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September 19, 2017 COMMON CAUSE FAILURE METHODS IMPACTING SDP EVALUATIONS Greg Krueger Senior Technical Advisor Jim Slider Senior Project Manager
SITUATION *PROBLEM: NRC's current quantitative
-focused approach to the treatment of Common Cause Failure (CCF) in event/condition assessment is not aligned with PRA best practices for risk
-informing key technical decisions
- CONSEQUENCES: Misalignment leads to resource
-intensive debate with licensees when NRC treatment of CCF drives an SDP result or disincentivizes behaviors helpful to safety
Gaining alignment on how to risk
-inform CCF insights in an event/condition assessment would boost confidence in, and clarity of, SDP outcomes 2
TODAY'S TOPICS 1.CCF considerations for event/condition evaluations 2.Consideration of a quantitative sensitivity method to support a structured evaluation of CCF 3.Potential development/enhancement of guidance associated with qualitative CCF considerations in event/condition assessment 3
MEETING GOALS
- Illustrate the potential to streamline the use of industry and NRC resources applied during SDPs
- Discuss approaches to assess the impact of levels of defense against CCF
- Discuss development and use of additional qualitative CCF guidance for SDP purposes 4
CCF CONSIDERATIONS FOR EVENT/CONDITION EVALUATION
- CCF can be a significant contributor for event/condition applications typically associated with SDP evaluations
- The application of common cause in SDP evaluations involving multi
-train systems should reflect a plant
-specific assessment of CCF defenses
- Limitations of the NRC's current CCF database can drive an overestimation of the CCF impact in an event/condition evaluation 5
0.00E+005.00E-071.00E-061.50E-062.00E-062.50E-063.00E-06 1 5 10 20 50100233Delta CDF Factor Increase in CCF Current RASP CCF Treatment if no additional information is available on extent of condition/cause is known Nominal CCF Treatment if robust CCF defenses in place and extent of condition/cause is known Green/White Threshold QUANTITATIVE CCF RESULTS 6 Draft NUREG
- "- the alpha
-factor estimates are not plant-specific, and estimates do not reflect plant-to-plant variability
BENEFITS OF CONSIDERING CCF SENSITIVITIES
- A sensitivity approach highlights how much a quantitative CCF contributor drives the conclusion of significance Illustrating the sensitivities in a graphical manner highlights the magnitude the CCF data may have on the decision
-making process
- The impact of known causal factors or specific conditions can be qualitatively applied when a range of results are presented
- The sensitivity approach improves understanding of the relationship between the CCF data used and the event/condition evaluation 7
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RESULTS WHEN CCF IS APPLIED
- Overestimating CCF risk significance can cause undue effort for both the utility and NRC that may not be commensurate with safety significance of the issue
- Applying full conditional causal factors which do not reflect the proximate cause and plant
-specific differences may overestimate the risk associated with an event/condition 8
EXAMPLES OF QUALITATIVE ELEMENTS FOR IMPROVED RISK
-INFORMED DECISION
-MAKING ON CCF *Consideration of just-in-time training and technical human performance briefs
- Oversight and observations by others
- Use of subject matter experts
- Original equipment manufacturer consultation
- Quality Assurance modification inspections
- Procedure impacts *Evidence of individual errors 9
EXAMPLES OF QUALITATIVE ELEMENTS FOR IMPROVED RISK
-INFORMED DECISION-MAKING ON CCF (CONT.) *Passive failure modes
- State of knowledge of actual similar CCF events
- Discussion of time of the subsequent failure relative to the original failure Time needed for failure to manifest itself 10
SUMMARY
- Consideration of CCF for event/condition assessment in a risk
-informed context is needed to streamline NRC and industry resources applied during SDP evaluations
- Application of quantitative CCF sensitivities can be accomplished using existing models and methods and provide insight of CCF impact on SDP decision
-making *A defined set of qualitative factors allows for a graded approach that more accurately represents the condition or event being evaluated. They will also provide a roadmap of pre
-emptive industry defenses to limit the potential for common cause 11 POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS 1.Work to develop a set of qualitative factors that could be used as prompts during the SDP decision
-making process 2.Develop simple criteria that could be used to guide the quantitative sensitivity process 12 NEI Contacts:
Greg Krueger, gak@nei.org Jim Slider, jes@nei.org