RA-14-033, TR-629, Rev. 0, Oyster Creek Generating Station, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report. Page 7-1 Through Page 7-33

TR-629, Rev. 0, Oyster Creek Generating Station, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report. Page 7-1 Through Page 7-33

ML14101A175
Person / Time
Site:	Oyster Creek
Issue date:	03/20/2014
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Exelon Generation Co, NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
RA-14-033, TMI-14-048 TR-629, Rev 0
Download: ML14101A175 (33)

Text

7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover 36 regions within the OCGS EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regions for all Evacuation Scenarios.

The ETE of the 2-mile region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the Evacuation Regions considered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.

7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation"Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in ERPAs for which an Advisory to Evacuate has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.The ETE for the OCGS EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in ERPAs outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.

Similarly, it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 136,138 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.

See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the OCGS location, has the potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. ERPAs comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately.

2. ERPAs comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the two mile region is cleared.Oyster Creek Generating Station 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate when approximately 90% of the 2 mile region evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile region boundary.5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.

7.3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-9Figure 7-9 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ (Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5): The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.

However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

• Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);* Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, 1 h, 3 h); and* Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.

These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.

Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.

Figure 7-3 displays the developing congestion within the EPZ just 30 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE). At this time, the main thoroughfares on the barrier islands are operating at LOS F since approximately 30% of the large transient and employee population has mobilized.

Congestion is also exhibited in the routes servicing the densely populated areas of the EPZ -Ocean Acres (ERPA 8), Forked River (ERPA 6) and Beachwood (ERPA 10).Oyster Creek Generating Station 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 At two hours after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays fully-developed congestion throughout the study area with LOS F along every major evacuation route, except the GSP. The entrance ramps to the GSP are bottlenecks which meter vehicles as they enter the GSP; the main thoroughfare of the GSP is operating at LOS C or better throughout most of the EPZ. Also, at this time, external traffic on the GSP has been stopped by access control. Over ninety percent of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips and 40% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. All population centers and major evacuation routes experience heavy congestion.

At 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-5, congestion is beginning to migrate away from OCGS. At this time, all people have completed mobilizing and have begun their evacuation trips, and 65% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion persists on the mainland, although slightly dissipated.

Congestion has cleared within Island Beach State Park and Seaside Park; however pronounced congestion persists for the entire length of Long Beach Island within the EPZ. Long Beach Island only has I evacuation route (Route 72) which travels directly into the highly congested EPZ. Island Beach State Park and Seaside Park, however, can continue northbound on Route 35 and bypass much of the congestion in the EPZ. .. Note that Forked River and Waretown -both within the 2-mile radius of the plant -are still experiencing pronounced congestion 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> after the ATE. Route 9 -the major evacuation route for both of these population centers -is essentially gridlocked northbound and southbound to the EPZ boundary.

As a result, vehicles trying to access Route 9 from Forked River and Waretown are unable to.At 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> and 45 minutes after the ATE, Figure 7-6 shows that congestion has dissipated significantly; Toms River and the 2-mile region (the last of the congestion in Forked River and Waretown cleared 5 minutes earlier at 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> and 40 minutes after the ATE) are now clear of congestion.

At this time, 84% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion persists along Whiting Lacey Road, Dover Road and Route 9 to the north of OCGS, and along Route 9, the GSP, Route 554 and Route 72 south of OCGS. Long Beach Island is still completely congested due to the amount of seasonal residents and only one evacuation route (Route 72)out of the area, as discussed above.At 7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br /> after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-7, congestion continues to dissipate north of OCGS. At this time, 93% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion remains on Long Beach Blvd, Route 9, the GSP, and Route 72 south of OCGS as vehicles from Long Beach Island continue to queue along these roads. Long Beach Island north of Harvey Cedars is clear of congestion.

At 8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br /> after the ATE (Figure 7-8) the EPZ north and northwest of OCGS is clear of traffic congestion.

At this time, 98% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Long Beach Island is now clear of congestion.

Route 72 westbound and the GSP southbound continue to operate at LOS F from the remaining Long Beach Island evacuees.At 8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br /> and 45 minutes after the ATE (Figure 7-9) the EPZ is nearly clear of congestion.

The last roadway to clear within the EPZ is Route 72 westbound.

The last vehicle crosses the EPZ boundary 25 minutes later at 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br /> and 10 minutes after the ATE. The last of the traffic Oyster Creek Generating Station 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 congestion in the Shadow Region clears at 9:20, while the entire link-node analysis network (extends to the interchange of the GSP and Route 9 south of the OCGS) clears at 10:35.7.4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-10 through Figure 7-23. These figures indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions.

One figure is presented for each scenario considered.

As shown in Figure 7-10, the shape of the evacuation plot is indicative of the congestion patterns discussed in Section 7.3. Vehicles begin to evacuate the area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase).

When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.As discussed in Section 7.3, the Entire EPZ, including the 2-Mile region is heavily congested.

The rate of egress for the 2-Mile Region has a long "tail" as a result of severe congestion (gridlock essentially) beyond the 2-Mile Region which inhibits the evacuation of the area. The slopes of the 5-Mile Region and Entire EPZ curves are essentially constant after the first hour as the rate of egress is dictated by the available roadway capacity in the EPZ. Finally, when congestion begins to clear after about 7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br /> (Figure 7-7), the Entire EPZ curve flattens and gradually becomes horizontal as the last of the congestion along Route 72, the GSP and Route 9 clears.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Results Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 36 Evacuation Regions and all 14 Evacuation Scenarios.

Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile region for both staged and un-staged keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles. The tables are organized as follows: i I Tabl Cotet ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-3 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

7-4 ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the Oyster Creek Generating Station 7-4 Evacuation Time Estimate KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Region with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.

The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-9.Congestion exists throughout the EPZ, but migrates away from the plant during the course of the evacuation; this is reflected in the ETE statistics: " The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region RO0 (2-mile region) are approximately 35 to 75 minutes shorter than Region R02 (5-mile region) and generally range between 2:20 (hr:min) and 2:50 (higher for snow). The 100th percentile ETE for Region RO0 are generally dictated by mobilization time -4:00 for good weather and rain, 6:00 for snow.* The 9 0 th percentile ETE for Region R02 (5-mile region) is approximately 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> shorter (on average) than Region R03 (full EPZ) due to the prevalence of traffic congestion beyond the 5-mile radius, and range between 3:05 and 4:05. The 100th percentile ETE for Region R02 are on average 90 minutes longer than the 901h percentile ETE and range between 4:35 and 6:15." The 90th percentile ETE for Region R03 (full EPZ) range between 4:55 and 7:20. The 1 0 0 th percentile ETE for Region R03 range between 6:45 and 10:40.Comparison of Scenarios 3 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -a holiday with an influx of beachgoers

-has little impact (at most a 15 minute increase) on the ETE for the 9 0 th percentile.

As discussed in Section 7.3 and shown in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-9, the barrier islands are heavily congested.

The 90th percentile ETE is dictated by the available roadway capacity as the evacuating vehicle demand greatly exceeds capacity.

Thus, the additional 967 vehicles present for the special event do not significantly impact the 9 0 th percentile.

The 1 0 0 th percentile ETE, however, increases by as much as 55 minutes.Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane northbound on the GSP from the interchange with Lacey Road to the interchange with Route 70-does have a material impact on 90th percentile ETE for keyhole regions with wind towards the north and northeast to the EPZ boundary (Regions R13 through R16 and R26), with up to 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 55 minute increases in ETE. The 1 0 0 th percentile ETE increase by as much as 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />. Wind towards the north carries the plume over Toms River and surrounding areas, which rely heavily on the GSP northbound.

With a lane closed on the GSP northbound, the capacity is reduced by a third, increasing congestion and prolonging ETE.The results of the roadway impact scenario indicate that events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a lane on the GSP, could significantly impact ETE. State and local police could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming the GSP. All efforts should be made to remove the blockage on the GSP, particularly within the first 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> of the evacuation.

Oyster Creek Generating Station 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 7.6 Staged Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R27 through R36 are the same geographic areas as Regions R02 and R04 through R12, respectively.

The times shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 are when the 2-mile region is 90% clear and 100% clear, respectively.

The purpose of these tables is to show the impact on the ETE for the 2-mile region of evacuating people beyond 2 miles.To determine whether the staged evacuation strategy is worthy of consideration, it must be shown that the ETE for the 2-mile region can be reduced without significantly affecting the exposure of those in the region between 2 miles and 5 miles. When evacuating the 5-mile Region (Region R02), the ETE for the 2-mile region is as much as 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 40 minutes higher than when evacuating just the 2-mile region (R01); compare R01 and R02 in Table 7-3.In addition, when evacuating the 2-mile radius and downwind to 5 miles with wind toward the north (R04 through R06), the ETE for the 2-mile region increases by up to 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 40 minutes. The evacuation of the densely populated communities in ERPA 6 causes significant traffic congestion along Route 9 northbound and Lacey Rd westbound toward the GSP. Route 9 and Lacey Rd are also used by evacuees from Forked River, which is in the 2-mile region. Those vehicles evacuating from ERPA 6 slow the egress of vehicles from Forked River, resulting in longer ETE for the 2-mile region. Thus, staging the evacuation to allow the evacuees from the 2-mile region to clear prior to evacuating ERPA 6 would benefit evacuees from Forked River. Note that Regions R28 through R30 are staged evacuations of Region R04 through R06. For Regions R28 through R30, ERPA 6 does not evacuate until the 2-mile region is 90% evacuated.

Staging the evacuation of ERPA 6 reduces the ETE for the 2-mile region by as much as 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 35 minutes. The 100th percentile ETE for the 2-mile region is also significantly increased (by up to 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br />) when the wind is blowing to the north.To determine the effect of staged evacuation on residents beyond the 2-mile Region, Regions R02 and R04 through R12 are compared to Regions R27 through R36, respectively, in Table 7-1.The ETE for most keyholes increases when staging evacuation with some regions increasing up to 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 25 minutes. As shown in Figure 5-5, staging the evacuation causes a significant"spike" (sharp increase) in mobilization (trip-generation rate) of evacuating vehicles:

nearly 80 percent of the evacuating vehicles between 2 and 5 miles who have sheltered in place while residents within 2 miles evacuated, begin their evacuation trip over a 15 minute timeframe.

This spike oversaturates evacuation routes, causing significant traffic congestion, rerouting and prolonged ETE.In summary, a staged evacuation protective action strategy could benefit those people evacuating from within the 2-mile region when wind is blowing to the north (over ERPA 6) or when evacuating the full 5-mile region (R02). Although staged evacuation can be disadvantageous to those people living beyond 2 miles from the plant, it does expedite the evacuation of those evacuees from within the 2-mile region (particularly Forked River) under certain circumstances.

Oyster Creek Generating Station 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC guidance calls for the 90th percentile).

The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table may then be identified using the following procedure:

1. Identify the applicable Scenario:* Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)" Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend* Time of Day" Midday" Evening* Weather Condition" Good Weather" Rain" Snow* Special Event" Holiday with beachgoers" Road Closure (One lane on GSP northbound)

• Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered" Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:

• The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for rain apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for snow apply.0 The seasons are defined as follows: " Summer assumes that public schools are not in session." Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region: Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0

• Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction).

This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:

towards N, NNE, NE, ...* Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are given below:* 2 Miles (Region R01)* To 5 Miles (Regions R02, and R04 through R12)* To EPZ Boundary (Regions R03, R13 through R26)* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on the distance that the selected Region extends from the OCGS. Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.

Then, for the Scenario identified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 through Table 7-4 are labeled with the Scenario numbers.Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the Scenario number defined in Step 1.* Identify the row in the table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in Step 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.

Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:

• Sunday, August 10th at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is toward the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radius and downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).

• The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population from within the impacted Region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 90th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows: 1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors.

However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction toward the NE and read Region R15.Oyster Creek Generating Station 7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and Region R15. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R15; it contains the ETE value of 5:25.Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Region Good I an Go an Good Good Rain ISnow God Rain Snow Go pca oda Weather ____Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact_______ _____ _______ _____ Entire 2-Mile Region, S-Mile Region, and EPZ _________________

R01 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 R02 3:40 3:45 3:05 3:35 3:20 3:20 3:40 j4:05 3:05 3:50 4:00 3:10 3:15 4:05 R03 6:30 7:05 6:35 7:20 j 6:10 5:40 j6:05 j6:50 j5:15 5:40 6:30 4:55 6:35 6:50______2-Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 3:25 3:35 3:15 3:40 3:15 3:20 3:35 3:55 3:05 3:45 3:50 3:10 3:15 3:40 ROS 3:30 4:00 3:30 3:55 3:20 3:30 4:10 4:10 3:15 3:35 4:20 3:10 3:30 3:35 R06 3:30 4:00 3:30 3:55 3:20 3:30 4:10 4:10 3:15 3:35 4:20 3:10 3:30 3:35 R07 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 RO8 2:25 2:35 2:15 2:25 2:15 2:20 2:30 3:30 2:10 2:20 3:20 2:10 2:15 2:25 R09 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:25 2:30 3:20 2:15 2:25 3:15 2:20 2:25 2:35 R1O 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:25 2:30 3:20 2:15 2:25 3:15 2:20 2:25 2:35 R11 2:20 2:30 2:20 2:20 2:30 2:20 2:25 2:55 2:15 2:20 2:50 2:20 2:20 2:20 R12 2:15 2:20 2:15 2:15 2:20 2:15 2:20 2:50 2:10 2:15 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:40______ -Mile Ring and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R13 5:10 5:50 5:10 5:45 5:00 4:55 5:25 6:05 4:50 5:20 5:55 4:40 5:15 6:05 R14 4:55 5:35 5:00 5:30 4:50 4:55 5:20 5:55 4:45 5:15 5:50 4:30 5:05 5:55 R15 5:05 5:25 5:00 5:25 4:25 5:00 5:20 5:50 4:40 5:20 5:45 4:25 5:00 5:45 R16 3:15 4:00 3:20 3:40 3:15 3:20 3:35 4:00 3:00 3:45 4:20 3:10 3:30 3:50 R17 3:45 4:15 4:05 4:40 3:50 3:05 3:25 4:00 2:50 3:30 4:15 3:05 4:10 3:55 R18 4:45 5:40 5:30 6:20 4:50 3:45 4:15 4:15 3:25 3:50 4:30 3:15 5:30 4:55 R19 6:20 7:15 6:55 7:35 6:10 5:05 5:35 6:30 4:30 5:00 5:40 4:15 6:55 6:20 R20 6:50 7:35 7:15 8:05 6:30 5:25 5:40 6:50 5:05 5:40 6:00 4:20 7:15 7:00 R21 5:25 6:20 5:10 6:00 4:40 4:40 5:10 6:05 4:30 5:00 5:50 4:15 5:10 5:40 R22 4:20 4:40 4:10 4:55 4:00 4:00 4:40 5:00 3:55 4:20 4:45 3:50 4:10 4:35 R23 4:35 4:55 14:25 5:05 4:05 4:05 4:30 5:00 3:50 4:10 4:50 3:50 4:25 4:50 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact R24 3:25 4:10 3:35 3:45 3:20 3:35 4:05 4:30 3:15 3:40 4:10 3:15 3:45 3:50 R25 3:50 3:50 3:25 4:15 3:30 3:40 3:40 4:15 3:10 4:00 4:10 3:20 3:40 4:00 R26 5:05 5:45 5:20 5:40 4:55 5:00 5:30 6:10 4:50 5:20 5:55 4:35 5:20 7:00 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R27 4:00 4:10 4:00 4:05 3:55 3:55 4:20 5:10 3:55 4:00 5:10 3:55 4:00 4:05 R28 3:55 4:05 3:50 4:00 3:55 3:45 4:10 5:05 3:50 3:55 5:00 3:50 3:50 4:15 R29 4:05 4:20 4:05 4:15 4:05 4:00 4:20 5:20 4:00 4:15 5:15 4:00 4:05 4:05 R30 4:05 4:20 4:05 4:15 4:05 4:00 4:20 5:20 4:00 4:15 5:15 4:00 4:05 4:05 R31 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 R32 3:25 3:35 3:20 3:35 3:25 3:25 3:35 4:45 3:25 3:35 4:45 3:30 3:25 3:25 R33 3:25 3:35 3:30 3:35 3:40 3:30 3:30 4:40 3:30 3:30 4:40 3:35 3:30 3:25 R34 3:25 3:35 3:30 3:35 3:40 3:30 3:30 4:40 3:30 3:30 4:40 3:35 3:30 3:25 R35 2:45 2:55 2:45 2:55 2:55 2:45 2:50 3:50 2:45 2:50 3:50 2:55 2:50 2:45 R36 2:35 2:45 2:35 2:45 2:50 2:40 2:45 3:35 2:30 2:40 3:30 2:45 2:35 2:50 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Rein Go an Go an Good Good IRain Snow God Rain Snow Weathe Eventa Rmpacta weather Weather Weather Winter ItWeather Weather Ever Imme Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ROI 14:00 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:0014:0514:0516:0514:00 4:0016:0014:0014:00 4:05 R02 j5:00 5:40 4:45 5:20 4:45 j4:45 5:25 6:15 j4:35 5:25 6:05 4:35 j4:45 6:15 R03 j9:10 10:05 9:25 10:40 8:30 7:40 8:20 9:35 7:20 8:00 J9:05 6:45 9:25 9:35 2-Mile Ring and Keyhole to S Miles R04 5:00 5:25 4:45 5:25 4:40 4:40 4:55 6:15 4:45 5:15 6:05 4:30 4:45 5:40 ROS 4:25 5:15 4:35 5:00 4:15 4:20 4:55 6:05 4:20 4:40 6:05 4:15 4:35 4:35 R06 4:25 5:15 4:35 5:00 4:15 4:20 4:55 6:05 4:20 4:40 6:05 4:15 4:35 4:35 R07 4:00 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R08 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 R09 4:25 5:10 4:35 5:20 4:40 4:45 5:00 6:10 4:05 4:25 6:05 4:10 4:35 4:45 R10 4:25 5:10 4:35 5:20 4:40 4:45 5:00 6:10 4:05 4:25 6:05 4:10 4:35 4:45 R11 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:15 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 R12 4:10 4:10 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:25 e-Mile Ring and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R13 7:35 8:20 7:25 8:10 7:00 7:30 7:55 9:15 7:05 8:00 8:55 6:35 7:30 9:00 R14 7:25 8:20 7:30 8:20 7:05 7:05 8:05 9:00 7:10 7:55 8:45 6:35 7:30 8:30 RIS 7:15 8:05 7:15 7:55 7:05 7:00 7:45 8:40 6:55 7:30 8:40 6:30 7:15 8:30 R16 4:45 5:40 5:05 5:40 4:45 4:45 5:10 6:15 4:35 5:10 6:10 4:35 6:00 5:50 R17 5:50 6:25 6:10 7:00 6:15 4:45 5:10 6:15 4:35 5:10 6:10 4:35 6:10 5:50 R18 6:50 8:00 8:05 9:05 7:10 5:45 6:05 6:55 5:30 5:45 7:05 4:55 8:05 6:50 R19 8:35 9:40 9:05 10:05 8:15 7:20 8:05 9:25 6:40 7:15 8:15 6:10 9:20 8:40 R20 9:00 10:05 9:25 10:15 8:30 7:40 7:55 9:35 7:20 7:50 8:35 6:20 9:25 9:15 R21 7:30 8:45 7:20 8:10 6:55 6:50 7:35 8:50 6:40 7:10 8:25 6:20 7:20 8:05 R22 6:30 6:50 6:20 7:15 6:00 6:00 6:40 7:50 5:50 6:10 7:15 5:35 6:20 6:30 R23 6:45 7:00 6:20 7:20 6:05 6:15 6:40 7:50 550 6:15 7:35 5:40 6:20 6:50 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact R24 5:00 5:50 5:20 5:20 4:30 5:00 5:40 6:45 4:45 5:00 6:10 4:30 5:20 6:25 R25 5:35 5:35 5:15 6:20 4:50 5:30 5:55 6:35 4:45 6:00 6:10 4:55 5:45 6:20 R26 7:35 8:20 7:35 8:20 7:05 7:30 8:00 9:20 7:15 8:00 8:55 6:35 7:35 9:35 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R27 5:05 5:40 5:25 5:35 5:10 5:20 5:55 6:25 5:10 5:25 6:30 4:45 5:25 5:35 R28 5:00 5:25 4:45 5:25 4:50 4:50 5:35 6:15 4:55 5:15 6:10 4:40 4:50 6:20 R29 4:45 5:15 4:35 5:00 4:35 4:30 5:05 6:05 4:30 4:50 6:05 4:30 4:35 4:45 R30 4:45 5:15 4:35 5:00 4:35 4:30 5:05 6:05 4:30 4:50 6:05 4:30 4:35 4:45 R31 4:00 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R32 4:05 4:15 4:05 4:15 4:05 4:05 4:20 6:05 4:05 4:10 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 R33 5:15 5:35 5:20 5:30 5:05 5:10 5:10 6:30 5:05 5:10 6:25 5:00 5:20 5:15 R34 5:15 5:35 5:20 5:30 5:05 5:10 5:10 6:30 5:05 5:10 6:25 5:00 5:20 5:15 R35 4:15 4:55 4:30 4:55 4:15 4:15 4:35 6:05 4:10 4:30 6:05 4:15 4:30 4:15 R36 4:10 4:10 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:05 4:05 4:10 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend Midee Midweek Weekend Midweek_ Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good IRain Good Good Ri I nw Good Ri Snw Good Special Roadway Wete ete ete ete 1 Weather IWeather Event Impact Un-staged Evacuation and 5-Mile Regions R02 3:45 4:30 3:35 4:10 3:30 3:35 4:00 4:00 3:35 4:00 4:00 3:30 3:35 4:05 Un-staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Miles R04 3:50 4:15 3:40 4:20 3:30 3:40 4:00 4:00 3:35 4:00 4:00 3:30 3:40 4:00 ROS 3:45 4:25 3:45 4:15 3:35 3:40 4:00 4:00 3:35 3:50 4:05 3:30 3:40 3:50 R06 3:45 4:25 3:45 4:15 3:35 3:40 4:00 4:00 3:35 3:50 4:05 3:30 3:40 3:50 R07 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 ROB 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 R09 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 RIO 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 R11 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:25 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 R12 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 Staged Evacuation Mile Region R27 2:45 3:35 2:45 3:00 2:40 2:40 3:20 1 3:50 [ 2:35 2:50 3:45 2:40 2:40 2:45 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R28 2:40 3:35 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:35 3:10 3:40 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 R29 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 R30 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 R31 2:35 2:50 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:30 2:20 2:35 3:20 2:25 2:30 2:35 R32 2:40 2:55 2:40 2:50 2:40 2:40 2:50 3:45 2:35 2:45 3:45 2:35 2:40 2:40 R33 2:40 2:55 2:40 2:50 2:35 2:40 2:50 3:45 2:35 2:45 3:45 2:35 2:40 2:40 R34 2:40 2:55 2:40 2:50 2:35 2:40 2:50 3:45 2:35 2:45 3:45 2:35 2:40 2:40 R35 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:50 3:35 2:25 2:40 3:25 2:25 2:30 2:35 R36 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:50 3:35 2:25 2:40 3:25 2:25 2:30 2:35 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend MidUned Midweek Weekend 2- Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend R02.:2 [] 5:10 j U 4:0 :5 [ 41 j410 445 60 [J]4:05]4:40 6:00 Ili4:00]B JlB 4:15 j4:40 Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Ran Good Ran Good Good Rain Snow Weathe Weathe Snw God Secil Roda Weather Weather Weather Weather I Wahreter Ent Impact Un-staged Evacuation and K-Mile Regions R01 4:25 4:55 4:0015 5:00 4:10 4:0510 4:45 16:05 4:05 4:35 6:00 4:00 4:15 4:35 R02 4:20 5:10 4:10 4:55 4:10 4:10 4:45 6:05 4:05 4:40 6:00 4:00 4:15 4:40 Un-staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Miles R04 4:2 5 :05 4:15 5:00 4:10 4:10 4:45 6:05 4:05 4:35 6:00 4:00 4:15 4:35 R07 4:20 5:05 4:25 4:55 4:10 4:10 4:50 6:05 4:05 4:30 6:00 4:00 4:15 4:30 R06 4:20 5:05 4:25 4:55 4:10 4:10 4:50 6:05 4:05 4:30 6:00 4:00 4:15 4:30 R07 4:00 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 RO8 4:05 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R09 4:05 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R10 4:05 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R11 4:05 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 I6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 I4:00 4:00 4:05 R22 4:05 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 ,4:05 , 6:05 ,4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 Staged Evacuation Mile Region R27 J 4:10 [ 4:30 4:05 J 4:25 4:00 1 4:05 [ 4:45 1 6:05 1 4:00 [ 4:15 6:00 4:00 J 4:05 4:15 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R28 4:10 4:25 4:00 4:15 4:00 4:05 4:40 6:05 4:00 4:10 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:10 R29 4:00 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R30 4:00 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R31 4:00 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R32 4:00 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R33 4:00 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R34 4:00 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R35 4:05 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 R36 4:05 4:05 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 4:05 6:05 4:00 4:00 6:00 4:00 4:00 4:05 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions_________

_________

________ ERIPA _ _ _ _Region Description 11121 3 141 5 161718191 10 1 11 1 12 I 13 I 14 I 1S I 16 117 118 1 19 120 1 ERPA I .......Region Wind Direction Toward: I 11 2 13 4 1 S 16 171 8 9 1 10 11 1 12 1 13 114 1 15 1 16 1 17 1 18 119 120 R04 NNW, N ROS NNE R06 NE, ENE R07 E, ESE, SE R08 SSE, S R09 SSW RIO SW, WSW Rll W, WNW R12 NW Region Wind Direction Toward: R13 N R14 NNE R15 NE R16 ENE, E R17 ESE, SE R18 SSE R19 S R20 SSW J I __I__ __I__ i ___ E ___I__ I I__ I ____ I ___I _I I I-4 .4 4 4 I I I I I I 4--t--I- 4 +/- 4 4 4- ~ 4 1 1 4- t I I______ + I* 4 .4- 4. 4 4 1 *4*I I Ij Oyster Creek Generating Station 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 I ERPA egion Description 1 2 3 4 5 68 9 1 R21 5-Mile Ring R2 Evacatio Timeaio Estimateu EautethnEvcat I ERPA egion Wind Direction Toward: 16 2 I 7 8 9 10 11 R27 5-Mile Ring _ __R28 NNW, N _R29 NNE _.q30 NE, ENE _ _R3l E, ESE, SE 132 SSE, S R33 SSW 134 SW, WSW R35 W, WNW Oyster Creek Generating Station 7-17 Evacuation Time Estimate 12 1 13 1 14 1 15 1 16 1 17 1 18 1 19 120 1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0

/ R S-ile Region j I/~eEP~1[ ]\I I Staged Evacuation:

2-Mile Region & 5 Miles Downwind I I Keyhole: 2-Mile Region & 5 Miles Downwind I I Keyhole: 5-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwind I* Plant Location N Region to be Evacuated:

100% Evacuation E] 20% Shadow Evacuation N Shelter, then Evacuate Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-2. OCGS Shadow Region Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Oyster Creek Generating Station 7-20 Evacuation Time Estimate KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 5 Hours, 45 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 7 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 8 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-9. Congestion Patterns at 8 Hours, 45 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%160 140 to c 120 S-o 100 Lu 80 60> 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 1 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%an C Ui 0 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 2 for Region R03 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90%0 100%UC 0U 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)540 600 Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%EU LU 160 140 120 100 C 80 0 E 60 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 4 for Region R03 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%160 140 hAD c 120 S100 I- 80=P- 60> 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%160 140 to.S 120 4-100 uw -800 60> 40 20-0000040,0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)480 540 Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 6 for Region R03 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%160 140 ba.S 120 ut' 80"o 60 40~ .~0100 20 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%160 140 120 -100 80 60 40 20 0 I V qA C 4M LU I@1A.0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 8 for Region R03 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%160 140.120 4.'U -;r-0. 100 (U z 80 60 4 40 200 20 0., 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 9 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 6 90% a 100%160 140.E- 120 UC0 100 ,,, 80 80_ 60:E> 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)480 540 Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 10 for Region R03 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%160 140 E 120-0 10080-60>. 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%

• 100%an C 4-'U U'U ILl U'U'U a, V'C 0 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)420 480 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 12 for Region R03 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%160 140= 120 100 N 80 E 60 40 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%4-'U 160 140 120 U1 100 80 060 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-23. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 14 for Region R03 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0