ML12339A475
| ML12339A475 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 03/30/2012 |
| From: | Dennis M, Heames T, Osborn D, Weiner R Sandia |
| To: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| SECY RAS | |
| References | |
| RAS 22152, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01 | |
| Download: ML12339A475 (5) | |
Text
United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.
In the Matter of:
(Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)
ASLBP #: 07-858-03-LR-BD01 NRC000051 Docket #: 05000247 l 05000286 Exhibit #: NRC000051-00-BD01 Identified: 10/15/2012 Submitted: March 30, 2012 Admitted: 10/15/2012 Withdrawn:
Rejected: Stricken:
Other:
ECONOMIC COSTS FROM A RADIOLOGICAL TRANSPORTATION ACCIDENT Douglas M. Osborn, Ruth F. Weiner, Matthew L. Dennis, and Terence J. Heames Sandia National Laboratories: P.O. Box 5800, Mail Stop 0718, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0718 With the increased use of nuclear power and nuclear Post-accident costs considered are the cost of building medicine, transportation of radioactive materials along and road cleanup, soil disposal, agricultural sequestration, highways and railways has become commonplace. In an and emergency evacuation, as financed by the federal accident involving a vehicle transporting radioactive government through the Federal Emergency Management materials, a release of radioactive materials may occur. Agency (FEMA) loans and grants3. Political, social, and Following such a release, a need exists to decontaminate psychological costs are not included.
the affected areas and to evacuate persons. It is useful to Buildings and roads are decontaminated by washing know the post-accident costs in order to project the deposited radioactive compounds from contaminated economic impact of a radiological transportation surfaces. The contaminated water is collected on accident. The radiological transportation risk & adsorption resins, which are disposed as low-level consequence program, RADTRAN, has recently added an radioactive waste. It is assumed that all roads and other updated economic costing model to it most recent version, horizontal surfaces are contaminated. Building sides, RADTRAN 6.0. This paper discusses the analysis used in however, are vertical and the entire vertical surface would the RADTRAN economic model. An earlier version, RADTRAN 4.0, calculates a cost of post-accident cleanup, not be contaminated. Depending on the location of the but the model was not scenario-specific. The paper is release, orientation of the building(s), and height of the intended to better account for variations such as building(s), different fractions of the buildings exposed radioactive material cleanup level, type of cleanup, and surface area will be contaminated.
land use.
II. SCENARIO I. INTRODUCTION There has been concern since the 1970s that a spent An accidental release of radionuclides during fuel shipment could be attacked using a High Energy transportation could require evacuation of the population Density Device (HEDD). Recent studies suggest that the and decontamination of the affected area. The economic affected contamination area could be 10 square kilometers model in RADTRAN 6 estimates the cost of evacuation (3.9 square miles) or more with costs ranging from $668 million to $10 billion for cleanup costs1.
and decontamination.
Using the assumption of 10 square kilometers for a The cost of decontamination depends on the size of the contamination area, RADTRAN calculations were release, the number of people and land area affected by conducted using the default economic input values, and the release, the activity of the released material, and the the following input data:
goal cleanup level. The values of these input parameters are either defined by the analyst or default x The curie content of a PWR fuel assembly from the values in RADTRAN using user-defined inputs. Lower Yucca Mountain EIS6 Table A-12 was adjusted limit and upper limit values and average values, based on according to the radionuclides mass fraction to data and observations, are provided for many user-defined account for the total mass swept out of the cask due variables. to a HEDD attack on a truck transportation cask.
x The HEDD swept mass was determined from Table The categories of parameter values are: 5-64 of the page 187 of the transportation health and x Building Cleanup safety calculation/analysis documentation5.
o Residential x The swept mass per assembly was assumed to be the o Commercial maximum, 9.6 kg.
o Industrial x The number of assemblies penetrated was determined x Road Cleanup from Table 5-645 to be two.
x Soil Cleanup x This analysis used the swept mass value 19.2 kg.
x Agricultural Damage o Crops o Livestock x Evacuation and Emergency
Table 1 lists the chemical/physical group, activity in C-14 Particulate 1.33E-02 2.99E-03 1.56E-07 curies, swept mass in grams, and mass fraction for each Y-90 Particulate 1.60E+03 2.93E-03 1.53E-07 radionuclide for the 19.2 kg swept mass. The Cd-113m Particulate 5.33E-01 2.29E-03 1.19E-07 radionuclides in Table 1 are listed in order of decreasing mass fraction. The radionuclides Se-79 and Nb-93m were H-3 Gas 8.88E+00 9.25E-04 4.82E-08 not included in this analysis since they are not in the Fe-55 Particulate 1.78E+00 7.37E-04 3.84E-08 RADTRAN internal radionuclide library. The Co-60 Crud 3.91E-01 3.46E-04 1.80E-08 radionuclide Ba-137m has been incorporated in the Cs- (Crud) 137 radionuclide in the RADTRAN radionuclide library. Th-230 Particulate 4.40E-06 2.18E-04 1.13E-08 U-233 Particulate 1.42E-06 1.47E-04 7.65E-09 TABLE 1: 19.2 kg Swept Mass Radionuclides List Ru-106 Volatile 4.88E-01 1.46E-04 7.59E-09 Chem./Phys. Activity Mass Cm-242 Particulate 2.62E-01 7.92E-05 4.12E-09 Nuclide Mass (g)
Group (Ci) Fraction U-232 Particulate 1.07E-03 4.98E-05 2.59E-09 U-238 Particulate 6.22E-03 1.85E+04 9.64E-01 Pa-231 Particulate 1.47E-06 3.10E-05 1.62E-09 U-235 Particulate 3.91E-04 1.81E+02 9.42E-03 Ac-227 Particulate 5.77E-07 7.98E-09 4.16E-13 U-236 Particulate 8.44E-03 1.30E+02 6.79E-03 Pu-239 Particulate 7.99E+00 1.29E+02 6.70E-03 For this analysis, it is assumed that all the Co-60 Pu-240 Particulate 1.38E+01 6.04E+01 3.14E-03 released will behave as one chemical/physical group, Cs-137 Volatile 2.31E+03 2.65E+01 1.38E-03 Crud, although most of the Co-60 mass is structural Tc-99 Particulate 4.04E-01 2.38E+01 1.24E-03 material. It is further assumed that the radionuclides in Am-241 Particulate 6.66E+01 1.94E+01 1.01E-03 the chemical/physical groups Volatile, Gas, and Iodine will either have no deposition velocity (Gas) or such a Zr-93 Particulate 4.35E-02 1.73E+01 9.03E-04 small deposition velocity that they will not be included in Pu-242 Particulate 6.66E-02 1.70E+01 8.85E-04 the cleanup costs since they will be below the minimum Pu-241 Particulate 1.73E+03 1.68E+01 8.76E-04 cleanup levels. Thus the only radionuclides analyzed are Np-237 Particulate 1.11E-02 1.57E+01 8.20E-04 those in the chemical/physical groups for Crud and Cs-135 Volatile 1.69E-02 1.47E+01 7.64E-04 Particulate.
Sr-90 Particulate 1.60E+03 1.17E+01 6.08E-04 The default value for cleanup level2 (0.2 PCi/m2) was Pu-238 Particulate 1.15E+02 6.75E+00 3.52E-04 kept constant for all radionuclides analyzed. To better understand this cleanup level, a beta/gamma or alpha Pd-107 Particulate 3.46E-03 6.74E+00 3.51E-04 contamination field instrument would determine this I-129 Iodine 9.77E-04 5.52E+00 2.87E-04 contamination level to be 4,400 dpm/100cm2.
U-234 Particulate 2.98E-02 4.76E+00 2.48E-04 Deposition velocities were determined using the Am-243 Particulate 8.88E-01 4.46E+00 2.32E-04 following equation:
Sn-126 Particulate 1.64E-02 1.34E+00 6.96E-05 gd 2 U Ni-59 Particulate 8.44E-02 1.04E+00 5.43E-05 Vd (1) 18P Cm-244 Particulate 7.99E+01 9.88E-01 5.15E-05 Where:
Sm-151 Particulate 1.07E+01 4.05E-01 2.11E-05 Vd = deposition velocity (cm/s)
Eu-154 Particulate 6.66E+01 2.52E-01 1.31E-05 g = gravity (cm/s2)
Kr-85 Gas 9.77E+01 2.49E-01 1.29E-05 d = aerodynamic particle diameter (cm)
Nb-94 Particulate 3.60E-02 1.91E-01 9.97E-06 U= density (g/cm3)
Ni-63 Particulate 1.11E+01 1.88E-01 9.77E-06 P = dynamic viscosity for 25 oC dry air (g/cm-s)
Pm-147 Particulate 7.55E+01 8.14E-02 4.24E-06 Cm-245 Particulate 1.29E-02 7.49E-02 3.90E-06 It was assumed that the mean aerodynamic particle Co-60 diameter a is 13.5 Pm. It was also assumed that all Crud 4.88E+01 4.32E-02 2.25E-06 radionuclides in the chemical/physical group Particulate (Structure)
Am-242m Particulate 3.20E-01 3.29E-02 1.71E-06 had the same density as uranium dioxide (10.96 g/cm3).
Cs-134 Volatile 3.20E+01 2.48E-02 1.29E-06 This results in a deposition velocity of 4.91 cm/s for the Chemical/Physical group Crud and a deposition velocity Eu-155 Particulate 9.77E+00 2.10E-02 1.09E-06 of 6.10 cm/s for the Chemical/Physical group Particulate.
Cm-246 Particulate 4.04E-03 1.32E-02 6.86E-07 Cm-243 Particulate 5.77E-01 1.12E-02 5.83E-07 a The mean aerodynamic particle diameter is the diameter Cl-36 Volatile 2.80E-04 8.48E-03 4.42E-07 that the particle would have if it were a sphere of density Sb-125 Particulate 5.33E+00 5.17E-03 2.69E-07 1 gm/cm3.
The analysis determined the economic cleanup costs Rural industrial land 0.01 for three population zones: Rural, Suburban, and Urban. use fraction The population densities within each of these zones were Suburban industrial 0.09 assumed to be the national averages as cited in the RadCat land use fraction 2.3 User guide7: Urban industrial land 0.11 use fraction Rural residential land x Rural - 6 persons/km2 use fraction 0.03 x Suburban - 720 persons/km2 Suburban residential 0.28 x Urban - 3800 persons/km2 land use fraction Urban residential land 0.24 It is assumed that the entire swept volume is released, use fraction aerosolized, and respirable. The RADTRAN calculations Rural soil land use 0.95 were conducted for a ground level release using fraction RADTRANs National Weather Average. This release Suburban soil land use 0.41 fraction provided a contamination area of 10.3 km2 in which the Urban soil land use contamination level is greater than the cleanup level. fraction 0.09 Fraction of building II.A. Economic Input Defaults 0.449 surfaces contaminated Rural soil land use The RADTRAN economic input defaults4 are 0.2 fraction for crops provided in Table 2. The defaults were determined Rural soil land use 0.28 through experimentation, modeling, data analysis, and fraction for livestock conservative estimates. These inputs can be varied by the Average commercial 16.40 m RADTRAN user. building outside height Average industrial 6.05 m building outside height Average residential TABLE 2: Economic Model Input Default Values 5.32 m building outside height Average Description Units Rural road density 5.97E-04 m of road/m2 of land Value Footprint of Suburban road density 8.11E-04 m of road/m2 of land 337 m2 commercial buildings urban road density 8.06E-02 m of road/m2 of land Footprint of industrial 2 6620 m Resin density 1.28 g/cm3 buildings Footprint of residential Road width 8.84 m 118 m2 buildings Cost of soil removal 10 $/m3 Area of commercial 2 930 m Contaminated soil lots 0.03 m depth Area of industrial lots 9700 m2 Bi-annual profit from 0.02499 $/m2 Area of residential lots 223 m2 livestock External dose rate per Volume of waste 5.0 mrem/hour 0.2167 m3 drum of resin container External dose rate for 1 269.7 mrem/hour Ci of Co-60 in a drum Annual crop profit 0.01303 $/m2 III. RESULTS Cost of washing 32.29 $/m2 The results for the scenario combined the following contaminated area Rural evacuation cost 7.88 $/person-km2 economic cleanup costs to calculate the total cost of Suburban evacuation cleanup:
13.61 $/person-km2 cost Urban evacuation cost 13.61 $/person-km2 x The cost of decontaminating all buildings, roads and Rural commercial land parking lots using a liquid wash down method and 0.01 passing the liquid through resin columns to remove use fraction Suburban commercial all contaminates.
0.14 x The cost of resin disposal as Class-A waste.
land use fraction Urban commercial land x The cost of agricultural and residential soil removal 0.37 use fraction as Class-A waste.
x The cost of crop and livestock sequestering for rural Release Height = 1.5 m areas only. Heat Released = 0.0 cal/s x The cost of evacuation for the affected population. Source Radius = 1.5 m Source Length = 3.0 m The RADTRAN results produced contamination Wind Speed = 1.0 m/s levels greater than cleanup level out to about 11.1 km Anemometer Height = 10.0 m downwind of the event for a contaminated area a little Ambient Temperature = 298.0 K larger than 10.3 km2 and thus comparable to the assumed Atmospheric Mixing Height = 5,000 m 10 km2 contaminated area cited in Reference 1. Table 3 Rain Fall Rate = 0.0 mm/s provides the total cost of cleanup for the swept mass for Dispersion Model - Pasquill all three population areas. Stability Class - D Release Location - Rural TABLE 3: Economic Cleanup Cost Results The rural release location was selected because it adds (in millions of dollars) conservatism in the atmospheric modeling.
Costs Rural Suburban Urban Table 4 provides the cleanup results and the Resin Cost $22.5 $219.5 $751.9 contamination area greater than the cleanup level for a 19.2 kg swept mass release for the National Weather Decon Wash Down Cost $15.7 $153.5 $526.7 Average dilution factors and ground level User-Defined Soil Removal Cost $1.6 $1.7 $0.28 dilution factors.
Crop/Livestock Cost $0.094 $0.00 $0.00 Evacuation Cost $0.002 $0.40 $2.1 Total Cost $39.9 $375.1 $1,281.0 TABLE 4: National Weather Average vs. User-Defined National Average Weather Results National Weather Average A second iteration of the RADTRAN Economic Model Rural Suburban Urban was conducted to try to determine the amount of swept Total Cost material that would be needed to produce about $10 ($106) $39.9 $375.1 $1,281.0 billion in clean up for an urban area. With the same Cleanup assumptions listed in this paper, it would take about 160 10.3 km2 10.3 km2 10.3 km2 Area kg (about 1/3 of a PWR fuel assembly) of swept material to produce a total cleanup cost of about $9.2 billion. With User-Defined such a large amount of material released, the cleanup area was determined to be about 55.2 km2 with a downwind Rural Suburban Urban distance of ~21.3 km for a contamination area greater Total Cost
$33.9 $317.6 $1,084.2 than the cleanup level. ($106)
Cleanup 9.5 km2 9.5 km2 9.5 km2 III.A. Results for Elevated Releases Area The preceding RADTRAN simulations used a ground level release with National Weather Average Weather Table 4 shows that the cleanup cost differences for the dilution factors. User-defined weather conditions allow National Weather Average compared to the User-Defined analysis of an elevated release as well as a ground level inputs between population zones range from 8% in release. The material reaching the ground from an suburban areas to 7% in rural areas when adjusted for the elevated release is more dilute, but the area covered is difference in cleanup area.
larger, so elevated releases were also investigated. For Table 5 provides the RADTRAN economic cleanup comparison, User-Defined weather conditions simulating costs with the same User-Defined weather but with National Weather Average conditions as nearly as physical release heights of 10.0 and 50.0 meters. The possible were investigated, as well as an elevated release. assumed physical release heights also include the thermal The User-Defined weather inputs required to produce the buoyancy that would be expected from an HEDD attack ground level release results in Table 4 are the following: on a truck cask.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TABLE 5: Economic Cleanup Cost Results for an Elevated Release (in millions of dollars) The authors would like to acknowledge the 10 meter release height management support of Ken B. Sorenson and Jeffrey J.
Rural Suburban Urban Danneels, as well as the management support of the Resin Cost $24.1 $235.2 $806.7 Offices of Environmental Management and Civilian Decon Wash Down Radioactive Waste Management of the U. S. Department Cost $29.1 $283.7 $973.4 of Energy.
Soil Removal Cost $2.9 $3.1 $0.51 REFERENCES Crop/Livestock Cost $0.17 $0.00 $0.00 Evacuation Cost $0.003 $0.53 $2.8 1. Ballard, J.D., R.J., Halstead, F., Dilger, and H.,
Total Cost $56.3 $522.5 $1,783.4 Collins, 2007, Yucca Mountain Transportation Security Issues: Overview and Update, Waste 50 meter release height Management Conference Paper, February 25 - March Rural Suburban Urban 1, 2007, Tucson, AZ.
- 2. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), 1977, Resin Cost $24.5 $238.9 $819.2 Decon Wash Down Proposed Guidance on Dose Limits for Persons Cost $103.1 $1,005.9 $3,451.2 Exposed to Transuranic Elements in the General Environment, EPA-520/4-77-016, U.S.
Soil Removal Cost $10.3 $11.0 $1.8 Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
Crop/Livestock Cost $0.62 $0.00 $0.00 3. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 7 Evacuation Cost $0.03 $6.6 $35.1 March 2003, Storms 10th Anniversary Recalls Total Cost $138.6 $1,262.4 $4,307.3 Nearly $110 Million in Federal/State Disaster Assistance: County-by-County Disaster Aid Breakdown, release number RIV-03-29.
A comparison of Table 4 and 5 shows that the elevated 4. Osborn, D.M., et al., 2007, An Economic Model for releases cause the cleanup costs to increase and in the RADTRAN, SAND2007-7120, Sandia National case of the 50 meter release height, markedly, because Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM.
higher releases result in larger contaminated areas. A 5. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2001, 19.0 km2 contaminated area with a downwind release of Calculation/Analysis Document, Transportation 12.3 km was calculated for the 10 meter release height. A Health and Safety Calculation/Analysis 67.5 km2 contaminated area with a downwind release of Documentation in Support of the Final EIS for the 23.9 km was calculated for the 50 meter release height. Yucca Mountain Repository, CAL-HSS-ND-The increased cleanup area accounts for the increased 0000003, DOE/FEIS-0150, DOE, Washington D.C.
costs for all the population zones. 6. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2002, "Final Environmental Impact Statement for a Geologic IV. CONCLUSIONS Repository for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Contamination from an elevated release is more Mountain, Nye County, Nevada," DOE/EIS-0250F, widespread than that from a ground level release. Since DOE, Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste the area to be decontaminated is the most important factor Management, Washington D. C.
in the cleanup cost calculation, the highest release height 7. Weiner, R.F., et al., 2006, RadCat 2.3 User Guide, in an urban area studied, 50 meters, results in a cost of SAND2006-6315, Sandia National Laboratories,
$4.31 billion. Cleanup costs depend on a number of Albuquerque, NM.
factors in addition to meteorology including whether the contaminating event is in an urban, suburban, or rural area, the amount of material released, height of the release, the particular radionuclides being dispersed, and the activity of those radionuclides. The RADTRAN default input variables are also an integral part of such a calculation.