-23.5.DRI/McGraw-Hill,OilMarketOutlook (Lexington, MA, July 1995), Table 1, p. 10.2002202520022025 0 10 20 30 40MillionBarrelsperDayMatureMarketEconomiesEmergingEconomiesNorthAmericaOtherEmergingAsiaOther Figure 33. Imports of Persian Gulf Oil by Importing Region, 2002 and 2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast.

Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002

and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies.Naturalgasisprojectedtobethefastestgrowingcompo

-nentofworldprimaryenergyconsumptioninthe Inter-nationalEnergyOutlook2005 (IEO2005)referencecase.Consumptionofnaturalgasworldwideincreasesinthe forecastbyanaverageof2.3percentannuallyfrom2002 to2025,comparedwithprojectedannualgrowthratesof 1.9percentforoilconsumptionand2.0percentforcoal consumption.From2002to2025,consumptionofnatu

-ralgasisprojectedtoincreasebyalmost70percent,from92trillioncubicfeetto156trillioncubicfeet(Figure34),

anditsshareoftotalenergyconsumptiononaBtubasis isprojectedtogrowfrom23percentto25percent.The electricpowersectoraccountsforalmostone-halfofthe totalincrementalgrowthinworldwidenaturalgas

demand over the forecast period.Onaregionalbasis,thelargestincreasesinnaturalgasconsumptionworldwideareprojectedforthetransi-tionaleconomiesofEasternEuropeandtheformer SovietUnion(EE/FSU)andforemergingAsia(Figures 35and36).NaturalgasuseintheEE/FSUexpandsby63 percentovertheprojectionperiod;andinemerging Asia,gasuseisexpectedtonearlytriplefrom2002to 2025.Inthematuremarketeconomies,wherenatural gasmarketsaremoreestablished,consumptionofnaturalgasisprojectedtoincreasebyamoremodestannualaverageof1.6percentfrom2002to2025,withthe largestincrementalgrowthinthematuremarket economiesprojectedforNorthAmerica,at11trillion

cubic feet.Theemergingeconomiesarealsoexpectedtoshowthestrongestgrowthinnaturalgasproduction,withapro

-jectedaverageincreaseof4.1percentperyearfrom2002to2025inthereferencecase(Figure37).Incontrast,nat

-uralgasproductioninthetransitionaleconomiesispro

-jectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof2.3percent,andproductioninthematuremarketeconomiesis expectedtoincreasebyanaverageofonly0.6percent

per year from 2002 to 2025.Thedisparitybetweentheincreaseprojectedfornaturalgasconsumptioninthematuremarketeconomiesand themuchsmallerincreaseprojectedfortheirgaspro-ductionpointstoanincreasingdependenceonthetran-sitionalandemergingmarketeconomiesforgas supplies(Figure38).In2002,thematuremarketecono-miesaccountedfor42percentoftheworldstotalnatu-ralgasproductionand50percentoftheworldsnatural gasconsumption;in2025,theyareprojectedtoaccount Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 37 53 73 92 111 128 142 1561980199020022010201520202025 0 50 100 150 200TrillionCubicFeetHistoryProjections Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).1980199020022010201520202025 0 20 40 60 80 100TrillionCubicFeetMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomies EmergingEconomiesHistoryProjections Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

foronly29percentofproductionand43percentofcon

-sumption.Asaresult,thematuremarketeconomiesareexpectedtorelyonimportsofnaturalgasfromother partsoftheworldtomeetalmostone-thirdoftheirnatu

-ralgasconsumptionin2025,upfrom15percentin2002.

Reserves and ResourcesAsofJanuary1,2005,provedworldnaturalgasreserves,asreportedbyOil&GasJournal

, 3wereesti-matedat6,040trillioncubicfeet36trillioncubicfeet(lessthan1percent)lowerthantheestimatefor2004[

1].Ingeneral,worldnaturalgasreserveshavetrended

upward since the mid-1970s (Figure 39).ThelargestrevisiontonaturalgasreserveestimateswasmadeinAustralia.TheAustraliangovernmentreported atwo-thirdscutinitsestimateofnaturalgasreserves between2004and2005,from90trillioncubicfeetto29 trillioncubicfeet.Higherreserveestimateswere recordedfortheemergingeconomies,mostlyinAfrica andtheMiddleEast.Nigeriaaloneaccountedformost oftheincrementinAfrica,withagainof17trillioncubic feet(11percent),andLibyareportedasmallerincrease of6trillioncubicfeet(12percent).IntheMiddleEast, SaudiArabiaincreaseditsestimateofreservesby4tril

-lioncubicfeet(2percent),accountingforalloftheregionsadditiontoreserves.Elsewhere,nationalesti

-matesofnaturalgasreserveschangedlittleoverthe 1-year period.Almostthree-quartersoftheworldsnaturalgasreservesarelocatedintheMiddleEastandinthetransi-tionaleconomiesoftheEE/FSU(Figure40).Russia, Iran,andQatarcombinedaccountforabout58percent oftheworldsnaturalgasreserves(Table8).Reservesin 38 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005EE/FSUEmergingAsiaNorthAmericaMiddleEastWesternEuropeCentralandSouthAmericaAfricaMatureMarketAsia05101520TrillionCubicFeet Figure 36. Increases in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country Group, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMar-kets (2005).20022010201520202025 0 20 40 60 80TrillionCubicFeetMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomies EmergingMarketEconomies Figure 37. Natural Gas Production by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).20022010201520202025 0 20 40 60 80 100TrillionCubicFeetDomesticProductionEE/FSUImports EmergingEconomiesImports Figure 38. Natural Gas Consumption in Mature Market Economies by Source, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

3ProvedReserves,asreportedbytheOil&GasJournal,areestimatedquantitiesthatcanberecoveredunderpresenttechnologyandprices.FiguresreportedforCanadaandtheformerSovietUnion,however,includereservesintheprobablecategory.Naturalgasreserves reportedbytheOil&GasJournalarecompiledfromvoluntarysurveyresponsesanddonotalwaysreflectthemostrecentchanges.Signifi

-cantnaturalgasdiscoveriesmadeduring2004arenotlikelytobereflectedinthereportedreserves.

therestoftheworldarefairlyevenlydistributedona regional basis.Despitehighratesofincreaseinnaturalgasconsump

-tion,particularlyoverthepastdecade,mostregionalreserves-to-productionratioshaveremainedhigh.

Worldwide,thereserves-to-productionratioisesti

-matedat66.7years[

2].CentralandSouthAmericahasareserves-to-productionratioof55.0years,theFSU 77.4years,andAfrica96.9years.TheMiddleEasts

reserves-to-production ratio exceeds 100 years.TheU.S.GeologicalSurvey(USGS)periodicallyassessesthelong-termproductionpotentialofworldwidepetro

-leumresources(oil,naturalgas,andnaturalgasliquids).AccordingtothemostrecentUSGSestimates,released intheWorldPetroleumAssessment2000,asignificantvol

-umeofnaturalgasremainstobediscovered.Themeanestimateforworldwideundiscoverednaturalgasis 4,301trillioncubicfeet(Figure41),whichisapproxi

-matelydoubletheworldwidecumulativeconsumptionforecastfrom2002to2025in IEO2005.Ofthetotalnatu

-ralgasresourcebase,anestimated3,000trillioncubicfeetisinstrandedreserves,usuallylocatedtoofar awayfrompipelineinfrastructureorpopulationcenters tomaketransportationofthenaturalgaseconomical.Of thenewnaturalgasresourcesexpectedtobeaddedover thenext25years,reservegrowthaccountsfor2,347tril

-lioncubicfeet.Morethanone-halfofthemeanundis

-coverednaturalgasestimateisexpectedtocomefromtheFSU,theMiddleEast,andNorthAfrica;andabout one-fourth(1,065trillioncubicfeet)isexpectedtocome fromacombinationofNorth,Central,andSouth

America.Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 39 Table 8. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2005 Country Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet)

Percent of World TotalWorld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6,040100.0Top 20 Countries. . . . . . . .5,39189.3Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,68027.8 Iran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94015.6 Qatar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91015.1 Saudi Arabia. . . . . . . . . . .2353.9 United Arab Emirates. . . .2123.5 United States. . . . . . . . . . .1893.1 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1762.9 Algeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1612.7 Venezuela. . . . . . . . . . . . .1512.5 Iraq. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1101.8 Indonesia. . . . . . . . . . . . . .901.5 Malaysia. . . . . . . . . . . . . .290.5 Norway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .751.2 Turkmenistan. . . . . . . . . .741.2 Uzbekistan. . . . . . . . . . . .711.2 Kazakhstan. . . . . . . . . . . .661.1 Netherlands. . . . . . . . . . . .651.1 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .621.0 Egypt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .570.9 Ukraine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .400.7Rest of World. . . . . . . . . . .64910.7Source:WorldwideLookatReservesandProduction,Oil&GasJournal,Vol.102,No.47(December20,2004),pp.22-23.MiddleEastEE/FSUAfricaEmergingAsiaNorthAmericaCentralandSouthAmericaWesternEuropeMatureMarketAsia01,0002,0003,000TrillionCubicFeetWorldTotal:6,040TrillionCubicFeet Figure 40. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region as of January 1, 2005Source:WorldwideLookatReservesandProduction,Oil&GasJournal,Vol.102,No.47(December20,2004),pp.22-23.1975198019851990199520002005 01,0002,000 3,0004,0005,000 6,0007,000TrillionCubicFeetMatureMarketEconomiesTotalTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomies Figure 39. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region, 1975-2005 Sources: 1975-1993:WorldwideOilandGasataGlance,InternationalPetroleumEncyclopedia(Tulsa,OK:PennWellPublishing,variousissues).

1994-2004:Oil&GasJournal (various issues).

Regional Forecasts North AmericaNorthAmericasnaturalgasproduction 4isexpectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof0.5percentbetween 2002and2025inthe IEO2005forecast,whereasitsgasconsumption(Figure42)isexpectedtogrowby1.5percentperyear.In2002,mostofthenaturalgascon

-sumedinNorthAmericawasproducedwithintheregion(Figure43).In2015,however,NorthAmericais projectedtoconsume5.7trillioncubicfeetmorethanit produces,andin2025thegapbetweenNorthAmericas naturalgasproductionandconsumptionisprojectedto be8.0trillioncubicfeet,illustratingtheregionsgrowing

dependence on imports.Currently,CanadasuppliesthebulkofU.S.importsofnaturalgas,theUnitedStatessuppliesmostofMexicos importneeds,andlessthan1percentofNorthAmer

-icasnaturalgasdemandin2002wasmetbyimportsfromoutsidetheregion(Figure43).Importsfromother regionsareallintheformofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG) intotheUnitedStatesthroughoneoffiveexistingLNG regasificationfacilities.Fourareonshoreterminalsthat werebuiltmorethan20yearsago,locatedinEverett, Massachusetts,CovePoint,Maryland,ElbaIsland, Georgia,andLakeCharles,Louisiana.Thefifthisthe GulfGatewayEnergyBridge,locatedintheoffshore GulfofMexico.ItisthefirstnewU.S.LNGterminaltobe constructedinmorethan20years,anditreceivedits

first cargo on March 17, 2005.LNGimportsareexpectedtoincreasesubstantiallyandplayaprominentroleinthefuture,withLNGimports intotheUnitedStatessurpassingpipelineimportsfrom Canadaby2015.AlthoughMexicoisexpectedtoremain anetimporterfromtheUnitedStates,LNGimportsare expectedtobeginreducingMexicosdependenceonthe

United States in 2007.

40 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 000 2,347 6,040 4,301ProvenReservesUndiscoveredNaturalGasReserveGrowth 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000TrillionCubicFeetFormerSovietUnionMiddleEast NorthAmericaAfricaAsia Central/SouthAmericaOther Figure 41. World Natural Gas Resources by Region, 2005-2025Source:U.S.GeologicalSurvey,WorldPetroleumAssess-ment2000,websitehttp://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/WorldEnergy/DDS-60;WorldwideLookatReservesandPro-

duction,Oil&GasJournal,Vol.102,No.47(December20,2004),pp.22-23;andEnergyInformationAdministrationesti-

mates.19901995200020022010201520202025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60TrillionCubicFeetUnitedStates Canada MexicoHistoryProjections Figure 42. Natural Gas Consumption in North America by Country, 1990-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).20022010201520202025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60TrillionCubicFeetProductionImports Figure 43. Natural Gas Supply in North America by Source, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

4U.S.domesticproductiondoesnotincludeproductionfromanyareasthatcurrentlyareofflimitsforoilandgasdrillingorproductionfrommethanehydrates.

NewLNGregasificationfacilitiesareexpectedtobeginoperatinginMexico,theUnitedStates,andCanada between2005and2010.After2010,theregionsimport capacitycontinuestoexpandthroughouttheremainder oftheforecastperiod.Morethan50proposalstobuild newregasificationfacilitiesinNorthAmericahavebeen putforth,andprojectsinallthreecountrieshavealready receivedatleastsomeoftheneededregulatoryapprov

-als.Ifalltheproposedfacilitieswereconstructed,theywouldaddmorethan20trillioncubicfeettotheregions importcapacity,equivalenttoalmost75percentofthe naturalgasconsumedinNorthAmericain2002;how

-ever,the IEO2005referencecasedoesnotassumethatalltheproposedfacilitieswillbebuilt.Still,thelevelof activityisaclearindicationthatLNGispoisedtoplaya muchgreaterroleinNorthAmericangasmarketsinthe

future.AccordingtoEIAsAnnualEnergyOutlook2005 (AEO-2005),theshareoftotalU.S.naturalgasconsumptionmetbynetimportsofLNGisexpectedtogrowfrom about1percentin2002to15percent(4.3trillioncubic feet)in2015and21percent(6.4trillioncubicfeet)in 2025.LNGterminalsareexpectedtobebuiltrelatively earlyintheforecast,withnewterminalsreceivingsup-pliesontheGulfCoastandintheBahamasby2010.A newterminalinBajaCalifornia,Mexico,isprojectedto beginoperationin2007toserveNorthernMexicoand SouthernCalifornia,withadditionalcapacityinBaja Californiaaddedafter2020.AlthoughnewU.S.termi-nalsareprojectedtobeconstructedalongtheEastCoast after2015,theGulfCoastisexpectedtobetheprimary

location for new LNG import capacity.MostoftheprojectednewU.S.LNGcapacityislocatedintheGulfofMexicobecauseofthelocalesmany advantages.Thereissparecapacityintheexistingpipe

-lineinfrastructuretomovenaturalgastomarket,anddeepwaterportsareavailabletoserveonshorefacilities.

Inaddition,offshorepipelinesystemsareinplaceto movenaturalgastoshorefromoffshorefacilities.The extensivepipelinegridprovidesareadyabilitytoblend gasesofvaryingheatcontentandthus,handlehigh-Btu LNG.Finally,thelocalenvironmentappearstobefavor

-ableforthepermittingofnewfacilities.ImportsintonewGulfCoastterminalsareexpectedtoaccountfor morethan70percentofimportsintonewU.S.LNGter

-minals in 2025.CanadaistheonlyNorthAmericancountrythatcur

-rentlyproducesmorenaturalgasthanitconsumes,anditsdomesticproductionisprojectedtocontinueto exceeditsconsumptionthrough2025.MostofCanadas naturalgasproductioncurrentlycomesfromtheWest

-ernSedimentaryBasin.Althoughconventionalproduc

-tioninthebasinisinsteadydecline,thedecreasesareexpectedtobemorethanoffsetbyincreasesinunconventionalproductioninwesternCanada,conven

-tionalproductionintheMacKenzieDeltaandEasternCanada,andLNGimports.Supplyisalsoexpectedtobe supplementedbynaturalgasfromtheMacKenzieDelta.

ApipelinetobringnaturalgasfromtheMacKenzie Deltatomarketisexpectedtoopenin2010.Inspiteof thesesupplyadditions,pipelineimportsfromCanada areexpectedtodeclinetowardtheendoftheforecast becauseofstronggrowthinCanadasinternalneedfor

natural gas.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,Canadasnaturalgaspro

-ductionisprojectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof0.1percent.Whereasin2002,productionexceededcon

-sumptioninCanadaby3.6trillioncubicfeet,excesspro

-ductionavailableforexporttotheUnitedStatesisexpectedtodropto2.5trillioncubicfeetin2015andto

2.1 trillion cubic feet in 2025.InMexico,naturalgasconsumptionisexpectedtofaroutstripproduction.Mexicosdemandfornaturalgasis projectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof3.0per

-centbetween2002and2025,whileproductiongrowsatarateofonly1.7percentannually.Mostofthegrowthin consumptionisexpectedtofuelelectricitygeneration.

Althoughconsumptionintheresidentialandcommer-cialsectorscombinedaccountedforlessthan3percent ofthecountrystotalnaturalgasusein2002,pipeline infrastructuretoserveresidentialandcommercialusers isexpectedtocontinuegrowing,allowingtheirnatural

gas consumption to increase tenfold from 2002 to 2025.Mexicosdependenceonnaturalgasimports,likethatoftheUnitedStates,isprojectedtoincrease.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,importsareexpectedtogrowfrom13 percentofMexicostotalnaturalgasconsumptionin 2002to37percentin2025.TheMexicangovernmentis attemptingtoattractforeigncapitaltohelpindevelop

-ingthecountrysownabundantresourcesandsupport

-ingproductionincreases,buttodatelittleincreasehasbeenseen,anditappearsthatLNGwillbethebiggest contributortoadditionalsupplyinthenearterm.In additiontoimportfacilitiesinBajaCalifornia,Mexico, thatwillservebothMexicanandU.S.markets,anLNG facilityisunderconstructionatAltamiraonMexicos GulfCoast,andtwofacilitiescurrentlyareundercon

-siderationonthePacificCoast,primarilytoservethe Mexican market.

Western EuropeNaturalgasisexpectedtobethefastestgrowingfuelsourceinWesternEurope,withdemandprojectedto growatanannualaveragerateof1.8percent,from15.0 trillioncubicfeetin2002to22.4trillioncubicfeetin2025.

Morethan60percentofincrementalgasconsumptionin WesternEuropebetween2002and2025isexpectedtobe usedforelectricpowergeneration.Naturalgasisthe Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 41 fuelofchoicefornewelectricitygenerationcapacityinWesternEurope,wheremanynationsarelookingto replaceoil-andcoal-firedplantsthataremorecarbon intensivethannaturalgas.Inaddition,naturalgasis expectedtoremainmorecostcompetitivethanrenew

-ableenergysources,andcountriessuchasGermanyandBelgiumhavegovernmentpoliciesthatdiscouragethe expansionofnuclearpowercapacityandmayresultin theretirementofexistingnuclearpowerplantsoverthe

forecast period.NaturalgasconsumptionforelectricitygenerationinWesternEuropeisprojectedtoincreaseonaverageby 3.6percentperyearfrom2002to2025,surpassingthe useofcoalandrenewablesforelectricitygeneration(on aBtubasis)by2015andtheuseofnuclearpowerby 2025.Theshareoftotalelectricitysectorenergydemand metbynaturalgasisprojectedtoincreasefrom14per

-centin2002to23percentin2015and28percentin2025.WiththenotableexceptionofNorway,naturalgaspro

-ductionisindeclineinmostareasofWesternEurope.Inthemid-termfuture,productionfromNorwayis expectedtostaveoffadeclineintheregionsoverallpro-duction;however,totalnaturalgasproductioninWest-ernEuropeisstillfarfromkeepingpacewithdemand (Figure44).WesternEuropereceivednetimportsof4.9 trillioncubicfeetofnaturalgasin2002,accountingfor one-thirdoftotalgasconsumption.Theregionsreliance onimportedgasisprojectedtogrowtomorethan40 percentofdemandin2015andmorethan50percentin 2025.Currentlythereare10LNGregasificationtermi-nalsoperatinginWesternEurope,andLNGreceiving capacityisbeingexpandedaggressively.Morethan20newfacilitieshavebeenproposed,including4thatareunderconstruction.Egypt,anewadditiontothelistof LNGsupplierstotheworldaswellastoEurope,sentits

first-ever LNG cargo to Spain in March 2005.

Mature Market AsiaInJapan,naturalgasshowsthelargestincrementalgrowthindemandamongprimaryenergysourcesover theforecastperiod.Japansnaturalgasconsumptionis projectedtoincreaseatanaverageannualrateof1.5per

-cent,from2.7trillioncubicfeetin2002to3.8trillioncubicfeetin2025.Naturalgasuseintheindustrialsector isprojectedtogrowby3.4percentperyearonaverage from2002to2025,andtoclaimanincreasingshareofthe countrystotalgasconsumption.Electricitygeneration remainsbyfarthelargestusefornaturalgasinJapan, however,despiteanexpecteddeclineinitsshareofthe

total, from 71 percent in 2002 to 67 percent in 2025.InAustraliaandNewZealand,theindustrialsectorcur

-rentlyisthepredominantuserofnaturalgas,anditisprojectedtoaccountformorethanone-halfofallgas consumptioninAustraliaandNewZealandthroughout theforecastperiod.Naturalgasisalsothefastestgrow-ingfuelintheregionselectricitysector.Naturalgascon-sumptionasapercentageoftotalenergyuseinthe electricpowersectorisprojectedtogrowfrom11per-centin2002tonearly13percentin2025,butthiswill haveonlyamodestimpactontheelectricpowersector fuelmix,whichisdominatedbycoal.Evenin2025,coal isexpectedtoaccountforalmost73percentofenergy consumptioninAustraliaandNewZealandselectric

power sector on a Btu basis.

Transitional EconomiesIntheEE/FSUcountries,naturalgasconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorisexpectedtosurpassconsump

-tionintheindustrialsectorby2010,andtoaccountfor44percentand43percentoftotalgasconsumptionin2025 intheFSUandEasternEurope,respectively.Totalnatu

-ralgasdemandintheEE/FSUregionisprojectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof2.2percentfrom2002 to2025(Figure45).InbothEasternEuropeandtheFSU, theelectricpowersectorisexpectedtoaccountfor nearly60percentofthetotalincrementinnaturalgas

use over the forecast period.TheFSU,whichholdsaround30percentoftheworldsnaturalgasreserves,ismuchmoredependentonnatu

-ralgasforitsenergysupplythanisEasternEurope(51percentoftotalenergyconsumptionintheFSUwassup

-pliedbynaturalgasin2002,comparedwith23percentinEasternEurope).NaturalgasproductionintheFSUis projectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateofjustover 2percentfrom2002to2025,andexportsareprojected toincreasetoaroundone-quarteroftotalgasproduction in2025from19percentin2002.DespitetheRussian 42 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 200520022010201520202025 0 5 10 15 20 25TrillionCubicFeetProductionImports Figure 44. Natural Gas Consumption in Western Europe by Source, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

governmentsrecentdismantlingoftheoilgiantYukos,foreigncompaniesespeciallyWesternEuropeancom

-panieshaveincreasinglybeenpursuinginvestmentsinRussiasupstreamgassector.Gazprom,themajority state-ownedRussiangascompany,currentlyhasaspate ofsuitorsfromwhichtochooseitspartnersinthedevel

-opment of the giant Shtokmanovskoye field [

3].Emerging AsiaInChina,naturalgasiscurrentlyaminorfuelintheoverallenergymix,representingonly3percentoftotal primaryenergyconsumptionin2002;however,Chinais rapidlyexpandinginfrastructuretofacilitatethecon

-sumptionofgasthroughoutthecountryaswellasimportsofgasintothecountry.Overallnaturalgascon

-sumptioninChinaisprojectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof7.8percent,from1.2trillioncubicfeetin 2002to6.5trillioncubicfeetin2025(Figure46).Only nuclearpowergenerationisprojectedtogrowmorerap

-idly,ata9.9-percentaverageannualrateoverthefore

-cast period.NaturalgasconsumptioninChinasresidentialsector,projectedtomorethandoublefrom2002to2010, receivedaboostwiththestartofcommercialoperation oftheWest-EastpipelineinDecember2004.Mostofthe earlynaturalgascomingoffthepipelinehasbeengoing toresidentialconsumersandtheremaindertoindustrial consumers[

4].Thepipelineisfarfromfullutilization,becauseseveralnatural-gas-firedelectricpowerplants, whichultimatelyaretobethemainconsumersof

West-East gas, are not yet complete and operational.Inthelongterm,theelectricpowersectoristhemainsourceofprojectedgrowthinChinasnaturalgasdemand,accountingforfullytwo-thirdsofthetotalincrementinChinasnaturalgasconsumptionfrom 2002to2025.In2002,naturalgasconsumptioninthe electricpowersectorwas0.2trillioncubicfeet,account

-ingforonly1percentofthecountrystotalelectricitygeneration.In2010,naturalgasconsumptionintheelec

-tricitysectorisprojectedtosurpassconsumptionintheindustrialandresidentialsectors,andin2025itispro

-jectedtosurpasstheircombinedconsumption,account

-ingformorethanone-halfofChinastotalnaturalgas use.InIndia,asinChina,naturalgasiscurrentlyaminorfuelintheoverallenergymix,representingonly6.5percent oftotalprimaryenergyconsumption.AlsolikeChina, Indiaisrapidlyexpandinginfrastructuretofacilitate consumptionandimportsofgas.Overall,Indiasgas consumptionisprojectedtogrowatanaverageannual rateof5.1percent,from0.9trillioncubicfeetin2002to 2.8trillioncubicfeetin2025.Theelectricpowersectoris projectedtoaccountfor71percentofthetotalincremen

-talgrowthinIndiasnaturalgasdemandfrom2002to 2025.TotalnaturalgasconsumptioninSouthKoreaispro-jectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof3.7percent from2002to2025.In2002,theresidentialsectorwasthe countryspredominantconsumerofnaturalgas, accountingfor37percentofthetotal,andtheelectric powersectorwasaclosesecond,accountingfor34per-centoftotalgasuse.Intheforecast,naturalgasusein SouthKoreasindustrialsectorincreasesonaverageby 7.0percentperyearfrom2002to2025,comparedwith averageannualgrowthof1.7percentinboththeresi

-dentialandelectricpowersectors.In2015,morenatural Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 431990199520022010201520202025 0 10 20 30 40 50TrillionCubicFeetFormerSovietUnionEasternEuropeHistoryProjections Figure 45. Natural Gas Consumption in Transitional Economies, 1990-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).1990199520022010201520202025 0 5 10 15 20 25TrillionCubicFeetChinaIndiaSouthKorea OtherAsiaHistoryProjections Figure 46. Natural Gas Consumption in Emerging Asia, 1990-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

gasconsumptionisexpectedinthecountrysindustrialsectorthaninitsresidentialorelectricpowersector.In 2025,industrialnaturalgasuseisprojectedtoaccount formorethan40percentofallthenaturalgasconsumed

in South Korea.Highworldoilprices,beginningin1999,providedtheimpetusforthestronggrowthingasuseinSouth Koreasindustrialsector,anditispartiallyatthe expenseofoilconsumptionthatnaturalgasisexpected togrowinthissector.OnaBtubasis,theshareoftotal industrialconsumptionattributabletonaturalgasis projectedtogrowfromjust5percentin2002toalmost16 percentin2025,andtheshareattributabletooilis expectedtoshrinkfrom58percentin2002tojustunder

50 percent in 2025.IntheothercountriesofemergingAsia,totalnaturalgasconsumptionisprojectedtogrowatanaverageannual rateof2.9percentfrom2002to2025.Naturalgascon

-sumptionin2002andthroughouttheforecastperiodisfairlyevenlysplitbetweentheindustrialandelectricity sectors,witheachaccountingformorethan40percentof totalgasconsumption.Penetrationofgasintotheresi-dential,commercial,andtransportationsectorsispro-jectedtoremainlowwiththethreesectorscombined continuingtoaccountforlessthan10percentoftotalgas consumptionintheothercountriesofemergingAsia throughouttheforecastperiod.Naturalgasinfrastruc-tureacrosstheregionisfragmented,withlimitedinfra-structureoutsideproducingareas,andextensive advanceswillbeneededtomeetgrowingdemandinthe

long term.

Middle EastNaturalgasconsumptionintheMiddleEastisprojectedtodoublebetween2002and2025(Figure47).Theoverall shareofnaturalgasintheMiddleEastsfuelconsump

-tionmixincreasesovertheforecastperiodattheexpenseofoil,althoughoilwillremaintheregionspredominant fuelsource.TheshareoftotalMiddleEastenergy demandmetbynaturalgasisprojectedtoincreasefrom 39percentin2002to45percentin2025,whiletheshare oftotalenergydemandmetbyoilisprojectedtodecline

from 53 percent to 48 percent.NaturalgasisprojectedtoretainitsdominantpositionintheMiddleEastspowersector,with1.9-percentaver

-ageannualgrowthovertheforecastperiod.Intheindus

-trialsector,however,naturalgasuseisprojectedtogrowby4.0percentperyear,accountingformorethan two-thirdsoftheoverallincrementalgrowthingas demandintheregionfrom2002to2025.Thenaturalgas shareoftotalenergyconsumedintheregionsindustrial sectorisprojectedtogrowfrom46percentin2002to59 percentin2025,andoilisexpectedtoloseshareinthe sector(from41percentofindustrialenergyconsump

-tion in 2002 to just under 30 percent in 2025).Oil-exportingcountriesintheregionhavedeliberatelysoughttoexpanddomesticgasuseinordertomake moreoilavailableforexport.Manygas-richcountriesin theregionarealsodevelopingprojectstomonetizetheir naturalgasresources,inparticularthroughLNGand, morerecently,gastoliquids(GTL)projects(seeboxon page46).Qatarhassecuredseveralhigh-profiledeals that,whenrealized,willeventuallyboostitstotalLNG exportsto77millionmetrictonsperyear.Onesuchdeal isfortheconstructionofwhatwillbethetwolargestliq

-uefactiontrainsintheworld,at7.8millionmetrictons per year each.

AfricaNaturalgasconsumptioninAfricaisprojectedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof4.0percentfrom2002to2025 (Figure48),comparedwithaverageyearlygrowthrates of2.7percentforoiland1.6percentforcoal.Gascon

-sumptionisexpectedtosurpasscoalconsumptionby2025,withoilremainingthedominantfuelthroughout theprojectionperiod.IncrementalgrowthinAfricas gasdemandfrom2002to2025isprojectedtobefairly evenacrosssectors,withtheindustrial,residential,and electricsectorseachaccountingforaroundone-thirdof totalgrowth.Significantflaringofassociatedgasisstill commoninAfricabecauseoftheremotenessofmuchof theproductionandalackofinfrastructuretouseallthe associatedgasproduced.Despitecontinuinginstability insomecountriesoftheregion,theinvestmentclimate inAfricaappearstobewelcomingtoforeigners,with massiveinvestmentsplannedforEgypt,Libya,Algeria, Nigeria, and other parts of West Africa.

44 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 20051990199520022010201520202025 0 5 10 15 20TrillionCubicFeetHistoryProjections Figure 47. Natural Gas Consumption in the Middle East, 1990-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

Central and South AmericaNaturalgasisexpectedtobethefastestgrowingfuelsourceinCentralandSouthAmerica,withdemandpro

-jectedtoincreaseonaverageby3.3percentperyear,from3.6trillioncubicfeetin2002to7.5trillioncubicfeet in2025(Figure49).By2010,naturalgasisexpectedto overtakeoilasthesecondmostprevalentfuelforelec

-tricitygenerationintheregion,withrenewablespar

-ticularly,hydropowerretainingtheirdominantshare in the sector throughout the forecast period.Theinvestmentclimatefornaturalgasproductionpro

-jectsinCentralandSouthAmericahasbeenlessthanideal.AlthoughVenezuelaappearstobemorewelcom

-ingtoforeigninvestmentinitsnaturalgassectorthanitsoilsector,negotiations,especiallyontheMariscalSucre project,continuewithnofinaldecisionstaken[

5].InBolivia,twosuccessivepresidentswereforcedtoresign bystreetprotestsoverthehandlingofthenationsnatu

-ralgasresources.(GonzaloSanchezdeLozadoresignedinOctober2003,andCarlosMesaresignedinJune2005.)

Protestorshavecalledforincreasedgovernment involvementinthenaturalgassector,includingpossiblenationalizationoftheindustry.Ontheotherhand,Brazilisproceedingwithnaturalgasexplorationand hopestobecomeself-reliantinthegassectorinthe future.Majorinvestmentsinthenaturalgassectorare

underway in Trinidad and Tobago and in Peru.

References Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 451990199520022010201520202025 0 5 10 15 20TrillionCubicFeetHistoryProjections Figure 48. Natural Gas Consumption in Africa, 1990-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).1990199520022010201520202025 0 5 10 15 20TrillionCubicFeetHistoryProjections Figure 49. Natural Gas Consumption in Central and South America, 1990-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).1.WorldwideLookatReservesandProduction, Oil&GasJournal,Vol.102,No.47(December20,2004), pp. 22-23.

2.BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2005 (London, UK, June 2005), p. 20.3.Russia,CedigazNewsReport,Vol.44,No.9(March4, 2005),p. 5.4.FACTSInc.,NaturalGasPipelinesandLNGTer

-minalsinChina:AnUpdate,GasInsights,No.46 (March 2005), p. 4.5.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,Venezuela:ChevronAnnouncesSignificantGasDiscovery inDeltanaPlatform,websitewww.

worldmarketsanalysis.com (June 21, 2005).

46 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Gas to Liquids: A New Frontier for Natural GasTherelativelyhighworldcrudeoilpricesofthepast3yearshavedrawnattentiontothepotentialfordevel

-opingpreviouslyuneconomicalnaturalgasreserves,suchasassociatedgas(gasfoundjointlywithoilinan oilfield)orstrandedgas(gasthatliesfarfrommarkets, thusrequiringmajorinvestmentstocommercialize).

Convertingtheseresourcestoliquidseithertolique

-fiednaturalgas(LNG)ortopetroleumliquidsubsti

-tutes,suchasdiesel,naphtha,motorgasoline,orotherproducts(suchaslubricantsandwaxes)byemploying gastoliquids(GTL)technologycouldprovidea waytobringthesegasresourcestomarket.GTLhas recentlybecomeattractiveasanoptionformonetizing strandedgasandcomplementingtraditionalcommer

-cializationopportunitiessuchasLNGorpipeline transportation.TheeconomicsofGTLcontinuetoimprovewithadvancesintechnologyandscale.Capitalcostshave droppedsignificantly,frommorethan$100,000per barreloftotalinstalledcapacityfortheoriginalplants toarangeof$25,000to$30,000perbarrelofcapacity

today.aMoreover,Royal/DutchShellhascommentedthatitexpectstobeabletoreducethecoststobelow

$20,000perbarrel.Bycomparison,thecostsassociated withconventionalpetroleumrefiningarearound

$15,000perbarrelperstreamdayafterseveraldecades oftechnologyimprovements.Thehighoilpricesof recentyears,moreover,havemadetransportation fuelsproducedthroughGTLtechnologymorecom-merciallyviable.Fewcompaniesreleasethedetailed costsoftheirGTLconversiontechnologies,butaccord

-ingtoConocoPhillips,assumingthatthecostofnaturalgasis$1.00permillionBtu,GTLfueliscostcompetitivewithdieselfuelatworldoilpricesabove

$20 per barrel (see table below).AmongthedifferentGTLproducts,thedieselfraction,inparticular,ishighlyvaluedinthedownstreammar

-ketbecauseofitsuniquepropertiesthatmeetenviron

-mentalregulationsaimedattighteningemissionsstandardsforlight-andheavy-dutydieselvehicles.

TheGTLfuelreducesemissionsrelativetoconven

-tionaldiesel,asitcontainsnear-zerosulfurandaromatics.GTLfuelalsoexhibitsahighcetanenumber thatenhancesenginecombustionperformance.

bBecausetheyarecompatiblewithexistingvehicle enginesandfueldistributioninfrastructures,GTL fuelsarethemostcost-effectiveinreducingemissions

among the nonconventional fuels.Atpresent,worldwidethereareatleast9commercialGTLprojectsatvariousstagesofplanninganddevel

-opmentfortheperiod2009to2012thatcouldbringtomarketanadditionalcapacityof580thousandbarrels perday(seefigure).Morethan19additionalproposed projectscoulddoublethatcapacitybeyond2012.

c (continued on page 47) aPersonalcorrespondencewithSylviaWilliams,BusinessDevelopmentManager,GlobalGTLDevelopment,ShellInternationalGas Limited (May 3, 2005).

b ACTED Consultants, Gas to Liquids, Chemicals Australia Web Site, http://www.chemlink.com.au/gtl.htm (1999).

c FACTS Inc., Gas Databook I: Asia-Pacific Natural Gas & LNG (Honolulu, HI, 2005), p. 87.

Cost to Produce a Barrel of Diesel Fuel:

Grass Roots Gas to Liquids Plant vs. Refinery (2002 Dollars per Barrel)Cost ComponentGTLRefinery Natural Gas(at $1.00 per Million Btu). . . .$10.00 Crude Oil(at $20 per Barrel)$20.00Operating Costs. . . . . . . . .$ 4.00$ 2.50 Capital Recovery, Taxes. . .$14.00$ 6.50Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$28.00$29.00Source:M.Culligan,ConocoPhillips,DirectorofBusinessDevelopment-QatarGTLProject,GTL:NewTechnologyfor aNewIndustry,presentationattheFifthDohaGasConfer

-ence (March 1, 2005).

394 120 34 33 15QatarIranNigeriaAlgeriaMalaysia 0 100 200 300 400 500ThousandBarrelsperDayCurrentPotential Current and Potential Gas to Liquids Capacity, 2005-2012Note:Inaddition,a45,000-barrel-per-dayGTLplantinSouthAfricasMosselBayhasbeenswitchedtemporarily

from processing coal to liquids to processing gas to liquids

.Sources:InterviewwithAbdullahBinHamadAl-Attiyah,QatarMinisterofEnergyandIndustry,attheCenterforStra

-tegicandInternationalStudiesinWashington,DC(May9,2005).DatafromFACTSInc.,GasDatabookI(Honolulu,HI,2005),p.87;andAlgeriaInternatrionalTenderforFirst Gas-to-LiquidsProject,CedigazNewsReport,Vol.44,No.

15 (April 15, 2005), p. 4.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 47 Gas to Liquids: A New Frontier for Natural Gas (Continued)Theseprojectsarebeinginitiatedbycompaniesoperat

-ingingas-richcountriessuchasQatar,Iran,Russia,Nigeria,Australia,andAlgeria,wherenaturalgascan bedevelopedatacostoflessthan$1.00permillion

Btu.dQatarsNorthField,withanestimated900tril

-lioncubicfeetofnaturalgasreserves,andtheadjoin

-ingSouthParsfieldinIranwithanestimated500trillioncubicfeetofreserves,arethecheapestnatural gasresourcesintheworld.

eForothercountries,suchasNigeriaandAlgeria,GTLcomplementstheirLNG industries.GTLofferspromiseforuseinNigeriato convertnaturalgasthatwouldotherwisebeflared.

HugecapitalinvestmentsarerequiredforGTL,how

-ever,andprojectfinancingandtheavailabilityofquali

-fiedcontractorsandoperatorsmaylimitthegrowthof GTL projects on a year-to-year basis.

fSixofthenineconfirmedGTLprojectsarelocatedin thestateofQatarasjointventuresbasedonaninte

-grateddevelopmentandproductionsharingagree

-ment(DPSA)withmajorinternationaloilcompanies.

Foreigncompanieshavefavoredthisapproach,becauseitgivesthemanopportunitytobookpartof thegasreservesontheirbalancesheetandsupport theirupstreamanddownstreamactivities.

gBy2011,Qatarissettoproduceabout394,000barrelsofGTL productsperday,theequivalentof68percentofthe totalconfirmednewcapacity.

hAlistofQatarsGTL ventures is shown in the table below.Unlikemanyothergas-producingcountries,Qatarhasestablishedafavorableclimateintermsoftransparentbusinessandinvestmentpolicies.ForeigninvestorshavealsobeenencouragedtoinvestinQatarsenergy sectorbecauseofitsstabletaxregulations,enforcement offormalagreements,andthegovernmentswilling

-nesstoprotectforeigninvestorsthroughitslegislature.Inadditiontothestablepoliticalclimate,Qatarhas investedsubstantiallytodevelopinfrastructureand servicestosupportdevelopmentofitsnaturalgas resources.Thecountryalsoprovidesguaranteesfor thesafetyofforeignemployeesandthepotentialfor futuredevelopmentthroughexpansionofexisting

facilities.

iInthesecondquarterof2005,MoodysInves

-torServiceupgradedQatarsratingforlong-termfor

-eign currency bonds and bank bonds from A3 to A1.

jQatarhasbeenabletoreachagreementswithagroupoffinancialinstitutionstofundtheirgas-relatedpro

-jects(whichexceed$60billion)andhasdevelopedamasterplantoexpanditsportanddoublethesizeof RasLaffanIndustrialcityfrom39squaremilesto77 squaremiles,inordertoaccommodate7GTLprojects, 16LNGtrains,5gasprocessingplants,6to7ethylene plants,andavarietyofothergas-relatedindustries.By 2012,Qatarmustproducenearly25billioncubicfeetof naturalgasperdaytosupportitscommitments.Some 10.3billioncubicfeetperdaywillbeneededtopro-duce77millionsmetrictonsofLNGperyear;4billion cubicfeetperdayforthe394,000barrelsperdayof GTL;about5billioncubicfeetperdayforpetrochemi-cal,localpower,andindustrialprojects;andabout (continued on page 48) dEnergyInformationAdministration,ModelDocumentation:NaturalGasTransmissionandDistributionModule,DOE/EIA-M062(Wash

-ington, DC, May 2005), Appendix F-27.

e FACTS Inc., Irans Gas Industry and Export Projects, Gas Insights , No. 45 (March 2005).

fM.Culligan,ConocoPhillips,DirectorofBusinessDevelopment-QatarGTLProject,GTL:NewTechnologyforaNewIndustry,pre

-sentation at the Fifth Doha Gas Conference (March 1, 2005).

gWorldMarketsResearchCentre,ShellHoldsBackonFIDforQatarGTL,websitewww.worldmarketsanalysis.com(January20, 2005).h FACTS Inc., Gas Databook I (Honolulu, HI, 2005), p. 87.

iKeynotespeechbyAbdullabinHamadAl-Attiyah,QatarMinisterofEnergyandIndustry,attheFifthDohaGasConference(Febru

-ary 28, 2005).

jThird Annual Finance, Investment in Qatar Set To Open in London, Gulf Times (Qatar)(May 24, 2005).

GTL Joint Venture Projects in Qatar (2002 Dollars per Barrel)

Project Initial Capacity(Barrels per Day)Start Date Final Capacity (Barrels per Day)Oryx (QP/Sasol Chevron). . .34,0002005100,000 Pearl (Shell). . . . . . . . . . . . .70,0002009140,000 ExxonMobil. . . . . . . . . . . . . .154,0002011154,000 QP/Sasol Chevron. . . . . . . .130,000Delayed130,000 Marathon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60,000Delayed120,000 ConocoPhillips. . . . . . . . . . .80,000Delayed160,000Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .528,000804,000 Source: Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), March 2005.

48 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Gas to Liquids: A New Frontier for Natural Gas (Continued)2billioncubicfeetperdayforexportsthroughtheDol

-phinpipeline.Overa25-yearperiod(thedurationofalong-termLNGorGTLcontract),Qatarwouldneedto produce225trillioncubicfeet,orone-fourthofits NorthFieldreserve.

kAlthoughthe900trillioncubicfeetofnaturalgasreservesfromtheNorthFieldshould besufficienttosupporttheseprojectsonasustainable basis,thequalityofthegasandcostofdevelopment willvaryfromprojecttoproject.Asaresult,there

could be delays in some of the plans.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,worlddemandforoilinthetransportationsectorisprojectedtogrowby2.1percentperyear,from41.7millionbarrelsperdayin2002to67.3millionbarrelsperdayin2025.Evenifall theproposedGTLprojectsworldwidematerializedby 2025,assuminga70-percentyieldfordieselfuelfrom thenaturalgasstock,theexpectedGTLdieselsupply of1.2millionbarrelsperdayin2025wouldrepresent onlyafractionoftotalworldtransportationsector demand.Nevertheless,GTLdieselprojectsdoprovide gas-producingcompanieswithanopportunitytoadd newvalue-addedactivitiestotheirportfolios,aswell asprovidinggovernmentswithaneffectiveapproach

to meeting policy and environmental objectives.

kQatar Seeks New Math From North Field, World Gas Intelligence (June 1, 2005), pp. 2-3.

Coal Although coal use is expected to be displaced by natural gas in some parts of the world, only a slight drop in its share of total energy consumption is projected by 2025.

Coal continues to dominate electricity and industrial sector fuel markets in emerging Asia.IntheInternationalEnergyOutlook2005 (IEO2005)refer-encecase,worldcoalconsumptionisprojectedtoincreasefrom5,262millionshorttons 5in2002to7,245milliontonsin2015,atanaveragerateof2.5percentper year.From2015to2025,theprojectedrateofincreasein worldcoalconsumptionslowsto1.3percentannually, andtotalconsumptionin2025isprojectedat8,226mil

-liontons(Figure50).WorldGDPandprimaryenergyconsumptionalsoareprojectedtogrowatamorerapid paceduringthefirsthalfthanduringthesecondhalfof theforecastperiod,reflectingagradualslowdownin growthoftheeconomiesofemergingAsia,whichcur

-rently are expanding at a rapid pace.Coalconsumptionin2002primarilyintheelectricpowerandindustrialsectorsaccountedfor24percent oftotalworldenergyconsumption(Figure51).Ofthe coalproducedworldwide,65percentwasshippedto electricityproducers,31percenttoindustrialconsum-ers,andmostoftheremaining4percenttocoalconsum-ersintheresidentialandcommercialsectors.Inthe industrialsectorcoalisanimportantinputforthemanu-factureofsteelandfortheproductionofsteamanddirectheatforotherindustrialapplications.Coalplaysalimitedroleintheresidentialandcommercialsectors, andalthoughitwasonceanimportantfuelfortranspor

-tation,itsusefortransportationisnowvirtually nonexistent.Coalsshareofworldenergyconsumptionintheelec

-tricityandindustrialsectorsisprojectedtoremainrela

-tivelystableinthe IEO2005forecast.Asaconsequence,itsshareoftotalworldenergyconsumptionremains nearits2002shareof24percent.Intheelectricitysector, coalsshareofenergyconsumptionisprojectedto declineslightly,from39percentin2002to38percentin 2025.Intheindustrialsector,itsshareisprojectedtorise from20percentin2002to22percentin2015andto

remain at that level through 2025.Toalargeextent,theslightincreaseintheimportanceofcoalintheindustrialsectorresultsfromthesubstantial growthprojectedforindustrialenergyconsumptionin China,whichhasabundantcoalreserves,limited reservesofoilandnaturalgas,andadominantposition inworldsteelproduction.Coalisexpectedtoremainthe Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 49197019801990200220152025 0 2 4

6 8 10BillionShortTonsHistoryProjectionsMatureMarketEconomiesEmergingEconomiesTotalTransitionalEconomies Figure 50. World Coal Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

39 20 4 24 39 22 3 25 38 22 3 24ElectricityIndustrialOtherSectorsTotal 0 20 40 60 80 100Percent 2002 2015 2025 Figure 51. Coal Share of World Energy Consumption by Sector, 2002, 2015, and 2025 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdminis

-tration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.2015and2025:EIA,Systemforthe Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

5Throughoutthischapter,tonsreferstoshorttons(2,000pounds).

fuelofchoiceinChinasrapidlyexpandingindustrialsector.IntheIEO2005referencecaseforecast,thecoal shareofChinasindustrialenergyconsumption increasesfrom50percentin2002to55percentin2025.In therestoftheworld,coalsshareofindustrialenergy consumptionisprojectedtodeclinefrom15percentin

2002 to 13 percent in 2025.Internationalcoaltradeisprojectedtoincreasefrom714milliontonsin2003to969milliontonsin2025,account

-ingforapproximately12to13percentoftotalworldcoalconsumptionovertheperiod.Steamcoal(includingcoal forpulverizedcoalinjectionatblastfurnaces)accounts formostoftheprojectedincreaseinworldcoaltrade.

Detailsofrecentchangesininternationalcoalmarkets andanassessmentofthelong-termoutlookforworld

coal trade are provided at the end of this chapter.

ReservesTotalrecoverablereservesofcoal 6aroundtheworldareestimatedat1,001billiontonsenoughtolastapproxi

-mately190years 7atcurrentconsumptionlevels(Figure52).Historically,estimatesofworldrecoverablecoal reserves,althoughrelativelystable,havedeclinedgrad-uallyfrom1,167billiontonsatthebeginningof1990to 1,083billiontonsin2000and1,001billiontonsin2003

[1].ThemostrecentassessmentofworldcoalreservesincludesasubstantialdownwardadjustmentforGer-many,from73billiontonsofrecoverablecoalreservesto 7billiontons.Thereassessmentprimarilyreflectsmorerestrictivecriteriaforthedepthandthicknessparame

-tersassociatedwithbothundergroundandsurface minable seams of coal [

2].Althoughcoaldepositsarewidelydistributed,57per

-centoftheworldsrecoverablereservesarelocatedinthreecountries:theUnitedStates(27percent),Russia(17 percent),andChina(13percent).Anothersixcoun

-triesIndia,Australia,SouthAfrica,Ukraine,Kazakh

-stan,andYugoslaviaaccountforanadditional33percent.In2002,theseninecountries,takentogether, accountedfor90percentoftheworldsestimatedrecov

-erablecoalreservesand78percentoftotalworldcoalproduction[

3].Byrank,bituminousandanthracitecoalaccountfor53percentoftheworldsestimatedrecover

-ablecoalreserves(onatonnagebasis),subbituminouscoalaccountsfor30percent,andligniteaccountsfor17

percent.Qualityandgeologicalcharacteristicsofcoaldepositsareimportantparametersforcoalreserves.Coalisahet

-erogeneoussourceofenergy,withquality(e.g.,characteristicssuchasheat,sulfur,andashcontent) varyingsignificantlyfromoneregiontothenextand evenwithinanindividualcoalseam.Atthetopendof thequalityspectrumarepremium-gradebituminous coalsthatareusedtomanufacturecokeforthe steelmakingprocess.Cokingcoalsproducedinthe UnitedStateshaveanestimatedheatcontentof27.4mil-lionBtupertonandarelativelylowsulfurcontentof approximately0.8percentbyweight[

4].Attheotherendofthespectrumarereservesoflow-Btuligniteor browncoal.OnaBtubasis,lignitereservesshowcon

-siderablevariation.EstimatespublishedbytheInterna

-tionalEnergyAgencyindicatethattheaverageheatcontentofligniteformajorproducingcountriesvaries fromalowof4.6millionBtupertoninGreecetoahigh

of 12.3 million Btu per ton in Canada in 2002 [

5].ApotentialnewentrantasaproducerofligniteisPaki

-stan,whereinteresthasbeensparkedbytheidentifica

-tionofahugeligniteresourceintheTharparkar(Thar)Desertinthe1990s.TheTharcoalfieldcoversanareaof approximately3,500squaremilesandisestimatedto contain193billiontonsofligniteresources[

6].FourtracksoftheTharcoalfieldcurrentlyundergoingmore detailedassessment,comprisinganareaofabout138 squaremiles,areestimatedtocontain3billiontonsof recoverablecoalreserves.Thisrepresents89percentof Pakistanstotalrecoverablereserves,aspublishedby theWorldEnergyCouncil[

7].AnalysesofTharligniteindicatearelativelyhighheatcontent,between9.4and 12.7millionBtuperton[

8].ThePakistangovernmentcurrentlyisworkingwithtwointernationalcompanies, 50 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005UnitedStatesRussiaChinaIndiaAustraliaSouthAfricaUkraineKazakhstanYugoslaviaOtherCountries050100150200250300BillionShortTonsBituminousandAnthraciteSubbituminousLigniteWorldTotal:1,001BillionShortTons Figure 52. World Recoverable Coal ReservesNote:DatafortheUnitedStatesrepresentrecoverablecoalestimatesasofJanuary1,2004.Dataforothercountriesare

as of January 1, 2003.Source:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2003,DOE/EIA-0219(2003)(Washington,DC, June 2005), Table 8.2, web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

6Recoverablereservesarethosequantitiesofcoalwhichgeologicalandengineeringinformationindicateswithreasonablecertaintycanbeextractedinthefutureunderexistingeconomicandoperatingconditions.

7Assumingthatworldcoalconsumptioncontinuestoincreaseatthesamerateasisprojectedfortheyears2015through2025(1.3percentperyear),currentestimatedworldcoalreserveswouldlastforonlyabout90years.

theShenhuaGroupandAESCorporation,towardthedevelopmentofseveralminemouthpowerplantsinthe

Thar coalfield [

9].Regional Demand Forecasts Mature Market EconomiesCoalconsumptioninthematuremarketeconomiesisprojectedtoriseatarelativelyevenpaceoverthefore

-casthorizon,from2,067milliontonsin2002to2,261mil

-liontonsin2015and2,474milliontonsin2025(Figure53).Muchofthe407-million-tonincreaseincoalcon

-sumptionprojectedforthematuremarketeconomiesovertheforecastperiodistheresultofexpectedstrong growthinU.S.coaldemand.Whilemodestincreasesin coalconsumptionareprojectedforCanadaandAustra

-lia/NewZealand,coalconsumptioninWesternEuropeisprojectedtodeclineby114milliontonsbetween2002 and2025.InWesternEurope,naturalgasandrenewable energyareprojectedtocaptureanincreasingshareof theregionstotalenergyconsumption,displacingboth

coal and nuclear energy.

North AmericaCoaluseinNorthAmericaisdominatedbyU.S.con-sumption.In2002,theUnitedStatesconsumed1,066 milliontons,accountingfor93percentoftheregional total.U.S.consumptionisprojectedtoriseto1,505mil-liontonsin2025.TheUnitedStateshassubstantialcoal reservesandhascometorelyheavilyoncoalforelectric-itygeneration,atrendthatcontinuesintheforecast.

CoalsshareoftotalU.S.electricitygenerationispro-jectedtodeclineslightlyfrom52percentin2002to51 percentin2015andthenreturnto53percentin2025[

10].Toalargeextent,theprojectionsofincreasingpricesfornaturalgasafter2010,combinedwithprojectionsofrela

-tivelystableminemouthcoalpricesandslightlydeclin

-ingratesfordomestictransportationofcoal,arethekeyfactorshelpingcoalcompeteasafuelforU.S.power generation.Increasesincoal-firedgenerationarepro

-jectedtoresultfrombothgreaterutilizationofexistingU.S.coal-firedgeneratingcapacityandanadditional 89,500megawattsofnewcoal-firedcapacityby2025 (3,600megawattsofoldercoal-firedcapacityispro

-jectedtoberetired).Theaverageutilizationrateofcoal-firedgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtorisefrom70

percent in 2002 to 83 percent in 2025.InCanada,coalsshareoftotalenergyconsumptionisprojectedtodeclineslightlyovertheforecastperiod, from13percentin2002to12percentin2025.Inthenear term,therestartoffourofCanadasnucleargenerating unitsafter2002isexpectedtorestraintheneedforcoal ineasternCanada.BetweenSeptember2003andJanu

-ary2004,threeofthefourunits,representing2,000megawattsofgeneratingcapacity,werereturnedtoser

-viceUnit4attheOntarioPowerGeneration(OPG)PickeringAplantandUnits3and4atBrucePowers BruceAplant[

11].OPGs500-megawattUnit1atthePickeringAplantisscheduledtocomebackonlinein

late 2005.In2004,coal-firedgenerationaccountedfor17percentofOntarioselectricitysupply,downfrom23percentin 2003,anditssharecoulddeclinefurtherinthefuture

[12].TheOntariogovernmentcurrentlyplanstoshutdownalloftheProvinces7,560megawattsofcoal-fired generatingcapacitybyearly2009,althoughthegovern

-menthasindicatedthattheshutdownswillnotoccurunlessgenerationfromalternativesourcescanbe secured[13].Thedecisionisbasedprimarilyonthepremisethattheadversehealthandenvironmental impactsoftheplantsoperationareunacceptable.In westernCanada,increasingdemandforelectricityis expectedtoresultintheneedforadditionalcoal-fired

generating capacity, primarily in Alberta.Mexicoconsumed14milliontonsofcoalin2002.In2025itisprojectedtoconsume25milliontons.Twocoal-fired generatingplants,RioEscondido(1,200megawatts)and CarbonII(1,400megawatts),operatedbythestate-ownedutilityComisiónFederaldeElectricidad(CFE),

consumeapproximately10milliontonsofcoalannually, mostofwhichcomesfromdomesticmines[

14].Inaddi-tion,CFEhasrecentlyswitcheditssix-unit,2,100-megawattPetacalcoplant,locatedonthePacificcoast, fromoiltocoal.Petacalcosestimatedannualcoalcon

-sumptionis6milliontonsofimportedcoal,althoughCFEhasmaintainedtheoptiontogeneratewithfueloil.

Theutilityplanstoaddanadditional700megawattsof coal-firedcapacityatthePetacalcoplantlateinthe

decade [15].Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 51MatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesChinaandIndiaOtherEmergingEconomies 0 1 2 3 4 5BillionShortTons 1980 2002 2015 2025 Figure 53. World Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2002, 2015, and 2025 Sources:1980and2002:EnergyInformationAdministration (EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.

gov/iea/.2015and2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisof Global Energy Markets (2005).

Western EuropeInWesternEurope,environmentalconcernsplayanimportantroleinthecompetitionamongcoal,natural gas,andnuclearpower.Recently,otherfuelsparticu

-larly,naturalgashavebeengainingrelativetocoalinthegenerationmarket.CoalconsumptioninWestern Europehasfallenby36percentsince1990,from894mil

-liontonsto573milliontonsin2002.ThedeclinewassmalleronaBtubasis,at30percent,reflectingthefact thatmuchofitresultedfromreducedconsumptionof

low-Btu lignite in Germany.Overtheforecastperiod,coalconsumptioninWesternEuropeisprojectedtofallbyanadditional20percent (onatonnagebasis),reflectingaslowerrateofdecline thanduringthepreviousdecade.Factorscontributingto furthercutbacksincoalconsumptionincludecontinued penetrationofnaturalgasforelectricitygeneration, growinguseofrenewablefuelsintheregion,continuing pressureonmembercountriesoftheEuropeanUnionto reducesubsidiesthatsupportdomesticproductionof hardcoal, 8andrelativelyslowgrowthinoverallenergyconsumption(0.5percentperyear).Despiteaconsider-abledropinligniteconsumptionsince1990,this low-rankfuelcontinuestobeanimportantcomponent oftheWesternEuropeancoalmarket.In2002,lignite accountedfor50percentoftheregionstotalcoalcon-sumptiononatonnagebasisand29percentonaBtu

basis [16].CoalconsumptioninWesternEuropeselectricpowersectorisprojectedtodeclinefrom6.4quadrillionBtuin 2002to5.4quadrillionBtuin2015and4.8quadrillion Btuin2025.Germanyiscurrentlytheleadingcoal-consumingcountryinWesternEurope,apositionitis expectedtomaintainovertheforecastperiod.Muchof theplannedandrecentlycompletedworkoncoal-fired generatingcapacityinWesternEuropeisrelatedto eitherthereplacementorrefurbishmentofexisting capacity.Germany,Spain,France,Italy,andGreeceall areplanningmajorprojectstoupgradeexistingcoal-

fired generating facilities over the next two decades.

Mature Market AsiaMaturemarketAsiaconsistsofAustralia,NewZealand, andJapan.Australiaistheworldsleadingcoalexporter, andJapanistheworldsleadingcoalimporter.In2002, Australiancoalproducersshipped225milliontonsof coaltointernationalconsumersandconsumedanother 160milliontons(bothhardcoalandlignite)domesti

-cally,primarilyforelectricitygeneration.Coal-firedpowerplantsaccountedfor78percentofAustralias totalelectricitygenerationin2002,alevelthatispro

-jectedtobemaintainedovertheforecasthorizon[

17].OverallcoaluseforAustraliaandNewZealand,takentogether,isprojectedtoincreaseby47milliontons(29percent),from162milliontonsin2002to209million tonsin2025.Themostrecentenergyforecastreleasedby theAustraliangovernment(August2004)indicatesthat coalconsumptioninAustraliawillincreaseby1.5per

-centperyearonaBtubasisfrom2002to2020,whichisslightlyhigherthantheprojectedrateof1.4percentfor Australia/NewZealandoverthesameperiodinthe

IEO2005 reference case [

18].Japan,whichistheseventhlargestcoaluserglobally(followingChina,India,theUnitedStates,Russia,Ger

-many,andSouthAfrica),importsnearlyallthecoalitconsumes,muchofitoriginatingfromAustralia[

19].Currently,about44percentofthecoalconsumedin Japanisusedbythecountryssteelindustry(Japanisthe worldssecondlargestproducerofbothcrudesteeland pigiron,behindChina)[

20].CoalisalsousedheavilyintheJapanesepowersector,andcoal-firedplantsgener

-ated27percentofthecountryselectricitysupplyin2002

[21].Duringtheyears2001through2004,8,700mega

-wattsofnewcoal-firedgeneratingcapacitywasbroughtonlineinJapan[

22].Additionalcoal-firedgeneratingcapacityoriginallyscheduledtocomeonlinebetween theendof2004andtheendof2008hasbeenpostponed tolaterdates[

23].Inthe IEO2005forecast,increaseduseofotherfuelsforelectricitygeneration(including naturalgas,renewables,andnuclear),coupledwithan outlookforsloweconomicgrowthandadeclineinpop-ulation,resultsinarelativelyflatoutlookforJapanese

coal consumption.

Transitional EconomiesCoalconsumptioninthetransitionaleconomiesofEast

-ernEuropeandtheformerSovietUnion(EE/FSU)isprojectedtoriseovertheforecasthorizonfrom771mil

-liontonsin2002to850milliontonsin2015and874mil

-liontonsin2025.IntheEE/FSUcountries,theprocessofeconomicreformandthetransitiontomarket-oriented economiesfromcentrallyplannedeconomicsystems continuetoadvance.Thedislocationsassociatedwith institutionalchangesintheregionhavecontributedsub

-stantiallytodeclinesinbothproductionandconsump

-tionofcoal.In2002,coalconsumptionintheEE/FSUregionwas44percentlower(onatonnagebasis)thanin 1990.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,coalsshareoftotalEE/FSUenergyconsumptionisprojectedtodecline from22percentin2002to17percentin2025(Figure54).

Duringthissameperiod,naturalgasshareoftotal energyconsumptionisprojectedtoincreasefrom45per

-cent to 51 percent.SubstantialdeclinesineconomicoutputandenergydemandfollowingthebreakupoftheSovietUnionin 1991ledtoconsiderabledeclinesinbothoverallenergy 52 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 8Internationally,thetermhardcoalisusedtodescribeanthraciteandbituminouscoal.IndatapublishedbytheInternationalEnergyAgency,coalofsubbituminousrankisclassifiedashardcoalforsomecountriesandasbrowncoal(withlignite)forothers.

consumptionandcoalconsumptionintheFSU.In2002,totalenergyconsumptionintheFSUwas18.5quadril

-lionBtu,or30percent,belowthelevelin1990,andcoalconsumptionwasdownby6.0quadrillionBtu,or45 percent.Reversingrecenthistoricaltrends,coalcon

-sumptioninRussiaandtheotherFSUcountriesispro

-jectedtoincreaseovertheforecastperiod.Russiascoalconsumptionisprojectedtoincreaseby59milliontons (26percent)from2002to2025,andconsumptioninother FSUcountriesisprojectedtoriseby24milliontons(15

percent).Ofthe15FSUcountries,Russia,Ukraine,andKazakh

-stantogetheraccountforvirtuallyallthecoalconsump

-tionandproductionintheregion,andthisisexpectedtoremainthecaseinthefuture[

24].The IEO2005 outlookforRussiascoalconsumptionisgenerallyconsistent withthelong-termenergypolicysetforthintheAugust 2003document,RussiasEnergyStrategyforthePeriodupto2020[25].AlthoughRussiaslong-termenergystrat

-egyfavorsaconsiderableamountofnewnucleargener

-atingcapacity,fossil-fuel-firedplantsareexpectedtocontinueintheirroleastheprimarysourceforelectric powergenerationthrough2020.Fornewfossil-fired generatingcapacity,Russiasenergystrategypromotes theconstructionofadvancedcoal-firedgenerating capacityinthecoal-richSiberianregion(centralRussia) andrecommendsafocusonefficientnatural-gas-fired capacityforthewesternandfareasternareasofthe country.CoalconsumptioninotherFSUcountriesis projectedtoincreaseslightly,primarilyastheresultof increasedutilizationofexistingcoal-firedgenerating

capacity in Kazakhstan and Ukraine.InEasternEurope,coalconsumptionisprojectedtoincreaseslightlyovertheforecastperiod,from374mil

-liontonsin2002to394milliontonsin2025.Polandistheregionslargestproducerandconsumerofcoalandthe secondlargestcoalproducerandconsumerinallof Europe,outrankedonlybyGermany[

26].In2002,coalconsumptioninPolandtotaled149milliontons40per

-centofEasternEuropestotalcoalconsumptionfortheyear.Themostrecent(January2005)long-termenergy policyputforthbythePolishgovernmentindicatesthat coal-firedgenerationshouldremainrelativelyconstant, withnewnatural-gas-firedcapacityusedtomeetfuture demandintheelectricitysector[

27].Additionalplansforbothnewcoal-firedcapacityandtherefurbishment ofexistingcapacityinotherEasternEuropeancountries, includingBosniaandHerzegovina,Bulgaria,theCzech Republic,Macedonia,Slovakia,andYugoslavia,isa strongindicatorthatcoalwillcontinuetobeanimpor

-tant source of energy in the region [

28].Emerging AsiaCoalconsumptionintheemergingeconomiesofAsiaisprojectedtomorethandoubleinthe IEO2005 referencecaseforecast,increasingfrom2,118milliontonsin2002 to3,715milliontonsin2015and4,435milliontonsin 2025.Theprojectedincreaseof2,317milliontonsfrom 2002to2025represents78percentoftheincreasein worldwidecoalconsumptionovertheperiod.Withsub-stantialgrowthincoalconsumptioninChina(1,819mil-liontons)andIndia(315milliontons)overtheforecast period,emergingAsiasshareoftotalworldcoalcon-sumptionisprojectedtorisefrom40percentin2002to

51 percent in 2015 and 54 percent in 2025.DespitethetremendousincreasesincoalconsumptionprojectedforemergingAsia,coalsshareoftotalenergy consumptionintheregionisstillprojectedtodecline slightly,from47percentin2002to44percentin2025.

Muchofthedeclineincoalsshareisattributedto fast-pacedgrowthprojectedfornaturalgasuseinthe

region.Asverylargecountries(intermsofbothpopulationandlandmass)withlargedomesticcoalresources,China andIndiaaccountfor71percentofthetotalincreasein coaluseworldwide(onaBtubasis)overtheforecast period;however,coalsshareofenergyuseinChinaand India,andinemergingAsiaasawhole,stillisprojected todecline.Thelargeincreasesincoalconsumptionpro

-jectedforChinaandIndiaarebasedonanoutlookforstrongeconomicgrowth(averaging6.2percentperyear inChinaand5.5percentperyearinIndiafrom2002to 2025)andtheexpectationthatmuchoftheincreased demandforenergywillbemetbycoal,particularlyin

the industrial and electricity sectors.InChinaselectricitysector,coaluseisprojectedtogrowby3.3percentayear,from14.8quadrillionBtuin2002to Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 53197019801990200220152025 0 20 40 60 80 100PercentHistoryProjectionsMatureMarketEconomiesOtherEmergingEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesChinaandIndia Figure 54. Coal Share of Total Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

31.2quadrillionBtuin2025(Figure55).Incomparison,coalconsumptionbyelectricitygeneratorsintheUnited Statesisprojectedtoriseby1.6percentannually,from 19.8quadrillionBtuin2002to28.6quadrillionBtuin 2025.Oneofthekeyimplicationsofthesubstantialrise incoaluseforelectricitygenerationinChinaisthatlarge financialinvestmentsinnewcoal-firedpowerplants andintheassociatedtransmissionanddistributionsys

-temswillbeneeded.TheprojectedgrowthinelectricitysectorcoaldemandforChinawouldresultintheneed for229,000megawattsofadditionalcoal-firedcapacity (netofretirements)by2025[

29].Attheendof2002,Chinahadanestimated204,000megawattsofcoal-fired

generating capacity.In2002,47percentofChinascoalusewasinthenon-electricitysectors,primarilyintheindustrialsector.

Overtheforecastperiod,coaldemandinChinas non-electricitysectorsisexpectedtoincreaseby19.4 quadrillionBtu(148percent),raisingthenon-electricity shareoftotalcoaldemandto51percentin2025.Coal remainstheprimarysourceofenergyinChinasindus

-trialsector,primarilybecauseChinahaslimited reservesofoilandnaturalgas.In2002,Chinawasthe worldsleadingproducerofbothsteelandpigiron[

30].WithasubstantialportionoftheincreaseinChinasdemandforbothoilandnaturalgasprojectedtobemet byimports,theChinesegovernmentisactivelypromot-ingthedevelopmentofalargecoal-to-liquidsindustry.

Initialproductionofcoal-basedsyntheticliquidsin Chinaisscheduledtocommenceinmid-2007withthe completionofthecountrysfirstcoal-to-liquidsplant.

Theplant,locatedintheInnerMongoliaAutonomousRegion,isbeingbuiltbytheShenhuaCoalLiquefactionCorporation.Followingthecompletionofasecondpro

-ductionphaseatthesamesitein2010,thefacilitywillbecapableofconvertingapproximately17milliontonsof coalto37millionbarrelsofpetroleumproductsannu

-ally(approximately100,000barrelsperday)[

31].TheShenhuaCoalLiquefactionCorporationplanstoexpand productionofcoal-basedsyntheticliquidstoabout220 millionbarrelsperyear(approximately600,000barrels perday)in2020,requiringanestimated80to100million

tons of coal per year as an input [

32].InIndia,slightlylessthan60percentoftheprojectedgrowthincoalconsumptionisattributabletoincreased demandforcoalintheelectricitysector,andtheindus

-trialsectoraccountsformostoftheremainingincrease.In2002,electricitygenerationaccountedfor67percent ofIndiastotalcoaluse.Theuseofcoalforelectricity generationinIndiaisprojectedtoriseby2.2percentper year,from5.1quadrillionBtuin2002to8.5quadrillion Btuin2025,requiringanadditional59,000megawattsof coal-firedcapacity(netofretirements)[

33].Attheendof2002,Indiahadanestimated66,000megawattsofcoal-firedgeneratingcapacity.Currently,thegovernmentis targetingtheconstructionofapproximately40,000 megawattsofnewcoal-firedgeneratingcapacityforthe countryoverthe10-yearperiodendingMarch2012[

34].IntheotherareasofemergingAsia,aconsiderablysmallerriseincoalconsumptionisprojectedoverthe forecastperiod,basedonexpectationsforgrowthin coal-firedelectricitygenerationinSouthKorea,Taiwan, andthemembercountriesoftheAssociationofSouth-eastAsianNations(primarilyIndonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand,andVietnam).Intheelectricity sector,coaluseintheotheremergingcountriesofAsia (includingSouthKorea)isprojectedtoincreaseby2.6 percentperyear,from2.9quadrillionBtuin2002to5.2

quadrillion Btu in 2025.ThekeymotivationforincreasinguseofcoalinotheremergingAsiaistomaintainadiversityoffuel supplyforelectricitygeneration.Thisobjectiveisshared evenincountriesthathaveabundantreservesofnatural gas,suchasThailand,Malaysia,Indonesia,andthePhil

-ippines.Inthe IEO2005forecast,coalsshareoffuelcon

-sumptionforelectricitygenerationintheregion(includingSouthKorea)isprojectedtoincreasefrom27 percentin2002to30percentin2015,thendeclineto26 percentin2025asconsumptionofnaturalgasforelec

-tricity generation increases.

Middle EastIn2002,MiddleEasterncountriesconsumed84milliontonsofcoal,withTurkeyaccountingformorethan86 percentofthetotal.MostofthecoalconsumedinTurkey islocallyproduced,low-Btulignite[

35].Israelaccountsformostoftheregionsremainingcoalconsumption.

54 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 15 11 2 28 27 24 2 53 31 31 2 64ElectricityIndustrialOtherSectorsTotal 0 20 40 60 80QuadrillionBtu 2002 2015 2025 Figure 55. Coal Consumption in China by Sector, 2002, 2015, and 2025 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdminis

-tration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.

doe.gov/iea/.2015and2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisof Global Energy Markets (2005).

Overtheforecastperiod,coalconsumptionintheMid

-dle East is projected to increase by 32 million tons.MuchoftheincreaseduseofcoalprojectedfortheMid

-dleEastisforelectricitygeneration.InTurkey,thecom

-pletionoftwonewcoal-firedpowerplantsin2003and2005isprojectedtoaddanadditional23milliontonsto thecountrysannualcoalconsumption.Theprojects consistofa1,300-megawatthard-coal-firedplantbeing builtonthesoutherncoastofTurkeynearIskenderun,to befueledbyimportedcoal,anda1,440-megawattlig

-nite-firedplant(Afsin-ElbistanBplant)beingbuiltinthelignite-richAfsin-ElbistanregioninsouthernTurkey

[36].BecauseoftheextremelylowheatcontentoftheindigenouslignitefeedstockfortheAfsin-ElbistanB plantapproximately4.0millionBtupertonannual fuelrequirementsareestimatedtobe19milliontons

[37].InIsrael,state-ownedIsraelElectricCorporationplanstobringanadditional1,100megawattsofcoal-firedgeneratingcapacityonlineatAshkelonin2012, nearthesiteofits2,250-megawattRutenbergcoalplant

[38].AfricaAfricascoalconsumptionisprojectedtoincreaseby81milliontonsbetween2002and2025,primarilytomeet demandforelectricity,whichisprojectedtoincreaseata rateof3.7percentperyear.SouthAfricacurrently accountsfor92percentofthecoalconsumedinthecon-tinentandisexpectedtocontinuetoaccountformuchof theincreaseinAfricastotalcoalconsumptionoverthe forecastperiod.Additionalgrowthincoalconsumption islikelytooccurinsomeoftheothercountriesofsouth

-ernAfricathatalsoarewellendowedwithindigenous

coal resources.InSouthAfrica,increasingdemandforelectricityinrecentyearshasledtothedecisionbyEskom,thecoun

-trysstate-ownedelectricitysupplier,torestartthreelargecoal-firedplants(Camden,Grootvlei,andKomati) thathavebeenclosedformorethanadecade[

39].Thefirstofthethreeplantsistoscheduledtocomebackon linein2005,andtheremainingplantsarescheduledfor restartin2008.Theplantshaveacombinedgenerating capacityof3,800megawatts[

40].ProjectionsofpowershortagesforsouthernAfricainthelatterhalfofthis decadehaveledtoincreasedinterestinnewcoal-fired powerprojectsnotonlyinSouthAfricabutalsoinZim

-babwe, Tanzania, Swaziland, and Botswana [

41].Central and South AmericaHistorically,coalhasnotbeenamajorsourceofenergyinCentralandSouthAmerica.In2002,coalaccounted forabout4percentoftheregionstotalenergyconsump

-tion,andinpastyearsitssharehasneverexceeded5per

-cent.Intheelectricitysector,hydroelectricpowerhasmetmuchoftheregionselectricitydemand,andnew powerplantsarenowbeingbuilttousenaturalgasproducedintheregion.Overtheforecastperiod,acom

-binationoffuelsnaturalgas,oil,andrenewableenergy(includinghydropowerandotherrenewables)is expectedtofuelmostoftheregionsprojectedincrease inelectricitygeneration.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,coalisprojectedtomaintaina4-percentshareofCentral andSouthAmericastotalprimaryenergyconsumption.Brazil,withtheworldseighthlargeststeelindustryin2002,accountedformorethan62percentoftheregions coaldemand(onatonnagebasis);Colombia,Chile, Argentina,Peru,andVenezuelaaccountedformuchof theremainder[

42].Intheforecast,Brazilaccountsformostofthegrowthincoalconsumptionprojectedforthe region,withincreaseduseofcoalexpectedforboth steelmakingandelectricityproduction.Brazilssteel companiescurrentlyplantoexpandproductioncapac

-itybyasubstantialamountoverthenextfewyearstomeetincreasingdomesticandinternationaldemandfor steel[43].BrazilsthreesouthernmostStates,RioGrandedoSul,SantaCatarina,andParana,whichcontainmost ofthecountryscoalreserves,areactivelypromotingthe constructionofseveralnewcoal-firedpowerplants[

44].Thenewcoalprojectsbeingpromotedbythegovern-mentofRioGrandedoSulrepresentakeycomponentof

its plan to become self-sufficient in electricity supply.

Trade OverviewComparedwithworldcoalconsumption,theamountofcoaltradedininternationalmarketsisrelativelysmall.

In2003,worldimportsofcoalamountedto714million tons(Figure56andTable9),representing13percentof totalworldconsumption.In2025,coalimportsworld

-wideareprojectedtototal969milliontons,or12percent of world coal consumption.Theworldcoalmarketconsistsofessentiallytwodis

-tinctmarketsasteamcoalmarketandacokingcoalmarket.Theinternationalsteamcoalmarketconsists largelyof(1)demandforcoalforelectricitygeneration, (2)demandforcoaltoproducesteamanddirectheatfor industrialapplications,and(3)demandforcoaltobe usedinblastfurnacesforsteelmaking.Theinternational marketforcokingcoalconsistssolelyofdemandforcoal cokeasafuelandreducingagentforsmeltingironorein

blast furnaces.Growthininternationalcoaltradeinrecentyearshasresultedprimarilyfromincreaseddemandforsteam coalforelectricitygeneration,particularlyinAsia.In contrast,theworldmarketforcokingcoalhasbeenrela

-tivelystable,asAsiansteelproducershaveincreasedtheirimportsandEuropeandtheAmericashave decreasedimports.Mostrecently,increasedimportsof cokingcoalbyChinain2003and2004havecontributed

to the upward trend for coking coal imports to Asia.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 55 Twofactorsthathavecontributedtotherelativelyflattrendinworldcokingcoalimportsarecontinuing increasesinsteelproductionfromelectricarcfurnaces (whichdonotusecoalcokeasaninput),primarilyin EuropeandNorthAmerica;andtechnologicalimprove

-mentsatblastfurnaces,includinggreateruseofpulver

-izedcoalinjectionandhigheraverageinjectionratesper ton of hot metal produced [

45].Inthe IEO2005forecast,worldsteamcoaltradeispro

-jectedtoincreaseby1.5percentperyear,from504mil

-liontonsin2003to693milliontonsin2025.IncreasedexportstoAsia,primarilytofuelnewcoal-firedgenerat

-ingcapacity,accountformostoftheprojectedexpansionintheworldsteamcoalmarket.Worldcokingcoaltrade isprojectedtoincreaseby1.3percentperyear,from210 milliontonsin2003to276milliontonsin2025.Increased importsofcokingcoalareprojectedforChina,South Korea,Taiwan,India,andBrazil,whereexpansionsin

blast-furnace-based steel production are expected.

AsiaBasedprimarilyonstronggrowthinelectricitydemand,Asiasdemandforimportedcoalremainspoisedfor additionalincreasesovertheforecastperiod(Figure57).

Inthe IEO2005forecast,SouthKorea,Taiwan,India,China,andMalaysiaareprojectedtoaccountformostof

the projected growth in coal imports to Asia.AlthoughJapansshareoftotalworldcoaltradehasbeendeclining,itcontinuestobetheworldsleading importerofcoalandisprojectedtoaccountfor19per-centoftotalworldimportsin2025,lessthanits2003 shareof25percent[

46].In2003,Japanreliedalmostentirelyonimportedcoalfordomesticconsumption, purchasing182milliontonsofcoalfromforeignsuppli

-ers.In IEO2005,expectationsofsloweconomicgrowth(1.7percentperyearfrom2002to2025)andashifttoa lessenergy-intensiveeconomyleadtorelativelysmall changesinJapanstotalenergyconsumption(average annualgrowthof0.5percent)andvirtuallynochangein coalconsumption.Asaresult,Japanscoalimportsare projectedtoremainnearthe2003levelthroughoutthe forecast.JapansshareoftotalAsiancoalimports,which declinedfrom85percentin1980to46percentin2003 primarilyasaresultofincreasesincoalimportsby SouthKorea,Taiwan,andIndia,isprojectedtocontinue

falling to 29 percent in 2025.SouthKorea,currentlythesecondleadingimporterofcoalworldwide,isexpectedtomaintainthatposition overtheforecastperiod.CoalimportstoSouthKorea areprojectedtoincreasefrom77milliontonsin2003to 143milliontonsin2025.Asaresult,SouthKoreasshare ofAsiancoalimportsisprojectedtorisefrom19percent in2003to22percentin2025.From2004through2010, SouthKoreanelectricitygeneratorsplantoaddmorethan8,000megawattsofnewcoal-firedgenerating capacity [

47].ChinaandIndia,whichimportrelativelysmallquanti

-tiesofcoalatpresent,areexpectedtoaccountformuchoftheremainingincreaseincoalimportsprojectedfor Asia.From2003to2025,coalimportsbyChinaand India,takentogether,areprojectedtoincreaseby109 milliontons.Increasedimportsofcokingcoalaccount forapproximatelyhalfoftheoverallincreaseincoal importsprojectedforChinaandIndia,whichisunlike theoutlookforotherAsiancountries,wherefuel requirementsfornewcoal-firedpowerplantsarethe keysourceofcoaldemand.ImportsbyChinaandIndia havethepotentialtobeevenhigherthanprojected,but itisassumedintheforecastthatdomesticcoalwillbe givenfirstpriorityinmeetingthelargeprojected increase(2.1billiontons)incoalconsumptioninthetwo

countries.ElsewhereinAsia,recentandplannedadditionsofcoal-firedcapacityhaveincreasedandwillcontinueto addtocoalimportdemandintheregion.InbothMalay-siaandTaiwan,coalimportsareprojectedtorisesub-stantiallyovertheforecastperiodtofuelnewcoal-fired powerplants.Diversificationoffuelsupplyforelectric-itygenerationisthekeyfactorunderlyingMalaysias plansforadditionalcoal-firedgeneratingcapacity[

48].TaiwanPowercitescostadvantagesovernatural-gas-andoil-firedplantsasthekeyfactorunderlyingitsplans fornewcoalplants[

49].InThailand,the1,434-megawatt 56 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005CokingSteamTotal 0 200 400 600 8001,000MillionShortTons 1985 2003 2015 2025 Figure 56. World Coal Trade, 1985, 2003, 2015, and 2025 Sources: 1985:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),AnnualProspectsforWorldCoalTrade1987,DOE/EIA-0363(87)(Washington,DC,May1987).

2003:SSYConsul-tancyandResearch,Ltd.,SSY'sCoalTradeForecast,Vol.14,No.2(London,UK,May2005);andEnergyInformationAdmin

-istration,QuarterlyCoalReport,October-December2003,DOE/EIA-0121(2003/4Q)(Washington,DC,March2004).2015and2025:EnergyInformationAdministration,National Energy Modeling System run IEO2005.D060605B.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 57 Table 9. World Coal Flows by Importing and Exporting Regions, Reference Case, 2003, 2015, and 2025 (Million Short Tons)

Exporters ImportersSteamCokingTotal Europe aAsiaAmericasTotal b Europe a Asia cAmericasTotal b Europe aAsiaAmericasTotal b 2003Australia. . . . . . . . . . .12.596.16.8 115.829.085.18.1 122.341.5181.314.9 238.1United States. . . . . . . .3.00.218.5 21.814.00.07.2 21.217.00.325.7 43.0South Africa. . . . . . . . .70.25.50.4 77.21.00.00.5 1.671.25.51.0 78.7Former Soviet Union. .24.29.50.0 33.82.74.50.0 7.226.914.00.0 41.0Poland. . . . . . . . . . . . .15.10.00.0 15.11.30.00.0 1.316.40.00.0 16.4Canada. . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.90.7 1.58.113.94.1 26.28.114.74.7 27.7China. . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.281.21.1 89.00.112.61.8 14.46.393.82.8 103.4 South America

d. . . . . .32.50.025.2 57.80.00.00.0 0.032.50.025.2 57.8 Indonesia e. . . . . . . . . .16.970.62.9 91.80.115.80.1 16.017.086.43.0 107.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . .180.7263.955.6503.756.3131.921.8210.1237.0395.977.4713.9 2015Australia. . . . . . . . . . .2.5137.30.8 140.728.6121.911.9 162.431.1259.212.7 303.1United States. . . . . . . .5.91.14.0 11.08.90.86.5 16.214.71.810.5 27.1South Africa. . . . . . . . .56.028.84.0 88.70.90.00.8 1.756.828.84.8 90.4Former Soviet Union. .41.523.60.0 65.13.19.40.0 12.544.633.00.0 77.5Poland. . . . . . . . . . . . .6.20.00.5 6.71.10.00.0 1.17.30.00.5 7.8Canada. . . . . . . . . . . .1.50.00.0 1.58.615.312.7 36.610.215.312.7 38.1China. . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.090.40.0 90.40.06.80.0 6.80.097.20.0 97.2 South America

d. . . . . .53.80.047.4 101.20.00.00.0 0.053.80.047.4 101.2 Indonesia e. . . . . . . . . .13.3108.34.5 126.10.014.30.0 14.313.3122.74.5 140.5Total. . . . . . . . . . . . .180.7389.561.3631.551.1168.431.9251.5231.8558.093.2883.0 2025Australia. . . . . . . . . . .0.0164.70.8 165.529.4141.115.1 185.629.4305.815.9 351.2United States. . . . . . . .0.01.04.1 5.16.90.07.7 14.66.91.011.8 19.7South Africa. . . . . . . . .48.040.14.2 92.30.20.00.9 1.148.240.15.1 93.4Former Soviet Union. .42.026.50.0 68.54.29.90.0 14.146.236.40.0 82.6Poland. . . . . . . . . . . . .4.40.00.0 4.40.60.00.0 0.65.00.00.0 5.0Canada. . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.0 0.09.518.510.8 38.89.518.510.8 38.8China. . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.093.70.0 93.70.07.40.0 7.40.0101.10.0 101.1 South America

d. . . . . .69.40.056.6 126.00.00.00.0 0.069.40.056.6 126.0 Indonesia e. . . . . . . . . .6.3124.86.3 137.30.014.30.0 14.36.3139.16.3 151.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . .170.1450.772.0692.850.8191.234.4276.5220.9641.9106.5969.2 aCoalflowstoEuropeincludeshipmentstotheMiddleEastandAfrica.In2003,coalimportstotheMiddleEastandAfricatotaled40.2mil

-lion tons.

bIn2003,totalworldcoalflowsincludeabalancingitemusedtoreconcilediscrepanciesbetweenreportedexportsandimports.The2003 balancing items by coal type were 3.5 million tons (steam coal), 0.1 million tons (coking coal), and 3.6 million tons (total).

c Includes 14.3 million tons of coal for pulverized coal injection at blast furnaces shipped to Japanese steelmakers in 2003.

d Coal exports from South America are projected to originate from mines in Colombia and Venezuela.

eIn2003,coalexportsfromIndonesiaincludeshipmentsfromothercountriesnotmodeledfortheforecastperiod.The2003 non-Indonesian exports by coal type were 8.4 million tons (steam coal), 1.7 million tons (coking coal), and 10.0 million tons (total).Notes:Dataexcludenon-seaborneshipmentsofcoaltoEuropeandAsia.Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.Thesumofthecolumnsmaynotequalthetotal,becausethetotalincludesabalancingitembetweenimportersandexporters

data.Sources: 2003:SSYConsultancyandResearch,Ltd.,SSY'sCoalTradeForecast,Vol.14,No.2(London,UK,May2005);andEnergyInformationAdministration,QuarterlyCoalReport,October-December2003,DOE/EIA-0121(2003/4Q)(Washington,DC,March2004).

2015 and 2025:

Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run IEO2005.D060605B.

MapTaPhutplantisscheduledtobefullyoperationalinMapTaPhutplantisscheduledtobefullyoperationalin early 2007 [

50].Duringthe1980s,Australiabecametheleadingcoalexporterintheworld,primarilybymeetingincreased demandforsteamcoalinAsia.ExportsofAustralian cokingcoalalsoincreased,ascountriessuchasJapan beganusingsomeofAustraliassemi-softorweakcok

-ingcoals 9intheircokeovenblends.Asaresult,importsofhardcokingcoalsfromothercountries,includingthe UnitedStates,weredisplaced.Australiasshareoftotal worldcoaltrade,whichincreasedfrom17percentin 1980[51]to33percentin2003,isprojectedtoremainrel

-ativelysteadyovertheforecastperiod,accountingfor36percentoftotaltradein2025.Australiaisexpectedto continueasthemajorexportertoAsia,withitsshareof theregionstotalcoalimportdemandprojectedto increasefrom46percentin2003to48percentin2025 (Table 9).TwoothermajorsuppliersofcoaltoAsianmarketsareChinaandIndonesia.In2003,Chinaexported94million tonsofcoaltootherAsiancountries,representing24 percentoftotalAsiancoalimports,andIndonesianpro-ducersexported78milliontonstoAsia,or20percentof theregionstotalimportsfortheyear.Overtheforecast period,increasingdomesticdemandforcoalinboth ChinaandIndonesiaisprojectedtolimitgrowthintheir

coal exports.TheUnitedStates,onceamajorsupplierofcoaltoAsia,iscurrentlyonlyaminorparticipantintheAsianmar-ket.TheU.S.shareofAsiascoalimportsdeclinedfrom 28percentin1980tolessthan0.1percentin2003[

52].In2004,however,limitedsuppliesofcokingcoalinthe internationalmarketandaweakerU.S.dollarledto renewedinterestinAppalachiancokingcoal.U.S.cok

-ingcoalexportstoAsia,whichdeclinedfromapeakofmorethan24milliontonsin1982tovirtuallynothingin 2002and2003,weremorethan5milliontonsin2004

[53].U.S.steamcoalexportstoAsiaincreasedfrom0.2 million tons in 2003 to 2.3 million tons in 2004.

Europe, Middle East, and AfricaCoalimportstoEurope,theMiddleEast,andAfrica,takenasawhole,areprojectedtoincreasefrom237mil

-liontonsin2003to239milliontonsin2010andthendeclineto221milliontonsin2025(Figure57andTable 9).Inthe IEO2005forecast,projecteddeclinesinoverallimportstothecountriesofWesternEuropearepartly offsetbyincreasesprojectedforTurkey,Romania,Bul

-garia, and Israel.InWesternEurope,environmentalpressuresandcom

-petitionfromnaturalgasareexpectedgraduallytoreducetherelianceonsteamcoalforelectricitygeneration,andfurtherimprovementsinthe steelmakingprocessareexpectedtocontinuetoreduce theamountofcoalrequiredforsteelproduction.Strict environmentalstandardsareexpectedtoresultinthe closureofsomeofWesternEuropesoldercokeplants andtomakeitdifficulttogetapprovalsforplants,thus increasingimportrequirementsforcoalcokebutreduc

-ingimportsofcokingcoal.ProjectedreductionsindomesticcoalproductionintheUnitedKingdom,Ger

-many,Spain,andFrancearenotexpectedtobereplacedbyequivalentvolumesofcoalimports.Rather, increaseduseofnaturalgasandrenewableenergyis expectedtoreplacemuchofthereductionindomestic energysupplyprojectedtoresultfromcontinuing

declines in the regions indigenous coal production.In2003,theleadingsuppliersofimportedcoaltothecountriesofEurope,theMiddleEast,andAfricawere SouthAfrica(30percent),Australia(18percent),South America(14percent),andtheformerSovietUnion(11 percent).Overtheforecastperiod,low-costcoalfrom SouthAmerica(primarilyfromColombiaandVene-zuela)isprojectedtomeetanincreasingshareofEuro-peancoalimportdemand,displacingsomecoalfrom suchhighercostsuppliersastheUnitedStatesand

Poland.58 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005199520032010201520202025 0 200 400 600 8001,000MillionShortTonsHistoryProjectionsEurope,MiddleEast,andAfricaAsiaTotalAmericas Figure 57. Coal Imports by Major Importing Region, 1995-2025 Sources: History:SSYConsultancyandResearch,Ltd.,SSY'sCoalTradeForecast,Vol.14,No.2(London,UK,May2005);InternationalEnergyAgency,CoalInformation2001(Paris,France,September2001),andpreviousissues;and EnergyInformationAdministration,QuarterlyCoalReport

,October-December2003,DOE/EIA-0121(2003/4Q)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),andpreviousissues.

Projections:EnergyInformationAdministration,NationalEnergyModeling

System run IEO2005.D060605B.

9Semi-softorweakcokingcoalisblendedwithhardcokingcoalbeforebeingchargedintothecokeoventoproducecoke.Semi-softcoalneedstobeblendedbecause,usedalone,itdoesnotproducecokewithsufficientstrength.Coalcokeisusedprimarilytosmeltironorein blastfurnaces,actingasasourceofheatandasachemicalreducingagentfortheproductionofpigiron.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 59 Recent Developments in World Coal TradeTheyears2003and2004sawtwosolidback-to-backincreasesininternationalcoalshipments.In2003, worldcoaltraderoseto714milliontons,anincreaseof 9percentfrom2002.Preliminarydatafor2004indicate thatworldcoaltradereachedapproximately760mil

-liontons,foranadditionalincreaseof6percentover 2003.aGainsincoalshipmentstoeachofthethreemajorcoalimportdemandregionsdiscussedin thischaptercontributedtothe100-million-ton-plus

increase in world coal trade for the 2-year period.Inadditiontothesubstantialincreasesininternationalcoaltradein2003and2004,othernotabledevelop

-mentsfortheperiodweresharpupwardmovementsinbothoceanfreightratesandcoalexportprices.During 2003,oceanfreightratesforcoalrosetonearall-time recordhighs.Muchoftheincreasewasattributableto substantialgrowthinimportsofironorebyChinese steelproducers,whichinturncreatedashortageof oceanvesselsfortransportingotherdrybulkproducts, includingcoal.

bChinaimported163milliontonsofironorein2003,anincreaseof33percentfrom2002.

cAccordingtoGlobalInsight,Inc.,substantialamounts ofnewshippingcapacityprojectedtocomeonlineby theendof2007shouldhelptoalleviatethecurrent capacityshortage,whichinturnshouldleadtosome reductionsinfreightrates.

dGlobalInsightestimatesthatbetweenthebeginningof2004andtheendof2007 annualdry-bulk-shippingcapacitywillexpandby approximately550milliontons,whiledemandfor annualdry-bulk-shippingwillincreasebyonly309

million tons.Whilefreightratesforcoalretreatedsomefromthehis

-torichighsreachedinearly2004,coalexportprices(bothsteamandcoking)beganincreasinginlate2003 andcontinuedtorisethroughout2004.Limitedsupply ofexportcoalistheprimaryexplanationgivenforthe substantialriseincoalexportprices.Someofthefac

-torsthatrestrainedexportsupplyduringtheyearincluded(1)substantialshippingdelaysatAustralian coalports,asexpansionsinportinfrastructurehave notkeptpacewiththerecentsurgeinChinasdemand forironoreandcokingcoal;(2)reducedexportsofsteamcoaloutofSouthAfrica,mostlyduetorail-relatedshippingdelays;and(3)reducedexports andincreasedimportsofcokingcoalbyChina.Rela

-tiveto2003,Chinaimportedanadditional4milliontonsofcokingcoalin2004andexported8milliontons less.Otherfactorsaffectingcoalexportpricesin2003 and2004weretheeffectsofhigherfreightrateson internationalcoalmarkets,increasingconcentrationin theownershipofcoalexportsupply,andincreasing importanceofcoal-on-gascompetitionininternational

power supply.

eTakentogether,higherfreightratesandcoalexport pricesledtoconsiderablyhigherpricesforimportsof steamandcokingcoal.Quarterlydataonaverage steamcoalprices,publishedbytheInternational EnergyAgency,indicatethattheaveragepriceofcoal importedtotheEuropeanUnioninthefourthquarter of2004(nominaldollarsperton)wasupby92percent fromthefourthquarterof2002, fandtheaveragepriceofsteamcoalimportedtoJapanwasupby67percent.

Forcokingcoal,thepricesofimportedcoaltotheEuro-peanUnionandJapaninthefourthquarterof2004 were60and54percenthigher,respectively,thaninthe fourthquarterof2002.Inlate2004,annualnegotiations betweenJapanesesteelmillsandAustraliancoking coalproducersestablishedanewbenchmarkpricefor Japanscurrentfiscalyear(endingonMarch31,2006) at$113.40pertonfree-on-board(f.o.b.)portofexit, whichwasmorethandoublethebenchmarkpriceof

$51.70 per ton for the previous year.

gTodate,highercoalpricesdonotappeartohavehada significanteffectonthedemandforcoalininterna

-tionalmarkets.Intheelectricpowersector,thepriceofnaturalgas,coalskeycompetitorinthissector,has alsobeenhigh.Intheindustrialsector,steelproducers haveseenincreasingprofitsdespitehigherpricesfor cokingcoalandironore,asstrongworldwidedemand forsteelhasledtoconsiderablyhigherpricesfortheir products.Asindicated,coalfreightratesareexpected toretreatsomefromrecenthighlevelsasnewshipping capacitycomesonlineoverthenextfewyears.Inturn, (continued on page 60) aSSYConsultancyandResearchLtd.,SSYsCoalTradeForecast,Vol.14,No.2(May2005);andEnergyInformationAdministration, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2004 , DOE/EIA-0121(2004/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2005), Tables 10, 12, and 14.

bOceanFreightRatesContinueToSoar,LittleReliefinSight,CoalAmericas

,EnergyPublishingLLC,No.29(November3,2003),p.1.

cSteel/Iron Ore: Iron Ore Exports, Iron Ore Imports and Steel Production

, Monthly Shipping Review SSY (April 21, 2005), p. 7.

d Global Insight, Inc., Global Coal Trade and Price Report (2004)(Lexington, MA, December 2004), pp. xviii-xxii.

eWorseningAustralianCoalPortCongestion,MonthlyShippingReviewSSY(April21,2005),p.4;andSupplyDynamicsonthe Move,Petroleum Economist (October 6, 2004).

f International Energy Agency, Databases for Energy Prices and Taxes, 2nd Quarter 2005 , web site http://data.iea.org.

gT.Grant-Taylor,CoalPricesSteamingAhead,TheCourierMail(February7,2005),p.18;andS.Wyatt,CoupforCokingCoal Exports,Australian Financial Review (December 13, 2004), p. 17.

DespiteSouthAmericascurrentfootholdandexpectedgainsinEurope,SouthAfricaisprojectedtomaintainits positionastheleadingsupplierofcoaltoEurope throughoutmuchoftheforecastperiod.Currently, planscallfora15-million-tonexpansionofSouth AfricasRichardsBayCoalTerminalbytheendof2007, increasingthefacilitysannualthroughputcapacityto

95 million tons [

54].The AmericasComparedwithEuropeanandAsiancoalmarkets,importsofcoaltoNorthandSouthAmericaarerela-tivelysmall,totaling77milliontonsin2003(Table9).

CoalimportstotheUnitedStatesaccountedfor32per-centofthe2003regionaltotal,followedbyCanadaat30 percentandBrazilat20percent[

55].MostoftheimportstoBrazilwerecokingcoal,andamajorityoftheremain-ingimporttonnagewassteamcoalusedforpulverized

coal injection at steel mills [

56].Overthe IEO2005forecastperiod,coalimportstotheAmericasareprojectedtoincreaseby29milliontons, withmostoftheadditionaltonnagegoingtotheUnited StatesandBrazil.CoalimportstotheUnitedStatesare projectedtoincreasefrom25milliontonsin2003to46 milliontonsin2025[

57].Thisoutlookisbasedonthecapabilityandplansofexistingcoal-firedgenerating plantstoimportcoal(primarilyplantslocatedonthe easternseaboardandinthesoutheasternpartofthe country)andannouncedplanstoexpandcoalimport infrastructure[

58].InBrazil,thecountrysexpandingsteelindustryisprojectedtorequireincreasingquanti

-ties of imported coal.PartiallyoffsettingtheprojectedgrowthincoalimportselsewhereintheAmericas,Canadianimportsare expectedtodeclinesubstantiallyoverthenextfewyears astheOntariogovernmentmovesaheadwiththeshut

-downoftheProvincesfivecoal-firedgeneratingplants.Ontarioimported20milliontonsofcoalin2003,primar

-ilyfromU.S.coalminesinCentralAppalachiaandthePowderRiverBasin[

59].AfterOntario,NovaScotiaandNewBrunswickaccountformostofCanadasremainingimporttonnage.In2003,NovaScotiaimported2.0mil

-liontonsofcoalandNewBrunswickimported1.4mil

-liontons.U.S.coalexportstoCanadaareprojectedtofallfrom21milliontonsin2003to7milliontonsin2025[

60].References 60 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Recent Developments in World Coal Trade (Continued)thisshouldleadtosomedownwardpressureonthenon-transportationcomponentofthedeliveredprice ofcoalinmarketssuchasEurope,whereAustralian coalshouldagainbeabletocompetewithcoalorigi

-nating from South Africa and South America.Alongwithstronggrowthinworldcoaltradeinrecentyears,thegeographicalcompositionofcoalsupplyfor internationalmarketshaschanged.WhileemergingcoalexportingcountriessuchasChina,Colombia,andIndonesiahaveincreasedtheiroutputsubstantially overthepastfewyears,severalofthemoreestablished coal-exportingcountriessuchastheUnitedStates, SouthAfrica,Canada,andPolandhaveseentheir exportsremainrelativelyconstantordecline.Between 1998and2003,coalexportsfromChinaexpandedbya substantial190percent,from36milliontonsto103mil

-lion tons.

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htm (accessed May 20, 2005).35.EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,websitewww.eia.doe.gov(March-June2004),Tables2.5and5.4;andInterna

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23, 2004), web site www.babcockborsigpower.de.37.M.Ersoy,TurkishCoalEnterprises,CurrentStatusofTurkishLigniteSector,presentationatthe UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope (UNECE)AdHocMeetingofExpertsonCoalin SustainableDevelopment,Geneva,Switzerland (November17-18,2003),websitewww.unece.org; EUASModifiesAfsin-ElbistanBLigniteProject, IBSResearch&ConsultancyEnergyLine(December2, 2002), web site www.ibsresearch.com.38.Israels5thCoalPlantOffSchedule,PlattsInterna

-tionalCoalReport,No.689(November8,2004),p.10;andAsiaBeatIsrael,PowerinAsia,No.415 (November 11, 2004), p. 24.39.S.Samayende,EskomsPowerStationsToCreate26,000NewJobs,AllAfrica(February16,2005),

websitewww.allafrica.com;andWorldMarkets ResearchCentre,CountryReport:Canada(May 10,2005),websitewww.worldmarketsanalysis.

com.40.IEA Coal Research, CoalPower5 Database (2005).

41.P.Nyakazeya,RioTintoSeeksPartnersforSengwaCoalProject,TheHerald(Harare)(April5,2005),websitewww.allafrica.com;TanzaniaNow ToPay$2.5mMonthlytoSongas, LiquidAfricaHoldingLimited(June11,2004);C.Baputaki,MakwinjaTakesOverasMCLBoardChair, Mmegi/TheReporter(Gaborone)(April29,2005),websitewww.allafrica.com;andSwaziland:Plans ToExpandPowerProduction,UNIntegrated RegionalInformationNetworks(May4,2005),web

site www.allafrica.com.42.Websitewww.worldsteel.org;andEnergyInfor

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US$5bnToDoubleCapacityby2010, Business News Americas (May 24, 2004).45.InternationalEnergyAgency,CoalInformation2003(Paris,France,November2003),pp.I.101-I.102and

Table 3.10.46.SSYConsultancyandResearchLtd.,SSYsCoalTradeForecast,Vol.14,No.2(London,UnitedKing-dom,May2005);EnergyInformationAdministra-tion,NationalEnergyModelingSystem,run

IEO2005.D060605B.47.C.Bergesen,PlattsUDICountryProfile:South Korea,Platts(February10,2005),websitewww.platts.com;SouthKoreasPowerIndustry HasBeenRestructured,PowerEngineeringInterna

-tional,Vol.13,No.3(March1,2005);KoreaMidlandPowerCompany,Ltd.,NationwideConstruction Status(AsoftheEndofMay2005),website www.komipo.co.kr;SKoreaPoscoToLiquidate PosenergyUnit,DowJonesInternationalNews (May27,2001);andKorea:5thLong-TermPowerDevel

-opmentPlan,InternationalMarketInsightReports (February 10, 2001).50.CoalImportstoFeedPowerGenerationGrowth,PetroleumReview(January7,2005),p.36;MalaysiaandThailandShowtheWayForward, Coaltrans ,No.28(November/December2004),p.27;and MalaysianCoalProjectAdvances,PowerinAsia (June 12, 2003), p. 4.49.TaiwanPowerExpectsTotal2005-2014CapexNT$1.7Tln,DowJonesNewswires(January20, 2004).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 6350.P.VichakulandV.Sivavong,ThailandCoalDemandforPowerGenerationin2004-2015,pre

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-caland11thAPECCoalFlow(Policy)Seminar,Cebu,Philippines(January26-29,2005),website www.apec-egcfe.org;andOrderforCoal-Fired PowerPlantFromBLCPPowerofThailand,News Release,MitsubishiHeavyIndustries,Ltd.(Sep

-tember 19, 2003), web site www.mhi.co.jp.51.EnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualPros

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-dom, September 2002).53.EnergyInformationAdministration,QuarterlyCoalReport,October-December2004,DOE/EIA-0121(2004/4Q)(Washington,DC,March2005),Table12.54.RBCTandTransnetSoonToSignPhaseVExpan

-sion,SpoornetAsksforFinalAssurances, PlattsInternationalCoalReport,No.663(May10,2004),p.1;RichardsBayPerformsWoefully, Mc-CloskeysCoalReport,No.84(April30,2004),pp.18-19;andAgreementClearsWayforRichardsBayCoalTerminalsR1.75bnExpansion, Business Report(January14,2004),websitewww.busrep.

co.za.55.SSYConsultancyandResearchLtd.,SSYsCoalTradeForecast,Vol.14,No.2(London,UnitedKingdom,May2005);EnergyInformationAdmin

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www.nrcan.gc.ca (accessed May 16, 2005).60.EnergyInformationAdministration,National Energy Modeling System, run IEO2005.D060605B.

Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period.

The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead

the increase in world electricity use.

TheInternationalEnergyOutlook2005(IEO2005) refer-encecaseprojectsthatworldnetelectricityconsumptionwillnearlydoubleoverthenexttwodecades.

10Overtheforecastperiod,worldelectricitydemandisprojectedto growatanaveragerateof2.6percentperyear,from 14,275billionkilowatthoursin2002to21,400billion kilowatthoursin2015and26,018billionkilowatthours in2025(Figure58).Morethanone-half(59percent)of theprojectedgrowthindemandoccursintheemerging economies,withthematuremarketandtransitional economiesaccountingfor28percentand14percent, respectively.Thischapterexaminesthefutureofelectricitysupplyanddemand,beginningwithadiscussionofregional demandprojectionsandthetrendsinexpansionantici-patedoverthenexttwodecades.Theremainderofthe chapterdiscussestheprojectionsforelectricitygenerat-ingcapacity,withparticularattentiontohowthe regionalfuelmixmightchangeovertheforecastperiod.

Regionaldifferencesinfueldiversity,operatingefficien-cies,andabilitytomeetgrowingdemandforelectric

power are reviewed.

Net Electricity ConsumptionGrowthinnetelectricityconsumptionisexpectedtobe mostrapidamongtheemergingeconomiesoftheworld, withannualaveragegrowthof4.0percentfrom2002to 2025(Figure59).Incontrast,electricitydemandispro

-jectedtoincreasebyanaverageof1.5percentperyearinthematuremarketeconomiesandanaverageof3.1per

-centperyearinthetransitionaleconomiesofEasternEuropeandtheformerSovietUnion(EE/FSU).Onan absolutequantitybasis,ChinaandtheUnitedStates leadtheprojectedgrowthinnetelectricityconsumption, adding2,803and1,819billionkilowatthoursoverthe 23-yearforecasttotheirrespectiveannualnetconsump-

tion levels.

Mature Market EconomiesElectricityuseinthematuremarketeconomiesisexpectedtoincreasemoreslowlythanintheemerging andtransitionaleconomies,averaging1.5percentper yearinthe IEO2005referencecaseovertheprojectionperiod.Inthematuremarketeconomies,theelectricity Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 65 14,275 18,875 21,400 23,677 26,01820022010201520202025 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000BillionKilowatthoursHistoryProjections Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).20022010201520202025 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000BillionKilowatthoursMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomiesHistoryProjections Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

10 In IEO2005,netelectricityconsumptionincludesbothelectricityandheatproducedforsaletothegrid.Itdoesnotincludeelectricitygeneratedonsiteatindustrialfacilities.

sectoriswellestablished,andequipmentefficiencygainsareexpectedtotemperthegrowthinelectricity

demand.AlthoughpartsoftheUnitedStatesstillhaveexcessnat

-ural-gas-firedelectricitycapacitythatwasinstalleddur

-ingtheboominconstructionbetween2000and2004,strongeconomicgrowththroughoutthecountrywill requirethedevelopmentofadditionalgenerationcapac

-ity.ElectricitydemandintheUnitedStatesisprojectedtoincreasefrom3,651billionkilowatthoursin2002to 5,470billionkilowatthoursin2025.Demandgrowthis expectedtobeparticularlystronginthecommercialsec

-tor,averaging2.4percentperyear.Rapidadditionstocommercialfloorspace,thecontinuingpenetrationof newtelecommunicationstechnologiesandmedical imagingequipment,andincreaseduseofofficeequip

-mentareprojectedtooffsetefficiencygainsforelectricequipmentinthesector.Intheindustrialandresidential sectorselectricityconsumptionisexpectedtogrowat moremoderaterates,averaging1.3percentperyearand

1.6 percent per year, respectively.NetelectricityconsumptioninWesternEuropeispro-jectedtoincreaseinthe IEO2005referencecasefrom2,556billionkilowatthoursin2002to3,072billion kilowatthoursin2025.Electricitydemandgrowthinthe regionwill,inpart,beinfluencedbytheprogressit makesinliberalizingitselectricpowermarkets.Western Europesdrivetoreducecross-borderbarriersthrough-outtheregionaleconomyisexpectedtoincreasecompe-titioninitselectricityandnaturalgasmarkets,offsetting someoftheincreasedcoststhatwillresultfromreduced relianceoncoal-firedandnuclearpowerplantsand increasedrelianceonnaturalgasandrenewablesfor

electricity production.AllelectricitycustomersintheEuropeanUnion(EU)willhavetherighttochoosetheirsuppliersbyJuly2007.

Furthermore,in2004newEUdirectivesenteredinto force,requiringenergycompaniestounbundleformerly verticallyintegratedsupplychainsandmandatingthe establishmentofuniform,well-definedregulatorybod

-iestoincreaseinformationtransparency,helpingtoincreasecompetitionintheelectricitysectorand,asa

result, restrain price increases [

1].Inaddition,populationsinWesternEuropeandJapanareexpectedeithertoremainatcurrentlevelsorto declineslightlytowardtheendoftheforecastperiod, andasaresultitisunlikelythatdemandforelectricityin theresidentialsectorwillincreasesubstantially.West

-ernEuropeandJapanareexpectedtohavetheslowestgrowthinresidentialelectricityconsumption,averaging 0.4and0.6percentperyear,respectively,andincom

-mercialelectricityconsumption,averaging0.8and0.9 percent per year, respectively.

Transitional EconomiesElectricitydemandamongtheEE/FSUtransitionaleconomiesisprojectedtoincreaseatanaverageannual rateof3.1percentoverthe2002-2025period.Thisis higherthanthe1.5-percentaverageannualincreaseover thepast30years,mostlyasaresultoftheprecipitous dropinelectricityusethatfollowedthefalloftheSoviet regimeintheearly1990s.Netelectricityconsumptionin theEE/FSUregionisprojectedtoclimbfrom1,544bil

-lionkilowatthoursin2002to3,145billionkilowatthours in 2025.ManyoftheFSUcountriesareattemptingtoreformorliberalizetheirelectricitysectorsforthemostpart,to attractmuchneededprivateandforeigninvestmentto repairandexpandagingandneglectedinfrastructure.

InRussia,forinstance,littleinvestmentwasmadeinthe 1990stoupgradethecountryselectricitysystem,and especiallyitstransmissionanddistributioninfrastruc

-ture,whichincludessomeoperationaltransformersthatdatebacktothe1930s[

2].ArecentmajorelectricityblackoutinMoscowunderscorestheinfrastructure problem.OnMay25,2005,between2and4millionpeo-plewereleftwithoutelectricityforseveralhoursfollow-inganexplosionataMoscowsubstationthathadbeen

operating for more than 40 years.Russiasthermalgeneratingcapacityisscheduledforprivatizationaspartofthecountryselectricpowersec-torrestructuringplan,withnuclearpowerplants remainingunderstatecontrolandhydroelectricfacili-tiesplacedunderthecontrolofasinglestate-owned company[3].Thestate-ownedUnifiedEnergySystemsutilityhascreated6wholesalepowergeneratingcompa

-niesand14territorialgeneratingcompaniestobeprivat

-izedin2005;however,thegovernmenthasdelayedthe privatization until early 2006.OutsideRussia,theprogresstowardelectricitysectorreformhasbeenmixed.Kazakhstanappearstobeinthe mostadvancedstageofrestructuringintheregion.

RestructuringofthepowersectorinKazakhstanbegan in1995withtheunbundlingofdistribution,transmis

-sion,andgenerationfunctions[

4],andby1998,thegov

-ernmenthadprivatizedmostofthecountrysgeneratingcapacity,aswellasanumberofdistributioncompanies, andwasallowingdirectelectricitysalestolargeend

users.Ukrainesprivatizationeffortbeganin1997,andeachofthecountrysregionalelectricitydistributorshasbeen partiallyprivatized[

5].Progresshasbeenslowforanumberofreasons,however.Onlyminorpercentages havebeenofferedtoinvestors,andinvestorsare requiredtocommittosubstantial,long-terminvest

-mentsintheelectricityinfrastructure.Inaddition,Lithuania,Azerbaijan,andUzbekistanhavestarted 66 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 powersectorliberalization,althoughtheirprogressalso has been slow.InEasternEurope,effortstorestructureandliberalizenationalelectricitysectorshavebeendrivenbythe accessionofseveralcountries 11totheEU.EUmember

-shiphascompelledmanynationsoftheregiontoreformelectricitymarketsinordertomeetEUstandards.The CzechRepublicplanstobeginsellingits67.8-percent stakeintheCeskeEnergetickeZavodygeneratorsome

-timein2006tocomplywithEUrulesonelectricitysectorliberalization[

6],and10ofthe12powerproducersin Hungary are owned by foreign companies.

Emerging EconomiesEmergingeconomiesareprojectedtomorethandoubletheirnetelectricityconsumption,from4,645billion kilowatthoursin2002to11,554billionkilowatthoursin 2025.Theprojectedgrowthinnetelectricityconsump

-tionfortheemergingmarketeconomiesisdriveninlargepartbygrossdomesticproduct(GDP)andpopula

-tiongrowthassumptions(seeboxonpage69).GDPgrowthisinturndependentonaccesstoreliableelectric-

ity supplies.Becauseofthelinksbetweenreliableelectricitysupply,GDPgrowth,andlivingstandards,manyofthenations withemergingeconomiesareattemptingtoincrease accesstoreliableelectricitysupply.Theneedtoincrease theircitizensaccesstoelectricityhasledmanygovern-mentsoftheemergingeconomiestoimplementavari-etyofstrategies,suchasprivatizationtoincrease investmentintheelectricitysector,enactinggovern

-mentpoliciestoencourageinvestmentfrompotentialforeignparticipants,andintroducingruralelectrifica

-tionschemesaimedatbringingelectricitytoruralcom

-munities,bothtoimprovestandardsoflivingandtoincreasetheproductivityofruralsocieties.TheInterna

-tionalEnergyAgencyhasestimatedthat1.6billionpeo

-plelackedaccesstoelectricityin2002andthat,despiteprojectedgainsinelectrificationrates,thenumberof peoplewithoutaccesstoelectricitywillfallonlyslightly (to1.4billionin2030),mostlyasaresultofcontinued

population growth in developing countries [

7].Asanexampleoftheeffortsbeingmadetoimproveelec

-trification,IndiaannouncedplansinMarch2005tocon

-tinuesubsidizingelectricityconsumptionforruralandpoorhouseholdsthatuselessthan30kilowatthoursper month.Currently,45percentofhouseholdsinIndiado nothaveaccesstoelectricity.Thenewlegislationhasset atargetofelectrifyingallhouseholdsby2010.Asinthe past,theongoingchallengeinprovidingelectricityto thepoorispayingfortheelectricity.Someprogresshas beenmadeinreducingcross-sectorsubsidyburdens;however,evenwithcommercialandindustrialconsum

-erssubsidizingpoorconsumers,regionalelectricitycompaniesstillareexpectedtopayforsomeofthesubsi

-dies[8].Theburdenofsubsidiesisamplifiedbyinade

-quaterevenuecollectionsystemsandoutrighttheftofelectricity.Forexample,in2002Indiasregionalelectric

-ity companies lost $5.3 billion [

9].Indiasnewelectricitypolicyalsoplacesconsiderableemphasisonreliability.Thepolicyrequiresthatwithin sixmonthstheCentralElectricityAuthoritymust launchitsfirstNationalElectricityPlan,coveringthe periodto2017.Centraltotheplansistheprovisionof adequategenerationcapacityby2012basedon85per

-centavailabilityandincludingreservesofatleast5per

-cent [10].InChina,newsreportsoverthepastfewyearshavehighlightedelectricitygenerationshortfallsduringperi

-odsofpeakdemand.Toclosetheannualsupplyshort

-agesandmeetfurthergrowthindemand,Chinas11thfive-yearplanincludesplansforexpandingelectricity generationcapacityto570gigawattsby2010.Inorderto meetthisrapidrateofexpansion,roughly8percent annually,investmentsof$20to$30billionperyearwill beneeded[11].Itappears,however,thatbuildingmorepowerplantsmaynotprovideacompletesolutionto Chinaselectricpowerlimitations.Equallyimportantis supplyingprimaryfueltothepowerplantsandcon-structingtransmissionlinestoreachelectricityconsum-ers.TheChineseStateGridCorporationestimatesthat investmentsof$10billionperyearwillbeneededfor upgradingelectricitytransmissioninfrastructurealone

[12].Thepotentialimpactsoflackofelectricpowerinfra

-structureonChinaseconomyareillustratedbyrecentdevelopmentsinthecountrysindustrialsector.

Three-quartersoftheelectricityconsumedinChinais usedformanufacturingandheavyindustry[

13].Whenelectricityshortagesoccurredinthesummerof2004, someindustrialproductionhadtobecut.In2004Beijing shutdownapproximately6,400industrialfacilitiesfor oneweekandthenstaggeredtheiroperationsforthe durationofthesummertoavoidconsumptionpeaks

[14].Itisclearthat,unlesstheChineseelectricityinfra

-structurecankeeppacewithdemandforelectricpower,thenegativeimpactofelectricityshortagesontheindus

-trialsectorcouldhavesignificantdetrimentalimpacts on the countrys economy.

Electricity SupplyTomeettheworldsprojectedelectricitydemandover the2002to2025forecastperiod,anextensiveexpansion ofinstalledgeneratingcapacitywillberequired.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 67 11TheCzechRepublic,Hungary,Poland,Slovakia,andSloveniaaccededtotheEuropeanUnioninMay2004.BulgariaandRomaniaarescheduledtojoinin2007.

Worldwideinstalledelectricitygeneratingcapacityisexpectedtogrowfrom3,315gigawattsin2002to5,495 gigawattsin2025inthe IEO2005referencecase,ata 2.2-percent average annual growth rate (Figure 60).

In IEO2005,generatingcapacityisdefinedasthehourlylevelofproductionwhenapowerplantisoperat

-ingatfullcapacity.Baseloadgenerationtypicallyoper

-atesasclosetofullcapacityaspossible.Peakingsystems,suchasnaturalgasturbines,typicallyoperate attimesofpeakdemandthatis,thosetimesoftheday whenelectricityuseisatitshighest.Incontrast,most renewableelectricitygenerationsystems 12cannotbereliedupontomeetpeakdemand.Instead,renewable systemsareoperatedwheneverresourcesareavailable.

Windturbinesdonotoperatewhenwindspeedsare eithertoolowortoohigh;hydroelectricpowerisvulner

-abletodrought;andsolarsystemsdonotoperateatnight.Thatsaid,evenfossilfuelandnuclearpower plantscannotoperateat100percentcapacityallyear long.Outagesforannualmaintenance,aswellassea

-sonalanddailyfluctuationsindemand,reducetheiroperatingcapacityrelativetotheirnameplate

capacity.Themixofprimaryfuelsusedtogenerateelectricityhaschangedagreatdealoverthepastthreedecadesona worldwidebasis.Coalhasremainedthedominantfuel,althoughelectricitygenerationfromnuclearpowerincreasedrapidlyfromthe1970sthroughthemid-1980s, andnatural-gas-firedgenerationhasgrownrapidlyin the1980sand1990s.Incontrast,inconjunctionwiththe highworldoilpricesbroughtonbytheoilpriceshocks aftertheoilembargobytheOrganizationofArabPetro

-leumExportingCountries(OAPEC) 13in1973-1974andtheIranianRevolutionin1979,theuseofoilforelectric

-itygenerationhasbeenslowingsincethemid-1970s.Highworldoilpricesencouragedswitchingfrom oil-firedgenerationtonaturalgasandnuclearpower andreinforcedcoalsimportantroleinworldelectric

power generation.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,continuedincreasesintheuseofnaturalgasforelectricitygenerationareexpected worldwide(Figure61).Coalisprojectedtocontinueto retainthelargestmarketshareforelectricitygeneration, butitsimportanceisexpectedtobemoderatedsome

-whatbyariseinnaturalgasuse.Theroleofnuclearpowerintheworldselectricitymarketsisprojectedto lessen,althoughsomenewreactorsareexpectedtobe addedovertheforecasthorizon,mostlyintheemerging andtransitionaleconomies.Generationfromhydro-powerandotherrenewableenergysourcesisprojected togrowby54percentoverthenext23years,buttheir shareoftotalelectricitygenerationisprojectedtoremain

near the current level of 18 percent.

68 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 200520022010201520202025 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000GigawattsMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomies EmergingEconomiesHistoryProjections Figure 60. World Electricity Generation Capacity by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

2002 2010 2015 2020 2025020406080100PercentofTotalOilNaturalGas CoalNuclearRenewablesHistoryProjections Figure 61. Fuel Shares of World Electricity Generation, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdminis

-tration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.

doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisof Global Energy Markets (2005).

12Thegenerationcapacitydatapresentedinthischapterasrenewablesincludehydropower,wind,geothermal,solar,andother.Thedataforhydropowerincludeconventionalhydroimpoundment,run-of-river,andpumpedstoragebecauseofthedifficultyindistinguish

-ingamongthevarioustechnologiesonaworldwidebasis.Afurtherchallengeisaccountingfordistributedsmall-scalehydroelectricitypro

-duction.Therefore,therenewablegenerationcapacityfiguresmayunderrepresenttotalinstalledcapacity.Biomass-firedcapacityisnotincluded(exceptforcaseswherebiomassisaddedtothecoalstreamincoal-firedpowerplantsandintheU.S.data)becauseoflimiteddata

availability.

13OAPECincludesSaudiArabia,Iran,Iraq,theUnitedArabEmirates,Kuwait,andQatar.

CoalInthe IEO2005referencecase,coalcontinuestobethedominantfuelforgenerationofelectricityandcombined heatandpower(districtheat).

14In2025,coalisprojectedtofuel38percentoftheworldselectricitygeneration, comparedwitha24-percentsharefornaturalgas.Coal-firedcapacityisexpectedtogrowby1.5percentper year,from987gigawattsin2002to1,403gigawattsin2025(Figure62).Installedcoal-firedcapacity,asashareoftotalworldcapacity,declinesfrom30percentto26

percent over the forecast.Bycountry,theUnitedStatesandChinacurrentlyaretheleadersintermsofinstalledcoal-firedcapacity,at 311and204gigawatts,respectively.InChina,strong growthinnatural-gas-firedcapacityisprojectedtopush coalssharedownfrom65percentto52percentoftotal Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 69 Electricity Consumption per CapitaNetelectricityconsumptionintheworldsemergingeconomiesisprojectedtogrowby149percentfrom 2002to2025.Bythatmeasure,theemergingeconomies wouldsurpassthematuremarketeconomiesinterms oftotalannualelectricityconsumption;intermsofper capitaconsumption,however,theemergingecono

-miesareexpectedtocontinuetrailingthematuremar

-keteconomies(seefigurebelow).Withtheemergingeconomiesexpectedtoaccountfor82percentofthe worldspopulationin2025,theprojectedincreasein demandforecastfortheregiontranslatestoanincrease inpercapitanetelectricityconsumptionfrom950 kilowatthoursperpersonin2002to1,807kilowatt-hoursperpersonin2025.Evenwiththisstrong growth,percapitaconsumptionfortheemergingecon-omiesasawholewouldremainmuchlowerthanthat forthematuremarketeconomies.Netelectricityuse percapitainthematuremarketeconomiesisprojected toincreasefrom8,371kilowatthoursperpersonin2002

to 10,632 kilowatthours per person in 2025.Thedifferencesinpercapitaelectricityconsumptionamongtheemerging,transitional,andmaturemarket economiesareespeciallystarkintheresidentialsector, whichcanserveasaproxyforlivingstandards.For example,intheresidentialsectoronaperpersonbasis, CanadaandtheUnitedStatesconsumedover24times moreelectricitythanChinain2002,29timesmorethan Africa,and47timesmorethanIndia.Althoughthedif

-ferencesareexpectedtonarrowovertheforecastperiod,theystillwouldbesubstantialin2025,withper capitaelectricityuseintheUnitedStatesremaining9 timeshigherthaninChina,14timeshigherthanin Africa,and17timeshigherthaninIndia(seefigure

below).Emerging EconomiesTransitional EconomiesMatureMarket Economies 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000KilowatthoursperCapitaperYear 2002 2025 Electricity Consumption per Capita by Region, 2002 and 2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergy Markets (2005).

IndiaAfrica ChinaOtherEmergingAsiaMexicoCentralandSouthAmericaSouthKoreaMiddleEastFormerSovietUnionEasternEuropeWesternEuropeJapanAustralia/NewZealandUnitedStates Canada02,0004,0006,000KilowatthoursperCapitaperYear 2002 2025 Residential Sector Electricity Consumption per Capita by Country Group, 2002 and 2025 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdminis

-tration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

2025:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisof Global Energy Markets (2005).

14OnlyintheEE/FSUregionisheatasignificantportionoftheoutputfromcentralpowerstations.

generatingcapacity.IntheUnitedStates,coal-firedpowerplantsareexpectedtocontinuesupplyingmost ofthecountryselectricitythrough2025[

15].In2002,coal-firedplantsintheUnitedStates(includingutilities, independentpowerproducers,andend-usecombined heatandpower)accountedfor51percentofallelectric

-itygeneration.WhiletheoutputfromU.S.coal-firedpowerplantsincreasesintheforecast,from1,881billion kilowatthoursin2002to2,890billionkilowatthoursin 2025,theirshareoftotalgenerationdecreasesslightly,to 50percent,asaresultofarapidincreaseinnatu

-ral-gas-fired generation.CoalconsumptionintheUnitedStatesasashareoffuelsusedforelectricitygenerationisexpectedtorisefrom52 to53percentovertheforecast.Intermsofinstalled capacity,coalsshareofthetotalwillholdsteadyat35 percent.Coalisusedforbaseloadgeneration,which explainswhyitaccountsforonly35percentofU.S.

capacitybutgeneratesmorethanone-halfofthecoun

-trys electricity.WesternEurope,EasternEurope,andtheFSUallareprojectedtoseedeclinesincoal-firedgeneratingcapac-ityovertheforecastperiod.Notsurprisingly,thethree regionsarealsoexpectedtoseelargeincreasesin

installed natural-gas-fired capacity.

Natural GasAdditionstonaturalgascapacityareprojectedtoincreasetheworldsgas-firedgeneratingcapacityby approximately3.9percentperyearfrom2002to2025 (Figure63),atafasterratethanprojectedforanyother energysource.Natural-gas-firedcapacityisanattractivechoicefornewpowerplantsbecauseofitsfueleffi

-ciency,operatingflexibility,rapiddeployment,andlowerinstallationcostscomparedtoothertechnologies.

Thisdevelopmentrepresentsamajorchangeinthefleet ofelectricitygenerationplants.Becauseoftheshorter installationtimeandlowerinvestmentcostsfor gas-firedcombined-cyclegenerationincomparisonto coal,totalinstallednaturalgascapacity(combinedwith oilcapacity)isexpectedtosurpasscoal-firedinstalled generationcapacityby20101,207gigawattsversus 1,151gigawatts.Thecombinedshareofnaturalgasand oilinworldinstalledgeneratingcapacityisprojectedto

rise from 36 percent in 2002 to 47 percent in 2025.IntheUnitedStates,theelectricpowersectorispro

-jectedtoaccountforanever-largershareoftotalnaturalgasdemand.About23percentoftotalU.S.naturalgas consumptionin2002wasintheelectricpowersector, andin2025itsshareisprojectedtobeto31percent[

16].Natural-gas-firedgenerationcapacityisexpectedto growmorerapidlythancapacityusinganyotherenergy sourcefrom2002to2020.From2020to2025,however, naturalgaspricesareprojectedtoincreasesubstantially, andasaresultcoal-firedcapacityisexpectedtolead

new additions [

17].WesternEurope,Japan,andCanadaaresimilarlyexpectedtofavornaturalgascapacityoverotherfuels fornewgeneratingcapacitybecauseoflowerinvest-mentcostsandshorterconstructiontimes,aswellasthe factthatgasisanadvantageouseconomicalternativeto otherfossilfuels.Moreover,theseregionshaveinsti-tutedenergypoliciestolimittheuseofcoalinthe 70 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 200520022010201520202025 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500GigawattsMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomies EmergingEconomies Figure 62. World Coal-Fired Generation Capacity by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdminis

-tration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.

doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisof Global Energy Markets (2005).20022010201520202025 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500GigawattsMatureMarketEconomiesTransitional Emerging Figure 63. World Natural-Gas- and Oil-Fired Generation Capacity by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdminis

-tration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.

doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisof Global Energy Markets (2005).

electricitygenerationsector.WiththeKyotoProtocolnowineffect,furthereffortstoreducegreenhousegas emissionswilllikelyencouragemorerelianceonnatural

gas [18].TheFSUregion,withitsaccesstorichnaturalgasresources,alsoincreasesitsrelianceonnaturalgasfor electricitygenerationinthe IEO2005referencecasefore

-cast.Naturalgasalreadyprovidesabout45percentofthetotalenergyusedforelectricitygenerationinthe FSU,andtheregionsrelianceongas-firedgenerationis projectedtoincreaseevenfurtheroverthenextdecades, to 55 percent in 2025.NaturalgasconsumptioninChinaselectricpowersec

-torisprojectedtoincreaserapidlyfromarelativelylowtotalof0.2quadrillionBtuin2002to4.3quadrillionBtu in2025,atanimpressive14.7-percentaverageannual growthrate.Incomparison,India,SouthKorea,andthe restofemergingAsiacombinedareexpectedtoseean increaseof3.7quadrillionBtuovertheperiod,andnatu

-ralgasuseforelectricitygenerationintheUnitedStates is projected to grow by 3.9 quadrillion Btu.

OilRelativelylittlechangeisexpectedinoil-firedgenera-tioncapacity.Oilsshareoftheworldsinstalledcapac-itydeclinesovertheprojectionperiod,froman8-percent marketsharein2002to7percentin2025.Oilhasmore valueinthetransportationsectorandinlimitedapplica-tionsfordistributeddiesel-firedgeneratorsthanincen-tralpowerplantapplications.Theonlyregionexpected toseeasizableincreaseinoil-firedelectricpowercapac-ityistheMiddleEast,wheresomenewoil-firedcapacity isexpectedtobebuilt.Oiluseforelectricitygeneration intheMiddleEastisexpectedtoincreasefrom2.1qua

-drillion Btu in 2002 to 4.1 quadrillion Btu in 2025.Inrecentyears,Chinahasshownfairlystronggrowthinoil-firedelectricitygeneration,becausepeakelectricity demandcontinuestooutpaceon-gridelectricitygenera

-tion,andChineseindustryhashadtorelyondieselgen

-eratorstocopewithannualsummerpowershortages.Thatsituationisexpectedtocontinueintheshortterm, butasplannedcapacityfueledbynaturalgas,coal, nuclear,andhydropowercomesonlineandthecoun

-trysnationalelectricitygridmatures,thedemandforoil used to generate electricity is expected to moderate.

Nuclear PowerInthe IEO2005referencecase,electricitygenerationfromnuclearpowerplantsaroundtheworldispro

-jectedtoincreasefrom2,560billionkilowatthoursin2002to3,032billionkilowatthoursin2015and3,270bil

-lionkilowatthoursin2025,andtheworldsnuclear-poweredgeneratingcapacityisprojectedtoincrease from361gigawattsin2002to422gigawattsin2025.In pasteditionsofthe IEO,incontrast,declinesinnuclearpowerwereprojectedinthemid-termforecastasaresultofexpectationsthatfewnewreactorswouldbebuiltandthatolderreactorswouldbeshutdownwhen

they reached the end of their operating lives.Prospectsfornuclearpowerhaveimprovedinrecentyears,withhighercapacityutilizationratesreportedfor manyexistingnuclearfacilitiesandtheexpectationthat mostexistingplantsinthematuremarketandtransi

-tionaleconomynationswillbegrantedextensionstotheiroperatinglives.Further,higherfossilfuelprices andtheentryintoforceoftheKyotoProtocolare expectedtoimproveprospectsfornewnuclearpower capacityovertheforecastperiod.Nevertheless,nuclear powertrendscanbedifficulttoanticipateforavarietyof politicalandsocialreasons,andconsiderableuncer

-taintyisassociatedwithnuclearpowerforecasts(see box on page 72).Nuclearpowerisanimportantsourceofelectricityinmanycountriesoftheworld.In2003,19countries dependedonnuclearpowerforatleast20percentof theirelectricitygeneration(Figure64).AsofMarch2005, Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 71FranceLithuaniaSlovakiaBelgiumSwedenUkraineBulgariaSloveniaSouthKoreaSwitzerlandArmeniaHungaryGermanyCzechRepublicJapanFinlandSpainUnitedStatesUnitedKingdomRussiaCanadaRomaniaArgentinaSouthAfricaMexicoNetherlandsBrazilIndiaPakistanChina0102030405060708090100Percent Figure 64. Nuclear Shares of National Electricity Generation, 2004Source:InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency,ReferenceDataSeries2,PowerReactorInformationSystem,website

www.iaea.org/programmes/a2/ (June 2005).

72 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 How Nuclear Power Could Shape World Electricity Markets: Two Nuclear Power Development ScenariosTwoopposingscenariosofnuclearpowerdevelop

-mentcanbeusedtoassessthepotentialofnuclearpowerintheelectricitymarketsofthefuture.Ina strongnuclearpowerrevivalcasedevelopedfor

IEO2005,fewnuclearplantsareretired,andnewbuildsincreasetheworldstotalnucleargenerating capacityto570gigawattsin2025.Incontrast,aweak nuclearpowercaseassumesthatnuclearpowerpro

-grams,especiallyinWesternEuropeandtheEE/FSU,aredismantled,fewnewnuclearpowerplantsarecon

-structed,andinstallednuclearpowercapacityfallsto297gigawattsin2025.The IEO2005referencecasepro

-jectsanincreaseinworldnuclearcapacity,from361 gigawatts in 2002 to 422 gigawatts in 2025.Inveryfewinstancesisthedecisiontobuildnuclearpowercapacityleftentirelytocorporationsorutilities thatwouldbasetheirdecisionssolelyoneconomics.In general,governmentpolicy(withaneyetopublic opinion)guidesthedevelopmentofnuclearpower.

TheOAPECoilembargoof1973-74ledsomenationsto pursuenuclearpowerprogramsaggressivelyinthe 1970s,mostlywithstrongpublicsupport;butsubse-quentaccidentsattheThreeMileIslandnuclearpower plantintheUnitedStatesin1979andChernobylinthe SovietUnionin1986pushedpublicopinionand nationalenergypoliciesawayfromnuclearpower.In theUnitedStates,rapidlyincreasingcapitalcostsand repeatedconstructiondelaysvirtuallyendedconstruc-tionofnuclearpowerplants;andinEurope,both beforeandaftertheChernobyldisaster,severalEuro

-peangovernments,includingItaly,Austria,Belgium,Germany,andSwedenannouncedtheirintentionsto

withdraw from the nuclear power arena.Formanyyearsanalystsexpectedsocial,economic,andpoliticalpressurestocauseasubstantialslow

-downofnuclearpowerexpansionintheshorttermandadeclineinnucleargeneratingcapacityinthelong term.Morerecently,however,therehasbeentalkofa renaissanceinthenuclearpowerprogramsofthe UnitedStatesandsomeEuropeancountries,asfossil fuelpriceshaveremainedrelativelyhigh,andenergy securityissues,concernsaboutairpollutionandglobal warming,andthehighperformancelevelsofexisting nuclearpowerplantshavecometotheforefront.

a Ontheotherhand,afutureadverseeventinvolving nuclearpower,suchasanotherChernobyl-sized nuclearpowerplantaccidentoraterroristevent involvinganattackonanuclearplantorusingpro

-cessednuclearmaterialstocommitanactofterrorism,couldstrengthennegativeperceptionsofnuclear

power.Thetableontheoppositepagesummarizesthepro

-jectedfuelmixfortheworldsinstalledelectricpowercapacityinthreecases:the IEO2005referencecase,strongnuclearpowerrevivalcase,andweaknuclear powercase.Withthesamemacroeconomicassump

-tionsineachofthethreecases,itisnotsurprisingthattheyallprojectthesametotal(about5,500gigawatts)

for world installed electricity capacity in 2025.Muchoftheexpansioninnucleargeneratingcapacityprojectedinthestrongnuclearpowerrevivalcasea totalof148gigawattsisinregionswitholder,more maturenuclearpowermarkets.ManyWesternEuro

-peanandEE/FSUcountrieshaveestablishednuclearpowerindustries,andtheywouldbecapableofstav

-ingoffthedeclineinnuclearpowercapacityprojectedinthereferencecasebyreversingplannedphaseoutsof existingnuclearpowerplants,lengtheningoperating lives,andconstructingnewnuclearcapacityinre

-sponseto,forexample,concernsaboutclimatechange.Inthestrongnuclearcase,WesternEuropesprojectednucleargeneratingcapacityin2025is52gigawatts higherthaninthereference,theEE/FSUsis36 gigawattshigher,andJapansis15gigawattshigher.

The IEO2005strongnuclearcaseassumesthatemerg-ingeconomieswithnuclearpowerexpansionplans, includingChina,India,andSouthKorea,expandthe developmentofnuclearpowertothegreatestextent possible.Therefore,inthestrongnuclearrevivalcase theemergingnationsareabletoincreasetheirnuclear capacitybyaddingacombined37gigawattsofaddi

-tionalcapacityby2025relativetothereferencecase values.Constructionandoperationof148gigawattsofaddi

-tionalnuclearcapacityin2025inthestrongnuclearrevivalcasewouldhavethegreatestimpactonthefuel sharesofnaturalgas,oil,andrenewablesinthefuel mixforworldelectricitygeneration(seetable).Because WesternEurope,theEE/FSU,andJapanallarepro

-jectedtoseedeclinesorminimalgrowthincoal-firedcapacityinthereferencecase,thereislittleornooppor

-tunityfornewnuclearcapacitytodisplacecoal.Asaresult,thestrongnuclearrevivalcaseshowsdeclinesof 96gigawattsinnaturalgasandoilcapacityand32 gigawattsinrenewableelectricitycapacityin2025rela

-tive to the reference case projections.Intheweaknuclearpowercase,almosteveryregionlosessomenuclearcapacityby2025relativetotheref

-erencecase.OnlyfortheMiddleEastandMexico,with (continued on page 73) aS.TaubandJ.-L.Wang,TheU.S.NuclearPowerBusiness:PoisedforExpansion?(Cambridge,MA:CambridgeEnergyResearchAssoci

-ates, May 2005), p. 1 (private report).

therewere441nuclearpowerreactorsinoperationaroundtheworld,andanother25wereunderconstruc

-tion.Fivenewnuclearpowerplantsbeganoperationin 2004-oneeachinChina,Japan,andRussiaandtwoin Ukraine-andCanada'sBruce3reactorwasrecon

-nectedtothegrid.Fivenuclearpowerplantswereper

-manentlyshutdownin2004-oneinLithuaniaandfour intheUnitedKingdom.Forthematuremarketeconomies,thereferencecase assumesthat,inthelongterm,retirementsofexisting plantsastheyreachtheendoftheiroperatingliveswill notbebalancedbytheconstructionofnewnuclear powercapacity,andtherewillbeaslightdeclinein installednuclearcapacitytowardtheendoftheforecast.

Fewnewbuildsareexpectedinthematuremarket economiesoutsideofJapan,France,andFinland.EnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 73HowNuclearPowerCouldShapeWorldElectricityMarkets:TwoNuclearPowerDevelopmentScenarios (Continued)theirrelativelysmallnuclearpowerindustries,arethe2025projectionsunchangedfromthoseinthereference

case.bTotalworldinstallednuclearcapacityin2025is125gigawattslowerintheweaknuclearcasethanin thereferencecase.WesternEuropeshedsthelargest amountofnuclearcapacityin2025intheweaknuclear case(50gigawatts),followedbytheEE/FSU(27giga

-watts),emergingAsia(24gigawatts),andJapan(14

gigawatts).InemergingAsia,coal-firedcapacitymakesupformostofthelossofnuclearcapacityintheweaknuclearcase,with20gigawattsofadditionalcoalcapacitycon

-structedinChina,India,andSouthKoreacomparedto thereferencecasein2025.TheotheremergingAsian countriesconstructanadditional7gigawattsofnatu

-ral-gas-firedandoil-firedcapacityintheweaknuclear case.InWesternEurope,theEE/FSU,andJapan,natu

-ralgas,oil,andrenewablesareusedtomakeupforthe lossofnuclearcapacity,with63gigawattsofadditional natural-gas-andoil-firedcapacityand10gigawattsof additionalrenewablecapacityconstructedrelativeto thereferencecaseprojectionsin2025.

bForthepurposesofthisanalysis,U.S.nuclearcapacitieswerenotvariedacrossthenuclearcases.WhileEIArecognizesthatthereispotentialforincreasesordecreasesinU.S.nuclearpowercapacityinthefuture,noanalysishasbeendonetoquantifythatpotential.Asaresult,U.S.numbersareheldconstanttolevelsreportedintheAnnualEnergyOutlook2005

.WorldInstalledElectricityGenerationCapacitybyFuelinThreeNuclearCapacityCases,2002-2025 (Gigawatts)AnalysisCaseandFuelType2002ProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20252010201520202025 IEO2005ReferenceCaseNaturalGasandOil...........1,2071,8512,0712,3042,5603.3 Coal.......................9871,1511,2321,3221,4031.5 Nuclear.....................3613904014114220.7 Renewable..................7639279801,0361,1101.6Total......................3,3184,3194,6845,0735,4952.2StrongNuclearPowerRevivalCaseNaturalGasandOil...........1,2071,8492,0412,2542,4643.2

Coal.......................9871,1531,2321,3201,3971.5 Nuclear.....................3613954494985702.0 Renewable..................7639289701,0201,0781.5Total......................3,3184,3264,6925,0925,5092.2WeakNuclearPowerCaseNaturalGasandOil...........1,2071,8652,0872,3422,6263.4

Coal.......................9871,1601,2451,3391,4261.6 Nuclear.....................361360357340297-0.8 Renewable..................7639349871,0501,1271.7Total......................3,3184,3184,6775,0715,4762.2 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

WesternEuropesnuclearcapacityisprojectedtodropfrom127gigawattsin2002to115gigawattsin2015and 95gigawattsin2025.InJapan,however,nuclearcapac

-ityisprojectedtoexpandby9gigawattsbetween2002and2025.U.S.nuclearcapacityisprojectedtoincrease from99gigawattsin2002to103gigawattsin2025,in partbecauseofthereturnoftheBrownsFerryreactor, scheduledfor2007.Lifeextensionsandhighercapacity factorsareexpectedtoplayamajorroleinsustainingthe U.S.nuclearindustry.Thus,despiteadecliningshareof globalelectricityproduction,nuclearpowerisprojected tocontinueinitsroleasanimportantsourceofelectric

power.Incontrasttothematuremarketeconomies,rapidgrowthinnuclearpowercapacityisprojectedforRussia andfortheworldsemergingeconomies(Figure65).The EE/FSUandemergingeconomiescombinedarepro

-jectedtoadd42gigawattsofnuclearcapacitybetween2002and2015andanother35gigawattsbetween2015 and2025.Overtheforecastperiod,thelargestadditions ofnuclearcapacityareexpectedinemergingAsia (China,India,andSouthKorea)andinRussia.Chinais projectedtoadd24gigawattsofnuclearcapacityinthe

IEO2005referencecase,India12gigawatts,SouthKorea12gigawatts,andRussia14gigawatts.Amongthe maturemarketeconomies,onlyJapanisexpectedtoadd asizableamountofnuclearcapacity,atotalof9giga-

watts between 2002 and 2025.

Hydroelectricity and Other RenewablesInthe IEO2005referencecase,moderategrowthintheworldsconsumptionofhydroelectricityandother renewableenergyresourcesisprojectedoverthefore

-castperiod.Mostrenewableenergysourcesarenotexpectedtocompeteeconomicallywithfossilfuelsinthemid-termforecast.Intheabsenceofsignificantgovern

-mentpolicies,suchasthoseaimedatreducingtheimpactsofcarbon-emittingenergysourcesontheenvi

-ronment,itwillbedifficulttoextendtheuseofrenewablesonalargescale.Worldwide,theuseof hydroelectricityandotherrenewableenergyispro

-jectedtoincreasebyanaverageof1.9percentperyear,from32.1quadrillionBtuin2002to42.4quadrillionBtu

in 2015 and 48.9 quadrillion Btu in 2025.

The IEO2005projectionsforhydroelectricityandotherrenewableenergyresourcesincludeonlyon-grid renewables.Non-marketed(noncommercial)biofuels fromplantandanimalsourcesareanimportantsource ofenergy,particularlyinthedevelopingworld,andthe InternationalEnergyAgencyhasestimatedthatsome 2.4billionpeopleindevelopingcountriesdependon traditionalbiomassforheatingandcooking[

19].How-ever,becausecomprehensivedataontheuseofnon-marketedfuelsanddispersedrenewables(renewable energyconsumedonthesiteofitsproduction,suchas solarpanelsusedtoheatwater)arenotavailable,they arenotincludedintheprojections.Bothnon-marketed fuelsanddispersedrenewablesareconsideredinfor-

mulating end-use energy demands.Muchoftheprojectedgrowthinrenewablegenerationisexpectedtoresultfromthecompletionoflargehydro-electricfacilitiesinthecountrieswithemergingecono-mies(Figure66),particularlyinAsia,wheretheneedto expandelectricityproductionwithassociateddamsand reservoirsoftenoutweighsconcernsaboutenvironmen-talimpactsandtherelocationofpopulations.China, 74 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 200520022010201520202025 0 100 200 300 400 500GigawattsMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomies Figure 65. World Nuclear Power Generation Capacity by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).20022010201520202025 0 200 400 600GigawattsMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomiesEmergingEconomies Figure 66. World Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Generation Capacity

by Region, 2002-2025 Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

India,andLaos,amongotheremergingAsianecono

-mies,alreadyareconstructingorplanningnewlarge-scalehydroelectricfacilities.In2004,Indias 1,500-megawattNathpaJhakriprojectontheSutlej RiverinHimachalPradeshbecamefullyoperational

[20].In2005,theWorldBankapprovedfinancingforthe$1.2billionNamTheunprojectinLaos[

21].The1,070-megawatthydroelectricprojectinLaoshasbeenthesub

-jectofmuchdebateanddelayoverthepastseveralyears,butwithfinancialsupportfromtheWorldBank andAsiaDevelopmentBanktheprojectmightcomeon lineasearlyas2009[

22].Chinas11thfive-yearplanexpects42gigawattsofadditionalhydroelectricgenerat

-ing capacity by 2010 [

23].ManynationsofCentralandSouthAmericahaveplanstoexpandtheiralreadywell-establishedhydroelectric resources.Brazil,Peru,andevenoil-richVenezuela haveplanstoincreasehydroelectriccapacityoverthe nextdecade.BrazilisthelargestenergymarketinCen

-tralandSouthAmerica,andmorethan80percentofitselectricitygenerationcomesfromhydroelectricsources.

Asaresult,Brazilisespeciallyvulnerabletodrought-inducedshortagesinelectricitysupply.Ingeneral,the nationsofCentralandSouthAmericaarenotexpected toexpandhydroelectricresourcesdramaticallybut insteadareexpectedtoinvestinothersourcesofelectric-ityparticularlynatural-gas-firedcapacitythatwill allowthemtodiversifyelectricitysuppliesandreduce theirrelianceonhydropower.Brazilhadplannedto increasethenaturalgasshareofitsgenerationto12per-centby2012,butregulatoryandpriceriskshaveslowed theconstructiontimetablesforitsplannednewgas-fired

power plants [

24].Hydroelectriccapacityoutsidetheemergingeconomiesisnotexpectedtogrowsubstantially.Amongthemature marketnations,onlyCanadaisexpectedtoconstruct anysizablehydroelectricprojectsovertheforecast period.Anestimated34,371megawattsofnewhydro

-electriccapacitycurrentlyisunderconsiderationforfuturedevelopmentinCanada[

25].IntheEE/FSUcountries,mostadditionstohydroelectriccapacityare expectedtocomefromrepairorexpansionofexisting plants.Inthematuremarketandtransitionaleconomies, mosthydroelectricresourceseitherhavealreadybeen

developed or lie far from population centers.Windpowerhasshownthefastestgrowthamongrenewableenergysourcesinrecentyears.Inmany emergingeconomies,smallwindandwind-hybrid installationsareeffectiveinbringingelectricpowerto ruralareasthatcannotbeconnectedtonationalgrids; andamongthematuremarketeconomies,thegrowthin windpowerhasbeenparticularlyrobust.Western EuropeandtheUnitedStatesaccountedfornearly90 percentofallnewwindinstallationsin2003addinga combined5,952megawattsofnewwindcapacity[

26].Germany,Spain,andDenmarkallwereamongthetopfivewindinstallersin2003.Germanyaddedthemost windcapacityin2003,2,645megawatts,bringingthe countrystotalinstalledwindcapacityto14,609mega

-watts.IntheUnitedStates,becausetheFederalproduc

-tiontaxcreditforwindplantswasnotextendeduntillatein2004,onlyalittlemorethan200megawattsofnew windcapacitywasaddedin2004[

27].In2005,however,morethan1,000megawattsofnewU.S.windcapacityis

expected to enter service.

References Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 751.InternationalEnergyAgency,WorldEnergyOutlook 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), p. 250.2.P.Vorobyov,CERAInsight:RussianElectricityReformAftertheMoscowBlackout(Cambridge, MA:CambridgeEnergyResearchAssociates,June

20, 2005), p. 5.3.A.Neff,CountryReportRussia(Energy):Utilities:Electricity(WorldMarketResearchCen

-tre,June7,2005)websitewww.

worldmarketsanalysis.com.4.A.Neff,CountryReportKazakhstan(Energy):Utilities:ElectricityandGas(WorldMarket ResearchCentre,June1,2005),websitewww.

worldmarketsanalysis.com.5.A.Neff,CountryReportUkraine(Energy):Util-ities:ElectricityandGas(WorldMarketResearch Centre,June1,2005),websitewww.

worldmarketsanalysis.com.6.S.Berger,CountryReportCzechRepublic(Energy):Utilities:Electricity(WorldMarket ResearchCentre,June1,2005),websitewww.

worldmarketsanalysis.com.7.InternationalEnergyAgency,WorldEnergyOutlook 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), p. 348.8.PlattsGlobalPowerReport,IndianGovt.HopesNewElectricityPolicyWillSecure$205Bil.Sector Investment(March3,2005),ISSN1095-6441,web

site www.platts.com.9.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,EnergySectorAnalysisIndia:NewIndianElectricityBill OffersHopeofGreaterTransparencyandCompeti

-tion(May6,2003),websitewww.

worldmarketsanalysis.com.10.PlattsGlobalPowerReport,IndianGovt.HopesNewElectricityPolicyWillSecure$205Bil.Sector Investment(March3,2005),ISSN1095-6441,web

site www.platts.com.11.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,CountryReportChina(Energy)Utilities:Government Policy(January18,2005),websitewww.

worldmarketsanalysis.com.

76 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 200512.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,EnergySectorAnalysisChina:NavigatingtheMinefieldofChi

-nesePowerInvestment(March23,2005),website www.worldmarketsanalysis.com.13.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,EnergySectorAnalysisChina:PlayingCatchUp:ChinesePower Generation(August04,2004),websitewww.

worldmarketsanalysis.com.14.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,EnergySectorAnalysisChina:UrbanCentresinChinaTo FaceFreshPowerCrunchDuringSummer Months(April07,2005),websitewww.

worldmarketsanalysis.com.15.EnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington, DC, February 2005), p. 88.16.EnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington, DC, February 2005), p. 95.17.EnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington, DC, February 2005), p. 87.18.InternationalEnergyAgency,WorldEnergyOutlook 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), p. 197.19.InternationalEnergyAgency,WorldEnergyOutlook 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), p. 36.20.InternationalRiversNetwork,TheWorldBanksLegacyofFundingHydropowerProjectsinIndia:

NathpaJhakri(October2004),website

www.irn.org.21.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,WorldBankApprovesLoanforLaotianDam(April4,2005),

web site www.worldmarketsanalysis.com.22.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,EDFBacktracksonLaosPull-Out(October2,2003),website

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worldmarketsanalysis.com.24.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,CountryReportBrazil(Energy)Electricity(March29, 2005), web site www.worldmarketsanalysis.com.25.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,CountryReport:Canada(Energy),(January30,2004)website

www.worldmarketsanalysis.com.26.AmericanWindEnergyAssociation,WindEnergyIndustryGrowsatSteadyPace,AddsOver8,000 MWin2003,GlobalWindEnergyMarketReport (March 10, 2004), web site www.awea.org.27.EnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington, DC, February 2005), p. 92.

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions In the coming decades, responses to environmental issues could affect patterns of energy use around the world. Actions to limit greenhouse gas emissions could alter

the level and composition of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by energy source.Carbondioxideisoneofthemostprevalentgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere.Anthropogenic(human-caused)emissionsofcarbondioxideresultprimarily fromthecombustionoffossilfuelsforenergy,andasa resultworldenergyusehasemergedatthecenterofthe climatechangedebate.IntheInternationalEnergyOut

-look2005 (IEO2005)referencecase,worldcarbondioxideemissionsareprojectedtorisefrom24,409millionmet

-rictonsin2002to33,284millionmetrictonsin2015and 38,790 million metric tons in 2025 (Figure 67).

15TheKyotoProtocol,whichrequiresparticipating AnnexIcountriestoreducetheirgreenhousegas emissionscollectivelytoanannualaverageofabout5 percentbelowtheir1990leveloverthe2008-2012period, becamealegallybindingtreatyonFebruary16,2005,90 daysafteritwasratifiedbyRussia.Russiasratification broughtthetotalnumberofsignatoriestomorethan55 countries,includingAnnexIsignatoriesthataccounted formorethan55percentofAnnexIcarbondioxideemis-sionsin1990.TheAnnexIcountriesincludethe24origi-nalmembersoftheOrganizationforEconomic CooperationandDevelopment(includingtheUnited States),theEuropeanUnion,and14countrieswithecon

-omiesintransition(Russia,Ukraine,Estonia,Latvia, Lithuania, and Eastern Europe).

16 The IEO2005referencecaseprojectionsarebasedonU.S.andforeigngovernmentlawsineffectonMarch1,2005.

Thepotentialimpactsofpendingorproposedlegisla

-tion,regulations,andstandardsarenotreflectedintheprojections,noraretheimpactsoflegislationforwhich implementingmechanismshavenotbeenannounced.

The IEO2005referencecaseforecastdoesnotincludethepotentialimpactsoftheKyotoProtocol,becausethe treatydoesnotindicatethemethodsbywhichratifying partieswillimplementtheirobligations.Moreover,the Protocoldoesnotaddresssignatoryobligationsbeyond 2012,makingitimpossibletoassessitsimpactson energymarketsandcarbondioxideemissionsthrough

2025 in the context of a reference case projection.Anotherdifficultyinprojectingenergy-relatedcarbondioxideemissionsinthecontextoftheKyotoProtocolisthat,inthe5-yearincrementsoftheSystemfortheAnal

-ysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(SAGE)model,uponwhichthisforecastisbased,2010istheonlyprojection yearthatispartoftheProtocolsfirstcommitment period.Further,thespecificenergy-consumingsectors thatwillbeaffectedineachcountryandregionhavenot

been identified.Despitethechallenges,itisimportanttoaddressthepossibleimpactsoftheKyotoProtocol,becausethey couldstronglyinfluencefutureenergytrends.Accord

-ingly,thischapterbeginswithapresentationofthe IEO2005referencecaseforecastforregionalcarbondiox-ideemissions,whichcanserveasanestimateagainst whichfutureemissionsreductionscanbemeasured.

The IEO2005KyotoProtocolcaseassumesthattheemis-sionsgoalsoftheProtocolwillbemetbythecountries thathaveratifiedthetreatyandhaveobligationstolimit orreducetheirgreenhousegasemissions,usingacom-binationofdomesticactionsandpurchasesofinter-nationalemissionspermits.ResultsfromtheKyoto Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 77199020022010201520202025 0 10 20 30 40 50BillionMetricTonsTotalMatureMarketEconomiesTransitionalEconomies EmergingEconomies Figure 67. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2025 Sources:1990and2002:EnergyInformationAdministration (EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.

gov/iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

15Inkeepingwithcurrentinternationalpractice, IEO2005presentsdataongreenhousegasemissionsinmillionmetrictonscarbondiox

-ideequivalent.Thefigurescanbeconvertedtocarbonequivalentunitsbymultiplyingby12/44.

16AsofMay27,2005,149countriesandtheEuropeanCommunityhadratified,accepted,accededto,orapprovedtheKyotoProtocol.Alistofthe149countriesisprovidedinAppendixJ.

Protocolcaseareanalyzedinthesecondpartofthe chapter.Reference Case Carbon Dioxide EmissionsInthe IEO2005referencecase,worldcarbondioxideemissionsfromtheconsumptionoffossilfuelsare expectedtogrowatanaveragerateof2.0percentper yearfrom2002to2025.Emissionsin2025areprojected tototal38,790millionmetrictons,exceeding1990levels by81percent.Combustionofpetroleumproducts contributes5,454millionmetrictonstotheprojected increasefrom2002,coal5,353millionmetrictons, andnaturalgas3,540millionmetrictons(Figure68).

Althoughcoaluseisprojectedtogrowataslowerrate thannaturalgasuseovertheprojectionperiod,coalisa morecarbon-intensivefuelthannaturalgas.Asaresult, theincrementincarbondioxideemissionsfromcoal combustionislargerthantheincrementinemissions

from natural gas.Thematuremarketeconomies,forthemostpart,aregrowingmoreslowlythantheemergingeconomies,and theirgrowthtendstobeinlessenergy-intensivesectors.

Asaresult,carbondioxideemissionsfromthemature marketeconomiesareprojectedtogrowby1.1percent peryearfrom2002to2025,absentbindingconstraints (Figure69andTable10).EmissionsfromNorthAmerica areprojectedtogrowthemostrapidlyamongthe maturemarketregions,by1.5percentperyear.North Americasaverageannualincreaseingrossdomestic product(GDP)is3.1percentovertheforecasthorizon, andthatstrongeconomicgrowth,combinedwithprojectedincreasesinpopulation,drivesthedemandforfossilfuelsandthustheprojectedincreaseincarbon

dioxide emissions.IncontrasttoNorthAmerica,WesternEuropeandmaturemarketAsiaareprojectedtohavefairlymodest growthinGDP(2.0and1.8percentperyear,respec

-tively)andeitherflatordecliningpopulationnumbersovertheforecast.Thus,onlylimitedgrowthindemand forenergyisprojectedforthoseregions,leadingto slowergrowthinemissions.ForWesternEurope,car

-bondioxideemissionsareprojectedtogrowby0.5per

-centperyearonaveragefrom2002to2025,andformaturemarketAsiatheprojectedaverageannual

increase in emissions is 0.6 percent.TheeconomiccollapseofthetransitionaleconomiesofEasternEuropeandtheformerSovietUnion(EE/FSU) dampenedthegrowthofcarbondioxideemissions worldwidebetween1990and2002.Inthe IEO2005 refer-encecase,carbondioxideemissionsintheEE/FSUregionareprojectedtoincreaseonaverageby1.5per

-centperyear,to3,937millionmetrictonsin2015and4,386millionmetrictonsin2025(Figure70).Thetransi-tionaleconomiesaredominatedbyRussia,theregions largesteconomy,whichaccountsfor51percentofits energyconsumptionand45percentofrelatedcarbon

dioxide emissions.AlthoughGDPgrowthintheEE/FSUregionispro-jectedtoaverage4.4percentperyearfrom2002to2025, improvementsinenergyinfrastructureareexpectedto keepthegrowthinenergydemandatanannualaverage of1.6percent.Inaddition,anincreaseinnaturalgasasa shareoftotalenergyproductionandadropincoals 78 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005197019801990200220152025 0 10 20 30 40 50BillionMetricTonsHistoryProjectionsOilNaturalGas CoalTotal Figure 68. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).199020022010201520202025 0 5 10 15 20BillionMetricTonsNorthAmericaWesternEuropeMatureMarketAsia Figure 69. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Mature Market Economies, 1990-2025 Sources:1990and2002:EnergyInformationAdministration (EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.

gov/iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

shareareexpectedtolowerthecarbonintensityofenergysupplyintheregionandkeepcarbondioxide emissionsinthetransitionaleconomieswellbelowtheir

1990 level of 4,894 million metric tons.Fortheworldsemergingeconomies,thereferencecaseprojectsstrongeconomicgrowthdrivenlargelybythe energy-intensiveindustrialandtransportationsectors.

Accordingly,carbondioxideemissionsintheemerging economiesareprojectedtogrowattwicetheratepro

-jectedforthetransitionaleconomiesandalmostthreetimestherateforthematuremarketeconomies,averag

-ing3.2percentperyearfrom2002to2025.Themostrapidincreasesincarbondioxideemissionsarepro

-jected for the nations of emerging Asia (Figure 71).

Carbon Dioxide IntensityWorldcarbondioxideintensityhasimproved(de

-creased)substantiallyoverthepastthreedecades,fall

-ingfrom853metrictonspermillion2000U.S.dollarsofGDPin1970to517metrictonspermilliondollarsin 2002.Althoughthepaceofimprovementinemissions intensityisexpectedtobesloweroverthe2002to2025 periodthanoverthepastthreedecades,acontinuing declineinintensityisprojectedinthereferencecase,to 422metrictonspermilliondollarsin2015and344metric

tons per million dollars in 2025.Onaregionalbasis,themostrapidratesofimprovementincarbondioxideintensityareprojectedforthetransi

-tionaleconomiesoftheEE/FSUandfortheemerging Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 79199020022010201520202025 0 2 4 6 8BillionMetricTonsFormerSovietUnionEasternEuropeHistoryProjections Figure 70. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Transitional Economies, 1990-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).199020022010201520202025 0 5 10 15 20 25BillionMetricTonsEmergingAsiaMiddleEastAfricaCentralandSouthAmericaHistoryProjections Figure 71. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Emerging Economies, 1990-2025 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/

iea/.Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal Energy Markets (2005).

Table 10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons)

RegionHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change1990200220102015202020251990-20022002-2025Mature Market Economies. . . .10,46511,87713,08013,74514,39215,1831.11.1North America. . . . . . . . . . . . . .5,7696,7017,6748,2048,7599,3791.31.5 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .3,4133,5493,6743,7613,8123,9520.30.5 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . .1,2841,6271,7311,7801,8221,8522.00.6Transitional Economies. . . . . .4,8943,1243,6433,9374,1514,386-3.71.5 Emerging Economies. . . . . . . .6,1019,40813,47815,60217,48019,2223.73.2Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,8906,2059,30610,86312,26313,5404.03.5 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8451,3611,7611,9752,1632,3524.12.4 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6558541,1221,2831,4151,5242.22.5 Central and South America. . . .7119881,2891,4801,6391,8062.82.7Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21,46024,40930,20133,28436,02338,7901.12.0 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

economiesofChinaandIndia.IntheFSU,economicrecoveryfromtheupheavalofthe1990sisexpectedto continuethroughouttheforecast.TheFSUnationsare alsoexpectedtoreplaceold,inefficientcapitalstockas

economic recovery progresses.TheEasternEuropeannationsbegantheireconomicrecoverymuchearlierthanthenationsoftheFSU.Asa resultofstronginvestmentinimprovingtheefficiency ofenergyuseamongEasternEuropeancountriesanda pushtoincreasetheuseofnaturalgas,carbondioxide intensityfellbymorethan43percentinEasternEurope between1990and2002,ascomparedwithanincreaseof almost4percentinRussiaandadecreaseof27percentin theotherFSUnations.Improvementincarbondioxide intensityinEasternEuropeisprojectedtocontinueover theprojectionperiod,atanaveragerateof2.6percent

per year (Table 11).EmergingAsiaisexpectedtoseefairlyrapidimprove

-mentincarbondioxideintensityoverthe2002-2025period,primarilyasaresultofrapideconomicgrowth ratherthanaswitchtolesscarbon-intensivefuels.China andIndia,inparticular,areexpectedtoremainheavilyreliantonfossilfuels,especiallycoal,inthe IEO2005 ref-erencecase,buttheircombinedannualGDPgrowthisprojectedtoaverage5.9percent,comparedwithan expected3.9-percentannualrateofincreaseinfossilfuel useovertheprojectionperiod.Chinascarbondioxide intensityisexpectedtodecreaseby2.1percentperyear onaveragebetween2002and2025andIndiasby2.4

percent per year.Ratesofimprovementincarbondioxideintensitycouldvaryconsiderablyinthefuture,basedontechnological advances,governmentpolicyinitiatives,andeconomic growthrates.Inthe IEO2005referencecase,worldcar

-bondioxideintensityisprojectedtofallfrom517metrictonspermillion2000dollarsofGDPin2002to344met

-rictonspermilliondollarsin2025;however,ifworldeconomicgrowthexpandstothelevelsprojectedinthe

IEO2005higheconomicgrowthcase,carbondioxideintensitycouldfallmorequickly,to325metrictonsper milliondollarsin2025.Incontrast,iftheworldeconomy expandsmoreslowly,asintheloweconomicgrowth case,carbondioxideintensitycoulddeclinetoapro-

jected 383 metric tons per million dollars in 2025.

80 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Table 11. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1970-2025 (Metric Tons per Million 2000 U.S. Dollars of Gross Domestic Product)

RegionHistoryProjections Average Annual Percent Change19701980199020022010201520202025 1990-2002 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North AmericaUnited States. . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,117917701571501459423393-2.1-1.6 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,046883691612562527495481-1.7-1.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3514054523773403172862550.2-1.7Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .695624471377333307281264-1.9-1.5

Mature Market AsiaJapan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .627497348359310291274259-1.7-1.4 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . .1,094715702721667621583544-1.3-1.2 Transitional EconomiesRussia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8378978208506355685044450.0-2.8 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,2111,2101,8431,3469268016826020.3-3.4 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .1,4541,4451,198679549482422372-2.3-2.6 Emerging EconomiesAsia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .890766637470434389343300-2.0-1.9China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,5601,9431,252605570500436375-4.4-2.1 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2863123463242722422121850.4-2.4 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .791868698680555515484454-0.5-1.7Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5065668949518337616876212.0-1.8 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5225426095955495184774310.4-1.4 Central and South America. . . .481409408414407383347314-0.5-1.2Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .853753649517461422381344-1.6-1.8 Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

Kyoto Protocol Case Modeling ApproachUndertheKyotoProtocol,participatingAnnexInationsarerequiredtoreduceorlimitemissionsofcarbondiox

-ideandothergreenhousegasesoverthefirstcommit

-mentperiod(January2008toDecember2012)toalevelthatwasdeterminedaspartofthenegotiationprocess.

Theyear1990wasusedasthebaseyearformostcoun

-tries,althoughsomewereallowedtouseotheryears.

17Tofulfilltheirobligationsunderthetreaty,theAnnexIcountriesmustlimittheiremissionsoverthe5-year commitmentperiodtoanannualaveragethatisator belowtheircommitmentgoals.BecausetheSAGE modelusedtogenerate IEO2005forecastsprojectsin5-yearincrements,2010isusedasthebasisyearfor

achieving commitments in the first period.

18TheSAGEmodelcomprises15regions.IntheKyoto Protocolcase,themodelregionsaffectedbythetreaty areCanada,Japan,WesternEurope,EasternEurope, andtheFSU.AlthoughNewZealandhasratifiedthe Protocolandintendstohonorthetermsofthetreaty, Australiahasnot.InSAGE,NewZealandandAustralia aretreatedasasingleentity;andAustraliasenergyuse farexceedsNewZealands.Therefore,projectionsfor Australia/NewZealandarenotincludedintheresults

of the Kyoto Protocol case.IntheformulationoftheKyotoProtocolcase,assump-tionsweremadeabouthowtheaffectedregionswould achievetheirreductions,basedwheneverpossibleon officialgovernmentstatements.Forinstance,theEuro-peanUnion(EU)hasstatedthatmostofitsgreen

-housegasemissionsreductionsmustbeachieveddomestically.TheKyotoProtocolcasetherefore assumesthat50percentoftheaggregateemission reductionforWesternEuropewillbemetbydomestic reductions,asopposedtousingtheinternationalmarket mechanismsallowedundertheProtocol(seeboxon

page 83).BothJapanandCanadahavehigherdomesticreductioncoststhanWesternEurope,andneithercountryhas announceditsintentionsonthespecificshareofreduc

-tionsthatmustbereachedthroughdomesticactions.IntheKyotoProtocolcase,bothcountriesareassumedto achieve25percentoftheirtotalreductionsdomestically.Inthe IEO2005KyotoProtocolcase,acountryorregionisfirstrequiredtoachieveitsdomesticreductiongoal.

Afterthedomesticrequirementhasbeenmet,thecoun

-tryorregionisfreetoseekothermeansofmeetingitsoverallreductiongoalforexample,bytradingcarbon permitsinternationally.InSAGE,theshadowpriceof reducingcarbondioxideemissionsby1metrictoninagivencountryorregionisusedtodeterminethepricethatthecountryorregionwouldbewillingtopayforthe nextadditionalreductionof1metricton.Ifthepriceofa carbonpermittradedinternationallyexceedsthe shadowpriceofthedomesticreduction,thenthecoun

-tryorregionwouldbebetteroffachievingthatreduc

-tiondomestically.Ifthepriceofapurchasedpermitislessthantheshadowprice,thenthecountryorregion

would be expected to choose the trading option.UnlikethematuremarketeconomiesthathaveratifiedtheKyotoProtocol,theEE/FSUtransitionaleconomies havereportedestimatedemissionsthatarebelowtheir Kyotogoallevels.Overtheforecastperiodthecredits theyprovidewouldbeenoughtosatisfyalltheother AnnexIcountriesdemandforreductionsoncetheir domesticgoalsaremet.Thecreditsavailablefromthe EE/FSUcountrieshavenodirectcosts,becausetheydo notrequireanyactionstobetaken.Underthemodel structureofperfectcompetition,priceequalscost;how

-ever,atransactioncostof$10pertonwasimposedintheSAGEmodelinordertoderiveapricegreaterthanzero.

SummaryTheKyotoProtocolcaseassumesthatenergyusewillnotvaryfromthereferencecaseforecastforAnnexI countriesthatarenotexpectedtoparticipateinthe treaty(theUnitedStatesandAustralia,forexample)or forcountriesthatarenotrequiredtomakereductions accordingtothetermsofthetreaty(ChinaandIndia,for example).Asaresult,onlytheprojectionsforenergyuse intheAnnexInationscommittedtoparticipatinginthe KyotoProtocolarechangedintheKyotoProtocolcase.

FortheparticipatingAnnexIgroup,totalenergy demandintheKyotoProtocolcaseisprojectedtobe3 quadrillionBtulowerthaninthereferencecasein2010, andalmost4quadrillionBtulowerin2025,assuming thattheKyototargetsremainconstantovertheentire

forecast period (Table 12).IntheKyotoProtocolcase,energy-relatedcarbondiox

-ideemissionsintheparticipatingnationsareprojectedtobe402millionmetrictonslowerthaninthereference casein2010and593millionmetrictonslowerin2025.

TotalcoaluseamongtheparticipatingAnnexInations in2025isprojectedtobeabout18percentlowerthanin thereferencecasein2025,andthecarbondioxideemis

-sionsassociatedwiththeircoaluseareprojectedtobenearly21percentlowerthaninthereferencecase,pri

-marilybecauseoftheexpectedpenetrationofcarbonsequestrationtechnologiesinWesternEurope.These technologiessequester90percentoftheemissionsfrom coal-firedgeneration.Thepenetrationofthesequestra

-tiontechnologyalsolimitsthepotentialforrenewables development.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 81 17Thecountriesusingabaseyearotherthan1990areBulgaria(1988),Hungary(1985-87),Poland(1988),andRomania(1989).

18FordetailedassumptionsintheKyotoProtocolcase,seeAppendixG.

Totaloilconsumptionfortheparticipatingnationsisalmost2quadrillionBtulowerintheKyotoProtocol casein2025,andtheemissionsassociatedwiththeiroil useare143millionmetrictonslower.Intheshortterm, naturalgasisexpectedtodisplacecoaluseamongthe participatingAnnexInations,becausenaturalgasis cleanerthancoalandhasaneconomicadvantageover nuclearandrenewableenergysourcesthatproduceno netcarbondioxideemissions.Inthelongerterm,asthe marginalcostsofcarbondioxidereductionsincrease, naturalgasbecomeslessattractivethanthenon-fossil fuels,especiallynuclearpower,whichisprojectedto begintodisplacenaturalgasby2025.Theprojectionfor naturalgasconsumptionintheKyotoProtocolcaseis2.8 quadrillionBtuhigherthanthereferencecaseprojection in2010and1.7quadrillionBtuin2025,whennon-fossil fueluseisprojectedtobe1.4quadrillionBtuhigherin

the Kyoto Protocol case than in the reference case.TheprojectedpenetrationofrenewablefuelsintheenergymarketsofparticipatingAnnexIcountriesis lowerintheKyotoProtocolcasethaninthereference case,foranumberofreasons.Electricitygeneration fromnuclearpoweris1.9percenthigherintheKyoto Protocolcasethaninthereferencecasein2010and12.5 percenthigherin2025;andtotalenergyuseis1.8per-centlowerin2010and1.7percentlowerin2025.Asa result,eventhoughgenerationfromnon-fossilfuels makesupalargershareoftotalenergyconsumptionin theKyotoProtocolcasethaninthereferencecase, renewable generation is lower.

Regional Projections CanadaCanadaistheonlyAnnexIcountryinNorthAmericathathasratifiedtheKyotoProtocol.Itsgoalistoreduce carbondioxideemissionsto6percentbelow1990levels, toatotalofabout444millionmetrictonsin2010,or 35percentbelowthe IEO2005referencecaseprojectionof681millionmetrictons.Asindicatedabove,itis assumedthat59.3millionmetrictons(25percent)ofthecarbondioxideemissionreductionsinCanadawillbemetthroughdomesticactions,and177.8millionmetric tons(75percent)willbemetthroughtheProtocolsmar

-ket mechanisms.InApril2005,Canadaunveileditsplanforcompliance,basedonmultipleapproaches.Theplanincludesbind

-ingconstraintsonthecountryselectricpowersectorandlarge-scaleindustrialemitters,subsidiesforwind power,apartnershipfundbetweengovernmentand industry,soilmanagementgoals,andprogramsincon

-sumerawarenessandvoluntaryreductionsbyautomakers.TheCanadiangovernmentalsohasbud

-geted$3.2billionto$4.0billionforpurchasesofcarbon credits, depending on the permit price [

1].TheKyotoProtocolcaseprojectsthat,atthe25-percentdomesticlevel,themarginalcostforemissionreduc

-tionsfromdomesticsourcesinCanadawillbearound$26permetrictonofcarbondioxidein2010and,assum

-ingthatconstraintsareheldconstantafter2012,about$36permetrictonin2025.Canadasenergydemandin 2010isprojectedtobe0.3quadrillionBtu(1.8percent) lowerintheKyotoProtocolcasethaninthe IEO2005 ref-erencecase,anditsenergy-relatedcarbondioxideemis-sionsin2010areprojectedtobe59millionmetrictons (8.7percent)lower(Table13).In2025,itsprojected energydemandis0.5quadrillionBtubelowtherefer-encecaselevel(assumingthattheKyotogoalsforCan-adawillnotchangeovertheforecastperiod),andits energy-relatedcarbondioxideemissionsare91million

metric tons lower than in the reference case.Canadascoalconsumptionandassociatedcarbondiox

-ideemissionsareprojectedtobeabout41percentlowerin2010and55percentlowerin2025intheKyotoProto

-colcasethaninthereferencecase.Emissionsassociatedwithoilconsumptionareprojectedtobeaboutthesame inthetwocasesin2025,andemissionsfromnaturalgas useareprojectedtobe5.2percenthigherin2010and 11.6percenthigherin2025.Canadasconsumptionof non-fossilenergyin2025isprojectedtobe0.9percent 82 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Table 12. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Participating Annex I Countries in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 FuelEnergy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons)2010202520102025 Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol CaseOil. . . . . . . . . .58.156.863.261.43,8033,7194,1423,998 Natural Gas. . .54.957.671.373.12,8963,0463,7653,863 Coal. . . . . . . . .27.022.126.721.92,5042,0362,4721,943 Nuclear. . . . . .17.317.718.320.6 Renewables. . .14.414.417.816.9 Total. . . . . . .171.7168.6197.3193.89,2038,80110,3869,793 Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

higherintheKyotoProtocolcasethaninthereference case.Western EuropeThecountriesofWesternEuropehaveratifiedtheKyoto Protocolindividually,andtheEUhasadoptedagoalof reducingitsmembercountriesaggregatecarbondiox

-ideemissionsto8percentbelowtheir1990level,ortoanaverageof3,123millionmetrictonsperyearduringthe firstcommitmentperiod.Thatgoal,whichisabout15 percentbelowthe2010projectioninthe IEO2005 refer-encecase,wouldrequireareductionof545millionmetrictonsfromthereferencecaselevel,50percentofwhich(273millionmetrictons)isassumedtobemet

through domestic programs.TheEUhasdevelopeditsownplanforemissionstrad

-inginthe2005to2007period,inpreparationforthefirstKyotocommitmentperiodin2008.TheEUGreenhouse GasEmissionTradingScheme(EUETS)allocatesemis

-sionstomorethan12,000specificinstallationsacross25membercountriesandrequiresreductionsorpermitsto meetthoseallocatedgoals;however,therehavebeen somemixedmessagescomingoutoftheEUinthe Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 83 Market Mechanisms Under the Kyoto ProtocolInordertohelpparticipatingcountriesmeettheirgoals,theKyotoProtocolincludesmarketmechanisms thataredesignedtoallowsomeflexibilityinreaching reductiontargets.Thethreeprimarymarketmecha

-nisms are described below.CleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM):TheCDMisdesignedtopromoteparticipationbyemergingecono-miesinprojectsthatleadtocertifiedandverifiable emissionsreductions.ItallowsAnnexIcountriesto investinemissionsreductionprojectsinnon-AnnexI countriesandapplycreditsreceivedforthoseprojects towardmeetingtheircommitmentgoals.Currently, CDMreductionsachievedbetween2000and2012may beusedtomeetrequirementsinthefirstcommitment

period, 2008 to 2012.SeveralrecentstudieshaveestimatedthattheaverageannualdemandforCDMCertifiedEmissionsReduc

-tions(CERs)willbebetween50and500millionmetrictons,andthatthecostofaCERwillbebetween$5and

$15permetricton.

aEmissionreductionsin2010of400millionmetrictonscarbondioxideequivalentwould requireannualinvestmentsof$10billion.Forrefer

-ence,annualforeigndirectinvestmentinemergingeconomiesbetween1997and2002averaged$140bil

-lion, banditisestimatedthattheemergingeconomieswillneedatotalof$192billionannuallyinenergy

investments between 2001 and 2010.Finally,CDMprojectsgenerallyrequirealeadtimeof4to5yearstobeginreceivingcredits.Becauseofrisksto boththebuyersandsellersofCERsderivedfromCDM projectsandtheabundanceofexcessemissionscred

-itsso-calledhotairthatcouldbesoldinterna

-tionallyovertheforecastperiod,the IEO2005 KyotoProtocolcasedoesnotexplicitlyincludeCDMprojects.However,CDMprojectsserveasamitigatingfactortopreventthecountriesinpossessionofhotaircredits fromexercisingmonopolypower,sinceinmanycases CDMprojectswouldofferthebestalternativetoemis

-sionstradingafterparticipatingcountrieshavemet their domestic goals.EmissionsTrading:Thismarketmechanismallowsemitterswhoareinanadvantageouspositionwith regardtoemissionsreductions(asmostoftheEE/FSU countriescurrentlyare)tomakefurtherreductions belowtheirtargetlevelsandsellthedifferencetoemit-terswhosedomesticreductioncostsarerelatively high.Intheory,suchtradingwouldallowtheneces-saryemissionreductiontobeachievedintheaggregate atthelowestpossiblecost,regardlessofwherethey takeplace.Indeed,RussiaandUkrainecouldintheory meetalltherequiredreductionsofAnnexBcountries.

cAfterdomesticemissionsreductiongoalsareachieved, the IEO2005KyotoProtocolcaseassumesthataddi

-tionalreductionswillbeachievedbyemissions trading.JointImplementation(JI):ThismarketmechanismissimilartotheCDM,exceptthatJIprojectswould involveonlytheAnnexBcountries,andonlyreduc

-tionsachievedduringthe2008-2012commitmentperiodmaybeused.BecausetheSAGEmodelaggre

-gatesalltheWesternEuropeancountriesintooneregion,JIisimplicitintheprojectionsforWestern Europe.Incontrast,becauseCanadaandJapanarerep

-resentedassingleregionsinSAGE,eachmustachieveitsdomesticgoals(inthemodelingprocess)independ

-entlyofJIprojects.AswithCDMprojects,the IEO2005KyotoProtocolcaseassumesthatemissionstrading willbetheleast-costalternativetoreductionsonce

domestic goals are achieved.

aE.Haites,EstimatingtheMarketPotentialfortheCleanDevelopmentMechanism:ReviewofModelsandLessonsLearned.PreparedfortheWorldBankCarbonFinanceBusinessPCF plusResearchProgram,theInternationalEnergyAgency,andtheInternationalEmissions Trading Association (Washington DC: PCF plus Report 19, June 2004), p. v, web site www.iea.org/textbase/papers/2004/cdm.pdf.

b E. Haites, Estimating the Market Potential for the Clean Development Mechanism: Review of Models and Lessons Learned , p. iv.c Annex B countries are the mature market economies that are part of Annex I, excluding the transitional economies.

monthssincetheEUETSwasimplemented.Earlierindi

-cationswerethattheEUwantedtomeetitsKyotogoalswithasignificantelementoftheir[reduction]efforts comingfromdomesticcuts[

2],butrecentanalysishasindicatedthatthecostofachievingdomesticreductions incountriessuchastheUnitedKingdommayhavebeen

underestimated [

3].The IEO2005KyotoProtocolcaseassumesthat50per

-centoftheemissionreductionsinWesternEuropewillbebasedondomesticactions,andthecostprojections arehighlysensitivetothatassumption.Atthe50-percentdomesticreductionlevel,thecostofreducing carbondioxideemissionsintheregionisprojectedtobe

$48permetrictonin2010,risingto$64permetrictonin 2025.WesternEuropestotalprojectedenergydemand is2.2quadrillionBtulowerintheKyotoProtocolcase thaninthereferencecasein2010and2.8quadrillionBtu lowerin2025(Table14).Energy-relatedcarbondioxide emissionsareprojectedtobe273millionmetrictons lowerthaninthereferencecasein2010and415million

metric tons lower in 2025.WesternEuropescoalconsumptionisprojectedtobe46percentlowerin2010intheKyotoProtocolcasethanin thereferencecase,andthecarbondioxideemissionsassociatedwithitscoaluseareprojectedtobe45percentlower.In2025,however,whencoaluseinWestern Europeisprojectedtobe47percentlowerthanintheref

-erencecase,coal-relatedemissionsareprojectedtobe58percentlower,becausetechnologiesbecomeavailablein WesternEuropeby2025thatwillallow90percentofthe carbondioxideemissionsassociatedwithcoalcombus

-tiontobecapturedandsequestered.Oilconsumptionandrelatedemissionsareprojectedtobeabout5percent lowerintheKyotoProtocolcasein2025;naturalgascon

-sumptionandassociatedemissionsareprojectedtobealmost7percenthigherin2025;andconsumptionof non-fossilfuelsisprojectedtobe2.4percenthigherthan

in the reference case in 2025.

JapanJapansgoalforreducingcarbondioxideemissions undertheKyotoProtocolisestimatedat930million metrictons,or6percentbelowits1990emissionslevel.

Thattargetrepresentsareductionofabout280million metrictonsor23percentfromthe IEO2005 referencecaseprojectionfor2010.If25percentofthegoalistobe metdomestically,energy-relatedcarbondioxideemis-sionswillhavetobecutby70.1millionmetrictonsfrom thereferencecaseprojectionin2010,withtheremaining 84 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Table 13. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Canada in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 FuelEnergy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons)2010202520102025 Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol CaseOil. . . . . . . . . .4.94.95.55.5306305344341 Natural Gas. . .4.04.24.85.4210220253282 Coal. . . . . . . . .1.81.12.31.01669721093 Nuclear. . . . . .1.21.21.21.2 Renewables. . .3.83.95.15.1 Total. . . . . . .15.615.318.818.3681622807716 Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table 14. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Western Europe in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 FuelEnergy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons)2010202520102025 Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol CaseOil. . . . . . . . . .29.228.331.029.51,9511,9012,0741,967 Natural Gas. . .17.720.122.924.59341,0661,2101,290 Coal. . . . . . . . .8.24.56.93.6783428661281 Nuclear. . . . . .9.09.37.89.0 Renewables. . .6.15.97.46.6 Total. . . . . . .70.268.076.173.33,6683,3953,9523,537 Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

reductionof210.4millionmetrictonsaccomplishedthroughpurchasesofemissionspermits.Inthe IEO2005KyotoProtocolcase,Japansdomesticeffortisprojected toyieldmarginalcostsof$49permetrictonofcarbon

dioxide in 2010 and $43 per metric ton in 2025.Japansenergydemandin2010isprojectedtobe0.8quadrillionBtulowerintheKyotoProtocolcasethanin thereferencecase(Table15).Assumingthatthecoun

-trysgoalsforthefirstcommitmentperiodremaininplaceatthesamelevelthrough2025,itstotalenergy demandin2025isprojectedtobe0.5quadrillionBtu lowerthaninthereferencecase,anditsenergy-related carbondioxideemissionsareprojectedtobe70million metrictonslowerthanthereferencecaseprojectionin

2010 and 78 million metric tons lower in 2025.Japanscoalconsumptionisprojectedtobe7.5percentlowerin2025intheKyotoProtocolcasethanintherefer

-encecase,withasmallerreduction(3.6percent)pro

-jectedforoilconsumptionrelativetothereferencecaseprojectionin2025.Becausenaturalgasisexpectedtobe usedasasubstituteforcoalintheshortruntohelpJapan reachitsKyotogoal,emissionsassociatedwithnatural gasconsumptionareprojectedtobe4.1percenthigher intheKyotoProtocolcasethaninthereferencecasein

2010.InMarch2005,aproposedfossilfueltaxwasstoppedbyagovernmentpanelchairedbyPrimeMinisterJunichiro Koizumi[4].Currently,theJapaneseplancallsforvol

-untaryindustryeffortsasthecornerstoneoftheplantomeetitsgoalsinthefirstcommitmentperiod.Ashrink

-ingpopulationisexpectedtohelpJapanmeetitsgoalsin later years.

References Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 85 Table 15. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Japan in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 FuelEnergy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons)2010202520102025 Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol Case Reference Case Kyoto Protocol CaseOil. . . . . . . . . .10.910.411.010.6657623662628 Natural Gas. . .3.23.33.93.8167174208198 Coal. . . . . . . . .4.33.84.13.8386343372338 Nuclear. . . . . .3.33.34.04.4 Renewables. . .1.21.21.71.6 Total. . . . . . .22.922.124.724.21,2111,1411,2421,164 Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).1.C.Holly,CanadaUnveilsKyotoCompliance Plan,TheEnergyDaily,Vol.33,No.74(April20,2005),pp.1and4;andGovernmentofCanada, Pro-jectGreen:MovingForwardonClimateChange(Ottawa,Canada,April2005),websitewww.

climatechange.gc.ca/kyoto_commitments/

report_e.pdf.2.UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,PartiestotheConvention,website

http://unfccc.int/parties_and_observers/parties/

items/2352.php.3.WorldMarketsResearchCentre,UKEnergyPricesToRiseMoreThanEurope(September16,2004),

web site www.worldmarketsanalysis.com.4.A.Mollet,PolicyUpdate:Japan,WorldFuels Today (March 31, 2005), p. 2.

Appendix A Reference Case Projections:

World Energy Consumption

Gross Domestic Product

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

World Population

Table A1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)ReferenceCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 89 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.9115.2117.7134.2143.6152.9162.11.4 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84.696.398.0110.6117.6125.1132.41.3Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.112.813.115.616.917.818.81.6 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.16.16.68.09.110.010.92.2Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .59.968.067.470.272.273.476.10.5 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .22.728.028.430.431.532.533.60.7Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18.321.922.022.923.624.124.70.5 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .4.56.16.57.57.98.48.81.4Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .183.6211.2213.5234.7247.3258.7271.81.1 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .60.942.042.449.753.957.261.01.6Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39.127.727.531.333.535.737.91.4 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.814.314.918.420.421.523.11.9Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.311.411.213.314.515.616.71.7Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .76.253.453.663.068.472.877.71.6 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51.584.788.4133.6155.8176.3196.73.5China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27.040.943.273.186.197.7109.24.1 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.013.814.019.622.726.029.33.3 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.88.08.410.611.812.713.52.1 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.721.922.930.335.139.944.62.9Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.120.922.028.732.435.638.92.5 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.312.512.716.719.321.423.42.7 Central and South America. . . . .14.521.221.226.830.433.236.12.3Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.88.48.610.211.613.215.12.5 Other Central/South America. . . .8.812.712.616.618.820.021.12.3Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .88.4139.2144.3205.8237.8266.6295.13.2Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .348.2403.9411.5503.5553.5598.1644.62.0 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.Notes:EnergytotalsincludenetimportsofcoalcokeandelectricitygeneratedfrombiomassintheUnitedStates.Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.Theelectricityportionofthenationalfuelconsumptionvaluesconsistsof generationfordomesticuseplusanadjustmentforelectricitytradebasedonafuelsshareoftotalgenerationintheexportingcoun

-try.Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,web

site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)AppendixA 90 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market Economies North AmericaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40.646.247.153.857.861.665.21.4 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23.227.328.232.235.838.739.61.5 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.723.823.927.127.929.633.21.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.98.99.09.89.910.09.90.4 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.59.09.511.312.113.014.11.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.9115.2117.7134.2143.6152.9162.11.4 Western EuropeOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25.928.928.629.229.730.031.00.3 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.715.215.417.719.520.922.91.8 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.48.78.68.27.87.36.9-1.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.49.19.29.08.98.47.8-0.7 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.56.05.56.16.46.87.41.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59.968.067.470.272.273.476.10.5 Mature Market AsiaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.413.013.113.413.813.914.10.3 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.54.04.04.45.15.35.71.6 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.26.56.87.47.47.67.60.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.03.13.03.33.43.74.01.2 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.61.51.61.71.92.02.31.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.728.028.430.431.532.533.60.7 Total Mature MarketOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79.088.088.896.4101.3105.5110.30.9 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35.446.547.554.360.364.968.21.6 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37.339.039.442.743.144.547.70.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.321.121.222.122.322.021.70.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.616.516.619.120.321.823.81.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183.6211.2213.5234.7247.3258.7271.81.1 Transitional EconomiesOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.011.911.413.113.914.815.71.4 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28.823.824.330.034.136.739.62.2 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.711.711.612.712.913.113.40.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.93.13.33.83.94.65.32.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.13.43.43.63.60.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76.253.453.663.068.472.877.71.6 Emerging Economies Emerging AsiaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.130.431.447.054.461.869.53.5 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.27.68.211.414.317.522.34.4 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28.139.941.562.672.881.186.83.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.82.03.84.85.76.55.3 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.24.95.48.89.510.211.63.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51.584.788.4133.6155.8176.3196.73.5 See notes at end of table.

Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Continued)(Quadrillion Btu)ReferenceCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 91 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Emerging Economies (Continued)

Middle EastOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.011.311.715.116.617.718.82.1 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.98.08.611.113.215.217.43.1 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.21.11.51.51.51.51.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.10.10.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.51.01.01.11.13.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.120.922.028.732.435.638.92.5 AfricaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.25.45.57.68.79.510.12.7 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.52.63.44.45.26.44.0 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.73.74.65.05.35.31.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.20.20.21.0 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.80.81.01.11.21.42.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.312.512.816.719.321.423.42.7 Central and South AmericaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.711.010.713.915.817.418.92.5 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.23.83.85.06.17.08.13.3 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.70.81.11.21.21.32.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.20.20.40.30.42.4 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.95.45.76.67.07.27.41.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.521.221.226.830.433.236.12.3 Total EmergingOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36.158.159.283.695.5106.3117.43.0 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.821.923.330.937.945.054.23.7 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32.445.647.169.880.489.195.03.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.12.22.34.35.56.37.15.0 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.011.512.417.318.619.821.52.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88.4139.2144.3205.8237.8266.6295.13.2 Total WorldOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .136.0158.0159.4193.1210.6226.6243.41.9 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75.092.295.2115.2132.4146.6162.12.3 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90.596.398.1125.2136.4146.8156.12.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.326.426.930.231.732.934.11.0 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.431.132.139.842.445.248.91.9Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .348.2403.9411.5503.5553.5598.1644.62.0Notes:EnergytotalsincludenetimportsofcoalcokeandelectricitygeneratedfrombiomassintheUnitedStates.Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.Theelectricityportionofthenationalfuelconsumptionvaluesconsistsof generationfordomesticuseplusanadjustmentforelectricitytradebasedonafuelsshareoftotalgenerationintheexportingcoun

-try.Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,web

site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table A3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Billion 2000 Dollars)AppendixA 92 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . .8,47811,77411,99715,56718,14221,05524,2853.1 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . .7,1139,89110,07513,08415,21617,63420,2923.1Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6849299611,2111,3781,5271,6752.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6819559621,2721,5481,8932,3183.9Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .7,2469,3149,41611,04412,25513,56314,9582.0 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . .3,2583,8913,9044,6915,1235,5305,9141.8Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,8403,2943,2843,9114,2404,5334,7921.7 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . .4195976217808839971,1222.6Total Mature Market. . . . . . . .18,98224,98025,31731,30235,51940,14845,1572.5 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . .3,3062,2742,3923,8274,6725,6276,7074.6Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,2411,5831,6572,5433,0193,5714,1924.1 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,0656917351,2831,6532,0562,5165.5Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .9141,0401,0681,5271,8632,2532,7024.1Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . .4,2203,3143,4605,3546,5357,8809,4094.4 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . .6,10812,45613,19621,46727,95335,72345,1105.5China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,8075,0875,4949,71613,00316,91921,6996.2 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,6843,0213,1605,0316,5248,43010,8075.5 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3356196629881,2091,3991,5923.9 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,2823,7283,8805,7327,2168,97511,0124.6Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9451,3651,4312,1132,5943,1473,7894.3 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,0751,3871,4342,0442,4762,9683,5334.0 Central and South America. . . .1,7442,4002,3883,1683,8704,7175,7533.9Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,0221,3441,3701,7832,1702,6383,2093.8 Other Central/South America. . .7221,0561,0181,3851,6992,0802,5444.1Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . .9,87117,60818,44928,79336,89246,55558,1855.1Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33,07345,90147,22765,44978,94794,582112,7523.9 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources:A.Heston,R.Summers,andB.Aten,PennWorldTableVersion6.1(CenterforInternationalComparisonsattheUni

-versityofPennsylvania,October2002),websitehttp://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt_index.php;GlobalInsight,Inc., WorldOverview,FirstQuarter2005(Lexington,MA,March2005);andEnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005

, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington DC, January 2005), Table A19.

Table A4. World Oil Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)ReferenceCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 93 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.523.723.827.229.231.132.91.4 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.019.619.722.524.225.827.31.4Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.02.12.32.52.52.61.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.02.02.32.52.83.01.8Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.514.013.814.114.314.414.90.3 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .6.16.46.36.56.66.76.80.3Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.35.45.35.35.45.45.30.0 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.81.01.01.21.31.41.51.6Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .39.144.143.947.750.152.254.61.0 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .8.44.34.14.74.95.25.51.3Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.42.72.63.03.13.33.41.3 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.01.61.51.81.81.92.01.3Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.71.41.41.61.81.92.11.7Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .10.05.75.56.36.77.27.61.4 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.714.715.122.726.329.833.63.5China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.34.95.29.210.712.314.24.5 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.22.22.23.13.74.24.93.5 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.02.12.22.62.82.92.91.3 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.15.55.67.99.210.411.63.2Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.85.55.77.38.08.69.22.1 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.62.73.74.34.64.92.7 Central and South America. . . . .3.85.45.26.87.88.59.32.5Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.22.22.52.83.23.72.3 Other Central/South America. . . .2.33.23.14.35.05.35.62.6Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .17.328.228.740.646.351.657.03.0Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66.578.078.294.6103.2111.0119.21.9 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,web

site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table A5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet)AppendixA 94 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.526.627.431.334.837.638.61.5 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19.222.223.025.628.330.430.91.3Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.42.93.03.94.34.64.72.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.41.51.82.22.63.03.0Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.114.915.017.319.020.422.41.8 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .2.63.83.84.24.85.15.41.6Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.72.73.03.43.63.81.5 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.81.11.11.21.41.41.61.7Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .35.245.246.252.858.763.166.41.6 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .25.020.821.325.629.031.033.32.0Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.314.414.616.217.919.520.71.5 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.76.46.89.411.111.612.62.7Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.12.72.64.04.65.25.83.5Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .28.123.523.929.633.636.239.12.2 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.07.27.810.613.316.320.74.3China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.51.11.22.63.44.26.57.8 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.90.91.41.82.32.85.1 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.70.81.21.41.61.93.7 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.04.64.95.46.88.29.52.9Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.77.68.310.612.614.516.63.1 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.42.32.43.14.14.96.04.0 Central and South America. . . . .2.03.53.64.65.66.57.53.3Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.40.50.91.31.72.16.8 Other Central/South America. . . .1.93.13.13.84.34.85.42.4Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .10.120.622.029.035.642.250.73.7Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73.489.392.2111.4127.9141.6156.22.3 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,web

site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table A6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Short Tons)ReferenceCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 95 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9721,1441,1521,3261,3751,4571,6291.5 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9041,0601,0661,2271,2711,3511,5051.5Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .597072788081991.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91514212425252.6Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .894572573544514486459-1.0 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .2333263413743733863860.5Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1261731791841811791770.0 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .1061531621901912072091.1Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .2,0992,0422,0672,2452,2612,3282,4740.8 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .8483963974504624714800.8Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4622422292832932922881.0 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3861541681671691791920.6Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5243843743843883903940.2Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .1,3727797718348508608740.5 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,5552,0332,1183,1963,7154,1384,4353.3China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,1241,3571,4222,3022,7043,0373,2423.6 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2564144215446146747362.5 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .497580971161301422.5 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1271881962532812983162.1Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6698841161171181161.4 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1521881862312492672671.6 Central and South America. . . . .273436485256592.2Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172222303336412.7 Other Central/South America. . . .101214182020181.2Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .1,7992,3532,4243,5924,1344,5794,8783.1Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5,2705,1745,2626,6707,2457,7678,2262.0 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.Notes:Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.Toconvertshorttonstometrictons,divideeach number in the table by 1.102.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,web

site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table A7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)AppendixA 96 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6498508609379539579520.4 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5777697808138268308300.3Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6973711141171171122.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .389101010100.2Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .703870876864854802752-0.7 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .1923032953193303513801.1Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1923032953193303513801.1 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0000000Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .1,5442,0242,0322,1202,1362,1102,0830.1 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .2012102242752793323992.5Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1151251341511531732182.1 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8685901241251601813.1Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54727989981051131.6Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .2562823023643764375122.3 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .881781943674645516205.2China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .01723721371622009.8 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6181867891231329.1 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .501071131691791851962.4 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .323640605981933.8Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0006666Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81112131415150.9 Central and South America. . . . .92119203533342.5Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21414142323242.3 Other Central/South America. . . .77561110102.9Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .1052092254065196056754.9Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,9052,5152,5602,8903,0323,1523,2701.1 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,web

site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table A8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)ReferenceCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 97 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.59.09.511.312.113.014.11.7 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.05.25.96.97.27.78.31.5Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.13.43.33.84.24.65.11.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.40.40.60.60.70.73.0Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.56.05.56.16.46.87.41.3 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .1.61.51.61.71.92.02.31.6Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.01.11.21.31.51.71.9 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.40.50.50.50.50.60.60.8Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .15.616.516.619.120.321.823.81.6 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .2.42.52.52.72.72.72.70.4Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.81.81.92.22.22.22.20.7 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.70.60.60.60.60.6-0.6Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.60.60.60.70.80.91.6Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.13.43.43.63.60.7 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.24.95.48.89.510.211.63.4China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.32.63.15.25.76.26.73.4 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.80.71.31.41.41.73.8 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.10.10.14.6 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.41.52.22.32.53.03.1Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.51.01.01.11.13.3 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.80.81.01.11.21.42.2 Central and South America. . . . .3.95.45.76.67.07.27.41.2Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.83.03.33.43.74.01.2 Other Central/South America. . . .1.72.62.73.43.53.53.51.2Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .8.011.512.417.318.619.821.52.4Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.431.132.139.842.445.248.91.9 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.Notes:Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.U.S.totalsincludenetelectricityimports,methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,web

site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table A9. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)AppendixA 98 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,3694,2474,3285,1935,6936,2086,7411.9 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,8273,5543,6514,2724,6435,0435,4701.8Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4355084876447137748282.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1071851902773373904433.8Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,0692,5512,5562,6132,7862,8723,0720.8 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .9301,1361,2021,2731,3581,4341,5061.0Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7659109711,0001,0601,1101,1540.8 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .1662262312732993243521.8Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .6,3687,9348,0869,0799,83710,51411,3191.5 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .1,4881,1311,1541,7942,0482,2542,4213.3Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9557697801,0431,1881,3231,4692.8 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5333633747508609329514.1Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4183893905406066637242.7Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .1,9061,5201,5442,3342,6542,9173,1453.1 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,2592,7112,9144,9095,8436,7237,5524.2China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5511,3021,4572,8013,3273,8164,2604.8 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2575095107739611,1501,3404.3 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .932472673814364805202.9 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3586536809551,1191,2781,4333.3Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2635475748619971,1061,2033.3 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2864104226227558679803.7 Central and South America. . . . .4637157351,0701,3141,5501,8184.0Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2293383524575636978644.0 Other Central/South America. . . .2343773836137518539554.0Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .2,2724,3834,6457,4628,90910,24611,5544.0Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10,54613,83614,27518,87521,40023,67726,0182.6 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,web

site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

TableA10.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyRegion,ReferenceCase,1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)ReferenceCaseProjectionsEnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 99 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............5,7696,6246,7017,6748,2048,7599,3791.5UnitedStates a...............4,9895,6925,7516,5616,9887,4617,9811.4 Canada.....................4735735886817267578071.4Mexico.....................3083593634324905415912.1WesternEurope..............3,4133,5853,5493,6743,7613,8123,9520.5MatureMarketAsia...........1,2841,6101,6271,7311,7801,8221,8520.6 Japan......................9901,1821,1791,2111,2321,2401,2420.2Australia/NewZealand.........2944294485205485826101.4TotalMatureMarket.........10,46511,81911,87713,08013,74514,39215,1831.1TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........3,7982,3932,3992,8043,0403,2013,3791.5Russia.....................2,3471,5531,5221,7321,8571,9712,0631.3 OtherFSU..................1,4528408771,0721,1831,2301,3171.8EasternEurope...............1,0957447268398989511,0061.4TotalTransitional............4,8943,1373,1243,6433,9374,1514,3861.5EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............3,8905,9676,2059,30610,86312,26313,5403.5 China......................2,2623,1763,3225,5366,5067,3738,1334.0 India.......................5831,0091,0251,3691,5811,7861,9942.9SouthKorea.................2344314515496236767232.1 OtherAsia..................8111,3511,4071,8532,1542,4282,6892.9MiddleEast..................8451,3111,3611,7611,9752,1632,3522.4Africa.......................6558408541,1221,2831,4151,5242.5 CentralandSouthAmerica.....7119989881,2891,4801,6391,8062.7Brazil......................2503433424335025836793.0 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....4616556468569791,0561,1282.5TotalEmerging.............6,1019,1169,40813,47815,60217,48019,2223.2TotalWorld...................21,46024,07224,40930,20133,28436,02338,7902.0 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.Note:TheU.S.numbersincludecarbondioxideemissionsattributabletorenewableenergysources.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

Table A11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Oil Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)AppendixA 100 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,6392,9832,9873,4263,6883,9314,1641.5 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,1782,4582,4572,8263,0373,2393,4361.5Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2222682743063233343441.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2392582562953283583851.8Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,7391,9331,9111,9511,9852,0032,0740.4 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .7688087968218418528620.3Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6556686576576656646620.0 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .1131401391641771882011.6Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .5,1455,7245,6956,1996,5156,7867,1001.0 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .1,2246075816676987367761.3Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7833783564124294644931.4 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4412292252552692732831.0Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2431971922222452652861.7Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .1,4688037738899431,0021,0621.4 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,1161,8861,9402,9223,3863,8504,3403.6China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3456386691,1931,3851,5991,8454.5 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1652782793904665426213.5 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1382362412843063183261.3 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4687337511,0551,2291,3921,5483.2Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5687818041,0371,1401,2201,2972.1 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3043693775235996536972.7 Central and South America. . . . .5417297129261,0531,1551,2592.5Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2102812753223564074652.3 Other Central/South America. . . .3304484376046977487942.6Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .2,5293,7643,8345,4086,1786,8787,5943.0Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9,14210,29210,30212,49613,63514,66515,7561.9 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,web

site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

TableA12.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsfromNaturalGasUsebyRegion,ReferenceCase,1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)ReferenceCaseProjectionsEnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 101 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............1,2071,4231,4701,6911,8802,0332,0831.5UnitedStates a...............1,0261,1891,2271,3801,5231,6391,6651.3 Canada.....................1271571602102342512532.0Mexico.....................5477831021231421653.0WesternEurope..............5148038129341,0291,1041,2101.8MatureMarketAsia...........1332092092342682803001.6 Japan......................891501471671872002081.5Australia/NewZealand.........445962678180921.7TotalMatureMarket.........1,8542,4362,4912,8593,1773,4163,5941.6TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........1,3521,1191,1471,3761,5611,6681,7912.0Russia.....................9287687768659541,0361,1051.5 OtherFSU..................4243513715126076326862.7EasternEurope...............1671391362092412713013.5TotalTransitional............1,5191,2581,2831,5851,8021,9402,0932.2EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............1674024346017549241,1764.4 China......................3166711632092594017.8 India.......................24464875961251525.1SouthKorea.................644486982961113.7 OtherAsia..................1062462672943664445122.9MiddleEast..................2054214575866968039163.1Africa.......................801301391782302773404.0 CentralandSouthAmerica.....1162022032653213704283.3Brazil......................6222657871111407.6 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....1101811772082342602882.1TotalEmerging.............5691,1561,2321,6302,0012,3752,8603.7TotalWorld...................3,9424,8495,0066,0746,9807,7318,5472.4 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

TableA13.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsfromCoalUsebyRegion,ReferenceCase,1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)AppendixA 102EnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............1,9232,2142,2472,5372,6162,7743,1101.4UnitedStates a...............1,7842,0422,0702,3352,4072,5612,8581.4 Canada.....................1231481541661691722101.4Mexico.....................152423363941422.6WesternEurope..............1,160849825783740699661-1.0MatureMarketAsia...........3835936226756716906890.4 Japan......................2453643753863803763720.0Australia/NewZealand.........1382292472892913143171.1TotalMatureMarket.........3,4653,6563,6943,9954,0264,1624,4590.8TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........1,2226676717617817968120.8Russia.....................6354083904564734714650.8 OtherFSU..................5872602813043083253470.9EasternEurope...............6854093974084124144190.2TotalTransitional............1,9071,0761,0681,1691,1931,2101,2310.6EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............2,6073,6793,8315,7846,7247,4888,0243.3 China......................1,8862,4722,5824,1814,9115,5145,8873.6 India.......................3946846989031,0191,1191,2222.5SouthKorea.................901521611962352632862.5 OtherAsia..................2373713895045595926292.1MiddleEast..................721101001381401401391.4Africa.......................2713403384214534854861.6 CentralandSouthAmerica.....546673981061141202.2Brazil......................344041545966742.6 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....202632444748461.6TotalEmerging.............3,0034,1964,3426,4417,4238,2278,7683.1TotalWorld...................8,3758,9289,10511,60412,64213,60014,4582.0 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

Table A14. World Population by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Millions)ReferenceCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 103 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3644174234574774975170.9 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2532862893103243373510.9Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .283131333435360.6 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .831001031131201251301.0Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .3763913923963973973970.1 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .1441501511531531521510.0Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124127127128127126123-0.1 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .202324252627280.7Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .8849599661,0061,0281,0471,0650.4 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .290289288283280277272-0.2Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .148145144138133129124-0.6 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1411441441451471481480.1Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122121121119118117115-0.2Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .412410408402398393387-0.2 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,7913,2883,3553,6583,8504,0224,1680.9China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,1551,2851,3001,3651,4021,4291,4450.5 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8461,0331,0591,1741,2461,3121,3691.1 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .434748495050500.2 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7469239491,0711,1521,2301,3041.4Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1932472552943223493751.7 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6228148449841,0851,1881,2921.9 Central and South America. . . . .3584284374815095345571.1Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1491741781932022102160.9 Other Central/South America. . . .2102542602883073243411.2Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .3,9654,7774,8915,4185,7656,0926,3921.2Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5,2616,1456,2666,8257,1917,5337,8441.0 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources:UnitedStates:EnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,website www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/.OtherCountries:UnitedNations,PopulationDivisionoftheDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsoftheUnitedNationsSecretariat,WorldPopulationProspects:2002RevisionandWorldUrbanizationProspects(NewYork,NY, July 11, 2003).

Appendix B High Economic Growth Case Projections:

World Energy Consumption

Gross Domestic Product

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Table B1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)HighEconomicGrowthCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 107 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.9115.2117.7138.4150.0160.8173.01.7 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84.696.398.0114.2123.1131.5141.41.6Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.112.813.116.017.618.720.01.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.16.16.68.29.410.511.72.5Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .59.968.067.471.574.376.980.70.8 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .22.728.028.431.032.634.035.61.0Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18.321.922.023.424.425.226.10.8 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .4.56.16.57.68.28.89.51.7Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .183.6211.2213.5241.0256.9271.7289.31.3 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .60.942.042.451.757.562.167.32.0Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39.127.727.532.735.938.941.81.8 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.814.314.919.021.523.225.52.4Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.311.411.213.815.416.918.52.2Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .76.253.453.665.572.879.085.82.1 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51.584.788.4139.8167.4194.7223.24.1China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27.040.943.276.392.2107.6123.54.7 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.013.814.020.324.128.232.53.7 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.88.08.411.212.814.215.52.7 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.721.922.931.938.344.851.53.6Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.120.922.030.134.939.344.13.1 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.312.512.717.420.623.426.13.2 Central and South America. . . . .14.521.221.228.132.435.739.62.8Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.88.48.610.612.214.016.22.8 Other Central/South America. . . .8.812.712.617.520.221.723.52.7Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .88.4139.2144.3215.3255.2293.0333.03.7Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .348.2403.9411.5521.7585.0643.7708.12.4 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.Notes:EnergytotalsincludenetimportsofcoalcokeandelectricitygeneratedfrombiomassintheUnitedStates.Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.Theelectricityportionofthenationalfuelconsumptionvaluesconsistsof generationfordomesticuseplusanadjustmentforelectricitytradebasedonafuelsshareoftotalgenerationintheexportingcoun

-try.Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)AppendixB 108 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market Economies North AmericaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40.646.247.156.661.566.371.21.8 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23.227.328.233.037.639.741.01.6 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.723.823.927.528.531.135.91.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.98.99.09.89.910.09.90.4 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.59.09.511.512.413.615.02.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.9115.2117.7138.4150.0160.8173.01.7 Western EuropeOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25.928.928.629.830.831.532.90.6 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.715.215.418.320.222.425.12.2 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.48.78.68.27.87.47.1-0.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.49.19.29.08.98.47.8-0.7 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.56.05.56.36.67.27.91.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59.968.067.471.574.376.980.70.8 Mature Market AsiaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.413.013.113.714.214.514.80.5 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.54.04.04.65.45.76.11.9 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.26.56.87.57.57.98.30.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.03.13.03.33.43.74.01.2 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.61.51.61.82.02.22.42.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.728.028.431.032.634.035.61.0 Total Mature MarketOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79.088.088.8100.1106.5112.4118.91.3 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35.446.547.555.963.367.872.21.8 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37.339.039.443.343.846.451.21.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.321.121.222.122.322.021.70.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.616.516.619.621.023.125.41.9Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183.6211.2213.5241.0256.9271.7289.31.3 Transitional EconomiesOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.011.911.413.714.916.317.71.9 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28.823.824.331.637.140.844.92.7 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.711.711.612.913.413.714.20.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.93.13.33.83.94.65.32.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.13.43.53.63.70.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76.253.453.665.572.879.085.82.1 Emerging Economies Emerging AsiaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.130.431.449.258.868.479.24.1 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.27.68.212.516.821.227.65.4 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28.139.941.565.477.588.697.53.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.82.03.84.85.76.55.3 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.24.95.48.89.510.712.43.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51.584.788.4139.8167.4194.7223.24.1 See notes at end of table.

Table B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu)HighEconomicGrowthCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 109 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Emerging Economies (Continued)

Middle EastOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.011.311.715.717.919.721.62.7 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.98.08.611.814.316.819.73.6 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.21.11.51.61.61.61.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.10.10.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.51.01.11.11.13.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.120.922.030.134.939.344.13.1 AfricaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.25.45.57.99.310.411.33.2 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.52.63.64.85.87.44.6 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.73.74.75.25.85.82.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.20.20.21.0 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.80.81.01.21.31.42.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.312.512.817.420.623.426.13.2 Central and South AmericaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.711.010.714.617.119.021.33.0 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.23.83.85.06.37.08.43.5 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.70.81.41.61.82.04.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.20.20.40.30.42.4 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.95.45.76.87.17.47.61.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.521.221.228.132.435.739.62.8 Total EmergingOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36.158.159.287.5103.1117.6133.43.6 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.821.923.332.942.150.963.14.4 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32.445.647.173.085.897.8106.93.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.12.22.34.25.46.37.05.0 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.011.512.417.518.820.522.52.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88.4139.2144.3215.3255.2293.0333.03.7 Total WorldOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .136.0158.0159.4201.3224.5246.2270.02.3 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75.092.295.2120.5142.5159.5180.22.8 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90.596.398.1129.3143.0157.9172.32.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.326.426.930.131.632.934.11.0 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.431.132.140.543.347.251.62.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .348.2403.9411.5521.7585.0643.7708.12.4Notes:EnergytotalsincludenetimportsofcoalcokeandelectricitygeneratedfrombiomassintheUnitedStates.Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.Theelectricityportionofthenationalfuelconsumptionvaluesconsistsof generationfordomesticuseplusanadjustmentforelectricitytradebasedonafuelsshareoftotalgenerationintheexportingcoun

-try.Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table B3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion 2000 Dollars)AppendixB 110 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . .8,47811,77411,99716,31119,35322,78426,9773.6 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . .7,1139,89110,07513,74016,26019,08922,5703.6Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6849299611,2551,4591,6541,8562.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6819559621,3161,6352,0412,5504.3Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .7,2469,3149,41611,45613,00114,71716,6022.5 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . .3,2583,8913,9044,8655,4366,0056,5732.3Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,8403,2943,2844,0574,5004,9255,3312.1 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . .4195976218089351,0801,2423.1Total Mature Market. . . . . . . .18,98224,98025,31732,63237,79043,50750,1523.0 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . .3,3062,2742,3924,2055,4596,9978,8815.9Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,2411,5831,6572,7123,3574,1435,0745.0 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,0656917351,4932,1022,8543,8077.4Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .9141,0401,0681,6322,0742,6133,2685.0Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . .4,2203,3143,4605,8377,5339,61012,1495.6 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . .6,10812,45613,19622,84130,90541,06953,9516.3China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,8075,0875,49410,31314,32719,37225,8347.0 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,6843,0213,1605,3577,2219,69812,9286.3 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3356196621,0541,3441,6231,9294.8 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,2823,7283,8806,1188,01410,37513,2605.5Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9451,3651,4312,2562,8843,6464,5755.2 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,0751,3871,4342,1842,7573,4454,2774.9 Central and South America. . . .1,7442,4002,3883,3934,3175,4836,9664.8Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,0221,3441,3701,9112,4233,0693,8894.6 Other Central/South America. . .7221,0561,0181,4821,8942,4143,0774.9Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . .9,87117,60818,44930,67440,86353,64369,7706.0Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33,07345,90147,22769,14486,186106,760132,0714.6 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources:A.Heston,R.Summers,andB.Aten,PennWorldTableVersion6.1(CenterforInternationalComparisonsattheUni

-versityofPennsylvania,October2002),websitehttp://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt_index.php;GlobalInsight,Inc., WorldOverview,FirstQuarter2005(Lexington,MA,March2005);andEnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005

,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem, run HM2005.D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/.

Table B4. World Oil Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)HighEconomicGrowthCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 111 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.523.723.828.531.133.536.01.8 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.019.619.723.825.827.930.01.8Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.02.12.42.62.72.81.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.02.02.32.62.93.22.1Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.514.013.814.414.815.215.90.6 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .6.16.46.36.66.97.07.10.5Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.35.45.35.45.55.65.60.2 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.81.01.01.21.31.41.61.9Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .39.144.143.949.552.855.759.01.3 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .8.44.34.14.95.35.76.21.8Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.42.72.63.13.33.63.91.8 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.01.61.51.82.02.12.31.8Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.71.41.41.71.92.12.42.3Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .10.05.75.56.67.27.98.61.9 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.714.715.123.828.433.138.34.1China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.34.95.29.611.413.516.15.1 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.22.22.23.23.94.65.44.0 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.02.12.22.73.03.23.41.9 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.15.55.68.410.111.713.43.9Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.85.55.77.68.79.610.52.7 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.62.73.94.65.15.53.2 Central and South America. . . . .3.85.45.27.28.49.310.43.0Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.22.22.73.03.54.12.8 Other Central/South America. . . .2.33.23.14.55.45.86.33.2Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .17.328.228.742.550.057.064.73.6Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66.578.078.298.6110.0120.6132.32.3 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table B5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet)AppendixB 112 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.526.627.432.136.638.639.91.6 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19.222.223.026.329.831.231.71.4Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.42.93.04.04.54.74.92.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.41.51.92.32.73.23.4Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.114.915.017.819.821.924.52.2 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .2.63.83.84.45.25.55.91.9Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.72.73.23.64.04.22.0 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.81.11.11.21.61.51.61.7Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .35.245.246.254.461.566.070.21.8 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .25.020.821.326.931.534.437.62.5Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.314.414.617.119.421.623.42.1 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.76.46.89.912.112.814.23.3Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.12.72.64.25.15.86.74.2Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .28.123.523.931.236.640.244.22.7 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.07.27.811.715.719.825.55.3China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.51.11.23.14.55.89.09.3 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.90.91.42.02.83.35.9 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.70.81.21.51.82.14.2 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.04.64.95.97.79.511.13.6Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.77.68.311.213.616.018.83.6 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.42.32.43.44.45.46.94.6 Central and South America. . . . .2.03.53.64.65.86.57.83.5Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.40.50.91.41.72.27.0 Other Central/South America. . . .1.93.13.13.84.44.85.62.6Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .10.120.622.030.939.547.759.04.4Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73.489.392.2116.5137.6153.9173.42.8 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table B6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Short Tons)HighEconomicGrowthCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 113 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9721,1441,1521,3471,4031,5241,7561.8 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9041,0601,0661,2461,2971,4051,6171.8Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5970727981941132.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91514222425262.7Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .894572573546518491468-0.9 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .2333263413803784044241.0Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1261731791861841831880.2 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .1061531621941952202361.6Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .2,0992,0422,0672,2732,2992,4182,6481.1 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .8483963974604794935101.1Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4622422292893043063061.3 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3861541681711751882040.9Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5243843743893974054170.5Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .1,3727797718508768989280.8 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,5552,0332,1183,3393,9544,5194,9743.8China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,1241,3571,4222,4022,8763,3253,6364.2 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2564144215666477148052.9 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4975801101361601833.7 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1271881962612953213502.6Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6698841191231251261.8 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1521881862342602882912.0 Central and South America. . . . .273436657184904.1Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172222404353614.5 Other Central/South America. . . .101214262830293.3Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .1,7992,3532,4243,7574,4075,0175,4813.6Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5,2705,1745,2626,8807,5828,3339,0572.4 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.Notes:Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.Toconvertshorttonstometrictons,divideeach number in the table by 1.102.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table B7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)AppendixB 114 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6498508609379539579520.4 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5777697808138268308300.3Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6973711141171171122.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .389101010100.2Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .703870876864854802752-0.7 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .1923032953193303513801.1Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1923032953193303513801.1 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0000000Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .1,5442,0242,0322,1202,1362,1102,0830.1 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .2012102242752793323992.5Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1151251341511531732182.1 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8685901241251601813.1Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54727989981051131.6Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .2562823023643764375122.3 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .881781943674645516205.2China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .01723721371622009.8 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6181867891231329.1 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .501071131691791851962.4 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .323640605981933.8Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0006666Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81112131415150.9 Central and South America. . . . .92119203533342.5Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21414142323242.3 Other Central/South America. . . .77561110102.9Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .1052092254065196056754.9Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,9052,5152,5602,8903,0323,1523,2701.1 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table B8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)HighEconomicGrowthCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 115 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.59.09.511.512.413.615.02.0 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.05.25.97.07.58.18.91.8Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.13.43.33.94.34.95.42.2 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.40.40.60.60.70.73.2Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.56.05.56.36.67.27.91.6 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .1.61.51.61.82.02.22.42.0Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.01.11.31.51.61.92.4 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.40.50.50.50.50.60.60.8Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .15.616.516.619.621.023.125.41.9 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .2.42.52.52.72.72.72.70.4Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.81.81.92.12.22.22.20.7 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.70.60.60.60.60.6-0.6Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.60.60.70.80.91.01.9Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.13.43.53.63.70.7 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.24.95.48.89.510.712.43.7China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.32.63.15.25.76.26.73.4 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.80.71.31.41.62.04.4 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.10.10.14.6 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.41.52.22.42.83.63.9Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.51.01.11.11.13.3 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.80.81.01.21.31.42.4 Central and South America. . . . .3.95.45.76.87.17.47.61.3Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.83.03.33.53.84.11.3 Other Central/South America. . . .1.72.62.73.43.63.63.51.3Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .8.011.512.417.518.820.522.52.6Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.431.132.140.543.347.251.62.1 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.Notes:Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.U.S.totalsincludenetelectricityimports,methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table B9. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)AppendixB 116 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,3694,2474,3285,3145,9066,5007,1722.2 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,8273,5543,6514,3644,8035,2545,7852.0Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4355084876667508319072.7 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1071851902853534164794.1Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,0692,5512,5562,6762,8583,0763,3661.2 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .9301,1361,2021,3071,4171,5181,6221.3Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7659109711,0261,1031,1711,2371.1 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .1662262312813143473852.2Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .6,3687,9348,0869,29710,18111,09512,1591.8 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .1,4881,1311,1541,9042,2462,5422,7883.9Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9557697801,0431,1881,3231,4692.8 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5333633748611,0581,2191,3195.6Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4183893905666527338203.3Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .1,9061,5201,5442,4692,8993,2753,6093.8 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,2592,7112,9145,1526,3047,4438,5884.8China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5511,3021,4572,9383,5894,2224,8335.4 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2575095108071,0281,2591,5044.8 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .932472674004735396053.6 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3586536801,0061,2131,4231,6463.9Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2635475749071,0801,2311,3753.9 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2864104226618299831,1434.4 Central and South America. . . . .4637157351,1341,4561,7041,9974.4Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2293383524575636978644.0 Other Central/South America. . . .2343773836778931,0071,1334.8Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .2,2724,3834,6457,8529,66911,36113,1024.6Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10,54613,83614,27519,61922,74925,73128,8703.1 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

TableB10.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyRegion,HighEconomicGrowthCase,1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)HighEconomicGrowthCaseProjectionsEnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............5,7696,6246,7017,9258,5799,23610,0621.8UnitedStates a...............4,9895,6925,7516,7837,3087,8568,5611.7 Canada.....................4735735887007618098661.7Mexico.....................3083593634425105726352.5WesternEurope..............3,4133,5853,5493,8623,9524,0074,1520.7MatureMarketAsia...........1,2841,6101,6271,7681,8361,9101,9830.9 Japan......................9901,1821,1791,2361,2701,2941,3190.5Australia/NewZealand.........2944294485325666166631.7TotalMatureMarket.........10,46511,81911,87713,55514,36715,15316,1971.4TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........3,7982,3932,3992,9243,2533,4943,7582.0Russia.....................2,3471,5531,5221,8302,0122,1662,3041.8 OtherFSU..................1,4528408771,0941,2411,3281,4542.2EasternEurope...............1,0957447268689501,0291,1191.9TotalTransitional............4,8943,1373,1243,7934,2034,5234,8762.0EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............3,8905,9676,2059,75411,68913,55415,3894.0 China......................2,2623,1763,3225,7966,9828,1459,2384.5 India.......................5831,0091,0251,4241,6791,9272,2093.4SouthKorea.................2344314515766757618462.8 OtherAsia..................8111,3511,4071,9582,3532,7213,0953.5MiddleEast..................8451,3111,3611,8462,1322,3922,6743.0Africa.......................6558408541,1631,3681,5481,7013.0 CentralandSouthAmerica.....7119989881,3701,6101,8062,0423.2Brazil......................2503433424595396377583.5 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....4616556469101,0711,1681,2843.0TotalEmerging.............6,1019,1169,40814,13216,79919,29921,8063.7TotalWorld...................21,46024,07224,40931,48035,36938,97642,8792.5 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.Note:TheU.S.numbersincludecarbondioxideemissionsattributabletorenewableenergysources.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.D102004A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

TableB11.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsfromOilUsebyRegion,HighEconomicGrowthCase, 1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)AppendixB 118EnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............2,6392,9832,9873,5943,9124,2214,5301.8UnitedStates a...............2,1782,4582,4572,9753,2253,4903,7551.9 Canada.....................2222682743173453533631.2Mexico.....................2392582563023423794122.1WesternEurope..............1,7391,9331,9111,9872,0552,1062,1950.6MatureMarketAsia...........7688087968388678889050.6 Japan......................6556686576706846916920.2Australia/NewZealand.........1131401391681831972131.9TotalMatureMarket.........5,1455,7245,6956,4206,8357,2157,6301.3TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........1,2246075816987498118761.8Russia.....................7833783564284594975371.8 OtherFSU..................4412292252702903143391.8EasternEurope...............2431971922322632933252.3TotalTransitional............1,4688037739311,0121,1041,2001.9EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............1,1161,8861,9403,0623,6594,2664,9474.2 China......................3456386691,2421,4851,7542,0865.1 India.......................1652782794064965916924.0SouthKorea.................1382362412963283513711.9 OtherAsia..................4687337511,1181,3491,5711,7983.9MiddleEast..................5687818041,0831,2321,3571,4842.7Africa.......................3043693775476447167813.2 CentralandSouthAmerica.....5417297129721,1361,2661,4143.0Brazil......................2102812753383844465222.8 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....3304484376347528208923.2TotalEmerging.............2,5293,7643,8345,6646,6707,6058,6263.6TotalWorld...................9,14210,29210,30213,01514,51715,92417,4572.3 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.D102004A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

TableB12.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsfromNaturalGasUsebyRegion,HighEconomicGrowthCase, 1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)HighEconomicGrowthCaseProjectionsEnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 119 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............1,2071,4231,4461,7351,9762,0872,1531.7UnitedStates a...............1,0261,1891,2031,4151,6041,6801,7091.5 Canada.....................1271571602152432552642.2Mexico.....................5477831041281511803.4WesternEurope..............5148038129641,0681,1831,3252.2MatureMarketAsia...........1332092092452873033241.9 Japan......................891501471762012192322.0Australia/NewZealand.........445962708784921.7TotalMatureMarket.........1,8542,4362,4672,9443,3313,5723,8011.9TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........1,3521,1191,1471,4471,6941,8492,0182.5Russia.....................9287687769091,0361,1491,2452.1 OtherFSU..................4243513715386587007733.2EasternEurope...............1671391362222653063514.2TotalTransitional............1,5191,2581,2831,6701,9592,1552,3692.7EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............1674024346488711,1031,4375.3 China......................3166711932753535499.3 India.......................244648781091501825.9SouthKorea.................644485872881063.5 OtherAsia..................1062462673204165126003.6MiddleEast..................2054214576217548861,0403.6Africa.......................801301391912523083904.6 CentralandSouthAmerica.....1162022032653313704453.5Brazil......................622264875931227.0 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....1101811772172552773232.6TotalEmerging.............5691,1561,2321,7252,2082,6673,3124.4TotalWorld...................3,9424,8494,9826,3387,4998,3959,4832.8 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.D102004A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

TableB13.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsfromCoalUsebyRegion,HighEconomicGrowthCase, 1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)AppendixB 120EnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............1,9232,2142,2472,5762,6702,9073,3571.8UnitedStates a...............1,7842,0422,0702,3722,4582,6643,0751.7 Canada.....................1231481541681732012402.0Mexico.....................152423364042432.7WesternEurope..............1,160849825786745706673-0.9MatureMarketAsia...........3835936226856817197540.8 Japan......................2453643753913853843950.2Australia/NewZealand.........1382292472942963353591.6TotalMatureMarket.........3,4653,6563,6944,0474,0964,3324,7841.1TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........1,2226676717798108348631.1Russia.....................6354083904925175215211.3 OtherFSU..................5872602812862923143420.9EasternEurope...............6854093974144224304430.5TotalTransitional............1,9071,0761,0681,1921,2321,2641,3060.9EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............2,6073,6793,8316,0447,1598,1849,0053.8 China......................1,8862,4722,5824,3625,2226,0386,6044.2 India.......................3946846989391,0731,1861,3352.9SouthKorea.................901521612222753233693.7 OtherAsia..................2373713895195886386972.6MiddleEast..................721101001421461491501.8Africa.......................2713403384254725255302.0 CentralandSouthAmerica.....5466731331431701834.1Brazil......................3440417380981134.5 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....202632606471703.4TotalEmerging.............3,0034,1964,3426,7437,9219,0289,8683.6TotalWorld...................8,3758,9289,10511,98313,24814,62415,9582.5 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),higheconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runHM2005.D102004A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

Appendix C Low Economic Growth Case Projections:

World Energy Consumption

Gross Domestic Product

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Table C1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)LowEconomicGrowthCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 123 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.9115.2117.7131.7139.1146.3152.81.1 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84.696.398.0108.6114.0119.7124.91.1Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.112.813.115.316.417.117.61.3 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.16.16.67.88.79.510.31.9Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .59.968.067.469.070.270.672.20.3 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .22.728.028.429.830.531.031.50.5Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18.321.922.022.522.823.023.20.2 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .4.56.16.57.37.78.08.31.1Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .183.6211.2213.5230.5239.8247.9256.50.8 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .60.942.042.447.850.752.855.61.2Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39.127.727.530.331.833.134.61.0 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.814.314.917.518.919.721.01.5Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.311.411.212.813.614.315.01.3Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .76.253.453.660.764.467.170.61.2 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51.584.788.4127.8144.2158.4172.83.0China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27.040.943.269.779.687.796.23.5 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.013.814.018.921.524.026.42.8 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.88.08.410.311.111.511.91.5 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.721.922.928.932.035.238.32.3Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.120.922.027.229.731.934.01.9 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.312.512.716.118.119.621.12.2 Central and South America. . . . .14.521.221.225.327.829.331.11.7Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.88.48.69.510.411.412.71.7 Other Central/South America. . . .8.812.712.615.817.317.818.41.7Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .88.4139.2144.3196.3219.8239.3259.02.6Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .348.2403.9411.5487.5523.9554.2586.11.5 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.Notes:EnergytotalsincludenetimportsofcoalcokeandelectricitygeneratedfrombiomassintheUnitedStates.Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.Theelectricityportionofthenationalfuelconsumptionvaluesconsistsof generationfordomesticuseplusanadjustmentforelectricitytradebasedonafuelsshareoftotalgenerationintheexportingcoun

-try.Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)AppendixC 124 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market Economies North AmericaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40.646.247.153.056.359.261.71.2 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23.227.328.231.133.836.237.51.2 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.723.823.926.827.528.530.61.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.98.99.09.89.910.09.90.4 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.59.09.511.011.512.313.11.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.9115.2117.7131.7139.1146.3152.81.1 Western EuropeOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25.928.928.628.428.728.629.20.1 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.715.215.417.418.920.021.61.5 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.48.78.68.27.77.36.9-1.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.49.19.29.08.98.47.8-0.7 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.56.05.56.06.06.46.70.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59.968.067.469.070.270.672.20.3 Mature Market AsiaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.413.013.113.113.313.213.20.1 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.54.04.04.34.75.05.21.2 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.26.56.87.47.37.37.20.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.03.13.03.33.43.74.01.2 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.61.51.61.71.71.82.01.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.728.028.429.830.531.031.50.5 Total Mature MarketOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79.088.088.894.698.2101.1104.20.7 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35.446.547.552.757.561.264.21.3 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37.339.039.442.342.543.144.70.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.321.121.222.122.322.021.70.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.616.516.618.719.320.521.71.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .183.6211.2213.5230.5239.8247.9256.50.8 Transitional EconomiesOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.011.911.412.512.913.413.90.9 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28.823.824.328.531.533.035.11.6 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.711.711.612.512.612.712.80.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.93.13.33.83.94.65.32.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.13.43.43.43.50.5Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76.253.453.660.764.467.170.61.2 Emerging Economies Emerging AsiaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.130.431.444.650.255.260.62.9 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.27.68.210.512.214.217.13.2 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28.139.941.560.768.474.378.92.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.82.03.84.85.76.55.3 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.24.95.48.18.69.09.62.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51.584.788.4127.8144.2158.4172.83.0 See notes at end of table.

Table C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu)LowEconomicGrowthCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 125 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Emerging Economies (Continued)

Middle EastOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.011.311.714.115.015.616.21.4 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.98.08.610.612.213.815.32.5 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.21.11.41.41.41.41.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.10.10.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.51.01.01.11.13.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.120.922.027.229.731.934.01.9 AfricaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.25.45.57.38.18.69.02.2 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.52.63.14.04.85.73.4 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.73.74.64.84.94.91.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.20.20.21.0 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.80.81.01.11.21.32.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.312.512.816.118.119.621.12.2 Central and South AmericaOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.711.010.712.814.014.915.91.7 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.23.83.84.85.66.37.12.7 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.70.81.01.01.11.11.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.20.20.40.30.42.4 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.95.45.76.56.76.76.70.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.521.221.225.327.829.331.11.7 Total EmergingOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36.158.159.278.887.394.3101.72.4 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.821.923.329.134.039.045.12.9 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32.445.647.167.675.781.686.32.7 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.12.22.34.25.46.37.05.0 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.011.512.416.617.418.018.71.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88.4139.2144.3196.3219.8239.3259.02.6 Total WorldOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .136.0158.0159.4185.9198.4208.8219.81.4 Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75.092.295.2110.4123.0133.2144.51.8 Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90.596.398.1122.4130.8137.4143.81.7 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.326.426.930.131.632.934.11.0 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.431.132.138.740.141.943.91.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .348.2403.9411.5487.5523.9554.2586.11.5Notes:EnergytotalsincludenetimportsofcoalcokeandelectricitygeneratedfrombiomassintheUnitedStates.Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.Theelectricityportionofthenationalfuelconsumptionvaluesconsistsof generationfordomesticuseplusanadjustmentforelectricitytradebasedonafuelsshareoftotalgenerationintheexportingcoun

-try.Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table C3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion 2000 Dollars)AppendixC 126 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . .8,47811,77411,99715,03617,09919,32421,5672.6 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . .7,1139,89110,07512,64014,33616,16317,9572.5Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6849299611,1691,3001,4081,5092.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6819559621,2281,4631,7532,1023.5Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .7,2469,3149,41610,63911,53712,47813,4461.6 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . .3,2583,8913,9044,5204,8225,0845,3091.3Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,8403,2943,2843,7683,9904,1654,2981.2 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . .4195976217528329201,0112.1Total Mature Market. . . . . . . .18,98224,98025,31730,19633,45836,88540,3222.0 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . .3,3062,2742,3923,4653,9634,4664,9783.2Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,2411,5831,6572,2982,5502,8193,0912.7 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,0656917351,1671,4131,6471,8874.2Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .9141,0401,0681,4261,6671,9302,2173.2Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . .4,2203,3143,4604,8915,6306,3977,1963.2 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . .6,10812,45613,19620,13425,19130,91137,4624.6China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,8075,0875,4949,13711,76214,70418,1085.3 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,6843,0213,1604,7145,8737,2898,9734.6 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3356196629241,0841,1991,3033.0 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,2823,7283,8805,3586,4727,7199,0783.8Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9451,3651,4311,9752,3242,7013,1143.4 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,0751,3871,4341,9092,2142,5412,8963.1 Central and South America. . . .1,7442,4002,3882,9513,4544,0344,7143.0Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,0221,3441,3701,6601,9362,2542,6262.9 Other Central/South America. . .7221,0561,0181,2911,5181,7812,0883.2Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . .9,87117,60818,44926,96933,18340,18848,1864.3Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33,07345,90147,22762,05672,27183,46995,7033.1 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources:A.Heston,R.Summers,andB.Aten,PennWorldTableVersion6.1(CenterforInternationalComparisonsattheUni

-versityofPennsylvania,October2002),websitehttp://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt_index.php;GlobalInsight,Inc., WorldOverview,FirstQuarter2005(Lexington,MA,March2005);andEnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005

,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem, run LM2005.D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/.

Table C4. World Oil Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)LowEconomicGrowthCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 127 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.523.723.826.728.429.831.11.2 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.019.619.722.223.524.825.91.2Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.02.12.32.42.52.50.7 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.02.02.22.42.62.81.5Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.514.013.813.713.813.814.10.1 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .6.16.46.36.46.46.46.40.1Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.35.45.35.25.25.15.0-0.2 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.81.01.01.21.21.31.41.3Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .39.144.143.946.848.650.151.60.7 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .8.44.34.14.54.64.74.90.7Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.42.72.62.82.93.03.10.7 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.01.61.51.71.71.81.80.7Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.71.41.41.61.71.81.81.2Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .10.05.75.56.16.36.56.70.9 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.714.715.121.524.226.729.32.9China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.34.95.28.89.911.112.53.9 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.22.22.22.93.43.94.33.0 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.02.12.22.42.62.62.60.7 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.15.55.67.48.39.19.82.5Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.85.55.76.97.37.67.91.4 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.62.73.64.04.24.42.2 Central and South America. . . . .3.85.45.26.36.97.37.81.7Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.22.22.32.52.73.11.5 Other Central/South America. . . .2.33.23.13.94.44.64.71.9Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .17.328.228.738.242.345.849.42.4Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66.578.078.291.197.2102.3107.71.4 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table C5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet)AppendixC 128 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.526.627.430.332.935.236.51.2 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19.222.223.024.726.728.429.31.1Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.42.93.03.84.24.44.41.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.41.51.82.12.42.82.7Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.114.915.017.018.419.521.01.5 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .2.63.83.84.14.54.84.91.2Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.72.72.93.23.33.41.0 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.81.11.11.11.31.41.61.5Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .35.245.246.251.355.959.562.51.3 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .25.020.821.324.426.928.029.71.5Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.314.414.615.416.617.618.51.0 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.76.46.88.910.310.511.22.2Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.12.72.63.74.14.54.92.8Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .28.123.523.928.131.032.534.61.6 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.07.27.89.911.413.316.03.2China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.51.11.22.02.63.04.05.6 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.90.91.31.72.02.34.3 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.70.81.11.31.51.73.1 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.04.64.95.45.96.88.02.1Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.77.68.310.111.613.114.62.5 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.42.32.42.93.74.45.33.4 Central and South America. . . . .2.03.53.64.55.25.86.52.7Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.40.50.81.21.51.96.2 Other Central/South America. . . .1.93.13.13.64.04.34.71.8Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .10.120.622.027.432.036.742.42.9Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73.489.392.2106.8118.9128.7139.51.8 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table C6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Short Tons)LowEconomicGrowthCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 129 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9721,1441,1521,3071,3541,4061,5081.2 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9041,0601,0661,2081,2521,3031,3931.2Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .597072777879911.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91514212425252.6Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .894572573543513484457-1.0 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .2333263413713683683640.3Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126173179184180176174-0.1 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .1061531621871881921900.7Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .2,0992,0422,0672,2212,2352,2582,3300.5 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .8483963974424484534570.6Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4622422292782842802740.8 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3861541681641641721830.4Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5243843743793813793820.1Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .1,3727797718218298328390.4 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,5552,0332,1183,0963,4933,7934,0332.8China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,1241,3571,4222,2342,5432,7822,9593.2 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2564144215235746216722.1 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .497580941091131141.6 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1271881962462682772871.7Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6698841101131111091.1 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1521881862292392452441.2 Central and South America. . . . .273436434648511.5Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .172222262831352.0 Other Central/South America. . . .101214171818160.7Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .1,7992,3532,4243,4793,8914,1974,4372.7Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5,2705,1745,2626,5216,9557,2877,6061.6 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.Notes:Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.Toconvertshorttonstometrictons,divideeach number in the table by 1.102.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table C7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)AppendixC 130 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6498508609379539579520.4 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5777697808138268308300.3Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6973711141171171122.0 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .389101010100.2Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .703870876864854802752-0.7 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .1923032953193303513801.1Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1923032953193303513801.1 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0000000Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .1,5442,0242,0322,1202,1362,1102,0830.1 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .2012102242752793323992.5Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1151251341511531732182.1 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8685901241251601813.1Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54727989981051131.6Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .2562823023643764375122.3 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .881781943674645516205.2China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .01723721371622009.8 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6181867891231329.1 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .501071131691791851962.4 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .323640605981933.8Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0006666Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81112131415150.9 Central and South America. . . . .92119203533342.5Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21414142323242.3 Other Central/South America. . . .77561110102.9Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .1052092254065196056754.9Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,9052,5152,5602,8903,0323,1523,2701.1 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table C8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)LowEconomicGrowthCaseProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 131 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.59.09.511.011.512.313.11.4 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.05.25.96.86.97.37.71.2Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.13.43.33.74.04.34.61.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.40.40.60.60.70.73.0Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.56.05.56.06.06.46.70.8 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .1.61.51.61.71.71.82.01.0Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.01.11.11.21.21.41.0 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.40.50.50.50.50.60.60.8Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .15.616.516.618.719.320.521.71.2 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .2.42.52.52.72.72.72.70.4Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.81.81.92.12.22.22.20.7 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.70.60.60.60.60.6-0.6Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.60.60.60.70.70.80.8Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.13.43.43.43.50.5 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.24.95.48.18.69.09.62.6China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.32.63.14.74.95.15.72.6 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.80.71.31.41.41.53.2 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.10.10.14.6 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.41.52.02.22.42.42.1Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.51.01.01.11.13.2 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.80.81.01.11.21.32.1 Central and South America. . . . .3.95.45.76.56.76.76.70.7Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.83.03.23.33.43.60.7 Other Central/South America. . . .1.72.62.73.33.43.33.10.7Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .8.011.512.416.617.418.018.71.8Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.431.132.138.740.141.943.91.4 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.Notes:Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentrounding.U.S.totalsincludenetelectricityimports,methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table C9. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)AppendixC 132 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,3694,2474,3285,0865,5015,9106,3141.7 United States

a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,8273,5543,6514,1934,5024,8215,1471.5Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4355084876246777237571.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1071851902703223664093.4Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,0692,5512,5562,5922,7122,7752,9160.6 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . .9301,1361,2021,2411,3041,3561,4030.7Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7659109719761,0201,0531,0810.5 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . .1662262312652843023221.5Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . .6,3687,9348,0868,9199,51710,04110,6331.2 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . .1,4881,1311,1541,6881,8641,9962,1012.6Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9557697801,0371,1321,2261,3352.4 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5333633746507327697653.2Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4183893905145616006402.2Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . .1,9061,5201,5442,2012,4252,5952,7412.5 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,2592,7112,9144,6745,4086,0576,6383.6China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5511,3021,4572,6673,0813,4403,7474.2 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2575095107398971,0481,1943.8 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .932472673624014264462.2 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3586536809071,0281,1441,2512.7Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2635475748169189921,0512.7 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2864104225836867648413.0 Central and South America. . . . .4637157351,0121,1921,3661,5403.3Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2293383524425296317613.4 Other Central/South America. . . .2343773835706637357793.1Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . .2,2724,3834,6457,0858,2049,17910,0703.4Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10,54613,83614,27518,20520,14621,81523,4442.2 a Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

TableC10.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyRegion,LowEconomicGrowthCase,1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)LowEconomicGrowthCaseProjectionsEnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 133 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............5,7696,6246,7017,5628,0018,4138,8401.2UnitedStates a...............4,9895,6925,7516,4726,8187,1717,5301.2 Canada.....................4735735886677117297551.1Mexico.....................3083593634224715135551.9WesternEurope..............3,4133,5853,5493,5903,6413,6583,7410.2MatureMarketAsia...........1,2841,6101,6271,6981,7251,7351,7400.3 Japan......................9901,1821,1791,1891,1951,1851,1730.0Australia/NewZealand.........2944294485085315505661.0TotalMatureMarket.........10,46511,81911,87712,84913,36713,80614,3210.8TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........3,7982,3932,3992,6952,8522,9393,0611.1Russia.....................2,3471,5531,5221,6871,7661,8231,8760.9 OtherFSU..................1,4528408771,0081,0861,1161,1841.3EasternEurope...............1,0957447268088488799131.0TotalTransitional............4,8943,1373,1243,5033,7013,8173,9741.1EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............3,8905,9676,2058,92210,08211,04211,9682.9 China......................2,2623,1763,3225,3216,0646,6797,2473.4 India.......................5831,0091,0251,3151,4801,6351,7982.5SouthKorea.................2344314515175725886021.3 OtherAsia..................8111,3511,4071,7701,9672,1402,3212.2MiddleEast..................8451,3111,3611,6641,8101,9322,0511.8Africa.......................6558408541,0831,2031,2911,3672.1 CentralandSouthAmerica.....7119989881,1931,3231,4201,5321.9Brazil......................2503433423904354895562.1 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....4616556468038889319751.8TotalEmerging.............6,1019,1169,40812,86214,41915,68516,9172.6TotalWorld...................21,46024,07224,40929,21431,48633,30835,2121.6 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.Note:TheU.S.numbersincludecarbondioxideemissionsattributabletorenewableenergysources.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.D102004A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

TableC11.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsfromOilUsebyRegion,LowEconomicGrowthCase, 1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)AppendixC 134EnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............2,6392,9832,9873,4033,6273,8163,9831.3UnitedStates a...............2,1782,4582,4572,81629913,1543,2291.3 Canada.....................2222682743003213253250.7Mexico.....................2392582562873143383601.5WesternEurope..............1,7391,9331,9111,8981,9121,9111,9500.1MatureMarketAsia...........7688087968038118108120.1 Japan......................655668657642641632623-0.2Australia/NewZealand.........1131401391611701781891.3TotalMatureMarket.........5,1455,7245,6956,1056,3506,5386,7460.7TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........1,2246075816386496686890.7Russia.....................7833783563923994104230.8 OtherFSU..................4412292252462512582660.7EasternEurope...............2431971922122272392511.2TotalTransitional............1,4688037738508769079400.9EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............1,1161,8861,9402,7733,1223,4413,7852.9 China......................3456386691,1381,2871,4411,6263.9 India.......................1652782793744354955553.0SouthKorea.................1382362412712842862850.7 OtherAsia..................4687337519901,1151,2191,3182.5MiddleEast..................5687818049731,0331,0741,1131.4Africa.......................3043693775015575946232.2 CentralandSouthAmerica.....5417297128499329911,0551.7Brazil......................2102812752953153493901.5 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....3304484375536175426661.8TotalEmerging.............2,5293,7643,8345,0955,6446,1006,5772.4TotalWorld...................9,14210,29210,30212,05012,87013,54514,2621.4 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.D102004A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

TableC12.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsfromNaturalGasUsebyRegion,LowEconomicGrowthCase, 1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)LowEconomicGrowthCaseProjectionsEnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 135 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............1,2071,4231,4461,6351,7791,9041,9711.4UnitedStates a...............1,0261,1891,2031,3331,4371,5321,5791.2 Canada.....................1271571602032242382381.8Mexico.....................547783991181341542.7WesternEurope..............5148038129391,0351,1091,2161.8MatureMarketAsia...........1332092092252502632731.2 Japan......................891501471611751831851.0Australia/NewZealand.........445962647580881.5TotalMatureMarket.........1,8542,4362,4672,7773,0263,2233,3831.4TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........1,3521,1191,1471,3101,4451,5061,5991.5Russia.....................9287687768238839369861.0 OtherFSU..................4243513714875625706122.2EasternEurope...............1671391361942182362562.8TotalTransitional............1,5191,2581,2831,5031,6621,7421,8551.6EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............1674024345456387398913.2 China......................3166711261591872465.6 India.......................24464873921091274.3SouthKorea.................64448566774872.6 OtherAsia..................1062462672913193694312.1MiddleEast..................2054214575616447268082.5Africa.......................801301391652112512993.4 CentralandSouthAmerica.....1162022032562973303732.7Brazil......................622264668831026.2 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....1101811772102292472701.9TotalEmerging.............5691,1561,2321,5261,7892,0472,3712.9TotalWorld...................3,9424,8494,9825,8066,4787,0127,6081.9 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.D102004A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

TableC13.WorldCarbonDioxideEmissionsfromCoalUsebyRegion,LowEconomicGrowthCase, 1990-2025(MillionMetricTonsCarbonDioxide)AppendixC 136EnergyInformationAdministration/InternationalEnergyOutlook2005 Region/CountryHistoryProjectionsAverageAnnualPercentChange, 2002-20251990200120022010201520202025MatureMarketEconomiesNorthAmerica...............1,9232,2142,2472,5042,5752,6722,8641.1UnitedStates a...............1,7842,0422,0702,3042,3702,4642,6301.0 Canada.....................1231481541641661671931.0Mexico.....................152423363941412.6WesternEurope..............1,160849825774731691653-1.0MatureMarketAsia...........3835936226706646616540.2 Japan......................245364375387378370365-0.1Australia/NewZealand.........1382292472842852912890.7TotalMatureMarket.........3,4653,6563,6943,9483,9704,0244,1720.5TransitionalEconomiesFormerSovietUnion..........1,2226676717487587657730.6Russia.....................6354083904734844774670.8 OtherFSU..................5872602812752742883060.1EasternEurope...............6854093974024044034060.1TotalTransitional............1,9071,0761,0681,1501,1621,1681,1790.4EmergingEconomiesEmergingAsia...............2,6073,6793,8315,6046,3226,8627,2922.8 China......................1,8862,4722,5824,0574,6175,0525,3743.2 India.......................3946846988679521,0311,1162.1SouthKorea.................901521611902202282311.6 OtherAsia..................2373713894895335525721.7MiddleEast..................721101001311341321291.1Africa.......................2713403384174354464441.2 CentralandSouthAmerica.....5466738894981041.5Brazil......................344041495257642.0 OtherCentral/SouthAmerica....202632404241390.9TotalEmerging.............3,0034,1964,3426,2406,9867,5387,9702.7TotalWorld...................8,3758,9289,10511,33812,11812,73113,3201.7 aIncludesthe50StatesandtheDistrictofColumbia.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washing

-ton,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),loweconomicgrowthcase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runLM2005.D102004A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

Appendix D Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Table D1. Delivered Energy Consumption in the United States by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 139Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.41.41.41.4-0.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.05.65.96.16.20.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-0.6Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.35.05.45.86.21.6Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.40.40.4-0.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.312.513.113.714.11.0 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.80.80.90.90.9Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.23.53.74.04.21.2Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.10.3Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.15.05.66.37.12.4Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.10.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.29.510.411.312.41.8 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.210.110.410.911.30.9Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.99.49.910.410.70.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.01.91.91.8-0.6Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.33.84.04.24.41.3Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.12.22.42.51.5Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25.227.428.429.830.80.9 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.130.533.335.838.31.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.80.81.01.01.4Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.12.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.931.434.236.839.41.7 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37.542.845.949.051.91.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.819.320.321.422.10.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.12.12.01.9-0.5Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.813.915.116.417.81.8Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.32.62.72.83.01.2Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71.680.786.191.796.81.3Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .26.429.931.533.435.61.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98.0110.6117.6125.1132.41.3 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.21.21.21.31.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.87.08.79.89.62.3Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19.822.823.625.328.61.6Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.18.58.68.78.70.3Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.64.34.64.85.31.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38.243.746.749.853.51.5 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38.444.047.150.253.21.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23.626.329.031.231.71.3Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.024.925.727.330.51.4Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.18.58.68.78.70.3Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.96.97.27.78.31.5Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98.0110.6117.6125.1132.41.3 Sources: 2002:BasedonEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),AnnualEnergyReview2003,DOE/EIA-0384(2003)(Washington,DC,September2004).

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washington,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,websitewww.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/;andSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobal

Energy Markets (2005).

Table D2. Delivered Energy Consumption in Canada by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)AppendixD 140 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.20.20.20.1Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.60.60.50.60.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.2Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.60.60.70.71.4Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.21.31.41.41.40.7 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.50.50.50.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.50.50.50.50.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.60.70.70.82.2Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.31.51.61.71.81.3 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.31.51.61.71.81.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.12.42.52.61.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.60.60.70.71.9Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.71.01.11.31.42.9Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.11.8Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.00.00.00.0-2.5Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.55.25.86.26.61.7 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.32.62.72.72.80.8Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.07.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-0.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.32.62.72.82.80.8 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.24.74.95.15.21.0Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.93.13.43.63.71.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.60.60.70.71.9Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.22.42.62.82.3Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.11.8Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.00.10.10.10.2Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.310.611.512.112.61.3Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .3.75.05.45.76.22.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.115.616.917.818.81.6 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.20.20.21.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.91.01.21.19.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.21.21.21.21.61.1Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.21.21.21.21.6Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.23.74.24.65.02.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.57.27.88.49.02.2 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.44.95.15.35.51.0Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.04.04.44.84.82.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.71.81.91.92.31.4Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.21.21.21.21.6Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.33.84.24.65.11.9Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.115.616.917.818.81.6 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D3. Delivered Energy Consumption in Mexico by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 141Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.50.50.50.50.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.10.10.20.210.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.30.40.50.55.8Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.91.11.21.33.4 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.20.20.22.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.19.6Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.20.20.25.3Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.06.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.40.50.54.4 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.80.80.91.01.11.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.01.11.11.11.20.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.13.4Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.50.60.60.72.7Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.06.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.32.52.72.93.21.4 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.42.73.03.32.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.016.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.42.83.03.32.5 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.23.94.34.75.12.0Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.21.31.41.51.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.13.4Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.91.11.31.54.0Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.10.10.113.7Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.06.16.97.68.32.2Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .1.61.92.12.42.62.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.68.09.110.010.92.2 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.11.21.41.41.2Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.81.11.31.65.2Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.30.30.32.3Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.10.3Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.60.60.60.72.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.83.33.74.12.7 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.35.05.66.16.51.8Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.61.92.32.73.13.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.40.40.40.52.6Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.10.3Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.60.60.70.73.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.68.09.110.010.92.2 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D4. Delivered Energy Consumption in Western Europe by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)AppendixD 142 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.72.42.32.12.0-1.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.44.44.44.44.60.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.10.10.10.1-3.3Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.52.62.62.72.80.4Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.50.50.50.5-0.5Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.10.10.10.12.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.310.110.09.89.9-0.2 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.00.90.90.80.8-0.9Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.21.31.41.51.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-0.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.32.42.52.60.8Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.10.10.10.1Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.07.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.44.64.74.85.00.6 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.27.88.08.38.70.8Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.26.87.38.08.71.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.32.22.12.10.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.43.84.34.44.91.6Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.27.88.08.38.70.9Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.20.20.22.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.228.730.031.333.31.1 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.016.617.117.217.80.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.01.4Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.20.20.2-0.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.316.917.317.518.00.4 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.927.828.228.429.30.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.812.413.113.814.71.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.32.52.42.22.1-0.2Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.38.99.59.810.51.0Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.90.90.80.80.7-0.9Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.30.30.32.8Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50.352.754.355.357.70.6Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .17.217.417.918.018.40.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67.470.272.273.476.10.5 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.81.41.51.61.80.0Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.65.36.47.18.23.6Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.45.85.45.14.8-1.3Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.29.08.98.47.8-0.7Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.35.86.16.57.11.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.327.228.328.629.70.5 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28.629.229.730.031.00.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.417.719.520.922.91.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.68.27.87.36.9-1.0Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.29.08.98.47.8-0.7Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.56.16.46.87.41.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67.470.272.273.476.10.5 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D5. Delivered Energy Consumption in Japan by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 143Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.60.60.50.5-1.2Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.30.30.30.3-0.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.01.01.01.00.6Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-3.4Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.01.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.91.91.91.91.9-0.1 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.31.21.11.00.9-1.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.30.40.53.4Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.01.01.11.10.9Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.04.4Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.07.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.42.52.52.52.50.2 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.14.24.34.54.50.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.40.40.50.53.4Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.12.12.12.1-0.2Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.01.41.51.61.72.3Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.063.8Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.10.10.10.1-5.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.78.18.48.78.90.7 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.24.34.44.44.40.2Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.1-0.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.24.44.44.44.40.2 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.210.310.410.310.30.1Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.80.91.11.21.32.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.12.12.12.1-0.2Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.93.43.63.83.91.3Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.05.8Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.10.10.10.1-2.3Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.316.917.317.517.80.4Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .5.76.06.36.67.00.9Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.022.923.624.124.70.5 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.80.60.70.70.7-0.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.22.52.62.61.3Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.22.12.12.00.1Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.33.43.74.01.2Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.11.21.31.52.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.69.59.910.410.91.0 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.910.911.111.011.00.0Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.23.53.83.91.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.24.34.24.24.10.0Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.33.43.74.01.2Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.21.31.51.71.9Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.022.923.624.124.70.5 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D6. Delivered Energy Consumption in Australia/New Zealand by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)AppendixD 144 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.10.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-0.6Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.30.30.31.2Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.9Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.40.40.50.8 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.10.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.4Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.30.30.31.8Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.07.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.30.40.40.41.5 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.80.91.01.13.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.80.80.91.01.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.30.40.40.42.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.50.50.62.1Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-9.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-0.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.32.62.93.22.5 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.61.71.71.81.80.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.014.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-1.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.61.71.81.81.90.8 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.52.72.83.01.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.01.01.11.21.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.30.40.40.41.9Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.80.91.01.11.21.8Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-9.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.01.0Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.04.75.15.55.91.7Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .2.52.72.82.92.90.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.57.57.98.48.81.3 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.01.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.30.50.40.51.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.42.82.83.03.01.0Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.50.50.60.60.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.23.73.84.04.11.1 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.52.72.93.11.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.21.31.51.51.71.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.73.13.23.43.41.1Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.50.50.60.60.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.57.57.98.48.81.4 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D7. Delivered Energy Consumption in the Former Soviet Union by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 145Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.40.50.53.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.33.84.14.14.31.2Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.40.40.30.30.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.21.51.71.93.2Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.63.53.33.10.1Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-34.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.89.49.89.910.21.2 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.11.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.70.80.80.92.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.01.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.50.60.60.71.9Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.40.30.30.3-2.4Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.71.81.91.91.0 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.13.53.43.63.80.8Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.210.011.512.313.81.3Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.43.63.84.04.21.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.44.14.75.25.53.7Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.52.62.62.71.6Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.06.5Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.023.726.127.730.01.6 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.25.05.45.76.01.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.01.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.30.30.20.2-0.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.55.35.65.96.31.5 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.68.99.39.810.41.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.114.616.417.319.01.3Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.74.04.24.44.60.9Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.06.17.07.78.33.2Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.46.56.46.26.10.6Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.08.9Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34.840.143.345.448.41.4Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .7.69.610.611.812.62.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.449.753.957.261.01.6 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.90.90.91.00.90.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.711.513.214.314.92.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.64.34.34.24.20.8Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.52.92.93.54.22.3Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.52.72.72.72.70.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.022.224.025.627.02.0 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.59.810.210.811.41.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.726.129.631.633.92.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.38.38.58.68.80.8Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.52.92.93.54.22.3Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.52.72.72.72.70.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.449.753.957.261.01.6 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D8. Delivered Energy Consumption in Eastern Europe by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)AppendixD 146 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.11.2Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.70.70.80.81.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.20.20.2-1.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.60.70.80.82.7Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.40.40.40.4-0.7Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.122.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.12.22.32.41.1 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.1-0.9Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.30.30.31.3Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.10.00.00.0-0.4Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.40.40.50.52.1Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.1-0.6Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.90.91.01.01.3 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.21.41.51.71.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.51.71.92.12.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.31.11.21.21.30.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.80.91.01.13.0Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.20.20.21.1Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.013.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.34.75.35.96.41.8 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.71.92.02.22.0Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-1.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.81.92.12.21.9 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.73.13.53.84.11.8Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.42.73.03.32.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.61.41.51.51.6-0.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.82.12.32.52.6Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.60.60.60.6-0.2Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.19.2Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.39.510.411.212.11.6Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .2.93.94.14.44.72.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.213.314.515.616.71.7 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.20.30.31.2Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.61.51.92.12.46.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.73.03.03.03.00.4Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.90.91.01.11.21.3Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.60.70.80.81.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.06.36.87.37.71.9 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.93.43.74.04.31.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.64.04.65.15.73.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.34.44.54.54.50.2Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.90.91.01.11.21.3Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.60.70.80.91.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.213.314.515.616.71.7 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D9. Delivered Energy Consumption in China by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 147Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.81.01.31.65.0Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.71.01.11.36.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.61.91.91.71.6-0.2Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.72.12.52.85.6Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.30.30.30.33.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.55.56.36.97.73.5 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.11.11.21.22.1Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.10.10.20.27.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.30.20.20.6Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.81.01.11.35.1Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.42.32.62.83.03.4 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.87.18.49.710.93.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.01.21.41.63.3Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.020.024.127.630.64.6Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.16.98.19.310.34.0Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.21.61.82.12.33.1Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.936.643.750.155.74.2 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.88.010.112.115.26.2Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.10.10.219.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.10.10.00.0-100.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.13.5Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.18.210.412.315.56.0 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.917.020.724.329.04.8Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.21.92.42.83.34.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.022.326.329.532.44.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.49.611.413.014.54.4Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.31.92.22.42.63.1Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.10.10.1Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30.852.663.072.182.04.3Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .12.420.423.125.627.23.5Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43.273.186.197.7109.24.1 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.71.91.31.00.2-5.2Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.21.21.52.14.314.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.822.926.730.131.23.3Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.71.41.72.19.9Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.15.25.76.16.63.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19.131.936.641.044.43.7 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.618.921.925.329.24.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.33.14.04.97.67.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27.945.153.059.663.63.6Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.71.41.72.19.9Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.15.25.76.26.73.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43.273.186.197.7109.24.1 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D10. Delivered Energy Consumption in India by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)AppendixD 148 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.21.41.72.03.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.01.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.30.30.31.3Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.71.01.21.46.5Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.32.83.33.94.3 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.30.40.30.33.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.60.81.01.26.1Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.41.01.21.41.55.7 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.32.62.93.32.1Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.60.70.80.92.2Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.83.33.74.23.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.21.41.71.93.3Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.03.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.67.08.09.110.42.7 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.42.43.03.53.94.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.10.10.10.12.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.42.53.13.64.14.7 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.36.07.18.29.33.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.70.81.01.13.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.53.53.94.34.82.9Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.62.63.33.94.64.7Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.123.1Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.012.815.117.519.93.5Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .5.06.87.78.69.52.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.019.622.726.029.33.3 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.40.50.76.1Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.81.01.41.77.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.16.47.27.98.52.2Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.70.91.31.48.4Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.71.31.31.31.73.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.69.510.912.514.03.3 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.56.37.58.710.03.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.41.82.42.95.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.69.911.112.213.42.5Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.70.91.31.48.4Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.71.31.41.41.73.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.019.622.726.029.33.3 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D11. Delivered Energy Consumption in South Korea by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 149Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.20.10.1-3.0Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.40.40.50.51.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-5.5Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.30.30.33.5Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-1.1Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.01.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.90.90.90.91.0 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.40.40.30.30.0Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.20.20.25.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.40.50.50.52.6Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-4.6Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.09.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.91.01.01.12.1 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.42.62.72.81.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.40.50.70.97.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.80.70.80.90.90.6Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.70.80.91.03.4Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.11.1Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.015.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.54.24.85.25.62.0 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.12.32.42.51.9Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.4Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-0.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.12.32.42.61.9 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.25.05.45.65.71.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.91.11.41.64.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.80.70.80.90.90.5Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.31.51.61.83.2Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.10.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.07.2Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.68.19.09.610.21.9Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .1.82.52.93.13.42.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.410.611.812.713.52.1 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.30.30.40.40.8Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.40.40.40.51.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.41.82.02.23.8Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.81.91.92.02.6Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.10.10.10.14.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.94.54.95.22.8 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.55.35.86.06.11.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.31.61.82.13.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.12.62.93.12.5Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.81.91.92.02.6Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.10.10.10.14.6Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.410.611.812.713.52.1 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D12. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Emerging Asia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)AppendixD 150 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.00.90.90.80.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.30.40.53.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-1.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.61.01.11.31.43.4Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.4Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.32.52.62.82.2 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.40.40.42.8Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.20.30.33.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.7Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.70.70.80.92.9Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.21.41.51.63.0 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.04.55.36.16.83.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.83.23.74.12.7Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.62.93.33.72.3Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.61.92.32.64.0Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.5Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.03.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.511.513.415.317.33.1 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.28.610.111.513.03.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.115.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.28.610.111.613.13.3 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.214.416.718.921.03.2Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.63.33.84.45.03.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.63.03.43.82.3Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.23.33.84.44.93.6Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.5Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.014.7Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.223.627.431.034.83.1Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .5.76.77.88.99.92.4Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.930.335.139.944.62.9 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.12.52.93.23.2Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.52.23.14.04.72.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.83.03.03.01.9Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.60.60.81.04.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.22.32.52.93.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.910.011.613.314.82.8 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.716.519.221.824.23.2Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.15.66.98.49.72.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.25.46.06.46.82.1Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.60.60.81.04.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.22.32.53.03.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.930.335.139.944.63.0 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D13. Delivered Energy Consumption in the Middle East by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 151Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.01.21.21.11.10.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.01.21.31.41.41.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.10.6Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.71.21.41.51.63.6Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.13.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.74.04.24.41.9 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.30.30.43.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.20.30.32.5Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.70.80.91.03.1Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.026.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.21.31.51.63.1 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.94.74.95.25.31.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.36.17.49.010.74.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.60.60.60.61.2Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.11.21.41.52.8Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.02.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.412.414.216.118.12.9 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.55.96.77.37.92.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.10.10.10.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-0.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.56.06.87.48.02.5 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.512.013.113.914.71.9Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.57.69.110.712.53.6Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.60.60.60.61.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.93.43.84.13.2Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.24.3Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.623.326.329.232.12.6Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .4.45.46.06.46.81.9Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.028.732.435.638.92.5 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.13.03.53.84.12.9Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.13.54.14.54.91.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.90.90.90.91.6Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.10.10.10.1Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.90.90.91.03.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.48.39.410.210.92.4 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.715.116.617.718.82.1Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.611.113.215.217.43.1Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.51.51.51.51.4Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.10.10.10.1Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.51.01.01.11.13.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.028.732.435.638.92.5 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D14. Delivered Energy Consumption in Africa by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)AppendixD 152 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.60.60.50.5-0.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.71.01.21.56.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.10.10.10.1-2.3Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.91.21.41.76.0Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.42.32.83.33.84.3 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.01.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.10.114.3Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.7Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.40.40.44.6Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.40.50.50.64.3 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.92.12.32.52.3Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.91.31.51.82.13.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.61.81.81.81.80.6Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.80.91.01.11.21.8Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-2.5Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.85.96.57.17.72.1 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.94.24.95.45.73.1Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-3.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-6.4Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.5Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.94.25.05.45.83.1 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.96.77.68.38.82.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.22.02.53.13.74.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.81.92.02.02.00.4Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.42.12.63.03.33.8Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-1.7Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.312.714.716.317.82.8Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .3.44.04.65.25.62.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.716.719.321.423.42.7 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.91.01.21.33.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.41.82.22.72.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.73.03.33.42.5Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.20.20.21.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.01.11.21.42.3Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.86.17.18.18.92.7 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.57.68.79.510.12.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.63.44.45.26.44.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.74.65.05.35.31.6Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.20.20.21.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.01.11.21.42.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.716.719.321.423.42.7 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table D15. Delivered Energy Consumption in Central and South America by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 153Sector/Fuel2002ProjectionsAverage Annual Percent Change, 2002-20252010201520202025 ResidentialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.70.80.80.81.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.40.50.60.70.83.2Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.5Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.71.11.41.61.84.2Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.02.7Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.62.32.73.03.43.3 CommercialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.20.20.23.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.20.20.22.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.61.01.21.51.64.8Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.31.61.92.14.4 IndustrialOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.64.24.75.25.61.9Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.32.73.33.74.32.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.80.80.91.02.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.51.82.22.74.1Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-2.8Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.69.310.712.013.72.6 TransportationOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.37.38.39.09.82.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.10.10.10.10.2Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.01.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.47.48.49.19.92.7 All End-Use SectorsOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.612.414.015.216.52.4Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.93.44.14.75.42.8Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.60.80.80.91.02.1Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.33.74.55.36.24.3Heat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0-0.5Delivered Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.520.323.526.129.12.8Electricity-Related Losses. . . . . . . . . . .5.76.66.97.17.00.9Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.226.830.433.236.12.3 Electric PowerOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.51.92.22.53.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.01.62.02.32.74.6Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.30.30.30.32.5Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.40.30.42.4Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.66.66.97.27.41.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.110.211.412.413.32.2 Total Energy ConsumptionOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.713.915.817.418.92.5Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.85.06.17.08.13.3Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.81.11.21.21.32.2Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.20.20.40.30.42.4Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.76.67.07.27.41.2Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.226.830.433.236.12.3 Sources: 2002:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Appendix E Projections of Oil Production Capacity and Oil Production in Three Cases:

Reference*High World Oil Price

Low World Oil Price

Table E1. World Oil Production Capacity by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)OilProductionandCapacityProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 157 Region/CountryHistory (Estimates)Projections199020022010201520202025 OPEC Persian GulfIran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.23.74.04.34.75.0 Iraq. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.03.54.25.36.6 Kuwait. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.12.93.54.55.2 Qatar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.80.60.70.80.8 Saudi Arabia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.69.214.014.515.416.3 United Arab Emitates. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.52.93.33.64.55.4Total Persian Gulf. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18.720.728.330.835.239.3 Other OPECAlgeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.31.62.02.12.42.8 Indonesia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.31.51.51.51.5 Libya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.62.02.22.52.9 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.32.63.03.43.9 Venezuela. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.43.13.54.14.75.6Total Other OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.59.911.612.914.516.7Total OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27.230.639.943.749.756.0 Non-OPEC Mature Market EconomiesUnited States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.79.39.99.79.59.3 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.93.54.84.95.1 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.64.34.64.74.9 North Sea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.06.35.85.45.14.5 Australia and New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.70.81.00.90.90.9 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.80.70.70.70.7Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . . . . . .20.123.725.226.125.825.4 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.411.213.615.316.517.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.20.30.40.40.5Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.711.413.915.716.918.1 Emerging EconomiesChina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.73.63.63.5 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.42.72.82.92.8 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.92.32.52.62.8 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.13.14.05.15.86.8 Central and South America. . . . . . . . .2.43.94.85.96.46.9Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.414.317.519.921.222.7Total Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.249.456.661.763.966.2Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69.480.096.5105.4113.6122.2 Note: OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),EnergyMarketsandContingencyInformationDivision.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005);andU.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,U.S.GeologicalSurvey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

Table E2. World Oil Production Capacity by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)AppendixE 158 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistory (Estimates)Projections199020022010201520202025 OPEC Persian GulfIran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.23.74.04.04.24.5 Iraq. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.03.13.13.54.0 Kuwait. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.12.92.93.33.5 Qatar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.80.60.60.70.8 Saudi Arabia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.69.210.410.510.811.0 United Arab Emitates. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.52.93.43.43.74.0Total Persian Gulf. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18.720.724.424.526.227.8 Other OPECAlgeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.31.61.81.82.02.2 Indonesia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.31.41.41.41.4 Libya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.61.81.82.02.2 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.32.42.42.72.9 Venezuela. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.43.13.23.23.53.9Total Other OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.59.910.610.611.612.6Total OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27.230.635.035.137.840.4 Non-OPEC Mature Market EconomiesUnited States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.79.310.210.510.911.0 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.94.05.45.96.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.64.54.95.15.3 North Sea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.06.36.25.85.44.9 Australia and New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.70.81.01.01.00.9 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.80.70.70.70.7Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . . . . . .20.123.726.628.329.029.2 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.411.214.116.617.819.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.20.40.40.40.5Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.711.414.517.018.220.1 Emerging EconomiesChina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.73.73.83.7 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.42.93.13.03.0 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.92.42.62.83.0 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.13.14.45.76.78.1 Central and South America. . . . . . . . .2.43.95.26.47.28.0Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.414.318.521.523.525.8Total Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.249.459.666.770.775.1Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69.480.094.6101.8108.5115.5 Note: OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),EnergyMarketsandContingencyInformationDivision.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005);andU.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,U.S.GeologicalSurvey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

Table E3. World Oil Production Capacity by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)OilProductionandCapacityProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 159 Region/CountryHistory (Estimates)Projections199020022010201520202025 OPEC Persian GulfIran. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.23.74.85.66.26.9 Iraq. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.04.05.77.18.6 Kuwait. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.13.64.55.46.2 Qatar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.50.80.80.80.80.9 Saudi Arabia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.69.215.616.518.120.4 United Arab Emitates. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.52.94.04.86.07.0Total Persian Gulf. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18.720.732.837.943.650.0 Other OPECAlgeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.31.62.22.63.13.7 Indonesia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.31.51.51.51.5 Libya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.62.22.63.33.9 Nigeria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.33.34.35.56.4 Venezuela. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.43.14.65.46.47.3Total Other OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8.59.913.816.419.822.8Total OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27.230.646.654.363.472.8 Non-OPEC Mature Market EconomiesUnited States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.79.39.59.18.98.4 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.93.44.34.44.4 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.64.24.54.54.7 North Sea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.06.35.75.24.84.3 Australia and New Zealand. . . . . . . . .0.70.80.90.90.90.8 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.70.80.70.70.70.7Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . . . . . .20.123.724.424.724.223.3 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.411.213.114.915.816.9 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.20.30.40.40.4Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.711.413.415.316.217.3 Emerging EconomiesChina. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.63.43.43.3 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.42.62.72.62.6 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.92.22.42.52.7 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.13.14.04.95.56.7 Central and South America. . . . . . . . .2.43.94.85.66.16.5Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.414.317.219.020.121.8Total Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.249.455.059.060.562.4Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69.480.0101.6113.3123.9135.2 Note: OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),EnergyMarketsandContingencyInformationDivision.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005);andU.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,U.S.GeologicalSurvey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

Table E4. World Oil Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)AppendixE 160 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistory (Estimates)Projections199020022010201520202025Conventional Production. . . . . . . . . . . .66.776.691.598.0105.2113.2OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24.628.337.040.045.551.4Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.41.61.51.51.5 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.319.025.827.932.136.7 North Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.73.03.63.94.44.6 West Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.02.52.73.13.6 South America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.32.93.54.04.45.0Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.148.354.558.059.761.8Mature Market Economies. . . . . . . . .20.122.923.523.022.421.8United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.79.39.99.79.59.3 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.11.81.71.61.6 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.64.34.64.74.9 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.66.96.46.05.65.0 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.10.10.10.1 Australia and New Zealand. . . . . . . .0.70.81.00.90.90.9Transitional Economies. . . . . . . . . . .11.611.413.915.716.818.0Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . .11.311.213.615.316.417.5Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.39.610.310.811.111.3 Caspian and Other FSU. . . . . . . . . .0.01.63.34.55.36.2Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.20.30.40.40.5Emerging Economies. . . . . . . . . . . . .10.414.017.119.320.522.0China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.73.63.63.5 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.42.72.82.82.7 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.92.32.52.62.8 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.93.84.95.56.5 Central and South America. . . . . . . .2.43.84.65.56.06.5Nonconventional Production. . . . . . . .0.01.52.84.95.55.7United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.0 Other North America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.81.73.13.33.5 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.10.1 Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.10.1 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.10.20.20.2 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.20.20.20.30.3 Central and South America. . . . . . . . . .0.00.50.81.41.51.5Liquids Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66.778.194.3102.9110.7118.9OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24.628.737.741.346.852.7 Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.149.456.661.763.966.2 Persian Gulf Production as aPercentage of World Consumption. . .24.5%24.3%27.5%27.3%29.2%31.0%Notes:OPEC=OrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries.Conventionalproductionincludescrudeoil(includingleasecon

-densates),naturalgasliquids,otherhydrogenhydrocarbonsforrefineryfeedstocks,refinerygains,alcohol,andliquidsproducedfromcoalandothersources.Nonconventionalliquidsincludeproductionfromoilsands,ultra-heavyoils,gastoliquidstechnologies, coaltoliquidstechnologies,biofueltechnologies,andshaleoil.Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentround

-ing.Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),EnergyMarketsandContingencyInformationDivision.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005);andU.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,U.S.GeologicalSurvey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

Table E5. World Oil Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)OilProductionandCapacityProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 161 Region/CountryHistory (Estimates)Projections199020022010201520202025Conventional Production. . . . . . . . . . . .66.776.688.592.697.3102.4OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24.530.232.031.233.135.0Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.41.31.21.11.0 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.220.922.321.823.325.1 North Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.73.03.13.03.23.1 West Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.02.22.12.32.4 South America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.32.93.13.13.23.4Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.246.456.561.464.267.4Mature Market Economies. . . . . . . . .20.122.924.324.123.923.2United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.79.310.110.110.19.8 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.11.91.71.71.7 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.64.54.95.15.3 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.66.96.76.35.95.4 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.10.10.10.1 Australia and New Zealand. . . . . . . .0.70.81.01.01.00.9Transitional Economies. . . . . . . . . . .11.79.514.416.918.120.0Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . .11.49.314.016.517.719.5Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.47.710.711.612.012.5 Caspian and Other FSU. . . . . . . . . .0.01.63.34.95.77.0Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.20.40.40.40.5Emerging Economies. . . . . . . . . . . . .10.414.017.820.422.224.2China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.73.73.83.7 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.42.83.02.92.9 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.92.42.62.83.0 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.94.15.26.17.4 Central and South America. . . . . . . .2.43.84.85.96.67.2Nonconventional Production. . . . . . . .0.01.54.37.18.810.5United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.10.40.81.2 Other North America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.82.13.74.24.7 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.10.10.10.1 Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.10.10.20.2 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.20.30.40.6 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.20.30.50.60.7 Central and South America. . . . . . . . . .0.00.51.42.02.53.0Liquids Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66.778.192.899.7106.1112.9OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24.530.633.333.035.437.9 Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.247.559.666.770.775.1 Persian Gulf Production as aPercentage of World Consumption. . .24.4%26.7%22.7%20.1%19.7%18.4%Notes:OPEC=OrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries.Conventionalproductionincludescrudeoil(includingleasecon

-densates),naturalgasliquids,otherhydrogenhydrocarbonsforrefineryfeedstocks,refinerygains,alcohol,andliquidsproducedfromcoalandothersources.Nonconventionalliquidsincludeproductionfromoilsands,ultra-heavyoils,gastoliquidstechnologies, coaltoliquidstechnologies,biofueltechnologies,andshaleoil.Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentround

-ing.Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),EnergyMarketsandContingencyInformationDivision.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005);andU.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,U.S.GeologicalSurvey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

Table E6. World Oil Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)AppendixE 162 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Region/CountryHistory (Estimates)Projections199020022010201520202025Conventional Production. . . . . . . . . . . .66.776.696.4106.1115.9126.6OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24.528.343.450.358.767.6Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.41.81.91.92.0 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16.219.030.335.141.448.4 North Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.73.04.34.95.76.0 West Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.82.02.93.44.04.7 South America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.32.94.15.05.76.5Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.248.353.055.857.259.0Mature Market Economies. . . . . . . . .20.122.922.822.021.420.4United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.79.39.59.18.98.4 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.02.11.81.61.61.5 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.64.24.54.54.7 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.66.96.35.85.44.9 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.10.20.10.10.10.1 Australia and New Zealand. . . . . . . .0.70.80.90.90.90.8Transitional Economies. . . . . . . . . . .11.711.413.415.316.217.3Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . .11.411.213.114.915.816.9Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.49.610.010.510.610.9 Caspian and Other FSU. . . . . . . . . .0.01.63.14.45.26.0Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.20.30.40.40.4Emerging Economies. . . . . . . . . . . . .10.414.016.818.519.621.3China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.03.63.43.43.3 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.42.62.72.62.6 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.92.22.42.52.7 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.93.84.75.36.5 Central and South America. . . . . . . .2.43.84.65.35.86.2Nonconventional Production. . . . . . . .0.01.52.64.04.34.3United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.0 Other North America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.81.62.72.82.9 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.0 Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.0 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.00.0 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.20.20.20.20.2 Central and South America. . . . . . . . . .0.00.50.81.11.31.2Liquids Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66.778.199.0110.1120.2130.9OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24.528.744.051.159.768.5 Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42.249.455.059.060.562.4 Persian Gulf Production as aPercentage of World Consumption. . .24.4%24.3%30.6%31.9%34.5%37.0%Notes:OPEC=OrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries.Conventionalproductionincludescrudeoil(includingleasecon

-densates),naturalgasliquids,otherhydrogenhydrocarbonsforrefineryfeedstocks,refinerygains,alcohol,andliquidsproducedfromcoalandothersources.Nonconventionalliquidsincludeproductionfromoilsands,ultra-heavyoils,gastoliquidstechnologies, coaltoliquidstechnologies,biofueltechnologies,andshaleoil.Totalsmaynotequalsumofcomponentsduetoindependentround

-ing.Sources: History:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),EnergyMarketsandContingencyInformationDivision.

Projections:EIA,SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005);andU.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,U.S.GeologicalSurvey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

Appendix F Projections of Nuclear Generating Capacity

Reference Case

Strong Nuclear Power Revival Case

Weak Nuclear Power Case

Kyoto Protocol Case

Table F1. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, Reference Case, 2002-2025 (Gigawatts)NuclearGeneratingCapacityProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 165Region/Country2002 Projections2010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110.9116.5118.1118.6117.9United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98.9100.6102.2102.7102.7 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.614.514.514.513.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.41.41.41.4Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127.0120.1114.9104.695.1 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . .45.947.448.551.254.8Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45.947.448.551.254.8 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . . . .283.8284.1281.5274.4267.8 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . .36.539.238.244.551.8Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.224.623.928.135.5 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.214.714.316.316.3Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.712.213.214.115.1Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . . .48.251.551.458.566.9 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24.349.060.170.779.7China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.210.818.121.126.0 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.97.910.514.215.3 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.722.023.324.125.5 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.68.38.211.313.0Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.90.90.90.9 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.81.92.02.02.0 Central and South America. . . . . . .3.02.84.84.44.4Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.01.93.13.13.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.00.91.61.31.3Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29.154.667.878.187.1Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .361.2390.1400.7411.0421.8 Nations Participating in Kyoto Protocol Annex ICanada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.613.715.817.318.8 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127.0125.0130.2132.0147.0 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45.948.561.566.869.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.712.213.214.115.1 Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . . .36.538.938.242.850.1Total Annex I Participants. . . . . . .231.8238.2258.9273.0300.6 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washing

-ton,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,website www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table F2. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, Strong Nuclear Power Revival Case, 2002-2025 (Gigawatts)AppendixF 166 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005Region/Country2002 Projections2010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110.9115.7119.5123.7126.3United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98.9100.6102.2102.7102.7 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.613.715.817.318.8 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.41.43.74.9Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127.0125.0130.2132.0147.0 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . .45.948.561.566.869.6Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45.948.561.566.869.6 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . . . .283.8289.2311.1322.5343.0 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . .36.542.049.661.772.0Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.227.431.841.546.9 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.214.717.820.325.1Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.712.015.220.630.9Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . . .48.254.164.882.3102.9 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24.344.963.777.2100.4China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.29.921.123.328.9 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.96.39.412.616.2 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.720.623.326.030.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.68.09.915.325.2Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.93.16.39.1 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.81.82.13.66.4 Central and South America. . . . . . .3.04.84.86.08.4Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.03.13.13.15.5 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.01.61.62.82.8Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29.152.373.793.1124.3Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .361.2395.6449.6498.0570.1 Nations Participating in Kyoto Protocol Annex ICanada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.613.715.817.318.8 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127.0125.0130.2132.0147.0 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45.948.561.566.869.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.712.015.220.630.9 Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . . .36.541.748.357.766.7Total Annex I Participants. . . . . . .231.8240.8271.0294.4333.0 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washing

-ton,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,website www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table F3. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, Weak Nuclear Power Case, 2002-2025 (Gigawatts)NuclearGeneratingCapacityProjections Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 167Region/Country2002 Projections2010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110.9114.2114.6114.9111.2United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98.9100.6102.2102.7102.7 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.612.111.010.87.1 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.41.41.41.4Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127.0107.194.673.245.2 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . .45.946.847.445.140.5Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45.946.847.445.140.5 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . . . .283.8268.0256.6233.2196.9 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . .36.536.837.034.630.3Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.223.723.921.518.9 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.213.113.113.111.4Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.710.710.811.410.2Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . . .48.247.547.846.040.4 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24.339.047.554.455.7China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.28.612.816.818.5 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.95.76.27.810.0 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.716.820.622.823.3 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.67.97.97.03.9Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.90.90.90.9 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.81.81.82.00.3 Central and South America. . . . . . .3.02.82.53.12.5Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.01.91.92.52.5 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.00.90.60.60.0Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29.144.552.760.459.5Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .361.2360.1357.1339.7296.8 Nations Participating in Kyoto Protocol Annex ICanada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.613.715.817.318.8 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127.0125.0130.2132.0147.0 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45.948.561.566.869.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.710.710.811.410.2 Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . . .36.536.837.034.629.3Total Annex I Participants. . . . . . .231.8234.6255.3262.2274.9 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washing

-ton,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,website www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table F4. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, Kyoto Protocol Case, 2002-2025 (Gigawatts)AppendixF 168 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005Region/Country2002 Projections2010201520202025 Mature Market EconomiesNorth America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110.9116.5118.1118.6118.0United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98.9100.6102.2102.7102.7 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.614.514.514.513.9 Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.41.41.41.4Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127.0123.3119.7117.9109.8 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . .45.947.751.561.161.1Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45.947.751.561.161.1 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . . . .0.00.00.00.00.0Total Mature Market. . . . . . . . . . .283.8287.5289.3297.6288.9 Transitional EconomiesFormer Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . .36.540.142.850.054.9Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.225.528.531.835.5 Other FSU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15.214.714.318.219.4Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.712.314.316.219.8Total Transitional. . . . . . . . . . . . .48.252.557.166.174.7 Emerging EconomiesEmerging Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24.349.060.170.779.7China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.210.818.121.126.0 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.97.910.514.215.3 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13.722.023.324.125.5 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.68.38.211.313.0Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.00.90.90.90.9 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.81.92.02.02.0 Central and South America. . . . . . .3.02.84.84.44.4Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.01.93.13.13.1 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.00.91.61.31.3Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29.154.667.878.187.1Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .361.2394.6414.2441.8450.7 Nations Participating in Kyoto Protocol Annex ICanada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.614.514.514.513.9 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127.0123.3119.7117.9109.8 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45.947.751.561.161.1 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.712.314.316.219.8 Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . . .36.539.842.848.353.2Total Annex I Participants. . . . . . .231.8237.6242.8257.9257.8 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2002:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.

Projections:

EIA,AnnualEnergyOutlook2005,DOE/EIA-0383(2005)(Washing

-ton,DC,February2005),Octoberfuturescase,AEO2005NationalEnergyModelingSystem,runCF2005.D111104A,website www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Appendix G Key Assumptions for the IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol Case Energy-Related Emissions of Greenhouse GasesTheSystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalenergyMarkets(SAGE)themodelusedbytheEnergyInformation Administration(EIA)topreparetheInternationalEnergyOutlook2005 (IEO2005)mid-termprojectionsdoesnotincludenon-energy-relatedemissionsofgreenhouse gases,whichareestimatedatabout15to20percentof totalgreenhousegasemissions,basedoninventories submittedtotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConven

-tiononClimateChange(UNFCCC).SAGEmodelsglobalenergysupplyanddemandand,therefore,does notaddressagriculturalandothernon-energy-related

emissions.EIAimplicitlyassumesthatpercentagereductionsofnon-energy-relatedemissionsandtheirassociated abatementcostswillbesimilartothoseforenergy-relatedemissions.Non-energy-relatedgreenhousegas emissionsarelikelytogrowfasterthanenergy-related emissions;however,themarginalabatementcostsfor non-energy-relatedgreenhousegasemissionsarenot knownandcannotbeestimatedreliably.InSAGE,each regionsemissionsreductiongoalundertheKyotoPro-tocolisbasedonlyonthecorrespondingestimateofthat regionsenergy-relatedcarbondioxideemissions,as determinedbyEIAdata.Itisassumedthattherequired reductionswillalsobeproportionatelylessthanifall

gases were included.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions For IEO2005,EIAmodeledonlyenergy-relatedcarbondioxideemissions.Energy-relatedemissionsofother greenhousegases,suchasmethane,nitrousoxide,and sulfurhexafluoride,arenotincludedintheanalysis.ThecurrentSAGEframeworkuseshistoricaldataonfuelconsumptionandemissionsfromEIAs InternationalEnergyAnnual2002tocalibratethebaseyearforthemodelsReferenceEnergySystem(RES).The Interna-tionalEnergyAnnualdoesnotprovidehistoricaldataformethaneandnitrousoxideemissions,andcurrently

there are no plans to do so in the future.EIAassumesthatemissionsreductionproportionsandabatementcostsforenergy-relatedmethaneandnitrous oxidewillbesufficientlysimilartothoseforcarbon dioxidethatgiventheirlessershareoftotalemissions (approximately15percentfromenergyandnon-energy sourcescombined)theper-unitcarbonpricederived bymodelingcarbondioxidealoneisrepresentativeof theabatementcostsforallenergy-relatedgreenhouse gasemissions.TheUNFCCCestimatesthattotalAnnex Iemissionsofgreenhousegases(incarbondioxide equivalents)in2002hadthefollowingcomposition:

energy-relatedcarbondioxide,78.1percent;non-energy-relatedcarbondioxide,3.8percent;methane, 10.0percent;nitrousoxide,6.4percent;andothergases, 1.7 percent.

19 Emissions Reduction TargetsTheemissionsreductiontargetsmodeledinSAGEwerederivedfromEIAshistoricaldataongreenhousegas emissions,notonUNFCCCdata.Similarly,thehistori

-calvaluesforfuelconsumptionusedinSAGEarebasedonEIAdata.Formethodologicalreasons,theEIAand UNFCCCdataonemissionsdiffer;therefore,theemis

-sionstargetsusedforthe IEO2005analysisdifferfromthoseusedbytheUNFCCC,asshownbytheexamples

in Table G1.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 169 Table G1. Differences Between IEO2005 and UNFCCC Regional Emissions Reduction Targets for 2010 SAGE Region EIA Target (Thousand Metric Tons)

UNFCCC Target (Thousand Metric Tons)

Difference Thousand Metric Tons Percent of IEO2005 TargetCanada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .444,375396,59147,78410.75 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1,056,157967,86288,2958.36 Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . .3,091,7523,080,20011,5520.37 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .930,230985,432-55,202-5.93 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,122,7012,936,310186,3915.97 Sources:EIATarget:DerivedfromEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/.UNFCCTarget:UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),GreenhouseGasInventoryDatabase,websitehttp://ghg.unfccc.int/index.html,queriedfor1990or

base year Total Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) for CO 2 for all Annex I countries.

19UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC),GreenhouseGasInventoryDatabase,Queriedfor2002NationalTotalsandTotalFuelCombustion(SectoralApproach)forallGHGsforallAnnexIcountriesexceptRussia,Poland,and Liechtenstein,websitehttp://ghg.unfccc.int/index.html.

Regional AggregrationSAGEaggregatesindividualcountriesinto15fixedglobalregionsandforecastsallenergyconsumption activityandconsequentemissionsattheregionallevel.

Becausethemodeldoesnotdistinguishspecificcoun

-trieswithinaregion,themethodologyineffectcreatesajointemissionsreductiontargetforallparticipating AnnexIcountriesintheregion.Forregionswithamixof participatingandnon-participatingcountries(e.g.,

WesternEurope,EasternEurope,andtheformerSoviet Union),thejointtargetbymethodologicalnecessity includesthenon-participatingcountries(butwithno

emissions reduction obligation from their baselines).Thisapproachmakesitsomewhateasierforcountriestoachievetheirtargets.Itallows,bydefinition,theequiva

-lentofoff-bookjointimplementationprojectsandemissioncredittradingamongparticipantsandnon-participantsinasingleregion.Further,renewable resourceslocatedinoneareamaybeemployedtomeet demandfromanotherareawithinasinglelargeregion, withnotransmissioncosts.Theassociatedcarbonprice, therefore,tendstobeunderstatedbasedonthesetwo

assumptions.TheSAGEmodelresultsshowthatEasternEuropeandtheformerSovietUnionhavesufficientroomunder theiremissionsreductiontargetstomeetallthepermit tradingdemandgeneratedbyothersignatoryregions through2025.Therefore,the IEO2005projectionsdonotincludeCleanDevelopmentMechanismprojects,which arelikelytobemorecostlythanpurchasesofemission

permits.Reduction Targets Through 2025UnderthetermsoftheKyotoProtocol,emissionsreduc

-tiontargetscontinueinthesecondcommitmentperiod(beyond2012)atthesamelevelsasintheinitialcommit

-mentperiod.InSAGE,thosetargetlevelsareassumedto continue through 2025.

Macroeconomic ImpactsInSAGE,elasticityofdemandismodeledwithrespecttothecostsofenergyend-useservices;however,theresponseofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)tohigherenergypricesisnotmodeled.Thatis,SAGEdoesnot modelthemacroeconomicimpactsoftheKyoto

Protocol.SAGEderivesdemandforenergyend-useservices(resi

-dentialspaceheating,personalroadtransportation,etc.)asafunctionofexogenouslydevelopedmacroeconomic drivers(GDP,population,etc.).TheSAGElinearpro

-gramthensolvesfortheleast-costtechnologymixthatwillmeettheprojecteddemand.AlthoughSAGEdoes notendogenouslychangetheprojectionsprovided exogenouslyforthemacroeconomicdrivers,mostofthe effectofhigherenergypricesiscapturedintheelastic demand.Furthermore,higherGDPgrowthprojections tendtoincreasetheintroductionofnewer,moreeffi

-cient technologies.

Minimum Market SharesSAGEimposesminimummarketsharesforsomeenergy-efficienttechnologies(e.g.,new,moreefficient personalautomobiles,suchasgas-electrichybrids)that havecapitalcostshigherthanthoseoflessefficientcom-petingtechnologies.(Becauseofthewinner-take-all natureoflinearprogrammodels,themoreefficientbut morecostlytechnologieswouldnotbeselectedwithout

the imposed minimum shares.)Forthe IEO2005KyotoProtocolcase,EIAassumednoincreaseintheminimummarketshareimposedfor energy-efficientnewtechnologies.Althoughinthe KyotoProtocolcasetheircostscomparemorefavorably withthecostsfortheirlessenergy-efficientcompetitors thaninthereferencecase,thenewtechnologiesstillcost moreandthereforeentertheforecastonlyattheir imposedminimummarketshares.Furthermore,SAGE doesnotadjustforchangesinconsumerpreferences, suchasswitchingtosubcompactcarsthathaveboth lowercapitalcostsandloweroperatingcosts.This attributeofthemodeltendstoyieldahigherprojected carbonpricethanwouldbeexpectedifsuchchangesin

consumer behavior were included in the analysis.

170 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 Forecast ComparisonsThreeorganizationsprovideforecastscomparablewiththoseintheInternationalEnergyOutlook2005 (IEO2005).TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)providesbusi

-nessasusualprojectionstotheyear2030inits WorldEnergyOutlook2004;PetroleumEconomics,Ltd.(PEL)publishesworldenergyforecaststo2025;andPetroleum IndustryResearchAssociates(PIRA)providesprojec

-tionsto2015.Forthiscomparison,2002isusedasthebaseyearforalltheforecasts,andthecomparisons extendto2025.AlthoughIEAsforecastextendsto2030, it does not publish a projection for 2025.Inadditiontoforecastsfromotherorganizations,the IEO2005projectionsarealsocomparedwiththoseinlastyearsreport(IEO2004).Because2002datawerenotavailablewhen IEO2004forecastswereprepared,the growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001.Regionalbreakoutsamongtheforecastinggroupsvary,complicatingthecomparisons.Forexample, IEO2005andPIRAincludeMexicoinNorthAmerica;IEA includesMexicoinOrganizationforEconomicCoopera-tionandDevelopment(OECD)NorthAmerica;butPEL includesMexicoinLatinAmerica.BecausetheIEAand

IEO2005provideseparateforecastsforMexico,forpur

-posesofthiscomparison,MexicohasbeenremovedfromNorthAmericainthe IEO2005andIEAprojectionsandisincludedwithCentralandSouthAmericatoform aLatinAmericacountrygrouping.Unfortunately, PIRAdoesnotprovideseparateforecastsforMexico, andsoPIRAsNorthAmericanforecastsaresomewhat

inconsistent with the other forecasts.Further,PIRAincludesonlyJapaninmaturemarketAsia,whereasmaturemarketAsiainthe IEO2005 fore-castcomprisesJapan,Australia,andNewZealand,andtheIEAforecastsanOECDPacificthatincludesthose threecountriesplusSouthKorea.

IEO2005includesTur

-keyintheMiddleEast,butIEAincludesTurkeyaswellastheCzechRepublic,Hungary,Poland,and SlovakiainOECDEurope(whichisdesignatedas WesternEuropeforthiscomparison).PELalsoplaces TurkeyinWesternEuropebutincludestheCzech Republic,Hungary,Poland,andSlovakiainEastern Europe,asdoes IEO2005.Althoughmostofthediffer

-encesinvolvefairlysmallcountries,theydocontribute to the variations among the forecasts.Alltheforecastsprovideprojectionsouttotheyear2010(TableH1).The2002-2010timeperiodshowswidevari

-ationamongtheforecastersexpectations.Thisis,inpart,reflectiveofthevolatilityexperiencedoverthepast severalyearsintheworldsenergymarkets.Growth ratesforenergyconsumptionamongthereferencecase forecastsrangefrom2.0percentperyear(PEL)to2.7 percentperyear(PIRA),withthe IEO2005forecastpro

-jecting2.6percentperyear.Theforecastersareingen

-eralagreementthatenergydemandinthematuremarketeconomieswillexpandmoreslowlythaninthe transitionaleconomies,andthatthefastestgrowthin worldenergyusewilloccuramongtheemergingecono

-mies.However,the IEO2005referencecaseforecastsmuchslowerenergydemandgrowthforWestern Europethandoanyoftheotherforecasts,andinfactall theotherforecastsfallabovetherangedefinedbythe

IEO2005higheconomicgrowthcaseforthe2002to2010 period.TheIEAforecastanticipatesmuchhighergrowthformaturemarketAsiathananyoftheotherforecasts, thoughthismaylikelybethecasebecausetheIEAfig-uresincludeprojectionsforSouthKorea,inadditionto Japan,Australia,andNewZealand.IEAs2002-2010 growthrateformaturemarketAsiaexceedsthatofthe

IEO2005 high economic growth case.InthetransitionalEE/FSUregion,forecastsarelargelyinagreementaboutexpectedgrowth,exceptforthe PIRAforecast.PIRAismuchmoreoptimisticaboutpro

-jectedgrowthfortheEE/FSUregionthananyotherforecast,andPIRAs2.7percentperyearprojected growthratefortheEE/FSUfallsabovethe IEO2005 higheconomicgrowthcaseof2.5percentperyearforthe

2002 to 2010 period.TheIEAprojectionsforthedevelopingworldarealsogenerallylowerthanthe IEO2005projections.TheIEAgrowthratesarelowerthantheprojectedgrowthrates

in IEO2005foreachdevelopingregion,andtheyfallbelowthe IEO2005loweconomicgrowthcaseforChinaandAfrica.ForChina,theIEAsprojectionof3.4-percent annualgrowthinenergydemandbetween2002and 2010issubstantiallylowerthanthe6.8percentperyear forecastinthe IEO2005referencecase.Inpart,thismaybeexplainedbyChinasparticularlyhigheconomic growthandcorrespondingenergydemandgrowththat accompanieditin2003and2004,whichwouldnothave Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 171 beenanticipatedwhentheIEAforecastwasbeingpre

-pared for publication.SimilarlytoIEAsChinaforecast,PELhasalowergrowthratethanthe IEO2005loweconomicgrowthcase,at4.0percentperyear.ThePELforecast(March 2004)isamongtheoldestoftheforecastsinthecompari

-songroup,and,aswithIEA,theunanticipatedexplosivegrowthinChinasenergydemandinthepastfewyears probablyexplainsthedifferencesbetweenthePELand

IEO2005forecasts.ThePIRAforecastforthe2002to2010periodisverysimilartothe IEO2005referencecasepro

-jectionsforthedevelopingworld,withtheexceptionoftheMiddleEast,wherePIRAprojectsgrowthinenergy demandwhichexceedsthatinthe IEO2005higheco-nomic growth case.

The IEO2005referencecaseforecastishigherthaninlastyearsoutlookforthe2000to2010period,particularly forthetransitionalEE/FSUandemergingeconomy regions.FortheEE/FSU,projectedgrowthinenergyuse issubstantiallyhigherin IEO2005thanin IEO2004 (withdemandgrowthaveraging2.0percentand1.1percent peryear,respectively,inthetwoforecasts).Inthecaseof theemergingeconomies,muchoftheupwardrevision canbeattributedtoChinaandtheotheremergingAsia nations,whereunexpectedlystronggrowthinenergy demandwasrecordedoverthepast2yearsandis reflectedinthe10-yearforecastperiod.Inthecaseofthe EE/FSU,thehigherforecastin IEO2005reflectssubstan-tiallyhigherexpectationsforeconomicgrowthoverthe timeperiod(5.6percentperyearin IEO2005and4.5percentperyearin IEO2004).Thisgrowthislargelyattributedtotheimpactofrecenthighworldoilprices

on oil exporters in the FSU.

IEO2005,PIRA,andPELprovideforecastsforenergyusein2015(TableH2),whichistheendofthePIRAfore

-casthorizon.Theirprojectionsforworldwidegrowthinenergyconsumptionbetween2002and2015varyfrom 2.0percentperyear(PEL)to2.6percentperyear(PIRA),

with IEO2005expectingaverageannualgrowthof2.3percent.Asitdoesfor2002-2010,PIRAforecastsmuch fastergrowthinenergyusefortheEE/FSUduring 2002-2015thandoes IEO2005.InChinaandtheMiddleEast,PIRAsenergygrowthprojectionsexceedthe

IEO2005higheconomicgrowthcaseforecasts.Whereas the IEO2005referencecaseanticipatesthatChinasenergydemandgrowthwillslowinthe2010to2015 period,PIRAdoesnot.ThePELgrowthratesare,forthe mostpart,fairlysimilartothoseinthe IEO2005 forecast.OnlythegrowthratesforChinaaresubstantiallylower thanthe IEO2005referencecase;itappearsthatPELdidnotanticipatethestrongnear-termgrowthinChina,and

this is reflected through the 2015 time horizon.

The IEO2005referencecaseprojectionofworldwidegrowthinenergyuse,at2.3percentperyearforthe2002 to2015period,ishigherthanwasprojectedin IEO2004.Byregion,thelargestdifferencesbetweenthetwofore-castsarewithinthedevelopingworld,withthe IEO2004forecastsforChina,otheremergingAsia,theMiddle East,andAfricafallingbelowthoseofthe IEO2005 loweconomicgrowthcase.Inallcases,theforecastsfor 172 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Table H1. Comparison of Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2002-2010 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Region IEO2005 IEO2004IEAPIRAPELLow GrowthReferenceHigh GrowthMature Market Economies. . . .0.91.21.51.21.41.21.1United States and Canada. . . . .1.41.62.01.71.41.21.2 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.50.70.51.11.21.0 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . .0.60.81.11.11.61.0 a 1.0Transitional Economies. . . . . .1.52.02.51.11.82.71.8 Emerging Economies. . . . . . . .3.84.45.02.63.14.53.4China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.26.87.43.63.46.74.0

Other Emerging Asia

b. . . . . . . .3.23.74.32.43.23.83.3Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.73.44.02.03.24.43.3 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.03.43.91.82.73.63.1 Latin America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.83.42.22.72.32.6Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.63.01.72.22.72.0 a Japan only.

b Other Asia includes India and South Korea.

Sources: IEO2005:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004),TableA1,p.163.

IEA: InternationalEnergyAgency,WorldEnergyOutlook2004(Paris,France,October2004),pp.430-517.

PIRA:PIRAEnergyGroup,RetainerClient Seminar(NewYork,NY,October2004).

PEL:PetroleumEconomics,Ltd.,WorldLongTermOilandEnergyOutlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

economicgrowtharesomewhathigher,particularlyforChina,in IEO2005thanin IEO2004.Thislargelyexplainstheupwardrevisioninenergyuseinthedeveloping

regions.IEO2005,PEL,andIEAprovideenergyconsumptionprojectionsfor2020(TableH3).Thethreeforecastshave similarprojectionsforenergydemandgrowthfrom2002to2020,projectingaverageannualincreasesintheworldstotalenergyconsumptionthatrangefrom1.9 percent(IEAandPEL)to2.1percent(IEO2005).Thehighestgrowthratesareprojectedfortheemerging economiesandtheslowestforthematuremarket economies.Thelargestvariationsamongtheregional forecastsareforChina,wheregrowthexpectationsfor energyuserangefrom2.9percentperyear(IEA)to4.6 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 173 Table H2. Comparison of Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2002-2015 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Region IEO2005 IEO2004PIRAPELLow GrowthReferenceHigh GrowthMature Market Economies. . . .0.91.11.41.21.11.0United States and Canada. . . . .1.21.51.81.61.11.2 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.50.80.61.10.8 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . .0.50.81.01.00.8 a 0.9Transitional Economies. . . . . .1.41.92.41.42.51.8 Emerging Economies. . . . . . . .3.23.84.42.74.33.2China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.85.46.03.76.23.8

Other Emerging Asia

b. . . . . . . .2.83.44.02.53.63.2Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.43.03.62.14.33.1 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.73.23.82.13.63.0 Latin America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.73.22.22.32.5Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.32.71.82.62.0 a Japan only.

b Other Asia includes India and South Korea.

Sources: IEO2005:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004),TableA1,p.163.

PIRA:PIRAEnergy Group,RetainerClientSeminar(NewYork,NY,October2004).

PEL:PetroleumEconomics,Ltd.,WorldLongTermOilandEnergy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

Table H3. Comparison of Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2002-2020 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Region IEO2005 IEO2004IEAPELLow GrowthReferenceHigh GrowthMature Market Economies. . . .0.81.01.31.21.11.0United States and Canada. . . . .1.21.41.71.51.11.2 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.50.70.60.90.7 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . .0.50.71.01.01.30.8Transitional Economies. . . . . .1.21.72.21.51.51.8 Emerging Economies. . . . . . . .2.83.44.02.72.83.1China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.04.65.23.62.93.6

Other Emerging Asia

b. . . . . . . .2.53.13.72.52.93.2Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.73.32.13.02.9 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.42.93.42.22.62.9 Latin America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.42.92.32.72.5Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.12.51.81.91.9 a Japan only.

b Other Asia includes India and South Korea.

Sources: IEO2005:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004),TableA1,p.163.

IEA: InternationalEnergyAgency,WorldEnergyOutlook2004(Paris,France,October2004),pp.430-517.

PEL:PetroleumEconomics,Ltd., World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

percentperyear(IEO2005).IEAismoreoptimisticthantheotherforecastsaboutenergydemandgrowthin maturemarketAsia,wherethe1.3-percentannualrate projectedbyIEAexceedstherateinthe IEO2005 high economic growth case.Aswasthecaseforthe2002-2010and2002-2015compar

-isons,Chinaistheregionwiththelargestdifferencesbetweenthe IEO2005 and IEO2004referencecasefore

-castsfor2002-2020.The IEO2005referencecaseprojectsannualenergydemandgrowthforChinathatisafull percentagepointhigherthaninlastyearsforecast,and lastyearsreferencecaseprojectionislowerthanthatin

the IEO2005 low economic growth case.

IEO2005andPELaretheonlyforecaststhatextendto2025(theIEAforecastextendsto2030,butnoforecastis profferedfor2025).Forthe2002to2025period(Table H4),thetwoforecastsarelargelyinagreement,withthe PELprojectionsfallingwithintherangeprovidedbythe

IEO2005lowandhigheconomicgrowthcases.Again,thelargestdifferencebetweenthetwoforecastsisfor China,withPELprojecting3.5-percentaverageannual growthinChinasenergydemandfrom2002to2025and

IEO2005 projecting a 4.1-percent average.Theforecastsvarynotonlywithrespecttolevelsoftotalenergydemandbutalsowithrespecttothemixofpri-maryenergyinputs.Alltheforecastsprovideenergy consumptionprojectionsbyfuelin2010(TableH5).

Thereisawiderangeofviewsamongtheforecasts regardingthemixoffuelsthatwillfulfillprojected demand.Whereas IEO2005andPIRAexpectcoaltobethefastestgrowingfuelsourceinthe2002to2010periodat3.1percentperyearand3.9percentperyear, respectivelyIEAandPELexpectmuchlowergrowth

for coal.IEO2005,IEA,andPELallprojectfairlystrongrelativegrowthinnuclearpowerdemandoverthetimeperiod, butPIRAprojectsworldwidenucleardemandgrowth ratesthatareabouthalfthoseoftheotherforecasts.IEA projectsmuchhighergrowthinrenewableenergyuse thananyoftheotherforecasts,althoughalltheforecasts expectgrowthinrenewablestoaverage2.0percentper yearorabovefrom2002to2010.Theexpectationsfor growthinoildemandrangefrom1.8percentperyear (PEL)to2.4percentperyear(IEO2005).Therelatively bullish IEO2005forecastforthe2002to2010periodisalmostentirelyduetoincreasesinChinasoildemand.

Alltheforecastsexpectrelativelystronggrowthinnatu

-ral gas use.

The IEO2005projectionsarehigherthanthe IEO2004projectionsforeachenergysource,largelyasaresultof theunanticipatedstrongexpansionofenergydemand inrecentyears.Thisyearsreassessmentofthe near-termforecastissoprofoundrelativetolastyears forecastthatthe IEO2004projectionsforeveryfueltypeexceptoilfallbelowthoseinthe IEO2005loweconomic growth case.PEL,PIRA,and IEO2005provideworldenergycon-sumptionprojectionsbyfuelfor2015(TableH6).PIRA remainsmuchmorebullishinitsprojectionsforcoal demandoverthistimeperiod,exceedingthe IEO2005 174 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Table H4. Comparison of Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2002-2025 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Region IEO2005 IEO2004 PELLow GrowthReferenceHigh GrowthMature Market Economies. . . .0.81.01.31.10.9United States and Canada. . . . .1.11.41.61.51.1 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . .0.30.50.80.70.6 Mature Market Asia. . . . . . . . . .0.50.71.01.00.7Transitional Economies. . . . . .1.21.62.11.51.7 Emerging Economies. . . . . . . .2.53.13.72.73.0China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.54.14.73.53.5

Other Emerging Asia

b. . . . . . . .2.32.93.52.53.1Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.53.12.12.8 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.73.22.32.9 Latin America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.32.72.52.4Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.02.41.81.9 a Japan only.

b Other Asia includes India and South Korea.

Sources: IEO2005:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004),TableA1,p.163.

PEL:PetroleumEco

-nomics, Ltd., World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

higheconomicgrowthcase.Incontrast,PELismuchmorepessimisticaboutcoaluseoverthe2002to2015 period,anditsprojectedgrowthrateforworldwidecoal demandislowerthanthatinthe IEO2005loweconomicgrowthcase.

IEO2005expectsnuclearpowertoexpandby1.3percentperyear,ascomparedwith0.9percentper yearinthePELforecastand0.7percentperyearinthe

PIRA forecast.

IEO2005,PEL,andIEAprovideenergyconsumptionprojectionsfor2020(TableH7).Thethreeforecasts largelyagreeaboutthegrowthratefortotalenergyuse, rangingfrom1.9percentperyear(PELandIEA)to2.1 percentperyear(I EO2005)between2002and2020.Thatsaid,theprojectedfuelmixesdifferamongtheforecasts.

Whereas IEO2005expectsnuclearpowergenerationtogrowby1.1percentperyearfrom2002to2020,bothIEA Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 175 Table H5. Comparison of World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2002-2010 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Fuel IEO2005 IEO2004IEAPIRAPELLow GrowthReferenceHigh GrowthOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.43.01.92.02.21.8Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . .1.92.43.01.72.72.83.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.83.13.51.31.83.91.6Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . .1.51.51.51.31.50.71.3Renewable/Other. . . . . .2.42.72.92.23.22.32.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.12.63.01.72.22.72.0 Sources: IEO2005:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004),TableA1,p.163.

IEA: InternationalEnergyAgency,WorldEnergyOutlook2004(Paris,France,October2004),pp.430-517.

PIRA:PIRAEnergyGroup,RetainerClient Seminar(NewYork,NY,October2004).

PEL:PetroleumEconomics,Ltd.,WorldLongTermOilandEnergyOutlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

Table H6. Comparison of World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2002-2015 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Fuel IEO2005 IEO2004PIRAPELLow GrowthReferenceHigh GrowthOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.22.71.92.11.8Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . .2.02.63.22.03.03.0Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.22.62.91.43.61.5Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . .1.31.31.31.20.70.9Renewable/Other. . . . . .1.72.22.32.12.42.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.32.71.82.62.0 Sources: IEO2005:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004).

PIRA:PIRAEnergyGroup, RetainerClientSeminar(NewYork,NY,October2004).

PEL:PetroleumEconomics,Ltd.,WorldLongTermOilandEnergyOutlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

Table H7. Comparison of World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2002-2020 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Fuel IEO2005 IEO2004IEAPELLow GrowthReferenceHigh GrowthOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.02.41.91.81.7Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . .1.92.42.92.12.62.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.92.32.71.51.61.5Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . .1.11.11.11.00.60.7Renewable/Other. . . . . .1.51.92.22.02.72.1Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.12.51.81.91.9 Sources: IEO2005:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004).

IEA:InternationalEnergyAgency,WorldEnergyOutlook2004(Paris,France,October2004),pp.430-517.

PEL:PetroleumEconomics,Ltd.,WorldLongTermOiland Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

andPELprojectmuchslowergrowth(0.6percentand0.7percentperyear,respectively).

IEO2005 projectssmallerincreasesinnaturalgasdemandthantheother twoforecasts.IEAismoreoptimisticaboutthegrowth potentialofrenewableenergysources,projecting 2.7-percentannualgrowthbetween2002and2020,as comparedwiththe IEO2005referencecaseprojectionof 1.9 percent and the PEL projection of 2.1 percent.Forthe2002to2020period,the IEO2005referencecaseprojectionsbyfuelaregenerallyhigherthaninlast yearsreport.Inparticular,coaldemandisexpectedto growby2.3percentperyearfrom2002to2020in

IEO2005,butin IEO2004coaldemandwasexpectedtoincreaseby1.5percentperyear.Theincreaseincoaluse relativetolastyearsoutlookisduetoincreasesin

demand among the emerging Asian economies.Asnotedabove,theonlytwoforecastsforthe2002to2025period, IEO2005andPEL,arelargelyinagreementwithrespecttotheincreaseintotalenergydemand (TableH8).PELprojectsanaverageannualgrowthrate of1.9percentfortotalworlddemandand IEO2005 2.0percentperyear.Thefuelmixdoesvarybetweenthe twoforecasts,withPELprojectingstrongergrowthin naturalgasusethan IEO2005(infact,PELsgrowthrateexceedstheprojectedrateinthe IEO2005higheconomicgrowthcase).Incontrast, IEO2005expectsstrongergrowthincoaluseandnuclearpower.The IEO2005 ref-erencecaseforecastshowsgenerallyhighergrowthona by-fuelbasisthanlastyearsreport,exceptforoil,which growsslightlyslowerinthe2002to2025period,and renewables,forwhichtheprojectedgrowthratesarethe

same in the IEO2004 and IEO2005 forecasts.

Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000Inanefforttomeasurehowwellthe IEO projectionshaveestimatedfutureenergyconsumptiontrendsover the20-yearhistoryoftheseries,acomparisonof IEOforecastsproducedfortheyears1990,1995,and2000is presentedhere.TheforecastsarecomparedwithactualdatapublishedinEIAsInternationalEnergyAnnual2002

,aspartofEIAscommitmenttoprovideusersofthe IEOwithasetofperformancemeasurestoassessthefore

-casts produced by this agency.

The IEOhasbeenpublishedsince1985.In IEO85,mid-termprojectionswerederivedonlyfortheworldsmar

-keteconomies.Thatis,noprojectionswerepreparedforthecentrallyplannedeconomies(CPE)oftheSoviet Union,EasternEurope,Cambodia,China,Cuba,Laos, Mongolia,NorthKorea,andVietnam.The IEO85 projec-tionsextendedto1995andincludedforecastsofenergyconsumptionfor1990and1995andprimaryconsump

-tionofoil,naturalgas,coal,andotherfuels.

IEO85projectionswerealsopresentedforseveralindividual countriesandsubregions:theUnitedStates,Canada, Japan,theUnitedKingdom,France,WestGermany, Italy,theNetherlands,otherOECDEurope,otherOECD (Australia,NewZealand,andtheU.S.Territories),

OPEC,andotherdevelopingcountries.Beginningwith

IEO86,nuclearpowerprojectionswerepublishedsepa

-rately from the other fuel category.Regionalaggregationshavechangedfromreporttoreport.In1990,thereportcoveragewasexpandedfor thefirsttimefromonlythemarketeconomiestothe entireworld.ProjectionsforChina,theFSU,andother CPEcountrieswereprovidedseparately.Startingwith

IEO94,theregionalpresentationwaschangedfrommar-keteconomiesandCPEcountriestoOECD,Eurasia (China,FSU,andEasternEurope),andRestofWorld.

Beginningin1995andessentiallycontinuinguntilthe currentissue,theregionalpresentationchangedtofur-thergrouptheworldaccordingtoeconomicdevelop

-ment:industrializednations(essentiallytheOECDbeforetheentryofSouthKoreaandtheEasternEuro

-peannations,theCzechRepublic,Hungary,Poland,andSlovakia),thetransitionaleconomiesoftheEE/FSU, and the developing world (including China and India).Theforecasttimehorizonhasalsochangedovertheyears(TableH9).Inthefirsteditionofthereport, IEO85 ,projectionsweremadefor1990and1995.

IEO86sawthe 176 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 Table H8. Comparison of World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2002-2025 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

Fuel IEO2005 IEO2004 PELLow GrowthReferenceHigh GrowthOil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.41.82.31.91.6Natural Gas. . . . . . . . . .1.82.32.82.22.9Coal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.72.12.51.61.4Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . .1.01.01.00.60.6Renewable/Other. . . . . .1.41.92.11.92.0Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.52.02.41.81.9 Sources: IEO2005:EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),SystemfortheAnalysisofGlobalEnergyMarkets(2005).

IEO2004: EIA,InternationalEnergyOutlook2004,DOE/EIA-0484(2004)(Washington,DC,April2004).

PEL:PetroleumEconomics,Ltd., World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

additionofprojectionyear2000.In IEO91,forecastswerenolongerpublishedfor1990,butforecastsfor2010 wereaddedtothereport.Theprojectionhorizonre

-mainedthesameuntil IEO96,whenprojectionyear2015wasadded.In1998,theforecastwasextendedagain,out to2020.With IEO2003,theforecastperiodwasextended to 2025.Comparisons of Forecasts for Market EconomiesProjectionsformarketeconomiesweremadeintheeightissuesofthe IEOthatwerepublishedbetween1985and1993(no IEOwaspublishedin1988).Historicaldatafortotalregionalenergyconsumptionin1990showthatthe

IEOprojectionsfromthoseearlyyearswereconsistentlylowerthantheactualdataforthemarketeconomies.For thefoureditionsofthe IEOprintedbetween1985and1989inwhich1990projectionswerepresented,totalpro

-jectedenergyconsumptioninthemarketeconomiesranbetween3and7percentbelowtheactualamountspub

-lishedintheInternationalEnergyAnnual2001 (Figure H1).Inaddition,marketeconomyprojectionsfor1995inthe1985through1993 IEOreports(EIAdidnotreleasefore-castsfor1995afterthe1993report)wereconsistently lowerthantheactual,historical1995data(FigureH2).

Mostofthedifferenceisattributedtothosemarketecon-omycountriesoutsidetheOECD.Throughtheyears, EIAseconomicgrowthassumptionsforOPECand othermarketeconomycountriesoutsidetheOECDhave beenlow.The1993forecastwas,asonemightexpect,themostaccurateoftheforecastsfor1995,butitsprojectionforOPECandtheothermarketeconomycountrieswas

still more than 10 percent below the actual number.Similarlytotheyear1995projections,year2000projec

-tionswerealsoconsistentlylowerthanactual2000dataineachofthe IEOspublishedbetween1986and1993(FigureH3).Theconsumptionestimatesforthemarket economiesincreasedineachedition,from265quadril

-lionBtuin IEO86to292quadrillionBtuin IEO93.Aslate Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 177 Table H9. Years Included in IEO Projections by Edition, 1985-2005Edition19901995200020052010201520202025 IEO85. . . .xx IEO86. . . .xxx IEO87. . . .xxx IEO89. . . .xxx IEO90. . . .xxx IEO91. . . .xxx IEO92. . . .xxx IEO93. . . .xxx IEO94. . . .xxx IEO95. . . .xxx IEO96. . . .xxxxx IEO97. . . .xxxx IEO98. . . .xxxxx IEO99. . . .xxxxx IEO2000. .xxxx IEO2001. .xxxx IEO2002. .xxxx IEO2003. .xxxxx IEO2004. .xxxx IEO2005. .xxxxSources:EnergyInformationAdministration,InternationalEnergy Outlook , DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various years).

242 234 228 225 225Actual1990 IEO89 IEO87 IEO86 IEO85050100150200250300QuadrillionBtu Figure H1. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1990 Energy Consumption in Market

EconomiesSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook,DOE/EIA-0484(Washington,DC,various years).274 269 268 260 258 256 251 245 247Actual1995 IEO93 IEO92 IEO91 IEO90 IEO89 IEO87 IEO86 IEO85050100150200250300350QuadrillionBtu Figure H2. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 Energy Consumption in Market

EconomiesSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook,DOE/EIA-0484(Washington,DC,various years).

as1993,the IEOforecastswereunderestimatingcon

-sumptionofallenergysourcesinthemarketeconomies,bybetween2percent(oil)and7percent(naturalgasand

nuclear power).Asnotedabove,inthe1994editionofthe IEO,there-gionalaggregationmarketeconomieswasdroppedaltogetherandreplacedwithdelineationofmember countriesoftheOECD,Eurasia,andRestofWorld (ROW).Asaresultofthatreorganization,itisnotpossi

-bletorecreateaforecastfortheCPEcountries:exceptforChina,theFSU,andEasternEurope,theremainingCPEcountriesnotedabovewereincludedinother

ROW.Comparisons of Forecasts for Year 1995 IEO90markedthefirstreleaseofaworldwideenergyconsumptionforecast.In IEO90 through IEO93,theforecastsforworldwideenergydemandin1995were between1and4percenthigherthantheactualamounts consumed(FigureH4).Muchofthedifferencecanbe explainedbytheunanticipatedcollapseoftheSoviet Unioneconomiesintheearly1990s.The IEO forecasterscouldnotforeseetheextenttowhichenergyconsump

-tionwouldfallintheFSUregion.In IEO90,totalenergyconsumptionintheFSUwasprojectedtoreach67qua

-drillionBtuin1995.Theprojectionwasreducedsteadilyinthenextthree IEOreports,butevenin IEO93 energydemandfor1995intheFSUregionwasprojectedtobe 53quadrillionBtu,ascomparedwithactual1995energy consumptionof43quadrillionBtuadifferenceequiva

-lent to about 5 million barrels of oil per day.Forecastsfor1995canalsobecomparedintermsoftheirdepictionofthefuelmix.Every IEOafter1990projectedtheshareofeachenergysourcerelativetototalenergy consumptionwithin2.6percentagepointsoftheactual 1995distribution.Theearliest IEOstendedtobetooopti-misticaboutthegrowthofcoaluseinthemarketecono-mies(FigureH5)andtoopessimisticabouttherecovery ofoilconsumptionafterthedeclinesintheearly1980s thatfollowedthepriceshockscausedbyoilembargoes in1973and1974andthe1979-1980revolutioninIran (FigureH6).The IEO85 and IEO86reportsprojectedthatoilwouldaccountforonlyabout40percentoftotal 178 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 306 292 290 280 276 274 270 265Actual2000 IEO93 IEO92 IEO91 IEO90 IEO89 IEO87 IEO86050100150200250300350QuadrillionBtu Figure H3. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 2000 Energy Consumption in Market

EconomiesSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook,DOE/EIA-0484(Washington,DC,various years).366 375 377 374 383Actual1995 IEO93 IEO92 IEO91 IEO900100200300400500QuadrillionBtu Figure H4. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 World Energy ConsumptionSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook,DOE/EIA-0484(Washington,DC,various years).2,363 2,326 2,270 2,287 2,363 2,356 2,382 2,411Actual1995 IEO93 IEO92 IEO91 IEO90 IEO87 IEO86 IEO8505001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000MillionShortTons Figure H5. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 Coal Consumption in Market

EconomiesSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook,DOE/EIA-0484(Washington,DC,various years).

energyconsumptionforthemarketeconomiesin1995,whereasoilactuallyaccountedfor45percentofthetotal

in 1995.The1995forecastsforworldcoalconsumptionthatappearedinthe IEOsprintedbetween1990and1993wereconsistentlyhigh,between5and17percenthigher thanactualcoaluse(FigureH7),largelybecauseofover

-estimatesfortheFSUandEasternEuroperegionsthatexperiencedsubstantialdeclinesincoalconsumption duringtheyearsfollowingthecollapseoftheSovietUnion.MostoftheprojectionsfortheFSUbyfuelweregreaterthantheactualconsumptionnumbers,withthe exceptionofhydroelectricityandotherrenewable resources(FigureH8).Naturalgasusedidnotdeclineas muchasoilandcoaluse,becausenaturalgasisaplenti

-fulresourceintheregionandwasusedextensivelytofuelthedomesticinfrastructure;however,eventhe IEOestimatesfor1995naturalgasusewere18to26percent

higher than the actual use.

The IEOprojectionsfortotalenergyconsumptioninChinawerebelowtheactual1995consumptionlevel

in IEO90(by13percent)and IEO91(by8percent)buthigherin IEO92(by6percent)andaboutthesame in IEO93.Theunderestimatesintheearlier IEOs bal-anced,inpart,theoverestimatesfortheEE/FSUcoun

-tries;however,eventhe4-to17-percentunderestimateofprojected1995coaluseinChinacouldnotmakeup Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 179 60 60 59 58 56 54 53 51 50Actual1995 IEO93 IEO92 IEO91 IEO90 IEO89 IEO87 IEO86 IEO85010203040506070MillionBarrelsperDay Figure H6. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 Oil Consumption in Market EconomiesSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook,DOE/EIA-0484(Washington,DC,various years).5,106 5,439 5,375 5,592 6,184Actual1995 IEO93 IEO92 IEO91 IEO9002,0004,0006,0008,000MillionShortTons Figure H7. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 World Coal ConsumptionSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook,DOE/EIA-0484(Washington,DC,various years).58 34 22 25 60 36 29 27 22 19 16 17 58 37 29 36 39 36 18 21 8-12-18-12 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93020406080100 40Total OilNaturalGas CoalNuclearRenewables/

OtherPercentDifferenceFromActual1995 Figure H8. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 Energy Consumption in the

Former Soviet Union by Fuel TypeSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook,DOE/EIA-0484(Washington,DC,various years).

forthe29-to58-percentoverestimateofFSUcoaluse.Intermsofotherfuels,the IEOforecastsconsistentlyover

-estimatedChinasnaturalgasconsumptionandunder

-estimateditsoilconsumption.NuclearpowerforecastswerefairlycloseforChina,within5percentoftheactual consumption(FigureH9).Itisnoteworthy,however, thatconsumptionofnaturalgasandnuclearpowerwas quitesmallin1995,sothatanyvariationbetweenactual historicalconsumptionandtheprojectionsresultsina largepercentagedifference.EIAconsistentlyunderesti

-matedeconomicgrowthinChina.Aslateas1993,EIAexpectedGDPinChinatogrowbyabout7.3percentper yearduringthedecadeofthe1990s,whereasitactually

grew by 10.7 percent per year between 1990 and 1995.

Comparisons of Forecasts for Year 2000Teneditionsofthe IEOreportcontainedworldwideforecastsfortheyear2000(IEO90 through IEO99).Theforecastsoftotalworldenergyconsumptionfor2000wereallabove,butwithin5percentof,theactualtotal (FigureH10).

IEO97providedthehighestestimateofworldenergyusein2000.Thismayseemsurprisingat firstglance,butitisalsotruethattheeconomicrecession thatwouldtakeholdin1998amongtheemergingecon

-omiesofsoutheastAsiahadnotoccurredandwasnotforeseeninthe IEO97forecast.Infact, IEO97 overesti-matedyear2000energyuseinemergingAsiaby9qua

-drillionBtu,orabout12percent(FigureH11),andinmaturemarketAsiaby3quadrillionBtu(9percent).

180 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 8 6 1-19-25-25-16 14 14 14 14-17-15-10-4-3 5 5-3-14-7-2-2 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO93 IEO90 IEO91 IEO92 IEO930204060-20-40Total OilNaturalGas CoalNuclearRenewables/

OtherPercentDifferenceFromActual1995 Figure H9. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 Energy Consumption in China

by Fuel TypeSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook,DOE/EIA-0484(Washington,DC,various years).399 403 413 416 407 403 404 410 410 402 408Actual2000 IEO99 IEO98 IEO97 IEO96 IEO95 IEO94 IEO93 IEO92 IEO91 IEO900100200300400500QuadrillionBtu Figure H10. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 2000 World Energy ConsumptionSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook,DOE/EIA-0484(Washington,DC,various years).119 70 30 59 91 15 13 19 118 67 28 52 81 20 12 21NorthAmericaWesternEuropeIndustrializedAsia EE/FSUDevelopingAsiaMiddleEastAfricaCentral&SouthAmerica020406080100120140QuadrillionBtu IEO97Actual2000 Figure H11. Comparison of IEO97 Forecasts with 2000 Energy Consumption by RegionSources:EnergyInformationAdministration, InternationalEnergyAnnual2002,DOE/EIA-0219(2002)(Washington,DC,March2004),websitewww.eia.doe.gov/iea/,and InternationalEnergyOutlook1997,DOE/EIA-0484(97)(Washington,DC, April 1997).

ProjectionsfortheEE/FSUin IEO97werealsotooopti

-mistic,overestimatingtherateofeconomicrecoveryintheregionandasaresultoverestimatingthegrowthin energyconsumptionby12quadrillionBtu(22percent).

IEO97didnotanticipatetheAugust1998devaluationoftheRussianrubleandtheeconomicrecessionthatfol

-lowedintheFSUregion.By IEO99,totalEE/FSUenergyusehadbeenadjusteddownwardto52quadrillion Btujustslightlylowerthantheregionsactualcon

-sumption in 2000.Theprojectionsforyear2000byfuelweremixedintermsofaccuracy.Forallenergysourcesexceptcoal, totalworldconsumptionforecastsfellwithin13percent oftheactuallevels.Aswasthecasewithforecastsforthe years1990and1995,worldcoalconsumptionprojec

-tionswereconsistentlyhighrelativetoactualconsump

-tionin2000.Theworldcoalforecastpresentedin IEO90was30percenthigherthanactual2000values.Thefore

-castsfortheCPEcountrieswereresponsibleforthelargediscrepancybetweenprojected IEO90andactualcoalconsumptionin2000.Infact, IEO90projectedthatthemarketeconomieswouldconsume2,801millionshort tonsofcoalin2000,andtheactualestimateforcoaluse amongthemarketeconomieswas2,969.However,in theCPEcountriesincludingtheEE/FSU IEO90 pro-jectedthatcoalusewouldclimbto3,841millionshort tonsin2000,whereasactualcoalconsumptionwasonly

2,119 million short tons.Muchofthediscrepancybetweenthe IEO90 projectionandactual2000coalconsumptioncanbeattributedto theFSU.Asnotedabove, IEO90didnotforeseethecol

-lapseoftheSovietregimein1990whenthereportpro

-jectionswereprepared.Indeed,coaluseintheFSUin IEO90wasexpectedtoexpandto1,132millionshorttonsin2000,whereasinrealitycoaluseintheFSUbegan todeclineprecipitouslyafter1990,hittingalowof391 millionshorttonsin1998beforeedgingupsomewhatto 405millionshorttonsin2000.ThestorywassimilarforEasternEuropeandtheotherCPEcountries(excludingChina),wherecoalusein2000wasoverestimatedby202

percent in IEO90.Theyear2000forecastsforoil,naturalgas,andhydro

-electricityandotherrenewableenergysourceswere,forthemostpart,higherthanactuallevels.Incontrast,pro

-jectionsfornuclearpowerwereconsistentlylowerthantheactual2000values.Interestingly,theforecastsforthe UnitedStateswerelargelyresponsiblefortheunderesti

-mation.Evenin IEO99thelatest IEOthatincludedprojectionsfor2000analystswereexpectingnuclear powertobegintodecline.In IEO90therewaswide

-spreadpessimismaboutthefutureofnuclearpowerinthemid-term,giventheaftermathofChernobylandthe problemsassociatedwithnuclearwastedisposal.Inthe politicalclimateoftheearly1990s, IEO90couldnotanticipatethelifeextensionsandconsistentlyimproving efficienciesthathaveallowednuclearpowerplantsto generatemoreelectricityandoperatewithshorter downtimesformaintenance,evenwithoutexpanding

their installed capacities.Thecomparisonof IEOprojectionsandhistoricaldatainthecontextofpoliticalandsocialeventsunderscoresthe importanceofthoseeventsinshapingtheworlds energymarkets.Suchcomparisonsalsopointouthow importantamodelsassumptionsaretothederivation ofaccurateforecasts.Thepoliticalandsocialupheavalin theEE/FSUdramaticallyaffectedtheaccuracyofthe projectionsfortheregion.Ifhighereconomicgrowth rateshadbeenassumedforChina,moreaccuratefore-castsforthatregionmighthavebeenachieved.Itis importantforusersofthe IEOoranyotherprojectionseriestorealizethelimitationsoftheforecasts.Failingan abilitytopredictfuturevolatilityinsocial,political,or economicevents,theprojectionsshouldbeviewedasa plausiblepathortrendforthefutureandnotasaprecise

prediction of future events.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 181

Appendix I System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE)TheprojectionsofworldenergyconsumptionappearinginthisyearsInternationalEnergyOutlook (IEO)arebasedontheEnergyInformationAdministrations(EIAs) internationalenergymodelingtool,Systemforthe AnalysisofGlobalEnergymarkets(SAGE).SAGEisan integratedsetofregionalmodelsthatprovideatechnol

-ogy-richbasisforestimatingregionalenergyconsump

-tion.Foreachregion,referencecaseestimatesof42end-useenergyservicedemands(e.g.,car,commercial truck,andheavytruckroadtravel;residentiallighting; steamheatrequirementsinthepaperindustry)are developedonthebasisofeconomicanddemographic projections.Projectionsofenergyconsumptiontomeet theenergydemandsareestimatedonthebasisofeach regionsexistingenergyusepatterns,theexistingstock ofenergy-usingequipment,andthecharacteristicsof availablenewtechnologies,aswellasnewsourcesof

primary energy supply.Period-by-periodmarketsimulationsaimtoprovideeachregionsenergyservicesatminimumcostbysimul-taneouslymakingend-useequipmentandprimary energysupplydecisions.Forexample,inSAGE,ifthere isanincreaseinresidentiallightingenergyservice, eitherexistinggenerationequipmentmustbeusedmore intensivelyornewequipmentmustbeinstalled.The choiceofgenerationequipment(typeandfuel)incorpo-ratesanalysisofboththecharacteristicsofalternative generationtechnologiesandtheeconomicsofprimary

energy supply.

The IEOprovidesprojectionsoftotalworldprimaryenergyconsumption,aswellasprojectionsofenergy consumptionbyprimaryenergytype(oil,naturalgas, coal,nuclear,andhydroelectricandotherrenewable resources)andprojectionsofnetelectricityconsump

-tion.Projectionsofcarbondioxideemissionsresultingfromfossilfuelusearealsoprovided.Allprojections arecomputedin5-yearintervalsthroughtheyear 2025.Further,moredetailedtablesthatemphasizetheend-usedemand-drivennatureofSAGEarenewto this years report.SAGEprovidesprojectionsfor15regionsorcountries,includingtheNorthAmericancountriesoftheUnited States,Canada,andMexico;WesternEurope;Japan; Australia/NewZealand;EasternEurope;theformer SovietUnion(FSU);China;India;SouthKorea;other developingAsia;theMiddleEast;Africa;andCentral andSouthAmerica.Anofflineprocedureisusedto developprojectionsforRussiaintheFSUandforBrazil

in Central and South America.ProjectionsofworldoilpricesovertheforecasthorizonareprovidedtoSAGEfromEIAsInternationalEnergy Module,whichisasubmoduleoftheNationalEnergy ModelingSystem(NEMS).Projectionsofworldnuclear energyconsumptionarederivedfromnuclearpower electricitygenerationprojectionsfromEIAsInterna-tionalNuclearModel(INM),PCVersion(PC-INM).All U.S.projectionsaretakenfromEIAsAnnualEnergyOut-look (AEO).AfulldescriptionoftheSAGEmodelisavailableinatwo-volumeset.Thefirstvolumeprovidesageneral understandingofthemodelsdesign,theoreticalbasis, necessaryuser-definedassumptions,andoutput.Italso liststhesoftwarenecessarytodevelopandanalyzethe resultsofSAGE-basedpolicyandenergymarketscenar

-ios.Inaddition,VolumeIincludesaReferenceGuide,whichexplainseachequationindetail.Thesecondvol

-umeservesasaUsersGuideforthoseactivelydevelop

-ingSAGE-basedscenarioanalyses.ThedocumentationisavailableonEIAswebsiteinthemodeldocumenta

-tionsectionofCurrentPublications(http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html).SAGEdocumentation isalsoavailableaspartofthedocumentationforthe MARKALfamilyofmodels(http://www.etsap.org/

MRKLDOC-III_SAGE.pdf).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 183

Appendix J Regional DefinitionsThesixbasiccountrygroupingsusedinthisreport (Figure J1) are defined as follows:

MatureMarketEconomies(15percentofthe2005worldpopulation):NorthAmericaUnitedStates,Canada,andMexico;WesternEuropeAustria,Bel

-gium,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Iceland,Ireland,Italy,Luxembourg,theNether

-lands,Norway,Portugal,Spain,Sweden,Switzer

-land,andtheUnitedKingdom;MatureMarket AsiaJapan, Australia, and New Zealand.

TransitionalEconomies(6percentofthe2005world population):EasternEurope(EE)Albania,BosniaandHerzegovina,Bulgaria,Croatia,CzechRepublic, Hungary,Macedonia,Poland,Romania,Serbiaand Montenegro,Slovakia,andSlovenia;FormerSovietUnion(FSU)Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Esto-nia,Georgia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Lithu-ania,Moldova,Russia,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

EmergingEconomies(78percentofthe2005world population):

-EmergingAsia(53percentofthe2005worldpopu

-lation)Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,Brunei,Cambodia(Kampuchea),China,Fiji,FrenchPoly

-nesia,Guam,HongKong,India,Indonesia,Kiribati,Laos,Malaysia,Macau,Maldives,Mongo

-lia,Myanmar(Burma),Nauru,Nepal,NewCaledo

-nia,Niue,NorthKorea,Pakistan,PapuaNewGuinea,Philippines,Samoa,Singapore,Solomon Islands,SouthKorea,SriLanka,Taiwan,Thailand, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Vietnam.

-MiddleEast(4percentofthe2005worldpopula

-tion)Bahrain,Cyprus,Iran,Iraq,Israel,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,SaudiArabia, Syria,Turkey,theUnitedArabEmirates,and

Yemen.-Africa(14percentofthe2005worldpopulation)Algeria,Angola,Benin,Botswana,BurkinaFaso, Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 185KeyAfricaIndustrialized CountriesEE/FSUDeveloping AsiaMiddle EastCentral and South America Figure J1. Map of the Six Basic Country Groupings Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

Burundi,Cameroon,CapeVerde,CentralAfricanRepublic,Chad,Comoros,Congo(Brazzaville),

Congo(Kinshasa),Djibouti,Egypt,Equatorial Guinea,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Gabon,Gambia,Ghana, Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,IvoryCoast,Kenya, Lesotho,Liberia,Libya,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali, Mauritania,Mauritius,Morocco,Mozambique, Namibia,Niger,Nigeria,Reunion,Rwanda,Sao TomeandPrincipe,Senegal,Seychelles,Sierra Leone,Somalia,SouthAfrica,St.Helena,Sudan, Swaziland,Tanzania,Togo,Tunisia,Uganda, Western Sahara, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

-CentralandSouthAmerica(7percentofthe2005worldpopulation)Antarctica,AntiguaandBar

-buda,Argentina,Aruba,BahamaIslands,Barba

-dos,Belize,Bolivia,Brazil,BritishVirginIslands,CaymanIslands,Chile,Colombia,CostaRica, Cuba,Dominica,DominicanRepublic,Ecuador, ElSalvador,FalklandIslands,FrenchGuiana, Grenada,Guadeloupe,Guatemala,Guyana,Haiti, Honduras,Jamaica,Martinique,Montserrat,Neth

-erlandsAntilles,Nicaragua,PanamaRepublic,Par-aguay,Peru,PuertoRico,St.Kitts-Nevis,St.Lucia, St.Vincent/Grenadines,Suriname,Trinidadand Tobago,TurksandCaicosIslands,Uruguay,U.S.

Virgin Islands, and Venezuela.Inaddition,thefollowingcommonlyusedcountry groupings are referenced in this report:

Countriesthathaveratified,accepted,acceded,orapprovedtheKyotoClimateChangeProtocolon GreenhouseGasEmissionsasofMay27,2005:

Albania,Algeria,AntiguaandBarbuda,Argentina, Armenia,Austria,Azerbaijan,Bahamas,Bangla

-desh,Barbados,Belgium,Belize,Benin,Bhutan,Bolivia,Botswana,Brazil,Bulgaria,BurkinaFaso, Burundi,Cambodia,Cameroon,Canada,Chile, China,Colombia,CostaRica,Cuba,Cyprus,Czech Republic,Congo(Kinshasa),Denmark,Djibouti, Dominica,DominicanRepublic,Ecuador,Egypt,El Salvador,EquatorialGuinea,Estonia,Ethiopia,Fiji, Finland,France,Gambia,Georgia,Germany,Ghana, Greece,Grenada,Guatemala,Guinea,Guyana,Hon

-duras,Hungary,Iceland,India,Indonesia,Ireland,Israel,Italy,Jamaica,Japan,Jordan,Kenya,Kiribati, Kuwait,Kyrgyzstan,Laos,Latvia,Lesotho,Liberia, Liechtenstein,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Madagascar, Malawi,Malaysia,Maldives,Mali,Malta,Marshall Islands,Mauritius,Mexico,Micronesia,Mongolia, Morocco,Mozambique,Myanmar,Namibia,Nauru, Netherlands,NewZealand,Nicaragua,Niger, Nigeria,Niue,NorthKorea,Norway,Oman,Paki

-stan,Palau,Panama,PapuaNewGuinea,Paraguay,Peru,Philippines,Poland,Portugal,Qatar,Moldova,Romania,Russia,Rwanda,SaintLucia,St.Vincent/

Grenadines,Samoa,SaudiArabia,Senegal,Sey

-chelles,Slovakia,Slovenia,SolomonIslands,SouthAfrica,SouthKorea,Spain,SriLanka,Sudan,Swe

-den,Switzerland,Tanzania,Thailand,Macedonia,Togo,TrinidadandTobago,Tunisia,Turkmenistan, Tuvalu,Uganda,Ukraine,UnitedArabEmirates, UnitedKingdom,Uruguay,Uzbekistan,Vanuatu, Venezuela, Vietnam, and Yemen.

AnnexICountries(countriesparticipatingintheKyotoClimateChangeProtocolonGreenhouseGas Emissions):Australia,Austria,Belgium,Bulgaria, Canada,Croatia,CzechRepublic,Denmark,Estonia, EuropeanCommunity,Finland,France,Germany, Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Italy,Japan,Lat

-via,Liechtenstein,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Monaco,theNetherlands,NewZealand,Norway,Poland, Portugal,Romania,Russia,Slovakia,Slovenia, Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Ukraine,andthe

United Kingdom.

20*EuropeanUnion(EU):Austria,Belgium,Cyprus,CzechRepublic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France, Germany,Greece,Hungary,Ireland,Italy,Latvia, Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,theNetherlands, Poland,Portugal,Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

G8:Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,Russia, United Kingdom, and the United States.

NorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA)MemberCountries:Canada,Mexico,andtheUnited States.*OrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD):Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,CzechRepublic,Denmark,Finland,France, Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Italy, Japan,Luxembourg,Mexico,theNetherlands,New Zealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Slovakia,South Korea,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Turkey,the

United Kingdom, and the United States.

OrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries (OPEC):Algeria,Indonesia,Iran,Iraq,Kuwait,Libya,Nigeria,Qatar,SaudiArabia,theUnitedArab

Emirates, and Venezuela.

PacificRimDevelopingCountries:HongKong,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,South

Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.

PersianGulf:Bahrain,Iran,Iraq,Kuwait,Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

186 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 20TurkeyandBelarusareAnnexInationsthathavenotratifiedtheFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeanddidnotcommittoquantifiableemissionstargetsundertheKyotoProtocol.In2001,theUnitedStateswithdrewfromtheProtocol.In2002,Australia announcedthatitwillnotratifytheKyotoProtocolunlesstheUnitedStatesdoes.

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