ML20197H905
| ML20197H905 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Vogtle  |
| Issue date: | 07/24/1984 |
| From: | Johnston W Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| To: | Muller D Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20197G423 | List: |
| References | |
| FOIA-84-663 NUDOCS 8408010065 | |
| Download: ML20197H905 (4) | |
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Central File SAB Reading File SAB Plant File JUL 2 41984 BRichter DCleary WRegan WJohnston a
w fiEMORN;DUM FOR: Daniel R. Iblier, Assistant Director for Radiation Protection, DSI FR01:
William V. Johnston, Assistant Director l'aterials, Chemical & Envirornental Technology, DE
SUBJECT:
REGIONAL INDUSTP.IAL IMPACTS Of SI!iULATED ACCIDENTS AT V0GTLE Please find attached draft input on the regional industrial impacts at Vogtle for AEB's section on Environment'al Impacts of Postulated Accidents in the EIS.
Should you have any questions, please contact p
/
Brian Richter on extension 28936.
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William V. Johnston, Assistant Director liaterials, Chenical, Environmental Technology Division of Engineering
Attachment:
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.s REGIOML INDUSTRIAL If1 PACTS A severe accident which requires the interdiction and/or decontamination of land areas will force numerous businesses to temporarily or pennanently cl ose. These closures would have additional econonic effects beyond the contaminated areas through the disruption of regional markets and sources of supplies.
This section provides estimates of these impacts which were made using :
(1) the RSS consequence model discussed elsewhere in this section, and (2) the Regional Input-Output Modeling system, (RIMS II),
developed by the Bureau of Econanic Analysis (BEA).
The industrial impact model developed by BEA takes into account contam-ination levels of a physically affected area defined by the RSS conse-quence model._ Contamination levels define an interdicted area immediately surrounding the plant, followed by an grea of decontamination, an area of crop interdiction and finally an area of milk interdiction.
(The industry-specific impacts are estimated for the four accident sequences listed in Table 5.6.)
Assumptions used in the analysis include:
In the interdicted area all industries would lose total pro-duction for more than a year, In the decontamination zone there would be a three-month loss in nonagricult0ral output; a one-year loss 'in all crop output, E-except no loss in greenhouse, nursery, and forestry output; a three-month loss in dairy output; and a six-month loss in live-stock and poultry output, In the crop interdicted area there wouTd be no loss in non-agricul tural output; a one-year loss in agricul,tural output, except no loss in greenhouse, nursery, and forestry output; no loss in livestock and poultry output; and a two-month loss of dairy output, and In the milk interdiction zone there would te only a two-month loss in dairy output.
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The estimates of industrial impacts are made for an economic study area which consists of a physically affected area and a physically unaffected An accident which causes an adverse impact in the physically area.
affected area, for example the loss of agricul tural output, could also adversely affect output in the physically _ unaffected area, for example food processing.
In addition. to the direct impacts in the physically affected area the following additional impacts would occur in the physically unaffected area:
- 1) decreased demand (in the physically affected area) for output produced in the physically unaffected trea; and
- 2) decreased availability of production inputs purchased fran the physically affected area.
e Only the impacts occurring during the first year following an accident are considered.
The longer tenn consegiences are not considered because they will widely vary depending on the level and nature of efforts to mitigate the accident consequences and to decontaminate the physically affected areas.
The estimates assume no compensating effects such as the use of unused capacity in the physically unaffected area to offset the initial lost production in the physically affected area or income payments to indi-viduals displaced from their jobs that would enable them to maintain their spending habi ts.
These canpensating effects would reduce the industrial impacts.
Realistically, these compensating effects would occur over a lengthy period.. The estimates using no canpensating effects are the best measures of first year econanic impacts.
Table 5 presents the regional economic output and employment impacts and corresponding expected risks associated with the, four different release ca tegories.
The estimated overall risk value using cutput losses as the measure of accident consequences, expressed in a per-reactor year basis,-
i s $4,842.
This number is conposed of direct impacts of $2,384 in the non-agricultural sector and $1,929 in the agricultural sector, and indirect impacts of $529 from decreased export and supply. constraints.
The corresponding expected caployment loss per reactor year is less than 0.3 jobs.
TABLE 5 b~
Regional Economic Impacts of Output and Employment Expected Loss-in Relea se Ilind Direct Indirect To tal Loss in Output per Peactol Ca teg o rie s*
Direction Non-Ag ricul tu ral Agricul tu ral Employmen t Year
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( Mi l l i o n s o f 19 80. $ ) ----------------
(Annualized (1980 I),
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Ma x i m um L o s s e s - - -- - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - j o b s )
1 PM 516 190 87 793 42000 42 2
Ntl 516 190 87 793 42000 833 3
PM 395 35 53 483 26000-76
^
4 SW 0
2 0
2
<1000 11
flinimumLosses--------------------------------------------,-------------
1 E
4 16 2
22 1000 2
2 E
4 16 2
22 1000 44 3
E 0
8 1
9
<1000 3
4 14 directions
'O 0
0 0
0 0
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Ex p e c t ed L o s s e s Pe r Re a c t o r Ye a r- - - - - - - - - - -- -- - -- -- - - - -- -- - - - - - - - - - ----- - -- - - -- -- -
ALL 107 87 24 218
<1 l
2 ALL 2147 1732 475 4354
<l 3
ALL 130 94 28 252
<1 4
ALL 0
16 2
18
<1 ALL ALL 2384 1929 529
, 4842
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'Priease Categories include:
1.
Event V
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TMLB' 3.
NR3 4.
NR7 "Not applicable, as the expected loss is already expressed in the " Total" column for this portion of the table.
Sou rce:
Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce with assumptions supplied by the 11.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
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