RA-14-033, TR-629, Rev. 0, Oyster Creek Generating Station, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report. Page 8-1 Through Page D-5

TR-629, Rev. 0, Oyster Creek Generating Station, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report. Page 8-1 Through Page D-5

ML14101A177
Person / Time
Site:	Oyster Creek
Issue date:	03/20/2014
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Exelon Generation Co, NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
RA-14-033, TMI-14-048 TR-629, Rev 0
Download: ML14101A177 (93)

Text

8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles.

The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, preschools, day camps, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; and (3)homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:

• Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. It is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes for school buses and 120 minutes for transit dependent buses extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.

Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the OCGS EPZ indicates that public schoolchildren will be evacuated to host schools, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at the host schools. The public information indicates non-public (private) schools and day-care centers have their own emergency plans and parents should become familiar with these plans.As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency.

Therefore, children are evacuated to host schools. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.

This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.

This study assumes that private schools, preschools and day-care centers are also evacuated to host schools and parents will pick up these children at the host schools.Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:* Estimate demand for transit service* Estimate time to perform all transit functions* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the host schools and reception centers 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service based on the percentage of households with no vehicle available.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:* Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.

For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.

The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.

However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.[20+ (2.x 10)] -40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 1,115 people. Therefore, a total of 38 bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.Oyster Creek GeneratinR Station 8-2 KLD EngineerinR, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the OCGS EPZ: P = (EPZ Population

+ Average HH Size of EPZ) x % of HH with 0 Vehicles x Average HH Size of HH with 0 Vehicles P = (144,911 + 2.34) x 3.0% x 1.20 = 2,229 B = (0.5 x P) -30 = 38 According to the telephone survey results, there are 1.20 people per house -on average -in households with no vehicles available.

The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by NJSP (discussed below in Section 8.5). This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not register with their local emergency response agency.8.2 School Population

-Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school, pre-school and day camp population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all facilities within the EPZ for the 2012 school year.The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

• No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 55 for primary, middle and high schools.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.It is recommended that the state of New Jersey introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot, to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated.

In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).

Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Table 8-3 presents a list of the host schools for each school and preschool in the EPZ. Students will be transported to these schools where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 8.3 Medical Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. A total of 1,175 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.

The current census for each facility was provided by Exelon. This data includes the number of ambulatory and non-ambulatory patients at each facility.The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of medical ambulance bus (MAB) runs is determined by assuming that 30 non-ambulatory patients can be accommodated per MAB trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.

In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the reception center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.

For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.

The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Activity:

Mobilize Drivers (A-)B->C)Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.Activity:

Board Passengers (C--)D)A loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is assumed.Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

T=t+B+t=B+2t=B+

, a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.

The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is: V V a a Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:

Travel to EPZ Boundary (D--)E)School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by Exelon and are summarized in Table 8-5.Also included in the table are the number of buses needed to evacuate schools, preschools, and day camps, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5) and correctional facilities (discussed below in Section 8.6).These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate all transit-dependent people in a single wave.The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate host school. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: Average Speed(-F)ZX11 length of link i (mi) 60 min.SoX hr.Delay on link i (min.) + length of link i (mi.) 60 mi.L= 1 ( m .x r-Icurrent speed on link i ý-r The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the reception center or host school was computed assuming an average speed of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 45 mph (40 mph for rain and 35 mph for snow) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 45 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in New Jersey is 45 mph.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the host school. The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A->B->C, C-4D, and D-)E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 41 = 2:30 for All Saints Regional Catholic School, in good weather, rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes).

The evacuation time to the host school is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E->F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.

As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), almost all (92%)evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 120 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. Transit-dependent bus routes are provided annually to EPZ residents in the emergency preparedness brochure.

These routes are shown in Figure 8-2 through Figure 8-7 and listed in Table 8-10. It is assumed that residents will walk to and congregate along these routes, and that they can arrive at the routes within the 120 minute bus Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 mobilization time (good weather).

Mobilization time is 10 minutes longer in rain and 20 minutes longer in snow to account for slower travel speeds and reduced roadway capacity.As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop. Longer pickup times of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow, respectively.

The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.

Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.

Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the bus Route 1A is computed as 120 + 238 + 30 = 6:30 for good weather. Here, 238 minutes is the time to travel 14.3 miles at 3.6 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 120 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.

The average single wave evacuation for transit dependent people is longer than the general population 901h percentile ETE.Activity:

Travel to Reception Centers (E-4F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.

Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity:

Passengers Leave Bus (F-4G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.Activity:

Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G--C)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the reception center.The second-wave ETE for the bus Route 1A is computed as follows for good weather: 0 Bus arrives at reception center at 6:38 in good weather (6:30 to exit EPZ + 8 minute Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 travel time to reception center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 8 minutes (equal to travel time to reception center) + 21 minutes (14.3 miles @ 41.8 mph) + 19 minutes (14.3 miles @45 mph)= 48 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 6:30 + 0:08 + 0:15 + 0:48 + 0:30 = 8:15 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a one-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is comparable to the ETE for the general population at the 9 0 th percentile.

The two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is 1 to 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> longer than the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile.

The relocation of transit-dependent evacuees from the reception centers to congregate care centers, if the state of New Jersey decides to do so, is not considered in this study.Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except: Buses and MABs are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients.Loading times of 1 minute and 10 minutes per patient are assumed for ambulatory and non-ambulatory patients, respectively.

Table 8-4 indicates that 41 bus runs and 9 MAB runs are needed to service all of the medical facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the state can provide 1,700 buses and 12 MABs.Thus, there are sufficient resources to evacuate the ambulatory and non-ambulatory persons from the medical facilities in a single wave.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes (100 in rain and 110 in snow). Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.

Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.

Table 8-14 and Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 45 mph (40 mph for rain and 35 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary.

The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses and MABs at capacity is assumed such that the maximum loading time for buses and/or MABs is 30 minutes and 300 minutes, respectively.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the calculation of ETE for the Assisted Living at Spring Oak with 102 ambulatory residents during good weather is: Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 ETE: 90 + 30 x 1 + 73 = 193 min. or 3:15 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.It is assumed that medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities outside of the EPZ. Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility is not considered in this analysis.8.5 Special Needs Population The special needs population was estimated from the transit-dependent population data provided by the NJSP. There are an estimated 491 homebound special needs people within the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate.

Approximately 431 transit dependent people would require a bus and 60 would require a MAB.ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.

The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle.It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory households are spaced 3 miles apart and non-ambulatory households are spaced 5 miles apart. Bus and MAB speeds approximate 10 mph between households in good weather (10% slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minutes were used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow). The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 45 mph (40 mph for rain and 35 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 431 ambulatory households need to be serviced.

While only 15 buses are needed from a capacity perspective, if 30 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require about 15 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 30 buses are deployed, each with about 15 stops, to service a total of 431 HH.2. The ETE is calculated as follows: a. Van arrive at the first pickup location:

90 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:

14 @ 18 minutes = 252 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:

14 @ 5 minutes = 70 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:

33 minutes (5 miles @ 9 mph).ETE: 90 + 5 + 252 + 15 + 33 = 7:30 rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The average ETE for homebound special needs is slightly longer the general population ETE at the 90th percentile.

Since the time to load the MABs dictates this ETE, the use of local ambulances could significantly reduce the homebound special needs ETE.8.6 Correctional Facilities As detailed in Table E-9, there is one correctional facility within the EPZ -Ocean County Corrections Department.

The total inmate population at this facility is 400 persons. A total of 14 buses are needed to evacuate these two facilities, based on a capacity of 30 inmates per bus.Mobilization time is assumed to be 90 minutes (100 minutes in rain, and 110 minutes in snow).It is estimated that it takes 60 minutes to load the inmates onto a bus, and that buses can be loaded in parallel.

Using GIS software, the shortest route from the facility to the EPZ boundary, traveling away from the plant, is 1 mile.Table 8-18 presents the ETE for the Ocean County Corrections Department in good weather, rain, and snow. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the ETE for the Ocean County Corrections Department in good weather is computed as: ETE: 90 + 60 + 3 (1 mile @ 22.5 mph) = 153 minutes = 2:35 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 (Subsequent Wave)Time A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Reception Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service A--+B Driver Mobilization B--C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C-*D Passengers Board the Bus D->E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E->F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZ F-+G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure 8-2. Transit Dependent Bus Routes 1A, 1B, 6A, and 6B Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-12 Evacuation Time Estimate KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 8-3. Transit Dependent Bus Routes 2A, 3A, 4A, 7A, 8A, and 17B Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 8-4. Transit Dependent Bus Routes 3B, 7B, 8B, 11A and 17A Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 8-5. Transit Dependent Bus Routes 10A, 14A, and Route 5/9/12/13 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 8-6. Transit Dependent Bus Routes 10B, 1OD, 14B, and 15B Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-16 Evacuation Time Estimate KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 8-7. Transit Dependent Bus Routes 10C, 10E, 15A, and 16A Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates-Aerg Percent S .Pecn .- Siz Toa Peopl Popu-ation

~' ~ Average HH with vvmu. ~r~vm Total HH fo HH Peop~fle i Esimated ~I! Requirn Requrin Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-2. School, Preschool, and Day Camps Population Demand Estimates Bu. se Schools 3 Waretown Elementary School 326 6 3 Russell 0. Brackman Middle School 797 15 3 Robert L. Horbelt Elementary School 425 8 3 Joseph T. Donahue Elementary 308 6 3 Cecil S. Collins School 697 13 3 Barnegat High School 1,040 19 3 Frederic A. Priff Elementary School 218 4 4 Ocean County Vocational Technical School 1 266 0 6 Mill Pond Elementary School 772 15 6 Lanoka Harbor Elementary School 635 12 6 Lacey Township High School 1,585 29 6 Cedar Creek Elementary School 611 12 6 Forked River Elementary School 542 10 6 Lacey Township Middle School 778 15 7 Stafford Intermediate 735 14 7 Meinders Primary Learning Center 292 6 7 Ocean County College : Southern Education Center 1 195 0 7 McKinley Ave Elementary School 706 13 7 Oxycocus Elementary School 244 5 7 Southern Regional Middle School 1,015 19 7 Southern Regional High School 2,072 38 7 Lighthouse Christian Academy 76 2 7 All Saints Regional Catholic School 400 8 7 Lillian M. Dunffee Elementary School 350 7 8 Ocean Acres Elementary School 523 10 10 Beachwood Elementary School 356 7 10 Pine Beach Elementary School 584 11 10 Ocean Gate Public School 149 3 10 Clara B. Worth Elementary School 491 9 10 Bayville Elementary School 478 9 10 H & M Potter Elementary School 456 9 10 Berkeley Township Elementary School 527 10 10 Central Regional High School 1,908 35 14 South Toms River Elementary School 356 7 1 Schools wherein all students drive themselves and would evacuate using their personal vehicles.Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 15 Ambassador Christian Academy 125 3 15 Island Heights Elementary School 114 3 15 Toms River High School South 1,591 29 15 Monsignor Donovan High School 1,798 33 15 Washington Street Elementary 362 7 16 Seaside Park Elementary School 79 2 17 Ethel A. Jacobsen Elementary School 138 3 17 Long Beach Island Grade School 100 2 Preschools 2 Gingerbread House Child Care 42 1 3 Bright Start Nursery School 62 2 3 Barnegat Community Center 20 1 3 Noah's Ark Day School 80 2 6 Littlest Angel Preschool Daycare 97 2 6 Happy Days Pre School 34 1 6 The Goddard School 128 3 6 Precious Journey Preschool 28 1 6 Land of Oz Learning Center 60 2 6 Forever Young Infant & Toddler 30 1 6 Forever Young Nursery School 97 2 6 First Adventure-Ascension Learning 60 2 7 Southern Ocean Preschool Inc. 75 2 7 Magic Moments Child Care 99 2 7 Manahawkin Methodist Preschool 46 1 7 Treasured Angels Inc. 66 2 7 Saleem Abdullah Center 28 1 7 Baby Angels Child Care Center 45 1 7 Learning Academy Pre-School 60 2 8 Happy Days 39 1 10 Care A Lot Preschool 25 1 10 Busy Bees Learning Center 40 1 10 Humpty Dumpty Day Care 29 1 10 Beachwood Nursery School 49 1 10 Wonder Years Childcare 45 1 10 The Learning Experience Development Center 196 4 10 Red Apple Country Day School 48 1 10 NRS Academy Inc. 60 2 10 Hillcrest Academy 120 3 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 10 Bayville Pre School 30 1 11 Bright Start Nursery School 56 2 14 The Learning Experience (South Toms River) 170 4 14 Young Explorers Child Care and Learning Center 55 1 14 Chesterbrook Academy 163 3 Ocean County Community Development 2 14 Corporation 106 14 Berkeley Head Start 20 1 15 Cherry Lane Child Care and Learning Center 155 3 15 Ring Around the Rosie 59 2 Day Camps 4 Joseph A. Citta Scout Camp 240 5 II 1%- c,-.nfn .; + l'rn"An r Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-3. School and Preschool Reception Centers ISc School Bayville Elementary School Berkeley Township Elementary School Cedar Creek Elementary School Central Regional High School Clara B. Worth Elementary School Forked River Elementary School H & M Potter Elementary School Ocean County College Lacey Township High School Lacey Township Middle School Lanoka Harbor Elementary School Mill Pond Elementary School Ocean Gate Public School Seaside Park Elementary School All Saints Regional Catholic School Barnegat High School Cecil S. Collins School Ethel A. Jacobsen Elementary School Frederic A. Priff Elementary School Joseph T. Donahue Elementary Lighthouse Christian Academy Lillian M. Dunffee Elementary School Long Beach Island Grade School McKinley Ave Elementary School Stockton State College Meinders Primary Learning Center Ocean Acres Elementary School Oxycocus Elementary School Robert L. Horbelt Elementary School Russell 0. Brackman Middle School Southern Regional High School Southern Regional Middle School Stafford Intermediate Waretown Elementary School Ambassador Christian Academy Toms River Intermediate East Monsignor Donovan High School Beachwood Elementary School Toms River Intermediate North Pine Beach Elementary School Island Heights Elementary School South Toms River Elementary School Toms River High School South Washington Street Elementary Oyster Creek Generating Station 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Ir~ho Host Scho Bayville Pre School Beachwood Nursery School Busy Bees Learning Center Care A Lot Preschool Hillcrest Academy Brick Township High School Humpty Dumpty Day Care NRS Academy Inc.Red Apple Country Day School The Learning Experience Development Center Wonder Years Childcare First Adventure-Ascension Learning Forever Young Infant & Toddler Forever Young Nursery School Happy Days Pre School Land of Oz Learning Center Littlest Angel Preschool Daycare Precious Journey Preschool The Goddard School Cherry Lane Child Care and Learning Center Manchester Middle School Ring Around the Rosie Berkeley Head Start Chesterbrook Academy Ocean County Community Development Corporation Manchester High School The Learning Experience (South Toms River)Young Explorers Child Care and Learning Center Baby Angels Child Care Center Barnegat Community Center Bright Start Nursery School Bright Start Nursery School Gingerbread House Child Care Happy Days Learning Academy Pre-School Pinelands Regional High School Magic Moments Child Care Manahawkin Methodist Preschool Noah's Ark Day School Saleem Abdullah Center Southern Ocean Preschool Inc.Treasured Angels Inc.Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit Demand Cap Amu No- Bu A ERPA Failt Nam Muii altact ty Abaor Rus un 6 Assisted Living at Spring Oak Lanoka Harbor 104 102 2 4 1 7 Barnegat Nursing Center Barnegat Township 115 109 6 4 1 8 Manahawkin Convalescent Center Manahawkin 105 100 5 4 1 8 Southern Ocean County Hospital Manahawkin 156 140 16 5 1 8 Southern Ocean Nursing & Rehab Center Manahawkin 136 129 7 5 1 10 Bayville Manor Bayville 60 58 2 2 1 10 Crystal Lake Healthcare and Rehabilitation Manahawkin 225 219 6 8 1 10 Tallwoods Care Center Bayville 180 175 5 6 1 11 Emeritus at Stafford Assisted Living Manahawkin 94 89 5 3 1 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Tranporttio State of New Jersey 0 I 12 I NJ Transit 1,700 0 SSchools, Preschools, and Day Camps (Table 82: 544 0 Medical Facilities (Table 8-4): 41 9 Transit-Dependent Population (Table 8-10): 38 0 Homebound Special Needs (Section 8.5): 30 3 Correctional Facilities (Section 8.6): 14 0 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions 1 All Saints Regional Catholic School 382, 389, 385, 303, 304, 305, 1005, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 2 Ambassador Christian Academy 844, 841, 842, 835, 865 3 Barnegat High School 512, 513, 514, 487, 1062, 1007, 408, 489, 1294,488,84,85,86,87,88,89,1106,90, 91,92,104 1044,176,1232,177,751,702,178,1041, 4 Bayville Elementary School 722,179,703,699,1040,711,180,51,52, 53,54 686,692,693,702,178,1041,723,1039, 5 Beachwood Elementary School 701,715,1034,717,718,844,841,842,835, 865 658,174,1046,175,1044,176,1232,177, 6 Berkeley Township Elementary School 751,702,178,1041,722,179,703,699, 1040,711,180,51,52,53,54 512,513,514,487,1062,1007,408,489, 7 Brackman Middle School 1294,488,84,85,86,87,88,89,1106,90, 91,92,104 528,514,487,1062,1007,408,489,1294, 8 Cecil S. Collins School 488,84,85,86,87,88,89,1106,90,91,92, 104 626,576,577,578,44,45,46,47,48,49,50, 9 Cedar Creek Elementary School 10,5,5,5,5 1008,51,52,53,54 10 Central Regional High School 660,661,47,48,49,50,1008,51,52,53,54 11 Central Regional Middle School 660,661,47,48,49,50,1008,51,52,53,54 641, 637, 638, 639, 640, 660, 661, 47, 48, 49, 12 Clara B. Worth Elementary School 541,6 51,652,53,54 50,1008,51,52,53,54 574,575,625,576,577,578,44,45,46,47, 13 Forked River Elementary School 4,4,5,10,5,5,5,5 48,49,50,1008,51,52,53,54 14 Frederick PriffSchool 532,533,534,535,81,106,34,82,83,488, 84,85,86,87,88,89,1106,90,91,92,104 737,736,175,1044,176,1232,177,751, 15 H & M Potter Elementary School 702,178,1041,722,179,703,699,1040, 711, 180, 51, 52, 53, 54 16 Island Heights Elementary School 850,849,831,832,869,833,834,835,865 512,513,514,487,1062,1007,408,489, 17 Joseph T Donahue Elementary School 1294,488,84,85,86,87,88,89,1106,90, 91,92,104 626,576,577,578,44,45,46,47,48,49,50, 18 LaceyTownship High School008,51,2,53,54 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 BusII Ie.7I~ I JfsUI.. I(~1U.Rot Noe .rvese frmRueSatt 6 19 Lacey Township Middle School 625, 576, 577, 578, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 626, 576, 577, 578, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 20 Lanoka Harbor Elementary School 10,5,5,5,5 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 370, 144, 300, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 1005, 21 Lighthouse Christian Academy891069,9,9214 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 1064, 1118, 487, 1062, 1007, 408, 489, 1294, 22 Lillian M. Dunfee Elementary School 488, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 383, 386, 387, 388, 384, 385, 303, 304, 305, 23 McKinley Avenue Elementary School 100,38 6,3 90,3 91,3 92,104 1005, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 626, 576, 577, 578, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 24 Mill Pond Elementary School 10,5,5,5,5 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 25 Monsignor Donovan High School 842, 835, 865 405, 424, 406, 415, 1103, 308, 307, 306, 26 Ocean Acres Elementary School 105,410,90,91,9104 1105, 1107, 90, 91, 92, 104 27 Ocean County Vocational Technical School 535, 81, 106, 34, 82, 83, 488, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 734, 736, 175, 1044, 176, 1232, 177, 751, 28 Ocean Gate Elementary School 702, 178, 1041, 723, 1039, 701, 715, 1034, 717, 718, 844, 841, 842, 835, 865 370, 144, 300, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 1005, 29 Oxycocus Elementary School891069,9,9214 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 744, 749, 1318, 1319, 1320, 1321, 755, 723, 30 Pine Beach Elementary School 1039, 701, 715, 1034, 717, 718, 844, 841, 842, 835, 865 1063, 487, 1062, 1007, 408, 489, 1294, 488, 31 Robert L. Horbelt Elementary School 16,8,0210,0,8,2448 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 365, 366, 367, 297, 298, 299, 300, 301, 302, 32 Ronald L. Meinder's Primary Learning Center 303,304,367,210,289,310,901,392, 303, 304, 305, 1005, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 33 Route iOA 683, 678, 679, 680, 681, 690, 698, 699, 1040, 711, 180, 51, 52, 53, 54 1236, 654, 655, 637, 641, 637, 638, 639, 640, 34 Route lOB 660, 659, 660, 661, 47, 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 646, 647, 648, 649, 650, 172, 173, 658, 174, 35 Route 10C 1046, 175, 1044, 176, 1232, 177, 751, 702, 178, 1041, 722, 179, 703, 699, 1040, 711, 180, 51, 52, 53, 54 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Bus. .0 *S Rout Noe Trvre fr0 RotStrtt.P 36 Route 1OD 725,652,653,173,658,174,1046,175, 1044,176,1232,177,751,702,178,1041, 722,179,703,699,1040,711,180,51,52, 53,54 733,734,736,175,1044,176,1232,177, 37 Route 1OE 751,702,178,1041,722,179,703,699, 1040,711,180,51,52,53,54 38 Route 14A 721, 857, 853, 854, 855, 856, 878, 880, 881 39 Route 14B 691, 708, 709, 180, 51, 52, 53, 54 40 Route 15A 834, 847, 846, 839, 840, 1334, 841, 842, 835, 1298,836 41 Route 16A 571,572,1172,1171,573,768,769,770, 772,1170,771,774 278,229,230,231,232,233,239,240,241, 42 Route 17A 242,243,1291,244,218,221,289,290,291, 292,324,293,294,295,296,297,367,368, 369,144,143,142,333,392 604,603,602,601,621,165,166, 1050, 1048,167,168,674,643,169,170,171,172, 43 Route 1A 173,658,174,1046, 175,1044,176,1232, 177,751,702,178,1041,722,179,703,699, 1040,711,180,51,52,53,54 562,563,564,565,566,567,568,569,570, 164,1054,165,166,1050,1048,167,168, 44 Route 1B 674,643,169,170,171,172,173,658,174, 1046,175,1044,176,1232,177,751,702, 178,1041,722,179,703,699,1040,711, 180,51,52,53,54 1059,1058,558,159,532,533,534,535,81, 45 Route 2A 106,34,82,83,488,84,85,86,87,88,89, 1106,90,91,92,104 159,532,533,534,535,81,106,34,82,83, 46 Route 3A 488, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 509,508,507,506,505,150,1063,487, 47 Route 3B 1062, 1007,408,489, 1294,488,84,85, 86, 87,88,89,1106,90,91,92,104 48 Route 4A 535,81,106,34,82,83,488,84,85,86,87, 88,89,1106,90,91,92,104 615,616,624,606,607,608,609, 610,611, 49 Route 6A 625,576,577,578,44,45,46,47,48,49,50, 1008,51,52,53,54 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 50Rot 63628, 627, 626, 576, 577, 578, 44, 45, 46, 47, 50 Route 6B 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 51 Route6C 1053, 166, 574, 575, 625, 576, 577, 578, 44, 51______ Route _______6C45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 52 Route 7A 1068, 397, 398, 395, 145, 370, 144, 300, 301, 302,303,304,305,1005,89,1106,90,91, 92,104 363,364,365,366,367,368,369,144,300, 53 Route 7B 301,302,303,304,305,1005,89,1106,90, 91,92,104 54 Route 8A 409,410,411,412,413,414,1103,308,307, 306,1105,1107,90,91,92,104 55 Route 8B 404,405,424,418,419,311,310,309,308, 307,306,1105,1107,90,91,92,104 56 Routes 5, 9, 12, and 13 1015,1016,664,1158,673,709,180,51,52, 53,54 57 Seaside Park Elementary School 770,772,1170 58 South Toms River Elementary School 673,709,180,51,52,53,54 400,145,370,144,300,301,302,303,304, 59 Southern Regional High School 35 05 9 16 0 1 2 0 305,1005,89,1106,90,91,92,104 400,145,370,144,300,301,302,303,304, 60 Southern Regional Middle School 35 OS 9 16 0 1 2 0 305,1005,89,1106,90,91,92,104 61 St. Joseph's Elementary School 841,842,835,865 383,386,387,388,384,385,303, 304,305, 62 StaffordlIntermediate School105891069,9,9214 1005,89,1106,90,91,92,104 383,386,387,388,384,385,303, 304,305, 63 Stafford Township Arts Center105891069,9,9214 1005,89,1106,90,91,92,104 408,401,490,491,492,493,318,319,1233, 64 To Pinelands Regional High School 48 2,40 3 428,429,430,431 65 Toms River High School South 844,841,842,835,865 532,533,534,535,81,106,34,82,83,488, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 67 Noah's Ark Day School 532,533,534,535,81,106,34,82,83,488, 84,85,86,87,88,89,1106,90,91,92,104 1062,1007,408,489,1294,488,84,85,86, 68 Barnegat Community Center8788891069,9,9214 87,88,89,1106,90,91,92,104 1064,1118,487,1062,1007,408,489,1294, 69 Learning Academy Pre-School 488, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 379,380,381,382,389,385,303,304,305, 70 Baby Angels Child Care Center,89,1106,90,91,92,104 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 BusI~iir~

niz~riU iiiU~iTj~~1mi Rout Noe Trvre fro RotS trtt.P 71 First Adventure-Ascension Learning 574, 575, 625, 576, 577, 578, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 72 Forever Young Nursery School 578, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 73 Forever Young Infant & Toddler 627, 626, 576, 577, 578, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 166, 574, 575, 625, 576, 577, 578, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 675, 674, 168, 167, 628, 627, 626, 576, 577, 75 Happy Days Pre School 578, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 631, 635, 636, 637, 638, 639, 640, 660, 661, 76 Littlest Angel Preschool Daycare 47,648, 649 , 650 ,10 8,651, 652, 653,654 47, 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 511, 512, 513, 514, 487, 1062, 1007, 408, 77 Bright Start Nursery School 489, 1294, 488, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 1118, 487, 1062, 1007, 408, 489, 1294, 488, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 1065, 1066, 1063, 487, 1062, 1007, 408, 489, 79 Treasured Angels Inc 1294, 488, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 80 Happy Days 310, 309, 308, 307, 306, 1105, 1107, 90, 91, 80__ _ Happy Days92, 104 81 Magic Moments Child Care 368, 369, 144, 300, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 1005, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 82 Manahawkin Methodist Preschool 376, 370, 144, 300, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 1005, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 145, 370, 144, 300, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 83 Southern Ocean Preschool Inc. o,891069,9,9214 1005, 89, 1106, 90, 91, 92, 104 172, 642, 641, 637, 638, 639, 640, 660, 661, 84 Bayville Pre School 47, 48, 49, 50, 1008, 51, 52, 53, 54 174, 1046, 175, 1044, 176, 1232, 177, 751, 85 Hillcrest Academy 702, 178, 1041, 722, 179, 703, 699, 1040, 711, 180, 51, 52, 53, 54 176, 1232, 177, 751, 702, 178, 1041, 722, 179, 703, 699, 1040, 711, 180, 51, 52, 53, 54 87 Beachwood Nursery School 679, 680, 681, 690, 698, 699, 1040, 711, 180, 51, 52, 53, 54 88 Humpty Dumpty Day Care 703, 699, 1040, 711, 180, 51, 52, 53, 54 89 Berkeley Head Start 709, 180, 51, 52, 53, 54 90 Ocean County Community Development Corp 673, 709, 180, 51, 52, 53, 54 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Route Noe Trvred frmRut trtt.91 Chesterbrook Academy 853,854,855,856,878,880 92 The Learning Experience (S Toms River) 708,709,180,51,52,53,54 850,849,831,832,869,833,834,835,1298, 93 Ring Around the Rosie 836 94 Cherry Lane Child Care and Learning Center 844, 1299, 836, 1300, 893 95 Ocean County Corrections Department 839, 718, 844, 1299, 836 1046,175,1044,176,1232,177,751,702, 96 Bayville Manor 178,1041,722,179,703,699,1040,711, 180,51,52,53,54 637,638,639,640,660,661,47,48,49,50, 97 Crystal Lake Healthcare and Rehab 10,5,5,5,5 1008,51,52,53,54 172,173,658,174,1046,175,1044,176, 98 Tallwoods Care Center 1232, 177, 751, 702, 178, 1041, 722, 179, 703,699,1040,711,180,51,52,53,54 674,168,167,628,627,626,576,577,578, 44,45,46,47,48,49,50,1008,51,52,53,54 1063,487,1062,1007,408,489,1294,488, 84,85,86,87,88,89,1106,90,91,92,104 1103,308,307,306,1105,1107,90,91,92, 101 Southern Ocean County Hospital 104 309, 308, 307, 306, 1105, 1107, 90, 91, 92, 102 Summerville at Stafford Assisted Living 104 103 Manahawkin Convalescent Center 308,307,306,1105,1107,90,91,92,104 310, 309, 308, 307, 306, 1105, 1107, 90, 91, 104 Southern Ocean Nursing & Rehab Center 9104 92, 104 109 Route 11A 408,401,490,491,492,493,318,319,320 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-7. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather All bainTs Kegionai LamtliC bcnooi Vu I 1.o 1-5 41 Ambassador Christian Academy 90 15 0.8 29.5 2 Barnegat High School 90 15 7.6 4.7 99 Bayville Elementary School 90 15 4.7 3.0 94 Beachwood Elementary School 90 15 3.8 5.3 43 Berkeley Township Elementary School 90 15 6.3 2.3 162 Cecil S. Collins School 90 15 7.3 6.0 72 Cedar Creek Elementary School 90 15 8.7 10.0 52 Central Regional High School 90 15 5.4 9.6 34 Clara B. Worth Elementary School 90 15 7.6 8.1 56 Ethel A. Jacobsen Elementary School 90 15 9.6 45.0 13 Forked River Elementary School 90 15 9.1 7.1 77 Frederic A. Priff Elementary School 90 15 10.2 41.0 15 H & M Potter Elementary School 90 15 5.4 2.6 128 Island Heights Elementary School 90 15 2.6 37.4 4 Joseph T. Donahue Elementary 90 15 7.6 4.7 99 Lacey Township High School 90 15 8.6 10.0 51 Lacey Township Middle School 90 15 8.2 9.6 51 Lanoka Harbor Elementary School 90 15 9.1 10.0 54 Lighthouse Christian Academy 90 15 4.8 3.6 82 Lillian M. Dunffee Elementary School 90 15 7.2 5.9 73 Long Beach Island Grade School 90 15 9.6 45.0 13 McKinley Ave Elementary School 90 15 3.6 5.1 42 Meinders Primary Learning Center 90 15 3.6 3.9 56 19.3 2.7 20.2 7.6 2.8 7.4 20.2 7.4 7.4 7.4 19.3 7.4 20.2 7.6 2.3 20.2 7.4 7.4 7.4 19.3 20.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 26 4 27 10 4 10 27 10 10 10 26 10 27 10 3 27 10 10 10 26 27 26 26 26 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Mill Pond Elementary School 90 15 8.6 10.0 51 Monsignor Donovan High School 90 15 0.2 26.0 0 Ocean Acres Elementary School 90 15 4.2 5.8 44 Ocean Gate Public School 90 15 5.7 2.7 129 Oxycocus Elementary School 90 15 4.5 3.4 79 Pine Beach Elementary School 90 15 3.1 6.4 30 Robert L. Horbelt Elementary School 90 15 7.1 7.2 59 Russell 0. Brackman Middle School 90 15 8.2 4.7 105 Seaside Park Elementary School 90 15 1.5 31.9 3 South Toms River Elementary School 90 15 2.1 1.8 70 Southern Regional High School 90 15 5.2 3.8 82 Southern Regional Middle School 90 15 5.2 3.8 82 Stafford Intermediate 90 15 3.6 2.2 96 Toms River High School South 90 1s 0.9 29.5 2 Waretown Elementary School 90 15 10.7 41.0 16 Washington Street Elementary 90 15 0.4 29.5 1 S___ Maximum for EPZ: Avrg *for EPZ: Baby Angels Child Care Center 90 15 4.2 6.1 41 Barnegat Community Center 90 15 6.2 11.6 32 Bayville Pre School 90 15 7.9 6.7 72 Beachwood Nursery School 90 15 3.2 2.1 93 Berkeley Head Start 90 15 4.5 3.8 71 Bright Start Nursery School 90 15 7.6 4.2 108 Bright Start Nursery School 90 15 7.6 4.2 108 7.4 10-2.7 4 19.3 26 3.7 5 19.3 26 2.8 4 20.2 27 20.2 27 7.6 10 2.3 3 19.3 26 19.3 26 19.3 26 2.3 3 20.2 27 2.3 3 Maim : 7.7 9.0 9.0 5.9 1U 10 12 12 8 10 10 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Busy Bees Learning Center 90 15 2.6 5.3 29 Care A Lot Preschool 90 15 2.4 5.3 28 Cherry Lane Child Care and Learning Center 90 15 0.2 37.1 0 Chesterbrook Academy 90 15 1.6 2.8 35 First Adventure-Ascension Learning 90 15 8.5 7.1 72 Forever Young Infant & Toddler 90 15 8.8 9.3 57 Forever Young Nursery School 90 15 7.2 12.4 35 Gingerbread House Child Care 90 15 10.3 41.0 15 Happy Days 90 15 3.3 3.2 61 Happy Days Pre School 90 15 11.0 6.8 96 Hillcrest Academy 90 15 5.8 2.3 148 Humpty Dumpty Day Care 90 15 2.5 5.3 29 Land of Oz Learning Center 90 15 9.1 5.3 102 Learning Academy Pre-School 90 15 8.0 6.1 78 Littlest Angel Preschool Daycare 90 15 8.1 7.1 69 Magic Moments Child Care 90 15 4.4 3.7 72 Manahawkin Methodist Preschool 90 15 4.3 3.7 70 Noah's Ark Day School 90 15 10.3 41.0 15 NRS Academy Inc. 90 15 8.2 6.7 74 Ocean County Community Development Corporation 90 15 4.7 2.3 126 Precious Journey Preschool 90 15 9.4 5.4 105 Red Apple Country Day School 90 15 4.0 3.4 71 Ring Around the Rosie 90 15 3.3 38.0 5 Saleem Abdullah Center 90 15 6.4 8.2 47 Southern Ocean Preschool Inc. 90 15 4.8 3.4 84 The Goddard School 90 15 8.9 5.3 100 9.0 9.0 5.5 5.8 12.7 12.8 12.7 7.7 7.7 12.7 9.0 9.0 12.7 7.7 12.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 9.0 5.9 12.3 9.0 5.5 7.7 7.7 12.3 12 12 7 8 17 17 17 10 10 17 12 12 17 10 17 10 10 10 12 8 16 12 7 10 10 16 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 The Learning Experience (South Toms River)The Learning Experience Development Center Young Explorers Child Care and Learning Center Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.8-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-8. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain All Saints Regional Catholic School 100 20 3.6 5.2 41 Ambassador Christian Academy 100 20 0.8 27.9 2 Barnegat High School 100 20 7.6 4.8 96 Bayville Elementary School 100 20 4.7 3.0 95 Beachwood Elementary School 100 20 3.8 4.3 52 Berkeley Township Elementary School 100 20 6.3 2.3 168 Cecil S. Collins School 100 20 7.3 6.9 64 Cedar Creek Elementary School 100 20 8.7 7.6 69 Central Regional High School 100 20 5.4 5.9 55 Clara B. Worth Elementary School 100 20 7.6 6.4 71 Ethel A. Jacobsen Elementary School 100 20 9.6 40.0 14 Forked River Elementary School 100 20 9.1 6.5 83 Frederic A. Priff Elementary School 100 20 10.2 26.2 23 H & M Potter Elementary School 100 20 5.4 2.5 132 Island Heights Elementary School 100 20 2.6 35.1 4 Joseph T. Donahue Elementary 100 20 7.6 4.8 96 Lacey Township High School 100 20 8.6 7.6 68 Lacey Township Middle School 100 20 8.2 7.1 69 Lanoka Harbor Elementary School 100 20 9.1 7.6 72 Lighthouse Christian Academy 100 20 4.8 4.1 71 Lillian M. Dunffee Elementary School 100 20 7.2 6.6 65 Long Beach Island Grade School 100 20 9.6 40.0 14 McKinley Ave Elementary School 100 20 3.6 5.2 42 Meinders Primary Learning Center 100 20 3.6 3.8 57 Mill Pond Elementary School 100 20 8.6 7.6 68 Monsignor Donovan High School 100 20 0.2 21.5 1 19.3 2.7 20.2 7.6-2.8-7.4 20.2-7.4 7.4 7.4 19.3 7.4 20.2-7.6 2.3 20.2 7.4-7.4 7.4 19.3 20.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 29 4 30 11 4 11 30 11 11 11 29 11 30 11 3 30 11 11 11 29 30 29 29 29 11 4 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Ocean Acres Elementary School 100 20 4.2 5.4 46 Ocean Gate Public School 100 20 5.7 2.4 141 Oxycocus Elementary School 100 20 4.5 3.9 70 Pine Beach Elementary School 100 20 3.1 5.7 33 Robert L. Horbelt Elementary School 100 20 7.1 7.5 57 Russell 0. Brackman Middle School 100 20 8.2 4.8 102 Seaside Park Elementary School 100 20 1.5 29.2 3 South Toms River Elementary School 100 20 2.1 1.8 72 Southern Regional High School 100 20 5.2 3.9 80 Southern Regional Middle School 100 20 5.2 3.9 80 Stafford Intermediate 100 20 3.6 2.4 90 Toms River High School South 100 20 0.9 27.9 2 Waretown Elementary School 100 20 10.7 26.2 25 Washington Street Elementary 100 20 0.4 27.9 1 Maximum for EPZ: Average fw EPZ: Baby Angels Child Care Center 100 20 4.2 5.9 42 Barnegat Community Center 100 20 6.2 9.4 40 Bayville Pre School 100 20 7.9 5.7 83 Beachwood Nursery School 100 20 3.2 2.1 94 Berkeley Head Start 100 20 4.5 3.7 73 Bright Start Nursery School 100 20 7.6 4.4 104 Bright Start Nursery School 100 20 7.6 4.4 104 Busy Bees Learning Center 100 20 2.6 5.2 30 Care A Lot Preschool 100 20 2.4 5.2 28 Cherry Lane Child Care and Learning Center 100 20 0.2 33.2 0 Chesterbrook Academy 100 20 1.6 1.5 65 First Adventure-Ascension Learning 100 20 8.5 6.3 81 19.3 29 3.7 6 19.3 29 2.8 4 20.2 30 20.2 30 7.6 11 2.3 3 19.3 29 1 9.3 29 19.3 29 2.3 3 20.2 30-2.3 3 Maximum:/./7.7 9.0 9.0 5.9 7.7 7.7 9.0 9.0 5.5 5.8 12.7 ii 11 13 13 9 11 11 13 13 8 9 19 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Forever Young Infant & Toddler 100 20 8.8 7.2 74 Forever Young Nursery School 100 20 7.2 7.7 56 Gingerbread House Child Care 100 20 10.3 26.2 24 Happy Days 100 20 3.3 3.3 59 Happy Days Pre School 100 20 11.0 6.0 109 Hillcrest Academy 100 20 5.8 2.2 155 Humpty Dumpty Day Care 100 20 2.5 5.2 29 Land of Oz Learning Center 100 20 9.1 5.1 108 Learning Academy Pre-School 100 20 8.0 6.9 69 Littlest Angel Preschool Daycare 100 20 8.1 5.7 85 Magic Moments Child Care 100 20 4.4 4.2 63 Manahawkin Methodist Preschool 100 20 4.3 4.2 62 Noah's Ark Day School 100 20 10.3 26.2 24 NRS Academy Inc 100 20 8.2 5.7 86 Ocean County Community Development Corporation 100 20 4.7 2.2 132 Precious Journey Preschool 100 20 9.4 5.1 111 Red Apple Country Day School 100 20 4.0 3.3 73 Ring Around the Rosie 100 20 3.3 35.7 6 Saleem Abdullah Center 100 20 6.4 7.1 54 Southern Ocean Preschool Inc. 100 20 4.8 3.6 80 The Goddard School 100 20 8.9 5.1 106 The Learning Experience (South Toms River) 100 20 5.4 3.7 89 The Learning Experience Development Center 100 20 8.1 5.7 84 Treasured Angels Inc 100 20 7.3 4.7 92 Wonder Years Childcare 100 20 6.1 2.3 163 Young Explorers Child Care and Learning Center 100 20 5.3 3.8 83 Maximum for EPZ: Average for EPZ: 12.8 19 12.7 19 7.7 12 7.7 11 12.7 19 9.0 13 9.0 13 12.7 19 7.7 11 12.7 19 7.7 11 7.7 11 7.7 11 9.0 13 5.9 9 12.3 18 9.0 13 5.5 8 7.7 11 7.7 11 12.3 18 4.5 7 9.0 13 7.7 11 9.0 13 4.5 7 Maximum: Aveap 8-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-9. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow All zainls Kegionai nal i IcnlO J.LU 'z -J.b 4./ 4b Ambassador Christian Academy 110 25 0.8 26.4 2 Barnegat High School 110 25 7.6 4.4 104 Bayville Elementary School 110 25 4.7 2.5 113 Beachwood Elementary School 110 25 3.8 3.3 69 Berkeley Township Elementary School 110 25 6.3 1.9 199 Cecil S. Collins School 110 25 7.3 5.7 77 Cedar Creek Elementary School 110 25 8.7 9.4 56 Central Regional High School 110 25 5.4 7.8 42 Clara B. Worth Elementary School 110 25 7.6 7.3 63 Ethel A. Jacobsen Elementary School 110 25 9.6 35.0 16 Forked River Elementary School 110 25 9.1 7.5 72 Frederic A. Priff Elementary School 110 25 10.2 21.1 29 H & M Potter Elementary School 110 25 5.4 2.1 157 Island Heights Elementary School 110 25 2.6 31.2 5 Joseph T. Donahue Elementary 110 25 7.6 4.4 104 Lacey Township High School 110 25 8.6 9.4 55 Lacey Township Middle School 110 25 8.2 9.1 54 Lanoka Harbor Elementary School 110 25 9.1 9.4 58 Lighthouse Christian Academy 110 25 4.8 3.5 83 Lillian M. Dunffee Elementary School 110 25 7.2 6.2 70 Long Beach Island Grade School 110 25 9.6 35.0 16 McKinley Ave Elementary School 110 25 3.6 4.9 44 Meinders Primary Learning Center 110 25 3.6 3.4 64 Mill Pond Elementary School 110 25 8.6 9.4 55 2.7 20.2 7.6 2.8 7.4 20.2 7.4 7.4 7.4 19.3 7.4 20.2 7.6 2.3 20.2 7.4 7.4 7.4 19.3 20.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 7.4 ii 5 35 13 5 13 35 13 13 13 33 13 35 13 4 35 13 13 13 33 35 33 33 33 13 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-40 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Monsignor Donovan High School 110 0.2 22.4 1 Ocean Acres Elementary School 110 Ocean Gate Public School 110 Oxycocus Elementary School 110 4.2 5.4 47 5.7 2.1 164 4.5 3.5 78 Pine Beach Elementary School 110 3.1 5.6 34 Robert L. Horbelt Elementary School 110 25 7.1 6.5 65 Russell 0. Brackman Middle School 110 25 8.2 4.4 111 Seaside Park Elementary School 110 25 1.5 25.5 3 South Toms River Elementary School 110 25 2.1 1.9 68 Southern Regional High School 110 25 5.2 3.5 90 Southern Regional Middle School 110 25 5.2 3.5 90 Stafford Intermediate 110 25 3.6 2.1 100 Toms River High School South 110 25 0.9 26.4 2 Waretown Elementary School 110 25 10.7 21.1 31 Washington Street Elementary 110 25 0.4 26.4 1 Maximum for EPZ:-Average for EPL Baby Angels Child Care Center 110 25 4.2 5.3 47 Barnegat Community Center 110 25 6.2 8.3 45 Bayville Pre School 110 25 7.9 6.0 80 Beachwood Nursery School 110 25 3.2 2.0 95 Berkeley Head Start 110 25 4.5 4.1 66 Bright Start Nursery School 110 25 7.6 4.0 114 Bright Start Nursery School 110 25 7.6 4.0 114 Busy Bees Learning Center 110 25 2.6 5.1 30 Care A Lot Preschool 110 25 2.4 5.1 29 2.7 19.3 3.7 19.3 2.8 20.2 20.2 7.6 2.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 2.3 20.2 2.3 5 33 6 33 5 35 35 13 4 33 33 33 4 35 4 laximum:-7.7 9.0 9.0 5.9 7.7 7.7 9.0 9.0 13 15 15 10 13 13 15 15 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-41 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Cherry Lane Child Care and Learning Center 110 25 0.2 29.2 0 Chesterbrook Academy 110 25 1.6 5.4 18 First Adventure-Ascension Learning 110 25 8.5 7.5 69 Forever Young Infant & Toddler 110 25 8.8 8.8 60 Forever Young Nursery School 110 25 7.2 10.0 43 Gingerbread House Child Care 110 25 10.3 21.1 29 Happy Days 110 25 3.3 3.2 61 Happy Days Pre School 110 25 11.0 6.6 100 Hillcrest Academy 110 25 5.8 1.9 182 Humpty Dumpty Day Care 110 25 2.5 5.1 30 Land of Oz Learning Center 110 25 9.1 5.5 100 Learning Academy Pre-School 110 25 8.0 6.4 74 Littlest Angel Preschool Daycare 110 25 8.1 7.3 67 Magic Moments Child Care 110 25 4.4 3.6 72 Manahawkin Methodist Preschool 110 25 4.3 3.6 73 Noah's Ark Day School 110 25 10.3 21.1 29 NRS Academy Inc 110 25 8.2 6.0 83 Ocean County Community Development Corporation 110 25 4.7 2.1 134 Precious Journey Preschool 110 25 9.4 5.5 103 Red Apple Country Day School 110 25 4.0 3.0 82 Ring Around the Rosie 110 25 3.3 31.9 6 Saleem Abdullah Center 110 25 6.4 7.0 56 Southern Ocean Preschool Inc. 110 25 4.8 3.2 91 The Goddard School 110 25 8.9 5.5 98 The Learning Experience (South Toms River) 110 25 5.4 3.9 85 The Learning Experience Development Center 110 25 8.1 6.0 81 Treasured Angels Inc 110 25 7.3 4.7 93 5.5 9 5.8 12.7 12.8 12.7 7.7 7.7 12.7 9.0 9.0 12.7 7.7 12.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 9.0 5.9 12.3 9.0 5.5 7.7-7.7 12.3 4.5 10 22 22 22 13 13 22 15 15 22 13 22 13 13 13 15 10 21 15 9 13 13 21 8 15 13 8-42 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-42 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-43 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes No o ent Rot' ue ( .Route IA 1 14.3 Route 1B 1 19.9 Route 2A 1 16.4 Route 3A 2 15.2 Route 3B 1 12.3 Route 4A 1 16.8 Routes 5, 9, 12, and 13 1 19.2 Route 6A 2 13.2 Route 6B 1 18.6 Route 6C 1 18.7 Route 7A 2 9.7 Route 7B 2 12.1 Route 8A 2 9.4 Route 8B 2 7.8 Route iOA 2 6.2 Route lOB 2 14.1 Route 10C 2 18.5 Route 1OD 2 14.8 Route iOE 2 12.2 Route 11A 1 10.8 Route 14A 2 4.4 Route 14B 1 6.1 Route 15A 2 4.1 Route 16A 1 10.7 Route 17A 15.1 2 Transit dependent bus route descriptions are provided annually to the public.Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-44 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-45 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain nUULt J.LM IL S .LQ.3 3.a 4.1 L 40 3.V Route 1B 1 130 19.9 291 40 5.9 9 5 iu 67 40 Route 2A 1 130 16.4 29.1 34 40 Route 3A 2 130 15.2 27.8 33 40 Route 3B 1 130 12.3 5.4 137 40 Route 4A 1 130 16.8 28.1 36 40 Routes 5, 9, 1 130 19.2 8.0 144 40 12, and 13 Route 6A 2 130 13.2 6.2 128 40 Route 6B 1 130 18.6 10.3 108 40 Route 6C 1 130 18.7 7.4 152 40 Route 7A 2 130 9.7 3.5 166 40 Route 7B 2 130 12.1 6.4 113 40 Route BA 2 130 9.4 4.2 134 40 Route 8B 2 130 7.8 2.5 187 40 Route 10A 2 130 6.2 2.9 128 40 Route 10B 2 130 14.1 10.0 85 40 Route 10C 2 130 18.5 4.0 278 40 Route 1OD 2 130 14.8 3.7 240 40 Route WOE 2 130 12.2 4.0 183 40 Route 11A 1 130 10.8 5.1 127 40 Route 14A 2 130 4.4 2.1 126 40 Route 14B 1 130 6.1 3.4 108 40 Route 15A 2 130 4.1 29.6 8 40 Route 16A 1 130 10.7 22.7 28 40 Route 17A 1 130 15.1 7.2 126 40 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 7.7 11 5 10 66 40 7.7 11 5 10 62 40 7.7 11 5 10 53 40 7.7 11 5 10 79 40 5.9 9 5 10 63 40 5.9 9 5 10 67 40 5.9 9 5 10 98 40 5.9 9 5 10 78 40 7.7 11 5 10 38 40 7.7 11 5 10 75 40 7.7 11 5 10 80 40 7.7 11 5 10 54 40 5.9 9 5 10 27 40 5.9 9 5 10 60 40 5.9 9 5 10 63 40 5.9 9 5 10 63 40 5.9 9 5 10 78 40 10.8 16 5 10 54 40 5.9 9 5 10 23 40 5.9 9 5 10 26 40 5.9 9 5 10 22 40 12.1 18 5 10 51 40 8.6 13 5 10 59 40 Maximum Average Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-46 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Mouie A.M I 2.8 1 306 50 5.9 10 5 10 56 50 Route 1B 1 140 19.9 3.5 1 341 50 Route ZA 1 140 16.4 24.8 40 50 Route 3A 2 140 15.2 23.9 38 50 Route 3B 1 140 12.3 4.5 164 50 Route 4A 1 140 16.8 23.7 43 50 Routes 5, 9, 1 140 19.2 6.6 175 50 12, and 13 1 1 19 66 7 5 Route 6A 2 140 13.2 6.9 115 50 Route 6B 1 140 18.6 8.3 134 50 Route 6C 1 140 18.7 6.3 178 50 Route 7A 2 140 9.7 3.2 182 50 Route 7B 2 140 12.1 5.2 140 50 Route 8A 2 140 9.4 3.4 166 50 Route 8B 2 140 7.8 2.1 223 50 Route 1OA 2 140 6.2 2.3 162 50 Route 10B 2 140 14.1 11.3 75 50 Route 10C 2 140 18.5 3.3 336 50 Route 10D 2 140 14.8 3.0 296 50 Route 10E 2 140 12.2 3.1 236 50 Route 11A 1 140 10.8 4.4 147 50 Route 14A 2 140 4.4 2.3 115 50 Route 14B 1 140 6.1 3.3 111 50 Route 15A 2 140 4.1 27.8 9 50 5.9 10 5 10 72 50 7.7 13 5 10 80 50 7.7 13 5 10 78 50 7.7 13 5 10 64 50 7.7 13 5 10 85 50 5.9 10 5 10 69 50 5.9 10 5 10 67 50 5.9 10 5 10 73 50 5.9 10 5 10 67 50 7.7 13 5 10 50 50 7.7 13 5 10 90 50 7.7 13 5 10 98 50 7.7 13 5 10 63 50 5.9 10 5 10 30 50 5.9 10 5 10 79 50 5.9 10 5 10 68 50 5.9 10 5 10 63 50 5.9 10 5 10 86 50 10.8 19 5 10 68 50 5.9 10 5 10 49 50 5.9 10 5 10 61 50 5.9 10 5 10 24 50 Route 16A 1 140 10.7 20.5 31 50 12.1 21 5 10 57 50 Route 17A 1 140 15.1 14.0 65 8.6 1 15 1s 10 1 1 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-47 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-14. Special Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Ambulatory 90 1 58 30 5.6 117 4:00 Bayville Manor+ + + + I -~Non-Ambulatory 90 10 2 20 5.6 125 3:55 Crystal Lake Healthcare and Ambulatory 90 1 219 30 6.2 39 2:40 Rehabilitation Non-Ambulatory 90 10 6 60 6.2 33 3:05 Emeritus at Stafford Assisted Living Ambulatory 90 1 89 30 2.8 42 2:45 Non-Ambulatory 90 10 5 50 2.8 42 3:05 Manahawkin Convalescent Center Ambulatory 90 1 100 30 2.4 22 2:25 Non-Ambulatory 90 10 5 50 2.4 21 2:45 Southern Ocean County Hospital Ambulatory 90 1 140 30 3.5 53 2:55 Non-Ambulatory 90 10 16 150 3.5 81 5:25 Tallwoods Care Center Ambulatory 90 1 175 30 6.9 181 5:05 Non-Ambulatory 90 10 5 50 6.9 166 5:10 Maximum ETE: 5:25 Average ETE: 3:30 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-48 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Non-Ambulatory 100 10 6 60 6.5 42 3:25 Manor Ambulatory 100 1 58 30 5.6 128 4:20 Bayville ManorAmuaoy________________________

Non-Ambulatory 100 10 2 20 5.6 130 4:10 Crystal Lake Healthcare and Ambulatory 100 1 219 30 6.2 54 3:05 Rehabilitation Non-Ambulatory 100 10 6 60 6.2 42 3:25 Ambulatory

____ 100 1 89 I 30 2.8 43 2:55 Emeritus at Stafford Assisted Living Ambulatory 10__9_0 28_3__Non-Ambulatory 100 10 5 50 2.8 39 3:10 Manahawkin Convalescent Center Ambulatory 100 1 100 30 2.4 26 2:40 Non-Ambulatory 100 10 5 50 2.4 25 2:55 Southern Ocean County Hospital Ambulatory 100 1 140 30 3.5 50 3:00 Non-Ambulatory 100 10 16 150 3.5 56 5:10 Tallwoods Care Center Ambulatory 100 1 175 30 6.9 189 5:20 Non-Ambulatory 100 10 5 50 6.9 180 5:30 Maximum ETE: 5:30 Average ETE: 3:45 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-49 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Assisted Living at Spring Oak Non-Ambulatory 110 10 2 20 10.3 78 3:30 Nrsnge rAmbulatory 110 1 109 30 6.5 61 3:25 Barnegat Nursing Center Abltr ________Non-Ambulatory 110 10 6 60 6.5 54 3:45 Bayville Manor Ambulatory 110 1 58 30 5.6 157 5.:00 Non-Ambulatory 110 10 2 20 5.6 160 4:50 Crystal Lake Healthcare and Ambulatory 110 1 219 30 6.2 44 3:05 Rehabilitation Non-Ambulatory 110 10 6 60 6.2 33 3:25 Amuaoy110 1 89 30 2.8 49 3:10 Emeritus at Stafford Assisted Living Ambulatory 110_1_89_30_2.8_49_3:1 Non-Ambulatory 110 10 5 50 2.8 42 3:25 Manahawkin Convalescent Center Ambulatory 110 1 100 30 2.4 26 2:50 Non-Ambulatory 110 10 5 50 2.4 24 3:05 Southern Ocean County Hospital Ambulatory 110 1 140 30 3.5 54 3:15 Non-Ambulatory 110 10 16 150 3.5 67 5:30 Tallwoods Care Center Ambulatory 110 1 175 30 6.9 223 6:05 Non-Ambulatory 110 10 5 50 6.9 215 6:15 Maximum ETE: 6:15 Average ETE: 4:00 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-50 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Buses 431 30 15 Rain 100 S q280 70 37 8: Snow 110 322 39 9:10 Medical Good 90 342 33 11:05 Ambulance 60 3 20 Rain 100 10 380 190 37 12:00 Buses Snow 110 437 39 13:10 Maximum ETE: 13:10 Average ETE: 10:15 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-51 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-18. Correctional Facility Evacuation Time Estimates 6.Tra.el S~~~~~odn Tim .to.SS 5 -S05 5 S Rat Toa 5 5 .S* S Ocean County Good Corrections Rain Department Snow 90 100 110 Table 8-18. Correctional Facility Evacuation Time Estimates 3 2:35 14 2 400 60 1.0 3 2:45 13 2:55 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-52 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include:* Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers)." Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T.

All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version." A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are: 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.We employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.

There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.

For example: " A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating." An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process: 1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the state in their RERP serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment (see Figures 7-3 through 7-9).This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion.

Any critical intersections that would benefit from traffic or access control which are not already identified in the existing offsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs Oyster Creek Generating Station 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

3. The existing TCPs and ACPs, and how they were applied in this study, are discussed in Appendix G.4. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. These priorities should be assigned by state/local emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.

The ETE simulations discussed in Section 7 indicate that the evacuation routes are oversaturated and experience pronounced traffic congestion during evacuation due to the limited capacity of the roadways and the large volume of evacuating traffic. The GSP, Route 9, Route 72, and Whiting Lacey Road are the most heavily used evacuation routes. The ramps to the GSP are significant bottlenecks.

As shown in Figure 7-8, congestion persists for several hours along Route 72 as evacuees attempt to access the GSP southbound.

There is only one single lane on-ramp for the GSP southbound from Route 72 westbound.

There is, however, another southbound GSP on-ramp off of Recovery Road just south of the on-ramp from Route 72 westbound for vehicles heading eastbound on Route 72. Allowing vehicles traveling westbound on Route 72 to enter the southbound GSP on-ramp from Recovery Road will provide additional access to the GSP southbound for the heavy flow of vehicles along Route 72 westbound.

It is recommended that the intersection of Recovery Road and Stafford Park Blvd be considered as an additional TCP to allow vehicles traveling on Route 72 westbound two points of entry for the GSP southbound.

This additional TCP was included in developing the ETE documented in Section 7 after preliminary simulations showed a decrease in ETE of 40 minutes when using this additional ramp to the GSP southbound.

The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS)can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information.

DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information.

Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing ACP or TCP locations in the offsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals. Appendix K, Table K-2 identifies those intersections that were modeled as TCPs.Oyster Creek Generating Station 9-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> have elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.

Oyster Creek Generating Station 9-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components: " Routing from an ERPA being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ." Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable.

The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.See Appendices B through D for further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers or host schools is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.The State of New Jersey Radiological Emergency Response Plan (RERP) indicates evacuees can receive directions to congregate care centers at reception centers.Figure 10-1 presents an overview of the general population reception centers (listed in the public information) and host schools (listed in the state RERP) servicing the EPZ. The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2.It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate host school and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians.

Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest reception center. This study does not consider the transport of transit-dependent evacuees from reception centers to congregate care centers, if the state does make the decision to relocate evacuees.Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 10-1. General Population Reception Centers and Host Schools Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 10-2. Major Evacuation Routes Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation.

There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement.

Surveillance can take several forms.1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.

4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.

These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery.

It is the responsibility of the offsite response organizations to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that:* They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes.* Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.The state emergency plan discusses the provision of fuel and removal of traffic obstructions on major evacuation routes.Oyster Creek Generating Station 11-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate.

The State of New Jersey Radiological Emergency Response Plan does not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation.

Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.

The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.

It is reasonable to assume for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.The confirmation process should start at about 2Y2 hours after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Figure 5-4). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of ERPAs), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.If this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and could be periodically updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 2Y2 hours after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize.

This 21/22-hour timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.

Other techniques could also be considered.

After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.

Oyster Creek Generating Station 12-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.

Reference:

Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling McGraw Hill, 1971 Given: " No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 62,000" Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20" Allowable error margin, e: 0.05" Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p=F+e= 0.25; q=l-p=0.75 A 2 pq + e 3 n- -308 e2 Finite population correction:

nN nF -= 307 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated.

If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 215.Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume: " Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers):

30 seconds" Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds" Time for 4 rings plus short conversation:

60 sec.* Interval between calls: 20 sec.Person Hours: 300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20]= 7.6 3600 Oyster Creek Generating Station 12-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-1. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Term Definiio Analysis Network Link Measures of Effectiveness Node Origin Prevailing Roadway and Traffic Conditions A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g., composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.The cycle length is expressed in seconds.A single combination of signal indications.

The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.Service Rate Service Volume Signal Cycle Length Signal Interval Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate A-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I TermDefiniio Signal Phase Traffic (Trip) Assignment Traffic Density Traffic (Trip) Distribution Traffic Simulation Traffic Volume Travel Mode Trip Table or Origin-Destination Matrix Turning Capacity A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection.

The phase duration is expressed in seconds.A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives.

In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance.

These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.

The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations.

These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate A-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios.

DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEVII System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost." Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario.

That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these"best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways.

The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip"cost", as discussed later.The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified"geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements.

DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.Oyster Creek Generating Station B-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations.

The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEVII using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling.

Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion.

To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions.

The modeling principles of D-TRAD include: " It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several"efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose.* The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling".

Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed.

The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression." DTRAD executes the TA algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user." Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as Ca = at,, + /31l + Ysi , wherecais the generalized cost for link a, anda,/8, andyare cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively.

Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions.

The DYNEV simulation model Oyster Creek Generating Station B-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior.

This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-i. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session).

A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant: Sa =- 13 In (p), 0 < p!I; 13 >0 d, pdo dn= Distance of node, n, from the plant d 0=Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 13 = Scaling factor The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the shadow region. Note that the supplemental cost, Sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote: Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium".

It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful]

condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective"costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e., commuters).

Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.B-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 0-I Start of next DTRAD Session Set To = Clock time.Archive System State at To I Define latest Link Turn Percentages , I Execute Simulation Model from time, To to T 1 (burn time)Provide DTRAD with link MOE at 1 time, T 1]I Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages Retrieve System State at To Apply new Link Turn Percents!I DTRAD iteration converges?

I No Yes Next iteration Simulate from To to T 2 (DTA session duration)Set Clock to T 2 Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables:

vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions.

The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)such as those listed in Table C-i.Model Features Include:* Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles.* Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model." At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications:

queued and moving vehicles.

The number of vehicles in each classification is computed.

Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified.

The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation.

There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link.* Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented.

This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source.* The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.

If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded.* A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.* A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages." Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN" Calculates ETE statistics Oyster Creek Generating Station C-1 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 All traffic simulation models are data-intensive.

Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections:

rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways.

The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).Figure C-i is an example of a small network representation.

The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively.

An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.

Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II MeasureUnitsAppie To Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Route Statistics Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Time (min)Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK* Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers" Link lengths* Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization

• Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)" Destination (exit) nodes" Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link" Node Coordinates (X,Y)" Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES 0 On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS" Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific" Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated" Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)" Stop and Yield signs" Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)* Route diversion specifications

• Turn restrictions" Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)

DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS" Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms:

free-flow speed, discharge headway* Bus route designation.

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT" Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)" Duration of DTA sessions" Duration of simulation "burn time"* Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS* Identify and Schedule of closed lanes Identify and Schedule of closed links Oyster Creek Generating Station C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Entry; Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships.

Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf <s k < kc = 45 vpm, the density at capacity.

In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k < ks = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion.

The value of flow rate, Qs, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax ; (3) Critical density, kc =45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, ki. Then, vc- Q`xk =( V f -V c)k f kk ' m --k (Vf-V- k Setting k=k-kc, thenQ= RQmax RQmax k 2 for 0 k<ks = 50. It can be Qmax 8333 shown that Q = (0.98 -0.0056 k) RQmax for k, -5 k :5 kj, where ks = 50 and W, = 175.C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems".

Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.

Oyster Creek Generating Station C-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Volume, vph Capacity Drop Qmax -R Qmax -Speed, Vf R vc--Qs mph Free: Forced'I Ir I I I I-- -- --- -- --------Density, vpm-o Density, vpm kc k! Sk ,j ksa Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Distance It OQ OM OE tF Qb Mb Qe Me O Down Up-* Time L F Ei E2 TI Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with tj > 0 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the time interval.

The portion, ETI, can reach the stop-bar within the TI.The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn movement on a link.h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.-The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a link.L The length of the link in feet.Lb , Le The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a time interval.The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a particular movement on a link.ILv The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.M Metering factor (Multiplier):

1.The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb, Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval.

These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link over a time interval.The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link within a time interval:

vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of OQOMO 0 E the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that executes a particular turn movement, x.Oyster Creek GeneratinR Station C-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the Qb, Qe [beginning, end] of the time interval.The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax .RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.SX Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).tj Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first tj seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.

Given= Qb, Mb, L, TI, Eo, LN, G/C , h, Lv, Ro, L, E,M Compute = 0, Qe, Me Define O=OQ+OM+OE

E=E 1+E 2 1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, k 0 , the R -factor, R 0 and entering traffic, E 0 , using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.For each subsequent sweep, s > 1, calculate E = Zi Pi Oi + S where Pi, Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i, and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = k 0 , and E = E 0 .2. Calculate v (k) such that k

_ 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.Qmnax(TI)

(Calculate Cap = 0 (G/c) LN,in vehicles, this value may be reduced due to metering SetR= l.0ifG/C<l orifk_<k,;

Set R=0.9onlyif G/C= land k>k, Calculate queue length, Lb = Qb v L tN 3. Calculate tj= TI-L Ift 1<O, settl =El =OE=O; Else, E 1 =E t-v TI 4. Then E 2=E-El ; t 2 =TI-tj 5. If Qb > Cap, then OQ = Cap,OM = OE = 0 If tj >Othen Qe = Qb + Mb + E 1 -Cap Else Qe = Qb -Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)6. Else (Qb < Cap)OQ = Qb, RCap = Cap- OQ 7. If Mb 5 RCap,then Oyster Creek Generating Station c-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

8. If t 1 > 0, 0 M = Mb, OE = min RCap -Mb, t Cap 0 Qe = E 1 -OE If Q' > 0,then Calculate Qe, Me with Algorithm A Else Qe =O, Me = E 2 End if Else (t 1 = 0)= (v(T )-Lb) Mb and OE = 0 Me = Mb -OM + E; Qe = 0 End if 9. Else (Mb > RCap)OE= 0 If t 1>0, then OM=RCap, Q'e=Mb--OM+El Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A 10. Else (t, = 0)Md = [(v(Tl)-Lb Mb If Md > RCap, then Om= RCap Q'= Md -OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM = Md Me=Mb-O M+E and Qe=0 End if End if End if End if 11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kn [kb + 2 km + ke 4 where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = density at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.If Ikn -kn-l[ > E andn < N where N = max number of iterations, and E is a convergence criterion, then Oyster Creek Generating Station C-l1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn.End if Computation of unit problem is now complete.

Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.

13. If Qe + Me > (L-W) LN then L)The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB = Qe + Me (--W) .LN L, where W is the width of the upstream intersection.

To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1 -> 0 ,where M is the metering factor (over all movements).(E + S)-This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb VQ QY e shown, Qb Cap, with t 1 > 0 and a queue of Qe length, Q'e, formed by that portion of Mb and E that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could v not discharge due to inadequate capacity.

That is, Mb Qb + Mb + E" > Cap. This queue length, V L3 Q'e = Qb + Mb + El -Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current TI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the til t [ queue within the TI. A portion of the entering T I vehicles, E3 = E L, will likely join the queue. This 4 TI'analysis calculates t 3 , Qe and Me for the input values of L, TI, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Qe *When t, > 0 and Qb - Cap: Define: Le = Q'e L* From the sketch, L 3 = v(TI -t 1 -t 3) = L -(Qe + E 3) Lv LN LN" Substituting E 3 = L E yields: -vt 3 + L3 E v-- = L -v(TI -t,) -Le .Recognizing that TI TI LN the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain: Oyster Creek Generating Station C-12 KLD EngineerinR, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

[v -E ] suchthat 0<<t 3 TI-tl If the denominator, v -0, set t 3 = TI -t 1.I TI LNJ t 3 _t_+_t3 Then, Qe = Q'e + E Me = E 1 The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed.

Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.

Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm Oyster Creek Generating Station C-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.

The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:

Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping).

After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes.

It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.Oyster Creek Generating Station C-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary:

Table C-3)Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.Figure B-i depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions";

each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,[To ,T 2], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function.

The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.As indicated in Figure B-i, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function.

These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T1 1 -T 2 , which lies within the session duration, [T 0 ,1T 2]. This "burn time", T 1 -To, is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To 0 , and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T 2 .At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.Additional details are presented in Appendix B.Oyster Creek Generating Station C-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates.

The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.Step 1 The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location.

The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary.Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Transient, employment, and special facility data were obtained from Exelon and from Google Imagery.Step 3 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.Step 4 The results of a telephone survey of households within the EPZ were obtained from Exelon to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population.

This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.

Step 5 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software (see Section 1.3) developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 3). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description.

Traffic signal timings were input accordingly.

The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.Oyster Creek Generating Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 6 The EPZ is subdivided into 20 ERPAs. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of ERPAs) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.

The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions.

Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.

Step 7 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.Step 8 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines.

DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified.

The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.

The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 9 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined.

The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion.

This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions: " The results are satisfactory; or* The input stream must be modified accordingly.

Oyster Creek Generating Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 10 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.

These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.Step 11 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 10. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.Step 12 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis.

Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.Step 13 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated.

This process was automated through the UNITES user interface.

For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.Step 14 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results are available, quality control procedures are used to assure the results are consistent, dynamic routing is reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks are addressed properly.Step 15 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes are used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent Oyster Creek Generating Station D-3 KID Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.

Step 16 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.

Step 17 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed.

An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.

Oyster Creek Generating Station D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 1 4 Step 9 Examine Prototype Evacuation Case using EVAN and DYNEV II Output Results Satisfactory I Step 10 Modify Evacuation Destinations and/or Develop Traffic Control Treatments IStep 11 Modify Database to Reflect Changes to Prototype Evacuation Case Step 12 I Establish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation Routes and Update DYNEV-11 Database H IStep 13 Generate DYNEV-11 Input Streams for All Evacuation Cases 1 Step 14 I Use DYNEV-11 Average Speed Output to Compute ETE for Transit and Special Facility Routes IStep 15 Use DYNEV-11 Results to Estimate Transit and Special Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates IStep 16 Documentation Ir Step 17 Complete ETE Criteria Checklist Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0