ML060940480

Doe/Eia 2005, Website Reference Used in Chapter 8 NMP FSEIS

ML060940480
Person / Time
Site:	Nine Mile Point
Issue date:	06/15/2005
From:	US Dept of Energy, Office of Integrated Analysis & Forecasting
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
DOE/EIA-0484(2005)
Download: ML060940480 (194)

Text

DOE/EIA-0484(2005)

International Energy Outlook 2005 July 2005 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This publication is on the WEB at:

www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or of any other organization.

Contacts The International Energy Outlook is prepared by the Ener- Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

gy Information Administration (EIA). General questions Specific questions about the report should be referred concerning the contents of the report should be referred to Linda E. Doman (202/586-1041) or the following to John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2222), analysts:

World Energy and Economic Outlook. . . Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041)

Macroeconomic Assumptions . . . . . . Nasir Khilji (nasir.khilji@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1294)

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector Residential Energy Use . . . . . . . . . . . John Cymbalsky (john.cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4815)

Commercial Energy Use. . . . . . . . . . . Erin Boedecker (erin.boedecker@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-4791)

Industrial Energy Use. . . . . . . . . . . . . Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041)

Transportation Energy Use . . . . . . . . Eugene Reiser (eugene.reiser@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-5840)

World Oil Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G. Daniel Butler (george.butler@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-9503)

World Oil Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Linda Doman (linda.doman@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-1041)

Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Justine Barden (justine.barden@eia.doe.gov 202-586-3508)

Phyllis Martin (phyllis.martin@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-9592)

Gas to Liquids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Aloulou Fawzi (aloulou.fawzi@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-7818)

Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Michael Mellish (michael.mellish@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2136)

Diane Kearney (diane.kearney@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-2415)

Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . John Staub (john.staub@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-6344)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . Perry Lindstrom (perry.lindstrom@eia.doe.gov, 202-586-0934)

Electronic Access and Related Reports IEO2005 will be available on CD-ROM and on the EIA Home Page (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html) by Sep-tember 2005, including text, forecast tables, and graphics. To download the entire publication in Portable Document Format (PDF), go to http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/0484(2005).pdf.

For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIAs National Energy Information Center. Addresses, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows:

National Energy Information Center, EI-30 Energy Information Administration Forrestal Building Washington, DC 20585 Telephone: 202/586-8800 E-mail: infoctr@eia.doe.gov TTY: For people who are deaf World Wide Web Site: http://www.eia.doe.gov or hard of hearing: 202/586-1181 Gopher Site: gopher://gopher.eia.doe.gov 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., eastern time, M-F FTP Site: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov ii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Contents Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 World Energy and Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Outlook for World Energy Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 World Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Alternative Growth Cases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Trends in Energy Intensity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Residential Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Commercial Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Industrial Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Transportation Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 World Oil Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 World Oil Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 World Oil Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 The Composition of World Oil Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Worldwide Petroleum Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Reserves and Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Regional Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Regional Demand Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Net Electricity Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Electricity Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Reference Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Kyoto Protocol Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 iii

Appendixes A. Reference Case Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 B. High Economic Growth Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 C. Low Economic Growth Case Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 D. Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 E. Projections of Oil Production Capacity and Oil Production in Three Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 F. Projections of Nuclear Generating Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 G. Key Assumptions for the IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 H. Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 . . . . . . . . . 171 I. System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 J. Regional Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 Tables

1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1990-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

2. Average Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic Product by Selected Countries and Regions, 1979-2025 . . . . 11

3. Transportation Energy Consumption and Total Oil Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

4. Estimated World Oil Resources, 1995-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

5. OPEC Oil Production, 1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

6. Non-OPEC Oil Production, 1990-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

7. Worldwide Petroleum Trade in the Reference Case, 2002 and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

8. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country as of January 1, 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

9. World Coal Flows by Importing and Exporting Regions, Reference Case, 2003, 2015, and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

11. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

12. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Participating Annex I Countries in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

13. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Canada in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 . . . . . . . . 84

14. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Western Europe in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

15. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Japan in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . 85 Figures

1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2. World Marketed Energy Use by Energy Type, 1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

3. World Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

4. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005 Projections for World Nuclear Generating Capacity, 2010-2025 . . . . . . . . 4

5. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

6. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Two Cases, 1990, 2010, and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

7. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

8. World Marketed Energy Use by Region, 1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

9. Marketed Energy Use in the Emerging Economies by Region, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

10. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

11. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005 Projections for the U.S. Refiner Acquisition Cost of Imported Crude Oil, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

12. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005 Projections for World Coal Consumption by Region, 2015 and 2025 . . . . . 9

13. Fuel Shares of World Electricity Generation, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

14. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005 Projections for World Nuclear Generating Capacity, 2010-2025 . . . . . . . . 10

15. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases, 1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

16. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Mature Market Economies, 1970-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . 15

17. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Emerging Economies, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

18. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Transitional Economies, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

19. Energy Intensity by Region, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

20. Residential Sector Energy Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

21. Growth in Residential Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

22. Commercial Sector Energy Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

23. Growth in Commercial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 iv Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Figures (Continued)

24. Industrial Sector Energy Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

25. Growth in Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, 2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

26. Average Annual Growth Rates for Industrial Energy Consumption in Emerging Economies, 2002-2025. . . . . . . 21

27. Transportation Sector Energy Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

28. World Oil Consumption by End-Use Sector, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

29. World Oil Consumption by Region and Country Group, 2002 and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

30. World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

31. World Oil Production in the Reference Case by Region, 1970, 2002, 2010, and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

32. OPEC, Non-OPEC, and Nonconventional Oil Production in the Reference Case, 2002 and 2010-2025 . . . . . . . . . 30

33. Imports of Persian Gulf Oil by Importing Region, 2002 and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

34. World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

36. Increases in Natural Gas Consumption by Region and Country Group, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

37. Natural Gas Production by Region, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

38. Natural Gas Consumption in Mature Market Economies by Source, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

39. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region, 1975-2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

40. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region as of January 1, 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

41. World Natural Gas Resources by Region, 2005-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

42. Natural Gas Consumption in North America by Country, 1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

43. Natural Gas Supply in North America by Source, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

44. Natural Gas Consumption in Western Europe by Source, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

45. Natural Gas Consumption in Transitional Economies, 1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

46. Natural Gas Consumption in Emerging Asia, 1990-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

47. Natural Gas Consumption in the Middle East, 1990-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

48. Natural Gas Consumption in Africa, 1990-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

49. Natural Gas Consumption in Central and South America, 1990-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

50. World Coal Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

51. Coal Share of World Energy Consumption by Sector, 2002, 2015, and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

52. World Recoverable Coal Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

53. World Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2002, 2015, and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

54. Coal Share of Total Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

55. Coal Consumption in China by Sector, 2002, 2015, and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

56. World Coal Trade, 1985, 2003, 2015, and 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

57. Coal Imports by Major Importing Region, 1995-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

58. World Net Electricity Consumption, 2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

59. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

60. World Electricity Generation Capacity by Region, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

61. Fuel Shares of World Electricity Generation, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

62. World Coal-Fired Generation Capacity by Region, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

63. World Natural-Gas- and Oil-Fired Generation Capacity by Region, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

64. Nuclear Shares of National Electricity Generation, 2004. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

65. World Nuclear Power Generation Capacity by Region, 2002-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

66. World Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Generation Capacity by Region, 2002-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

67. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

68. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

69. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Mature Market Economies, 1990-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

70. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Transitional Economies, 1990-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

71. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Emerging Economies, 1990-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 v

Preface This report presents international energy projections through 2025, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions.

The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) presents Canada, and Mexico); Western Europe; and mature an assessment by the Energy Information Administra- market Asia (Japan and Australia/New Zealand). The tion (EIA) of the outlook for international energy mar- emerging economies are represented by four separate kets through 2025. U.S. projections appearing in regional subgroups: emerging Asia, Africa, Middle East, IEO2005 are consistent with those published in EIAs and Central and South America. China, India, and South Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005), which was pre- Korea are represented in emerging Asia, and Brazil is pared using the National Energy Modeling System represented in Central and South America. The transi-(NEMS). Although the IEO typically uses the same refer- tional economies include projections for Eastern Europe ence case as the AEO, IEO2005 has adopted the October and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU). Russia is repre-futures case from AEO2005 as its reference case for the sented in the FSU.

United States. The October futures case, which has an assumption of higher world oil prices than the AEO2005 The report begins with a review of world trends in reference case, now appears to be a more likely projec- energy demand and the major macroeconomic assump-tion. The reference case prices will be reconsidered for tions used in deriving the IEO2005 projections. The time the next AEO. Based on information available as of July frame for historical data begins with 1970 and extends to 2005, the AEO2006 reference case will likely reflect 2002, providing a 32-year historical view of energy world oil prices higher than those in the IEO2005 refer- demand, and the projections extend to 2025, providing a ence case. 23-year forecast period. High economic growth and low economic growth cases were developed to depict a set of IEO2005 is provided as a service to energy managers and alternative growth paths for the energy forecast. The analysts, both in government and in the private sector. two cases consider higher and lower growth paths for The projections are used by international agencies, Fed- regional gross domestic product (GDP) than assumed in eral and State governments, trade associations, and the reference case. The resulting projectionsand the other planners and decisionmakers. They are published uncertainty associated with international energy projec-pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act tions in generalare discussed in Chapter 1, World of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). Energy and Economic Outlook.

The IEO2005 projections are based on U.S. and foreign New to this report are regional projections of end-use government laws in effect on March 1, 2005. The poten- energy consumption in the residential, commercial, tial impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regula- industrial, and transportation sectors. Chapter 2 reviews tions, and standards are not reflected in the projections, worldwide forecasts for end-use sector energy con-nor are the impacts of legislation where the mechanisms sumption. Regional projections for energy consumption for implementing the legislation have not yet been by fuelpetroleum, natural gas, and coalare pre-announced. For example, the IEO2005 reference case sented in Chapters 3, 4, and 5, along with reviews of the forecast does not include the potential impacts of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Chapter Kyoto Protocol (which entered into force on February 6 discusses the projections for world electricity mar-16, 2005), because the treaty does not indicate the meth- ketsincluding nuclear power, hydropower, and other ods by which signatories will implement the Protocol. commercial renewable energy resourcesand presents The Kyoto Protocol also does not address signatory obli- forecasts of world installed generating capacity, which gations beyond the 2012 time frame, making it impossi- are new to this years report. Finally, Chapter 7 discusses ble in the context of a reference case projection for EIA to the outlook for global carbon dioxide emissions. With assess the impacts of the Protocol through 2025, the end the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol on February 16, of the IEO2005 forecast horizon. 2005, this years outlook includes a Kyoto Protocol sce-nario, which is also presented in Chapter 7.

Projections in IEO2005 are displayed according to three basic country groupings (see Appendix J for complete Appendix A contains summary tables of the IEO2005 regional definitions). The mature market economies reference case projections for world energy consump-include projections for North America (United States, tion, GDP, energy consumption by fuel, carbon dioxide Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 vii

emissions, and regional population growth. The refer- summary tables of projections for world oil production ence case projections of total foreign energy consump- capacity and oil production in the reference case and in tion and consumption of oil, natural gas, coal, and two alternative cases, the high and low world oil price renewable energy were prepared using EIAs System for cases. The projections in Appendix E were derived from the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE), as were the International Energy Module of NEMS. Appendix F projections of net electricity consumption, energy con- contains summary tables of projections for nuclear sumed by fuel and region by end-use sector, and carbon capacity in four nuclear growth cases. Appendix G dioxide emissions. In addition, the NEMS Coal Export provides a summary of assumptions underlying the Submodule was used to derive flows in international IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol case. Appendix H includes a coal trade, presented in Chapter 5. set of comparisons of alternative forecasts with the IEO2005 projections, as well as comparisons of historical Summary tables of projections for the high and low IEO forecasts with actual historical data. Comparisons economic growth cases are provided in Appendixes B of the IEO2005 and IEO2004 forecasts are also presented and C, respectively, and reference projections of deliv- in Appendix H. Appendix I describes the SAGE model, ered energy consumption by end-use sector and region and Appendix J defines the regional designations in-are presented in Appendix D. Appendix E contains cluded in the report.

Objectives of the IEO2005 Projections The projections in IEO2005 are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used. These projections provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze international energy markets. As a policy-neutral data and analysis organization, EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. The projections are based on U.S. and foreign government laws effective as of March 1, 2005. Assuming fixed laws, even knowing that changes will occur, will naturally result in projections that differ from the final data.

Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities, regulatory activities, and producer and consumer behavior. The forecasts are highly dependent on the data, analytical methodologies, model structures, and specific assumptions used in their development. Trends depicted in the analysis are indicative of tendencies in the real world rather than representations of specific real-world outcomes. Even where trends are stable and well understood, the projections are subject to uncertainty. Many events that shape energy markets are random and can-not be anticipated, and assumptions concerning future technology characteristics, demographics, and resource availability cannot be known with certainty.

viii Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2002 to 2025.

Much of the growth in worldwide energy use in the IEO2005 reference case forecast is expected in the countries with emerging economies.

In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) refer- modest. In the case of the mature market economies, ence case, world marketed energy consumption is pro- well-established energy consumption patterns and jected to increase on average by 2.0 percent per year over infrastructure, along with a shift from energy-intensive the 23-year forecast horizon from 2002 to 2025slightly industries to services, lead to a projected growth rate for lower than the 2.2-percent average annual growth rate energy demand that averages 1.1 percent per year over from 1970 to 2002. Worldwide, total energy use is pro- the projection period, compared with 3.2 percent per jected to grow from 412 quadrillion British thermal units year in the emerging economies. Although a robust eco-(Btu) in 2002 to 553 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 645 qua- nomic growth projection for the transitional economies drillion Btu in 2025 (Figure 1). should spur energy demand, the outlook for growth in the regions energy use is moderated somewhat by pro-Emerging economies account for much of the projected jected declines (i.e., improvements) in energy intensity growth in marketed energy consumption over the next as the EE/FSU countries continue to replace older, inef-two decades, with energy use in the group more than ficient capital stock.

doubling by 2025. Strong projected economic growth drives the demand for energy use in the region. Eco- Trends in end-use sector energy consumption can vary nomic activity, as measured by gross domestic product widely, according to the level and pace of economic (GDP) in purchasing power parity terms, is expected to development in a given region. On a worldwide basis, expand by 5.1 percent per year in the emerging econo- the industrial and transportation sectors show the fast-mies, as compared with 2.5 percent per year in the est growth in the IEO2005 reference case, averaging 2.1 mature market economies and 4.4 percent per year in the percent per year in both sectors. Slower growth is pro-transitional economies of Eastern Europe and the former jected in the residential and commercial sectors, averag-Soviet Union (EE/FSU). ing 1.5 percent and 1.9 percent per year, respectively, from 2002 to 2025 for the world as a whole. In the mature In contrast to the emerging economies, increases in market economies, where population growth generally energy consumption for the mature market economies is slow or negative over the forecast, energy use in the and transitional economies are projected to be more commercial sector grows at a faster pace (1.3 percent per Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by year) than in any other end-use sector, based on expecta-Region, 1970-2025 tions of rapid increases in the use of new telecommuni-cations technologies and office equipment as these Quadrillion Btu 1,000 nations continue to shift to service economies.

History Projections In the EE/FSU transitional economies, energy demand 800 in the industrial and transportation sectors is projected Emerging Economies 645 to grow on average by 1.6 percent per year from 2002 to Transitional Economies 598 600 553 2025, and slow or negative population growth as well as Mature Market Economies 504 improvements in energy efficiency are expected to lead 412 to lower growth rates for energy demand in the residen-400 348 366 285 310 tial and commercial sectors. In the emerging countries, 243 in contrast, strong growth in demand for energy is pro-207 200 jected for every end-use sector, ranging from 3.1 percent per year in the residential sector to 3.6 percent per 0 year in the commercial and transportation sectors. The 70 75 80 85 90 95 02 10 15 20 25 higher growth rates reflect the relatively rapid economic 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 and population growth expected for the emerging Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), economies.

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ In the IEO2005 reference case, the use of all energy iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global sources increases over the forecast period (Figure 2).

Energy Markets (2005). Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) continue to supply Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 1

much of the energy used worldwide, and oil remains the more than $9 per barrel (in nominal dollars) over the dominant energy source, given its importance in the course of 2004 and are expected to add an additional $11 transportation and industrial end-use sectors. Non- per barrel in 2005, brought about by tight oil market con-fossil fuel use also grows over the forecast, but not as ditions that include low inventory levels, surging rapidly as fossil fuel use. The outlook for non-fossil fuels demand in emerging Asia, and the situation in Iraq; could, however, be altered by government policies or however, such developments are not indicative of the programs, such as environmental laws aimed at limiting long-term trend in the IEO2005 reference case. From or reducing pollutants from the combustion of fossil fuel anticipated high levels throughout 2005, world oil prices consumption and encouraging the use of non-fossil decline gradually through 2010 to $31 per barrel (in 2003 fuels. dollars) before beginning to rise to about $35 per barrel in 2025. Based on information available as of July 2005, The IEO2005 reference case has adopted the Annual the AEO2006 reference case will likely reflect world oil Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005) October futures case, prices higher than those in the IEO2005 reference case.

which has an assumption of higher prices than the AEO2005 reference case and now appears to be a more World oil use is expected to grow from 78 million barrels likely projection for oil prices. World oil prices rose by per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per day in 2015 and Regional Definitions in the International Energy Outlook 2005 Regular readers of the International Energy Outlook mature market economies include the countries of (IEO) will notice that, in this edition, the names used to North America (the United States, Canada, and Mex-describe country groupings have been changed. ico), Western Europe, and mature market Asia Although the organization of countries within the (Japan, Australia, and New Zealand). The grouping of three major groupings has not changed, the nomencla- countries may be subject of some debate. For example, ture used in previous editions to describe the groups some may argue that Mexico should not be considered namely, industrialized, EE/FSU, and developing a mature market economy; however, it is included in had become somewhat dated and did not accurately North America because of its importance in energy reflect the countries within them. Some analysts have trade in the region.

argued that several of the countries in the develop-ing group (South Korea and China, for instance) could The transitional economies include those nations that fairly be called industrialized today. are transitioning away from the centrally planned economies of the Soviet Union to free market econo-IEO2005 uses country grouping designations based on mies. This region is subdivided into Eastern Europe relative levels of economic development. The three (EE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU), and within the major groupings (or regions) used in this report are FSU separate projections are provided for Russia.

the mature market economies, transitional economies, Although several countries in Eastern Europe, notably and emerging economies. The mature market econo- the Czech Republic and Poland, may be seen as mies include nations whose energy markets are gener- approaching the same level of economic development ally well-established, and whose industrial sectors as their Western European neighbors, the Eastern have trended away from more energy-intensive manu- Europe aggregation still is useful, particularly given its facturing industries toward less energy-intensive ser- importance to analysis of the impacts of the Kyoto Pro-vice industries. As shown in the map below, the tocol: in most of the EE/FSU countries, carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 are expected to be well below their IEO2005 World Regions emissions targets for the first commitment period of the Protocol (2008-2012). Thus, in a modeling sense, the traditional grouping is useful.

The emerging economies include those countries whose economies are currently less developed, but whose energy use patterns, in general, are expected to begin resembling those of the mature market econo-mies over the next two decades. The nations in this region, which typically have fairly energy-intensive industrial sectors, include such rapidly growing econo-mies as China and India. Emerging Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Central and South America are regional subgroups in the emerging economies region.

2 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

119 million barrels per day in 2025. The projection for oil 2002 to 2025, consumption of natural gas is projected to demand in 2025 is somewhat lower than the 121 million increase by 69 percent, from 92 trillion cubic feet to 156 barrels per day forecast in last years outlook, due in trillion cubic feet, and its share of total energy consump-large part to higher world oil price projections in tion is projected to grow from 23 percent to 25 percent.

IEO2005. Higher sustained world oil prices in this years The electric power sector accounts for 51 percent of the forecast dampen the mid-term projections in many parts total incremental growth in worldwide natural gas of the world, particularly in the mature market and tran- demand over the forecast period (Figure 3).

sitional economies. The impact of higher oil prices on demand would be even greater if not for the robust Natural gas is seen as a desirable alternative for electric-growth expected in China in the short term. Chinas oil ity generation in many parts of the world, given its rela-use is projected to grow by an annual average of 7.5 per- tive efficiency in comparison with other energy sources, cent from 2002 to 2010, before slowing to 2.9 percent per as well as the fact that it burns more cleanly than either year for the remainder of the forecast. coal or oil and thus is an attractive alternative for coun-tries pursuing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

The projected increment in worldwide oil use would Natural gas is also an important energy resource in the require an increment in world oil production capacity of industrial sector. The industrial sector accounts for 36 42 million barrels per day over 2002 levels. Members of percent of the growth in world natural gas demand over the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries the 2002-2025 period.

(OPEC) are expected to be the major suppliers of the increased production that will be required to meet World coal consumption is projected to increase from demand, and they account for 60 percent of the projected 5,262 million short tons in 2002 to 7,245 million short increase in world capacity. In addition, non-OPEC sup- tons in 2015, at an average rate of 2.5 percent per year.

pliers are expected to add nearly 17 million barrels per From 2015 to 2025, the projected rate of increase in world day of oil production capacity between 2002 and 2025. coal consumption slows to 1.3 percent annually, and Substantial increments in new non-OPEC oil supply are total consumption in 2025 is projected at 8,226 million expected to come from the Caspian Basin, Western short tons. Of the coal produced worldwide in 2002, 65 Africa, and Central and South America. percent was shipped to electric power producers and 31 percent to industrial consumers. In the industrial sector Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing compo- coal is an important input for the manufacture of steel nent of world primary energy consumption in the and for the production of steam and direct heat for other IEO2005 reference case. Consumption of natural gas industrial applications.

worldwide increases in the forecast by an average of 2.3 percent annually from 2002 to 2025, compared with pro- Coal is expected to maintain its importance as an energy jected annual growth rates of 1.9 percent for oil con- source in both the electric power and industrial sectors, sumption and 2.0 percent for coal consumption. From with the two sectors combined accounting for virtually Figure 2. World Marketed Energy Use by Energy Figure 3. World Natural Gas Consumption Type, 1970-2025 by End-Use Sector, 2002-2025 Quadrillion Btu Trillion Cubic Feet 250 250 History Projections Electric Power Transportation 200 200 Industrial Commercial 156 150 150 142 Oil Residential 128 111 100 Coal 100 92 Natural Gas Renewables 50 50 Nuclear 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 3

all the growth in coal use in the mid-term forecast. To a the more rapid growth rates projected for natural gas large extent, the slight increase in the importance of coal and coal cause the renewable share of world energy use in the industrial sector results from the substantial to remain flat.

growth projected for industrial energy consumption in Much of the projected growth in renewable electricity China, which has abundant coal reserves, limited access generation is expected to result from the completion of to other sources of energy, and a dominant position in large hydroelectric facilities in emerging economies, world steel production. Coal is expected to remain the particularly in Asia, where the need to expand electricity fuel of choice in Chinas rapidly expanding industrial production with associated dams and reservoirs often sector.

outweighs concerns about environmental impacts and World net electricity consumption nearly doubles in the the relocation of populations. China, India, and Laos, reference case forecast, from 14,275 billion kilowatt- among other emerging Asian economies, already are hours in 2002 to 21,400 billion kilowatthours in 2015 and constructing or planning new large-scale hydroelectric 26,018 billion kilowatthours in 2025. More than one-half facilities.

(59 percent) of the projected growth in demand occurs in In the transitional economies, most additions to hydro-the emerging economies, where electricity use increases electric capacity are expected to come from repair or on average by 4.0 percent per year from 2002 to 2025, as expansion of existing plants. Among the mature market compared with 2.6 percent per year worldwide. Coal economies, non-hydroelectric marketed renewables, and natural gas are expected to remain the most impor-such as wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, are tant fuels for electricity generation worldwide through-expected to account for most of the growth in renewable out the forecast, accounting for 62 percent of the energy energy use, given government programs and policies to used for electricity production in 2025; however, encourage their expansion. In the mature market and increases are projected for consumption of all primary transitional economies, most hydroelectric resources energy sources in electricity generation in the IEO2005 either have already been developed or lie far from popu-reference case.

lation centers.

Consumption of electricity generated from nuclear Carbon dioxide is one of the most prevalent greenhouse power worldwide is projected to increase from 2,560 bil-gases in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic (human-lion kilowatthours in 2002 to 3,270 billion kilowatthours caused) emissions of carbon dioxide result primarily in 2025 in the reference case. Prospects for nuclear power from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy, and as a have improved in recent years, with higher capacity uti-result world energy use has emerged at the center of the lization rates reported for many existing nuclear facili-climate change debate. In the IEO2005 reference case, ties and the expectation that most existing plants in the mature market and transitional economy nations will be granted extensions to their operating lives. Further, Figure 4. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005 higher fossil fuel prices and the entry into force of the Projections for World Nuclear Generating Kyoto Protocol are expected to improve prospects for Capacity, 2010-2025 new nuclear power capacity over the forecast period. Gigawatts 500 IEO2004 IEO2005 In past editions of the IEO, declines in nuclear power 422 were projected in the mid-term forecast as a result of 392 390 407 401 401 411 400 385 expectations that few new reactors would be built, and 361 that older reactors would be shut down when they reached the end of their operating lives. In IEO2005, 300 world total installed nuclear capacity is not projected to decline before 2025, but rises from 361 gigawatts in 2002 200 to 401 gigawatts in 2015 and 422 gigawatts in 2025 (Figure 4). Between 2002 and 2025, 55 gigawatts of the world increment in nuclear capacity is projected for the 100 emerging Asian economies alone, and another 19 giga-watts is projected for the transitional economies of the 0 EE/FSU countries. 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Hydroelectricity and other grid-connected renewable Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

energy sources are expected to maintain an 8-percent International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

share of total energy use worldwide throughout the pro-iea/. IEO2004: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, jection period. Although the use of marketed renewable DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004), web site energy sources expands in the IEO2005 reference case at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. IEO2005: EIA, System an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2002 to 2025, for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

4 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

world carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise would achieve their reductions. In Western Europe, from 24.4 billion metric tons in 2002 to 30.2 billion metric stated intentions that most of the emissions reductions tons in 2010 and 38.8 billion metric tons in 2025 (Figure will be achieved domestically resulted in an assumption 5). Much of the projected increase in carbon dioxide that 50 percent of the aggregate emissions reduction for emissions occurs among the emerging nations, accom- Western Europe will be met by domestic reductions.

panying large increases in fossil fuel use. The emerging With no stated intention about levels of domestic reduc-economies account for 68 percent of the projected incre- tions in Japan or in Canada, an assumption was made ment in carbon dioxide emissions between 2002 and that for both countries a 25-percent share of their total 2025. reductions would be met domestically.

The Kyoto Protocol, which requires participating In the IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol case, energy-related car-Annex I countries1 to reduce their carbon dioxide bon dioxide emissions in the participating nations are emissions collectively to an annual average of about 5 projected to be 593 million metric tons lower than in the percent below their 1990 level over the 2008-2012 period, reference case in 2025. Achieving the national commit-became a legally binding treaty on February 16, 2005, 90 ments under the treaty is projected to require marginal days after it was ratified by Russia. The IEO2005 refer- costs for emission reductions from domestic sources that ence case forecast does not include the potential impacts range from $36 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in Can-of the Kyoto Protocol, because the treaty does not indi- ada to $64 per metric ton in Western Europe. Continued cate the methods by which ratifying parties will imple- heavy reliance on coal and other fossil fuels, as projected ment their obligations either in the first commitment for the emerging economies of the world, ensures that period or after 2012. To examine the implications of the even when those nations that have ratified the Kyoto treaty for energy use and carbon dioxide emissions, a Protocol undertake to reduce their carbon dioxide emis-Kyoto Protocol case was analyzed. sions as required in the treaty, there still will be substan-tial increases in worldwide carbon dioxide emissions A number of assumptions were made in developing the over the forecast horizon (Figure 6). In the IEO2005 IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol case. First, it was assumed that Kyoto Protocol case (assuming that the Kyoto targets energy use would not vary from the reference case fore- remain constant over the entire forecast period), world-cast for countries that are not undertaking an emissions wide carbon dioxide emissions rise to 29.8 billion metric reduction commitment. In addition, assumptions were tons in 2010 and to 38.2 million metric tons in 2025.

made about how the affected participating regions Figure 5. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions Figure 6. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Two by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 Cases, 1990, 2010, and 2025 Billion Metric Tons Billion Metric Tons 50 50 History Projections Other 40 Participating Annex I 38.8 38.2 40 30.2 29.8 30 30 21.5 20 Total 20 10 Oil 0

10 Coal 1990 2010 2025 Natural Gas Reference Kyoto Reference Kyoto 0 Case Protocol Case Protocol 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 Case Case Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 1990: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. 2010 and 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

1 Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. Turkey, Belarus, Australia, and the United States are Annex I nations that will not participate in the Protocol.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 5

World Energy and Economic Outlook The IEO2005 projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, including large increases for the emerging economies of Asia. Energy resources are thought to be adequate to support the growth expected through 2025.

The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) projects and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU), growth in strong growth for worldwide energy demand over the energy demand is projected to average 1.6 percent per 23-year projection period from 2002 to 2025. Total world year.

consumption of marketed energy is expected to expand from 412 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2002 This chapter presents an overview of the IEO2005 out-to 553 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 645 quadrillion look for energy consumption by primary energy source Btu in 2025, or a 57-percent increase over the 2002 to 2025 time period (Table 1 and Figure 7). Figure 7. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1970-2025 In the IEO2005 mid-term outlook, the emerging econo- Quadrillion Btu mies account for nearly two-thirds of the increase in 800 History Projections world energy use, surpassing energy use in the mature 645 market economies for the first time in 2020 (Figure 8). In 598 2025, energy demand in the emerging economies is 600 553 504 expected to exceed that of the mature market economies by 9 percent. 412 400 348 366 310 Much of the growth in energy demand among the 285 243 emerging economies is expected to occur in emerging 207 Asia, which includes China and India; demand in this 200 region is projected to more than double over the forecast period (Figure 9). Primary energy consumption in the 0

emerging economies as a whole is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent between 2002 and 70 75 80 85 90 95 02 10 15 20 25 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 2025. In contrast, in the mature market economies Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

where energy consumption patterns are well estab- International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) lishedenergy use is expected to grow at a much slower (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

average rate of 1.1 percent per year over the same iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global period. In the transitional economies of Eastern Europe Energy Markets (2005).

Table 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Average Annual Percent Change Region 1990 2002 2015 2025 1990-2002 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies . . . . 183.6 213.5 247.3 271.8 1.3 1.1 Transitional Economies . . . . . . 76.2 53.6 68.4 77.7 -2.9 1.6 Emerging Economies . . . . . . . . 88.4 144.3 237.8 295.1 4.2 3.2 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.5 88.4 155.8 196.7 4.6 3.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 22.0 32.4 38.9 4.4 2.5 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 12.7 19.3 23.4 2.7 2.7 Central and South America . . . . 14.5 21.2 30.4 36.1 3.2 2.3 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348.2 411.5 553.5 644.6 1.4 2.0 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 1990 and 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. 2015 and 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Mar-kets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 7

and a look at the major assumptions that form the basis IEO2005 projections, which can result in a fair amount of of the forecasts that appear in the report. The chapter variation in forecasting. Alternative assumptions about includes a discussion of the IEO2005 macroeconomic economic growth and their impacts on the IEO2005 pro-forecast in the context of recent economic developments jections are considered, as well as the possible effects of in key mature market, transitional, and emerging future trends in energy intensity on the reference case economies. projections.

As with any set of forecasts, there is uncertainty associ- Outlook for World Energy ated with the IEO2005 energy projections. In an effort to assess issues of uncertainty in the forecast, the following Consumption section considers some of the elements that drive the The IEO2005 reference case projects increased consump-tion of primary energy from all sources over the next Figure 8. World Marketed Energy Use by Region, two decades. Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the 1970-2025 increment in marketed energy use worldwide through-out the forecast. Oil is expected to remain the dominant Quadrillion Btu 300 energy source over the projection period, with its share History Projections of total world energy consumption declining only 250 slightly, from 39 percent in 2002 to 38 percent in 2025 (Figure 10).

Mature Market Economies 200 Worldwide oil consumption is expected to rise from 78 million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per 150 Emerging Economies day in 2015 and then to 119 million barrels per day in 2025. The projection for oil demand in 2025 is slightly 100 lower than the 121 million barrels per day forecast in the International Energy Outlook 2004 (IEO2004), and the dif-50 ference is in large part explained by the change in expec-Transitional Economies (EE/FSU) tations for world oil prices (Figure 11). In this years 0 outlook, world oil prices are assumed to stay higher for 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 longer than anticipated in last years report, and this Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), dampens the mid-term projections for oil demand in International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) many regions of the worldespecially in the mature (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global market economies and the EE/FSU. The impact of Energy Markets (2005). higher prices on world oil demand would be even Figure 9. Marketed Energy Use in the Emerging Figure 10. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Economies by Region, 1970-2025 Type, 1970-2025 Quadrillion Btu Quadrillion Btu 400 250 History Projections History Projections Central & South America 200 295 300 Africa Middle East 238 150 Emerging Asia Oil 200 144 100 Coal 100 88 Natural Gas Renewables 56 50 32 Nuclear 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

8 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

stronger without the robust growth expected for China end-use consumer for natural gas worldwide. The elec-in the near-term forecast. Chinas oil consumption is tric power sector accounts for nearly 50 percent of the projected to increase at an average annual rate of 5.8 per- increase in global natural gas demand over the 2002 to cent between 2002 and 2015, then slow to about half that 2025 period, and the industrial sector accounts for rate in the remaining years of the forecast. another 36 percent.

Worldwide, transportation and industry are the major Coal use worldwide is projected to increase by 2.0 billion growth sectors for oil demand. On a worldwide basis, short tons between 2002 and 2015 and by another 1.0 bil-the transportation sectorwhere there are currently no lion short tons between 2015 and 2025. In this years out-alternative fuels that compete widely with oil look for coal, all regions of the world show some accounts for about 60 percent of the total projected increase in coal use, except for Western Europe, where increase in oil use between 2002 and 2025, with the natural gas and, to a lesser extent, renewable energy industrial sector accounting for virtually all the rest of sources are increasingly being substituted for coal to fuel the incremental demand. electric power generation. On a regional basis, slightly lower coal use is anticipated relative to last years out-Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing pri-look in the mature market economies. In the transitional mary energy source worldwide, maintaining average economies of the EE/FSU region, coal use was expected growth of 2.3 percent annually over the 2002 to 2025 to decline somewhat in the IEO2004 forecast, but in this period. Total world natural gas consumption is pro-years forecast it is expected to increase by 0.5 percent jected to rise from 92 trillion cubic feet in 2002 to 128 tril-per year between 2002 and 2025.

lion cubic feet in 2015 and 156 trillion cubic feet in 2025.

The IEO2005 forecast for coal use in the emerging econo-Natural gas is expected to remain an important supply mies is nearly 13 percent higher than in IEO2004 (Figure source for new electric power generation in the forecast.

12). The largest increases in coal use worldwide are pro-It is seen as a desirable option for electric power in many jected for China and India, where coal supplies are plen-parts of the world, given its efficiency relative to other tiful. Together, China and India account for 87 percent of energy sources and its low carbon content relative to the projected rise in coal use in the emerging economies other fossil fuels, making it a more attractive choice for region and 72 percent of the total world increase in coal countries interested in reducing greenhouse gas emis-demand over the forecast period.

sions. The industrial sector also remains an important Electricity generation is expected to nearly double between 2002 and 2025, from 14,275 billion kilowatt-Figure 11. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005 hours to 26,018 billion kilowatthours. The strongest Projections for the U.S. Refiner Acquisition Cost of Imported Crude Oil, 1970-2025 Figure 12. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005 Projections for World Coal 2003 Dollars per Barrel 70 Consumption by Region, 2015 and 2025 Billion Short Tons 60 12 Emerging Economies 50 10 Transitional Economies Mature Market Economies 8.2 40 8 7.6 IEO2005 7.2 6.3 30 6 5.3 20 IEO2004 4

10 2

History Projections 0

1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 0 2002 IEO2004 IEO2005 IEO2004 IEO2005 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2015 2025 Annual Energy Review 2003, DOE/EIA-0384(2003) (Washing-ton, DC, September 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

aer/contents.html. IEO2004: EIA, International Energy Outlook International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004), (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. IEO2005: AEO- iea/. IEO2004: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/

2005 October Futures Case from EIA, Annual Energy Outlook EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004), web site www.

2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, DC, February eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. IEO2005: EIA, System for the 2005), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html. Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 9

growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the existing nuclear facilities and expectations that most emerging economies of the world, averaging 4.0 percent existing plants in the mature market and transitional per year in the IEO2005 reference case, compared with a economy nations will receive approvals for extensions projected average increase of 2.6 percent per year world- of their operating lives.

wide. Robust economic growth in many of the emerging Higher fossil fuel prices and the entry into force of the economies is expected to boost demand for electricity to Kyoto Protocol are expected to improve prospects for run newly purchased home appliances for air condition-new nuclear power capacity over the forecast period, ing, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration.

and the world nuclear generation forecast includes new More modest growth, averaging 1.5 percent per year, is construction of nuclear plants in several countries. In projected for the mature market economies.

IEO2005, unlike past IEOs, the worlds total installed As noted above, natural gas is expected to be a favored nuclear capacity is not projected to decline before 2025 choice for new electricity generation capacity built over (Figure 14). In the IEO2005 reference case, world nuclear the next two decades (Figure 13). Its relative environ- capacity is projected to rise from 361 gigawatts in 2002 to mental benefits and efficiency make natural gas an 401 gigawatts in 2015 and 422 gigawatts in 2025.

attractive alternative to coal-fired generation. Moreover, In the emerging economies, consumption of electricity where fuel diversification is desired (as in China, where from nuclear power is projected to increase by 4.9 per-generation is heavily reliant on coal-fired capacity), nat-cent per year between 2002 and 2025. Emerging Asia, in ural gas is expected to gain share in the electric power particular, is expected to see the largest increment in mix over the forecast period. The natural gas share of installed nuclear generating capacity over the forecast, total energy used to generate electricity worldwide accounting for 96 percent of the total projected increase increases in the forecast, from 18 percent in 2002 to 24 in nuclear power capacity for the emerging economies.

percent in 2025, with other energy sources showing Of the 55 gigawatts of additional installed nuclear gen-small losses in market share.

erating capacity projected for emerging Asia, 24 giga-Worldwide, consumption of electricity generated from watts is projected for China, 12 gigawatts for India, and nuclear power is expected to increase from 2,560 billion 12 gigawatts for South Korea.

kilowatthours in 2002 to 3,032 billion kilowatthours in Although the use of hydroelectricity and other grid-2015 and 3,270 billion kilowatthours in 2025. The connected renewable energy sources is expected to con-IEO2005 world forecast for nuclear electricity generation tinue to expand over the projection period, increasing by is, in general, more optimistic than last years forecast; 1.9 percent per year, more rapid growth is projected for the projection for nuclear generation in 2025 is 13 per-both natural gas and coal demand in the reference case.

cent higher in IEO2005 than it was in IEO2004. Prospects for nuclear power have improved in recent years, with higher capacity utilization rates reported for many Figure 14. Comparison of IEO2004 and IEO2005 Projections for World Nuclear Generating Capacity, 2010-2025 Figure 13. Fuel Shares of World Electricity Gigawatts Generation, 2002-2025 500 IEO2004 IEO2005 Percent of Total 422 392 390 407 401 401 411 100 400 385 361 80 300 Natural Gas 60 Nuclear 200 Renewables 40 Coal 100 Oil 20 0

2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 0 Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) iea/. IEO2004: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004), web site iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. IEO2005: EIA, System Energy Markets (2005). for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

10 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Still, renewables are expected to retain an 8-percent box on page 13 for discussion of real GDP at purchasing share of total world energy consumption throughout the power parity rates).

2002 to 2025 period. Much of the growth in renewable energy sources is expected to result from large-scale Over the 2002 to 2025 period, world economic growth is hydroelectric power projects in the developing world, projected to average 3.9 percent annually (Table 2). This particularly among the nations of emerging Asia. China, growth projection is slightly higher than the IEO2004 India, and Laos, among other emerging Asian econo- projection, because economic performance in most mies, are already constructing or have plans to construct regions of the world was exceptionally strong in 2003 ambitious hydroelectric projects in the coming decades. and 2004. The medium- to long-term outlook for world-wide economic growth depends on the underlying World Economic Outlook demographic and productivity trends in each economy, which will determine the nature and character of Economic growth is among the most important factors long-term growth, especially in developed, mature mar-to be considered in projecting changes in the worlds ket economies that have well-established and stable future energy consumption. In the IEO2005 forecast, political institutions and markets for goods and services, assumptions about regional economic growthmea- labor, and financial assets.

sured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), in real 2000 U.S. dollars at purchasing power parity rates In emerging nations that still are in the process of underlie the projections of regional energy demand (see building human and physical capital infrastructures, Table 2. Average Annual Growth in World Gross Domestic Product by Selected Countries and Regions, 1979-2025 (Percent per Year)

History Projections Region 1979-2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005-2015 2015-2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies . . . . . . . 2.6 1.4 2.1 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 1.9 3.0 4.4 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.4 2.0 3.0 3.3 2.8 2.0 2.4 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 0.7 1.3 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.1 3.9 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 -0.3 2.5 4.1 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.7 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 1.1 0.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 4.0 3.0 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.6 Transitional Economies . . . . . . . . . -0.5 4.4 6.6 7.0 6.2 4.5 3.7 4.4 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . -1.0 5.2 7.9 7.8 6.7 4.6 3.7 4.6 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 2.7 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.3 3.8 4.1 Emerging Economies . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 4.8 5.9 6.4 5.9 5.3 4.7 5.1 Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 5.9 7.3 6.9 6.4 5.7 4.9 5.5 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4 8.0 9.1 8.6 7.2 6.4 5.3 6.2 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 4.6 8.2 5.7 6.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7 6.9 3.1 4.3 5.8 4.8 2.8 3.9 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 4.1 4.8 5.8 5.1 4.8 4.3 4.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 4.8 3.1 7.4 6.2 4.4 3.9 4.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.4 3.9 4.6 5.0 4.2 3.6 4.0 Central and South America . . . . . . . 2.2 -0.5 1.2 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.9 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 1.9 -0.2 4.3 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.8 Total World Purchasing Power Parity Rates . . 3.0 2.9 3.9 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.9 Market Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . 2.7 2.0 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0 Note: All growth rates presented in this table are expressed as purchasing power parity rates, except for the final line of the table, which presents world GDP growth rates expressed as market exchange rates.

Sources: Purchasing Power Parity Rates: A. Heston, R. Summers, and B. Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1 (Philadelphia, PA: Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October 2002), web site http://pwt.econ.upenn.

edu/php_site/pwt_index.php. Historical Growth Rates: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview (Lexington, MA, various issues).

Projected GDP Growth Rates: Global Insight, Inc., World Overview, First Quarter 2005 (Lexington, MA, March 2005); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington DC, January 2005). Chinas growth rates were adjusted downward, based on the analysts judgment.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 11

establishing credible and effective regulatory mecha- Japans highly skilled labor force and strong work ethic nisms to govern markets, and ensuring political stabil- are expected to support the projected growth rate of 1.7 ity, progress in achieving those goals will play an percent per year, provided that more flexible labor poli-equally important role in determining medium- to cies allowing greater mobility for workers are adopted.

long-term growth. The transitional economies face their Toward the end of this decade, normal attrition is own unique sets of problems as they continue moving expected to eliminate surplus employment levels, espe-from centrally planned to decentralized private markets. cially in the industrial sector, allowing consolidation Therefore, in contrast to the mature market economies, and improved efficiencies. More importantly, the bank-there is a broader range of uncertainty around the refer- rupt firms kept afloat by creditors are expected to be ence case projections of economic growth for emerging gone and, therefore, no longer a drain on the economy.

and transitional economies. In addition, the bad loans that have plagued Japans banks are expected to be reduced to a point at which Mature Market Economies lending can resume. In the long term, after 2010, Japans In the United States, GDP is projected to grow by an population is expected to decline, and the average age average of 3.1 percent per year between 2005 and 2015, will continue to rise as a result of low birth rates and with somewhat slower growth2.9 percent per year high longevity. As a result, transfer payments by the expected between 2015 and 2025 as the baby boom gen- government to the elderly could become increasingly eration retires and labor force growth slows. Compared burdensome, leading to slower GDP growth.

with the second half of the 1990s, U.S. GDP growth rates were lower from 2000 to 2002 but rebounded to 3.0 per- Transitional Economies cent in 2003 and an estimated 4.4 percent in 2004. In the Over the 2002-2025 period, an average annual growth of forecast, the U.S. economy stabilizes at its long-term 4.6 percent is expected for the FSU as a whole. For the growth path between 2005 and 2010. past several years, the FSU economies have been largely sheltered from global economic uncertainties, recording Canada has the potential to maintain strong growth in strong growth in each year since 2000. This trend is productivity and its standard of living by increasing the largely the result of robust domestic demand, in addi-labor force participation rate, focusing on immigration, tion to the impact that rising oil prices have had on the strengthening policies on education and innovation, and oil-exporting nations of the region. High world oil prices reducing structural unemployment. Labor force growth have stimulated investment outlays, especially in the is projected to slow in the medium to long term, how- energy sector of the Caspian region. Given the volatility ever, and Canadas overall potential economic growth is of energy market prices, however, it is unlikely that expected to fall from the current 3.0 percent to 2.8 per- these economies will be able to sustain the growth rates cent per year between 2005 and 2015 and 2.0 percent per recently achieved until diversification from energy year between 2015 and 2025. becomes more broadly based. The long-term growth prospects of the FSU economies hinge on their success in In the IEO2005 reference case, Mexicos GDP is projected economic diversification, as well as further improve-to grow by an average of 3.9 percent per year from 2002 ments in domestic product and financial markets.

to 2025. Global financial markets remain friendly to Mexico in terms of the availability and cost of credit and An average annual expansion of 4.1 percent per year is the volume of foreign direct investment. In general, projected for Eastern Europes GDP over the 2002 to strong trade ties with the United States are expected to 2025 period. The accession of 10 Eastern European coun-help cushion Mexico from deeper economic troubles. By tries to membership in the European Union in May 2004 the same token, Mexicos future growth is also more (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Estonia, dependent on U.S. growth. Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Malta, and Cyprus) is expected to boost consumer confidence and economic Western Europes GDP is projected to grow by 2.0 per-activity in the medium to long term. Membership in the cent per year between 2002 and 2025 in the reference European Union is expected to result in more foreign case. Over the medium to long term there are structural direct investment, bolstering domestic investment and impediments to economic growth in many Western growth.

European countries, related to the regions labor mar-kets, product markets, and costly social welfare systems. Emerging Economies Reforms to improve the competitiveness of European labor and product markets could yield significant divi- Much of the growth in world economic activity between dends in terms of increases in regional output [1]. 2002 and 2025 is expected to occur among the nations of emerging Asia, where regional GDP is projected to grow Japans GDP growth is projected to average 1.7 percent by 5.5 percent per year. China, emerging Asias largest per year from 2002 to 2015 and then to slow to 1.2 economy, is expected to continue playing a major role percent per year from 2015 to 2025. In the short term, on both the supply and demand sides of the global 12 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

economy. IEO2005 projects an average annual growth purchase power parity rates), China is expected to be the rate of approximately 6.2 percent for Chinas economy worlds largest economy.

over the 2002 to 2025 period. The countrys economic growth is expected to be the highest in the world. In In terms of structural issues that have implications for 2025, based on share of world GDP (converted using the medium to long term, China still needs to reform GDP Comparisons Based on Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates Regular readers of the International Energy Outlook affected by the choice between market exchange and (IEO) will notice that, in this edition, the projections of PPP rates for GDP conversions, because both rates of real gross domestic product (GDP) for different coun- conversion would leave unchanged the underlying tries and regions have been converted to U.S. dollars by rates of growth of real economic activity.a in the vari-using purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. ous countries/regions. However, some readers have In all previous editions of the IEO, starting from 1985, rightly objected to the presentation of real GDP projec-market exchange rates were used for the conversion of tions in a common currency based on market exchange real GDP projections. rates,b because they understate the true size of emerg-ing economies. As a result, their growth rates get rela-PPP exchange rates are defined as rates of currency tively less weight than they should, and when they are conversion that equalize the purchasing power of dif- aggregated to regions and finally to the world, the ferent currencies. For example, if the price of a ham- regional and world growth rates are underestimated.

burger in India is 60 rupees and in the United States it is Furthermore, the internationally agreed System of

$2.20, then the PPP exchange rate for hamburgers National Accounts 1993, to which the United States is a between India and the United States is 60 rupees to signatory, states, When the objective is to compare

$2.20 or 27.3 rupees to the dollar. This concept of PPP volumes of goods and services produced or consumed for one good is generalized to a common basket of per head, data in national currencies must be converted goods and services in the different countries to obtain into a common currency by means of purchasing PPP rates in practice. Market exchange rates on the power parities and not exchange rates.c other hand are the foreign currency prices of the dollar (or alternatively the dollar prices of foreign currencies) The use of PPP rates for converting national GDPs to a as traded in the foreign exchange markets. common currency has become widely accepted, and the Energy Information Administration has also In 2004 the average market exchange rate for a dollar in adopted their use. Nevertheless, care needs to be exer-terms of Indian rupees was 45.3, compared with an cised in interpreting the results.d Market exchange average PPP rate of 7.3. Generally, PPP rates are much rates are appropriate when the outcome is closely lower than market exchange rates in emerging econo- linked to the current exchange rate (for example, for mies, implying that a dollar buys a lot more in, for exports and imports, especially of internationally example, India or China than in the United States. traded commodities like crude oil, automobiles, etc.).

Thus, converting emerging countries GDPs into dol- PPP exchange rates are generally regarded as provid-lars at market exchange rates can understate the true ing a better measure of the change in global economic size of their economies and their living standards. well-being and cost of living. In addition, they are gen-erally thought to provide a more balanced estimate of Real GDP projections for country and regions have the relative importance of rich and poor countries. On been employed as one of the major determinants in the the other hand, while PPP is useful for showing how world energy forecasts contained in every edition of much a countrys currency is worth in its home market, IEO. It was stated in the International Energy Outlook it does not measure effective purchasing power across 2004 (pp. 17-18) that the energy projections were not borders.

aFor IEO2005, GDP projections were first prepared for individual countries in terms of their own currencies and the 2000 prices of goods and services. The projections were then converted to 2000 U.S. PPP dollars by dividing each countrys real GDP projections by the PPP exchange rate between the United States and that country in 2000. Had the market exchange rate that existed, on average, in 2000 between each currency and the dollar been used instead, the growth rate of the resulting series would not differ from the growth rate of the real GDP series derived by using the 2000 PPP rate.

bIan Castles, Visiting Fellow, Asia Pacific School of Government, the Australian National University (formerly head of Australias National Statistical Office); and David Henderson, Visiting Professor, Westminster School of Business, University of Westminster (for-merly Chief Economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development).

cSNA 1993, para. 1.38. See web site http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/toctop.asp.

dThe International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and some private-sector organiza-tions use PPP exchange rates for their world economic growth projections. The World Bank and other groups in the private sector use market exchange rates.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 13

overstaffed and inefficient state-owned companies and a based on a set of regional assumptions about economic banking system that is carrying a significant amount of growth pathsmeasured by GDPand energy elastic-nonperforming loans. Membership in the World Trade ity (the relationship between changes in energy con-Organization is expected to force the government to sumption and changes in GDP). The two alternative pursue these reforms, which are expected to transform growth cases are based on alternative assumptions the Chinese economy into one that is more market ori- about possible economic growth paths; assumptions ented and, hence, more efficient. about the elasticity of energy demand are held constant, at reference case values.

Another Asian country with a rapidly emerging econ-omy is India. The mid-term prospects for Indias econ- For the high and low economic growth cases, different omy are positive, as it continues to privatize state assumptions are made about the range of possible eco-enterprises and increasingly adopts free market policies. nomic growth rates among the industrial, transitional Average annual GDP growth in India over the 2002 to EE/FSU, and emerging economies. For the mature mar-2025 forecast period is projected at 5.5 percent. Acceler- ket economies, 0.5 percentage point is added to the refer-ating structural reformsincluding ending regulatory ence case GDP growth rates for the high economic impediments to the consolidation of labor-intensive growth case and 0.5 percentage point is subtracted from industries, labor market and bankruptcy reforms, and the reference case GDP growth rates for the low eco-agricultural and trade liberalizationremain essential nomic growth case. Outside the industrialized world to stimulating potential growth and reducing poverty in (excluding the FSU), reference case GDP growth rates the medium to long term [2]. With its vast and cheap are increased and decreased by 1.0 percentage point to labor force, India is well placed to reap the benefits of provide the high and low economic growth case globalization in the long run. estimates.

Although the nations of Central and South America are The FSU suffered a severe economic collapse in the early on favorable economic growth paths, the regions part of the 1990s and, until recently, has shown wide growth rate remains well below potential. The weak variation in its year-to-year economic growth. Between international credit environment is a constraint, as are 1990 and 2002, its annual GDP growth rate has varied domestic economic and/or political problems in a num- from -14 percent in 1992 to +9 percent in 2000. Given this ber of countries. Growth in the region remains heavily wide range, the FSU nations can be characterized as hav-dependent on the volume of foreign capital flows. In the ing a considerably more uncertain economic future than long term, beyond macroeconomic stability and com- the nations in other regions of the world. As a result, 1.5 mitment to sound fiscal and monetary policies, the percentage points are added and subtracted from the countries of Central and South America will have to reference case GDP assumptions to derive the high and tackle governance issues and attempt to correct severe low macroeconomic forecasts for the FSU region.

economic disparities between the wealthy and the poor in the regions societies. The IEO2005 reference case shows total world energy consumption reaching 645 quadrillion Btu in 2025, with Higher oil prices have helped boost growth in the the mature market economies projected to consume 272 oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and Africa, quadrillion Btu, the transitional EE/FSU countries 78 and strong prices for many other commodities have quadrillion Btu, and the emerging economies 295 qua-helped a number of the regions commodity-exporting drillion Btu. In the high economic growth case, total countries. For Africa as a whole, average annual GDP world energy use in 2025 is projected to be 708 quadril-growth of 4.0 percent is projected over the 2002 to 2025 lion Btu, 64 quadrillion Btu (or 32 million barrels oil period. In the longer run, Africa will continue to face for- equivalent per day) higher than in the reference case.

midable obstacles to growth, such as low savings and Under the assumptions of the low economic growth investment rates, limited quantity and quality of infra- case, worldwide energy consumption in 2025 is pro-structure and human capital, negative perceptions on jected to be 58 quadrillion Btu (29 million barrels oil the part of international investors, and especially the equivalent per day) lower than in the reference case, at impact of HIV/AIDS on population growth. 586 quadrillion Btu. Thus, there is a range of 122 quadril-lion Btuabout one-fifth of the total consumption pro-Alternative Growth Cases jected for 2025 in the reference casebetween the projections in the high and low economic growth cases Expectations for the future rates of economic growth are (Figure 15).

a major source of uncertainty in the IEO2005 forecast. To account for the uncertainties associated with economic growth trends, IEO2005 includes a high economic Trends in Energy Intensity growth case and a low economic growth case in addition Another major source of uncertainty surrounding to the reference case. The reference case projections are long-term forecasts is the relationship of energy use to 14 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

GDPor energy intensityover time. Economic the link between economic growth and energy demand.

growth and energy demand are linked, but the strength Advanced economies with high living standards have a of that link varies among regions over time. In the relatively high level of energy use per capita, but they mature market economies, history shows the link to be a also tend to be economies where per capita energy use is relatively weak one, with energy demand lagging stable or changes very slowly. In mature market econo-behind economic growth (Figure 16). In the emerging mies, there is a high penetration rate of modern economies, demand and economic growth have been appliances and motorized personal transportation closely correlated with energy demand growth for much equipment. To the extent that spending is directed to of the past three decades (Figure 17). Economic growth energy-consuming goods, it involves more often than has only recently (that is, within the past decade or so) begun to outpace growth in energy use among the emerging economies of the world. Figure 15. World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases, The historical behavior of energy intensity in the FSU is 1970-2025 problematic. Since World War II, the EE/FSU economies Quadrillion Btu have had higher levels of energy intensity than either the 800 High mature market or emerging economies. In the FSU, how-Economic ever, energy consumption generally grew more quickly Growth than GDP until 1990 (Figure 18), when the collapse of the 600 Soviet Union created a situation in which both income Reference and energy use declined, but GDP fell more quickly and, Low as a result, energy intensity increased. Only since the late 400 Economic 1990s, after the 1997 devaluation of the Russian ruble, Growth have the Russian and Ukrainian industrial sectors begun to strengthen. As a result, economic growth in the FSU 200 has begun to outpace growth in energy use significantly, and energy intensity has begun to decline precipitously. History Projections Over the forecast horizon, energy intensity in the 0 EE/FSU region is expected to continue to decline but 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 still remain higher than in any other region of the world Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

(Figure 19). International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

The stage of economic development and the standard of iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global living of individuals in a given region strongly influence Energy Markets (2005).

Figure 16. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Figure 17. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Domestic Product for the Mature Market Domestic Product for the Emerging Economies, 1970-2025 Economies, 1970-2025 Index, 1970 = 1 Index, 1970 = 1 20 20 History Projections History Projections 15 15 10 10 Gross Domestic Gross Product 5 Domestic 5 Product Energy Use Energy Use 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 15

not purchases of new equipment to replace old capital growth in the low macroeconomic growth case, world stock. The new stock is often more efficient than the energy intensity is projected to decline by an average of equipment it replaces, resulting in a weaker link only 1.5 percent per year over the projection period.

between income and energy demand.

References The pace of improvement in energy intensity may

1. International Monetary Fund, Economic Prospects change, given different assumptions of macroeconomic and Policy Issues, in World Economic Outlook growth over time. Faster growth in income means a (Washington, DC, April 2005), p. 28, web site www.

faster rate of decline in energy intensity. Worldwide imf.org/ external/pubs/ft/weo/2003/02/.

energy intensity in the IEO2005 high economic growth rate is projected to improve by 2.1 percent per year on 2. International Monetary Fund, Economic Prospects average from 2002 to 2025, compared with 1.9 percent in and Policy Issues, in World Economic Outlook: Glob-the reference case. On the other hand, slower economic alization and External Imbalances (Washington, DC, growth would result in a slower rate of decline in energy April 2005), p. 29, web site www.imf.org/external/

intensity. Under the IEO2005 assumptions for GDP pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/.

Figure 18. Growth in Energy Use and Gross Figure 19. Energy Intensity by Region, 1970-2025 Domestic Product for the Transitional Thousand Btu per 2000 Dollar of GDP Economies, 1970-2025 20 Index, 1970 = 1 20 History Projections Transitional 15 Economies Mature Market 15 Economies 10 10 Emerging Economies 5

Gross 5 Domestic Product History Projections 0

1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 Energy Use 0 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ Energy Markets (2005).

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

16 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector In the IEO2005 projections, end-use energy consumption in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors varies widely among regions and from country to country.

One way of looking at the future of world energy mar- 2002), to 1.1 quadrillion Btu; growth in electricity de-kets is to consider trends in energy consumption at the mand is responsible for most of the projected increase.

end-use sector level. With the exception of the transpor- After 2015, the growth in Mexicos residential delivered tation sector, which is almost universally dominated by energy use is expected to slow, reaching 1.3 quadrillion petroleum products at present, the mix of energy use in Btu in 2025. On average, the countrys residential energy the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors can consumption increases in the forecast by 3.4 percent per vary widely from country to country, depending on a year from 2002 to 2025.

combination of regional factors, such as the availability of energy resources, the level of economic development, In the United States, which is by far the largest residen-and political, social, and demographic factors. This tial energy consumer in the region (and in the world),

chapter outlines the International Energy Outlook 2005 total residential electricity use is projected to grow on (IEO2005) forecast for regional energy consumption by average by 1.6 percent per year, to 5.4 quadrillion Btu in end-use sector. 2015 and 6.2 quadrillion Btu in 2025, from 4.3 quadrillion Btu in 2002. Increasing use of electric appliances contrib-Residential Sector utes most to the expected growth in residential electric-ity demand through 2025.

The residential sector is defined by the energy con-sumed in households, excluding transportation uses. In Western Europe and mature market Asia, unlike The physical size of residential structures is the most North America, residential delivered energy consump-important factor in determining the amount of energy tion combined is not projected to increase through 2025, used by their occupants. Larger homes require more because increases in electricity use are expected to be off-energy to provide heating, air conditioning, and light- set by decreases in fossil fuel use, and because popula-ing, and they tend to include more energy-using appli- tion in both regions combined is projected to increase by ances, such as televisions and laundry equipment. less than 1.0 percent from 2002 to 2025. In Western Smaller structures require less energy, because they con- Europe, residential electricity use is expected to grow by tain less space to be heated or cooled, produce less heat transfer with the outdoor environment, and have fewer Figure 20. Residential Sector Energy Consumption occupants. by Region, 2002-2025 The type and amount of energy used by households Quadrillion Btu 50 vary from country to country, depending on income lev- Mature Market Economies els, natural resources, and available energy infrastruc- Transitional Economies ture. In general, households in the mature market 40 Emerging Economies economies use more energy than those in the transi-tional or emerging economies, in part because they tend 30 to include more energy-using appliances. Consequently, residential sector energy use generally is higher in the mature market economies (Figure 20). In most of the 20 worlds countries, residential energy use is expected to increase as households continue to purchase additional 10 electricity-using appliances.

Mature Market Economies 0 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Households in mature market economies use energy Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

more intensively than those in less developed econo- International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) mies, primarily because of higher income levels. In (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

North America, energy use in Mexicos residential sec- iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global tor is expected to nearly double by 2015 (relative to Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 17

0.4 percent per year through 2025, adding 0.3 quadril- The demand for electricity in China is expected to more lion Btu of consumption, while all other fuel use in the than triple by 2025, growing on average by 7.8 percent sector declines by 0.7 quadrillion Btu. A similar pattern per year through 2015 and 5.6 percent per year through is projected for mature market Asia but with smaller 2025. More rapid growth in electricity demand is pro-decreases in fossil fuel use, resulting in essentially no jected for Indias residential sector, but electricity con-increase in residential delivered energy consumption sumption and total delivered energy consumption are from 2002 to 2025. projected to remain at about one-half those for China through 2025. China and India together accounted for 37 Transitional Economies percent of delivered residential energy consumption in As households in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet the emerging economies in 2002 and are projected to Union (EE/FSU) transition to market economies, more account for more than 43 percent in 2025. The Middle energy services and energy-using appliances are East, Africa, and Central and South America all are pro-expected to become available over time. Residential jected to see substantial increases in residential energy electricity use in the region is projected to nearly double, consumption as well, accounting for 42 percent of the from 1.4 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 2.2 quadrillion Btu in 13.6 quadrillion Btu increase in residential sector deliv-2015 and 2.7 quadrillion Btu in 2025. The transition away ered energy consumption in the emerging economies from state-run district heating methods allows for through 2025.

increases in natural gas and oil consumption as well.

Natural gas consumption in the regions residential sec- Commercial Sector tor is projected to grow by an average of 1.5 percent per year from 2002 through 2015 and an average of 1.2 per- The commercial sectoroften referred to as the services cent per year from 2002 through 2025, as energy service sector or the services and institutional sectorconsists companies increasingly serve homes directly, rather of businesses, institutions, and organizations that pro-than through district services. vide services. The sector encompasses many different types of buildings and a wide range of activities and Emerging Economies energy-related services. Examples of commercial sector Household energy use is projected to increase most rap- facilities include schools, stores, correctional institu-idly in the coming decades in the nations with emerging tions, restaurants, hotels, hospitals, museums, office economies, relative to other nations (Figure 21). In China buildings, banks, and even stadiums that hold sporting and India, population growth and urbanization will cre- events. Most commercial energy use occurs in buildings ate large increases in demand for residential energy ser- or structures, supplying services such as space heating, vices. As a result, the emerging economies in 2025 are water heating, lighting, cooking, and cooling. Energy projected to nearly equal the mature market economies consumed for services not associated with buildings, in residential energy use. such as for traffic lights and city water and sewer ser-vices, is also categorized as commercial sector energy Figure 21. Growth in Residential Sector Delivered use.

Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, 2002-2025 Economic and population growth trends drive commer-Average Annual Percent Change cial sector activity and the resulting energy use. The Mature Market Economies need for services (health, education, financial, govern-6 ment) increases as populations increase. The degree to Transitional Economies which these additional needs are met depends in large Emerging Economies measure on economic resourceswhether from domes-4 tic or foreign sourcesand economic growth. Economic 2 growth also determines the degree to which additional commercial sector activities are offered and utilized.

0 Higher levels of economic activity and disposable income lead to increased demand for hotels and restau-

-2 rants to meet business and leisure requirements; for office and retail space to house and service new and

-4 Oil Natural Coal Electricity Total expanding businesses; and for cultural and leisure space Gas Delivered such as theaters, galleries, and arenas.

Energy Mature Market Economies Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) With population growth for the mature market econo-(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ mies as a whole expected to continue slowing, the rate of iea/. 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Mar- increase in the regions commercial energy demand is kets (2005). also expected to slow. In addition, further efficiency 18 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

improvements are expected to moderate energy consumption is projected to grow by 2.0 percent per demand growth over time as energy-using equipment is year, to 1.1 quadrillion Btu in 2025, as the transitional replaced with newer, more efficient stock. Conversely, nations approach the requirements of market-based strong economic growth in mature markets is expected economies, including increased adoption of electronic to include continued growth in business activity, with equipment. Commercial sector natural gas use is pro-its associated energy use, in areas such as retail and jected to grow by more than 50 percent, from 0.8 quadril-wholesale trade and business, financial, and leisure ser- lion Btu in 2002 to 1.2 quadrillion Btu in 2025. Most of the vices. The combination of these factors is projected to projected increase is attributable to the expectation that cause commercial delivered energy consumption in this natural gas will be used to meet the heating needs of region to increase by 1.3 percent per year from 2002 to transitional countries to a greater extent than it has in the 2025 on average, from 16.8 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 20.0 past, replacing coal and heating oil.

quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 22.6 quadrillion Btu in 2025 (Figure 22). Emerging Economies Economic growth and commerce are expected to in-Commercial electricity demand in mature market econ- crease rapidly in the emerging economies, fueling addi-omies is projected to grow by 1.9 percent per year from tional energy demand in the services sector. Faster 2002 to 2025, with continued advances in technology population growth is also expected, relative to the and the introduction of new electronic appliances and growth rates for mature and transitional economies, equipment (Figure 23). Electricity delivered to commer- portending increases in the need for education, health cial customers in the region, which totaled 7.9 quadril- care, and social services and the energy required to pro-lion Btu in 2002, is projected to reach 10.1 quadrillion Btu vide them. Under these circumstances, commercial in 2015 and 12.1 quadrillion Btu in 2025. Natural gas is delivered energy use in the region is projected to nearly expected to continue displacing petroleum products and double between 2002 and 2015, to 9.6 quadrillion Btu, coal as the preferred heating fuel in the mature market and to continue growing to 11.6 quadrillion Btu in 2025, economies, especially in Western Europe and Japan. at a 3.6-percent average annual growth rate from 2002 to Transitional Economies 2025.

Many of the EE/FSU countriesand the region as a Electricity demand for commercial applications is ex-wholeare expected to see their populations decline pected to grow rapidly in emerging economies as more over the forecast period. Nevertheless, increasing com- clinics, schools, and businesses gain access to electricity.

mercial activity and rising incomes are expected to lead Annual growth in commercial delivered electricity use to 1.1-percent average annual growth in delivered is expected to average 4.3 percent through 2025 (Figure energy use in the regions commercial sector between 23), with projected consumption of 5.4 quadrillion Btu in 2002 and 2025 (Figure 23). Commercial sector electricity Figure 23. Growth in Commercial Sector Delivered Figure 22. Commercial Sector Energy Energy Consumption by Region and Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 Fuel, 2002-2025 Quadrillion Btu Average Annual Percent Change 40 Mature Market Economies Mature Market Economies 6 Transitional Economies Transitional Economies Emerging Economies 30 Emerging Economies 4

20 2 0

10

-2 Oil Natural Coal Electricity Total 0 Gas Delivered 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Energy Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Mar-Energy Markets (2005). kets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 19

2015 and 6.9 quadrillion Btu in 2025. The projected produced by the heavy, energy-intensive industries increase in commercial electricity demand is com- (such as steelmaking). These general trends are pro-pounded in nations with quickly growing economies, jected to continue.

such as China, as they begin to shift away from heavy manufacturing toward services. Similar developments are expected for the other mature market economies, as increasing international trade fos-Increasing commercial activity is expected to lead to ters a shift toward a less energy-intensive mix of indus-rapid growth in natural gas demand as well. In the fore- trial activity. For example, many of Japans heavy cast, commercial demand for natural gas grows by 5.7 industries are reducing their output as demand for percent per year from 2002 through 2015 and by 4.6 per- energy-intensive materials increasingly is met by cent per year from 2002 through 2025, as several devel- imports from China and other Asian countries. In Ger-oping countries focus on expanding the infrastructure many, a decline in industrial energy intensity in the necessary for delivery of this relatively clean fuel. Com- early 1990s was largely the result of closures of heavy mercial sector oil consumption is expected to increase industries in the former East Germany after reunifica-from 1.6 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 2.4 quadrillion Btu in tion. Much of Germanys inefficient, energy-intensive 2015 and 2.6 quadrillion Btu in 2025 in the emerging eastern capacity has already been shut down, but further economies, increasing more rapidly in areas where natu- improvements are projected as capital stock is replaced ral gas availability is limited. Although consumption of and modernized.

coal is expected to increase in the forecast, its share of commercial energy use in the emerging economies is Transitional Economies projected to decline from 8 percent in 2002 to 5 percent in In the EE/FSU countries, industrial sector energy use is 2025. projected to grow by 1.6 percent per year over the fore-cast period, from 25.3 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 31.4 qua-Industrial Sector drillion Btu in 2015 and 36.4 quadrillion Btu in 2025 Energy is consumed in the industrial sector by a diverse (Figure 24). During the Soviet era, abundant energy group of industriesincluding manufacturing, agricul- resources in the FSU, along with centralized decision-ture, mining, and constructionand for a wide range of making, led to the construction of energy-inefficient activities, such as process and assembly uses, space con- industrial capacity. As the transition to market econo-ditioning, and lighting. Overall energy demand in the mies progresses, and as inefficient capacity is replaced industrial sector varies across regions and countries of with modern facilities, the intensity of energy use in the the world, based on the level and mix of economic activ- industrial sector of the transitional EE/FSU economies is ity, technological development, and population, among projected to decline more rapidly than in rest of the other factors. world.

Worldwide, energy consumption in the industrial sector is projected to grow by 2.1 percent per year from 2002 to Figure 24. Industrial Sector Energy Consumption 2025. Industrial energy consumption is expected to by Region, 2002-2025 increase in all countries and regions; however, industrial Quadrillion Btu sector energy use in the mature market economies (in 140 particular, Japan, the United States, and Western Mature Market Economies Europe) is expected to grow at a much slower pace1.0 120 Transitional Economies percent per yearthan in the emerging economies 100 Emerging Economies (China and other emerging Asia and the Middle East),

where industrial sector energy demand is projected to 80 expand by 3.3 percent per year or more (Figure 24).

60 Mature Market Economies The mature market economies generally have more 40 energy-efficient industrial operations and a mix of industrial output that is more heavily weighted toward 20 non-energy-intensive sectors than do the other country 0

groups. For example, in the United States, the manufac- 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 turing share of total industrial output has declined Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

steadily over the past two decades, while the output International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) share for service industries (included in the commercial (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

sector) has increased. Additionally, within the U.S. man- iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global ufacturing sector, a smaller share of output has been Energy Markets (2005).

20 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Russia has the worlds largest natural gas reserves. As a historical rates for rapidly developing Asian countries result, natural gas is projected to supply 40 percent of the like South Korea and China. Energy use for industrial increase in delivered energy use in the industrial sector sector purposes among the emerging economies is pro-of the FSU countries. In the transitional EE/FSU econo- jected to grow by 3.9 percent per year from 2002 to 2015, mies, only small changes in industrial fuel mix are pro- before slowing to an average of 2.4 percent per year from jected from 2002 to 2025 (Figure 25)most notably, 2015 to 2025 (Figure 26).

electricity is projected to claim a growing share of deliv-ered energy use in the FSU, and in the countries of East- Natural gas and oil accounted for more than one-half of ern Europe, natural gas is projected to make up a larger industrial energy consumption in 2002 in most regions share at the expense of coal. of the world. China and India were exceptions to that generalization, and both countries use considerable In 2002, in the aggregate, the transitional economies of amounts of coal (50 percent and 37 percent, respec-the EE/FSU region had a higher ratio of industrial sector tively), mostly owing to their rich coal resources and energy consumption to regional gross domestic product lack of other domestic energy resources available for than did either the mature market or emerging nations. development.

The relatively high ratio is a result of three factors: the transition to market-based economies has been slow; a Transportation Sector higher proportion of total output from the region is from Energy use in the transportation sector is dominated by the industrial sector than in the developed countries (the petroleum product fuels. Barring any increase in the service sectors are less energy-intensive than the manu-penetration of new technologies, such as hydro-facturing sectors); and much of the industrial sectors gen-fueled vehicles, the use of alternative fuels is production is from inefficient Soviet-era facilities.

expected to remain relatively modest through 2025.

Emerging Economies Thus, the IEO2005 reference case projection of 2.1-percent average annual growth in the worlds total The emerging economies are expected to see the most energy use for transportation from 2002 to 2025 is paral-rapid growth in industrial sector energy use worldwide leled by the forecast for transportation oil use (Table 3 over the projection period. Whereas mature market and Figure 27).

economies have shifted their industrial sector energy use from energy-intensive production (like steel and Energy use for the transportation sector is poised for its cement making) to service industries, the emerging strongest growth in the Asian emerging economies.

economies still have fairly energy-intensive industrial China is the key market that will lead regional consump-sectors. Projections of industrial energy growth (al- tion growth. India is also on a rapid growth path, and though still relatively high) are lower than the recent the regions mid-sized markets, such as Thailand and Figure 25. Growth in Industrial Sector Delivered Figure 26. Average Annual Growth Rates Energy Consumption by Region for Industrial Energy Consumption and Fuel, 2002-2025 in Emerging Economies, 2002-2025 Average Annual Percent Change Percent per Year 6 10 Mature Market Economies China India South Korea Transitional Economies Other Emerging Asia Middle East Africa 8

4 Emerging Economies Central and South America 6

2 4

0 2

Oil Natural Coal Electricity Total Gas Delivered 0 Energy 2002-2025 2002-2015 2015-2025 Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Mar- iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global kets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 21

Indonesia, also are projected to post strong growth. In vehicle fuel economy. Fuel economy standards for cars China the number of cars has been growing by 20 per- are assumed to stay at current levels of 27.5 miles per cent per year, and the potential growth is almost unlim- gallon, and light truck standards are expected to ited. If the present patterns persist, Chinas car increase from 20.7 miles per gallon in 2004 to 22.2 miles ownership would exceed the U.S. rate by 2030; however, per gallon by 2007 [2]. For the stock of freight trucks, fuel large infrastructure barriers will have to be overcome for economy is projected to increase from 6.0 miles per gal-this to occur [1]. lon in 2002 to 6.6 miles per gallon in 2025. A larger gain, 24.1 percent, is expected for aircraft.

Mature Market Economies In general, the transportation sector of the mature mar- In comparison to the United States, transportation ket economies is fully established, with extensive infra- energy demand in Western Europe is projected to structure that includes highways, airport facilities, and expand more slowly, from 16.3 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to rail systems. Energy demand in the mature market econ-omies is projected to grow at an average annual rate of Figure 27. Transportation Sector Energy 1.2 percent, from 53.2 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 63.2 qua- Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 drillion Btu in 2015 and 69.9 quadrillion Btu in 2025. Quadrillion Btu 100 In the United States, the transportation sector accounts Mature Market Economies for almost one-fourth of the countrys total energy con- 80 Transitional Economies sumption; and in the IEO2005 reference case, U.S. trans- Emerging Economies portation energy demand is projected to grow from 26.9 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 34.2 quadrillion Btu in 2015 60 and 39.4 quadrillion Btu in 2025. The United States is the largest user of transportation energy among the mature 40 market economies and is projected to consume 56 per-cent of the regions total for the transportation sector in 2025. 20 Fuel economy for the U.S. light-duty vehicle stock is pro-0 jected to improve by 5 percent over the forecast period. 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Strong macroeconomic and demographic factors are Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

expected to increase the demand for larger, more power- International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) ful vehicles in the United States; however, advanced (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

technologies and materials are expected to provide iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global increased performance and size while improving new Energy Markets (2005).

Table 3. Transportation Energy Consumption and Total Oil Consumption by Region, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Average Annual Projections Percent Change Region 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2015 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies Transportation Energy . . . . . . . . 53.2 59.4 63.2 66.3 69.9 1.3 1.2 Total Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.8 96.4 101.3 105.5 110.3 1.0 0.9 Transitional Economies Transportation Energy . . . . . . . . 5.9 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.5 1.9 1.6 Total Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 1.5 1.4 Emerging Economies Transportation Energy . . . . . . . . 26.2 39.1 46.1 51.9 58.9 4.4 3.6 Total Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.2 83.6 95.5 106.3 117.4 3.7 3.0 Total World Transportation Energy . . . . . . . . 85.3 105.5 116.8 126.2 137.2 2.5 2.1 Total Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159.4 193.1 210.6 226.6 243.4 2.2 1.9 Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

22 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

17.3 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 18.0 quadrillion Btu in consumption in the emerging economies and in the 2025. The transportation sectors share of total energy mature market economies narrows substantially over use is projected to remain about the same over the fore- the forecast (Figure 27).

cast period, at 24 percent. Low population growth, high Chinas energy use for transportation is projected to taxes on transportation fuels, and environmental poli-grow by an average of 6.0 percent per year over the fore-cies are expected to slow the rate of energy demand cast, from 4.1 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 10.4 quadrillion growth in Western Europe to an average rate of 0.4 per-Btu in 2015 and 15.5 quadrillion Btu in 2025. Virtually all cent per year over the 2002 to 2025 time period.

of the increase in transportation energy consumption is Oil is projected to remain Western Europes largest projected to be in the form of petroleum products. Road energy source for transportation, with demand increas- transport is expected to be the primary factor in Chinas ing by 0.3 percent per year on average from 2002 to 2025. growing demand for transportation fuels. There were Transportation accounts for more than one-half of the 7.5 million automobiles and 6.4 million commercial increment in total oil use projected for the region, with vehicles in China in 2002 (as compared with 136.0 mil-the industrial sector accounting for the remainder. lion automobiles and 89.4 million commercial vehicles Declines in oil use are projected for the regions residen- in the United States) [3]. Personal travel in China has tial and commercial sectors. The fastest rate of growth in soared in the past two decades, with passenger miles Western Europes transportation fuel use is expected to traveled increasing fivefold [4]. Those trends are expect-occur in the aviation sector. Demand for diesel fuel is ed to continue over the projection period.

expected to increase more rapidly than demand for gas- In India, energy demand in the transportation sector is oline, because most countries in Western Europe are projected to grow at an average rate of 4.7 percent a year, expected to keep taxes on diesel fuel lower than those for from 1.4 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 3.1 quadrillion Btu in gasoline throughout the forecast period. 2015 and 4.1 quadrillion Btu in 2025. The transportation sectors share of total energy use is expected to grow Transportation energy use in Japan is projected to grow from 10 percent in 2002 to 14 percent in 2025. In compari-at an average rate of 0.2 percent per year from 2002 to son with other countries in the emerging Asia region, 2025, from 4.2 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 4.4 quadrillion some of Indias transportation infrastructure is well Btu in 2015 and remaining at that level through 2025, developedespecially the railways (although many mainly because of Japans aging population, projected rural areas still are largely inaccessible by rail). India has low birth rate, and high taxes levied on motorists. Pas- the most extensive railway system in the world, dating senger cars in Japan are subject to nine taxes, imposed on back to colonial times. An estimated 1.6 million people acquisition, ownership, and operation. The taxes, aimed are employed by the countrys railway system, making at reducing oil imports and securing government funds it the worlds largest employer [5].

for infrastructure projects, such as road maintenance and construction, account for one-tenth of total govern- In South Korea, transportation energy demand is pro-ment revenues. jected to grow by 1.9 percent per year, from 1.7 quadril-lion Btu in 2002 to 2.3 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 2.6 Transitional Economies quadrillion Btu in 2025. South Koreas total demand for Energy demand in the EE/FSU transportation sector as oil is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.3 a whole is projected to grow at an average annual rate of percent, from 4.5 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 6.1 quadril-1.6 percent, from 5.9 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 7.6 qua- lion Btu in 2025much slower than the average of 8.0 drillion Btu in 2015 and 8.5 quadrillion Btu in 2025. The percent per year over the past three decades, reflecting growth in transportation energy use in this region is the relative maturity of the South Korean transportation expected to be led by expanding ownership of private sector. Just over one-half of the countrys projected automobiles and an increasing role of trucking in freight increase in oil demand is expected in the transportation transportation. sector, with much of the remainder in the industrial sector.

Emerging Economies Energy demand in the transportation sector in the other For the emerging economies as a whole, transportation emerging nations of Asia (the largest of which are Thai-sector energy consumption is projected to grow by 3.6 land, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and percent per year, from 26.2 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to Hong Kong) is projected to grow from 6.2 quadrillion 46.1 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 58.9 quadrillion Btu in Btu in 2002 to 10.1 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 13.1 qua-2025the highest rate of growth in transportation drillion Btu in 2025. The transportation share of total energy use worldwide. In 2002, the emerging economies energy use in the region is projected to increase from 27 accounted for about 31 percent of world energy use for percent in 2002 to 29 percent in 2025, as national econo-transportation. In 2025, their share is projected to be mies continue to mature and rising standards of living 43 percent, as the gap between transportation energy result in increased motor transport.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 23

The Middle East region has a relatively small population 2. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy and is not a major energy consumer but rather an Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, exporter; however, rapid population growth is expected DC, January 2004), Table A7, web site www.

to result in more energy use for transportation in the eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/.

future. The regions energy demand for transportation is 3. S.C. Davis and S.W. Diegel, Transportation Energy projected to grow from 4.5 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 6.8 Data Book: Edition 24, ORNL-6973 (Oak Ridge, TN:

quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 8.0 quadrillion Btu in 2025. Oak Ridge National Laboratory December 2004),

Demand for transportation fuels in traditional exporting Tables 3.1 and 3.2, web site http://cta.ornl.gov/

countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman, the data/Index.shtml.

United Arab Emirates, Yemen, and, most notably, Iran

4. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook made the region a net importer of gasoline in 2003; how-2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), web site www.

ever, that trend is expected to be reversed by 2010, when worldenergyoutlook.org.

planned expansions of refinery capacity come on line.

5. World Markets Research Centre, Automotive Sec-tor Analysis: India and China (October 18, 2004),

References web site www.wmrc.com.

1. FACTS Inc., Asia-Pacific Databook 1: Supply, Demand and Prices (Honolulu, HI, Fall 2003), p. 3, web site www.factsinc.net/products/databooks.shtml.

24 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

World Oil Markets IEO2005 projects that world crude oil prices in real 2003 dollars will decline from their current level by 2010, then rise gradually through 2025.

In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) refer- barrels per day in April 2004 to 28.0 million barrels per ence case, world demand for crude oil grows from 78 day in July 2005, world oil prices generally continued to million barrels per day in 2002 to 103 million barrels per rise [1]. In June 2005, crude oil futures prices exceeded day in 2015 and to just over 119 million barrels per day in $60 per barrel, a record high price in nominal dollars [2].

2025. Much of the growth in oil consumption is pro-jected for the emerging Asian nations, where strong eco- Several factors have worked to keep world crude oil nomic growth results in a robust increase in oil demand. prices high in the near term. First, world petroleum Emerging Asia (including China and India) accounts for demand grew at a robust 3.4 percent (2.7 million barrels 45 percent of the total world increase in oil use over the per day) in 2004, reflecting dramatic increases in Chinas forecast period in the IEO2005 reference case. demand for oil-generated power and oil-based transpor-tation fuels, as well as a rebound in U.S. oil demand. Sec-The projected increase in world oil demand would ond, oil prices typically are sensitive to any incremental require an increment to world production capability of tightening of supply during periods of high economic more than 42 million barrels per day relative to the 2002 growth. On the supply side, there was very little spare crude oil production capacity of 80.0 million barrels per upstream capacity, and the spare downstream capacity day. Producers in the Organization of Petroleum Ex- was not always properly configured to produce the porting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major required slate of products. World oil inventories, in source of production increases. In addition, non-OPEC terms of days of supply, were unusually low. Next, supply is expected to remain highly competitive, with geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing countries major increments to supply coming from offshore including the continuing the war in Iraq and uncertain resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin Amer- prospects for a return to normalcy in Iraqs oil sector ica, and deepwater West Africa. The estimates of incre- and potential unrest in Nigeria and Venezuela contrib-mental production are based on current proved reserves uted to the volatility in world oil markets.

and a country-by-country assessment of ultimately recoverable petroleum. In the IEO2005 oil price cases, Tempered by high world oil prices, growth in world the substantial investment capital required to produce petroleum demand in 2005 is expected to remain strong, the incremental volumes is assumed to exist, and the while retreating somewhat from its 2004 pace. Any investors are expected to receive at least a 10-percent expectation of incremental supply tightness in non-return on investment. OPEC supply or downstream refinery capacity could cause crude oil prices to increase even further. As a In 2004, crude oil prices averaged $36 per barrel (see text result, the refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil box below), with prices turning upward throughout the in 2005 is expected to average more than $47 per barrel.

year and well into 2005. Although OPEC production OPEC producers may find it more challenging to main-quotas (excluding Iraq) were raised from 23.5 million tain high oil prices over the next few years, however, given the projected increase in non-OPEC supply.

World Oil Prices in IEO2005 Despite evidence that OPEC members have achieved some of their price goals in recent years by using a World oil prices in IEO2005 are defined on the basis of price-band strategy, production cutbacks have histori-average refiner acquisition cost of imported oil to cally had only limited success. OPECs market manage-the United States (IRAC). The IRAC price tends to be a ment strategies have often ended in failure, and its few dollars less than the widely cited West Texas successes for the most part have been the result of tight Intermediate (WTI) spot price. WTI is a higher qual- market conditions and disciplined participation by ity, lighter, low-sulfur crude than that represented by OPEC members. Currently, spare production capacity IRAC. In recent months, IRAC has been as much as 6 worldwidewith the exception of two or three Persian dollars a barrel lower than the WTI. In 2004, WTI Gulf members of OPECis negligible, making OPECs averaged $41.44 per barrel and IRAC averaged $36.00 consensus building easier. Non-OPEC production is per barrel (in nominal dollars). expected to show significant increases over the next 5 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 25

years, and a number of OPEC member countries have Chinas economic reforms and its political situation, the announced plans to expand production capacity in the potential for social unrest in Venezuela and Nigeria, short term. In an oil market environment with substan- Brazils impact on other Latin American economies, and tial spare production capacity, it will be more difficult uncertain prospects for the pace of economic recovery in for OPEC to achieve agreement among its members; the FSU all increase the risk of near-term political and however, obstacles to investment in new production policy discontinuities that could lead to oil market capacity in some areas with abundant resources may behavior quite different from that portrayed in the keep the growth in supply below its expected potential. projections.

Although OPECs share of world oil supply is projected World Oil Demand to increase significantly over the next two decades, com-petitive forces are expected to remain strong enough to World oil consumption rose by about 2.7 million barrels forestall efforts to escalate real oil prices significantly. per day in 2004, with the mature market economies Competitive forces operate within OPEC, between accounting for only about one-fourth of the increase.

OPEC and non-OPEC sources of supply, and between Demand in the emerging economies rose by almost 1.9 conventional oil and other sources of energy (particu- million barrels per day, with China accounting for more larly, nonconventional oil, natural gas, and coal). than one-half of that increase. Current growth in the emerging Asian economies is beginning to show signs of Non-OPEC producers have been somewhat slow in a return to the rapid economic expansion of the early reacting to higher oil prices; however, there remains and mid-1990s. Latin Americas oil demand continues to significant untapped production potential worldwide, grow at a modest rate. In the FSU, oil demand is especially in deepwater areas. Deepwater exploration expected to show a modest increase for 2004. In 2005, and development initiatives generally are expected to be global oil demand is expected to grow by about 2.2 mil-sustained worldwide, with the offshore Atlantic Basin lion barrels per day [3].

emerging as a major future source of oil production in both Latin America and Africa. In the IEO2005 reference case forecast, growth in world oil demand averages 1.9 percent per year over the fore-Although the lag between higher prices and increases in cast period. Most of the worlds incremental oil demand drilling activity seems to have increased in the aftermath is projected for use in the transportation sector, where of the low price environment of 1998 and 1999, non- there are currently no competitive alternatives to petro-OPEC production has increased by more than 3 million leum; however, several of the technologies associated barrels per day over the past 3 years and is expected to with nonconventional liquids (gas to liquids, coal to liq-add an additional 0.7 million barrels per day in 2005. uids, and energy crops that can be used to produce etha-More than one-half of the worldwide increase in non- nol and biodiesel) could reduce the pressure on OPEC production over the next 2 years is expected to conventional oil supply from the transportation sector.

come from the former Soviet Union (FSU), and the Of the projected increase in oil use in the reference case remainder is expected to come mainly from the emerg- over the 2002 to 2025 period, 61 percent occurs in the ing economies of the Atlantic Basin (Latin America and transportation sector (Figure 28). The industrial sector West Africa). Technology and resource availability can also accounts for a fairly large share of the projected sustain large increments in oil production capability at increase in world oil consumption: 28 percent of the prices well below the current level. increase is expected to be for industrial sector uses, mostly for chemical and petrochemical processes.

Incorporating the recent price turbulence into the con-struction of an intermediate- and long-term oil market On a regional basis, two parts of the world account for outlook is difficult and raises the following questions: most of the projected growth in world oil demand:

Will OPEC maintain its cutback strategy in order to keep emerging Asia and North America (Figure 29). Outside prices within a certain price band, or will the anticipated North America, oil consumption in the mature market increase in non-OPEC production exert downward economy regions grows much more slowlyby 0.3 per-pressure on prices? Will China and other emerging cent per yearin both Western Europe and mature mar-economies of Asia be able to sustain the current robust ket Asia, reflecting expectations of slow growth or economic growth and a corresponding increase in their declines in population and economic growth over the demand for oil in the long term? Will technology guar- next two decades.

antee that oil supply development will move forward In the emerging economies, strong expansion of oil use even if a low world oil price environment returns?

is projected, as robust economic growth fuels demand The uncertainties associated with the IEO2005 reference for oil to fuel burgeoning industrial sectors and rapidly case projections are significant. The war in Iraq, the expanding transportation use. The fastest growth in oil international war on terrorism, uncertain economic demand is projected for the emerging Asian economies, recovery in emerging Asia and Japan, the success of at an average rate of 3.5 percent per year over the 26 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

forecast period, and the other emerging economy Positive economic growth returned to the FSU in 1999, regions also are expected to experience fast-paced when high world oil prices and a devalued ruble helped increases in oil use. From 2002 to 2025, consumption of Russia, the regions largest economy and a major world petroleum is projected to increase on average by 2.1 per- oil exporter, post strong economic gains by boosting per-cent per year in the Middle East, 2.5 percent per year in formance in its industrial sectors and increasing con-Central and South America, and 2.7 percent per year in sumer demand for domestically produced goods. Even Africa. with the robust economic growth (an average of 4.4 per-cent per year) projected for the region, oil demand in the Economic development in Asia will be crucial to EE/FSU is not expected to be as strong in 2025 as it was long-term growth in oil markets. China, India, and the in 1990.

other nations of emerging Asia are expected to experi-ence combined economic growth of 5.5 percent per year World Oil Prices between 2002 and 2025, the highest rate of growth in the world. This robust expansion in gross domestic product The world oil price in the International Energy Outlook (GDP) translates to a 3.5-percent annual increase in 2005 (IEO2005) is defined as the annual average U.S.

regional oil use. The projected evolution of Asian oil refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil. Three dis-demand in the reference case could strengthen economic tinct world oil price scenarios are represented in ties between the Middle East and Asia, as Asian nations IEO2005, reaching $21, $35, and $48 per barrel in 2025, rely more and more on Middle East oil supplies. respectively, in the low world oil price, reference, and high world oil price cases in 2003 dollars. Although the In the transitional economies of Eastern Europe and the IEO typically uses the same reference case as the Annual FSU (EE/FSU), oil consumption increases on average by Energy Outlook, IEO2005 has adopted the October 1.4 percent per year in the reference case forecast, from futures case from the Annual Energy Outlook 2005 5.5 million barrels per day in 2002 to 7.6 million barrels (AEO2005) as its reference case for the United States. The per day in 2025. Oil use in the EE/FSU region dropped October futures case, which has an assumption of higher precipitously after the collapse of the Soviet regime in world oil prices than in the AEO2005 reference case, now the early 1990s, from 10.0 million barrels per day in 1990 appears to be a more likely projection.2 to 5.3 million barrels per day in 1997, as the regions GDP contracted by almost one-third. Growth in oil demand in In October 2004, the New York Mercantile Exchange the EE/FSU region has begun to recover in recent years (NYMEX) oil futures prices implied that the annual and by 2002 had reached 5.5 million barrels per day. average oil price in 2005 will exceed its 2004 level before Figure 28. World Oil Consumption by End-Use Figure 29. World Oil Consumption by Region and Sector, 2002-2025 Country Group, 2002 and 2025 Million Barrels per Day North America 150 Transportation Industrial Emerging Asia Commercial 119 Western Europe 111 Residential 103 100 95 Mature Market Asia 78 EE/FSU Middle East 50 2002 Central and South America 2025 Africa 0 10 20 30 40 0

2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Million Barrels per Day Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Energy Markets (2005). Markets (2005).

2 For detailed descriptions and comparisons of the AEO2005 reference, October oil futures, and other world oil price cases, see Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, DC, February 2005), pp. 40-50, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo. The reference case will be reconsidered for the next AEO. Based on information available as of July 2005, the AEO2006 reference case will likely incorporate world oil prices higher than those in the IEO2005 reference case.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 27

falling back somewhat. The AEO2005 October oil futures increases in oil consumption from 2002 to 2025 are 35 case is based on an extrapolation of oil prices loosely cor- million barrels per day and 53 million barrels per day, responding to the mid-term profile of prices on the respectively. Resources are not expected to be a key con-NYMEX futures market in October 2004. straint on world demand to 2025. Rather more important are the political, economic, and environmental circum-The low world oil price case reflects a future market stances that could shape developments in oil supply and where oil production becomes more competitive and demand.

plentiful. There are several ways in which this could come about. First, the OPEC countries could become less Oil prices have been highly volatile over the past 25 cohesive, with each producer attempting to sell as much years, and periods of price volatility can be expected in of its production capacity as the market will allow. the future principally because of unforeseen political Another possibility would be a decline in the costs of and economic circumstances. It is well recognized that non-OPEC oil production or the viable development of tensions in the Middle East, for example, could give rise competitive alternatives. To forestall the penetration of to serious disruptions of normal oil production and trad-alternatives and other sources of competition, OPEC ing patterns. On the other hand, market forces can play a would be expected to lower its price band and increase significant role in restoring balance over an extended production. The high price case, in contrast, assumes period. High real prices deter consumption and encour-that world oil prices will remain close to current levels age the emergence of significant competition from large for the foreseeable future. marginal sources of oil, which currently are uneconomi-cal to produce, and other energy supplies. Persistently Although oil prices rose by more than $9 per barrel over low prices have the opposite effects.

the course of 2004 and are expected to add an additional

$7 per barrel in 2005, such developments are not indica- Limits to long-term oil price escalation include substitu-tive of the long-term trend in the IEO2005 reference case. tion of other fuels (such as natural gas) for oil, marginal From anticipated high levels throughout 2005, oil prices sources of conventional oil that become reserves (i.e.,

are expected to decline gradually to $31 per barrel in economically viable) when prices rise, and nonconven-2010, then rise by about 0.8 percent per year to $35 in tional sources of oil that become reserves at still higher 2025 (all price projections in 2003 dollars unless other- prices. Advances in exploration and production technol-wise noted). ogies are likely to bring prices down when such addi-tional oil resources become part of the reserve base.

The near-term price trajectory in the IEO2005 reference There are some oil market analysts, however, who find case is considerably different from that in the Interna- this viewpoint overly optimistic, based on what they tional Energy Outlook 2004 (IEO2004). Last years refer- consider to be a significant overestimation of both ence case price path did not reflect the upward price proven reserves and ultimately recoverable resources.

pressure in 2004 brought about by the conditions that have led to market tightness. In both the IEO2004 and Figure 30. World Oil Prices in Three Cases, IEO2005 reference cases, oil prices rise gradually from 1970-2025 about 2010 through 2025. This price path reflects the rec- 2003 Dollars per Barrel ognition that OPEC has been able to limit production for 70 the purpose of firming up prices and that continued 60 robust projections for oil demand, especially among the emerging economies, will to some extent maintain pres- 50 High Oil Price sure on oil markets. Reference 40 Three alternative long-term price paths are shown in Figure 30. In the IEO2005 reference case, projected prices 30 reach $35 per barrel in 2025 in 2003 dollars. In nominal dollars, the reference case price is expected to approach 20 Low Oil Price

$60 per barrel in 2025. In the low price case, prices are projected to reach $21 per barrel in 2009 and to remain at 10 about that level out to 2025. In the high price case, prices History Projections 0

are projected to reach $37 per barrel in 2013 and increase 1970 1980 1995 2004 2015 2025 steadily to $48 per barrel in 2025. While the three cases Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

shown in Figure 30 vary widely, they do not span the full Annual Energy Review 2003, DOE/EIA-0384(2003) (Washing-range of possible scenarios. ton, DC, September 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/

aer/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/

In all the IEO2005 oil price cases, oil demand is expected EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, DC, February 2005). Note:

to rise significantly over the projection period. In the IEO2005 uses the AEO2005 October oil futures case as its ref-high and low world oil price cases, the projected erence case.

28 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

The Composition of World Oil programs. Such behavior would tend to raise world oil prices.

Supply Reserves and Resources A three-step approach was used to determine the com-position of world oil supply in the three IEO2005 oil Table 4 shows estimates of the conventional oil resource price cases. The first step determined whether the oil base by region out to the year 2025. Proved reserves are resource base would be sufficiently robust to meet from the annual assessment of worldwide reserves pub-worldwide demand. The second step determined how lished by Oil & Gas Journal [4]. Reserve growth and much non-OPEC oil (both conventional and nonconven- undiscovered estimates are based on the World Petro-tional) could be produced at the assumed price path. An leum Assessment 2000 by the U.S. Geological Survey important criterion in the second step was whether pro- (USGS). The oil resource base is defined by three catego-ducers would receive an adequate rate of return on their ries: remaining reserves (oil that has been discovered investment (usually 10 percent). With total non-OPEC but not produced); reserve growth (increases in reserves supply having been established, the third step assumed resulting mainly from technological factors that enhance that the remainder of the worldwide demand would be a fields recovery rate); and undiscovered (oil that met by OPEC producers and determined an appropriate remains to be found through exploration). The informa-production capacity for each OPEC producer. tion in Table 4 is derived from the USGS mean estimate, which is an average assessment over a wide range of It is important to note what this simple three-step uncertainty for reserve growth and undiscovered approach did and did not assume. A business-as-usual resources. The IEO2005 oil production forecast is based oil market environment was assumed. Disruptions in oil on the USGS mean estimate.

supply for any reason (war, terror, weather, geopolitics)

Expansion of OPEC Production Capacity were not assumed. It was assumed that all non-OPEC oil projects that show a favorable rate of return on invest- It is generally acknowledged that OPEC members with ment would be funded, and that OPEC would act as the large reserves and relatively low costs for expanding residual supplier of oil to the world. For the forecast production capacity can accommodate sizable increases period out to 2025, there is sufficient oil to meet world- in petroleum demand. In the IEO2005 reference case, wide demand. Peaking of world oil production is not the production call on OPEC suppliers is projected to anticipated until after 2030. grow at a robust annual rate of 2.7 percent through 2025 (Table 5 and Figure 32). OPEC capacity utilization is In the IEO2005 reference case, world oil supply in 2025 is expected to increase slightly after 2002, reaching almost projected to exceed the 2002 level by almost 41 million 95 percent by 2015 and remaining at about that level for barrels per day. Increases in production are expected for the duration of the projection period.

both OPEC and non-OPEC producers; however, only about 41 percent of the total increase is expected to come Figure 31. World Oil Production in the Reference from non-OPEC areas. Over the past two decades, the Case by Region, 1970, 2002, 2010, and growth in non-OPEC oil supply has resulted in an OPEC 2025 market share substantially under its historic high of Million Barrels per Day 52 percent in 1973. New exploration and production 75 technologies, aggressive cost-reduction programs by Mature Market Economies OPEC industry, and attractive fiscal terms to producers by Transitional Economies governments all contribute to the outlook for continued Emerging Economies growth in non-OPEC oil production. 50 The reference case projects that about 59 percent of the increase in petroleum demand over the next two decades will be met by an increase in production by 25 members of OPEC rather than by non-OPEC suppliers.

OPEC production in 2025 is projected to be more than 24 million barrels per day higher than it was in 2002 (Figure 31). The IEO2005 estimates of OPEC production capacity in 2010 are slightly less than those projected in IEO2004, 0 1970 2002 2010 2025 reflecting a shift toward non-OPEC supply projects in Sources: 1970 and 2002: Energy Information Administration scenarios with higher prices. Some analysts suggest (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219 that OPEC members might pursue significant price esca- (2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.

lation through conservative capacity expansion deci- gov/iea/. 2010 and 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of sions rather than undertake major production expansion Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 29

Amidst enormous uncertainty, Iraqs role in OPEC in than $5.2 billion in oil exports allowed by United the next several years will be of particular interest. In Nations Security Council resolutions. The expansion 1999, Iraq expanded its production capacity to 2.8 mil- was required because of the low price environment of lion barrels per day in order to reach the slightly more early 1999. In the IEO2005 reference case, Iraq is Table 4. Estimated World Oil Resources, 1995-2025 (Billion Barrels)

Region Proved Reserves Reserve Growth Undiscovered Total Mature Market Economies United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.9 76.0 83.0 180.9 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178.8 12.5 32.6 223.9 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.6 25.6 45.8 86.0 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.8 19.3 34.6 69.7 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.7 5.9 10.1 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . 77.8 137.7 170.8 386.3 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.5 1.4 4.4 Emerging Economies China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 19.6 14.6 52.5 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 3.8 6.8 16.0 Other Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0 14.6 23.9 49.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 729.6 252.5 269.2 1,251.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.8 73.5 124.7 299.0 Central and South America . . . . . . . 100.6 90.8 125.3 316.7 Total World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,277.7 730.2 938.9 2,946.8 OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 885.2 395.6 400.5 1,681.3 Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392.5 334.6 538.4 1,265.5 Note: Reserves include crude oil (including lease condensates) and natural gas plant liquids.

Sources: Proved Reserves as of January 1, 2005: Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004), pp. 22-23. Reserve Growth (Total) and Undiscovered: U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000, web site http://greenwood.cr.

usgs.gov/energy/WorldEnergy/DDS-60. Estimates of Regional Reserve Growth: Energy Information Administration, Interna-tional Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0484(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2002), p. 32.

Table 5. OPEC Oil Production, 1990-2025 Figure 32. OPEC, Non-OPEC, and Nonconventional (Million Barrels per Day) Oil Production in the Reference Case, Reference High Low 2002 and 2010-2025 Year Case Oil Price Oil Price Million Barrels per Day History 75 OPEC (Conventional) 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 Non-OPEC (Conventional) 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . 28.7 Nonconventional Projections 50 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . 37.7 33.3 42.8 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . 41.3 33.0 49.3 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . 46.8 35.4 57.3 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . 52.7 37.9 65.2 25 Note: Includes the production of crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, refinery gain, and other liquid fuels.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219 (2002) 0 (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.

2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Note: IEO2005 uses the AEO2005 Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

October oil futures case as its reference case. International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219 (2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.

gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

30 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

assumed to maintain its current oil production capacity unlikely to be developed until the middle to late part of of about 2.0 million barrels per day into 2005. Iraq has this decade. In addition, increased optimism about the indicated a desire to expand its production capacity production potential of Algeria, Libya, and Venezuela aggressively, to more than 6 million barrels per day, supports the possibility of reducing the worlds depend-once the oil sector is deemed safe from terrorist activi- ence on Persian Gulf oil.

ties. Preliminary discussions of exploration projects have already been held with potential outside investors, Non-OPEC Supply including France, Russia, and China. Such a significant The growth in non-OPEC oil supplies played a signifi-increase in Iraqi oil exports would ease market tightness. cant role in the erosion of OPECs market share over the past three decades, as non-OPEC supply became Given the requirements for OPEC production capacity increasingly diverse. North America dominated non-expansion implied by the IEO2005 estimates, much OPEC supply in the early 1970s, the North Sea and Mex-attention has been focused on the oil development, pro- ico evolved as major producers in the 1980s, and much duction, and operating costs of individual OPEC pro- of the new production in the 1990s came from the emerg-ducers. With Persian Gulf producers enjoying a ing economies of Latin America, West Africa, the reserve-to-production ratio that exceeds 108 years, sub- non-OPEC Middle East, and China. In the IEO2005 refer-stantial capacity expansion clearly is feasible. ence case, non-OPEC supply from proven reserves is Production costs in Persian Gulf OPEC nations are less expected to increase steadily, from 49.4 million barrels than $3 per barrel, and the capital investment required per day in 2002 to 66.2 million barrels per day in 2025 to increase production capacity by 1 barrel per day is less (Table 6).

than $5,940 [5]. Assuming the IEO2005 low price trajec- There are several important differences between the tory, total development and operating costs over the IEO2005 production profiles and those published in entire projection period would be about 24 percent of IEO2004:

gross oil revenues. Thus, Persian Gulf OPEC producers can expand capacity at a cost that is a relatively small *The U.S. production decline was somewhat more percentage of projected gross revenues. severe in the IEO2004 projections than in this years forecast, with IEO2005 projecting lower exploration For OPEC producers outside the Persian Gulf, the cost to and production costs coupled with more optimistic expand production capacity by 1 barrel per day is con- finding rates in the National Petroleum Reserve-siderably greater, exceeding $13,270 in some member Alaska.

nations; yet those producers can expect cost-to-revenue

• The outlook for growth in Russias oil production is ratios of about 41 percent on investments to expand pro-slightly more optimistic in IEO2005 as Russian com-duction capacity over the long term, even in the low panies in alliance with Western service companies price case [5]. Venezuela has the greatest potential for continue to surprise industry experts with produc-capacity expansion and could aggressively increase its tivity increases in West Siberia.

production capacity by more than 1.0 million barrels per day, to between 4 and 5 million barrels per day in the Table 6. Non-OPEC Oil Production, 1990-2025 mid-term. It is unclear, however, whether the current (Million Barrels per Day) political climate will support the outside investment required for any substantial expansion of Venezuelas Reference High Low production capacity. Tables E1-E6 in Appendix E show Year Case Oil Price Oil Price the ranges of production potential for both OPEC and History non-OPEC producers. 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . 42.1 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . 49.4 The reference case projection implies aggressive efforts Projections by OPEC member nations to apply or attract investment 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . 56.6 59.6 55.0 capital to implement a wide range of production capac- 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . 61.7 66.7 59.0 ity expansion projects. The combination of potential 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . 63.9 70.7 60.5 profitability and the threat of competition from non-2025 . . . . . . . . . . . 66.2 75.1 62.4 OPEC suppliers provides a rationale for the assumption Note: Includes the production of crude oil, natural gas plant of a relatively aggressive expansion strategy.

liquids, refinery gain, and other liquid fuels.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

In the IEO2005 reference case, OPEC members outside International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219 (2002) the Persian Gulf are expected to increase their produc- (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.

tion potential substantially, despite their higher capacity gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global expansion costs. There is much optimism regarding Energy Markets (2005). Note: IEO2005 uses the AEO2005 Nigerias offshore production potential, although it is October oil futures case as its reference case.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 31

• The outlook for production of nonconventional liq- gradually to less than 700,000 barrels per day in 2025.

uids (especially from oil sands and ultra-heavy oils) Papua New Guinea continues to add to its reserve pos-is somewhat more optimistic in IEO2005 as produc- ture and is expected to achieve production volumes tion costs decline and markets evolve. approaching 110,000 barrels per day by the end of this decade, followed by only a modest decline over the

• In the IEO2005 projections, Caspian output is remainder of the forecast period. Exploration and expected to exceed 3.3 million barrels per day in 2010 test-well activity have pointed to some production and to increase steadily thereafter. There still potential for Bangladesh and Myanmar, but significant remains a great deal of uncertainty about export output is not expected until after 2010.

routes from the Caspian Basin region.

Oil producers in Central and South America have signif-In IEO2005, the decline in North Sea production is icant potential for increasing output over the next slowed slightly, based on the implementation of strate-decade. Brazil became a million barrel per day producer gies for redeveloping mature fields. Production from in 1999, with considerable production potential waiting Norway, Western Europes largest producer, is expected to be tapped. Brazils production is expected to rise to peak at about 3.6 million barrels per day in 2006 and throughout the forecast period and to top 3.5 million then decline gradually to about 2.5 million barrels per barrels per day in 2025. Colombias current economic day by the end of the forecast period with the maturing downturn and civil unrest have delayed development of of some of its larger and older fields. The United King-its upstream sector, but its output is expected to top dom sector is expected to produce about 2.2 million bar-610,000 barrels per day within the decade and continue rels per day in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 million to show modest increases for the remainder of the fore-barrels per day in 2025.

cast period. In both Brazil and Colombia, the oil sector Two non-OPEC Persian Gulf producers are expected to would benefit significantly from the creation of favor-increase output gradually through 2010. Enhanced able climates for foreign investment. Argentina is recovery techniques are expected to increase current expected to increase its production volumes by at least output in Oman by more than 190,000 barrels per day, 65,000 barrels per day over the next 3 years, and by the with only a gradual production decline anticipated after end of the decade it could possibly to become a million 2010. Current oil production in Yemen is expected to barrel per day producer. Although the current political increase by at least 50,000 barrels per day within the next situation in Ecuador is in transition, there is still opti-5 years, and those levels could show a slight increase mism that Ecuador will double production volumes throughout the projection period. Syria is expected to over the forecast period.

hold its production flat out to 2015, but little in the way Several West African producersAngola, Cameroon, of new resource potential will allow anything except Chad, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, declining production volumes from 2015 to 2025.

Mauritania, Niger, Sao Tome and Principe, and Ivory Oil producers in the Pacific Rim are expected to increase Coastare expected to reap the benefits of substantial their production volumes significantly as a result of exploration activity, especially if the current high prices enhanced exploration and extraction technologies. persist. Angola is expected to become a million barrel Indias deepwater prospects are expected to show some per day producer by the end of this decade. Given the encouraging production increases in this decade, with excellent deepwater exploration results, Angola could the potential for significant increases near the end of the produce volumes of up to 3.4 million barrels per day in forecast period. Deepwater fields offshore from the Phil- the later years of the forecast. The other West African ippines have resulted in an improved reserve picture, producers with offshore tracts are expected to increase with production expected to exceed 75,000 barrels per output by up to 1.1 million barrels per day for the dura-day by the end of the forecast period. Vietnams tion of the forecast.

long-term production potential still is viewed with con-siderable optimism, although exploration activity has North African producers Egypt and Tunisia produce been slower than originally hoped. Output from Viet- mainly from mature fields and show little promise of namese fields is projected to exceed 375,000 barrels per adding to their reserve posture. As a result, their pro-day in 2015. duction volumes are expected to decline gradually over the forecast period. In East Africa, Sudan is expected to Australia has continued to make additions to its proved produce significant volumes by the end of this decade reserves, and it is possible that its oil production could and could exceed 500,000 barrels per day by the end of exceed 800,000 barrels per day by the end of this decade. the forecast period. Eritrea, Somalia, and South Africa Malaysia shows little potential for any significant new also have some resource potential, but they are not finds, and its output is expected to peak at around expected to produce significant volumes until late in the 750,000 barrels per day in this decade and then decline forecast.

32 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

In North America, moderately declining U.S. output is barrels per day in 2010. Three factors generally are given expected to be supplemented by significant production credit for the impressive resiliency of non-OPEC pro-increases in Canada and Mexico. Canadas conventional duction: development of new exploration and produc-oil output is expected to contract steadily, by about tion technologies, efforts by the oil industry to reduce 600,000 barrels per day over the next 20 years, but an costs, and efforts by producer governments to promote additional 3.5 million barrels per day of nonconven- exploration and development by encouraging outside tional output from oil sands projects is expected to be investors with attractive fiscal terms.

added. Expected production volumes in Mexico exceed 4.2 million barrels per day by the end of the decade and Worldwide Petroleum Trade continue to increase out to the end of the forecast period, by another 500,000 barrels per day. In 2002, the mature market economies imported 16.6 million barrels of oil per day from OPEC producers.

With higher oil prices assumed to continue, oil produc- Of that total, 10.1 million barrels per day came from the tion in the FSU is expected to exceed 15.0 million barrels Persian Gulf region. Oil movements to mature market per day in 2015, based in large part on a more optimistic economies represented 67 percent of the total petroleum outlook for investment in Russia. The long-term produc- exported by OPEC member nations and 60 percent of all tion potential for the FSU still is regarded with consider- Persian Gulf exports (Table 7). By the end of the forecast able optimism, especially for the resource-rich Caspian period, OPEC exports to mature market economies in Basin region. The IEO2005 reference case shows FSU the reference case are estimated to be about 10.3 million output exceeding 17.5 million barrels per day in 2025, barrels per day higher than their 2002 level, and more implying export volumes of more than 12 million barrels than one-half of the increase is expected to come from per day. In China, oil production is expected to decline the Persian Gulf region.

slightly to about 3.5 million barrels per day in 2025.

China has voiced an interest in expanding its domestic Despite such a substantial increase, the share of total oil resource base and perhaps developing coal-to- petroleum exports that goes to the mature market econ-liquids technologies. omy nations in 2025 is projected to be almost 11 percent-age points below their 2002 share, and the share of The estimates for non-OPEC production potential pre- Persian Gulf exports going to the mature market econo-sented in this outlook are based on such parameters as mies is projected to fall by about 17 percent. The signifi-numbers of exploration wells, finding rates, reserve-to- cant shift expected in the balance of OPEC export shares production ratios, advances in both exploration and between the mature market economies and emerging extraction technologies, and sensitivity to changes in the economies is a direct result of the economic growth world oil price. A critical component of the forecasting anticipated for the economically developing nations of methodology is the constraint placed on the exploration the world, especially those of Asia. OPEC petroleum and development of non-OPEC undiscovered resources. exports to emerging economies are expected to increase For the purpose of the three IEO2005 price cases, no by 17 million barrels per day over the forecast period, more than 15, 30, and 45 percent of the mean USGS esti- with more than 70 percent of the increase going to the mate of non-OPEC undiscovered oil is developed over emerging economies of Asia. China, alone, is likely to the forecast period in the low, reference, and high price import about 7.3 million barrels per day from OPEC in cases, respectively. In all price cases, OPEC producers 2025, virtually all of which is expected to come from Per-are assumed to be the source of the required residual sian Gulf producers.

supply.

North Americas petroleum imports from the Persian The expectation in the late 1980s and early 1990s was Gulf in the reference case are expected to more than dou-that non-OPEC production in the longer term would ble over the forecast period (Figure 33). At the same stagnate or decline gradually in response to resource time, over 46 percent of total North American imports in constraints. The relatively insignificant cost of develop- 2025 are expected to be from Atlantic Basin producers ing oil resources within OPEC countries (especially and refiners, with significant increases anticipated in those in the Persian Gulf region) was considered such an crude oil imports from Latin American producers, overwhelming advantage that non-OPEC production including Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.

potential was viewed with considerable pessimism. In West African producers, including Nigeria and Angola, actuality, however, despite several periods of relatively are also expected to increase their export volumes to low prices, non-OPEC production has risen every year North America. Caribbean Basin refiners are expected to since 1993, adding more than 6.9 million barrels per day account for most of the increase in North Americas between 1993 and 2002. imports of refined products.

It is expected that non-OPEC producers will continue With a moderate decline in North Sea production, West-to increase output, producing an additional 7.2 million ern Europe is expected to import increasing amounts Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 33

from Persian Gulf producers and from OPEC member to increase by more than 45 million barrels per day by nations in both northern and western Africa. Substantial 2025. Substantial growth in distillation capacity is imports from the Caspian Basin are also expected. expected in the Middle East, Central and South America, Mature market Asian nations are expected to increase and especially in the Asia Pacific region. Refiners in their already heavy dependence on Persian Gulf oil. The North America and Europe, while making only modest emerging economies of the Pacific Rim are expected to additions to their distillation capacity, are expected to more than double their total petroleum imports between continue improving product quality and enhancing the 2002 and 2025. usefulness of the heavier portion of the barrel through investment in downstream capacity. Likewise, future Worldwide crude oil distillation capacity was about 82 investments by emerging economies are expected to million barrels per day at the beginning of 2003. To meet include more advanced configurations designed to meet the projected growth in international oil demand in the the anticipated increase in demand for lighter products, reference case, worldwide refining capacity would have especially transportation fuels.

Table 7. Worldwide Petroleum Trade in the Reference Case, 2002 and 2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

Importing Region Mature Market Economies Emerging Market Economies North Western Pacific Rest of Total Exporting Region America Europe Asia Total Rim China World Total Exports 2002 OPEC Persian Gulf . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.9 4.4 10.1 3.2 0.9 2.5 6.6 16.7 North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 2.1 0.0 2.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.8 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 0.5 0.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 South America . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 0.1 0.1 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 2.3 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 Total OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 5.6 4.8 16.6 4.3 0.9 2.9 8.1 24.7 Non-OPEC North Sea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 4.5 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 Caribbean Basin . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . 0.3 3.6 0.3 4.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.5 Other Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . 5.5 3.6 1.2 10.3 3.0 1.3 5.7 10.0 20.3 Total Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . 7.0 11.8 1.5 20.3 3.3 1.3 5.9 10.5 30.8 Total Petroleum Imports . . . 13.2 17.4 6.3 36.9 7.6 2.2 8.8 18.6 55.5 2025 OPEC Persian Gulf . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 4.5 5.1 15.4 8.7 6.4 4.9 20.0 35.4 North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 3.1 0.1 3.7 0.8 0.3 0.5 1.6 5.3 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.1 0.3 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.2 2.5 5.5 South America . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 0.1 0.4 4.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 4.9 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 Total OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.9 8.8 6.2 26.9 12.0 7.3 6.2 25.5 52.4 Non-OPEC North Sea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 3.4 0.0 3.9 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 4.4 Caribbean Basin . . . . . . . . . 1.4 0.5 0.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.8 1.4 3.5 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . 0.5 3.3 0.6 4.4 0.7 3.1 1.5 5.3 9.7 Other Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . . 6.8 2.9 0.4 10.1 3.1 0.3 2.5 5.9 16.0 Total Non-OPEC. . . . . . . . 9.2 10.1 1.2 20.5 4.7 3.4 5.0 13.1 33.6 Total Petroleum Imports . . . 21.1 18.9 7.4 47.4 16.7 10.7 11.2 38.6 86.0 Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division. 2025: EIA, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, IEO2005 WORLD Model run IEO2005.B25 (2005).

34 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Figure 33. Imports of Persian Gulf Oil by Importing References Region, 2002 and 2025

1. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Million Barrels per Day 40 various press releases, web site www.opec.org.

Mature Market Emerging 2. M. Piotrowski, Nymex Crude Closes Above Economies Economies

$60/bbl on Iranian Concerns, Oil Daily, Vol. 55, 30 No. 23 (June 28, 2005), p. 3.

Other Other

3. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term North America Emerging Asia Energy Outlook, July 2005 on-line version, web site 20 www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html.

4. Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Oil

& Gas Journal, Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004),

10 pp. 22-23.

5. DRI/McGraw-Hill, Oil Market Outlook (Lexington, MA, July 1995), Table 1, p. 10.

0 2002 2025 2002 2025 Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219 (2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 35

Natural Gas Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the IEO2005 forecast.

Consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most robust growth in demand expected among the emerging economies.

Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing compo- natural gas is projected to increase by a more modest nent of world primary energy consumption in the Inter- annual average of 1.6 percent from 2002 to 2025, with the national Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) reference case. largest incremental growth in the mature market Consumption of natural gas worldwide increases in the economies projected for North America, at 11 trillion forecast by an average of 2.3 percent annually from 2002 cubic feet.

to 2025, compared with projected annual growth rates of 1.9 percent for oil consumption and 2.0 percent for coal The emerging economies are also expected to show the consumption. From 2002 to 2025, consumption of natu- strongest growth in natural gas production, with a pro-ral gas is projected to increase by almost 70 percent, from jected average increase of 4.1 percent per year from 2002 92 trillion cubic feet to 156 trillion cubic feet (Figure 34), to 2025 in the reference case (Figure 37). In contrast, nat-and its share of total energy consumption on a Btu basis ural gas production in the transitional economies is pro-is projected to grow from 23 percent to 25 percent. The jected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent, electric power sector accounts for almost one-half of the and production in the mature market economies is total incremental growth in worldwide natural gas expected to increase by an average of only 0.6 percent demand over the forecast period. per year from 2002 to 2025.

On a regional basis, the largest increases in natural gas The disparity between the increase projected for natural consumption worldwide are projected for the transi- gas consumption in the mature market economies and tional economies of Eastern Europe and the former the much smaller increase projected for their gas pro-Soviet Union (EE/FSU) and for emerging Asia (Figures duction points to an increasing dependence on the tran-35 and 36). Natural gas use in the EE/FSU expands by 63 sitional and emerging market economies for gas percent over the projection period; and in emerging supplies (Figure 38). In 2002, the mature market econo-Asia, gas use is expected to nearly triple from 2002 to mies accounted for 42 percent of the worlds total natu-2025. In the mature market economies, where natural ral gas production and 50 percent of the worlds natural gas markets are more established, consumption of gas consumption; in 2025, they are projected to account Figure 34. World Natural Gas Consumption, Figure 35. Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 1980-2025 1980-2025 Trillion Cubic Feet Trillion Cubic Feet 200 100 History Projections History Projections Mature Market Economies 156 80 Transitional Economies 150 142 128 Emerging Economies 111 60 100 92 73 40 53 50 20 0 0 1980 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 1980 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 37

for only 29 percent of production and 43 percent of con- Reserves and Resources sumption. As a result, the mature market economies are expected to rely on imports of natural gas from other As of January 1, 2005, proved world natural gas parts of the world to meet almost one-third of their natu- reserves, as reported by Oil & Gas Journal,3 were esti-ral gas consumption in 2025, up from 15 percent in 2002. mated at 6,040 trillion cubic feet36 trillion cubic feet (less than 1 percent) lower than the estimate for 2004 [1].

In general, world natural gas reserves have trended Figure 36. Increases in Natural Gas Consumption upward since the mid-1970s (Figure 39).

by Region and Country Group, 2002-2025 The largest revision to natural gas reserve estimates was made in Australia. The Australian government reported EE/FSU a two-thirds cut in its estimate of natural gas reserves Emerging Asia between 2004 and 2005, from 90 trillion cubic feet to 29 trillion cubic feet. Higher reserve estimates were North America recorded for the emerging economies, mostly in Africa Middle East and the Middle East. Nigeria alone accounted for most of the increment in Africa, with a gain of 17 trillion cubic Western Europe feet (11 percent), and Libya reported a smaller increase Central and South America of 6 trillion cubic feet (12 percent). In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia increased its estimate of reserves by 4 tril-Africa lion cubic feet (2 percent), accounting for all of the regions addition to reserves. Elsewhere, national esti-Mature Market Asia mates of natural gas reserves changed little over the 0 5 10 15 20 1-year period.

Trillion Cubic Feet Almost three-quarters of the worlds natural gas Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

reserves are located in the Middle East and in the transi-International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ tional economies of the EE/FSU (Figure 40). Russia, iea/. 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Mar- Iran, and Qatar combined account for about 58 percent kets (2005). of the worlds natural gas reserves (Table 8). Reserves in Figure 38. Natural Gas Consumption in Mature Figure 37. Natural Gas Production by Region, Market Economies by Source, 2002-2025 2002-2025 Trillion Cubic Feet Trillion Cubic Feet 80 100 Mature Market Economies Emerging Economies Imports Transitional Economies 80 EE/FSU Imports 60 Emerging Market Economies Domestic Production 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

3 Proved Reserves, as reported by the Oil & Gas Journal, are estimated quantities that can be recovered under present technology and prices. Figures reported for Canada and the former Soviet Union, however, include reserves in the probable category. Natural gas reserves reported by the Oil & Gas Journal are compiled from voluntary survey responses and do not always reflect the most recent changes. Signifi-cant natural gas discoveries made during 2004 are not likely to be reflected in the reported reserves.

38 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

the rest of the world are fairly evenly distributed on a The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically assesses regional basis. the long-term production potential of worldwide petro-leum resources (oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids).

Despite high rates of increase in natural gas consump- According to the most recent USGS estimates, released tion, particularly over the past decade, most regional in the World Petroleum Assessment 2000, a significant vol-reserves-to-production ratios have remained high. ume of natural gas remains to be discovered. The mean Worldwide, the reserves-to-production ratio is esti- estimate for worldwide undiscovered natural gas is mated at 66.7 years [2]. Central and South America has a 4,301 trillion cubic feet (Figure 41), which is approxi-reserves-to-production ratio of 55.0 years, the FSU mately double the worldwide cumulative consumption 77.4 years, and Africa 96.9 years. The Middle Easts forecast from 2002 to 2025 in IEO2005. Of the total natu-reserves-to-production ratio exceeds 100 years. ral gas resource base, an estimated 3,000 trillion cubic feet is in stranded reserves, usually located too far away from pipeline infrastructure or population centers Figure 39. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region, to make transportation of the natural gas economical. Of 1975-2005 the new natural gas resources expected to be added over Trillion Cubic Feet the next 25 years, reserve growth accounts for 2,347 tril-7,000 lion cubic feet. More than one-half of the mean undis-6,000 covered natural gas estimate is expected to come from Total the FSU, the Middle East, and North Africa; and about 5,000 one-fourth (1,065 trillion cubic feet) is expected to come from a combination of North, Central, and South 4,000 America.

Emerging Economies 3,000 Table 8. World Natural Gas Reserves by Country 2,000 as of January 1, 2005 Transitional Economies Reserves Percent of 1,000 (Trillion World Mature Market Economies Country Cubic Feet) Total 0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,040 100.0 Sources: 1975-1993: Worldwide Oil and Gas at a Glance, Top 20 Countries . . . . . . . . 5,391 89.3 International Petroleum Encyclopedia (Tulsa, OK: PennWell Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,680 27.8 Publishing, various issues). 1994-2004: Oil & Gas Journal Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 940 15.6 (various issues). Qatar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 910 15.1 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . 235 3.9 United Arab Emirates . . . . 212 3.5 Figure 40. World Natural Gas Reserves by Region United States. . . . . . . . . . . 189 3.1 as of January 1, 2005 Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 2.9 Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 2.7 Middle East Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 2.5 EE/FSU Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 1.8 Indonesia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 1.5 Africa Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 0.5 Emerging Asia Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 1.2 North America Turkmenistan . . . . . . . . . . 74 1.2 Uzbekistan . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 1.2 Central and South America World Total: Kazakhstan . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 1.1 Western Europe 6,040 Trillion Cubic Feet Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 1.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 1.0 Mature Market Asia Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 0.9 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 0.7 Trillion Cubic Feet Rest of World . . . . . . . . . . . 649 10.7 Source: Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Oil & Source: Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Oil &

Gas Journal, Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004), pp. 22-23. Gas Journal, Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004), pp. 22-23.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 39

Regional Forecasts percent per year. In 2002, most of the natural gas con-sumed in North America was produced within the North America region (Figure 43). In 2015, however, North America is North Americas natural gas production4 is expected to projected to consume 5.7 trillion cubic feet more than it grow at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent between produces, and in 2025 the gap between North Americas 2002 and 2025 in the IEO2005 forecast, whereas its gas natural gas production and consumption is projected to consumption (Figure 42) is expected to grow by 1.5 be 8.0 trillion cubic feet, illustrating the regions growing dependence on imports.

Figure 41. World Natural Gas Resources Currently, Canada supplies the bulk of U.S. imports of by Region, 2005-2025 natural gas, the United States supplies most of Mexicos Trillion Cubic Feet import needs, and less than 1 percent of North Amer-7,000 icas natural gas demand in 2002 was met by imports 6,040 from outside the region (Figure 43). Imports from other 6,000 regions are all in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) 5,000 into the United States through one of five existing LNG Other 4,301 regasification facilities. Four are onshore terminals that Central/South America 4,000 were built more than 20 years ago, located in Everett, Asia Massachusetts, Cove Point, Maryland, Elba Island, 3,000 Africa 2,347 Georgia, and Lake Charles, Louisiana. The fifth is the 2,000 North America Gulf Gateway Energy Bridge, located in the offshore Middle East Gulf of Mexico. It is the first new U.S. LNG terminal to be 1,000 constructed in more than 20 years, and it received its Former Soviet Union 0 0 0 first cargo on March 17, 2005.

0 Proven Undiscovered Reserve LNG imports are expected to increase substantially and Reserves Natural Gas Growth play a prominent role in the future, with LNG imports Source: U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assess-into the United States surpassing pipeline imports from ment 2000, web site http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/

WorldEnergy/DDS-60; Worldwide Look at Reserves and Pro- Canada by 2015. Although Mexico is expected to remain duction, Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, a net importer from the United States, LNG imports are 2004), pp. 22-23; and Energy Information Administration esti- expected to begin reducing Mexicos dependence on the mates. United States in 2007.

Figure 42. Natural Gas Consumption in Figure 43. Natural Gas Supply in North America by North America by Country, 1990-2025 Source, 2002-2025 Trillion Cubic Feet Trillion Cubic Feet 60 60 History Projections Imports 50 Mexico 50 Production Canada 40 40 United States 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

4 U.S. domestic production does not include production from any areas that currently are off limits for oil and gas drilling or production from methane hydrates.

40 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

New LNG regasification facilities are expected to begin unconventional production in western Canada, conven-operating in Mexico, the United States, and Canada tional production in the MacKenzie Delta and Eastern between 2005 and 2010. After 2010, the regions import Canada, and LNG imports. Supply is also expected to be capacity continues to expand throughout the remainder supplemented by natural gas from the MacKenzie Delta.

of the forecast period. More than 50 proposals to build A pipeline to bring natural gas from the MacKenzie new regasification facilities in North America have been Delta to market is expected to open in 2010. In spite of put forth, and projects in all three countries have already these supply additions, pipeline imports from Canada received at least some of the needed regulatory approv- are expected to decline toward the end of the forecast als. If all the proposed facilities were constructed, they because of strong growth in Canadas internal need for would add more than 20 trillion cubic feet to the regions natural gas.

import capacity, equivalent to almost 75 percent of the natural gas consumed in North America in 2002; how- In the IEO2005 reference case, Canadas natural gas pro-ever, the IEO2005 reference case does not assume that all duction is projected to grow at an average annual rate of the proposed facilities will be built. Still, the level of 0.1 percent. Whereas in 2002, production exceeded con-activity is a clear indication that LNG is poised to play a sumption in Canada by 3.6 trillion cubic feet, excess pro-much greater role in North American gas markets in the duction available for export to the United States is future. expected to drop to 2.5 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and to 2.1 trillion cubic feet in 2025.

According to EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO-2005), the share of total U.S. natural gas consumption In Mexico, natural gas consumption is expected to far met by net imports of LNG is expected to grow from outstrip production. Mexicos demand for natural gas is about 1 percent in 2002 to 15 percent (4.3 trillion cubic projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.0 per-feet) in 2015 and 21 percent (6.4 trillion cubic feet) in cent between 2002 and 2025, while production grows at 2025. LNG terminals are expected to be built relatively a rate of only 1.7 percent annually. Most of the growth in early in the forecast, with new terminals receiving sup- consumption is expected to fuel electricity generation.

plies on the Gulf Coast and in the Bahamas by 2010. A Although consumption in the residential and commer-new terminal in Baja California, Mexico, is projected to cial sectors combined accounted for less than 3 percent begin operation in 2007 to serve Northern Mexico and of the countrys total natural gas use in 2002, pipeline Southern California, with additional capacity in Baja infrastructure to serve residential and commercial users California added after 2020. Although new U.S. termi- is expected to continue growing, allowing their natural nals are projected to be constructed along the East Coast gas consumption to increase tenfold from 2002 to 2025.

after 2015, the Gulf Coast is expected to be the primary Mexicos dependence on natural gas imports, like that of location for new LNG import capacity.

the United States, is projected to increase. In the IEO2005 Most of the projected new U.S. LNG capacity is located reference case, imports are expected to grow from 13 in the Gulf of Mexico because of the locales many percent of Mexicos total natural gas consumption in advantages. There is spare capacity in the existing pipe- 2002 to 37 percent in 2025. The Mexican government is line infrastructure to move natural gas to market, and attempting to attract foreign capital to help in develop-deepwater ports are available to serve onshore facilities. ing the countrys own abundant resources and support-In addition, offshore pipeline systems are in place to ing production increases, but to date little increase has move natural gas to shore from offshore facilities. The been seen, and it appears that LNG will be the biggest extensive pipeline grid provides a ready ability to blend contributor to additional supply in the near term. In gases of varying heat content and thus, handle high-Btu addition to import facilities in Baja California, Mexico, LNG. Finally, the local environment appears to be favor- that will serve both Mexican and U.S. markets, an LNG able for the permitting of new facilities. Imports into facility is under construction at Altamira on Mexicos new Gulf Coast terminals are expected to account for Gulf Coast, and two facilities currently are under con-more than 70 percent of imports into new U.S. LNG ter- sideration on the Pacific Coast, primarily to serve the minals in 2025. Mexican market.

Canada is the only North American country that cur- Western Europe rently produces more natural gas than it consumes, and Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing fuel its domestic production is projected to continue to source in Western Europe, with demand projected to exceed its consumption through 2025. Most of Canadas grow at an annual average rate of 1.8 percent, from 15.0 natural gas production currently comes from the West- trillion cubic feet in 2002 to 22.4 trillion cubic feet in 2025.

ern Sedimentary Basin. Although conventional produc- More than 60 percent of incremental gas consumption in tion in the basin is in steady decline, the decreases are Western Europe between 2002 and 2025 is expected to be expected to be more than offset by increases in used for electric power generation. Natural gas is the Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 41

fuel of choice for new electricity generation capacity in new facilities have been proposed, including 4 that are Western Europe, where many nations are looking to under construction. Egypt, a new addition to the list of replace oil- and coal-fired plants that are more carbon LNG suppliers to the world as well as to Europe, sent its intensive than natural gas. In addition, natural gas is first-ever LNG cargo to Spain in March 2005.

expected to remain more cost competitive than renew-able energy sources, and countries such as Germany and Mature Market Asia Belgium have government policies that discourage the In Japan, natural gas shows the largest incremental expansion of nuclear power capacity and may result in growth in demand among primary energy sources over the retirement of existing nuclear power plants over the the forecast period. Japans natural gas consumption is forecast period. projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.5 per-cent, from 2.7 trillion cubic feet in 2002 to 3.8 trillion Natural gas consumption for electricity generation in cubic feet in 2025. Natural gas use in the industrial sector Western Europe is projected to increase on average by is projected to grow by 3.4 percent per year on average 3.6 percent per year from 2002 to 2025, surpassing the from 2002 to 2025, and to claim an increasing share of the use of coal and renewables for electricity generation (on countrys total gas consumption. Electricity generation a Btu basis) by 2015 and the use of nuclear power by remains by far the largest use for natural gas in Japan, 2025. The share of total electricity sector energy demand however, despite an expected decline in its share of the met by natural gas is projected to increase from 14 per- total, from 71 percent in 2002 to 67 percent in 2025.

cent in 2002 to 23 percent in 2015 and 28 percent in 2025.

In Australia and New Zealand, the industrial sector cur-With the notable exception of Norway, natural gas pro- rently is the predominant user of natural gas, and it is duction is in decline in most areas of Western Europe. projected to account for more than one-half of all gas In the mid-term future, production from Norway is consumption in Australia and New Zealand throughout expected to stave off a decline in the regions overall pro- the forecast period. Natural gas is also the fastest grow-duction; however, total natural gas production in West- ing fuel in the regions electricity sector. Natural gas con-ern Europe is still far from keeping pace with demand sumption as a percentage of total energy use in the (Figure 44). Western Europe received net imports of 4.9 electric power sector is projected to grow from 11 per-trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2002, accounting for cent in 2002 to nearly 13 percent in 2025, but this will one-third of total gas consumption. The regions reliance have only a modest impact on the electric power sector on imported gas is projected to grow to more than 40 fuel mix, which is dominated by coal. Even in 2025, coal percent of demand in 2015 and more than 50 percent in is expected to account for almost 73 percent of energy 2025. Currently there are 10 LNG regasification termi- consumption in Australia and New Zealands electric nals operating in Western Europe, and LNG receiving power sector on a Btu basis.

capacity is being expanded aggressively. More than 20 Transitional Economies Figure 44. Natural Gas Consumption in In the EE/FSU countries, natural gas consumption in the Western Europe by Source, 2002-2025 electric power sector is expected to surpass consump-Trillion Cubic Feet tion in the industrial sector by 2010, and to account for 44 25 percent and 43 percent of total gas consumption in 2025 Imports in the FSU and Eastern Europe, respectively. Total natu-20 Production ral gas demand in the EE/FSU region is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent from 2002 to 2025 (Figure 45). In both Eastern Europe and the FSU, 15 the electric power sector is expected to account for nearly 60 percent of the total increment in natural gas 10 use over the forecast period.

The FSU, which holds around 30 percent of the worlds 5 natural gas reserves, is much more dependent on natu-ral gas for its energy supply than is Eastern Europe (51 percent of total energy consumption in the FSU was sup-0 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 plied by natural gas in 2002, compared with 23 percent in Eastern Europe). Natural gas production in the FSU is Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) projected to grow at an average annual rate of just over (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ 2 percent from 2002 to 2025, and exports are projected iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global to increase to around one-quarter of total gas production Energy Markets (2005). in 2025 from 19 percent in 2002. Despite the Russian 42 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

governments recent dismantling of the oil giant Yukos, demand, accounting for fully two-thirds of the total foreign companiesespecially Western European com- increment in Chinas natural gas consumption from panieshave increasingly been pursuing investments 2002 to 2025. In 2002, natural gas consumption in the in Russias upstream gas sector. Gazprom, the majority electric power sector was 0.2 trillion cubic feet, account-state-owned Russian gas company, currently has a spate ing for only 1 percent of the countrys total electricity of suitors from which to choose its partners in the devel- generation. In 2010, natural gas consumption in the elec-opment of the giant Shtokmanovskoye field [3]. tricity sector is projected to surpass consumption in the industrial and residential sectors, and in 2025 it is pro-Emerging Asia jected to surpass their combined consumption, account-In China, natural gas is currently a minor fuel in the ing for more than one-half of Chinas total natural gas overall energy mix, representing only 3 percent of total use.

primary energy consumption in 2002; however, China is rapidly expanding infrastructure to facilitate the con- In India, as in China, natural gas is currently a minor fuel sumption of gas throughout the country as well as in the overall energy mix, representing only 6.5 percent imports of gas into the country. Overall natural gas con- of total primary energy consumption. Also like China, sumption in China is projected to grow at an average India is rapidly expanding infrastructure to facilitate annual rate of 7.8 percent, from 1.2 trillion cubic feet in consumption and imports of gas. Overall, Indias gas 2002 to 6.5 trillion cubic feet in 2025 (Figure 46). Only consumption is projected to grow at an average annual nuclear power generation is projected to grow more rap- rate of 5.1 percent, from 0.9 trillion cubic feet in 2002 to idly, at a 9.9-percent average annual rate over the fore- 2.8 trillion cubic feet in 2025. The electric power sector is cast period. projected to account for 71 percent of the total incremen-tal growth in Indias natural gas demand from 2002 to Natural gas consumption in Chinas residential sector, 2025.

projected to more than double from 2002 to 2010, received a boost with the start of commercial operation Total natural gas consumption in South Korea is pro-of the West-East pipeline in December 2004. Most of the jected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.7 percent early natural gas coming off the pipeline has been going from 2002 to 2025. In 2002, the residential sector was the to residential consumers and the remainder to industrial countrys predominant consumer of natural gas, consumers [4]. The pipeline is far from full utilization, accounting for 37 percent of the total, and the electric because several natural-gas-fired electric power plants, power sector was a close second, accounting for 34 per-which ultimately are to be the main consumers of cent of total gas use. In the forecast, natural gas use in West-East gas, are not yet complete and operational. South Koreas industrial sector increases on average by 7.0 percent per year from 2002 to 2025, compared with In the long term, the electric power sector is the main average annual growth of 1.7 percent in both the resi-source of projected growth in Chinas natural gas dential and electric power sectors. In 2015, more natural Figure 45. Natural Gas Consumption in Figure 46. Natural Gas Consumption in Transitional Economies, 1990-2025 Emerging Asia, 1990-2025 Trillion Cubic Feet Trillion Cubic Feet 50 25 History Projections History Projections 40 Eastern Europe 20 Other Asia Former Soviet Union South Korea 30 15 India China 20 10 10 5 0 0 1990 1995 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 1990 1995 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 43

gas consumption is expected in the countrys industrial Oil-exporting countries in the region have deliberately sector than in its residential or electric power sector. In sought to expand domestic gas use in order to make 2025, industrial natural gas use is projected to account more oil available for export. Many gas-rich countries in for more than 40 percent of all the natural gas consumed the region are also developing projects to monetize their in South Korea. natural gas resources, in particular through LNG and, more recently, gas to liquids (GTL) projects (see box on High world oil prices, beginning in 1999, provided the page 46). Qatar has secured several high-profile deals impetus for the strong growth in gas use in South that, when realized, will eventually boost its total LNG Koreas industrial sector, and it is partially at the exports to 77 million metric tons per year. One such deal expense of oil consumption that natural gas is expected is for the construction of what will be the two largest liq-to grow in this sector. On a Btu basis, the share of total uefaction trains in the world, at 7.8 million metric tons industrial consumption attributable to natural gas is per year each.

projected to grow from just 5 percent in 2002 to almost 16 percent in 2025, and the share attributable to oil is Africa expected to shrink from 58 percent in 2002 to just under Natural gas consumption in Africa is projected to grow 50 percent in 2025.

at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent from 2002 to 2025 In the other countries of emerging Asia, total natural gas (Figure 48), compared with average yearly growth rates consumption is projected to grow at an average annual of 2.7 percent for oil and 1.6 percent for coal. Gas con-rate of 2.9 percent from 2002 to 2025. Natural gas con- sumption is expected to surpass coal consumption by sumption in 2002 and throughout the forecast period is 2025, with oil remaining the dominant fuel throughout fairly evenly split between the industrial and electricity the projection period. Incremental growth in Africas sectors, with each accounting for more than 40 percent of gas demand from 2002 to 2025 is projected to be fairly total gas consumption. Penetration of gas into the resi- even across sectors, with the industrial, residential, and dential, commercial, and transportation sectors is pro- electric sectors each accounting for around one-third of jected to remain low with the three sectors combined total growth. Significant flaring of associated gas is still continuing to account for less than 10 percent of total gas common in Africa because of the remoteness of much of consumption in the other countries of emerging Asia the production and a lack of infrastructure to use all the throughout the forecast period. Natural gas infrastruc- associated gas produced. Despite continuing instability ture across the region is fragmented, with limited infra- in some countries of the region, the investment climate structure outside producing areas, and extensive in Africa appears to be welcoming to foreigners, with advances will be needed to meet growing demand in the massive investments planned for Egypt, Libya, Algeria, long term. Nigeria, and other parts of West Africa.

Middle East Natural gas consumption in the Middle East is projected to double between 2002 and 2025 (Figure 47). The overall Figure 47. Natural Gas Consumption in the share of natural gas in the Middle Easts fuel consump- Middle East, 1990-2025 tion mix increases over the forecast period at the expense Trillion Cubic Feet of oil, although oil will remain the regions predominant 20 History Projections fuel source. The share of total Middle East energy demand met by natural gas is projected to increase from 39 percent in 2002 to 45 percent in 2025, while the share 15 of total energy demand met by oil is projected to decline from 53 percent to 48 percent.

10 Natural gas is projected to retain its dominant position in the Middle Easts power sector, with 1.9-percent aver-age annual growth over the forecast period. In the indus- 5 trial sector, however, natural gas use is projected to grow by 4.0 percent per year, accounting for more than two-thirds of the overall incremental growth in gas 0 demand in the region from 2002 to 2025. The natural gas 1990 1995 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 share of total energy consumed in the regions industrial Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

sector is projected to grow from 46 percent in 2002 to 59 International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) percent in 2025, and oil is expected to lose share in the (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

sector (from 41 percent of industrial energy consump- iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global tion in 2002 to just under 30 percent in 2025). Energy Markets (2005).

44 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Central and South America nationalization of the industry. On the other hand, Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing fuel Brazil is proceeding with natural gas exploration and source in Central and South America, with demand pro- hopes to become self-reliant in the gas sector in the jected to increase on average by 3.3 percent per year, future. Major investments in the natural gas sector are from 3.6 trillion cubic feet in 2002 to 7.5 trillion cubic feet underway in Trinidad and Tobago and in Peru.

in 2025 (Figure 49). By 2010, natural gas is expected to overtake oil as the second most prevalent fuel for elec- References tricity generation in the region, with renewablespar-

1. Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production, Oil ticularly, hydropowerretaining their dominant share

& Gas Journal, Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004),

in the sector throughout the forecast period.

pp. 22-23.

The investment climate for natural gas production pro- 2. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 (London, jects in Central and South America has been less than UK, June 2005), p. 20.

ideal. Although Venezuela appears to be more welcom-

3. Russia, Cedigaz News Report, Vol. 44, No. 9 (March ing to foreign investment in its natural gas sector than its 4, 2005), p. 5.

oil sector, negotiations, especially on the Mariscal Sucre project, continue with no final decisions taken [5]. In 4. FACTS Inc., Natural Gas Pipelines and LNG Ter-Bolivia, two successive presidents were forced to resign minals in China: An Update, Gas Insights, No. 46 by street protests over the handling of the nations natu- (March 2005), p. 4.

ral gas resources. (Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozado resigned 5. World Markets Research Centre, Venezuela:

in October 2003, and Carlos Mesa resigned in June 2005.) Chevron Announces Significant Gas Discovery Protestors have called for increased government in Deltana Platform, web site www.

involvement in the natural gas sector, including possible worldmarketsanalysis.com (June 21, 2005).

Figure 48. Natural Gas Consumption in Africa, Figure 49. Natural Gas Consumption in Central 1990-2025 and South America, 1990-2025 Trillion Cubic Feet Trillion Cubic Feet 20 20 History Projections History Projections 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 1990 1995 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 1990 1995 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 45

Gas to Liquids: A New Frontier for Natural Gas The relatively high world crude oil prices of the past 3 competitive with diesel fuel at world oil prices above years have drawn attention to the potential for devel- $20 per barrel (see table below).

oping previously uneconomical natural gas reserves, such as associated gas (gas found jointly with oil in an Among the different GTL products, the diesel fraction, oil field) or stranded gas (gas that lies far from markets, in particular, is highly valued in the downstream mar-thus requiring major investments to commercialize). ket because of its unique properties that meet environ-Converting these resources to liquidseither to lique- mental regulations aimed at tightening emissions fied natural gas (LNG) or to petroleum liquid substi- standards for light- and heavy-duty diesel vehicles.

tutes, such as diesel, naphtha, motor gasoline, or other The GTL fuel reduces emissions relative to conven-products (such as lubricants and waxes) by employing tional diesel, as it contains near-zero sulfur and gas to liquids (GTL) technologycould provide a aromatics. GTL fuel also exhibits a high cetane number way to bring these gas resources to market. GTL has that enhances engine combustion performance.b recently become attractive as an option for monetizing Because they are compatible with existing vehicle stranded gas and complementing traditional commer- engines and fuel distribution infrastructures, GTL cialization opportunities such as LNG or pipeline fuels are the most cost-effective in reducing emissions transportation. among the nonconventional fuels.

The economics of GTL continue to improve with At present, worldwide there are at least 9 commercial advances in technology and scale. Capital costs have GTL projects at various stages of planning and devel-dropped significantly, from more than $100,000 per opment for the period 2009 to 2012 that could bring to barrel of total installed capacity for the original plants market an additional capacity of 580 thousand barrels to a range of $25,000 to $30,000 per barrel of capacity per day (see figure). More than 19 additional proposed today.a Moreover, Royal/Dutch Shell has commented projects could double that capacity beyond 2012.c that it expects to be able to reduce the costs to below (continued on page 47)

$20,000 per barrel. By comparison, the costs associated with conventional petroleum refining are around Current and Potential Gas to Liquids Capacity,

$15,000 per barrel per stream day after several decades 2005-2012 of technology improvements. The high oil prices of Thousand Barrels per Day recent years, moreover, have made transportation 500 fuels produced through GTL technology more com- Current 394 mercially viable. Few companies release the detailed 400 Potential costs of their GTL conversion technologies, but accord-ing to ConocoPhillips, assuming that the cost of 300 natural gas is $1.00 per million Btu, GTL fuel is cost 200 Cost to Produce a Barrel of Diesel Fuel:

120 Grass Roots Gas to Liquids Plant vs. Refinery 100 (2002 Dollars per Barrel) 34 33 Cost Component GTL Refinery 15 0

Natural Gas (at $1.00 per Million Btu) . . . . $10.00 Qatar Iran Nigeria Algeria Malaysia Crude Oil Note: In addition, a 45,000-barrel-per-day GTL plant in (at $20 per Barrel) $20.00 South Africas Mossel Bay has been switched temporarily Operating Costs . . . . . . . . . $ 4.00 $ 2.50 from processing coal to liquids to processing gas to liquids.

Sources: Interview with Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, Capital Recovery, Taxes . . . $14.00 $ 6.50 Qatar Minister of Energy and Industry, at the Center for Stra-Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $28.00 $29.00 tegic and International Studies in Washington, DC (May 9, Source: M. Culligan, ConocoPhillips, Director of Business 2005). Data from FACTS Inc., Gas Databook I (Honolulu, HI, Development-Qatar GTL Project, GTL: New Technology for 2005), p. 87; and AlgeriaInternatrional Tender for First a New Industry, presentation at the Fifth Doha Gas Confer- Gas-to-Liquids Project, Cedigaz News Report, Vol. 44, No.

ence (March 1, 2005). 15 (April 15, 2005), p. 4.

aPersonal correspondence with Sylvia Williams, Business Development Manager, Global GTL Development, Shell International Gas Limited (May 3, 2005).

bACTED Consultants, Gas to Liquids, Chemicals Australia Web Site, http://www.chemlink.com.au/gtl.htm (1999).

cFACTS Inc., Gas Databook I: Asia-Pacific Natural Gas & LNG (Honolulu, HI, 2005), p. 87.

46 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Gas to Liquids: A New Frontier for Natural Gas (Continued)

These projects are being initiated by companies operat- business and investment policies. Foreign investors ing in gas-rich countries such as Qatar, Iran, Russia, have also been encouraged to invest in Qatars energy Nigeria, Australia, and Algeria, where natural gas can sector because of its stable tax regulations, enforcement be developed at a cost of less than $1.00 per million of formal agreements, and the governments willing-Btu.d Qatars North Field, with an estimated 900 tril- ness to protect foreign investors through its legislature.

lion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, and the adjoin- In addition to the stable political climate, Qatar has ing South Pars field in Iran with an estimated 500 invested substantially to develop infrastructure and trillion cubic feet of reserves, are the cheapest natural services to support development of its natural gas gas resources in the world.e For other countries, such as resources. The country also provides guarantees for Nigeria and Algeria, GTL complements their LNG the safety of foreign employees and the potential for industries. GTL offers promise for use in Nigeria to future development through expansion of existing convert natural gas that would otherwise be flared. facilities.i In the second quarter of 2005, Moodys Inves-Huge capital investments are required for GTL, how- tor Service upgraded Qatars rating for long-term for-ever, and project financing and the availability of quali- eign currency bonds and bank bonds from A3 to A1.j fied contractors and operators may limit the growth of GTL projects on a year-to-year basis.f Qatar has been able to reach agreements with a group of financial institutions to fund their gas-related pro-Six of the nine confirmed GTL projects are located in jects (which exceed $60 billion) and has developed a the state of Qatar as joint ventures based on an inte- master plan to expand its port and double the size of grated development and production sharing agree- Ras Laffan Industrial city from 39 square miles to 77 ment (DPSA) with major international oil companies. square miles, in order to accommodate 7 GTL projects, Foreign companies have favored this approach, 16 LNG trains, 5 gas processing plants, 6 to 7 ethylene because it gives them an opportunity to book part of plants, and a variety of other gas-related industries. By the gas reserves on their balance sheet and support 2012, Qatar must produce nearly 25 billion cubic feet of their upstream and downstream activities.g By 2011, natural gas per day to support its commitments. Some Qatar is set to produce about 394,000 barrels of GTL 10.3 billion cubic feet per day will be needed to pro-products per day, the equivalent of 68 percent of the duce 77 millions metric tons of LNG per year; 4 billion total confirmed new capacity.h A list of Qatars GTL cubic feet per day for the 394,000 barrels per day of ventures is shown in the table below. GTL; about 5 billion cubic feet per day for petrochemi-cal, local power, and industrial projects; and about Unlike many other gas-producing countries, Qatar has established a favorable climate in terms of transparent (continued on page 48)

GTL Joint Venture Projects in Qatar (2002 Dollars per Barrel)

Initial Capacity Final Capacity Project (Barrels per Day) Start Date (Barrels per Day)

Oryx (QP/Sasol Chevron) . . . 34,000 2005 100,000 Pearl (Shell) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70,000 2009 140,000 ExxonMobil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154,000 2011 154,000 QP/Sasol Chevron . . . . . . . . 130,000 Delayed 130,000 Marathon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60,000 Delayed 120,000 ConocoPhillips . . . . . . . . . . . 80,000 Delayed 160,000 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528,000 804,000 Source: Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), March 2005.

dEnergy Information Administration, Model Documentation: Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module, DOE/EIA-M062 (Wash-ington, DC, May 2005), Appendix F-27.

eFACTS Inc., Irans Gas Industry and Export Projects, Gas Insights, No. 45 (March 2005).

fM. Culligan, ConocoPhillips, Director of Business Development-Qatar GTL Project, GTL: New Technology for a New Industry, pre-sentation at the Fifth Doha Gas Conference (March 1, 2005).

gWorld Markets Research Centre, Shell Holds Back on FID for Qatar GTL, web site www.worldmarketsanalysis.com (January 20, 2005).

hFACTS Inc., Gas Databook I (Honolulu, HI, 2005), p. 87.

iKeynote speech by Abdulla bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, Qatar Minister of Energy and Industry, at the Fifth Doha Gas Conference (Febru-ary 28, 2005).

jThird Annual Finance, Investment in Qatar Set To Open in London, Gulf Times (Qatar) (May 24, 2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 47

Gas to Liquids: A New Frontier for Natural Gas (Continued) 2 billion cubic feet per day for exports through the Dol- percent per year, from 41.7 million barrels per day in phin pipeline. Over a 25-year period (the duration of a 2002 to 67.3 million barrels per day in 2025. Even if all long-term LNG or GTL contract), Qatar would need to the proposed GTL projects worldwide materialized by produce 225 trillion cubic feet, or one-fourth of its 2025, assuming a 70-percent yield for diesel fuel from North Field reserve.k Although the 900 trillion cubic the natural gas stock, the expected GTL diesel supply feet of natural gas reserves from the North Field should of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025 would represent be sufficient to support these projects on a sustainable only a fraction of total world transportation sector basis, the quality of the gas and cost of development demand. Nevertheless, GTL diesel projects do provide will vary from project to project. As a result, there gas-producing companies with an opportunity to add could be delays in some of the plans. new value-added activities to their portfolios, as well as providing governments with an effective approach In the IEO2005 reference case, world demand for oil in to meeting policy and environmental objectives.

the transportation sector is projected to grow by 2.1 kQatar Seeks New Math From North Field, World Gas Intelligence (June 1, 2005), pp. 2-3.

48 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Coal Although coal use is expected to be displaced by natural gas in some parts of the world, only a slight drop in its share of total energy consumption is projected by 2025.

Coal continues to dominate electricity and industrial sector fuel markets in emerging Asia.

In the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) refer- direct heat for other industrial applications. Coal plays a ence case, world coal consumption is projected to limited role in the residential and commercial sectors, increase from 5,262 million short tons5 in 2002 to 7,245 and although it was once an important fuel for transpor-million tons in 2015, at an average rate of 2.5 percent per tation, its use for transportation is now virtually year. From 2015 to 2025, the projected rate of increase in nonexistent.

world coal consumption slows to 1.3 percent annually, Coals share of world energy consumption in the elec-and total consumption in 2025 is projected at 8,226 mil-tricity and industrial sectors is projected to remain rela-lion tons (Figure 50). World GDP and primary energy tively stable in the IEO2005 forecast. As a consequence, consumption also are projected to grow at a more rapid its share of total world energy consumption remains pace during the first half than during the second half of near its 2002 share of 24 percent. In the electricity sector, the forecast period, reflecting a gradual slowdown in coals share of energy consumption is projected to growth of the economies of emerging Asia, which cur-decline slightly, from 39 percent in 2002 to 38 percent in rently are expanding at a rapid pace.

2025. In the industrial sector, its share is projected to rise from 20 percent in 2002 to 22 percent in 2015 and to Coal consumption in 2002primarily in the electric remain at that level through 2025.

power and industrial sectorsaccounted for 24 percent of total world energy consumption (Figure 51). Of the To a large extent, the slight increase in the importance of coal produced worldwide, 65 percent was shipped to coal in the industrial sector results from the substantial electricity producers, 31 percent to industrial consum- growth projected for industrial energy consumption in ers, and most of the remaining 4 percent to coal consum- China, which has abundant coal reserves, limited ers in the residential and commercial sectors. In the reserves of oil and natural gas, and a dominant position industrial sector coal is an important input for the manu- in world steel production. Coal is expected to remain the facture of steel and for the production of steam and Figure 51. Coal Share of World Energy Figure 50. World Coal Consumption by Region, Consumption by Sector, 1970-2025 2002, 2015, and 2025 Billion Short Tons Percent 10 100 History Projections 2002 2015 2025 8 80 6 Emerging 60 Total Economies 39 39 38 4 40 Mature Market Economies 24 25 24 20 22 22 2 20 Transitional Economies 4 3 3 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 Electricity Industrial Other Sectors Total Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ 0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global www.eia.doe.gov/ iea/. 2015 and 2025: EIA, System for the Energy Markets (2005). Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

5 Throughout this chapter, tons refers to short tons (2,000 pounds).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 49

fuel of choice in Chinas rapidly expanding industrial restrictive criteria for the depth and thickness parame-sector. In the IEO2005 reference case forecast, the coal ters associated with both underground and surface share of Chinas industrial energy consumption minable seams of coal [2].

increases from 50 percent in 2002 to 55 percent in 2025. In the rest of the world, coals share of industrial energy Although coal deposits are widely distributed, 57 per-consumption is projected to decline from 15 percent in cent of the worlds recoverable reserves are located in 2002 to 13 percent in 2025. three countries: the United States (27 percent), Russia (17 percent), and China (13 percent). Another six coun-International coal trade is projected to increase from 714 triesIndia, Australia, South Africa, Ukraine, Kazakh-million tons in 2003 to 969 million tons in 2025, account- stan, and Yugoslaviaaccount for an additional 33 ing for approximately 12 to 13 percent of total world coal percent. In 2002, these nine countries, taken together, consumption over the period. Steam coal (including coal accounted for 90 percent of the worlds estimated recov-for pulverized coal injection at blast furnaces) accounts erable coal reserves and 78 percent of total world coal for most of the projected increase in world coal trade. production [3]. By rank, bituminous and anthracite coal Details of recent changes in international coal markets account for 53 percent of the worlds estimated recover-and an assessment of the long-term outlook for world able coal reserves (on a tonnage basis), subbituminous coal trade are provided at the end of this chapter. coal accounts for 30 percent, and lignite accounts for 17 percent.

Reserves Quality and geological characteristics of coal deposits Total recoverable reserves of coal6 around the world are are important parameters for coal reserves. Coal is a het-estimated at 1,001 billion tonsenough to last approxi- erogeneous source of energy, with quality (e.g.,

mately 190 years7 at current consumption levels (Figure characteristics such as heat, sulfur, and ash content) 52). Historically, estimates of world recoverable coal varying significantly from one region to the next and reserves, although relatively stable, have declined grad- even within an individual coal seam. At the top end of ually from 1,167 billion tons at the beginning of 1990 to the quality spectrum are premium-grade bituminous 1,083 billion tons in 2000 and 1,001 billion tons in 2003 coals that are used to manufacture coke for the

[1]. The most recent assessment of world coal reserves steelmaking process. Coking coals produced in the includes a substantial downward adjustment for Ger- United States have an estimated heat content of 27.4 mil-many, from 73 billion tons of recoverable coal reserves to lion Btu per ton and a relatively low sulfur content of 7 billion tons. The reassessment primarily reflects more approximately 0.8 percent by weight [4]. At the other end of the spectrum are reserves of low-Btu lignite or Figure 52. World Recoverable Coal Reserves brown coal. On a Btu basis, lignite reserves show con-siderable variation. Estimates published by the Interna-United States tional Energy Agency indicate that the average heat Russia content of lignite for major producing countries varies China Bituminous from a low of 4.6 million Btu per ton in Greece to a high India and Anthracite of 12.3 million Btu per ton in Canada in 2002 [5].

Australia Subbituminous A potential new entrant as a producer of lignite is Paki-South Africa Lignite stan, where interest has been sparked by the identifica-Ukraine tion of a huge lignite resource in the Tharparkar (Thar)

Kazakhstan World Total: Desert in the 1990s. The Thar coalfield covers an area of 1,001 Billion Short Tons approximately 3,500 square miles and is estimated to Yugoslavia contain 193 billion tons of lignite resources [6]. Four Other Countries tracks of the Thar coalfield currently undergoing more 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 detailed assessment, comprising an area of about 138 square miles, are estimated to contain 3 billion tons of Billion Short Tons recoverable coal reserves. This represents 89 percent of Note: Data for the United States represent recoverable coal Pakistans total recoverable reserves, as published by estimates as of January 1, 2004. Data for other countries are as of January 1, 2003. the World Energy Council [7]. Analyses of Thar lignite Source: Energy Information Administration, International indicate a relatively high heat content, between 9.4 and Energy Annual 2003, DOE/EIA-0219(2003) (Washington, DC, 12.7 million Btu per ton [8]. The Pakistan government June 2005), Table 8.2, web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. currently is working with two international companies, 6 Recoverable reserves are those quantities of coal which geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be extracted in the future under existing economic and operating conditions.

7 Assuming that world coal consumption continues to increase at the same rate as is projected for the years 2015 through 2025 (1.3 percent per year), current estimated world coal reserves would last for only about 90 years.

50 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

the Shenhua Group and AES Corporation, toward the To a large extent, the projections of increasing prices for development of several minemouth power plants in the natural gas after 2010, combined with projections of rela-Thar coalfield [9]. tively stable minemouth coal prices and slightly declin-ing rates for domestic transportation of coal, are the key Regional Demand Forecasts factors helping coal compete as a fuel for U.S. power generation. Increases in coal-fired generation are pro-Mature Market Economies jected to result from both greater utilization of existing Coal consumption in the mature market economies is U.S. coal-fired generating capacity and an additional projected to rise at a relatively even pace over the fore- 89,500 megawatts of new coal-fired capacity by 2025 cast horizon, from 2,067 million tons in 2002 to 2,261 mil- (3,600 megawatts of older coal-fired capacity is pro-lion tons in 2015 and 2,474 million tons in 2025 (Figure jected to be retired). The average utilization rate of 53). Much of the 407-million-ton increase in coal con- coal-fired generating capacity is projected to rise from 70 sumption projected for the mature market economies percent in 2002 to 83 percent in 2025.

over the forecast period is the result of expected strong growth in U.S. coal demand. While modest increases in In Canada, coals share of total energy consumption is coal consumption are projected for Canada and Austra- projected to decline slightly over the forecast period, lia/New Zealand, coal consumption in Western Europe from 13 percent in 2002 to 12 percent in 2025. In the near is projected to decline by 114 million tons between 2002 term, the restart of four of Canadas nuclear generating and 2025. In Western Europe, natural gas and renewable units after 2002 is expected to restrain the need for coal energy are projected to capture an increasing share of in eastern Canada. Between September 2003 and Janu-the regions total energy consumption, displacing both ary 2004, three of the four units, representing 2,000 coal and nuclear energy. megawatts of generating capacity, were returned to ser-viceUnit 4 at the Ontario Power Generation (OPG)

North America Pickering A plant and Units 3 and 4 at Bruce Powers Coal use in North America is dominated by U.S. con- Bruce A plant [11]. OPGs 500-megawatt Unit 1 at the sumption. In 2002, the United States consumed 1,066 Pickering A plant is scheduled to come back on line in million tons, accounting for 93 percent of the regional late 2005.

total. U.S. consumption is projected to rise to 1,505 mil- In 2004, coal-fired generation accounted for 17 percent of lion tons in 2025. The United States has substantial coal Ontarios electricity supply, down from 23 percent in reserves and has come to rely heavily on coal for electric- 2003, and its share could decline further in the future ity generation, a trend that continues in the forecast. [12]. The Ontario government currently plans to shut Coals share of total U.S. electricity generation is pro- down all of the Provinces 7,560 megawatts of coal-fired jected to decline slightly from 52 percent in 2002 to 51 generating capacity by early 2009, although the govern-percent in 2015 and then return to 53 percent in 2025 [10]. ment has indicated that the shutdowns will not occur unless generation from alternative sources can be Figure 53. World Coal Consumption by Region, secured [13]. The decision is based primarily on the 1980, 2002, 2015, and 2025 premise that the adverse health and environmental Billion Short Tons impacts of the plants operation are unacceptable. In 5 western Canada, increasing demand for electricity is 1980 2002 2015 2025 expected to result in the need for additional coal-fired 4 generating capacity, primarily in Alberta.

Mexico consumed 14 million tons of coal in 2002. In 2025 3

it is projected to consume 25 million tons. Two coal-fired generating plants, Rio Escondido (1,200 megawatts) and 2

Carbon II (1,400 megawatts), operated by the state-owned utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE),

1 consume approximately 10 million tons of coal annually, most of which comes from domestic mines [14]. In addi-0 tion, CFE has recently switched its six-unit, 2,100-Mature Market Transitional China and Other megawatt Petacalco plant, located on the Pacific coast, Economies Economies India Emerging from oil to coal. Petacalcos estimated annual coal con-Economies sumption is 6 million tons of imported coal, although Sources: 1980 and 2002: Energy Information Administration CFE has maintained the option to generate with fuel oil.

(EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219 (2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe. The utility plans to add an additional 700 megawatts of gov/iea/. 2015 and 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of coal-fired capacity at the Petacalco plant late in the Global Energy Markets (2005). decade [15].

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 51

Western Europe together, is projected to increase by 47 million tons (29 In Western Europe, environmental concerns play an percent), from 162 million tons in 2002 to 209 million important role in the competition among coal, natural tons in 2025. The most recent energy forecast released by gas, and nuclear power. Recently, other fuelsparticu- the Australian government (August 2004) indicates that larly, natural gashave been gaining relative to coal in coal consumption in Australia will increase by 1.5 per-the generation market. Coal consumption in Western cent per year on a Btu basis from 2002 to 2020, which is Europe has fallen by 36 percent since 1990, from 894 mil- slightly higher than the projected rate of 1.4 percent for lion tons to 573 million tons in 2002. The decline was Australia/New Zealand over the same period in the smaller on a Btu basis, at 30 percent, reflecting the fact IEO2005 reference case [18].

that much of it resulted from reduced consumption of Japan, which is the seventh largest coal user globally low-Btu lignite in Germany.

(following China, India, the United States, Russia, Ger-Over the forecast period, coal consumption in Western many, and South Africa), imports nearly all the coal it Europe is projected to fall by an additional 20 percent consumes, much of it originating from Australia [19].

(on a tonnage basis), reflecting a slower rate of decline Currently, about 44 percent of the coal consumed in than during the previous decade. Factors contributing to Japan is used by the countrys steel industry (Japan is the further cutbacks in coal consumption include continued worlds second largest producer of both crude steel and penetration of natural gas for electricity generation, pig iron, behind China) [20]. Coal is also used heavily in growing use of renewable fuels in the region, continuing the Japanese power sector, and coal-fired plants gener-pressure on member countries of the European Union to ated 27 percent of the countrys electricity supply in 2002 reduce subsidies that support domestic production of [21]. During the years 2001 through 2004, 8,700 mega-hard coal,8 and relatively slow growth in overall energy watts of new coal-fired generating capacity was brought consumption (0.5 percent per year). Despite a consider- on line in Japan [22]. Additional coal-fired generating able drop in lignite consumption since 1990, this capacity originally scheduled to come on line between low-rank fuel continues to be an important component the end of 2004 and the end of 2008 has been postponed of the Western European coal market. In 2002, lignite to later dates [23]. In the IEO2005 forecast, increased use accounted for 50 percent of the regions total coal con- of other fuels for electricity generation (including sumption on a tonnage basis and 29 percent on a Btu natural gas, renewables, and nuclear), coupled with an basis [16]. outlook for slow economic growth and a decline in pop-ulation, results in a relatively flat outlook for Japanese Coal consumption in Western Europes electric power coal consumption.

sector is projected to decline from 6.4 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 5.4 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and 4.8 quadrillion Transitional Economies Btu in 2025. Germany is currently the leading coal- Coal consumption in the transitional economies of East-consuming country in Western Europe, a position it is ern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) is expected to maintain over the forecast period. Much of projected to rise over the forecast horizon from 771 mil-the planned and recently completed work on coal-fired lion tons in 2002 to 850 million tons in 2015 and 874 mil-generating capacity in Western Europe is related to lion tons in 2025. In the EE/FSU countries, the process of either the replacement or refurbishment of existing economic reform and the transition to market-oriented capacity. Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece all economies from centrally planned economic systems are planning major projects to upgrade existing coal- continue to advance. The dislocations associated with fired generating facilities over the next two decades. institutional changes in the region have contributed sub-stantially to declines in both production and consump-Mature Market Asia tion of coal. In 2002, coal consumption in the EE/FSU Mature market Asia consists of Australia, New Zealand, region was 44 percent lower (on a tonnage basis) than in and Japan. Australia is the worlds leading coal exporter, 1990. In the IEO2005 reference case, coals share of total and Japan is the worlds leading coal importer. In 2002, EE/FSU energy consumption is projected to decline Australian coal producers shipped 225 million tons of from 22 percent in 2002 to 17 percent in 2025 (Figure 54).

coal to international consumers and consumed another During this same period, natural gas share of total 160 million tons (both hard coal and lignite) domesti- energy consumption is projected to increase from 45 per-cally, primarily for electricity generation. Coal-fired cent to 51 percent.

power plants accounted for 78 percent of Australias total electricity generation in 2002, a level that is pro- Substantial declines in economic output and energy jected to be maintained over the forecast horizon [17]. demand following the breakup of the Soviet Union in Overall coal use for Australia and New Zealand, taken 1991 led to considerable declines in both overall energy 8 Internationally, the term hard coal is used to describe anthracite and bituminous coal. In data published by the International Energy Agency, coal of subbituminous rank is classified as hard coal for some countries and as brown coal (with lignite) for others.

52 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

consumption and coal consumption in the FSU. In 2002, In Eastern Europe, coal consumption is projected to total energy consumption in the FSU was 18.5 quadril- increase slightly over the forecast period, from 374 mil-lion Btu, or 30 percent, below the level in 1990, and coal lion tons in 2002 to 394 million tons in 2025. Poland is the consumption was down by 6.0 quadrillion Btu, or 45 regions largest producer and consumer of coal and the percent. Reversing recent historical trends, coal con- second largest coal producer and consumer in all of sumption in Russia and the other FSU countries is pro- Europe, outranked only by Germany [26]. In 2002, coal jected to increase over the forecast period. Russias coal consumption in Poland totaled 149 million tons40 per-consumption is projected to increase by 59 million tons cent of Eastern Europes total coal consumption for the (26 percent) from 2002 to 2025, and consumption in other year. The most recent (January 2005) long-term energy FSU countries is projected to rise by 24 million tons (15 policy put forth by the Polish government indicates that percent). coal-fired generation should remain relatively constant, with new natural-gas-fired capacity used to meet future Of the 15 FSU countries, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakh- demand in the electricity sector [27]. Additional plans stan together account for virtually all the coal consump- for both new coal-fired capacity and the refurbishment tion and production in the region, and this is expected to of existing capacity in other Eastern European countries, remain the case in the future [24]. The IEO2005 outlook including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, the Czech for Russias coal consumption is generally consistent Republic, Macedonia, Slovakia, and Yugoslavia, is a with the long-term energy policy set forth in the August strong indicator that coal will continue to be an impor-2003 document, Russias Energy Strategy for the Period up tant source of energy in the region [28].

to 2020 [25]. Although Russias long-term energy strat-egy favors a considerable amount of new nuclear gener- Emerging Asia ating capacity, fossil-fuel-fired plants are expected to Coal consumption in the emerging economies of Asia is continue in their role as the primary source for electric projected to more than double in the IEO2005 reference power generation through 2020. For new fossil-fired case forecast, increasing from 2,118 million tons in 2002 generating capacity, Russias energy strategy promotes to 3,715 million tons in 2015 and 4,435 million tons in the construction of advanced coal-fired generating 2025. The projected increase of 2,317 million tons from capacity in the coal-rich Siberian region (central Russia) 2002 to 2025 represents 78 percent of the increase in and recommends a focus on efficient natural-gas-fired worldwide coal consumption over the period. With sub-capacity for the western and far eastern areas of the stantial growth in coal consumption in China (1,819 mil-country. Coal consumption in other FSU countries is lion tons) and India (315 million tons) over the forecast projected to increase slightly, primarily as the result of period, emerging Asias share of total world coal con-increased utilization of existing coal-fired generating sumption is projected to rise from 40 percent in 2002 to capacity in Kazakhstan and Ukraine. 51 percent in 2015 and 54 percent in 2025.

Despite the tremendous increases in coal consumption projected for emerging Asia, coals share of total energy Figure 54. Coal Share of Total Energy consumption in the region is still projected to decline Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 slightly, from 47 percent in 2002 to 44 percent in 2025.

Percent Much of the decline in coals share is attributed to 100 History Projections fast-paced growth projected for natural gas use in the China region.

80 and India As very large countries (in terms of both population and landmass) with large domestic coal resources, China 60 Mature Market and India account for 71 percent of the total increase in Economies coal use worldwide (on a Btu basis) over the forecast 40 Transitional period; however, coals share of energy use in China and Economies India, and in emerging Asia as a whole, still is projected to decline. The large increases in coal consumption pro-20 jected for China and India are based on an outlook for Other Emerging Economies strong economic growth (averaging 6.2 percent per year 0 in China and 5.5 percent per year in India from 2002 to 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 2025) and the expectation that much of the increased Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), demand for energy will be met by coal, particularly in International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) the industrial and electricity sectors.

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global In Chinas electricity sector, coal use is projected to grow Energy Markets (2005). by 3.3 percent a year, from 14.8 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 53

31.2 quadrillion Btu in 2025 (Figure 55). In comparison, Region, is being built by the Shenhua Coal Liquefaction coal consumption by electricity generators in the United Corporation. Following the completion of a second pro-States is projected to rise by 1.6 percent annually, from duction phase at the same site in 2010, the facility will be 19.8 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 28.6 quadrillion Btu in capable of converting approximately 17 million tons of 2025. One of the key implications of the substantial rise coal to 37 million barrels of petroleum products annu-in coal use for electricity generation in China is that large ally (approximately 100,000 barrels per day) [31]. The financial investments in new coal-fired power plants Shenhua Coal Liquefaction Corporation plans to expand and in the associated transmission and distribution sys- production of coal-based synthetic liquids to about 220 tems will be needed. The projected growth in electricity million barrels per year (approximately 600,000 barrels sector coal demand for China would result in the need per day) in 2020, requiring an estimated 80 to100 million for 229,000 megawatts of additional coal-fired capacity tons of coal per year as an input [32].

(net of retirements) by 2025 [29]. At the end of 2002, China had an estimated 204,000 megawatts of coal-fired In India, slightly less than 60 percent of the projected generating capacity. growth in coal consumption is attributable to increased demand for coal in the electricity sector, and the indus-In 2002, 47 percent of Chinas coal use was in the non- trial sector accounts for most of the remaining increase.

electricity sectors, primarily in the industrial sector. In 2002, electricity generation accounted for 67 percent Over the forecast period, coal demand in Chinas of Indias total coal use. The use of coal for electricity non-electricity sectors is expected to increase by 19.4 generation in India is projected to rise by 2.2 percent per quadrillion Btu (148 percent), raising the non-electricity year, from 5.1 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 8.5 quadrillion share of total coal demand to 51 percent in 2025. Coal Btu in 2025, requiring an additional 59,000 megawatts of remains the primary source of energy in Chinas indus- coal-fired capacity (net of retirements) [33]. At the end of trial sector, primarily because China has limited 2002, India had an estimated 66,000 megawatts of coal-reserves of oil and natural gas. In 2002, China was the fired generating capacity. Currently, the government is worlds leading producer of both steel and pig iron [30]. targeting the construction of approximately 40,000 megawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity for the With a substantial portion of the increase in Chinas country over the 10-year period ending March 2012 [34].

demand for both oil and natural gas projected to be met by imports, the Chinese government is actively promot- In the other areas of emerging Asia, a considerably ing the development of a large coal-to-liquids industry. smaller rise in coal consumption is projected over the Initial production of coal-based synthetic liquids in forecast period, based on expectations for growth in China is scheduled to commence in mid-2007 with the coal-fired electricity generation in South Korea, Taiwan, completion of the countrys first coal-to-liquids plant. and the member countries of the Association of South-The plant, located in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous east Asian Nations (primarily Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam). In the electricity sector, coal use in the other emerging countries of Asia Figure 55. Coal Consumption in China by Sector, (including South Korea) is projected to increase by 2.6 2002, 2015, and 2025 percent per year, from 2.9 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 5.2 Quadrillion Btu quadrillion Btu in 2025.

80 2002 2015 2025 The key motivation for increasing use of coal in 64 other emerging Asia is to maintain a diversity of fuel 60 supply for electricity generation. This objective is shared 53 even in countries that have abundant reserves of natural gas, such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Phil-40 ippines. In the IEO2005 forecast, coals share of fuel con-31 31 sumption for electricity generation in the region 27 28 24 (including South Korea) is projected to increase from 27 20 percent in 2002 to 30 percent in 2015, then decline to 26 15 11 percent in 2025 as consumption of natural gas for elec-tricity generation increases.

2 2 2 0 Middle East Electricity Industrial Other Sectors Total Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Adminis- In 2002, Middle Eastern countries consumed 84 million tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA- tons of coal, with Turkey accounting for more than 86 0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia. percent of the total. Most of the coal consumed in Turkey doe.gov/iea/. 2015 and 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of is locally produced, low-Btu lignite [35]. Israel accounts Global Energy Markets (2005). for most of the regions remaining coal consumption.

54 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Over the forecast period, coal consumption in the Mid- produced in the region. Over the forecast period, a com-dle East is projected to increase by 32 million tons. bination of fuelsnatural gas, oil, and renewable energy (including hydropower and other renewables)is Much of the increased use of coal projected for the Mid-expected to fuel most of the regions projected increase dle East is for electricity generation. In Turkey, the com-in electricity generation. In the IEO2005 reference case, pletion of two new coal-fired power plants in 2003 and coal is projected to maintain a 4-percent share of Central 2005 is projected to add an additional 23 million tons to and South Americas total primary energy consumption.

the countrys annual coal consumption. The projects consist of a 1,300-megawatt hard-coal-fired plant being Brazil, with the worlds eighth largest steel industry in built on the southern coast of Turkey near Iskenderun, to 2002, accounted for more than 62 percent of the regions be fueled by imported coal, and a 1,440-megawatt lig- coal demand (on a tonnage basis); Colombia, Chile, nite-fired plant (Afsin-Elbistan B plant) being built in the Argentina, Peru, and Venezuela accounted for much of lignite-rich Afsin-Elbistan region in southern Turkey the remainder [42]. In the forecast, Brazil accounts for

[36]. Because of the extremely low heat content of the most of the growth in coal consumption projected for the indigenous lignite feedstock for the Afsin-Elbistan B region, with increased use of coal expected for both plantapproximately 4.0 million Btu per tonannual steelmaking and electricity production. Brazils steel fuel requirements are estimated to be 19 million tons companies currently plan to expand production capac-

[37]. In Israel, state-owned Israel Electric Corporation ity by a substantial amount over the next few years to plans to bring an additional 1,100 megawatts of coal- meet increasing domestic and international demand for fired generating capacity on line at Ashkelon in 2012, steel [43]. Brazils three southernmost States, Rio Grande near the site of its 2,250-megawatt Rutenberg coal plant do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Parana, which contain most

[38]. of the countrys coal reserves, are actively promoting the construction of several new coal-fired power plants [44].

Africa The new coal projects being promoted by the govern-Africas coal consumption is projected to increase by 81 ment of Rio Grande do Sul represent a key component of million tons between 2002 and 2025, primarily to meet its plan to become self-sufficient in electricity supply.

demand for electricity, which is projected to increase at a rate of 3.7 percent per year. South Africa currently Trade accounts for 92 percent of the coal consumed in the con-tinent and is expected to continue to account for much of Overview the increase in Africas total coal consumption over the Compared with world coal consumption, the amount of forecast period. Additional growth in coal consumption coal traded in international markets is relatively small.

is likely to occur in some of the other countries of south- In 2003, world imports of coal amounted to 714 million ern Africa that also are well endowed with indigenous tons (Figure 56 and Table 9), representing 13 percent of coal resources. total world consumption. In 2025, coal imports world-wide are projected to total 969 million tons, or 12 percent In South Africa, increasing demand for electricity in of world coal consumption.

recent years has led to the decision by Eskom, the coun-trys state-owned electricity supplier, to restart three The world coal market consists of essentially two dis-large coal-fired plants (Camden, Grootvlei, and Komati) tinct marketsa steam coal market and a coking coal that have been closed for more than a decade [39]. The market. The international steam coal market consists first of the three plants is to scheduled to come back on largely of (1) demand for coal for electricity generation, line in 2005, and the remaining plants are scheduled for (2) demand for coal to produce steam and direct heat for restart in 2008. The plants have a combined generating industrial applications, and (3) demand for coal to be capacity of 3,800 megawatts [40]. Projections of power used in blast furnaces for steelmaking. The international shortages for southern Africa in the latter half of this market for coking coal consists solely of demand for coal decade have led to increased interest in new coal-fired coke as a fuel and reducing agent for smelting iron ore in power projects not only in South Africa but also in Zim- blast furnaces.

babwe, Tanzania, Swaziland, and Botswana [41].

Growth in international coal trade in recent years has Central and South America resulted primarily from increased demand for steam Historically, coal has not been a major source of energy coal for electricity generation, particularly in Asia. In in Central and South America. In 2002, coal accounted contrast, the world market for coking coal has been rela-for about 4 percent of the regions total energy consump- tively stable, as Asian steel producers have increased tion, and in past years its share has never exceeded 5 per- their imports and Europe and the Americas have cent. In the electricity sector, hydroelectric power has decreased imports. Most recently, increased imports of met much of the regions electricity demand, and new coking coal by China in 2003 and 2004 have contributed power plants are now being built to use natural gas to the upward trend for coking coal imports to Asia.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 55

Two factors that have contributed to the relatively flat than 8,000 megawatts of new coal-fired generating trend in world coking coal imports are continuing capacity [47].

increases in steel production from electric arc furnaces (which do not use coal coke as an input), primarily in China and India, which import relatively small quanti-Europe and North America; and technological improve- ties of coal at present, are expected to account for much ments at blast furnaces, including greater use of pulver- of the remaining increase in coal imports projected for ized coal injection and higher average injection rates per Asia. From 2003 to 2025, coal imports by China and ton of hot metal produced [45]. India, taken together, are projected to increase by 109 million tons. Increased imports of coking coal account In the IEO2005 forecast, world steam coal trade is pro- for approximately half of the overall increase in coal jected to increase by 1.5 percent per year, from 504 mil- imports projected for China and India, which is unlike lion tons in 2003 to 693 million tons in 2025. Increased the outlook for other Asian countries, where fuel exports to Asia, primarily to fuel new coal-fired generat- requirements for new coal-fired power plants are the ing capacity, account for most of the projected expansion key source of coal demand. Imports by China and India in the world steam coal market. World coking coal trade have the potential to be even higher than projected, but is projected to increase by 1.3 percent per year, from 210 it is assumed in the forecast that domestic coal will be million tons in 2003 to 276 million tons in 2025. Increased given first priority in meeting the large projected imports of coking coal are projected for China, South increase (2.1 billion tons) in coal consumption in the two Korea, Taiwan, India, and Brazil, where expansions in countries.

blast-furnace-based steel production are expected.

Elsewhere in Asia, recent and planned additions of coal-fired capacity have increased and will continue to Asia add to coal import demand in the region. In both Malay-Based primarily on strong growth in electricity demand, sia and Taiwan, coal imports are projected to rise sub-Asias demand for imported coal remains poised for stantially over the forecast period to fuel new coal-fired additional increases over the forecast period (Figure 57). power plants. Diversification of fuel supply for electric-In the IEO2005 forecast, South Korea, Taiwan, India, ity generation is the key factor underlying Malaysias China, and Malaysia are projected to account for most of plans for additional coal-fired generating capacity [48].

the projected growth in coal imports to Asia. Taiwan Power cites cost advantages over natural-gas-and oil-fired plants as the key factor underlying its plans Although Japans share of total world coal trade has for new coal plants [49]. In Thailand, the 1,434-megawatt been declining, it continues to be the worlds leading importer of coal and is projected to account for 19 per-cent of total world imports in 2025, less than its 2003 Figure 56. World Coal Trade, 1985, 2003, 2015, share of 25 percent [46]. In 2003, Japan relied almost and 2025 entirely on imported coal for domestic consumption, Million Short Tons 1,000 purchasing 182 million tons of coal from foreign suppli- 1985 2003 2015 2025 ers. In IEO2005, expectations of slow economic growth (1.7 percent per year from 2002 to 2025) and a shift to a 800 less energy-intensive economy lead to relatively small changes in Japans total energy consumption (average 600 annual growth of 0.5 percent) and virtually no change in coal consumption. As a result, Japans coal imports are projected to remain near the 2003 level throughout the 400 forecast. Japans share of total Asian coal imports, which declined from 85 percent in 1980 to 46 percent in 2003 200 primarily as a result of increases in coal imports by South Korea, Taiwan, and India, is projected to continue falling to 29 percent in 2025. 0 Coking Steam Total South Korea, currently the second leading importer of Sources: 1985: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

coal worldwide, is expected to maintain that position Annual Prospects for World Coal Trade 1987, DOE/EIA-over the forecast period. Coal imports to South Korea 0363(87) (Washington, DC, May 1987). 2003: SSY Consul-tancy and Research, Ltd., SSY's Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 14, are projected to increase from 77 million tons in 2003 to No. 2 (London, UK, May 2005); and Energy Information Admin-143 million tons in 2025. As a result, South Koreas share istration, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2003, of Asian coal imports is projected to rise from 19 percent DOE/EIA-0121(2003/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2004).

in 2003 to 22 percent in 2025. From 2004 through 2010, 2015 and 2025: Energy Information Administration, National South Korean electricity generators plan to add more Energy Modeling System run IEO2005.D060605B.

56 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Table 9. World Coal Flows by Importing and Exporting Regions, Reference Case, 2003, 2015, and 2025 (Million Short Tons)

Importers Steam Coking Total Exporters Europea Asia Americas Totalb Europea Asiac Americas Totalb Europea Asia Americas Totalb 2003 Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 96.1 6.8 115.8 29.0 85.1 8.1 122.3 41.5 181.3 14.9 238.1 United States. . . . . . . . 3.0 0.2 18.5 21.8 14.0 0.0 7.2 21.2 17.0 0.3 25.7 43.0 South Africa. . . . . . . . . 70.2 5.5 0.4 77.2 1.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 71.2 5.5 1.0 78.7 Former Soviet Union . . 24.2 9.5 0.0 33.8 2.7 4.5 0.0 7.2 26.9 14.0 0.0 41.0 Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 0.0 0.0 15.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 16.4 0.0 0.0 16.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.9 0.7 1.5 8.1 13.9 4.1 26.2 8.1 14.7 4.7 27.7 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 81.2 1.1 89.0 0.1 12.6 1.8 14.4 6.3 93.8 2.8 103.4 South Americad . . . . . . 32.5 0.0 25.2 57.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.5 0.0 25.2 57.8 Indonesiae . ......... 16.9 70.6 2.9 91.8 0.1 15.8 0.1 16.0 17.0 86.4 3.0 107.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180.7 263.9 55.6 503.7 56.3 131.9 21.8 210.1 237.0 395.9 77.4 713.9 2015 Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 137.3 0.8 140.7 28.6 121.9 11.9 162.4 31.1 259.2 12.7 303.1 United States. . . . . . . . 5.9 1.1 4.0 11.0 8.9 0.8 6.5 16.2 14.7 1.8 10.5 27.1 South Africa. . . . . . . . . 56.0 28.8 4.0 88.7 0.9 0.0 0.8 1.7 56.8 28.8 4.8 90.4 Former Soviet Union . . 41.5 23.6 0.0 65.1 3.1 9.4 0.0 12.5 44.6 33.0 0.0 77.5 Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 0.0 0.5 6.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 7.3 0.0 0.5 7.8 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 8.6 15.3 12.7 36.6 10.2 15.3 12.7 38.1 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 90.4 0.0 90.4 0.0 6.8 0.0 6.8 0.0 97.2 0.0 97.2 South Americad . . . . . . 53.8 0.0 47.4 101.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.8 0.0 47.4 101.2 Indonesiae . . . . . . . . . . 13.3 108.3 4.5 126.1 0.0 14.3 0.0 14.3 13.3 122.7 4.5 140.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180.7 389.5 61.3 631.5 51.1 168.4 31.9 251.5 231.8 558.0 93.2 883.0 2025 Australia . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 164.7 0.8 165.5 29.4 141.1 15.1 185.6 29.4 305.8 15.9 351.2 United States. . . . . . . . 0.0 1.0 4.1 5.1 6.9 0.0 7.7 14.6 6.9 1.0 11.8 19.7 South Africa. . . . . . . . . 48.0 40.1 4.2 92.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 1.1 48.2 40.1 5.1 93.4 Former Soviet Union . . 42.0 26.5 0.0 68.5 4.2 9.9 0.0 14.1 46.2 36.4 0.0 82.6 Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 18.5 10.8 38.8 9.5 18.5 10.8 38.8 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 93.7 0.0 93.7 0.0 7.4 0.0 7.4 0.0 101.1 0.0 101.1 South Americad . . . . . . 69.4 0.0 56.6 126.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.4 0.0 56.6 126.0 Indonesiae . ......... 6.3 124.8 6.3 137.3 0.0 14.3 0.0 14.3 6.3 139.1 6.3 151.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170.1 450.7 72.0 692.8 50.8 191.2 34.4 276.5 220.9 641.9 106.5 969.2 aCoal flows to Europe include shipments to the Middle East and Africa. In 2003, coal imports to the Middle East and Africa totaled 40.2 mil-lion tons.

bIn 2003, total world coal flows include a balancing item used to reconcile discrepancies between reported exports and imports. The 2003 balancing items by coal type were 3.5 million tons (steam coal), 0.1 million tons (coking coal), and 3.6 million tons (total).

cIncludes 14.3 million tons of coal for pulverized coal injection at blast furnaces shipped to Japanese steelmakers in 2003.

dCoal exports from South America are projected to originate from mines in Colombia and Venezuela.

eIn 2003, coal exports from Indonesia include shipments from other countries not modeled for the forecast period. The 2003 non-Indonesian exports by coal type were 8.4 million tons (steam coal), 1.7 million tons (coking coal), and 10.0 million tons (total).

Notes: Data exclude non-seaborne shipments of coal to Europe and Asia. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The sum of the columns may not equal the total, because the total includes a balancing item between importers and exporters data.

Sources: 2003: SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd., SSY's Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 14, No. 2 (London, UK, May 2005); and Energy Information Administration, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2003, DOE/EIA-0121(2003/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2004).

2015 and 2025: Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run IEO2005.D060605B.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 57

Map Ta Phut plant is scheduled to be fully operational in reduce the reliance on steam coal for electricity early 2007 [50]. generation, and further improvements in the steelmaking process are expected to continue to reduce During the 1980s, Australia became the leading coal the amount of coal required for steel production. Strict exporter in the world, primarily by meeting increased environmental standards are expected to result in the demand for steam coal in Asia. Exports of Australian closure of some of Western Europes older coke plants coking coal also increased, as countries such as Japan and to make it difficult to get approvals for plants, thus began using some of Australias semi-soft or weak cok-increasing import requirements for coal coke but reduc-ing coals9 in their coke oven blends. As a result, imports ing imports of coking coal. Projected reductions in of hard coking coals from other countries, including the domestic coal production in the United Kingdom, Ger-United States, were displaced. Australias share of total many, Spain, and France are not expected to be replaced world coal trade, which increased from 17 percent in by equivalent volumes of coal imports. Rather, 1980 [51] to 33 percent in 2003, is projected to remain rel-increased use of natural gas and renewable energy is atively steady over the forecast period, accounting for 36 expected to replace much of the reduction in domestic percent of total trade in 2025. Australia is expected to energy supply projected to result from continuing continue as the major exporter to Asia, with its share of declines in the regions indigenous coal production.

the regions total coal import demand projected to increase from 46 percent in 2003 to 48 percent in 2025 In 2003, the leading suppliers of imported coal to the (Table 9). countries of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa were Two other major suppliers of coal to Asian markets are South Africa (30 percent), Australia (18 percent), South China and Indonesia. In 2003, China exported 94 million America (14 percent), and the former Soviet Union (11 tons of coal to other Asian countries, representing 24 percent). Over the forecast period, low-cost coal from percent of total Asian coal imports, and Indonesian pro- South America (primarily from Colombia and Vene-ducers exported 78 million tons to Asia, or 20 percent of zuela) is projected to meet an increasing share of Euro-the regions total imports for the year. Over the forecast pean coal import demand, displacing some coal from period, increasing domestic demand for coal in both such higher cost suppliers as the United States and China and Indonesia is projected to limit growth in their Poland.

coal exports.

The United States, once a major supplier of coal to Asia, Figure 57. Coal Imports by Major Importing is currently only a minor participant in the Asian mar- Region, 1995-2025 ket. The U.S. share of Asias coal imports declined from Million Short Tons 1,000 28 percent in 1980 to less than 0.1 percent in 2003 [52]. In History Projections 2004, however, limited supplies of coking coal in the international market and a weaker U.S. dollar led to 800 Total renewed interest in Appalachian coking coal. U.S. cok-ing coal exports to Asia, which declined from a peak of 600 more than 24 million tons in 1982 to virtually nothing in 2002 and 2003, were more than 5 million tons in 2004 Asia

[53]. U.S. steam coal exports to Asia increased from 0.2 400 million tons in 2003 to 2.3 million tons in 2004.

Europe, Middle East, and Africa 200 Europe, Middle East, and Africa Coal imports to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, Americas taken as a whole, are projected to increase from 237 mil- 0 1995 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 lion tons in 2003 to 239 million tons in 2010 and then decline to 221 million tons in 2025 (Figure 57 and Table Sources: History: SSY Consultancy and Research, Ltd.,

SSY's Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 14, No. 2 (London, UK, May 9). In the IEO2005 forecast, projected declines in overall 2005); International Energy Agency, Coal Information 2001 imports to the countries of Western Europe are partly (Paris, France, September 2001), and previous issues; and offset by increases projected for Turkey, Romania, Bul- Energy Information Administration, Quarterly Coal Report, garia, and Israel. October-December 2003, DOE/EIA-0121(2003/4Q) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), and previous issues. Projections:

In Western Europe, environmental pressures and com- Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling petition from natural gas are expected gradually to System run IEO2005.D060605B.

9 Semi-soft or weak coking coal is blended with hard coking coal before being charged into the coke oven to produce coke. Semi-soft coal needs to be blended because, used alone, it does not produce coke with sufficient strength. Coal coke is used primarily to smelt iron ore in blast furnaces, acting as a source of heat and as a chemical reducing agent for the production of pig iron.

58 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Recent Developments in World Coal Trade The years 2003 and 2004 saw two solid back-to-back steam coal out of South Africa, mostly due to increases in international coal shipments. In 2003, rail-related shipping delays; and (3) reduced exports world coal trade rose to 714 million tons, an increase of and increased imports of coking coal by China. Rela-9 percent from 2002. Preliminary data for 2004 indicate tive to 2003, China imported an additional 4 million that world coal trade reached approximately 760 mil- tons of coking coal in 2004 and exported 8 million tons lion tons, for an additional increase of 6 percent over less. Other factors affecting coal export prices in 2003 2003.a Gains in coal shipments to each of the three and 2004 were the effects of higher freight rates on major coal import demand regions discussed in international coal markets, increasing concentration in this chapter contributed to the 100-million-ton-plus the ownership of coal export supply, and increasing increase in world coal trade for the 2-year period. importance of coal-on-gas competition in international power supply.e In addition to the substantial increases in international coal trade in 2003 and 2004, other notable develop- Taken together, higher freight rates and coal export ments for the period were sharp upward movements in prices led to considerably higher prices for imports of both ocean freight rates and coal export prices. During steam and coking coal. Quarterly data on average 2003, ocean freight rates for coal rose to near all-time steam coal prices, published by the International record highs. Much of the increase was attributable to Energy Agency, indicate that the average price of coal substantial growth in imports of iron ore by Chinese imported to the European Union in the fourth quarter steel producers, which in turn created a shortage of of 2004 (nominal dollars per ton) was up by 92 percent ocean vessels for transporting other dry bulk products, from the fourth quarter of 2002,f and the average price including coal.b China imported 163 million tons of of steam coal imported to Japan was up by 67 percent.

iron ore in 2003, an increase of 33 percent from 2002.c For coking coal, the prices of imported coal to the Euro-According to Global Insight, Inc., substantial amounts pean Union and Japan in the fourth quarter of 2004 of new shipping capacity projected to come on line by were 60 and 54 percent higher, respectively, than in the the end of 2007 should help to alleviate the current fourth quarter of 2002. In late 2004, annual negotiations capacity shortage, which in turn should lead to some between Japanese steel mills and Australian coking reductions in freight rates.d Global Insight estimates coal producers established a new benchmark price for that between the beginning of 2004 and the end of 2007 Japans current fiscal year (ending on March 31, 2006) annual dry-bulk-shipping capacity will expand by at $113.40 per ton free-on-board (f.o.b.) port of exit, approximately 550 million tons, while demand for which was more than double the benchmark price of annual dry-bulk-shipping will increase by only 309 $51.70 per ton for the previous year.g million tons.

To date, higher coal prices do not appear to have had a While freight rates for coal retreated some from the his- significant effect on the demand for coal in interna-toric highs reached in early 2004, coal export prices tional markets. In the electric power sector, the price of (both steam and coking) began increasing in late 2003 natural gas, coals key competitor in this sector, has and continued to rise throughout 2004. Limited supply also been high. In the industrial sector, steel producers of export coal is the primary explanation given for the have seen increasing profits despite higher prices for substantial rise in coal export prices. Some of the fac- coking coal and iron ore, as strong worldwide demand tors that restrained export supply during the year for steel has led to considerably higher prices for their included (1) substantial shipping delays at Australian products. As indicated, coal freight rates are expected coal ports, as expansions in port infrastructure have to retreat some from recent high levels as new shipping not kept pace with the recent surge in Chinas demand capacity comes on line over the next few years. In turn, for iron ore and coking coal; (2) reduced exports of (continued on page 60) aSSY Consultancy and Research Ltd., SSYs Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 14, No. 2 (May 2005); and Energy Information Administration, Quarterly Coal Report, October-December 2004, DOE/EIA-0121(2004/4Q) (Washington, DC, March 2005), Tables 10, 12, and 14.

bOcean Freight Rates Continue To Soar, Little Relief in Sight, Coal Americas, Energy Publishing LLC, No. 29 (November 3, 2003), p. 1.

cSteel/Iron Ore: Iron Ore Exports, Iron Ore Imports and Steel Production, Monthly Shipping Review SSY (April 21, 2005), p. 7.

dGlobal Insight, Inc., Global Coal Trade and Price Report (2004) (Lexington, MA, December 2004), pp. xviii-xxii.

eWorsening Australian Coal Port Congestion, Monthly Shipping Review SSY (April 21, 2005), p. 4; and Supply Dynamics on the Move, Petroleum Economist (October 6, 2004).

fInternational Energy Agency, Databases for Energy Prices and Taxes, 2nd Quarter 2005, web site http://data.iea.org.

gT. Grant-Taylor, Coal Prices Steaming Ahead, The Courier Mail (February 7, 2005), p. 18; and S. Wyatt, Coup for Coking Coal Exports, Australian Financial Review (December 13, 2004), p. 17.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 59

Recent Developments in World Coal Trade (Continued) this should lead to some downward pressure on the coal exporting countries such as China, Colombia, and non-transportation component of the delivered price Indonesia have increased their output substantially of coal in markets such as Europe, where Australian over the past few years, several of the more established coal should again be able to compete with coal origi- coal-exporting countries such as the United States, nating from South Africa and South America. South Africa, Canada, and Poland have seen their exports remain relatively constant or decline. Between Along with strong growth in world coal trade in recent 1998 and 2003, coal exports from China expanded by a years, the geographical composition of coal supply for substantial 190 percent, from 36 million tons to 103 mil-international markets has changed. While emerging lion tons.h hSSY Consultancy and Research Ltd, SSYs Coal Trade Forecast, Vol. 14, No. 2 (May 2005).

Despite South Americas current foothold and expected New Brunswick account for most of Canadas remaining gains in Europe, South Africa is projected to maintain its import tonnage. In 2003, Nova Scotia imported 2.0 mil-position as the leading supplier of coal to Europe lion tons of coal and New Brunswick imported 1.4 mil-throughout much of the forecast period. Currently, lion tons. U.S. coal exports to Canada are projected to fall plans call for a 15-million-ton expansion of South from 21 million tons in 2003 to 7 million tons in 2025 [60].

Africas Richards Bay Coal Terminal by the end of 2007, increasing the facilitys annual throughput capacity to References 95 million tons [54].

1. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Interna-The Americas tional Energy Annual 1990, DOE/EIA-0219(90)

(Washington, DC, January 1992), Table 33; and EIA, Compared with European and Asian coal markets, International Energy Annual 2001, DOE/EIA-0219 imports of coal to North and South America are rela-(2001) (Washington, DC, March 2003), Table 8.2.

tively small, totaling 77 million tons in 2003 (Table 9).

Coal imports to the United States accounted for 32 per- 2. World Energy Council, 2004 Survey of Energy cent of the 2003 regional total, followed by Canada at 30 Sources, 20th Edition (London, UK, December 2004),

percent and Brazil at 20 percent [55]. Most of the imports pp. 22-23.

to Brazil were coking coal, and a majority of the remain- 3. Energy Information Administration, International ing import tonnage was steam coal used for pulverized Energy Annual 2002, web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea coal injection at steel mills [56]. (March-June 2004), Table 2.5.

4. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Over the IEO2005 forecast period, coal imports to the Energy Review, April 2005, DOE/EIA-0035(2005/04)

Americas are projected to increase by 29 million tons, (Washington, DC, April 27, 2005), Table A5; and with most of the additional tonnage going to the United EIA, Coal Market Module of the National Energy States and Brazil. Coal imports to the United States are Modeling System, Model Documentation 2005, DOE/

projected to increase from 25 million tons in 2003 to 46 EIA-M060(2005) (Washington, DC, April 2005),

million tons in 2025 [57]. This outlook is based on the

p. 64.

capability and plans of existing coal-fired generating plants to import coal (primarily plants located on the 5. International Energy Agency, Coal Information 2004 eastern seaboard and in the southeastern part of the (Paris, France, August 2004), p. II.16.

country) and announced plans to expand coal import 6. Sindh Coal Authority (Government of Sindh),

infrastructure [58]. In Brazil, the countrys expanding Harnessing of Coal Resources of Sindh Province, steel industry is projected to require increasing quanti- presentation at the Minerals Sector Development ties of imported coal. Workshop, Organized by Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources in Association with the Partially offsetting the projected growth in coal imports World Bank, Islamabad, Pakistan (December 15-16, elsewhere in the Americas, Canadian imports are 2003), web site http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/

expected to decline substantially over the next few years sar/sa.nsf/0/b871694dce23afc285256df800263f74?

as the Ontario government moves ahead with the shut- OpenDocument.

down of the Provinces five coal-fired generating plants.

7. World Energy Council, 2004 Survey of Energy Ontario imported 20 million tons of coal in 2003, primar-Sources, 20th Edition (London, UK, December 2004),

ily from U.S. coal mines in Central Appalachia and the pp. 24-25.

Powder River Basin [59]. After Ontario, Nova Scotia and 60 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

8. G. Couch, IEA Coal Research, The Potential for Coal 18. M. Akmal, S. Thorpe, A. Dickson, G. Burg and N.

Use in Pakistan, CCC/83 (London, UK, April 2004), Klijn, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and

p. 26; and RWE Power International, Thar Lignite Resource Economics (ABARE), Australian Energy, Project, Bankable Feasibility StudyResults, pre- National and State Projections to 2019/2020, eReport sentation at the Bankable Feasibility Study of Thar 04.11 (Canberra, Australia, August 2004), p. 23.

Coal Mining Workshop, Karachi, Pakistan (January 19. Energy Information Administration, International 2005). Energy Annual 2002, web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea

9. Pakistan Tenders Power Projects, Power in Asia (March-June 2004), Table 1.4.

(April 28, 2005), pp. 1-3; M. Ghumman, Chinese 20. Web site www.worldsteel.org; and International Firm Rejects Revised Tariff: Coal-Fired Power Pro- Energy Agency, Coal Information 2004 (Paris, France, jects in Doldrums, Business Recorder (April 8, 2005); August 2004), Tables 1.47 and 1.48.

and PPIB Accord Approval to AES: US Power

21. International Energy Agency, Coal Information 2004 Giant To Invest $1.5 Billion in Thar Project, 2003),

(Paris, France, August 2004), Table 1.43d.

Daily TimesSite Edition (April 16, 2005), web site www.dailytimes.com.pk. 22. IEA Coal Research, CoalPower5 Database (2005);

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., Completion

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Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 63

Electricity Electricity consumption nearly doubles in the IEO2005 projection period.

The emerging economies of Asia are expected to lead the increase in world electricity use.

The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) refer- Net Electricity Consumption ence case projects that world net electricity consumption will nearly double over the next two decades.10 Over the Growth in net electricity consumption is expected to be forecast period, world electricity demand is projected to most rapid among the emerging economies of the world, grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year, from with annual average growth of 4.0 percent from 2002 to 14,275 billion kilowatthours in 2002 to 21,400 billion 2025 (Figure 59). In contrast, electricity demand is pro-kilowatthours in 2015 and 26,018 billion kilowatthours jected to increase by an average of 1.5 percent per year in in 2025 (Figure 58). More than one-half (59 percent) of the mature market economies and an average of 3.1 per-the projected growth in demand occurs in the emerging cent per year in the transitional economies of Eastern economies, with the mature market and transitional Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU). On an economies accounting for 28 percent and 14 percent, absolute quantity basis, China and the United States respectively. lead the projected growth in net electricity consumption, adding 2,803 and 1,819 billion kilowatthours over the This chapter examines the future of electricity supply 23-year forecast to their respective annual net consump-and demand, beginning with a discussion of regional tion levels.

demand projections and the trends in expansion antici-pated over the next two decades. The remainder of the Mature Market Economies chapter discusses the projections for electricity generat- Electricity use in the mature market economies is ing capacity, with particular attention to how the expected to increase more slowly than in the emerging regional fuel mix might change over the forecast period. and transitional economies, averaging 1.5 percent per Regional differences in fuel diversity, operating efficien- year in the IEO2005 reference case over the projection cies, and ability to meet growing demand for electric period. In the mature market economies, the electricity power are reviewed.

Figure 58. World Net Electricity Consumption, Figure 59. World Net Electricity Consumption 2002-2025 by Region, 2002-2025 Billion Kilowatthours Billion Kilowatthours 30,000 16,000 History Projections History Projections 26,018 23,677 Mature Market Economies 25,000 21,400 12,000 Transitional Economies 20,000 18,875 Emerging Economies 15,000 14,275 8,000 10,000 4,000 5,000 0 0 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

10 In IEO2005, net electricity consumption includes both electricity and heat produced for sale to the grid. It does not include electricity generated on site at industrial facilities.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 65

sector is well established, and equipment efficiency Transitional Economies gains are expected to temper the growth in electricity Electricity demand among the EE/FSU transitional demand. economies is projected to increase at an average annual Although parts of the United States still have excess nat- rate of 3.1 percent over the 2002-2025 period. This is ural-gas-fired electricity capacity that was installed dur- higher than the 1.5-percent average annual increase over ing the boom in construction between 2000 and 2004, the past 30 years, mostly as a result of the precipitous strong economic growth throughout the country will drop in electricity use that followed the fall of the Soviet require the development of additional generation capac- regime in the early 1990s. Net electricity consumption in ity. Electricity demand in the United States is projected the EE/FSU region is projected to climb from 1,544 bil-to increase from 3,651 billion kilowatthours in 2002 to lion kilowatthours in 2002 to 3,145 billion kilowatthours 5,470 billion kilowatthours in 2025. Demand growth is in 2025.

expected to be particularly strong in the commercial sec- Many of the FSU countries are attempting to reform or tor, averaging 2.4 percent per year. Rapid additions to liberalize their electricity sectorsfor the most part, to commercial floorspace, the continuing penetration of attract much needed private and foreign investment to new telecommunications technologies and medical repair and expand aging and neglected infrastructure.

imaging equipment, and increased use of office equip- In Russia, for instance, little investment was made in the ment are projected to offset efficiency gains for electric 1990s to upgrade the countrys electricity system, and equipment in the sector. In the industrial and residential especially its transmission and distribution infrastruc-sectors electricity consumption is expected to grow at ture, which includes some operational transformers that more moderate rates, averaging 1.3 percent per year and date back to the 1930s [2]. A recent major electricity 1.6 percent per year, respectively. blackout in Moscow underscores the infrastructure problem. On May 25, 2005, between 2 and 4 million peo-Net electricity consumption in Western Europe is pro-ple were left without electricity for several hours follow-jected to increase in the IEO2005 reference case from ing an explosion at a Moscow substation that had been 2,556 billion kilowatthours in 2002 to 3,072 billion operating for more than 40 years.

kilowatthours in 2025. Electricity demand growth in the region will, in part, be influenced by the progress it Russias thermal generating capacity is scheduled for makes in liberalizing its electric power markets. Western privatization as part of the countrys electric power sec-Europes drive to reduce cross-border barriers through- tor restructuring plan, with nuclear power plants out the regional economy is expected to increase compe- remaining under state control and hydroelectric facili-tition in its electricity and natural gas markets, offsetting ties placed under the control of a single state-owned some of the increased costs that will result from reduced company [3]. The state-owned Unified Energy Systems reliance on coal-fired and nuclear power plants and utility has created 6 wholesale power generating compa-increased reliance on natural gas and renewables for nies and 14 territorial generating companies to be privat-electricity production. ized in 2005; however, the government has delayed the privatization until early 2006.

All electricity customers in the European Union (EU) will have the right to choose their suppliers by July 2007. Outside Russia, the progress toward electricity sector Furthermore, in 2004 new EU directives entered into reform has been mixed. Kazakhstan appears to be in the force, requiring energy companies to unbundle formerly most advanced stage of restructuring in the region.

vertically integrated supply chains and mandating the Restructuring of the power sector in Kazakhstan began establishment of uniform, well-defined regulatory bod- in 1995 with the unbundling of distribution, transmis-ies to increase information transparency, helping to sion, and generation functions [4], and by 1998, the gov-increase competition in the electricity sector and, as a ernment had privatized most of the countrys generating result, restrain price increases [1]. capacity, as well as a number of distribution companies, and was allowing direct electricity sales to large end In addition, populations in Western Europe and Japan users.

are expected either to remain at current levels or to decline slightly toward the end of the forecast period, Ukraines privatization effort began in 1997, and each of and as a result it is unlikely that demand for electricity in the countrys regional electricity distributors has been the residential sector will increase substantially. West- partially privatized [5]. Progress has been slow for a ern Europe and Japan are expected to have the slowest number of reasons, however. Only minor percentages growth in residential electricity consumption, averaging have been offered to investors, and investors are 0.4 and 0.6 percent per year, respectively, and in com- required to commit to substantial, long-term invest-mercial electricity consumption, averaging 0.8 and 0.9 ments in the electricity infrastructure. In addition, percent per year, respectively. Lithuania, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan have started 66 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

power sector liberalization, although their progress also however, even with commercial and industrial consum-has been slow. ers subsidizing poor consumers, regional electricity companies still are expected to pay for some of the subsi-In Eastern Europe, efforts to restructure and liberalize dies [8]. The burden of subsidies is amplified by inade-national electricity sectors have been driven by the quate revenue collection systems and outright theft of accession of several countries11 to the EU. EU member- electricity. For example, in 2002 Indias regional electric-ship has compelled many nations of the region to reform ity companies lost $5.3 billion [9].

electricity markets in order to meet EU standards. The Czech Republic plans to begin selling its 67.8-percent Indias new electricity policy also places considerable stake in the Ceske Energeticke Zavody generator some- emphasis on reliability. The policy requires that within time in 2006 to comply with EU rules on electricity sector six months the Central Electricity Authority must liberalization [6], and 10 of the 12 power producers in launch its first National Electricity Plan, covering the Hungary are owned by foreign companies. period to 2017. Central to the plans is the provision of adequate generation capacity by 2012 based on 85 per-Emerging Economies cent availability and including reserves of at least 5 per-Emerging economies are projected to more than double cent [10].

their net electricity consumption, from 4,645 billion In China, news reports over the past few years have kilowatthours in 2002 to 11,554 billion kilowatthours in highlighted electricity generation shortfalls during peri-2025. The projected growth in net electricity consump- ods of peak demand. To close the annual supply short-tion for the emerging market economies is driven in ages and meet further growth in demand, Chinas 11th large part by gross domestic product (GDP) and popula- five-year plan includes plans for expanding electricity tion growth assumptions (see box on page 69). GDP generation capacity to 570 gigawatts by 2010. In order to growth is in turn dependent on access to reliable electric- meet this rapid rate of expansion, roughly 8 percent ity supplies. annually, investments of $20 to $30 billion per year will Because of the links between reliable electricity supply, be needed [11]. It appears, however, that building more GDP growth, and living standards, many of the nations power plants may not provide a complete solution to with emerging economies are attempting to increase Chinas electric power limitations. Equally important is access to reliable electricity supply. The need to increase supplying primary fuel to the power plants and con-their citizens access to electricity has led many govern- structing transmission lines to reach electricity consum-ments of the emerging economies to implement a vari- ers. The Chinese State Grid Corporation estimates that ety of strategies, such as privatization to increase investments of $10 billion per year will be needed for investment in the electricity sector, enacting govern- upgrading electricity transmission infrastructure alone ment policies to encourage investment from potential [12].

foreign participants, and introducing rural electrifica- The potential impacts of lack of electric power infra-tion schemes aimed at bringing electricity to rural com- structure on Chinas economy are illustrated by recent munities, both to improve standards of living and to developments in the countrys industrial sector.

increase the productivity of rural societies. The Interna- Three-quarters of the electricity consumed in China is tional Energy Agency has estimated that 1.6 billion peo- used for manufacturing and heavy industry [13]. When ple lacked access to electricity in 2002 and that, despite electricity shortages occurred in the summer of 2004, projected gains in electrification rates, the number of some industrial production had to be cut. In 2004 Beijing people without access to electricity will fall only slightly shut down approximately 6,400 industrial facilities for (to 1.4 billion in 2030), mostly as a result of continued one week and then staggered their operations for the population growth in developing countries [7]. duration of the summer to avoid consumption peaks

[14]. It is clear that, unless the Chinese electricity infra-As an example of the efforts being made to improve elec-structure can keep pace with demand for electric power, trification, India announced plans in March 2005 to con-the negative impact of electricity shortages on the indus-tinue subsidizing electricity consumption for rural and trial sector could have significant detrimental impacts poor households that use less than 30 kilowatthours per on the countrys economy.

month. Currently, 45 percent of households in India do not have access to electricity. The new legislation has set a target of electrifying all households by 2010. As in the Electricity Supply past, the ongoing challenge in providing electricity to To meet the worlds projected electricity demand over the poor is paying for the electricity. Some progress has the 2002 to 2025 forecast period, an extensive expansion been made in reducing cross-sector subsidy burdens; of installed generating capacity will be required.

11 The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia acceded to the European Union in May 2004. Bulgaria and Romania are scheduled to join in 2007.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 67

Worldwide installed electricity generating capacity is although electricity generation from nuclear power expected to grow from 3,315 gigawatts in 2002 to 5,495 increased rapidly from the 1970s through the mid-1980s, gigawatts in 2025 in the IEO2005 reference case, at a and natural-gas-fired generation has grown rapidly in 2.2-percent average annual growth rate (Figure 60). the 1980s and 1990s. In contrast, in conjunction with the high world oil prices brought on by the oil price shocks In IEO2005, generating capacity is defined as the after the oil embargo by the Organization of Arab Petro-hourly level of production when a power plant is operat- leum Exporting Countries (OAPEC)13 in 1973-1974 and ing at full capacity. Baseload generation typically oper- the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the use of oil for electric-ates as close to full capacity as possible. Peaking ity generation has been slowing since the mid-1970s.

systems, such as natural gas turbines, typically operate High world oil prices encouraged switching from at times of peak demandthat is, those times of the day oil-fired generation to natural gas and nuclear power when electricity use is at its highest. In contrast, most and reinforced coals important role in world electric renewable electricity generation systems12 cannot be power generation.

relied upon to meet peak demand. Instead, renewable systems are operated whenever resources are available. In the IEO2005 reference case, continued increases in the Wind turbines do not operate when wind speeds are use of natural gas for electricity generation are expected either too low or too high; hydroelectric power is vulner- worldwide (Figure 61). Coal is projected to continue to able to drought; and solar systems do not operate at retain the largest market share for electricity generation, night. That said, even fossil fuel and nuclear power but its importance is expected to be moderated some-plants cannot operate at 100 percent capacity all year what by a rise in natural gas use. The role of nuclear long. Outages for annual maintenance, as well as sea- power in the worlds electricity markets is projected to sonal and daily fluctuations in demand, reduce their lessen, although some new reactors are expected to be operating capacity relative to their nameplate added over the forecast horizon, mostly in the emerging capacity. and transitional economies. Generation from hydro-power and other renewable energy sources is projected The mix of primary fuels used to generate electricity has to grow by 54 percent over the next 23 years, but their changed a great deal over the past three decades on a share of total electricity generation is projected to remain worldwide basis. Coal has remained the dominant fuel, near the current level of 18 percent.

Figure 60. World Electricity Generation Capacity Figure 61. Fuel Shares of World Electricity by Region, 2002-2025 Generation, 2002-2025 Gigawatts 4,000 2002 History History Projections Mature Market Economies Transitional Economies 2010 Projections 3,000 Emerging Economies 2015 Oil 2,000 Natural Gas 2020 Coal Nuclear 1,000 2025 Renewables 0 20 40 60 80 100 0

2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Percent of Total Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ 0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Energy Markets (2005). Global Energy Markets (2005).

12 The generation capacity data presented in this chapter as renewables include hydropower, wind, geothermal, solar, and other. The data for hydropower include conventional hydro impoundment, run-of-river, and pumped storage because of the difficulty in distinguish-ing among the various technologies on a worldwide basis. A further challenge is accounting for distributed small-scale hydroelectricity pro-duction. Therefore, the renewable generation capacity figures may underrepresent total installed capacity. Biomass-fired capacity is not included (except for cases where biomass is added to the coal stream in coal-fired power plants and in the U.S. data) because of limited data availability.

13 OAPEC includes Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar.

68 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Coal 2025 (Figure 62). Installed coal-fired capacity, as a share of total world capacity, declines from 30 percent to 26 In the IEO2005 reference case, coal continues to be the percent over the forecast.

dominant fuel for generation of electricity and combined heat and power (district heat).14 In 2025, coal is projected By country, the United States and China currently are to fuel 38 percent of the worlds electricity generation, the leaders in terms of installed coal-fired capacity, at compared with a 24-percent share for natural gas. Coal- 311 and 204 gigawatts, respectively. In China, strong fired capacity is expected to grow by 1.5 percent per growth in natural-gas-fired capacity is projected to push year, from 987 gigawatts in 2002 to 1,403 gigawatts in coals share down from 65 percent to 52 percent of total Electricity Consumption per Capita Net electricity consumption in the worlds emerging The differences in per capita electricity consumption economies is projected to grow by 149 percent from among the emerging, transitional, and mature market 2002 to 2025. By that measure, the emerging economies economies are especially stark in the residential sector, would surpass the mature market economies in terms which can serve as a proxy for living standards. For of total annual electricity consumption; in terms of per example, in the residential sector on a per person basis, capita consumption, however, the emerging econo- Canada and the United States consumed over 24 times mies are expected to continue trailing the mature mar- more electricity than China in 2002, 29 times more than ket economies (see figure below). With the emerging Africa, and 47 times more than India. Although the dif-economies expected to account for 82 percent of the ferences are expected to narrow over the forecast worlds population in 2025, the projected increase in period, they still would be substantial in 2025, with per demand forecast for the region translates to an increase capita electricity use in the United States remaining 9 in per capita net electricity consumption from 950 times higher than in China, 14 times higher than in kilowatthours per person in 2002 to 1,807 kilowatt- Africa, and 17 times higher than in India (see figure hours per person in 2025. Even with this strong below).

growth, per capita consumption for the emerging econ-omies as a whole would remain much lower than that Residential Sector Electricity Consumption for the mature market economies. Net electricity use per Capita by Country Group, 2002 and 2025 per capita in the mature market economies is projected India 2002 to increase from 8,371 kilowatthours per person in 2002 to 10,632 kilowatthours per person in 2025. Africa 2025 China Electricity Consumption per Capita by Region, Other Emerging Asia 2002 and 2025 Mexico Kilowatthours per Capita per Year Central and South America 12,000 2002 2025 South Korea 10,000 Middle East Former Soviet Union 8,000 Eastern Europe 6,000 Western Europe Japan 4,000 Australia/New Zealand United States 2,000 Canada 0

Emerging Transitional Mature Market 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Economies Economies Economies Kilowatthours per Capita per Year Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ 0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site iea/. 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy www.eia.doe.gov/ iea/. 2025: EIA, System for the Analysis of Markets (2005). Global Energy Markets (2005).

14 Only in the EE/FSU region is heat a significant portion of the output from central power stations.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 69

generating capacity. In the United States, coal-fired choice for new power plants because of its fuel effi-power plants are expected to continue supplying most ciency, operating flexibility, rapid deployment, and of the countrys electricity through 2025 [15]. In 2002, lower installation costs compared to other technologies.

coal-fired plants in the United States (including utilities, This development represents a major change in the fleet independent power producers, and end-use combined of electricity generation plants. Because of the shorter heat and power) accounted for 51 percent of all electric- installation time and lower investment costs for ity generation. While the output from U.S. coal-fired gas-fired combined-cycle generation in comparison to power plants increases in the forecast, from 1,881 billion coal, total installed natural gas capacity (combined with kilowatthours in 2002 to 2,890 billion kilowatthours in oil capacity) is expected to surpass coal-fired installed 2025, their share of total generation decreases slightly, to generation capacity by 20101,207 gigawatts versus 50 percent, as a result of a rapid increase in natu- 1,151 gigawatts. The combined share of natural gas and ral-gas-fired generation. oil in world installed generating capacity is projected to rise from 36 percent in 2002 to 47 percent in 2025.

Coal consumption in the United States as a share of fuels used for electricity generation is expected to rise from 52 In the United States, the electric power sector is pro-to 53 percent over the forecast. In terms of installed jected to account for an ever-larger share of total natural capacity, coals share of the total will hold steady at 35 gas demand. About 23 percent of total U.S. natural gas percent. Coal is used for baseload generation, which consumption in 2002 was in the electric power sector, explains why it accounts for only 35 percent of U.S. and in 2025 its share is projected to be to 31 percent [16].

capacity but generates more than one-half of the coun- Natural-gas-fired generation capacity is expected to trys electricity. grow more rapidly than capacity using any other energy source from 2002 to 2020. From 2020 to 2025, however, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and the FSU all are natural gas prices are projected to increase substantially, projected to see declines in coal-fired generating capac- and as a result coal-fired capacity is expected to lead ity over the forecast period. Not surprisingly, the three new additions [17].

regions are also expected to see large increases in installed natural-gas-fired capacity. Western Europe, Japan, and Canada are similarly expected to favor natural gas capacity over other fuels Natural Gas for new generating capacity because of lower invest-Additions to natural gas capacity are projected to ment costs and shorter construction times, as well as the increase the worlds gas-fired generating capacity by fact that gas is an advantageous economic alternative to approximately 3.9 percent per year from 2002 to 2025 other fossil fuels. Moreover, these regions have insti-(Figure 63), at a faster rate than projected for any other tuted energy policies to limit the use of coal in the energy source. Natural-gas-fired capacity is an attractive Figure 63. World Natural-Gas- and Oil-Fired Figure 62. World Coal-Fired Generation Capacity Generation Capacity by Region, by Region, 2002-2025 2002-2025 Gigawatts Gigawatts 1,500 1,500 Mature Market Economies Mature Market Economies 1,250 Transitional Economies 1,250 Transitional Emerging Economies Emerging 1,000 1,000 750 750 500 500 250 250 0 0 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Adminis- Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Adminis-tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA- tration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia. 0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.

doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Global Energy Markets (2005).

70 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

electricity generation sector. With the Kyoto Protocol result of expectations that few new reactors would be now in effect, further efforts to reduce greenhouse gas built and that older reactors would be shut down when emissions will likely encourage more reliance on natural they reached the end of their operating lives.

gas [18].

Prospects for nuclear power have improved in recent The FSU region, with its access to rich natural gas years, with higher capacity utilization rates reported for resources, also increases its reliance on natural gas for many existing nuclear facilities and the expectation that electricity generation in the IEO2005 reference case fore- most existing plants in the mature market and transi-cast. Natural gas already provides about 45 percent of tional economy nations will be granted extensions to the total energy used for electricity generation in the their operating lives. Further, higher fossil fuel prices FSU, and the regions reliance on gas-fired generation is and the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are projected to increase even further over the next decades, expected to improve prospects for new nuclear power to 55 percent in 2025. capacity over the forecast period. Nevertheless, nuclear power trends can be difficult to anticipate for a variety of Natural gas consumption in Chinas electric power sec-political and social reasons, and considerable uncer-tor is projected to increase rapidly from a relatively low tainty is associated with nuclear power forecasts (see total of 0.2 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 4.3 quadrillion Btu box on page 72).

in 2025, at an impressive 14.7-percent average annual growth rate. In comparison, India, South Korea, and the Nuclear power is an important source of electricity in rest of emerging Asia combined are expected to see an many countries of the world. In 2003, 19 countries increase of 3.7 quadrillion Btu over the period, and natu- depended on nuclear power for at least 20 percent of ral gas use for electricity generation in the United States their electricity generation (Figure 64). As of March 2005, is projected to grow by 3.9 quadrillion Btu.

Oil Figure 64. Nuclear Shares of National Electricity Generation, 2004 Relatively little change is expected in oil-fired genera-tion capacity. Oils share of the worlds installed capac- France Lithuania ity declines over the projection period, from an 8-percent Slovakia market share in 2002 to 7 percent in 2025. Oil has more Belgium value in the transportation sector and in limited applica- Sweden tions for distributed diesel-fired generators than in cen- Ukraine tral power plant applications. The only region expected Bulgaria to see a sizable increase in oil-fired electric power capac- Slovenia ity is the Middle East, where some new oil-fired capacity South Korea Switzerland is expected to be built. Oil use for electricity generation Armenia in the Middle East is expected to increase from 2.1 qua- Hungary drillion Btu in 2002 to 4.1 quadrillion Btu in 2025. Germany In recent years, China has shown fairly strong growth in Czech Republic Japan oil-fired electricity generation, because peak electricity Finland demand continues to outpace on-grid electricity genera- Spain tion, and Chinese industry has had to rely on diesel gen- United States erators to cope with annual summer power shortages. United Kingdom That situation is expected to continue in the short term, Russia but as planned capacity fueled by natural gas, coal, Canada nuclear, and hydropower comes on line and the coun- Romania Argentina trys national electricity grid matures, the demand for oil South Africa used to generate electricity is expected to moderate. Mexico Nuclear Power Netherlands Brazil In the IEO2005 reference case, electricity generation India from nuclear power plants around the world is pro- Pakistan jected to increase from 2,560 billion kilowatthours in China 2002 to 3,032 billion kilowatthours in 2015 and 3,270 bil-0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 lion kilowatthours in 2025, and the worlds nuclear-powered generating capacity is projected to increase Percent from 361 gigawatts in 2002 to 422 gigawatts in 2025. In Source: International Atomic Energy Agency, Reference past editions of the IEO, in contrast, declines in nuclear Data Series 2, Power Reactor Information System, web site power were projected in the mid-term forecast as a www.iaea.org/programmes/a2/ (June 2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 71

How Nuclear Power Could Shape World Electricity Markets: Two Nuclear Power Development Scenarios Two opposing scenarios of nuclear power develop- The table on the opposite page summarizes the pro-ment can be used to assess the potential of nuclear jected fuel mix for the worlds installed electric power power in the electricity markets of the future. In a capacity in three cases: the IEO2005 reference case, strong nuclear power revival case developed for strong nuclear power revival case, and weak nuclear IEO2005, few nuclear plants are retired, and new power case. With the same macroeconomic assump-builds increase the worlds total nuclear generating tions in each of the three cases, it is not surprising that capacity to 570 gigawatts in 2025. In contrast, a weak they all project the same total (about 5,500 gigawatts) nuclear power case assumes that nuclear power pro- for world installed electricity capacity in 2025.

grams, especially in Western Europe and the EE/FSU, are dismantled, few new nuclear power plants are con- Much of the expansion in nuclear generating capacity structed, and installed nuclear power capacity falls to projected in the strong nuclear power revival casea 297 gigawatts in 2025. The IEO2005 reference case pro- total of 148 gigawattsis in regions with older, more jects an increase in world nuclear capacity, from 361 mature nuclear power markets. Many Western Euro-gigawatts in 2002 to 422 gigawatts in 2025. pean and EE/FSU countries have established nuclear power industries, and they would be capable of stav-In very few instances is the decision to build nuclear ing off the decline in nuclear power capacity projected power capacity left entirely to corporations or utilities in the reference case by reversing planned phaseouts of that would base their decisions solely on economics. In existing nuclear power plants, lengthening operating general, government policy (with an eye to public lives, and constructing new nuclear capacity in re-opinion) guides the development of nuclear power. sponse to, for example, concerns about climate change.

The OAPEC oil embargo of 1973-74 led some nations to pursue nuclear power programs aggressively in the In the strong nuclear case, Western Europes projected 1970s, mostly with strong public support; but subse- nuclear generating capacity in 2025 is 52 gigawatts quent accidents at the Three Mile Island nuclear power higher than in the reference, the EE/FSUs is 36 plant in the United States in 1979 and Chernobyl in the gigawatts higher, and Japans is 15 gigawatts higher.

Soviet Union in 1986 pushed public opinion and The IEO2005 strong nuclear case assumes that emerg-national energy policies away from nuclear power. In ing economies with nuclear power expansion plans, the United States, rapidly increasing capital costs and including China, India, and South Korea, expand the repeated construction delays virtually ended construc- development of nuclear power to the greatest extent tion of nuclear power plants; and in Europe, both possible. Therefore, in the strong nuclear revival case before and after the Chernobyl disaster, several Euro- the emerging nations are able to increase their nuclear pean governments, including Italy, Austria, Belgium, capacity by adding a combined 37 gigawatts of addi-Germany, and Sweden announced their intentions to tional capacity by 2025 relative to the reference case withdraw from the nuclear power arena. values.

For many years analysts expected social, economic, Construction and operation of 148 gigawatts of addi-and political pressures to cause a substantial slow- tional nuclear capacity in 2025 in the strong nuclear down of nuclear power expansion in the short term revival case would have the greatest impact on the fuel and a decline in nuclear generating capacity in the long shares of natural gas, oil, and renewables in the fuel term. More recently, however, there has been talk of a mix for world electricity generation (see table). Because renaissance in the nuclear power programs of the Western Europe, the EE/FSU, and Japan all are pro-United States and some European countries, as fossil jected to see declines or minimal growth in coal-fired fuel prices have remained relatively high, and energy capacity in the reference case, there is little or no oppor-security issues, concerns about air pollution and global tunity for new nuclear capacity to displace coal. As a warming, and the high performance levels of existing result, the strong nuclear revival case shows declines of nuclear power plants have come to the forefront.a On 96 gigawatts in natural gas and oil capacity and 32 the other hand, a future adverse event involving gigawatts in renewable electricity capacity in 2025 rela-nuclear power, such as another Chernobyl-sized tive to the reference case projections.

nuclear power plant accident or a terrorist event involving an attack on a nuclear plant or using pro- In the weak nuclear power case, almost every region cessed nuclear materials to commit an act of terrorism, loses some nuclear capacity by 2025 relative to the ref-could strengthen negative perceptions of nuclear erence case. Only for the Middle East and Mexico, with power. (continued on page 73) aS. Taub and J.-L. Wang, The U.S. Nuclear Power Business: Poised for Expansion? (Cambridge, MA: Cambridge Energy Research Associ-ates, May 2005), p. 1 (private report).

72 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

How Nuclear Power Could Shape World Electricity Markets: Two Nuclear Power Development Scenarios (Continued) their relatively small nuclear power industries, are the case, with 20 gigawatts of additional coal capacity con-2025 projections unchanged from those in the reference structed in China, India, and South Korea compared to case.b Total world installed nuclear capacity in 2025 is the reference case in 2025. The other emerging Asian 125 gigawatts lower in the weak nuclear case than in countries construct an additional 7 gigawatts of natu-the reference case. Western Europe sheds the largest ral-gas-fired and oil-fired capacity in the weak nuclear amount of nuclear capacity in 2025 in the weak nuclear case. In Western Europe, the EE/FSU, and Japan, natu-case (50 gigawatts), followed by the EE/FSU (27 giga- ral gas, oil, and renewables are used to make up for the watts), emerging Asia (24 gigawatts), and Japan (14 loss of nuclear capacity, with 63 gigawatts of additional gigawatts). natural-gas- and oil-fired capacity and 10 gigawatts of additional renewable capacity constructed relative to In emerging Asia, coal-fired capacity makes up for the reference case projections in 2025.

most of the loss of nuclear capacity in the weak nuclear World Installed Electricity Generation Capacity by Fuel in Three Nuclear Capacity Cases, 2002-2025 (Gigawatts)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Analysis Case and Fuel Type 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 IEO2005 Reference Case Natural Gas and Oil . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,851 2,071 2,304 2,560 3.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 987 1,151 1,232 1,322 1,403 1.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 390 401 411 422 0.7 Renewable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 763 927 980 1,036 1,110 1.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,318 4,319 4,684 5,073 5,495 2.2 Strong Nuclear Power Revival Case Natural Gas and Oil . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,849 2,041 2,254 2,464 3.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 987 1,153 1,232 1,320 1,397 1.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 395 449 498 570 2.0 Renewable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 763 928 970 1,020 1,078 1.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,318 4,326 4,692 5,092 5,509 2.2 Weak Nuclear Power Case Natural Gas and Oil . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,865 2,087 2,342 2,626 3.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 987 1,160 1,245 1,339 1,426 1.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 360 357 340 297 -0.8 Renewable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 763 934 987 1,050 1,127 1.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,318 4,318 4,677 5,071 5,476 2.2 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

bFor the purposes of this analysis, U.S. nuclear capacities were not varied across the nuclear cases. While EIA recognizes that there is potential for increases or decreases in U.S. nuclear power capacity in the future, no analysis has been done to quantify that potential. As a result, U.S. numbers are held constant to levels reported in the Annual Energy Outlook 2005.

there were 441 nuclear power reactors in operation For the mature market economies, the reference case around the world, and another 25 were under construc- assumes that, in the long term, retirements of existing tion. Five new nuclear power plants began operation in plants as they reach the end of their operating lives will 2004one each in China, Japan, and Russia and two in not be balanced by the construction of new nuclear Ukraineand Canadas Bruce 3 reactor was recon- power capacity, and there will be a slight decline in nected to the grid. Five nuclear power plants were per- installed nuclear capacity toward the end of the forecast.

manently shut down in 2004one in Lithuania and four Few new builds are expected in the mature market in the United Kingdom. economies outside of Japan, France, and Finland.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 73

Western Europes nuclear capacity is projected to drop expected to compete economically with fossil fuels in the from 127 gigawatts in 2002 to 115 gigawatts in 2015 and mid-term forecast. In the absence of significant govern-95 gigawatts in 2025. In Japan, however, nuclear capac- ment policies, such as those aimed at reducing the ity is projected to expand by 9 gigawatts between 2002 impacts of carbon-emitting energy sources on the envi-and 2025. U.S. nuclear capacity is projected to increase ronment, it will be difficult to extend the use of from 99 gigawatts in 2002 to 103 gigawatts in 2025, in renewables on a large scale. Worldwide, the use of part because of the return of the Browns Ferry reactor, hydroelectricity and other renewable energy is pro-scheduled for 2007. Life extensions and higher capacity jected to increase by an average of 1.9 percent per year, factors are expected to play a major role in sustaining the from 32.1 quadrillion Btu in 2002 to 42.4 quadrillion Btu U.S. nuclear industry. Thus, despite a declining share of in 2015 and 48.9 quadrillion Btu in 2025.

global electricity production, nuclear power is projected to continue in its role as an important source of electric The IEO2005 projections for hydroelectricity and other power. renewable energy resources include only on-grid renewables. Non-marketed (noncommercial) biofuels In contrast to the mature market economies, rapid from plant and animal sources are an important source growth in nuclear power capacity is projected for Russia of energy, particularly in the developing world, and the and for the worlds emerging economies (Figure 65). The International Energy Agency has estimated that some EE/FSU and emerging economies combined are pro- 2.4 billion people in developing countries depend on jected to add 42 gigawatts of nuclear capacity between traditional biomass for heating and cooking [19]. How-2002 and 2015 and another 35 gigawatts between 2015 ever, because comprehensive data on the use of non-and 2025. Over the forecast period, the largest additions marketed fuels and dispersed renewables (renewable of nuclear capacity are expected in emerging Asia energy consumed on the site of its production, such as (China, India, and South Korea) and in Russia. China is solar panels used to heat water) are not available, they projected to add 24 gigawatts of nuclear capacity in the are not included in the projections. Both non-marketed IEO2005 reference case, India 12 gigawatts, South Korea fuels and dispersed renewables are considered in for-12 gigawatts, and Russia 14 gigawatts. Among the mulating end-use energy demands.

mature market economies, only Japan is expected to add a sizable amount of nuclear capacity, a total of 9 giga- Much of the projected growth in renewable generation is watts between 2002 and 2025. expected to result from the completion of large hydro-electric facilities in the countries with emerging econo-Hydroelectricity and Other Renewables mies (Figure 66), particularly in Asia, where the need to In the IEO2005 reference case, moderate growth in the expand electricity production with associated dams and worlds consumption of hydroelectricity and other reservoirs often outweighs concerns about environmen-renewable energy resources is projected over the fore- tal impacts and the relocation of populations. China, cast period. Most renewable energy sources are not Figure 66. World Hydroelectric and Other Figure 65. World Nuclear Power Generation Renewable Generation Capacity Capacity by Region, 2002-2025 by Region, 2002-2025 Gigawatts Gigawatts 500 600 Mature Market Economies Mature Market Economies Transitional Economies Transitional Economies 400 Emerging Economies Emerging Economies 400 300 200 200 100 0 0 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

74 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

India, and Laos, among other emerging Asian econo- Germany, Spain, and Denmark all were among the top mies, already are constructing or planning new five wind installers in 2003. Germany added the most large-scale hydroelectric facilities. In 2004, Indias wind capacity in 2003, 2,645 megawatts, bringing the 1,500-megawatt Nathpa Jhakri project on the Sutlej countrys total installed wind capacity to 14,609 mega-River in Himachal Pradesh became fully operational watts. In the United States, because the Federal produc-

[20]. In 2005, the World Bank approved financing for the tion tax credit for wind plants was not extended until

$1.2 billion Nam Theun project in Laos [21]. The 1,070- late in 2004, only a little more than 200 megawatts of new megawatt hydroelectric project in Laos has been the sub- wind capacity was added in 2004 [27]. In 2005, however, ject of much debate and delay over the past several more than 1,000 megawatts of new U.S. wind capacity is years, but with financial support from the World Bank expected to enter service.

and Asia Development Bank the project might come on line as early as 2009 [22].Chinas 11th five-year plan References expects 42 gigawatts of additional hydroelectric generat-

1. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook ing capacity by 2010 [23].

2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), p. 250.

Many nations of Central and South America have plans 2. P. Vorobyov, CERA Insight: Russian Electricity to expand their already well-established hydroelectric Reform After the Moscow Blackout (Cambridge, resources. Brazil, Peru, and even oil-rich Venezuela MA: Cambridge Energy Research Associates, June have plans to increase hydroelectric capacity over the 20, 2005), p. 5.

next decade. Brazil is the largest energy market in Cen- 3. A. Neff, Country ReportRussia (Energy):

tral and South America, and more than 80 percent of its Utilities: Electricity (World Market Research Cen-electricity generation comes from hydroelectric sources. tre, June 7, 2005) web site www.

As a result, Brazil is especially vulnerable to drought- worldmarketsanalysis.com.

induced shortages in electricity supply. In general, the

4. A. Neff, Country ReportKazakhstan (Energy):

nations of Central and South America are not expected Utilities: Electricity and Gas (World Market to expand hydroelectric resources dramatically but Research Centre, June 1, 2005), web site www.

instead are expected to invest in other sources of electric-worldmarketsanalysis.com.

ityparticularly natural-gas-fired capacitythat will allow them to diversify electricity supplies and reduce 5. A. Neff, Country ReportUkraine (Energy): Util-their reliance on hydropower. Brazil had planned to ities: Electricity and Gas (World Market Research increase the natural gas share of its generation to 12 per- Centre, June 1, 2005), web site www.

cent by 2012, but regulatory and price risks have slowed worldmarketsanalysis.com.

the construction timetables for its planned new gas-fired 6. S. Berger, Country ReportCzech Republic power plants [24]. (Energy): Utilities: Electricity (World Market Research Centre, June 1, 2005), web site www.

Hydroelectric capacity outside the emerging economies worldmarketsanalysis.com.

is not expected to grow substantially. Among the mature market nations, only Canada is expected to construct 7. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook any sizable hydroelectric projects over the forecast 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), p. 348.

period. An estimated 34,371 megawatts of new hydro- 8. Platts Global Power Report, Indian Govt. Hopes electric capacity currently is under consideration for New Electricity Policy Will Secure $205 Bil. Sector future development in Canada [25]. In the EE/FSU Investment (March 3, 2005), ISSN 1095-6441, web countries, most additions to hydroelectric capacity are site www.platts.com.

expected to come from repair or expansion of existing 9. World Markets Research Centre, Energy Sector plants. In the mature market and transitional economies, AnalysisIndia: New Indian Electricity Bill most hydroelectric resources either have already been Offers Hope of Greater Transparency and Competi-developed or lie far from population centers. tion (May 6, 2003), web site www.

worldmarketsanalysis.com.

Wind power has shown the fastest growth among renewable energy sources in recent years. In many 10. Platts Global Power Report, Indian Govt. Hopes emerging economies, small wind and wind-hybrid New Electricity Policy Will Secure $205 Bil. Sector installations are effective in bringing electric power to Investment (March 3, 2005), ISSN 1095-6441, web rural areas that cannot be connected to national grids; site www.platts.com.

and among the mature market economies, the growth in 11. World Markets Research Centre, Country wind power has been particularly robust. Western ReportChina (Energy) Utilities: Government Europe and the United States accounted for nearly 90 Policy (January 18, 2005), web site www.

percent of all new wind installations in 2003adding a worldmarketsanalysis.com.

combined 5,952 megawatts of new wind capacity [26].

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 75

12. World Markets Research Centre, Energy Sector 20. International Rivers Network, The World Banks AnalysisChina: Navigating the Minefield of Chi- Legacy of Funding Hydropower Projects in India:

nese Power Investment (March 23, 2005), web site Nathpa Jhakri (October 2004), web site www.worldmarketsanalysis.com. www.irn.org.

13. World Markets Research Centre, Energy Sector 21. World Markets Research Centre, World Bank AnalysisChina: Playing Catch Up: Chinese Power Approves Loan for Laotian Dam (April 4, 2005),

Generation (August 04, 2004), web site www. web site www.worldmarketsanalysis.com.

worldmarketsanalysis.com. 22. World Markets Research Centre, EDF Backtracks

14. World Markets Research Centre, Energy Sector on Laos Pull-Out (October 2, 2003), web site AnalysisChina: Urban Centres in China To www.worldmarketsanalysis.com.

Face Fresh Power Crunch During Summer 23. World Markets Research Centre, Country Months (April 07, 2005), web site www. ReportChina (Energy) Utilities: Government worldmarketsanalysis.com. Policy (January 18, 2005), web site www.

15. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy worldmarketsanalysis.com.

Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, 24. World Markets Research Centre, Country DC, February 2005), p. 88. ReportBrazil (Energy) Electricity (March 29,

16. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy 2005), web site www.worldmarketsanalysis.com.

Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, 25. World Markets Research Centre, Country Report:

DC, February 2005), p. 95. Canada (Energy), (January 30, 2004) web site

17. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy www.worldmarketsanalysis.com.

Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, 26. American Wind Energy Association, Wind Energy DC, February 2005), p. 87. Industry Grows at Steady Pace, Adds Over 8,000

18. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook MW in 2003, Global Wind Energy Market Report 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), p. 197. (March 10, 2004), web site www.awea.org.

19. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 27. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), p. 36. Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, DC, February 2005), p. 92.

76 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions In the coming decades, responses to environmental issues could affect patterns of energy use around the world. Actions to limit greenhouse gas emissions could alter the level and composition of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by energy source.

Carbon dioxide is one of the most prevalent greenhouse that, in the 5-year increments of the System for the Anal-gases in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic (human- ysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) model, upon caused) emissions of carbon dioxide result primarily which this forecast is based, 2010 is the only projection from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy, and as a year that is part of the Protocols first commitment result world energy use has emerged at the center of the period. Further, the specific energy-consuming sectors climate change debate. In the International Energy Out- that will be affected in each country and region have not look 2005 (IEO2005) reference case, world carbon dioxide been identified.

emissions are projected to rise from 24,409 million met-ric tons in 2002 to 33,284 million metric tons in 2015 and Despite the challenges, it is important to address the 38,790 million metric tons in 2025 (Figure 67).15 possible impacts of the Kyoto Protocol, because they could strongly influence future energy trends. Accord-The Kyoto Protocol, which requires participating ingly, this chapter begins with a presentation of the Annex I countries to reduce their greenhouse gas IEO2005 reference case forecast for regional carbon diox-emissions collectively to an annual average of about 5 ide emissions, which can serve as an estimate against percent below their 1990 level over the 2008-2012 period, which future emissions reductions can be measured.

became a legally binding treaty on February 16, 2005, 90 The IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol case assumes that the emis-days after it was ratified by Russia. Russias ratification sions goals of the Protocol will be met by the countries brought the total number of signatories to more than 55 that have ratified the treaty and have obligations to limit countries, including Annex I signatories that accounted or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, using a com-for more than 55 percent of Annex I carbon dioxide emis- bination of domestic actions and purchases of inter-sions in 1990. The Annex I countries include the 24 origi- national emissions permits. Results from the Kyoto nal members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (including the United Figure 67. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions States), the European Union, and 14 countries with econ- by Region, 1990-2025 omies in transition (Russia, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Billion Metric Tons Lithuania, and Eastern Europe).16 50 Mature Market Economies Total The IEO2005 reference case projections are based on U.S. Transitional Economies 40 and foreign government laws in effect on March 1, 2005. Emerging Economies The potential impacts of pending or proposed legisla-tion, regulations, and standards are not reflected in the 30 projections, nor are the impacts of legislation for which implementing mechanisms have not been announced. 20 The IEO2005 reference case forecast does not include the potential impacts of the Kyoto Protocol, because the treaty does not indicate the methods by which ratifying 10 parties will implement their obligations. Moreover, the Protocol does not address signatory obligations beyond 0 2012, making it impossible to assess its impacts on 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 energy markets and carbon dioxide emissions through Sources: 1990 and 2002: Energy Information Administration 2025 in the context of a reference case projection. (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219 (2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.

Another difficulty in projecting energy-related carbon gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global dioxide emissions in the context of the Kyoto Protocol is Energy Markets (2005).

15 In keeping with current international practice, IEO2005 presents data on greenhouse gas emissions in million metric tons carbon diox-ide equivalent. The figures can be converted to carbon equivalent units by multiplying by 12/44.

16 As of May 27, 2005, 149 countries and the European Community had ratified, accepted, acceded to, or approved the Kyoto Protocol. A list of the 149 countries is provided in Appendix J.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 77

Protocol case are analyzed in the second part of the projected increases in population, drives the demand for chapter. fossil fuels and thus the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions.

Reference Case In contrast to North America, Western Europe and Carbon Dioxide Emissions mature market Asia are projected to have fairly modest In the IEO2005 reference case, world carbon dioxide growth in GDP (2.0 and 1.8 percent per year, respec-emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels are tively) and either flat or declining population numbers expected to grow at an average rate of 2.0 percent per over the forecast. Thus, only limited growth in demand year from 2002 to 2025. Emissions in 2025 are projected for energy is projected for those regions, leading to to total 38,790 million metric tons, exceeding 1990 levels slower growth in emissions. For Western Europe, car-by 81 percent. Combustion of petroleum products bon dioxide emissions are projected to grow by 0.5 per-contributes 5,454 million metric tons to the projected cent per year on average from 2002 to 2025, and for increase from 2002, coal 5,353 million metric tons, mature market Asia the projected average annual and natural gas 3,540 million metric tons (Figure 68). increase in emissions is 0.6 percent.

Although coal use is projected to grow at a slower rate The economic collapse of the transitional economies of than natural gas use over the projection period, coal is a Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) more carbon-intensive fuel than natural gas. As a result, dampened the growth of carbon dioxide emissions the increment in carbon dioxide emissions from coal worldwide between 1990 and 2002. In the IEO2005 refer-combustion is larger than the increment in emissions ence case, carbon dioxide emissions in the EE/FSU from natural gas. region are projected to increase on average by 1.5 per-cent per year, to 3,937 million metric tons in 2015 and The mature market economies, for the most part, are 4,386 million metric tons in 2025 (Figure 70). The transi-growing more slowly than the emerging economies, and tional economies are dominated by Russia, the regions their growth tends to be in less energy-intensive sectors.

largest economy, which accounts for 51 percent of its As a result, carbon dioxide emissions from the mature energy consumption and 45 percent of related carbon market economies are projected to grow by 1.1 percent dioxide emissions.

per year from 2002 to 2025, absent binding constraints (Figure 69 and Table 10). Emissions from North America Although GDP growth in the EE/FSU region is pro-are projected to grow the most rapidly among the jected to average 4.4 percent per year from 2002 to 2025, mature market regions, by 1.5 percent per year. North improvements in energy infrastructure are expected to Americas average annual increase in gross domestic keep the growth in energy demand at an annual average product (GDP) is 3.1 percent over the forecast horizon, of 1.6 percent. In addition, an increase in natural gas as a and that strong economic growth, combined with share of total energy production and a drop in coals Figure 68. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Figure 69. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Mature Fuel Type, 1970-2025 Market Economies, 1990-2025 Billion Metric Tons Billion Metric Tons 50 20 History Projections Mature Market Asia Western Europe 40 15 North America 30 Total 10 20 Oil 5

10 Coal Natural Gas 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2025 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: 1990 and 2002: Energy Information Administration International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219 (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

78 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

share are expected to lower the carbon intensity of Carbon Dioxide Intensity energy supply in the region and keep carbon dioxide World carbon dioxide intensity has improved (de-emissions in the transitional economies well below their creased) substantially over the past three decades, fall-1990 level of 4,894 million metric tons. ing from 853 metric tons per million 2000 U.S. dollars of For the worlds emerging economies, the reference case GDP in 1970 to 517 metric tons per million dollars in projects strong economic growth driven largely by the 2002. Although the pace of improvement in emissions energy-intensive industrial and transportation sectors. intensity is expected to be slower over the 2002 to 2025 Accordingly, carbon dioxide emissions in the emerging period than over the past three decades, a continuing economies are projected to grow at twice the rate pro- decline in intensity is projected in the reference case, to jected for the transitional economies and almost three 422 metric tons per million dollars in 2015 and 344 metric times the rate for the mature market economies, averag- tons per million dollars in 2025.

ing 3.2 percent per year from 2002 to 2025. The most On a regional basis, the most rapid rates of improvement rapid increases in carbon dioxide emissions are pro- in carbon dioxide intensity are projected for the transi-jected for the nations of emerging Asia (Figure 71). tional economies of the EE/FSU and for the emerging Table 10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change Region 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 1990-2002 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies . . . . 10,465 11,877 13,080 13,745 14,392 15,183 1.1 1.1 North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,769 6,701 7,674 8,204 8,759 9,379 1.3 1.5 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,413 3,549 3,674 3,761 3,812 3,952 0.3 0.5 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . 1,284 1,627 1,731 1,780 1,822 1,852 2.0 0.6 Transitional Economies . . . . . . 4,894 3,124 3,643 3,937 4,151 4,386 -3.7 1.5 Emerging Economies . . . . . . . . 6,101 9,408 13,478 15,602 17,480 19,222 3.7 3.2 Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,890 6,205 9,306 10,863 12,263 13,540 4.0 3.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 845 1,361 1,761 1,975 2,163 2,352 4.1 2.4 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655 854 1,122 1,283 1,415 1,524 2.2 2.5 Central and South America . . . . 711 988 1,289 1,480 1,639 1,806 2.8 2.7 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,460 24,409 30,201 33,284 36,023 38,790 1.1 2.0 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Figure 70. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Figure 71. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Transitional Economies, 1990-2025 Emerging Economies, 1990-2025 Billion Metric Tons Billion Metric Tons 8 25 History Projections History Projections Central and South America 20 6 Eastern Europe Africa Former Soviet Union Middle East 15 Emerging Asia 4

10 2

5 0 0 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),

International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219 (2002) International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219 (2002)

(Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/ (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/

iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 79

economies of China and India. In the FSU, economic reliant on fossil fuels, especially coal, in the IEO2005 ref-recovery from the upheaval of the 1990s is expected to erence case, but their combined annual GDP growth is continue throughout the forecast. The FSU nations are projected to average 5.9 percent, compared with an also expected to replace old, inefficient capital stock as expected 3.9-percent annual rate of increase in fossil fuel economic recovery progresses. use over the projection period. Chinas carbon dioxide intensity is expected to decrease by 2.1 percent per year The Eastern European nations began their economic on average between 2002 and 2025 and Indias by 2.4 recovery much earlier than the nations of the FSU. As a percent per year.

result of strong investment in improving the efficiency of energy use among Eastern European countries and a Rates of improvement in carbon dioxide intensity could push to increase the use of natural gas, carbon dioxide vary considerably in the future, based on technological intensity fell by more than 43 percent in Eastern Europe advances, government policy initiatives, and economic between 1990 and 2002, as compared with an increase of growth rates. In the IEO2005 reference case, world car-almost 4 percent in Russia and a decrease of 27 percent in bon dioxide intensity is projected to fall from 517 metric the other FSU nations. Improvement in carbon dioxide tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP in 2002 to 344 met-intensity in Eastern Europe is projected to continue over ric tons per million dollars in 2025; however, if world the projection period, at an average rate of 2.6 percent economic growth expands to the levels projected in the per year (Table 11).

IEO2005 high economic growth case, carbon dioxide Emerging Asia is expected to see fairly rapid improve- intensity could fall more quickly, to 325 metric tons per ment in carbon dioxide intensity over the 2002-2025 million dollars in 2025. In contrast, if the world economy period, primarily as a result of rapid economic growth expands more slowly, as in the low economic growth rather than a switch to less carbon-intensive fuels. China case, carbon dioxide intensity could decline to a pro-and India, in particular, are expected to remain heavily jected 383 metric tons per million dollars in 2025.

Table 11. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Region and Country, 1970-2025 (Metric Tons per Million 2000 U.S. Dollars of Gross Domestic Product)

Average Annual History Projections Percent Change 1990- 2002-Region 1970 1980 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002 2025 Mature Market Economies North America United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,117 917 701 571 501 459 423 393 -2.1 -1.6 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,046 883 691 612 562 527 495 481 -1.7 -1.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351 405 452 377 340 317 286 255 0.2 -1.7 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 695 624 471 377 333 307 281 264 -1.9 -1.5 Mature Market Asia Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 627 497 348 359 310 291 274 259 -1.7 -1.4 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . 1,094 715 702 721 667 621 583 544 -1.3 -1.2 Transitional Economies Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 837 897 820 850 635 568 504 445 0.0 -2.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,211 1,210 1,843 1,346 926 801 682 602 0.3 -3.4 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,454 1,445 1,198 679 549 482 422 372 -2.3 -2.6 Emerging Economies Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 890 766 637 470 434 389 343 300 -2.0 -1.9 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,560 1,943 1,252 605 570 500 436 375 -4.4 -2.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286 312 346 324 272 242 212 185 0.4 -2.4 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 791 868 698 680 555 515 484 454 -0.5 -1.7 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506 566 894 951 833 761 687 621 2.0 -1.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 522 542 609 595 549 518 477 431 0.4 -1.4 Central and South America . . . . 481 409 408 414 407 383 347 314 -0.5 -1.2 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 853 753 649 517 461 422 381 344 -1.6 -1.8 Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

80 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Kyoto Protocol Case given country or region is used to determine the price that the country or region would be willing to pay for the Modeling Approach next additional reduction of 1 metric ton. If the price of a Under the Kyoto Protocol, participating Annex I nations carbon permit traded internationally exceeds the are required to reduce or limit emissions of carbon diox- shadow price of the domestic reduction, then the coun-ide and other greenhouse gases over the first commit- try or region would be better off achieving that reduc-ment period (January 2008 to December 2012) to a level tion domestically. If the price of a purchased permit is that was determined as part of the negotiation process. less than the shadow price, then the country or region The year 1990 was used as the base year for most coun- would be expected to choose the trading option.

tries, although some were allowed to use other years.17 To fulfill their obligations under the treaty, the Annex I Unlike the mature market economies that have ratified countries must limit their emissions over the 5-year the Kyoto Protocol, the EE/FSU transitional economies commitment period to an annual average that is at or have reported estimated emissions that are below their below their commitment goals. Because the SAGE Kyoto goal levels. Over the forecast period the credits model used to generate IEO2005 forecasts projects in they provide would be enough to satisfy all the other 5-year increments, 2010 is used as the basis year for Annex I countries demand for reductions once their achieving commitments in the first period.18 domestic goals are met. The credits available from the EE/FSU countries have no direct costs, because they do The SAGE model comprises 15 regions. In the Kyoto not require any actions to be taken. Under the model Protocol case, the model regions affected by the treaty structure of perfect competition, price equals cost; how-are Canada, Japan, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, ever, a transaction cost of $10 per ton was imposed in the and the FSU. Although New Zealand has ratified the SAGE model in order to derive a price greater than zero.

Protocol and intends to honor the terms of the treaty, Australia has not. In SAGE, New Zealand and Australia Summary are treated as a single entity; and Australias energy use The Kyoto Protocol case assumes that energy use will far exceeds New Zealands. Therefore, projections for not vary from the reference case forecast for Annex I Australia/New Zealand are not included in the results countries that are not expected to participate in the of the Kyoto Protocol case. treaty (the United States and Australia, for example) or for countries that are not required to make reductions In the formulation of the Kyoto Protocol case, assump-according to the terms of the treaty (China and India, for tions were made about how the affected regions would example). As a result, only the projections for energy use achieve their reductions, based whenever possible on in the Annex I nations committed to participating in the official government statements. For instance, the Euro-Kyoto Protocol are changed in the Kyoto Protocol case.

pean Union (EU) has stated that most of its green-For the participating Annex I group, total energy house gas emissions reductions must be achieved demand in the Kyoto Protocol case is projected to be 3 domestically. The Kyoto Protocol case therefore quadrillion Btu lower than in the reference case in 2010, assumes that 50 percent of the aggregate emission and almost 4 quadrillion Btu lower in 2025, assuming reduction for Western Europe will be met by domestic that the Kyoto targets remain constant over the entire reductions, as opposed to using the international market forecast period (Table 12).

mechanisms allowed under the Protocol (see box on page 83). In the Kyoto Protocol case, energy-related carbon diox-Both Japan and Canada have higher domestic reduction ide emissions in the participating nations are projected costs than Western Europe, and neither country has to be 402 million metric tons lower than in the reference announced its intentions on the specific share of reduc- case in 2010 and 593 million metric tons lower in 2025.

tions that must be reached through domestic actions. In Total coal use among the participating Annex I nations the Kyoto Protocol case, both countries are assumed to in 2025 is projected to be about 18 percent lower than in achieve 25 percent of their total reductions domestically. the reference case in 2025, and the carbon dioxide emis-sions associated with their coal use are projected to be In the IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol case, a country or region nearly 21 percent lower than in the reference case, pri-is first required to achieve its domestic reduction goal. marily because of the expected penetration of carbon After the domestic requirement has been met, the coun- sequestration technologies in Western Europe. These try or region is free to seek other means of meeting its technologies sequester 90 percent of the emissions from overall reduction goalfor example, by trading carbon coal-fired generation. The penetration of the sequestra-permits internationally. In SAGE, the shadow price of tion technology also limits the potential for renewables reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 1 metric ton in a development.

17 The countries using a base year other than 1990 are Bulgaria (1988), Hungary (1985-87), Poland (1988), and Romania (1989).

18 For detailed assumptions in the Kyoto Protocol case, see Appendix G.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 81

Total oil consumption for the participating nations is carbon dioxide emission reductions in Canada will be almost 2 quadrillion Btu lower in the Kyoto Protocol met through domestic actions, and 177.8 million metric case in 2025, and the emissions associated with their oil tons (75 percent) will be met through the Protocols mar-use are 143 million metric tons lower. In the short term, ket mechanisms.

natural gas is expected to displace coal use among the In April 2005, Canada unveiled its plan for compliance, participating Annex I nations, because natural gas is based on multiple approaches. The plan includes bind-cleaner than coal and has an economic advantage over ing constraints on the countrys electric power sector nuclear and renewable energy sources that produce no and large-scale industrial emitters, subsidies for wind net carbon dioxide emissions. In the longer term, as the power, a partnership fund between government and marginal costs of carbon dioxide reductions increase, industry, soil management goals, and programs in con-natural gas becomes less attractive than the non-fossil sumer awareness and voluntary reductions by fuels, especially nuclear power, which is projected to automakers. The Canadian government also has bud-begin to displace natural gas by 2025. The projection for geted $3.2 billion to $4.0 billion for purchases of carbon natural gas consumption in the Kyoto Protocol case is 2.8 credits, depending on the permit price [1].

quadrillion Btu higher than the reference case projection in 2010 and 1.7 quadrillion Btu in 2025, when non-fossil The Kyoto Protocol case projects that, at the 25-percent fuel use is projected to be 1.4 quadrillion Btu higher in domestic level, the marginal cost for emission reduc-the Kyoto Protocol case than in the reference case. tions from domestic sources in Canada will be around The projected penetration of renewable fuels in the $26 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in 2010 and, assum-energy markets of participating Annex I countries is ing that constraints are held constant after 2012, about lower in the Kyoto Protocol case than in the reference $36 per metric ton in 2025. Canadas energy demand in case, for a number of reasons. Electricity generation 2010 is projected to be 0.3 quadrillion Btu (1.8 percent) from nuclear power is 1.9 percent higher in the Kyoto lower in the Kyoto Protocol case than in the IEO2005 ref-Protocol case than in the reference case in 2010 and 12.5 erence case, and its energy-related carbon dioxide emis-percent higher in 2025; and total energy use is 1.8 per- sions in 2010 are projected to be 59 million metric tons cent lower in 2010 and 1.7 percent lower in 2025. As a (8.7 percent) lower (Table 13). In 2025, its projected result, even though generation from non-fossil fuels energy demand is 0.5 quadrillion Btu below the refer-makes up a larger share of total energy consumption in ence case level (assuming that the Kyoto goals for Can-the Kyoto Protocol case than in the reference case, ada will not change over the forecast period), and its renewable generation is lower. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 91 million metric tons lower than in the reference case.

Regional Projections Canadas coal consumption and associated carbon diox-Canada ide emissions are projected to be about 41 percent lower Canada is the only Annex I country in North America in 2010 and 55 percent lower in 2025 in the Kyoto Proto-that has ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Its goal is to reduce col case than in the reference case. Emissions associated carbon dioxide emissions to 6 percent below 1990 levels, with oil consumption are projected to be about the same to a total of about 444 million metric tons in 2010, or in the two cases in 2025, and emissions from natural gas 35 percent below the IEO2005 reference case projection use are projected to be 5.2 percent higher in 2010 and of 681 million metric tons. As indicated above, it is 11.6 percent higher in 2025. Canadas consumption of assumed that 59.3 million metric tons (25 percent) of the non-fossil energy in 2025 is projected to be 0.9 percent Table 12. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Participating Annex I Countries in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons) 2010 2025 2010 2025 Kyoto Kyoto Kyoto Kyoto Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Fuel Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Oil . . . . . . . . . . 58.1 56.8 63.2 61.4 3,803 3,719 4,142 3,998 Natural Gas . . . 54.9 57.6 71.3 73.1 2,896 3,046 3,765 3,863 Coal . . . . . . . . . 27.0 22.1 26.7 21.9 2,504 2,036 2,472 1,943 Nuclear . . . . . . 17.3 17.7 18.3 20.6 Renewables . . . 14.4 14.4 17.8 16.9 Total . . . . . . . 171.7 168.6 197.3 193.8 9,203 8,801 10,386 9,793 Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

82 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

higher in the Kyoto Protocol case than in the reference metric tons from the reference case level, 50 percent of case. which (273 million metric tons) is assumed to be met through domestic programs.

Western Europe The countries of Western Europe have ratified the Kyoto The EU has developed its own plan for emissions trad-Protocol individually, and the EU has adopted a goal of ing in the 2005 to 2007 period, in preparation for the first reducing its member countries aggregate carbon diox- Kyoto commitment period in 2008. The EU Greenhouse ide emissions to 8 percent below their 1990 level, or to an Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) allocates emis-average of 3,123 million metric tons per year during the sions to more than 12,000 specific installations across 25 first commitment period. That goal, which is about 15 member countries and requires reductions or permits to percent below the 2010 projection in the IEO2005 refer- meet those allocated goals; however, there have been ence case, would require a reduction of 545 million some mixed messages coming out of the EU in the Market Mechanisms Under the Kyoto Protocol In order to help participating countries meet their However, CDM projects serve as a mitigating factor to goals, the Kyoto Protocol includes market mechanisms prevent the countries in possession of hot air credits that are designed to allow some flexibility in reaching from exercising monopoly power, since in many cases reduction targets. The three primary market mecha- CDM projects would offer the best alternative to emis-nisms are described below. sions trading after participating countries have met their domestic goals.

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): The CDM is designed to promote participation by emerging econo- Emissions Trading: This market mechanism allows mies in projects that lead to certified and verifiable emitters who are in an advantageous position with emissions reductions. It allows Annex I countries to regard to emissions reductions (as most of the EE/FSU invest in emissions reduction projects in non-Annex I countries currently are) to make further reductions countries and apply credits received for those projects below their target levels and sell the difference to emit-toward meeting their commitment goals. Currently, ters whose domestic reduction costs are relatively CDM reductions achieved between 2000 and 2012 may high. In theory, such trading would allow the neces-be used to meet requirements in the first commitment sary emission reduction to be achieved in the aggregate period, 2008 to 2012. at the lowest possible cost, regardless of where they take place. Indeed, Russia and Ukraine could in theory Several recent studies have estimated that the average meet all the required reductions of Annex B countries.c annual demand for CDM Certified Emissions Reduc- After domestic emissions reduction goals are achieved, tions (CERs) will be between 50 and 500 million metric the IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol case assumes that addi-tons, and that the cost of a CER will be between $5 and tional reductions will be achieved by emissions

$15 per metric ton.a Emission reductions in 2010 of 400 trading.

million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent would require annual investments of $10 billion. For refer- Joint Implementation (JI): This market mechanism is ence, annual foreign direct investment in emerging similar to the CDM, except that JI projects would economies between 1997 and 2002 averaged $140 bil- involve only the Annex B countries, and only reduc-lion,b and it is estimated that the emerging economies tions achieved during the 2008-2012 commitment will need a total of $192 billion annually in energy period may be used. Because the SAGE model aggre-investments between 2001 and 2010. gates all the Western European countries into one region, JI is implicit in the projections for Western Finally, CDM projects generally require a leadtime of 4 Europe. In contrast, because Canada and Japan are rep-to 5 years to begin receiving credits. Because of risks to resented as single regions in SAGE, each must achieve both the buyers and sellers of CERs derived from CDM its domestic goals (in the modeling process) independ-projects and the abundance of excess emissions cred- ently of JI projects. As with CDM projects, the IEO2005 itsso-called hot airthat could be sold interna- Kyoto Protocol case assumes that emissions trading tionally over the forecast period, the IEO2005 Kyoto will be the least-cost alternative to reductions once Protocol case does not explicitly include CDM projects. domestic goals are achieved.

aE. Haites, Estimating the Market Potential for the Clean Development Mechanism: Review of Models and Lessons Learned. Prepared for the World Bank Carbon Finance Business PCFplus Research Program, the International Energy Agency, and the International Emissions Trading Association (Washington DC: PCFplus Report 19, June 2004), p. v, web site www.iea.org/textbase/papers/2004/cdm.pdf.

bE. Haites, Estimating the Market Potential for the Clean Development Mechanism: Review of Models and Lessons Learned, p. iv.

cAnnex B countries are the mature market economies that are part of Annex I, excluding the transitional economies.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 83

months since the EU ETS was implemented. Earlier indi- associated with its coal use are projected to be 45 percent cations were that the EU wanted to meet its Kyoto goals lower. In 2025, however, when coal use in Western with a significant element of their [reduction] efforts Europe is projected to be 47 percent lower than in the ref-coming from domestic cuts [2], but recent analysis has erence case, coal-related emissions are projected to be 58 indicated that the cost of achieving domestic reductions percent lower, because technologies become available in in countries such as the United Kingdom may have been Western Europe by 2025 that will allow 90 percent of the underestimated [3]. carbon dioxide emissions associated with coal combus-tion to be captured and sequestered. Oil consumption The IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol case assumes that 50 per-and related emissions are projected to be about 5 percent cent of the emission reductions in Western Europe will lower in the Kyoto Protocol case in 2025; natural gas con-be based on domestic actions, and the cost projections sumption and associated emissions are projected to be are highly sensitive to that assumption. At the 50-almost 7 percent higher in 2025; and consumption of percent domestic reduction level, the cost of reducing non-fossil fuels is projected to be 2.4 percent higher than carbon dioxide emissions in the region is projected to be in the reference case in 2025.

$48 per metric ton in 2010, rising to $64 per metric ton in 2025. Western Europes total projected energy demand Japan is 2.2 quadrillion Btu lower in the Kyoto Protocol case Japans goal for reducing carbon dioxide emissions than in the reference case in 2010 and 2.8 quadrillion Btu under the Kyoto Protocol is estimated at 930 million lower in 2025 (Table 14). Energy-related carbon dioxide metric tons, or 6 percent below its 1990 emissions level.

emissions are projected to be 273 million metric tons That target represents a reduction of about 280 million lower than in the reference case in 2010 and 415 million metric tons or 23 percent from the IEO2005 reference metric tons lower in 2025.

case projection for 2010. If 25 percent of the goal is to be Western Europes coal consumption is projected to be 46 met domestically, energy-related carbon dioxide emis-percent lower in 2010 in the Kyoto Protocol case than in sions will have to be cut by 70.1 million metric tons from the reference case, and the carbon dioxide emissions the reference case projection in 2010, with the remaining Table 13. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Canada in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons) 2010 2025 2010 2025 Kyoto Kyoto Kyoto Kyoto Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Fuel Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Oil . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 4.9 5.5 5.5 306 305 344 341 Natural Gas . . . 4.0 4.2 4.8 5.4 210 220 253 282 Coal . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.1 2.3 1.0 166 97 210 93 Nuclear . . . . . . 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Renewables . . . 3.8 3.9 5.1 5.1 Total . . . . . . . 15.6 15.3 18.8 18.3 681 622 807 716 Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Table 14. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Western Europe in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons) 2010 2025 2010 2025 Kyoto Kyoto Kyoto Kyoto Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Fuel Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Oil . . . . . . . . . . 29.2 28.3 31.0 29.5 1,951 1,901 2,074 1,967 Natural Gas . . . 17.7 20.1 22.9 24.5 934 1,066 1,210 1,290 Coal . . . . . . . . . 8.2 4.5 6.9 3.6 783 428 661 281 Nuclear . . . . . . 9.0 9.3 7.8 9.0 Renewables . . . 6.1 5.9 7.4 6.6 Total . . . . . . . 70.2 68.0 76.1 73.3 3,668 3,395 3,952 3,537 Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

84 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

reduction of 210.4 million metric tons accomplished In March 2005, a proposed fossil fuel tax was stopped by through purchases of emissions permits. In the IEO2005 a government panel chaired by Prime Minister Junichiro Kyoto Protocol case, Japans domestic effort is projected Koizumi [4]. Currently, the Japanese plan calls for vol-to yield marginal costs of $49 per metric ton of carbon untary industry efforts as the cornerstone of the plan to dioxide in 2010 and $43 per metric ton in 2025. meet its goals in the first commitment period. A shrink-ing population is expected to help Japan meet its goals in Japans energy demand in 2010 is projected to be 0.8 later years.

quadrillion Btu lower in the Kyoto Protocol case than in the reference case (Table 15). Assuming that the coun- References trys goals for the first commitment period remain in place at the same level through 2025, its total energy 1. C. Holly, Canada Unveils Kyoto Compliance demand in 2025 is projected to be 0.5 quadrillion Btu Plan, The Energy Daily, Vol. 33, No. 74 (April 20, lower than in the reference case, and its energy-related 2005), pp. 1 and 4; and Government of Canada, Pro-carbon dioxide emissions are projected to be 70 million ject Green: Moving Forward on Climate Change metric tons lower than the reference case projection in (Ottawa, Canada, April 2005), web site www.

2010 and 78 million metric tons lower in 2025. climatechange.gc.ca/kyoto_commitments/

report_e.pdf.

Japans coal consumption is projected to be 7.5 percent

2. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate lower in 2025 in the Kyoto Protocol case than in the refer-Change, Parties to the Convention, web site ence case, with a smaller reduction (3.6 percent) pro-http://unfccc.int/parties_and_observers/parties/

jected for oil consumption relative to the reference case items/2352.php.

projection in 2025. Because natural gas is expected to be used as a substitute for coal in the short run to help Japan 3. World Markets Research Centre, UK Energy Prices reach its Kyoto goal, emissions associated with natural To Rise More Than Europe (September 16, 2004),

gas consumption are projected to be 4.1 percent higher web site www.worldmarketsanalysis.com.

in the Kyoto Protocol case than in the reference case in 4. A. Mollet, Policy Update: Japan, World Fuels 2010. Today (March 31, 2005), p. 2.

Table 15. Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel in Japan in Two Cases, 2010 and 2025 Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons) 2010 2025 2010 2025 Kyoto Kyoto Kyoto Kyoto Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Reference Protocol Fuel Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Oil . . . . . . . . . . 10.9 10.4 11.0 10.6 657 623 662 628 Natural Gas . . . 3.2 3.3 3.9 3.8 167 174 208 198 Coal . . . . . . . . . 4.3 3.8 4.1 3.8 386 343 372 338 Nuclear . . . . . . 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.4 Renewables . . . 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.6 Total . . . . . . . 22.9 22.1 24.7 24.2 1,211 1,141 1,242 1,164 Source: Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 85

Appendix A Reference Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

• World Population

Reference Case Projections Table A1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.9 115.2 117.7 134.2 143.6 152.9 162.1 1.4 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.6 96.3 98.0 110.6 117.6 125.1 132.4 1.3 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 12.8 13.1 15.6 16.9 17.8 18.8 1.6 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 6.1 6.6 8.0 9.1 10.0 10.9 2.2 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.9 68.0 67.4 70.2 72.2 73.4 76.1 0.5 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7 28.0 28.4 30.4 31.5 32.5 33.6 0.7 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 21.9 22.0 22.9 23.6 24.1 24.7 0.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.1 6.5 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.8 1.4 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 183.6 211.2 213.5 234.7 247.3 258.7 271.8 1.1 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 60.9 42.0 42.4 49.7 53.9 57.2 61.0 1.6 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.1 27.7 27.5 31.3 33.5 35.7 37.9 1.4 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.8 14.3 14.9 18.4 20.4 21.5 23.1 1.9 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3 11.4 11.2 13.3 14.5 15.6 16.7 1.7 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.2 53.4 53.6 63.0 68.4 72.8 77.7 1.6 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.5 84.7 88.4 133.6 155.8 176.3 196.7 3.5 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 40.9 43.2 73.1 86.1 97.7 109.2 4.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 13.8 14.0 19.6 22.7 26.0 29.3 3.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.0 8.4 10.6 11.8 12.7 13.5 2.1 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.7 21.9 22.9 30.3 35.1 39.9 44.6 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 20.9 22.0 28.7 32.4 35.6 38.9 2.5 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 12.5 12.7 16.7 19.3 21.4 23.4 2.7 Central and South America . . . . . 14.5 21.2 21.2 26.8 30.4 33.2 36.1 2.3 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.4 8.6 10.2 11.6 13.2 15.1 2.5 Other Central/South America . . . . 8.8 12.7 12.6 16.6 18.8 20.0 21.1 2.3 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.4 139.2 144.3 205.8 237.8 266.6 295.1 3.2 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348.2 403.9 411.5 503.5 553.5 598.1 644.6 2.0 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuels share of total generation in the exporting coun-try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 89

Appendix A Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.6 46.2 47.1 53.8 57.8 61.6 65.2 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 27.3 28.2 32.2 35.8 38.7 39.6 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 23.8 23.9 27.1 27.9 29.6 33.2 1.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.0 9.8 9.9 10.0 9.9 0.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.0 9.5 11.3 12.1 13.0 14.1 1.7 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.9 115.2 117.7 134.2 143.6 152.9 162.1 1.4 Western Europe Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.9 28.9 28.6 29.2 29.7 30.0 31.0 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 15.2 15.4 17.7 19.5 20.9 22.9 1.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 8.7 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.3 6.9 -1.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 9.1 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.4 7.8 -0.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.0 5.5 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.4 1.3 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.9 68.0 67.4 70.2 72.2 73.4 76.1 0.5 Mature Market Asia Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.8 13.9 14.1 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 4.0 4.0 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.7 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 6.5 6.8 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.6 0.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.0 1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.6 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7 28.0 28.4 30.4 31.5 32.5 33.6 0.7 Total Mature Market Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79.0 88.0 88.8 96.4 101.3 105.5 110.3 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.4 46.5 47.5 54.3 60.3 64.9 68.2 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.3 39.0 39.4 42.7 43.1 44.5 47.7 0.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.3 21.1 21.2 22.1 22.3 22.0 21.7 0.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6 16.5 16.6 19.1 20.3 21.8 23.8 1.6 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183.6 211.2 213.5 234.7 247.3 258.7 271.8 1.1 Transitional Economies Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.0 11.9 11.4 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.8 23.8 24.3 30.0 34.1 36.7 39.6 2.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 11.7 11.6 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.4 0.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.8 3.9 4.6 5.3 2.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 0.7 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.2 53.4 53.6 63.0 68.4 72.8 77.7 1.6 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 30.4 31.4 47.0 54.4 61.8 69.5 3.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 7.6 8.2 11.4 14.3 17.5 22.3 4.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.1 39.9 41.5 62.6 72.8 81.1 86.8 3.3 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.8 2.0 3.8 4.8 5.7 6.5 5.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 4.9 5.4 8.8 9.5 10.2 11.6 3.4 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.5 84.7 88.4 133.6 155.8 176.3 196.7 3.5 See notes at end of table.

90 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections Table A2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Emerging Economies (Continued)

Middle East Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 11.3 11.7 15.1 16.6 17.7 18.8 2.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 8.0 8.6 11.1 13.2 15.2 17.4 3.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 3.3 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 20.9 22.0 28.7 32.4 35.6 38.9 2.5 Africa Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.4 5.5 7.6 8.7 9.5 10.1 2.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.5 2.6 3.4 4.4 5.2 6.4 4.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.7 3.7 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.3 1.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.2 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 12.5 12.8 16.7 19.3 21.4 23.4 2.7 Central and South America Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 11.0 10.7 13.9 15.8 17.4 18.9 2.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.8 3.8 5.0 6.1 7.0 8.1 3.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 2.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 2.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.4 5.7 6.6 7.0 7.2 7.4 1.2 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.2 21.2 26.8 30.4 33.2 36.1 2.3 Total Emerging Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.1 58.1 59.2 83.6 95.5 106.3 117.4 3.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.8 21.9 23.3 30.9 37.9 45.0 54.2 3.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.4 45.6 47.1 69.8 80.4 89.1 95.0 3.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.2 2.3 4.3 5.5 6.3 7.1 5.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 11.5 12.4 17.3 18.6 19.8 21.5 2.4 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.4 139.2 144.3 205.8 237.8 266.6 295.1 3.2 Total World Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.0 158.0 159.4 193.1 210.6 226.6 243.4 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.0 92.2 95.2 115.2 132.4 146.6 162.1 2.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90.5 96.3 98.1 125.2 136.4 146.8 156.1 2.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 26.4 26.9 30.2 31.7 32.9 34.1 1.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.4 31.1 32.1 39.8 42.4 45.2 48.9 1.9 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348.2 403.9 411.5 503.5 553.5 598.1 644.6 2.0 Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuels share of total generation in the exporting coun-try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 91

Appendix A Table A3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Billion 2000 Dollars)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,478 11,774 11,997 15,567 18,142 21,055 24,285 3.1 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 9,891 10,075 13,084 15,216 17,634 20,292 3.1 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 929 961 1,211 1,378 1,527 1,675 2.4 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 681 955 962 1,272 1,548 1,893 2,318 3.9 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,246 9,314 9,416 11,044 12,255 13,563 14,958 2.0 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3,258 3,891 3,904 4,691 5,123 5,530 5,914 1.8 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,840 3,294 3,284 3,911 4,240 4,533 4,792 1.7 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 419 597 621 780 883 997 1,122 2.6 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . 18,982 24,980 25,317 31,302 35,519 40,148 45,157 2.5 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . 3,306 2,274 2,392 3,827 4,672 5,627 6,707 4.6 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,583 1,657 2,543 3,019 3,571 4,192 4.1 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,065 691 735 1,283 1,653 2,056 2,516 5.5 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 914 1,040 1,068 1,527 1,863 2,253 2,702 4.1 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . 4,220 3,314 3,460 5,354 6,535 7,880 9,409 4.4 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,108 12,456 13,196 21,467 27,953 35,723 45,110 5.5 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,807 5,087 5,494 9,716 13,003 16,919 21,699 6.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,684 3,021 3,160 5,031 6,524 8,430 10,807 5.5 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 619 662 988 1,209 1,399 1,592 3.9 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,282 3,728 3,880 5,732 7,216 8,975 11,012 4.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 945 1,365 1,431 2,113 2,594 3,147 3,789 4.3 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,075 1,387 1,434 2,044 2,476 2,968 3,533 4.0 Central and South America. . . . 1,744 2,400 2,388 3,168 3,870 4,717 5,753 3.9 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,344 1,370 1,783 2,170 2,638 3,209 3.8 Other Central/South America. . . 722 1,056 1,018 1,385 1,699 2,080 2,544 4.1 Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . 9,871 17,608 18,449 28,793 36,892 46,555 58,185 5.1 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,073 45,901 47,227 65,449 78,947 94,582 112,752 3.9 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: A. Heston, R. Summers, and B. Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1 (Center for International Comparisons at the Uni-versity of Pennsylvania, October 2002), web site http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt_index.php; Global Insight, Inc., World Overview, First Quarter 2005 (Lexington, MA, March 2005); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington DC, January 2005), Table A19.

92 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections Table A4. World Oil Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 23.7 23.8 27.2 29.2 31.1 32.9 1.4 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 19.6 19.7 22.5 24.2 25.8 27.3 1.4 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 1.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 1.8 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 14.0 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.9 0.3 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 0.3 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 0.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 39.1 44.1 43.9 47.7 50.1 52.2 54.6 1.0 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 4.3 4.1 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.5 1.3 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 1.3 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.3 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.7 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.0 5.7 5.5 6.3 6.7 7.2 7.6 1.4 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 14.7 15.1 22.7 26.3 29.8 33.6 3.5 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 4.9 5.2 9.2 10.7 12.3 14.2 4.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.9 3.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 1.3 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.5 5.6 7.9 9.2 10.4 11.6 3.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 5.5 5.7 7.3 8.0 8.6 9.2 2.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.7 Central and South America . . . . . 3.8 5.4 5.2 6.8 7.8 8.5 9.3 2.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.7 2.3 Other Central/South America . . . . 2.3 3.2 3.1 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.6 2.6 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 28.2 28.7 40.6 46.3 51.6 57.0 3.0 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 78.0 78.2 94.6 103.2 111.0 119.2 1.9 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 93

Appendix A Table A5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 26.6 27.4 31.3 34.8 37.6 38.6 1.5 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.2 23.0 25.6 28.3 30.4 30.9 1.3 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 2.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.0 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 14.9 15.0 17.3 19.0 20.4 22.4 1.8 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.8 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.1 5.4 1.6 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.8 1.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 35.2 45.2 46.2 52.8 58.7 63.1 66.4 1.6 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 25.0 20.8 21.3 25.6 29.0 31.0 33.3 2.0 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 14.4 14.6 16.2 17.9 19.5 20.7 1.5 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 6.4 6.8 9.4 11.1 11.6 12.6 2.7 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 2.7 2.6 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.8 3.5 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.1 23.5 23.9 29.6 33.6 36.2 39.1 2.2 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 7.2 7.8 10.6 13.3 16.3 20.7 4.3 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.2 2.6 3.4 4.2 6.5 7.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.8 5.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 3.7 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 4.6 4.9 5.4 6.8 8.2 9.5 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 7.6 8.3 10.6 12.6 14.5 16.6 3.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.3 2.4 3.1 4.1 4.9 6.0 4.0 Central and South America . . . . . 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.5 7.5 3.3 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 6.8 Other Central/South America . . . . 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.4 2.4 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 20.6 22.0 29.0 35.6 42.2 50.7 3.7 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 89.3 92.2 111.4 127.9 141.6 156.2 2.3 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

94 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections Table A6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Short Tons)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 972 1,144 1,152 1,326 1,375 1,457 1,629 1.5 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 904 1,060 1,066 1,227 1,271 1,351 1,505 1.5 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 70 72 78 80 81 99 1.4 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 15 14 21 24 25 25 2.6 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 894 572 573 544 514 486 459 -1.0 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 233 326 341 374 373 386 386 0.5 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 173 179 184 181 179 177 0.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 106 153 162 190 191 207 209 1.1 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 2,099 2,042 2,067 2,245 2,261 2,328 2,474 0.8 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 848 396 397 450 462 471 480 0.8 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462 242 229 283 293 292 288 1.0 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 154 168 167 169 179 192 0.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524 384 374 384 388 390 394 0.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,372 779 771 834 850 860 874 0.5 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,555 2,033 2,118 3,196 3,715 4,138 4,435 3.3 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,124 1,357 1,422 2,302 2,704 3,037 3,242 3.6 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 414 421 544 614 674 736 2.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 75 80 97 116 130 142 2.5 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 188 196 253 281 298 316 2.1 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 98 84 116 117 118 116 1.4 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 188 186 231 249 267 267 1.6 Central and South America . . . . . 27 34 36 48 52 56 59 2.2 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 22 22 30 33 36 41 2.7 Other Central/South America . . . . 10 12 14 18 20 20 18 1.2 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,799 2,353 2,424 3,592 4,134 4,579 4,878 3.1 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,270 5,174 5,262 6,670 7,245 7,767 8,226 2.0 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. To convert short tons to metric tons, divide each number in the table by 1.102.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 95

Appendix A Table A7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 850 860 937 953 957 952 0.4 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 769 780 813 826 830 830 0.3 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 73 71 114 117 117 112 2.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 8 9 10 10 10 10 0.2 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 703 870 876 864 854 802 752 -0.7 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 192 303 295 319 330 351 380 1.1 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 303 295 319 330 351 380 1.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 1,544 2,024 2,032 2,120 2,136 2,110 2,083 0.1 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 201 210 224 275 279 332 399 2.5 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 125 134 151 153 173 218 2.1 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 85 90 124 125 160 181 3.1 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 72 79 89 98 105 113 1.6 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 282 302 364 376 437 512 2.3 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 178 194 367 464 551 620 5.2 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 17 23 72 137 162 200 9.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 18 18 67 89 123 132 9.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 107 113 169 179 185 196 2.4 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 36 40 60 59 81 93 3.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 6 6 6 6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 11 12 13 14 15 15 0.9 Central and South America . . . . . 9 21 19 20 35 33 34 2.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 14 14 14 23 23 24 2.3 Other Central/South America . . . . 7 7 5 6 11 10 10 2.9 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 209 225 406 519 605 675 4.9 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,905 2,515 2,560 2,890 3,032 3,152 3,270 1.1 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

96 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections Table A8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.0 9.5 11.3 12.1 13.0 14.1 1.7 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 5.2 5.9 6.9 7.2 7.7 8.3 1.5 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.1 1.9 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.0 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.0 5.5 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.4 1.3 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.6 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 15.6 16.5 16.6 19.1 20.3 21.8 23.8 1.6 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.4 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.7 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.6 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 0.7 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 4.9 5.4 8.8 9.5 10.2 11.6 3.4 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.6 3.1 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.7 3.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 3.8 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.6 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.1 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 3.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.2 Central and South America . . . . . 3.9 5.4 5.7 6.6 7.0 7.2 7.4 1.2 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.0 1.2 Other Central/South America . . . . 1.7 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 1.2 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 11.5 12.4 17.3 18.6 19.8 21.5 2.4 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.4 31.1 32.1 39.8 42.4 45.2 48.9 1.9 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 97

Appendix A Table A9. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,369 4,247 4,328 5,193 5,693 6,208 6,741 1.9 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,827 3,554 3,651 4,272 4,643 5,043 5,470 1.8 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435 508 487 644 713 774 828 2.3 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 185 190 277 337 390 443 3.8 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,069 2,551 2,556 2,613 2,786 2,872 3,072 0.8 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 930 1,136 1,202 1,273 1,358 1,434 1,506 1.0 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 765 910 971 1,000 1,060 1,110 1,154 0.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 166 226 231 273 299 324 352 1.8 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 6,368 7,934 8,086 9,079 9,837 10,514 11,319 1.5 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,488 1,131 1,154 1,794 2,048 2,254 2,421 3.3 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 955 769 780 1,043 1,188 1,323 1,469 2.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533 363 374 750 860 932 951 4.1 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418 389 390 540 606 663 724 2.7 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,906 1,520 1,544 2,334 2,654 2,917 3,145 3.1 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,259 2,711 2,914 4,909 5,843 6,723 7,552 4.2 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551 1,302 1,457 2,801 3,327 3,816 4,260 4.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 509 510 773 961 1,150 1,340 4.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 247 267 381 436 480 520 2.9 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358 653 680 955 1,119 1,278 1,433 3.3 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 547 574 861 997 1,106 1,203 3.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286 410 422 622 755 867 980 3.7 Central and South America . . . . . 463 715 735 1,070 1,314 1,550 1,818 4.0 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 338 352 457 563 697 864 4.0 Other Central/South America . . . . 234 377 383 613 751 853 955 4.0 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,272 4,383 4,645 7,462 8,909 10,246 11,554 4.0 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,546 13,836 14,275 18,875 21,400 23,677 26,018 2.6 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

98 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections Table A10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,769 6,624 6,701 7,674 8,204 8,759 9,379 1.5 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,692 5,751 6,561 6,988 7,461 7,981 1.4 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473 573 588 681 726 757 807 1.4 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308 359 363 432 490 541 591 2.1 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,413 3,585 3,549 3,674 3,761 3,812 3,952 0.5 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 1,284 1,610 1,627 1,731 1,780 1,822 1,852 0.6 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 990 1,182 1,179 1,211 1,232 1,240 1,242 0.2 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 294 429 448 520 548 582 610 1.4 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 10,465 11,819 11,877 13,080 13,745 14,392 15,183 1.1 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 3,798 2,393 2,399 2,804 3,040 3,201 3,379 1.5 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,347 1,553 1,522 1,732 1,857 1,971 2,063 1.3 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,452 840 877 1,072 1,183 1,230 1,317 1.8 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,095 744 726 839 898 951 1,006 1.4 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,894 3,137 3,124 3,643 3,937 4,151 4,386 1.5 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,890 5,967 6,205 9,306 10,863 12,263 13,540 3.5 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,262 3,176 3,322 5,536 6,506 7,373 8,133 4.0 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583 1,009 1,025 1,369 1,581 1,786 1,994 2.9 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 431 451 549 623 676 723 2.1 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 811 1,351 1,407 1,853 2,154 2,428 2,689 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 845 1,311 1,361 1,761 1,975 2,163 2,352 2.4 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655 840 854 1,122 1,283 1,415 1,524 2.5 Central and South America . . . . . 711 998 988 1,289 1,480 1,639 1,806 2.7 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 343 342 433 502 583 679 3.0 Other Central/South America . . . . 461 655 646 856 979 1,056 1,128 2.5 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,101 9,116 9,408 13,478 15,602 17,480 19,222 3.2 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,460 24,072 24,409 30,201 33,284 36,023 38,790 2.0 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 99

Appendix A Table A11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Oil Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,639 2,983 2,987 3,426 3,688 3,931 4,164 1.5 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,458 2,457 2,826 3,037 3,239 3,436 1.5 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 268 274 306 323 334 344 1.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 258 256 295 328 358 385 1.8 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,739 1,933 1,911 1,951 1,985 2,003 2,074 0.4 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 768 808 796 821 841 852 862 0.3 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655 668 657 657 665 664 662 0.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 113 140 139 164 177 188 201 1.6 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 5,145 5,724 5,695 6,199 6,515 6,786 7,100 1.0 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,224 607 581 667 698 736 776 1.3 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 783 378 356 412 429 464 493 1.4 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 229 225 255 269 273 283 1.0 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 197 192 222 245 265 286 1.7 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,468 803 773 889 943 1,002 1,062 1.4 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,116 1,886 1,940 2,922 3,386 3,850 4,340 3.6 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 638 669 1,193 1,385 1,599 1,845 4.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 278 279 390 466 542 621 3.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 236 241 284 306 318 326 1.3 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468 733 751 1,055 1,229 1,392 1,548 3.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 781 804 1,037 1,140 1,220 1,297 2.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304 369 377 523 599 653 697 2.7 Central and South America . . . . . 541 729 712 926 1,053 1,155 1,259 2.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 281 275 322 356 407 465 2.3 Other Central/South America . . . . 330 448 437 604 697 748 794 2.6 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,529 3,764 3,834 5,408 6,178 6,878 7,594 3.0 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,142 10,292 10,302 12,496 13,635 14,665 15,756 1.9 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

100 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections Table A12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,423 1,470 1,691 1,880 2,033 2,083 1.5 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,189 1,227 1,380 1,523 1,639 1,665 1.3 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 157 160 210 234 251 253 2.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 77 83 102 123 142 165 3.0 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 803 812 934 1,029 1,104 1,210 1.8 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 133 209 209 234 268 280 300 1.6 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 150 147 167 187 200 208 1.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 44 59 62 67 81 80 92 1.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 1,854 2,436 2,491 2,859 3,177 3,416 3,594 1.6 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,352 1,119 1,147 1,376 1,561 1,668 1,791 2.0 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 768 776 865 954 1,036 1,105 1.5 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424 351 371 512 607 632 686 2.7 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 139 136 209 241 271 301 3.5 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,519 1,258 1,283 1,585 1,802 1,940 2,093 2.2 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 402 434 601 754 924 1,176 4.4 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 66 71 163 209 259 401 7.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 46 48 75 96 125 152 5.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 44 48 69 82 96 111 3.7 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 246 267 294 366 444 512 2.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 421 457 586 696 803 916 3.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 130 139 178 230 277 340 4.0 Central and South America . . . . . 116 202 203 265 321 370 428 3.3 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 22 26 57 87 111 140 7.6 Other Central/South America . . . . 110 181 177 208 234 260 288 2.1 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 569 1,156 1,232 1,630 2,001 2,375 2,860 3.7 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,942 4,849 5,006 6,074 6,980 7,731 8,547 2.4 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 101

Appendix A Table A13. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,214 2,247 2,537 2,616 2,774 3,110 1.4 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,042 2,070 2,335 2,407 2,561 2,858 1.4 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 148 154 166 169 172 210 1.4 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 24 23 36 39 41 42 2.6 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,160 849 825 783 740 699 661 -1.0 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 383 593 622 675 671 690 689 0.4 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 364 375 386 380 376 372 0.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 138 229 247 289 291 314 317 1.1 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 3,465 3,656 3,694 3,995 4,026 4,162 4,459 0.8 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,222 667 671 761 781 796 812 0.8 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 635 408 390 456 473 471 465 0.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587 260 281 304 308 325 347 0.9 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 685 409 397 408 412 414 419 0.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,907 1,076 1,068 1,169 1,193 1,210 1,231 0.6 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,607 3,679 3,831 5,784 6,724 7,488 8,024 3.3 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 2,472 2,582 4,181 4,911 5,514 5,887 3.6 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 684 698 903 1,019 1,119 1,222 2.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 152 161 196 235 263 286 2.5 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 371 389 504 559 592 629 2.1 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 110 100 138 140 140 139 1.4 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 340 338 421 453 485 486 1.6 Central and South America . . . . . 54 66 73 98 106 114 120 2.2 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 40 41 54 59 66 74 2.6 Other Central/South America . . . . 20 26 32 44 47 48 46 1.6 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,003 4,196 4,342 6,441 7,423 8,227 8,768 3.1 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,375 8,928 9,105 11,604 12,642 13,600 14,458 2.0 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

102 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections Table A14. World Population by Region, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Millions)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364 417 423 457 477 497 517 0.9 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253 286 289 310 324 337 351 0.9 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 31 31 33 34 35 36 0.6 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 100 103 113 120 125 130 1.0 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376 391 392 396 397 397 397 0.1 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 144 150 151 153 153 152 151 0.0 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 127 127 128 127 126 123 -0.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 20 23 24 25 26 27 28 0.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 884 959 966 1,006 1,028 1,047 1,065 0.4 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 290 289 288 283 280 277 272 -0.2 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 145 144 138 133 129 124 -0.6 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 144 144 145 147 148 148 0.1 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 121 121 119 118 117 115 -0.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 412 410 408 402 398 393 387 -0.2 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,791 3,288 3,355 3,658 3,850 4,022 4,168 0.9 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,155 1,285 1,300 1,365 1,402 1,429 1,445 0.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 846 1,033 1,059 1,174 1,246 1,312 1,369 1.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 47 48 49 50 50 50 0.2 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 746 923 949 1,071 1,152 1,230 1,304 1.4 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 247 255 294 322 349 375 1.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 622 814 844 984 1,085 1,188 1,292 1.9 Central and South America . . . . . 358 428 437 481 509 534 557 1.1 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 174 178 193 202 210 216 0.9 Other Central/South America . . . . 210 254 260 288 307 324 341 1.2 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,965 4,777 4,891 5,418 5,765 6,092 6,392 1.2 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,261 6,145 6,266 6,825 7,191 7,533 7,844 1.0 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: United States: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/. Other Countries: United Nations, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: 2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects (New York, NY, July 11, 2003).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 103

Appendix B High Economic Growth Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

High Economic Growth Case Projections Table B1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.9 115.2 117.7 138.4 150.0 160.8 173.0 1.7 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.6 96.3 98.0 114.2 123.1 131.5 141.4 1.6 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 12.8 13.1 16.0 17.6 18.7 20.0 1.9 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 6.1 6.6 8.2 9.4 10.5 11.7 2.5 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.9 68.0 67.4 71.5 74.3 76.9 80.7 0.8 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7 28.0 28.4 31.0 32.6 34.0 35.6 1.0 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 21.9 22.0 23.4 24.4 25.2 26.1 0.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.1 6.5 7.6 8.2 8.8 9.5 1.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 183.6 211.2 213.5 241.0 256.9 271.7 289.3 1.3 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 60.9 42.0 42.4 51.7 57.5 62.1 67.3 2.0 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.1 27.7 27.5 32.7 35.9 38.9 41.8 1.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.8 14.3 14.9 19.0 21.5 23.2 25.5 2.4 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3 11.4 11.2 13.8 15.4 16.9 18.5 2.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.2 53.4 53.6 65.5 72.8 79.0 85.8 2.1 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.5 84.7 88.4 139.8 167.4 194.7 223.2 4.1 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 40.9 43.2 76.3 92.2 107.6 123.5 4.7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 13.8 14.0 20.3 24.1 28.2 32.5 3.7 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.0 8.4 11.2 12.8 14.2 15.5 2.7 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.7 21.9 22.9 31.9 38.3 44.8 51.5 3.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 20.9 22.0 30.1 34.9 39.3 44.1 3.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 12.5 12.7 17.4 20.6 23.4 26.1 3.2 Central and South America . . . . . 14.5 21.2 21.2 28.1 32.4 35.7 39.6 2.8 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.4 8.6 10.6 12.2 14.0 16.2 2.8 Other Central/South America . . . . 8.8 12.7 12.6 17.5 20.2 21.7 23.5 2.7 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.4 139.2 144.3 215.3 255.2 293.0 333.0 3.7 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348.2 403.9 411.5 521.7 585.0 643.7 708.1 2.4 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuels share of total generation in the exporting coun-try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 107

Appendix B Table B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.6 46.2 47.1 56.6 61.5 66.3 71.2 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 27.3 28.2 33.0 37.6 39.7 41.0 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 23.8 23.9 27.5 28.5 31.1 35.9 1.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.0 9.8 9.9 10.0 9.9 0.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.0 9.5 11.5 12.4 13.6 15.0 2.0 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.9 115.2 117.7 138.4 150.0 160.8 173.0 1.7 Western Europe Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.9 28.9 28.6 29.8 30.8 31.5 32.9 0.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 15.2 15.4 18.3 20.2 22.4 25.1 2.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 8.7 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.1 -0.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 9.1 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.4 7.8 -0.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.0 5.5 6.3 6.6 7.2 7.9 1.6 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.9 68.0 67.4 71.5 74.3 76.9 80.7 0.8 Mature Market Asia Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 13.0 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.5 14.8 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 4.0 4.0 4.6 5.4 5.7 6.1 1.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 6.5 6.8 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.3 0.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.0 1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7 28.0 28.4 31.0 32.6 34.0 35.6 1.0 Total Mature Market Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79.0 88.0 88.8 100.1 106.5 112.4 118.9 1.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.4 46.5 47.5 55.9 63.3 67.8 72.2 1.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.3 39.0 39.4 43.3 43.8 46.4 51.2 1.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.3 21.1 21.2 22.1 22.3 22.0 21.7 0.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6 16.5 16.6 19.6 21.0 23.1 25.4 1.9 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183.6 211.2 213.5 241.0 256.9 271.7 289.3 1.3 Transitional Economies Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.0 11.9 11.4 13.7 14.9 16.3 17.7 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.8 23.8 24.3 31.6 37.1 40.8 44.9 2.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 11.7 11.6 12.9 13.4 13.7 14.2 0.9 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.8 3.9 4.6 5.3 2.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 0.7 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.2 53.4 53.6 65.5 72.8 79.0 85.8 2.1 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 30.4 31.4 49.2 58.8 68.4 79.2 4.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 7.6 8.2 12.5 16.8 21.2 27.6 5.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.1 39.9 41.5 65.4 77.5 88.6 97.5 3.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.8 2.0 3.8 4.8 5.7 6.5 5.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 4.9 5.4 8.8 9.5 10.7 12.4 3.7 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.5 84.7 88.4 139.8 167.4 194.7 223.2 4.1 See notes at end of table.

108 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

High Economic Growth Case Projections Table B2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Emerging Economies (Continued)

Middle East Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 11.3 11.7 15.7 17.9 19.7 21.6 2.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 8.0 8.6 11.8 14.3 16.8 19.7 3.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 3.3 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 20.9 22.0 30.1 34.9 39.3 44.1 3.1 Africa Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.4 5.5 7.9 9.3 10.4 11.3 3.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.5 2.6 3.6 4.8 5.8 7.4 4.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.7 3.7 4.7 5.2 5.8 5.8 2.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.4 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 12.5 12.8 17.4 20.6 23.4 26.1 3.2 Central and South America Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 11.0 10.7 14.6 17.1 19.0 21.3 3.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.8 3.8 5.0 6.3 7.0 8.4 3.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 4.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 2.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.4 5.7 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.6 1.3 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.2 21.2 28.1 32.4 35.7 39.6 2.8 Total Emerging Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.1 58.1 59.2 87.5 103.1 117.6 133.4 3.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.8 21.9 23.3 32.9 42.1 50.9 63.1 4.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.4 45.6 47.1 73.0 85.8 97.8 106.9 3.6 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.2 2.3 4.2 5.4 6.3 7.0 5.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 11.5 12.4 17.5 18.8 20.5 22.5 2.6 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.4 139.2 144.3 215.3 255.2 293.0 333.0 3.7 Total World Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.0 158.0 159.4 201.3 224.5 246.2 270.0 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.0 92.2 95.2 120.5 142.5 159.5 180.2 2.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90.5 96.3 98.1 129.3 143.0 157.9 172.3 2.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 26.4 26.9 30.1 31.6 32.9 34.1 1.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.4 31.1 32.1 40.5 43.3 47.2 51.6 2.1 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348.2 403.9 411.5 521.7 585.0 643.7 708.1 2.4 Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuels share of total generation in the exporting coun-try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 109

Appendix B Table B3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion 2000 Dollars)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,478 11,774 11,997 16,311 19,353 22,784 26,977 3.6 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 9,891 10,075 13,740 16,260 19,089 22,570 3.6 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 929 961 1,255 1,459 1,654 1,856 2.9 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 681 955 962 1,316 1,635 2,041 2,550 4.3 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,246 9,314 9,416 11,456 13,001 14,717 16,602 2.5 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3,258 3,891 3,904 4,865 5,436 6,005 6,573 2.3 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,840 3,294 3,284 4,057 4,500 4,925 5,331 2.1 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 419 597 621 808 935 1,080 1,242 3.1 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . 18,982 24,980 25,317 32,632 37,790 43,507 50,152 3.0 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . 3,306 2,274 2,392 4,205 5,459 6,997 8,881 5.9 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,583 1,657 2,712 3,357 4,143 5,074 5.0 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,065 691 735 1,493 2,102 2,854 3,807 7.4 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 914 1,040 1,068 1,632 2,074 2,613 3,268 5.0 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . 4,220 3,314 3,460 5,837 7,533 9,610 12,149 5.6 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,108 12,456 13,196 22,841 30,905 41,069 53,951 6.3 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,807 5,087 5,494 10,313 14,327 19,372 25,834 7.0 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,684 3,021 3,160 5,357 7,221 9,698 12,928 6.3 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 619 662 1,054 1,344 1,623 1,929 4.8 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,282 3,728 3,880 6,118 8,014 10,375 13,260 5.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 945 1,365 1,431 2,256 2,884 3,646 4,575 5.2 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,075 1,387 1,434 2,184 2,757 3,445 4,277 4.9 Central and South America. . . . 1,744 2,400 2,388 3,393 4,317 5,483 6,966 4.8 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,344 1,370 1,911 2,423 3,069 3,889 4.6 Other Central/South America. . . 722 1,056 1,018 1,482 1,894 2,414 3,077 4.9 Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . 9,871 17,608 18,449 30,674 40,863 53,643 69,770 6.0 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,073 45,901 47,227 69,144 86,186 106,760 132,071 4.6 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: A. Heston, R. Summers, and B. Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1 (Center for International Comparisons at the Uni-versity of Pennsylvania, October 2002), web site http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt_index.php; Global Insight, Inc., World Overview, First Quarter 2005 (Lexington, MA, March 2005); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/.

110 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

High Economic Growth Case Projections Table B4. World Oil Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 23.7 23.8 28.5 31.1 33.5 36.0 1.8 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 19.6 19.7 23.8 25.8 27.9 30.0 1.8 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.2 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 2.1 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 14.0 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.9 0.6 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.1 0.5 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 0.2 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 39.1 44.1 43.9 49.5 52.8 55.7 59.0 1.3 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 4.3 4.1 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.2 1.8 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 1.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.8 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.3 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.0 5.7 5.5 6.6 7.2 7.9 8.6 1.9 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 14.7 15.1 23.8 28.4 33.1 38.3 4.1 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 4.9 5.2 9.6 11.4 13.5 16.1 5.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.2 2.2 3.2 3.9 4.6 5.4 4.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 1.9 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.5 5.6 8.4 10.1 11.7 13.4 3.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 5.5 5.7 7.6 8.7 9.6 10.5 2.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.9 4.6 5.1 5.5 3.2 Central and South America . . . . . 3.8 5.4 5.2 7.2 8.4 9.3 10.4 3.0 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.5 4.1 2.8 Other Central/South America . . . . 2.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 5.4 5.8 6.3 3.2 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 28.2 28.7 42.5 50.0 57.0 64.7 3.6 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 78.0 78.2 98.6 110.0 120.6 132.3 2.3 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 111

Appendix B Table B5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 26.6 27.4 32.1 36.6 38.6 39.9 1.6 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.2 23.0 26.3 29.8 31.2 31.7 1.4 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.9 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.9 2.2 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.4 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 14.9 15.0 17.8 19.8 21.9 24.5 2.2 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.8 3.8 4.4 5.2 5.5 5.9 1.9 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.2 2.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 35.2 45.2 46.2 54.4 61.5 66.0 70.2 1.8 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 25.0 20.8 21.3 26.9 31.5 34.4 37.6 2.5 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 14.4 14.6 17.1 19.4 21.6 23.4 2.1 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 6.4 6.8 9.9 12.1 12.8 14.2 3.3 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 2.7 2.6 4.2 5.1 5.8 6.7 4.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.1 23.5 23.9 31.2 36.6 40.2 44.2 2.7 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 7.2 7.8 11.7 15.7 19.8 25.5 5.3 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.2 3.1 4.5 5.8 9.0 9.3 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.3 5.9 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 4.2 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 4.6 4.9 5.9 7.7 9.5 11.1 3.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 7.6 8.3 11.2 13.6 16.0 18.8 3.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.3 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.4 6.9 4.6 Central and South America . . . . . 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.6 5.8 6.5 7.8 3.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.2 7.0 Other Central/South America . . . . 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.6 2.6 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 20.6 22.0 30.9 39.5 47.7 59.0 4.4 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 89.3 92.2 116.5 137.6 153.9 173.4 2.8 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

112 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

High Economic Growth Case Projections Table B6. World Coal Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Short Tons)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 972 1,144 1,152 1,347 1,403 1,524 1,756 1.8 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 904 1,060 1,066 1,246 1,297 1,405 1,617 1.8 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 70 72 79 81 94 113 2.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 15 14 22 24 25 26 2.7 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 894 572 573 546 518 491 468 -0.9 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 233 326 341 380 378 404 424 1.0 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 173 179 186 184 183 188 0.2 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 106 153 162 194 195 220 236 1.6 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 2,099 2,042 2,067 2,273 2,299 2,418 2,648 1.1 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 848 396 397 460 479 493 510 1.1 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462 242 229 289 304 306 306 1.3 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 154 168 171 175 188 204 0.9 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524 384 374 389 397 405 417 0.5 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,372 779 771 850 876 898 928 0.8 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,555 2,033 2,118 3,339 3,954 4,519 4,974 3.8 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,124 1,357 1,422 2,402 2,876 3,325 3,636 4.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 414 421 566 647 714 805 2.9 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 75 80 110 136 160 183 3.7 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 188 196 261 295 321 350 2.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 98 84 119 123 125 126 1.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 188 186 234 260 288 291 2.0 Central and South America . . . . . 27 34 36 65 71 84 90 4.1 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 22 22 40 43 53 61 4.5 Other Central/South America . . . . 10 12 14 26 28 30 29 3.3 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,799 2,353 2,424 3,757 4,407 5,017 5,481 3.6 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,270 5,174 5,262 6,880 7,582 8,333 9,057 2.4 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. To convert short tons to metric tons, divide each number in the table by 1.102.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 113

Appendix B Table B7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 850 860 937 953 957 952 0.4 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 769 780 813 826 830 830 0.3 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 73 71 114 117 117 112 2.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 8 9 10 10 10 10 0.2 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 703 870 876 864 854 802 752 -0.7 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 192 303 295 319 330 351 380 1.1 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 303 295 319 330 351 380 1.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 1,544 2,024 2,032 2,120 2,136 2,110 2,083 0.1 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 201 210 224 275 279 332 399 2.5 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 125 134 151 153 173 218 2.1 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 85 90 124 125 160 181 3.1 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 72 79 89 98 105 113 1.6 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 282 302 364 376 437 512 2.3 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 178 194 367 464 551 620 5.2 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 17 23 72 137 162 200 9.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 18 18 67 89 123 132 9.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 107 113 169 179 185 196 2.4 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 36 40 60 59 81 93 3.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 6 6 6 6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 11 12 13 14 15 15 0.9 Central and South America . . . . . 9 21 19 20 35 33 34 2.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 14 14 14 23 23 24 2.3 Other Central/South America . . . . 7 7 5 6 11 10 10 2.9 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 209 225 406 519 605 675 4.9 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,905 2,515 2,560 2,890 3,032 3,152 3,270 1.1 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

114 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

High Economic Growth Case Projections Table B8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.0 9.5 11.5 12.4 13.6 15.0 2.0 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 5.2 5.9 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.9 1.8 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.4 2.2 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.2 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.0 5.5 6.3 6.6 7.2 7.9 1.6 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.4 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 15.6 16.5 16.6 19.6 21.0 23.1 25.4 1.9 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.4 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.7 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.9 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 0.7 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 4.9 5.4 8.8 9.5 10.7 12.4 3.7 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.6 3.1 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.7 3.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.0 4.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.6 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.6 3.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 3.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.4 Central and South America . . . . . 3.9 5.4 5.7 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.6 1.3 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.1 1.3 Other Central/South America . . . . 1.7 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 1.3 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 11.5 12.4 17.5 18.8 20.5 22.5 2.6 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.4 31.1 32.1 40.5 43.3 47.2 51.6 2.1 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 115

Appendix B Table B9. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,369 4,247 4,328 5,314 5,906 6,500 7,172 2.2 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,827 3,554 3,651 4,364 4,803 5,254 5,785 2.0 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435 508 487 666 750 831 907 2.7 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 185 190 285 353 416 479 4.1 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,069 2,551 2,556 2,676 2,858 3,076 3,366 1.2 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 930 1,136 1,202 1,307 1,417 1,518 1,622 1.3 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 765 910 971 1,026 1,103 1,171 1,237 1.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 166 226 231 281 314 347 385 2.2 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 6,368 7,934 8,086 9,297 10,181 11,095 12,159 1.8 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,488 1,131 1,154 1,904 2,246 2,542 2,788 3.9 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 955 769 780 1,043 1,188 1,323 1,469 2.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533 363 374 861 1,058 1,219 1,319 5.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418 389 390 566 652 733 820 3.3 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,906 1,520 1,544 2,469 2,899 3,275 3,609 3.8 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,259 2,711 2,914 5,152 6,304 7,443 8,588 4.8 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551 1,302 1,457 2,938 3,589 4,222 4,833 5.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 509 510 807 1,028 1,259 1,504 4.8 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 247 267 400 473 539 605 3.6 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358 653 680 1,006 1,213 1,423 1,646 3.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 547 574 907 1,080 1,231 1,375 3.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286 410 422 661 829 983 1,143 4.4 Central and South America . . . . . 463 715 735 1,134 1,456 1,704 1,997 4.4 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 338 352 457 563 697 864 4.0 Other Central/South America . . . . 234 377 383 677 893 1,007 1,133 4.8 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,272 4,383 4,645 7,852 9,669 11,361 13,102 4.6 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,546 13,836 14,275 19,619 22,749 25,731 28,870 3.1 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

116 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

High Economic Growth Case Projections Table B10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,769 6,624 6,701 7,925 8,579 9,236 10,062 1.8 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,692 5,751 6,783 7,308 7,856 8,561 1.7 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473 573 588 700 761 809 866 1.7 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308 359 363 442 510 572 635 2.5 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,413 3,585 3,549 3,862 3,952 4,007 4,152 0.7 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 1,284 1,610 1,627 1,768 1,836 1,910 1,983 0.9 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 990 1,182 1,179 1,236 1,270 1,294 1,319 0.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 294 429 448 532 566 616 663 1.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 10,465 11,819 11,877 13,555 14,367 15,153 16,197 1.4 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 3,798 2,393 2,399 2,924 3,253 3,494 3,758 2.0 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,347 1,553 1,522 1,830 2,012 2,166 2,304 1.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,452 840 877 1,094 1,241 1,328 1,454 2.2 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,095 744 726 868 950 1,029 1,119 1.9 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,894 3,137 3,124 3,793 4,203 4,523 4,876 2.0 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,890 5,967 6,205 9,754 11,689 13,554 15,389 4.0 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,262 3,176 3,322 5,796 6,982 8,145 9,238 4.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583 1,009 1,025 1,424 1,679 1,927 2,209 3.4 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 431 451 576 675 761 846 2.8 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 811 1,351 1,407 1,958 2,353 2,721 3,095 3.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 845 1,311 1,361 1,846 2,132 2,392 2,674 3.0 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655 840 854 1,163 1,368 1,548 1,701 3.0 Central and South America . . . . . 711 998 988 1,370 1,610 1,806 2,042 3.2 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 343 342 459 539 637 758 3.5 Other Central/South America . . . . 461 655 646 910 1,071 1,168 1,284 3.0 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,101 9,116 9,408 14,132 16,799 19,299 21,806 3.7 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,460 24,072 24,409 31,480 35,369 38,976 42,879 2.5 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Appendix B Table B11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Oil Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,639 2,983 2,987 3,594 3,912 4,221 4,530 1.8 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,458 2,457 2,975 3,225 3,490 3,755 1.9 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 268 274 317 345 353 363 1.2 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 258 256 302 342 379 412 2.1 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,739 1,933 1,911 1,987 2,055 2,106 2,195 0.6 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 768 808 796 838 867 888 905 0.6 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655 668 657 670 684 691 692 0.2 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 113 140 139 168 183 197 213 1.9 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 5,145 5,724 5,695 6,420 6,835 7,215 7,630 1.3 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,224 607 581 698 749 811 876 1.8 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 783 378 356 428 459 497 537 1.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 229 225 270 290 314 339 1.8 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 197 192 232 263 293 325 2.3 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,468 803 773 931 1,012 1,104 1,200 1.9 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,116 1,886 1,940 3,062 3,659 4,266 4,947 4.2 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 638 669 1,242 1,485 1,754 2,086 5.1 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 278 279 406 496 591 692 4.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 236 241 296 328 351 371 1.9 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468 733 751 1,118 1,349 1,571 1,798 3.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 781 804 1,083 1,232 1,357 1,484 2.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304 369 377 547 644 716 781 3.2 Central and South America . . . . . 541 729 712 972 1,136 1,266 1,414 3.0 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 281 275 338 384 446 522 2.8 Other Central/South America . . . . 330 448 437 634 752 820 892 3.2 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,529 3,764 3,834 5,664 6,670 7,605 8,626 3.6 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,142 10,292 10,302 13,015 14,517 15,924 17,457 2.3 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

118 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

High Economic Growth Case Projections Table B12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,423 1,446 1,735 1,976 2,087 2,153 1.7 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,189 1,203 1,415 1,604 1,680 1,709 1.5 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 157 160 215 243 255 264 2.2 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 77 83 104 128 151 180 3.4 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 803 812 964 1,068 1,183 1,325 2.2 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 133 209 209 245 287 303 324 1.9 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 150 147 176 201 219 232 2.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 44 59 62 70 87 84 92 1.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 1,854 2,436 2,467 2,944 3,331 3,572 3,801 1.9 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,352 1,119 1,147 1,447 1,694 1,849 2,018 2.5 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 768 776 909 1,036 1,149 1,245 2.1 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424 351 371 538 658 700 773 3.2 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 139 136 222 265 306 351 4.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,519 1,258 1,283 1,670 1,959 2,155 2,369 2.7 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 402 434 648 871 1,103 1,437 5.3 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 66 71 193 275 353 549 9.3 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 46 48 78 109 150 182 5.9 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 44 48 58 72 88 106 3.5 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 246 267 320 416 512 600 3.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 421 457 621 754 886 1,040 3.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 130 139 191 252 308 390 4.6 Central and South America . . . . . 116 202 203 265 331 370 445 3.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 22 26 48 75 93 122 7.0 Other Central/South America . . . . 110 181 177 217 255 277 323 2.6 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 569 1,156 1,232 1,725 2,208 2,667 3,312 4.4 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,942 4,849 4,982 6,338 7,499 8,395 9,483 2.8 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 119

Appendix B Table B13. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,214 2,247 2,576 2,670 2,907 3,357 1.8 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,042 2,070 2,372 2,458 2,664 3,075 1.7 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 148 154 168 173 201 240 2.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 24 23 36 40 42 43 2.7 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,160 849 825 786 745 706 673 -0.9 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 383 593 622 685 681 719 754 0.8 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 364 375 391 385 384 395 0.2 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 138 229 247 294 296 335 359 1.6 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 3,465 3,656 3,694 4,047 4,096 4,332 4,784 1.1 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,222 667 671 779 810 834 863 1.1 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 635 408 390 492 517 521 521 1.3 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587 260 281 286 292 314 342 0.9 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 685 409 397 414 422 430 443 0.5 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,907 1,076 1,068 1,192 1,232 1,264 1,306 0.9 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,607 3,679 3,831 6,044 7,159 8,184 9,005 3.8 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 2,472 2,582 4,362 5,222 6,038 6,604 4.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 684 698 939 1,073 1,186 1,335 2.9 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 152 161 222 275 323 369 3.7 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 371 389 519 588 638 697 2.6 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 110 100 142 146 149 150 1.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 340 338 425 472 525 530 2.0 Central and South America . . . . . 54 66 73 133 143 170 183 4.1 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 40 41 73 80 98 113 4.5 Other Central/South America . . . . 20 26 32 60 64 71 70 3.4 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,003 4,196 4,342 6,743 7,921 9,028 9,868 3.6 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,375 8,928 9,105 11,983 13,248 14,624 15,958 2.5 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), high economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run HM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

120 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Appendix C Low Economic Growth Case Projections:

• World Energy Consumption

• Gross Domestic Product

• Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Low Economic Growth Case Projections Table C1. World Total Primary Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.9 115.2 117.7 131.7 139.1 146.3 152.8 1.1 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.6 96.3 98.0 108.6 114.0 119.7 124.9 1.1 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 12.8 13.1 15.3 16.4 17.1 17.6 1.3 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 6.1 6.6 7.8 8.7 9.5 10.3 1.9 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.9 68.0 67.4 69.0 70.2 70.6 72.2 0.3 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7 28.0 28.4 29.8 30.5 31.0 31.5 0.5 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 21.9 22.0 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.2 0.2 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.1 6.5 7.3 7.7 8.0 8.3 1.1 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 183.6 211.2 213.5 230.5 239.8 247.9 256.5 0.8 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 60.9 42.0 42.4 47.8 50.7 52.8 55.6 1.2 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.1 27.7 27.5 30.3 31.8 33.1 34.6 1.0 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.8 14.3 14.9 17.5 18.9 19.7 21.0 1.5 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3 11.4 11.2 12.8 13.6 14.3 15.0 1.3 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.2 53.4 53.6 60.7 64.4 67.1 70.6 1.2 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.5 84.7 88.4 127.8 144.2 158.4 172.8 3.0 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 40.9 43.2 69.7 79.6 87.7 96.2 3.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 13.8 14.0 18.9 21.5 24.0 26.4 2.8 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.0 8.4 10.3 11.1 11.5 11.9 1.5 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.7 21.9 22.9 28.9 32.0 35.2 38.3 2.3 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 20.9 22.0 27.2 29.7 31.9 34.0 1.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 12.5 12.7 16.1 18.1 19.6 21.1 2.2 Central and South America . . . . . 14.5 21.2 21.2 25.3 27.8 29.3 31.1 1.7 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 8.4 8.6 9.5 10.4 11.4 12.7 1.7 Other Central/South America . . . . 8.8 12.7 12.6 15.8 17.3 17.8 18.4 1.7 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.4 139.2 144.3 196.3 219.8 239.3 259.0 2.6 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348.2 403.9 411.5 487.5 523.9 554.2 586.1 1.5 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuels share of total generation in the exporting coun-try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 123

Appendix C Table C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.6 46.2 47.1 53.0 56.3 59.2 61.7 1.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2 27.3 28.2 31.1 33.8 36.2 37.5 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 23.8 23.9 26.8 27.5 28.5 30.6 1.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 8.9 9.0 9.8 9.9 10.0 9.9 0.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.0 9.5 11.0 11.5 12.3 13.1 1.4 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.9 115.2 117.7 131.7 139.1 146.3 152.8 1.1 Western Europe Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.9 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.6 29.2 0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 15.2 15.4 17.4 18.9 20.0 21.6 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 8.7 8.6 8.2 7.7 7.3 6.9 -1.0 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 9.1 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.4 7.8 -0.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.4 6.7 0.8 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.9 68.0 67.4 69.0 70.2 70.6 72.2 0.3 Mature Market Asia Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.2 13.2 0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.2 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 6.5 6.8 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 0.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.0 1.2 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.0 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7 28.0 28.4 29.8 30.5 31.0 31.5 0.5 Total Mature Market Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79.0 88.0 88.8 94.6 98.2 101.1 104.2 0.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.4 46.5 47.5 52.7 57.5 61.2 64.2 1.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.3 39.0 39.4 42.3 42.5 43.1 44.7 0.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.3 21.1 21.2 22.1 22.3 22.0 21.7 0.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6 16.5 16.6 18.7 19.3 20.5 21.7 1.2 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183.6 211.2 213.5 230.5 239.8 247.9 256.5 0.8 Transitional Economies Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.0 11.9 11.4 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.9 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.8 23.8 24.3 28.5 31.5 33.0 35.1 1.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.7 11.7 11.6 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 0.4 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.8 3.9 4.6 5.3 2.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 0.5 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.2 53.4 53.6 60.7 64.4 67.1 70.6 1.2 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 30.4 31.4 44.6 50.2 55.2 60.6 2.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 7.6 8.2 10.5 12.2 14.2 17.1 3.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.1 39.9 41.5 60.7 68.4 74.3 78.9 2.8 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.8 2.0 3.8 4.8 5.7 6.5 5.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 4.9 5.4 8.1 8.6 9.0 9.6 2.6 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.5 84.7 88.4 127.8 144.2 158.4 172.8 3.0 See notes at end of table.

124 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Low Economic Growth Case Projections Table C2. World Total Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Continued)

(Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Emerging Economies (Continued)

Middle East Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 11.3 11.7 14.1 15.0 15.6 16.2 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 8.0 8.6 10.6 12.2 13.8 15.3 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 3.2 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 20.9 22.0 27.2 29.7 31.9 34.0 1.9 Africa Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.4 5.5 7.3 8.1 8.6 9.0 2.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.5 2.6 3.1 4.0 4.8 5.7 3.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.7 3.7 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 1.2 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.1 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 12.5 12.8 16.1 18.1 19.6 21.1 2.2 Central and South America Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 11.0 10.7 12.8 14.0 14.9 15.9 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.8 3.8 4.8 5.6 6.3 7.1 2.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 2.4 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 5.4 5.7 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 0.7 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.5 21.2 21.2 25.3 27.8 29.3 31.1 1.7 Total Emerging Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.1 58.1 59.2 78.8 87.3 94.3 101.7 2.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.8 21.9 23.3 29.1 34.0 39.0 45.1 2.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.4 45.6 47.1 67.6 75.7 81.6 86.3 2.7 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 2.2 2.3 4.2 5.4 6.3 7.0 5.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 11.5 12.4 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.7 1.8 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.4 139.2 144.3 196.3 219.8 239.3 259.0 2.6 Total World Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136.0 158.0 159.4 185.9 198.4 208.8 219.8 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.0 92.2 95.2 110.4 123.0 133.2 144.5 1.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90.5 96.3 98.1 122.4 130.8 137.4 143.8 1.7 Nuclear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.3 26.4 26.9 30.1 31.6 32.9 34.1 1.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.4 31.1 32.1 38.7 40.1 41.9 43.9 1.4 Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348.2 403.9 411.5 487.5 523.9 554.2 586.1 1.5 Notes: Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuels share of total generation in the exporting coun-try.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 125

Appendix C Table C3. World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion 2000 Dollars)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,478 11,774 11,997 15,036 17,099 19,324 21,567 2.6 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,113 9,891 10,075 12,640 14,336 16,163 17,957 2.5 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 684 929 961 1,169 1,300 1,408 1,509 2.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 681 955 962 1,228 1,463 1,753 2,102 3.5 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,246 9,314 9,416 10,639 11,537 12,478 13,446 1.6 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . 3,258 3,891 3,904 4,520 4,822 5,084 5,309 1.3 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,840 3,294 3,284 3,768 3,990 4,165 4,298 1.2 Australia/New Zealand. . . . . . . . 419 597 621 752 832 920 1,011 2.1 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . 18,982 24,980 25,317 30,196 33,458 36,885 40,322 2.0 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . 3,306 2,274 2,392 3,465 3,963 4,466 4,978 3.2 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,241 1,583 1,657 2,298 2,550 2,819 3,091 2.7 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,065 691 735 1,167 1,413 1,647 1,887 4.2 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 914 1,040 1,068 1,426 1,667 1,930 2,217 3.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . 4,220 3,314 3,460 4,891 5,630 6,397 7,196 3.2 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,108 12,456 13,196 20,134 25,191 30,911 37,462 4.6 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,807 5,087 5,494 9,137 11,762 14,704 18,108 5.3 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,684 3,021 3,160 4,714 5,873 7,289 8,973 4.6 South Korea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 619 662 924 1,084 1,199 1,303 3.0 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,282 3,728 3,880 5,358 6,472 7,719 9,078 3.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 945 1,365 1,431 1,975 2,324 2,701 3,114 3.4 Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,075 1,387 1,434 1,909 2,214 2,541 2,896 3.1 Central and South America. . . . 1,744 2,400 2,388 2,951 3,454 4,034 4,714 3.0 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,022 1,344 1,370 1,660 1,936 2,254 2,626 2.9 Other Central/South America. . . 722 1,056 1,018 1,291 1,518 1,781 2,088 3.2 Total Emerging. . . . . . . . . . . . 9,871 17,608 18,449 26,969 33,183 40,188 48,186 4.3 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,073 45,901 47,227 62,056 72,271 83,469 95,703 3.1 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: A. Heston, R. Summers, and B. Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1 (Center for International Comparisons at the Uni-versity of Pennsylvania, October 2002), web site http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt_index.php; Global Insight, Inc., World Overview, First Quarter 2005 (Lexington, MA, March 2005); and Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/.

126 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Low Economic Growth Case Projections Table C4. World Oil Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5 23.7 23.8 26.7 28.4 29.8 31.1 1.2 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 19.6 19.7 22.2 23.5 24.8 25.9 1.2 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 0.7 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 1.5 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.5 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.8 14.1 0.1 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 0.1 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 -0.2 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 39.1 44.1 43.9 46.8 48.6 50.1 51.6 0.7 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 0.7 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 0.7 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.7 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.0 5.7 5.5 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 0.9 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 14.7 15.1 21.5 24.2 26.7 29.3 2.9 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 4.9 5.2 8.8 9.9 11.1 12.5 3.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.2 2.2 2.9 3.4 3.9 4.3 3.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.7 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.5 5.6 7.4 8.3 9.1 9.8 2.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 5.5 5.7 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 1.4 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.6 2.7 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.4 2.2 Central and South America . . . . . 3.8 5.4 5.2 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.8 1.7 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.1 1.5 Other Central/South America . . . . 2.3 3.2 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.7 1.9 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 28.2 28.7 38.2 42.3 45.8 49.4 2.4 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.5 78.0 78.2 91.1 97.2 102.3 107.7 1.4 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 127

Appendix C Table C5. World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Trillion Cubic Feet)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.5 26.6 27.4 30.3 32.9 35.2 36.5 1.2 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.2 22.2 23.0 24.7 26.7 28.4 29.3 1.1 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.4 1.8 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.7 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 14.9 15.0 17.0 18.4 19.5 21.0 1.5 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.8 4.9 1.2 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 1.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 35.2 45.2 46.2 51.3 55.9 59.5 62.5 1.3 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 25.0 20.8 21.3 24.4 26.9 28.0 29.7 1.5 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.3 14.4 14.6 15.4 16.6 17.6 18.5 1.0 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 6.4 6.8 8.9 10.3 10.5 11.2 2.2 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 2.7 2.6 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.9 2.8 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.1 23.5 23.9 28.1 31.0 32.5 34.6 1.6 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 7.2 7.8 9.9 11.4 13.3 16.0 3.2 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.6 3.0 4.0 5.6 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.3 4.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 3.1 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 4.6 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.8 8.0 2.1 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 7.6 8.3 10.1 11.6 13.1 14.6 2.5 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.4 5.3 3.4 Central and South America . . . . . 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.5 5.2 5.8 6.5 2.7 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 6.2 Other Central/South America . . . . 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.7 1.8 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 20.6 22.0 27.4 32.0 36.7 42.4 2.9 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73.4 89.3 92.2 106.8 118.9 128.7 139.5 1.8 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

128 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Low Economic Growth Case Projections Table C6. World Coal Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Short Tons)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 972 1,144 1,152 1,307 1,354 1,406 1,508 1.2 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 904 1,060 1,066 1,208 1,252 1,303 1,393 1.2 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 70 72 77 78 79 91 1.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 15 14 21 24 25 25 2.6 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 894 572 573 543 513 484 457 -1.0 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 233 326 341 371 368 368 364 0.3 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 173 179 184 180 176 174 -0.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 106 153 162 187 188 192 190 0.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 2,099 2,042 2,067 2,221 2,235 2,258 2,330 0.5 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 848 396 397 442 448 453 457 0.6 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462 242 229 278 284 280 274 0.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 154 168 164 164 172 183 0.4 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524 384 374 379 381 379 382 0.1 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,372 779 771 821 829 832 839 0.4 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,555 2,033 2,118 3,096 3,493 3,793 4,033 2.8 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,124 1,357 1,422 2,234 2,543 2,782 2,959 3.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 414 421 523 574 621 672 2.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 75 80 94 109 113 114 1.6 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 188 196 246 268 277 287 1.7 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 98 84 110 113 111 109 1.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 188 186 229 239 245 244 1.2 Central and South America . . . . . 27 34 36 43 46 48 51 1.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 22 22 26 28 31 35 2.0 Other Central/South America . . . . 10 12 14 17 18 18 16 0.7 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,799 2,353 2,424 3,479 3,891 4,197 4,437 2.7 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,270 5,174 5,262 6,521 6,955 7,287 7,606 1.6 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. To convert short tons to metric tons, divide each number in the table by 1.102.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 129

Appendix C Table C7. World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 649 850 860 937 953 957 952 0.4 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577 769 780 813 826 830 830 0.3 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 73 71 114 117 117 112 2.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 8 9 10 10 10 10 0.2 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 703 870 876 864 854 802 752 -0.7 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 192 303 295 319 330 351 380 1.1 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 303 295 319 330 351 380 1.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 1,544 2,024 2,032 2,120 2,136 2,110 2,083 0.1 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 201 210 224 275 279 332 399 2.5 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 125 134 151 153 173 218 2.1 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 85 90 124 125 160 181 3.1 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 72 79 89 98 105 113 1.6 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 256 282 302 364 376 437 512 2.3 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 178 194 367 464 551 620 5.2 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 17 23 72 137 162 200 9.8 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 18 18 67 89 123 132 9.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 107 113 169 179 185 196 2.4 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 36 40 60 59 81 93 3.8 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 6 6 6 6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 11 12 13 14 15 15 0.9 Central and South America . . . . . 9 21 19 20 35 33 34 2.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 14 14 14 23 23 24 2.3 Other Central/South America . . . . 7 7 5 6 11 10 10 2.9 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 209 225 406 519 605 675 4.9 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,905 2,515 2,560 2,890 3,032 3,152 3,270 1.1 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

130 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Low Economic Growth Case Projections Table C8. World Consumption of Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy by Region, High Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 9.0 9.5 11.0 11.5 12.3 13.1 1.4 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 5.2 5.9 6.8 6.9 7.3 7.7 1.2 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.6 1.5 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.0 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.4 6.7 0.8 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.0 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 15.6 16.5 16.6 18.7 19.3 20.5 21.7 1.2 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.4 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.7 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 0.5 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 4.9 5.4 8.1 8.6 9.0 9.6 2.6 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.6 3.1 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.7 2.6 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 3.2 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.6 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.1 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 3.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.1 Central and South America . . . . . 3.9 5.4 5.7 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 0.7 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 0.7 Other Central/South America . . . . 1.7 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 0.7 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 11.5 12.4 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.7 1.8 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.4 31.1 32.1 38.7 40.1 41.9 43.9 1.4 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. U.S. totals include net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 131

Appendix C Table C9. World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,369 4,247 4,328 5,086 5,501 5,910 6,314 1.7 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,827 3,554 3,651 4,193 4,502 4,821 5,147 1.5 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435 508 487 624 677 723 757 1.9 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 185 190 270 322 366 409 3.4 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,069 2,551 2,556 2,592 2,712 2,775 2,916 0.6 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 930 1,136 1,202 1,241 1,304 1,356 1,403 0.7 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 765 910 971 976 1,020 1,053 1,081 0.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 166 226 231 265 284 302 322 1.5 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 6,368 7,934 8,086 8,919 9,517 10,041 10,633 1.2 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,488 1,131 1,154 1,688 1,864 1,996 2,101 2.6 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 955 769 780 1,037 1,132 1,226 1,335 2.4 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533 363 374 650 732 769 765 3.2 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418 389 390 514 561 600 640 2.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,906 1,520 1,544 2,201 2,425 2,595 2,741 2.5 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,259 2,711 2,914 4,674 5,408 6,057 6,638 3.6 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551 1,302 1,457 2,667 3,081 3,440 3,747 4.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 509 510 739 897 1,048 1,194 3.8 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 247 267 362 401 426 446 2.2 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358 653 680 907 1,028 1,144 1,251 2.7 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 547 574 816 918 992 1,051 2.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286 410 422 583 686 764 841 3.0 Central and South America . . . . . 463 715 735 1,012 1,192 1,366 1,540 3.3 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 338 352 442 529 631 761 3.4 Other Central/South America . . . . 234 377 383 570 663 735 779 3.1 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,272 4,383 4,645 7,085 8,204 9,179 10,070 3.4 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,546 13,836 14,275 18,205 20,146 21,815 23,444 2.2 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

132 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Low Economic Growth Case Projections Table C10. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,769 6,624 6,701 7,562 8,001 8,413 8,840 1.2 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,989 5,692 5,751 6,472 6,818 7,171 7,530 1.2 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473 573 588 667 711 729 755 1.1 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308 359 363 422 471 513 555 1.9 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,413 3,585 3,549 3,590 3,641 3,658 3,741 0.2 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 1,284 1,610 1,627 1,698 1,725 1,735 1,740 0.3 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 990 1,182 1,179 1,189 1,195 1,185 1,173 0.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 294 429 448 508 531 550 566 1.0 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 10,465 11,819 11,877 12,849 13,367 13,806 14,321 0.8 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 3,798 2,393 2,399 2,695 2,852 2,939 3,061 1.1 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,347 1,553 1,522 1,687 1,766 1,823 1,876 0.9 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,452 840 877 1,008 1,086 1,116 1,184 1.3 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,095 744 726 808 848 879 913 1.0 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,894 3,137 3,124 3,503 3,701 3,817 3,974 1.1 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,890 5,967 6,205 8,922 10,082 11,042 11,968 2.9 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,262 3,176 3,322 5,321 6,064 6,679 7,247 3.4 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 583 1,009 1,025 1,315 1,480 1,635 1,798 2.5 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 431 451 517 572 588 602 1.3 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 811 1,351 1,407 1,770 1,967 2,140 2,321 2.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 845 1,311 1,361 1,664 1,810 1,932 2,051 1.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655 840 854 1,083 1,203 1,291 1,367 2.1 Central and South America . . . . . 711 998 988 1,193 1,323 1,420 1,532 1.9 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 343 342 390 435 489 556 2.1 Other Central/South America . . . . 461 655 646 803 888 931 975 1.8 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,101 9,116 9,408 12,862 14,419 15,685 16,917 2.6 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,460 24,072 24,409 29,214 31,486 33,308 35,212 1.6 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Note: The U.S. numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 133

Appendix C Table C11. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Oil Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,639 2,983 2,987 3,403 3,627 3,816 3,983 1.3 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,178 2,458 2,457 2,816 2991 3,154 3,229 1.3 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 268 274 300 321 325 325 0.7 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 258 256 287 314 338 360 1.5 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,739 1,933 1,911 1,898 1,912 1,911 1,950 0.1 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 768 808 796 803 811 810 812 0.1 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655 668 657 642 641 632 623 -0.2 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 113 140 139 161 170 178 189 1.3 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 5,145 5,724 5,695 6,105 6,350 6,538 6,746 0.7 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,224 607 581 638 649 668 689 0.7 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 783 378 356 392 399 410 423 0.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 229 225 246 251 258 266 0.7 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 197 192 212 227 239 251 1.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,468 803 773 850 876 907 940 0.9 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,116 1,886 1,940 2,773 3,122 3,441 3,785 2.9 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345 638 669 1,138 1,287 1,441 1,626 3.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 278 279 374 435 495 555 3.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 236 241 271 284 286 285 0.7 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468 733 751 990 1,115 1,219 1,318 2.5 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 568 781 804 973 1,033 1,074 1,113 1.4 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304 369 377 501 557 594 623 2.2 Central and South America . . . . . 541 729 712 849 932 991 1,055 1.7 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 281 275 295 315 349 390 1.5 Other Central/South America . . . . 330 448 437 553 617 542 666 1.8 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,529 3,764 3,834 5,095 5,644 6,100 6,577 2.4 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,142 10,292 10,302 12,050 12,870 13,545 14,262 1.4 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

134 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Low Economic Growth Case Projections Table C12. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Natural Gas Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,207 1,423 1,446 1,635 1,779 1,904 1,971 1.4 United Statesa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,026 1,189 1,203 1,333 1,437 1,532 1,579 1.2 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 157 160 203 224 238 238 1.8 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 77 83 99 118 134 154 2.7 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 803 812 939 1,035 1,109 1,216 1.8 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 133 209 209 225 250 263 273 1.2 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 150 147 161 175 183 185 1.0 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 44 59 62 64 75 80 88 1.5 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 1,854 2,436 2,467 2,777 3,026 3,223 3,383 1.4 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,352 1,119 1,147 1,310 1,445 1,506 1,599 1.5 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 928 768 776 823 883 936 986 1.0 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424 351 371 487 562 570 612 2.2 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 139 136 194 218 236 256 2.8 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,519 1,258 1,283 1,503 1,662 1,742 1,855 1.6 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 402 434 545 638 739 891 3.2 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 66 71 126 159 187 246 5.6 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 46 48 73 92 109 127 4.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 44 48 56 67 74 87 2.6 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 246 267 291 319 369 431 2.1 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 421 457 561 644 726 808 2.5 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 130 139 165 211 251 299 3.4 Central and South America . . . . . 116 202 203 256 297 330 373 2.7 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 22 26 46 68 83 102 6.2 Other Central/South America . . . . 110 181 177 210 229 247 270 1.9 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 569 1,156 1,232 1,526 1,789 2,047 2,371 2.9 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,942 4,849 4,982 5,806 6,478 7,012 7,608 1.9 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 135

Appendix C Table C13. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal Use by Region, Low Economic Growth Case, 1990-2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide)

History Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Region/Country 1990 2001 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,923 2,214 2,247 2,504 2,575 2,672 2,864 1.1 a

United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,784 2,042 2,070 2,304 2,370 2,464 2,630 1.0 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 148 154 164 166 167 193 1.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 24 23 36 39 41 41 2.6 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,160 849 825 774 731 691 653 -1.0 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . 383 593 622 670 664 661 654 0.2 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 364 375 387 378 370 365 -0.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 138 229 247 284 285 291 289 0.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . 3,465 3,656 3,694 3,948 3,970 4,024 4,172 0.5 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . 1,222 667 671 748 758 765 773 0.6 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 635 408 390 473 484 477 467 0.8 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587 260 281 275 274 288 306 0.1 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 685 409 397 402 404 403 406 0.1 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,907 1,076 1,068 1,150 1,162 1,168 1,179 0.4 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,607 3,679 3,831 5,604 6,322 6,862 7,292 2.8 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,886 2,472 2,582 4,057 4,617 5,052 5,374 3.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 684 698 867 952 1,031 1,116 2.1 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 152 161 190 220 228 231 1.6 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 371 389 489 533 552 572 1.7 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 110 100 131 134 132 129 1.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 340 338 417 435 446 444 1.2 Central and South America . . . . . 54 66 73 88 94 98 104 1.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 40 41 49 52 57 64 2.0 Other Central/South America . . . . 20 26 32 40 42 41 39 0.9 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,003 4,196 4,342 6,240 6,986 7,538 7,970 2.7 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,375 8,928 9,105 11,338 12,118 12,731 13,320 1.7 a

Includes the 50 States and the District of Columbia.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washing-ton, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005)

(Washington, DC, February 2005), low economic growth case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run LM2005.

D102004A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

136 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Appendix D Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Table D1. Delivered Energy Consumption in the United States by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 -0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.2 0.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.2 1.6 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.1 1.0 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 5.0 5.6 6.3 7.1 2.4 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 9.5 10.4 11.3 12.4 1.8 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.3 0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.9 9.4 9.9 10.4 10.7 0.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 -0.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 1.3 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 27.4 28.4 29.8 30.8 0.9 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.1 30.5 33.3 35.8 38.3 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.9 31.4 34.2 36.8 39.4 1.7 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.5 42.8 45.9 49.0 51.9 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.8 19.3 20.3 21.4 22.1 0.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 -0.5 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8 13.9 15.1 16.4 17.8 1.8 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 1.2 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71.6 80.7 86.1 91.7 96.8 1.3 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 26.4 29.9 31.5 33.4 35.6 1.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.0 110.6 117.6 125.1 132.4 1.3 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 7.0 8.7 9.8 9.6 2.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.8 22.8 23.6 25.3 28.6 1.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.7 0.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.3 1.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.2 43.7 46.7 49.8 53.5 1.5 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.4 44.0 47.1 50.2 53.2 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.6 26.3 29.0 31.2 31.7 1.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.0 24.9 25.7 27.3 30.5 1.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.7 0.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 6.9 7.2 7.7 8.3 1.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.0 110.6 117.6 125.1 132.4 1.3 Sources: 2002: Based on Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 2003, DOE/EIA-0384(2003) (Washington, DC, September 2004). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 139

Appendix D Table D2. Delivered Energy Consumption in Canada by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.4 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.7 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.2 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.3 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.9 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.9 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.2 5.8 6.2 6.6 1.7 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 0.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 0.8 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 1.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 1.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.9 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.3 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 10.6 11.5 12.1 12.6 1.3 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.2 2.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 15.6 16.9 17.8 18.8 1.6 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 9.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.0 2.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 7.2 7.8 8.4 9.0 2.2 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 1.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 4.4 4.8 4.8 2.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.1 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 15.6 16.9 17.8 18.8 1.6 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

140 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Table D3. Delivered Energy Consumption in Mexico by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 5.8 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 3.4 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.3 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 4.4 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.7 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 1.4 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 2.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.5 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 2.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 13.7 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.1 6.9 7.6 8.3 2.2 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 8.0 9.1 10.0 10.9 2.2 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 5.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.3 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.1 2.7 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.5 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 2.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 3.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 8.0 9.1 10.0 10.9 2.2 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 141

Appendix D Table D4. Delivered Energy Consumption in Western Europe by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 -1.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.6 0.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -3.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 0.4 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.9 -0.2 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 -0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 0.8 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.0 0.6 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.7 0.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 6.8 7.3 8.0 8.7 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.9 1.6 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.7 0.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 28.7 30.0 31.3 33.3 1.1 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.2 17.8 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.5 18.0 0.4 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.9 27.8 28.2 28.4 29.3 0.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.7 1.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 -0.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 8.9 9.5 9.8 10.5 1.0 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 -0.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.8 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50.3 52.7 54.3 55.3 57.7 0.6 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.0 18.4 0.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.4 70.2 72.2 73.4 76.1 0.5 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 0.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 5.3 6.4 7.1 8.2 3.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.8 -1.3 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.4 7.8 -0.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.5 7.1 1.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.3 27.2 28.3 28.6 29.7 0.5 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.6 29.2 29.7 30.0 31.0 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4 17.7 19.5 20.9 22.9 1.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.3 6.9 -1.0 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.4 7.8 -0.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.4 1.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.4 70.2 72.2 73.4 76.1 0.5 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

142 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Table D5. Delivered Energy Consumption in Japan by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 -1.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 -0.1 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 -1.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 3.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.2 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 -0.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.3 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -5.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 0.7 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 0.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 0.2 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.3 0.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 2.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 -0.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 1.3 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.3 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.5 17.8 0.4 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.6 7.0 0.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.0 22.9 23.6 24.1 24.7 0.5 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 -0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 1.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 0.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.0 1.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 9.5 9.9 10.4 10.9 1.0 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.0 11.0 0.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.9 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 0.0 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.0 1.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.0 22.9 23.6 24.1 24.7 0.5 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 143

Appendix D Table D6. Delivered Energy Consumption in Australia/New Zealand by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.8 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.5 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 3.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.1 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 2.5 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 0.8 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.9 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.8 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 4.7 5.1 5.5 5.9 1.7 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 0.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.8 1.3 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 1.0 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 1.1 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 1.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 7.5 7.9 8.4 8.8 1.4 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

144 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Table D7. Delivered Energy Consumption in the Former Soviet Union by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 3.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.3 1.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 0.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -34.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8 9.4 9.8 9.9 10.2 1.2 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 2.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.9 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 -2.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.0 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.8 0.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 10.0 11.5 12.3 13.8 1.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 1.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.5 3.7 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.0 23.7 26.1 27.7 30.0 1.6 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.0 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.3 1.5 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.6 8.9 9.3 9.8 10.4 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.1 14.6 16.4 17.3 19.0 1.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 0.9 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 6.1 7.0 7.7 8.3 3.2 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.1 0.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34.8 40.1 43.3 45.4 48.4 1.4 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 7.6 9.6 10.6 11.8 12.6 2.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.4 49.7 53.9 57.2 61.0 1.6 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 11.5 13.2 14.3 14.9 2.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 0.8 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.5 4.2 2.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 22.2 24.0 25.6 27.0 2.0 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 9.8 10.2 10.8 11.4 1.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.7 26.1 29.6 31.6 33.9 2.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.8 0.8 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.5 4.2 2.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.4 49.7 53.9 57.2 61.0 1.6 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 145

Appendix D Table D8. Delivered Energy Consumption in Eastern Europe by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -1.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 2.7 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.7 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 22.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.1 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 2.1 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 3.0 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.4 1.8 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.9 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.1 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 2.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 -0.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.2 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.2 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 9.5 10.4 11.2 12.1 1.6 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.7 2.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 13.3 14.5 15.6 16.7 1.7 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.4 6.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.7 1.9 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.7 3.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 0.2 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 13.3 14.5 15.6 16.7 1.7 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

146 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Table D9. Delivered Energy Consumption in China by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 5.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 6.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 -0.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.8 5.6 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 5.5 6.3 6.9 7.7 3.5 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 5.1 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.4 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 7.1 8.4 9.7 10.9 3.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 3.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0 20.0 24.1 27.6 30.6 4.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 6.9 8.1 9.3 10.3 4.0 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 3.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.9 36.6 43.7 50.1 55.7 4.2 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 8.0 10.1 12.1 15.2 6.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 19.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -100.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 8.2 10.4 12.3 15.5 6.0 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 17.0 20.7 24.3 29.0 4.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.3 4.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.0 22.3 26.3 29.5 32.4 4.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 9.6 11.4 13.0 14.5 4.4 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.8 52.6 63.0 72.1 82.0 4.3 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 20.4 23.1 25.6 27.2 3.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.2 73.1 86.1 97.7 109.2 4.1 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.2 -5.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 1.2 1.5 2.1 4.3 14.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.8 22.9 26.7 30.1 31.2 3.3 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.1 9.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.6 3.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.1 31.9 36.6 41.0 44.4 3.7 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 18.9 21.9 25.3 29.2 4.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 3.1 4.0 4.9 7.6 7.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.9 45.1 53.0 59.6 63.6 3.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.1 9.9 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.7 3.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43.2 73.1 86.1 97.7 109.2 4.1 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 147

Appendix D Table D10. Delivered Energy Consumption in India by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Billion Kilowatthours)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 3.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 6.5 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.3 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 3.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 6.1 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 5.7 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 2.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.2 3.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 3.3 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 7.0 8.0 9.1 10.4 2.7 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.5 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.7 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 6.0 7.1 8.2 9.3 3.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 3.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.8 2.9 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.6 4.7 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.1 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 12.8 15.1 17.5 19.9 3.5 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 6.8 7.7 8.6 9.5 2.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0 19.6 22.7 26.0 29.3 3.3 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 6.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 7.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 6.4 7.2 7.9 8.5 2.2 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.4 8.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 3.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 9.5 10.9 12.5 14.0 3.3 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.3 7.5 8.7 10.0 3.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.9 5.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.6 9.9 11.1 12.2 13.4 2.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.4 8.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 3.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0 19.6 22.7 26.0 29.3 3.3 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

148 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Table D11. Delivered Energy Consumption in South Korea by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -3.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.5 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.5 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.6 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 2.1 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 7.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 3.4 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.6 2.0 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.9 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.7 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 4.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 3.2 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 8.1 9.0 9.6 10.2 1.9 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 2.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 10.6 11.8 12.7 13.5 2.1 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.2 3.8 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.9 4.5 4.9 5.2 2.8 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.1 1.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 3.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.6 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 10.6 11.8 12.7 13.5 2.1 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 149

Appendix D Table D12. Delivered Energy Consumption in Other Emerging Asia by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 3.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 3.4 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.2 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 3.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.9 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 3.0 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.8 3.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.1 2.7 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 2.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 4.0 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 11.5 13.4 15.3 17.3 3.1 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 8.6 10.1 11.5 13.0 3.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 8.6 10.1 11.6 13.1 3.3 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 14.4 16.7 18.9 21.0 3.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.0 3.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 2.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.9 3.6 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.2 23.6 27.4 31.0 34.8 3.1 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.7 7.8 8.9 9.9 2.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.9 30.3 35.1 39.9 44.6 2.9 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.7 2.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.9 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 4.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 10.0 11.6 13.3 14.8 2.8 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 16.5 19.2 21.8 24.2 3.2 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 5.6 6.9 8.4 9.7 2.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 5.4 6.0 6.4 6.8 2.1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 4.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.9 30.3 35.1 39.9 44.6 3.0 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

150 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Table D13. Delivered Energy Consumption in the Middle East by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 3.6 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 1.9 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 3.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.5 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 3.1 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 3.1 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.3 1.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 6.1 7.4 9.0 10.7 4.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.8 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4 12.4 14.2 16.1 18.1 2.9 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 5.9 6.7 7.3 7.9 2.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 6.0 6.8 7.4 8.0 2.5 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 12.0 13.1 13.9 14.7 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 7.6 9.1 10.7 12.5 3.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.1 3.2 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 4.3 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.6 23.3 26.3 29.2 32.1 2.6 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 5.4 6.0 6.4 6.8 1.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.0 28.7 32.4 35.6 38.9 2.5 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.1 2.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.9 1.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 3.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 8.3 9.4 10.2 10.9 2.4 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 15.1 16.6 17.7 18.8 2.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 11.1 13.2 15.2 17.4 3.1 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 3.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.0 28.7 32.4 35.6 38.9 2.5 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

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Appendix D Table D14. Delivered Energy Consumption in Africa by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 -0.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 6.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.3 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 6.0 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.3 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.6 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 4.3 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.3 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 3.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.6 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.8 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.9 6.5 7.1 7.7 2.1 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 4.2 4.9 5.4 5.7 3.1 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 4.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 3.1 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 6.7 7.6 8.3 8.8 2.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.4 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.8 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.7 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 12.7 14.7 16.3 17.8 2.8 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.6 2.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.7 16.7 19.3 21.4 23.4 2.7 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 3.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.4 2.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.3 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 6.1 7.1 8.1 8.9 2.7 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 7.6 8.7 9.5 10.1 2.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.4 4.4 5.2 6.4 4.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.3 1.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.7 16.7 19.3 21.4 23.4 2.7 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

152 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Reference Case Projections by End-Use Sector and Region Table D15. Delivered Energy Consumption in Central and South America by End-Use Sector and Fuel, 2002-2025 (Quadrillion Btu)

Projections Average Annual Percent Change, Sector/Fuel 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 2002-2025 Residential Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 3.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 4.2 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.3 Commercial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 4.8 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 4.4 Industrial Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.6 1.9 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.7 3.3 3.7 4.3 2.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 4.1 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.8 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.6 9.3 10.7 12.0 13.7 2.6 Transportation Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 7.3 8.3 9.0 9.8 2.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 7.4 8.4 9.1 9.9 2.7 All End-Use Sectors Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 12.4 14.0 15.2 16.5 2.4 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.4 2.8 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.1 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.2 4.3 Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 Delivered Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.5 20.3 23.5 26.1 29.1 2.8 Electricity-Related Losses . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.0 0.9 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 26.8 30.4 33.2 36.1 2.3 Electric Power Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.5 3.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.7 4.6 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 2.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.4 1.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 10.2 11.4 12.4 13.3 2.2 Total Energy Consumption Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.7 13.9 15.8 17.4 18.9 2.5 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 5.0 6.1 7.0 8.1 3.3 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 2.2 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 2.4 Renewables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 6.6 7.0 7.2 7.4 1.2 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 26.8 30.4 33.2 36.1 2.3 Sources: 2002: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 153

Appendix E Projections of Oil Production Capacity and Oil Production in Three Cases:

• Reference

• High World Oil Price

• Low World Oil Price

Oil Production and Capacity Projections Table E1. World Oil Production Capacity by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

History (Estimates) Projections Region/Country 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 OPEC Persian Gulf Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.0 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.2 5.3 6.6 Kuwait. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.1 2.9 3.5 4.5 5.2 Qatar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 9.2 14.0 14.5 15.4 16.3 United Arab Emitates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.5 5.4 Total Persian Gulf. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.7 20.7 28.3 30.8 35.2 39.3 Other OPEC Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.8 Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.9 Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 Venezuela. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.6 Total Other OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 9.9 11.6 12.9 14.5 16.7 Total OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 30.6 39.9 43.7 49.7 56.0 Non-OPEC Mature Market Economies United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 9.3 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.9 3.5 4.8 4.9 5.1 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.9 North Sea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.5 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.1 23.7 25.2 26.1 25.8 25.4 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 11.2 13.6 15.3 16.5 17.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 11.4 13.9 15.7 16.9 18.1 Emerging Economies China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 3.1 4.0 5.1 5.8 6.8 Central and South America . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.9 4.8 5.9 6.4 6.9 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 14.3 17.5 19.9 21.2 22.7 Total Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2 49.4 56.6 61.7 63.9 66.2 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.4 80.0 96.5 105.4 113.6 122.2 Note: OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division. Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005); and U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 157

Appendix E Table E2. World Oil Production Capacity by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

History (Estimates) Projections Region/Country 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 OPEC Persian Gulf Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.5 4.0 Kuwait. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.1 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 Qatar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 9.2 10.4 10.5 10.8 11.0 United Arab Emitates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.0 Total Persian Gulf. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.7 20.7 24.4 24.5 26.2 27.8 Other OPEC Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.9 Venezuela. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.9 Total Other OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 9.9 10.6 10.6 11.6 12.6 Total OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 30.6 35.0 35.1 37.8 40.4 Non-OPEC Mature Market Economies United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 9.3 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.0 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.9 4.0 5.4 5.9 6.4 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.6 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.3 North Sea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 6.3 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.9 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.1 23.7 26.6 28.3 29.0 29.2 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 11.2 14.1 16.6 17.8 19.6 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 11.4 14.5 17.0 18.2 20.1 Emerging Economies China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.0 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 3.1 4.4 5.7 6.7 8.1 Central and South America . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.9 5.2 6.4 7.2 8.0 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 14.3 18.5 21.5 23.5 25.8 Total Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2 49.4 59.6 66.7 70.7 75.1 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.4 80.0 94.6 101.8 108.5 115.5 Note: OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division. Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005); and U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

158 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Oil Production and Capacity Projections Table E3. World Oil Production Capacity by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

History (Estimates) Projections Region/Country 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 OPEC Persian Gulf Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.7 4.8 5.6 6.2 6.9 Iraq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.0 4.0 5.7 7.1 8.6 Kuwait. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.1 3.6 4.5 5.4 6.2 Qatar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 Saudi Arabia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 9.2 15.6 16.5 18.1 20.4 United Arab Emitates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 2.9 4.0 4.8 6.0 7.0 Total Persian Gulf. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.7 20.7 32.8 37.9 43.6 50.0 Other OPEC Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.7 Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.9 Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 3.3 4.3 5.5 6.4 Venezuela. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.1 4.6 5.4 6.4 7.3 Total Other OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 9.9 13.8 16.4 19.8 22.8 Total OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.2 30.6 46.6 54.3 63.4 72.8 Non-OPEC Mature Market Economies United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 9.3 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.9 3.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 North Sea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 6.3 5.7 5.2 4.8 4.3 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.1 23.7 24.4 24.7 24.2 23.3 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 11.2 13.1 14.9 15.8 16.9 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 11.4 13.4 15.3 16.2 17.3 Emerging Economies China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 3.1 4.0 4.9 5.5 6.7 Central and South America . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.9 4.8 5.6 6.1 6.5 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 14.3 17.2 19.0 20.1 21.8 Total Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2 49.4 55.0 59.0 60.5 62.4 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.4 80.0 101.6 113.3 123.9 135.2 Note: OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division. Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005); and U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 159

Appendix E Table E4. World Oil Production by Region and Country, Reference Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

History (Estimates) Projections Region/Country 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Conventional Production. . . . . . . . . . . . 66.7 76.6 91.5 98.0 105.2 113.2 OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 28.3 37.0 40.0 45.5 51.4 Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.3 19.0 25.8 27.9 32.1 36.7 North Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.6 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.6 South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.4 5.0 Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.1 48.3 54.5 58.0 59.7 61.8 Mature Market Economies . . . . . . . . . 20.1 22.9 23.5 23.0 22.4 21.8 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 9.3 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.3 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.9 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 6.9 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.0 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Transitional Economies . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 11.4 13.9 15.7 16.8 18.0 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 11.2 13.6 15.3 16.4 17.5 Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 9.6 10.3 10.8 11.1 11.3 Caspian and Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.6 3.3 4.5 5.3 6.2 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 Emerging Economies. . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 14.0 17.1 19.3 20.5 22.0 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.9 5.5 6.5 Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.8 4.6 5.5 6.0 6.5 Nonconventional Production . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.5 2.8 4.9 5.5 5.7 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other North America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 1.7 3.1 3.3 3.5 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Central and South America . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 Liquids Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.7 78.1 94.3 102.9 110.7 118.9 OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6 28.7 37.7 41.3 46.8 52.7 Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.1 49.4 56.6 61.7 63.9 66.2 Persian Gulf Production as a Percentage of World Consumption . . . 24.5% 24.3% 27.5% 27.3% 29.2% 31.0%

Notes: OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Conventional production includes crude oil (including lease con-densates), natural gas liquids, other hydrogen hydrocarbons for refinery feedstocks, refinery gains, alcohol, and liquids produced from coal and other sources. Nonconventional liquids include production from oil sands, ultra-heavy oils, gas to liquids technologies, coal to liquids technologies, biofuel technologies, and shale oil. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent round-ing.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division. Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005); and U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

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Oil Production and Capacity Projections Table E5. World Oil Production by Region and Country, High Oil Price Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

History (Estimates) Projections Region/Country 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Conventional Production. . . . . . . . . . . . 66.7 76.6 88.5 92.6 97.3 102.4 OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.5 30.2 32.0 31.2 33.1 35.0 Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.2 20.9 22.3 21.8 23.3 25.1 North Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2 46.4 56.5 61.4 64.2 67.4 Mature Market Economies . . . . . . . . . 20.1 22.9 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.2 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 9.3 10.1 10.1 10.1 9.8 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.6 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.3 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 6.9 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.4 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 Transitional Economies . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 9.5 14.4 16.9 18.1 20.0 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 9.3 14.0 16.5 17.7 19.5 Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 7.7 10.7 11.6 12.0 12.5 Caspian and Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.6 3.3 4.9 5.7 7.0 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Emerging Economies. . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 14.0 17.8 20.4 22.2 24.2 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.9 4.1 5.2 6.1 7.4 Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.8 4.8 5.9 6.6 7.2 Nonconventional Production . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.5 4.3 7.1 8.8 10.5 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 Other North America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 2.1 3.7 4.2 4.7 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 Central and South America . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.0 Liquids Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.7 78.1 92.8 99.7 106.1 112.9 OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.5 30.6 33.3 33.0 35.4 37.9 Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2 47.5 59.6 66.7 70.7 75.1 Persian Gulf Production as a Percentage of World Consumption . . . 24.4% 26.7% 22.7% 20.1% 19.7% 18.4%

Notes: OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Conventional production includes crude oil (including lease con-densates), natural gas liquids, other hydrogen hydrocarbons for refinery feedstocks, refinery gains, alcohol, and liquids produced from coal and other sources. Nonconventional liquids include production from oil sands, ultra-heavy oils, gas to liquids technologies, coal to liquids technologies, biofuel technologies, and shale oil. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent round-ing.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division. Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005); and U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

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Appendix E Table E6. World Oil Production by Region and Country, Low Oil Price Case, 1990-2025 (Million Barrels per Day)

History (Estimates) Projections Region/Country 1990 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Conventional Production. . . . . . . . . . . . 66.7 76.6 96.4 106.1 115.9 126.6 OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.5 28.3 43.4 50.3 58.7 67.6 Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.2 19.0 30.3 35.1 41.4 48.4 North Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.0 4.3 4.9 5.7 6.0 West Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.0 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.7 South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.9 4.1 5.0 5.7 6.5 Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2 48.3 53.0 55.8 57.2 59.0 Mature Market Economies . . . . . . . . . 20.1 22.9 22.8 22.0 21.4 20.4 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 9.3 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.4 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 6.9 6.3 5.8 5.4 4.9 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Australia and New Zealand . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Transitional Economies . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 11.4 13.4 15.3 16.2 17.3 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 11.2 13.1 14.9 15.8 16.9 Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 9.6 10.0 10.5 10.6 10.9 Caspian and Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.6 3.1 4.4 5.2 6.0 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Emerging Economies. . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 14.0 16.8 18.5 19.6 21.3 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.0 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 Other Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.7 5.3 6.5 Central and South America . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.8 4.6 5.3 5.8 6.2 Nonconventional Production . . . . . . . . 0.0 1.5 2.6 4.0 4.3 4.3 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other North America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Middle East. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Central and South America . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 Liquids Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.7 78.1 99.0 110.1 120.2 130.9 OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.5 28.7 44.0 51.1 59.7 68.5 Non-OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2 49.4 55.0 59.0 60.5 62.4 Persian Gulf Production as a Percentage of World Consumption . . . 24.4% 24.3% 30.6% 31.9% 34.5% 37.0%

Notes: OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Conventional production includes crude oil (including lease con-densates), natural gas liquids, other hydrogen hydrocarbons for refinery feedstocks, refinery gains, alcohol, and liquids produced from coal and other sources. Nonconventional liquids include production from oil sands, ultra-heavy oils, gas to liquids technologies, coal to liquids technologies, biofuel technologies, and shale oil. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent round-ing.

Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division. Projections:

EIA, System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005); and U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000 (Reston, VA, July 2000).

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Appendix F Projections of Nuclear Generating Capacity

• Reference Case

• Strong Nuclear Power Revival Case

• Weak Nuclear Power Case

• Kyoto Protocol Case

Nuclear Generating Capacity Projections Table F1. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, Reference Case, 2002-2025 (Gigawatts)

Projections Region/Country 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110.9 116.5 118.1 118.6 117.9 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.9 100.6 102.2 102.7 102.7 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 13.8 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.0 120.1 114.9 104.6 95.1 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 47.4 48.5 51.2 54.8 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 47.4 48.5 51.2 54.8 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . . . 283.8 284.1 281.5 274.4 267.8 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 39.2 38.2 44.5 51.8 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 24.6 23.9 28.1 35.5 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2 14.7 14.3 16.3 16.3 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 12.2 13.2 14.1 15.1 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48.2 51.5 51.4 58.5 66.9 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.3 49.0 60.1 70.7 79.7 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 10.8 18.1 21.1 26.0 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.9 10.5 14.2 15.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 22.0 23.3 24.1 25.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 8.3 8.2 11.3 13.0 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 Central and South America . . . . . . . 3.0 2.8 4.8 4.4 4.4 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 0.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.1 54.6 67.8 78.1 87.1 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361.2 390.1 400.7 411.0 421.8 Nations Participating in Kyoto Protocol Annex I Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 13.7 15.8 17.3 18.8 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.0 125.0 130.2 132.0 147.0 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 48.5 61.5 66.8 69.6 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 12.2 13.2 14.1 15.1 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 38.9 38.2 42.8 50.1 Total Annex I Participants . . . . . . . 231.8 238.2 258.9 273.0 300.6 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washing-ton, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 165

Appendix F Table F2. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, Strong Nuclear Power Revival Case, 2002-2025 (Gigawatts)

Projections Region/Country 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110.9 115.7 119.5 123.7 126.3 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.9 100.6 102.2 102.7 102.7 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 13.7 15.8 17.3 18.8 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.7 4.9 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.0 125.0 130.2 132.0 147.0 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 48.5 61.5 66.8 69.6 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 48.5 61.5 66.8 69.6 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . . . 283.8 289.2 311.1 322.5 343.0 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 42.0 49.6 61.7 72.0 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 27.4 31.8 41.5 46.9 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2 14.7 17.8 20.3 25.1 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 12.0 15.2 20.6 30.9 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48.2 54.1 64.8 82.3 102.9 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.3 44.9 63.7 77.2 100.4 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 9.9 21.1 23.3 28.9 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 6.3 9.4 12.6 16.2 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 20.6 23.3 26.0 30.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 8.0 9.9 15.3 25.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.9 3.1 6.3 9.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 2.1 3.6 6.4 Central and South America . . . . . . . 3.0 4.8 4.8 6.0 8.4 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 5.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.6 1.6 2.8 2.8 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.1 52.3 73.7 93.1 124.3 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361.2 395.6 449.6 498.0 570.1 Nations Participating in Kyoto Protocol Annex I Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 13.7 15.8 17.3 18.8 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.0 125.0 130.2 132.0 147.0 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 48.5 61.5 66.8 69.6 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 12.0 15.2 20.6 30.9 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 41.7 48.3 57.7 66.7 Total Annex I Participants . . . . . . . 231.8 240.8 271.0 294.4 333.0 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washing-ton, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

166 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Nuclear Generating Capacity Projections Table F3. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, Weak Nuclear Power Case, 2002-2025 (Gigawatts)

Projections Region/Country 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110.9 114.2 114.6 114.9 111.2 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.9 100.6 102.2 102.7 102.7 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 12.1 11.0 10.8 7.1 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.0 107.1 94.6 73.2 45.2 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 46.8 47.4 45.1 40.5 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 46.8 47.4 45.1 40.5 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . . . 283.8 268.0 256.6 233.2 196.9 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 36.8 37.0 34.6 30.3 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 23.7 23.9 21.5 18.9 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 11.4 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 10.7 10.8 11.4 10.2 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48.2 47.5 47.8 46.0 40.4 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.3 39.0 47.5 54.4 55.7 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 8.6 12.8 16.8 18.5 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.7 6.2 7.8 10.0 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 16.8 20.6 22.8 23.3 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 7.9 7.9 7.0 3.9 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 0.3 Central and South America . . . . . . . 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.1 2.5 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.0 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.1 44.5 52.7 60.4 59.5 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361.2 360.1 357.1 339.7 296.8 Nations Participating in Kyoto Protocol Annex I Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 13.7 15.8 17.3 18.8 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.0 125.0 130.2 132.0 147.0 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 48.5 61.5 66.8 69.6 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 10.7 10.8 11.4 10.2 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 36.8 37.0 34.6 29.3 Total Annex I Participants . . . . . . . 231.8 234.6 255.3 262.2 274.9 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washing-ton, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 167

Appendix F Table F4. World Nuclear Generating Capacity by Region and Country, Kyoto Protocol Case, 2002-2025 (Gigawatts)

Projections Region/Country 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mature Market Economies North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110.9 116.5 118.1 118.6 118.0 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98.9 100.6 102.2 102.7 102.7 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 13.9 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.0 123.3 119.7 117.9 109.8 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 47.7 51.5 61.1 61.1 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 47.7 51.5 61.1 61.1 Australia/New Zealand . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Mature Market . . . . . . . . . . . 283.8 287.5 289.3 297.6 288.9 Transitional Economies Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 40.1 42.8 50.0 54.9 Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.2 25.5 28.5 31.8 35.5 Other FSU . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.2 14.7 14.3 18.2 19.4 Eastern Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 12.3 14.3 16.2 19.8 Total Transitional . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48.2 52.5 57.1 66.1 74.7 Emerging Economies Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.3 49.0 60.1 70.7 79.7 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 10.8 18.1 21.1 26.0 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 7.9 10.5 14.2 15.3 South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.7 22.0 23.3 24.1 25.5 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 8.3 8.2 11.3 13.0 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 Central and South America . . . . . . . 3.0 2.8 4.8 4.4 4.4 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 0.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 Total Emerging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.1 54.6 67.8 78.1 87.1 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361.2 394.6 414.2 441.8 450.7 Nations Participating in Kyoto Protocol Annex I Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 13.9 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.0 123.3 119.7 117.9 109.8 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.9 47.7 51.5 61.1 61.1 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 12.3 14.3 16.2 19.8 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 39.8 42.8 48.3 53.2 Total Annex I Participants . . . . . . . 231.8 237.6 242.8 257.9 257.8 Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

Sources: 2002: Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washing-ton, DC, February 2005), October futures case, AEO2005 National Energy Modeling System, run CF2005.D111104A, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/; and System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005).

168 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Appendix G Key Assumptions for the IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol Case Energy-Related Emissions of Greenhouse Gases current SAGE framework uses historical data on fuel The System for the Analysis of Global energy Markets consumption and emissions from EIAs International (SAGE)the model used by the Energy Information Energy Annual 2002 to calibrate the base year for the Administration (EIA) to prepare the International Energy models Reference Energy System (RES). The Interna-Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) mid-term projectionsdoes not tional Energy Annual does not provide historical data for include non-energy-related emissions of greenhouse methane and nitrous oxide emissions, and currently gases, which are estimated at about 15 to 20 percent of there are no plans to do so in the future.

total greenhouse gas emissions, based on inventories EIA assumes that emissions reduction proportions and submitted to the United Nations Framework Conven- abatement costs for energy-related methane and nitrous tion on Climate Change (UNFCCC). SAGE models oxide will be sufficiently similar to those for carbon global energy supply and demand and, therefore, does dioxide thatgiven their lesser share of total emissions not address agricultural and other non-energy-related (approximately 15 percent from energy and non-energy emissions. sources combined)the per-unit carbon price derived EIA implicitly assumes that percentage reductions of by modeling carbon dioxide alone is representative of non-energy-related emissions and their associated the abatement costs for all energy-related greenhouse abatement costs will be similar to those for energy- gas emissions. The UNFCCC estimates that total Annex related emissions. Non-energy-related greenhouse gas I emissions of greenhouse gases (in carbon dioxide emissions are likely to grow faster than energy-related equivalents) in 2002 had the following composition:

emissions; however, the marginal abatement costs for energy-related carbon dioxide, 78.1 percent; non-non-energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are not energy-related carbon dioxide, 3.8 percent; methane, known and cannot be estimated reliably. In SAGE, each 10.0 percent; nitrous oxide, 6.4 percent; and other gases, regions emissions reduction goal under the Kyoto Pro- 1.7 percent.19 tocol is based only on the corresponding estimate of that Emissions Reduction Targets regions energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, as determined by EIA data. It is assumed that the required The emissions reduction targets modeled in SAGE were reductions will also be proportionately less than if all derived from EIAs historical data on greenhouse gas gases were included. emissions, not on UNFCCC data. Similarly, the histori-cal values for fuel consumption used in SAGE are based Carbon Dioxide Emissions on EIA data. For methodological reasons, the EIA and For IEO2005, EIA modeled only energy-related carbon UNFCCC data on emissions differ; therefore, the emis-dioxide emissions. Energy-related emissions of other sions targets used for the IEO2005 analysis differ from greenhouse gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide, and those used by the UNFCCC, as shown by the examples sulfur hexafluoride, are not included in the analysis. The in Table G1.

Table G1. Differences Between IEO2005 and UNFCCC Regional Emissions Reduction Targets for 2010 EIA Target UNFCCC Target Difference (Thousand (Thousand Thousand Percent of SAGE Region Metric Tons) Metric Tons) Metric Tons IEO2005 Target Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444,375 396,591 47,784 10.75 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,056,157 967,862 88,295 8.36 Former Soviet Union . . . . . . . . . . . 3,091,752 3,080,200 11,552 0.37 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 930,230 985,432 -55,202 -5.93 Western Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,122,701 2,936,310 186,391 5.97 Sources: EIA Target: Derived from Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. UNFCC Target: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Greenhouse Gas Inventory Database, web site http://ghg.unfccc.int/index.html, queried for 1990 or base year Total Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) for CO2 for all Annex I countries.

19 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Greenhouse Gas Inventory Database, Queried for 2002 National Totals and Total Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) for all GHGs for all Annex I countries except Russia, Poland, and Liechtenstein, web site http://ghg.unfccc.int/index.html.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 169

Regional Aggregration response of gross domestic product (GDP) to higher SAGE aggregates individual countries into 15 fixed energy prices is not modeled. That is, SAGE does not global regions and forecasts all energy consumption model the macroeconomic impacts of the Kyoto activity and consequent emissions at the regional level. Protocol.

Because the model does not distinguish specific coun-SAGE derives demand for energy end-use services (resi-tries within a region, the methodology in effect creates a dential space heating, personal road transportation, etc.)

joint emissions reduction target for all participating as a function of exogenously developed macroeconomic Annex I countries in the region. For regions with a mix of drivers (GDP, population, etc.). The SAGE linear pro-participating and non-participating countries (e.g.,

gram then solves for the least-cost technology mix that Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and the former Soviet will meet the projected demand. Although SAGE does Union), the joint target by methodological necessity not endogenously change the projections provided includes the non-participating countries (but with no exogenously for the macroeconomic drivers, most of the emissions reduction obligation from their baselines).

effect of higher energy prices is captured in the elastic This approach makes it somewhat easier for countries to demand. Furthermore, higher GDP growth projections achieve their targets. It allows, by definition, the equiva- tend to increase the introduction of newer, more effi-lent of off-book joint implementation projects and cient technologies.

emission credit trading among participants and non-participants in a single region. Further, renewable Minimum Market Shares resources located in one area may be employed to meet SAGE imposes minimum market shares for some demand from another area within a single large region, energy-efficient technologies (e.g., new, more efficient with no transmission costs. The associated carbon price, personal automobiles, such as gas-electric hybrids) that therefore, tends to be understated based on these two have capital costs higher than those of less efficient com-assumptions. peting technologies. (Because of the winner-take-all The SAGE model results show that Eastern Europe and nature of linear program models, the more efficient but the former Soviet Union have sufficient room under more costly technologies would not be selected without their emissions reduction targets to meet all the permit the imposed minimum shares.)

trading demand generated by other signatory regions For the IEO2005 Kyoto Protocol case, EIA assumed no through 2025. Therefore, the IEO2005 projections do not increase in the minimum market share imposed for include Clean Development Mechanism projects, which energy-efficient new technologies. Although in the are likely to be more costly than purchases of emission Kyoto Protocol case their costs compare more favorably permits. with the costs for their less energy-efficient competitors Reduction Targets Through 2025 than in the reference case, the new technologies still cost Under the terms of the Kyoto Protocol, emissions reduc- more and therefore enter the forecast only at their tion targets continue in the second commitment period imposed minimum market shares. Furthermore, SAGE (beyond 2012) at the same levels as in the initial commit- does not adjust for changes in consumer preferences, ment period. In SAGE, those target levels are assumed to such as switching to subcompact cars that have both continue through 2025. lower capital costs and lower operating costs. This attribute of the model tends to yield a higher projected Macroeconomic Impacts carbon price than would be expected if such changes in In SAGE, elasticity of demand is modeled with respect consumer behavior were included in the analysis.

to the costs of energy end-use services; however, the 170 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Appendix H Comparisons With Other Forecasts, and Performance of Past IEO Forecasts for 1990, 1995, and 2000 All the forecasts provide projections out to the year 2010 Forecast Comparisons (Table H1). The 2002-2010 time period shows wide vari-Three organizations provide forecasts comparable with ation among the forecasters expectations. This is, in those in the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005). part, reflective of the volatility experienced over the past The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides busi- several years in the worlds energy markets. Growth ness as usual projections to the year 2030 in its World rates for energy consumption among the reference case Energy Outlook 2004; Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL) forecasts range from 2.0 percent per year (PEL) to 2.7 publishes world energy forecasts to 2025; and Petroleum percent per year (PIRA), with the IEO2005 forecast pro-Industry Research Associates (PIRA) provides projec- jecting 2.6 percent per year. The forecasters are in gen-tions to 2015. For this comparison, 2002 is used as the eral agreement that energy demand in the mature base year for all the forecasts, and the comparisons market economies will expand more slowly than in the extend to 2025. Although IEAs forecast extends to 2030, transitional economies, and that the fastest growth in it does not publish a projection for 2025. world energy use will occur among the emerging econo-mies. However, the IEO2005 reference case forecasts In addition to forecasts from other organizations, the much slower energy demand growth for Western IEO2005 projections are also compared with those in last Europe than do any of the other forecasts, and in fact all years report (IEO2004). Because 2002 data were not the other forecasts fall above the range defined by the available when IEO2004 forecasts were prepared, the IEO2005 high economic growth case for the 2002 to 2010 growth rates from IEO2004 are computed from 2001. period.

Regional breakouts among the forecasting groups vary, The IEA forecast anticipates much higher growth for complicating the comparisons. For example, IEO2005 mature market Asia than any of the other forecasts, and PIRA include Mexico in North America; IEA though this may likely be the case because the IEA fig-includes Mexico in Organization for Economic Coopera- ures include projections for South Korea, in addition to tion and Development (OECD) North America; but PEL Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. IEAs 2002-2010 includes Mexico in Latin America. Because the IEA and growth rate for mature market Asia exceeds that of the IEO2005 provide separate forecasts for Mexico, for pur- IEO2005 high economic growth case.

poses of this comparison, Mexico has been removed from North America in the IEO2005 and IEA projections In the transitional EE/FSU region, forecasts are largely and is included with Central and South America to form in agreement about expected growth, except for the a Latin America country grouping. Unfortunately, PIRA forecast. PIRA is much more optimistic about pro-PIRA does not provide separate forecasts for Mexico, jected growth for the EE/FSU region than any other and so PIRAs North American forecasts are somewhat forecast, and PIRAs 2.7 percent per year projected inconsistent with the other forecasts. growth rate for the EE/FSU falls above the IEO2005 high economic growth case of 2.5 percent per year for the Further, PIRA includes only Japan in mature market 2002 to 2010 period.

Asia, whereas mature market Asia in the IEO2005 fore-cast comprises Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, and The IEA projections for the developing world are also the IEA forecasts an OECD Pacific that includes those generally lower than the IEO2005 projections. The IEA three countries plus South Korea. IEO2005 includes Tur- growth rates are lower than the projected growth rates key in the Middle East, but IEA includes Turkeyas in IEO2005 for each developing region, and they fall well as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and below the IEO2005 low economic growth case for China Slovakiain OECD Europe (which is designated as and Africa. For China, the IEAs projection of 3.4-percent Western Europe for this comparison). PEL also places annual growth in energy demand between 2002 and Turkey in Western Europe but includes the Czech 2010 is substantially lower than the 6.8 percent per year Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia in Eastern forecast in the IEO2005 reference case. In part, this may Europe, as does IEO2005. Although most of the differ- be explained by Chinas particularly high economic ences involve fairly small countries, they do contribute growth and corresponding energy demand growth that to the variations among the forecasts. accompanied it in 2003 and 2004, which would not have Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 171

been anticipated when the IEA forecast was being pre- percent per year in IEO2004). This growth is largely pared for publication. attributed to the impact of recent high world oil prices on oil exporters in the FSU.

Similarly to IEAs China forecast, PEL has a lower growth rate than the IEO2005 low economic growth IEO2005, PIRA, and PEL provide forecasts for energy case, at 4.0 percent per year. The PEL forecast (March use in 2015 (Table H2), which is the end of the PIRA fore-2004) is among the oldest of the forecasts in the compari- cast horizon. Their projections for worldwide growth in son group, and, as with IEA, the unanticipated explosive energy consumption between 2002 and 2015 vary from growth in Chinas energy demand in the past few years 2.0 percent per year (PEL) to 2.6 percent per year (PIRA),

probably explains the differences between the PEL and with IEO2005 expecting average annual growth of 2.3 IEO2005 forecasts. The PIRA forecast for the 2002 to 2010 percent. As it does for 2002-2010, PIRA forecasts much period is very similar to the IEO2005 reference case pro- faster growth in energy use for the EE/FSU during jections for the developing world, with the exception of 2002-2015 than does IEO2005. In China and the Middle the Middle East, where PIRA projects growth in energy East, PIRAs energy growth projections exceed the demand which exceeds that in the IEO2005 high eco- IEO2005 high economic growth case forecasts. Whereas nomic growth case. the IEO2005 reference case anticipates that Chinas energy demand growth will slow in the 2010 to 2015 The IEO2005 reference case forecast is higher than in last period, PIRA does not. The PEL growth rates are, for the years outlook for the 2000 to 2010 period, particularly most part, fairly similar to those in the IEO2005 forecast.

for the transitional EE/FSU and emerging economy Only the growth rates for China are substantially lower regions. For the EE/FSU, projected growth in energy use than the IEO2005 reference case; it appears that PEL did is substantially higher in IEO2005 than in IEO2004 (with not anticipate the strong near-term growth in China, and demand growth averaging 2.0 percent and 1.1 percent this is reflected through the 2015 time horizon.

per year, respectively, in the two forecasts). In the case of the emerging economies, much of the upward revision The IEO2005 reference case projection of worldwide can be attributed to China and the other emerging Asia growth in energy use, at 2.3 percent per year for the 2002 nations, where unexpectedly strong growth in energy to 2015 period, is higher than was projected in IEO2004.

demand was recorded over the past 2 years and is By region, the largest differences between the two fore-reflected in the 10-year forecast period. In the case of the casts are within the developing world, with the IEO2004 EE/FSU, the higher forecast in IEO2005 reflects substan- forecasts for China, other emerging Asia, the Middle tially higher expectations for economic growth over the East, and Africa falling below those of the IEO2005 low time period (5.6 percent per year in IEO2005 and 4.5 economic growth case. In all cases, the forecasts for Table H1. Comparison of Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2002-2010 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

IEO2005 Region Low Growth Reference High Growth IEO2004 IEA PIRA PEL Mature Market Economies . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 United States and Canada. . . . . 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.0 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.0a 1.0 Transitional Economies . . . . . . 1.5 2.0 2.5 1.1 1.8 2.7 1.8 Emerging Economies . . . . . . . . 3.8 4.4 5.0 2.6 3.1 4.5 3.4 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 6.8 7.4 3.6 3.4 6.7 4.0 b

Other Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.7 4.3 2.4 3.2 3.8 3.3 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.4 4.0 2.0 3.2 4.4 3.3 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.4 3.9 1.8 2.7 3.6 3.1 Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.8 3.4 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.6 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.6 3.0 1.7 2.2 2.7 2.0 a

Japan only.

b Other Asia includes India and South Korea.

Sources: IEO2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). IEO2004:

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004), Table A1, p. 163. IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), pp. 430-517. PIRA: PIRA Energy Group, Retainer Client Seminar (New York, NY, October 2004). PEL: Petroleum Economics, Ltd., World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

172 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

economic growth are somewhat higher, particularly for to 2020, projecting average annual increases in the China, in IEO2005 than in IEO2004. This largely explains worlds total energy consumption that range from 1.9 the upward revision in energy use in the developing percent (IEA and PEL) to 2.1 percent (IEO2005). The regions. highest growth rates are projected for the emerging economies and the slowest for the mature market IEO2005, PEL, and IEA provide energy consumption economies. The largest variations among the regional projections for 2020 (Table H3). The three forecasts have forecasts are for China, where growth expectations for similar projections for energy demand growth from 2002 energy use range from 2.9 percent per year (IEA) to 4.6 Table H2. Comparison of Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2002-2015 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

IEO2005 Region Low Growth Reference High Growth IEO2004 PIRA PEL Mature Market Economies . . . . 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 United States and Canada. . . . . 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.2 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.8 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8a 0.9 Transitional Economies . . . . . . 1.4 1.9 2.4 1.4 2.5 1.8 Emerging Economies . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.8 4.4 2.7 4.3 3.2 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 5.4 6.0 3.7 6.2 3.8 b

Other Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.4 4.0 2.5 3.6 3.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.0 3.6 2.1 4.3 3.1 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.2 3.8 2.1 3.6 3.0 Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 3.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.3 2.7 1.8 2.6 2.0 a

Japan only.

b Other Asia includes India and South Korea.

Sources: IEO2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). IEO2004:

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004), Table A1, p. 163. PIRA: PIRA Energy Group, Retainer Client Seminar (New York, NY, October 2004). PEL: Petroleum Economics, Ltd., World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

Table H3. Comparison of Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2002-2020 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

IEO2005 Region Low Growth Reference High Growth IEO2004 IEA PEL Mature Market Economies . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 United States and Canada. . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.2 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.8 Transitional Economies . . . . . . 1.2 1.7 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.8 Emerging Economies . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.4 4.0 2.7 2.8 3.1 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 4.6 5.2 3.6 2.9 3.6 b

Other Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.1 3.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.7 3.3 2.1 3.0 2.9 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.9 3.4 2.2 2.6 2.9 Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.3 2.7 2.5 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 a

Japan only.

b Other Asia includes India and South Korea.

Sources: IEO2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). IEO2004:

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004), Table A1, p. 163. IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), pp. 430-517. PEL: Petroleum Economics, Ltd., World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 173

percent per year (IEO2005). IEA is more optimistic than the fastest growing fuel source in the 2002 to 2010 the other forecasts about energy demand growth in periodat 3.1 percent per year and 3.9 percent per year, mature market Asia, where the 1.3-percent annual rate respectivelyIEA and PEL expect much lower growth projected by IEA exceeds the rate in the IEO2005 high for coal.

economic growth case.

IEO2005, IEA, and PEL all project fairly strong relative As was the case for the 2002-2010 and 2002-2015 compar- growth in nuclear power demand over the time period, isons, China is the region with the largest differences but PIRA projects worldwide nuclear demand growth between the IEO2005 and IEO2004 reference case fore- rates that are about half those of the other forecasts. IEA casts for 2002-2020. The IEO2005 reference case projects projects much higher growth in renewable energy use annual energy demand growth for China that is a full than any of the other forecasts, although all the forecasts percentage point higher than in last years forecast, and expect growth in renewables to average 2.0 percent per last years reference case projection is lower than that in year or above from 2002 to 2010. The expectations for the IEO2005 low economic growth case. growth in oil demand range from 1.8 percent per year (PEL) to 2.4 percent per year (IEO2005). The relatively IEO2005 and PEL are the only forecasts that extend to bullish IEO2005 forecast for the 2002 to 2010 period is 2025 (the IEA forecast extends to 2030, but no forecast is almost entirely due to increases in Chinas oil demand.

proffered for 2025). For the 2002 to 2025 period (Table All the forecasts expect relatively strong growth in natu-H4), the two forecasts are largely in agreement, with the ral gas use.

PEL projections falling within the range provided by the IEO2005 low and high economic growth cases. Again, The IEO2005 projections are higher than the IEO2004 the largest difference between the two forecasts is for projections for each energy source, largely as a result of China, with PEL projecting 3.5-percent average annual the unanticipated strong expansion of energy demand growth in Chinas energy demand from 2002 to 2025 and in recent years. This years reassessment of the IEO2005 projecting a 4.1-percent average. near-term forecast is so profound relative to last years forecast that the IEO2004 projections for every fuel type The forecasts vary not only with respect to levels of total except oil fall below those in the IEO2005 low economic energy demand but also with respect to the mix of pri- growth case.

mary energy inputs. All the forecasts provide energy consumption projections by fuel in 2010 (Table H5). PEL, PIRA, and IEO2005 provide world energy con-There is a wide range of views among the forecasts sumption projections by fuel for 2015 (Table H6). PIRA regarding the mix of fuels that will fulfill projected remains much more bullish in its projections for coal demand. Whereas IEO2005 and PIRA expect coal to be demand over this time period, exceeding the IEO2005 Table H4. Comparison of Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Region, 2002-2025 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

IEO2005 Region Low Growth Reference High Growth IEO2004 PEL Mature Market Economies . . . . 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 United States and Canada. . . . . 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.1 Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 Mature Market Asia . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 Transitional Economies . . . . . . 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.7 Emerging Economies . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.1 3.7 2.7 3.0 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 4.1 4.7 3.5 3.5 b

Other Emerging Asia . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.9 3.5 2.5 3.1 Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.5 3.1 2.1 2.8 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.7 3.2 2.3 2.9 Latin America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.4 Total World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.9 a

Japan only.

b Other Asia includes India and South Korea.

Sources: IEO2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). IEO2004:

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004), Table A1, p. 163. PEL: Petroleum Eco-nomics, Ltd., World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

174 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

high economic growth case. In contrast, PEL is much IEO2005, PEL, and IEA provide energy consumption more pessimistic about coal use over the 2002 to 2015 projections for 2020 (Table H7). The three forecasts period, and its projected growth rate for worldwide coal largely agree about the growth rate for total energy use, demand is lower than that in the IEO2005 low economic ranging from 1.9 percent per year (PEL and IEA) to 2.1 growth case. IEO2005 expects nuclear power to expand percent per year (IEO2005) between 2002 and 2020. That by 1.3 percent per year, as compared with 0.9 percent per said, the projected fuel mixes differ among the forecasts.

year in the PEL forecast and 0.7 percent per year in the Whereas IEO2005 expects nuclear power generation to PIRA forecast. grow by 1.1 percent per year from 2002 to 2020, both IEA Table H5. Comparison of World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2002-2010 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

IEO2005 Fuel Low Growth Reference High Growth IEO2004 IEA PIRA PEL Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 3.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 3.0 1.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.1 3.5 1.3 1.8 3.9 1.6 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 0.7 1.3 Renewable/Other . . . . . . 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.2 3.2 2.3 2.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.6 3.0 1.7 2.2 2.7 2.0 Sources: IEO2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). IEO2004:

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004), Table A1, p. 163. IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), pp. 430-517. PIRA: PIRA Energy Group, Retainer Client Seminar (New York, NY, October 2004). PEL: Petroleum Economics, Ltd., World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

Table H6. Comparison of World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2002-2015 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

IEO2005 Fuel Low Growth Reference High Growth IEO2004 PIRA PEL Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.6 3.2 2.0 3.0 3.0 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.6 2.9 1.4 3.6 1.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.9 Renewable/Other . . . . . . 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.3 2.7 1.8 2.6 2.0 Sources: IEO2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). IEO2004:

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004). PIRA: PIRA Energy Group, Retainer Client Seminar (New York, NY, October 2004). PEL: Petroleum Economics, Ltd., World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

Table H7. Comparison of World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2002-2020 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

IEO2005 Fuel Low Growth Reference High Growth IEO2004 IEA PEL Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.7 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.6 2.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.3 2.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 Renewable/Other . . . . . . 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.1 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 Sources: IEO2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). IEO2004:

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004). IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004 (Paris, France, October 2004), pp. 430-517. PEL: Petroleum Economics, Ltd., World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 175

and PEL project much slower growth (0.6 percent and data published in EIAs International Energy Annual 2002, 0.7 percent per year, respectively). IEO2005 projects as part of EIAs commitment to provide users of the IEO smaller increases in natural gas demand than the other with a set of performance measures to assess the fore-two forecasts. IEA is more optimistic about the growth casts produced by this agency.

potential of renewable energy sources, projecting The IEO has been published since 1985. In IEO85, mid-2.7-percent annual growth between 2002 and 2020, as term projections were derived only for the worlds mar-compared with the IEO2005 reference case projection of ket economies. That is, no projections were prepared for 1.9 percent and the PEL projection of 2.1 percent.

the centrally planned economies (CPE) of the Soviet For the 2002 to 2020 period, the IEO2005 reference case Union, Eastern Europe, Cambodia, China, Cuba, Laos, projections by fuel are generally higher than in last Mongolia, North Korea, and Vietnam. The IEO85 projec-years report. In particular, coal demand is expected to tions extended to 1995 and included forecasts of energy grow by 2.3 percent per year from 2002 to 2020 in consumption for 1990 and 1995 and primary consump-IEO2005, but in IEO2004 coal demand was expected to tion of oil, natural gas, coal, and other fuels. IEO85 increase by 1.5 percent per year. The increase in coal use projections were also presented for several individual relative to last years outlook is due to increases in countries and subregions: the United States, Canada, demand among the emerging Asian economies. Japan, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, other OECD Europe, other OECD As noted above, the only two forecasts for the 2002 to (Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S. Territories),

2025 period, IEO2005 and PEL, are largely in agreement OPEC, and other developing countries. Beginning with with respect to the increase in total energy demand IEO86, nuclear power projections were published sepa-(Table H8). PEL projects an average annual growth rate rately from the other fuel category.

of 1.9 percent for total world demand and IEO2005 2.0 percent per year. The fuel mix does vary between the Regional aggregations have changed from report to two forecasts, with PEL projecting stronger growth in report. In 1990, the report coverage was expanded for natural gas use than IEO2005 (in fact, PELs growth rate the first time from only the market economies to the exceeds the projected rate in the IEO2005 high economic entire world. Projections for China, the FSU, and other growth case). In contrast, IEO2005 expects stronger CPE countries were provided separately. Starting with growth in coal use and nuclear power. The IEO2005 ref- IEO94, the regional presentation was changed from mar-erence case forecast shows generally higher growth on a ket economies and CPE countries to OECD, Eurasia by-fuel basis than last years report, except for oil, which (China, FSU, and Eastern Europe), and Rest of World.

grows slightly slower in the 2002 to 2025 period, and Beginning in 1995 and essentially continuing until the renewables, for which the projected growth rates are the current issue, the regional presentation changed to fur-same in the IEO2004 and IEO2005 forecasts. ther group the world according to economic develop-ment: industrialized nations (essentially the OECD Performance of Past IEO Forecasts before the entry of South Korea and the Eastern Euro-for 1990, 1995, and 2000 pean nations, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia), the transitional economies of the EE/FSU, In an effort to measure how well the IEO projections and the developing world (including China and India).

have estimated future energy consumption trends over the 20-year history of the series, a comparison of IEO The forecast time horizon has also changed over the forecasts produced for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000 is years (Table H9). In the first edition of the report, IEO85, presented here. The forecasts are compared with actual projections were made for 1990 and 1995. IEO86 saw the Table H8. Comparison of World Energy Consumption Growth Rates by Fuel, 2002-2025 (Average Annual Percent Growth)

IEO2005 Fuel Low Growth Reference High Growth IEO2004 PEL Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.6 Natural Gas . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.2 2.9 Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 2.1 2.5 1.6 1.4 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 Renewable/Other . . . . . . 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.9 Sources: IEO2005: Energy Information Administration (EIA), System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (2005). IEO2004:

EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004). PEL: Petroleum Economics, Ltd.,

World Long Term Oil and Energy Outlook (London, United Kingdom, March 2004).

176 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

addition of projection year 2000. In IEO91, forecasts most accurate of the forecasts for 1995, but its projection were no longer published for 1990, but forecasts for 2010 for OPEC and the other market economy countries was were added to the report. The projection horizon re- still more than 10 percent below the actual number.

mained the same until IEO96, when projection year 2015 was added. In 1998, the forecast was extended again, out Similarly to the year 1995 projections, year 2000 projec-to 2020. With IEO2003, the forecast period was extended tions were also consistently lower than actual 2000 data to 2025. in each of the IEOs published between 1986 and 1993 (Figure H3). The consumption estimates for the market Comparisons of Forecasts for Market Economies economies increased in each edition, from 265 quadril-Projections for market economies were made in the eight lion Btu in IEO86 to 292 quadrillion Btu in IEO93. As late issues of the IEO that were published between 1985 and 1993 (no IEO was published in 1988). Historical data for Figure H1. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1990 total regional energy consumption in 1990 show that the Energy Consumption in Market IEO projections from those early years were consistently Economies lower than the actual data for the market economies. For Actual 1990 242 the four editions of the IEO printed between 1985 and 1989 in which 1990 projections were presented, total pro-jected energy consumption in the market economies ran between 3 and 7 percent below the actual amounts pub- IEO89 234 lished in the International Energy Annual 2001 (Figure H1). IEO87 228 In addition, market economy projections for 1995 in the IEO86 225 1985 through 1993 IEO reports (EIA did not release fore-casts for 1995 after the 1993 report) were consistently IEO85 225 lower than the actual, historical 1995 data (Figure H2).

Most of the difference is attributed to those market econ- 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 omy countries outside the OECD. Through the years, EIAs economic growth assumptions for OPEC and Quadrillion Btu other market economy countries outside the OECD have Sources: Energy Information Administration, International been low. The 1993 forecast was, as one might expect, the Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various Table H9. Years Included in IEO Projections years).

by Edition, 1985-2005 Edition 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Figure H2. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 IEO85 . . . . x x Energy Consumption in Market IEO86 . . . . x x x Economies IEO87 . . . . x x x Actual 1995 274 IEO89 . . . . x x x IEO90 . . . . x x x IEO91 . . . . x x x IEO93 269 IEO92 . . . . x x x IEO92 268 IEO93 . . . . x x x IEO91 260 IEO94 . . . . x x x IEO90 258 IEO95 . . . . x x x IEO96 . . . . x x x x x IEO89 256 IEO97 . . . . x x x x IEO87 251 IEO98 . . . . x x x x x IEO86 245 IEO99 . . . . x x x x x IEO85 247 IEO2000 . . x x x x IEO2001 . . x x x x 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 IEO2002 . . x x x x Quadrillion Btu IEO2003 . . x x x x x Sources: Energy Information Administration, International IEO2004 . . x x x x Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, IEO2005 . . x x x x March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International Sources: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various years). years).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 177

as 1993, the IEO forecasts were underestimating con- for China, the FSU, and Eastern Europe, the remaining sumption of all energy sources in the market economies, CPE countriesnoted abovewere included in other by between 2 percent (oil) and 7 percent (natural gas and ROW.

nuclear power).

Comparisons of Forecasts for Year 1995 As noted above, in the 1994 edition of the IEO, the re- IEO90 marked the first release of a worldwide energy gional aggregation market economies was dropped consumption forecast. In IEO90 through IEO93, the altogether and replaced with delineation of member forecasts for worldwide energy demand in 1995 were countries of the OECD, Eurasia, and Rest of World between 1 and 4 percent higher than the actual amounts (ROW). As a result of that reorganization, it is not possi- consumed (Figure H4). Much of the difference can be ble to recreate a forecast for the CPE countries: except explained by the unanticipated collapse of the Soviet Union economies in the early 1990s. The IEO forecasters Figure H3. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 2000 could not foresee the extent to which energy consump-Energy Consumption in Market tion would fall in the FSU region. In IEO90, total energy Economies consumption in the FSU was projected to reach 67 qua-Actual 2000 306 drillion Btu in 1995. The projection was reduced steadily in the next three IEO reports, but even in IEO93 energy demand for 1995 in the FSU region was projected to be IEO93 292 53 quadrillion Btu, as compared with actual 1995 energy IEO92 290 consumption of 43 quadrillion Btua difference equiva-lent to about 5 million barrels of oil per day.

IEO91 280 IEO90 276 Forecasts for 1995 can also be compared in terms of their depiction of the fuel mix. Every IEO after 1990 projected IEO89 274 the share of each energy source relative to total energy IEO87 270 consumption within 2.6 percentage points of the actual IEO86 265 1995 distribution. The earliest IEOs tended to be too opti-mistic about the growth of coal use in the market econo-0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 mies (Figure H5) and too pessimistic about the recovery Quadrillion Btu of oil consumption after the declines in the early 1980s Sources: Energy Information Administration, International that followed the price shocks caused by oil embargoes Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, in 1973 and 1974 and the 1979-1980 revolution in Iran March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International (Figure H6). The IEO85 and IEO86 reports projected that Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various oil would account for only about 40 percent of total years).

Figure H5. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 Figure H4. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 Coal Consumption in Market World Energy Consumption Economies Actual 1995 366 Actual 1995 2,363 IEO93 2,326 IEO93 375 IEO92 2,270 IEO91 2,287 IEO92 377 IEO90 2,363 IEO91 374 IEO87 2,356 IEO86 2,382 IEO90 383 IEO85 2,411 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Quadrillion Btu Million Short Tons Sources: Energy Information Administration, International Sources: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various years). years).

178 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

energy consumption for the market economies in 1995, Union. Most of the projections for the FSU by fuel were whereas oil actually accounted for 45 percent of the total greater than the actual consumption numbers, with the in 1995. exception of hydroelectricity and other renewable resources (Figure H8). Natural gas use did not decline as The 1995 forecasts for world coal consumption that much as oil and coal use, because natural gas is a plenti-appeared in the IEOs printed between 1990 and 1993 ful resource in the region and was used extensively to were consistently high, between 5 and 17 percent higher fuel the domestic infrastructure; however, even the IEO than actual coal use (Figure H7), largely because of over- estimates for 1995 natural gas use were 18 to 26 percent estimates for the FSU and Eastern Europeregions that higher than the actual use.

experienced substantial declines in coal consumption during the years following the collapse of the Soviet The IEO projections for total energy consumption in China were below the actual 1995 consumption level in IEO90 (by 13 percent) and IEO91 (by 8 percent) but Figure H6. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 higher in IEO92 (by 6 percent) and about the same Oil Consumption in Market Economies in IEO93. The underestimates in the earlier IEOs bal-Actual 1995 60 anced, in part, the overestimates for the EE/FSU coun-tries; however, even the 4- to 17-percent underestimate of projected 1995 coal use in China could not make up IEO93 60 IEO92 59 Figure H8. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 IEO91 58 Energy Consumption in the IEO90 56 Former Soviet Union by Fuel Type IEO89 54 Percent Difference From Actual 1995 IEO87 53 IEO90 58 IEO86 51 IEO91 34 IEO92 22 Total IEO85 50 IEO93 25 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Million Barrels per Day IEO90 60 IEO91 36 Sources: Energy Information Administration, International IEO92 29 Oil Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, IEO93 27 March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various years). IEO90 22 IEO91 19 IEO92 16 Natural Gas Figure H7. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 IEO93 17 World Coal Consumption IEO90 58 Actual 1995 5,106 IEO91 37 IEO92 29 Coal IEO93 36 IEO93 5,439 IEO90 39 IEO91 36 IEO92 18 Nuclear IEO92 5,375 IEO93 21 IEO91 5,592 IEO90 8 IEO91 -12 Renewables/

IEO90 6,184 IEO92 -18 Other 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 IEO93 -12 Million Short Tons -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Sources: Energy Information Administration, International Sources: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various years). years).

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 179

for the 29- to 58-percent overestimate of FSU coal use. In forecasts of total world energy consumption for 2000 terms of other fuels, the IEO forecasts consistently over- were all above, but within 5 percent of, the actual total estimated Chinas natural gas consumption and under- (Figure H10). IEO97 provided the highest estimate of estimated its oil consumption. Nuclear power forecasts world energy use in 2000. This may seem surprising at were fairly close for China, within 5 percent of the actual first glance, but it is also true that the economic recession consumption (Figure H9). It is noteworthy, however, that would take hold in 1998 among the emerging econ-that consumption of natural gas and nuclear power was omies of southeast Asia had not occurred and was not quite small in 1995, so that any variation between actual foreseen in the IEO97 forecast. In fact, IEO97 overesti-historical consumption and the projections results in a mated year 2000 energy use in emerging Asia by 9 qua-large percentage difference. EIA consistently underesti- drillion Btu, or about 12 percent (Figure H11), and in mated economic growth in China. As late as 1993, EIA mature market Asia by 3 quadrillion Btu (9 percent).

expected GDP in China to grow by about 7.3 percent per year during the decade of the 1990s, whereas it actually grew by 10.7 percent per year between 1990 and 1995. Figure H10. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 2000 World Energy Consumption Comparisons of Forecasts for Year 2000 Actual 2000 399 Ten editions of the IEO report contained worldwide forecasts for the year 2000 (IEO90 through IEO99). The IEO99 403 IEO98 413 Figure H9. Comparison of IEO Forecasts with 1995 IEO97 416 Energy Consumption in China IEO96 407 by Fuel Type IEO95 403 IEO94 404 Percent Difference From Actual 1995 IEO93 410 IEO90 -13 IEO92 410 IEO91 -8 IEO91 402 IEO92 6 Total IEO93 1 IEO90 408 0 100 200 300 400 500 IEO90 -19 Quadrillion Btu IEO91 -25 IEO92 -25 Oil Sources: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, IEO93 -16 March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various IEO90 14 years).

IEO91 14 IEO92 14 Natural Gas IEO93 14 Figure H11. Comparison of IEO97 Forecasts with 2000 Energy Consumption by Region IEO90 -17 North America 119 IEO91 -15 118 IEO92 -10 Coal Western Europe 70 67 IEO93 -4 30 Industrialized Asia 28 IEO90 -3 EE/FSU 59 52 IEO91 5 Nuclear Developing Asia 91 IEO92 5 81 IEO93 -3 15 Middle East 20 IEO90 -14 Africa 13 12 IEO97 IEO91 -7 Renewables/

Central & South America 19 Actual 2000 IEO92 -2 Other 21 IEO93 -2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 Quadrillion Btu Sources: Energy Information Administration, International Sources: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, Energy Annual 2002, DOE/EIA-0219(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International March 2004), web site www.eia.doe.gov/iea/, and International Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484 (Washington, DC, various Energy Outlook 1997, DOE/EIA-0484(97) (Washington, DC, years). April 1997).

180 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005

Projections for the EE/FSU in IEO97 were also too opti- Eastern Europe and the other CPE countries (excluding mistic, overestimating the rate of economic recovery in China), where coal use in 2000 was overestimated by 202 the region and as a result overestimating the growth in percent in IEO90.

energy consumption by 12 quadrillion Btu (22 percent).

IEO97 did not anticipate the August 1998 devaluation of The year 2000 forecasts for oil, natural gas, and hydro-the Russian ruble and the economic recession that fol- electricity and other renewable energy sources were, for lowed in the FSU region. By IEO99, total EE/FSU energy the most part, higher than actual levels. In contrast, pro-use had been adjusted downward to 52 quadrillion jections for nuclear power were consistently lower than Btujust slightly lower than the regions actual con- the actual 2000 values. Interestingly, the forecasts for the sumption in 2000. United States were largely responsible for the underesti-mation. Even in IEO99the latest IEO that included The projections for year 2000 by fuel were mixed in projections for 2000analysts were expecting nuclear terms of accuracy. For all energy sources except coal, power to begin to decline. In IEO90 there was wide-total world consumption forecasts fell within 13 percent spread pessimism about the future of nuclear power in of the actual levels. As was the case with forecasts for the the mid-term, given the aftermath of Chernobyl and the years 1990 and 1995, world coal consumption projec- problems associated with nuclear waste disposal. In the tions were consistently high relative to actual consump- political climate of the early 1990s, IEO90 could not tion in 2000. The world coal forecast presented in IEO90 anticipate the life extensions and consistently improving was 30 percent higher than actual 2000 values. The fore- efficiencies that have allowed nuclear power plants to casts for the CPE countries were responsible for the large generate more electricity and operate with shorter discrepancy between projected IEO90 and actual coal downtimes for maintenance, even without expanding consumption in 2000. In fact, IEO90 projected that the their installed capacities.

market economies would consume 2,801 million short tons of coal in 2000, and the actual estimate for coal use The comparison of IEO projections and historical data in among the market economies was 2,969. However, in the context of political and social events underscores the the CPE countriesincluding the EE/FSUIEO90 pro- importance of those events in shaping the worlds jected that coal use would climb to 3,841 million short energy markets. Such comparisons also point out how tons in 2000, whereas actual coal consumption was only important a models assumptions are to the derivation 2,119 million short tons. of accurate forecasts. The political and social upheaval in the EE/FSU dramatically affected the accuracy of the Much of the discrepancy between the IEO90 projection projections for the region. If higher economic growth and actual 2000 coal consumption can be attributed to rates had been assumed for China, more accurate fore-the FSU. As noted above, IEO90 did not foresee the col- casts for that region might have been achieved. It is lapse of the Soviet regime in 1990 when the report pro- important for users of the IEO or any other projection jections were prepared. Indeed, coal use in the FSU in series to realize the limitations of the forecasts. Failing an IEO90 was expected to expand to 1,132 million short ability to predict future volatility in social, political, or tons in 2000, whereas in reality coal use in the FSU began economic events, the projections should be viewed as a to decline precipitously after 1990, hitting a low of 391 plausible path or trend for the future and not as a precise million short tons in 1998 before edging up somewhat to prediction of future events.

405 million short tons in 2000. The story was similar for Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 181

Appendix I System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE)

The projections of world energy consumption appearing the end-use demand-driven nature of SAGE are new to in this years International Energy Outlook (IEO) are based this years report.

on the Energy Information Administrations (EIAs) international energy modeling tool, System for the SAGE provides projections for 15 regions or countries, Analysis of Global Energy markets (SAGE). SAGE is an including the North American countries of the United integrated set of regional models that provide a technol- States, Canada, and Mexico; Western Europe; Japan; ogy-rich basis for estimating regional energy consump- Australia/New Zealand; Eastern Europe; the former tion. For each region, reference case estimates of 42 Soviet Union (FSU); China; India; South Korea; other end-use energy service demands (e.g., car, commercial developing Asia; the Middle East; Africa; and Central truck, and heavy truck road travel; residential lighting; and South America. An offline procedure is used to steam heat requirements in the paper industry) are develop projections for Russia in the FSU and for Brazil developed on the basis of economic and demographic in Central and South America.

projections. Projections of energy consumption to meet Projections of world oil prices over the forecast horizon the energy demands are estimated on the basis of each are provided to SAGE from EIAs International Energy regions existing energy use patterns, the existing stock Module, which is a submodule of the National Energy of energy-using equipment, and the characteristics of Modeling System (NEMS). Projections of world nuclear available new technologies, as well as new sources of energy consumption are derived from nuclear power primary energy supply.

electricity generation projections from EIAs Interna-Period-by-period market simulations aim to provide tional Nuclear Model (INM), PC Version (PC-INM). All each regions energy services at minimum cost by simul- U.S. projections are taken from EIAs Annual Energy Out-taneously making end-use equipment and primary look (AEO).

energy supply decisions. For example, in SAGE, if there is an increase in residential lighting energy service, A full description of the SAGE model is available in a either existing generation equipment must be used more two-volume set. The first volume provides a general intensively or new equipment must be installed. The understanding of the models design, theoretical basis, choice of generation equipment (type and fuel) incorpo- necessary user-defined assumptions, and output. It also rates analysis of both the characteristics of alternative lists the software necessary to develop and analyze the generation technologies and the economics of primary results of SAGE-based policy and energy market scenar-energy supply. ios. In addition, Volume I includes a Reference Guide, which explains each equation in detail. The second vol-The IEO provides projections of total world primary ume serves as a Users Guide for those actively develop-energy consumption, as well as projections of energy ing SAGE-based scenario analyses. The documentation consumption by primary energy type (oil, natural gas, is available on EIAs web site in the model documenta-coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric and other renewable tion section of Current Publications (http://www.eia.

resources) and projections of net electricity consump- doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html). SAGE documentation tion. Projections of carbon dioxide emissions resulting is also available as part of the documentation for the from fossil fuel use are also provided. All projections MARKAL family of models (http://www.etsap.org/

are computed in 5-year intervals through the year MRKLDOC-III_SAGE.pdf).

2025. Further, more detailed tables that emphasize Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 183

Appendix J Regional Definitions The six basic country groupings used in this report *Emerging Economies (78 percent of the 2005 world (Figure J1) are defined as follows: population):

• Mature Market Economies (15 percent of the 2005 - Emerging Asia (53 percent of the 2005 world popu-world population): North AmericaUnited States, lation)Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Canada, and Mexico; Western EuropeAustria, Bel- Cambodia (Kampuchea), China, Fiji, French Poly-gium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, nesia, Guam, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Nether- Kiribati, Laos, Malaysia, Macau, Maldives, Mongo-lands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzer- lia, Myanmar (Burma), Nauru, Nepal, New Caledo-land, and the United Kingdom; Mature Market nia, Niue, North Korea, Pakistan, Papua New AsiaJapan, Australia, and New Zealand. Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand,

• Transitional Economies (6 percent of the 2005 world Tonga, Vanuatu, and Vietnam.

population): Eastern Europe (EE)Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, - Middle East (4 percent of the 2005 world popula-Hungary, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia and tion)Bahrain, Cyprus, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Montenegro, Slovakia, and Slovenia; Former Soviet Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Union (FSU)Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Esto- Syria, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and nia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithu- Yemen.

ania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, - Africa (14 percent of the 2005 world population)

Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Figure J1. Map of the Six Basic Country Groupings Key Indus trialized Countries EE/FSU Developing As ia Middle Eas t Afric a Central and South Americ a Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005 185

Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Moldova, Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, St. Vincent/

Congo (Kinshasa), Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Grenadines, Samoa, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sey-Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, chelles, Slovakia, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, South Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Swe-Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, den, Switzerland, Tanzania, Thailand, Macedonia, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Reunion, Rwanda, Sao Tuvalu, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra United Kingdom, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Leone, Somalia, South Africa, St. Helena, Sudan, Venezuela, Vietnam, and Yemen.

Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda,

• Annex I Countries (countries participating in the Western Sahara, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

Kyoto Climate Change Protocol on Greenhouse Gas

- Central and South America (7 percent of the 2005 Emissions): Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, world population)Antarctica, Antigua and Bar- Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, buda, Argentina, Aruba, Bahama Islands, Barba- European Community, Finland, France, Germany, dos, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, British Virgin Islands, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Lat-Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, via, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, El Salvador, Falkland Islands, French Guiana, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Neth- United Kingdom.20 erlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Panama Republic, Par-aguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts-Nevis, St. Lucia, *European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, St. Vincent/Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uruguay, U.S. Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Virgin Islands, and Venezuela. Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, In addition, the following commonly used country and the United Kingdom.

groupings are referenced in this report:

• G8: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia,

• Countries that have ratified, accepted, acceded, or United Kingdom, and the United States.

approved the Kyoto Climate Change Protocol on Greenhouse Gas Emissions as of May 27, 2005: *North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

Albania, Algeria, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Member Countries: Canada, Mexico, and the United Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Bangla- States.

desh, Barbados, Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, *Organization for Economic Cooperation and Bolivia, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Development (OECD): Australia, Austria, Belgium, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Republic, Congo (Kinshasa), Denmark, Djibouti, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, South Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the Finland, France, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, United Kingdom, and the United States.

Greece, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Guyana, Hon-duras, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, *Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kiribati, (OPEC): Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Emirates, and Venezuela.

Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall

• Pacific Rim Developing Countries: Hong Kong, Islands, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Mongolia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Morocco , Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru, Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.

Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, North Korea, Norway, Oman, Paki- *Persian Gulf: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, stan, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

20 Turkey and Belarus are Annex I nations that have not ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change and did not commit to quantifiable emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol. In 2001, the United States withdrew from the Protocol. In 2002, Australia announced that it will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol unless the United States does.

186 Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2005