ML11138A167
| ML11138A167 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 12/18/2009 |
| From: | Sandia |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Sandia |
| References | |
| Download: ML11138A167 (7) | |
Text
IPRenewal NPEmails From: Schelling Jr, Joe [fjschel@sandia.gov]
Sent: Friday, December 18, 2009 12:33 PM To: Jones, Joe A Cc: Bixler, Nathan E
Subject:
RE: IP Population Estimate Attachments: SECPOP 2000 for Indian Point-Rev1.doc I'll give it a shot. Also, please replace the version I just sent you with the attached. We're only talkin 28 counties, not the 50 mentioned in the first one.
ones, Joe A iday, December 18, 2009 10:21 AM elling Jr, Joe RE: IP Population Estimate Joe, Can you integrate this into the draft I sent you and track changes.
Thanks, Joe chelling Jr, Joe iday, December 18, 2009 10:16 AM es, Joe A er, Nathan E IP Population Estimate Joe, Here's an updated discussion of the Indian Point population in 2035. The annual growth rate based on 2000-2008 Census data for Northeast US is 0.00290; for the 50 counties within 50 miles of IP, the annual growth rate is 0.004097.
These are +3.31% larger and 0.81% smaller than the total used by Entergy. I don't discuss it, but we probably account for the fraction of each county within the 50-mile radius in a similar manner, but Entergy also adds a transient population.
Entergy also gets their population data from the individual states rather than using US Census data. I've also included an image to show the relationship of the SECPOP coordinate location relative to the two reactor buildings. Please let me know if you have any comments or questions. Thanks. Joe
<< File: SECPOP 2000 for Indian Point-Rev1.doc >>
1
Hearing Identifier: IndianPointUnits2and3NonPublic_EX Email Number: 2473 Mail Envelope Properties (30E0C5690865734DABA83B42297BC73A87FEB6E32D)
Subject:
RE: IP Population Estimate Sent Date: 12/18/2009 12:32:48 PM Received Date: 12/18/2009 12:32:50 PM From: Schelling Jr, Joe Created By: fjschel@sandia.gov Recipients:
"Bixler, Nathan E" <nbixler@sandia.gov>
Tracking Status: None "Jones, Joe A" <jojones@sandia.gov>
Tracking Status: None Post Office: ES03SNLNT.srn.sandia.gov Files Size Date & Time MESSAGE 1516 12/18/2009 12:32:50 PM SECPOP 2000 for Indian Point-Rev1.doc 571456 Options Priority: Standard Return Notification: No Reply Requested: No Sensitivity: Normal Expiration Date:
Recipients Received:
Estimated 2035 Population Within 50 Miles of Indian Point Energy Center Version 3.12.01 of SECPOP2000 - Sector Population and Economic Estimator, June 20, 2003, was used with US Census data to prepare two estimates of the population distribution in 2035 within 50 miles of Indian Point Energy Center for comparison with data provided by Entergy in the siteiec.inp MACCS2 input file. The first estimate was based on annual growth rates developed from 2000-2008 Census data for the Northeast US geographic region, and the second estimate developed from Census data over the same period for the 28 counties lying at least partially within 50 miles of Indian Point.
The location of the SECPOP 2000 coordinates for Indian Point (41 16 17 Lat, 73 57 9 Long) were first verified by comparison to the Indian Point facility layout using Google Earth, as shown in Figure 1. The yellow pushpin represents the SECPOP coordinates, and the two reactor containment buildings highlighted, with Unit #2 within approximately 350 and Unit #2 within approximately 820 of the location used with SECPOP.
Figure 1. Google Earth image of Indian Point Energy Center US Census data from July 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 was used to define an annual growth rate for the Northeast USA geographic area (http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html),
which was then used to define a SECPOP multiplier for estimating the population within 50 miles of Indian Point in 2035.
12/18/2009 Page 1 of 5
Annual Growth Rate = exp{Ln(2008 Population/2000 Population)/8} - 1
= exp{Ln[(54,924,779/53,666,821)/8} - 1
= exp{Ln(1.02344)/8} - 1 = 0.00290 Growth from 2000 to 2035 = (1 + Annual Growth Rate)35
= (1.00290)35 = 1.1067 Similarly, US Census data for the same July 1, 200 to July 1, 2008 for the 28 counties in Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania that are within 50 miles of Indian Point (http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2008-01.html) was used to define a SECPOP multiplier for estimating the population within 50 miles of Indian Point in 2035.
Annual Growth Rate = exp{Ln(2008 Population/2000 Population)/8} - 1
= exp{Ln[(20,635,344/19,971,294)/8} - 1
= exp{Ln(1.03325)/8} - 1 = 0.004097 Growth from 2000 to 2035 = (1 + Annual Growth Rate)35
= (1.00497)35 = 1.1538 In comparison with the Indian Point population of 19,228,712 supplied by Entergy, SECPOP2005 estimated 18,591,824 using the 1.1067 multiplier based on the Northeast USA area and 19,384,364 using the 1.1538 multiplier based on the 28 counties. Differences of
+636,888 (3.31%) and -155,652 (0.81%) relative to Entergys value, respectively, are observed.
Table 1 shows the population input data provided by Entergy in the siteiec.inp MACCS2 input file (totals have been added in the final column and last row). Table 2 shows the distribution of population in 2035 using the 1.1067 multiplier based on growth of the Northeast US population, and Table 3 the distribution using the 1.1538 multiplier based on the 28 counties within 50 miles of Indian Point.
Rosette charts generated by SECPOP 2000 for these two alternatives are shown in Figures 2 and 3.
Figure 2. 2035 Population Distribution Figure 3. 2035 Population Distribution Using Population Multiplier Based on Using Population Multiplier Based on Northeast US Population Growth. Growth of 28 Counties Within 50 Miles of Indian Point.
12/18/2009 Page 2 of 5
Table 1. ENTERGY siteiec.inp Population Radii(k 0.321 1.609 3.218 6.437 8.046 9.656 11.265 12.874 14.484 16.093 m) 9 3 7 4.828 4 7 1 4 8 1 5 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674 Sum N 6 0 271 2,059 2,501 909 931 1,223 1,389 1,503 1,696 22,955 30,654 39,620 51,057 156,774 NNE 16 7 170 1,943 2,912 2,051 1,177 1,388 1,577 1,798 1,913 28,140 39,917 56,226 67,213 206,448 NE 17 193 883 2,131 2,964 3,843 3,910 3,059 2,464 1,998 1,915 29,419 53,692 62,559 41,261 210,308 ENE 17 364 1,275 2,132 2,977 3,453 4,507 5,282 6,140 6,960 7,279 74,856 119,073 152,175 176,338 562,828 E 17 390 1,218 2,138 2,934 3,792 4,424 5,513 5,587 7,201 8,076 118,335 156,720 200,581 208,394 725,320 ESE 17 409 1,256 2,136 2,970 3,592 3,698 3,857 5,734 6,783 7,409 121,515 144,267 54,180 34,361 392,184 SE 17 410 1,274 2,138 2,872 3,808 4,537 5,279 6,284 7,194 8,060 111,946 87,735 236,426 379,990 857,970 1,380,24 1,218,17 SSE 17 360 1,268 1,645 882 495 15 1,442 948 1,911 3,214 98,326 481,703 9 0 3,190,645 1,164,59 3,732,33 3,164,30 S 17 400 701 246 124 620 1,538 3,253 4,129 4,455 5,138 135,211 6 9 6 8,217,073 1,034,46 SSW 17 377 562 500 1,700 2,882 3,544 4,187 4,873 5,517 6,159 202,605 395,389 922,649 7 2,585,428 SW 17 217 187 1,566 2,274 2,916 3,574 4,188 4,361 5,358 6,138 183,372 276,902 197,362 246,076 934,508 WSW 9 0 620 1,623 2,197 2,924 3,550 4,014 4,196 4,255 4,335 64,428 209,197 109,102 85,849 496,299 W 3 0 855 1,602 2,267 2,815 2,368 1,787 1,423 1,775 2,030 32,026 50,974 61,380 57,384 218,689 WNW 2 0 938 1,624 2,245 1,341 1,135 1,419 1,505 1,756 2,071 32,528 54,577 57,977 29,719 188,837 NW 2 45 974 1,589 1,933 972 1,140 1,351 1,541 1,781 2,093 32,572 54,557 24,046 22,317 146,913 NNW 3 50 809 1,051 1,587 740 1,204 1,407 1,620 1,787 2,028 31,660 32,569 27,599 34,374 138,488 13,26 26,12 35,33 37,15 41,25 1,319,89 3,352,52 7,314,47 6,851,27 19,228,71 Sum 194 3,222 1 3 9 3 2 48,649 53,771 62,032 69,554 4 2 0 6 2 12/18/2009 Page 3 of 5
Table 2. 2035 Population Estimate Using 1.1067 Population Multiplier Based on Northeast US Population Growth Radii(km 0.321 1.609 3.218 6.437 8.046 9.656 11.265 12.874 14.484 16.093 32.186
) 9 3 7 4.828 4 7 1 4 8 1 5 9 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674 Sum N 0 0 12 121 36 347 411 2,336 1,562 8,169 497 56,295 98,801 68,465 68,870 305,922 NNE 0 0 0 266 756 1,824 774 673 620 935 733 9,012 55,041 21,142 12,654 104,430 NE 0 0 2,793 8,700 3,486 3,033 4,286 3,683 1,618 1,452 2,055 28,649 26,387 38,547 14,553 139,242 ENE 0 19 2,676 4,683 5,372 1,669 4,106 3,184 5,239 8,507 5,834 45,431 124,517 62,366 111,189 384,792 E 0 51 1,240 0 1,185 1,737 888 1,518 837 3,915 3,819 25,681 52,973 203,344 292,032 589,220 ESE 0 138 202 812 708 1,016 120 595 952 545 1,577 35,309 175,845 106,756 27,470 352,045 SE 0 398 1,367 995 3,278 924 4,793 3,428 3,002 8,691 7,308 60,156 170,272 96,290 579,958 940,860 152,48 1,348,63 SSE 0 161 1,668 1,595 389 242 0 100 0 4,878 11,881 0 528,640 854,954 1 2,905,619 101,28 1,459,26 4,236,61 2,917,14 S 0 103 696 34 0 636 6,934 1,263 4,256 8,372 9,313 8 6 2 9 8,745,922 12,00 196,67 SSW 0 73 537 695 3,638 1 7,409 3,184 4,627 6,656 11,434 6 680,363 953,138 930,976 2,811,407 SW 0 0 17 1,940 2,919 3,565 1,239 4,487 3,482 1,535 2,716 65,819 135,447 167,188 220,858 611,212 WSW 0 0 518 539 50 342 147 53 148 0 5 10,665 36,035 51,678 92,777 192,957 W 0 0 347 122 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 19,671 29,796 37,929 19,283 107,180 WNW 0 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 9 260 2,141 53,239 66,779 21,379 9,992 153,820 NW 0 0 0 66 0 125 0 0 0 10 1,348 22,134 27,386 24,519 25,353 100,941 NNW 0 0 0 0 60 1,073 655 6 0 0 0 70,972 35,175 25,799 12,515 146,255 12,07 20,58 21,87 28,53 31,76 953,47 3,702,72 6,970,10 6,684,26 18,591,82 Sum 0 943 3 9 7 4 2 24,510 26,352 53,925 60,693 7 3 6 0 4 12/18/2009 Page 4 of 5
Table 3. 2035 Population Estimate Using 1.1538 Population Multiplier Based on Growth of 28 Counties Within 50 Miles of Indian Point.
Radii(km 0.321 1.609 3.218 6.437 8.046 9.656 11.265 12.874 14.484 16.093 32.186
) 9 3 7 4.828 4 7 1 4 8 1 5 9 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674 Sum N 0 0 13 126 38 362 430 2,436 1,628 8,518 520 58,715 103,006 71,369 71,798 318,959 NNE 0 0 0 277 789 1,901 810 702 647 976 763 9,390 57,384 22,034 13,199 108,872 NE 0 0 2,910 9,070 3,632 3,162 4,466 3,843 1,686 1,513 2,141 29,873 27,513 40,175 15,168 145,152 ENE 0 20 2,789 4,876 5,605 1,738 4,276 3,323 5,461 8,865 6,084 47,376 129,803 65,023 115,939 401,178 E 0 52 1,293 0 1,237 1,812 927 1,584 873 4,080 3,979 26,768 55,235 212,032 304,487 614,359 ESE 0 144 211 847 740 1,059 124 621 992 570 1,646 36,815 183,345 111,302 28,631 367,047 SE 0 416 1,424 1,038 3,417 962 4,999 3,574 3,132 9,070 7,625 62,740 177,516 100,390 604,652 980,955 159,00 1,406,08 SSE 0 167 1,739 1,665 407 252 0 104 0 5,089 12,386 2 551,215 891,369 8 3,029,483 105,62 1,521,51 4,417,10 3,041,56 S 0 107 725 36 0 663 7,229 1,317 4,442 8,731 9,703 7 7 4 7 9,118,768 12,51 205,06 SSW 0 76 559 723 3,789 0 7,724 3,322 4,826 6,932 11,921 4 709,324 993,786 970,679 2,931,235 SW 0 0 17 2,025 3,045 3,715 1,291 4,678 3,628 1,600 2,833 68,655 141,243 174,315 230,287 637,332 WSW 0 0 538 563 52 358 153 55 155 0 6 11,119 37,575 53,881 96,719 201,174 W 0 0 363 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 20,509 31,051 39,538 20,123 111,745 WNW 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 0 9 272 2,232 55,505 69,626 22,308 10,420 160,394 NW 0 0 0 69 0 131 0 0 0 10 1,409 23,087 28,535 25,558 26,430 105,229 NNW 0 0 0 0 62 1,117 683 6 0 0 0 73,996 36,676 26,903 13,039 152,482 12,58 21,46 22,81 29,74 33,11 994,24 3,860,56 7,267,08 6,969,22 19,384,36 Sum 0 982 1 5 3 2 2 25,565 27,479 56,226 63,281 1 4 7 6 4 12/18/2009 Page 5 of 5