ML16256A145
| ML16256A145 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Waterford  |
| Issue date: | 08/25/2016 |
| From: | Entergy Operations |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| Shared Package | |
| ML16256A115 | List:
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| References | |
| W3F1-2016-0053 | |
| Download: ML16256A145 (72) | |
Text
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3
2.1-1 Revision 308 (11/14)
2.0 SITE CHARACTERISTICS 2.1 GEOGRAPHY AND DEMOGRAPHY 2.1.1 SITE LOCATION AND DESCRIPTION 2.1.1.1 Specification of Location The Waterford 3 site is located on the west (right descending) bank of the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and New Orleans, Louisiana. The site is in the northwestern section of St.
Charles Parish, Louisiana, near the towns of Killona and Taft. Figure 2.1-1 shows the site in relation to the region within 50 miles; Figure 2.1-2 shows the area within five miles of the site.
The geographic coordinates for the Waterford 3 reactor are Latitude 29° 59 42" North, and Longitude 90° 28 16" West. Based on the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 15, the UTM coordinates are 3,320,744 meters northing, and 743,963 meters easting.
The Waterford site is located adjacent to the Mississippi River, at River Mile 129.6. The River itself is the most prominent natural feature of the region. Other important natural features include Lac des Allemands, about 5.5 miles southwest of the site, and Lake Pontchartrain, about seven miles northeast of the site.
The land slopes gently from its high points near the River (+10 to 15 ft. MSL) to extensive wetlands located about 1.5 to 2.5 miles inland from the River.
(DRN 01-364, LBDCR 14-023, R308)
Most of the man-made features are located on the narrow strip of dry land between the Mississippi River and the wetlands. Near the Waterford site are several large industrial facilities, including Waterford SES Units 1 and 2 (0.4 mile west-northwest of Waterford 3), little Gypsy SES Units 1, 2 and 3 (0.8 mile north northeast of the site, across the River), Mosaic (formerly IMC Agrico), a fertilizer manufacturer (0-6 mile east-southeast) and Occidental Chemical Corporation (formerly Hooker Chemical Company) (0.8 mile east-southeast). Entergy owns and operates the above mentioned generating stations. Other large industries are located along the Mississippi River both north and south of the site as far as Baton Rouge and New Orleans. These industries are predominantly refineries, petrochemicals manufacturers, sugar manufacturers, and grain elevators.
(LBDCR 14-023, R308)
Transportation facilities near the Waterford site include the Mississippi River (0.2 mile from the site),
Louisiana Highway 18 (0.1 mile north-northeast), Louisiana Highway 3127 (1.1 miles south-southwest),
Louisiana Highway 628 (0.7 mile north-northeast, across the River) and the Union Pacific Railroad (0.5 mile south-southwest).
Important urban centers in the region of the site include New Orleans (25 miles east-southeast) and Baton Rouge (50 miles west-northwest). Communities near the site include Killona (0.9 mile west-northwest), Montz (1.0 mile north), Norco (3.5 miles east), Hahnville (3.7 miles east southeast), and Laplace (4.7 miles north). All of the communities near the site except Laplace are located in St. Charles Parish. Laplace is located in St. John the Baptist Parish. The Waterford site is located approximately three miles southeast of the St. John the Baptist Parish boundary.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-2 Revision 15 (03/07)
Other prominent man-made features include the Mississippi River levee system, which at its closest point is 0.1 mile from the Waterford site, and the Bonnet Carre Spillway, a flood control structure 1.3 miles east-northeast of the site.
2.1.1.2 Site Area Map
The Waterford property is shown on Figure 2.1-2. The property is owned by Entergy and includes 3,561.3 acres. The plant area itself covers 40.1 acres. The Waterford plant area is defined as including the fenced area immediately adjacent to Waterford 3. This site area is shown, along with principal station structures and nearby features, on Figure 2.1-3. The site area includes only station structures for Waterford 3, and does not include any residential, recreational, or other industrial structures. There are no visitors' center or-other recreational facilities within the site area. There is an Energy Education Center, which is made up of the Visitor's Center, Training Facility and Emergency Operations Facility, and a Baseball Diamond for company functions located on Entergy property adjacent to Highway 3127.
The exclusion area and low population zone are shown on Figure 2.1-2. The radius of the exclusion area from the center of the reactor is 914 meters (about 3000 ft.-). The low population zone includes that area within approximately two miles (3300 meters) of the reactor.
(DRN 01-364) 2.1.1.3 Boundaries for Establishing Effluent Release Limits
(DRN 06-624, R15)
The restricted area, defined for the purpose of controlling access and egress to and from the site, coincides with the plant security fence. Access and egress to the restricted area is controlled by a security organization on the site. Authority to enter the area is given to plant personnel, authorized contractor personnel, and authorized visitors only. Before entry is authorized to a new employee or visitor such a person may be subject to radiological safety training, and may be issued a DLR (dosimeter of legal record) badge for recording-personal-exposure to radiation. Unauthorized access is prevented by physical barriers, closed-circuit TV cameras, security force patrols, intrusion detection equipment, and access control. These measures are described in greater detail in Section 13.6 and the Security Plan which is submitted under separate cover. Radiation monitors are also located at the exit to the plant-protected area for radiation protection purposes at egress from the area.
(DRN 06-624, R15)
(DRN 03-2055, R14)
For the purpose of establishing effluent release limits in accordance with 10CFR20 and Appendix I to 10CFR50, the concept of the restricted area, as defined above for the purpose of access and egress control is not applicable. The effluent release limits are established in order to ensure that (1) the concentration of the radionuclides in gaseous effluent at the point of discharge from the plant stack and exhaust systems do not exceed the effluent concentration limits set forth in Table 2, Column 1 of Appendix B to 10CFR20 (2) the concentration of radionuclides in liquid effluent at the point of discharge from the circulating water discharge structure do not exceed ten times the effluent concentration limits set forth in Table 2, Column 2 of Appendix B to 10CFR20 and (3) the cumulative liquid and gaseous radionuclide releases do not result in exposures to individuals outside the site boundary in excess of the limits set forth Appendix I to 10CFR50.
(DRN 03-2055, R14)
Radioactive effluent release points and nearest distances to the boundary line are shown in Figure 2.1-4.
As discussed in Subsection 11.2.4, the primary liquid radioactive waste release
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-3 Revision 12 (10/02) point is the circulating water discharge canal. The concentration of effluents in this discharge will be well below the 10CFR20 limits as shown in Table 11.2-13.
¨(DRN 01-1282)
Gaseous radioactive effluent releases to the atmosphere are located at the plant stack and the Turbine Building ventilation exhaust. The Main Condenser Evacuation System exhaust and the Turbine Gland Seal System exhaust are not normally radioactive, with the release point being as indicated in Figure 2.1-4.
However, as described in Subsection 10.4.2, an alternate release point for the Turbine Gland Seal System exhaust is the plant stack. As discussed in Sections 11.3 and 12.2, the radioactive releases listed here are lower than the limits set forth in 10CFR20.
(DRN 01-1282) 2.1.2 EXCLUSION AREA AUTHORITY AND CONTROL 2.1.2.1 Authority
¨ (DRN 01-364)
Entergy will have full control of all activities conducted within the exclusion area boundary of the Waterford 3 site. All of the property within the designated exclusion area is owned by the licensee with the exception of the bottom lands below the mean low water of the Mississippi River.
Entergy owns, in title, all surface rights within the exclusion area boundary of the plant. There is presently no intention to allow exploration for subsurface minerals from points on the surface of the exclusion area.
Entergy is the fee owner of the lands immediately adjoining the exclusion zone for Waterford 3. Entergy is the full or partial owner of the mineral rights on such property. Entergy has no intention of executing mineral leases for drilling on this property, however, if this were contemplated, a condition of the lease agreement would be a restriction prohibiting directional drilling into the subsurface below the exclusion zone.
If drilling for minerals is contemplated on adjoining lands held by other ownership, Entergy would be included in the drilling unit(s) as a Leasee with the right to require directional drilling restrictions in mineral leases.
The Mississippi River, Louisiana Highway 18, the Union Pacific Railroad right-of-way, and the west (right descending) bank levee of the Mississippi River constitute traversals of the site exclusion area as allowed by 10CFR100.3 (a). Refer to the Waterford 3 Emergency Plan Implementing Document for the arrangements which have been made to give Entergy authority and control over these traversals.
(DRN 01-364) 2.1.2.2 Control of Activities Unrelated to Plant Operations
¨ (DRN 01-364)
In addition to Waterford 3, there are two fossil-fueled units, Waterford SES Units I and 2, which are owned by Entergy and which are within the site exclusion area. The plant staff for these two units consists of about 30 people. Since this includes workers assigned to shifts, it is a conservative estimate of the maximum number of fossil plant personnel that would be within the exclusion area at any given time. Evacuation procedures for Waterford SES Units 1 and 2 are described in the Waterford 3 Emergency Plan Implementing Document.
As a portion of the site exclusion area to the south, southeast, southwest, and northwest of the Waterford 3 nuclear plant island structure may continue to be used for agricultural
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-4 purposes, it is possible that 50-60 farm workers will be on the site at various times. Evacuation procedures for these farm workers are described in the Waterford 3 Emergency Plan Implementing Document.
Fishing in the Mississippi River from the batture is an occasional practice in the Waterford area. An estimated maximum of 10 people may be engaged in this activity within the exclusion area at any given time. Evacuation procedures for these persons from the batture are described in the Waterford 3 Emergency Plan Implementing Document.
Texaco maintains a gas valve station east-southeast of the Waterford 3 nuclear plant island structure just within the radius of the exclusion area. This valve station is automated and requires only periodic monthly maintenance involving, typically, two persons. Evacuation procedures for these maintenance workers are described in the Waterford 3 Emergency Plan Implementing Document.
2.1.2.3 Arrangements For Traffic Control The site exclusion area is traversed on the northeast side by the Mississippi River and State Highway 18 and on the southwest by the Union Pacific Railroad. The Mississippi River traverses the exclusion area approximately 900 ft. from the Reactor Building State Highway 18, which parallels the Mississippi River, traverses the exclusion area approximately 500 ft. from the Reactor Building. The Union Pacific railroad traverses the exclusion area approximately 2,700 ft. from the Reactor Building. These traffic traverses are not a factor in the normal operation of the plant.
In the event of an emergency, all traffic traversing the exclusion area is subject to control. Detailed information concerning the arrangements for control of traffic within the exclusion area are described in the Emergency Plan Implementing Document.
2.1.2.4 Abandonment or Relocation of Roads There are no public roads subject to abandonment as a result of the construction of Waterford 3.
A section of State Highway 18, which traverses the site exclusion area, was relocated to facilitate the construction of the Circulating Water System. This section, which is approximately 3,000 ft. long, was relocated a maximum distance of approximately 40 ft. to the southwest of the original location.
The required relocation permits were obtained from the State of Louisiana Department of Highways.
2.1.3 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION*
Existing and projected populations by annular sectors are found on Table 2.1-1, which shows the population with 10 miles of Waterford 3 and the population between 10 and 50 miles from the plant.
Population was estimated for 1977, and then projected for the years, 1980, 1981 (plant start-up date),
1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030. The methodologies for estimating and projecting population are described in Subsection 2.1.3.7.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-5 2.1.3.1 Population Within 10 Miles Figures 2.1-5 through 2.1-12 show the distribution of present and projected population within 10 miles of Waterford 3. The estimated 1977 population within 10 miles of the plant is 50,970 persons, concentrated mainly in towns along the banks of the Mississippi River. The area within 10 miles of the plant includes St. Charles and St. John the Baptist Parishes. St. Charles Parish has an estimated 1977 population of 34,125 persons, while St. John the Baptist Parishs 1977 population is 26,026.
a)
Towns Within 10 Miles Table 2.1-2 shows towns with populations over 1000 persons within 10 miles of the plant.
The closest town to Waterford 3 is Killona, 0.9 miles west-northwest. Killona has an estimated 1977 population of 1,203 persons. Other towns near the plant include Norco (1977 population 5,236), 1.9 miles east, Hahnville (1977 population 2,655), 3.7 miles east-southeast, and Laplace (1977 population 6,521) 4.7 miles north. The largest town within 10 miles of the plant is Reserve (1977 population 6,990), six miles to the northwest. Other towns within 10 miles include Luling (1977 population 3,700), seven miles southeast of the plant, Mimosa Park (1977 population 1,877), nine miles southeast, St. Rose (1977 population 2,432), nine miles east-southeast, and Garyville (1977 population 2,710), nine miles west-northwest. There are also many smaller settlements and individual homes along both banks of the River. The nearest such place to Waterford 3 is Montz, one mile north of the plant on the east (left descending) bank of the Mississippi River. The locations of the above towns and settlements are shown in Figures 2.1-2 and 2.1-13.
b)
Population by Annular Sectors The most heavily populated annular sectors within 10 miles of the plant are those which cover the above named towns. The most populous annular sector is east-southeast (ESE) 5-10 (1977 population 7,350), which includes St. Rose, part of Luling and the riverbank settlements of Destrehan and St. Rose.
The population information in the Emergency Plan is updated as new 10-year census data becomes available. The data in this FSAR Section provided population estimates as required for obtaining an operating license. This is now historical population data and is no longer required to be updated.
c)
Population by Annuli The area within five miles of the plant is somewhat more densely populated than the 5-10 mile annulus, primarily because the 0-5 mile area includes a higher ratio of usable land to wetlands than does the 5-10 mile annulus. The population density within five miles of the plant is 224.9 persons per square mile (1977 population 17,268) compared with a density of 143 persons per square mile in the 5-to-10 mile annulus (1977 population 33,702).
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-6 Revision 11 (05/01)
The area within two miles of the plant is considerably less densely populated than the 3-5 mile annulus. The 0-2 mile annulus has a total 1977 population density of 141.1 persons per square mile (1977 population 1,774), while the 3-5 mile annulus has a total 1977 density of 234.9 persona per square mile (1977 population 15,494). The inner area consists mostly of Entergy property and industrial users, with settled areas only at Killona and Montz. The outer area, between three and five miles from the plant, includes the towns of Norco and Hahnville, parts of Laplace, and settlements at Good Hope, New Sarpy, Gypsy and Lucy.
(DRN 01-364) d)
Population by Sectors The most populous sectors within 10 miles of the plant are east-southeast (ESE), northwest (NW), and north (N). The ESE direction includes Hahnville, part of Luling, St. Rose, Destrehan, parts of New Sarpy and numerous smaller settled areas along the Mississippi River. The NW direction includes Killona, Edgard and Reserve. The N sector includes Montz and Laplace.
e)
Projected Population Population within 10 miles of Waterford 3 is expected to more than double during the life of the plant from 50,970 persons in 1977 to 109,396 persons in 2030. The area should grow more rapidly in its eastern portion, closer to New Orleans. In the eastern part of the study area, St. Charles Parish is expected to grow from its 1977 population of 34,125 persons to 84,286 by 2030, a 147 percent increase. This amounts to a 1.8-percent annual growth rate.
To the west, St. John the Baptist Parishs population is projected to increase from 26,086 in 1977 to 46,564 in 2030, which is a 78.5 percent increase, or 1.1 percent per year growth rate.
The principal growth influences within 10 miles of the plant are expected to be the spread of population outward from the New Orleans area and the completion in 1981 of a new regional highway network, including I-310 from I-10 to Luling, and Louisiana Highway 3127 from Killona westward(1) (2) (3). The resulting improvement in accessibility of the Lucy-Edgard-Wallace area, the Hahnville-Luling Mimosa Park area, and the Destrehan-St. Rose area should bring significant growth pressure to bear on those towns and nearby land. Examples of expected growth are the NW 3-4 annular sector near Edgard and Lucy, with no population in 1977 and a projected 2030 population of 1405 persons; the SE 4-5 annular sector between Hahnville and Luling, with a 1977 population of 429 and a projected population of 3062 in 2030; and the ESE 5-10 annular sector including St. Rose and Destrehan, with a population of 7,350 in 1977 and an expected 2030 population of 18,155. These three annular sectors are directly in the path of the above mentioned highway improvements.
The population growth rates of the area between two and 10 miles from the plant are expected to be somewhat higher than statewide or national growth rates, while within two miles of the plant, the growth rate should be lower. Population increases in Louisiana are expected to average 0.8 percent per year from 1975 to 2000,(4) and in the U.S. the average growth between 1977 and 2000 is expected to be 1.2 percent per year(5)(6). Population within two miles of the plant is
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-7 expected to grow from 1,774 persons in 1977 to 2,317 persons in 2030. This as an increase of only 30.6 percent over 52 years, or 0.5 percent per year. The 3-5 mile annulus, however, is expected to grow from 15,494 persons in 1977 to 36,384 in 2030, a 134.8 percent increase, amounting to 1.7 percent per year. The 5-10 mile annulus is projected to grow from a population of 33,702 in 1977 to 70,695 in 2030, an increase of 109.8 percent, or 1.4 percent per year.
Further information on expected growth and development within five miles of Waterford 3 is contained in Subsection 2.1.3.4.
2.1.3.2 Population Between 10 and 50 Miles Figure 2.1-14 shows the distribution of present population in the area between 10 and 50 miles from Waterford 3. The estimated 1977 population between 10 and 50 miles from the plant is 1,592,676 persons, which amounts to 96.9 percent of the 1,643,646 persons within 50 miles of the plant. The bulk of this population is concentrated in an around New Orleans, the regions major city. The New Orleans Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA), consisting of Jefferson, Orleans, St. Bernard and St. Tammany Parishes, has an estimated 1977 population of 1,131,472 or 68.1 percent of the total population within 50 miles of the plant. East Baton Rouge Parish, which includes the state capitol city of Baton Rouge, has an estimated 1977 population of 321,647 (much of East Baton Rouge Parish lies outside the 50 mile annulus).
Population within the regions remaining 17 parishes consists of towns and settlements along the natural levees of rivers flowing through the Mississippi delta, and along the land transportation routes of the upland parishes north and west of Lake Pontchartrain.
a)
Cities and Towns Within 50 Miles Table 2.1-3 lists towns with a 1977 population of over 10,000 persons within 50 miles of Waterford 3. The largest, of course, is New Orleans (1977 population 562,560), followed by Baton Rouge (1977 population 187,194). Jefferson Parish, immediately to the west of New Orleans, includes several major cities, towns and communities the largest of which are Metairie (1977 population 137,438), Kenner (1977 population 38,524), Marrero (1977 population 37,436) and Gretna (1977 population 32,093). Slidell, the major city in St.
Tammany Parish immediately north of New Orleans, has an estimated 1977 population of 19,586 persons. Other important regional cities not in the New Orleans or Baton Rouge areas include Houma (1977 population 34,522) in Terrebonne Parish, Morgan City (1977 population 18,527) in St. Mary Parish, and Thibodaux (1977 population 16,342) in Lafourche Parish. The locations of the above cities are shown on Figure 2.1-14.
b)
Population by Annular Sectors The most heavily populated annular sectors in the area between 10 and 50 miles from Waterford 3 are those which cover the major population centers. The E 20-30 annular sector contains most of the city of New Orleans. The annular sectors 1977 population is estimated at 555,731. The two next largest annular sectors cover areas adjacent to New Orleans: E 10-20 (Jefferson and St.
Charles Parishes) has a 1977
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-8 Revision 11-A (02/02) population of 215,564 persons, and ESE 20-30 (Orleans and Jefferson Parishes) has 170,248.
These three annular sectors alone account for 59.1 percent of the population between 10 and 50 miles from the plant. The next most populous annular sector is NW 40-50, with 86,743 persons.
This annular sector covers the Baton Rouge area.
c)
Population by Annuli The most densely populated annulus is that between 20 and 30 miles from the plant, with an estimated 1977 population of 812,017 persons, which amounts to 516.9 people per square mile.
This annulus covers New Orleans and areas north and south of that city. The 10-20 mile annulus has a population density of 301.1 persons per square mile (1977 population 283,823). This annulus includes a large part of Jefferson Parish. The outer annuli (30-40 miles and 40-50 miles from the plant) are considerably less densely populated because they include large areas of wetlands, and rural areas. The 30-40 mile annulus has a 1977 population density of 125.8 persons per square mile (1977 population 276,593), while the 40-50 mile annulus has a density of only 77.9 people per square mile (1977 population 220,242).
d)
Population by Sectors The most populous sectors between 10 and 50 miles from the plant are also those which cover the New Orleans area. Sectors E and ESE have estimated 1977 populations of 828,672 and 220,437 respectively, and densities of 1758.5 persons per square mile, and 467.8 persons per square mile.
Sector NW, extending to Baton Rouge has a 1977 population of 101,866, and a density of 216.2 persons per square mile.
e)
Projected Population
¨(DRN 01-464)
Figures 2.1-15 through 21 show the projected resident population within 50 miles of Waterford 3.
Population between 10 and 50 miles from Waterford 3 is expected to grow by 76.4 percent between 1977 and 2030, or from 1,592,675 in 1977 to 2,809,833 in 2030. That translates into a 1.1 percent annual growth rate, compared to 0.8 percent for Louisiana (1975 to 2000)(4) and 1.2 percent for the U.S. (1977 to 2000)(5)(6) The principal area of growth is expected to include the parishes near New Orleans, especially St. Tammany Parish, which is the nearest upland area to the city. Any expansion of the New Orleans area without further impact on wetland areas would have to take place in St. Tammany Parish(7). St. Tammany Parish is expected to grow from 77,348 persons in 1977 to 265,505 in 2030, an increase of 231.6 percent, or 2.3 percent per year. Other parishes near New Orleans, including Jefferson, St. Bernard and St. Charles (partly within 10 miles of the plant) should also experience considerable growth from 1977 to 2030, ranging from 138 percent for St.
Bernard (1.7 percent annual growth rate) to 155.4 percent for Jefferson (1.8 percent annual growth rate). However, Orleans Parish, which consists entirely of the City of New Orleans, is expected to decline in population from 562,560 in 1970 to 502,823 in 2030. Other regional parishes expecting rapid growth include Ascension and Livingston Parishes, both within the area of influence of Baton Rouge. Ascension Parish lies along the Mississippi River southeast of Baton Rouge. Its population is expected to grow from 43,104 in 1977 to 115,740 in 2030, an increase of 169.5 percent (1.9 percent per year). Livingston Parish is an upland parish east of Baton Rouge. Its expected (DRN 01-464)
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-9 Revision 309 (06/16) population growth is from 44,056 in 1977 to 127,527 in 2030, an increase of 189.5 percent (2.1 percent per year).
In addition to population growth surrounding the major metropolitan areas the region's medium-sized cities can expect continued growth(4). In eastern sections, settlements should continue to locate along the waterways, until there is essentially linear development. As the land bordering the principal highways and waterways becomes completely settled, expansion should proceed into the agricultural land of the natural levees. This type of development is taking place in Houma and Thibodaux, and along the Mississippi River(7). The Houma area including Bayou Cane, is rapidly assuming regional importance(7).
Terrebonne Parish, in which Houma is located, is expected to grow from a population of 84,564 in 1977 to 143,403 in 2030, a 69.6 percent increase (1.0 percent per year). Lafourche Parish, which contains Thibodaux and other rapidly growing communities along Bayou Lafourche, is expected to increase from 74,240 persons in 1977 to 107,075 in 2030, a 44.2 percent increase (0.7 percent per year). Growth is also expected in the Mississippi River parishes of East Baton Rouge (1.1 percent per year), St. John the Baptist Parish (1.1 percent per year) and Plaquemines Parish (0.8 percent per year).
The annular sectors expected to experience the most rapid growth are those covering the fastest growing areas outlined above. The ENE 40-50 annular sector, covering the Slidell area of St.
Tammany Parish, is expected to grow from a population of 31,012 in 1977 to 102,844 in 2030, an increase of 231.6 percent (2.3 percent per year). The annular sectors near New Orleans should also have rapid growth rates: E 10-20 is expected to grow by 1.8 percent per year, while ESE 20-30 should experience a 1.5 percent annual growth rate.
The most rapidly growing annulus should be that between 10 and 20 miles from the plant. A large portion of this annulus includes parts of St. Charles and Jefferson Parishes, two of the fastest growing areas. This annulus is expected to grow from a population of 283,823 in 1977 to 735,166 in 2030, a 159 percent increase (1.8 percent per year). The 20-30 mile annulus, however, is expected to grow by only 28.6 percent (0.5 percent per year), primarily because its major component, the City of New Orleans, is expected to decline in population. The outer annuli (30-40 miles and 40-50 miles from the plant) are expected to more than double their populations. These annuli include St.
Tammany Parish and the area influenced by Baton Rouge.
(LBDCR 15-005, R309) 2.1.3.3 Transient Population The transient population resulting from recreational, industrial and transportation activity within 10 miles of the Waterford 3 site is estimated to be 119,446 persons. This amount represents daily and seasonal variations in the movement or temporary redistribution of persons within the 10 mile zone as ascertained from the available data base. The transient population is expected to increase to about 2.5 times its current size during the 54 year time span analyzed. The year 2030 estimate of transient population is 298,010 persons. Table 2.1-4 is a summary and percent breakdown of the transient population by activity category for the years 1977 and 2030. Table 2.1-5 and Figures 2.1-22 through 29 show peak seasonal and daily transient population projected from 1977 to 2030 by annular sector. A detailed discussion of each activity category is presented in the following subsections. The methodology employed to estimate and project the transient population is discussed in Subsection 2.1.3.8.
(LBDCR 15-005, R309)
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-10 Revision 11 (05/01) 2.1.3.3.1 Recreation There were four sources of recreational population data which were analyzed. Table 2.1-6 is a list of the various activities that the local population engages in at least once in the high quarter of recreational activity.
The total estimated population involved in these activities is 16,416. Possible places where some of these persons may participate in recreational activities are shown on Figure 2.1-30(8)(9).
An estimated 35,500 persons are involved in the activities that were projected by annular sector. These included a reported 12,500 average attendance at football games at five high schools within the 10 mile zone(10), 20,000 in attendance at two annual three day festivals that are held the last weekend in October(11), and an estimate of 3,000 persons at a local stock car race track stadium(12). There is also a festival at the Destrehan Plantation in October which draws 10,000 people(11). Figure 2.1 shows the locations of these facilities while Table 2.1-7 shows the existing and future estimates for these activities by annular sector. The area within 10 miles of the site contains no state parks.
2.1.3.3.2 Transportation The area within 10 miles of Waterford 3 is serviced by auto, rail and waterborne transportation modes.
There is one public airstrip within the area but no passenger activity occurs there. Figure 2.1-31 shows 1977 and 2030 traffic volumes for the entire transportation network within 10 miles of the plant. These volumes represent a count of the people and not vehicles. The estimated population is 78,598 per day; 90 percent or 70,551, are derived from the Highway network(13) 9.6 percent or 7,514 persons, are derived from waterborne sources(15)(17) and 0.7 percent is derived from rail activity(14). For vehicles on the Highway network and ferries carrying vehicles, 1.5 and 1.79 person per auto occupancy factors were used(16). Table 2.1-8 shows the projected transportation related transient population for the 54 year time span analyzed.
(DRN 01-364) 2.1.3.3.3 Industrial Employment Peak daily transient population resulting from industrial employment within 10 miles of Waterford 3 is shown on Table 2.1-9. Figure 2.1-32 shows the location of industrial facilities within 10 miles of Waterford 3. Table 2.1-9 shows both existing and projected peak industrial employment by annular sectors. The peak daily industrial employment represents the largest number of employees at the plants at any given time. In most cases, this is during the day shift. The projection methodology is explained in Subsection 2.1.3.8. Figure 2.1-32 is a map of existing industrial facilities and industrial properties assumed to be available for development during the operating life of Waterford 3.
In 1977, there was a total of 5,324 industrial employees within 10 miles of Waterford 3. Of these, 3,230 worked within five miles of Waterford 3. These totals do not include construction workers on capital improvement projects at the industrial sites because it would be speculative to predict where and when such projects will take place. In such instances, the number of employees at a particular site, and therefore in a particular annular sector,
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-11 Revision 11 (05/01) could be larger than those shown on Table 2.1-9. Generally large construction projects last for two to five years.
The industries within 10 miles of Waterford 3 include chemical manufacturers, oil refineries, oil storage facilities, grain elevators, a sugar producer, and a paper company. The largest manufacturer within the study area, in terms of employment, is Dow Chemical (formerly Union Carbide), with 1225 workers on the day shift(18). Dow Chemical is a diversified chemicals manufacturer producing such products as aromatics, ethylene oxide, epoxy plasticizers and acrylic acid(19). Dow Chemical property is approximately 1.2 miles east-southeast of the Waterford 3 site.
The closest manufacturer to the site is IMC Agrico (formerly Beker Industries), a producer of fertilizer chemicals with a peak of 50 employees at its plant. IMC Agrico property line is 0.6 miles east-southeast of Waterford 3. East of IMC Agrico is the Occidental Chemical Corporation, a manufacturer of chlorine-based chemicals, 0.8 miles from Waterford 3. Occidental and various subcontractors and subsidiaries employ a total of about 400 people on the peak shift. Koch Nitrogen and Nexen Chemical are on Occidental property.
Two other small chemical companies, Basell and Witco, are located adjacent to Dow Chemical, and the Shell Chemical Company, employing 300 people at peak, is located across the Mississippi River in Norco, 2.5 miles from Waterford 3. Other major chemical companies within 10 miles of Waterford 3 include DuPont (peak of 350 employees) 5.3 miles northwest of Waterford 3, and Monsanto (peak of 800 employees) 8.5 miles east-southeast.
There are two refineries located in Norco and Good Hope: the Motiva Refinery (formerly Shell Oil Company) with a daily peak of 800 employees, and the Orion Refinery with a peak of 700 employees. The closest of these to the Waterford site is Motiva, 3.5 miles away. Other refineries with oil storage facilities within 10 miles of Waterford 3 include Texaco (peak of 50 employees) 7.9 miles south-southeast of Waterford 3, Marathon Oil Company (peak of 800 employees) nine miles west-northwest, and International Matex Tank Terminal (peak of 100 employees) nine miles east-southeast.
Other industries within 10 miles of Waterford 3 include the Bunge Grain Elevator Company (peak of 210 employees) 8.3 miles east-southeast of Waterford 3.
Manufacturing is expected to continue its growth in St. John the Baptist and St. Charles Parishes. In the past, the area has been attractive for development of refineries and petrochemicals because of the easy availability of oil resources in the Louisiana coastal areas. Depletion of petroleum resources in Louisiana could have negative effects on these industries, but the construction of the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) should offset declining state resources of-raw materials. Additionally, the fresh water and navigational access provided by the Mississippi River are likely to continue to make the area attractive for industrial development(22). Projections by the U.S. Department of Commerce (20) and projections prepared for the LOOP environmental impact assess (21) were analyzed to determine future industrial employment trends. This analysis indicates that coastal Louisiana employment in petrochemical industries is expected to grow rapidly, by four to five percent per year, while employment in refineries is expected to grow by about one percent per year until
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-12 Revision 14 (12/05) 1990, after which it should level off. Food products industries, which includes grain elevators and sugar producers, are not expected to grow rapidly.
Estimated future industrial employment by annular sectors is shown on Table 2.1-9. These numbers reflect an assumed employment growth at suitable industrial sites along the Mississippi River. In general, the most rapid industrial development is projected to take place southeast and northeast of Waterford 3. There are some large industrial sites within three miles of Waterford 3 and these can be expected to be developed for industrial use during the life of the plant. These properties consist of a 3100-acre parcel owned by Koch Industries immediately to the west of Killona, and the as yet undeveloped portions of the Occidental Chemical Corporation (formerly Hooker Chemical) and Union Carbide properties.
2.1.3.4 Low Population Zone
(DRN 03-2055, R14)
The Low Population Zone (LPZ), which is defined as the area within two miles of the Waterford 3 reactor, was selected on the basis of specifications provided in 10CFR100. Figures 2.1-33 and 34 show topographic features, transportation facilities, and the location of schools, major industrial facilities, and parks within this two-mile area.
(DRN 03-2055, R14) 2.1.3.4.1 Residential Areas The major residential area within the LPZ is the town of Killona, approximately 0.9 miles west-northwest of the site. The 1977 population of Killona was 1,203 persons (see Subsection 2.1.3). Another concentration of population within the LPZ is the community of Montz, located approximately one mile to the north of the plant on the east bank of the Mississippi River.
2.1.3.4.2 Institutions There is one school within the LPZ, Killona Elementary School, which is located slightly less than one mile (approximately 5,100 ft.) from the Reactor Building. Membership in the school in March 1972 was 152 students, which is a decline from a 215 student membership in 1973(23) All other schools are beyond three miles from the plant. (The Killona Elementary School is no longer in use.)
There are no other institutions within the LPZ.
2.1.3.4.3 Parks There are two organized park areas within the LPZ. Killona Park, located approximately 1.1 mile to the northwest of the site, is a 12.5 acre park containing two basketball courts. An additional 12.5 acres is proposed for this park in order to include other athletic facilities for use by the local population. The park now contains baseball fields.
Montz Park is located approximately one mile to the north of the site. This is a nine-acre park containing a baseball field.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-13 Revision 11 (05/01) 2.1.3.4.4 Major Industries
There are nine major industrial facilities within the LPZ: IMC Agrico (formerly Beker Industries), Occidental Chemical Corporation (formerly Hooker Chemical Company), and Dow Chemical (formerly Union Carbide Company). Nexen Chemicals, Koch Nitrogen, Air Products, Praxair, Witco Chemical and Basell Chemical (formerly Shell Chemical).
The closest manufacturer to the site is IMC Agrico, a producer of fertilizer chemicals whose property line is 0.6 miles east-southeast of the site. Peak daily employment at the Agrico plant is 50 persons(25).
East of Agrico is the Occidental Chemical Corporation, a manufacturer of chlorine-based chemicals located 0.8 miles from Waterford 3. Occidental and various sub-contractors a d subsidiaries employ a total of 400 people on the peak shift(26). Also located on the Occidental Chemical property is Koch Nitrogen and Nexen Chemical.
Dow Chemical, approximately 1.2 miles east-southeast of Waterford 3, is a diversified chemicals manufacturer producing such products as aromatics, ethylene oxide, epoxy plasticizers, and acrylic acid. It employs 1,225 workers on the day shift(27).
Two other smaller chemical companies, Basell (formerly Shell Chemical) and Witco, are located adjacent to Union Carbide, with a peak total employment of.50 workers.
(DRN 01-364) 2.1.3.4.5 Transportation Facilities Table 2.1-12 is a listing of the major transportation facilities within the LPZ, including the Mississippi River, the Union Pacific Railroad and major highways.
The nearest distance of each facility to the Waterford 3 site, and traffic volumes are given in the Table.
Traffic volumes are expressed in terms of the average number of persons per day using these transportation corridors.
2.1.3.4.6 Peak Daily Population Distribution Table 2.1-13 shows the 1977 distribution of residential and transient population by annular sector within two miles of Waterford 3. The distribution of population does not include Killona Elementary School, which is considered to consist primarily of resident population from the immediate vicinity. (This school is no longer active.) Nor does this number include attendance at parks, because such statistics were not available. The peak daily population total is the combined total of resident and transient population, representing the largest number of people expected to be in the area on an average day.
2.1.3.5 Population Center The nearest population center, as defined in 10CFR100, is the urbanized area of New Orleans, whose western boundary is 11.6 miles from the Waterford 3 reactor. This boundary line was determined after a study of USGS topographic saps of 1:24,000 (1 in. = 2,000 ft.) scale. The boundary line is coincident with the St. Charles Parish - Jefferson Parish boundary.
In 1970, the population of the New Orleans urbanized area was 961,728(28). This population should grow at least as rapidly as that of the New Orleans SMSA, which consists of Jefferson,
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-14 Orleans, St. Bernard and St. Tammany Parishes. The 1970,SMSA population was 1,045,809, and the 2030 population of the SMSA is projected to be 2,003,991, which represents an annual growth rate of 1.1 percent over the life of the Waterford 3 plant.
It is likely that the New Orleans urbanized area will shift progressively closer to Waterford 3 as the expected urbanization of eastern St. Charles Parish takes place. There should also be substantial growth in and around population centers closer to the plant, although none of these centers is expected to exceed 25,000 persons in population by 2030. Subsection 2.1.3.2 discusses expected population trends near the plant in more detail.
New Orleans also represents the largest concentration of transient population within 50 miles of Waterford
- 3. It is the largest employment center in Louisiana, has the most traffic, and is the largest tourist attraction in the region. in 1970, the New Orleans SMSA had a total employment of 476,260 people(29). In 1975, there were 17,328 hotel and motel rooms in the New Orleans SMSA, with the addition of another 2,942 rooms due for completion by 1977(30). These rooms are completely occupied during Sugar Bowl Weekend (December 30 - January 1) and Mardi Gras(31).
2.1.3.6 Population Density The cumulative resident population and cumulative population density for 1981 and 2030 are given in Tables 2.1-10 and 2.1-11 for a distance of 30 miles in all directions from the Waterford site. The largest concentration of population for 1981 is in the East (E) sector, with a cumulative population within 30 miles of the plant of 797,066 and a cumulative density of 4510.6 persons per square mile.
Cumulative resident population density in 1981 for all sectors out to 30 miles is also compared in Table 2.1-10 with a uniform population density of 500 persons per square mile. Out of a total of 128 cumulative annular sectors within 30 miles of the site, twelve, or nine percent, exceed the density of 500 persons per square mile. These fall generally within the East and ESE sectors and are representative of the population centers in and around New Orleans. The only high density cumulative annular sectors close to the plant are WNW 1 and 2, which encompass the town of Killona, adjacent to the Applicants property.
For the year 2030, the largest concentration of population within 30 miles is expected to be in the E sector, with a cumulative population of 1,116,644, and a density of 6319.1 persons per square mile. In comparing the 2030 cumulative population to 30 miles in all directions from the plant site with a uniform population density of 1000 persons per square mile, it is found that a total of 10, or approximately eight percent of the 128 cumulative sectors have population densities greater than 1000 persons per square mile. These densities occur primarily within the E, ESE and WNW sectors mentioned earlier.
2.1.3.7 Methodologies for Estimating and Projecting Resident Population Estimates and projections of resident population were carried out by two different methodologies, one applying to the area within 50 miles of Waterford 3 (Methodology A) and the other applying only to that area within five miles of Waterford 3 (Methodology B). Methodology A estimated current and projected populations by annular sectors in the area between five and 50 miles from the plant, and for the total area (not by annular sectors) within five miles of the plant. Methodology B utilized the estimates of current population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-15 and projections of population totals within five miles of the plant, as derived in Methodology A, and allocated these totals by annular sector on the basis of an analysis of residential development suitability. Table 2.1-14 summarizes these methodologies.
The population data was estimated for 1977, and then projections were prepared for the years 1980, 1981 (the date of plant start-up), 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030. The two methodologies are described in detail below.
Methodology A:
0-50 Miles Population by annular sectors in the region within 50 miles of Waterford 3 was calculated for 1977 and the projection years between 1980 and 2030 by the following method:
a)
USGS Maps (scale 1:250,000) of the area within 50 miles of the plant site were overlaid by annular sectors defined by annuli at five, 10, and then every 10 miles out to 50 miles from the plant, and by sectors centered on the sixteen cardinal compass points, with the northernmost sector centered on true north. The area within five miles of the plant was considered as a unit.
b)
The boundaries of all parish sub-divisions (including wards, towns and unincorporated areas) shown in the 1970 US Census(48) were drawn on the USGS Maps. In the area between 0 and 10 miles, the boundaries of US Census enumeration districts were drawn. The boundaries of water and wetlands, within 50 miles of Waterford 3 as indicated on the USGS maps, were also drawn.
c)
The percentage of the area of each parish sub-division within each annular sector, excluding water and wetlands areas, was calculated. This measurement was done by a Bendix digitizer in March, 1977. In some cases, the percentages were calculated manually where more detailed information on population distribution was available. This was the case in several instances inside the 10-mile annulus and in New Orleans.
d)
The 1970 population of each parish sub-division was calculated as a percentage of that parish. These percentages were then applied to parish populations for each projection period to arrive at population projections for each parish sub-division. The parish projections were based on those published by the University of New Orleans (UNO) College of Business Administration(49),
which are the most recent and widely used population projections in the State. The projections utilized a natural increase - net migration model incorporating fertility, mortality, and migration statistics. Series two of the UNO projections was used. There are three different series of projections, each based upon different migration assumptions. Series one projections assume that migration rates throughout the projection period would remain the same as they were in the 1960-1970 period. Series three assumes zero net migration. Series two embodies the following assumptions (only those pertinent to the area within 50 miles of Waterford 3 are listed)(49):
1)
The nation will continue to experience periods of high-priced fuel.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-16 Revision 11-A (02/02) 2)
Rural-to-urban and inner-urban-to-suburban migrations will continue, but at reduced rates. Slowing down rural-to-urban migration will be the fact that large-scale mechanization of agriculture has already occurred; slowing down inner-urban-to-suburban migration will be the increasing cost of travel.
3)
Net out-migration rates of blacks will be lowered, as they look more closely at nearby locations rather than moving out of the State.
4)
Stabilization will occur in most university enrollments, with an increase in the percentage of students attending graduate school. More students are expected to register in universities nearer to their homes.
5)
The trend of growth of medium-sized towns will continue.
6)
With the exception of I-310 all planned interstate highways are expected to be completed and open by 1980. It was assumed that only that portion of I-310 crossing the Mississippi River near Luling would be built(50).
7)
The federal flood insurance regulations will grow stronger over time.
¨(DRN 01-464)
The UNO parish population projections were for the years 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000; therefore projections coinciding with NRC projection years were used. For the years 1977 and 1981, linear interpolations between the UNO projections were used. After 2000, the growth rate in the period 1990-2000 was assumed to continue to 2030. This assumption was felt to be relatively safe and conservative in light of the speculative nature of such distant-future projections.
(DRN 01-464) e)
The resulting population projections for each parish subdivision were evaluated, taking into account 1960 and 1970 population changes. In the few cases where the mechanical projection technique specified in "d" above provided unlikely results, the population projections for those parish subdivisions were calculated manually based upon past treads.
f)
The area percentages of each parish sub-division, within given annular sectors (from step "c" above), were applied to the parish subdivision projections in order to allocate the population among annular sectors.
g)
The population projections for each parish sub-division by annular sector were summed to arrive at the total population by annular sector.
h)
Population projections for each annular sector were evaluated, and adjusted manually if necessary. This was the case in only one instance (Annular Sector E-20-30) in the New Orleans area, where it was assumed that the land within the annular sector would be entirely built up by the year 2000, and any population increases thereafter would be allocated to surrounding annular sectors.
In Methodology A, the area within five miles of Waterford 3 was considered as one annular sector, and a total population projection within that area was arrived at. This population was then allocated to annular sectors within five miles in accordance with Methodology B described below.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-17 Methodology B:
Inside 5 Miles The existing population by annular sector within five miles of Waterford 3 was estimated by the following method:
a)
USGS maps (scale 1:24,000) of the area within five miles of Waterford 3 were overlaid with annular sectors defined by annuli every mile out to five miles, and by sectors centered on the 16 cardinal compass points.
b)
These annular sector boundaries were transferred to aerial photographs of one in. =
800 ft. flown in February 1977.
c)
Dwelling units shown on the aerial photographs were counted, and then allocated to annular sectors. Where questions existed as to use of a structure as a dwelling unit, or the number of dwelling units contained within a structure, field checks in March 1977 were made to determine the correct situation.
d)
The dwelling unit counts by area, made in step "c", were checked for accuracy against dwelling unit counts carried out in 1973 in St. Charles and St. John Parishes by N-Y Associates(36).
If necessary, re-counts from the aerial photographs were made to be certain of accuracy.
e)
A map of 1970 Census enumeration districts was laid over the map Showing dwelling unit counts by annular sector. 1970 Census population-per-housing-unit factors for appropriate enumeration districts were then applied to dwelling unit counts to derive population estimates by annular sectors.
f)
The resulting estimate of total population within five miles was compared with the same estimate obtained in Methodology A. The higher total was utilized. In this case, the total within five miles of Waterford 3, as developed through Methodology B, was 16,123 persons; the total derived by Methodology A was 17,268 persons, 7.1 percent higher than the first total. The annular sector estimates obtained in step "e" were then increased by 7.1 percent each to arrive at the totals shown for 1977 in Table 2.1-1.
Future population projections by annular sectors for the area within five miles of Waterford 3 were obtained as follows:
a)
The total population of the area within five miles was projected to the year 2030 by Methodology A, which is described above. The increments by projection period were then calculated.
b)
Areas pre-empted from future residential development were identified. These included:
1)
Wetlands; 2)
Areas covered by the Mississippi River, the batture (the area between the levee and the River edge), the levee system, and the Bonnet Carre Floodway;
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-18 Revision 11-A (02/02) 3)
All land currently developed for non-agricultural use; 4)
All land presently zoned for manufacturing(37).
5)
It was assumed that no land between the easternmost and westernmost manufacturing zone lines on the west bank of the Mississippi River would be developed after 1981 for residential use.
No other land was pre-empted from future residential use. The resulting areas remaining for residential use (hereafter referred to as "potential development areas") are substantially in accordance with the present St. Charles Parish zoning ordinance. They are also substantially in accordance with the St. Charles Parish Future Land Use Plan(33),
although that plan has never been formally adopted. Undeveloped industrial sites indicated on promotional maps(38) were not assumed to pre-empt residential use. The supply of unde-veloped industrial land along the Mississippi River, according to these maps, contains considerably more acreage than all of the industrial land which has been developed.
Therefore, it cannot be assumed that the existence of these undeveloped sites will pre-empt other land uses.
c)
Development suitability was assessed for the potential development areas defined in "b" above. Suitability ratings were calculated based upon giving the lowest score to the most highly suitable land for development. Suitability ratings were determined by taking into account the following factors:
¨(DRN 01-464) 1)
An area's accessibility to employment centers, which, in this case, are in New Orleans. This factor was considered to be most important in determining the attractiveness of an area for development(39)(40). To determine a quantitative suitability for every area, the study area was divided by isopleths indicating five-minute driving time differentials. The driving times were determined by timing actual drives to various areas from New Orleans in March 1977. The isopleths were re-mapped to take into account highway improvements projected for 1981. Areas between isopleths were given suitability ratings from one to "n",
with one being the closest area to New Orleans and "n" being the farthest area.
(DRN 01-464) 2)
The suitability of an area's soils for development. USDA general soil maps for St. Charles and St. John Parishes(41)(42) were consulted to define areas with good soils, and areas with the next best soils for development. The former areas were given a suitability rating of 0, the latter one.
3)
An area's potential for flooding. Those areas within the floodplain of the 100
-year storm were identified from the latest Flood Hazard Boundary Maps(43)(44). Areas within the floodplain were given a suitability rating of one, those outside the floodplain 0.
4)
An area's water and sewer services. No sewer service is presently available to potential development areas; water service is available to all areas. Sewer service will probably be supplied to all areas between 1980 and 1990(45).
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-19 Therefore, availability of water and sewer services was not considered to be a differentiating factor for development suitability ratings.
5)
An areas schools and recreational facilities. No plans exist at the present time indicating the future placement of these facilities. Typically, their construction follows residential development in an area. Therefore, development suitability ratings were not assigned to this factor.
Quantitative development suitability ratings were mapped, and then the maps for each factor were overlaid on the base map of the study area. The ratings were then summed, yielding a development suitability score for each area not pre-empted for future development. One map was developed for the 1977-1981 period, and a second for the 1981-2030 period, reflecting changing accessibility of New Orleans, expected after 1981.
d)
The probability of development taking place at each level of development suitability was assessed. The growth rates in four areas between 1973 and 1977 were evaluated in relation to the overall development suitability within each area. The four areas were chosen because they surround population centers near large areas of vacant land where development has been occurring in the recent past. The development suitability factor utilized was a weighted average of all the 1977 suitabilities within the area, taking into account the size of each suitability level. The 1977 suitability levels were used because:
1)
Information on specific areas developed between 1973 and 1977 was not available, and an accurate determination of vacant land in 1973 could not be made; 2)
The four areas considered presently consist mostly of vacant land, and it was felt that the current levels of suitability would accurately reflect the 1973 suitabilities.
With the above data, a regression analysis was used to relate development suitability to dwelling unit growth. The results of this analysis are given in Table 2.1-15. The resulting regression line was used to establish the probabilities of residential development by suitability level shown in Table 2.1-16. Subsequent to 1981, highway improvements within the study area are expected to alter development suitability levels. It is expected that the least desirable levels will no longer be available Probabilities of residential development were adjusted accordingly (see Table 2.1-16).
e)
The population increments for each projection year (see step "a") were allocated to annular sectors as follows:
1)
The population increment was allocated to various levels of suitability according to the probabilities shown in Table 2.1-16.
2)
The area of each suitability level within each annular sector was measured and taken as a percentage of the total area within that level of development suitability. The population within each suitability level, obtained in Step 1) was allocated to each annular sector according to these percentages.
3)
The populations by suitability level within each annular sector were summed to
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-20 arrive at a total population increment by annular sector.
To account for the possibility that the land available within a suitability level could be used up, a running tally was kept of the additional land utilized by suitability level in each projection period. Based upon a study of land use developed statistics in St. John the Baptist and St. Charles Parishes,(46)(47) a factor of seven persons per acre was utilized to simulate the increases in residential land usage within each suitability level. Residential development probabilities were adjusted if land-did run out at a given level of development suitability (see Table 2.1-16).
Methodology B was pursued only within five miles of the plant because of the fine level of detail required to project population within each of the small annular sectors there. Outside of five miles, a more general approach was appropriate because of the considerably larger land area in each annular sector, and Methodology A was utilized.
2.1.3.8 Methodologies for Estimating and Projecting Transient Population The analysis of transient population is an attempt to assess temporary movement or distribution of the population. There were three major land use categories from which this assessment was to be made.
These include recreation, transportation, and industrial activity. The methodology employed to evaluate each source of transient population is discussed below.
2.1.3.8.1 Recreation Four sources of transient population resulting from recreational activity were assessed. These included attendance at high school football games, two annual three day festivals, a drag strip near Laplace and potential attendance at a stock car race track stadium. Population from these sources was reported to be approximately 35,500(53)(54)(55). Estimated attendance at the stadium, dragstrip and the festivals was allocated by annular sector by locating the facilities on a map with the annular sector grid superimposed. Where annular sector grid lines coincided with an activity, this activity was a split evenly between two adjacent sectors. (The LaPlace drag strip is no longer in use.)
In projecting future recreational transient population for the festivals in La Place and Destrehan, growth factors based upon the estimate of the population with 50 miles of Waterford 3 were used (see Subsection 2.1.3-3). This was because most of the people attending these activities will probably travel from distances further than 10 miles from Waterford 3. Attendance at the local high school football stadiums shown on Figure 2.1-30 was assumed to remain the same throughout the life of the plant. It is recognized that the increasing population within 10 miles of Waterford 3 will probably result in the construction of new high schools and therefore additional football stadiums. However, accurate prediction of their locations cannot be made at this time.
In addition to the foregoing, an analysis was made of a survey undertaken by the State Parks and Recreation Commission. This survey contained a participation rate factor which when multiplied by the local population produces total local participation in a variety of activities. The sum of participation for each activity is an estimate of the number of persons involved in recreational activity. Averaging these over time gives the estimated average participation within a specific time frame. For the purposes of this study, the time
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-21 frame was the average Sunday during the peak period of recreational activity which runs from June through August. The estimated population resulting from this analysis was 16,416 (see Subsection 2.1-3.3-1).
Although it was possible to derive a reasonable assessment of the population involved, it was not possible to determine where the people engaged in their activities(51)(52). While it can be assumed that many persons from the survey area use local facilities, it is not unreasonable to assume that some could go outside the 10 mile zone. For this reason no attempt was made to allocate this surveyed population by annular sector.
2.1.3.8.2 Transportation The area within 10 miles of Waterford 3 is served by auto, rail and waterborne transportation modes. There are no significant airports within 10 miles of the site. Traffic estimates as well as growth factors were obtained from principal rail and ship operators in the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development(56)(57)(58)(60). No attempt was made to project future transportation activity by annular sector.
It was felt that to do so would result in overstating transportation activity and consequently overstating the size of the transient population, because the traffic on any given route passing through several annular sectors would be counted in each annular sector. Therefore, projections using the reported growth factors for each mode of travel were prepared and presented in total in tabular form (see Table 2.1-8). In addition, for highway related activity a vehicle occupancy factor of 1.5 was used to produce total traffic on the highway network and(56), for vehicles on ferries a 1.79 occupancy factor was used(59).
2.1.3.8.3 Industrial Employment Industrial employment within 10 miles of Waterford 3 was estimated for 1977 from information provided by industries in the area, which are listed in Subsection 2.1.3.3.3. The industrial employment numbers shown in Table 2.1-9 include only the peak number of workers on a plant site at any given time, which in most cases is the day shift employment.
The number of workers was allocated to annular sectors by superimposing a diagram of annular sectors over a base map showing the developed industrial properties. This is displayed in Figure 2.1-32. Where a property was overlaid by two or more annular sectors, the employment numbers were divided among the annular sectors according to the proportion of the industrial property in each.
Future industrial employment was projected as follows:
a)
The 1977 industrial employment was divided according to categories utilized by the U.S.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis(61). The categories used in this projection were the following:
Chemical and Allied Products Petroleum Refining Food and Kindred Products Paper and Allied Products
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-22 b)
Growth rates for each of the above industrial employment categories were projected to 2030 by analyzing regional projections by the U.S. Department of Commerce(61), and projections prepared for the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) environmental impact assessment(62). Where these sources disagreed, an average growth rate figure was utilized.
c)
Known future expansions for each industry, derived by surveys of the companies involved, were added to 1977 employment figures.
d)
Growth rates arrived at in step "b" were applied to 1977 employment totals to arrive at projected employment for each projection year (1980, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030).
Known future expansion totals from step "c" for each industry were compared with these projections and the higher total was utilized.
e)
Projected employment by industries was allocated to annular sectors as follows:
1)
A map of properties available for industrial use, shown in Figure 2.1-32, was prepared, based upon information obtained from promotional maps for the area(63). Not all the industrial sites shown on these maps were included because other uses were felt more likely to develop on them. Undeveloped portions of existing industrial properties were also included on this map.
2)
The annular sector grid was placed over the map of industrial sites developed above. Projected industrial employment was apportioned according to the percentage of all available undeveloped industrial land falling within each annualar sector. The following assumptions were made in this apportionment:
Known expansions of employment would be allocated to the appropriate developed industrial property; Incremental employment projections above known expansions were allocated evenly to all undeveloped industrial properties; Those portions of undeveloped industrial tracts including wetlands would remain undeveloped.
SECTION 2.1:
REFERENCES 1.
Davis, Donald W, Coastal Zone Management, St. John the Baptist Parish, Nicholls State University, Thibodaux, Louisiana, July 31, 1976.
2.
Ohmer, N. N. and Ohmer, N. P., Coastal Zone Management, St. Charles Parish, Nicholls State University, Thibodaux, Louisiana, 1976.
3.
Telephone Contact, Bill Hickey, Assistant Road Resign Engineer, Louisiana Department of Highways, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, May 25, 1977.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-23 4.
Segal, Harris, et al. Projection to the Year 2000 of Louisiana Population and Households, University of New Orleans, College of Business Administration, Division of Business and Economic Research, New Orleans, Louisiana, 1976.
5.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Population Estimates for the U.S.,"
Current Population Reports (P-25) #700, Washington, D. C., April 1977.
6.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Projections of U.S. Population by Age, Sex, 1975-2000.....," Current Population Reports (P-25) #601, Washington, D. C., October 1975. Series II projections used.
7.
Louisiana State Planning Office, The Coastal Zone: An Overview of Economic, Recreational and Demographic Patterns, Louisiana Coastal Resources Program, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 1976.
8.
Personal Communication, Resource Manager, Louisiana State Parks Recreation Commission, Baton Rouge, La., Dec. 1976.
9.
Outdoor Recreation in Louisiana-(1975-1980), Louisiana State Parks and Recreation Commission, Baton Rouge, La. June, 1974.
10.
Personal Communication, Administrative Assistant for Operations, St. Charles Schools, Luling, La., June, 1977.
11.
Personal Communication, Sheriffs Dept, St. John the Baptist Parish, La Place, La.,
June, 1977.
12.
Personal Communication, Owner, La Place Stock Car Race Track, June, 1977.
13.
Department of Transportation and Development Office of Highways, Baton Rouge, La.,
1977.
14.
Personal Communication: Louisiana and Arkansas Railway Baton Rouge, La., June, 1977; Illinois Central Gulf Railroad, Baton Rouge, La., June, 1977; Missouri Pacific Railroad, Avondale, La., June, 1977; Amtrak Railroad Washington, D.C., June, 1977.
15.
Waterborne Commerce of the United States, Part 2, Waterways and Harbors, Gulf Coast, Mississippi River System, Antilles, U.S. Dept. of the Army, New Orleans, La., 1976.
16.
River Crossings Transportation Feasibility Study St. Charles and St. John the Baptist Parishes, VTN Louisiana, Inc., Metairie, La., February, 1976.
17.
Personal Communications: New Orleans-Baton Rouge Steamship Pilots Association, New Orleans, La., June, 1977; Delta Queen Steamboat Co., June 1977., Arkansas Explorer, 111 East 3rd Street, Little Rock, Arkansas June, 1977; Dock Board, Port of New Orleans, New Orleans, La.,
June 1977.
18.
Employment figures obtained as follows:
ADM Milling, St. Rose, La., Personal Communication, June 22, 1977.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-24 Argus Chemical Company, Taft, La., Personal Communication, April 22, 1977.
Bayside Grain Elevator Co, St. Rose, La., Personal Communication, June 22, 1977.
Beker Industries, Taft, La., Personal Communication April 22, 1977.
Bunge Grain Elevator Co, St. Rose La., Personal Communication, June 23, 1977.
Cargill Co, Reserve, La., Personal Communication, May 23, 1977.
Chevron Oil Co, Good Hope, La., Personal Communication, April 22, 1977.
Coastal Canning Co, Reserve, La., Personal Communication, June 22, 1977.
E.I. DuPont De Nemours & Co, LaPlace, La., Personal Communication, April 22, 1977.
General American Transportation Corp, Good Hope, La., Personal Communication, April 25, 1977.
Godchaux-Henderson Sugar Co, Reserve, La., Personal Communication, May 16, 1977.
Good Hope Refinery, Good Hope, La., Personal Communication, April 25, 1977.
Hooker Chemical Co, Taft, La.:
Hooker Chemical, Personal Communication, April 25, 1977.
Occidental Chemical Co, Personal Communication, April 25, 1977.
International Tank Terminal Co, St. Rose, La., Personal Communication, June 7, 1977.
Marathon Oil Co, Garyville, La., Personal Communication, July 29, 1977.
Monsanto Company, Luling, La., Personal Communication, June 22, 1977.
Sewell Plastics Co, Reserve, La., Personal Communication, May 16, 1977.
Shell Chemical Company, Norco, La., Personal Communication, April 21, 1977.
Shell Oil Company, Norco, La., Personal Communication, April 25, 1977.
St. Charles Grain Elevator Co, St. Rose, La., Personal Communication, June 22, 1977.
St. Joe Paper Co, Reserve, La., Personal Communication, May 23, 1977.
Texaco Inc, Paradise, La., Letter of July 8, 1977.
Union Carbide Corp, Taft, La:
Union Carbide, Personal Communication, April 22, 1977.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-25 H.B. Zarchry Co, Personal Communication, April 22, 1977.
Circle, Inc., Letter of May 4, 1977.
Delta Iron Works, Personal Communication, April 25, 1977.
River Parish Maintenance, Personal Communication, April 25, 1977.
Usamex, St. Rose, La., Personal Communication, June 22, 1977.
Witco Chemical Co., Taft, La., Personal Communication, April 22, 1977.
19.
Chemical products from: Louisiana Chemical Association, Louisiana Chemical Industry Directory, Baton Rouge, La., May, 1976.
20.
1972-E OBERS projections of Population, Employment, Personal Income, and Earnings by Industry... 1950 - 2020 BEA Economic Area 138, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, DC, received from Eugene Janish, Economist, Regional Economic Analysis Division, December 8, 1976.
21.
Final EIS, LOOP Deepwater Port License Application, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Coast Guard, Deepwater Ports Project, Office of Marine Environment and Systems, Washington, DC.
22.
Louisiana State Planning Office, The Coastal Zone: An Overview of Economic, Recreational and Demographic Patterns. Louisiana Coastal Resources Program, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 1976.
23.
Personal Communication, Secretary to Assistant Superintendent and Supervisor of Child Welfare, St. Charles Parish School, Luling, Louisiana, March 22, 1977.
24.
Personal Communication, Parish Director of Recreation, St. Charles Parish, New Sarpy, Louisiana, March 22, 1977.
25.
Personal Communication, Beker Industries, Taft, Louisiana, April 22, 1975.
26.
Personal Communication, Hooker, Chemical Co., Taft, Louisiana, April 25, 1977.
27.
Personal Communication, Union Carbide Corp, Taft, Louisiana, April 22, 1977.
28.
1970 US Census of Population, General Population Characteristics, Louisiana, Table 16.
29.
1972-E OBERS projections of Population, Employment Personal Income, and Earnings by Industry... 1950-2020, BEA Economic Area 138, US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, DC, received from Eugene Janish, Economist, Regional Economic Analysis Division, December 8, 1976.
30.
New Orleans Tourism, Publication Number 317, Chamber of Commerce of the New Orleans Area, Economic Development Council, Business Research Department, New Orleans, La.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-26 31.
Telephone Contact, Bill Langkopp, New Orleans Hotel - Motel Association, New Orleans, La., December 28, 1976.
32.
1972 Land use maps covering Louisiana at a scale of 1: 250,000. Prepared by the Louisiana State Planning Office, under the Land Use and Data Analysis (LUDA) Program, US Geological Survey. Released by the State Planning Office, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 1975.
33.
N-Y Associates, Existing Land Use and Future Land Use Plan, St. Charles Parish, Louisiana, Metairie, Louisiana, 1974.
34.
South Central Planning and Development Commission, Existing Land Use, St. Charles Parish, 1976, Thibodaux, Louisiana, June 1976.
35.
Anderson, James R. et al, A Land Use and Land Cover Classification System for Use with Remote Sensor Data, USGS Professional Paper 964, US Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, Washington DC, 1976.
36.
Housing unit data for the 1973 survey was taken from:
N-Y Associates, Initial Housing Study, St. Charles Parish. Louisiana, Metairie, Louisiana, June 1973.
N-Y Associates, Population Study, St. Charles Parish, Louisiana. Metairie, Louisiana, February 1974.
N-Y Associates, Population Study, St. John the Baptist Parish, Louisiana, Metairie, Louisiana, February 1974.
37.
Zoning Ordinance of St. Charles Parish, adopted December 20, 1966, and subsequently amended; maps reviewed on March 22, 1977 at Parish Courthouse, Hahnville, Louisiana.
38.
Promotional maps consulted included:
"Industrial Opportunities and Resources on Louisianas Lower Mississippi River",
Louisiana Power & Light Company, undated.
"Baton Rouge - New Orleans Available Sites and Industry, Section Number 2",
prepared by the Industrial Development Department Illinois Central Gulf Railroad, Chicago, Ill., March 1976.
39.
Chapin, F. Stuart, Jr., and Weiss, Shirley F, "Land Development Patterns and Growth Alternatives", Chapter 13 of Urban Growth Dynamics In a Regional Cluster of Cities, ed by Chapin and Weiss, John Wiley & Sons, New York, N.Y., 1962.
40.
Kueter, L.R. et al, Dylam/Lakewood: Development of a Land Use Allocation Use Allocation Model, City of Lakewood Department of Community Development, Long Range Planning Division, Lakewood, Colorado, December 1973.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-27 41.
"General Soil Map, St. Charles Parish, Louisiana", US Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, Alexandria, Louisiana, November 1971.
42.
"General Soil Map, St. James Parish and St. John the Baptist Parish, Louisiana", US Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, Alexandria, Louisiana, November 1971.
43.
"Flood Hazard Boundary Map H-01028, St. John the Baptist Parish, Louisiana", US Dept of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Insurance Administration, Region VI, Dallas, Texas, revision of April 8, 1977.
44.
"Flood Hazard Boundary Map H-01-30, St. Charles Parish, Louisiana," US Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Insurance Administration, Region IV, Dallas, Texas, revision of June 28, 1977.
45.
T Baker Smith & Son, Inc., Area Wide Water/Sewer Study - Phase II, for South Central Planning & Development Commission, Thibodaux, Louisiana, June 1975.
46.
Ohmer, N.N., and Ohmer, N.P., Coastal Zone Management, St. Charles Parish, Nicholls State University, Thibodaux, Louisiana, 1976.
47.
Davis, Donald W., Coastal Zone Management, St. John the Baptist, Parish, Nicholls State University, Thibodaux, Louisiana, July 31. 1976.
48.
1970 US Census of Population, Louisiana, Number of Inhabitants, Table 10, US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC.
49.
Segal, Harris, et al. Projection to the Year 2000 of Louisiana Population and House-holds, University of New Orleans, College of Business Administration, Division of Business and Economic Research, New Orleans, Louisiana, 1976.
50.
Telephone Contact, Harris Segal, University of New Orleans, College of Business Administration, Division of Business and Economic Research, New Orleans, Louisiana, June 15, 1977.
51.
Personal Communication, Resource Manager, Louisiana State Parks Recreation Commission, Baton Rouge, La., Dec., 1976.
52.
Outdoor Recreation in Louisiana (1975-1980), Louisiana State Parks and Recreation Commission, Baton Rouge, La., June, 1974 53.
Personal Communication: Administrative Assistant for Operations, St. Charles Schools, Luling, La., June, 1977.
54.
Personal Communication: Sheriffs Dept, St. John the Baptist Parish, La Place, La.,
June, 1977.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 2.1-28 55.
Personal Communication, Owner, La Place Stock Car Race Track, June, 1977.
56.
Department of Transportation and Development, Office of Highways Baton Rouge, La.,1977.
57.
Personal Communication: Louisiana and Arkansas Railway, Baton Rouge, La., June 1977; Illinois Central Gulf Railroad, Baton Rouge, La., June, 1977; Missouri Pacific Railroad, Avondale, La., June 1977; Amtrak Railroad, Washington, DC, June, 1977.
58.
Waterborne Commerce of the United States, Part 2, Waterways and Harbors, Gulf Coast, Mississippi River System, Antines, U.S. Dept of the Army, New Orleans, La., 1976.
59.
River Crossings Transportation Feasibility Study, St. Charles and St. John the Baptist Parishes, VTN Louisiana, Inc. Metairie, La., February, 1976.
60.
Personal Communications: New Orleans-Baton Rouge Steamship Pilots Association, New Orleans, La., June, 1977; Delta Queen Steamboat Co, June, 1977; Arkansas Explorer, Ill East 3rd St, Little Rock, Arkansas, June, 1977; Dock Board, Port of New Orleans, New Orleans, La., June, 1977.
61.
1972-E OBERS projections of Population, Employment, Personal Income, and Earnings by Industry... 1950 - 2020 BEA Economic Area 138, U.S. Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, D.C.
62.
Final EIS, LOOP Deepwater Port License Application, U.S. Dept of Transportation, U.S.
Coast Guard, Deepwater Ports Project, Office of Marine Environment and Systems, Washington, D.C.
63.
Promotional maps consulted included:
"Industrial Opportunities and Resources on Louisianas Lower Mississippi River,"
Louisiana Power and Light Company, undated.
"Baton Rouge -- New Orleans Available Sites and Industry, Section Number 2,"
prepared by the Industrial Development Department, Illinois Central Gulf Railroad, Chicago, Illinois, March, 1976.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-1 (Sheet 1 of 8)
RESIDENT POPULATION WITHIN 50 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 1977 SECTOR 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 TOTAL 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 TOTAL 10-50 TOTAL 0-50 N
0 171 311 870 2120 3149 6621 0
1432 38688 12255 52375 58996 NNE 0
154 0
331 174 404 1063 0
120 11299 11822 23241 24304 NE 63 150 0
0 0
0 213 0
0 8343 10463 18805 19018 ENE 33 0
0 2206 105 0
2344 7504 0
575 31012 39092 41436 E
0 0
99 3380 610 1430 5519 215564 555731 57377 0
828672 834191 ESE 0
0 0
1339 1151 7350 9840 35619 170248 11462 3109 220437 230278 SE 0
0 0
0 429 5130 5559 320 2290 3371 2899 8881 14440 SSE 0
0 0
0 0
1294 1294 1197 2911 9152 4268 17528 18822 S
0 0
0 0
0 179 179 4013 10805 9058 0
23875 24055 SSW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1582 10771 58624 2593 73570 73570 SW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
562 22939 5983 155 29639 29639 WSW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
2249 18124 5583 30423 56379 56379 W
26 307 0
21 0
524 878 5808 2862 11087 5735 25492 26369 WNW 232 435 0
0 0
4515 5182 9332 6771 26045 12649 54797 59979 NW 99 104 108 0
363 7289 7963 71 3391 11661 86743 101866 109829 NNW 0
0 11 497 1369 2438 4315 0
3622 8286 6117 18025 22340 TOTAL 453 1321 529 8644 6321 33702 50970 283822 812018 276593 220242 1592676 1643646 Source: Survey and calculations by Ebasco Services, Inc. Methodology explained in Subsection 2.1.3.7.
+Note: Totals may not always add to last significant figure due to roundoff.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-1 (Sheet 2 of 8)
RESIDENT POPULATION WITHIN 50 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 1980 TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL SECTOR 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 10-50 0-50 N
0 182 334 896 2175 3266 6853 0
1515 40718 12825 55058 61912 NNE 0
171 51 366 325 419 1332 0
127 12145 12756 25029 26361 NE 63 166 5
15 3
0 252 0
0 9021 11314 20335 20587 ENE 33 0
0 2206 105 0
2344 8295 0
622 33535 42452 44796 E
0 0
102 3386 626 1519 5633 236347 548275 60803 0
845425 851059 ESE 0
0 21 1421 1166 7809 10417 39314 182279 12192 3396 237181 247598 SE 0
0 20 65 548 5449 6082 340 2531 3615 2972 9458 15540 SSE 0
0 0
0 0
1375 1375 1271 3020 9496 4213 18001 19375 S
0 0
0 0
0 190 190 4256 11073 9450 0
24779 24969 SSW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1642 11188 61340 2715 76885 76885 SW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
583 23847 6159 162 30751 30751 WSW 0
8 0
0 0
0 8
2276 18677 5704 32191 58848 58856 W
26 318 0
21 0
543 908 5862 2830 11231 5821 25744 26652 WNW 232 435 3
17 27 4683 5397 9443 7034 27615 12825 56917 62314 NW 99 104 132 27 384 7562 8308 74 3616 12427 91330 107447 115755 NNW 0
0 19 518 1375 2530 4442 0
3905 8934 6556 19395 23836 TOTAL 453 1384 687 8938 6734 35345 53541 309704 819917 291474 232611 1653706 1707247
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-1 (Sheet 3 of 8)
RESIDENT POPULATION WITHIN 50 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 1981 SECTOR 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 TOTAL 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 TOTAL 10-50 TOTAL 0-50 N
0 186 343 906 2196 3310 6941 0
1526 40915 12892 55333 62274 NNE 0
178 70 379 383 424 1434 0
128 12382 13056 25566 27000 NE 63 172 6
22 4
0 267 0
0 9254 11605 20859 21126 ENE 33 0
0 2206 105 0
2344 8540 0
638 34402 43581 45925 E
0 0
103 3388 633 1552 5676 243904 547486 61915 0
853305 858982 ESE 0
0 29 1451 1171 7979 10630 40465 186443 12434 3483 242825 253455 SE 0
0 27 89 592 5569 6277 348 2606 3697 3005 9655 15932 SSE 0
0 0
0 0
1405 1405 1299 3056 9609 4236 18200 19605 S
0 0
0 0
0 195 195 4346 11184 9591 0
25120 25315 SSW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1662 11328 62379 2761 78129 78129 SW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
590 24180 6255 165 31190 31190 WSW 0
10 0
0 0
0 10 2283 18880 5749 32781 59694 59704 W
26 322 0
21 0
550 919 5880 2833 11310 5849 25873 26792 WNW 232 435 4
25 37 4746 5479 9476 7164 28271 12880 57791 63271 NW 99 104 142 37 392 7663 8437 75 3703 12729 92970 109477 117914 NNW 0
0 22 526 1377 2563 4488 0
3993 9136 6693 19822 24310 TOTAL 453 1407 746 9050 6890 35957 54503 318869 824510 296263 236779 1676421 1730924
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-1 (Sheet 4 of 8)
RESIDENT POPULATION WITHIN 50 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 1990 SECTOR 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 TOTAL 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 TOTAL 10-50 TOTAL 0-50 N
0 203 383 970 2325 3732 7613 0
1663 43870 13819 59352 66966 NNE 0
206 200 549 586 479 2020 0
137 14792 16008 30937 32956 NE 63 195 53 53 10 0
374 0
0 11515 14441 25956 26330 ENE 33 0
0 2206 105 0
2344 10733 0
794 42804 54331 56675 E
0 0
103 3429 672 1855 6059 311694 534702 71695 0
918091 924149 ESE 0
0 34 1718 1294 9536 12582 50763 224061 14493 4258 293575 306156 SE 0
0 27 204 967 6655 7853 415 3276 4397 3253 11341 19194 SSE 0
0 0
0 0
1679 1679 1553 3370 10598 4439 19960 21639 S
0 0
0 0
0 233 233 5162 12153 10868 0
28183 28416 SSW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1833 12563 71882 3184 89462 89462 SW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
651 27176 7125 190 35142 35142 WSW 0
10 0
0 0
0 10 2364 20675 6165 35194 64399 64409 W
26 322 0
21 0
620 989 6089 2879 12069 6155 27193 28182 WNW 232 435 30 179 559 5351 6786 9848 8410 34527 13043 65829 72615 NW 99 104 251 245 559 8640 9898 84 4529 15575 106973 127162 137060 NNW 0
0 63 643 1388 2890 4984 0
4827 11042 7953 23822 28807 TOTAL 453 1475 1144 10217 8465 41670 63424 401189 860423 341407 271715 1874734 1938158
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-1 (Sheet 5 of 8)
RESIDENT POPULATION WITHIN 50 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 2000 SECTOR 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 TOTAL 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 TOTAL 10-50 TOTAL 0-50 N
0 221 425 1037 2460 4134 8277 0
1852 48055 15116 65022 73299 NKE 0
235 335 725 798 530 2623 0
150 17850 19712 37712 40335 NE 63 219 102 85 16 0
485 0
0 14335 17978 32313 32798 ERE 33 0
0 2206 105 0
2344 12483 0
989 53292 66764 69108 E
0 0
103 3472 712 2179 6466 365840 530962 80110 0
976912 983378 ESE 0
0 39 1996 1422 11202 14659 59060 254707 16310 4908 334984 349643 SE 0
0 27 324 1358 7818 9527 488 3810 4987 3516 12800 22327 SSE 0
0 0
0 0
1972 1972 1824 3587 11280 4579 21270 23242 S
0 0
0 0
0 273 273 6023 12822 11711 0
30556 30829 SSW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1950 13406 78017 3457 96830 96830 SW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
693 29169 7688 207 37756 37756 WSW 0
10 0
0 0
0 10 2411 21918 6485 38159 68973 68983 W
26 322 0
21 0
687 1056 6235 2905 12731 6342 28213 29270 WNW 232 435 57 339 1103 5928 8094 10111 9675 40915 12985 73687 81781 NW 99 104 365 462 733 9571 11334 93 5418 18621 120272 144405 155739 NWW 0
0 106 765 1399 3201 5471 0
5859 13405 9515 28779 34250 TOTAL 453 1546 1559 11432 10106 47495 72591 467211 896241 383487 310038 2056977 2129568
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-1 (Sheet 6 of 8)
RESIDENT POPULATION WITHIN 50 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 2010 SECTOR 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 TOTAL 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 TOTAL 10-50 TOTAL 0-50 N
0 242 473 1115 2616 4580 9026 0
2066 52698 16565 71329 80355 NNE 0
269 491 929 1044 587 3320 0
165 21602 24302 46069 49389 NE 63 247 160 122 23 0
615 0
0 17848 22383 40231 40846 ENE 33 4
0 2206 105 0
2348 14512 0
1231 66349 82092 84440 E
0 0
103 3521 758 2559 6941 428617 527673 89823 0
1046113 1053055 ESE 0
0 45 2318 1570 13157 17090 68685 290310 18370 5655 383020 400110 SE 0
0 27 463 1812 9182 11484 573 4429 5660 3799 14462 25945 SSE 0
0 0
0 0
2316 2316 2143 3818 12004 4728 22692 25008 S
0 0
0 0
0 321 321 7031 13530 12618 0
33179 33500 SSW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
2076 14304 84677 3754 104810 104810 SW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
737 31308 8298 225 40568 40568 WSW 0
10 0
0 0
0 10 2459 23236 6821 41128 73644 73654 W
26 322 0
21 0
761 1130 6393 2933 13462 6543 29332 30462 WNW 232 435 88 526 1733 6567 9581 10393 11179 48537 12951 83059 92640 NW 99 104 496 714 934 10603 12950 103 6482 22265 135479 164329 177280 NNW 0
0 156 906 1412 3547 6021 0
7113 16275 11404 34792 40812 TOTAL 453 1633 2039 12841 12007 54180 83153 543723 938545 432188 355265 2269721 2352874
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-1 (Sheet 7 of 8)
RESIDENT POPULATION WITHIN 50 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 2020 SECTOR 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 TOTAL 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 TOTAL 10-50 TOTAL 0-50 N
0 266 529 1205 2798 5074 9872 0
2308 57859 18189 78356 88228 NNE 0
308 672 1168 1329 650 4127 0
180 26210 29993 56384 60512 NE 63 279 227 165 31 0
765 0
0 22221 27868 50089 50854 ENE 33 6
0 2206 105 0
2350 16864 0
1532 82605 101002 103352 E
0 0
103 3578 812 3007 7500 501407 524886 101026 0
1127319 1134819 ESE 0
0 52 2692 1742 15456 19942 79849 331655 20705 6513 438723 458665 SE 0
0 27 625 2339 10786 13777 673 5147 6432 4106 16357 30134 SSE 0
0 0
0 0
2721 2721 2517 4061 12771 4885 24234 26956 S
0 0
0 0
0 377 377 8213 14282 13595 0
36090 36467 SW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
2208 15258 91898 4075 113440 113440 SW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
784 33606 8959 244 43594 43594 WSW 0
10 0
0 0
0 10 2509 24633 7173 44353 78668 78678 W
26 322 0
21 0
844 1213 6561 2963 14274 6758 30556 31768 WNW 232 435 124 742 2467 7275 11275 10694 12966 57620 12966 94246 105521 NW 99 104 649 1006 1168 11746 14772 115 7756 26622 152910 187402 202174 NNW 0
0 214 1070 1428 3929 6641 0
8636 19757 13691 42084 48725 TOTAL 453 1730 2597 14478 14219 61865 95342 632395 988338 488655 409157 2518544 2613886
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-1 (Sheet 8 of 8)
RESIDENT POPULATION WITHIN 50 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 2030 SECTOR 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 TOTAL 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 TOTAL 10-50 TOTAL 0-50 N
0 299 606 1329 3046 5620 10900 0
2585 63602 20012 86199 97100 NNE 0
362 920 1493 1719 720 5214 0
197 31881 37052 69131 74345 NE 63 323 319 224 42 0
971 0
0 27666 34695 62361 63332 ENE 33 9
0 2206 105 0
2353 19592 0
1908 102844 124344 126697 E
0 0
103 3656 886 3532 8177 585801 522666 113943 0
1222410 1230587 ESE 0
0 62 3204 1977 18155 23398 92800 379657 23356 7502 503314 526713 SE 0
0 27 846 3062 12670 16605 791 5979 7314 4437 18522 35127 SSE 0
0 0
0 0
3196 3196 2956 4320 13584 5052 25912 29109 S
0 0
0 0
0 443 443 9598 15080 14647 0
39325 39768 SSW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
2348 16275 99737 4424 122785 12785 SW 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
834 36074 9677 265 46851 46851 WSW 0
10 0
0 0
0 10 2560 26113 7542 47859 84074 84084 W
26 322 0
21 0
934 1303 6741 2994 15176 6988 31900 33204 WMW 232 435 174 921 2650 8060 12472 11018 15089 68449 13032 107588 120059 NW 99 104 858 1405 1487 13012 16965 127 9279 31837 172941 214184 231148 NNW 0
0 293 1294 1449 4352 7388 0
10485 23986 16462 50932 58321 TOTAL 453 1864 3362 16599 16423 70695 109396 735167 1046794 554306 473566 2809833 2919229
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-2 TOWNS WITH OVER 1,000 PERSONS WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 Estimated 1960 1970 1977 Population Population Population St Charles Parish Hahnville 1,297 2,483 2,655 Killona NA NA 1,203 Luling 2,122 3,255 3,760 Mimosa Park NA 1,624 1,877 Norco 4,682 4,773 5,236 St. Rose 1,099 2,106 2,432 St John the Baptist Parish Garyville 2,389 2,474 2,710 Laplace 3,541 5,953 6,521 Reserve 5,297 6,381 6,990 Note:
1977 population estimates assume that the boundaries have remained the same as in 1970.
Sources:
1960 and 1970 data from: 1970 U S Census of Population, Number of Inhabitants, Louisiana, Table 10.
1977 data derived by methodologies described in Subsection 2.1.3.7.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-3 CITIES, TOWNS, AND COMMUNITIES WITH OVER 10,000 PERSONS WITHIN 50 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 City Estimated or 1960 1970 1977 Town Parish Population Population Population Baton Rouge East Baton NC 165,963 187,194 Rouge Bayou Cane Terrebonne 3,173 9,077 10,134 Gretna Jefferson 21,967 24,875 32,093 Hammond Tangipahoa NC 12,487 13,928 Harahan Jefferson 9,275 13,037 16,821 Houma Terrebonne NC 30,922 34,522 Jefferson Jefferson 19,353 16,489 14,484 Heights Kenner Jefferson NC 29,858 38,524 Little Farms Jefferson NA 15,713 20,273 Marrero Jefferson NA 29,015 37,436 Metairie Jefferson NA 106,523 137,438 Morgan City St Mary NC 16,586 18,527 New Orleans Orleans 627,525 593,471 562,560 Scotlandville East Baton NA 22,557 25,443 Rouge Slidell St. Tammany NC 16,101 19,586 Terrytown Jefferson NA 13,832 17,486 Thibodaux Lafourche NC 14,922 16,342 Westwego Jefferson NC 11,402 14,711 NA = Not available NC = Not comparable because of boundary changes Note: 1977 population estimates assume that the boundaries have remained the same as in 1970.
Sources:
1960 and 1970 data from: 1970 U S Census of Population, Number of Inhabitants, Louisiana, Table 10.
1977 data derived by methodologies described in Subsection 2.1.3.7.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-4 Revision 309 (06/16)
TOTAL ESTIMATED PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION 1977 AND 2030 (LBDCR 15-005, R309)
Activity 1977 2030 Transportation 78,598 65.8 214,749 72.1 Recreation 35,500 29.7 51,108 17.1 Industrial 5,348 4.5 32,153 10.8 Total 119,446 100.0 298,010 100.0 (LBDCR 15-005, R309)
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-5 (Sheet 1 of 8) 1977 PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3*
SECTOR 1977 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 375 269 29 46 775 2
613 326 939 ANNULUS 3
180 60 245 123 608 4
95 130 225 5
3,000 420 287 2,500 6,207 10 23 58 13,206 250 79 2,895 5,583 10000 32,094 Total 3,000 56 718 535 16,939 968 108 2,941 5,583 10000 40,848
- Does not include transient population related to transportation facilities
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-5 (Sheet 2 of 8) 1980 PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3*
SECTOR 1980 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 37 46 821 2
616 329 945 3
192 64 248 125 629 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
3,000 504 327 2,500 6,331 10 24 68 13,647 340 84 12 2,949 5,735 10396 33,255 Total 3,000 56 823 596 17,406 1,081 121 12 2,995 5,735 10396 42,221
- Does not include transient population related to transportation facilities
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-5 (Sheet 3 of 8) 1981 PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3*
SECTOR 1981 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 38 46 822 2
616 330 946 3
192 64 250 126 632 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
3,000 504 327 2,500 6,331 10 24 72 13,818 399 87 20 2,964 5,759 10557 33,700 Total 3,000 56 823 600 17,579 1,142 125 20 3,010 5,759 10557 42,671
- Does not include transient population related to transportation facilities
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-5 (Sheet 4 of 8) 1990 PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3*
SECTOR 1990 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 51 46 835 2
616 347 28 10 28 53 53 1,135 3
192 66 269 139 43 53 53 38 853 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
3,000 504 327 2,500 6,331 10 24 118 15,389 1,118 129 116 3,144 6,055 11,924 38,017 Total 3,000 56 823 648 19,169 1,891 208 10 43 197 3,296 6,146 11,924 47,411
- Does not include transient population related to transportation facilities
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-5 (Sheet 5 of 8) 2000 PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3*
SECTOR 2000 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 67 10 46 861 2
616 368 57 21 57 109 109 1,337 3
192 69 293 155 10 89 109 109 78 1,104 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
3,000 504 327 2,500 16 6,347 10 24 177 16,847 2,037 183 239 3,374 6,433 13,122 42,436 Total 3,000 56 823 710 20,651 2,863 317 31 89 405 3,638 6,620 13,122 52,325
- Does not include transient population related to transportation facilities
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-5 (Sheet 6 of 8) 2010 PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3*
SECTOR 2010 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 93 19 46 896 2
616 403 105 39 105 201 201 1,670 3
192 73 332 181 19 163 201 201 144 1,506 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
3,000 504 327 2,500 29 6,360 10 24 273 18,772 3,540 271 441 3,751 7,051 14,623 48,746 Total 3,000 56 823 810 22,615 4,440 488 58 163 747 4,199 7,396 14,623 59,418
- Does not include transient population related to transportation facilities
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-5 (Sheet 7 of 8) 2020 PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3*
SECTOR 2020 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 133 32 46 949 2
616 456 178 66 178 341 341 2,176 3
192 80 392 221 32 276 341 341 244 2,119 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
3,000 504 327 2,500 49 6,380 10 24 420 21,294 5,830 405 748 4,325 7,992 16,497 57,535 Total 3,000 56 823 964 25,197 6,843 748 98 276 1,267 5,053 8,577 16,497 69,399
- Does not include transient population related to transportation facilities
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-5 (Sheet 8 of 8) 2030 PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3*
SECTOR 2030 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 194 52 46 1,030 2
616 537 290 107 290 555 555 2,950 3
192 90 484 282 52 449 555 555 397 3,056 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
3,000 504 327 2,500 80 6,411 10 24 644 24,461 9,318 608 1,216 5,200 9,426 18,677 69,574 Total 3,000 56 823 1,198 28,456 10,504 1,144 159 449 2,061 6,356 10,378 18,677 83,261
- Does not include transient population related to transportation facilities
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-6 ESTIMATED AVERAGE SUNDAY PARTICIPATED IN RECREATIONAL ACTIVITY WITHIN TEN MILES OF WATERFORD 3 Activity Year 1977 1980 1981 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Boating 987 1047 1069 1295 1594 1062 2415 2973 Fishing 1653 1804 1863 2503 3463 4791 6629 9171 Swimming 1496 1617 1663 2168 2885 3839 5109 6799 Camping 423 457 470 613 815 1085 1445 1923 Walking 1911 2058 2117 2760 3569 4751 6323 8416 Horseback Riding 207 224 230 302 405 544 731 983 Golf 248 269 277 360 479 637 848 1128 Tennis 334 361 371 484 650 874 1174 1578 Motorcycling 410 443 456 594 798 1072 1140 1935 Bicycling 1259 1358 1398 1821 2447 3387 4553 6118 Picnicking 438 474 488 635 853 1146 1541 2071 Birdwatching 323 349 359 468 628 845 1135 1525 Driving 2251 2427 2500 3254 4373 5877 7898 10614 Play Baseball 523 564 580 757 1030 1385 1861 2501 Play Basketball 378 408 420 548 736 989 1330 1787 Play Volleyball 275 300 309 402 540 726 975 1310 Play Football 443 478 492 641 861 1157 1555 2090 Hunting 1034 1116 1149 1497 2011 2703 3633 4883 Watching Baseball 604 652 671 875 1175 1580 2123 2854 Watching Golf 57 62 63 83 111 149 200 269 Watching Auto Racing 86 93 95 125 168 225 302 406 Watching Tennis 150 134 135 145 157 170 180 199 Watching Horse Racing 151 163 168 219 294 395 531 714 Watch Outdoor Concert 72 78 80 105 141 189 254 342 Watching Football 703 797 813 986 1479 1821 2241 2758 Totals 16416 17733 18236 23640 31662 42299 56430 75247 Source: State of Louisiana, Outdoor Recreation Plan, State Parks and Recreation Commission, June 1974.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-7 (Sheet 1 of 8) 1977 COMBINED DAILY AND SEASONAL RECREATIONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 1977 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
2 3
ANNULUS 4
5 3,000 2,500 5,500 10 12,500 2,500 5,000 10,000 30,000 Total 3,000 15,000 2,500 5,000 10,000 35,500
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-7 (Sheet 2 of 8) 1980 COMBINED DAILY AND SEASONAL RECREATIONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 1980 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
2 3
ANNULUS 4
5 3,000 2,500 5,500 10 12,895 2,500 5,000 10,396 30,791 Total 3,000 15,395 2,500 5,000 10,396 36,291
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-7 (Sheet 3 of 8) 1981 COMBINED PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL RECREATIONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 1981 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
2 3
ANNULUS 4
5 3,000 2,500 5,500 10 13,041 2,500 5,000 10,542 31,083 Total 3,000 15,541 2,500 5,000 10,542 36,583
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-7 (Sheet 4 of 8) 1990 COMBINED PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL RECREATIONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 1990 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
2 3
4 ANNULUS 5
3,000 2,500 5,500 10 14,340 2,500 5,000 11,840 33,680 Total 3,000 16,840 2,500 5,500 11,840 39,180
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-7 (Sheet 5 of 8) 2000 COMBINED PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL RECREATIONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 2000 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
2 3
4 ANNULUS 5
3,000 2,500 5,500 10 15,450 2,500 5,000 12,950 35,900 Total 3,000 17,950 2,500 5,000 12,950 41,400
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-7 (Sheet 6 of 8) 2010 COMBINED PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL RECREATIONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 2010 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
2 3
ANNULUS 5
5 3,000 2,500 5,500 10 16,805 2,500 5,000 14,306 38,611 Total 3,000 19,305 2,500 5,000 14,306 44,111
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-7 (Sheet 7 of 8) 2020 Revision 309 (06/16)
COMBINED PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL RECREATIONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR (LBDCR 15-005, R309) 2020 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
2 3
4 ANNULUS 5
3,000 2,500 5,500 10 18,459 2,500 5,000 15,960 41,919 Total 3,000 20,959 2,500 5,000 15,960 47,419 (LBDCR 15-005, R309)
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-7 (Sheet 8 of 8) 2030 COMBINED PEAK DAILY AND SEASONAL RECREATIONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 2030 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
2 3
4 ANNULUS 5
3,000 2,500 5,500 10 20,304 2,500 5,000 17,804 45,608 Total 3,000 22,804 2,500 5,000 17,804 51,108
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-8 TRANSPORTATION TRANSIENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 (Passengers per day)
Highways 1977 1980 1981 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Int 10 16,092 16,683 17,087 19,040 21,473 24,217 27,312 30,803 La 18 4,393 4,554 4,609 5,136 5,792 6,532 7,367 8,309 La 44 2,333 2,419 2,448 2,728 3,077 3,470 3,913 4,413 La 48 4,833 5,011 5,072 5,652 6,374 7,189 8,108 9,144 La 49 5,319 5,514 5,581 6,219 7,014 7,910 8,921 10,061 La 53 4,947 5,129 5,191 5,784 6,523 7,357 8,297 9,357 La 54 1,081 1,121 1,135 1,265 1,427 1,609 1,815 2,047 Int 55 NA NA NA 10,900 12,293 13,864 15,636 17,635 US 61 13,024 13,503 13,666 15,228 17,174 19,369 21,844 24,636 US 90 12,304 12,756 14,214 16,031 18,080 20,391 22,997 25,936 Int 410 NA 12,400 13,985 15,772 17,788 La 626 2,114 2,192 2,219 2,473 2,789 3,145 3,547 4,000 La 628 3,099 3,213 3,252 3,624 3,681 4,151 4,682 5,280 La 3127 1,012 1,049 1,062 1,183 1,334 1,504 1,696 1,913 Sub Total 70,551 73,144 75,536 95,263 119,431 134,693 151,907 171,322
- Ships, Including Ferries 7,514 8,210 8,456 11,144 14,977 20,128 27,050 36,354 Rail 533 617 647 1,005 1,637 2,666 4,342 7,073 Total 78,598 1,971 84,639 107,412 136,045 157,487 183,299 214,749 NA Not Available.
Highway not completed.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-9 (Sheet 1 of 8) 1977 PEAK DAILY INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 1977 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 375 269 29 46 775 2
613 326 939 3
180 60 245 123 608 ANNULUS 4
95 130 225 5
420 287 707 10 23 58 706 250 79 395 583 2,094 Total 56 718 535 1,939 968 108 451 583 5,348
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-9 (Sheet 2 of 8) 1980 PEAK DAILY INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 1980 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 37 46 821 2
616 329 945 3
192 64 248 125 629 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
504 327 831 10 24 68 752 340 84 12 449 735 2,464 Total 56 823 596 2,011 1,081 121 12 495 735 5,930
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-9 (Sheet 3 of 8) 1981 PEAK DAILY INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 1981 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 38 46 822 2
616 330 946 3
192 64 250 126 632 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
504 327 831 10 24 72 777 399 87 20 464 759 15 2,617 Total 56 823 600 2,038 1,142 125 20 510 759 15 6,088
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-9 (Sheet 4 of 8) 1990 PEAK DAILY INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 1990 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 51 46 835 2
616 347 28 10 28 53 53 1,135 3
192 66 269 139 43 53 53 38 853 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
504 327 831 10 24 118 1,049 1,118 129 116 644 1,055 84 4,337 Total 56 823 648 2,329 1,891 208 10 43 197 796 1,146 84 8,231
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-9 (Sheet 5 of 8) 2000 PEAK DAILY INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 2000 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 67 10 46 861 2
616 368 57 21 57 109 109 1,137 3
192 69 293 155 10 89 109 109 78 1,104 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
504 327 16 847 10 24 177 1,397 2,037 183 239 874 1,433 172 6,536 Total 56 823 710 2,701 2,863 317 31 89 405 1,138 1,620 172 10,925
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-9 (Sheet 6 of 8) 2010 PEAK DAILY INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 2010 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 93 19 46 896 2
616 403 105 39 105 201 201 1,670 3
192 73 332 181 19 163 201 201 144 1,506 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
504 327 29 860 10 24 273 1,967 3,540 271 441 1,251 2,051 317 10,135 Total 56 823 810 3,310 4,440 488 58 163 747 1,699 2,396 317 15,307
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-9 (Sheet 7 of 8) 2020 PEAK DAILY INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 2020 N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW TOTAL 1
56 395 287 133 32 46 949 2
616 456 178 66 178 341 2,176 3
192 80 392 221 32 276 341 341 244 2,119 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
504 327 49 880 10 24 420 2,835 5,830 405 748 1,825 2,992 537 15,616 Total 56 823 964 4,238 6,843 748 98 276 1,267 2,553 3,577 537 21,980
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-9 (Sheet 8 of 8) 2030 PEAK DAILY INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 SECTOR 2030 N
NNE NE ENE E
W WNW NW NN W
TOTAL 1
56 395 387 194 52 46 1,030 2
616 537 290 107 290 555 555 2,950 3
192 90 484 282 52 449 555 397 3,056 ANNULUS 4
103 137 240 5
504 327 80 911 10 24 644 4,157 9,318 608 1,216 2,700 4,426 873 23,966 Total 56 823 1,198 5,652 10,504 1,144 159 449 2,061 3,856 5,378 873 32,153
- Blank spaces means zero population
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-12 MAJOR TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES WITHIN THE LPZ Average Number of Nearest Distance Persons per Day Facility to Site (miles)
(1977)
La Highway 18 0.1 4,393(1)
La Highway 628 0.7 3,099(1)
La Highway 3127 1.0 1,012(1)
Mississippi River 0.2 3,962(2)(3)*
Missouri Pacific R R 0.5 72(4)
(1)
Department of Transportation and Development Office of Highways, Baton Rouge, La., 1977.
(2)
U.S. Department of the Army, Waterborne Commerce of the United States, Part 2, Waterways and Harbors, Gulf Coast, Mississippi River System, Antilles, New Orleans, La., 1976.
(3)
Personal Communication: New Orleans-Baton Rouge Steamship Pilots Association, New Orleans, La., June 1977; Delta Queen Steamboat Co., Cincinnati, Ohio, June 1977; Arkansas Explorer, Little Rock, Arkansas, June 1977; Dock Board, Port of New Orleans, New Orleans, La.,
June 1977.
(4)
Personal Communication, Missouri Pacific Railroad, Avondale, La., June 1977.
- Represents a peak daily, not an average number.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-13 1977 PEAK DAILY POPULATION DISTRIBUTION WITHIN THE LOW POPULATION ZONE By Annular Sector Annulus N
NNE NE ENE E
WNW NW NNW Totals Resident Population Mile 1 0
0 63 33 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 26 232 99 0
453 Mile 2 171 154 150 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
307 435 104 0
1,321 Sub Total 171 154 213 33 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 333 667 203 0
1,774 Transient Population Mile 1 0
46 0
0 0
375 269 29 0
0 0
0 0
32 0
0 751 Mile 2 0
0 0
0 0
613 326 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
939 Sub Total 0
46 0
0 0
988 595 29 0
0 0
0 0
32 0
0 1,690 Peak Daily*
Population Mile 1 0
46 63 33 0
375 269 29 0
0 0
0 26 264 99 0
1,204 Mile 2 171 154 150 0
0 613 326 0
0 0
0 0
307 435 104 0
2,260 Sector Totals 171 200 213 33 0
988 595 29 0
0 0
0 333 699 203 0
3,464
- Combination of resident and average daily transient population.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-14
SUMMARY
COMPARISON OF DEMOGRAPHIC METHODOLOGIES Population Estimates and Projections Prepared Basis of Population Methodology For Estimates & Projections Methodology Summary Annular University of New
-Parish subdivisions (U.S.
Sectors Orleans population Census) taken as percent 5 to 50 projections by Parish of 1970 parish popu-miles to the year 2000; lations; resultant factors from interpolations and applied to parish popula-A plant; extrapolations of tion estimates for 1977 and Total those figures.
projection years to 2030.
area
-Allocation of population within to annular sectors based 5 miles upon measurement of area of plant of parish subdivisions within each annular sector.
Annular Total population
-Allocation of population Sectors within 5 miles to annular sectors based within of plant as esti-upon relative suitability B
5 miles mated and projected of land for future resi-of plant in Methodology A.
dential development.
-Factors defining relative suitability included: ac-cessibility to New Orleans soils capability, flood hazard, present use, zon-ing, public services.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-15 CORRELATION AND REGRESSION OF GROWTH RATES VERSUS DEVELOPMENT SUITABILITY WITHIN FIVE MILES OF WATERFORD 3, 1973-1977 Change in Number of Change in Average Dwelling Units, Dwelling Units Development Area 1973-1977 per Unit of Area*
Suitability LaPlace
+223
+7.99 1.1 Lucy-Edgard
+45
+1.79 8.5 Killona
+61
+3.65 7.3 Hahnville
+157
+6.38 4.7 Regression equation: Y = 9.37 -.818 X Correlation coefficient: r = -.969 One unit of area = approximately 91.8 acres.
Sources:
1977 dwelling unit count from analysis of aerial photography and field checks 1973 dwelling unit counts estimated from information contained in:
Population Study, St. Charles Parish, Louisiana, N-Y Associates, Metairie, La., February 1974.
Population Study, St. John the Baptist Parish, Louisiana, N-Y Associates, Metairie, La., February 1974.
WSES-FSAR-UNIT-3 TABLE 2.1-16 PROBABILITY OF RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN DIFFERENT LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT SUITABILITY Level of Probability of Development Residential Development Suitability(1) 1977-1981 1990-2020(2) 2030(3) 1 16.7%
24.5%
29.9%
2 15.2%
22.3%
26.4%
3 13.7%
20.1%
23.8%
4 12.1%
17.7%
20.9%
5 10.6%
15.5%
0 6
9.1%
0 0
7 7.6%
0 0
8 6.0%
0 0
9 4.5%
0 0
10 2.9%
0 0
11 1.4%
0 0
12 0.2%
0 0
(1)
The lowest number = the highest development suitability.
(2)
Land within levels of development suitability 6-12 was not available after 1981 because of highway improvements which changed the levels of suitability throughout the study area. The probabilities were accordingly re-calculated.
(3)
Land within suitability level 5 was considered used up after 2020.