ML20197H899
| ML20197H899 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Vogtle  |
| Issue date: | 07/19/1984 |
| From: | Regan W Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| To: | Hulman L Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20197G423 | List: |
| References | |
| FOIA-84-663 NUDOCS 8408010035 | |
| Download: ML20197H899 (2) | |
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JUL 191984 Central File SAB Reading FiTe N # ^,
SAB Plant File NFields AToalston I
WRegan lie 10RA4DUit FOR:
L. G. Hulnan, Chief Accident Evaluation Branch, DSI FR0ft:
151 H. Pagan, Jr., Chief Site Analysis Branch, DE
SUBJECT:
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO AED FOR EVALUATIOll OF If! PACTS OF PLANT ACCIDENTS-INPtIT TO V0GTLE DES The above captioned input is subnitted by the Antitrust and Econo 11c Analysis Section of ray tranch. Any cuestions you have ny be directed to Nick Fields on X24744.
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D1. H. Pegan, Jr., Chief Site /nalysis Cranch j
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e Vogtle DES Other Econanic Risks There are other risks that can be expressed in monetary terms, but are not included in the cost calculations discussed in the section on econanic and societal impacts.
These impacts, which would result from an accident at the facility, produce added costs to the public (i.e., ratepayers, taxpayes, and/or shareholders).
These cost would accrue from decontamination and r pair of the facility and fran increased expenditures for replacement power while the unit is out of service.
Experience with such costs is being accunulated as a result of the accident at the Three fille Island facility.
If an accident occurs during the first year of operation of Vogtle Unit No.1 (beginning in 1987), the econonic penalty to which the public would be exposed would be approximately $1850 million (1987 dollars) for decontamination and restoration including replacement of the damaged nuclear fuel.
This estimate is tesed on a conservative (high) 10% annual, escalation of the 1980 econanic penalty detemined for the Three Mile ' Island facility (Conptroller General.1981-D1D-81 -106). Alti.ough insurance would cover $300 million or more of the $1850 million accident cost, the insurance is not credited against this cost because the arithmetic product of the insurance payment and the risk probability would theoretically balance the insurance premium.
In addition, the staff estimates that system fuel costs would increase by ap-proximately $163 million (constant 1987 dollars) for replacement power during each. goc Vogtle Unit 1 is out of service.
This estimate assumes that the unit will operate at an average 60% capacity factor and that replacement energy will be provided primarily fran coal-fired generation.
If the unit does not operate for 8 years, replacement power cost could amount to $1304 million (constant 1987 dollars).
The pr as 10 gbability of a core melt or severe reactor damage is assumed to be as high per reactor year (this accident probability is interided to account for all severe core-damage accidents leading to large econonic consequences for the owner and not 'just ' leading to significant offsite consecuences).
Multip ying the sum of the pr,eviously estimated repair and replacenent power costs o[f approximately $3154 million for an acc year of its operation by the above 10 jdent to the unit during the initial probability, results in an econanic risk of approxima tely 5315,400 (1987 dollars) during the first full year (1987 ' dollars, or for the purpose of conparison with other costs presented in this se.ction, $162,000 1980 dol la rs).
This is also the approximate econonic risk (in constant 1987 dollars) to Vogtle Unit fio.1 during each subsequent year of operation; although this amount will gradually dec,rease a', the nuclear unit depreciates in value and operates a t a reduced a,11ual capacity factor.
The annual econanic risk to Vogtle Unit flo. 2 i.s also 5315,400 (constant 1987 dollars) resul ting from its physic,al similarity and proximity to Unit fio. 1.
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