ML18038A516

Evacuation Travel Time Estimates for Ja Fitzpatrick/Nine Mile Point Emergency Planning Zone.

ML18038A516
Person / Time
Site:	Nine Mile Point, FitzPatrick
Issue date:	02/29/1992
From:	PARSONS, BRINCKERHOFF, QUADA & DOUGLAS, INC.
To:
Shared Package
ML18038A515	List: ML18038A514 ML18038A516
References
NUDOCS 9207020297
Download: ML18038A516 (308)

Text

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~ 0 stl EVACUATIONTRAVEL I IME ESTIMATES FOR THE JAMES A. FITZPATRICK/NINEQIL'E POINT

'4t, EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE 4

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Prepared for:

NEW YORK POWER'AUTHORITY Prepared by:

PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF QUADE 5 DGUGLAS INC.

February 1992 (Supersedes May 1984 Report)

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LIST OF FIGURES Ficiure Tiite Pacle Location Map. l-3 2 10-Mile Radius and Actual EPZ Boundaries II-18 3 Sector A-90 Degrees NE, 2-Mile Radius II-19 Sector B -90 Degrees SE, 2-Mile Radius. II-20 Sector C- 90 Degrees SW, 2-Mile Radius II-21 Sector D - 90 Degrees NW, 2-Mile Radius II-22 7 Sector E - 90 Degrees NE, 5-Mile Radius . II-23 8 Sector F - 90 Degrees SE, 5-Mite Radius .II-24 9 Sector G - 90 Degrees SW, 5-Mile Radius . II-25 10 Sector H - 90 Degrees NW, 5-Mile Radius ..................................................II-26 Sector I - 90 Degrees NE, 10-Mile Radius .................~...................................II-27 12 Sector J - 90 Degrees SE, 10-Mile-Radius . II-28 13 Sector K - 90 Degrees SW, 10-Mile Radius .................................................'..ll-29 14 Sector L- 90 Degrees NW, 10-Mile Radius .II-30 15 Sector M - 360 Degrees, 10-Mile Radius . II-31 16 1991 Permanent Resident Population Estimates, . It-32 By Segment 17 1991 Permanent Resident Population Estimates (Excluding. . II-33 Institutional Population), By Segment 18 1991 Permanent Resident Population Estimates (Excluding. . II-34 Institutional Population) With Autos, By Segment 19 1991 Permanent Resident Population Estimates ~ II-35 (Excluding Institutional Population) Without Autos, By Segment 20 1991 Transient Population Estimates, By Segment. .II-36

LIST OF FIGURES (Continued)

~Fi ure Title Pacae 21 1991 Special Facilities Population Estimates, .II-37 By Segment 22 Evacuation Route Links . III-9 23 1991 Total Vehicle Estimates, By Segment ..~................ ~ .~..........:..... ~ . ~ ~ ... III-10

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24 Population Clearing 10-Mile EPZ Under School-in-Session ....IV-12 Scenario (Normal - Adverse) 25 Population Clearing 10-Mile EPZ Under School-Not-in-Session.... ..... IV-13 Scenario (Normal - Adverse) 26 Population Clearing 10-Mile EPZ Under Summer Weekend/Holiday ...~.........IV-14 Scenario (Normal - Adverse) 27 Population Clearing 10-Mile EPZ Under Winter Weekend/Holiday .................IV-15 Scenario (Normal - Adverse) 28 Population Clearing 10-Mile EPZ Under Nighttime... .IV-16 Scenario (Normal - Adverse) 29 Population Clearing 10-Mile EPZ Under Evening ~ . . IV-17 Scenario (Normal - Adverse) 30 Population Clearing 10-Mile EPZ Under Classic Weekend. .IV-18 Scenario (Normal - Adverse) 31 Population Clearing 10-Mile EPZ Under Harborfest Weekend ......... ....IV-19 Scenario (Normal - Adverse) 32 Critical Bottleneck Links, School-in-Session Scenario ... ~ . IV-20 33 Critical Bottleneck Links, Nighttime Scenario ...... IV-21

I. INTRODUCTION In Criteria for Pre aration and Evaluation of Radiolo ical Emer enc Res onse Plans and Pre aredness in Su ort of Nuclear Power Plants (NUREG-0654, FEMA-REP- ':

Rev. 1, November.1980; hereafter referred to as NUREG-0654), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) called upon power plant licensees as well as state and local agencies to prepare evacuation time estimates for the population within a 10-mile radius plume exposure pathway referred to as the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). The approach for preparing the evacuation time estimates is documented in Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654.

This report is prepared in response to Appendix 4 and presents estimates of the evacuation travel time for the 10-mile EPZ surrounding the James"A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point site in Oswego County, New York, This report is an update of an evacuation time estimate report prepared in May 1984 for the same nuclear power facilities. Since the May 1984 evacuation travel time estimates were prepared, four significant factors affecting evacuation time have changed, including:

Availability of 1990 Census Data - The earlier travel time estimates were primarily based on two sources of demographic data the 1980 Census projections of 1984 population, and Oswego County Planning Department projections. More accurate and detailed 1990 Census data is now available to update 1991 population data, however, the 1990 Census does not contain employment statistics and estimates of vehicles per household at this time. As described later in this report, other sources of data were used to update employment information.

2. On-Site Construction - Construction at the Nine Mile Point Unit 2 Power Plant has been completed. Up to 6,000 construction workers were employed during the mid-1980's. This sizable segment of employment is no longer considered during evacuation scenarios; however, some on-site personnel are included in the evacuation estimates as determined by the New York Power Authority (NYPA) and Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation (NMPC).

3. Changes to the Oswego County Radiological Emergency Preparedness Plan (REPP) - Reception center assignments have been modified. All special facilities are now evacuated to facilities in the greater Syracuse area. Different bus companies are now participating in the plan, and some bus routes have been modified. These revisions are considered in this update of the evacuation travel time estimates.

4. Harborfest and Classic Weekend evacuation scenarios are includecf in this report. The "worst case" scenario to be evacuated during Harborfest would occur during the fireworks display which is estimated to be the peak period of attendance. Peak attendance during the Classic Weekend is anticipated to occur during a Sunday afternoon.

The evacuation travel time estimates included herein are based on the emergency response implementation procedures in the REPP. The population data, special facility information; evacuation routes, vehicle inventories, and other parameters necessary to determine evacuation time are consistent with the most recent version (April, 1991) of the plan. As such, this report is an integral component of the Oswego County REPP, and provides valuable information to be used by decision makers in the event of an incident at the James A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point site.

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A. ~Ai I-The James A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point nuclear power site is located on the shore of Lake Ontario in the Town of Scriba, Oswego County, New York. The site consists of the James A. FitzPatrick Nuclear Power Plant (JAFNPP) and the Nine Mile Point Nuclear Stations (NMPNS), Units 1 and 2. The JAFNPP is located adjacent to and east of the NMPNS. The site is located approximately 7 miles northeast of the City of Oswego, 36 miles northwest of Syracuse, 55 miles east of Rochester, and 135 miles east of Buffalo. Throughout this report, the acronym JAF/NMP refers to the site of all three nuclear facilities, not to a particular power plant. The location of JAF/NMP is shown in Figure 1.

B. General Assum tions and Methodolo The general assumptions and methodologies used to prepare these evacuation travel time estimates are detailed in the various sections of this report or in its appendices. For example, population information is summarized in Section II. Roadway capacity information and vehicle availability are summarized in Section III. The actual evacuation travel times are presented in two formats and summarized in two different report locations:

1. By Sector, for the longest and shortest evacuation time scenarios, in Section IV.

2. By Emergency Response Planning Area (ERPA), for eight different evacuation scenarios, in Appendix G. These scenarios are for a full EPZ evacuation and include:

0 School-in-Session 0 School-not-in-Session 0 Summer/Holiday Weekend 0 Winter/Holiday Weekend 0 Evening 0 Nighttime 0 Classic Weekend 0 Harborfest

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II. DEMAND ESTIMATION This section of the report discusses'the demographic analysis performed for the JAF/NMP EPZ. The basic objective of the analysis is to determine the number, location, and temporal characteristics of the population to be evacuated. Three population categories have been considered: permanent residents, transients, and persons in special facilities, as specified in NUREG-0654. The population categories have been analyzed for various geographic areas as discussed below.

A. Emer enc Plannin Zone Sectors Se ments and Subareas Emer en Plannin Z ne As shown in Figure 2, the plume exposure pathway EPZ is defined by an irregularly shaped boundary located approximat';Iy 10 miles or further from the JAF/NMP site. The perimeter of the EPZ follows physical and/or political boundaries as much as practical to facilitate recognition of the boundary by the public. The EPZ encompasses, where reasonable, entire political subdivisions to minimize the segregation that would occur if a true 10-mile radius boundary were used to define the EPZ. Figure 2 shows both the actual 10-mile radius EPZ and the approximate 10-mile radius EPZ (included in the Oswego County REPP and used in calculating the evacuation travel time estimates), superimposed on a reduced composite New York State Department of Transportation planimetric map of the region. The map shows major political boundaries, transportation networks, and topographical features.

~ecto re The EPZ was subdivided into areas with approximate two-, five-, and 10- mile radii from the JAP/NMP site, as specified in Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654. The two-, five, and 10-mile, radii areas were further subdivided into approximate 90 quadrants with north-south and east-west axes. The areas defined by both the radii and quadrants are called Sectors.

Sectors are comprised of smaller units called Emergency Response Planning Areas (ERPAs), which also generally follow political and/or physical boundaries. An ERPA is the fundamental planning area identified in the Oswego County REPP. Each ERPA, as a unit, would follow a specific protective response action in the event of an incident at the JAF/NMP site. ERPAs, in turn, are further subdivided into traffic zones, which represent population clusters in particular geographic areas which follow specified evacuation routes leaving the EPZ. (For a more detailed discussion of the ERPAs and traffic zones, see Section III.Aand Appendices A and D of this report.)

P The Sectors, therefore, approximate the divisions specified in NUREG-0654 without dividing densely populated political subdivisions. Each Sector is comprised of one or more ERPAs. The Sectors are defined as follows:

Sectors A B C and D - Four approximately 90 quadrants comprised of ERPAs generally within a two-mile radius.

Sectors E F G and H - Four approximately 90 quadrants comprised of ERPAs generally within a five-mile radius.

A Sectors I J K and I - Four approximately 90 quadrants comprised of ERPAs within the 10-mile EPZ.

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Sector M - a 360 Sector encompassing the entire 10-mile EPZ.

The Sectors and their component ERPAs are listed in Table 1 and illustrated in Figures 3.through 15. Descriptions of the ERPA boundaries are presented in Appendix'A of this report.

r Se ment andSu re Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654 specifies that all population and evacuation time estimate analyses be presented by Sector, as described above. However, as specified in Section J.10.b of NUREG-0654, population estimates have also been prepared for.a different geographic breakdown of the area comprised of Segments and Subareas.

The Segments are radial areas of 22-1/2 each, with the center line of the northern Segment being true north from the following coordinates located adjacent to the Nine Mile Point Unit 2 reactor building:

. o Latitude: N 43 31'7.497 Sec o Longitude: W 76 24'6.735 Sec The 16 radial'Segments intersect with three concentric rings lying from 0 to 2 miles, 2 to 5 miles, and 5 to 10 miles from the Unit 2 reactor building to form 48 Subareas within the 10-mile radius area. It is noted that the Segment and Subarea. boundaries are;-

not irregularly shaped because they follow polar coordinate specifications.

The plume exposure pathway EPZ is irregular and extends generally further than 10 miles from the JAF/NMP site. The outermost Subarea boundaries are defined by a

. true~10-mile radius. Therefore, a portion of land exists between the outermost Subareas and the plume EPZ. 'The population in this area is thus included in Sector estimates, but not included in Subarea estimates.

The following is a description of the methodology and sources used to derive permanent resident, transient, and special facilities population estimates for the various.

geographic areas discussed above. Estimates of three population categories are presented in this report as baseline estimates in order to provide the largest possible figure for each category. The estimates, therefore, are not additive for determination of the total population at any given point in time because the data may represent various times of day for each of the subgroups. For example, the largest estimate for the special facilities population represents a weekday when school is in session. The permanent resident population, on the other hand, is at its largest at nighttime when most people are at home and businesses and schools are closed. However, to calculate evacuation

. travel times, the baseline estimates presented herein were adjusted for each population category to coincide with the specific, time-based scenario under study. (The scenarios are discussed further in Section IV.A of this report.)

B. Permanent Resident Po ulation

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Permanent residents, as defined in Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654, are those persons who reside in the EPZ, including schoolchildren, but excluding persons residing

-"'n"institutions identified as special facilities in the Oswego County REPP and Section II.D of this report. This definition of permanent residents differs from the U.S. Department of Commerce - Bureau of the Census, which includes persons living in institutions as part of the permanent resident population. Therefore, two separate estimates of the

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4 permanent resident population (including and excluding the population living in institutions) are provided in this report.

The 1990 Census data was used to determine the 1991 permanent resident population;in the EPZ.,Census. information is now available in block-level detail for Oswego County. The Census block and tract boundaries were superimposed on a map delineating the traffic zones and ERPA boundaries. For the v'ast majority of cases, individual Census blocks are entirely located within a particular traffic zone. Where blocks are located in more than one traffic zone, the proportion in each zone was determined by the National Planning Data Corporation (NPDC).. This approach results in an adequate determination of population location.

The population data presented in this report is for the year 1991. Growth factors were applied to the 1990 Census population data to estimate the current permanent

. resident population in the EPZ. These growth factors were calculated by the NPDC by estimating the 1990- 1991 rates of change in household counts in the EPZ on a Census tract level. A 1991 estimate of household size for each tract was then applied to the estimated number of households to determine the 1991 population in each tract. The NPDC household size variable accounted for factors such as marriage patterns, divorces, increased longevity of the elderly, housing availability, and birth rates. Growth factors were calculated for the portion of Oswego County in the EPZ by dividing 1991 Census tract population by 1990 Census tract population. These growth factors were then applied to 1990 population data,(for appropriate Census blocks within a given tract)<

to estimate 1991 permanent resident population on a block level basis.

Population estimates were adjusted for the traffic zones which include the SUNY Oswego Campus and those located in the City of Oswego on the western side of the Oswego'River. The permanent resident population estimates for the traffic zone which includes the SUNY Oswego Campus were increased to account for approximately 4,000 students who reside in the campus dormitories. The 1990 Census was conducted during the summer when the dormitories were relatively empty. Hence, the permanent resident population estimates for this traffic zone were increased. In a similar manner, population estimates for traffic zones located in Oswego on the western'side of the Oswego River were increased by 1,500 people to account for students living off-campus which would not have been counted as part of the 1990 Census.

in all cases, population estimates were developed at the traffic zone level by adding data for individual Census blocks. Traffic zone estimates were then added to provide ERPA estimates; similarly, ERPA estimates were summed to produce Sector estimates of population. The estimates for the 1991 permanent resident population are summarized by Sector in Table 2. Appendix A (Table A-1) presents 1991 permanent resident population summarized by ERPA.

Estimates of the permanent resident population. with and without automobiles.

have also been prepared, as specified in NUREG-0654. The breakdown of the permanent resident population into persons with and without automobiles is required as input to the evacuation travel time estimate analysis, and was calculated in the following manner.

The 1990 Census provides block-group level data on the average household size, and on the number of households with no automobiles, and those households with one or more automobiles. The total number of households in each block-group was determined by dividing the total population by the appropriate household size factor.

The resulting number of households in each block-group was then subdivided into

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1 households with automobiles and households without automobiles. Household size factors were then re-applied to calculate the population with and without automobiles.

The 1990 Census data on household size was thus used as the auto occupancy factor, and varied from Census block-group to Census block-group. By dividing the number of persons with an automobile by the auto occupancy factor, the number of automobiles used by people evacuating from their homes was determined. Implicit in this calculation is the assumption that families owning automobiles would use only one vehicle during an evacuation from their homes. During an evacuation under a weekday daytime scenario when parents may be at work, those families owning multiple vehicles

, were assumed to use them when evacuation trips originated from different locations (such as work or home).

It has been assumed that'50% of the permanent resident population who do not have access to an automobile will be evacuated by friends or neighbors in their automobile. This concept is known as ridesharing. Appendix H documents actual evacuation scenarios throughout North America within the past 12 years wherein a great majority of transit dependent residents were evacuated by ridesharing.

The estimated permanent resident population with and without automobiles, and the number of automobiles are summarized by Sector in Table 2. The transit dependent population those persons without automobiles or those without access to an automobile'- are anticipated to be, evacuated by bus and other emergency vehicles, as, described later in this report (see Section III.C and Section III.D).

C. Transient Po ulation The transient population includes employees not residing within the EPZ, people staying at hotels and motels in the EPZ, and visitors to parks and recreational areas within the EPZ boundary. The estimates of transient population are summarized by Sector in Table 3, Each of the transient population components were estimated in a different manner. Parks and recreational areas such as beaches and campgrounds were inventoried by the Oswego County Emergency Management Office. The owners and/or operators of these facilities were contacted by the EMO. Population estimates for these sites were obtained through this inventory process. Population estimates for hotels and motels were assumed to include two persons for each hotel or motel room located within the EPZ. The 1991 Oswego County Accommodations Guide lists 16 establishments within the EPZ which includes a total of 337 rooms. This translates into 674 possible transients for hotel or motel accommodations at any given time within the EPZ.

Because employment data is not yet available from the 1990 Census, estimates of employment were derived using past and current New York State Department of Labor, employment estimates. County-wide average employment estimates were obtained by industry type for each year between 1980 and 1990. March 1991 data, which is the most current available information from the Department of Labor, was also obtained. These estimates indicate that the average county-wide employment has remained basically the same since 1984. (An actual decrease of 162 employees was estimated.) Further evaluation shows'that the construction industry has lost approximately 5000 jobs between 1984 and 1991 while the government, retail, services, and transportation and, public utility industries have increased employment by roughly 5,000 jobs.

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Many of the construction jobs have been lost as a result of the completion of the Nine Mile Point Unit 2 complex located within the EPZ. Assuming that construction of the NMP complex was completed in 1984, average employment throughout Oswego County has actually increased roughly 2,4% a year between 1984 and 1991.

To obtain 1991 employment estimates within the EPZ, 1984 employment numbers were increased at a rate of 2.4% a year from 1984. This approach results in an estimated employment population of 11,777 in the EPZ. This number was then compared to estimates obtained from the New York State Department of Labor which encompass areas including all of the City of Oswego, and Townships of Oswego, Mexico, Volney, Minetto, Scriba, and parts of New Haven and Palermo.Townships. This area and the 10-mile EPZ overlap in many areas and therefore represents a reasonable comparison of estimated 1991 employment population. It was found that the Department of Labor estimates were slightly higher than the employment estimate for the 10-mile EPZ. This can be expected as the Townships of Oswego and Volney are more densely populated and built-up than those areas in the eastern areas of the EPZ. Table A-1 in Appendix A presents 1991 transient population summarized by ERPA.

It was assumed for the purpose of the travel time estimate analysis that 100 percent of the employees working in the EPZ commute by automobile. This conservative assumption placed the maximum number of vehicles on the evacuation routes when determining the evacuation travel time estimates. An assumed automobile occupancy'factor of 1.1 was applied to the-1991 employment estimates to derive the number of vehicles used by employees to evacuate.

D. S ecial Facilities Po ulation

-'Special facility residents" include'persons in hospitals and other health care facilities, nursing homes, schools (including public and private, day care, nursery, elementary, middle, and high), Universities, day camps, and correctional facilities.

Special facilities located in the EPZ and pertinent data about them are listed in Appendix .

B of this report.. Residents of the universities and nursing homes constitute the institutional population. As shown on Table 6, they were subtracted from the permanent resident population to determine the permanent resident population excluding institutions, as required in NUREG-0654 and described earlier.

All population and vehicle data for special facilities were obtained through telephone and/or letter contact with the individual facilities. The'Oswego County Emergency Management Office contacted each of these facilities to obtain up-to-date information used in this report. Any special transportation, such as buses, wheelchair equipped vehicles, and ambulances, required to evacuate the special was,considered in calculating the evacuation travel time estimates., Special.

facilities'opulations facility populations for Sectors are, presented in Table 4.

E. Po ulationb Se mentand Subarea Population estimates by 22-1/2 Segments and Subareas are presented and listed for the permanent resident population (including and excluding institutional population, with and without automobiles), for the transient population, and for the special facilities'population in Tables 5 through 10 and on Figures 16 through 21.

The sources and methodology used to determine the populations by Segment and Subarea are the same as those used in calculating Sector estimates. However, data was aggregated according to the specified polar coordinate system rather than by

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ERPA. The estimates made for Subareas were summed to provide estimates for the 22-1/2 Segments out to the actual 10-mile radius boundary. As discussed earlier in Section II.A, people located in the strip of land which exists between the outermost Subareas and the plume exposure pathway EPZ boundary will be included in Sector population, totals, but will, not be, included in Segment population totals. Thus, totals by Segment are generally less than or equal to totals by Sector because=of the population residing in the area between the actual 10-mile radius and the approximate 10-mile EPZ boundary.

F. S ecial Event Po ulation Oswego County hosts two major events each year within the 10-mile EPZ. The first event, Harborfest, occurs over a 4-day period in July, while the second event, Classic Weekend, occurs during the Labor Day Weekend in September.- ll

1. ~Harborfe t attracts considerable attendance from residents in and beyond Oswego County. In 1990, the Greater Oswego Chamber of Commerce conducted an economic impact study of Harborfest on the Community of Oswego and estimated total attendance at 92,900 over the 4-day event. The largest concentration of attendees occurs during Saturday night for the fireworks display in the Harbor area off Wright's Landing. Consequently, this scenario was simulated for evacuation purposes to represent a "worst case" scenario.

It is estimated that approximately 55,370 people attend the Fireworks display, exclusive of the local residents, and therefore require evacuation from the area. This figure was derived by estimating three components of the fireworks attendance - land attendance, bused attendance, and boat attendance. Land attendance was estimated as follows:

o It was assumed that 59% of the total Harborfest attendance occurs during Saturday. This figure was based on traffic counts conducted along Route

'104 in Oswego by the City of Oswego Department of Public Works.

o The aforementioned survey that was conducted by the Greater Oswego

'hamber of Commerce showed that 69% of the people who attended Harborfest attended the fireworks display. Hence, the population arriving by private vehicle can be estimated to be 37,820.

Harborfest officials have estimated that 3,100 vehicles use the parking areas located at the Jamesway, Ames, and Oswego Plazas and SUNY Campus. These people are then bused to the fireworks. Assuming three passengers per vehicle, this accountsf for 9,300 people.. In addition, attendees at the Oswego Speedway will begin to be bused

.to the fireworks after the last race is over at 7:30. It is estimated that 25% of the raceway attendees would attend the fireworks, or approximately 2,250 people. Therefore, the total bused attendance is estimated at 11,550.

The Coast Guard has estimated that up to 1,200 boats anchor in the harbor area to attend the fireworks. They have also estimated that five passengers (on average) are on each-boat which results in a boat'attendance of 6,000 passengers. Adding the private vehicle, bused, and boat attendance components results in a fireworks attendance of approximately 55,370, in addition to the local residents.

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2. The Cl ssi Weeken is held at the Oswego Speedway over a 3-day period during Labor Day weekend. Based on information provided by Classic Weekend representatives, it has been assumed that the peak period for evacuation purposes will occur on a Sunday afternoon. This period represents the peak activity for the event.

During. this. time period, representatives of the event have estimated the following breakdown of people at the speedway:

o 9,000 attendees in the grandstand (3 to 4 arrive per car) o 500 people in the pit area o 40 cars per class (with 5 to 6 people/crew) o 30 tow trucks with 2-people per truck o 10 to 12 firemen o 20 to 22 EMT's o 5 Policemen o 'pproximately 40 in-house people (i.e. -'vendors and concession people).

A majority of the attendees arrive from outside of the local area. This is evident by the number of recreational vehicles which stay overnight adjacent to the speedway. It has been estimated by Classic Weekend representatives that approximately 400 vehicles or 2,000 attendees stay overnight adjacent to the speedway. Ultimately, this results in an approximate"on-site population of 11,879 to be evacuated during an emergency.

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TABLE 1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SECTORS AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANNING AREAS Figure Approximate Emergency Response

~Numb r ~S( tor* ~Radiu +~rant Pl nnln Area ERPA A 2 mile NE 1 27 2 mile SE 1 2

~ 5 2 mile SW 1,3,26 D 2 mile. NW 1,26 5 mile NE 127 5 mile SE 1,2,4,5,9,10,27 5 mile SW 1,3,5,6,10,11,26 IO 5 mile NW 1,26 10 mile 1,27,29, 12 10 mile SE 1,2,4,5,7-10,14-20,27,29 13 10 mile SW 1,3,5,6, I 0-13,19-25,26,28 14 10 mile NW 1,26,28 10 mile ALL 1-29

• The land portions of each Sector were included in the evacuation travel time estimate analysis. ERPAs 23-25 are located on the Oswego River; ERPAs 26;29 are located on Lake Ontario..C!earing of ERPAs 23-29 is discussed in Section III.E of this report.

C-TABLE 2 1991 PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION ESTIMATES BY 90o SECTOR 1991 1991 1991 Permanent Permanent Permanent Resident Resident 1991 Resident Population Population Permanent Population With Autos Without Autos .Number Resident (Excluding (Excluding (Excluding of Sector. ~Po utation A 2 Mile Radius A 210 210 202 8 126 B 635 635 614 21 334 C 444 444 424 20 241 D 210 210 202 8 126 5 Mile Radius E 210 210 202 8 126 F 3 723 3,714 3,611 103 1,973 8 5,003 5,003 4,851 152 2,789 H 210 210 202 8 126 10 Mile Radius I 210 210 202 8 126 J 13,864 13,855 13,382 473 7,436 K 36,738 32,246 29,285 2,961 18,840 L 210 210 202 8 'l 26 360oEPZ M 45,520 41,019 37,375 3,280 23,362

4 r TABLE 3 1991 TRANSIENT POPULATION ESTIMATES BY 90o SECTOR Ser~tr 1 1 Transient Po ulation 2 Mite Radius A 1,558 B 1,618 C 1,558 D 1,558 5 Mile Radius 1,558 3,815 3,935 H 1,558 10 Mile Radius I 1,558 J 8,511 K 14,104 L 1,558 360o EPZ 19,005

TABLE 4

'I991 SPECIAL FACILITIES POPULATION ESTIMATES BY 90o SECTOR Sector 1991 S eciaIFacili Po ulation 2 Mile Radiu A 0 B 0 C 0 D 0 5 Mile Radius 0

9 0

0 10 Mile Radius I 0 J 4,390 K 11,196 L 0 360o EPZ 15,586

+4 (A

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TABLE 5

'1991 PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION ESTIMATES BY SEGMENT RING, MILES 0-2 2-5 0-5 5-10 0-10 Cumulative =

Cumulative Segment Subarea Subarea Subarea Subarea Segment Population Population Population Population Population 0 0 0 NNE 0 0 0 0 0 0 ENE 0 0 0 0 0 63 221 284 1,081 1,365 ESE 31 398 429 2,692 3,121 SE 473 588 1,348 1,936 SSE 99 707 806 1,040 1,846 68 520 588 '1,304 1,892 SSW 83 1,172 1,255 4,022 5,277 SW 66 813 879 24,782 25,661 WSW 28 78 106 3,027 3,133 W 0 0 0 0 WNW 0 0 0 0 NW 0 0 . 0 0 NNW 0 0 0 0 0 Ring Population 553 4,382 " 4,935 39,296 44,231 (Also see Figure 16)

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TABLE 6 199'I PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION ESTIMATES (EXCLUDING INSTITUTIONALPOPULATION)

BY SEGMENT RING, MILES 0-2 2-5 0-5 5-10 0-10 Cumulative Cumulative Segment Subarea Subarea Subarea Subarea Segment Population Population Population Population Population, 0 0 0 NNE 0 0 0 0 NE 0 0 0 0 0 ENE 0 0 0 0 63 221 284 1,081 1,365 ESE 31 398 429 2,692 3,121 SE 115 464 579 1,348 1,927 SSE 99 707 806 1,040 1,846 68 520 588 1,304 1,892 SSW 83 1,172 1,255 4,022 5,277 SW 66 813 879 20,290 21,169 WSW 28 78 106 3,027 3,133 W 0 0 WNW 0 0 0 0 0 NW 0 0 0 0 0

. NNW 0 0 0 0 Ring Population 553 4,373 4,926 34,804 39,730 (Also see Figure 17)

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TABLE 7 1991 PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION ESTIMATES (EXCLUDING INSTITUTIONALPOPULATION)

WITH AUTOS BY SEGMENT RING, MILES 0-2 2-5 0-5 5-10 0-10

.Cumulative Cumulative Segment Subarea Subarea Subarea 'ubarea Segment .

Population Population Population Population Population N

NNE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ENE 0 0 0 0 63 220 283 1057 1340 ESE 31 371 402 2556 2958 SE 115 452 567 1273 1840 SSE 99 699 798 1016 1814 68 505 573 1260 1833 SSW 76 1156 1232 3819 5051 SW 58 798 856 17625 18481 WSW 28 78 106 3027 3 I 33 W- 0 0 0 0 0 WNW NW NNW Ring 538 4279 4817 31,633 36,450 Population (Also see Figure 18)

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TABLE 8 1991 PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION ESTIMATES (EXCLUDING INSTITUTIONALPOPULATION)

. WITHOUT AUTOS BY SEGMENT RING, MILES 0-2 2-5 0-5 5-10 0-10 Cumulative Cumulative Segment Subarea Subarea Subarea Subarea Segment .

Population Population Population Population Population 0 0 NNE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 E 0 1 1 24 25 ESE 0 27 27 136 163 SE 0 12 12 75 87 SSE 0 8 8 24 32 S 0 . 15 15 44 59 SSW 7 16 23 203 226 SW 8 15 23 2665 2688 WSW 0 0 0 0 W 0 0 0 0 WNW 0 0 0 0 0 NW 0 0 0 0 NNW 0 . 0 . 0 0 0 Ring Population 15 94 109 '171 3280 (Also see Figure 19)

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TABLE 9 1991 TRANSIENT POPULATION ESTIMATES BY SEGMENT RING, MILES 0-2 2-5 0-5 5-10 0-10 Cumulative Cumulative Segment Subarea Subarea Subarea Subarea Segment Population Population Population Population Population 0 0 0 0 0 NNE 0 0 0 0 0 NE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 254 12 266 3,092 3,358 ESE 254 227 '81 978 l,459 SE 254 286 540 229 769 SSE 255 44 299 109 408 255 806 1,061 1,024 2,085 SSW 143 330 473 986 1,459 SW 143 368 511 8,956 9,467 WSW 0 0 0 0 0 W

WNW 0 0 0 0 NW 0 0 0 0 0 NNW 0 0 0 0 0 Ring Population 1,558 2,073 ',631 15,374 19,005 (Also see Figure 20)

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TABLE 10 1991 SPECIAL FACILITIES POPULATION ESTIMATES BY SEGMENT RING, MILES 0-2 2-5 0-5 5-10 0-10 Cumulative Cumulative Segment Subarea Subarea Subarea Subarea Segment Population Population . Population Population Population 0 0 0 0 0 NNE 0 0 0 0 0 NE '0 0 0 0 ENE '

0 0 0 360 360 ESE 0 0 0 2,081 2,081 SE 0 9 9 1,940 1,949 SSE 0 0 0 0 0 S 0 0 0 0 '

SSW 0 0 576 576 SW 0 0 0 10,620 10,620 WSW 0 0 0

~

W 0 0 0 0 0 WNW 0 0 0 0 0 NW 0 0 0 NNW 0 0 0 0 0 Ring Population 0 I5,577 15,586 (Also see Figure 21)

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50-Mile Radius Nine Mile Point II -29 Nuclear. Povrer Stations

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50-Mile Radi Nine Mile Poinl lguclear Power SfationE

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Granby I I km I Sl ~ rltna I

I Mirror Ring Ring Total Cumulative r

I I Miles Populalion Mites Population I I I I 0-2 553 0-2 553 I I I 2-5 4382 0-5 4935 I

I 5" IO 39r 296 0-IO 44)23 I

---

lownUner Seamenl unco Fig. l6- l99I Permanent Resident Population J.A. FilzPatrick/

Estimates, by Segment Nine Mlle Polnl Nuclear Power Sfationr .

1 f"

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NNE la Mlleo sQ NW 0 l / CG

'0'NW S Mlles / r

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W r E 284

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~ ~~+'28 15 3l R I I

on

"/' 83 68199 78 P" W o u~ 39 I06 429 464 +Pre owdoo 3I3'3

~ 879 Sorlbo I

w H ~n 579 g s 2692 '3I2I r ro'I72

/vo 707 WSW $ e ~ I L ESE 520

,<~ l255 58 ~ I I

806 tg

,i 21, I69

/I'0,290

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r-Q 5277 I846 rort o5 l892 SSE

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Sl ~ rllna Ring Ring Total Cumulative Miles Population Miles Pop ulalion L 0-2 553 0-2 553 I

I 2-5 4373 0" 5 4926 I 5-IO 34,804 0-IO 39,730 I

canoe ~

end

- 1~ unco Segment Unco NY Fig. 17 I99! 'Permanent Resident Population S.A. FitzPatrick/

Estimates (excluding Institutional Nine Mile Point Po ulation,b Se ment Nuclear Power Sfations

fl i

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0 NNE QQ to I" jNorrrr i(f~

0 ZlNW 0

//

I sorrily Crooo WNW 5 Mlles /

CG, / /, rrro 5 t

a 1JLIIeo 04 to r

/

ONAI I I W 0

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g ao 45 w Ir ven 3I33 3027 r 2958 ayweao I< 5 I'I 56 5 c r I b a- 567 Z WSW o69 SE i23 505 798 573

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Qowoaa 3819 ..

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818 R

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V

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Ore nby IIW I

Stolllna (

I rrroon I Ho Ring Ring Total Gulnuiative I

5 I hQes Population Miles Population I

I 0-2 5.38 0:2 538 2-5 4279 0-5 48 I,7 5- IO 3I,633 0-IO 36,450 Canada

---Town Unco Seament Unco Fig. 48 I99l Permanent Resident Popiilation S.A. FifzPafrlck/

Estimates (excluding institutional Nine Mlle. Point Population) with Autos, by Se ment Nuclear Po~er Sfafions

4~g 7'i rI ss e'

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0 Cg CG NNE ip Horlh 0

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TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES The evacuation travel times described in this report are a function of the evacuating population size, the travel distance, roadway capacities, weather conditions, available emergency manpower, and,the number of vehicles used during an evacuation.

Section II of this report discussed the various evacuation populations.Section III discusses the other aforementioned factors affecting evacuation travel time.

The transportation facilities available to complete an evacuation of the EPZ consist of roadways, privately-owned vehicles, buses and vans, emergency vehicles (e.g., ambulances), boats, and aircraft. The following is a discussion of the role of these transportation facilities in a JAF/NMP area evacuation and their respective functions in the estimates of the evacuation travel times.

A. Evacuation Roadwa Network Primary evacuation routes were identified for all portions of the EPZ. Each ERPA within the EPZ was disaggregated into one or more traffic zones along recognizable geographic and/or political boundaries. Each traffic zone, which represents a population cluster in,a.specific geographic area that loads onto a given roadway, was then assigned a primary evacuation route for each mode of travel emanating from that zone. Traffic zone boundaries were developed to minimize the amount of cross traffic required to access a zone's associated primary evacuation route. The evacuation routes and traffic zones are included in the Oswego County REPP and are described in Appendix D of this report.

Evacuation routes for a given traffic zone were chosen to move traffic generally in a radial direction away from the JAF/NMP site in accordance with NUREG-0654 criteria.

Care was taken to select routes likely to be both familiar to and regularly used by drivers in the traffic.zone. In addition, the NYSDOT, Oswego County DPW, and Oswego City DPW were contacted to identify programmed roadway improvements scheduled over the next five years.'hile a majority of existing roadway deficiencies are not located on the evacuation roadway network, the following improvements are scheduled for construction on the evacuation roadway network:

o Catfish Creek Bridge on Route 1 will be reconstructed during 1995 and I996 o I-81 will be resurfaced in 1992 between Central Square and Parish. While this section is not located within the 10-mile EPZ, it helps facilitate traffic to the State Fairgrounds reception center in Syracuse.

Limited access facilities such as I-81 are not in the EPZ, and hence were not included as primary evacuation routes. Ultimately, I-81, as well as other major routes which lead south of the EPZ such as NY Rte 481, Rte 48, and Rte 34, will facilitate a large amount of evacuation traffic as they connect Oswego County with the greater Syracuse area and the State Fairgrounds.

In developing the evacuation routes, it was assumed that traffic would operate in a normal two-way pattern, with the exception of any one-way streets. This operational strategy would not only permit emergency vehicles and buses to enter the evacuating area, but would also minimize the possibility of a total blockage of a route because of an incident such as an automobile accident. If an accident did occur, traffic could be diverted around that point in the opposing travel lanes. Backup evacuation routes were

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also determined for portions of the primary evacuation network likely to become extremely congested and are included in the Oswego County REPP. A more detailed discussion of these bottleneck locations appears in Section IV.J.

. The selected primary evacuation routes, as well as many others, were traveled to assess their adequacy for evacuation purposes. The data gathered for each route

. during the field reconnaissance conducted on October 27 and 28, 1991 was used to determine the evacuation capacity of each roadway and included the number of lanes, lane width, shoulder width, location and the timing of traffic signals (if applicable), and the posted speed limit. Roadway capacities were estimated based upon current traffic engineering practices outlined in the 1985 edition of the Highway Capacity Manual. The Oswego County Department of Public Works, the City of Oswego Department of Public Works, and the New York State Department of Transportation were contacted to verify those highways in the EPZ that were modified (e.g., widened, new facilities, etc.) since the last evacuation time study was prepared in May 1984. These were also field-verified during October, 1991.

I This roadway inventory data was used to disaggregate the evacuation network into over 160 individual links within the EPZ. A link represents a roadway segment where the physical and.operating characteristics are similar, or a portion of a route between other intersecting primary evacuation routes. Figure 22 shows the links within the 10-mile EPZ for the JAF/NMP evacuation roadway network. The primary direction of travel during an evacuation is indicated"by directional arrows'and the location of traffic control points are also identified on the map. The map does not show all the local streets necessary to access the evacuation routes, nor does it show the evacuation links between the EPZ and the State Fairgrounds in Syracuse. I-81, Rte 48, Rte 34, and I-690 are the primary evacuation routes between the EPZ and the State Fairgrounds located in Syracuse. Approximately 75 additional links were field inventoried and have been added to the analysis for the purpose of estimating evacuation travel times of schools in the EPZ to the State Fairgrounds. This is consistent with FEMA guidance memorandum EV-2, "Protective Actions for School Children".

Each link in the EPZ is numbered for reference, and corresponds to the link characteristic data shown in Appendix E. The links between the EPZ and the State Fairgrounds are also. tabulated in Appendix E. The information shown includes, for each link, the evacuation route name, the number of lanes in'the outbound direction, the free flow travel speed, the link length, the various factors which affect capacity, and the upper and lower bound evacuation capacities (service traffic volumes) under normal, inclement, and adverse weather conditions, respectively. The procedures used to calculate the evacuation capacities are discussed below.

1. Evacuation Ca aci Anal sis An important variable in the determination of evacuation travel times is- the capacity of roadways in the network to accommodate evacuating vehicles. NUREG-0654 stipulates that normal and adverse weather conditions be addressed in terms of their effects on travel times and capacity. For this reason, it was necessary to develop a procedure to estimate "evacuation capacities'hich would represent the number of vehicles serviced per unit of time by each segment of the network under flow conditions likely to occur during an evacuation for both normal and adverse weather conditions.

Because of the large and sudden demand placed on a roadway system during an evacuation, it was. assumed that traffic would be congested, speeds would be low, flow

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would be unstable, and there would be stoppages of momentary duration. It was assumed that these operating conditions would prevail for the duration of the evacuation, with the exception of the very beginning and end of the evacuation phase, when volumes are anticipated to be somewhat lower. The traffic flow conditions indicated above correspond to a roadway segments capacity defined as Level of Service E as described in the Hi hwa Ca aci Manual*. Level of Service is a qualitative measure of the effect of a number of factors on traffic flow including speed, travel time, traffic interruptions, freedom to maneuver, safety, driving comfort and convenience.

For Level of Service E flow conditions, standard procedures (as outlined in the Hi hwa Ca aci Manu I) were followed to calculate the service volume of a roadway.

The service volume at Level of Service E, which is called "evacuation capacity" in the context of this report, was calculated for each link in the network to represent the upper-bound capability of the roadways to accommodate traffic under normal weather conditions.

At the time of an incident at the JAF/NMP site, events may occur even under fair weather which would reduce the capability of roadways to accommodate evacuating traffic. For example, some traffic control officers designated to monitor traffic checkpoints may be unable to fulfill their assignments. Traffic throughput, therefore, would not be maximized at these locations. In addition, a light snow or rain which results in a moist road surface may have a slight impact on roadway capacity. To represent these conditions, service volumes were calculated at Level of Service D. In general, this calculation accounts for a 10 to 20 percent reduction in evacuation capacity, depending on the roadway type, for multilane, and two-lane facilities, respectively. Therefore, evacuation travel times were calculated as a range of values under normal weather conditions, with lower-bound travel times determined using Level of Service E capacities and upper-bound travel times calculated using service volumes consistent with Level of Service D operations.

Under adverse weather conditions, such as snow, fog, severe thunder storms which result in heavy rains, localized flooding, or ice, the ability of roadways to carry traffic is further reduced. Two factors account for this reduction a decreased quality and amount of physical space on the roadway surface (e.g., snow on shoulders) and a

, more cautious. attitude on the part of the driver (resulting in increased headways). As discussed with the County and State Highway officials, adverse weather conditions are no longer considered to be just a heavy snowstorm in the Oswego area (when evacuation may not be the preferred response option), but would include an ice storm which immobilizes the area until roadway crews can salt, sand, and clear the roadways.

Level of Service D service volumes were further reduced by 20 percent to account for these factors to estimate adverse weather evacuation capacities.

During times of heavy snowfall, the City of Oswego Department of Public Works estimates that it would take up to three hours to clear all of the City streets. However, snow emergency routes located within Oswego County require approximately 30 minutes to clear once crews are mobilized for duty. Beyond the EPZ, it is estimated that two hours are required to clear NY 481 and I-81 to Syracuse.

During an emergency, the Oswego County Department of Public Works has stated that it would assist in clearing State roads within the EPZ. Priority planning for snow removal on bus routes will be coordinated by the Oswego County Emergency Management Office.

• Highway Research Board, Special Report 209; 1985

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As a first step in the determination of capacity, base evacuation capacities/service volumes were calculated for each link in the network at the levels of service mentioned above. The base evacuation capacities were then modified by factors which take into account the impact on traffic operations of existing roadway widths and shoulder areas.

All applicable modification factors were abstracted from the Hi hwa Ca aci Manual.

The roads and highways used for evacuation were categorized into four basic groupings for purposes of capacity computations:

Freeways, Multi-lane highways, Two-lane, two-way roadways, and Roadways controlled by traffic signals.

Appendix F details the specific methodology used to calculate evacuation

'apacities for these roadway types.

B. Privatel -Owned Vehicle

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It was assumed, for the purpose of computing evacuation travel time estimates that families owning automobiles would evacuate as a unit from their homes in one car.

However, a percentage of multi-car families might utilize their additional vehicles in an evacuation. The impact of these'additional automobiles would be to increase the evacuation travel time estimates roughly proportionally to the percent increase in the number of cars used to evacuate along the critical evacuation routes. It is noted that multi-car families were assumed to use more than one vehicle when the evacuation trips originated from several locations (e.g., a mother departing from home and a husband departing from work) The number of families with zero, one, or several cars was

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determined from the 1990 Census and adjusted to the year 1991 as described earlier in Section II for each traffic zone in the EPZ.

C. Buses and Vans Buses and vans will be used to evacuate the ambulatory population who will not have their own means of transportation available at the time of an incident. This ambulatory population includes schoolchildren, residents of special facilities, transients without autos, and the general public without autos. The available vehicles in the JAF/NMP area to evacuate these people consist of public, private, and school-district-owned buses and vans. The priorities associated with the deployment of buses and vans depend on whether school is in session at the time of an evacuation. The criteria used to determine bus assignments are fully discussed in Section IV.F. The following is a discussion of the general role of these vehicles in the Oswego County REPP and travel time estimate analysis.

In all, 76 emergency bus routes have been established within the EPZ, not including assignments at specific facilities such as schools, nursing homes, hospitals or day camps. Based on the number of transit-dependent people in each traffic zone (as described earlier in Section II.B), the required number of buses for each traffic zone was determined. The public, private, and school district bus operators in the area were contacted by the Oswego County Emergency Management Office to determine the number of vehicles each company could provide. For the purpose of this study, the bus companies were then assigned service areas based on location and the number and type of available vehicles. Where possible, service areas were defined to be contiguous

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II with traffic zone and ERPA boundaries to clearly identify responsibilities during a staged or partial evacuation. The following list tabulates the bus companies identified by the Oswego County Emergency Management Office and the current vehicle inventory of each company:

o City School District of Oswego (61 buses and 2 vans with a total passenger capacity of 3,537) o Phoenix Central School District (36 buses with a total passenger capacity of 2,135) o Central Square Central School District (44 buses and 11 vans with a total passenger capacity of 2,024) o A 8 E Medical (4 buses and 3 vans with a total passenger capacity of 187) o Oswego County Opportunities (12 buses and 11 vans with a total passenger capacity of 419) o Centro of Syracuse, Inc. (187 buses and 9 vans with a total passenger capacity of 8257. Two trolleys with a passenger capacity of 42 are assumed not available for use during an evacuation) o Mexico Academy and Central Schools (44 buses and 2 vans - with a total passenger capacity of 2,236) o Oswego County BOCES (31 buses with a total passenger capacity of 577).

The estimated total ambulatory population without autos who require evacuation by bus or van includes school children, permanent resident population who are not considered to be part of a.rideshare 'initiative, the university and population, transient population, and special facility residents of healthcare, nursing'ome'nstitutional day care, and correctional facilities is listed below.

o School Children = 10,166 (Students of elementary, middle, and high schools located within the EPZ) o Permanent Resident Population without Autos = 1,640 o Institutional Population = 1,337 o Transient Population = 0 o Special Facilities Population = 543 The total passenger demand of these components totals 13,868. With 457 available buses and vans which can transport 19,372 passengers, sufficient resources exist to'evacuate those who require transportation in the EPZ. The vehicular inventories and their respective capacities, and the ambulatory population estimates without autos who require evacuation by bus listed above reflect information available at the time this report was compiled. Current information is available in the latest Oswego REPP. An estimate of the non-ambulatory population, those people who are bed ridden and require evacuation by an ambulance and those persons who are in wheel chairs and require evacuation via a wheel chair equipped vehicle, is discussed in Section D.

D., Emer enc Vehicles Emergency vehicles such as ambulances and wheelchair-equipped buses and vans would be used to evacuate non-ambulatory residents from special facilities, and members of the general population requiring and requesting such transport. Each special facility was contacted by the Oswego County Emergency Management Office to identify the number of residents requiring wheelchair or stretcher transportation. In addition, the Oswego County Emergency Management Office has compiled a list of non-institutionalized mobility impaired people that was considered in the assignment of emergency vehicles and assessment of evacuation times.

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Various ambulance corporations and fire departments in the County were also contacted to ascertain the availability of emergency vehicles. Eleven (11) ambulances are available in Oswego County from four providers. Thus, the total number of stretcher patients that could be carried at any one time is 22; however, the total demand for ambulance assisted evacuation passengers from hospitals and.nursing homes (those who require stretchers when they are transported ) located in the EPZ is 67. Bus companies were also inventoried to determine the wheelchair capacity of their fleets. A total of 422 wheelchair passengers can be transported on the available bus and van resources which exceeds the evacuation demand of 347 wheelchair passengers; thus, a one-wave evacuation of wheelchair passengers can be obtained.

Table 11 presents total vehicle estimates for the EPZ by Sector. Table 12 and Figure 23 contain the same data presented by Segment and Subarea. It should be noted that these total vehicle estimates include all vehicles belonging to multi-car, families.

E. Boats Water traffic within the EPZ on Lake Ontario (ERPAs 26-29) and on the (ERPAs 23-.25) would be cleared by the local law enforcement agencies as Oswego'iver specified in the Oswego County REPP. The United States Coast Guard would also be called upon at the time of an incident to assist in an evacuation. The Coast Guard would also be responsible for blocking entry into the 10-mile EPZ from Lake Ontario and th'"

Saint Lawrence Seaway.

Evacuation of water traffic depends on the type of craft, its fuel supply, mode of power, how long its been out of port, and weather conditions. For example, it has been estimated that it would take boats on Lake Ontario in the vicinity of the power plants as long as 1-1/2 hours to travel to their home ports in the Mexico area. Again, weather will:

dictate how long it would take to evacuate the lake. It has been estimated that sailboats would require up to 4-hours to evacuate the EPZ.

The Coast Guard estimates that 75% - 80% of the fishing boats on Lake Ontario are equipped with radios. The Coast Guard anticipates that notification would be spread from one location to the. next if an evacuation were ordered. Once all boats have been notified of an evacuation, the boats on Lake Ontario would be directed to safe ports located outside of the 10-mile EPZ. Boats located in the harbor area and along the Oswego River are to dock at the nearest port, or their home ports where the passengers would then be evacuated by auto or bus. This activity is particularly significant during Harborfest and the Fishing Derby.

Weather conditions, particularly on Lake Ontario, will be the key factor in determining how long it will take to evacuate water traffic in the EPZ. For example, the Oswego County Sheriffs Marine Patrol estimates that 2-3 hours would be required to confirm evacuation of all boats within the EPZ when seas are less than 2-feet on Lake Ontario. During times of adverse weather, or when the seas are greater than 2-feet on the Lake, the Marine Patrol and Coast Guard estimate the confirmation of an evacuation could take as long as 6-8 hours.

F. ~Air lanes There are no commercial airports within the JAF/NMP EPZ. South of the EPZ, there is a county airport in Volney.

n' TABLE 1'I 1991 TOTAL VEHICLE ESTIMATES BY 90o SECTOR Sector 1991 Total Vehicles 2 Mile Radius A 126 B 334 C - 241 D 126 5 Mile Radius E 126 F 1,973 G 2,789 H, 126 10 Mile Radius I 126 J 7,436 K 18,840 L 126 360o EPZ 23,364

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TABLE 12 1991 TOTAL VEHICLE ESTIMATES BY SEGMENT RING, MILES 0-2 2-5 0-5 5-10 0-10 Cumulative Cumulative Segment Subarea Subarea Subarea Subarea Segment Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles Vehicles 0 0 0 0 NNE 0 0 0 0 NE 0 0 0 0 0 ENE 24 3 27 396 423 ESE 7 322 329 2160 2489 SE 8, 225 233 833 1066 SSE 7 266 273 558 831 S 8 358 366 897 1263 SSW 6l 411 472 2737 3209 SW 61 322 383 13,698 14,081 WSW 0 0 0 W 0 0 0 WNW 0 0 0 0 0 NW 0 0 0 0 NNW 0 0 0 0 Ring Vehicles 176 1907 2083 21,279 23,362 (Also see Figure 23)

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IV. ANALYSIS OF EVACUATIONTRAVEL TIMES A. Scenarios Evacuation travel time estimates are prepared to serve as a guide for local emergency coordinators in refining their emergency response plans, and as an aid to local officials in selecting protective actions during an emergency. Evacuation travel time estimates were prepared by ERPA for eight distinct time-based scenarios and two distinct weather conditions for inclusion in the Oswego County REPP. These estimates assumed a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The eight scenarios included in the emergency preparedness plan are listed below in order of increasing evacuation travel time as explained in Section V.:

Nighttime Weekend/Holiday winter, daytime Weekend/Holiday summer, daytime Evening Classic Weekend Weekday, school not in session Weekday, school in session Harb orfest These time-based scenarios were chosen and analyzed for the emergency preparedness plan because they cover all significantly different patterns of population distribution and transportation availability. Hence, the decision maker is provided with a tool for deciding the travel time required to simultaneously evacuate the entire EPZ under two different weather conditions and at different times of the day. These evacuation travel times are shown by ERPA in Appendix G.

The travel time estimates presented in this section of the report are for the specific 90 Sectors required in NUREG-0654, as well as for the entire EPZ (Sector M). A detailed description of the above scenarios is described below:

Ni httime Scenario - The baseline scenario is nighttime, when most people in the general population are in their residences, institutions have minimal staff on duty, and relatively few businesses are functioning. This scenario is considered to be representative of the resident population distribution. Nighttime differences among days of the week and seasons are not regarded as large enough to warrant a separate designation.

Weekend da s and holida s - Weekend days and holidays are similar. to each other, different from the patterns so far discussed, and different for winter and summer.

During these times families tend to be together, and recreational activities predominate.

Thus winter and summer weekend days and holidays are designated as two separate scenarios. Seasonal patterns for spring and fall do not need to be considered separately, but can be subsumed under winter or summer. The main differences are expected to be in terms of park and camp attendance and facility usage (peaks in summer) and other seasonal activities.

EvenincLs - This time of day is substantially different for institutions, especially medical institutions, because of staffing levels. This scenario is only somewhat different from nights for the general population because of a tendency to be away from home (shopping, entertainment, etc.). As with nights, weekday-weekend and seasonal

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differences for the evening scenario are not expected to be large for either the general population or institutions.

Classic Weekend - Classic Weekend is an annual event which is held at the Oswego Speedway over the Labor Day weekend. This scenario is similar to that of a summer weekend when the local campground and park attendance is near its peak, The peak time period of activity for the event occurs during Sunday afternoon, the final day of racing.

Weekda School-not-in-Session Scenario - The Weekday School-not-in-Session Scenario is identical to the Weekday School-in-Session Scenario except that the schools are closed. For evacuation purposes, this scenario would occur during the summer months when the children could be at many of the areawide beaches, campgrounds, or parks. This scenario would result in additional vehicles evacuating a dispersed population in the EPZ and hence, the longest potential evacuation times under the Weekday School-not-in-Session Scenario.

Weekda School-in-Session Scenario - Weekdays are characterized by "normal" activity patterns. Most households have at least one member at work. Institutions are usually at their. maximum staffing levels, businesses are usually open and active, and children are in school. This scenario, as opposed to a Weekday School-not-in Session Scenario, signiTicantly affects bus transportation -needs and usage as well as Reception/Congregate Care Center activities because of the greater potential need to reunite families who have been evacuated by different means and from different locations.

Harborfest - Harborfest is held annually over a four day period in July. The event is typically held between Thursday and Sunday with a majority of its events centered around Oswego Harbor. The peak activity period during the Harborfest festivities occurs during Saturday night when fireworks are displayed. This event draws a large number of attendees from outside the EPZ. In addition, it also draws a number of boats to the Harbor area.

B. Weather Conditions NUREG-0654 stipulates that two weather conditions, normal and adverse, be considered in the evacuation travel time analysis. Therefore, both the nighttime (minimum evacuation travel time estimate) and weekday school-in-session (maximum evacuation travel time estimate, excluding Harborfest) scenarios were analyzed assuming the following weather conditions:

o For normal weather, clear sky and dry roadway pavement; o For adverse weather, reduced visibility during the summertime (e.g., due to fog, severe thunderstorms resulting in heavy rain or localized flooding) and during the wintertime, a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to plowed snow or ice).

The effects of these weather conditions on the roadway capacities, and hence the evacuation travel time estimates, have been discussed earlier in Section III.A.1.

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C. ~T' For each traffic zone included in a given 90 Sector, the number of evacuation trips generated by that zone was estimated by trip type. The number of trips varied significantly by scenario; For-example, for the weekday school-in-session scenario, large numbers of evacuation trips were attributable to transient employees working in the EPZ. However, for the nighttime scenario, this same trip type (employees) was much less significant because most businesses would be closed.

The number of trips from a given traffic zone was based on population and vehicle occupancy data. For example, if a zone has a nursing home with 120 ambulatory and 15

, wheelchair-bound residents, and if the facility owns one 10-passenger wheelchair van, then five vehicle trips would be generated by the nursing home (three buses provided by, a bus company with 40 passengers each, one facility-owned van, and one other 5-passenger, wheelchair van provided by a bus company).

Vehicle trips generated by each zone were then converted to passenger car equivalents (PCEs) for traffic assignment purposes. Buses were weighted as the equivalent of two cars, since their primary impact would be one of increased roadway

. space during a slow, congested evacuation condition.

D. Traffic Assi nments The assignment of the evacuation vehicles generated by each traffic zone over designated evacuation routes was performed by a computer model developed specifically for evacuation planning studies. The model loads the network and computes the travel and delay times for all zones being analyzed in any given Sector.

A static traffic assignment procedure which assumes instantaneous loading of the evacuation network and concurrent vehicular demand on all roadway segments is incorporated in the computer model. This procedure is not an exact simulation of vehicle movement during an evacuation or any other travel situation; however, the static.,

traffic assignment results were compared to those obtained from a dynamic traffic.

simulation model for a sample number of routes in the Indian Point EPZ (located in parts of Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and Putnam Counties in the State of New York), and were found to be very similar. A detailed description of the static traffic assignment algorithm, and the results of the comparison between static and dynamic assignment is presented in Appendix I.

E. Notification Time The JAF/NMP EPZ is served by a siren notification system that meets the acceptable design objectives specified in Appendix 3 of NUREG-0654.- Tone alert radios are provided to private residences within the EPZ located in areas out of the siren range.

In addition, all schools, special facilities, and major industries in the EPZ have with tone alert radios. The Oswego County REPP contains backup notification been'rovided procedures such as route alerting in the event of a siren/tone alert system malfunction.

F. Com onents of the Evacuation Travel Time The estimates of evacuation travel time include the following components:

Public Pre aration Time - Twenty minutes are assumed to be required for the

, public to prepare for evacuation after official notification to leave their homes.

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~T'TI . Th.<< I Id f hfl dp Ipf the time to drive via local residential streets and collector roads in a traffic zone to the first link of the predesignated primary evacuation route. For bus route's, terminal time is comprised of both traveling time and.loading time at pickup points, for transit dependant people.

Roadwa Travel Time - The roadway travel time is the amount of time required for all vehicles to traverse the entire length of their evacuation route to the edge of the 10 mile EPZ. This time depends on both normal operating speeds on the road and on delays due to congestion (where the vehicle volumes approach or exceed the capacity of the roadway at a particular location). Hence, the roadway travel time is the amount of time. beginning when the first vehicle enters the evacuation route, assuming normal operating speeds, until the last vehicle leaves the sector, taking into account reduced speeds attributable to congestion.

PadTipT -P hll ql dt t Idpl tip t df th evacuating area, round trip time represents the time to travel beyond the EPZ to a predesignated host facility or reception center, return to the evacuating area for a second assignment, leave the EPZ, and load and unload passengers at terminal points.

This round trip time is particularly important for the school-in-session scenario because schoolchildren would be evacuated first by buses to'the New York State Fairgrounds in Syracuse. Enough buses exist to evacuate all transit dependent people out of the during all of the evacuation scenarios; however, a sufficient number of EPZ;in'ne-wave ambulances do not exist to evacuate non-ambulatory residents in one-wave . Non-ambulatory residents at several nursing homes in the City of Oswego as well as people who require evacuation by ambulance would be required to wait for wheelchair-equipped vehicles and ambulances to complete initial assignments during an evacuation.

lt should be noted that the evacuation travel time estimates do not include preparation time required to mobilize bus and ambulance personnel and equipment, traffic control personnel, and the Coast Guard. These activities generally take place; within one to two hours before an order to evacuate is given.

When school is in session, there are enough buses available to evacuate all transit-dependent ambulatory individuals (i.e., schoolchildren, resident population and transients without automobiles, and special facility residents) in one trip. This determination is based on a worst-case assumption of a simultaneous full-EPZ evacuation when schools are open. The Oswego County REPP contains procedures intended to minimize the likelihood of such an occurrence, such as go-home plans and sheltering options. In the event an evacuation is considered during the normal school dismissal time, the time frame required for students to return home is on average 3 ho'urs; However",for the purpose of this study, the following steps were assumed in the calculation of evacuation travel time estimates (including round-trip time) for a school-in-.

session scenano:

School districts use their full-sized buses to evacuate schools in their districts as a first priority.

2. All elementary schools, middle schools, private schools, nursery schools, and day care centers are evacuated with district-owned and contracted vehicles.

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A. Central Square Central School District buses assist in evacuating schools within the City School District of Oswego because enough district-owned vehicles are not available.

. B. Phoenix Central, School District buses assist in evacuating schools within the Mexico Academy and Central Schools because enough district-owned vehicles are not available.

C. BOCES self-evacuates with its own vehicles with assistance from Phoenix Central School District buses.

3. School district-owned vans are used to run general population bus routes in ERPAs near JAF/NMP.

4. Centro of Oswego and Oswego County Opportunity vehicles are used to run general population bus routes.

5. A 8 E medical vehicles assist in the evacuation of hospitals.

6., Centro of in Oswego.

Syracuse vehicles are used to help evacuate the SUNY Campus

7. The evacuation travel times assume that people who require the use of a" walker are transported from the nursing home or hospital to the evacuation buses with the use of a wheelchair and placed in an available seat.

A total of 4,000 students would need to be evacuated from the dormitories located on the SUNY Campus. These students would be evacuated on buses supplied by Centro of Syracuse as well as in registered on-campus vehicles of students who reside in the dormitories.

According to the Oswego REPP, eighteen buses are available to the SUNY)

Campus in the event of an emergency. Assuming the buses can accommodate 66 passengers per bus, the buses would be able to evacuate 1,188 students from the campus dormitories.

There are also 1,219 registered student vehicles on the SUNY campus which belong to students residing in dormitories. According to campus security, these vehicles remain on campus virtually all of the time. Assuming that each vehicle would evacuate three passengers, the student registered vehicles could evacuate 3,657 students. This assumption is valid as the students who reside in the high density campus dormitories, live with roommates and tend to act as a family unit. The combined capacity of the supplied buses an'd student vehicles is 4,845 passengers which exceeds the=-student population of 4,000. Moreover the remaining student population, faculty and staff commute to the Campus either by vehicle or walking. These people wou(d therefore evacuate using their own vehicle or rideshare. Those that walk to the Campys are included in the general population for the City of Oswego thus, they are included either in the general population with auto or transit dependent populations.

G. Evacuation Travel Time Estimates The results of the evacuation travel time analysis described in this report are presented by Sector in Tables 13, 14, 15, and 16 for the nighttime normal weather, nighttime adverse weather, school-in-session normal weather, and school-in-session IV-5

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k adverse weather scenarios, respectively. The travel time estimates are presented for the following population subgroups (as defined earlier):

o Permanent resident population with automobiles;

. o Permanent resident population without automobiles; o Special facilities population; and o Transient population.

The evacuation travel time estimates calculated for the JAF/NMP EPZ are in accordance with the implementation procedures and other operational strategies indicated in the Oswego County REPP. The implementation procedures include provisions such as predesignated evacuation routes for all ERPAs, prioritized traffic control locations, and bus routes with pickup points for the public.

As mentioned earlier, travel times were calculated as a range under normal weather conditions. When deciding which end of the range to use to estimate evacuation travel time, a decision maker would consider factors including the degree of mobilization, the degree of public cooperation, the extent of capacity restrictions on key highway links, weather, and roadway conditions.

Lower-bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long-term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to>

incidents such as accidents, vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction do not occur; (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, all buses stationed to begin their initial runs, etc.) is attained; (c) An informed and cooperative public follows directions as instructed. (In other words,. the public has been sufficiently educated as to their.

responsibility in an evacuation, and has been given adequate notice of the possibility they may have to evacuate.)

Upper-bound evacuation travel times (longer times) for normal weather conditions are representative of a situation where:

(a) Capacity restrictions resulting from light rain or snow showers adversely affect traffic flow, but not to the point where a breakdown in traffic flow would result; (b) A low state of operational,readiness'results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs. (In other words, the public is believed to be unsure as to what is expected of them.)

The evacuation travel times represent the time for the last vehicle in a Sector to clear the Sector boundary.

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H. ~li N Ti Confirmation of evacuation will be provided, to the extent possible, by law enforcement and other assigned emergency workers concurrent with their patrolling of the,EPZ:during evacuation. The. City of. Oswego estimates it. will take. about 2- hours to confirm evacuation using police patrol cars and visual inspection. As discussed earlier in Section III.E., confirmation time can take from 2-3 hours during periods of calm weather and up to 6-8 hours during periods of inclement weather.

I.. Distribution of the Evacuated Po ulation b Time The time required to evacuate the last individual from a Sector is an important piece of information for an emergency planner and decision maker. Obviously, everyone else will already have been evacuated when the last person leaves; thus,.it is also important to obtain an estimate of the percent of the population evacuated as a function of time.

An output of the model used to estimate travel times is a prediction of the temporal distnbution of the population as they leave the evacuating area. To produce this output, an. approximation was made of the total population evacuated by Sector for each scenario by applying average vehicle occupancy rates to the number of vehicle trips generated by each traffic zone within the Sector. When a traffic zone had evacuated entirely at a given point in time, the estimated population for that zone was added to the Sector population already evacuated. The resulting total was then divided by the total Sector population to determine the percent of the total population evacuated as a function of time.

Typical population distribution curves for the entire 10-mile EPZ (Sector M) are presented in Figures 24 through 31 for the eight evacuation scenarios which were simulated under normal and adverse weather conditions. Inspection of these curves indicates that significant portions of the total population would be evacuated well before the last person leaves the EPZ.

J. Critical Locations The Oswego County REPP calls for the stationing of traffic control personnel at key locations throughout the evacuation network. The public transportation agencies located within the EPZ estimate that it takes approximately 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> to mobilize these check point personnel. The REPP also identifies backup evacuation routes for roadway segments. likely to become congested. One of the factors which determined where to place the personnel and where to specify backup routes was based on an output from the computer assignment model that identified critical bottleneck links along each route in the network'." These critical links represent the locations of potential maximum delays for evacuees traversing that route. Figures 32 and 33 indicate the critical links for the nighttime and school-in-session scenarios, respectively. Both figures are a composite representation of the critical links identified for an evacuation of all 13 sectors described earlier in this report. 1, IV-7

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TABLE 13 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY SECTOR NIGHTTIMESCENARIO NORMALWEATHER Resident Po ul tlon Transients

~With Auto Without Autos Sector Quadrant From - To From - To ~From - T From - To 2-Mile Radius A NE 0:40- 0:40 0:40 0:50 0:40- 0:40 B SE 0:40- 0:40 0:40-0:50 0:40- 0:40 C SW 0:40- 0:40 0:40 0:50 0:40- 0:40 D NW 0:40- 0:40 0:40 0:50 0:40- 0:40

~5-Mit R dios E NE 0:50- 0:50 0:50 1:00 0:50- 0:50 F SE 0:50- 0:50 1:00-1:00 0:50 - 0:50 0:50- 0:50 8 SW, 0:50- 1:50 1:00-1:50 0:50- 1:50 H NW 0:50- 0:50 0:50 1:00 0:50- 0:50 10-Mile Radius I NE 1:00- 1:00 1:00 1:10 1:00- 1:00 J SE 1:10- 2:20 1:20-2:30 1:10 - 1:10 1:00- 2:10 K SW 3:20- 5:40 3:30-6:00 11:00 - 12:10 3:20- 5:40 L NW 1:00- 1.'00 1:00 1:10 1:00- 1:00 360o EPZ M ALL 3:20- 5:40 3:30-6:00 11:30 - 12:40 3:20- 5:40 Notes:

(1) The evacuation-travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long. term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to incidents such as accidents,vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, all buses stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; (c) An informed and cooperative public follow directions as instructed.

Upper bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation where:

(a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffic flow, but not to the point whore a breakdown in traffic flow would result; (b) A low state of operational readiness results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Normal weather conditions are considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement for the above scenario.

(4) The population subgroups fndicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries); rr (c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(6) Gaps In this Table fndlcates that there is no special facility or transfent population in the given Sector.

(6) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

Special,facility evacuatfon travel times Include the time for the multi.wave trips to evacuate tho non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

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TABLE 14 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY SECTOR NIGHTTIME SCENARIO ADVERSE WEATHER

"*'"'*"'ransients Resident Po uiation 2-Mile Radius A NE 0:40 0:50 0:40 8 SE 040 0:50 0:40 C SW 0:40 0:50 0:40 D NW 0:40 0:50 0:40

~5-Mile Radt E NE 1:00 1:10 1:00 F SE 1:00 1'10 1:00 1:00 8 SW 220 2:10 2:20 H NW 100 1:10 1:00 I NE 1:10 1:20 1:10 J SE 2:50 3:00 1:20 2:40 K

L SW NW 7:00 110 '20 7:10 14:20 7:00 1:10 360o EPZ ALL 7:00 7:10 14:50 7:00 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures.

(2) The'evacuation travel time ranges are Indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to snow or ice), and/or reduced visibility (e.g., due to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may create traffic disruptions as a result of downed trees or powerlines).

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b),special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such. as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given Sector.

(6) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(7) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate the non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

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TABLE 15

, EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY SECTOR SCHOOL-IN-SESSION SCENARIO NORMALWEATHER Re i nt Po tati n ~

S iai F iiitie Transients

~Set r ~Qu drool ~From-T ~From-T From- To From - To

~2-Mtle Redid A NE 0:50- 2:30 0:50 2:40 0:50- 2:30 B SE 1:30- 2:30 1:30-2:40 1'.30- 2:30 C SW - 0:50- 2:30 0:50 2:40 0:50- 2:30 D NW 0:50- 2:30 0:50 2:40 0:50- 2:30

~5-Mile Rediu NE 1:40- 2:30 1:40 2:40 1:40- 2:30 SE 1:50- 3:00 2:00-3:20 0:50 - 0:50 1:50- 3:00 SW 1:50- 3:00 2:00-3:10 1:50- 3:00 H NW 1:40- 2:30 1:40 2:40 1:40- 2:30 10-Mile Raditj I NE 1:50- 2:40 1:50 2:50 1:50- 2:40 J SE 2:10- 3:30 2:20-3:40 1:30 - 2:20 2:10- 3:30 K SW 5:00- 9:10 5:10-9:20 12:40 - 15:10 5:00- 9:10 L NW, 1:50- 2:40 1:50 2:50 1:50- 2:40 360o EPZ M ALL 5:00- 9:10 5:10-9:20 13:20 - 15:20 5:00- 9:10 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long-term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to incidents such as accidents, vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, all buses stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; (c) An informed and cooperative public follow directions as Instructed.

Upper bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation where:

(a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffic flow, but not to the point where a breakdown in traffic flow would result; (b) A low state of operational readiness results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Normal weather conditions are considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement for the above scenario.

(4) The population subgroups Indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given Sector.

(6) AII times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(7) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate the non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

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TABLE 16 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY SECTOR SCHOOL-IN-SESSION SCENARIO

, ADVERSE WEATHER Sector ~*Resident Po ulati n

"

• Transients

~2-Mii R di A NE 3:00 3:10 3:00 B SE 300 3:10 3:00 C SW 3:00 3:10 3:00 D NW 3:00 3:10 3:00 5-Mi~lR les E NE 3:10 3:20 3:10 F SE 340 3:50 1:00 3:40 G SW 3:40 3:50 3:40 H NW 3:10 3:20 10-Mile Radiu I NE 3:10 3:20 3:10 J SE 4:10 4:20 2:50 410 K SW 11:10 11:30 18:20 11:10 L NW 3:10 3.'20 3:10 360o EPZ ALL 11:10 11:30 18:20 11:10 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated ln the evacuation implementation procedures.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to snow or ice), and/or reduced visibility (e.g., due to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may create traffic disruptions as a result of downed trees or poweriines).

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps In this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given Sector.

(6) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

p) Special facility evacuation travel times Include the time for the multi.wa've trips to evacuate the non.ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

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FIGURE 24 Evacuation Travel Time Estimates James A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point, Nuclear Power Stations School-In-Session Scenario 100 90 eo ~ a Ch LJ 70 I

~-~ ~ ~ ~

~ 60 8

50 CB CB Ch CL 40 I

CB 30 thp This graph shows the percent of the total population b clearing the 10-mile EPZ by 10 minute increments for a one-CL 20 wave evacuation. Oepending upon weather conditions, the additional time required to evacuate the non-ambulatory a- population who require transport by aabulance with the d

presently available resources in a multi-wave evacuation, 10 can add from 6 hrs. to 8 hrs. 20 min. to the single-wave evacuation. 45 people are involved in this aalti-wave

~ +- / evacuation.

10 12 Time - Kours Normal e

Naather - Lover Bound t-t Normal panther . Upper Bound e Adverse tlesther

eyq 4 Wl v ~~ 4I *4~1, II ll I i I I~jl dail u A

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FIGURE 25 Evacuation Travel Time Estimates James A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point Nuclear Power Stations School-Not-In-Session Scenario 100 90 80 a ~

0 ehh 70 I

CO

-s-a -a- -a 0 O ~ .1+ ++

60 50 a ~

CB 40 CB CL 30 CP This graph shows the percent of the total population CL clearing the 10-mile EPZ by 10 minute increments for a one 20 wave evacuation. Depending upon weather conditions, the additional time required to evacuate the non-aIrbulatory

. ~ -~ population who require transport by ambulance with the presently available resources in a aulti-wave evacuation, 10 can add from 6 hrs. 20 min. to 8 hrs. 30 min. to the single-wave evacuation. 45 people are involved in this ImIlti-wave evacuation.

~

10 12 TIHE - HOURS Normal Ireather - Lover Bound

'I Normac poacher - upper Bourd ~ Adverse Ileather

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FIGURE 26 Evacuation Travel Time Estimates James A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point Nuclear Power Stations Summer Weekend/Holiday Scenario 100 90 80 O

70 I

60

> 50 Ch 40 Ch O

~ a ~

30 thp CJ 1his graph shows the percent of the total population Ch clearing the 10-mile EPZ by 10 minute increments for a one 20 wave evacuation. Depending upon weather conditions, the additional time required to evacuate the non-ambulatory population who require transport by aabulance with the 10 presently available resources in a aalti-wave evacuation, can add from 7 hrs. 10 min. to 8 hrs. 30 min. to the single-wave evacuation. IB5 people are involved in this nulti-wave evacuation.

TlHE - HOURS Bormsl lleaiher . Loser Bound ~pormal lleather . Upper Bound e Adverse lleathar

rt II I

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FIGURE 27 Evacuation Travel Time Estimates James A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point Nuclear Power Stations Winter Weekend/Holiday Scenario 100 90 80 tV Q

ro I

C) 60 Q+$ w C u B

50 Ol ~ ~

CB 40 Ch Q

CB 30 This graph shows the percent of the total population Q

clearing the 10-mile EPZ by 10 minute increments for a one-wave evacuation. Depending upon weather 20 conditions, the additional time required to evacuate the non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance with the presently available resources in a 10 multi-wave evacuation, can add from 6 hrs. 50 min. to 8 hrs. to the single-wave evacuation. 45 people are involved in this multi-wave evacuation.

~

v Normal ueother - Lover Bound ~ TIME - HOURS Bormsl uesther - upper Bound a Adverse lleather

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FIGURE 28 Evacuation Travel Time Estimates James A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point Nuclear Power Stations

=

Nighttime Scenario 100 90 80 CL 5 I 70 cD

~

5 80 ABA C

50 Ch.

O o

40 30 CLN This graph shows the percent of the total population Cp clearing the 10-mile EPZ by 10 minute increments for a one-O wave evacuation. Depending upon weather conditions, the 20 additional time required to evacuate the non-aIIbulatory population who require transport by ambulance with the presently available resources in a ImIlti-wave evacuation, 10 can add fran 7 hrs. to 8 hrs. 10 min. to the single-wave evacuation. 45 people are involved in this aalti-wave evacuation.

3 8 Time - Hours

.Normal lleolher . Lover Bauod ~Normal Neolher . Upper Booed ~ Adveree llealher

Mfl

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FIGURE 29 Evacuation Travel Time Estimates J'ames A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point Nuclear Power Stations Evening Scenario 100 90 80 CL 70 I

cD

~ 60 D

C 50 40 I

30 This graph shows the percent of the total population dhh clearing the 10-mile EPZ by 10 minute increments for a one-CL wave evacuation. 0epending upon weather conditions, the 20 additional time required to evacuate the non-aIIbulatory population who require transport by ambulance with the presently available resources in a nalti-wave evacuation, 10 can add fraa l hrs. 20 min. to 8 hrs. 20 min. to the single wave evacuation. 45 people are involved in this ImIlti-wave evacuation.

Boreal heather - Loner Bound ~ TIME -

Normal lleather KOURS

. Unpor Bound ~ Adre,ee lleather

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FIGURE 30 Evacuation Travel Time Estimates James A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point Nuclear Power Stations Classic Weekend Scenario 100 90 0

70 I

~ a u

50 40 Ch CL 30 ehh CP ~ ~

This graph shows the percent of the total population clearing ehh CL the 10-mile EPZ by 10 minute increments for a one-wave evacuation. Depending upon weather conditions, the 20 additional time required to evacuate the non-aahulatory population who require transport by erhulance with the presently available resources in a nulti-wave evacuation, can 10 add from 6 hrs. 10 min. to 8 hrs. 20 min. to the single-wave evacuation. 45 people are involved in this nulti-wave evacuation.

~

3 4 10 TIHE - HOURS Morsel Mesther . Loser Bound Morsel llesther .

M Upper Bound s Adverse Mesther

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FIGURE 31 Evacuation Time Travel Estimates James A. FitzPatrick/Nine Mile Point Nuclear Paver Stations Harborfest Weekend Scenario 100 90 80 CL 70 . ~ ~ -SA.a.

I 60 50 a

Ch cp 40 Ch D

Ch 30 This graph shows the percent of the total population the Ch. 5~ . clearing the 10-mile EPZ by 10 minute increments for a 20 one-wave evacuation. Depending upon ~esther conditions, the additional time required to evacuate the non-aahulatory population who require transport by aahulance with the presently available resources in a multi-wave 10 evacuation, can add from 5 hrs. 20 min. to 6 hrs. 30 min. to the single-wave evacuation. 45 people are involved in this multi-wave evacuation.

~

0 10 12 14 TlKE - KOURS

~ Normol heather . Lmler Bound Normal lleather -'pper Bmad e Adverse lleather

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ERPA Number e Evacuation Routes Unk Number Canada E goAd tmrnUnes County Uncs Sectcr Uncs

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V. COMPARISON TO EARLIER EVACUATIONTIME ESTIMATES Evacuation travel time estimates have been prepared for eight specific scenarios.

These scenarios are listed below in order of increasing evacuation travel time:

0 Nighttime 0 Weekend/Holiday winter, daytime 0 Weekend/Holiday summer, daytime 0 Evening 0 Classic Weekend 0 Weekday, school-not-in-session 0 Weekday, school-in-session 0 Harb orfest The evacuation travel times vary for each scenario because the number i.f vehicles required to evacuate the different population groups within the EPZ varies for each scenario. For example, the Nighttime Scenario requires the fewest number of vehicles to evacuate the population because the majority of the population is at home, most businesses are closed, and institutions have a minimal staff on duty. In essence, the number of vehicles evacuating the EPZ is small because for the most part, only the permanent resident population is being evacuated. Hence, the nighttime scenario is evacuated in the shortest amount of time.

On the other side of the spectrum, the Harborfest Scenario requires the longest amount of time to evacuate. When compared to the Nighttime Scenario, approximately 100,000 people are estimated to require evacuation during the fireworks display on Saturday night from the EPZ. This substantial population size involves more vehicles for evacuation purposes than any other scenario. Additional vehicles on the evacuation roadway network ultimately result in additional traffic congestion and longer evacuation times.

The other six scenarios result in evacuation times which fall somewhere between the nighttime and Harborfest scenarios, Similarly, the evacuation times vary with the number of vehicles evacuating the EPZ. For example, during the weekend scenarios, parks, campgrounds, and beaches are open to the public. During evening hours, the permanent resident population tends to be away from home as they may be shopping or attending entertainment venues. During the Classic Weekend, additional vehicles for those attending this event are in the EPZ. The weekday school-in-session and school-not-in-session scenarios see an increase in the transient population when compared to the weekday, evening, and nighttime scenarios. These additional activities result in more vehicles on the evacuation roadway network which again, increases evacuation times.

The evacuation travel time estimates prepared for this report were compared to the time estimates included in the earlier 1984 update. In general, the evacuation travel times for Sector M for all evacuation scenarios have increased. These increases are attributable in part to many factors including:

'I o An increase in EPZ population estimates o An increase in EPZ employment estimates o An increase in average household automobile ownership within the EPZ o Changes to the methodology and subsequent capacities of roadways within the EPZ to conform to the current 1985 Hi hwa Ca aci Manual.

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The permanent resident population within the EPZ has increased from an estimated 43,349 in 1984 to an estimated 45, 520 in 1991. A majority of the population increase has occurred along the eastern side of the Oswego River. Consequently, the evacuation travel time estimates for these ERPAs have significantly increased to the point where they require the longest time to evacuate the EPZ.

New York State Department of Labor statistics show that employment has also increased within the EPZ. The increase in employment results in additional vehicles on the evacuation roadway network and increased travel times. In addition, the evacuation of some non-essential employees from the JAF/NMP facility is included in the evacuation travel time estimates.

There are an additional 772 registered automobiles owned by the permanent resident population in the EPZ in 1991 when compared with the 1984 update estimates.

Some of these additional vehicles are the result of more multi-vehicle ownership residents which now reside in the EPZ; therefore, not all of these vehicles will be added to the'ehicle estimates for evacuation time estimate purposes.

Last of all, there has been a complete revision to the engineering methodology which estimates vehicular capacities of roadways. In 1985, a new Highway Capacity Manual was published by the Transportation Research Board which replaced the standards outlined in the 1965 Highway Capacity Manual. As a result, roadway capacities for the evacuation roadway network within the EPZ are different in the 1991 update than they were for the 1984 update. Since these roadway capacities are directly related to modeling traffic flow and estimating travel times, a change in evacuation travel times is likely to occur. Appendix F outlines methodologies contained in the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual which were used in this report. ~

V-2

APPENDICES

,t APPENDIX A EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANNING AREAS'EFINITION OF BOUNDARIES AND 1991 PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION ESTIMATES

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DEFINITION OF BOUNDARIES AND 1991 PERMANENT RESIDENT AND TRANSIENT POPULATION ESTIMATES The plume exposure pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the site has been subdivided into 29 discrete Emergency Response Planning Areas (ERPAs) as shown in Figure A-1. Estimates of 1991 permanent resident population by ERPA are included in Table A-1. The boundaries of the various ERPAs are described below:

ERPA 1 Lake Ontario on the North; Nine Mile Point, and Parkhurst Rds. to the East; Minor Rd. to the South; Bayshore, and Lakeview Rds. to the west, ERPA 2 Lake Ontario on the North; Shore Oaks Drive to the East; County Rte. 1 on the South; and to just west of County Rte. 29 between Miner and North Rds. to the West.

ERPA 3 Lake View and Miner Rds. on the North; just east of County Rte. 29 to the East; to County Rte. 1 on the South; corner of County Rts. 1 and 1A to the West.

ERPA 4 Lake Ontario on the North; Demster Beach Drive, County Rte 6 and 6A to the East; US Rte 104 on the South; Shore Oaks Dr., County Rte. 1, and to just west of Woolson and Dennis Rds. to the West.

ERPA 5 County Rte. 1 on the North; just west of Woolson and Dennis Rds.

to the East; U.S. Rte. 104 on the South; and Creamery Rd. to the West.

ERPA 6 The road just east of the Alcan Plant and Co. Rte 1A on the North; Creamery Rd. to the East; U.S. Rte. 104 on the South; and County Rte. 63 to the West.

ERPA 7 Lake Ontario on the North; just west of Mexico Pt. between County Rte. 43 and Ladd Rds. to the East; U.S. Rte 104 on the South; and County Rte. 6 and Demster Beach Drive to the West.

ERPA 8 U.S. Rte. 104 on the North; just east of and Green Rd. to the East; the intersection of Johnson and Craw Rds in Vermillion on the South; and County Rte. 6 to the West.

ERPA 9 U.S. Rte. 104 on the North; County Rte. 6 to the East; just North of Taplan Drive on the South; and to just west of Co. Rte. 51 to the West.

ERPA 10 U.S. Rte. 104 on the North; just east of Co. Rte. 51 to the East; County Rte. 4 on the South; and Klocks Corners Rd to the West.

ERPA 11 U.S. Rte. 104 on the North; Klocks Corner Rd. to the East; County Rte. 4 on the South; and City Line Rd. to the West.

ERPA 12 The City of Oswego, East of the Oswego River.

ERPA 13 The City of Oswego West of the Oswego River.

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k ERPA 14 County Rte. 5 (just past the bridge in Port Ontario) on the North; N.Y. Rte. 13, Manwaring Rd. and just east of S. Daysville Rd. to the East; Sherman Rd. on the South; and Lake Ontario to the West.

ERPA 15 Just north of the intersection of Rte. 104B, N.Y. Rte. 3 and Sherman Rd. on the North; Sherman, Spath and Smithers Rd. to the East; U.S. Rte 104, excluding the village of Mexico on the South; the intersection of George Rd. and U.S. Rte. 104, and just west of Mexico Pt., between County Rte. 43 and Ladd Rds. to the West.

ERPA 16 The Village of Mexico.

ERPA 17 U.S. Rte. 104 and the southern boundary of Village of Mexico, on the North; Emery, Stone, Larson and Pumphouse Rds. to the East; Gillette Rd. on the South; to just east of and Green Rd. to the West.

ERPA 18 Just below County 'Rte. 51, just above Taplan Dr., and the intersections of Johnson and Craw Rds. on the North; N.Y. Rte. 3, County Rte. 4, and County Rte. 35 to the East; Clifford Rd. on the South; Baldwin, Silk, and just east of O'onnor Rds. to the West.

ERPA 19 County Rte. 4 on the North; just east of Silk Rd. to the East; just above County Rte. 45, (intersecting with County Rte. 53), Myers, black Creek, and Paddy Lake Rds. on the South; the Oswego River to the West.

ERPA 20 Just above Co. Rte. 45, (intersecting with County Rte. 53), Myers, Black Creek, and Paddy Lake Rds. on the North; Silk, and Baldwin Rds. to the East; Hawk and Rowlee Rds. on the South; the Oswego River to the West.

ERPA 21 Oswego City Line on the North; the Oswego River to the East, Hickory Grove Rd. on the South; Ridge, Furniss and County Rte..25 to the West.

ERPA 22 Lake Ontario on the North; County,Rte. 7, Byer Rd., and County Rte. 25 to the East; Furniss and Tug Hill Rds. on the South; Bunker Hill Rd.

and Maple Ave. to just west of Crestwood Dr. to the West.

ERPA 23 Oswego River within the Oswego City Limits.

ERPA 24 , ....Oswego River south of the Oswego City Limits to Lock P5 in Minetto.

ERPA 25 Oswego River south of Lock P5 in Minetto North to Hickory Grove Rd.

ERPA 26 Portion of Lake Ontario within 5 miles and West of the plants.

ERPA 27 Portion of Lake Ontario within 5 miles and East of the plants.

ERPA 28 Portion of Lake Ontario between 5 and 10 miles West of the plants.

ERPA 29 Portion of Lake Ontario between 5 and 10 miles East of the plants.

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TABLE A-1 1991 PERMANENT RESIDENT AND TRANSIENT POPULATION ESTIMATES EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANNING AREAS EMERGENCY RESPONSE 1991 POPULATION ESTIMATES PLANNING AREA PERMANENT RESIDENTS TRANSIENTS 1 210 1,558 2 425 60 3 234 0 4 661 464 5 889 14 6 868 698 7 896 337 8 628 91 9 601 68 10 937 1,651 1,865 14 12 11,899 5,163 13 8,156 3,341 14 l49 2,534 15 1,873 780 16 1,724 378 17 788 70 18 1,037 78 19 1 271 75 20 1,775 312 21 1,360 802 22 7,274 476 TOTAL 45 520 19 005 A-4

APPENDIX B LISTING OF SPECIAL FACILITIES IN THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE

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OSWEGO SPECIAL FACILITIES CAMPGROUNDS

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,':i,:';.;;':,:;:,:;:;:,::,::ERPA+;;:;:;;:-..".;, ':.,'::::>PD'AYT1MB;.,:.:;i:;,NIGHT'TIME-',;p'":::i.'."-:;,";DA'CTIME ':;INIGHTTIME Oempster Grove ice Burton 963-7139 0 RD1 RL104B New Haven Cynthia Muir 963-8411 Between Rt,6 & Booth Rd.

Oswego, New York 13126 Fht Rock Campsite 15 484 Co. Rte. 16 Mexico, New York 13114 Ontario Bible Conference Camp 3-6111 272 272 0 Lakeview Road 43-9772 Oswego, New York 13126 2-5061 Tmn Pines Cabins onas & Janet Willie 175 0 0 and Campgrounds 343-2475 N. Road Ca Rte.1 + Rte. 1a hails Higgenbotharn Oswego, New York13126 343-8655

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SUNY College at Oswego mas M. Ryan 315-341-5555 (morning) 4000/2400/4000/4000 Spr 1160/240 4000/1250/4000/4000 211 CuffdnHatf . Roger Hinrichs (afternoon) 1000/500/1000/1000 Sum 875/230 Oswego, Hew York 13126 Radiation Safety Officer 341-3057 (evening) 500/300/500/500 . Fall 1160/240 le Henderson 341-2222 Win 1160/240

OSWEGO SPECIAL FACILITIES CORRECTIONAL FACILITIES

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jTR'ANSPORTATION;:

,'r ERPA'";"jY. pMAXIMUM'AVER'A'GE,""'+AY,",j EVtENING::ENIGHTy%EEKENDS Oswego County Sherim's Dept. 12 uel Todd, Undersheriff 6 5 Vehicles hold a capactty of 19 R.D. <<4, Box 5 orna 343-1897 day 343-2900 Rte. 481, at Intersection ol CR 57 orace Hotder, Corr. Supenrisor Oswogo, New York 13126 orna 592-5424 day 343-6969

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..::,.',-SmSION:,".;; ,c&'-:,'l,ooL 5'~ -",:,"ADDRESS-"I"';,"-'r,'PA."Iit. 2';"'ENROLLMENT IN .STAFF '-'"-'<HOURStt'"..i~ -<~:",;DRIVERS ".STUDENTS Chgdrrn's Center 12 IZtrgworth 341-2587 or 342-5019 Administrative :00AM - 5:31 PM, N/A N/A East 10th 8 Mitchell Sts. athy Lea 341-2587 or 342-5019 Sts/I >>F, 52 weeks Oswego, New York 13128 year Growhg Years anne Brown 8 Kathy Vh'kery - Stooks 129 on - site I :00 AM 8l PM None N/A '/A 185 East Seneca Street 3ISI 342-8992 18 IOcated at year Oswego, New York 13128 t.Prsrys Academy also: Latch-Key ISL Paufs Academy I 15 E. 5th St.

Oswego. New York 13128 Headstart Ot Oswego 13 ethl Czachor, Ida M. Scaggone, and M class 17 and PM chss 17 AM-12PM tt Ncee N/A N/A Fatgr I/nked Church eth Kazel 598-4711 or 598-4718 12:00 PM 3M PM 150 W. 5th St.

Oswego, New York 13128 Kinder College 13 ethsa Cunnhr gham 343-1981 on. Wed. Frl. 20 Teacher ZXI AM - 11:30 AM N/A N/A c/o The YMCA onlta Tyreg 343-1981 u. Thur. 13 1

t - 3Volunteers 249 West 1st Street Oswego, New York 13128 Mlnetto Nursery School argaetTalamo, Program Coordinator 1 Teacher and 2 .WF. 9:33 11:45 AM N/A N/A Mlnetto Town Hall -1420 elpln9 Par enh 12:45 MOPM/

Mlnetto, New York 13115 Swales, Teacher 342-4526 u.Th. 9M-1100 AM Mother Goose Nmsery School 18 ard Pond 963-8953 37 :15 AM - 20 PM Presbyterhn Church nne Wagner 963-3262 Church Street ChOOlre 963-7757 Mexico. New York 13114 Oswego Community Chrhlhn ster Southcolt 342-9322 14 I Teacher -

epL dune N/A School, Port City Fatth nne Nng 342-9322 t Assistant 0 AM I20 PM Assembly ol God Church W+.

Pre-School Program P.O. Box 3039 438 west 5th Stred Oswego, New York 13128 Oswego Nursery Sehod 12 Indy Hal (foes. It Thurs) 342-0371 on. - FrL None N/A Congregation Adeth bract, aren Metz (Mon., Wed, 8, Frl) 342-0371 .00- I I M AM 8 P.O.Box 23 isa Potter 341-5558 or 342-1098 12:30-3:OOPM East Third 8, OneIda Sts. ngelo FerRo 342-7159 Oswego, New York 13126

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";.'"'~'LO.CATION/j"'g,'. '~'.."CONTA5T;";";":.., 5~) '"". '%::; ':.""<<':.:,";-:.:SFAFFING"-'1 MA'Xl MUM"'i'~r~AVERAGE (<el 4 "iwyDAy~ri~%Etri'ENING"~~'j;"c~c!N IG HPn@F~j~ij~~$ ~ p AMI3 '-'ir'jNO¹AM8.

Oswego Hospital 13 Bowman (7 3) 349-5566 174 148 145 56 33 74 22 Stretchers 110 W.Sixth Street Bucher {3-11) 349-5566 :OOAM-3:OOPM) (3:OOPM-11:OOPM) (11:OOPM-7:OOAM) 52Wheeta lrs Oswego. New York 13126 . Sierrbor(t 1 7) 349-Oswego Hospital Inpatient Unit 12 tichael t Kerrera, 28 13 Mental Health Center actor 343-8162 74 Bunner Street arly P. Garirn, Oswego, New York 13126 roger 343-8162 Oswego Hospkat Outpatient Unit ichael L Henera, 12 15 Mental Health Center 12 'ctor 343-8162 74 Bunner Street nstance Mclgnstry Oswego, New York 13126 3-8162 W ~ NOTE: AMB. = AMBU(ATORY I NON-AMB. ~ NON-AMBU(ATOf)Y Ql

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l',".jL>>OPTION/.":>>-,'," -:~'.i" -';-'CONTACT"'>>'-",',"'."",-:. ".".'5".>>':s RESIDENTS:::.;.":;;k".  :"'.:::REQUIREMENTSask";

0 "v'."ADDRESS'.>>":-'"';-;ERPA'¹;.:,, ';."'.;i'"': ':":.::-':PERSONvSg":",: "i';. MAXIMUM'AVERAGE'"':!'.,tr:.': DAY::;-"-';EVENING>:!!NIGHT:;s~>~+;;";:;.;"::l," ,.r:>>sAMB:-',".':,,NON.-'AM8~

Herr-Wood Nursing Home 13 arly Miller342-2068 120 59 22 13 11 99 Wheetchairs 17 Sursfse Drive tarry Peck 343-7818 :OOAM-3:00 PM)(3:OOPM-11:00 PM) (11:00 PM-7:OOAM) 10 Stretcher Oswego, New York 13126 H1tcrest Nursing Home 13 ursing Supenrisor on duty 342-2440 61 28 10 30 70Wheetchatrs 132 Ellen Street mas M. Fahey :OOAM-3:00 PMX3:00 PM-11:00 PM) (11:00 PM-7;OOAM) 20 Stretchers Oswego, New York13126 min. 445-0391 eeper 441-6111 Intermediate Care Facilky erda Watace 598-6120 1 3 1(1200-8:OOAM) 7 2 Wheetchalrs Frrnor Road ichelfe Gorlon 963-3995 8:OOAM-4:00 PM)(4:00 PM-12:OOAM) +2 relist at 6:OOAM Mexico, New York 13114 Ladies tiorns 12 becca Dodge 17 16 6 1-2 1 13 4 Wheetchairs 43 East Utica Street 3-2962/349-8222 :OOAM-3 00 PM)(3:00 PM-11:00 PM) (11:00 PM-7:00 AM)

Oswego, New York 13126 rbara Sharkey 343-6587 Pontbc Nursing Home 12 hn A Viventio 50 13 5 0 55 Wheetchatrs East River Rond 343-1800 (H) 699-1980 6 45 AM-3 00 PMX245 PM-11:00 PM) (10:45 PM-11:00 AM) 15 Sbetchers Oswego. New York 13126 atrich Squiticri 10 Watkers 343-1800 (H) 343-6946 eorge Gatlstta 343-1800 (H)343-0048 St Lukes Heath Rehted Faciity errence Gorman 20- 25 East River Rond RDSr4 rk: 342-3166 homo: 342-032 1 Oswego, New York t3126 loria Morgan rk: 342-3166 homo 593-16$ t Vatehaven Homo for Adults ne E Breibeck 32 1 Wheelchair East Seccnd Stroet ministrator work 342-3959 8 OOAM-4:00 PM)(4:00 PM-12:OOAM) (12 00 PM-8 00AM) 2 Watters On the corner ol East Second me 342-7605 rk Oneida Streets thrine tQI, Assistant Oswego, New York 13126 rk 342-3959 home 343-6017 NOTE: AMB. = AMBUlATORY NON-AMB. ~ NOtt-AMBUlATORY

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-'::-"'-:ERPA',4~~", )-';".'",'~PERSONS"'g gg);,':DAY(HMEr'/NIGHTTIME',;:.;=-:j,:.'::,'".-.":DAYTIME'IGH1TlME Boars Sioepy Hollow Park 124 124 0 7081 Scenh Highway PuhskL New York 13142 Chedmardo Beach 8 Campsite 14 bert F. LaPoint 125 0 0 Route3 2-112mL Southof 8-5739 Port Ontario PuhskL New York13142 City Of Oswego thony Ponzt Parks and Recreation Dept. 3-0243 Fort Onhrlo Oswego, New York 13126 Dowio Dale Beach se Dowic, Owner Rte. 104B between New Haven at Dowie, Daughter and Mexico Une 963-7895 Mexico, New York 13114 Fort Oiitario 12 aul Lear, Pat Slvers cak ~ 500 day Peak = 100 evea 0 N.Y. State Historical Site 3-4711 vg. ~250 day Avg. ~ 25 even.

Fort Ontario E 7th street Dan Lyons, Bob Hudiim Oswego, New York 13126 43-1058 Mexico Point Beach 15 0 0 ft Stato Boat Launch Moxlco, New York 13114 Ramona Beach 14 bert Hickey 298-4984 210 210 18 18 Rte. 3Hagcr Drire bert Furnh 298-4521 PuhskL New York 13142 Scriba Town Park 10 rank Church, Town eak ~ 1500 0 0 0 O'onnor Road upervisor 343-3019 vg. ~ 800 Oswego. New York 13126 udith Talbot, flecreational irector, 343-1853 Selkirk Shores State Park/Beach 14 'n<h Rupert 298-5737 100 with 750 cars 1000 viith 350 cars Route 3 Dan Davis 298-5737 PuhskL New York 1314Z Sunset Cabin Trailer Park 6 Dcanne 4 with 12 cars 48 with 24 cars Co. Rte. 89 1mi. W. of Oswego ulcahcy 343-2166 Oswe Ncw York 13126

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OSWEGO SPECIAL FACILITIES PARKS/BEACHES

-'

: CONTA'CT~"'","".'i:.

."", :"".,';;.'A'DDRESS::,ll,-',"; "'."".ZRPA"-:4,'::,-",;='"'. ;4',;.'".")PERSONS'=":<<'-".Y';,'. ~~~P5DAY(HME"-.".-':~NIGEITIME.';j'-"."-.:'::"',;.iDAYTIME':.:;:NIGHTTrIME Wrfghts Landing 12 reg Neat, Director 00 with 300vehicles 200 with 150vehictes 0 0 c/o Parks and Recreational Dept. w) 342-8172 Fort Ontario W.4th 6t Lake Streets ) 963-0810 Oswego, New York 13126

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OSWEGO SPECIAL FACILITIES SCHOOLS g$';.":,LOCATION/~~~+ >@i';~":FACILIT(Y/g: i.;':~:rSES SION'"'.;::::;::

".~~$',":;ENROL'L'MENT; .','-,"ri'ADMIN;STA'FF, STUDENTS New Haven Elementary School r. Robert McGruder 963-7831 0 AM 2bt0 PM 8 NIA Route 104 -

n Pla Prhclpal New Haven, New York 13121 -

anny Yablonskl Alter Hours Oswego High School 13 kk Harveb 341-5969 1437 166 Total :45 AM 2:15 PM 31 210 2 Buccaneer Boulevard avid Coweb 341-5869 155 Have Vehtctes Stall yr15 - 9 PM Oswego, New York 13124 Oswego Middle Schod drrard Matott, Prhclpal 341-5657 Admh/Facuby/Start r15 AM 2:15 PM 14 N/A Mark Fitzgrbbcns Drive mes McAbbter, V. Prhclpal - 341-5605 d 12 cterhat and Oswego, New York 13126 Custodial Employees Palermo Elementary Schod -

r. Robert McGruder 963 7831 :00 AM - 3~ PM NIA Co. Rte 45 r. Stephen Metsch 598 - 2120 Fulton, New York 13069 St. Mary's Schod athleen Crye 343-0700 - -

6 Daby 133 14 :00 AM - 3:00 PM NIA 74 West 5th Street lean Stoner 343-0700 reSchod 14 28 -

Oswego, New York 13128 St. Paufs Academy 12 !ster Maria Horfman. Prhclpal (PreSchool - 6) 8, 6 25 Have Vehkles AM -3:30PM N/A N/A 115 Easl Frtth Street -8700 or home 343-9551 atch Key Program 12 - 25 on. Frl.

Oswego, New York 13128 ran Tynan, Sec. 343-8700 a home lu dents -

ept. June

-0177 Latch Key Program AM 5M PM Oswego Community 13 ster Southcott 342-9322 47 -

15 AM 3M PM N/A Chrhtlan School ne Khg 342<<9322 on. Frl.

P.O. Box 3039 436 West Sheath Street Oswego, New York 13126

'OTE: SCHOOL LOCATED OUTSIDE EPZ, BUT PART OF THE MEXICO ACADEMYAND CENTRAL SCHOOLS.

APPENDIX C LISTING OF TRANSPORTATION COMPANIES

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OSWEGO EVACUATlONSTUDY Ambulance Companies

C A ('(llC (' )A) CO':%A '. ( .N~C'vY

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C

,Number,of, Ambutan...C "'ce"',ews., OC

'/A'ddress""",',.'.:-,'.::,'-".-.:Flei t:,Size.l<, ..'.",',.Ev'~":>~:,',-,'"."-,::,.Factli

.,-".':.g<FIeet'::,Size,j'...  :~ivior'ntn'! :<'After'nooi'i .:":..! Ni't:"'k ,::A'mb'ulaiice~,'.L'oc'atton'! .":'.,Contact'.Peo "le,'enter Ambulance Service 13 Nestle Avenue James A. Menter 13 Nestle Avenue Fulton, New York 13069 592 4145 Fulton, New York 13069 Edward Kasperek 598 8064 Oswego Fire Depart. Ambulance 35 East Cayuga Street James Borden 35 East Cayuga Street Fire Dept. Headquarters Thomas Abbott Oswego, New York 13126 Oswego, New York 13126 Mark Murray 343 1313 NOCA Ambulance Corp. 3 ALS-Equipped 3 ALS-Equipped 2-3 Delano Street J. Penny Shutts P.O. Box 113 Ambulances Ambulances Puiaski, New York 13142 387-3231 or Delano Street 298-6516 Pulaski, New York 13142 Jeff Johnson 298-6235 Donald McFee Memorial 3 P.O. Box 115 Wm. Benjamin Ambulance Service Mexico, New York 13114 963-8594 (Home)

P.O. Box 115 Mexico, New York 13114

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OSWEGO EVACUATIONSTUDY Bus Companies

~ c!v A?: 40vecsn Fioat Size 4:"i:.":~C'"~ >< <

~a Fleet hvalivble for Evecuneoii'a~Sv S% No?,or,Vohlcfos +~;i:::: Ditver'Avail ieirr,:;"."'-~'umber I Typo ,Whoorchalr. g Nymber Type / assollg or, Whoorchalr.

Pof votircroik llariil .<<'AffotiMen FN ht A6 E Medical 4 Buses 40 0 2 Busos 40 0 3Vans- 5-6 5-6 5-6 382 West 1st St. James Bochtel 382 W. 1st Stroet 3 Vans 0 9 3 Vans 0 9 Oswego, NY 13126 342- 9570 Oswogo, Now York 13126 John Laroc'k 343- 6736 342- 2804 (Office)

Phoonix Contral Sch. Dist. 1 Van 16 0 1 Van 16 0 2 Buses N/A* N/A* NfA* Oneida Streot Mary Farrell Volnoy Street 3 Suburbans 8 0 3 Suburbans 8 0 2 Suburbans Phoenix, NY 13135 695- 1519 Phoenix, Now York 13135 2 Suburbans 15 2- 2 Suburbans 15 2 Dr. J. Robert Johnson 1 Bus 36 2 1 Bus 36 , 2 695- 1511 1 Bus 26 4 1 Bus 26 4 1 Bus 16 0 1 Bus 16 0 1 Bus 21 0 1 Bus 21 0 2 Buses 30 0 2 Buses 30 0 3 Buses 47 0 3 Buses 47 0 1 Bus 59 0 1 Bus 59 0 4 Busos 60 0 4 Buses 60 0 11 Buses 65 0 11 Buses 65 0

.9 Buses 66 0 9 Busos 66 0 2 Buses 75 0 2 Buses 75 0 1 Suburban 7 0 1 Suburban 7 0 Oswego County BOCES 3 Buses 13 2 3 Busos 13 2 22 Buses Oswego County Kathioen Fumeaux Butterfly Road 19 Buses 11 4 19 Busos 11 4 BOCES 963- 4228 Mexico, New York 13114 6 Buses 15 0 6 Buses 15 0 County Route 64 Louis Pettinelll 1 Bus 37 0 1 Bus 37 0 Mexico, NY 13114 963- 4286 2 Buses 60 0 2 Busos 60 0 Oswogo County Opport. 1 Bus 14 0 1 Bus 14 0 4 Buses 24 24 24 Hannibal Street Molody Van Buron 233 Oneida Street 2 Buses 19 0 2 Buses 19 0 7 Vans Fulton, NY 13069 598- 4713 Fuiton, Now York 13069 3 Buses 20 0 3 Buses 20 0 Gary Mashaw 1 Bus 25 3 1 Bus 25 3 598- 1612 2 Buses 28 2 2 Buses 28 2 Mary Herzog 2 Buses 32 0 2 Buses 32 0 598- 5017 1 Bus 32 2 1 Bus 32 2 2 Vane 8 2 2Vans 8 2 3 Vans 10 '2 3 Vans 10 2 3 Vans 12 0 3 Vans 12 0 1 Van 16 0 1 Van 16 0 2 Vans 16 2 2Vans 16 2 ote: s esources 0

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OSWEGO EVACUATIONSllJDY Bus Companies

<:::::::;;":@~ Overall Number/<Type'Or Vchlokis':

Fleet Stre':":~:.'4%Ca<..":t Passenger. :Wheelchair<  ;.':

t Number

"': .Ol.vohkire'"r

.~lr F loot hvallrrble lor Evacuaaon." vier!!~a<

/ Typ'e: Poaaangar;

< Mciin '."Aftomoon City School District 1 Van 10 2 1 Van 10 2 2 Buses 74 74 74 Mark Fitzgibbons Dr. DeAd Christopher Mark Fitzg'bbons Drive 1 Bus 13 2 1 Bus 13 2 1 Van Oswego, NY13126 341 5858 (A)

Oswego, Now York 13126 1 Bus 65 3 1 Bus 65 3 342 0044 (H) 1 Van 8 0 1 Van 8 0 Richard Harvoll 6 Buses 20 0 6 Buses 20 0 341 5969 (W) 1 Bus 25 0 1 Bus 25 0 343- 2935 (H) 3 Buses 29 0 3 Buses 29 0 2 Buses 55 0 2 Buses 55 0 8 Buses 60 0, 8 Buses 60 0 36 Buses 66 0 36 Buses 66 0 3 Buses 81 0 3 Buses 81 0 Central Square Central 42 Buses 44 0 42 Buses- 44 0 0 N/A* N/A* Caughdenoy Rotd Donald Harwood School District 11 Vans 16 0 11 Vans 16 0 Central Square, NY 668 3771 (W)

C/0 Paul V. Moore H.S. 13036 699 3406 (H)

Central Square, NY 13036 CNY Contro, Inc. 53 Buses 45 0 53 Busos 45 0 200Cortland Avenue Frank Kobliski 200 Cortland Avenue 103 Buses 43 2 103 Buses 43 2 108 Buses 140 Less than 140 Syracuse, New York John Rencock Syra:use, New Ycrk13202 9 Vans 8 2 9 Vans 8 2 9 Vans 140 Duke Bailey 5 Buses 16 4 5 Buses 16 4 442- 3388 8 Buses 39 0 8 Buses 39 0 2 Trolleys 21 0 2 Trolloys 21 0 2 Buses 34 2 2 Buses 34 2 3 Buses Oswego, New York 4 Buses 45 0 4 Busos 45 0 2 Buses 32 7 2 Busos 32 7 5 Buses 45 0 5 Buses 45 0 Auburn, New York 5 Buses 34 2 5 Buses 34 2 5 Buses Mexico Academy and 2 Buses 0 4 2 Buses 0 4 2 Buses 41 41 41 Route 104 Allen Humbert Central Schools 6 Buses 7 0 6 Buses 7 0 Mexico, NY 13114 Morris Bogart Route 104 1 Bus 16 0 1 Bus 16 0 963 3351 Mexico, New York 13114 1 Bus 19 0 1 Bus 19 0 1 Bus 21 0 1 Bus 21 0 1 Bus 22 0 1 Bus 22 0 1 Bus 29 0 1 Bus 29 0 1 Bus 47 0 1 Bus 47 0 1 Bus 54 0 1 Bus 54 0 10 Buses 60 0 10 Busos 60 0 21 Buses 66 0 21 Buses 66 0

• Noto: Bus sources On

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APPENDIX D TRAFFIC ZONES:

DEFINITION OF BOUNDARIES AND EVACUATION ROUTES LISTED BY TOWN

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APPENDIXD TRAFFIC ZONES'EFINITION OF BOUNDARIES AND EVACUATION ROUTES LISTED BY TOWN Town of Scriba Zone 1A: The portion of ERPA 1 east of Sunset Bay Creek.

Route: Nine Mile Point Road to Route 1 east (North Road) to N.Y. 104B east to N.Y. 3 north.

Zone1B: The portion of ERPA 1 west of Sunset Bay Creek and east of the Penn Central Railroad tracks (including J.A. FitzPatrick and Nine Mile Point Units 1 and 2).

Route: Lake Road (Route 1A) to Route 29 south to,Route 1 east (North Road) to N; Y; 104B east to N, Y. 3 north.

Zone 1C: The portion of ERPA'1 west of the Penn Central Railroad tracks.

Route: Lake View Road south to Route 1 west (North Road) to Creamery Road south to Klocks Corners Road to Route 4 east to N.Y. 176 south.

Zone 2C: The portion of ERPA 2 in the Town of Scriba.

Route: Route 29 south to Route 1 east (North Road) to N.Y. 104B east to N.Y. 3.

north.

Zone 3A: The portion of ERPA 3 east of the creek between Bayshore Grove Road, and Cliff Road.

Route:,Lake View Road south to Route 1 west (North Road) to Creamery Road south to Klocks Corners Road to Route 4 east to N.Y. 176 south.

Zone 3B: The portion of ERPA 3 west of the creek between Bayshore Grove Road and Cliff Road.

Route: Lake Road (Route 1A) west to Route 1 east (North Road) to Creamery Road south to Klocks Corners Road to Route 4 east to N.Y. 176 south.

Zone 5A: The portion of ERPA 5 east of Duke Road.

Route: Route 29 south to U.S. 104 west to Route 29 south to Route 4 east to Silk Road south.

Zone 5B: The portion of ERPA 5 west of Duke Road.

Route: Creamery Road south to Klocks Corners Road to Route 4 east to N.Y. 176 south.

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Tf S ii~b (C ti di Zone 6A: The portion of ERPA 6 east of the creek which runs from Lake Ontario to U.S. 104 and is located between County Route.53 and Klocks Corners Road.

Route: Route 1 east (North Road) to Creamery Road south to Klocks Corners, Road to Route 4 east to N.Y. 176 south.

Zone 6B: The portion of ERPA 6 west of the creek which runs from Lake Ontario to U.S. 104 and is located between County Route 53 and. Klocks Corners Road.

Route: Kocher Road south to U.S. 104 east to Route 53 south to Kingdom Road to Route 57 south.

Zone 10A: The portion of ERPA 10 east of the creek, east of the Niagara Mohawk power lines, and east of Duke Road.

Route: Route 29 south to Route 4 east to Silk Road south.

Zone10B: The portion of ERPA 10 west of Duke Road, west of the Niagara Mohawk power lines, and west of the creek.

Route: Klocks Corners Road to Route 4 east to N.Y. 176 south.

Zone 11A: All of ERPA 11.

Route: Route 53 south to Kingdom Road to Route 57 south.

Zone 19A: The portion of ERPA 19 east of Paddy Lake Road.

Route: Silk Road south.

Zone 19B: The portion of ERPA 19 west of Paddy Lake Road and east of Dutch Ridge Road and Black Creek.

Route: N.Y. 176 south.

Zone 19C: The portion of ERPA 19 west of Dutch Ridge Road and Black Creek, and east of the Penn Central Railroad tracks.

Route: Route 53 south to Kingdom Road to Route 57 south.

Zone 19D: The portion of ERPA 19 west of the Penn Central Railroad tracks.

Route: Route 481 south.

Town of New Haven Zone 2A: The portion of ERPA 2 east of Sunset Bay Creek.

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Town of New H ven (Continued)

Route: Shore Oaks Drive to Route 1 east (North Road) to N.Y. 104B east to N.Y. 3 north.

Zone 2B: The portion of ERPA 2 west of Sunset Bay Creek in the Town of New Haven.

Route: Nine Mile Point Road to Route 1 east (North Road) to N.Y. 104B east to N.Y. 3 north.

Zone 4A: The portion of ERPA 4 north of Route 1 (North Road).

Route: Route 1 east (North Road) to N.Y. 104B east to N.Y. 3 north.

Zone 4B: The portion of ERPA 4 south of Route 1 (North Road).

Route: Route 6 south.

Zone 4C: The portion of ERPA 4 south of Route 1 (North Road) and west of Mack Road and Catfish Creek.

Route: U.S. 104 east to Route 6 south.

Zone 7A: The portion of ERPA 7 north of Route 1 (North Road), east of Larkin Road and north of N.Y. 104B.

Route: Route 1 east (North Road) to N.Y. 104B to N.Y. 3 north.

Zone 7B: The portion of ERPA 7 south of N.Y. 104B and east of the East Branch of Catfish Creek.

Route: U.S. 104 east..

Zone 7C: The portion of ERPA 7 south of Route 1 (North Road), west of Larkin Road, south of N.Y. 104B, and west of East Branch of Catfish Creek.

Route: Route 6A south to Route 6 south.

Zone 8A: The portion of ERPA 8 north of Stone Road (Country Home Road) and east of the East Branch of Catfish Creek (east of Kirby Road).

Route: U.S. 104 east.

Zone 8B: The portion of ERPA 8 south of Stone Road (Country Home Road) and east of Catfish Creek and Kirby Road.

Route: Route 35 south.

Zone 8C: The portion of ERPA 8 west of East Branch of Catfish Creek, west of Kirby Road and west of Catfish Creek.

Route: Route 6 south.

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Town of New Haven (Continued)

Zone 9A: The portion of ERPA 9 east of Mud Lake Road (Route 51), south of Lilly Marsh Road, and east of the creek between Lilly Pond and Route 51.

Route: Darrow Road south to Route 6 south.

Zone 9B: The portion of ERPA 9 west of the creek between Lilly Pond and Route 51, north of Lilly Marsh Road, and west of Mud Lake Road.

Route: Route 51 east to Route 6 south.

T wn of Richlan Zone 14A: All of ERPA14.

Route: N.Y. 3 north, Town of Mexico.

Zone 15A: The portion of ERPA 15 north of Gibbs Road, north of Smith Road, west of Fort Leazier Road, and north of Countryman Road, Clark Road and Potter,"

Road.

Route: N.Y. 3 south.

Zone 15B: The portion of ERPA.15 south of Gibbs Road, east of Port Leazier Road, south of Countryman Road, and east of N.Y. 3.

Route: Fort Leazier Road south to Dewey Road to Newcomb Road to Smithers Road to U.S. 104 east.

Zone 15C: The portion of ERPA 15 south of Potter Road and Clark Road, and west of N.Y..3.

Route: Fravor Road south to U.S. 104 east.

Zone 17A: The portion of ERPA 17 east of Little Salmon River.

Route: U.S. 104 east.

Zone 17B: The"portion of ERPA 17 west of Little Salmon River.

Route: N.Y. 3 south.

~MII lM Zone 16A: The portion of ERPA 16 north of U.S. 104.

Route: U.S. 104 east.

Zone 16B: The portion of ERPA 16 south of U.S. 104.

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Route: N.Y. 3 south.

Town of Palermo Zone 18A: The portion of ERPA 18 in the Town of Palermo.

Route: Route 35 south.

Town of Volne Zone 18B: - The portion of ERPA 18 in the Town of Volney.

Route: Route 6 south.

Zone 20A; The portion of ERPA 20 east of N.Y. 176.

Route: Silk Road south.

Zone 20B: =The portion of ERPA 20 west of N:Y. 176 and east of Black Creek.

Route: N.Y. 176 south.

Zone 20C:, The portion of ERPA 20 west of Black Creek and east of the Penn Central Railroad tracks.

Route: Route 53 south to Kingdom Road to Route 56 south.

Zone 20D: The portion of ERPA 20 west of the Penn Central Railroad tracks.

Route: N.Y. 481 south.

Town of Minetto Zone 21A: The portion of ERPA 21 north of Route 25 and east of the Erie Lackawanna Railroad tracks.

Route: N.Y. 48 south.

Zone 21B: The portion of ERPA 21 south of Route 25 and east of West Fifth Street Road.

Route: Route 8 south.

Zone 21D: The portion of ERPA 21 west of the Erie Lackawanna Railroad tracks and north of Route 25.

Route: ,

Route 25 south to West Fifth Street Road south to Route 85 west.

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~T Zone 21C: The portion of ERPA 21 in the Town of Oswego.

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Route: West 5th Street Road south to Route 85 west.

Zone 22A: The portion of ERPA 22 east of the Penn Central Railroad tracks.

Route: Route 25 south to West Fifth Street Road south to Route 85 west.

Zone 22B: The portion of ERPA 22 west of the Penn Central Railroad tracks, east of Bunker Hill Road, south of Thompson Road, east of Thompson Road and south of U.S. 104.

Route: Route 7 south.

Zone 22C: The portion of ERPA 22 north of U.S. 104, west of Thompson Road, north of Thompson Road and west of Bunker Hill Road.

Route: U.S. 104 west.

Zone 12A: The portion of ERPA 12 north of U.S. 104 and east of East 13th Street.

Route: U.S. Route 104 east to Route 53 south to Kingdom Road to Route 57 south.

Zone 12B: The portion of ERPA 12 west of East 13th Street, south of U.S. 104, north of Route 4, and east of East 9th Street.

Route: Route 4 east to Route 53 south to Kingdom Road to Roue 57 south.

Route*: Route 4 east to Route 176 south.

Zone 12C: The portion of ERPA 12 west of East 9th Street and south of Route 4.

Route: N.Y. 481 south.

Zone 13A: The portion of ERPA 13 south of U.S. 104 and east of West Fifth Street Road.

Route: N.Y. 48 south.

Zone 13B: The portion of ERPA 13 south of U.S. 104, west of West Fifth Street Road, and east of Hillside Avenue.

Route: Gardenier Hill Road south to Route 7 south.

• Note: A different evacuation route is provided for Classic Weekend attendees at the Speedway located in Traffic Zone 12B.

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Zone 13C: The portion of ERPA 13 north of U.S. 104 and west of Hillside Avenue.

Route: U.S. 104 west.

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APPENDIX E ROADWAYLINKCHARACTERISTICS

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CcSWEOO EVACVATIONSTUDY OENERAL POPVIAT lON EVACUATIONUNKS TWO SANE ROADS 4 - AIUVSTMENT FACTORS +

0 WE At<< B ADVERSE AIR 5 H UN NUMBE lAN SCRPI ION UN UNK SION IAN NL 'I N ScrrCr CAPA C IT Y CAPACITY WIDTH FACTORS DIRECTION MAINUNE FROM TO NOTH SPEED WIDTH LCS A-D CPUT HEAVYVEH OSA D LCS E LCSA D lOSE LOS A-D LCS E BPUT 4 VS 10l dcrrcscn Rd Cen>>rle Rd 1.73 5$ 1 1 AS 4.0 0.08 ADUINO 0.62 027 618 1489 . 1175 OArs 0.92 0.75 5 US 104 ComerCo Rd Re 20 1.87 70 11.0 4.0 0.08 ROLUN0 0.62 0.97 688 1410 604 117$ 0.85 0.02 025 1 VS 104 Ro 20 NY 10IA 033 70 11.0 4.0 0.08 AOLUN0 0.62 0.97 618 14CQ 604 1175 05$ 0.92 0.75 10 NY 46 Erl~ 51 Csty Umll 2.00 35 $ 1$ 4.0 0.08 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 895 1515 717 1212 0.6$ 0.92 0.75 11 NY4d City Urnl fldgs way 1.$ 3 70 11.$ 4.0 0.08 IKVEL 0.64 I AO 898 151$ 717 1212 025 0.92 0.75 12 NY 48 Ftdgewsy Sns5 Bd 0.40 50 SSS 4.0 0.98 lEVEL 0.84 I AO 898 1515 717 1212 0.6$ OAc2 0.75 13 NYid Bnel Rd Power Plare 0.40 50 11.5 4AS 0.95 tEVEL 0.64 1.00 CQC 1515 717 1212 0.85 0.02 0.75 14 NY 48 Power Plant Bo 25 027 40 $$ 8 4.0 026 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 898 1515 717 1212 02$ 0.02 0.75 15

'IS NY 4d NYid Bo 2$

Bed Rto 1 023 20 1$ $ 4AI 0.98 LEVEL 0.54 1.00 dQC 1515 rtr 1212 02$ 0.92 0.75 Be 65 258 50 I 1AI 0.05 tEVEL 0.64 1.00 790 1449 632 1150 0.7$ 0.68 0.75 I'7 NY48 Ro 6$ Bobby Rd 0.80 70 I I AS 3.0 0.95 lEVEL 0.64 1.00 790 1440 632 1159 0.7$ 0 ttd 0.75 16 NYid Robby Rd Honey HS 0.93 5$ 11.0 3.0 0.98 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 700 1449 832 1150 0.7$ add 0.75 19 NY 48 Honey HII FcAton Untts 1.13 50 I 'I.O 3.0 0.95 lEVEL O.dl SAI0 790 1449 832 1159 0.75 068 0.75 21 Wesl $ 81 Rathbcrn M Rte 20 1rtr $0 $ 14 3.0 0.98 lKVEL O.dl 1.00 700 14lO 632 1150 0.7$ O.CS 0.75 22 Wed SSS Be 20 Rte 25 0.80 65 Sth 0.08 IKVEL 0.14 1.00 790 1440 IO2 1159 0.75 088 0.75 23 WoslSSt Ro 25 Fcrrtss Rd 0.40 es 105 0.0 0.91 IEVEL 0.64 1.00 811 123$ 469 088 028 0.7$ 0.75 24 Wostsdt Fcrrtss M Re 55 2.60 6$ 10.$ 0.0 0.95 lEVEL 0.84 1.00 81$ 123$ 489 088 0.55 0.7$ 0.75 28 Bo 6$ West 5 St ISdgo Rd 0.69 $$ 10.5 0.0 0.98 IEVEL 0.64 1.00 811 123$ 489 088 0.56 0.7$ 0.75 27 Be ds Rdge Rd Ror 259 5$ 10.5 0.0 0.98 lEVEL 0.64 1.00 811 123$ 489 088 0.58 0.7$ 0.75 28 Ubortydt Eton Bt 103ddo Acre 0.93 3$ 12.0 0.0 0.98 ACXUN0 0.62 OAIT 715 140$ 572 I'124 0.70 0.68 0.75 29 Rot US 104 dyer Rd I AcO $0 13.0 0.0 0.98 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 738 1449 590 1159 0.70 0.68 0.75 30 <<dH Rd Hdkldo Acts Rot IAO 55 12.0 0.0 0.98 ADLUN0 0.82 0.97 71$ 1405 572 1124 arg 0.88 0.7$

31 Bot Byor Rd O<<dH Rd 1.13 $0 11.0 4.0 0.98 LEVEL O.dl 1.00 895 1515 717 1212 0.65 002 0.75 32 Rot O<<dH Bd Be 20 0.53 $0 11.0 SAI 0.98 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 885 1350 sld 1060 0.6$ 0.62 0.75 .

33 Bot Be 20 FcrrSss Rd I.er 40 11.0 IAS 0.98 LEVEL 0.54 1.00 68$ 1350 sld 1060 0.65 0.82 0.75 34 Bet FcrrS so Rd Beaker IQI 0.67 11.0 SAS 0.98 lEVEL 0.64 1.00 88$ $ 350 548 1080 0.8$ 062 0.75 3$ Bor Bcrkor HII Re d5 2.10 11.0 SAI 0.98 lEVEt. 0.54 1.00 655 1350 548 1080 0.85 082 0.75 38 Red NY 48 Town Uno $ 59 70 10.0 1AI 0.98 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 111 123$ 450 088 0.58 0.7S 0.75 37 Bod Town Une Honey HQ 2AO 70 10.0 SAs 0.95 lEVEL 0.84 1.00 811 123$ 480 988 058 0.7$ 0.75 NY481 D<<nbodc d Re 57 1.19 70 12.0 5.0 0.98 lEVEL 0.64 1.00 1054 Idle 643 1317 1.00 IAO 0.7$

41 Bo 57 NY 461 Re 45 225 55 10.$ 0.98 LEVEL 0.14 1.00 717 1334 573 I OCT 018 0.81 0.7$

42 Be 57 Bte 4$ NY 4d1 231 55 10.$ 0.98 lEVEL O.dl 1.00 717 1334 573 1087 0 ed 061 0.75 43 44 NY 481 NY 481 Rest Bo st Fcatcn Uncts Ro 45 2.SI 70 12.0 6.0 0.98 lEVEL 0.84 1.00 10$ l Idle dls 1317 IAO 1.00 0,75 23$ 70 '$2.0 1.0 0.98 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 1054 $ 646 843 1317 I AO IAO 0.75 45 NY451 Ate 45 Be Sr 2.08 5$ $ 20 6.0 0.98 lEVEL 0dl 1.00 1054 Idld 543 1317 I AO 1.00 0.75 48 Ro Sr NY 481 Igngdom Rd O.dd 50 10.5 35 0.08 lEVEL 0.64 1.00 717 1334 573 1057 0.88 081 0.75 47 Be 57 Kkrgdcrn M Howrd Bd 0.69 70 10.0 2.0 0.98 lEVEl. O.dl ~ .00 '717 1334 573 1087 0.68 081 0.75 45 Re 57 How<<d Rd Fcatcn Umrts 1.$ 1 40 10.0 2.0 0.05 lEVEL 0.84 I.CO 717 1334 573 1067 0.88 061 0.75 52 Lsko Ad Waker Rd Bo1 0.98 70 11.5 3.0 0.98 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 790 1449 632 1150 0.75 088 0.75 5$ US 10l East 12 Bt Kocher Rd 1.1 0 70 $ 20 6.0 0.95 SEVE L 0.64 1.00 1054 tele 843 1317 1.00 1.00 0.75 58 VS 10l Kocher Rd Re 53 $ .13 55 10.0 4AS 0.98 RClUNO 0.82 0.97 788 1357 120 'I gee 0.77 0.85 0.75 58 VS 104 Nocks Ccmsr Ro SIA $ 28 10.0 ~ AI 0.98 ACXUN0 0.62 0.97 786 1357 $ 0td 0.77 0.6$ 0.75 59 US 10l Re 51A Re 29 OOS 10.0 4.0 0.98 ADIUN0 0.62 0.97 765 1357 620 1088 0.77 0.6$ 0.75 60 US 10l Bo 29 Re 29 0.1$ 70 10.0 4.0 0.98 ADLUN0 0.82 0.97 788 1357 , 629 I odd 0.77 0,65 0.75 51 US 10l Bo 29 Re $ 1 12$ 70 10.0 4.0 0.96 AQIUN8 0.62 0.97 788 1357 120 1081 0.77 0.85 0.75 US 104 Re $ 1 Mkkso fkl 038 ro 10.0 4.0 0.98 AOLUNO 0.82 0.97 768 1357 620 1068 0.77 0.65 0.75 63 VS 10l MkkQo Rd NY 1046 $ 2$ 70 10.0 4.0 0.98 AOLUNO 0.62 0.97 786 1357 129 1cce 0.77 0.8$ o,rs Cd NY 104 8 Rto I Bte 15 $ 50 70 11.$ CAI 0.98 lEVEL 0.64 SAO 960 1548 Tdl 1238 0.03 0.04 0.75 17 NY 104 8 Bo Se NY3 Srsg 70 I 'IS 6.0 0.98 LEVEL 0.14 $ .00 960 1546 7di 1238 0.03 004 0.75 68 NY3 NY 104 8 Ro 28 250 70 10.0 3.0 0.98 LEVEL 0.64 IAO 717 1334 S73 1087 0.68 0.81 0.75 69 NYS Be 28 NY 13 1.7$ 70 I IA$ 35 0.98 LEVEL 0.14 1.00 790 1449 132 $ 159 0.7$ 0.88 0.75 70 Re I Lake Ad aeamoy M 094 70 11.0 1.$ 0.98 LEVEL 0.84 1.00 68$ 1350 548 1080 O.es 0.82 0.75 71 Bto I as~Ad lake View Rd 0.68 70 11.0 $ 5 0.98 IKVEL 0.84 1.00 685 1350 5ld I CCO 0,8$ 0.82 0.7$

72 Bo I Lake View M Re 29 $ .$ 0 70 11.0 $5 098 LEVEL 0.54 1.00 165 1350 sld 1080 O,I5$ 0.82 0.75 73 Re I Ro 29 Nine ldl~ 0.94 70 11.0 15 0.98 tKVEL 0.54 1.00 68$ $ 350 Sid s ceo 0.6$ 0.82 0.75 T4 Bo I Nine Idee Shore Dsks a 0.7$ 55 I I AS $ 5 0.98 lEVEL 0.64 1.00 88$ 1350 Sid 1080 0 65 0.62 0.75 7$ Re 1 Shore Oaks a Catt eh a SAQI 55 11.0 1.$ 0.98 tEVEL 0.64 1.00 685 1310 5l8 1080 O.es 082 0.75 78 Bo I Hidcory Grcwe Re CA 031 5$ $ 15 0.$ 0.98 tEVEL 0.54 1.00 68$ sld 1080 0 I5$ 0.62 0.75 77 Ro1 Ro CA Bte 43 1.7$ 55 12.0 3.0 0.9d lKVEL 0.84 1.00 6$ 3 1531 683 122$ 0.61 0.03 0.75 78 Re4 Chsny St cny lk>> Rd 1.00 55 115 3.0 0.98 fetUN0 0.62 0.97 758 1405 812 '1124 0.7$ 0.88 ars 70 Bo4 Ctty Ur>> Rd Ro 53 1.44 55 $$ 5 3.0 0.98 ACLUN0 0.62 0.97 756 140$ 612 1124 ars 028 0.7$

60 Boi Ross Igocks Ccmer 1>>2 55 $$ 5 3.0 0.98 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 700 1440 532 I'ISO 0.7$ 0.68 0.75 61 Roi Nodes Comer NY 178 SAIQ 70 SSS 3.0 0.95 IEVEL 0.64 1.00 790 1440 CO2 1159 '.7$

0.68 "ars 63 Roi Re 29 IIkRd 0.4$ 5$ $$ 0 4.0 026 tEVEL 0.54 1.00 898 151$ 717 1212 0.6$ 0.92 0.75 87 Kocker M Ro1 US Sbl O.ce 55 SSA> $ .0 098 IEVEL 0.64 1.00 896 1515 717 1212 0.65 0.92 0.75 69 Ro 53 US 104 Rte 4 1.$ 0 70 11.5 3.$ 0.98 i lEVEL 0.54 1.00 790 1449 632 1159 0.7$ 0.68 0.75 90 Re 53 Ro4 Dutch fldgo 2.19 70 11.$ 3.$ 0.98 LEVEL 0.54 1.00 , 790 1449 632 1159 0.7$ 0.68 0.75 91 Re S3 Dutch Bdge Bo45 0.75 50 11.$ 0JC lEVEL 0.64 1.00 Said 832 1159 0.7$ 0.68 0.75 92 Bto 53 Re 4$ Rest iso 70 I I AI 00 OArd lKVEL 0.84 IAO I 350 sld 1060 0.6$ 0.82 0.7$

03 ~ amoy Bd Be 1 VS I ol 1.50 $$ 12.0 0.0 095 lKVEL 0.84 1AO 738 1449 590 1159 0.70 0.88 0.7$

04 s Comer US 104 Ro4 2.01 70 11.5 3.0 O.QS, AOlUNO 0.82 027 7CC 140$ 612 1124 0.7$ 0.88 0.75 98 o View Bd lance Rd 16ncr Rd 0.9l 3$ 12.0 0.0 0.98 lEVEL 0.84 1.00 736 1449 590 I'ISO 0.70 0.88 0.75 97 ~ View Rd l4ncr Rd Ro1 0.75 3$ 12.0 0.0 0.98 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 738 1449 SQO 1159 0.70 O.dd 0.75 98 NY 178 Ate 4 Wrcrmcro Bd 0>>5 70 11.0 3.5 0.98 LEVEL O.dl I AO 790 14lo 1159 0.7S 0.86 075

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OSWEOO EVACUATIONSTUDY OENERAL POPUIATION EVACUATIONUNKS 4 ADIUSTMENT FACTORS-TWO IANKROADS 0 WEAIHER ADVERSE WEAIH H UMBEA ION UHK UN SIO IAH SHOUtDER PEACE CAPACITY CAPACITY WlDTH FACTORS DtfECTION MAINUNE FROM TO NOTH SPEED WIDTH WIDTH HEAVYVER OSA D LOS E LOSA D LOSE LOSA D LOS A D LDS E SPIIT

$ 87 Bte 104 Urk 8 SIO Horeft>>t 0.00 70 Q.O 6.0 0.18 IEVEL 0.84 1.00 1054 1848 843 1317 1.00 1.00 0.75 168 RoM Bte 104 SaAh 1-10 $ 880 70 IIO 6.0 018 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 180 1548 Tdl 1238 0.13 0 14 0.7$

181 Bed Ato 3$ Ne 45 0.20 50 10.$ 4.0 018 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 811 1311 641 1120 0.77 06$ 0.75 110 Ro3 Bto 4$ No 264 f.00 70 10.5 40 0.18 IEVEL 064 1.00 6$ $ ISOO 641 1120 0 77 0.85 0 '7$

111 Ro 264 No 3 Bo41 2.00 70 10.5 3.0 0.18 ROIUNO 0.82 017 1214 555 1035 0.84 0 81 0 75 112 Bto 264 Ro 11 NY 181 3.00 70 10.$ 3.0 0.18 ROIUN0 082 0.17 814 1214 555 103$ 0 68 0 81 0.75 113 No4 Bod SaAANo ff 120 55 100 0.5 018 IKVEL 0.64 t.oo 611, $ 23$ 461 168 O.58 O.TS O'75 202 Bo 178 Futon C.L Ecto Rd 025 3$ 12.0 0.0 0.18 LEVEL 064 1.00 738 1441 SQO 1151 0.70 0 84 0 75 203 Rto 178 Erl~ Rd Ro3 0.51 3$ 12.5 0.0 018 IKVEL 0dl 1.00 738 1411 500 1151 0.70 0 84 0 75 2ol Rte 178 Krode ~ Ccr nor Bto 53 085 50 10.0 4.0 0.08 lEVEL 0.64 $ .00 dff 1301 840 1120 0.77 0.65 0 75 208 Ne Iol Oocroe St 10hdt 062 35 12.0 6.0 0.16 tEVEL 0.64 1.00 1054 1648 843 1317 1.00 1.00 0.75 I'74 Be 10l Re 11 No 558 4.40 70 10.0 40 0.18 BOUINO 062 0.17 788 1357 621 1088 0.77 0 65 0.75 117 Ro3 Be 4th St Emory Rd 0.57 35 12.0 0.0 008 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 738 $ 441 $ 10 1151 0.70 0 88 0.7$

118 Ne3 Emory Rd Futon C.L 0.28 35 120 0.0 0.18 tEVEL OIH 1.00 738 1441 510 1151 0.70 0.88 0.7$

115 NeS Fudon C.L dtk Rd $ 25 55 1$ .0 $ .0 0.18 LEVEL O.dl 1.00 808 1515 '717 1212 0.85 0.12 0.75 114 Ne3 Stk Rd Bo 6 1.50 70 11.0 5.0 0.18 lEVEL 0.84 1.00 818 1515 717 1212 0 65 0.12 0.75 212 Ne id1 NY461 Futon CL 1,42 70 12.0 6.0 0.18 LEVEL 0.84 1.00 1054 1848 643 1317 1.00 1.00 0.75 2fd Be.d$ WAQr SL No. 6 0.60 55 'I 0.$ 0.0 0.18 lEVEL 0.64 1.00 811 123$ 481 188 0.58 0 75 0.75 211 Rte. d Be.85 Be. 3 3.1 0 40 10.0 $ .0 018 LEVEL 0.64 1.00 811 1235 461 088 0.$ 8 0.7$ 0.75 220 Rte. 8 Bte. 3 Rte. STO 13.40 50 100 1.0 018 lEVEL 0.64 1.00 411 123$ 481 188 0.58 0.7 $ 0 75 222 Ro. 8 Re. 3 Wo for Rrt 1.00 10 I 2.0 3.0 0.18 IEVEL 0.64 $ .00 65S $ 531 68S 1225 0.81 0.13 0.7$

223 Be. 8 We for Rct I 461 7.30 40 12.0 3.0 0.18 LEVEL O.dl 1.00 853 1531 683 1225 0.81 0 13 0.75 22$ Rte. 370 fto. 8 Be.48 7.00 40 11.0 3.0 0.18 tEVEL 0.64 1.00 710 1441 832 1151 0.75 0 88 0 75 226 Wo5er Rrl Be. 3 Bo. 8 $ .10 35 1$ .0 3.0 0.88 tEVEL 0.64 t.oo 710 1441 $ 151 0.75 0 88 0 75 227 Bo. 48 Ro.48 $ -600 1.7$ 55 1$ .0 3.0 0.18 lEVEL 0.64 1.00 710 14CQ 832 1151 0.75 0 68 0.75 234 Rto. $ 78 Bte. 3 Emery 023 50 12.0 0.0 0.18 LEVEL 0.84 1.00 738 1441 510 1151 0.70 0 68 0 75 23$ No. 178 Enwy Re. 3 028 50 12.0 0.0 0.18 tEVEL 0.64 1.00 738 $ 440 510 1151 O.TO O.dd O.75

F, OSWEGO EVACVATIOMSTIDY FREEWAY UMKS 4fttt CAPACITY CAPACITY WOTH LEMOTH OES. S'0 L LOGO GSS DIST FACT fad I N SSeocene 10 1850 ON SAC 812 LCOO 008 0.75 I 470l 100 184 I 81 Rlt 40 1-800 2.41 1850 ON S Std 812 LOOO ada a7$ I 470l 1.00 585 I IH Rtt 104 Rle 40 M5 1850 aN 1.00 812 Laoa 008 CI7$ I 4704 100 108 I IH Rte 2 Rle 1$ O.N 1850 O.N 1.00 812 LOCO 008 a7$ I 4704 1.00 187 I 81 Rte 22% Ate 2 4.40 1850 ON 1.00 812 LOCO 008 0.75 I 470l 1.00 217 I-N RttW Rle. 8 ~ 425 1850 ON 1.00 812 LOCO ON a75 I 470l 1.00 22f I N Rlt. 481 I-00 500 1850 O.N 1.00 812 Laoo 008 0.75 I 470l I.CO 224 Alt.481 R'lt. 8 I dl 1520 1850 ON 100 812 LOCO 008 a75 I 4704 100 228 I-ON Rte. 48 Cot t7ounde 11.75 1850 ON 1.00 812 LOCO OPS a75 I 4704 1.00 232 Rte. 481 M<<04 Rle. 481 025 1850 003 100 812 Laoo 008 075 I 470l 100 253 Rtt. 48t Rlt. 481 Rlt. d. 7.00 f850 aN S.CO 3 812 LOOd 008 075 I 470l 100 2$ 8 Rtt. 481 Rtt. 3 Itle. 481 0.47 1850 ON S Std 3 812 LOOO 008 075 I 47OI 1.00 237 I 81 1-00 exit 38 I-800 3.30 1850 ON 1.00 3 812 La05 008 075 I 4704 1.00 2$ 8 1-100 I 81 Ced ST etnde 300 1850 ON I.CO 812 LOOo ada a75 I 4704 1.00

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OSWE 00 CYACVADONSTVDY OCICPJL POP. CYACVATIONL241$ 0 IALTLAKCIIOADS 4 DAOTWI fACT CAPACITY CAPACITY wDTII clacvoct. Dent TO LCKOIH DCS. SFD lOS D LOSD lot C wcwDDL atttoos vtnclcs LCAST CF F. Lets t EJF. TIOIINIT. LOS 0 LOS C L04 D L04 C 7 JC TOII 7 JCTOA ¹VT 104 I 027 I I KO 0. ~ I 044 AO I He I lit f221 0 II 0 2 IJS I ol Wccc $ N IOOVI Jne 000 I ~ !0 I KO are 120 ~ It 0 II 0.7$ IAO RJ IH4 I ll2 2242 0 ~I O.IS I V$ 104 Isekec Ask Jfreln 0er I clo I KO 0rl I AO ~ It Vko ON o.rs 120 RJ I HO Ill f SIN O.II 010 Wck I Sl Vl 104 DI~ N 047 1440 I KO 07I 1201 Oct vao ON 0.7$ I Ao 1st I HO Illl 0 ~I ON KY HI Vc 104 C.VICO N 0$ 1 1410 1100 arl 41 f Deco ON 0.7$ I AO RJ I HO 1112 SIN 0 ~I 4N ICF 417 Ccoce¹ Dccn LOck I O.N I IN I KO 0JO I AO c ~ It Vko ON O.rs I AO M I I40 1112 ffeo 001 4N KO Iel 2 WIN INN ate 1440 1100 ore 1.04 ~ ft Vkf ON an I AO IV I KO 112$ $410 ON 0 II ON 4N IN RIS IKN Rl 411 40$ 1440 I loo 0 tl I AO 2'I 2 Vko 4N ars I AO IV M

tKO I HO I HI 121 t 4 Ie IN Rl 2 Re 411 RI IN 4 II 14N 7100 o.re 100 Nt ON O.rs I AO 2221 041 slr Rl IH Clr N I KO are Nf Vko ON O.tl I AO M 1440 act 001 0.14 201 Iee 10$

1011N Nc¹ 4W N 411 420 1440 I IN I loo O.n 1.00 I 00 41t vae ON Ore 1.00 ISJ 'I ill I Hl 2774 ttt4 ON ON ON 4 le lec 104 ~ nec 2nd 0 II I 4$ 0 IKO an I 00 oct Dele ON ore I co M 1144 1140 SCO tl0 Re 104 fndlt Ik¹ Sc ON 1100 ore I 00 ~ It Vcl4 ON ore 100 M I HI 1144 tttl 4N 4N f1 I Re 104 lk Ja¹I kek LIILI 42$ I 444 I KO e.n I AO Nt Vclo ON o.n I AO M I HO I Ill 22N ON ON fit RI 411 Cet Llcol cl F coen ance Avr ON 1440 I ICO on 100 ~ If Vk.o ON 0.7I ~ AO M I HO liltt 22N 0 ~I 010 214 Rl 41'I Oncclc Ace ON I lie I ICO o.re I 00 412 VO.4 ON 0tl I 00 M I I40 111 2742 4 ~I 0 ~I 014 ON tie Re cl'I Cnckcn F 024 74N IKO an I AO ~ It VOAI ON 07$ I AO ISJ I HO 1112 2242 fee Rc Ill F Rc. In 047 1740 NN 047 ~ 04 ~ It vao ON 0tl \An M I leo I IH 241$ 0 II ON

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OSIVEQO EVACUATIONSTIIY GENDlALPOPULATION EVACUATIONINKS SKWALS CAPACITY AOJUS'TME NT FACTORS KIEALSAT NUMB BUS RICH LEF 1 LOS 0 LOS E IEAVY 7P US WT. CONTROL FLOW RAT CF IANE TTP PARKWQ BLOCKAG AREA CYCLE TURN TURN 75$ L CF 074 CF VVOTH VEIBCLES GRACE PARKING BLOCKAQ TYPE LWKNUMBER LANES VAOTH GRADE MVMNTSP 7CP/15I APE LENGTH CONSTAN CONSTAN CVCIE CYCIE fACT FACT FACT FACICR FACTOR FACTOR I CO 1800 11 10 0 000 100 0 120 08$ 0.05 IC57 007 000 000 ae5 1.00 'I.CO 100 1800 12 10 OT 000 1080 120 0.8$ 005 10N ISO 000 000 0.85 1.00 1.00 175 20$

IBCO 1800 115 12 10 10 OT OT 858 9L5 40.5 875 4$

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APPENDIX F METHODOLOGYTO CALCULATE EVACUATIONCAPACITIES

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APPENDIX F METHODOLOGYTO CALCULATE EVACUATIONCAPACITIES d

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travel facilities. The document reflects over two decades d I ~ lgyl I of comprehensive research lg conducted by a variety of research individuals and government agencies and, as such, represents the best available knowledge and guidance to the operational and design analysis of transportation facilities. Methodologies are summarized below for the four categories or roadway facilities and three weather conditions which are to be encountered in the EPZ.

Tw -Lane Two-Wa Roadwa s The predominant roadway type within the 10-mile emergency planning zone is the two-lane, two-way highway. A two-lane highway can be defined as a two-lane roadway with one lane dedicated for traffic, in each direction.. These roadways basically serve-an accessibility function, usually for low traffic volumes. According to the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), the general relationship describing traffic operations on these roadway segments is as follows:

SFi = (2800 passenger cars per hour) x (V/C); x fd x fw x fhv Where: SF; = Total roadway service flow rate in both directions for prevailing roadway and traffic conditions, for a specified level-of-service, in vehicles per hour; (V/C)i = ratio of flow rate to ideal capacity. for a specified level of service, obtained from Table 8-1 of the HCM; fd = adjustment factor for directional distribution of traffic, obtained from Table 8-4 of the HCM; 99'h' fw = adjustment factor for narrow lanes and restricted shoulder width, obtained from Table 8-5 of the HCM; and fhv = adjustment factor for the presence of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream.

Table 8-1 of the 1985 HCM tabulates (V/C); factors for a variety of terrain types and passing zone allowances, each of which was evaluated based on field observations.

The analysis for this project assumed the presence of few, if any, no passing opportunities for both levels-of-service D and E conditions (the HCM tables are referenced only). This assumption is valid for an evacuation scenario where virtually no opportunities would exist to pass due to anticipated traffic congestion. Accordingly, the base two-way evacuation capacity (2800 passenger cars per hour) for this type of roadway was adjusted to reflect the respective level-of-service D and E traffic flow conditions by factors of 0.64 and 1.00 (level terrain), 0.62 and 0.97 (rolling terrain), and 0.58 and 0.91 (mountainous terrain).

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Each roadway link in the evacuation network is unique in that travel characteristics

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generally vary, even if only slightly, when proceeding along the particular route in question. As such, various factors must be applied to a link's base capacity to better reflect actual travel conditions experienced by the driver. The analysis accounts for the influence of directional frictions related to the imbalance of vehicular flows in each travel direction.

For an evacuation scenario, a skewed vehicular flow split would be expected the anafysis used an approximate 90 percent outbound/10 percent inbound directional distnbution. This distribution reflects both fewer travel gaps between vehicles in the major outbound flow and the increased inability of the minor flow to identify passing gaps in the opposite flow lane.

Additional factors accounted for travel lane widths of generally 10- to 12-foot wide, and the presence of heavy truck-type vehicles in the general traffic stream. Tables 8.4 and 8.5 of the HCM tabulate the various factors applied in the analysis for directional and lane width adjustments, while a default value of 0.98 was used for the heavy truck factor as few, if any, of these vehicles will be on the road during an emergency situation.

Finally, two-way base capacity was adjusted to provide a one-way capacity in the outbound flow away from the JAF/NMP EPZ. (A conservative yet realistic 80 percent of the total flow was assigned to the outbound flow.)

As an example, from the above considerations, the base evacuation service volumes at levels-of-service D and E for Link Number 47 (Route 57 from Kingdom Road to Howard Road) were computed as follows:

SF; = 2800x (V/C)i xfdx fwxfhvxfone way SFLOS D = 2800x0.64x0.75x0.68x0.98x0.80 = 717vph SFLOS E = 2800x1.00x0.75x0.81x0.98x0.80 = 1334vph Basic Freewa Multilane Hi hwa Se ments Basic freeway segments make up a relatively small proportion of the total evacuation roadway network. The 1985 HCM defines a freeway as a divided highway facility having two or more lanes for the exclusive use of traffic in each direction and full control of access and egress. These facilities are separated by physical barriers thereby limiting driver discomfort due to oncoming traffic. The methodology uses the following equation to compute the service flow rate under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions:

SFi = MSFix Nxfwxfhvxfp Where: SFi = Service flow rate or link capacity for a specified level-of-service under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions for N lanes in one direction, in vehicles per hour; MSFi maximum service flow rate per lane for a specified level-of-service under ideal conditions, in passenger cars per hour per travel lane (pcphpl);

N number of lanes in one direction of the freeway; F-2

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fw = adjustment factor for the effects of restricted lane widths and/or lateral clearances, obtained from Table 3-2 of the HCM; fhv = adjustment factor foi the effect of heavy vehicles (trucks, buses, and recreational vehicles) in the general traffic stream; and fp = adjustment factor for the effect of driver population, obtained from

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Table 3-10 of the HCM.

The analysis begins with the selection of the maximum service flow rate based on a roadway's posted and design speed. In general, roadways with a posted speed limit of 50 mph have a design speed of 60 mph while roads with a posted speed limit of 55 mph have a design speed of 70 mph.

Table 3-1 of the 1985 HCM allows for an evaluation and selection of a maximum capacity lane associated with a specific design speed as follows:

'er BASE CAPACITY DESIGN SPEED 2000 pcphpl 70 MPH 2000 pcphpl 60 MPH 1900 pcphpl 50 MPH The base evacuation capacities at level-of-service E were further modified by a (V/C)i factor. The (V/C)i factor is the maximum volume-to-capacity ratio allowable while maintaining the performance characteristics of the level-of-service and design speed in

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question. These factors are also shown on Table 3-1 and are summarized below:

LOS E LOS D 70 MPH Design Speed - 1.00 70 MPH Design Speed -0.87 60 MPH Design Speed -1.00 60 MPH Design Speed -0.80 50 MPH Design Speed -1.00 50 MPH Design Speed - 0.76 A single adjustment factor (fw) accounts for the combined effect of lane widths, distances to the nearest obstruction, number of lanes on the freeway, and the presence of obstructions on road sides. For example, a roadway with 11-foot lanes, obstructions on both sides of the roadway at an average of 1-foot from the pavement edge for a four-lane freeway would have a factor of 0.85 this suggests that 15 percent of the freeway's ideal capacity is lost due to the lane width and lateral clearance restrictions present. The heavy vehicles factor (fhv) was assumed to be 0.98 because heavy vehicles in an emergency sitdatio'n will compose a very small proportion of the traffic stream. The ability of motorists to negotiate the roadway is accounted for in the driver population factor (f<)'with values of 0.75 and 1.00 used to respectively reflect least (LOS D) and most (LGS E) efficient traffic stream characteristics.

Multilane Highways are undivided roadways on which opposing traffic flows are separated only by centerline pavement markings and do not have full control of access.

The analysis of multilane highways differs slightly from that of freeways by the provision of one additional factor accounting for the friction experienced due to adjacent oncoming traffic as well as the presence of roadside driveways. While all other freeway-associated factors described above are directly applicable for the multilane highway, the F-3

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environmental factor (fe) is required to distinguish and analyze these facilities. Table 7-10 in the HCM.lists the environmental adjustment factors for a multilane facility.

Thus, from the above considerations, the base evacuation capacities at levels-of-service D and E for Link Numbers 163 (I-81 from Syracuse to Route 49-- a freeway segment) and 200 (Route 3 from Route 48 to 1st Street a multilane highway segment), as example computations, were computed as follows:

Fr wa Link No. 163 SFi = MSFix N xfwxfhvxfp SFLOS D = 1850 x 3 x0.98 x1.00x0.75 = 4079 vph SFfLOS E = 2000x3x1.00x0.98x1.00 = 5880vph Multilane Hi hwa Link No. 200 SFI = MSFI x N x fwx fhvx fe SFLOS D = 1450x2x0.94x0.98x0.75x0.95 = 1903vph SFfLOS E = 1900x2x0.94x0.98x1.00x0.95 = 3326vph Si nalized Arteriais Several roads within the evacuation network are controlled by signalized intersections with link capacity defined and limited by the link end point the intersection itself.

Intersection approach capacity, which governs the roadway's ability to carry and, process traffic, is the maximum rate of flow which may pass thr'ough the subject<

approach under. prevailing traffic, roadway, and signalization conditions.

The basic computation begins with the selection of an "ideal" saturation flow rate, usually 1800 passenger cars per hour of green signal time per lane (pcphpl). The saturation flow rate is the vehicular flow in vehicles per hour which could be accommodated by the specific approach assuming that the green phase is always 1.00 (i.e., no red signal phase occurs). This "ideal" saturation flow rate is adjusted as follows:

S = Sox NxfwxfhvxfgxfpxfbbxfaxfrtxfltxG/C Where: S = Saturation flow rate for the subject lane group, expressed as a total for all lanes in the lane group under prevailing conditions in vehicles per hour of green signal time; So = ideal saturation flow rate per lane, usually 1,800 pcpgpl; N = number of lanes in the lane group; fw adjustment factor for lane width; 12-ft lanes are standard; given in Table 9-5 of the HCM; F-4

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fhv = adjustment factor for heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, given in Table 9-6 of the HCM; fg adjustment factor for approach grade, given in Table 9-7 of the HCM; fp adjustment factor for the existence of a parking lane adjacent to the lane group and the parking activity in that lane, given in Table 9-8 of the HCM; fbb = adjustment factor for the blocking effect of local buses stopping within the intersection area, given in Table 9-9 of the HCM; fa = adjustment factor for area type, given in Table 9-10 of the HCM; frt = adjustment factor for right turns in the lane group, given in Table 9-11 of the HCM; fit = adjustment factor for left turns in the lane group, given in Table 9-12 of the HCM and; G/C = ratio of green signal time to total signal cycle length.

The lane width factor (fw) accounts for the deleterious effect of lanes narrower than the accepted standard of 12 feet wide, while increased flow is provided for on lanes greater than this standard. The heavy vehicle factor (fhv) is assumed to be only slightly affected (i.e., a factor of 0.99 is used to account for terrain conditions) because heavy vehicles in an emergency situation will not make up a significant proportion of the traffic stream.

Adjustment factors (fg) reflecting the effect of roadway grades on the saturation flow are provided for a variety of uphill and downhill conditions. The parking factors (fp) account for the frictional effect of a parking lane on vehicular flow in the adjacent lanes, as well as for the occasional blocking of an adjacent lane by vehicles moving into arid out of>

curbside parking spaces.'ost of the links in this category do not have parking; however, on the links where parking was observed, a minimum number of 10 parking movements per hour- was assumed in the analysis. Again, this factor was selected to represent emergency evacuation" characteristics when parking would be very minimal.

The bus blockage factor (fbb) accounts for the impacts of alighting/boarding activities of local transit buses. Clearly, this type of activity would be minimal under emergency evacuation conditions and, as such, a factor of 1.00 was used. (It must be noted that evacuation bus pickup activity will not be a frequent occurrence during an evacuation and will not affect a change in the use of this factor.) The area type factor (fa) accounts for the relative inefficiency of business area intersections in comparison to those in other locations. Right and left turn factors (frt and fit) depend upon. several parameters.

However, in an emergency evacuation situation, it is assumed that most vehicles would travel in one direction and not making turns. Furthermore, if a turn was necessary within the route, a predominant turning movement is treated as a through movement. As a result, factors of 0.85 and 0.'95 were applied for right and left turn movements the least reduction factors allowable in the methodology. The final adjustment to the saturation flow rate accounts for the amount of available green signal time relative to the total signal cycle length (G/C ratio). Factors of approximately 0.75 and 0.90 were chosen to represent levels-of-service D and E, respectively. These different traffic signal adjustment factors reflect varying degrees of preparedness, with the lower level-of-service D factor of 0.75 accounting for the likelihood of fewer traffic control agents in place during an evacuation scenario.

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A select number of intersections are regulated by STOP or YIELD controls. It was determined that they would operate similar to signalized intersections with the control and regulation of vehicular flow maintained through traffic control agents. In this manner, these locations were assumed to experience the same frictions as those present any typical signalized intersections, and were thus examined using the above-described traffic signal control criteria.

Thus, from the above considerations, the base evacuation service volumes at levels-of-service D and E for Link Number 205 (Route 104 from East 12th Street to George Street in Oswego), as an example computation, were computed as follows:

S = So x N x fw x fhv x fg x fp x fbb x fa x frt x fit x G/C SLOSD = 1800x1x1.00x0.99x0.99x0.85x1.00x1.00x0.85x0.95x0.75 ='

908 vph SLOS E = 1800 x 1 x1.00 x 0.99 x 0.99 x 0.85 x1.00 x1.00 x 0.85 x 0.95 x 0.90 =

1090 vph Adverse Weather Effects The 1985 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) does not specifically account for inclement weather conditions in the analysis of roadway travel capacities. In fact, there have been relatively few efforts to quantify the effects of adverse weather on roadway capacity.

Under adverse weather conditions such as snow, fog, severe thunder storms which result in heavy rains, localized flooding, or ice, the ability of roadways to carry traffic is reduced from that of a Level of Service D or E. Two factors account for this 'urther a decreased quality and amount of physical space on the roadway surface- 'eduction (e.g., snow on shoulders) and a more cautious attitude on the part of the driver (resulting ~

in increased headways). Level of Service D service volumes were further reduced by 20 ',

percent to account for these factors to estimate adverse weather evacuation capacities.

A standard freeway is referenced as an example to illustrate the anticipated capacity of a roadway when adverse weather conditions prevail. At Level of Service E, one lane of a standard freeway can accommodate 2,000 vehicles per hour. 2,000 vehicles is also the theoretical capacity of one freeway lane under normal weather conditions and without incident.

At a Level of Service D, one standard freeway lane can typically accommodate 1,850.

vehicles per hour; therefore, it is assumed the theoretical capacity of Level of Service D is vehicles, The Level of Service D theoretical capacity is representative of ',850 conditions which may result from a light snow, rain, or when some traffic control officers may be unable to fulfilltheir assignments. A further 20% reduction in level of Service D conditions would result in a theoretical capacity of 1,480 vehicles during adverse weather conditions.

Assuming that 10,000 vehicles were anticipated to traverse this section of freeway, it would take five hours to traverse this road section assuming Level of Service E conditions (10,000 veh : 2,000 veh/hr). Subsequently, it would take almost six hours under Level of Service D conditions and close to seven hours to travel when adverse weather conditions prevail on the same roadway section.

4

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Com ri nof1965and1985Hi hwa Ca aci Man aIM thodoto ies As previously mentioned, the 1985 HCM was used as the basis of computing roadway travel capacities in this current analysis of the JAF/NMP EPZ. Previous analyses of this roadway system used the current manual's predecessor, the 1965 Highway Capacity Manual, that was the accepted standard methodology at that time. While both manuals are theoretically correct, it is the current 1985 version that is gaining widespread acceptance for a variety of reasons.

The 1985 version has a more extensive data base in all chapters of analysis, has provisions for constant updating as warranted and, most importantly, accounts for the numerous operating characteristic and frictions that affect the roadway system and driver behaviors. The summary table below highlights the previous example 1985 HCM link computations versus those same link capacities of prior analyses utilizing the 1965 HCM, under normal conditions (i.e. a 12-foot lane, full shoulder, level terrain, and good weather).

Facili Service Volumes 1965 HCM 1985 HCM

~FFi T LOS D LOS E L'OS D LOS E 2-Lane, 2-Way 696 1200 844 1516 Freeway 2404 3440 2775 4000 Multilane Highway 2660 3800 1847 3078 Signalized Intersection 659 1136 1112 1334 F-7

APPENDIXG EVACUATIONTRAVELTIMES BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANNING AREAS

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APPENDIXG EVACUATIONTRAVELTIMES BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANNING AREAS This appendix includes evacuation travel time estimates by ERPA for a simultaneous full-EPZ evacuation. Evacuation travel time estimates are presented for the following scenarios, weather conditions, and population groups:

~Senarios School-in-Session School-not - in Session Weekend/Holiday Summer Weekend/Holiday Winter

. Evening Nighttime Classic Weekend Harborfest Weekend Weather Conditions Normal Adverse Po ulation Grou s Resident Population with Autos Resident Population without Autos Special Facilities Population Transient Population A total of 19 tables are included in this Appendix. Table 6-1 is a summary table that indicates evacuation travel times for all scenarios under normal weather conditions.

Similarly, Table 6-2 shows evacuation travel times for all scenarios under adverse weather conditions. Tables 6-3 through 6-18 each show evacuation travel times for a =

particular scenario under a particular weather condition. Table 6-19 shows evacuation travel times for schools in the EPZ to the New York State Fairgrounds for normal and adverse weather conditions. A range of values depict the lower and upperbound limits of the evacuation times for normal weather and dry roadway conditions to a light rain or snow shower which results in wet pavement. Evacuation travel time estimates for adverse weather approximate travel conditions after a severe ice storm or heavy snow once roadway crews have been able to clear the roads.

6-1

t EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA CLASSIC WEEKEND SCENARIO NORMALWEATHER TABLE G;-1 EVACUATION TRAVEL TlME ESTlMATES BY ERPA Resident Po ulation ~Seder FadlNes Transients Notes NORMAL WEATHER oath A tos Without Autos ERPA From - To From - To From- To From- To (1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in ttie evacuaticii 4:00 - 5:50 4:00 - 7:00 4:00 - 6:50 implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

2 2:00 - 3:00 2:00 - 3:00 (a) Unexpected long-term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to incidents such as accidents, vehicle

- 6:50 4:00 - 700 breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; 3 4:00

- 3:00 - 3:20 - 1:10 - 1:00 (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, ail buses 4 2:10 1:10 1:00 stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; 5 - 6:50 1:10 - 1:10 (c) An informed and cooperative public follow directions as instructed.

6 - 6:50 4:40 - 7:50 4:00 - 6:50 7 0:50 - 1:50 1:50 - 3:00 bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation where:

'pper 8 - 1:40 1:00 - 1:00 (a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffi flow, but not to the point where a breakdown in traffic flow would result; 9 0:50 - 0:50 1:00 - 1:00 (b) A low state of operational readiness results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce;

- 6:50 (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs.

10 400 - 650 4:00 - 6:50 4:00 11 3:50 - 6:50 4:40 - 7:50 The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(2) 12 - 7:50 5:00 - 7:50 4:40 -11:10 4:30 - 7:40 13 - 4:40 3:20 - 5:00 12:20 -13:50 3:00 - 4:40 (3) Normal weather conditions are considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement for the above scenario.

14 1:50 - 2:50. 1:50 - 2:50 1:50 - 2:50 j 15 1:50 - 2:50 1:20 - 2:20 1:50 - 2:50 (4) The population subgroups indicated fn this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

16 0:40 - 1:30 0:40 - 1:40

- - 1:40 (b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, othe(health care facilities, residential facilities such as 17 1:30 1:10 group homes, convents, and monasteries);

18 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 - 0:50 (c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

19 3:50 - 6:50 4:20 - 7:20 20 - 6:40 4:10 - 7:00 (S) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

21 - 2:00 0:50 - 2:10 I 22 - 4:40 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 - 4:40 (6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table assume aIsimultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuatibn will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this Table.

- 7:50 4:40 - 7:50 12:20 -13:50 4:30 - 7:40 (7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

EVACUATIONTRAVEL TIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA (8) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate the non-ambulatory HARBORFEST WEEKEND SCENARIO popufatfon who require transport by ambulance.

NORMALWEATHER l

Resident Po ulation ~Sad el Fa ditties Transients Sdlh Autos Without Autos ERPA From - To From . To From - To From - To 1 3:10 - 5:20 3:10 - 5:50 3:10 - 5:20 SK 2 1:10 - 2:20 1:10 - 2:20 3 3:10 - 5:20 3:10 - 5:30 @PER PURE 4 - 210 1:10 - 2:30 1:10 - 1:10 1:00 - 100 CARS 5

6 3:10 3:10

- 5:20

- 5:40 3:10 - 5:20 3:40 - 6:00 310 - 520 y ~

7 0:50 - 2:10 0:SO - 1:50

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9 0:50 0:50 1:40

- 0:50 1:00 1:00

- 1:00

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10 3:10 - 5:20 3:10 - 5:20 11 3:10 - 5:40 3:30 - 5:50 12 4:30 - 6:30 4:50 - 6:50 11:00 -13:00 4:10 - 6:10 13 7:00 -11:10 7:20 -11:30 13:30 -16:30 6:40 -10:50 14 0:40 - 2:10 0:50 - 2:10 0:40 - 2:10 15 0:40 - 2:10 1:20 - 2:20 0:40 - 2:10 16 0:40 - 1:30 0:40 - 1:40 17 0:40 - 1:30 1:10 - 1:40 18 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 - 0:50 19 4:10 - 6:10 3:30 - 6:20 20 4:00 - 6:00 4:10 - 6:10 2l 0:50 - 2:00 0:50 - 2:10 22 7:00 -11:10 6:40 -11:00 6:30 -10:50 6:40 -10:50

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EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA EVACUATISNTRAVEL TIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA SCHOOL-INGRESSION SCENARIO SUMMER WEEKEND/HOUDAYSCENARIO NIGHTTIMESCENARIO NORMALWEATHER NORMALWEATHER NORMALWEATHER Resident Po ulation atedat Fadtitles Trerlsleftla Resident Po uiation ateciaI Fadases Transients Resident Po ulatlon Soecial Facilities Transients Wlb Autos Without Autos With Autos Without Autos shih Autos Without Autos ERPA From - To From .To From - To From -To ERPA Ffofrt - To From - To From - To From - To ERPA From - To From - To From - To From - To 2:10 - 3:30 2:10 - 3:40 2:10 - 0:00 - 3:00 - 3:10 - 3:00 - 2:30 - 2:20 1 2:00 1:50 1 1:10 f2 20 1:10 1:10 2 2:00 - 3:20 2:10 - 3:30 - 3:20 - 3:00 - 3:00 - 2:20 - 2:20 2:00 2 2;00 2 1:10 1:10 3 - 3:00 1:50 - 2:50 2:00 - 3:00 - 3:30 - 2:20 - 2:40 3 2:10 3 1:10 1:10 4 1:00 - 1:40 1:50 - 2:40 1:10 - 1:50 1:00 - 1:40 - 3:00 2:10r - 3:20 - 1:10 - 1:00 - 2.'30 - 1:10 - 1:00 4 1:50 1:10 1:00 4 1:00 -.'2:10 1:10 1:10 1:00 5 - 3:20 - 3:40 1:50 . - 3:00 - 1:10 - 2:20 - 1:10 r 2:50 5 1:50 1:10 5 1:00 1:10 6 5:00 - 900 5:10 - 9:20 - 9:00 - 5:40 - 6:00 - 3:00 5:00 6 3:10 3:30 2:00 6 3:10 - )5:40 3:30 - 6:00 1:10 - 2:20 7 1:40 - 2:20 1:50 - 2:40 1:40 - 2:20 7 1:50 - 3:00 - 1:50 - 3:00 - 1:50 0:50 1:50 7 0:50 -I2:10 I'"

0:50 8 - 2:20 1:00 - 2:00 1:40 - 2:20 - 1:40 - 1:00 - 1:00 8 0:50 1:00 8 0:50 1:40 1:00 9 0:50 - 1:40 1:00 - 1:50 0:50 - 1:40 9 0:50 - 0:50 1:00 - 1:00 9 0:50 -,0:50 1:00 - 1:00 10 - 3:20 1:50 - 2:50 - 3:20 - 3:00 - 3:00 - 3:00 - 2:20 10 1:50 1:50 1:50 10 1:00 -l2:20 1:00 11 4:50 - 9:00 5:10 - 9:10 4:50 . 9:00 3:10 - 5:40 - 5:50 - 5:50 11 3:20 11 3:10 :js:40 3:20 12 5:00 - 9:10 5:10 - 9:20 - 9:10 - 5:40 10:50 -12:50 5:00 12 3:20 3:30 - 5:50 9:10 -10:40 3:20 - 5:40 12 3:20 -, 5:40 3:30 - 5:50 9:00, -10:10 3:20 - 5:40 13 4:20 - 7:10 4:50 - 7:30 13:20 -15:20 4:20 - 7:10 - 4:40 - 5:00 -13:00 - - 4:40 - 5:00 -

13 3:00 3:20 11:50 3:00 4:40 13 3:00 3:20 11:30 -12:40 3:00 4:40 14 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 - 0:50 - 2:50 - 2:50 - -I 2.10 14 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:50 14 0:40 0:50 - 2:10 = 0:40 . - 2:10 15 1:40 - 2:20 2:20 - 3:00 - 2.20 - 2:50 - 2:20 - -

1:40 15 1:50 1:20 1:50 2:50 15 0:40 -, 2:10 1:20 - 2:20 0:40 2:10 16 1:30 - 2:20 1:40 - 2:30 1:30 - 2:20 1:30 - 2:20 - 1:30 - 1:40 16 0:40 0:40 16 OAO -I 1:30 0:40 - 1:40 17 1:30 - 2:10 1:40 - 2:30 0:40 - 1:40 0:40 - 1:40 - 1:30 - 1:40 - 1:30 - 1:40 17 0:40 1:10 17 0:40 1:10 18 0:40 - 1:40 0:50 - 1:50 - 1:40 - 0:50 0:40 18 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 18 0:40 -'OAO 0:50 - 0:50 19 4:50 - 9:00 5:10 - 9:20 - 4:00 - 5:40 - 5:50 - 5:40 19 3:10 3:30 19 3:10 3:30 - 5:50 20 4:50 - 8:50 5:00 - 8:50 - 8:50 - 5:30 4:50 20 3:00 3:20 - 5:30 20 3:00 - 5:30 3:20 - 5:30 21 2:20 - 3:50 - 4:00 2:20 ' 3:50 2:20 - 3:50 21 0:50 - 2:00 0:50 - 2:10 21 0:50 - 2:00 0:50 - 2:10 22 4:30 - 7:10 4:30 - 7:10 4:30 - 7:10 4:30 - 7:10 22 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 - 4:40 22 3:00 -I 4:40 3:00 - 4:50 - 4:40 3:00 - 4:40 3:00

- 9:10 5:10 - 9:20 13:20 -15:8) - 9:10 - 5:40 3:30 - 5:50 11:50 -13:00 3:20 - 5:40 -f 5:40 - 6:00 - 5:4C 3:20 3:30 11:30 -12:40 3:20 SE APERTURE EVACUATIONTRAVEL TIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA CAR9 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA

~

SCHOOL-NOT-INeSESSION SCENARIO WINTER WEEKEND/HOUDAYSCENARIO FVENING SCENARIO NORMALWEATHER NORMALWEATHER Available On NORMALWEATHER Aperture Card Resident Po ulation ~seder Faotities Tra siesta Resident Po ulation S ecial Facilities Transients Resident Po ulation ~Sedat Fadliliss Transients Wth Autos Without Autos With Autos Without Autos With Autos Without Autos ERPA From .To From - To From - To From -To ERPA From - To From - To From - To From - To ERPA From - To From - To From- To From - To 1 2:10 - 0:00 2:10 - 040 2:10 - 3:30 1 1:00 2:10 1:00 - 2:20 1:00 - 1:00 1 2:00 - 3:00 2:00 3:10 1:40 - 2:40 2 2:10 - 3:20 2:10 - 3:30 - 3:20

- 3:20 - 3:40 2:10 2 1:00 1:00 1:00 - 1:00 2 2:00 -':10 2:00 3:00 3 2:10 4 2:00 - 3:10 2:20 - 3:30 - 2:CO 3 1:10 2:10 1:10 - 2:20 3 1:50 -':40 2:10 3:30 1:10 2:00 - 3:10 4 1:00 1:00 1:10 - 1:50 1:10 - 1:10 -" 3:00 - 1:00

- 3:20 4 1:50 2:10 3:20 1:10 ~ 1:10 1:00 5 2:10 - 3:40 2:00 - 3:20 - 1:10 2:10 - 2:40 6 4:50 - 8:50

- 3:10 5:10 - 9:10

- 2:10

'50 - 8:50 5

6 1:00 3:10 5:40 1:10 3:30 - 6:00 1:00 - 2:10 5

6 1:40 3:10 -':40 1:10 3:30 1:10 6:00 1:50 - 2:40 7 2:00 0:50 -

8 0:50 - 2:00 - 2:00 3:10 7 0:50 1:40 0:50 - 1:50 7 1:50 -':00 0:50 1:50 1:50 - 3:00 1:00 0:50 - 2;00 - 1:00 i 9 0:50 - 1:40 1:00 - 2:00 0:50 - 1:40 8 0:50 1:40 1:00

- 1:00 8 0:50  ; 1:40 1:00 1:00 9 0:50 0:50 1:00 9 0:50 - 0:50 1:00 1:00 10 2:10 - 3:20 2:10 - 3:20 2:10 - 3:20 - 2:10 10 1:00 2:10 1:00 10 1:40 - 2:40 1:40 1:40 - 2:40 11 4:50 - 8:50 5:00 - 9:10 4:50 - 8:50 - 5:50 11 3:10 5:40 3:20 11 3:10 - 5:40 3:20 5:50 12 5:00 - 9:00 5:10 - 8:10 11:00 -13:00 5:00 - 9:00 - 5:50 - 5:40 3:20 5:40 8:50 -10:00 3:20 -

13 4:20 - 7:00 4:50 - 7:30 13:30 -15:30 4:20 - 7:00 12 13 3:00 4:40 3:30 3:20 - 5:00 11:20 -12:30 3:00 - 4:40 12  ;

- 5:50 5:40 3:30 5:50 9:20 -10:40 3:20 5:40

- 13 3:40 4:OC 6:10 11:50 -13:10 3:40 5:50 14 1:50 3:00 2:00 - 3:00 1:50 - 3:00 - 0:40 I 14 0:40 0:40 0:50 - 0:50 0:40 14 1:50 ~ 2:50 1:50 2:50 1:50 - 2:50 15 1:50 - 3:00 1:20 - ?'40 1:50 - 3:00 - 0:40 15 0:40 1:40 1:20 - 2:20 0:40 15 1:50 -. 2:50 1:20 1:50 - 2:50 16 0:40 - 1:50 0:40 - 2:00 0:40 - 0:40. 0:40 - 1:50 16 0:40 1:30 0:40 - 1:40 16 0:40 - 1:30 0:40 1:40 17 18 0:40 0:40

- 1:50

- 1:40 1:10 - 2:00 0:50 - 1:40 0:40 - 0:40

- 1:40 17 0:40 1:30 1:10 - 1:40 '7 0:40 -':30 I

1:10 1:40 0:40 18 0:40 0:40 0:50 - 0:50 18 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 0:50 19 4:50 - 8:50 5:10 - 9:00 - 4:10

- - 8:40 2:50 19 3:10 5:40 3:30 - 5:50 19 3:10 -':40 3:30 5:50 20 4:50 8:50 5:00 4:50 - 8:50 - 5:30 20 3:00 5:30 3:20 20 3:00 - 5:30 3:20 5:30 21 2:10 - 3:30 2:20 - 3:40 0:30 - 0:30 2:10 - 3:30 - 2:10 21 0:50 2:00 0:50 21 0:50  ; 2:00 0:50 2:10 22 4:20 - 7:00 4:30 - 7:10 4:20 - 7:00 4:20 - 7:00 - 4:40 - 4:40 22 3:00 4:40 3:00 2:50 22 3:40 - 5:50 3:40 5:50 3:40 - 5:50 3:40 - 5:50 ALL - 9:00 5:10 - 9:10 13:30 -15:30 - 9:00 - 5:40 - 6:00 - 5:40 3:30 11:20 -12:30 3:20 5:50 4:00 - 6:10 11:50 -13:10 3:40 - 5:50 G"3

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EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA EVACUATIONTRAVEL TIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA SCHOOL-INGRESSION SCENARIO SUMMER WEEKEND/HOLIDAYSCENARIO NIGHTTIMESCENARIO ADVERSE WEATHER ADVERSE WEATHER ADVERSE WEATHER Resident Po ulation Resident Po ulation Resident Po ulation ERPA Wah Autos Without Autos ~Seder Faciolies Transients ERPA With Autos Without Autos /Secret FacilNes Transients Iaoth A tos Transients ERPA Without Autos ~Seder Fadsoss 4:10 4:20 4:10 1 3:40 3:50 1:10 1 2:50 3:00 2 4:10 4:10 4:10 2 3:40 3:40 2 2:50 2:50 3 3:30 3:10 3 3:40 4:00 3 2:50 3:10 4 3:00 2:10 2:00 4 3:40 3:50 1:40 4 2:40 3:00 1:40 1:10 5 4:00 4:20 3:30 5 3:40 3:40 5 1:20 6 11:10 11:30 11:10 6 7:00 7:10 3:40 6 7:00 7:10 2:50 7 3:CO 2:50 7 3:30 2:10 7 2:40 2:10 3:30 8 2:50 2:10 2:50 8 1:50 1:00 8 1:50 1:00 9 2:00 2:10 2:00 9 1:40 1:50 9 0:50 10 4:00 3:30 4:00 10 3:30 3:30 3:30 10 2:50 2:50 11 11:10 11:20 11:10 11 7:00 7:10 7:10 11 7l00 12 11:10 11:20 15:20 11:10 7:00 7:10 12:30 12 7:00 12 7:00 7:10 12:00 7:00 13 8:50 9:10 '18:20 5:40 6:10 15:30 8:50 13 5:40 13 5:40 6:10 14:50 5:40 14 1:40 1:50 14 3:30 e3:20 3:30 14 2:30 2:30 2:30 15 2:50 3:30 2:50 15 3:30 2:30 3:30 15 2:30 2:30 2:30 16 2:50 2:50 16 1:50 2:00 16 1:50 2:00 17 2:40 3:00 1:50 1:50 17 1:40 2:00 17 1',40 2:00 18 1:50 2:00 1:50 18 1:30 1:40 18 0:50 OI40 19 11:10 11:30 4:SO 19 6:50 7:10 19 6,:50 7:10 20 11:00 10:50 11:00 20 6:50 6:50 20 6;50 6:50 21 4:40 4:50 4:40 4:40 21 2:20 2:30 21 2!20 2:30 22 8:50 8:50 8:50 8:50 22 5:50 5:50 5:40 22 SJ40 5:50 5:40 S:40 11:10 11:30 18:20 11:10 7:10 15:30 ALL 7:PO 7:10 14:50 SE EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA APERTURE EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA EVACUATIONTRAVEL TIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA SCHOOL-NOT-IN-SESSION SCENARIO WINTER WEEKEND/HOUDAYSCENARIO CAR9 EVENING SCENARIO ADVERSE WEATHER ADVERSE WEATHER ADVERSE WEATHER A~hble Os Ayerture Car8 Resident Po ulation h Resident Po ulation Resident Po ulation ERPA Wth Autos Without Autos ~Seder Facilities Transients 'dlh'AArulos ERPA With Autos Wlhout Autos ~Sauter Factlilles Transients ERPA Without Autos Stseciat Facilities Transients 1 4:10 4:20 4:10 1 2:40 2:SP 1:10 1 S;AS .3:50 3:10 2 4:10 4:10 4:10 2 1:10 1:tg 2 3IIIO 3:50 3 4:10 4:20 3 2:40 2:20 3 3J$ 0 4:00 4 3:50 4:10 2:20 3:50 4 1:10 2:10 4 3;40 3:50 1:50 5 4:00 4:20 4:00 5 2:40 1:20 5 3.'10 3:10 6 11:00 11:20 11:00 6 7:00 7:10 6 7(00 7:10 3:10 7 3:50 2:30 3:50 7 1:50 2:10 7 g:30 2:10 3:30 8 2:20 1:00 2:20 8 1:50 1:00 8 ) l50 1:00 9 2:00 2:20 2:00 9 0:50 1:00 9 f:40 1:50 10 4:00 4:00 4:00 10 2:40 10 3:10 3:10 3:10 11 11:00 11:10 11:00 11 7:00 7:10 11 7:00 7:10 12 11:10 11:20 15:30 11:10 12 7:00 7:10 11:50 7:00 12 7I00 7:10 12:40 7:00 13 8:40 9:10 18:20 13 5:40 6:10 14:40 5:40 13 7;10 7:30 15:30 7:10 14 3:40 3:40 3:40 14 0:40 0:50 0:40 14 3:30 3:20 3:30 15 3:40 3:00 3:40 15 1:50 230 I 0:40 15  : 3:30 3:30 16 2:20 0:40 2:20 16 1:50 2:00 16 1:50 2:00 17 2:10 2:30 0:40 1:40 ':40 17 2:00 17 2:00 18 2:00 18 0:40 0:50 18 1':30 1:40 19 11:00 11:00 5:10 19 6:50 7:10 19 6:50 7:10 20 10:50 10:40 10:50 20 6:50 6:50 20 {i;50 6:50 21 4:10 4:30 0:40 -4:10 21 2:20 2:30 21 $ 20 22 8:40 8:50 8:40 8:40 5:40 5:50 5:40 22 7:10 7:10 7:10 J

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TABLE G-4 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA SCHOOL-IN-SESSION SCENARIO ADVERSE WEATHER Resident Po ulation ERPA Transients 1 4:10 4:20 4 tO 2 4:10 4:10 4:10 3 3:30 3:10 4 2:00 3:00 2:10 2:00 5 4:00 4:20 3:30 6 11:10 11:30 11:10 7 2:50 3:00 2:50 8 2:50 2:10 2:50 9 2:00 2:10 2:00 10 4:00 3:30 4:00 11 11:10 11:20 11:10 12 11:10 11:20 15:20 11 lO 13 8:50 9:10 18:20 8:50 14 1:40 1:50 15 2:50 3:30 2:50 16 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:50 .

17 2:40 3:00 1:50 1:50 18 1:50 2:00 1:50 19 11:10 11:30 4:50 20 11:00 10:50 11:00 21 4;40 4:50 4:40 4:40 22 8:50 8:50 8:50 8:50 ALL 11:10 11:30 18:20 11:10 Notes:

(1) Tho evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated In the evacuation implementation procedures.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to snow or ice), and/or reduced visibility (e.g., due to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may create traffic disruptions as a result of downed trees or powerlines).

(4) Tho population subgroups Indicated In this Table aro:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this table.

p) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Special facility evacuation travel times include tho time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate tho non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

G-7

TABLE 6-5 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA SCHOOL-NOT-IN-SESSION SCENARIO NORMALWEATHER Resident Po ulati n ~Trenetent With Autos Without Autos ERPA From - To ~From- T From - To ~From - T 1 2:10 - 3:30 2:10 -3:40 2:10 -3:30 2 2:10 - 3:20 2:10 -3:30 2:10 -3:20 3 2:10 - 3:20 2:20 -3:40 4 2:00 - 3:10 2:20 - 3:30 1:10 - 2:00 2:00 -3:10 5 2:10 - 3:20 2:20 -3:40 -3:20 ':00 6 4:50 - 8:50 5:10 - 9:10 o 7 2:00 - 3:10 0:50 - 2:10 2:00 -3:10 8 0:50 - 2:00 1:00 -2:00 0:50 -2:00 9 0:50 - 1:40 1:00 -2:00 0:50 -1:40 10 2:10 - 3:20 2:10 -3:20 2:10 -3:20 11 4:50 - 8:50 5:00 -9:10 4:50 - 8:50 12 5:00 - 9:00 5:10 -8:10 11:00 -13:00 5:00 -9:00 13 4:20 - 7:00 4:50 -7:30 13:30 -15:30 4:20 -7:00 14 1:50 - 3:00 2:00 -3:00 1:50 -3:00 15 1:50 - 300 1:20 -2:40 1:50 - 3:00 16 0:40 - 1:50 0:40 -2:00 0:40 - 0:40 0:40 -1:50 17 0:40 - 1:50 1:10 -2:00 0:40 - 0:40 18 0:40 - 1:40 0:50 -1:40 0:40 - 1:40 19 4:50 - 8:50 5:10 -9:00 2:50 -4:10 20 4:50 - 8:50 5:00 -8:40 4:50 -8:50 21 2:10 - 3:30 2:20 -3:40 0:30 - 0:30 2:10 -3:30 22 4:20 - 7:00 4:30 -7:10 4:20 - 7:00 4:20 - 7:00 ALL 5:00 - 9:00 5:10 - 9:10 13:30 -15:30 5:00 -9:00 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long. term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to incidents such as accidents, vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, all buses stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; (c) An informed and cooperative public follow directions as instructed.

Upper bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation where:

(a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffic flow, but not to the point where a breakdown in traffic flow would result; (b) A low state of operational readiness results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Normal weather conditions are considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement for the above scenario.

(4) The population subgroups Indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps in this Table Indicates that there is no special facility or transient population ln the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA ln a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range Indicated in this Table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate the non.ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

8-8

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II 4i tr I

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TABLE G-6 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA SCHOOL-NOT-IN-SESSION SCENARIO ADVERSE WEATHER Resident Po uiation ERPA ~Transient 1 4:10 4:20 4:10 2 4:10 4:10 4:10 3 4:10 4:20 4 3:50 4:10 2:20 3:50 5 4:00 4:20 4:00 6 11:00 11:20 11:00 7 3:50 2:30 3:50 8 2:20 1:00 2:20 9 2:00 2:20 2:00 10 4'00 4:00 4:00 11 11:00 'i1:10 11:00 12 11:10 11:20 15:30 11:10 13 8:40 9:10 18:20 8:40 14'5 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:00 3:40 16 2:20 2:20 0:40 2:20 17 2:10 2:30 0:40 18 2:00 2:00 2:00 19 11:00 11:00 5:10 20 10:50 10:40 10:50 21 4:10 4:30 0:40 4:10 22 8:40 8:50 8:40 8:40 ALL 11:10 11:20 18:20 11:10 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented In this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and Include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Adverse weather conditions are considered to bo a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to snow or ice), and/or reduced visibility (o.g., duo to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may create traffic disruptions as a result of downed trees or powerlines).

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table aro:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilitios (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented In this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this table.

(7) All times have boon rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Special facility evacuation travel times include tho time for tho multi-wave trips to evacuate tho non.ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

G-9

TABLE 6-7 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA SUMMER WEEKEND/HOLIDAYSCENARIO NORMALWEATHER R esldent Po ulation Transients with Autos ERPA From - To ~Fr m-To ~From - T ~From-7 1 2:00- 3:00 2:00 -3:10 1:50 -3:00 2 2:00- 3:00 2:00 -3:00 3 2:00- 3:00 2:10 -3:30 4 1:50- 3:00 2:10 -3:20 1:10- 1 l0 1:00 -1:00 5 1:50- 3:00 1:10 -1:10 6 3 l0- 5:40 3:30 - 6:00 2:00 -3:00 7 1:50- 3:00 0:50 -1:50 1:50 -3:00 8 0:50- 1:40 1:00 -1:00 9 0:50- 0:50 1:00 -1:00 10 1:50- 3:00 1:50 -3:00 1:50 -3:00 1.1 3:10- 5:40 3:20 -5:50 12 3:20- 5:40 3:30 -5:50 9:10 -10:40 3:20 -5:40 13 3:00- 4:40 3:20 -5:00 11:50 -13:00 3:00 -4:40 14 1:50- 2:50 1:50 -2:50 1:50 - 2:50 15 1:50- 2:50 1:20 -'2:20 1:50 - 2:50 16 0:40- 1:30 0:40 -1:40 17 0:40- 1:30 1:10 -1:40 18 0:40- 0:40 0:50 -0:50 19 3:10- 5:40 3:30 -5:50 20 3:00- 5:30 3:20 -5:30 21 0:50- 2:00 0:50 -2:10 22 3:00- 4:40 3:00 -4:40 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 -4:40 ALL 3:20 - 5:40 3:30 -5:50 11:50 -13:00 3:20 -5:40 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long-term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to Incidents such as accidents, vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobiflzed, traffic control devices operational, all buses stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; (c) An Informed and cooperative public follow directions as instructed.

Upper bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation where:

(a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffic flow, but not to the point where a breakdown in traffic flow would result; (b) A low state of operational readiness results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Normal weather conditions are considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement for the above scenario.

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population In the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this Table.

P) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate the non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

8 -10

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TABLE 6-8 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA SUMMER WEEKEND/HOLIDAYSCENARIO ADVERSE WEATHER Resident Po uiation ERPA Transients 3:40 3:50 1:10 2 3:40 3:40 3 3:40 4:00':50 4 3:40 1:50 1:40 5 3:40 3:40 6 7:00 7:10 3:40 7 3:30 2:10 3:30 8 1:50 1:00 9 1:40 1:50 10 3:30 3:30 3:30 11 7:00 7:10 12 7:00 7:10 12:30 7:00 13 5:40 6:10 15:30 5:40 14 3:30 3:20 3:30 15 3:30 2:30 3:30 16 1:50 2:00 17 1:40 2:00 18 1:30 1:40 19 6:50 7:10 20 6:50 6:50 21 2:20 2:30 22 5:50 5:50 5:40 ALL 7:00 7:10 15:30 7:00 Notes:

(1) Tho evacuation travel time ranges presented ln this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and Include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to snow or ice), and/or reduced visibility (e.g., due to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may croato traffic disruptions as a result of downed trees or powerlinos).

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate tho non.ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

8 -11

TABLE 6-9 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA WINTER WEEKEND/HOLIDAYSCENARIO NORMALWEATHER Resident P I tion 8 I I F ilitie ~7nelent With Autos Without Autos ERPA From - To ~From - T From - To From - To 1 1:00 - 2:10 1:00 -2:20 1:00 -1:00 2 1:00 - 1:00 1:00 -1:00 3 1:10 - 2:10 1:10 -2:20 4 1:00 - 1:00 1:10 -1:50 1:10 - 1:10 5 1:00 - 2:10 1:10 -1:10 6 3:10 - 5:40 3:30 -6:00 1:00 -2:10 7 0:50 - 1:40 0:50 -1:50 8 0:50 - 1:40 1:00 -1:00 9 0:50 - 0:50 1:00 -1:00 10 1:00 - 2:10 1:00 -2:10 11 3:10 - 5:40 3:20 -5:50 12 3:20 - 5:40 3:30 -5:50 8:50 -10:00 3:20 -5:40

'I3 3:00 - 4:40 3:20 -5:00 11:20 -12:30 3:00 -4:40 14 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 -0:50 0:40 -0:40 15 0:40 - 1:40 1:20 -2:20 0:40 -0:40 16 0:40 - 1:30 0:40 -1:40 17 0:40 - 1:30 1:10 -1:40 18 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 -0:50 19 3:10 - 5:40 3:30 -5:50 20 3:00 - 5:30 3:20 -5:30 21 050 - 200 0:50 -2:10 22 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 -4:40 2:50 - 4:40 ALL 3:20 - 5:40 3:30 -6:00 11:20 -12:30 3:20 -5:40 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies Indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long. term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to incidents such as accidents, vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, all buses stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; (c) An informed and cooperative public follow directions as instructed.

Upper bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation where:

(a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffic flow, but not to the point where a breakdown in traffic flow would result; (b) A low state of operational readiness results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Normal weather conditions are considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement for the above scenario.

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(6) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented In this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this Table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(6) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate the non.ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

8 -12

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TABLE 6-10 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA WINTER WEEKEND/HOLIDAYSCENARIO ADVERSE WEATHER Resid nt P 1 tion ERPA Transients 1 2:40 2:50 1:10 2 1:10 1:10 3 2:40 2:20 4 1:10 2:10 1:20 5 2:40 1:20 6 7:00 7:10 2:40 7 1:50 2:10 8 1:50 1:00 9 0:50 1:00 10 2:40 2:40 11 7:00 7:10 12 7:00 7:10 11:50 7:00 13 5:40 6:10 14:40 5:40 14 0:40 0:50 0:40 15 1:50 2:30 0:40 16 1:50 2:00 17 1:40 2:00 18 0:40 0:50 19 6:50 7:10 20 6:50 6:50 21 2:20 2:30 22 5:40 5:50 5:40 ALL 7:00 7:10 14:40 7:00 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time rangos presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation, implementation procedures.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and Include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to snow or ice), and/or reduced visibility (e.g., due to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may create traffic disruptions as a result of downed trees or powerlines).

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented In this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for tho multi-wave trips to evacuate the non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

8 -13

TABLE G-11 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA EVENING SCENARIO NORMALWEATHER Resident Po uiation Transients With Autos Without Auto ERPA From - To From - To From - To From - To 2:00 - 3:00 2:00 -3:10 I:40 -2:40 2 2:00 - 3:10 2:00 -3:00 3 I:50 - 2:40 2:10 -3:30 4 I:50 - 3:00 2:10 -3:20 I:10 - I:10 I:00 - I:00 5 I:40 - 2:40 I:10 - I:10 6 310 - 540 3:30 - 6:00 I:50 -2:40 7 I:50 - 3:00 0:50 - I:50 I:50 -3:00 8 0:50 - I:40 I:00 - I:00 9 0:50 - 0:50 I:00 - I:00 10 I:40 - 2:40 I:40 -2:40 I:40 - 2:40 11 310 - 540 3:20 -5:50 12 3:20 - 5:40 3:30 -5:50 9:20 -10:40 3:20 -5:40 13 3:40 - 5:50 4:00 -6:10 11:50 -13:10 3:40 -5:50 14 I:50 - 2:50 I:50 -2:50 I:50 -2:50 15 I:50 - 2:50 I:20 -2:20 I:50 - 2:50 16 0:40 - I:30 0:40 - I:40 17 0:40 - I:30 I:10 - I:40 18 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 -0:50 19 3:10 - 5:40 3:30 -5:50 20 3:00 - 5:30 3:20 -5:30 21 0:50 - 2:00 0:50 -2:10 22 3:40 - 5:50 3:40 -5:50 3:40 - 5:50 3:40 -5:50 ALL 3:40 - 5:50 4:00 -6:10 11:50 -13:10 3:40 - 5:50 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented In this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long-term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to incidents such as accidents,vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, all buses stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; (c) An Informed and cooperative public follow directions as Instructed.

Upper bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation where:

(a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffic flow, but not to the point where a breakdown ln traffic flowwould result; (b) A low state of operational readiness results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Normal weather conditions are considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement for the above scenario.

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps in this Table Indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA ln a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this Table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi.wave trips to evacuate the non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

G -14

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%),~pl ts I1 1

TABLE G-12 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA EVENING SCENARIO ADVERSE WEATHER Re ident P uiation ERPA Transients 1 3:40 3:50 3:10 2 3:50 3:50 3 3:20 4:00 "

4 3:40 3:50 2:00 1:50 5 3:10 3:10 6 7:00 7:10 3:10 7 3:30 2:10 3:30 8 1:50 1:00 9 1:40 1:50 10 3:10 3:10 3:10 ,

11 7:00 7:10 12 7:00 7:10 12:40 7:00 13 7:10 7:30 15:30 7:10 14 3:30 3:20 3:30 15 3:30 2:30 3:30 16 1:50 2:00 17 1:40 2:00 18 1:30 1:40 19 6:50 7:10 20 6:50 6:50 21 2:20 2:30 22 7:10 7:10 7:10 ALL 7:10 7:30 15:30 7:10 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges aro indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to snow or ice), and/or reduced visibility (e.g., due to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may create traffic disruptions as a result of downed trees or powerlines).

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps ln this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA ln a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Speciat facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi.wave trips to evacuate the non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

6 -15

TABLE G-13 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA NIGHT IME SCENARIO NORMALWEATHER Resident Po ulation ~Transient With Autos Without Autos ERPA ~From - T From - To From - To From - To 1 1:10 - 2:20 1:10 -2:30 1:10 -2:20 2 I:10 - 2:20 1:10 -2:20 3 1:10 - 2:20 1:10 -2:40 4 1:00 - 2:10 1:10 -2:30 1:10- 1:10 1:00 -1:00 5 1:00 - 2:20 1:10 -1:10 6 3:10 - 5:40 3:30 -6:00 1:10 -2:20 7 0:50 - 2:10 0:50 -1:50 8 0:50 - 1:40 1:00 - 1:00 9 0:50 - 0:50 , 1:00 -1:00 10 1:00 - 2:20 1:00 -2:20 11 3:10 - 5:40 3:20 -5:50 12 3:20 - 5:40 3:30 -5:50 9:00 -10:10 3:20 -5:40 13 3:00 - 4:40 3:20 -5:00 11:30 -12:40 3:00 -4:40 14 0:40 - 2:10 0:50 -2:10 0:40 -2:10 15 0:40 - 2:10 1:20 -2:20 0:40 -2:10 16 0:40 - 1:30 0:40 -1:40 17 0:40 - 1:30 '1:10 -1:40 18 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 -0:50 19 3:10 - 5:40 3:30 -5:50 20 3:00 - 5:30 3:20 -5:30 21 0:50 - 2:00 0:50 -2:10 22 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 -4:50 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 -4:40 ALL 3:20 - 5:40 3:30 -6:00 11:30 -12:40 3:20 -5:40 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long. term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to Incidents such as accidents, vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, all buses stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; (c) An informed and cooperative public follow directions as instructed.

Upper bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation where:

(a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffic flow, but not to the point where a breakdown in traffic flow would result; (b) A low state of operational readiness results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Normal weather conditions are considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement for the above scenario.

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps ln this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(5) The evacuation travel time ranges presented In this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range Indicated in this Table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Special facility evacuation travel times Include the time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate the non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

G -16

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~a II

~A

~ 1 1

0

TABLE G-14 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA NIGHTTIMESCENARIO ADVERSE WEATHER Resident Po Ulati n ERPA ~Transient 1 2:50 3:00 2:50 2 2:50 2:50 3 2:50 3:10 4 2:40 3:00 1:40 1:10 5 2:50 1:20 6 7:00 7:10 2:50 7 2:40 2:10 8 1:50 1:00 9 0:50 1:00 10 2:50 2:50 11 7:00 7:10 12 7:00 7:10 12:00 7:00 13 5:40 6:10 14:50 5:40 14 2:30 2:30 2:30 15 2:30 2:30 2:30 16 1:50 2:00 1? 1:40 2:00 18 0:40 0:50 19 6:50 7:10 20 6:50 6:50 21 2:20 2:30 22 5:40 5:50 5:40 5:40 ALL 7:00 7:10 14:50 7:00 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to snow or ico), and/or reduced visibility (o.g., due to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may create traffic disruptions as a result of downed trees or powerlines).

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(6) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented ln this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range Indicated in this table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(6) Special facility evacuation travel times include tho time for tho multi wave trips to evacuate tho non.ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

G -17

TABLE G -15 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA CLASSIC WEEKEND SCENARIO NORMALWEATHER Resident Po uiatlon Transients With Autos ERPA From - To From - To From - To From- To 1 4:00 - 6:50 4:00 -7:00 4:00 -6:50 2 2:00 - 3:00 2:00 -3:00 3 4:00 - 6:50 4:00 -7:00 4 1:50 - 3:00 2:10 -3:20 1:10 - 1:10 1:00 -1:00 5 4:00 - 6:50 1:10 -1:10 6 4:00 - 6:50 4:40 - 7:50 4:00 -6:50 7 1:50 - 300 0:50 -1:50 1:50 -3:00 8 0:50 - 1:40 1:00 -1:00 9 0:50 - 0:50 1:00 -1:00 10 4:00 - 6:50 4:00 - 6:50 4:00 -6:50 11 3:50 - 6:50 4:40 -7:50 12 4:40 - 7:50 5:00 -7:50 4:40 -11:10 4:30 -7:40 13 3:00 - 4:40 3:20 -5:00 12:20 -13:50 3:00 -4:40 14 1:50 - 2:50 1:50 - 2:50 1:50 -2:50 15 1:50 - 2:50 1:20 -2:20 1:50 -2:50 16 0:40 - 1:30 0:40 - 1:40 17 0:40 - 1:30 1:10 - 1:40 18 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 -0:50 19 3:50 - 6:50 4:20 -7:20 20 4:00 - 6:40 4:10 -7:00 21 0:50 - 2:00 0:50 -2:10 22 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 -4:40 3:00 - 4:40 3:00 -4:40 ALL 4:00 - 7:50 4:40 -7:50 12:20 -13:50 4:30 - 7:40 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented In this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation Implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long. term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to Incidents such as accidents, vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, all buses stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; (c) An informed and cooperative public follow directions as Instructed.

Upper bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation whore:

(a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffic flow, but not to the point where a breakdown in traffic flow would result; (b) A low state of operational readiness results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Normal weather conditions are considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement for the above scenario.

(4) The population subgroups Indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps In this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population ln the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed tho travel time range indicated in this Table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi.wave trips to evacuate the non.ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

G -18

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TABLE 6-16 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA CLASSIC WEEKEND SCENARIO

'ADVERSEWEATHER Re id nt Po ulation ERPA Transients 1 8:30 8:40 8:30 2 3:40 3:40 3 8:30 4:00 4 3:40 3:50 1:50 1:40 5 8:20 8:20 6 8:30 9:40 8:30 7 3:30 2:10 3:30 8 1:50 1:00 9 1:40 1:50 10, 8:20 8:20 8:20 11 8:20. 9:30 12 9:40 9:50 13:20 9:20 13 5:40 6:10 16:20 5:40 14 3:30 3:20 3:30 15 3:30 2.'30 3:30 16 1:50 2:00 17 1:40 '2.'00 18 1:30 1:40 19 8:20 8:50 20 8:20 8:30 21 2:20 2:30 22 5:40 5:50 ,

5:20 5:40

. ALL 9:40 9:40 16:20 9:20 Notes:

(1) Tho evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to snow or ice), and/or reduced visibility (e.g., due to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may create traffic disruptions as a result of downed trees or powerlines).

(4) Tho population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homos, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients'(employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps in this Table indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of tho entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA ln a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this table.

p) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes (8) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate the non.ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

8-19

TABLE 6-17 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA HARBORFEST WEEKEND SCENARIO NORMALWEATHER Resident Po ulation Transients With Autos Without Auto ERPA From - To From - To ~From- T From - To 1 3:10 - 5:20 3:10 -5:30 3:10 -5:20 2 1:10 - 2:20 1:10 -2:20 3 3:10 - 5:20 3:10 -5:30 4 1:00 - 2:10 1:10 -2:30 1:10 - 1:10 1:00 -1:00 5 3:10 - 5:20 3:10 -5:20 6 '

3:10 - 5:40 3:40 -6:00 3:10 -5:20 0:50 - 2:10 0:50 -1:50 8 0:50 - 1:40 1:00 -1:00 9 0:50 - 0:50 1:00 -1:00 10 3:10 - 5:20 3:10 -5:20 11 3:10 - 5:40 3:30 -5:50 12 4:30 - 6:30 4:50 -6:50 11:00 -13:00 4:10-6 io 13 7:00 - 11:10 7:20 -11:30 13:30 -16:30 6:40 -10:50 14 0:40 - 2:10 0:50 -2:10 0:40 -2:10 15 0:40 - 2:10 1:20 - 2:20 0:40 -2:10 16 0:40 - 1:30 0:40 - 1:40 17 0:40 - 1:30 1:10 -1:40 18 0:40 - 0:40 0:50 -0:50 19 4:10 - 6:10 3:30 -6:20 20 4:00 - 6:00 4:10 -6:10 21 0:50 - 2:00 0:50 -2:10 22 7:00 - 11:10 6:40 -11:00 6:30 -10:50 6:40 -10:50 ALL 7:00 - 11:10 7:20 -11:30 13:30 -16:30 6:40 -10:50 Notes:

(1) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long-term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to incidents such as accidents, vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; (b) A high state of operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, all buses stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; (c) An informed and cooperative public follow directions as instructed.

Upper bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation where:

(a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffic flow, but not to the point where a breakdown In traffic flow would result; (b) A low state of operational readiness results from minimal mobilization of the emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from the public occurs.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are Indicated as hours:minutes, and Include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Normal weather conditions are considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement for the above scenario.

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(5) Gaps tn this Table indicates that there ts no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this Table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(6) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi-wave trips to evacuate the non-ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

6-20

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TABLE 6-18 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES BY ERPA HARBORFEST WEEKEND SCENARIO ADVERSE WEATHER R sid nt Po Ulation ERPA Transients 1 6:30 6:40 6:30 2 2:50 2:50 3 6:30 3:10 4 2:40 3:00 1:20 1:10 5 6:30 6:30 6 7:00 7:10 6:30 7 2:40 2:10 8 1:50 1:00 9 0:50 1:00 10 6:30 6:30 11 7:00 7:10 12 8:00 8:20 15:30 7:40 13 13:50 14:10 19:50 13:30 14 2:30 2:30 2:30 15 2:30 2:30 2:30 16 't:50 2:00 17 1:40 2:00 18 0:40 0:50 19 7:30 7:50 20 7:30 7:30 21 2:20 2:30 22 13:50 13:10 13:20 13:30 ALL 13:50 13:10 19:50 13:30 Notes:

(t) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this Table aro based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures.

(2) The evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours:minutes, and include 20 minutes of public preparation time.

(3) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a slippery roadway surface (e.g., duo to snow or ice), and/or reduced visibility (e.g., due to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may create traffic disruptions as a result of downed trees or powerlines).

(4) The population subgroups indicated in this Table are:

(a) resident population (with and without automobiles);

(b) special facilities (schools, colleges, nursing homes, hospitals, other health care facilities, residential facilities such as group homes, convents, and monasteries);

(c) transients (employees, visitors to parks, resident and day camps, hotels, and motels).

(6) Gaps in this Table Indicates that there is no special facility or transient population in the given ERPA.

(6) The evacuation travel time ranges presented In this Table assume a simultaneous evacuation of the entire EPZ. The evacuation travel time for any individual ERPA in a staged evacuation will not exceed the travel time range indicated in this table.

(7) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(8) Special facility evacuation travel times include the time for the multi.wave trips to evacuate tho non.ambulatory population who require transport by ambulance.

6-21

TABLE 6- I9 EVACUATIONTRAVELTIME ESTIMATES WEEKDAYSCHOOL IN SESSION SCENARIO Evacuation Times To The New York State Fairgrounds ERPA Normal Adverse Dlstl1ct School Location Weather . Weather Oswego Fitzhugh Park Elementary 12 5:50 - 9:40 12:00 Kingsford Park Elementary 13 3:30 - 5:30 6:40 Charles E. Riley Elementary 12 5:40 - 7:40 9:30 Frederick Leighton Elementary 13 7,:00- 10:20 12:50 Minetto Elementary 2'l 3:30- ':20 6:30 Oswego Middle School 13 3:30 - 5:30 6:40 Oswego High School 13 7:00 - 10:20 12:50 Mexico Academy Paiermo Elementary 5:50 - 7:50 9:40 New Haven Elementary 4 5:50 - 7:50 9:40 Mexico Elementary 16 5:30 - 7:30 9:20 Mexico Middle School 16 5:30 - 7:30 9:20 Mexico High School 16 5:30 - 7:30 9:20 rivate Bishop Cunningham High School 12 5:40 - 7:40 9:30 St. Paul's Academy 12 5:40'- 7:40 9:30 St. Mary's School 13 7:00 - 10:20 12:50 BOCES 17 5:40 - 7:40 9:30 Notes:

(I) The evacuation travel time ranges presented in this table are based on operational strategies indicated in the evacuation implementation procedures. Lower bound evacuation travel times (shorter times) can be anticipated when:

(a) Unexpected long. term capacity restrictions on key highway links owing to incidents such as accidents, vehicle breakdowns, and highway construction, do not occur; (b) A high state of, operational readiness (traffic control officers mobilized, traffic control devices operational, ail buses stationed to begin their initial runs) is attained; (c) An informed and cooperative public follows directions as instructed.

Upper bound evacuation travel times (longer times) are representative of a situation where:

(a) Capacity restrictions adversely affect traffic flow, but not to tho point whore a breakdown In traffic flow would result; (b) A low state of operational readinoss results from minimal mobilization of tho emergency workforce; (c) A low degree of cooperation from tho public occurs.

(2) Tho evacuation travel time ranges are indicated as hours and minutes and Include 20 minutes of preparation time.

(s) Normal weather conditions aro considered to be clear sky and dry roadway pavement.

(4) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a slippery roadway surface (e.g., due to plowed snow or ice), and/or reduced visibility (e.g.,

due to fog, heavy rain, or a severe thunderstorm which may create traffic disruptions).

(6) All times have been rounded to the nearest 10 minutes.

(6) Palermo Elementary School is located outside of the EPZ. Evacuation times are consistent with the elementary schools located in Mexico Academy School District.

The location of the schools are listed by ERPA, however, the variations fn evacuation times to the New York State Fairgrounds for facilities located within the same ERPAs occur because schools are located in different traffic zones which comprise the ERPA.

G -22

APPENDIX H RIDESHARING METHODOLOGY

I-41

'4

APPENDIX H RIDESHARING METHODOLOGY Experience with both natural and man-made emergencies occurring in communities throughout the country has shown that the great majority of persons in the general population would, in the event of an emergency requiring evacuation, prefer to evacuate by private vehicle with family, neighbors and friends, rather than by some form of mass transportation. Those people with automobiles would use them to self-evacuate, taking along family members, neighbors and coworkers who may themselves not have an automobile.

Ridesharing is defined as the concept whereby those members of the transit dependent portion of the general population who do not own private vehicles would ride with a friend, neighbor or relative who has a vehicle, to a point outside the affected area in the event they are required to evacuate from their homes.

The methodology used to calculate the updated evacuation travel time estimates incorporates the assumption that 50% of the transit dependent population would evacuate by means of ridesharing and therefore would not require any public or emergency transportation resources to evacuate from the affected area.

Using standard and accepted traffic engineering techniques, the number of private vehicles and buses, respectively, using the roadway network in the course of an evacuation must be estimated in order to prepare evacuation time estimates. In preparing the Oswego evacuation time estimate update, it was reasonable to make assumptions on ridesharing, which in turn is used to determine the number of buses which may be required for purposes of servicing the general population. The updatecf analysis initially started with a determination, using 1990 Census data, of the number of households within each ERPA which did not report ownership of a motor vehicle.

Contrasting this data with analogous data derived from the 1980 census as employed in the initial time estimates prepared in 1980 shows an average decline throughout the Oswego EPZ of households not reporting ownership of a vehicle from 10.1% in the,1980 census to 8.9% in the 1990 census. (The 1990 number is an estimate).

The incorporation of the assumption that 50% of the transit dependent population will rideshare is a result of a conservative application of a safety margin to a study which concluded that there would be 66% rideshare, or there would be two persons availing themselves of ridesharing for every person requiring bus transportation. It should be noted that a 12% reduction in permanent resident population without automobiles has occurred over the past seven years within the EPZ. This assumption is based on several factors:

Through a telephone survey conductecf in 1987 of approximately twenty (20) nuclear sites throughout the country conducted by New York Power Authority and Con Edison representatives for the Indian Point Facility, it was learned that many utilities which are assuming ridesharing in the calculation of their evacuation time estimates assume that 66% or more of the population will rideshare. For example, at Rochester Gas and Electric's Ginna site in upstate New York, which has submitted their time estimates to, and received 350 approval from FEMA, a 50%

ricfeshare assumption is utilized.

A survey, of 461 household heads residing within the Indian Point EPZ conducted by the firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White (1980)* showed that 74% of those persons driving their own car would be willing to pick up other persons as necessary. A Roger Seasonwein Associates Inc. survey+* of 500 residents in Westchester County (1983) commissioned by Westchester County indicated that only 3% of the population would leave the area by bus, whereas twice that number - 6% of the survey respondents - would effectuate ridesharing with a friend or neighbor. Taken together, these surveys demonstrate that there would be ample opportunity for those seeking a ride to obtain it.

Actual historical evacuation experience has shown that ridesharing occurs in very large'numbers. The train derailment and resultant tank car explosions which occurred in Mississauga, Canada in 1979 resulted in the evacuation of nearly 217,000 members of the general population. Subsequent surveys of residents who evacuated the area revealed that only 2% used public transit or taxi.*** This means that over 87% of those not using or having their own vehicles evacuated by getting a ride with someone else. It is interesting to note that this occurred despite the absence of any preplanning for such an evacuation.

An explosion and fire at the Union Carbide Taft Plant near Taft, Louisiana in 1982 necessitated the evacuation of an estimated 16,000 people. Based on 1980 census data, there were an estimated 2,000 people in the evacuated area who did not own cars. Approximately 1,600 to 1,700 of the people without cars (roughly 83%) received rides out of the area with friends and neighbors. Local emergency plans assumed the need for approximately 44 school buses to evacuate those people without cars. However, during the emergency, only three (3) buses were actually needed.****

Current literature assumes that ridesharing will occur. Work by Drabek and Stephenson, as cited in studies conducted by Alan M. Voorhees for FEMA, has documented that the transit assistance provided by local authorities may be declined in favor of ridesharing with a friend, neighbor or relative. In these Voorhees studies, evacuation time estimates for eleven (11) of the most densely populated nuclear sites are assessed. Voorhees'nalysis includes the assumption that 50% of non-vePjcle owning households would be evacuated by friends, relatives or neighbors."

• FEMA has given indication that the use of a ridesharing assumption is acceptable and appropriate.

KLD Associates, Inc., which on occasion has b'een contracted by FEMA to perform evacuation related studies, states that in the case of the Seabrook site, ARe orton Tem ora Housin Needs Relatedto Evacuation ofthe IndianPoint Power Plant Area Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc., 1980.

Public 0 inion Poll conducted by Roger Seasonwein Associates, Inc., 1983.

Mississau a Evacuates: A Re ort on the Closin of Canada's Ninth Lar est Ci prepared by NUS Corporation for the Power Authority of the State of New York.

- **** Detailed Re ort on the Evacuation of December 11 1982 prepared by Environsphere Company for Louisiana Power and Light Company, 1983.

• • • • • NationalEnvironmental Studies Pro'ect Plannin Conce ts and Decision Criteria for Shelterin and Evacuation in a Nuclear Power Plant Emer enc AIF/NESP-031, 1985 H-2

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FEMA has suggested that 80% of the transit dependent population could.

evacuate by sharing space in their neighbor's private vehicles*. In telephone conversations with the Emergency Planning Manager at the Seabrook site, it was stated that the Regional Assistance Committee (RAC) suggested that Seabrook consider incorporating ridesharing in their evacuation time estimates based on documentation supported by events such as the Mississaugua evacuation. Even though ridesharing was over 80% at Mississaugua, the Seabrook site decided on a conservative factor of 50%. As the result of contentions raised during the Atomic Safety Licensing Board hearings at Seabrook with regard to the validity of the site's evacuation time estimates, FEMA requested the RAC to review the time estimates, specifically evaluating them against the guidance set forth in NUREG-0654. Dr. Thomas Urbanik, a recognized expert in the field, also reviewed the time estimates. The conclusion of the RAC, Dr. Urbanik and FEMA was that the evacuation time estimates (which included a 50% rideshare assumption) sufficiently complied with NUREG-0654 so as to serve as an adequate basis for protective action decision-making.

Based on the foregoing supportive documentation, actual evacuation experience has shown that as much as 87% of the transit dependent population will evacuate an affected area utilizing rideshare arrangements. Personal surveys indicate that ridesharing will occur; i.e., the need for a ride can be met by those willing to provide a ride. It was therefore determined that the best estimate of the transit-dependent population is 33% of the EPZ population from households reporting no automobile ownership in the 1990 census. This ratio of one bus rider to two ridesharers is the same as the ratio found in the Seasonwein survey and is in the mainstream of planning practices nationally. Nonetheless, for the purpose of these evacuation time estimates it was determined that the size of the transit dependent population should be increased by 50% above the base case, resulting in an assumption of 50% (rather than 33%) transit vehicles. In light of this margin, it is concluded that the assumption that 50% of the transit dependent population will rideshare in the event that an evacuation is necessary, is both a valid and conservative assumption.

S eabrook Station Evacuation Time Estimates and Traffic Mana ement Plan

~Udate, KLD Associates, Inc., 1966.

APPENDIX I METHODOLOGYTO ESTIMATE ROADWAYTRAVELTIMES DURING AN EVACUATION

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APPENDIX I METHODOLOGYTO ESTIMATE ROADWAYTRAVELTIMES DURING AN EVACUATION A. Introduction This Appendix describes the traffic engineering computer model used to estimate roadway travel times during an evacuation of the JAF/NMP EPZ. The model used in this study has also been applied to the Indian Point (New York),'Three Mile Island (Pennsylvania), and Salem/Hope Creek (New Jersey and Delaware) Emergency Planning Zones. To evaluate the computer model used in the aforementioned studies, a separate analysis was conducted using a different model for the purpose of comparing results. The Indian Point EPZ was selected for the comparative study because of the diverse characteristics of its roadway network and population density.

As described later in this Appendix, the comparative study showed that both models provide quite similar estimates of evacuation travel time. Thus, it is concluded that the model used to estimate travel times for the JAF/NMP EPZ can be applied with a high degree of confidence.

The remaining sections of this Appendix discuss the traffic assignment process used for the JAF/NMP EPZ, present the detailed results of the comparative study; and summarize the conclusions drawn from the comparison of traffic models.

B. Static Traffic Assi nment Process

1. ~ln Uts The static traffic assignment process developed to estimate roadway travel times during an evacuation requires three basic types of input. The first type relates to the characteristics of the evacuation roadway network, which is comprised of one-directional links, each having its own attributes. The links are described in terms of their capability to accommodate evacuating traffic (evacuation capacity), length, and free-flow speed (speed limit).

The second type of input required for this assignment process is zonal vehicle trip generation data. The EPZ is disaggregated into traffic zones, and the numbers of trips by each vehicle type (e.g., autos, buses, ambulances) are estimated in terms of passenger car equivalents (PCE's) for each traffic zone. Buses are weighted as the equivalent of two passenger cars in this analysis. In addition, a terminal time for all trip types for each traffic zone is input.

The third input type used in the static assignment process is evacuation path data. Evacuation routes are designated fixed paths extending from the traffic zones to the Sector boundary via specific roadways. Separate paths are developed for each trip type and are expressed in terms of connecting link numbers. Destinations (e.g.,

reception centers) are defined for each traffic zone and input for the purpose of determining the number of vehicles and passengers expected at each destination.

Average vehicle occupancies are used to estimate the number of passengers arriving in vehicles at the destination.

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2. Static Assi nment AI orithm A computer program was written to process the above input data and compute roadway travel times for each trip type by traffic zone. A flow chart of the static traffic assignment computer program is included at the end of this Appendix.

Initially, the program calculates the total vehicular demand volume (in PCE's) on each link in the network by aggregating the vehicle trips generated by each traffic zone along the evacuation path. Implicit in this assignment is the assumption that all vehicles from all zones using a given evacuation route are on each link along the designated route concurrently. The assignment process is thus considered "static", because the spatial movement of vehicles across the network is not explicitly recognized as a function of time.

For each link in the network, three additional computations are performed. First, the free-flow speed is calculated as the quotient of the link length and the free flow speed. Second, the total vehicular demand volume is divided by the hourly evacuation capacity (for the appropriate weather condition) of the link to obtain the volume/capacity (V/C) relationship for the link. Finally, the evacuation speed or delay time is computed for each link, depending on whether the V/C ratio is less than or greater than 1.0, respectively. The formula contained in the Federal Highway Administration Traffic Assi nment Manual, August 1973, was adopted and modified as follows for use in computing the speed at which evacuees will travel when capacity exceeds demand.

Evacuation Speed = Free-Flow S eed 4

0.25 Demand +1 Capacity (for demand <capacity)

Following these calculations, the model computes the roadway travel time for each traffic zone's evacuation route (or routes since some buses and special vehicles had separate routes) by scanning the links comprising the evacuation route to determine maximum V/C ratio along the route.

When the hourly evacuation capacity exceeds the total demand volume (V/C ratio less than 1.0) for all links along the route, the link evacuation speeds are used to compute link travel time, and the travel times for each link along the path are summed to obtain the traffic zone-to-Sector boundary roadway travel time for the route.

When the total demand volume exceeds the hourly evacuation capacity (V/C ratio greater than 1.0) along any link of a traffic zone's evacuation route, the roadway travel time is represented by the maximum link delay time incurred along the route. Link delay time is calculated as the volume/capacity ratio in hours for each link along the route.

The link with the maximum V/C ratio is identified as the bottleneck link for the evacuation route for use in future planning. Other links along the route where the V/C ratio exceeds 1.0 are also identified for planning purposes.

The roadway travel time as determined above is added to the terminal time and the free-flow travel time for each zone trip type to determine the total roadway evacuation travel time. The total roadway evacuation travel time resulting from this analysis represents the time for the last vehicle in the zone to clear the Sector.

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' for the static assignment process provides five basic repods hi h evacuation planning process. The reports are escribed below:

a. Summary of link statistics: link number, description, length, free-flow speed an time, vehicular demand volume, evacuation capac'".y d volume/capacity ratio.

b. Summary of traffic zone statistics: number of trips, evacuation route, estination, terminal time, free-flow travel time, roadway travel time, total evacuation time, and bottleneck link; for each trip e sorted i type,so e inascending by total evacuation time. 'rder C. Summary of all bottleneck links and the traffic zones which are routed over

d. Summary of all destinations and the estimated number of vehicles e ices(y (b

iy'pe) and passengers assigned to each.

e. Distribution of the percent of the total population evacuated as a function of C. Com arison of St t'ic and D namic Traffic Assi nment Processes Because of the importance of the assi nment estimate eva t'o t I ti d it as decided to ~~al~~t~ the ~tati~ traffic assignmen c 'h p 'mated nning process. Travel times estimated by the static by a state-of-the-art dynamic traffic The dynamic assianment model used in the comparative analysis is an offspring comput d 'o pro o

mb tte ie Th mod t ffi o Traffic flow representation changes hli ki th es wi tw with time to reflect re ect changes chan es in demand and roadway in e ne ork is constraned by roadway i es, an ot er vehicles present on the roadway.

Various types of test routes were selecte Rockland and West h st Co ti requir m ts fo bo th odel r b y ical with one exception, which relates a ure o e ces entering the evacuation network, The static over time of vehicle trips feeding the network w not addressed ork was by the static model.

possible to input trip gene atio d t hi h led with time at each load point in the ase istri ution curve used in the corn processes was provided by the New ew Yorkor Sttate Off' of Disaster Preparedness.

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• The dynamic evacuation model, named DYNEV, was provided by KLD I

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Separate comparative analyses and evaluations of the static and dynamic model results were made using Level of Service D and Level of Service E evacuation capacities.

Table I-1 presents a comparison of the percent of total vehicles (in PCEs) evacuated for each route by time in the test network. The comparison was made between the static and dynamic assignment results when one or the other reached a time period when the total vehicles traveling the evacuation route had cleared the EPZ boundary. In all cases, the static assignment evacuation reached 100 percent completion either before or at the same time as the dynamic assignment evacuation. The percentages enclosed by parentheses in Table I-1 correspond to static and dynamic evacuation roadway travel times using Level of Service D capacities. Percentages without parentheses correspond to static and dynamic evacuation roadway travel times estimated using Level of Service E capacities.

Examination of Table I-1 shows a 97 percent correlation between the two assignment model results on an aggregate basis for the sample Indian Point roadway network east of the Hudson River in Westchester County. That is, at the time that the static assignment estimated complete evacuation of vehicles beyond the EPZ, the dynamic assignment estimated 97 percent of the vehicles would have cleared the EPZ.

On the west side of the Hudson River near Indian Point, where both Levels of Service E and D were analyzed by both models, the two model results were 99 percent and 98 percent, respectively. Overall, for the entire test evacuation network, comparison of the static and Qynamic assignment results at Level of Service E indicated a 99 percent correlation.. In other words, when the static model estimated the network would be cleared (total vehicle evacuation), the dynamic model estimated 99 percent of the vehicles would have cleared the EPZ boundary. The dynamic assignment results indicated that complete evacuation of all vehicles beyond the EPZ boundary would occur; 15 minutes later than the static assignment estimate at Level of Service E.

In addition to the evacuation times generated by each assignment technique, the location of bottlenecks by each methodology was compared. The critical bottleneck links identified by the static model were identified in the dynamic assignment results The dynamic assignment produced the percent. of vehicles topped at each link as'ell.

during the evacuation. This statistic was used as a measure of the congestion level on each link. For the identified bottleneck links, the average percentage of stops as indicated by the dynamic mode output was roughly 45 percent higher than on non-critical links, indicating that an increase in congestion was appropriately simulated by the static model on the critical links.

D. Conclusions The results of the comparative analysis presented in this Appendix indicate that the static traffic'assignment model can be applied to highway networks to estimate evacuation roadway travel times with a high degree of confidence.

Under almost identical circumstances, the static assignment model results have proven comparable with those pioduced by a state-of-the art, complex dynamic assignment model, which simulates the evacuation process within the framework of time.

Roadway travel times were estimated and congested roadways identified with a high degree of correlation using the less complex static assignment methodology. A close correlation between assignment procedures exists for varying roadway types, weather conditions, and loading characteristics. Thus the use of the static assignment model to estimate evacuation travel times in the JAF/NMP EPZ is appropriate.

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TABLE OF STATIC AND DYNAMICASSIGNMENT RESULTS I-1'OMPARISON Total Vehicles Traffic Percent of Total Vehicles Evacuated During the Following Time Using 0:45 1:45 2:00 2:15 2:30 2:45 3:00 3:15 3:30 3:45 4:15 4:30 5:30 5:45 6:00 6:15 7:15 Period'ssignment Evacuation Route Evacuation Route Methodology 1:00 2:00 2:15 2:30 2:45 3:00 3:15 3:30 3:45 4:00 4:30 4:45 5:45 6:00 6:15 6:30 7:30 East of River (Westchester County) Route 6 4,360 Static 100 Dynamic 84 100 Route 120 Static 100 Dynamic 33 100 Route 9A 8,690 Static 100 Dynamic 100 Taconic Parkway 5 155 Static 1 00 Dynamic 92 100 Amawalk Road 2,575 Sla tlc 100 Dynamic 89 100 Total East Routes 20,785 Static 100 Dynamic 97 100 West of River (Rockland County) Palisades Parkway 8,655 Static 100 (100) Dynamic 97 100 (97) (100) Route 9W 3,850 Static 100 ' (100) Dynamic 99 100 (87) (100) Route 303 3,310 Static 100 (100) Dynamic 98 (90) 100 (100) Route 45 1,920 Static 100 (100) Dynamic 98 100 (100) Little Tor Road ' 3,025 Static 100 '100)

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Route 304 3,655 Static 100 (100) Dynamic 99 100 (100) Total West Routes 24,415 Static 100 (100) Dynamic 99 100 (98) (100) Total Network Routes 45,200 Static 100 . Dynamic 99 100 'ote: Numbers enclosed by parentheses represent the percent of total vehicles along a route evacuated during the time period using Level of Service D capacities. Numbers not enclosed by parentheses represent the percent of total vehicles along a route evacuated during the time period using Level of Service E capacities. 0( ~

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