ML14101A180

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TR-629, Rev. 0, Oyster Creek Generating Station, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Final Report. Page J-1 Through Page K-40
ML14101A180
Person / Time
Site: Oyster Creek
Issue date: 03/20/2014
From:
KLD Engineering, PC
To:
Exelon Generation Co, NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
RA-14-033, TMI-14-048 TR-629, Rev 0
Download: ML14101A180 (56)
v • d • e


Text

APPENDIX J Representative Inputs to and Outputs from the DYNEV II System

J. REPRESENTATIVE INPUTS TO AND OUTPUTS FROM THE DYNEV II SYSTEM This appendix presents data input to and output from the DYNEV II System. Table J-1 provides the volume and queues for the ten highest volume signalized intersections in the study area.

Refer to Table K-2 and the figures in Appendix K for a map showing the geographic location of each intersection.

Table J-2 provides source (vehicle loading) and destination information for several roadway segments (links) in the analysis network. Refer to Table K-1 and the figures in Appendix K for a map showing the geographic location of each link.

Table J-3 provides network-wide statistics (average travel time, average speed and number of vehicles) for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) for each scenario.

Table J-4 provides statistics (average speed and travel time) for the major evacuation routes -

the GSP and Route 9 - for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1 conditions. Average speeds are low on Route 9 and the GSP northbound for the first 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br />.

Then as congestion dissipates, speeds increase.

Average speeds on Route 9 and the GSP southbound exhibit low speeds for most of the evacuation due to the heavy traffic volume coming from Long Beach Island westbound and then using these roadways to evacuate southbound out of the EPZ.

Table J-5 provides the number of vehicles discharged and the cumulative percent of total vehicles discharged for each link exiting the analysis network, for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1 conditions. Refer to Table K-1 and the figures in Appendix K for a map showing the geographic location of each link.

Figure J-1 through Figure J-14 plot the trip generation time versus the ETE for each of the 14 Scenarios considered. The distance between the trip generation and ETE curves is the travel time. Plots of trip generation versus ETE are indicative of the level of traffic congestion during evacuation. For low population density sites, the curves are close together, indicating short travel times and minimal traffic congestion. For higher population density sites, the curves are farther apart indicating longer travel times and the presence of traffic congestion. As seen in Figure J-1 through Figure J-14, the curves are spatially separated as a result of the pronounced traffic congestion in the EPZ, which was discussed in detail in Section 7.3.

Oyster Creek Generating Station J-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

Table J-1. Characteristics of the Ten Highest Volume Signalized Intersections

£gg Max.

Aproc Toa Turn Inerecio (u

Voum Queue 1298 2,888 23 836 Route 37 and Route 166 TCP -

Actuated 1299 11,727 54 876 7,137 674 TOTAL 21,752 1277 10,350 14 1020 2,422 0

472 Route 70 and Whitesville Rd Actuated 923 7,028 9

TOTAL 19,800 483 6,523 293 1075 6,055 207 994 Route 70 and Route 528 Actuated 1339 5,977 13 TOTAL 18,555 470 10,708 38 TCP-1081 5,631 5

471 Route 70 and Route 571 Act 9

1 1

Actuated 922 1,740 19 TOTAL 18,079 764 4,803 61 458 5,791 498 457 Route 70 and Manchester Blvd Actuated 765 5,582 171 TOTAL 16,176 1277 5,632 0

471 10,354 34 1081 Route 70 and Green Acres Rd Actuated 1082 0

0 TOTAL 15,986 455 71 0

TCP-764 9,692 737 456 Route 70 and Whiting Lacey Rd Actuated4 6,2 128 Actuated 452 6,023 128 TOTAL 15,786 1244 6,096 0

476 8,863 0

475 Route 70 and New Hampshire Blvd Actuated 1328 515 0

TOTAL 15,474 318 12,399 1000 TCP -

319 Route 72 and Route 532 Act 542 2,907 588 Actuated TOTAL 15,306 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

  • sg Max.

Aproc Toa Turn-Inerecio (u

Volume Queue 464 Route 70 and Route 547 463 7,995 TCP -

465 7,305 Actuated 1086 0

TOTAL 15,300 6i2 0

0 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

Table J-2. Sample Simulation Model Input 8065 6,750 69 86 N

8483 3,000 8190 1,700 8003 4,500 317 94 S

8483 3,000 8453 1,700 8927 3,800 550 484 SW 8003 4,500 8758 1,700 8483 3,000 733 225 SW 8003 4,500 8758 1,700 8483 3,000 1787 276 N

8065 6,750 8190 1,700 8483 3,000 962 214 N

8065 6,750 8190 1,700 8805 1,700 1088 33 NE 8483 3,000 8065 6,750 8483 3,000 1236 100 N

8065 6,750 8190 1,700 8190 1,700 1382 8

NW 8065 6,750 8927 3,800 8927 3,800 1556 211 N

8758 1,700 8453 1,700 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

Table J-3. Selected Model Outputs for the Evacuation of the Entire EPZ (Region R03)

Sceai 1

2 3I-I 6

Network-Wide Average Travel Time (Min/Veh-Mi) 7.8 8.6 8.0 9.0 8.0 6.7 7.3 Network-Wide Average 7.7 7.0 7.5 6.7 7.5 9.0 8.2 Speed (mph)

Total Vehicles Exitin Networs 147,757 145,859 147,192 150,138 133,231 129,045 127,790 Exiting Network Network-Wide Average 7.7 6.7 7.3 7.6 6.3 8.0 8.3 Travel Time (Min/Veh-Mi)

Network-Wide Average 7.8 9.0 8.2 7.9 9.6 7.5 7.3 Speed (mph)

Total Vehicles 131,205 125,253 125,705 124,344 113,140 148,840 146,921 Exiting NetworkII Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

Table J-4. Average Speed (mph) and Travel Time (min) for Major Evacuation Routes (Region R03, Scenario 1)

GSP Northbound 41.2 45.1 54.8 27.2 90.7 127.0 91.4 33.3 74.3 38.9 63.5 59.9 41.3 74.6 33.1 1 74.5 33.2 74.6 1 33.1 GSP 41.1 37.0 66.7 14.7 167.8 11.1 222.5 11.3 218.7 13.8 178.6 12.7 193.8 13.1 188.7 13.4 184.6 17.8 139.0 Southbound Route 9 18.3 2.3 467.6 2.0 535.6 2.1 524.9 3.5 314.4 4.7 231.3 8.2 133.4 19.9 55.0 41.7 26.3 42.0 26.1 Northbound Route 9 24.6 5.2 286.3 1.7 852.5 1.6 943.0 1.7 860.5 2.8 535.2 3.8 387.8 3.4 438.9 3.4 437.3 6.9 212.8 Southbound I___

I__________

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

Table J-5. Simulation Model Outputs at Network Exit Links for Region R03, Scenario 1 Cumultive Ehilapes Discared bytho Idiatdsim N etw ork____________

1_______________

2______________

3 4

5 6

7 8

9____

Cumlaiv PecnLfVeilsDshagdbnheIdctdTiek___

4,189 1 8,254 12,312 1 16,369 1 20,434 24,499 1 28,572 1 32,637 36,709 3

4

+

+

27% 1 23%

22%

21%

21%

21%

22%

24%

26%

420 531 1,114 1,602 2,290 3,119 3,989 4,847 5,656 6,411 3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

4%

5%

444 1,023 1,499 2,177 2,769 3,361 3,960 4,585 5,227 421 3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

4%

61 611 1,420 2,525 3,450 4,131 5,124 5,504 5,572 593 0%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

4%

4%

4%

926 2,266 3,572 4,505 5,518 6,818 7,725 8,491 8,637 598 6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

425 1,878 3,159 4,456 5,882 7,087 7,970 8,582 8,647 633 3%

5%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

1358 1,728 4,428 7,128 9,828 12,528 13,656 13,828 13,888 13,892 11%

12%

13%

13%

13%

12%

11%

10%

10%

385 1,423 2,140 2,482 3,122 3,442 3,642 3,702 3,703 1406 3%

4%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

1663 5,463 11,636 17,750 24,309 30,920 37,210 39,106 39,537 39,548 35%

32%

31%

31%

32%

32%

31%

29%

28%

418 1,950 3,503 5,032 6,560 8,088 9,201 9,586 9,614 1686 3%

5%

6%

6%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

1692 827 1,706 2,749 3,673 3,749 3,749 3,749 3,749 3,749 5%

5%

5%

5%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)

-Trip Generation

-ETE 100%

  1. A_,

80%

S60%

0 4.,,

20%

0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-1. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 1)

ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)

Trip Generation -mETE 100%

80%

" 640%

4-0 a.4 0

40%

C SO 20%

0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-2. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)

Trip Generation ETE 100%

ta 6I 1

80%

IV S60%

0o6 40%

20%

a.

0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 Elapsed Time (min) 480 540 600 660 Figure J-3. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 3)

ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)

Trip Generation 1ETE 100%

IA 80%

,~60%

0 40%

20%

ca 0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-4. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)

Trip Generation

,ETE 100%

I/1 80%

1-W$

0 0%

S40%

4-8 20%

a'a-0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-5. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 5)

ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)

-Trip Generation mETE 100%

I/n 80%

Z 60%

0 2 0%

4.-

20%

0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-6. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 6)

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)

Trip Generation m

ETE 100%

80%

40 0

I-20%

a-0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-7. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)

ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)

-Trip Generation

-ETE 100%

IA 80%

60%

0 I,-

40%

C 20%

C.

0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-8. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)

Trip Generation m

ETE 100%

IA"o80%

60%

0 o

40%

20%

0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-9. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 9)

ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)

Trip Generation

-ETE 100%

IA"o 80%

"* 60%

0 8 40%

4..

C 20%

0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-10. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)

Trip Generation ETE 100%

-1 80%

S60%

4-4.

0 0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-11. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)

ETE and Trip Generation Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)

Trip Generation ETE 100%

IA 80%

E 60%

0I,-

o 40%

20%

a-0%

1 0

60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-12. ETE and Trip Generation: Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather (Scenario 12)

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)

Trip Generation ETE 100%

80%

60%

20 I-1.

O0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-13. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Weekend, Evening, Good Weather, Special Event (Scenario 13)

ETE and Trip Generation Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)

Trip Generation

-ETE 100%

4A 80%

o 60%

I,-

0 40%

20%

a.

0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 Elapsed Time (min)

Figure J-14. ETE and Trip Generation: Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)

J-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate J-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 0

APPENDIX K Evacuation Roadway Network

K. EVACUATION ROADWAY NETWORK As discussed in Section 1.3, a link-node analysis network was constructed to model the roadway network within the study area. Figure K-1 provides an overview of the link-node analysis network. The figure has been divided up into 54 more detailed figures (Figure K-2 through Figure K-55) which show each of the links and nodes in the network.

The analysis network was calibrated using the observations made during the field survey conducted in November 2013. Table K-1 lists the characteristics of each roadway section modeled in the ETE analysis. Each link is identified by its road name and the upstream and downstream node numbers. The geographic location of each link can be observed by referencing the grid map number provided in Table K-1. The roadway type identified in Table K-1 is generally based on the following criteria:

Freeway:

limited access highway, 2 or more lanes in each direction, high free flow speeds Freeway ramp: ramp on to or off of a limited access highway Major arterial: 3 or more lanes in each direction Minor arterial: 2 or more lanes in each direction Collector: single lane in each direction Local roadways: single lane in each direction, local roads with low free flow speeds The term, "No. of Lanes" in Table K-1 identifies the number of lanes that extend throughout the length of the link.

Many links have additional lanes on the immediate approach to an intersection (turn pockets); these have been recorded and entered into the input stream for the DYNEV II System.

As discussed in Section 1.3, lane width and shoulder width were not physically measured during the road survey. Rather, estimates of these measures were based on visual observations and recorded images.

Table K-2 identifies each node in the network that is controlled and the type of control (stop sign, yield sign, pre-timed signal, actuated signal, traffic control point) at that node.

Uncontrolled nodes are not included in Table K-2. The location of each node can be observed by referencing the grid map number provided.

Oyster Creek Generating Station K-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

Figure K-1. Oyster Creek Link-Node Analysis Network Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-2. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 1 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-3. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 2 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-4. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 3 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-5. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 4 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

Figure K-8. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 7 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-9. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 8 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-11. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 10 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-20. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 19 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-22. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 21 K-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-23. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 22 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-30. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 29 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-32. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 31 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-34. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 33 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Figure K-35. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 34 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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ERPA 11 313 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate Link-Node Analysis Network Figu 0

0.25 0.5 Miles Grid 35 Figure K-36. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 35 K-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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ERPA4 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate Link-Node Analysis Network Figures Grid 36 0.25 0.5 Miles V3.I'A 3'31 Figure K-37. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 36 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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N 92, Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate Link-Node Analysis Network FigL Grid 37 0

0.25 0.5Miles Figure K-38. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 37 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate Link-Node Analysis Network Figure Grid 38 0

025 0.5 Miles Figure K-39. Link-Node Analysis Network - Grid 38 Oyster Creek Generating Station Evacuation Time Estimate K-40 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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