ML11117A964

2009/12/17 Indian Point Lr Hearing - Emailing: NationalPopulationProjection2008-t1.xls, StatePopulationProjections2008-01.xls

ML11117A964
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	12/17/2009
From:	Sandia
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Sandia
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Download: ML11117A964 (12)

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IPRenewal NPEmails From: Bixler, Nathan E [nbixler@sandia.gov]

Sent: Thursday, December 17, 2009 1:06 PM To: Schelling Jr, Joe Cc: Jones, Joe A

Subject:

Emailing: NationalPopulationProjection2008-t1.xls, StatePopulationProjections2008-01.xls Attachments: NationalPopulationProjection2008-t1.xls; StatePopulationProjections2008-01.xls I'm attaching two spreadsheets that I downloaded from the US Census Bureau web site. The first gives national population projections out to 2050. The second gives state population projections out to 2008.

Comparing US and NY data, it is clear that NY population is growing a lot slower than the national average. We may need to strategize on how to deal with this. Simply applying USwide census growth projections (about 0.9%/yr) to the area around Indian Point gives something like a 35% growth between 2000 and 2035 compared with Indian Point's and your estimate of about 14%. The state of NY growth projection is much more modest. I haven't looked at the other states within the 50mile radius, but those should be factored in.

Nate 1

Hearing Identifier: IndianPointUnits2and3NonPublic_EX Email Number: 2421 Mail Envelope Properties (51677525E6912B4FA646302AD6D1D78C80F719BFAF)

Subject:

Emailing: NationalPopulationProjection2008-t1.xls, StatePopulationProjections2008-01.xls Sent Date: 12/17/2009 1:06:05 PM Received Date: 12/17/2009 1:06:05 PM From: Bixler, Nathan E Created By: nbixler@sandia.gov Recipients:

"Jones, Joe A" <jojones@sandia.gov>

Tracking Status: None "Schelling Jr, Joe" <fjschel@sandia.gov>

Tracking Status: None Post Office: ES03SNLNT.srn.sandia.gov Files Size Date & Time MESSAGE 744 12/17/2009 1:06:05 PM NationalPopulationProjection2008-t1.xls 20544 StatePopulationProjections2008-01.xls 23616 Options Priority: Standard Return Notification: No Reply Requested: No Sensitivity: Normal Expiration Date:

Recipients Received:

table with row headers in column A and column headers in rows 4 through 5 (leading dots indicate sub-parts)

Table 1. Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to 2050 (Resident population as of July 1. Numbers in thousands)

Net Natural Vital Events Year Population Numeric Change Percent Change International Increase Births Deaths Migration1 2010 310,233 3,021 0.98 1,682 4,268 2,586 1,338 2011 313,232 2,999 0.97 1,699 4,311 2,611 1,300 2012 316,266 3,033 0.97 1,714 4,351 2,636 1,319 2013 319,330 3,065 0.97 1,726 4,388 2,662 1,338 2014 322,423 3,093 0.97 1,735 4,423 2,688 1,358 2015 325,540 3,117 0.97 1,740 4,455 2,715 1,377 2016 328,678 3,138 0.96 1,742 4,484 2,743 1,396 2017 331,833 3,156 0.96 1,741 4,512 2,772 1,415 2018 335,005 3,172 0.96 1,737 4,539 2,802 1,434 2019 338,190 3,185 0.95 1,732 4,565 2,834 1,454 2020 341,387 3,196 0.95 1,723 4,590 2,867 1,473 2021 344,592 3,205 0.94 1,713 4,615 2,902 1,492 2022 347,803 3,211 0.93 1,700 4,639 2,939 1,511 2023 351,018 3,215 0.92 1,685 4,663 2,978 1,530 2024 354,235 3,217 0.92 1,667 4,687 3,020 1,549 2025 357,452 3,217 0.91 1,648 4,712 3,064 1,569 2026 360,667 3,215 0.90 1,628 4,738 3,110 1,588 2027 363,880 3,213 0.89 1,606 4,765 3,158 1,607 2028 367,090 3,210 0.88 1,584 4,794 3,209 1,626 2029 370,298 3,208 0.87 1,563 4,825 3,262 1,645 2030 373,504 3,206 0.87 1,542 4,858 3,316 1,664 2031 376,708 3,204 0.86 1,521 4,893 3,372 1,683 2032 379,912 3,204 0.85 1,502 4,931 3,429 1,702 2033 383,117 3,204 0.84 1,483 4,970 3,487 1,722 2034 386,323 3,206 0.84 1,465 5,011 3,545 1,741 2035 389,531 3,209 0.83 1,449 5,052 3,604 1,760 2036 392,743 3,212 0.82 1,433 5,095 3,661 1,779 2037 395,961 3,217 0.82 1,419 5,138 3,718 1,798 2038 399,184 3,223 0.81 1,406 5,180 3,774 1,817 2039 402,415 3,231 0.81 1,395 5,223 3,828 1,836 2040 405,655 3,240 0.81 1,385 5,265 3,881 1,855 2041 408,906 3,251 0.80 1,376 5,307 3,931 1,875 2042 412,170 3,264 0.80 1,370 5,348 3,978 1,894 2043 415,448 3,278 0.80 1,365 5,388 4,023 1,913 2044 418,743 3,295 0.79 1,364 5,428 4,064 1,932 2045 422,059 3,315 0.79 1,364 5,467 4,103 1,951 2046 425,395 3,337 0.79 1,367 5,505 4,138 1,970 2047 428,756 3,360 0.79 1,371 5,542 4,171 1,989 2048 432,143 3,387 0.79 1,379 5,579 4,201 2,008 2049 435,560 3,417 0.79 1,390 5,616 4,226 2,028 2050 439,010 3,450 0.79 1,403 5,653 4,249 2,047 Footnotes:

1 Net international migration includes the international migration of both native and foreign-born populations. Specifically, it includes: (a) the net international migration of the foreign born, (b) the net international migration of the native born, (c) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas.

Note: Data on population change and components of change refer to events occurring between July 1 of the preceding year and June 30 of the indicated year.

Suggested Citation:

Table 1. Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to 2050 (NP2008-T1)

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau Release Date: August 14, 2008

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 Population Estimates Geographic Area July 1, 2008 July 1, 2007 July 1, 2006 July 1, 2005 July 1, 2004 July 1, 2003 July 1, 2002 July 1, 2001 United States 304,059,724 301,290,332 298,362,973 295,560,549 292,892,127 290,210,914 287,726,647 285,039,803 Northeast 54,924,779 54,761,693 54,627,987 54,531,266 54,459,795 54,319,451 54,134,361 53,910,648 Midwest 66,561,448 66,312,562 66,047,830 65,785,263 65,566,340 65,299,248 65,058,431 64,805,832 South 111,718,549 110,335,133 108,716,622 107,244,182 105,745,280 104,339,107 103,125,430 101,838,852 West 70,854,948 69,880,944 68,970,534 67,999,838 67,120,712 66,253,108 65,408,425 64,484,471

.Alabama 4,661,900 4,626,595 4,587,564 4,537,299 4,506,574 4,486,598 4,469,906 4,462,832

.Alaska 686,293 681,111 676,301 668,625 660,975 650,426 642,391 633,160

.Arizona 6,500,180 6,353,421 6,178,251 5,961,239 5,750,475 5,585,512 5,449,195 5,303,632

.Arkansas 2,855,390 2,830,557 2,804,199 2,768,918 2,740,191 2,717,909 2,701,889 2,689,601

.California 36,756,666 36,377,534 36,121,296 35,885,415 35,629,666 35,307,398 34,916,495 34,507,030

.Colorado 4,939,456 4,842,770 4,751,474 4,662,734 4,600,050 4,548,339 4,503,156 4,431,918

.Connecticut 3,501,252 3,489,868 3,487,896 3,478,714 3,475,351 3,467,932 3,448,261 3,428,208

.Delaware 873,092 861,953 850,366 838,519 825,682 814,262 803,774 794,498

.District of Columbia 591,833 587,868 585,419 582,049 579,521 577,371 579,112 577,678

.Florida 18,328,340 18,199,526 18,019,093 17,702,476 17,313,811 16,937,337 16,652,679 16,340,734

.Georgia 9,685,744 9,523,297 9,318,715 9,093,958 8,910,741 8,732,924 8,583,674 8,418,592

.Hawaii 1,288,198 1,277,356 1,275,264 1,264,468 1,251,532 1,238,333 1,227,391 1,217,955

.Idaho 1,523,816 1,496,145 1,461,183 1,424,127 1,390,329 1,363,010 1,341,408 1,320,732

.Illinois 12,901,563 12,825,809 12,759,673 12,704,063 12,665,718 12,611,047 12,565,228 12,510,596

.Indiana 6,376,792 6,335,862 6,294,124 6,248,569 6,210,801 6,178,828 6,146,974 6,123,942

.Iowa 3,002,555 2,983,360 2,967,270 2,951,775 2,942,739 2,933,407 2,929,395 2,929,294

.Kansas 2,802,134 2,777,382 2,756,267 2,742,204 2,731,069 2,722,070 2,712,561 2,701,346

.Kentucky 4,269,245 4,236,308 4,199,440 4,165,958 4,135,567 4,110,922 4,086,754 4,066,442

.Louisiana 4,410,796 4,373,310 4,243,634 4,495,627 4,487,830 4,473,558 4,465,215 4,460,395

.Maine 1,316,456 1,315,398 1,313,355 1,311,044 1,307,904 1,302,729 1,293,667 1,284,663

.Maryland 5,633,597 5,618,899 5,602,258 5,575,552 5,538,989 5,495,009 5,439,327 5,375,659

.Massachusetts 6,497,967 6,467,915 6,443,424 6,434,343 6,437,414 6,441,440 6,433,043 6,407,269

.Michigan 10,003,422 10,049,790 10,083,878 10,093,266 10,090,280 10,065,881 10,037,303 10,004,341

.Minnesota 5,220,393 5,182,360 5,143,134 5,104,890 5,078,014 5,046,708 5,016,643 4,982,339

.Mississippi 2,938,618 2,921,030 2,896,713 2,898,209 2,884,596 2,866,711 2,858,013 2,853,061

.Missouri 5,911,605 5,878,399 5,832,977 5,785,130 5,742,650 5,704,639 5,675,641 5,641,994

.Montana 967,440 956,624 945,428 934,888 925,969 916,754 909,859 905,854

.Nebraska 1,783,432 1,769,473 1,759,779 1,751,069 1,741,450 1,732,873 1,724,236 1,717,705

.Nevada 2,600,167 2,554,344 2,484,196 2,401,671 2,323,875 2,233,830 2,164,518 2,093,973

.New Hampshire 1,315,809 1,312,256 1,308,824 1,300,530 1,292,064 1,281,260 1,270,701 1,256,625 Page 1

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 Population Estimates Geographic Area July 1, 2008 July 1, 2007 July 1, 2006 July 1, 2005 July 1, 2004 July 1, 2003 July 1, 2002 July 1, 2001

.New Jersey 8,682,661 8,653,126 8,640,218 8,634,657 8,620,770 8,589,562 8,547,410 8,490,942

.New Mexico 1,984,356 1,964,402 1,937,916 1,912,884 1,889,266 1,867,909 1,848,986 1,828,330

.New York 19,490,297 19,429,316 19,367,028 19,336,376 19,301,113 19,230,877 19,161,573 19,088,220

.North Carolina 9,222,414 9,041,594 8,845,343 8,661,061 8,523,199 8,409,660 8,311,263 8,199,913

.North Dakota 641,481 637,904 636,453 635,222 636,196 632,689 633,521 636,211

.Ohio 11,485,910 11,477,641 11,458,390 11,450,954 11,445,095 11,430,306 11,410,582 11,391,298

.Oklahoma 3,642,361 3,608,123 3,568,132 3,530,087 3,511,960 3,496,157 3,482,946 3,463,387

.Oregon 3,790,060 3,735,549 3,680,968 3,621,939 3,576,262 3,551,877 3,517,982 3,470,716

.Pennsylvania 12,448,279 12,419,930 12,388,055 12,351,881 12,335,652 12,317,647 12,298,775 12,284,522

.Rhode Island 1,050,788 1,053,136 1,058,991 1,064,439 1,071,095 1,071,302 1,065,937 1,058,065

.South Carolina 4,479,800 4,404,914 4,324,799 4,249,385 4,196,799 4,143,420 4,102,211 4,061,844

.South Dakota 804,194 795,689 787,380 779,315 773,539 766,440 761,709 758,705

.Tennessee 6,214,888 6,149,116 6,068,306 5,983,211 5,906,936 5,849,563 5,799,093 5,753,497

.Texas 24,326,974 23,843,432 23,367,534 22,811,128 22,424,884 22,062,119 21,713,397 21,333,928

.Utah 2,736,424 2,668,925 2,585,155 2,501,262 2,439,852 2,380,462 2,334,462 2,291,066

.Vermont 621,270 620,748 620,196 619,282 618,432 616,702 614,994 612,134

.Virginia 7,769,089 7,698,775 7,628,347 7,546,725 7,454,688 7,363,300 7,276,785 7,188,251

.Washington 6,549,224 6,449,511 6,360,529 6,254,579 6,179,645 6,110,202 6,055,613 5,987,181

.West Virginia 1,814,468 1,809,836 1,806,760 1,804,020 1,803,312 1,802,287 1,799,392 1,798,540

.Wisconsin 5,627,967 5,598,893 5,568,505 5,538,806 5,508,789 5,474,360 5,444,638 5,408,061

.Wyoming 532,668 523,252 512,573 506,007 502,816 499,056 496,969 492,924 Puerto Rico 3,954,037 3,941,160 3,926,698 3,910,707 3,893,931 3,876,637 3,858,272 3,837,768 Note: The April 1, 2000 Population Estimates base reflects changes to the Census 2000 population from the Count Question Resolution program and geographic program revisions. See Geographic Terms and Definitions at http://www.census.gov/popest/geographi c/ for a list of the states that are included in each region.

Page 2

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 Population Estimates Geographic Area July 1, 2008 July 1, 2007 July 1, 2006 July 1, 2005 July 1, 2004 July 1, 2003 July 1, 2002 July 1, 2001 Suggested Citation:

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 (NST-EST2008-01)

Source: Population Division, U.S.

Census Bureau Release Date: December 22, 2008 Page 3

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 Geographic Area July 1, 2000 United States 282,171,936 Northeast 53,666,821 Midwest 64,492,694 South 100,558,339 West 63,454,082

.Alabama 4,451,687

.Alaska 627,428

.Arizona 5,166,810

.Arkansas 2,678,217

.California 33,998,767

.Colorado 4,327,788

.Connecticut 3,411,714

.Delaware 786,404

.District of Columbia 571,723

.Florida 16,047,246

.Georgia 8,230,053

.Hawaii 1,211,479

.Idaho 1,299,474

.Illinois 12,437,888

.Indiana 6,091,392

.Iowa 2,928,046

.Kansas 2,692,681

.Kentucky 4,048,831

.Louisiana 4,468,879

.Maine 1,277,179

.Maryland 5,310,451

.Massachusetts 6,362,583

.Michigan 9,955,146

.Minnesota 4,933,787

.Mississippi 2,848,293

.Missouri 5,605,868

.Montana 903,283

.Nebraska 1,713,194

.Nevada 2,018,244

.New Hampshire 1,240,361 Page 4

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 Geographic Area July 1, 2000

.New Jersey 8,430,913

.New Mexico 1,820,704

.New York 18,998,429

.North Carolina 8,078,824

.North Dakota 641,183

.Ohio 11,363,719

.Oklahoma 3,453,861

.Oregon 3,430,828

.Pennsylvania 12,285,041

.Rhode Island 1,050,725

.South Carolina 4,023,396

.South Dakota 755,657

.Tennessee 5,703,094

.Texas 20,946,049

.Utah 2,244,210

.Vermont 609,876

.Virginia 7,104,354

.Washington 5,911,104

.West Virginia 1,806,977

.Wisconsin 5,374,133

.Wyoming 493,963 Puerto Rico 3,814,413 Note: The April 1, 2000 Population Estimates base reflects changes to the Census 2000 population from the Count Question Resolution program and geographic program revisions. See Geographic Terms and Definitions at http://www.census.gov/popest/geographi c/ for a list of the states that are included in each region.

Page 5

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 Geographic Area July 1, 2000 Suggested Citation:

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 (NST-EST2008-01)

Source: Population Division, U.S.

Census Bureau Release Date: December 22, 2008 Page 6

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 April 1, 2000 Geographic Area Estimates Census Base United States 281,424,602 281,421,906 Northeast 53,594,797 53,594,378 Midwest 64,395,207 64,392,776 South 100,235,848 100,236,820 West 63,198,750 63,197,932

.Alabama 4,447,355 4,447,100

.Alaska 626,931 626,932

.Arizona 5,130,607 5,130,632

.Arkansas 2,673,386 2,673,400

.California 33,871,650 33,871,648

.Colorado 4,302,015 4,301,261

.Connecticut 3,405,604 3,405,565

.Delaware 783,595 783,600

.District of Columbia 572,053 572,059

.Florida 15,982,813 15,982,378

.Georgia 8,186,812 8,186,453

.Hawaii 1,211,538 1,211,537

.Idaho 1,293,955 1,293,953

.Illinois 12,419,660 12,419,293

.Indiana 6,080,522 6,080,485

.Iowa 2,926,381 2,926,324

.Kansas 2,688,816 2,688,418

.Kentucky 4,042,284 4,041,769

.Louisiana 4,468,968 4,468,976

.Maine 1,274,922 1,274,923

.Maryland 5,296,516 5,296,486

.Massachusetts 6,349,113 6,349,097

.Michigan 9,938,492 9,938,444

.Minnesota 4,919,492 4,919,479

.Mississippi 2,844,666 2,844,658

.Missouri 5,596,678 5,595,211

.Montana 902,190 902,195

.Nebraska 1,711,266 1,711,263

.Nevada 1,998,257 1,998,257

.New Hampshire 1,235,785 1,235,786 Page 7

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 April 1, 2000 Geographic Area Estimates Census Base

.New Jersey 8,414,360 8,414,350

.New Mexico 1,819,041 1,819,046

.New York 18,976,816 18,976,457

.North Carolina 8,046,500 8,049,313

.North Dakota 642,195 642,200

.Ohio 11,353,160 11,353,140

.Oklahoma 3,450,640 3,450,654

.Oregon 3,421,437 3,421,399

.Pennsylvania 12,281,052 12,281,054

.Rhode Island 1,048,319 1,048,319

.South Carolina 4,011,809 4,012,012

.South Dakota 754,837 754,844

.Tennessee 5,689,270 5,689,283

.Texas 20,851,811 20,851,820

.Utah 2,233,204 2,233,169

.Vermont 608,826 608,827

.Virginia 7,079,025 7,078,515

.Washington 5,894,143 5,894,121

.West Virginia 1,808,345 1,808,344

.Wisconsin 5,363,708 5,363,675

.Wyoming 493,782 493,782 Puerto Rico 3,808,603 3,808,610 Note: The April 1, 2000 Population Estimates base reflects changes to the Census 2000 population from the Count Question Resolution program and geographic program revisions. See Geographic Terms and Definitions at http://www.census.gov/popest/geographi c/ for a list of the states that are included in each region.

Page 8

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 April 1, 2000 Geographic Area Estimates Census Base Suggested Citation:

Table 1: Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008 (NST-EST2008-01)

Source: Population Division, U.S.

Census Bureau Release Date: December 22, 2008 Page 9