ML19325F110
| ML19325F110 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 09/17/1984 |
| From: | Mccreless T Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards |
| To: | Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19325C113 | List:
|
| References | |
| FOIA-88-451 ACRS-GENERAL, NUDOCS 8911140159 | |
| Download: ML19325F110 (68) | |
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f ACRS Merters 12, 1984 LIST OF ACES SU!COM'!TTEE MEET!!!GS SCHEDU'.ED THRO
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Attached is a list of public ACR$ Subcommittee meetings currently sche i
l If you are listed and cannot attend a meeting, or if you are not listed Most motels ar.d j
but would like to a: tend, please advise the ACRS Office.
r h:tels ree,uire a gaarenteed reservation if arrival is to be af ter 6:00 p.m.
Cancellation of guaranteed reservations must be made beforl scheduled day of arrival.
Please advise the ACR$ Of fice as seen as involves forfeiture of the cost.
p ssible, if you cannot ettend a meeting f or which you are listed, 50 the reservati:r. ca* te :an:eiled in suf ficient tire.
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Tho a s G. I'.cCreless l
Assistant Executive Director f er Te:hnical Activities l
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Heet Creek Generating Station Unit.1, Date to be determined (Wovember/Decen.ber),
ine subcom ittee will discuss certain design Yalem county, w tv zenawy).
changes tne nocificatiordfor the Hope Creek Generating Station.
Attendance by the following is anticipated:
Dr. Siess Dr. Dkrent Dr. Kerr Seisnic Design of Piping, Date to be determined (November /Dec' ember), Washington, K tigne),
ine Subcommittee w"' review draf t reports issued by the NRc TTping Fevie.e Committee on Dyns4c Leeds and Lead Cor.binations and Seismic Design requirerents of piping.
Attendance by the following is anticipated:
Dr. Siets Dr. Dkrent Dr. Shewmon Mr. Etherington C r. I'.t rk Oc.biree GISS AR !!/ Reliability and Prebabilistic Assessrent, December 4 and 5, ceterninec (Major /5tvic). W O a.c..
This will be the D ia, iccer.en te :t sec:nd i. t se its cf.teti*gs to review tre Genere) Electric Standard Safety Analysis Re;crt te ertend the Tinti Design Approval so that it will be applicable to future plants.
The meeting will focus on the GESSAR 11 trettment of severe accidents ar.d the Frobabilistic Risk Assessrent perforred in connection with tr.e GISSAF. :: (e s i ga..
Er.ternel events will be consicered.
Lodging will be 6.ncant e d '.t '.t r.
Auendance by t,te icilcWing is anticipated:
Mr. Michelson Dr. Chrent "r. !!ersele Mr. Wylie Mr. Ette ringten Inferstres t.c St:grity Cecerter 12, li!!,1717 K Street, n', Washingten 0
- 5cnitt;t.M. ';Ni t/ j, hi* 4.n., Rec-1016.
The Subcor.mi'*ee wili revits fert; fett.-et ':
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i Dr. Dkrant Dr. Mark l
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it.e Succc.-.inee will discuss L'estin; house Acvanceo Pressurized Water Reactor
- ntegrated Cent-c1 and Prctection Systen.
Att,tndance by tt.e following is t r.ti ci; s t e d:
Dr. " ark
- r. Kerr "r. Michelsen
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Lee Alones Bettenal laboratory to setherteed to prerade this asetetenee.
withset 1sterforense se 305 rene, as totabereable Work for Other poderai Acessies (Liettestes 95).
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l This order prevides FY84 funding for initiation of this project as delineated in the attached staten.nt of work. An NRC Form 189 based on the attached stat.sent of wort sheuld be submitted, in 5 c pies to: Office of Nuclear Meterial safety and Safeguards (Atta Program Support tranch) within 30 days of the date of this order, f
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- 2. Calculations of sc-sov6s l
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- 3. Calculation of Explos Weso4:
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- 4. Calculations of season explosives for Part 20 and 100 releases cost 15 k
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9 1,' objective of Praposed Work
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===4.
Background===
in 1979, the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory conducted a study i
of the consequences of sabotage of nonpower reactors (NPRs). It was concluded that, within the constraints of this study, only j
one NPR had any potential for the release of significant amounts i
I of fission product materials in the event of sabotage. Because of terrorist activities in other parts of the world, concerns of j
the ACRS about macipulation of reactor control systems, and concerns of a public interest group about the effects of incendiary devices on reactor components, this information I
should be supplemented with further technical information.
b.
Objective The objective of this work is to provide the NRC with technical information on the effects of malicious manipulation of reactor controls, blast effects from various quantities and types of explosives, and the use of incendiary devices on NPRs to assure a margin of public safety.
2.
Summary of Prior Efforts None 3.
Work, to be Performed and Expected Results During the period from FY 1984 to 1986 Los Alamos will perform the l
following tasks.
s.
Work Required
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Task No. 1 Existing information in available sources, such as the NRC docket l
files, augmented by site-specific information provided by NRC staff and site visits will be conducted as necessary to (4) familiarize i
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6 task personnel with characteristics peculiar to each reactor and G
(b) obtain"information necessary to aid in the calculation of the l
radiological consequences for three of the NPRs listed in Table !.
)
,)
Within 1 month af ter initiation of task orders, Los Alamos shall provide a detailed work plan that identifies study milestones and their projected dates of accomplishment. Upon NRC review and i
approval of this plan, it will become the operating schedule for the j
overall task. The work plan is Appendix A to this proposal.
Task No. 2 Mathematical models or other appropriate methods will be developed and/or used to perform the following.
Calculate the radiological release resulting from a total core a.
meltdown, partial core meltdown, core disintegration and/or crushing, or other means that could damage severely the fuel in the reactor core.
Because the key consideration is the fission prodact release associated with such incidents, the effects of using low-enriched uranium vs high-enriched uranium on the fission product release will be evaluated, f
TABLE I LIST OF REACTORS Licensee Docket No.
Power level Reactor Type _
National Bureau of Standards 50-184 20 MW Tank University of Missouri 50-186 10 MW Tank Georgia Institute of Technology 50-160 5 MW Tank Massachusetts Institute of Technology 50 20 5 MW Tank Union Carbide 50-54 5 MW Pool Rhode Island Atomic Energy Commission 50-193 2 MW Fool State University of New York 50-57 2 MW Pool University of Michigan 50-2 2 MW Pool University of Virginia 50-62 2 MW Pool,
r i
i b.
Determine, as a function of distance from the reactor, the total radiatfon do'se (ree) to the whole body and the radiation dose (rem) f to the thyroid from iodine exposure and identify any facility for i
which these could exceed 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 standards Determine the characteristics of the event that would limit it to c.
i less than Parts 20 and 100 standards.
Certain other parameters and assumptions should be considered when f
performing this task. These include and are limited to the following f
except as may be approved by the M4SS Project Manager (PM) in the future.
The models or methods used to Calculate the damage and the release 4
shall assume that the reactor has been operating at the maximum power f
level authorized by the NRC license and that equilibrium of fission j
productr. was attained before the incident. This also will be f'
evalua'.ed if significant damage to the core or subsequent release is calculated to occur after a period of reactor shutdown.
b.
The study for facility shall be terminated and the basis for the conclusion documented in those cases in which the fission product f
inventory of the NPR is determined to be insufficient to create a risk to the public health and safety or those in which the fuel f
configuration or composition and/or the reactor construction or other l
I factors is such as to limit the fuel damage and fission product release to a level that is insufficient to create a risk to the i
f public health and safety.
No assumptions are made regarding the saboteurs' capabilities nor is l
c.
any design-basis threat associated with this task.
d.
For base-line considerations, it should be assumed that all reactor safety features fail upon initiation of the incident, j
i The mean meteorological conditions at the site and the surrounding e.
area should be considered when calculating the atmospheric dispersion of a release.
Task No. 3 After Tasks 1 and 2 have been accomplished, mathematical models or other appropriate methods will be developed to calculate the amount of explosives and the amount of incendiary material needed to cause the limiting events described in Task 2 above. Calculations will be made for l
i I
~
7 events identified in Task No. 2.
Calculations till be ma 3 for placement j
of emplosives and incendiary devices at the reactor boundary and attached j
to reactor components.
t Certain parameters and assumptions should be considered in those calculations. These include, and are limited to, the following except as f
may be approved by the NM55 project monitor (PM) in the future.
4.
The type of explosives and incendiary devices used to Cause an event are assumed to be easily obtainable.
f b.
Two opposing conditions will be considered in performing Task 3.
l 1.
Safeguards credit will be given for all physical barriers interposed between the explosives / incendiaries and the reactor j
fuel.
2.
The adversary will have access to all reactor components in carrying out the sabotage event.
Task No. 4 Upon completion of Task No. 3, for those cases in which the fission product release and estimated doses exceed 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 j
standards, calculations for the minimum amount of explosives and the j
minimum amount of incendiary material needed to cause the release will be made. The calculations shall be made for placement of explosives and incendiary devices in the reactor, attached to reactor components, and outside the structure containing the reactor. The parameters and assumptions employed in Task No. 3 will be used in this task.
t Task No. 5 Upon completion of Task No. 3, reactor control systems and fuels shall be i
reviewed and evaluated to determine whether an unauthorized manipulation l
of such controls could cause any detrimental effects that may be identified in Task No. 2.
Only credible scenarios and analytical assumptions shall be used, and these shall be reviewed and approved by the W55 PM before the analyses are made.
l
t Task No. 6 :,
Upon completion of Task No. 3, calculations for miti ating effects of j
9 full and partial operation of existing safety features associated with
]
the operation of the reactor will be made.
(These features are ignored in Task 3 to determine maximum consequences.) Addition 411y, safety measures and modifications as well as administrative procedures and j
practices that could be adopted and determine the degree to which these f
additional considerations would mitigate the consequences will be identified. Specific safeguards measures are excluded from consideration in this task.
l Task 7: program plan and Schedule for the Remaining Reactors I
Because of the developmental nature of this study, Los Alamos will approach this work in two phases. The first phase, to be completed in FY 1985, will develop the methodology and apply it to three reactors, whichhereafterarereferredtoasleadreactors(LRs). After this phase of work, a detailed plan for completing the remaining five reactors will be formulated based on the data gained in the tR phase.
i in the LR phase (FY 1985), three representative nonpower reactors (NPRs)
{
will be fully analyzed by October 1,1985. These reactors are the NBS j
reactor, the largest NPR representing tank reactors; the University of l
Missouri reactor, the largest enclosed pool reactor; and the Georgia Institute of Technology reactor because of the limited amount of cooling l
water for the reactor power level. Based on the results of these three i
calculations, a better estimate of the time and Cost required to perform the remaining calculations can be made for FY 1986.
A detailed plan for applying the tools developed in Tasks 2 through 6 to the remaining five reactors in Table I will be formulated. This plan will attempt cospletion of the remaining reactors in as short a time as j
possible during FY 1986. This plan will be submitted to NRC for approval.
i 5-l l
l l
b.
Meeting and travel i
Site visits for two analysts to the three reactors will be required.
Three meetings with NRC sponsors in Washington, DC, for two people l
also will be required in FY 1985. Los Alamos representatives shall j
meet with the *$$ PM two to four times a year. Upon completion of i
the draft final report, Los Alamos representatives, upon request of f
the *$$ PM, will brief the WS$ staff in Washington, DC.
j c.
NRC Furnished Materials NRC will furnish only reactor documentation that cannot be obtained j
by Los Alamos, 4
Description of Follow.0n Efforts Upon completion of the analysis in Tasks 1 through 6 a program plan and f
I cost estimate for completion of the remaining five reactors in Table !
will be submitted to NRC for the follow.on efforts, j
]
5.
_ Relationship to Other Projects t
None 6.
Reporting Schedule i
t Monthly letter status reports and a final report will be provided. All l
reports will be submitted to the NRC technical monitor. A distribution l
I list for the final report should be provided by the NRC technical monitor. For any reports that will not be submitted according to the contract schedule, a written reason for the delay will be submitted to j
the technical monitor by the original scheduled date.
t 6
t
t i
a.
Monthly Letter Status Report _
Los Alamos will submit a letter status report each month th6t Summarizes the work performed during the previous month, personnel f
time empenditures during the previous month, and costs generated f
against the work effort. Any changes to cost projections or i
schedules will be indicated. The letter report will arrive at the f
NRC by the 20th of each month, in all monthly reports there will be f
a breakdown of (1) manpower costs; (2) costs incurred for direct j
salaries, material and services. ADP support, subcontracts, travel, j
general, and administrative and other related items; and (3) current obl59ation status information for the project.
l The report shall be distributed as follows.
t Donald M. Carlson, SG, NMSS. one copy Office of the Director, *SS (Attn: Program Support). one copy l
i b.
Interim Reports i
Three draft interim report shall be furnished to the NMSS PM for Task 2, Task 3, and Tasks 5 and 6.
After review by appropriate NRC j
personnel, the PM will provide connents on the draf t report to Los Alamos National Laboratory within 60 days of receipt of each report.
[
A revised interim report shall be submitted if deemed necessary by l
the MSS PM.
i c.
Final Report i
Los Alamos shall furnish two copies of a draft final report to the 255 PM by June 30, 1986. The format of these documents shall be as specified for formal technical reports in NRC Manual Chapter 1102 and will provide 1.
the on-site and off-site fission product release and dosage i
calculations associated with a total loss of coolant, 2.
the quantities of explosives and incendiary material or a j
description of acts necessary to cause a limiting case incident, 3.
the placement of explosives and incendiary materials in relation I
to the reactor.
l 7
l
- m. ':
ma-
- p a description of unauthorized manipulation of reactor controls
'4 and fuel to cause a limiting case incident, M.
5.
the resulting consequences, and 6.
appropriate alternative measures that can be implemented to mitigate a significant event (for example, reactor facility modifications, administrative procedures,.and so on).
1 Af ter review by appropriate NRC personnel, the PM will provide comments on the draft report to Los Alamos within 60 days of receipt of the report.
(
The performing organization shall revise the draft report based on the PM's comments and submit one camera-ready copy of the final report to the Document Management Branch, Technical Information and l
Document Control, NRC, to be published as a NUREG/CR series report, and a duplicate to the HMSS PM.
. All draft reports, as well as final reports, shall be screened for C1:ssified Information and appropriately marked in accordance with "NRC Classification Guide for Information Dealing with the Release and Dispersion of Radioactive Material (NRC-RDRM-1)," dated Sep1 Mr 1982, and NRC Manual Chapter 1102.
7.
Subcontractor Information t
None 8.
New Capital Equipment Required None' 9.
Special Facilities Required None
-.-.-.-.1
I s
l L:
t.
{
- 10. Confli t cf interest Information 4
None i
- 11. Quality Assurance All reports, plans, charts, graphs, schedules, and so on furnished under the terins of this statement of work are to be suoject to internal review and shall reflect acceptance by an authorized management individual l
before submittal to NRC.
f i
b t
P 8
. i
r t
~
APPENDIX A WDRK PLAN 1.
INTRODUCTION Because of the developmental nature of this study, Los Alamos will approach this work in two phases. The first phase, to be completed in
)
FY 1985, will develop the methodology and apply it to three reactors, which hereafter are referred to as lead reactors (LRs). Af ter this phase of work, a detailed plan for completing the remaining five reactors will be formulated based on the data gained in the LR phase.
In the LR phase (FY 1985), three representative nonpower reactors (NPRs) will be 'ully analyzed by October 1,1985. These reactors are the NBS reactor, the largest NPR representing tank reactors; the University of Missouri reactor, the largest enclosed pool reactor; and the Georgia Institute of Technology reactor because of the limited amount of cooling water for the reactor power level. Based on the results of these three calculations, a better estimate of the time and cost required to perform the remaining calculations can be made for FY 1986.
II. TASK BREAKDOWN FOR LEAD REACTOR PHASE (FY 1985)
Task 1.
Collection of Information and Familiarization With It This task will be initiated immediately and will continue as required to gain a familiarity with the three LRs.
Information available at Los Alamos will be supplemented by docket information from NRC and with site visits when t
sufficient familiarity is gained to make the visit meaningful, l
Task 2.
Calculation of Maximum Radiological Release Develop core inventory analyses and apply them to the three LRs for a.
an operating history of the maximum authorized power level long enough to achieve equilibrium fission product levels. Both high. and low-enrichment fuels will be considered.
b.
Use a Master Logic Diagram (MLD) to identify potential physical modes of core disruption or other radionuclide sources for each LR.
i,
n.,
--,----,---------..--.,--...--------.--,-n
c.
The maxthe extent of core damage for each mode identified in the previous step and the fission product release associated with this damage will be determined using available methods.
If no methods exist for a given requirement, an approximate and conservative
(
analytical tool will be developed based on the best current knowledge, d.
The effects of physical decontamination factors on the radionuclide transport will be calculated using currently accepted methods and site-specific information for each LR.
The whole-budy radiation dose and thyroid dose from iodine will be e.
calculated.in rem using currently accepted methods for the potential releases identified for each LR. Mean meteorological conditions at each LR Jill be assumed.
f.
This study will be terminated for those sites with no identified sequence leading to at least a 10 CFR Part 20 release.
3 For those LRs that have sequences exceeding 10 CFR 20 or 10 CFR 100
)
g.
releases, the extent of core damage leading to these releases will be calculated by scaling results from previous calculations in Task 2.d.
h.
All results from the foregoing calculations will be documented and submitted to NRC as an interim technical report.
Task 3.
Determination of Sources of Damage For each damage mode capable of resulting in at least a 10 CFR Part a.
20 or 100 release, the credible sources of such damage (for example, j
explosives and/or incendiary devices) will be identified.
b.
Using explosive yield, structural response, and other analyses, the amount and placement of damage sources resulting in the maximum release will be determined assuming no mitigating system functions and assuming that the adversary has direct access to all reactor components.
c.
The calcJlations of Task 3 will be repeated allowing safeguards credit for any physical barriers blocking direct access to the reactor fuel.
d.
The results of this task will be reported in an interim report to the NRC.
11-c--
w r
~.. - -.,, _ - - --
,..,-....,m y-
..,,,.-,_,..m
m l
')
l i
e Ta'sk 4.-
Scaling of Damage Sources to 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 TheresultsofTask3willbescaledtodeterminethedamagesources a.
leading to 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 releases, b.
The results of this task will be reported along with Task 3 in an interim report to the NRC.
Task 5.
Determination of Misoperation Scenerios Using LR system descriptions, damage modes from Task 2, and damage a.
sources from Task 3, a system logic model (f ault-tree) approach will be used to determine sabotage scenarios resulting from unauthorized operation of reactor controls, systems, or fuels, b.
The results of this task will be documented in an interim report for the NRC.
Task 6.
Mitigating Systems Effe:ts Using the sabotage scenarios developed in Task 5, the effect of a.
mitigating systems on radionuclide release will be included using system logic models (fault trees) to determine the effects of both full and partial operation of mitigating systems, b.
Using the insights of Task 6.a above additional or modified safety features or administrative practices that could be adopted will be identified.
C.
The results of this task will be documented along with Task 5 in an interim report for the NRC.
Task 7.
Program Plan for FY 1986 Upon the conclusion of the LR analyses, a detailed plan for completing the remaining five nonpower reactors in FY 1986 will be formulated and submitted to the NRC.
9 1
LAPCesa h h /q v
us.Nucti AR wtGute.iomy ComaissioN att uf Pao.osa
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{ (ROJECT TIT LS f 8h kvMet a A 7153-4 Consequences'of S'abot. age at Nonpower Reactors
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esta Los Alamos New Mexico COGNIZANT PERSONNEL ORG ANIZ AllON f T& PHONE NUMat R i t hiOD00 P M OAMAbct l1 ARTsNG DAlt D. Carlson NMSS 427-4712 9/9/84 NRC PROJsCT M A e AGER COMPctTa0N DATE DTHER hRC TECHNICAL STAyy
,u,9/30/85
~w-00L PROJECT MAN AGER j
CONT R ACTOR-PRO.'E CT M AN AGER L. H. Sullivan 0-D0 843-9821
(
PRINCIPAL INVESTIG Atom (si T. F. Bott 0-6 843-9207 I
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5.7 106.4 u.i......ao se.....it.cion a. A oPi 1.8 15.3 l
Ace sopoort 0.0 20.0 soi, coni..ai 0.0 0.0 o.2iI.,
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TOT AL PROJECT COST 15.0 255.0 ocio n so.t ust a oi c a v.ia
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- 1. Familiarization with,e,,,,gg,
a nonpower reactors cost 15 k 10 k O
~
- 2. Calculations of se restt maximum and limiting Radiological Consequentes cost 75 k
- 3. Calculation of Explos W%vt a
or Incendiary devices requLred for maximum cost 75 k and 'limitinn reilomeo 4
- 4. Calculat16ns of scatosta explosives for Part 20 and 100 releases cost 15 k b
. Effect of unauthorize F"t D0'8 a
control manipulation cost 35 k I
G 6.$ffectofmitigating scalcutt systems 35 k cost S
SC"t Dd't
- 7. Program Plan for l
FY 1986 cost 10 k 1
s*MEDutt cost l
I s:MEDutt Cost statoutt l.
cost i
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y
,1.
Objective of Proposed Work
(~'
1 a.
Background
In 1979, the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory conducted a study I
of the consequences of sabotage of nonpower reactors (NPRs).
It was concluded that.within the constraints of this study, only l
one NPR had any potential for the release of significant amounts of fission product materials in the event of sabotage.
Because of terrorist activities in other parts of the world, concerns of I
the ACRS about manipulation of reactor control systems, and concerns of a public interest group about the effects of incendiary devices on reactor components, this information should be supplemented with further technical information.
b.
Ogective The objective of this work is to provide the NRC with technical j
information on the effects of malicious manipulation of reactor controls and of the use of incendiary devices on NPRs to assure a margin of public safety.
Y 2.
Summary of Prior Efforts None 3.
Work to be Performed and Expected Results During the period from FY 1984 to 1986 Los Alamos will perform the following tasks.
a.
Work Required Task No. 1 Existing information in available sources, such as the NRC docket files, augmented by site. specific information provided by NRC staff and site visits should be reviewed to (a) familiarize task personnel 1
!)
s tith characteristics peculiar to each reactor and (b) obtain i
'information necessary to aid in the calculation of the radiological 6
consequences for three of the NPRs listed in Table 1.
^
(
Within 1 month af ter initiation of task orders, Los Alamos shall j
provide a detailed work plan that identifies study milestones and '
l their projected dates of accomplishment. Upon NRC review and I
approval of this plan, it will become the operating schedule for the overall task. The work plan is Appendix A to this proposal.
t
_Tas_k_ No. 2 Mathematical models or other appropriate methods will be developed and/or used to perform the following.
Calculate the radiological release resulting from a total core a.
meltdown, partial core meltdown, core disintegration and/or crushing, or other means that could damage severely the fuel in the reactor core.
Because the key consideration is the fission product release associated with such incidents, the effects of using low-enriched uranium vs high-enriched uranium on the fission product release will be evaluated.
4 TABLE I l
LIST OF REACTORS 1
Licens ee Docket No.
Power Level Reactor Type _
I National Bureau of Standards 50-184 20 MW Tank l
University of Missouri 50-186 10 MW Tank Georgia Institute of Technology 50-160 5 MW Tank l
Massachusetts Institute of Technology 50-20 5 MW Tank Union Carbide 50-54 5 MW Pool Rhode Island Atomic Energy Commission 50-193 2 MW Pool State University of New York 50-57 2 MW Pool l
1 University of Michigan 50-2 2 MW Pool University of Virginia 50-62 2 MW Pool l
(
2 l
,U p
1 b.
Determine, as a function of distance from the reactor, the total 7 -
radiation dose (rem) to the whole body and the radiation dose (rem) to the thyroid from iodine exposure and identify any facility for which these could exceed 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 standards c.
Determine the characteristics of the event that would limit it to
-less than Parts 20 and 100 standards.
Certain other parameters and assumptions should be considered when performing this task. These include and are limited to the following except as may be approved by the feiS5 Project Manager (PM) in the future, a.
The models or methods used to calculate the damage and the release shall assume that the reactor has been operating at the maximum power level authorized by the NRC license and that equilibrium of fission products was attained before the incident. This also will be evaluated if significant damage to the core or subsequent release is calculated to occur after a period of reactor shutdown, b.
The study for facility shall be terminated and the basis for the conclusion documented in those cases in which the fission product inventory of the NPR is deterrained to be insufficient to create a 1
risk to the public health and safety or those in which the fuel configuration or composition and/or the reactor construction or other factors is such as to limit the fuel damage and fission product release to a level that is insufficient to create a risk to the public health and safety.
No assumptions are made regarding the saboteurs' capabilities nor is c.
any design-basis threat associated with this task, d.
For base-line considerations, it should be assumed that all reactor safety features fail upon initiation of the incident, The mean meteorological conditions at the site and the surrounding e.
area should be considered when calculating the atmospheric dispersion of a release.
Task No. 3 After Tasks 1 and 2 have been accomplished, mathematical models or other appropriate methods will be developed to calculate the amount of explosives and the amount of incendiary material needed to cause
( __
F o
the placement of explosives and incendiary devices at the reactor facility boundary and attached to reactor components.
(
i i
j Certain parameters and assumptions should be considered in those calculations. These include, and are limited to, the following except as i
may be approved by the NMSS project monitor (PM) in the future.
a.
The type of explosives and incendiary devices used to cause an event are assumed to be easily obtainable, b.
Two opposing conditions will be considered in performing Task 3.
1.
Safeguards credit will be given for all physical barriers interposed between the explosives / incendiaries and the reactor l
fuel.
2.
The adversary will have access to all reactor components in carrying out the sabotage event.
f Hsk No. 4 Upon completion of Task No. 3, for those cases in which the fission product release and estimated doses exceed 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 standards, calculate the amount of explosives and the amount of incendiary material needed to cause the release. The calculations shall i
be made for placement of explosives and incendiary devices attached to reactor components and outside the structure containing the reactor. The i
l parameters and assumptions employed in Task No. 3 will be used in this task.
Task No. 5 l
l Upon completion of Task No. 3. reactor control systems and fuels shall be reviewed and evaluated to determine whether an unauthorized manipulation I
of such controls could cause any detrimental effects that may be identified in Task No. 2.
Only credible scenarios and analytical l
assumptions shall be used, and these shall be reniewed and approved by l
the INSS PM before the analyses are made.
1.
Task No. 6 Upon completion of Task No. 3, calculate the mitigating effects of full and partial operation of existing safety features associated with the operation of the reactor.
(These teatures are ignored in Task 3 to e
4
fj[
i determine maximua consequences.) Identify additicnal safety measures and
),
could be adopted and determine the degree to which these additional j
modifications as well as administrative procedures and practices that j
l considerations would mitigate the consequences. Exclude specific j
l safeguards measures from consideration in this task.
Task 7: Program Plan _and Schedule for the RemainigReactors S
A detailed plan for applying the tools developed in Tasks 2 through 6 to f
the remaining five reactors in Table I will be formulated. This plan will attempt completion at the remaining reactors in as short a time as possible during FY 1986. This plan will be submitted to NRC for approval.
[
b.
Meetings and Travel Site visits for two analysts to the three reactors will be required.
Three meetings with NRC sponsors in Washington, DC, for two people also will be required in FY 1985.
c.
NRC Furnished Materials NRC will furnish only reactor documentation that cannot be obtained by Los Alamos.
4 Description of Follow-On Efforts Upon completion of the analysis in Tasks 1 through 6 a program plan and cost estimate for completion of the remaining five reactors in Table I will be submitted to NRC for the follow-on efforts.
5.
Relationship to Other Projects None 6.
Reporting Schedule Monthly letter status reports and a fina' report will be provided. All
(
reports will be submitted to the NRC technical monitor. A distribution -
i list for the final report should be provided by the NRC technical monitor. For:any reports that will not be submitted according to the contract-schedule, a written reason for the delay will be submitted to j
the technical monitor by the original scheduled date.
j a.
Monthly letter Statu1 Report Los Alamos will submit a letter status report each month that summarizes the work performed during the previous month, personnel l
time expenditures during the previous month, and costs generated against the work effort. Any changes to cost projections or schedules will be indicated. The letter report will arrive at the NRC by the 20th of each month.
In all monthly reports there wil,1 be a breakdown of (1) manpower costs; (2) costs incurred for direct salaries, material and services. ADP support, subcontracts, travel, peneral, and administrative and other related items; and (3) current obligation status information for the project.
The report shall be distributed as follows.
Donald M. Carlson, SG, WSS - one copy i.
Office of the Director, NMSS (Attn:
Program Support) - one copy i
b.
Interim Reports A draft interim report shall be furnished to the NMSS PM upon completion of each major task (that is, Tasks No. 2, 3, 4, and 5).
Af ter review by appropriate NRC personnel, tne PM will provide r
coments on the draf t report to Los Alamos National Laboratory within 60 days of receipt of each report. A revised interim report shall be submitted if deemed necessary by the WSS PM.
c.
Fina'l Report Los Alamos shall furnish two copies of a draft final report to the WSS PM by June 30, 1986. The format of there documents shall be as specified for formal technical reports in NRC Manual Chapter 1102 and will provide l
- l
i l.
the on-site and cff-site fission product release and dosage calculations associated with a total loss of coolant,
(~
2.
the quantities of explosives and incendiary material or a r
description of acts necessary to cause a limiting case incident, 3.
the plac'ement of explosives and incendiary materials in relation to the reactor, 4.
a description of unauthorized manipulation of reactor controls and fuel to cause a limiting case incident.
5.
the resulting consequences, and 6.
appropriate alternative measures that can be implemented to mitigate a significant event (for example, reactor facility modifications, administrative procedures, and so on).
- After review by appropriate NRC personnel, the PM will provide comments on the draft report to Los Alamos within 60 days of receipt of the report.
The performing organization shall revise the draft report based on the PM's comments and submit one camera-ready copy of the final report to the Document Management Branch, Technical Information and.
Document Control, NRC, to be published as a NUREG/CR series report, and a duplicate to the NMSS PM.
?
All draft reports, as well as final reports, shall be screened for Classified Information and appropriately marked in accordance with "NRC Classification Guide for Information Dealing with the Release and Dispersion of Radioactive Material (NRC-RORM-1)," dated September 1982, and NRC Manual Chapter 1102.
L 7.
Subcontractor Information None L
8.
New Capital Equipment Required None I
l l l
t y
i i,
.,L p, *,,
9.
Special-Facilities Required f-l-
None
- 10. Conflict of Interest Information None i
l 3
A APPENDIX A 4
?
WORK PLAN INTRODUCTION
'Because of the developmental nature of this study, Los Alamos will approach this work in two phases. The first phase, to be completed in FY 1985, will develop the methodology and apply it to three reactors, which hereafter are referred to as lead reactors (LRs). After this phase of work, a detailed. plan for completing the remaining five reactors will be formulated based on the data gained in the LR phase.
In the LR phase (FY 1985), three-representative nonpower reactors (NPRs) will be fully analyzed by October 1,1985. These reactors are the NBS reactor, the-largest NPR representing tank reactors; the University of Missouri reactor, the largest enclosed pool reactor; and the Union Carbide reactor, the. largest open pool type reactor. Based on the results of these three calculations, a better estimate of the time and cost required to perform the remaining calculations can be made for FY 1985.
(
II. TA$K BREAKDOWN FOR LEAD REACTOR PHASE (FY 1985)
Task'1. Collection of__Information and Familiarization With It This task will be initiated imediately and will continue as required to gain a familiarity with the three LRs.
Information available at Los Alamos will be supplemented by docket information from NRC and with site visits when sufficient familiarity is gained to make the visit meaningful.
Task 2.
Calculation of Maximum Radiological Release Develop core inventory analyses and apply them to the three LRs for a.
an operating history of the maximum authorized power level long enough to achieve equilibrium fission product levels.
Both high-and low. enrichment fuels will be considered.
b.
Use a Master Logic Diagram (MLD) to identify potential physical modes of core disruption or other radionuclide sources for each LR.
.g.
e o
l The maximum extent of core damage for each mode identified in the c.
' previous step and the fission product release associated with this
.t damage will be determined using available methods.
If no methods exist for a given requirement, an approximate and conservative j
analytical tool will be developed based on the best current knowlecige.
]
d.
The effects of physical decontamination factors on the radionuclide transport will be calculated using currently accepted methods and site-specific information for each LR.
The whole body radiation dose and thyroid dose from iodine will-be e.
calculated in rem using currently accepted methods for the potential 5
releases identified for each LR. Mean meteorological conditions at each LR will be assumed.
f.
This study will be terminated for those sites with no identified j
sequence leading to at least a 10 CFR Part 20 release.
For those LRs that have sequences exceeding 10 CFR 20 or 10 CFR 100 g.
i releases, the extent of core damage leading to these releases will be calculated by scalinC of results from previous c61culations in Task 2.d.
h.
All results from the foregoing calculations will be documented and submitted to NRC as an interim technical report.
t Task 3.
Determination of Sources of Damage For each damage mode capable of resulting in at least a 10 CFR Part a.
20 or 100 release, the credible sources of such damage (for example, l
explosives or incediary devices) will be identified.
b.
Using explosive yield, structural response, and other analyses, the amount and placement of damage sources resulting in the maximum release will be determined assuming no mitigating system functions and assuming that the adversary has direct access to all reactor components.
The calculations of Task 3 will be repeated allowing safeguards c.
credit for any physical barriers blocking direct access to the reactor fuel.
d.
The results of this task will be reported in an interim report to the NRC.
I
I i
e
.( -
Task 4.
Scaling of Damage Sources to 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 a.
The results of Task 3 will be scaled to determine the damage sources leading to 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 releases.
,b.
The results of this task will be reported along with Task 3 in an interim report to the NRC.
Task 5.
Determination of Misoperation Scenerios Using LR system descriptions, damage modes from Task 2, and damage a.
sources from Task 3, a. system logic model (f ault-tree) approach will be used to determine sabotage scenarios resulting from unauthorized operation of reactor controls, systems, or fuels, b.
The results of this task will be documented in an interim report for the NRC.
Task 6.
Mitigating Systems Effects Using the sabotage scenarios developed in Task 5, the effect of i
a.
mitigating systems on radionuclide release will be included using system logic models (f ault trees) to determine the effects of both full and partial operation of mitigating systems, i
b.
Using the insights of Task 6.a. above, identify additional or modified safety features or administrative practices that could be adopted.
C.
The results of this task will be documented in an interim report for the NRC.
Task 7.
Program Plan for FY 1986 Upon the conclusion of the LR analyses, a detailed plan for completing the remaining five nonpower reactors in FY 1986 will be formulated and submitted to the NRC.
l 1,
~
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TASK ?.
O N
D J
F M
A.
M
-J-J.-A S
4 a.
Core Inventory Calculations A
b.
Identify Damage Modes O
c.
Determine Core Dama y A
d.
Radionuclide Release O
I e.
Whole Body Dose d
f.
Terminate Studies as Applicable d
g.
Part 20 and 100 Release Damage
^
d l
Detemination i
h.
Report g
i
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TASK'3 0
N D
J F
~ M A
M J
J*A 5
a.
Identify Damage Sources A
b.
Calculate Amount of Damage 4
j Source c.
Include Effects of Safeguards A
i Barriers d.
Report g
TASK 4 i
a.
Scale Results of Task 3 to 3
Part 20 and 100 Releases b.
Report with Task 3 3
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N D
J F
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S v
h a.
Construct logic Models for A
i Scenarios 4
b.
Report i
TASK 6 a.
Construct logic Pbdels a
(
b.
Make Recommendations on A
4-Improved Safeguards c.
Report with Task 5 a
l i
l l
TASK 7
)
a.
Submit Program Plan e
for FY 1986 l
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- 1. Familiarization with,,,,g,,
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o
- 2. Calculations of se tests maximum and limiting l
Radiological Consequentes cost 75 k
- 3. Calculation of Explos $$out O
or Incendiary devices required for maximum cost 75 k A n f1 Iimit inn rolDAtc
--O
- 4. Calculations of sentouts explosives for Part 20 and 100 releases cost 15 k O
. Effect of unauthorize f:"fDu't control manipulation 35 k cost O
6.fffectofmitigating ScatDutt systems 35 k cost
-D SC"tDukt
- 7. Program Plan for FY 1986 l
cost 10 k s:wrovst cost sCMIDutt cost sculoVLt cost tovat astwatso emostet cost 15 k 255 k l
lDail APPmo va6 Aut monit y..e watu 8
!D 6
j 1.
Objective of Proposed Work
(
a.
Background
i in 1979, the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory conducted a study of the consequences of sabotage of nonpower reactors (NPRs).
It was concluded that, within the constraints of this study, only one NPR had any potential for the release of significant amounts I
of fission product materials in the event of sabotage.
Because of terrorist activities in other parts of the world, concerns of the ACRS about manipulation of reactor control systems, and concerns of a public interest group about the effects of incendiary devices on reactor components, this information should be supplemented with further technical information, b.
OMective The objective of this work is to provide the NRC with technical information on the effects of malicious manipulation of reactor controls and of the use of incendiary devices on NPRs to assure a margin of public safety.
2.
Summary of Prior Efforts None 3.
Work to be Performed and Expected Results During the period from FY 1984 to 1986 Los Alamos will perform the following tasks.
a.
Work Required Task No.1 Existing information in available sources, such as the NRC decket files, augmented by site-specific information provided by NRC staff and site visits should be review 3d to (a) familiarire task personnel 1
]
i i:(-
cith characteristics peculiar to each reactor and (b) obtain information necessary to aid in the calculation of the radiological consequences for three of the NPRs listed in Table 1.
Within 1 month after initiation of task orders, Los Alamos shall provide a detailed work plan that identifies study milestones and their projected dates of accomplishment. Upon NRC review and approval of this plan, it will become the operating schedule for the overall task. The work plan is Appendix A to this proposal, Task No. 2 Mathematical models or other appropriate methods will be developed and/or used to perform the following, Calculate the radiological release resulting from a total core a.
meltdown, partial core meltdown, core disintegration and/or crushing, or other means that could damage severely the fuel in the reactor core.
Because the key consideration is the fission product release associated with such incidents, the effects of using low-enriched uranium vs high-enriched uranium on the fission product release will be evaluated, TABLE I LIST OF REACTORS Licensee Docket No.
Power Level Reactor Type National Bureau of Standards 50-184 20 MW Tank University of Missouri 50-186 10 MW Tank Georgia Institute of Technology 50-160 5 MW Tank Massachusetts Institute of Technology 50-20 5 MW Tank l-Union Carbide 50-54 5 MW Pool Rhode Island Atomic Energy Comission 50-193 2 MW Pool State University of New York 50-57 2 MW Pool University of Michigan 50-2 2 MW Pool L,
University of Virginia 50-62 2 MW Pool 1
l, l
t b.
Determine, as a function of distance from the reactor, the total
]
- 7 radiation dose (rem) to the whole body and the radiation dose (rem) 4; to the thyroid from iodine exposure and identify any facility for which these could exceed 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 standards i
c.
Determine the characteristics of the event that would limit it to less than Parts 20 and 100 standards.
Certain other parameters and assumptions should be considered when performing this task. These include and are limited to the following except as may be approved by the PfiSS Project Manager (PM) in the future.
a.
The models or methods used to calculate the damage and the release shall assume that the reactor has been operating at the maximum power level authorized by the NRC license and that equilibrium of fission products was attained before the incident. This also will be evaluated if significant damage to the core or subsequent release is calculated to occur after a period of reactor shutdown.
b.
The study for facility shall be terminated and the basis for the conclusion documented in those cases in which the fission product t
inventory of the NPR is determined to be insufficient to create a risk to the public health and safety or those in which the fuel configuration or composition and/or the reactor construction or other factors is such as to limit the fuel damage and fission product e
release to a level that is insufficient to create a risk to the i
public health and safety.
c.
No assumptions are made regarding the saboteurs' capabilities nor is any design-basis threat associated with this task.
d.
For base-line considerations, it should be assumed that all reactor safety features fail upon initiation of the incident, The mean meteorological conditions at the site and the surrounding e.
area should be considered when calculating the atmospheric dispersion of a release.
Task No. 3 Af ter Tasks 1 and 2 have been accomplished, mathematical models or other appropriate methods will be developed to calculate the amount of explosives and the amount of incendiary material needed to cause i.
4 h
the placement of explosives and incendiary devices at the reactor facility boundary and attached to reactor components.
j
(
Certain parameters and assumptions should be considered in those calculations. These include, and are limited to, the following except as may be approved by the NMSS project monitor (PM) in the future.
a.
The type of explosives and incendiary devices used to cause an event are assumed to be easily obtainable, b.
Two opposing conditions will be considered in performing. Task 3.
1.
Safeguards credit will be given for all physical barriers interposed between the explosives / incendiaries and the reactor fuel.
2.
The adversary will have access to all reactor components in carrying out 'the sabotage event.
lask No. 4 Upon completion of Task No. 3, for those cases in which the fission product release and estimated doses exceed 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 standards, calculate the amount of explosives and the amount of incendiary material needed to cause the release. The calculations shall be made for placement of explosives and incendiary devices attached to reactor components and outside the structure containing the reactor. The parameters and assumptions employed in Task No. 3 will be used in this task.
1 Task No. 5 Upon completion of Task No. 3, reactor control systems and fuels shall be reviewed and evaluated to determine whether an unauthorized manipulction of such controls could cause any detrimental effects that may be identified in Task No. 2.
Only credible scenarios and analytical assumptions shall be used, and these shall be reviewed and approved by the INSS PM before the analyses are made.
Task No. 6 Upon completion of Task No. 3, calculate the mitigating effects of full and partial operation of existing safety features associated with the operation of the reactor.
(These features are ignored in Task 3 to 4
l
i, Lim
- e' determine maximum consequences.)
Identify additional safety measures and modifications as well as administrative procedures and practices that could be adopted and determine the degree to which these additional considerations would mitigate the consequences. Exclude specific safeguards measures from consideration in this task.
Task 7: Pro _ gram Plan and Schedule for the Remaining _ Reactors A detailed plan for applying the tools developed in Tasks 2 througn 6 to the remaining five reactors in Table I uill be formulated. This plan will attempt completion at the' remaining reactors in as short a time as possible during FY 1986. This plan will be submitted to NRC for approval, b.
Meetings and Travel Site visits for two analysts to the three reactors will be required.
Three meetings with NRC sponsors in Washington, DC, for two people also will be required in FY 1985.
c.
NRC Furnished Materials NRC will furnish only reactor documentation that cannot be obtained by 1.os Alamos.
4 Description of Follow-On Efforts l
L Upon completion of the analysis in Tasks I through 6 a program plan and cost estimate for compiction of the remaining five rebetors in Table I will be submitted to NRC for the follow-on efforts.
5.
Relationship to Other Projects None 6.
Reporting Schedule Monthly letter status reports and a final report will be provided. All reports will be submitted to the NRC technical monitor. A distribution J
h2 l
list for the final report should be provided by the NRC technical monitor. For any reports that will not be submitted according to the contract schedule, a written reason for the delay will be submitted to f
the technical monitor by the original scheduled date.
4.
Mon _thly letter Statu1 Report Los Alamos will submit a letter status report each month that summarizes the work performed during the previous month, personnel time emenditures during the previous month, and costs generated against the wort effort.
Any changes to cost projections or schedules will be indicated. The 10tter ceport will arrive at the NRC by the 20th of eacn (nonth.
In all monthly reports there wii) be a breakdown of (1) manpower costs; (2) costs incurred for direct salaries, material anc services, ADP support, subcontracts, travel, general, and administrative and otht:r reltted items; and (?) carrent obligation stetos informt.tten for the p.9fect.
The report shall be distributed as follows.
Donald M. Carlson, SG, tetSS. one copy Office of the Director, NMSS (Attn:
Program Support). one copy b.
Interim Reports A draf t interim report shall be furnished to the NMSS PM upon completion of each major task (that is. Tasks No. 2, 3, 4, and 5).
Af ter review by appropriate NRC personnel, the PM will provide comments on the draft report to los Alamos National Laboratory within 60 days of receipt of each report. A revised interim report shall be submitted if deemed necessary by the tttSS PM.
c.
Final Report Los Alamos shall furnish two copies of a draf t final report to the tNSS PM by June 30, 1986. The format of these documents shall be as specified for formal technical reports in NRC Manual Chapter 1102 and will provide i
6-
a a
l 1.
the on site and off-site fission product release and dosage i
calculations associated with a total loss of coolant.
2.
the quantities of explosives and incendiary material or a j
description of acts necessary to cause a limiting case incident, 3.
the placement of explosives and incendiary materials in relation to the reactor, j
4.
a description of unauthorized manipulation of reactor controls
[
and fuel to cause a limiting case incident, 5.
the resulting consequences, and
[
6.
appropriate alternative measures that can be implemented to f
mitigate a significtnt event (for example, reactor f acility
[
modifications, administrative procedures, and so on).
i i
Af ter review by appropriate NRC persohnel, the PM will provide f
comments on the draf t report to 1.0s Alamos within 60 days of receipt of the report, The perforniing orget.ization shall revise the decft report based on j
the PM's coments and submit one camera. ready copy of the final report to the Document Management Branch, Technical Information and Document Control NRC, to be published as a NUREG/CR series report, and a duplicate to the NMSS PM.
All draf t reports, as well as final reports, shall be screened for l
Classified Information and appropriately marked in accordance with i
"NRC Classification Guide for Information Dealing with the Release f
and Dispersion of Radioactive Material (NRC-RDRM-1), dated Mptember 1982, and NRC Manual Chapter 1102, f
7.
Subec, tractor Information None t
8.
New Capital Equipmerit Required t
None i
7 I
1
~
9.
Special Facilities Required i
P None i
- 10. Conflict of Interest Information None k
f l
t
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~
i; APPENDIX A WORK PLAN
~
r I.
INTRODUCT10::
Because of the developmental nature of this study, Los Alamos will approach this work in two phases. The first phase, to be completed in FY 1985, will develop the methodology and apply it to three reactors, which hereaf ter are referred to as lead reactors (t.Rs).
After this phase of work, a detailed plan for completing the remaining five reactors will be formulated based on the data gained in the LR phase.
In the LR phase (FY 1985), three representative nonpower reactors (NPRs) will be fully ana'lyzed by October 1,1985. These reactors are the NBS reactor, the largest f4PR representing tank reactors; the University of Missourl reactor, the largest enclosed pool reactor; and the Union Carbide reactor. the 1ergest open pool type reacter. Based on the results of these three calculations, a better estimats of the time and cost required to perform the temaining calculations can te made for FY 1986.
i II. TASK BREAK 00WN FOR LEAD REACTOR PHASE (FY 1985)
Task 1.
Collection of information and Familiarization With it This task will be initiated imediately and will continue as required to gain a familiarity with the three LRs.
Information available at Los Alamos will be supplemented by docket information from NRC and with site visits when sufficient f amiliarity is gained to make the visit meaningful.
l Task 2.
Calculation of Maximum Radiological Release i
Develop core inventory analyses and apply them to the three LRs for a.
an operating history of the maximum authorized power level long cnough to achieve equilibrium fission product levels.
Both high and I
f low-enrichment fuels will be considered.
I b.
Use a Master Logic Diagram (MLD) to identify potential physical modes of core disruption or other radionuclide sources for each LR.
l l
i The maximum extent of core damage for each mode identified in the c.
previous step and the fission product release associated with this damage will be determined using available methods.
If no methods exist for a given requirement, an approximate and conservative analytical tool will be developed based on the best current knowledge.
d.
The effects of physical decontamination factors on the rsdionuclide
[
transport will be calculated using currently accepted methods and f
i site-specific information for each LR.
The whole body radiation dose and thyroid dose from todine will be e.
calculated in rem using currently accepted methods for the potential releases identified for each LR.
Mean sneteorological conditions at each LR will be assumed.
f.
This study will be terminated for those sites with no identified sequence 1cading to at least a 10 CFR Part 20 release, For those LRs that have sequences exceeding 10 CFR 20 or 10 (VR 100 g.
releases, the exter,t of core damage leading to these nieases will be l
calculated by scaling of ret.vlts from previour calculations in Task 2.d.
h.
All results from the foregoing calculations will be documented and submitted to NRC as an interim technical report, t
Task 3.
Determination of Sources of Damage For each damage mode capable of resulting in at least a 10 CFR Part a.
20 or 100 release, the credible sources of such damage (for example, explosives or incediary devices) will be identified.
f b.
Using explosive yield, structural response, and other analyses, the amount and placement of damage sources resulting in the maximum release will be determined assuming nc mitigating system functions and assuming that the adversary has direct access to all reactor l
components.
The calculations of Task 3 will be repeated allowing safeguards c.
credit for any physical barriers blocking direct access to the l
reactor fuel, d.
The results of this task will be reported in an interim report to the l
NRC.
10-
.-.n
,w
Task 4.
Scaling of Damage Sources to 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 j
The results of Task 3 will be scaled to determine the damage sources 4.
leading to 10 CFR 20 and 10 CFR 100 releases.
The results of this task will be reported along with Task 3 in an
.b.
interim report to the NRC.
t Task 5.
Determination of hisoperatiott Scenerios Using LR system descriptions, damage modes from Task 2, and damage a.
sources from Task 3, a system logic model (f ault-tree) approach will be used to determine sabotage scenarios resulting from unauthorized operation of reactor controls, systems, or fuels, b.
The results of this task will be documented in an interim report for the NRC.
i Task 6.
Mitigating Systems Effects l
Using the sabotage scenarios developed in Task 5 the effect of a.
mitigating systems on radionuclide release will be included using j
l system logic models (fault trees) to determine the effects of both full and partial operation of mitigcting systems, Using the insights of Task 6.a. above, identify additional or b.
modified safety features or administrative practices that could be adopted.
The results of this task will be docunented in an interim report for C.
the NRC.
I Task 7.
Program Plan for FY 1986 Upon the conclusion of the LR analyses, a detailed plan for completing the remaining five nonpower reactors in FY 1986 will be formulated and submitted to the NRC.
11
TASK 2 0
N D
J F
M A
M J
JA 5
a.
Core Inventory Calculations O
b.
Identify Damage Modes O
c.
Determine Core Damage O
d.
Radionuclide Release 8
1, e.
Whole Body Dose O
f.
Terminate Studies as Applicable O
g.
Part 20 and 100 Release Damage
^
A Determination 4
l h.
Report
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Scale Results of Task 3 to 3
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a.
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Report with Task 5 a
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Subait Program Plan a
for FY 1986 4
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l In 1979, the Les Aleses Scientific Laboratory conducted 4 study l
of the consequences of sabotage of nonpower reactors (hPRs). It
?
was concluded that, within the constraints of this study, only one NPR had any potential for the release of significant amounts j
of filston product materials in the event of labotage, because of terrorist activities in other parts of the world, concerns of the ACR$ about menipuistion of reactor control systems, and concerns of a pubite interest, coup about the effects of i
incenditry devices on resctor components, this information f
should be supplemented with further technical information, j
4/ set < Nee $
em, wmer pawntars am.f dys,) esploorges, b.
Ob.4ective The cbjectiv of this work is to provide the NRC with technica) l informati on the effects of malicious manipw14 tion of reactor controls,and of the use of incendiary devices on hpRs to assure
[
a reargin of public safety.
l
?.
Sumary of Prior Efforts l
l None i
1 3.
Work to _te perfor_mte and tapeeted Results During the period from FY 1984 to 1986 Los Alamos will perform the
[
following tasks.
i s.
Work Requirty j
Ttsk 40. 1 Existing information in available sources, such as the NRC docket files, augmented by site. specific. forsation provided by NRC staff shay c..sv.f and te visits O t.d be e n t.a: o (a) f amiliarine task personnel
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.with cheretteristics peculiar to each reacter and (6) obtain f
information netess6ry to aid in the calculation of the radiologica) l g
consequences for three of the WPRs listed in Tetle 1.
{
Within 1 month af ter initiation of task orders, Los Alamos shal)
)
provi$e a detailed work plan that identifies study milestones and j
tasir,rosected dates of an oo n s,.ent. U,on n C review and spproval of this plan, it will become the operating schedule for the j
overall task. The work plan is Appendia A to this proposal.
- l Task Wo. I Mathematical models or other appropriate methods will be developed f
and/or used to perfore the following.
a.
Caleviate the radiological release resulting from a tctal core f
meltdown, partial core metteown, core disintegration and/or l
crushing, or other means that could damage severely the fuel in i
the reactor cor.. iecause the key consid. ration is the fission product release associated with such incidents, the effects of I
oste, iow. enriched o,anto, vs high.enric,ed,anio. on the l
fission predvet release will be evaluated.
l l
TA8Lt !
L15T OF REACTOR 5 i
Licensee Docket ko.
Power Level Reactor Tne National Bureau of standards 50 164 20 m Tank i
University of Missourt 50 186 10 W Tank Georgia Institute of Technology 50 160
$W Tank Massachusetts Institute of Technology 50 20
$ MW Tank Union Carbiet 50 54 5W pool Rhode Island Atonis Energy Comission 50 193 2 MW Pool State University of New York
$0 57 tW Pool i
University of Michigan 50 2 2 MW pool University of Virginia 50 62 2W Pool l
.t.
400 500*CN ci1G 412 W Scitt P6/0143
DRAFT b.
Deterefne, se a function of distance from the reacter, the total radietten dose (ree) to the whole body and the radiatten dose (res) to the thyroid from iodine espesure and identify any facility for which these could encoed 10 CFR to and 10 CFR 100 standards 7
- c. Determine the characteristics of the event that would limit it to less een Parts to and 100 standards.
Certain other parameters and assumptions should be considered when j
performing this task. These include and are limited to the following j
encept as may be approved by the *$$ Project Manager (PM) in the future.
l
- a. The models or methods used to calculate the damage and the release l
shall assume that the reactor has been operating at the maximse power 1evel authorized by the NRC, license and that equilibrium of fission products was attained before the incident. This also will be l
l evaluated if significant damage to the core or subsequent release is calculated to occur after a period of reactor shutdown.
4 b.
The study for facility shall be terminated and the basis for the conclusion documented in those cases in which the fission product inventory of the.NPR is determined to be ir. sufficient to create a f
risk to the public health and safety or thcle in which tne fuel f
configuration or composition and/or the reactor construction or other
}
factors is such as to limit the fuel damage and fission product release to a level that is insufficient to crease a risk to the I
public health and safety.
j c.
No assumptions are made regarding the saboteurs' capabilities nor is l
ar.y design basis threat associated with this task.
I d.
Fcr base.line considerations, it should be assumed that all reactor-f safety features fail upon initiation of the incident.
e.
The mean meteorological conditions at the site and the surrounding f
area should be considered when calculating the atmospheric dispersion i
t of a release.
l Talk No. 3 After Tasks 1 and I have been accomplished, mathematical models or other
{
appropriate methods will be developed to calculate the amount of e.,iolives aed the 4.unt of incendiary. ate,iti needed to cause.e I
l 3
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n, be.per.ved y the m1,,o3ni.nitor m in the foivre, i
4.
The type of esplosives and incenditry devices used to caust 6n event are assuned to be estily obtain6ble.
b.
Two opposing conditions will be considered in performing task 3.
1.
14fepvares credit will be given for all physical turiers I
interposed between the emplosives/incendiwies and the reactor fue).
- c. The.< vers.ry win h.ve. ness to an re..
com,oesnu in cor,$n, out tne sa.ot.,e event, j
i T4sk No. 4 Upon completion of Task No. 3. for those cases in which tne fission product retene end ted usu need to en to an io em ion i
itinauds, ceicuiitG.eiti#ssr67TJGltvu and GypTnt of e4 i
1xendiery utertai nndee to cava the reintt[ YnTcafe,u,1gtogy n De Nee for placesent of explosives and incendiary devicesgattachnd to reactor components,atd outside the structure containing the re6ctor. The carameters and assumptuns employed in Task No. 3 mill be used la this
[
task.
I Task No. i l
Upon conpletion of Talk ho. 3, reactor control systens and fuels 9411 be l
reviewed and evaluated to determine whether an untuthorized manipulation of such controls cov1d causa any detrimentti effects that may be l
identified in Task No. 2.
Only credible scenarios and analytics) essumptions shall be used, and these sh411 be reviewed and approved by l
the R$$ PM tifore the analyses are made.
Task No. 6
, (,
Upon completion of Task No. 3, calculatA y mitigating effects of ful) tu partial operationg g(These features are ignored in Talk 3 toify saf operation of the reector.g 4
1 d
m re-
_._...-...____.-.____-7-.--.
i D%FTi 0.U.t...J(3,'s.'<.h b.s '.s, sb
. determine maisus consequences.) !!:."'; :!..t --M s.fety.e.sures and vific. tion, n.tii n. inistr.tive pru evuru 4 pr utte n th.t uniider.tionsavig,tigte the uniewerey*ut.co ene seter.ine the e,ru to whto tyM feuific se.u ition.)
E uf.gu.rdi uuru fr unstar. tion in this t l
x y,,,, T.o n eroer...i.n.nd seedule for the no..inin. neuters 4,,,, n,.4, A
~n, A cet iled pian for.,,iytag the t 1 veveiones in T.sts t snrow,n 6 to,. 4,,,
/..
v,'wmntnin, five resciors in taie : wiii be for.wi.tes. Th6 ein the re ite.,s templetion.,t the re inin, re.ctori in.s short ts.e s 1
possible durin, FY 1986. This plan will be subritted to NRC for.pprov.1.
l b.
Meetines end tr. vel i
Site visits for two.n.lysts to the three re.ctors will be required.
Three meetings with NRC sponsors in W. shin, ton, DC, for two people 4
.lso will be requires in FY 1945. LANL r *P@r*sewfatscs s4
)
- '*
- t *f *4
- cIr* h NmstPm*s. t. b e t m es waae.
l
+.w.I-eper,metri.11LwL *rtm. iijstivef,p.m r ep est. ) '*= N*rs ?M,
- Lil i
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j c.
NRC will furv.t.h oniy retctor secu.ent tion th.t :.ncet be obt.ined by i.es Ala.os.
.. Description of Follow.On Efferts og l
i tipon completion of the an.1ysis in fisks 1 through 6 e progr.m plan.nd cost estim.te for co.pletion of the remining five resctors in T.bie !
will be submitted to NAC for the follow.on efforts.
5.
Pe1.tionship to Other,ro.iects t
None y
6.
neportine Schedule
)
Monthly letter status reports.nd. final report will be provided. All j
reports will be submitted to the NRC technic.).onitor. A distribution c,ce gaa cN ctt;ulm W1 9ct41 r0 '0140
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- ust f., se finai,e,e,t sho.id be,,evided 6,.e.c suhnicai nonitor. F6r any reports that will not be submitted 6ccording to the I
centract scheevle, a written reason for the delay will be submitted to the technica) nonitor by the original schedwied date.
a.
Monthly Letter Status ReDert Los A14ses will submit a letter status report och month that i
summartres the work performed during the previous sofith, personnel time exponettures during i;he previous month, and costs generates against the work effort. Any changes to cost projections er' sched.iles will be indicsted. The letter report will arrive at the NRC by the 20th of each month.
In all monthly reports there will be 4 breakdown of (1) unpower costs; (t) costs incurred for direct l
salaries, eterial and services, ADP suppert, subcontracts, travel, l
general, and administrative and other related items; and (3) current
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obligation status inforntion for the project.
j 4
rhe re,o,t than be distraoted as feno.s.
Donald M. Carlson, $4, W$$ = one copy Office of the Director, W$$ (Attn Program.tupport).onecopy j
i
/
b, Interim p g A draft Interim report shall be furnished to tbs *$$ PM vMn 6 ed completion of $6th NjDr tasks (that is, Tasks No. 2, 3f 4 Md"$ z y
After review by appropriate RC pesonnel, the PM will provide comments on the draft report tt Los A14/us fictional Laborettry within j
60 days of receipt of each report. A revised trterin. report sha)) be submitted if deemed Secessary by the M11 PM.
i
/
c.
Final Resort Los Alamos shall furnish two copies of a draft final report to the WS$ PM Wy June 30,1986. The format of these documents shall be as l
l specified for formal technical reports in 2C Manual Chapter 1102 ane I
will provide e
6
-- 600 Ea0 'CH EllE Adl G i "HCO 9C 41 8'8'0Id0 1
b i
1.
We,en. site and off. site fission product release 6nd delege telev14tions asweinted with a total less of toelent, i
- n. We A,.ntiti.s of. piesives.nd incendiary = teri.i.r a description of acts necessary to cause a limiting case incident, 3.
the p14 cement of esplosives 6nd incendiery meterials in relation to the reactor, t
4 a description of unauthertsed snipulation of reacter controls and fuel to cause a ilmiting case incident,
{
l.
the resulting consequentes, and 1
.. 6,propri.ie siternative messores th.i.an se impi.nented to l
mitigate a significant event (for example, re6cter fetility i
modifications, administrative procedures, and se en).
f l
Af ter review by appropriate NRC personnel, the PM will provide commente en the craft report to Los Alames within 60 days of receipt of the report.
t i
4 i
The perfermir.g pganisation shell ravise the draft report based en the PM's cemeTs and submit one csMre. ready rrpy of t%e finel j
rewt to the Secunent Management tranch, fe:Nivel Information ene Document Centrol, NRC, te es published as e WM6/CR series report, and a duplicate to the *$$ PM.
t All eref t report), as well as final rsports, shall be screer.ed for Classified inform tion and soprepriately merked th accordance with j
I
'NRC Classification $ wide for Infor1 hat %n Oseling,with the Release and Dispersion of Radioactive Material (WRC.RDRM.1).* cated Septenter 1982, and NRC Manual Chapter 1102.
I
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Subcontractor Information None
< 8.
New capital teviement Reevired None 7
010 W *>
ci1G Aj: s 7 m 4t:41 r9'01 @
LM('
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I 9.'
lascial Fact 11 ties neautred i
l6ene I
- 10. Confilet of interest InformeG:=
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LMT App (PD!t A WORK PLAN i
i 1.
INTRODUCTIM j
iecause of ne.evei.
niai natuce of ms stod,, t.s n.et wm approach this work in two phases. The firsc shan, to be cwiveted in
, FY 1985, wi11 develop the methodology and apply it to three reactor 4, which hereafter are referred to as lead reactors (LRs). After this phase of work, a l
1.eistied pian for co.pieting u. remainin, five reactors em se for-iated g based on the data ined in we tR r ose, i
In the LR phase (FY 1985), three representative nonpower reactors (NPRs) l N will be fully analysed by October 1 Itti. These reactors are the NS$
l hreactor, the inrgest NPR representing tank reactersLthe University of _ __ [/"f',d
{
f gnisseurt reactor, the 1ereest ene10 ev 0001 rescieriNs we wM 1._: A'd; ;
reactor, the largest open pool type reactor. gased on S e results of these M l
s three calculations, a better estimate of the time and cost required to perfors j
4 the remaining calculations cac te me.e for FY 19P8.
l l
!!. TA5K StuxDOWN FOR itAD REACTOR PMA$t (FY 1968) i l'
la. p 1.,Jg1,1g(Qgftpi,l_Morma ttan,,,,agdp e1 H ar t u tt30 Wi e,ll
[
l This task utit be initiated Isandstely 6nd rtil continue as reestres 19 l
gain a fastStarity with the three IJs. le.fc.rmation available et Los Alamos wii) be spplemented by docket inferration from BC and with site visits when
[
suff1ct W familiarity is gained to make the visit meaningful.
i I
Task 2.
C41culation of Mahimus Radiolonical Relette 4.
Develop core invent 9ry analyses and apply them to the three LRs for en operating history of the maximum authorised power level long i
l enough to achieve equilibrius fission product levels. toth high and low. enrich *.t fuels will be considered.
I b.
Use a Master Logic Diagram (RO) to identify potential physical modes I
of core ditruption or other radionuclide sources for each LR.
1 1
.g.
//
m c m -~
am ree w l
_._.3 I
D" DRAFT i
J
- c. The mas,laus eatent of cere d6 mete for each mode identified in the prevleus step and the fission product release essociated with tAis l
denote will be determined using available nothods. If no methods exist f6r a given requirement, an approximste and conservative j
entlytical tool c111 be developed based on the best terrent knowledge.
{
d.
The effects of physitel decontamination fetters en the radionuclide i
tr.ns, ort.in se ceicoisted osing c.,renii, sue, tem.o
.nd l
site specific informatien fer each LA.
e.
The whole body redist10n dose and thsteld dose from iodine will be
[
calculated in rem using currently eccepted methods for thi potential l
releases identified for each LR. Mean meteorological conditions et each LR will be assumed.
l f.
This stod, um be terminated for those snes with no id.3sified sequence leading to at least a 10 CFR Part 20 release.
{
.i g.
For those LRs that have sequences encoeding 10 CFR 20 or 10 CFR 100 i
rele6ses, the entent of core dem6te leading to these releases will be r
calculated by scaling of resvite from previous calculations in Task i
2.4.
j h.
All resvits free tht foretsibg criculation6 ul11 te documented 6nd i
tubmitte6 to WC en en intma tk.nical repert.
j I
Tesk 3. Determinetten of SNrcLe,fD3 6.
For each d6 meet mode cepable of rsst) ting in et least a 10 CFR P6rt to t.r 1M emplosiv$gr lease the cedible stuces of such damage (for examp j
s/or inc isrj devices) wil) be identified.
l
[
b.
Using explosive yie1J, strdctural response, 6nd other snelyses, the amount and placement of domest sources resviting in the meatmum release wi11 be determined assuming no mitigating system functions and essuming that the adversary has direct access to all re6cter 1
components.
l
- c. The celeviations'of Tesk 3 will be repeated allowing safepwards credit for'eny physical barriers blocking direct access to the l
reactor fuel.
l d.
The results of this tssk wi11 be reported in en interim report to the WC.
1 10 g
as sa w au - m en re m e
__-.,...m_. _.
,_,..____..,._.-,__..,.,,,___-_,..._..,__-_,....,..,______________.______.__________.____._-._.e
l I
Tesk 4 kalina of Demose levrees to 10 CFR 10 end 10 Crt 100 j
4.
The relW1ts of Task 3 will be scaled to determine the dem6pe sevrees leading to 10 CPR 20 end 10 CFR 100 releases.
b.
The rescits of %is task will be reported along with Task 3 in en l
interim report to %e WC.
1 I
Task 6, Determinetten of Wiseseration keneries a.
Using LR syntes descriptions, damage modes from Task I,'and d6m6te sources from Task 3 a system logic model (foult. tree) 6pproach will be used to deterstne sabotege scenaries resulting from unauthorised eperation of reacter controls, systems, or fuels, j
b.
The reluits of %is tesk will be documented in an interim report for l
l the NRC.
l Telk 6.
Nitiettine Systess Effects a.
Using the sabotage scenaries developed in Task I, the effect of mittgoting systems en radienvclide release will be insikded using
{
systemlogicmodels(feulttroot)todstorminetheeffectsofboth fv11 and partial operatier, of sittgating systeejs,,,4 c
4A. Usin u insights of t.sk s e, abeye, identif,.ddition.1 er modified safety features or seministrative practices tht could be i
g?
5
/
adoptodawill be %4e.
l C.
The 'results of this task will be deevnentet in en fateriw rer4rt for ths *C.
Yesk 7.
Pror(_ts plan for FY 1986 l
Upen the senclusica of the LR analysvi, a detailed plan for cespleting the reonining five nonpower reactors in FY 1944 ut11 be~ formulated and j
submitted to the NRC.
6 j3
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NOTE To FILMi'*
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October 16, 1984 i
Reference Los Alemos Letter ADC-44-F505, Deted October 9, 1984 From Allen L. Jennings To Donald M. Corleon For my conversation with Terry Bott this day, the proposal ette,ched to I
the referenced letter will be amended to reflect our concerns which were discussed during the october 10, 1984, meeting here in 18488. The follow-l ing persons ettended that meetingt
[
m iak W.B. Brown T.F.Sott i
R.R.Rentschler W.Cregory
[
R.J.Dube
}
C.J.Withee D.M.Cerleon Hence, no action v$11 be takta on this letter.
D.M.C.
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